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NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 10:00 AM EDT, MONDAY, JUNE 13, 2011 Aya Hamano: Wali Osman: (202) 606-9683 (BEA) (202) 208-4292 (OIA) BEA 11-28 THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (BEA) RELEASES ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CHARLOTTE AMALIE, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS (June 13, 2011) -- Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is releasing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. Virgin Islands for 2008 and 2009. 1 This release also includes revised estimates for 2002 to 2007. 2 These estimates were developed under the Statistical Improvement Program funded by the Office of Insular Affairs (OIA) of the U.S. Department of the Interior. The estimates for the U.S. Virgin Islands show that real GDP -- GDP adjusted to remove price changes -decreased 5.6 percent in 2009 after decreasing 1.3 percent in 2008 (see Table 3). For comparison, real GDP for the U.S. (excluding the territories) decreased 2.6 percent in 2009 after remaining unchanged in 2008. In 2008 and 2009, the major industries in the private sector continued to be oil refining and tourism. 3 Petroleum products accounted for the vast majority of imports and exports of goods and of inventory investment during this period; tourism accounted for almost all of exports of services. 4 For 2008, the decrease in real GDP reflected an increase in imports of goods, primarily of petroleum products, and a decrease in consumer spending. 5 These decreases were partly offset by an increase in inventory investment for petroleum products. For 2009, real GDP declined for a second consecutive year, falling 5.6 percent. The drop in spending by tourists subtracted 1.5 percentage points from the 2009 change, decreasing 5.7 percent in 2009 after increasing 1.6 percent in 2008. A significant decrease in the number of visitors adversely impacted tourist-related services. Exports of petroleum fell in 2009, while consumer spending and fixed 1 These estimates are based on limited source data and are subject to revision. On May 5, 2010, BEA released estimates of GDP for the period 2002 to 2007 for the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam. 3 The Hovensa oil refinery, located on St. Croix, is one of the world’s largest oil refineries. 4 In this news release, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.” 5 Imports are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP. 2 - more - - 2investment both continued to decline for the third consecutive year. These decreases were partly offset by a decrease in imports of goods. Revisions Estimates for 2002 to 2007 that were released on May 5, 2010 have been revised in order to incorporate improvements to source data and estimation methodologies; these improvements include the following: • Incorporating newly available gross business receipts data from the U.S. Virgin Islands Bureau of Internal Revenue. These data were used to estimate consumer spending on services for years in which economic census data were not available. These data were also used to estimate consumer spending on certain types of goods, most notably jewelry. • Incorporating improved source data for expenditures in the U.S. Virgin Islands by foreign residents and for expenditures on foreign travel by U.S. Virgin Islands residents. The resulting revisions were offsetting between consumer spending and net exports of services; GDP was not impacted. • Incorporating newly available source data for government spending, including territorial government financial statements for fiscal year 2008 and data for federal military compensation. The revised estimates did not alter the previously published overall growth over the period. From 2002 to 2007, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent; in the previously published estimates, the rate of change also was 2.9 percent. Percent changes in real GDP from the preceding year -- revised and as published in last year's release -- are shown in Table 7. Methodology In constructing the estimates for the U.S. Virgin Islands, BEA used methodologies consistent with the methods used to estimate U.S. GDP. Information from the Economic Census of Island Areas was used to establish benchmark levels of GDP for the years 2002 and 2007. For other years, annual series were developed and used to estimate GDP. Because the U.S. Virgin Islands is not included in most of the major surveys used by BEA to estimate U.S. GDP, the support of government leaders in the U.S. Virgin Islands and the assistance provided by the Bureau of Economic Research, the Virgin Islands Bureau of Internal Revenue, and the Virgin Islands Department of Labor were critical to the successful production of the estimates presented in this release. BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry statistics; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. - more - U.S. Virgin Islands Table 1. Gross Domestic Product [Millions of dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 3,295 3,456 3,817 4,457 4,546 4,853 4,219 4,243 Personal consumption expenditures 2 1,613 1,703 1,836 2,065 2,246 2,247 2,235 2,267 Private fixed investment Change in private inventories 3 4 436 -73 303 27 354 33 446 -5 490 -30 435 -540 391 180 361 210 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 497 4,809 3,911 898 4,312 4,140 172 658 6,520 5,575 945 5,861 5,651 210 814 8,604 7,587 1,017 7,790 7,547 243 1,138 11,632 10,556 1,076 10,495 10,243 252 879 12,730 11,628 1,102 11,850 11,615 235 1,636 14,141 13,002 1,139 12,505 12,251 254 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 12 13 14 822 84 739 765 93 671 779 109 670 814 110 704 960 117 843 1,074 126 949 Gross domestic product NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. 316 253 18,412 10,787 17,255 9,696 1,157 1,091 18,095 10,534 17,861 10,310 234 225 1,098 134 964 1,152 150 1002 U.S. Virgin Islands Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars [Millions of chained (2005) dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 4,200 4,159 4,299 4,457 4,635 4,836 4,775 4,509 Personal consumption expenditures 2 1,781 1,829 1,906 2,065 2,189 2,076 1,882 1,879 Private fixed investment Change in private inventories 3 4 496 -161 336 49 375 46 446 -5 462 -26 397 -414 348 105 322 200 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 12 13 14 Addenda: Population (thousands)1 Per capita real GDP (chained dollars) 15 16 Gross domestic product 1,093 1,206 1,191 1,138 1,122 1,732 1,397 1,035 9,293 10,835 11,540 11,632 11,029 11,069 11,269 10,212 8,277 9,879 10,503 10,556 9,974 10,014 10,197 9,207 933 967 1,041 1,076 1,057 1,057 1,073 1,012 8,200 9,629 10,349 10,495 9,907 9,337 9,872 9,177 7,985 9,395 10,092 10,243 9,675 9,092 9,646 8,954 209 234 256 252 232 251 216 219 878 97 778 782 106 676 807 116 692 814 110 704 869 110 759 957 112 845 952 116 835 984 132 852 110.0 110.7 111.5 111.5 113.7 114.7 115.9 117.0 38,182 37,570 38,556 39,973 40,765 42,162 41,199 38,538 1. Source: 2009 U.S.Virgin Islands Annual Economic Indicators U.S. Virgin Islands Table 3. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Real Gross Domestic Product [Percent] Line Gross domestic product 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 -1.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 -1.3 -5.6 Personal consumption expenditures 2 2.7 4.2 8.4 6.0 -5.2 -9.3 -0.2 Private fixed investment Change in private inventories 3 4 -32.3 …….. 11.6 …….. 18.8 …….. 3.6 …….. -13.9 …….. -12.5 …….. -7.3 …….. Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 …….. 16.6 19.3 3.6 17.4 17.6 12.0 …….. 6.5 6.3 7.7 7.5 7.4 9.0 …….. 0.8 0.5 3.3 1.4 1.5 -1.6 …….. -5.2 -5.5 -1.8 -5.6 -5.6 -7.9 …….. 0.4 0.4 0.0 -5.8 -6.0 8.2 …….. 1.8 1.8 1.6 5.7 6.1 -13.7 …….. -9.4 -9.7 -5.7 -7.0 -7.2 1.4 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 12 13 14 -10.9 9.6 -13.2 3.2 9.4 2.3 0.8 -5.2 1.8 6.8 0.7 7.8 10.1 1.8 11.3 -0.6 3.5 -1.1 3.3 13.4 2.0 U.S. Virgin Islands Table 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product Line Percent change: Gross domestic product Percentage points: Personal consumption expenditures 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 -1.0 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.3 -1.3 -5.6 2 1.31 2.07 3.91 2.85 -2.59 -4.86 -0.10 Private fixed investment Change in private inventories 3 4 -4.22 3.12 1.01 -0.05 1.71 -1.08 0.37 -1.51 -0.51 -10.43 -1.21 17.34 -0.66 3.00 Net exports Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Federal Territorial 12 13 14 1.54 -0.36 25.48 13.35 24.50 11.29 0.98 2.06 -23.94 -13.72 -23.30 -13.17 -0.64 -0.55 -2.71 0.24 -2.95 0.69 0.26 0.44 -1.00 -0.06 1.97 -14.78 1.12 -14.33 0.85 -0.45 -2.97 14.71 -3.07 14.26 0.10 0.46 0.16 -0.14 0.30 1.33 0.02 1.31 16.72 -12.38 -8.66 1.06 6.50 -32.76 1.06 6.10 -31.24 0.00 0.40 -1.51 15.66 -18.88 24.09 16.08 -19.67 24.17 -0.42 0.79 -0.07 2.13 0.05 2.09 -0.14 0.10 -0.23 0.85 0.41 0.44 U.S. Virgin Islands Table 5. Percent Change From Preceding Year in Prices for Gross Domestic Product and Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product Line Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures 2002 2003 1 …….. 5.9 2 …….. 2.8 3 78.5 83.1 4 90.6 93.1 2004 6.8 2005 2006 2007 [Percent] 12.6 -1.9 2008 2009 2.3 -11.9 6.5 3.4 3.8 2.6 5.5 [Index numbers, 2005=100] 88.8 100.0 98.1 100.4 9.7 1.6 88.4 94.1 108.2 118.7 120.7 96.3 100.0 102.6 Table 6. Gross Domestic Income [Millions of dollars] Line 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Gross domestic income 1 3,295 3,456 3,817 4,457 4,546 4,853 4,219 4,243 Compensation of employees 2 1,704 1,697 1,798 1,945 2,086 2,196 2,241 2,170 Taxes on production and imports less subsidies 3 61 100 122 143 146 153 139 105 Gross operating surplus 4 1,530 1,659 1,897 2,369 2,313 2,505 1,839 1,967 2004 2005 2006 2007 NOTE. Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Table 7. Revisions to Percent Change in Real GDP Line 2003 Percent change: Revised Previously published 1 2 -1.0 -1.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.4 Percentage points: Revision 3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1
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