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e p p f A I ANALYSES BUDGET OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR 1984 E X E C U T I V E O F F I C E OF 1 HE PRESIDENT O F F I C E OF M A N A G E M E N T A N D B U D G E T THE BUDGET DOCUMENTS Budget of the United States Government, 1984 contains the Budget Message of the President and presents an overview of the President's budget proposals. It includes explanations of spending programs in terms of national needs, agency missions, and basic programs, and an analysis of estimated receipts, including a discussion of the President's tax program. This document also contains a description of the budget system and various summary tables on the budget as a whole. United States Budget in Brief, 1984 is designed for use by the general public. It provides a more concise, less technical overview of the 1984 budget than the above volume. Summary and historical tables on the Federal budget and debt are also provided, together with graphic displays. Budget of the United States Government, 1984—Appendix contains detailed information on the various appropriations and funds that comprise the budget. The Appendix contains more detailed information than any of the other budget documents. It includes for each agency: the proposed text of appropriation language, budget schedules for each account, new legislative proposals, explanations of the work to be performed and the funds needed, proposed general provisions applicable to the appropriations of entire agencies or groups of agencies, and schedules of permanent positions. Supplemental and rescission proposals for the current year are presented separately. Information is also provided on certain activities whose outlays are not part of the budget totals. Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, 1984 contains analyses that are designed to highlight specified program areas or provide other significant presentations of Federal budget data. This document includes information about:' alternative views of the budget, i.e., current services and national income accounts; economic and financial analyses of the budget covering Government finances and operations as a whole; and Government-wide program and financial information for Federal civil rights and research and development programs. Instructions for purchasing copies of any of these documents are on the last two pages of this volume. GENERAL NOTES 1. All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. 2. Detail in the tables, text, and charts of this volume may not add to the totals because of rounding. For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PART 1. ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE BUDGET A. Current services estimates B. Federal transactions in the national income accounts 1-1 A-l B-l PART 2. ANALYSES OF THE BUDGET TOTALS C. Funds in the budget D. Investment, operating, and other Federal outlays E. Borrowing and debt F. Federal credit programs G. Tax expenditures H. Federal aid to State and local governments I. Civilian employment in the executive branch 2-1 C-l D-l E-l F-l G-l H-l 1-1 PART 3. SELECTED FEDERAL PROGRAMS J. Civil rights activities K. Research and development 3-1 J-l K-l iii PART 1 ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE BUDGET 1-1 INTRODUCTION Part 1 includes two alternative views of the budget—current services estimates and national income accounts. These special analyses are designated A and B. Special Analysis A (Current Services Estimates) presents the estimates required by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (31 U.S.C. 1109(a)). These estimates reflect the anticipated costs of continuing ongoing Federal programs and activities at present levels without policy changes (that is, ignoring all new initiatives, Presidential or congressional, that are not yet law). Special Analysis B (Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts) presents the Federal budget estimates in terms of the national income accounts. It also explains the relationships of the unified budget of the Federal Government to the national income and product accounts, which constitute the most widely used measure of aggregate economic activity in the United States. 1-2 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires that the President submit to the Congress estimates of the outlays and budget authority needed to maintain current Government services and activity levels. The Act defines the current services levels as . . . the estimated outlays and proposed budget authority which would be included in the Budget to be submitted pursuant to section 201 of the Budget and Accounting Act, 1921, for the ensuing fiscal year if all programs and activities were carried on during such ensuing fiscal year at the same level as the fiscal year in progress and without policy changes in such programs and activities. The Act further requires the President to submit the economic and programmatic assumptions underlying the estimates and calls for the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress to review and evaluate the estimates. Since current services estimates show what outlays, receipts, and budget authority would be if no policy changes were made, they provide a base with which the administration's budget proposals, or other proposals, may be compared. Such comparisons are made in various parts of the budget and serve to highlight the effects of recommended policy changes.1 Since interest in the longer term budget outlook and in the longrange effects of the President's budget proposals has increased substantially in recent years, current services estimates are being provided for the 4 years beyond the budget year. These long-range current services estimates are based on the same concepts as the budget year current services estimates. The current services estimates are based on the same economic assumptions as the President's budget proposals. Changes in economic conditions significantly affect budget estimates because of their effects on tax receipts, unemployment benefits, and other programs under which spending varies with the unemployment, interest, or inflation rates. As a result, if different economic assumptions were used, it would be very difficult to separate the 'Summary comparisons are in the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, Part 3. A-1 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 effects of policy differences from the effects of differences in the economic assumptions. The economic assumptions assume that all the President's budget proposals will be adopted. Continuation of all programs and tax laws unchanged at current services levels would result in different economic conditions than would occur under the budget proposals. The economic assumptions common to the budget and the current services estimates are summarized in table A - l . For further details and discussion of these economic assumptions, see Part 2, in the 1984 Budget Table A - l . SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (Calendar years) Gross national product (in billions of current dollars) Change in constant dollar GNP (percent change, year over year) Inflation measures (percent change, fiscal year over fiscal year): GNP deflator Consumer Price Index Federal nondefense non-pay purchases deflator State and local purchases deflator Unemployment rate (percent, fourth quarter) Interest rate, 91-day Treasury bills (percent) Federal pay raise, October (percent) 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 3,058 3,262 3,566 3,890 4,232 4,599 4,995 -1.8 1.4 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 7.2 5.0 4.9 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 7.0 7.5 5.0 6.3 5.3 6.4 4.9 6.1 4.7 5.9 4.5 5.7 4.5 5.7 10.5 10.4 9.5 8.5 7.8 7.0 6.2 10.7 4.0 8.0 6.5 7.9 6.1 7.4 6.0 6.8 5.7 6.5 5.6 6.1 5.5 THE CURRENT SERVICES CONCEPT The current services estimates are neither recommended amounts nor forecasts as to what the budget results for 1983-1988 will actually be. Rather, they provide a base against which budgetary alternatives may be assessed. This base embodies the cumulative effects of all past congressional and presidential budgetary choices. Since the estimates indicate the budgetary implications of the current directions of Federal programs, they in effect answer the question: "How would the budget come out if we simply left the Federal Government on automatic pilot for the next 5 years?" The guiding principle in establishing a conceptual basis for the current services estimates was to make the results useful to the Congress and the public. The current services concepts used in this analysis, and in previous current services estimates submitted by the executive branch, are not the only concepts possible. Different concepts may be useful for different purposes. Under the current concepts, the current services estimates generally reflect the ex- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll pected costs of continuing ongoing Federal programs at 1983 levels in real terms, without policy change; that is, they omit all proposed and pending new initiatives, presidential or congressional, that are not now enacted. (The major exception to this approach is for the Department of Defense, as described below.) In general, the 1983 level on which the current services estimates are based is that which is authorized or implied by enacted 1983 appropriations or continuing resolutions. The estimates allow for the future implications of current law, and for anticipated changes of a relatively uncontrollable nature (as distinct from policy changes)—such as increases in the number of social security retirees. The current services estimates reflect the effects of inflation on virtually all budget accounts, including discretionary programs. The current services estimates thus provide a "constant real program'' base against which to measure the President's budget proposals. Specific guidelines for this year's detailed programmatic estimates are: —For the Department of Defense—military, the estimates for 1983 are based on the enacted levels resulting from last year's actions by the Congress. For 1984-87, the estimates are those presented by the administration and used by the Congress in last year's budget deliberations. The 1988 estimates were developed consistent with this baseline. This baseline is believed to be the most useful one for measuring the effects of policy changes in the defense area. —For entitlement programs (such as social security), the current services estimates take into account inflation adjustments that are mandatory under current law, changes in the benefit base (usually determined by past earnings), and changes in the anticipated numbers of beneficiaries. —Individual grants to State and local governments are assumed to support the same program levels or to be funded at the same real (constant-dollar) amounts as in 1983 unless the grants are: (a) set by law at specified amounts; (b) tied by legislation to cost-of-living increases or the unemployment rate; (c) affected by changes in beneficiary populations or other factors that affect benefit payments under entitlement programs; or (d) affected by spending from prior-year commitments (for example, highway grants). —Entitlement programs that are not linked by law to the cost-ofliving (such as veterans compensation) are assumed to remain level in real (constant-dollar) amounts except for changes in the benefit base and in the number of people eligible. —Procurement and construction activities are assumed to proceed in an orderly fashion, consistent with current law and A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 past appropriation levels. Outlays for these programs are largely determined by prior-year contracts and obligations. Some appropriations provide for anticipated inflation in the cost of multiyear projects. In other cases, however, current services estimates may reflect constraints on spending levels imposed by available funding. —Outlays for Federal pay are assumed to increase at rates comparable to private sector pay. The pay raise assumptions are shown in table A-1. —Interest on the public debt is estimated on the basis of the current services deficits and the same interest rate assumptions as are used in computing the budget estimates for interest. —Offsetting receipts are estimated on the basis of judgment as to their most likely level, assuming no change in current law. —Budget authority for certain major trust funds consists of trust fund receipts. These are estimated using standard revenue estimating techniques. —Proposed rescissions of budget authority are not reflected. —It is assumed that deferral actions continue in effect for the period specified in the special message transmitted to the Congress under the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (unless they have been overturned by the Congress). Many Federal programs are authorized for a limited number of years, but are routinely renewed. If authority for such a program is scheduled to expire before or during the projection period, it is assumed for purposes of current services estimates that it will be renewed. Programs that are clearly temporary in nature, such as temporary study commissions, are assumed to expire. The estimates of receipts on a current services basis assume that future tax changes will occur as scheduled under current law. Provisions that are clearly temporary in nature are assumed to expire. Table A-2. CURRENT SERVICES TOTALS (In billions of dollars) Budget authority Receipts Outlays Deficit ( - ) 1982 actual 1983 1984 779.9 828.4 617.8 728.4 597.5 806.1 1985 1986 1987 1988 954.8 1,056.3 1,152.5 1.245.7 1,370.4 648.8 880.3 713.3 966.4 780.9 1,051.7 849.1 1.140.8 926.7 1,227.0 -110.6 -208.5 -231.5 -253.1 -270.8 -291.7 -300.4 Memorandum: 16.4 16.9 17.1 14.2 13.6 15.1 17.3 Off-budget outlays Deficit ( - ) including off-budget outlays. - 1 2 7 . 9 - 2 2 5 . 4 - 2 4 8 . 5 - 2 6 7 . 3 - 2 8 4 . 4 - 3 0 8 . 1 - 3 1 5 . 4 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll CURRENT SERVICES TOTALS Current services outlays are estimated to be $880.3 billion in 1984, 9.2% higher than in 1983, and budget authority is estimated to be $954.8 billion, an increase of 15.3% over 1983. Outlays are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.7% from 1984 to 1988. Receipts for 1984 are estimated to increase 8.6% on a current services basis, from $597.5 billion in 1983 to $648.8 billion in 1984. Receipts are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.3% from 1984 to 1988. The resulting 1984 current services deficit is $231.5 billion, $22.9 billion higher than the $208.5 billion deficit for 1983. The deficit is projected to increase during the projection period to a peak of $300.4 billion in 1988. Receipts.—Table A-3 shows receipts by major source on a current services basis. Current services receipts are projected to increase by $51.3 billion from 1983 to 1984 and by $277.9 billion from 1984 to 1988, largely due to assumed increases in incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation. Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $10.6 billion from 1983 to 1984 on a current services basis. This growth of 3.7% is the effect of increased collections resulting from rising personal incomes and the provisions of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA), partially offset by the individual income tax reductions provided in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA). The reductions in individual income taxes provided in ERTA are estimated to increase from $65.9 billion in 1983 to $104.5 billion in 1984. Individual income taxes are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.9% between 1984 and 1988, to $430.8 billion. Corporation income taxes on a current services basis are estimated to grow by $16.6 billion or 47.1% from 1983 to 1984. This growth is the net effect of higher corporate profits, increased collections due to the tax revisions and improvements in collection and enforcement provided in TEFRA, and the accelerated cost recovery of capital expenditures provided in ERTA. Corporation income taxes are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 14.3% from 1984 to 1988. Social insurance taxes and contributions are estimated to increase by $21.4 billion on a current services basis between 1983 and 1984, and by an additional $108.5 billion between 1984 and 1988. The estimates reflect assumed increases in total wages and salaries paid; scheduled increases in the combined employer-employee social security (OASDHI) tax rate to 14.1% on January 1, 1985 and to 14.3% on January 1, 1986; and annual increases in the social security taxable earnings base to $47,100 in 1988. A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 On a current services basis, excise taxes are estimated to increase by $3.1 billion or 8.3% from 1983 to 1984. This growth is in large part due to the increases in excise taxes on airport and airway users, cigarettes, and telephone service provided in TEFRA; and the 5 cent per gallon increase in the excise tax on gasoline and diesel fuel, and other provisions of the Highway Revenue Act of 1982. This growth is partially offset by a $1.5 billion decline in windfall profit taxes from $13.8 billion in 1983 to $12.2 billion in 1984. Excise taxes are projected to decline by $3.7 billion between 1984 and 1988 to an estimated $36.6 billion. This is in large part due to the expiration of the temporary doubling of cigarette excise taxes effective October 1, 1985; the termination of telephone excise taxes effective January 1, 1986; and the continued decline in windfall profit tax receipts to $9.2 billion in 1988. The 1988 estimate assumes extension of the airport and airway trust fund taxes that are scheduled to expire December 31, 1987. Other receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous receipts) are projected to decline on a current services basis by $0.4 billion from 1983 to 1984 and to increase by $1.5 billion from 1984 to 1988, largely as a result of increased economic activity. Table A-3. CURRENT SERVICES RECEIPTS BY SOURCE (In billions of dollars) Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions Excise taxes Other Total 1982 actual 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 297.7 49.2 201.5 36.3 33.0 285.2 35.3 210.3 37.3 29.4 295.8 51.9 231.7 40.4 29.0 321.4 60.8 260.7 40.8 29.6 348.0 75.7 290.9 36.7 29.5 383.0 85.8 314.0 36.3 30.0 430.8 88.6 340.2 36.6 30.6 617.8 597.5 648.8 713.3 780.9 849.1 926.7 Outlays.—The level of outlays necessary to continue ongoing Federal programs and activities at 1983 levels without policy changes is estimated at $880.3 billion in 1984. The increase in current services outlays from 1983 to 1984 is $74.2 billion, or 9.2%. Between 1984 and 1988 current services outlays are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 8.7%. Table A-4 shows current services outlays by function. Estimates by agency are presented in table A-5. The outlay increases from 1983 to 1984 are largely due to increases in the number of beneficiaries, cost-of-living adjustments, increases in the prices of goods and services purchased or financed and, in the case of interest, increased borrowing requirements. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-4. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION (In billions of dollars) 1982 actual National defense International affairs General science, space, and technology Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit, Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social servicesHealth Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance Net interest Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Increased employer share, employee retirement Contingencies for uncontrollable programs Undistributed offsetting receipts: Employer share, employee retirement Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf. Federal surplus property disposition Total outlays Memorandum: Off-budget outlays Total, including off-budget outlays 187.4 10.0 7.1 4.7 12.9 14.9 3.9 20.6 7.2 26.3 74.0 248.3 24.0 4.7 4.7 6.4 84.7 Current services 1983 estimate 214.6 11.7 7.8 4.6 12.0 21.7 2.0 21.9 7.4 26.8 82.3 282.8 24.5 5.3 5.9 6.4 89.0 1984 estimate 253.7 12.8 8.1 4.1 11.2 15.3 2.1 26.1 7.2 27.1 92.9 289.7 26.1 5.5 5.9 7.2 105.2 1984 administration proposals 245.3 13.2 8.2 3.3 9.8 12.1 .4 25.1 7.0 25.3 90.6 282.4 25.7 5.5 6.0 7.0 103.2 1.9 -7.0 -6.2 -8.2 -11.8 -8.9 -11.9 -.4 1984 difference -8.4 .4 .2 -.7 -1.4 -3.2 -1.6 -.9 - . 2 -1.8 -2.3 -7.3 - . 3* .1 -.2 -2.0 -1.9 .9 -9.9 -11.9 -.9 -1.0 -l 728.4 806.1 880.3 848.5 -31.8 17.3 745.7 16.9 823.0 17.1 897.3 14.0 862.5 -3.0 -34.8 *$50 million or less. Table A-6 shows the major components of the changes in current services outlays between 1983 and 1984. Outlays for income security programs are estimated to rise by $6.9 billion, from $282.8 billion in 1983 to $289.7 billion in 1984 due to automatic cost-ofliving increases in many benefit programs, increases in the number of beneficiaries, and higher earnings records for new retirees. Social security outlays are estimated to increase by $12.1 billion and unemployment compensation outlays are estimated to decrease by $6.2 billion between 1983 and 1984. Outlays for the remaining income security programs are estimated to grow by $1.1 billion on net. Table A-7 shows caseload projections for these and other major benefit programs and other selected programmatic assumptions. Under the administration's February 1982 policy, outlays for the military functions of the Department of Defense in 1984 would have been $38.2 billion higher than enacted 1983 levels. A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-5. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY (In billions of dollars) lSbz actual Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds Appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Military Department of Defense—Civil Education Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Office of Personnel Management Other independent agencies Allowances Undistributed offsetting receipts Total outlays Memorandum: Off-budget outlays Total, including off-budget outlays Current services 1983 estimate 1.4 .7 .1 6.1 36.2 2.0 182.9 3.0 14.1 7.6 251.3 14.5 3.9 2.6 30.7 2.2 19.9 110.5 5.1 6.0 23.9 20.0 13.1 1.5 .8 .1 7.1 45.6 2.0 208.8 2.9 14.4 8.8 276.4 15.0 4.0 3.0 41.2 2.3 21.1 117.6 4.4 6.7 24.4 21.5 12.5 -29.3 728.4 17.3 745.7 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 1984 difference * -36.2 1.6 .9 .1 7.6 39.1 2.0 247.0 2.7 14.3 9.5 296.6 15.1 3.9 3.0 34.8 2.6 25.3 136.2 4.1 6.9 26.0 23.6 13.0 1.9 -37.6 1.6 .9 .1 7.9 35.0 1.7 238.6 2.2 13.5 8.8 288.8 13.7 3.6 3.3 34.3 2.6 24.4 135.0 4.1 7.0 25.7 23.2 11.4 .9 -39.6 806.1 880.3 848.5 -31.8 16.9 823.0 17.1 897.3 14.0 862.5 -3.0 -34.8 * * .3 -4.1 -.4 -8.4 -.5 -.8 -.6 -7.8 -1.3 -.3 .3 -.5 * -.9 -1.2 -.1 * -.3 -.5 -1.6 -.9 -2.0 *$50 million or less. Current services outlays for medicare are estimated to increase by $8.5 billion between 1983 and 1984, largely as a result of increases in medical care prices and utilization. Medicaid outlays are estimated to increase by $1.7 billion for the same reason. Other major increases in current services outlays between 1983 and 1984 include an increase in net interest of $16.2 billion and $4.2 billion for transportation programs. The $6.4 billion decline in current services outlays for Agriculture between 1983 and 1984 results from a sharply lower estimate of outlays required in 1984 for price supports and related Commodity Credit Corporation programs. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-6. CHANGE IN CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS, 1983 TO 1984 (In billions of dollars) Budget authority 1983 current services estimate 1983-84 changes: National defense-. Department of Defense—Military Other national defense Subtotal, National defense Income security: Social security Federal employee retirement and disability. Unemployment compensation Housing assistance Food and nutrition assistance Other income security programs Subtotal, income security International affairs General science, space, and technology Energy programs Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation programs Community and regional development Education Training and employment Social and other labor services Medicare and medicaid Other health programs Veterans programs Net interest Allowances for civilian agency pay raises Undistributed offsetting receipts All other programs, net 828.4 46.2 1.1 47.3 29.5 1.0* 7.6 -.3 -.7 37.1 .6 .2 .3 -.4 -7.2 .8 1.9 .2 24.4 .4 1.2 16.2 2.0 -1.2 1.3 Subtotal, changes 126.4 1984 current services estimate 954.8 Memorandum: 1983 off-budget current services estimates... Changes in off-budget entities 1984 off-budget current services estimates... Total, including off-budget entities 29.8 4.6 34.3 989.2 *$50 million or less. Budget authority.—Current services budget authority is estimated to total $954.8 billion in 1984, $126.4 billion more than in 1983. Increases in budget authority between 1983 and 1984 generally reflect the higher funding levels that would be necessary to maintain 1983 services levels in real terms in 1984. In the case of most trust funds, however, the funds' receipts automatically become budget authority; thus increases in budget authority for these funds simply reflect year-to-year growth in expected receipts. A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-7. CASELOADS AND PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS Fiscal years 1983 Beneficiaries (annual average, in thousands): Social security (OASDI) Railroad retirement1 Federal civil service retirees Military retirees Veterans compensation Veterans pensions Gl bill Disabled coal miners Supplemental security income Maintenance assistance (AFDC) Food stamps Housing subsidy recipients (HUD) Medicaid Medicare: Hospital insurance Supplementary medical insurance Automatic benefit increases (percent): Social security and veterans pensions (July) : Federal employee retirement (March) 2 : Over 62 Under 62 Food stamps (October) Interest rate (91-day bills, percent, fiscal years) 4 Unemployment rate (percent, annual average, fiscal years): Total Insured 5 Strategic petroleum reserves fill (millions of barrels) 6 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 36,026 990 1,394 1,423 2,616 1,745 804 435 3,452 10,967 21,950 3,671 22,233 36,444 976 1,452 1,454 2,612 1,660 652 413 3,361 10,905 21,540 3,923 22,584 37,051 963 1,505 1,484 2,608 1,585 565 394 3,280 10,782 20,630 4,081 22,584 37,732 949 1,558 1,512 2,605 1,535 458 373 3,207 10,703 19,820 4,180 22,584 38,436 934 1,616 1,539 2,604 1,495 386 354 3,143 10,608 19,150 4,283 22,584 39,120 919 1,674 1,565 2,601 1,455 322 334 3,085 10,521 18,450 4,377 22,584 29,185 28,742 29,682 29,265 30,225 29,841 30,831 30,464 31,459 31,087 32,068 31,684 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.6 3.3 0.4 4.9 3.6 4.7 4.4 3.3 5.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 8.0 8.0 7.6 6.9 6.6 6.2 10.7 5.4 10.1 4.9 9.1 4.3 8.3 3.9 7.5 3.6 6.7 3.2 80.3 80.3 61.5 45.2 90.6 44.8 3 End of year. 2 Under current law, benefit increases for retired Federal employees will occur in April 1983, May 1984, and June 1985. Thereafter, the increases would occur in March of each year. 3 The increase based on the actual December 1982 CPI is 3.9%. "Average rate on new issues within period. These estimates assume, by convention, that interest rates decline with the rate of inflation. They do not represent a forecast of interest rates. 5 This measures unemployment under State regular unemployment insurance as a percentage of covered employment under that program. It does not include recipients of extended benefits under that program. 6 Annual petroleum fill. 1 Budget authority for some programs display erratic year-to-year changes due to sporadic funding patterns or advance funding. Tables A-8 and A-9 show the estimates of current services budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. The major components of the changes in current services budget authority between 1983 and 1984 are also shown in table A-6. Increases in budget authority of $37.1 billion for income security and $24.8 billion for health are primarily due to higher social security and medicare trust fund receipts and higher medicaid costs. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-8. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION (In billions of dollars) 1982 actual National defense International affairs General science, space, and technology Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services.... Health Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance Net interest Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Increased employer share, employee retirement Contingencies for uncontrollable programs Undistributed offsetting receipts: Employer share, employee retirement Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf.. Federal surplus property disposition Total budget authority.. 218.7 15.3 7.1 3.3 Current services 1983 estimate 11.2 244.5 16.3 7.9 3.7 11.2 18.8 6.4 21.3 6.6 25.9 78.9 254.2 25.0 4.7 5.0 6.4 84.7 5.1 26.7 6.8 26.4 67.6 280.5 25.0 5.2 5.8 6.4 89.0 20.8 1984 estimate 291.8 16.8 8.1 4.1 10.8 13.6 5.9 28.6 7.0 27.8 92.3 317.7 26.2 5.5 6.0 7.2 105.2 1984 administration proposals 1984 difference 280.5 -11.3 16.8 8.5 2.9 8.9 13.5 7.6 27.8 6.1 25.6 91.7 284.2 26.1 5.6 -8.2 -6.2 -11.8 7.0 103.2 828.4 -33 -2 -2.0 -8.9 -11.9 -9.9 -11.9 954.8 900.1 -.4 779.9 - 2 6.1 2.0 -7.0 -1 -1 -1.0 -54.7 * $50 million or less. A $46.2 billion increase in budget authority for the Department of Defense—Military baseline reflects the increase in pay for military and civilian personnel and increases in defense purchases that would have occurred under the administration's February 1982 policy. Budget authority for net interest increases by $16.2 billion because of higher borrowing requirements. Other major changes in current services budget authority include a $2.0 billion increase for allowances for civilian agency pay raises; a $0.6 billion increase in education programs; a $1.9 billion increase in transportation programs; and a $1.2 billion increase for veterans programs. 380-700 O - 83 - 2 QL : 3 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-9. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY (In billions of dollars) Current services actual Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds Appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Military Department of Defense—Civil Education Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Office of Personnel Management Other independent agencies Allowances Undistributed offsetting receipts 1983 estimate 1.4 .7 .1 8.5 40.6 1.8 213.8 3.0 14.7 7.9 246.2 20.1 3.7 2.6 27.2 2.6 20.5 111.3 3.7 6.0 24.9 32.6 15.2 1.5 .8 .1 9.7 44.3 1.7 238.4 2.9 14.2 8.4 252.4 12.3 3.8 2.9 36.4 2.7 25.9 117.8 3.7 6.8 25.0 36.0 16.7 -29.3 779.9 Total budget authority 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals -36.2 1.6 .9 .1 10.1 37.3 1.9 284.7 2.7 14.8 10.0 305.2 20.3 3.9 3.0 36.1 2.8 27.8 136.3 3.8 7.0 26.1 37.3 16.8 2.0 -37.6 1.6 .9 .1 9.8 39.2 1.4 273.4 2.1 13.1 8.9 285.2 4.1 3.4 3.4 36.3 2.9 27.0 135.1 3.6 7.1 26.1 38.3 15.6 .9 -39.6 828.4 954.8 900.1 1984 difference * _ * * -.3 1.9 -.5 -11.3 -.6 -1.7 -1.1 -20.0 -16.2 -.5 .4 .2 .1 — .8 -1.2 -.2 .1 _ * 1.0 -1.2 -1.0 -2.0 -54.7 *$50 million or less. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT BUDGET SERVICES ESTIMATES AND PROPOSALS The administration's budget proposals differ from the current services estimates in four broad ways: —The budget proposals include an immediate freeze on pay, costof-living adjustments, aggregate discretionary spending and a variety of reimbursement formulas and payments. —The budget proposals include a broad program of structural reform of entitlements and transfer payments focused on health care, social security solvency, and means-tested benefits. —The budget proposals include defense savings due to lower inflation, the 1984 pay freeze, and various program economies. —The budget proposals include various revenue proposals that would increase revenues above the current services level during 1984-1988. Also included is a standby revenue mechanism designed to trigger in if the deficit remains above 2%% of gross national product in 1986 and beyond. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A For 1983, the estimates of budget authority under the administration proposals exceed current services by $19.0 billion. The administration proposals include the recommendation of the National Commission on Social Security Reform for a lump-sum payment to the social security trust funds of $20.5 billion in 1983. Outlays under the administration proposals are $0.9 billion below current services. The 1983 receipts estimate under the administration proposals are below current services by less than $0.1 billion. The deficit under administration proposals is $0.8 billion lower than that under current services. For 1984, the administration estimate of outlays is $31.8 billion below the current services level, and budget authority is $54.7 billion below the current services level. The current services receipts level for 1984 is $10.9 billion below the administration's estimate of $659.7 billion. The 1984 current services deficit of $231.5 billion exceeds the administration's estimated deficit by $42.7 billion. By 1988, the current services estimates of budget authority and outlays exceed the administration budget request by $118.7 billion and $100.1 billion, respectively. The 1988 receipts estimate under the administration proposals exceeds the current services estimate by $83.6 billion. The deficit for 1988 under the administration proposals is estimated to be $183.7 billion lower than the current services deficit for that year. Table A-10. SUMMARY OF CURRENT SERVICES AND PROPOSED BUDGET TOTALS (In billions of dollars) 1982 actual Budget authority: Current services Effect of proposalsAdministration budgetReceipts: Current services Effect of proposalsAdministration budgetOutlays: Current services Effect of proposals .. Administration budget.. Deficit (— >: Current services Effect of proposals.. Administration budget.. Off-budget outlays: Current services Effect of proposals .. Administration budget.., *$50 million or less. 779.9 Estimate 1983 1984 1986 1987 779.9 828.4 19.0 847.4 954.8 -54.7 900.1 1,056.3 -59.0 997.4 1.152.5 -72.9 1.079.6 1,245.7 -83.0 1.162.7 617.8 597.5 617.8 597.5 648.8 10.9 659.7 713.3 11.0 724.3 780.9 61.0 841.9 849.1 67.3 916.3 728.4 806.1 -.9 805.2 880.3 -31.8 848.5 966.4 -47.9 918.5 1.051.7 1.140.8 -82.4 1,058.4 728.4 -110.6 -110.6 17.3 17.3 -62.1 989.6 -208.5 - 2 3 1 . 5 - 2 5 3 . 1 - 2 7 0 . 8 - 2 9 1 . 7 0.8 58.9 123.2 149.6 42.7 -207.7 -188.8 - 1 9 4 . 2 - 1 4 7 . 7 - 1 4 2 . 1 16.9 .1 17.0 17.1 -3.0 14.0 14.2 -3.7 10.5 13.6 -4.1 9.4 16.4 -6.8 9.6 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Receipts.—As shown in table A - l l , the administration's estimate of receipts for 1983 is the same as the current services level of $597.5 billion. Current services receipts for 1984 are estimated at $648.8 billion, $10.9 billion below the administration's estimate. The proposed bipartisan social security plan, designed to ensure the future solvency of the social security trust funds, accounts for $8.2 billion of the increase in 1984 receipts above the current services level. Other legislative proposals, which include the taxation of employer-paid health insurance premiums in excess of a specified level, increases in contributions to Civil Service retirement, tax incentives for the redevelopment of economically distressed areas, a tuition tax credit, and a jobs tax credit for the long-term unemployed, increase receipts by an additional $2.9 billion.1 These increases are partially offset by the effect of the administration's proposed October 1983 Federal employee pay freeze, which reduces Federal employee retirement contributions by $0.3 billion below the current services level. By 1988 the administration's legislative proposals, including a proposed contingency tax plan, are estimated to increase receipts $83.9 billion above the current services level. Table A - l l . ESTIMATED EFFECT OF PROPOSED LEGISLATION AND ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION ON RECEIPTS (In billions of dollars) 1984 1985 597.5 648.8 -.3 648.5 713.3 -.3 713.1 780.9 -.3 780.6 849.1 -.3 848.8 926.7 -.3 926.4 597.5 8.2 2.3 1.2 -.1 -.2 -_. *2 8.9 6.0 2.1 -.8 -.8 -.1 - . 2* 10.7 8.0 1.9 -1.1 -.8 22.3 10.7 1.7 -1.1 -_. *8 * 5.8 4.4 2.3 -.4 -.5 -.2 - . 1* 11.2 11.3 1983 Current services receipts estimates Administrative action 1 Receipts under existing legislation Proposed changes: Bi-partisan social security plan Taxation of health insurance premiums Contributions to Civil Service Retirement.. Enterprise zone tax incentives Tuition tax credit Jobs tax credit Higher education tax incentive Other Subtotal of above changes _ * _ * Contingency tax plan Total proposed changes Receipts under existing and proposed legislation 1986 1987 _ * 1988 - . 3* -.4 * 15.3 18.5 32.5 46.0 49.0 51.4 _ * 11.2 11.3 61.3 67.5 83.9 597.5 659.7 724.3 841.9 916.3 1,010.3 *$50 million or less. ^ h e effect of the proposed October 1983 Federal employee pay freeze on Federal employee retirement contributions. 'A more detailed discussion of the administration's receipts proposals is presented in the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, Part 4, "Budget Receipts." SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Outlays.—Table A-12 shows the major differences between the administration's budget and current services for outlays by function.1 —The administration proposals for national defense would reduce outlays below the defense baseline by $8.4 billion in 1984. By 1988 defense outlays would be $11.0 billion below the defense baseline. —The administration proposals for the Commodity Credit Corporation's price support programs would reduce outlays below current services by $3.1 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $5.3 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for ground transportation would reduce outlays below current services by $1.0 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $3.5 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for education programs would reduce outlays below current services by $0.8 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $4.0 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for training and employment and social services programs would reduce outlays below current services by $1.0 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $3.5 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for medicare would reduce outlays below current services by $1.7 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for medicare would be $9.0 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for medicaid and other health programs would reduce outlays below current services by $0.6 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $3.5 billion below current services. —The administration proposals for social security embody the proposals recommended by the National Commission on Social Security Reform. The proposals would reduce social security outlays below current services by $4.1 billion in 1984. By 1988 these proposals would reduce social security outlays by $5.7 billion. —The administration proposals for Federal employee retirement and other general retirement and disability would reduce outlays below current services by $1.2 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $4.4 billion below current services. 1 A more detailed discussion of the administration's budget authority and outlay proposals is presented in the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984, Part 5, "Meeting National Needs: The Federal Program by Function." A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 —The administration proposals for food and nutrition and housing assistance and other income security programs would reduce outlays below current services by $1.9 billion in 1984. By 1988 outlays for these programs would be $4.7 billion below current services. —The administration's proposed 1984 pay freeze for Federal employees reduces allowances for civilian agency pay raises by $1.9 billion in 1984. By 1988, outlays would be reduced by $2.4 billion. —The administration proposals would reduce the budget deficit by $42.7 billion below current services in 1984. By 1988 the deficit would be $183.7 billion lower. These reductions and other proposals would reduce net interest outlays below current services by $2.0 billion in 1984. By 1988 net interest outlays would be $32.9 billion lower. —Reductions below current services in other budget functions primarily reflect the effects of the aggregate discretionary program freeze proposed by the administration. In total, the administration proposals would reduce outlays below current services by $31.8 billion in 1984. By 1988 budget outlay savings would be $100.1 billion. The combined effects of the administration's on- and off-budget outlay and receipts proposals would reduce the total deficit below current services by $45.7 billion in 1984. By 1988 these proposals reduce the total deficit by $189.5 billion. The cumulative deficit reduction between 1983 and 1988 including off-budget savings is $582.2 billion. Table A-12. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT SERVICES AND ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST (Outlays; in billions of dollars) Current services estimates Differences: National defense: Department of Defense—Military Other Subtotal, national defense International affairs: Foreign economic and financial assistance International security assistance: Military assistance Other Subtotal, international security assistance 1986 1987 1988 966.4 1,051.7 1,140.8 1,227.0 - 8_. *4 -8.0 -0.1 -9.1 -0.1 - 1 0 . 4* - 1 1 . 1# -8.4 -8.1 -9.2 -10.4 -11.0 * _* -0.1 -0.2 1983 1984 1985 806.1 880.3 _ * _ * * • 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2* 0.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.4 -0.7 0.2 0.2 * -0.1 -0.3 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table A-12. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT SERVICES AND ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST— Continued (Outlays; in billions of dollars) 1984 1983 Conduct of foreign affairs Foreign information and exchange activities International financial programs 0.1 _* 1985 1986 1987 1988 * 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2* 0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 _ * -0.5 _ * Subtotal, international affairs 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 General science, space, and technology.... _* 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.2 -0.6 _* -3.1 -0.1 -5.9 -0.2 -6.8 -0.3 -7.6 -0.3 -5.3 -0.4 -0.6 -3.2 -6.1 -7.0 -7.9 -5.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -1.3 -0.6 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.6 -2.4 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 * * * -1.0 0.2 - 0 . 1* -1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.1 -1.8 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -2.5 0.7 -0.2 0.1 -3.5 0.8 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3 -1.9 -3.0 _ * -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 _ * - 0 . 1* -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -1.7 -0.9 -0.8 -2.5 -1.2 -1.1 -3.3 -1.4 -1.4 -4.0 -1.7 -1.7 -0.1 -1.8 -3.4 -4.8 -6.1 -7.4 * _* * -1.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -3.1 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -4.7 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -6.7 -0.7 -1.2 -0.9 -9.0 -0.7 -1.6 -1.2 * -2.3 -4.9 -7.1 -9.6 -12.4 -2.1 -4.1 -0.8 -4.6 -1.8 -4.9 -1.1 -5.4 -1.8 -5.7 -1.4 Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture: Farm income stabilization Agricultural research and services Subtotal, agriculture Commerce and housing credit: Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Postal service Other advancement of commerce Subtotal, credit commerce and housing Transportation: Ground transportation Air transportation Water transportation Other transportation Subtotal, transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services: Education Training and employment Social services and other Subtotal, education, training, employment, and social services.,. Health: Medicare Medicaid Other health care services Other health Subtotal, health Income security: Social security Other general retirement and disability * A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-12. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT SERVICES AND ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST— Continued (Outlays; in billions of dollars) 1984 1983 Federal employee retirement and disability Unemployment compensation Housing assistance Food and nutrition assistance Other income security Subtotal, income security Veterans benefits and services: Income security for veterans Hospital and medical care for veterans.. . Other Subtotal, veterans benefits and serv- 1988 - 1 . 6* - 2 . 3* - 3_. 1* * 0.1 0.1 -1.1 -0.9 -1.5 -1.2 -0.3 -1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -0.3 -7.3 -10.3 -11.0 -13.4 -14.8 * * - 0_. 3* - 0 . 4* -0.5 0.1 * -0.7 0.2* -0.8 0.2* _ * _ * _ * -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 0.2* -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.4 * _ * -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 _* 0.1* 0.1* 0.2 _ * 0.2 _ * 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -2.0 -6.1 -12.5 -22.1 -32.9 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 General purpose fiscal assistance Net interest 1987 - 1 . 1* Subtotal, administration of justice Subtotal, general government 1986 - 0 . 4* 1.8 -0.2 _ * Administration of justice: Federal law enforcement activities Federal correctional activities Other General government: Central fiscal operations Other 1985 -0.1 Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Increased employing agency payments for employee retirement Subtotal, allowances Undistributed offsetting receipts: Employer share, employee retirement Federal surplus property disposition Subtotal, undistributed offsetting receipts 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 -0.9 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2 -2.2 -0.2 -2.4 -0.2 -2.5 -0.2 -2.6 -0.2 -1.1 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 Total, differences -0.9 -31.8 -47.9 -62.1 -82.4 -100.1 Budget request 805.2 848.5 918.5 989.6 1,058.4 1,126.9 *$50 million or less. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A TABLE A—13. OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES, DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT SERVICES AND ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST (Outlays; in billions of dollars) 1983 1984 16.4 15.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -2.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -3.4 -0.1 -0.2 _ * 0.1 -0.7 -3.5 -0.2 -0.2 _* -0.2 -0.9 -3.7 -0.2 -0.2 _* -0.1 -0.1 -2.6 -4.0 -4.6 -5.3 -3.0 -3.7 -4.1 -6.8 -5.8 14.0 10.5 9.4 9.6 9.2 0.2 -2.1 0.1 17.0 Total differences 1988 13.6 Subtotal, Federal Financing Bank... Budget proposals 1987 14.2 16.9 0.2 1986 17.1 Current services estimates Differences: Strategic petroleum reserve Federal Financing Bank: Foreign military sales credit Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural housing insurance fund 1 Rural development insurance fund Community development grants Railroad rehabilitation and improvement Small business loans _ * 1985 - 2_. 4* _ * *$50 million or less. small part of the difference in rural housing insurance fund off-budget outlays is due to a proposed change in accounting treatment of sales and repurchases of certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's). Under the budget proposals, these sales (and repurchases) of financial assets would be treated as agency borrowing (and repayment of borrowing) by the Farmers Home Administration from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) rather than as on-budget offsetting receipts ana off-budget FFB outlays. Off-budget outlays.—The budget proposals for off-budget outlays are $3.0 billion lower than the current services estimates in 1984 due primarily to a decrease in estimated sales of certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's) by the rural housing insurance fund (RHIF) to the Federal Financing Bank. Lower sales are estimated because of a proposed decrease in RHIF direct loans under the rural housing block grant to the States proposed in the budget. The budget estimates for the strategic petroleum reserve outlays are as much as $2.2 billion lower than the current services estimates during 1983-1988 because of the revised fill strategy proposed by the administration. The proposed termination of the community development loan guarantee program reduces outlays for this program by $0.2 billion below the current services estimates for 1985-88. Increases above the current services estimates for foreign military sales credit activities reflect the administration's overall proposal to increase security assistance in support of U.S. foreign policy. Tables A-14 and A-15 provide a more detailed comparison (by function, subfunction, and program) of the President's budget request for 1984 with the current services budget authority and outlay estimates. A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 050 NATIONAL DEFENSE 051 Department of Defense—Military 053 Atomic energy defense activities 054 Defense-related activities: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Defense-related activities Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 150 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 151 Foreign economic and financial assistance: Multilateral development banks International organizations Agency for International Development Public Law 480—Food aid Peace Corps Refugee assistance Other Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Foreign economic and financial assistance 152 International security assistance: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit Military assistance Other Offsetting receipts Current services 1984 administration proposals 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 213,751 238,449 284,652 273,400 4,737 5,700 6,778 6,778 219 371 364 429 -100 219 371 364 329 218,704 244,521 291,794 280,503 1,262 215 1,847 1,000 105 423 61 -361 1,292 249 1,805 1,028 109 395 65 -434 1,361 262 1,902 1,052 113 344 68 -469 1,618 190 1,871 1,052 109 344 148 -466 4,552 4,509 4,633 4,868 2,919 800 179 221 -199 2,661 1,175 290 76 -155 2,802 1,237 305 80 -112 2,949 1,000 747 108 -112 -4 -4 3,919 4,047 4,313 4,692 153 Conduct of foreign affairs: Administration of foreign affairs International organizations and conferences Other 1,183 466 43 1,226 519 45 1,261 608 47 1,392 602 48 Subtotal, Conduct of foreign affairs 1,693 1,790 1,916 2,042 583 652 688 832 3,268 1,424 -80 2,748 2,700 -82 2,664 2,800 -84 2,457 2,100 -84 4,612 5,366 5,380 4,473 Subtotal, International security assistance 154 Foreign information and exchange activities 155 International financial programs: Export-Import Bank Foreign military sales trust fund (net) Offsetting receipts Subtotal, International financial programs Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority -92 -92 -92 -94 15,267 16,272 16,838 16,813 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 250 GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 251 General science and basic research: National Science Foundation programs Energy-related general science programs Smithsonian scientific information exchange activities. Subtotal, General science and basic research 1.006 529* Current services 1983 estimate 1.099 535* 1984 estimate 1.154 573* 1984 administration proposals 1.297 645* 1,535 1,635 1,727 1,943 253 Space flight 3,601 4,109 4,023 4,049 254 Space, science, applications, and technology 1,392 1,568 1,581 1,638 255 Supporting space activities 544 610 817 830 Deductions for offsetting receipts -10 -9 -9 -9 7,063 7,913 8,139 8,451 2,764 84 -1,045 279 2,573 2,410 2,069 -1,447 1,265 -1,013 944 -1,020 942 Total budget authority 270 ENERGY 271 Energy supply: Research and development Uranium enrichment Petroleum reserves Power marketing Incentives for non-conventional fuel production Subtotal, Energy supply 2,083 2,391 2,340 1,992 272 Energy conservation 168 299 407 74 274 Emergency energy preparedness 191 242 531 159 276 Energy information, policy, and regulation 889 882 877 725 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 300 NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 301 Water resources: Navigation fees (proposed) Existing law Subtotal, Water resources 302 Conservation and land management: Management of national forests, cooperative forestry, and forestry research Management of public lands Mining reclamation and enforcement Conservation of agricultural lands Other Offsetting receipts Proposed legislation Subtotal, Conservation and land management -71 -78 -81 -81 3,261 3,736 4,074 2,869 3,998 3,987 3,894 -438 3,689 3,998 3,987 3,894 3,251 1,723 506 174 570 101 -510 1,931 421 231 594 301 -735 1,887 434 244 612 310 -914 1,587 431 282 413 255 -914 -25 2,565 2,744 2,573 2,028 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 303 Recreational resources: Federal land acquisition Urban park grants and historic preservation funds. Operation of recreational resources Proposed legislation Subtotal, Recreational resources 304 Pollution control and abatement: Regulatory, enforcement, and research programsProposed legislation Hazardous substance response fund Oil pollution funds Sewage treatment plant construction grants Subtotal, Pollution control and abatement 306 Other natural resources Deductions for offsetting receipts.. Total budget authority 350 AGRICULTURE 351 Farm income stabilization: Commodity price support and related programsProposed legislation Crop insurance Agricultural credit Other programs and administrative expenses Proposed legislation Subtotal, Farm income stabilization 352 Agricultural research and services: Research programs Extension programs Marketing programs Proposed legislation Animal and plant health programs Proposed legislation Economic intelligence Other programs and administrative expenses Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Agricultural research and servicesDeductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority Current services 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 176 33 1,052 257 26 1,186 269 28 1,252 1,262 1,468 1,549 1,045 1,019 1,059 188 12 2,400 201 3 2,430 197 3 2,570 3,645 3,653 3,829 1,590 1,489 1,604 -1,860 -2,131 -2,635 11,199 11,210 10,815 16,063 17,858 10,491 425 639 63 529 682 63 397 896 17,191 19,132 11,849 657 316 118 710 329 125 740 347 133 289 277 285 161 120 -74 168 180 -87 174 187 -95 1,586 1,701 1,770 -14 18,763 - 2 20,831 66 - 2 13,617 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 370 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 371 Mortgage credit and thrift insurance: Mortgage purchase activity (GNMA) Proposed legislation Mortgage credit (FHA) Housing for the elderly or handicapped Rural housing programs (FmHA) Proposed legislation National Credit Union Administration 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 1,101 2 249 203 710 2,004 183 564 1,630 127 628 2,107 36 30 30 249 -248 127 436 1,508 1 3,556 66 4,055 2,409 3,140 5,694 707 789 1,010 760 -360 707 789 1,010 400 570 275 884 211 675 219 184 631 218 544 191 617 498 193 5 206 561 1,660 1,857 1,701 1,464 -2 - 1 - 1 - 1 6,419 5,054 5,851 7,556 8,723 13,181 13,801 213 3,584 1,968 70 236 4,397 1,013 67 259 5,095 1,002 66 13,811 80 258 3,967 889 58 14,559 18,892 20,222 19,062 402 Air transportation: Airways and airports (FAA) Aeronautical research and technology Air carrier subsidies Regulation 3,157 516 86 26 4,136 553 48 24 4,519 575 51 21 5,031 589 51 21 Subtotal, Air transportation 3,785 4,761 5,165 5,692 2,513 2,461 2,605 415 11 526 12 516 12 -58 2,543 -7 506 11 2,939 2,999 3,133 2,995 Subtotal, Mortgage credit and thrift insurance 372 Postal Service: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Postal Service 376 Other advancement of commerce: Small business assistance Technology utilization Proposed legislation Economic and demographic statistics Other Subtotal, Other advancement of commerce Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 400 TRANSPORTATION 401 Ground transportation: Highway systems Proposed legislation Highway safety Mass transit Railroads Regulation Subtotal, Ground transportation 403 Water transportation: Coast Guard user fees (proposed) Marine safety and transportation (Coast Guard) Proposed legislation Ocean shipping Regulation Subtotal, Water transportation A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 407 Other transportation Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 450 COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 451 Community development: Community development block grants Urban development action grants Rental rehabilitation grants (proposed) Urban homesteading Other programs Proposed legislation Subtotal, Community development 452 Area and regional development: Rural development Economic development assistance Indian programs Regional commissions Tennessee Valley Authority Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Area and regional development 453 Disaster relief and insurance: SBA disaster loans Disaster relief National flood insurance fund Other Subtotal, Disaster relief and insurance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 501 Elementary, secondary, and vocational education: Education for the disadvantaged Special programs and populations Proposed legislation Indian education Impact aid Education for the handicapped Vocational and adult education Proposed legislation Other Proposed legislation 1983 estimate 1984 administration proposals 1984 estimate 88 110 114 116 -116 -87 -85 -85 21,256 26,676 28,551 27,780 3,456 474 3,456 440 3,677 468 361 12 459 12 380 3,500 196 150 12 368 -26 4,291 4,367 4,538 4,200 590 224 1,156 159 129 -274 777 192 1,135 173 176 -277 922 238 1,152 184 126 -291 890 18 1,080 75 -286 1,984 2,177 2,330 1,777 302 130 71 55 * * 71 57 71 57 62 363 256 128 128 -34 -34 -34 -34 6,604 6,766 6,962 6,071 3,041 537 3,168 534 3,361 566 343 466 1,069 742 334 480 1,110 824 345 511 1,178 873 206 207 218 3,014 479 50 250 465 1,110 7 493 162 500 Subtotal, Elementary, secondary, and vocational education - 1 6,403 6,658 7,052 6,030 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 502 Higher education: Guaranteed student loan program Proposed legislation Self-help grants (proposed) Student financial assistance (existing law) Institutional aid Current services 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 3,074 2,200 2,169 3,570 757 3,569 739 3,794 759 2,169 -122 2,714 854 587 7,401 6,508 6,722 6,202 999 1,029 1,019 867 2,984 3,789 4,011 4,368 -87 277 281 757 88 282 271 824 94 287 888 92 1,074 86 4,386 5,260 5,278 5,441 600 643 664 682 2,400 952 2,450 1,037 2,500 1,103 2,500 378 465 359 560 377 616 1,037 3 601 1,718 132 49 1,767 129 48 2,345 130 49 2,193 110 31 Subtotal, Social services 6,094 6,350 7,119 6,475 Deductions for offsetting receipts -29 -42 -58 -57 25,854 26,406 27,796 25,640 55,237 47,223 65,998 -3,855 -4,355 -5,010 18,084 14,869 21,101 65,998 338 -5,010 160 21,101 -300 1,196 165 2,773 -495 Subtotal, Higher education 503 Research and general education aids 504 Training and employment: Employment and training assistance Proposed legislation Older Americans employment Work incentive program Federal-State employment service Other Subtotal, Training and employment 505 Other labor services 506 Social services: Social services block grant Rehabilitation services Proposed legislation Community service programs Family social services Services for children, youth, and families, the elderly and other special groups Domestic volunteer programs Other social services Total budget authority 550 HEALTH 551 Health care services: Medicare Proposed legislation Medicare premiums and collections Proposed legislation Medicaid Proposed legislation Health block grants Proposed legislation Other health care services Proposed legislation 1,362 4,004 4,064 2,899 Subtotal, Health care services 73,469 61,801 86,350 85,927 552 Health research: National Institutes of Health research Other research programs 3,450 394 3,791 437 3,967 461 3,868 479 3,844 4,228 4,428 4,347 Subtotal, Health research A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 553 Education and training of health care work force: Research training Clinical training Other 192 239 63 211 233 37 220 210 40 209 138 18 Subtotal, Education and training of health care workforce 494 481 469 365 689 712 736 348 362 370 754 -2 366 -4 1,037 1,074 1,106 1,113 15 -28 -27 -27 78,859 67,556 92,326 91,725 146,207 161,948 191,458 5,195 1,878 5,656 1,666 5,983 1,836 36 39 46 163,047 10,383 5,913 1,775 -37 46 153,316 169,308 199,323 181,127 31,921 35,104 36,255 345 336 228 36,255 1,456 228 -17 32,266 35,440 36,483 37,922 21,177 30,034 30,062 29,892 12,245 1,491 5,846 1,351 13,234 1,552 554 Consumer and occupational health and safety: Consumer safety Proposed legislation Occupational safety and health Proposed legislation Subtotal, Consumer and occupational health and safetyDeductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 600 INCOME SECURITY 601 General retirement and disability insurance: Social security (OASDI) Proposed legislation Railroad retirement Special benefits for disabled coal miners Proposed legislation Other Subtotal, General retirement and disability insurance 602 Federal employee retirement and disability: Retirement and disability programs Proposed legislation Federal employee workers' compensation Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal employee retirement and disability.... 603 Unemployment compensation 604 Housing assistance: Subsidized housing Public housing operating subsidies Rural housing block grants (proposed) Indian housing (proposed) Other housing assistance Subtotal, housing assistance 605 Food and nutrition assistance: Food stamps and aid to Puerto Rico Proposed legislation Child nutrition and other programs Proposed legislation Subtotal, Food and nutrition assistance 139 112 119 -2,319 1,636 850 76 154 13,876 7,308 14,906 397 11,286 12,815 12,492 4,498 4,932 4,908 12,492 -766 4,889 -313 15,784 17,747 17,400 16,302 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 609 Other income security: Supplemental security income Proposed legislation AFDC and related assistance Proposed legislation Earned income tax credit Refugee assistance Low income home energy assistance Other Subtotal, Other income security Total budget authority 700 VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES 701 Income security for veterans: Service-connected compensation Proposed legislation Non-service-connected pensions Proposed legislation Burial and other benefits National service life insurance trust fund U.S. Government life insurance trust fund All other insurance programs Insurance program receipts Subtotal, Income security for veterans 702 Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation.... 703 Hospital and medical care for veterans: Medical care and hospital services Construction Medical administration, research, and other Subtotal, Hospital and medical care for veterans 704 1983 estimate 7,769 8,459 7,511 6,007 8,223 8,243 1,201 689 1,875 228 1,205 578 1,986 252 1,123 485 1,875 273 Subtotal, Other veterans benefits and services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 380-700 0 - 83 - 3 QL : 3 1984 administration proposals 7,511 341 8,243 -732 1,123 485 1,300 268 17,770 20,704 19,511 18,539 254,188 280,541 317,684 284,178 9,590 9,463 10,331 4,048 3,827 3,950 140 1,164 31 9 -473 141 1,187 26 6 -445 149 1,209 23 7 -433 9,856 238 3,950 -113 149 1,209 23 7 -433 14,510 14,205 15,237 14,887 1,964 1,666 1,392 1,392 -20 1,964 1,666 1,392 1,371 7,101 490 211 7,693 567 212 8,072 572 225 8,079 886 223 7,802 8,472 8,868 9,188 -82 -90 -90 702 728 Veterans housing 705 Other veterans benefits and services: VA administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Non-VA support programs 1984 estimate 672 732 - 1 37 40 43 46 709 742 771 776 -3 -3 -3 -3 24,982 24,999 26,175 26,129 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 750 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 751 Federal law enforcement activities: Organized crime drug enforcement (OCDE) General investigation (FBI) Narcotics violation investigation (DEA) Alcohol, tobacco, and firearms investigation (ATF) Border enforcement activities (Customs and INS) Protection activities (Secret Service) Other enforcement Subtotal, Federal law enforcement activities 752 Federal litigative and judicial activities: Civil and criminal prosecution and representation Federal judicial activities Representation of indigents in civil cases Subtotal, Federal litigative and judicial activities 753 Federal correctional activities 754 Criminal justice assistance: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Criminal justice assistance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 800 GENERAL GOVERNMENT 801 Legislative functions 802 Executive direction and management: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Executive direction and management 803 Central fiscal operations: Collection of taxes Federal Financing Bank Other fiscal operations Subtotal, Central fiscal operations 804 General property and records management: Personal property Records management Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, General property and records management 805 Central personnel management 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 773 243 142 974 204 323 128 853 255 147 1,067 249 345 99 885 264 157 1,089 273 349 106 1,056 276 157 1,118 282 354 2,658 3,045 3,116 3,348 553 735 241 604 840 241 644 933 256 658 934 1,529 1,685 1,833 1,592 423 404 423 523 140 137 145 72 92 140 137 145 165 -32 -26 -26 -26 4,718 5,245 5,491 5,602 1,172 1,252 1,328 1,328 95 104 109 114 -2 95 104 109 113 2,672 -148 323 3,043 -152 462 3,159 -175 430 3,292 -179 424 2,847 3,353 3,413 3,537 20 81 285 37 88 329 60 90 337 61 87 351 2 386 454 487 502 141 141 149 151 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 806 Other general government: Territories Indian affairs Treasury claims Other Subtotal, Other general government Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 850 GENERAL PURPOSE FISCAL ASSISTANCE 851 General revenue sharing: General revenue sharing payments Administration Subtotal, General revenue sharing 852 Other general purpose fiscal assistance: Payments and loans to the District of Columbia New York City loan guarantee program Payments to States from Forest Service receipts Payments to States from receipts under the Mineral Leasing Act Other payments to States and counties from Federal land management activities Payments-in-lieu-of taxes Payments to territories and Puerto Rico Other 192 22 285 8 Current services 1983 estimate 170 9 406 8 1984 estimate 183 9 406 33 1984 administration proposals 150 18 405 34 507 592 631 607 -177 -143 -167 -184 4,970 5,753 5,951 6,055 4,567 6 4,567 7 4,758 7 4,567 8 4,573 4,574 4,765 4,574 449 1 243 543 544 544 145 269 269 995 654 96 368 7 616 96 399 6 1,123 96 411 6 73 96 410 6 Subtotal, Other general purpose fiscal assistance 1,819 1,805 2,450 2,394 Total budget authority 6,392 6,379 7,215 6,969 117,190 127,700 146,000 144,500 -16,067 -15,752 -15,992 -15,992 -870 -16,067 -15,752 -15,992 -16,862 1,789 -12,235 -5,981 1,904 -14,155 -10,702 1,586 -15,258 -11,142 1,586 -15,141 -11,031 128 -16,427 -22,953 -24,814 -24,458 84,697 88,995 105,193 103,180 900 NET INTEREST 901 Interest on the public debt 902 Interest received by trust funds: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, interest received by trust funds 908 Other interest: Interest on refunds of tax collections Interest on loans to the Federal Financing Bank Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other interest Total budget authority A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Current services 1983 estimate 920 ALLOWANCES 921 Civilian agency pay raises 926 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 1,967 949 Increased employer share, employee retirement 927 Contingencies for relatively uncontrollable programs 928 Contingencies for other requirements Total budget authority 950 UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS 951 Employer share, employee retirement: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Employer share, employee retirement 953 Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf -8,214 -8,924 -8,648 -1,205 -7,020 -8,214 -8,924 -9,853 -6,250 -11,793 -11,895 -11,895 -408 -803 -408 -803 -1,003 -13,270 -20,414 -21,621 -22,750 779,926 828,438 954,818 900,110 -1,003 Subtotal, Federal surplus property disposition Total budget authority 949 -7,020 954 Federal surplus property disposition: Existing Law Proposed legislation Total budget authority 1,967 *$500 thousand or less. large part of the difference between current services and the administration request for rural housing insurance fund budget authority is due to a proposed change in accounting treatment of sales and repurchases of certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's). Under the budget proposals, these sales (and repurchases) of financial assets would be treated as agency borrowing (and repayment of borrowing) by the Farmers Home Administration from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) rather than as on-budget offsetting receipts and off-budget FFB outlays. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM (In millions of dollars) liJOZ actual 050 NATIONAL DEFENSE 051 Department of Defense—Military 053 Atomic energy defense activities 054 Defense-related activities: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Defense-related activities Deductions for offsetting receipts Current services 1984 administration proposals 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 182,850 208,800 246,985 238,600 4,309 5,471 6,422 6,422 263 370 324 387 -100 263 370 324 -4 287 -4 187,418 214,641 253,730 245,305 1,063 238 1,524 929 103 382 -22 -361 1,266 205 1,715 1,028 109 401 26 -434 1,361 237 1,746 1,052 113 366 27 -469 1,407 205 1,773 1,052 108 366 41 -466 3,856 4,316 4,433 4,487 2,299 501 176 330 -199 2,684 880 206 221 -155 2,792 1,165 292 244 -112 2,944 1,006 490 270 -112 3,107 3,835 4,381 4,598 153 Conduct of foreign affairs: Administration of foreign affairs International organizations and conferences Other 1,045 544 41 1,145 512 46 1,346 606 47 1,352 602 48 Subtotal, Conduct of foreign affairs 1,630 1,704 1,999 2,001 571 640 688 828 1,173 -204 188 -166 -80 1,192 -196 500 -141 -82 1,460 -166 400 -173 -84 1,433 -147 400 -173 -84 911 1,272 1,438 1,430 -92 -92 -92 -94 9,982 11,675 12,847 13,250 Total outlays 150 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 151 Foreign economic and financial assistance: Multilateral development banks International organizations Agency for International Development Public Law 480—Food aid Peace Corps Refugee assistance Other Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Foreign economic and financial assistance 152 International security assistance: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit Military assistance Other Offsetting receipts Subtotal, International security assistance 154 Foreign information and exchange activities 155 International financial programs: Export-Import Bank Special defense acquisition fund Foreign military sales trust fund (net) Other Offsetting receipts Subtotal, International financial programs Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 250 GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 251 General science and basic research: National Science Foundation programs Energy-related general science programs Smithsonian scientific information exchange activities Subtotal, General science and basic research 1983 estimate 1,099 507 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 1,066 547* 1,160 573* 1,231 634* 1,607 1,613 1,732 1,865 * 253 Space flight 3,543 4,034 4,018 4,028 254 Space, science, applications, and technology 1,457 1,517 1,572 1,601 255 Supporting space activities 473 605 770 766 Deductions for offsetting receipts -10 -9 -9 -9 7,070 7,760 8,084 8,250 3,295 -473 -951 1,227 52 2,953 32 -1,383 1,101 50 2,600 40 -1,011 591 69 2,409 40 -1,017 590 69 Subtotal, Energy supply 3,150 2,752 2,289 2,090 Energy conservation 518 673 520 343 Total outlays 270 ENERGY 271 Energy supply: Research and development Uranium enrichment Petroleum reserves Power marketing Incentives for non-conventional fuel production 272 274 Emergency energy preparedness 191 334 470 228 276 Energy information, policy, and regulation 886 878 855 726 -71 -78 -81 -81 4,674 4,560 4,052 3,306 4,032 3,989 3,885 -438 3,743 4,032 3,989 3,885 3,305 1,932 467 119 576 163 -510 1,883 404 141 592 289 -735 1,900 412 160 642 321 -914 1,653 411 180 564 284 -914 -25 2,746 2,574 2,521 2,153 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 300 NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 301 Water resources: Navigation fees (proposed) Existing law Subtotal, Water resources 302 Conservation and land management: Management of national forests, cooperative forestry, and forestry research Management of public lands Mining reclamation and enforcement Conservation of agricultural lands Other Offsetting receipts Proposed legislation Subtotal, Conservation and land management A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 303 Recreational resources: Federal land acquisition Urban park grants and historic preservation funds.. Operation of recreational resources Proposed legislation Subtotal, Recreational resources. Current services 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 349 69 1,059 384 61 1,247 399 55 1,250 1,477 1,693 1,705 304 Pollution control and abatement: Regulatory, enforcement, and research programs.. Proposed legislation Hazardous substance response fund Oil pollution funds Sewage treatment plant construction grants 1,172 1,059 1,061 77 7 3,756 168 3 3,100 235 3 2,810 Subtotal, Pollution control and abatement 5,012 4,330 4,109 1,526 1,554 1,620 -1,860 -2,131 -2,635 12,934 12,008 11,206 11,652 18,859 12,394 219 1,370 48 310 732 64 327 781 65 13,289 19,965 13,567 667 307 123 707 328 128 725 347 133 317 281 285 153 107 -74 170 191 -87 173 189 -95 1,599 1,717 1,757 306 Other natural resources Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 350 AGRICULTURE 351 Farm income stabilization: Commodity price support and related programsProposed legislation Crop insurance Agricultural credit Other programs and administrative expenses Proposed legislation Subtotal, Farm income stabilization. 352 Agricultural research and services: Research programs Extension programs Marketing programs Proposed legislation Animal and plant health programs Proposed legislation Economic intelligence Other programs and administrative expensesOffsetting receipts Subtotal, Agricultural research and servicesDeductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays -14 14,875 - 2 21,680 15,322 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 370 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 371 Mortgage credit and thrift insurance: Mortgage purchase activities (GNMA) Proposed legislation Mortgage credit (FHA) Housing for the elderly or handicapped Rural housing programs (FmHA) Proposed legislation Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation and other. National Credit Union Administration Subtotal, Mortgage credit and thrift insurance.. 372 Postal Service Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Postal Service.. 376 Other advancement and regulation of commerce: Small business assistance Technology utilization Proposed legislation Economic and demographic statistics Other Subtotal, Other advancement of commerce.. Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 400 TRANSPORTATION 401 Ground transportation: Highway systems Proposed legislation Highway safety Mass transit Railroads Regulation Subtotal, Ground transportation.. 402 Air transportation: Airways and airports (FAA) Aeronautical research and technology.. Air carrier subsidies Regulation Subtotal, Air transportation. 403 Water transportation: Coast Guard user fees (proposed).. Marine safety and transportation Proposed legislation Ocean shipping Regulation Subtotal, Water transportation... 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1,504 1,019 1,417 -237 742 1,247 -329 255 1,611 -1,528 51 2,079 -1,440 -588 -2,020 -12 -2,300 -898 20 1,216 -622 -700 -716 16 707 789 1,010 707 789 1,010 933 249 839 209 700 237 185 577 215 575 605 1,943 1,837 1,742 200 -1 - 2 3,865 2,003 2,051 7,934 8,806 12,324 269 3,930 2,126 68 237 3,940 1,551 65 248 4,301 1,270 65 14,326 14,597 18,208 2,891 563 84 26 3,531 566 55 24 4,029 577 51 21 3,564 4,176 4,678 2,070 2,453 2,603 614 11 594 12 523 12 2,696 3,059 3,138 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 198/: actual 407 Other transportation 1983 estimate 90 120 1984 estimate 117 1984 administration proposals 118 -116 -87 -85 -85 20,560 21,865 26,057 25,145 3,792 388 12 392 3,525 488 20 456 3,529 516 12 440 3,526 512 12 412 -38 Subtotal, Community development 4,583 4,490 4,497 4,425 452 Area and regional development: Rural development Economic development assistance Local public works Coastal energy impact assistance Indian programs Regional commissions Tennessee Valley Authority Other programs Offsetting receipts 917 412 40 29 1,078 341 192 1 -274 1,163 319 30 18 1,076 274 200 -277 1,033 239 30 11 1,154 232 130 -2 -291 1,043 151 30 11 1,125 212 130 -2 -286 2,735 2,803 2,535 2,415 -302 115 -18 85 -194 222 44 67 -179 220 63 55 -193 220 63 56 -119 138 158 146 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 450 COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 451 Community development: Community development block grants Urban development action grants Urban homesteading Other programs Proposed legislation Subtotal, Area and regional development 453 Disaster relief and insurance: SBA Disaster loans Disaster relief National flood insurance fund Other programs Subtotal, Disaster relief and insurance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 501 Elementary, secondary, and vocational education: Education for the disadvantaged Special programs and populations Proposed legislation Indian education Impact aid Education for the handicapped Vocational and adult education Proposed legislation Other Proposed legislation - 1 -34 -34 -34 -34 7,165 7,397 7,156 6,951 2,954 751 3,031 514 3,143 547 339 546 1,141 818 337 576 1,128 773 333 520 1,167 815 230 217 228 3,016 498 6 270 499 1,160 781 20 188 500 Subtotal, Elementary, secondary, and vocational education - 1 6,780 6,577 6,752 6,437 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 502 Higher education: Guaranteed student loan program Proposed legislation Self-help grants (proposed) Student financial assistance (existing law) Institutional aid Current services 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 3,023 2,284 2,134 2,733 751 3,637 820 3,741 647 2,134 -102 407 3,038 608 6,507 6,741 6,522 6,084 1,040 1,121 1,056 999 4,110 3,724 3,870 269 235 731 119 278 315 812 97 211 286 888 92 3,595 -87 211 26 886 87 5,464 5,227 5,347 4,719 589 633 660 680 2,567 780 2,571 1,038 2,500 1,063 387 389 421 565 382 600 2,500 213 798 100 590 1,637 136 55 1,753 132 52 2,082 130 52 2,032 113 47 Subtotal, Social services 5,950 6,530 6,808 6,394 Deductions for offsetting receipts -29 -42 -58 -57 26,300 26,787 27,088 25,256 50,423 57,360 66,542 -3,855 -4,355 -5,010 17,446 19,408 21,155 66,535 -1,856 -5,010 160 21,155 -293 850 107 3,349 -137 Subtotal, Higher education 503 Research and general education aids 504 Training and employment: Employment and training assistance Proposed legislation Older Americans employment Work incentive program Federal-State employment service Other Subtotal, Training and employment 505 Other labor services 506 Social services: Rehabilitation services and reseach for the handicapped Social services block grant Proposed legislation Community service programs Family social services Services for children, youth, and families, the elderly, and other special groups Domestic volunteer programs Other social services Total outlays 550 HEALTH 551 Health care services: Medicare Proposed legislation Medicare premiums and collections Proposed legislation Medicaid Proposed legislation Health block grants Proposed legislation Other health care services Proposed legislation Subtotal, Health care services 552 Health research: National Institutes of Health research Other research programs Subtotal, Health research 1,304 4,338 4,083 2,916 68,350 76,496 86,908 84,860 3,470 478 3,757 447 3,967 462 3,828 452 3,948 4,204 4,429 4,281 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 553 Education and training of health care work force: Research training Clinical training Other 195 374 101 202 319 59 220 208 40 204 176 35 Subtotal, Education and training of health care workforce 670 580 467 414 698 728 762 336 361 367 762 -2 363 -3 1,034 1,089 1,128 1,119 15 -28 -27 -27 74,017 82,342 92,905 90,647 154,144 170,324 182,388 5,717 1,980 6,127 1,816 6,388 1,841 -67 -32 -26 31 37 42 182,388 -4,140 5,786 1,780 -37 -26 -132 42 161,805 178,272 190,633 185,661 19,616 21,250 22,941 264 218 228 -492 -612 -636 22,941 -362 228 -17 -636 554 Consumer and occupational health and safety: Consumer safety Proposed legislation Occupational safety and health Proposed legislation Subtotal, Consumer and occupational health and safetyDeductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 600 INCOME SECURITY 601 General retirement and disability insurance: Social security (OASDI) Proposed legislation Railroad retirement Special benefits for disabled coal miners Proposed legislation Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation Proposed legislation Other Subtotal, General retirement and disability insurance 602 Federal employee retirement and disability: Retirement and disability programs Proposed legislation Federal employee worker's compensation Proposed legislation Federal employees life insurance fund Subtotal, Federal employee retirement and disability 603 Unemployment compensation 604 Housing assistance: Subsidized housing Public housing operating subsidies Rural housing block grants (proposed) Indian housing (proposed) Other housing assistance Subtotal, housing assistance 605 Food and nutrition assistance: Food stamps and aid to Puerto Rico Proposed legislation Child nutrition and other programs Proposed legislation Subtotal, Food and nutrition assistance 19,388 20,856 22,532 22,153 23,756 35,020 28,778 28,774 6,880 1,008 7,937 1,582 8,981 1,516 155 '257 275 8,532 1,520 280 40 450 8,043 9,776 10,772 10,823 11,014 12,825 12,496 4,565 5,008 4,930 12,496 -757 4,878 -295 15,579 17,833 17,426 16,322 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 609 Other income security: Supplemental security income Proposed legislation AFDC and related assistance Proposed legislation Earned income tax credit Refugee assistance Low income home energy assistance Other Subtotal, Other income security Total outlays 700 VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES 701 Income security for veterans: Service-connected compensation Proposed legislation Non-service-connected pensions Proposed legislation Burial and other benefits National service life insurance trust fund U.S. Government life insurance trust fund All other insurance programs Insurance program receipts Subtotal, Income security for veterans 702 Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation 703 Hospital and medical care for veterans: Medical care and hospital services Construction Medical administration, research, and other Subtotal, Hospital and medical care for veterans 704 Veterans housing: Loan guaranty revolving fund Direct loan revolving fund Other (HUD Participation Trust Fund) Housing program receipts Subtotal, Veterans housing 705 Other veterans benefits and services: VA administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Non-VA support programs Subtotal, Other veterans benefits and services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 7,677 8,760 7,509 7,990 8,224 8,263 1,201 1,011 1,687 206 1,205 632 1,963 249 1,123 521 1,898 268 1984 administration proposals 7,509 341 8,263 -732 1,123 521 1,398 265 19,773 21,032 19,581 18,688 248,343 287,789 289,723 282,422 9,276 9,687 10,290 3,879 3,954 3,940 140 925 64 -102 -473 141 954 61 -87 -445 148 986 54 -88 -433 9,855 198 3,940 -68 148 986 54 -88 -433 13,710 14,264 14,898 14,593 1,947 1,624 1,350 1,350 -20 1,947 1,624 1,350 1,329 6,851 444 221 7,561 494 235 7,974 702 232 7,981 688 231 7,517 8,290 8,908 8,900 183 -62 -19 -192 -174 -16 -82 261 -25 -16 -90 261 -25 -16 -90 102 -464 130 130 646 703 729 733 - 1 36 40 42 44 682 744 771 776 -3 -3 23,955 24,455 -3 26,053 -3 25,724 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1982 actual 750 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 751 Federal law enforcement activities: Organized crime drug enforcement (OCDE) General investigation (FBI) Narcotics violation investigation (DEA) Alcohol, tobacco, and firearms investigation (ATF) Border enforcement activities (Customs and INS) Protection activities (Secret Service) Other enforcement Subtotal, Federal law enforcement activities 752 Federal litigative and judicial activities: Civil and criminal prosecution and representation Federal judicial activities Representation of indigents in civil cases Subtotal, Federal litigative and judicial activities 753 Federal correctional activities 754 Criminal justice assistance: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Criminal justice assistance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 800 GENERAL GOVERNMENT 801 Legislative functions 802 Executive direction and management: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Executive direction and management 803 Central fiscal operations: Collection of taxes Federal Financing Bank Other fiscal operations Subtotal, Central fiscal operations 804 General property and records managementReal property Personal property Records management Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, General property and records management 805 Central personnel management 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 737 225 137 933 198 299 104 856 250 145 1,064 244 353 99 853 258 155 1,073 268 347 103 1,021 269 155 1,096 276 354 2,529 3,017 3,053 3,276 541 716 259 592 835 242 631 925 256 646 924 21 1,516 1,669 1,813 1,592 364 424 457 466 294 189 154 148 36 294 189 154 184 -32 -26 -26 -26 4,671 5,273 5,451 5,491 1,177 1,253 1,316 1,324 96 104 106 113 -2 96 104 106 112 2,513 -148 291 3,031 -152 456 3,146 -175 419 3,278 -179 408 2,656 3,334 3,389 3,507 -92 70 73 283 86 37 90 335 -137 60 88 340 -137 61 85 354 2 334 549 350 365 136 139 150 152 A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 806 Other general government: Territories Indian affairs Treasury claims Other Subtotal, Other general government Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 850 GENERAL PURPOSE FISCAL ASSISTANCE 851 General revenue sharing: General revenue sharing payments Administration Subtotal, General revenue sharing 852 Other general purpose fiscal assistance: Payments and loans to the District of Columbia New York City loan guarantee program Payments to States from Forest Service receipts Payments to States from receipts under the Mineral Leasing Act Other payments to States and counties from Federal land management activities Payments-in-lieu-of taxes Payments to territories and Puerto Rico Other Current services 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1984 administration proposals 250 18 285 -49 233 13 406 -23 195 8 406 115 178 18 405 116 504 628 723 717 -177 -143 -167 -184 4,726 5,863 5,868 5,993 4,569 6 4,567 7 4,758 7 4,567 7 4,575 4,573 4,765 4,574 439* 543* 544 544 243 145 269 269 995 653 96 381 6 615 96 402 7 1,123 96 411 6 73 96 410 6 Subtotal, Other general purpose fiscal assistance 1,818 1,809 2,449 2,394 Total outlays 6,393 6,382 7,215 6,968 117,190 127,700 146,000 144,500 -16,067 -15,752 -15,992 -15,992 -870 -16,067 -15,752 -15,992 -16,862 1,789 -12,235 -5,981 1,904 -14,155 -10,701 1,586 -15,258 -11,142 1,586 -15,141 -11,031 128 -16,427 -22,952 -24,814 -24,458 84,697 88,995 105,193 103,180 900 NET INTEREST 901 Interest on the public debt 902 Interest received by trust funds: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Interest received by trust funds 908 Other interest: Interest on refunds of tax collections Interest on loans to the Federal Financing Bank Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other interest Total outlays A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-15. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual - Current services 1983 estimate 920 ALLOWANCES 921 Civilian agency pay raises 926 Increased employer share, employee, retirement 927 Contingencies for relatively uncontrollable programs 928 1984 administration proposals 1,888 949 Contingencies for other requirements Total outlays 950 UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS 951 Employer share, employee retirement: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, employer share, employee retirement 953 1984 estimate Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf 1,888 949 -7,020 -8,214 -8,924 -8,648 -1,205 -7,020 -8,214 -8,924 -9,853 -6,250 -11,793 -11,895 -11,895 -408 -803 954 Federal surplus property disposition: Existing law Proposed legislation -1,003 Subtotal, Federal surplus property disposition -408 -803 -1,003 Total outlays -13,270 -20,414 -21,621 -22,750 Total outlays 728,375 806,060 880,270 848,483 * $500 thousand or less. 'A large part of the difference between current services and the administration request in rural housing insurance fund outlays is due to a proposed change in accounting treatment of sales and repurchases of certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's). Under the budget proposals, these sales (and repurchases) of financial assets would be treated as agency borrowing (and repayment of borrowing) by the Farmers Home Administration from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) rather than as on-budget offsetting receipts and off-budget FFB outlays. SPECIAL ANALYSIS B FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN T H E NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS The budget is designed to serve several purposes: —It is an economic document that reflects the taxing and spending policies of the Government for promoting economic growth, high employment, relative price stability, and a strong balance-of-payments position. —It proposes an allocation of resources between the private and public sectors and within the public sector. Through its impact on consumption and investment decisions and the distribution of income it also affects allocation decisions within the private sector. —It sets forth the President's request to the Congress for appropriations action on existing or new programs and for changes in tax legislation. —It is a report to the Congress and the people on how the Government has spent the funds entrusted to it in past years. No single budget concept can satisfy all these purposes fully. The budget document and related Treasury reports provide complete, detailed information on the finances of the Federal Government and on the tax and spending programs proposed by the President. For study of aggregate economic activity, however, the national income and product accounts (NIA) of the United States provide the most useful measures. This special analysis shows Federal finances as measured in the NIA. The analysis is divided into three major sections. The first shows the size, composition, and trends in Federal sector receipts and expenditures. Additional details will be published in the February 1983 issue of the Department of Commerce publication, Survey of Current Business. The second section of this analysis shows quarterly estimates of Federal sector receipts and expenditures, while the final section explains the major differences between the budget and the NIA concepts. A discussion of fiscal policy can be found in the Economic Report of the President FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Table B-1 shows Federal sector NIA receipts, expenditures, and deficits for 1982-84. B-i 380-700 0 - 83 - 4 QL A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table B-1. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NIA (In billions of dollars) Description 1982 actual RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals. Contributions for social insurance Total receipts.. EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises.. Wage disbursements less accruals 1983 estimate 303.0 50.1 50.7 214.4 293.1 50.5 55.2 229.1 618.2 627.9 250.1 (173.0) (77.1) 310.8 (304.8) (6.0) 83.4 82.5 279.0 (199.4) (79.6) 348.6 (342.2) (6.4) 86.9 92.4 22.1 12.8 .1 Total expenditures.. Deficit ( — ) 739.7 829.0 -121.5 201.1 Note: The estimates for 1983 and 1984 are preliminary; any revisions will be published in the February 1983 issue of the Survey of Current Business. Trends in Federal sector receipts.—Table B-1 divides receipts into four major categories, which are also illustrated in the chart on the distribution of Federal sector receipts by category. Table B-2 shows, at 10-year intervals, 3-year averages of Federal sector receipts by category as a percent of the gross national product (GNP) for the early years of four decades to provide a perspective relative to the 1984 levels of receipts. For the earlier periods, 3-year averages were used in order to eliminate the impact of annual fluctuations and to permit greater focus on trends. Table B-2. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP Description Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts 1951-53 average actual 1961-63 average actual 1971-73 average actual 1981-83 average estimate ilSol no/i octimato collmdlc 8.2 6.0 3.0 2.1 8.6 4.1 2.6 3.7 8.7 3.1 1.8 5.3 9.9 1.8 1.8 7.7 8.7 1.7 1.7 7.5 19.3 18.9 18.9 21.2 19.7 Personal tax and nontax receipts.—The largest receipt category— personal tax and nontax receipts—is composed primarily of individual income taxes but also includes estate and gift taxes and some miscellaneous receipts. Traditionally, increases in income, because A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A of both real growth and inflation, would automatically increase these receipts. Indeed, since personal income taxes are progressive, these receipts normally grow at a faster rate than personal income. Periodically over the past three decades tax reductions were enacted that offset part of the increase in effective tax rates resulting from the progressive tax structure. However, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 has drastically altered these circumstances. That act provided for across-the-board tax reductions and—starting in 1985—indexing of income tax brackets, the zero bracket amount, and the personal exemption to inflation. As a result, personal tax and nontax receipts will increase at a much slower rate in the future than the increases that normally would have been called for under pre-existing tax law. Distribution of Federal Sector Receipts by Category Percent 100 Percent: 100 Indirect Business Tax ^ and Nontax Accruals; 60 60 4 0 4 0 - : P e r s o r ^ l T^ax a n d N o n t a x ^Receipts 20 * 20 I'liMwVjj'i'iiiViYi'w'iii'iiil • fiimi Yma- a 7 . ; •; . ;; • ~ ; < - * Corporate profits tax accruals.—Corporate profits tax accruals vary significantly from year to year because corporate profits are highly volatile. The NIA corporate profits taxes differ from the corresponding budget category primarily because: (1) the NIA includes the deposit of earnings by the Federal Reserve System as corporate profits taxes, whereas the budget treats these collections as miscellaneous receipts; and (2) the NIA records corporate profits taxes when the profits are earned (that is, accrued), while the unified budget records the cash receipts. A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 The gradual decline in corporate profits tax receipts relative to GNP and (as shown in the chart above) to total receipts results mainly from three factors: (1) a long-term decline in corporate profits relative to GNP; (2) a narrowing of the corporate profits tax base resulting from changes in the definition of corporate profits for tax purposes (largely increases in permissible depreciation allowances); and (3) reductions in effective tax rates on corporate profits resulting from statutory rate reductions and tax credits. Provisions of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 designed to stimulate investment further accelerated this trend toward a relative reduction in corporate profits taxes. Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.—These receipts are composed of excise taxes, customs duties, and various miscellaneous receipts such as the windfall profit tax, rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf lands, import fees on crude oil and petroleum products, and coal-mining reclamation fees. Over time, indirect business tax and nontax accruals have become a much less important part of total Federal sector receipts, partly because they normally do not rise in proportion to the growth in the economy and partly because some of them, such as the automobile and telephone excise taxes, have been reduced or repealed. Despite this relative decline, the use of excise taxes as user charges to finance Federal programs such as highways and airways makes this an important source of financing certain specialized programs in the budget. Contributions for social insurance.—This is the second largest category of Federal sector receipts. The increase since World War II has been caused by the growth in the labor force and in wage rates, the expanded coverage of existing social insurance programs, the enactment of new ones, and increases in the taxable wage base and tax rates needed to finance liberalization of benefits. As a result of the rapid rise in social insurance taxes (mainly social security) and the passage of legislation reducing or eliminating individual income taxes for many low- and moderate-income individuals and families, millions of Americans now pay significantly higher social insurance taxes than income taxes. The combined effect of the tax reductions provided by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the social security tax increases under current laws—including the coverage of Federal civilian employees under hospital insurance taxes for the first time—dramatically reinforce this trend toward social insurance collections rising relative to total NIA receipts. Major tax changes.—In 1981 the Congress enacted one of the most sweeping sets of changes in tax law ever enacted: the Eco- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll nomic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. This budget proposes some major changes in social insurance taxes and some relatively small additional tax changes—most of which will affect years beyond 1984— but almost all of the changes in tax receipts reflected herein due to legislation arise from the effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, and from changes in the social security tax rates and base that occur automatically under current law. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981: —Marginal individual income tax rates were reduced by 5% on October 1, 1981 and 10% on July 1, 1982. They will be reduced an additional 8 % effective July 1, 1983 from the levels called for under prior law. —Other major changes affecting personal taxes include reducing the maximum marginal income tax rate to 50%, reducing the maximum effective tax rates on capital gains, allowing taxpayers who do not itemize deductions to deduct charitable contributions, permitting taxpayers who are covered by retirement programs to open tax-exempt individual retirement accounts, and significantly reducing estate and gift tax liabilities. —Corporation income taxes were reduced through imposition of lower tax rates on the first $50,000 of corporate taxable income, faster write-offs under depreciation allowances, and liberalization in provisions permitting less profitable corporations to transfer tax benefits to more profitable ones. These tax reductions were partially offset by increases in the proportion of taxes that corporations must deposit on a current basis. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982: —This included a 10% income tax withholding on interest and dividend income. —Modified many provisions affecting corporate profit taxes. —Provided for temporary increases in selected excise taxes. —Increased Federal employment taxes effective January 1983. —Extended coverage of medical (hospital insurance) taxes to Federal civilian employees. Other tax changes: —Last month the Congress, at the urging of the President, enacted a 5 cent per gallon increase in motor vehicle fuel taxes to provide user charge financed increases in money available for highway and mass transportation grants-in-aid. —Under previously enacted legislation, the Federal social security taxable earnings base increased from $32,400 in calendar year 1982 to $35,700 in 1983 and is estimated to increase to $37,800 in 1984. The social security tax rate also rose in 1982 to 13.4%. The next scheduled increase is to 14.1% in 1985, but under the recommendations of the bi-partisan social security A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 plan this increase is recommended to be accelerated to January 1, 1984. —Under the administration's proposals, the employee contribution to the civil service retirement fund will rise from the present 7% to 9% in 1984 and 11% in 1985. Similar increases are proposed for matching payments by employing agencies. Such employer and employee contributions are counted as NIA social insurance contributions. Additional details about enacted and proposed tax changes can be found in Part 4 of the 1984 Budget on a unified budget basis; additional detail on an NIA basis will be published in the February 1983 Survey of Current Business. Trends in Federal sector expenditures.—Federal sector expenditures are also divided into several major NIA categories. The principal distinction is between purchases of goods and services (which are divided between defense and nondefense purchases) and all other transactions. Purchases are that portion of the Nation's output that is bought directly by the Federal Government and, therefore, included in the GNP. The other expenditure categories consist primarily of payments to individuals and grants to State and local governments. These individuals and governments, in turn, can use the income to finance their own consumption or purchases of goods and services, to save, and—in the case of States and localities—to hold down taxes or to make transfer payments. The chart on the distribution of Federal sector expenditures illustrates the trends in spending since 1956. As can be seen, major shifts in the composition of Federal sector expenditures occur over time. Until recently, for example, for most years since the Korean war, defense purchases of goods and services were a declining share of Federal spending. This pattern was temporarily reversed for 3 years during the Vietnam period, but by 1970 the defense share was well below the pre-Vietnam percentages. This budget reflects the President's continuing efforts to reverse the relative decline in our Nation's defense capability that accompanied these reductions. Defense purchases are expected to total 24.1% of Federal sector expenditures in 1983 and 26.1% in 1984; they were 22.0% in 1981, and 23.3% in 1982. As with Table B-2, table B-3 shows four decades of historical data on 3-year averages compared to the 1984 recommended distribution. Defense purchases and .foreign transfer payments are, of course, largely devoted to the conduct of our national defense and foreign affairs. In 1951-53 defense purchases were 10.9% of GNP; 1951 was the first year of the Korean war. Foreign transfer payments in 1951-53 averaged 0.8% of GNP. The total of these—11.7%—reflects roughly the cost of the conduct of external affairs. The years 1961- A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Distribution of Federal Sector Expenditures by Category Percent " 1 9 5 6 . 6 1 Percent 6 6 7 1 7 6 Fiscat Years Table B - 3 . . . 8 4 Estimate FEDERAL SECTOR EXPENDITURES AS A PERCENT OF GNP Description Defense purchases Nondefense purchases Domestic transfer payments Foreign transfer payments Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Total expenditures 8 1 . 1951-53 average actual 1961-63 average actual 1971-73 average actual 1981-83 average estimate 1984 estimate 10.9 1.7 2.6 .8 .8 1.3 8.9 2.1 4.6 .4 1.4 1.2 6.4 2.3 6.8 .2 2.9 1.3 5.7 2.5 10.1 .2 2.9 2.6 6.6 2.1 10.1 .2 2.6 3.1 .3 .7 .7 .5 .6 18.2 19.3 20.6 24.5 25.1 63, a post-Korean war peacetime period, reflected a signficantly lower level of defense expenditures relative to the GNP than was prevalent prior to the Korean war. In that period, defense purchases and foreign transfers combined were equal to 9.3% of GNP. Even though the 1971-73 period included some spending for the Vietnam war, defense purchases and foreign transfers were down to 6.6% of GNP. In the 1981-83 period, defense purchases plus foreign transfer payments are estimated to be equal to 5.9% of the A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 GNP—well below the 1971-73 average—but in 1984 they are expected to total 6.8% of GNP. Over the past several decades, spending on most other expenditure categories—especially nondefense purchases, domestic transfer payments, and grants-in-aid—has risen dramatically relative to GNP. 1951-53 spending for everything except defense purchases and foreign transfer payments was equal to 6.6% of GNP; in 198183 such spending is estimated to equal 18.6% of GNP. The current effort to strengthen our national defense capability and to simultaneously reduce the size of the Government relative to the economy will have a noticeable effect by 1984. In that year, defense purchases and foreign transfers are estimated at 6.8% of GNP while all other spending is estimated to be equal to 18.3% of GNP. Table B-4 displays purchases of goods and services (defense and nondefense) with a split by character of expenditures between compensation of employees and all other purchases. Table B-4. PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY CHARACTER OF EXPENDITURE (In billions of dollars) 1979 actual Defense purchases: Compensation of employees Other Total defense purchases Nondefense purchases: Compensation of employees Other Total nondefense 1980 actual 1981 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 47.9 60.3 51.5 75.1 58.8 87.8 66.3 106.7 70.1 129.3 72.5 156.5 108.2 126.5 146.6 173.0 199.4 229.0 26.7 29.2 28.9 34.4 31.2 40.3 32.3 44.8 33.6 46.0 34.3 39.2 55.9 63.3 71.5 77.1 79.6 73.5 Defense purchases of goods and services.—Defense purchases consist of all purchases of goods and services under programs included in the national defense function in the budget document. In addition, defense purchases include purchases of goods and services by the military assistance programs that in earlier years had been classified in the national defense function but are now classified in the international affairs function in the budget. Normally about 95% of defense purchases are made by the Department of Defense, Military. The bulk of the remainder is for international security assistance, defense stockpiles, civil defense, and nuclear weapons programs carried out by other agencies. The budget calls for an increase in defense purchases of $29.6 billion in 1984 over 1983. This increase more than offsets the impact of inflation, thus continuing the recent trend of rising defense purchases in real terms. The pattern of real defense spending has altered significantly over the past decade. From a Vietnam SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll peak in 1968, real defense purchases declined each year until 1976. Between 1976 and 1978 such purchases remained relatively stable, and starting in 1979 began the rise that is continuing in this budget. Nondefense purchases of goods and services.—This category covers the goods and services purchased by Federal nondefense agencies. These include such programs as operation of national forest, park, and recreation areas; space exploration; promotion of commerce; acquisition and disposal of agricultural commodities; construction of flood control and navigation projects; operation of the Federal airway system; a wide variety of medical, energy, space, and other scientific research; the capital outlays of Government enterprises; Federal law enforcement; and operation of veterans hospitals. Table B-5 shows these purchases by agency for the years 1975 to 1984, reflecting the agency structure in the 1984 Budget. Nondefense purchases consist mainly of the cost of operating the various nondefense agencies. In the case of Government enterprises (including the CCC and the Postal Service), however, the purchases figures reflect net capital formation. The most volatile major segment of nondefense purchases is CCC purchases, because the Corporation buys and sells agricultural commodities. On occasion—as in 1979 and in 1984—such sales may exceed new purchases. The decline of these purchases in 1983 and 1984 is partially due to disposition of commodities through the payments-in-kind program. The value of these commodities are reflected in the current deficit estimates in table B-8. Table B-5—NONDEFENSE PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY AGENCY AND ACTIVITY (In billions of dollars) Actual 1975 Legislative and judicial branches Department of Agriculture Commodity Credit Corporation Forest Service All other Department of Commerce Corps of Engineers, Civil Education activities Energy activities Department of Health and Human Services Health Income security and other Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration Other Department of the Treasury Internal Revenue Service Other Environmental Protection Agency. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Hospital and medical care Administration and other 1.0 2.6 (0.2) (0.8) (1.5) 0.8 2.1 0.4 1.8 5.0 (3.3) (1.7) 0.7 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.7 3.0 (0.8) (1.7) (0.5) 2.6 (1.6) (1.0) 0.5 3.2 4.1 (3.6) (0.5) 1976 1.1 2.6 (0.2) (0.9) (1.5) 0.9 2.2 0.3 2.2 5.4 (3.7) (1.8) 0.5 2.4 1.4 0.9 0.9 3.2 (0.9) (1.8) (0.5) 2.7 (1.7) (1.0) 0.5 3.6 4.7 (3.9) (0.7) 1977 1.4 5.4 (2.7) (1-1) (1.7) 1.0 2.3 0.3 3.0 5.9 (3.8) (2.1) 0.5 2.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 3.6 (1.0) (2.0) (0.6) 2.9 (1.8) (1.1) 0.6 3.9 5.2 (4.6) (0.7) 1978 1.5 4.4 (0.8) (1.2) (2.3) 1.1 2.6 0.3 4.5 6.5 (4.4) (2.0) 0.6 2.7 1.7 1.2 1.2 4.0 (1.1) (2.2) (0.7) 3.2 (1.9) (1.2) 0.6 3.9 5.8 (5.1) (0.7) Estimate 1979 1.6 2.7 (-1.0) (1.5) (2.2) 1.2 3.0 0.4 4.8 6.8 (4.6) (2.3) 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 4.3 (1.3) (2.3) (0.8) 3.5 (2.1) (1.4) 0.8 4.1 6.2 (5.4) (0.7) 1980 1.8 5.5 (1.0) (1.8) (2.7) 1.9 3.3 0.4 3.5 7.9 (5.4) (2.5) 0.5 3.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 4.8 (1.4) (2.5) (0.9) 4.1 (2.3) (1.7) 0.9 4.7 7.1 (6.3) (0.8) 1981 1.8 5.8 (1.2) (1.9) (2.8) 1.5 3.2 0.6 8.2 8.6 (6.0) (2.6) 0.4 3.7 2.3 1.8 1.5 5.1 (1.6) (2.7) (0.8) 4.3 (2.4) (1.9) 1.0 5.3 7.6 (6.8) (0.8) 1982 2.1 13.2 (8.0) (1.9) (3.3) 1.5 3.0 0.7 5.4 8.8 (5.9) (2.9) 0.2 3.6 2.4 2.1 1.8 5.3 (1.8) (2.5) (1-0) 4.2 (2.5) (1.7) 1.0 5.9 8.1 (7.4) (0.7) 1983 2.4 10.7 (5.4) (2.0) (3.3) 1.6 3.0 0.8 4.9 9.4 (6.2) (3.2) 0.3 3.9 2.8 1.9 1.9 6.1 (2.1) (3.0) (1.0) 5.0 (3.0) (2.0) 0.9 6.6 8.9 (8.2) (0.7) 1984 2.5 4.0 (-0.7) (1.7) (3.0) 1.5 2.5 0.7 4.2 9.1 (6.1) (3.0) 0.2 3.8 3.1 1.8 2.2 6.5 (2.2) (3.4) (0.9) 5.4 (3.3) (2.1) 0.9 6.8 9.5 (8.6) (0.9) All other National Science Foundation Nuclear Regulatory Commission OPM: Employee health benefits and imputed employee retirement contributions Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority United States Information Agency Imputed bank service charges Other Total 5.3 (0.3) (0.1) 5.5 (0.3) (0.2) 6.0 (0.3) (0.2) 6.7 (0.3) (0.3) 7.7 (0.4) (0.3) 7.9 (0.4) (0.4) 8.8 (0.4) (0.4) 7.9 (0.5) (0.4) 8.5 (0.5) (0.5) 8.8 (0.5) (0.5) (0.7) (0.7) (1.0) (0.2) (0.5) (1.9) (0.9) (0.7) (1.1) (0.3) (0.3) (1.7) (1.0) (0.4) (1.2) (0.3) (0.5) (2.0) (1.3) (0.3) (1.5) (0.3) (0.6) (2.1) (1.4) (0.4) (2.0) (0.3) (0.4) (2.4) (1.7) (0.4) (1.7) (0.4) (0.3) (2.6) (2.0) (0.5) (1.5) (0.4) (0.4) (3.2) (2.1) (0.4) (1.0) (0.5) (0.4) (2.6) (2.3) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (3.0) (2.3) (1.0) (0.4) (0.7) (0.4) (3.0) 37.7 40.7 48.4 52.6 55.9 63.3 71.5 77.1 79.6 73.5 > > t-1 Kl GO GO w I A-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 The Department of Health and Human Services and the Veterans Administration are normally the two largest agencies in terms of nondefense purchases. Their combined spending is projected to be 25% of the total in 1984. In 1984 the combined nondefense purchases for health care and research by the two agencies is estimated at $14.7 billion, nearly 80% of the total purchases for the two agencies. Most of their remaining purchases are for administering income security transfer programs. Both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration with $6.8 billion in 1984 nondefense purchases and the Energy activities with $4.2 billion in 1984 nondefense purchases conduct major research and development programs. The Transportation Department's $6.5 billion of 1984 nondefense purchases are mainly for the operation of the Federal Aviation Agency and the Coast Guard. The Corps of Engineers has an estimated $2.5 billion in 1984 nondefense purchases which, along with the Tennessee Valley Authority's $0.4 billion, is primarily for public works for natural resources and power activities. Domestic transfer payments.—This is the largest category of Federal sector expenditures. Spending for domestic transfers has expanded rapidly in recent years, mainly because of more beneficiaries and higher benefit payments under social insurance programs. As Table B-6 shows, spending on human resources programs—especially income security programs—dominates domestic transfer payments. This spending is expected to continue to rise in 1984, largely due to demographic and economic conditions—increases in the covered population and cost-of-living adjustments. Social security accounts for 48.8% of total domestic transfer payments in 1984, while medicare accounts for another 18.0%, unemployment assistance for 7.6%, Federal civilian and military employee's retirement and disability for 11.4%, and veterans benefits for 4.7% of the total. Program trends (on a unified budget basis) are discussed extensively in Part 5 of the Budget and elsewhere in the budget documents. The great bulk of domestic transfer payments is for income support and characterized by automatic eligibility of coverage and automatic benefit increases with price changes. For these programs the demographic and economic conditions completely dominate the growth patterns, and the rate of growth is quite substantial for all years shown herein. However, the budget proposes some reductions from levels otherwise determined by automatic eligibility, and for those programs that are less fully automatic—primarily in the education, training, employment, and social services function in the human resources grouping, and in the non-human resources functions—the budget proposes significant restraint in the spending levels. Table B-6. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS (In billions of dollars) Description HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Social security (OASDI) Railroad retirement Civil service retirement Unemployment benefits Benefits for coal miners Supplemental security income Food and nutrition Special payments, Treasury1 Workmen's compensation Other Subtotal, Income security Health: Medicare Other Subtotal, Health Education, training, employment, and social services: Education Training, employment, and social services Subtotal, education, training, employment, and social services ... Actual 1973 1975 1974 1977 1976 Estimate 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 2.1 53.2 2.6 5.6 5.6 1.0 1.9 2.7 .2 .2 .3 .1 61.5 3.0 6.9 12.5 .9 4.2 4.2 1.7 .4 .1 61.8 72.9 95.5 111.9 120.2 127.0 139.8 167.2 194.7 216.9 246.1 247.5 9.0 .4 10.9 .4 14.1 .5 16.9 .6 20.7 .6 24.2 .6 28.1 .7 33.8 .7 41.1 .8 49.0 .7 55.7 .7 63.0 .6 9.4 11.4 14.6 17.4 21.3 24.8 28.7 34.5 41.9 49.7 56.3 63.6 .8 .8 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.6 5.5 5.2 5.4 4.9 .7 .7 .6 .4 .6 .8 .9 1.1 1.1 .9 1.0 .8 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.4 5.7 6.6 6.2 6.4 5.8 46.6 2.4 4.5 4.9 .9 70.3 3.4 8.2 18.3 1.0 4.6 4.7 .9 .5 .2 81.1 3.7 9.4 14.2 .9 4.7 4.4 .9 .6 .2 89.3 3.9 10.8 10.9 1.0 4.9 4.5 .9 .6 .2 99.4 4.2 12.2 9.9 1.6 5.2 5.7 .8 .7 .1 113.7 4.7 14.5 16.4 1.8 5.7 7.9 1.3 .8 .6 134.1 5.2 17.4 17.6 1.7 6.4 9.8 1.3 .9 .2 149.6 5.6 19.2 22.0 1.7 6.9 9.6 1.2 .9 .4 161.9 6.0 20.8 34.7 1.6 7.3 11.2 1.2 1.0 .4 171.2 5.7 22.1 26.8 1.5 7.5 10:1 1.1 1.0 .3 Table B-6. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS—Continued (In billions of dollars) Description Actual 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 Estimate 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 9.7 10.4 12.8 14.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.2 16.3 16.4 82.5 96.3 124.8 146.0 157.9 168.9 186.9 221.8 258.8 288.9 325.2 333.4 4.3 .4 5.0 .5 6.2 .4 7.2 .6 8.1 .6 9.0 .7 10.1 .8 11.8 1.1 13.6 1.1 14.8 1.1 16.0 1.0 16.3 1.1 Total functions not included in human resources grouping.... 4.7 5.6 6.6 7.8 8.7 9.8 10.9 12.8 14.7 15.9 17.0 17.4 Total domestic transfer payments 87.2 101.8 131.4 153.8 166.6 178.7 197.8 234.6 273.4 304.8 342.2 350.9 Veterans benefits and services Total, human resources programs ALL OTHER FUNCTIONS National defense (military retired pay) All other functions 1 Includes both $50 tax rebates and earned income tax credits in excess of tax liabilities. Note—Excludes the transition quarter. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Grants-in-aid.—These expenditures help State and local governments to provide general public services and to finance programs for the needy. Table B-7 shows detail on grants-in-aid by budget function and major activity. Grant expenditures are discussed in greater detail in Special Analysis H of this document. While the definition of Federal aid used in that analysis differs somewhat from that used in the NIA, the two sets of data largely overlap. Special Analysis H explains the relationship between the series. There is a substantial degree of substitutability between grantsin-aid and domestic transfer payments and—to a lesser degree— nondefense purchases. For example, low-income veterans could be eligible for free medical care under medicaid (Federal grants to finance State and local purchases), in a veterans hospital (nondefense purchases), or, perhaps under medicare (transfer payments). The supplemental security income transfer payments have substituted for the previous program of grants to States for public assistance for the elderly and handicapped. (The State and local spending of Federal grant money for public assistance programs is classified as State and local government transfer payments.) Most grants in the income security function plus medicaid are grants to assist States to provide income support; most other grants finance State and local services to the public. (However, the income support may be aid in-kind as is the case of medicaid where the State and local spending is to purchase medical care for the poor.) One of the major thrusts of this administration is to reduce both the level and complexity of Federal grant programs, and to surrender to State and local governments tax sources that they may tap to finance from their own revenues those portions of programs currently financed by grants that they choose to retain. Despite this general effort to reduce the growth rates in grants-in-aid, there is one major administration initiative for expanding Federal grants-in-aid. This initiative—a major increase in highway construction and mass transportation grants—was enacted by the Congress last month and will have a major effect starting next year. w I Table B - 7 . FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (In billions of dollars) Description Actual 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 Estimate 1979 1978 1980 1982 1981 1984 1983 HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Public assistance cash 1 Child nutrition and other food programsOther 5.9 1.1 .5 5.4 1.2 .5 5.1 1.7 .9 5.8 2.1 1.2 6.3 2.7 1.3 6.6 2.8 1.3 6.5 3.3 1.5 7.2 3.6 3.0 8.4 4.4 4.3 7.9 4.2 4.6 8.1 4.8 4.5 7.4 4.4 4.0 7.5 7.1 7.7 9.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 13.8 17.1 16.7 17.4 15.8 4.6 5.8 6.8 8.6 9.8 10.6 12.4 13.9 16.8 17.3 19.3 20.7 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.9 3.0 6.3 7.8 9.2 11.4 12.7 13.4 15.1 16.7 19.9 20.5 22.2 23.7 Education, training, employment, and social services: Education Training and employment Social services 3.6 2.2 3.0 3.5 1.9 2.9 4.6 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.6 3.8 4.9 6.0 4.4 5.5 9.5 5.0 6.6 9.2 5.8 7.3 8.5 5.0 7.4 7.1 5.4 6.9 3.8 5.3 6.9 3.5 6.0 6.6 3.5 5.9 Subtotal, education, training, employment, and social services.... 8.7 8.4 11.7 13.9 15.4 20.0 21.6 20.7 19.9 16.1 16.4 16.0 * * * .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .2 Subtotal, income security Health: Medicaid Other (includes research, construction, services, and medical training) Subtotal, health Veterans benefits and services Total, human resources programs Natural resources and environment 22.5 23.3 28.7 34.5 38.5 44.2 48.1 51.3 57.0 53.5 56.2 55.7 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.0 3.6 H ffi M W c! u o 3 ^ o w (XI o> t-1 w > w CD 00 ^ Community and regional development: Local public works Block grants Other .6 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.9 2.4 1.5 3.1 1.7 .4 4.0 1.9 .1 4.3 4.1 1.1 3.9 1.0 3.9 .7 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.4 6.8 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.2 4.9 4.7 5.3 5.3 5.8 7.5 7.7 8.1 9.5 11.8 12.2 10.8 12.1 15.7 6.6 6.1 6.1 ......... 6.2 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.6 1.3 .4 .4 .4 1.7 .5 .9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.7 9.0 8.9 7.8 7.9 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.8 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.1 3.9 3.3 4.0 4.6 Total other functions.. 17.9 18.4 19.7 23.0 27.7 30.4 31.0 35.4 33.1 29.9 30.7 34.4 Total grants-in-aid 40.4 41.6 48.4 57.5 66.3 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 83.4 86.9 90.1 Subtotal, community and regional development Transportation. General purpose fiscal assistance.General revenue sharing Anti-recession fiscal assistanceOther Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance All other functions *50 million or less. 1.6 W Note—Excludes the transition quarter. W I B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Foreign transfer payments.—There are three major types of foreign transfer payments: expenditure of dollars to assist foreign economic development, grants of surplus agricultural products, and payments under social security and similar programs to individuals living abroad. Although payments to individuals are gradually rising (roughly in proportion with the rise in GNP), total foreign transfer payments have declined to less than 0.2% of GNP. The peak year for foreign transfer payments was 1949; in that year they were equal to 1.9% of GNP. Net .interest paid.—Net interest depends on the size of Federal debt, loans outstanding, and the interest rates on borrowing and lending. In the early post-war years (1947-48), net interest paid amounted to over 13% of total Federal sector NIA expenditures, but it accounted for around 6-7% of the total each year from 1952 to 1977. Net interest paid rose from 6.9% of Federal sector expenditures in 1977 to 9.9% in 1981 and an estimated 12.2% in 1984. In recent years foreign holdings of Federal debt have increased significantly. This expansion, combined with higher interest rates, pushed up the amount of interest paid abroad to over $17.6 billion in 1982, over five times the $3.2 billion total in 1973. These foreign interest payments are partially offset by interest collections from abroad; in 1973 such collections totaled $0.9 billion and in 1982 they totaled $3.7 billion. The increase in foreign holdings of Federal debt and in interest payments on that debt is discussed further in Special Analysis E. Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises.—Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises consist of two elements: (1) subsidy payments to resident businesses (including farms); and (2) the "current surplus" or "deficit" of Government enterprises. In this context, a subsidy is a monetary grant to a unit engaged in commercial activities. Examples are housing subsidies, subsidies for railroads, and the construction and operating differential subsidies paid to operators of U.S.-flag merchant ships. As table B-8 shows, roughly half of the subsidies are for housing programs. These subsidies are designed mainly to reduce the cost of housing to moderate- and low-income families. "Government enterprise" is the term used in the NIA to designate certain business-type operations of the Government, which usually appear in the budget as public enterprise revolving funds. The operating costs of Government enterprises are, to a great extent, covered by the sale of goods and services to the public rather than from tax receipts. The difference between the sales and the current operating expenses of a Government enterprise constitutes its surplus or deficit. As noted above, the capital formation of Government enterprises is classified as nondefense purchases. The SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll largest Government enterprises are the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Postal Service (which is not now included in the budget), and the Tennessee Valley Authority. The large swing in the Postal Service deficit in 1982 is largely due to postal rate increases. Table B-8 shows the composition of this aggregation by major category. Table B - 8 . SUBSIDIES LESS CURRENT SURPLUS OF GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES (In billions of dollars) inscription Subsidies: Commodity Credit Corporation Rural housing insurance fund Other Department of Agriculture Maritime Housing (HUD) Railroad and mass transit Other 1 Actual 1974 1973 1975 1977 1976 Estimate 1979 1978 1980 1981 1982 1984 1983 3.6 .1 .4 .4 1.7 .1 1.1 2.4 .1 .3 .4 1.9 .1 .1 0.6 .2 .4 .5 2.1 .5 .1 0.3 .3 .3 .5 2.3 .9 .4 0.6 .4 .3 .5 2.9 1.3 .3 2.3 .4 .4 .5 3.5 1.4 .3 2.0 .6 .3 .5 4.3 1.5 .6 0.5 .6 .3 .6 5.1 2.0 .5 1.4 .8 .3 .5 6.7 2.2 .1 1.6 1.4 .2 .5 7.7 2.0 .1 6.9 1.3 .3 .5 9.1 1.9 .1 6.4 1.2 .4 .4 9.8 1.3 .1 7.4 5.4 4.4 5.0 6.4 8.9 9.9 9.5 12.0 13.5 20.0 19.6 1.3 1.7 -.2 -.3 -.1 1.0 2.2 -.3 -1 -.1 .3 2.5 -.3 -2 -.2 .2 2.6 -.4 -.2 -.2 .2 2.0 -.6 -.2 -.2 .8 1.9 -.6 -.2 -.3 1.3 1.0 -.8 -.2 -.3 1.6 2.1 -1.1 -.4 -.3 1.9 1.7 -1.0 -.4 -.4 2.2 -.9 -.5 -.6 4.4 1.5 -1.0 -.3 -.9 2.9 2.1 -1.3 -.5 -.5 -.1 -.2 -.2 -.4 -.2 -.5 -.2 -.6 -.2 -.4 -.3 -.6 -.3 -.8 -.3 -.7 -.7 -.2 -.8 -.5 -1.1 -.4 -1.3 Subtotal 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 .5 .8 _* 1.0 1.0 -.8 2.1 1.1 Total subsidies less current surplus 9.2 7.6 6.0 6.2 6.9 9.7 9.9 10.5 13.1 12.8 22.1 20.7 Subtotal Enterprise surpluses ( - ) or deficits: Commodity Credit Corporation Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority Federal Housing Administration Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation All other 2 * $50 million or less. 1 Includes subsidies by the disaster loan fund of $0.7 billion in 1973. 2 Includes wage disbursements less accruals. Note.—Excludes the transition quarter. * * SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Wage disbursements less accruals.—This is an adjustment item occasionally made in the NIA when it is necessary to take account of the fact that wages and salaries are not always received at the same time as they are earned. The national income component of wages and salaries is counted in the GNP on an accrual basis; that is, when the income is earned rather than when it is received. Personal income, however, including wage and salary disbursements, is estimated on the basis of when the cash is received. Ordinarily, wage and salary payments disbursed in one period but earned in the preceding period are approximately offset by payments disbursed in the next period but earned in the current period. The adjustment between national income and personal income is then small or zero. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES Table B-9 presents quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures (at seasonally adjusted annual rates) for 1982 to 1984. The translation of the budget into the NIA categories is inexact. When the annual NIA estimates are converted into quarterly distributions that are seasonally adjusted at annual rates, greater imprecision must be expected. The data presented in table B-9 are the best available estimates of the quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures consistent with the 1984 budget, but should be used with clear recognition of their limitations. Table B - 9 . FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NIA, QUARTERLY, 1982-84 (In billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Actual Description Estimated Oct.-Dec. 1981 Jan-Mar. 1982 Apr-June 1982 July-Sept. 1982 Oct.-Dec. 1982 Jan.-Mar. 1983 Apr-June 1983 July-Sept. 1983 Oct.-Dec. 1983 Jan.-Mar. 1984 Apr-June 1984 July-Sept. 1984 300.9 59.1 57.2 208.4 299.9 46.5 48.7 214.9 305.8 45.2 49.8 216.2 295.6 49.8 50.8 217.5 299.3 50.8 50.7 217.4 293.1 50.7 53.0 230.2 300.2 50.5 59.7 234.8 295.9 49.8 58.8 237.8 296.9 51.5 58.7 241.9 299.4 56.0 59.2 268.2 305.2 61.7 59.5 271.2 319.2 68.3 59.8 273.9 625.7 609.9 617.0 613.7 618.2 627.0 645.2 642.3 649.0 682.8 697.6 721.2 250.5 (166.9) (83.6) 300.7 (294.0) (6.6) 249.7 (166.2) (83.5) 303.2 (297.2) (6.0) 244.3 (176.2) (68.2) 312.8 (307.0) (5.8) 259.0 (182.7) (76.3) 327.4 (321.8) (5.6) 276.1 (188.9) (87.2) 344.0 (337.0) (7.0) 278.9 (196.2) (82.7) 346.5 (340.5) (6.0) 272.8 (202.1) (70.7) 350.6 (344.4) (6.2) 288.0 (210.3) (77.7) 352.2 (345.8) (6.4) 300.9 (219.7) (81.2) 348.3 (341.8) (6.5) 302.4 (226.2) (76.2) 359.8 (353.3) (6.5) 297.8 (232.3) (65.5) 360.9 (354.4) (6.5) 308.9 (237.8) (71.1) 361.5 (355.0) (6.5) 83.6 79.0 83.0 79.6 85.0 82.8 82.0 88.7 84.2 88.2 86.5 90.8 88.1 93.6 89.2 97.0 89.5 100.7 90.0 104.6 90.1 108.5 90.4 112.6 13.6 .1 12.7 .2 11.6 12.6 23.4 20.1 20.3 24.5 21.4 20.3 19.7 21.4 727.4 728.3 736.6 769.7 815.9 822.8 825.4 850.9 860.8 877.1 877.0 894.8 -101.7 -118.4 -119.6 -156.0 -197.8 -195.8 -180.2 -208.6 -211.8 -194.3 -179.4 -173.6 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.... Contributions for social insurnce Total, receipts EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic (to "persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures Deficit ( - ) Note.—Because of the methods normally used seasonally adjusting NIA data, the average of seasonally adjusted data for the 4 quarters of a fiscal year may not be equal to the unadjusted fiscal year total. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A RELATIONSHIP OF T H E B U D G E T TO T H E F E D E R A L SECTOR NIA Table B-10 shows the major differences between the budget and the Federal sector of the NIA. These differences are explained below. Table B - 1 0 . RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR, NIA (In billions of dollars) 1980 actual 1981 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 517.1 599.3 617.8 597.5 659.7 8.6 7.0 -6.6 -1.2 .2 9.7 8.0 -1.1 -1.3 .1 10.7 9.3 -18.2 -1.6 .2 12.2 11.7 8.2 -1.7 14.0 13.9 -.3 -1.9 .2 525.1 614.7 618.2 627.9 685.6 576.7 657.2 728.4 805.2 848.5 Lending and financial transactions -10.3 8.6 Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)... Other netting and grossing 7.0 -.2 Defense timing adjustment 2.8 Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases -4.4 Geographic exclusions Other -3.2 -7.4 9.7 8.0 -1.8 7.8 -4.5 -2.5 -5.3 10.7 9.3 -1.2 2.7 -4.6 -.3 -3.8 12.2 11.7 -1.7 8.3 -4.8 1.9 -3.8 14.0 13.9 -2.5 7.9 -4.9 4.2 666.5 739.7 829.0 877.3 RECEIPTS Total budget receipts Government contributions for employee retirement (grossing).. Other netting and grossing Adjustment to accruals Geographic exclusions Other Federal sector, NIA receipts * EXPENDITURES Total budget outlays Federal sector, NIA expenditures 577.0 *$50 million or less. Lending and financial transactions.—Conceptually, the national income and product accounts measure the Nation's current income and production, and therefore do not include transactions, such as loans, that are an exchange of existing assets and liabilities rather than current income or production. Loan transactions have a significant economic impact, affecting income and output, but they are analyzed more appropriately within a financial market framework, such as provided by the flow-of-funds data of the Federal Reserve Board. Special Analysis E (Borrowing and Investment) and Special Analysis F (Federal Credit Programs) both contain information on the financial market implications of the budget. Most of the lending and financial transactions displayed in table B-10 are shown in Special Analysis F. However, this total differs from the total for direct loans shown in Special Analysis F because: (a) the NIA records nonrecourse agricultural commodity loans as purchases rather than loans; (b) capital contributions to international financial institutions are not loans, but are financial transactions excluded from the NIA; and (c) Special Analysis F includes B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 lending by off-budget Federal entities; these loans do not require reconciliation with the NIA because they are not included in the budget outlay totals. Government contribution for employee retirement.—The contributions of Government agencies to the retirement trust funds of their employees are not included in the budget totals. While the outlays are recorded in each agency's budget, they are offset by an intragovernmental deduction. However, the NIA counts Government payments for employee retirement as part of the compensation paid to Government employees and, therefore, as Government expenditures; this treatment maintains comparability with the treatment of employee retirement contributions in the rest of the economy. Contributions for employee retirement by Government enterprises such as the Postal Service are recorded as an increase in the current deficit of enterprises. Contributions by other accounts are recorded as purchases of goods and services. The receipt of these retirement contributions is treated in the NIA as contributions for social insurance. Since receipts and expenditures are increased by identical amounts, this treatment has no effect on the surplus or deficit. Around 80% of these payments go to the civil service retirement fund, while most of the remainder is for social security. Other netting and grossing.—The budget normally counts as receipts only income from taxation or similar sources that arises from the exercise of governmental power to compel payment. Money received in the course of business-type transactions, therefore, is normally shown as offsets against outlays. For instance, receipts from social insurance programs operated by the Veterans Administration (such as the National Service Life Insurance and U.S. Government Life Insurance) are netted against outlays in the budget since these programs are voluntary, commercial-type activities. However, in the NIA these insurance premiums are treated as social insurance receipts just as are receipts from compulsory Government programs. Similarly, noncompulsory insurance premiums under the supplementary medical insurance program (totaling $4.4 billion in 1984) and similar but much smaller noncompulsory hospital insurance premiums are classified as offsetting collections (negative outlays) in the budget but they are classified as social insurance contributions in the NIA. Other netting and grossing includes some imputed contributions for social insurance for Federal employees for unemployment compensation (which adds an equal amount to nondefense purchases) and workmen's compensation (which adds an equal amount to domestic transfer payments). SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll One major element of netting and grossing in recent years has been due to budgetary collections arising from the Outer Continental Shelf leases. All such collections are recorded in the budget as negative outlays. The rents and royalties component—but not the bonuses—are recorded in the NIA as indirect business nontaxes; this converts the money from an offset to outlays in the budget to a receipt in the NIA. Timing adjustments.—The budget records receipts at the time the cash is collected regardless of when the income is earned, and outlays (except interest paid to the public) are generally recorded at the time the checks are issued. The NIA attempts to record most receipts from the business sector in the time period in which the income is earned rather than when taxes are actually paid, while personal income taxes and social insurance contributions are recorded at the time of payment by the individual taxpayer rather than when the liability is accrued or the cash is received by Treasury. The principal timing adjustment to expenditures is for defense purchases. The major defense timing adjustment normally involves procurement items (such as missiles and airplanes) purchased under most fixed-price contracts. These items are recorded in the Federal sector NIA as defense purchases at the time of delivery to the Federal Government, rather than when the payment is made (as the budget does) or when they are fabricated. Work in progress is counted as part of private business inventories until the goods are completed and delivered to the Government. An additional defense timing adjustment is made to convert foreign military sales, which are recorded on a cash basis in the unified budget, to a basis consistent with net exports in the NIA. In addition, some accounting adjustments are included with the defense timing adjustment in this translation. Since both the budget and the NIA record public debt interest to the public when it accrues, no timing adjustment is needed for most interest transactions. Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases.—In recent years bonuses paid on the Outer Continental Shelf oil leases have become a significant reconciliation item between the unified budget and the NIA. As already noted, the budget records these bonuses as proprietary receipts and, therefore, deducts them from budget outlays. The NIA excludes these transactions as being a transfer of assets, because the payments are not included in calculating book profits under current corporate accounting practice. Geographic exclusions.—Geographic exclusions arise because Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. territories are not included in the United States for purposes of computing the GNP B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 and related data series (such as social insurance taxes, domestic transfer payments, and grants-in-aid) but also are not treated as foreign for purposes of producing data on exports, imports, and foreign transfer payments. Since the budget includes receipts from and payments to persons and local governments in these territories and the NIA excludes such transactions, this constitutes a major reconciliation item between the two data series. Other.—This category contains miscellaneous adjustments, such as the NIA expenditures by off-budget Federal entities and foreign currency transactions that are included in the NIA but not in the budget. Table B - l l . FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS, 1 9 7 3 - 8 4 (In billions of dollars) Actual Description RECEIPTS, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Personal taxes and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and and nontax accruals Contributions of social insurance Total receipts, national income basis EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures, income basis national Excess of receipts ( + ) or expenditures (—), national income basis *$50 million or less. Estimate 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 107.4 41.2 122.7 43.4 127.5 41.8 137.2 52.5 166.4 58.9 186.5 67.3 222.6 76.1 250.1 70.0 291.7 70.9 303.0 50.1 293.1 50.5 304.1 59.4 20.7 71.5 21.4 84.2 22.2 91.9 24.3 101.0 24.5 116.2 27.2 133.3 29.1 153.1 34.7 170.3 55.7 196.3 50.7 214.4 55.2 229.1 59.3 262.8 CO 240.7 271.6 283.4 314.9 365.9 414.3 480.8 525.1 614.7 618.2 627.9 685.6 M O > r > 101.1 (72.8) (28.4) 89.8 (87.2) (2.7) 104.5 (73.6) (30.9) 104.8 (101.8) (3.0) 117.9 (80.2) (37.7) 134.5 (131.4) (3.1) 125.1 (84.4) (40.7) 156.8 (153.8) (3.0) 139.8 (91.4) (48.4) 169.8 (166.6) (3.2) 150.4 (97.8) (52.6) 182.2 (178.7) (3.5) 164.1 (108.2) (55.9) 201.8 (197.8) (4.1) 189.8 (126.5) (63.3) 239.4 (234.6) (4.8) 218.1 (146.6) (71.5) 279.2 (273.4) (5.7) 250.1 (173.0) (77.1) 310.8 (304.8) (6.0) 279.0 (199.4) (79.6) 348.6 (342.2) (6.4) 302.5 (229.0) (73.5) 357.4 (350.9) (6.5) 40.4 15.7 41.6 19.6 48.4 21.7 57.5 25.2 66.3 28.4 74.7 33.5 79.1 40.6 86.7 50.6 90.1 66.2 83.4 82.5 86.9 92.4 90.1 106.6 9.2 -.5 7.6 .2 6.0 .4 6.2 6.9 9.7 9.9* 10.5 13.1 -.1 12.8 .1 22.1 20.7 255.7 278.2 328.8 370.7 411.2 450.4 495.6 577.0 666.5 739.7 829.0 877.3 -14.9 -6.6 -45.4 -55.8 -45.3 -36.1 -14.8 -51.9 -51.9 -121.5 -201.1 -191.7 Note—Excludes the transition quarter. >H t K! GO GO W W i to PART 2 ANALYSES OF THE BUDGET TOTALS INTRODUCTION Part 2 provides analyses and tabulations of the budget totals that cover Government finances and operations as a whole, and reflect the ways in which Government finances affect the economy. These special analyses are designated C through I. Special Analysis C (Funds in the Budget) classifies budget information by the groups of funds (Federal and trust) that comprise the budget. Special Analysis D (Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays) classifies budget outlays in terms of the duration and nature of the benefits provided, distinguishing those of an investment or developmental type from those that primarily yield current benefits. Apart from this analysis, the U.S. budget includes outlays that are for "capital" or investment-type activities in the same accounts in which "current" activities and costs are shown. Special Analyses E (Borrowing and Debt) describes current developments and past trends in Federal borrowing and debt. It also considers interest on the Federal debt, investment by Government accounts in Federal securities, the statutory debt limit, and the total of Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public. Special Analysis F (Federal Credit Programs) explains the operation of the credit budget, which applies budgetary controls on Federal lending activities. The Special Analysis Provides information on direct loans, guarantees of private loans, and loans of Government-sponsored enterprises. It also includes aggregate measures of total credit supplied to the public and credit raised from the public under Federal auspices. Special Analysis G (Tax Expenditures) provides a discussion of revenues losses due to provisions of the Federal income tax laws that allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or that provide a special credit, preferential rate of tax, or deferral of tax liability. Special Analysis H (Federal Aid to State and Local Governments) contains information on Federal grants to State and local governments and assistance provided through loans and tax expenditures. It shows Federal aid for past years and relates it to the finances of both the Federal Government and State and local governments. This analysis provides a profile of Federal grants by region, a description of the State and local government sector of the national income accounts, and an identification of other grant information sources. Special Analysis I (Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch) deals with the levels of civilian employment in the executive branch and the systems used to control civilian employment. It also contains figures on total Federal personnel costs (including military personnel). 2-2 SPECIAL ANALYSIS C FUNDS IN THE BUDGET This analysis provides information on the two major fund groups, Federal and trust, that together after deducting interfund transactions, as shown in Table C-1, comprise the budget totals. Table C - 1 . BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS, BY FUND GROUP (In millions of dollars) Description 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate RECEIPTS Federal funds-. Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Receipts, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Receipts, trust funds Interfund transactions Total budget receipts 442,116 -3,132 -17,287 -12,444 422,301 -7,097 -23,903 -14,357 450,243 -5,752 -24,340 -15,406 409,253 376,945 404,745 289,030 -1,858 -17,033 -1,732 338,155 -3,267 -17,982 -2,152 357,081 -4,481 -19,941 -2,450 268,407 314,755 330,210 -59,894 -94,206 -75,253 617,766 597,494 659,702 558,976 -3,132 -17,287 -12,444 648,403 -7,097 -23,903 -14,357 655,965 -5,752 -24,340 -15,406 526,113 603,047 610,467 282,778 -1,858 -17,033 -1,732 319,761 -3,267 -17,982 -2,152 340,140 -4,481 -19,941 -2,450 OUTLAYS Federal funds-. Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Outlays, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Outlays, trust funds Interfund transactions Total budget outlays Budget deficit 262,155 296,361 313,269 -59,894 -94,206 -75,253 728,375 805,202 848,483 -110,609 -207,708 -188,781 C-1 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 The Federal funds are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. Most of these funds are not restricted by law to any specific Government program. The trust funds, on the other hand, collect certain taxes and other receipts for specified purposes, such as payment of social security benefits, in accordance with the terms of a trust agreement or statute. Amounts collected by the funds are classified either as budget receipts, also called governmental receipts, or as offsets to budget outlays, known as offsetting collections, depending on the following criteria. Amounts collected by the Federal Government from the public that arise from the exercise of governmental or sovereign powers are treated as budget receipts. Gifts and contributions to the Government are also included in this category. Amounts collected from other Government accounts or from transactions with the public that are of a business-type or marketoriented nature, such as the sale of services or goods are treated as deductions from spending in arriving at budget outlays.1 FEDERAL FUNDS The Federal fund group is comprised of the general fund, special funds, public enterprise (revolving) funds, and intragovernmental funds. Intragovernmental funds include intragovernmental revolving funds, management funds, and consolidated working funds. Federal fund budget receipts and outlays.—In 1984, the Federal fund budget receipts are estimated at $404.7 billion and outlays are estimated at $610.5 billion. The following table, C-2, presents the distribution of budget receipts by source and outlays by agency for the Federal fund group. The Federal fund budget receipts shown in the table are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing. They are comprised of the amounts collected by the general and special funds that are governmental in nature. Proprietary receipts from the public of the general and special funds arise from market-oriented transactions and thus are offsetting receipts rather than budget receipts. The Federal fund outlays shown are net of all collections credited to the public enterprise and intragovernmental funds and the proprietary receipts of the general and special funds. 1 Additional information on budget receipts and offsetting collections is provided in Part 7 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1984. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table C - 2 . FEDERAL FUND RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Description 1983 estimate 1984 estimate RECEIPTS BY SOURCE Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs duties Miscellaneous receipts Total receipts, Federal funds 297,744 49,207 28,670 7,991 8,824 16,817 285,194 35,286 25,630 6,114 8,789 15,932 295,589 51,770 25,336 5,902 9,107 17,042 409,253 376,945 404,745 1,361 700 95 5,886 36,213 2,046 182,849 2,948 14,080 7,578 65,779 14,491 3,955 2,585 8,762 2,318 10,371 111,055 5,029 6,026 23,517 24,719 1,524 816 102 6,787 44,920 1,966 208,920 2,906 14,396 8,711 90,302 14,853 4,079 2,955 18,539 2,437 10,345 119,542 4,242 6,713 23,923 26,269 1,581 903 109 7,476 34,933 1,667 238,595 2,359 13,496 8,822 70,450 13,737 3,589 3,262 10,721 2,669 9,884 137,526 3,873 6,973 25,192 24,598 949 -6,250 -11,793 -408 -11,895 -1,003 526,113 603,047 610,467 -116,860 -226,102 -205,721 OUTLAYS BY AGENCY Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Agriculture Commerce Defense—Military Defense—Civil Education Energy Health and Human Services Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies Allowances 1 Undistributed offsetting receipts-. Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf Federal surplus property disposition Total outlays, Federal funds Excess of outlays ( — ) •Includes allowance for increased employing agency payments for employee retirement. Obligations.—The obligations (net) for Federal funds are estimated at $646.2 billion for 1984, as set forth in table C-3. These transactions flow largely from budget authority for Federal funds of $640.3 billion for the year, although some flow from prior years' budget authority. 380-700 0 - 83 - 6 QL : 3 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table C - 3 . OBLIGATIONS INCURRED, NET, IN FEDERAL FUNDS (In millions of dollars) Department or other unit Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Agriculture Commerce Defense—Military Defense—Civil Education Energy Health and Human Services Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Federal Home Loan Bank Board General Services Administration Office of Personnel Management U.S. Postal Service Railroad Retirement Board All other independent agencies Allowances: Increased employing agency payments for employee retirement Undistributed offsetting receipts: Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf... Federal surplus property disposition Total 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1,397 716 93 5,301 39,984 1,915 205,751 2,898 14,423 10,115 63,697 39,964 3,738 2,534 8,292 2,355 10,527 111,203 3,281 5,898 23,798 1,609 823 101 7,928 40,596 1,749 235,063 3,059 14,604 8,790 85,288 29,647 4,126 2,980 18,618 2,615 10,458 119,582 4,096 7,380 24,417 1,596 913 111 7,911 32,457 1,411 266,444 2,602 12,731 8,665 70,139 25,256 3,422 3,288 11,318 2,701 8,658 137,551 3,392 7,140 25,540 1,946 306 1 15,623 707 389 6,157 2,064 256 884 16,920 789 430 7,231 1,708 -703 219 16,211 400 350 6,746 949 -6,250 -11,793 -408 -11,895 -1,003 576,759 639,903 646,226 Balances of Federal fund budget authority.—Table C-4 shows the balances of budget authority carried forward in Federal funds at the end of each fiscal year. To the extent that valid Government obligations have been incurred and remain unpaid, amounts sufficient to pay them (obligated balances) may be carried over into the next year. Unobligated balances may be carried forward in accordance with specific provisions of law, usually in order to permit completion of major procurement or major construction programs that are fully funded, to provide funding for activities of a continuing nature (such as research and development), for financing loan programs, for standby emergency purposes, or for reserves for losses and debt redemption. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Public enterprise funds.—The public enterprise funds conduct a cycle of business-type operations, primarily with the public, on behalf of the Government. These funds are usually supplied with capital from the general fund, and in a few cases they may borrow from the public or from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). These funds also obtain capital by selling financial assets to the FFB. Data on public enterprise funds are included net of collections in tables C - l through C-4. Additional information on the gross outlays and applicable collections are shown in table C-5. Collections of public enterprise funds are estimated at $53.3 billion in 1984, and gross outlays are planned to total $67.0 billion, resulting in net outlays of $13.7 billion. TRUST FUNDS There are two types of trust funds—revolving and nonrevolving. Trust revolving funds are similar to intragovernmental revolving funds and public enterprise funds in that they conduct a cycle of business-type operations and are normally stated net of collections. Cash operations.—Trust fund receipts are estimated at $330.2 billion in 1984, with outlays planned at $313.3 billion, as shown in tables C - l and C-6. The transactions of the Federal old-age and survivors insurance and disability insurance funds are far larger than any other trust fund. In fiscal years 1982-84, trust funds have excesses of receipts of the following amounts (in millions of dollars): 1982 actual Total receipts, trust funds Total outlays, trust funds Excess of receipts or outlays ( — ) , trust funds 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 268,407 262,155 314,755 296,361 330,210 313,269 6,252 18,393 16,941 Table C - 4 . FEDERAL FUND BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY (In millions of dollars) ueparimeni or oiner unu Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Agriculture Commerce Defense—Military Defense—Civil Education Energy Start 1982 Obligated 208 56 End 1982 Obligated Unobligated 244 8 217 63 245 6 20 24,320 12,651 1,683 86,147 734 10,924 8,151 End 1983 Unobligated 22,729 16,291 1,409 107,512 684 11,246 7,178 302 70 End 1984 Unobligated 146 2 14 15 19,728 1,272 362 26,430 336 1,761 6,099 Obligated 21,577 1,339 362 34,548 412 1,944 1,121 23,859 11,945 1,190 133,672 837 11,453 7,244 Obligated 316 80 Unobligated 138 1 15 20,883 1,829 187 38,467 317 1,067 360 24,281 9,469 939 161,521 1,080 10,688 7,087 20,665 2,141 186 45,421 39 1,361 191 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table C - 4 . FEDERAL FUND BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) End 1982 Start 1982 Health and Human Services Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Federal Home Loan Bank Board General Services Administration Office of Personnel Management Railroad Retirement Board All other independent agencies Total End 1983 Unobligated Obligated End 1984 Obligated Unobligated 12,827 655 10,625 684 5,610 230 5,300 126 260,454 2,520 460 2,413 567 10,548 339 12,655 624 119 1,142 100 1,818 25,521 205,721 2,152 394 1,707 561 10,613 2,085 71,346 644 171 1,737 136 2,059 29,419 216,393 2,150 419 1,434 738 10,727 2,126 55,308 282 112 385 50 1,223 29,532 224,933 1,970 445 1,750 770 9,501 2,132 34,946 232 188 817 49 875 29,580 12,414 1,107 9,967 2,009 9,821 1,422 9,340 1,419 1,457 2,507 550 2,123 1,322 2,737 661 2,498 1,989 3,230 113 2,236 2,156 3,578 71 1,944 8,877 Obligated 8,978 Unobligated 8,963 Obligated Unobligated 8,331 149 9,240 1,043 8,934 2,196 8,678 2,209 9,381 636 766 346 1,045 716 464 820 496 24 5 87 67 105 135 94 36 * 8 11 8 8 8 5,202 2,975 3,218 2,908 3,097 2,508 3,049 2,634 466,284 115,650 428,909 185,880 460,301 165,945 491,856 152,944 *500 thousand or less. Table C - 5 . PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUND TRANSACTIONS (In millions of dollars) Gross outlays Applicable collections Description Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation Farmers Home Administration: Rural housing insurance fund Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural development insurance fund Federal Crop Insurance Corporation ... Commerce Education Energy Health and Human Services Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 217 253 306 10,308 19,004 27,733 19,564 7,803 2,684 8,538 9,411 4,922 10,822 10,600 12,099 12,193 11,332 12,880 2,032 351 100 179 1,490 70 1,757 254 101 186 2,329 74 2,278 273 169 200 2,925 46 2,444 454 177 215 1,543 91 2,398 328 147 208 2,375 122 2,826 394 151 126 2,859 76 2,470 2,524 2,101 3,936 3,501 2,640 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 75 122 142 7,422 9,471 7,292 1982 actual 1982 actual A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table C - 5 . PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUND TRANSACTIONS—Continued (In millions of dollars) Applicable collections Description Urban renewal programs Low-rent public housing Federal Housing Administration Fund Other Interior: Bureau of Reclamation Other Labor Transportation Treasury Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Revolving fund National Credit Union Administration Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority All other not included above Total Offsetting collections from the public Offsetting collections from other accounts Gross outlays 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 33 984 17 1,007 8 1,007 1,840 425 2,199 987 382 24 157 174 742 1,132 1982 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 122 963 87 1,109 58 1,143 2,732 1,232 1,603 1,132 1,870 1,258 1,185 1,268 386 26 177 198 162 1,600 439 27 291 113 174 1,047 374 18 90 209 214 1,185 386 36 146 288 2 1,183 439 35 133 115 2 1,236 3,108 3,452 3,951 4,281 4,644 5,385 293 447 503 305 517 584 1,168 63 1,521 71 1,377 71 577 66 624 71 661 71 213 1,435 4,112 430 231 1,437 4,662 465 245 1,465 4,805 577 201 1,850 5,590 205 251 1,766 6,012 222 261 1,462 5,815 378 49,018 54,266 53,289 67,797 78,280 66,975 (32,725) (39,008) (41,641) (16,293) (15,259) (11,648) Table C - 6 . OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS OF TRUST FUNDS (In millions of dollars) Outlays Description 1982 actual Receipts 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Federal employees retirement funds, Unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Foreign military sales trust fund Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds 155,964 5,389 884 990 19,673 24,282 50,423 8,035 1,512 170,491 6,846 724 1,015 21,325 35,700 57,262 8,642 2,172 180,761 7,605 707 1,040 22,653 30,800 64,681 11,953 2,533 148,027 4,855 774 1,195 31,979 20,491 55,238 7,822 674 172,233 6,385 722 1,213 35,180 32,000 59,533 9,552 2,776 175,943 7,732 707 1,232 37,786 31,800 66,338 12,465 3,096 4,569 12,028 1,070 -2,040 4,567 12,800 1,421 -3,204 4,567 13,800 1,574 -2,534 4,567 11,839 1,569 4,567 12,300 1,693 4,567 13,400 2,015 Subtotal Intrafund transactions 282,778 -1,858 319,761 -3,267 340,140 -4,481 289,030 -1,858 338,155 -3,267 357,081 -4,481 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table C - 6 . OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS OF TRUST FUNDS—Continued (In millions of dollars) Outlays Receipts Description 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities -17,033 -17,982 -19,941 -17,033 -17,982 -19,941 -1,732 -2,152 -2,450 -1,732 -2,152 -2,450 262,155 296,361 313,269 268,407 314,755 330,210 Total Budget receipts by trust fund.—Table C-7 presents information classifying the trust fund receipts by major fund, and by source for each such fund. Budget outlays by trust fund.—Corresponding information on trust fund outlays, classifying the data for the larger funds, is found in table C-8. Balances of the trust funds.—Total balances of the trust funds continue to increase, as shown in the following end-of-year figures (in millions of dollars): 1981 actual Open book balances Investments in U.S. securities: Public debt Agency debt Total 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 9,348 9,959 8,899 8,013 188,737 1,015 194,697 765 214,153 765 231,970 765 199,100 205,421 223,817 240,748 A summary of the balances by fund is presented in table C-9. The amounts include both amounts on deposit with the Treasury (open-book balances) and investments in U.S. securities. These balances include both obligated and unobligated balances. The balances on a budget authority basis differ from the cash balances because, for a few accounts, contract authority (a form of budget authority) has been provided to a trust fund in advance of receiving moneys while unappropriated receipts are included in the cash balances but are not a part of the balances of budget authority. The note to Table C-9 lists these accounts and reconciles the balances on a budget authority basis with the cash balances. For 1984, the largest net investments are expected to be those of the Federal employees retirement fund. Trust revolving funds.—The activities of the trust revolving fund subgroup are shown in table C-10. The largest of these funds are those used by the Office of Personnel Management to buy insurance for Government employees. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table C - 7 . TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation 1982 actual 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 143,467 2,071 147,760 1,057 160,901 1,363 1,646 1,778 1,911 843 1,138 20,500 1,385 10,383 148,027 172,233 175,943 2,917 83 1,820 35 2,685 18 2,223 1,459 2,704 -66 2,513 2,581 4,855 6,385 7,732 491 283* 567 155* 608 136* 774 722 707 722 473 768 445 799 433 1,195 1,213 1,232 4,205 7,939 4,362 9,468 4,370 10,232 18,094 1,732 10 18,967 2,028 8 19,682 2,039 7 1,456 31,979 35,180 37,786 Unemployment trust fund: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Advances from the general fund Supplemental now requested 16,600 1,181 2,710 19,523 628 6,816 5,033 24,072 425 7,303 Subtotal, unemployment trust fund 20,491 32,000 31,800 Health insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Premiums and other charges 34,301 3,855 35,976 4,355 39,338 5,010 Subtotal, Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Receipts from other trust funds Other (mainly receipts of repayable advances) Subtotal, railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund: Excise taxes Advances from general fund Other receipts Legislative action required Subtotal, black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds: Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal, veterans life insurance trust funds.... Federal employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions ,.... Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement (including payment on prior year liabilities): Entities included in budget Entities excluded from budget Other receipts Proposed legislation Supplemental now requested Subtotal, Federal employees retirement funds.. -37 348 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table C - 7 . TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] 1982 actual Description Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement: Entities included in budget Entities excluded from budget Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation Subtotal, health insurance trust funds 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 2,303 2,155 1,623 397 934 124 1,168 169 14,381 16,118 -129 18,692 338 55,238 59,533 66,338 6,744 1,079 8,469 1,083 11,420 1,045 7,822 9,552 | _ 12,465 Highway trust funds: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities Subtotal, highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities 133 542 2,299 477 2,637 459 674 2,776 3,096 4,567 4,567 4,567 Foreign military sales trust fund 11,839 12,300 13,400 Other trust funds (nonrevolving) 1,569 1,693 2,015 289,030 -1,858 -17,033 -1,732 338,155 -3,267 -17,982 -2,152 357,081 -4,481 -19,941 -2,450 268,407 314,755 330,210 Subtotal, airport and airway trust fund State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Deposits for general revenue sharing Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Total receipts *$500 thousand or less. Table C - 8 . TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Payments to other trust funds Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Proposed for later transmittal under existing legislation Subtotal, Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account: Benefit payments and claims 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 1982 actual 152,054 1,820 2,090 166,625 3,200 2,722 -2,056 154,328 4,396 2,412 -4,140 23,765 155,964 170,491 180,761 5,296 5,640 5,381 A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table C-8. TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Repayment of benefit advances Administrative expenses and other Subtotal, railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund: Benefit payments Federal administrative expenses Interest on advances Supplemental now requested Legislative action required 1982 actual 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 50 42 1,159 47 2,169 55 5,389 6,846 7,605 578 36 270 447 35 188 54 501 37 206 -37 884 724 707 990 1,015 1,040 19,003 637 33 20,729 558 38 22,363613 39 -362 19,673 21,325 22,653 21,837 228 2,217 27,782 26,995 870 2,935 24,282 35,700 30,800 49,150 1,273 55,959 1,403 -100 65,061 1,476 -1,856 50,423 57,262 64,681 8,035 8,619 58 -35 12,232 8,035 8,642 11,953 Airport and airway trust fund 1,512 2,172 2,533 State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Payments for general revenue sharing 4,569 4,567 4,567 Foreign military sales trust fund 12,028 12,800 13,800 Other trust funds (nonrevolving) 1,070 1,421 1,574 -2,040 -3,204 -2,534 282,778 319,761 340,140 Subtotal, black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Federal employees retirement: Benefit payments and claims Refunds to former employees Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal employees retirement Unemployment trust fund: Withdrawals for benefit payments Repayment of advances from general fund Administrative expenses and other Supplemental now requested Subtotal, unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal, health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds (mainly grants to States): Current Supplemental now requested Legislative action required Subtotal, highway trust funds Trust revolving funds Subtotal 2,609 5,309 -279 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table C-8. TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] 1982 actual Description Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities 1984 estimate 1983 estimate -1,858 -17,033 -1,732 -3,267 -17,982 -2,152 -4,481 -19,941 -2,450 262,155 296,361 313,269 Total outlays Table C-9. TRUST FUND BALANCES (In millions of dollars) Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance funds Federal employees retirement funds Unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Foreign military sales trust fund Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Total.. As of Sept. 30 1981 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate 27,238 1,986 112 8,612 85,025 14,365 21,842 9,259 4,719 19,302 1,280 2 8,817 97,333 10,745 26,657 9,046 3,881 33,482 516 9,015 111,187 7,349 16,491 9,956 4,486 1,255 4,746 2,232 17,708 1,253 4,558 2,798 19,748 1,253 4,058 3,072 22,952 199,100 205,421 223,817 Note—The following table reconciles balances on a budget authority basis with the cash balances shown above. 1982 1981 Balance available on an authorization basis Unfinanced contract authority: Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Other Unappropriated receipts: Available as needed, on an indefinite basis Available for appropriation by Congress: Soldiers' Home permanent fund Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Hazardous substance response trust fund Inland waterways trust fund Other Retained as permanent endowment Balance available on a cash basis 1984 1983 220,914 229,983 255,049 276,816 -760 -18,487 -15,653 -756 -18,697 -17,077 -1,322 -23,570 -19,777 -1,571 -26,809 -21,877 - 1 - 1 5 6 4 4 98 3,774 9,034 78 22 70 6 119 2,844 8,600 229 55 108 6 139 3,376 9,438 371 100 1 6 155 3,342 9,813 457 375 35 6 199,100 205,421 223,817 240,748 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table C - 1 0 . TRUST REVOLVING FUND TRANSACTIONS (In millions of dollars) Offsetting collections Description Total trust revolving funds Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts 1 1984 estimate 6,331 3,380 573 7,922 3,071 592 8,901 2,735 620 5,800 1,940 505 7,066 771 545 8,449 715 559 10,284 11,585 12,256 8,245 8,382 9,723 (5,136) (5,149) (5,354) (6,231) (5,283) (6,973) 1982 actual Office of Personnel Management (employees' life insurance and health benefits).. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation All other trust revolving funds 1 Excludes right-of-way revolving fund which is a part of the highway trust funds. Gross outlays 1983 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate SPECIAL ANALYSIS D INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS This analysis divides Federal spending into two categories: that which is of an investment nature and that which is for operating and other purposes. There has been a growing interest in public capital investment and, in response, this analysis has been redesigned from earlier years and additional data have been provided. The major focus of the presentation continues to be spending for investment purposes, which is defined as outlays designed to yield benefits in future years. Such spending includes the acquisition of physical or financial assets, which yield a stream of services or financial returns over a number of years, as well as expenditures for research and development or education and training, which provide less tangible long-term benefits. Table D-1 summarizes Federal outlays—both on- and off-budget—that are classified as being of an investment nature. Federal investment-type outlays are made for a wide range of purposes, from foreign assistance loans to purchases of agricultural commodities under the price support program to grants State and local governments for physical investments (such as highway construction) to investment in major weapons systems. This analysis has been redesigned this year to present these diverse investments in historical perspective. While the basic tables are similar to those in previous years, a section has been added showing long-run trends in Federal outlays for public physical capital investment. The data in this analysis are shown in considerable detail. However, data classification problems are sufficiently great that often these data are approximate. One problem, for example, arises in the case of programs where the recipients are free to utilize the Federal outlay for either investment-type or current purposes (e.g., general revenue sharing). In such cases, this analysis classifies all of the outlays in the category where most of the outlays are expected to occur. Another classification problem arises because some programs could logically be put into more than one subcategory. For example, grants for construction of education facilities not only finance the acquisition of physical assets but also are an element in providing education and training. In cases such as this, the outlays are classified in the subcategory that is most "capital-like" and therefore appears first in the tables. This order begins with loans D-1 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - l . SUMMARY OF TOTAL 1 FEDERAL INVESTMENT-TYPE OUTLAYS, 1981-84 (In billions of dollars) 1981 Loans and financial investments: On-budget Off-budget Subtotal Construction and rehabilitation: National defense Nondefense: Grants to State and local governments Other Subtotal Acquisition of major equipment: National defense Nondefense Subtotal Conduct of research and development: National defense Nondefense Subtotal Conduct of education and training: Grants to State and local governments Other Subtotal Other (including commodity inventories): National defense Nondefense Subtotal Total 1 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 5.7 21.0 11.9 14.3 8.0 14.3 2.1 5.9 26.7 26.3 22.3 8.1 2.8 3.6 4.7 5.6 22.1 7.7 20.1 7.2 20.2 7.1 23.6 7.0 32.7 30.8 32.1 36.2 36.3 1.0 44.7 1.5 56.5 1.7 70.2 0.9 37.3 46.2 58.2 71.1 16.9 17.2 19.8 14.9 24.7 14.0 29.3 13.9 34.2 34.7 38.7 43.2 14.4 11.7 10.5 11.1 9.9 10.9 9.6 9.7 26.1 21.6 20.8 19.2 0.6 10.2 0.7 10.8 0.7 9.3 1.1 7.4 10.8 11.4 10.1 8.5 167.8 170.9 182.1 186.2 Includes off-budget outlays. and moves to construction and rehabilitation, acquisition of major equipment, conduct of research and development, etc. Consequently, for example, the conduct of research and development does not include the cost of research facilities, because such facilities are included in the construction and rehabilitation of physical assets. COMPOSITION OF F E D E R A L INVESTMENT Lending and financial investments.—The Federal Government conducts a wide variety of credit activities ranging from loan insurance to foreign assistance and export promotion loans. Federal direct loans are a form of investment, even though many of them are not intended to be profitable. Indeed, as is discussed in Special Analysis F ("Federal Credit Programs") there are major subsidy SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll elements connected with most Federal credit programs. Federal credit is discussed in detail in the Budget and in Special Analysis F. Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets is one of the largest components of Federal investment spending. As Table D - l shows, the great bulk of Federal outlays in this category are in the form of grants to State and local governments to finance construction or rehabilitation of physical assets, rather than being for assets acquired by the Federal Government itself. Table D-2 shows the broad programmatic composition of these grants, while Special Analysis H ("Federal Aid to State and Local Governments") discusses all Federal grants in detail. Acquisition of major equipment is composed almost entirely of investment in national defense weapons systems. National defense spending is discussed in greater detail in the national defense section of Part 5 of the budget document. Federal outlays for the conduct of research and development are devoted to increasing our basic scientific knowledge and to meeting other related Federal needs. In recent years these outlays have been almost evenly split between defense and nondefense spending. However, by 1984 the national defense component is estimated to increase to 68% of the total. Over the past two decades space research and technology has been the largest component of nondefense outlays for the conduct of research and development, but by 1982 it was overtaken by health research. The decline in outlays for space research is due to the conclusion of the major research and development phase for the space shuttle. Major research and development programs are discussed in the appropriate functions in Part 5 of the Budget, while Special Analysis K discusses Federal research and development. Federal outlays for the conduct of education and training are intended to increase the knowledge and skills of our people. Most of these outlays are grants to State and local governments to assist in the operation of educational institutions, or income transfers to students under the student assistance and veterans readjustment benefits programs. Federal outlays for education and training are discussed in Part 5 of the Budget. The other investment category is composed of an assortment of activities, primarily the acquisition of major commodity inventories (for the farm price support program and the strategic petroleum reserve) and programs such as Census Bureau activities designed to add to our information base. FEDERAL INVESTMENT IN PUBLIC WORKS AND RELATED ASSETS Traditionally the budget documents have contained a significant amount of historical information that could be used to analyze B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 major trends affecting specialized segments of Federal investmenttype spending. For example, historical data for education and training outlays are available as part of the functional tabulations, historical data on credit are shown in Special Analysis F, historical data on grants appear in Special Analysis H, and historical data on research and development are shown in Special Analysis K. However, Special Analysis D has not included historical data showing investment-type spending over time. In order to remedy this shortcoming, the Office of Management and Budget has developed a new set of historical tables entitled "Federal Outlays for Major Physical Capital Investment/' which provide historical data related to Special Analysis D. This historical data base does not cover all Special Analysis D investment-type spending. It concentrates on investment in publicly-owned physical assets (including grants to State and local governments for physical investments) but also supplies some historical data on outlays for the conduct of research and development. The new data series include almost all Federal outlays for construction and rehabilitation and for acquisition of major equipment. However, since these data focus on public physical capital acquisition, they exclude a few items (such as ship construction subsidies) that are used for private investment. Table D-2 provides information from this data base showing Federal outlays for public physical investment at 5-year intervals from 1945 to 1980 and annually from 1980 to 1984; Table D-3 summarizes the same data in constant prices and as a percent of the gross national product (GNP). Additional data are available upon request. Table D - 2 . FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR PUBLIC PHYSICAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT 1 (In billions of dollars) 1950 1945 Assets acquired by the Federal Government: National defense: Military procurement Military construction and family housing Atomic energy defense 1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 53.8 2.5 1.5 0.2 0.4 12.8 1.7 1.5 13.3 2.1 1.7 11.8 1.3 1.1 21.6 1.3 0.7 16.0 1.8 0.9 29.0 2.5 1.4 35.2 2.6 1.8 43.3 3.0 2.6 55.2 4.1 2.6 68.2 4.5 4.1 56.3 2.1 16.1 17.2 14.2 23.6 18.7 33.0 39.6 48.8 61.9 76.8 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 (*) 0.8 0.3 (*) 1.0 0.8 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 3.0 1.4 0.4 4.3 2.7 0.7 4.6 2.8 1.0 3.5 3.6 1.3 4.5 2.6 1.6 4.1 2.9 0.8 Subtotal, nondefense 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.9 3.0 2.5 4.8 7.7 8.5 8.5 8.7 7.8 Total Federal assets 56.5 3.4 17.2 19.1 17.3 26.1 23.5 40.7 47.9 57.3 70.6 84.6 * 0.1 0.4* 0.6* 2.9 0.1 0.1 * 4.0 0.1 0.6 4.3 0.2 1.6 4.6 1.0 2.5 9.0 2.6 5.8 8.8 3.1 5.6 7.7 2.9 5.2 8.5 3.3 4.8 11.8 3.8 4.6 Subtotal, national defense Nondefense: Construction and rehabilitation: Water and power projects Other Acquisition of major equipment Grants to State and local governments for physical capital investment: Transportation: Highways Urban mass transportation and airports Community and regional development Natural resources and environment: Pollution control facilities Other All o t h e r 2 Total grants for physical capital investment 2 Total public assets financed by the Federal Government * * * * * 0.2 56.7 * * 0.2 * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.9 1.9 0.5 4.3 0.6 0.2 3.9 0.6 0.2 3.8 0.3 0.3 3.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 3.3 5.0 7.1 10.9 22.5 22.1 20.2 20.3 23.7 3.9 18.0 22.4 22.3 33.2 34.4 63.2 70.2 77.4 90.9 108.3 L Table 0 - 2 . FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR PUBLIC PHYSICAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT ^Continued (In billions of dollars) 1945 1950 1955 I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 62.0 28.9 76.8 31.4 Memorandum 56.3 0.4 National defense Nondefense 2.1 1.8 16.1 1.9 17.2 5.2 14.2 8.0 23.6 9.6 18.7 15.7 33.1 30.2 39.6 30.6 48.8 28.6 •Excludes outlays for private asset acquisition (such as ship construction subsidies) and major commodity inventories (agricultural commodities and the strategic petroleum reserve). 2 Includes National Guard shelters and civil defense grants classified in the national defense function. *$50 million or less. Table D - 3 . SUMMARY COMPARISONS OF FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR PUBLIC PHYSICAL CAPITAL INVESTMENTS 1945 1950 I960 1955 1965 1970 1975 1980 1981 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate In billions of constant (fiscal year 1972 = 100) dollars Assets acquired by the Federal Government: National defense Nondefense Subtotal Grants to State and local governments for physical capital investment: Transportation Community development and housing Natural resources and environment All other . Subtotal grants Total 138.9 0.5 3.7 2.4 26.7 1.8 23.4 2.6 18.4 3.9 25.9 2.8 16.5 3.7 18.1 4.1 19.7 4.0 21.8 3.7 26.2 3.7 31.3 3.2 139.5 6.1 28.5 26.0 22.3 28.7 20.2 22.2 23.7 25.5 29.9 34.5 0.1 0.3* 0.9* 1.0 0.1 6.0 0.9 0.2 0.2 5.2 1.9 0.4 0.6 4.0 1.8 1.7 0.4 5.5 2.7 2.3 0.1 5.3 2.5 2.0 0.1 4.6 2.2 1.8 0.1 4.8 1.9 1.4 0.1 5.9 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.3 4.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 5.2 7.3 8.1 7.9 10.6 9.8 8.7 8.2 9.0 139.9 7.0 30.0 31.2 29.6 36.9 28.1 32.8 33.5 34.2 38.1 43.5 * * * * As a percent of Gross National Product Assets acquired by the Federal Government: National defense Nondefense Subtotal Grants to State and local governments for physical capital investment: Transportation Community and regional development Natural resources and environment All other Subtotal Total * $50 million or less. 10.005 percent or less. 25.94 0.10 0.77 0.50 4.23 0.29 3.45 0.39 2.16 0.46 2.43 0.26 1.26 0.33 1.28 0.30 1.38 0.30 1.61 0.28 1.94 0.27 2.20 0.22 26.05 1.28 4.51 3.83 2.62 2.70 1.59 1.58 1.67 1.89 2.21 2.42 0.02 0.05 i i 0.18 i i i 0.16 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.60 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.62 0.09 0.02 0.02 0.47 0.17 0.04 0.06 0.37 0.17 0.15 0.04 0.45 0.22 0.19 0.01 0.41 0.19 0.16 0.01 0.35 0.17 0.13 0.01 0.37 0.15 0.11 0.01 0.45 0.13 0.08 0.01 0.07 0.18 0.22 0.67 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.87 0.77 0.66 0.64 0.68 26.11 1.46 4.73 4.50 3.38 3.43 2.32 2.47 2.45 2.55 2.85 3.10 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 These tables reveal a number of significant facts: • National defense physical capital investment is currently increasing not only in current dollars but in real (constant price) terms and as a percent of GNP. The constant dollar totals are now well above the lowest levels immediately before and after the Vietnam war and will soon surpass the levels in the post-Korean war period. • Direct Federal investment in nondefense physical assets is clearly affected by trends in defense investment. At times of defense buildup—such as the Korean war, the Vietnam war, and the current period—these investments tend to be relatively constrained. In turn, in periods of defense reduction these investments have grown. • Grants for physical capital investment grew rapidly in real (constant dollar) terms and as a percent of GNP between 1945 and 1965. Between 1965 and 1980 grants grew overall in real terms but the composition shifted significantly; transportation grants declined in real terms and as a percent of GNP while non-transportation grants grew rapidly. The budget program calls for a significant real expansion for transportation related grants in 1984 (financed out of new user charges) but accompanied by significant real reductions of grants for other forms of physical investment. CAPITAL BUDGETING The Federal Government has never had a capital budget, which would finance capital or investment-type programs separately from current expenditures. From time to time, proposals have been made that the Federal Government adopt a capital budget. A discussion of the applicability of capital budgeting to the Federal budget is included in Part 6 of the Budget. In analyzing this issue it is important to recognize the fundamental difference between capital planning and capital budgeting. Under a capital budget the basic system of accounting for capital investments would be changed. Outlays for new capital would be recorded in the capital budget while all other spending would be reflected in an operating budget. Capital planning, on the other hand, involves systematic analysis of the optimum use of capital resources in combination with other resources to meet perceived needs in the most cost-effective manner. This is a standard practice within the Federal Government under the present budget system. For example, the Veterans Administration projects medical caseload needs and assesses the adequacy of present and possible future physical facilities and other resources to meet them. The Department of Defense has a systematic procedure for analyzing weapons systems needs and SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll costs. Because resources are finite, the Department must make tradeoffs between research and development, systems acquisition, and operating expenses in deciding how best to meet these needs. Even for areas where the Federal Government finances major investments but generally does not own the resulting facilities—such as highways and pollution control facilities—the Federal Government normally has planning processes designed to match the available resources and needs. Hence, the Government's capital planning processes are integrated into agency budget planning processes, where they can be evaluated in the context of program goals and alternative means of achieving those goals. The estimates reflected in this analyses are the product of agency capital planning but not of an overall capital budget. DETAILED DATA PRESENTATION The succeeding tables in this analysis are like those that have traditionally been presented. They distribute total Federal Government outlays (budget and off-budget) into a number of different classifications, primarity focused on the size and composition of investment-type spending, but also showing the composition of noninvestment outlays. The following tables provide two basic displays of investment and non-investment spending. Table D-4 is a summary table showing the data split between national defense spending and civil (i.e., nondefense) spending, with Table D-6 providing detailed data for the same categories. Table D-5, on the other hand, is a summary table identifying separately grants and loans to State and local governments separately from all other Federal outlays, with Table D-7 providing additional details on the same data base. The classification structure used in compiling information is designed primarily to distinguish investment-type outlays from current outlays. Consequently, it does not provide a ready source of information on the total outlays or other forms of assistance affecting particular sectors of the economy. For example, the category "aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation" includes current benefits, such as subsidies for operating expenses of air, water, and rail transportation, but it does not include related subsidies for the construction of private merchant ships, which are investmenttype outlays included under "acquisition of major equipment." Nor does it include assistance provided by the Federal Government through loan guarantees, tax expenditures, or other methods. Although not measured in this analysis, guaranteed loans, tax expenditures, and other provisions of the tax code are methods by which the Federal Government can affect the type and amount of public and private investment. Federally guaranteed loans, for ex- B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 ample, are substitutes for direct loans and can result in the creation of certain assets in place of others.1 CURRENT PROGRAM TRENDS Investment-type programs.—Total investment-type outlays are estimated to increase from $182.1 billion in 1983 to $186.2 billion in 1984. A total of $8.1 billion in 1984 outlays are for loans and financial investments, $107.3 billion are for the acquisition, construction, or rehabilitation of physical assets, and $70.9 billion are for the conduct of education, training, research and development, and other investment-type programs. Defense investment-type outlays, which account for 57% of total investment-type outlays, are primarily for the acquisition of major equipment and other physical assets and for the conduct of research and development. Civil programs are primarily for construction and rehabilitation of physical assets, the conduct of education and the training, and the conduct of research and development. Table D - 4 . SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual National defense: Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of major equipment and other physical assets Conduct of research and development Other investment-type programs 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 3,558 4,728 5,560 44,664 19,809 666 56,544 24,673 745 70,199 29,277 1,077 68,697 86,690 106,113 15,022 16,222 16,857 61,533 42,165 66,989 44,868 74,045 48,290 Subtotal, current programs 118,720 128,079 139,192 Total, national defense 187,418 214,769 245,305 11,932 27,066 1,398 14,850 21,570 3,787 3,279 8,021 27,333 1,640 14,032 20,748 4,052 3,509 2,125 30,567 803 13,909 19,203 2,193 3,369 83,881 79,335 72,170 343,328 8,215 384,096 8,965 400,581 8,099 Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Other current programs Civil: Investment-type programs: Loans and financial investments Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of major equipment Conduct of research and development Conduct of education and training Commodity inventories and other physical assets. Other investment-type programs Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs 1 Additional information on guaranteed loan programs and tax expenditures can be found in Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs" and Special Analysis G, "Tax Expenditures," respectively. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table D - 4 . SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets General purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest Other current programs 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 14,997 23,604 20,887 513 6,646 7,378 84,697 7,995 1,675 6,594 7,035 88,936 10,301 1,301 7,199 7,897 103,180 10,529 473,770 531,206 559,675 -16,694 -20,107 -28,667 Total, civil 540,957 590,433 603,177 Budget total 728,375 805,202 848,483 14,333 3,989 14,262 1,809 5,947 1,961 Subtotal, current programs Unclassified Addendum: Off-budget Federal entities (civil): Loans Other investment-type programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Total, off-budget Federal entities Total, including off-budget -990 767 1,681 17,331 16,839 9,589 745,706 822,041 858,071 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 5 . SUMMARY OF FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 1982 actual Grants-in-aid: Investment-type programs: Construction, rehabilitation, and acquisition of physical assets Conduct of education and training Other investment-type programs 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 20,504 10,521 340 20,629 9,874 316 24,028 9,551 254 31,365 30,819 33,834 40,136 7,325 45,439 7,977 45,885 7,209 1,461 6,682 601 623 1,421 6,635 517 729 758 7,257 525 458 Subtotal, current programs 56,829 62,718 62,092 Total, grants-in-aid 88,194 93,537 95,926 10,420 6,678 608 10,472 46,062 11,778 58,184 12,444 71,002 3,972 34,370 11,054 4,864 4,248 38,411 10,882 5,026 2,648 42,948 9,665 5,134 110,793 128,529 143,841 318,215 889 354,878 988 371,554 891 13,537 22,183 20,129 61,607 6,777 84,697 49,940 68,123 6,517 88,936 54,941 74,974 7,372 103,180 58,675 535,662 596,567 636,775 Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation General purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement Other current programs Loans Direct Federal programs: Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of major equipment Acquisition of commodity inventories and other physical assets Conduct of research and development Conduct of education and training Other investment-type programs Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest Other current programs Subtotal, current programs Total, direct Federal programs Unclassified Budget total Addendum (Direct Federal programs): Off-budget Federal entities: Loans Other investment-type programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Total, off-budget Federal entities Total, including off-budget 646,455 725,095 780,616 -16,694 -20,107 -28,667 728,375 805,202 848,483 14,333 3,989 14,262 1,809 5,947 1,961 -990 767 1,681 17,331 16,839 9,589 745,706 822,041 858,071 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Loans and financial investments.—A loan creates a financial asset. If made at competitive market rates, the value of the asset is equal to the outlay. For domestic loans, the Government's asset is matched by the liability of the private sector. Most Federal domestic loans finance the acquisition or improvement of either physical assets or human capital. Loans to foreign borrowers are an increase in financial assets held by the United States. Most foreign loans are for economic development programs or for the promotion of U.S. exports, including military equipment and farm commodities. Physical assets.—The benefits provided by the construction and rehabilitation of physical assets and by the acquisition or major equipment are of a long-term nature, while commodity inventories are for reserves rather than for use. Budget outlays designed specifically to purchase such assets are treated as investment-type outlays regardless of whether the asset is owned by the Federal Government, or by State, local, or private entities (because of the different focus of Tables D-2 and D-3, to the extent feasible, outlays for investments in private physical assets were excluded from these tables). Total outlays for physical assets—including acquisition of major commodity inventories—are estimated at $110.2 billion in 1984; of the amount $76.6 billion is for national defense. Most national defense outlays for physical assets are for the procurement of military equipment. A large portion of Federal outlays for nondefense physical assets is in the form of grants-in-aid to State and local governments, especially for construction programs such as highways, mass transit, and pollution control facilities. Commodity inventories include crops acquired as part of the farm price support program and also oil purchases for the strategic petroleum reserve. These are not included in Tables D-2 and D-3 investments. Conduct of research and development—Research and development increases the Nation's base of knowledge. Total outlays for the conduct of research and development are estimated at $43.2 billion in 1984. All of the increase in 1984 over 1983 is for national defense, reflecting the Administration's commitment to strengthening the Nation's defense. Nondefense outlays for the conduct of research and development decline slightly. Outlays for the conduct of health, energy, and space technology research and development B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 account for approximately one-half of nondefense research and development outlays in 1984. Within the total of spending for research and development there is a significant increase in 1984 for basic research, with emphasis on the support of research in the physical sciences. See Special Analysis K (Research and Development) for additional details. Conduct of education and training.—Outlays classified in this category are designed to add to the stock of human capital by developing a more skilled and productive labor force. These outlays are largely for direct payments to individuals, such as scholarships, and for grants to institutions and to State and local governments. Outlays are estimated at $19.2 billion in 1984, of which $9.6 billion are grants to State and local governments. Collection of information.—This category includes outlays for collection of information, censuses, and topographic or other natural resource surveys. Outlays are estimated at $1.5 billion and $1.3 billion in 1983 and 1984, respectively. International development.—Non-loan foreign assistance for general international economic development is included in this category. These outlays, which are expected to benefit U.S. interests by enhancing the economic development of friendly foreign nations, are estimated to be $2.3 billion in 1984. Current programs.—Programs that provide benefits in the current year are divided into several subcategories as briefly discussed below. Some outlays classified as current may in part by used by their recipients for investment-type purposes. However, the principal effect of these outlays is to provide short-term benefits—such as unemployment compensation and retirement and disability payments—rather than the means for future benefits. Total outlays for current programs are more than three-quarters of 1984 estimated outlays. $139.2 billion of current outlays in 1984 are for defense programs and $559.7 billion for civil programs. Outlays for "provision of benefits" is the largest category of current outlays in the budget. The total of these outlays is estimated to increase from $384.1 billion in 1983 to $400.6 billion in 1984. Social security and other disability and retirement benefits constitute the largest element in these category; they are estimated to total $204.7 billion in 1984. Other major outlays in this category include for medicaid, medicare, unemployment, and food and nutrition programs. Current outlays for "social services and related programs" are those for human development and child welfare services and employment programs. Outlays in 1984 are estimated to be $8.1 billion, for which $7.2 billion are of grants to State and local governments. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A "Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation" include price support subsidies and small business and transportation programs. Outlays for these programs are estimated to increase from $15.0 billion in 1982 to $23.6 billion in 1983 and then decrease to $20.9 billion in 1984. Other current outlays are largely for operation of the Federal Government, including the repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets (primarily defense related); regulation and law enforcement; net interest; and other administrative or operating expenses. Because proprietary receipts from the public—such as receipts from the sale of electric power, the sale of publications and reproductions, and the sale of timber and other natural land products—are offsets against the outlays to which they most nearly apply, in some cases net outlays are negative. Unclassified.—The unclassified category includes the undistributed offsetting receipts and most payments from the Government to itself and the associated offsetting collections. Outlays for this category are estimated to be $—20.1 billion in 1983 and $ — 28.7 billion in 1984. Table D - 6 . INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual National defense investment-type programs Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Military construction Family housing Atomic energy defense activities Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets Acquisition of major equipment: Procurement Atomic energy defense activities and other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment Other physical assets Conduct of research and development: Defense military Atomic energy and other Subtotal, research and development Other investment-type programs Subtotal, investment-type programs 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 2,811 174 573 3,944 157 627 4,153 339 1,068 3,558 4,728 5,560 43,234 1,431 55,104 1,440 68,174 2,026 44,664 56,544 70,199 538 541 799 18,363 1,447 22,126 2,547 27,258 2,019 19,809 24,673 29,277 128 204 277 68,697 86,690 106,113 14,938 85 16,130 91 16,770 86 National defense current programs Provision of benefits: Retired military personnel Other B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 6 . INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 15,022 16,222 61,309 223 66,705 284 61,533 66,989 41,707 458 44,612 256 42,165 44,868 Subtotal, current programs 118,720 128,079 Total, national defense 187,418 214,769 1,913 6,084 1,453 689 -304 -98 424 282 1,753 3,962 320 492 97 -271 59 447 -171 10,430 6,688 1,409 93 1,309 25 1,502 1,333 7,731 2,588 8,552 2,751 835 169 3,525 1,507 3,103 2,153 1,129 2,349 Subtotal, provision of benefits Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: Department of Defense, Military Other Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Other current programs: Military personnel Other national defense Subtotal, other current programs Civil investment-type programs Loans: International affairs Agriculture Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Aids to commerce Transportation Disaster relief Other community and regional development Education Other Subtotal, loans Other financial investments: International development Other Subtotal, other financial investments Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Highways Mass transportation Air transportation Water transportation Community development block grants Other community and regional development Pollution control and abatement Water resources Other natural resources and environment Energy Veterans hospitals and other health facilities Other Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets Acquisition of major equipment: Transportation Other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment -12 666 109 3,792 1,620 3,759 2,363 1,222 2,148 577 490 688 573 27,066 27,333 420 997 456 1,184 1,398 1,640 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table D - 6 . INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Conduct of research and development: General science, space and technology: NASA NSF Other general science Subtotal, general science, space, technology Energy activities Transportation: Department of Transportation NASA Subtotal, transportation Health: NIH All other health Subtotal, health 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 2,697 1,020 401 1,854 986 434 1,867 1,119 510 4,118 3,274 3,496 3,330 2,950 2,517 341 523 350 531 445 554 864 882 999 3,435 906 3,737 934 3,808 952 4,340 4,671 4,760 Agriculture 696 734 747 Natural resources and environment 838 859 753 All other research and development 664 663 636 14,850 14,032 13,909 6,030 6,444 120 6,198 6,194 179 5,695 6,130 88 Subtotal, Education activities 12,594 12,571 11,913 Veterans readjustment benefits Training and employment programs Health training Other education and training 1,975 4,195 1,052 1,753 1,664 3,708 928 1,878 1,360 3,561 817 1,551 21,570 20,748 19,203 Commodity inventories and other physical assets: Commodity inventories: Agriculture Other 1,376 40 1,509 20 222 Subtotal, commodity inventories 1,417 1,529 222 2,370 2,523 1,972 3,787 4,052 2,193 1,372 1,907 1,426 2,083 1,308 2,061 3,279 3,509 3,369 Subtotal, conduct of research and development Conduct of education and training: Education activities: Higher education Elementary, secondary, and vocational education Other Subtotal, conduct of education and training Other physical assets Subtotal, commodity inventories and other physical assets Other investment-type programs: Collection of information International development Subtotal, other investment-type programs B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 6 . INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 83,881 79,335 72,170 134,655 17,399 148,444 17,102 158,616 17,220 Subtotal, Social Security 152,054 165,546 175,836 Civil Service.Retirement and survivor benefits Disability benefits 15,356 3,381 16,738 3,689 17,712 3,981 18,737 20,427 21,693 Railroad retirement and disability benefits 5,389 6,846 7,605 Veterans disability benefits 9,456 9,864 10,240 Other retirement and disability benefits 2,069 2,017 1,934 187,705 204,700 217,308 3,879 49,150 17,391 538 22,310 7,883 15,178 6,884 6,646 8,024 3,909 55,859 19,326 447 29,997 9,323 17,478 7,862 6,847 8,165 3,873 63,205 20,799 1,115 27,402 10,222 15,904 6,943 5,932 7,621 137,881 159,212 163,016 Direct provision of services: Hospital and medical care for veterans Other health services Other 6,439 1,666 135 7,116 1,544 221 7,518 1,269 223 Subtotal, direct provision of services 8,240 8,880 9,010 2,037 1,273 6,192 2,560 1,403 7,340 2,390 1,476 7,382 9,502 11,303 11,248 343,328 384,096 400,581 1,562 1,254 2,567 2,831 1,693 1,433 2,571 3,268 1,997 1,149 2,500 2,453 Subtotal, investment-type programs., Civil current programs Provision of benefits: Retirement, survivor, and disability benefits.Social Security: Retirement and survivor benefits Disability benefits Subtotal, Civil Service Subtotal, retirement, survivor, and disability benefits Other provisions of benefits: Veterans pension benefits Medicare Medicaid Other health benefits Unemployment compensation Housing programs Food and nutrition programs Supplemental security income Assistance payments program Other Subtotal, other provisions of benefits Administrative expenses: Social Security retirement and disability Medicare Unemployment compensation, assistance payments, and other Subtotal, administrative expenses Subtotal, provision of benefits Social services and related programs: Human development services Employment programs Social services block grant Other SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table D-6. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Subtotal, social services and related programs 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 8,215 8,965 8,099 5,373 707 288 533 3,400 2,060 1,773 864 13,218 789 396 802 2,622 2,474 1,973 1,330 12,019 400 397 617 1,825 2,549 1,770 1,311 14,997 23,604 20,887 665 211 -319 772 -70 -458 518 -300 -720 556 245 -502 -2,777 -3,067 -2,712 2,734 4,497 4,515 513 1,675 1,301 4,569 645 1,433 4,567 685 1,343 4,567 701 1,931 6,646 6,594 7,199 1,007 938 693 602 345 -1,997 651 609 939 1,008 723 609 301 -3,171 805 694 881 1,036 728 533 262 -2,582 1,023 699 2,848 1,908 2,582 Law enforcement activities: Federal law enforcement Federal litigative and judicial activities Federal correctional activities Other law enforcement assistance 2,512 1,502 348 168 2,996 1,651 393 86 3,239 1,573 420 84 Subtotal, law enforcement activities 4,530 5,127 5,315 7,035 7,897 128,063 144,500 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Agriculture Postal Service Small business assistance Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Ground transportation Air transportation Water transportation and waterways Other Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: Natural resources.Water resources Conservation and land management Recreation resources and other Subtotal, natural resources Energy (net of offsetting receipts) Other (net) Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets General purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Other general purpose grants-in-aid Shared revenues Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement: Regulatory and inspection activities: Natural resources and environment Transportation Health Energy Agriculture Savings institutions Tax collections Other Subtotal, regulatory and inspection activities Subtotal, regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest: Interest on the public debt 117,190 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 6 . INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER FEDERAL OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate -16,427 -16,067 -16,349 -22,778 -16,862 -24,458 84,697 88,936 103,180 1,713 1,196 2,808 897 2,595 1,310 3,462 707 2,926 1,401 3,632 1,090 6,615 8,074 9,049 2,540 3,616 4,110 -1,159 -1,389 -2,630 1,381 2,227 1,480 Subtotal, current programs 473,770 531,206 559,675 Unclassified: Employer share, employee retirement Offshore oil receipts Medicare premiums Other unclassified -7,020 -6,250 -3,855 431 -8,214 -11,793 -4,229 4,128 -9,853 -11,895 -4,850 -2,069 -16,694 -20,107 -28,667 Total, civil 540,957 590,433 603,177 Budget total 728,375 805,202 848,483 14,333 208 93 3,687 1 14,262 15 22 1,771 2 5,947 37 54 1,866 4 18,322 16,072 7,908 -855 18 -154 897 -14 -116 1,766 2 -87 Subtotal, current programs -990 767 1,681 Total, off-budget Federal entities 17,331 16,839 9,589 745,706 822,041 858,071 Interest received by trust funds Other interest Subtotal, net interest General Administration: International affairs Legislative branch Other general government Other Subtotal, general administration Other current programs: International security assistance Other Subtotal, other current programs Subtotal, unclassified Addendum: Off-budget Federal entities (civil): Investment-type programs: Loans (see Table D - 7 ) Constructon and rehabilitation (Postal Service) Acquisition of major equipment (Postal Service) Major commodity inventories (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) Other investment Subtotal, investment-type programs Current: Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Postal Service Railways Other Total, including off-budget * $500 thousand or less. A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table D - 7 TOTAL OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Grants-in-aid Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Highways Mass transportation Other transportation Pollution control and abatement Other natural resources and environment Community development block grants Other community and regional development Other construction 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 7,730 2,588 339 3,756 314 3,792 1,379 253 8,549 2,696 582 3,100 255 3,525 1,266 310 11,754 2,859 987 2,800 146 3,526 1,095 517 20,151 20,284 23,683 Acquisition of equipment and other physical assets... 353 345 345 Conduct of research and development 290 294 238 3,332 7,189 2,912 6,962 2,843 6,708 10,521 9,874 9,551 50 23 16 31,365 30,819 33,834 17,391 4,460 6,646 4,873 3,285 19,326 5,769 6,847 5,923 3,260 20,799 5,220 5,932 6,320 3,225 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets Conduct of education and training: Employment and training assistance Other Subtotal, conduct of education and training Collection of information Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits: Medicaid Nutrition and food programs Assistance payments Housing payments and subsidies Other Administrative expenses: Unemployment compensation and other 3,482 4,314 4,387 40,136 45,439 i 45,885 987 1,494 2,567 2,276 1,149 1,629 2,571 2,628 930 1,933 2,500 1,846 Subtotal, social services and related programs 7,325 7,977 7,209 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Transportation Other 1,457 3 1,418 3 756 2 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation 1,461 1,421 758 Subtotal, provision of benefits Social services and related programs: Employment programs Human development services Social services and child welfare services Other 380-700 0 - 83 - 8 QL : 3 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 7 . TOTAL OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 439 541 372 4,569 1,433 681 4,567 1,343 725 4,567 1,931 759 6,682 6,635 7,257 Regulation, control, and law enforcement 601 517 525 Other current programs 184 188 86 Subtotal, current programs 56,829 62,718 62,092 Total, grants-in-aid 88,194 93,537 95,926 1,913 73 6,084 687 1,453 -12 -304 424 228 -125 1,753 96 3,962 491 320 97 -271 447 -404 187 2,145 93 -2,157 108 148 42 -215 295 244 -95 10,420 6,678 608 General purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Shared revenues Other Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance Loans International affairs Energy supply Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Transportation SBA disaster loan fund Education Veterans Other Total, loans Direct Federal* Programs Investment-type programs-. Financial investments Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: National defense Water resource projects Other natural resources and environment Energy Transportation Veterans hospitals and other health facilities Other construction 1,502 1,333 1,515 3,527 2,220 1,055 2,148 436 551 536 4,693 2,062 967 2,349 480 601 626 5,515 1,922 875 2,173 660 775 522 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets 10,472 11,778 12,444 44,664 1,398 56,544 1,640 70,199 803 46,062 58,184 71,002 Commodity inventories 1,955 2,070 1,021 Other physical assets 2,017 2,178 1,627 34,370 38,411 42,948 Acquisition of major equipment: National defense Other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment Conduct of research and development . SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table D - 7 . TOTAL OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Conduct of education and training: Assistance to veterans Higher education Elementary and secondary education Employment and training assistance Health training Other 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 2,384 5,969 490 803 634 772 2,092 6,123 423 729 494 1,022 1,797 5,665 375 658 378 792 11,054 10,882 9,665 Collection of information 1,343 1,430 1,318 International development 2,019 2,263 2,301 110,793 128,529 143,841 152,054 54,553 49,150 6,439 1,708 22,310 10,339 4,604 6,864 1,201 2,973 165,546 59,284 55,859 7,116 1,564 29,997 11,293 5,205 7,851 1,205 2,970 175,836 62,202 63,205 7,518 1,289 27,402 10,318 5,845 6,938 1,123 3,018 2,037 1,273 2,709 2,560 1,403 3,025 2,390 1,476 2,995 6,020 6,989 6,860 318,215 354,878 371,554 889 988 891 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Agriculture Postal Service Small business assistance Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Ground transportation Air transportation Water transportation and waterways Other 5,373 707 288 532 1,944 2,060 1,191 1,442 13,218 789 396 802 1,208 2,474 1,337 1,960 12,019 400 397 617 1,072 2,549 1,316 1,760 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation 13,537 22,183 20,129 Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: National defense Other (includes offsetting collections) 61,533 74 66,989 1,134 74,045 929 Subtotal, conduct of education and training Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits: Social Security retirement and disability Other retirement and disability benefits Medicare Medical care for veterans Other health Unemployment compensation Nutrition programs and food Housing payments and subsidies Supplemental security income Earned income tax credit Other Administrative expenses.Social Security retirement and disability Medicare Nutrition and food programs and other Subtotal, administrative expenses Subtotal, provision of benefits Social services and related programs B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table D - 7 . TOTAL OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets 1984 estimate 1983 estimate 61,607 68,123 74,974 6,777 6,517 7,372 Net interest 84,697 88,936 103,180 Other current programs: Military personnel Other national defense Other 41,707 422 7,811 44,612 216 10,113 46,750 1,482 10,443 49,940 54,941 58,675 Subtotal, current programs 535,662 596,567 636,775 Total, direct Federal programs 646,455 725,095 780,616 -7,020 -6,250 -18,193 14,769 -8,214 -11,793 -19,576 19,475 -9,853 -11,895 -22,223 15,304 -16,694 -20,107 -28,667 728,375 805,202 848,483 130 -42 102 14,142 88 -43 173 14,045 59 -21 171 5,739 14,333 14,262 5,947 Regulation, control, and law enforcement Subtotal, other current programs Unclassified: Employer share, employee retirement Offshore oil receipts Non-compulsory medicare premiums Other unclassified Subtotal, unclassified Budget total Addendum (Direct Federal): Off-budget Federal entities: Investment-type: Loans: Energy Transportation Community and regional development Other Subtotal, loans Other investment-type programs 3,989 1,809 1,961 18,322 16,072 7,908 32,655 30,334 13,855 -855 18 -154 897 -14 -116 1,766 Subtotal, current -990 767 1,681 Total, off-budget Federal entities 17,331 16,839 9,589 Total, including off-budget 745,706 822,041 858,071 Subtotal, other investment-type Subtotal, investment Current: Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Postal Service Railways Other 1 -87 SPECIAL ANALYSIS E BORROWING AND DEBT The major fiscal operations of the Federal Government include not only taxation and expenditure but also: • the borrowing of cash to meet current outlays not covered by receipts and to refinance maturing debt; • the investment of balances that trust funds and other Government accounts do not currently need for outlays; and • the provision of guarantees and other assistance for certain private borrowing. This analysis summarizes current developments in Federal borrowing. It also discusses the size and growth of the Federal debt and the interest on the Federal debt, the amount of U.S. Government debt held by foreign residents, agency borrowing, agency investment in Federal securities, the statutory debt limitation, Government-guaranteed borrowing, and borrowing by Governmentsponsored enterprises. The analysis concludes with a brief discussion of the trend in Federal and federally assisted borrowing and the relationship of this trend to the total borrowing by the nonfinancial sector of the economy. Excluded from this analysis are other types of Federal liabilities, which include accounts payable, obligations for undelivered orders, long-term contracts, insurance commitments, and the obligation for such future payments as social security and employee retirement.1 Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs/' examines the related subject of Federal credit programs, which provide direct loans, loan guarantees, and loans by Government-sponsored enterprises. The factors discussed in both Special Analyses E and F are significant in appraising the impact on financial markets and the economy of the programs contained in the 1984 Federal budget. BORROWING AND REPAYING DEBT The Federal Government issues debt for two principal reasons. First, it issues debt to the public, largely in order to finance the Federal deficit. Second, it issues debt to the Government agencies that accumulate surpluses in separate funds, primarily trust funds, that are required by law to be invested in Federal securities. Most 1 Information on many of these liabilities is contained in "Statement of Liabilities and Other Financial Commitments of the United States Government," an annual report prepared by the Bureau of Government Financial Operations of the Department of the Treasury. E-1 B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Federal debt has been issued by the Treasury and is called "public debt/' but a small portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is called "agency debt." 2 Borrowing from the public—whether by the Treasury or by an agency—has a significant impact on financial markets and the rest of the economy, and is consequently an important concern of Federal fiscal policy. Borrowing from the public includes borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks as well as borrowing from commercial banks, foreign central banks, other financial institutions and businesses, and individuals. The term "borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks" does not imply that the Treasury sells debt securities directly to the Federal Reserve. Instead, the Federal Reserve normally buys securities in the open market. In the past the Federal Reserve was able to buy securities directly from the Treasury only under exceptional circumstances and in amounts limited by statute. The statutory authority for even these exceptions expired in 1981. For most purposes borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks should be distinguished from borrowing from the rest of the public. Federal Reserve purchases of debt are undertaken to carry out monetary policy, not to earn income, and affect the economy by expanding bank reserves and the money stock. They thus have a markedly different motivation and effect on financial markets than do purchases by other sectors of the public. The debt held outside the Federal Reserve Banks enters into investment portfolios of businesses and individuals and by this means affects interest rates, other financial conditions, and the size and composition of private assets. Almost all interest received by the Federal Reserve Banks is returned to the Treasury as receipts, called deposits of earnings, so the Federal Reserve holdings of debt have only a small effect on the budget surplus or deficit. The estimates in this analysis for the current and future years do not divide the debt held by the public between the Federal Reserve Banks and the rest of the public, despite the significance of this distinction, because the Federal Reserve's open market operations depend on future economic developments and on policy decisions not yet made. Table E - l summarizes Federal borrowing from 1982 through 1986. In 1982 the total Federal borrowing (net of the refunding of securities)—i.e., the rise in gross Federal debt—was $143.0 billion. The issue of debt to Government agencies was $8.1 billion, and the issue of debt to the public was $135.0 billion. Of the increase in debt held by the public, $10.0 billion was purchased by the Federal Reserve System and $125.0 billion by the rest of the public. As a 2 The term "agency debt" is defined more narrowly in the budget than in the securities market, where it may include not only the debt of the Government agencies listed in table E - 6 but also certain Governmentguaranteed securities and the debt of the Government-sponsored enterprises listed in table E-10. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll result of this borrowing, Federal debt held by the public increased to $929.4 billion at the end of 1982. Gross Federal debt was $1,147.0 billion. Table E - 1 . FEDERAL BORROWING (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment (—) of debt Description Gross Federal debt: Treasury debt Agency debt Gross Federal debt Less debt held by Gov. agencies: Treasury debt Agency debt Debt held by Gov. agencies 1 .... Total, debt held by public, Composed of: Debt held by the Federal Reserve System Debt held by others 1983 estimate Debt outstanding, end of year 1984 estimate 1985 estimate 1986 estimate 144,181 237,020 222,784 -263 -189 -1,134 NA NA NA NA 1,601,839 4,500 NA NA 143,046 236,757 222,595 239,142 201,913 1,606,339 2,047,394 1982 actual 8,348 -295 21,766 : 19,605 -11 -9 8,054 21,757 1984 estimate 1986 estimate NA NA NA NA 257,775 1,136 NA NA 35,295 45,662 258,912 339,869 134,993 215,000 203,000 203,847 156,251 1,347,427 1,707,525 NA NA NA NA 10,031 124,961 NA NA 19,594 NA NA NA NA NA NA 'Agency investment in 1985 and 1986 is estimated as equal to the total trust fund surplus. NA=Not available. Borrowing from the public has fluctuated widely in the past decade, largely in response to fluctuations in the economy. It rose from $3.0 billion in 1974 to $82.9 billion in 1976 primarily because of the 1974-75 recession and its aftermath, and it then fell to $33.6 billion in 1979 as the economy recovered. Borrowing rose again in 1980 and 1981 as the economy experienced further recession and economic slowdown. The borrowing from the public rose still again in 1982, to $135.0 billion, and is estimated to increase greatly in 1983 to $215.0 billion before declining by a small amount to $203.0 billion in 1984. These massive amounts of borrowing reflect in part the temporary but nonetheless substantial effects of recession and disinflation. The decline in real GNP and the sharp decrease in inflation reduce money incomes, which reduces tax receipts; the decline in real GNP and the rise in unemployment increase outlays for unemployment benefits and certain other programs; and the lag between the decline in inflation and the fall in nominal interest rates sustained very large and rapidly rising outlays for interest on the Federal debt. The effects of disinflation are all the more striking as a reason for the growth of borrowing compared to earlier years, because the acceleration of inflation during the previous period raised receipts more than outlays and thus temporarily kept down the level of borrowing. Besides these economic effects, the massive B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 amounts of borrowing reflect a structural imbalance between receipts and outlays, which is discussed in detail in Part 3 of the Budget. The economic assumptions behind these estimates are presented in Part 2 of the Budget. The assumptions for 1983 are a forecast of the economy. The assumptions for 1984 and later years, however, are not intended as precise forecasts of future economic conditions. Instead, they are trend projections, consistent with the economic policy objectives of this Administration, that assume steady progress in reducing unemployment, inflation, and interest rates, and in sustaining strong real economic growth. The receipts and outlay estimates also assume that current tax laws are continued as modified by the proposals in the budget, and that existing and proposed programs are carried out at the levels currently planned. Under these assumptions, the total Government deficit does not decline substantially until 1986, at which time the borrowing from the public declines correspondingly. BORROWING AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS Table E-2 shows the relationship between borrowing from the public and the Federal deficit. Until several years ago the budget deficit comprised practically the entire deficit of the Federal Government, but the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities is now significant. These entities, such as the Federal Financing Bank and the Postal Service, are parts of the Federal Government but have been excluded from the budget under provisions of law. The Government deficit is financed either by borrowing from the public or by several other means. The other means of financing are: • a decrease in Treasury's operating cash balances or in other kinds of cash or monetary assets; • an increase in monetary liabilities for checks outstanding, accrued interest payable to the public, etc.; • an increase in deposit fund balances, which are discussed on pages E-19 to E-20, together with their effect on the means of financing; and • seigniorage, which is the face value of minted coins less the cost of their production. All of these other means of financing except seigniorage are changes in Government asset or liability accounts and so may be either positive or negative. In most years they add up to a positive total amount, in which case they finance part of the deficit. Sometimes, however, they add up to a negative total amount, in which case they, like the deficit, must themselves be financed by borrowing from the public. In 1982 the Government borrowed $135.0 billion from the public. Almost all of this amount, $127.9 billion, A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A was used to finance the Government deficit. The remaining $7.1 billion was used to finance the other means of financing, which had a negative total amount. Table E - 2 . MEANS OF FINANCING THE FEDERAL DEFICIT 1 (In millions of dollars) 1986 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate -110,609 -17,331 -207,708 -17,045 -188,781 -14,042 -194,197 -147,692 -10,462 -9,447 -127,940 -224,754 -202,822 -204,660 -157,139 -11,911 7,200 4,130 338 390 1,475 572 507 376 -1,201 647 813 888 -7,053 9,754 -178 813 888 Total, requirements for borrowing from -134,993 the public -215,000 -203,000 215,000 203,000 Description Budget surplus or deficit ( - ) Deficit ( - ) of off-budget Federal entities 2 Total, surplus or deficit ( - ) Means of financing other than borrowing from the public: Decrease or increase ( - ) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease ( - ) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc. 3 Deposit fund balances 4 Seigniorage on coins Total, means of financing other than borrowing from the public Change in debt held by the public 134,993 -203,847 -156,251 203,847 156,251 'Several amounts have been assumed to be zero during 1984-86 because they are usually small and cannot be estimated accurately. 2 The off-budget Federal entities consist of the Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund, Rural Telephone Bank, SPR petroleum account, Federal Financing Bank, Postal Service fund, one program of the U.S. Railway Association, and Synthetic Fuels Corporation. 3 Besides checks outstanding, includes military payment certificates, accrued interest (less unamortized discount) payable on Treasury debt, and, as an offsetting change in assets, certain collections in transit. 4 Does not include investment in Federal debt classified as debt held by the public. The other means of financing are normally small relative to borrowing from the public. This is because they are limited by their own nature. Decreases in cash balances, for example, are necessarily limited by past accumulations, which themselves required financing when they were built up. Thus, the extent to which means other than borrowing can finance a deficit are limited in any single year and are still more limited over a longer period of time. When the total Government deficit is sizable, it is necessarily the principal determinant of borrowing from the public. Nevertheless, these other accounts did require a significant amount of borrowing from the public in 1982 in order to be financed. This was due to the large increase in Treasury's operating cash balance at the end of the year, which, as explained in a later section, was needed to anticipate a possible delay in the extension and increase of the statutory debt limit. As a result, Treasury's cash balance on September 30, 1982, was larger than needed for normal operations. The counterpart to the increase in cash balances during 1982 is the plan for a large decrease during 1983. Since this is a means of financing for the Government, it will allow borrowing in 1983 to be less than the size of the deficit. B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 The structure of table E-2 demonstrates that, because of the offbudget Federal entities, balancing the budget is not enough to prevent an increase in the Federal debt held by the public. Even if the budget were balanced, the off-budget deficit would have to be financed by borrowing. The outlays of the budget and the offbudget entities combined must be in balance with receipts in order for the Government not to have to borrow from the public (aside from the relatively small effects of the other means of financing). The amount of debt issued to Federal agencies depends largely on the surpluses of the trust funds, which own 90% of the Federal debt held by Government agencies. Agency investment in Federal securities and the total trust fund surplus during 1981-84 are compared in the table below (in billions of dollars): 1981 actual Agency investment in Federal debt. Total trust fund surplus 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 10.3 8.1 21.8 19.6 6.8 6.3 18.4 16.9 As the table shows, the agency investment in Federal securities is similar in size to the total trust fund surplus throughout this period. This relationship has historically been close, with the small differences accounted for by two factors. Certain agencies other than trust funds buy or sell Federal debt, as shown in table E-7, and the trust funds may increase or decrease their cash assets not currently invested.3 SIZE A N D G R O W T H OF FEDERAL DEBT Gross Federal debt has risen substantially over the past half century, from $16.9 billion in 1929 to $1,147.0 billion at the end of 1982. Table E-3 compares the trends since 1954 in gross Federal debt and the amounts of debt held by Government accounts, the public (including the Federal Reserve Banks), and the Federal Reserve Banks. During this period the gross Federal debt increased over four times, with a fifth of the increase being held in Federal Government accounts (primarily trust funds) rather than being owed to the public. In the quarter century from the end of 1957 to the end of 1982, gross Federal debt and debt held by the public both increased at an average annual rate of 5.9%. Federal debt held by the public apart from the Federal Reserve Banks rose a little more slowly, at an average annual rate of 5.7%, with the Federal Reserve Banks buying a large quantity of Federal debt in the market and thereby expanding the reserves of the banking system and increasing the Nation's money stock. 3 These "open book balances" are small relative to trust fund holdings of Federal debt, as shown in Special Analysis C, "Funds in the Budget." A-ll SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table E - 3 . COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT AND GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Dollar amounts in billions) Debt outstanding, end of year Held by Fiscal year Gross Federal debt Federal Government accounts GNP The public Total Federal Reserve System Other Debt held by public as percent of GNP 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 270.8 274.4 272.8 272.4 279.7 287.8 46.3 47.8 50.5 52.9 53.3 52.8 224.5 226.6 222.2 219.4 226.4 235.0 25.0 23.6 23.8 23.0 25.4 26.0 199.5 203.0 198.5 196.4 200.9 209.0 364.2 380.6 411.8 433.9 443.1 474.4 61.6 59.5 54.0 50.6 51.1 49.5 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 290.9 292.9 303.3 310.8 316.8 323.2 329.5 341.3 369.8 367.1 53.7 54.3 54.9 56.3 59.2 61.5 64.8 73.8 79.1 87.7 237.2 238.6 248.4 254.5 257.6 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 26.5 27.3 29.7 32.0 34.8 39.1 42.2 46.7 52.2 54.1 210.7 211.4 218.7 222.4 222.8 222.5 222.5 220.8 238.4 225.4 497.9 509.3 548.2 578.0 618.2 659.5 724.1 777.3 831.3 910.6 47.6 46.8 45.3 44.0 41.7 39.7 36.6 34.4 35.0 30.7 382.6 409.5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 97.7 105.1 113.6 125.4 140.2 147.2 151.6 148.1 157.3 169.5 189.2 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 57.7 65.5 71.4 75.2 80.6 85.0 94.7 96.7 105.0 115.5 115.6 227.2 238.8 252.3 267.9 265.4 311.9 385.6 401.6 446.8 495.5 529.0 968.8 1,031.5 1,128.8 1,252.0 1,379.4 1,479.9 1,640.1 1,729.0 1,862.8 2,091.3 2,357.7 29.4 29.5 28.7 27.4 25.1 26.8 29.3 28.8 29.6 29.2 27.3 914.3 1,003.9 1,147.0 1,383.7 1,606.3 1,845.5 2,047.4 199.2 209.5 217.6 239.3 258.9 294.2 339.9 715.1 794.4 929.4 1,144.4 1,347.4 1,551.3 1,707.5 120.8 124.5 134.5 NA NA NA NA 594.3 670.0 794.9 NA NA NA NA 2,573.9 2,871.8 3,033.0 3,193.7 3,488.7 3,806.7 4,144.6 27.8 27.7 30.6 35.8 38.6 40.8 41.2 1 1970 2 1971 1972 1973 3 1974 1975 1976 4 . TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 estimate estimate estimate estimate NA=Not available. •During 1969, 3 Government-sponsored enterprises became completely privately owned, and their debt was removed from the totals for the Federal Government. At the dates of their conversion, gross Federal debt was reduced $10.7 billion, debt held by Government accounts was reduced $0.6 billion, and debt held by the public was reduced $10.1 billion. 2Gross Federal debt and debt held by the public increased $1.6 billion due to a reclassification of the Commodity Credit Corporation certificates of interest from loan assets to debt. 3A procedural change in the recording of trust fund holdings of Treasury debt at the end of the month increased gross Federal debt and debt held in Government accounts by about $4.5 billion. 4Gross Federal debt and debt held by the public increased $0.5 billion due to a retroactive reclassification of the Export-Import Bank certificates of beneficial interest from loan assets to debt. B-18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 During the depression of the 1930's and during World War II, Federal debt held by the public increased greatly, not only in absolute amount but also, as shown in the chart below, as a proportion of the total credit market debt owed by nonfinancial sectors of the economy: Federal, State and local, and private.4 Whereas Federal debt held by the public was only 13% of total debt at the end of calendar year 1929, it had risen to 70% by the end of calendar year 1945. Federal borrowing was large during these years, especially to finance World War II, and borrowing by other sectors was restricted by low incomes and poor credit-worthiness during the depression and by controls and scarcities during the war. From 1945 to 1974, however, private debt increased as a proportion of total credit market debt in every single year, and likewise, in every single year but one, the Federal debt held by the public (including the Federal Reserve Banks) decreased as a proportion of the total. During this period the average annual rate of growth was 1.1% for Federal debt held by the public, 10.0% for State and local debt, and 9.7% for private credit market debt. By 1974, Federal debt held by the public had declined to 17% of total credit market 4 The estimates for 1946 to the present are from the Federal Reserve Board flow-of-funds accounts; the estimates for earlier years are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce and are linked to the flow-of-funds estimates on the basis of their respective 1946 levels. The data are for calendar years during 1929-51 and for fiscal years thereafter. The private sector debt includes debt of foreigners. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll debt, and private debt had risen to 74% of the total. As a result of these trends, Federal debt, though still important, became a relatively much smaller influence on the financial markets than it had been at the end of World War II. This uninterrupted trend ended in 1975 because of the large Federal deficit caused by recession. Another large Federal deficit in 1976 caused Federal debt held by the public to rise as a percentage of total debt again in that year; and the recessions and other factors during 1980-83 led to further increases in the percentage. As a result of these events, Federal debt held by the public has fluctuated within the range of 17-20% since 1970. Federal debt as a percentage of total credit market debt was 19% at the end of 1982, which is the same as in 1972. During the same period following World War II, Federal debt decreased relative to gross national product (GNP). As shown in table E-3, debt held by the public equalled 61.6% of GNP at the end of 1954 but declined steadily to 25.1% by the end of 1974. Since then, however, primarily due to recessions, debt held by the public has fluctuated as a percentage of GNP, at the same time as it has fluctuated as a percentage of total credit market debt. As a result, Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GNP has fluctuated within the range of 25-31% since 1969. The percentage was 30.7% at the end of 1982, which is higher than in any other year since 1969. Because of the reasons outlined in a preceding section, Federal borrowing is estimated to be very large in 1983 and the following years. As a result, debt held by the public is estimated to rise to 38.6% in 1984 and 41.2% in 1986. The interest cost of the debt may be more significant than the amount of the debt for some types of comparison designed to measure the importance of Federal indebtedness. Interest on the debt held by the public has risen much faster than the debt itself, due to a strong upward trend since World War II in the interest rates that must be paid on new borrowings and on refunded debt. The interest rate on 91-day Treasury bills, for example, averaged 12.1% in calendar years 1980-82 compared to 6.3% in the 1970's, 4.0% in the 1960's, and 2.0% in the 1950's. Consequently, whereas the Federal debt held by the public increased by four times between 1954 and 1982, table E-4 shows that the interest paid on this debt increased by 19 times. As a result, interest payments to the public have tended to grow faster than GNP over this entire period. In the late 1950's interest paid to the public was equal to 1.4% of GNP, whereas by 1970 it had risen to 1.6% and by 1982 it had reached a record high of 3.2%. This percentage is estimated to rise further in 1983 and 1984 despite decreases in market interest rates, because of the large borrowing necessary to finance the Federal deficit. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table E-4. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN INTEREST ON FEDERAL DEBT (Dollar amounts in billions) Interest on the gross Federal debt Interest on debt held by the public as a percent of Paid to Fiscal year Total1 Federal Government accounts The public Total Federal Reserve Banks2 Other GNP Total outlays3 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8 7.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 0.5 .4 .5 .7 .7 .8 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.42 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.43 1.35 7.29 7.56 7.90 7.73 7.68 6.96 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 9.5 9.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.6 17.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.5 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.6 12.6 14.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.6 10.2 11.2 1.62 1.53 1.44 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.50 1.52 1.55 8.73 7.96 7.40 7.78 7.80 8.29 7.75 7.39 7.09 7.70 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 20.0 21.6 22.5 24.8 30.0 33.5 37.7 8.3 42.6 49.3 60.3 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.0 .6 9.6 10.2 12.1 15.6 16.3 16.6 18.5 22.4 24.7 28.7 7.6 33.0 39.2 48.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.5 6.1 6.3 NA 6.8 8.0 9.6 12.2 12.6 12.9 14.2 16.9 18.6 22.5 NA 26.2 31.2 38.6 1.61 1.58 1.47 1.48 1.62 1.67 1.75 1.77 1.77 1.87 2.05 7.99 7.78 7.20 7.53 8.30 7.42 7.73 7.96 8.07 8.54 9.59 75.2 96.0 117.5 128.4 144.8 14.8 17.1 19.9 20.6 21.5 60.4 78.9 97.7 107.8 123.3 12.5 13.4 15.7 NA NA 47.9 65.5 82.0 NA NA 2.35 2.75 3.22 3.38 3.53 10.22 11.63 13.10 13.11 14.29 1980 1981 1982 1'983 estimate 1984 estimate 'Total interest significantly exceeds the outlays for the net interest function in the budget, because the net interest function includes collections of interest and interest paid to trust funds as offsets to outlays. 2 These figures are approximate. For most years they are estimated as the average of calendar year amounts. The 1982 estimate is tentative. 3 Includes both budget outlays and off-budget outlays. A historical series of outlays is published in the Budget, Part 9, table 24. NA=Not available. Interest paid to the public as a percentage of total Federal outlays does not show the same sustained trend over the period as a whole. In recent years, however, this percentage has also been rising steadily and substantially. In 1982 interest paid to the public was 13.1% of total outlays, which was much higher than the 7.2% just 10 years before or the 8.1% just 5 years before. This percentage is estimated to remain at 13.1% in 1983 but to rise to 14.3% in 1984. Thus, the SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll importance of interest on the debt relative to either GNP or Federal outlays is now both high and rising. Since the end of World War II the composition of the Federal debt has changed. Until a few years ago an increasingly large proportion of marketable securities had a short maturity. One contributing factor was the statutory ceiling of 4%% that has been maintained since 1918 on the interest rate for Treasury bonds. Long-term market rates exceeded 4 K% after 1965, so after that year the ceiling prevented the Treasury from selling long-term obligations. This restriction on Treasury borrowing has been relaxed in two ways. One method has been to increase the maximum maturity of notes, which are not subject to the interest rate ceiling. The maximum maturity was raised by law from 5 to 7 years in 1967 and to 10 years in 1976. As of December 31, 1982, the amount of notes outstanding with an original maturity over 5 years was $185.0 billion, of which $105.4 billion had an original maturity over 7 years. The other method of relaxing the restriction has been to allow limited amounts of bonds to be sold at interest rates above the ceiling. In 1971 the Treasury was allowed by law to issue up to $10 billion of bonds at interest rates above 434%. In 1973 those bonds held by Government accounts and the Federal Reserve Banks were exempted from the interest rate limit, and since 1976 the amount of the exemption for other bonds has been raised in eight steps to $110 billion. The last increase to the exemption was from $70 billion to $110 billion, enacted in September 1982. The $70 billion limit had been exhausted in February 1982, so from then until September the Treasury was unable to issue any bonds. As of December 31, 1982, $97.5 billion of the bonds outstanding had been sold since the change of law in 1971, of which $75.4 billion were held by the public exclusive of the Federal Reserve Banks. The effective interest rates ranged from 6.1% to 15.8%. Notwithstanding the initial relaxations of the interest rate ceiling, the average maturity of privately held, marketable Treasury debt decreased steadily from 4 years at the end of 1967 to about 2% years at the end of 1976. Since then, however, as the restriction has been relaxed further, the average maturity has gradually lengthened to about 4 years. DEBT HELD BY FOREIGN RESIDENTS During most of American history the debt of the Federal Government was held almost entirely by individuals and institutions within the United States. In 1946, just after World War II, the debt held in foreign official balances and international accounts was about $2 billion, less than 1.0% of the total debt held by the public. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 In the following years the debt held by foreign residents tended to grow gradually, and, as shown in table E-5, rose to just over $10.0 billion by the late 1960's. This was still less than 5% of the total Federal debt held by the public. Interest paid to foreign residents was a correspondingly small proportion of the total interest paid on debt held by the public. Table E-5. FOREIGN HOtDINGS OF FEDERAL DEBT (In billions of dollars) Debt held by the public Fiscal year Total Foreign1 Borrowing from the public Total2 Foreign Interest on debt held by the public Total Foreign3 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 12.3 11.6 11.4 10.7 10.3 4.1 3.1 2.8 23.1 -1.0 0.3 -.7 -.2 -.7 -.4 9.8 10.4 11.6 12.6 14.1 0.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 14.0 31.8 49.2 59.4 56.8 3.8 19.4 19.4 19.3 3.0 3.8 17.8 17.3 10.3 -2.6 15.6 16.3 16.6 18.5 22.4 .8 1.3 2.4 3.2 4.1 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 66.0 69.8 74.6 95.5 121.0 125.1 50.9 82.9 18.0 53.5 59.1 33.6 9.2 3.8 4.9 20.9 25.5 4.1 24.7 28.7 7.6 33.0 39.2 48.3 4.5 4.4 1.2 5.0 7.9 10.7 1980 1981 1982 715.1 794.4 929.4 126.4 135.5 146.4 70.5 79.3 135.0 1.3 9.2 10.8 60.4 78.9 97.7 11.9 16.0 17.6 Estimated by Treasury Department. These estimates exclude agency debt, the holdings of which are believed to be small. Borrowing from the public is defined as equal to the change in debt held by the public from the beginning of the year to the end, except to the extent that the amount of debt is changed by reclassification. Reclassifications are identified in the footnotes to table E-3. 3 Estimated by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. These estimates include small amounts of interest on the debt of Government-sponsored enterprises, which are not part of the Federal Government. 1 2 Foreign holdings began to grow much faster starting in 1970. This change arose in part out of decisions by foreign monetary institutions to intervene in foreign exchange markets. Because of the role of the dollar as an international currency, large amounts of the official reserves and other financial assets of foreign nations are held in dollar denominated form. Thus, the exchange market intervention by foreign monetary institutions often acted to increase their official reserves of dollars. U.S. Government securities are the safest and one of the most liquid forms of holding dollar assets. Consequently, as foreign countries acquired more dollar denominated official reserves, they purchased a large amount of U.S. Government securities. The second principal reason for the growth of foreign holdings was the massive current account surpluses of some countries, par- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll ticularly the OPEC nations, since 1974. The counterpart to these surpluses was the acquisition of financial assets, and the financial assets acquired in the United States largely took the form of U.S. Government securities. Both of these factors became less important in 1982. Many foreign countries drew down their dollar reserves to finance intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the aggregate OPEC current account surplus was eliminated. At the same time, the financial strains in the world economy apparently led foreign holders of dollars to increase their preference for the maximum safety of U.S. assets such as Government securities, relative to U.S. dollar-denominated bank deposits in the Eurocurrency market. As a result, increased foreign holdings of U.S. Government securities in 1982 primarily reflected a shift in the composition, rather than the size, of aggregate foreign dollar asset holdings. The increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Government securities during the past decade has therefore been primarily the product of foreign decisions. By the end of 1982 foreign holdings of Treasury debt had reached $146.4 billion, which was 16% of the total debt held by the public. Because of the rising interest rates, the interest paid on foreign holdings of debt grew much faster than did the foreign holdings themselves. The proportion of total interest paid to foreign residents grew in roughly the same way as did the proportion of the total debt held by foreigners. In the years before 1970, when debt held by foreign residents was relatively small, borrowing from the public was approximately the same as borrowing from the domestic public. Since 1970, though, borrowing from the domestic public has in some years been quite different from total borrowing. As table E-5 shows, borrowing from foreign residents was nearly all or a major part of total borrowing from the public during 1970-73 and 1977-78, although it was only 8% during the past 4 years. For the period since 1970 as a whole, borrowing from foreign residents was 21% of borrowing from the public. Most of the Federal debt held by foreign residents is owned by foreign central banks or other official institutions and is denominated in dollars. Beginning in December 1978, however, the Treasury sold the equivalent of $6.4 billion of securities denominated in Deutsche marks and Swiss francs to residents of Germany and Switzerland, respectively. By selling these securities, the Treasury acquired foreign currencies for use in intervention operations. No securities of this kind have been sold since January 1980, and the last issue will mature in July 1983. 380-700 0 - 83 - 9 QL : 3 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 BORROWING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES A few Government agencies are authorized to sell their own debt instruments to the public and to other Government agencies and funds. This agency borrowing is part of the gross Federal debt, and the disbursement of the proceeds from net borrowing is an outlay. Borrowing by the off-budget Federal entities is treated in the same manner as any other agency borrowing, although the outlays from disbursing the borrowed money are not included in the budget totals. Agency borrowing was shown in total in table E - l and is shown by agency in table E-6. In all 3 years more debt is repaid than is newly borrowed, and over the period as a whole total agency debt decreases by $1.6 billion or by one-quarter. The agency debt outstanding at the end of 1984 is less than 1.0% of gross Federal debt. As shown in the addendum to table E-6, the amount of agency borrowing has been profoundly affected by the Federal Financing Bank (FFB).5 The FFB was created in December 1973 under the Treasury Department as an off-budget Federal entity and began financial operations in May 1974. Its purposes are to assist and coordinate agency borrowing and guaranteed borrowing and to reduce the cost to the Government of some of its borrowing operations. It has the authority to purchase agency debt and guaranteed obligations and, in turn, to finance these transactions by borrowing from the Treasury. With the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury, the FFB is authorized to borrow from the Treasury without a statutory limit on the amount. 6 Since the FFB can borrow from the Treasury at lower interest rates than other agencies would have to pay in the market, this practice reduces the cost of agency borrowing. The FFB thus serves as a conduit for agency borrowing, and Treasury securities replace the securities of other agencies in the market. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not included in gross Federal debt. It would be triple counting to add together the agency borrowing from the FFB, the FFB borrowing from Treasury, and the Treasury borrowing from the public that was necessary to provide the FFB with funds to lend to the agencies. As a result of the FFB, several agencies that would otherwise borrow mostly in the market borrowed $2.9 billion from the FFB in 1982 and are estimated to borrow $2.4 billion in 1983 and $3.7 billion in 1984. Under proposed legislation, this group of agencies includes the Rural Housing Insurance Fund (which is part of the Farmers Home Administration) as of the beginning of 1984. The 5 FFB purchases of guaranteed obligations are shown in table E - l l . The operations of the FFB are discussed in some detail in Special Analysis F and in the Budget, Part 6. 6 The FFB also is authorized to have outstanding up to $15 billion of publicly issued debt. Treasury classifies this as public debt rather than agency debt. The FFB borrowed $1.5 billion in 8-month bills from the public in July 1974. All of its other borrowing has been from Treasury, because Treasury can borrow from the public at slightly lower interest rates than FFB would have to pay. No further FFB borrowing from the public is planned. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table E-6. AGENCY BORROWING 1 (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( - ) of debt Description Borrowing from the public: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2 Defense Education activities: College housing loans2 Higher education facilities 2 Health and Human Services2 Housing and Urban DevelopmentFederal Housing Administration Housing for elderly or handicapped2 Government National Mortgage Assoc.2 Revolving fund (liquidating programs)2 Transportation: Coast Guard Veterans Administration2 Export-Import Bank Postal Service Small Business Administration2 Tennessee Valley Authority Total, borrowing from the public.. Borrowing from other funds: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2 Defense Education activities: College housing loans2 Higher education facilities2 Health and Human Services2 Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Housing for elderly or handicapped2 Government National Mortgage Assoc.2. Revolving fund (liquidating programs) 2 Veterans Administration2 Small Business Administration2. Total, borrowing from other funds.. 1982 actual -31 -110 1983 estimate -131 1984 estimate -107 -7 -30 -82 Debt end 1984 estimate 141 129 242 61 5 -54 -59 -115 -24 66 52 240 44 * -358 -69 -12 -254 -178 — 81 -840 309 6 250 93 1,725 3,363 -28 -19 118 24 - 6 209 47 5 -27 -15 134 45 188 34 269 63 - 1 6 -104 - 2 2 -74 -295 -9 -11 1,136 -1,134 -263 -189 4,500 Borrowing from Federal Financing Bank: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration: Rural Housing insurance Fund 3 Export-Import Bank National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority United States Railway Association 1,545 29 -67 1,375 -23 1,164 40 -67 1,300 -46 333 1,458 40 933 1,000 - 1 8 26,904 16,576 210 2,087 14,585 127 Total, agency borrowing from Federal Financing Bank 2,858 2,390 3,746 60,489 Total, agency borrowing included in gross Federal debt ADDENDUM * $500 thousand or less. 1 Excludes agency borrowing from Treasury. 2 Certificates of participation in loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association on behalf of several agencies. 3 Under proposed legislation, the certificates of beneficial ownership sold by the Rural Housing Insurance Fund to the FFB will be reclassified as agency debt at the beginning of 1984. This reclassification increases the amount of agency debt held by the FFB by $26,571 million as of the beginning of 1984 but does not constitute borrowing from the FFB. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 certificates of beneficial ownership previously sold by this fund to the FFB are to be reclassified as agency debt at that time, as explained on page E-29. This reclassification increases the amount of agency debt held by the FFB by $26.6 billion but does not constitute agency borrowing from the FFB. Upon enactment of this legislation, the historical series of agency debt held by the FFB and agency borrowing from the FFB will be revised retroactively to be consistent with this treatment and with budget concepts. Because these agencies now borrow almost entirely from the FFB instead of the public, almost no new agency borrowing in the market took place in the last 8 years or is scheduled to take place in the future. The change in agency debt outstanding is therefore determined almost entirely by the repayment of maturing debt and consequently is negative each year. If the FFB had not been created, the agency component of gross Federal debt would be several times greater than it is now. The Treasury component would be correspondingly less. By the end of 1984, $2.0 billion of agency debt, or over two-fifths of the total, will be obligations of three of the five agencies listed in table E-6 that in recent years have borrowed almost exclusively from the FFB: the Export-Import Bank, Postal Service, and Tennessee Valley Authority. A total of $2.2 billion, or nearly one-half of all agency debt, will consist of certificates of participation in pools of loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association as trustee on behalf of several agencies, which are identified in table E-6. These certificates have not been issued since 1968. A further $153 million of agency debt will be family housing mortgages assumed by the Department of Defense (and Coast Guard) under programs almost entirely terminated about two decades ago. The remaining agency debt—$200 million, or 4% of the total—will have been issued by the Federal Housing Administration, which conducts the only program that has normally continued to borrow from the public. It issues debentures as payment for insurance claims on defaulted loans, so these securities could not be sold to the FFB. The Treasury supplies capital to business-type Government enterprises in return for both capital stock and debt. The debt is shown as "borrowing from Treasury" on the statements of financial condition for enterprises in the Budget Appendix. However, the equity and the debt instruments are the same in substance; and it would be double counting to add together the agency borrowing from the Treasury and the Treasury borrowing from the public that was necessary to provide the agencies with this capital. Therefore, agency borrowing from Treasury is excluded from the figures on agency borrowing and debt and from the discussion of this subject both in this special analysis and in all other parts of the budget documents. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES Trust funds and some public enterprise funds accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to meet future claims and demands. Such cash surpluses are invested mostly in Treasury debt and, to a very small extent, in agency debt. Since these are debt transactions, purchases are not counted as budget outlays and redemptions are not counted as budget receipts. Net investment by trust funds and other Federal agencies reached a high of $19.7 billion in 1979. In 1980 and 1981, however, due to recessions and certain structural factors, agency investment declined to about $10 billion, and in 1982, as shown in table E-7, it was $8.1 billion. Agency investment is estimated to rise to around $20 billion in 1983 and 1984. Total agency holdings of Federal securities will reach an estimated $258.9 billion by the end of 1984. This will comprise 19% of the gross Federal debt. One major trust fund—the civil service retirement and disability trust fund—will account for nearly half of total agency holdings and will have accounted for about four-fifths of total agency investment during 1982-84. All the trust funds together will account for 90% of the holdings at the end of 1984. Nearly all of the holdings in Government accounts will be Treasury debt, and the holdings of agency debt will continue to decline by small amounts. The trust funds financed by the social security tax—old age and survivors insurance (OASI), disability insurance (DI), and health insurance (HI)—disinvested $5.2 billion in 1982. This was the seventh consecutive year of disinvestment by these three funds as a whole. The financial conditions differ markedly among these funds, with OASI having the most severe short-term problems. Without a change to current law, OASI would be unable to pay full benefits on a timely basis starting in July 1983. The Administration supports the bipartisan solution recommended by the National Commission on Social Security Reform for OASI and DI. This solution would restore the financial solvency of social security. The Commission recommended a number of changes in taxes, benefits, and the timing of the Federal payment for noncontributory military service credits. These recommendations (together with several minor proposals), which are discussed in Parts 3,4, and 5 of the Budget, are reflected in table E-7 and throughout the rest of the budget estimates. The Commission's recommendations would increase the cash resources of OASI by $19.6 billion in 1983 and $10.2 billion in 1984 and would increase the cash resources of DI by $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion. As a result, investment by these three funds combined rises by $8.2 billion from 1982 to 1983 instead of dropping sharply. These individual fund figures do not include interfund borrowing. OASI has borrowed $12.4 billion from HI and $5.1 billion from DI in 1983 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table E-7. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES (In millions of dollars) Investment or disinvestment ( - ) Description Investment in Treasury debt: Health and Human Services.Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund.... Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fundHousing and Urban DevelopmentFederal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Other Interior: Outer Continental Shelf deposit funds Labor.- Unemployment trust fund Transportation: Highway trust fund Airport and airway trust fund Treasury: Exchange stabilization fund 1 Veterans Administration: National service life insurance trust fund Other trust funds Other Federal funds Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.: Trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Office of Personnel Management: Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund Other trust funds Postal Service fund 2 Railroad Retirement account: Trust fund Other Federal funds Other trust funds Other off-budget Federal entities Other deposit funds 3 Total, investment in Treasury debt.. Investment in agency debt: Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corp Health and Human Services: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Veterans Administration.- National service life insurance trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Office of Personnel Management: Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate — 11,223 3,360 2,658 2,053 13,629 568 -11,233 1,048 -12,246 8,028 152 1,506 366 -252 137 726 -3,882 302 203 157 1,367 -3,048 1,460 -436 -843 1,207 -118 608 160 260 182 -428 1,124 512 564 172 240 20 56 1,441 602 233 18 43 2,324 223 28 36 2,025 716 12,126 549 591 -723 276 623 13,501 856 -1,032 -709 212 456 14,806 452 -952 -99 342 741 * - 2 4 8,348 21,766 19,605 -5 -100 -50 -7 -18 - 2 2 -4 -7 -11 -100 Total, investment in agency debt.. -295 Total, investment in Federal debt. 8,054 21,757 19,594 1,022 1,967 19,456 -1,032 1,367 3,158 17,817 -953 -428 -11 MEMORANDUM Investment Investment Investment Investment by by by by Federal funds trust funds off-budget Federal entities deposit funds 3 * $500 thousand or less. •Investment in 1983 and 1984 is estimated as equal to interest collections. 2 Off-budget Federal entity. 3 Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. 5,710 591 731 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll and is estimated to borrow additional amounts from DI in 1984. Because of this borrowing between funds, the amounts of investment or disinvestment displayed in table E-7 for the individual funds do not reflect the underlying financial conditions of the respective funds. The Commission's recommendations' add large cash resources to the funds in 1984, though not as much as in 1983. At the same time, the shortfall under current law is higher in 1984 than in 1983. Consequently, while the combined level of investment of these funds in 1984 is much higher than would be possible under current law, it is not as high as in 1983. Partly as a result of this, no single factor dominates the change in total agency investment from 1983 to 1984 in the way that the change from 1982 to 1983 is dominated by the effects of the Commission's recommendations on the combined investment of OASI, DI, and HI. Much of the decline in investment by these three funds in 1984 is offset by a $4.2 billion rise in investment by the unemployment insurance trust fund. This higher investment is primarily due to improved economic conditions, which increase unemployment insurance payroll tax receipts and reduce unemployment compensation benefits. A comparatively small amount of Federal debt is held by deposit funds. Deposit funds are amounts held by the Federal Government as an agent for others (such as State income taxes withheld from Federal employees' salaries and not yet paid to the States); cash collections awaiting determination as to their final disposition; and other sums held temporarily before being refunded or paid into some other fund. Deposit fund balances are thus not the property of the Federal Government, and changes in balances are not included in the budget totals. Most deposit funds consist of uninvested balances, but a few funds are invested in Treasury debt and collect interest on their investments. Since a deposit fund is not Federal property, its holding of Federal debt is normally treated as d&bt held by the public rather than as debt held by a Government account. However, the investments of three deposit funds are treated as agency investments rather than as debt held by the public. One of these is a relatively small account that has the same characteristics as a trust fund. The other two deposit funds contain receipts from rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf, the title to which is in dispute between the Federal Government and the States. Until title is settled, these amounts are being held in deposit funds. The balances of these funds were first invested in Federal debt in 1980, when they acquired $2.1 billion of Treasury securities. They acquired $2.0 billion in 1981, and, as shown in table E-7, they acquired $0.7 billion more in 1982 and are estimated to hold $5.7 billion at the end of 1984. The Treasury concluded that the Federal claim on these receipts is sufficiently strong that it would be more E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 accurate to classify them as Government holdings of Federal debt rather than as debt held by the public. Increases in deposit funds, when they are not invested in Federal debt, increase Treasury cash balances without affecting the Government deficit or debt. Therefore, they provide a means of financing the deficit without borrowing from the public. Such increases appear as one of the "means of financing other than borrowing" in tables E-2 and E-9. Decreases in uninvested deposit fund balances have the opposite effect. Deposit fund investment in Federal debt is defined to be borrowing from the public under the normal rule, according to which the deposit funds are treated as part of the public. Consequently, under the normal rule a deposit fund investment decreases the deposit fund balances available to finance the deficit by means other than borrowing from the public. This is shown as a decrease in liabilities for deposit fund balances in table E-2 and E-9. However, when deposit fund holdings are treated as holdings by a Government account, the investment of deposit fund balances in Federal debt is an agency investment. Debt held by the public is therefore unchanged. Consequently, this transaction does not reduce the amount of balances available to finance the deficit by means other than borrowing from the public. This transaction does, however, increase the gross Federal debt and the debt subject to statutory limit (as shown in table E-9). LIMITATIONS ON FEDERAL DEBT Statutory limitations have normally been placed on Federal debt. Until World War I, the Congress ordinarily authorized a specific amount of debt for each separate issue. Beginning with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, however, the nature of the limitation was modified in several steps until it developed into a ceiling on the total amount of most Federal debt outstanding. The latter type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit currently applies to the total of: • almost all public debt issued by the Treasury since September 1917, whether held by the public or by the Government; • agency debt in the form of participation certificates issued during fiscal year 1968 under the Participation Sales Act of 1966; and • other debt issued by Federal agencies that, according to explicit statute, is guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States. The debt subject to statutory limit 7 includes virtually all Treasury debt. The small amount of Treasury debt not subject to limit is 7 The statutory debt limit is sometimes called the public debt limit. However, as explained in the text, the limit does not apply to all public debt and does apply to some debt other than public debt. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll shown in table E-8. It consists almost entirely of currencies no longer being issued, such as silver certificates and national bank notes, which were generally reclassified as Federal debt some time after being discontinued. The major part of agency debt is not subject to the general statutory limit. The only categories now included are the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration and the participation certificates sold in 1968. These securities comprise nearly one-third of all agency debt. However, most other agency debt is subject to special statutory limits. For example, the Tennessee Valley Authority was first authorized to issue revenue bonds to finance power facilities in 1959. The limit was $750 million. Subsequently, in order to enable TVA to finance additional facilities, Congress raised the limit several times. It is now $30 billion. The Postal Service is limited to $10 billion of securities outstanding and $2 billion of annual borrowing. Proposed appropriation bill limitations would restrict its annual borrowing to $1 billion in 1984 and would require that any borrowing for operating expenses during 1984 be limited to half this amount and repaid within 12 months. Table E-8. DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT (In millions of dollars) End of year Descriptions Federal debt held by the public Federal debt held by Government agencies Total, gross Federal debt Deduct: Treasury debt not subject to limit Agency debt not subject to the general limit: Department of Defense Export-Import Bank Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority Participation certificates1 Coast Guard Total, Federal debt not subject to limit Gross Federal debt subject to statutory limit Other debt subject to limit, and adjustments Total, debt subject to limit 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 929,427 217,560 1,144,427 239,317 1,347,427 258,912 1,146,987 1,383,744 1,606,339 606 606 606 388 88 250 1,725 1,030 1 264 18 250 1,725 1,030 153 6 250 1,725 1,030 4,087 3,894 3,770 1,142,900 14 1,379,850 14 1,602,569 14 1,142,913 1,379,864 1,602,583 1982 actual * * * $500 thousand or less. •Certificates of participation in loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association on behalf of several agencies (this excludes the certificates issued during 1968, which are subject to the debt limit). The only other debt subject to the general statutory limit is a very small amount of matured principal and interest. This is not defined as part of gross Federal debt. To derive the debt subject to E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 limit from the gross Federal debt also requires a very small accounting adjustment. The amount of debt subject to limit is compared in table E-8 with the gross Federal debt and the Federal debt held by the public. The debt subject to limit was $1,142.9 billion at the end of 1982 and is estimated to rise to $1,602.6 billion by the end of 1984. These amounts are three to four times as large as the permanent limit of $400 billion. As shown in table E-8, the debt subject to limit is much larger than the debt held by the public and is almost as large as the gross Federal debt. The debt subject to limit is so much larger than the debt held by the public because it includes Federal debt held by Government agencies. The small difference between debt subject to limit and gross Federal debt is mostly accounted for by agency debt not subject to the general limitation. The level of the statutory limit on the Federal debt has frequently been changed by Congress. During the 1960's Congress passed 13 separate acts to raise the limit or to extend the duration of a temporary increase in the limit, and during the 1970's Congress passed 18 such acts. Congress passed two more such acts in 1982. These frequent changes have come about both because the Federal debt has grown steadily and substantially and because of the nature of the debt limit legislation. Since 1971 the statutory debt limit has consisted of a permanent limit of $400 billion plus a temporary increment that was usually scheduled to expire in a year or less. Because the debt subject to limit has been more than $400 billion, new legislation has been required no later than the date when each temporary increment expired. Three times in recent years the temporary increment expired without having been extended, so for a few days on each occasion the Federal debt exceeded the statutory limit. The validity of debt issued prior to the expiration of the temporary ceiling was not affected, but the Treasury Department had to suspend all auctions of new securities and all sales of savings bonds. Such a situation creates uncertainty in the securities market and forces the Treasury to take actions that produce administrative costs. The statutory debt limit was formerly raised only by normal legislation. In September 1979, however, an alternative method of enacting statutory debt limits was established by statute. The purpose of the change was for the House of Representatives to vote on the debt limit as a part of the congressional budget process. The first and second concurrent resolutions on the budget (scheduled to be adopted by May 15 and September 15, respectively, for the forthcoming fiscal year) establish targets or ceilings for budget outlays, receipts, and the budget deficit and also recommend an appropriate level for the debt subject to limit. The recommendation as to the appropriate level of debt had not previously had the effect SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll of law, nor had it been part of the direct process whereby the debt limit was established. However, beginning with the resolutions adopted in calendar year 1980, the budget resolution that is adopted by the Congress has usually been a part of the process that establishes a debt limit. The vote in the House of Representatives is deemed to have been a vote in favor of a joint resolution setting the statutory limit. The joint resolution is thus deemed to have passed the House and is transmitted to the Senate for further legislative action. Upon final passage, it is sent to the President for his signature. This new procedure relates the decision on the debt limit to the congressional decision on the Federal deficit and the other factors, explained in the following section, that determine the change in the debt subject to limit. The debt limit may still be changed by ordinary legislation, and both methods have been used since the new procedure went into effect. The statutory debt limit was raised by ordinary legislation to $985 billion on February 7, 1981, for the period ending September 30, 1981. On May 20, 1981, the Congress adopted the first budget resolution for fiscal year 1982. The section revising the totals for 1981 declared that the appropriate debt limit for the rest of the 1981 fiscal year was $999.8 billion; the section on the 1982 totals declared that the appropriate debt limit for the 1982 fiscal year was $1,079.8 billion. Two joint resolutions were thus deemed to have passed the House. The Senate did not take action until September 29, 1981, when it passed both resolutions. Because of uncertainty over when Congress would act, the Treasury had to briefly postpone one auction of Treasury bills. The President signed the resolutions on September 30, so the debt limit was raised to $999.8 billion for September 30 and $1,079.8 billion for the period from October 1, 1981, through September 30, 1982. The increase for September 30, even though just for a single day, was necessary to permit all the transactions that would ordinarily take place on that day. The debt limit of $1,079.8 billion was not enough for the entire fiscal year 1982. The date when the debt limit would be reached was difficult to predict with exactness, and the Congress did not take final action until the amount of debt came very close to the limit. Because of uncertainty over when the debt would reach the limit and when Congress would act, the Government securities market felt disruptions and the Treasury was forced to alter its plans for debt management. One issue of notes was postponed, and offerings of bills and other notes were reduced in order to ensure that the Government would stay under the limit. On June 22, 1982, Congress passed the first budget resolution for fiscal year 1983, which declared that the appropriate debt limit for the rest of fiscal E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 year 1982 was $1,143.1 billion. A joint resolution establishing this as the debt limit was deemed to have passed the House, was passed by the Senate the next day, and was signed into law on June 28. The same budget resolution also declared that the appropriate debt limit for fiscal year 1983 was $1,290.2 billion. It was uncertain whether Congress would act on this resolution before October 1, when the limit was scheduled to fall to $400 billion. Consequently, Treasury borrowed virtually up to the debt limit at the end of September, most importantly by issuing $7.0 billion of notes and bonds that under normal circumstances would have been issued in early October. This enabled Treasury to accumulate as much cash as possible in late September so that it could pay the Government's bills for as long as possible in October in the event that the debt limit was not extended on time; and this also ensured that Treasury would not auction notes and bonds in late September that it could not legally issue on the date due in early October. However, the Senate passed the debt limit bill on September 23, and it was signed into law on September 30. The new limit of $1,290.2 billion, though, is substantially under the $1,379.9 billion of debt subject to statutory limit that is estimated to be outstanding at the end of 1983. Therefore, a further increase will be necessary before September 30, 1983, in order for the Federal Government to meet its obligations. FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND THE CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT The year-to-year change in debt subject to limit, unlike the change in debt held by the public, is not determined principally by the size of the total Government deficit (that is, by the sum of the budget deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities). The trust fund surplus or deficit, which makes up part of the budget surplus or deficit, has no essential effect on the amount of debt that is subject to limit. This is explained below in a discussion that is more technical than the rest of this special analysis. The budget consists of two major groups of funds: Federal funds and trust funds.8 The trust funds collect certain taxes and other receipts to be used for specified purposes, such as paying social security or unemployment insurance benefits. The Federal funds comprise the rest of the budget. Their resources are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. The off-budget Federal entities make up a third group of fiscal operations, analogous to the Federal funds and trust funds groups. If the off-budget entities were included in the budget, they would be classified as Federal funds. 8 Data for Federal funds and trust funds are presented in Special Analysis C, "Funds in the Budget." SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll When the Federal funds have a deficit, this deficit must generally be financed by borrowing. The borrowing is necessary regardless of whether the trust funds have a surplus. This is because the trust fund surpluses are mostly invested in securities issued by Federal funds, and these securities are defined as Federal debt. If the trust funds have $1 billion more of tax receipts, the Treasury has to sell $1 billion less of debt to the public but it has to issue $1 billion more of debt to the trust funds. Therefore, the trust fund surplus does not reduce the need for the Federal funds to issue debt in order to finance the Federal funds deficit. Federal funds borrowing consists almost exclusively of the Treasury selling debt securities that are subject to the statutory limit. As a result, the Federal funds deficit must generally be financed by an increase in debt subject to statutory limit. The deficits of the off-budget Federal entities are generally financed in the same way as the Federal funds deficit. Therefore, the Federal funds deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities generally have to be financed by selling debt securities that are subject to the statutory limit; and these securities are sold to either the public, the trust funds, or certain Federal revolving funds or deposit funds. Table E-9 shows in detail the relationship of the change in debt subject to limit to the Federal funds deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities. The total of these deficits is an amount that has to be financed. Some relatively small portion may be financed by means other than borrowing, such as seigniorage and a decrease in those cash assets held by Federal funds and off-budget Federal entities (however, if the sum of these other means of financing is negative, then these other means comprise a further amount that has to be financed.)9 A small portion may be financed by the Federal funds or off-budget entities (or certain deposit funds 10) selling their investments in Federal debt. Another small portion may be financed by these funds or entities issuing debt that is not subject to the statutory limit. The remainder of the amount to be financed can only be financed by selling debt subject to the statutory limit. This ordinarily comprises most of the total. Thus, the sum of the deficits of the Federal funds and the off-budget Federal entities approximately determines the increase in debt subject to statutory limit. In 1982, for example, the total Federal funds and off-budget deficit to be financed was $134.2 billion. The means of financing other than borrowing required an additional $6.5 billion of financing by debt subject to limit, primarily because of the increase in cash discussed previously. The Federal funds, the off-budget entities, and certain deposit funds increased their holdings of Federal debt by $2.3 billion, which had to be financed by still further borrowing in the same way as their deficits had to be financed; and they decreased their debt outstanding that was not subject to limit E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table E-9. FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT 1 (In millions of dollars) Description Federal funds surplus or deficit ( - ) Deficit ( - ) of off-budget Federal entities Total, amount to be financed Means of financing other than borrowing: Decrease or increase ( - ) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease ( - ) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc Deposit fund balances2 Seigniorage on coins Total, means of financing other than borrowing Decrease or increase ( - ) in investments in Federal debt by Federal funds, off-budget entities, and deposit funds 3 Increase or decrease ( - ) in Federal funds and off-budget entity debt not subject to limit 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate 1986 estimate -116,860 -226,102 -205,721 -229,493 -193,354 -9,447 - 1 7 , 3 3 1 - 1 7 , 0 4 5 -14,042 - 1 0 , 4 6 2 -134,191 -243,147 -219,763 -239,955 - 2 0 2 , 8 0 1 -11,911 7,200 4,672 338 390 412 572 507 -500 -1,201 647 813 888 -6,511 8,691 -1,054 813 888 -2,343 -2,302 -1,777 -1,037 -193 -124 Total, requirements for borrowing subject to debt limit -144,083 -236,951 -222,719 -239,142 -201,913 Change in debt subject to limit but not part of Federal debt, and adjustments Change in debt subject to limit 11 144,095 236,951 222,719 239,142 201,913 * $500,000 or less. 'Several amounts have been assumed to be zero during 1984-86 because they are usually small and cannot be estimated accurately. 2 Does not include investment in Federal debt securities classified as debt held by the public. 3 Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. by $1.0 billion, which had to be replaced by an equal amount of debt that was subject to limit. Therefore, a total of $144.1 billion had to be borrowed subject to the debt limit. The trust fund surplus does not have an explicit effect in table E-9. However, to the extent that trust fund surpluses are used to increase the trust fund holdings of uninvested cash assets instead of Federal debt securities, the debt subject to limit is reduced. This is because the cash available from the trust funds surplus can be used to finance Federal funds outlays without recording an increase in Federal debt. In table E-9 the increase in uninvested cash assets of the trust funds is recorded as an increase in the liabilities of Federal funds for checks outstanding, etc. (i.e., an increase in the liabilities of Federal funds to trust funds). This increases the Federal funds means of financing other than borrowing, which in turn reduces the requirement for borrowing subject to the statutory 9The amounts for means of financing other than borrowing exclude the amounts attributable to trust funds. It is not known how the trust fund open book balances are divided between cash and monetary assets and liabilities for checks outstanding, etc. In table E - 9 they are all assumed to be in liabilities for checks outstanding, etc. 10Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll limit. The uninvested cash assets of the trust funds do not usually change a great deal from year to year. By law the trust fund surpluses must generally be invested in Federal debt, and during 1973-82 the increase in trust fund holdings of Federal debt equalled 96% of the cumulative trust fund surplus. Consequently, the effect of the trust fund surplus on debt subject to limit is minor. Since the trust fund holdings of Federal debt are included almost entirely in debt subject to limit, but not in debt held by the public, the amount of debt held by the public is substantially less than the amount of debt subject to limit. Since the trust funds as a group almost always have a surplus, the change in debt held by the public from one year to the next is almost always less than the change in debt subject to limit. As can be calculated from table E-8, during 1983 and 1984 the debt subject to limit is estimated to increase by $459.7 billion, whereas the debt held by the public is estimated to increase by $418.0 billion. The present analysis helps to demonstrate the difficulty in preventing a continual rise in the Federal debt. Table E-2 showed that the Government would have to borrow from the public even if the budget were exactly balanced, because it would have to finance the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities. Table E-9 shows that the debt subject to statutory limit would almost surely continue to rise even if the total Government deficit were exactly zero and, as a result, the debt held by the public remained constant (that is, even if the budget had a surplus, and this surplus was large enough so that the budget and off-budget outlays were together just in balance with receipts). In order to keep constant the debt subject to limit, the following condition must be met as an approximation: the Federal funds portion of the budget must have a surplus, and this surplus must be as large as the off-budget deficit. If this condition is met, the "amount to be financed" in table E-9 would be zero, and (as an approximation) the requirements for borrowing subject to the debt limit would be zero. Because the trust funds almost always have a surplus, a balance in the budget (plus the offbudget entities) would imply that there would still be a deficit in the Federal funds (plus the off-budget entities). Therefore, it is more difficult to have a balance in the Federal funds plus the offbudget entities than it is to have a balance in the budget plus the off-budget entities; and, in consequence, it is more difficult to prevent a rise in the debt subject to statutory limit than in the debt held by the public. This can be illustrated by comparing the borrowing from the public in table E-2 with the borrowing subject to the debt limit in table E-9. From 1983 to 1986, borrowing from the public decreases by $58.7 billion, in line with the decline in the total Government E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 deficit. Table E-9 shows, however, that borrowing subject to the debt limit decreases by only $35.0 billion. This difference is primarily because a large part of the reduction in the total Government deficit is accounted for by a $27.3 billion increase in the trust fund surplus. This reduces borrowing from the public by an equal amount but does not reduce the need to issue debt subject to the statutory limit. This analysis also applies to the difficulty in preventing a continual rise in the gross Federal debt. Gross Federal debt is nearly the same as debt subject to statutory limit, as explained in the previous section. Therefore, the same approximate condition is necessary in order to prevent a continual rise in gross Federal debt: the Federal funds portion of the budget must have a surplus, and this surplus must be large enough so that the Federal funds and the offbudget entities are together in balance. FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING The effect of the Government on borrowing in the credit market arises not only from its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also from its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. Federally assisted borrowing is of two principal types: Government-guaranteed borrowing, and borrowing by Governmentsponsored enterprises. Guaranteed borrowing consists of loans for which the Federal Government guarantees (or insures) the payment of the principal and/or interest in whole or in part. Guaranteed loans have diverse characteristics. The loans may be made to individuals, businesses, State and local governments, or foreign governments. The guaranteed obligation may be a loan made by a bank or other institutional lender, it may be a security sold in the capital market, or it may be a security sold to the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Guaranteed borrowing is another term for guaranteed lending. Guaranteed loans include most loan asset sales made by Federal agencies. Loan assets are loans that an agency has made to the public and for which repayments are still owed. A guarantee by the selling agency is usually attached. Loan asset sales are offsets to the outlays of the agency that sells them. Therefore, if the selling agency is in the budget, the budget outlays caused by the direct loans are offset by the amount of the sales of loan assets. In some cases the agency sells the direct loans themselves, and in other cases the agency sells securities (sometimes called participation certificates or certificates of beneficial ownership) that are backed by loans that the agency continues to hold and service. The certificates of beneficial ownership sold by the Farmers Home Administration (a budget agency) and the Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund (an off-budget Federal entity) would be SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll classified as Federal debt according to the recommendations of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts.11 The Commission concluded that, as a means of financing outlays, there is no difference between an agency selling securities labeled "certificates of beneficial ownership," the same agency selling securities labeled "debt," and the Treasury selling securities labeled "debt." However, according to statute these certificates are required to be treated as loan assets instead of Federal debt. Since the certificates are guaranteed, they are classified as guaranteed loans. These certificates of beneficial ownership are currently sold almost entirely to the FFB, but some certificates sold by the Farmers Home Administration before FFB was established are still outstanding and continue to mature. The net amount of sales to the FFB less repayments (i.e., the increase in certificates outstanding held by the FFB) is shown below for 1981-84 (in millions of dollars): 1981 actual Farmers Home Administration Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund 10,860 683 1982 actual 4,915 528 1983 estimate 4,171 565 1984 estimate 560 465 Under proposed legislation, the certificates of beneficial ownership sold by one of the funds comprising the Farmers Home Administration—the Rural Housing Insurance Fund—will be treated as agency debt as of the beginning of 1984. This reclassification increases the amount of agency debt outstanding held by the FFB by $26.6 billion at the beginning of 1984; and it reduces the amount of guaranteed loans outstanding held by the FFB by an equal amount. This reclassification does not, however, constitute agency borrowing from the FFB, nor does it constitute the repayment of guaranteed loans. Borrowing by the Rural Housing Insurance Fund from the FFB during 1984 is shown in the addendum to table E-6 as $333 million. Upon enactment of this legislation, the historical series for budget outlays, agency debt held by the FFB, and agency borrowing from the FFB will be revised retroactively to be consistent with this treatment and with budget concepts. Loan guarantees are designed to allocate economic resources toward particular uses by providing credit at more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in the private market. The major use of loan guarantees is to support housing, but in recent years guarantees have increasingly been used for other purposes. As shown subsequently in table E - l l , primary guaranteed borrowing (which excludes guarantees of loans previously guaranteed and also direct loans made by one Federal agency and guaranteed by 11 Report of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967), pp. 8, 47-48, and 54-55. 380-700 0 - 83 - 10 QL : 3 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 another) was $20.9 billion in 1982 and is estimated to be $55.8 billion in 1983 and $48.9 billion in 1984. Special Analysis F presents detailed data on guaranteed loans and loan asset sales. The other type of federally assisted borrowing is borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises. These enterprises were established and chartered by the Federal Government to perform specific credit functions but are now entirely privately owned. The rule governing the budget treatment of these enterprises was established in 1967 in accordance with a recommendation by the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. The Commission, whose report led to the adoption of the unified budget, recommended that the budget exclude those Government-sponsored enterprises that are entirely privately owned.12 Therefore the transactions of these enterprises are not included within the Federal budget, and their debt is not part of gross Federal debt. The seven Government-sponsored credit enterprises are essentially financial intermediaries. They borrow in the securities market and lend their borrowed funds for specifically authorized purposes either directly or by purchasing loans originated by the private groups that they were established to assist. The borrowing programs of these enterprises are subject to Federal supervision. In addition, they all consult the Treasury Department, either by law or by custom, in planning their market offerings. The Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home Loan Banks, and the Student Loan Marketing Association are required to obtain Treasury approval of the terms and timing of specific offerings. The Student Loan Marketing Association (SLMA) borrowed exclusively from the Federal Financing Bank from the time of FFB's establishment until May 1981.13 Since that time SLMA has also sold notes to the public, without a guarantee, and beginning in 1982 has borrowed from the public to finance all of its increase in debt outstanding above $5.0 billion. The three enterprises regulated by the Farm Credit Administration—the Banks for Cooperatives, Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Federal Land Banks—now borrow by issuing consolidated Farm Credit bonds and notes rather than securities under their separate names. Government sponsorship of these enterprises has given them various direct benefits. These benefits differ from one enterprise to another and from one type of debt security to another, but they generally include such advantages as the following: the debt securities can be held by federally regulated financial institutions in a number of cases where other private securities or State and local securities are not eligible; the enterprises are exempt from Federal Ibid., pp. 29-30. is the only Government-sponsored enterprise whose new securities can be guaranteed by the Government and therefore bought by the FFB. The Secretary of Education has authority to guarantee SLMA securities issued prior to October 1, 1984. 12 13 SLMA SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll income taxation; the interest on their debt securities is exempt from State and local income taxation; and the enterprises are perceived to have a special relationship with the Federal Government. Because of these benefits, the Government-sponsored enterprises can borrow at interest rates only slightly higher than the interest rates paid by Treasury on Federal debt. Furthermore, all of these enterprises have a history of successful financial performance. Hence, despite the absence of Federal guarantees, the obligations of these enterprises are sold at interest rates only a little higher than the rates on comparable Treasury issues. The operations of the Government-sponsored enterprises are not subject to the Federal budget review process; and the economic assumptions on which their borrowing estimates are based for 1983-84 are not necessarily the same as the Administration's economic forecast, which is used for the budget. In order to show the borrowing by this sector as a whole from the rest of the market, the total borrowing figures in table E-10 are calculated net of the borrowing by one Government-sponsored enterprise from another. Most of this adjustment is accounted for by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Banks or repaying its debt to them. Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises has recently risen to much higher levels than before. Until 1978 the largest amount of borrowing by this sector as a whole had been $14.9 billion in 1974. Borrowing increased sharply to $24.1 billion in 1978, however, and then grew further to $27.5 billion in 1980 and $38.6 billion in 1981. Borrowing in 1982 expanded to $47.8 billion, and the Government-sponsored enterprises estimate that it will increase to $53.8 billion in 1983 and $54.7 billion in 1984. This large growth in borrowing is due primarily to the three Government-sponsored enterprises that borrow to support housing through the mortgage market: the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB). During 1982-84 they borrow 82% of the total funds raised by sponsored enterprises, whereas in previous years they borrowed on the average only 64%. In 1981, as shown in table E-10, the FHLB alone predominated in Government-sponsored borrowing. It borrowed more than half of the total funds raised by sponsored enterprises in that year, and its increase in borrowing over 1980 ($14.6 billion) was more than the increase in borrowing by the sector as a whole. This borrowing was used to meet the demand for advances by the FHLB's member savings institutions, primarily savings and loan associations, which borrowed much more from the FHLB than they repaid. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table E-10. BORROWING BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( - ) Description Education activities: Student Loan Marketing Association Housing and Urban Development: Federal National Mortgage Association Farm Credit Administration:1 Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 1981 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate Debt outstanding end 1984 estimate 1984 estimate 2,223 2,325 1,404 1,175 9,472 4,342 19,251 27,813 24,870 128,622 737 1,921 6,819 -423 -258 5,427 1,252 1,991 5,181 1,104 2,535 5,968 11,055 25,549 57,652 21,029 1,847 3,216 17,430 -2,197 17,836 -270 18,647 58,377 77,256 38,917 46,968 53,280 54,029 367,984 Less increase in holdings of debt issued by Government-sponsored enterprises 280 -881 -500 -700 2,481 Total, borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises 38,637 47,849 53,780 54,729 365,503 Total 'The debt represented by consolidated bonds is attributed to the respective Farm Credit banks. The pattern of sponsored borrowing has shifted, however, away from the FHLB and toward FNMA and FHLMC. This is summarized in the table below, which shows the change in the level of borrowing from one year to the next (in billions of dollars): 1983 estimate 1984 estimdte -17.8 Federal Home Loan Banks 30.5 Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation... -4.6 Other -5.4 9.0 2.8 1.9 -2.1 1.0 8.1 6.3 0.7 1982 actu3t Total The FHLB's borrowing fell by $17.8 billion in 1982, from $21.0 billion to $3.2 billion. This was due to a decrease in its net loans to savings institutions of $18.1 billion. Its advances were large, but the repayment of its advances rose greatly and was even larger. The decrease in FHLB borrowing was more than offset by a $30.5 billion increase in FNMA and FHLMC borrowing combined. As explained in Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs/' this was due in large part to the FHLMC greatly expanding its program of mortgage-backed participation certificates and FNMA introducing its own program of mortgage-backed securities. Both of these programs purchase conventional mortgages, package them into pools, and sell participation certificates in these pools. FHLMC and FNMA estimate that they will expand their programs further in SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll 1983, by enough to raise their borrowing $9.0 billion, and will maintain nearly the same lev4 of borrowing in 1984. Thus, support for the mortgage market by Government-sponsored enterprises has shifted away from direct loans to savings institutions (FHLB) and toward mortgage purchases (FNMA and FHLMC) from mortgage banking companies and financial institutions. Borrowing by the other Government-sponsored enterprises is not estimated to change so greatly. FHLB borrowing is estimated to decrease further in 1983, but to a much smaller extent than in 1982, and then to rise a little in 1984. The Farm Credit Banks and Student Loan Marketing Association, in total, estimate that they will increase their borrowing by small amounts in both years. The Federal Government provides a different kind of assistance to State and local government borrowing than it does to other borrowers through loan guarantees and Government-sponsored enterprises. It exempts the interest on State and local debt from Federal income tax. This reduces the interest rate these governments have to pay and thereby encourages them to borrow larger amounts. Tax exemption has also been extended to certain bonds nominally issued by a State or local government to raise funds for private purposes. These private purpose bonds, such as industrial development bonds, now comprise nearly half of all new long-term, tax-exempt issues. In 1982 the total tax-exempt borrowing estimated in the Federal Reserve flow-of-funds accounts was $46.2 billion, of which $3.3 billion was also guaranteed by the Federal Government. Tax-exempt borrowing is discussed further in Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs/' and, from a different perspective, in Special Analysis G, "Tax Expenditures/' TOTAL FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING Table E - l l summarizes Federal and federally assisted borrowing. Federal borrowing from the public is presented in total. Guaranteed borrowing and borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises are presented both as total amounts for the sector as a whole and as net amounts. The net amounts were adjusted in order to remove double counting in the aggregation of total Federal and federally assisted "borrowing. Double counting would otherwise occur when a Federal agency or a Government-sponsored enterprise bought (or sold) a Federal or federally assisted debt security. This is because borrowing would occur both when the security was initially sold and when the Federal agency or Government-sponsored enterprise borrowed in order to finance its purchase. About three-fifths of Federal and federally assisted borrowing each year during 1982-84 is made up of Federal borrowing to finance the budget deficit. Another portion is made up of Federal borrowing to finance the off-budget deficit, most of which is ac- E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table E - l l . NET BORROWING BY GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT-GUARANTEED BORROWERS, AND GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (In billions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( - ) Description Federal borrowing from the public 1 Guaranteed borrowing2 Less increase in guaranteed loans held by Federal agencies: Federal Financing Bank Government National Mortgage Association Primary guaranteed borrowing3 Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises4 Less increase in holdings of Federal debt Less increase in Government-sponsored debt held by Federal agencies: Federal Financing Bank Tennessee Valley Authority Less increase in holdings of guaranteed loans.Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Farm Credit Banks Student Loan Marketing Association5 Net Government-sponsored borrowing Total, Federal and federally assisted borrowing 1982 actual 1984 estimate 1983 estimate Debt outstanding end 1984 estimate 135.0 215.0 203.0 1,347.4 34.8 69.4 59.0 533.6 14.2 -.2 14.2 -.6 10.2 -.1 94.4 3.4 20.9 55.8 48.9 435.8 47.8 2.6 53.8 -.4 54.7 -.3 365.5 3.8 .7 .1 - 1_. 0* 5.0 .1 -.7 -1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 36.9 .1 1.0 .1 4.5 43.8 53.5 55.0 314.0 199.7 324.3 306.8 2,097.2 _ * * * _ * _* _* * $50 million or less. 'See table E-l. 2This line is the same as "guaranteed loans (net)" in table F-9 of Special Analysis F. To avoid double counting, it is calculated net of guarantees of loans previously guaranteed and guarantees of Federal agency debt. 3 "Primary guaranteed borrowing" in this table is the same as "primary guaranteed loans" in table F-9. 4 From table E-10. 5 The increase in holdings of guaranteed loans by the Student Loan Marketing Association is subtracted out on this line only to the extent that SLMA borrows from the public. To the extent that SLMA borrows from the FFB, the increase in holdings of guaranteed loans is ultimately financed by Federal borrowing and the loans are therefore classified as direct loans rather than guaranteed loans. This amount is subtracted out above as an increase in Government-sponsored debt held by Federal agencies. counted for by the Federal Financing Bank's purchases of guaranteed obligations. As shown in table E - l l , the FFB is estimated to buy one-quarter of the total increase in guaranteed obligations outstanding during these years. Since the FFB finances these purchases by borrowing from the Treasury, which in turn borrows from the public, these transactions substitute Federal borrowing in the market for guaranteed borrowing. Federal borrowing for all purposes during 1982-84 comprises 67% of total Federal and federally assisted borrowing; Federal debt held by the public at the end of 1984 is 64% of the total Federal and federally assisted debt outstanding. The following chart depicts the trends in Federal and federally assisted borrowing from 1966 to 1984. The series are volatile, and the fluctuations are dominated by Federal borrowing, which is driven primarily by the Federal deficit. The fluctuations in the Federal deficit, in turn, are strongly related to the pattern of SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll recession and recovery. Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing increased steadily and substantially from $80.8 billion in 1979 to $199.7 billion in 1982. Federal and federally assisted borrowing is estimated to increase still further to $324.3 billion in 1983, largely due to a rise in Federal borrowing. In 1984 all three types of Federal and federally assisted borrowing are estimated to level off, and the total is estimated to decline by a small amount. As the chart shows, Federal and federally assisted borrowing is now a great deal higher than a decade ago. Much of the increase parallels the growth in the economy and in the total funds raised by the non-financial sector through borrowing in the credit market. However, total Federal and federally assisted borrowing has increased as a proportion of the total funds raised. This proportion increased from 17% during 1960-69 to 21% during the first half of the 1970's and 27% during the second half. In 1980 and 1981 the proportion was higher still, reaching 34% and 33% in those 2 years, respectively; and in 1982 the proportion rose sharply to 49%. Thus Government programs have recently influenced the allocation of funds raised in financial markets more than they did in the preceding years. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS Federal and federally assisted credit programs play a significant role in the functioning of the Nation's economy and financial markets. This credit assistance is primarily in four forms: direct loans from the Federal Government, Federal guarantees of private lending, lending by privately owned Government-sponsored enterprises, and access to tax-exempt credit. Upon assuming office, the Administration took immediate steps to revise the excessive growth trends of Federal credit activity. An interagency Cabinet-level group was formed and undertook a comprehensive review of the Government's direct and guaranteed loan programs in order to shape a consistent credit policy. Although legislative success has been limited, Administration proposals for credit budget discipline have served to increase awareness of the serious effects Federal credit activity have had on the Nation's economy and financial markets. In the 1984 Budget, the Administration continues its strong commitment to control the growth of Federal credit and to strengthen the credit budget framework by proposing a 9% decrease below the 1983 levels. Much like Federal expenditures on goods and services or transfer payments, credit programs change the allocation of resources and the distribution of income. But these programs are not without cost. Recent experience has shown that these programs preempt private sector investment resources, and this absorption has an inhibiting effect on productivity and economic growth. Moreover, Federal credit distorts the market's assessment of true risk and return. This special analysis presents basic information on Government credit programs and plans over the budget period. It summarizes major trends in the credit activity of the Federal Government and Government-sponsored enterprises and presents the estimates of direct loans and guaranteed loans by major program groupings, agencies, and enterprises from 1982 through 1988. Reporting on Federal credit activities in the budget has expanded considerably in recent years. This year will be the first publication of long range credit budget estimates. Part 5 of the Budget presents information about major credit programs in the context of the budget functions for meeting national needs. Part 5 also shows the lending activities of the Federal Financing Bank according to F-l E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 function. Part 6 examines the debt transactions of the Federal Government, the oulays of off-budget Federal entities, loan guarantees, and Government-sponsored enterprises. Part 7 describes the credit budget and its place in the budget process. The Budget Appendix shows details and descriptions of the lending activities of individual budget accounts. Special Analysis E, "Borrowing and Debt" analyzes Federal borrowing and debt in some detail. FORMS OF FEDERAL CREDIT Direct loans are payments of cash, secured by a promise to repay the Government. The promise to repay may be in the form of a mortgage, a bond, a debenture, or a promissory note. Loan guarantees occur when a Government agency enters into a firm commitment to use Government funds as necessary to repay a lender upon default by the borrower. 1 The amount of the guarantee may be less than the full principal of the loan and may include the guarantee of interest. Loan insurance is a type of guarantee in which a Government agency operates a program of pooled risks, pledging the use of insurance premiums to secure a lender against default on the part of a borrower. 2 Tax-exempt bonds are obligations with exemption from Federal income tax on the interest income they produce, which allows them to be sold at interest rates below those for taxable securities. The subsidy is the difference between the tax-exempt and taxable interest rates. An element of subsidy is involved in all forms of Federal credit since assistance is given on terms or conditions more favorable than would have been available in private capital markets. A subsidy is provided, in general, because the Federal Government accepts risks that lenders in private capital markets are unwilling to bear or would bear only at higher interest rates than the Federal Government charges. Because interest subsidies reduce the cost of borrowing to the recipient, they are equivalent to cash grants to the borrower. In a wide variety of instances, Federal assistance of comparable value can be provided with either cash payments, credit assistance, or tax preferences. The subsidy is most easily recognized when Federal credit assistance provides an interest rate lower than could be provided in private capital markets. The subsidy is less visible if the Federal credit assistance provides for a lower interest rate from a private lender, longer maturities, higher loan-to-value ratios, or greater liquidity than would have been available in private capital markets. 1 A loan guarantee can be thought of as the action of attaching a Federal guarantee to a loan. A guaranteed loan refers to the loan, usually contracted in the private sector, with a Federal guarantee attached. In some cases, however, one Federal agency guarantees a loan, and another Federal agency makes the loan. 2 For the remainder of this analysis, the term loan guarantees will include insurance. The Federal Government is, in essence, the co-signer of a federally guaranteed loan. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A TRENDS AND A-ll DIRECTIONS Table F - l summarizes data on Federal participation in domestic credit markets during the last decade. It measures the volume of Federal and federally-assisted credit relative to total lending and borrowing in U.S. credit markets by nonfinancial sectors.3 This table uses two measures of Federal participation—lending (funds advanced) and borrowing (funds raised). Net funds advanced in a given year are the difference between the amount of loans outstanding at the beginning and at the end of that year. The total amount of funds advanced under Federal auspices has risen over four fold in the last decade, reaching $87.6 billion in 1982 and is estimated to reach $115.2 billion in 1984. The Federal participation rate for total funds advanced in U.S. credit markets reached a high for this decade of 21.8% in 1980. However, estimates for 1983 suggest that net funds advanced will increase substantially over 1982 primarily due to the expected surge in demand for guaranteed loans in housing programs and lending by Government-sponsored enterprises, both of which are discussed in later sections of this Special Analysis. The other measure of Federal participation is funds raised (borrowed) under Federal auspices, which includes funds raised for Federal loan guarantee and Government-sponsored credit programs as well as funds raised to finance the Federal deficit. This Federal participation rate is much more volatile, ranging from 13% to 49% of total borrowing over the past decade. The volatility is due primarily to swings in the budget deficit. This participation rate peaks in 1982 due to increases in Federal borrowing from the public, borrowing for guaranteed loans and Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing. Table F-12 summarizes the components of Federal credit advanced and raised under Federal auspices. 3The Government-sponsored enterprises are financial intermediaries, whereas the data in table F-l for total funds raised are defined as only including nonfinancial sectors. Financial institutions are excluded to avoid double counting. Nevertheless, the Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing, as well as Federal borrowing from the public and guaranteed loans, is properly compared with total funds raised. This is because the Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing stands as a proxy for the borrowing by nonfinancial sectors that is intermediated by the sponsored enterprises. The Federal assistance to Government-sponsored enterprises assists the ultimate non-financial borrowers whose loans are purchased or otherwise financed by the sponsored enterprises. Table F - l . FEDERAL PARTICIPATION IN DOMESTIC CREDIT MARKETS (Dollar amounts in billions) Actual Estimates 1973 1974 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total funds advanced in U.S. credit markets 1 Advanced under Federal auspices Direct loans: On-budget Off-budget Guaranteed loans Government-sponsored enterprise loans Federal participation rate (percent) 198.2 26.1 187.5 25.5 177.9 27.0 243.1 26.9 64.8 6.7 308.3 36.7 383.4 58.4 426.4 72.9 366.4 79.9 427.2 86.5 408.7 87.6 130.9 115.2 0.9 0.1 16.6 8.5 13.2 3.3 0.8 10.3 11.2 13.6 5.8 7.0 8.6 5.6 15.2 4.2 6.7 11.1 4.9 11.1 1.1 2.6 -0.1 3.1 10.3 2.6 9.0 13.5 11.7 11.9 8.6 11.2 13.4 25.2 15.2 6.0 13.6 25.2 28.1 17.1 9.5 14.7 31.6 24.1 21.8 5.2 20.9 28.0 32.4 20.2 9.1 14.3 20.9 43.4 21.4 5.2 14.4 55.8 55.5 -0.3 10.4 48.9 56.2 Total funds raised in U.S. credit markets Raised under Federal auspices Federal borrowing from public Borrowing for guaranteed loans Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing Federal participation rate (percent) 198.2 46.5 19.3 16.6 10.6 23.5 187.5 24.2 3.0 10.3 10.9 12.9 177.9 64.8 50.9 8.6 5.3 36.4 243.1 98.1 82.9 11.1 4.1 40.4 64.8 19.3 18.0 -0.1 1.4 29.8 308.3 79.0 53.5 13.5 12.0 25.6 383.4 93.9 59.1 13.4 21.4 24.5 426.4 80.7 33.6 25.2 21.9 18.9 366.4 123.5 70.5 31.6 21.4 33.7 427.2 142.1 79.3 28.0 34.8 33.3 408.7 199.7 135.0 20.9 43.8 48.9 324.3 215.0 55.8 53.5 306.8 203.0 48.9 55.0 12.2 38.3 16.5 42.0 11.4 38.4 20.9 47.8 3.8 10.5 20.5 57.2 24.4 82.8 27.3 100.2 30.0 109.9 32.5 119.0 42.9 130.5 (2) (2) (2) (2) 19.3 58.7 22.4 40.7 21.6 76.2 19.7 119.0 16.2 23.1 18.6 99.5 21.6 118.3 23.5 108.0 30.0 153.5 27.9 174.6 31.9 243.6 (2) (2) (2) (2) 29.6 21.7 42.8 49.0 35.6 32.3 30.9 25.3 41.9 40.9 59.4 (2) (2) 1 MEMORANDUM Tax exempt credit Funds advanced under Federal auspices, plus tax exempt creditFederal participation rate, including tax exempt credit (percent) Funds raised under Federal auspices, plus tax exempt credit Federal participation rate, including tax exempt credit (percent) 1 2 Nonfinancial sectors, excluding equities. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Not estimated. (2) (2) (2) (2) 1984 (2) (2) (2) (2) M s 1 > CO 00 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll A further form of Federal Government involvement in the credit market is the granting of tax exemption for the interest income on State and local government debt securities. This includes securities that finance both general government and private purpose securities, such as industrial development bonds. Tax exempt status induces purchasers of these securities to accept lower pretax yields than they demand for taxable securities. In this way, State and local governments receive an interest subsidy, and the Federal Government forgoes tax revenues. Because of the interest subsidy and its effect on the allocation of credit towards State and local borrowers, this tax exemption has many of the characteristics of the forms of Federal participation in credit markets shown in Table F - l . It differs, however, in that the choice of borrowers is not governed by the regulations of a Federal or federally chartered entity. The only means of Federal control over this lending is revision of the U.S. tax code. The memorandum to F - l shows the growth of tax exempt credit, and how the Federal participation rates would change if tax exempt credit were included. The following sections of this special analysis discuss changes in on-budget and off-budget direct lending, guaranteed lending, and lending and borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises in detail. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 The following chart shows the growth of Federal and federally assisted credit outstanding in the last decade. Since 1972, the total amount of loans outstanding has risen by $524 billion, from $241 billion, to $765 billion in 1982, an increase of 217%. Federal and Federal Assisted Credit Outstanding $ Billions $ Billions - 1,000 1,000L o a n s by GovernmentSponsored Enterprises 800- 800 600 600- Guaranteed Loans 400- -400 -200 200* Direct Loans (on a n d off budget) 0« 1 9 7 2 74 76 X8 80 8T 84 .0 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll THE CREDIT BUDGET Four years ago, budgeting for Federal credit was significantly improved through the initiation of the credit budget. This framework has enabled the annual activity of many loan programs to be controlled for the first time, and has provided a means of making decisions on credit programs in the context of all Federal credit and other budget activity. The credit budget supplements the regular budget during the executive formulation and transmittal of the President's program and during subsequent congressional action. It is designed to control individual program levels through appropriation bill language limiting the gross amount of direct loan obligation and loan guarantee commitments to be extended. The credit budget totals.—The credit budget total for 1982 is $101.3 billion, which is substantially below both the 1981 and 1983 totals. The sharp decline in 1982 is largely due to the effect of the recession and high interest rates on demand-based housing programs in the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Veterans' Administration. These mortgage programs decreased by 30% between 1981 and 1982. Table F-2. THE CREDIT BUDGET TOTALS (In billions of dollars) 1981 actual Direct loan obligations-.1 Federal Financing Bank Commodity Credit Corporation All other Total obligations Guaranteed loan Mortgage guarantees Low rent public housing Export-Import Bank Commodity Credit Corporation All other 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate 1986 estimate 15.1 5.9 32.5 13.6 11.5 22.5 15.1 11.9 22.1 14.4 8.0 16.4 14.9 5.6 16.9 15.3 5.6 16.5 53.5 47.6 49.1 38.8 37.4 37.4 35.3 18.5 7.4 2.0 13.3 24.6 13.3 5.8 1.6 8.4 64.5 14.6 8.0 4.8 10.8 59.7 14.7 10.0 3.0 11.3 60,2 16.5 10.0 3.0 11.6 60.8 18.1 10.0 3.0 11.2 76.5 53.7 102.7 98.7 101.0 103.1 130.0 101.3 151.8 137.6 138.4 140.5 44.1 30.3 36.4 28.2 68.2 27.0 58.6 21.8 58.6 20.4 58.6 17.1 commitments.-2 Total commitments Total credit budget MEMORANDUM Secondary loan guarantee commitments Guaranteed loans held as direct loans Excludes purchases of loan assets by the Federal Financing Bank and repurchases of direct loans by agencies from the FFB. Excludes commitments for guarantees of loans previously guaranteed (secondary guarantees) and for guarantees by one Government account of direct loans made by another Government account. These totals shown in the memorandum. 1 2 For 1984, the administration is proposing that the credit budget decrease by $14.2 billion below the 1983 totals. This represents a 9% decrease. Small changes in 1985 and 1986 over 1984 are due to proposed increases in guaranteed student loans, low rent public housing, and Veterans' Administration mortgage guarantees. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Major changes in the credit budget totals between 1983 and 1984 are shown in the table below. Table F-3. MAJOR CHANGES IN THE CREDIT BUDGET TOTALS (In billions of dollars) Direct loan obligations Credit budget totals, 1983 Changes: International security assistance CCC price supports and related programs Farmers Home Administration Education programs Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association.. Veterans' housing programs Export-Import Bank Small Business Administration Rural Electrification Administration Other Total change 49.1 -3.8 -3.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.7 -10.2 Credit budget totals, 1984 38.8 MEMORANDUM GNMA mortgage-backed securities (secondary guarantees). More detail on the proposed changes in the credit budget are in the later sections of this special analysis. Nature of the credit budget.—The credit budget consists of all direct loan obligations and loan guarantee commitments of Federal agencies. It is based on four principal concepts, all of which are intended to present the total amount of credit activity clearly and to facilitate legislative and administrative control. First, the credit budget makes no distinction between budget agencies and off-budget entities. All direct loan and loan guarantee programs of the Government are included. Second, the credit budget totals are based on gross levels of credit activity, without offsets for repayments. By excluding repayments, the credit budget measures the current level of program activity, and thereby enables control to be based on new activity, which is where the Government has discretion. Third, the credit budget is based on direct loan obligations and guaranteed loan commitments. Obligations for direct loans are contracts requiring that the Government disburse a loan immediately or at some future time. Commitments for guaranteed loans are agreements entered into by the Government to guarantee a loan when the borrower or lender fulfills stipulated preconditions. Both concepts define the point at which the Government becomes legally bound to extend credit, which is the point most amenable to executive and legislative control. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Fourth, guaranteed loan totals are based on the full principal of the loan, even if the contingent liability (i.e., the amount covered by the guarantee) is partial. Initially, the guaranteed loan totals only included the contingent liabilities. This was changed last year so that the credit budget would reflect the full impact of Federal credit on the economy more accurately. There are only a few programs where less than the full principal is guaranteed. The following, table shows the differences in loan guarantees outstanding between the contingent liability and full principal. Table F-4. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY AND FULL PRINCIPAL FOR OUTSTANDING GUARANTEED LOANS (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 48,798 108,779 56,492 125,844 64,707 144,158 Veterans Administration mortgage guarantees-. Contingent liability Full principal Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance: Contingent liability Full principal All other loan guarantees programs: Contingent liability Full principal 138,866 142,252 167,459 171,422 193,110 197,747 293,763 296,412 344,843 347,571 363,668 366,219 Total outstanding: Contingent liability Full principal 481,427 547,443 568,794 644,837 621,485 708,124 Some adjustments are required in calculating the credit budget totals to eliminate double-counting of loans involved in intragovernmental financing transactions. First, secondary guarantees, i.e. guarantees of loans that have a prior guarantee from another agency, are deducted from the gross guaranteed loan total. Second, guarantees by one agency of direct loans disbursed by another agency, usually the Federal Financing Bank (FFB), are deducted from the guaranteed loan total and shown only as direct loans. Third, loan assets sold by agencies to the FFB, and guarantees of those loan assets, are not included in credit budget totals, because the original loans are already recorded as direct loans of the originating agency. Fourth, a deduction for repurchases of loan assets by agencies from the FFB is introduced this year to eliminate one further form of double-counting. This occurs primarily in direct loan totals of the Farmers Home Administration (FmHA), which sells loans as loan assets to the FFB and then after a period of time, repurchases these loan assets. More detail on the operation of the FFB is in Table F-8. 380-700 0 - 83 - 11 QL : 3 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Appropriation limitations.—Limitations on new direct loan obligations and guaranteed loan commitments are proposed for enactment in the appropriation language for the budget accounts that support credit programs. Unlike appropriations of budget authority, appropriation limitations are not the source of authority to make obligations or commitments; rather, they place a ceiling on that authority. Because authority is provided in authorizing legislation, and for direct loan programs in appropriations of budget authority, these programs can extend credit even if there is no appropriation limitation. Without the appropriation limitations the annual activity of many credit programs would neither be limited by annual congressional action nor be limited in the context of total credit activity. Appropriation limitations are proposed for programs amounting to about two-thirds of the credit budget totals. The remainder are programs for which a limitation on annual activity is deemed unsuitable. Several kinds of programs are exempt from appropriation bill limitations. For these programs, control is generally exercised through authorizing legislation. The first type of exemption is for clear entitlements to qualified applicants, such as veterans mortgage guarantees. This exemption prevents control where none can exist without changing the basic nature of the programs. The programs in this category are similar to those budgetary activities considered relatively uncontrollable, many of which also are not acted on in annual appropriations. Several programs are exempted by policy decisions because of unique circumstances. For example, no additional constraint is placed on temporary advances that are authorized for some guaranteed loan and insurance programs, because the advances often avoid more costly claims by guaranteed lenders or insured institutions. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A - l l Table F-5—CREDIT BUDGET PROGRAMS EXEMPT FROM APPROPRIATION ACT LIMITATIONS (In millions of dollars) Guaranteed loan commitments Direct loan obligations 1982 actual Programs under appropriations control Programs exempt from appropriations control: Entitlement and mandatory programs: CCC price support and related programs... Agricultural disaster lending Public housing Veterans mortgage insurance Other veterans program Guaranteed student loans Policy exemptions: National Credit Union Administration Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Diplomatic emergencies Public Law 480 export sales CCC export credit Federal Highway Administration Federal Railroad Administration Tennessee Valley Authority NASA satellite leases Small Business Administration 1 Financing transactions: Guarantees and repurchases of CBO's (FmHA and REA) Federal Financing Bank Defaulting guaranteed loans: International assistance FHA mortgage insurance Guaranteed student loans VA mortgage insurance Other Subtotal, exempt programs Less-. Deductions to eliminate double counting.. Total, credit budget 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 23,973 24,459 20,422 11,454 2,217 905 11,152 2,000 1,000 5,685 1,540 1,000 154 159 166 105* 1 777 119 3 1 750 115* 1982 actual 1983 estimate 73,218 134,940 13,284 5,983 14,637 18,637 6,895 6,778 34 30 1,551 4,800 26 4,513 146 17 5,412 205 12,630 11,408 1 768 683 7,388 17,985 6,909 17,384 6,682 13,694 217 284 464 719 57 253 298 570 689 1,400 306 231 424 719 1,056 45 1,019 -20,018 43,601 42,925 -18,317 32,493 -14,088 45,107 -64,599 62,943 -95,216 47,556 49,067 -38,827 53,726 102,667 •$500,000 or less. 1 Congress did not enact an appropriation limitation on SBA programs. The Administration is re-proposing limitations for 1983 and 1984. The third type of exemption is for intragovernmental financing transactions, such as guarantees of certificates of beneficial ownership issued by the Farmers Home Administration and the Rural Electrification Administration, as well as all activity of the Federal Financing Bank. Since the loans in these cases are controlled through annual appropriation bill limitations, they need not be limited at the financing stage. Fourth, direct loans that arise from payment of claims on defaulted guaranteed loans are exempted for all credit programs. Payment of these default claims is mandatory. Table F-5 provides a complete listing of programs proposed to be exempt from appropriation limitations in the 1984 credit budget. E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 DIRECT LOANS Direct loans are made by both on-budget agencies and off-budget Federal entities. They are financed from a variety of sources including taxation, borrowing, and loan repayments.4 (For a discussion of off-budget Federal entities, see Part 6 of the Budget) Table F-6 shows loan activity by the headings "obligations" and "loan disbursements," "net outlays" and "outstandings". Obligations are firm written agreements by the Government to extend direct loans. Obligations in a given year need not always result in an equal volume of new direct loans since the conversion of obligations to loans can take time, and some prospective borrowers to whom obligations are made do not convert the obligations into borrowing. Loan disbursements, in turn, are the loans actually made in the specified year. They are primarily the sum of disbursements to make new loans but also include disbursements to pay guarantee claims.5 Net outlays are equal to the sum of all transactions that alter total loans outstanding, i.e. new loans less repayments of loans,6 liquidation of collateral, loan write-offs, and sales of loan assets. Net outlays of direct loans are also equal to the difference between the volume of loans outstanding at the end of the year and the volume outstanding at the beginning of the year. 7 Net outlays of total direct loans are expected to decrease by $3.9 counted as budget outlays. Net outlays of direct loans by off-budget Federal entities, although similar to on-budget net outlays, are excluded by law from the budget totals. Net outlays of direct loans are expected to decrease by $3.9 billion from 1982 to $19.6 billion in 1983, and are expected to fall still further, to $10.1 billion by 1984. The decreases are the result of a general reduction in lending activity, particularly by the Small Business Administration, whose direct business loan program is proposed to be ended, and by the Government National Mortgage Association, whose mortgage purchase activities are proposed for termination in 1984. Another contribution to low net loan outlays in 1984 results from the sale of a large amount of housing loan assets to the public by the Veterans Administration and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Reductions in direct loan obligations of $10.2 billion between 1983 and 1984 are primarily in the Commodity Credit Corporation, 4 Taxation and borrowing are in many cases indistinguishable sources of funds for a specific program. However, the treatment of loan repayments differs from program to program. 5 Upon default of a loan guarantee, the Government generally assumes ownership of the guaranteed loan. The lender is reimbursed for the amount of the guarantee, while the borrower owes the Federal Government directly rather than the original lender. Claims paid under insurance or guarantee programs are considered as direct loans until the acquired loans or collateral are paid off or liquidated. Proceeds of liquidation are considered repayments and realized losses are writeoffs. 6 Loan repayments and receipts from the sale of loans are generally netted from gross loan disbursements in determining net loan outlays, rather than being counted as budget receipts. 'The volume of loans outstanding is a stock concept referring to the total of loans that have ever been made, less principal repaid to date, loans written off and receipts from the sale of loans. Net loan outlays is a flow concept, the difference in loans outstanding at the beginning and at the end of a particular year. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll the Farmers Home Administration's rural housing insurance fund, the Rural Electrification Administration (REA), and the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Commodity Credit Corporation request for direct loan obligations of $8 billion for 1984 reflects a reduction of $3.8 billion from the estimated 1983 level. This reduction in lending is primarily due to the administration's new payment-in-kind program, in which farmers are offered, at no cost to them, surplus commodities held in CCC reserves or owned by CCC, in exchange for reducing their production of wheat, feed grains, rice or cotton. A decrease in the direct loan obligations of the rural housing insurance fund of $3.1 billion is proposed as part of the rural housing block grant to the States. The 1984 request for REA insured loans for the rural electric and telephone program reflects a reduction of $526 million from the estimated 1983 obligation level. The reduction is due to an anticipated increase in supplemental financing from the National Rural Utility Cooperative Finance Corporation and other sources to satisfy a part of the capital requirements of the rural electric systems. REA guaranteed loan originations financed by the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) are reduced by $1.4 billion to $3.3 billion in 1984. The Administration is proposing to eliminate subsidized direct loans in SBA's Business Loan and Investment Fund with the exception of $41 million in direct financing for minority enterprise small business investment companies. The remaining request for direct loans, $472 million, is for anticipated defaulting guarantees. Table F-6. DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars) 1982 Agency or program Estimate 1984 1983 1985 1987 1986 ON-BUDGET AGENCIES Funds Appropriated to the President: International Security Assistance: Economic Support Fund 366 632 481 465 468 478 718 718 Outstandings 5,204 5,620 6,040 6,764 7,482 8,200 Obligations Loan disbursements 800 501 -116 310 1,175 880 1,000 1,006 1,000 1,000 214 141 1,000 998 -62 78 48 1,000 1,000 -20 28 217 217 253 253 306 306 344 344 188 381 381 206 436 436 230 539 703 891 1,097 1,327 435 415 412 437 12,076 12,140 406 406 -108 11,916 406 406 100 12,010 406 406 -116 12,024 11,756 4,199 4,172 4,325 4,325 4,264 4,352 3,465 3,465 3,979 4,018 5,395 5,395 4,065 4,000 4,157 4,157 4,012 4,000 1,250 1,250 3,992 4,000 385 385 Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays Foreign Military Sales Credit.. Net outlays Outstandings Guarantee Reserve Fund.. Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays 652 141 Outstandings International development assistance.. Obligations Loan disbursements, Net outlays Outstandings Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration: Agricultural Credit: Program level Repurchases of loan assets- Obligations Loan disbursements, Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays 416 377 -241 416 -96 131 66 -420 420 — 74 164 64 -132 724 718 718 718 -30 718 718 718 -159 795 375 243 243 243 243 243 3,454 3,378 2,370 2,370 3,377 3,492 2,685 2,685 316 1,445 688 620 515 380 494 320 537 300 447 -160 -159 270 596 100 18 -143 -302 568 1,022 475 475 518 822 505 505 360 686 980 980 406 503 595 595 362 384 30 30 355 353 599 348 153 173 65 65 65 65 65 Obligations Loan disbursements. 11,500 11,629 11,877 11,877 8,040 8,040 5,600 5,600 358 5l,600 5,600 1,300 5,100 5,100 1,200 4,800 4,800 Outstandings 12,484 16,867 14,842 15,200 16,500 17,700 17,800 777 712 590 750 750 548 768 768 768 768 768 768 768 768 768 768 768 531 768 768 768 8,307 8,839 9,387 10,155 10,923 11,691 12,459 -110 -120 -110 -110 Outstandings Rural Housing Program level Repurchases of loan assets. Obligations Loan disbursements. Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings Rural Development: Program level Repurchases of loan assets. 1 Obligations Loan disbursements. Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings Commodity Credit Corporation price support and related loans. Net outlays Public Law 480 long-term export credits Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings Commerce: Economic Development Administration Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Education -378 — 132 6,325 14 101 -104 -177 21 4,382 92 -40 326 -108 -2,025 79 -203 -495 -83 Ul M O > 100 Outstandings 891 851 648 538 418 308 197 Obligations 504 570 424 524 574 649 749 > > tr1 m h-H Ul I h-i Cn Table F-6. DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Estimate Agency or program Loan disbursements Net outlays Outstandings Energy- Health programs.. Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing 654 294 9,859 10,329 4 4 40 40 498 1988 1987 574 649 749 207 273 376 10,623 62 10,685 10,892 11,165 11,541 40 40 44 44 46 46 47 47 49 49 4 39 38 Outstandings 13 53 90 132 175 220 267 Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays..... 27 41 -9 47 34 16 16 13 13 9 9 3 4 3 4 Outstandings 921 945 947 950 948 938 926 Obligations Loan disbursements 905 905 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 750 750 500 500 250 250 100 100 162 162 162 120 75 50 25 1,985 2,732 504 2,154 3 2,038 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Obligations Loan disbursements -21 23 2 42 3 -42 43 -1 -45 45 -10 -25 47 -12 -25 Net outlays -259 -640 Outstandings 4,074 3,433 3,366 2,199 1,264 1,222 1,180 Obligations Loan disbursements. 1,153 1,178 1,061 1,229 -107 766 1,215 -582 822 1,087 -665 840 915 -776 880 890 -622 934 857 -384 Outstandings 8,980 8,873 8,291 7,627 6,851 6,230 5,846 31 57 56 51 48 27 22 Net outlays Interior., 691 470 1986 Net outlays Outstandings Other Housing programs.. 622 1985 641 Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays Government National Mortgage Association. 1984 1983 Obligations 631 -68 -1,167 -943 -43 -42 34 52 57 54 49 27 1 31 36 35 30 9 441 472 508 543 573 582 584 Obligations Loan disbursements... 44 63 102 101 38 21 Net outlays 55 56 38 21 Outstandings 569 625 663 684 684 684 684 94 72 81 69 62 71 57 78 55 55 55 55 55 55 Loan disbursements... Net outlays Outstandings Transportation: Railroad programs. Other Veterans Administration: Housing loans and default claims Obligations Loan disbursements... Net outlays 31 25 36 43 20 20 14 Outstandings 434 459 495 538 558 579 593 Obligations Loan disbursements... 720 720 691 691 721 721 735 735 753 753 737 737 755 755 Net outlays Outstandings Insurance policy and other loans Loans to the District of Columbia. Obligations Loan disbursements... 259 234 163 67 1,906 1,516 1,774 2,008 2,171 2,238 2,373 154 154 158 158 164 164 167 167 169 169 167 167 164 164 251 -390 135 Net outlays -23 -14 -14 -15 -15 -17 -10 Outstandings 1,462 1,448 1,434 1,419 1,404 1,387 1,377 285 285 295 295 115 115 Obligations Loan disbursements... 117 116 84 -34 -36 -39 -42 Outstandings 1,684 1,799 1,883 1,849 1,813 1,774 1,732 Obligations Loan disbursements... 3,516 2,583 3,830 2,911 3,830 3,505 3,830 3,242 3,830 2,940 3,830 2,959 763 915 1,216 3,830 3,256 757 574 296 320 16,565 17,480 18,696 19,453 20,027 20,323 20,643 Net outlays Export-Import Bank 23 Net outlays Outstandings Table F-6. DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.. Federal Home Loan Bank Board.. Obligations Loan disbursements.. Outstandings 705 -31 624 -333 291 -11 280 -64 217 37 37 -173 -75 709 537 461 -101 360 -62 299 Obligations Loan disbursements.. 104 104 119 119 115 115 118 118 116 116 114 114 Outstandings 149 191 225 261 299 337 Obligations Loan disbursements.. 683 903 750 786 513 470 483 443 444 407 379 348 Outstandings Tennessee Valley Authority.. 654 1987 1986 758 Net outlays Disaster loans.. -51 1985 Outstandings Net outlays Small Business Administration: Business and investment loans- 296 274 Obligations Loan disbursements.. 1984 1983 Net outlays Net outlays National Credit Union Administration.. Estimate 1982 Agency or program Obligations Loan disbursements.. -86 34 42 34 -251 393 151 3,096 3,247 2,996 237 299 440 362 440 396 Net outlays -371 -332 -274 Outstandings 6,073 5,741 5,467 77 76 89 267 324 Obligations Loan disbursements.. Net outlays Outstandings 69 88 57 36 38 38 -248 -249 -276 2,627 2,378 2,102 440 396 440 396 440 396 -252 -234 —217 5,215 4,981 4,764 99 98 134 134 123 123 34 379 62 121 121 18 441 475 493 55 Other agencies and programs. Subtotal, on-budget agencies 1 1 1 1 * * * * Net outlays -224 Outstandings 1,091 14 38 7 1,098 Obligations 40,057 39,633 30,383 26,900 22,972 21,348 25,597 Loan disbursements, 33,896 34,220 27,991 21,754 20,995 19,851 19,456 -329 -285 1,356 1,850 1,217 Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings 15 45 9,107 5,162 1 16 -9 -3 -3 -8 -8 1,089 1,086 1,083 1,075 1,067 100,220 105,382 105,054 104,648 106,004 107,854 109,071 1,099 1,048 1,101 1,060 575 940 575 792 575 718 575 698 575 855 OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES Rural electrification and telephone revolving fund Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings Rural Telephone Bank. Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays Outstandings Federal Financing Bank 2 United States Railway Association, » Obligations Loan disbursements. 130 88 59 -106 -204 -268 -119 9,774 9,861 9,920 9,814 9,611 9,343 9,224 185 112 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 185 102 173 171 170 166 163 159 1,173 1,345 1,516 1,686 1,852 2,015 2,174 26,232 13,602 26,465 15,056 21,771 14,365 20,350 14,861 17,090 15,288 16,607 15,763 21,226 15,975 Net outlays 14,155 Outstandings 96,519 Outstandings 9,145 7,990 7,752 7,759 94,378 103,524 111,514 119,266 127,025 -64 -21 37 37 37 37 14,239 * Obligations Loan disbursements. Net outlays 10,192 110,758 * -42 123 58 37 I Table F-6. DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued 1982 Agency or program Obligations 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 27,751 22,531 21,110 17,850 j 17,367 21,986 16,646 17,015 16,302 Loan disbursements 14,762 14,345 14,435 15,490 15,838 16,191 Net outlays 10,400 9,209 7,953 107,588 122,023 105,852 115,061 -12,630 -12,630 -11,408 -11,408 -7,406 -7,406 -7,387 -7,387 -6,908 -6,908 47,556 49,067 Outstandings Less loan asset sales to the Federal Financing Bank 3 27,516 1983 00 Subtotal, off-budget Federal entities to o Estimate Obligations Loan disbursements 7,648 7,800 123,014 130,661 138,460 -5,489 -5,489 -1,801 -1,801 -843 -843 -5,252 -5,252 8 -6,681 -6,681 -5,096 -5,096 -1,661 -1,661 -821 -821 -5,054 -5,054 A 38,827 37,425 37,359 37,051 37,278 32,205 29,395 27,007 33,724 34,833 26,165 19,597 10,071 8,924 9,309 9,498 9,016 219,709 229,018 238,515 247,531 Net outlays Outstandings Less repurchases of loan assets from the Federal Financing Bank Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays Outstandings Grand total, net direct loans Obligations Loan disbursements Net outlays Outstandings 207,808 227,406 210,906 •$500,000 or less. 1 Negative outstandings occur in this account because the inventory of loans at FmHA is insufficient to cover the outstanding balance of CBO's held by FFB. 2 Net outlays for the FFB in 1984 have been adjusted to reflect the reclassification as Federal agency debt of the sales of CBO's to the FFB by the Rural Housing Insurance Fund. Due to this reclassification, net outlays of FFB in 1984 do not reflect the net change in the outlays of RHIF and the end-of-year balance of $26,572 million also is not reflected in the grand totals of outstandings for 1984 through 1988. 3 To avoid double counting, new loan assets purchased from agencies by the Federal Financing Bank are deducted. The amounts of the loan assets are already recorded as direct loans by the originating agency. This deduction affects new obligations and loan disbursements only. « M W a % 3» I W > w oo SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll L O A N ASSET SALES AND OTHER L O A N OFFSETS Loan asset sales are sales of direct loans to the public or the FFB. In most cases, the agency selling the loan also guarantees it. In the unified budget, loan asset sales are treated as offsets to agency outlays, which is the same way that loan repayments are treated. Loan asset sales reduce the agency's outlay totals, and if the agency is on-budget, reduce total budget outlays. After the sale, the loan is held privately or by a Federal account other than the original seller, while the Federal Government continues to bear the risk of default of the borrower. Traditionally, loan asset sales meant selling of title to the loans to the public. However, since the creation of the FFB, most loan assets are sold by on-budget accounts to the off-budget FFB, converting them from on-budget direct loans to off-budget loans. The largest volume of loan assets are certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's) sold by the Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) and Rural Electrification Administration (REA) to support their direct loan programs. CBO's are backed by pools of direct loans rather than by an individual loan. When a CBO is sold, the ownership of the specific loans is retained by the originating agency, and the agency continues to incur the servicing costs and to fully assume the risk of default on the loans. The President's Commission on Budget Concepts recommended that the sale of such securities be treated as borrowing, arguing that, as a means of financing outlays, there is no difference in substance between an agency selling securities labeled "certificates of beneficial ownership/' the same agency selling securities labeled "debt", and the Treasury selling securities labeled "debt." In these two cases, however, legislation requires that CBO's be treated instead as loan assets. A third form of loan asset sale occurs when direct loans have been acquired through payments of guarantee claims upon default, or through sale of collateral. They may be sold subsequently to the public, usually with guarantees attached. The final form of loan asset transaction is the "tandem" plan of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Under this program, designated types of mortgages are purchased at below-market yields and then resold to the private market. In order to find willing purchasers, they have to be sold at prices sufficiently low to afford a normal return to investors. This program is proposed for termination in 1984. Table F-7 shows all loan offsets—asset sales, repayments, other capital recoveries, non-cash adjustments, and other offsets. These amounts are counted against the volume of new loans extended to derive net loan outlays. Table F-6, as shown previously, displays new direct loan disbursements and net direct loan outlays; table F-7 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 provides a four-way distribution of those loan offsets that are the difference between these two measures of direct lending. The fourway split is as follows: —Loan asset sales to the public result in a flow of cash from the public to the agency in exchange for title to direct loans. In most cases this form of transaction converts direct loans into privately held notes guaranteed by the Government. —Loan asset sales to the FFB shift title to direct loans (or CBO's) from the agency to the FFB. For an on-budget agency, this reduces the recorded budget outlays by the amount of the sale but raises the off-budget outlays of the FFB by an equal amount. For an off-budget entity, sales to the FFB reduce the recorded off-budget outlays of the selling entity and raises the off-budget outlays of the FFB by an equal amount. All loans purchased by the FFB are fully guaranteed by some other Federal agency. —Repayments, prepayments, and other capital recoveries are cash paid to the Government to reduce the loan principal and thereby reduce indebtedness. They are counted as a reduction in direct loans outstanding. —Non-cash adjustments are non-cash accounting entries to take cognizance of losses, write-offs, or other adjustments in cases in which the recorded value of the loans is greater than the amount of money collected or collectable on the loans. Table F-7. LOAN ASSETS SALES, LOAN REPAYMENTS, AND OTHER LOAN OFFSETS (In millions of dollars) Actual 1982 Agency or program Agriculture: Public Law 480. Commodity Credit Corporation.. Agriculture credit insurance fund.. Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments.. non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments., non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments.. non-cash adjustments Estimates 1983 1984 187 219 220 5,334 10 5,976 1,519 6,302 3,763 5,380 4,300 5,291 3,497 -138 4,056 -116 4,358 -104 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table F-7. LOAN ASSETS SALES, LOAN REPAYMENTS, AND OTHER LOAN OFFSETS—Continued (In millions of dollars) Agency or program Rural housing insurance fund 1 Rural development insurance fund Education: Guarantees of SLMA obligations Health and Human Services.Health maintenance organization loans Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration fund Other housing programs Veterans' Administration: Direct loan revolving fund Loan guarantee revolving fund Export-Import Bank Loan asset sales to-. the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to.the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Estimates Actual 1982 1983 17 5,170 16 5,335 13 1,196 -257 1,357 -354 1,446 -339 1,535 1,191 1,644 97 -3 117 -3 132 -2 198 -217 247 -27 360 17 8 16 6 6 -2 1984 2 129 245 264 64 233 67 166 71 359 546 792 1,107 205 1,100 210 1,047 130 10 41 2 34 2 20 2 338 744 377 -5 295 -5 69 * 89 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table F-7. LOAN ASSETS SALES, LOAN REPAYMENTS, AND OTHER LOAN OFFSETS—Continued (In millions of dollars) Actual 1982 Agency or program Small Business Administration Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments 1984 1,732 89 1,996 2,289 829 351 938 391 972 419 1,570 10,843 1,453 6,941 16,109 2,081 17,264 4,377 1,806 1,397 116 870 102 603 2,133 12,102 3,376 10,843 2,849 6,941 14,334 1,514 16,226 2,951 17,367 4,981 528 565 465 441 462 21 452 528 565 465 441 462 21 452 2,133 12,630 3,376 11,408 2,849 7,406 14,775 1,514 16,688 2,972 17,819 4,981 Subtotal, on-budget agencies exclud- Loan asset sales to: the public 485 ing tandem plans.2 the FFB 12,102 Repayments and adjustments.repayments and prepayments 14,222 non-cash adjustments 285 Housing and Urban Development (GNMA): Loan asset sales to: Tandem Plan Sales—FHA/VA mortgages the public 1,649 the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments .. . 112 non-cash adjustments 1,229 Subtotal, on-budget agencies with Loan asset sales to: tandem plan. the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Estimates 1983 OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES Rural electrification and telephone revolving Loan asset sales to.the public fund. the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Subtotal, off-budget Federal entities.... Loan asset sales to: the public the FFB Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments non-cash adjustments Grand total Loan asset sales to: the public 3 the FFB 4 Repayments and adjustments: repayments and prepayments.,. non-cash adjustments 'See explanation of accounting change for the rural housing insurance fund in the following section on the Federal Financing Bank. All loans sold, except conventional tandem plan sales, are guaranteed upon sale ami 'iefiected in the guaranteed loan totals in Table F-9. The "public" includes Government-sponsored enterprises such as FNMA and FHLMC, which are among the principal purchasers of HUD and VA mortgages. 4 See Table F - 8 for detail of FFB purchases. 2 3 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A T H E FEDERAL FINANCING A-ll BANK The Federal Financing Bank began operations in May 1974 and has been a significant factor in financing Federal credit activities. The bank is administered by the Treasury Department. By law, its transactions are excluded from the budget totals. Hence, its lending transactions are not counted as budget outlays, although it is part of the Federal Government and finances its operations through borrowing by the Treasury. The FFB was designed to serve as a financial intermediary for the efficient financing of obligations issued, sold or guaranteed by Federal agencies. The FFB performs three functions, two of which generate Federal outlays that are excluded from the budget. First, most loan assets are now sold to the FFB rather than to the public. This converts the loans from outlays of the originating agencies to off-budget FFB outlays. Second, the FFB makes loans directly to borrowers whose obligations are guaranteed by a Federal agency. These guaranteed loans are in effect converted into off-budget direct loans. The FFB assures the efficient financing of these guaranteed loans and reduces borrowing costs. Third, agencies authorized to borrow from the public generally borrow from the FFB instead. Borrowing by agencies from the FFB does not result in FFB outlays just as borrowing by agencies from the Treasury does not result in Treasury outlays. The use of the proceeds from borrowing is counted as outlays of the borrowing agency. However, the agency must pay interest to the FFB on these borrowings and in turn the FFB pays interest to Treasury on its borrowing. The Treasury can finance its lending to the FFB by borrowing at lower interest rates than the agencies would have to Pay. Table F-8 lists the activities of the FFB for 1982 through 1988 by agency and account. The first set of entries lists FFB purchases of agency loan assets. The second set of entries lists FFB direct loans, i.e. disbursements of loans guaranteed by Federal agencies. The addendum lists borrowing (debt issues) by on-budget agencies and off-budget entities from the FFB. The FFB's net outlays from lending are expected to remain at the 1982 level of $14.2 billion in 1983 and decrease to $10.2 billion in 1984. A major part of the $4.0 billion decrease is due to a proposed $3.1 billion reduction in direct loans of the rural housing insurance fund (RHIF) of the Farmers Home Administration, as part of the rural housing block grant to the States. This reduction in program level reduces the amount of estimated sales of certificates of beneficial ownership by RHIF to the FFB to fund the program. In addition, outlays from asset sales by the agricultural credit insurance fund (ACIF) of the Farmers Home Administration 380-700 0 - 83 - 12 QL : 3 F-26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 are reduced by $0.9 billion due to a proposed decrease in lending levels of the ACIF. FFB outlays in 1984 are also reduced by $0.3 billion by proposed legislation that requires the certificates of beneficial ownership sold by RHIF to be treated as Federal agency debt beginning in 1984. Net outlays are projected to further decline from $9.1 billion in 1985 to $7.8 billion in 1988 due to decreases in asset sales by the rural development insurance fund (RDIF) of the Farmers Home Administration. Other decreases are in FFB loan guarantee originations by the foreign military sales credit program and programs of the Rural Electrification Administration. Table F-8. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars) Actual 1982 Agency or program Estimate 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1,034 -216 23,764 -236 Purchase of loan assets from: Overseas Private Investment Corporation: New acquisitions Net outlays - 5 Outstandings 23 Farmers Home Administration (USDA): Agricultural credit insurance fund: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Rural housing insurance fund: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings 1 Rural development insurance fund: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Rural Electrification Administration (USDA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Medical facilities guarantees (HHS): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Health Maintenance (HHS): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings 5,380 4,300 23,412 24,247 5,170 5,335 23,921 26,571 1,535 6,403 1,055 835 5,291 -104 3,994 -163 24,143 23,979 1,191 1,644 1,010 7,089 7,753 8,169 149 23,527 2,800 2,650 1,060 686 664 415 278 199 248 199 8,416 8,615 480 528 565 565 465 465 480 3,124 3,689 4,154 4,634 5,122 5,618 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 154 149 144 139 134 129 16 6 5 5 1 5 1 119 123 124 528 496 496 Organizations 17 15 133 -19 114 124 F-27 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F Table F-8. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Actual 1982 Agency or program Small business development loans(SBA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Subtotal, purchase of loan assets: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings. Direct loans (purchases of loans guaranteed by agencies): Foreign military sales credit (FAP): 2 New acquisitions Net outlays Rural Electrification Administration (USDA):2 New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Guarantees of SLMA obligations (Education): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings 1987 -10 -10 26 -10 36 11,408 7,406 5,489 1,801 843 5,439 4,697 1,009 717 501 443 57,236 61,933 36,371 37,088 37,588 38,031 3,084 2,288 4,712 16 4,163 4,436 2,848 4,187 4,436 4,436 3,495 3,436 3,265 14,284 18,471 21,965 25,401 28,667 4,645 3,260 3,260 4,591 4,707 3,958 3,926 4,436 3,260 3,260 3,939 5,345 16,282 21,627 26,217 30,924 34,882 38,808 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 340 340 340 340 340 700 700 5,000 energy 340 340 Low-rent public housing (HUD): 2 New acquisitions Net outlays 696 Outstandings Outstandings... 1986 12,630 Outstandings Net outlays -10 1985 56 Net outlays Community development (HUD): 2 New acquisitions 1984 66 11,436 Outstandings Alternative fuels and other (Energy): New acquisitions -9 Estimate 1983 1,624 591 2,216 -37 2,179 -27 -29 -31 2,152 2,122 2,091 -18 -105 247 -120 127 - 1 - 1 grants 179 225 43 119 134 117 236 370 65 65 352 Loans to territories (Interior): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Railroad programs (DOT): 2 New acquisitions * 31 64 63 63 E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 Table F-8. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Agency or program Net outlays Outstandings Federal Buildings Fund CBI's3 (GSA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Satellite leases (NASA): New acquisitions Estimate Actual 1982 1983 78 22 -13 -13 -13 -16 -16 1,052 1,074 1,061 1,047 1,035 1,019 1,003 -9 -10 -10 -11 -13 -14 12 8 522 513 146 205 Net outlays 120 175 Outstandings 758 933 Small business investment companies and other SBA:2 New acquisitions 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 503 493 37 -140 793 -90 703 482 -91 612 469 -102 510 456 -113 397 215 375 375 375 375 375 375 Net outlays 151 258 290 280 270 260 250 Outstandings 759 1,017 1,306 1,586 1,856 2,116 2,366 4,513 5,412 7,692 7,904* Seven States Energy Corporation (TVA): New acquisitions 6,258 7,217 193 181 6,790 336 116 86 151 1,258 1,451 1,632 1,749 1,835 1,986 1,986 -10 -11 -11 -10 71 71 71 61 50 39 29 13,602 15,056 14,365 14,861 15,288 15,763 15,975 8,716 9,542 9,183 8,428 7,489 7,310 6,998 39,283 48,825 58,008 66,436 73,925 81,235 88,233 26,232 26,465 21,771 20,350 17,090 16,607 21,226 Net outlays 14,155 14,239 10,192 9,145 7,990 7,752 7,759 Outstandings 96,519 110,758 Net outlays Outstandings All other: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Subtotal, direct loans (purchase of loans guaranteed by agencies): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Subtotal, all direct loans and purchases of agency loan assets: New acquisitions 25 18 94,378 103,524 111,514 119,266 127,025 ADDENDUM AGENCY BORROWING By on-budget agencies: Export-Import Bank: Net change Outstandings Tennessee Valley Authority: Net change Outstandings lf545 13,954 1,164 1,458 853 566 15,118 16,576 17,429 190 116 17,995 18,185 18,301 1,375 1,300 1,000 605 571 12,285 13,585 14,585 15,190 15,761 475 626 16,236 16,862 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Table F-8. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Agency or program Estimate Actual 1982 National Credit Union Administration-. Net change Outstandings 1983 Postal Service: Net change Outstandings Total, agency borrowing: Net change Outstandings 1986 1987 1988 29 40 40 40 40 40 40 170 210 250 290 330 370 333 26,904 Outstandings -46 -23 Outstandings 1985 130 Rural housing insurance fund: Net change By off-budget Federal entities: U.S. Railway Association: Net change 1984 192 145 -18 127 -476 -61 -150 -150 26,428 26,368 26,218 26,068 —13 11 13 14 114 125 138 152 —67 —67 933 -107 -107 -107 -107 1,221 1,154 2,087 1,980 1,873 1,766 1,659 2,858 2,391 3,746 902 1,020 461 539 27,782 30,172 60,489 61,392 62,412 62,873 63,412 *$500.000 or less. 'Net outlays for the FFB in 1984 have been adjusted to reflect the reclassification of the sales of CBO's to the FFB by the Rural Housing Insurance Fund as Federal agency debt. Due to this reclassification, net outlays of FFB in 1984 do not reflect the net change in the outlays of RHIF. The end-of-year balance of $26,572 million also is not reflected in the grand totals of outstandings for 1984 through 1988. 2 FFB activity for this account is not identical to the entries in Part 8 of the Budget, "Budget Accounts listing*', due to timing differences between recognition of FFB budget authority and commitments to guarantee loans that are financed through the FFB (shown here as FFB new acquisitions.). 3 Certificates of beneficial interest. LOAN GUARANTEES Loan guarantees are agreements in which a Government agency pledges to use Government funds, as necessary, to secure a lender against default on the part of the borrower. The loan guarantee is the Federal Government's contingent liability, which in a few programs may be less than the full face value of the loan. A guaranteed loan is the resulting loan, with a guarantee attached. Loan insurance is a type of guarantee in which a Government agency operates a program of pooled risks, pledging the use of accumulated insurance premiums to secure a lender against default on the part of a borrower. The major use of loan guarantees has been to support housing, but in recent years guarantees have increasingly been used for other purposes. Loan guarantees are designed to allocate economic resources to particular uses by providing credit at more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in the private market. In cases where the loan guarantee recipients are not sufficiently creditworthy to borrow without Federal assistance, the guarantee reallocates credit toward federally selected uses, increasing the total volume of credit E-24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1.984 channeled into these uses. This leaves a smaller supply of credit to be allocated to those potential borrowers who do not receive assistance, and increases the interest rate to these borrowers. However, the guarantee does not always change the allocation of credit. Some beneficiaries of loan guarantee programs would have been able to secure the funds privately, without Government support. For example, guaranteed mortgage credit might be used to finance, at a lower cost, a house that would have been purchased anyway; although there is a marginal interest rate at which the house would not be bought and the loan not made. In such a case, the guarantee does not alter the allocation of credit resources. It does, however, provide a subsidy to the borrower. The loan guarantee is used in widely varying programs. The guaranteed loan may be made to individuals, businesses, State and local governments, or foreign governments. The guaranteed commitment may be a loan made by a bank or other institutional lender, it may be a security sold in the capital market, or it may be a security sold to the FFB. In the case of fully guaranteed loans, the Government guarantees the repayment of all principal and interest. In the case of partially guaranteed loans, the Government guarantees only partial repayment of principal and interest. Guaranteed loans also include loans on which the Government promises to pay a share of the interest, though none of the principal. Contractual agreements, including guarantees of private leases, contracts to make subsidy payments over extended periods, and debt service grants may be used by the recipients as collateral for borrowing, but such indirect activity is not accounted for as loan guarantees. Most loan assets sold by Federal agencies have a Federal guarantee. Guaranteed loans are not reflected in budget outlays when credit is extended. Guaranteed loans generally result in budget outlays only when there is a default, requiring the Government to pay the lender's claims for losses. Losses from loan guarantee programs were traditionally small, partly because most of the loans were protected with liens on marketable property. Some of the newer loan guarantee programs, however, such as certain programs in SBA, have had greater losses. Data for guaranteed loans for 1982 through 1988, organized by agency or program, are presented in table F-9. Even though in some cases the Government guarantees less than the total amount of the loan, the table includes the full amount of the principal. This is done in order to accurately reflect Federal intervention in the credit market, since the Government guarantee influences whether the loan is made at all. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A A-ll Commitments for new guaranteed loans are agreements by the Government to guarantee loans upon the prospective borrowers' and lenders' fulfillment of specific conditions. Commitments in a given year do not always result in new guaranteed loans in that year, since conversion of a commitment to a guaranteed loan can take time and some prospective borrowers to whom commitments are made do not ever convert the commitments into borrowing. Net loans guaranteed are equal to the amount of new guaranteed loans less repayments and other adjustments. The net amount is also equal to the difference in guaranteed loans outstanding at the end and at the beginning of the year. Table F-9. GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars) Agency or program Funds Appropriated to the President: International security assistance.... Actual 1982 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net lorn guaranteed Outstandings International development assistance.. Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed Outstandings Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration Agricultural Credit: Program level Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed .. Guarantees of loan assets sold to FFB. Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans . Net loans guaranteed Outstandings Rural Housing: Program level. Guarantees of loan assets sold to FFB. Commitments New guaranteed loans 3,084 2,923 Estimate 1984 1983 1986 1987 2,268 4,163 3,538 2,828 4,436 4,869 4,167 4,436 4,286 11,693 14,521 3,495 3,435 18,688 22,182 25,618 4,436 4,447 3,265 28,883 221 198 270 295 300 350 314 300 321 300 327 314 4,436 4,425 163 252 293 381 307 307 1,128 1,380 1,673 2,054 2,361 2,668 57 77 -187 131 117 -32 106 121 -48 106 106 106 106 106 106 1,132 5,380 5,380 1,100 4,300 4,300 1,052 5,290 5,290 -105 -163 -215 —237 23,412 24,247 24,142 23,979 23,764 23,527 17 4 16 13 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 1,055 835 * Net loans guaranteed -272 -70 Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans 1,068 5,170 5,187 998 5,335 5,351 Net loans guaranteed. , . 1985 2,800 2,650 861 1,913 3,994 3,994 100 396 1,098 0 13 1,494 0 0 O 0 -1,075 838 1,034 1,034 -241 1,253 0 0 0 -33 805 149 149 -231 1,022 0 0 0 23,921 26,571 0 O 0 0 0 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 139 424 -11 3,387 1,535 1,535 1,060 6,403 300 537 -61 3,326 1,191 1,191 686 7,089 0 240 —275 3,051 1,644 1,644 664 7,753 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -456 2,595 1,010 1,010 415 8,168 -609 1,986 278 278 248 8,416 -799 1,187 199 199 199 8,615 -1,122 65 428 428 428 9,043 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 1,551 1,625 645 2,650 4,800 4,815 3,389 6,038 3,000 3,000 -412 5,626 3,000 3,000 -126 5,500 3,000 3,000 -500 5,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 5,000 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 5,112 4,195 4,053 17,001 528 528 528 3,124 4,745 5,453 5,444 22,445 565 565 565 3,689 3,360 4,710 4,690 27,135 465 465 465 4,154 3,360 4,836 4,341 31,476 480 480 480 4,634 3,360 4,106 3,959 35,435 488 488 488 5,122 3,360 4,088 3,925 39,360 496 496 496 5,618 3,360 4,612 3,925 43,285 506 506 506 6,124 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings 14 14 — 70 632 -82 550 -80 470 -80 390 -80 310 -60 250 -80 170 Outstandings Rural Development: Program level.... Guarantees of loan assets sold to FFB Commodity Credit Corporation export credit. Rural Electrification Administration Program level Guarantees of loan assets sold to FFB Commerce: Economic development assistance, Table F-9. GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Actual 1982 Agency or program National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Education activities. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Energy.. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Defense: military.. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. 27 27 — 18 Net loans guaranteed... 25 25 15 -11 -12 -11 — 11 177 165 154 143 6,895 6,580 6,778 6,593 7,391 7,198 7,858 7,656 8,354 8,143 8,692 8,477 5,685 2,900 2,300 1,700 1,600 27,700 30,600 32,900 34,600 36,200 37,700 2,040 153 54 54 172 272 272 20 2,156 2,210 2,482 17 20 15 2,499 2,514 20 15 2 2 4 4 6 5 3 2 6 12 17 20 254 246 187 181 126 185 185 151 181 181 145 175 175 137 782 25 217 217 6 5 1,500 2,529 3 178 134 1,542 1,676 1,802 1,953 2,098 2,235 Commitments New guaranteed loans.. 13,284 26,862. 14,637 28,503 14,709 29,500 16,493 31,661 18,146 31,432 18,474 30,102 Outstandings 20,770 22,989 24,867 26,528 27,959 28,062 Outstandings Housing and Urban Development: Subsidized low-rent public housing.. 1987 1986 189 Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans.. 1985 174 Net loans guaranteed... Health and Human Services: Health programs Estimate 1984 1983 Net loans guaranteed... 3,247 2,219 1,878 1,661 1,432 103 Federal Housing Administration.. Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 18,576 12,733 6,807 142,252 45,900 39,673 29,169 171,422 39,800 36,489 26,325 197,747 39,800 36,378 25,266 223,013 39,800 36,398 24,440 247,453 39,800 36,412 23,448 270,901 39,800 36,425 22,599 293,500 GNMA: Mortgage-backed securities- Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings 36,382 13,515 10,901 115,537 68,250 35,240 28,063 143,600 58,650 39,100 30,900 174,500 58,650 39,100 22,833 197,333 58,650 39,100 29,603 226,936 58,650 39,100 26,885 253,821 58,650 39,100 25,568 279,389 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings 28 64 24 143 16 16 2 145 19 19 13 158 30 30 6 164 31 31 6 170 33 33 6 176 34 34 6 182 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 637 1,050 609 7,176 600 400 125 7,301 600 400 125 7,426 600 400 125 7,551 600 400 125 7,676 600 400 125 7,801 600 400 125 7,926 Commitment New quaranteed loans Net change Outstandings 62 243 169 2,996 128 131 -81 2,915 15 15 -94 2,821 15 15 -122 2,699 0 0 0 0 -213 2,486 0 0 —87 2,399 -87 2,312 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings 600 600 507 1,444 -156 1,288 -154 1,134 -140 994 -133 861 -137 724 -122 602 Interior .. Transportation: Federal ship financing fund.. Other transportation programs.. Treasury: Guarantees of New York City notes.. Table F - 9 . GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Actual 1982 Agency or program Chrysler Corporation loan guarantee program Biomass energy development.. NASA: Long term satellite leases. Veterans Administration (housing) Export-Import Bank.. National Credit Union Administration.. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings 1,200 Estimate 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 686 686 686 686 686 758 205 205 175 933 37 37 -140 793 -90 703 -91 612 -102 510 5,983 5,542 5,171 108,784 18,648 16,995 17,075 125,858 19,875 18,641 18,314 144,172 20,355 20,320 18,759 162,931 20,994 20,996 19,391 182,322 21,311 Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings 5,832 2,921 -914 6,069 8,000 4,670 490 6,559 10,000 5,560 510 7,069 10,000 6,020 320 7,389 10,000 6,230 190 7,579 10,000 Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings 34 34 30 30 -5 100 28 26 28 -3 98 26 24 24 -10 82 22 22 Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net change Outstandings 1,200 686 686 146 146 120 -12 106 - 6 92 21,260 19,736 202,058 6,400 130 7,709 -14 68 Small Business Administration: Business loan guarantees.... Disaster Loan fund Pollution control bond guarantees. Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies and programs. Subtotal, guaranteed loans (gross) Less secondary guaranteed loans: 1 GNMA guarantees of FHA/VA/FmHA pools. Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed.. Outstandings 2,019 2,727 -30 9,947 2,650 2,800 -249 9,698 2,650 2,360 -390 9,308 Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed.. Outstandings 6 6 3 11 —3 8 -3 5 -2 Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed.. Outstandings.... 50 50 50 306 150 150 150 456 Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 4,513 4,513 336 1,258 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 2,300 1,980 -585 8,723 1,000 860 -1,335 4,893 1,700 1,460 -1,050 7,673 1,000 860 -1,445 6,228 3 -1 2 2 150 150 150 606 150 150 150 756 150 150 150 906 150 150 150 1,056 150 150 150 1,206 5,412 5,412 193 1,451 6,258 6,258 181 1,632 6,790 6,790 116 1,749 7,217 7,217 86 1,835 7,692 7,692 151 1,986 7,904 7,904 204 115 22 1,444 229 159 90 1,535 182 99 1,634 -57 1,576 -145 1,431 -164 1,267 -164 1,103 Commitments New guaranteed loans, Net loans guaranteed. Outstandings 118,325 102,056 45,671 547,327 197,882 168,142 97,454 644,781 179,155 167,087 89,875 708,085 179,956 168,748 79,640 787,725 178,875 165,524 81,259 868,984 178,675 184,139 163,905 169,356 74,768 77,251 946,235 1,021,002 Commitments New guaranteed loans. Net loans guaranteed., Outstandings 36,382 13,515 10,901 115,537 68,250 35,240 28,063 143,600 58,650 39,100 30,900 174,500 58,650 39,100 22,833 197,333 58,650 39,100 29,603 226,936 58,650 39,100 26,885 253,812 -2 * 1,986 58,650 39,100 25,568 279,389 Table F - 9 . GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Actual 1982 Agency or program Subtotal, guaranteed loans (net) Less guaranteed loans held as direct loans: 2 By budget agency (GNMA) By off-budget Federal Financing B a n k 3 Total, primary guaranteed loans Memorandum: Callable capital contributions to international financial organizations 5 I CO oo Estimate 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 81,943 88,541 34,770 431,789 129,632 132,902 69,392 501,181 120,505 127,987 58,975 533,585 121,306 129,648 56,807 590,392 120,225 126,424 51,656 642,048 120,025 124,805 50,366 692,414 125,489 130,256 49,200 741,613 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed , Outstandings 1,985 2,731 -241 4,067 501 2,151 -626 3,428 2,035 -68 3,360 -1,168 2,192 -934 1,258 -43 1,215 -41 1,174 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed Outstandings 26,232 26,465 21,771 20,350 17,090 16,607 21,226 14,155 96,519 14,239 110,758 10,192 94,378 9,145 103,524 7,990 111,514 7,752 119,266 7,759 127,025 Commitments New guaranteed loans , . Net loans guaranteed Outstandings 53,726 85,810 20,856 331,204 102,667 130,751 55,779 386,995 98,734 125,952 48,851 435,847 100,957 129,648 48,830 484,676 103,135 126,424 44,599 529,276 103,419 124,805 42,657 571,933 104,262 130,256 41,481 613,414 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed . Outstandings 2,340 2,340 2,340 16,079 2,415 2,415 2,415 18,494 2,863 2,863 2,863 21,356 2,863 2,863 2,863 24,219 2,863 2,863 2,863 27,082 2,863 2,863 2,863 29,944 2,863 2,863 2,863 32,807 Commitments New guaranteed loans Net loans guaranteed Outstandings H E M to CJ O O W H ^ O W CO O > t- 1 w > w CO oo ADDENDUM Guaranteed loans held as direct loans by Government sponsored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Outstandings Federal home loan banks.. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Farm Credit Administration. Student Loan Marketing Association., Total Enterprise holdings.. Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings 245 245 -1,025 38,767 813 813 -671 38,096 -1 -2 85 - 8 1,030 751 751 -1,156 36,940 82 -10 1,020 -11 1,009 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 116 116 (4) Commitments New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... Outstandings 2,051 2,051 1,684 1,714 2,181 2,181 1,833 3,547 2,154 2,154 (4) (4) 4,428 Commitments 2,342 2,994 New guaranteed loans.. Net loans guaranteed... 2,342 696 41,712 Outstandings.. (4) (4) (4) 116 (4) 46 (4) (4) (4) Commitments New guaranteed loans.. New loans guaranteed.. Outstandings 46 46 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,905 (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,994 1,150 2,905 -288 (4) (4) (4) (4) 42,863 42,575 (4) (4) (4) (4) 881 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 'Secondary guarantees by the Export-Import Bank of the debt of the Private Export Finance Corporation have not been estimated and are excluded from the table. guaranteed loans are acquired by a budget account, they become direct loans and are counted as such in Table F-6. They are therefore deducted from totals in this table. 3 Net outlays for the FFB in 1984 have been adjusted to reflect the reclassification as Federal agencv debt of the sales of CBO's to the FFB bv the Rural Housing Insurance Fund. Due to this reclassification, net outlays of FFB in 1984 do not reflect the net change in the outlays of RHIF; and the end-of-year balance of $26,572 million also is not reflected in the grand totals of outstandings for 1984 through 1988. 4 Not estimated. 'Callable capital subscriptions by the United States and other member countries provide backing for borrowings in U.S. and overseas capital markets. These subscriptions would be called only to meet the obligations of the Bank when other resources were exhausted. To date, there has never been a need to call upon these resources. 8 When GA ^ M O > r > >r Ki CZ2 F - 50 T H E BUDGET FOR F I S C A L Y E A R 1984 The addition of loan guarantees for each program yields a total termed "guaranteed loans (gross)" in the table. The amount includes some double counting. Elimination of the double counting requires two adjustments. The first adjustment deducts loans previously guaranteed, i.e. secondary guaranteed loans. They occur, for example, in the case of the GNMA mortgage-backed securities program, which guarantees securities that are backed by pools of federally guaranteed or insured loans held by the seller. This deduction yields a total termed "guaranteed loans (net)." The second adjustment deducts guarantees of loans that are also direct loans by the Government—by either on- or off-budget accounts. The total after these two deductions is termed "primary guaranteed loans." An addendum to the table shows guaranteed loans purchased by Government-sponsored enterprises. Net loans guaranteed are expected to increase significantly between 1982 and 1984, from $20.9 billion in 1982 to $48.9 billion in 1984. This increase is due primarily to improved economic conditions reflected in lower interest rates. In 1982, there was a significant decrease in net loans guaranteed from previous levels of $32 billion in 1980 and $28 billion in 1981. This reduction in loan activity was due primarily to the recession and its aftermath. Although affecting all Government guaranteed loan activity, the housing programs were especially sensitive to the high interest rates reflected in the 29% decrease in activity between 1981 and 1982. As the housing industry recovers from its depressed 1982 level, a surge in activity is expected in 1983 and 1984 with an estimated increase between 1982 and 1984 in net guaranteed loans of $20 billion in the FHA mortgage insurance program and $13 billion in the Veterans' Administration mortgage insurance program. Major increases in Export-Import Bank guaranteed loans are due to an expanding market in exports and a reluctance by private lenders to increase their international loan portfolio as well as an expanded guaranteed loan program for export trading companies scheduled to begin in 1983. Decreases in REA reflect lower demand in the electric market, reducing the need for assistance to REA borrowers. FUNCTIONAL AREAS SUPPORTED BY FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE New direct loan disbursements and new loans guaranteed by function are shown in table F-10. The largest Federal credit activity occurs in commerce and housing credit, international affairs, and veterans benefits. These three functions are expected to comprise 63% of new obligations and commitments in 1984. Part 5 of the Budget discusses Federal credit activities by function together with Federal outlays. SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F - 55 Part 5 of the Budget also presents new direct loan obligations and new commitments for guaranteed loans as well as net change and outstandings by function. Table F-10 supplements the Part 5 credit tables by presenting the volume of new direct loans disbursed and new loans guaranteed by function. 380-700 0 - 83 - 13 QL : 3 Table F - 1 0 . NEW DIRECT LOAN DISBURSEMENTS AND NEW GUARANTEED LOANS BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Actual 1982 Function Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 25 International affairs ( 1 5 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans General science, space and technology ( 2 5 0 ) National defense ( 0 5 0 ) Estimate 1984 1983 1985 1986 1988 1987 2 4 6 5 3 3 7,890 6,042 9,585 8,503 10,631 10,779 10,581 10,606 10,570 10,955 10,268 11,161 10,287 11,209 Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 146 146 205 205 37 37 Energy \( 2t l7v0/) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 9,825 11,276 10,680 12,170 10,131 11,705 10,540 12,126 10,875 11,831 11,322 12,296 11,684 12,536 Natural resources and environment ( 3 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 30 33 40 33 30 7 2 Agriculture ( 3 5 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 6,097 7,082 8,467 9,232 1,372 8,412 1,449 7,100 7,316 4,140 8,566 3,255 7 7,424 Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 1,253 18,018 73 45,863 5,568 36,992 2,644 38,534 2,194 38,032 2,048 37,444 1,833 37,457 Transportation ( 4 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 151 1,293 201 531 109 415 99 415 55 400 55 400 55 400 Community and regional development ( 4 5 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans -199 2,104 102 1,912 -1,160 2,090 -501 1,040 677 309 756 232 521 462 Education, training, employment and social services ( 5 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursements Guaranteed loans 1,322 6,580 691 6,593 654 7,198 498 7,656 574 8,143 649 8,477 749 8,860 UMV,o/ Commerce and housing credit ( 3 7 0 ) 1 Health ( 5 5 0 ) Direct loan disbursementsGuaranteed loans 24 217 18 242 9 181 8 185 9 181 4 175 4 175 Income security ( 6 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursements. Guaranteed loans 906 26,862 1,005 28,503 1,002 29,500 752 31,661 503 31,432 253 30,102 103 30,000 Veterans benefits and services ( 7 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursementsGuaranteed loans 874 5,542 849 16,995 885 18,641 902 20,320 923 20,996 905 21,260 920 21,730 General government ( 8 0 0 ) Direct loan disbursementsGuaranteed loans 12 48 General purpose fiscal assistance ( 8 5 0 ) . . Direct loan disbursementsGuaranteed loans 285 600 295 115 Direct loan disbursementsGuaranteed loans 28,640 85,810 32,205 130,751 29,395 125,954 Total new loans in the credit budget.. ui ^ M O > 27,007 129,649 33,724 129,648 34,833 124,805 26,165 130,256 1 New guaranteed loans for this function have been adjusted for guaranteed loans held as direct loans by GNMA. When guaranteed loans are acquired by a budget account, they become direct loans, and are counted as such in this table. The deduction for GNMA eliminates overlap with direct loans. r > > r>< m w I CO F - 50 T H E BUDGET FOR F I S C A L Y E A R 1984 GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES Government-sponsored enterprises have been established and chartered by the Federal Government to perform specialized credit functions. They are financial intermediaries, designed to facilitate the financing of selected kinds of economic activity by serving as reserve facilities or performing secondary market functions. They are all privately owned and are independent of Federal control to a substantial degree. Since they are privately owned, their activities are not included in the budget totals. They are all subject, however, to some form of Federal supervision, and by law or by tradition they consult with the Treasury Department in planning the marketing of their debt. Government-sponsored enterprises include the Student Loan Marketing Association (SLMA), the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), three components of the Farm Credit System, (Banks for cooperatives, Federal intermediate credit banks, and Federal land banks) and the Federal Home Loan Bank system (FHLBS) which includes the Federal Home Loan Banks and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC). Part 6 of the Budget discusses Government-sponsored enterprises. Government sponsorship has provided these enterprises with characteristics that differentiate them in credit markets from completely private institutions. They have been given special preferences and certain tax exemptions, and their securities may be offered as investments of federally regulated institutions. These advantages give their security obligations a preferred position in the securities markets, enabling them to borrow at rates only slightly higher than those of the Treasury. Funds lent by Government-sponsored enterprises are generally obtained from private bond markets. The sole exception, SLMA, borrowed exclusively from the FFB from the inception of the FFB until 1982. It now raises all its additional funds in private markets. Sale of capital stock and retained earnings provide only a very small portion of the resources that these enterprises used for lending. The pattern of borrowing and lending varies widely over time. For example, some enterprises, such as FNMA, were created to establish secondary markets, thereby increasing liquidity in mortgage markets. Others, such as the Federal home loan banks, are facilities advancing funds to member institutions, in this case savings and loan associations.8 These enterprises provide liquidity to primary lenders in times of tight monetary conditions, by either purchasing loans from the primary lenders or by making advances 8 The program of GNMA (a budget entity in HUD) to guarantee mortgage-backed securities achieves a similar purpose of financial intermediation. GNMA guarantees securities issued against privately held pools of federally guaranteed or insured mortgages. The Federal Reserve Board flow-of-funds data include this GNMA program within the definition of Government-sponsored enterprises, but that is not done here because GNMA is part of the Federal Government. GNMA data for this activity appear as entries in Table F-9, Guaranteed Loans. SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F - 55 to the primary lenders. These loans and advances are then paid back as monetary and financial conditions improve. In recent years, this former group of enterprises, such as Federal home loan banks, has expanded its role by seeking to draw new funds into mortgage markets at all times. By borrowing additional funds themselves, they can provide more funds to the primary mortgage lending institutions. Table F - l l shows the lending and borrowing of Governmentsponsored enterprises for 1982 through 1984. Total gross lending and borrowing are adjusted to avoid the double counting that arises from loans between enterprises and between enterprises and the Federal Government. The deductions in the table remove this double counting. Lending by Government-sponsored enterprises has been growing rapidly in recent years. This trend will continue in 1983 and 1984, according to the plans of FHLMC and FNMA. Both enterprises are greatly expanding their new programs of conventional mortgagebacked securities beginning in 1982. The new securities are packaged by mortgage lenders and guaranteed by FHLMC and FNMA in a way that is similar to the GNMA program. FHLMC deals primarily in conventional mortgages. In contrast, historically, FNMA purchased mainly F H A / V A mortgages for its portfolio. However, with the advent of FNMA's conventional mortgage-backed securities program in late 1981, FNMA has shifted its primary business away from F H A / V A mortgages to conventional mortgages. This leaves GNMA as the major secondary market outlet for F H A / V A mortgages. Net lending by the FHLB's is expected to fall sharply during 1983 and rise only slightly during 1984. This decrease in 1983 is due to anticipated high repayments. The gross level of 1983 advances by FHLB's are also expected to grow. The activity of the other Government-sponsored enterprises is expected to remain relatively stable during 1983 and 1984. The economic assumptions on which the estimates in table F - l l rest are not necessarily the same as the Administration's economic forecast, which is used for the budget. Special Analyis E discusses the borrowing of Government-sponsored enterprises in detail. F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 Table F - l l . CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (In millions of dollars) Enterprise Actual 1982 Estimate 1983 LENDING (Funds Advanced) Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 2,066 2,066 1,689 6,019 2,294 2,294 1,928 7,947 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 14,644 10,464 9,159 68,841 12,467 14,730 11,791 80,632 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 13,300 8,200 8,100 19,000 17,000 16,800 24,900 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 23,951 23,951 -337 9,092 29,367 29,367 1,394 10,486 Federal intermediate credit banks.. Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 18,619 18,619 -114 21,775 21,059 21,059 2,305 24,080 Federal land banks- Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 8,976 8,976 6,053 50,506 9,486 9,486 6,043 56,549 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 45,538 45,538 2,411 70,717 41,138 41,138 -2,943 67,774 -244 5,166 1,000 1,000 579 5,745 Student Loan Marketing Association Federal National Mortgage Association: Corporation accounts Mortgage-backed securities.. Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives.... Federal Home Loan Bank system: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation: Obligations Corporation accounts New transactions. Net change Outstandings Participation certificate pools : Subtotal, lending (gross). Less loans between sponsored enterprises.Federal home loan banks to FHLMC Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 8,100 26,995 17,834 17,227 35,146 21,000 20,700 18,261 53,407 Obligations 154,109 156,811 New transactions. Net change 135,648 43,944 156,774 56,158 Outstandings.. 275,361 331,519 -882 2,990 -500 2,490 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings F - 55 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F Table F - l l . CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Enterprise Actual 1982 Less secondary funds advanced from Federal sources: SLMA from FFB 2 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings TVA to FNMA Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings Less guaranteed loans held as direct loans by: Obligations Federal National Mortgage Association New transactions. Net change Outstandings Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 700 5,000 80 Estimate 1983 5,000 80 80 245 245 -1,025 38,767 813 813 -671 38,096 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings -1 84 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 1,030 -10 1,020 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 46 46 46 116 116 Obligations New transactions. Net change Outstandings 2,051 2,051 1,684 1,714 2,181 2,181 1,833 3,547 Obligations 151,687 153,817 New transactions. Net change 133,226 43,350 153,780 55,508 Outstandings.. 225,579 281,086 Student Loan Marketing Association Net change Outstandings.. 2,325 6,893 1,404 8,297 Federal National Mortgage Association 3 . Net change Outstandings.. 19,251 75,938 27,813 103,752 Net change Outstandings.. -423 8,699 1,252 9,951 Federal intermediate credit banks Net change Outstandings.. -258 21,023 1,991 23,014 Federal land banks Net change Outstandings.. 5,427 46,503 5,181 51,684 Net change Outstandings.. 3,216 60,844 -2,197 58,647 Farm Credit Administration Student Loan Marketing Association 2 Total credit advanced - 8 BORROWING (Funds Raised) Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives Federal Home Loan Bank system: Federal home loan banks F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 Table F - l l . CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Enterprise Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Subtotal, borrowing (gross) Actual 1982 Net change. Outstandings.. Net change Outstandings.. Less borrowing from other sponsored enter- Net change prises. Outstandings.. Less borrowing from Federal sources: Net change SLMA from FFB 2 Outstandings.. 17,430 40,744 Estimate 1983 17,836 58,610 46,968 53,280 260,674 313,955 -882 -500 3,681 3,181 700 5,000 5,000 Net change Outstandings.. 80 80 Total borrowing from the public and Net change Government. Outstandings.. Less investments in Federal securities.Investments in Federal securities Net change Outstandings.. Less borrowings for guaranteed loans held as direct loans by: Net change Federal National Mortgage Association Outstandings.. 47,070 53,780 251,913 305,694 2,594 4,547 -447 4,100 -1,025 38,767 —671 38,096 -1 -1 FNMA from TVA.. Federal home loan banks Net change Outstandings.. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Net change Outstandings.. 1,030 1,020 Farm Credit Administration Net change Outstandings.. 46 116 116 Net change Outstandings.. 1,625 1,893 1,404 3,297 43,837 53,505 205,476 258,980 Student Loan Marketing Total credit raised Association : Net change Outstandings.. 85 84 -10 ^11 new transactions are loans purchased from FHLMC corporation accounts. 2 Until recently, all SLMA lending has been financed through the FFB, and therefore has been counted above (table F-6) as direct loans. All SLMA loans are student loans guaranteed by the Federal Government. They have, therefore been counted above (table F-9) as guaranteed loans. The first deduction eliminates the overlap of this table with the direct loan table. The second deduction removes the non-FFB financed remainder of SLMA, to eliminate overlap with the guaranteed loan table. 3 Loans purchased at discount are recorded at their acquisition cost. SUMMARY OF CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED UNDER FEDERAL AUSPICES The credit advanced and raised under Federal auspices is summarized in table F-12. Credit advanced by direct and guaranteed loan programs reached $44 billion in 1982. This lending level is estimated to increase to $75 billion in 1983, and fall to $59 billion in 1984. Loans by Government-sponsored enterprises will increase by $12 billion in 1983, increasing slightly in 1984. Outstanding F - 55 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F credit advances to the public under Federal auspices are expected to total $984 billion by the end of 1984. Net credit raised under Federal auspices totaled $87.6 billion in 1982, and is expected to reach to $130.9 billion in 1983, and to decrease to $115.2 billion in 1984. Table F - 1 2 . SUMMARY OF CREDIT ADVANCED AND CREDIT RAISED UNDER FEDERAL AUSPICES (In billions of dollars) Actual 1982 Estimate 1983 LENDING (Credit advanced) Direct loans: On-budget agencies (from table F - 6 ) Net change.... Outstanding- 9.1 100.2 5.2 105.4 Net c h a n g e Outstanding... 14.3 107.6 122.0 Net change.... Outstanding- 20.9 331.2 55.8 387.0 Total Federal Government credit advanced ... Net change. Outstanding 44.3 539.0 75.4 614.4 Loans by Government-sponsored enterprises (from Table. Net c h a n g e F-ll). Outstanding... 43.4 55.5 Off-budget entities (from table F - 6 ) . Primary guaranteed loans (from table F - 9 ) 14.4 225.6 281.1 Net change. 87.6 130.9 Outstanding 764.6 895.5 Net change.... Outstanding... 135.0 929.4 215.0 1,144.4 loans Net change.... 20.9 55.8 Outstanding- 331.2 387.0 Net change. Outstanding 155.9 Total, credit advanced to the public under Federal auspices. BORROWING (Credit raised) Federal borrowing from the public Guaranteed above). borrowing (same as guaranteed Total Federal Government credit raised Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises (from Net change.... Table F - l l ) . Outstanding... Total, credit raised from the public under Net change. Federal auspices. Outstanding 270.8 1,260.6 1,531.4 43.8 53.5 205.5 259.0 199.7 324.3 1,466.1 1,790.4 F - 50 T H E BUDGET FOR F I S C A L Y E A R 1984 T A X - E X E M P T CREDIT Since the adoption of the Federal income tax in 1913, interest on State and local government obligations generally has been exempt from Federal income tax. 9 The resulting subsidy to borrowers has normally been a saving of 25 to 35 percent of the taxable interest rate on long-term obligations. The tax exemption reallocates credit resources to the assisted borrowers, just as do Federal direct loans and loan guarantees. Borrowers aided by tax exemption gain a position of preferred access to credit resources over competing taxable borrowers, just as do borrowers with other forms of Federal credit assistance, although in a different form. During the first half century of income tax, tax exemption was confined mainly to State and local government borrowing for public purposes. During the 1960's, however, tax-exempt financing was increasingly made available for certain private uses. State or local governments typically establish authorities that function as financial institutions in providing tax-exempt financing to private borrowers. The authorities transfer their exempt status to the private borrowers' debt obligation, or lend the proceeds of the issue to the borrower. The State or local government typically is not responsible for the payment of interest and principal in the event of default. The 1968 and 1969 tax acts made bonds issued for use by a private trade or business taxable, but a number of exceptions were permitted that have allowed major growth of tax-exempt financing for some private users. Table F-13 shows that the sale of tax-exempt bonds used for private purposes has increased greatly in recent years. Tax-exempt bonds issued for five private activities—owner-occupied and rental housing, private non-profit hospitals, student loans, pollution control facilities, and businesses financed with "small-issue" industrial development bonds (IDB's)—will reach an estimated $42.6 billion of new obligations in calendar year 1984. These private purpose bonds will account for 43% of total new long-term tax-exempt issues, compared with only 24% of total long-term issues just eight years earlier. State and local government debt and private purpose bonds that could not otherwise be identified or classified are included in the total of other tax-exempt bonds. Refunding bonds typically are used to refinance public projects under different terms than the original bonds, often with lower interest rates. In calendar year 1982, estimated total new tax-exempt issues increased by $32.1 billion above 1981 to $87.2 billion. Almost all of this growth occurred in housing bonds and State and local government debt issues. Lower mortgage interest rates partly explain the growth in single and multiple family housing bonds. However, the authority to use tax-exempt bonds for single family housing con9 Tax exemption is a tax expenditure, the subject of Special Analysis G, "Tax Expenditures." It includes a discussion of revenue losses attributable to special provisions of the tax code, including specific types of taxexempt bonds. SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F - 55 struction is expected to expire at the end of 1983. As interest rates declined in 1982, projects typically financed with tax-exempt bonds became more feasible. With the expectation that interest rates will continue to fall through 1984, State and local authorities are likely to issue more bonds to finance new public facilities and projects that were postponed earlier when interest rates were very high. The significant growth of private purpose bonds has contributed to a reduction in the relative advantage of tax-exempt financing. While long-term tax-exempt bonds have traditionally had a cost advantage of between 25 and 35 percent over taxable bonds, the cost advantage currently is between 10 and 20 percent on securities with 20-year maturities. Tax-exempt yields must increase relative to the yields on alternative investments in order to attract additional funds. The reduction in the cost advantage increases the financing costs for all State and local government borrowing, including the costs for traditional public projects such as roads, sewers, and schools. In recent years, Congress has placed further restrictions on the use of tax-exempt financing by private entities. The Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1980 imposed a number of restrictions on the use of tax-exempt credit for owner-occupied housing, including the elimination of tax exemption for such bonds after 1983 as noted above.10 Last year the Administration successfully proposed legislation to reduce the use of private purpose tax-exempt bonds through several changes in the tax code. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 required that most private purpose bonds be approved by an elected public official after a public hearing, and that assets of certain exempt private activities financed with taxexempt bonds after 1982 be depreciated using the straight-line method rather than accelerated depreciation. The 1982 tax act also eliminated the tax exemption for "small-issue" IDB's after 1986. Table F-13 presents estimates of the annual tax revenue lost to the Treasury from all tax-exempt bonds issued each year, the present value of the tax loss from these bonds, and the value of the subsidy received by the borrower. The annual tax loss measures the amount of reduction in receipts resulting from the issuance of tax-exempt rather than taxable debt in that year. Further tax losses occur over the entire life of the tax-exempt security. Therefore, the present value of the total tax loss is much larger than the annual tax loss. The cost to the Treasury in lost tax revenue exceeds the financial benefits to the borrower, because the lender also receives a subsidy. Table F-13 also shows separately the annual tax revenue loss and present value of the tax loss from private purpose tax-exempt bonds. 10 However, most general obligation bonds to finance veterans' owner-occupied housing and bonds to finance multi-family rental housing remain tax exempt. F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 While direct and guaranteed loan programs are included in the credit budget, tax-exempt credit is not. Although tax-exempt financing affects resource allocation and has efficiency costs similar to other credit assistance, its current statutory structure gives it entitlement status and its use is unilaterally elected by the borrower. Effective control can only be achieved through legislated changes to the tax code. Table F - 1 3 . TAX EXEMPT FINANCING: PRESENT VALUE OF TAX SUBSIDIES TO NEW ISSUES—(in billions of dollars) Calendar years1 Estimated Actual Total new issues, long-term tax exempts Private purpose tax-exempts Housing bonds Single-family mortgage revenue bonds Multi-family industrial development bonds.. Veterans general obligation bonds Private hospitals Student loans Pollution control Small-issue industrial development bonds Refundings Other tax-exempt issues 2 Subsidy estimates (new issues o n l y ) : 3 All new issues: Annual tax loss, all new issues Present value, tax loss Present value, borrower benefit Private purpose issues only: Annual tax loss Present value, tax loss 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 23.6 23.9 24.2 30.5 4.9 1.4 35.0 8.3 2.7 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.9 46.9 13.2 4.5 49.1 15.9 7.1 3.4 2.5 1.2 2.2 0.3 48.4 25.0 7.8 2.7 1.6 2.4 0.6 2.5 7.4 1.9 21.5 54.5 28.6 14.0 10.5 2.2 1.3 2.8 0.5 2.5 8.8 1.6 24.3 55.1 25.1 5.6 3.6 87.2 41.6 15.0 10.0 4.5 0.5 1.2 28.8 1.6 5.1 13.8 4.0 41.6 95.8 45.1 17.9 11.0 6.0 0.9 6.7 2.0 5.2 13.3 5.0 45.7 ) ) ) ) ) ) 0.9 0.6 1.4 * 2.0 1.6 22.0 L2 22.7 23.6 0.7 7.1 5.1 0.7 7.3 5.7 0.9 7.8 5.9 0.6 n n H t1) 0) 5.04 7.21 160.7 176.5 4.99 7.44 175.1 191.2 5.86 8.57 188.9 207.7 0.1 2.1 1.0 2.9 0.6 3.3 0.1 3.0 2.3 9.6 24.1 2.8 3.5 9.3 23.9 12.1 1.1 0.9 3.5 1.1 3.9 11.0 6.1 f1) 0.9 24.7 1.5 3.5 23.2 1.1 10.0 11.2 1.6 14.8 12.4 16.1 14.1 1.9 16.3 15.0 2.7 19.6 16.0 3.3 21.0 13.2 4.6 32.2 23.7 4.3 33.9 24.7 0.3 2.7 0.4 3.9 0.5 4.9 1.0 8.4 1.4 10.3 1.5 9.6 2.2 15.4 2.0 16.0 5.20 5.52 8.73 279.1 291.3 7.85 11.94 341.1 356.2 10.43 14.17 370.0 389.8 8.59 12.43 422.3 446.9 6.5 0.2 1.6 1.2 1.8 MEMORANDUM AAA State and local bond yields, percent... AAA Corporate bond yields, percent Outstanding, long-term tax-exempt issuesOutstanding, all tax-exempt issues 6.42 8.83 205.2 223.8 5.66 8.43 225.0 239.5 8.02 251.3 262.9 5.92 9.63 308.2 321.1 7.50 10.81 481.0 508.0 * $50 million or less. 1 1975-81 estimates of tax-exempt volume and distribution and 1982-84 projections are by the Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis. Estimates are unavailable for private purpose tax-exempts before 1975. 2 Includes State and local government debt for public purposes and some private purpose debt that could not be identified or classified. 3Assumed: Average marginal tax rate=.42. Taxable securities of comparable quality; average maturity=18 years; discount rate=AAA corporate bond yield. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Public Securities Association; subsidy estimates and 1982-84 yields estimates by Office of Management and Budget. I Cn CO F - 50 T H E BUDGET FOR F I S C A L Y E A R 1984 INTEREST SUBSIDIES Federal credit programs provide credit to selected borrowers on more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in private credit markets. These favorable terms result in a subsidy to the borrower. The largest subsidy is usually in the form of a lower interest rate, although other subsidies, such as longer maturities, are commonly offered as well. For direct loans the subsidy arises through formulas in law setting interest rates at a fixed ceiling or tying them to fluctuations in some other rate. While risk is a crucial factor in determining private interest rates, it may be largely ignored in setting rates for Federal direct loan programs; and therefore, the rates for comparable loans in the private market will be higher. For guaranteed loans, the subsidy usually occurs because the guarantee removes all risk of default facing the lender; the lender is therefore willing to lend to the guaranteed borrower at rates less than the market rate, not charging the borrower a premium for risk. This section presents estimates of the explicit subsidies provided through lower interest rates for Federal direct loan programs and one loan guaranteed program. The total interest subsidy in any year is measured by estimating the difference between the interest payments on a federally assisted loan and those the borrower would otherwise have paid in the private market. The reduced interest rate lowers payments throughout the life of a loan. The measurement of the interest subsidy therefore requires that the series of annual interest payment reductions be converted into a single discounted present value. This capitalizes all future payments and allows comparison of the value of the federally assisted and wholly private loan through a single number. There is no generally accepted method for quantifying the present value of interest subsidies in Federal credit programs. Measurement of the total subsidy depends on an accurate assessment of what the wholly private interest rate would have been. For many Federal credit programs this private rate is impossible to determine, either because the risk of a Government-assisted loan is unknown or because comparable loans are not made in the private market. Federally assisted borrowers and projects are frequently riskier than the private market would accept under any terms. To make a rough estimate of the subsidy without complete private rate information, two simplified approaches are used. The first estimates the value of the subsidy to borrowers; the second, the cost to the Government. The first approach is intended to show the value of the subsidy to the borrower. It compares Federal credit program interest rates against private sector rates for comparable loans (see table F-14a). In order to define comparable private rates, this approach relies on SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F - 55 relating Federal credit programs to broad categories of private loan types rather than making a detailed analysis of individual program characteristics.11 For example, the subsidies on Rural Electrification Administration loans are computed by comparing the average REA interest rates against rates for recently offered shares of AAA utility bonds. The private rates are proxies for the actual private rate because they are calculated and compared at such a high level of aggregation. For some programs the rates shown here are better proxies than for others. The second approach is intended to estimate the cost of the interest subsidies to the Federal Government (see table F-14b). It applies a single interest rate to all Federal credit programs: the 10year Treasury bond rate averaged over the last 6 months. The estimates in table F-14b are less than the estimates in table F-14a because the Government can borrow more cheaply than can private lenders. Thus, the value of the subsidy to the borrower is larger than the cost of the loan to the Government. The subsidy estimates are intended to provide an estimate of the order of magnitude of interest subsidies, and to suggest the relative distribution of subsidies among the programs. Neither method is exact, and neither quantifies the total subsidy provided in Federal credit programs. The measurement of interest subsidies in these tables includes: —the effect of the Federal Government making a direct loan at an interest rate lower than a normal private borrower would have to pay on a similar loan in the private market; —the effect of the Federal Government paying part of the interest costs of a private loan. The measurement of interest subsidies does not include: —the value of the Government's assumption of risk on a direct loan or the value of a loan guarantee; —the effect of making credit available to unusually risky borrowers, under unusually risky terms (such as a higher loan to value ratio or a long maturity), or for unusually risky ventures; i.e., the effect of not charging premiums that would be adequate to cover probable losses on direct or guaranteed loans; —the effect of not charging fees or premiums that would cover the administrative costs of the program. Since the amount of interest rate reduction resulting from the Government's assumption of risk on guaranteed loans is not measured, interest subsidies are calculated only for one loan guarantee program, guaranteed student loans, where the Federal Government directly contributes all or part of the interest payments on the loan. "Private sector rates are computed from data published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 The sensitivity of interest subsidy estimates to assumptions.— Estimates of interest subsidy in tables F-14a and F-14b are highly sensitive to changes in assumptions. A single percentage point change in the assumed private sector interest rate can substantially change the present value of the interest subsidy. For instance, if the rate on a $100 million direct loan is 10% and the average private sector interest rate on loans in the same category is also 10% (assuming that the discount rate is the same as the private market interest rate), then there is no explicit interest subsidy. If, however, the private market interest rate is assumed to be 12% then the present value of the interest subsidy is $15 million; and if the interest rate is assumed to be 15% then the present value of the interest subsidy increases to $31 million. The present value will also change dramatically depending on the maturity and amortization plan. For instance, the present value of the subsidy on a 10%, $100 million loan over 30 years at a 15% discount rate is $31 million. This subsidy would be only $18 million if the maturity were 10 years. With a 30-year maturity and a 5-year grace period the subsidy would be $66 million, more than twice the subsidy of a nondeferred loan. Since the estimates are so sensitive to the assumptions they are likely to change considerably from year to year, regardless of policy changes. For example, a reduction in market interest rates will lower the subsidy even if there is no policy change. Nevertheless, the estimates of the interest subsidies in credit programs shown in these tables can be used to indicate which programs are more deeply subsidized than others, and the general magnitude of the subsidies. F - 55 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F Table F - 1 4 a . INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUES FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE (Dollar amount in millions) Obligations or commitments Average loan terms Agency and programs Percent DIRECT LOANS Funds Appropriated to the President: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit Functional development assistance Agriculture: Price support and related programs.... Agricultural credit Rural housing Farm export creditsPublic Law 4 8 0 Rural development Rural telephone b a n k Rural electric and telephone Education: Student financial assistance Student loan insurance College housing Energy: Bonneville Power Administration Health and Human Services: Health maintenance organizations,, , Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Assn Housing for elderly and handicapped.... Housing rehabilitation Low rent public housing Transportation: Highway p r o g r a m s 1 . . . Rail programs Veterans Administration: Housing programs 380-700 0 - 83 - Years 1982 1983 Market rate discount Market rate 1984 Present value of subsidy stream 1982 1984 1983 3.0 40.0 366 481 468 12.5 241 317 308 10.5 15.0 800 1,175 1,000 12.5 82 121 103 2.8 33.1 398 409 387 12.5 252 259 245 10.6 9.2 3.0 0.7 10.0 33.0 11,500 4,199 3,454 11,877 4,264 3,377 8,040 3,979 308 14.0 14.0 13.0 292 744 2,203 302 755 2,154 204 705 196 3.6 7.4 11.1 31.5 40.0 35.0 111 568 185 750 518 185 768 360 185 12.5 12.2 14.5 453 208 41 438 189 41 448 132 41 4.9 35.0 1,099 1,101 575 14.5 649 650 340 5.0 10.0 175 179 18.0 72 73 7.5 3.0 7.0 30.0 289 40 391 424 18.0 13.4 78 25 106 115 0.2 19.9 4 40 40 14.5 3 27 27 12.0 20.0 14 42 12 15.5 3 8 2 10.0 20.0 284 341 288 13.4 55 66 56 7.5 40.0 1,985 504 3 12.5 739 187 * 9.2 3.0 40.0 20.0 819 49 634 84 476 14.5 13.5 285 27 221 46 166 6.6 .3 905 1,000 1,000 13.5 10 11 11 3.5 3.4 10.0 20.2 69 43 50 102 37 10.6 14.7 3 24 2 57 1 12.0 29.0 720 691 721 13.0 50 48 50 14 QL : 3 F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 Table F - 1 4 a . INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUES FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE— Continued (Dollar amount in millions) Average loan terms Agency and programs Insurance policy loans1 District of Columbia Export-Import Bank NCUA Small Business Administration: Business loans Disaster loans Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies and programs Federal Financing Bank: Loans to the public Percent Years Grand total 1982 1983 Market rate discount 1984 Market rate Present value of subsidy stream 1982 30.0 30.0 12.0 .2 152 145 3,516 82 156 145 3,830 95 163 115 3,830 95 14.5 12.2 15.5 15.5 35 41 641 14.5 11.5 8.5 9.0 682 237 749 440 512 440 15.5 15.5 5.4 8.2 77 89 99 7.1 7.7 155 107 10.3 10.0 30,082 8.5 10.0 1984 1983 10.9 8.2 11.0 14.6 Total—Direct loan subsidies2 GUARANTEED LOANS Education: Student loan insurance 2 Obligations or commitments 36 41 6 9 9* 37 33 6 9 9* 23 32 25 59 17 59 14.5 21 25 28 106 15.7 2 6 4 27,044 23,701 14.62 4,750 4,270 3,742 63,092 60,841 48,076 12,096 11,238 7,768 6,195 6,778 7,391 1,932 2,114 2,305 69,287 67,619 55,467 14,028 13,352 10,073 18.0 * * $500 thousand or less. 'There is no specified maturity period. Forty years is used as a proxy for an indefinite maturity. 2 0nly explicit subsidies are represented; implicit subsidies arising from the Government's assumption of risks are not included. (See text) F - 55 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F Table F - 1 4 b . INTEREST SUBSIDY COSTS FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs DIRECT LOANS Funds Appropriated to the President: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit Functional development assistance Agriculture: Price support and related programs.... Agricultural credit Rural housing Farm export credits—Public Law 4 8 0 Rural development Rural telephone b a n k Rural electric and telephone Education: Student financial assistance Student loan insurance College housing Energy: Bonneville Power Administration Health and Human Services.Health maintenance organizations Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Assn Housing for elderly and handicapped.... Housing rehabilitation. Low rent public housing Transportation: Highway p r o g r a m s 1 . . . Rail programs Veterans Administration: Housing programs Percent Years Obligations or commitments 1982 1983 13% discount 1984 Annual subsidy per $100 million Present value of subsidy stream 1982 1984 1983 3.0 40.0 366 481 468 8.78 246 323 314 10.5 15.0 800 1,175 1,000 1.92 101 148 126 2.8 33.1 398 409 387 8.51 257 264 250 10.6 9.2 3.0 0.7 10.0 33.0 11,500 4,199 3,454 11,877 4,264 3,377 8,040 3,979 308 2.86 2.59 8.41 207 606 2,203 214 615 2,154 145 574 196 3.6 7.4 11.1 31.5 40.0 35.0 777 568 185 750 518 185 768 360 185 7.91 5.28 1.80 465 230 25 449 209 25 460 146 25 4.9 35.0 1,099 1,101 575 7.16 599 600 313 5.0 10.0 175 179 5.19 51 52 7.5 3.0 7.0 30.0 289 40 391 424 3.42 8.21 45 25 61 67 0.2 19.9 4 40 40 8.95 3 25 25 12.0 20.0 14 42 12 .85 1 3 1 10.0 20.0 284 341 288 2.48 50 60 51 7.5 40.0 1,985 504 5.17 786 199 * 9.2 3.0 40.0 20.0 819 49 634 84 476 3.59 7.40 225 26 174 44 131 6.6 0.2 905 1,000 1,000 4.29 9 10 10 3.5 3.4 10.0 20.2 69 43 50 102 37 3.16 7.19 7 22 3 52 1 12.0 29.0 720 691 721 .92 50 48 50 F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR F I S C A L Y E A R 1984 Table F - 1 4 b . INTEREST SUBSIDY COSTS FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE— Continued (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs Insurance policy loans1 District of Columbia Export-Import Bank NCUA Small Business Administration: Business loans Disaster loans Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies and programs Federal Financing Bank Loans to the public. „ Percent Years Obligations or commitments 13% discount 1982 1983 1984 Annual subsidy per $100 million Present value of subsidy stream 1982 1983 1984 11.0 8.2 11.0 14.6 30.0 30.0 12.0 0.2 152 145 3,516 82 156 145 3,830 95 163 115 3,830 95 1.92 4.30 1.45 -1.13 22 47 310 23 47 337 24 37 337 * * * 14.5 11.5 8.5 9.0 682 237 749 440 512 440 -1.03 1.02 -36 13 -40 24 -27 24 5.4 8.2 77 89 99 4.77 18 21 24 7.1 7.7 155 107 106 3.74 6 2 1 10.3 10.0 30,082 27,044 23,701 1.85 3,099 2,786 2,441 63,092 60,841 48,076 9,716 8,935 5,747 6,195 6,778 7,391 1,051 1,150 1,254 69,287 67,619 55,467 10,767 10,084 7,000 Total—Direct loan subsidies2 GUARANTEED LOANS Education Student loan insurance2 Grand total 8.5 10.0 3.04 * $500 thousand or less. 1 there is no specified maturity period. Forty years is used as a proxy for an indefinite maturity. 2Only explicit subsidies are represented; implicit subsidies arising from the Government's assumption of risks are not included. (See text). PROPOSED LEGISLATION The administration is seeking to reduce the amount of direct loans and loan guarantees issued by the Federal Government. Its primary method for accomplishing this goal is to reduce the appropriation bill limitations on credit programs, and in some cases to propose termination of the programs. For several programs expected to continue operation, changes in authorizing law are being sought that would reduce subsidies and Federal costs. This section outlines the legislative proposals. Legislation will also be introduced effecting the treatment of Certificates of Beneficial Ownership (CBO's) in the Rural housing insurance fund. This legislation involves removing the statutory requirement that the proceeds from CBO's be treated as a sale of an asset. With this change, CBO transactions will be treated in accordance with the recommendations of the 1967 President's Com- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F - 55 mission on Budget Concepts. Under the proposed legislation, the issuance of CBO's will be considered borrowing rather than income and the retirement of CBO's will be redemption of debt. The CBO's outstanding at the start of 1984 will be reclassified as agency debt. Also affecting RHIF is a proposal to transfer the assets, liabilities and balances from the Self-help land development fund to RHIF. Since there has been little loan activity in the land development fund, it would be more efficient to consolidate all activity in RHIF. The administration is again seeking legislation to help the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) keep abreast of recent changes in housing finance and to reflect an expanding role for private mortgage insurers. The proposed legislation would remove the current statutory ceilings on FHA-insured mortgages, allowing FHA to insure variable rate mortgages. At the same time, the FHA regulation prohibiting FHA-insured homebuyers from being charged any points will be eliminated. Points are interest charges that are paid at the time a property is purchased and are used by lenders to increase effective interest rates on FHA-insured mortgages. Currently, additional points cannot be charged to buyers directly. Buyers may pay points indirectly, however, through increased housing prices. The elimination of both the ceiling on interest rates and the prohibition of buyer paying points is intended to help mortgage markets operate more effectively and reduce artificially high housing prices. RECENTLY ENACTED LEGISLATION This section summarizes legislation enacted during the second session of the 97th Congress involving Federal credit programs. Unlike the first session of Congress, there was no single major piece of legislation dealing with a large number of credit programs. The Export Trading Companies Act of 1982 establishes a guaranteed loan program administered by the Export-Import Bank to creditors of export trading companies. These loans will be secured by the companies export account receivables or inventories of exportable goods. The guaranteed loan will be made only if the Board of Directors determines the private credit market is not providing adequate financing or if the guarantees will promote trade that would not occur otherwise. The Act specifies that the guaranteed loans should ultimately promote exports from smaller, minority businesses or agricultural concerns. The Veterans Compensation, Education, and Employment Amendments Act of 1982 initiates a user fee for veterans obtaining Veterans Administration home loans. The amount of the fee is onehalf of 1% of the total loan amount. The fee will be paid either before the loan is made or included in the loan amount. F - 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 The Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 is a major step toward deregulating and restructuring the nation's financial system. It provides the means by which depository institutions can compete effectively in the financial community in the highly competitive, less regulated environment of the future. Due to the severity of financial problems that have faced the thrift industry, the major provisions of the Act contain short-term and long-range remedies to ensure the lasting viability of this vital segment of our financial community. In particular, the Act establishes a three-year program whereby the FHLBB and the FDIC may purchase net worth certificates from troubled depository institutions in exchange for promissory notes. The certificates would be considered capital and for that reason would be included in the net worth of the affected institution. Unless an institution defaulted, there would be no monetary transaction between the FHLBB or the FDIC and the depository institutions. The Act also allows the Federal National Mortgage Association to issue preferred stock. The Student Financial Assistance Technical Amendments Act of 1982 waives the Federal Government's position with respect to other creditors in the event of bankruptcy by the Student Loan Marketing Association (SLMA). Prior to 1982, SLMA obtained funds from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). However, as part of a general Administration policy to limit Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing from the FFB, SLMA began to obtain funds through private financial markets. Before passage of this Act, the Federal Government would have equal claim with other creditors in the case of bankruptcy. Congress felt this hampered SLMA ability to raise money in private financial markets given the extensive FFB borrowing, therefore other creditors will have priority over the Federal Government in the event of bankruptcy. The Housing and Community Development Extension of Insurance Programs Act of 1982 continues the Federal Housing Administration's basic insuring authority to May 1983. Also, the Act allows the Federal Home Loan Morgage Corporation to issue preferred stock, thereby providing FHLMC parity with the Federal National Morgage Association. FNMA was granted similar authority in the Garn-St Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982. The District of Columbia Revenue Bonds for Educational Expenses Amendment of 1982 allows the District of Columbia to issue revenue bonds for the purpose of financing student loans. The possible reduction of student loans from other Federal sources prompted this piece of legislation. Whether a bond issue is actually made and particular guidelines of the program will be determined by the District of Columbia. The No Net Cost Tobacco Program Act of 1982 requires the establishment of a capital fund by farm producer associations. This SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F - 55 fund should help insure that all loans made by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) would be paid in full. Beginning in 1982, any producer benefiting from price supports must contribute to the fund to be eligible for the program. In addition, any net gain from the sale of loan tobacco will be retained by the CCC for application against any losses. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G TAX EXPENDITURES The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344) requires a listing of a "tax expenditures" in the Budget. The act defines "tax expenditures'' as "revenue losses attributable to provisions of the Federal tax laws which allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or which provide a special credit, a preferential rate of tax or a deferral of liability." The definition of tax expenditures used in this analysis is based on the distinction between the "normal" or "reference" provisions of the tax structure needed to make the tax operational, and the "special" provisions that are exceptions to the reference tax provisions. Such exceptions are designed to further other objectives, such as health care, export promotion, or employment of the handicapped. Their operation is, therefore, comparable to outlay programs, such as milk price supports and rent subsidies that also provide a subsidy to particular activities. For this reason, the expressions "tax subsidies" and "tax expenditures" are often used synonymously. Because the term "tax subsidies" is somewhat more descriptive than "tax expenditures," the former will be used in the remainder of this analysis. The reference tax provisions are those which deal with the basic structural features of the Federal income tax. These features include such concepts as the definition of income subject to tax; taxable units and their threshold levels of taxability; the relationship between the taxation of corporations and their shareholders; the tax rate schedules; the basic tax accounting rules; the treatment of international transactions; and the system of tax administration. All of these structural features must be dealt with in some manner in order to have an operational income tax. In contrast to such reference provisions, it would be possible to have a fully operational income tax that did not contain any of the special provisions that give rise to tax subsidies. While the distinction between the reference and special provisions of the Code may be clear as general concepts, there are numerous difficulties encountered when applying these concepts to obtain an actual list of tax subsidies. The inclusion of wages in the tax base is a clear example of a reference tax provision; the exclusion of fringe benefits is due to special provisions, and therefore clearly constitutes a tax subsidy. On the other hand, a less clear G-1 F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 example is provided by the capital gains provisions, which apply to a broad class of transactions and taxpayers, but are exceptions to the general rules governing taxation of income from all other sources. As explained more fully below, the capital gains provisions are considered a tax subsidy. ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONS OF T A X EXPENDITURES While the current income tax is a useful reference standard, it is not the only one that might be used. Some analysts would prefer using a "pure income tax" under which the tax base is equal to an individual's consumption plus the change in his net worth during a year. Other analysts would prefer to use income used for consumption as the reference tax base for measuring tax subsidies. In this latter view, income that is saved would not be taxed. If the current tax system is compared with a pure income tax for purposes of identifying tax expenditures, the list of tax expenditures would be quite different from the list presented in table G - l . For example, the following would be considered tax expenditures if the reference system were a pure income tax: (1) the accelerated cost recovery system (ACRS); (2) the exemption of tax on the imputed income from housing; (3) the lack of inflation indexation of capital gains, taxation of capital gains only upon realization and the 60-percent exclusion of long-term capital gains; and (4) the double taxation of corporate dividends. The first of these would be a tax expenditure because a pure income tax would allow as a deduction only the economic depreciation on an asset—i.e., the true reduction in the value of the asset. ACRS is a system designed to provide more rapid depreciation than true economic depreciation. The second of these, the exemption of the imputed income from housing, arises from the fact that owner-occupied housing provides income in kind to the owner. A house is a capital asset. The difference between a house and a corporate bond is that the return on the house is in the form of free rent whereas the return on the corporate bond is in the form of cash. Nonetheless, both assets return income and under a pure income tax, that income would be taxed in the same manner. Thus, the value of the free rental services provided by an owner-occupied home would be included in a pure income tax base. However, a deduction for mortgage interest payments (indexed for inflation) would be allowed just as there is a deduction for investment interest when one borrows money to invest in a corporate bond. If the reference tax is a pure income tax, the mortgage interest deduction would not be treated as a tax expenditure. Instead, there would be a tax expenditure based on SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 the exemption of the imputed rent from the owner-occupied home, adjusted for depreciation. The case of capital gains is quite complicated. Under a pure income tax, real accrued capital gains, i.e., accrued capital gains adjusted for a purely inflationary rise in the value of an asset, would be taxed just as any other income. Thus current law, when compared to a pure income tax, has three tax expenditures with regard to long-term capital gains. The first is that these gains are not indexed. This is a negative tax expenditure, i.e., it may cause a higher tax liability that would occur under a pure income tax. Offsetting this, however, is the 60-percent exclusion of long-term capital gains from adjusted gross income. This is the usual positive tax expenditure resulting in lower tax liability. Finally, capital gains are taxed only when realized, not as they accrue. Under a pure income tax, all income would be taxed only once to the recipient. Consequently, the double taxation of the corporation income, when compared to a pure income tax, is a negative tax expenditure. It may raise the tax liability above that which would apply under a pure income tax. If a tax on income used for consumption were used as the reference point, the list of tax expenditures is different from that which would result from a pure income tax and from that which would result from use of the normal provisions of the tax code as the reference structure. The following provisions of current law would be treated as tax expenditures if a pure consumed income tax were used as the reference point: (1) the nondeductibility of saving other than saving contributed to individual retirement accounts and Keogh plans; (2) the nontaxability of borrowing used for consumption; and (3) the nontaxability of bequests consumed by recipients. Under a consumed income tax, income that is saved would be deducted from the tax base. Consequently, except for contributions to IRA plans and pension plans, the nondeductibility of saving under current law would constitute a negative tax expenditure. Just as saving would be deducted from the tax base, borrowing would be included in the tax base to the extent it is used for consumption. If an individual borrows $1,000 in a year and uses that $1,000 to increase consumption, a tax that is based on consumption would include that $1,000 in the tax base. Current law has no such provision and thus the absence of a tax on borrowing, if a consumed income tax were used as a reference point, would constitute a positive tax expenditure. Since a consumed income tax would allow accumulations of wealth to be deductible because they are not consumption, the corresponding treatment of consumption out of wealth requires that such consumption be included in the tax base. Thus, an indi- F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 vidual who inherits wealth and consumes it over his lifetime would have to include the bequest in his tax base. For example, if a person inherited $1 million and proceeded to spend $150,000 a year and, in doing so, reduced the principal amount, all of the $150,000 a year of consumption would be taxable. Under current law, consumption of wealth does not enter the tax base. Therefore, when current law is compared with a consumed income tax, a positive tax expenditure results from exclusion of spending out of inherited wealth. While there are valid arguments in favor of identifying and measuring tax expenditures relative to a pure income tax or a consumed income tax, the existing Federal income tax is the best practical alternative available now for listing and computing the amounts of existing tax subsidies. Consequently, the remainder of this analysis is based on existing law. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN T A X SUBSIDIES AND OUTLAYS Tax subsidies often have objectives similar to government programs funded through direct appropriations. There are numerous examples of this. Direct expenditures and tax subsidies both reduce the cost of ships; direct interest' subsidies and the issuance of taxexempt bonds both result in lower financing costs for eligible issuers of mortgage bonds and businesses. Similarly, State and local governments benefit both from direct grant programs and from the ability to borrow funds at tax-exempt rates. Individuals benefit both from direct medicare payments and from the deductibility of medical expenses for income tax purposes. And individuals also benefit from social security payments as well as the exemption of these payments from income tax. This special analysis contains quantitative estimates of tax subsidies that can be used in conjunction with the consideration of direct budget outlays. Like the listing of comparable direct oulays, the listing of specific tax items implies neither approval nor disapproval of the special provisions of the tax system that authorize them. Neither does it imply that only the special provisions are worthy of analysis. Many features of the normal tax structure such as the rates, exemption levels, and basic accounting rules, have major effects upon the level and composition of economic activity and the distribution of income. Thus, it is important that both the reference tax structure and exceptions that provide tax subsidies be subject to periodic analysis and review. The Internal Revenue Code contains provisions relating to individual income, corporate income, estate and gift, excise, and employment taxes—all of which include special provisions that provide subsidies. Nevertheless, this analysis deals only with devi- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 ations from the reference structure in the taxation of individual and corporate income. DEFINING T A X SUBSIDIES For a provision to involve a tax subsidy, two conditions are necessary: —The provision must be "special" in that it applies to a narrow class of transactions or taxpayers; and —There must be a "general" provision to which the "special" provision is a clear exception. If these two conditions are satisfied, the special tax provision clearly has the characteristics of a direct outlay program—a program objective and a method of reimbursing program costs. Some examples will illustrate the application of these conditions to specific provisions of the Federal incomp tax. Under the general provisions of the income tax, interest received from any source is includable in income subject to tax. However, a special provision allows interest on obligations of State and local governments to be excluded from taxable income. The exclusion is therefore considered a tax subsidy. A second example is the allowance of deductions for homeowners' mortgage interest and property tax payments. Under the general provisions of the Code, deductions are not allowed for any expenses allocable to income that is exempt from tax. However, the income from homeownership, that is, the (imputed) gross rental value of owner-occupied housing, is exempt from tax under the reference income tax rule requiring "realization." The special provisions that allow homeowners to reduce their housing costs by deducting mortgage interest and property taxes are, therefore, considered tax subsidies. More difficult definitional issues are raised by the capital gains provisions. These provisions apply to a very broad class of transactions and taxpayers, and they constitute the basic provisions governing the taxation of gains from the sale of capital assets held more than one year. On these grounds it could be argued that the capital gains provisions do not involve a tax subsidy. However, under the capital gains provisions of the Code, income from the sale of capital assets held more than one year is taxed in a different manner than income from any other source. Because the reference provisions for taxing income without regard to source are more general than the capital gains provisions, capital gains are retained on the list of tax subsidies. A further illustration of the definition of tax subsidies is provided by the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS) provisions enacted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Any income tax requires a set of rules for determining how the cost of depreciable assets is recovered. The ACRS provisions now constitute the gener- F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 al income tax rules for that purpose. To see this, one need only ask: "If ACRS is 'special,' what is the 'general' tax accounting rule to which ACRS is an exception?" The ACRS provisions are clearly a divergence from any measure of economic income, but this is not a criterion for designating a tax subsidy. Because they set forth general rules, the ACRS provisions do not appear in table G - l . They are, nevertheless, very important provisions of the reference tax structure, both because of their sizable revenue cost as compared with prior law ($10.6 billion in 1982, $16.7 billion in 1983, and $25.6 billion in 1984) and because of their importance as investment incentives. The treatment of ACRS may be contrasted with that of the investment tax credit, which has very similar economic effects. The investment credit is considered a tax subsidy because, unlike ACRS, it does not deal with one of the basic structural elements of the income tax. Several other issues relating to the distinction between the reference structure of the income tax and tax subsidy provisions are discussed below. • Threshold income levels for tax liability.—The reference structure includes those Code provisions that determine threshold levels of income below which no tax liability is imposed upon different types and sizes of taxpaying units. These levels have been affected by legislated changes in the dollar amounts allowed for personal exemptions and the standard deduction in recent years. However, the additional personal exemptions for taxpayers age 65 and over and for the blind result in tax subsidies because they are special provisions directed at demographic groups in special circumstances. • The progressive rate schedules.—The progressive rate schedules for the individual and corporate income taxes are a part of the reference tax structure, as would be proportional or even regressive rate schedules. Tax subsidies do not result because some income is taxed at lower rates than other income. The income averaging provision of the Code for individuals is also part of the reference structure. • Separate rate schedules for single and married taxpayers, married taxpayers filing separately, and heads of households.— Existing provisions regarding the definition of taxpaying units and the separate rate schedules for different kinds of taxpayers are considered part of the reference tax structure. The tax subsidy concept is not characterized by any specific set of rate schedules applicable to particular kinds of tax filing units. Similarly, the deduction for second earners, en- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 acted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, is part of the reference tax structure. • Forms of business organization.—The tax law recognizes different forms of business organizations, including corporations, partnerships and Subchapter S Corporations, and individual proprietorships. Generally, provisions of the tax law that accommodate different forms of business organization do not result in tax subsidies so long as income is subject to tax at either the corporate or the individual level. • Treatment of individuals and corporations as separate taxpaying entities.—The separate taxation of individuals and corporate entities is considered part of the reference tax structure. • Deduction of business expenses.—The deduction of business expenses is necessary to determine taxable income under the reference rules of the tax code. Tax subsidies, therefore, do not result from deductions for "ordinary and necessary" business expenses. No attempt is made in this analysis to determine whether certain expenses such as those for entertainment and meals not only should reduce the taxable income of employers, but should also be included in the taxable income of the employees receiving such in-kind benefits. • Foreign tax credits.—The reference structure of the income tax includes tax credits for foreign income taxes paid; this prevents the double taxation of income earned abroad. No estimates are made in this analysis for "negative tax subsidies" or tax penalties—that is, exceptions to the reference tax structure that result in increased tax liabilities for certain groups of taxpayers to discourage specified kinds of activities. At present, there are only a few such provisions. One example is the deductibility of gambling losses in excess of gambling gains only when gambling is engaged in for profit. Also, under the Tax Reform Act of 1976, deductions for the costs associated with the demolition of certain historic buildings were disallowed, and the credit for foreign taxes paid was denied taxpayers who cooperate with, or participate in, an international boycott. MEASURING T A X SUBSIDIES Accounting for budget outlays on a functional or programmatic basis, as in part 5 of the Budget, provides measures of the extent to which the Federal Government influences the allocation of resources in the economy and for what purposes. The functional purposes may be broadly divided into: (1) the provision of public goods and services; (2) the provision of subsidies; and (3) the payment of transfers. Budget outlays for public goods and services such as national defense and administration of justice, are used to acquire labor and capital services directly used in the production of F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 such goods. Subsidies, such as those for school lunches and to encourage the use of U.S. flag shipping, are intended to reduce market prices below the cost of resources used to produce them. Transfers, such as aid to families with dependent children and revenue sharing, are intended to provide a level of income to recipients they otherwise could not achieve. Government receipts and outlays "reallocate resources" because they change the composition of GNP from what it would be in their absence. The decisions to provide public goods and services, to subsidize certain prices (and hence outputs), and to make transfers result in producing a menu of goods and services different from what otherwise would be produced. This occurs because control over resources is moved from the private sector to the public sector either by taxation or by borrowing. Functional budget outlay figures, then, provide a basis for evaluating programs, and their total serves as an index of the size of Government. The amount of outlays measures the resource cost to the Federal Government of accomplishing the program objective. Since GNP is a (gross) measure of the market value of goods and services, the ratio of total budget outlays to GNP is commonly used as an indicator of the size of Government relative to the private economy. When functional budget outlay figures are used to aid in evaluating specific programs, it is essential that the outlay figures be both consistent and comprehensive measures of resource costs. In this regard, it is important that resource costs represent the pre-tax price of resources. The market value of all goods and services summarized in GNP not ony includes the effects of indirect taxes (sales and property taxes) on market prices, but also the before-tax incomes of suppliers of labor (wages) and capital (rent, interest, and profit). Consistency of budget outlay figures requires that such amounts also be stated in pre-tax magnitudes. Generally, budget outlays for the purchase of goods and services used in the provision of public goods are gross of taxes; the payments to vendors and Government employees are gross income to the sellers out of which taxes will be paid as determined by the reference tax law in effect. Similarly, subsidy outlays in the budget generally enter the gross incomes of sellers of subsidized goods and services, along with the remainder of the sales proceeds realized by sellers as payment by private purchasers of the subsidized goods. In some instances budget outlays for goods and services or subsidies are exempted from tax by a special tax provision. When this occurs, the outlay figure understates the resource cost of the program of which it is a part and is, therefore, not comparable with other outlay amounts. For example, the budget outlays for certain housing and meal allowances of military personnel are not includable in their incomes and therefore understate the cost of this SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 National Defense budget element. If this form of compensation were treated under the generally applicable reference tax rule as income taxable to the employee, the Defense Department would have to make larger cash payments to its military personnel to leave them as well-off after-tax and as they are now with nontaxable allowances. Only when the existing tax subsidy is added to the tax-exempt budget outlay, is this element of National Defense expenditure comparable with other defense outlays. Resource reallocation results from subsidies and transfers as much as by special exceptions to reference tax law rules or the expenditure of funds. Just as U.S. flag shipping is encouraged by outlays authorized by the Congress, such shipping is also encouraged by special income tax provisions designed to reduce shipowners' cost of acquiring ships. A review of water transportation programs would therefore be incomplete if no accounting were made of shipping subsidies implemented through the tax system. Similarly, a Federal budget accounting of aid provided to States and to local governments would be incomplete if it did not include amounts provided through tax exemption of interest received by holders of bonds issued by State and local governments. Any total of Federal Government expenditures that omits such tax subsidies does not provide a comprehensive accounting of the resources reallocated by Federal Government fiscal measures. The estimates of tax subsidies in table G-1 have been prepared to conform to the objectives of functional budget accounting for outlays. Thus, table G-1 figures are estimated as outlay equivalents, the magnitudes of which are consistent with direct budget outlays. The estimated tax subsidy is therefore equal to the direct expenditure of funds that would be required to accomplish the same objective. The entries should be viewed as amounts that should be added to functional budget outlays and restored to budget receipts to provide a consistent and comprehensive display of the resource reallocations produced by Federal fiscal measures. The basic difference between the outlay equivalent and previous revenue loss estimates is that these estimates reflect the fact that payments would be subject to tax under the reference tax rules. The following examples will clarify the difference in estimating technique for major classes of tax subsidies. 1. Government outlays that are exempt from tax.—Certain housing and meal allowances for military personnel are not included in the pre-tax incomes of military personnel. The conventional "revenue loss" estimate for this item computes the tax that would be paid by military personnel if these payments had been taxable. By contrast, the outlay equivalent recognizes that the intent of this personnel policy is to attract and retain the existing military force and that the equivalent taxable pay under the reference tax law 380-700 0 - 83 - 15 QL : 3 F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 would therefore have to be sufficient to yield them an after-tax (disposable) income large enough to permit the same housing and meal expenditures they now enjoy. Since virtually all military personnel have otherwise taxable incomes, the outlay equivalent estimate exceeds the revenue loss estimate. Thus, the tax subsidy estimate is now measured in a consistent manner with other Defense Department outlays. 2. Subsidies to reduce market prices.—The new incremental research and development (R&D) credit provides a subsidy for industrial R&D. A firm qualifying for the credit is not required to include the credit in computing its taxable income, as it would if it were to recieve such funds as a cash payment from the Government. The expenditure equivalent of the incremental R&D tax credit is estimated as the amount of subsidy that would have to be paid to firms for their qualified R&D expenditures and that would reduce their costs as much as the tax credit. Again, this estimate of the R&D tax credit expenditure equivalent is larger than the revenue loss amount. Other tax subsidies that have the effect of reducing market prices are paid by reducing the tax payments of the purchaser. For example, the personal deduction allowed for medical insurance obviously reduces the cost of medical insurance to its purchasers. Under the reference tax rules, this deduction is unrelated to the computation of individuals' (purchasers') taxable income. Further, the full expenditure of the insured taxpayer enters the taxable incomes of medical practitioners and others whose fees are covered by the insurance. The expenditure equivalent of this subsidy is therefore simply the reduction in tax payments of purchasers resulting from the preferential deduction. The present tax subsidy estimate for this item is therefore made in the same manner as the revenue loss estimate. 3. Capital subsidies.—The Government may subsidize the acquisition of capital in the private sector in either of two ways. It might provide capital grants with respect to the acquisition of specified classes of assets, or it might provide preferential loans to entities acquiring particular assets. The investment tax credit for machinery and equipment is an example of a capital grant, similar to construction subsidies paid shipowners who have ships built in U.S. shipyards, or the furnishing of equipment to Government contractors. In general, the beneficiary of a capital grant is not considered to have contributed to the cost of the asset for tax purposes. The asset is shown on the beneficiary's books at its net private cost. Thus, depreciation of only the cost net of the subsidy is recovered. However, in the case of the investment tax credit, the private firm has been allowed cost recovery deductions for the entire cost of credited SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 assets. Under the outlay equivalent computation, this additional cost recovery is accounted for as an addition to the initial grant (tax credit) to derive the expenditure equivalent. Beginning in January 1983, this grant will be reduced by half the amount of the investment tax credit because the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) provides for a partial basis adjustment for assets eligible for the investment tax credit. Tax deferrals resulting from special accelerated capital cost recovery allowances are a form of Government lending. For example, under the reference tax rules, investments for the discovery and development of mineral deposits would be capitalized when incurred and recovered as depletion allowances as production takes place from the deposits. Under special tax rules, however, these investment expenditures are recovered as deductions when made, reducing taxes when the investment is made, and increasing taxes in later years. The deferral of tax, as compared with the tax stream that would have occurred under reference tax rules, is an interest-free loan. The expenditure equivalent of tax deferrals shown in table G - l is comparable to the treatment of net lending in the outlay section of the budget. Only net new lending (deferrals) is accounted for; the subsidy element attributable to a zero interest rate on the deferral is not. The tax subsidy estimates reported in table G - l were prepared by the Treasury Department and are based upon income tax law enacted as of December 31, 1982. The estimates show the expenditure equivalent of each special tax provision by fiscal year. Estimates of the tax subsidies resulting from the exclusion of Federal Government payments to individuals from taxable income, are based on estimates of payments shown elsewhere in the budget. The estimating procedure for tax subsidies uses the same implicit assumption that governs estimates of out-year budget outlays; viz, that the existing tax structure and all other institutional determinants of resource costs are given. It is also assumed that aggregate output and incomes remain at levels that 1984 budget estimates are based upon. The tax subsidy estimates presented in this Special Analysis, including those computed on a "revenue loss" basis as shown in table G-2, are not estimates of the increase in Federal receipts that would accompany the repeal of the special provisions that give rise to the tax subsidies. There are several reasons for these differences. Tax subsidy estimates are based on the actual level of tax-subsidized activities; in some instances the level of these activities would be expected to change dramatically if the tax subsidy were removed. Because of these behavioral changes, the revenue gain from repeal of a provision may be much lower than the tax subsidy figure. For example, realizations of capital gains could be expected F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 to drop if such gains were subject to tax at ordinary rates. Another example would be the response to the taxation of a particular employee fringe benefit such as employer-paid medical insurance premiums that is currently untaxed. The expected response would be a decrease in the amount of employer-paid medical premiums, and a possible increase in the amount of other fringe benefits, such as employers' pension contributions and educational assistance. Note that there would be analogous behavioral responses if many direct outlay programs were eliminated or curtailed. For example, the removal of a price support for a particular agricultural commodity could be expected to lead to higher production of other price-supported commodities. In such cases, the net reduction in budget outlays would be less than the savings from the eliminated (or curtailed) program. A second reason for the difference between revenue loss and tax subsidy estimates is the effect that repeal would have on the aggregate level of income and economic growth. For example, all receipts as well as expenditure figures in the budget are based on projections of income and growth which assume the investment tax credit, as currently enacted, will continue. If, however, the investment credit were repealed (or curtailed) without being replaced by a comparable investment incentive, the current projections of income and growth would have to be revised. Consistent with these revisions, receipts and expenditure projections would also have to be changed. The estimated net effect of repeal of the investment tax credit on receipts, therefore, would not be equivalent to the tax subsidy. As is the case with estimates of proposed changes in tax law, tax subsidy estimates are computed on a "cash-flow" basis. However, for purposes of the present analysis, the estimates show the difference between tax subsidies under current law and tax subsidies under the assumption that a law without the particular tax subsidy provision had always been in effect. These figures, therefore, generally show larger amounts than would be saved in the first years of transition to a tax law without the special provisions. The estimates take into account any changes scheduled under existing law, such as the phasing in or out of specific provisions. Tax subsidy estimates cannot simply be added together to obtain totals for functional areas or to obtain a grand total. Adding tax subsidy amounts produces inaccurate totals because certain tax subsidies affect the value of other tax subsidies. In some cases, the reduction in tax subsidies from the simultaneous deletion of two tax provisions items would be greater than the sum of the reductions from the separate deletion of the two items. For example, if interest income from State and local government bonds were made taxable and capital gains on home sales were not deferred, more SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 individuals would be pushed into higher tax brackets than if just one of these sources of income was treated under the normal rules of the tax code. The combined reduction in tax subsidies would be greater than the sum of the two separate effects. In other cases, the combined reduction in tax subsidies from the deletion of two items would be smaller than the sum of the reductions considered separately. For example, if the deductibility of mortgage interest payments and homeowner property taxes were both repealed and the zero bracket amount (standard deduction) were left unchanged, more individuals who now itemize their deductions would opt for the zero bracket amount than if only one preference were repealed. The reduction in tax subsidies from simultaneously repealing both preferences would therefore be lower than the sum of the two estimates obtained from repealing each one separately. In general, eliminating several itemized deductions at one time would reduce tax subsidies by less than the sum of the reductions measured by eliminating each item separately. This occurs because more taxpayers would use the zero bracket amount. Conversely, simultaneously eliminating many items that are exclusions from adjusted gross income would reduce tax subsidies by more than the sum of the individual reductions because more taxpayers would be pushed into higher tax brackets. Aside from these interaction effects, resources allocated to public purposes would not necessarily be reduced by the total amount of a group of tax subsidies if all the tax subsidy provisions in that group were removed. Tax subsidies and other tax provisions have frequently been changed together or viewed as substitutes for one another. Furthermore, a direct outlay might be substituted for a tax subsidy. Thus, aggregating tax subsidies that took interactions into account would simply indicate the total resources available for some combination of cutting tax rates, increasing outlays, and reducing the deficit. If a group of tax subsidy provisions were removed, the overall effects on budget receipts and on resource allocation and income distribution in the economy therefore depend on the particular decisions made as to which changes in tax rates and outlays—out of a limitless number of alternatives—were used to compensate for their removal. Finally, although personal and corporation income tax returns continue to be the basic sources of data from which tax subsidy estimates have been derived, estimates are not separately reported for individuals and corporations. This is consistent with the treatment of outlays which are reported by function or by Agency (with fiscal responsibility), not by whether the payee is a person or a corporation. F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 T A X SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION Estimates of tax subsidies for 1982-84 are grouped together by functional category in table G-1. Each tax subsidy has been classified in the functional category used for budget outlays into which it most closely fits. Significant changes effected by provisions of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) are noted within each category. National defense.—The housing and meals provided military personnel, either in cash or in kind, are excluded from income subject to tax. Most of the disability related military pension income received by current retirees is also excluded. International affairs.—A U.S. citizen or resident alien who is a resident of a foreign country or who is present in one or more foreign countries for a prescribed period is allowed special tax relief on his foreign earnings. Beginning in 1982, the prescribed period for physical presence abroad is 11 out of 12 months. Beginning in 1982, the special deductions and exclusions formerly allowed taxpayers living abroad no longer apply. Instead, eligible taxpayers in 1982 may exclude $75,000 per year of foreign earned income and may exclude or deduct reasonable housing costs in excess of one-sixth of the salary of a civil servant at grade GS-14, step 1. The $75,000 exclusion increased to $80,000 in 1983 and continues to rise by increments of $5,000 per year until it reaches $95,000 in 1986. These provisions do not apply to persons who are employed by the U.S. Government; however, they do apply to persons who are not U.S. Government employees but who are paid from public funds. The tax-exempt status of certain allowances received by Federal employees working abroad also results in tax subsidies. The profits of a domestic international sales corporation (DISC) are not taxed to the DISC, but, instead, are taxed to the shareholders (usually parent corporations) when distributed or deemed distributed to them. For DISC's with more than $150,000 in otherwise taxable income, the deemed distribution equals all income attributable to base period exports plus 50% of income attributable to exports in excess of the base period exports. Beginning in 1983 the deemed distribution to corporate shareholders increases to 57.5% of taxable income. Base period exports equal 67% of average annual exports during an earlier 4-year base period. For DISC's with less than $100,000 in otherwise taxable income, the deemed distribution for years beginning in 1983 equals 57.5% of total income. The baseperiod rule is phased-in for DISC's with taxable income between $100,000 and $150,000. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Prior to enactment of TEFRA, a taxpayer computed the foreign tax credit limitation separately for foreign oil-related income to prevent the use of foreign taxes paid on oil-related income to offset U.S. tax on other income, and vice versa. Creditable foreign taxes cannot exceed 46% of foreign extraction income, and an unlimited foreign tax credit carryover or carryback was provided for use against taxes on foreign extraction income. However, if the extraction activities and sales of extraction assets resulted in a net loss in any country, the amount of the loss was excluded from the computation of worldwide foreign oil extraction income for the year. As a result, foreign taxes on extraction income had been used to offset U.S. tax on foreign source nonextraction income. In order to remove this unintended tax benefit, under TEFRA the per-country extraction loss rule for taxable years after 1982 was repealed. Thus, starting in 1983, a net loss in one country resulting from extraction activities will reduce the amount of foreign oil-related income and correspondingly reduce the amount of the foreign tax credit available. General science, space, and technology.—Research and development expenditures are intended to result in new products or processes, cost reductions, or other effects whose benefits will in nearly all cases continue into the future. Businesses may deduct all research and development expenditures, however, in the year when they are incurred rather than amortize them over several years. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 added a credit for increasing research activities. The credit is equal to 25% of the increase in research expenditures over average expenditures in a base period. For 1983 and subsequent years, the base period is the preceding 3 years. The credit expires in 1985. Energy.—Certain capital costs necessary to discover and develop certain fuel mineral properties may be deducted as current expenses rather than amortized over the useful life of the property. Included in this category are the intangible drilling costs of oil wells, such as the wages of drilling crews, and the cost of developing other mineral deposits, such as expenditures for mine shafts, tunnels and stripping. Intangible drilling costs for oil and gas wells are a preference item for purposes of the individual's minimum tax to the extent that such costs exceed either cost depletion or 10-year amortization. However, they may exclude intangible drilling costs from their minimum tax base to the extent that the deductions did not exceed oil and gas income. The same rules apply to intangible drilling costs of geothermal wells. Prior to TEFRA there were two minimum taxes; the "add-on tax" and the "alternative tax." The add-on minimum tax was F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 repealed in 1982, but intangible drilling costs are still a preference item for computing an individual's alternative minimum tax. Extractive industries generally use percentage depletion rather than cost depletion. Under cost depletion, actual outlays, to the extent not immediately recovered through expensing of exploration and discovery and development costs, may be deducted over the productive life of the property, much as businesses may take deductions for the depreciation of other capital goods, the cost of which are capitalized when acquired. Unlike depreciation, however, percentage depletion is not limited to the cost of the investment. Under percentage depletion, taxpayers may deduct a percentage of gross income from mineral production at rates ranging from 22% for oil and gas and certain other minerals to 5%; however, the deduction is limited to 50% of net income from the property or 65% of taxable income in the case of oil and gas. Percentage depletion for oil and natural gas is available only to limited quantities of output of independent oil and gas producers and royalty owners. In addition, the percentage depletion rate for oil and gas is being phased out from 22% in 1980 to 15% in 1984 and thereafter. Production from geothermal deposits is eligible for percentage depletion at the same rate as for oil and gas, but with no limit on output and no limitation with respect to qualified producers. In lieu of percentage depletion, royalties from coal deposits are treated as capital gains rather than ordinary income. A variety of tax incentives stimulate energy conservation and encourage conversion to energy sources other than oil or natural gas. Individuals may take a 15% income tax credit for home insulation and other energy-conserving components up to a maximum credit of $300. A credit of 40% of the first $10,000 of qualifying expenditures is allowed for expenditures on solar and other renewable energy source property. The residential energy credits expire on December 31, 1985. In addition to the 10% investment tax credit for machinery and equipment, a credit is allowed for business investments in specified energy property. A 10% additional credit is allowed for biomass property and qualified intercity buses; an 11% additional credit is available for certain small-scale hydroelectric generating property; and a 15% additional credit is allowed for solar, wind, ocean thermal and geothermal equipment. These credits also expire on December 31, 1985. Prior to December 31, 1982, there were also additional 10% credits allowed for alternative energy property (i.e., property using fuel other than oil or natural gas); specially defined energy property (i.e., property used in an existing industrial, agricultural or commercial facility to reduce the amount of energy consumed or heat wasted); recycling equipment; shale oil equipment; cogenera- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 tion equipment; alumina electrolytic cells; and equipment for producing natural gas from geopressurized brine. The additional investment credit can still be claimed for long term projects under these provisions if the taxpayer completed all engineering studies and applied for all required environmental and construction permits in connection with the project prior to January 1, 1983. A $3 per barrel of oil-equivalent production credit is provided for several forms of alternative fuels, but, as a general rule, it is not available unless the price of oil drops below $29.50 (in 1979 dollars). The credit is available without this price limitation for processed wood fuel and steam produced from solid agricultural byproducts. Gasohol is exempt from 4 cents of the 9 cents per gallon Federal gasoline excise tax (effective April 1, 1983) and there is a corresponding production income tax credit for alcohol used as a fuel in applications where the excise tax is not assessed. Certain small scale hydroelectric generating facilities owned by a governmental unit and facilities which produce steam or alcohol from solid waste may be financed with tax-exempt industrial development bonds. Natural resources and environment—As is true for fuel-minerals, certain capital costs associated with exploration and development of nonfuel-minerals may be expensed rather than capitalized and depreciated over the life of the asset. In addition, most nonfuelmineral extractors use percentage rather than cost depletion. Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance the pollution control facilities of private firms is excluded from income subject to tax. Beginning in 1982, ERTA made available a 25% credit for expenditures to restore certain historic structures. Subsequently, TEFRA reduced the basis of the rehabilitation costs recoverable as depreciation by one-half the amount of the credit. The credit replaces the special depreciation provisions formerly available for historic rehabilitation. The gains on the cutting of timber and royalties from iron ore deposits are taxed at rates applicable to long-term capital gains rather than ordinary income. Up to $10,000 ($5,000 for a married taxpayer filing a separate return) of direct costs incurred in a taxable year to forest or reforest a site for the commercial production of timber may be amortized over a 7-year period rather than capitalized and recovered when the timber is cut. The $10,000 of costs are also eligible for the 10% investment tax credit notwithstanding the nondepreciability of investments in timber stands. Agriculture.—Farmers, other than certain corporations and partnerships engaged in agriculture, are allowed to deduct certain costs as current expenses even though these expenditures are for inven- F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 tories held at the end of the year or for capital improvements that are required to be capitalized under reference income accounting. Capital gains treatment generally applies to the sale of livestock and certain other agriculture products. Commerce and housing credit.—This category includes a number of tax subsidy provisions that also affect economic activity in other functional categories. In general, provisions related to investment, such as the investment tax credit, might alternatively have been classified under the natural resources and environment, energy, agriculture, or transportation categories. In 1980 and 1981, an exclusion of $200 ($400 on a joint return) was allowed for most dividend and interest income. Effective in 1982 the exclusion is reduced to $100 ($200 on a joint return) and will apply only to dividend income. The interest on "small issue" industrial development bonds issued by State and local governments to finance private business property is excluded from income subject to tax. In addition, interest on State and local government debt issued to finance belowmarket rate mortgages for owner-occupied housing is excluded from income subject to tax. In general, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1980 restricts the use of mortgage subsidy bonds to the financing of homes purchased by first-time buyers of dwellings with prices below 110% of the average area purchase price and places a State-by-State ceiling on the annual volume of such bonds. While a total ban on mortgage subsidy bonds for single family housing becomes effective January 1, 1984, general obligation bonds to finance single-family housing for veterans is still allowed for 1984 and later years. TEFRA placed a reporting requirement on all private purpose tax-exempt bonds, except mortgage revenue bonds. Industrial development bonds must be approved by an elected public official after a public hearing. Depreciable property financed by certain types of tax-exempt IDB's must be depreciated using the straightline method. Small-issue IDB's were prohibited from financing certain types of facilities, such as recreation or entertainment facilities, and a sunset on their tax exemption was set for December 31, 1986. TEFRA also liberalized the eligibility requirements for singlefamily mortgage revenue bonds. Credit unions are exempt from Federal income taxes. Commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and savings and loan associations are permitted to deduct additions to bad debt reserves in excess of actual loss experience and reasonable expectations as to future losses. Mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations may deduct 40% of income provided they maintain stipulated fractions of their assets in "qualifying assets," primarily residential mortgages. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Life insurance policies, other than term policies, generally contain a savings element. Savings in the form of policyholder reserves are accumulated from premium payments and interest is earned on the reserves. Such interest income is taxable neither as it accrues nor when received by beneficiaries upon the death of the insured. Interest paid on consumer credit is allowed as an itemized deduction for individuals. Owner-occupants of homes may deduct mortgage interest and property taxes (but not maintenance outlays or depreciation) as itemized nonbusiness deductions. Sixty percent of net long-term gains from the sale of capital assets may be excluded from income. However, the excluded 60% of net long-term gains is treated as a preference item in computing the "alternative minimum tax for individuals." This tax is applicable only if a taxpayer's regular income tax is less than his alternative minimum tax. Half of net long-term capital losses and 100% of net short-term capital losses may be offset against ordinary income up to a maximum deduction of $3,000 per year with an unlimited carryforward. Net capital gains from sales or exchanges are taxed at a maximum rate of 20%. This maximum rate is equal to the 40% inclusion rate times the maximum individual rate of 50%. Corporations may elect a 28% alternative tax rate on capital gains. The tax subsidy is estimated on the assumption that these gains would otherwise be taxed at ordinary rates. Capital gains on the sale of a home are recognized only to the extent that the "adjusted sales price" exceeds the cost of a new home purchased and occupied within 2 years before or after the sale. The "adjusted sales price" is the amount realized (gross proceeds less selling expenses) minus qualified "fixing up" expenses. If a new house is constructed, it must be occupied within 2 years after the sale. A taxpayer who is 55 years of age or older at the time of the sale of his principal residence may elect to exclude up to $125,000 of gain from the sale. This is a once in a lifetime election. The gain on the sale of capital assets acquired by inheritance is computed as the excess of the sale price over their value at the time of the original owner's death, rather than as the excess over their value at the time of acquisition by the original owner. The estimate assumes that the difference in the computed gain would be taxed as part of the capital gain in the year of sale. The 10% investment tax credit is applied to the cost of qualifying property (generally, tangible, depreciable personal property used in a trade or business) in the 5-, 10-, and 15-year recovery classes under the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS). Assets in the 3-year recovery class are entitled to a 6% credit. Notwithstanding F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 the reduction in cost of acquiring qualified property provided by the credit, taxpayers formerly were able to recover the original cost gross of the credit. Under the provisions of TEFRA, however, beginning with property placed in service in 1983, the basis of an asset must be reduced by one-half of the investment credit allowed on the asset. As a general rule, the credit cannot be claimed for investments in land or buildings or for property used abroad. The credit may be claimed as progress payments made on property that takes 2 or more years to construct. Prior to the Revenue Act of 1978, the maximum credit allowed against income tax liability in a taxable year was generally limited to $25,000 plus 50% of tax liability in excess of $25,000. The 1978 Act raised the excess liability percentage to 60% for 1979 and, through annual increments of 10 percentage points, to 90% by 1982. However, the percentage was scaled back to 85% under TEFRA. The 1981 Act also provided "safe harbors" for tax leases of business machinery and equipment. Under these leases, depreciation and the investment tax credit are normally claimed by the lessor, although the lessee is the actual user and owner of the machinery or equipment. Safe-harbor leasing under TEFRA was repealed after 1983. For the period between July 1, 1982 and January 1, 1984, a restricted form of safe-harbor leasing was put into effect. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allowed financial institutions to issue special 1-year certificates that paid tax-exempt interest until December 31, 1982. The interest rate on the certificates issued during any week was limited to 70% of the interest rate on the last 52-week Treasury bills issued in a preceding week. The total amount of interest that is exempt on these certificates for an individual is limited to $1,000 ($2,000 on a joint return). Financial institutions were required to invest at least 75% of the proceeds from these certificates in housing or agricultural loans. Transportation.—Certain companies that operate U.S.-flag vessels receive an indefinite deferral of income taxes on that portion of their income which is used for shipping purposes, primarily construction, modernization and major repairs of ships. An investment credit of one-half the regular credit may be claimed on the tax-deferred amounts withdrawn from capital construction funds. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allows State and local governments to issue tax-exempt obligations to finance the purchase of mass commuting vehicles. Community and regional development.—Under certain conditions, taxpayers may elect to amortize rehabilitation expenditures for low- and moderate-income rental housing over a 5-year period. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Rehabilitation expenditures may not exceed $20,000 per dwelling unit and must exceed $3,000 to qualify. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 increased the limit to $40,000 per dwelling unit if the rehabilitation is on units which the tenants may purchase at a price that limits the profit to the seller. This provision expires on January 1, 1984. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 also provides an investment tax credit for the rehabilitation of buildings that are used for business or productive activities (other than for residential purposes). The credit is 15% of rehabilitation expenditures for buildings at least 30 years old and 20% for buildings at least 40 years old. The basis of the rehabilitation recoverable as depreciation must be reduced by the amount of the credit. Education, training, employment, and social services.—Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance student loans is excluded from income subject to tax. Taxpayers may claim personal exemptions for dependent children 19 or over who receive income of $1,000 or more per year if the children are full-time students. The student may also claim an exemption on his own return, thus providing a double exemption. The extra exemption for parents results in a tax subsidy. Many employers provide employee benefits that are excluded from employee income. The employers' costs for these benefits are deductible business expenses. The exclusion from an employee's income of the value of meals and lodgings provided by an employer for his own convenience is a tax subsidy, as is the exclusion, of housing allowances and the rental value of parsonages from the taxable income of ministers. An employer may set up an educational assistance program to provide educational benefits to his employees from January 1, 1979, through December 31, 1983. The program can pay for tuition, fees, books, and supplies. Amounts received under the program are excluded from an employee's gross income. Employer contributions to prepaid legal services plans and the value of legal services received under the plans are also excluded from employee income. For qualifying investment made prior to January 1, 1983, a corporation may claim an additional 1% investment tax credit if an equivalent amount of its common stock is set aside in a employee stock ownership plan (ESOP). A further one-half of 1% investment tax credit may be claimed to the extent that additional employer contributions to an ESOP are matched by employee contributions. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, the tax credit for contributions to an ESOP is limited to a prescribed percentage of total compensation paid to all employees under the plan. The percentage is one-half of 1% in 1983 and 1984, and three-quarters of F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 1% in 1985, 1986, and 1987. The ESOP credit expires in 1987. Employees are generally prohibited from withdrawing their share of an ESOP for 7 years. Contributions to charitable, religious and certain other nonprofit organizations are allowed as an itemized deduction for individuals, generally up to 50% of adjusted gross income. Beginning in 1982 nonitemizers may also deduct a portion of charitable contributions. Taxpayers whose contributions to charitable or educational organizations are in the form of capital assets (usually securities that have appreciated in value above their cost), obtain a deduction for the contribution at the current value of the asset without taxation of the appreciation in value. Corporations may deduct charitable contributions of up to 10% of their income beginning in 1982. Tax subsidies resulting from the deductibility of contributions are shown separately here for contributions to educational and other institutions. Contributions to health institutions are reported under the health function. Beginning in 1982, a 30% tax credit may be claimed by married couples for child and dependent care expenses incurred when both spouses work full time or when one spouse works part time or is a student. The credit may also be claimed by divorced or separated parents who have custody of children and by single parents. Expenditures up to a maximum of $2,400 for one dependent and $4,800 for two or more dependents are eligible for the credit. The credit is equal to 30% of qualified expenditures for taxpayers with incomes of $10,000 or less with the credit reduced by one percentage point for each $2,000 of income between $10,000 and $28,000. The targeted jobs credit allows tax credits to employers for qualified wages paid to individuals certified as members of a "targeted group." A credit of 50% of first-year wages and 25% of second-year wages up to $6,000 of each employee's wages can be taken by the employer to offset up to 90% of his tax liability. However, the employer's deduction for wages is reduced by the amount of the credit. The targeted jobs credit was scheduled to expire at the end of 1982 but was extended by TEFRA until the end of 1984. Also, the credit was expanded to include an 85% credit for up to $3,000 of wages paid for the summer employment of 16- and 17-year-old disadvantaged youth. Health.—Payments by employers for health insurance premiums and other medical expenses are deducted as business expenses by employers and excluded from employee income. The exclusion from employee income gives rise to a tax subsidy. Under TEFRA, for tax years beginning in 1983, the floor for deductible medical expenses is increased from 3 percent to 5 percent of a taxpayer's adjusted gross income. In addition, the separate deduction for one-half (up to $150) of medical insurance premi- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 um expenses is repealed. Beginning in 1984, the one percent of adjusted gross income floor under the deductible amount of drug expenditures is eliminated and only expenditures for prescription drugs and insulin will be deductible. Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance private, nonprofit hospital construction is excluded from income subject to tax. Contributions to nonprofit health institutions are allowed as a deduction for individuals and corporations. Contributions to other charitable institutions are discussed under the education, training, employment, and social services function. After 1982, a 50% tax credit is allowed for qualified clinical testing expenses of drugs to treat certain rare diseases or conditions. Income security.—Government transfer payments to individuals, such as aid to families with dependent children, are generally excluded from taxable income. They are like gifts which are not taxed under the reference tax laws. Hence, these transfer payments are not considered tax subsidies. In contrast, the exclusion of payments associated with employment such as unemployment compensation and social security benefits give rise to tax subsidies since labor compensation is generally subject to tax. If the sum of a taxpayer's adjusted gross income, unemployment compensation and excludable disability income is over $12,000 ($18,000 for a joint return), on or after January 1, 1982, under TEFRA, the lesser of his unemployment benefits or one-half of the amount over the $12,000 limit is taxable. Certain payments up to $100 per week financed by an employer in lieu of wages during periods of employee injury or sickness are excluded from the taxable income of persons under the age of 65, who are permanently and totally disabled. For these individuals the exclusion is reduced dollar for dollar by adjusted gross income plus disability income in excess of $15,000. Certain contributions to pension plans by employers and amounts set aside by the self-employed and those not covered by an employer's plan are excluded from the individual's adjusted gross income in the year of contribution. Self-employed persons can make deductible contributions to their own retirement plans equal to 15% of their income up to a maximum of $15,000 per year. Employees can deduct annual contributions of $2,000 (or 100% of compensation, if less), or $2,250 on a joint return if one spouse has no compensation. The investment income earned by pension funds is not taxable when earned. Under TEFRA, there were several changes made in the overall limits on contributions and benefits for employees under qualified F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 pension plans. The maximum annual addition for profit-sharing and other defined contribution plans was reduced from $45,475 to $30,000. The maximum annual retirement benefit under a defined benefit pension plan was reduced from $136,425 to $90,000. The reduction in the overall limits was accompanied by a freeze on costof-living adjustments for three years. Cost-of-living adjustments apply again in 1986 for all plans subject to the overall limitations (qualified plans, Keogh plans, tax-sheltered annuities, and simplified employee pensions) based upon the social security benefit index formula then in effect. The exclusion from employee income of certain other employer payments, including payments for premiums of group life insurance and accident and disability insurance, are listed here because of their relationship to income security. The exclusion of certain other fringe benefits is listed under the education, training, employment, and social services function. Additional personal exemptions of $1,000 may be taken by taxpayers who are 65 years of age or older or blind. These additional exemptions may not be claimed for a taxpayer's dependents. The retirement credit for the elderly allows individuals who are 65 years of age or older to take a tax credit equal to 15% of earned and retirement income up to $2,500 for single individuals and married couples filing a joint return where only one spouse is 65 years of age or older, and up to $3,750 for joint returns where both spouses are 65 years of age of older. The $2,500/$3,750 base is reduced by one-half of the taxpayer's adjusted gross income over $7,500 for single individuals and $10,000 for married couples filing a joint return. Beginning in 1983, under TEFRA, nonbusiness casualty and theft losses will be deductible only to the extent that the total amount of such losses (after reduction of a $100 floor for each separate loss) exceeds 10% of the taxpayer's adjusted gross income. The earned income credit, available to low-income workers with minor dependents, is 10% of earned income up to $5,000 with a phase-out at the rate of 12.5% per dollar earned over $6,000. The maximum annual credit is $500. Earned income tax credits in excess of tax liabilities are paid to individuals. This portion of the credit is included in outlays while the amount that offsets tax liabilities is included as a tax subsidy. Rental housing assistance for eligible families is provided through State and local housing authorities. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1980 restricts the use of tax-exempt bonds for multifamily rental housing projects to those that include 20% (15% in certain targeted areas) of units for low- and moderate-income individuals. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Veterans benefits and services.—All compensation due to death or disability and pensions paid by the Veterans Administration are excluded from taxable income. GI bill benefits are also excluded. General government.—A 50% credit may be claimed on political contributions up to $100 ($200 for joint returns). General purpose fiscal assistance.—Interest on State and local government debt is excluded from Federal taxation. Most of these bonds are owned by commercial banks and casualty and property insurance companies, but a substantial proportion is also held by individuals who receive tax-exempt income. As a result, these governments can sell debt obligations at a lower interest cost than would be possible if such interest were subject to tax. The exclusion of interest on State and local government securities issued to finance certain private purpose facilities, such as hospitals or housing, is classified elsewhere. Only the effect of excluding interest on general purpose obligations and revenue bonds for public purposes, such as toll roads, is included in this function. The deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes gives indirect assistance to these governments. The estimates shown here are primarily for the deductibility of State and local income and sales taxes. The deductibility of property taxes on owner-occupied homes is classified under commerce and housing credit. Under certain conditions, U.S. corporations receiving income from sources in a U.S. possession can claim a special tax credit equal to the U.S. tax, but only on income from such sources. Interest.—The interest on U.S. savings bonds is not taxable until the bonds are redeemed, thereby deferring tax liability. 380-700 0 - 83 - 16 QL : 3 F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table G - 1 . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Description National defense: Exclusion of benefits and allowances to Armed Forces personnel Exclusion of military disability pensions Total (after interactions) International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by United States citizens Deferral of income of domestic international sales corporations (DISC) Total (after interactions) General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and development expenditures Credit for increasing research activities Total (after interactions) Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs: Oil and gas Other fuels Excess of percentage over cost depletion: Oil and gas Other fuels Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for certain energy facilities Residential energy credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative, conservation and new technology credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative fuel production credit Alcohol fuel credit 1 Energy credit for intercity buses Total (after interactions) Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals Exclusion of interest on State and local government pollution control bonds Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures Capital gains treatment of iron ore Capital gains treatment of certain timber income Investment credit and seven-year amortization for reforestation expenditures Total (after interactions) Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays Capital gains treatment of certain income Total (after interactions) Commerce and housing credit: Dividend and interest exclusion Exclusion of interest on State and local industrial development bonds Exemption of credit union income Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings Deductibility of interest on consumer credit Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes Fiscal years 1982 1983 2,890 165 3,055 2,780 165 2,945 1,850 2,870 4,720 2,155 2,565 4,720 115 640 830 -1,160 3,285 45 1,830 45 3,065 600 310 2,545 730 275 1,060 -115 15 390 435 515 400 250 290 20 5 6,170 240 155 45 5 15 4,485 85 595 90 640 870 245 40 565 1,020 320 40 730 2,380 20 30 2,825 550 775 1,410 570 725 1,375 1,530 1,795 225 615 2,250 245 10 660 6,625 10,900 23,495 680 6,780 10,710 25,255 F- 55 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F Table G - l . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Deductibility of property tax on owner-occupied homes Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for owner-occupied housing Capital gains (other than agriculture, timber, iron ore and coal) Deferral of capital gains on home sales Exclusion of capital gains on home sales for persons age 5 5 and over Carryover basis of capital gains at death Investment credit, other than ESOP's, rehabilitation of structures, energy property, and reforestation expenditures Safe harbor leasing rules Amortization of start-up costs Exclusion of interest on certain savings certificates Reinvestment of dividends in public utility stock Total (after interactions) Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies Exclusion of interest on State and local government bonds for mass transit Total (after interactions) Community and regional development: Five-year amortization for housing rehabilitation Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) Total (after interactions) Education, training, employment, and social services: Exclusion of interest on State and local student loan bonds Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) Employer educational assistance Exclusion of contributions to prepaid legal services plans Investment credit for ESOPs Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health.... Credit for child and dependent care expenses Credit for employment of AFDC recipients and public assistance recipients under work incentive programs General jobs credit Targeted jobs credit Total (after interactions) Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care Deductibility of medical expenses Exclusion of interest on State and local hospital bonds Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) Tax credit for orphan drug research Total (after interactions) Income security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Disability insurance benefits OASI benefits for retired workers Benefits for dependents and survivors Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits Exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners Exclusion of untaxed unemployment insurance benefits Fiscal years 1982 1983 8,405 8,810 955 26,590 2,090 710 3,120 1,185 22,865 2,225 765 3,330 19,255 2,880 125 1,970 400 111,905 17,170 3,270 195 840 590 108,300 25 35 25 5 40 45 295 335 360 425 115 1,065 730 55 2,455 830 7,550 1,830 175 985 755 55 25 2,220 770 7,085 2,110 30 115 360 15,500 35 495 15,050 20 22,555 3,970 730 1,240 28,775 25,412 2,950 925 1,155 15 30,755 1,770 14,940 3,735 790 1,735 185 2,615 1,675 15,765 3,765 780 1,875 170 3,330 F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table G - l . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Exclusion of disability pay Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans Plans for self-employed and others Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance Premiums on accident and disability insurance Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits Additional exemption for the blind Additional exemption for elderly Tax credit for the elderly Deductibility of casualty losses Earned income c r e d i t 2 Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for rental housing.... Deduction for motor carrier operating rights Deduction for certain adoption expenses Total (after interactions) Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans disability compensation Exclusion of veterans pensions Exclusion of GI bill benefits Total (after interactions) General government: Credits and deductions for political contributions General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on general purpose State and local debt Deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owneroccupied homes Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in United States possessions Total (after interactions) Interest: Deferral of interest on savings bonds Fiscal years 1982 1983 1984 190 170 150 65,805 5,150 70,005 5,875 78,780 6,480 2,890 165 10 35 2,385 135 1,295 460 425 115 15 107,090 2,910 160 5 35 2,360 135 705 390 580 115 15 113,165 3,095 160 5 35 2,420 135 520 340 770 115 15 123,260 1,860 330 175 2,390 1,815 305 150 2,290 1,835 295 125 2,280 185 195 295 7,215 8,335 9,430 19,085 20,000 21,755 2,365 28,885 2,150 30,720 1,830 33,275 315 450 500 * $5 million or less. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $5 million. Hn addition, the exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts of $55 million in 1982, $80 million in 1983, and $90 million in 1984. 2 The figures in the table indicate the tax subsidies provided by the earned income tax credit. The effect on outlays is= 1982, $1,280 million; 1983, $1,205 million; 1984, $1,125 million. F- 55 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F PROPOSED CHANGES IN T A X SUBSIDIES The administration has proposed a number of tax revisions that would introduce new tax subsidies or change the costs of existing ones. Tuition Tax Credit.—The administration proposes a nonrefundable credit for 50 percent of the tuition paid to private elementary and secondary schools for taxpayers' qualified dependents. This credit, which is subject to certain limitations, will be effective for expenses incurred after July 31, 1983. Enactment of the tuition tax credit will increase the 1984 revenue loss by $245 million. The corresponding outlay equivalent estimates are $100 million in 1983 and $630 million in 1984. Enterprise Zone Program.—The enterprise zone proposal provides tax incentives for the redevelopment of economically distressed areas. Beginning in 1983, up to 25 small areas per year will be designated "enterprise zones." Starting in 1984, businesses in the zones will be entitled to exemption from tax for certain capital gains, and to tax credits for capital investment, for increases in employment, and for hiring disadvantaged employees. A tax credit is also provided to employees in the zones. These incentives will increase the 1984 revenue loss by $85 million. The corresponding outlay equivalent is $265 million in 1984. Tax Treatment of Health Insurance Premiums.—Under current law, cash compensation paid to employees is fully taxable for income tax purposes, while compensation paid in the form of health insurance benefits is nontaxable. The administration proposes that, effective January 1, 1984, employees be taxed on employer-paid health insurance premiums in excess of $175 per month for family plans and $70 per month for individual plans. This proposal is estimated to reduce revenue losses by $1,670 million in 1984. The corresponding outlay equivalent is $2,420 million in 1984. Jobs Tax Credit for the Long-Term Unemployed.—The administration proposes a new tax credit for employers that hire individuals who have exhausted their regular and extended Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits and who would have met the criteria for Federal Supplemental Compensation (FSC) benefits. This proposal is estimated to increase revenue losses by $27 million in 1983 and by $174 million in 1984. The corresponding outlay equivalent estimates are $184 million in 1983 and $642 million in 1984. Social Security Changes.—At present, social security benefits are exempt from the Federal income tax. Under the proposed bipartisan plan, single taxpayers with more than $20,000 ($25,000 for married couples filing a joint return) of adjusted gross income from F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 non-social security sources will be required to include in adjusted gross income one-half of their social security benefits. In addition, the combined employer-employee Old Age and Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) payroll tax rate is currently scheduled to increase from 10.8% to 11.4% on January 1, 1985 and to 12.4% on January 1, 1990. Under the proposed plan the rate will increase to 11.4% on January 1, 1984, 12.12% on January 1, 1988 and to 12.4%, as currently scheduled, on January 1, 1990. Employees would be allowed a refundable credit on their income tax equal to their portion, .3%, of the rate increase accelerated to 1984. The taxation of benefits will reduce revenue losses by $1,100 million in 1984. The corresponding outlay equivalent is $2,730 million in 1984. The refundable tax credit will increase revenue losses by $145 million in 1984. The corresponding outlay equivalent is $3,225 million in 1984. Tax incentives for higher education.—The Administration proposes that there be an exclusion from tax for earnings on savings deposited in special accounts to pay future higher education expenses of dependent children. This exclusion, which will be subject to certain limitations, will be effective January 1, 1984. This proposal is estimated to reduce revenue losses by $13 million in 1984. The corresponding outlay equivalent is $35 million in 1984. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR " T A X EXPENDITURES" Table G-2, which follows, shows the estimated "revenue loss" associated with each tax subsidy item for which an "outlay equivalent" estimate was provided in table G-1. As explained in the text under the heading "Measuring Tax Subsidies," revenue loss estimates do not take into account the additional resources (if any) that would be required to provide the same after-tax incentive if the expenditure program were administered as a direct outlay rather than through the tax system. As was also explained earlier, these revenue loss estimates are not equivalent to estimates of the increase in Federal receipts that would accompany the repeal of tax subsidy provisions. F- 55 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F Table G - 2 . REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Description National defense: Exclusion of benefits and allowances to Armed Forces personnel Exclusion of military disability pensions International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by United States citizens Deferral of income of domestic international sales corporations (DISC) General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and development expenditures Credit for increasing research activities Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs: Oil and gas Other fuels Excess of percentage over cost depletion: Oil and gas Other fuels Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for certain energy facilities Residential energy credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative, conservation and new technology credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative fuel production credit Alcohol fuel c r e d i t 1 Energy credit for intercity buses Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals Exclusion of interest on State and local government pollution control bonds Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures Capital gains treatment of iron ore Capital gains treatment of certain timber income Investment credit and seven-year amortization for reforestation expenditures Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays Capital gains treatment of certain income Commerce and housing credit: Dividend and interest exclusion Exclusion of interest on State and local industrial development bonds Exemption of credit union income Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings Deductibility of interest on consumer credit Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes Deductibility of property tax on owner-occupied homes Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for owner-occupied housing Capital gains (other than agriculture, timber, iron ore and coal) Deferral of capital gains on home sales Exclusion of capital gains on home sales for persons age 5 5 and over Fiscal years 1982 1983 2,250 165 2,200 165 985 1,550 1,285 1,385 450 415 -870 645 3,430 25 1,520 30 410 205 1,850 505 180 15 250 360 430 330 205 220 15 5 10 195 125 40 5 10 50 405 55 440 825 185 20 335 975 270 20 370 10 15 545 610 560 615 2,160 1,640 150 405 4,535 10,825 23,305 8,360 445 2,120 170 405 4,805 10,765 25,065 8,765 905 18,020 1,625 585 15,890 1,480 535 1,110 F- 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table G - 2 . REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Carryover basis of capital gains at death Investment credit, other than ESOP's, rehabilitation of structures, energy property, and reforestation expenditures Safe harbor leasing rules Amortization of start-up costs Exclusion of interest on certain savings certificates ..... Reinvestment of dividends in public utility stock Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for mass transit Community and regional development: Five-year amortization for housing rehabilitation Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) Education, training, employment, and social services: Exclusion of interest on State and local student loan bonds Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) Employer educational assistance Exclusion of contributions to prepaid legal services plans Investment credit for ESOPs Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health Credit for child and dependent care expenses Credit for employment of AFDC recipients and public assistance recipients under work incentive programs General jobs credit Targeted jobs credit Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care Deductibility of medical expenses Exclusion of interest on State and local hospital bonds Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) Tax credit for orphan drug research Income security: Exclusion of social security benefits.Disability insurance benefits OASI benefits for retired workers Benefits for dependents and survivors Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits Exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners Exclusion of untaxed unemployment insurance benefits Exclusion of disability pay Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans Plans for self-employed and others Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance Premiums on accident and disability insurance Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits Additional exemption for the blind Additional exemption for elderly Tax credit for the elderly Fiscal years 1982 1984 1983 1,995 2,180 2,370 16,455 3,333 75 935 130 12,985 2,990 120 1,665 365 14,585 2,795 180 320 415 25 30 40 * 5 15 45 250 55 335 65 365 100 1,070 655 40 20 1,390 835 7,595 1,175 155 995 680 40 25 1,250 775 7,145 1,520 220 950 725 20 25 1,375 840 7,190 1,765 40 80 235 25 290 465 16,365 3,945 680 1,245 18,645 3,105 865 1,170 10 21,300 2,630 1,055 1,205 15 1,780 14,825 3,725 790 1,730 185 2,500 155 1,690 15,685 3,765 780 1,870 170 3,260 145 1,660 16,680 3,870 735 2,090 165 3,020 135 45,280 2,835 49,700 3,755 56,560 4,230 2,035 120 10 35 2,385 135 2,100 115 5 35 2,365 135 2,250 120 5 35 2,410 135 * * SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table G - 2 . REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Deductibility of casualty losses Earned income credit 2 Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for rental housing.... Deduction for motor .carrier operating rights Deduction for certain adoption expenses Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans disability compensation Exclusion of veterans pensions Exclusion of Gl bill benefits General government: Credits and deductions for political contributions General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on general purpose State and local debt Deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owneroccupied homes Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in United States possessions Interest: Deferral of interest on savings bonds Fiscal years 1982 1983 1984 920 455 395 140 10 575 385 530 75 10 380 330 710 75 10 1,855 330 180 1,825 310 150 1,830 295 130 180 190 200 6,885 8,000 9,105 19,160 20,060 21,770 1,375 1,245 1,075 135 435 475 * $5 million or less. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $5 million. 'In addition, the exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts of $55 million in 1982, $80 million in 1983, and $90 million in 1984. 2The figures in the table indicate the effect of the earned income tax credit on receipts. The effect on outlays is: 1982, $1,280 million; 1983, $1,205 million; 1984, $1,125 million. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1 State and local governments have a vital constitutional role in providing government services. The Federal Government contributes directly to that role by providing grants-in-aid and loans to States and localities, and contributes indirectly through policies designed to improve the economy. The Federal Government's role in domestic programs grew very rapidly over the last two decades. Between 1960 and 1981, outlays for grant-in-aid programs increased at an annual rate of 13%—far faster than the increase in the Federal budget or public sector expenditures as a whole. During the same period, the number of categorical grant programs nearly tripled. Associated with these programs were numerous regulations and restrictions on how the funds could be spent. As a result, the Federal Government imposed its priorities on States and localities and assumed many of their responsibilities. A major goal of this administration has been to reduce Federal involvement in activities that are more properly administered by State and local governments. Over the past two years the administration has replaced many narrow categorical grant programs with more flexible aid that has fewer restrictions on its use. The number of narrow categorical grant programs has declined by 35%, from 428 in 1980 to 280 in 1982. A number of these were incorporated into the nine block grants enacted in 1981. The block grants give State and local governments considerably more discretion over the use of Federal aid and contain much simpler administrative requirements than their predecessor programs. The emphasis on shifting responsibility from Federal to State and local governments continued in 1982. The Job Training Partnership Act replaced expiring Comprehensive Employment and Training Act programs with a block grant to States. The block grant combines activities previously financed through three categorical programs and strengthens the State role in providing employment and training programs. f e d e r a l aid to State and local governments is defined as the provision of resources by the Federal Government to support a State or local program of governmental service to the public. The three primary forms of aid are grants-in-aid (including shared revenues), loans, and tax expenditures. Unless specifically indicated to the contrary, reference to "Federal aid" or "grants" in this analysis is confined only to grants-in-aid (including shared revenues). H-1 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 A second major accomplishment in 1982 was enactment of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act. The administration proposed this measure to help rebuild the Nation's deteriorating highway and transit systems. The infrastructure improvements that this Act provides are critical not only to the economic well-being of the Nation but to State and local economies as well. The Act increases Federal support to States to complete final segments of the interstate highway system, to repair existing interstate roadways, and to repair or replace unsafe bridges. Local aid will be available for street repair and mass transit. Consistent with this administration's goal of reducing Federal involvement in local programs, the Act increases flexibility in the use of transportation funds by State and local governments so that they can devise transportation programs in response to their unique needs. The administration proposes to reduce the Federal role in domestic programs further, primarily through a revised federalism initiative that would give State and local governments more discretion over federally funded grant programs, five new block grants or grant consolidations, and further reductions in narrow categorical programs. The administration will also continue to simplify or eliminate administrative requirements associated with Federal grant programs through regulatory reform and management improvements. Federal grant-in-aid outlays to State and local governments, which were $88.2 billion in 1982, are estimated to increase to $93.5 billion in 1983, and $95.9 billion in 1984. The following chart shows trends in outlays in major grant categories from 1974 to 1986. General purpose and broad-based aid are expected to increase over the next few years. Payments for individuals, such as medicaid and nutrition assistance, are a large and growing part of grants-in-aid. Grants for highways are expected to increase as a result of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. As a group, all other grants are expected to decline through 1986. THE FEDERALISM INITIATIVE In January 1982, the administration announced a $50 billion federalism program that would have returned responsibility for a wide range of Federal assistance programs back to State and local governments along with revenue sources to fund them. The initiative proposed a more rational sorting out of fiscal and program responsibilities among levels of government, to bring about greater efficiency in the administration of public programs. Since then, Federal, State, and local officials have had numerous meetings to work out the details of the federalism plan. Based on these meetings, the initial program has been substantially im- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Federal Grants to State and Local Governments r l 00 1 9 7 4 7 $ Fiscal Years 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 Estimate proved and a revised federalism proposal will be sent to the Congress early in 1983. The revised federalism proposal consolidates a number of separate broad-based and categorical grant programs into four block grants: —a State block grant that would combine a number of education, social services, health, and community development programs; —a local block grant that would merge the general revenue sharing program with the entitlement portion of the community development block grant; —a ground transportation block grant that would consolidate several transportation programs; and —a rural housing block grant to States for low income housing construction and repair. Between 1984 and 1988, State and local governments would gradually assume responsibility for services associated with the separate grant programs in the State, local, and transportation block grants. States and localities would have discretion over the pace at which they assume these responsibilities. Annual funding for the three block grants would be set at the sum of 1984 enacted levels for the consolidated programs in order to provide a stable and predictable source of revenues while the transfer of responsi- H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 bilities takes place. The distribution of funds to States and localities would be based on historical allocations and formulas. After 1988, those State, local, and transportation block grant programs that could be funded if commensurate Federal revenue sources were returned to the States, would be phased out. A Presidential commission would be appointed to make recommendations on revenue return issues. ''Details on the State, local, and transportation block grants are now being worked out. Therefore, the grants-in-aid data in this Special Analysis and elsewhere in the budget, do not take the financial transactions of these three block grants into account. The 1984 budget does, however, include proposed budget authority of $850 million in 1984 for the rural housing block grant. N E W BLOCK GRANT AND GRANT CONSOLIDATION PROPOSALS Several other new grant consolidation and block grant proposals in this budget further consolidate categorical grants and give States and local governments more flexibility and discretion over the use of Federal funds. New grant consolidation and block grant proposals are for: Indian community development and housing.—This proposal creates a flexible block grant within the existing community development block grant program to assist Indian tribes in addressing their unique community development and housing needs. Budget authority of $75 million is proposed for 1984, which is $44 million more than is being allocated to Indian tribes in 1983 for discretionary community development assistance. Indian housing.—This proposal would consolidate programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, and the Indian Health Service that support housing construction on Indian reservations. Budget authority of $76 million is requested for 1984, to support the construction of 1,500 housing units. General nutrition assistance.—This proposal combines the school breakfast, child care^ feeding, and summer food service programs into one grant to States. The consolidation would give States more flexibility in providing assistance for meals served outside a school lunch setting. Proposed budget authority is $535 million in 1984. Older Americans program.—This proposal would consolidate programs authorized by the Older Americans Act into grant programs administered by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The consolidation would include activities currently funded by the elderly feeding program, administered by the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Labor's SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 community service employment program. Budget authority proposed for 1984 is $998 million. Primary care services.—This health block grant, enacted in 1981, would be expanded to include black lung clinics, migrant health, and family planning programs. Budget authority for the proposal would be $460 million in 1984, an increase of $165 million over 1983 to cover the new programs. This increase is the same amount of budget authority enacted for the three programs in 1983. CHANGES IN THE FEDERAL A I D PROGRAM Summary of changes.—Table H-1 shows changes in grant programs from 1982 and 1983 and from 1983 to 1984 divided into two categories: those grants that finance State or local payments for individuals, and all other grants. In total, grants that are subsequently paid as income support for individuals—such as medicaid, nutrition assistance and housing programs—are estimated to increase by $4.2 billion from 1982 to 1983 and by $0.6 billion from 1983 to 1984. The largest increases between 1982 and 1983 are for the medicaid programs and for programs that provide nutrition and housing assistance. Between 1983 and 1984 the largest increase is for medicaid programs. The largest decreases are for assistance payments (aid to families with dependent children), and for low income home energy assistance. All other grants are expected to increase by $1.1 billion in 1983, and by $1.8 billion in 1984. The major increase in both years is a result of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. Federal assistance to States and localities for highway programs is expected to increase by $0.8 billion in 1983 and by $3.2 billion in 1984. Changes in major grant programs.—This section describes changes in major grant programs. For a detailed list of these programs, see Table H - l l . Outlays for the Environmental Protection Agency's construction grants program are estimated to be $2.8 billion in 1984, a decrease of $0.3 billion from 1983. This program provides grants to both State and local governments for the cost of constructing sewage treatment plants. The decrease from 1983 reflects completion of projects approved before 1982 and the concentration of funds on currently existing pollution problems. Budget authority of $173 million in 1984 is requested for grants to support State regulatory, enforcement, and pollution control activities. These grant programs include: air quality, water quality, public water supply, underground injection control, hazardous H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table H - l . FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID CHANGES, 1982-84 (Outlays in billions of dollars) Outlays Total grants, 1982 actual Changes Payments for individuals: Medicaid Nutrition assistance Housing programs Other Subtotal payments for individuals. Other programs: Highway programs Social service activities Sewage treatment plant construction Food donations (CCC) Other Subtotal, other programs Total grants, 1983 estimate Changes Payments for individuals: Medicaid Assistance payments (AFDC) Home energy assistance Rural housing Other Subtotal, payments for individuals Other programs: Highway programs Social service activities Sewage treatment plant construction Food donations (CCC) Urban mass transit Other Subtotal, other programs Total grants, 1984 estimate 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.1 4.2 0.8 0.5 -0.7 0.4 0.1 1.1 93.5 1.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.6 3.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 1.8 95.9 wastes, pesticides certification and training, and pesticides enforcement. Outlays for site specific cooperative agreements with States under the hazardous substance response fund are estimated to be $75 million in 1984, $38 million above the amount estimated for 1983. Grants through the land and water conservation fund, the historic preservation fund and other programs formerly assisted States and localities in the management of recreational and other resources. No new budget authority is requested for these programs in 1984, although grants awarded in prior years will have outlays in 1984 and 1985. Estimated outlays for cooperative forestry grant programs will be reduced from $23 million in 1983 to $2 million in 1984. Budget authority for grants to States for fire protection and technical assistance in forest management will not be requested in 1984; SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 however, funding will be proposed to provide for national data collection, information dissemination and limited, specialized technical assistance to States on problems of national scope. Grants and food donations in the agriculture function are made through the Commodity Credit Corporation, the extension service, and the cooperative State research service. Outlays for these programs are estimated to be $1.4 billion in 1983, and $1.1 billion in 1984. Outlays for the Federal-aid highway program are estimated to be $11.3 billion in 1984, $3.7 billion above the 1982 level. An increase in the motor fuels tax, enacted as part of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1981, will provide funds for a major expansion of Federal support to States and localities for the construction and rehabilitation of highways, bridges, and mass transit systems. Budget authority requested for highway traffic safety grants is $148 million in 1984, a $7 million increase from 1983. Research and development grants will be concentrated in areas most effective in reducing accidents and injuries. Incentive grants to States, authorized by the Alcohol Traffic Safety Act of 1982, will help combat drunk driving. In addition, highway legislation enacted in 1982 authorized $10 million in 1984 for a State grant program to enforce Federal safety standards for trucks. Budget authority requested for urban mass transit grant programs is $3.8 billion in 1984, $0.4 billion above the 1982 amount. Beginning in 1984, the existing discretionary grant program will be funded with one cent per gallon of the new motor fuels tax increase and will be used for capital projects. A new grant program begins in 1983, financed by highway user taxes in the first year and general funds thereafter. This program will distribute funds on a formula basis for capital and operating projects in urban and rural areas. Outlays for grants-in-aid for airports are expected to increase between 1983 and 1984 from $0.5 to $0.7 billion. Projects that improve both commercial and non-commercial airport safety, increase airport capacity, or reduce noise, will receive the highest priority for funding in 1984. The community development block grant program will continue to provide assistance to local governments, Indian tribes, and U.S. Territories primarily through entitlement grants. Recipients have considerable freedom in selecting projects under this program so long as they are within the general guidelines of community and economic development and (1) assist people with low and moderate incomes, (2) prevent or eliminate slums and blight, or (3) address urgent community development needs. For 1984, the administration proposes two major changes in this program: making new housing construction an eligible activity and beginning a new 380-700 0 - 83 - 17 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Indian block grant. Budget authority proposed for 1984 is $3.5 billion, $44 million more than provided in 1983. The program is currently planned for inclusion in the administration's revised federalism initiative. The administration is proposing a rental rehabilitation grant program to replace the current section 8 moderate rehabilitation and rehabilitation loan fund programs. This new program will leverage private capital in rehabilitating multi-family properties and therefore be more efficient than the two programs it replaces. Budget authority of $150 million is requested in 1984 for the rehabilitation of approximately 30,000 rental units for lower income families. The urban development action grant program provides discretionary grants to severely distressed cities and urban counties to supplement local government and private sector financing for major economic development projects. The projects are designed to promote local economic revitalization, generate new jobs, and increase local tax bases. New budget authority of $196 million is requested for the program in 1984, in addition to carry over balances of $244 million in budget authority from 1983, for a total program level of $440 million. The administration has requested no funds in 1984 for the economic development assistance programs administered by the Economic Development Administration. Funds for State and local community and economic development programs are available through grant programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Specialized assistance for rural areas will continue to be available through the Farmers Home Administration. Budget authority requested for elementary, secondary, and vocational education grant programs is $5.1 billion in 1984, $0.1 billion below the 1983 request. Budget authority for the largest of these programs, Chapter 1 of the Education Consolidation and Improvement Act, is proposed at $3.0 billion in 1984. The grant goes to State and local education agencies to help them meet the additional costs of education for disadvantaged and handicapped students. Budget authority requested for the State education block grant is $0.5 billion in 1984, the same as in 1983. The State block grant, enacted in 1981, combined about 30 categorical programs into a single multi-purpose grant that gives States increased flexibility in the use of funds for education programs. Budget authority of $1.1 billion is also requested for grants to States to help finance the additional costs of education for the handicapped. The impact aid program compensates local school districts that are adversely affected by Federal activity. Budget authority of $465 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 million will be requested in 1984 for payments to approximately 1,700 school districts. Budget authority for grant programs authorized by the Job Training Partnership Act, is proposed at $3.5 billion in 1984. This amount would maintain the level of training services financed under CETA. Within this total, $1.9 billion is proposed for a block grant to provide job training for economically disadvantaged youth and adults. This program will help States improve the efficiency of job training programs by coordinating Federal job training and related State run programs. The 1982 amendments to the Wagner-Peyser Act provided States with greater flexibility in planning and operating State employment services. Beginning in 1984, each State's allotment will be determined by a formula. The $858 million of estimated outlays in 1984 are equivalent to the 1983 level of $788 million, adjusted for expected cost increases. The work incentive program was started in 1978 to finance job services, training, and public service employment to recipients of aid to families with dependent children (AFDC). The program has not proven to be cost effective and no budget authority is requested for 1984. Applicants and recipients of AFDC will be required to seek work as a condition of eligibility and can receive training under the Job Training and Partnership Act programs. For 1984, budget authority of $1.0 billion is requested for social services for the elderly and other special groups. Grants are made to state and area agencies on aging to assist in financing a range of services to older Americans, particularly those with the greatest economic need. Legislation will be proposed in 1984 to consolidate many of these programs and to broaden the range of services to include subsidized part-time employment and elderly nutrition programs. In 1984, budget authority of $1.0 billion is requested for rehabilitation services with legislation to tie grant funding more closely to successful program performance. In 1981, a new social services block grant was enacted, combining a number of social service programs and related activities. Budget authority of $2.5 billion is requested for the program in 1984, $50 million more than requested for 1983. No budget authority is requested for the community services block grant program in 1984. States will have the flexibility to fund community services activities under the social services block grant. In 1984, $600 million in budget authority is requested for foster care, adoption assistance, and a new child welfare services program, that combines child welfare services and training. Services for children, youth, and families are designed to improve the quality of services for neglected, abused, homeless, or low- H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 income children. Budget authority of $1.1 billion is requested for these programs in 1984, an increase of $128 million from 1983. The medicaid program continues to be the largest grant-in-aid. This program supports State efforts to provide health services to low-income residents. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 established target rates of medicaid cost increases to encourage States to limit the program's tremendous growth. The Congress also adopted a number of the administration's proposals designed to help States manage their programs more efficiently. The 1984 budget proposes additional measures to achieve cost savings. Despite estimated savings of $293 million in 1984, outlays for the program are estimated to increase from $19.3 billion in 1983 to $20.8 billion in 1984. Four health block grants were enacted in 1981 to provide States more flexibility in the use of these funds. They were for maternal and child health; preventive health and health services; alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health; and primary care. Budget authority requested for these programs in 1984 is $1.4 billion, an increase of $0.2 billion from 1983. This increase is due to an administration proposal to expand the primary care services block grant to include categorical programs for black lung clinics, migrant health, and family planning. Outlays for assistance payments (aid to families with dependent children) and child support enforcement programs are expected to be $8.2 billion in 1983, and $7.5 billion in 1984. Proposals to target assistance on those in greatest need will result in savings for States as well as for the Federal Government. Outlays for the Federal share of State administrative expenses for the food stamp program are estimated to be $689 million in 1984. The budget includes proposals to improve State administration of the program and to target benefits on those most in need. Outlays for nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico are estimated to be $825 million in 1984. This program replaced the portion of the food stamp program that was for Puerto Rican residents. The child nutrition program subsidizes meals for children in schools, child care facilities, and other institutional settings. Outlays are estimated to be $2.8 billion in 1984, compared to $3.0 billion in 1983. The special supplemental food program for women, infants, and children (WIC) provides grants for nutritious food supplements to low-income women and their young children to lessen health problems associated with inadequate diets during critical stages of child development. The administration requests budget authority of $1.1 billion for WIC in 1984. The Federal Government reimburses States for cash and medical assistance, employment training, social services, State administra- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 tive costs, and child welfare services to low-income refugees and entrants who are not eligible for AFDC, medicaid, or general assistance. In 1984, the administration will request budget authority of $466 million for a per capita grant assistance program to fund States for refugee and entrant assistance. To moderate the impact of rising energy costs on low-income families, $1.3 billion in budget authority is proposed for low-income home energy assistance in 1984. This is a $0.7 billion reduction from 1983. In an effort to direct these funds more precisely to lowincome persons, legislation is being proposed to revise the State allotment formula. The new formula directs more funds to States with severe winter climates and large low-income populations. The administration is requesting budget authority of $90 million in 1984 for a new criminal justice assistance grant program. The program would provide training, technical, and financial assistance to State and local criminal justice agencies, with a special focus on the apprehension of violent and repeat offenders. One of the largest grants is general revenue sharing; which provides assistance to local governments with virtually no restriction on the use of funds. Outlays for the program, which the administration proposes to renew in 1983, are estimated to remain at $4.6 billion in both 1983 and 1984. Under the administration's federalism initiative, general revenue sharing would be combined with the entitlement portion of the community development block grant program, into a local block grant beginning in 1984. Revenues are shared with State and local governments from receipts received from timber and mineral sales on Federal lands. These payments are proposed to be increased from $0.6 billion in 1983 to $1.1 billion in 1984. In addition, $96 million in payments-inlieu of taxes are proposed for 1984. Additional information on many of these grant programs is in Part 5 of the Budget Loans.—Another form of Federal aid to State and local governments is assistance in obtaining credit, either directly or through loan guarantees. Direct loan disbursements (excluding repayments) are estimated to be $1.9 billion in 1984, and $1.8 billion of new guaranteed loans are estimated in 1984. (More information on Federal credit activities is available in table H-12 and in Special Analysis F.) Tax Expenditures.—Federal aid to State and local governments is also provided through tax expenditures. The two major tax expenditures are the deductibility of most State and local taxes and the exclusion of interest on State and local securities from Federal taxation. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Individuals can claim nonbusiness sales, income, and property tax payments to State and local governments (other than payments already taken as business deductions) as itemized deductions on their Federal tax returns. This permits States and localities to raise a dollar of revenue with less than a dollar of net cost to their citizens. The 1984 tax expenditure for property taxes on owneroccupied homes is estimated to be $9.6 billion and the tax expenditure for other nonbusiness State and local taxes—primarily income and sales taxes—is estimated to be $21.8 billion. Interest on virtually all State and local government securities is tax exempt. This permits State and local jurisdictions to borrow at reduced interest rates. The tax expenditure is $9.4 billion in 1984 for the exclusion of interest on State and local general obligation bonds and public purpose revenue bonds. Interest on State and local industrial revenue bonds is also tax exempt. These bonds finance industrial and transportation projects, pollution control facilities and housing. Tax expenditures in 1984 are estimated to be $2.6 billion for industrial facilities, $1.2 billion for pollution control facilities, and $0.8 billion for State and local rental housing bonds. State and local governments have been using the proceeds of taxexempt borrowing to provide mortgage funds for private housing. The tax exemption of interest on State and local securities makes it possible to provide such funds at interest rates well below the rates for private mortgages. At first, tax-exempt housing bonds were used mainly to assist low-income, multifamily housing; recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of such bonds for owner-occupied housing, including housing purchased by middle and upper income families. Although the eligibility requirements for single family mortgage revenue bonds were liberalized by the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, a ban placed on the use of these funds in the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1980 becomes effective January 1, 1984. The 1984 tax expenditure is estimated to be $1.3 billion. Interest on State and local bonds that finance hospitals, student loans, certain energy facilities, and mass transit is also tax exempt. Tax expenditures in 1984 for these items are estimated to be $1.1 billion, $0.2 billion, $20 million and $15 million, respectively. Total Federal aid to State and local governments through tax expenditures is estimated to be $54.5 billion in 1984. The administration will propose an enterprise zone program that would provide tax incentives for the redevelopment of economically distressed areas. Beginning in 1983, up to 25 small areas per year would be designated "enterprise zones." Starting in 1984, businesses in the zones would be entitled to exemption from tax for certain gains, and to tax credits for capital investment, for increases in SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 employment, and for hiring disadvantaged employees. A tax credit would also be provided to employees in the zones. The tax expenditure from this proposal is estimated to be $265 million in 1984. (More information on tax expenditures is provided in Special Analysis G. Special Analysis F contains additional information on assistance from tax-exempt financing.) FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID BY FUNCTION, AGENCY, AND REGION Distribution of grants by function.—Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the Congress reviews the budget and sets targets by function. Consequently, the functional classification of the budget has become important not only for analysis but also for congressional control. Part 5 of the budget discusses the entire Federal budget by function. In recent years the budget documents have included detailed data for two years beyond the budget year to improved planning for the longer term. Consequently, the discussions and data in many parts of this budget include the 1984-86 planning period. Consistent with that approach, this special analysis shows estimates through 1986 in many of the tables and on the chart on a previous page. Table H - 2 . FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION (In milions of dollars) Function National defense Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services Health Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance Total outlays Actual 1982 68 509 4,871 986 3 12,171 5,379 16,589 18,839 21,930 63 187 252 6,347 Estimate 1983 1984 1985 76 592 4,110 1,399 3 13,315 5,022 16,768 20,644 24,918 73 136 226 6,257 103 368 3,658 1,119 2 16,436 4,829 16,193 22,207 23,752 71 139 175 6,874 127 298 3,519 1,066 2 17,229 4,748 16,065 24,662 24,210 73 142 174 6,848 1986 162 262 3,293 1,076 2 17,778 4,593 16,053 26,879 24,966 76 84 165 7,080 88,194 93,537 95,926 99,162 102,468 Table H-2 shows a functional distribution of Federal grant-in-aid outlays. The functional composition of grant outlays has changed significantly over the years, as shown in table H-3. The most dramatic growth has occurred in the health function, which increased from 3% of Federal aid in 1960 to an estimated 23% in 1984. Other changes occurred between 1960 and 1984 in education, H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 training, employment, and social services programs which increased from 7% in 1960 to an estimated 17% in 1984. General purpose fiscal assistance also increased with the addition of revenue sharing, from 2% in 1960 to an estimated 7% in 1984. Between 1982 and 1984 the largest change is expected to occur for transportation, which is estimated to increase from 14% to 17% of total grant outlays. This increase is due to the enactment of the Surface Transportation Assistance Act of 1982. Table H - 3 . PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION Estimate Actual Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services Health Income security General purpose fiscal assistance Other Total 1960 1970 * * 2 3 43 2 7 3 38 2 * 100 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 6 1 14 6 19 21 25 7 1 1 4 1 14 5 18 22 27 7 1 * * * 2 4 19 5 27 16 24 2 1 1 6 1 14 7 24 17 20 9 1 4 1 17 5 17 23 25 7 1 4 1 17 5 16 25 24 7 3 1 17 4 16 26 24 7 2 100 100 100 100 100 100 * 100 *0.5% or less. Distribution of grants by agency.—Table H-4 shows grant outlays by agency. The Department of Health and Human Services will provide 38% of total estimated grant-in-aid outlays in 1984, far more than any other agency. Table H-4. FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY AGENCY (In millions of dollars) Agency Funds Appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Education Activities Energy Activities Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentDepartment of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency Other Total outlays. Actual 1982 Estimate 1983 1984 414 6,764 488 7,185 356 34,254 9,206 1,590 168 5,567 12,105 4,883 4,079 1,135 382 8,240 390 7,319 405 36,702 10,052 1,519 108 5,790 13,248 4,909 3,387 1,086 333 7,776 235 7,087 175 36,611 10,479 1,912 113 5,696 16,369 4,917 3,116 1,107 88,194 93,537 95,926 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Distribution of grants by region.—Table H--5 shows that Federal aid on a per capita basis varies widely among regions. The thinly populated Western States traditionally rank high because of highway construction grants and shared revenues from Federal land holdings. For example, the Rocky Mountain States have the lowest regional population density, extensive Federal land holdings and, until recently, the highest per capita aid. This effect has diminished in recent years as human resource programs have grown relative to physical resource programs. General revenue sharing has also tended to equalize per capita figures among the regions. Region VIII, which had per capita grants 24% above the national average in 1972, now has grants only 8% above the average, while Region V has risen from 21% below the average to only 4% below. Grants to Region V have grown the most during the period, averaging 10.8% per year. Table H - 5 . DISTRIBUTION OF GRANTS BY REGION, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS Dollars per capita Federal Region 1. Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island II. New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands III. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, District of Columbia IV. Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida V. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota VI. Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas VII. Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska VIII. Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming IX. Arizona, California, Nevada, Hawaii, other territories X. Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Alaska United States 1982 1 total grants 1972 19822 Average annual percent increase, 1972-82 5.5 13.5 173 203 437 475 9.5 8.7 10.4 155 419 10.2 13.5 16.5 7.9 3.8 149 127 159 130 340 362 305 319 8.4 10.8 6.6 9.2 2.9 10.8 3.5 200 188 199 411 372 427 7.3 6.9 7.7 88.2 161 379 8.7 Preliminary estimate, in billions of dollars. 2 Based on 1981 population. See "Federal Aid to States," Department of the Treasury, for additional information concerning State distribution of Federal grants. 1 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES In recent decades, Federal aid to State and local governments has become a major factor in the financing of certain government functions. The rudiments of the present system date back more than 100 years to the Civil War. The Morrill Act, passed in 1862, established the land grant colleges and instituted certain federally required standards, as is characteristic of the present grant-in-aid system. Federal aid was later initiated for agriculture, highways, H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 vocational education and rehabilitation, forestry, and public health. In the depression years, Federal aid was extended to meet income security and other social welfare needs. However, Federal grants did not become a significant factor in Government expenditures until after World War II. In 1950, Federal grants to State and local governments were $2 billion, and by 1965 they had risen to $11 billion. In 1978 they increased to nearly $78 billion, an average annual increase of 16% since 1965. In 1984 Federal grants are expected to be 11.3% of total Federal outlays and 16.3% of domestic Federal outlays. Table H-6 shows historical data for grant outlays since 1950. Table H-6 also shows grants-in-aid as a percent of State and local expenditures and as a percent of gross national product (GNP). Grants as a percent of State and local expenditures increased from 15.3% in 1965 to 26.8% in 1978, declining to 22.1% in 1982. Grants increased as a percent of GNP from 0.9% in 1950 to a peak of 3.7% in 1978, declining to 2.9% in 1982. Table H - 6 . HISTORICAL TREND OF FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in millions) Federal grants,as a percent of Total grants-inaid Five-year intervals: 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Annually: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate 1986 estimate 1 $2,253 3,207 7,020 10,904 24,014 49,834 59,093 68,414 77,889 82,858 91,472 94,762 88,194 93,537 95,926 99,162 102,468 Budget outlays Total Domestic1 State and local expenditures 2 Gross National Product 5.3% 4.7 7.6 9.2 12.3 15.4 8.8% 12.1 15.9 16.5 21.3 21.5 10.4% 10.1 14.7 15.3 19.2 23.0 0.9% 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.3 3.3 16.2 17.1 17.4 16.9 15.9 14.4 12.1 11.6 11.3 10.8 10.4 21.9 22.9 23.1 22.5 21.2 19.5 16.6 16.2 16.3 16.0 15.7 24.2 25.9 26.8 26.3 26.2 25.0 22.1 NA NA NA NA 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 Excludes outlays for the national defense and international affairs functions. defined in the national income and product accounts. NA=Not available. 2As The chart shows total governmental expenditures as a percent of GNP since 1950. Federal expenditures including grants have increased as a percent of GNP from 16% in 1950 to 25% in 1982, while State and local expenditures including grants have increased from 7% in 1950 to 12% in 1982. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Government Expenditures as a Percent of GNP Percent Federal, State, and Local Governments percent Table H-7 shows the composition of grant-in-aid outlays since 1950 according to the categories of payments for individuals, capital investment, and other purposes. Almost half of estimated 1984 grants are to States and localities as payments for individuals.2 Most such grants are accompanied by State or local matching payments. Among the larger of these programs are medicaid, assistance payments, housing assistance, and nutrition programs for children. Table H-7 also shows the share of State and local capital expenditures financed by Federal grants or by revenues from State and local own sources. The Federal share increased from 8.3% in 1955 to 23.9% in 1960 largely because of the initiation of Federal financing for the interstate highway system. The share increased from 24.6% in 1970 to 39.6% in 1980, increasing by more than half in ten years. This rise was due in part to the rapid growth of Federal aid in real terms—the major programs being highways, mass transit, community development block grants, and sewage treatment plans—and in part to substantial real declines in State and local spending from their own sources. In constant 1972 dollars, Federal aid grew from $8.1 billion in 1970 to $10.6 billion in 1980, an 2 Payments for individuals are defined as Federal budget outlays providing benefits in cash or in-kind that constitute income transfers to individuals or families. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table H - 7 . COMPOSITION OF GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in millions) Composition of grants-in-aid Five year intervals: 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Annually: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Total grants-inaid Grants for payments for individuals 1 Grants for capital investment 2 Other 2,253 3,207 7,020 10,904 24,014 49,834 1,257 1,623 2,479 3,931 9,023 17,441 484 820 3,321 4,985 7,053 10,867 59,093 68,414' 77,889 82,858 91,472 94,762 88,194 93,537 95,926 21,023 23,860 25,981 28,765 34,174 39,934 40,744 44,978 45,531 13,475 16,109 18,316 20,043 22,464 22,132 20,480 20,606 23,685 Share of State and local capital expenditures financed byGrants-in-aid Own source revenues 512 764 1,220 1,988 7,938 21,526 8.4% 8.3 23.9 24.8 24.6 25.8 91.6% 91.7 76.1 75.2 75.4 74.2 24,595 28,445 33,592 34,050 34,834 32,696 26,970 27,953 26,710 31.1 41.1 41.1 40.0 39.6 39.0 37.9 NA NA 68.9 58.9 58.9 60.0 60.4 61.0 62.1 NA NA *For an identification of accounts in this category, see Table H—11 and footnotes. 2 Excludes a small capital grant that is included as a payment for individuals. NA=Not available. average annual increase of 2.6%, while capital expenditures financed from State and local own sources declined from $26.0 billion in 1970 to $16.8 billion in 1980, an average annual decline of 4.2%. Grants for capital investment are estimated to be $23.7 billion in 1984, 25% of total grants-in-aid. GRANTS SIMPLIFICATION The increase in grant expenditures since World War II was accompanied by an increase in the number of grants designated for specific purposes. This increase took place especially in the 1960's and early 1970,s. These grants usually contained Federal legislative and regulatory mandates, required matching funds from the recipient governments, and gave little discretion in their use to State and local officials. They came to be known as categorical grants, with complex administrative requirements to ensure that their purposes were met. To combat this trend and to devolve authority, general-purpose and broad-based grants have been emphasized in recent years. Table H-8 shows the much greater importance of general-purpose and broad-based grants since 1972. General-purpose grants give State and local governments almost complete discretion in determining their use; broad-based grants give State and local gov- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 ernments considerable discretion within a broadly defined program area, such as health or community development. In 1972 there were virtually no general-purpose or block grants. For 1982, these grants are estimated to be one-fifth of total grants-in-aid. Despite the elimination of the State portion of general revenue sharing, this percentage remains about one-fifth through 1986. Most general-purpose and broad-based grants reduce or eliminate the requirement that recipients match Federal funds with their own. Despite the increase in these grants, matching requirements for all grants as a whole have not changed significantly. In 1982, State and local governments were estimated to provide approximately $1 of matching funds for $2.22 of Federal aid; this ratio is expected to decline slightly in 1984. The decrease in matching requirements for general-purpose and broad-based aid has been partially offset by the significant growth in programs such as medicaid that require a larger than average matching share. The chart shows that of all the grants to State and local governments in 1983 almost 90% of estimated obligations is concentrated in only 20 programs. Nevertheless, there are 150 other categorical grants with different matching requirements, timing difficulties, complex application procedures, program duplication, and other administrative problems. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table H - 8 . OUTLAYS FOR GENERAL-PURPOSE, BROAD-BASED, AND OTHER GRANTS (Dollar amounts in millions) Estimate Actual 1976 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 $6,243 $6,829 $4,569 $4,567 $4,567 $4,567 $4,567 $516 907 1,765 1,941 1,878 2,501 2,475 2,708 516 7,150 8,594 6,510 6,445 7,068 7,042 7,275 90 983 128 3,902 83 3.792 661 48 3,525 1,115 35 3,526 1,299 440 3,474 1,357 451 3,497 1,357 451 1,930 558 1,698 2,251 622 2,144 2,763 546 1.793 2,567 572 1,639 2,571 499 1,415 2,500 478 1,886 2,600 468 1,886 2,700 233 554 818 1,685 390 1,961 414 1,396 476 1,349 689 1,298 972 2,855 31,001 6,172 45,771 10,332 72,546 11,482 70,202 11,832 75,260 11,551 77,307 12,284 79,836 12,629 82,564 34,372 59,093 91,472 88,194 93,537 95,926 99,162 102,468 1.5% 8.3% 90.2% 12.1% 10.4% 77.5% 9.4% 11.3% 79.3% 7.4% 13.0% 79.6% 6.9% 12.6% 80.5% 7.4% 12.0% 80.6% 7.1% 12.4% 80.5% 1972 General-purpose grants: General revenue sharing Other general purpose fiscal assistance and TVA1 Subtotal, generalpurpose grants L Broad-based: Community development Health State education block grants School aid in federally affected areas Employment and training Social services Low-income home energy assistance Other Subtotal, broad-based grants Other grants Total ADDENDUM: PERCENT OF TOTAL General-purpose grants Broad-based grants Other grants Total 602 7.1% 12.3% 80.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ^ o r detail, see grants in the general purpose fiscal assistance function, Table, H—11. Amounts in Table H-8 above include shared revenues from the Tennessee Valley Authority, shown in the energy function. The chart also shows that there were 360 grants in 1981 and an estimated 170 in 1983, a reduction of 190, or 53%. Most of the decline is the direct result of the 9 new block grants enacted in 1981 and the elimination or consolidation of many small programs. In view of the rapid growth of the number of grant programs since the mid-1960's, this decline is a major improvement. This simplification of Federal aid has saved a significant number of hours for State and local governments. Paperwork associated with the nine block grants decreased by an estimated 5.4 million hours in 1982. In addition to reductions in the number of categorical grant programs, the administration has simplified or eliminated many mandatory administrative or procedural requirements associated with the Federal grants that remain. Regulatory reforms have increased the efficiency of the intergovernmental grant-in-aid system, and management improvements have strengthened the au- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 thority of State and local elected officials over Federal financing and development activities in their jurisdictions. Regulatory Reform.—In January 1981, President Reagan established a Presidential Task Force on Regulatory Relief. The main purpose of the Task Force has been to review existing regulations and identify those that are burdensome, unnecessary, and counterproductive. During 1981, the Task Force designated over 100 existing regulations for review. Twenty-seven of these had a major impact on State and local governments. In 1982 the Task Force designated eight more regulations, bringing to 35 the number of rules under review that affect State and local governments. Several Federal agencies have also initiated reviews of requirements associated with their own grant programs that could hamper local efficiency and accountability and increase program costs. Twenty-five reviews were completed during the past two years by either the Task Force or by various Federal agencies. The reviews have resulted in significant changes in existing regulations. —The Department of Agriculture simplified cost accounting requirements for the national school lunch program, eliminating nearly 12 million hours of administrative work each year. —The Department of Education adopted new rules governing Federal financial assistance to State and local education agencies. Paperwork requirements were reduced and schools were freed of unnecessary Federal supervision, direction, and control. —The Department of Health and Human Services revised medicaid rules to give States greater flexibility in administering the program. —The Department of Transportation modified standards for highway repair work permitting States to establish their own less costly procedures and criteria for resurfacing, restoration and rehabilitation of existing highways. Available data indicate that regulatory relief actions have saved State and local governments at least $4 to $6 billion in initial costs and at least $2 billion on an annual basis. Over 25 other reviews are now underway in several agencies. —The Environmental Protection Agency will continue to consolidate and simplify the rules for several EPA grant programs. —The Office of Personnel Management proposes to simplify the personnel procedures States must adopt in order to be eligible for federally funded programs such as food stamps and medicaid. States will certify compliance instead of submitting detailed and repetitive reports. —The Department of Health and Human Services intends to modify its regulations governing State administered non-entitlement programs to reduce excessively detailed reporting re- H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 quirements and elaborate cost accounting and recordkeeping procedures. The administration is also trying to simplify selected generally applicable crosscutting requirements imposed on State and local governments. Crosscutting requirements are policy requirements and administrative management standards that apply to some or all assistance programs. As a first step, a directory describing 60 of these requirements was prepared for use by Federal agencies and State and local governments. In addition, legislation was introduced and management reforms instituted, to improve relocation assistance and real property acquisition policies and to improve historical and archeological preservation requirements. Management Improvement—This administration has tried to improve the management of intergovernmental assistance by providing more opportunity for consultation with State and local governments, by offering more reliable and timely information on actual and prospective funding levels, and by streamlining the financial management system for Federal aid. Selected actions taken include: —Executive Order 12372, Intergovernmental Review of Federal Programs, established a new procedure giving State and local officials more access to and influence over Federal activities that affect their jurisdictions. The order requires Federal agencies to use a State developed process for obtaining the views of State and local officials. Federal agencies must accommodate those views when possible. —The Federal Assistance Awards Data System was established to provide better information about current grant funding to States. Data on all direct assistance awards are being provided quarterly to the States and to the Congress. —Budget Information for States, a report that is published soon after the budget is released, provides State-by-State allocations of the funding levels of the major formula grant programs for the past, current, and budget year. —Audit systems are being streamlined to place maximum reliance on audits made by State and local government. The system calls for vigorous followup on audit findings and timely collection of audit related debts. —Steps are being taken to develop sound internal accounting and administrative control systems to foster efficient management of grant programs and eliminate fraud and abuse. In a series of regional meetings scheduled for this year, Federal agencies will work with States to reduce waste and fraud in jointly administered grant programs. —Agencies are being encouraged to develop cash management systems that will minimize or eliminate excess Federal cash SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 balances held by grant recipients. One agency has developed a method that requires States to estimate when benefit checks will be cashed and to draw funds at that time rather than when checks are issued. At the same time, the Federal Government is trying to accelerate its reimbursements to State and local governments. —Agencies are in the process of delegating authority to State and local recipients of Federal aid to establish their own procurement systems. State and local systems that meet Federal standards are being certified in advance so that Federal involvement in procurement can be kept to a minimum. OTHER SOURCES OF FEDERAL A I D INFORMATION The grant-in-aid series in the budget provides a comprehensive picture of Federal grants-in-aid, which are programs financed but not directly administered by the Federal Government. The Census series (published in Governmental Finances) and the national income and product accounts (NIPA) series (published in Special Analysis B and in the Survey of Current Business) are parts of a broader statistical concept encompassing the entire economy, and as a consequence grants-in-aid are defined somewhat differently than in the budget. Both series omit the following items that the budget includes: —Federal aid to the Governments of Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; —payments in-kind, primarily commodities purchased by the Department of Agriculture and donated to the school lunch and other nutrition programs; and —payments to private, nonprofit entities (such as nonprofit hospitals) that operate under State auspices or within a State plan. One major group of payments excluded in the budget definition of grants but included in the Census and NIPA series is payments for research conducted by public universities. The budget series excludes these payments because they are considered to be a purchase of services for the Federal Government rather than aid for State or local programs. Because both Census and ^he NIPA series focus on total cash payments to State and local governments, they count these as grants. A major item included only in the Census definition is unemployment compensation for Federal employees, ex-servicemen, and temporary extended benefits. These items were either new or became large in 1976, when they were first included in the Census data. One major kind of outlay included in the budget and Census definitions but excluded from the NIPA series is grants to subsidize the operation of public enterprises, mainly housing and transportation facilities. These are counted as subsi380-700 0 - 83 - 18 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 dies by the Federal Government in the NIPA rather than as grants. Table H-9 shows these and other minor differences among the three series, but the differences are largely offsetting and, thus, these three series exhibit similar patterns. Table H - 9 . THREE MEASURES OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, 1978-81 (In billions of dollars) 1978 Budget (Special Analysis H) Less principal exclusions: Agricultural commodities Geographical exclusions Plus payments for research Federal unemployment benefits and related All other (net) Federal payments (Census) Less: Low-rent public housing Federal unemployment benefits and related All other (net) Grants-in-aid (national income and product accounts) 1979 1980 1981 77.9 82.9 91.5 94.8 -0.6 -1.6 2.2 1.2 0.1 -0.7 -1.8 2.4 0.8 -0.6 -1.1 -2.0 2.9 1.3 -1.8 -1.1 -1.8 3.2 2.6 -3.1 79.2 85.2 90.8 94.6 -2.3 -1.2 -1.0 -2.8 -0.8 -2.5 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 -3.9 -2.6 2.0 74.7 79.1 86.7 90.1 In addition to these data sources, Federal Aid to States, published by the Department of the Treasury, lists grant outlays for the most recently completed year by State for more than 100 programs, using the budget definition of grants. The Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, prepared by the Office of Management and Budget and available from the Government Printing Office, contains a detailed listing of grant-in-aid and other assistance programs; discussions of eligibility criteria, application procedures, and estimated obligations; and related information. This is a primary reference source for communities wishing to apply for grants-in-aid. The Federal Register is published daily by the Government Printing Office and has current information on agencies that are accepting applications for specific programs. This source also provides information on eligibility criteria and application procedures. THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SECTOR OF THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS 3 The national income and product accounts (NIPA) provide a comprehensive statistical description of the U.S. economy that includes State and local government receipts and expenditures. These data measure the relationship between the State and local govern3Special Analysis B provides general information on the Federal sector of the national income and product accounts. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 ments as a sector of the economy and other sectors. The State and local data are presented here to provide a context in which to compare the grants-in-aid. There are three major differences between NIPA data and a governments own budgetary accounting for receipts and expenditures. First, financial transactions and the purchase and sale of land and other existing assets are excluded from NIPA data but are generally included in budgetary data. Second, a large number of transactions in the NIPA accounts are recorded on an accrual basis, while many governments show transactions on a cash basis. Third, NIPA data aggregate total State and local transactions, whereas many governments separate their general fund from special funds. As a result of these differences, NIPA totals are not the same as an aggregate of these governments' financial budgets. However, the NIPA data do provide timely estimates of total State and local fiscal transactions not otherwise available and if used with care can provide helpful financial indicators. NIPA State and local sector.—Table H-10 provides a historical tabulation of State and local data with the surplus or deficit divided between two components: social insurance funds and the operating account.4 The social insurance funds, primarily retirement programs, have been in surplus since before 1950. These funds accumulate assets to pay for their future liabilities. Because social insurance fund surpluses are not generally available to pay for deficits in operating accounts, the operating account is generally thought to be a better measure of State and local fiscal condition than the surplus or deficit for the sector as a whole. It is reasonable for the operating account to be in deficit because it includes capital expenditures, often financed through borrowing, and the account was in deficit in the 1950's and 1960's. However, as noted above, State and local governments have reduced real capital investment that is generally financed from borrowing, and in most cases are required by State constitutions or laws to finance current operating programs from current revenues. In the 1970's however, the account was in surplus several years. Surpluses in 1972 and 1973 resulted from the first general revenue sharing distributions and higher tax receipts generated by tax rate increases and the rapidly expanding economy. In 1974, the operating account returned to a deficit. In part, this reflected a return to previous patterns, as State and local expenditure increases absorbed the increased revenues. It also reflected the recession, with State and local governments choosing to draw down balances accu- 4 The operating account contains all transactions except those of social insurance funds, including expenditures for capital investment. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table H - 1 0 . NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS, STATE AND LOCAL SECTOR (Calendar years; in billions of dollars) Surplus or deficit ( Receipts Five-year intervals.1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Annually: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 Expenditures Social insurance funds Total sector 21.3 31.7 49.9 75.1 135.4 237.7 22.5 32.9 49.8 75.1 133.5 232.2 -1.2 -1.3 0.1 267.8 297.7 327.6 352.0 385.9 416.8 414.9 251.2 269.7 297.3 321.5 357.8 385.0 437.3 ) Operating account 1.9 5.5 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 6.9 13.1 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.4 -5.1 -7.6 16.6 28.0 30.3 30.4 28.2 31.7 31.8 15.6 18.0 20.3 23.8 27.3 31.8 36.3 0.9 10.1 10.0 6.6 0.9 -0.1 -4.4 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, ANNUAL RATES 1981: 1 II Ill IV 1982: 1 II Ill 410.0 415.2 420.3 421.5 378.6 382.2 386.9 392.4 31.3 32.9 33.5 29.1 30.3 31.3 32.3 33.3 1.1 1.7 1.2 -4.2 424.2 434.3 440.5 396.5 402.2 408.2 27.7 32.1 32.3 34.5 35.7 36.9 -6.8 -3.6 -4.5 *$50 million or less. 1 Preliminary. mulated during 1972-73 rather than enact new tax increases. The operating account moved slightly into surplus in 1976 and this surplus expanded significantly in 1977 and 1978. The operating account has a surplus of $0.9 billion in 1980, a $0.1 billion deficit in 1981, and a $4.4 billion deficit in 1982. DETAILED FEDERAL AID TABLES The following two tables present detailed Federal aid data for 1982, 1983, and 1984. Table H - l l , "Federal Grants to State and Local Governments—Outlays and Budget Authority," provides detailed budget authority and outlay data for grants and shared revenues. Table H-12, "Credit Assistance to State and Local Governments/J provides information on direct and guaranteed loans to State and local governments. Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY (In millions of dollars) 1983 estimate 1982 actual 1984 estimate Function, agency and program Functional code 1 OUTLAYS 1982 actual 1984 estimate 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY National defense: 29 39 30 46 30 73 68 76 103 346 163 404 188 174 193 509 592 368 Department of Defense—Military: National Guard centers construction Federal Emergency Management Agency Total, national defense Energy: Energy Activities: Energy conservation grants. Tennessee Valley Authority Total, energy 051 054 29 80 30 91 30 141 050 109 121 171 272 271 129 176 75 270 129 176 75 301 302 302 302 140 11 10 34 65 3 5 35 28 302 306 3 50 4 68 12 303 303 303 303 303 303 157 153 171 Natural resources and environment: 144 13 10 32 91 7 5 33 15 7 4 2 33 50 15 68 11 12 148 1 1 2 31 211 163 1 2 7 36 168 See footnotes at end of table. 30 Department of Agriculture: Watershed and flood prevention operations, Resource conservation and development Forest research State and private forestry Department of Commerce: NOAA—Coastal zone management NOAA—Operations research and facilitiesDepartment of the Interior: Fish and Wildlife Service Grants Operation of the National Park System National recreation and preservation Park Construction Urban park and recreation fund Land and water conservation fund Of "d s> r > > 5 GO HH 2 8 2 7 U1 5 a i to Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Function, agency and program 197 24* 169 14* 66 6 6 62 11* 109 1 320 3,756 3 250 3,100 37 241 2,800 75 4,871 4,110 3,658 36* Land acquisition Historic preservation fund Miscellaneous permanent appropriations Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation, and Enforcement Bureau of Mines Youth conservation corps Environmental Protection Agency: Abatement, control, and compliance Sewage treatment plant construction grants Hazardous substance response trust fund Total, natural resources and environment Functional code1 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 303 303 303 302 306 302 6 25* 5 26* 84 9 165 * 232 304 304 304 239 2,400 32 233 2,430 58 173 2,400 95 300 3,209 3,259 3,115 352 352 351 352 92 316 548 1 98 329 937 1 96 287 720 0 350 957 1,364 1,103 371 376 2 2 2 370 2 2 2 401 401 1 401 1 518 0 0 Agriculture: 129 307 548 1 132 328 937 2 136 295 688 0 986 1,399 1,119 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 2 Department of Agriculture: Cooperative State research service Extension service Commodity Credit Corporation Agricultural Marketing Service Total, agriculture Commerce and housing credit: Department of Agriculture: Rural housing supervisory assistance grants Department of Commerce: Minority business development Total, commerce and housing credit Transportation: 8 16 15 269 11 389 Department of Transportation: Highway beautification Interstate transfer grants—highways 7,590 21 8,216 12 130 138 80 3,782 2 65 80 119 207 3,740 55 527 5 3 66 11,303 13 9 4 71 122 25 3,416 242 745 15 3 67 12,171 13,315 16,436 339 Federal aid highways (trust fund) Highway related safety grants Motor carrier safety grants Appalachian highway system Other highway aid National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.. Federal Railroad Administration Urban mass transportation fund Mass transportation capital fund Airport and airway trust fund National recreational boating safety Research and special programs Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Total, transportation 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 402 403 407 401 8,137 10 12,425 27 203 70 3,464 2 52 3 141 2 3,494 779 800 45 4 52 400 12,843 18,263 452 452 453 150 150 150 78 125 125 3 3 199 10 476 * 13,542 10 10 79 0 148 2,600 1,250 994 45 4 52 18,732 Community and regional development: 304 201 110 248 1 133 3 210 6 3 1 208 5 3 * 165 2 2 323 40 235 30 147 30 10 16 1 3 5 8 5 1 4 * * 132 10 3,792 3,525 See footnotes at end of table. 3,526 Funds appropriated to the PresidentAppalachian regional development programs Appalachian housing fund Disaster relief Department of Agriculture: Rural development planning grants Rural water and waste disposal grants Rural development grants Rural community fire protection grants Department of Commerce: Economic development assistance programs Local public works program Drought assistance program Regional development programs Regional development commissions NOAA: Coastal energy impact fund Energy Activities: Energy conservation grants Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community development grants 452 452 452 452 452 452 453 452 452 452 90 * 452 451 3,456 3,456 3,500 Table H—11. FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 101 6 388 71 6 488 20 4 1 17 4 14 4 1 1 17 13 16 19 13 16 5,379 5,022 4,829 50 3 512 Function, agency and program Urban renewal programs Other categorical programs replaced by block grants Urban development action grants Rental rehabilitation grants Planning assistance Neighborhood self-help development program New Community Development Corporation Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs Federal Emergency Management Agency Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation Total, community and regional development Functional code1 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 452 501 451 1982 actual 1983 estimate 474 440 "-1 -1 17 1 14 17 13 450 4,587 4,307 504 503 18 15 3,028 466 495 78 92 1,061 952 728 74 3 3,028 475 458 51 62 1,099 1,037 809 60 3 16 Education, training, employment, and social services: 1 12 24 23 2,939 546 636 74 110 1,131 780 802 57 3 101 5 3,008 572 461 70 92 1,120 1,038 752 63 3 135 5 3,010 499 463 28 84 1,148 1,012 776 14 48 5 Department of Commerce: Job opportunities program Public telecommunications facilities, planning and construction Education Activities: Compensatory education for the disadvantaged Impact aid Special programs and populations Indian education Bilingual education . Education for the handicapped Rehabilitation services and handicapped research Vocational and adult education Student financial assistance Higher education Libraries..... Special institutions 501 501 501 501 501 501 506 501 502 502 503 501 222 2,567 1,531 13 389 240 299 2,571 1,660 9 565 352 26 2,500 1,951 7 590 98 5 5 5 3,295 56 38 24 685 131 172 23 2,912 61 2,843 47 11 778 38 137 29 26 832 130 28 Department of Health and Human Services: Work incentives Social services block grant Human development services Research and demonstration Family social services Community services Department of the Interior: Operation of Indian programs Department of Labor: Training and employment services Community service employment for older Americans Temporary employment assistance State unemployment insurance and employment service operations.... Unemployment trust fund: Training and employment Community Services Administration Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities 16,589 16,768 16,193 Total, education, training, employment, and social services. Health: * * 29 32 35 595 120 656 553 179 492 17,391 19,326 161 90 110 954 20,799 42 5 56 4 54 5 18,839 20,644 22,207 See footnotes at end of table. Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention Department of Agriculture: Food Safety and Inspection Service Department of Health and Human Services: Health resources and services2 Disease control Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health 2 Grants to States for health 2 Medicaid2 Department of Labor.Occupational Safety and Health Administration Mine Safety and Health Administration Total, health 504 506 506 506 506 506 267 2,400 1,621 8 465 340 257 2,450 1,674 8 560 348 2,500 2,120 3 601 501 5 5 5 504 504 504 504 504 506 503 503 2,382 62 3,030 62 3,469 19 716 22 778 31 1,014 172 29 137 28 130 26 500 15,564 16,539 16,565 554 554 30 32 35 6 71 553 551 551 551 551 421 142 432 415 153 439 18,014 14,795 1,358 20,738 554 554 47 4 52 5 54 6 550 19,091 15,890 22,266 CO M o > > r m H-t Ul ffl EC i 00 Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Function, agency and program Functional code1 1982 actual 1983 estimate Income security: 20 7 415 769 780 19 3,021 1,115 165 12 7,734 435 1,961 554 1 280 15 8 365 689 825 19 2,786 1,090 77 5 7,059 413 1,396 452 "l55l" 5 1,968 4,815 40 1,520 6 1,889 24,918 23,752 4,388 Department of Agriculture: Rural housing block grant 2 Rural housing for domestic farm labor 2 Mutual and self-help housing 2 Agricultural Marketing Service 2 Food stamp program 2 Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico 2 Special milk program 2 Child nutrition programs 2 Special supplemental food programs (WIC) 2 Food donations program 2 Department of Health and Human Services: Supplemental security income program 2 Assistance payments programs 2 Child support enforcement Low income home energy assistance 2 Refugee and entrant assistance 2 Payments to States from receipts for child support Department of Housing and Urban Development: Subsidized housing programs 2 Indian housing 2 Payments for operation of low income housing projects Congregate services program 2 Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund Total, income security 604 604 604 605 605 605 605 605 605 605 14 4 457 686 27 2,690 933 141 609 609 609 609 609 609 20 5,961 604 604 604 604 603 12,215 5,821 1,491 1,282 1,541 4 1,953 600 28,696 25,896 703 42 1,872 623 1 Veterans benefits and services: 44 45 Veterans Administration: Medical care 2 13 395 622 825 19 3,004 1,090 160 12 7,719 450 1,984 545 Medical administration and miscellaneous operating expenses Grants for construction of State extended care facilities 2 Assistance for health manpower training institutions Grants for the construction of State veterans cemeteries Total, veterans benefits and services Administration of justice: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Fair housing assistance Department of Justice: National Institute of Corrections Justice assistance Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Total, administration of justice 703 703 703 705 12 16 18 4 18 3 3 700 70 64 70 751 5 6 5 754 754 751 4 73 18 4 68 19 5 90 18 750 99 96 118 > General government: Department of the Interior: Administration of territories Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands Office of Personnel Management: Intergovernmental personnel assistance Total, general government General purpose fiscal assistance: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service permanent appropriations Department of Defense—Civil: Water resources permanent appropriations Energy activities-Payments to States under Federal Power Act Department of the Interior: Payments in lieu of taxes Bureau of Land Management permanent appropriations National wildlife refuge fund Payments to States from receipts under the Mineral Leasing Act Payments to U.S. territories Internal revenue collections for the Virgin Islands Department of the Treasury: General revenue sharing a> ^ w o r 806 806 806 88 99 70 96 59 88 800 186 166 147 852 852 852 243 6 1 145 6 1 269 6 1 852 852 852 852 852 852 96 639 13 96 601 13 66 57 96 58 13 995 60 851 4,567 4,567 4,567 > > r 225 5 ffi ffi 00 CO Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 72 270 427 75 275 461 6,347 6,257 6,874 88,194 93,537 95,926 69 245 • 402 Function, agency and program U.S. Customs Service Internal revenue collections for Puerto Rico Federal payment to the District of Columbia Total, general purpose fiscal assistance Total, grants-in-aid *$500 thousand or less. 1 For a description of these codes, see Table 14 in the Budget of the United States Government, 1984. 2 Programs included in the "Grants for payments to individuals" category shown in Table H-7. Functional code1 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 852 852 852 63 239 402 72 270 427 75 275 461 850 6,336 6,253 6,875 91,878 92,398 90,405 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table H - 1 2 . CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1 (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Function, agency and program 1984 estimate 1983 estimate Direct Loans Natural resources and environment: Department of the Interior: Bureau of Reclamation loan program Drought emergency loan fund Total, natural resources and environment New loans Net loans 30 24 25 20 40 35 Outstandings 331 351 387 New loans Net loans -6 —3 -3 Outstandings 19 16 14 New loans Net loans 30 18 25 17 40 32 350 367 401 1 _* _* 1 1 1 New loans Net loans 24 24 8 8 16 16 Outstandings 39 47 62 196 196 196 25 25 8 8 16 16 235 243 258 955 -89 809 21 675 —108 -4 -4 Outstandings Agriculture and Commerce and housing credit: Department of Agriculture: Agriculture credit insurance fund and rural housing insurance funds New loans Net bans Transportation: Department of Transportation: Federal aid highways (trust fund) Right-of-way revolving fund Outstandings New loans Net loans Outstandings Total, transportation New loans Net loans Outstandings Community and regional development: Department of Agriculture: Rural development insurance fund Department of Commerce.Drought assistance program Coastal energy impact fund - 1 New loans Net loans Outstandings New loans Net loans 1 1 153 65 4 94 90 86 New loans Net loans 29 28 15 14 9 7 Outstandings 95 108 115 15 8 New loans Net loans Outstandings 173 * 22 -11 Outstandings See footnotes at end of table. 1 Outstandings Department of Housing and Urban Development: New loans Urban renewal programs Net loans Revolving fund (liquidating programs) 1 - 1 1 * -20 442 -21 422 -22 400 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table H-12. CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS C o n t i n u e d (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Function, agency and program Total, community and regional development... New loans Net loans Outstandings.. 1,005 -88 785 Education, training, employment and social services: Education activities: New loans Student loan insurance fund and other Net loans Outstandings.. College housing loans.. Higher education facilities loan fund., New loans Net loans Outstandings.. New loans Net loans 1983 estimate 4 4 Outstandings.. Income security: Department of Housing and Urban Development: New loans Low-rent public housing Net loans General purpose fiscal assistance: Other independent agencies-. Loans to the District of Columbia- Grand total, direct loans.. Guaranteed Loans Agriculture and Commerce and Housing Credit: Department of Agriculture.Rural housing insurance fund Community and regional developmentDepartment of Agriculture: Rural development insurance fund.. 16 -4 86 48 14 1,218 45 9 1,227 -5 93 52 14 61 1,406 1,406 905 1,000 -21 Outstandings.. 162 162 New loans... Net loans 285 117 295 116 Outstandings.. 1,684 1,799 New loans Net loans 2,303 64 2,229 150 Outstandings.. New loans Net loans Outstandings.. New loans Net loans 4,623 4,771 1 -1 22 Outstandings.. 1,535 988 6,886 Outstandings.. 7 -65 116 Department of Housing and Urban Development: New loans Urban renewal programs Net loans See footnotes at end of table. 793 90 Outstandings.. Total education, training, employment, and social services New loans Net loans 839 9 1,191 669 7,555 3 -60 56 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table H-12. CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS i — C o n t i n u e d (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Function, agency and program Community development loans New loans Net loans 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 90 43 155 119 182 134 117 236 370 Total, community and regional development... New loans 1,632 1,349 1,826 Net loans 966 728 768 7,119 7,847 8,615 Outstandings Outstandings General purpose fiscal assistance: Department of the Treasury: New York City loan guarantees Grand total, guaranteed loans New loans Net loans 600 507 -156 -154 Outstandings 1,444 1,288 1,134 New loans Net loans 2,233 1,472 1,350 572 1,827 614 Outstandings 8,585 9,156 9,770 * $500 thousand or less. 1 Only direct loans are included in budget outlays. New direct loans less loan repayments, sales, etc., are net loans, which are counted in the budget as outlays. Guaranteed loans are non-Federal loans guaranteed by the Federal Government. For a discussion of credit in the budget, see Special Analysis, F, "Federal Credit Programs" SPECIAL ANALYSIS H CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN T H E EXECUTIVE BRANCH This administration has a strong commitment to restrain Federal civilian employment. Significant reductions have been achieved in nondefense employment since the administration took office. FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT OF TOTAL FEDERAL CIVILIAN IN THE EXECUTIVE EMPLOYMENT BRANCH Beginning with fiscal year 1982, control of executive branch agency civilian employment was shifted to a full-time equivalent (FTE) or workyear basis. (Section 904 of the 1982 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 97-86) exempts the Department of Defense from full-time equivalent employment controls. Postal Service employment, which by law is not subject to Presidential control, is also excluded.) Full-time permanent employment accounted, on an FTE basis, for nearly 88% of the workforce in fiscal year 1982. The remainder is made up of the full-time equivalent of part-time employees, intermittent employees (those employed on an irregular basis), and full-time temporary employees (generally, in positions occupied for less than 1 year). Table I - l is a tabulation of full-time equivalent employment estimates for the major departments and agencies of the executive branch. The estimates in table I - l are related to employment ceilings that constitute upper limits to employment levels. The table contains an estimated lapse to take account of the fact that, over the past several years, actual nondefense employment has ranged from 0.7% to 3.3% below budget estimates. In 1982, the actual total was 3.3% below the 1983 Budget estimate for 1982. The estimates for 1983-1985 anticipate lapses of about 1.4%. I-l 380-700 0 - 83 - 19 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table 1-1. FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT OF TOTAL FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH 1 (Excluding the Postal Service) Fiscal year 1982 revised Budget estimate2 Agriculture Commerce Defense—civil functions Education Energy Health and Human Services Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other: Agency for International Development General Services Administration Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Personnel Management Panama Canal Commission Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority United States Information Agency Miscellaneous Contingencies Estimated nondefense lapse Subtotal Defense—military functions 4 Total 1982 actual 3 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate 121,000 36,300 32,100 6,600 18,700 154,000 15,700 81,700 54,400 21,600 22,900 68,100 124,300 12,900 111,853 32,437 31,263 5,639 17,920 141,548 14,609 73,220 53,876 19,184 23,545 60,340 115,829 11,450 111,000 35,400 30,600 5,500 16,700 142,000 14,000 74,900 56,900 19,400 23,900 62,600 127,100 10,900 108,900 33,100 28,900 5,300 15,800 137,900 12,700 73,500 58,200 19,300 24,400 62,500 126,300 10,400 106,900 33,800 28,900 5,200 15,800 134,000 12,700 73,500 58,800 18,800 24,400 62,500 126,000 10,400 22,700 209,600 22,430 215,321 22,000 217,100 22,000 219,000 22,000 220,600 5,600 32,800 3,400 6,600 9,100 4,700 44,700 7,600 45,000 1,000 5,385 30,168 3,468 5,996 8,708 4,340 41,230 7,805 40,118 5,400 29,600 3,400 5,900 8,900 4,300 40,600 8,100 40,400 5,300 29,100 3,400 5,800 8,900 4,100 39,600 8,500 40,100 5,100 29,100 3,300 5,800 8,900 3,900 40,000 8,500 39,900 -15,000 -15,000 -15,000 1,163,100 937,700 1,097,682 978,081 1,101,600 968,800 1,088,000 989,900 1,083,800 992,000 2,100,800 2,075,763 2,070,400 2,077,900 2,075,800 'Excludes developmental positions under the Worker-Trainee Opportunity Program (WTOP) as well as certain statutory exemptions. 2 As contained in the revised 1982 Budget, transmitted to the Congress in March 1981. 3 Data are estimated for portions of Defense-civil functions as well as for the Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors, the International Trade Commission, and the Merit Systems Protection Board. 4 Section 904 of the 1982 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 97-86) exempts the Department of Defense from full-time equivalent employment controls. Data shown are estimated. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYMENT Many agencies show decreases, in table 1-1, from the 1983 estimates to the corresponding estimates for 1984. • Department of Health and Human Services (—4,100).—Employment will be reduced by eliminating excessive overhead staff; continuing the community services closeout; decreasing regulatory requirements for health and social services programs; and deregulating categorical grants and consolidating selected grant programs. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 • Department of Commerce (—2,280).—Decreases will result from completion of the Economic and Agricultural Censuses, the termination of the Economic Development Administration, and the phasedown or elimination of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration marine and atmospheric related services and research activities. A planned increase of about 100 workyears is intended to reduce backlogs in the Patent and Trademark Office. • Department of Agriculture (—2,050).—Decreases amounting to nearly 1,900 workyears are planned for the Forest Service for program reductions and expected increases in management productivity. Most of the balance of the decrease occurs in the Soil Conservation Service and Food and Nutrition Service with a partial offset by a small increase for the Farmers Home Administration to meet debt management requirements. • Department of Defense—Civil Functions (—1,629).—Reductions are due to declining program levels resulting in cutbacks in real estate and construction management personnel and the completion of 20-25 projects per year. Private sector dredging capability is increasing, with correspondingly less need for dredges operated by Federal employees. • Department of the Interior ( — 1,338).—Decreases will occur due to Bureau of Indian Affairs school closures and transfers, streamlined research and regulatory processes, improved operational efficiencies, and less labor intensive methods of natural resource management. These reductions are partially offset by increased staffing to operate and maintain the national park system. • The Department of Housing and Urban Development (—1,247).—This decrease results from both programmatic and administrative changes. In the housing area, modernization and operating subsidies have been combined with a simplified formula mechanism. Both Section 8 and public housing construction have been largely eliminated. In the community development area, programs have been combined and simplified, with greater devolution of program administration and decision-making to States and localities. Federal Housing Administration employment will decrease due to privatization of loan processing. Finally, a greater reliance on ADP operations and contractual services and a streamlining of administrative functions both at headquarters and in the field will reduce administrative employment. • Tennessee Valley Authority ( — 1,052).—A slowdown in the growth of electricity demand has forced TVA to cancel and/or defer construction on some nuclear generating units. This will H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 lead to reductions of on-site construction workers and associated personnel such as engineers and administrative staff. • Energy Activities (—884).—Employment will continue to decline for energy overhead, regulatory activities and near-term research and development activities. This decline is consistent with changes made in recent years to carry out the administration's emphasis on the importance of private sector initiatives to provide for our energy needs. • The Department of the Treasury (—737).—Decreases will occur as a result of streamlining various departmental functions. These will be partially offset by increases in the Internal Revenue Service to administer provisions of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act. • General Services Administration (—564).—Decreases will occur agency-wide due to continuing management efficiencies. • Environmental Protection Agency (—477).—Reductions reflect increased operating efficiencies, accelerated delegation of environmental programs to states and completed regulatory activities. High priority enforcement and regulatory programs are fully supported. Some agencies show increases. • Department of Defense—Military Functions (21,101).—Increases are related to the nation's commitment to maintain an adequate, responsive defense posture. These increases are in readiness-related areas such as maintenance support, supply inventory control, medical care, weapons modernization programs, military construction, and sealift activities. The estimates shown in table 1-1 include amounts for planned contracting out of certain activities. If these plans are realized, the estimates would decrease by about 2,900 in 1983, 14,000 in 1984, and 26,500 in 1985. • Veterans Administration (1,894).—Additional staff will be used at new and modernized medical facilities, including six outpatient clinics, two nursing homes, and five replacement hospitals. • United States Information Agency (463).—This increase will improve the program quality of the Voice of America (VOA), begin a major expansion and improvement of VOA broadcast facilities, and, through a variety of activities, demonstrate to people abroad the vitality and benefits of democracy. • Department of State (418).—Additional staffing is needed for growing consular, passport, and administrative services workloads; enhanced worldwide communications and information systems; and additional reporting and analyses needs. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 END-OF-YEAR EMPLOYMENT LEVELS Another way to look at Federal employment is on the basis of the number of employees on the rolls at the end of a fiscal year. Total Federal civilian employment in the executive branch was 2,108,100 at the end of 1982, excluding 659,600 Postal Service employees. At the end of January 1981, when this administration took office, nondefense total employment stood at 1,232,181, and on September 30, 1982, the corresponding number was 1,140,903; a decrease of 91,278 employees. Table 1-2 shows Government-wide Federal civilian employment as of the end of fiscal years 1980, 1981, and 1982. Postal Service employment (including the Postal Rate Commission) is also shown, together with data for the legislative and judicial branches and for active duty military personnel. Table 1-2. TOTAL FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT END-OF-YEAR Description September 30 1980 actual 1981 actual 1982 actual 1,866,773 266,963 (916,293) (1,217,443) 1,851,045 264,949 (939,942) (1,176,052) 1,833,687 252,026 (944,810) (1,140,903) 2,133,736 2,115,994 2,085,713 535,050 125,035 543,504 119,664 546,019 113,602 660,085 663,168 659,621 27,535 26,963 22,400 2,821,356 2,806,125 2,767,734 2,050,127 39,375 2,082,183 39,819 2,108,612 38,248 Subtotal, military personnel 2,089,502 2,122,002 2,146,860 Total, executive branch employment 4,910,858 4,928,127 4,914,594 32,779 21,998 32,844 21,423 32,898 21,885 54,777 54,267 54,783 4,965,635 4,982,394 4,969,377 Civilian employment in the executive branch: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent DOD-Military functions (total employment) Non-DOD (total employment) Subtotal Postal Service: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal Special categories 1 Subtotal, executive branch civilian employment duty: 2 Military personnel on active Department of Defense Department of Transportation (Coast Guard) personnel:3 Legislative and judicial Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal, legislative and judicial branches Grand total Developmental positions under the Worker-Trainee Opportunity Program; disadvantaged summer and part-time workers under such Office of Personnel Management programs as Summer Aids, stay in school, and Junior Fellowship; and certain statutory exemptions. 2 Excludes reserve components. 3 Excludes members and officers of Congress. 1 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS Direct compensation of the Federal work force includes base pay, merit pay, cash incentive and performance awards, meritorious and distinguished executive awards, premium pay for overtime, Sunday and holiday pay, differentials for night work and overseas duty, and flight and other hazardous duty pay. Related compensation in the form of personnel benefits consists primarily of the Government's share (as employer) of health insurance, term life insurance, and Federal retirement and old-age survivors' disability and health insurance. Also included are personnel costs for uniform allowances (when paid in cash), cost-of-living and overseas quarters allowances, and, in the case of military personnel, reenlistment bonuses. This budget assumes no October 1983 pay increase for Federal white and blue collar workers and military personnel. The final decision on the level of the fiscal year 1984 pay increase will be made in the late summer, as the law provides, after Presidential review of the recommendations of the President's Pay Agent, the Federal Employees Pay Council and the Advisory Committee on Federal Pay, and after a review of the economic conditions prevailing then. Legislation is proposed in the 1984 Budget to reform certain aspects of the civil service retirement system: • Annuity adjustment for retirement prior to age 65.—To be phased in over a period of 10 years; employees age 55 or over at enactment would not be affected. • Cost-of-living adjustments (COLA).—The cost-of-living adjustment would be eliminated for 1984. Further, current law limits COLA adjustments to one half of the CPI (for retirees under age 62) through 1985. This change would be made permanent. • Increased employee deductions for retirement.—Employee retirement deductions would increase from 7 to 9% in 1984, and to 11% in 1985. • Increased employer contributions for retirement.—Employer contributions for retirement would also increase to match the increase in employee deductions described above. This would include the U.S. Postal Service and the District of Columbia government. • Annuity calculations to be based on the highest 5 years of earnings.—The current calculation base is the highest 3 years; employees within 3 years of retirement eligibility would not be affected. • Modify replacement rates.—Currently, a formula is used that determines the percentage of salary that is replaced by retirement benefits. For example, the replacement rate is now SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 56.25% of the final 3 years' salary for 30 years of service. This proposal would alter this formula to reduce the replacement rate, if necessary, in conjunction with other proposals, to reduce the normal cost of the system to 22% of payroll and enable employee contributions to be limited to 11% of salary. Additional details concerning these proposals may be found in Part 5 of the 1984 Budget of the United States. As indicated in table 1-3, obligations for civilian personnel compensation and benefits in 1984 are projected to reach $65 billion, excluding the Postal Service. Table 1-3. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS [In millions of dollars] Description 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Civilian personnel costs: Executive branch: 1 Direct compensation Personnel benefits 2 DOD-Military functions, civilian personnel: Direct compensation Personnel benefits 49,624 9,265 52,417 10,428 53,094 10,790 (21,846) (2,281) (22,720) (2,659) (23,299) (3,277) 58,889 62,845 62,935 912 91 990 111 1,027 118 1,003 1,101 1,145 59,892 63,946 65,029 37,020 3,007 39,311 3,238 40,712 3,591 Total, military pay costs 40,027 42,549 44,303 Grand total, personnel costs 99,919 106,495 109,332 Subtotal judiciary:3 Legislative and Direct compensation Personnel benefits 3 Subtotal Total, civilian personnel costs Military personnel costs:5 Direct compensation Personnel benefits 6 Excludes the Postal Service, reflecting conversion to independent status, consistent with the Postal Service Reorganization Act of 1970. 2 In addition to the employing agency's contributions for the costs of life and health insurance, retirement, and effective in calendar year 1983 Medicare Hospital Insurance, this amount includes transfers from general revenues to amortize the effects of general pay increases on Federal retirement systems, for employees in the legislative and judicial branches as well as employees (nonpostal) in the executive branch. The transfers amounted to $3,600 million in 1982 and are estimated to be $3,941 million in 1983 and $3,908 million in 1984. 3 Excludes members and officers of Congress. 4 Excludes reserve components. 5 Excludes payments to current military retirees which amounted to $14,941 million in 1982 and are estimated to be $16,155 million in 1983 and $16,806 million in 1984. 1 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE COMPARISONS As shown on the following chart, Government employment— Federal, State, and local—will comprise about 15.9% of the total employed civilian labor force in 1982. Within this segment, Federal civilian employment in the executive branch accounts for 2.78% of the total employed civilian labor force in 1982, down from a high of 3.82% in 1968. The percentage of the total employed civilian labor force attributable to State and local government has grown from 9.6% in 1962 to 13.2% in 1982. Years * Executive Branch SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F- 55 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION COMPARISONS As illustrated in the following chart and in table 1-4, the Federal share of total government employment has declined significantly over the last three decades, from 38.4% in 1952 to an estimated 17.4% in 1982. Employment for all government had been rising steadily due to increases in State and local government employment, but began declining in 1981. The ratio of Federal civilian employment to the total U.S. population is expected to be 11.9 per thousand in 1982, the lowest this ratio has been during the thirty year span shown. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table 1-4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION, 1 9 5 2 - 8 2 Government employment Fiscal year 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 2 1961 2 1962 1963 3 1964 3 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 4 1970 2 1971 2 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 5 1978 1979 1980 2 1981 2 1982 Federal executive branch 1 (thousands) 2,574 2,532 2,382 2,371 2,372 2,391 2,355 2,355 2,371 2,407 2,485 2,490 2,469 2,496 2,664 2,877 2,951 2,980 2,944 2,883 2,823 2,775 2,847 2,848 2,832 2,789 2,820 2,823 2,821 2,787 2,768 Population State and local governments (thousands) All governmental units (thousands) Federal as percent of all governmental units Total United States (thousands) 4,134 4,282 4,552 4,728 5,064 5,380 5,630 5,806 6,073 6,295 6,533 6,834 7,236 7,683 8,259 8,730 9,141 9,496 9,869 10,372 10,896 11,286 11,713 12,114 12,282 12,704 13,050 13,359 13,557 13,281 13,123 6,708 6,814 6,934 7,099 7,436 7,771 7,985 8,161 8,444 8,702 9,018 9,324 9,705 10,179 10,923 11,607 12,092 12,476 12,813 13,255 13,719 14,061 14,560 14,962 15,114 15,493 15,870 16,182 16,378 16,068 15,891 38.4 37.2 34.4 33.4 31.9 30.8 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.7 25.4 24.5 24.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.0 21.8 20.6 19.7 19.6 19.0 18.7 18.0 17.8 17.4 17.2 17.4 17.4 157,553 160,184 163,026 165,931 168,903 171,984 174,882 177,830 180,671 183,691 186,538 189,242 191,889 194,303 196,560 198,712 200,706 202,677 205,052 207,661 209,896 211,909 213,854 215,973 218,035 220,904 223,278 225,779 6 228,298 6 230,479 6 232,634 Federal employment per 1,000 population 16.3 15.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.8 13.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.1 11.9 1 Covers total end-of-year employment of full-time permanent, temporary, part-time, and intermittent employees in the executive branch, including the Postal Service, and, beginning in 1970, includes various disadvantaged youth and worker-trainee programs. 2 Includes temporary employees for the decennial census. 3 Excludes 7,411 project employees in 1963 and 406 project employees in 1964 for the public works acceleration program. 4 On Jan. 1, 1969, 42,000 civilian technicians of the Army and Air Force National Guard converted by law from State to Federal employment status. They are included in the Federal employment figures in this table starting with 1969. 5 Data for 1952 through 1976 are as of June 30; for 1977 through 1982, as of Sept. 30. 6 U.S. population data for 1980-1982 are the latest available from the Census Bureau. PART 3 SELECTED FEDERAL PROGRAMS INTRODUCTION Part 3 furnishes Government-wide program and financial information in selected program areas—civil rights and research and development, designated J and K. Special Analysis J (Civil Rights Activities) summarizes Federal spending for civil rights activities, concentrating on compliance, investigation, and enforcement efforts. Special Analysis K (Research and Development) identifies Federal programs for the conduct of research and development, and for the support of facilities related to such activities. 3-2 SPECIAL ANALYSIS H CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVITIES TO GIVE SUBSTANCE TO AMERICA'S COMMITMENT. . . "The battle against discrimination still goes on, and much remains to be done. But in a single generation, an entire Nation recommitted itself to the cause of equal rights and used the full force of law to ban once and for all racial bias in public education, in hiring, and in the voting booth. Nowhere does history offer a parallel to this vast undertaking . . —PRESIDENT REAGAN, March 23, 1982 Coverage and scope.—Equality of individual rights and opportunity are central to the American idea. Our national commitment to assuring that these rights and opportunities apply equally to all Americans has come to be embodied in approximately 130 Federal statutes, in addition to the guarantees set forth in the Constitution itself. These provisions address such basic areas as employment, housing, education, access to credit and public accommodations; as well as voting, jury service and other rights and responsibilities of citizenship. They prohibit discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or handicap. The Federal involvement in implementing these statutes is broad: each of the 107 separate Federal agencies is responsible for assuring nondiscrimination in its own activities, and 37 agencies have some civil rights enforcement responsibilities. Since the first OMB Civil Rights Special Analysis was published in 1971, Federal expenditures for civil rights programs have grown apace.1 While a reflection of America's commitment to civil rights, this growth was in past years too frequently regarded as the exclusive measure of its implementation. By 1981, it had become clear that: —Among the 130 Federal civil rights statutes, there was substantial duplication. This multiplied the number of agencies 1 There have been corresponding refinements in the data included in Special Analyses. In 1981, OMB completed a major revision of the requirements for agency reporting of civil rights data which eliminated the practice of reporting, as civil rights outlays, expenditures for such purposes as general management costs not directly related to implementing civil rights requirements, and agency training and upward mobility costs not attributable to the Federal Equal Opportunity Recruitment Program or other equal employment opportunity requirements. The reporting schedule was also modified to assure that data for the previous year included actual data for all four quarters of the fiscal year. While the elimination of extraneous expenditures has increased the accuracy with which successive Special Analysis outlay figures depict the Federal Government's commitment of resources to civil rights, these refinements reduced the comparability of the published figures (e.g., the Defense Department reported that the deletion of general upward mobility expenditures alone reduced its total reported civil rights expenditures for 1981 by $23.2 million dollars). To correct this problem, previous year figures used in this Special Analysis reflect, insofar as possible, only expenditures for those activities considered in this Special Analysis. J-1 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 charged with eliminating discrimination, but diminished their collective effectiveness in doing so as resources were squandered in fruitless competition for jurisdiction. —As the result of neglect or misguided paternalism, "civil rights" activities in too many agencies became a synonym for mismanagement and inefficiency not tolerated in line functions. And also for staff bickering: At times, an agency's highest incidence of discrimination complaints could be found in its civil rights office. —Several enforcement efforts were structurally flawed: their regulations were confusing and difficult to comply with; they continued to devote resources to clearly ineffectual procedures or to problems long since corrected.2 —Some civil rights programs had strayed from the very principles they were intended to secure, subordinating their difficult mandate of assuring nondiscrimination to the administrative expedience of quotas. As these expedients were frequently as poorly executed as they were conceived, they doubly injured their intended beneficiaries: by creating the appearance of preference, while at the same time denying essential protections against discrimination. This administration has devoted serious attention both to the management of these programs and to our examination of their moral underpinnings. In all Federal civil rights programs, such attention has reasserted the fundamental principle of equal treatment for all individuals, without regard to their race, sex, color, religion, national origin, or condition of disability. For several, it has focused overdue attention on longstanding management problems. The analysis which follows reflects that attention and its seriousness: implicitly, in its emphasis on the improvements which have already been secured; and explicitly in its assessment of the problems which remain to be overcome. Perspectives on Federal civil rights outlays In 1960, the Federal Government spent $1.7 million for civil rights purposes. These expenditures were concentrated in the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights and the Departments of Justice and Labor. The first Civil Rights Special Analysis published by OMB reported that expenditures for such purposes had grown to $189.7 million in 1971. In 1980, Federal civil rights expenditures reached $512.6 million. Agencies spent $567.6 million on civil rights activities in 1982 and, given enactment of the President's proposed budget, agencies will spend an estimated $634.1 million on these activities in 1984. 2 A more detailed discussion of these structural management, and regulatory problems can be found on pp. 1 9, Special Analysis J: Civil Rights Activities, Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, 1983. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table J - 1 . FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS*, 1980-1984 (In millions of dollars) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (actual) (actual) (actual) (estimated) (proposed). 512.6 543.4 567.6 607.2 634.1 *Total outlays reported by Federal agencies for activities reflected in current reporting base. One of the agencies which reported in 1980 (the Community Services Administration) has since been abolished. Due to improved reporting, several smaller Federal entities which did not report in 1980 have reported in subsequent years. Equivalent figures covering only agencies reporting in each of the years covered by this table are: 1980, 512.1; 1981, 541.6; 1982, 566.8; 1983, 606.3; 1984, 633.2. As emphasized in the discussion above, however, the increased expenditures effected and proposed by this Administration are not a mere reflection of a longstanding trend: —Not simply in their magnitude but in the context of the overall budget itself, they represent a substantial increase in the priority accorded civil rights. Such increases are striking and indicative of real support in the current budgetary context, in contrast to increases in past years when all discretionary expenditures were rising. —The increases proposed by the President represent realistic commitments, not inflated promises. In 1982, actual civil rights outlays by Federal agencies substantially exceeded estimates.3 This represents a sharp departure from past, grossly inflated projections. —This Administration is committed not simply to spending money on civil rights, but to securing them. Civil rights programs have been judged on their merits, and not treated as the budgetary equivalents of "sacred cows" to be increased or maintained on a quota basis (only to be ignored during the remainder of the year). As this analysis will demonstrate, expenditures for some civil rights4 programs have been increased, some decreased, and many maintained at current levels. In instances where additional savings at no loss in protections remain to be achieved, this analysis does not hesitate to identify them. 3 The agencies represented in the FY 1983 Special Analysis estimated that they would spend a total of $562.7 million on civil rights activities during 1982 and actually spent over $4 million more, a total of $566.8 million (the estimate figure reflects corrections in figures for DOD and HUD while the actual expenditure figure excludes agencies who reported this year but not last year; without these corrections, the difference would be $40 million). Most previous estimates have substantially exceeded actual expenditures. For example, the equivalent estimate for 1979 was $555.6 million, but acutal reported expenditures were $469.1 million—over $86 million less. 4 Includes Federal efforts to assure: protection of basic constitutional and civil rights, nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs and activities, equal employment opportunity, fair housing, equal credit; as well as civil rights related research activities. H-10 T H E BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 T a b l e J - 2 — O U T L A Y S FOR P R I N C I P A L C I V I L R I G H T S E N F O R C E M E N T A G E N C I E S (In millions of dollars) Actual 1980 Civil R i g h t s D i v i s i o n ( D O J ) Equal E m p l o y m e n t O p p o r t u n i t y C o m m i s s i o n O f f i c e o f Fair H o u s i n g a n d Equal O p p o r t u n i t y ( H U D ) 1981 1982 Estimate 1983 Proposed 1984 25.6 14.5 16.7 17.2 18.6 130.8 134.2 137.6 147 153 18.4 21.7 24.6 34.1 30.4 O f f i c e f o r Civil R i g h t s : Health a n d H u m a n Services * 19.3 19.1 19.6 19.6 Education * 43.3 45.3 44.3 44.6 Total* 58.8 62.6 64.4 63.9 64.2 50.6 48.1 42.5 43.8 47.4 O f f i c e o f Federal Contract C o m p l i a n c e P r o g r a m s ( D O L ) * These offices were one until 1980, and reliable data for that year is available only on a total basis. Education activities will be proposed for reassignment to appropriate executive departments and agencies pursuant to reorganization legislation to be submitted at a later date. PROTECTING THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS OF ALL CITIZENS . . T h e record s h o w s t h a t w e ' v e b e e n firm in protecting civil liberties ever since w e entered office 2 0 m o n t h s ago . . . In 1888, Frederick D o u g l a s s ex- pressed [our] c o m m i t m e n t [:] ' A g o v e r n m e n t t h a t can give liberty in its Constitution o u g h t to h a v e power to protect liberty in its administration'."—PRESIDENT REAGAN, S e p t e m b e r 15, 1982 The Constitution and laws of the United States guarantee to each individual the right to security in one's person and property, and to the free exercise of the fundamental rights of citizenship. These guarantees, which apply irrespective of an individual's religion, national origin, race, color, or sex are the most important of civil rights, for they are basic to all others. During 1982, the Administration continued to restore emphasis to this most fundamental area of Federal civil rights responsibility. The Department of Justice is primarily responsible for assuring these protections. In addition to the guarantees embodied in the Constitution itself, the Department enforces: —Title 18 of the United States Code, which prohibits deprivations of rights and privileges guaranteed under the Constitution of the laws of the United States, including 18 U.S.C. 241 (conspiracy against the rights of citizens), 18 U.S.C. 242 (deprivation of rights under color of law), 18 U.S.C. 245 (interference with federally protected rights), 18 U.S.C. 1581 (prohibition against peonage), 18 U.S.C. 1584 (prohibition against involuntary servitude). —42 U.S.C. 3631, which prohibits interference with housing rights. —30 other civil rights criminal statutes (in addition to those cited above). —The Voting Rights Act of 1965, as amended (42 U.S.C. 1973 et seq.) and the Overseas Citizens Voting Rights Act (42 U.S.C. 1973 dd) which guarantees all qualified citizens the right to SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 register and vote without discrimination on account of race, color, membership in a language minority group, age, or absence from legal residence). —The Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act of 1980 (42 U.S.C. 1997), which prohibits deprivations of the constitutional rights of institutionalized persons. During 1982, the Department of Justice's Federal Bureau of Investigation completed 7,983 investigations involving alleged violations of these fundamental rights, and the Bureau expects to perform in excess of 10,000 such investigations per year through 1984. Other components of the Department of Justice completed 3,600 investigations of such violations in 1982, and the Department expects this number to increase to 3,800 in 1984. The Bureau devoted $8.1 million and the equivalent of 189 full time professional personnel (FTE's) to these investigations in 1982. The President's request for 1984 provides for outlays of $11.5 million for the Bureau's efforts to assure these essential protections. The Department's attorneys were equally active in enforcing these guarantees in 1982. The Criminal Section of the Department's Civil Rights Division is responsible for prosecuting criminal civil rights violations. During 1982, the section reviewed approximately 3,200 matters which had been investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and approximately 7,100 other inquiries and complaints, and presented the results of 81 investigations to Federal grand juries. As a result, fifty indictments were returned and six informations were filed charging a total of 98 defendants. Trials were conducted in 43 cases, resulting in the conviction of 23 defendants. An additional 25 defendants tendered guilty pleas. U.S. Attorneys throughout the United States also prosecute such violations, and during 1982, the Department as a whole initiated prosecutions of 193 individuals for such violations, obtained 76 guilty pleas and 27 convictions. Also during 1982, the Criminal Section was particularly active in assuring that civil rights were not abused by government officials sworn to protect them. Forty-three of the 56 cases filed involved possible violations of 18 U.S.C. 242 (deprivation of rights under color of law) or Section 241 (conspiracy against the rights of citizens). Law enforcement officials were defendants in 34 of the 43 cases tried. Examples of cases successfully prosecuted by the Section in 1982 were those involving: —a Hildago, Texas, police officer who arranged for the kidnapping of a U.S. citizen into Mexico; —two former police officers and a civilian in Tyler, Texas, involved in a conspiracy to fabricate evidence and testimony in State proceedings; 380-700 0 - 83 - 20 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 —civil rights violations stemming from an incident where two inmates in Louisiana died after being locked up for 15 hours in a 32" x 70" x 78" metal "hot box." —the sexual abuse of two female Mexican aliens by two border patrol officers. The section also secured the indictment of 17 persons alleged to have held individuals in involuntary servitude or peonage, a dramatic increase over previous years: Table J - 3 . INDIVIDUALS INDICTED UNDER STATUTES PROHIBITING PEONAGE AND INVOLUNTARY SERVITUDE Fiscal year— 198 0 198 1 198 2 5 1 17 Speaking in 1981 the President served notice on persons and terrorist groups bent on violating the civil rights of individuals that " . . . this country, because of what it stands for, will not stand for your conduct. My administration will vigorously investigate and prosecute those who, by violence or intimidation, would attempt to deny Americans their constitutional rights". During 1982, the Civil Rights Division continued to be especially active in redeeming the President's pledge. The eight cases it brought against fourteen defendants, involved a wide range of violence and intimidation: including crossburning, vandalism, firebombings, and physical attacks. Through 1984, the Civil Rights Division will increase the impact of the resources it devotes to criminal civil rights prosecutions by engaging in more joint prosecutions with local U.S. Attorneys. This combination of the former's specialized expertise and the latter's familiarity with local court practices will deliver, with even greater force, a national response to those who would ignore the President's warning. The Department's Community Relations Service was involved in efforts to defuse racial, religious, and ethnic tensions before they give rise to such denials of rights. The Service's activities during 1982, in cooperation with State and local officials, addressed the entire spectrum of such unrest, including: racially motivated acts with the potential for denying equal housing opportunity in California or free access to Federal parks in Massachusetts; tensions involving Haitian or Indo-Chinese refugees in Florida, Puerto Rico, Texas, and Minnesota; the activities of the Ku Klux Klan and other hate groups in West Virginia and Connecticut. The Civil Rights of Institutionalized Persons Act of 1980 was designed to provide the Federal Government standing to sue in SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 cases of severe deprivations of the rights of institutionalized individuals. The Civil Rights Division's Special Litigation Section is primarily responsible for the Justice's enforcement of this Act. During 1982, the Section completed 21 investigations of alleged violations of the Act. Six trials in which the Section participated were completed, and all resulted in decisions sustaining the Government's position. In all, the Section obtained 13 consent decrees and court orders enjoining violations of the Act, including: an order in Puerto Rico prosecuting practices of confining mentally handicapped or physically ill inmates in isolation and subjecting juveniles to physical abuse; and an order requiring that female inmates in Kentucky prisons be accorded the same treatment as male inmates. The President has frequently described the right to vote as the "crown jewel of our liberties". To assure that statutory protections of this right are maintained and strengthened, the President signed the Voting Rights Amendments of 1982 into law on June 29, 1982. This legislation incorporated the longest extension of the Act's provisions since its passage in 1965, as well as new language considerably expanding the protections afforded by the Act. As a result of the Administration's efforts, the Act did not include language, included in earlier versions of the legislation, which could have been interpreted to require proportional representation based on race or national origin. In addition, the Department of Justice was particularly active in enforcing the Voting Rights Act and similar statutes during 1982. The Civil Rights Division's Voting Rights Section initiated participation in 13 cases. Six concerned whether statewide redisricting plans denied or abridged the right of minorities to vote in California, Georgia, Mississippi, New York, and Texas; one involved the redistricting for the city council in Chicago; two sought to enforce objections under Section 5 in local jurisdictions; two opposed changes to at-large elections in South Carolina counties; and, two involved attempts by individual counties to terminate the coverage under the special provisions of the Voting Rights Act. Over 2,800 submissions of more than 13,300 voting changes were received under Section 5 of the Act, more than any previous year of the Act's existence, and 41 objections were made to submitted changes including 15 objections to 24 statewide redisticting plans for more than one legislative body. A total of 799 Federal observers were assigned to five elections in three states, including the largest number of observers ever assigned to a single election in the State of Alabama. In addition, 139 persons were listed (registered) by Federal examiners who were appointed to two counties in Georgia, the first time since 1975 that Federal examiners have been used to register voters under Section 7 of the Act. The Section also distrib- H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 uted 2,500 copies of publications designed to assist local officials and citizens in their voluntary efforts to assure compliance with the Voting Rights Act. The President's Budget provides for a substantial increase in resources devoted to the task of assuring that the Presidential election of 1984 is conducted in full compliance with the Voting Rights Act and other Federal guarantees of the right to vote: Table J - 4 . FEDERAL RESOURCES DEVOTED TO VOTING RIGHTS ENFORCEMENT Actual Department of Justice-. Outlays (millions) Professional FTE's Office of Personnel Management: Outlays (millions) Professional FTE's Estimate 1983 Proposed 1984 1981 1982 2.48 44 2.52 42 2.66 45 3.18 61 .3 10.2 1.0 20 20 .8 1.1 26 In addition to the Department of Justice, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) provides observers to monitor compliance with the Voting Rights Act. During 1982, OPM assigned 937 observers to 2 elections. During 1984, OPM expects to assign 1,350 observers to 10 elections in furtherance of the President's commitment to assure that the "crown jewel of America's liberties" is not withheld from the grasp of any American on the basis of race, color, or membership in a language minority group. TO ROOT OUT DISCRIMINATION BY GOVERNMENT " M y administration will root out any case of government discrimination . . . we will not retreat on the Nation's commitment to equal treatment of all citizens."—PRESIDENT REAGAN, J u n e 29, 1 9 8 1 If government is to "assure liberty in its administration", it is fundamental that government itself must not discriminate either in its mandates or their execution. During 1982, the Administration continued efforts initiated in 1981 to eliminate invidious discrimination based on sex from the statutes and regulations of the Federal Government itself, and to assist States in their efforts to eliminate such provisions from their own mandates. It also continued efforts to identify and eliminate impediments to assuring nondiscrimination in the provision of federally assisted services and benefits. Eliminating invidious sex discrimination from Government mandates.-^ Aware that discrimination may too frequently be traced to the mandates of Government itself the President moved swiftly to address the problem. Pursuant to these efforts: —Executive Order 12336, establishing the Task Force on Legal Equity for Women, was issued. The Task Force is responsible SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 for identifying, in the regulations of every Federal agency, provisions that mandate invidious discrimination based on sex. —The Department of Justice reviewed Federal statutes to identify similar provisions. —The Fifty States Project was initiated. This is a cooperative effort to help every State and territory identify and eliminate statutory provisions that discriminate against women. —A Coordinating Council on Women was organized in the White House to assure that Federal actions having a particular impact on women are properly addressed by the administration. Although the task is large and multifaceted, the first fruits of this effort are already apparent. Omnibus legislation was introduced in the Ninety-seventh Congress to eliminate sexually discriminatory provisions identified by the Department of Justice from the United States Code. Nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs.—Since the Federal Government is supported by taxes levied on citizens without discrimination, it is fundamental that activities it funds must be conducted without discrimination. This principle is embodied in a substantial body of legislation including in addition to numerous program-specific statutory provisions prohibiting discrimination: —Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination in all federally assisted programs and activities based on race, color, or national origin. —Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 prohibits discrimination based on sex in federally assisted educational programs and activities. —The Age Discrimination Act of 1975 prohibits discrimination based on age in all federally assisted programs and activities. —Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 prohibits discrimination on the basis of handicap in all federally assisted programs and activities. As the Administration has previously noted,5 several problems have diminished the effectiveness of efforts to assure that programs and activities assisted with Federal funds are open to all without discrimination. Some are inherent in the piecemeal manner in which the statutes were enacted: —The absence of crosscutting provisions prohibiting federally assisted programs and activities from discriminating based on religion. —A similar absence of protection against discrimination based on sex, except in federally assisted education activities. 5 Pp. 10-15, Special Analysis J: Civil Rights Activities. Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, 1983. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Others result primarily from the manner in which enforcement of these protections has been organized and administered. The frequency with which agency staffs have actually identified and eliminated discrimination is disturbingly rare—largely because this fundamental statutory mission has been subordinated to the pursuit of other agendas, or to agencies' self-interest in continuing to provide assistance. Deficiencies in the way enforcement resources have been allocated and applied have also played a substantial role: —The allocation of overall enforcement resources has frequently failed to reflect the actual incidence of discrimination in the various federally assisted programs. —Largely as a consequence of this fundamental problem, agency enforcement often emphasized technical trivia or focused on areas such as equal employment which other agencies were designated (and more qualified) to address; many recipients were reviewed and investigated by several agencies while the practices of others were never examined; and enforcement of these statutes was frequently hampered by nonproductive reporting and other paperwork burdens. To address the problem of lack of consistent protections against discrimination based on religion or sex, the Administration proposed the inclusion of protections against discrimination on these grounds in several titles of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981. As a result, for example, all of the Block Grants administered by the Department of Health and Human Services include such prohibitions. In addition, the Administration has included these protections in legislation that would implement Block Grants in other areas. Congressional passage of these proposals would extend basic protections against discrimination to many Americans.6 During 1982, the Administration also continued the more difficult task of restoring substance to the existing nondiscrimination guarantees. When the "Infant Doe" case 7 made it apparent that an untold number of infants with disabilities were being denied the care and treatment necessary to sustain life, the President acted quickly. Noting that "Our nation's commitment to equal protection of the law will have little meaning if we deny such protection to those who have not been blessed with the same physical and 6 As a matter of policy, the Administration has consistently moved to address such gaps in civil rights protection through permanent legislation. This is because attempts to address them through reinterpretation of Congressional mandates, be they administrative (e.g., with regard to tax exemptions for discriminatory institutions) or judicial (as some have urged the Administration to seek with regard to the coverage of title IX) are never secure, as they may as easily be withdrawn through the same processes. The past tendency to avoid legislative choices on civil rights issues (or, as in the case of employment quotas under title VII, to ignore choices clearly made) has too frequently resulted in policies untempered by a full consideration of equally valid concerns, or lacking the popular consensus required for success in a democratic society. 7 A highly publicized incident in which a child with disabilities born in Bloomington, Indiana died as the result of the denial of life saving care. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 mental gifts we too often take for granted", the President instructed the Attorney General and Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) to take immediate steps to notify hospitals receiving Federal funds that Section 504's prohibitions against discrimination in the provision of services most definitely apply to those services necessary to save and sustain lives. HHS's Office for Civil Rights has adopted expedited complaint procedures to assure timely and effective intervention in such cases, and is examining hospitals' practices in this area during routine compliance reviews. Also during 1982, the Department of Justice's Office of Justice Assistance and Research (OJARS) initiated the first fund termination action to enforce section 504 in the history of that statute. OJARS was ultimately able to negotiate a settlement of this matter, which involved alleged discrimination on the basis of handicap by a State Department of Corrections. The Administration also continued the sensitive process of reviewing the existing Government-wide coordination regulations for section 504 to improve their consistency and to reflect recent Supreme Court decisions.8 This process has included extensive consultations with representatives of persons with disabilities, State and local governments and other recipients of Federal assistance. Administrative enforcement of the other crosscutting provisions similarly reflected the Administration's emphasis on returning to the basics of nondiscrimination enforcement. The Department of Agriculture, for example, concluded agreements designed to eliminate illegal segregation in the activities of two State Cooperative Extension Services. This year, the Department is addressing allegations of similar illegal segregation in a third. Substantial improvements were also effected in the largest of the agency enforcement programs. The Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights (OCR) undertook a wide range of reforms designed to improve methods for allocating work and measuring performance, reduce the amount of resources wasted on duplicative or otherwise unnecessary paperwork, and eliminate unnecessary levels of management review. The Office also moved to streamline compliance procedures by implementing the Early . Complaint Resolution procedure. This procedure affords complainants and recipients an opportunity to resolve many complaints voluntarily before costly investigations are initiated. This year, OCR will explore ways in which the involvement of States in assuring compliance with the nondiscrimination requirements it enforces can be en- 8 E.g., Davis v. Southeastern Community College (U2 U.S. 397 (1979)), in which the Court ruled that section 504 does not forbid the requirement of reasonable physical qualifications for admission to a program, and that regulations under section 504 are unauthorized to the extent that they require modifications in a recipients program beyond what is necessary to eliminate discrimination against an "otherwise qualified handicapped individual". See also University of Texas v. Cameniseh (451 U.S. 390 (1981)). H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table J - 5 . OUTLAYS BY MAJOR ACTIVITY, ENFORCEMENT OF NONDISCRIMINATION IN FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS 1 [In millions of dollars] Actual 1982 Activity: Mediation Complaint resolution Preaward reviews Compliance reviews and routine monitoring Research,1 information dissemination, and technical assistance Legal and administrative enforcement: Department of Justice All other agencies Monitoring of consent decrees and compliance agreements: Department of Justice Department of Education All other agencies Policy development and implementation2 Interagency coordination: Health and Human Services (Age Discrimination Act).... Justice (all other statutes) Estimated 1983 .02 30.9 4.3 19.1 8.5 .05 32.3 4.1 21.3 8.7 .58 .63 1.63 1.6 .24 1.56 .7 15.3 .09 2.2 .26 1.6 .6 16.8 .14 2.3 1 Includes expenditures of enforcement agencies only (research activities by the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights in this area are reported separately). Outlays for equal employment activities under title VI and similar statutes, to the extent they are identifiable, are reported in the section dealing with equal employment enforcement. 2 Includes expenditures for developing regulations and procedures, training program staff, internal program audit and evaluation activities, and similar purposes. hanced, identifying States with substantially equivalent laws and the capacity to undertake civil rights compliance activities.9 As a result of these and other management improvements, the Office reduced its workload of pending complaints by 27% and (in a marked departure from past years) kept well ahead of its incoming workload: during 1982, the Office for Civil Rights received 1,834 new complaints—and completed processing of 2,256. The Office also made progress in eliminating backlog and "carryover" complaints from past years: closing 1982 with 11 backlog and 69 carryover complaints (compared with 25 and 113, respectively, at the end of 1981). In addition, the Office initiated 36% more compliance reviews, and completed 16% more, than during the previous year. As discussed above, however, the most serious problems historically presented by this area of civil rights enforcement transcend individual agencies. The Department of Justice, under Executive Order 12250, is primarily10 responsible for addressing those crosscutting problems. The exceptional dispersal of responsibility in this area (even when only the major crosscutting statutes coordinated 'Federal enforcement of title VI and similar requirements is one of the few major areas of civil rights enforcement which does not currently use the capabilities of State and local agencies to assist in assuring nondiscrimination. Such involvement has long been an essential feature of title VII enforcement, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has rapidly expanded the involvement of such agenices in enforcing the Fair Housing Act. See below. 10 The Age Discrimination Act, for which coordination responsibility is assigned by statute to the Department of Health and Human Services, is the only exception. Most enforcement of the Age Discrimination Act is centralized. Under procedures funded by HHS, agenices forward all complaints under this Act to the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, which resolves most of those complaints through mediation. F SPECIAL ANALYSIS F- 55 by the Department of Justice are considered11 renders responsibility particularly difficult: Table J - 6 . DISPERSION OF ENFORCEMENT AUTHORITY UNDER STATUTES REQUIRING NONDISCRIMINATION IN FEDERALLY ASSISTED PROGRAMS Number of enforcement agencies Statute Title VI, Civil Rights Act of 1964 Section 504, Rehabilitation Act of 1973 Title IX, Education Act Amendments of 1972 37 all 28 Both this dispersal, and the resources devoted to enforcing these statutes, are expanding: Table J - 7 . OUTLAYS AND PROFESSIONAL WORKYEARS FOR ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES, NONDISCRIMINATION IN PROVISION OF FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS Actual 1982 1981 18 77 Agencies Outlays (millions) 20 85.5 Estimate 1983 21 88.4 Proposed 1984 21 89.4 The Department of Justice has the difficult task of assuring that these increases are not dissipated in procedures which are poorly implemented or no longer serve a useful purpose. Traditional preaward review procedures seem particularly ripe for reappraisal. As noted below, in 1981 only about 2% of the preaward reviews conducted by all agencies resulted in finding any deficiencies requiring correction before assistance could be awarded—and fewer than % of 1% of these activities resulted in identifying and correcting any discriminatory practices. In 1982, which saw substantially more preaward review activity, the percentage of noncompliance findings of all kinds fell to 1.8%, and the percentage resulting in correction of discriminatory practices to only % of 1%. That this further deterioration was accompanied by a substantial increase in reported preawards conducted exclusively through desk audits (reviews of written material submitted by applicants) suggests that this is a particularly questionable use of resources. Table J - 8 . PREAWARD REVIEWS AND RESULTS: NONDISCRIMINATION IN PROVISION OF FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS 1 Actual 1981 Agencies Outlays (millions) 10 2.75 1982 12 4.3 Estimate Proposed 1983 1984 13 4.1 13 4.7 " T h e Department of Justice also coordinates the enforcement of numerous program-specific statutes requiring nondiscrimination. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table J - 8 . PREAWARD REVIEWS AND RESULTS: NONDISCRIMINATION IN PROVISION OF FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS '—Continued Actual 1981 Professional FTE's Total preawards completed Onsite Desk audit only Compliance findings 1 Noncompliance findings 1 Total awards conditioned on corrective action Noncompliance findings involving discrimination Number of corrective action agreements resolving discrimination Estimate 1982 76 15,953 6,150 9,803 13,980 332 322 56 54 74 30,795 4,124 26,671 30,238 557 547 69 61 1983 64 24,784 4,056 20,728 NA NA NA NA NA 1 Ability or inability of a potential recipient to comply with nondiscrimination requirements without additional action. Total numbers of findings do not equal total reviews because some agencies use preawards only for targeting postaward activity. Moreover, in 1981 all noncompliance findings of any kind were made by only three of the 10 agencies conducting preaward reviews—and all discrimination findings by only two. Seven agencies which reported conducting 14,613 preaward reviews (at a cost of $1.8 million) found no deficiencies of any kind, and eight spent $2 million on preawards without a single one resulting in the correction of any discriminatory practices. While more agencies reported that they identified deficiencies (mostly technical) during preaward reviews during 1982, two agencies which reported that they had conducted preaward reviews of all recipients of new assistance (constituting 50% of preaward reviews reported by the Federal Government as a whole) found no deficiencies of any kind—at a cost of over half a million dollars and 14 professional FTE's. And agencies that corrected no discrimination as a result of preawards spend $1.2 million on that activity. Postaward review procedures, or the manner in which they are implemented, appear equally in need of reappraisal: Table J - 9 . POSTAWARD REVIEWS AND RESULTS: NONDISCRIMINATION IN PROVISION OF FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS Actual 1981 Agencies Outlays (millions) Professional FTE's Total completed Onsite Desk audit only Compliance findings Noncompliance findings Noncompliance findings involving discrimination Number of corrective action agreements resolving discrimination 1.3 13.4 386 12,451 8,389 4,062 12,076 375 196 134 1982 14 17.6 422 1 27,355 14,867 1 12,488 26,856 499 313 311 Estimate Proposed 1983 1984 17 19.5 435 14,658 12,976 1,682 NA NA NA NA 16 20.3 434 14,266 12,605 1,661 NA NA NA NA 1 12,310 of these reviews were reported by the Small Business Administration (SBA), which attributed the extraordinarily large number to the completion of work completed in previous years. 11,738 of the reviews reported were desk audits based on a reporting requirement which has since been disapproved by OMB. As a result, the number of desk audits will decrease in 1983 and 1984 to 1,000—but the number of onsite reviews will increase from 572 in 1982 to 800 in each year. Of the reviews SBA reports it completed in 1982 (at a cost of $1.4 million), none resulted in finding noncompliance of any kind. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Even when the problematic SBA desk audits are subtracted, the rate at which even routine reviews resulted in the correction of illegal discrimination was a disappointing two percent. While the thesis that administratively targeted reviews are more likely to identify and resolve discrimination than complaint investigations has become part of the conventional wisdom 12 in civil rights enforcement, this would not appear to be the case in this area: Table J - 1 0 . INVESTIGATIONS COMPLETED AND RESULTS, NONDISCRIMINATION IN FEDERALLY ASSISTED SERVICES AND BENEFITS (1982 actual) Total completed Compliance findings Noncompliance findings Number resolved through written agreements to correct illegal discrimination 2,252 1,511 741 690 In addition to the enforcement anomalies discussed above, current arrangements for enforcing these statutes raise serious questions of cost effectiveness. The cost of interagency expenditures of coordination of these statutes alone exceeds the enforcement expenditures of all but four of the agencies coordinated. In addition to these expenses, there are the considerable outlays for administrative overhead and legal support necessary to maintain separate programs in each agency. The Civil Rights Division is working with the President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief to develop revised coordination regulations to address these problems. The nature of the problems which have historically characterized enforcement of these provisions, however, suggest that substantial improvement in this area may require basic reforms in the organization and structure of the administrative enforcement of these provisions. Judicial enforcement—The Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division is primarily responsible for litigation enforcing these provisions. During 1982, the Civil Rights Division negotiated a consent decree desegregating two state-run colleges in Louisiana, and an agreed-up order was entered implementing a comprehensive program to ensure equal opportunity for men and women to participate in intercollegiate athletics at the University of Alaska. Consent decrees were also approved desegregating six junior colleges in Mississippi, and the division commenced a trial on the merits in a 12For example, "Civil rights enforcement officials as well as this Commission, agree that activities targeted at systemic discrimination, such as compliance reviews, are more effective and equitable enforcement mechanisms that investigations of individual complaints"- The Federal Civil Rights Enforcement Budget, U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, June, 1982, P. 65. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 suit alleging that the Massachusetts Maritime Academy discriminates against women in admission. As has previously been the case, much of the Division's activity concentrated on eliminating de jure segregation in elementary and secondary education. The Division worked with local elementary and secondary school officials to develop plans effectively resolving several longstanding cases. A stipulated desegregation plan for Port Arthur, Texas was approved. Consent decrees modifying orders were entered in cases involving Gadsden County, Florida, Pointe Coupee Parish, Louisiana, Scott County, Mississippi, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Kansas. In another suit, a consent decree was negotiated after the court found that the Ector County, Texas school system was unconstitutionally segregated. In Mobile, Alabama a consent decree which establishes a procedure for educational experts to make recommendations and for a committee of parents and citizens to propose changes that would further school desegregation. During 1982, the Department continued to implement its new policy for remedying de jure segregation. In past administrations, the Department concentrated simply on substituting new patterns of discriminatory assignment of students based on race and national origin for the old ones, through forced busing. Such mandates not only excluded many students from the schools they wished to attend based solely on their race or national origin, but also frequently reassigned students to schools which were not better than those they had previously attended. The Department is now securing remedies which not only assure equal access to education, regardless of race or national origin, but also assure access to education of equal quality. The Department has also widened the scope of the equal protection violations it seeks to eliminate. In addition to continuing to investigate allegations of illegal discrimination in pupil assignment during 1982, the Civil Rights Division also initiated investigations of alleged discrimination based on race, color, or national origin in the quality of education. Such violations, where found, will be litigated in addition those involving de jure segregation. Due to past neglect of this problem, the law in this area has yet to be developed. The Civil Rights Division's careful but deliberate move to address it thus not only places the Department on the frontier of Constitutional interpretation and protection, but also promises to open a new frontier of opportunities that may heretofore have been illegally denied.13 13 In appellate litigation under these statutes, the Supreme Court's decision in North Haven v. Bell was most significant. The Court's principal holdings in this case were that Title IX prohibits employment discrimination, and that it applies to all programs or activities for which an institution receives Federal assistance. The Department of Justice is applying these principles in other litigation involving Title IX. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 TO REMOVE THE FINAL BARRIERS: SECURING EQUAL TREATMENT " I am for affirmative action; I am against quotas. I have lived long enough to know a time in this country when quotas were used to discriminate, not end discrimination/' —PRESIDENT REAGAN, January 19, 1982 ENFORCING EQUAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY The principal statutes and Executive orders prohibiting discrimination in employment are: —Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, or sex. —The Equal Pay Act (EPA), as amended, which prohibits discrimination in compensation based on sex. —The Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA), which prohibits discrimination against persons aged 40 through 70 based on age. —Executive Order 11246, as amended, Section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, and Section 402 of the Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Act, prohibit employment discrimination by Federal contractors based on race, color, sex, national origin, religion, handicap, service-connected disability, or Vietnam era military service, and require Federal contractors to take affirmative action to assure that such discrimination does not occur. In past administrations,14 a fundamental dilemma in the enforcement of these provisions was permitted to develop. Some programs intended to assure that all individuals are able to advance regardless of their race, color, or national origin had degenerated into quota systems—erecting new barriers to individual achievement on those very grounds. There is growing recognition that the barriers to individual achievement created by quotas are not simply the most obvious (if some persons are provided opportunities because of their group membership, other persons are denied them on the same basis). By enabling others to cast doubt on their experience and accomplishments, quotas may be creating highly formidable barriers for their intended beneficiaries.15 The Department of Justice is responsible for litigating alleged violations of Title VII, by public employers; and of Executive Order "Joseph Califano, former secretary of HHS, reports being instructed by the President to " review the work of our subordinates, and 'get rid of all of those who are incompetent, except minorities and women.' " Joseph A. Califano, Jr., Governing America, p. 341. 15E.g., in a recent interview Reginald E. Gilliam Jr., Vice Chairman of the Interstate Commerce Commission, noted that blacks who manage to enter the system often face a "gauntlet of sniping and backbiting"; "This often takes the form of ignorant verbal dismissals of exceptional individuals with comments like 'he or she wouldn't have gotten that position except for EEO'", Mr. Gilliam said, referring to affirmative action and other policies designated to promote equal employment opportunity that followed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. "All your degrees, your clerkships, your previous positions that often predate equal employment policies, Oxford, whatever all may be explained away by 'EEO'. .". New York Times, December 28, 1982. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 11246, as amended, by Federal contractors. The Department is also responsible for litigating any equal employment issues arising under Title VI and similar nondiscrimination provisions. Among the agencies responsible for implementing equal employment statutes, the Department of Justice has lead in developing discrimination remedies which open doors to equal employment opportunity without unjustly stigmatizing those who pass through them. In 1981, the Department implemented a new approach to remedies for employment discrimination. In place of the employment quotas of the past, the Department is requiring employers found to have discriminated to institute specific, programs that assure that members of the group previously excluded are considered for future employment opportunities. The Department will also assure that genuinely nondiscriminatory procedures are used in selecting from the resulting pool of eligibles. These remedies will institutionalize the process of nondiscriminatory selection, and thus have a longer lasting impact than court imposed numbers forgotten when decrees have expired. During 1982, the Civil Rights Division continued to refine this new approach as it implemented a vigorous program of equal employment litigation. The Department filed six new pattern and practice suits against public employers, including the Department's first suit alleging such discrimination based on sex in higher education. The Department had 113 lawsuits in progress by the end of 1982. Overall, the Department's efforts resulted in the hire, promotion, or reinstatement of 1,400 identifed victims of discrimination and $4.4 million in backpay for 1,000 persons. In addition, long term remedies designed to assure future nondiscrimination were implemented by 10 public agencies or institutions employing over 16,000 persons. As in its other appellate activities, the Department's efforts regarding equal employment issues concentrated on restoring the basic principle of nondiscrimination to the interpretation of the laws. During 1982, for example, its appellate activity firmly established the right of persons employed by subsidaries of foreign corporations to be free from employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, or sex. During 1983, the Department is moving to assure that corrective action mandated for employment discrimination fully "makes whole" its victims without, in turn, creating new ones. In Firefighters v. Boston, currently before the Supreme Court, the Department is defending this principle in regard to a court order which required the layoff of firefighters solely based on their race. Responding to the protests of female, Hispanic, and white male police officers who face the prospect of being denied promotions they have earned based solely on their race, the Department has also moved to intervene in a case SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 involving the New Orleans Police Department. Concurrently, the Department of Justice has filed a brief with the Supreme Court challenging the current practice of many pension plans of requiring different contributions, or providing different periodic payments, solely on the basis of the participants' sex. The Department's position in this case summarizes the thrust of its appellate efforts in this and other areas: Title VII and similar civil rights statutes protect all individuals, and require that employment and other covered decisions be made on the basis of their individual accomplishments and characteristics—not on presumptions based solely on their race, sex, national origin, or other irrelevant factors. The President's 1984 budget provides for outlays of $2.8 million for the Department's equal employment enforcement activities in 1984. 1982 also saw continued improvements in the effectiveness of the EEOC: Although the number of charges received by EEOC dropped by 7%, the number of charges processed by EEOC dropped by less than 4%—and the number of persons benefitted through charge settlements increased by 36%, and the total dollar benefits obtained through such settlements increased by 10%. Table J - l l . EEOC ADMINISTRATIVE COMPLAINT PROCESSING 1980 Total receipts Total closures Persons benefitted2 through settlements Total dollar value of settlements (millions). 1 2 3 56,425 57,327 (3) $57.3 1 1981 58,754 71,690 38,114 $91.7 1982 54,590 68,890 51,795 $101.1 Includes administrative processing of charges filed under Title VII, the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, and the Equal Pay Act. Includes, in addition to backpay and other dollar settlements, reinstatement, hires, promotions, and other nonfinanciat relief. No data available. During 1982, the EEOC continued to involve State and local agencies in resolving discrimination complaints. During 1982, the Commission provided over 17.5 million in grants to State and local nondiscrimination agencies, and deferred 38,800 charges to these agencies for processing. During 1984, the EEOC will provide $18 million in grants to State and local agencies, and will defer 40,750 charges for processing at the State and local level. Thus, the Administration has continued and expanded the improvements secured in the 1970's in EEOC's implementation of its complaint processing and enforcement responsibilities. The Administration found, however, that many endemic management problems remained to be addressed. The General Accounting Office and the Office of Personnel Management were asked to assist in the effort to define those problems so that they might be corrected. The GAO found that many of the same recordkeeping and financial management problems it had identified in 1976 continued to exist in 1981. The Commission had no accurate records of the H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 money owed it and the personnel responsible for handling the Commission's funds were poorly supervised and trained and their duties were not adequately separated to preclude fraud and waste. Compounding these difficulties, necessary financial management audits were not being performed because the agency's internal audit staff was too small to perform them. As a final result: Table J - 1 2 . EEOC LEGAL ENFORCEMENT Actual 1980 Total dollar benefits through case resolutions (millions) Cases in progress (end of fiscal year) $20.3 683 1981 $16.2 873 1982 $33.53 930 —The Commission's financial chaos posed the threat of "unnecessary cancellation of programmed activities, slippage of required programs, and even job losses for agency employees" because it had no accurate knowledge of the funds available for program purposes. —Millions of dollars owed to the Commission were unavailable for program activities. For example, some $1.1 million in travel advances were outstanding, and "very little action [had been] taken to collect or settle amounts that had been outstanding for extended periods". —The Commission's inability to pay its bills in a timely manner cost it substantial amounts of discounts (available for timely payment) which would have increased the impact of its outlays. —Year-end financial expenditure reports for the previous two fiscal years had been certified as correct, even though it "should have been obvious to agency personnel that the figures were incorrect". In a separate audit of the Commission's Office of Review and Appeals, the GAO examined 19 allegations involving . . . "a wide range of alleged management and operating problems concluding that many of the allegations made were valid". GAO also found that the Commission's new leadership is "aware of the problems and . . . taking action to address them".16 The OPM study, conducted in a headquarters division and two district offices concluded that, in the units surveyed: —"substantial overgrading" existed "and likely exists in other parts of the agency." —The supervisory structure was "excessive and expensive." 16 "Continuing Financial Management Problems at the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission," General Accounting Office, May 17, 1982 inquiry into Alleged Operating and Management Problems in EEOC's Office of Review and Appeals" on August 29, 1982. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 —Management accountability procedures did not . . account for the 'quality' or the achievement of agency's overall objectives." —A work environment "beset by acrimony, improper employee conduct, poor performance, and favoritism".17 To aid in the elimination of these deficiencies on an agency-wide basis, OPM will conduct a wider ranging survey in 1983. The current Chairman of the EEOC, who assumed office in the closing months of the fiscal year, has inherited the challenge of addressing these longstanding problems. Chairman Thomas has encouraged evaluation by GAO and OPM and partial parties, and has rapidly implemented their recommendations. Much remains to be done through 1984, and the Chairman currently has several studies underway regarding how the agency's general operations might be improved. After reviewing the deficiencies landed by GAO and the administration's efforts to correct them, the Chairman of the Senate Committee responsible for oversight of the Commission's activities observed that: "This administration and this committee have been criticized for lack of commitment to civil rights, yet . . . Our goal has been that of increasing our efforts at pursuing those goals. Because we ask critical questions [and take] the studies of GAO seriously, we are accused of being anti-civil rights. I must question whether those who criticize are also the same as those who would allow the conditions which the GAO reviewed at EEOC to continue and thereby deny the services to the people who need the assistance for which the agency was created?" In addition to initiating action to resolve these management problems, the Administration also took action to strengthen the protections the EEOC is responsible for assuring under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act. Emphasizing that "when it comes to retirement the criterion should be fitness for work, not year of birth", the President announced his support for legislation eliminating mandatory retirement requirements in government and private industry based solely on age. The President's budget provides for outlays of $153 million for the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission in 1984. Of the Federal Government's efforts to assure equal employment opportunities, the programs administered by the Department of Labor's Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs have most starkly posed the dilemma referred to above. Established by Executive order over 20 years ago, OFCCP's basic premise was a simple one: To expand equal employment opportunities for women and minorities by requiring that Federal contractors act affirmatively to assure that qualified minorities and women were recruited and considered for vacancies, and that their procedures for filling those ""Personnel Management Evaluation Report: Personnel and administrated management in the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission", May 1982. 380-700 0 - 83 - 21 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 vacancies were nondiscriminatory in fact as well as precept. During the 1970's, Congress expanded this "affirmative action" mandate to include handicapped persons and Vietnam-era veterans. Contractors were required to develop plans detailing the recruitment and other efforts they would undertake to assure equal opportunity. The administration found that this simple premise had evolved into a regulatory morass, criticized both by Federal contractors and the intended beneficiaries of OFCCP's regulations. The most serious concerns involved OFCCP's requirements for affirmative action plans: —There was no clear answer to the basic question of what constituted compliance with the affirmative action requirements: was compliance based on contractors' good faith efforts to recruit women and minorities and assure that employee selection was nondiscriminatory, or did OFCCP disregard these considerations in a single-minded focus on whether employment goals were met? Many believed that such goals, originally intended as yardsticks of progress, had been distorted in practice into quotas. —Requirements for drafting the plans were, at once, overly prescriptive and insufficiently clear. Contractors were required to produce voluminous affirmative action plans and supporting data, with no assurance that the resulting product would be found acceptable during a compliance review. Compliance reviews frequently degenerated into confrontations over which job titles belonged in which "job group", or how the eight factors for determining the "availability" of minorities and women for jobs should be considered in arriving at overall "availability" figures. Compliance with these (and related Federal) requirements generated an estimated $1 billion per year in expenditures by employers among the "Fortune 500" 18 alone. The concepts of "job groups" and "availability" could be, and frequently were, manipulated to justify failure to recruit and employ qualified minorities and women. —Requirements did not consider differences in the size of contractors or their individual establishments. The same level of detail was required in an affirmative action plan for a contractor employing only 50 persons as for a contractor employing thousands; and for a contractor's plan for a small retail sales outlet as for the same contractor's plan for a large manufacturing plant. —These frustrations with the requirements themselves were compounded by OFCCP's adversarial approach to enforcing them. The potential that contractors attempting in good faith "Estimate by the Equal Employment Advisory Council cited in Daniel Seligman, "Affirmative Action is Here to Stay", Fortune, April 19,1982, p. 156. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 to comply might nevertheless be found in noncompliance was inherent in the ambiguity of OFCCP's regulations, and was frequently realized. The Administration is continuing its review of OFCCP's regulations to develop revisions to these regulations which will eliminate these problems, and restore the focus of OFCCP's efforts to assuring that Federal contractors make vigorous efforts, through recruitment, training, counseling and the like, to assure that minorities, women, Vietnam era veterans, and persons with disabilities are assured of every available employment opportunity consistent with their skills, abilities, and aspirations. While the work on reforming its regulations continued, OFCCP's management completed important management reforms, including consolidating several area offices to reduce overhead. OFCCP completed 2589 complaint investigations and 3081 compliance reviews during 1982. Of these, 404 investigations and 1294 compliance reviews produced relief for identified victims of discrimination, including $7,149,733 backpay for 1133 persons. 17,614 identified victims of discrimination were placed in or restored to jobs. The President's budget provides for outlays of $47.4 million for OFCCP's nondiscrimination efforts in 1984. In addition to those discussed above, other problems in Federal EEO enforcement remain to be addressed. The Uniform Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures (UGESP) require examination to assure they are not discouraging the use of valid and job related employee selection devices.19 Review of these regulations, targeted by the President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief, will continue in 1983. In addition, there are continued problems duplication in Federal EEO enforcement, including: —While EEOC and OFCCP have periodically negotiated memoranda of understanding intended to preclude duplicate reviews and investigations, this objective has yet to be achieved. —The work of EEOC is also duplicated by yet other agencies, operating under Title VI and other statutes requiring nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs. Significant progress toward reducing this duplication will be made this year, with the issuance of a joint regulation by EEOC and the Department of Justice providing for referral of many employment discrimination complaints received by these agencies to the EEOC for processing. However, a substantial number will still be retained for investigation by the individual agencies. Many of the complaints retained for investigation will be class actions—with a potential for overlap with the systemic activities 19 See, e.q., "Uniform Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures Should Be Reviewed and Revised", General Accounting Office, July 30, 1982. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 of the EEOC and (particularly with regard to colleges and universities) those of the OFCCP as well. —In addition to the problems inherent in duplication, the cost effectiveness of these duplicate activities in identifying and resolving discrimination is questionable: Table J - 1 3 . EXPENDITURES AND OUTCOMES, EEO ADMINISTRATIVE ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES 1 1982 Actual Other EEO programs EEOC Total direct compliance outlays (millions) 1 Total persons receiving relief for discrimination as a result of activities2 Total value of financial settlements $48.6 51,795 $101,194,695 $40.2 18,866 $7,262,392 1 Compares direct outlavs for EEOCs administrative processing of complaints with direct outlays for other programs' administrative processing of complaints and conduct of pre and post award compliance reviews. 2 Includes all forms of relief, including hire, promotion, reinstatement, and other remedies in addition to backpay. Civil Service Equal Employment Opportunity.—As the servant of all Americans, and as an institution responsible for enforcing laws requiring equal employment by other institutions, the Federal Government has a particular obligation to assure nondiscrimination in its own employment. Moreover, especially in this period of reduced resources, Federal agencies simply cannot afford to hire or promote employees on any bases other than their job-related abilities and demonstrated diligence in applying them. Congress has, therefore, mandated that each Federal department and agency make special efforts to assure that their employment decisions are made without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, or handicap; and the President has reiterated his determination that agencies implement this mandate. Table J - 1 4 . TOTAL RESOURCES DEVOTED TO FEDERAL INTERNAL EQUAL EMPLOYMENT Actual Total Outlays (millions) Total full time permanent internal EEO staff 1 Total other Federal work years 2 1981 1982 177.7 2,930 181.3 3,441 Estimate 1983 Proposed 184.3 3,517 203.9 3,542 1 Professional and clerical personnel employed full time in internal EEO activities. 2 Effort devoted to counseling, complaint, investigations, affirmative recruitment, and other activities by individuals not employed in internal EEO positions. Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972, as amended, the EEOC is responsible for coordinating these efforts. In addition, OPM, under the Civil Service Reform Act, coordinates agency efforts under the Federal Equal Opportunity Recruitment Program (FEORP) to assure that qualified minorities and women are among the applicants considered for positions in which they have been determined to be underrepresented. Despite the necessary economies which have been effected in Federal employment, the representation of minorities and women SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 in Federal employment has not only remained stable, but has risen somewhat: Table J-15. PERCENTAGE REPRESENTATION OF MINORITIES AND WOMEN IN THE FEDERAL WORKFORCE 1 Total Federal employment Minorities December 1980 July 1982 2 23.5 23.9 Women 39 39.3 Total full time white collar employment Minorities November 1980 March 1982 20.9 21.5 Women 45.6 46 1 Nonpostal civilian employment. Produced from the Central Personnel Data File. "Total Federal Employment" data includes all work schedules. Excludes agencies not covered by the CPDF such as: Architect of the Capitol, U.S. Botanic Gardens, Congressional Budget Office, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Library of Congress, Office of the Vice President, Office of Technology Assessment, Postal Rate Commission, Tennessee Valley Authority, the White House Office, the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency and most of the Judicial Branch. "Full Time White Collar Employment" data also excludes agencies listed above. 2 Latest available figures. During 1982, the Federal Government spent more on implementing EEO requirements in the civil service than on all external enforcement of equal employment requirements by the two largest enforcement agencies (EEOC and OFCCP) combined. A substantial portion of this disparity is attributable to the extraordinary costliness of processing discrimination complaints against Federal agencies contributed substantially to this disparity. Federal entities devoted over $72 million and 2,215 professional FTE's to processing EEO grievances in 1982, including $44 million and 1,067 FTE's for processing formal complaints. While EEO counseling is usually performed as a collateral duty, most formal complaints are processed by personnel employed solely for that purpose.20 Table J - 1 6 . INTERNAL EEO COMPLAINT PROCESSING COSTS (In millions of dollars) Actual 1980 Counseling Direct processing of complaints* Total 1981 1982 Est. 1983 Proposed 1984 18.6 36.8 28.0 44 29.9 47.8 31.7 51.1 55.4 72 77.7 82.8 * Includes processing of formal complaints by agencies, and appellate processing by EEOC only. The Merit Systems Protection Board is responsible for processing appeals of complaints which allege both discrimination and violations of other Federal personnel requirements. The MSPB processes a substantial number of such appeals (778 in 1982 a figure expected to rise to 945 in 1984), the Board did not begin monitoring the costs of these appeals on a separate basis until this year. Detailed information on MSPB's processing of these appeals will be included in next year's Civil Rights Special Analysis. 20 An increasing number of agencies have, however, been required to report to private contractors to perform such investigations. The Department of Agriculture alone spent $297 thousand for such investigations in 1982, and expects that figure to reach $741 thousand in 1984. In addition, Federal agencies spent over $11 million on legal expenses associated with EEO grievances, a figure expected to exceed $14 million in 1984. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 When the costs and results of internal EEO complaint processing are compared with EEOC's record in the private sector (agencies closed 15,759 complaints in 1982 at a direct cost of $44 million, compared with EEOC's direct costs of $49 million to close 68,890 complaints), it is apparent that current arrangements and procedures for processing EEO complaints against Federal agencies are needlessly expensive. While it is difficult to compute the costs of processing on a complaint by complaint basis in large agencies which process many complaints, these costs are starkly apparent in the smaller entities subject to the procedures. For example, a complaint against the Pennsylvania Avenue Development Corporation (which an EEOC complaints examiner recently concluded was based on "assertions [that] are not only unsupported but are for the most part based on unfounded speculation and unreasonable suspicions") has been in processing for two years. The case has required PADC to expend $15,000 in salary and other costs (not including additional costs for complaint counseling, performed for PADC under an inter-agency agreement by the General Services Administration, and the complaints examiner provided by EEOC) and reproduce some 2000 pages. Among the principle reasons for the extraordinary costliness of these procedures are: —There are twice as many steps in Federal as in private sector complaint processing. Moreover, there are as many as four administrative determinatons on the merits for Federal complaints, compared with only one in processing private sector complaints. These multiple levels of review are largely designed to protect complainants against potential abuses of agency self-processing. —Most agencies have fixed numbers of staff designated to perform the complaint processing functions. As these staff are not fungible among agencies, some agencies must hire private contractors to handle unexpectedly high workloads while other agencies' staffs are idle. —Due to the dispersal of processing staff among agencies, quality of training and supervision varies considerably from agency to agency, as does the quality and timeliness of complaint processing. In addition, direct agency expenditures for implementing affirmative action requirements applicable to Federal agencies are continuing to rise substantially at the same time that placement opportunities are declining in most agencies: SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table J - 1 7 . DIRECT EXPENDITURES ON AFFIRMATIVE EMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS Actual 1982 Total outlays (millions) Estimate 1983 $57.9 $60.7 Proposed 1984 $62.9 Through 1984, the Administration will continue to examine ways in which equal employment can be implemented in the Federal Government with greater fairness and efficiency. As the Chairman of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, Clarence Thomas, has forcefully observed: "We cannot afford to base decisions on the same assumptions, year after year, about the nature of the problem or the requirements for a solution. . . . We cannot afford to devote significant time and energy to policies or programs which effect no measurable progress". Military Service equal opportunity.—During 1982, the Administration continued to improve the effectiveness of efforts to assure equal opportunities for the over 2,000,000 men and women who serve in the nation's armed forces. Over 1.5 million personnel received training designed to promote equal opportunities and preclude such problems as sexual harassment. Programs designed to assure consideration of qualified minority and women applicants resulted in the recruitment of 11,698 female and 9,481 minority officer candidates in 1982. As a result of these and similar efforts, the percentage of military officers who are women has increased by 12%, and the percentage of officers who are members of minority groups has increased by 11% since 1980: Table J - 1 8 . PERCENTAGES OF MILITARY OFFICERS WHO ARE MINORITIES OR WOMEN Percentage total officers 1980 Minorities Women 9.1 8.2 1982 10.1 9.2 Change 1980-82 + 11 + 12 These policies have also contributed to the continued-substantial percentage of enlisted personnel who are members of minority groups, and continued growth in the percentage who are women: Table J - 1 9 . PERCENTAGES OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL WHO ARE MINORITIES OR WOMEN Percent total enlisted ^ personnel 1980 Minorities Women 30.3 8.5 1982 30.3 9 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Service in this nation's Armed Services has traditionally attracted persons of all backgrounds who wish to progress on the basis of their individual abilities and accomplishments. This has been particularly true for members of minority groups, as the military has frequently lead other institutions in eliminating barriers based on race, national origin, and religion. Providing contemporary evidence for the President's observation that the concept of proportional representation has historically been used to exclude minorities, some have argued in recent years that the number of minorities in the military should be artificially restricted to reflect their percentage in the population as a whole. In 1982, a Presidential Task Force appointed to study military personnel issues reemphasized the Administration's rejection of this notion. In addressing this issue, the panel aptly summarized the Administration's thrust in all of the equal employment efforts discussed above: Some observers express concern about the high proportion of blacks in the enlisted force, which is 22% . . . The population as a whole, in contrast, is 12% black. [We] do not look on this as a problem. In a volunteer force, both blacks and nonblacks who can qualify have equal freedom to enlist. The fact that many blacks volunteer is a tribute to their patriotism. Black servicemembers have served the nation ably and honorably. It would be both unnecessary and unfair to move a quota-based recruitment system to achieve some arbitrary notion of a proper racial balance. ENFORCING EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY Title VIII of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, as amended, prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin in the sale, rental, or financing of housing or provisions of brokerage services. Two Federal agencies are primarily responsible for enforcing Title VIII. —The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Office for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity investigates complaints alleging violations of Title VIII. Where it concludes that violations of Title VIII have occurred, HUD attempts to resolve them through informal conference, conciliation, and persuasion. —The General Litigation Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division brings suits to enjoin alleged patterns and practices of discrimination prohibited by Title VIII. The Section brings cases based both on referrals by HUD and its own investigations. Title VIII provides for deferral for complaints filed with HUD to State and local fair housing agencies with equivalent statutory authority. During 1982 HUD continued its aggressive efforts to expand involvement of State and local agencies in assuring Fair Housing. HUD obligated over $5 million for direct grants and technical assistance to help State and local agencies develop proce- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 dures, train staff, and other measures necessary to develop the capacity to process fair housing complaints. As a result, the number of State and local agencies participating in charge processing grew from 42 to 61, an increase of 60%. Through 1984, HUD expects to increase the number of participating State and local agencies to 90—almost tripling the number in the program at the beginning of 1981. Through 1984, the number of Title VIII complaints processed at the State and local rather than the Federal level will further increase in 1984. The costs of the program, however, will decrease (to $3.7 million a year, mostly in grants to defray the costs of complaint processing) because the initial high outlays for start-up costs will no longer be necessary. Table J - 2 0 . NUMBER OF STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES WITH CHARGE PROCESSING AGREEMENTS End of fiscal y e a r — 198 0 198 1 198 2 1983 (estimated) 1984 (estimated) Number 32 42 67 70 90 During 1982, HUD invested similar "seed money" in local Community Housing Resource Boards. These Boards initiate affirmative marketing and other voluntary efforts to assure fair housing. Some 613 of these Boards were in existence at the end of 1982, and it is anticipated that an additional 50 will be organized in 1983. Again, costs will decrease as the initial capacity building is completed: from obligations of $2.1 million in 1982 to $1 million in 1984. Table J - 2 1 . TOTAL FAIR HOUSING COMPLAINTS PROCESS BY HUD AND STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES Total closures Percent change, 1980-82 Year: 1980 1982 2,860 4,230 + 48% These investments in the abilities of the private sector and State and local governments will reduce the incidence of violations which give rise to complaints. Where complaints are filed, more will be resolved by the States and communities in which the parties reside. During 1982, for example, HUD referred 56.7% of the complaints it received to State and local agencies for process (compared with only 13% in 1980), and State and local agencies were responsible for over 58% of all voluntary complaint settlements achieved under Title VIII. As a result of this cooperation between HUD and State H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 and local agencies, there has been a substantial increase in the service provided to persons filing complaints under Title VIII, with 41% more complaints closed in 1982 than in 1980. Table J - 2 2 . FAIR HOUSING COMPLAINTS REFERRED TO STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES Actual Complaints received Complaints referred 1980 1981 1982 3,039 410 4,209 1,661 4,726 2,679 The Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division is responsible for litigating alleged pattern and practice violations of Title VIII. During 1982, the Department settled 3 major housing discrimination cases and filed 2 new suits. The Division negotiated a consent decree in a redlining suit brought under both the credit and housing statutes. This settlement provides comprehensive relief to assure that persons living on American Indian Reservations in Arizona will not be denied mortgage loans because the property interest involved reservation land, and that applications by Indians for nonhousing loans would be fairly evaluated. After a trial, the Division obtained a favorable decision and remedial order in a case involving a city in suburban Detroit which had violated the Fair Housing Act by blocking construction of housing for low-income and elderly persons in response to racially motivated opposition. This Division is continuing its vigorous enforcement of Title VIII in 1983. In January, the Division filed a major suit alleging systemic violations of the Fair Housing Act by the city of Cicero, Illinois. The Department of Justice's appellate activity resulted in a Supreme Court ruling with particular significance for the future of Title VIII enforcement. This ruling sanctioned the use of "testers" in identifying the remaining vestiges of denial of fair housing opportunities. ENFORCING EQUAL CREDIT OPPORTUNITY The Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974 (ECOA) prohibits discrimination in credit transactions based on race, color, national origin, sex, marital status, age or derivation of part or all of one's income from public assistance. The Act assigns administrative enforcement responsibilities to 12 different Federal agencies, and requires the Federal Research Board to coordinate their activities. In addition, the General Litigation Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division is responsible for litigating alleged violations of ECOA. Despite the wide dispersal of authority for enforcing ECOA and other fair lending laws many of the problems of duplication pres- SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F- 55 ent in other areas of dispersed responsibility have been avoided in the enforcement of these statutes. Because the structure for enforcing ECOA reflects the division of responsibility for the overall regulation of financial institutions, agencies are able to review compliance with ECOA and other financial regulations at the same time. As the distinctions among financial institutions (which originally gave rise to separate regulatory bodies for the different classes of institutions) have been substantially eroded in recents years, the Administration is currently examining the extent to which separate regulatory bodies continue to be required. Since the passage of the ECOA, the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division has worked closely with Federal regulatory agencies and have filed significant suits challenging the nonhousing lending practices of banks, small loan companies and retail creditors as well as the practices of real estate appraisers and mortgage lenders. The suits include cases against large creditors—one defendant processes approximately 4,000,000 loan applications each year—and will clearly have a substantial impact on the industry. In addition to negotiating a consent decree in the "redlining" suit (discussed above under Fair Housing), the Division also completed the first trial on the merits of a government-initiated credit case, and filed a suit alleging that the nation's third largest small loan company is unlawfully discriminating on the basis of sex and martial status. A total of five Equal Credit suits were in progress at the close of 1982. The President's budget for 1984 provides for outlays of $700 thousand for ECOA litigation by the Department of Justice. As several of the entities responsible for the administrative enforcement of ECOA and other fair lending requirements (e.g., the Federal Reserve Board, the agency designated by Congress to coordinate enforcement of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act) are not required to submit their budgets to OMB for review, no total outlay data for administrative enforcement are available. CIVIL RIGHTS RESEARCH: CONTINUING THE SEARCH FOR NEW SOLUTIONS "Let us issue a call for exciting programs to spring America forward toward the next century, an America full of new solutions to old problems."—RONALD REAGAN, June 29, 1981. Congress established the Commission on Civil Rights in 1957 to study the enforcement of laws guaranteeing civil rights regardless of race, color, religion, or national origin. During the 1970's, the Commission's mandate was expanded to cover civil rights issues related to sex, age, and handicap. The President has announced his support for extending the Congressional authorization of the Commission (due to expire this year) in his State of the Union Message. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 This is but one indication of the importance to this Administration of the Commission's mandate to assure that the laws protecting individuals against discrimination are faithfully executed. Table J - 2 3 . U.S. COMMISSION ON CIVIL RIGHTS RESEARCH AND INFORMATION DISSEMINATION, RESOURCE OUTLAYS BY PROGRAM AREA Actual outlays 1980 Federal service EEO Private sector EEO Fair Housing Nondiscrimination in provision of federally assisted services and benefits Voting rights Civil and Constitutional Rights Minority business enterprise programs Total n I1) i1) n n n t1) 11,485 21981 1982 Estimated 1983 Proposed 1984 385 2,971 616 227 3,984 690 239 4,172 597 606 3,996 1,211 2,602 1,237 3,897 103 3,299 819 2,641 138 3,580 716 2,505 119 3,265 484 2,422 121 11,712 11,788 11,928 12,214 Prior to 1981, 0MB did not request a breakdown by research category. 2 Difference between total research outlays and total Commission outlays represents internal EEO expenditure for all years except 1981. In 1981, the Commission reported $183 thousand in expenditures for processing complaints of civil rights violations of various kinds. 1 The Women's Bureau of the Department of Labor is continuing to explore new approaches to addressing employment problems affecting women, with particular attention to initiatives involving the private sector and State and local governments. During 1982, for example, the Bureau worked with private employers and State and local governments on programs to improve opportunities for women in construction apprenticeships, and to address the employment problems of female ex-offenders, displaced homemakers, and older women. BY PRECEPT AND EXAMPLE: TAKING RIGHTS SERIOUSLY . . . "Yes, there are differences over how to attain the equality we seek for all our people. And sometimes, amidst all the overblown rhetoric, the differences tend to seem bigger than they are. But actions speak louder than works. . . . " PRESIDENT REAGAN, J u n e 2 9 , 1 9 8 2 Thus, the Federal involvement in assuring civil rights reflects a national commitment to implementing our highest ideals. The Administration's accomplishments in restoring substance to this involvement are significant when judged by the traditional measures: resources devoted to civil rights enforcement;21 management im21 The Administration has made equally significant progress in areas which are related to, but not covered, by this Analysis. On December 17, 1982, President Reagan announced a plan to create and expand more than 120,000 new and existing minority businesses in the next ten years. Approximately $1.5 billion in credit assistance and $300 million in management and technical assistance will be made available in support of this effort. The Administration has also moved to strengthen historically black colleges and universities. The President signed an Executive Order strengthening the Federal commitment to these institutions, and the Administration has provided $9.6 million in additional Title III funding (an 8% increase). The Administration's quick action to save Meharry Medical College (which has trained more than 40% of all black physicians) is particularly worthy of note. The Administration not only provided several million dollars in assistance to the medical school, but acted to expand Veterans' Administration's affiliation with it. Such expanded affiliation had been sought by Meharry, without success, through several previous administrations. F SPECIAL ANALYSIS F- 55 provements; cases and charges handled; actions brought; settlements reached; and compensation and opportunities restored to wronged individuals. But the Administration's most important contributions, and those by which its commitment may best be measured, have been its efforts to restore substance to the definition of the civil rights which the Federal Government enforces. The Administration has reaffirmed the original vision which lies at the heart of our national commitment: an America that is colorblind, gender-neutral, ethnically and religiously tolerant and diverse; an America which judges individuals on the basis of their abilities. And it has reemphasized the clear meaning of the statutes intended to implement this commitment: that these laws protect individuals against treatment based solely on their race, sex, color, national origin, religion, or disability; and that they mandate equal access to opportunities for all individuals. Considerable progress remains to be achieved. Through 1984, this Administration will neither diminish its reaffirmation of America's commitment to equal treatment, nor shrink from the measures required to give it effect as well as expression. And there will be persons of good will who will continue to call for a return to expedients which, for a time, were allowed to substitute for that commitment. But the likelihood of debate on those measures will continue to reflect, not a division of purpose, but the intensity of our common national commitment. Table J - 2 4 . CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education1 Department of Energy 1 Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Commission on Civil Rights Office of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Veterans Administration All other Executive agencies 2 (U.S. Postal Service) 3 (Legislative Branch—GAO, GPO) 3 15.3 3.7 117.0 45.3 3.1 27.1 24.6 10.3 39.9 52.6 .3 13.9 11.2 137.6 11.89 3.6 2.4 11.4 17.0 18.0 1.4 1983 estimate 17.0 4.4 125.0 45.0 3.4 27.9 34.0 10.4 43.7 54.5 .5 14.6 11.7 147.0 12.04 3.3 2.4 12.2 17.2 19.6 1.4 1984 estimate 17.7 4.4 133.9 45.3 3.7 28.8 30.4 10.5 46.9 58.7 .4 15.1 12.2 153.0 12.21 3.8 2.4 13.4 18.3 21.4 1.6 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table J - 2 4 . CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 actual Total 567.6 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 607.2 634.1 ^ h e Education and Energy activities included under these accounts will be proposed for reassignment to appropriate executive departments and agencies pursuant to reorganization legislation to be submitted at a later date. 2 Includes outlays by 49 agencies. 3 U.S. Postal Service and Legislative Branch outlays appear in the Annexed Budget and are included here for memorandum purposes only. Table J - 2 5 . TOTAL ESTIMATED FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS EXPENDITURES BY CATEGORY, FISCAL YEAR 1984 (In millions of dollars) Federal Civilian Equal Employment Opportunity Military Equal Opportunity Private Sector and non-Federal Public Sector Equal Employment Opportunity Fair Housing Nondiscrimination, Federally Assisted Programs Equal Credit Opportunity Voting Rights Other Civil and Constitutional Rights 203.9 51.8 211.5 28.4 94.2 5.3 4.8 30.8 Table J - 2 6 . TOTAL FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVIL RIGHTS STAFF BY EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY, FISCAL YEAR 1984 (ESTIMATE) Total Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentDepartment of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Commission on Civil Rights Office of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Veterans Administration All other Executive agencies (U.S. Postal Service) (Legislative Branch—GAO, GPO) Total.. Internal EEO 1 173 86 2,486 965 50 688 582 224 905 1,215 119 254 2,980 236 45 50 73 500 416 26 12,074 2 109 79 2,407 15 41 179 47 220 156 66 214 18 3 45 14 70 345 416 26 4,558 1 Agency totals for FTP Internal EEO and FTP External program staff in some cases are less than figures for total civil rights FTP because some personnel have duties in both areas, includes 917 FTP staff devoted to military service equal opportunity. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table J - 2 7 . DISTRIBUTION OF PROFESSIONAL FTE's* AMONG PROGRAM CATEGORIES, EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES, FISCAL YEAR 1984 ESTIMATE Tots! FTE Federal service equal opportunity Military service equal opportunity Private sector and non-Federal public sector equal employment opportunity Fair housing Nondiscrimination, federally assisted programs Equal Credit Opportunity Voting rights Other Civil and Constitutional Rights •Includes all professional FTE's devoted to the designated activities. 5,365 2,566 3,020 168 1,939.26 151 96 370 SPECIAL ANALYSISFF-55 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT This analysis covers the funding of research and development across all departments and agencies with R&D programs of $10 million or more, representing over 99% of total Federal funds for R&D. It consists of two sections. The first highlights the R&D policies and trends in the 1984 budget. The second describes in more detail the R&D programs of 13 agencies whose R&D obligations individually exceed $150 million. PART I. HIGHLIGHTS Total Federal funding for research and development, including R&D facilities, is proposed at $47.0 billion in 1984, an increase of $6.9 billion or 17% above the 1983 level of $40.1 billion. Included within the overall R&D funding is support for the conduct of basic research, estimated to increase by 10%, from $6.0 billion in 1983 to $6.6 billion in 1984, including an 18% increase in programs of the National Science Foundation. The Federal Government funds R&D activities to serve two broad purposes: • To meet specific Federal Government needs—where the principal user of the R&D is the Government itself—for example, to ensure a strong national defense; • To meet broad national needs—where the Federal Government supports R&D that the private sector lacks incentive to invest in adequately, in the national interest—to help assure the strength of the economy and the quality of life for all people. Included in this category are, for example, agricultural and health research; support of basic research through programs of the National Science Foundation and the general science programs of the current Department of Energy; and the pursuit of selected long-term energy technologies, such as magnetic fusion. The 1984 budget continues to reflect the established policies of the Administration in funding R&D but further strengthens support in areas of major Federal responsibility. It provides for: • Major increases across all R&D programs of the Department of Defense; • A significant increase in Government-wide support of basic research with emphasis on support of research in the physical K-L 380-700 0 - 83 - 22 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 sciences and engineering. Advances in these fields are key to future national defense and the long term competitiveness of the U.S. economy, particularly in high technology industries. • A number of major new initiatives, particularly in energyrelated programs, currently in the Department of Energy, and in NASA that will significantly enhance the research productivity of the Nation's scientific community especially in basic research. These include a new center for materials research at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, expansion of the National Synchrotron Light Source at Brookhaven National Laboratory, a new colliding beam facility at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, and a numerical aerodynamic simulation capability at NASA's Ames Research Laboratory. • Continued reductions in Federal support of nearer-term R&D and demonstration programs (e.g., in energy technologies). For such programs the private sector, not the Federal Government, has the expertise and capability to select and fund the advancement of technologies that can be successfully brought into the marketplace. To complement private sector efforts, the Federal Government's role is primarily to create an economic climate conducive to private investments, through such measures as tax incentives and reductions in the burden of regulations. Federal Government investments should be limited to longer term research and technology support which the private sector does not have the economic incentive to provide for adequately to serve the national interest. The Administration will further seek, in 1984, to make more effective use of increased research funds, particularly in the basic sciences to: • Attract the highest caliber scientists and engineers, particularly young faculty members, into research and encourage and support them in their careers. These efforts will assist in ensuring a high quality scientific workforce to meet needs of the Nation both in the near and the long term; • Encourage greater and more creative interaction among university, Government and industry scientists to bring the Nation's best scientific expertise together in addressing the most challenging scientific and technical problems and opportunities; and • Upgrade the scientific instrumentation of universities to enhance productivity and excellence in research and the training of scientists and engineers. The 1984 budget also includes proposed efforts by the NSF and the Department of Education to improve the teaching of science and mathematics in the Nation's secondary schools. Though not covered in this analysis, these efforts will help in improving the SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 capability of the future work force to contribute to economic growth in an increasingly technological society. Total obligations and outlays for the conduct of all Federal R&D programs and for related facilities are shown in Table K - l . TABLE K - l . TOTAL FEDERAL FUNDING FOR CONDUCT OF R&D AND RELATED FACILITIES (In billions of dollars) Obligations 1982 actual Outlays 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate Conduct of R&D R&D Facilities 36.4 1.2 38.9 1.2 45.8 1.2 34.5 1.3 37.7 1.2 42.7 1.1 Total 37.6 40.1 47.0 35.8 38.9 43.8 CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT The 1984 budget includes $45.8 billion in obligations for the conduct of R&D, an increase of $6.9 billion or 18% over 1983. Highlights of the programs of the major R&D agencies that account for 93% of the proposed obligations for the conduct of R&D by all agencies are presented below: • Department of Defense (DOD).—Obligations for the conduct of R&D by DOD are estimated at $29.9 billion in 1984, an increase of $6.7 billion or about 29% above 1983. This represents 65% of the total Federal funds for R&D proposed for 1984. The increased funds are proposed for R&D largely related to advanced strategic systems such as the Peacemaker and Trident II ballistic missiles. In addition, the Department would also provide for increased emphasis on basic research in such areas as materials and microelectronics, and advanced technology development in such areas as very high speed integrated circuits. • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).— Obligations for the conduct of R&D by NASA are estimated at $2.5 billion in 1984, about equal to 1983. The 1984 request would allow NASA to pursue a vigorous program of space science, applications, and advanced technology for space projects and future aircraft. The 1984 budget proposes several new initiatives such as a Venus Radar Mapper to provide a map of the surface of Venus, a numerical aerodynamic simulation capability, and development of advanced composites for large aircraft structures. Previously approved projects such as the Space Telescope, and the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) will be continued. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 • Energy Related Activities.1—Obligations for the conduct of R&D programs currently in the Department of Energy are estimated at $4.7 billion, about the same as in 1983. However, basic research funding would be increased by $160 million, or more than 18% over 1983. Increases are proposed to strengthen the nuclear weapons R&D program, to enhance support for long-term energy research, and to maintain a strong national basic science effort in high energy and nuclear physics. These increases are offset by proposed reductions in support for nearer-term energy technologies such as fossil and solar demonstrations, where reliance is placed on private sector support. • Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).—Obligations for the conduct of R&D in HHS are proposed for an increase of $100 million, from $4.3 billion in 1983 to $4.4 billion in 1984. This represents a 12% increase over the two year period, 1982-1984. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) account for about 87% of total R&D funding by HHS. An increase of $71 million above 1983 is proposed for R&D programs of NIH, including basic research in the biomedical sciences. • National Science Foundation (NSF).—R&D obligations by NSF are expected to increase by $180 million, or 17%—to $1.2 billion in 1984. The additional funds will largely be devoted to strenthening support of basic research in the mathematical and physical sciences and engineering, that support long-term economic growth. This increase also provides additional funds for upgrading research instrumentation at universities. Table K-2 summarizes Federal support for the conduct of R&D by agency. CONDUCT OF BASIC RESEARCH The 1984 budget continues to reflect the Administration's view that investments in basic research across all scientific disciplines are critical to the long-term economic strength of the Nation and the well-being of its citizens. Basic research in such fields as mathematics, physics, chemistry, and engineering provides the foundation, in the long term, for a strong national defense, and leads to new discoveries and new technologies and industries that enhance U.S. competitiveness, employment and the quality of life. Federal Government funding for the conduct of basic research is included within the total support for the conduct of R&D. In 1984, obligations for the conduct of basic research are estimated at $6.6 billion, an increase of $594 million or 10% above the 1983 level. 1 These programs, along with other activities currently funded by the Department of Energy, will be proposed for reassignment to other Executive departments and agencies. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 TABLE K-2. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency 1982 actual Defense-Military Functions 20,576 4,758 Energy Related Activities 3,935 Health and Human Services (3,432) (National Institutes of Health) National Aeronautics and Space Administration.. 3,084 975 National Science Foundation 798 Agriculture Transportation 309 Interior 381 290 Commerce Environmental Protection Agency 335 221 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Veterans Administration 140 165 Agency for International Development All other 1 388 Total 36,354 Outlays 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 23,179 4,712 4,316 (3,771) 2,506 1,060 850 393 373 312 241 210 165 152 391 29,882 4,713 4,416 (3,842) 2,473 1,240 849 519 329 227 208 200 163 161 418 18,201 4,974 3,978 (3,438) 3,220 1,014 808 349 392 285 336 209 138 179 426 21,847 5,012 4,262 (3,737) 2,386 1,002 839 376 411 315 295 210 157 200 425 26,844 4,911 4,339 (3,808) 2,421 1,137 848 451 348 249 250 200 156 152 433 38,860 45,796 34,509 37,735 42,741 Includes the Departments of Education, Justice, Labor, Housing and Urban Development and Treasury, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Smithsonian Institution, the Corps of Engineers, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 1 This increase will result in a "real" growth in the Governmentwide support of basic research of more than 4% above 1983. For agencies primarily supporting basic reasearch in the physical and engineering sciences, particularly DOD, NASA, NSF, and including the energy-related programs currently under DOE, the increase in 1984 will be 15% over 1983. Support for basic research in the life sciences, particularly in NIH, has been growing significantly in recent years. The Administration is seeking, through emphasis on the physical and engineering sciences in the 1984 budget, to balance Federal support of basic research across all major disciplines. Enhanced support of basic research will further strengthen the scientific capability of the Nation's universities whose researchers receive about half of the total Federal obligations for basic research and conduct about half of all basic research performed in the Nation. Table K-3 summarizes Federal support for the conduct of basic research by agency. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Table K - 3 . CONDUCT OF BASIC RESEARCH BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) 1 Obligations Department or agency Agencies supporting primarily physical sciences and engineering:2 National Science Foundation Energy Related Activities Defense—Military Functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Interior Commerce Other Agencies 3 Subtotal Agencies supporting primarily life and other sciences: 4 Health and Human Services (National Institutes of Health) Agriculture Smithsonian Institution Environmental Protection Agency Veterans Administration Education Other Agencies 5 Subtotal Total Outlays 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 916 777 686 998 861 769 1,181 1,021 867 538 74 17 9 605 88 18 7 3,017 1982 actual 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 954 774 603 943 859 746 1,083 1,001 776 682 89 16 8 537 74 16 9 588 89 16 7 658 94 17 8 3,347 3,864 2,967 3,249 3,636 1,953 (1,840) 331 55 33 13 16 22 2,184 (2,049) 362 60 21 15 16 22 2,238 (2,086) 381 68 17 15 14 22 1,962 (1,835) 338 47 30 13 22 22 2,154 (2,022) 356 60 25 15 22 23 2,214 (2,068) 380 62 22 15 18 13 2,422 2,678 2,755 2,434 2,655 2,723 5,439 6,025 6,619 5,401 5,904 6,359 Amounts reported in this table are included in totals for conduct of R&D. Includes mathematics and computer sciences. Includes the Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the Department of Transportation. 4 includes psychology and social sciences. 5 Includes the Departments of Labor, Justice, and Treasury, and the Agency for International Development. 2 3 R&D FACILITIES Excellence in research and development requires the availability of modern facilities and equipment. Additional funding for research equipment and instrumentation is included in support for the conduct of R&D including basic research. Funds identified separately by Federal departments and agencies for R&D facilities are summarized in Table K-4. Obligations for R&D facilities, which include primarily construction or renovation of general purpose laboratories and research support facilities, would decrease by $54 million, to $1,195 million in 1984. Trends in the funding of R&D facilities generally reflect program directions in agency support for the conduct of R&D as described below. F- 55 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F Table K - 4 . RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency 1982 actual Energy Related Activities Defense—Military Functions National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationHealth and Human Services (National Institutes of Health) Agriculture All other 1 Total 762 290 92 29 (20) 30 30 1,234 1983 estimate 619 323 160 60 (21) 38 49 1,249 Outlays 1984 estimate 1982 actual 804 232 109 38 (35) 30 40 501 438 156 29 (26) 26 45 1,195 1,253 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 623 289 136 31 (20) 45 34 532 349 129 35 (20) 22 48 1,158 1,114 'Includes the Departments of Transportation, Commerce, Interior, and Treasury, the Agency for International Development, Veterans Administration, Tennessee Valley Authority, Smithsonian Institution and the National Science Foundation. PART II. AGENCY R & D PROGRAMS Presented below are summaries of the R&D activities of the 13 agencies whose R&D obligations individually exceed $150 million. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE The Defense R&D program is oriented toward the development of strategic and tactical weapons and supporting systems to provide for the Nation's defense. DOD obligations for the conduct of R&D in 1984 would total $29.9 billion, an increase of $6.7 billion over 1983. Within the total, funding for basic research would increase by $98 million to $867 million in 1984. R&D facilities funding would total $438 million, up from $323 million in 1983. Major R&D efforts by DOD mission category in 1984 include: Technology Base and Advanced Technology Development—The purpose of these programs is to investigate promising new technologies and to avoid technological surprise by potential adversaries. The Very High Speed Integrated Circuits program will continue to push for further miniaturization of microelectronic devices. Increased attention also will be paid to human factors in the Defense mission. Protection against chemical agents, aids for use in training of personnel and exploration of the relation between man and machine will be stressed. Other areas of focus include information processing, materials research, fault-resistant electronics and advanced computer languages. Strategic Programs.—In addition to the Peacekeeper and Trident II efforts, continued emphasis will be given to ballistic missile defense, an advanced technology bomber and an anti-satellite system. The communications and control systems that are needed for these and existing systems will also receive increased emphasis. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Tactical Programs.—Systems are under development that will improve the capability of U.S. general purpose and theater nuclear forces, and allow the rapid deployment of those forces wherever the vital interests of the U.S. are threatened. • The Army is continuing work on upgrades to the M - l tank and Bradley Fighting Vehicle System and is increasing its efforts on remotely piloted vehicles and some areas of air defense. • The Air Force is developing a deep strike interdiction version of an existing fighter aircraft, a more reliable fighter engine, an air-to-air missile and a new trainer aircraft for undergraduate pilot training. • The Navy is developing a lightweight anti-submarine torpedo, a new longer range anti-submarine missile and a new destroyer. Upgrades to current subsystems to improve detection, tracking and targeting will also increase the capability of major systems now in production. Intelligence and Communications, Program Management and Support.—R&D on intelligence and communication systems will focus on communication satellites, on radios that will work in the electronic noise of the battlefield, and on surveillance radars. Work will also continue on the use of technology to reduce manufacturing costs and to extend the life and capability of existing defense systems. Table K-5. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 2,945 750 4,846 6,750 2,104 2,538 642 3,137 826 5,747 7,222 2,686 2,869 692 3,555 1,211 8,978 8,705 3,474 3,236 722 20,576 23,179 29,882 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R&D: Research, development, test and evaluation: Technology base Advanced technology development Strategic programs Tactical programs Intelligence and communications Program management and support Other appropriations Total conduct of R&D Total conduct of basic research, included above R&D facilities Total obligations (686) 290 (769) 323 (867) 438 20,866 23,502 30,320 18,201 232 21,847 289 26,844 349 18,432 22,136 27,194 OUTLAYS Conduct of R&D R&D facilities Total outlays SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 NATO Cooperation.—Cooperation in research and development and joint production of new weapon systems will be pursued to make the best use of Alliance resources. Funding for these activities is not identified separately in Table K-5 but is included in the other categories listed in that table. Table K-5 provides the details of the Department of Defense military R&D funding. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION Through the programs of NASA, the Federal Government develops and operates the Shuttle based Space Transportation System and makes investments in R&D that yield other new space technologies to improve the national security and the long term scientific and technological strength of the Nation. NASA programs also provide new knowledge about the Earth, the solar system, and the universe. Now that the Space Shuttle is in its operational phase, it is no longer appropriate to classify all of NASA programs as R&D. Therefore, the amounts shown for 1982, 1983, and 1984 for NASA R&D exclude funding for Shuttle production and operation, tracking and data acquisition activities, and related institutional support. In 1984, R&D obligations for the agency will decrease slightly due to spending patterns on previously initiated projects, although new obligational authority for R&D activities is projected to increase by $44 million. Basic research obligations by NASA in 1984 would amount to $682 million, an increase of $77 million over 1983. Obligations for construction of R&D facilities in 1984 would total $156 million. Space Transportation.—With the initiation of Space Shuttle operations in November 1982, the major R&D phase of the Shuttle program has been concluded. A fully operational and cost effective Shuttle is essential to exploit space effectively and to help maintain U.S. leadership in space throughout this century. Space Transportation R&D activities provided by the 1984 budget include Shuttle modifications and improvements and continued development of two versions of the Centaur upper stage—a new high energy upper stage for use with the Shuttle. Also included will be a tethered satellite program to extend the use of the Shuttle to conduct scientific experiments in the boundary region between space and the Earth's upper atmosphere. The tethered satellite will be an international cooperative program with the Italian government. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 Space Science.—In this area, spacecraft in flight are conducting deep space astronomical observations from Earth orbit or exploring the solar system. • The High Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAO), launched in 1979, will continue operations and data analysis activities. • Two Voyager spacecraft, launched in 1977, have successfully encountered Jupiter and Saturn, and Voyager 2 will continue on its way to Uranus for an encounter in 1986. • The flight of several other smaller scientific satellites (e.g., International Ultraviolet Explorer) will be continued. The 1984 budget supports continuation of the flight of these satellites in space and the analysis of scientific data sent back to Earth. It also provides for the retrieval and repair in orbit of the partially disabled Solar Maximum Mission Satellite. The proposed budget continues development of major flight projects to be launched in the future. • The Space Telescope is planned for launch in 1985 and will serve as a major astronomy facility for a 15- to 20-year period. • The Gamma Ray Observatory is planned for launch in 1988 and will enhance basic research in high energy astrophysics, providing new knowledge about objects in deep space. • Spacelab astronomy experiments, designed for repeated use, will be conducted on the Shuttle to improve our understanding of the Sun and the universe. • Work is continuing on the Galileo mission to Jupiter; the spacecraft is composed of two segments—an orbiter and a probe to enter the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. The Galileo orbiter and probe will be launched in 1986 and will arrive at Jupiter in 1988 to carry out long-term studies of the planet, its satellites, and its magnetosphere. In 1984, funds are also proposed to initiate the Venus Radar mapper project, for a 1988 launch, to map the planet. A new Explorer class project for research in ultraviolet astronomy will also be initiated, recognizing the potential of lower cost missions to conduct important science experiments in space. Space and Terrestrial Applications.—The 1984 budget continues to support research that could lead to the broad application of space technology to national needs. The 1984 budget proposes continued funding for space-related research activities to: • Improve understanding of Earth resources, climate, weather, and pollution; • Advance knowledge in materials science and materials processing through low gravity experiments in space; • Extend the capability for satellite communications to higher frequencies than those employed with current satellites; SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 The 1984 budget reduction for Space and Terrestrial Applications reflects decreasing obligations in two major projects that are nearing completion, Landsat and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). However, the budget also includes increasing obligations for an Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS), while funding for other continuing programs will be maintained at about the same level as in 1983. Landsat D, the fourth in the series of experimental Earth observing satellites, was launched successfully in July 1982 and is performing satisfactorily. A follow-on satellite will be completed in 1984, ready to succeed Landsat D when needed. Space remotesensing technology, such as that employed by Landsat D, has the potential to improve our ability to manage critical Earth resources. The ERBE satellite will be launched by the Shuttle in 1984. The program is designed to provide global measurements of the level of solar and cosmic radiation absorbed by the Earth and also map levels of ozone and other aerosols in the stratosphere. Such observation will help improve our understanding of the factors that determine the Earth's climate. TABLE K-6. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 890 582 319 258 118 12 905 117 752 398 313 131 8 787 183 779 289 300 138 22 762 3,084 2,506 2,473 (605) 160 (682) 156 3,176 2,666 2,629 3,220 109 2,386 136 2,421 129 3,329 2,522 2,550 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R&D: Space transportation systems Space science Space and terrestrial applications Aeronautical research and technology Space research and technology Tracking and data acquisition Research and program management Total conduct of R&D Total conduct of basic research, included above R&D facilities Total obligations (538) 92 OUTLAYS Conduct of R&D R&D facilities Total outlays The development of the ACTS will be a joint venture of government and industry and will provide advanced, higher frequency, satellite communications technology for use later in the decade. Aeronautical Research and Technology.—The 1984 budget includes funds for a significant enhancement in new obligational H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 authority for research in fundamental aeronautical disciplines such as fluid and thermal physics, materials and structures, and propulsion. In addition, technology development at the concept, technique or component level would also be enhanced. Planned obligations for aeronautical R&D will decrease slightly in 1984 because of the extraordinary rate of obligations against prior year authority experienced in 1983. New budgetary authority would increase from $280 million in 1983 to $300 million in 1984. Funds are included for initiating in 1984, the development of a numerical aerodynamic simulation capability which will further the state-of-the-art of aerodynamic research and design and will also be an important tool for research in areas such as climate modeling and computational chemistry. The 1984 budget also provides for research and technology development related to the use of composite materials in large aircraft structures. These lightweight materials would result in longerrange and more efficient military and civil aircraft. Agency-wide support activities.—Obligations for agency-wide support activities would remain at about the 1983 level. These programs include primarily NASA civil service and administrative costs supporting R&D activities, construction and maintenance of the agency's R&D facilities, and R&D addressing fundamental space technology problems and opportunities common to a wide spectrum of space programs. Table K-6 provides the details of NASA's R&D funding. ENERGY RELATED ACTIVITIES Energy related R&D, currently supported by the Department of Energy, covers a broad range of activities: a National Defense Program related to the development and testing of nuclear weapons: a General Science Program of basic research in high energy physics and nuclear sciences; and an Energy Program focused on long-term R&D. Table K-7 provides summary information on the funding of these programs. Obligations for the conduct of energy related R&D (including facilities) are estimated to total $5.2 billion in 1984, a decrease of $117 million from 1983. Obligations in 1984 for R&D facilities, including the construction or upgrading of laboratories and other research support facilities, will amount to $501 million. Obligations for the conduct of basic research, included in the total for the conduct of R&D, are estimated to be slightly over $1 billion in 1984. This represents an increase of $160 million, or more than 18% over the 1983 level. Within the basic research total, $82 million would be provided to initiate a number of major new projects in both the Energy Program and the General Science Pro- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 gram, that will significantly improve the Nation's capacity for basic research at the frontiers of science. These include: • initiation of a national advanced materials research center at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory to improve the linkages among academic, national laboratory, and industry scientists for the future advancement of high technology industries; • expansion of the National Synchrotron Light Source at Brookhaven National Laboratory to meet the growing need of industry, national laboratories, and universities for this research tool; • building on a rapid time scale, a linear colliding beam accelerator at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center to demonstrate the feasibility of new techniques for very high energy electron-positron collisions; • upgrading of on-campus Van de Graaff accelerators at the University of Washington and Yale University to maintain the performance capabilities of two essential components of the university based nuclear physics research program; and • a $6 million university instrumentation procurement program to provide large state-of-the-art equipment used in energyrelated research areas. Highlights of the Energy related R&D activities by major programs are provided below: The National Defense Program primarily supports the continued development and testing of nuclear weapons. It also supports the development of improved technologies for monitoring nuclear weapons treaties and of improved methods for safeguarding nuclear materials. In addition R&D efforts will continue in developing methods for the safe storage and disposal of radioactive wastes resulting from weapons production, and research on improved propulsion reactors for naval vessels. Obligations for the National Defense Program for the conduct of R&D will increase from $1.7 billion in 1983 to $1.9 billion in 1984. Funds for R&D facilities in 1984 include construction of the Waste Isolation Plant (WIPP) in New Mexico for R&D on disposal of nuclear waste. Conduct of R&D increases provide funds for staff additions to strengthen the national weapons laboratories, for increased weapons tests, and for increased research in the basic physics of nuclear weapons. The General Science Program supports research in high energy and nuclear physics. An increase of $90 million, to $643 million in 1984, for the conduct of basic research will continue support for advanced accelerator concepts as well as for theoretical efforts to understand the basic constituents of matter and energy and the forces that govern their interaction. Because of the exceptional research opportunities in high energy physics and the demonstrated excellence of the U.S. program, the Administration is committed H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 to maintaining a strong national effort in this field. The 1984 budget request would provide for (a) increased utilization of existing accelerator facilities, (b) operation of the newly completed (1983) Energy Saver Superconducting Synchroton at Fermilab in the 500-1,000 GeV energy range, and (c) continuation of the construction at Fermilab of the Tevatron I and II projects which will provide increased proton-fixed target and proton-antiproton colliding beam capabilities. Funds will also be provided for upgrading accelerators at Yale University and the University of Washington and for initiation of the Stanford Linear Collider (SLC). The Energy Program is focused in 1984 on long-term R&D to complement industry investments in new or improved energy technologies. It supports basic and generic research to enhance the scientific base for future advances in these technologies and continues support for the development of selected technologies of a high risk but potentially high payoff nature, such as magnetic fusion, where significant private investment is unlikely. In addition, the Energy Program includes research on the environmental and human health effects of energy production technologies. Energy Program obligations for the conduct of R&D would decrease from $2.4 billion in 1983 to $2.2 billion in 1984, largely reflecting net savings from proposed reductions in non-nuclear technology development and demonstration activities. Obligations for R&D facilities in this area would be $152 million, a reduction of $84 million, paralleling the reduction in the conduct of R&D. In the basic energy sciences, funding for the conduct of R&D and related facilities will increase by $67 million to $350 million in 1984 for research in such fields as nuclear science, chemistry, engineering, materials science, mathematics, biology, and geoscience. This program provides the fundamental scientific and technical base for future advances in technology development. In addition, it provides support for the operation of several unique national facilities such as the National Synchrotron Light Source (NSLS) at the Brookhaven National Laboratory, the High Voltage Electron Microscope at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL), and the Electromagnetic Isotope Separation Plant (calutrons) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In 1984 a national materials research center at LBL and an upgrade of the NSLS facility will be initiated. The 1984 budget will continue the redirection of the non-nuclear R&D programs to limit federal support to long-term generic research and place greater reliance on the private sector for support of nearer-term technology development. Obligations for the conduct of R&D in the fossil, solar and conservation programs are expected to be $302 million in 1984, a decrease of $405 million from 1983. Funding for the conduct of fossil related R&D and associated facilities would be $138 million in 1984, a decrease of $234 million. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 The 1984 budget is focused on research to strengthen the technical base for future fossil technology development. Support would continue to be provided in such areas as the chemistry of coal conversion, environmental controls, combustion research, and the understanding of the behavior of oil and gas reservoirs. Research in support of solar energy, proposed at a level of $87 million, will emphasize materials development for a variety of applications and continue to support research in the areas of solar thermal, photovoltaics, biomass, and wind conversion. In 1983, work on the international SOLERAS agreement will be completed. Research to foster energy conservation will be focused on improved understanding of energy losses in building systems, research on alternative heat engines, and development of advanced technologies for electrical systems and energy storage. Technology demonstrations in industrial, transportation, and buildings and community systems conservation will be scaled down in 1984. Conduct of R&D for energy conservation in 1984 would be $84 million. The 1984 budget provides for a broad program of research in fission and fusion energy sources R&D. In the magnetic fusion program, funding of $467 million for the conduct of R&D and associated facilities would enable the continuation of investigations, at about the 1983 program level, of key physics issues involved with confined plasmas and further research on superconducting magnets, high power radiofrequency electronics, advanced materials development, and mathematical computer modeling needed for fusion technology development. Within the fission effort the breeder reactor program will be funded at $603 million in 1984, maintaining a priority for the design and construction of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR). In addition, long-range research will continue in support of breeder technology. Total funding for the conduct of breeder R&D will increase by $62 million over 1983. Other nuclear fission research areas such as nuclear fuel cycle, converter reactors systems, and advanced nuclear systems are funded for conduct of R&D and associated facilities at a level of $129 million for 1984. Additional funds are proposed for nuclear safety and commercial nuclear waste management research. For example, in cooperation with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, technical investigations associated with the disabled Three Mile Island nuclear power reactor will be supported. The fission R&D program will also seek to resolve technical issues associated with the construction of a permanent repository for nuclear waste. Obligations for these activities in 1984 will total $69 million. Finally, the Energy Program supports R&D to determine the biological and environmental effects of energy production and use. The biological and environmental research R&D emphasizes the H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 health effects of radiation, the use of radiation in medical diagnosis and therapy, and generic biological research related to radiation and other cellular traumas. The level of obligation for such activities will be $158 million in 1984. This effort also supports research to determine the relationship between the CO2 content of the atmosphere and the earth's climate changes. Funding in 1984 for CO2 studies will total $12 million. Table K - 7 . ENERGY RELATED ACTIVITIES 1 (In millions of dollars) Type of activity 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1,526 500 2,731 1,727 553 2,432 1,905 643 2,165 4,758 4,712 4,713 (777) 762 (861) 619 (1,021) 501 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R&D: National defense program General science program Energy program Total conduct of R&D Total conduct of basic research, included above R&D facilities Total obligations 5,519 5,331 5,214 4,974 804 5,012 623 4,911 532 5,778 5,635 5,443 OUTLAYS Conduct of R&D R&D facilities Total outlays 'These programs, currently supported by the Department of Energy, will be proposed for reassignment to other Executive departments and agencies. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) obligations in 1984 for the conduct of R&D would increase by $100 million over the 1983 level to a total of $4.4 billion. Within this total, funding for basic research is estimated to be $2.2 billion. Obligations for R&D facilities would total $29 million in 1984. This represents a decline from the $60 million provided in 1983. The higher level of obligations in 1983 was primarily due to the nonrecurring costs for a single large project—construction of the new research headquarters for the Food and Drug Administration. Health.—Over 87% of the Department's funds for the conduct of R&D and over 93% of the Department's basic research funds would be obligated by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for biomedical research to advance the Nation's capabilities for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease. Several other agencies within the Department—the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control, the Health Resources and Services SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Administration, the Health Care Financing Administration, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health—also support R&D programs in health related research. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) consist of 11 separate Institutes which would obligate $3.8 billion in 1984 for the conduct of R&D, an increase of $71 million above the 1983 level; over onehalf or $2.1 billion of NIH's total 1984 R&D budget would support basic research. Among the most significant activities to be supported by NIH are: • Basic research on cancer chemoprevention including studies of nutritional factors; rehabilitation of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; prevention of glaucoma; diagnostic imaging, and the biological response to mixtures of chemicals; • Clinical research where the emphasis is on intervention, including prototype development and refinement of products, techniques, processes, methods, and practices; • Expansion of cooperative clinical trials on the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome/Kaposi Sarcoma problems; isolated systolic hypertension in the elderly; herpes simplex virus vaccine; and antiviral drugs against neonatal herpes, herpes encephalitis, herpes genitalis; the efficacy of interferon for controlling the frequency and severity of multiple sclerosis; gonococcal vaccines and the prevention of premature labor and the role of folic acid in neural tube defects; and • Greater emphasis on basic clinical research into the cause, cure, and prevention of diabetes. The Alcohol, Drug Abuse and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA) conducts studies on the causes, prevention and treatment of alcohol and drug abuse and mental disease and neurological disorders, with emphasis on improving knowledge of effective prevention of these public health problems. The 1984 budget proposes increases in levels for extramural research programs in biomedical, behaviorial and clinical areas. Obligations for ADAMHA would increase in 1984 to $314 million, an increase of $36 million over 1983. Specific research areas would address: • Neurosciences, behavioral sciences, psychopharmacology, and clinical investigations and evaluations of services to the mentally ill, with special emphasis on preventing and diagnosing mental and emotional problems in children; • Drug abuse among the Nation's youth, including studies on the adverse health hazards of marihuana and cocaine; and • Causes and consequences of alcohol abuse, particularly among teenagers. 380-700 0 - 83 - 23 QL : 3 H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1984 The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) supports research relevant to its mission of regulating food, drugs, and biological and radiological products. In 1984, obligations for these activities are estimated at $82 million. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) supports studies on the epidemiology and control of communicable diseases and on health promotion and disease prevention. In 1984, obligations for these activities are estimated at $75 million. Other Health Related Agencies within HHS would support research in areas such as how socioeconomic facts affect social security programs and the economy; survey methods and techniques for analysis of health statistics; and the organization, delivery, and financing of health services. This support will be provided through programs of the Health Resources and Services Administration, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health and the Health Care Financing Administration. Human Services.—The Department's obligations for R&D in human services programs in 1984 would be $53 million, $11 million below 1983. The proposed 1984 budget would support a variety of developmental and social service research aimed at improving the Head Start program; the quality of life for the elderly; knowledge of child abuse and neglect; day care systems; family and community support systems and fostering independence for the disabled. Table K-8 provides the details of the R&D funding of the Department of Health and Human Services. NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION The National Science Foundation (NSF) supports primarily basic research in all scientific disciplines through grants to scientists and engineers in academic institutions. NSF programs serve to advance scientific knowledge. Foundation support is particularly important because it complements the basic research programs of other agencies and assists in balancing Federal support for promising research across all fields of science and engineering. The 1984 NSF budget includes $1.2 billion in obligations for the conduct of R&D, an increase of $180 million or 17 percent above 1983. This would provide a growth of about 12 percent in addition to cost increases due to inflation. Within this increase, support for the conduct of basic research would increase by about 18 percent. Specifically, the 1984 budget would: • Provide special emphasis on disciplines such as mathematics, materials science, astronomy, and electrical, computer, and chemical engineering. Research in these disciplines has the potential to make important contributions to the long term SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 Table K-8. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity and organizational units 1982 actual 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 3,432 243 73 75 12 29 16 3,771 278 77 70 10 30 16 3,842 314 82 75 1 30 18 3,879 4,252 4,362 26 17 13 23 26 15 11 31 11 56 64 53 3,935 4,316 4,416 (1,953) 29 (2,184) 60 (2,238) 29 3,964 4,376 4,444 3,978 38 4,262 31 4,339 35 4,015 4,292 4,374 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R&D: Health: National Institutes of Health Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Food and Drug Administration Centers for Disease Control Health Resources and Services Administration Health Care Financing Administration Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health Subtotal, Health Human Services: Office of Human Development Services Social Security Administration Departmental Management Subtotal, Human Services Total conduct of R&D Total conduct of basic research, included above R&D facilities Total obligations Conduct of R&D R&D facilities Total outlays OUTLAYS competitiveness of the U.S. economy, particularly in high technology dependent industries. • Provide $180 million in 1984, an increase of 61% over 1983, for upgrading research instrumentation primarily at universities. This sharp increase is included within the support for the conduct of basic research. Along with funds provided for this purpose in other agencies, the increase in the NSF budget would enhance research productivity by helping to alleviate the problem of growing obsolescence of research instrumentation at universities. It would also help ensure that future scientists and engineers are trained in the use of modern research instrumentation and techniques. • Fund the continuation of the deep sea drilling project to provide scientific geologic information related to the Earth's crust, ocean sediments, geochemistry and paleontology. In addition, the 1984 budget proposes increased funding in the U.S. Antarctic program for improvement of logistic support. These improvements are critical to the conduct of a safe and effective H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 research program and to the maintenance of an active and influential U.S presence in Antarctica. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE The Department of Agriculture supports research and development in several disciplines related to agriculture and forestry. Obligations of the Department for the conduct of research and development are estimated to total $849 million in 1984, a decrease of $1 million from 1983. Of the total, $381 million would support basic research, an increase of $19 million over the 1983 expected obligations of $362 million. The Department's 1984 budget is highlighted below by major bureau: The Agricultural Research Service (ARS) would obligate $458 million for research designed to produce new knowledge and technologies required to assure the continuing vitality of the Nation's food and agriculture enterprise. This represents an increase of $12 million over 1983. In 1984, increased emphasis would be placed on genetic engineering in the plant and animal sciences, human nutrition research, and improved post-harvest technologies. In addition, a new program of post-doctoral fellowships in ARS laboratories would be initiated. Short term applied research and development would continue to receive reduced Federal effort, since such activities are more appropriately financed by the private sector. The Cooperative State Research Service would obligate $222 million to maintain support of the cooperative program with institutions in 50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa and Micronesia engaged in research in agriculture, forestry, veterinary medicine, and the rural home and the community. Also, the budget would continue the competitive grants program in basic research important to increasing the efficiency of food production and improving human nutrition. For the first time, competitive grants for research in the animal sciences would be made. The Forest Service would obligate $101 million, a decrease of $4 million from 1983, to provide knowledge needed to manage and protect forest and related rangeland resources to gain maximum economic and social benefits from their use. Research would be conducted on: genetics; silviculture and timber management; watershed management; wildlife, range and fish habitats; protection for forest resources from fire and forest pests; surface environment and mining; forest engineering and utilization; and economics of forest commodity production, processing and distribution. In addition, $68 million would be obligated in other departmental programs for economic research, international cooperation and de- SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 velopment, transportation of commodities, nutrition information, and statistical reporting. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE The Department of Commerce has responsibility for ocean science and engineering research, meteorological research and forecasting, and for maintaining measurement standards. The 1984 budget would continue these programs in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Bureau of Standards (NBS), and other areas of the Department. Obligations for the conduct of R&D by the Department in 1984 are estimated at $227 million, a decrease of $86 million from 1983. This decrease applies largely to relatively nearer term applied research and development, more appropriately the responsibility of the private sector. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).— NOAA would continue R&D programs to develop systems and components for nautical and aeronautical mapping and charting; ocean engineering systems in support of NOAA ocean research and operational programs; better ways to conserve, protect, and manage the Nation's fishery resources; new and improved fishing equipment to protect endangered and/or threatened species; and timely and accurate meteorological, hydrologic, and oceanographic forecasting, detecting and tracking systems for protection of life and property. Obligations for the conduct of R&D by NOAA in 1984 would decrease from $194 million to $135 million. This reduction reflects decreases in applied areas, more appropriately supported by the private sector. National Bureau of Standards (NBS).—R&D efforts for NBS are aimed at developing and maintaining a system of measurement required to support the Nation's industrial and scientific endeavors. In 1984, NBS is expected to obligate $78 million for the conduct of R&D. This represents a $16 million decrease from 1983. Funding for the following programs would be terminated or reduced on the grounds that such research can and should be supported by the private sector: fire science and engineering ($6 million), building research ($3 million), ADP standards ($6 million), and recycled oil ($1 million). Other Commerce R&D Activities.—Funding for smaller research and development programs in the Department of Commerce, which include those in the Bureau of the Census, the Patent and Trademark Office, and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, would be $14 million in 1984. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR The R&D activities of the Department of the Interior derive from its broad-ranging responsibilities for management of the Nation's natural resources, including developing energy and mineral resources, restoring and preserving wildlife habitats and wilderness areas, and improving the quality of our water resources. Obligations for the conduct of R&D for the Department of the Interior for 1984 are estimated at $329 million. This represents a decrease of approximately $44 million from the 1983 level, primarily in applied mining and applied geological research. Almost 90% of the Department's 1984 funds for the conduct of R&D would be obligated by the Geological Survey ($136 million), Fish and Wildlife Service ($89 million), and Bureau of Mines ($68 million). Highlights of the 1984 research objectives of these and other departmental programs are described below. The Geological Survey undertakes research on the extent, distribution, and character of the Nation's natural resources and on the geologic processes, structures, and hazards that affect the development and use of the land and physical environment. Research priorities in 1984 would include continued development of: • Accurate appraisals of land and mineral resources; • New and improved methods of mineral exploration; • An improved scientific basis for investigation and measurement of water resources; and • Basic data on geologic principles and processes. The Fish and Wildlife Service supports research performed in the Service's laboratories and field stations, and through cooperative efforts with State fish and game departments. It also provides Federal aid to States for research on restoration of fish and wildlife resources. This research provides basic biological information about species numbers, population dynamics, ecological relationships, and habitat requirements. In 1984, the Service would support research activities concerned with: • The habitat of waterfowl, migratory birds, mammals and nonmigratory birds; • Endangered and threatened species status, distribution and threats; • Impact of broad-scale environmental changes on fish and wildlife populations and habitat; and • Fish husbandry and aquaculture. The Bureau of Mines conducts basic and applied research across the minerals cycle to improve our understanding of the principles of mining and minerals processing, and to reduce associated health hazards. Reductions are proposed in applied research, particularly in projects of a commercial nature which are more appropriate for the private sector to support. Basic research is proposed to increase SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F F- 55 by 22% through reallocations of funds from applied research projects. The 1984 budget reflects an increased emphasis on strategic and critical minerals R&D activities and would stress: • Long-range, high-risk research in extractive metallurgy technology that may result in new processing methods; • Development of domestic source substitutes for imported strategic and critical minerals; • Health-related research on the proper quality and quantity of air flow in underground mines; and • Longer-term, generic research on fire and explosion prevention, methane and underground control,' industrial hazards, post-disaster survival and rescue, explosives, and systems engineering. Other Departmental Programs would provide for: • Development of technology to generate additional water supplies by cloud seeding techniques; and • Development of new materials, planning tools, design and construction techniques to solve problems arising in the development and operation of water resources projects. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION The Department of Transportation's R&D program is oriented toward providing the information and new technology needed for its own operational (e.g., air traffic control) programs and for regulatory (e.g., automotive and aircraft safety standards) programs. Obligations for the conduct of research and development by the Department are estimated at $519 million for 1984, an increase of $126 million over 1983. The Department's 1984 budget for R&D, with explanations of major changes from 1983, is highlighted below by agency. The Federal Aviation Administration would obligate $304 million in 1984. The proposed 1984 R&D obligations for FAA represent an increase over 1983 of $161 million. A major portion of this increase occurs in the advanced computer, aviation weather, communications and systems programs. This increase would allow greater emphasis on engineering work to enhance the safety and efficiency of the national air traffic control system, and on emerging technology to improve collision avoidance systems and enroute and terminal air traffic control systems. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration would obligate $57 million for motor vehicle research, traffic safety research and demonstrations emphasizing safety belt usage, alcohol counter measures, and for analytical studies. In 1984, a small increase is planned for highway safety research in support of the safety belt program. The National Accident Sampling System which provides H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 for the collection and analysis of nationally representative accident and injury data would be continued. The Urban Mass Transportation Administration would obligate $46 million to assist in the development of improved mass transportation systems, equipment and procedures. Emphasis would be placed on research aimed at improving the operation and maintenance of existing transit systems. The Federal Highway Administration would obligate $49 million to continue research programs in highway planning, design, construction, and maintenance to insure an effective and efficient highway system. Research would also be conducted in identifying, and correcting impediments to highway safety and on improving truck safety. The Federal Railroad Administration would obligate $17 million to continue highest priority safety research. This would result in more cost-effective safety compliance and enforcement techniques. The Maritime Administration would obligate $13 million to improve the productivity and competitive posture of the U.S. maritime industries. This level is $4 million below the 1983 budget. The U.S. Coast Guard would obligate $22 million to support research to maintain and improve search and rescue systems, environmental protection, marine safety, aids to navigation, and the enforcement of laws and treaties, and activities affecting all Coast Guard missions. The proposed 1984 figure represents an increase of $2 million above the 1983 level. The Research and Special Programs Administration would obligate $5 million to support emergency preparedness and mobilization, hazardous materials and pipeline safety regulatory programs, and long range university research. The Office of the Secretary would obligate $7 million for broadbased policy research on domestic and international transportation issues of importance to the Nation. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducts research and development in support of the Agency's regulatory and enforcement missions. For 1984, EPA's R&D program will focus on three major concerns: (1) better linkage of research to the Agency's regulatory priorities; (2) greater attention to quality assurance to improve the reliability of scientific data used in Agency decisions; and (3) restructuring the Agency's long-range basic research program. Total obligations for EPA's R&D program in 1984 are proposed to be $208 million, a decrease of 14% from 1983. This reduction reflects completion of major research to support regulatory decisions SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 and reductions for development of pollution control technologies. EPA's major research activities are highlighted below. The acid rain/energy research program will be increased to understand better the phenomena of acid deposition. Specifically, a comprehensive atmospheric field study will be initiated, dry deposition monitoring will be accelerated, and watershed research studies will be expanded. Research in support of the Limestone Injection Multistage Burner (LIMB) control technology will be continued. The hazardous waste research program will support efforts on land disposal of hazardous waste, post-closure monitoring of land disposal facilities, screening protocols for hazardous wastes, and research support for permitting hazardous waste disposal facilities. The Superfund research program will maintain its research efforts at 1983 levels. However, funding will shift from engineering activities to monitoring and environmental effects research which are closely associated with current field work at hazardous waste sites. Funds for this research program are derived from the Hazardous Substance Response Trust Fund which is funded primarily by a tax on oil and chemical industries. The drinking water research program will strengthen risk assessments, health research, and monitoring for the Drinking Water Program. Resources for groundwater transport and fate research are maintained at 1983 levels. Work will continue on revising the Primary Drinking Water regulations. The air research program will continue the development of comprehensive health risk assessments for hazardous air pollutants, improve monitoring methods for sampling and analyzing non-criteria organic pollutants and improve air quality dispersion models. The water quality research program will emphasize research on ocean dumping and water-quality based pollution control requirements. In the municipal wastewater area, research will focus on innovative and alternative wastewater treatment technologies and more efficient sludge management techniques. Industrial wastewater research will be reduced reflecting completion of the effluent guidelines effort and will be refocused to support the waste water permitting program. The toxic substances research program will increase development of health risk assessment models. Total research funding is slightly lower in 1984 reflecting the completion of a major monitoring study and completion of engineering technical support for the review of chemicals. The interdisciplinary research program will continue to support the Agency's research centers, long-term research grants, and development of economic benefits methods. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performs research in civil uses of nuclear materials and facilities consistent with public health and safety, environmental quality, and national security. A major share of NRC's effort is devoted to research connected with the use of nuclear energy to generate electric power. Its research objective is to provide safety and analytical methods for assuring the quality of NRC's licensing procedures and regulatory work. In 1984, NRC's obligations for the conduct of R&D are expected to decrease from $210 to $200 million. This reduction from 1983 is due primarily to the transfer of work at the Loss of Fluid Test Facility (LOFT) to an international consortium. Key areas, such as accident evaluation and mitigation and systems reliability analysis will be strengthened. In addition, reactor safety research, principally on the Clinch River Fast Breeder Reactor, will be continued. VETERANS ADMINISTRATION The Veterans Administration (VA) conducts and administers medical, rehabilitation, and health services research. In 1984 this agency would obligate $163 million, for the conduct of R&D. The VA intramural biomedical research program is designed to benefit patients through increased quality and effectiveness of health care delivery. Priorities for 1984 include special research on Agent Orange, alcoholism, aging, and post-traumatic stress. In rehabilitation research, the VA focuses on problems in the field of prosthetics, orthotics, wheelchairs, spinal cord injury and sensory aides for improving the care and rehabilitation of disabled veterans, including amputees, paraplegics and the blind. The health services research program supports projects at VA facilities to improve the effectiveness, economy, and accessibility of health care services. In addition, emphasis will be placed on research relevant to health care delivery to veterans and the services provided to them. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Research and development activities of the Agency for International Development (AID) consist mainly of applied research to solve specific problems associated with basic human needs and social and economic research aimed at improving U.S. and host country understanding of the barriers to development. Obligations of AID for the conduct of R&D are estimated at $161 million in 1984, an increase of $9 million over 1983. Programs under AID reflect the administration's recognition of the importance of R&D in addressing the problems faced by the Third World. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F F- 55 The majority of AID's 1984 R&D funds will be devoted to three critical problems: food production, with an emphasis on affecting developing country efforts to overcome the growing food crisis; population growth, emphasizing methods of controlling increasing population growth rates in the developing countries; and energy supply, emphasizing renewable and nonconventional energy sources critical for development to proceed. OTHER AGENCY PROGRAMS An additional 9 departments and agencies (listed in table K-2, footnote 1) would obligate an estimated $418 million in 1984, for the conduct of R&D, an increase of $27 million over the 1983 total. Obligations by these agencies amount to less than 1% of all federally funded programs in R&D. The programs of these agencies, like those of other agencies discussed above, are closely related to the agencies' missions. Among the agencies in this category that expect to increase their obligations for R&D in 1984 are the Smithsonian Institution, Housing and Urban Development, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the Departments of Justice, Labor, and Treasury. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Table K-9 provides information on the long-term trends in Federal funding for the conduct of R&D. H-10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1984 TABLE K-9. TRENDS IN CONDUCT OF R&D (Obligations in billions of dollars) Defense1 195 3 195 4 195 5 195 6 195 7 195 8 195 9 196 0 196 1 196 2 196 3 196 4 196 5 196 6 196 7 196 8 196 9 197 0 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 198 2 1983 (estimate).. 1984 (estimate).. 1 2 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.8 5.6 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.3 7.5 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.1 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.9 12.6 13.6 15.1 17.8 22.1 24.9 31.8 All other .3 .3 .4 .5 .6 .8 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.4 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.4 12.1 13.8 15.4 16.6 17.2 2 14.3 2 14.0 2 14.0 Includes military-related R&D programs of the Departments of Defense and Energy. Excludes NASA funding for shuttle production and operation, tracking and data acquisition activities, and related institutional support.