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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION 8:30 A.M. EDT, TUESDAY, AUGUST 2, 1988 Larry Moran: Recorded Message: <202) 523-0777 (202) 898-2450 BEA 88-36 COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS: JUNE 1988 The composite index of leading indicators increased 1.4 percent in June to 194.0 (1967=100), according to preliminary estimates released today by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.8 percent in May and increased 0.3 percent in April. A month ago, the bureau reported estimates that showed the index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.5 percent in April. Change in credit outstanding was the major contributor to both the May and April revisions. Seven of 9 indicators available for June contributed to the increase in the index. They were, ordered from the largest positive contributor to the smallest: stock prices, vendor performance (i.e., companies receiving slower deliveries from vendors), contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance, build ing permits, change in sensitive materials prices, and money supply in 1982 dollars. One of 9 indicators made a negative contribution: manufacturers 1 new orders for consumer goods and materials in 1982 dollars. One indicator was unchanged: average workweek. The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in June to 177.5 <1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.2 percent in May and decreased 0.1 percent in April. The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.8 percent in June to 147.8 (1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index decreased 0.1 percent in May and increased 0.8 percent in April. more - 2 The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic activity,, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coin cident index and thus to confirm the movements in the coincident index. These concepts are explained more fully in the 1984 edition of Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (price $5.50, stock number 003-010-00127-5), which is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. More data on the composite indexes, as well as other important measures of economic activity, appear each month in Business Conditions D i g e s t , also avail able from the Superintendent of Documents. Annual subscription: $44.00. This and other news releases are available electronically at the time of public release through the Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board at a nominal charge to users. For information, call (202) 377-1986. Four telephone lines carry short recorded messages providing BEA estimates immediately upon their release: (202) 898-2450 2451 2452 2453 Leading indicators Gross national product Personal income and outlays The most recently released of the following series: Merchandise trade, balance of payments basis, or Summary of international transactions, or Plant and equipment expenditures. Next release d a t e : August 30 for the July composite indexes. Table Y ear 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Jan. 147.7 1 4 1 .4 142.1 135.1 1 4 5 .2 1 6 4 .6 165.5 174.1 1 8 5 .5 1 9 0 .4 r Feb. 1 4 7 .5 140.4 140.4 1 3 5 .7 1 4 7 .4 1 66.7 1 66.5 1 75.0 1 8 6 .0 1 9 1 .9 r M ar. 1. Composite A pr. 1 49.3 1 3 7 .4 1 4 1 .7 1 3 4 .7 1 50.2 1 66.7 1 67.2 1 7 6 .4 1 8 7 .6 1 9 2 .4 r 146.4 1 33.4 1 4 4 .6 1 3 6 .0 1 5 2 .5 1 67.6 1 6 5 .9 178.1 1 87.6 1 9 2 .9r May .3 .6 -.6 -.8 3 .1 .7 1 .0 .1 -.6 ~ .3 r -.1 -.7 -1 .2 .4 1 .5 1 .3 .6 .5 .3 .8 1 .2 -2 .1 .9 -.7 1 .9 .0 .4 .8 .9 .3r -1 .9 -2 .9 2 .0 1 .0 1 .5 .5 -.8 1 .0 .0 .3r June 147.6 1 46.5 1 32.0 130.9 1 44.5 1 43.2 1 36.2 1 35.5 1 5 4 .4 1 57.3 1 66.6 1 67.9 1 6 6 .9 1 67.3 1 78.5 1 7 8 .3 1 88.6 1 90.5 1 9 1 . 3 r 1 9 4 . Op L ead in g 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Indexes of L e a d i n g , Ju ly ( 1 9 6 7 = 10 0 ) 1 45.2 135.1 1 42.9 1 3 6 .2 1 5 8 .2 1 63.8 1 68.5 1 79.9 1 9 0 .9r 1 44.5 1 41.2 1 39.3 1 3 7 .5 160.0 1 64.1 1 7 0 .2 179.9 1 9 1 .9r 1 4 4 .5 1 3 8 .3 1 4 2 .4 136.1 1 58.9 1 6 3 .4 1 69.3 1 80.3 1 9 1 .7 r -.7 .8 -.9 -.5 1 .9 -.8 .2 -.1 1 .0 1 . 4p -.9 2 .3 -.2 .5 .6 -1 .7 .7 .9 •2 r 1 4 9 .3 1 4 9 .4 1 50.7 149.6 1 46.8 1 4 7 .2 138.4 139.9 1 34.3 133.5 1 49.5 1 5 0 .6 158.4 1 59.0 1 6 2 .9 1 63.4 1 6 5 .6 1 6 8 .2 1 7 3 .8 r 1 7 5 .2 r 1 51.2 1 48.1 1 4 7 .2 1 3 9 .2 1 3 4 .6 1 51.1 1 5 9 .3 1 6 2 .9 1 68.0 1 7 6 .l r 1 49.1 1 5 0 .6 1 50.6 1 45.1 1 4 2 .4 141.1 1 47.1 1 4 6 .9 1 4 7 .5 1 38.0 1 3 8 .8 1 37.3 1 3 5 .6 1 3 7 .9 1 39.8 1 5 2 .6 1 5 3 .9 1 5 5 .4 1 6 0 .5 1 6 0 .2 1 5 9 .5 1 6 5 .6 1 6 4 .3 1 63.7 1 6 8 .0 1 6 7 .6 1 6 8 .2 1 7 5 . 9 r 1 7 6 . 3 r 1 7 7 . 5p 1 5 1 .0 1 40.8 1 4 7 .6 1 36.4 140.7 155.7 159.7 1 64.4 1 6 9 .8r -.3 .5 .5 -1 .8 1 .3 1 .4 -.3 -.1 -1 .1 ~ .3 r .1 -.7 .3 1 .1 -.6 .7 .4 .3 1 .6 .8 r 1 .2 -1 .0 .0 -.5 .8 .3 .2 -.3 -.1 .5 r -1 .4 -2 .0 -.1 -.9 .7 1.0 .8 1.7 .0 -.1 1 .0 -1 .9 -.1 .6 1 .7 .9 -.2 -.8 -.2 .2 .0 -.9 .4 -1 .1 1 .4 1 .0 -.4 -.4 .4 ■7p -.5 2 .4 -.3 -.1 .4 -.2 .5 .2 .4 .0 2 .1 -2 .2 1 .0 .7 .4 .5 -.2 .1 index 1 50.6 1 41.2 1 47.3 1 35.2 1 40.8 1 56.0 1 60.9 1 64.8 1 7 0 .6 r .3 -.2 .1 -.7 .6 .2 .1 .4 1 . Or -.3 .3 -.2 -.9 .1 .2 .8 .2 .5r L agging 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1 19.2 1 2 6 .2 121.7 1 2 6 .5 117.8 115.0 1 3 1 .6 1 4 0 .5 1 44.6 1 4 4 .5 r 1 1 9 .7 1 27.1 1 2 0 .7 1 2 5 .6 1 17.9 1 1 6 .7 1 31.9 141.1 1 42.1 1 4 4 .9r 1 18.8 1 30.2 1 1 9 .0 1 25.8 1 1 6 .9 118.1 1 32.9 1 4 2 .3 1 4 1 .3 1 4 5 .7 1 2 1 .7 1 2 1 .0 1 22.3 1 3 2 .3 1 29.6 125.5 1 1 9 .0 1 22.2 1 2 2 .4 1 2 6 .3 1 26.3 126.5 1 15.9 113.8 1 14.2 120.6 1 22.9 124.9 1 3 3 .3 1 34.9 134.9 1 4 0 .5 1 4 1 .4 1 41.6 1 4 1 .8 1 4 2 .0 1 42.6 1 4 6 . 8 r 1 4 6 . 6 r 1 4 7 . 8p L agging 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 p, 1 .0 .1 -1 .1 1 .7 -1 .2 -.9 1 .2 .7 1 .5 1 .3 r .4 .7 -.8 -.7 .1 1 .5 .2 .4 -1 .7 ■3 r p relim in ary . -.8 2 .4 -1 .4 .2 -.8 1.2 .8 .9 -.6 .6 r r, 2 .4 1 .6 .0 .4 -.9 2 .1 .3 -1 .3 .4 .8 r index 1 22.3 1 2 3 .0 1 21.8 1 2 0 .5 1 22.5 1 23.3 1 24.0 1 2 5 .8 1 13.6 1 14.6 1 25.8 1 2 7 .6 1 3 5 .6 1 3 5 .3 1 41.8 1 42.2 1 4 1 .8 r 1 41.6 in d e x — p e r c e n t c la n g e -.6 -2 .0 2 .7 .0 -1 .5 1 .9 1 .2 .6 .1 -.lr 1 .1 -3 .2 .2 .2 -.4 1 .6 .0 .1 .4 •8p .0 -2 .9 .1 -.6 -.2 .7 .3 .1 -.6 r 1 41.7 1 4 2 .4 1 36.9 1 38.6 1 6 2 .4 1 6 3 .6 1 71.2 1 81.2 1 9 2 . Or from p r e c e d i n g C o in c id e n t in d e x — p e r c e n t change 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 and Lagging O ct. L ead in g index C o in cid en t 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Sept Aug. in d ex — p e r c e n t change .8 -1 .9 -.1 .1 1 .2 .2 .6 .2 .5 -.8 r Coincident, -1 .9 .8 -1 .7 .8 1 .5 -.3 .6 .7 .1 Nov. D ec. IQ 140.1 1 4 3 .4 1 37.0 1 3 9 .4 1 6 2 .5 164.4 171.1 1 8 2 .7 1 9 0 . Or 140.5 1 4 3 .0 1 3 6 .2 1 4 0 .9 1 6 3 .4 1 6 3 .8 1 7 4 .0 1 86.7 1 9 0 .9r 1 48.2 1 3 9 .7 141.4 1 3 5 .2 1 4 7 .6 1 6 6 .0 1 6 6 .4 1 7 5 .2 1 8 6 .4 1 9 1 .6 r m onth IIIQ IVQ 1 4 6 .8 132.1 144.1 1 3 5 .9 1 5 4 .7 167.4 166.7 1 78.3 1 8 8 .9 1 9 2 . 7p 1 44.7 1 38.2 1 41.5 1 36.6 1 59.0 1 63.8 1 69.3 1 80.0 1 9 1 .5 r 1 40.8 1 4 2 .9 1 36.7 1 3 9 .6 1 62.8 1 63.9 172.1 1 83.5 1 9 1 . Or -.9 -5 .4 1 .9 .5 4 .8 .8 .2 1 .8 1 .3 •6p -1 .4 4 .6 -1 .8 .5 2 .8 -2 .2 1 .6 1 .0 1 .4 -2 .7 3 .4 -3 .4 2 .2 2 .4 .1 1 .7 1 .9 -. 3r IIQ (q u a rte r) -1 .1 .7 .1 .6 .1 .5 -.1 .8 -1 .O r .3 -.3 -.6 1 .1 .6 -.4 1 .7 2 .2 .5 r .4 -.8 -1 .0 -1 .1 5 .7 2 .0 1 .5 1 .8 1 .6 .3 r 1 49.9 1 45.3 1 43.0 1 3 2 .7 1 45.9 157.7 161.6 1 6 5 .8 1 7 2 .6 r 1 50.0 1 46.1 1 40.9 1 32.6 1 47.5 1 58.8 1 6 3 .0 1 6 7 .4 1 7 4 .4r 1 50.0 1 4 9 .5 1 47.1 1 3 9 .2 1 34.1 1 50.4 1 5 8 .9 1 63.1 167.3 1 7 5 . Or (1967=100) 1 5 0 .4 150.3 1 4 2 .7 144.2 1 46.5 144.5 1 3 4 .5 1 3 2 .9 1 4 3 .3 1 4 5 .0 1 5 6 .5 1 56.5 1 6 0 .9 1 6 0 .8 1 65.8 165.4 1 7 0 .7r 1 7 3 .l r fro m p r e c e d i n g m onth -.1 l.i -.5 -.5 1 .8 .3 .0 .6 .1 -.1 1.1 -1 .4 -1 .2 1 .2 .0 -.1 -.2 1 .4r 1 50.1 1 5 0 .7 1 42.9 1 4 1 .6 1 47.2 147.1 1 3 8 .0 1 3 5 .4 1 3 7 .8 1 4 1 .6 1 54.0 156.1 1 6 0 .5 1 60.1 1 64.5 1 65.0 1 67.9 1 7 0 .4 r 1 7 6 . 6p 150.1 145.2 1 4 2 .8 1 32.7 146.1 1 57.7 1 61.8 1 6 6 .2 1 7 3 .4 r (q u a rte r) -.3 .8 -1 .0 -.2 .6 .8 .5 .2 -.3 .1 .6 -1 .5 -.1 1 .1 .7 .9 1 .0 1 . Or 1 26.3 1 20.1 1 24.5 1 20.5 1 15.1 1 30.1 1 38.5 1 4 3 .4 1 43.3 126.1 1 2 3 .0 1 2 4 .4 1 1 9 .2 1 1 6 .0 130.1 1 3 9 .5 1 4 2 .4 1 4 2 .7 r 1 .0 -.4 1 .3 -2 .5 1 .1 2 .9 .8 .8 .7 .9 .1 -4 .4 .1 -.9 2 .8 2 .4 .8 .9 .4 •9p .4 -.9 -.1 -1 .9 2 .8 1 .4 .2 .3 1 .5r -.4 2 .5 -2 .9 -2 .0 3 .2 1 .0 .8 .7 1 .8 r 1 1 9 .2 1 27.8 120.5 1 2 6 .0 1 1 7 .5 1 1 6 .6 1 32.1 141.3 1 4 2 .7 1 4 5 . Or 1 21.7 129.1 1 2 1 .2 126.4 1 1 4 .6 1 2 2 .8 1 3 4 .4 1 4 1 .2 1 42.1 1 4 7 .Ip 1 23.3 1 20.6 1 23.5 1 2 4 .4 1 14.2 127.4 1 36.0 1 41.9 1 4 2 .l r 1 26.1 120.7 1 2 4 .6 1 2 0 .6 115.1 130.1 1 3 8 .8 1 43.2 1 4 2 .8 r 2 .1 1.3 -.2 1 .1 -2 .6 1.3 1 .5 1 .8 -.3 1 .5 r 2 .1 1 .0 .6 .3 -2 .5 5 .3 1.7 -.1 -.4 1 .4 p 1 .3 -6 .6 1 .9 -1 .6 -.3 3 .7 1 .2 .5 .O r (1967=100) 124.7 119.4 1 24.7 1 2 3 .4 1 1 4 .4 1 28.9 137.1 1 4 1 .6 1 4 3 . Or 1 25.8 1 19.0 1 2 5 .0 1 22.1 1 14.1 130.1 138.5 1 4 3 .7 1 4 2 .5 from p r e c e d i n g .6 -1 .1 .7 -1 .4 .9 1 .4 .2 .3 -.lr Indicators 1 .4 -.9 1 .1 -.5 -.2 1 .0 1 .1 -.4 1 .O r .9 -.3 .2 -1 .1 -.3 .9 1 .0 1 .5 -.3 r m onth .4 .9 -.4 -1 .3 .9 .0 .0 -.2 .6 (q u a rte r) -.2 2 .4 -.1 -1 .1 .8 .0 .7 -.7 2 .3 .1 .9 -3 .1 .8 2 .1 2 .1 .9 re v ised . NOTE: Q u a r te r ly d a ta a r e a v e r a g e s o f m o nthly f i g u r e s . bee t a b l e s 2 and 3 f o r c o m p o sitio n o f th e in d e x e s . Q u a rte rly p e rc e n t changes a re com puted from q u a r t e r l y d a t a , Table 2. Recent Data and Net C o n t r i b u t i o n s for the Com p o n e n t s of the L e a ding Index 1987 Component June July Aug. Sept 1988 O ct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. A p r. May J une 4 1 . Or 4 1 . Op 307 292 L e a d i n g I n d e x D a ta A v e ra g e w orkw eek . p r o d u c t i o n w o r k e r s , mfg. ( h o u r s ) ............................................. 41.0 4 1.0 41.0 4 0.6 41.2 4 1.2 41.0 41.1 41.0 40.9 4 1.2 A v e ra g e w e e k l y i n i t i a l cla im s, s t a t e u n e m p lo y me nt i n s u r a n c e ( t h o u s . ) * . . 327 327 297 286 284 293 312 351 321 304 296 83.69 85.71 85.96 85.89 86.66 84.81 60 69 70 66 71 68 New o r d e r s , m f g . , c o n su m e r goods a n a m a t e r i a l s i n d . ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) ____ V e n d o r p e r f o r m a n c e , com p a n ie s r e c e i v i n g slow er d e l i v e r i e s ( p e r c e n t ) ............. 8 5.66r 57 8 4 . 19r 62 C o n t r a c t s and o r d e r s , p l a n t and equipm ent ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) . . . . 3 8.80r 4 0 . 18r 38.25 38.28 39.12 37.53 4 1 .7 5 r 4 3.42r B uilding perm its ( i n d e x : 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 ) .................... 122.7 120.4 120.7 119.7 115.9 116.3 109.4 Change i n i n v e n t o r i e s on ha nd and on o r d e r ( a n n . r a t e , b i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) # . 3 9.33r 3 8.95r 3 0.33r 2 0 . 18r 21.22 t 4 2 .5 7 r 5 4 .39r C hange i n s e n s i t i v e m a terials p ric e s ( p e t.) # .. 8 6 . 14r 66 86.46 69 8 7 .4 6 r 62 8 8.60r 66 8 7 . 56p 70 4 2 .1 2 t 4 0.89r 4 1 .5 1 r 3 9 .98r 42.93p 99.5 114.0 117.7 115.6 114.5 119.1 5 4 .32r 5 1.34r 4 4 .7 6 r 3 1 .0 5 r 19.41p NA ■1 3 r ■1 3 r .3 2 r .46 1.48 1.73 1.51 1.27 1.30 1.11 .76 .36 S t o c k p r i c e s , 500 common s t o c k s ( i n d e x : 1 9 4 1 -4 3 = 1 0 ) 3 0 1 . 3 8 310.09 329.36 318.66 280.16 245.01 240.96 250.48 258.13 265.74 262.61 Money s u p p l y M2 ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) ____ 2 4 2 4 . 9 2424.3 2423.6 2425.0 2428.4 2423.9 2423.6 2435 . 5 2448.9 2454.5 2 4 6 2 . 3 r 2 4 6 3 . 6 r 2 4 6 6 . 6p 1.6 4.1 8 .9 Change i n c r e d i t — b u s i n e s s a n a c o n su m e r b o r r o w i n g ( a n n . r a t e , p e r c e n t ) ............. COMPOSITE LEADING INDEX.......... 7 .9 190.5 1 90.9r 1 91.7r 1 91.9r 9. l r 1 9 2 . Or 5 .8 1 9 0 . Or 1 1 .4r 190.9 r 13 . 2 190.4 r .21 256.12 270.68 1 0 .l r 6 .4 r 1 2 .4r 5 .5p NA 191.9 r 1 92.4r 1 92.9 r 1 91.3r 1 9 4 . Op L e a d i n g I n d e x N et C o n t r i b u t i o n s A v e ra g e w orkw eek . p r o d u c t i o n w o r k e r s , mfg. ( h o u r s ) ............................................. .00 .00 .00 -.3 3 .50 .00 -.1 6 .08 -.0 8 -.0 8 .25 -.1 6 .00 A v e ra g e w e e k ly i n i t i a l claim s, s t a t e u n e m p lo y ment i n s u r a n c e ( t h o u s . ) * . . -.0 1 .00 . 29 .11 . 02 -.0 9 -.1 9 -.3 5 .27 .16 .08 -.1 1 .18 New o r d e r s , m f g . , c o n su m e r go ods and m a t e r i a l s i n d . ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) . . . . .11 -.0 9 -.0 3 .13 .02 -.0 0 .05 -.1 2 .08 .02 .06 .07 -.0 8 V e ndor p e r f o r m a n c e , com p a n ie s r e c e i v in g slow er d e l i v e r i e s ( p e r c e n t ) ............. -.1 3 .22 -.0 9 .39 . 04 -.1 8 . 22 -.1 3 -.0 9 .13 -.3 1 .18 .21 C o n t r a c t s a nd o r d e r s , p l a n t and e q u i p m e n t ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) . . . . -.0 1 .08 -.1 2 .00 .05 -.1 0 .25 .09 -.0 4 -.1 0 . 04 -.0 9 .21 .16 B uilding perm its .07 -.0 6 . 01 -.0 3 -.1 0 .01 -.2 0 -.3 1 .44 .10 -.0 6 -.0 3 Change i n i n v e n t o r i e s on ha n d a n d on o r d e r ( a n n . r a t e , b i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) # . .h -.0 1 -.2 3 -.2 7 .18 .40 .31 -.0 0 -.0 8 -.1 7 -.3 6 -.3 1 Change i n s e n s i t i v e m a terials p ric e s ( p e t.)# .. .31 .11 -.0 9 -.1 0 .01 -.0 8 -.1 5 -.1 7 -.1 0 . 00 .03 .05 .07 S t o c k p r i c e s , 500 common s t o c k s ( i n d e x : 1 9 4 1 -4 3= 10) .28 .19 . 41 -.2 2 -.8 7 -.9 1 -.1 1 .26 .20 . 20 -.0 8 -.1 7 .46 Money s u p p l y M2 ( b i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) . . . . -.0 6 -.0 1 -.0 1 .02 .05 -.0 6 -.0 0 .17 . 19 .08 .11 .02 .05 Change i n c r e d i t — b u s i n e s s and consumer bo rro w in g ( a n n . r a t e , p e r c e n t ) ............. .19 -.3 6 . 14 .27 .01 -.1 9 .32 .10 -.1 8 -.2 1 .34 -.3 9 PCT. CHANGE IN LEADING INDEX 1.01 .42 .10 .05 -1 .0 4 r ■2 6 r -.8 3 r •2 1 r . 47r -.2 6 r .79 •2 6 r * S e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e c o m p o s i t e i n d e x : a d e c r e a s e i n t h i s s e r i e s i s c o n s i d e r e d an upw ard # Smoot he d by a w e i g h t e d 4 - m o n t h moving a v e r a g e ( w i t h w e i g h t s 1 , 2 ^ 2 , ! ) p l a c e d a t t h e t e r m i n a l month o r t h e NA, n o t a v a i l a b l e . p, prelim in ary . r , rev ised . e, estim ated . NOTE.— The n e t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n t i s t h a t c o m p o n e n t ’s s h a r e i n t h e c o m p o s i t e movement p e r c e n t c h a n g e i n t h e i n d e x e q u a l s ( e x c e p t f o r r o u n d i n g d i f f e r e n c e s ) t h e sum o f t h e n e t c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f p lu s th e t r e n d a d ju s tm e n t f a c t o r (0.139 f o r th e le a d in g in d e x ) . NA NA 1.41p mo vem en t. span. of th e group. The t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n ts t Table 3. Recent Data and Net Contri b u t i o n s for the C o m p o n e n t s of the C o i n c i d e n t and Lagg i n g Indexes 1988 1987 Component June Ju ly Aug. Sept O ct. Nov. Dec. Fe b. Mar . 104729 105020 Jan. A pr. May June C o i n c i d e n t I n d e x D a ta E m p lo y ee s on n o n a g r i c u l tu r a l p ay ro lls T th o u s.)... 102078 P e r s o n a l income l e s s t r a n s f e r p a y m e n ts ( a n n . r a t e , b i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) . . 2 6 7 8 . 7 r 2 6 9 8 . 7 r 2 7 0 7 . 8 r 2 7 0 5 . 4 r 2 7 5 4 . 2 r 2 7 3 6 . 8 r 2 7 7 8 . 2 r 2 7 4 5 . 6 r 2 7 6 4 . Or 2 7 7 6 . 3 r 2 7 6 8 . Or 2 7 6 9 . 7 r 2 7 8 4 . I p I n d u s tr ia l p roduction, t o t a l (in d e x : 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 )... M a n u f a c t u r i n g a nd t r a d e s a l e s ( m i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) . COMPOSITE COINCIDENT INDEX.. 102430 129.1 130.6 102672 131.2 102906 131.0 103371 132.5 103678 133.2 104001 133.9 104262 134.4 134.4 134.7 1 0 5 2 8 1 r 1 0 5 5 0 2 r 105848p 1 35.4r 13 6 .l r 4 3 0 9 6 2 r 4 3 4 0 9 7 r 4 3 7 0 2 1 r 4 3 9 7 9 5 r 4 3 9 1 1 6 r 4 3 5 4 2 4 r 4 3 7 0 9 0 r 4 3 8 8 6 6 r 4 4 4 1 1 7 r 4 4 8 2 0 2 r 4 4 5 4 6 7 r 446418 p 168.2 1 69.8r 1 70.6r 170.7 r 1 73.l r 172.6r 174.4r 1 73.8r 175.2r 17 6 .l r 1 75.9 r 1 76.3r 1 3 6 . 6p NA 1 7 7 . 5p C o in c id e n t Index Net C o n t r i b u t i o n s Em plo yee s on n o n a g r i c u l tu ra l p ay ro lls ( th o u s .) ... .20 .29 .20 .19 .37 .25 .26 .21 .37 .23 .21 .17 .35 P e r s o n a l income l e s s t r a n s f e r p a y m e n ts ( a n n . r a t e , b i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) . . .00 .37 .17 -.0 4 .90 -.3 2 .75 -.5 9 .33 .22 -.1 5 .03 .34 I n d u s tr ia l p roduction, t o t a l (index: 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 )... .19 .32 .13 -.0 4 .32 .15 .15 .10 .00 .06 . 14 .14 .13 M an u fa c tu rin g and t r a d e s a l e s ( m i l l i o n 1982 d o l . ) . .10 .16 .15 . 14 -.0 3 -.1 9 .08 .09 .26 .20 -.1 4 .05 PERCENT CHANGE IN INDEX.......... .36 •95r ■4 7 r .0 6 r 1 . 41r -.2 9 1 .0 4 r -.3 4 r ■8 1 r •5 1 r -.1 1 •23r NA .68p L a g g i n g I n d e x D a ta A v e ra g e d u r a t i o n o f u n e m plo ym e nt ( w e e k s ) * .......... 14.7 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.4 13.7 13.4 13.8 R a t io , d e f l a t e d inven t o r i e s t o s a l e s , mfg. and t r a d e ( r a t i o ) .............................. 1.53 1.52 1 .5 1 r 1.50 1 .5 2 r 1.5 4 r 1 . 54r 1.5 5 r 1 .5 4 r 1 .5 3 r 1.5 4 r 1 . 54p Labor c o s t p e r u n i t of o u t p u t , m fg . ( a c t u a l a s p e r c e n t o f t r e n d ) .................... 9 9 .3r 98 .5r 9 9 . Or 1 00.l r 9 9 .4r 9 9 .5r 9 8 .8r 9 9 .l r 9 9 .4r 1 00.5r 9 9 .8r 9 9 .6r 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.70 9.07 8.78 8.75 8.75 8.51 8.50 8 .84 3 4 4383 3465 0 3 3 4 8215 348281 353161 3 5 6180 A v e ra g e p r im e r a t e c h a r g e d . by b a n k s ( p e r c e n t ) .................. C o m m e r c i a l a nd i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding ( m i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) ------354 015 348 139 8.50 3 6 0 7 1 3 r 3611 85 12.9 NA 1 0 0 . Op 9.00 3 6 7 3 9 1 r 3 6 5 9 2 5 r 36335 8p R a t i o , c o n su m e r i n s t a l l me nt c r e d i t t o p e r s o n a l income ( p e r c e n t ) ....................... 1 5.69r 15.71r 1 5.73r 1 5 .7 8 r 1 5.57r 1 5.67r 1 5.56r 1 5.79r 15.82r 1 5.79r 1 5.85r 15.84p COMPOSITE LAGGING INDEX.......... 142.6 141.8 r 141.6 1 4 3 . Or 142.5 143.3 1 42.7 r 1 44.5r 1 44.9r 145.7 1 46.8r 1 46.6r 1 4 7 . 8p .71 NA Lagging Index Net C o n t r i b u t i o n s A verage d u r a t i o n o f u n e m plo ym e nt ( w e e k s ) * .......... .05 .25 -.0 5 .05 .05 .05 -.1 0 -.1 0 .00 . 36 .16 -.2 1 R a t io , d e f l a t e d inven t o r i e s t o s a l e s , mfg. and t r a d e ( r a t i o ) .............................. .00 -.1 3 -.1 3 -.1 3 .26 .26 .00 .13 -.1 3 -.1 3 .13 .00 Labor c o s t p e r u n i t of o u t p u t , m fg . ( a c t u a l a s p e r c e n t o f t r e n d ) .................... -.1 8 -.2 9 .18 .40 -.2 6 .04 -.2 6 .11 .11 .40 -.2 6 -.0 7 .22 A v e ra g e p r im e r a t e c h a r g e d by b a n k s ( p e r c e n t ) .................. .08 .00 .00 .32 .26 -.2 0 -.0 2 .00 -.1 7 -.0 1 .00 . 24 .16 C om m e rc ia l a n d i n d u s t r i a l lo an s o u tsta n d in g ( m i l l i o n 1982 d o l l a r s ) . . . . -.1 5 -.4 4 -.2 9 .16 .13 .00 .37 .22 .33 .03 .45 -.1 1 -.2 7 R a t i o , c o n su m e r i n s t a l l me nt c r e d i t t o p e r s o n a l income ( p e r c e n t ) ....................... .58 .08 .08 .19 -.8 1 .38 -.4 2 .88 .12 -.1 2 PERCENT CHANGE IN INDEX.......... .42 - . 56r - . 14r •9 9 r - .35r .56 -.4 2 r 1 .2 6 r . 28r .5 5 r .23 -.0 4 •75r -.1 4 r NA NA .82p * S e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e c o m p o s i t e i n d e x : a d e c r e a s e i n t h i s s e r i e s i s c o n s i d e r e d a n upw ard movem ent. NA. n o t a v a i l a b l e . p, p re lim in a ry . r , rev ised . e, e stim ated . NOTE.— The n e t c o n t r i b u t i o n o f a n i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n t i s t h a t c o m p o n e n t ' s s h a r e i n t h e c o m p o s i t e movement o f t h e g r o u p . The p e r c e n t c h a n g e i n t h e in d e x e q u a l s ( e x c e p t f o r r o u n d i n g d i f f e r e n c e s ) t h e sum o f t h e n e t c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l co m p o n e n ts p l u s th e t r e n d a d ju s t m e n t f a c t o r of - 0 . 1 7 5 f o r th e c o i n c i d e n t index and 0 .0 1 8 f o r t h e la g g in g in d e x . COMPOSITE INDEXES (N ov.) P (Jan.) (July) P T (M a r.) T (July) P (N ov.) T Ratio scale - ,2 0 0 - 190 - 180 - 170 160 150 -1140 130 180 170 160 150 140 130 160 150 140 130 120 110 —»100 N OT E : P (peak) the end of The arrows in d ic a te s general in d ic a te b u sin e ss the the end of re ce ssio n le n g th of general b u sin ess and be ginnin g lead s the (-) and lags expansion of (+), and expansion . in m onths, the be ginnin g Thus, from the the of re cession; shaded bu sin e ss areas cycle T (trough) represent tu rn in g in d ic a te s re ce ssio n s, dates.
@FedFRASER