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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 10:00 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 1986 Pauline M. Cypert: (202) 523-0832 523-0810 Clinton P. McCully: 523-0836 523-0819 (Personal Income) (Personal Outlays) BEA 86-60 898-2452 Recorded message: PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: NOVEMBER 1986 Personal income increased $10.7 billion in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $3,531.0 billion, according to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. billion. Personal outlays increased $30.4 billion to $2,914.0 In October, personal income increased $12.4 billion and personal outlays decreased $57.5 billion, based on revised estimates. __________ 1986________ Sept. Oct♦ Nov. (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars.. 0.3 0.4 0.3 Disposable personal income: Current dollars................ Constant dollars............... .2 -.3 .2 .2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars................ Constant dollars............... Implicit price deflator........ 2.0 1.5 .5 -2.1 -2.3 .2 1.1 0 — — NOTE.— Monthly estimates are expressed, unless otherwise specified, at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Month-to-month dollar changes are differences between these rates; month-to-month percent changes are not annualized. Constant-dollar estimates are in 1982 dollars. more - 2 - The November and October increases in personal income were affected by two special factors — bonus payments in October to employees in the automobile industry, which lowered the November increase and raised the October increase, and decreases in subsidy payments to farmers, which lowered the increases in both months. Excluding the effect of these factors, personal income increased $19.1 billion, or 0.5 percent, in November and $9.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in October. Wages and salaries Wages and salaries increased $10.7 billion in November, compared with $14.5 billion in October. Commodity-producing industries' payrolls decreased $1.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $7.1 billion. Manufacturing payrolls decreased $2.7 billion in November, in contrast to an increase of $6.8 billion in October. The November decrease and most of the October increase were due to October bonus payments to employees in the automotile industry ($5.6 billion at an annual rate). Distributive industries' payrolls increased $3.9 billion, compared with $2.1 billion. Service industries' payrolls increased $6.4 billion, compared with $3.4 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $1.9 billion in both months. Nonwage income Farm proprietors' income decreased $2.4 billion in November, compared with a decrease of $2.8 billion in October. The November and October decreases were due to subsidy payments to farmers. Excluding subsidy payments, farm proprietors' income increased $0.4 billion in November and $0.3 billion in October. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $2.6 billion in November, compared with $1.4 billion in October. Personal interest income decreased $2.0 billion, compared with a decrease of $2.8 billion. Transfer payments increased $1.3 billion, compared with $1.7 billion. All other nonwage income increased $1.4 billion, compared with $1.2 billion. Personal taxes and disposable personal income Personal tax and nontax payments increased $5.9 billion in November, compared with $5.1 billion in October. Disposable personal income — personal income less personal tax and nontax payments -- increased $4.7 billion, compared with $7.4 billion. Personal outlays and personal saving Personal outlays — personal consumption expenditures (PCE), interest paid by consumers to business, and personal transfer payments to foreigners (net) — increased $30.4 billion in November, in contrast to a decrease of $57.5 billion in October. more - 3 - PCE increased $29.6 billion in November, in contrast to a decrease of $58.6 billion in October. Purchases of durable goods increased $4.2 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $73.3 billion. The large October decrease was due to motor vehicles. Purchases of nondurable goods increased $9.6 billion, compared with $8.2 billion. Purchases of services increased $15.8 billion, compared with $6.5 billion. Personal saving — disposable personal income less outlays — billion in November, compared with $108.0 billion in October. was $82.4 Constant-dollar estimates for October Constant-dollar disposable personal income — disposable personal income adjusted to remove price changes — increased $0.4 billion in October, in contrast to a decrease of $7.9 billion in September. Constant-dollar PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — decreased $56.6 billion in October, in contrast to an increase of $36.2 billion in September. November estimates of constant-dollar disposable income and PCE will be available in next month's release. Revisions Estimates have been revised for July through October. Changes in personal income, personal outlays, and personal saving — revised and as published in last month's release — are shown below. Change from preceding month Personal outlays Personal income Personal saving Previous Previous Previous Previous estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate Revised estimate Revised (Percent) (Billions of current dollars at annual rates) 1986: July Aug. Sept Oct. 0.3 .2 .3 .4 0.3 .2 .3 .4 11.0 7.6 11.1 12.7 8.9 7.1 10.0 12.4 more 13.1 26.6 39.7 -56.1 13.6 22.5 56.7 -57.5 -6.1 -24.5 -32.8 63.5 -8.7 -20.9 -51.0 64.9 4 Details of personal income and outlays for November and other recent periods are shown in the accompanying tables. Additional estimates appear each month in the Survey of Current Business, a monthly journal of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Survey of Current Business is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. First class mail: annual subscription $50.00 domestic. Second class mail: annual subscription $25.00 domestic, $31.25 foreign; single issue $5.00 domestic, $6.25 foreign. * * * Four telephone lines carry short recorded messages providing BEA estimates immediately upon their release. (202) 898-2450 2451 2452 2453 Leading indicators Gross national product Personal income and outlays The most recently released of the following quarterly series: Merchandise trade, balance of payment basis, or Summary of international transactions, or Plant and equipment expenditures * * * Next release for Personal Income and Outlays is January 23, at 10:00 A.M. EST. more Table 1. Personal Income CBIIlions of dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 1984 1985 Jun 86 Personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,481.9 3,490.8 3,497.9 3,507.9 3,520.3 3,531.0 Wage and salary disbursements... Commodity-producing industries.. Manufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distributive industries. . . . . . . Service industries...... . . . . . . Government and government enterprises..... . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,836.8 577.8 439.1 442.2 470.6 1,966.1 607.7 460.1 469.8 516.4 2,063.2 619.1 467.8 484.1 565.8 2,072.0 619.3 468.1 486.9 569.6 2,083.4 623.3 471.1 488.2 573.4 2,088.0 622.7 470.7 489.9 574.9 2,102.5 629.8 477.5 492.0 578.3 2,113.2 628.3 474.8 495.9 584.7 346.2 372.2 394.3 396.2 398.5 400.4 402.3 404.2 Other labor income. . . . . . . . . . . . . 184.5 196.9 208.2 209.5 210.4 211.3 212.1 213.0 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Farm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . No nfar m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 236.9 31.5 205.3 254.4 29.2 225.2 279.7 27.5 252.2 273.7 18.3 255.4 276.6 19.1 257.5 282.3 21.3 261.0 280.9 18.5 262.4 281.0 16.1 265.0 Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment...... Personal dividend income. . . . . . . Personal interest income. . . . . . . . 8.3 74.7 446.9 7.6 76.4 476.2 17.1 81.5 479.8 16.5 81.7 477.2 16.1 82.1 473.7 16.0 82.3 470.4 16.3 82.4 467.6 16.5 82.7 465.6 455.6 487.1 511.8 520.3 516.5 518.7 520.4 521.7 Jul 86r Aug 86r Sep 86r Oct 86r Nov 86p Transfer pa yments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Old-age, survivors, disability, and health insurance benefits.. Government unemployment insurance benefits. . . . . . Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235.7 253.4 264.1 272.0 268.1 268.7 270.1 270.7 15.8 204.1 15.7 217.9 16.7 231.0 16.9 231.3 16.8 231.6 16.8 233.2 16.7 233.6 16.4 234.6 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance. . . . . . . . 133.5 150.2 159.3 160.2 160.9 161.1 162.0 162.6 Addenda: Total nonfarm income. . . . . . . . . . . Total farm income . . . . . . . . . . . 3,052.2 58.0 3,261.0 53.5 3,431.7 50.2 3,449.6 41.1 3,455.9 42.0 3,463.7 44.2 3,478.8 41.5 3,492.0 39.0 1. Equals farm proprietors' income, farm 1 wages, farm other labor income, and agricultural net interest. r = revised p = preli m inary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2. The Disposition of Personal Income CBiIlions of do Ilars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 1984 1985 Jun 86 Personal income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,110.2 3,314.5 3,481.9 3,490.8 3,497.9 3,507.9 3,520.3 3,531.0 Less: Personal tax and nontax pa yments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 439.6 486.5 509.9 513.9 519.4 523.6 528.7 534.6 Equals: Disposable personal income.. 2,670.6 2,828.0 2,972.0 2,976.9 2,978.5 2,984.2 2,991.6 2,996.3 Less: Personal outlays. . . . . . . . . . . 2,501.9 2,684.7 2,848.3 2,861.9 2,884.4 2,941.1 2,883.6 2,914.0 2,428.2 2,600.5 2,753.8 2,766.7 2,788.6 2,844.0 2,785.4 2,815.0 72.3 82.6 93.3 94.1 94.7 96.0 97.0 97.8 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 168.7 143.3 123.7 115.0 94.1 43.1 108.0 82.4 2,470.6 2,528.0 2,610.5 2,612.4 2,606.2 2,598.3 2,598.7 Per capita: Current doi lars. . . . . 1982 dol lars...... . . . . . . Population (millions). . . . . . . . . . 11,265 10,421 237.1 11,817 10,563 239.3 12,312 10,814 241.4 12,323 10,814 241.6 12,319 10,779 241.8 12,331 10,736 242.0 12,351 10,729 242.2 Personal saving as percentage of disposable personal income . . . . 6.3 5.1 4.4 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 Personal consumption expenditures. Interest paid by consumers to business. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Personal transfer payments to foreigners (net)... . . . . . . . . . . Equals: Personal sa ving. . . . . . . . . . Jul 86r Aug 86r Sep 86r Oct 86r Nov 86p Addenda: Disposable personal income: Total, billions of 1982 dollars*... 12,363 242.4 1. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars equals the current-do 11ar figure divided by the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures. 2. Monthly estimates equal the centered three-month moving average of personal saving as a percentage of the centered three-month moving average of disposable personal income. r = revised p = preliminary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period [ B iIlions of dollars] Oct 86r Nov 86p 7.1 10.0 12.4 10.7 8.8 11.4 4.6 14.5 10.7 .9 1.3 .9 .9 .8 .9 17.5 -2.3 19.9 -7.5 -10.6 3.1 -6.0 -9.2 3.2 2.9 .8 2.1 5.7 2.2 3.5 -1.4 -2.8 1.4 .1 -2.4 2.6 .5 .4 -.3 1.1 -.6 .2 -2.6 8.5 -.4 .4 -3.5 -3.8 -.1 .2 -3.3 2.2 .3 .1 53.8 13.0 -.7 1.7 29.3 31.5 1.7 .2 .3 -2.0 1.3 Less: Personal contributions for social insurance..... . . . . . . 13.4 16.7 -.6 .9 .7 .2 .9 .6 ^ ■ L e s s : Personal tax and nontax payments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.1 46.9 6.0 4.0 4.2 5.1 5.9 Equals: Disposable personal income.. 242.5 157.4 -5.4 4.9 1.6 5.7 7.4 4.7 Less: Personal outlays. . . . . . . . . . . 204.5 182.8 23.1 13.6 22.5 56.7 -57.5 30.4 Equals: Personal saving. . . . . . . . . . 38.1 -25.4 -28.6 -8.7 -20.9 -51.0 64.9 -25.6 138.7 57.4 -16.5 1.9 -6.2 -7.9 .4 1984 1985 Jun 86 271.6 204.3 .6 8.9 Wage and salary disbursements... 160.2 129.3 4.8 Other labor income. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.9 12.4 Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fa rm...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . No nfar m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46.0 19.1 26.9 -4.9 Personal income....... . O CD Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment. . . . Personal dividend income... . . . . . Personal interest income....... . Transfer payments.. . . . . . . . . . . . . Jul 86r Aug 86r CO <SJ Sep 86r cn cn Seasonally adjusted at annual rates Addendum: Disposable personal income, billions of 1982 dollars. . . . . . . . r = revised p = preliminary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 4. Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product Seasonally adjusted at annual rates 1984 1985 Jun 86 Jul 86r Aug 86r Sep 86r Oct 86r Nov 86p Bi 1 lions of current dollars Personal consumption expenditures... Durable g o ods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,428.2 331.2 870.1 1,227.0 2,600.5 359.3 905.1 1,336.1 2,753.8 374.2 936.4 1,443.3 2,766.7 385.5 932.3 1,448.8 2,788.6 402.8 934.9 1,450.9 2,844.0 455.2 931.2 1,457.6 2,785.4 381.9 939.4 1,464.1 2,815.0 386.1 949.0 1,479.9 Bi 11 ions of constant (1982) dollars Personal consumption expenditures... Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 2,246.3 318.9 828.6 1,098.7 2,324.5 343.9 841.6 1,139.0 2,418.9 356.6 882.2 1,180.1 2,427.9 366.3 878.5 1,183.1 2,440.0 381.0 878.5 1,180.5 2,476.2 427.4 869.4 1,179.3 2,419.6 362.6 877.0 1,180.0 Implicit price deflators (Index numbers, 1982=100) Personal consumption expenditures... Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Servic es. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108.1 103.8 105.0 111.7 111.9 104.5 107.5 117.3 113.8 104.9 106.1 122.3 114.0 105.3 106.1 122.5 114.3 105.7 106.4 122.9 114.9 106.5 107.1 123.6 115.1 105.3 107.1 124.1 55.4 52.4 -3.7 6.7 -58.6 -73.3 8.2 6.5 36.2 46.4 -9.1 -1.2 -56.6 -64.8 7.6 .7 Change from preceding period Billions of current dollars Personal consumption expenditures... Durable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Services..... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193.7 42.1 53.4 98.3 172.3 28.1 35.0 109.1 22.1 -4.8 9.8 17.2 12.9 11.3 -4.1 5.5 21.9 17.3 2.6 2.1 Bi Ilions of constant (1982) dollars Personal consumption expenditures... Durable goods.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nondurable goods. . . . . . . . . . . . . Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . r = revised 100.3 35.8 28.4 36.0 78.2 25.0 13.0 40.3 p = preli m inary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis 8.6 -5.1 6.3 7.4 9.0 9.7 -3.7 3.0 12.1 14.7 .0 -2.6 29.6 4.2 9.6 15.8
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