Full text of Business Conditions Digest : April 1963
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APRIL 1963
Business
Cycle
DATA THROUGH MARCH
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
JOHN C. BAKER, Public Information Officer
APRIL 1963
DATA THROUGH MARCH
Office of the Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
SAMUEL L. BROWN, Assistant Chief
Series ESI No. 63-4
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to these agencies in the list of series and sources on the back cover of
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Preface
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis . It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports . A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies.
Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
i
New Features and
Changes for This Issue
A limited number of changes are made from
time to time to reflect the change from one stage
of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available
economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a
particular series or series group. Such changes
may involve additions or deletions of series used,
changes in placement in relation to other series,
changes in components of indexes, etc. These
changes will be listed in this section each month.
The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. The level of the series on consumer installment debt (series 66) has been revised because
of a correction of the December 1958 figure.
2. The diffusion index for initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs ( D 5 ) , has
been revised back to December 1961 to reflect a
new seasonal adjustment of components .
ii
Contents
Page
Preface
New Features and Changes for This Issue
i
ii
Descriptions and Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3
1
1
1
1
2
2
3
4
5
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E. International Comparisons of Industrial Production
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January I960 to
Present
6
11
14
15
18
20
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During
Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business
Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3.—Diffusion Indexes — Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present .
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic
Activities: January I960 to Present
•
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January I960 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified
Time Spans and Percent of Series Rising: July I960 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers 1 New Orders, Durable Goods
Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Pricey
E. (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment "Insurance,
State Programs ._.
~
F. ( D 4 l ) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
C. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H, (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
iii
30
32
33
34
35
36
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Contents
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at
Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9
Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as
Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates
in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from
Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After
the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
48
53
57
58
59
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of
Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 ....
Appendix B.—Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for
Monthly and Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business
Cycle Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER
(May
1962 to June 1963)
Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the
Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
61
62
63
66
67
68
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration
with the National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for
much of the early research in this field. The book, "Signals of Recession and
Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more detailed description of the indicators and
measures used, and additional historical data. This book was issued as
Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261
Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . (207 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators,
appear in this book.
v
Descriptions
and
Procedures
Business Cycle Series
Data are shown in this report in three general
categories, as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table l).—Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Intensive research over many years has provided
a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more
specifically, a list of significant series that usually
lead, those that usually move with, and those that
usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. The series have been grouped,
in accordance with the NBER classification, as
"leading, " "roughly coincident, " or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in
this report for a more complete coverage of the
national economy. The series are described as
follows:
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, ( 2 ) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and ( 3 ) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
1
Method of Presentation
Other series.—Additional U.S. series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of
these series, such as change in money supply,
merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or
deficit, represent important factors in the economy,
but they have not qualified as indicators for various
reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally,
industrial production indexes for several countries
which have important trade relations with the United
States are presented.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . —
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning
Points
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1
Descriptions and Procedures
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing
81. Index of consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U . S .
business firms
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D, except for series 97 which is
the sum of seasonally adjusted components, and
series 9 which is based on unpublished source data.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting
agency will be substituted for the series mentioned
above whenever they are published.
MCD Moving Averages
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe
the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This
span is usually longer than a single month because
month-to-month changes are often dominated by
erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently
used 12-month span (change from the same month
a year ago) , and is different for different series
(see appendix C for MCD values) .
MCD is the first interval of months for which
the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large
for irregular series.
The differences between
moving averages of the period equal to MCD are
commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD
span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3rnonth moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month
spans. MCD moving averages all have about the
same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD
moving averages of highly irregular series, such
as Federal cash payments and Defense Department
obligations, will show their cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for
such smooth series as industrial production and
personal income. 1 MCD moving averages are
shown for some series in chart 1. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for
the 3 most recent years.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented— rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. 2 For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.— Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) . The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
*For a more complete description of MCD and its
use in studying economic series, see Business
Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1,
ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University
Press: 1961).
2
Various terms are used to describe the phases
of the business cycle. In this report bo'th "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe
the declining phase. No difference in meaning is
intended.
Descriptions and Procedures
they are also more irregular than the 3-month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes.
When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5) . Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
and D58) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator ( D 5 8 ) , comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators. They include two
indexes on capital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits (200 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers'sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments .
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions .—Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning
point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion.
The timing distribution is summarized by showing
the number of series reaching new highs and the
percent currently high for each of seyeral recent
months (see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of
"lows" will be prepared during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident
series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before
the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II
expansions and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions.) If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is
taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table 1) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs . Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence
of a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month. In
short, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.— Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change ("+" for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These
tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is,
they show which economic activities went up, which
went down, and how long such movements have
persisted. They also help to show how a recession
or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
C o m p a r i s o n s of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans
from previous reference peaks . This type of com-
Descriptions and Procedures
parison is designated as representing changes from
reference peak levels and from reference peak
dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed
from their respective reference peaks to dates
which are the same number of months beyond the
succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of
comparison is designated as representing changes
computed from reference peak levels and from
reference trough dates. Although the spans from
reference trough dates are the same for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates
are different, depending on the length of the contractions. This type of comparison answers the
question whether, and by how much, the current
level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level
at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how
the current situation compares in this respect with
earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates. This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for
each series. For example, the specific peak in
retail sales corresponding to the May I960 r e f e r ence peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock
prices is July 1959.
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit) .
Charts
Two types of charts are used to highlight the
cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators:
Historical time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series (charts 1, 2, and 3) . —
These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each
series against the background of expansions and
recessions in general business activity from 1948
to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts
indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of
shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates
(ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been
designated.
Five ratio scales and several arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the
various series. The scale selected for each series
is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of
change of various series can be compared with
each other only where scales are identical. See the
diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these
charts .
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal
to 100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) . — These
charts compare the performance of each series
during the current expansion or recession with that
during the corresponding phase of previous business
cycles. In these charts the usual date sequence
followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the
data are alined at a strategic point of the business
cycle, either the trough or the peak. Thus these
charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of a current expansion or the severity of a current recession relative to cyclical movements during the
corresponding phases of previous cycles .
In order to make historical comparisons, it is
frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only
approximate.
Nearly all series have undergone
change in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919. The principal cases of this
sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made.
Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the
corresponding phase of previous reference cycles .
Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases
of previous specific cycles in that series. In both
charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the
levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and
in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are
also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of
Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions
of these comparisons .
Descriptions and Procedures
Marts 1,2,
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Arabic numerals indicate latest
month for which data are plotted
Roman numerals indicate latest
quarter for which data are plotted
Indicates a break in continuity—
e.g., data not available, change in
sample reported, change in base used
for computations, etc.
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
Broken line indicates quarterly data
(49. GNP, current dollars, Q
V.
(billions of dollars)
•Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
42
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators I
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (Hrs.)
41
40 •
39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per TOO employees)
5.0
4.0 •
3.0
30. Nonagr. placements, all Indus, (thous.)
600,
500!
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per TOO employees)--in verted
2
"
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)-inverted
75
100
125;
150
175
200
225
250
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempl
insur. (thous.)—inverted
200
c
300;
400
500
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
IIS 2
" I*
I 12
7
6
5
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. do I.)
50
45
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft. floor
40
35
30
7
6
4
2
I
«?
^
§
3
i
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)-Q
/
,
27. Buying policy, capital expend, (percent reporting
commitments 6 mo. or longer)
^
75
50
25
7. Privaie nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
tf 1
1.2
1
1.0
«
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units!
(index: 1957-59=100)
140
120 2
100 |
80
I..!..!.. ..I..!..!.. ..I..!..!.. ..I..LJ™ ~LJU.. ..I..!..!..'..I..!..!.. ..l.-lMi^i..!..!.. ..I
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, end 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
New businesses and business failures
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
;14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.)-- inverted?
f
L
u u
•
—j~—
•
» «t
|15.. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.)--inverted]
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, <md 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
Profits and stock prices
35
30
25
20
16. Corporate prof ts, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q
,
15
120
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
90
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-C
12
10
8 3
V-
6
20
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,|
all industries (percent)
J-
16
12
A-*~x
(index: 1941-43=10)
30
20
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
1955
1956 1957 1958
i|
8
80
70
60
50 T
40 |
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1
1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
21. Change in bus inventories, all Indus, (bil. dol.)-Q l\
r
. / i /
l i t ;
31. Change in book value, mfg.
and trade inventories (bil. dol
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch. '.
mtls. (bil. dol.)j
26. Buying policy, prod. mtls. (percent reporting
commitments 60 da
32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower deliveries)
r\
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
I..I.. ..I..!..!.. ..l..l«&«:&t..l..l.. ..I..!..!.. ..IJUU ..I..!..!.. ..I..I..I.. ..!..!..I.
1948
1949
1950 T951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
-1 80
1963
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
T
60
_j
55 *
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)
Employment and unemployment
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
60 1
.1
50
3.0
4.0
43. Unemployment rate (percent)-inverted
"?
6.0 «
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, jnarried males
(percent)-'in verted
2.0
3.0
4.0 <
•£.
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unempl. (per cent)-in verted
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
120
100 en
80 |
60
..I..tut
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
..I..I..I.
1961 1962 1963
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES:
1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators —Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
130
Production
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)^
120
110;
100
90
500
475-.
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil dol.)-(
450
i
425 §
400
600
550
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q
500 "i
"I
450
X
400
600
550
500
57. Final sales (bil. dol.)-Q
450
400 2
1
350
300
250
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
13
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
B
(Nov.)
P
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
-i 2.2
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol
52. Personal income (bil dol
income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)
Wholesale prices
—I 80
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
14
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
P
T
P
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q
Investment expenditures
40
30
20
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100 ±
90
63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=100)-Q
110
100 i
1
90
70
60
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.)]
50
40
1
§
30
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
26
22
3
J*
48
44
40
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
<?
36 ^
32 8
28
24
„
*
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Qf:
i
4
3
il.il.,li.l..l..l..li.l..l.^
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
H_ast 2 quarters are anticipated.
1959 1960
196L 1962 1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6 2
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dol.)
1 4
- i
1.2 *
1.0
/*V
\
.8
1.6
87. General imports (bil. dol.)
rv^V-AA~
1.0
.8
1.0
t .8
88. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.)
^//VM/y
/v^^
+ .2
0
— .2
+1.0
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance
of payments (bil. dol.)-Q
+ .5
0
A/
"V
\
y
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "Mow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
- .5
x
1959
M
1960
-1.0
-1.5
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
16
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
82. Fed. cash payments to public (bit. dol.)
Federal budget and military obligations
120
100
"B
80
120
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol
100
80
-1 60
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)
•HO
°1
95. Surplus OK deficit,
Fea. Income and prod
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q
-10
-HO
L\
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.)
-10
2.5
2.01.5 §
1.0
5.0
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)
4.0 2
3.01
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
3,5
3.0
2.5 .o
2.0 *
o
1.5 *
1.0
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. Solid lines show the MCD moving averages. These averages are plotted 2 months behind current data
(broken lines) for series with an MCD of 5 and 21/2 months behind for series with an MCD of 6. See appendix C for MCD values.
See text for description of MCD moving averages.
17
Basic Data
I CHART 1 |
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance — Con.
^^^^|DJ
(Nev.)
(July)
(Get.)
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
(May)
(F«b.)
P_
T
85. Change in money supply (percent)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent)j,
i
t
'....i..»i!iiuiiiii
T
inwsi
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
ricesOndex: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100)
96. Mrfs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.),
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)
....
-J 4.0
1948
1949
1950 1951
1952
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960 1961
1962
1963
18
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
P
(July)
P
(Oct.)
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
industrial production indexes
140
120
121. OECD countries (index: 1957-59=100)
100 CM
•Jl
80 5
60
140
122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100)
120
CN
100 }!
§
80
60
123.
Canada (index: 1957-59-100)
120
100
1
80
47. United States (index: 1957-59-100)
120
CN
100 |
80
, .,1..!„!.. ..!..!..I.. ..I..!„!.. ..I..LJ«::*LJ£l.. ..I..I..L. ..I..!..!.. ..L.kJw ,J,.l..t.. ..I..I..I.. ..I JlKl..!..!.. ..I..!..!.. ..I..I..I.
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
1962
1963
19
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
T_
P
T
T
Industrial production indexes-con
140
125. West Germany (index: 1957-59=100)
120
100
80
200
180
160
140 3
120 §
100
80
160
140
120;;
1
100 "
80
160
140
127.
120
Italy (index: 1957-59=100)
100
04
80
60
40
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
Sec "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3, " page 5.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
20
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by GO ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1960
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers ,
manufacturing
(Hours per
(Per 100
prod . wkr . ) employees )
1*0.1*
February
March
April
May
July
August. ........
September
October
November
2. Accession 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff
rate, manu- cultural
rate, manuplacements , facturing
facturing
all industries
14-0.1
39-9
39-8
4o.i
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3-9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
(Thous.)
4. Number of
persons on
temporary
layoff, all
industries1
(Per 100
employees )
506
535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
46!
455
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
5. Avg. weekly
initial claims
for unemployment insurance, State
programs
( Thous . )
122
110
116
156
160
( Thous . ) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.)
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
2.6
145
177
154
153
166
128
2.9
183
2.9
©2.9
173
393
©222
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4.1
3-7
4.4
4.0
3.8
443
443
467
©440
478
497
481
519
502
527
542
544
©429
379
381
358
334
348
316
329
304
305
296
40.3
40.5
040.8
40.6
40.5
40.5
40.2
40.5
40.1
40.4
40.3
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.0
3.6
3.5
565
550
568
578
E602
546
560
551
540
569
563
529
1.9
1.9
1.6
GDI. 6
1.8
2.0
40 2
40 3
r3 9
p3 g
558
547
r2 0
pi 8
C.C.C]
(NA.)
39-9
39-9
39-6
39-^
39-5
39-3
©38.5
©3.3
2.3
6. Value of 24. Value of
mf rs . ' new mf rs . ' new
orders , dur-orders, machinery and
able goods
industries
equipment
industries
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14.34
13.84
l4.4l
14.62
13.74
_13.60
_ >_
13.22
351
373
385
381
5.04
5 1.14
ii
5.06
c r\£
5.12
5.17
5.01
4.78
1 o^
4.96
4.87
fT~~\ }
frUJ4.O5
»
Qn
4.ol
\. /-/:
4.
no
1961
February
March
April
May
June
July
September
October
39-0
39-3
39-3
39.7
39-8
39-9
40.0
4o.o
39.6
40.2
4o.6
December
4o.4
1962
January
February
39-8
April
lyky
June
July
Augus t
September
October
November
4.0
3.8
(E4.6
1.7
1.8
215
141
150
151
101
136
127
113
115
2.1
127
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.0
1.8
1.9
2.0
154
[y]82
118
112
116
114
128
131
120
129
139
114
©12.88
_13.36
_ _s
13.82
14.38
14.79
14.90
15.02
15.63
15.74
16.07
_16.10
s -i r\
16. 24
16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
16.27
15.91
15.89
16.57
16.34
16.02
304
291
279
280
309
303
300
300
298
317
4.79
li Qri
4 .oO
5.10
4.99
5.17
5-30
28
5 .r\Q
5.55
5.45
5-59
5
Tli
.74
lift
5.4o
C
5.78
5.71
5.59
5.47
r/•*
5
_. .oO
/'_
5.62
5.71
c £r\
5.60
r-
£r\
5.69
5.62
05.85
5.74
1963
February .......
March
April
May
n/n
"2
(MA)
179
112
108
316
295
[3277
2
257
z-16.71
r!7.15
{HJpl7.18
•"•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended April 6, 1963.
r5.75
r5.84
p5.64
Prior to April 1962,
Basic Data
21
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by OH] ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
Year and
month
1960
January
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
(Bil. dol.)
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38087
39o38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5,56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5.58
5.39
5.58
5.51
©5.27
5.39
5.33
36.21
36.49
37.49
35.62
©35.16
36.73
36.57
39.32
38.73
33.88
41.61
41.69
5.60
5.45
5.62
5.54
5.72
5.91
5.81
6.11
5.95
6.13
6.39
6.06
38.99
44.10
45.19
40.87
45.39
42.99
39.86
42.65
39.90
41.62
41.68
42.48
6.34
6.39
6.35
6.12
6.28
6.28
6.36
6.26
6.21
6.21
6.48
06.99
44.94
046.98
(NA)
r6.36
p6.50
(NA)
March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
11. Newly ap- 27. Buying
proved capital policy, capiappropriations, tal expend.,
602 manufac- pet. reporting
turing corpo- commitments
rations
6 mo. and over*
(BU. dol.)
2.24
2.01
©1.79
2.11
(Percent
reporting)
7. New private
nonfarm dwelling units
started
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. Index of 12. Net change
in business
new private
housing units population,
authorized by operating
local build- businesses
ing permits
(1957-59=100)
55
50
46
50
46
50
45
47
43
39
38
©37
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95c9
88.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
-91.4
©87.1
40
39
45
45
41
38
45
47
46
39
39
47
1,108
1,087
1,258
1,162
1,278
1,376
1,333
1,303
1,397
1,413
1,345
1,255
89.3
89.4
92.3
92.5
93.0
97.6
98.4
101.2
97.4
103 «1
102.7
111.6
41
47
44
46
39
41
38
46
048
47
47
43
1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
1,566
1,399
1,447
1,500
1,261
1,504
01,571
1,453
103.9
113.1
105.3
112.4
103.2
104.0
106.1
102.8
107.3
107.4
115.8
0 120.6
47
45
45
rl,220
rl,253
pl,471
117.3
rl!2.8
pl!3.9
(Thous.)
+19
+17
+14
+10
1961
February
March
April
May
September
1082
1.92
2.24
2013
'©+6
+10
+10
+10
1962
April
Ma y
June
July
September
October
November
December
1963
January ........
February
March
April
May
2.32
2.00
2.43
02.74
(NA)
+11
0+11
+10
+9
(NA)
Basic Data
22
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by OH ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
Year and
month
13. Number
of new business incorporations
1960
(Number)
14. Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profits
of business with liabil- after taxes
failures
ities of
$100,000 and
over
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(Number per
week)
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil. dol.)
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,035
14,264
14,097
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94-66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
©13,607
14,570
14,658
15,327
15,298
15,431
15,492
15,277
15,402
16,035
15,711
77.79
83.73
116.17
76.88
82.96
86.69
80.15
94.47
126.12
72.28
119.93
071.81
38
41
39
39
42
40
43
36
39
42
39
38
15,279
15,775
15,727
15,372
15,363
14,990
15,171
15,216
15,232
15,121
14,892
14,767
101.53
86.03
74.89
108 . 58
94.54
91.70
107.48
132.64
103.73
122.39
98.94
90.41
37
032
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
14,457
15,398
15,474
153.15
90.04
93.49
49
42
41
March
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
24.9
23.5
21.9
21.7
103.6
102.9
102.7
102.1
101.5
101.1
101 .5
100.7
100.8
101 .0
101.2
100.1
18. Profits
(before taxes) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
(Cents)
(Percent)
(1941-43=10)
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54. 81
©53.73
55.47
56.80
8.8
10.0
8.0
9.4
7.8
8.9
7.2
8.8
1961
February
April
May
June
July
August
October
3] 16, 149
©20.3
22.9
23.7
26.3
©99.6
99.9
99.8
100.9
101.1
101.7
102.3
103.4
103.6
103.2
102.9
103.2
©6.6
©8.2
7.6
9.1
7.9
9.3
08.6
010.0
1962
April
May
June
July
August
SpptpTriheT" . . , , . ,
October
December
25.6
26.1
26.1
027.3
102.2
102.4
102.8
101.9
102.2
102.3
103.4
102.1
0105.0
103.4
104.4
r!03.2
8.2
9.5
8.1
9.6
8.1
9.6
8.3
9.7
(NA)
(NA)
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
071.74
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
1963
March
April
May
June
1
April 18, 1963.
(NA)
102.9
r!02.3
p!02.7
65.06
65.92
65.67
1
68. 89
Basic Data
23
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by H ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3t 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators— Continued
Year and
month
1960
21. Change in
bus. inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs .! inventories,
purchased
materials
26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
( Percent
reporting)
( Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
+12.8
+11 o7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-006
+2,4
-2.1
-6.2
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3c2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.52
-0.78
-Oo77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.41
-0.30
105.7
104 o 3
102.4
103.8
104 ol
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98,5
©96.8
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4d
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+108
[HJ+7.8
+4o2
+6.1
+5.0
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-202
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0,9
+1.3
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
-0.37
-0.02
+0.02
+0.46
+0.23
+0.11
+0.31
+0.35
+0.06
+0.29
+0.34
+0.55
97,3
99.3
103.1
104.1
El04o4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3»1
+4c3
+3.3
-3oO
+5.7
+3 08
-1.9
+3.1
0+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.9
+0.7
57
061
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
51
56
®56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.53
+0.22
-0.10
-0.34
-0.31
-0.32
-0.05
-0.57
-0.55
-0.18
-0.52
-0.03
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94*9
96.4
95.8
r+3.3
p+2.4
(NA)
r+1.1
p+1.1
(NA)
50
55
54
50
52
54
r+0.40
r+0.72
[±Dp+0.79
95.5
95.1
94.4
*94.9
February
March
April
May
+1008
+4.4
July
+2.1
-1.1
December
1961
February
April
May
©-3.6
+2.1
July
+4oO
September
+6C0
December. ......
1962
(HI+6.7
April
May
+4cO
July
August
+1.0
+1.2
25. Change in 23. Index of
manufacturers ' industrial
unfilled or- materials
ders, durable prices*
goods industries
(1957-59=100)
1963
February
March
April
May
'•April 18, 1963.
p+2.5
Basic Data
24
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by CE1 ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
1960
January.
March
April
May
July
August. ........
September
October
December
1961
January
February
March
April
May
Julv
September
October
December
1962
January.
February
April
jyfeiy
July
August
September
October.
November
1963
January
March
April
May
June
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Thous.)
42. Total
43. Unemnonagri cul- ployment
rate, total1
tural employment,
labor force
survey1
(Thous.)
40. Unemployment
rate, married males -1
45 . Average 46. Index of 47. Index of
weekly in- help-wanted industrial
sured unem- advertising production
in newsployment
rate, State papers
programs
( Percent )
( Per cent)
(Percent)
(1957=100)
(1957-59=
100)
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
60,521
60,863
60,464
61,144
61,252
61,215
61,090
60,982
61,114
60,857
61,142
©60,801
5.29
4.96
5.45
5.21
5.18
5.46
5.48
5.66
5.60
5.98
6.20
6.60
3.38
3.11
3.53
3.35
3.42
3.60
3.72
3.85
3.80
4.28
4.22
4.74
4-27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4-19
4.39
4-67
5.10
5.38
5.68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111 .7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
60,980
60,912
6l,3H
61,111
61,091
61,448
61,254
61,283
61,330
61,476
61,766
61,788
6.68
7.03
6.82
7.01
©7.11
6.91
6.96
6.67
6.69
6.42
6.07
5.98
4.78
©5.09
4.72
4.91
5.00
4.78
4.74
4.61
4.54
4.12
3.94
3.91
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.0^
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
55,536
55,583
55,647
55,597
55,580
61,882
62,148
62,356
62,295
62,552
62,541
62,715
63,017
63,074
63,036
62,708
63,248
5.84
5.69
5.49
5.58
5.52
5.50
5.43
5.67
5.63
[HI 5. 34
5.76
5.54
3.81
3.59
3.53
3.69
3.48
3.64
3.54
3.54
3.43
[H]r3.35
r3.43
r3.57
4.71
4-52
4.41
3.93
(D3.82
3.96
4.25
4.41
4-38
4-55
4.84
4.79
102.3
105.9
EJ106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
92.8
96.8
95.9
e95.2
114.3
116.0
117.0
117.7
118.4
118.6
119.3
119.7
119.8
119.2
119.6
119.1
r55,536
r55,727
0p55,928
62,988
63,245
[363,628
5.77
6.09
5.59
3.81
4.04
3.50
4.84
4.69
4.39
2
4.23
e97.5
elOO.5
p98.5
118.9
rl!9.4
[Klpl20.4
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
440.9
442.3
439.7
437.7
©433.9
443.9
450.4
463.4
467.4
470.8
471.6
0477. 7
(M)
e
Estimated.
^•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended March 30, 1963.
Basic Data
25
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by E ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1960
49. Gross national product
in current
dollars
57. Final
sales
(series 49
minus 21)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
501 o 7
490.8
504.8
500 0 4
503.7
5010 5
503.3
504.4
©500.8
©504,4
513.1
511.0
522.3
518o3
538 C 6
532 0 6
April
May
July
October.
51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
53. Labor
retail stores
income in
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods
(1957-59=100)
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
395.7
395.2
395.3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101 o 5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101 0 3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
403.4
404 0 2
408.5
410.6
413.3
416.4
420.1
418.3
419.7
423o6
427.8
430.5
1040 0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107cl
108.5
1080 9
108.5
108.3
110 01
111.7
111.8
©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827
101.0
101.1
101. 1
100.9
100.9
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.9
2,009.7
1,916.6
1,985.3
2,044o4
2,015,0
2,000.2
2,054o8
2,017.0
1,988.5
2,080.9
2,090.5
2,066.9
428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440 o 7
441 o9
443.0
443.5
445.6
448.2
450.4
110.8
112 01
113.0
115.0
115.1
1U.9
115.2
115.0
114.8
114.8
114.8
114.8
18,898
19,027
19,328
19,673
19,508
19,163
19,761
19,645
19,693
19,821
20,230
20,203
100.8
100.7
100.7
©100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.8
100.9
HD100.9
100.8
100.7
532,148.6
2,086.3
p2,091.6
452.4
r451.1
[H]p452.7
114.5
rl!5.2
®pll5.9
r20,247
r20,452
[H]p20,695
100.5
rlOO.5
100.5
1
100.3
1961
March
April
May
September
1962
February
March
April
May
545 cO
538.3
552.0
547.9
July
Augus t . .
555.3
554c2
563.5
562.3
[E]p572.0
E]p569.5
1963
March
April
May
June
1
Week ended April 16, 1963.
Basic Data
26
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by dD ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
1960
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
35.15
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
36.30
35.90
October
November
35.50
62. Index of
wage and
salary cost
per unit of
output, total
manufacturing
63. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output, total GNP
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
96.7
98.1
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
99.8
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.4
101.0
103.2
104.3
105.4
105.0
64. Book value
of manufacturers ' inventories, all
manufacturing
industries
65. Book value 66. Consumer
of mf rs . ' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing ind.
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54-9
55.0
54-7
54-4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
(Mil. dol.)
Revised1
38,971
39,452
39,878
40,377
40,672
41,013
41,299
41,508
41,762
41,898
42,032
42,143
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54-4
54-8
55.0
55.2
21 .8
21.8
21.7
21 .7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,118
42,032
41,986
41,865
©41,856
41,900
41,904
41,959
42,008
42,170
42,439
42,787
55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
57.2
57.3
57.2
57.4
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.7
22.8
23.0
43,066
43,338
43,716
44,209
44,648
45,069
45,455
45,813
46,015
46,399
46,980
47,438
r57.5
0P57.7
(NA)
23.0
®p23.0
(NA)
47,942
048,378
(NA)
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
( Percent )
5.34
5.35
4.97
4-99
1961
33.85
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
©33.50
34.70
35-40
December
100.9
101 .1
101.2
100.0
99.6
98.8
98.3
97.4
Q97.3
97.5
98.0
97.5
106.1
105.8
105.8
©104.7
4.97
4-97
4-99
©4-96
1962
January
February
35.70
April
36.95
Nfay
July
038.35
October
November..
December
37.95
98.0
98.2
97.7
98.7
98.7
98.6
97.6
S98.9
96.4
97.7
96.8
r97.4
105.5
106.9
H107.6
106.8
4-98
5.01
4-99
05.02
1963
February
March
April
May
2
37.95
96.9
r97.9
P97.2
(NA)
2
38.65
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
Anticipated.
5.00
Basic Data
27
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by \K\ ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal'Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
Year and
month
1960
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
1961
January
March
April
May
July
1962
January
April
May
July
August
October
November •••••••
86. Exports,
excluding
military
aid shipments,
total
87. General
imports ,
total
88. Merchandise
trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess,
receipts(+)
or payments
(-) in U.S.
balance of
payments
82. Federal cash
payments
to the
public
83. Federal cash
receipts
from the
public
84. Fed- 95. Surplus 90. Defense
eral sur- (+) or def- Department
plus (+) icit (-),
obligations,
or defi- Federal in- procurement
come and
cit (-)
product acct.
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil.dol.) bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667 06
1,680.6
1,645.3
3 ,246.3
1,343.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
+217. 7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,622.7
1,711.6
1,750.7
1,661.5
1,585.1
1,581.9
1,688.5
1,688.9
1,678.4
1,779.8
1,733.1
1,724.8
1,161.4
1,149.8
1,162.9
1,152.0
1,152.9
1,173.8
1,379.3
1,253.6
1,262.0
1,300.1
3,308.5
1,314.5
+461.3
+561.8
+587.8
+509.5
+432.2
+408.1
+309.2
+435.3
+416.4
+479.7
+424.6
+410.3
1,654.8
1,812.1
1,674.4
1,802.6
1,782.1
1,838.3
1,728.9
1,687.3
1,943.3
1,492.8
1,695.2
1,838.9
1,327.4
1,315.4
1,339.3
1,363.8
1,386.4
1,342.4
1,361.8
1,364.2
1,476.4
1,318.9
1,431.7
1,371.9
+327.4
+496.7
+335.1
+438.8
+395.7
+495.9
+367.1
+323.1
+466.9
+173.9
+263.5
+467.0
982.1
2,130.6
(M)
1,093.2
1,493.2
(NO
-111.1
+637.4
(NA)
-680
-775
-1,157
1
-1,313
-342
*+159
-913
-1,264
-495
-214
-681
-791
89 o9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95oO
92.7
102.0
96.3
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
101.4
99.5
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8c5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
-0.6
+3.2
95.5
95.4
107.4
100.6
110.9
106.5
97.7
112.7
104.1
109.8
106.5
104.3
94.2
94.1
92.6
97.0
99.8
97.7
91.2
101.0
99.2
99.5
101/3
101.7
-1.3
-1.3
-14.8
-3.6
-11.1
-8.8
-6.5
-11.7
-4.9
-10.3
-5.2
-2.6
115.1
108.8
107.4
110.1
106.8
108.9
116.3
111.6
109.9
118.6
114.7
115.2
101.7
101.3
98.1
107.8
109.9
104.4
111.2
110.1
107.6
107.8
109.0
109.0
-13.4
-7.5
-9.3
-2.3
+3.1
-4.5
-5.1
-1.5
-2.3
-10.8
-5.7
-6.2
116.7
106.5
117.0
107.7
109.8
106.9
-9.0
+3.3
-10.1
+8el
+5.5
+1.5
-0.4
-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.3
-2.4
-0.7
-0.9
-1.4
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,488
1,392
2,204
1,256
1,256
945
1,468
1,096
1,277
1,555
1,230
1,047
1,220
1,343
1,181
2,278
1,933
1,354
1,286
1,589
1,872
1,211
1,254
1,831
1,182
1,325
1,934
1,386
1,037
1,805
1,755
1,022
1963
February.
April
Mav
1
(NA)
Includes single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
2
(NO
1,732
1,228
(NO
Basic Data
28
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by CEJ ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
1960
February
^rch
April
Miy
June
July.. . .
August. ........
October
December
1961
January
February
March
April
May
September
October
December.
1962
January.
February
April
May
July
October
November.
91. Defense 92. MiliDepartment
tary prime
obligacontract
tions,
awards to
total
U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.) (Mil- dol.)
85. Percent 98. Percent 93. Free 81. Index 94. Index
change in change in reserves* of conof contotal U.S. money supstruction
sumer
money
ply and
prices
contracts,
supply
total
time deposits
value
( Percent )
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
96. Mfrs. 1
unfilled
orders,
durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
4,674
3,624
3,876
3,316
4,100
3,639
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28
-0.14
-0.38
-0.10
0.00
-0.05
-0.05
+0.53
+0.67
+0.38
+0.47
+0.28
+0.52
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120
47.56
46.77
46.00
45.32
45.13
44.91
44-67
44-50
44-37
43.60
43.19
42.89
3,702
4,153
3,714
3,441
3,736
3,784
3,702
5,037
4,718
4,252
4,112
4,549
1,944
2,153
1,757
1,910
1,530
1,993
2,087
2,232
2,158
2,651
2,379
2,281
+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+0.56
+0.74
+0.51
+0.46
+0.64
+0.36
+0.45
+0.32
+0.58
+0.67
+0.62
+0.57
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.0
103.9
103.9
104.1
104.4
104.4
104.5
104.5
104.5
104.5
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
42.52
42.49
42.51
42.97
43.20
43.31
43.62
43.97
44.03
44.32
44.66
45.21
4,558
4,076
4,143
4,505
4,107
3,981
4,908
4,347
3,838
4,869
4,927
3,849
3,073
2,135
2,225
1,885
1,808
1,808
2,068
2,488
2,242
3,089
3,154
1,758
+0.14
-0.27
+0.14
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
+0.55
+0.55
+0.68
+0.79
+0.57
+0.82
+0.69
+0.21
+0.42
+0.51
+0.04
+0.46
+0.84
+0.91
+1.03
+555
+434
+382
+441
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
+419
+473
+268
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.2
105.4
105.4
105.5
105.6
105.9
105.9
105.9
105.8
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.74
45.96
45.86
45.52
45.22
44.90
44.85
44.28
43.73
43.55
43.03
43.00
4,788
4,142
(NA)
2,390
2,674
(N/0
+0.54
r-0.07
p+0.20
+0.98
r+0.44
p+0.72
+384
r+300
p+271
106.2
106.2
(M)
121
130
(NO
r43.40
r44.12
P44.90
8.05
7.74
7.15
7.07
6.72
6.58
6.68
6.83
7.15
7.06
7.24
7.76
1963
February
March
April
May
(NA)
Basic Data
29
Table 1.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Lew values preceding current highs are indicated by (U) and current highs are indicated by GE1 ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
International comparisons of industrial production
1
Year and
month
1960
121. OECD,
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
May
Julv
December
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
product ion
(1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
111
112
Ilk
March
April
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
113
ilk
116
118
116
116
117
118
118
109
109
112
113
109
110
112
112
111
111
112
112
112
110
112
107
108
111
110
110
110
110
113
115
115
116
118
118
115
118
109
10k
105
105
103
103
10k
107
107
109
ill
105
105
105
10*1
10k
105
105
105
105
109
109
108
107
105
10k
120
120
122
112
118
132
109
122
123
136
137
1^0
110
112
111
115
115
117
119
119
121
119
123
12k
126
125
127
127
126
129
129
iko
1^3
11*5
148
151
151
157
158
1961
117
119
119
March
April
May
120
119
120
120
July
119
September
November .......
December.
120
121
122
123
110
110
111
110
113
113
111
110
107
109
109
ill
12k
125
117
119
126
126
12k
121
122
121
12k
123
12k
128
121
126
129
125
131
130
129
128
128
133
130
133
133
126
119
119
r!29
128
135
134
P120
(NA)
(NA)
112
113
112
112
112
109
109
109
Ilk
Ilk
115
116
108
113
115
Ilk
119
119
121
121
121
121
125
126
127
130
134
134
134
136
136
138
137
140
145
149
148
162
160
166
166
172
175
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
190
188
193
192
195
194
191
193
194
190
179
182
183
187
190
191
1962
January
April
Nhv
July
Augus t • . .
November
r!22
124
r!23
r!24
126
r!24
125
r!25
127
r!25
127
r!27
110
110
116
116
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
r!09
rl!9
111
ilk
116
ill
118
118
119
119
120
120
119
120
119
127
127
128
129
129
130
130
132
133
135
135
r!49
r!50
r!53
r!58
192
160
r!90
(NA)
r!95
(NA)
1963
125
(NA)
106
119
(NA)
(NA)
March
April
May
June
-'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.-RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased'by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure
change,
of
1948- July
change
1961 * to
Aug.
19(33
1962
Aug.
to
Sept.
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
to
Nov.
Nov.
to
Dec.
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan.
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
Mar.
to
Apr.2
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing
Percent . .0.5
6.0
. .do
3.4
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries... . .do
11.9
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted). ..do
4. Number of persons on temporary lay19.4
..do
off, all industries (inverted)
5. Avg. weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State (inverted).
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
machinery and equipment industries...
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings..
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
-0.7
-2.4
-1.6
-8.3
-1.0
+0.7
-5.0
+5.3
-2.0
+5.4
+23.1 +10.0
+0.7
-10.0
-1.1
-5.6
-0.2
-2.8
-6.0
-5.3
-0.2
+0.2
-2.6
+11.4
-2.0
+5.5
0.0 +10.0
0.0
NA
+0.5
NA
-2.3
+8.4
-7.5
-7.8
+18.0
-57.0
+37.4
+3.6
0.0
+0.7
-6.4
+0.3
+6.6
+6.1
..do
7.0
+1.6
+1.0
. .do
5.6
-2.2
-0.1
+4.3
-1.4
-2.0
+4-3
+2.6
+0.2
..do
6.1
-1.9
+1.6
-1.2
+4.1
-1.9
+0.2
+1.6
-3.4
..do
12.4
+7.0
-6.4
+4.3
+0.1
+1.9
+5.8
+4.5
NA.
. .do
6.4
-1.6
-0.8
+4.3
+7.9
-9.0
+2.2
NA
11.2
+21.5
7.6
+21.1
+4.3
-2.1
0.0
-8.5
+9.3
-4.3
4.1
+3.7
-15.9
+19.3
+4.5
-7.5
-16.0
+2.7
+17.4
+4.1
-2.7
-3.8
+1.0
-2.1
0.0
+7.<
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
do
27. Buying policy, capital expend., per cent
reporting commitments 6 mo. or more.. ..do
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
. . do
29. Index of new private housing units
. .do
authorized by local bldg. permits
12. Net change in business population,
Thous
3.9
-3.1
3
3.0
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent . .
-1
+0.3
NA
+12.8
+4.4
+0.1
+0.1
-0.7
+7.8
-1
0.0
NA.
-1.5
-0.8
+6.5
+0.5
16.3
-23.4 +21.8
-18.0
+19.2
+8.6
-69.4
+41.2
-3.8
17.3
7.7
-18.4 +11.1
00
+2.8
-1.3
-15.0
+8.7
+4.6
+1.0
+11.9
-32.4
+14.3
NA.
+2.4
-1.1
-0.3
-0.6
+0.4
14. Current liabilities of business
. .do
15. No. of business failures with liabil..do
ities of $100,000 and over (inv.)
do
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.... ..do
0.7
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
7.7
do
sales all mfcr corporations
22. Ratio, prof its (after taxes) to income
5.8
do
oriffinatinff corporate all indus. <
2.6
..do
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
Ann. rate,
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after val. adjustment3 ^.... bil.dol. 3.1
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
4.0
..do
-1.5
00
0.0
+2.7
NA
+2.5
-0.9
-3.2
+1.0
+6.9
NA
+4.3
+3.9
+0.2
-3.0
+1.3
-6.3
+8.7
-1.9
-5.7
+5.0
+0.2
-0.9
NA
-0.2
+1.6
-0.7
-0.1
+1.6
+0.4
0.0
NA
0.0
+5.8
-5.5
-1.9
-2.0
+10.0
-1.8
+9.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
+4.2
+4.0
+3.8
+0.02 +0.37 -0.34
+1.6
+1.0
-0.5
+0.49
-0.6
+0.43
-0.3
+0.32
-0.4
+0.07
-0.7
-10.3
0.0
-0.52
+0.3
+4.c
+1.3
20. Change in book value of mfrs..1 invenr
1.7
..do
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report, commitments 60 days or more.. Percent . .6.2
32. Vendor performance, percent report11.3
..do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
Bil. dol. 0.46
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent . .2.2
-0.4
+0.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cul-
..do
0.4
-0.1
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
+0.3
+0.4
0.4
+0.5
-4.4
0.0
+0.1
+0.7
+3.1
-0.1
4-7
5.8
+5.2
+2.3
-0.5
-7.9
-2.4
+0.9
+3.8
-4.1
-0.4
-4.2
-6.7
+0.4
-5.5
-6.0
+0.6
+8.2
+13.4
5.6
-3.8
+0.7
-3.9
-6.4
+1.0
-1.0
+3.1
+6.4
42. Total nonagri cultural employment,
..do
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
..do
State programs ( inverted )
See footnotes at end of table.
*3.
Analytical Measures
31
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
50 Gross national product in 1954 dol.3.
49 Gross national product in cur dol
57 Final sales (series 49 minus 21)3
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers..
Avg.
Measure change,
of
July
change 1948to
19611
Aug.
Percent. .
..do
. .do. .
do
do
..do
..do
3.3
1.2
1.4
1.9
1.6
1.6
0.7
-0.9
+0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
-1.8
+0.2
..do
. . do
1.1
1.6
. .do
196>3
1962
Dec.
to
Jan.
Jan.
to
Feb.
Feb.
to
Mar.
+2.4
-0.2
+3.1
+0.4
-2.0
+0.8
Aug.
to
Sept.
Sept.
to
Oct.
Oct.
to
Nov.
-4.3
+4.3
-0.5
-0.9
+0.3
+1.3
+1.5
+1.5
+0.5
+0.6
-1.1
+0.5
+4.0
+0.4
-2.9
-0.3
+0.3
+0.4
0.0
+2.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.0
+0.1
-1.4.
Nov.
to
Dec.
-0.7
-0.4
NA
Mar.
to
Apr.2
+1.5
+1.3
+0.1
+4.6
+0.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
+0.2
+0.6
0.3
-0.1
+0.1
0.0
3.6
+3.8
0.7
+1.3
1.0
+0 7
09
00
+0 4
+0 2
-0 2
+0 3
+0 2
+0 3
NA
1.0
1.2
+0.4
+0.8
+0.4
+0 4
0.0
+0 8
+0.4
+1.3
+0.9
+1.0
0.0
+1.1
0.0
+0.9
NA
NA.
3.0
-0.4
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
0.0
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
-0.2
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
..do
62. Index of wage and salary cost per
unit of output, total manufacturing.. ..do
63. Index of labor cost per unit of out. .do
put total GNP3
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
. .do
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
..do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
3
. . do
loans 19 cities .
5
-1.0
-2.5
+1.3
-0.9
0.0
+0.6
-0.5
-0 7
+1.0
-0.7
NA
+0.6
-0.4
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship3.7 -2.4 +15.2 -23.2 +13.6 +8.5 -46.6 +116.9
..do
-4.2 -20.3 +36.6
+8.6
3.5 +0.2 +8.2 -10.7
. .do
Mil. dol. 58.6 -44.0 +143.8 -293 . 0 +89.6 +203.5 -578.1 +748.5
88 Merchandise trade balance^
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
332 -467
. .do
U.S. balance of payments3 ^
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 7.2 -4.0
-1.0
7.5
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
Ann. rate,
Ml. dol. 5.7 +3.6
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3.2 -0.2
do
and product account
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . . 25.4 -28.3
15.6 -11.4
..do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to
29.2 +20.3
. . do
85. Change in money supply excluding time
0.22 -0.48
deposits^"
. .do
-1
Mil. dol. 138
93 . Free reserves ^
Percent. . 0.3 +0.1
81. Index of consumer prices
8.3 +0.9
94. Index of construe, contracts, total... ..do
2.1 -1.3
96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, dur. goods......do
3
6.3 +2.5
97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg. . ..do
98. Change in money supply including time
..do
0.19 -0.47
deposits^
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
-110
-3.3
+1.1
+0.4
+1.3
-8.7
-2.3
+7.9
+0.2
0.0
-1.2
+1.9
+9.9
-2.6
-0.8
-8.5
+5.1
-0.5
-2.8
+12.3
-13.4
-25.2 +74.1
-11.7 +26.9
NA
-0.5
-2.8 -41.8 +69.5 -29.1
+1.2 -21.9 +24.4 -13.5
NA
NA
-9.9
+37.8
+2.1 -44.3 +35.9 +11.9
NA
+0.55
+0.41
+44
0.0
+3.5
-0.4
0.00 +0.13 -0.14 -0.61 +0.27
-84
+116
-29
+54 -205
NA
0.0
0.0 -0.1
+0.4
NA
+5.1 +12.2 -12.3
+7.4
-0.1
-1.2
+0.9 +1.7 +1.8
NA
+7.2
-1.5
-64
+0.3
-4.2
-1.2
+0.42 +0.38
+0.07 +0.12
-0.05
-0.54 +0.28
This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal ad3
justment made new computations feasible.
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
Quarterly series;
figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter. Thus the figure for GNP (series 49)
shown in the July-Aug. column refers to the change from the 2nd quarter of 1962 to the 3rd quarter of 1962.
^Figures
5
are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
Anticipated. The percent
change from 1st quarter to 2nd quarter, 1963, based on anticipated data is +1.8.
Analytical Measures
32
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates —
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
3d month before business cycle peak
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1957
July
1953
Aug.
1948
May
1960
NBER LEADING
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
1
2
2
Apr.
1953
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
19
16
14
2
1
3
2
1
11
1
3
4
1
2
2
3
1
4
1
23
0
23
0
Feb.
1960
INDICATORS
3
*18
0
Apr.
1957
X
18
0
4
19
21
2
20
1
1
12
1
23
0
1
2
1
3
2
1
23
4
1
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
3
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
1
1
6 months
5 months
4
1
2
3 months
1
Benchmark month
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
11
9
2
3
3
11
27
5
11
45
2
2
3
2
3
11
27
4
4
11
36
Jan.
1957
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Nov.
1959
1
2
3
3
11
27
3
6
11
55
Current expansion
6th month before business cycle peak
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was* reached
1
4
4
11
36
1
Dec.
1962
Jan.
1963
Feb.
1963
Mar.
1963
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7 months
,
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
17
1
1
1
19
16
23
4
6
1
4
2
3 months
2
2
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
*18
6
2
1
1
1
4
4
4
2
4
1
2
2
23
9
14
2
16
14
9
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
23
9
2
2
1
23
4
2
2
2
1
"3
23
13
"3
17
18
1
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
3
11
27
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
S months or more
1
1
6 months
5 months
2
3 months
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
1
4
2
4
Benchmark month
1
1
1
5
11
45
2
3
6
11
55
5
3
11
27
2
3
11
27
1
1
3
2
2
11
18
1
3
1
3
11
27
"<S
11
55
All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from1 the distribution.
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval 1
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus. (21 Indus.
[3-mo. interval ]
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations;
602 cos. [4-quarter interval J
.— 15 indus. [1-quarter interval ]
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting [
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval ji
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-quarter interval ]|.
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.
[3-mo. interval ]
D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.
(47 areas)—inverted
[3-mo. interval ]
1948 1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
34
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
T_
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
7
Percentage
Expanding
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
I
D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
100
50
0
D58. Wholesalee prices, mfrd.
mtra. goods
goi
(23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval]
-| 100
50
0
D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[3-mo. interval ]
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5.
1961
1962 1963
35
Analytical Measures
CHARTS • DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
T
P
T
P
P
Percentage
Expanding
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
Actual
Anticipated
Change in total carloadings
D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.)1
[4-quarter interval]
100
50
0
D36. New orders, dur. goods mfrs. (400 cos.)
[4-quarter interval ]
100
50
jr*
0
D48. Carloadings (19 mfrd. commodity groups)*
[4-quarter interval ]
100
50
0
D61. New plant and equipment expend. (17-22 indus.)
[1-quarter interval ]
100
A
50
X
0
iil
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
till
llll
1958
1959
1960
1961
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (January 1963)
D48 (December 1962)
D61 (February 1963)
Latest interval shown
Actual
4th 0 1961 - 4th 0 1962
1st Q 1961- 1st Q 1962
3rdO 1962- 4th 0 1962
Anticipated
2nd 0 1962 - 2nd Q 1963
1st 01962 -1st 01963
IstO 1963- 2ndQ 1963
increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1962
1963
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
21.1*
19.0
35-7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
14.3
57-1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9
8
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
1*0.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
54.8
95-2
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
1+5.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59-5
57.1
59-5
73.8
57*1
57.1
57-1
28.6
33-3
90.5
76.2
8l.O
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6
11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
33.3
71.4
7.1
71.4
57.1
19-0
61.9
95-2
85.7
76.2
23.8
19.0
35.7
33.3
42.9
26.2
r52.4
71.4
57-1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
33-3
33.3
71.4
54.8
38.1
42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38.1
52.4
52.4
42.9
52.4
61.9
52.4
r47.6
r21.4
rSl.O
P45.2
52.4
P38-1
r57.1
r52.4
P47.6
52.4
P57.1
1 -month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 companies
b. 15 industries
4-quarter
interval
1-quarter
interval
1960
March.
April
May
July
August
October
56.7
44
33-3
40
23.3
40
66.7
48
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1 -month
interval
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
H
March
April.
May
July
August
September
December .......
1962
March
April
May
June
July
October
46.7
5^
53.3
58
70.0
64
56.7
52
66.7
54
26.7
52
80.0
(NA)
(NA)
27
31
37
•46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
48
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
^5
42
44
43
1963
January.
Mkrch.
April
May
June
46
46
45
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUS10N INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks1
(around 700
(80 industries)
corporations )
1-quarter
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
52
April
May
40
July
45
October
47
December.
1961
47
February
March
April
60
ffey
June
July
58
October
56
December
1962
January
54
April
May
47
July
48
September
October.
56
December
1963 '
January
February
March
April
May
June
3 -month
interval
Revised2
83.3
26.2
40.5
14.9
29.8
38.3
19.1
34-0
21.3
45.7
36.2
46.8
28.5
11 .2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15-3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
1 -month
interval
Revised2
34.0
54-8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45-7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54-9
55-5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65-4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
5L1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
23.4
46.8
68.1
61.7
66.0
53.2
61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
72.3
40.4
26.2
74-4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
98.8
84.8
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
72.6
90.2
98.8
73.1
34-6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
69.2
37.5
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
65.4
79.2
62.5
57.4
83.0
46.8
46.8
40.4
14.9
68.1
57.4
44.7
46.8
72.3
27.7
57.4
85.1
67.0
34.0
14-9
40.4
44.7
70.2
55.3
5L.1
46.8
27.7
97.6
79.3
43.8
97.6
93.8
58.3
66.7
46.2
3
57.7
50.0
58.3
3
58.3
36.2
87.2
47.9
55.3
66.0
1 -mo nth
interval
3 -month
interval
1 -mo nth
interval
3 -month
interval
1960
February
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week ended
nearest the 22nd
(47 areas)
1
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January I960; on 85 components, February I960 to November I960;
on 82 components, December I960 to February 1963; and on 80 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites,
representing
an additional 22 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6C).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
3
April 18, 1963.
Analytical Measures
38
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
Year and
month
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mfg. indus.)
1 -month
interval
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
75.0
43.8
41.7
68.8
66.7
66.7
41.7
20.8
20.8
16.7
12.5
20.8
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
47,9
79.2
54o2
62,5
2008
45.8
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45 o4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36 .9
32.5
46.7
45.8
52.1
66.7
83.3
77.1
91.7
79.2
83.3
45.8
72.9
83.3
56.3
37.5
62.5
81.3
83.3
87.5
83.3
100.0
79.2
79.2
75.0
87.5
45.8
58o3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43 08
79.2
41.7
68.8
33o3
79.2
66.7
45.8
35.4
72.9
43.8
58o3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35o4
75.0
7008
89 »6
7008
60 oO
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68 o3
55.0
25.0
25.0
16.7
26.7
r28.3
20.8
79.2
72.9
62.5
75.0
60.4
68.8
54.2
64.6
27.1
54.2
33.3
41.7
66.7
87.5
79.2
66.7
79.2
62.5
72.9
37.5
47.9
r39.6
r50.0
62.5
60.4
62.5
60.4
39.6
20.8
83.3
56.2
50.0
29.2
85.4
52.1
60 o4
70.8
91.7
81.2
39.6
37.5
62.5
81 ,2
r46.7
p63.3
r58.3
r68.8
P81.2
r50.0
p75.0
r50.0
r66.7
P68.8
1-month
interval
3 -mo nth
interval
1 -month
interval
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50 oO
30.0
35.0
30.0
21o7
30 oO
20.0
11.7
80.0
81 o7
66C7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
70.8
20.8
58.3
39.6
75.0
54.2
39.6
45.8
25.0
33.3
27.1
20.8
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3
11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83o3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
33.3
81.7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48,3
3 -month
interval
1960
March
April
M9LV
July
September
October
December.
a.7
45.8
45.8
43 08
41.7
1961
February
March
April
Nfay
.
July
August .........
October
Df»o.p'irihp»Tv T T
T
1962
January
February
tfereh
April
May
July
August. ........
September
October
November
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
40.0
30.0
48.3
28.3
41.7
r30.0
r65.0
p90.0
a.7
70.8
68.8
r87.5
r58.3
p79.2
38.6
a»3
54.6
59 o7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
55.9
a.2
a.2
53.3
66.8
41.3
63.3
48.8
68.6
47.6
33.0
28.2
38.5
36.9
43.4
38.1
38.6
r39.1
p54.6
Analytical Measures
39
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Year and
month
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4-quarter
interval
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight carload ings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Actual
Antici- Change in
pated total (000)
D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Actual
Anticipated
75.0
84.4
71 o9
71.9
56.2
71.9
34-4
43.8
28.1
37o5
46.9
53 .1
56.2
62.5
59.4
65 06
65.6
62.5
68.8
68.8
65.6
65.6
46.9
68.8
(NA)
50.0
1960
March
April
May
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
53
74
51
68
3106
7809
-103
50
70
50
68
21.1
50.0
-279
60
68
62
68
26.3
42.1
-212
-H?6
July
1961
72
82
March
April
May
72
78
36.8
89.5
-28
74
83
73
78
68.4
73.7
479
July
August.
82
88
82
86
87.5
89.5
+125
October
November
81
86
78
82
(NA)
89.5
-*&
February
March. .
April
80
88
76
84
94.7
-67
tfey
76
80
74
74
89.5
-96
(NO
74
(NA)
70
68.4
r-66
1962
July..
October
82
76
1963
March
April
Mav
71.9
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT
A.—(D1) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
3-month spans
M
<
A
i,
CX tf
<3 S
PH
V)
i
3
>-3
-P
f>
O
O
&,
<-$
±
P
'-a
1962
§ r ( a D? -o Hd ? P- Hi > C, cd ! ^r j; jp b pD cc pa lo - op >j op
i-3{x«s-=3.Sh~5|-3<<cno52;<:3
I T
I
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
- P > O f l X > ^ ^ > s i r H t i D a l
O O C D c d C D c d P H ^ P ^ ^ < D
c
7
t^1:f7^1c?c?1;11
- p > o a X > ^ i ^ > > d H t > 0 ! : ^
$ n ^ ? f a
J
C
D
^
C
)
^ ^ a ^ t > f l a
X
i
j
p
p
J
^
C
D
- p > o
1
O
O
C
P
a
aJ
>-3
-P1
JO
i,
o o ^ c d C D ^ a ^ 3 p 3 C Do
2 0)
<! c/3 O ^ Q ' - a C ^ S ^ S ' - a ^ ^ c o O S Q ^ P ^ S ^ S ^ ^ ^ C O O
XJ
CD
fo
?-.
a}
S
>I o1
o s>
S Q
^
C^
<IJ
^1
oj
1-3
Mar-Jun
i—J
>-3
1963
1961
Feb-May
1960
21 industry components
69 17 14 24 10 2 14 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81 21 19 62 95 86 76 24 19 36 33 43 26 52 52 38
4-
-
-
-
4-
O +
-
4-
o
-
-
-
+
-
o
o
o
-
44-
-«-
+
4-
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Furniture and fixtures .
Primary metal products
.
.
-
...
.
.
+
+
O
O
-
+
+
+
4-4-
--
+
+
0
0
-
+
-
+
0 +
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
-
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
....
o
+
+
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - -
4-
-
-
4-
4-
-
Instruments and related products
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 0 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 0
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + 0 + + 4 - 4 - 4 -
-
0
+
-
4 - 0 0
_ 4-
-
-
+
+
+
0-
4 - 4 - -
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - -
-
o + +
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 0 - + -
4-
0
o
-
•»•
-
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
4-
-
-
-
- _
o
-
-
-
- -
+
+
-»-
0
0
+
-
- - - 4 - O 4 - O 0 + 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -
. ..
••
• «
_
-
o
_
+
0
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+
+
- - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - + - - 0 +
- 0 4 - 4 - 0 4 - 4 4 - _ 4 - 4 - 4 -
Chemicals and allied products
Rubber products
Leather and leather products •
- 0 4 - + 4 - - 0 + - 0
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 _ o
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - o - - O
+
--
+
+
+
_
-
_
+
+
0
^*
r*
O
O
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
-
j>
0 + 0
O O 44- "*" -
0
-
0 0
o
-
4-
+
-
-t-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
s
o
V)
c
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.~(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
3-month spans
1961
1960
21 industry components
r-j
tO
PH
-P
J:>
ii
0,
<3
i» i rH
Jd
S
3
P
»-a
»-a
0
I a
e. i
3 ®
3 3 Q) O C
^ < CO 0 2
r
<=U
CO
1
f-i
1962
1963
^
{> » £ H t » o p H - p > o 3 x > ^ ^ < t > » J 3 r H t > o a
- p > o £ ! ' £ > k f - i > » c 3
^
<O o j & ( >C d Ph P ^ < i > u o 0 a J ( D a } C u ^ 3 p P ^ < i ) t ) o j p a j a ) t i
{3H S < ^ S
- 3
- 3 < j : c o O ! z ; P ^ p M S < < S ^ ^ < « 3 c o o j 2 ; « ^ & H S
3 :M f sL ^i ii ^^ si ^^ s^ ^i ^^ fi iA^ i^ ^i li ^i ^^ si js ts l^ oi Sa ^f it ^i ^i ii .i li
§ 1
>
o
£
D
5
0)
Q
OJ
HJ
£ &
(
29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 62 38 52 52 43 52 62 52 48 52 57
Iron and steel. ...
..
Primary nonf errous metals
. .
•
..
-
4-
-
4-
- -
Electrical generator apparatus*
-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
"
--
0
Motor vehicles
44-
4-
-4-
-W
44-
4444-
1h
_
Hh
H1
HH
- 4 .
+
4 - -
4-4+ _ 4 - - 4-4--I4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 -
4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - -
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _ - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 4 - - J - — 4 - 4 -*--4-»a.
_ _ 4 + - 4 - 4 - -
-1
-
Aircraft
- + + + - _
- 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
^ + +
- 4 - 4 -- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4 -
-
Office machines*
Household appliances
ric e me
pr u s
_
44-
_
44-
_
4-
4-
-r
-
44-
-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
444+
4-
4444-
4444444-
4- — +
—
_ 4 - 4 - 4 - _
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4
- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - - 4
- + + + + + _ + - - _
- 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4
- 4 - 4 _ _
4 - - 4 -
- - - . 4 - - 4 - 4
_ + _
4 - - - 4
- 4 - - 4
^.
4 - 4
+
- - -
4
_
4
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ - - -
- 4
- 4- - - 4 - 4 - 4
-- 4 - 4 - 4 - 0
4- 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 44
4 - 4 - - - 4 4- 4- 4 - - I - 4 - - -
- - - 4 - 4 - 4
+ - - - - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - - - - _ 4 - 4 4 - 4 - _ 4 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4
- 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 4 - 4 - - - - - 4
4 - - 4 - 4 - - - 4
4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - - - _ 4 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - -
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
4-4-
+
_ _ 4 4 - - _
_ _ _
- 4 - 4 - _ 4 4 - - 4 -
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted -by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable goods industries not available separately.
r*
^
n'
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3-month spans
1961
1960
24 industry components1
3 ? &c 11 I 1 S
7^ 11
P* g iCO
3! :§ 4 f J3 <* fr
51 64 39 36 42 76
+ 4- — — — +
500 stock prices
Mining? and smelting. . * » . « • • « . . . . . .
Coal bituminous . .
Food composite
Tobacco ( cigarette manufacturing)
Textile weavers
0
'<D
^ fa
Ol
QH
nil
O
0
Q/
O
0)
S3 Q
OT
^
QA QA Q«;
1962
1963
> , d H b o p < - p > o r t - £ h f c > » f l H M a - p > o f l x > k f - t > » d
&3ZZ£8£a3££3-&333£8£a2&£%£3
JQ .J i^ iJ iC . ^ i j JS jP ip . ^i o. oJ o. j i a i J i oJJ .Ci Di Js sl f . t li .J lp jp iS . ^i o. o^j ip ia AJ cJ D. jAd
feS<SHah,<4cOOKQ^pi<Z;*aJS5t-aH3<5cnOS2;QH3t»<3E!
Q/ 71 ^7 *i# ^*^ *iA AP 7^ ^9 /n ^rt ^^
n
i
i ft £/7 *5i 7*5 Qr> QQ oft Q/
...
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 _
4.
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4"
—
— 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
n
4 - 4 - 4 " 4 - 4 - 4 -
Drugs
Oil composite
4—
44-
_
Steel
Metal fabricating. ..
O
4-
-
4-
4-
4 - 4 " 4 - 4 - 4 "
- 4 - 4 _
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 " 4 " —
4 - 4 - 4 - + 4 - +
4 " 4 - 4 " 4 - 4 "
4 - + 4 - J . 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
.
f
44-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
4-
4-4-
4-
4-
4- a.
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
Automobiles
.
....... .
...
-
4-
+ -h
44-
4"
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-4-44 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4"4"
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 " 4 - 4 " 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
—
— 4 " 4 " 4 - 4 - 4
>
4 -
4-_i_
Electric companies
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
-
4-
-t- a.
4.
4-4-4-
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
Series components are not seasonally adjusted. NA Not available.
^•The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 85 industries, July 1960 to November 1960, on 82 industries December to February 1963; and on 80 industries thereafter.
D
+
^
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.-(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
3-month spans
1961 .
1960
13 industrial materials components
r-jp 3t»o (o
a -Po o> a>o §
*-3
< U)
O
tt
<-l
ICm t3d iP A
i,
A.
p
3 0)
<«J
»~3
t-3
«3j CO
Lead scrap ( Ib . )
. Q f c h > » d H M Q « . - P > 0
< D o d a , j d p p ? J a ) o o 6
{ i < gi < j 3 S ' - 3 » - 3 < ^ c o o a «
^ A i ^ A A ^ ^ ^ i
O ^ Q t - a p ^ S ^ S ^ ^ - ^ C O
a J O ) d d i
1
1
1
1
(
q } p ^ ^ Q ) O (
1
1
1
1
1
1
>
o
i a3
. A.
- P > 0 f l 4 - l ^ l h > » d r - j t
0 0 0 ) 0 5 0 ) ^ 0 , ^ 3 ^ ^
O S « | - 3 p M S « 3 S 2 5 | - 3 | - 3 <
2 <S
ccJ
0
O
0) aJ CU
(X4 S <«
i i A
o
® oj
!3 Q "-3
jd
P
S *~3
4 A
0) al
Cn S
o
o -
-
-
-
- -
O
0
0
0
-
-
+
+
+
O
O
O
O
O
-
-
...
Zinc (Ib. )
Burlap (yd . )
0
Print cloth ( yd . ) , average
Wool tops (ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin ( 100 Ib . ) . . r
Rubber (ib.)
Tallow (Ib . )
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
1
Data for April 18, 1963.
3
46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42 50 42 42 23 23 42 65 79 62 50 58 58
Percent r is ing
Tin (Ib .)....
S
H
1963
1962
-
-
-
-
-
-
O
O
O
+
O
O O
O
+
O
+
O
+
O
+
O O
+
+
0
+
+
- - _ '
-
+
+
0
+
+
+
- H - - - -
+
+
+
-
+
O O - - O
O
O
O
-
-
O
C)
-
4- NA
-
-
-
-
_
_
+
4
-
+ + + "+ + I
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
o o
O
_
_
O
O
. . + + + .
Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
_
O
O
_
O
O
O
O
O
-
O
o o o o
NA - NA NA.
+ + + +
+ .+ + +
+
-
-
-
o o
- - ++
^>
c^
NA Not available.
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.—(D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
3-month spans
Percent r i s ing
47 labor market areas ^
3
1-3
P
t-3
1
bO
1ft
2 <D
<; CO
ccJ a> d ft^al 3 3 2 <D o o a>
H a f o g ^ g i - s ^ ^ c o o S M
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
- P >
o f l - O ^ - t J - i ^ f l r H b O f t
O O O > a 5 ( U a } f t a } 3 : = J 3 < D
O S M H a p u S ^ g ^ ^ - ^ C O
o
^
>»
1
1
SH
^J
^
P«4
cd
0)
1
1
M^tr
1
H
0)
«
>
0
I a
f1
38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62 66 53 62 68 62 81 87 72 40 57 85 67 34 15 40 45 70 55 51 47
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
444-
444-
-
4-
44-
4-
444-
444 4-
44 - 4 - 4-
44444-
444-
4_
4-
44-
4 - 4 - 4 -
-
4-
-
§
f-.
1-3
JO
<D
Pn
^
ol
S
<t!
O
O
O
^
0)
(-1
«J
*-*
ft
Mar-Jun
ft jj
<tj S
1
fi
o
£5
A,-,rr
1
>»
CD o
CO 0
Jun-Sep
1
JH
3
<J
Jul-Oct
^-3
Apr-Jul
•s3
!$
w
Mar-Jun
26 area components
h N
O -H
Nov-Feb
1960
19631
19621
1961
Oct-Jan
<L> ^
IH 03
Feb-May
-p
28 55 66
- 4 - 4 -
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11
1
21
4
8
23
4 - 4 - 4 -
Buffalo*
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - _ 4 - 4 - 4 _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 " _ 4 - 4 - 4 -
New York
Paterson
Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh**
_ +
- 4_ _ _
_
-
_
4-
-
4-
+ -
-
4-
4-
_
4-
_
4-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
-
44444-
4-
_
4 - 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
- 4 - 4
4-
-
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
10
26
5
25
22
15
13
9
_
_
Cincinnat i
Cleveland
_
_
_
4-
_
_
0
_
_
_
_
-
4-
_
_
4-
4-
_
4-
_
4-
Detroit**
4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _
- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 -
St . Louis
4-
44-
4-
-
4_
44-
44-
_
- 44 - 4 - 4 -
_ 4 - 4 -
s
o
4-
en
-
4-
-
4-
44-
4-
44-
-
44-
4-
44-
44-
4-
-
_
_
44-
44-
44-
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
4-
44-
4-
44-
-
-
4444-
- 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 _ - 4-
444- 4- 4 - 4 -
SOUTH REGION
.
Houston
.
-'_ _
_ _
_ -
+ 4- _ _
4- _
+ - + +
4- _
- 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 -
_
+
WEST REGION
2
24 Por 1 1 and
6 San Francisco.
19 Seattle
- - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - _ 4 - 4 - 4 -
.
.
_
_
_
+
_
_
4-
4-
4-
4-
_
4-
-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
44-
44-
_
-
_
_
4-
- •= rising; o = unchanged; 4- = falling.
Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in March 1963 as designated by BES.
**Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment ±n March 1963 as designated by BES.
1
See "New Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
2
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
H—*
f-fr
^
I—"
n
_ 4 - 4 -
Kansas City
Mi Iwauke e
20 Atlanta . . . . .
12
17 Dallas
P
Table 6.--DIREGTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
F.—(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
1-month spans
£>
O
!i
oj
0
-
-
+
+
0
4-
o + o o o
4-
4-
„
4-
44-
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
0
-
4-
-
4-
4-
Transportation equipment
44-
O
Food and kindred products
+ - +
44-
-
-
0
Textile mill products
44-
-
4-
4-
-
0 0 -
O
-
-
0
-
-
+
0
0
4-
o -
4444444-
0
44-
4-
444444444-
Retail trade
Service
State and local government
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
444-
0
»-H
4-
0
i-
o
"1-
4-
4- 4+
4-4-4-
O
- 4-4-4-
4444-
o
0
44-
0
O
4-
4-
o
44-
44-
0
0
4444-
44-
4-
o
444-
0
44-
0
44-
4444-
44-
O
44-
444444-
4-
444-
o
4-
44-
O
44-
44-
4-
O
0
1
1
1-3
1
1
O
444-
4444-
4-
4-
-
4-
O
444-
0
444-
4-
4-
0
44444-
0
444444-
444-
4-
0
4444-
0
4-
*I
I CO0)
1
0
(D
CO
44-
444444-
0
O
44-
444-
444-
0
4-
4-
4-
O
4444-
o
4-
4-
4-
44-
4-
4-
0
0
0
0
4-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
444-
4444-
4-
o
o
0
44-
4444-
0
44-
0
0
44-
0
4-
4-
444-
44-
o
0
4-
4-
0
4-
444-
44-
0
4-
+
o
0
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
0
4444-
4-
4-
4-
0
4444-
4444-
4-
O
4-
44-
0
4444-
4-
O
44-
4-
44-
0
4-
4-
4-
444-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
444-
4-
0
44444-
4-
4
44444444-
4-
4-
4-
I
1 co0)
o
a
Oct-No\
-P
0
o
Feb-Mar
PH
(D
I 0)
Dec- Jan
i* <|
1
CO 0 525 a
t-t
Jan-Feb
ft
<D
Oct-Nov
1
o
Jun-Jul
o
<P
Feb-Mar
Anr,
>
O
<? 1 <?
1963
1962
1961
a
oj
i-i
(D Oj DL, erf p
(x, S <t S »~j)
o
35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 70 63 48 40 30 48 28 42 30 65 90
Percent rising
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and f ixtures
Stone clay and glass products
-P
IP & 0
tf CO
1
T,,l
30 industry components
Jun-Jul
1960
o
4-
0
44-
4-
4-
0
444-
444-
0
4-
0
4-
0
44-
44-
44-
444-
444-
4-
O
0
-
0
+
+
4-
0
-
0
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
4-
-
0
+
+
+
0
0
-
+
0
+
+
-
4-
+
-
+
_
4+
+
4+
-
+
-
0
4-
+
+
-
+
+
0
44-
4-
O
O
0
+
44-
4-
-
4-
O
444-
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
O
- 4 - 4 +
4-4+
4-4+
4-4-
444-
+
+ 0
- 44-4-4-
4444-
44-
4-
0
4-
4-
>
4-
0
4-
0
-
444-
4444-
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
JO
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT..Continued
ON
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1-month spans
1961
1960
Mai
24- industry components
0)
CQ
1
Percent ris ing!
All industrial production
DURABLE GOODS
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical.....
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products.
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
NONDURABLE GOODS
Textile, apparel, and leather....
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber.
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products...
Foods, beverages, and tobacco....
Food and beverages
Tobacco products
MINERALS
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas.
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals..
1963
1962
40 46 25 33 27 21 46 52 67 83 77 92 79 83 46 73 83 56 21 79 73 62 75 60 69 54 65 27 54 33
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - +
-
58 69 81
- 4 - 4 -
4-4-44-4-4-
4- 4- - - - _ 4- - - 4- _ 4- 4- 4- - 0
-
-
+
- -
_
_
4_
_
_
_
4-
-
-
4-
44+
_
4-
444o
444+
444+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - - - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 0
4- 4- 4- 4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _ 4 - - - +
4-0 + + - + - - 4 - - 4 -
+
+
+
-
44-
o
4-
-
+
4-
4-
- _ 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - _
-
4-
4-
-
44-
- + NA
+
-
- +
- 4C/J
C
4-44-
4-
-
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ 4 -
4- 4-
- 4-
-
4-
-
-
+ - NA
+ + NA
- NA NA
- 4 - 4 -
+
+
o -
44-
4-
4-
44-
4-
NA NA NA
4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - + - - + -
-
- 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _
+ + NA
+ - NA
- NA NA
4+
+
.. 4-4-
- + o + - +
- - 4- - 4- -
- 4 - 4 - - 4 - 0
4 - 4 4- - 4 - 4
- 4-
4 4- 4
-
4 4- 4
-
Q
-
+
- 4 - - 4 - 4 -
- 4- NA
+ NA NA
4- 4- - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -
+ + NA
4- - NA
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
NA = Not available.
^The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.-(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
3-month spans
1960
24 retail store components
Percent rising
All retail sales
1961
tX)
3
<U
CX -P
Q)
O
CO 0
>
O
£3
0
0)
«
C ! r £ 3 ^ ^ f > » 3 r - H b D f t - P > 0
c d ( D a J P H C d : j ; j p < D O O < p
21 46 42 46 46 44 42 35 73 44 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 71 92 81 40 38 62 81 42 71 69
88 58 79
. . .
+
Other food stores
..
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.
+
+
+
o
4-
-
+
.. ...
Department stores ....... .. ...... .
V&riety stores. .
1963
1962
P l X l f H ^ | > > g r H t l D P u - P > 0 fl ,Q fn ^ >> d
c d o j ^ f t j d p ^ n a j o o a )
h
F
:
t
t
<
: I
n - a p M S - ^ S ^ ' - a ' ^ C O O S W ^ £ £ 5* * 1
7
T
!
l
f
?
7
1
?
?
1
f
{k t>»J £i rHl bOl 1ft - P > o s 3 X > * - i f H | > » j : j i H b o a < - 1 p > I o $ 1 r j 1A J 1^ i 1f H 1K > 1> d 1 r H 1 t i 1O f 1t J> i i i J> A
ft Jd P 3 3 0) o o ^ o J < D a i P H j d 3 ^ ^ a > o o c u| c d c D< ^ a| . . ^ :? ^ ^ ® o o <p cd CD i}
<J S *-a ^ <jj cQ O s a H 3 p t , S < l J S t - 3 H 3 < t 5 c o o s ( - 5 - 3 [ i H s ^ s - 3 ^ < » 5 c / a 0
55 Q ^ (Z4 55
r-j
P
•-a
_
+
o
+
-
!:!++;!;ti-t
+
. .
„ _
Shoe stores
+
-+-
+
+ +
+ O
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
. + +
+
_
^<
rt
+ 0
+ + +
O
+ + - + - +
Appliance and radio stores
Building material dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Motor vehicle dealers
+
+
-f
0
+
-
+
o-l-
+
+
o
+
+
+
Gasoline stations
Drug and proprietary stores
+
Other durable goods stores
Other nondurable goods stores
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+ -
-
o -
+ + + + + + - + + + + +
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
C/5
48
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
rnrT iiMi iMii
r
PERIOD COVERED
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 • Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
» May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
i
Index
-<- Reference trough dates
I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and Indus.
bldgs. 2
Reference trough dates
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg. j
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
»'
II
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus.
J 90
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
30
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at M100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
CHART 4
49
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I I M I I I I M I I I I M I! I I I I I
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
Reference trough dates
I I I M I I I I I II IITTTI HI M I I M i l
Reference trough dates
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
23. Industrial materials
prices
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
-» 70
SQL-
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
•6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous
shown in table 7.
expansions are
50
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle,
PERIOD COVERED
I I I I I | I I I II | I M I I M I I I I | I I
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
> May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Reference trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
Index
105 r
41. Employees in nonagri
establishments
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
M I I I M I I M M I II M I I III I , Index
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
Reference trough dates
I I I I M I M I I I I I I I I II M M I I M M
-<- Reference trough dates
120r
51. Bank debits outside NYC
100*
100*
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I I I l I I I I I I I | I I II I I I I I
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 • present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
-<- Reference trough dates
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
Index
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
64. Mfrs.' inventories,
all mfg. industries
90L
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I Il
•12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from reference troughs
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
Last two quarters anticipated.
53
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Corv.
CHART 5
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
TT I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of-
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
Indus, bldgs.3
1958
1949
1954
Index
-<- Specific trough date*
1961
I I I 1 1 I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I 11 I I I IMi I
Index
-<- Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg.
105
i
- 120
100*
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
permits
jl
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus.
200 r
120 100*
MOO
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
* Spec! fie trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in
table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
54
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
TTl IT [ M IT I j l I I II I I I
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of-
-<- Specific trough dates
Index
1949
1954
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I i I I I I M II
Index
•<- Specific trough dates
150
140
13. New business '
incorporations
/
\/v
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
110
130
105
120
110
100*
MOO
200
200
180
180
23. Industrial materials
prices
160
160
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
/*•"
T40
140
120
120
100*
*100
I I I I I I I i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Ij
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
* Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C«
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
T
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1958
1961
1949
1954
Index
115
Index
- Specific trough dates
[ I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I
-<- Specific trough dates
280
260
240
220
200
180
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted ]
41. Employees in
establishments
110
160
140
120
100*
105
-1120
54. Sales of retail stores
- 105
105 -
100*
MOO
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
* Spec! fie trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100*. For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
l$ee appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
56
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Coit.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
I I [ I I I I I i MI i I I I I I I I I I I I MII
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of-
Index
-<- Specific trough dates
130
1958
1961
1949
1954
125
11 I 11 I I I 11 I I I i I I I I I 11
Index
135
120
•<- Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
130
115
110
125
49. GNP in current dollars
120
105
115
100*
110
105
*100
150
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg., and construction
140
130r
125
130
52. Personal income
120
120
115
110
110
105
100*
MOO
I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I II
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
I II II III I III i I I MI I I I I I I I II II
+30
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100".
MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
ASee appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
^or the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table /.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more
(series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month
is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter.
See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
25
24
24
NA
80.8
20.6
96.2
39.6
32.8
95.9
54.1
47.5
25
25
150.8
H3.5
117.6
135.5
24
32.7
25
25
21
25
25
25
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
73.2
46.3
48.1
95.0
110.0
72.6
101.5
104.9
107.8
99.5
82.2
87.5
100.5
100.9
86.4
100.5
100.9
129.6
79.0
50.8
48.3
31.1
142.6
170.3
156.4
120.2
117.2
97.1
111.7
115.0
118.5
114-7
112.4
113.4
17.2
101.5
101.1
129.2
106.6
119.1
78.9
21.6
104.0
NA
91.7
58.4
94.6
146.3
96.2
NA
151.3
85.7
98.8
66.0
128.3
NA
164.4
89.7
67.2
270.0
8.8
NA
30.0
165.3
82.8
87.9
115.1
NA
61.5
86.9
99.5 134.5
79.6
139.7
87.6 120.9
102.7 101.7
148.5 192.8
110.0 114.4
130.0 100.7
96.8
63.6
110.2 116.2
101.7 101.2
113.8 118.9
90.7
100.3
25
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
169.2
134.3
120.4 110.6
25
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
m
25
25
25
24
21
25
25
25
90.0
NA
109.1
NA
M
92.2
NA
112.9
96.2
NA
106.1
112.1
111.0
117.1
113.3
107.8
99.9
m
101.9
111.0
115.2
112.0
110.4
102.7
83.0
NA
72.1
64.3
79.6
53.6
68.3
73.0
100.1
78.9
101.5
106.1
NA
98.0
102.4
105.3
106.5
105.7
118.3
127.2
116.5
130.2
123.3
116.3
25
65.4
93.5
90.5
85.0
96.1
21
27
63.8
54.5
106.7
108.1
118.6
104.3
34.9
40.6
25
24
24
80.0
91.5
NA
NA
93.9
NA
NA
24
91.7
91.1
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
14.
16.
17.
19.
23.
24.
Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv. ).
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).
Price per unit of labor cost index...
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
Index of industrial materials prices
Value of manuf aclrurers ' new orders, machin-
29. Index of new private housing units author-
109.1
122.2
104.1
66.5
107.8
114.2
106.9
121.4
116.4
111.8
102.8
80.5
107.5
112.6
107.3
117.3
113.0
108.7
102.5
92.7
109.6
113.3
108.0
120.6
112.7
111.4
108.5
106.7
101.6
99.3
87.5
105.1
119.0
121.6
122.7
129.8
93.1
95.1
104.5
106.5
86.7
74.1
66.3
96.2
102.4
127.1
106.7
133.4
169.7
104.5
110.8
139.4
100.2
101.1
123.9
97.6
104.9
119.1
62.9
88.2
123.9
116.6
110.8
93.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars(Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
52 . Personal income
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING
INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
a
b
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
66 . Consumer ins tallment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)
NA
NA
120.0
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 21 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 27 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1963).
Cyclical Patterns
58
Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER TH£ REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with
64, and 66),
(series 2, 3,
month is used
quarter. See
a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62,
the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more
6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough
as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Months
after
reference
trough1
Selected series
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
-1.4
+14.0
+51.9
+8.9
+2.3
+22.2 +18.1
+46.4 +60.8
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
+2.0
+13.2
+35.4
+3.9
+2.5
+8.8
-7.3
+42.4 +50.0
+26.1
-18.7
+30.5 +28.7
+20.0 +27.8
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
25
24
24
NA
NA
NA
+5.3
+84.6
+5.8
-2.3
-26.0
-33.0
25
25
+113.6
+46.6
+5.0
+46.1
-20.9 KL51.7 +137.3
-51.1 +106.0 +81.3
24
+20.1
+61.9
+30.7 +43.7 +105.7 +17.2
25
25
21
25
25
25
+9.1 +27.8
+28.2 +62.3
+78.6
NA
NA
+24.0 +45.3
+39.4 +2.1
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.).
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
m
-4.9
-28.3
+74.4
NA
+25.4
-8.0
+69.2
-16.5
-3.8
-15.2
-4.9
+227.1 +19.4 +19.1
NA +281.2 +12.0
NA
NA
+3.2
-2.2 +42.9
+45.1
+66.2 +29.6 +46.4
+33.4 +35.6 +27.9
+13.9
-16.4
+41.9
+2.9
+52.4
+H.4
+36.2 +8.4
-1.0
-15.5
+45.6 +34.5
+7.2
+2.8
+30.4 +5.6
-4.9
+15.4
+92.4 +40.7
+43.6 +15.1
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin25
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
25
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
25
25
25
24
21
25
25
25
+30.5
NA
+60.0
NA
+25.2
+19.0
+29.5
+18.0
+10.8
+4.1
NA
NA
+30.0 +10.2
+14.7 +10.5
+11.3 +12.6
+3.0
+20.9
+7.8
+13.8
+2.7
+9.9
+21.3
+44.5
+51.7
+27.5
+10.5
+40.5
+38.8
+29.3
25
+3.8
29. Index of new private housing units author-
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
+7.3
+26.1
+7.8
+50.6
+18.5
+16.3
+10.2
+19.5
+16.7
+12.7
+7.2
+42.9
+25.2
+15.5
+11.6
+21.0
+13.4
+12.5
+4.6
+25.8
+16.4
+14.2
+10.1
+17.8
+12.0
+15.7
+14.3
+7.5
+2.1
-0.6
+48.7
+51.9
+28.5
+35.8
+15.9
+18.4
+12.1
+14.2
NA
NA
+11.7 +12.2
+40.4 +115.6
+50. 0 +29.2
+20.5 +31.6
NA +18.2
+17.3 +35.6
+15.0 +28.9
+27.3 +16.7
INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
NBER LAGGING
+2.4
-2.7
+16.8
+1.5
INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total (Q):3
b
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
64. Manufacturers1 inventories
book* value
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)
21
27
+86.0 +52.8
+58.9 +54.9
+35.0 +103.4 +46.7
+18.8 +136.8 +76.1
25
24
24
-11.1
NA
NA
-11.0
NA
NA
-4.6
24
-14-9
+3.9
+24.7
NA
NA
+18.2
-7.3
+25.0
+8.1
+38.7 +36.3
+3.3
+11.9
+45.9 +17.5
+36.7 +34.9
-5.7
-3.9
+6.2
+7.6
+22.8 +15.6
-9.6
+23.4 +22.2
+28.3
-19.2
+0.6
NA Not available.
•'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 21 months after the February 1961 trough (actual
expenditures) and (b) the period 27 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 2nd quarter 1963).
59
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53),
the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9,
13, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
specific
trough1
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
13. Number of new business incorporations
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
24. Value of
ery and
29. Index of
ized by
manufacturers' new orders, machinequipment industries
new private housing units authorlocal building permits
99.0
27
NA
96.6
88.4
68.9
91.7
NSC
97.8
97.3
21
26
26
29
27
36.8
82.1
NA
92.8
57.1
101.7
93.1
NA
125.2
79.3
99.6
108.3
NA
NSC
49.5
14.9
67.0
NA
29.4
64.2
91.2
57.5
NA
58.7
81.8
50.4
61.1
101.6
135.0
102.7
NSC
NSC
91.0
169.7
61.5
91.1
137.7
99.3
113.2
89.1
29
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
144.2
99.8
98.1
109.9
27
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
70.8
95.2
25
22
26
24
21
27
25
26
90.0
NA
111.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
102.0
96.1
96.4
NA
101.9
NSC
NSC
110.9
NA
NSC
83.0
NA
60.7
64.3
78.7
68.4
61.1
70.4
99.6
68.6
101.5
101.0
102.3
102.9
97.8
104.7
106.5
113.4
117.1
122.8
112.3
122.0
124.5
NSC
104.1
58.8
105.8
112.5
106.9
114.6
112.5
110.0
102.8
74.7
106.9
111.9
104.9
112.7
108.3
108.7
3
121.9
93.9
98.8
109.9
89.1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in no nagri cultural
47. Index of industrial production
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores
NA
108.2
NSC
NSC
110.8
NA
NSC
102.2
88.7
107.8
113.3
108.0
3
111.9
106.5
111.9
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
+6.6
-7.6
-7.6
+9.6
+5.2
+2.0
+3.4
+4.7
27
+14.5
21
26
26
29
27
NSC +33.2 3+31.1
+77.8 +62.0 +28.9 +54.4 +100.9 +61.7
NSC +51.3
+9.8
+17.6 +24.5 +18.1
+3.3
+7.5 -28.0
+6.8
+7.2
+8.8
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+3.1
NSC +92.9
+7.5 +62.6 +90.9 +36.9 +22.2
+36.9 +47.1
+40.1
-2.5
+7.4 -30.7 +72.7 +32.2 +52.3 +17.8 +12.6
29
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+30.5 +10.8
NA
NA
+63.3 +32.5
NSC
NA
NA
NSC
+29.8 +15.0
NA
NA
NSC
+15.9
+1.7
NA
+10.2
NSC
NSC
+13.8
NA
NSC
+21.3
+45.9
+32.1
+27.5
+16.8
+39.1
+71.6
+24.6
+11.7
+25.0
+53.5
+20.5
+17.9
+17.7
+33.8
+27.4
+12.2
KL41.7
+30.0
+27.3
+15.1
+28.6
+42.4
NSC
+7.8
+38.5
+17.5
+15.6
+10.9
+16.0
+21.8
+13.8
+91.6
+67.2 +32.3
+18.0
29. Index of new private housing units author+14.7
+27.5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
25
22
26
24
21
27
25
26
+7.2
+4.6
+44.0 +27.2
+24.8 +16.6
+15.9
+14.2
+9.7
+10.1
3
+14.1
+12.4
+17.6
+12.2
+13.6
+16.2
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) and high (H) shown in table 1.
Appendixes
Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle
reference dates
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October i860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
xxx
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
IS
34
36
xxx
48
30
78
36
99
XXX
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894.
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914.
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913••.
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
2
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924.
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 194-5
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 194.5..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
_8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
.
19
15
40
54
50
52
101
2
3
54
46
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
1
4
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
6
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
61
Appendixes
62
Appendix B.--SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in—
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
July
1924
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, machinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
Dec. '60
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb. '21
NSC
Jun.'58
NSC
Aug. '49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mir. '21
Jan. '61
Jan.' 61
Oct. '60
Dec. '60
Nov. '57
Apr. '58
Dec. '57
Apr. '58
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Feb. '49
May '49
Jun.'49
Jun.'49
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 Jun.'24 Jan. '21
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Apr. '38 Jun.'32 NSC
Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Jun.'38 Jul.'32 Aug. '28 Jun.'24 Jul.'21
Oct. '60
Feb. '58 Jan. ' 54 Apr . ' 49NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Dec. '60
Feb. '58
NA
NA
NA
NA
Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
IstQ1 61
lstQ'61
NSC
Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 Mar. '33 Jan. '28 Jul.'24
Jul.'58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 May '33 NA.
NA
Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Oct . ' 49May '38 Jul.'32 Nov . ' 27Jul.'24
1
IstQ 58 2ndQ' 54 2ndQ' 49 2ndQ'38 IstQ' 33' NSC
NSC
IstQ' 58 2ndQ'54 2nd Q' 49 lstQ'38 3rdQ'32 NSC
NSC
Feb. '58 Mar. '54 Oct. '49 May '38 Mar. '33 4thQ'26 2nd Q' 24
Feb. '61
Jan. '61
Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 Mar. '33
Mar. '58 Jan. '54 NSC
May '38 Mar. '33
NA
NA
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul4-3. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction.
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
Mar. '22
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
my
1960
July
July
1957
1953
my
Nov.
1948
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
May '59
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
13. Number of new business incorpo-
Apr. '59
Nov. '55 Apr. '53
NSC
Mar. '56
Mar. '46 Jul.'37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Feb. '56 NSC
Feb. '51
Jan. '53
Feb. '51
Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Mar. '57
Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56
Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov . ' 59Dec. '55
Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries . .Dec. '59 Nov. '56
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov. '58 Feb. '55
17.
19.
23.
24.
NSC
Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25
Jul.'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25
Jan. '48 NA
NA
NA
Jun.'48 Feb . ' 37Sep. '29 NSC
Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25
Nov. '22
NA
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec. '19
NA
Jul.'19
Apr. '20
Feb. '51 Apr. '48 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'37 Aug. '29
Jan. '48 Jul.'37 NA
Jul.'48 May '37 Jul.'29
3rdQ' 57 2ndQ' 53 4thQ'48 3rdQ'37 3rd Q' 29
2ndQ' 60 3rdQ'57 2ndQ' 53 4thQ'48 3rdQ'37 3rd Q1 29
NSC
Aug. '57 Oct. '53 Oct. '48 Jun.'37 Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NSC
2nd Q' 26
NA
May '23
NSC
NSC
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
IstQ' 24 NA
May '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29
Apr. '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
NA
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q) . . . .
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2nd Q1 60
Mar. '57 my '53
Mar. '57 Jun.'53
Feb. '57 Jul.'53
Jul.'48
Jul.'23
53. Labor income in mining, manufac54. Sales of retail stores
NA
not available.
NSC
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
NA
Jul.'20
Appendixes
63
Appendix C--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
.47
6.03
30. Nonagri cultural placements, all industries.... 3.41
11.94
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
.40
5.31
3.14
10.46
.24
2.08
1.35
5.45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92
2
3
3
3
.95
.92
.55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4.58
4.53
5.16
19.43
17.91
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
1.47 12.82
3.56
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploy-
6.98
6.12
3.16
1.94
2
5.58
5.00
2.00
2.50
3
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery
6.07
5.55
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
12.37
6.37
11.94
5.94
2.75
2.19
4-34
2.71
5
3
.80
.79
1.62
1.59
1.49
1.37
8.28
8.56
3.45
3.55
7.56
4.09
7.12
3.39
2.36
2.01
3.02
1.69
4
3
.71
.67
1.82
2.29
1.69 10.14
1.67 11.46
5.23
4.46
3.90
3.04
3.44
2.57
1.67
1.30
2.06
1.98
3
3
.60
.65
1.93
2.19
1.53 12.43
1.69 9.31
3.70
3.50
16.32
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
(M
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
17.30 17.36
.72
.56
2.58 1.90
3.26
.41
1.49
5.33
1.37
1.28
6
2
2
C1)
.80
.79
1.54
2.70
2.40
1.39 6.21
1.80 11.53
1.73 13.55
2.82
4.10
3.36
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61 11.55
4.63
.77
.91
3.18
2.61
2.01 9.94
1.84 11.46
3.59
2.61
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment..
27. Buying policy — production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started....
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
1$ . Number of business failures with, liabilities
of $100 , 000 and over
19 Index of stock prices, $00 common stocks
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer.
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
23
Index of industrial materials prices
6.17
5.53
2.76
11.30
2.1$
8.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.39
.22
.29
.76
1
.76
3.41
2.04 10.44
3.41
• 41
4.73
5.80
.32
3-46
4.62
.22
2.91
3.26
1.45
1.19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
1.94
2.44
2.05
1.62 15.73
1.68 7.67
1.38 10.50
3.44
3-48
4.37
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3-47
3.28
2.10
2.26
.93
1
.93
2.30
1.40
8.13
2.30
1.16
1.56
.69
.66
1.42
.43
.81
.70
.54
.81
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.81
.58
.80
4.25
1.82
3.39
1.87 11.00
1.55 10.64
1.69 21.29
4.25
4.32
3.39
1.12
1.58
.69
1.43
.84
.56
.82
2.55
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80 13.55
1.67 8.77
3.63
3.56
.30
.11
.27
.41
1
• 41
5.22
2.53 12.85
5.22
.66
.46
.40
1.15
2
.66
2.70
1.77 11.53
4.65
.88
.27
.40
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16 13.55
7.84
.58
.25
1
1
6.48
8.79
2.61 13.55
2.29 18.56
6.48
8.79
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4.1. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
4.2. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force
40 Unemployment rate, married males
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
$1 Bank debits outside NYC, 34.3 centers
£j2 Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
output, total manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
manufacturing industries
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
66. Consumer installment debt
See footnotes at end of table.
.99
1.19
.49
.28
.84
1.12
.58
.25
Appendixes
64
Appendix C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR MONTHLY AND
QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
T/c
MCD
for Average duration of run
MCD
C
MCD
I
CI
span
CI
I
C
.28
7.17
7.49
.17
6.91
7.23
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18
1.39
1.52
19.89
7.59
5.96
4.48
2.30
2.55
3.72
3.39
3.02
87 . General imports , total
3.52
8.06
94-. Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35 24.41
15.57 15.00
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19 29.33
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
.64
2.08
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21
3
3
4
6
5
.69
.79
.96
(M
.99
1.89
1.71
1.6?
1.58
1.49
1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67
4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40
6.21
4.72
6
n
1.61
1.50
5.38
2.76
1.97
.32
1
.32
5.96
2.14
16.70
5.96
.68
.49
.52
.98
.65
.81
1.60
1.51
2.63
1.69
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
2
3
2
2
3
3
1
.82
.87
.98
.64
.80
.63
.72
2.91
2.41
3.44
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77
17.11
15.40
15.50
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57
5.28
6.91
6.13
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37
Monthly series
T/C
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to the public
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD European countries, index of indus . prod... 1.32
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
1.29
.98
125. West Germany, index of industrial production. . 1.61
126. France, index of industrial production
1.79
1.70
128. Japan, index of industrial production
2.09
1.03
1.29
.88
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15
T/c
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
T/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
manufacturing corporations
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.89
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
• 57
1
1
1
• 58
.43
• 57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
2.94
.51
1
.51
4. '64
1.55
5.67
4.64
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars
4-9* Gross national product in current dollars
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
1.44
1.88
1.60
.65
.69
.82
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip3.61
1.49
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
See footnotes on following page.
1.02
.60
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.96
1.94
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
6.27
1.26
5.79
.22
1
.22
4.38
1.94
5.83
4.38
Appendixes
65
NOTES FOR APPENDIX C
computed for series when MOD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961).
"CI" is the average month-to-month
(for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QCD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans* and for spans of the period of MCD.
When MCD is "6", no I/C
ratio is shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QGD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendixes
66
Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER
(MAY 1962 TO JUNE 1963)
1963
1962
Series
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff all industries
5. Av. weekly initial claims for
Aug. Sept. Oct.
May
June July
91.9
83.9 100.3 139.4
82.7 82.8 102.6 85.4
106.8 101.6 98.6 98.3
13. No. of new business incorp.1
14-. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures. 96.8 96.5 85.2 110.7
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 95.2 105.6 88.9 96.2
17. Price per unit of labor cost
index
100.1
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.2
106.0
30. Nonagri. placements, all Indus...108.9
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
100.0
62. Index of wage and salary cost
per unit of output, total mfg... 99.7
81.
82.
83.
90.
101.1
94.9
89.5
Nov. Dec.
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. my
83.4 102.6 121.0 116.2
92.2
83.8
77.6 90.7 104.8 132.5 140.7 109.1 97.3 94.3 82.7
83.9 101.3 86.8 94.3 120.0 91.0 104.2 106.8 106.7
92.7 97.3 99.9 89.9 105.1 105.2 107.5 112.3 96.7
82.6
96.8
96.4
89.3
88.6
88.5
96.0
82.2
88.6 111.3 113.6 116.8 110.4
99.5 101.4 103.3 100.5 98.2
98.8
97.4
110 !9 10X6 116.5 120.7 113 ".1 94.7
97.5
June
82.0
94.9 105.5
99.0 100.7 101.1 100.6 100.1 101.1
82 '.3
97.9
77.4
90.2
106.1
99.8 109.0 110.9
99.8
99.9
99.8
99,9 100.0 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.2 100.0
99.9
98.7 105.2 100.2
98.4
96.5
99.2 102.0 101.9
98.7
99.9
99.9
99.6
99.3
99.6
99.8
Index of consumer prices
99.8 99.9 100.0 99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.0 99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0 99.8 99.9
Federal cash payments to public..102.9 106.1 96.1 113.7 94.3 102.7 104.8 98.3 90.8 98.9 92.3 98.9 103.2 106.0
Federal cash receipts from pub...118.5 150.3 49.3 112.6 124.2 46.2 102.3 105.1 70.0 113.1 129.6 79.0 119.3 149.5
Defense Department obligations—
69.3 193.9 75.9 78.0 97.1 89.2 96.0 117.4 76.9 91.6 132.2 81.2 69.2 192.7
91. Defense Dept. oblig. total
85.2 150.0 98.2 92.2 100.5 96.6 90.9 103.2 89.2 88.0 110.8 94.0 85.4 149.7
92. Military prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms
92.7 217.4 67.9 72.4 92.2 89.8 72.9 108.5 89.5 79.7 125.3 93.2 92.8 216.4
128. Japan, index of industrial pro99.9 100.4 99.3 96.6 98.6 99.8 99.6 103.2 94.3 100.3 109.1 99.4 100.2 100.4
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
•'•Factors are a combination of seasonal and trading day factors.
2
Qiarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
Appendixes
67
Appendix E.-SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF X-9 AND X-10 VERSIONS OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM
Introduction
Two versions of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program have been used to compute the new seasonal
factors shown in appendix D. These versions, designated
X-9 and X-10 (Experimental Programs 9 and 10), replaced,
in February 1962, the method described in "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," NBER Occasional Paper No.
57, and the X-3 version described in "Tests and Revisions
of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,"
Census Technical Paper No. 5. (The X-3 program had been
used for about 2 years as the standard program prior to
February 1962.) The X-9 program incprporates several
changes from the original method and is recommended for
general use for a wide range of series. The X-10 program
incorporates the changes in X-9 plus a major departure
from earlier versions of Method II. This major change in
X-10 is the selection of the seasonal factor curve for
each month on the basis of an estimate of the size of the
irregular component for that month relative to the amount
of moving seasonality present in an estimate of the seasonal factor. The selection of curves available for each
month includes a 3-, 3x3-, 3x9-, and 3xl5-term moving average and a horizontal straight line. This is in contrast
to the original and X-9 methods of treating all months the
same, either with the use of a 3x3 or 3x5 moving average.
These programs are available for several different
electronic computers. Detailed specifications and additional information can be obtained by writing to the Office
of the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census,
Washington 25, D.C.
Description of the X-9 Program
The changes from the original program
are listed below:
Description of the X-1Q Program
The X-10 program includes the first four changes listed
above for the X-9. In addition, for each month, the curve
to measure the seasonal factor is selected on the basis of
an estimate of the size of the irregular component relative to the amount of change in the seasonal factor. This
estimate of the relative amount of irregular to changing
seasonality is designated the moving seasonality ratio.
Moving seasonality ratios are calculated as follows:
First, a 7-term moving average of the SI ratios is computed
for each month and taken as an estimate of the seasonal
factor; this 7-term moving average is divided into the SI
ratios and the resultant series is taken as an estimate of
the irregular series. Next, the average year-to-year percent change without regard to sign is computed in the 7term moving average and in the irregular series. Then, the
average change in the estimate of the irregular to the
average change in the estimate of the seasonal is calculated. This is the moving seasonality ratio. A moving
average is then chosen for each month on the basis of this
ratio as is shown in the table below. In constructing this
table, the parameters have been chosen to select a curve
which reduces the year-to-year percentage change in the
residual irregular remaining in the estimate of the seasonal to about one-half the year-to-year percentage change
in the seasonal.1
included in X-9
(1) In the original version of Method II described
in Occasional Paper No. 57 and X-3, "the six missing
SI ratios at the beginning of the series are supplied
by extending the first available ratios for the corresponding months back to the initial month of the
series. The six missing ratios at the end are supplied
similarly" (Occasional Paper No. 57, step 6d). In the
new programs the missing values are not supplied until
after the seasonal factors have been computed. They
are then supplied by extending (i.e., repeating) the
first available seasonal factor back to the initial
month and similarly for the last available factor at
the end of the series. The effect of this change is
to reduce the weight given the end SI ratios in the
computation of the preliminary seasonal factors.
(2) Extremes are replaced by averaging the two preceding and two following ratios, instead of averaging
the extreme with the preceding and following values.
This revision completely eliminates SI ratios defined
as extreme from the computations of the seasonal factors (included in X-3).
(3) The 5-term moving average, used in computing
the sigma control limits, is extended by repeating the
last moving-average value instead of repeating the
average of the last two ratios and taking the moving
average. This revision improves the prospects that
extreme values at the end of series will be identified
as such.
(4) The method of centering or forcing the seasonal
factors to add to 1200 for the calendar year has been
replaced with a moving centering device which makes
the seasonal factors add as closely as possible to
1200 for any 12-month period. The centering is done
after the computation of a 3- or 5-term moving average
for each month. Following the centering, a 3-term
moving average is applied to each month. In the original version and X-3, the ratios were centered before
moving averages were computed for each month.
(5) Less weight is given to the ratios for end
years in the computation of the seasonals. To extend
the 3x5 moving average, the end four ratios instead of
the end two are averaged to obtain additional SI ratios (included in X-3). To extend the 3x3 moving average, the end three ratios, instead of the end two,
are averaged to obtain additional SI ratios.
Moving seasonality ratio
0 to
1.50
2.50
4.50
6.50
8.50
1.4-9
to 2.49
to 4.49
to 6.49
to 8.49
and over
Average of SI ratios for
seasonal factor curve
3-term moving average
3x3-term moving average
3x5- term moving average
3x9- term moving average
3xl5-term moving average
All ratios (stable)
In the actual computations, the moving seasonality
ratio selects from 1-, 3-, 5-, 9-, 15-term moving average
and an average of all the ratios. After a selection is
made and the appropriate moving average is calculated, a
moving centering device is employed to make each 12-month
period add as close to 1200 as possible. Finally, further
smoothing of the data for each month is carried out by a
3-term moving average.
It has been possible thus far to conduct only a limited
amount of testing of the X-10 program and for this reason
especially careful review of such adjustments is required.
In some cases the original Method II or other approaches
will give similar or perhaps better results. The Bureau
of the Census is continuing research intended to improve
seasonal adjustment techniques and will provide new variants of the general method as is warranted from the evidence. The results of our experimental work will be reported in detail as soon as feasible.
1
The variable seasonal factor technique was developed
by Dr. Stephen N'. Marris, Head of the Statistics Division
of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and is described in Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic
Computers, pp. 257-309 (OECD, Paris, 1961. Copies can be
obtained from the regional office: Organisation for European Economic Cooperation, 1346 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.,
Washington, D.C., price $9.50.) The Bureau of the Census
and the OECD have cooperated in further theoretical and
empirical development of this technique since completion
of the OECD paper, and the X-10 program differs slightly
from that in the original description.
Appendixes
68
Appendix F.--PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
41. Employees
in n onagri, establishments
47 . Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP 51. Bank
in cur- debits
rent
outside
dollars NYC
1
(Q)
43. Unemployment rate
52. Per- 54- Retail
sonal
income
sales
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, peak
trough
peak to
trough
NA
NA
NA
-31.6-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1
+7.9
2+2.3
2+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
Feb. 1945-Oct. 194 54
Nov 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug 1954s
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9
NA
-1.S
-3.0
-3.8
-1.9
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6
+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.5
+2.2
+3.6
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.6
-6 .'5
-16.0
-2.6
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since
1948
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49 GNP 51. Bank
in cur- debits
rent
outside
dollars NYC
1
(Q)
2
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
4.0
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.6
6.0
7.4
7.0
+3.3
3.6
7.2
-3.4
+3.4
4.0
7.5
-2.1
+3.3
4.1
7.2
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak
2
4.0
2
2
Jan . 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933.
May 1937- June 1938
3
43. Unemployment rate
52. Per- 54. Retail
sonal
income
sales
Change
Rate at Rate at
in rate, trough
peak
trough
to peak
2
2
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929...
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 194 54
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3
2-8.7
2-3.6
2-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
Oct. 1949-July 1953s
Aug . 1954-July 1957
Apr 1958-May I960 . .
Median:6
+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.5
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.4
+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5
+0.3
-5.0
-1.8
-2.2
3.3 .
7.6
6.0
7.4
+17.4
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+20.8
-3.6
7.0
3.3
+13.0
+26.6
+12.5
+21.5
+24.4
+21.6
+16.5
-2.5
6.3
3.7
+13.0
+23.5
+12.7
+29.4
+39.0
+25.6
+23.4
-2.0
6.7
3.9
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.2
2
1.9
23
3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
Excluding wartime ex4 expansions since
1945
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
1(
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. *MW indicates monthly series and "Qw indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by *EOM" or aEOQw.
"EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4, Number of persons on temporary layoff, ail industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5o Average w e e k l y i n i t i a l c l a i m s for u n e m p l o y m e n t i n s u r a n c e .
State p r o g r a m s (M)»—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).—F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing
*12.
13.
*14.
15.
*16.
corporations (Q).—Nationa 1 Industrial C o n f e r e n c e Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted by National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain
seasonally adjusted total.
Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).-°Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output index) (M).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor-
*19.
20.
*21.
22.
*23.
porations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all
industries (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indus-
tries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office
Economics
of Business
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commit-
ments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy—capital expenditures, percent reporting commitments 6 months or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).-
Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wonted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements in manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).~Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, (EOM).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).—Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE TO AVOID
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. *3OO
(GPO)
WASHINGTON, D. C.
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
18 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
97.
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
98.
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
of
capital
appropriations,
manufacturing
(Q).--
National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted
total.
81. Index of consumer prices (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).--Treasury Department,
Backlog
Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand d e p o s i t s
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and'Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—Organiza-
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123.
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method* of seasonal adjustment
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).--Poard of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—Department
r <JfcCommerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of
Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development
126. France, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).-See series 47.
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).—De-
DIFFUSION INDEXES
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).~Department
o£,D.,efeasef--Fiscal*Anarl'ysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).—Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for
Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D33.
D34.
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (/^.--De-
partment of Defense, Directorate tor Statistical Services;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)
D35.
(M).~Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
D36.
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).~F. W. Dodge
Corporation
D48.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account ((^.--De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled
orders,
durable
goods industries
(EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
D58.
Profits, Chicago PAA (M).—Purchasing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
Net sales, total manufactures (Q).~Dun and Brad street, Inc., no
seasonal adjustment
New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Brad street, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no
seasonal adjustment
Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER