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UNITED
STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION, 10:00 A.M., EST, WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11, 1985
Howard Murad:
523-0668
BEA 85-60
Merchandise Trade in the Third Quarter of 1985
— Balance of Payments Basis —
The U.S. merchandise trade balance was in deficit by a record $33.1
billion in the third quarter, compared with a deficit of $28.6 billion
(revised) in the second, according to preliminary estimates of the Commerce
Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
These estimates are seasonally
adjusted and are on a balance of payments basis, which excludes military
trade of U.S. defense agencies and reflects adjustments for timing,
coverage, and valuation to the trade data reported by the Census Bureau on
the f.a.s.-Customs valuation basis.
Imports increased $3.2 billion, or 4 percent, to $85.5 billion.
of the increase was in volume.
Most
The increase in imports was more than
accounted for by nonpetroleum imports; petroleum imports decreased.
Exports decreased $1.3 billion, or 3 percent, to $52.3 billion, the lowest
level since the third quarter of 1983; most of the decrease was in volume.
Both agricultural and nonagricultural exports decreased.
The trade deficit with the newly industrialized countries in the Far
East (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) increased $2.2 billion, to
$6.6 billion; with Japan, $1.4 billion, to $11.4 billion; and with Western
Europe, $0.8 billion, to $6.1 billion. The deficit with Mexico decreased
$0.3 billion, to $1.3 billion, and with Canada, $0.2 billion, to $3.6
billion.
-more-
- 2 -
Third-Quarter Imports
Nonpetroleum imports increased $3.8 billion, or 5 percent, to $72.9
billion; most of the increase was in volume. The largest increases were in
consumer goods, up $1.3 billion, or 9 percent; passenger cars from Canada,
up $0.7 billion, or 29 percent; business machines and passenger cars from
areas other than Canada, each up $0.4 billion, or 14 percent and 6 percent,
respectively; and nonmonetary gold, up $0.3 billion, or 53 percent.
Nonpetroleum imports from the newly industrialized countries in the Far
East increased $1.9 billion, or 22 percent; from Japan, $1.7 billion, or 11
percent; and from Western Europe, $0.7 billion, or 4 percent. Imports from
Canada decreased $1.3 billion, or 8 percent.
Petroleum imports decreased $0.5 billion, or 4 percent, to $12.6
billion. The average price per barrel decreased to $25.78 from $27.01 in
the second quarter. The average number of barrels imported daily increased
to 5.34 million from 5.30 million. Anticipation of lower prices in the
spot markets probably led importers to delay some purchases.
Third-Quarter Exports
Nonagricultural exports decreased $0.7 billion, or 2 percent, to $45.8
billion; most of the decrease was in volume. The largest decreases were in
machinery, down $0.8 billion, or 5 percent, and chemicals, down $0.2
billion, or 4 percent. There were increases in completed civilian
aircraft, up $0.5 billion, or 33 percent, and automotive products to
Canada, up $0.4 billion, or 8 percent.
Nonagricultural exports to Canada decreased $1.5 billion, or 10 per
cent; to Western Europe, $0.5 billion, or 4 percent; and to the newly
industrialized countries in the Far East, $0.2 billion, or 7 percent.
Exports to Latin American increased $0.7 billion, or 11 percent.
Agricultural exports decreased $0.6 billion, or 8 percent, to $6.5
billion, the lowest level since the first quarter of 1979. Nearly all the
decrease was in price. The average price of wheat decreased 9 percent, and
corn and soybeans, 8 percent each. The decrease in agricultural exports
was mostly to Eastern Europe, down $0.5 billion, or 84 percent; to the
developing countries in Africa, down $0.2 billion, or 23 percent; and to
Mexico, down $0.1 billion, or 33 percent.
Developments in 1985
The trade balance was in deficit by $113.6 billion at a seasonally
adjusted annual rate in the first 9 months of the year, compared with a
deficit of $114.1 billion for the full year 1984. Compared with the full
year 1984, imports in the first 9 months of 1985 were down $5.5 billion, or
2 percent, to an annual rate of $328.6 billion. The decrease was in price;
volume increased. The decrease in imports was more than accounted for by
petroleum imports; nonpetroleum imports increased. Exports decreased $4.9
billion, or 2 percent, to an annual rate of $215.0 billion; volume was
unchanged. Agricultural exports decreased and nonagricultural exports
increased.
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-3-
The decrease in imports largely reflected the sharp drop in the first
quarter from the peak level reached in the fourth quarter of 1984. The
decrease in exports partly reflects the increasingly competitive environ
ment in world markets. Also, the high value of the dollar has restrained
exports.
Nonpetroleum imports increased $3.9 billion, or 1 percent, to an
annual rate of $280.4 billion. An increase in volume accounted for the
increase; prices decreased. The largest increases were in automotive pro
ducts, up $5.4 billion, or 10 percent, and consumer goods, up $1.7 billion,
or 3 percent. Industrial supplies decreased $4.2 billion, or 7 percent,
and office and business machines decreased $1.5 billion, or 10 percent.
Petroleum imports decreased $9.4 billion, or 16 percent, to an annual rate
of $48.1 billion. The average price per barrel decreased to $26.41 from
$27.95 in 1984. The average number of barrels imported daily decreased to
4.99 million from 5.62 million.
Nonagricultural exports increased $4.3 billion, or 2 percent, to an
annual rate of $185.9 billion. There were increases in completed civilian
aircraft, up $2.8 billion, or 67 percent, and automotive products to
Canada, up $1.9 billion, or 12 percent. Agricultural exports decreased
$9.2 billion, or 24 percent, to an annual rate of $29.1 billion, the lowest
level since 1977. About 60 percent of the decrease was in volume.
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Merchandise Tra d e — Balance of Payments Basis
(Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, f . a .s.-Customs value)
1984
Annualr
1 9 W
J an-Sept
annual
rateP
W
1984
Ir
IIr
...
1985
IIIr
IVr
Ir
IIr
HIP
Change:
II-III
EXPORTS
Me r c h a n d i s e exports, Census basis, including
reexports, excluding military grant s h i p ments-------
218,744
213,264
53,034
54,070
55,255
56,385
55,077
52,894
51,977
-917
Gold e x p o r t s , n o n m o n e t a r y ------------------------------Inland freight (to Canada) valuation a d j u s t m e n t ----
330
1,541
416
1,468
45
381
38
394
57
386
190
380
131
368
38
384
143
349
+105
-35
U.S . - C a n a d a reconcil i a t i o n adjustments, n.e.c., net
4,962
5,299
1,284
1 ,353
1,512
813
1,291
1 ,453
1 ,230
-223
Exports transferred under U.S. m i l i t a r y agency
sales contracts identified in Census d o c u m e n t s ---
-5,719
-5,964
-1,344
-1 ,276
-1,535
-1,564
-1,498
-1 ,475
-1,500
-25
Other adjustments to Census expo r t s -------------------
57
499
69
-23
-26
37
-67
330
111
-219
219,915
214,982
53,469
54,556
55,649
56,241
55,302
53,624
52,310
-1,314
330,515
324,991
77,139
83,362
83,678
86,336
77,869
81 ,379
84,495
+3,116
Adjustments:
Equals:
M e r c h andise exports, adjusted to bala n c e of
payments basis, excluding " m i l i t a r y "----------------IMPORTS
Mer c h a n d i s e imports,
Census basis (general i m ports)—
Adjustments:
i»
•
Gold imports, n o n m o n e t a r y -------------------------------
474
644
71
148
141
114
138
52
293
+241
Inland freight in Canada--------------------------------
1,504
1,464
414
363
361
366
362
392
344
-48
U.S . - C a n a d a r e c onciliation adjustments, n.e.c., net
775
_
370
98
107
200
_
Imports of U.S. mil i t a r y agencies identified in
Census d o c u m e n t s ---------------------------------------
-795
-988
-149
-204
-239
-203
-239
-275
-227
+48
Other adjustments to Census imports-------------------
1,551
2,447
246
414
578
314
62 6
662
547
-115
334,024
328,558
78,091
84,180
84,626
87,127
78,756
82,210
85,452
+3,242
C-111,7 7 1’
-112,727
-24,105
-29,292
-28,423
-29,951
-22,792
-28,485
-32,518
-4,033
-114,110
-113,578
-24,622
-29,625
-28,977
-30,886
-23,454
-28,586
-33,142
-4,556
Exports of agricultural products---------------------Exports of nonagricultural products-------------------
38,329
181,586
29,087
185,895
9,977
43,492
9,487
45,069
9,143
46,506
9,722
46,519
8,178
47,124
7,116
46,508
6,521
45,789
-595
-719
Imports of p e t r o l e u m and products--------------------Imports of n o n p e t r o l e u m products----------------------
57,517
276,507
48
280,435
14,945
69,235
14,239
70,387
14,453
72,674
10,477
68,279
13,063
69,147
12,552
72,900
-511
3,753
Equals:
M e r c h andise imports, adjusted to b a l ance of
payments basis, excluding " m i l i t a r y " --------BALANCE
(Excess of exports +)
Mer c h a n d i s e trade,
Census basis--------------------------
Mer c h a n d i s e trade, adjusted to balance of payments
basis, excluding " m i l i t a r y "---------------------------Memoranda:
A
13,880
64,211
{B
SOURCE:
U.S. Depa r t m e n t of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division,
r Revised.
p Preliminary.
BEA has revised its merchandise exports and imports series from the first quarter
of 1983 through the second quarter of 1985. The revision was necessary because the
Census data, upon which the BEA estimates are based, have been recalculated to
reflect more accurately the actual movement of merchandise. For BEA's estimates,
for 1983 and 1984, imports are now recorded in the month in which they were actually
released from Customs; exports, are now recorded in the actual month of shipment.
Previously, both imports and exports were recorded on the basis of the "statistical
month"— that is the month in which documents were processed by the Census Bureau.
For the first and second quarters of 1985 (as well as for the third quarter), esti
mates are recorded on the "revised statistical month" basis, which more closely
approximates the actual month of release from Customs or of shipment than does the
statistical month basis.
Revisions to quarterly estimates were substantial in some instances, while revi
sions over longer periods of time were small. Revisions for imports were much
larger than for exports. Revisions of commodity and country detail are not yet
available, but will be presented in a complete set of tables in the December Survey
of Current Business. Estimates presented in this release and in the Survey are
seasonally adjusted by BEA.
Revised annual and quarterly estimates for 1983, which are not shown in the table
that regularly accompanies this release, are presented below:
Millions of dollars,
seasonally adjusted
Merchandise exports, adjusted to balance of
payments basis, excluding "military"
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonagricultural products
Merchandise imports, adjusted to balance of
payments basis, excluding "military"
Imports of petroleum products
Imports of nonpetroleum products
Merchandise trade balance, adjusted to balance
of payments basis, excluding "military"
Next release —
Payment Basis:
1983
Annualr
Ir
1983
IIr
201,712
49,535
49,048
49,992
53,137
37,168
164,544
8,843
40,692
8,813
40,235
9,392
40,600
10,120
43,017
268,928
58,418
64,928
70,689
74,893
54,988
213,940
10,675
47,743
13,767
51,161
16,331
54,358
14,215
60,678
-67,216
-8,883 -15,880
--20,697
-21,756
Merchandise Trade in the Fourth Quarter of 1985, Balance of
March 12, 1986
IIIr
IVr
@FedFRASER