Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1972
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APRIL
1972
DATA THROUGH MARCH
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
Bureau of
Economic Analysis
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areMorton Somer-Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
Editorial assistance is provided by Maureen Padgett of
the Publications Services Division, Social and
Economic Statistics Administration.
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data Is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Peter G. Peterson, Secretary
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
and Administrator,
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
George Hay Brown, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
NATIONAL
INCOM£AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coincicters, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have a/so proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing).
Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payaoie
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office,
New Features and Changes for This Issue
iii
METHOD OF
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
APRIL
1972
Data Through March
Series ESI No. 72-4
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
; AMD INTENTIONS
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services ..
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Economic Process and
Employment and Unemployment
20
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . . 23
Fixed Capital Investment
25
Inventories and Inventory Investment
28
Prices, Costs, and Profits
30
Money and Credit
33
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
37
39
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
43
46
Foreign Trade
48
Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
Wages and Productivity
58
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 60
Actual and Potential Gross National Product ... 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
66
67
68
PART it. TABLES
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
All
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
B3
B4
B5
B6
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Composite I ndexes
PART III.
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
IE1
f:2
74
76
77
78
79
81
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
84
85
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B2
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
83
_E3.
E:4
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion I ndexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
103
103
104
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See March 1972 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970, . .
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See Feb. 1972 issue)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
108
109
114
115
116
119
122
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
1. A new section (D6) on Civilian labor force and major
components is introduced in this issue. This new section (series
Nos. 8^1-848) includes data on total civilian labor force, total
number of employed persons, total number of unemployed persons,
and unemployment rates for males 20 years and over, females 20
years and over, both sexes 16-19 years of age, white persons, and
Negro and other races.
2. The series on Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (series 33) has been
revised for the year 1971 to reflect the source agency's annual
updating of these data.
3« Changes over 4-quarter spans are now included in section D5
for the series on average hourly compensation, total private
economy (series 74-5 and 746) and the series on output per man-hour,
total private economy (series 770).
4« The series on vacancy rate in rental housing (series 857)
has been revised by the source agency to reflect the inclusion of
all rental housing. Previously, housing rated as dilapidated were
excluded. This revision affects data for the period 1970 to date.
Further information may be obtained from the U.S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Housing Division.
5. Measures of variability for the new series on Civilian
labor force and major components (section D6) are included in
appendix A.
6. Appendix C includes historical data for series 17, 745, 746,
770, and 841-848.
7. Appendix D includes descriptions for series 40, 42, 43, 44*
and 841-848.
Announcement
A new alphabetical Index—Series Unding Guide will be
introduced in the May issue. This new index will
replace the current economic process index and will
facilitate the location of data in BCD,
The May issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release
on May 31.
iii
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, new/y available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonaf adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
resuit in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
4 SESA PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current bus/ness
conditions and prospects is
the national income mode/,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on ith©
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time serins
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections ts described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years, Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( BE A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments isprovided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a fist of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report .uses tha same classification groupings. The diiagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 {without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(13 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive incorm
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations Cwhat they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).! Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis
publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP^ In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate, Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
Lit.!
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial, production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Basic Data
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
mor
M for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
•g Roman number indicates latest
^/ quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2J/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
1971
4th 0
1970
IstQ
1971
Percent change
2dQ
1971
3dQ
4th Q
1971
1971
IstQ
1972
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
3dQ
to
4th Q
1971
4th 0
to
IstQ
1972
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate, bil.dol. 929.1
do
724.7
1958=100 . . . . 128.2
Ann. rate, dol... 4 1585
do
3*576
974.1 1046.8
988.4 1020.8 1040.0 1053.4 1072.9 1103.2
729.7
735.8 740.7
751.3
761.0
715.9
138,1
720-0
739.4
135.3
141.6
4*755
3*515
5*057
3i571
4*804
795.9
803.6
687.8
851.1
741.3
802,1
816.7
701.5
531.5
550.6
3t358
3*581
2*595
615.8
139,9
1.3
0.7
0.6
1«0
0.4
1.9
1,4
0,4
1.6
1,2
2.8
1.3
1.5
2.6
1.1
200
205
210
215
217
0.9
It3
1.2
0*5
1.7
1.4
0.9
0.5
NA
2.6
1.4
0.4
220
222
224
225
0.6
1.2
226
0.3
0.2
227
1.9
0.9
3.3
5.2
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
141,3
5*030
3i559
142.2
5*082
3*573
142,8
5.163
3.615,
855.2
864.6
748,5
553.2
NA
876.7
755.0
532.5
847.3
853.4
739.6
550.5
870.1
833.5
722.0
542.7
556.1
899,9
765,7
558,5
3*410
3*500
3t577
3*611
3t633
3*677
1.0
2t660
2*588
2*631
2*663
2*669
2*676
2*682
0.2
662.1
491.8
100.5
65.2
35,3
624.7
474.2
644.9
484.8
657.4
489.4
668.8
494,3
677.2
498.9
690.2
503.5
88.6
60.7
28.0
84.9
61.4
23.5
96.6
62.7
33.9
99.1
64.7
34.4
102.8
103.6
107.0
66.0
36.8
67.5
36.1
71.0
36,0
1.3
0.9
0.8
2.3
264.7
262,5
278.6
282.9
270.9
268.9
273.2
275.0
277.8
280.5
280.2
285.8
283.3
290.3
286.9
296.3
1.7
1.0
3.7
2.0
7,0
0.9
1.9
137.8
98.6
34.5
64.1
31.8
7.4
135.3
102.1
36.8
65.4
30,4
2.8
151.6
108.7
38.2
70.5
40.6
2.2
137.3
100. 6
37.1
63.7
32.8
3.7
143.3
104.7
36.7
68.1
35.4
3.1
152.9
108.3
150.8
109.3
159,4
112.6
167.6
118,1
38.5
69.8
40.0
38.7
70.6
42.7
-1.2
39.0
73.6
44.4
39,4
78,7
49,0
2.0
55.6
53.6
3.6
62.9
59.3
.0
65.3
65.3
2.7
63.2
60.5
4.7
66.2
61.5
209.7
219.4
97.2
75.4
122.2
233.0
223.7
97,6
71.4
135.5
95.9
73.2
127.9
180.8
193.7
-0.6
0.4
284.7
298.3
3.4
601.9
66,9
23.3
3 1 480
4*949
3*538
145.0
5*298
3i654
A2. National and Personal Income
Ann.rate,bil.dol. 763.7
National income, current dollars
do
Personal income current dollars
750.3
Disposable personal income current dol . . . . . . . do . . . 634.2
do
Disposable personal income 1958 dol
513.5
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol... 3tl30
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
. do
1958 dollars
2*535
220.
222.
224
225
226.
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236
237.
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars.
Durable goods exc. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. 579,6
do
469.3
do
89.9
. ..do
58.2
do
31.7
do
247.6
do
242.1
475.9
857.0
831.7
-1.9
-0,3
1.1
1.6
1.3
2.1
5.7
3.0
0.8
4.2
4.0
3.6
5.1
4.9
1.0
6.9
10. U
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245
Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
Fixed investment, total nonresidential ....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip.. . .
Fixed investment, residential structures. ...
Change in business inventories total . . . .
do
do
do
do ..."..
do
do
4.6
2.4
0.6
-1.4
0.9
0.5
1*1
6.8
«5.8
-1,8
240
241
242
243
244
245
-0.5
15.1
14.6
250
252
253
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2.
252. Exports.
253. Imports
do
do
do
0.1
0.0
65.0
-5.1
69.5
74.5
233.8
240.8
250.4
97.6
70.2
100.3
105.3
71.4
76.0
-4.6
60.4
-0.1
66.5
66.4
68.2
68.2
227.9
229.6
96.4
72.6
131,6
96.0
71.4
.133.6
136.2
140.5
145.1
173,1
189,4
190.6
196,4
198.4
209.2
-3.4
2.3
295,5
-2.5
-1.8
301,0
303.6
0.6
307,5
-4.8
290.9
3.5
293,1
1.9
7.1
-0.4
2.3
1.3
4.3
-0.1
-1.0
609.3
627.3
638.0
645.6
656.6
679,5
65.9
23.7
69,0
34.2
66.4
23.8
79,5
34.8
67.2
24.2
82,5
35.4
69,2
24.5
80,0
35.9
70.5
24.6
82.0
36.4
71.3
24.8
33.0
641.9
68.3
24.3
80.7
35.6
154.5
151.8
157.1
63.6
61.0
59.0
56,5
2.6
2.7
-4.6
-11.4
-4.7
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
do
do
. . . do
do
99.2
78.8
110.8
1.8
1-7
-1.7
1.9
-
3.0
2.8
1.7
3.2
4.0
5.0
6.4
3.3
260
262
264
266
1.0
5.4
270
0.7
0.9
2.4
1.3
271
274
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
do
270. Final sales, durable goods
180.9
271. Change2in business inventories, durable
. do
goods .
...
4.5
do
274. Final sales, nondurable goods . .
....
269.0
275. Change in business
inventories,
nondur. ... do . . .
able goods2
2.9
3.0
1.9
3.0
-4.4
275
A8. Notional Income Components
280
282
284.
286
288
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .
Net interest
290
Gross saving total
do
.do
do
do
do
565.5
do
do
141.0
37.9
140.3
54.1
153.1
60.5
138.3
58.5
149.1
58.6
14.5
81.1
7,4
11.7
87.6
-13,1
17.7
95,2
-20,3
11.7
89.8
-21.7
15.7
92.0
-17.1
718.2
6.4
80.1
23.1
35.0
717.7
2,3
78.6
21.3
28.3
737,3
712.8
3.1
75.5
22.6
19.6
727.2
2.1
79.3
27,0
36.1
(JQ
145.6
139.4
139,2
138.3
137.6
do
3.2
38.3
51.6
54.5
48.8
67.0
22,6
78.6
29,9
70*8
NA
36,9
1*2
3.0
1*2
-3.0
1.4
1.7
1.9
0.4
2.5
1.4
3.5
1.1
0.8
NA
1.4
280
282
284
286
288
NA
290
292
A9. Saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
do. ...
do. ...
do
NA
18.0
93.9
16.7
96.2
20.4
98.7
-20.9
-22.2
-20.9
NA
101*2
NA
731.7
4.1
3.5
-1.7
-4.1
-3,3
-7.2
22,2
2,4
-1.3
2.6
1.3
-4.2
NA
2.5
NA
294
296
298
1.6
273
246
247
248
249
AID. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249
261.
Final sales, 1958 dollars.
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars . .
Fixed invest., nonresidential, 1958 dollars.
Fixed invest., residential struc., 1958 dol ,
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Govt. purchases of goods and services,
total 1958 dollars
do
do
do
do
dO
2.5
77,7
24.1
36.8
741.2
748.9
760,7
-0.5
78.9
28.3
37.5
2.4
0.3
79.1
26.7
34.7
81.5
29.0
35.2
137.0
139.6
142.6
144.8
1*9
50.9
54.4
52.2
51.0
3.5
84,6
31,4
35,1
1.3
-4,6
-0.3
6.0
8.1
1.0
2.9
3.3
2.5
-6.1
2.1
-2.1
3.8
8.3
-0.3
1.5
261
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual) 2 1958 dol.
-2.2
-1.2
207
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1970
1971
Percent change
3dQ
1971
4th Q
1971
IstQ
1972
Jan.
1972
Feb.
1972
Mar.
1972
Jan.
to
Feb.
1972
Feb.
to
Mar.
1972
3dQ
to
4th Q
1971
ji
4th 0
to
IstQ
1972
<u
o>
CO
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Compos! tt Indtxts
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3. 1967=100
do
do
do
830 6 lagging indicators
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
816 Pfofitability
do
do
do
do
do
•
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.1
0.9
0.5
0«4
0.7
2.8
1.5
1.5
0.2
2.9
3.2
2.8
0.2
810
820
825
830
NA
115.1
105.1
104.1
NA
0.6
-1.4
-0.4
-0.4
6.2
NA
-0«4
1.1
0.9
NA
1.7
2.1
-0.5
0.4
-3.9
NA
0.4
3.1
2.4
NA
813
814
815
816
817
40.5
40.4
1.2
-0.2
0.8
0*5
1
2.9
4.4
3.2
4.5
3.3
NA
0.3
'0.1
0«i
NA
0.1
0.0
0.1
NA
21
2
259
NA
261
1,3
257
1.2'
259
NA
1.5
0.1
-0.8
NA
4.3
0.3
10.1
NA
5
3
82
82
NA
87
90
85
94
87
NA
90
4.4
2.4
NA
3.4
-16.3
-1.2
NA
6*1
50
46
138.7
71.0
76.6
140.1
71,8
77.4
139.6
71,6
77.2
140.3
71.7
77,3
140.5
72.0
77.8
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0*4
0*6
1*0
1.1
1.0
48
41
42
115.0
120.3
113.8
130.9
126.1
123.9
115.1
125.0
127,6
124.3
115.1
125.5
131.2
126*2
116*8
125.8
135.0
130.2
120.1
126.1
134.0
129.2
119.5
125.7
134.9
130.3
120.2
125.8
136.1
131.0
120.7
126.7
93.2
106.5
103.2
94.1
98.4
94,0
112.2
102.1
100.2
105.4
93,2
113.1
101.9
100.8
109.2
94*8
115.5
1101.4
1101.2
J.04.9
NA
116.0
104.5
103.6
NA
97.8
117.2
104.4
103.6
103.5
98.4
115,6
104.0
103.2
109,9
39.8
39.9
39,8
40.1
40.3
40.0
3.0
4,0
2,9
3.9
2,9
3.9
3,0
3.9
3.1
NA
296
1.8
292
1.6
301
1.7
288
1.4
132
92
88
80
98
83
138.1
70,6
75.2
137.9
70.7
75.7
137,7
70.6
75.8
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1, Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . Hours
21. Avg, weekly overtime hours, production
do
Per 100 employ..
*5. Avg, weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted*) . . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. • Per 100 employ..
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
50 Number of job vacancies mfg. ©
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thousands
1967=100
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Millions .
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri, activities* . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted*)2. . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment
rate,
married
males
4 2
do
(inverted )
0.7
0.6
1.1
5,0
6.0
6,0
5.9
5.8
5.9
5,7
5.9
0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.1
3.5
4.1
4.2
4.1
3,4
3.4
3.4
3.5
o.o
-0.1
0.1
0.7
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
2,9
3.0
2.8
2.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
40
0.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
0.1
0.0
0*1
44
2.8
1.3
1.8
200
205
47
43
1
45
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
do
-0.1
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg const r ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 974.1 1046.8 L053.4 1072.9 1103,2
do
720.0 739.4 740.7 751.3 761.0
1967=100
105.9
107.0 108.9
106.7 106.4
108.2
108,9
109.6
0.6
0«6
1.9
1.4
1.0
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do
899.9
212.7
892.8
209.9
901.8
213.0
905.1
215.1
1,0
1.5
0*4
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.6
3.5
52
53
If 276 l?37i Ii382 It396
NA
971,3 1044.5 L054.6 L070.4 1102.6
421.7 424,0
375.1 408.3 414.2
330.7 347.7 351.0 356*0 354.9
Ii447
It 444
NA
NA
418.6
352.1
421.5
352.4
432.0
360.3
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.4
NA
3.0
0.5 '
«0.3
56
57
54
59
NA
3,0
3.9
NA
NA
12
13
8.7
6.0
6*0
NA
10.5
6
8
10
11
24
do
do
do
do
803.6
197.6
857.0
202.3
864.6
202.2
876.7
205.6
-0,2
0.7
0.1
2*5
2.2
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEAD/KG INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
1967=100
108.1
Ann. rate, tnous. . 266,0
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate,bil.dol..
1967=100
8. Construction contracts, total value
HO. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. , .Ann.rate.bil.do!..
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
24. New orders, producers' cap. goods indus . .....do .....
Ann.rate,mil.sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
ft. floor space ..
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . .Ann. rate, tnous..
1967=100
»29. Newbldg. permits, private housing.
111,2
288.0
112.3
294.0
115.7
305.6
NA
NA
114.9
296.2
113.9
296.4
NA
NA
346.0
126
87.9
25.4
69.5
376.3
145
94,8
23.1
76.7
379.0
153
94.4
24.3
76.5
383.3
151
98.6
23.5
80.8
416.6
160
104,5
NA
89.3
421.2
165
113.3
414,0
155
99.2
414.7
159
100.9
-12.4
0*2
2.6
1.7
97.3
86.9
83.8
-10.7
<-3-6
1*1
-1.3
4.4
-3.3
5.6
766
1*441
118.3
734
2t051
165.2
745
2tll3
174.0
789
2t241
187.5
772
2 1500
179.3
716
2i487
184.5
801
2 1 655
182.1
800
2*359
171.2
11.9
-0.1
-11.1
-6.0
5.9
6.1
7.8
-2.2
11.6
-4.4
9
28
29
77.48
21.06
75.06
19.34
74.36
19.71
75.06
19.34
77.35
NA
76.58
77.08
77.35
0*4
0.9
-1.9
3.1
NA
96
97
-0.9
0.1
-1.7
-6.1
6.8
-1.3
NA
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries9 Bil. dol.,EOP...
do
97. Backloc of capital approp., mfg.3
0.7
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1970
1971
3dQ
1971
4th 0
1971
Percent change
IstQ
1972
Jan.
1972
Feb.
1972
Mar.
1972
Jan.
to
Feb.
1972
Feb.
to
Mar.
1972
3dQ
to
4th Q
1971
4th Q
to
IstQ
1972
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS»Con.
B3. Fixed Capitol tnvestmcnt-Con.
LACC WC INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures;
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate.bil.dot. . 79.74
69, Machinery and equipment sales and
87.52
business construction expenditures ....
do
81.22
80.75
83.18 a87.54
93.16
95.01
96.20
NA 104.50 101.15
NA
-3.2
NA
3.0
5*2
61
1,3
NA
69
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing;
245, Change in business
inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
Ann. rate, billion
Hn. .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent. *
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2.
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ®. . . .
Percent
32. Vendor performance,2 percent reporting
do
slower deliveries <§)
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods Ann; rate, billion
2
industries .
dollars
2.8
2.2
7.2
6.3
46
50
0.8
0.5
55
54
51
48
-6.9
-2.4
2.4
0.6
6.1
4.1
NA
6.3
1.2
NA
-5.1
NA
NA
31
50
43
51
49
52
51
3
-1
-7
8
37
1,0
NA
0,3
0.6
NA
0.3
NA
2.6
NA
20
49
55
53
55
56
2
-6
6
26
-1,2
-1.6
55
48
-1.5
3,6
50
54
52
52
58
2.8
9.2
18.4
6.0
3.2
0
-12,4
1
-2.0
-1.8
245
2
4
32
-2,8
4.3
6.4
25
6
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, rrtfg. and trade inventories9. . Bil.dol.,EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers'
inventories
do
of finished goods'5
173.6
179,9
178.9
179,9
NA
180,5
180,6
NA
0.1
NA
0.6
NA
71
34.11
34.30
34.21
34.30
NA
34.16
34.32
NA
0.5
NA
0,3
NA
65
113.9
107.1
106.1
107.0
113.6
110.7
113.0
117.2
2.1
3,7
0.8
6.2
23
83.2
98.3
98.6
96.4
105.4
103.3
105.2
107.7
1,8
2,4
-2.2
•
9.3
19
41.2
31.8
47.4
35.1
48.2
35,3
49.7
36.3
NA
NA
3.1
2.8
NA
NA
16
18
8.4
4.0
97,0
72.4
55.7
9.0
4.1
97.6
84.0
61.2
9.3
4.2
97,8
85.2
61.5
9,2
4.0
98.0
88.8
64.3
NA
NA
97.6
NA
NA
98.1
97.2
97.4
0-2
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
4.2
4.6
NA
NA
-0.4
NA
NA
22
15
17
34
35
115.9
115.7
116.5
116.5
116.9
116.7
0,3
0,2
0.2
0.0
1.1
1.4
55
58
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices;
*23. Industrial materials prices <g)
1967-100
Stock Prices;
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks <§).... 1941-43=10
Profits and Prof it Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, curr. dol . . Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dol . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
connotate all industries
Percent
IS. Prof its (after taxes) per dol. of sal es.mfg.2 Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
1967=100
34 Net cash flow coro curr dol
Ann.rate,biLdoL.
H Npt ra<th flow rnrn IQ^ft rinl
do
-0,9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, Indus, commodities®. 1967-100
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®. ......do
110.0
110.2
114.0
113.8
114,9
114.7
115.1
114.7
116.4
116.3
1967=100
118.9
122.7
123,3
123.6
125.5
0,2
1,5
63
1967=100
0.810
113.6
0.828
116.6
0.832
117,3
0.829
117.2
NA
119.1
118.0
119,7
119.7
1.4
0,0
-0.4
-0.1
NA
1,6
68
62
6.1
9.4
3.2
12.6
12.5
9.4
-0,1
-2.7
8.4
85
0,9
-2,7
1,2
NA
4,0
16.2
-2.7
NA
NA
-2.7
0,5
0.7
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private econ
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85 Change in money supply(Ml)2
102. Change in money supply plus time
Ann. rate, percent.
do
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep, at
do
Ann. rate, bit. dol. .
33, Change in mortgage debt2
2
do
*113. Change in consumer installment debt ...
do
.do
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.*) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
3.7
1,0
7.8
10.6
4.4
7.9
13.1
13.4
14,3
11.6
7.5
19.8
2.8
0.2
84.8
12.5
36,3
8.0
1.6
125.5
7.7
42,9
10.4
9.8
142.9
9.5
41.2
12.4
-3.7
117.5
15.4
NA
NA
1.4
NA
15.5
34,5
7,6
-8.5
16,7
NA
11,6
7,7
14.0
NA
NA
5.0
5.3
3,5
5.2
102
1.8
-1,7
2.0
-13.5
-17.8
5.9
NA
NA
5.1
NA
103
33
113
112
110
do
1.89
1.92
1.67
1.54
2.05
1.22
2.30
2.65
-88.5
-15.2
7,8
-33.1
14
Percent, EOP....
1.87
1.68
1,75
1.68
1.73
NA
1.73
NA
NA
NA
0,07
-0.05
39
Million dollars...
-616
-207
-520
-80
131
153
91
150
62
-59
-440
-211
93
do
do
do
6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35
4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48
5.05
8.09
5.75
5.75
4.23
7.64
5.52
5.16
3.43
7.49
5.65
5.24
3.40
7.36
5.62
5.12
3.18
7.57
5.67
5.28
3.72
7.53
5.66
5.31
-0.22
0,21
0.05
0.16
0.54
-0.04
-0.01
0.03
-0*82.
-0,45
-0.23
-0,59
-0.80
-0.15
0.13
0.08
114
116
115
117
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
Money Market Interest Rates:
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1970
1971
3dQ
1971
Percent change
4th Q
IstQ
1971
1972
Jan,
1972
Mar.
1972
Feb.
1972
Jan.
to
Feb.
1972
Feb.
to
Mar.
1972
3dQ
to
4th Q
1971
4th Q
to
IstQ
Series nuraber 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
1972
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6* Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding
Bil.dol., EOF...
Bil.dol
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*.6J. Bank rates on short-term bus,
loans *® . . .
118. Mortgage yields residential 5 © . . *
do
99,0
84.8
107,1
104.0
107.1
84.3
84.6
85.5
85.1
84.5
108,7
85,1
85.6
8.48
9.03
6.32
7.70
6.51
7,91
6,18
7,65
5,52
7.47
7.49
7.46
7.45
-0.03
-2.0
43.6
17.5
-1.2
46.7
17.3
-5.3
-6.0
47.7
-3.8
50.7
17.1
-7.2
45.7
16.5
-7.0
46.7
-3.4
-9.9
-3.5
-3.8
-3.1
NA
107.7
NA
0.9
0.7
NA
0.6
-0,01
3.0
1.1
NA
-0.5
66
72
-0.33
-0.26
-0,66
-0.18
67
118
-4.1
-0.7
22.6
500
502
506
508
512
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl, Foreign Trade
500.
502
506.
50.8.
512.
Merchandise trade balance2
Ann. rate, bil.dol..
Exports excluding military aid
do
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles
do
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1957-59=100....
General imports
Ann. rate, bil.dol ..
2.8
42.7
17.2
253
39,9
246
45.6
246
47.9
38 . 9
18.1
265
44.2
NA
NA
53.7
290
54.5
279
52.8
NA
NA
53.7
0.2
2.2
NA
NA
1.7
-16.7
4.6
7,7
-7.7
NA
NA
21.5
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
250. Balance on goods and services 2
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances 2
519. Balance on curr. acct. andlongterm capital 2
521. Net liquidity balance*
522. Official reserve transactions balance3;,
do
do
j_
do
do
do
-3.0
-3.8
-9.8
rtn
3.6
2.2
0.4
-.1
0.2
-2.3
-2.3
-2,3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
250
515
517
519
521
522
-22.0
-29.8
-12.8
-37,2
-48.7
-17.4
-25.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-13.6
-23.1
-26.7
-25.7
NA
1,0
NA
600
191.5
198.7
197.8
203.0
NA
2.6
NA
601
221.9
224,6
70.2
80,5
21.5
43,6
26,1
35,7
228.7
711.4
236.4
71.4
81.5
21.2
42.5
23.4
33,3
1.8
1.7
7,2
7.9
0.0
3.4
6*4
NA
NA
9.9
NA
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
130,7
116.3
110.0
110,4
137.0
121.3
114.0
113.9
137.8
122.0
114.9
114.7
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.9
211
781
55
750
do
121,2
129.6
do..
104,2
106.9
do..,.
89.95
do
do
do
do
-0.8
-2.8
-9.3
-1.3
-3.5
-2»1
-3.6
-5.8
-6.1
6,7
19.8
23.6
03. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts'2
601- Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
26.4. National defense purchases
61EL Defense Dept. obligations total
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647 New orders, defense products industries . . .
648 New orders, defense products
625 Military contract awards in U.S
Hn
do . . . . 205.1
;
75.4
do
79.5
do
do
19.8
42.9
do
23.4
do
33.4
do .
76.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.0
41.4
21.4
35.2
41.8
21.2
NA
92.9
31,6
45.5
37.4
44.3
NA
-42.8
-20.5
138.4
122 .,7
115.il
114. .8
139.9
123.7
116.4
117.0
123.2
115.9
116.3
123.8
116.5
117,3
124.0
116.9
117.4
0.5
0.5
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.1
130.7
132*2
134,9
134.5
134,7
135.5
0.1
0.6
1.1
2.0
740
107,2
107*7
108.9
109.0
108.6
109.2
0.6
0.5
1.1
741
92.30
92,03
93.14
95.13
94.85
95.04
95,50
0.5
1.2
2.1
359
122.8
131.4
132.4
134.0
136,9
1.2
2.2
745
105,6
104.3
103.5
108.3
108.1
106.9
108.5
108.5
107.1
109,2
109,3
108.3
110.7
109,9
109.3
0.6
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.5
0.9
746
770
858
82.8
78,6
84.1
79.1
84.2
79.2
85,0
85,9
80,8
86,3
23,2
43,6
24,3
34,5
42.9
26.7
-9.0
-0.9
NA
-6.9
-3.4
-1.6
04. Price Movements
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private
product
1967=100
781 Consumer prices, all items ©
do
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities . .
do
750, Wholesale prices, all commodities ©
do
05. Wages and Productivity
740- Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
private nonfarm economy
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation in private nonfarm economy . . ,
746. Real avg. hourly compensation in private
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858- Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
-0.4
0.2
06. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
84h Total civilian labor force
842 Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed
Thousands. .
do ...
do
4.1
5.0
5.0
80*0
5.0
5.0
85.7
80.6
5.1
85.5
80,6
4.9
5.1
0.0
3.9
-4.1
1.0
1.0
0.0
1.1
1.0
0.0
841
842
843
NA
0.0
NA
-0.1
-0,6
0.7
NA
850
851
NA
-1.5
NA
85*
0.7
-1.7
-0.2
853
-3.7
-5.1
854
-2.0
0,0'
-0*3
86.3
81.2
-0.2
0.9
0.7
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 3 .. Percent
851. Ratio, inven. to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
do
853. Ratio, prod, of bus, equip, to consumer
goods
1967-100
854, Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
860- Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 ®. , Percent
NOTE:
available.
78,2
1,60
74.4
1.56
73.9
1.55
73.8
1.54
3.03
2.77
2.73
2.69
91,6
83.2
83.8
82.4
82.2
0.079
0.082
0.081
0,078
0.074
0.687
5,3
0.478
5,4
0.494
0.484
5.6
0.518
5.3
.5.6
74.5
NA
1.50
1.50
NA
2.59
2.61
82,3
A1.8
0.499
0.527
NA
82.4
0.528
0.8
-0.6
5.6
0.2
7.0
860
857
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by (§>, which appear to contain no seasonal movernenl.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not
a - anticipated.
EOP - end of period.
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
1n many eases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
3
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
^Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
Index for the latest
month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
"^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements
5
in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series)
are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL
Chart Al
AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
200. GNP in current dollars, Q |ann. rate, bil. dol.J
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
IICII
APRIL
1972
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Section A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
220. National income, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
222. Persona! income, current dollars, Q
224. Disposable personal income, current dollars, Q
ann. rate, bil. dol.l
225. Disposable
income, 1958 dollars,
I
Q [arm. rate, bil dol.]
226. %® capita disposable personal income, current dollars,
227. Per capita disposable
a (ami. rate, tnous. dol.]
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
income, 1958 dollars,
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 690
10
APRIL 1972
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
230. Total, current dollars, Q
,232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
total, current dollars, Q
237. Services, total, current dollars, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
KCII
APRIL 1972
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
{July} (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
F
T
(fey) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Now.)
P
T
Gross private domestic investment-
241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total Q
;
242. Nonresidentia! structures, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment Q
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Ct
195©
51
52
53
54
5i
56
57
53
59
60
61
62
63
64
6S
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 7(X
12
APRIL 1972
not
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(July) {Apr.}
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
/N^
0-
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
105© 51
§2
S3
54
§5
56
57
58
59
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
ltd)
APRIL
1972
13
Section A
Chart A6
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current]
Government purchases of goods and services-
260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
2S4. National defense, Q
266. State and local government;, Q
liSO
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
SS
§9
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
APRIL 1972
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
2-747Cinat sales, nondurable goods, 6
Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
I
-5L
'
1950 SI
J.JU. I
Si
53
S4
-A ^ - I.
ufl iLl
§§
56
57
58
§9
@©
61
62
63
64
6S
6S
67
7Q
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 71,
BCII
APRIL 1972
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
{July} (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
286. Corporate prof its and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
1950 Si
51
53
54
55
56
57
§8
59
60
6E
62
63
64
65
66
@7
@S
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 711 and 72.
16
APRIL 1972
ICO
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
290. Gross savins [private and government, Q
292. Personal saving, Q
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296. Capital consumption allowances, Q
298: Government surplus or deficit Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
I APRIL 1972
17
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug,)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
246. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars, Q
247. Fixed investment nonresident!*!, 1958 dollars, Q
248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q
261, Government purchases of goods and services, total, 1958 dollars, Q
249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
5ii
56
57
53
59
60
SH
62
63
64
65
66
67
6S
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 7Z.
18
APRIL 1972
ItUI
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
70 T
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
60-
50-
40-
30-
241A. Fixed investment nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, G
266A. State and local government
purchases or goods and services
as percent of GNP, Q V
262A. Federal Government purchases
of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q
20-
10-
244A. Fixed investment residential structures as percent of GNP,
0J
250A. Net exports of goods and services
as percent of GNP, Q
245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP,
National Income Shares
80-,
Percent
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, Q
70-
60 -
50-
40-
30-
282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, Q
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, Q
20-
10-
284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, Q
288A. Net interest as percent of national income, Q ,
0J
1950
SI
52
§3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
€6
67
i@
69
70
71 1S73
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
KCII
APRIL 1972
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) {Nov.}
P
T
Marginal Employment Adjustments
42n
*1, Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing [hours)
41
40-
Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees]
*5. Average weekly initial daims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
200250300 =
350400-
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
APRIL 1972
ltd*
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Job Vacancies
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. thousands)
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
/
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, tail, man-hours)
41. Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls [millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data lor these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
KCII
APRIL 1972
21
Section B
Chart
Bl
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale]
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percenit-inverted scale)
234- .
4
567-
1-
40, Unemployment rate, married mates {percent-inverted scale)
234-
a6-
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44, Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
1-
2-.
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
APRIL 1972
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Production
*47. Industrial production index: 1967=100)
*52. Personal income (ann. rate,fail,dot.)
53. Wagfis and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
constructtDtrjanir: rate; tilt. dol.|
—""
1950 51
52
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
r^
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or tagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
KCII APRIL 1972
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
H
""•"
•"
..!;••••
1
:
BO. wianuTaciunng ann traoe salesman. uol.J
I.
, (
..
,•
.
*/*
X
xv^V
IJU -
120110100-
^f
;
s—
90an-
1200115011001050-
10*30950fOOU50JOO-
57. Final sates [series 200 minus series 245), Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
*54. Sales of retail stores (bit. dol 1
59. SaWs of retail stoias, 1907 dollars [oil, dol.)
1950
51
52
53
54
58
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this ecorwmlc process (I.e., ProductSon, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
APRIL 1972
Section B
CYCLICAL SSMDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Formation of Business Enterprises
*12. Net business formation index: 1967-100]
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
- *"!*
*6.New orders, durable goods industries (bit dot.)
MCD moving avg.-5-tem)'
iu. uontracts ana oraers, plant ana equipment IDII. aoi.]
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This ts a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W, Dodge Division,,
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
!!€!» APRIL 1972
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
11, New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q [lit. dot)
24. Manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods industries (bil. dol.)
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft.
bTTioTallaTl^^
^
^28, New private housing units stoned, total (ann. rate, millions; MOD moving avg.-5-term)
»eirbTfilffin^^^
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on page si 77 and 78.
26
APRIL 1972
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(toy) (Feb.)
P
(Nov.) (Mm.)
P
T
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
120100-
80 -
96. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, durable goods industries (bit. dol.)
\s
40J
302520-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)'
15-
1
10-
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
100-1
908070- '
. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q jann. rate, DM. dol.]
60504012010080-
69. Machinery and equipment sales and Business construction
expenditures fann. rate, bil. dot.)
60-
40-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
APRIL 1972
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
+2CU
245. Change in business inventories, Q (arm. rate, oil. riol.)
+10.
0.
=10
*31. Change in book vafue, manufacturing and trade inventories
, mi. doi; MCD moving avg.-5-termj
+20-1
+10
J
-10
percent of companies reporting higher inventories
75i
SO-
25-
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
+10-,
*S
0
-5-J
100-
materials, percent of companies
or longer
:
reporting i
75-
M^-
y^
SO-
25
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 76 and 79.
28
APRIL 1972
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Ec
<>nomic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
f
I
\
(May) (Feb.)
P I
;i
t
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
I
Inventory Investment and Purchasing -~ Con. |
H
B
I
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
, (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
7T. Boor value, maWaclufinYanTlioTinventories
10-
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators hove as yet teen selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
APRIL 1972
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) {FeW
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
160140-
Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23. Industrial materials prices [index: 1967=100]
80
140
100- •
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks [index: 1941-43-10)
80- '
60 =
Profits and Profit Margins
40-'
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (aim. rate, bit. dol.)
18. Corporate profits after taxes,
1958 dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. dol.)
??. i.Rfltto,.profits (aftftr taxes) to incom
corporate, all industries, Q (percent)
15. Profit.S (aftfif tayp<:) par flnllar nf ^^s, fnannfartimngt (\ (cents)
110105-
J\l ,R9tio, price |g ynitJabor cost, mfriteterinr [indgx: 1967=100)
li§0 Si
53
53
54
5!i
Si
S7
S8
59
60
6H
62
63
64
100- 1
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1971
Current data for these series are shown on page si 79 and 80.
30
APRIL 1972
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
(JuW
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
F T
(Nov.)
T
70-
current ctoflars, Q (aim. rate, bit. dol.)
1ST!ff calfi Ddwt corporate,
,.. jHnJUni rate, ML JoU—
Roughly Coincident Indicators
1§SO
51
SI
S3
54
Si
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
§§
66
67
69
70
71 1972
Cufrent data for these series ore shown on page 80.
BCII
APRIL 1972
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Unit tabor cost, total private economy
63. Index, Q (1967=100)
63c- Change over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent]
68. Labor cost (curr. dol.J per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars!
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
51
52
S3
54
5S
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
S3
®4
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
APRIL 1972
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
+25102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
(ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.~6-term|
+20+15-'
+10-
J!
+50=
+25+20+15-'
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3) [ann, rate, percent;
M CO movtn c av£f.'^'fi*tBi'm 1 - • - . . . -.-r -.- ^-m- -r----.-
+10-i
+50-
+15-
85. Change in money supply (Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-teimj
+10 =
+50-5+45-
+40+35+30-
33. Change in mortgage debt {ann. rate, bil. dol)
+25-
^-^^
+20+15-
*113, Change in consumer installment debt {ann. rate, bil dol.}
1950
51
52
53
Current data for thes<
ItCII
APRIL 1972
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
; shown on page 81.
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Jyfy) (Apr.)
P T
(JuW (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Flows of Money and Credit - Con
110. Total private borrowing, Q (arm. rate, bit. dol.)
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale;
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scale]
1.5-
2.0-
——J 2.5
1950
51
52
53
54
!iS
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 61.
34
APRIL 1972
III It
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
-to--
93. Free reserves jbil, dol.-inverted scale)
7-
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
4-
8-
7-
6-
I
bond yields (percent)
4J
6-
I-
bond yields (percent)
4-
3-
2-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data lor these series are shown on page 82.
BCII
APRIL 1972
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer installment debt fbil. do I.)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. do!.]
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
1950 51
52
53
54
35
56
57
5$
5®
60
SI
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
APRIL 1972 KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
1, 5, 6,10,12, left 19, 23, 29,
indicators, estimated
economic activity*
|t!| 830. Six Iaggir||feicators (serilpji 61, 62, 67, 71,72} V'
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-} and lags (+( in months from reference turning dates.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
BCIft
APRIL 1972
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T
P I
811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
[series 1, 5, 6,10,12,16,17,19, 23,
813. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5]
814. Capital investment commitments (series 6,10,12,
815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37]
816. Profitability (series 16,17,19]
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33t 85,112,113)
§4
SS
Si
i?
58
59
§©
61
62
S3
64
65
66
67
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
APRIL 1972
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
*U Average wonweek; production
(thousands-inverted
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.j
*10. Contracts and orders,
and equipment (bil. dot.)
*29. (iwbuildmg permits, private housing units (index; 1967=100)
«™=-^^^--^-4ii*-*—-^
»^_<«»™™tSB=
1948 4§
5©
51
52
53
54
55
5S
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
S5
67
$S
69
70
71 19?a
Current cjota for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.
I APRIL 1972
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
P
T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
[ann. rate, bil. doi; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
•
'
i
+20 n
-10140-
*23. industrial materials prices index: 1967-100]
12010080140120100-
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
8060-
6050-
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
40-
30-
20.
105-
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost; manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
10095-
l^
;
i
:
"113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.J
+10-
0-5-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
5$
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78, 79, 60, and 81.
40
APRIL
1972
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(Mart (Feb.)
T
P
T
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
Q (arm. rate, bil. doljj
*200.BNP in current
dollars, Q (arm* rate
dol.j
Industrial production
[Index: 1967=100}
Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls (millions)
*43. Unemproyrnent rate, total [percent-inverted scale]
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.
KCII APRIL 1972
41
Section B
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
duty) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nw.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Hew.)
P
T
T
*44, Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale]
*61. Business expenditures, new plaint and equipment Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
*71 Book value, manufacturing and trade
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967-100]
*72. Commercial and! industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent]
49
SO
81
S2
54
5S
56
57
SS
Si
€0
61
®2
§3
§4
0S
66
67
Si
Current data for these series are shown on pogei; 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82,
42
APRIL
1972
ItCII
IS AND
AGGREGATE SERIES
(Nov.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
!•
(Hm.)
T
HTlJusiness expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries, Q
Current doto for these series are shown on page 84.
APRIL 1972
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P I
(Nov.)
T
200
ISO
160
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. do!.]
140120-
100
120
110
10090
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book vaiue. Q ftil. dol.]
80
7060-
504030414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: /
percent considered high less percent
/
considered low, Q [percent]
.*•*"•,..+••*'' \/\
**•*•••«
20-
/"'
10050-
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity:
percent considered inadequate less percent
considered excessive, Q [percent]
*..
~ \ /
40-
vx
;\
302010-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
APRIL 1972
Section C
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(Now.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) {Apr.!
P
T
P
T
(Now.)
T
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (p
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)
Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, (p
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
>.^^
430. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
(ann. rate, mill cars]
-'"
:\
(b) Increase less decrease (percent]
|c) Mean probability of decrease in family income [percent)
%v
4.../*V
r\ -A
v V \
"
B
t
(DUctual (quarterly)'
_
_ , -_=_~--_- ^-p- q
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data (percent)
? j
CS
„«!
V
435. Index of consumer sentment, Q |1st Q 1968=100)
v
'
___ . . _ : .
\ /
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
licit
APRIL 1972
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter]
(Nov.)
T
Actual
Anticipated*
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
Haf Actual expenditures ~
Second anticipations
fa] AcTual expenditures
(c) First anticipations
0440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade 14-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4 Q span)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
S7
58
99
60
61
62
63
©7
68
69
7©
71
72
1973
Current data for these serfes are shown on p«ge 85.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
APRIL 1972
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
(Nov.)
P
(Feb.)
T
(Nov.)
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
\
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
D466. Selling prices, retail trade {4-Q span)1
1957
Si
71
72
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
KCII APRIL 1972
47
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
.
,
(May) (Feb.)
P T
_
(fto.) (Nov.)
P
T
500. Merchandise trade balance (bil, dot; MCO moving avg-6-termJ
502. Exports, except military aid (bil. dol.;
orders, durabte; except motor vehicles
bil. dol.; MCD moving
^
(index; 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
ion. 001.; MUU moving avg.-4-termj
14
Si
16
§7
70 71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86,
APRIL 1972
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Balance on goods and servfceT
Sl/TijaTarice on current acctHirt
519. Balance on current account and long term capital
521. Net liquidity balance
522. Official reserve transactions balance
195©
5i
54
5S
§6
5?
50
"59
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
ItCII
APRIL 1972
49
Section D
OTHER ICEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services - Con.
530. Liquid Satwftties to afi foreigners, outstanding at iend of period
532. Liquid c'ntl certain nonltpd fabities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
. U.Syif ffctaj rese^^sete-resetve^ poisftion at end of period^
22*
14-
10-
52
53
54
39
56
§7
5$
SS
60
(SI
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
APRIL 1972
\\i\\
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(My) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
68-
64 -
80 =
96-
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
52*
48*
12 =
Goods and services^
44-
40-
36-
250. Balance on goods and services
32 =
28 -
Merchandise, adjusted-
24-
536. Exports
20-
12 =
investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-
4J
1950 51
53
S3
§4
Si
Si
57
SS
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
68
69
7®
71
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ltd*
APRIL 1972
51
Section D
Chart D2
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
duty) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sates and expenditures 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
546. Military safes to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
549. Payments
52
SS
54
SB
§6
§7
58
68
6S
70
71
1972
Current data for these series are shown on po;ge 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
APRIL 1972
B€l»
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) <Aut)
P
T
P
(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Capital Movemen
Annual rate, billion dollars
£23 Excess of receipts (inflow)
filifl Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments-
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities .
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
>
il
m
m
14 ii
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
9@
WH
Si
iS
6®
§S
Current dcrta for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ItCII APRIL 1972
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July) (tog.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(fey) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, 0! (ann. rate, bil. dot)
602. Federal ^xpenditiifBs.nathmatliicome and product accotiirts, Q (anrr. rate, M. dof.f
Current data for these series are shown on page 89,,
54
APRIL 1972
ltd*
Section D
KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) {Aug.}
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T
Defense Indicators
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. doL)
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
obligations, procurement
avg.-6-termj
[bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
648. New orders,
defense
products
(fail, dot.)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
ItCII
APRIL 1972
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
140 =
131- .
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), 0 (index: 1958=1001
1115 =
783, Commodities less foods
211 c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
over l-quarter spans, Q (ana rate)
781c. Change^jnnsumerjnce jndex4jalLftemsJseasonaJly jdj.j -Six-month spans (ann. rate]
SI
S2
S3
§4
1)5
56
§7
SS
5S
6©
Cil
S2
64
@S
67
68
69
70
71 1972
' One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they maybe shown against the background of the annuallzed changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual t-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
APRIL 1972
BCII
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
pay) (Feb.)
F T
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.]
ix-month spans (arinrrafeT
i JU.JUUU
1
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month .percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
ltd*
APRIL 1972
57
KEY
Section D
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Jeiy) (Aug.)
P
T
P
fc)
P
T
(Now.)
T
private nonfarm economy (annual data prior to 1964}-
Real spendable avg. weekly eamings, nooaeri
production or norisupervisory workers [1967 dollars]
Average hourly compensation, ail employees,
private nonfarm economy -»
745. Cwrent doll* compensato
(index: 1967=100)
770,, Output per man-hour, total private
economy, Q (indfex: 1967=lil|
858. Output per man-hoort total private
52
S3
54
55
56
57
§8
39
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
6S
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
APRIL 1972
RCII
Section D
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (%r.)
P T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy, adj. --1
Six-month spans (ann. rate)
t i
740c. Current dollar earnings
741c. Real earnings
V
Change in avg. hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q]~
745c ^ W(a^MmpensatiOA
Six-month spans (ann. rate)
One-quarter span (
\/
Four-quarter span
746c. Real compensation
A
*
One-quarter span (ann. rate)
•
*
r
A. -i
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions; all industries--
749. Average changes over life of contract, Q (ann. rate}
H 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy |Q)
One-quarter span (anni rate)
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annuallzed changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual t-month percent changes.
Current data Tor these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
KCII APRIL
1972
59
Section D
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July) (Apr,)
p
I
P
T
-
F
T
Civilian Labor Force
846. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Current data for these series are shown on page 94,
60
APRIL 1972
ItCII
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
(Wov.) (Nov.)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
I
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
{«. rate, ML dri.) - *
ID w n
'Trend fine of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.7S percent from
Current data for these series ore shown on page 95.
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4* quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1972.
BCII APRIL
1972
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
P
T
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Cl (percent
851. Ratio, inventories to sates, manufacturing and trade (ratio)
852. Ratio, unfitted orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
(lidex: 1967-100)
854. Ratio, personal saving to rtsposaWe personal income, Q [ratio]
Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemployed (ratio]
857. Vacancy rate in total
rental housing, Q [percent)
Current data for these series are shown on poige 96,
62
APRIL 1972
BCII
Section E
Leading Indicators
(JuW (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Wlay)(feb.)
P I
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing^! industries |9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----)
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—r 1-mo, span—-)
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-"!? industries (3-Q span
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-!
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials {9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-.-]
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
100i
50--
1950 91
92
53
54
55
§6
57
5S
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
7©
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
BCII APRIL 1972
63
Section E
Chart
E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T '
T
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries [6-mo, span—, 1-tno. span—)
047. Industrial productjon-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
M
m
§2
S3
S4
SS
70 n
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
APRIL 1972
KCII
Section E
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Percent change, annual rate
200. [c] 6NP in current dollars (1-Q span)
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators [series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide," pp. 119, 120, and 121,
P APRIL 1972
65
DM
Fn.
If
Section
¥
F
^-^x_-^x
Lit.
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
P I
P
T
I
Consumer prices-
1950 §1
52
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70 71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
APRIL 1972
KCII
Section F
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(JuW
(Aug.)
F
T
Pay) (Feb.)
P T
(Mow.) (Nov.)
P
T
Industrial production-*
Ifi©
i)l
il
iS
i$
ii
1© i^
i©
n
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
APRIL 1972
67
Section F
Chart
F3
STOCK PRICES
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(JaW (ftus
P
T
P
T
(Now.)
T
Stock prices-
current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
APRIL 1972
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate,
rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
a. Total
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
906.4
921.8
940.2
948.0
+16.2
+15.4
+18,4
+7.8
+7.5
+6.9
+8.3
+3.3
721.4
724.2
727.8
725.2
+4.9
+2.8
+3.6
-2.6
+2.8
+1.5
+2.0
-1.4
125.6
127.3
129.2
130.7
+1.3
+1.7
+1.9
+1.5
+4.5
+5.3
+6.1
+4.8
956.0
968.5
983.5
988.4
+8.0
+12.5
+15.0
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
-5.4
+1.3
+2.2
-7.4
-3.0
+0.7
+1.3
-4-1
132.8
134.3
136.0
138.1
+2.1
+1.5
+1.7
+2.1
+6.6
+4.6
+4.9
+3.4
+5.3
+6.3
+2.0
1,020.8
1,040.0
1,053.4
1,072.9
+32.4
+19.2
+13.4
+19.5
+13.7
+7.8
+5-2
+7.6
729.7
735.8
740.7
751.3
+13.8
+6.1
+4.9
+10.6
+8.0
+3.4
+2.7
+5.8
139.9
141.3
1A2.2
142.8
+1.8
+1.5
+0.9
+0.6
+5.4
+4.2
+2.5
+1.7
pi,103.2
prf-30.3
p+11.8
p76l.O
p+9.7
P+5.3
P145.0
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+5.0
+6.3
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter. Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
1*6.2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217, Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
220. National
income in current dollars
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita, 227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
current dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate, dol.)
dollars)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
4,490
4,556
4,634
4,658
3,574
3,579
3,587
3,563
745.9
758.9
771.7
778.2
726.8
743.1
759.3
772.2
613.2
625.9
643.2
654.5
506.1
509.8
517.5
520.5
3,037
3,093
3,170
3,216
2,507
2,520
2,550
2,558
4,686
4,735
4,795
4,804
3,528
3,526
3,526
3,480
785.8
793-4
802.2
802.1
784.3
803.8
809.8
816.7
667.6
685.7
696.2
701.5
524.4
533.0
536.0
532.5
3,272
3,353
3,395
2,570
2,606
2,613
2,588
4,949
5,030
5,082
5,163
3,538
3,559
3,573
3,615
831.7
847.3
855.2
rS70.1
833.5
853.4
864.6
876.7
722.0
739.6
748.5
755.0
542.7
550.5
553.2
556.1
3,500
3,577
3,611
3,633
2,631
2,663
2,669
2,676
P5,298
P3,654
p899.9
P765.7
P558.5
p3,677
P2,682
1970
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification onlyanddonotreflectseriesrelationshipsor order. Complete titlesand sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 65.
ltd! APRIL 1972
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automobiles
in current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1969
564.3
575.a
584.1
594.2
465.7
469.0
469.9
472.6
09.5
90.6
604.0
613.8
620.9
624.7
39.4
90.3
57.7
59.3
57.7
58.1
31.8
31.3
31.7
32.2
241.5
246.4
249.4
253.1
233.4
238.9
245.2
250.8
474-4
477.1
477.9
474.2
88.6
90.7
90.4
84.9
59.7
60.8
60.8
61.4
28.9
29.9
29.6
23.5
259.4
262.9
265.5
270.9
256.1
260.2
265.0
268.9
644.9
657.4
668.8
677.2
484.8
489.4
494*3
498.9
96.6
99.1
102.8
103.6
62.7
64.7
66.0
67.5
33.9
34-4
36.8
36.1
273.2
277.8
280.2
283.3
275'. 0
280.5
285.8
290.3
p690.2
P503.5
p!07.0
pTl.O
P36.0
p286.9
P296.3
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter-.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
100.7
102.2
33.1
33.0
36.0
36.0
61.8
63.6
64.7
66.2
32.7
33.6
30.7
30.1
+10.4
+5.7
131.2
134.1
138.6
137.3
100.8
102.1
104.8
100.8
36.1
36.6
37.3
37.1
64.7
65.6
67.5
63.7
30.0
29.9
28,7
32.8
+0.4
+2.1
+5.1
+3-7
143.3
152.9
150.8
159.4
104.7
108.3
109.3
112.6
36.7
38.5
38.7
39.0
68.1
69.8
70.6
73.6
35.4
40.0
42«7
44.4
+3.1
+4.6
-1.2
+2.4
pl67.6
pllS.l
P39.4
P78.7
P49.0
p+0.6
134.3
137.0
141.8
138.0
95.0
96.6
+6.6
+6.8
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those seriesthat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identificationonlyand do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles andi sources are shown atthe back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p"> preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
APRIL 1972
!!€!»
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
253. Imports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
264. National
defense
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1969
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
1970
+1.4
+1.2
+2.8
+2.7
48.0
56.9
58.3
59.2
46.6
55.7
55.5
56.6
206.5
207.8
211.5
213.0
99.2
97.7
100.3
99.5
78.3
77.5
79.4
78.4
107.3
110.1
111.2
113-5
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
+3.5
+4.2
+4-0
+2.7
61.5
63.2
63.7
63.2
58.0
59.0
59.7
60.5
217.3
216.5
220.1
223.7
100.2
78.9
75.1
74.2
73.2
117.1
119.7
124.0
127.9
+4.7
+0.1
0.0
-4.6
66.2
66.5
68.2
60.4
61.5
66.4
68.2
65.0
227.9
229.6
233.8
240.8
96.4
96.0
97.6
100.3
72.6
71.4
70.2
71.4
131.6
133.6
136.2
140.5
P-5.1
p69.5
P74.5
p250.4
P105.3
p76.0
P145.1
H
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
1970
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter ....
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil.dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
income
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
96.8
96.1
95.9
275. Change in
3usiness inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil.dok)
179.1
179.6
181.3
183.4
+3.8
+4.7
+6.5
+3.0
262.2
268.0
271.0
274-9
+2.8
+4.0
+2.8
545.9
559.1
573-6
583.6
66.7
67.1
67.1
67.2
22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9
181.5
183.7
184.9
173.1
-1.8
-2.0
+4.7
-3.4
279.9
282.9
284-9
290.9
+2.2
+4-0
+0.4
+7.1
593.2
598.5
606.5
609.3
68.0
67.6
66.0
65.9
23.0
23-2
23.4
23.7
189.4
190.6
196.4
198.4
+3.5
+2.3
-2.5
-1.8
293.1
295-5
301.0
303.6
-0.4
+2.3
+1.3
+4-3
627.3
638.0
645.6
656.6
66.4
67.2
69.2
70.5
23.8
24.2
24.5
24.6
P209.2
p+0.6
P307.5
p-0.1
P679.5
P71.3
P24.8
+2.1
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V r preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16.
APRIL 1972
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
294. Undistributed 296. Capital concorporate profits
sumption
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
290. Gross saving 292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
82.7
80.7
78 .,0
73-3
28.6
29.4
30.2
31.1
136.2
139.7
145.1
142.9
32.8
33.4
42.3
43.1
16.9
15.3
15.1
10.7
78.4
80.2
82.1
83.9
+8.2
+10,7
+5.6
+5.3
69.8
71.5
73.0
69.0
31.8
32.6
33.4
34.2
139.0
Hl.l
142.6
138.3
46.2
54.2
.57.4
58.5
10.8
12.2
12.2
11.7
85.4
86.9
88.2
89.8
-3.4
-12.2
-15.2
-21.7
79.5
82.5
80.0
34.8
35.4
35.9
36.4
149.1
154.5
151-8
P157..1
58.6
•63.6
61.0
59.0
15.7
18.0
16.7
r20.4
92.0
93.9
96.2
98.7
-17.1
-20.9
-22,2
r-20.9
(flO
P56.5
(NA)
plOl.2
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
P36.9
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
248, Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Government
purchases of goods
and services, total,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1969
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
715.8
71S.3
718.6
720.3
+5.7
+5.8
+9.2
+4.9
78.6
79.1
81.1
81.7
24.1
24.4
22.1
21.6
37.2
33.4
36.3
33.1
147.8
146.1
144-8
143.8
719.5
719.1
719.4
712.8
+0.3
+2.0
+3.9
+3-1
79.3
79.4
80.1
75-5
21.4
21.3
20.0
22.6
29.1
33.0
31.6
19.6
142.6
138.7
138.2
138.3
727.2
731-7
741.2
748.9
+2.5
+4-1
-0.5
+2.4.
77.7
79.1
78.9
81.5
24.1
26.7
28.3
29.0
36.8
34.7
37.5
35.2
137.6
137.0
139.6
142.6
p760.7
1*0.3
p84.6
P31.4
P35.1
P144.8
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. • Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised* V preliminary*
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated.; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16, 17, and 18.
72
APRIL 1972
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter •
Percent of Gross National Product
23GA. Persona!
consumption
expenditures
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
241A. Fixed
investment
nonresidential
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
266 A. State and local
Govt, purchases of Govt. purchases of
goods and services goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
62.3
62.5
62,1
62.7
10.5
10.5
10.7
10.8
3.6
3.6
3.3
3.2
+0.7
+0.7
+1.1
+0.6
+0.2
+0.1
+0.3
+0.3
10.9
10.6
10.7
10.5
11.8
11.9
11.8
12.0
63.2
63.4
63.1
63.2
10.5
10.5
10.7
10.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.3
0.0
+0.2
+0.5
+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
10.5
10.0
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.9
63.2
63.2
63-5
63.1
10.3
10.4
10.4
+0.3
+0.4
-0.1
+0.2
+0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.4
9.4
9.2
10.5
3.5
3.8
4.1
4.1
9.3
r9.3
12.9
12.8
12.9
13.1
p62.6
plO.7
P4.4
P-0.5
P9.5
P13-2
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
9.8
9.7
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter..'.
Fourth quarter..
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
282A. Proprietors
income
1
284A. Rental income
of persons
(Percent)
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and 288A. Net interest
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
73.2
73.7
74-3
75.0
8.9
8.8
8.7
8.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
11.1
10.6
10.1
9.4
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.0
75.5
75.4
75.6
76.0
8.7
8.5
8.2
8.2
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
8.9
9.0
9.1
8.6
4.0
4-1
4.2
4.3
75.4
75.3
75.5
r75.5
8.0
7.9
8.1
•8.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
9.6
9.7
9.4
9-4
4.2
4.2
4.2
.4.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NAtt, not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page ]9<
APRIL 1972
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
^^^m
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1, Average
21. Average
workweek of
weekly overtime
production workers, hours, production
workers, manumanufacturing
facturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
manufacturing
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs 1
(Per 100
(Thous,)
employees)
50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg. ®
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper
(Thous,)
(1967=100)
1970
January
February
March
40.2
40.2
40.1
3.3
3.2
3.2
4.3
4.4
4.2
232
250
263
1.5
1.6
1.7
187
170
166
109
109
103
April
May
June
39.9
39.8
39.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
326
313
303
2,0
1.8
1.9
158
151
123
99
95
92
July
August
September
40.1
3.0
39*8
39.3
2.9
2.8
4.1
4.1
3.8
265
288
338
1.6
1.8
1-9
126
137
118
91
89
85
October
November
December
39.4
39.6
39.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
341
338
297
2.1
2.0
1.8
93
75
76
77
78
80
January
February
March
39.8
39.8
39.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
289
283
293
1.7
1.5
1.5
81
80
83
75
77
78
April
May
June
39.8
40.0
40.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
4.0
3.8
3.7
281
292
296
1.6
1.5
1.5
93
94
90
78
79
83
July
August
September
40.0
39.8
39.5
3.0
2.9
2.8
3-7
4.2
3.9
280
312
312
1.5
1.9
1.7
90
98
85
85
80
October
November
December
39.8
40.1
40.3
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.6
4.1
3.9
302
293
270
1.4
1.4
1.4
90
79
78
80
81
85
1-3
r90
p94
1971
D106
1972
January
February .
March
40.0
[H>r40.5
P40.4
2.9
r4-4
261
r3.2
o\ p3.3
(H)P4.5
E>257
p259
(NA)
[fi>pl.2
(NA)
(NA)
85
r87
H>P90
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by |fi); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 391
Cata exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
APRIL 1972
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
5| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT--Con.
Minor Economic
Process
48. Man-hours
n nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann, rate, bil,
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous,)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ...,
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey x
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, totall
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs 3
40. Unemployment rate,
married males1
(Percent)
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over1 3
(Percent)
1970
1.8
0.5
0.6
0.7
139.21
139.47
139.62
70,873
70,988
71,147
75,428
75,294
75,494
3-9
4.2
4-4
2.5
2.6
2.0
2.7
2.2
139.05
138.46
138.25
71,063
70,796
70,634
75,353
74,969
74,865
4.7
4.8
4.8
3.1
3.5
3.7
2.3
2.5
2.6
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
13o\47
137.76
137.05
70,605
70,445
70,480
75,125
75,092
75,010
5.0
5.1
5.4
3.5
3.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.8
0.9
1.0
October
November
December
136.52
136.45
137.04
70,082
69,985
70,313
75,338
75,162
75,032
5.5
5.8
6.1
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
0.9
1.1
1.3
January
February
March
137.36
136.65
137.38
70,454
70,391
70,480
75,312
75,190
75,059
6.0
5.9
6.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.3
3-2
3-2
1.3
1.3
1.3
April
May
June
137.56
138.07
137.99
70,599
70,769
70,657
75,192
75,418
75,299
6.0
6.1
5.8
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
July
August
September
137.91
137.67
137.64
70,531
70,529
70,853
75,640
75,792
76,088
5.9
6.1
6.0
4.0
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
October
November
December
1972
138.07
138.92
139.17
70,848
71,042
71,185
76,416
76,601
76,698
5.8
6.0
6.0
4.4
4.1
3.8
3-0
3.3
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
rl39.57
r!40.34
(H)pl40.52
r71,584
r71,702
g>p71,978
77,243
77,266
(H>77,759
5.9
E>5.7
5.9
r3.4
E)r3.4
3.5
3.0
2.8
B>2.8
1.4
1.5
1.4
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
0.7
1971
. .
January
February . ....
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
IE). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" t not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, 41, and 42. Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to .January 1972, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Bata exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. %o current high.
ltd)
APRIL 1972
/0
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of *52. Personal
tional product tional product industrial pro- income
in current dol- in 1958 dollars duction
lars
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and *56. Manufac- 57. Final sales
Sales of retail stores
salaries in min- turing and trade (series 200
ing, manufactur- sales
minus series 54. Current
59. Deflated
ing and condollar sales
(1967 dollar)
245)
struction
sales
(Ann. rate,
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1970
956 !o
719.*8
107.4
108.0
107.6
78oa
783.5
789.4
198.5
198.2
200,2
104,904
105,870
105,657
955 '.6
30,334
30,669
30,695
27,230
27,408
27,357
968 ! 5
721 !l
107.5
107.5
107.6
808.0
802.0
801.4
198.7
197.1
197.4
104,807
106,758
107,389
966^5
31,005
31,198
31,293
27,511
27,584
27,595
983 '.5
723 '.3
107.5
107.5
106.5
805.3
809.0
814.9
198.3
198.5
198.0
107,626
108,052
107,738
978.*4
31,601
31,710
31,951
27,818
27,889
27,978
988.*4
715.* 9
103-7
102.6
104.6
813.6
815.7
820.9
193.4
193.4
198.9
105,610
104,485
106,943
984^7
31,621
31,282
31,761
27,592
27,202
27,499
1,020.8
729.7
105.3
105.7
105.5
829.9
832.4
838.3
199.1
198.4
199.8
109,346
111,166
112,740
1,017.7
32,290
32,850
33,274
27,933
28,392
28,610
1,040.0
735^8
106.2
107.0
107.2
843.0
848.6
868.6
200.9
202.6
202.9
113,155
114,303
115,531
1,035.*4
33,578
33,502
33,827
28,773
28,585
28,716
July
August
September..,.,....
1,053.4
740.7
106.1
105-3
106.2
857.7
866.1
869.9
201.5
201.9
203.3
114,727
115,064
115,660
1,054.*6
33,688
34,655
35,219
28,573
29,3U
29,821
October
November
December
1,072*. 9
75ll3
106.4
107.0
107.6
871.2
874-9
883.9
204.0
204.7
208.1
114,687
117,374
•116,964
1,070*.4
34,964
35,574
34,896
D 30,046
108.2
r!08.9
(H)pl09.6
^892.3
r90L. 8
[H>P905.1
r34,886
r35,127
E>P35,996
r29,341
r29,370
p30,022
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
.
October
November
December . ...
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
29,580
29,374
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
E>pl,lD3.2
'[H>p76l.O
209.9 [H>*120,587
r213.0
p!20,374 [H>pl,102.6
(NA)
(H>p215.1
. . .
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, ond 41-
76
APRIL 1972
KOI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
^^M
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
FOrma
EntenrD0risBesSineSS
New lnvestment
Commitments
^
Year
and
month
*12. Index of net 13. Number of
business
new business
formation
incorporations
(1967=100)
(Number)
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
1970
January
February
March
114.5
114-2
110.7
22,397
23,152
21,383
29.23
28,64
28.45
April
May
June
109.7
107.8
107.0
21,939
22,267
22,192
July
August
September
106.1
105.2
105.4
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
* 10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(1967=100)
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)
6.65
132
8.38
7.77
7.06
6.15
6.02
5.54
88.86
80.95
67.11
28.10
29.33
29.61
130
110
120
7.67
6.90
7.18
6.42
5.53
5.66
5.80
64.00
58.19
54-47
22,106
22,055
22,372
30.07
29.75
28.36
116
135
118
7.35
7.09
6.86
6.46
5.90
5.68
5.61
70.45
61.04
60.16
106.0
105.7
104.8
21,625
22,383
22,085
26.78
27.56
30.14
115
130
132
6.99
7.30
7.31
5.90
5.84
5-87
5.92
51.71
54.00
54.69
January
February
March
105.8
105.4
108.7
22,338
20,923
23,220
31.67
31.07
31-47
117
126
142
7.74
8.04
7.71
5.76
6.44
6.62
6.22
54.37
50.04
65.44
April
May
June
108.8
109.9
111.9
22,770
24,168
24,691
30.23
30.60
30.67
161
141
147
7.75
7.66
7.70
5.44
5.68
6.19
6.24
54.82
63.40
62.83
July
August
September
112.3
112.8
111.8
25,073
25,142
23,278
31.96
31.76
31.03
151
153
154
7.48
8.21
7.90
H> 6.07
6.15
6.55
6.42
60.67
54.82
1)70.72
^ 114.7
E> 116.7
115.6
25,050
B> 25,828
25,529
31.13
32.56
32.14
137
155
160
8.30
8.16
8.19
P5.87
6.81
6.56
6.84
61.75
68.70
66.69
rin.9
P113.9
r24,685
p24,702
D 35.10
r34-50
P34.56
(H> 9.44
r8.27
P8.41
(NA)
E> 8,11
r7.24
p6.98
59.65
66.72
66.68
.
October
November
December
131
137
1971
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
(MA)
(M)
D165
155
159
April
May
June
July
August ...
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [fi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
x
This is a copyrighted series used fey permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and. 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
KCII
APRIL 1972
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
28. New private *29. Index of
housing units new private
started, total
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann, rate,
thous.)
(1967=100)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Ann* rate,
bil. dot.)
93.5
100.1
96.8
84.17
83.25
82.46
April
May
June
1,230.
1,230
1,396
104.7
117.1
115.0
81.51
80.91
80.41
July
August
September
1,506
1,401
1,531
117.2
123.0
123.5
80.30
79.57
78.02
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
1,589
1,621
1,943
136.5
133.5
158.5
76.65*
76.53
77.48
1,810
1,793
1,938
143.3
137.0
142.6
78.98
E>79.20
79.06
April
May
June
1,951
2,046
2,008
143.6
168.9
162.1
77.98
76.73
74.75
July
August
September
2,091
2,219
2,029
179.8
175.8
166.5
74.58
74.88
74.36
19/71
October
November
December
1972
January .
2,038
2,227
2,457
190.4
171.1
|H> 200.9
74-32
74.78
75.06
Pl9.*34
• *•
r2,487
H>*2,655
p2,359
184.5
r!82.1
pl71.2
76.58
r77.08
P77.35
March
Investment Expenditures
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 1 2
1,109
1,322
•1,364
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
( Percent
reporting)
+12.0
+4.0
+3.3
50
50
51
80.22
85.82
89.49
88.66
+2.1
+13.7
-1.8
+11.0
45
40
46
81.88
89.63
88.91
87.36
+5*.l
SD+M.3
+6.7
+6.7
46
44
47
78!o3
85.55
85.41
85.94
+3 ".7
+4.2
+9.4
+3.1
46
47
44
79 .*32
89.93
89.01
90.98
+3.*1
+9.3
+5.1
+8.4
46
49
51
8i!oi
89.05
91.24
94.06
B +4.' 6
+8.9
+9.3
+4.3
57
55
58
8o!?5
93.77
95-14
96.12
-1.2
+3.0
+6.1
+9.2
D59
51
41
H>83.*i8
95.61
•94.80
•98.20
•+2,*4
+6.5
-0.7
+6.4
39
&
49
a87.54
[R>rl04.50
plOl.15
(NA)
p+0.6
r+6.3
49
52
51
21.88
19! 73
April
May
June
69. Machinery 245. Change in
and equipment business
sales and busi- inventories
ness construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
bil. dol.)
-1-0.4
.•*
(NA)
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
87.20
88.34
87.99
22 .'56
20.52
LEADING INDICATORS
78.22
23^25
2l! 06
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
LAGGING INDICATORS
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
1970
January
February
March
Ffibrtmry
H
Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
p+1.2
(NA)
a89!o9
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 28, 39, 40, and 42.
•'This is2 a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the Conference
Board.
No current high.
78
APRIL 1972
K€l»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
. Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTNENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
26. Production 32. Vendor
materials, com- performance,
panies report- companies reing commit- port ing slower
ments 60 days deliveries®
or longer®
( Percent
(Percent
(Ann. rate,
reporting)
reporting)
bil.dol.)
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.1 inventor ies of mt Is.
and supplies
1970
January
February .
March
-1.2
+2.2
25. Change in *71. Manufacuntil led orders,turing and
durable goods trade inventoindustries
ries, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
book value
(Bil.dol.) JBil.do!.)
(Bil.dol.)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Com- -f . p .
modity Prices Mock Krices
Profits and Profit Margins
*23. Index of *19. Index of
Corporate profits after
industrial
stock prices,
taxes
materials
500 common
prices®
stocks®
ia Constant
16. Current
dollars
(1958)dollars
(1967=100) (1941-43=10)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
56
58
50
-0.21
-0.92
-0.79
166.69
167.69
168.02
31.62
32.00
32.12
118.9
119.5
118.7
90.31
87.16
88.65
41.' 5
32!?
+0.9
61
62
56
April
May
June
-0.9
-2.1
+0.1
60
57
55
52
72
69
-0.95
-0.60
-0.50
169.16
169.01
169.93
32.67
32.70
32.87
118.2
117.5
114.8
85.95
76.06
75.59
u3
32!!
July
August
September
+0.1
+1.0
+0.8
52
50
52
50
45
45
-0.10
-0.74
-1.54
171.12
171.68
172.24
33.10
33.33
33-53
112.4
111.2
110.5
75.72
77.92
82.58
42*.9
32^9
October . . .
November
December
1971
January
February
March
+2.9
+3.5
+2.4
54
54
52
38
36
36
-1.37
-0.12
+0.96
172.59
173.37
173.64
33.94
34.24
34-11
109.5
108.8
106.4
84.37
84.28
90.05
39^2
29^6
52
+1.50
+0.22
-0.14
174.41
174-83
175.54
34-38
34-49
B)34.71
105.9
107.2
107.8
93.49
97.11
99.60
44.8
33^5
56
38
U
46
H>+4.7
+2.4
+3.2
57
55
58
52
53
50
-1.08
-1.25
-1.98
176.28
177.05
177.40
34-45
34.46
34.31
110.2
108.6
106.1
103.04
101,64
99.72
47! 8
35*.3
July
August
September.
+2.0
-2.2
-4.6
57
55
52
48
49
48
-0.16
+0.30
-0.52
177.65
178.16
178.92
33.95
34-00
34.21
104-7
106.1
107.5
99.00
97.24
99.40
48.2
35.*3
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
+0.3
+0.9
+1.7
51
50
45
50
48
51
-0.04
+0.45
+0.28
179.47
107.4
106.9
106.8
97.29
92.78
99.17
[H>r49.'7
H)36.*3
179.94
34.63
34.50
34.30
+0.3
+0.6
(NA)
53
55
56
52
52
E>+1.53
iH-0,50
pfO.27
rl80-47
0)pl80.57
(NA)
34.16
34.32
(NA)
110.7
113.0
117.2
103.30
105.24
107.69
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
+0.6
-0.7
-2.2
E>59
B>58
179. a
IS)1 119. 5 (Hf 109. 46
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [FJ); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39r 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 30, 40, and 42.
'"Average for April 4,- 11, and 18.
BCII
APRIL 1972
2
Average for April 5, 12, and 19.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
El PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process. ,
Year
and
month
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
profits to
income orig.,
corp., all
indus.
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.
(Percent)
(Cents)
Cash Flow
*17. Ratio,
price to unit Net cash flow, corporate '
labor cost
index, mfg. 34- Current 35. Constant
dollars
(1958) dol.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
Unit labor cost, total
58. Index of
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods®
63c. Change
63, Index
over l"Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
(1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100)
percent)
55,, Index of
wholesale
prices,
indus.
com mod.®
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
96.5
97.2
97.2
7i!6
55^9
108,3
108.7
108.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
117.7
97.0
97.6
97.4
72.0
56.0
109.3
109.7
109.8
109.6
109.7
110.0
118.1
(1967-100)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
*62. Index
of labor
cost per
dol.) per
unit of gross unit of outprod. (1958 put, mfg.
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)
(1967=100)
0.798
112.7
111.9
112.3
0.801
112.8
112.4
112.8
0.811
113.3
114.1
114.6
0.829
114.9
115.6
115.5
0.822
116.0
115.6
116.1
0.828
115.9
116.0
116.5
18)0.332
117.0
118.1
116.9
1970
.. •
4.1
9.7
January
February
March
B'.5
April
May
, y
June
B.5
rl'.Z
July
August
September
8.7
l\Q
97.4
97.1
96.8
74-*4
56.9
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
110.6
110.8
119.0
October
November
December
7.9
3.*6
96.9
96.3
96.4
72 .*3
54.*1
111.3
111.3
111.7
111.2
111.2
111.2
120.7
January
February
March
B.7
4^0
96.5
97.1 .
97.0
78!6
58.*3
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
121.*4
April
May
June
B.9
E> l'-3
97.4
97.9
97.6
83 .*3
60.9
113.3
113-7
113.9
113.0
113.5
113.8
122.' 6
D,9.'3
4^2
97.7
97.6
98.2
85^2
61." 5
114.5
115.1
115.0
114.5
114.9
114.7
123 '.3
4.0
115.0
9 *.2
• ••
E>r88.*S
g>r64.'3
,r!23'.6
115.3
114.5
114.5
115.1
(M)
(M)'
115.9
116.5
115.7
116.5
0)116.9
E>116.7
1.6
3.1
6.0
1971
July
August
September
October . ...
November
December
98.0
D98. 2
r97.8
in. 9
2.1
4.1
r2.2
116.9
116.8
rl*0
0.829
.••
rH7.9
1972
January
February
March. .
r98.1
r97.2
P97.4
(M)
(m)
r 118.0
[H>p6.3
H>pl25!5
(NO
rl!9.7
H>PH9.7
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32, 40, and 42.
80
APRIL 1972
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Q MONEY AND CREDIT
....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money sup, plus
timedep.at
banksand nonbank inst.(M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33, Net change
in mortgage
debtheldbyfin.
inst and life insurancel
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
112. Change
in business
loans
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110, Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
miUdol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures©
(Mil. do!.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
2
( )
1970
+10.60
-1.92
+11.72
+5.27
-3.40
+9.29
+3.06
-2.24
+7.13
+19.04
+15.41
+15.16
+4.56
+5.02
+2.38
+12.29
+2.80
June
+9.29
+4.03
+2.30
+10.76
+7.01
+5.75
+9.32
+6.64
+5.80
+15.76
+18.36
+19.22
+3.55
+4.98
+5.29
July
August
September
+5.16
+7.42
+6.81
+10.85
+11.65
+10.65
+10.75
+10.85
+10.16
+21.06
+20.02
+22.42
October
November
December
+1.69
+2.82
+6.74
+8.21
+6.70
+11.30
+9.30
+7.69
+11.66
+2.79
+13.38
+11.02
+14.06
E)+20.70
+18.68
+8.19
January
February
March
-4.67
April
May
78,312
137.28
139.39
120.02
+3.70
+5.65
+2.15
87,700
131.90
147.89
170.50
+5.32
+2.78
+4.31
+2.15
+7.45
+0.12
82,444
251.92
169.59
232.94
+22.70
+20.72
+27.11
-0.98
-3.62
+0.25
-18,97
-8.00
-4.99
90,600
144.77
119.84
121.72
+15.52
E)+20.93
+19.28
r+24.11
r+22.79
r+29.71
+1.04
+1.22
+5.94
-3.97
+5.69
+1.70
113,456
168.80
150.90
224.65
+15.54
+15.17
+11.98
r+31.19
r+34.76
r+40.27
+7.96
+5.92
+6.30
-8.26
+6.64
-0.18
128,148
153-80
249.49
165.84
liso
1.80
li82
lisa
1.88
1.87
1971
January
February
March
May
+14.10
June
+9.12
+12.08
+13.86
+10.75
July
August
September
+10.11
+3.17
--2.11
+7.46
+2.91
+2.90
+10.47
+6.57
+6.19
r+43.98
rH-43.94
r+40.69
+9.13
+9.92
+11.99
-7.20
+16.03
D +20.42
[0)142,852
147.03
155.56
115.85
October
November
December
+0.53
+9.07
+8.66
+10.79
r+36.52
r+38.96
B)rf48.28
+11.09
H>+15.19
+10.80
-5.54
-0.95
-4.58
pl!7,548
+2.63
+7.11
+6.55
+10.16
144.70
129.00
111.32
+3-16
r+12.59
pfl2.46
+13.43
r+14.30
p+ll,6l
p+34-50
(M)
+7.64
+11.59
-8.51
+7.66
1+5.03
A"
April
0.00
iiai
1.72
liai
li?5
1.94
{H>1.68
1972
January
February
March
(H>3+15.52
April
3
+12. 06
+15.54
+16.66
p+14.00
(NA)
3
H>101.62
191.33
220.66
1.73
+8. 56
May .
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
... .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39P 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)P current low values are indicated by
EDSeries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 33, 34 and 40.
1
Beginning with October 1970, data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
2
7I
See New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended April 5 and 12.
KM) APRIL 1972
O1
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDlT~Con,
LAGGING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Bank
Reserves
Minor Economic
Process
93, Free
reserves ©
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
1970
January
February
March
April
May
June
9.00
-799
-819
-781
7.91
7.16
6.71
8.84
9.00
-704
-795
6.48
7.04
6.74
9.09
9.53
9.70
6.50
6.41
6.24
9.09
9.08
6 57
9 00
6 63
5.93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6 24
5 97
4.49
3.77
3-32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5 92
7.76
5 75
G}5.96
-1,217
-682
-335
October
November .
December
«est Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial
bond yields © bond yields © bond yields© installment
and industrial
bill rate ®
debt
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
-701
July
August
September
lrt
Outstanding& Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
-208
-305
-49
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.65
6 36
6 03
6.53
6 94
6 QQ
6.75
6.59
96,578
996
97 1QA
83 205
8/ 229
ft/ / Ao
6.49
7 on
6 96
97 490
84 770
%
Q7 Q05
85 ?yi
93 3/6
85 /20
6 53
6 20
6 25
98 789
99 021
<3Q 3#n
85 599
86 220
aA p-an
6 39
5 Q3
5 /6
99 298
98 996
99 017
5 36
5 23
5 17
118. Mortgage
*67. Bank
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential©
loans, 35
cities® 1 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
(m)
8*86
q pq
9
Of)
9 10
8
1Q
Q IT
Q "lA
8 50
...
9 11
9 07
9 m
ft/ A/ q
ft? 98?
83 566
8
S on
99 10A
99 206
99 701
83 235
83 709
8? 851
A 5Q
5 37
100 364
5.90
100 857
101,382
83 1^3
83 716
83 701
6 01
Tn? i>p
102 970
103 969
83 101
8/ /37
86 139
6 51
10/ £93
106 159
107 059
85 677
85 598
85 216
6 18
7 &9
7 rq
107,696
iBYLOS 662
(wO
8/ 507
85,145
...
7 y q
/•4-7
8
H7
8
Q7
} C\
1971
January
February
March
-91
-127
-120
April
May
June
-8
-18
-322
July
August
September
[H>-658
October . .
November
December
1972
January
February
March
E> 5.40
8.15
5.94
5.95
lH\6 06
5.08
4.67
8.24
8.14
7.90
5.91
5.78
5.56
-153
-144
4.49
4.19
4.02
7.72
7.67
7.54
5.46
5.48
5.62
5 06
5 20
3.40
3.18
3.72
7.36
7.57
7.53
5.62
5.67
5.12
5.28
5 66
5 31
+153
r+91
p+150
4
H>8.25
5 71
-606
-295
+58
April
May
June
July
August
September
3.78
4.14
4.70
5.&4
+133
6
3.79
5
7. 76
5
5. 75
5.82
5 37
5.21
6
5 51
CMA^
Vim;
7
^9
/O^
707
Of
7 7C
7 89
IW^7 Q7
7 QP
7 8y
7 • 7c
f5
5
eo
7.46
J C
7 • 4P
85 5A/
fLJ\3f>£
fWA^
\n&)
077
.. ,
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by g}; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
precededfl by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short fist" of indicators (chart 68). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36 and 42.
x
No current high. ^The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus, data
4
from that point are not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3Average for weeks ended April 5 and 12.
Average for weeks
ended 5, 12, and 19. 5 Average for weeks ended April 7, 14, and 21. 6 Average for weeks ended April 6, 13, and 20,
82
APRIL 1972
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
HI
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
eaders, reverse trend adusted^series
15,6,10,12,
6, 17, 19, 23,
29,31,113)
ill. Twelve 820. Five
eaders, prior coinciders,
o trend ad- estimated
ustment
aggregate
same com- economic
jonents as activity
n series 810) (series 41,43,
47, 52, 56)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
116.2
116.5
115.0
103.7
103.7
101.9
121.0
121.2
121.2
April
May ...
June
in. 9
113.8
1U.4
101.5
100.1
100.3
July
August
September
116.2
115.2
1U*5
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
1970
January .
February . .
March
830. Six
825. Five
coinciders,es- aggers
i mated aggre- series 44,
gate economic 61, 62, 67,
activity,
71,72) 2
deflated
series 41, 43,
47,520,560)
(1967-100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
series 1( 2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
81 5. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25, 31, 37)
(1967=100) (1967=100)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17, 19)
17. Sensitive
i'nanciat flows
series 33, 85,
12, 113)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
115.5
115.4
115.4
131.9
131.4
131.2
98.3
96.6
94-1
108.0
108.4
105.6
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95-8
95.9
99.2
100.0
98.8
121.6
121.0
121.0
115.6
114.7
114.5
131.3
131.0
131.0
93.2
92.9
93.3
106.1
106.3
106.0
104.2
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
100.6
100.5
100.6
101.5
100.2
99.3
120.9
120.8
120.4
in. 2
114.1
113.7
131.7
132.3
131.9
94.4
92.9
90.9
106.5
106.3
105.6
104.2
102.5
102.1
93.5
93.6
93.6
101.4
100.1
98.3
113.6
113.7
116.0
98.1
97.8
99.5
118.4
117.4
118.9
111.3
110.1
111.3
130.7
129.3
127.5
89.4
90.4
91.9
105.6
106.2
107.9
101.3
102.6
101.8
93.3
92.0
93.3
93.7
91.4
96.5
118.7
120.1
122.6
101.4
102.2
103.9
120.6
121.3
121.9
112.9
113.4
113.8
125.9
124.2
124.2
93.1
93.7
94.1
108.9
108.6
110.0
102.9
102.3
102.7
95.6
98.1
99.0
98.6
100.4
104.5
124.3
125.5
125.4
105.0
105.6
105.2
122.6
123.6
125.2
114.3
114.8
116.5
123.7
123.4
124.2
94-2
94.1
94.2
109.7
111.5
111.9
103.3
102.6
101.1
100.5
101.1
100.6
106.1
105.4
r!07»4
r!09.0
rl09.9
108.6
(1967=100)
127.0
127.5
123.2
106.1
106.1
106.3
123.8
123.9
125.1
m.8
114.7
115.9
124.5
125.9
126.0
93.7
93.2
92.6
113.2
113.8
112.4
102.1
102.3
101.2
100.6
100,3
101.4
r!29-9
131.1
r!32.6
rl07.3
107.9
rl08.7
125.2
J26.3
127.0
115.9
117.0
117.5
125.9
125.7
rl2-5.8
93.3
95.5
95.7
115.0
115,3
116.1
101.0
100.9
r!02.3
101.1
rlOO.5
rlQ2.1
104.5
r!04.9
1*105.2
134*0
109.5
109.8
r!34.9
3
3
E> 136.1 H> 110.3
129.2
119.5
120.2
4
[H> 120.7
r!25.7
r!25.8
[R>pl26.7
r97.8
E>p98.4
(MA)
i> 117.2
rl!5.6
P115.1
r!04.4
4 130.3
r!03.6
rl03-2
E>pl04.1
r!03.5
E>P1°9.9
(HA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
COMPOSITE INDEXES
E) 131.0
rf.04.0
E>pio5.i
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by E); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44 t 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; V, estimated; "a" r anticipated;
and "NA n t not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
^Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
^Data beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67).
Occludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
ttCII APRIL 1972
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy
435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
ity: percent
sentiment
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966:100)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
157.6
159.4
163.0
163.7
92.3
93.9
95.5
96.7
.18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
163.4
164.1
166.1
160.3
97.9
98.7
99.6
103.9
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
100.5
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4
101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0
102.6
101.1
102.6
99.1
170.5
175.0
174.1
175.6.
100.5
100.5
100.3
101.5
19
20
18
16
26
21
20
19
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
a!86.6
a!87.7
al01.5
al01.9
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
104.4
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
99.5
101.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a87.54
a89.09
(NA)
87.5
(NA)
(NA)
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
.425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Ann. rate,
(Percent)
(Percent)
mil. cars)
2-quarter moving average
c. Anticid. Anticipated
pated
as percent of
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, actual
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
(Percent)
b. Actual
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
40.0
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17,6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.1
7.1
7.7
6.3
7.4
7.1
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
103
111
101
111
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
U.I
14-5
12.5
13.6
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.1
8.5
8.2
8.7
6.7
7.8
8.3
8.4
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
115
103
92
90
51.4
51.0
35.1
35.7
12.6
12.5
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
8.0
8.3
8.4
8.0
101
15.9
16.1
9.7
9.4
6.2
6.7
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter ,
1973
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§>. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43, 44, and 45.
84
APRIL 1972
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span) (4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
78
79
77
76
80
34
78
76
S3
86
83
59
60
58
58
60
60
60
59
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
70
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
76
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
55
58
58
56
82
86
(NO
76
82
(M)
83
CM)
58
60
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
58.3
63.9
66.7
53.3
81
80
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
50.0
61.1
44.4
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
70
70
74
(M)
77.8
75.0
44.4
(NO
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)
83.3
66.7
75.0
41.7
94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
D444. Net sales, manu- D446. Number of employfacturing and trade1
ees, mfg. and trade 1
Actual
Anticipated
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
1
anri trarip
Anticipated
Actual
D462. Manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
85
79
80
80
80
91
90
90
84
84
84
80
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
86
80
81
80
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
70
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
74
80
82
82
82
86
84
73
74
80
80
80
80
68
74
(M)
(NA)
70
78
(NA)
67
74
78
80
80
81
82
80
82
82
62
61
64
58
84
82
82
80
78
78
80
77
62
62
62
60
60
62
65
65
80
80
71
72
(NO
61
66
(MO
66
68
66
66
66
61
62
58
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
84
84
85
85
71
70
70
68
(4-Q span)
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
D466. Retail trade1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1
(4-Q span)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter.,.
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
72
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
ItCII APRIL 1972
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500, Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series' 512)
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(Mi!, dol.)
1970
January
February.,
March
+183
+267
+156
3,406
3,546
3,375
1,174
l,56l
1,578
261
3,222
3,279
3,219
April
May
June
+148
+324
+462
3,410
3,661
3,727
1,493
1,175
1,342
261
264
257
3,262
3,337
3,265
July
August
September
+450
+245
+130
3 * 704
3,591
3,553
1,258
1,357
1,674
268
259
257
3.346
3,423
October . .
November
December
+190
+71
+168
3,688
3,499
3,569
1,384
1,364
1,884
229
241
239
3,498
3,428
3,402
1971
January
February
March
+50
+141
+250
3,733
3,691
3,815
1,518
1,472
1,469
236
225
234
3,683
3,550
3.565
April
May
June....
-232
-201
-358
3,521
3,783
3,661
1,431
1,242
1,503
244
237
246
3,754
3,983
4,019
July
August
September
-297
-256
+265
3,493
3,678
4,511
1,298
1,450
1,578
239
256
244
3,790
3,934
4,245
October....
November
December
-821
-227
-274
2,710
3,160
3,859
1,475
1,281
1,766
248
262
284
3,531
3,387
4,132
-319
-598
-584
4,221
3,806
3,891
1,427
TxL.372
£"-9^
~
r290
p279
(MA)
4,540
4,403
4,475
244
252
3 2*>A
1972
January .
February .
March
f
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only,and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
APRIL 1972
IICII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
515. Balance
517. Balance
on goods, services, on current
and remittances
account
(Mil. dol.)
{Mil. dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long term
capital
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1®
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil. dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
1969
338
296
708
669
52
-22
386
328
-292
-543
15
-80
881
1,045
543
683
636
319
rl,150
r6
r56
rp-5U
r808
r-349
r-329
(MA)
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,337
1,659
-679
384
34,930
39,043
42,655
-1,024
-2,864
-1,404
-2,075
-3,478
42,972
43,380
44,201
43,291
r-1,312
r-3,257
r-3,191
p-1,523
r-2,525
r-5,800
r-9,3'03
rp-4,345
]>-5,550
i-5,747
i-12,185
rp-6,285
r45,483
r51,401
r60,770
p64,154
(HA)
(MA)
(HA)
-147
-2,019
-1,070
-1,234
-3,019
-1,996
356
163
125
292
192
-166
'-1,297
-1,254
p-891
r380
r-832
p-871
P-1,453
(HA)
Oft)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
995
670
-868
-675
-570
-340
-832
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve 2
assets ®
(Mil. dol..
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
{Mil. dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Merchandise, adjusted
Good sand services
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
537. Imports
540. Exports
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
54L Imports
(Mil, dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
28,960
34,584
r45,9l5
5
p51,229
14,342
13,504
12,131
p!2,l67
11,995
14,222
14,574
14,811
11,657
13,926
13,866
14,142
7,510
9,490
9,602
9,888
7,589
9,566
9,278
9,397
4,485
4,732
4,972
4,923
4,068
4,360
4,588
4,745
217
217
217
216
15,374
15,806
15,930
15,795
14,493
14,761
14,935
15,125
10,241
10,582
10,696
10,461
9,728
9,831
9,992
10,319
5,133
5,224
5,234
5,334
4,765
4,930
4,943
4,806
180
179
179
179
rl6,539
rl6,628
r!7,087
pO.5,678
r!5,389
rl6,&2
pl7,Q31
P16,192
rll,0l6
rlO,706
rll,475
P9,572
rlO,768
rll,767
r!2,0!5
pll,098
r5,523
r5,922
r5,6l2
p6,106
r4,621
r4,855
r5,0l6
p5,094
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter..
(NO
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
(MA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are incidated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and donot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised, "p", preliminary;
"e", estimates; "a*, anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series ore shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
2
3
•1Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers
under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
4
Data for first quarter 1970 through 3d quarter 1971 are not comparable with earlier data. 5See ( ) on page 8?.
ltd) APRIL 1972
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
Transportation and other services
548. Receipts
549. Payments
from
for
Military transactions
Travel
545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
544. Receipts
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures
abroad®
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil, dol.)
(MiI. dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dot.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol,)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
2,585
2,716
2,767
929
1,078
1,242
1,315
498
518
519
523
820
849
864
857
407
329
442
336
1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251
1,109
1,300
1,295
1,297
1,121
1,246
1,261
1,322
2,925
2,791
2,855
2,839
1,348
1,322
1,284
1,213
556
573
589
601
925
1,010
1,021
997
274
447
327
433
1,182
1,255
1,211
1,203
1,378
1,413
1,463
1,461
1,310
1,343
1,427
1,393
r2,904
r3,248
r2,975
P3,584
rl,072
rl,273
pl,303
r594
r584
r6l6
P66l
r969
rl,088
rl,046
pi,098
r510
r547
r468
P417
1,174
1,214
rl,190
pl,218
rl,543
rl,553
pl,444
rl,363
rl,48l
rl,507
pl,505
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NO
(M)
(NA)
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S,
(Mil. dol.)
561, U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
246
164
152
270
926
999
899
430
1,388
365
396
963
365
499
506
125
-841
-1,344
-1,304
-652
486
105
218
160
1,358
1,257
304
374
720
792
210
-93
4.88
337
-1,237
-364
-890
-1,203
-122
-138
120
92
1,370
1,393
rl,404
P358
559
196
353
388
r582
P9U
P-79
r-1,243
r-1,264
r-1,212
P-875
r-675
r-2,077
P-1,327
(NA)
(NA)
-29
-426
21
-126
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
897
934
-198
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
-16
r-388
p!20
1972
First quarter..,
Second quarter,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(MA)
r-829
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" B not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
6
For series 532, page 87: Eata for 4th quarter reflect increases resulting from revaluations tinder the Smithsonian Agreement
of December 18, 1971, the inclusion of new reporting banks, and the reclassification of certain accounts previously classified
- as "official institutions." The figure for the 4th quarter 1971, on the old basis, is $51,806.
APRIL 1972 ltd)
Digitized for00
FRASER
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expend tures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol,)
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
625. Military
prime contract,
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
1970
January.
February
March
-4! 5
19i! 6
196 ii
78^9
7,04.5
6,516
6,519
1,807
1,523
1,669
3.45
3.59
3.53
1.90
1.74
1.58
2,855
2,623
2,904
193 id
207^9
75^1
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,559
1,486
1,771
3.37
3.60
3.42
1.38
1.89
1.85
2,591
-14 li
July
August
September
19l!3
206*.7
74.*2
7,111
6,035
6,407
1,825
1,332
1,542
4-18
3.67
3.19
3.07
1.85
2.00
2,717
-15 ii
October
November
December
-26! 5
189.3
6,251
7,166
7,195
1,459
1,902
1,912
3.12
3.81
3.97
2.12
2.02
2.05
3,464
2,746
7,055
6,928
6,793
2,038
2,010
1,528
3.85
3.25
3.28
2.17
2.36
1.58
2,508
6,991
6,257
5,830
1,686
1,457
1,340
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.50
1.57
1.68
2,751
2,112
2,367
April
May .
June.
.. .
209*. 8
73.2
2,545
2,896
2,782
2,113
3,181
1971
January
February
March
-16 \2
April
May
June
-23 '.7
July
August
September
-26!?
197 id
224 '.6
70.*2
7,960
6,696
5,470
2,577
1,672
1,127
4.25
3.63
3.02
2.90
2.15
1.47
3,082
3,078
2,769
October
November
December
7,156
r-25.7
1-203.0
228 i?
7lii
6,753
7,656
2,001
1,700
2,096
3.25
3.95
3.69
1.95
2.11
2.01
2,392
3,209
3.79
3.12
(M)
(MO
p236iZ
p76i6
r3.45
P3.48
rl.78
3,690
2,937
pi. 77
(MO
196 [5
197." 7
212! 7
221 iZ
72^6
71.*4
2,619
3,398
3,016
1972
January
February
March
7,738
(MA)
2,634
(NA)
April
May .
June
juiy
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
ItCII
APRIL 1972
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
21lc. Change
211. Index
over l-quarter
spans 1
(1958=100)
1970
January
February
March
129!9
July
August
September
131.4
133^1
135!6
April
May
June
136.6
July
August
September
137!8
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March. .
781. Index ®
(1967=100)
78 lc. Change
over l-montti
span x
(Percent)
78lc. Change
over 6-month
span 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
783. Commodities less
food
784. Services®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
113.3
113.9
114-5
0.5
0.6
0.4
6.7
6.5
6.0
113.5
114.3
114.4
110.3
110.5
110.7
117.1
118.0
119.3
4.7
115.2
115.7
116.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
5.5
4.9
5.2
114.9
115.1
115.0
111.4
112,0
112.4
120.1
120.7
121.4
4.7
116.7
116.9
117.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
5.0
4.7
4.9
115.1
115.1
115.5
112.6
112.9
113.5
122.0
122.7
123.5
5.2
118,1
118.5
119.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
4.9
4.8
4.1
115.5
115.6
115.5
1U.O
114.5
115.3
124.1
124.9
125.6
5.8
.• .
119.2
119.4
119.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.6
4.1
4.0
115.5
116.1
117.2
115.5
115.4
115.6
126.3
126.6
126.6
5.0
120.2
120.8
121.5
0,3
0.6
0,5
3.9
4.1
3.9
118.2
118.4
119.0
115.8
116.6
117.0
126.8
127.5
128.2
3.6
121.8
122.1
122.2
0,2
0,3
0,,1
3.6
2.8
2.7
119.1
119.2
118.9
117.1
117.5
117.5
128.8
129.4
129.8
1.8
122. A
122.6
123.1
0,,1
0,2
0.4
2.S
3.3
3.1
118.9
119.7
120.5
117.5
117.5
117.9
130.0
130.4
130.8
123.2
123.8
124-0
0.3
0,,5
0,,0
120.3
122.4
122.6
118.1
118.0
118.3
131.5
131.8
132.0
138. *4
P4.6
P139.9
782. Food
All items
4.6
12^4
April
May
June
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer price indexes
.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: l-montji changes are placed on the latest month, 1-quarter changes are placed on
1st month of the 2nd quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
APRIL
1972
HOI
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
HI PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities ©
58. Manufactured goods ®
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. Index®
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over l-month
spans 1
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
109.3
109.7
109.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
111.7
112.0
112.4
112.9
113.5
113.6
108.3
108.7
108.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.8
3.9
3.8
April
May
June,.
109.9
110.1
110.3
109.6
109.7
110.0
112.6
111.5
110.9
112.2
109.8
110.0
109.3
109.7
109.8
0.4
0.5
0.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
July
August
September
110.9
110.5
111.0
110.6
110.6
110.8
111.8
112.3
112.4
111.0
109.5
112.6
110.0
110.2
110.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
4.1
3.3
3.4
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
111.0
110.9
111.0
111.2
111.2
111.2
112.2
112.5
111.6
110.2
108.5
108.2
111.3
111.3
111.7
0.5
0.1
0.3
3.3
3.2
3-3
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.5
113.2
114.3
109.0
113.4
112.0
112.2
112.5
112.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3-3
4.0
4.1
113.3
113.8
114.3
113.0
113.5
113.8
114.3
115.0
114.1
113.6
112.4
114.3
113.3
113.7
113.9
0.5
0.4
0.3
4.9
5.7
5.0
114.6
114.5
114-9
111.0
114.2
110.9
114.5
115.1
115.0
0.7
0.5
-0.1
3.4
2.5
2.4
1.7
1.4
2.3
April .
May .
June.
..
July
August
September .
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
114.9
114.5
114-.7
114.5
114.8
114-0
114.4
114.5
115.4
114.5
114.5
115.1
114.6
115.2
116.8
113-8
113.8
117.0
115.0
114.9
115.3
-0.3
0.0
0.3
116.3
117.3
117.4
115.7
116.5
116.7
116.8
118.7
119.2
117.9
120.2
118.6
115.9
116.5
116.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2nd month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4/bh month.
KCII
APRIL 1972
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
859. Real
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
spendable
private nonfarm economy
avg. wkly.
earnings
Current dollar compensation
Real earnings
nonagri.prod.
ornonsupv.
741c.Change 741c. Change workers
745c. Change 745c. Change
745. Index
over 6-month
overl-quarter over4-quarter
over 1-month
8
spans2
spans ^
spans
spans 2
(Ann.rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(1967 dol.) (1967=100)
percent)
(Percent)
percent)
percent)
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj. 1
Year
and
month
Current dollar earnings
740c. Change 740c. Change 741. Index
over 1-month over 6-month
spans2
spans3
(Ann.rate,
percent)
(Percent)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
740. Index
(a)
1970
January
February
March
117.4,
118.0
118.8
0.3
0.5
0.7
6.1
6.0
6.2
103.5
103.4
103.7
April
May
June
119.3
120.0
120.6
0.4
0.6
0.5
7.0
7.8
7.4
103.6
103.7
103.8
-0.1
July...
August.
September
121.4
122.5
123.2
0.7
0.9
0.6
7.0
6.9
7.4
104.2
104-8
104.8
October
November
December
123.4
124.1
125.0
0.2
0.6
0.7
7.6
6.9
6.8
104.5
104.8
105.0
1971
January
February
March
126.0
126.7
127.3
0.8
0.6
0.5
7.7
8.3
7.1
105.6
105.9
106*2
April
May
June . .
128.1
129.1
129-3
0.6
0.8
0.2
6.4
6.8
6.4
106.6
106.8
106 ,,5
July
August
September
130.0
130.9
131.3
0.5
0.7
0.3
5.3
3.8
6.6
106,9
107,3
107,5
0.4
0.4
0.2
October
November
December
1972
131.4
131.6
r!33-5
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1
rl.4
107,4
107,3
108,5
January
February
March
rl34.5
rl34.7
P135.5
rO.7
rO.l
pO.6
r7.1
r5.8
P6.5
r!09«0
r!08,6
p!09.2
-0.6
-0.4
0.2
90.55
90.53
90.48
119.7
90.02
89.62
89.98
121.5
C)el
1.4
2.8
2.1
0.4
0.6
0.0
1.9
2.1
2.3
90.23
90.53
89.16
124^2
2.6
2.1
2.6
89.42
89.60
89.88
126.0
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.9
4.0
3.0
91-27
91.77
92.09
128.5
0.4
0.2
2.5
2.6
2.4
92.32
92.06
92.33
130.7
1.6
0.9
3.8
91.95
92.35
91.80
rl32! 4
,r4.1
92.82
92.89
93.71
rl34.0
94.85
r95.04
P95-50
p!3o!9
-0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.2
-0.3
1.1
rO.5
r-0.4
pO.6
.
r2.4
P3.3
7.2
7.3
6.3
7.0
8.9
?!4
5.9
7.*5
8.5
6l6
6.8
6.1
r5.3
6^5
r4.9
P9.2
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The Y indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
•"•Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
- Percent changes are cents-red within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the latest month, 1-quarter changes are placed on
the 1st month of the 2nd quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3rd quarter. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
92
APRIL 1972
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967-100)
746c.. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ®
748. First
year average changes
(Ann. rate,
percent)
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
770. Index
(1967-100)
770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1970
105 !i
April ...
May
June
105.0
July
August
September .
106."i
October
November
December
106.2
(1967=100)
(3)
(3)
January
February
March
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
0.8
11.3
-0.2
103.0
16.3
103*7
16.0
0.4
1051 3
10.6
1.9
103 i
3^8
104.6
3.*6
104*1
3^6
105^8
3^8
106! 5
peis
107!l
0.2
7.5
3.0
102!i
6.1
11.6
2^
1*9
3.1
10.9
1^3
4.2
-.1.6
8.0
1^5
105^3
1971
January
February
March
plO.5
5.1
; ..
10?! 6
April
May
June
108 [2
July
August
September
108.*5
October
November
December
rl09.2
106^9
plO.4
2.3
107.4
P15.0
4.0
p8.4
108 [5
P2.9
r2.5
1.9
P8.3
2^8
rl.2
6.2
P8.5
2.2
PU.7
pll.9
r3.2
r!08!3
r!09.*3
1972
January
February .
March
P5.6
..
pllO.7
CNA)
P2.1
(NA)
p!09!9
p!09O
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3rd quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
KCII APRIL 1972
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842.
Employed
(Thous.)
843. Unemployed
(Thous.)
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other
races
847. White
(Percent)
(Percent)
1970
January
February .
March
82,061
82,187
82,652
78,853
78,752
79,018
3,208
3,435
3,634
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.7
4.1
4.5
13.6
13.5
13.6
3.6
3.8
4.0
6.5
7.1
7.2
April
May
June
82,769
82,504
82,388
78,908
78,514
78,412
3,861
3,990
3,976
3.2
3.4
3.4
4.4
4.9
4.6
15.2
14.3
15.1
4.2
4.5
4.4
8.2
8.0
8.5
July
August
September
82,804
82,769
82,945
78,631
78,514
78,448
4,173
4,255
4,497
3.7
3.7
3.9
4.9
4.8
5.1
14.4
15.8
16.5
4.7
4.7
5.0
8.2
8.5
8.7
October
November
December
83,266
83,485
78,678
78,548
78,427
4,588
4,870
5,058
4.0
4.2
4-5
5.1
5.6
5.7
16.7
17.2
17.6
5.1
5.4
5.6
9.0
9.0
9.6
January
February .
March
83,730
83,361
83,455
78,718
78,475
78,446
5,012
4,886
5,009
4.3
4.3
4.3
5.7
5.6
5-8
17.5
16.9
17.5
5.5
5.4
5-5
9.5
9.6
9.5
April . .
May
June
83,788
83,986
83,401
78,732
78,830
78,600
5,056
5,156
4,801
4.4
4.5
4.3
5.9
5.9
5.6
17.0
17.4
16.2
5.6
5.6
5.3
July
August. . . .
September
83,930
84,313
84,491
79,014
79,199
79,451
4,916
5,114
5,040
4-3
4.5
4.5
5.7
5.8
5.7
16.5
17.1
16.9
5.4
5.6
5.4
10.0
October
November
December
84,750
85,116
85,225
79,832
80,020
80,098
4,918
5,096
5,127
4.3
4-4
4.3
5.5
5.8
5.8
16.7
16.7
17.3
5-3
5.6
5.4
10.4
85,707
85,535
86,313
80,636
80,623
81,241
5,071
4,912
5,072
4.2
4.0
4.1
5.5
5.0
5.4
17.8
18.8
17.9
5.3
5.1
5.3
10.6
10.5
10.5
83, as
1971
9.8
10.5
9.4
9.9
10.4
9.4
10.4
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; u p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
94
APRIL 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1969
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
717.2
-4.2
724.3
731*4
738.6
+0.1
+3.6
+13.4
746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4
+26.6
+33.2
+39.0
+54-5
729.7
735.8
740.7
778.5
786.7
751.3
803-5
+48.8
+50.9
+54.4
+52.2
p76l.O
812.0
lH-51.0
721.4
724.2
727.3
725.2
1970
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
1971
First quarter
Second quarter. —
Third quarter
Fourth Quarter
795.1
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r"indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a",anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1972.
KCII APRIL 1972
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ffl
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
(Ratio)
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers*
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(1967-100)
5!i
0.079
0.763
0.709
0.689
5^4
91.4
91.1
91.3
0.082
0.649
0.623
0.563
5.*3
2.93
2.97
2.97
88.0
87.8
86.3
0.083
0.500
0.477
0.471
5. *2
1.60
1.57
1.56
2.98
2.97
2.87
83.5
85.0
84.3
0.081
0.445
0.469
0.463
5.*3
p75.*4
1.56
1.55
1.54-
2.83
2.72
2.58
83.0
81.6
81.8
0.086
0.459
0.456
0.515
5. '3
p73i9
1.55
1.55
1.55
2.74
2.74
2.71
83.0
83.4
85.0
0.081
0.515
0.495
0.473
5.*6
1.56
1.53
1.54
2.70
2.64
2.73
83.3
82.1
r8l.9
0.484
0.473
0.494
5.*6
1.50
pi. 50
(NO"
2.59
2.61
(MA)
r82.3
rSl.8
p82.4
0.499
rO.527
pO.528
53
3.17
3.U
3.14
95.5
94.4
95.5
April ..
May
June
p79.7
1.61
1.58
• 1.58
3.14
3.03
3.00
93.5
92.4
91.9
July
August
September
p7fl.*2
1.59
1.59
1.60
2.97
2.97
2.89
October
November
December
P74.'i
1.63
1.66
1.62
P74l7
April
May
June
July
August
September
1972
January
February
March
(Percent)
(Ratio)
1.011
0.945
0.844
1.59
1.58
1.59
October
November
December
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ©
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1
Revised^
pSo!?
1971
January
February
March
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable persona!
income
rp73.8
• ••
p7^5
.
0.069
.. *
0.078
* ••
pO.074
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
""Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this series.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
96
APRIL 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries) 1
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
mfg.,
D19. Index of stock
D23. Index of industrial
prices, 500 common
materials prices (13
FNCB
2
(about l t OOQ stocks (75 industries)®
industrial materials)
corporations)
1-quarter
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1970
January
February
March
23.8
28.6
31.0
9.5
9.5
26,2
47.1
48.6
50.0
51.4
42.9
37.1
47
29
51
43.3
23.3
82.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
April
May
June
23.8
26.2
52.4
11.9
14.3
7.1
54.3
62,9
54.3
42.9
45.7
34.3
53
32
47
16.4
2.7
47.9
6.9
25.0
27.8
61.5
53.8
19.2
34.6
34.6
38.5
July
August
September
69.0
19.0
9.5
9.5
19.0
42.9
45.7
44.3
45.7
48.6
65.7
65.7
35
24
52
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46.5
72.2
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
15.4
October
November
December
73.8
71.4
71.4
42.9
59.5
45.2
25.7
65.7
60.0
60.0
65.7
51.4
47
35
40
72.2
48.6
98.6
95.8
97.2
98.6
30.8
42.3
19.2
15.4
30.8
46.2
January
February
March
61.9
45.2
76.2
83.3
83.3
85.7
60.0
45.7
60.0
71.4
74.3
82.9
59
29
59
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
April
May
June
42.9
71.4
54.8
78.6
57.1
64.3
44.3
70.0
54.3
80.0
68.6
51.4
35
56
60
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
July
August
September
64.3
38.1
11.9
69.0
81.0
r69.0
50.0
58.6
34.3
65.7
72.9
77.1
76
P53
60
44.4
23.6
71.5
31.9
43.1
44.4
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
October
November
December
81.0
83.3
64.3
r83.3
pSl.O
51.4
68.6
52.9
r88.6
p88.6
P41
*•.
(m)
r48
18.1
2.8
95.8
50.7
59.7
46.2
34.6
61.5
1971
3
53.8
80.8
84.6
1972
31.0
r73.8
P40.5
January
February
March
65.7
r45.7
P52.9
CM)
p63
89.6
70.1
76.4
65.4
73.1
76.9
3
April
May
June
65. 4
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent 9* series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span;l-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; M p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. .Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for April 4> 11? and 18.
BUI
APRIL 1972
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
D41. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month
span
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
6-month
span
1- month
span
6-month
span
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
(3)
1970
January
February
March
31.9
25.5
44.7
4.3
2.1
11.7
40.0
41.7
36.7
33.3
31.7
28.3
12 .5
66 .7
31 .2
33.3
29.2
27.1
86.4
77.3
72.7
79,5
77,3
75.0
60.9
58,7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June
25.5
63.8
42.6
6.4
12.8
2.1
26.7
20.0
26.7
25.0
18.3
16.7
60,4
31.2
31.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
68.2
68.2
56.8
77.3
84.1
86.4
82.6
54.3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July...
August
September
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
55.3
33.3
25.0
55.0
16.7
20.0
20.0
64.6
33 .,3
33,3
33.3
33.3
37.5
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77,3
56.5
65.2
50.0
78,3
69.6
67.4
October
November
December
53.2
57.4
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
31.7
38.3
58.3
25.0
31.7
33.3
33,3
25,0
54,2
37.5
39.6
41.7
75.0
61.4
56.8
72,7
81.8
81.8
67.4
54.3
47.8
56.5
78.3
91.3
January
February
March
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
51.7
41.7
40.0
48.3
65.0
46.7
50.0
50.0
29.2
66.7
70.8
70.8
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
(tt)
April
May ...
June. . .
48.9
44.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
76.7
80.0
33.3
33.3
46.7
65*0
79.2
56.2
47.9
54-2
54.2
66.7
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
July
August
September
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
57.4
63.8
41.7
55.0
91.7
•58*3
55*0
56.7
37.5
47.9
70.8
62.5
54.2
58.3
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
77.3
CM)
87.0
39.1
October .
November
December
57.4
66.0
59.6
70.2
74.5
•51.7
60.0
.48.3
78,3
r90,0
p73«3
62.5
56.2
58.3
r75.0
r79.5
P83.3
25.0
45.5
68.2
75.0
77.3
86.4
47.8
78.3
37.0
1972
January
February
March.
42.6
46.8
59.6
'
1971
r81.7
r66.7
p88.3
r75.0
64.6
p70.8
86.4
90.9
79.5
r45.7
p52.2
(NO
April
May .
June. . .
July
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used ex*
cept in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
^•Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
2
Data beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
98
APRIL 1972
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1971
1972
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
December
January
February r
March P
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
-
All manufacturing industries
39.8
-
(38)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
39.5
+
(12)
39.8
+
(81)
40.1
+
(83)
-
40.3
(64)
40.0
+
(31)
40.5 -
40.4
(74)
(40)
42.1
40.9
40.5
o
-
41.9
40.2
39.9
-
41.7
40.1
39.4
+
+
+
41.8
40.7
39.7
+
+
+
41.9
40.8
40.0
+
o
-
42.0
40.8
39.9
- r41.2
+ r40.9
+ r40.3
+
+
42.5 40.8 +
40.8 -
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
o
-
41.8
38.8
+
-
a.4
39.5
+
+
41.8
40.1
+
o
41.9
40.1
+
41.6
41.0
+
41.8
- r40.6
+
+
42.1 +
41.0 +
42.2
41.1
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
40.2
40.8
-
39.3
40.5
+
+
40.1
40.8
+
+
40.4
41.1
+
+
40.9
41.3
- r40.4
41.0
+
+
41-0 41.3 +
40.8
41.4
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment.
+
40.0
39.9
-
39.6
38.5
+
+
39.9
40.5
+
o
40.1
40.5
+
+
40.3
41.7
-
r40.1
r40.7
+
+
40.6 41.9 +
40.2
42.0
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
o
o
39.8
39.2
_
39.7
38.7
+
+
39.9
38.9
+
+
40.2
39.1
+
+
40.4
39.2
-
r40.3
39.0
+
+
40.7 39.5 -
40.3
39.3
o
-
40.5
37.1
o
-
40.5
36.6
-
40.0
34.7
o
+
40.0
35.6
+
o
40.3
35.6
r40.1
- 1-34-8
40.0
34.0
+
+
40.1
35.0
+
-
40.7
35.7
-
40.4
35-4
+
+
40.8
36.0
+
+
41.1
36.2
-
41.0
35.9
+
41.3
- r35.7
+
41.2 o
36.3 -
41-2
35.7
Printing and publishing . 0
o
-
42.4
37.5
-
a. 9
-
37.4
+
+
42.0
37.5
+
+
42.3
37.6
o
-
42.3
37.5
o
42.1
37.5
+
o
42.7 37.5 +
42.6
37.7
Chemicals and allied products . „
Petroleum and coal products
+
+
41.5
43.4
+
-
42.1
42.9
-
41.5
42.4
-
41-4
41.8
+
+
41.7
42.7
+ r£L.8
- r42.2
+
41.9 42.0 -
41.7
41.7
-
40.1
37.6
-
40.0
37.3
+
+
40.3
37.9
+
+
40.6
38.3
+
-
40.9
37.9
- r40.8
+ r38.0
+
+
41.0 38.5 -
40.9
38.1
+ 35,099
- 34,505 + 34,556
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
„
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
- 31,758
- 31,026
(59)
(34)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
- 4,184
+ 3,577
+ 4,517
- 3,520
-
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
+ 5,072
- 4,585
+ 5,105
+ 4,628
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+ 7,923
+ 6,418
-
All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 35 components
7,130
6,126
+ 31,126
2
+ 32,564
- 32,138
(69)
(53)
+ 4,809
+ 3,644
+ 4,848
- 3,585
+
+
5,221
3,613
+
-
5,248 + 5,557
3,611 + 3,756
+ 5,292
+ 4,737
-
5,154
4,725
+
o
4,757
5,154
+ 5,732
- 4,743
+
5,512 o 5,510
4,898 + 4,997
- 6,970
+ 6,286
+ 7,575
+ 6,657
-
7,233
+ 9,023
+ 6,758
+
8,404 - 7,875
6,832 + 6,861
(51)
4,488
3,353
-
6,561
(66)
(46)
(53)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (•) - falling.
NA= not available, p = preliminary. r= revised.
^-Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication;
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
!!€!»
APRIL 1972
however, they are all included in the
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
1972
Diffusion index components
August
November
October
September
December
February
January
March
April "
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967=100)
. + 106.1 + 107.5 -
107 «4 - 106.9 - 106.8
+ 110.7
+ 113-0
+ 117.2
+ 119.5
(Dollars)
(62)
Percent rising of 73 components
Copper scrap (tb)
o
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib )
Zincflb )
Burlap (vd,^
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average ....
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
+ .472
•451
+ .056 o .056
+ 31.163 + 32.673 +
+ 1.704 - 1.688 .170 o
+
.170 o
.187 +
.192 o
.436
.055
35.522
1.681
.170
.192
+
.294
.266
.903
.174
17.745
.179
.069
+
+
.284
.266
.903
.166
17.966
.180
.070
+
+
+
+
.291
.265
.905
.173
17.893
.178
.071
+
+
+
+
(62)
(35)
(46)
(54)
o
+
+
+•
+
-
•404
.055
30.738
1.691
.169
.187
+
.302
.264
.904
.185
17.662
.171
.067
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
+
(73)
(65)
.414
.053
29.774
1.691
.171
.208
+ .421
o .053
- 29.685
+ 1.694
.170
+ .225
.327
.265
.918
.185
17.453
.178
.060
+
+
+
+
+
-348
.269
.914
.208
17.419
.185
.062
+ .446
+ .056
+ 30.000
+ 1.736
o .170
+ .237
+ .354
•f .273
+
.916
+ .220
- 17.402
.184
- .060
(77)
(65)
.432
.063
36.998
1.801
.176
.227
+ .461
+ .063
+ 35.130
+ 1.814
+ .173
.218
o
+
_
+
+
+
-363
+ .281
+ 1.128
+ .261
+ 17.837
- .169
- .057
+ .382
+ .290
- 1.126
+ .279
+ 18.419
.163
+ .060
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls...
o
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
+
Lumber and wood products
+
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products. . . „+
Primary metal industries
o
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
+
Instruments and related products. . ,
Miscellaneous manufacturing
, o
Food and kindred products
, Tobacco manufactures
, o
Textile mill products
o
Apparel and other textile products. . +
Paper and allied products
, +
Printing and publishing
„
Chemicals and allied products.
Petroleum and coal products
o
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. .
Leather and leather products
,, +
Mining
, +
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities. . Wholesale trade
+
Retail trade
+
Finance, insurance, real estate. . . * Service
+
Federal government
+
State and local government
+
70,529 +
(55)
94
503
375
497
901
1,016
1,159
1,167
1,248
256
318
1,179
56
841
1,180
520
658
577
115
447
264
609
3,219
4,428
3,844
11,379
3,804
11,946
2,650
10,193
70,853
o
(92)
70,848 +
(52)
71,042 +
(60)
71,185
+r71,584
(82)
(48)
+r71,702
(67)
89
r517
r397
r510
r934
rl,025
rl,177
r 1,205
r 1,223
r262
r329
rl,177
r58
r862
rl,l89
r529
r668
r578
rl!9
r467
r266
92
90
o
94
93
516
+
509 +
519
515 +
+
388
+
383 +
+
391
384
502 +
502
+
502 o
504
922
+
926 +
932
920
+ 1,026 - 1,020 - 1,018 1,011
1,171 + 1,177 - 1,174
+ 1,175 + 1,185 + 1,190 - 1,189 + 1,191
1,216 + 1,230
1,221
+ 1,251
261
261 o
+
260 +
259
316
+
319
319
3H +
+ 1,185 - 1,156 + 1,177 - 1,175
58
56 +
+
58
57
+
842 +
851 +
845 +
855
+ 1,189 + 1,193 + 1,198 - 1,185
530
532
+
533
529
661
661 o
+
661 +
663
581
-1582
580
581 o
116 o
116 +
+
116 o
118
460
458 +
+
458 +
459
260 +
261
261 o
261
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ rl,183
+
58
+
r862
- 1,180
r528
+
r666
+
r58l
114
+
r464
+
262
+
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
616
+
3,250 +
+
4,460 +
3,865 +
+ 11,408 + 3,821 +
+ 11,962 +
+
2,674 o
- 10,181 +
+
r6l6
+ r3,320
+ r4,502
+ r3,902
+rll,545
+ r3,872
+r!2,120
+ r2,675
+rlO,423
r6ll
- r3,239
- r4,483
+ r3,9!8
+rll,573
+ r3,878
+r!2,l64
- r2,672
+rlO,488
521
3,290
4,442
3,873
11,397
3,834
11,996
2,675
10,260
+
525 +
+
3,320 4,434 +
o
3,874 +
+ 11,404 +
+ 3,851 +
+ 12,044 +
2,669 o
+ 10,318 +
607
3,245
4,465
3,884
11,431
3,860
12,089
2,669
10,369
90
r520
r395
510
r934
1,016
rl,!68
rl,192
rl,219
r260
r325
+ 71,978
(88)
o
89
+
523
+
398
+
512
+
954
+ 1,035
+ 1,179
+ 1,219
+ 1,225
+
263
+
331
+ 1,180
+
.61
+
869
o 1,189
+
531
+
669
576
116
+
474
+
269
+
613
+ 3,257
+ 4,528
+ 3,935
+ 11,594
+ 3,887
+ 12,198
o 2,672
+ 10,528
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown aEong with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available,
p - preliminary,
r = revised.
Average for April 4, 11, and 18.
2
SerIes components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally 'adjusted.
5
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for latest month shown are preliminary.
100
APRIL 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
1972
Diffusion index components
August
September
October
November
January1*
December1"
Marchp
February1*
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967-100)
All industrial production
- 105.3
+ 106.2
US)
(71)
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
-
si!6
-
108.0
+
-
94.1
97.3
91.1
+ 106.4
+
(62)
107.0
+ 107.6
+
108.2
+ 108.9
(65)
(71)
+ 102.5
- 105.8
- 106 i* +
+ 106.9 +
102 \3
109.3
- 92.5
+ 101.2
89.8
- 109.3
+
+
+
+
+ 94.5
+ 102.7
+
91.6
+ 114.3
+
+
103.5
+
114.6
+
117.7
+ 110.5
+ 120.7
+ 112.1
- 120.6
+
+
+ 100.9
- 123.7
+ 101.9
+ 126.4
(58)
(56)
(75)
+
93^9
- 105.7
+ 95^7*
+ 106.9
o
109.1
+
+
+
+
110.5
+
+
+
+
+
-
Lumber clay and glass.
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
+ 108.8
113.1
+
+
109.4
113.9
+ 109.9
+ 117.3
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
-
99^6
122.0
+ 100.8
+ 122.2
- 100.3
+ 122.6
+ 101.6
- 120.5
+
100.4
123-9
;
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather.
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
-
110.5
+ ni!o
110.1
+ 100.0
- 87.2
+
-
+
+
+
112.0
!
- 116 iZ
+ 102.9
- lloii
+ 104.3
+ 119. '5
+ 104.5
+ 120 16
+ 104.7
+ 122ii
+ 105.6
- laiiz
+
-
- 128^2
+ 115.7
- 129.0
+ 136 ".7
+ 116.0
- 127.6
- 130!3
+ 118.3
- 126.6
+ 136!?
+ 118.4
+ 128.6
+ 133 i 2
+ 118.9
- 127.8
+
-
13i.*3
+ 117 io
98.5
_
_
-
115 is
93.8 i
+ 116.' 6
+ 103.8
91^4
106.9
+
+
93^6
107.1
Machinery and allied goods
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products.
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
95.0
97.8
91.7
95.3
98.9
92.4
111.2
93.3
99.6
91.6
110.4
+ noii
+
117.9
+ 109.6
93.6
102.1
90.0
111.7
94.9
91.0
115.2
121.0
(NA)
(NA)
+
96.0
84.1
+ iivis
+
101.7
+ 127i6
+ 115.8
+ 129-9
_ lu'.o
+
+
99.5
87.6
129^7
113.7
129.6
110.2
99.5
82.9
99.7 i
86.8
- 108.2
+ 100.0
+
89-4
+
103.7
-
(NA)
(NA)
86.1
+ 106.3
_
115.6
116.5
+
98.2
_ Ilii9
+ 100.3
o
-
109.4
108.8
+ 109.7
- 107.7
29.1
- 107.3
+ 55.7
- 107.2
+
-
112.4
106.1
- 104.8
+ 107.2
99.6
+ 107.7
+
+
104.*8
+
+ 117 ii
+
91.7
+ 136.7
+ 93.4
+ 137 i?
- 92.7
- 129.*1
+ 94.3
-
91.4
109^7
90.1
98.2
115.1
(NA)
(M)
+
103.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
113.1
+
107.0
+
+
131.6
134.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
115.8
116.7
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
-
127^6
90.9
110.6
108.3
104.3
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) « falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
IICII
APRIL 1972
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components; Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
1972
Diffusion index components
September
August
November
October
March
February
January
December
054. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales.
+
,
+
Grocery stores
e
Eating and drinking places
,
+
Department stores
+
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise). . . +
Variety stores
,
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe' stores
+
Furniture home furnishings stores*
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
+
+
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D58.
All manufacturing industries „
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
(87)
(39)
6,950 +
6,993
3,511 +
384
3,618
370
936
509
1,186 307 +
6,284
546
2,511
1,169
741
+
+
+
+
+ 35,574
(78)
(48)
+ 6,944
+ 2,677
+ 3,641
+
395
(37)
(46)
_ r6,86Q +
o r2,745 - r3,578 +
+
396 +
7,068
2,702
3,630
397
(NA)
(NA)
NA)
NA)
572
388
715
295
+ r599 +
+
390 +
r677
. r286
620
417
655
281
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
571
385
666
284
+
568
384
665
291
+
+
+
+
577
397
699
304
903
477
1,179
309
+
+
+
+
964
510
1,193
322
+
+
946
520
1,255
320
+
+
-
6,,809
556
2,523
1,138
754
_
6,564
545
2,494
1,133
748
+ 6,690
+
558
+ 2,521
+
1,141
742
_
+
954
558
1,249
299
+ rl,020
+ r6Q7
+ Pi, 359
+
326
.
1,019
586
1,259
319
6,162
477
+ 2,523
+ 1,165
728
_ r6,028
+
550
- r2,506
- Pl.137
r727
.
+
+
+
+
6,024
566
2,511
1,143
755
(NA)
NA
NA
NA
NA
+
114.9
-
(91)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
134.6
110.2
124.2
125.3
117.1
119.6
119.8
120.3
118.0
109.9
114.9
113.0
- 115.4
+ 112.5
+
92.7
+ 103.1
+ 113.6
+ 110.6
_ 1Q4.3
+ 107.3
+ 109.8
+ 114.4
114.7 -
114.5 o
(39)
(25)
115.7 +
116.5 +
116.7
(86)
(91)
(80)
o
o
+
134.3
110.2
124.2
125.6
o
-
131.8
110.2
124.1
125.5
+
+
-
116.5
120.3
119.9
120.2
117.8
109.7
113.8
1X3.0
o
o
o
+
o
116.3
120.3
119.7
120.2
117.8
109.6
115.2
13-3.0
114.6
U2.2
92.5
103.1
1X3.8
U0.6
104.3
107.3
109.7
1X4.7
o
114-1
112.2
92.4
102.5
113.8
110.6
104-2
106.3
109.5
114.7
o
o
+
o
o
o
_
+
o
o
,.
_
o
H4.5 +
(46)
H5.1 +
(68)
131.3
110.2
124.0
125.3
116.0
120.3
119.7
120.2
117.8
109.3
H5.3
113.1
+
o
+
o
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
132.7
110.2
124.2
125.3
114.9
120.4
120.9
120.5
117.9
109.3
117.5
113.2
114.4
112.5
92.3
+
103.2
o
113.8
110.6
0
_
103-8
. 106.2
o
109-5
+
H5.1
+
+
115.9
113-6
91.5
104.3
113.8
110.7
103.4
106.1
109-4
116.2
o
o
o
o
o
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
+
+
134-9
110.2
124.3
126.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
114.4
121.6
121.3
120.8
118.3
109.5
117.9
113.7
+
+
+
+
o
117.2
116.7
92.0
105.4
113.8
+
no. 8
o
o
+
+
103.4
106.1
109.5
117.8
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o)
A = not available. p = preliminary, r= revised.
a
3
(52)
+ <?,994
+ 2,746
- 3,607
- 345
6,851
2,632
3,554
382
-
o r34,886 + r35,127 + 35,996
- 34,896
+
+
2,614 - 2,573
577
409
686
294
- 34,964
INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967=100)
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
,
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products . .>
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
,
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products . ,
General purpose machinery and equipment
34,655 + 35,219
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
137.7
110.8
124-6
128.2
115.0
122,0
123.2
121.2
118.8
110.0
118.1
114-0
+
117.2
+
122,1
+
124.1
+
121.5
+
119.0
+
110.1
o
118.1
+ 114-2
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.
+
118.8
118.0
92.2
105.9
114-0
111.6
103.5
105.5
109.?
119.1
118.6
+
119.6
92.0
+
106.1
+ 114-1
+
112.3
- 103.4
+ 106.3
108.9
+ 123.0
+
+
+
+
unchanged
6 1and1 M7= falling
5 -
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
The diffusion index inc3.udes estimates for six types of stores not shown are preliminary.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
102
APRIL 1972
139.5
110.9
124-8
128.3
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q CONSUMER PRICES
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices ©
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices©
135, West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices ®
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices ©
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices ©
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices ®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967-100)
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967=100)
1970
January,
February
March
113
in
114
114
115
107
108
108
114
115
115
116
117
118
107
107
108
107
108
108
115
116
114
109
114
ill
112
112
110
112
125
125
124
April
May
June
115
116
116
112
112
113
117
117
117
108
109
109
116
117
117
119
118
117
108
109
109
108
108
108
115
114
115
111
109
110
126
124
122
July
August
September
117
117
118
113
113
113
118
118
119
109
109
109
118
118
118
118
118
122
109
109
110
108
108
107
114
114
113
109
111
112
124
124
125
. .
October
November .
December
1971
January.
February
March
118
118
119
113
113
113
120
121
121
109
110
110
119
119
120
124
123
124
111
111
112
104
103
105
113
114
114
112
110
112
124
125
126
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
112
113
111
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
115
115
116
113
110
109
127
129
130
April .
May . . . .
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
'115
116
116
111
rill
112
128
126
130
July
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
127
126
131
114
115
115
106
105
106
117
119
120
rill
rill
rl!2
132
132
134
October
November
December
1972
January
February
. ...
March
122
123
123
117
117
118
131
132
132
116
117
117
126
126
127
131
129
129
116
117
117
106
107
108
120
120
121
111
111
rllO
135
136
135
123
124124
118
119
119
133
(NA)
118
119
(NA)
127
128
(NA)
130
130
131
117
(NA)
108
109
pllO
122
p!22
pllO
(NA)
P137
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
APRIL 1972
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Year
and
month
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD,1 127. Italy,
European index of
countries, industrial
production
index of
industrial
production
Q STOCK PRICES
19. United
States,
Index of
Stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®
146. France,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967-100) (1967-100)
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
148, Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
1970
January
February
March...
134
136!
136
148
152
154
122
124
125
118
119
120
98
95
96
115
113
116
139
135
131
153
U9
146
152
U9
147
167
165
172
116
116
116
April
May
June....
135
138
134
157
157
163
125
125
124
118
117
116
93
83
82
113
97
94
129
116
113
HO
136
132
147
135
129
171
148
U9
120
112
106
jufy
August
September
135
133
132
164
162
164
124
123
124
118
112
119
82
85
90
93
95
99
115
118
120
136
138
135
127
133
128
150
151
U8
103
107
103
October
November
December
1971
January.
February
March
135
133
134
163
160
164
125
125
125
117
120
118
92
92
98
101
100
104
128
120
121
137
134
135
126
121
119
145
145
140
101
96
94
1U
140
138
164
164
168
127
127
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
U5
151
161
91
94
93
April ...
May
June
140
137
139
165
158
168
127
126
127
113
113
1U
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
U6
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
July.. .
August. .
September
139
132
137
169
168
171
128
125
128
112
104
117
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
Ul
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
138
135
128
167
170
r!70
rl2.9
128
r!26
116
117
.119
106
101
108
100
98
107
160
156
165
118
124
124.
124
124
133
166
168
178
78
75
77 ;
pHO
(NO
172
p!74
(NO
P130
(NA)
pl!8
(N/0
112
114117
117
119
121
175
180
p!86
128
130
rpLU
137
146
152
195
204
215
78
rp76
P?4
pl!9
p!22
p!90
p!54
p!57
P229
p79
April
May
June
July ...
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
APRIL 1972
lt€l»
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
1.50
1.48
1.61
1.45
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.56
1.47
10.14
14.33
10.09
.89
.57
.83
t1)
2.25
1.79
1.82
1.56
1.56
1.66
2.67
1.82
1.51
7.96
9.09
9.95
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1 . Average workweek of production workers, mfg
*5. Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures ®
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan '53-Dec 70
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan.'53-Apr.71 ...
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Feb. 71 ...
*17.
*19
*23.
24.
28.
*29.
*41.
42.
46.
*47.
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (§)
Industrial materials prices @
New orders, producers' capital goods industries
New private housing units started, total2 .
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan '53-Jul 71
Jan. '59-May 70 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ...
Jan '53-Dec '69
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...
48.
*52
53.
*54.
55
*56.
58.
59.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction
Sales of retail stores
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities {§)
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Retail sales, deflated
Jan. '53-July 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 ...
Jan '53-Oct 70
Jan. '53-June 7] ...
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 71
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value mfrs ' inventories of finished goods
Consumer installment debt
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71 Book value manufacturing and trade inventories
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding ...
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 ...
810
81 1
813.
814
815
816
12 leading indicators reverse trend adjusted
12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adj . .
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments ...
. ..
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability .
...
.
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jan. 72 ...
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
.95
.86
.89
.85
.84
.93
825
817
820
830
5 coincident indicators deflated
Sensitive financial flows
5 coincident indicators
6 lagging indicators
Jan '53-Jan. 72
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-July 71 ...
Jan. '53-July 71 ...
,88
.96
.90
.86
*62.
65
66.
69.
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
....
0.46
4.86
3.37
6.68
9.08
5.00
.85
0.42
4.32
3.00
6.41
8.94
4.71
.63
2.50
2.23
22.11
21.50
.62
2.49
1.39
4.29
7.05
4.16
.29
.33
2.55
.55
1.74
.98
3.93
6.74
3.60
.13
.25
1.49
0.17
2.10
1.26
1.54
1.12
1.39
.60
.93
2.20
.27
1.59
.88
1.40,
1.52
1.73
.25
.20
1.97
2.48
2.06
2.38
4.15
8.00
3.39
1.05
2.41
9.77
3
3
3
5
6
4
2
3
6
2.06
1.09
1.11
2.80
4.44
2.08
3
2
2
3
5
3
1
2
1
1
.81
.62
.69
.98
.84
.69
.51
.64
.76
.74
1.94
2.46
2.65
1.85
1.64
1.85
5.57
2.29
3.50
3.60
1.56
1.63
1.77
1.61
1.53
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.43
1.53
2
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
.53
.49
.84
.96
.67
.76
.89
.74
2.77
5.97
2.82
2.08
4.73
2.54
3.80
1.91
1.50
1.59
1.54
1.56
1.72
1.66
1.64
1.53
13.06
31.57
14.87
17.67
11.21
20.09
2
1
1
2.12
.97
.51
3.75
.13 16.31
1.60
1.44
1.59
10.62
15.79
30.29
16.31
2
1
1
1
.83
.35
.36
.44
1.96
7.62
8.15
4.83
1.55
1.48
1.62
1.67
15.79
31.57
20.00
13.06
3.14
7.62
8.15
4.83
1
1
1
2
2
1
.71
.82
.78
.64
.92
.77
3.87
2.78
3.42
2.01
2.18
3.12
1.54
1.56
1.66
1.46
1.58
1.71
11.00
12.67
3.87
2.78
3.42
4.08
3.01
3.12
1
3
1
1
.60
.95
.61
.37
5.30
2.01
5.29
7.16
1.53
1.68
1.48
1.53
17.54
1
6
6
4
4
6
6
.89
3.80
1.61
1.41
1.65
1.92
1.51
1.47
1.64
1.61
1.37
1.52
1.78
1.51
1.46
1.43
1.57
1.40
1.51
1.60
1.55
1.68
1.63
1.56
.51
1.25
.76
.74
.89
.50
.68
.40
.58
.80
.91
.19
.28
.52
.60
.45
.16
.57
.16
.39
1.02
.21
.90
.29
.25
.50
.77
.10
.75
.14
.78
.59
.61
.81
.49
.27
.10
.28
.54
.79
1.73
.90
.50
.81
1.57
1.00
1.75
.52
.86
1.29
1.41
.18
.29
.49
1.12
.54
.54
.50
.66
.70
.53
.76
.66
.65
.48
.43
.68
.44
.73
.39
.74
.80
..84
.45
.30
. .49
.84
1.72
.67
1.32
.89
2.01
.51
.13
.35
.36
.44
.71
.82
.78
1.38
1.63
.77
.60
2.15
.61
.37
0.84
.73
.79
.87
C1)
8.71
14.93
8.22
6.44
8.76
10.85
11.10
7.56
11.00
18.58
14.33
10.15
10.81
8.52
10.32
9.13
9.95
9.95
7.74
8.42
14.80
17.08
3.81
4.10
3.67
3.15
2.91
3.17
4.36
3.14
2.65
3.40
4.08
3.78
3.06
2.81
3.35
5.57
3.57
3.50
3.60
4.80
5.97
2.82
3.15
4.73
4.00
3.80
4.09
3.52
3.75
5.30
3.95
5.29
7.16
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58
502
506
508
51 2.
616
621
Wholesale prices manufactured goods @ .
Exports excluding military aid
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
. ..
General imports
Defense Department obligations total
Defense Department obligations procurement
625
647
740
741.
750.
751
752
Military contract awards in U S
New orders defense products industries
Average hourly earnings of production workers .
Real avg. hourly earnings of production workers
Wholesale prices, all commodities ®
Wholesale prices processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
. ..
781
782
783
784
841
842
843.
Consumer prices all items (§)
Consumer prices food .
Consumer prices commodities less foods
Consumer prices services QJ)
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of oersons unemoloved
....
....
Jan. '53-Oct. 70
Jan. '59-May 71
Jan. '63-Jan, 71
Jan. '57-Dec. 70
Jan. '59-May 71
July '53-Sep. 70
Jan. '56-Dec. 70
Jan '53-Dec 70
Jan. '53-Jul 71
Jan. '64-Jan. 72
Jan. '64-Jan. 72
Jan. '53-Sep. 70
Jan. '53-May 71
Jan. '53-May 71
Jan '53-Oct 70
Jan. '53-May 71
Jan. '56-May 71
Jan. '56-Oct. 70
Jan '53-Dec. 71
Jan '53-Dec. 71
Jan, '53-Dec. 71
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
.21
.14
6.31
6.22
12.17
12.00
6.35
4.52
6.05
4.18
12.31
23.36
12.06
23.17
19.35
18.22
.44
.23
.30
.59
19.26
18.10
.11
.16
.24
.48
1.15
.23
.39
.21
.31
.33
.35
3.65
1.02
.11
.26
.12
.07
.28
.29
2.73
.16
.75
1.25
1.71
1.13
1.23
2.01
2.37
1.46
.44
.15
.15
.32
.48
.20
.25
.17
.31
.15
.17
2.08
.89
8.27
9.64
3.54
3,71
9.82
11.53
8.12
12.39
.26
1.11
1.54
1.50
2,13
.56
1.04
.71
.24
1,91
1.70
1.31
6
6
1
2
2
2
3
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
C 11 )
C )
.90
.98
?!
?!
.26
.60
.89
.93
.88
96.00
.56
.63
.71
.24
.68
.90
.65
5.07
2.82
3.91
2.74
2.72
2.62
1.91
59.00
2.05
2.16
2.23
1.61
1.71
1.50
1.59
1.53
1.49
1.49
8.52
13.45
13.71
7.95
8.71
6.65
8.52
9.77
11.10
96.00
19.20
9.64
11.00
8.46
12.53
7.86
14.15
177.00
18.92
18.92
7.57
3.80
3.04
2.12
2.88
3.37
2.21
2.15
2.28
2.36
96.00
4.52
4.14
3.65
3.96
5.07
4.21
3.91
59.00
4.17
3.01
3.53
105
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
.76
.57
2.80
2.19
2.88
1.59
1.69
1.52
11.63
9.65
4.87
3.98
4.70
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852
853.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods
Ratio, production of bus, equip, to consumer goods
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv workers
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan.'53-June71l...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan.'60-Aug.71...
0.92
1.84
1.07
.34
.80
.83
.72
1.94
1.91
1.10
3
3
2
.30
.14
2.11
3
.74
2.11
1.70
9.93
3.61
.90
.55
.37
.51
.65
.62
1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71
2
3
2
2
4
.87
.98
.91
.94
.78
4.58
2.62
3.28
2.95
3.39
1.63
1.51
1.55
1.55
1.58
24.44
14.67
22.10
13.56
7,30
4,84
5.92
5,50
.73
2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
2
2
2
3
.75
.59
.96
.80
.69
2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
8.36
1.69
1.52
1.72
1.90
1.94
22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06
2
2
3
2
2
8.32
.55
.61 18.82
.68
3.17
.84
2.75
3.03
.94
1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77
10.40
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67
0.81
1.59
0.41
0.72
8,50
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122
123.
125
126.
OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada, industrial production
West Germany, industrial production
France, industrial production
,
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-May 71
'53-May 71
'53-May 71
'53-June 71
'53-May 71
127
128.
132
133.
135.
Italy, industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom consumer prices (§}
Canada, consumer prices (u)
West Germany, consumer prices fijj)
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-May 71 ...
'53-June 71 . . .
'53-April 70 . .
'53-June 70 . . .
'53-June 70 . . .
136.
137.
138.
142.
143.
France, consumer prices (5)
Italy, consumer prices®
Japan, consumer prices®
United Kingdom, stock prices®
Canada, stock prices ®
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan,
Jan.
'53-May 70
'53-Apr. 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70
...
...
...
...
...
3.18
2,78
2.41
2.19
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
145.
146
147.
148
West Germany, stock prices ®, . „
France stock prices®
Italy, stock prices®
Japan, stock prices®
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June
'53-June
'53-June
'53-June
...
...
...
...
3.23
3.97
3.63
3.57
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
1.75
1.71
1.09
70
70
70
70
...
...
...
...
. ..
.90
1,08
1.00
1.30
1.67
1.21
1.68
1.60
1.71
1.47
1.49
1.04
.97
1.20
,47
.27
.32
.48
.32
.36
.30
.21
.23
.51
.32
.81
.43
.34
.73
.40
.30
.41
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list1 of 26 indicators.
when MCD is "6."
.90
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
9.57
8.28
12.29
7, ,30
7<79
9,57
7.10
14,86
11,50
9,00
22.89
8.36
9.95
6.47
3.71
3.92
7.74
7.21
8.36
7,21
3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"CT is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
"U" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar.,etc.),2-monthspans(Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
106
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
Cl is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
columns, 1.47 for land 12.00forC, suggest that the seasonally
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4,13
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
CI
1
C
t/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
9.65
9.95
3.37
5.31
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan.'53-Jul.'71 .
Jan. '53-June'70.
Jan. '53-June 71.
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of
materials, supplies.
21 Avg wkly overtime hrs prod workers mfg
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods indus
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer (3)
..
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories.
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries @
3 3 Change i n mortgage debt .
.
.
Jan. '56-Aug. 71.
Jan. '53-June 71.
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 . Pet. reporting .
Jan. '53-June 71 . Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Jan.'53-Feb.71.
. Jan. '55-Dec. 70 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories . .
...
39 Delinquency rate installment loans2
40 Unemployment rate married males
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*44 Unemployment rate 1 5 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan
Jan.
85 Change in money supply
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at banks and
nonbank inst (M3)
112 Change in business loans ....
*1 13 Change in consumer installment debt
Treasury bill rate®
Treasury bond yields (u)
Corporate bond yields @
Municipal bond yields (S) ...
Mortgage yields residential @
'53-Oct. 70 .
'53-Dec. 70.
'55-Mar. 71 .
'53-Mar. 71 .
'53-Dec 70
'53-Oct. 70 .
Jan. '53-Nov. 70.
93. Free reserves(§)
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at comm.
banks (M2) .
.
.
1 14,
11 5
1 16.
117
118
Per 100
employees ..
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Hours
Bil.dol
...
. . . .
Jan. '53-June 70.
Jan. '53-May 71 .
Pet. reporting .
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Pet. reporting .
Percent
... do
...do
do
...do
.09
.51
.14
1.44
.08
.49
5.71
5.57
4.05
4.00
3.58
2.94
1.27
1.11
5.12
4.84
.08
.15
.17
.07
.16
.07
.12
.14
.06
.09
2.89
2.89
74.67
Ann. rate,
percent —
2.46
Jan.
Jan
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Percent
.do
...do
... do
...do
70 .
70
70 .
70 .
70 .
1.46
0.17
94.10
Jan '53-Sep 70
'53-Oct.
'53-Oct
'53-Oct.
'53-Oct.
'53-Oct.
.15
Ann. rate,
percent —
Mil.dol
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
...do
Feb. '64-Mar'71 .
Aug. '59-Jun. 71.
0.18
.06
3.08
2.33
4
3
.81
.82
2.02
2.32
1.52
1.51
.19
.04
.13
7.59
1.97
3.80
6
3
5
t1)
.65
.90
1.61
3.53
1.79
1.52
1.52
1.56
10.52 2.81
11.69 6.85
7.66
2.99
5.23
6
C1)
1.81
1.65
11.21
4.62
7.40
6
(M
1.41
1.39
11.05 2.63
1.60
3
.73'
2.82
1.79
8.35
4.57
2.60
3
.89
1.87
1.57
11.24
3.10
3.15
3.79
1.56
1.43
1.22
4
5
2
2
2
1
.98
.92
.84
.76
.62
.74
2.17
2.17
3.53
2.60
4.67
4.63
1.69
1.87
1.47
1,47
1.60
1.75
7.61
7.41
9.91
6.72
8.19
4.57
4,59
4.49
3.95
6.29
4.63
0.05
1.06
.54
1.83
.43
1.54
.02
.08
.10
.05
.12
.74
10.78
.48
48.15
6.06
1.55
6
2
.93
C1)
1.61
2.05
1.48
1.58
6.69
9.95
2.82
3.20
2.45
.53
4.63
5
.97
1.54
1.50
6.47
2.16
1.76
1.68
.66
2.56
3
.92
1.73
1.60
9.44
3.61
2.57
2.52
6.50
3.18
.95
.87
.50
.33
5.09
2.66
6
3
(x)
.93
1.69
1.71
1.50
1.56
.16
.08
.12
.10
.68
.11
.06
.11
.08
.73
.11
.04
.06
.04
.11
1.02
1.59
1.65
1.88
6.61
2
3
3
3
6
.66 2.63
.74 2.66
.71 2.39
.83 2.57
C 1 ) 4.63
1.82
1.90
1.69
1.85
2.37
5.25
1.29
2.28
3.48
1.70
3.17
6
2
3
4
2
4
f1)
.68
.80
.84
.84
.78
1.43
1.52
1.57
1.44
1.51
1,42
11.78 3.13
6.66
8.19
8.88
6.09
3.79
4.69
3:98
4.22
6.12
6.96
2.63
10.65
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500
844
845
846
847
848.
Merchandise trade balance
Unemployment rate males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate both sexes 1 6-19 years of age
Unemployment rate white
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Jan.'58-May71 .
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 .
Jan '53-Dec 71
Jan '53-Dec 71
Jan. '54-Dec. 71
Jan. '54-Oec. 71 .
Mil dol
Percent
... do
do .
... do
... do
104.3 101,3
.17
.13
«19
.21
.78
.75
.16
.14
.46
.49
19.3
.10
.09
.21
.08
.15
1.54
2.87
1.92
1.62
2.62
1.62
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
•when MCD is "6." 2Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations,of run are for bimonthly spans.
" 7.32 4.11
10.32 3.57
7.09 3.20
8.60 4.20
7,96 3.37
•'•Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
107
"C* is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1971
Jul.
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
Aug.
ISm
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
119.6
88.5
74.3
81.9
99.9
130.6
145.9
112.5
99.3
94.3
97,7
95.7
88.3
102,0
104 2
98 4
May
June
Mar.
Apr.
92.4
90.2
80.5
83.4
109 5
100 2
106 2
107 8
1 5. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
101.6
96.9
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
+101
+270
+156
+116
104.4
99,9
93.2
86.4
39, Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
-15
94.7
+268
-599
-399
--142
-223
+26
+468
88.2
97.7
100.2
109.3
107.6
105.8
110.0
114.9
98.1
99.5
105.5
101.4
99.7
99.2
99.6
99.3
100.3
100.1
508, Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery
101.6
94.7
100.7
97.6
94.7
100.3
100.8
616. Defense Department obligations total .
102.6
99.9
115.8
104.5
88.7
93.2
100 4
58.9
81.4
147.8
109.1
90.8
105.4
104.1
98.0
113.2
113.5
78.9
104.5
621 . Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military contract awards in U S
D34. Profits, manufacturing {FNCB}
5
-10
+10
105.0
96.5
90.6
91.0
99.1
99.7
99.9
100.3
101.4
103.3
99.5
98.4
106.6
84 1
89.1
95 1
88 0
141 8
96.2
83.6
80.9
84.2
74 8
186.3
87.0
85.1
84.9
78.2
82 9
165 9
-13
101.0
+13
NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the source agency (except series 13 and D34). Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.
factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
3
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and {c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been sea*
sonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
II Q
IQ
Dec.
841. TOTAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE* LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1948...
1949...
60 095
60 771
1950...
1951...
1952. ..
1953...
1954...
61
61
62
63
63
661
941
432
439
101
61
61
62
63
63
687
778
419
520
994
61
62
61
63
63
604
526
721
657
793
62
61
61
63
63
158
808
720
167
934
62
62
62
62
63
083
044
058
615
675
62
61
62
63
63
419
615
103
063
343
62
62
61
63
63
121
106
962
057
302
62
61
61
62
63
596
927
877
816
707
62
61
62
62
64
349
780
457
727
209
62
62
61
62
63
428
204
971
867
936
62
62
62
62
63
286
014
491
949
759
62
62
62
62
63
068
457
621
795
312
61
62
62
63
63
651
082
191
539
629
62
61
61
62
63
220
822
960
948
651
62
61
62
62
63
355
938
099
867
739
62
62
62
62
63
261
225
361
870
669
62
62
62
63
63
210
017
139
016
642
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959, .*
63
66
66
67
67
910
419
428.
095
936
63
66
66
67
67
696
124
879
201
649
63
66
66
67
68
882
175
913
223
068
64
66
66
67
68
564
264
647
647
339
64
66
66
67
68
381
722
695
895
178
64
66
67
67
68
482
702
052
674
278
65
66
67
67
68
145
752
336
824
539
65
66
66
68
68
581
673
706
037
432
65
66
67
68
68
628
714
064
002
545
65
66
67
68
68
821
546
066
045
821
66
66
67
67
68
037
657
123
658
533
66
66
67
67
68
445
700
398
740
994
63
66
66
67
67
829
239
740
173
884
64
66
66
67
68
476
563
798
739
265
65
66
67
67
68
451
713
035
954
505
66
66
67
67
68
101
634
196
814
783
65
66
66
67
68
023
553
928
637
368
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
68
70
70
71
72
962
447
189
146
356
68
70
70
71
72
949
420
409
262
683
68
70
70
71
72
399
703
414
423
713
69
70
70
71
73
579
267
278
697
274
69
70
70
71
73
626
452
551
832
395
69
70
70
71
73
934
878
514
626
032
69
70
70
71
73
745
536
302
956
007
69
70
70
71
73
841
534
981
786
118
70
70
71
72
73
151
217
153
131
290
69
70
70
72
73
884
492
917
281
308
70
70
70
72
73
439
376
871
418
286
70
70
70
72
73
395
077
854
188
465
68
70
70
71
72
770
523
337
277
584
69
70
70
71
73
713
532
448
718
234
69
70
70
71
73
912
429
812
958
138
70
70
70
72
73
239
315
881
296
353
69
70
70
71
73
629
460
615
834
090
1965...
1966...
1967., ,
1968...
1969...
73
75
76
77
79
569
186
810
720
624
73
74
76
78
80
857
954
760
413
167
73
75
76
78
80
949
075
515
476
319
74
75
76
78
80
228
338
840
340
354
74
75
76
78
80
466
447
562
737
058
74
75
77
79
80
412
647
254
125
663
74
75
77
78
80
761
736
456
981
815
74
76
77
78
81
616
046
657
7^3
079
74
76
77
78
81
502
056
780
820
293
74
76
78
78
81
838
199
108
844
492
74
76
78
79
81
797
610
088
116
395
75
76
78
79
81
093
641
409
387
631
73
75
76
78
80
792
072
695
203
037
74
75
76
78
80
369
477
885
734
358
74
75
77
78
81
626
946
631
848
062
74
76
78
79
81
909
483
202
116.
506
74
75
77
78
80
453
777
350
737
734
1970... 82 061
1971...
1972.. .
60 524
61 057
82 187
60 070
61 073
82 652
60 677
61 007
82 769
59 972
61 259
82 504
60 957
60 948
82 388
61 181
61 301
82 804
842. TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT)
(THOUSANDS)
60 806
61 590
82 769
60 815
61 633
82 945
60 646
62 185
83 266
60 702
62 005
83 418
61 169
61 908
83 485
60 230
60 967
82 300
60 535
61 071
82 554
60 934
61 508
82 839
60 839
62 033
83 390
60 622
61 288
82 715
LABOR FORCE SURVEY
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
58 196
58 208
58 968
57 190
58 456
57 397
58 740
57 845
57 976
58 142
58 296
57 490
59
60
60
59
60
429
497
954
977
116
57 705
59 899
60 277
61.831
60 291
58
59
60
61
59
761
899
108
306
962
59
59
60
61
59
458
954
094
151
926
59
60
60
60
60
643
114
611
536
248
58
59
60
61
60
921
963
255
180
109
257
796
669
470
530
63
63
63
63
65
684
910
922
549
341
60
63
64
62
63
815
561
098
950
940
61
63
64
62
64
643
765
076
745
772
62
63
64
62
64
753
950
207
979
875
63
63
63
63
64
311
894
879
498
927
62
63
64
63
64
170
801
069
036
629
66
66
66
68
69
109
081
847
267
735
65
65
66
68
69
778
900
947
213
814
65
65
66
67
68
213
738
380
149
614
66
65
66
67
69
061
605
57?
635
402
66
65
66
67
69
024
667
881
996
480
65
65
66
68
69
840
967
969
258
710
65
65
66
67
69
777
746
703
763
305
71
73
75
76
78
724
840
036
407
535
72
73
75
76
78
062
729
450
735
749
70
72
73
75
77
188
173
811
30?
344
70
72
73
75
77
897
594
928
919
574
71
73
74
76
78
369
088
640
050
125
71
73
75
76
78
827
657
138
426
578
71
72
74
75
77
088
899
373
921
902
1946. •*
1949...
58 061
58 175
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
57
59
60
61
60
635
636
460
600
024
57
59
60
61
60
751
661
462
884
663
57
60
59
62
60
728
401
908
010
186
58
59
59
61
60
583
889
909
444
185
58
60
60
61
59
649
188
195
019
908
59
59
60
61
59
052
620
219
456
792
59
60
59
61
59
001
156
971
397
643
59
59
59
61
59
797
994
790
151
853
59
59
60
60
60
575
713
521
906
282
59
60
60
60
60
803
010
132
893
270
59
59
60
60
60
697
836
748
738
357
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
60
63
63
63
63
753
753
632
220
868
60
63
64
62
63
727
518
257
898
684
60
63
64
62
64
964
411
404
731
267
61
63
64
62
64
515
614
047
631
768
61
63
63
62
64
634
861
985
874
699
61
63
64
62
64
781
820
196
730
849
62
63
64
62
65
513
800
540
745
Oil
62
63
63
63
64
797
972
959
012
844
62
64
64
63
64
950
079
121
181
770
62
63
64
63
64
991
975
046
475
911
63
63
63
63
64
1960...
1961...
1962. •«
1963...
1964...
65
65
66
67
68
347
776
108
072
327
65
65
66
67
68
620
588
538
024
751
64
65
66
67
68
673
850
493
351
763
65
65
66
67
69
959
374
372
642
356
66
65
66
67
69
057
449
688
615
631
66
65
66
67
69
168
993
670
649
218
65
65
66
67
69
909
608
483
905
399
65
65
66
67
69
895
852
968
908
463
66
65
67
68
69
267
541
192
174
578
65
65
67
68
69
632
919
114
294
582
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
69
72
73
74
76
997
198
904
882
936
70
72
73
75
77
127
134
881
433
487
70
72
73
75
77
439
188
647
606
60S
70
72
73
75
77
633
510
945
620
561
71
72
73
75
77
034
497
612
977
311
71
72
74
76
77
025
775
228
160
851
71
72
74
76
77
460
860
481
090
948
71
73
74
75
78
362
146
?H
980
224
71
73
74
76
78
286
258
729
081
204
71
73
74
76
78
695
401
927
137
449
1970... 78 853
1971, ,.
1972. .*
78 752
57 671
58 043
79 018
58 291
57 747
78 908
57 854
57 552
78 514
58 743
57 172
78 412
78 631
78 514
58 513
57 584
78 448
58 387
57 269
78 678
58 417
58 009
78 548
78 427
78 874
78 611
843. NUMBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED* LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)
58 646
57 390
78 531
58 515
57 708
78 551
58 344
57 562
78 627
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2 328
2 849
2 399
3 030
2 386
3 260
2 118
3 707
2 214
3 776
2 213
4 111
2 350
4 193
2 302
4 049
2 259
4 916
2 285
3 996
2 429
4 063
2 254
2 825
2 239
3 581
2 288
4 118
2 324
4 325
2 278
3 636
1950.'..
4 026
1951. . .2 305
1952.. . 1 972
1953...
1 839
1954...
3 077
3
2
1
1
3
3
2
1
1
3
876
125
813
647
607
3
1
1
1
3
575
919
811
723
749
3
1
1
1
3
434
856
863
596
767
3 367
3
1
1
1
3
120
950
991
660
659
2 799
1 933
2 087
1 665
3 854
2 774
2 625
2 589
2 639
1 936
1 821
3 927
1 839
1 974
3 666
1 743
2 211
3 402
1 667
2 818
3 196
3
2
1
1
3
946
182
947
707
338
3
1
1
1
3
459
923
853
642
689
2
1
2
1
3
898
983
005
715
813
2
2
1
2
3
618
111
750
334
421
3 289
1 884
1 607
3 551
1 884
1 836
3 533
1955,. ,
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
3
2
2
3
4
157
666
796
875
068
2 969
2 606
2 622
4 303
3 965
2 918
2 764
2 509
4 492
3 801
3
2
2
5
3
049
650
600
016
571
2
2
2
5
3
747
861
710
021
479
2 701
2 882
2 856
4 944
3 429
2
2
2
5
3
632
952
796
079
528
2
2
2
5
3
784
701
747
025
588
2 678
2 635
2 943
4 821
3 775
2
2
3
4
3
830
571
020
570
910
2
2
3
4
4
780
861
454
188
003
2
2
3
4
3
761
790
476
191
653
3
2
2
4
3
015
679
642
223
945
2 832
2 798
2 722
4 994
3 493
2
2
2
4
3
698
763
829
975
630
2 790
2 741
3 317
4 316
3 855
2 853
2 752
2 859
4 601
3 739
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
3
4
4
4
4
615
671
081
074
029
3
4
3
4
3
329
832
871
238
932
3 726
4 853
3 921
4 072
3 950
3 620
4 893
3 906
4 055
3 918
3 569
5 003
3 863
4 217
3 764
3
4
3
3
3
766
885
844
977
814
3 836
4 928
3 819
4 051
3 608
3
4
4
3
3
946
682
013
878
655
3
4
3
3
3
884
676
961
957
712
4
4
3
3
3
252
573
803
987
726
4
4
4
4
3
330
295
024
151
551
4
4
3
3
3
617
177
907
975
651
3
4
3
4
3
557
785
958
128
970
3
4
3
4
3
652
92?
871
083
832
3
4
3
3
3
889
762
931
962
658
4 400
4 348
3 911
4 038
3 643
3
4
3
4
3
852
714
912
071
785
1965..*
1966...
3
2
2
2
2
572
988
906
838
688
3
2
2
2
2
730
820
879
980
680
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
387
872
026
965
812
3 301
2 876
2 975
2 891
2 867
3
2
2
2
2
254
9QO
946
763
855
3
2
3
2
3
216
798
051
739
089
3
2
3
2
3
143
798
181
707
043
3
2
3
2
2
073
770
052
709
860
3
2
2
2
2
031
912
959
652
882
3
2
2
2
2
604
898
884
896
693
3
2
2
2
2
471
883
957
815
784
3
2
2
2
2
257
858
991
798
937
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
2
365
878
977
816
832
3 976
4 173
4 255
1948...
1949...
1967. *•
1968...
1969. .*
1970...
1971...
1972...
2 034
2 596
3 208
936
117
957
636
331
3 435
510
887
868
870
711
3 634
595
328
895
720
793
3 861
432
950
950
760
747
3 990
4 497
4 588
4 870
5 058
3 426
3 942
4 308
082
827
064
689
928
4 839
4 088
(APRIL 1972)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series*
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series whoch have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
644. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. MALES 20 YEARS AND OVERi LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1948...
1949...
3.0
3*8'
3,1
4.2
3.3
4.6
3.4
4*7
3.2
5.5
3.0
5*7
2.9
6.2
3.2
6.2
3,3
6.0
3.3
7.9
3.3
6*0
3.5
5.9
3.1
4.2
3.2
5.3
3.1
6.1
3.4
6,6
3.2
5.4
1950., .
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
5.7
3.0
2.5
2.6
4.0
5.6
2.7
2.4
2.2
4. 4
5.7
2.5
2.3
2.0
4.8
5.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
5.1
4.9
2*2
2.2
2.3
5.2
4*6
2*5
2.5
2.1
5*1
4.4
2.4
2.7
2.2
5.1
3.9
2,5
2,9
2.2
5,4
3.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
5.5
3.5
2.8
2.3
2.5
5.4
3*4
2.7
2.2
3.1
4.8
3.5
2.4
2.1
3.8
4.5
5.7
2.7
2.4
2.3
4.3
5*0
2.3
2.3
2.3
5.1
4*0
2*5
2*7
2.3
5*3
3,5
2.6
2.2
3.1
4.9
4.7
2*5
2.4
2.5
4*9
1955., ,
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
4.3
4.1
4.1
4*4
3.6
3*5
3.4
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.4
3.4
4.2
3.8
3*4
3,4
3.8
5.2
5.3
5.7
5.3
6.2
4.8
6.7
4.2
6*9
4*2
6*9
4.2
7.0
6.9
6.4
6.1
5.7
5.6
3.2
5.7
5.1
3.4
6.3
4.2
3.5
6.8
4*5
4*4
5.8
4.8
3.6
6.2
4.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
4.4
5,8
4.1
5.9
4.6
5.9
4*4
6.1
4.3
6.3
4.5
5*8
4.7
6.0
4.9
5.8
4.9
5.6
5*2
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.7
5.0
4.4
5,9
4.4
6.1
4,7
4.9
4,,7
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
4*1
4*2
4*4
4.3
4.8
4.4
3.8
4*8
5*8
4*6
4*2
3.7
5.4
5.2
4.5
4.3
3.7
4.7
5.7
4,6
4,5
3.9
2.7
2.3
2*3
2.0
2.6
2.2
2.4
1.9
2«6
2*i4
2«3
1.9
2.5
2.4
2*1
2*0
2*4
2.4
2.1
2*0
2.5
2*4
2*3
2*0
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.1
2*4
2.2
2.1
2.4
2*8
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.0
2*2
2.5
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.6
2.3
2.3
1.9
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
2*5
2.3
2*1
2.2
2.7
2.4
2*3
2.0
2.2
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
2*5
2.8
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968* ..
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972., ,
4. -5
845.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE* FEMALES 20 YEARS AND OVER* LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946...
1949...
2.8
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.8
5.4
5.5
6.K
6.2
5.9
5.9
5.6
1950...
1951.,,
1952...
1953...
1954...
6.3
4.2
3.4
2.6
5.2
6.1
4.1
3.5
2*5
5.3
5.9
4.4
3.1
2.9
5.9
5.1
4.0
3.3
2.6
5.9
5.2
4.0
3.4
2.4
5.6
5*6
3»9
3*1
2.5
5.8
5.0
3.6
3.2
2.S
5.0
4,2
3.4
3,3
2.7
5.7
4.5
4.1
2.9
3.1
5.9
4t3
4.2
3.3
3.1
5.1
4.7
4*1
3.0
3*4
5.3
1955...
1956...
1957. **
1958...
1959...
4.9
4.5
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.4
4*4
4.6
5.7
5.6
S.S
5.2
5*0
4.9
5.0
4.8
4*9
I960..,
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
4*8
5*9
5.3
5.4
5.6
4.5
6,5
5.2
5,5
5.6
S.O
6,5
5.3
5.2
5,6
4.8
6.7
5.2
5.3
5,4
4.7
6,7
5.2
5.5
5.2
5.0
6*8
5*2
5.3
5.1
s. a
5,1
6,0
5.6
5,4
4,9
6.7
5.3
5.*
5.0
3.8
5.9
3.5
4.0
3*6
5,2
3.8
6*1
3.6
5.8
3.6
5.3
4.4
3.6
6.1
4.2
5.3
4.0
4*6
3.7
4.5
4,7
2.7
5.5
2.5
5.8
2*8
5.8
4.5
4.0
3.0
3.7
5.0
5.1
4.0
3,2
2.9
5.5
442
4,3
4.6
4*2
4,3
4*3
4*5
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.2
5.3
5*3
4.9
5.6
5.1
5.6
5.0
4*9
5*1
5,2
4.8
6.2
5.6
5.5
4.9
5.5
6,3
5.3
5.4
4.9
5.8
5.7
544
5*5
5*0
6.1
5.8
5.3
5,4
4.6
4.8
4.8
5-0
5.8
S.i
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.4
5.2
5*5
5.4
4*9
5.3
5.4
4.9
5.4
5.4
5.2
1965...
4.6
5.1
<U7
4.6
4*5
4.7
4.3
4.1
4.3
4.0
4.8
4.4
4.1
4.0
4*0
4.2
3,6
4*1
4*1
4.2
4.2
4.4
3.8
3.9
4.1
1967...
1966...
1969...
4.6
4.6
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.6
3.3
4.1
4*3
3*7
4*2
4.1
3*6
4.3
4.5
3.8
4.2
1970...
1971...
1972...
3.7
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.9
4.6
4.9
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.6
5.7
4.1
4.6
4*9
5*5
4.8
646. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE* BOTH SEXES 16-19 YEARS OF AGEt LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946...
1949...
8.S
10.0
10.0
10.6
10.5
11.9
9.5
13.2
7.0
13.4
9.3
13.8
9*7
14.3
9.6
15.0
8.8
14.6
8.5
15.8
9.1
14.0
8.5
15.4
9.7
10.8
1950. ».
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
15.2
8*5
9.3
6.9
12.1
15,2
8.1
8.3
6.7
13.5
14.3
6.3
8.2
6.7
13.0
12.0
7,9
7.6
7.1
13.6
13.3
6.7
8*9
6.4
13.4
12*2
8.3
8.4
6.9
10.5
11.2
8*7
8*8
7«3
12«9
10.7
6.2
8,5
7.4
14.0
10.9
8.3
6.9
7.3
14.0
10.3
7.7
8.4
9.7
12.2
9.5
9.5
8.2
6*6
11*4
11.1
7.6
7.6
11. 3
12.6
14.9
1955..,
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
11.7
10.6
11.6
14*4
14.0
11,3
11.4
10.5
14.6
12.9
11.0
11.5
11.2
14.7
13.6
10.7
10.9
11*1
17,2
15.0
10.9
11.9
11.4
16.3
14.3
10*8
12*2
11*7
15*4
13*9
10*4
11.2
11*8
17«,9
14*5
11.5
10.1
11.5
16.0
16.1
11.3
9.8
11.0
17,9
14*9
11.0
10.1
10.9
16.0
15.8
11*7
12*6
13.4
15.9
15.1
1960. ,.
1961.* .
1962., .
1963...
1964...
17.1
16.2
15.6
16.7
17.4
16.0
17.7
15.8
1,7.1
Ii5.1
17.1
,16.3
16.4
15*1
16.6
17.0
15*8
14.2
18.7
16.4
16.6
13.6
17*2
16*8
17*3
13.9
16.1
14.7
17.1
14.1
16.1
16.7
16.0
14.5
17.4
15.7
16.9
14.3
17.1
15.8
1965...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
1969...
16*8
13.0
11.3
11.6
11.8
16.7
12.4
13.0
13.0
12.0
15.8
13.1
11. ?•
12.8
J12.4
16.2
13.0
12*1
12.0
12.4
14.8
13.6
12.8
12.6
12*4
15.3
13*0
12.8
13*9
12*0
14.5
12.9
12.8
13.5
12.5
13,9
12,4
13.5
12.1
12.3
14*7
12.8
13.1
12.1
12.7
1970...
1971*. .
1972...
13.6
13*5
13.6
15.2
14.3
15.1
14*4
15.8
16*5
NOTE:
13.5
14.6
15.1
13,4
8.6
6.3
12.9
12.5
7.6
8.3
6.8
12.5
10.9
8.4
8.7
7.3
13*6
10,3
6.3
8,1
10.0
12.1
12.2
8.2
8,5
7.6
12.6
11.0
9.7
13.1
14.9
15.3
11.3
11.2
11.1
14.6
13.5
10. 8
11.7
11.4
16.3
14.4
11. 1
10.4
11.4
17.3
15.2
11.2
10.8
12.5
15.6
15.4
11«0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14,6
14.7
16*0
16*3
17.7
15.6
16.4
15.3
14.4
16.3
17.1
14.4
17.2
15.8
16.9
16.3
14.2
16.3
14.3
17.6
16.7
14*6
17*5
14.2
17*2
15*7
15.7
16.1
15,0
17.0
16.2
14.7
16.8
14.7
17,2
16.2
14.5
12.6
14.0
12.0
12.7
1310
11.8
13.9
12.2
11*6
13.3
12.1
12.9
12,7
11.9
16.4
12.6
12.0
12.5
12.1
15.4
13.2
12.6
12.8
12.3
14*4
12.7
13*1
12.6
12*5
13.6
12.2
13*6
12.3
12.1
14.8
12.8
12,9
12.7
12,2
16*7
17 f 2
1?',6
13.6
14.9
15.6
17.2
15.2
s.;3
Series on this page arc introduced in this issu<
(APRIL 1972)
no
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which hove been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which hove not been shown here for o long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures ore shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
847.
May
UNEMPLOYMENT
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1Q
RATE? WHITEt LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT) 1
II Q
III Q
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
.* .
*.*
]'•
:::
1954...
4.5
4.9
5.0
5.5
5.3
5*0
5.3
5,6
5.9
5.1
4.7
4*4
4.8
5.3
5^6
4!?
5.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
4.5
3.5
3.8
5.2
4*1
4.0
4.3
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3*6
5.7
3,4
5*9
3.5
6.7
3.6
6.7
3*7
6.6
3.7
6.8
3,7
6,7
3.9
6.4
4.0
6.0
3.6
3.8
4.6
5.5
3.7
3.8
4.7
5.5
4.2
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.6
3*6
3*8
3.7
3.7
4.4
3.9
3*6
3.8
4.5
4.7
5.0
4.8
1960...
1961...
4.6
4.3
4.8
4.6
4.6
4*8
4.9
5,1
5.1
5.5
5.5
5.9
4.6
4*8
5.1
4.3
5.0
4.8
4.4
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.6
5*0
5.0
4.3
4.8
5.0
4.5
4.9
5.1
4.9
4.7
6.2
4.8
5*1
4.7
5*0
6.0
4.9
4*9
4*4
5.6
5.5
4.9
4*9
4.5
5.0
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.6
3.9
3.3
3.4
3.3
4.0
3.3
3,4
3.2
3.8
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.0
3.7
3,2
3.5
3.0
3.6
3,3
4.4
3.4
4.3
3.4
3.9
3.3
3,7
3.3
4.1
3.4
3.0
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3,0
3.3
3.2
3.1
5.1
5.4
5.6
3.8
4*4
4*8
5.4
4.5
1963...
1964...
5.0
5.0
5.3
4.9
5,0
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.2
4.5
4*8
4*9
4.7
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
4.3
3.5
3.4
3.3
4.5
3.4
3.3
3.3
4.3
3.4
3.3
3.2
4*4
3.3
3*4
3.1
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.1
4*2
3.4
3.5
3*4
1970...
1971...
1972...
848.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE* NEGRO AND OTHER RACES . LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT) 1
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
...
..*
1953...
1954...
8.0
9.2
10.7
9.4
10.2
9.8
10.7
9.8
10.5
10.1
10*3
10*2
9.3
9.8
10*3
10.2
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
9.1
8.3
8.0
10.5
11.5
10.1
7.4
7.2
12.6
11.7
8.9
7.9
7.0
12.9
11.4
9.2
8.1
7.2
13.8
9.8
8.4
8.5
7.5
13.5
10.2
7.3
9*2
8*2
13.0
9.8
7.9
9.1
7.9
13.3
10.5
9.1
8.6
7.5
12,8
10,6
8.5
8.6
8.5
12.7
10.3
8.8
7.4
8.2
12.0
11.3
8.4
8,1
9*4
11.3
10.3
8.2
8.1
9.1
12.5
10.8
9.4
7.9
7.4
12.0
11.5
8.3
8.6
7.6
13.4
9.9
8.5
8.8
8*0
12*9
10.5
8.5
7.9 .
8.9
11*9
10.8
8.7
8.3
7,9
12.6
10.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
10.0
12.0
11.5
11*0
9.3
12.8
11*1
11.6
10*8
12.4
11.3
11.0
10,1
12.8
12.2
10.3
9.7
13.2
10.9
11.4
10*1
12.7
11.0
10.7
10.1
12.4
10.6
10.2
9.8
12.5
11,1
10.1
9.1
12.7
10*3
10.6
10.5
12.5
9,8
11.0
11.4
11.6
10.7
11*2
12*1
11.7
11.2
10.1
10.0
12*4
11.3
11.2
10.0
12.9
11.4
10.8
9.7
12.5
10.7
10*3
11.3
11.9
10.6
10*8
10.2
12.4
10.9
10.6
9,6
1965...
1966...
1967...
9.0
7.2
7.1
9.3
6.9
7.3
8.5
7,4
7.6
8.4
7.2
7,1
7.7
7.4
7.8
8*0
7.3
7.3
8.5
7.3
7.1
7.5
8.1
6.9
7.8
7*0
7.6
7.5
7.1
8.3
7.6
7.0
7.3
7.1
7.8
7.2
8.9
7.2
7.3
1969...
6.4
6.0
6*2
6.2
8.0
7.3
7.4
6.6
6.6
7*9
7.5
7.2
6*5
6*5
7.4
7.3
7.6
6.6
6.2
8.1
7.3
7.4
6.7
6.4
1970...
1971...
1972...
6.5
7.1
7.2
8.2
8.0
8*5
8.2
8.5
8.7
9.0
9.0
9.6
6.9
8.2
8.5
9.2
8.2
98.8
97,4
..;
17.
INDEX OF PRICE PER UNIT OF LABOR COST
(1967=100) 2
9,9
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1948...
1949...
99.5
96.1
98.5
94.6
98.1
95.4
98.7
94.3
1950...
1951...
1952. ..
1953...
1954...
95.3
107.5
97.1
93.9
91.5
95.7
106.9
96.9
93.8
91.5
96.4
105.9
96.3
93.5
91.4
97.3
103.7
95.7
93.0
91.4
97.4
98.6
95.2
98.4
98.4
94.7
99.3
96.6
95*5
98.8
96.8
95.0
96.9
98.7
95.4
93.6
94.4
95.1
94*6
105.0
98.2
95,8
95.0
92.6
105.5
98*4
95.1
94.8
93.0
103.1
98.7
94.6
93.6
92.4
102.6
97.7
95.2
92.3
91.8
105.1
97.1
93.7
91.2
92.9
95.8
106*8
96.8
93.7
91.5
98.2
102.7
94.7
93.4
91.9
104.3
98.8
95*5
94.8
92.8
103,6
97.8
94.5
92.4
92.4
100,5
101.5
95.4
93.6
92.1
96.3
92.6
96.6
96.2
95,1
96.6
97.3
95.6
95*4
95.7
93.9
95*6
95*7
94.0
95.9
93.8
96.6
95.6
93.6
95.6
96.4
94.7
96.4
96.8
92.5
96.7
96.1
96.5
96.1
93,1
97.9
96*4
94.6
96.6
94.6
95.2
96.5
95.6
94.3
95.7
94.7
95*9
95,8
96.0
94*0
96.1
93.9
95.1
95.0
96.8
96.5
93*5
95.2
95*2
96.4
97.8
94.1
96.2
95.0
95.9
97.7
96.8
93.0
95.4
95.4
97.0
94.4
93.9
94.2
96.8
97.1
94.1
95.2
94.9
96.4
96.9
93.8
95.5
95.1
96.4
97.3
94.8
94.4
94,9
96.2
97,1
96.1
99.6
93.0
95*8
100.3
93.4
96.6
99.5
93.3
97,6
98.9
94.8
97.7
102.9
94.4
94.0
92*1
99.6
101*4
94*1
93*2
92*1
102,4
99.8
95.6
94.7
92.7
96.0
96.9
95.9
96.3
95*7
96*4
96.5
97.2
1955. *.
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
94.5
96.4
96.3
93.3
96.1
94.4
9615
97.1
92.2
97.0
95.3
96.2
96.9
92.1
97.0
95.9
96.8
96.1
98.1
98,0
97.7
96.4
94.6
96.7
96.0
96.7
94.7
94.5
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
97.8
93.1
95.3
95.1
97.7
96.8
92.8
95.6
95,6
96.9
95.9
93.2
95.4
95.6
96.5
95.1
93.9
94.5
96.7
97.2
94.2
93.7
94.3
96.8
97.1
94.0
94.0
93.9
96.9
97.0
94.0
94.7
94.6
96*1
97.4
94.2
95.1
94.8
96.6
96.8
94.0
95.8
95.2
96.5
96.5
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
98.8
102.0
100.3
100.0
98.8
98*5
101.5
100.0
100.0
100.2
99.0
102.2
99.2
99.5
99.8
99*4
101.5
100*2
100.1
99.1
99.6
102.3
99.7
99.4
98.9
100.3
102.0
99.8
99*6
98.9
100*8
102.7
99.6
99.6
99.0
100.7
101.9
99,8
99.1
99.1
100.7
102.5
99.7
98.2
99.2
100.4
102.0
100.0
98.0
99.0
100*4
100*7
99.8
98.3
98.7
101.5
101.0
100.2
97.4
98,4
98.8
101.9
99.8
99.8
99.6
99.8
101.9
99.9
99.7
99.0
100.7
102.4
99.7
99.0
99.1
100.8
101.2
100,0
97.9
98.7
100.0
101.9
99,9
99.1
99.1
1970...
1971...
1972...
96.5
97.2
97*2
97.0
97.6
97.4
97.4
97.1
96*8
96.9
96.3
96,4
97.0
97.3
97.1
96.5
97,0
(APRIL 1972)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
OF quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the baste data tables of thereport
and may be used to update the tables below.
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 tf available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which hove been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series, Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
IQ
II Q
Year
Annual
IIIQ
IQ
IV Q
745. A V E R A G E HOURLY COMPENSATION i ALL EMPLOYEES IN
P R I V A T E NONFARM ECONOMY 1 ( INDEX1 1967=100)
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
745-C. QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGES IN AVG, HOURLY COMP.i ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY 3 (ANN. RATEf PERCENT)
AVERAGE
1945.....
1946
1947
1946
1919
** *
...
...
...
...
37.0
40.5
42.9
37.9
41.2
42.9
38.6
42.2
43.0
39.5
42«7
43.0
38.2
41.7
43.0
1945. *•••
19116
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
43.9
47.9
51.3
54.0
56.2
44*6
49.0
51.6
S4.7
S6.6
45.6
49.8
52.0
55.4
57.0
46-9
50.6
53.4
55.7
57.5
45.3
49.3
52.1
55.0
56.8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
57.8
60.7
64.9
67.5
70.6
58.6
61.9
65.6
68.0
71.2
59.2
62.9
66.4
68:9
71.8
59.8
64*0
67.2
69.6
72.4
1960
1961.....
1962
1963
1964
73.7
75.4
78.9
81.5
85*0
74.3
76.6
79.5
01.9
05.7
74.7
77.3
80.0
82.8
87.2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
88.0
92.5
97.8
104.9
112.0
39.0
94*1
99.3
106.4
1L3.9
1970
1971
1972.....
119.7
121.5
...
...
...
**(
Annual
AVERAGE
***
...
9.7
4*8
...
9.0
^.1
2.1
9*9
7.3
0.1
7.7
10.0
0.9
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
8.9
8.8
5.5
4*9
3.7
6.8
9.3
2*9
5.1
2.5
8.7
6.7
3.4
4.9
3.0
12*3
2.7
3.4
5,4
8.9
5.6
5.6
3.4
58.9
62.4
66.0
68.5
71.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
2*2
6.5
5.9
1.8
5.7
5.4
8.0
4.4
2.8
3.5
4.8
6.7
5,2
5.5
3.2
3*8
6*6
5*0
4.3
3*8
3.6
6.0
5.0
3.8
4.3
75.0
78.0
80.8
83.9
87.7
74.4
76.8
79.8
82.6
86*4
1960
1961..***
1962
1963
1964
7.3
2*1
4.7
3.4
5.4
3.3
6.6
2.9
2*0
3.3
1,9
3,6
2.9
4*4
6.8
1.7
3*9
4.1
5.4
2.8
4.1
3.2
3.9
3.5
4.7
90.0
95.4
100.8
108.3
115.7
91.1
96*9
102*2
110.6
117.7
89.5
94.7
100.0
107.5
114.9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1.2
6.0
3*8
5.4
4.4
7.5
6.4
5.9
6.7
4.6
5.4
6.2
7.3
6.8
5.3
6.3
5.6
8.7
6.9
3.6
5.8
5.6
7.9
6.8
12412
126*0
122.8
1970
1971
1972
7.2
6*3
8.9
5.9
6.9
745-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN AVG. HOURLY COMP.» ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY 3 (ANN. RATE, PERCENT)
AVERAGE
:
10.9
11.0
* ..
...
.< .
9.4
2.0
.* •
...
...
8.2
0*6
...
.*.
9.5
6.0
2.3
...
...
8.9
4.2
3.9
..,
...
,•.
7.0
2*2
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.9
.3
.5
.4
.0
9.2
7.8
5.5
4*4
3.1
9.1
7.0
5.4
4.1
2.8
9.8
5.4
6,0
3.4
3.5
8*5
7*4
5.4
4*6
3.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
67*9
69*8
68*4
1955
1956.....
1957
1958
1959
.9
.2
5.5
3.8
4*1
4.0
6.9
5.1
3.6
4.0
5.1
6*8
4.1
4.6
4.4
5,8
5.9
3.7
4,7
4.4
4.7
6*4
4*6
4*2
4*2
1955
1956.*...
1957
1958
1959
72.1
75.6
78.1
78.5
81.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
4.0
3.5
3.6
3.5
5.2
3.5
4.0
3.7
3.8
4.6
2.2
4.7
3.3
4.3
3.5
3.1
3.8
3,1
4.6
3.8
3*2
4*0
3.4
4*0
4.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1966
1969
3.2
6.0
5.7
7.4
6.9
3.8
6.3
5.5
8.2
6.4
5.1
5.7
7.3
6.8
6.9
5.8
5,5
7.1
7.0
6,8
4*5
5*9
6*4
7»4
6*8
1970
1971. ....
1972
7.3
7.0
7.4
7.5
7.3
746-C. QTRLY PERCENT CHANGES IN REAL AVG. HOURLY COMP. » ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY 2 (ANN. RATEt PERCENT)
AVERAGE
...
...
...
4.0
8.1
...
...
3.7
0.7
0.6
...
**.
-3.4
0.5
1.9
...
...
-1.8
9.3
0.9
1952
1953
1954
12.1
-5.5
5.5
7.2
4.2
3.7
5.0
1.1
3.3
2.9
-0.7
4.8
-0*6
1*9
2.6
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
2.6
7.4
3.3
-2*2
6.1
5.9
4.8
0*1
-0.1
1.8
1960
1961
7.3
1.7
3.9
2.6
4.2
194S
1949
1950
1951.....
1962.....
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
196S
1969. * . . .
1970
1971
1972
6.4
10*7
746. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION ,ALL EMPLOYEES IN
P R I V A T E NONFARM ECONOMY 1 t INDEXi 1967-100)
1945
1946
1947
194S
1949
1945
1946
1947
-0*5
AVERAGE
.* .
...
57.1
57.6
60.4
* ..
***
56.8
58.9
60.5
...
..*
57.2
57.8
60.2
70.3
62.7
63.9
65.0
68.7
70.8
63,3
64.1
66.7
69,1
71,7
62,9
63.4
65,5
68.6
70.6
73.2
76.5
78.1
78.5
81.8
73.7
76.8
78.3
79.4
82.0
74. J
77.5
79,0
80,3
82*3
73.4
76.6
78.4
79*2
81.9
83.8
84.4
87.6
89.4
91.8
83.9
85.7
87.9
89.7
92.4
84.1
86.1
88.1
89.9
93.6
84.0
86,7
88.8
90.9
93.9
B3.9
85.7
38.1
90.0
93,0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
94.0
96.4
99.0
102.5
104.4
94.3
97.1
99.9
102.8
104.3
95.0
97.6
100.4
103.3
104.6
95. 7
98,3
100.9
104,3
104,9
94,7
97*4
100*0
103.2
104*6
1970
1971
1972.....
105.1
105.0
106.1
106.2
105*6
.. *
.•.
57.0
57,4
60.0
62.3
62*4
64.9
...
** *
57.6
57.5
60.1
62.8
63.2
65.1
746-C. 4-QTR PERCENT CHANGES IN REAL AVG. HOURLY COMP.i ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY-MANN* RATE* PERCENT'
AVERAGE
...
...
...
0.8
4.9
...
.*.
...
...
...
3.6
2.8
0.6
4.6
3.8
-0. 1
K2
4.1
1945
1946
1947
1946
1949
4.5
4.6
**.
3*4
4.0
3.7
0*9
10.7
2*2
5.2
4,4
0.8
3.3
4.8
3.0
1950..*..
1951**...
1952
1953
1954
3.9
1*9
1.7
5,7
3,0
4.6
1*2
4.1
3.6
3.7
0.2
4.0
4*5
2.9
3.3
0.5
3.1
5.1
2.8
4.1
2*3
2*6
3*8
3*8
3*5
3.0
114
1.0
4.7
0.8
3.3
3.5
3.3
4.3
1.7
3.9
4.4
2.2
1.0
3.5
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
4.2
4.2
2.0
1*4
3.2
3.7
4.3
1.9
1.6
2.6
4.9
3,3
0.5
3.7
2.9
4.6
2.1
0.5
4.2
2,5
4*4
3.5
1.2
2.7
2.8
0.5
6.6
1.4
1.3
2.5
1.1
1.6
1.0
1.3
5.3
-0.6
3.1
3.3
4.3
1.3
2.5
2.1
2.7
2.2
^.3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2.6
2*3
2*3
2.1
4.1
2.0
3.2
2.4
2.4
3.3
0.7
3.8
2*1
2.8
2.4
2.2
2.5
2.0
3.1
2.1
1*9
3*0
2*2
2*6
3.0
0.4
3.0
3.1
6*6
0.4
1.4
3.0
3.5
1.1
-0.2
3.1
1.8
1.9
2.1
0.9
3*0
3*0
2.0
3.9
1*1
1.9
2.8
2.7
3.2
1 .4
1965
1966
1967
1966
1969
1*5
2.0
2.7
2.6
2.9
1.2
3.4
0.6
2,6
2.7
3,5
1*9
0.7
3,0
2.7
2*9
1.5
0.7
2.3
2.7
3.0
2*4
0.8
0.8
-0.2
4.2
0*4
0.9
1970
1971* . . • .
1972
1.5
1.3
2.4
3.0
2.0
jThia series contains no revisions but ia reprinted for the convenience of the user.
rates of change are not simple averages of the quarterly rates of change.
"4-quarter percentage changes are centered within the spans. Annual figures are averages of these centered changes.
3Annual
112
2,8
2,9
...
( A P R I L 1972)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title* Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
id
II Q
III Q
IV Q
770. OUTPUT PER M A N H O U R i TOTAL PRIVATE E C O N O M Y 1
{ INDEX l 1967=100)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
»..
».*
50.9
...
...
52.5
54.3
51.1
53.7
54.5
...
...
51,0
53.6
56.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
58.8
60.1
61.8
64.5
65.5
59.2
61.0
62*4
65.5
66.3
1955
1956.,...
1957.....
1958
1959
69.6
69.6
71.6
72.6
76.5
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Annual
AVERAGE
*.*
...
Year
52.1
54.4
56.2
1945
1946**..*
1947
1948
1949
60.3
62.6
63.1
65.6
67.5
60.5
62.5
63.6
65.9
68*4
59.7
61.5
62.7
65.3
66.9
70.1
69.6
71.9
73.5
76.8
70.0
69.7
72.2
75.0
76.6
69.8
71.0
72.6
76.0
77.7
78.9
78.0
82.8
86.6
90.6
78.1
80.9
83.9
86.9
90.9
77.6
81.8
85.2
88.3
91.6
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
92.8
97.4
98.5
101.8
103.6
93.3
97.8
100.2
102.7
103.1
1970
1971
1972
103.0
103.7
IV Q
...
...
...
.. *
Annual
AVERAGE
3.4
-1.0
...
1*6
9.3
1.6
...
...
8.9
6.0
0.6
4^5
3.2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
20.0
-3.1
-4*1
5.8
-2.0
2.2
6.1
3.7
6.8
4.8
8.2
10.9
4.2
0.2
7.3
1.3
-0.5
3.3
1*8
5.5
8.1
3.0
1.9
4.2
2.4
69.9
70.0
72.0
74.3
76.9
1955
1956
1957*..*.
1956
1959
7.1
-1.4
3.3
-0.4
3.1
3.5
0.5
1.8
5.4
1.3 •
-0.8
0.6
1.5
8.2
-0.8
-1,2
7.4
2*6
5.3
5.7
4.4
0.2
2.9
3-1
3.6
78.0
82.7
86.7
89.1
91*4
78.2
80.9
84.7
87.7
91.1
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
6.5
0.1
0.7
-0.4
6.8
-4.2
15.6
5.1
1.7
1.2
-2.5
4.7
6.6
6,2
3.4
2*1
4.3
6*9
4.0
-0.9
1.6
3.5
4.7
*.6
3.9
94.9
97.8
100.6
103.3
103.4
96*0
98.9
100.7
103.7
103.4
94*2
98.0
100.0
102.9
103*4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
6.4
6.0
-1.3
4.6
-0.4
1.9
1.7
7,0
3.7
-1.8
7.0
0.0
1.4
2.2
0.9
4*9
4*3
0.3
1.5
0*1
3.4
4.0
2.1
2.9
0.5
105.3
105.3
104.3
1970*.*..
1971
1972
-1.6
3.1
6.1
0.2
0.9
. . .
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
5.1
4.7
...
...
...
4.4
3.4
...
...
3.2
3.3
8.5
*..
***
5.1
1*4
8.6
...
...
...
3*6
6*3
1950
1951
1952
1953.....
1954
7.5
3.7
0.8
4.0
2.9
7.7
3.2
1.7
3.6
3.8
2.1
3.0
4.2
1.7
6.2
3,0
2.4
5.0
1.2
5.8
5«1
3.1
2*9
2*6
4.7
d955
1956
1957
1958
1959
3.8
-0.4
3.5
3.9
2.2
2.1
1.7
2.3
4*6
2.3
0.0
2*9
1.4
5.5
3.1
-0.7
3.2
2.3
4.5
1.7
1.3
1*8
2*4
4*6
2*3
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1.2
5.5
4.1
3.6
3.8
0.4
6.0
4.8
2.8
2.6
-1.2
6*2
4.5
4.7
2.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
4.5
2.6
1.0
5.4
4*2
3.9
2*9
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.7
0.1
5.0
3.0
1.8
3.0
-0.3
4.9
1.2
3.3
1.7
-0.6
4.9
2.5
2.5
0.4
0.6
4*6
2.4
2*6
2.0
0.0
1970.....
1971
1972
1.9
1.9
3.8
3.6
2.8
1
III Q
...
...
-0.7
-0.8
12.8
770-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES
IN OUTPUT PER MANHOUR.
TOTAL P R I V A T E ECONOMY 3 (ANNUAL RATE t PERCENT)
This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
Annual rates of change are not simple averages of the qmrterly rates of change.
4,-quarter percentage changes are centered uithin the spans. Annual figures are averages of these centered changes.
2
II Q
770-C. QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGES IN OUTPUT PER MANHOUR t
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY 2 <ANNUAL RATEi PERCENT)
...
...
51.3
53.6
55.3
•
IQ
(APRIL i9?2)
3
113
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
Employment and Unemployment-- Labor Force Survey
Series 40, 42, 43, 44,841,842, 843,844, 845,846,847, and 848.
These series are based on data obtained in the Current
Population Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This survey provides statistics on the employment status of the civilian noninstitutional
population 16 years old and over and is conducted each month
by trained interviewers. It includes about 47,000 households
representing 461 areas in 923 counties and independent cities
in the 50 States and the District of Columbia. The data relate
to employment activity or status during the "survey week*—
i.e., the calendar week (Sunday through Saturday) which includes the 12th of the month. The interviews are conducted
during the week following the survey week.
841. Total Civilian Labor Force comprises the total of all
persons 16 years old or over in the civilian noninstitutional
population, who are classified as employed or unemployed, as
defined below. Seasonally adjusted figures for the total civilian labor force are obtained by summing 12 components
which have been seasonally adjusted separately, including
employed and unemployed persons classified by various age
and sex characteristics.
842. Employed Persons comprise all persons 16 years old
or over who (a) did any work at all during the survey week as
paid employees or in their own business, profession, or farm,
or who worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in a family-operated enterprise, and (b) were not working or looking
for work but had jobs or businesses from which they were
temporarily absent because of illness, bad weather, vacation,
labor-management dispute, or personal reasons, whether or
not they were paid by their employers for the time off, and
whether or not they were seeking another job. Each employed
person is counted only once. Those who had more than one
job are counted in the job at which they worked the greatest
number of hours during the survey week.
The data include citizens of foreign countries who are temporarily living in the United States, but not on the premises
of an embassy. Excluded from the data are persons whose
only activity consisted of work around the house (such as ownhome housework, or painting or repairing own home) or volunteer work for religious, charitable, and similar organizations. Members of the Armed Forces stationed in this country
who are working in civilian jobs in their off-duty hours and
inmates working either in or outside an institution are also
excluded.
843. Unemployed Persons comprise all persons 16 years
old and over who did not work at all during the survey week
but made specific efforts to find a job within the previous 4
114
weeks (such as going to an employment service, applying
directly to an employer, answering a want-ad, being on a
union or professional register, etc.) and who were available
for work during the survey week (except for temporary illness). Also classified as unemployed are per sons who, though
available for work, did not work at all, and who were either
waiting to be called back to a job from which they had been
laid off or waiting to report to a new wage or salary job within 30 days.
Series 40 - Unemployment Rate, Married Males, Spouse
Present, measures the number of unemployed married men
living with their wives as a percent of their total number in
the civilian labor force.
Series 42 - Total Nonagricultural Employment measures
the total number of persons in the civilian labor force who are
employed in nonagricultural industries.
Series 43 - Unemployment Rate, Total, measures the total
number of unemployed workers as a percent of the total civilian labor force.
Series 44 - Unemployment Rate, 15 Weeks and Over, measures the number of persons unemployed for 15 or more continuous weeks as a percent of the total civilian labor force.
844. Unemployment Rate, Males 20 Years Old and Over,
measures the number of unemployed males 20 years old and
over as a percent of their total number in the civilian labor
force.
845. Unemployment Rate, Females 20 YearsQld and Over,
measures the number of females 20 years old and over as a
percent of their total number in the civilian labor force.
846. Unemployment Rate, Both Sexes 16-19 Years of Age,
measures the total of unemployed persons 16-19 years of age
as a percent of their total number in the civilian labor force.
847. Unemployment Rate, White, measures the number of
unemployed white persons as a percent of their total number
in the civilian labor force.
848. Unemployment Rate, Negro and Other Races, measures the number of unemployed Negroes and those of other
races as a percent of their total number in the civilian labor
force.
Data on unemployment are inversely related to general
business fluctuations; i.e., unemployment decreases during
periods of expansion and increases during periods of decline.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. (Source:
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857,
. ..
October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
March 1882 . . . .
May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(x)
18
8
32
13
65
30
22
46
13
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
.March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914 ...
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
.January 1910
-January 1913
August 1918 .
.January 1920
23
13 '
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
• October 1926
August 1929 . . . .
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
?8
41
34
93
93
^5
56
13
~9
9
12.
35
25
105
48
34
114
TxT
58
44
34
117
Average, all cycles:
27 cycles, 1854-1970 .
11 cycles 1919-1970 .
5 cycles 1945-1970..
19
15
11
33
42
49
52
56
60
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles 1854-1961 .
8 cycles 1919-1961..
3 cycles, 1945-1961!..
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
^November 1970
.May 1923
.May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
July 1957
May 1960
^November 1969
(x)
TxT
*52
60
59
2
3
*46
^48
42
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean .War, and Vietnam War), the postwar
contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
^Tentative and subject to revision as more information becomes available.
1
26
2
cycles, 1857-1969.
10 cycles, 1920-1969.
3
5 cycles, 19.45-1969.
4
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
6
3 cycles, 19.45-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
115
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Arabic number in.dicates latest
'calendar month of
data plotted ("7"=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
nlotted ("ill"
third quarter).
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969)
and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this chart
design.
This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
of measure see
comparison table
on the chart.
1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.
2. The vertical line represents reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase,
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970, and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April
1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.
This scale shows
.ctual series
,nits (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).
3. The horizontal line represents the leve
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November
1969,
the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
{November 1948,
July 1953, July 1957, and
May 1960)
that precede the troughs used for
this analysis.
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.
4. To facilitate comparison^ deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may ]>e either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.
This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.
-12
11/69
-6
I 5/70
+24
11/70
5/71
11/71
11/72
Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols* and Q mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)
5. The influence of excessive
fluctuations in series with MCD of
is modified by using the average
months centered on the peak as the
peak level.
irregular
3 or more
for the 3
reference
6« For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.
7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid line:*ww) .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954, 1958, and
116
Designations:
^'Coincident,"
^'Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.
This scale mea"sures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.
This time scale
*shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction,, recovery,
and expansion.
(r)= Current business cycle (reference) peak
© = Current business cycle (reference) trough
1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:——). The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries (those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:
, and knotted line:
i • » ••, respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (*) and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).
8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used
throughout the recovery comparison charts
are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research and are shown below.
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicate
the peak and trough quarters used for timing
quarterly data:
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIQ '53)
July '57 (IIIQ'57)
May ' 60 (IIQ '60)
Nov. '69 (IVQ'69)
Trough
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'49
'54
'38
'61
'70
(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54)
(IIQ '58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
|'""|<""|
|TIT
+
M9
i
49*
'
810, Composite index of
O'54
12 leading indicators,
reverse trend adjusted
Deviotions
from
preced.
peak
[
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
205, GNPJnJ958 dollars
Percent
-, +16
*M9
a
cycle
Percent
{ Coincident!
• 135
A.lual
data
for
current
+12
•800
+12
•130
+8
•775
+8
•125
+4
+4
•750
•120
0
•725
•115
-4
-4
• 110
-8
July* 71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
IQ'71
IIQ'71
IIIQ'Tl
IVQ'71
IQ'72
127.0
127.5
128.2
129.9
131-1
132.6
134.0
134.9
136.1
Percent
+12
Median 19.6
820.
• 700
5 quarters after
ref. trough
• 120
Composite index of
five coincident indicators * M9
• 115
+12
•135
B
+8
•110
•130
+4
-4
•125
•105
0
•120
-8
-4
•100
-8
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
16 months after
ref. trough
-12
•110
-12
Nov.'69© 121.9
Wov.'70<T) 117.4
July'71 123.8
Aug.'71 123.9
Sep.'71 125.1
Oct.'71 125.2
Mov.'71 126.3
Dec.'71 127.0
Jan.'72 129.2
Feb.'72 130.3
Mar.'72 131.0
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
+24 <4-« Months from ref. .
troughs
11/72 •
m
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
(
July' 71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
19.1
6.6
1.3
6.9
-0.6
6.8
-12
-6
0
11/69
5/70
11/70
+6
5/71
106.1
105.3
106.2
106.4,
107.0
107.6
108.2
108.9
109.6
+12
+18
+24
11/71
5/72
11/72
117
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
430 Unemployment rate, total, percent,
inverted scale
—
El
Actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
*k
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
I I I M I I I I I I I I I I Fl M I I I I
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
•4
edian
•5
•6
•7
16 months after*'49
ref. trough
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
July171
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
5.9
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.7
5.9
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
0'54
——„ . -^
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.' 72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
22.9
10.2
8.8
5.3
19.2
9.5
33,688
34,655
35,219
34,964
35,574
34,896
34,886
35,127
35,996
Percent
*'49
781c. Consumer price index, all items,
percent changes over 6-month spans
4-40
190 Stock prices, 500 cownon stocks
y
•130
(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
+3Q
Median
•120
+20
•110
•H
+10
•100
• +3
0
.90
•+2
-10
.80
Current data
Ondex: 1941-43=10}
-20
17 months after
ref. trough
• 70
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
99.00
-30
97.24
99.40
97.29
92.78
99.17
103.30
105.24
107.69
1
109.59
16 months after
ref. trough P
t
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
M
-12
11/69
1
April estimate (•••) includes weeks
©nded April 5 and 12.
118
Current dota
(Ann. rate,
percent)
54 O
54
m
1
Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
teough Nov. '70
_» -12
11/69
-6
5/70
11/70
j I I I II
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.8
2.7
2.8
3.3
3.1
1 1
+6
+12
+18
5/71
11/71
5/72 11/72
+24
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/' following this index)
Tables
Charts
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
descriptions
(issue date)
A2. National and Personal Income
220. National income, current dollars
222. Personal income, current dollars
224. Disposable personal income, current dollars
225. Disposable personal income, constant dollars . . .
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current
dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230 Total current dollars
231. Total, constant dollars
232. Durable goods, current dollars
233. Durable goods, except autos, current dollars . . .
234 Automobiles current dollars
236 Nondurable goods current dollars
237 Services, current dollars
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Nonresidential fixed investment
242 Nonresidential structures
243. Producers' durable equipment
244 Residential structures
245. Change in business inventories
Exports of goods and services
A6. Govt. Purchases, Goods and Services
260. Federal, State, and local governments
262 Federal Government
264 National defense
266. State and local governments
A7. Final Sates and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods . .
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable
gOOdS
A8. National Income Components
280 Compensation of employees
282 Proprietors' income
....
284. Rental income of persons
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving private and government
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298 Government surplus or deficit
A10.
Real (1958) Gross National Product
205 GNP constant dollars
246.
231.
247.
248.
Change in bus. inventories, constant dollars —
Personal consumption expend., constant dol. . .
Fixed invest., nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Fixed invest., residential structures, constant
dollars
249. Gross auto product, constant dollars
261 . Govt. purchases of goods and services, constant
dollars
Tables
Series
descriptions
(issue date)
Percent of National Income
9,23,41
9,18, 23, 41,61
9
9
9
5,69,76
5,69,76,95
5,69
5,69
5,69
Aug.
Jan,
Aug.
Aug.
Aug .
'71
'72
'71
'71
' 71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
10
10
10
10
5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug .
'71
'71
'71
' 71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
10
5,69
Aug.
'71
Oct.
'69
10
5,69
Aug.
'71
Oct.
'69
'71
'72
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
11
11
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70
Aug.
Jan.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
12
5,70
12
12
12
12
12,28
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70
5,70,78
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
13,51
13,51
13,51
5,71
5,71
5,71
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
May '69
May '69
May '69
14
14
14,55
14
5,71
5,71
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
11
11,18
11
11
11
A5. Foreign Trade
252
Charts
Historical
data
(issue date)
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200 GNP in current dollars
205. GNP in 1958 dollars.
210 Implicit price deflator
215 Per capita GNP in current dollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
5,71,89
5,71
'69
'69
'69
'69
15
15
15
5,71
5,71
5,71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
15
5,71
Aug.
'71
Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
16
5,71
5,71
5,71
5,72
5,72
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
*71
'71
Oct.
'69
Oct. '69
Oct.
'69
Oct.
'69
Oct. '69
17
17
5,72
5,72
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,72
5,72
5,72
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
9,18,23,41,61
18
18
11,18
18
5,69,76,95
5,72
5,72
5,70
5,72
Jan.
Jan.
Jan .
Jan.
Jan.
'72
'72
' 72
'72
'72
Oct.
'69
Oct.
'69
18
18
5,72
5,72
Jan.
Jan.
'72
'72
18
5,72
Jan.
'72
280A.
282A
284A
286A.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment
288A. Net interest of persons
73
73
73
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'72
'72
'72
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
19
19
73
73
Jan.
Jan.
'72
'72
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
20,39
20
20
20,39
20
21
21
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Dec.
Dec.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'70
Aug,
'68
21
Nov.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Aug. '68 #
Aug. '68
Apr. '72
Apr. '72
22,42
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
9,23,41
9,18,23,41,61
23,41,67
23,41
23
24, 41
24
24,41
24
6,69,76
6,69,76,95
6,77,103
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
Aug.
Jan.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Dec.
Aug.
Dec.
Jan.
'71
'72
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'72
Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Nov. '68
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
81. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg. . .
2. Accession rate manufacturing
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
50 Number of job vacancies manufacturing
46 Help-wanted advertising
48.
*41.
42.
*43.
45
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments . . .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities . . .
Unemployment rate, total
Average weekly insured unemploy rate
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47 Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction . . .
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, constant dollars
21,41
21
22,41
22
22
'68
June '69
'68
Aug.
Aug.
June '69
'72
'72
Apr.
Apr.
July '68
July '68
Feb. '69
July '68
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
June '71
13
*6.
8.
*10.
New business incorporations
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts, total value
Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . . . . . . .
25,39
25
25,39
25
25,39
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
11.
24.
9.
28
*29
New capital appropriations, manufacturing —
New orders, producers' capital goods indus
Construction contracts, commercial and indus. .
Private housing starts total
New building permits private housing
26
26
26
26
26,39
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Sep.
96.
97.
*61.
69.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
27
27
27,42,43
6,78
6,78
7,78,84
Sep. '71
Sep. '68
Sep. '71
July '71 Nov. '68
27
7,78
Sep.
12,28
28,40
28
28
28
29
29
29,42
29
7,70,78
7,78
7,78
7,79
7,79
7,79
7,79
7,79
7,79
Aug.
Dec.
30,40
30,40
30,40
30
7,79
7,79
7,79
7,79
Nov.
Jan.
Jan.
30
30
30,40
7,80
7,80
7,80
Aug. '71
Nov. '71
Oct. '71
31
31
31,57
31,57
7,80
7,80
7,80,91
7,80,91
Jan.
Jan.
Mar.
32
7,80
7,80
7,80
Aug.
Feb.
Oct.
...
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all industries
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
65. Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
18. Corporate profits after taxes, constant dollars ..
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
A11. Shares of GNP and National Income
19
19
19
Apr. '71
Sep. '71
Sep. '68
'71
Sep. '68
Sep.
'71
'71 Sep. '68
July '71
June '71
Apr. '71 Apr. '69
'71
Sep.'68f
'71 Oct.
'71 Feb.
June '71
Sep. '71
Sep.
June ' 71
June '71
Sep. '71
Sep.
Dec. '71
Feb.
Sep. '71
Sep.
'69
'69
'68
'68
'69
'68
July '71 Apr. '69
'71 May '69
'72 July '68
'72 Jan. '72
July '68
'69
'68
Mar.
Nov.
Percent of GNP
230A
241A
244A
245A
250A
262A.
266A.
Personal consumption expenditures
Fixed investment nonresidential
Fixed investment residential structures
Change in business inventories
Net exports of goods and services
Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services . .
State and local govts.' purchases of goods and
services
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
'Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'72
*72
'72
'72
'72
'72
'72
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
34.
35.
55.
58.
68.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Net cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
63. Unit labor cost, total private econ
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
32
32,42
'72
'72
'72
July '71
'71
'72
'71
'72
'72
June '69
June '69
Jan.
Jan.
July '68
Nov. '68
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
119
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) For chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
descriptions
(issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
July '64
D2. Balance of Payments and Components— Con
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534. U.S. official reserve assets
535. Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con,
86, Money and Credit
85. Change in money supply (Ml)
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money supply plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
33. Change in mortgage debt
*1 13. Change in consumer installment debt
1 12 Change in business loans
14. Liabilities of business failures
,
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans . . . „
7,81
Dec.
'71
33
7,81
Dec.
'71
33
33
33,40
7,81
Dec.
33
33
34
34
34
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields
66.
*72.
*67.
118
Consumer installment debt
36
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . . 36,42
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
36,42
Mortgage yields residential
36
35
35
35
35
35
7,81
7,81
7,81
7,81
7,81
7,81
7,82
7,82
7,82
7,82
7,82
8,82
8,82
8,82
8,82
'71
June '71
June '71
June '71
'71
June '71
Apr.
*71
Nov.
June
June
June
June
'71
'71
'71
*71
June '71
June '71
June '71
Nov. '71
July '71
37
6,83
Feb.
38
37
37
37
38
38
38
38
38
83
'71
'72
Jan.
'72
Dec. '71
June '71
Feb. '71
Feb. '71
Feb. »71
June '71
6,83
6,83
6,83
6,83
6,83
6,83
6,83
6,83
'71
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
Aug.
'70
Feb.
Aug.
Jan.
Nov.
'70
'68
Nov.
'68
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
C1. Aggregate Series
412. Mfrs/ inventories, book value
414. Condition of mfrs.' inventories
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity „ .
420. Household income compared to year ago
425. Probability of change, household income
435 Inrte
f r^
C
^
Vf
IOuseno tls
'
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D440. New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
0450.
D460.
D462.
D464.
D466.
Level of inventories, mfg and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade
.
42,43
44
44
44
44
77,84
84
84
84
84
July '71 Nov. '68
Sep.
'71 Nov. '68
Sep. '71
No . '68
Jan.
'71 No . '68
Jan.
'71
No . '68
45
45
45
45
84
84
84
84
'71
Jan.
'71
July '71
Jan.
'71
46
46
46
46
46
85
85
85
85
85
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
47
47
47
47
47
85
85
85
85
85
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Jan.
No . '68
No . '68
Nov.
'661
Nov.
'68
Nov.
Nov.
'68
68
f
Nov.
'613
Nov.
'68
'63
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'63
'68
'68
'68
'68
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
250. Balance on goods and services ,..
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances
517. Balance on current account
519. Balance on current account and long term
capital
521. Net liquidity balance ..
522. Official reserve transactions balance
48
48
48
48
48
49
49
49
49
49
49
120
'71
'71
8,86
Oct.
8,86
Oct.
8,86
July '71
July '71
Oct. '71
8,86
8,86
8,87
8,87
8,87
8,87
8,87
8,87
•Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
Tables
Series
descriptions
(issue dote)
May '69
May '69
Aug.'68#
50
87
Aug.
'70
May '69
50
50
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May ' 6©
13,51
13,51
87
87
87
87
87
'70
'70
May '60
May '60
51
51
87
87
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '89
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
51
87
Aug.
'70
May '69
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and other services imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in LLS
51
52
52
87
88
88
Aug.
'70
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
545.
544.
547.
546.
548.
549.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments, transportation and services
52
52
52
52
52
52
88
88
88
88
"70
70
°70
'70
'70
*70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'60
'80
'00
'69
'69
'69
561.
560.
565.
564.
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U S securities
53
53
53
53
53
53
88
88
88
88
88
88
'70
'70
, Sep. '70
Sep. '70
Oet. '70
Oct. '70
May
May
May
May
May
May
*@@
'60
'09
'60
'69
'60
575. Banking and other capital transactions
03. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod, acct
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod, acct
264 National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621 Defense Dept obligations procurement
647. New orders, defense products industries
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
54
54
54
13,55
55
55
55
55
55
D4. Price Movements
21 1. Fixed weighted price index, gross private
product
781 . Consumer price index, all items
784. Consumer price index, services
783. Consumer price index, commodities
782. Consumer price index food . .
750. Wholesale price index, all commodities
55. Whlse. price index, indus. comm
58. Wholesale price index, mfd. goods
751. Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds
752. Wholesale price index, farm products
56
56,66
56
56
56
57
57
31,57
57
57
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in private
nonfarm economy
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, nonagrt.
prod, or nonsupv workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation in private nonfarm
economy
,
746. Real avg. hourly compensation in private
nonfarm economy
..
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy . . .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . , .
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance
502. Exports, excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods, except
motor vehicles
508 Export orders nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
Charts
Historical
data
(issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.
93.
1 14.
1 16
115
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
820. 5 coincident indicators
825. 5 coincident indicators, deflated
830. 6 lagging indicators
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
81 5. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
Current issue
(pags numbers)
88
88
Sep.
Sep
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep,
Sep.
Sep.
f
Sep.
Sep.
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
Oct. '69
8.89
8,89
'71
'71
'71
Aug. '71
Nov. '71
Nov. '71
8.89
8,89
Sep.
Nov.
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
Sep.* 68#
8,89
8,90
'72
'72
' 71
'71
'71
'71
Feb. '72
July '71
Juno '71
Juno ' 71
8.89
8,89
Aug.
Aug.
8,89
Aug.
8,71,89
8,90,103
90
90
90
90
8,80,91
7,80,91
91
91
Feb.
Mar.
Juno
Juno
Juno
Juno
58
8,92
Fob.
'72
58
8,92
Feb.
'72
58
8,92
Feb.
'72
58,59
8,92
Apr.
'72
58,59
58,59
58
8,93
Apr.
8,93
Apr.
8,93
Apr.
'72
'72
'72
93
93
Feb.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries748 First year avg (mean) changes
749. Avg. (mean) changes over life of contract
my '00
May '69
May '69
May '69
May '69
Juno ' 69
Juno '69
June ' 69
Juno ' 69
Feb., '72
'72
May '69
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
841, Total civilian labor force
.
842. Total civilian employment
843 Number of persons unemployed
844. Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over . .
845. Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over .
846. Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of
aae
847 Unemployment rate white
848. Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
60
60
60
60
60
94
94
94
94
94
60
60
60
94
94
94
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'72
'72
'72
'72
'72
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr,
Apr.
'72
'72
'72
Apr. '72
Apr. '72
Apr. '72
'72
'72
'72
'72
'72
Series Finding Guide—Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
descriptions
{issue date)
041
D47
058
054
Employees on nonagri, payrolls
Industrial production
Wholesale prices manufactured goods
Sales of retail stores
•5, Rates of Change
200 GNP in current dollars
205 GNP in constant dollars
Tables
Series
descriptions
(issue date)
Dec. '71
Nov. '71
Nov.
'70
Nov.
'68
Aug . ' 68#
Nov.
'68
E5. Rates of Change-Con.
9,18,23,41, 61 6,69,76,95
61
95
5,95
61
E2, Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
62
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
62
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durables . . . 62
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods . . 62
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
62
income
860: Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
62
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
58
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
58
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
62
E3. Diffusion Indexes
01. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
D6. New orders, durable goods industries
D11. New capital appropriations, mfg
D34. Profits, manufacturing
D19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
023 Industrial materials prices
D5 Initial claims State unemploy insurance
Charts
Historical
data
(issue date)
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES-Con.
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
8,96
8,96
8,96
8,96
Aug.
'71
Jan.
'71
Dec.
'71
Oct.
'71
Oct. '71
Oct.
'69
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Feb. '69
Sep.
'68
Nov.
'68
Aug.
'71
July '68
8,93
Nov.
'71
June ' 68
8,92
Oct. '71
Nov.
'71
June '68
8,96
8,96
8,96
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
97,99
97,99
97
97
97
97,100
98
Oct.
'71
Nov.
'71
Sep. '71
Apr.
'71
Nov.
'71
Jan. '71
Nov.
'71
64
64
64
64
98,100
98,101
98,102
98,102
Oct.
'71
Nov.
'71
Jan.
'71
Jan. '71
65
65
Aug.
'71
Jan. '72
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators . . . . 65
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
65
47. Index of industrial production
65
May '69
Apr. '69
F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781 United States
133 Canada
132. United Kingdom
135. West Germany
136. France
138 Japan
137 Italy
56,66
66
66
66
66
66
66
8,90,103
103
103
103
103
103
103
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123 Canada
122. United Kingdom
126 France
125. West Germany
128 Japan
121 OECD European countries
127 Italy
23,41,67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
6,76,103
103
103
103
104
104
104
104
Oct.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146 France
145 West Germany
148 Japan
147 Italy
..
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
June '71 May '69
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
'68
June '69
June ' 69
Oct.
'69
Oct. '69
..
'71 May '69
'71
'71
'71
Apr . ' 71
Apr.
'71
Apr. '71
' The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
121
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in
numerical order. The numbers assigned to the series are
for identification purposes only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q"
indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period
except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series
titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series
may be found. See the table of contents for chart and
table titles and Series Finding Guide for page numbers.
The series in section B preceded by an asterisk (*) are
included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,
chart B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which
require seasonal adjustment have been adjusted by their
source.
The "0" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear
the same number and are obtained from the same
sources.
253.
Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department t
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, tot
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Eci
nomic Analysis
(A(
261.
Government purchases of goods and services tots
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, B
reau of Economic Analysis
(AH
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and ser
ices, total (Q).-Oepartment of Commerce, Bures
of Economic Analysis
(A(
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and ser
ices, national defense (Q).-Department of Cor
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, Di
State and local government purchases of goo
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commen
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
A National Income and Product
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser
ices as a percent of gross national produ
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of EC
nomic Analysis
(Al
200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)
241 A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(QK-Oepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
266.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, 88, El, E5)
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
210.
Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)
266A. State and local government purchases of goods a
services as a percent of gross national prodi
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ei
nomic Analysis
(Al
243.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q}.-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (CO.-Department ,
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(/^
Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census (A1)
244.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
271.
Change in business inventories, durable goi
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of E|
nomic Analysis
(A
273.
Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), lij
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(A'
215.
217.
220.
222.
224.
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Oepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
<A2)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, ,'Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(/
275.
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Change in business inventories, nondurable goi
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of El
nomic Analysis
(f\
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(t\
245.
Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
<A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
246.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
{Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AID)
225.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
226.
Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
Structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (^.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AID)
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product {Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
250.
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of gr
national product (Q).-Department of Commei
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
282.
122
Rental income of persons (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(>
284A. Rental income of persons ail a percent of g
national product (Q).-Department of Comme
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
286.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Oepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A5, D2)
Ct
d
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of gross natic
product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(A
284.
Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, 02)
Proprietors' income (QK-Department of
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj
ment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj
ment as a percent of gross national proi
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of I
nomic Analysis
(fe
ntles and Sources of Series
15.
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(86)
*16.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)
40.
*17.
Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, 88}
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)
Ml.
Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
Continued)
88.
Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
B8A. Net interest as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
90.
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
J2.
Personal saving (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
34.
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Oepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, 88, E3, F3)
20.
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
16.
18.
Government surplus or deficit, total (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
Cyclical Indicators
1.
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2.
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
3.
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
5.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(Bl, E3)
22.
*23.
24.
25.
26.
6.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
{63, B8, E3, E4)
8.
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(83)
}.
J.
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (83)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(83, 88}
Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(61, 88)
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, 88}
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
45.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating,
corporate, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(81)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(81)
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, 88, E3, E4, E5, F2)
Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
|B5, B8, E3, E4)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers'
capital goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
50.
Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (81)
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(64}
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of-Economic Analysis
(B2, B8)
53.
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*54.
Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83)
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83. B8)
55.
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4,88}
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56.
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(84)
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(82, 88)
57.
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(62)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5,D4, E3,E4)
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)
32.
33.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)
Index of net business formation (M).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 doHars (Q)Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(85)
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Deve]opment, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(85)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).^Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, and the Securities and Exchange
Commission
(B3, 88, Cl, C2)
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production,
manufacturing
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
123
Titles and Sources of Series
118.
(Continued)
*200.
63.
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
'
(85)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(84)
66.
Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
{86}
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
{B6,88}
68.
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(65}
69.
*205.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
425.
Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
430.
Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
435.
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(C1)
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6,10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(67)
811.
Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6,10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
813.
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).- •
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) (M}.~
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
814.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(87)
*71.
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOMX-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, 68}
815.
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
*72.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (EOM).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, 88}
816.
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19} (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
817.
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce,, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(67)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).»Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
0464. Sellinq prices, wholesale trade (Q),-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
85.
Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
93.
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(66)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56} (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87, E5)
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
825.
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D and 56D) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(87)
96.
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations,
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
manufacturing
{63}
830.
102.
103.
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-8oard of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86)
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(86)
112.
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
*113.
Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (86, B8)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
C Anticipations and Intentions
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(86)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(86)
124
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission, this series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (D).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section 6.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M)..
See in section B.
410.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, 6ureau of the Census and Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(C1)
211.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
(E|OQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
{C1)
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q)
See in section A.
253.
Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services
national defense (Q). See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus serie
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of th
Census
(D1)
502.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)
414.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
{66}
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
61.
412.
115.
Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
0440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
416.
420.
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(C 1)
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(Cl)
Titles and Sources of Series
546.
Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes {Q}.Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(05)
547.
749.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
'except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
{D1)
U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
{D2}
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05}
548.
750.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
{M}.—McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D1)
Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02}
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
549.
Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02}
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
512.
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
{D1)
560.
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
515.
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments {Q}.-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02}
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(02)
561.
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D6)
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02}
564.
781.
Index of consumer prices (M}.-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04, E5, F1)
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
783.
570.
Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(04)
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
575.
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EDO).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03}
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
601.
Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)
846.
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(06)
(Continued)
506.
508.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
535.
536.
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(02)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(02}
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
540.
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
542.
543.
544.
545.
Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)
616.
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(03}
625.
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
647.
New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (03)
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(03)
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
848.
741.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)
858.
Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
537.
541.
602.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q}.-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
745.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05)
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q}.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
746.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D.C.
2O4O2
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Series
47.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.
52.
Personal income (M). See in section B.
54.
Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
200.
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
206.
Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207.
Gap-the potential GNP {series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205) (Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(El)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41,43,47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
851.
852.
853.
854.
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total UiQM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (E2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(F 1)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-Institute Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F}}
United Suites, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M), See in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)
United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M),-Oominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di
Statistics (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes find corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, 05, D6, D11, D19,
D23, 041, 047, 054, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460. 0462, 0464, 0466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034.
Profits, manufacturing, FINCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19.
47.
121.
Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (IEOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statisttque et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
Vacancy nite in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
(Continued)
E Analytical Measures
126.
857.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
122.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123.
Canada, Index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125.
West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statlstisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
@FedFRASER