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SPECIAL ANALYSIS A CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables and text of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds In the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each special analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires that the President submit to the Congress estimates of the outlays and budget authority needed to maintain current Government services and activity levels. The Act defines the current services levels as . . . the estimated outlays and proposed budget authority which would be included in the Budget to be submitted pursuant to section 201 of the Budget and Accounting Act, 1921, for the ensuing fiscal year if all programs and activities were carried on during such ensuing fiscal year at the same level as the fiscal year in progress and without policy changes in such programs and activities. The Act further requires the President to submit the economic and programmatic assumptions underlying the estimates and calls for the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress to review and evaluate the estimates. Since current services estimates show what outlays, receipts, and budget authority would be if no policy changes were made, they provide a base with which the administration's budget proposals, or other proposals, may be compared. Such comparisons are made in various parts of the budget and serve to highlight the effects of recommended policy changes.1 The current services estimates are based on the same economic assumptions as the President's budget proposals. Changes in economic conditions significantly affect budget estimates because of their effects on tax receipts, unemployment benefits, and other programs under which spending varies with the unemployment, interest, and inflation rates. As a result, if different economic assumptions were used, it would be very difficult to separate the effects of policy differences from the effects of differences in the economic assumptions. The economic assumptions assume that all the President's budget proposals will be adopted. Continuation of all programs and tax laws unchanged at current services levels would probably result in somewhat different economic conditions than would occur under the budget proposals. For the 1983 budget, however, the 1 Summary comparisons are in the Budget of the United States Government Fiscal Year 1983 Part 3. 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 differences are small compared to the uncertainties inherent in the economic forecast. The economic assumptions common to the budget and the current services estimates are summarized in table A-l. For further details and discussion of these economic assumptions, see Part 2 in the 1983 Budget Table A - l . SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (Calendar years) Gross national product (in billions of current dollars) Change in constant dollar GNP (percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter).. Unemployment rate (percent, fourth quarter) GNP deflator (percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter) Consumer Price Index (percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter) Federal nondefense non-pay purchases deflator (percent change, fiscal year over fiscal year) State and local purchases deflator (percent change, fiscal year over fiscal year) Interest rate, 91-day Treasury bills (percent) Federal pay raise, October (percent): Military Civilian 1981 1982 1983 2,922 0.7 8.4 8.6 9.4 3,160 3.0 8.4 7.2 6.6 3,524 5.2 7.6 5.5 5.1 17.6 8.6 14.1 8.2 8.6 11.7 6.5 7.8 10.5 14.3 4.8 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.6 THE CURRENT SERVICES CONCEPT The current services estimates are neither recommended amounts nor forecasts as to what the budget for 1982 and 1983 will actually be. Rather, they provide a base against which budgetary alternatives may be assessed. This base embodies the cumulative effects of all past congressional and Presidential budgetary choices. Since the estimates indicate the near-term budgetary implications of the current directions of Federal programs, they in effect answer the question: "How would the budget come out if we simply left the Federal Government on automatic pilot through next year?" A guiding principle in establishing a conceptual basis for the current services estimates was to make the results useful to the Congress and the public. The current services concepts used in this analysis, and in previous current services estimates submitted by the executive branch, are not the only concepts possible. Different concepts may be useful for different purposes. Under the current concepts, the current services estimates for 1983 reflect the expected costs of continuing ongoing Federal programs at 1982 levels in real terms, without policy change; that is, they omit all proposed and pending new initiatives, Presidential or congressional, that are not now enacted. In general, the 1982 level on which the current services estimates are based is that which is authorized or implied by enacted 1982 appropriations or continuing resolutions. The estimates allow for the future implications of current law, and for SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 5 anticipated changes of a relatively uncontrollable nature (as distinct from policy changes)—such as increases in the number of social security retirees. The current services estimates reflect the effects of inflation on virtually all budget accounts, including discretionary programs. The current services estimates thus provide a "constant real program" base against which to measure the President's budget. Specific guidelines for this year's detailed programmatic estimates are: —For entitlement programs (such as social security), the current services estimates take into account inflation adjustments that are mandatory under current law, changes in the benefit base (usually determined by past earnings), and changes in the anticipated numbers of beneficiaries. —Individual grants to State and local governments in 1983 are assumed to support the same program levels or to be funded at the same real (constant-dollar) amounts as in 1982 unless the grants are: (a) set by law at specified amounts; (b) tied by legislation to cost-of-living increases or the unemployment rate; (c) affected by changes in beneficiary populations or other factors that affect benefit payments under entitlement programs; or (d) affected by spending from prior-year commitments (for example, highway grants). —Entitlement programs that are not linked by law to the cost-ofliving (such as veterans compensation) are assumed to remain level in real (constant-dollar) amounts except for changes in the benefit base and in the number of people eligible. —Procurement and construction activities are assumed to proceed in an orderly fashion, consistent with current law and past appropriation levels. Outlays for these programs are largely determined by prior-year contracts and obligations. Some appropriations provide for anticipated inflation in the cost of multiyear projects. In other cases, however, current services estimates may reflect constraints on spending levels imposed by available funding. —Outlays for Federal pay are assumed to increase at rates comparable to private sector pay. The October 1982 pay raise is projected to be 8.0% on this basis. —Interest on the public debt is estimated on the basis of the current services deficit and the same interest rate assumptions as are used in computing the budget estimates for interest. —Offsetting receipts are estimated on the basis of judgment as to their most likely level, assuming no change in current law. —Budget authority for certain major trust funds consists of trust fund receipts. These are estimated using standard revenue estimating techniques. 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 —Proposed rescissions of budget authority are not reflected. —It is assumed that deferral actions continue in effect for the period specified in the special message transmitted to the Congress under the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 (unless they have been overturned by the Congress). Many Federal programs are authorized for a limited number of years, but are routinely renewed. If authority for such a program is scheduled to expire before or during 1983, it is assumed for purposes of current services estimates that it will be renewed. Programs that are clearly temporary in nature, such as temporary study commissions, are assumed to expire. The estimates of receipts on a current services basis assume that future tax changes will occur as scheduled under current law. Provisions that are clearly temporary in nature are assumed to expire. Table A-2. CURRENT SERVICES TOTALS (In billions of dollars) 1981 actual Receipts Outlays Deficit ( - ) Budget authority 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 599.3 657.2 626.4 726.4 653.3 779.3 -57.9 -100.0 -126.0 718.4 775.1 833.9 CURRENT SERVICES TOTALS Current services outlays are estimated to be $779.3 billion in 1983, 7.3% higher than in 1982, and budget authority is estimated to be $833.9 billion, an increase of 7.6% over 1982. Receipts for 1983 are estimated to increase 4.3% on a current services basis, from $626.4 billion in 1982 to $653.3 billion in 1983. The resulting 1983 current services deficit is $126.0 billion, $26.0 billion higher than the $100.0 billion deficit for 1982. Receipts.—Table A-3 shows receipts by major source on a current services basis. For purposes of comparison, receipts under the administration's proposals for 1983 are also shown. Current services receipts are projected to increase by $26.9 billion from 1982 to 1983, largely due to assumed increases in incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation. These estimates assume that the temporary provisions of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 will expire as scheduled under current law. Individual income taxes are estimated to increase by $2.5 billion from 1982 to 1983 on a current services basis. This increase of 0.8% is the effect of rising personal incomes, partially offset by the 7 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A individual income tax reductions provided in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, which are estimated to rise from $28.2 billion in 1982 to $75.4 billion in 1983. Corporation income taxes are estimated to increase by $9.5 billion, or 20.4%, from 1982 to 1983 on a current services basis, largely as a result of higher corporate profits. Social insurance taxes are estimated to increase by $17.2 billion on a current services basis. The estimate reflects assumed increases in total wages and salaries paid, increases in the social security taxable earnings base to $32,400 in calendar year 1982 and the scheduled increase to $35,100 in 1983, and the increase in the combined employer-employee social security tax rate to 13.4% on January 1, 1982. Table A-3. CURRENT SERVICES RECEIPTS BY SOURCE (In billions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Social insurance taxes and contributions Excise taxes Other Total 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration estimates 285.9 61.1 182.7 40.8 28.7 298.5 46.7 206.5 42.9 31.9 301.0 56.2 223.6 40.4 32.1 304.5 65.3 222.5 41.7 32.1 599.3 626.4 653.3 666.1 On a current services basis, excise taxes are estimated to decrease by $2.4 billion, or 5.7%, from 1982 to 1983. This decrease is due to a $2.9 billion decline in estimated windfall profit tax receipts that is only partially offset by a $0.4 billion rise in other excise taxes. Other receipts (estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and miscellaneous receipts) are projected to increase by $0.2 billion from 1982 to 1983 on a current services basis, largely as a result of increased economic activity. Outlays.—The level of outlays necessary to continue ongoing Federal programs and activities at 1982 levels without policy changes is estimated at $779.3 billion in 1983. The increase in current services outlays from 1982 to 1983 is $52.9 billion. Table A-4 shows current services outlays by function. Estimates by agency are presented in table A-5. The greatest dollar increases from 1982 to 1983 occur in the income security, national defense, interest, and health functions, largely due to increases in the number of beneficiaries, cost-of-living adjustments, increases in the prices of goods and services purchased or financed and, in the case of interest, increased borrowing requirements. 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-4. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION (In billions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual National defense International affairs General science, space, and technology Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services... Health Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance Interest Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Reduction of fraud, waste and abuse Undistributed debt collection Undistributed offsetting receipts.Employer share, employee retirement Interest received by trust funds Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf. Federal surplus property disposition Total outlays., 159.8 11.1 6.4 10.3 13.5 5.6 3.9 23.4 9.4 31.4 66.0 225.1 23.0 4.7 4.6 6.9 82.5 1982 estimate 186.2 11.1 6.9 6.4 12.6 8.6 3.3 21.1 8.4 28.2 74.0 251.5 24.2 4.6 4.9 6.4 99.1 0.4 1983 estimate 202.3 11.7 7.6 5.5 10.7 4.5 3.6 20.9 7.3 26.7 82.5 271.5 24.9 4.8 4.8 6.6 115.1 1.5 -6.4 -13.8 -10.1 -7.6 -7.7 -16.1 -16.1 -7.9 -9.6 657.2 726.4 779.3 Table A-6 shows the major components of the changes in current services outlays between 1982 and 1983. Outlays for income security programs are estimated to rise by $19.9 billion, from $251.5 billion in 1982 to $271.5 billion in 1983 due to automatic cost-ofliving increases in many benefit programs, increases in the number of beneficiaries, and higher earnings records for new retirees. In the case of social security, for example, about three-fourths of the 1982 to 1983 outlay increase is due to cost-of-living increases; higher earnings records and net increases in beneficiaries account for the remaining one-fourth. Table A-7 shows caseload projections for major benefit programs and other selected programmatic assumptions. Current services outlays for the military functions of the Department of Defense are estimated to increase by $15.8 billion between 1982 and 1983. Increased outlays for retired military personnel account for $1.6 billion of this increase. October 1982 pay raises of 8.0% for military and civilian personnel account for an additional $4.9 billion of the increase. Current services outlays for other De- 9 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-5. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY AGENCY (In billions of dollars) Current services lyol actual Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Military Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Foundation for Education Assistance Office of Personnel Management Other independent agencies Allowances Undistributed offsetting receipts Total outlays 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals -30.3 1.5 .7 .1 6.4 29.7 11.7 181.5 3.0 253.9 14.7 3.1 2.6 32.1 2.2 20.4 109.8 5.4 5.8 24.1 13.7 19.9 15.1 0.4 -31.5 1.4 .8 .1 6.6 27.4 10.9 197.3 2.9 278.8 15.0 3.5 2.7 28.6 2.4 20.2 127.0 4.3 6.6 24.9 13.2 22.2 14.3 1.5 -33.4 1.4 .8 .1 6.9 23.5 9.9 215.9 2.3 274.2 13.1 3.3 2.7 26.5 2.4 19.0 124.5 4.6 6.6 24.4 11.4 21.7 7.1 -1.3 -43.5 657.2 726.4 779.3 757.6 1.2 .6 .1 7.0 26.0 11.5 156.1 3.1 228.1 14.0 6.8 2.8 30.1 1.9 22.5 93.4 5.2 5.4 22.9 13.1 18.1 17.6 partment of Defense purchases are estimated to increase by $9.3 billion, due to estimated price increases averaging 7.0% and to spending from funds previously appropriated. Current services outlays for the medicare and medicaid programs are estimated to increase by $8.8 billion between 1982 and 1983, largely as a result of increases in medical care prices. Other major increases in current services outlays between 1982 and 1983 include an increase in net interest of $16.0 billion and $1.5 billion for civilian agency pay raises. The $4.0 billion decline in current services outlays for Agriculture between 1982 and 1983 results from a sharply lower estimate of outlays required in 1983 for price supports and related Commodity Credit Corporation programs. Budget authority.—Current services budget authority is estimated to total $833.9 billion in 1983, $58.8 billion more than in 1982. Increases in budget authority between 1982 and 1983 generally reflect the higher funding levels that would be necessary to maintain 1982 services levels in real terms in 1983. In the case of most 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-6. CHANGE IN CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS, 1982 TO 1983 (In billions of dollars) Budget authority 1982 current services estimate 1982-83 changes: Income security: Social security Federal employee retirement and disability. Unemployment compensation Housing assistance Food and nutrition assistance Other income security programs Subtotal, income security National defense-. Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Procurement Operation and maintenance Military retired pay Other defense military Other national defense Subtotal, National defense International financial programs General science, space, and technology Energy programs Natural resources and environment Farm income stabilization Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Transportation programs Community and regional development Education Training and Employment Medicare and medicaid Other health programs Veterans programs Net interest Allowances for civilian agency pay raises Rents and royalties, offshore oil lands All other programs, net 1983 current services estimate 775.1 11.9 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.4 4.3 15.3 2.2 -2.5 1.4 1.4 2.1 21.5 19.9 5.5 4.4 3.8 1.6 1.2 0.4 5.3 3.4 4.0 1.6 1.6 0.3 16.8 -1.3 0.7 0.7 -0.1 -2.7 -0.7 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.4 16.0 1.6 -1.7 1.6 16.1 0.2 0.6 -1.0 -1.9 -4.1 0.2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 8.3 0.2 0.7 16.0 1.5 -1.7 0.1 833.9 779.3 trust funds, however, the funds' receipts automatically become budget authority; thus increases in budget authority for these funds simply reflect year-to-year growth in expected receipts. Budget authority for some programs display erratic year-to-year changes due to sporadic funding patterns or advance funding. Tables A-8 and A-9 show the estimates of current services budget authority by function and by agency, respectively. The major components of the changes in current services budget authority between 1982 and 1983 are shown in table A-6. 11 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-7. CASELOADS AND PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS Fiscal years 1983 1982 Beneficiaries (annual average, in thousands): Social security (OASDI) Railroad retirement1 Federal civilian retirees Military retirees Veterans compensation Veterans pensions Gl bill Disabled coal miners (including black lung) Supplemental security income Maintenance assistance (AFDC) Food stamps Housing subsidy recipients (section 8 housing) Medicaid Medicare: Hospital insurance Supplementary medical insurance Automatic benefit increases (percent): Social security and veterans pensions (July) Federal employee retirement (March) Food stamps (October) Interest rate (91-day bills, percent, calendar years) 2 Budget deficit (current services, in billions of dollars) Unemployment rate (percent, annual average, calendar years): Total Insured 3 Strategic petroleum reserves (millions of barrels) 1 36,312 988 1,357 1,384 2,638 1,846 970 464 3,654 10,955 23,000 3,859 21,908 36,868 974 1,408 1,427 2,644 1,763 812 440 3,630 10,980 21,380 4,292 22,418 28,450 28,228 28,927 28,773 8.1 8.9 11.7 100.0 6.5 6.6 10.7 10.5 126.0 8.9 4.9 267 7.9 4.3 343 1 End of year. 2 Average rate on new issues within period. These estimates assume, by convention, that interest rates decline with the rate of inflation. They do not represent a forecast of interest rates. This measures unemployment under State regular unemployment insurance as a percentage of covered employment under that program. It does not include recipients of extended benefits under that program. Increases in budget authority of $21.5 billion for income security and $2.0 billion for health are primarily due to higher social security and medicare trust fund receipts and higher medicaid costs. A $16.5 billion increase in budget authority for the Department of Defense—Military largely reflects pay increases for military and civilian personnel and increases in the costs of an equivalent level of defense purchases. Other major changes in current services budget authority include an increase in net interest of $16.0 billion; $1.6 billion for allowances for civilian agency pay raises; a $1.0 billion increase in education programs; a $1.0 billion increase in employment and training programs; and a $1.4 billion increase for veterans programs. 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-8. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION (In billions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual National defense International affairs General science, space, and technology Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social servicesHealth Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance Interest Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Reduction of fraud, waste, and abuse Undistributed debt collection Undistributed offsetting receipts: Employer share, employee retirement Interest received by trust funds Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf. Federal surplus property disposition Total budget authority.. 182.4 24.8 6.5 6.8 11.1 6.6 6.5 24.9 8.1 30.5 68.9 249.9 23.2 4.3 5.1 6.3 82.5 1982 estimate 216.3 18.5 7.0 5.0 7.6 9.6 6.3 20.4 6.6 25.0 80.2 264.0 24.8 4.5 4.9 6.4 99.1 0.4 1983 estimate 233.1 18.0 7.7 5.7 7.5 7.0 5.8 20.6 7.5 27.3 82.1 285.5 26.2 4.8 5.1 6.6 115.1 1.6 -6.4 -13.8 -7.6 -7.7 -16.1 -16.1 -10.1 -7.9 -9.6 718.4 775.1 833.9 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CURRENT SERVICES ESTIMATES AND BUDGET PROPOSALS For 1982, the estimates of budget authority and outlays under current services levels exceed the administration proposals by $9.7 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively. The 1982 receipts estimate under administration proposals exceeds current services by $0.3 billion. The deficit under administration proposals is $1.4 billion lower than that under current services. For 1983, the administration's estimate of outlays is $21.6 billion below the current services level, and budget authority is $32.0 billion below the current services level. The current services receipts level for 1983 is $12.8 billion below the administration's estimate of $666.1 billion. The 1983 current services deficit of $126.0 billion exceeds the administration's estimated deficit by $34.5 billion. 13 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-9. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY (In billions of dollars) 1981 actual Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense-Military Department of Defense-Civil Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentDepartment of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration.... Veterans Administration Foundation for Education Assistance Office of Personnel Management Other independent agencies Allowances Undistributed offsetting receipts Total budget authority .. 1.2 .7 .1 14.7 28.2 11.2 178.4 3.1 225.8 33.4 6.4 2.5 29.5 2.3 23.7 92.7 3.0 5.5 23.1 12.9 29.0 21.5 Current services 1982 estimate 1.4 .7 .1 11.0 30.5 10.3 211.5 2.9 252.7 24.2 1983 estimate 1.4 .8 .1 11.0 28.8 11.0 -30.3 2.4 26.6 2.5 19.7 110.1 1.3 5.9 24.8 12.6 34.0 18.0 0.4 -31.5 227.9 2.9 270.2 25.3 3.6 2.7 28.3 2.6 19.9 127.4 1.4 6.6 26.2 13.5 35.6 18.5 1.6 -33.4 718.4 775.1 833.9 2.8 Receipts.—As shown in table A - l l , the administration's estimate of receipts for 1982 is $0.3 billion higher than the current services level of $626.4 billion. This difference is due primarily to proposed improvements in tax collection and enforcement, and the proposed increase in airport and airway user taxes, which increase receipts by $0.2 billion and $0.1 billion, respectively. The administration's proposals for 1983 are $12.8 billion above the current services level. Proposed tax revisions, designed to eliminate unintended benefits and to remove obsolete incentives, account for $7.2 billion of the increase above the current services 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-10. SUMMARY OF CURRENT SERVICES AND PROPOSED BUDGET TOTALS (In billions of dollars) 1983 Estimate 1982 Estimate 1981 actual Receipts Outlays Current services Administration proposals Administration proposals Current services 599.3 657.2 626.4 726.4 626.8 725.3 653.3 779.3 666.1 757.6 Deficit ( — ) -57.9 -100.0 -98.6 -126.0 -91.5 Budget authority 718.4 775.1 765.5 833.9 801.9 level. Other proposed increases include improvements in tax collection and enforcement ($5.5 billion), airport and airway user taxes ($1.2 billion), passport and visa fees ($0.1 billion), and the requirement that Federal employees pay the employee portion of the social security hospital insurance tax ($0.6 billion). These increases are partially offset by the administration's proposal to convert the rail industry's multi-employer pension system from a public to a private system, which is estimated to reduce receipts by $1.7 billion.1 Table A - l l . ESTIMATED EFFECT OF PROPOSED LEGISLATION AND ADMINISTRATIVE ACTION ON RECEIPTS (In billions of dollars) 1982 Current services receipts estimates Tax revisions: Completed contract accounting Business energy tax credits Tax-exempt revenue bonds Modified coinsurance Construction period interest and taxes. Corporate minimum tax 626.4 Subtotal, tax revisions Improved tax collection and enforcement.. Airport and airway trust fund Passport and visa fees Federal employee hospital insurance Railroad retirement Other 0.2 0.1 Subtotal, other receipts proposals. 0.3 Total proposed changes 0.3 Proposed receipts, President's budget.. 626.8 * $ 5 0 million or less. 1 A more detailed discussion of the administration's receipts proposals is presented in the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1983, Part 4, "Budget Receipts." SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 15 Outlays.—Table A-12 shows the major differences between the administration's budget and the current services outlay level. In 1982, the major increase above current services outlays is $1.3 billion for the Department of Defense—Military. This increase and several smaller increases are more than offset by proposed reductions in the guaranteed student loan program, medicare, food and nutrition assistance, and legal services, and by the allowance for reducing fraud, waste, and abuse. Proposed rescissions reduce 1982 outlays by $0.2 billion. For 1983, proposed reductions result in a decrease in outlays of $43.0 billion, which is partially offset by proposed increases in defense and several other programs of $21.4 billion. The administration proposals to modify entitlement programs would reduce 1983 outlays by $12.8 billion. The major changes in entitlement programs include: • Guaranteed student loans.—Applying a needs test at all income levels and increasing loan origination fees would reduce 1983 outlays by $0.8 billion. • Medicare.—Indexing the deductible amounts under the supplemental medical insurance (SMI) program to the consumer price index, increasing the SMI premium, imposing a 2% reduction in hospital reimbursement, and restraining the rate of increase in physician fees would reduce 1983 outlays by $2.5 billion. • Medicaid.—Requiring a modest payment for medicaid services, reducing Federal matching payments for optional services, and eliminating Federal payment for cases that are in error would reduce 1983 outlays by $2.0 billion. • Railroad retirement.—Replacing a portion of the present pension for railroad retirees with a private rail industry pension program would reduce 1983 outlays by $2.0 billion and reduce 1983 receipts by $1.7 billion. • Federal civil service.—Requiring Federal employees to join the hospital insurance program and limiting the cost-of-living adjustments for civil service retirement annuities would increase 1983 payroll tax receipts by $0.6 billion and reduce 1983 outlays by $0.5 billion. • Food stamps.—Increasing the benefit reduction from $0.30 to $0.35 per dollar of additional income and eliminating the deduction for earned income and the Federal payments for cases that are in error would reduce 1983 outlays by $2.4 billion. • Aid to families with dependent children (AFDC).—Strengthening the work requirement, eliminating the Federal payment for cases that are in error, and redefining the method for calculating individual benefits would reduce 1983 outlays by $1.2 billion. 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 • Supplemental security income.—Changing the disability criteria to a basis of long-term medical prognosis for recovery would reduce 1983 outlays by $0.3 billion. Changes proposed in other entitlement programs, including child nutrition, Federal employee disability compensation, military retirement, trade adjustment assistance, and others, would reduce 1983 outlays by $1.3 billion. Administration proposals to establish new or increase existing user fees would increase offsetting collections and reduce 1983 outlays by $1.2 billion. These proposals would recover costs associated with aviation, navigation, and recreation programs; costs associated with the development of permanent disposal facilities for high-level radioactive wastes, and costs associated with the provision of various other goods and services to special groups. Administration initiatives in collection of delinquent debt, reduction of fraud, waste, and abuse, and disposition of Federal property would reduce 1983 outlays by $3.0 billion below current services. Accelerated leasing of outer continental shelf lands reduces 1983 outlays by $8.4 billion. The proposal to restrain civilian employee pay, which limits the October 1982 pay raises to 5.0% for Federal civilian employees rather than the 8.0% raise under comparability, would reduce outlays by $1.4 billion below the current services level. Improved asset sale management and other initiatives would reduce 1983 outlays by $2.0 billion. Net interest outlays are lower by $2.7 billion under the administration proposals. This reflects the lower Federal borrowing that would be required if the administration's tax revisions and spending cuts are enacted. Reductions proposed in discretionary and other nondefense programs would lower 1983 outlays by $11.1 billion. Proposed changes in education, training, employment, and social services programs would reduce 1983 outlays by $4.4 billion. Changes to other programs, such as energy, natural resources and environment, commerce and housing credit, transportation, health, income security, and others would reduce 1983 outlays by $6.7 billion below the current services estimate. The largest outlay increase above the current services level for 1983 is the proposed $19.7 billion increase in defense programs for higher purchases to carry out the administration's policy to maintain the deterrent capability of our conventional and strategic forces as the Soviet Union and its allies increase their military capabilities. Other major increases above current services for 1983 include $0.5 billion for sewage treatment construction grants; $0.3 billion for the economic support fund, $0.4 billion for the Internal Revenue Service, and $0.5 billion for programs in the Federal Aviation Administration. 17 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-12. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST AND CURRENT SERVICES (Outlays; in billions of dollars) 1982 Current services estimates Major Decreases: National defense: Entitlements (retired pay) Management initiative (civilian employee pay raise). Stockpile sales 726.4 Subtotal, national defense. Nondefense: Entitlements: Guaranteed student loans Medicare Medicaid Railroad retirement Civil Service retirement and disability Food stamps Aid to families with dependent childrenSupplemental security income Other entitlements Subtotal, entitlements Management initiatives: Civilian agency pay raise Other allowances OCS receipts Federal property disposition.. Other Subtotal, management initiatives. Net interest Higher user fees Other nondefense: Energy programs Natural resources and environment... Transportation Education Employment and training (net) Social services Housing assistance Other income security and health All other (net) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 -1.1 0.1* -0.1 * -0.1 _ * _* 0.1 Subtotal, other nondefense.. -0.1 Subtotal, nondefense -2.6 Total, decreases 360-700 0 - 8 2 - 2 (Pt. A) -2.6 18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-12. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ADMINISTRATION BUDGET REQUEST AND CURRENT SERVICES— Continued (Outlays; in billions of dollars) 1982 Major Increases: National defense: Department of Defense—military. Other national defense Subtotal, national defense. Nondefense: Foreign military sales credit Economic support fund Federal Aviation Administration Sewage treatment construction grants.. Internal Revenue Service 1.3 0.1 0.1 Subtotal, nondefense. 0.2 Total, increases 1.5 Administration budget request ... ! 1.3 725.3 $50 million or less. Budget authority.—For 1982, the largest increase in budget authority beyond current services is $2.6 billion for the Department of Defense—Military. Supplemental appropriations requested for sewage treatment construction grants account for an additional $2.4 billion increase in budget authority beyond current services levels. Increases totaling $0.7 billion are also proposed for the Federal Aviation Administration and Internal Revenue Service. Decreases totaling $10.7 billion result from rescissions of 1982 budget authority proposed by the administration. A supplemental request to permit additional rescissions in the subsidized housing program would reduce 1982 budget authority by a further $1.8 billion. Entitlement reforms would reduce 1982 budget authority by $1.9 billion and reduction in fraud, waste, and abuse would reduce budget authority by $1.0 billion. The proposed reforms in entitlement programs would reduce 1983 budget authority by $9.4 billion below the current services level. Proposed increases in user fees would reduce budget authority by a further $1.2 billion in 1983. The administration's proposal to restrain civilian employee pay decreases budget authority below the 1983 current services level by $0.8 billion for civilian agencies and $0.8 billion for the Department of Defense. The administration's proposal to reform the structure of Federal housing assistance would reduce budget authority for 1983 by $22.5 billion below the current services level. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 19 Administration initiatives in collection of delinquent debt, reduction of fraud, waste, and abuse, and disposition of surplus Federal property would reduce 1983 budget authority by $3.0 billion below current services. Accelerated leasing of the Outer Continential Shelf lands reduces budget authority by $8.4 billion in 1983. Proposed changes in education, training, employment, and social services programs would reduce 1983 budget authority by $7.6 billion. Changes to other programs, such as energy, water resources, and conservation, commerce and housing credit, transportation, community and regional development, and others would reduce 1983 budget authority by $9.8 billion below the current services estimate. The lower deficits under the administration proposals reduce budget authority for net interest by $2.7 billion in 1983. Budget authority increases proposed for defense programs are $31.2 billion above the current services level for 1983. Other major increases in budget authority above the current services level for 1983 include $1.1 billion for international security assistance; $2.4 billion for sewage treatment construction grants; $0.4 billion for the Internal Revenue Service, and $1.2 billion for programs in the Federal Aviation Administration. Tables A-13 and A-14 provide a more detailed comparison (by function, subfunction, and program) of the President's budget request for 1983 with the current services budget authority and outlay estimates. 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 050 NATIONAL DEFENSE 051 Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Retired military personnel Proposed legislation Operation and maintenance Procurement Research, development, test and evaluation Military construction Family housing Revolving funds and other Proposed legislation Allowances for civilian and military pay raises.. Other legislation Subtotal, Department of Defense—Military.. 053 Atomic energy defense activities 054 Defense-related activities: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Defense-related activities.. Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 150 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 151 Foreign economic and financial assistance: Multilateral development banks International fund for agricultural development International organizations Agency for International Development Public Law 480—Food aid Peace Corps Refugee assistance Offsetting receipts and other Subtotal, Foreign economic and financial assistance. 152 International security assistance: Foreign military sales credit Economic support fund Military assistance International military education and training Peacekeeping operations Offsetting receipts and other Proposed legislation 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 36,930 13,840 38,122 15,036 43,614 16,600 55,548 48,025 16,609 3,398 2,004 2,031 61,485 64,658 20,038 4,908 2,159 -315 65,285 69,072 21,178 5,160 2,287 -175 5,399 4,927 178,386 211,490 227,949 3,651 4,673 4,977 373 135 213 373 135 213 -4 182,405 -4 216,294 233,139 1,004 1,262 1,529 262 1,684 1,229 106 474 -259 215 1,782 1,000 105 503 -327 215 1,920 1,028 105 419 -372 4,499 4,540 4,845 500 2,100 110 34 -231 750 2,564 177 38 151 -194 799 2,731 188 41 43 -171 28 Subtotal, International security assistance.. 2,543 3,486 3,631 153 Conduct of foreign affairs: Administration of foreign affairs International organizations and conferences.... Other , 996 433 41 1,103 467 45 1,222 Subtotal, Conduct of foreign affairs.. 1,471 1,615 1,780 508 50 21 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 154 Foreign information and exchange activities 155 International financial programs: Export-Import Bank Foreign military sales trust fund (net) International monetary programs International commodity agreements Other Subtotal, International financial programs Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 250 GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 251 General science and basic research: National Science Foundation programs Department of Commerce general science programs Smithsonian scientific information exchange activities Subtotal, General science and basic research 726 746 6,908 3,566 5,361 88 -79 3,986 4,446 3,557 3,622 2,701 3,622 -80 -82 -82 15,844 8,352 7,097 6,241 -95 -97 -97 -97 24,812 18,483 17,982 18,126 1,036 504* 1,004 529* 1,058 564* 1,078 601* 1,541 1,533 1,621 1,679 253 Space flight Space, science, applications, and technology 1,359 255 Supporting space activities 270 ENERGY 271 Energy supply: Research and development Proposed legislation Uranium enrichment Petroleum reserves Power marketing Incentives for non-conventional fuel production Subtotal, Energy supply 272 Energy conservation 274 Emergency energy preparedness 276 Energy information, policy, and regulation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, energy information, policy, and regulation Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 300 NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 301 Water resources: Navigation fees (proposed) Existing law 1983 administration proposals 588 254 Total budget authority 1983 estimate 551 3,187 Deductions for offsetting receipts 1982 estimate 3,578 3,983 3,983 1,381 1,526 1,526 450 508 618 618 -5 -5 -5 -5 6,533 6,995 7,743 7,800 3,808 2,755 2,935 2,010 185 442 -655 -96 -1,274 1 -908 1,841 109 -848 2,083 -848 2,071 2,224 3,689 4,279 3,418 728 369 440 27 2,791 191 204 242 1,089 869 850 772 -60 1,089 869 850 712 -62 -69 -69 -69 6,769 5,050 5,704 4,330 4,163 3,916 4,153 -448 3,824 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 4,163 3,916 4,153 3,376 2,054 496 178 579 -558 1,759 450 161 570 -964 1,765 462 170 604 -1,433 1,783 455 160 428 -1,433 2,749 1,976 1,569 1,393 319 27 942 176 33 1,014 139 33 1,063 69 1,287 1,224 1,235 1,156 304 Pollution control and abatement: Regulatory, enforcement, and research programs Oil pollution funds Hazardous substance response fund Sewage treatment plant construction grants 1,281 28 68 1,605 1,045 5 189 1,114 6 200 934 3 229 2,400 Subtotal, Pollution control and abatement 2,981 1,239 1,320 3,566 1,500 1,548 1,622 1,457 13 Subtotal, Water resources 302 Conservation and land management: Management of national forests, cooperative forestry, and forestry research Management of public lands Mining reclamation and enforcement Conservation of agricultural lands Offsetting receipts and other Subtotal, Conservation and land management 303 Recreational resources: Federal land acquisition Urban park grants and historic preservation fund Operation of recreational resources Proposed legislation Subtotal, Recreational resources 306 Other natural resources: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other natural resources 1,092 -5 1,500 1,548 1,622 1,470 -1,553 -2,330 -2,409 -2,520 11,128 7,571 7,489 8,440 350 AGRICULTURE 351 Farm income stabilization: Commodity price-support and related programs Crop insurance Agricultural credit Other programs and administrative expenses 4,207 58 573 211 7,085 425 464 62 3,828 717 682 63 3,828 717 682 62 Subtotal, Farm income stabilization 5,049 8,037 5,290 5,289 630 304 80 657 316 119 698 335 124 291 283 301 703 312 117 -2 233* 156 176 -78 160 119 -77 178 130 -84 175 126 -84 1,559 1,578 1,682 1,580 -4 -4 -4 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 352 Agricultural research and services: Research programs Extension programs Marketing programs Proposed legislation Animal and plant health programs Proposed legislation Economic intelligence Other programs and administrative expenses Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Agricultural research and services Deductions for offsetting receipts 38 23 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Total budget authority 370 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 371 Mortgage credit and thrift insurance: Mortgage purchase activities (GNMA) Mortgage credit (FHA) Housing for the elderly or handicapped Rural housing programs (FmHA) National Credit Union Administration Subtotal, Mortgage credit and thrift insurance 372 Postal Service 376 Other advancement of commerce: Small business assistance National Consumer Cooperative Bank Technology utilization Proposed legislation Economic and demographic statistics Chrysler Corporation loan guarantee program Other Subtotal, Other advancement of commerce Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 400 TRANSPORTATION 401 Ground transportation: Highway improvement and construction Proposed legislation Highway safety Mass transit Railroads Regulation Subtotal, Ground transportation 402 Air transportation: Airways and airports (FAA) Proposed legislation Aeronautical research and technology Air carrier subsidies Regulation Subtotal, Air transportation 403 Water transportation: Marine safety and transportation (Coast Guard) Coast Guard user fees (proposed) Ocean shipping Regulation Subtotal, Water transportation 407 Other transportation Deductions for offsetting receipts 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 6,646 9,611 6,968 6,865 1,358 412 797 596 15 1,252 252 745 1,583 230 1,207 212 677 1,112 121 2 134 277 1,112 121 3,178 4,061 3,329 1,646 1,343 619 808 500 875 105 242 570 52 260 636 379 237 270 1 529 185 1 525 207 1 561 233 -41 199 1 511 2,022 1,594 1,641 1,282 -7 -8 -8 -8 6,537 6,266 5,770 3,419 9,093 8,596 9,224 199 4,727 4,134 82 213 3,546 1,942 70 216 3,801 1,184 75 7,949 80 204 3,202 814 69 18,236 14,367 14,500 12,317 3,412 2,493 2,678 526 115 29 474 86 26 486 70 27 3,130 774 486 48 24 4,082 3,078 3,262 4,463 2,006 2,471 2,286 574 12 489 11 512 11 1,989 -200 480 10 2,592 2,971 2,809 2,279 109 86 91 113 -99 -97 -70 -70 24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Total budget authority 450 COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 451 Community development: Community development block grants Urban development action grants Rental rehabilitation grants (proposed) Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation Pennsylvania Avenue development Other programs Subtotal, Community development 452 Area and regional development: Rural development Economic development assistance Coastal energy impact assistance Indian programs Proposed legislation Regional commissions Other programs Proposed legislation Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Area and regional development 453 Disaster relief and insurance: SBA disaster loans Disaster relief National flood insurance fund Other Subtotal, Disaster relief and insurance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 501 Elementary, secondary, and vocational education: Education for the disadvantaged State education block grant Indian education Impact aid Education for the handicapped Proposed legislation Vocational and adult education Proposed legislation Other 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 24,920 20,405 20,591 19,102 3,695 675 3,456 440 3,726 474 12 32 397 14 18 356 15 12 361 3,456 440 150 16 12 386 4,811 4,284 4,588 4,460 701 476 585 224 761 225 754 15 1,278 1,178 1,243 1,225 30 356 212 158 129 166 138 119 - 1 -397 -325 -343 -343 2,626 1,949 2,191 1,801 62 302 93 63 650 62 68 325 62 66 737 458 779 452 -55 315 359 -30 -51 -55 8,143 6,640 7,503 6,658 3,112 614 352 662 1,025 2,893 537 332 453 1,042 3,081 572 342 483 1,110 1,942 433 308 289 782 740 788 166 143 152 500 99 6,713 6,139 6,528 4,417 3,802 2,535 3,353 3,061 3,576 3,397 340 321 341 1,800 3,397 -912 233 500 Subtotal, Elementary, secondary, and vocational education 502 Higher education: Student financial assistance Guaranteed student loan program Proposed legislation Higher and continuing education 846 25 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Other general institutional assistance Special institutions Subtotal, Higher education 503 Research and general education aids: Educational research and statistics Cultural activities Other Subtotal, Research and general education aids 504 Training and employment: Employment and training assistance Proposed legislation Temporary employment assistance Older workers Work incentive program Federal-State employment service Other Subtotal, Training and employment 505 Other labor services: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other labor services 506 Social services: Social services block grant Community service programs Child welfare block grant Proposed legislation Services for children, youth, and families, the elderly and other special groups Proposed legislation Domestic volunteer programs Other social services Subtotal, Social services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 550 HEALTH 551 Health care services: Medicare Proposed legislation Medicare premiums and collections Proposed legislation Medicaid Proposed legislation Health block grants Other health care services Proposed legislation Subtotal, Health care services 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 32 204 78 215 49 226 49 222 6,913 7,028 7,589 4,789 75 673 539 62 639 525 67 643 535 62 562 436 1,286 1,226 1,245 1,060 7,143 3,023 3,787 2,387 431 277 365 799 94 67 246 547 74 266 244 554 85 487 81 9,109 3,956 4,936 2,955 606 574 615 639 -2 606 574 615 637 2,399 525 174 2,400 378 465 2,450 395 501 1,974 104 420 -40 2,599 2,645 2,851 153 87 129 63 129 68 2,338 -4 118 59 5,935 6,080 6,395 4,968 -13 -31 -32 -32 30,550 24,973 27,276 18,794 45,292 55,846 62,293 -3,340 -3,862 -4,418 17,530 19,012 14,531 3,980 3,897 4,149 61,293 -1,910 -4,418 26 14,427 -1,432 516 3,225 741 63,462 74,893 76,555 72,468 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 552 Health research: National Institutes of Health research Other research programs Current services 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 3,352 405 3,442 381 3,693 407 3,554 416 3,757 3,824 4,100 3,969 553 Education and training of health care work force: Research training Clinical training Other 217 353 94 198 199 63 213 212 19 195 125 16 Subtotal, Education and training of health care workforce 665 460 444 337 708 668 708 369 344 343 712 -2 351 -9 1,077 1,012 1,051 1,052 -25 -16 -17 -17 68,936 80,172 82,132 77,808 132,950 150,128 161,981 4,675 5,500 5,843 1,778 28 1,873 31 1,792 37 161,981 6,593 5,843 -5,493 1,780 37 139,431 157,531 169,653 170,741 28,498 33,222 34,664 279 345 398 34,664 -8 394 -58 28,777 33,567 35,062 34,992 19,048 21,006 22,330 22,392 -143 19,048 21,006 22,330 22,249 24,840 1,265 16,367 1,432 17,313 1,548 -5,221 1,367 26,105 17,799 18,861 -3,854 11,740 11,559 12,650 5,103 4,498 4,836 12,650 -2,294 3,747 Subtotal, Health research 554 Consumer and occupational health and safety: Consumer safety Proposed legislation Occupational safety and health Proposed legislation Subtotal, Consumer and occupational health and safety... Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 600 INCOME SECURITY 601 General retirement and disability insurance: Social security (OASDI) Proposed legislation Railroad retirement Proposed legislation Special'benefits for disabled coal miners Other Subtotal, General retirement and disability insurance 602 Federal employee retirement and disability: Retirement and disability programs Proposed legislation Federal employee workers' compensation Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal employee retirement and disability.... 603 Unemployment compensation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Unemployment compensation 604 Housing assistance: Subsidized housing Other Subtotal, Housing assistance 605 Food and nutrition assistance: Food stamps and aid to Puerto Rico Proposed legislation Child and other nutrition programs 27 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate -319 Proposed legislation Subtotal, Food and nutrition assistance 609 Other income security: Supplemental security income Proposed legislation AFDC and related assistance Proposed legislation Combined welfare administration Proposed legislation Earned income tax credit Refugee assistance Low income energy assistance Other Subtotal, Other income security Total budget authority 700 VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES 701 Income security for veterans: Service-connected compensation Proposed legislation Non-service-connected pensions Proposed legislation Burial and other benefits National service life insurance trust fund U.S. Government life insurance trust fund All other insurance programs Insurance program receipts Subtotal, Income security for veterans 702 Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation 703 Hospital and medical care for veterans: Medical care and hospital services Proposed legislation Construction Medical administration, research, and other Subtotal, Hospital and medical care for veterans 16,573 16,058 17,486 13,784 7,227 7,878 9,177 8,485 6,303 7,163 9,177 -286 7,163 -1,300 1,914 -259 1,180 532 1,300 243 1,914 1,318 902 1,850 204 1,254 670 1,752 230 1,180 703 1,752 242 19,985 18,086 22,131 19,664 249,918 264,047 * 285,524 257,576 8,530 9,604 10,293 3,794 4,073 3,981 208 1,104 34 5 -465 147 1,162 32 8 -476 141 1,256 30 6 -470 9,522 624 3,981 -66 141 1,256 30 6 -470 13,210 14,550 15,238 15,024 2,351 1,945 1,691 1,691 -25 2,351 1,945 1,691 1,666 6,339 6,966 7,702 386 194 497 184 630 189 7,496 5 630 194 6,919 7,647 8,521 8,324 704 Veterans housing: Housing program receipts (existing law) Housing program receipts (proposed) -95 Subtotal, Veterans housing 705 Other veterans benefits and services: VA administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Non-VA support programs 1983 administration proposals -95 656 648 707 34 34 38 704 _* 39 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Subtotal, Other veterans benefits and services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 750 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 751 Federal law enforcement activities: General investigation (FBI) Narcotics violation investigation (DEA) Alcohol, tobacco, and firearms investigation (ATF) Border enforcement activities (Customs and INS) Protection activities (Secret Service) Other enforcement Subtotal, Federal law enforcement activities 752 Federal litigative and judicial activities: Civil and criminal prosecution and representation Federal judicial activities Representation of indigents in civil cases Subtotal, Federal litigative and judicial activities 690 -3 Current services 1982 estimate 682 -3 1983 estimate 745 -3 1983 administration proposals 743 -3 23,167 24,821 26,191 25,660 675 215 150 864 186 259 740 231 79 938 232 260 799 249 79 1,049 237 266 799 247 1,055 303 266 2,350 2,479 2,679 2,671 506 658 321 517 747 241 573 806 260 576 850 1,485 1,504 1,639 1,427 753 Federal correctional activities 352 367 384 383 754 Criminal justice assistance 169 140 143 67 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 800 GENERAL GOVERNMENT 801 Legislative functions 802 Executive direction and management 803 Central fiscal operations: Collection of taxes Federal Financing Bank Other fiscal operations Subtotal, Central fiscal operations 804 General property and records management: Real property Personal property Records management Other Subtotal, General property and records management 805 Central personnel management 806 Other general governmentTerritories Indian affairs Treasury claims -13 -35 -23 -23 4,343 4,455 4,823 4,525 1,031 1,188 1,189 1,217 108 92 104 104 2,480 -210 410 2,466 -158 342 2,510 -192 448 2,917 -192 428 2,679 2,650 2,767 3,154 175 89 313 20 75 273 23 85 239 38 85 239 577 369 347 362 162 132 139 139 172 145 504 163 11 506 175 12 506 134 14 506 29 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Other Subtotal, Other general government Deductions for offsetting receipts Total budget authority 850 GENERAL PURPOSE FISCAL ASSISTANCE 851 General revenue sharing: General revenue sharing payments Administration Subtotal, General revenue sharing 852 Other general purpose fiscal assistance: Payments and loans to the District of Columbia New York City loan guarantee program Payments to States from Forest Service receipts Other payments to States and counties from Federal land management activities Payments in lieu of taxes Proposed legislation Payments to territories and Puerto Rico Other 1983 administration proposals 1983 estimate 1982 estimate -58 2 6 763 683 699 660 -195 -200 -186 -377 5,125 4,912 5,059 5,259 4,567 7 4,567 6 4,567 6 4,567 4,573 4,573 4,573 4,573 489 1 241 489 1 242 551 * 551 * 242 342 453 103 606 96 763 96 763 385 5 407 5 416 6 6 7 45 416 6 Subtotal, Other general purpose fiscal assistance 1,678 1,846 2,073 2,123 Total budget authority 6,251 6,419 6,646 6,696 95,503 115,700 135,529 133,229 -329 95,503 115,700 135,529 132,900 1,046 -8,570 -5,442 1,712 -11,885 -6,432 1,937 -15,171 -7,146 1,937 -15,171 -7,146 16 -12,966 -16,606 -20,380 -20,364 82,537 99,094 115,149 112,536 392 1,581 900 INTEREST 901 Interest on the public debt: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Interest on the public debt 902 Other interest: Interest on refunds of tax collections Interest on loans to the Federal Financing Bank Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other interest Total budget authority 920 ALLOWANCES 921 Civilian agency pay raises 757 922 Reduction of fraud, waste, and abuse -1,000 924 Undistributed debt collection -1,000 927 Contingencies for relatively uncontrollable programs 928 Contingencies for other requirements Total budget authority 392 1,581 -1,243 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-13. CURRENT SERVICES BUDGET AUTHORITY BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Current services 1983 administration proposals 1982 estimate 1983 estimate -6,371 -7,560 -7,734 -7,734 -619 -6,371 -7,560 -7,734 -8,353 -13,810 -16,053 -16,062 -16,062 -59 -13,810 -16,053 -16,062 -16,122 -10,138 -7,861 -9,600 -18,000 -30,320 -31,745 -33,396 -43,474 718,400 775,124 833,874 801,910 950 UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS 951 Employer share, employee retirement: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Employer share, employee retirement 952 Interest received by trust funds: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Interest received by trust funds 953 Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf 954 Federal surplus property disposition Total budget authority Total budget authority -1,000 31 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 050 NATIONAL DEFENSE 051 Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Retired military personnel Proposed legislation Operation and maintenance Procurement Research, development, test and evaluation Military construction Family housing Revolving funds and other Proposed legislation Allowances for civilian and military pay raises Other legislation Subtotal, Department of Defense—Military 053 Atomic energy defense activities 054 Defense-related activities: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Defense-related activities 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 44,534 16,560 -89 67,279 55,144 22,200 3,975 2,436 -625 63 4,285 137 36,409 13,729 37,927 15,000 43,263 16,570 51,920 35,191 15,278 2,463 1,721 -614 59,957 41,259 18,264 2,725 2,065 -782 63,912 44,629 19,498 2,914 2,263 -671 5,081 4,927 156,096 181,497 197,305 215,900 3,398 4,498 4,806 5,155 276 203 203 415 -402 276 203 203 13 -4 -4 159,765 186,193 202,314 221,068 955 10 326 1,544 1,254 99 384 -357 1,109 30 220 1,608 1,141 105 465 -398 1,253 40 215 1,730 1,028 105 455 -453 1,253 40 184 1,720 1,028 98 455 -451 4,215 4,280 4,374 4,327 152 International security assistance: Foreign military sales credit Economic support fund Military assistance International military education and training Peacekeeping operations Offsetting receipts and other Proposed legislation 507 2,053 228 22 29 292 755 2,307 317 40 164 -97 774 2,415 321 41 54 -71 913 2,683 203 50 54 -71 4 Subtotal, International security assistance 3,131 3,485 3,535 3,835 868 441 39 1,017 474 46 1,147 581 48 1,168 582 44 1,347 1,537 1,776 1,794 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 150 INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 151 Foreign economic and financial assistance: Multilateral development banks International fund for agricultural development International organizations Agency for International Development Public Law 480—Food aid Peace Corps Refugee assistance Offsetting receipts and other Subtotal, Foreign economic and financial assistance 153 Conduct of foreign affairs: Administration of foreign affairs International organizations and conferences Other Subtotal, Conduct of foreign affairs 32 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Tabie A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 154 Foreign information and exchange activities 155 International financial programs: Export-Import Bank Special defense acquisition fund Foreign military sales trust fund (net) International monetary programs International commodity agreements Other Subtotal, International financial programs Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 250 GENERAL SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY 251 General science and basic research: National Science Foundation programs Department of Commerce general science programs Smithsonian scientific information exchange activities Subtotal, General science and basic research Current services 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 525 599 642 655 2,066 1,855 -288 122 2,004 -305 247 1,918 -218 247 -880 29 -452 -493 -493 2,007 1,265 1,454 1,455 -95 -97 -97 -97 11,130 11,070 11,684 11,968 981 501* 1,101 559* 982 552* 982 589* 456 365 1,483 1,660 1,535 1,572 Space flight 3,053 3,462 3,992 3,992 254 Space, science, applications, and technology 1,384 1,344 1,462 1,462 255 Supporting space activities 444 481 603 613 253 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 270 ENERGY 271 Energy supply: Research and development Proposed legislation Uranium enrichment Petroleum reserves Power marketing Incentives for non-conventional fuel production Subtotal, Energy supply 272 Energy conservation 274 Emergency energy preparedness 276 Energy information, policy, and regulation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Energy information, policy, and regulation Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 300 NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT 301 Water resources: Navigation fees (proposed) -5 -5 -5 -5 6,359 6,942 7,586 7,633 3,893 3,615 2,840 341 -624 1,658 93 -271 -736 1,824 123 -31 -803 1,750 39 2,255 -115 -141 -803 1,730 39 5,362 4,554 3,795 2,965 757 748 660 326 3,280 227 262 I 302 940 967 819 ' 750 -60 940 967 819 690 -62 -69 -69 -69 10,277 6,427 5,467 4,215 -448 33 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 4,215 4,106 4,162 3,855 4,215 4,106 4,162 3,407 1,920 492 131 597 -565 1,968 429 137 572 -923 1,829 435 145 604 -1,412 1,834 429 146 540 -1,427 2,576 2,184 1,602 1,521 495 71 1,066 482 109 1,053 321 83 1,058 271 61 1,056 -5 1,632 1,644 1,462 1,383 304 Pollution control and abatement: Regulatory, enforcement, and research programs Hazardous substance response fund Oil pollution funds Sewage treatment plant construction grants 1,264 1 23 3,881 1,207 117 11 4,050 1,165 173 7 2,886 1,070 187 6 3,350 Subtotal, Pollution control and abatement 5,169 5,384 4,231 4,613 1,485 1,568 1,619 1,494 13 Existing law Subtotal, Water resources 302 Conservation and land management: Management of national forests, cooperative forestry, and forestry research Management of public lands Mining reclamation and enforcement Conservation of agricultural lands Offsetting receipts and other Subtotal, Conservation and land management 303 Recreational resources: Federal land acquisition Urban park grants and historic preservation fund Operation of recreational resources Proposed legislation Subtotal, Recreational resources 306 Other natural resources: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other natural resources 1,485 1,568 1,619 1,507 -1,553 -2,330 -2,409 -2,520 13,525 12,556 10,667 9,911 350 AGRICULTURE 351 Farm income stabilization: Commodity price-support and related programs Crop insurance Agricultural credit Other programs 4,036 1 -228 184 6,343 212 405 81 1,850 318 698 62 1,850 318 698 60 Subtotal, Farm income stabilization 3,993 7,041 2,928 2,926 624 301 87 667 312 125 699 335 124 282 289 306 694 308 117 -2 _238 * 147 177 -78 160 121 -77 178 131 —84 175 126 -84 1,540 1,598 1,688 1,572 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 352 Agricultural research and services: Research programs Extension programs Marketing programs Proposed legislation Animal and plant health programs Proposed legislation Economic intelligence Other programs and administrative expenses Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Agricultural research and services 34 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 370 COMMERCE AND HOUSING CREDIT 371 Mortgage credit and thrift insurance: Mortgage purchase activities (GNMA) Mortgage credit (FHA) Housing for the elderly or handicapped Rural housing programs (FmHA) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation and other.. National Credit Union Administration Subtotal, Mortgage credit and thrift insurance 372 Postal Service 376 Other advancement of commerce: Small business assistance National Consumer Cooperative Bank Technology utilization Proposed legislation Economic and demographic statistics Chrysler Corporation loan guarantee program Other Subtotal, Other advancement of commerce Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 400 TRANSPORTATION 401 Ground transportation: Highway improvement and construction Proposed legislation Highway safety Mass transit Railroads Regulation Subtotal, Ground transportation 402 Air transportation: Airways and airports (FAA) Proposed legislation Aeronautical research and technology Air carrier subsidies Regulation Subtotal, Air transportation 403 Water transportation: Marine safety and transportation (Coast Guard) Coast Guard user fees (proposed) Ocean shipping Regulation Subtotal, Water transportation 1982 estimate 38 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals -4 -4 -4 5,572 8,635 4,612 4,494 1,148 182 817 -129 -1,726 370 -10 1,032 -245 711 1,095 -1,800 38 93 1,080 -399 835 1,619 -2,000 -150 104 1,135 -1,179 286 1,619 -2,000 -150 104 651 925 1,090 -184 1,343 619 808 500 812 131 242 610 86 257 709 3 237 368 286 1 487 195 1 588 199 1 567 233 -45 192 1 535 1,959 1,738 1,716 1,284 -7 -8 -8 -8 3,946 3,275 3,306 1,591 9,068 8,264 8,752 336 3,917 3,703 75 307 3,817 2,271 70 264 4,023 1,449 74 8,312 4 230 3,221 1,209 68 17,100 14,728 14,562 13,045 3,158 2,953 2,893 544 119 29 544 88 25 516 73 27 3,209 166 516 52 25 3,850 3,610 3,509 3,968 1,829 2,083 2,235 580 12 653 11 559 11 2,238 -200 527 10 2,420 2,747 2,805 2,575 35 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 407 Other transportation Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 450 COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT 451 Community development: Community development block grants Urban development action grants Rental rehabilitation grants (proposed) Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation Pennsylvania Avenue development Other programs Subtotal, Community development 452 Area and regional development: Rural development Economic development assistance Local public works Coastal energy impact assistance Indian programs Proposed legislation Regional commissions Other programs Proposed legislation Offsetting receipts Subtotal, Area and regional development 453 Disaster relief and insurance: SBA Disaster loans Disaster relief National flood insurance fund Other programs Subtotal, Disaster relief and insurance Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays EDUCATION, TRAINING, EMPLOYMENT, AND SOCIAL SERVICES 501 Elementary, secondary, and vocational education: Education for the disadvantaged State education block grant and related Indian education Impact aid Education for the handicapped Proposed legislation Vocational and adult education Proposed legislation Other 110 1982 estimate 89 1983 estimate 94 1983 administration proposals 111 -99 -97 -70 -70 23,381 21,078 20,899 19,628 4,042 371 4.005 525 3,355 551 3,350 550 12 35 650 14 32 489 15 17 396 16 17 417 5,111 5,065 4,334 4,349 839 536 83 36 984 1,066 422 60 37 1,030 1,214 292 30 25 1,099 425 203 325 245 305 171 1,217 262 30 21 1,088 5 301 151 -397 -325 -343 -343 2,708 2,860 2,795 2,732 1,101 401 54 48 -77 406 107 66 -290 351 84 72 -290 381 84 62 1,604 502 217 237 - 1 -30 -51 -55 -55 9,394 8,376 7,291 7,263 3,354 735 316 697 1,035 3,007 671 327 580 1,273 2,962 630 335 513 1,075 728 1,157 795 178 157 153 2,553 578 314 359 839 38 474 170 142 7,043 7,171 6,464 5,467 500 Subtotal, Elementary, secondary, and vocational education 36 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 502 Higher education: Student financial assistance Guaranteed student loan program Proposed legislation Higher and continuing education Other general institutional assistance Special institutions Subtotal, Higher education 503 Research and general education aids: Educational research and statistics Cultural activities Other Subtotal, Research and general education aids 504 Training and employment: Employment and training assistance Proposed legislation Temporary employment assistance Older workers Work incentive program Federal-State employment service Other Subtotal, Training and employment 505 Other labor services: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, other labor services 506 Social services: Social services block grants Community service programs Child welfare block grant Proposed legislation Services for children, youth, and families, the elderly, and other special groups Proposed legislation Domestic volunteer programs Other social services Subtotal, Social services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 550 HEALTH 551 Health care services: Medicare Proposed legislation Medicare Premiums and Collections Proposed legislation Medicaid Proposed legislation Health block grants 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 3,906 2,259 3,513 3,039 3,254 3,331 369 49 206 348 117 219 373 74 245 3,137 3,313 -762 342 74 241 6,790 7,236 7,276 6,346 61 663 500 91 663 556 108 644 592 106 623 544 1,223 1,310 1,344 1,273 6,848 4,210 3,788 778 1,400 852 263 381 804 93 55 268 269 547 82 266 242 554 84 6 11 487 81 9,241 5,431 4,936 2,764 587 574 611 635 -2 587 574 611 633 2,646 619 180 2,912 508 493 2,450 368 532 1,974 183 423 -40 2,838 2,351 2,534 150 97 133 80 129 85 2,376 -4 119 69 6,531 6,476 6,098 5,101 -13 -31 -32 -32 31,402 28,167 26,697 21,552 42,489 49,872 57,823 -3,340 -3,862 -4,418 16,948 18,164 19,059 57,099 -1,747 -4,418 26 18,959 -1,883 387 37 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 4,254 4,376 4,394 3,605 647 Subtotal, Health care services 60,351 68,550 76,858 72,675 552 Health research: National Institutes of Health research Other research programs 3,394 442 3,422 418 3,575 433 3,515 427 3,836 3,840 4,008 3,941 553 Education and training of health care work force: Research training Clinical training Other 210 453 116 196 349 92 197 375 65 186 203 62 Subtotal, Education and training of health care workforce 779 637 637 451 668 677 717 353 339 343 716 -2 349 -8 1,042 1,017 1,060 Other health care services Proposed legislation Subtotal, Health research 554 Consumer and occupational health and safety: Consumer safety Proposed legislation Occupational safety and health Proposed legislation Subtotal, Consumer and occupational health and safety... Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 600 INCOME SECURITY 601 General retirement and disability insurance: Social security (OASDI) Proposed legislation Railroad retirement Proposed legislation Special benefits for disabled coal miners Other Subtotal, General retirement and disability insurance 602 Federal employee retirement and disability: Retirement and disability programs Proposed legislation Federal employee worker's compensation Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal employee retirement and disability 603 Unemployment compensation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Unemployment compensation 604 Housing assistance: Subsidized housing Other housing assistance Subtotal, Housing assistance 1,055 -25 -16 -17 -17 65,982 74,027 82,546 78,105 137,970 154,643 169,928 5,294 5,707 6,072 1,773 -13 1,957 -39 1,793 -17 169,928 3,608 6,072 -5,722 1,781 -16 145,024 162,268 177,776 175,650 17,309 19,116 21,215 238 269 398 21,215 -489 394 -58 17,547 19,385 21,613 21,062 19,664 25,245 22,747 22,747 -149 19,664 25,245 22,747 22,598 5,747 1,195 6,775 1,521 7,852 1,803 7,352 1,532 6,942 8,296 9,655 8,884 38 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 605 Food and nutrition assistance: Food stamps and aid to Puerto Rico Proposed legislation Child nutrition and other programs Proposed legislation Subtotal, Food and nutrition assistance 609 Other income security: Supplemental security income Proposed legislation AFDC and related assistance Proposed legislation Combined welfare administration Proposed legislation Earned income tax credit Refugee assistance Low income energy assistance Other Subtotal, Other income security Total outlays 700 VETERANS BENEFITS AND SERVICES 701 Income security for veterans: Service-connected compensation Proposed legislation Non-service-connected pensions Proposed legislation Burial and other benefits National service life insurance trust fund U.S. Government life insurance trust fund All other insurance programs Insurance program receipts Subtotal, Income security for veterans 702 Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation 703 Hospital and medical care for veterans: Medical care and hospital services Proposed legislation Construction Medical administration, research, and other Subtotal, Hospital and medical care for veterans 704 Veterans housing: Loan guaranty revolving fund Direct loan revolving fund Other (HUD participation trust fund) Housing program receipts (existing law) Housing program receipts (proposed) Current services 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 11,253 11,517 12,600 4,949 4,325 4,634 16,202 15,842 17,234 13,772 7,192 8,000 9,188 8,504 8,322 7,163 9,188 -286 7,163 -1,300 1,914 -259 1,180 633 1,300 237 1,914 1,318 726 1,780 202 1,254 849 1,865 223 1,180 892 1,865 229 12,600 -2,258 3,695 -265 19,721 20,514 22,431 19,770 225,099 251,549 271,455 261,736 8,426 9,488 10,316 3,755 3,944 4,077 208 965 70 -50 -465 145 979 62 -67 -476 141 991 60 -63 -470 9,609 561 4,077 -62 141 991 60 -63 -470 12,909 14,075 15,051 14,843 2,254 1,883 1,582 1,582 -25 2,254 1,883 1,582 1,557 6,320 6,945 7,570 412 233 444 206 524 211 7,364 5 524 216 6,965 7,594 8,305 8,108 278 -128 51 13 -68 -14 -573 -183 -13 -573 -183 -13 -95 39 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual Subtotal, Veterans housing 705 Other veterans benefits and services: VA administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Non-VA support programs Subtotal, Other veterans benefits and services Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 750 ADMINISTRATION OF JUSTICE 751 Federal law enforcement activities: General investigation (FBI) Narcotics violation investigation (DEA) Alcohol, tobacco, and firearms investigation (ATF) Border enforcement activities (Customs and INS) Protection activities (Secret Service) Other enforcement Subtotal, Federal law enforcement activities 752 Federal litigative and judicial activities: Civil and criminal prosecution and representation Federal judicial activities Representation of indigents in civil cases Subtotal, Federal litigative and judicial activities 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1983 administration proposals 201 -68 -769 -863 629 645 700 _702* 33 34 38 39 662 679 738 741 -3 -3 -3 -3 22,988 24,159 24,905 24,383 691 217 147 890 189 251 739 227 82 924 230 266 798 245 77 1,036 234 277 798 242 1,041 298 265 2,384 2,468 2,666 2,643 517 651 324 498 743 259 567 795 260 570 840 13 1,493 1,501 1,622 1,423 753 Federal correctional activities 361 376 387 386 754 Criminal justice assistance 473 318 183 162 -13 -35 -23 -23 4,698 4,628 4,836 4,592 1,036 1,194 1,174 1,204 99 94 101 101 2,429 -210 382 2,415 -158 343 2,460 -192 442 2,860 -192 424 2,600 2,599 2,711 3,092 -142 -33 84 260 1 65 73 288 -171 27 84 244 -171 35 84 244 169 428 184 192 159 131 140 140 197 184 186 169 Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 800 GENERAL GOVERNMENT 801 Legislative functions 802 Executive direction and management 803 Central fiscal operations: Collection of taxes Federal Financing Bank Other fiscal operations Subtotal, Central fiscal operations 804 General property and records management: Real property Personal property Records management Other Subtotal, General property and records management 805 Central personnel management 806 Other general government: Territories 40 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Indian affairs Treasury claims Other 12 506 -20 1983 estimate 11 506 -34 1983 administration proposals 14 506 -33 745 682 669 656 -195 -200 -186 -377 4,614 4,928 4,793 5,008 5,134 7 4,570 6 4,567 6 4,567 6 5,140 4,576 4,573 4,573 492 1 241 479 1 242 541* 541 * 242 342 450 104 605 96 763 96 763 423 5 411 7 416 5 45 416 5 Subtotal, Other general purpose fiscal assistance 1,716 1,841 2,063 2,113 Total outlays 6,856 6,417 6,636 6,686 95,503 115,700 135,529 133,229 -329 95,503 115,700 135,529 132,900 1,046 -8,570 -5,443 1,712 -11,885 -6,431 1,937 -15,171 -7,146 1,937 -15,171 -7,146 16 -12,967 -16,605 -20,380 -20,364 82,537 99,095 115,149 112,536 376 1,534 Subtotal, Other general government Deductions for offsetting receipts Total outlays 850 GENERAL PURPOSE FISCAL ASSISTANCE 851 General revenue sharing: General revenue sharing payments Administration Subtotal, General revenue sharing 852 Other general purpose fiscal assistance: Payments and loans to the District of Columbia New York City loan guarantees: administrative expenses,... Payments to States from Forest Service receipts Other payments to States and counties from Federal land management activities Payments in lieu of taxes Proposed legislation Payments to territories and Puerto Rico Other 900 INTEREST 901 Interest on the public debt: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Interest on the public debt 902 Other interest: Interest on refunds of tax collections Interest on loans to the Federal Financing Bank Other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Other interest x 150 504 -105 Current services 1982 estimate Total outlays 920 ALLOWANCES 921 Civilian agency pay raises 743 922 Reduction of fraud, waste, and abuse -1,000 924 Undistributed debt collection -1,000 927 Contingencies for relatively uncontrollable programs 928 Contingencies for other requirements Total outlays 376 1,534 -1,257 41 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table A-14. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION AND PROGRAM—Continued (In millions of dollars) Current services 1981 actual 1983 estimate -6,371 -7,560 -7,734 -7,734 -619 -6,371 -7,560 -7,734 -8,353 -13,810 -16,053 -16,062 -16,062 -59 -13,810 -16,053 -16,062 -16,122 -10,138 -7,861 -9,600 -18,000 Total outlays -30,320 -31,475 -33,396 -43,474 Total outlays 657,204 726,423 779,280 757,638 950 UNDISTRIBUTED OFFSETTING RECEIPTS 951 Employer share, employee retirement: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Employer share, employee retirement 952 Interest received by trust funds: Existing law Proposed legislation Subtotal, Interest received by trust funds 953 Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf 954 1983 administration proposals 1982 estimate -1,000 Federal surplus property disposition SPECIAL ANALYSIS B FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. FFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET XECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. Current Services Estimates B. Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts C. Funds in the Budget D. Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays E. Borrowing and Debt F. Federal Credit Programs G. Tax Expenditures H. Federal Aid to State and Local Governments I. Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch J. Civil Rights Activities K. Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS B FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS The budget is designed to serve several purposes: —It is an economic document that reflects the taxing and spending policies of the Government for promoting economic growth, high employment, relative price stability, and a strong balance-of-payments position. —It proposes an allocation of resources between the private and public sectors and within the public sector. Through its impact on consumption and investment decisions and the distribution of income it also affects allocation decisions within the private sector. —It sets forth the President's request to the Congress for appropriations action on existing or new programs and for changes in tax legislation. —It is a report to the Congress and the people on how the Government has spent the funds entrusted to it in past years. No single budget concept can satisfy all these purposes fully. The budget document and related Treasury reports provide complete, detailed information on the finances of the Federal Government and on the tax and spending programs proposed by the President. For study of aggregate economic activity, however, the national income and product accounts (NIA) of the United States provide the most useful measures. This special analysis shows Federal finances as measured in the NIA. The analysis is divided into three major sections. The first shows the size, composition, and trends in Federal sector receipts and expenditures. Additional details will be published in the March 1982 issue of the Department of Commerce publication, Survey of Current Business. The second section of this analysis shows quarterly estimates of Federal sector receipts and expenditures, while the final section explains the major differences between the budget and the NIA concepts. A discussion of fiscal policy can be found in the Economic Report of the President FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Table B - l shows Federal sector NIA receipts, expenditures, and deficits for 1981-83. 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table B - l . FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NIA (In billions of dollars) Description 1982 estimate 1981 actual RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals. Contributions for social insurance 290.7 69.6 56.6 196.1 303.5 58.7 57.4 221.4 613.0 641.0 218.3 (147.1) (71.2) 279.7 (273.9) (5.8) 90.1 66.9 13.0 -.1 249.0 (174.1) (74.9) 312.1 (306.0) (6.1) 86.3 81.4 12.5 .1 667.9 741.4 -54.9 -100.4 Total receipts.. EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises.. Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures.. Deficit ( - ) Note-. The estimates for 1982 and 1983 are preliminary; any revisions will be published in the March 1982 issue of the Survey of Current Business. Trends in Federal sector receipts.—Table B - l divides receipts into four major categories, which are also illustrated in the chart on the distribution of Federal sector receipts by category. Table B-2 shows, at 10-year intervals, 3-year averages of Federal sector receipts by category as a percent of the gross national product (GNP) for the early 1950's, 1960's, and 1970's to provide a perspective relative to the current levels of receipts. For the earlier periods, 3year averages were used in order to eliminate the impact of annual fluctuations and to permit greater focus on trends. However, there are now major changes in direction in the relative size of Federal sector receipts. To better reflect these changes the table shows the 1981 actual percentages and 1983 estimated percentages separately. Table B-2. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP Description Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts 1951-53 average actual 1961-63 average actual 1971-73 average actual 1981 actual 1983 estimate 7.4 5.7 3.0 2.1 8.6 4.2 2.6 3.5 9.0 3.2 1.9 5.1 10.2 2.4 2.0 6.9 9.0 2.3 1.7 7.1 18.2 18.9 19.2 21.4 20.0 5 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Personal tax and nontax receipts.—The largest receipt category— personal tax and nontax receipts—is composed primarily of individual income taxes but also includes estate and gift taxes and some miscellaneous receipts. Traditionally, increases in income, because of both real growth and inflation, would automatically increase these receipts. Indeed, since personal income taxes are progressive, these receipts normally grow at a faster rate than personal income. Periodically over the past three decades tax reductions were enacted that offset part of the increase in effective tax rates resulting from the progressive tax structure. However, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 has drastically altered these circumstances. That act provided for across-the-board tax reductions and—starting in 1985—indexing of income tax brackets, the zero bracket amount, and the personal exemption to inflation. As a result, personal tax and nontax receipts will increase at a much slower rate in the future than the increases that normally would have been called for under existing tax law. Distribution of Federal Sector Receipts by Category Percent 1956 Fiscal Years Percent 81 83 Estimate Corporate profits tax accruals.—Corporate profits tax accruals vary significantly from year to year because corporate profits are highly volatile. The NIA corporate profits taxes differ from the corresponding budget category primarily because: (1) the NIA includes the deposit of earnings by the Federal Reserve System as 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 corporate profits taxes, whereas the budget treats these collections as miscellaneous receipts; and (2) the NIA records corporate profits taxes when the profits are earned (that is, accrued), while the unified budget records the cash receipts. The gradual decline in corporate profits tax receipts relative to GNP and (as shown in the chart above) to total receipts results mainly from three factors: (1) a long-term decline in corporate profits relative to GNP; (2) a narrowing of the corporate profits tax base resulting from changes in the definition of corporate profits for tax purposes (largely increases in permissible depreciation allowances); and (3) reductions in effective tax rates on corporate profits resulting from statutory rate reductions and tax credits. Recently enacted tax changes designed to stimulate investment further accelerated this trend toward a relative reduction in corporate profits taxes. Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.—These receipts are composed of excise taxes, customs duties, and various miscellaneous receipts such as the windfall profit tax, rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf lands, import fees on crude oil and petroleum products, and coal-mining reclamation fees. Over time, indirect business tax and nontax accruals have become a much less important part of total Federal sector receipts, partly because they normally do not rise in proportion to the growth in the economy and partly because some of them, such as the automobile and telephone excise taxes, have been reduced or repealed. Despite this relative decline, the use of excise taxes as user charges to finance Federal programs such as highways and airways makes this an important source of financing certain specialized programs in the budget. Contributions for social insurance.—This is the second largest category of Federal sector receipts. The increase since World War II has been caused by the growth in the labor force and in wage rates, the expanded coverage of existing social insurance programs, the enactment of new ones, and increases in the taxable wage base and tax rates needed to finance liberalization of benefits. As a result of the rapid rise in social insurance taxes (mainly social security) and the passage of legislation reducing or eliminating individual income taxes for many low- and moderate-income individuals and families, millions of Americans now pay significantly higher social insurance taxes than income taxes. The combined effect of the tax reductions provided by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the social security tax increases under current laws—plus the proposal to include Federal civilian employees under hospital insurance taxes for the first time—dramatically SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 7 reinforce this trend toward social insurance collections rising relative to total NIA receipts. Major tax changes.—Last year the Congress enacted one of the most sweeping sets of changes in tax law ever enacted: the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. This budget proposes some relatively small additional tax changes—most of which will affect years beyond 1983—but almost all of the changes in tax receipts reflected herein due to legislation arise from the effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and from changes in the social security tax rates and base that occur automatically under current law. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981: —Marginal individual income tax rates were reduced by 5% effective October 1, 1981. They will be reduced an additional 10% effective July 1, 1982 and an additional 8% effective July 1, 1983 from the levels called for under prior law. —Other major changes affecting personal taxes include reducing the maximum marginal income tax rate to 50%, reducing the maximum effective tax rates on capital gains, allowing taxpayers who do not itemize deductions to deduct charitable contributions, permiting taxpayers who are covered by retirement programs to open tax-exempt individual retirement accounts, and significantly reducing tax liabilities under estate and gift taxes. —Corporation income taxes were reduced through imposition of lower tax rates on the first $50,000 of corporate taxable income, faster write-offs under depreciation allowances, and liberalization in provisions permitting less profitable corporations to transfer tax benefits to more profitable ones. Social insurance contributions: —Under previously enacted legislation, the Federal social security taxable earnings base increased from $29,700 in calendar year 1981 to $32,400 in 1982 and is estimated to increase to $35,100 in 1983. The social security tax rate also rose in 1981 (to 13.3%) and in 1982 (to 13.4%). The next scheduled increase is to 14.1% in 1985. —Under the administration's proposals, the railroad retirement trust fund is to be abolished at the end of 1982. The railroad retirement covered population is proposed to be included under social security and medicare in the same manner as if they had always been under social security; the railroad retirement program in excess of that provided by social security is proposed to be absorbed by a Government-created private insurance corporation. 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 —Most Federal civilian employees are not covered by social security or medicare—they are generally covered by Federal employee staff pensions (such as the civil service retirement fund) and medical insurance programs. The administration is recommending that Federal civilian employees be included in the hospital insurance program; this will raise contributions for social insurance by $1.2 billion in 1983. Additional details about enacted and proposed tax changes can be. found in Part 4 of the 1983 Budget on a unified budget basis; additional detail on an NIA basis will be published in the March 1982 Survey of Current Business. Trends in Federal sector expenditures.—Federal sector expenditures are also divided into several major NIA categories. The principal distinction is between purchases of goods and services (which are divided between defense and nondefense purchases) and all other transactions. Purchases are that portion of the Nation's output that is bought directly by the Federal Government and, therefore, included in the GNP. The other expenditure categories consist primarily of payments to individuals and grants to State and local governments. These individuals and governments, in turn, can use the income to finance their own consumption or purchases of goods and services, to save, and—in the case of States and localities—to hold down taxes or to make transfer payments. The chart on the distribution of Federal sector expenditures illustrates the trends starting with 1956. As can be seen, major shifts in the composition of Federal sector expenditures occur over time. For example, for most years since the Korean war, defense purchases of goods and services have been a declining share of Federal spending. This pattern was temporarily reversed for 3 years during the Vietnam period, but by 1970 the defense share was well below the pre-Vietnam percentages. This budget reflects the President's efforts to reverse the relative decline in our Nation's defense capability that accompanied these reductions. Defense purchases are expected to total 23.5% of Federal sector expenditures in 1982 and 25.8% in 1983; they were 22.0% in 1981, and 21.8% in 1980. As with table B-2, table B-3 shows historical data on 3-year averages in order to reflect basic trends, but the 1981 and 1983 data show the major shifts from trend in the 1983 budget. Defense purchases and foreign transfer payments are, of course, largely devoted to the conduct of our national defense and foreign affairs. In 1951-53 defense purchases were 10.9% of GNP; 1951 was the first year of the Korean war. Foreign transfer payments in 1951-53 averaged 0.8% of GNP. The total of these—11.7%—reflects roughly the cost of the conduct of external affairs. The years 196163, a post-Korean war peacetime period, reflected a significantly 9 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Fiscal Years Estimate Table B-3. FEDERAL SECTOR EXPENDITURES AS A PERCENT OF GNP Description Defense purchases Nondefense purchases Domestic transfer payments Foreign transfer payments Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises... Total expenditures 1961-63 average actual 1951-53 average actual 1971-73 average actual 1983 estimate 1981 actual 10.9 8.9 6.4 5.1 5.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.5 4.6 6.8 9.6 9.5 .8 .4 .2 .2 .2 .8 1.4 2.9 3.2 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.3 2.8 .3 .7 .7 .5 .3 18.2 19.3 20.6 23.4 22.9 lower level of defense expenditures relative to the GNP than was prevalent prior to the Korean war. In that period, defense purchases and foreign transfers combined were equal to 9.4% of GNP. Even though the 1971-73 period included some spending for the Vietnam war, defense purchases and foreign transfers were down to 6.6% of GNP. In 1981, defense purchases plus foreign transfer payments were equal to 5.3% of the GNP—well below the 1971-73 average—but by 1983 they are expected to total 6.1% of GNP. 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Over the past several decades, spending on most other expenditure categories—especially nondefense purchases, domestic transfer payments, and grants-in-aid—has risen dramatically relative to GNP. 1951-53 spending for everything except defense purchases and foreign transfer payments was equal to 6.6% of GNP; in 197173 such spending is estimated to equal 14% of GNP. In 1981 all other Federal spending was equal to 18.0% of GNP, while spending on defense purchases and foreign transfer payments was equal to 5.3%. The current effort to strengthen our national defense capability and to simultaneously reduce the size of the Government relative to the economy will begin to have a noticeable effect by 1983. In that year, defense purchases are estimated at 0.8% of GNP higher than just 2 years earlier, while all other spending is estimated to decline by 1.3 percentage points relative to GNP from 1981. Table B-4 displays purchases of goods and services (defense and nondefense) with a split by character of expenditures between compensation of employees and all other purchases. Table B-4. PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY CHARACTER OF EXPENDITURE (In billions of dollars) 1978 actual Defense purchases: Compensation of employees Other Total defense purchases Nondefense purchases: Compensation of employees Other Total nondefense 1979 actual 1980 actual 1980 actual 1981 actual 1983 estimate 45.4 52.6 48.0 59.4 51.4 74.7 57.6 89.5 64.2 109.9 69.5 133.7 98.0 107.4 126.1 147.1 174.1 203.2 25.1 27.6 26.7 29.3 28.6 35.5 30.4 40.8 31.2 43.7 32.5 37.2 52.7 56.0 64.1 71.2 74.9 69.7 Defense purchases of goods and services.—Defense purchases consist of all purchases of goods and services under programs included in the national defense function in the budget document. In addition, defense purchases include purchases of goods and services by the military assistance programs that in earlier years had been classified in the national defense function but are now classified in the international affairs function in the budget. Normally about 95% of defense purchases are made by the Department of Defense, Military. The bulk of the remainder is for international security assistance, defense stockpiles, civil defense, and nuclear weapons programs carried out by other agencies. The budget calls for an increase in defense purchases of $29.1 billion in 1983 over 1982. This increase more than offsets the impact of inflation, thus continuing the recent trend of rising 11 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A defense purchases in real terms. The pattern of real defense spending has altered significantly over the past decade. From a Vietnam peak in 1968, real defense purchases declined each year until 1976. Between 1976 and 1978 they stayed remarkably stable, and starting in 1979 began the rise that is continuing in this budget. While real (i.e., price adjusted) defense spending has increased each year since 1979, the rate of increase was sufficiently slow that defense purchases continued to decline relative to GNP. However, in 1982 and 1983 the rate of increase is sufficiently high that defense purchases are projected to rise relative to GNP for these years. Constant price data for NIA defense purchases are available for all years since 1972. While similar data are not available for years prior to 1972, the budget includes constant price estimates of outlays in the national defense function. This category and defense purchases in the NIA are sufficiently similar so that these figures give a rough approximation of the same transactions. Table B-5 shows the budget estimates of outlays in constant prices for the national defense function for selected years and defense purchases by year since 1972. Table B-5. DEFENSE OUTLAYS IN CONSTANT (FISCAL YEAR 1972) PRICES (In billions of dollars) National defense budget outlays 1945 1 1948 2 1950 3 1953 4 1956 s 1965 6 1968 7 1970-74 average 1975-78 average 1979-82 average estimate 1983 estimate 1 L' :t 4 5 7 K ,J Defense purchases of goods and services 255.5 20.5 29.7 96.6 74.1 69.3 101.7 77.3 68.2 75.7 90.4 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 s 1979 1980 1981 9 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 72.2 68.1 64.4 64.1 63.1 63.3 62.8 64.0 67.6 70.0 76.1 83.1 World War II peak year. Post-World War II low; includes large offsets from sale of assets acquired during the war. Last year prior to Korean war. Korean war peak year. Post-Korean war low in the 1950's. Post-Korean war low in the 1960's. Peak of spending during Vietnam war. Lowest point in post-Vietnam era. Last year for which "actual" data are available. Nondefense purchases of goods and services.—This category covers the goods and services purchased by Federal nondefense agencies. These include such programs as operation of national forest, park, and recreation areas; space exploration; promotion of commerce; acquisition and disposal of agricultural commodities; construction of flood control and navigation projects; operation of the Federal airway system; a wide variety of medical, energy, space, and other scientific research; the capital outlays of Govern- 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 ment enterprises; Federal law enforcement; and operation of veterans hospitals. Table B-6 shows these purchases by agency for the years 1975 to 1983. To the extent feasible the data base was reconstructed to show Departments of Education and Energy spending in the successor agencies proposed in the 1983 budget. Nondefense purchases consist mainly of the cost of operating the various nondefense agencies. In the case of Government enterprises (including the CCC and the Postal Service), however, the purchases figures reflect net capital formation. The most volatile major segment of nondefense purchases is CCC purchases, because the Corporation buys and sells agricultural commodities. On occasion—as in 1979 and in 1983—such sales may exceed new purchases. Table B-6.—NONDEFENSE PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY AGENCY AND ACTIVITY (In billions of dollars) Estimate Actual 1975 Legislative and judicial branches Department of Agriculture Commodity Credit Corporation Forest Service All other Department of Commerce Corps of Engineers, Civil Department of Health and Human Services Health Income security and other Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration Other Department of the Treasury Internal Revenue Service Other Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Hospital and medical care Administration and other All other Tennessee Valley Authority 1.0 2.6 (0.2) (0.8) (1.5) 2.3 2.1 4.8 (3.2) (1.6) 0.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.7 2.9 (0.8) (1.7) (0.4) 2.5 (1.6) (0.9) 0.5 3.2 4.1 (3.6) (0.5) 6.1 (1.0) 1976 1.1 2.6 (0.2) (0.9) (1-5) 3.0 2.2 5.3 (3.6) (1.7) 0.5 2.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 3.2 (0.9) (1.8) (0.4) 2.7 (1.7) (1.0) 0.5 3.6 4.7 (3.9) (0.7) 5.6 (1.1) 1977 1.4 5.4 (2.6) (1.1) (1.7) 4.0 2.3 5.7 (3.7) (2.0) 0.5 2.9 1.6 1.1 1.0 3.6 (1.0) (2.0) (0.5) 2.9 (1.8) (1.1) 0.6 3.9 5.2 (4.6) (0.7) 6.3 (1.2) 1978 1.5 4.5 (0.9) (1.2) (2.3) 5.1 2.6 6.4 (4.4) (2.0) 0.6 3.1 1.8 1.3 1.2 3.9 (1.1) (2.2) (0.6) 3.1 (1.9) (1.2) 0.6 3.9 5.8 (5.1) (0.7) 7.3 (1.5) 1979 1.6 2.8 (-0.9) (1.5) (2.2) 6.2 2.9 6.8 (4.6) (2.3) 0.7 3.5 1.9 1.7 1.4 4.3 (1-3) (2.3) (0.8) 3.5 (2.1) (1.4) 0.8 4.1 6.2 (5.4) (0.7) 7.6 (2.0) 1980 1.8 5.5 (1.1) (1.8) (2.6) 6.6 3.3 7.9 (5.3) (2.5) 0.5 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.5 4.8 (1-4) (2.5) (0.9) 4.0 (2.3) (1.7) 0.9 4.8 7.1 (6.3) (0.8) 8.7 (1.7) 1981 1.8 6.0 (1.4) (1.9) (2.7) 6.5 3.2 8.6 (5.9) (2.6) -0.1 7.0 2.4 1.9 1.5 5.0 (1.6) (2.7) (0.7) 4.0 (2.4) (1.6) 1.0 5.3 7.6 (6.8) (0.9) 9.5 (1-7) 1982 2.2 7.9 (3.3) (1-9) (2.6) 5.8 3.0 8.8 (5.6) (3.3) 0.2 5.5 2.4 2.0 1.7 5.3 (1.9) (2.6) (0.9) 4.4 (2.5) (1.9) 1.1 5.7 8.2 (7.4) (0.8) 10.7 (2.2) 1983 2.3 2.7 (-1.4) (1-8) (2.3) 3.9 2.6 8.6 (5.4) (3.2) 0.2 5.7 2.6 1.8 2.0 5.7 (1.9) (3.0) (0.8) 4.8 (2.9) (1.9) 1.0 6.2 8.7 (7.9) (0.7) 10.9 (2.2) Table B-6—NONDEFENSE PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY AGENCY AND ACTIVITY—Continued (In billions of dollars) Actual 1975 OPM: Employee health benefits and imputed employee retirement contributions. Postal Service Imputed bank service charges Foundation for Education Assistance Other Total 1976 1977 1978 Estimate 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (0.6) (0.7) (0.5) (0.3) (3.0) (0.7) (0.7) (0.3) (0.3) (2.5) (0.9) (0.4) (0.5) (0.3) (3.0) (1.1) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) (3.5) (1.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.3) (3.1) (1.7) (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (4.3) (2.0) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (4.5) (2.2) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (5.0) (2.4) (0.9) (0.4) (0.3) (4.7) 37.7 40.7 48.4 52.7 56.0 64.1 71.2 74.9 69.7 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 15 Normally the Department of Health and Human Services accounts for more nondefense purchases than any other agency, but the decline estimated in 1983 combined with the rise in Veterans Administration spending is projected to move it to second place. Its nondefense purchases are estimated to total $8.8 billion in 1982 and $8.6 billion in 1983. Of the 1983 total, $5.4 billion is for health programs—both for the administration of health care and for medical research—and $3.2 billion is for income security and related programs, especially for the costs of administering the old-age, survivors, and disability (social security) trust funds. The next largest agency in terms of nondefense purchases traditionally has been the Veterans Administration, which is expected to surpass the HHS total in 1983. The bulk of these purchases are for hospital and medical care for veterans. Both the National Aeronautics and Space Administration with $6.2 billion in 1983 nondefense purchases and the Department of Commerce with $3.9 billion in 1983 nondefense purchases conduct major research and development programs, though the Commerce Department also has purchases for a wide range of other activities. (The Commerce Department spending shown herein also includes the bulk of nondefense purchases for energy.) The Transportation Department's $5.7 billion of 1983 nondefense purchases are mainly for the operation of the Federal Aviation Agency and the Coast Guard. The Corps of Engineers has an estimated $2.6 billion in 1983 nondefense purchases which, along with the Tennessee Valley Authority's $2.2 billion, is primarily for public works for natural resources and power activities. Domestic transfer payments.—This is the largest category of Federal sector expenditures. Spending for domestic transfers has expanded rapidly in recent years, mainly because of more beneficiaries and higher benefit payments under social insurance programs. As table B-7 shows, spending on human resources programs—especially income security programs—dominates domestic transfer payments. This spending is expected to continue to rise in 1983, largely due to demographic and economic conditions—increases in the covered population and adjustments to compensate for inflation. Social security accounts for 51.8% of total domestic transfer payments in 1983, while medicare accounts for another 16.6%, unemployment assistance for 6.4%, Federal employee's retirement and disability civilian and military for 11.1%, and veterans benefits for 5.2% of the total. Program trends (on a unified budget basis) are discussed extensively in Part 5 of the Budget and elsewhere in the budget documents. The great bulk of domestic transfer payments is for income support and characterized by automatic eligibility of coverage and automatic benefit increases with price changes. For these programs the demographic and economic 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 conditions completely dominate the growth patterns, and the rate of growth is quite substantial for all years shown herein. However, for those programs that are less fully automatic—primarily in the education, training, employment, and social services function in the human resources grouping, and in the nonhuman resources functions—the budget proposes significant restraint in the spending levels. The table reflects the administration's proposal to include the railroad retirement population under social security in 1983 and to abolish the railroad retirement trust fund. Table B-7 FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS (In billions of dollars) Actual Description HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Social security (OASDI) Railroad retirement Civil service retirement Unemployment benefits-. Benefits for coal miners Supplemental security income Food and nutrition Special payments, Treasury1 Workmen's compensation Other Subtotal, Income security Health: Medicare Other Subtotal, Health Education, social training, services: employment, 1975 1976 Estimate 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 70.3 3.4 8.2 18.3 1.0 4.6 4.7 .9 .5 .2 81.1 3.7 9.4 14.2 .9 4.7 4.4 .9 .5 .2 89.3 3.9 10.8 10.9 1.0 4.9 4.5 .9 .6 .2 99.4 4.2 12.3 9.9 1.6 5.2 5.7 .8 .7 .1 113.7 4.7 14.5 16.3 1.8 5.7 7.9 1.3 .8 .6 134.1 5.2 17.4 18.1 1.7 6.4 9.6 1.4 .9 .2 150.1 5.2 19.1 23.3 1.6 7.0 9.6 1.3 1.0 .8 168.1 .3 .1 61.5 3.0 6.9 12.5 .9 4.2 4.2 1.7 .4 .1 61.8 72.9 95.5 111.9 120.2 127.0 139.9 167.2 195.1 219.0 230.7 8.3 .4 9.0 .4 10.9 .4 14.1 .5 16.9 .6 20.7 .6 24.2 .6 28.1 .7 33.8 .8 41.1 .7 48.1 .7 53.9 .7 8.8 9.4 11.4 14.6 17.4 21.3 24.8 28.7 34.6 41.9 48.8 54.7 .8 .8 .8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.2 5.3 4.6 .8 .7 .7 .6 .4 .6 .6 .6 .6 .8 .7 .3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.8 6.0 6.0 4.9 38.0 2.1 3.8 6.5 .4 46.6 2.4 4.5 4.9 .9 1.8 2.1 53.2 2.6 5.6 5.6 1.0 1.9 2.7 .2 .1 .2 .1 52.9 20.3 20.9 1.6 8.0 8.9 1.2 1.1 .7 and Education Training, employment, and social services Subtotal, education, training, employment, and social services 1974 1973 1972 Table B-7 FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS—Continued (In billions of dollars) Actual Description 1972 Veterans benefits and services 1973 1974 1975 Estimate 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 8.8 9.7 10.4 12.8 14.3 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.5 16.4 16.9 71.9 82.5 96.3 124.8 146.0 157.8 168.9 186.7 220.9 258.4 290.3 307.2 3.8 .4 4.3 .4 5.0 .5 6.2 .4 7.2 .6 8.1 .7 9.0 .7 10.1 1.0 11.8 2.1 13.5 1.9 14.8 .9 16.2 1.2 Total functions not included in human resources grouping.... 4.2 4.7 5.6 6.6 7.8 8.8 9.8 11.1 13.8 15.5 15.7 17.4 Total domestic transfer payments 76.1 87.2 101.8 131.4 153.8 166.6 178.7 197.8 234.7 273.9 306.0 324.6 Total, human resources programs ALL OTHER FUNCTIONS National defense (military retired pay) All other functions 1 Includes both $50 tax rebates and earned income tax credits in excess of tax liabilities. Note.—Excludes the transition quarter. H ffl W w a o Q M H O » w o> r •c M > SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 19 Grants-in-aid.—These expenditures help State and local governments to provide general public services and to finance programs for the needy. Table B-8 shows detail on grants-in-aid by budget function and major activity. Grant expenditures are discussed in greater detail in Special Analysis H. While the definition of Federal aid used in that analysis differs somewhat from that used in the NIA, the two sets of data largely overlap. Special Analysis H explains the relationship between the series. There is a substantial degree of substitutability between grantsin-aid and domestic transfer payments and—to a lesser degree— nondefense purchases. For example, low-income veterans could be eligible for free medical care under medicaid (Federal grants to finance State and local purchases), in a veterans hospital (nondefense purchases), or, perhaps under medicare (transfer payments). The supplemental security income transfer payments have substituted for the previous program of grants to States for public assistance for the elderly and handicapped. (The State and local spending of Federal grant money for public assistance programs is classified as State and local government transfer payments.) Most grants in the income security function plus medicaid are grants to assist States to provide income support; most other grants finance State and local services to the public. (However, the income support may be aid in-kind as is the case of medicaid where the State and local spending is to purchase medical care for the poor.) One of the major thrusts of this administration is to reduce both the level and complexity of Federal grant programs, and to surrender to State and local governments tax sources that they may tap to finance from their own revenues those portions of programs currently financed by grants that they choose to retain. To some extent the major tax reductions enacted last year and the grant reductions proposed in this budget carry out that policy. But the primary effect of this approach will be felt in the years beyond 1983, years that are beyond the scope of this analysis. Extensive discussion of these basic policies can be found in the 1983 budget document. to o Table B-8. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (In billions of dollars) Estimate Actual Description 1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1976 1978 1979 1980 1982 1981 1983 HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Public assistance cash 1 Child nutrition and other food programs.. Other Subtotal, income security Health: Medicaid Other (includes research, construction, services, and medical training) Subtotal, health Education, training, employment, social services: Education Training and employment Social services Veterans benefits and services Total, human resources programs 5.9 1.1 .5 5.4 1.2 .5 5.1 1.7 .9 5.8 2.1 1.2 6.3 2.7 1.3 6.6 2.8 1.3 6.5 3.3 1.5 7.2 3.6 3.0 8.4 4.4 4.1 8.0 3.9 4.5 7.4 3.1 3.9 7.8 7.5 7.1 7.7 9.2 10.4 10.8 11.3 13.8 16.8 16.4 14.4 4.6 4.6 5.8 6.8 8.6 9.8 10.6 12.4 13.9 16.8 17.8 17.0 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.6 6.1 6.3 7.8 9.2 11.4 12.7 13.4 15.1 16.7 19.9 21.2 20.5 3.8 1.7 3.1 3.6 2.2 3.0 3.5 1.9 2.9 4.6 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.6 3.8 4.9 6.0 4.4 5.5 9.5 5.0 6.6 9.2 5.8 7.3 8.5 5.0 7.2 7.4 5.3 7.2 3.8 5.5 6.5 1.9 4.4 8.6 8.7 8.4 11.7 13.9 15.4 20.0 21.6 20.7 19.8 16.6 12.8 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 and Subtotal, education, training, employment, and social services Natural resources and environment 6.6 .9 .4 * * * * 22.6 22.5 23.3 28.7 34.5 38.5 44.2 48.1 51.3 56.7 54.2 47.8 .8 1.1 2.0 2.3 2.9 4.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 4.8 5.0 4.0 H ffl H W c a o M H ^ o CO o> r ! >< >W OO oo Community and regional development: Local public works Block grants Other Subtotal, community and regional development Transportation. .6 2.9 1.6 .4 1.0 2.0 2.4 3.1 4.0 4.3 4.4 3.8 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.8 4.9 8.1 9.5 11.8 12.2 11.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.1 4.6 4.6 .9 1.1 1.2 1.3 L6 CO ^ M Q > > 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.4 4.4 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.8 7.5 7.7 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.2 General purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Anti-recession fiscal assistance.. Other 1.7 .1 .1 11.1 1.3 .4 .4 .5 .4 .5 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.7 9.0 8.9 7.8 7.9 6.3 5.9 6.1 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 4.1 4.2 3.9 2.8 Total other functions.. 10.0 17.9 18.4 19.7 23.0 27.7 30.4 31.0 35.4 33.4 32.1 29.0 Total grants-in-aid 32.6 40.4 48.4 57.5 66.3 74.7 79.1 86.7 86.3 76.8 Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance All other functions ' 5 0 million or less. Note. -Excludes the transition quarter. 1 Including grants for combined welfare administration and for child support enforcement. 41.6 90.1 > r w w 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Foreign transfer payments.—There are three major types of foreign transfer payments: expenditure of dollars to assist foreign economic development, grants of surplus agricultural products, and payments under social security and similar programs to individuals living abroad. Although payments to individuals are gradually rising (roughly in proportion with the rise in GNP), total foreign transfer payments have declined to less than 0.2% of GNP. The peak year for foreign transfer payments was 1949; in that year they were equal to 1.9% of GNP. Net interest paid.—Net interest depends on the size of Federal debt, loans outstanding, and the interest rates on borrowing and lending. In the early post-war years (1947-48), net interest paid amounted to over 13% of total Federal sector NIA expenditures, but it accounted for around 6-7% of the total each year from 1952 to 1977. Net interest paid rose from 6.9% of Federal sector expenditures in 1977 to 10.0% in 1981 and an estimated 12.2% in 1983. In recent years foreign holdings of Federal debt have increased significantly. This expansion, combined with higher interest rates, pushed up the amount of interest paid abroad to over $16.0 billion in 1981, five times the $3.2 billion total in 1973. These foreign interest payments are partially offset by interest collections from abroad; in 1973 such collections totaled $0.9 billion and in 1981 they totaled $2.2 billion. The increase in foreign holdings of Federal debt and in interest payments on that debt is discussed further in Special Analysis E. Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises.—Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises consist of two elements: (1) subsidy payments to resident businesses (including farms); and (2) the "current surplus" or "deficit" of Government enterprises. In this context, a subsidy is a monetary grant to a unit engaged in commercial activities. Examples are housing subsidies, subsidies for railroads, and the construction and operating differential subsidies paid to operators of U.S.-flag merchant ships. As table B-9 shows, roughly half of the subsidies are for housing programs. These subsidies are designed mainly to reduce the cost of housing to moderate- and low-income families. "Government enterprise" is the term used in the NIA to designate certain business-type operations of the Government, which usually appear in the budget as public enterprise revolving funds. The operating costs of Government enterprises are, to a great extent, covered by the sale of goods and services to the public rather than from tax receipts. The difference between the sales and the current operating expenses of a Government enterprise constitutes its surplus or deficit. As noted above, the capital formation of Government enterprises is classified as nondefense purchases. The SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 23 largest Government enterprises are the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Postal Service (which is not now included in the budget), and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Table B-9 shows the composition of this aggregation by major category. Table B - 9 . SUBSIDIES LESS CURRENT SURPLUS OF GOVERNMENT ENTERPRISES (In billions of dollars) Actual Description 1972 Subsidies: Commodity Credit Corporation Rural housing insurance fund Other Department of Agriculture Maritime Housing (HUD) Railroad and mass transit Other 1 Subtotal Enterprise surpluses ( - ) or deficits: Commodity Credit Corporation Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority Federal Housing Administration Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.... Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation All other 2 1 2 1974 1975 2.9 .1 .4 .4 1.3 .1 .2 3.6 .1 .4 .4 1.7 .1 1.1 2.4 5.3 .6 1.7 1977 1976 1980 1979 1978 1981 0.3 .3 .3 .5 2.3 1.1 .1 0.6 .4 .3 .5 2.9 1.4 .3 2.3 .4 .4 .5 3.5 1.5 .2 2.0 .6 .3 .5 4.3 1.7 .4 0.5 .3 .4 1.9 0.6 .2 .4 .5 2.1 .5 .1 7.4 5.4 4.4 5.0 6.4 8.9 1.3 1.7 .3 2.5 -.3 .2 2.8 -.4 2.0 1.9 .1 .3 .6 5.1 2.1 .4 1.4 .7 .3 .6 6.5 2.2 .1 1.5 .7 .3 .6 7.8 1.9 9.9 9.6 11.8 13.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.2 1.5 .9 .6 - . 2 - . 2 1.0 2.2 -.3 - . 6 - . 6 - . 8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 -.3 -.3 - 1 - 2 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 - . 1 - . 1 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.4 -.4 -.3 -.4 - . 1 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 - . 2 -.3 -.3 -.3 -.4 -.4 - . 6 -.4 -.3 -.5 - . 6 .4 -.9 Subtotal 1.2 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.2 Total subsidies less current surplus 6.5 9.2 7.6 6.0 6.2 .2 - . 1 7.0 9.6 9.8 1.1 1.2 -.5 10.8 13.0 12.5 Includes subsidies by the disaster loan fund of $0.7 billion in 1973. Includes proposed legislation for subsidies as part of the economic stimulas program and the 8 % sound security tax credit. Includes wage disbursements less accruals. Note.—Excludes the transition quarter. 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 25 Wage disbursements less accruals.—This is an adjustment item occasionally made in the NIA when it is necessary to take account of the fact that wages and salaries are not always received at the same time as they are earned. The national income component of wages and salaries is counted in the GNP on an accrual basis; that is, when the income is earned rather than when it is received. Personal income, however, including wage and salary disbursements, is estimated on the basis of when the cash is received. Ordinarily, wage and salary payments disbursed in one period but earned in the preceding period are approximately offset by payments disbursed in the next period but earned in the current period. The adjustment between national income and personal income is then small or zero. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES Table B-10 presents quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures (at seasonally adjusted annual rates) for 1981 to 1983. The translation of the budget into the NIA categories is inexact. When the annual NIA estimates are converted into quarterly distributions that are seasonally adjusted at annual rates, greater imprecision must be expected. The data presented in table B-10 are the best available estimates of the quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures consistent with the 1983 budget, but should be used with clear recognition of their limitations. Table B-10. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NIA, QUARTERLY, 1981-83 (In billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Estimated Actual Description Oct.-Dec. 1980 Jan.-Mar. 1981 Apr-June 1981 July-Sept. 1981 Oct.-Dec. 1981 Jan.-Mar. 1982 Apr.-June 1982 July-Sept. 1982 Oct.-Dec. 1982 Jan-Mar. 1983 Apr-June 1983 July-Sept. 1983 272.9 72.6 49.1 178.6 283.3 74.6 60.6 198.9 293.2 64.8 62.6 200.4 306.4 66.4 61.8 203.7 301.9 57.2 59.0 206.9 304.1 58.2 56.5 221.2 315.6 57.4 56.5 225.8 295.0 62.0 57.7 230.2 302.0 63.9 57.5 230.7 310.9 80.4 57.2 242.4 319.0 83.1 57.5 247.0 298.5 84.9 58.1 251.8 573.2 617.4 621.0 638.3 625.0 640.0 655.3 644.9 654.1 690.9 706.6 693.3 212.0 (141.6) (70.4) 269.0 (262.6) (6.4) 221.6 (145.2) (76.4) 271.9 (267.3) (4.7) 219.5 (148.2) (71.3) 274.8 (270.7) (4.1) 226.4 (154.1) (72.2) 293.6 (287.8) (5.8) 246.7 (165.8) (81.0) 297.5 (291.8) (5.7) 249.5 (173.1) (76.4) 308.4 (302.2) (6.2) 247.1 (176.5) (70.6) 316.0 (309.8) (6.2) 252.4 (180.9) (71.5) 326.7 (320.5) (6.2) 262.2 (190.7) (71.5) 325.5 (319.3) (6.2) 269.1 (198.9) (70.2) 327.9 (321.7) (6.2) 276.3 (207.1) (69.2) 329.4 (323.2) (6.2) 283.8 (216.0) (67.8) 340.7 (334.5) (6.2) 91.8 55.2 90.2 67.7 89.6 70.4 85.4 75.6 82.9 79.4 84.5 80.0 88.4 82.6 89.2 83.6 81.7 84.5 77.7 93.5 75.5 101.0 72.3 104.7 13.1 0 12.6 0 13.9 0 13.3 -0.2 13.1 0.1 12.4 0.2 11.7 12.8 11.5 11.2 10.8 11.1 641.1 664.0 668.2 694.0 719.4 735.0 745.8 764.7 765.4 779.4 793.0 812.6 -67.9 -46.6 -47.2 -55.7 -94.4 -95.0 -90.5 -119.8 -111.3 -88.5 -86.4 -119.3 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals.... Contributions for social insurance Total, receipts EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic (to "persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures Deficit ( - ) Note.—Because of the methods normally used seasonally adjusting NIA data, the average of seasonally adjusted data for the 4 quarters of a fiscal year may not be equal to the unadjusted, fiscal year total. 27 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR NIA Table B - l l shows the major differences between the budget and the Federal sector of the NIA. These differences are explained below. Table B - l l . RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR, NIA (In billions of dollars) Description 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1979 actual 1980 actual 1981 actual 463.3 517.1 599.3 626.8 666.1 7.5 6.5 4.5 -1.2 0.1 8.4 7.6 -4.4 -1.2 -0.1 9.4 9.4 -2.8 -1.3 — 1.0 10.8 10.2 -4.8 -1.5 -0.5 11.3 11.9 -1.8 -1.6 -0.3 480.7 527.3 613.0 641.0 685.7 491.0 576.7 657.2 725.3 757.6 -7.2 7.5 6.5 -0.6 1.9 -3.9 -0.4 -10.3 8.4 7.6 -0.6 2.2 -4.5 -1.3 -7.4 9.3 9.4 -1.4 7.9 -4.6 -2.6 -3.5 10.8 10.2 -0.3 4.9 -4.7 -1.3 -2.5 11.3 11.9 -3.3 14.7 -4.5 2.3 494.7 578.2 667.9 741.4 787.6 RECEIPTS Total budget receipts Government contributions for employee retirement (grossing).. Other netting and grossing Adjustment to accruals Geographic exclusions Other Federal sector, NIA receipts EXPENDITURES Total budget outlays Lending and financial transactions Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing)... Other netting and grossing Defense timing adjustment Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases Geographic exclusions Other Federal sector, NIA expenditures Lending and financial transactions.—Conceptually, the national income and product accounts measure the Nation's current income and production, and therefore do not include transactions, such as loans, that are an exchange of existing assets and liabilities rather than current income or production. Loan transactions have a significant economic impact, affecting income and output, but they are analyzed more appropriately within a financial market framework, such as provided by the flow-of-funds data of the Federal Reserve Board. Special Analysis E (Borrowing and Investment) and Special Analysis F (Federal Credit Programs) both contain information on the financial market implications of the budget. Most of the lending and financial transactions displayed in table B - l l are shown in Special Analysis F. However, this total differs from the total for direct loans shown in Special Analysis F because: (a) the NIA records nonrecourse agricultural commodity loans as purchases rather than loans; (b) capital contributions to international financial institutions are not loans, but are financial transactions excluded from the NIA; and (c) Special Analysis F includes 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 lending by off-budget Federal entities; these loans do not require reconciliation with the NIA because they are not included in the budget outlay totals. Government contribution for employee retirement.—The contributions of Government agencies to the retirement trust funds of their employees are not included in the budget totals. While the outlays are recorded in each agency's budget, they are offset by an intragovernmental deduction. However, the NIA counts Government payments for employee retirement as part of the compensation paid to Government employees and, therefore, as Government expenditures; this treatment maintains comparability with the treatment of employee retirement contributions in the rest of the economy. Contributions for employee retirement by Government enterprises such as the Postal Service are recorded as an increase in the current deficit of enterprises. Contributions by other accounts are recorded as purchases of goods and services. The receipt of these retirement contributions is treated in the NIA as contributions for social insurance. Since receipts and expenditures are increased by identical amounts, this treatment has no effect on the surplus or deficit. Around 80% of these payments go to the civil service retirement fund, while most of the remainder is for social security. Other netting and grossing.—The budget normally counts as receipts only income from taxation or similar sources that arises from the exercise of governmental power to compel payment. Money received in the course of business-type transactions, therefore, is normally shown as offsets against outlays. For instance, receipts from social insurance programs operated by the Veterans Administration (such as the National Service Life Insurance and U.S. Government Life Insurance) are netted against outlays in the budget since these programs are voluntary, commercial-type activities. However, in the NIA these insurance premiums are treated as social insurance receipts just as are receipts from compulsory Government programs. In previous budgets, noncompulsory insurance premiums under the supplementary medical insurance program (totaling $3.3 billion in 1981) and similar but much smaller noncompulsory hospital insurance premiums were classified as receipts in the budget. In the 1983 budget these have been reclassified (retroactively) , to be offsetting collections (negative outlays) but they continue to be classified as social insurance contributions in the NIA, therefore significantly increasing the magnitude of the grossing adjustment. Other netting and grossing includes some imputed contributions for social insurance for Federal employees for unemployment compensation (which adds an equal amount to nondefense purchases) SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 29 and workmen's compensation (which adds an equal amount to domestic transfer payments). One major element of netting and grossing in recent years has been due to budgetary collections arising from the Outer Continental Shelf leases. All such collections are recorded in the budget as negative outlays. The rents and royalties component—but not the bonuses—are recorded in the NIA as indirect business nontaxes; this converts the money from an offset to outlays in the budget to a receipt in the NIA. Timing adjustments.—The budget records receipts at the time the cash is collected regardless of when the income is earned, and outlays (except interest paid to the public) are generally recorded at the time the checks are issued. The NIA attempts to record most receipts from the business sector in the time period in which the income is earned rather than when taxes are actually paid, while personal income taxes and social insurance contributions are recorded at the time of payment by the individual taxpayer rather than when the liability is accrued or the cash is received by Treasury. The principal timing adjustment to expenditures is for defense purchases. The major defense timing adjustment normally involves procurement items (such as missiles and airplanes) purchased under most fixed-price contracts. These items are recorded in the Federal sector NIA as defense purchases at the time of delivery to the Federal Government, rather than when the payment is made (as the budget does) or when they are fabricated. Work in progress is counted as part of private business inventories until the goods are completed and delivered to the Government. An additional defense timing adjustment is made to convert foreign military sales, which are recorded on a cash basis in the unified budget, to a basis consistent with net exports in the NIA. In addition, some accounting adjustments are included with the defense timing adjustment in this translation. Since both the budget and the NIA record public debt interest to the public when it accrues, no timing adjustment is needed for most interest transactions. Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases.—In recent years bonuses paid on the Outer Continental Shelf oil leases have become a significant reconciliation item between the unified budget and the NIA. As already noted, the budget records these bonuses as proprietary receipts and, therefore, deducts them from budget outlays. The NIA excludes these transactions as being a transfer of assets, because the payments are not included in calculating book profits under current corporate accounting practice. 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Geographic exclusions.—Geographic exclusions arise because Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. territories are not included in the United States for purposes of computing the GNP and related data series (such as social insurance taxes, domestic transfer payments, and grants-in-aid) but also are not treated as foreign for purposes of producing data on exports, imports, and foreign transfer payments. Since the budget includes receipts from and payments to persons and local governments in these territories and the NIA excludes such transactions, this constitutes a major reconciliation item between the two data series. Other.—This category contains miscellaneous adjustments, such as the NIA expenditures by off-budget Federal entities and foreign currency transactions that are included in the NIA but not in the budget. Table B-12. FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS, 1972-83 (In billions of dollars) Actual RECEIPTS, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Personal taxes and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and and nontax accruals Contributions of social insurance Total receipts, national income basis EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures, income basis national Excess of receipts ( + ) or expenditures ( —), national income basis •$50 million or less. Estimate 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 100.5 34.2 107.4 41.2 122.7 43.4 127.5 41.8 137.2 52.5 166.4 58.8 186.4 67.2 223.1 75.8 249.7 70.6 290.7 69.6 303.5 58.7 307.7 78.1 19.9 58.9 20.7 71.5 21.4 84.2 22.2 91.9 24.4 101.0 24.5 116.2 27.2 133.4 29.1 152.7 35.7 171.3 56.6 196.1 57.4 221.4 57.5 242.4 213.4 240.7 271.6 283.4 314.9 365.9 414.2: 480.7 527.3 613.0 641.0 685.7 100.6 (72.2) (28.4) 79.0 (76.1) (2.8) 101.1 (72.8) (28.4) 89.8 (87.2) (2.7) 104.5 (73.6) (30.9) 104.8 (101.8) (3.0) 117.9 (80.2) (37.7) 134.5 (131.4) (3.1) 125.1 (84.4) (40.7) 156.8 (153.8) (3.0) 140.3 (91.9) (48.4) 169.8 (166.6) (3.2) 150.7 (98.0) (52.7) 182.2 (178.7) (3.5) 163.4 (107.4) (56.0) 201.8 (197.8) (4.0) 190.2 (126.1) (64.1) 239.3 (234.7) (4.6) 218.3 (147.1) (71.2) 279.7 (273.9) (5.8) 249.0 (174.1) (74.9) 312.1 (306.0) (6.1) 272.9 (203.2) (69.7) 330.8 (324.6) (6.2) 32.6 14.0 40.4 15.7 41.6 19.6 48.4 21.7 57.5 25.2 66.3 28.4 74.7 33.5 79.1 40.6 86.7 51.2 90.1 66.9 86.3 81.4 76.8 95.9 6.5 9.2 -.5 7.6 .2 6.0 .4 6.2 7.0 9.6 * 9.8 10.8 13.0 -.1 12.5 .1 11.2 232.7 255.7 278.2 328.8 370.7 411.7 450.5 494.7 578.2 667.9 741.4 787.6 -19.2 -14.9 -6.6 -45.4 -55.8 -45.8 -36.3 -14.0 -50.9 -54.9 -100.4 -101.9 Note.—-Excludes the transition quarter. * SPECIAL ANALYSIS C FUNDS IN THE BUDGET The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS C FUNDS IN THE BUDGET This analysis provides information on the two major fund groups, Federal and trust, that together after deducting interfund transactions, as shown in table C-l, comprise the budget totals. Table C - l . BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS, BY FUND GROUP (In millions of dollars) Description 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate RECEIPTS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Receipts, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietaiv receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Receipts, trust funds Interfund transactions Total budget receipts 441,350 -3,815 -18,283 -8,830 448,024 -4,689 -18,403 -12,115 483,425 -4,310 -30,006 -15,445 410,422 412,817 433,664 256,789 -1,631 -14,207 -1,537 295,081 -2,022 -16,162 -2,188 317,695 -472 -18,258 -2,315 239,413 274,710 296,650 -50,563 -60,774 -64,195 599,272 626,753 666,118 506,099 -3,815 -18,283 -8,830 559,142 -4,689 -18,403 -12,115 590,366 -4,310 -30,006 -15,445 475,171 523,936 540,604 249,972 -1,631 -14,207 -1,537 282,541 -2,022 -16,162 -2,188 302,274 -472 -18,258 -2,315 232,596 262,169 281,229 -50,563 -60,774 -64,195 657,204 725,331 757,638 -57,932 -98,578 -91,520 OUTLAYS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Outlays, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietaro receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Outlays, trust funds Interfund transactions Total budget outlays Budget deficit Note.—The 1983 Budget reflects the reclassification of the supplementary medical insurance and voluntary hospital insurance enrollee premiums. These premiums, formerly classified as budget receipts, are now classified as proprietary receipts. Accordingly, budget totals have been adjusted retroactively. The adjustment decreases budget receipts and outlays for each year since 1967 by the amount of the premiums collected for that year. 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 The Federal funds are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. Most of these funds are not restricted by law to any specific Government program. The trust funds, on the other hand, collect certain taxes and other receipts for specified purposes, such as payment of social security benefits, in accordance with the terms of a trust agreement or statute. Amounts collected by the funds are classified either as budget receipts, also called governmental receipts, or as offsets to budget outlays, known as offsetting collections, depending on the following criteria. Amounts collected by the Federal Government from the public that arise from the exercise of governmental or sovereign powers are treated as budget receipts. Gifts and contributions to the Government are also included in this category. In prior budgets, voluntary social insurance premiums of the Hospital and supplementary medical insurance trust funds were classified as budget receipts because of their close relationship with compulsory collections. However, since these collections are voluntary, this classification has been changed (retroactively) to record these as proprietary receipts from the public. Amounts collected from other Government accounts or from transactions with the public that are of a business-type or marketoriented nature, such as the sale of services or goods are treated as deductions from spending in arriving at budget outlays.1 FEDERAL FUNDS The Federal fund group is comprised of the general fund, special funds, public enterprise (revolving) funds, and intragovernmental funds. Intragovernmental funds include intragovernmental revolving funds, management funds, and consolidated working funds. Federal fund budget receipts and outlays.—In 1983, the Federal fund budget receipts are estimated at $ 4 3 3 . 7 billion and outlays are estimated at $ 5 4 0 . 6 billion. The following table, C - 2 , presents the distribution of budget receipts by source and outlays by agency for the Federal fund group. The Federal fund budget receipts shown in the table are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing. They are comprised of the amounts collected by the general and special funds that are governmental in nature. Proprietary receipts from the public of the general and special funds arise from market-oriented transactions and thus are offsetting receipts rather than budget receipts. 1 Additional information on budget receipts and offsetting collections is provided in Part 7 of the Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1983. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 5 The Federal fund outlays shown are net of all collections credited to the public enterprise and intragovernmental funds and the proprietary receipts of the general and special funds. Table C-2. FEDERAL FUND RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) Description 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate RECEIPTS BY SOURCE Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs duties Miscellaneous receipts Total receipts, Federal funds 285,917 61,137 34,128 6,787 8,023 14,431 298,578 46,752 35,283 7,162 8,810 16,232 304,533 65,269 31,066 5,948 9,360 17,487 410,422 412,817 433,644 1,207 637 96 6,548 26,069 11,469 156,098 3,127 61,279 14,033 7,005 2,752 13,081 1,999 12,029 92,920 5,2490 5,421 22,451 41,838 1,500 727 92 6,245 29,475 11,604 182,791 2,971 67,818 14,614 3,265 2,643 10,185 2,313 10,633 110,382 5,344 5,827 23,720 40,272 -624 1,448 822 99 6,687 23,533 9,853 215,889 2,197 66,405 13,130 3,379 2,727 7,356 2,584 7,933 124,814 4,500 6,577 23,936 36,991 -1,257 -10,138 -7,861 -18,000 -1,000 475,171 523,936 540,604 -64,749 -111,119 -106,940 OUTLAYS BY AGENCY Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President Agriculture Commerce1 Defense—Military2 3 Defense—Civil Health and Human Services3 Housing and Urban Development Interior 1 3 Justice 1 3 Labor State Transportation4 Treasury 5 Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies 13 Allowances5 Undistributed offsetting receipts: Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf Federal surplus property disposition Total outlays, Federal funds Excess of outlays ( — ) The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Energy (DOE), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DOE are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activities. 2 Includes allowances for civilian and military pay raises for the Department of Dofense. 3 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Education (DEd), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DEd are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these responsibilities. 4 Includes allowances for military pay raises for the Coast Guard. 5 Includes allowances for civilian agency pay raises and contingencies. 1 Obligations— The obligations (net) for Federal funds are estimated at $565.6 billion for 1983, as set forth in table C-3. These transactions flow largely from budget authority for Federal funds of $565.5 billion for the year, although some flow from prior years' budget authority. 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table C-3. OBLIGATIONS INCURRED, NET, IN FEDERAL FUNDS (In millions of dollars) Department or other unit Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Other Agriculture Commerce1 Defense—Military2 3 Defense—Civil Health and Human Services3 Housing and Urban Development Interior 1 3 Justice 1 3 Labor State Transportation4 Treasury 3 Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Federal Home Loan Bank Board Foundation for Education Assistance3 General Services Administration Office of Personnel Management U.S. Postal Service Railroad Retirement Board All other independent agencies 13 Allowances: Civilian agency pay raises Fraud, waste, and abuse Undistributed debt collections Undistributed offsetting receipts: Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf... Federal surplus property disposition Total 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1,239 648 102 1,541 736 90 1,476 833 102 2,545 2,432 3,880 27,294 11,439 174,852 3,128 61,411 37,671 6,849 2,400 12,402 2,131 12,663 92,899 5,226 5,673 22,601 3,224 2,728 508 28,449 13,772 206,118 3,075 64,962 12,798 2,972 2,520 9,488 2,492 11,144 110,449 4,582 6,412 23,904 4,583 2,902 431 22,821 9,401 248,196 2,344 61,620 13,461 3,064 2,651 7,563 2,551 7,486 124,721 3,437 6,622 24,419 5,780 446 13,767 391 14,454 1,343 342 9,789 2,635 199 11,547 281 15,499 619 379 7,588 1,892 30 9,218 -370 16,509 500 350 7,072 392 -1,000 757 -1,000 -1,000 -10,138 -7,861 -18,000 -1,000 525,660 542,243 565,643 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Energy (DOE), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previoulsy performed by DOE are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activites. 2 Includes allowances for civilian and military pay raises for the Department of Defense. 3 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Education (DEd), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DEd are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these responsibilities. 4 Includes allowance for military pay raises for the Coast Guard. 1 Balances of Federal fund budget authority.—Table C-4 shows the balances of budget authority carried forward in Federal funds at the end of each fiscal year. To the extent that valid Government obligations have been incurred and remain unpaid, amounts sufficient to pay them (obligated balances) may be carried over into the next year. Unobligated balances may be carried forward in accordance with specific provisions of law, usually in order to permit completion of major procurement or major construction programs SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 7 that are fully funded, to provide funding for activities of a continuing nature (such as research and development), for financing loan programs, for standby emergency purposes (such as backup financing for insurance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), or for reserves for losses and debt redemption. Public enterprise funds.—The public enterprise funds conduct a cycle of business-type operations, primarily with the public, on behalf of the Government. These funds are usually supplied with capital from the general fund, and in a few cases they may borrow from the public or from the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). These funds also obtain capital by selling financial assets to the FFB. Data on public enterprise funds are included net of collections in tables C - l through C-4. Additional information on the gross outlays and applicable collections are shown in table C-5. Collections of public enterprise funds are estimated at $54.0 billion in 1983, and gross outlays are planned to total $61.7 billion, resulting in net outlays of $7.7 billion. TRUST FUNDS There are two types of trust funds—revolving and nonrevolving. Trust revolving funds are similar to intragovernmental revolving funds and public enterprise funds in that they conduct a cycle of business-type operations and are normally stated net of collections. Cash operations.—Trust fund receipts are estimated at $296.6 billion in 1983, with outlays planned at $281.2 billion, as shown in tables C - l and C-6. The transactions of the Federal old-age and survivors insurance and disability insurance funds are far larger than any other trust fund. In fiscal years 1981-83, trust funds have excesses of receipts of the following amounts (in millions of dollars): 1981 actual Total receipts, trust funds Total outlays, trust funds. Excess of receipts or outlays ( — ) , trust funds 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 239,413 232,596 274,710 262,169 296,650 281,229 6,817 12,541 15,421 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table C-4. FEDERAL FUND BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY (In millions of dollars) Department or other unit Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds Appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Other Agriculture Commerce1 Defense—Military2 3 Defense—Civil Health and Human Services3 Housing and Urban Development Interior 1 3 Justice 1 3 Labor State Transportation4 Treasury 3 Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Federal Home Loan Bank Board Foundation for Education Assistance3 General Services Administration Office of Personnel Management Railroad Retirement Board All other independent agencies 13 Allowances5 Total End 1982 Start 1981 Obligated 203 58 Unobligated 241 18 16 Obligated 216 56 End 1984 End 1983 Unobligated 237 8 Obligated 256 65 Unobligated 116 2 Obligated 284 76 20 18 21 4,716 5,544 Unobligated 104 2 5,490 123 4,916 7,351 11,362 11,444 7,636 67,942 736 13,117 3,510 4,170 6,983 24,125 385 7,439 11,944 12,628 7,538 86,265 734 13,108 6,642 1,267 6,294 26,431 336 7,809 11,981 11,568 9,732 109,592 838 13,089 6,062 1,942 189 33,728 160 8,229 11,953 10,856 9,285 141,899 985 13,142 5,962 2,436 520 42,999 19 12,914 939 12,986 683 10,130 161 5,345 101 244,150 5,171 833 3,207 459 9,834 614 11,980 1,953 133 617 62 1,502 25,829 260,454 4,895 471 2,397 568 10,533 575 12,655 759 151 1,142 108 1,818 25,796 247,981 2,726 348 1,530 748 11,042 642 22,623 259 84 351 38 1,165 28,262 235,365 2,398 272 1,301 714 10,595 549 21,095 202 399 40 628 28,685 12,772 3,050 12,414 1,107 11,651 38 10,588 5 1,212 2,391 705 2,387 1,457 2,507 550 2,123 2,042 2,690 74 2,216 2,087 3,174 60 2,564 5,737 184 8,877 9,026 IT 8,336 3,000 73 9,686 149 9,240 309 9,041 490 9,011 9,616 2,402 10,253 1,466 8,436 1,152 6,253 699 474 428 633 766 656 590 815 600 59 11 29 5 82 5 86 5 * * * * * * * 5,497 21,364 5,236 2,977 4,509 16 2,598 4,586 30 2,918 427,252 138,902 466,187 115,668 471,140 123,945 482,112 132,275 *500 thousand or less. ^ h e budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Energy (DOE), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DOE are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activities. 2 Includes balances of allowances for civilian and military pay raises for the Department of Defense. 3 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Education (DEd), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DEd are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these responsibilities. 4 Includes balances of allowance for military pay raises for the Coast Guard. 5 Includes balances of allowances for civilian agency pay raises and contingencies. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 9 Table C-5. PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUND TRANSACTIONS (In millions of dollars) Gross outlays Applicable collections Description Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation Farmers Home Administration: Rural housing insurance fund Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural development insurance fund Federal Grain Inspection Service Federal Crop Insurance Corporation... Commerce1 Defense: Military 2 Health and Human Services2 Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association Urban renewal programs Low-rent public housing Federal Housing Administration Fund Other Interior: 1 2 Bureau of Reclamation Energy programs Other Transportation Treasury2 Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: Export-Import Bank Farm Credit Administration Federal Emergency Management Agency Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Revolving fund National Consumer Cooperative Bank National Credit Union Administration Pennsylvania Avenue Development Corporation Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority All other not included above 1 2 Total Offsetting collections from the public Offsetting collections from other accounts 1982 estimate 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 170 198 215 218 248 255 10,322 10,130 9,278 14,384 16,614 11,128 8,051 7,992 6,202 7,921 9,084 7,819 11,642 11,420 9,714 11,414 11,825 10,412 2,032 26 408 96 2 51 1,960 43 320 122 4 85 1,698 43 262 452 5 55 2,336 34 367 130 6 109 2,472 44 414 197 6 99 2,397 43 345 363 8 83 1,980 71 2,119 2,135 42 1,551 2,060 20 1,009 3,164 215 2,197 3,145 142 1,557 3,175 90 1,114 1,593 313 1,855 450 2,953 1,004 1,775 1,216 1,610 1,182 1,774 1,276 341 897 23 143 1,136 755 374 1,935 27 183 551 1,085 450 2,496 30 116 592 2,133 304 874 23 246 352 889 374 1,877 35 220 217 998 450 2,756 39 134 206 1,349 2,667 14 3,289 16 3,774 18 4,733 14 5,144 16 5,692 18 244 294 317 337 441 437 1,027 59 937 65 1,122 68 1,401 56 972 69 972 68 19 131 67 213 421 578 203 514 683 7 1,289 3,843 129 3 1,556 4,567 446 3 1,675 5,113 508 23 2,973 5,771 99 18 1,840 6,747 106 8 1,509 6,803 253 51,682 54,056 53,963 63,915 68,294 61,659 (32,645) (37,161) (43,108) (19,037) (16,895) (10,855) *$500 thousand or less. 1 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Energy (DOE), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DOE are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activities. 2 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Education (DEd), effective October 1, 1982. Budget data for activities previously performed by DEd are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activities. 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table C-6. OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS OF TRUST FUNDS (In millions of dollars) Outlays Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Federal employees retirement funds Unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Foreign military sales trust fund Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Total 1981 actual Receipts 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 139,585 5,294 680 1,035 17,864 18,739 42,489 9,174 1,306 156,644 5,328 854 1,042 19,600 25,400 49,552 8,340 1,600 173,536 5,137 9,912 998 -2,241 4,570 10,951 1,090 -2,429 249,972 -1,631 -14,207 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 134,564 4,675 792 1,138 28,573 18,104 45,302 7,434 582 152,129 5,121 742 1,194 33,293 21,300 55,863 7,661 724 165,285 4,567 12,446 1,424 -2,780 4,570 9,454 1,601 4,567 10,827 1,661 4,567 12,197 1,920 282,541 -2,022 -16,162 302,274 -472 -18,258 256,789 -1,631 -14,207 295,081 -2,022 -16,162 317,695 -472 -18,258 -1,537 -2,188 -2,315 -1,537 -2,188 -2,315 232,596 262,169 281,229 239,413 274,710 296,650 674 1,051 21,262 23,694 55,352 8,237 2,810 1981 actual 674 1,286 34,728 23,400 62,672 7,893 3,073 Budget receipts by trust fund.—Table C-7 presents information classifying the trust fund receipts by major fund, and by source for each such fund. Budget outlays by trust fund.—Corresponding information on trust fund outlays, classifying the data for the larger funds, is found in table C-8. Balances of the trust funds.—Total balances of the trust funds continue to increase, as shown in the following end-of-year figures (in millions of dollars): 1980 actual Open book balances Investments in U.S. securities: Public debt Agency debt Total 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 11,966 9,422 9,746 9,752 179,376 1,015 188,737 1,015 197,591 765 213,004 765 192,358 199,174 208,103 223,521 A summary of the balances by fund is presented in table C-9. The amounts include both amounts on deposit with the Treasury (open-book balances) and investments in U.S. securities. These bal- 11 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A ances include both obligated and unobligated balances. The balances on a budget authority basis differ from the cash balances because, for a few accounts, contract authority (a form of budget authority) has been provided to a trust fund in advance of receiving moneys while unappropriated receipts are included in the cash balances but are not a part of the balances of budget authority. The note to Table C-9 lists these accounts and reconciles the balances on a budget authority basis with the cash balances. For 1983, the largest net investments are expected to be those of the Federal employees retirement fund. Trust revolving funds.—The activities of the trust revolving fund subgroup are shown in table C-10. The largest of these funds are those used by the Office of Personnel Management to buy insurance for Government employees. Table C-7. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Receipts from other trust funds Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation Subtotal, railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund: Excise taxes Advances from general fund Other receipts Subtotal, black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds: Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal, veterans life insurance trust funds.... Federal employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 130,176 2,286 147,664 1,976 159,444 1,458 1,430 1,645 1,771 672 844 1,308 1,304 134,564 152,129 165,285 2,457 275 1,614 2,982 158 2,001 3,178 122 2,218 328 -20 -25 -5,493 4,675 5,121 237 555* 507 235 612 62 792 742 674 673 465 717 476 816 470 1,138 1,194 1,286 3,978 6,086 4,486 8,599 4,504 9,208 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table C-7. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal payment as employer for employee retirement (including payment on prior year liabilities): Entities included in budget Entities excluded from budget Other receipts Proposed legislation Supplemental now requested 1981 actual 1982 estimate 16,965 1,537 8 1983 estimate 17,708 2,188 3 18,828 2,192 3 -8 309 28,573 33,293 34,728 Unemployment trust fund: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Advances from the general fund Supplemental now requested 15,763 1,063 1,277 16,461 686 2,206 1,947 18,469 188 4,743 Subtotal, unemployment trust fund 18,104 21,300 23,400 30,340 3,340 1,681 34,881 3,862 2,331 38,033 4,418 3,001 332 397 427 9,609 14,375 17 15,632 1,161 45,302 55,863 62,672 6,305 1,127 2 6,582 1,079 6,957 936 7,434 7,661 7,893 440 284 254 2,819 582 724 3,073 State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Deposits for general revenue sharing 4,570 4,567 4,567 Foreign military sales trust fund 9,454 10,827 12,197 Other trust funds (nonrevolving) 1,601 1,661 1,920 256,789 -1,631 -14,207 -1,537 295,081 -2,022 -16,162 -2,188 317,695 -472 -18,258 -2,315 239,413 274,710 296,650 Subtotal Federal employees retirement funds... Health insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Premiums and other charges Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation Subtotal, health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal, highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities Proposed legislation Subtotal, airport and airway trust fund Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Total receipts *$500 thousand or less. 21 561 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 13 Table C-8. TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Payments to other trust funds Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 136,267 1,614 1,703 152,580 2,001 2,064 167,264 2,686 2,196 1,390 139,585 156,644 173,536 5,255 39 5,282 46 5,678 44 -5,722 5,294 5,328 644 36 549 36 270 463 35 176 680 854 674 1,035 1,042 1,051 17,401 433 30 19,095 495 34 -24 21,287 429 35 -489 17,864 19,600 21,262 16,006 600 2,133 21,284 21,038 500 2,162 -6 18,739 25,400 23,694 41,254 1,235 48,535 1,265 -248 55,854 1,245 -1,747 Subtotal, health insurance trust funds 42,489 49,552 55,352 Highway trust funds (mainly grants to States): Current Proposed legislation 9,174 8,340 8,233 4 9,174 8,340 8,237 1,306 1,592 2,637 166 Subtotal, Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account: Benefit payments and claims Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal, railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund: Benefit payments Federal administrative expenses Interest on advances Subtotal, black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Federal employees retirement: Benefit payments and claims Refunds to former employees Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal, Federal employees retirement Unemployment trust fund: Withdrawals for benefit payments Repayment of advances from general fund Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Supplemental now requested Subtotal, unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal, highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund: Current Proposed legislation 2,036 2,080 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table C-8. TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] 1981 actual Description 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Supplemental now requested 8 7 1,306 1,600 2,810 State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Payments for general revenue sharing 5,137 4,570 4,567 Foreign military sales trust fund 9,912j 10,951 12,446 998 -2,241 1,090 -2,429 1,424 -2,780 249,972 282,541 302,274 -1,631 -14,207 -1,537 -2,022 -16,162 -2,188 -472 -18,258 -2,315 232,596 262,169 281,229 Subtotal, airport and airway trust funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal entities Total outlays Table C-9. TRUST FUND BALANCES (In millions of dollars) Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Railroad retirement account Black lung disability trust fund Veterans life insurance funds Federal employees retirement funds Unemployment trust fund Health insurance trust funds Highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Foreign military sales trust fund Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Total As of Sept. 30 1980 actual 1981 actual 32,259 2,719* 1982 estimate 8,509 74,317 14,886 19,029 10,999 5,442 8,764 98,719 10,282 28,528 8,581 3,843 1,822 5,204 1,703 15,468 1,255 4,746 2,305 17,708 1,252 4,622 2,870 20,137 192,358 199,174 208,103 *$500 thousand or less. Note—The following table reconciles balances on a biidget authority basis with the cash balances shown above. 1980 1981 Balance available on an authorization basis 220,989 208,325 Unfinanced contract authority: Airport and airway trust fund -914 -760 Highway trust funds -18,348 -18,487 Foreign military sales trust fund -12,087 -15,653 - 1 - 1 Other Unappropriated receipts: Available as needed, on an indefinite basis 5 -49 Available for appropriation by Congress: 98 Soldiers' Home permanent fund 96 3,774 Airport and airway trust fund 4,716 9,034 10,610 Highway trust funds 78 Hazardous substance response trust fund 92 3 Other .: 6 6 Retained as permanent endowment Balance available on a cash basis 20,505 27,239 1,986 112 8,612 85,026 14,365 21,842 9,259 4,719 192,358 199,174 1982 235,760 1983 255,119 -739 -18,685 -20,099 -955 -18,260 -23,721 3 3 114 2,894 8,439 216 194 6 129 2,859 7,743 352 246 6 208,103 223,521 15 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table 0-10. TRUST REVOLVING FUND TRANSACTIONS (In millions of dollars) Gross outlays Offsetting collections Description 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Office of Personnel Management (employees' life insurance and health benefits) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation All other trust revolving funds 5,312 1,807 525 6,813 1,988 564 8,376 2,204 594 4,850 81 472 6,234 188 513 7,643 204 547 Total trust revolving funds 7,644 9,365 11,174 5,404 6,936 8,394 (3,287) (4,357) (4,096) (5,269) (4,776) (6,397) Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts 1 1 Excludes right-of-way revolving fund which is a part of the highway trust funds. SPECIAL ANALYSIS D INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—AM years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS D INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS This analysis divides outlays between those of an "investment" or capital nature, and those devoted to "current" or operating purposes. Investment-type programs yield benefits in future years through the acquisition of physical or financial assets, or through expenditures for less tangible long-term benefits such as education. They include: the construction, rehabilitation, and acquisition of physical assets; education, training, and vocational rehabilitation; research and development; international development; and financial investments such as loans. Outlays for investment-type programs are estimated to be $155.3 billion in 1983. Current programs provide benefits primarily in the year in which the outlays that finance them are made. They include: payments for retirement, disability, and other income maintenance; social services; payments (including subsidies) to agriculture, businesses, transportation systems, and other institutions that are not directly used by the institutions to purchase physical assets; payments for the repair, maintenance, and operation of existing physical assets; and regulatory, law enforcement, interest, and other operating costs of the Federal Government. Outlays for current programs are estimated to be $631.6 billion in 1983. Outlays or offsetting receipts that cannot be identified as either investment or current in nature are presented as unclassified. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (In billions of dollars) 1981 actual Investment-type programs Current programs Unclassified Total 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 146.0 530.8 -19.6 148.0 597.0 — 19.6 155.3 631.6 — 29.3 657.2 725.3 757.6 The Federal Government has never had a capital budget in the sense of financing capital or investment-type programs separately from current expenditures. While the application of accounting concepts for capital budgeting is difficult for private sector entities, 3 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 it is much more so for the public sector. For example, the Federal Government holds vast amounts of land and controls off-shore areas; both have potential value as sources of either timber, oil, or minerals. These assets do not have a known or easily estimated market value. Defense procurement poses similar problems in using capital accounting. A capital budget would pose formidable accounting problems in the measurement of depreciation on Government property, especially weapons. Moreover, there would be severe problems in the use of a capital budget. It would be misleading as a measure of the Government's effect on the demand for economic resources. The deficit of a capital budget could not be used as an indication of the demands that Federal borrowing requirements place on the credit market. It might also suggest that programs with intensive expenditures for physical assets, such as construction, are better than those for which future benefits cannot be accurately capitalized, such as education or defense research and development. Likewise, physical assets might be favored relative to current operations in any given program because deficit financing for capital purposes could be easier to justify. There are inevitable classification difficulties in preparing the kind of analysis presented here. In the case of a few programs— such as general revenue sharing—the recipients are free to utilize the funds for either investment-type or current purposes. In such cases, this analysis classifies the outlays in the category where most of the outlays are expected to occur. Some programs could logically be put in more than one subcategory within these broader categories. For example, grants for construction of education facilities not only finance the acquisition of physical assets but also are an important element in the conduct of education and training. In cases such as this, the outlays are classified in the subcategory that is most "capital-like" and therefore appears first in the special analysis structure (the order goes from loans to construction and rehabilitation, acquisition of major equipment, conduct of research and development, etc.). The classification structure used in compiling information for this analysis is designed primarily to distinguish investment-type outlays from current outlays. It does not provide a ready source of information on total outlays or other forms of assistance affecting particular sectors of the economy. For example, the category "aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation" reflects current benefits, such as subsidies for operating expenses of air, water, and rail transportation activity. It does not include related subsidies for the construction of private merchant ships, which are investmenttype outlays included under "acquisition of major equipment", nor does it include assistance provided by the Federal Government through loan guarantees, tax expenditures, or other methods. Al SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 5 though not measured in this analysis, guaranteed loans, tax expenditures, and other provisions of the tax code are methods by which the Federal Government can affect the type and amount of public and private investment. For example, federally guaranteed loans are substitutes for outlays or direct loans and can result in the creation of certain assets in place of others.1 The four tables presented in this analysis divide outlays between investment-type and current uses according to the classification categories described below. Table D - l divides outlays between national defense and civil programs. Table D-2 separates outlays by grants-in-aid,2 loans, and other direct Federal programs. This table does not distinguish between defense and civil outlays. Tables D-3 and D-4 correspond to tables D-l and D-2, respectively, and give further detail. Most of the off-budget outlays (shown as addendum items) are for loans and are, therefore, for investment-type activity.3 The remainder of the text discusses in greater detail the components and rationale for classifying the various types of budget outlays. For each type of outlay classified in the investment category the manner is shown whereby that type yields benefits in the future, in the form of either physical or financial assets or other less tangible benefits. The remaining outlays (except for the allowances) are classified by definition as current. Investment-type programs.—Total investment-type outlays are estimated to increase from $148.0 billion in 1982 to $155.3 billion in 1983. About $2.9 billion in 1983 outlays are for loans and financial investments, $90.2 billion are for the acquisition, construction, or rehabilitation of physical assets, and $62.2 billion are for the conduct of education, training, research and development, and other investment-type programs. Defense investment-type outlays are primarily for the acquisition of major equipment and other physical assets, and for research and development. Civil programs, which account for 40% of total investment-type outlays, are primarily for construction and rehabilitation of physical assets and the conduct of education, research, and development. Loans and financial investments.—A loan creates a financial asset; if made at competitive market rates, the value of the asset equals to the outlay. For domestic loans, the Government's asset is matched by the liability of the private sector. Most Federal domestic loans finance the acquisition or improvement of either physical 1 Additional information on guaranteed loan programs and tax expenditures can be found in separate publications entitled Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs" and Special Analysis G, "Tax Expenditures", respectively. 2 Grants-in-aid are resources provided by the Federal Government in support of State and local programs of governmental service to the public. A separate publication, Special Analysis H, "Federal Aid to State and Local Governments," discusses grants-in-aid in greater detail. 3 See Part 6 of the Budget for a discussion of off-budget Federal entities. 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table D - l . SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual National defense: Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of major equipment and other physical assets Conduct of research and development Other investment-type programs 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 2,833 3,561 4,501 36,867 16,946 187 43,224 20,384 113 57,150 24,453 293 56,832 67,282 86,397 13,784 15,084 16,562 53,585 35,563 62,525 42,606 67,370 50,738 Subtotal, current programs 102,933 120,215 134,671 Total, national defense 159,765 187,497 221,068 Civil: Investment-type programs: Loans and financial investments Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of physical assets Conduct of research and development Conduct of education and training Other investment-type programs 5,678 28,944 7,495 17,231 26,124 3,650 5,433 28,510 3,561 17,470 22,419 3,301 2,931 25,747 2,788 16,846 17,298 3,280 Subtotal, investment-type programs 89,122 80,695 68,890 309,239 9,174 345,882 8,440 360,356 6,710 17,357 16,972 13,297 -711 7,092 7,823 68,556 9,372 -1,532 6,733 7,493 83,015 9,738 -2,967 7,015 7,138 96,414 8,979 427,903 476,740 496,942 -19,585 -19,602 -29,262 Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Other current programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Repair, maintenance, and operation of'physical assets General purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest Other current programs Subtotal, current programs Unclassified Total, civil 497,439 537,833 536,570 Grand total 657,204 725,331 757,638 20,999 2 16,419 2,848 12,295 2,801 3 422 606 21,005 19,689 15,701 Addendum: Off-budget Federal entities (civil): Loans Other investment-type outlays Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Total, off-budget Federal entities 7 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table D-2. SUMMARY OF BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS (In millions of dollars) 1982 estimate 1981 actual Grants-in-aid: Investment-type programs: Construction, rehabilitation, and acquisition of physical assets Conduct of education and training Other investment-type programs 1983 estimate 22,219 14,445 354 21,659 10,919 276 19,468 7,477 217 37,018 32,853 27,163 39,421 8,059 41,355 7,425 39,211 5,966 1,458 7,133 684 990 1,225 6,777 583 1,002 904 7,074 441 660 Subtotal, current programs 57,744 58,367 54,255 Total, grants-in-aid 94,762 91,220 81,418 4,078 4,127 1,592 9,954 37,325 10,829 43,122 11,140 57,095. 6,640 33,926 11,688 5,325 3,247 37,635 11,508 4,656, 2,482 41,106 9,892 4,817 Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation General purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement Other current programs Loans Direct Federal programs: Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation Acquisition of major equipment Acquisition of commodity inventories and other physical assets Conduct of research and development Conduct of education and training Other investment-type programs Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits Social services and related programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest Other current programs Subtotal, current programs Total, direct Federal programs Unclassified Grand total Addendum: (Direct Federal programs) Off-budget Federal entities: Loans Other investment-type programs Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation Total, off-budget Federal entities 104,858 110,998 126,532 283,602 1,115 319,611 1,014 337,707 744 15,900 15,747 12,393 52,354 7,139 68,556 44,424 60,345 6,909 83,015 51,947 64,000 6,698 96,414 59,403 473,091 538,588 577,358 577,949 649,586 703,890 -19,585 -19,602 -29,262 657,204 725,331 757,638 20,999 2 16,419 2,848 12,295 2,801 3 422 606 21,005 19,689 15,701 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 assets or human capital. This is especially true for loans in the commerce and housing credit, education, and transportation functions. Loans to foreign borrowers are an increase in financial assets held by the United States. Most foreign loans are for economic development programs or the promotion of U.S. exports, including military equipment and farm commodities. Net loan outlays are estimated to total $1.6 billion in 1983. This figure is less than the volume of new loans made in a given year because outlays for new loans are offset by loan repayments, or by sales of loans (so-called "loan asset sales") to the private sector or to the Federal Financing Bank. Budget outlays for financial investments are estimated to be $1.3 billion in 1983 and almost entirely go to international organizations. Off-budget loans are estimated to be $12.3 billion in 1983. Federal direct and guaranteed loan programs are discussed in greater detail in Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs." Physical assets.—The benefits provided by the construction and rehabilitation of physical assets, the acquisition of major equipment, and the establishment of commodity inventories are of a long-term nature. Budget outlays designed specifically to purchase such assets are treated as investment-type outlays regardless of whether the asset is owned by the Federal Government, or by State, local, or private entities. Total outlays for physical assets are estimated at $90.2 billion in 1983; of this amount $61.6 billion is for national defense. Most national defense outlays for physical assets are for the procurement of military equipment. A large portion of Federal outlays for nondefense physical assets is in the form of grants-in-aid to State and local governments, especially for construction programs such as highways, mass transit, and pollution control facilities. Outlays for the purchase of commodity inventories in 1982 and 1983 are lower than in 1981 by approximately $2.8 billion. This decrease is caused by legislation which shifted the purchases of oil for the strategic petroleum reserve to off-budget status. Off-budget investment-type outlays reflect a corresponding increase. Conduct of research and development.—Outlays for research and development increase our base of knowledge and apply that knowledge for its future benefit to the Nation. Total outlays for the conduct of research and development are estimated at $41.3 billion in 1983. Outlays for defense research and development are estimated to increase by approximately 20% over 1982 and are more than one-half of research and development outlays. Outlays for nondefense research and development are estimated to decrease by approximately 4%. Outlays for health, energy, and space technology research and development account for approximately one-half of nondefense research and development outlays in 1983. Additional information about Federal research and development programs is contained in Special Analysis K, "Research and Development." SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 9 Conduct of education and training.—Outlays classified in this category are designed to add to the stock of human capital by developing a more skilled and productive labor force. These outlays are largely for direct payments to individuals, such as scholarships, and grants to institutions and State and local governments. As with physical assets, the benefits accrue over a considerable period of time. Outlays are estimated at $17.4 billion in 1983, of which $7.5 billion are in the form of grants to State and local governments. Collection of information.—This category includes outlays for collection of information, censuses, topographic or other natural resource surveys, and programs that benefit both the present and future by establishing a base of knowledge. Outlays are estimated at $1.3 billion and $1.2 billion in 1982 and 1983, respectively. International development.—Foreign assistance for general international economic development is included in this category. These outlays, which are expected to benefit U.S. interests by enhancing the economic development of friendly foreign nations, are estimated to be $2.3 billion in 1983. Current programs.—Programs that provide benefits in the current year are divided into several subcategories briefly discussed below. Outlays classified as current may in part be used by their recipients for investment-type purposes. However, the principal effect of these outlays is to provide short-term benefits—such as unemployment compensation, and retirement and disability payments—rather than providing the means for future benefits. Total outlays for current programs are estimated to increase from $597.0 billion in 1982 to $631.6 billion in 1983 and are more than threequarters of 1983 estimated budget outlays. About $134.7 billion of current outlays in 1983 are for defense programs and $496.9 billion for civil programs. Outlays for "provision of benefits" is the largest category in the budget. Total outlays are estimated to increase from $361.0 billion in 1982 to $376.9 billion in 1983. Social security and other disability and retirement benefits are estimated to be $222.1 billion of the total in 1983. The decrease in 1983 railroad retirement and disability benefits is due to the administration's proposal to restore the responsibility for railroad employee's pension benefits to the private sector. Other major outlays in this category are for medicaid, medicare, unemployment, and food and nutrition programs. Current outlays for "social services and related programs" fund human development and child welfare services, and employment programs. Outlays in 1983 are estimated to be $6.7 billion, of which $6.0 billion are in the form of grants to State and local governments. 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 "Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation" are primarily for direct Federal activities, including price support, small business and transportation programs. Outlays for these programs are estimated to decrease from $17.4 billion in 1981 to $17.0 billion in 1982 and $13.3 billion in 1983. Outlays in 1981 include a one-time payment of $2.1 billion to the Penn Central Corporation for properties transferred to Conrail in 1976. Other current outlays are largely for operation of the Federal Government, including: the repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets (primarily defense related); regulatory and law enforcement activities; net interest; and other administrative or operating expenses. Because proprietary receipts from the public—such as receipts from the sale of power and other utilities, the sale of publications and reproductions, and the sale of timber and other natural land products—are offsets against the outlays to which they most nearly apply, net outlays for the operation of the Federal Government are negative in some cases. Unclassified.—The unclassified category has been redefined to encompass activity not previously included. It now includes the undistributed offsetting receipts (except interest) and the allowances for unallocated budget savings. In addition, most payments from the government to itself and the associated offsetting collections have been moved to this category. This has been done to reduce the confusion involved in deriving the true program level in the categories discussed above. Outlays for this category in 1982 and 1983 are estimated to be —$19.6 billion and —$29.3 billion, respectively. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 11 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (In millions of dollars) 1982 estimate 1981 actual 1983 estimate National defense investment-type programs Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Military construction Family housing Atomic energy defense activities 2,295 102 437 2,650 185 725 3,768 3 729 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets 2,833 3,561 4,501 35,191 1,220 41,325 1,439 55,144 1,761 36,411 42,764 56,904 455 460 246 16,946 20,384 24,453 187 113 293 56,832 67,282 86,397 National defense current programs Provision of benefits: Retired military personnel Other 13,729 55 15,000 85 16,471 91 Subtotal, provision of benefits 13,784 15,084 16,562 Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: Department of Defense, Military Other 53,379 206 62,282 243 67,106 264 53,585 62,525 67,370 35,831 -267 37,610 5,081 -85 43,856 4,285 2,598 35,563 42,606 50,738 Subtotal, current programs 102,933 120,215 134,671 Total, national defense 159,765 187,497 221,068 2,904 -1,808 292 385 169 1,100 141 404 501 2,583 948 -149 107 137 -144 46 536 72 3,289 Acquisition of major equipment: Procurement Atomic energy defense activities and other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment Other physical assets Conduct of research and development Other investment-type programs Subtotal, investment-type programs Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets Other current programs: Military personnel Allowance for civilian and military pay raises Other national defense Subtotal, other current programs Civil investment-type programs Loans: International affairs Agriculture Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Aids to commerce Transportation Disaster relief Other community and regional development Education Other -1,216 -75 114 -414 83 .639 -819 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 4,088 4,137 1,602 1,330 260 1,139 157 1,293 36 Subtotal, other financial investments 1,589 1,297 1,329 Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Highways Mass transportation Air transportation Other transportation Community development block grants Other community and regional development Pollution control and abatement Water resources Other natural resources and environment Energy Veterans hospitals and other health facilities Other 8,842 2,593 776 131 4,042 1,751 3,883 2,336 1,326 2,279 567 417 8,015 2,726 809 132 4,005 1,718 4,054 2,284 1,374 2,228 635 530 8,100 2,410 748 121 3,350 1,351 3,354 2,192 1,137 1,872 654 456 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets 28,944 28,510 25,747 367 573 438 -59 286 -79 940 379 207 3,352 990 491 423 29 565 4,342 943 565 2,213 2,240 2,016 17,231 17,470 16,846 Conduct of education and training: Foundation for Education Assistance: Higher education Elementary, secondary, and vocational educationOther 6,253 6,008 277 6,227 6,164 306 5,524 4,772 302 Subtotal, Foundation for Education Assistance.. 12,538 12,693 10,597 2,304 7,755 1,123 2,404 1,959 4,343 986 2,437 1,647 2,248 908 1,898 26,124 22,419 17,298 248 1,218 158 1,099 153 1,017 Subtotal, loans Other financial investments: International development Other Acquisition of major equipment: Transportation Other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment Commodity inventories: Energy Agriculture Other Subtotal, commodity inventories Other physical assets Conduct of research and development Veterans readjustment benefits Training and employment programs Health training Other education and training Subtotal, conduct of education and training Collection of information: Census Bureau Other SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 13 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1981 actual 1,466 1,257 1,170 2,184 2,044 2,110 89,122 80,695 68,890 Civil current programs Provision of benefits: Retirement, survivor, and disability benefits: Social Security: Retirement and survivor benefits Disability benefits 119,413 16,853 134,918 17,662 150,238 18,415 Subtotal, Social Security 136,267 152,580 168,654 Civil Service: Retirement and survivor benefits Disability benefits 14,046 3,158 15,412 3,438 16,838 3,718 17,204 18,850 20,556 Railroad retirement and disability benefits 5,294 5,328 Veterans disability benefits 8,670 9,675 10,351 Other retirement and disability benefits 1,336 1,988 1,941 168,771 188,420 201,502 3,755 41,242 16,833 1,032 18,392 7,548 15,706 6,452 7,203 6,123 3,940 48,296 17,823 1,236 23,689 9,520 15,015 7,073 6,671 6,725 4,014 54,127 17,006 1,691 21,159 10,089 13,317 8,028 5,412 4,653 124,285 139,988 139,495 Direct provision of services: Hospital and medical care for veterans Other health services Other 5,947 1,092 280 6,547 972 313 6,925 915 861 Subtotal, direct provision of services 7,319 7,831 8,702 Administrative expenses: Social Security retirement and disability Medicare Unemployment compensation and other 1,689 1,247 5,929 1,899 1,255 6,489 2,161 1,225 7,272 8,865 9,643 10,657 309,239 345,882 360,356 Subtotal, collection of information International development Subtotal, investment-type programs Subtotal, Civil Service Subtotal, retirement, survivor, and disability benefits Other provisions of benefits: Veterans pension benefits „ Medicare Medicaid Other health benefits Unemployment compensation Housing programs Food and nutrition programs Supplemental security income Assistance payments program Other Subtotal, other provisions of benefits Subtotal, administrative expenses Subtotal, provision of benefits 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Social services and related programs: Human development services Employment programs Social services and child welfare services Other 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 2,350 508 1,974 1,878 Subtotal, social services and related programs 9,174 8,440 6,710 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Agriculture Postal Service Small business assistance Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Ground transportation Air transportation Water transportation and waterways Other 4,650 1,343 492 1,111 4,705 2,270 1,584 1,202 5,551 619 540 1,538 3,211 2,137 1,750 1,624 2,714 500 595 1,785 1,881 2,411 1,558 1,854 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation 17,357 16,972 13,297 Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: Natural resources: Water resources Conservation and land management Recreation resources and other Offsetting receipts 823 433 668 -1,458 782 422 783 -2,232 574 357 885 -3,219 467 -246 -1,403 -1,295 -1,609 -1,684 -315 -349 -372 Subtotal, natural resources Energy (net of naval petroleum reserve and other receipts) Indian tribal receipts Other 433 Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets General purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Other general purpose grants-in-aid Shared revenues Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement: Regulatory and inspection activities: Natural resources and environment Transportation Health Energy Agriculture Savings institutions Tax collections Other CO 2,247 1,085 2,912 2,197 cn 2,793 1,476 2,571 2,334 492 -711 -1,532 -2,967 5,137 725 1,230 4,570 759 1,404 4,567 759 1,689 7,092 6,733 7,015 1,098 860 701 631 330 -1,738 568 832 1,010 868 682 638 308 -1,830 619 832 914 907 689 544 256 -2,015 765 632 15 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1981 actual 3,283 3,127 2,693 Law enforcement activities: Federal law enforcement Federal litigative and judicial activities Federal correctional activities Other law enforcement assistance 2,366 1,479 343 353 2,443 1,377 351 196 2,595 1,406 374 71 Subtotal, law enforcement activities 4,540 4,366 4,445 Subtotal, regulation, control, and law enforcement 7,823 7,493 7,138 95,333 -12,967 -13,810 115,700 -16,605 -16,080 132,900 -20,364 -16,122 68,556 83,015 96,414 1,176 1,058 2,946 1,047 1,829 1,235 3,163 807 2,107 1,262 3,079 615 6,228 7,034 7,063 2,880 265 3,081 376 -753 2,619 743 -1,446 3,144 2,704 1,916 Subtotal, current programs 427,903 476,740 496,942 Unclassified: Fraud waste and abuse Employer share, employee retirement Offshore oil receipts Non-compulsory medicare premiums Other unclassified -6,371 -10,138 -12,921 9,845 -1,000 -7,560 -7,861 -18,194 15,013 -1,000 -8,353 -18,000 -19,806 17,897 -19,585 -19,602 -29,262 Total, civil 497,439 537,833 536,570 Grand total 657,204 725,331 757,638 20,999 16,419 2,834 13 12,295 2,775 27 Subtotal, regulatory and inspection activities... Net interest: Interest on the public debt Other interest Interest received by trust funds Subtotal, net interest General Administration: International affairs Legislative branch Other general government Other Subtotal, general administration Other current programs: International security assistance Allowances for civilian agency pay raises Other Subtotal, other current programs Subtotal, unclassified Addendum: Off-budget Federal entities (civil): Investment-type programs: Loans (see Table D - 4 ) Strategic petroleum reserve Other investment-type programs 2 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1982 16 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Subtotal, investment-type programs 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 21,001 19,267 15,096 Current: Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Postal Service Railways Other 86 -47 -36 540 12 -130 687 9 -90 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce and transportation 3 422 606 Subtotal, current programs 3 422 606 21,005 19,689 15,701 Total, off-budget Federal entities *$500 thousand or less. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 17 Table D-4. BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS (In millions of dollars) 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1981 actual Grants-in-aid Investment-type programs: Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: Highways Mass transportation Other transportation Pollution control and abatement Other natural resources and environment Community development block grants Other community and regional development Other construction 8,835 2,593 469 3,881 277 4,042 1,531 194 8,000 2,726 475 4,050 305 4,005 1,433 248 8,099 2,410 374 3,350 196 3,350 1,153 176 21,823 21,242 19,107 Acquisition of equipment and other physical assets... 396 417 361 Conduct of research and development 251 220 193 6,778 5,877 1,790 3,322 6,031 1,566 1,531 4,694 1,253 14,445 10,919 7,477 103 57 24 37,018 32,853 27,163 16,833 4,581 7,203 4,015 3,509 17,823 4,103 6,671 4,754 4,268 17,006 3,961 5,412 4,884 3,652 3,281 3,737 4,296 39,421 41,355 39,211 1,201 2,707 2,571 1,579 832 2,168 2,912 1,514 470 2,270 1,974 1,252 Subtotal, social services and related programs 8,059 7,425 5,966 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Transportation Other 1,453 4 1,220 5 902 2 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation 1,458 1,225 904 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets Conduct of education and training: Employment and training assistance Elementary and secondary education Other Subtotal, conduct of education and training Collection of information Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits: Medicaid Nutrition and food programs Assistance payments Housing payments and subsidies Other Administrative expenses: Unemployment compensation and other Subtotal, provision of benefits Social services and related programs: Employment programs Human development services Social services and child welfare services Other 18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1982 Table D - 4 . BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 520 648 403 5,137 1,230 766 4,570 1,404 803 4,567 1,689 818 7,133 6,777 7,074 257 427 196 388 76 365 684 583 441 470 354 256 Subtotal, current programs 57,744 58,367 54,255 Total, grants-in-aid 94,762 91,220 81,418 2,904 100 -1,808 292 378 169 1,101 404 217 321 2,583 97 948 -149 99 137 -144 536 -41 -60 3,289 119 -1,216 -83 114 -414 639 -1,025 168 4,078 4,127 1,592 General purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Shared revenues Other Subtotal, general purpose fiscal assistance Regulation, control, and law enforcement: Law enforcement assistance Other Subtotal, regulation, control, and law enforcement Other current programs Loans International affairs Energy supply Agriculture Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Commerce and housing credit Transportation Small Business Administration, disaster loans Education Veterans Other Total, loans Direct Federal Programs Investment-type programs: Financial investments Construction and rehabilitation of physical assets: National defense Water resource projects Other natural resources and environment Energy Transportation Veterans hospitals and other health facilities Other construction 1,589 1,297 1,329 2,800 2,264 1,121 2,279 446 552 492 3,522 2,215 1,143 2,228 480 574 667 4,454 2,143 995 1,872 497 637 543 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation of physical assets 9,954 10,829 11,140 36,411 914 42,764 358 56,904 191 37,325 43,122 57,095 Acquisition of major equipment: National defense Other Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 19 Table D-4. BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate Commodity inventories 4.797 1.403 811 Other physical assets 1,843 1,844 1,671 Conduct of research and development 33,926 37,635 41,106 Conduct of education and training: Assistance to veterans Higher education Elementary and secondary education Employment and training assistance Health training Other 2,533 6,246 395 911 672 931 2,178 6,279 391 934 549 1,177 1,899 5,585 328 640 437 1,003 11,688 11,508 9,892 Collection of information 1,385 1,222 1,171 International development 2,351 2,138 2,317 104,858 110,998 126,532 136,267 50,043 41,242 5,947 1,126 18,392 10,841 3,590 6,407 1,318 2,846 152,580 54,864 48,296 6,547 1,023 23,689 10,493 4,805 7,050 1,254 3,103 168,654 53,425 54,127 6,925 938 21,159 8,990 6,034 8,012 1,180 1,900 1,689 1,247 2,648 1,899 1,255 2,752 2,161 1,225 2,976 5.584 5.907 6,362 283,602 319,611 337,707 Social services and related programs 1,115 1,014 744 Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Agriculture Postal Service Small business assistance Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Ground transportation Air transportation Water transportation and waterways Other 4,650 1,343 492 1,109 3,255 2,270 1,035 1,746 5,551 619 540 1,536 1,994 2,137 1,176 2,194 2,714 500 595 1,785 981 2,411 1,057 2,350 Subtotal, conduct of education and training Subtotal, investment-type programs Current programs: Provision of benefits: Social Security retirement and disability Other retirement and disability benefits Medicare Medical care for veterans Other health Unemployment compensation Food and nutrition programs Housing payments and subsidies Supplemental security income Earned income tax credit Other Administrative expenses: Social Security retirement and disability Medicare Nutrition and food programs and other Subtotal, administrative expenses Subtotal, provision of benefits THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 20 Table D-4. BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation 15,900 15,747 12,393 Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: National defense Other (includes offsetting collections) 53,585 -1,231 62,525 -2,180 67,370 -3,370 Subtotal, repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets 52,354 60,345 64,000 7,139 6,909 6,698 68,556 83,015 96,414 35,831 8,902 37,610 5,081 -128 376 9,008 43,856 4,285 2.539 743 7,980 44,424 51,947 59,403 Subtotal, current programs 473,091 538,588 577,358 Total, direct Federal programs 577,949 649,586 703,890 -6,371 -10,138 -12,921 9,845 -1,000 -7,560 -7,861 -18,194 15,013 -1,000 -8,353 -18,000 -19,806 17,897 -19,585 -19,602 -29,262 657,204 725,331 757,638 1,940 4,899 5,790 4,164 31 1,200 1,955 810 211 2,644 5,740 1,066 3,473 -42 1,307 700 1,224 286 3,709 5,919 -394 1,031 -2 947 20,999 16,419 12,295 2 2,834 13 2,775 27 Regulation, control, and law enforcement Net interest Other current programs: Military personnel Allowance for Department of Defense pay raises Other national defense Allowance for civilian agency pay raises Other Subtotal, other current programs Unclassified: Fraud, waste, abuse Employer share, employee retirement Offshore oil receipts Non-compulsory medicare premiums Other unclassified Subtotal, unclassified Grand total Addendum (Direct Federal): Off-budget Federal entities: Investment-type programs: Loans: International Energy Agriculture Mortgage credit and thrift insurance Transportation Community and regional development Education Income security Other Subtotal, loans Other investment-type programs: Strategic petroleum reserve Other -309 969 115 21 SPECIAL ANALYSIS D Table D-4. BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR GRANTS-IN-AID, LOANS, AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS— Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 2 2,848 2,801 21,001' 19,267 15,096 Current: Aids to agriculture, commerce, and transportation: Postal Service Railways Other 86 -47 -36 540 12 -130 687 9 -90 Subtotal, aids to agriculture, commerce, & transportation Subtotal, current 3 3 422 422 606 606 21,005 19,689 15,701 Subtotal, other investment type Subtotal, investment Total, off-budget Federal entities SPECIAL ANALYSIS E BORROWING AND DEBT The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS E BORROWING AND DEBT The major fiscal operations of the Federal Government include not only taxation and expenditure but also: • the borrowing of cash to meet current outlays not covered by receipts and to refinance maturing debt; • the investment of balances that trust funds and other Government accounts do not currently need for outlays; and • the provision of guarantees and other assistance for certain private borrowing. This analysis summarizes current developments in Federal borrowing. It also discusses the size and growth of the Federal debt and the interest on the Federal debt, the amount of U.S. Government debt held by foreign residents, agency borrowing, agency investment in Federal securities, the statutory debt limitation, Government-guaranteed borrowing, and borrowing by Governmentsponsored enterprises. The analysis concludes with a brief discussion of the trend in Federal and federally assisted borrowing and the relationship of this trend to the total borrowing by the nonfinancial sector of the economy. Excluded from this analysis are other types of Federal liabilities, which include accounts payable, obligations for undelivered orders, long-term contracts, insurance commitments, and the obligation for such future payments as social security and employee retirement.1 Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs," 2 examines the related subject of Federal credit programs, which provide direct loans, loan guarantees, and loans by Government-sponsored enterprises. The factors discussed in both Special Analyses E and F are significant in appraising the impact on financial markets of the programs contained in the 1983 Federal budget. B O R R O W I N G A N D REPAYING DEBT The Federal Government sells debt for two principal reasons. First, it sells debt to the public, largely in order to finance the Federal deficit. Second, it sells debt to the Government agencies that accumulate surpluses in separate funds, primarily trust funds, 1 Information on many of these liabilities is contained in "Statement of Liabilities and Other Financial Commitments of the United States Government," an annual report prepared by the Bureau of Government Financial Operations of the Department of the Treasury. 2 This publication is available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402. 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 that are required by law to be invested in Federal securities. Most Federal debt has been issued by the Treasury and is called "public debt," but a small portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is called "agency debt." 3 Borrowing from the public—whether by the Treasury or by an agency—has a significant impact on financial markets and the rest of the economy, and is consequently an important concern of Federal fiscal policy. Borrowing from the public includes borrowing from the Federal Reserve System as well as borrowing from commercial banks, foreign central banks, other financial institutions and businesses, and individuals. The term "borrowing from the Federal Reserve System" does not imply that the Treasury sells debt securities directly to the Federal Reserve. Instead, the Federal Reserve normally buys securities in the open market. In the past the Federal Reserve was able to buy securities directly from the Treasury only under exceptional circumstances and in amounts limited by statute. The statutory authority for even these exceptions expired in 1981. For most purposes borrowing from the Federal Reserve System should be distinguished from borrowing from the rest of the public. Federal Reserve purchases of debt are undertaken to carry out monetary policy, not to earn income, and affect the economy by expanding bank reserves and the money stock. They thus have a markedly different motivation and effect on financial markets than do purchases by other sectors of the public. The debt held outside the Federal Reserve System enters into investment portfolios of businesses and individuals and by this means affects interest rates, other financial conditions, and the size and composition of private assets. Almost all interest received by the Federal Reserve System is returned to the Treasury as receipts, called deposits of earnings, so the Federal Reserve holdings of debt have only a small effect on the budget surplus or deficit. The estimates in this analysis for the current and future years do not divide the debt held by the public between the Federal Reserve System and the rest of the public, despite the significance of this distinction, because the Federal Reserve's open market operations depend on future economic developments and on policy decisions not yet made. Table E - l summarizes Federal borrowing from 1981 through 1985. In 1981 the total Federal borrowing (net of the refunding of securities)—i.e., the rise in gross Federal debt—was $89.6 billion. The sale of debt to Government agencies was $10.3 billion, and the sale of debt to the public was $79.3 billion. Of the increase in debt held by the public, $3.6 billion was purchased by the Federal Re3 The term "agency debt" is defined more narrowly in the budget than in the securities market, where it may include not only the debt of the Government agencies listed in table E - 6 but also certain Governmentguaranteed securities and the debt of the Government-sponsored enterprises listed in table E-10. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 5 serve System and $75.7 billion by the rest of the public. As a result of this borrowing, Federal debt held by the public increased to $794.4 billion at the end of 1981. Gross Federal debt reached one trillion dollars on the last day of the fiscal year, with the amount being $1,003.9 billion. Table E - l . FEDERAL BORROWING (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( — ) of debt Description Gross Federal debt: Treasury debt Agency debt Gross Federal debt Less debt held by Gov. agencies: Treasury debt Agency debt Debt held by Gov. agencies1 Total, debt held by public 1981 actual 1982 2 estimate 1983 estimate 90,153 131,259 124,306 -87 - 5 3 0 -1,014 1984 estimate NA NA Debt outstanding, end of year 1985 estimate 1983 estimate NA 1,253,420 NA 4,985 89,623 130,245 124,219 114,373 113,314 1985 estimate NA NA 1,258,405 1,486,092 10,313 -19 15,115 -264 16,230 -10 NA NA NA NA 235,795 1,176 NA NA 10,294 14,851 16,220 17,913 31,279 236,971 286,163 79,329 115,394 108,000 96,459 82,036 1,021,434 1,199,929 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Composed of: Debt held by the Federal Reserve System 3,620 Debt held by others 75,709 NA NA NA NA NA=Not available. 1 Agency investment in 1984 and 1985 is estimated as equal to the total trust fund surplus. 2 Borrowing from the public in 1982 excludes the change in debt held by the public due to the proposed legislation under which the ownership of an estimated $3,606 million of debt would be transferred from the railroad retirement account to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation as of September 30, 1982. Agency investment excludes the corresponding change in debt held by Government agencies. Borrowing from the public has fluctuated widely in recent years, largely in response to fluctuations in the economy. It rose from $3.0 billion in 1974 to $82.9 billion in 1976 primarily because of the 1974-75 recession and its aftermath, and it declined to $33.6 billion in 1979 as the economy recovered. The rise in borrowing to $70.5 billion in 1980 and $79.3 billion in 1981 was caused in considerable part by economic slowdown and recession. Borrowing from the public is estimated to increase to $115.4 billion in 1982 and then decline a little to $108.0 billion in 1983. The economic assumptions underlying these estimates are displayed and discussed in Part 2 of the Budget The current recession automatically reduces tax receipts and raises outlays for unemployment benefits and certain other programs; the current decrease in the rate of inflation, which is estimated to continue throughout the projection period, reduces tax receipts more quickly than it reduces outlays. By the end of 1983 gross Federal debt is estimated to be $1,258.4 billion, with $1,021.4 billion or 81% held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) and the remainder by the THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 6 agencies. Almost all of the gross Federal debt will have been issued by the Treasury. Borrowing from the public for years beyond the budget year is estimated as part of the Government's multi-year budget planning. As explained in Part 2 of the Budget, the economic assumptions underlying the receipts and outlay estimates for 1984 and 1985 are not forecasts of the probable economic conditions in these years, unlike the economic forecast underlying the 1982 and 1983 estimates. Instead, the 1984-85 assumptions are projections consistent with the economic policy objectives of the administration that assume steady progress in reducing unemployment, inflation, and interest rates and in sustaining strong real growth. The receipts and outlay estimates also assume that current tax laws are continued, as modified by the proposals in the budget, and that existing and proposed programs are carried out in 1984 and 1985 at the levels currently planned. Under these assumptions, the total Government deficit continues to decline, and borrowing from the public decreases steadily to $82.0 billion in 1985. BORROWING AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS Table E-2 shows the relationship between borrowing from the public and the Federal deficit. Until several years ago the budget deficit comprised practically the entire deficit of the Federal Government, but the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities is now significant. These entities, such as the Federal Financing Bank and the Postal Service, are parts of the Federal Government but have been excluded from the budget under provisions of law. The Government deficit is financed either by borrowing from the public or by several other means. The other means of financing are: • a decrease in cash or other kinds of monetary assets; • an increase in monetary liabilities for checks outstanding, accrued interest payable to the public, etc.; • an increase in deposit fund balances, which are discussed on pages 21-22 together with their effect on the means of financing; and • seigniorage, which is the face value of minted coins less the cost of their production. All of these other means of financing except seigniorage are changes in Government asset or liability accounts and so may be either positive or negative. In most years they add up to a positive total amount, in which case they finance part of the deficit. Sometimes, however, they add up to a negative total amount, in which case they, like the deficit, must themselves be financed by borrowing from the public. In 1981 the Government borrowed $79.3 billion from the public. Almost all of this amount, $78.9 billion, was used SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 7 to finance the Government deficit. The remainder was used to finance the other means of financing, which had a small negative total amount. Table E-2. MEANS OF FINANCING THE FEDERAL DEFICIT 1 (In millions of dollars) Description Budget surplus or deficit ( - ) Deficit ( - ) of off-budget Federal entities2 Total, surplus or deficit ( — ) Means of financing other than borrowing from the public: Decrease or increase ( - ) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease ( - ) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc. 3 Deposit fund balances4 Seigniorage on coins Total, means of financing other than borrowing from the public Total, requirements for borrowing from the public Transfer of debt holdings 5 Change in debt held by the public 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate -57,932 -21,005 -98,578 -19,689 -01,52. -15,701 -92,019 -14,285 -81,993 -10,950 -78,936 -118,267 -107,221 -978,204 -82,833 -1,668 3.700 -1,301 2,125 450 329 -1,709 553 326 -1,621 516 744 797 -393 2,873 -779 744 797 -79,329 -115,394 -3,606 -108,000 -96,459 -82,036 79,329 119,000 108,000 96,459 82,036 Several amounts have been assumed to be zero during 1983-85 because they are usually small and cannot be estimated accurately. The off-budget Federal entities consist of the Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund, Rural Telephone Bank, Federal Financing Bank, Postal Service fund, one program of the U.S. Railway Association, Synthetic Fuels Corporation, and (beginning in 1982) the Strategic Petroleum Reserve account. 3 Besides checks outstanding, includes military payment certificates, accrued interest (less unamortized discount) payable on Treasury debt, and, as an offsetting change in assets, certain collections in transit. 4 Does not include investment in Federal debt classified as debt held by the public. 5 As of September 30, 1982, $3,606 million of debt held by trust funds are estimated to be reclassified as debt held by the public, because under proposed legislation the ownership of the assets of the railroad retirement account are to be transferred to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation. 1 2 The other means of financing are normally small relative to borrowing from the public. This is because they are limited by their own nature. Decreases in cash balances, for example, are necessarily limited by past accumulations, which themselves required financing when they were built up. Thus, the extent to which means other than borrowing can finance a deficit are limited in any 1 year and are still more limited over a longer period of time. When the total Government deficit is sizable, it is necessarily the principal determinant of borrowing from the public. The debt estimated to be held by the public at the end of 1982 is increased by $3.6 billion due to proposed legislation that would transfer the ownership of the assets of the railroad retirement account as of September 30, 1982, to a newly created private corporation that was chartered to operate the rail industry pension. The transfer of these debt securities is not defined as constituting an outlay. This transaction therefore does not give rise to any financing requirement, and the transfer is a reclassification of debt hold- 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 ings rather than a borrowing from the public. The change in debt held by the public during 1982 is consequently $3.6 billion more than the borrowing from the public. Correspondingly, the change in debt held by Government agencies is $3.6 billion less than agency investment. Gross Federal debt is not affected. The structure of table E-2 demonstrates that, because of the offbudget Federal entities, balancing the budget is not enough to prevent an increase in the Federal debt held by the public. Even if the budget were balanced, the off-budget deficit would have to be financed by borrowing. The budget and the off-budget entities combined must be in balance in order for the Government not to have to borrow from the public (aside from the effects of the other means of financing). The amount of debt issued to Federal agencies depends largely on the surpluses of the trust funds, which own 90% of the Federal debt held by Government agencies. Agency investment in Federal securities and the total trust fund surplus during 1980-83 are compared in the table below (in billions of dollars): 1980 actual Agency investment in Federal debt. Total trust fund surplus 10.1 8.8 1981 actual 10.3 6.8 1982 estimate 14.9 12.5 1983 estimate 16.2 15.4 As the table shows, the agency investment in Federal securities is similar in size to the total trust fund surplus throughout this period. This relationship has historically been close, with the small differences accounted for by two factors. Certain agencies other than trust funds buy or sell Federal debt, as shown in table E-7, and the trust funds may increase or decrease their cash assets not currently invested.4 SIZE AND G R O W T H OF FEDERAL DEBT Gross Federal debt has risen substantially over the past half century, from $16.9 billion in 1929 to $1,003.9 billion at the end of 1981. Table E-3 compares the trends since 1954 in gross Federal debt and the amounts of debt held by Government accounts, the public (including the Federal Reserve System), and the Federal Reserve System. During this period the gross Federal debt increased nearly four times, with over a fifth of the increase being held in Federal Government accounts (primarily trust funds) rather than being owed to the public. In the quarter century from the end of 1956 to the end of 1981, gross Federal debt increased at an average annual rate of 5.3% and debt held by the public in4 These "open book balances" are small relative to trust fund holdings of Federal debt, as shown in Special Analysis C, "Funds in the Budget." 9 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S A Table E - 3 . COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT A N D GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Dollar amounts in billions) Debt outstanding, end of year Held by Fiscal year Gross Federal debt Federal Government accounts The public Total Federal Reserve System GNP Other Debt held by public as percent of GNP 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 270.8 274.4 272.8 272.4 279.7 287.8 46.3 47.8 50.5 52.9 53.3 52.8 224.5 226.6 222.2 219.4 226.4 235.0 25.0 23.6 23.8 23.0 25.4 26.0 199.5 203.0 198.5 196.4 200.9 209.0 364.2 380.6 411.8 433.9 443.1 474.4 61.6 59.5 54.0 50.7 51.1 49.5 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 290.9 292.9 303.3 310.8 316.8 323.2 329.5 341.3 369.8 367.1 53.7 54.3 54.9 56.3 59.2 61.5 64.8 73.8 79.1 87.7 237.2 238.6 248.4 254.5 257.6 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 26.5 27.3 29.7 32.0 34.8 39.1 42.2 46.7 52.2 54.1 210.7 211.4 218.7 222.4 222.8 222.5 222.5 220.8 238.4 225.4 497.9 509.3 548.2 578.0 618.2 659.5 724.1 777.3 831.3 910.6 47.6 46.8 45.3 44.0 41.7 39.7 36.6 34.4 35.0 30.7 382.6 409.5 437.3 468.4 486.2 544.1 631.9 646.4 709.1 780.4 833.8 97.7 105.1 113.6 125.4 140.2 147.2 151.6 148.1 157.3 169.5 189.2 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 57.7 65.5 71.4 75.2 80.6 85.0 94.7 96.7 105.0 115.5 115.6 227.2 238.8 252.3 267.9 265.4 311.9 385.6 401.6 446.8 495.5 529.0 968.8 1,031.5 1,128.8 1,252.0 1,379.4 1,479.9 1,640.1 1,723.3 1,864.1 2,083.8 2,353.3 29.4 29.5 28.7 27.4 25.1 26.8 29.3 28.9 29.6 29.3 27.4 914.3 1,003.9 1,134.2 1,258.4 1,372.8 1,486.1 199.2 209.5 220.8 237.0 254.9 286.2 715.1 794.4 913.4 1,021.4 1,117.9 1,199.9 120.8 124.5 NA NA NA NA 594.3 670.0 NA NA NA NA 2,567.5 2,858.6 3,082.9 3,433.6 3,791.9 4,163.5 27.9 27.8 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.8 1 1970 2 1971 1972 1973 3 1974 1975 1976 4 TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 estimate5 estimate estimate estimate NA=Not available. 1 During 1969, 3 Government-sponsored enterprises became completely privately owned, and their debt was removed from the totals for the Federal Government. At the dates of their conversion, gross Federal debt was reduced $10.7 billion, debt held by Government accounts was reduced $0.6 billion, and debt held by the public was reduced $10.1 billion. 2 Gross Federal debt and debt held by the public increased $1.6 billion due to a reclassification of the Commodity Credit Corporation certificates of interest from loan assets to debt. 3 A procedural change in the recording of trust fund holdings of Treasury debt at the end of the month increased gross Federal debt and debt held in Government accounts by about $4.5 billion. 4 Gross Federal debt and debt held by the public increased $0.5 billion due to a retroactive reclassification of the Export-Import Bank certificates of beneficial interest from loan assets to debt. 5 As of September 30, 1982, $3.6 billion of Federal debt held by Government accounts are estimated to be reclassified as debt held by the public, because under proposed legislation the ownership of the assets of the railroad retirement account are to be transferred to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation. 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 creased at an average annual rate of 5.2%. Federal debt held by the public apart from the Federal Reserve System rose a little more slowly, at an average annual rate of 4.9%, because during this period the Federal Reserve System bought a large quantity of Federal debt in the market, thereby expanding the reserves of the banking system and increasing the Nation's money stock. During the depression of the 1930's and during World War II, Federal debt held by the public increased greatly, not only in absolute amount but also, as shown in the chart above, as a proportion of the total credit market debt owed by nonfinancial sectors of the economy: Federal, State and local, and private.5 Whereas Federal debt held by the public was only 13% of total debt at the end of calendar year 1929, it had risen to 70% by the end of calendar year 1945. Federal borrowing was large during these years, particularly to finance World War II, and borrowing by other sectors was restricted by low incomes and poor credit-worthiness during the depression and by controls and scarcities during the war. 5 The estimates for 1946 to the present are from the Federal Reserve Board flow-of-funds accounts; the estimates for earlier years are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce and are linked to the flow-of-funds estimates on the basis of their respective 1946 levels. The data are for calendar years during 1929-51 and for fiscal years thereafter. The private sector debt includes debt of foreigners. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 11 From 1945 to 1974, however, private debt increased as a proportion of total credit market debt in every single year, and likewise in every year the Federal debt held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) decreased as a proportion of the total. This uninterrupted trend ended in 1975 because of the large Federal deficit caused by recession. Another large Federal deficit in 1976 caused Federal debt held by the public to rise as a percentage of total debt again in that year, and the 1980-81 recessions led to further increases in the percentage. As a result of these events, Federal debt held by the public remained at about the same percentage of total debt during the past decade. The percentage was 18% at the end of 1981, which is the same as in 1973 and only a little less than the 20% in 1971. Over a longer period, however, the decrease in the relative importance of Federal debt is unmistakable in comparison with both private debt and State and local government debt. During the years from 1961 to 1981, for example, the average annual rate of growth was 6.1% for Federal debt held by the public, 7.7% for State and local debt, and 10.3% for private debt. As a result of these trends, Federal debt, though still important, is a relatively smaller influence in the financial market than it was twenty or thirty years ago. (As described in the final section of this special analysis, however, the relative influence of the combined total of Federal and federally assisted borrowing has been rising in the last few years.) During the same period Federal debt has decreased relative to gross national product (GNP). As shown in table E-3, debt held by the public equaled 61.6% of GNP at the end of 1954 but declined steadily to 25.1% by the end of 1974. Since then, however, primarily due to recessions and economic slowdowns, debt held by the public has fluctuated as a percentage of GNP, at the same time as it has fluctuated as a percentage of total credit market debt. As a result, Federal debt held by the public remained at about the same percentage of GNP during the past decade. The percentage was 27.8% at the end of 1981, which is above the levels reached in several years and only slightly less than the 29.5% in 1971. The percentage is estimated to be 29-30% during 1982-85. The interest cost of the debt may be more significant than the amount of the debt for some types of comparison designed to measure the importance of Federal indebtedness. Interest on the debt held by the public has risen much faster than the debt itself, due to a strong upward trend since World War II in the interest rates that must be paid on new borrowings and on refunded debt. The interest rate on 91-day Treasury bills, for example, averaged 14.1% in calendar year 1981 and 11.5% in calendar year 1980 compared to 6.3% in the 1970's, 4.0% in the 1960's, and 2.0% in the 1950's. Consequently, whereas the Federal debt held by the public increased by almost 4 times between 1954 and 1981, table E-4 shows that the interest paid on this debt increased by 15 times. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 12 Table E-4. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN INTEREST ON FEDERAL DEBT (Dollar amounts in billions) Interest on debt held by the public as a percent of Interest on the gross Federal debt Paid to Fiscal year Total 1 Federal Government accounts The public Total Federal Reserve System 2 Other GNP Budget outlays3 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8 7.8 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 0.5 .4 .5 .7 .7 .8 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.42 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.43 1.35 7.29 7.56 7.90 7.73 7.68 6.96 1968 1969 9.5 9.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.6 17.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.5 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.6 12.6 14.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.6 10.2 11.2 1.62 1.53 1.44 1.50 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.50 1.52 1.55 8.73 7.96 7.40 7.78 7.80 8.29 7.75 7.39 7.09 7.70 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 20.0 21.6 22.5 24.8 30.0 33.5 37.7 8.3 42.6 49.3 60.3 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.0 .6 9.6 10.2 12.1 15.6 16.3 16.6 18.5 22.4 24.7 28.7 7.6 33.0 39.2 48.3 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.5 6.1 6.3 NA 6.8 8.0 9.6 12.2 12.6 12.9 14.2 16.9 18.6 22.5 NA 26.2 31.2 38.6 1.61 1.58 1.47 1.48 1.62 1.67 1.75 1.77 1.77 1.88 2.05 7.99 7.78 7.20 7.54 8.35 7.60 7.89 8.11 8.24 8.73 9.83 75.2 96.0 116.0 133.2 14.8 17.1 19.6 19.9 60.4 78.9 96.4 113.4 12.5 13.6 NA NA 47.9 65.3 NA NA 2.35 2.76 3.13 3.30 10.48 12.00 13.29 14.96 1959 1960 1961 1980 1981 1982 estimate 1983 estimate NA=Not available. 1 Total interest significantly exceeds the outlays for the interest function in the budget, because ttie interest function includes collections of interest as an offset to outlays. 2 These figures are approximate. For most years they are estimated as the average of calendar year amounts. The 1981 estimate is tentative. 3 Budget outlays for all years are published in the Bud£et, Part 9, table 23. As a result, interest payments to the public have tended to grow faster than GNP over this entire period. In the late 1950's interest was equal to 1.4% of GNP, whereas by 1971 it had risen to 1.6% and by 1981 it had reached a record high of 2.8%. This percentage is estimated to be higher still in 1982 and 1983, even though it is assumed that market interest rates will decline with the estimated decrease in the rate of inflation. Interest paid to the public as a percentage of budget outlays does not show the same sustained trend over the period as a whole. In recent years, however, this percentage has also been rising stead- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 13 ily. In 1981 interest paid to the public was 12.0% of budget outlays, which was much higher than the 7.8% just 10 years before and was also above the percentage of any earlier year in the last quarter century. In 1982 and 1983 this percentage is estimated to be even higher, in part because of the slowdown in the rate of growth of other budget outlays. Thus, by either measure the importance of interest on the debt is now relatively high and rising. Since the end of World War II the composition of the Federal debt has changed. Until a few years ago an increasingly large proportion of marketable securities had a short maturity. One contributing factor was the statutory ceiling of 4V4% that has been maintained since 1918 on the interest rate for Treasury bonds. Long-term market rates exceeded 4XA% after 1965, so after that year the ceiling prevented the Treasury from selling long-term obligations. This restriction on Treasury borrowing has been relaxed in two ways. One method has been to increase the maximum maturity of notes, which are not subject to the interest rate ceiling. The maximum maturity was raised by law from 5 to 7 years in 1967 and to 10 years in 1976. As of December 31, 1981, the amount of notes outstanding with an original maturity over 5 years was $149.9 billion, of which $71.7 billion had an original maturity over 7 years. The other method of relaxing the restriction has been to allow limited amounts of bonds to be sold at interest rates above the ceiling. In 1971 the Treasury was allowed by law to issue up to $10 billion of bonds at interest rates above 4Vi%. In 1973 those bonds held by Government accounts and the Federal Reserve System were exempted from the interest rate limit, and since 1976 the amount of the exception for other bonds has been raised in seven steps to $70 billion. As of December 31, 1981, $90.4 billion of bonds outstanding had been sold since the change of law in 1971, of which $67.1 billion were held by the public exclusive of the Federal Reserve System. The effective interest rates have ranged from 6.1 to 15.8%. Notwithstanding the initial relaxations of the interest rate ceiling, the average maturity of privately held, marketable Treasury debt decreased steadily from 4 years at the end of 1967 to about 2Vfe years at the end of 1976. Since then, however, as the restriction has been relaxed further, the average maturity has gradually lengthened to about 4 years. DEBT HELD BY FOREIGN RESIDENTS During most of American history the debt of the Federal Government was held almost entirely by individuals and institutions within the United States. In 1946, just after World War II, the debt 360-700 - 0 - 82 - 2 (Pt. E) T H E B U D G E T FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1983 14 held in foreign official balances and international accounts was about $2 billion, less than 1% of the total debt held by the public. In the following years the debt held by foreign residents tended to grow gradually, and, as shown in table E-5, rose to just over $10.0 billion by the late 1960's. This was still less than 5% of the total Federal debt held by the public. Interest paid to foreign residents was a correspondingly small proportion of the total interest paid on debt held by the public. Table E - 5 . FOREIGN HOLDINGS OF FEDERAL DEBT (In billions of dollars) Debt held by the public Fiscal year Total Foreign1 Borrowinj ; from the pul}lic Total 2 Foreign Interest on debt held by the public Total Foreign3 0.3 .7 .2 .7 .4 11.6 12.6 14.1 0.5 .5 .6 .7 .7 3.8 19.4 19.4 19.3 3.0 3.8 17.8 17.3 10.3 -2.6 15.6 16.3 16.6 18.5 22.4 .8 1.3 2.4 3.2 4.1 66.0 69.8 74.6 95.5 121.0 125.1 50.9 82.9 18.0 53.5 59.1 33.6 9.2 3.8 4.9 20.9 25.5 4.1 24.7 28.7 7.6 33.0 39.2 48.3 4.5 4.4 1.2 5.0 7.9 10.7 126.4 135.5 70.5 79.3 1.3 9.1 60.4 78.9 11.9 16.0 1965 1966 1967 1968 . 1969 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 12.3 11.6 11.4 10.7 10.3 4.1 3.1 2.8 23.1 -1.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 14.0 31.8 49.2 59.4 56.8 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 396.9 480.3 498.3 551.8 610.9 644.6 1980 1981 715.1 794.4 - 9.8 10.4 Estimated by Treasury Department. These estimates exclude agency debt, the holdings of which are believed to be small. Borrowing from the public is defined as equal to the change in debt held by the public from the beginning of the year to the end, except to the extent that the amount of debt is changed by reclassification. Reclassifications are identified in the footnotes to table E-3. 3 Estimated by Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce. These estimates include small amounts of interest on the debt of Government-sponsored enterprises, which are not part of the Federal Government. 1 2 Foreign holdings began to grow much faster starting in 1970. This change arose in part out of decisions by foreign monetary institutions to intervene in foreign exchange markets. Because of the role of the dollar as an international currency, large amounts of the official reserves and other financial assets of foreign nations are held in dollar denominated form. Thus, the exchange market intervention by foreign monetary institutions often acted to increase their official reserves of dollars. U.S. Government securities are the safest and one of the most liquid forms of holding dollar assets. Consequently, as foreign countries acquired more dollar denominated official reserves, they purchased a large amount of U.S. Government securities. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 15 The second principal reason for the growth of foreign holdings has been the massive current account surpluses of some countries, particularly the OPEC nations, since 1974. The counterpart to these surpluses has been the acquisition of financial assets, and the financial assets acquired in the United States have largely taken the form of U.S. Government securities. The increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Government securities during the past decade has therefore been primarily the product of foreign decisions. By the end of 1981 foreign holdings of Treasury debt had reached $135.5 billion, which was 17% of the total debt held by the public. Because of the rising interest rates, the interest paid on foreign holdings of debt grew much faster than did the foreign holdings themselves. The proportion of total interest paid to foreign residents grew in roughly the same way as did the proportion of the total debt held by foreigners. In the years before 1970, when debt held by foreign residents was relatively small, borrowing from the public was approximately the same as borrowing from the domestic public. Since 1970, though, borrowing from the domestic public has in some years been quite different from total borrowing. As table E-5 shows, borrowing from foreign residents was nearly all or a major part of total borrowing from the public during 1970-73 and 1977-78, although it was only 8% during the past 3 years, 1979-81. For the period as a whole, borrowing from foreign residents was 24% of borrowing from the public. Most of the Federal debt held by foreign residents is owned by foreign central banks or other official institutions and is denominated in dollars. Beginning in December 1978, however, the Treasury sold the equivalent of $6.4 billion of securities denominated in Deutsche marks and Swiss francs to residents of Germany and Switzerland, respectively. By selling these securities, the Treasury acquired foreign currencies for use in intervention operations. No securities of this kind have been sold since January 1980, and $4.1 billion of these securities are still outstanding. BORROWING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES A few Government agencies are authorized to sell their own debt instruments to the public and to other Government agencies and funds. This agency borrowing is part of the gross Federal debt. The authorization to borrow is budget authority, and the disbursement of borrowed money is an outlay. Borrowing by the off-budget Federal entities is treated in the same manner as any other agency borrowing. Agency borrowing was shown in total in table E - l and is shown by agency in table E-6. In all 3 years more debt is repaid than is newly borrowed, and over the period as a whole total agency debt THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 16 Table E-6. AGENCY BORROWING 3 (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( - ) of debt Description Borrowing from the public: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2 Defense Health and Human Services2 Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Housing for elderly or handicapped2 Government National Mortgage Assoc.2 Revolving fund (liquidating programs)2 Transportation: Coast Guard Treasury: College housing loans 2 Higher education facilities2 Veterans Administration2 Export-Import Bank National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility.. Postal Service Small Business Administration2 Tennessee Valley Authority Total, borrowing from the public.. Borrowing from other funds: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2.. Defense Health and Human Services2 Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Housing for elderly or handicapped2 Government National Mortgage Assoc.2.... Revolving fund (liquidating programs) 2 .. Treasury: College housing loans2 Higher education facilities2 Veterans Administration2 Small Business Administration2 Total, borrowing from other funds.. Total, agency borrowing included in gross Federal debt 1981 actual -47 1982 1983 estimate -31 -137 -110 -32 -58 -115 -24 -7 -30 -215 -410 118 -17 109 -81 -511 -750 -77 -14 -28 -12 4 -104 -22 - 6 -27 -74 -19 -264 -530 -1,014 -87 2,342 11 -232 1,975 -267 2,234 -3 433 2,100 -94 1,965 -4 -87 1,675 -13 3,830 4,669 3,537 - 1 0 ADDENDUM Borrowing from Federal Financing Bank: Export-Import Bank National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility.. Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority United States Railway Association Total, agency borrowing from Federal Financing Bank * $500 thousand or less. 1 Excludes agency borrowing from Treasury. , . 2 Certificates of participation in loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association on behalf of several agencies. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 17 decreases by $1.6 billion or by one-quarter. The agency debt outstanding at the end of 1983 is less than 1% of gross Federal debt. As shown in the addendum to table E-6, the amount of agency borrowing has been profoundly affected by the Federal Financing Bank (FFB).6 The FFB was created in December 1973 under the Treasury Department as an off-budget Federal entity and began financial operations in May 1974. Its purposes are to assist and coordinate agency borrowing and guaranteed borrowing and to reduce the cost to the Government of some of its borrowing operations. It has the authority to purchase agency debt and guaranteed obligations and, in turn, to finance these transactions by borrowing from the Treasury. With the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury, the FFB is authorized to borrow from the Treasury without a statutory limit on the amount.7 Since the FFB can borrow from the Treasury at lower interest rates than other agencies would have to pay in the market, this practice reduces the cost of agency borrowing. The FFB thus serves as a conduit for agency borrowing, and Treasury securities replace the securities of other agencies in the market. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not included in gross Federal debt. It would be triple counting to add together the agency borrowing from the FFB, the FFB borrowing from Treasury, and the Treasury borrowing from the public that was necessary to provide the FFB with funds to lend to the agencies. As a result of the FFB, several agencies that would otherwise borrow mostly in the market borrowed $3.8 billion from the FFB in 1981 and are estimated to borrow $4.7 billion in 1982 and $3.5 billion in 1983. Because these agencies now borrow almost entirely from the FFB instead of the public, almost no new agency borrowing in the market took place in the last 7 years or is scheduled to take place in the future. The change in agency debt outstanding is therefore determined almost entirely by the repayment of maturing debt and consequently is negative each year. If the FFB had not been created, the agency component of gross Federal debt would be several times greater than it is now, though not by the exact amount that agencies have borrowed from the FFB. The Treasury component would be correspondingly less. By the end of 1983, $2.0 billion of agency debt, or two-fifths of the total, will be obligations of three of the five agencies listed in table E-6 that in recent years have borrowed almost exclusively from the FFB: the Export-Import Bank, Postal Service, and Tennessee Valley Authority. A total of $2.2 billion, or another two-fifths of FFB purchases of guaranteed obligations are shown in table E - l l . 7 The FFB also is authorized to have outstanding up to $15 billion of publicly issued debt. Treasury classifies this as public debt rather than agency debt. The FFB borrowed $1.5 billion in 8-month bills from the public in July 1974. All of its other borrowing has been from Treasury, because Treasury can borrow from the public at slightly lower interest rates than FFB would have to pay. No further FFB borrowing from the public is planned. 6 18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 all agency debt, will consist of certificates of participation in pools of loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association as trustee on behalf of several agencies, which are identified in table E-6. These certificates have not been issued since 1968. A further $265 million of agency debt will be family housing mortgages assumed by the Department of Defense (and Coast Guard) under programs almost entirely terminated about two decades ago. The remaining agency debt—$561 million, or 11% of the total— will have been issued by two agencies, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and the National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility. The FHA conducts the only program that has normally continued to borrow from the public. It issues debentures as payment for insurance claims on defaulted loans, so these securities could not be sold to the FFB. The National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility has borrowed from the FFB in the past but is scheduled to borrow from the public instead beginning during 1982. The Treasury supplies capital to business-type Government enterprises in return for both capital stock and debt. The debt is shown as "borrowing from Treasury" on the statements of financial condition for enterprises in the Budget Appendix. However, the equity and the debt instruments are the same in substance; and it would be double counting to add together the agency borrowing from the Treasury and the Treasury borrowing from the public that was necessary to provide the agencies with this capital. Therefore, agency borrowing from Treasury is excluded from the figures on agency borrowing and debt and from the discussion of this subject both in this special analysis and in all other parts of the budget documents. A G E N C Y INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES Trust funds and some public enterprise funds accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to meet future claims and demands. Such cash surpluses are invested mostly in Treasury debt and, to a very small extent, in agency debt. Since these are debt transactions, purchases are not counted as budget outlays and redemptions are not counted as budget receipts. Net investment by trust funds and other Federal agencies rose steadily during the late 1970's from the relatively low level of $4.3 billion in the high unemployment year of 1976 to $19.7 billion in 1979. This was caused primarily by the rise in gross national product, the growing payment from the general fund to the civil service retirement and disability trust fund, and the tax increase resulting from the Social Security Amendments of 1977. In 1980, however, agency investment declined to $10.1 billion, and in 1981, as shown in table E-7, it was $10.3 billion. Agency investment is estimated to rise moderately in 1982 and reach $16.2 billion in 1983. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 19 Table E-7. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES (In millions of dollars) Description Investment in Treasury debt: Health and Human Services: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Other Interior: Outer Continental Shelf deposit funds Labor: Unemployment trust fund Transportation: Highway trust fund Airport and airway trust fund Treasury: Exchange stabilization fund 1 Federal Financing Bank2 Veterans Administration: National service life insurance trust fund Other trust funds Veterans reopened insurance fund Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.: Trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Office of Personnel Management: Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund Other trust funds Postal Service fund2 Railroad Retirement account: Trust fund 3 Other Federal funds Other trust funds Other off-budget Federal entities Other deposit funds 4 Total, investment in Treasury debt 3 Investment in agency debt: Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corp Health and Human Services: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Veterans Administration: National service life insurance trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Office of Personnel Management: Civil Service retirement and disability trust fund Total, investment in agency debt Investment or disinvestment ( - ) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Holdings end of 1983 estimate -322 -4,282 3,535 -737 -10,331 3,525 4,480 2,083 125 -5,087 1,989 2,042 12,495 1,831 24,610 7,946 161 -20 48 1,993 815 390 -281 121 2,059 -4,116 1,000 133 150 -337 -300 3,582 1,247 534 5,804 9,111 -1,674 -711 -679 -881 -345 263 8,163 4,093 -414 -78 350 368 3,848 142 9 14 1,716 -373 183 28 13 1,810 -24 266 21 9 2,000 150 8,520 1,150 490 15,704 4,683 10,477 458 -545 -736 165 670 13,537 579 -182 1,663 208 578 13,201 733 -850 110,469 6,107 950 195 506 1,642 2,805 3 8 10,313 15,115 16,230 235,795 -6 -5 * 2 -100 -50 -4 -9 2 455 -10 169 175 135 67 -11 -100 175 -19 -264 -10 1,176 Total, investment in Federal debt 3 10,294 14,851 16,220 236,971 MEMORANDUM Federal funds trust funds 3 off-budget Federal entities deposit funds4 -440 9,361 -623 1,996 763 12,210 -182 2,059 1,994 15,413 -850 -337 16,438 213,769 953 5,812 Investment Investment Investment Investment by by by by * $500 thousand or less. 1 Investment in 1982 and 1983 is estimated as equal to interest collections. 2 Off-budget Federal entity. 3 Investment in 1982 does not include the reclassification of an estimated $3,606 million of debt held by the railroad retirement account as debt held by the public. Under proposed legislation this is scheduled to occur as of September 30, 1982, when the ownership assets of the account is to be transferred to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation. 4 Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Total agency holdings of Federal securities will reach an estimated $237.0 billion by the end of 1983. This will comprise 19% of the gross Federal debt. One major trust fund—the civil service retirement and disability trust fund—will account for nearly half of total agency holdings and will have accounted for almost nine-tenths of total agency investment during 1981-83. All the trust funds together will account for 90% of the holdings at the end of 1983. Nearly all of the holdings in Government accounts will be Treasury debt, and the holdings of agency debt will continue to decline by small amounts. The trust funds financed by the social security tax—old age and survivors insurance (OASI), disability insurance, and hospital insurance—disinvest as a whole each year during 1981-83 for a cumulative decrease in holdings of Government debt of $6.4 billion. The short-term financial problems reflected in this disinvestment have developed in spite of the very large increase in tax receipts generated by the Social Security Amendments of 1977. Recessions and slow economic expansion in recent years raised unemployment, which reduced payrolls and, thereby, payroll tax receipts below what they would otherwise have been; inflation as measured by the consumer price index exceeded the rate of wage increase, so OASI benefit payments, which are fully indexed to changes in the consumer price index, increased faster than the payroll tax receipts used to finance the benefits. The financial condition of these three funds differs markedly, with OASI having the most severe short-term problem. Because of the divergent conditions, legislation was enacted in 1980 to shift some of the disability insurance tax receipts to OASI during 1981 and 1982. This has not been enough, however, to prevent estimated OASI disinvestment of $10.3 billion during 1982, which will reduce its holdings of Government securities to only $12.4 billion. Legislation was therefore enacted in 1981 to limit certain social security benefits and to permit OASI to borrow from the disability insurance and hospital insurance trust funds through December 1982. Borrowing of $15.1 billion is assumed during this period for the calculations leading to the investment figures in table E-7, and this is estimated to be large enough to finance the full benefit payments of OASI through September 1983. Because of the temporary shift of tax receipts and the borrowing between funds, the respective amounts of investment or disinvestment shown in table E-7 do not reflect the underlying financial conditions of the respective funds. A National Commission on Social Security Reform has been established to address the financial problems of the social security system and to report its recommendations by January 1983. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 21 As stated previously in this special analysis, under proposed legislation an estimated $3.6 billion of debt securities held by the railroad retirement account will be transferred as of September 30, 1982, to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation. This $3.6 billion comes from two sources: the holdings that the railroad retirement account would normally have had at the end of 1982; and the net effect of transferring balances in 1982 equal to the amount of payments that would otherwise have taken place in 1983 between this account and the old age and survivors insurance, disability insurance, and hospital insurance trust funds. The transfer from the railroad retirement account to the private corporation is treated as a reclassification of debt holdings, which does not constitute disinvestment by a trust fund or borrowing from the public. As a result, agency investment in 1982 is an estimated $3.6 billion more than the change in agency holdings of Federal debt. A comparatively small amount of Federal debt is held by deposit funds. Deposit funds are amounts held by the Federal Government as an agent for others (such as State income taxes withheld from Federal employees' salaries and not yet paid to the States); cash collections awaiting determination as to their final disposition; and other sums held temporarily before being refunded or paid into some other fund. Deposit fund balances are thus not the property of the Federal Government, and changes in balances are not included in the budget totals. In most cases deposit funds consist of uninvested balances, but some funds are invested in Treasury debt and collect interest on their investments. Since a deposit fund is not Federal property, its holding of Federal debt is normally treated as debt held by the public rather than as debt held by a Government account. However, the investments of three deposit funds are treated as agency investments rather than as debt held by the public. One of these is a relatively small account that has the same characteristics as a trust fund. The other two deposit funds contain receipts from rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf, the title to which is in dispute between the Federal Government and the States. Until title is settled, these amounts are being held in deposit funds. The balances of these funds were first invested in Federal debt in 1980, when they acquired $2.1 billion of Treasury securities. As shown in table E-7, they acquired $2.0 billion more in 1981 and are estimated to hold $5.8 billion at the end of 1983. The Treasury concluded that the Federal claim on these receipts is sufficiently strong that it would be more accurate to classify them as Government holdings of Federal debt rathern than as debt held by the public. Because increases in uninvested deposit funds increase Treasury cash balances without affecting the Government deficit or debt, 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 they provide a means of financing the deficit without borrowing from the public (decreases have the opposite effect). Such increases appear as one of the "means of financing other than borrowing" in tables E-2 and E-9. Under the normal rule, with the deposit funds treated as part of the public, deposit fund investment in Federal debt decreases the deposit fund balances available to finance the deficit by means other than borrowing from the public. This is because the debt issued by the Treasury to the deposit fund is itself defined to be an increase in debt held by the public. However, when deposit fund holdings are treated as holdings by a Government account, the investment of deposit fund balances in Federal debt does not reduce the amount of balances available to finance the deficit by means other than borrowing from the public. The debt issued by Treasury to the deposit fund is an increase in agency investment, and borrowing from the public is therefore unchanged. This transaction does, however, increase the gross Federal debt and the debt subject to statutory limit (as shown in table E-9). LIMITATIONS ON FEDERAL DEBT Statutory limitations have normally been placed on Federal debt. Until World War I, the Congress ordinarily authorized a specific amount for each debt issue. Beginning with the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, however, the nature of the limitation was modified in several steps until it developed into a ceiling on the total amount of most Federal debt outstanding. The latter type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit currently applies to the total of: • almost all public debt issued by the Treasury since September 1917, whether held by the public or by the Government; • agency debt in the form of participation certificates issued during 1968 under the Participation Sales Act of 1966; and • other debt issued by Federal agencies that, according to explicit statute, is fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States. The debt subject to statutory limit8 includes virtually all Treasury debt. The small amount of Treasury debt not subject to limit is shown in table E-8. It consists almost entirely of currencies no 8 The statutory debt limit is sometimes called the public debt limit. However, as explained in the text, the limit does not apply to all public debt and does apply to some debt other than public debt. 23 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table E-8. DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT (In millions of dollars) End of year Descriptions Federal debt held by the public Federal debt held by Government agencies Total, gross Federal debt 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1981 actual 794,434 209,507 913,434 220,752 1,021,434 236,971 1,003,941 1,134,186 1,258,405 607 607 607 517 446 265 18 227 250 1,725 1,030 Deduct: Treasury debt not subject to limit Agency debt not subject to the general limit: Department of Defense Export-Import Bank National Credit Union Central Liquidity Facility Postal Service Tennessee Valley Authority Participation certificates1 Coast Guard 250 1,725 1,580 1 389 35 118 250 1,725 1,030 1 Total, Federal debt not subject to limit 5,125 4,155 4,122 998,815 3 1,130,031 3 1,254,283 3 998,818 1,130,034 1,254,285 Gross Federal debt subject to statutory limit Other debt subject to limit, and adjustments Total, debt subject to statutory limit * *$500 thousand or less. 1 Certificates of participation in loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association on behalf of several agencies (this excludes the certificates issued during 1968, which are subject to the debt limit). longer being issued, such as silver certificates and national bank notes, which were generally reclassified as Federal debt some time after being discontinued. The major part of agency debt is not subject to the general statutory limit. The only categories now included are the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration and the participation certificates sold in 1968. These securities comprise about one-quarter of all agency debt. However, most other agency debt is subject to special statutory limits. For example, the Tennessee Valley Authority was first authorized to issue revenue bonds to finance power facilities in 1959. The limit was $750 million. Subsequently, in order to enable TVA to finance additional facilities, Congress raised the limit several times. It is now $30 billion. The Postal Service is limited to $10 billion of securities outstanding and $2 billion of annual borrowing. Proposed appropriation bill limitations would restrict its annual borrowing to $1 billion in 1983 and would require that any borrowing for operating expenses during 1983 be limited to half this amount and repaid within 12 months. 24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 The only other debt subject to the general statutory limit is a very small amount, less than a million dollars, of matured principal and interest. This is not defined as part of gross Federal debt. To derive the debt subject to limit from the gross Federal debt also requires a very small accounting adjustment. The level of the statutory limit on the Federal debt has frequently been changed by Congress. During the 1960's Congress passed 13 separate acts to raise the limit or to extend the duration of a temporary increase in the limit, and during the 1970's Congress passed 18 such acts. Congress passed three more such acts in 1981. These frequent changes have come about both because the Federal debt has grown steadily and substantially and because of the nature of the debt limit legislation. Since 1971 the statutory debt limit has consisted of a permanent limit of $400 billion plus a temporary increment that was usually scheduled to expire in a year or less. Because the debt subject to limit has been more than $400 billion, new legislation has been required no later than the date when each temporary increment expired. Three times in recent years the temporary increment expired without having been extended, so for a few days on each occasion the Federal debt exceeded the statutory limit. The validity of debt issued prior to the expiration of the temporary ceiling was not affected, but the Treasury Department had to suspend all auctions of new securities and all sales of savings bonds. Such a situation creates uncertainty in the securities market and forces the Treasury to take actions that produce administrative costs. The statutory debt limit was formerly raised only by normal legislation. In September 1979, however, the method of enacting statutory debt limits was altered by statute (Public Law 96-78). The purpose of the change was for the House of Representatives to vote on the debt limit as a part of the congressional budget process. The first and second concurrent resolutions on the budget (scheduled to be adopted by May 15 and September 15, respectively, for the forthcoming fiscal year) establish targets or ceilings for budget outlays, receipts, and the budget deficit and also recommend an appropriate level for the debt subject to limit. The recommendation as to the appropriate level of debt had not previously had the effect of law, nor had it been part of the direct process whereby the debt limit was established. However, beginning with the resolutions adopted in calendar year 1980, the budget resolution that is adopted by the Congress has been a part of the process that establishes a debt limit. The vote in the House of Representatives is deemed to have been a vote in favor of a joint resolution setting the statutory limit. The joint resolution is thus deemed to have passed the House and is trans- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 25 mitted to the Senate for further legislative action. Upon final passage, it is sent to the President for his signature. This new procedure relates the decision on the debt limit to the congressional decision on the Federal deficit and the other factors, explained in the following section, that determine the change in the debt subject to limit. It is also intended to ensure that a new increase in the debt limit will be enacted well before the previous increase is scheduled to expire, thereby reducing the uncertainty about extension of the debt limit and eliminating the costs that occur when the level of debt exceeds or is about to exceed the debt limit. The debt limit may still be changed by a separate act as in the past. This new procedure went into effect after the first budget resolution was passed on June 12, 1980. This resolution, which contained revised totals for 1980 as well as the initial targets for 1981, had two separate provisions for changing the debt limit. In the section revising the second budget resolution for 1980, it declared that the appropriate debt limit from the date of enactment through February 28, 1981, was $925 billion; and in the section on the 1981 totals, it declared that the appropriate debt limit for the fiscal year beginning on October 1, 1980, was $935.1 billion. Both provisions were deemed to have passed the House, as separate joint resolutions (as well as being part of the concurrent resolution on the budget), and were sent to the Senate. The Senate passed the former resolution, and it was signed into law by the President on June 28. Thus, the debt limit was set at $925 billion for the period from June 28, 1980, to February 28, 1981. The second budget resolution, which passed Congress on November 20, 1980, declared that the appropriate level of the debt limit was $978.6 billion through the end of fiscal year 1981. A separate joint resolution to this effect was deemed to have passed the House, but the Senate did not concur. An increase in the debt limit was needed, and the Senate instead went back to the joint resolution (arising from the first budget resolution) that it had received from the House in June but had not passed. The Senate passed this resolution, which raised the debt limit to $935.1 billion through September 30, 1981, and it was signed into law by the President on December 19, 1980. A further increase was needed soon thereafter, however. On February 7, 1981, the debt limit was increased by ordinary legislation to $985 billion for the period ending September 30, 1981. The first budget resolution for 1982 was adopted by the Congress on May 20, 1981. The section revising the totals for 1981 declared that the appropriate debt limit for the rest of the 1981 fiscal year was $999.8 billion; the section on the 1982 totals declared that the appropriate debt limit for the 1982 fiscal year was $1,079.8 billion. 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Two joint resolutions were thus deemed to have passed the House. The Senate did not take action until September 29, 1981, when it passed both resolutions. Because of uncertainty over when Congress would act, the Treasury had to briefly postpone one auction of Treasury bills. The President signed the resolutions on September 30, so the debt limit was raised to $999.8 billion for September 30 and $1,079.8 billion for the period from October 1, 1981, through September 30, 1982. However, a further increase will be necessary before the end of the fiscal year in order for the Federal Government to meet its obligations. The outstanding debt subject to limit is compared in table E-8 with the gross Federal debt and the Federal debt held by the public. The debt subject to limit was $998.8 billion at the end of 1981 and is estimated to rise to $1,254.3 billion by the end of 1983. These amounts are more than twice as large as the permanent limit of $400 billion. As shown in table E-8, the debt subject to limit is much larger than the debt held by the public and is almost as large as the gross Federal debt. The debt subject to limit is so much larger than the debt held by the public because it includes Federal debt held by Government agencies. The small difference between debt subject to limit and gross Federal debt is mostly accounted for by agency debt not subject to the general limitation. FEDERAL FUNDS F I N A N C I N G AND THE CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT The year-to-year change in debt subject to limit, unlike the change in debt held by the public, is not determined principally by the size of the total Government deficit (that is, by the sum of the budget deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities). The trust fund surplus or deficit, which makes up part of the budget surplus or deficit, has no essential effect on the amount of debt that is subject to limit. This is explained below in a discussion that is more technical than the rest of this special analysis. The budget consists of two major groups of funds: Federal funds and trust funds.9 The trust funds collect certain taxes and other receipts to be used for specified purposes, such as paying social security or unemployment insurance benefits. The Federal funds comprise the rest of the budget. Their resources are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing and are used for the general purposes of the Government. The off-budget Federal entities make up a third group of fiscal operations, analogous to the Federal funds and trust 9 Data for Federal funds and trust funds are presented in Special Analysis C, "Funds in the Budget.' 27 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A funds groups. If the off-budget entities were included in the budget, they would be classified as Federal funds. When the Federal funds have a deficit, this deficit must generally be financed by borrowing. The borrowing is necessary regardless of whether the trust funds have a surplus. This is because the trust fund surpluses are mostly invested in securities issued by Federal funds, the Federal funds securities held by trust funds are treated as Federal debt, and therefore the trust fund surplus does not reduce the need for the Federal funds to issue debt in order to finance the Federal funds deficit. Federal funds borrowing consists almost exclusively of the Treasury selling debt securities, and these Treasury debt securities are all subject to the statutory limit. The deficits of the off-budget Federal entities are generally financed in the same way as the Federal funds deficit. Therefore, the Federal funds deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities generally have to befinancedby selling debt securities that are subject to the statutory limit; and these securities are sold to either the public, the trust funds, or certain Federal revolving funds or deposit funds. Table E-9. FEDERAL FUNDS FINANCING AND CHANGE IN DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY L I M I T 1 (In millions of dollars) Description Federal funds surplus or deficit ( - ) Deficit ( - ) of off-budget Federal entities Total, amount to be financed Means of financing other than borrowing: Decrease or increase ( - ) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease ( - ) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding etc Deposit fund balances2 . . Seigniorage on coins Total, means of financing other than borrowing Decrease or increase ( - ) in investments in Federal debt by Federal funds, off-budget entities, and deposit funds3 Increase or decrease ( - ) in Federal funds and off-budget entity debt not subject to limit Total, requirements for borrowing subject to debt limit Change in debt subject to limit but not part of Federal debt and adjustments Change in debt subject to limit 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 1985 estimate -64,749 -111,119 -106,940 -100,832 -103,161 -21,005 -19,689 -15,701 -14,285 -10,950 -85,754 -130,808 -122,641 -115,117 -114,111 -1,668 3,700 -3,845 2,125 450 660 -1,709 553 334 -1,621 516 744 797 -2,938 3,204 -771 744 797 -933 -2,641 -807 -467 -971 -33 -90,092 -131,216 -124,251 -114,373 -113,314 3 90,095 131,216 124,251 114,373 113,314 'Several amounts have been assumed to be zero during 1983-85 because they are usually small and cannot be estimated accurately. Does not include investment in Federal debt securities classified as debt held by the public. Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. 2 3 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table E-9 shows in detail the relationship of the change in debt subject to limit to the Federal funds deficit and the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities. The total of these deficits is an amount that has to be financed. Some relatively small portion may be financed by means other than borrowing, such as seigniorage and a decrease in those cash assets held by Federal funds and off-budget Federal entities (however, if the sum of these other means of financing is negative, then these other means comprise a further amount that has to be financed.)10 A small portion may be financed by the Federal funds or off-budget entities (or certain deposit funds11 ) selling their investments in Federal debt. Another small portion may be financed by these funds or entitites issuing debt that is not subject to the statutory limit. The remainder of the amount to be financed can only be financed by selling debt subject to the statutory limit. This ordinarily comprises most of the total. Thus, the sum of the deficits of the Federal funds and the offbudget Federal entities approximately determines the increase in debt subject to statutory limit. In 1981, for example, the total Federal funds and off-budget deficit to be financed was $85.8 billion. The means of financing other than borrowing required an additional $2.9 billion of financing by debt subject to limit, because of such reasons as a decrease in cash assets. The Federal funds, the off-budget entities, and certain deposit funds increased their holdings of Federal debt by $0.9 billion, which had to be financed by still further borrowing in the same way as their deficits had to be financed; and they decreased their debt outstanding that was not subject to limit by $0.5 billion, which had to be replaced by an equal amount of debt that was subject to limit. Therefore, a total of $90.1 billion had to be borrowed subject to the debt limit. The trust fund surplus does not have an explicit effect in table E-9. However, to the extent that trust fund surpluses are used to increase the trust fund holdings of univested cash assets instead of Federal debt securities, the debt subject to limit is reduced. This is because the cash available from the trust funds surplus can be used to finance Federal funds outlays without recording an increase in Federal debt. In table E-9 the increase in uninvested cash assets of the trust funds is recorded as an increase in the liabilities of Federal funds for checks outstanding, etc. (i.e., an increase in the liabilities of Federal funds to trust funds). This increases the Federal funds means of financing other than borrowing, which in turn reduces the requirement for borrowing subject to the statutory 10 The amounts for means of financing other than borrowing exclude the amounts attributable to trust funds. It is not known how the trust fund open book balances are divided between cash and monetary assets and liabilities for checks outstanding, etc. In table E - 9 they are all assumed to be in liabilities for checks outstanding, etc. 11 Only those deposit funds treated as Government accounts. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 29 limit. The trust fund uninvested cash assets do change from year to year, but they do not usually change a great deal. By law the trust fund surpluses must generally be invested in Federal debt, and during 1972-81 the increase in trust fund holdings of Federal debt equalled 97% of the cumulative trust fund surplus. Consequently, the effect of the trust fund surplus on debt subject to limit is minor. Since the trust fund holdings of Federal debt are included almost entirely in debt subject to limit, but not in debt held by the public, the amount of debt held by the public is substantially less than the amount of debt subject to limit. Since the trust funds as a group almost always have a surplus, the change in debt held by the public from one year to the next is almost always less than the change in debt subject to limit. As can be calculated from table E-8, during 1982 and 1983 the debt subject to limit is estimated to increase by $255.5 billion, whereas the debt held by the public is estimated to increase by $227.0 billion. The present analysis helps to demonstrate the difficulty in preventing a continual rise in the Federal debt. The structure of table E-2 showed that the Government would have to borrow from the public even if the budget were exactly balanced, because it would have to finance the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities. The structure of table E-9 shows that the debt subject to statutory limit would almost surely continue to rise even if the total Government deficit were exactly zero and, as a result, the debt held by the public remained constant (that is, even if the budget had a surplus and this surplus was large enough so that the budget and the offbudget entities were together just in balance). In order for the debt subject to limit to remain constant, the Federal funds portion of the budget must (as an approximation) have a surplus and this surplus must be large enough so that the Federal funds and the offbudget entities are together in balance. (The same condition must be met in order for the gross Federal debt to remain constant, since the gross Federal debt is approximately equal to debt subject to limit.) It is more difficult to have a balance in the Federal funds plus the deficit of the off-budget Federal entities than it is to have a balance in the budget plus the off-budget Federal entities, because the trust funds almost always have a surplus. This can be illustrated by comparing the borrowing from the public in table E-2 with the borrowing subject to the debt limit in table E-9. From 1982 to 1985, borrowing from the public decreases by $33.4 billion, in line with the decline in the total Government deficit. Table E-9 shows, however, that borrowing subject to the debt limit decreases by only $17.9 billion. This difference is primarily because a large part of the reduction in the total Government deficit is accounted for by an $18.7 billion increase in the trust 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 fund surplus. This reduces borrowing from the public by an equal amount but does not reduce the need to issue debt subject to the statutory limit. FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING The effect of the Government on borrowing in the credit market arises not only from its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also from its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. Federally assisted borrowing is of two principal types: Government-guaranteed borrowing, and borrowing by Governmentsponsored enterprises. Guaranteed borrowing consists of loans for which the Federal Government guarantees (or insures) the payment of the principal and/or interest in whole or in part. Guaranteed loans have diverse characteristics. The loans may be made to individuals, businesses, State and local governments, or foreign governments. The guaranteed obligation may be a loan made by a bank or other institutional lender, it may be a security sold in the capital market, or it may be a security sold to the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Guaranteed borrowing is another term for'guaranteed lending. Guaranteed loans include most loan asset sales made by Federal agencies. Loan asset sales occur when an agency makes a direct loan and then sells it. A guarantee by the selling agency is usually attached. Loan asset sales are offsets to the outlays of the agency that sells them. Therefore, if the selling agency is in the budget, the budget outlays caused by the direct loans are offset by the sale of the loan assets. In some cases the agency sells the direct loans themselves, and in other cases the agency sells securities (sometimes called participation certificates or certificates of beneficial ownership) that are backed by loans that the agency continues to hold and service. The certificates of beneficial ownership sold by the Farmers Home Administration (a budget agency) and the Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund (an off-budget Federal entity) would be classified as Federal debt according to the recommendations of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts.12 However, according to statute these certificates are required to be treated as loan assets instead of Federal debt. Since the certificates are guaranteed, they are classified as guaranteed loans. These certificates of beneficial ownership are currently sold almost entirely to the FFB, but some certificates sold by Farmers Home before FFB was established are outstanding and continue to mature. The net amount of sales to the FFB less repayments (i.e., the increase in certificates »Report of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1967), pp. 8, 47-48, and 54-55. 31 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A outstanding held by the FFB) is shown below for 1980-83 (in millions of dollars): 1980 actual Farmers Home Administration Rural Electrification and Telephone revolving fund 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 6,881 10,860 5,352 1,149 689 683 623 525 Loan guarantees are designed to allocate economic resources toward particular uses by providing credit at more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in the private market. The major use of loan guarantees is to support housing, but in recent years guarantees have increasingly been used for other purposes. As shown subsequently in table E - l l , guaranteed borrowing net of repayments (but including direct loans made by one Federal agency and guaranteed by another) was $49.0 billion in 1981 and is estimated to be $59.7 billion in 1982 and $58.0 billion in 1983. Special Analysis F presents detailed data on guaranteed loans and loan asset sales. The other type of federally assisted borrowing is borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises. They were established and chartered by the Federal Government to perform specific credit functions but are now entirely privately owned. The rule governing the budget treatment of these enterprises was established in 1967 in accordance with a recommendation by the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. The Commission, whose report led to the adoption of the unified budget, recommended that the budget exclude those Government-sponsored enterprises that are entirely privately owned.13 Therefore the transactions of these enterprises are not included within the Federal budget, and their debt is not part of gross Federal debt. The seven Government-sponsored credit enterprises are essentially financial intermediaries. They borrow in the securities market and lend their borrowed funds for specifically authorized purposes either directly or by purchasing loans originated by the private groups that they were established to assist. The borrowing programs of these enterprises are subject to Federal supervision. In addition, they all consult the Treasury Department, either by law or by custom, in planning their market offerings. The Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal Home Loan Banks are required to obtain Treasury approval of the terms and timing of specific offerings. The Student Loan Marketing Association (SLMA) borrowed exclusively from the Federal Financing Bank 13 Ibid., pp. 29-30. 32 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 from the time of FFB's establishment until May 1981.14 Since then SLMA has also sold notes to the public, without a guarantee, and beginning in 1982 plans to finance all of its increases in debt outstanding by borrowing from the public. Government sponsorship of these enterprises has given them various direct benefits. Their securities are legally eligible to be held for specified uses by federally regulated financial institutions, and they generally have certain tax exemptions. Furthermore, all of these enterprises have a history of successful financial performance. Hence, despite the absence of Federal guarantees, the obligations of these enterprises are sold at interest rates only a little higher than the rates on comparable Treasury issues. The three enterprises regulated by the Farm Credit Administration—the Banks for Cooperatives, Federal Intermediate Credit Banks, and Federal Land Banks—formerly borrowed on the market separately under their own names. Since January 1979, however, the Farm Credit banks have borrowed solely by issuing consolidated bonds. The operations of the Government-sponsored enterprises are not subject to the Federal budget review process; and the economic assumptions on which their borrowing estimates are based for 1982-83 are not necessarily the same as the Administration's economic forecast, which is used for the budget. In order to show the borrowing by this sector as a whole from the rest of the market, the total borrowing figures in table E-10 are calculated net of the borrowing by one Government-sponsored enterprise from another. Most of this adjustment is accounted for by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Banks or repaying its debt to them. Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises has recently risen to a much higher level than in earlier years. Until 1978 the largest amount of borrowing had been $14.9 billion in 1974. Borrowing increased sharply to $24.1 billion in 1978, however, and then grew further to $27.5 billion in 1980. Borrowing in 1981 expanded substantially to $38.7 billion, and the Government-sponsored enterprises estimate that it will increase substantially again to $49.6 billion in 1982 and $53.4 billion in 1983. This will be double the 1980 level. Sharp shifts in borrowing, such as these, are typical of the Government-sponsored sector as a whole. They generally arise from the operations of the three enterprises that borrow to support the housing mortgage market: the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB), and the 14 SLMA is the only Government-sponsored enterprise whose new securities can be guaranteed by the Government and therefore bought by the FFB. The Secretary of Education has authority to guarantee S L M A securities issued prior to October 1, 1984. 33 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table E-10. BORROWING BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (In millions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( - ) Description 1980 actual Housing and Urban Development: Federal National Mortgage Association Farm Credit Administration:1 Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Foundation for Education Assistance: Student Loan Marketing Association Total Less increase in holdings of debt issued by Government-sponsored enterprises Total, borrowing by sored enterprises 1 Government-spon- 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Debt outstanding end 1983 estimate 6,347 4,342 11,646 11,657 79,991 1,542 3,536 7,076 737 1,921 6,819 1,093 2,882 6,842 1,136 3,502 7,494 11,351 27,666 55,411 6,454 3,141 21,029 1,847 3,662 20,948 4,075 23,460 65,365 67,752 1,070 2,223 1,603 1,543 7,713 29,165 38,917 48,676 52,867 315,249 1,691 230 -882 -500 3,170 27,473 38,687 49,558 53,367 312,079 The debt represented by consolidated bonds is attributed to the respective Farm Credit banks. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC). The degree of tightness in the mortgage market sometimes varies a good deal, and during periods of high and rising interest rates these enterprises usually increase their lending and borrowing substantially. This condition has led to much of the rise in the level of Government-sponsored borrowing during recent years. The $11.2 billion increase in sponsored borrowing in 1981 was more than fully accounted for by the $14.6 billion rise in FHLB borrowing. The FHLB increased its advances to member savings institutions, primarily savings and loan associations, which lend most of their funds for new mortgages. The $17.9 billion of higher advances were offset by only $3.3 billion of higher repayments. Except for SLMA, the other Government-sponsored enterprises reduced their borrowing in 1981. In 1982 the $10.9 increase in estimated borrowing arises from a $30.6 billion increase in mortgage purchases by the FHLMC and FNMA. This more than offsets the $14.7 billion decrease in net advances (new advances less repayments) by the FHLB. This decrease in net advances is due to an increase in repayments; new advances to member savings institutions increase moderately. In 1983 the $3.8 billion increase in Government-sponsored borrowing is led by a $5.2 billion further increase in mortgage purchases by the FHLMC. The other sponsored enterprises, on balance, estimate a small further increase in borrowing. 34 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 During 1981-83 nearly three-quarters of the estimated borrowing is done by the three Government-sponsored enterprises that primarily support the mortgage market. They account for a higher percentage of sponsored borrowing in these years than they have on average during the past. The Federal Government provides a different kind of assistance to State and local government borrowing than it does through loan guarantees and Government-sponsored enterprises. It exempts the interest on State and local debt from Federal income tax. This reduces the interest rate these governments have to pay and encourages them to borrow larger amounts. Tax exemption has also been extended to certain bonds nominally issued by a State or local government to raise funds for private purposes. These private purpose bonds, such as industrial development bonds, now comprise about half of all new long-term, tax-exempt issues. In 1981 the total tax-exempt borrowing estimated in the Federal Reserve flow-offunds accounts was $25.6 billion, of which $1.1 billion was also guaranteed by the Government. Tax-exempt borrowing is discussed further in Special Analysis F, "Federal Credit Programs," and, from a different perspective, in Special Analysis G, "Tax Expenditures/' TOTAL FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING Table E - l l summarizes net Federal and federally assisted borrowing. Federal borrowing from the public is presented in total. Guaranteed borrowing and borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises are presented both as total amounts for the sector as a whole and as net amounts. The latter were adjusted in order to remove double counting in the aggregation of total Federal and federally assisted borrowing. Double counting would otherwise occur when a Federal agency or a Government-sponsored enterprise bought (or sold) a Federal or federally assisted debt security. This is because borrowing would occur both when the security was initially sold and when the Federal agency or Government-sponsored enterprise borrowed in order to finance its purchase. Almost one-half of Federal and federally assisted borrowing during 1981-83 is made up of Federal borrowing to finance the budget deficit. Federal borrowing also finances the off-budget deficit, most of which is accounted for by the Federal Financing Bank's purchases of guaranteed obligations. As shown in table E - l l , the FFB is estimated to buy over one-quarter of the total increase in guaranteed obligations outstanding during these years. Since the FFB finances these purchases by borrowing from the Treasury, which in turn borrows from the public, these transactions substitute Federal borrowing in the market for guaranteed borrowing. Federal borrowing for all purposes during 1981-83 comprises 55% 35 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S A Table E - l l . NET BORROWING BY GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT-GUARANTEED BORROWERS, AND GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (In billions of dollars) Debt outstanding end 1983 estimate Borrowing or repayment ( - ) Description Federal borrowing from the public 1 Guaranteed borrowing 2 Less increase in guaranteed loans held by Federal agencies: Federal Financing Bank Government National Mortgage Association Net guaranteed borrowing Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises3 Less increase in holdings of Federal debt Less increase in Government-sponsored debt held by Federal agencies: Federal Financing Bank Less increase in holdings of guaranteed loans:4 Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Farm Credit Banks Student Loan Marketing Association Net Government-sponsored borrowing Total, Federal and federally assisted borrowing 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1981 actual 79.3 115.4 108.0 1,021.4 49.0 59.7 58.0 513.6 16.2 12.1 111.2 - . 5 - . 6 3.1 28.0 44.0 46.6 399.3 38.7 49.6 53.4 312.1 - . 5 .6 .2 2.7 21.0 * 5.0 2.0 .7 2.2 .9 1.6 * * * - . 1 - . 1 - . 1 42.3 .1 .8 * * * * .3 .9 1.5 2.7 34.8 46.6 50.1 258.5 142.1 206.0 204.7 1,679.2 >pju IMIIIIUM Ul ICOO. 1 See table E - l . Borrowing from the public in 1982 excludes the change in debt held by the public due to the proposed legislaiton under which the ownership of an estimated $3.6 billion of debt would be transferred from the railroad retirement account to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation as of September 30, 1982. 2 This line is the same as "guaranteed loans (net)" in table F-6 of Special Analysis F. To avoid double counting, it is calculated net of guarantees of loan previously guaranteed and guarantees of Federal debt. "Net guaranteed borrowing" in this table is the same as "primary guaranteed loans" in table F-6. 3 gee table E-10 4 The increase in holdings of guaranteed loans by the Student Loan Marketing Association is not subtracted out, because these loans are ultimately financed by Federal borrowing (through the FFB) and therefore are classified as direct loans rather than as guaranteed loans. of total Federal and federally assisted borrowing; Federal debt held by the public at the end of 1983 is 61% of the total Federal and federally assisted debt outstanding. The following chart depicts the trends in Federal and federally assisted borrowing from 1966 to 1983. The series are volatile, and the fluctuations are dominated by Federal borrowing. These fluctuations are primarily driven by the Federal deficit. Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing fell sharply in 1974 and, to a lesser extent, in 1977 and 1979, because of the large drop in the deficit in these years. Total borrowing rose markedly during recessions, increasing from $24.2 billion in 1974 to $98.1 billion in 1976 and increasing from $80.8 billion in 1979 to $123.5 billion in 1980 and $142.1 billion in 1981. Federal and federally assisted borrowing is estimated to increase still further in 1982, with substantial increases spread across Federal borrowing, guaranteed borrowing, and Government-sponsored borrowing. In 1983, however, all three 36 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 types of Federal and federally assisted borrowing are estimated to be further restrained, and the total is expected to level off. As the chart shows, Federal and federally assisted borrowing is now a great deal higher than a decade ago. Much of the increase parallels the growth in the economy and in the total funds raised by the non-financial sector through borrowing. However, total Federal and federally assisted borrowing has increased as a proportion of the total funds raised. This proportion increased from 17% during 1960-69 to 21% during the first half of the 1970's and 28% during the second half. In 1980 and 1981 the proportion was higher still, reaching 36% and 35% in these 2 years, respectively. Thus Government programs have recently influenced the allocation of funds raised in financial markets more than they did in the preceding years. 37 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A BUDGET FINANCING AND OUTSTANDING DEBT (In millions of dollars) BUDGET FINANCING 1982 estimate 1981 actual -57,932 -21,005 -98,578 -19,689 -78,936 -118,267 -1,668 3,700 -1,301 2,125 450 329 -1,709 553 Budget surplus or deficit ( - ) Deficit ( - ) , off-budget Federal entities.. Total deficit ( - ) Means of financing other than borrowing from the public: Decrease or increase ( - ) in cash and other monetary assets.. Increase or decrease ( - ) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc.1 Deposit fund balances Seigniorage on coins -393 2,873 -79,329 -115,394 -3,606 79,329 119,000 Total, means of financing other than borrowing from the public.. Total requirements for borrowing from the public Transfer of debt holdings2 Change in debt held by the public.. 73,292 2,417 3,620 Nonbank investors Commercial banks Federal Reserve System.. OUTSTANDING DEBT, END OF YEAR 1980 actual Gross Federal debt: Debt issued by Treasury Debt issued by other agencies 907,701 6,616 997,855 6,086 1,129,114 5,072 1,253,420 4,985 Total gross Federal debt Held by: Government agencies The public 914,317 1,003,941 1,134,186 1,258,405 199,212 715,105 209,507 794,434 220,752 913,434 236,971 1,021,434 Federal Reserve System Others 120,846 594,259 124,466 669,968 DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMITATION, END OF YEAR Debt issued by Treasury Treasury debt not subject to limitation Agency debt subject to limitation Total debt subject to statutory limitation 3 . 907,701 -608 1,629 997,855 -607 1,570 1,129,114 -607 1,527 1,253,420 -607 1,472 908,723 998,818 1,130,034 1,254,285 1 Includes military payment certificates, accrued interest (less unamortized discount) on Treasury debt, and as an offsetting change in assets, certain collections in transit. 2 As of September 30, 1982, $3,606 million of Federal debt held by trust funds are estimated to be reclassified as debt held by the public, because under proposed legislation the ownership of the assets of the railroad retirement account is to be transferred to a newly created private rail industry pension corporation. 3 The statutory debt limit is permanently established at $400 billion. Public Law 97-49 temporarily increased the statutory debt limit to $1,079.8 billion through September 30,1982. Legislation is required to change the limitation. SPECIAL ANALYSISA146 FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. FOR REFERENCE Do Not Take From This Room SPECIAL ANALYSIS F FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS Federal and federally assisted credit programs play a significant role in the functioning of the Nation's economy and financial markets. This credit assistance is primarily in four forms: direct loans from the Federal Government, Federal guarantees of private lending, lending by privately owned Government-sponsored enterprises, and access to tax-exempt credit. Much like Federal expenditures on goods and services or transfer payments, credit programs change the allocation of resources and the distribution of income. But these programs are not without cost. Recent experience has shown that when used in excess these programs begin to preempt private sector investment resources, and this absorption of much needed capital has an inhibiting effect on productivity and economic growth. Moreover, Federal credit distorts the market's assessment of true risk and return. An element of subsidy is involved in any Federal credit program, since assistance is given on terms or conditions more favorable than would have occurred in private capital markets. A subsidy is provided, in general, because the Federal Government accepts risks that lenders in private capital markets are unwilling to bear or would bear only at higher interest rates than the Federal Government charges. Because interest subsidies reduce the cost of borrowing to the recipient, they are equivalent to cash grants to the borrower. In a wide variety of instances, Federal assistance of comparable value can be provided either with cash payments, credit assistance, or tax incentives. The subsidy is most easily recognized when Federal credit assistance provides an interest rate lower than could be provided in private capital markets. The subsidy is less visible if the Federal credit assistance provides for longer maturities, higher loan-to-value ratios, or greater liquidity than would have been available in private capital markets. Direct loans are payments of cash, secured by a promise to repay the Government. The promise to repay may be in the form of a mortgage, a bond, a debenture, or a promissory note. Loan guarantees occur when a Government agency enters into a firm commitment to use Government funds as necessary to repay a lender upon M A K * W A b M i i N u i U H CULLfcl* JUH - 9 -roiNJtfl P S I B R A K > 3 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 default by the borrower.1 The amount of the guarantee may be less than the full principal of the loan and may include the guarantee of interest. Loan insurance is a type of guarantee in which a Government agency operates a program of pooled risks, pledging the use of insurance premiums to secure a lender against default on the part of a borrower.2 Tax-exempt bonds are obligations with tax exemption on the interest income they produce, which allows them to be sold at interest rates below those for taxable securities. The subsidy is the difference between the tax-exempt and taxable interest rates. This special analysis compiles basic information on Government credit programs and plans over the budget period. It summarizes major trends in the credit activity of the Federal Government and Government-sponsored enterprises and presents the estimates of direct loans and guaranteed loans by major program groupings, agencies, and enterprises from 1981 to 1983. Reporting on Federal credit activities in the budget has expanded considerably in recent years. Part 3 of the Budget contains aggregated data on the totals of the credit budget, covering all direct loan and loan guarantee programs. Part 5 of the Budget presents information about major credit programs in the context of meeting national needs. Part 5 also shows the lending activities of the Federal Financing Bank according to function. Part 6 examines the debt transactions of the Federal Government, the outlays of offbudget Federal entities, loan guarantees, and Government-sponsored enterprises. Part 7 describes the credit budget and its place in the budget process. The Budget Appendix shows details and descriptions of the lending activities of individual budget accounts. TRENDS AND DIRECTIONS Table F-l summarizes data on Federal participation in domestic credit markets during the last decade. It measures the volume of Federal and federally assisted credit relative to total lending and borrowing in U.S. credit markets by nonfinancial sectors.3 This table uses two measures of Federal participation—lending (funds advanced) and borrowing (funds raised). The total amount of funds advanced under Federal auspices has risen fourfold in the last decade, reaching $86.5 billion in 1981 and 1 A loan guarantee can be thought of as the action of attaching a Federal guarantee to a loan. A guaranteed loan refers to the loan, usually contracted in the private sector, with a Federal guarantee attached. In some cases, however, one Federal agency guarantees a loan, and another Federal agency makes the loan. 2 For the remainder of this analysis, the term loan guarantees will include insurance. The Federal Government is, in essence, the co-signer of a federally-guaranteed loan. 3 The Government-sponsored enterprises are financial intermediaries, whereas the data for total funds raised are defined as only including nonfinancial sectors. Financial institutions are excluded to avoid double counting. Nevertheless, the Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing, as well as Federal borrowing from the public and guaranteed loans, is properly compared with total funds raised. This is because the Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing stands as a proxy for the borrowing by nonfinancial sectors that is intermediated by the sponsored enterprises. The Federal assistance to Government-sponsored enterprises assists the ultimate nonfinancial borrowers whose loans are purchased or otherwise financed by the sponsored enterprises. SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 5 is estimated to reach $113.9 billion in 1983. The Federal participation rate for total funds advanced in U.S. credit markets reached a high for this decade of 23.3% in 1980, falling only slightly, to 21.2%, in 1981. The other measure of Federal participation is funds raised (borrowed) under Federal auspices, which includes funds raised for Federal and Government-sponsored credit programs as well as funds raised to finance the Federal deficit. This Federal participation rate is much more volatile, ranging from 13.0% to 40.6% of total borrowing over the past decade. The volatility is due primarily to swings in the budget deficit. This participation rate peaked in 1976. Table F - l . FEDERAL PARTICIPATION IN DOMESTIC CREDIT MARKETS (Dollars in billions) Actual Total funds advanced in U.S. credit markets 1 Advanced under Federal auspices Direct loans: On-budget Off-budget Guaranteed loans Government-sponsored enterprise loans Federal participation rate (percent) markets 1 Total funds raised in U.S. credit Raised under Federal auspices Federal borrowing from public Borrowing for guaranteed loans Government-sponsored enterprise borrowing Federal participation rate (percent) 1 2 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 151.9 22.0 198.5 26.1 186.7 25.5 174.4 27.0 3.0 18.9 0.1 14.5 0.9 0.1 16.6 8.5 13.1 3.3 0.8 10.3 11.2 13.7 151.9 39.1 19.4 18.9 0.7 25.7 198.5 46.5 19.3 16.6 10.6 23.4 186.7 24.2 3.0 10.3 10.9 13.0 Nonfinanciai sectors, excluding equities. Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds Accounts. Not estimated. Estimates TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 241.8 26.9 65.0 6.7 310.8 36.7 378.9 58.4 412.9 72.9 342.5 79.9 407.8 86.5 114.9 113.9 5.8 7.0 8.6 5.6 15.5 4.2 6.7 11.1 4.9 11.1 1.1 2.6 -0.1 3.1 10.3 2.6 9.0 13.5 11.7 11.8 8.6 11.2 13.4 25.2 15.4 6.0 13.6 25.2 28.1 17.7 9.5 14.7 31.6 24.1 23.3 5.2 20.9 28.0 32.4 21.2 4.5 16.4 44.0 50.1 1.9 12.3 46.6 53.1 174.4 64.8 50.9 8.6 5.3 37.2 241.5 98.1 82.9 11.1 4.1 40.6 65.0 19.3 18.0 -0.1 1.4 29.7 310.8 79.0 53.5 13.5 12.0 25.4 378.9 93.9 59.1 13.4 21.4 24.8 412.9 80.7 33.6 25.2 21.9 19.5 342.5 123.5 70.5 31.6 21.4 36.1 407.8 142.1 79.3 28.0 34.8 34.8 206.0 115.4 44.0 46.6 204.7 108.0 46.6 50.1 (2) (2) (2) (2) 1983 (2) (2) (2) (2) H ffi M W C u o M H ^ O W CO O > r K! M > SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 7 Another form of Federal Government involvement in the credit market is the granting of tax exemption for the interest income on State and local government debt securities. This includes securities that finance both general government and private purpose securities, such as industrial development bonds. Tax exempt status induces purchasers of these securities to accept lower yields than they demand for taxable securities. In this way, State and local governments receive an interest subsidy, and the Federal Government forgoes an amount of tax revenues. Because of the interest subsidy and its effect on the allocation of credit towards State and local borrowers, this tax exemption has many of the characteristics of the forms of Federal participation in credit markets shown in Table F-l. It differs, however, in that the choice of borrowers is not governed by the regulations of a Federal or federally chartered entity. The only means of Federal control over this lending is revision of the U.S. tax code. Table F-la supplements Table F - l to show the growth of tax exempt credit, and how the Federal participation rates would change if tax exempt credit were included. Table F - l a — FEDERAL PARTICIPATION IN DOMESTIC CREDIT MARKETS, INCLUDING TAX EXEMPT CREDIT (Dollars in billions) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 TQ 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Tax exempt credit 13.7 12.2 16.5 11.4 20.9 3.8 20.5 23.5 20.5 20.4 24.5 t1) (M Funds advanced under Federal auspices, plus tax exempt credit Federal participation rate, including tax exempt credit (percent) 35.7 23.5 38.3 19.3 42.0 22.5 38.4 22.0 47.8 19.8 10.5 16.2 57.2 18.4 81.9 21.6 93.4 22.6 100.2 29.3 111.0 27.2 t ) t1) 0) f1) Funds raised under Federal auspices, plus tax exempt credit Federal participation rate, including tax exempt credit (percent) 52.7 34.7 58.7 29.6 40.7 21.8 76.2 43.7 119.0 49.2 23.1 35.6 99.5 32.0 117.3 31.0 101.3 24.5 143.9 42.0 166.6 40.8 t1) 1 Not estimated. 1 i1) t1) 9 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A The net funds advanced in a given year are simply the difference between the amount of loans outstanding at the beginning and at the end of that year. The accompanying chart shows the growth of Federal and federally-assisted credit outstanding in the last decade. Since 1971, the total amount of loans outstanding has risen by $217 billion, to $676 billion in 1981, an increase of over 300%. $ BMkms $ Billions 1,000 1,000 Loans by GovernmentSponsored Enterprises 300 -800 -600 600 Guaranteed Loans 400 200- -400 -200 Direct Loans (on and off budget) 1971 73 75 77 79 81 Fiscal Years 83 Blllf •0 Estimate T H E CREDIT BUDGET Two years ago budgeting for Federal credit was significantly improved through the initiation of the credit budget. This framework has enabled the annual activity of many loan programs to be controlled for the first time, and has provided a means of making decisions on credit programs in the context of all Federal credit and other budget activity. The credit budget supplements the regular budget during the executive formulation and transmittal of the President's program and during subsequent congressional action. It achieves control over individual program levels through appropriation bill language limiting the gross amount of direct loan obligation and loan guarantee commitments to be extended. The credit budget consists of all direct loan obligations and loan guarantee commitments of Federal agencies. It is based on four principal concepts, all of which are designed to present the total 360-700 0 - 8 2 - 2 ( P a r t F) 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 amount of credit activity clearly and to facilitate legislative and administrative control. First, the credit budget makes no distinction between on- and offbudget entities. All direct loan and loan guarantee programs of the Government are included. Second, the credit budget totals are based on gross levels of credit activity, without offsets for repayments. By excluding repayments, the credit budget measures the current level of program activity, and thereby enables control to be based on new activity, over which the Government has discretion. Third, the credit budget is based on direct loan obligations and guaranteed loan commitments. Obligations for direct loans are contracts requiring that the Government disburse a loan immediately or at some future time. Commitments for guaranteed loans are agreements entered into by the Government to guarantee a loan when the borrower or lender fulfills stipulated preconditions. Both concepts define the point at which the Government becomes legally bound to extend credit, which is the point most amenable to executive and legislative control. The relationship of obligations and commitments to new direct loans and guaranteed loans is loosely analogous to the relationship of budget authority to outlays. Fourth, guaranteed loan totals are based on the full principal of the loan, even if the contingent liablity (i.e., the amount covered by the guarantee) is partial. In past budgets the guaranteed loan totals only included the contingent liabilities. This revision allows the credit budget to reflect the full impact of Federal credit on the economy more accurately. There are only a few programs where less than the full principal is guaranteed. The following table shows the differences between the contingent liability and full principal in loan guarantees outstanding. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONTINGENT LIABILITY AND FULL PRINCIPAL FOR GUARANTEED LOANS (In millions of dollars) 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 48,758 105,868 54,609 118,574 61,359 133,225 1981 actual Veterans Administration mortgage insurance-. Contingent liability Full principal Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance: Contingent liability Full principal All other loan guarantees programs-. Contingent liability Full principal' 131,989 135,445 148,208 152,210 168,131 172,840 262,249 264,092 317,600 319,732 368,749 370,989 Total outstanding: Contingent liability Full principal 442,996 505,405 520,417 590,516 598,239 677,054 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 11 Some netting adjustments are required in calculating the credit budget totals to eliminate double-counting of loans involved in intragovernmental financing transactions. First, secondary guarantees, i.e. guarantees of loans that have a prior guarantee from another agency, are deducted from the gross guaranteed loan total. Second, guarantees by one agency of direct loans disbursed by another agency, usually the Federal Financing Bank (FFB), are deducted from the guaranteed loan total and shown only as direct loans. Third loan assets sold by agencies to the FFB, and guarantees of those loan assets, are not included in credit budget totals, because the original loans are already recorded as direct loans of the originating agency. Appropriation bill limitations.—Limitations on new direct loan obligations and guaranteed loan commitments are proposed for enactment in the appropriation language for the budget accounts that support credit programs. Unlike appropriations of budget authority, appropriation bill limitations are not the source of authority to make obligations or commitments; rather, they place a ceiling on that authority. Because authority is provided in authorizing legislation, and, for direct loan programs, in appropriations of budget authority, these programs can extend credit even if there is no appropriation bill limitation. Without the appropriation bill limitations the annual activity of many credit programs would not be limited by annual congressional action and would in no case be limited in the context of total credit activity. Appropriation bill limitations are proposed for programs amounting to about three-fourths of the credit budget totals. The remainder are programs for which a limitation on annual activity is deemed unsuitable. Several kinds of programs are exempt from appropriation limitations. For these programs, control is generally exercised through authorizing legislation. The first type of exemption is for clear entitlements to qualified applicants, such as veterans mortgage guarantees. The second are programs that provide insurance against unforseen circumstance, such as insurance of bank deposits against bank failure. These two exemptions preclude the appearance of control where none can exist without changing the basic nature of the programs. The programs in these two categories are similar to those budgetary activities considered relatively uncontrollable, many of which are also not acted on in annual appropriations bills. The third exemption is for intragovernmental financing transactions, such as guarantees of certificates of beneficial ownership issued by the FmHA and all activity of the Federal Financing Bank. Since the loans they finance are controlled through annual appropriation bill limitations, they need not be limited at the financing stage. 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Fourth, direct loans to cover claims on defaulted guaranteed loans are exempted for all credit programs. Payment of these default claims is mandatory. Several other programs are exempted because of circumstances unique to the program itself. Table F-2 provides a complete listing of programs proposed to be exempt in the 1983 credit budget. 13 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table F-2 —CREDIT BUDGET PROGRAMS EXEMPT FROM APPROPRIATION BILL LIMITATIONS (In millions of dollars) Guaranteed loan commitments Direct loan obligations 1981 actual Programs under appropriations control Programs exempt from appropriations control: Entitlement and mandatory programs: CCC price supports Public housing Veterans mortgage insurance Other veterans program Guaranteed student loans Insurance programs.Credit union share insurance Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Diplomatic emergencies Other policy exemptions: Public Law 480 export sales CCC export credit Federal Highway Administration College housing loans Tennessee Valley Authority NASA satellite leases Financing transactions: Guarantees and repurchases of CBO's (FmHA) Federal Financing Bank Defaulting guaranteed loans: Foreign military sales credit FHA mortgage insurance Small Business Administration Guaranteed student loans VA mortgage insurance All other Programs previously exempt from appropriations control. Subtotal, exempt programs Less: Deductions to eliminate double counting Total, credit budget.. 1 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1981 actual 16,649 16,344 14,812 77,582 5,849 2,196 8,554 1,500 6,600 248 120 154 1,000 19,343 11,719 7,762 6 1 3 1 5 3 1 821 754 767 13 71 102 19 344 83 32 121 2,015 80 3,624 111 4,516 7,652 6,749 14,636 30,269 28,377 24,701 164 400 871 238 738 55 9,193 170 307 712 410 756 82 3,329 180 266 513 548 780 47 15,816 55,753 53,180 42,527 75,147 15,208 13,173 8,346 76,214 57,194 56,351 48,994 76,515 DIRECT L O A N S Direct loans are made by both on-budget agencies and off-budget Federal entities. They are financed from a variety of sources including taxation, borrowing, and loan repayments.4 (For a discussion of off-budget Federal entities, see Part 6 of the Budget) Table F-3 shows loan activity by the headings "obligations" and "loans". Obligations are firm written agreements by the Government to extend direct loans. Obligations in a given year need not always result in an equal volume of new direct loans since the conversion of obligations to loans can take time, and some prospective borrow4 Taxation and borrowing are in many cases indistinguishable sources of funds for a specific program. However, the treatment of loan repayments can differ from program to program. 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 ers to whom obligations are made do not convert the obligations into borrowing. Loans, in turn, are the loans actually made in the specified year. New direct loans, shown in the top line of the right hand column for each program, are the sum of disbursements to make new loans and disbursements to pay guarantee claims.5 Net outlays are equal to the sum of all transactions that alter the column of loans outstanding, including new loans less repayments 6 of loans, liquidation of collateral, loan writeoffs, and sales of loan assets. Net outlays of direct loans are also equal to the difference between the volume of loans outstanding at the end of the year and the volume outstanding at the beginning of the year.7 Net outlays of direct loans by on-budget Federal agencies are counted as budget outlays. Net outlays of direct loans by off-budget Federal entities, although similar to on-budget net outlays, are excluded by law from the budget totals. Net outlays of direct loans on-budget decreased by $4.3 billion from 1980 to 1981 to $5.2 billion, and are expected to fall still farther, to $1.9 billion by 1983. The decreases are the result of a general reduction in lending activity, particularly by the Small Business Administration, whose direct business loan program is proposed to be ended, and by the Government National Mortgage Association, whose mortgage purchase activities will end in 1982. Another contribution to low net loan outlays in 1983 results from the sale of a large amount of housing loan assets to the public by the Veterans Administration and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. 5 Upon default of a loan guarantee, the Government assumes ownership of the guaranteed loan. The lender is reimbursed for the amount of the guarantee, while the borrower owes the Federal Government directly rather than the original lender. Claims paid under insurance or guarantee programs are considered as direct loans until the acquired loans or collateral are paid off or liquidated. Proceeds of liquidation are considered repayments and realized losses are writeoffs. 6 Loan repayments and receipts from the sale of loans are generally netted from gross loan disbursements in determining net loan outlays, rather than being counted as budget receipts. 7 The volume of loans outstanding is a stock concept referring to the total of loans that have ever been made, less principal repaid to date, loans written off and receipts from the sale of loans. Net loan outlays is a flow concept, the difference in loans outstanding at the beginning and at the end of a particular year. Table F - 6 .GUARANTEEDLOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Obligations Agency or program 1981 actual 1982 estimate Loans 1983 estimate 1981 1982 actual estimate ON-BUDGET AGENCIES Funds Appropriated to the President: International Security Assistance: Economic Support Fund New transactions.. 274 Net outlays 216 895 Outstandings Foreign Military Sales Credit 920 New transactions.. Net outlays 1,919 694 4,553 5,247 671 -130 925 -172 522 New transactions.. 5 Net outlays 5 Outstandings International development assistance 737 512 694 Outstandings 2 ... Other programs 691 New transactions.. 401 403 403 Net outlays Outstandings 40 45 429 166 11,874 379 66 11,940 Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration: Agricultural Credit.. New transactions.. 9,229 Net outlays 1,196 7,218 Outstandings Rural Housing.. New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings 1... 6,079 6,369 3,895 9.035 -898 8,369 -800 1.036 236 5,906 6,304 825 401 -lOOO -424 Table F - 6 .GUARANTEEDLOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Obligations Agency or program Rural Development 1981 actual New transactions.. Net outlays 1982 estimate 1,669 1,046 1983 estimate 948 New transactions.. 5,872 6,600 Net outlays Outstandings Public Law 480 long-term export credits New transactions.. 821 754 Net outlays Outstandings Rural Electrification Administration New transactions.. Net outlays 17 New transactions.. 55 Net outlays Outstandings National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration New transactions.. Net outlays 11 Outstandings Health and Human Services: Health Resources Administration.. New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings 1... 1,678 30 767 30 1,560 -43 285 242 5,861 8,720 -920 1,709 6,160 7,869 781 754 544 533 7,718 8,250 3 Outstandings Commerce: Economic Development Administration 1982 estimate -50 Outstandings Commodity Credit Corporation 1981 actual 5 3 5 3 8 137 141 72 78 996 1,073 38 31 38 28 71 99 27 20 13 848 12 860 Other Health programs Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing Other HUD programs Government National Mortgage Association New transactions... 33 54 40 Other Treasury: Education programs 88 72 76 2,196 1,500 1,000 New transactions.. 2,196 1,500 90 Outstandings 184 159 1,496 1,288 New transactions.. 1,398 1,273 766 2,006 730 Outstandings 8,479 9,209 1,836 1,993 2,172 4 2,124 159 1,163 -643 8,565 2,023 -516 -642 4,333 3,817 3,175 40 82 123 Net outlays 22 43 101 Outstandings 442 485 586 New transactions.. New transactions.. 38 83 123 143 112 76 Net outlays 143 112 76 Outstandings 514 626 702 New transactions.. 39 37 144 44 57 43 89 57 Net outlays 35 70 50 Outstanding 403 473 523 109 114 114 New transactions.. 138 344 100 Outstandings -25 Net outlays New transactions.. 4 -17 Net outlays Net outlays Veterans Administration: Housing loans and default claims 31 Outstandings Outstandings Transportation: Railroad programs 35 25 Net outlays Interior 45 Net outlays New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings 738 757 781 9 18 17 3,415 3,433 3,450 742 124 1,846 758 -33 1,813 783 -1,048 764 co hd H O > r > >r U2 in h-H Table F - 6 .GUARANTEEDLOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Obligations Agency or program 1981 actual Insurance policy and other loans. New transactions.. 248 1982 Loans 1983 estimate estimate 120 Net outlays 155 Outstandings District of Columbia. New transactions.. Net outlays 214 225 145 Outstandings Export-Import Bank.. New transactions.. 5,431 Net outlays 4,400 3,830 Outstandings Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.. New transactions.. Net outlays 266 Outstandings Foundation for Education Assistance. New transactions.. 421 589 Net outlays Outstandings National Consumer Cooperative Bank2 1982 actual estimate 120 248 92 1,485 1,477 214 225 1,567 1,684 3,512 3,603 15,802 17,523 -45 -22 107 2,037 -8 117 1,721 New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings Federal Home Loan Bank Board., 1981 New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings 1 ... 130 11 548 431 409 266 187 — 74 844 770 484 397 621 537 5,688 6,225 43 32 59 11 -59 { National Credit Union Administration New transactions.. Net outlays 75 336 478 Outstandings Small Business Administration: Business and investment loans New transactions.. Net outlays 871 712 554 New transactions.. Net outlays 1,522 640 440 Outstandings Tennessee Valley Authority New transactions.. Net outlays 102 83 478 116 239 358 789 706 2,703 2,861 123 158 119 601 — 74 2,787 1,100 -144 1,652 590 -414 6,444 6,300 5,886 102 Outstandings United States Railway Association (Conrail) 336 1 349 Outstandings Disaster loans 75 83 325 99 58 59 198 256 315 1,000 1,000 1,000 13 New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings Other agencies and programs New transactions.. 18 Net outlays Outstandings Subtotal, on-budget agencies New transactions.. 40,857 39,861 31,754 5 145 99 5 -26 73 39,630 40,360 35,205 -14 -46 1,860 5,153 4,435 91,287 95,722 97,581 700 1,089 1,125 1,000 185 9,529 149 9,641 185 9,713 185 Net outlays Outstandings OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES Rural electrification and telephone revolving fund Rural Telephone Bank New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings New transactions.. 1,100 160 1,100 185 43 112 72 <x> Table F - 3 . DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Obligations Agency or program 1981 actual 1982 estimate Loans 1983 estimate Net outlays Outstandings.. Federal Financing Bank.. New transactions.. Net outlays 30,269 28,377 24,701 Outstandings United States Railway Association- Less loan asset purchases by the Federal Financing Bank 3 . 1982 estimate 140 175 173 1,071 1,246 1,419 30,269 28,377 24,701 20,956 16,217 82,911 99,127 17 -220 164 1 -106 58 31,523 29,688 Net outlays 20,920 16,397 Outstandings 93,675 110,072 New transactions.. Net outlays 17 Outstandings Subtotal, off-budget Federal entities.. 1981 actual New transactions.. New transactions.. Net outlays 31,545 29,663 25,586 15,208 13,173 U46 15,208 13,173 57,194 56,351 48,994 55,945 56,875 26,073 20,832 184,962 205,794 12,071 111,198 Outstandings Grand total, net direct loans.. New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings Estimates of outstandings do not include deferred interest. As of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981, the National Consumer Cooperative Bank is a private organization. After 1982 it's new loans will no longer be assets of the Federal Government. To avoid double counting, new loan assets purchased from agencies by the Federal Financing Bank are deducted. The amounts of the loan assets are already recorded as direct loans by the originating agency. This deduction affects new transactions only. 1 2 3 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 21 L O A N ASSET SALES AND OTHER L O A N OFFSETS Loan asset sales are sales of direct loans to the public or the FFB. In most cases, the agency selling the loan also guarantees it. In the unified and credit budgets, loan asset sales are treated as offsets to agency outlays, which is the same way that loan repayments are treated. Loan asset sales reduce the agency's outlay totals, and if the agency is on-budget, reduce total budget outlays. After the sale, the loan is held privately or by a Federal account other than the original seller (usually an off-budget Federal entity), but the Federal Government continues to bear the risk of default of the borrower. Traditionally, loan asset sales meant selling of title to the loans to the public. However, since the creation of the FFB, most loan assets are sold by on-budget accounts to the off-budget FFB, converting them from direct loans on-budget to loans off-budget. The largest volume of loan assets are certificates of beneficial ownership (CBO's) sold by the Farmers Home Administration and Rural Electrification Administration to support their direct loan programs. CBO's are backed by pools of direct loans, rather than by an individual loan. When a CBO is sold, the ownership of the specific loans is retained by the originating agency, and the agency continues to incur the servicing costs and to fully assume the risk of default on the loans. The President's Commission on Budget Concepts recommended that the sale of such securities be treated as borrowing, arguing that, as a means of financing outlays, there is no difference in substance between an agency selling securities labeled "certificates of beneficial ownership," the same agency selling securities labeled "debt" and the Treasury selling securities labeled "debt." In certain cases, however, legislation requires that it be treated instead as the sale of loan assets. Another form of loan asset sale occurs when direct loans have been acquired through payments on guarantee claims upon default, or through sale of collateral and are subsequently sold to the public, usually with guarantees attached. The final form of loan asset transaction is the "tandem" plan of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Under this program designated types of mortgages are purchased at below-market yields and then resold to the private market at prices sufficiently low to afford a normal return to investors. This program is being phased out during 1982. Table F-4 shows all loan offsets—repayments, other capital recoveries, asset sales, non-cash adjustments or other offsets that are counted against the volume of new loans extended to derive net loan outlays. Table F-3 displays new direct loan transactions and net direct loan outlays; table F-4 provides a four-way distribution 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 of those loan offsets that are the difference between these two measures of direct lending. The four-way split is as follows: —Loan asset sales to the public result in a flow of cash from the public to the agency in exchange for title to direct loans. In most cases this form of transaction converts direct loans into privately held notes guaranteed by the Government. —Loan asset sales to the FFB shift title to direct loans (or CBO's) from the agency to the FFB. For an on-budget agency, this reduces the recorded budget outlays by the amount of the sale but raises the off-budget outlays of the FFB by an equal amount. For an off-budget entity, sales to the FFB reduce the recorded off-budget outlays of the selling entity and raises the off-budget outlays of the FFB by an equal amount. All loans purchased by the FFB are fully guaranteed by some other Federal agency. —Repayments, prepayments, and other capital recoveries are cash paid to the Government, to draw down loan principal and thereby reduce indebtedness. They are counted as a reduction in direct loans outstanding. —Non-cash adjustments are non-cash accounting entries to take cognizance of losses, write-offs, or other adjustments in cases in which the recorded value of the loans is greater than the amount of money collected or collectable on the loans. Table F - 4 . LOAN ASSETS SALES, LOAN REPAYMENTS, AND OTHER LOAN OFFSETS (in millions of dollars) Loan assets sales Agency or program ON-BUDGET AGENCIES Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corportation Agricultural credit insurance fund Rural housing insurance fund Rural development insurance fund Health and Human Services: Health maintenance organization loans Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration fund Other housing programs Veterans Administration: Direct loan revolving fund Loan guarantee revolving fund Export-Import Bank Foundation for Education Assistance Small Business Administration Other agencies and programs Transactions with the the the the the the the the Public.. FFB Public.. FFB Public.. FFB Public., FFB the Public.. the FFB the the the the Public.. FFB Public.. FFB the the the the the the the the the the the Public... FFB Public.. FFB Public.. FFB Public.. FFB Public.. FFB Public.. 1981 actual 1982 est. Repayments and adjustments 1983 est. 5,391 29 5,619 3,071 20 3,537 1,650 1,511 1,196 3 15 28 6,815 31 6,045 - Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments- 6,998 20 3,181 -62 996 -166 78 16 Non-cash adjustments.. 124 544 1982 est. 7,196 35 3,824 -46 1,283 -203 93 -1 2 Repayments, etc.4 81 11 1981 actual Repayments, etc 4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments .. 57 -750 2,262 27 126 212 1,662 2 Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments .. Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments .. Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments .. Repayments, etc.4 50 50 * * 417 151 1,475 702 39 1,882 85 84 733 259 1,290 986 296 1,558 2 K) Table F-4. LOAN ASSETS SALES, LOAN REPAYMENTS, AND OTHER LOAN OFFSETS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Transactions with Agency or program Loan assets sales 1981 actual 1982 est. Repayments and adjustments 1983 est. the FFB Subtotal, excluding tandem plans 1 Subtotal, with tandem plan Non-cash adjustments- 1982 est. 662 860 17,621 19,447 45 116 698 14,525 12,550 7,821 Non-cash adjustments.. 143 1,193 the Public.. the FFB 1,170 1,401 1,413 Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments- 126 849 120 1,099 the Public.. 1,216 1,517 2,111 Repayments, etc.4 17,747 19,567 14,525 12,550 7,821 Non-cash adjustments- 991 2,292 390 623 525 Repayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustmentsRepayments, etc.4 Non-cash adjustments.. 363 683 9,557 12,278 9,920 12,668 27,667 32,235 991 2,292 the Public., the FFB Housing and Urban Development (GNMA): Tandem plan sales—FHA/VA mortgages 1981 actual the FFB Repayments, etc.4 OFF-BUDGET FEDERAL ENTITIES Rural electrification and telephone revolving fundOther Subtotal, off-budget Federal entities the the the the Public.. FFB Public.. FFB the Public.. the FFB Grand Total the Public: the FFB 1 2 3 4 Repayments, etc.4 683 623 525 1,216 [,517 2,111 Repayments, etc.4 15,208 13,173 U46 Non-cash adjustments.. All loans sold, except conventional tandem plan sales, are guaranteed upon sale, and reflected in the guaranteed loan totals in Table F-5. The "Public" includes Government-sponsored enterprises such as FNMA and FHLMC, which are among the principal purchasers of HUD and VA mortgages. See Table F - 4 for detail of FFB purchases. Includes prepayments and other capital recoveries. Non-cash adjustments.. 25 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A T H E FEDERAL FINANCING BANK The Federal Financing Bank began operations in May 1974 and has been a significant factor in financing Federal credit activities. The bank is administered by the Treasury Department. Its transactions are excluded by law from the budget totals. Hence, its lending transactions are not counted as budget outlays, although it finances its operations through borrowing by the Treasury. The FFB was designed to serve as a financial intermediary for the efficient financing of obligations issued, sold or guaranteed by Federal agencies. The FFB performs three functions, two of which generate Federal outlays that are excluded from the budget. First, most loan assets are now sold to the FFB rather than to the public. This converts the loans from outlays of the original agencies to offbudget FFB outlays. Second, the FFB makes loans directly to borrowers whose obligations are guaranteed by a Federal agency. These guaranteed loans are in effect converted into direct loans offbudget. The FFB assures the efficient financing of these guaranteed loans and reduces borrowing costs. Third, with some exceptions, the Treasury generally requires agencies authorized to borrow from the public to borrow from the FFB instead. Borrowing by agencies from the FFB does not result in FFB outlays just as borrowing by agencies from the Treasury does not result in Treasury outlays. The use of the proceeds from borrowing is counted as outlays of the borrowing agency. However, the agency must pay interest to the FFB on these borrowings and in turn the FFB pays interest to Treasury on its borrowing. The Treasury can finance its lending to the FFB by borrowing at lower interest rates than the agencies would have to pay. 360-700 O - 8 2 - 4 (Part F) 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table F-5. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars) Agency or program Purchase of loan assets from: Overseas Private Investment Corporation: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Farmers Home Administration (USDA): Agricultural credit insurance fund: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Rural housing insurance fund: New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Rural development insurance fund: New acquisitions 1981 actual 1983 estimate 1982 estimate -5 28 6,815 -6 23 5,391 17 3,071 5,790 1,066 22,357 23,423 23,029 -394 3,537 6,045 5,619 4,045 3,249 852 21,121 24,370 25,223 1,511 1,196 1,650 Net outlays 1,025 1,036 Outstandings 5,343 6,379 Rural Electrification Administration (USDA): New acquisitions -6 691 7,070 683 623 525 683 623 525 2,595 3,219 3,743 Net outlays -6 -5 -5 Outstandings 158 154 149 Net outlays Outstandings Medical facilities guarantees (HHS): New acquisitions Health Maintenance Organizations (HHS): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings 15 13 28 16 27 16 118 145 161 Small business development loans(SBA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Subtotal, purchase of loan assets: New acquisitions -12 44 15,208 13,173 8,346 11,534 Outstandings 51,797 2,505 Net outlays 1,945 Outstandings 9,148 -16 60 Net outlays Direct loans (purchases of loans guaranteed by agencies): Foreign military sales credit (FAP): New acquisitions -16 76 5,975 57,772 3,320 1,663 59,436 4,400 2,670 3,715 11,818 15,533 27 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table F-5. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Agency or program Rural Electrification Administration (USDA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Guarantees of SLMA obligations (FEA): New acquisitions 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 4,007 4,311 4,136 3,918 4,309 4,129 12,343 16,652 20,781 1,955 700 Net outlays 1,955 700 Outstandings 4,300 5,000 Alternative fuels and other energy (Commerce): New acquisitions 5,000 18 498 Net outlays 915 18 498 915 Outstandings 18 516 1,431 1,026 Low-rent public housing (HUD): New acquisitions Net outlays 822 1,261 810 1,224 Outstandings 928 2,153 3,122 120 Community development grants (HUD): New acquisitions 969 Net outlays 45 110 34 96 Outstandings 74 170 253 34 34 34 * 30 66 96 1,794 173 42 1,563 83 New Communities Administration (HUD): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Loans to territories (Interior): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Railroad programs (DOT): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Public building CBI's 1 (GSA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Satellite leases (NASA): New acquisitions Net outlays Outstandings Small business investment companies and other SBA: New acquisitions 30 250 1,521 58 19 1,583 14 35 13 28 -8 514 542 535 111 111 206 171 206 112 638 844 956 165 275 240 848 195 Net outlays 131 Outstandings 608 1 -1 95 240 1,043 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table F-5. FFB ACQUISITIONS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Agency or program Seven States Energy Corporation (TVA): New acquisitions 1981 actual 4,285 5,289 198 278 922 1,120 1,398 15,061 15,204 16,355 10,242 10,407 3,624 Net outlays 237 Outstandings Subtotal, direct loans (purchase of loans guaranteed by agencies): New acquisitions Net outlays 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 9,422 Outstandings 31,113 41,355 51,763 Subtotal, all direct loans and purchases of agency loan assets: New acquisitions 30,269 28,377 24,701 Net outlays 20,956 16,217 12,071 Outstandings 82,911 99,127 111,198 AGENCY BORROWING ADDENDUM By: on-budget agencies: Export-Import Bank: Net change Outstandings Tennessee Valley Authority: Net change Outstandings National Credit Union Association: 2,342 2,234 1,965 12,409 14,643 16,608 1,939 10,874 Net change 11 Outstandings 101 By: off-budget Federal entities: U.S. Railway Association: Net change Outstandings -267 215 2,136 1,675 13,010 14,685 -3 98 -94 121 Postal Service: -4 94 -13 108 Net change -232 Outstandings 1,288 1,721 1,634 3,794 4,705 3,537 24,888 29,593 33,129 433 — 87 Total agency borrowing: Net change Outstandings *$500.000 or less. 1 Certificates of beneficial interest. Table F-5 lists the activities of the FFB for 1981-83 by agency and account. The first set of entries lists FFB purchases of agency loan assets. The second set of entries lists FFB direct loans, i.e. disbursements of loans guaranteed by Federal agencies. The adden- SPECIAL ANALYSIS A 29 dum lists borrowing (debt issues) by on-budget agencies and offbudget entities from the FFB. The FFB's net outlays from lending are expected to fall from $21.0 billion in 1981 to $16.2 billion in 1982, and to $12.1 billion in 1983, a decrease over the 2 years of $8.9 billion. This decrease can be attributed to reduced purchases of CBO's issued by FmHA. Net purchases of FmHA loan assets fall from $10.9 billion in 1981 to $1.1 billion in 1983. Net FFB disbursements of loans guaranteed by other agencies will remain stable in 1982 and 1983, as increases in foreign military sales credit offset reductions in loans to the Student Loan Marketing Association. LOAN GUARANTEES Loan guarantees are agreements in which a Government agency pledges to use Government funds, as necessary, to secure a lender against default on the part of the borrower. The loan guarantee is the Federal Government's contingent liability, which may be less than the full face value of the loan. A guaranteed loan is the resulting loan, with a guarantee attached. Loan insurance is a type of guarantee in which a Government agency operates a program of pooled risks, pledging the use of accumulated insurance premiums to secure a lender against default on the part of a borrower. The major use of loan guarantees has been to support housing, but in recent years guarantees have increasingly been used for other purposes. Loan guarantees are designed to allocate economic resources to particular uses by providing credit at more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in the private market. In cases where the loan guarantee recipients are not sufficiently creditworthy to borrow without Federal assistance, the guarantee reallocates credit toward federally selected uses, increasing the total volume of credit channeled into these uses. This leaves a smaller supply of credit to be allocated to those potential borrowers who do not receive assistance. However, the guarantee does not always change the allocation of credit. Some beneficiaries of loan guarantee programs would have been able to secure the funds privately, without Government support. For example, guaranteed mortgage credit might be used to finance, at a lower cost, a house that would have been purchased anyway. In such a case, the guarantee does not alter the allocation of credit resources. The loan guarantee is used in widely varying programs. The guaranteed loan may be made to individuals, businesses, State and local governments, or foreign governments. The guaranteed obligation may be a loan made by a bank or other institutional lender, it may be a security sold in the capital market, or it may be a security sold to the FFB. In the case of fully guaranteed loans, the 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Government guarantees the repayment of all principal and interest. In the case of partially guaranteed loans, the Government guarantees only partial repayment of principal and interest. Guaranteed loans also include loans on which the Government promises to pay a share of the interest, though none of the principal. Credit may be indirectly guaranteed without being explicitly labeled as a loan guarantee program under various contractual agreements, including guarantees of private leases, contracts to make subsidy payments over extended periods and debt service grants. Guaranteed loans include most loan assets sold by Federal agencies. Guaranteed loans are not reflected in budget outlays when credit is extended. Guaranteed loans generally result in budget outlays only when there is a default, requiring the Government to pay the lender's claims for losses. Losses from loan guarantee programs have generally been small, partly because most of the loans were protected with liens on marketable property. Some of the newer loan guarantee programs, such as student loans, have greater losses. Data for guaranteed loans, for 1981-83, organized by agency or program, are presented in table F-6. The table includes the full amount of the principal of guaranteed loans, even though in some cases the Government guarantees less than the total amount. The structure of table F-6 is comparable to that for direct loans in table F-3. Information on the amount of the Federal contingent liability under these guarantees may be found in the Budget Appendix. Commitments for new guaranteed loans are agreements by the Government to guarantee loans upon the prospective borrowers' and lenders' fulfillment of specific conditions. Commitments in a given year do not always result in new guaranteed loans in that year, since conversion of a commitment to a guaranteed loan can take time and some prospective borrowers to whom commitments are made do not ever convert the commitments into borrowing. The net change in loans guaranteed is equal to the amount of new guaranteed loans less repayments and other adjustments. The net change is also equal to the difference in guaranteed loans outstanding at the end and at the beginning of the year. Table F - 3 . DIRECT LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Commitments Agency or program 1981 actual Funds Appropriated to the President: International security assistance... New transactions.. Net change 2,546 1982 estimate 3,084 Loans guaranteed 1983 estimate 3,929 Outstandings International development assistance.. New transactions.. Net change 229 250 250 Outstandings Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration New transactions.. Net change 15,434 13,327 7,955 Outstandings Commodity Credit Corporation export credit, New transactions.. Net change 2,015 2,500 2,500 Outstandings Rural Electrification Administration New transactions.. Net change 5,134 4,245 Outstandings Commerce: Economic development assistance.. New transactions.. Net change Outstandings 178 50 3,760 1981 1982 actual estimate 2,505 3,320 2,038 2,775 9,425 12,200 105 275 71 241 964 1,205 15,329 13,375 54,879 60,137 10,555 1,516 5,257 2,500 1,298 1,739 2,005 3,744 4,793 5,039 4,704 5,037 15,543 20,581 178 113 702 50 -39 663 CO to Table F-6. GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Commitments Agency or program 1981 1982 actual National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. New transactions estimate 31 50 Loans guaranteed 1983 estimate 25 Net change Outstandings Energy Research and Technology.. Defense: military. Health and Human Services: Health programs New transactions... 3,298 Community development estimate 31 50 25 21 38 12 192 230 242 1,278 2,022 1,278 2,022 Outstandings 1,374 3,397 3,397 New transactions.. 1 * * * Outstandings * * * 69 108 104 Net change New transactions.. 69 116 104 Net change New transactions.. 19,343 18,293 19,771 Net change Outstandings Federal Housing Administration 1982 actual Net change Outstandings Housing and Urban DevelopmentSubsidized low-rent public housing- 1981 New transactions.. 43 74 65 1,364 1,437 1,503 16,968 18,338 19,603 1,032 2,018 2,269 17,522 19,540 21,810 17,742 23,621 28,251 Net change 10,994 16,765 20,630 Outstandings [35,445 152,210 172,840 45 110 120 New transactions.. 23,635 156 28,609 125 35,000 outlays 28 96 83 Outstandings 1... 74 170 253 Net GNMA: Mortgage-backed securities Interior: Indian programs New transactions.. Net change Outstandings 42,150 New transactions... Net change Outstandings Transportation: Rail programs New transactions.. Net change Outstandings Washington M.T.A. bonds 48,000 38,400 16,853 15,185 104,637 28,500 24,963 129,600 32,000 28,700 158,300 58 24 1 -z7 119 63 58 178 24 14 191 62 427 1,285 58 557 1,304 997 997 997 928 635 6,568 750 427 6,995 700 557 7,552 429 371 605 209 134 740 - 71 669 300 211 938 300 207 1,144 -132 l f 012 400 400 1,200 1.20? ! 135 16 New transactions.... Net change Outstandings Federal ship financing fund New transactions.... Net change Outstandings 1,047 675 Aircraft ioans New transactions.... Net change Outstandings.. 408 56 New transactions.... Net change Outstandings.. 300 New transactions.... Net change Outstandings 400 . 104 635 1,271 600 Treasury: Guarantees of N e w York City notes...... Chrysler Corporation loan guarantee program New transactions, Biomass energy development. .... . l 300 ., 700 MO co Table F-6. GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)—Continued Commitments Agency or program 1982 1981 estimate actual NASA: Long term satellite leases. Loans guaranteed 1983 estimate 700 700 New transactions.. Ill 206 171 New transactions.. Net change 11,719 19,542 22,451 Outstandings New transactions.. Net change 7,416 New transactions.. Net change 1,955 700 New transactions.. 7,762 9,500 Net change Outstandings General Services Administration New transactions.. Net outlays Outstandings 14 206 206 638 844 10,354 6,434 35 10,300 17,377 12,707 105,868 118,574 4,899 5,625 6,984 7,404 1,955 4,300 700 700 5,000 7,762 9,500 17,715 24,821 14 35 1,222 1,233 1,955 Outstandings Student loan insurance fund 111 111 766 Outstandings Foundation for Education Assistance: Guarantees of SLMA debt issues. estimate Outstandings.. Outstandings Export-Import Bank. 1982 actual Net change Net change Veterans Administration (housing). 1981 6,066 -15 420 7,105 10 National Credit Union Administration.. Small Business Administration: Business loan guarantees Net change 58 100 44 12 Outstandings 118 162 174 2,986 3,000 2,700 9,977 11,233 12,067 New transactions.. New transactions.. Net change 121 3,516 100 3,000 75 2,700 Outstandings 85 1,269 New transactions.. Disaster Loan fund 1 Net change * Outstandings Pollution control bond guarantees New transactions.. 8 100 150 150 Other agencies and programs Subtotal, guaranteed loans (gross). 150 -1 11 150 150 150 256 406 556 3,624 Net change 237 4,285 5,289 Outstandings 922 1,120 1,398 36 New transactions.. 3,624 New transactions.. 4,285 5,289 31 14 198 278 Net change -144 -42 Outstandings 1,566 1,524 5 -77 1,447 111,480 140,413 146,451 New transactions.. 152,729 166,130 161,454 65,721 Net change 505,405 Outstandings Less secondary guaranteed GNMA guarantees of FHA/VA/FmHA pools.. 100 6 5 12 834 100 Net change Outstandings Tennessee Valley Authority 1,256 75 85,281 590,686 cn TJ M O > r1 > > r K! GQ GO 86,718 677,404 loans:1 New transactions.. 38,400 42,150 Net change Outstandings Education Foundation guarantees of SLMA debt issues.. New transactions.. 1,955 700 16,853 15,185 28,500 32,000 24,963 28,700 104,637 129,600 158,300 1,955 700 co CR oo 05 Table F-6. GUARANTEED LOAN TRANSACTIONS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (in millions of dollars)-Continued Loans guaranteed Agency or program DOT guarantees of USRA debt- Subtotal, guaranteed loans (net). 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1,955 4,300 700 5,000 5,000 New transactions... Net change Outstandings -369 299 19 -101 198 — 17 181 New transactions... 108,616 117,430 123,054 Outstandings 92,604 111,194 114,443 48,950 59,719 58,035 396,170 455,888 513,923 t)d a a 0 M H 1 ^ O W loans:2 By off-budget Federal Financing Bank- Total, primary guaranteed loansJ New transactions.. Net change Outstandings 1,832 New transactions... Net change Outstandings 30,269 New transactions... 76,515 1,988 28,377 87,065 24,701 98,354 Net change Outstandings Memorandum: Callable capital contributions to international financial organizations.. actual Net change Outstandings Net change Less guaranteed loans held as direct By budget agency (GNMA) 1981 New transactions.. Net change 1,133 2,340 2,361 2,168 2,119 2,017 4,203 -501 3,702 -631 3,071 30,269 28,377 24,701 20,956 82,911 16,217 99,127 12,071 111,198 60,168 80,698 87,725 27,972 44,003 46,595 309,056 353,059 399,654 1,133 2,340 2,361 1,133 2,340 2,361 > M > | Outstandings.. 13,508 15,848 3,545 2,5( 18,209 ADDENDUM Less guaranteed loans held as direct loans by Government sponsored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association New transactions.. 2,244 2,575 Net change Outstandings Federal home loan banks.. Outstandings Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Student Loan Marketing Association.. Total Enterprise holdings.. 3 40,650 42,291 7 3 3 4 86 z7 i7 90 -119 Outstandings 989 923 808 575 1,166 2,000 New transactions.. 575 Net change 1,166 97 New transactions. 31 12 11 -66 -115 855 1,421 866 2,307 11 12 Net change 3 Outstandings 24 24 4 28 4,139 3,678 3,964 1649_ 2,953 New transactions.. 2,400 3,422 Outstandings. 2 39,792 New transactions.. Net change 1 1,641 Net change Outstandings Farm Credit Administration.. 858 New transactions.. Net change 1,950 2,234 4,589 J,219 40,922 42,551 w M O > > > r^ in 45,524 Secondary guarantees by the Export-Import Bank of the debt of the Private Export Finance Corporation have not been estimated and are excluded from the table. When guaranteed loans are acquired by a budget account, they become direct loans, and are counted as such in Table F - 3 . This deduction eliminates the overlap with Table F - 3 . Outstanding guaranteed loans exclude adjustments for deferred interest and transfers. CO 38 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 The aggregation of loan guarantees for each program to derive a gross total involves some double counting. Elimination of this double counting requires two adjustments. The first adjustment deducts loans previously guaranteed, or secondary guaranteed loans. They occur, for example, in the case of the GNMA mortgagebacked securities program, which guarantees securities that are backed by pools of federally guaranteed or insured loans held by the seller. The second adjustment deducts guarantees of loans that are also direct loans by the Government—by either on- or offbudget accounts. The total after these two deductions represents what are defined as primary guaranteed loans. An addendum includes guaranteed loans purchased by a Government-sponsored enterprise. Net loans guaranteed are expected to increase significantly in 1982, from $30.0 billion in 1981 to $44.0 billion in 1982, a change of $14.0 billion. The growth will continue at a much slower pace in 1983, rising by $2.6 billion to $46.6 billion. This increase is due primarily to improved economic conditions for housing. As the housing industry recovers from its depressed 1981 level, net guaranteed loans are expected to increase between 1981 and 1983 by $9.6 billion in the FHA mortgage insurance program and $8.2 billion in the Veterans Administration mortgage insurance program. Net guaranteed loan levels for most other programs are being held stable or decreasing during 1982 and 1983. FUNCTIONAL A R E A S SUPPORTED BY FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE The distributions of direct and guaranteed loans by function are given in table F-7. Table F-7 records the levels of new direct loans and new guaranteed loans. The largest Federal credit activity occurs in commerce and housing credit, international affairs, and veterans benefits. These three functions are expected to comprise 59% of new commitments and obligations in 1983. Part 5 of the Budget discusses Federal credit activities by function together with Federal outlays. 39 SPECIAL ANALYSIS A Table F-7. DIRECT LOANS AND GUARANTEED LOANS BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Guaranteed loan commitments Direct loans obligations Function 1981 actual International affairs General science, space and technology.. Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development.... Education, training, employment, and social services Health Income security Veterans benefits and services General government General purpose fiscal assistance Total credit budget 2 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 7,687 8,014 7,779 3,722 -484 -1,816 2,158 25,843 -330 1,039 2,701 29,707 693 676 2,631 37,730 542 -104 648 40 2,031 936 5,807 52 18,520 11,719 8,800 88 17,032 19,542 10,300 88 18,745 22,451 8 145 300 300 48,994 76,516 87,068 10,097 111 8,855 25 15,101 10,714 1,886 3,601 10,014 206 10,317 27 16,796 10,913 362 2,096 12,215 171 11,182 39 13,818 5,938 117 1,715 2,514 57 3,020 987 14 214 1,633 54 2,766 878 65 225 57,194 56,351 GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED 1981 actual 98,354 ENTERPRISES Government-sponsored enterprises have been established and chartered by the Federal Government to perform specialized credit functions. They are financial intermediaries, designed to facilitate the financing of selected kinds of economic activity, by serving as reserve facilities or performing secondary market functions. They are all privately owned and most are independent of Federal control to a substantial degree. Since they are privately owned, their activities are not included in the budget totals. They are all subject, however, to some form of Federal supervision, and by law or by custom they consult with the Treasury Department in planning the marketing of their debt. The enterprises included in this category are the Student Loan Marketing Association (SLMA), the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), three components of the Farm Credit System, and the Federal Home Loan Bank system (FHLBS) which includes the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC). Part 6 of the Budget discusses Governmentsponsored enterprises. Government sponsorship has provided these enterprises with characteristics that differentiate them in credit markets from completely private institutions. They have been given special preferences and certain tax exemptions, and their securities may be offered as investments of federally regulated institutions. These advantages give their security obligations a preferred position in the securities markets, enabling them to borrow at rates only slightly higher than those of the Treasury. 40 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Funds lent by Government-sponsored enterprises are generally obrained from private bond markets. The sole exception, SLMA, had until 1981, borrowed exclusively from the FFB, although beginning in 1988 it will raise all its additional funds in private markets. Sale of capital stock and retained earnings provide only a very small portion of the resources used for lending. The pattern of bor towing and lending varies widely over time. For example, some enterprises, such as FNMA, were created to establish secondary markets, thereby increasing liquidity in mortgage markets; others, such as the Federal home loan banks, are facilities advancing reserves to member institutions, in this case savings and loan associations.8 These enterprises provide liquidity to primary lenders in times of tight monetary conditions, by either purchasing loans from the primary lenders or by making advances to the primary lenders. These loans and advances are then paid back as monetary and. financial conditions improve. In recent years, this latter group of enterprises has expanded its role by seeking to draw new funds into mortgage markets at all times. By borrowing additional funds themselves, they can provide more funds to the basic mortgage lending institutions. Table F -8 shows the lending and borrowing of Government-sponsored enterprises for 1981-83. The format of this table closely resembles that used in table F-3 for direct loans and F-6 for guaranteed loans. Total gross lending and borrowing are adjusted to avoid the double counting that arises from loans between enterprises and between enterprises and the Federal Government. The deductions in the table remove this double counting. Lending by Government-sponsored enterprises has been growing rapidly in recent years. This trend will continue in 1982 and 1983, iccording to the plans of FHLMC and FNMA. Both enterprises expect to expand their new programs of conventional mortgagebacked securities greatly beginning in 1982. These securities are packaged by mortgage lenders and guaranteed by FHLMC and FNMA in much the same way as GNMA mortgage-backed securities ?ire issued and guaranteed. However, the FHLMC and FNMA programs will guarantee conventional mortgages, insured by private mortgage insurers, rather than FHA and VA insured mortgages, For FHLMC the expansion shown in table F-7 is dependent " •:•: : vka,;: ran'; c-. G N M A (a tmdge-t entity in HUD) to guarantee mortgage-backed securities achieves a similar 'a"*, t^ijii ivu-rmeduxuon. G N M A guarantees securities issued against privately held pools of federally j jt .-u-od -n engages. Th* Federal Reserve Board flow-of-funds data include this G N M A program aefminon : f Government-sponsored enterprises G N M A data for this activity appear as entries in Table F-8. CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (in millions of dollars) Obligations Agency or program 1981 actual 1982 estimate Loans made 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate LENDING (FUNDS ADVANCED) New transactions. Student Loan Marketing Association Net change 2,530 2,530 1,866 2,052 Outstandings New transactions. Federal National Mortgage Association Net change 4,331 5,277 13,820 15,629 Outstandings Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives New transactions. Net change 24,938 28,550 33,192 Outstandings New transactions. Federal intermediate credit banks Net change 17,637 21,034 23,932 Outstandings New transactions. Federal land banks Net change 11,083 11,919 13,172 Outstandings Federal home loan bank system: Federal home loan banks New transactions. Net change 52,864 59,003 65,003 Outstandings Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation: Corporation accounts New transactions., Net change 3,011 23,740 28,924 Outstandings Participation certificate pools1 - New transactions. Net change Outstandings 23,840 29,048 6,069 4,050 1,866 2,000 5,886 7,307 1,555 16,025 12,638 1,421 15,950 12,496 59,682 72,320 84,816 24,938 777 9,429 28,550 33,192 10,587 11,862 17,637 21,034 23,932 21,889 25,100 28,873 11,083 11,919 13,172 44,452 51,964 60,154 52,864 59,003 65,003 68,306 72,878 77,880 3,011 23,740 28,924 5,343 4,634 3,917 1,977 7,230 20,516 -876 1,884 1,215 17,985 1,157 3,212 '7,511 4,572 -710 23,840 21,592 39,576 1,276 3,773 8,190 5,002 -716 29,048 24,101 63,677 Table F-8. CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (in millions of dollars)—Continued K) Obligations Agency or program Subtotal, lending (gross) 1981 actual New transactions. 119,225 Loans made 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 183,772 210,899 Net change Less secondary funds advanced from Federal sources: SLMA from FFB Less guaranteed loans held as direct loans by: Federal National Mortgage Association New transactions. Net change New transactions. 660 3,872 1,955 New transactions. 1,806 700 1,955 1,955 2,244 2,575 Outstandings Federal home loan banks New transactions. New transaction.. 11 12 Outstandings Student Loan Marketing Association 2 New transactions. Net change 575 1,166 700 700 2,500 39,792 40,650 7 3 i7 88 -119 Outstandings -882 2,990 3,545 2,234 86 Net change Net change 282,945 5,000 4 Outstandings Farm Credit Administration 51,528 4,300 New transactions. Net change Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 185,977 660 326 Outstandings Net change 120,017 231,417 Outstandings Net change 1982 estimate 36,940 Outstandings Less loans between sponsored enterprises: Federal home loan banks to FHLMC 1981 actual 858 989 -66 923 12 *9 24 24 575 1,166 3 97 855 31 Total credit advanced. 114,210 179,650 206,310 2,307 113,263 181,599 207,255 32,440 50,062 53,089 182,323 232,384 285,474 1,603 1,543 BORROWING (FUNDS RAISED) Student Loan Marketing Association 2,223 4,568 Federal National Mortgage Association3 Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives 4,342 Federal land banks Federal home loan bank system: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Subtotal, borrowing (gross) Less borrowing from other sponsored enterprises Less borrowing from Federal SLMA from FFB 11,657 68,334 79,991 737 1,093 1,136 hd w o 3,502 r > 1,921 10,215 2,882 11,351 21,281 24,163 27,666 6,819 6,842 41,076 47,918 7,494 21,029 3,662 55,411 61.290 65,365 1,847 20,948 23,460 23,344 44.291 48,676 52,867 213,706 262,382 315,249 230 -882 3,670 1,955 > > r*< in 67,752 38,917 4,300 ui 4,075 57,628 4,552 sources: 2 11,646 7,713 56,688 9,122 Federal intermediate credit banks 6,171 -500 3,170 700 5,000 5,000 co Table F-8. CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (in millions of dollars)—Continued Loans made Obligations Agency or program Total borrowing from the public and Government- 1981 actual Net change Outstandings .. Less investments in Federal securities: Investments in Federal securities Federal home loan banks.. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.. Net change Outstandings.. Student Loan Marketing Total credit raised Administration : 1981 actual 1982 estimate 36,732 204,854 253,712 1,898 2,464 2,234 Outstandings.. Net change Net change Outstandings. Net change Outstandings.. Net change Outstandings.. 566 858 39,792 40,650 4 i7 88 Net change Outstandings.. Farm Credit Administration. 1983 estimate Net change Outstandings.. Less borrowings for guaranteed loans held as direct loans by: Federal National Mortgage Association 1982 estimate 86 -119 -66 989 3 923 24 24 268 268 1,171 34,806 161,798 903 46,595 208,392 All new transactions are loans purchased from FHLMC corporation accounts. -Until recently, all SLMA lending has been financed through the FFB, and therefore has been counted above (table F - 3 ) as direct loans. All SLMA loans are student loans guaranteed by the Federal Government. They have, therefore, been counted above (table F - 6 ) as guaranteed loans. The first deduction eliminates the overlap of this table with the direct loan table. The second deduction removes the non-FFB financed remainder of SLMA, to eliminate overlap with the guaranteed loan table. Loans purchased at discount are recorded at their acquisition cost. 4 These deductions include those borrowings involved in double-counting to give the adjusted total that is carried over to table F - 7 . 1 45 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F on passage of a reform of the FHLMC's charter, now pending in Congress. For FNMA, the figures shown do not include this new program; they do, however, reflect assumptions of expansion of FNMA in purchases of conventional mortgages, based on recovery in housing markets. Lending by the FHLB's is expected to fall sharply during 1982 and rise only slightly during 1983; the change results from improved access to funds by savings and loan institutions, which will reduce their need to borrow from the FHLB's. The activity of the other Government-sponsored enterprises is expected to remain relatively stable during 1982 and 1983. The FHLMC has been shifting its portfolio to include conventional mortgages only, leaving FNMA as the primary Government-sponsored enterprise holder of FHA and VA insured loans. The economic assumptions on which the estimates rest are not necessarily the same as the administration's economic forecast, which is used for the budget. Special Analysis E discusses the borrowing of Government-sponsored enterprises in detail. SUMMARY OF CREDIT ADVANCED AND RAISED U N D E R FEDERAL AUSPICES The credit advanced and raised under Federal auspices is summarized in table F-9. Credit advanced by direct and guaranteed loan programs reached $54.0 billion in 1981. This lending level is estimated to increase to $64.8 billion in 1982, and fall to $60.8 billion in 1983. Loans by Government-sponsored enterprises will increase by $17.7 and $2.0 billion in 1982 and 1983, respectively. Outstanding credit advances to the public under Federal auspices are expected to total $806.7 billion by the end of 1983. Net credit raised under Federal auspices totaled $142.1 billion net in 1981, and is expected to reach to $206.0 billion in 1982, and $204.7 billion in 1983. T A X EXEMPT CREDIT Since the adoption of the Federal income tax in 1913, interest on State and local government obligations generally has been exempt from Federal income tax.8 The resulting subsidy to borrowers has historically been a saving of 30 to 35% of the interest rate. The large interest subsidies provided through tax-exempt credit result in reallocation of credit resources to the assisted borrowers, just as do Federal direct loan and loan guarantee programs. Borrowers aided by tax exemption gain a position of preferred access to credit resources over competing taxable borrowers, just as do borrowers with other forms of Federal credit assistance, although in a different form. 8 Tax exempt interest is one type of tax expenditure, the subject of Special Analysis G. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 46 Table F-9. SUMMARY OF CREDIT ADVANCED AND CREDIT RAISED UNDER FEDERAL AUSPICES (In billions of dollars) Net Change 1981 actual 1982 estimate Outstanding 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate LENDING (Credit advanced) Direct loans (from table F-3): On-budget agencies Off-budget entities Guaranteed loans (primary, from table F-6) Total Federal Government credit advanced Loans by Government-sponsored enterprises (from table F-8) Total, credit advanced to the public under Federal auspices 5.2 20.9 4.4 16.4 1.9 12.3 91.3 93.7 95.7 110.1 97.6 122.4 28.0 44.0 46.6 309.1 353.1 399.7 54.0 64.8 60.8 494.1 558.9 619.6 32.4 50.1 53.1 182.3 232.4 285.5 86.5 109.9 113.6 676.4 791.3 905.1 79.3 115.4 108.0 794.4 913.4 1,021.4 28.0 44.0 46.6 309.1 353.1 399.7 107.3 159.4 154.6 1,103.5 1,266.5 1,421.1 34.8 46.6 50.1 161.8 208.4 258.5 142.1 206.0 204.7 1,265.3 1,474.9 1,679.6 BORROWING (Credit raised) Federal borrowing from the public (from table E - l ) Guaranteed borrowing (same as guaranteed loans, above) 1 Total Federal Government credit raised Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises (from table F-8) Total, credit raised from the public under Federal auspices 1 Outstanding totals for direct and guaranteed loans exclude adjustments for deferred interest and transfers. Table F-9 also shows the annual revenue loss to the Treasury from all tax-exempt bonds issued each year, the value of the longterm subsidy received by the borrower, and the present value of the tax loss from newly issued tax-exempt bonds. The annual tax loss reflects the amount of reduction in receipts resulting from the issuance of tax-exempt rather than taxable debt in that year. However, further tax losses and subsidies from tax-exempt financing occurs over the entire life of the security. Therefore, the present value of the total tax loss is substantially larger than the annual tax loss. The cost to the Treasury in lost tax revenues exceeds the financial benefits to the borrower, because the lender also shares in the subsidy. (See Special Analysis G for a discussion of revenue losses attributable to special provisions of the tax code, including tax-exempt bonds.) During the first half century of income tax, this tax exemption was confined mainly to State and local governmental borrowing for public purposes. During the 1960's, however, tax exempt financing SPECIAL ANALYSIS F 47 was increasingly made available to certain private uses. These uses were curtailed by the 1968 and 1969 tax acts, but a number of exceptions were permitted that have allowed major growth of some private uses. As table F-9 shows, the sale of tax-exempt bonds used for private purposes has increased greatly in recent years, while nominal State and local government new issues (adjusted for advanced refunding) for public purposes has remained relatively constant. Tax-exempt bonds issued for private purposes in five activities—owner occupied and rental housing, private nonprofit hospitals, pollution-control facilities, student loans, and business financed with "small-issue'' IDB's—will reach an estimated $35.3 billion of new obligations in calendar year 1982, accounting for over half (56%) of the total longterm tax-exempt market. This compares with $8.5 billion in new issues and 24% of the long-term tax-exempt market just 6 years earlier. The Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1980 imposed major restrictions on the use of tax-exempt credit for owner-occupied housing, where the largest growth has occurred in recent years. The "small-issue'' exemption on industrial development bonds has the largest potential for growth. Forty States permit "smallissue" IDB's, and at least 23 States have virtually no limits on the projects that they can finance. Industrial development bonds (IDB's) are the principal form of obligations nominally issued by a State or local government to raise funds for private purposes. In almost all cases, a State or local authority that issues IDB's is a conduit for providing tax-exempt financing to the private borrower. The authority lends its tax exempt status to the private borrower's debt obligations, but is not responsible for the payment of interest and principal in the event of default. The administration is proposing to reduce the use of private purpose tax-exempt bonds through several changes in the tax code. The administration proposes that assets financed with tax-exempt bonds issued after 1982 must be depreciated using the straight-line method over an extended recovery period. Tax-exempt financing will be limited to bonds that are publicly approved by local governments and which, after 1985, receive a financial contribution, commitment, or obligation from the local government. Small issue IDB's will not be allowed for large businesses. While direct and guaranteed loan programs are included in the credit budget, tax-exempt credit is not. Although tax-exempt financing has market effects and costs similar to other credit assistance, its current statutory structure gives it entitlement status and its use is unilaterally elected by the borrower. Effective control can only be achieved through legislated changes to the tax code. Although tax-exempt credit is the most visible and direct form of tax expenditure influencing credit allocations, others not treated 48 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 here but described in Special Analysis G are also important. These include: (1) investment tax credits, (2) personal deductions for mortgage interest and property taxes, and (3) the all-savers certificate. Table F-10. TAX EXEMPT FINANCING; PRESENT VALUE OF TAX SUBSIDIES TO NEW ISSUES (In billions of dollars) Calendar years 1 Actual Total new Issues, long-term tax exempts State and local government uses 2 Private purpose tax-exempts Housing bonds Private hospitals Student loans Pollution control Other private business (IDBs) Subsidy estimates (new issues only): 3 All new issues-. Annual tax loss, all new issues Present value, tax loss Present value, borrower benefit Private purpose issues only: Present value, private use tax loss Estimated 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 24.9 23.6 23.9 24.2 30.5 34.9 26.4 8.5 3.0 1.9 0.1 2.1 1.4 46.8 34.4 12.4 3.8 3.3 0.1 3.0 2.2 49.1 34.2 14.9 5.9 2.2 0.3 48.1 23.3 24.8 53.7 25.6 3.5 2.4 0.6 2.5 7.1 53.7 28.0 25.7 6.9 3.5 1.0 3.8 10.5 63.1 27.8 35.3 13.2 3.9 1.4 4.2 12.6 1.6 0.8 7.6 5.3 0.7 7.1 5.1 0.7 7.3 5.7 0.9 7.8 5.9 (M I1) (M 5.04 7.21 160.7 176.5 4.99 7.44 175.1 191.2 5.86 8.57 188.9 207.7 1.1 10.0 6.5 (*) 1.2 2.8 12.2 28.1 13.5 2.8 0.5 2.5 11.2 14.8 12.4 1.8 16.1 14.1 1.9 16.3 15.0 2.7 19.6 16.0 3.2 20.5 11.5 3.7 23.9 16.5 2.7 3.9 4.9 8.4 10.3 9.8 13.4 5.66 8.43 225.0 239.5 5.20 5.52 8.73 275.4 287.5 5.92 9.63 296.4 309.3 7.85 11.94 320.4 336.2 10.83 14.17 341.5 363.2 9.78 13.78 368.3 395.4 MEMORANDUM AAA State and local bond yields (Moodys), percent.. AAA corporate bond yields (Moodys), percent Outstanding, long-term tax-exempt issues Outstanding, all tax-exempt issues 5.22 7.39 146.1 161.8 6.42 8.83 205.3 223.8 8.02 249.8 261.4 1 9 7 6 - 8 0 estimates of tax-exempt volume and distribution and 1 9 8 1 - 8 3 projections are by the Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis. Estimates are unavailable for private purpose tax-exempts before 1976. Includes some private purpose tax-exempt debt, and advance refunding, that could not be identified or classified. Assumed: Average marginal tax rate = .42; taxable securities of comparable quality; average maturity = 18 years; discount rate = Aaa corporate bond yield. Sources: Federal Reserve Board, Public Securities Association; subsidy estimates by Office of Management and Budget. 1 2 3 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 INTEREST SUBSIDIES Federal credit programs provide credit to selected groups on more favorable terms than would otherwise be available in private credit markets. The largest subsidy is usually in the form of a lower interest rate, although other subsidies, such as longer maturities, are commonly offered as well. For direct loans the subsidy arises through formulas in law setting interest rates at a fixed ceiling or tying them to fluctuations in some other rate. While risk is a crucial factor in determining private interest rates, it may be largely ignored in setting rates for direct loan programs. For guaranteed loans, the subsidy usually occurs because the guarantee removes all risk of default facing the lender; the lender is therefore willing to lend to the guaranteed borrower at lower rates that do not include a premium for risk. This section presents estimates of the subsidies provided through lower interest rates for Federal direct loan programs and one guaranteed loan program. The total interest subsidy is measured by estimating the difference between the interest payments on a federally assisted loan and those the borrower would otherwise have paid in the private market. The reduced interest rate lowers payments throughout the life of a loan. The measurement of the interest subsidy therefore requires that the series of annual interest payment reductions be converted into a single discounted present value. This capitalizes all future payments and allows comparison of the value of the federally assisted and wholly private loan through a single number. There is no generally accepted method for quantifying the present value of interest subsidies in Federal credit programs. Measurement of the total subsidy depends on an accurate assessment of what the wholly private interest rate would have been. For many Federal credit programs this private rate is impossible to find, either because the risk of a Government-assisted loan is unknown or because comparable loans are not made in the private market. Federally assisted borrowers and projects are frequently riskier than the private market would accept under any terms. To make a rough estimate of the subsidy without complete private rate information, two simplified approaches are used, reflecting, first, the value of the subsidy to borrowers, and, second, the cost to the Government. The first approach compares Federal credit program rates against aggregate data on private sector rates for the most comparable loans. It is intended to show the value of the subsidy to the borrower. This approach relys on broad categories of loan types rather than detailed analysis of individual program characteristics SPECIAL ANALYSIS F 51 (see table 11a).11 For example, the subsidies on Rural Electrification Administration loans are computed by comparing the average REA interest rates against rates for Aaa utility bonds. The private rates are proxies for the actual private rate because they are calculated and compared at such a high level of aggregation. For some programs the rates shown here are better proxies than for others. The second approach applies a single interest rate to all Federal credit programs: the 10-year Treasury bond rate averaged over the last 6 months (see table F-llb). This calculation, in contrast to the calculations for table 11a, is intended to estimate the cost to the Federal Government of the interest subsidies. The estimates in table F - l l b are less than the estimates in table F - l l a in large part because the Government can borrow to fund its lending more cheaply than can private lending institutions. Thus, the value of the subsidy to the borrower is larger than the cost of the loan to the Government. Remaining costs of the subsidy fall on the economy at large in the form of upward interest rate pressure for unsubsidized borrowers. The subsidy estimates are intended to provide a picture of the order of magnitude of interest subsidies, and to suggest the relative distribution of subsidies among the programs. Each of the two methods quantifies only part of the total subsidy provided in Federal credit programs. The measurement of interest subsidies currently includes: —the effect of the Federal Government making a direct loan at an interest rate lower than a normal private borrower would have to pay on a similar loan in the private market; —the effect of the Federal Government paying part of the interest costs of a private loan. The measurement of interest subsidies does not include: —the value of the Government's assumption of risk on a direct loan or the value of a loan guarantee; —the effect of making credit available to unusually risky borrowers, under unusually risky terms (such as a higher loan to value ratio or a long maturity), or for unusually risky ventures; i.e., the effect of not charging premiums that would be adequate to cover probable losses on direct or guaranteed loans; —the effect of not charging fees or premiums that would cover the administrative costs of the program. Thus, the estimates of interest subsidies only measure part of the total subsidy that is provided in Federal credit programs. Since the amount of interest rate reduction resulting from the Government's assumption of risk on guaranteed loans is not measured, interest subsidies are calculated only for guaranteed student loans, where 11 Private sector rates are computed from data published in the Federal Reserve Bulletin. 52 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 the Federal Government directly contributes all or part of the interest payments on the loan. The sensitivity of interest subsidy estimates to assumptions.— Estimates of interest subsidy in tables F - l l a and F - l l b are highly sensitive to changes in assumptions. A single percentage point change in the assumed private sector interest rate can substantially change the present value of the interest subsidy. For instance, if the rate on a $100 million direct loan is 10% and the average private sector interest rate on loans in the same category is also 10% (assuming that the discount rate is the same as the private market interest rate), then there is no explicit interest subsidy. If, however, the private market interest rate is assumed to be 12% then the present value of the interest subsidy is $15 million, and if the interest rate is assumed to be 15% then the present value of the interest subsidy increases to $31 million. The present value will also change dramatically depending on the maturity and amortization plan. For instance, the present value of the subsidy on a 10%, $100 million loan over 30 years at a 15% discount rate is $31 million. This subsidy would be only $18 million if the maturity were 10 years. With a 30-year maturity and a 5-year grace period the subsidy would be $66 million, more than twice the subsidy of a nondeferred loan. Since the estimates are so sensitive to the assumptions they are likely to change considerably from year to year, regardless of policy changes. Nevertheless, the estimates of the interest subsidies in credit programs for 1983 can be used to indicate which programs are more deeply subsidized than others, and the general magnitude of the subsidies. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F 53 Table F - l la. INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUES FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs DIRECT LOANS Funds Appropriated to the President: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit ..,, Functional development assistance .. Agriculture: Price support and related programs Agricultural credit Rural housing Farm export creditsPublic Law 480 Rural development Rural telephone bank Rural electric and telephone , Commerce Health and Human Services: Health maintenance organizations.... Other health programs Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration.. Government National Mortgage Assn Housing for elderly and handicapped Housing rehabilitation.... Low rent public housing Interior: Water resources.... Indian loan funds.. Percent Years Market rate discount Obligations or commitments 1981 1982 Market rate 1983 Present value of subsidy stream 1983 1982 1981 2.8 33.2 274 216 895 16.8 199 157 651 12.0 8.0 664 920 1,919 16.8 96 133 278 2.5 36.5 387 389 392 16.8 291 292 295 13.1 0.7 5,872 8,600 6,600 19.5 270 395 303 9.0 3.6 7.0 37.2 9,229 6,079 8,196 6,371 7,218 3,895 18.9 15.1 2,329 4,126 2,069 4,324 1,822 2,644 2.3 30.0 821 754 767 16.8 597 548 558 7.8 40.0 1,669 1,046 948 20.3 999 626 567 12.3 30.0 160 185 185 17.1 43 50 50 4.7 11.2 35.0 25.3 1,117 132 1,100 44 700 17.1 16.8 736 40 725 13 461 12.0 20.0 27 41 38 20.6 10 15 14 6.9 13.4 30 13 1 18.0 13 5 10.0 20.0 414 383 311 15.1 112 104 84 7.5 20.0 1,836 1,993 6 15.1 718 779 2 9.0 40.0 873 819 453 15.1 339 318 176 3.0 20.0 85 68 15.1 49 40 12.3 0.3 2,196 1,500 1,000 15.1 10 7 5 9.4 14.5 35.0 30.0 25 11 27 17 39 22 11.6 20.6 4 3 5 5 7 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 54 Table F - l l a . INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUES FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE— Continued (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs Bonneville Power Administration.. Transportation.Highway programs 1 Rail programs Treasury: College housing , Veterans Administration: Housing programs Insurance policy loans 1 Education loans District of Columbia... Education Foundation: Student financial assistance Student loan insurance . . Export-Import Bank... NCUA Small Business Administration: Business loans Disaster loans Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies and programs Federal Financing Bank: Disbursement of loans otherwise guaranteed Percent Years Grand total 1982 19bl Market rate discount 1983 Market Present value of subsidy stream 1981 1983 1982 1.3 19.5 2 40 62 17.1 1 27 42 8.4 4.9 40.0 20.6 13 39 19 143 32 2 11.6 16.8 3 22 5 79 8 1 3.0 30.0 138 344 100 15.1 92 230 67 14.6 29.0 739 757 781 15.1 22 23 23 6.9 8.3 9.2 40.0 10.0 30.0 241 7 134 120 3 145 153 2 145 19.7 18.0 13.2 151 2 36' 75 1 39 96 1 39 1.7 13.0 183 179 18.0 104 102 9.0 10.5 14.0 12.0 11.0 2.0 238 5,431 76 410 4,400 390 548 3,830 478 18.0 20.6 19.7 79 1,808 4 15.0 10.5 8.5 9.0 871 1,522 712 640 554 440 20.6 20.6 144 452 117 190 91 131 3.7 0.9 102 83 81 17.1 6 5 5 11.0 5.1 497 80 42 16.8 61 10 5 15.1 4.8 15,060 15,204 16,355 16.8 531 536 576 57,194 56,351 48,994 14,502 13,670 10,499 7,762 9,500 10,300 2,563 3,137 3,401 64,956 65,851 59,294 17,065 16,807 13,990 TotalDirect loan subsidies 2 GUARANTEED LOANS Education Foundation: Student loan insurance Obligations or commitments 9.0 12.0 18.0 135 1,465 • 21 181 1,275 25 SPECIAL ANALYSIS F 1 2 55 There is no specified maturity period. Forty years is used as a proxy for an indefinite maturity. Only explicit subsidies are represented; implicit arising from the Government's assumption of risks are not included. (See text) Table F - l l b . INTEREST SUBSIDY COSTS FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs DIRECT LOANS Funds Appropriated to the President: Economic support fund Foreign military sales credit Functional development assistance Agriculture: Price support and related programs Agricultural credit Rural housing Farm export creditsPublic Law 480 Rural development Rural telephone bank Rural electric and telephone Commerce Health and Human Services: Health maintenance organizations.... Other health programs Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration.. Government National Mortgage Assn Housing for elderly and handicapped Housing rehabilitation.... Low rent public housing Percent Years 15,000 discount Obligations or commitments 1981 1982 Annual subsidy per $100 million 1983 Present value of subsidy stream 1983 1982 1981 2.8 33.2 274 216 895 10.5 191 150 623 12.0 8.0 664 920 1,919 2.0 63 87 181 2.5 36.5 387 389 392 10.9 280 281 283 13.1 0.7 5,872 8,600 6,600 2.3 82 120 92 9.0 3.6 7.0 37.2 9,229 6,079 8,196 6,371 7,218 3,895 3.8 10.2 1,524 4,113 1,354 4,311 1,192 2,635 2.3 30.0 821 754 767 10.6 571 524 534 7.8 40.0 1,669 1,046 948 6.9 764 479 434 12.3 30.0 160 185 185 2.6 27 32 32 4.7 11.2 35.0 25.3 1,117 132 1,100 44 700 9.2 3.4 684 29 673 10 428 12.0 20.0 27 41 38 2.6 4 7 6 6.9 13.4 30 13 1 5.9 10 4 10.0 20.0 414 383 311 4.2 111 102 83 7.5 20.0 1,836 1,993 6 6.1 712 773 2 9.0 40.0 873 819 453 5.8 336 315 174 3.0 20.0 85 68 9.1 49 39 12.3 0.3 2,196 1,500 1.8 10 7 1,000 4 56 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table F - l l b . INTEREST SUBSIDY COSTS FOR NEWLY COMMITTED FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCEContinued (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms / and programs Interior: Water resourcesIndian loan funds. Bonneville Power Administration. Transportation: Highway programs 1 Rail programs Treasury: College housing.... Veterans Administration: Housing programs Insurance policy loans 1 Education loans.... District of Columbia.. Export-Import Bank.. Foundation for Education Assistance: Student financial assistance Student loan insurance NCUA Small Business Administration: Business loans Disaster loans Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies and programs Federal Financing Bank acquisitions of loans otherwise guaranteed Obligations or commitments 1982 1981 Percent 15,000 discount Annual subsidy per $100 million 1983 Present value of subsidy stream 1981 9.4 35.0 27 5.3 14.5 30.0 17 0.5 1.3 19.5 40 10.1 8.4 40.0 13 19 32 6.4 4.9 20.6 39 143 2 8.0 3.0 30.0 138 344 100 10.1 14.6 29.0 739 757 781 0.4 6.9 40.0 241 120 153 7 3 2 4.6 2 7.6 18 123 8.3 10.0 9.2 30.0 134 145 145 5.3 47 10.5 11.0 5,431 4,400 3,830 3.2 947 1.7 13.0 183 179 9.0 14.0 12.0 2.0 15.0 8.5 10.5 3.7 11.0 15.1 9.0 0.9 5.1 4.8 Total—direct loan subsidies 2 8.9 238 410 548 4.4 76 390 478 0.5 871 712 554 1,522 640 440 102 83 497 3.1 231 81 6.3 5 42 2.4 43 15,060 15,204 16,355 57,194 56,351 48,994 7,762 9,500 10,300 11,255 GUARANTEED LOANS Education Foundation: Student loan insurance 9.0 12.0 4.4 1,876 SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S F 57 Table F - l l b . I N T E R E S T S U B S I D Y C O S T S FOR N E W L Y C O M M I T T E D F E D E R A L C R E D I T A S S I S T A N C E — Continued (In millions of dollars) Average loan terms Agency and programs Grand total Percent Years 15,000 discount Obligations or commitments 1981 1982 1983 64,956 65,851 59,294 Annual subsidy per $100 million Present value of subsidy stream 1981 1982 1983 13,131 13,111 10,357 ^here is no specified maturity period. Forty years is used as a proxy for an indefinite maturity. explicit subsidies are represented; implicit subsidies arising from the Government's assumption of risks are not included. (See text). 2 Only PROPOSED LEGISLATION The administration is seeking to reduce the amount of direct loans and loan guarantees issued by the Federal Government. Its primary method for accomplishing this goal is to reduce the appropriation bill limitations on credit programs, and in many cases to terminate the programs. The proposed new levels of activity are displayed in tables F-3 and F-6. For several programs expected to continue operation, changes in authorizing law are being sought that would reduce subsidies and Federal costs. This section outlines the legislative proposals. For the Guaranteed Student Loan program the administration is submitting legislation to restrict eligibility for subsidized loans and reduce the subsidy. The proposed changes include: raising the origination fee from 5 to 10%, extending the needs analysis to students at all income levels, allowing graduate and professional students to borrow only under the less subsidized auxiliary loan program (and increasing their borrowing limits), and discontinuing special allowance interest subsidy payments in the third year following a student's graduation or withdrawal from school. The Federal Housing Administration's (FHA) mortgage insurance programs are the subject of legislation proposed to keep the FHA abreast of recent changes in housing finance and to reflect an expanding role for private mortgage insurers. The legislation would allow FHA to insure variable rate and shared appreciation mortgages for single family homes, and would expand the graduated payment program to multi-family mortgages. At the same time, the program would be targeted to home buyers not adequately served by private insurers, such as first-time home buyers. An additional set of provisions (such as eliminating ceilings on the interest rates and points charged, and requiring that premiums be paid at the time of purchase rather than throughout the life of the mortgage) would assist FHA in achieving efficiency. A 0.5% origination fee is proposed for the Veterans Administration mortgage insurance program and an increase in the commitment fee is proposed for the 58 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 FNMA mortgage-backed securities program, which provides a secondary market for FHA and VA guaranteed mortgages. The administration is also proposing changes in the eligibility rules and loan terms of the Farmers Home Administration's disaster loan program, including discontinuing loans to creditworthy borrowers, raising the interst rate on most of its loans from 8% to the cost of Treasury borrowing, and lowering the maximum loan size from $500,000 to $300,000. The District of Columbia is preparing to turn fully to the private market for all its borrowing. Legislation is now being proposed to end the District's authority to borrow short term from the Federal Government. RECENTLY ENACTED LEGISLATION This section summarizes legislation affecting Federal credit programs enacted during the first session of the 97th Congress. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 was the single most important piece of credit program legislation enacted in 1981. The act set limits on the credit to be extended by the Farmers Home Administration, the Export-Import Bank, and the Small Business Administration, and for the food for peace program, the District of Columbia and the GNMA tandem plan. It also changed the operation of several credit programs. The Farmers Home Administration program standards and loan terms were revised as follows: —Water and waste disposal and community facilities loan interest rates and maturities must be comparable to similar municipal securities, except that a 5% rate is allowed if the loan enables health or sanitation standards to be met in certain areas. —Farm ownership and operating loans on prime farmland will have interest rates increased by 2%. For limited resource borrowers, the interest rate is reduced by 3% below the FmHA rates for comparable loans to other borrowers. —Emergency loans to cover losses suffered will be at market rates if the borrower is creditworthy and at 8% if the borrower cannot obtain credit elsewhere. Interest rates for Rural Electrification Administration direct loans were set at 5%, except for utilities facing "extreme financial hardship" a 2% rate was allowed. The Federal Financing Bank was also directed to provide loans to any borrower receiving an REA guarantee. Steps were mandated to make the National Consumer Cooperative Bank a fully private lending institution, including redemption of all Federal Government equity by December 31, 1981, and new procedures for selecting the board of directors. After that date, new SPECIAL ANALYSIS F 59 obligations of the Bank will not be backed in any way by the Federal Government. The Bank will continue to serve the cooperative organizations it was originally designated to serve. For the guaranteed student loan program a needs test was reinstituted for students with family incomes over $30,000, restricting the amount of loan to remaining need after expected family contributions are estimated. Interest rates on the auxiliary loan program for parents and graduate students were set at 12% or 14%, depending on Treasury bill interest rates. Finally, a 5% origination fee was established to be paid through the lenders to the Federal Government. The act made changes in the business and disaster loan programs of the Small Business Administration. For disaster loans: —Interest rates on loans to creditworthy businesses were raised from the Government's cost of money to market levels. —The maximum amount of loss coverage for a business was reduced from 100 to 85%. —Interest rates on loans to noncreditworthy businesses and homeowners were raised from 5% and 3%, respectively, to 8% and one-half of the Government's cost of money (but not to exceed 8%). —Authorization for nonphysical disaster loans was ended. For business loans, interest rates on direct loans (except for a rate of 3% on loans to the handicapped) have been raised to the Government's cost of money. Minor changes in the act included: —Standards were set for federally insured health student loans, including limits on annual loans of $20,000 and on total indebtedness of $80,000 for medical students. Repayment terms were also set. —CCC Farm Storage Facility Loans were given discretionary rather than entitlement status. —The authority of local public housing agencies to borrow from the Federal Financing Bank with HUD backing was limited to $400 million. —The methods for Federal Housing Administration foreclosure on defaulted mortgages were reformed to make the foreclosure process shorter and less costly to FHA. —The authority of the Student Loan Marketing Association to provide a secondary market for all types of insured student loans, including health profession loans, was expanded. —The Rural Development Loan Fund was transferred to the Department of Health and Human Services from the Community Services Administration. 60 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 —The Health Maintenance Organization loan program was given flexibility to adjust interest rates to keep them comparable to Treasury interest rates. Several other recently enacted bills affected credit programs. The Overseas Private Investment Corporation Amendments Act of 1981 extended OPIC's authority to issue investment insurance, loans and loan guarantees through 1985. The act allows OPIC to operate in countries with per capita incomes up to $2,950 in 1979 dollars. The previous maximum had been $1,000 in 1975 dollars. The District of Columbia Bond Amendments of 1981 gave the District of Columbia additional debt management powers and flexibility to allow it to begin borrowing in the private bond market, rather than from the Federal Government. For example, the act authorizes the District to secure general obligation bonds by creating a security interest in specified District revenues, such as certain tax receipts. The Agriculture and Food Act of 1981 extended the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) price support programs, the Public Law 480 food export program and the rural development programs of the Farmers Home Administration for 4 years. The CCC was given greater flexibility to raise loan interest rates and other terms above minimum levels, in order to reduce subsidies. The act established an export credit revolving fund for use by CCC in carrying out a wide variety of direct loan export activities. This fund, however, has not yet received an appropriation. The International Security and Development Cooperation Act of 1981 extends through 1983 the authorization for the economic support fund, the foreign military sales credit program, the functional development assistance programs of the Agency for International Development, as well as several noncredit programs. The programs are authorized without major changes in operations. A number of provisions regulate the amount and type of aid to be provided to specific countries. The Mortgage Purchase Amendments of 1981 remove certain limitations on the mortgage loan purchase authority of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC) and the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), allowing FHLMC and FNMA to purchase a larger amount of existing conventional mortgages from thrift institutions. The purchase activity is intended to enable residential lenders to replace older mortgages, frequently carrying relatively low interest yields, with more highly liquid and higher yielding securities. The act also authorizes FHLMC to purchase loans from the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This provision is intended to assist the FDIC and the NCUA manage their loan portfolios more efficiently. SPECIAL ANALYSISF206 TAX EXPENDITURES The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G TAX EXPENDITURES The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344) requires a listing of "tax expenditures" in the budget. The act defines "tax expenditures" as "revenue losses attributable to provisions of the Federal tax laws which allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or which provide a special credit, a preferential rate of tax or a deferral of tax liability." The very term "tax expenditure" is misleading in several respects, and there are formidable difficulties in trying to define the underlying concept or to measure the effect of "special" tax provisions. Rarely, if ever, is it the case that a tax provision is actually equivalent to direct outlays by the Government for purchase of goods or services. These outlays involve a direct preemption of the production inputs used to produce the goods or services the Government buys. "Tax expenditures" never involve such a direct impact on the use of production inputs. Instead, the effect of most special tax provisions is to subsidize a particular activity. Their operation is therefore directly comparable only to those outlay programs, such as milk price supports and rent subsidies, that also provide a subsidy to particular activities. For this reason, the term "tax subsidies" is more descriptive of these special tax provisions than is "tax expenditures." The term "tax expenditures" is also unfortunate in that it seems to imply that Government has control over all resources. If revenues which are not collected due to "special" tax provisions represent Government "expenditures," why not consider all tax rates below 100% "special," in which case all resources are effectively Government-controlled? Previous budgets have indefensibly included such items as graduated corporate tax rates and the maximum tax on earned income as if only the highest rates are "normal." This year's analysis deals exclusively with "tax subsidies," and uses the misleading term "tax expenditures," only where that term is required by the Budget Act. The definition of tax subsidies relies on the distinction between the "normal" or "reference" provisions of the tax structure, which are necessary to make the tax operational, and the "special" provisions which are exceptions to the reference tax provisions designed to further functional program objectives, such as health care, export promotion, or employment of 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 the handicapped. This distinction between the reference and special provisions is not essential for tax policy purposes. For certain budget purposes, however, it is useful to distinguish between these two kinds of provisions. For example, review of housing policy would be incomplete without estimates of both direct outlays and those tax subsidies that are directed to the housing function. The reference tax provisions are those which deal with the basic structural features of the income tax. These features include the definition of income subject to tax and allowable deductions, including cost recovery for depreciable assets; taxable units and their threshold levels of taxability; the relationship between the taxation of corporations and their shareholders; the schedule of tax rates; the basic tax accounting rules, including the accounting period for taxation and whether income is taxed as it is realized or as it accrues; the treatment of international transactions; and the system of tax administration. All of these structural features must be dealt with in some manner in order to have an operational income tax. In contrast to these reference provisions, it would be possible to have a full operational income tax which did not contain any of the special provisions which give rise to tax subsidies. However, while the distinction between the reference and special provisions of the Code may be clear as general concepts, there are inevitable difficulties in applying these concepts to obtain a definitive list of tax subsidies. The inclusion of wages in the tax base is a clear example of reference tax structure, just as the exclusion of fringe benefits is due to special provisions, and therefore clearly constitute tax subsidies. A less clear example is provided by the capital gains provisions, which apply to a broad class of transactions and taxpayers, but which are exceptions to the general rules governing taxation of income from other sources. As explained more fully below, the capital gains provisions are considered to involve a tax subsidy. It should be noted that other analyses of tax subsidies in the income tax have used standards quite different from the standard of the reference tax structure used here. The standard of an "ideal" income tax has often been suggested for delineating tax subsidies. However, there is no common agreement on the details of such a normative standard and many would regard such a standard as an impractical tax base. In practice, previous tax subsidy lists have not used a clear standard. Instead, they have sometimes been simply a list of possible "tax reform" items. Both the "ideal tax" and "menu of tax reforms" approaches lack the pragmatic advantage of the standard used here of identifying those provisions of the Internal Revenue Code that deal with basic structural features of the income tax, and those that provide special exceptions to those structural rules. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 5 Tax subsidies have objectives similar to those programs funded through direct appropriations. There are numerous examples of this. Direct expenditures and tax subsidies reduce the cost of ship acquisition by shipping companies; direct interest subsidies and the issuance of tax-exempt bonds result in lower financing costs for eligible issuers of mortgage bonds or for eligible businesses. Similarly, State and local governments benefit both from direct grant programs and from the ability to borrow funds at tax-exempt rates; individuals benefit both from direct medicare payments and from the deductibility of medical expenses for income tax purposes; and individuals also benefit both from social security payments and from the tax exemption of these payments. This special analysis contains quantitative estimates of tax subsidies to be used in conjunction with the budget review. Like the formal listing of comparable direct outlays, the listing of specific tax subsidy items implies neither approval or disapproval of the special provisions of the tax system that authorize them. Further, distinguishing between the reference tax structure and exceptions leading to tax subsidies does not imply that features of the reference tax system as enacted should be exempt from periodic analysis and review. Many features of what is now defined as the normal tax structure, such as the rate structure, exemption levels and basic accounting rules, have major effects upon the level and composition of economic activity and the distribution of income. Although the Internal Revenue Code contains individual income, corporate income, estate and gift, excise and employment taxes that include special provisions that have expenditure program-like objectives, this analysis deals only with deviations from the reference structure in the taxation of individual and corporate income. DEFINING T A X SUBSIDIES For a provision to involve a tax subsidy, two conditions are necessary: —The provision must be "special" in that it applies to a narrow class of transactions or taxpayers; and —There must be a "general" provision to which the "special" provision is a clear exception. If these two conditions are satisfied, the special tax provision clearly has the characteristic of a direct outlay program: a program objective and a method of reimbursing program costs. Some examples will illustrate the application of these conditions to specific provisions of the Internal Revenue Code. Under the general provisions of the income tax code, interest received from any source is includable in income subject to tax. However, a special provision allows interest on obligations of State and local governments to be excluded from taxable income. The 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 exclusion is therefore considered a tax subsidy. A second example is the allowance of deductions for homeowners' mortgage interest and property taxes paid. Under the general provisions of the Code, no deductions are allowed for any expenses allocable to income exempt from tax. The income from homeownership, that is, the (imputed) rental value of owner-occupied housing, is exempt from tax under the reference income tax rule requiring "realization." The special provisions which allow homeowners to reduce their housing costs by deducting mortgage interest and property taxes are therefore considered tax subsidies. Much more difficult definitional issues are raised by the capital gains provisions. These provisions apply to a very broad class of transactions and taxpayers, and they constitute the basic provisions governing the taxation of gains from the sale of capital assets held more than one year. On these grounds it can be argued that the capital gains provisions do not involve a tax subsidy. However, under the capital gains provisions income from the sale of capital assets held more than one year is taxed in a different manner than income from any other source. Because the reference provisions for taxing income without regard to source are more general than the capital gains provisions, capital gains has been retained on the list of tax subsidies. While the preceding examples illustrate provisions that have previously been considered tax subsidies, some items included on previous lists should not be considered tax subsidies. As noted above, graduated corporate rates and the maximum tax on earned income clearly do not involve subsidies. Another example is provided by the exclusion from the tax base of Government transfer payments, such as public assistance benefits, where there is little or no relationship between the benefit payment to the recipient and any user charge, or tax, previously paid or service performed by the recipient. Under the general provisions of the Internal Revenue Code, gifts and other receipts of payments for which no value is exchanged are specifically excluded from taxable income. Therefore, the exclusion of Government transfer payments should not be considered a tax subsidy, because the exclusion is not a special provision. A further illustration of the definition of tax subsidies is provided by the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS) provisions enacted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Any income tax requires a set of rules for determining how the cost of depreciable assets is recovered. The ACRS provisions now constitute the general income tax rules for that purpose. To see this, one need only ask: If ACRS is "special," what is the "general" rule in the Internal Revenue Code governing the recovery of cost of depreciable property to which ACRS is an exception? The treatment of ACRS may be SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 7 contrasted with that of the investment tax credit, which has very similar economic effects for machinery and equipment. The investment credit is considered a tax subsidy because, unlike ACRS, it does not deal with one of the basic structural elements of an income tax. Note further that the fact that the ACRS provisions are clearly a divergence from any measure of economic income is not relevant to the determination that they do not constitute a tax subsidy. Because they set forth general rules, the ACRS provisions are part of the reference rules, not a tax subsidy, and therefore do not appear in table G - l . They are, nevertheless, very important provisions of the reference tax structure, both because of their sizeable revenue cost ($205 million in 1981, $7,250 million in 1982, and $12,670 million in 1983), and because of their importance ^s investment incentives. Other items enacted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 which are properly considered tax subsidies, including the "safe harbor" leasing provision, are included in table G - l under the appropriate budget classification. Several issues relating to the distinction between the reference structure of the income tax system and tax subsidy provisions are discussed in the following paragraphs. • Threshold income levels for tax liability.—The reference structure includes those tax code provisions that determine threshold levels of income below which no tax liability is imposed for the different types and sizes of taxpaying units. These threshold levels have been affected by legislated changes in personal exemptions and standard deductions in recent years. However, the additional personal exemptions for taxpayers 65 and over and for the blind result in tax subsidies because they are special provisions directed at groups in special circumstances. • The progressive rate schedules.—The progressive rate schedules for the individual and corporate income taxes are a part of the reference tax structure, as would be a proportional or even a regressive rate schedule. Tax subsidies do not result because some income from any source is taxed at lower rates than other income. The income averaging provision of the code for individuals is also considered to be part of the reference structure. • Separate rate schedules for single and married taxpayers, married taxpayers filing separately, and heads of households.— Existing provisions regarding the definition of taxpaying units and separate rate schedules for different types of taxpayers are considered part of the reference tax structure. The concept of tax subsidies is not characterized by any specific set of rate schedules applicable to the particular tax filing 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 units. Similarly, the deduction for secoiid earners enacted in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 is part of the reference tax structure. • Forms of business organization.—The tax law recognizes different forms of business organization including corporations, partnerships and Subchapter S Corporations treated in a manner somewhat similar to partnerships, cooperatives, mutual insurance companies and individual proprietorships. The provisions of the tax law that accommodate different forms of business organization do not generally result in tax subsidies so long as income is subject to tax at either the corporate or the individual level. • Treatment of individuals and corporations as separate taxpaying entities.—The separate taxation of individuals and regular corporate entities is part of the reference tax structure. • Deduction of business expenses.—The deduction of business expenses is necessary to determine taxable income under the reference rules of the tax code. Tax subsidies, therefore, do not result when deductions for "ordinary and necessary" business expenses are taken. No attempt was made in this analysis to determine whether certain expenses such as those for entertainment and meals should not only reduce the taxable income of employers, but should also be excluded from the taxable income of the employees receiving these in-kind benefits. • Foreign tax credits.—The reference structure of the income tax includes tax credits for foreign income taxes paid; this prevents the double taxation of income earned abroad. No estimates are made in this analysis for "negative tax subsidies" or tax penalties—that is, exceptions to the reference structure of income taxes that result in increased tax liabilities for certain groups of taxpayers to discourage specified kinds of activities. At present there are only a few such exceptions. One example is the nondeductibility of gambling losses in excess of gambling gains where gambling is engaged in for profit. Also, under the Tax Reform Act of 1976 deductions for the costs associated with the demolition of certain historic buildings were disallowed, and crediting of foreign taxes paid was denied taxpayers who cooperate with, or participate in, an international boycott. These are all Government receipts normally recorded as such in the budget, or as "offsetting receipts" netted against expenditures. MEASURING T A X SUBSIDIES Accounting for budget outlays on a functional or programmatic basis, as in Part 5 of the Budget, provides measures of the extent to which the Federal Government influences the allocation of re- SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 9 sources, and for what purposes. The functional purposes may be broadly divided into (1) the provision of "public goods and services"; (2) the provision of subsidies; and (3) the payment of transfers. Budget outlays for public goods and services, such as national defense and administration of justice, are used to acquire labor and capital services directly used in production of these goods. Subsidies, such as those for school lunches and to encourage the use of U.S. flag shipping, are intended to reduce market prices below the cost of resources used to produce them. Transfers, such as aid to families with dependent children and revenue sharing are intended to provide a level of income to recipients they otherwise could not achieve. Outlays are said to "reallocate resources" because they change the composition of GNP. The decisions to provide public goods and services, to subsidize certain prices (and hence outputs), and to make transfers directly result in producing a menu of goods and services that otherwise would not be produced because the resources to accomplish these purposes are either removed from the private sector by taxation or by borrowing. Functional budget outlay figures, then, provide a basis for evaluating programs and their total may serve as an index of the size of Government. They measure the resource cost of accomplishing the program objective, that is, outlays represent the market value of resources rechanneled, or reallocated, by Government. Since GNP is a (gross) measure of the market value of goods and services, the ratio of total budget outlays to GNP is often used as an indicator of the relative size of Government. Whether functional budget outlay figures are used to aid in program evaluation or to provide an aggregate of outlays for evaluating the degree to which Government reallocates resources, it is essential that the outlay figures be both consistent and comprehensive measures of resource costs. In this regard, the important characteristic of market prices, the measure of resource cost, is that prices are gross of all taxes. Thus, the market value of all goods and services summarized in GNP not only includes the effects of indirect taxes (sales and property taxes) on market prices, but also the before-tax incomes of suppliers of labor (wages) and capital (rent, interest, and profit). Consistency of budget outlay figures requires that they also be stated in pre-tax magnitudes. Generally, budget outlays for the purchase of goods and services used in the provision of public goods are gross of taxes; the payments to vendors and Government employees are gross incomes of the sellers out of which taxes will be paid as determined by the reference tax laws in effect. Similarly, subsidy outlays in the budget generally enter the gross incomes of sellers of subsidized goods and services, along with the remainder of the sales proceeds realized by sellers 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 as payments by private purchasers of the subsidized goods. Budget outlays that are transfer payments to individuals, being nontaxable under the reference tax laws, are automatically in "pre-tax" magnitudes. In some instances budget outlays for goods and services or subsidies are exempted from tax by a special tax provision. When this occurs, the outlay figure understates the resource cost of the program of which it is a part and is, therefore, not strictly comparable with other outlay amounts. For example, the budget outlays for certain housing and meal allowances of military personnel are not includable in their incomes and therefore understate the cost of this National Defense budget element. If this form of compensation of military personnel were treated by the generally applicable reference tax rule as income taxable to the employee, the Defense Department would have to make larger cash payments to its military personnel to leave them as well-off after-tax and to continue to attract and retain the same quantity and quality of personnel as with nontaxable allowances. The exemption from tax of these allowances involves a tax subsidy. When the tax subsidy is added to the tax-exempt budget outlay, this element of National Defense expenditure becomes comparable with other defense outlays. Resource reallocations in the nature of subsidies and transfers may be accomplished as easily by special exceptions to reference tax law rules as by the expenditure of appropriated funds. Just as U.S. flag shipping is encouraged by outlays authorized by the Congress, U.S. flag shipping is encouraged by special income tax provisions designed to reduce shipowners' cost of acquiring ships. A review of water transportation programs would therefore be incomplete if no accounting were made of these shipping subsidies implemented through the tax system. Similarly, a Federal budget accounting of aid provided State and local governments would be incomplete if it did not include the aid provided through tax exemption of interest received by holders of bonds issued by State and local governments. Nor is a total of Federal Government expenditures which omits these tax subsidies a comprehensive accounting of the resources reallocated by Federal Government fiscal measures. The estimates of tax subsidies in table G - l have been prepared this year to conform them to the objectives of functional budget accounting for outlays. Unlike the estimates of prior years, the table G - l figures are estimated as outlay equivalents, the magnitudes of which are consistent with direct budget outlays. The methodology used assumes that the program objective served by the special tax provision is to be achieved within all the constraints that determine market prices, and, hence, resource costs, including the rules of the reference tax structure and all other laws govern- SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 11 ing market exchanges. The estimated tax subsidy is therefore equal to the direct expenditure of funds that would be required to accomplish the same objective. If a program is paid for with appropriated funds, the Government makes payments to individuals and corporations who perform certain stipulated acts, or qualify for transfers by reason of their characteristics, and the recipients compute their tax liability under reference tax rules, and pay that amount to the Treasury. If a program is paid for with a tax subsidy, the special tax provision in effect permits recipients to compute their tax liability as if they had received the payment, but to actually pay to the Treasury an amount equal to their tax liability less the payment for which they have qualified. If the program is paid for with appropriated funds, the outlay is displayed in the budget, along with the full amount of taxes actually paid; but if the program is paid for with a tax subsidy, the budget effect is registered only as a reduction in Federal tax receipts. Therefore, the entries in table G - l may be viewed as amounts which should be both added to functional budget outlays and restored to budget receipts-to provide a more consistent and comprehensive display of the resource reallocations implied by fiscal measures. Note that these adjustments leave the budget balance unaltered. The basic difference between the new and previous tax subsidy estimates is that the new estimates account for the tax treatment of the implicit payment provided by the special tax provision. That is, the new estimates reflect the taxability of the payment under the reference tax rules. The following examples will clarify the difference in estimating technique for major classes of tax subsidies. 1. Government outlays that are exempt from tax.—Certain housing and meal allowances for military personnel are not included in the pre-tax incomes of military personnel, as has been noted. The former tax subsidy estimate for this item merely computed the tax that would be paid by military personnel if these payments had been taxable. The new estimates recognize that the intent of this personnel policy is to attract and retain the existing military force and that the pay equivalent taxable under reference tax law would therefore have to be sufficient to yield the same personnel an aftertax (disposable) income large enough to permit them the same housing and meal expenditure they now enjoy. Since virtually all military personnel have otherwise taxable incomes, the present estimate exceeds prior estimates which did not take account of this fact. The new tax subsidy estimate is measured in a consistent manner with other Defense Department outlays, whereas the previous estimate was not. 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 2. Subsidies to reduce market prices.—The new incremental R. & D. credit provides a subsidy for the performance of industrial R. & D. The firm qualifying for the credit is not required to include the credit in computing its taxable income, as it would were it to receive the same subsidy for R. & D. as a cash payment from the Government. Under the methodology used this year, the expenditure equivalent of the incremental R. & D. tax credit is estimated as the amont of subsidy subject to reference tax rules that would have to be paid firms for their qualified R. & D. expenditures and which would reduce their R. & D. costs by as much as the tax credit. This estimate of the R. & D. tax credit expenditure equivalent is larger than the amount that would have been estimated in previous tax subsidy budgets. Other tax subsidies that have the effect of reducing market prices are paid by reducing the tax payments of the purchaser. For example, the deduction allowed for medical insurance obviously reduces the cost of medical insurance to the purchasers of medical insurance. Under the reference tax rules, this deduction is unrelated to the computation of individuals' (purchasers') taxable income. Further, the full expenditure of the insured taxpayer enters the taxable incomes of medical practitioners and others whose fees are thereby covered. The expenditure equivalent of this subsidy is therefore simply the reduction in tax payments of purchasers resulting from the preferential deduction. The present tax subsidy estimate for this item is therefore made in the same manner that it was previously made. 3. Capital subsidies.—The Government may subsidize the acquisition of capital in the private sector in either of two ways. It might provide capital grants with respect to the acquisition of specified classes of assets, or it might provide preferential loans to entities acquiring particular assets. The investment tax credit for machinery and equipment is an example of a capital grant, similar to construction subsidies paid shipowners who have ships built in U.S. shipyards, or to the furnishing of equipment to Government contractors. In general, under the reference tax laws the beneficiary of a capital grant is regarded as not having contributed to the cost of the asset to the extent it is paid for by the Government. The asset is shown in the beneficiary's books at its net private cost. Depreciation of only the cost net of subsidy is recovered. However, in the case of the investment tax credit, the private firm is allowed cost recovery deductions for the entire cost of credited assets. Under the methodology used this year, this additional cost recovery is accounted for as an addition to the initial grant (tax credit) to derive the expenditure equivalent. Previous tax subsidy estimates have not accounted for this characteristic of the investment tax credit SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 13 and are therefore less than the expenditure equivalent reported in table G - l . Tax deferrals resulting from special accelerated capital cost recovery allowances are a form of Government lending. For example, under reference tax rules, investments for the discovery and development of mineral deposits would be capitalized when incurred and recovered as depletion allowances as production from the deposit ensues. Under special tax rules, however, these investment expenditures are recovered as deductions when made, reducing tax liability due and payable when the investment is made and increasing tax liability due and payable in later years. The deferral of tax, as compared with the tax stream that would have occurred under reference tax rules, is in the nature of an interest-free loan. The expenditure equivalent of tax deferrals shown in table G - l is comparable to the treatment of net lending in the outlay section of the budget. Only net new lending (deferrals) is accounted for; the subsidy element attributable to a zero interest rate on the deferral is not. Thus, the expenditure equivalents for deferral items shown in table G - l are measured in the same way as they were in previous tax subsidy budgets. The tax subsidy estimates reported in table G - l have been prepared by the Treasury Department and are based upon tax law enacted as of December 31, 1981. The estimates show the expenditure equivalent of each special tax provision by fiscal year. For those tax subsidies resulting from the exclusion from taxable income of Federal Government payments to individuals, the estimates of such payments upon which the tax subsidy estimates are based are those shown elsewhere in the budget; hence they reflect any proposed changes in these programs. The tax subsidy estimating procedure uses the same implicit assumption that governs estimates of out-year budget outlays, namely that the existing tax structure and all other institutional determinants of resource costs are given. It is also assumed that aggregate output and incomes remain at the levels that underlie the 1983 budget estimates. The tax subsidy estimates presented in this Special Analysis, including those computed on a "revenue loss" basis as shown in table G-2, are not estimates of the increase in Federal receipts that would accompany the repeal of the special provisions that give rise to the tax subsidies. There are several reasons for these differences. Tax subsidy estimates are based on the actual level of tax-subsidized activities; in some instances the level of these activities could be expected to change dramatically if the tax subsidy were removed. Because of these behavioral changes, the repeal revenue gain may be much lower than the tax subsidy figure. One example is the realization of capital gains, which could be expected to be 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 much lower if such gains were subject to tax at ordinary rates. Another example would be the response to the taxation of a particular employee fringe benefit which is currently untaxed, such as employer-paid medical insurance premiums. The expected response would be a decrease in the amount of employer-paid medical insurance premiums, but an increase in the amount of other fringe benefits, such as employers' pension contributions and educational assistance. Note that there would be analogous behavioral responses if many direct outlay programs were eliminated or curtailed. For example, the removal of a price support for a particular agricultural commodity could be expected to lead to somewhat higher production of other price-supported commodities. In such cases, the net reduction in budget outlays would be less than the savings from the eliminated (or curtailed) program. A second reason for the difference between repeal revenue gains and tax subsidy estimates is the effect that repeal would have on the aggregate level of income and economic growth. For example, all receipts as well as expenditure figures in the budget are based on projections of income and growth which assume the investment tax credit, as currently enacted, will continue to operate. If, however, the investment credit were repealed (or curtailed) without being replaced by a comparable investment incentive, the current projections of income and growth would have to be revised downward. Consistent with these revisions, receipts and expenditure projections would also have to be revised. The estimated net effect of repeal of the investment tax credit on receipts, therefore, would not be equivalent to the tax subsidy shown here. As is the case with estimates of proposed changes in tax law, tax subsidy estimates are computed on a "cash-flow" basis. However, for purposes of the present analysis, the estimates show the difference between tax subsidies under current law and tax subsidies under the assumption that a law without the particular tax subsidy provision had always been in effect. These figures, therefore, generally show larger amounts than would be saved in the first years of transition to a tax law without the special provisions. This is analogous to the "phase-out" likely to accompany reductions in outlay programs as previously authorized and appropriated funds are spent. The estimates take into account any changes scheduled under existing law, such as the phasing in or out of specific provisions. Tax subsidy estimates cannot simply be added together to obtain totals for functional areas or a grand total. Simply adding tax subsidies produces inaccurate totals because certain tax subsidies affect the value of other tax subsidies. This interaction may be demonstrated by comparing the result of deleting two tax subsidies simultaneously to that of deleting them separately. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 15 In some cases, the reduction in tax subsidies from the deletion of two tax subsidy items simultaneously would be greater than the sum of the reductions from the deletion of the two items separately. For example, if interest income from State and local government bonds were made taxable and capital gains on home sales were not deferred, more individuals would be pushed into higher tax brackets than if just one of these sources of income were treated under the normal rules of the tax code; the combined reduction in tax subsidies would be greater than the sum of the two separate effects. In other cases, the reduction in tax subsidies from the deletion of two items together would be smaller than the sum of the reductions considered separately. For example, if the deductibility of mortgage interest payments and homeowner property taxes were both repealed and the zero bracket amount (standard deduction) were left unchanged, more individuals who now itemize their deductions would opt for the zero bracket amount than if only one preference were repealed. The reduction in tax subsidies would therefore be lower from repealing both preferences together than the sum of the two estimates obtained from repealing each one separately. In general, elimination of several itemized deductions at one time would reduce tax subsidies by less than the sum of the reductions measured by eliminating each item separately because more taxpayers would use the zero bracket amount. Conversely, simultaneous elimination of multiple items that are exclusions from adjusted gross income would reduce tax subsidies by more than the sum of the individual reductions because more taxpayers would be pushed into higher tax brackets. Aside from these interaction effects, resources allocated to public purposes would not necessarily be reduced by the total amount of a group of tax subsidies if all the tax subsidy provisions in that group were removed together. Tax subsidies and other provisions of tax law have frequently been changed together or viewed as substitutes for one another. Furthermore, a direct outlay may be substituted for a tax subsidy. Thus, an aggregation of tax subsidies that did take interaction into account would simply indicate the total resources available for some combination of cutting tax rates, increasing outlays, and reducing the deficit. If a group of tax subsidy provisions were removed, the overall effects on budget receipts and on resource allocation and income distribution would therefore depend on the particular decisions made as to which changes in tax rates and outlays—out of a limitless number of alternatives—were used to compensate for their removal. Finally, although personal and corporation income tax returns continue to be the basic sources of data from which tax subsidy 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 estimates have been derived, the estimates are not reported separately for individuals and corporations. This is consistent with the treatment of outlays which are reported by function (or by Agency with fiscal responsibility), not by whether the payee is a person or a corporation. T A X SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION Estimates of tax subsidies for 1981-83 are grouped together by functional category in table G - l . Each tax subsidy has been classified in the functional category used for budget outlays into which it most closely fits. National defense,—The housing and meals provided military personnel, either in cash or in kind, are excluded from income subject to tax. Most of the disability related military pension income received by current retirees is also excluded. International affairs.—A U.S. citizen or resident alien who is a resident of a foreign country or who is present in one or more foreign countries for a prescribed period is allowed special tax relief on his foreign earnings. For years prior to 1982, the prescribed period for physical presence abroad was 17 out of 18 months. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 reduced the prescribed period to 11 out of 12 months beginning January 1, 1982. For 1980 and 1981, eligible taxpayers could deduct certain additional expenses incurred in living abroad. The deductions were for annual home leave travel, education of dependents through grade 12, a general cost of living allowance, and housing costs in excess of one-sixth of foreign earned income less the other special deductions. Taxpayers living in certain hardship areas could deduct an additional $5,000 per year. Taxpayers required to live in camps in hardship areas and individuals performing charitable services in less developed countries could elect to exclude $20,000 per year of foreign earned income instead of claiming the special deductions. These provisions did not apply to U.S. Government employees or persons paid from U.S. Government funds. Beginning in 1982, the deductions and exclusions described in the preceding paragraph no longer apply. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act, in 1982 eligible taxpayers may exclude $75,000 per year of foreign earned income and may exclude or deduct reasonable housing costs in excess of one-sixth of the salary of a civil servant at grade GS-14, step 1. The $75,000 exclusion increases by increments of $5,000 per year until it reaches $95,000 in 1986. These reliefs do not apply to persons who are employed by the U.S. Government; however, they do apply to persons who are not U.S. Government employees but who are paid from public funds. The tax-exempt status of certain allowances received by Federal em- SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 17 ployees working abroad has not changed. These exemptions also result in tax subsidies. The profits of a domestic international sales corporation (DISC) are not taxed to the DISC but instead are taxed to the shareholders (usually parent corporations) when distributed or deemed distributed to them. For DISC's with more than $150,000 in otherwise taxable income, the deemed distribution equals all income attributable to base period exports plus 50% of income attributable to exports in excess of the base period exports. Base period exports equal 67% of average annual exports during an earlier 4-year base period. For DISC's with less than $100,000 in otherwise taxable income, the deemed distribution equals 50% of total income. The base-period rule is phased in for DISC's with taxable income between $100,000 and $150,000. General science, space, and technology.—Research and development expenditures are intended to result in new products or processes, cost reductions, or other effects whose benefits will in nearly all cases continue into the future. Businesses may deduct all research and development expenditures in the year when they are incurred rather than amortize them over several years. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 added a credit for increasing research activities. The credit is equal to 15% of the increase in research expenditures over average expenditures in a base period. The base period for 1981 is 1980, for 1982 is 1980 and 1981, and for 1983 and subsequent years, the preceding 3 years. The credit expires in 1985. Energy.—Certain capital costs necessary to discover and develop certain fuel mineral properties may be deducted as current expenses rather than amortized over the useful life of the property. Included in this category are the intangible drilling costs of oil wells, such as the wages of drilling crews, and the cost of developing other mineral deposits, such as expenditures for mine shafts, tunnels and stripping. Intangible drilling costs for oil and gas wells are a preference item for purposes of the individual's minimum tax to the extent that such costs exceed either cost depletion or 10-year amortization. However, they may exclude intangible drilling costs from their minimum tax base to the extent that the deductions did not exceed oil and gas income. The same rules apply to intangible drilling costs of geothermal wells. Extractive industries generally use percentage depletion rather than cost depletion. Under cost depletion, actual outlays, to the extent not immediately recovered through expensing of exploration and discovery and development costs, may be deducted over the productive life of the property, much as businesses may take deductions for the depreciation of other capital goods, the cost of which 18 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 are capitalized when acquired. Percentage depletion is not likewise limited to the cost of the investment. Under percentage depletion, taxpayers may deduct a percentage of gross income from mineral production at rates ranging from 22% for oil and gas and certain other minerals to 5%; however, the deduction is limited to 50% of net income from the property or 65% of taxable income in the case of oil and gas. Percentage depletion for oil and natural gas is available only to limited quantities of output of independent oil and gas producers and royalty owners. In addition, the percentage depletion rate for oil and gas is being phased out from 22% through 1980 to 15% in 1984 and thereafter. Production from geothermal deposits is eligible for percentage depletion at the same rate as for oil and gas, but with no limit on output and no limitation with respect to qualified producers. In lieu of percentage depletion, royalties from coal deposits are treated as capital gains rather than ordinary income. A variety of tax incentives stimulate energy conservation and encourage conversion to energy sources other than oil or natural gas. Individuals may take a 15% income tax credit for home insulation and other energy-conserving components up to a maximum credit of $300. A credit of 40% of the first $10,000 of qualifying expenditures is allowed for expenditures on solar and other renewable energy source property. In addition to the 10% investment tax credit for machinery and equipment, a credit is allowed for business investments in specified energy property. A 10% additional credit is allowed for alternative energy property (i.e., property using fuel other than oil or natural gas, including biomass property); specially defined energy property (i.e., property used in an existing industrial, agricultural or commercial facility to reduce the amount of energy consumed or heat wasted); recycling equipment; shale oil equipment; cogeneration equipment; alumina electrolytic cells; certain intercity buses; and equipment for producing natural gas from geopressurized brine. An 11% additional credit is available for certain small-scale hydroelectric generating property, and a 15% additional credit is allowed for solar, wind, ocean thermal and geothermal equipment. A $3 per barrel of oil-equivalent production credit is provided for several forms of alternative fuels, but, as a general rule, is not available unless the price of oil drops below $29.50 (in 1979 dollars). The credit is available without this price limitation for processed wood fuel and steam produced from solid agricultural byproducts. Gasohol is exempt from the 4 cents per gallon Federal excise tax and there is a corresponding production income tax credit for alcohol used as a fuel in applications where the excise tax is not assessed. Certain small scale hydroelectric generating facilities owned by a governmental unit and facilities which produce steam SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 19 or alcohol from solid waste may be financed with tax-exempt industrial development bonds. Natural resources and environment—As is true for fuel-minerals, certain capital costs associated with exploration and development of nonfuel-minerals may be expensed rather than capitalized and depreciated over the life of the asset. Most nonfuel-mineral extractors also make use of percentage depletion rather than cost depletion. Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance the pollution control facilities of private firms is excluded from income subject to tax. Expenditures made before January 1, 1982 to preserve and restore certain historic structures were eligible for special accelerated depreciation under prior law. This provision did not apply to owner-occupied housing. The gains on the cutting of timber and royalties from iron ore deposits are taxed at rates applicable to long-term capital gains rather than ordinary income. Up to $10,000 ($5,000 for a married taxpayer filing a separate return) of direct costs incurred in a taxable year to forest or reforest a site for the commercial production of timber may be amortized over a 7-year period rather than capitalized and recovered when the timber is cut. The $10,000 of costs are also eligible for the 10% investment tax credit notwithstanding the nondepreciability of investments in timber stands. Agriculture.—Farmers, other than certain corporations and partnerships engaged in agriculture, are allowed to deduct certain costs as current expenses even though these expenditures are for inventories held at the end of the year or for capital improvements that are required to be capitalized under reference income accounting. Capital gains treatment generally applies to the sale of livestock and certain other agriculture products. Commerce and housing credit.—This category includes a number of tax subsidy provisions that also affect economic activity in other functional categories. In general, provisions related to investment, such as the investment tax credit, might alternatively have been classified under the natural resources and environment, energy, agriculture, or transportation categories. An exclusion of $200 ($400 on a joint return) is allowed for most dividend and interest income. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, beginning in 1984 the exclusion is reduced to $100 ($200 on a joint return) and is applicable only to dividend income. The interest on industrial development bonds issued by State and local governments is excluded from income subject to tax. 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Credit unions are exempt from Federal income taxes. Commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and savings and loan associations are permitted to deduct additions to bad debt reserves in excess of actual loss experience and reasonable expectations as to future losses. Mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations may deduct 40% of income provided they maintain stipulated fractions of their assets in "qualifying assets," primarily residential mortgages. Life insurance policies other than term policies generally contain a savings element. Savings in the form of policyholder reserves are accumulated from premium payments and interest is earned on the reserves. Such interest income is taxable neither as it accrues nor when received by beneficiaries. Interest paid on consumer credit is allowed as an itemized deduction for individuals. Owner-occupants of homes may deduct mortgage interest and property taxes (but not maintenance outlays or depreciation) as itemized nonbusiness deductions. Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance below-market rate mortgages for owner-occupied housing is excluded from income subject to tax. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1980 restricts the use of mortgage subsidy bonds with a State-by-State ceiling on the annual volume of such use for single family housing equal to 9% of the average of all mortgages that originated in the State during the preceding 3 years of $200 million, whichever is greater. A total ban on mortgage subsidy bonds for single family housing becomes effective January 1, 1984. Prior to the Tax Reform Act of 1976, taxpayers deducted interest and property tax payments made while a building was under construction rather than following the general rule of the code which requires that all costs of a depreciable asset be capitalized and be recovered over its recovery period. The 1976 act reduced this tax subsidy by requiring that construction period interest and taxes be capitalized and recovered over a 10-year period for noncorporate taxpayers. The provision is being phased in over a 7-year period with more generous transition rules available for housing projects receiving direct expenditure subsidies under Government housing programs. However, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 excepted from the construction period phase-in, interest and taxes on low-income housing, which can be expensed. Sixty percent of net long-term gains from the sale of capital assets may be excluded from income. The excluded 60% of net long-term gains is no longer included as a preference item in computing the minimum tax for individuals. However, the capital gains exclusion is treated as a preference item in the "alternative minimum tax." This tax is applicable only if the sum of a taxpay- SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 21 er's regular income and minimum tax is less than his alternative minimum tax. Half of net long-term capital losses and 100% of net short-term capital losses may be offset against ordinary income up to a maximum deduction of $3,000 per year with an unlimited carryforward. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, net capital gains from sales or exchanges occurring after June 9, 1981 are taxed at a maximum rate of 20%. This maximum rate is equal to the 40% inclusion rate times the maximum individual rate that will apply after 1981 of 50%. Corporations may elect a 28% alternative tax rate on capital gains. The tax subsidy is estimated on the assumption that these gains would otherwise be taxed at ordinary rates. Capital gains on the sale of a home are recognized only to the extent that the "adjusted sales price" exceeds the cost of a new home purchased and occupied within 2 years (increased from 18 months by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981) before or after the sale. If a new house is constructed, it must be occupied within 2 years after the sale. The "adjusted sales price" is the amount realized (gross proceeds less selling expenses) minus qualified "fixing up" expenses. To the extent that the gain on the sale of a home is not recognized, the basis of the home purchased is reduced, thereby resulting in a deferral of the gain. A loss on the sale of a home is not deductible. A taxpayer who is 55 years of age or older at the time of the sale of his principal residence may elect to exclude up to $125,000 (increased from $100,000 by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981) of gain from the sale. This is a once in a lifetime election. The gain on the sale of capital assets acquired by inheritance is computed as the excess of the sale price over their value at the time of the original owner's death, rather than as the excess over their value at the time of acquisition by the original owner. The estimate assumes that the difference in the computed gain would be taxed as part of the capital gain in the year of sale. The 10% investment tax credit is applied to the cost of qualifying property (generally, tangible, depreciable personal property used in a trade or business) in the 5-, 10-, and 15-year recovery classes under the Accelerated Cost Recovery System (ACRS). Assets in the 3-year recovery class are entitled to a 6% credit. Notwithstanding the reduction in cost of acquiring qualified property provided by the credit, taxpayers may recover the original cost gross of the credit. As a general rule, the credit cannot be claimed for investments in land or buildings or for property used abroad. The investment tax credit may be claimed as progress payments are made on property that takes 2 or more years to construct. Prior to the Revenue Act of 1978, the maximum credit allowed against income tax liability in a taxable year was generally limited to $25,000 plus 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 50% of tax liability in excess of $25,000. The 1978 act raised the excess liability percentage to 60% for 1979 and increases it through annual increments of 10 percentage points to 90% by 1982. Before enactment of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, excess credits could generally be carried back 3 taxable years and forward 7 taxable years, after which unused credits expired. The 1981 Act extended the carry-forward period to 15 years. The 1981 act also provided "safe harbors" for tax leases of business machinery and equipment. Under these leases, depreciation and the investment tax credit are normally claimed by the lessor, although the lessee is the actual user and owner of the machinery or equipment. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allows financial institutions to issue special 1-year certificates until December 31, 1982, that pay tax-exempt interest. The interest rate on the certificates issued during any week is limited to 70% of the interest rate on the last 52-week Treasury bills issued in a preceding week. The total amount of interest that is exempt on these certificates for an individual is limited to $1,000 ($2,000 on a joint return). Financial institutions must invest at least 75% of the proceeds from these certificates in housing or agricultural loans. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allows public utilities between 1982 and 1985 to distribute stock in lieu of cash dividends to shareholders who may then deduct up to $750 per year ($1,500 on a joint return) of the stock dividends. Transportation.—Certain companies that operate U.S.-flag vessels receive an indefinite deferral of income taxes on that portion of their income which is used for shipping purposes, primarily construction, modernization and major repairs of ships. An investment credit of one-half the regular credit may be claimed on the tax-deferred amounts withdrawn from capital construction funds. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allows State and local governments to issue tax-exempt obligations to finance the purchase of mass commuting vehicles. Community and regional development—Under certain conditions, taxpayers may elect to amortize rehabilitation expenditures for low- and moderate-income rental housing over a 5-year period. Rehabilitation expenditures may not exceed $20,000 per dwelling unit and must exceed $3,000 to qualify. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 increased the limit to $40,000 per dwelling unit if the rehabilitation is on units which the tenants may purchase at a price that limits the profit to the seller. This provision expires on January 1, 1984. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 also provides an investment tax credit for the rehabilitation of buildings that are used for SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 23 business or productive activities (other than for residential purposes). The credit is 15% of rehabilitation expenditures for buildings at least 30 years old and 20% for buildings at least 40 years old. The basis of the rehabilitation recoverable as depreciation must be reduced by the amount of the credit. In addition, a 25% credit for rehabilitation of historic structures, including rental residential properties, was added by the 1981 act. Under prior law, a 10% credit was allowed for buildings at least 20 years old, with no reduction in basis. Education, training; employment, and social services.—Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance student loans is excluded from income subject to tax. Taxpayers may claim personal exemptions for dependent children 19 or over who receive income of $1,000 or more per year if the children are full-time students. The student may also claim an exemption on his own return, thus providing a double exemption. The extra exemption for parents results in a tax subsidy. Many employers provide employee benefits that are excluded from employee income. The employers' costs for these benefits are deductible business expenses. The exclusion from an employee's income of the value of meals and lodgings provided by an employer for his own convenience is a tax subsidy, as is the exclusion of housing allowances and the rental value of parsonages from the taxable income of ministers. An employer may set up an educational assistance program to provide educational benefits to his employees from January 1, 1979, through December 31, 1983. The program can pay for tuition, fees, books, and supplies. Amounts received under the program are excluded from an employee's gross income. Employer contributions to prepaid legal services plans and the value of legal services received under the plans are also excluded from employee income. For qualifying investment made prior to January 1, 1983, a corporation may claim an additional 1% investment tax credit if an equivalent amount of its common stock is set aside in a employee stock ownership plan (ESOP). A further one-half of 1% investment tax credit may be claimed to the extent that additional employer contributions to an ESOP are matched by employee contributions. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, the tax credit for contributions to an ESOP is limited to a prescribed percentage of total compensation paid to all employees under the plan. The percentage is one-half of 1% in 1983 and 1984, and three-quarters of 1% in 1985, 1986, and 1987. The ESOP credit expires in 1987. Employees are generally prohibited from withdrawing their share of an ESOP for 7 years. Contributions to charitable, religious and certain other nonprofit organizations are allowed as an itemized deduction for individuals, 24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 generally up to 50% of adjusted gross income. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 provides that nonitemizers may deduct a portion of charitable contributions, beginning in 1982. Taxpayers whose contributions to charitable or educational organizations are in the form of capital assets, usually securities that have appreciated in value above their cost, obtain a deduction for the contribution at the appreciated value of the asset without taxation on the appreciation in value. Corporations may deduct charitable contributions of up to 5% of their income. The deduction is increased to 10%, beginning in 1982, by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Tax subsidies resulting from the deductibility of contributions are shown separately here for contributions to educational and other institutions. Contributions to health institutions are reported under the health function. A 20% tax credit may be claimed by married couples for child and dependent care expenses incurred when both spouses work full time or when one spouse works part time or is a student. The credit may also be claimed by divorced or separated parents who have custody of children and by single parents. Expenditures up to a maximum of $2,000 for one dependent and $4,000 for two or more dependents are eligible for the 20% credit. The credit may be taken for payments to relatives of the taxpayer even if their services are not qualified for coverage under the social security laws. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, beginning in 1982, the credit is increased to 30% for taxpayers with incomes of $10,000 or less with the credit reduced by one percentage point for each $2,000 of income between $10,000 and $28,000, expenditures for out-of-home noninstitutional care of a disabled spouse or dependent are eligible for the credit, and the limits on eligible expenditures are raised to $2,400 for one dependent and $4,800 for two or more. Note that in the absence of the credit, expenses for child and dependent care would be deductible as employee business expenses. Therefore, the estimates reflect the excess of the value of the credit over the value of a deduction. The targeted jobs credit allows tax credits for qualified wages paid to individuals certified as members of a targeted group. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 eliminated the AFDC-WIN credit, but made individuals who qualified under that credit—those employed under the WIN (work incentive) program and other recipients of AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children)—eligible for the targeted jobs credit. A credit of 50% of first-year wages and 25% of second-year wages up to $6,000 of each employee's wages (the wage base for unemployment taxes) can be taken by the employer to offset up to 90% of his tax liability. The provision that the credit may not be taken for first-year wages in excess of 30% of the employer's total unemployment tax wage base was removed by SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 25 the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. The employer's deduction for wages is reduced by the amount of the credit. Health.—Payments by employers for health insurance premiums and other medical expenses are deducted as business expenses by employers and excluded from employee income. The exclusion from employee income gives rise to a tax subsidy. Medical expenses in excess of 3% of adjusted gross income, including payments for prescribed drugs and medicines in excess of 1% of adjusted gross income, may be deducted by individuals as itemized nonbusiness deductions. Individuals may also deduct half of the premiums they pay for medical care insurance up to a maximum deduction of $150 per year without regard to the 3% limit. Interest on State and local government debt issued to finance hospital construction is excluded from income subject to tax. Expenditures up to $25,000 per year for removing architectural and transportation barriers to the handicapped and the elderly in any facility or public transportation vehicle used in a trade or business that otherwise would have been treated as a capital outlay can be treated as a current expense prior to January 1, 1983. Contributions to nonprofit health institutions are allowed as a deduction for individuals and corporations. Contributions to other charitable institutions are discussed under the education, training, employment, and social services function. Income security.—Most Government transfer payments to individuals, such as social security benefits, are excluded from taxable income. If the taxpayer had no other source of income, these payments, even if taxable, would not generally be large enough to result in tax liability, given present levels of personal exemptions and the zero bracket amount. However, because some recipients have property income, receive earnings (in some instances for only part of a year), or file jointly with working spouses, tax subsidies result from these exclusions. If the sum of a taxpayer's adjusted gross income, unemployment compensation and excludable disability income is over $20,000 ($25,000 for a joint return), the lesser of his unemployment benefits or one-half of the amount over the $20,000 limit is taxable. Certain payments up to $100 per week financed by an employer in lieu of wages during periods of employee injury or sickness are excluded from the taxable income of persons under the age of 65, who are permanently and totally disabled. For these individuals the exclusion is reduced dollar for dollar by adjusted gross income plus disability income in excess of $15,000. Certain contributions to pension plans by employers and amounts set aside by the self-employed and those not covered by an employer's plan are excluded from the individual's adjusted gross 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 income in the year of contribution. Self-employed persons could make deductible contributions to their own retirement plans equal to 15% of their income up to a maximum of $7,500 per year. Employees not covered by an employer's plan could deduct annual contributions of 15% of compensation up to a maximum of $1,500 or $1,750 if the retirement account was owned jointly by a husband and wife. Under the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, beginning in 1982 the maximum deductible contribution for self-employed persons is $15,000. For employees, the requirement that they not be covered by an employer's plan was removed, and the maximum was raised to $2,000 (or 100% of compensation, if less) for each employee or $2,250 on a joint return if one spouse has no compensation. The investment income earned by pension funds is not taxable when earned. The exclusion from employee income of certain other employer payments, including payments for premiums of group life insurance and accident and disability insurance, are listed here because of their relationship to income security. The exclusion of certain other fringe benefits is listed under the education, training, employment, and social services function. Additional personal exemptions of $1,000 may be taken by taxpayers who are 65 years of age or older or blind. These additional exemptions may not be claimed for a taxpayer's dependents. The retirement credit for the elderly allows individuals who are 65 years of age or older to take a tax credit equal to 15% of earned and retirement income up to $2,500 for single individuals and married couples filing a joint return where only one spouse is 65 years of age or older, and up to $3,750 for joint returns where both spouses are 65 years of age of older. The $2,500/$3,750 base is reduced by one-half of the taxpayer's adjusted gross income over $7,500 for single individuals and $10,000 for married couples filing a joint return. Taxpayers generally may take as an itemized nonbusiness deduction each loss due to fire, theft or other casualty in excess of $100 to the extent not compensated by insurance or other payments. The earned income credit, which low-income workers with minor dependents may claim, is 10% of earned income up to $5,000 with a phase-out at the rate of 12.5% per dollar earned over $6,000. The maximum annual credit is $500. Earned income tax credits in excess of tax liabilities are paid to individuals. This portion of the credit is included in outlays while the amount that offsets tax liabilities is included as a tax subsidy. Rental housing assistance is provided through State and local housing authorities for eligible families. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1980 restricts the use of tax-exempt bonds for multifamily rental housing projects to those that include a substan- SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 27 tial number of units for low- and moderate-income individuals. The restrictions apply to such bonds issued after April 25, 1979 with exceptions allowed for bonds in process as of that date. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 allows an itemized deduction of up to $1,500 for expenses incurred in the adoption of children with special needs. The act also allows a 5-year write-off of the loss in value of motor carrier operating authorities due to deregulation of the industry. Veterans benefits and services.—All compensation due to death or disability and pensions paid by the Veterans Administration are excluded from taxable income. GI bill benefits are also excluded. General government.—A 50% credit may be claimed on political contributions up to $100 ($200 for joint returns). General purpose fiscal assistance.—Interest on State and local government debt is excluded from Federal taxation. Both corporations, mainly commercial banks, and individuals receive this tax exempt income. As a result, these governments can sell debt obligations at a lower interest cost than would be possible if such interest were subject to tax. The exclusion of interest on State and local government securities issued to finance pollution control facilities, other industrial development bonds, and housing bonds is classified elsewhere. Only the effect of excluding interest on general purpose obligations and revenue bonds for public purposes such as toll roads is included in this function. The deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes gives indirect assistance to these governments. The estimates shown here are primarily for the deductibility of State and local income and sales taxes. The deductibility of property taxes on owner-occupied homes is classified under commerce and housing credit. Under certain conditions, U.S. corporations receiving income from sources in a U.S. possession can claim a special tax credit equal to the U.S. tax, but only on income from such sources. Interest.—The interest on U.S. savings bonds is not taxable until the bonds are redeemed, thereby deferring tax liability. 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table G - l . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Description National defense: Exclusion of benefits and allowances to Armed Forces personnel Exclusion of military disability pensions Total (after interactions) International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by United States citizens Deferral of income of domestic international sales corporations (DISC) Total (after interactions) General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and development expenditures Credit for increasing research activities Total (after interactions) Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs: Oil and gas Other fuels Excess of percentage over cost depletion: Oil and gas Other fuels Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for certain energy facilities Residential energy credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative, conservation and new technology credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative fuel production credit Alcohol fuel credit 1 Energy credit for intercity buses Total (after interactions) Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals Exclusion of interest on State and local government pollution control bonds Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures Capital gains treatment of iron ore Capital gains treatment of certain timber income Investment credit and seven-year amortization for reforestation expenditures Total (after interactions) Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays Capital gains treatment of certain income Total (after interactions) Commerce and housing credit: Dividend and interest exclusion Exclusion of interest on State and local industrial development bonds Exemption of credit union income Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings Deductibility of interest on consumer credit Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes Fiscal years 1981 1982 2,365 160 2,525 2,335 165 2,500 1,045 2,790 3,835 1,850 2,750 4,600 760 205 1,060 730 650 1,515 4,725 40 5,195 45 3,110 540 195 2,855 550 160 230 560 295 540 235 285 60 5 5 8,475 315 370 120 25 5 8,830 75 555 85 595 745 70 40 1,050 875 80 35 1,065 10 2,510 20 2,705 530 710 1,315 550 635 1,250 3,350 1,310 -50 420 6,255 8,790 20,595 1,570 1,785 25 550 6,625 9,325 23,275 29 SPECIAL ANALYSIS G Table G - l . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Deductibility of property tax on owner-occupied homes Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for owner-occupied housing Expensing of construction period interest and taxes Capital gains (other than agriculture, timber, iron ore and coal) Deferral of capital gains on home sales Exclusion of capital gains on home sales for persons age 55 and over Carryover basis of capital gains at death Investment credit, other than ESOP's, rehabilitation of structures, energy property, and reforestation expenditures Safe harbor leasing rules Amortization of start-up costs Exclusion of interest on certain savings certificates Reinvestment of dividends in public utility stock Total (after interactions) Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies Exclusion of interest on State and local government bonds for mass transit Total (after interactions) Community and regional development: Five-year amortization for housing rehabilitation Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures Total (after interactions) Education, training, employment, and social services: Exclusion of interest on State and local student loan bonds Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) Employer educational assistance Exclusion of contributions to prepaid legal services plans Investment credit for ESOP's Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health Credit for child and dependent care expenses Credit for employment of AFDC recipients and public assistance recipients under work incentive programs General jobs credit Targeted jobs credit Total (after interactions) Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care Deductibility of medical expenses Exclusion of interest on State and local hospital bonds Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) Total (after interactions) Income security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Disability insurance benefits OASI benefits for retired workers Benefits for dependents and survivors Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits Exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners Exclusion of untaxed unemployment insurance benefits Fiscal years 1982 1981 9,270 9,945 730 775 33,240 1,550 600 3,355 1,020 710 25,060 1,640 635 3,220 24,640 1,510 70 117,470 24,250 3,065 135 1,660 400 114,355 65 70 65 70 35 240 275 45 390 435 70 1,025 695 45 30 1,730 910 8,550 1,390 115 1,020 730 55 30 1,910 900 8,295 1,755 115 200 250 15,370 30 30 385 15,620 19,215 3,670 590 1,395 25,110 20,615 3,950 715 1,355 26,895 9,105 1,785 370 2,755 95 2,010 920 10,130 1,935 375 3,165 90 2,565 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 30 Table G - l . OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX SUBSIDIES BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Exclusion of disability pay Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans Plans for self-employed and others Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance Premiums on accident and disability insurance Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits Additional exemption for the blind Additional exemption for elderly Tax credit for the elderly Deductibility of casualty losses Earned income credit 2 Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for rental housing.... Deduction for motor carrier operating rights Deduction for certain adoption expenses Total (after interactions) Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans disability compensation Exclusion of veterans pensions Exclusion of Gl bill benefits Total (after interactions) General government: Credits and deductions for political contributions General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on general purpose State and local debt Deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owneroccupied homes Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in United States possessions Total (after interactions) Interest: Deferral of interest on savings bonds Fiscal years 1981 1983 1982 210 190 170 34,230 3,660 36,695 5,030 37,885 5,820 2,485 140 15 30 2,250 130 1,100 690 455 95 15 64,070 2,545 140 20 30 2,355 135 1,125 525 500 115 15 70,295 2,475 130 20 30 2,370 135 1,165 500 565 115 15 72,850 1,290 95 205 1,605 1,405 85 180 1,685 1,405 90 150 1,660 85 80 80 6,100 6,925 7,740 19,345 20,470 21,680 2,110 27,755 2,260 29,860 2,425 32,060 480 620 710 *$5 million or less. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $5 million. 1 In addition, the exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts of $55 million in 1981, $55 million in 1982, and $55 million in 1983. 2 The figures in the table indicate the tax subsidies provided by the earned income tax credit. The effect on outlays is: 1981, $1,320 million; 1982, $1,255 million; 1983, $1,180 million. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 31 PROPOSED CHANGES IN T A X SUBSIDIES The administration has proposed a number of tax revisions that would remove or reduce the value of existing tax subsidies. The revisions include the repeal of business energy tax credits, restrictions on tax-exempt bonds for private activities, capitalization of construction period interest and taxes incurred by corporations, and a new corporate minimum tax. These revisions are described briefly below, including estimates of their impact on 1983 receipts. Repeal Business Energy Tax Credits.—Under current law, businesses are allowed investment tax credits for energy property in addition to the regular investment tax credit. Some energy tax credits expire at the end of 1982, but others extend through 1985 and beyond. Current law also provides an excise tax exemption, or an equivalent tax credit, for gasohol. With decontrol of oil and some natural gas prices, businesses no longer need additional investment incentives for energy conservation and development of alternative energy sources. Such subsidies interfere with business decisions by preempting free market resource allocations. Effective January 1, 1983, the administration proposes to repeal all business energy tax subsidies and to repeal special provisions allowing States and localities to issue tax-exempt industrial development bonds to finance low-head hydroelectric facilities and other energy property. Transition rules will mitigate the effect of repeal on taxpayers who have relied on existing law. The repeal of these provisions will increase 1983 receipts by $0.1 billion. Restrict Tax-Exempt Bonds for Private Activities.—Current law permits States and localities to issue tax-exempt revenue bonds for industrial development, housing, and other specific purposes. The volume of tax-exempt bonds issued for use by private business has grown rapidly over the past few years, raising the cost of financing traditional public projects such as schools and roads. There is no requirement under current law that industrial development bonds serve a genuine public purpose. In addition, tax-exempt financing combined with Accelerated Cost Recovery and the investment tax credit can result in unintended tax benefits. The administration proposes that assets financed with taxexempt bonds issued after 1982 must be depreciated using the straight-line method over an extended recovery period. Tax-exempt financing will be limited to bonds that are publicly approved by local governments and which, after 1985, receive a financial contribution or commitment from the local government. Small issue 32 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 industrial development bonds will not be allowed for large businesses. These restrictions on tax-exempt bonds for private activities will encourage anticipatory issues in 1982 and, therefore, reduce 1983 receipts by $0.2 billion. There will be an increase in receipts in 1984 and subsequent years. Capitalization of Construction Period Interest and Taxes.—Individual taxpayers must capitalize interest and taxes incurred during the construction of commercial buildings and deduct those costs over 10 years. The write-off period for rental housing is 8 years, but is scheduled to become 10 years by 1984. However, for corporations, the law permits an immediate write-off of these costs. The substantial acceleration of cost recovery provided by the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 makes it unnecessary to grant corporations an immediate deduction for a portion of construction costs. The administration proposes that construction period interest and taxes incurred by corporations to develop real property after December 31, 1982 be capitalized. Costs will be recovered over 10 years. Low-income housing will be exempted, as under present law. This proposal will increase 1983 receipts by $0.5 billion. Corporate Minimum Tax.—Corporations currently must pay a minimum tax, in addition to regular income tax, equal to 15% of certain tax preferences. This "add-on" minimum tax is not limited to those corporations that pay very little or no regular income tax. It may apply to any corporation that has reduced its tax liability through the use of designated tax preferences. The administration proposes to repeal the add-on minimum tax, effective January 1, 1983, and to replace it with an alternative minimum tax that would apply only to those corporations that pay very low regular rates of tax. Corporations will be required to pay the greater of their regular income tax or an alternative tax equal to 15% of their alternative tax base in excess of $50,000. This alternative tax base consists of regular taxable income plus certain tax preferences. The investment tax credit will not be allowed against the alternative tax. This new corporate minimum tax will increase 1983 receipts by $2.3 billion. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR " T A X EXPENDITURES" Table G-2, which follows, shows the estimated "revenue loss" associated with each tax subsidy item for which an "outlay equivalent" estimate was provided in table G-l. As explained in the text under the heading "Measuring Tax Subsidies," revenue loss estimates do not take into account the additional resources (if any) that would be required to provide the same after-tax incentive if SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 33 the expenditure program were administered as a direct outlay rather than through the tax system. As was also previously explained, these "revenue loss" estimates, for several reasons, are not equivalent to estimates of the increase in Federal receipts that would accompany the repeal of tax subsidy provisions. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 34 Table G-2. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Description National defense: Exclusion of benefits and allowances to Armed Forces personnel Exclusion of military disability pensions International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by United States citizens Deferral of income of domestic international sales corporations (DISC) General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and development expenditures Credit for increasing research activities Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs: Oil and gas Other fuels Excess of percentage over cost depletion: Oil and gas Other fuels Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for certain energy facilities Residential energy credits: Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative, conservation and new technology credits-. Supply incentives Conservation incentives Alternative fuel production credit Alcohol fuel credit 1 Energy credit for intercity buses Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals Exclusion of interest on State and local government pollution control bonds Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures Capital gains treatment of iron ore Capital gains treatment of certain timber income Investment credit and seven-year amortization for reforestation expenditures Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays Capital gains treatment of certain income Commerce and housing credit: Dividend and interest exclusion Exclusion of interest on State and local industrial development bonds Exemption of credit union income Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings Deductibility of interest on consumer credit Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes Deductibility of property tax on owner-occupied homes Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for owner-occupied housing Expensing of construction period interest and taxes Capital gains (other than agriculture, timber, iron ore and coal) Deferral of capital gains on home sales Fiscal years 1981 1982 1,735 155 1,885 165 610 1,595 985 1,465 1,550 15 380 405 3,525 25 4,065 25 1,865 380 100 1,965 380 105 5 150 425 205 415 180 220 25 5 5 235 285 55 45 385 50 405 715 60 585 835 80 20 600 5 10 525 425 545 460 1,335 1,200 -25 325 4,060 8,675 20,145 9,125 2,185 1,650 5 250 4,535 9,285 23,030 10,065 685 755 17,965 1,160 920 745 18,315 1,070 20 20 5 35 SPECIAL ANALYSIS G Table G-2. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Fiscal years Description Exclusion of capital gains on home sales for persons age 55 and over Carryover basis of capital gains at death Investment credit, other than ESOP's, rehabilitation of structures, energy property, and reforestation expenditures Safe harbor leasing rules Amortization of start-up costs Exclusion of interest on certain savings certificates Reinvestment of dividends in public utility stock Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies Exclusion of interest on State and local government industrial development bonds for mass transit Community and regional development: Five-year amortization for housing rehabilitation Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures Education, training, employment, and social services: Exclusion of interest on State and local student loan bonds Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) Employer educational assistance Exclusion of contributions to prepaid legal services plans Investment credit for ESOP's Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health Credit for child and dependent care expenses Credit for employment of AFDC recipients and public assistance recipients under work incentive programs General jobs credit Targeted jobs credit Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care Deductibility of medical expenses Exclusion of interest on State and local hospital bonds Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) Income security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Disability insurance benefits OASI benefits for retired workers Benefits for dependents and survivors Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits Exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners Exclusion of untaxed unemployment insurance benefits Exclusion of disability pay Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans Plans for self-employed and others Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance Premiums on accident and disability insurance Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits Additional exemption for the blind Additional exemption for elderly Tax credit for the elderly 1983 1982 1981 450 2,070 415 2,190 465 2,135 19,445 20,035 3,560 75 515 130 20,150 3,945 120 2,820 365 65 85 * 5 30 220 45 255 55 300 60 1,045 620 35 20 975 925 8,485 935 100 995 655 40 20 1,005 895 8,345 1,120 155 900 680 40 25 1,095 925 8,085 1,465 70 300 305 45 65 235 * 5 75 14,050 3,615 560 1,390 15,330 3,925 680 1,360 16,380 4,175 810 1,345 860 8,845 1,735 365 2,730 90 1,985 170 915 9,980 1,915 380 3,100 95 2,060 155 910 10,525 1,970 370 3,495 90 2,710 145 23,390 2,170 25,765 2,560 27,500 3,760 1,840 100 15 30 2,250 130 1,900 100 20 30 2,355 135 1,895 100 20 30 2,370 135 * 20 • 70 36 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table G-2. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES FOR "TAX EXPENDITURES" BY FUNCTION—Continued (In millions of dollars) Description Deductibility of casualty losses Earned income credit 2 Exclusion of interest on State and local housing bonds for rental housing.... Deduction for motor carrier operating rights Deduction for certain adoption expenses Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans disability compensation Exclusion of veterans pensions Exclusion of Gl bill benefits General government: Credits and deductions for political contributions General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on general purpose State and local debt Deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owneroccupied homes Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in United States possessions Interest: Deferral of interest on savings bonds Fiscal years 1981 1982 775 610 435 1983 10 800 555 485 140 10 850 495 535 75 10 1,255 95 200 1,360 85 175 1,380 90 145 100 80 80 5,855 6,685 7,505 19,085 20,395 21,530 1,120 1,200 1,285 -270 -80 50 * *$5 million or less. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $5 million. 1 In addition, the exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts of $55 million in 1981, $55 million in 1982, and $55 million in 1983. 2 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the earned income tax credit on receipts. The effect on outlays is: 1981, $1,320 million; 1982, $1,255 million; 1983, $1,180 million. 37 SPECIAL ANALYSIS G PROVISIONS PREVIOUSLY DESIGNATED " T A X EXPENDITURES" Table G-3, which follows, shows "revenue loss" estimates for current provisions of the Internal Revenue Code that were designated as involving "tax expenditures" in last year's budget, but which should be considered part of the reference tax structure rather than as special exceptions to it. Table G-3. REVENUE LOSS ESTIMATES OF PROVISIONS PREVIOUSLY DESIGNATED "TAX EXPENDITURES" (In millions of dollars) Description International affairs: Deferral of income of controlled foreign corporations Natural resources and environment: Exclusion of payments in aid of construction of water, sewage, gas and electric utilities Agriculture: Deductibility of noncash patronage dividends and certain other items of cooperatives Exclusion of certain cost-sharing payments Commerce and housing credit: Reduced rate? on the first $100,000 of corporate income Education, training, employment, and social services: Exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income Income security: Exclusion of public assistance benefits Fiscal years 1981 1983 1982 480 520 560 35 30 45 525 70 545 60 560 50 6,555 5,680 6,280 450 465 415 450 445 430 SPECIAL ANALYSISF243 FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1 State and local governments have a vital constitutional role in providing government services. The Federal Government contributes directly to that role by providing grants-in-aid and loans to States and localities, and contributes indirectly through policies designed to improve the economy. In the last two decades, the Federal Government role in domestic programs has become excessive. Grant-in-aid outlays grew by an extraordinary annual rate of 11.0% from 1961 to 1981, with many regulations and restrictions on what States and localities could and could not do. As a result, the Federal Government imposed its programs and priorities on States or localities. This growing Federal role has been reversed. Narrow categorical grants are being cut back sharply. At the same time, there are significant increases in broad-based Federal aid that allow States and localities to determine how funds should be spent. The administration proposes grant-in-aid outlays that are estimated to be $81.4 billion in 1983, $9.8 billion below the 1982 estimate of $91.2 billion, and $13.3 billion lower than the 1981 total of $94.8 billion. General purpose and broad-based aid is expected to grow from $16.9 billion in 1981 to $20.7 billion in 1983. All other grants decline from $77.9 billion in 1981 to $60.8 billion in 1983. Many substantial successes have already been achieved in reducing the intrusion of the Federal Government. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 established nine new block grants, consolidating 57 categorical grants. These consolidations were for: maternal and child health; preventive health and health services; alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health; primary health care; social services; low-income home energy assistance; community services; State education block grant; and State community development for small cities. This latter grant was a change to an existing block grant—the community development block grant program—and allowed States, on an optional basis, to administer a portion of this program. These block grants have been established with much simpler administrative requirements than the predecessor pro1 Federal aid to State and local governments is defined as the provision of resources by the Federal Government to support a State or local program of governmental service to the public. The three primary forms of aid are grants-in-aid (including shared revenues), loans, and tax expenditures. Unless specifically indicated to the contrary, reference to "Federal aid" or "grants" in this analysis is confined only to grants-in-aid (including shared revenues). 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 grams. For example, for grants that are now covered by the seven recently enacted block grants administered by the Department of Health and Human Services, regulations have been reduced from 318 to 6 pages in the Federal Register. Paperwork requirements associated with these programs are estimated to be reduced by an estimated 5.2 million hours in 1982, or by 86%. The major new proposals in this budget that further reduce the Federal role in domestic programs are for: • the federalism initiative, a major reshaping of the fiscal relationship between the Federal Government and State and local governments, that would begin in 1984 and dramatically reduce the Federal role in domestic programs; and • proposals for 1983 for seven new consolidated grants and additions to three existing block grants. THE FEDERALISM INITIATIVE The federalism initiative has two major components: • a Federal take-over of medicaid in return for State takeover of food stamps and aid to families with dependent children (AFDC)—a $20 billion exchange; and • a turnback of more than 40 Federal education, transportation, community development, and social service programs to States, financed by existing excise taxes on gasoline, tobacco, alcohol, and telephone services, and by the oil windfall profit tax. Swap component—In this component, the Federal Government would assume the full cost of medicaid, which is estimated to cost States and localities $19.1 billion in 1984. States and localities would no longer be responsible for these expenses. In return they would be responsible for the full costs of AFDC and food stamp programs, estimated to be $16.5 billion in 1984. This exchange would result in a clear distinction of governmental roles. The Federal Government would be responsible for health insurance and medical assistance—including both medicaid and medicare—and the States and localities would be responsible for cash assistance for the non-elderly needy, through State and local substitutes for existing food stamp and AFDC programs. Turnback component—In this component, a separate allocation would be established for each State beginning in 1984 and lasting through 1987, which would receive receipts from the Federal taxes on gasoline, tobacco, alcohol, telephone services, and the oil windfall tax. Outlays from the fund would depend on decisions made by the States. For specified programs, States could continue to receive grants controlled by the Federal Government or they could cancel participation in the Federal grant program, and receive in place of SPECIAL ANALYSIS G 5 the grants equal amounts of funds that could be used for any purpose. Beginning in 1988 the Federal Government would no longer fund these grants. Federal taxes to finance these programs would be reduced 25% each year and States would have the choice of taking over these taxes themselves to assist in financing the programs they choose to continue. The swap and turnback components of the federalism initiative would involve about $50 billion in 1984, more than 60% of estimated grant-in-aid outlays. Further details of this initiative will be worked out in close consultation with the Congress and State and local officials. Therefore, details are not yet available and the grants-in-aid data for 1984 in this Special Analysis do not take into consideration the financial transactions of the federalism initiative. The initiative is discussed further in Part 3 of the 1983 Budget of the United States Government. Federal lending to State and local governments and loan guarantees are another significant source of Federal aid. In 1983 the Federal Government is expected to disburse $2.9 billion for new loans to State and local governments. Loan outlays net of repay- 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 ments and sales are expected to be $0.8 million. New guaranteed loans to State and local governments are estimated to be $167 million in 1983. The accompanying chart shows trends in major grant categories since 1973. General purpose and broad-based aid are expected to grow substantially in the next few years. Payments for individuals, such as medicaid, are a large and growing part of grants-in-aid. Grants for highways continue to be significant. All other grants are expected to decline through 1985. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FEDERAL A I D PROGRAM Summary of changes.—When this administration took office a dramatic change in Federal policy was necessary to revitalize the economy and to devolve authority for certain government functions to State and local governments. This new policy has resulted in a reduction in grants and a shift away from categorical grants to block grants. The increased tax base available to State and local governments due to the recently enacted Federal tax cuts, and the existing and proposed block grants, allow the States the capacity to meet their greatest priorities and needs. Table H - l shows outlay changes from 1981 to 1982 and 1982 to 1983 divided into two categories: those grants that finance State or local payments for individuals, and all other grants. Grants that are subsequently paid as income support for individuals—such as medicaid, child nutrition, assistance payments, and housing programs—are estimated to increase, on a net basis, $1.6 billion from 1981 and 1982 and decrease $3.9 billion from 1982 to 1983. These grants, which will amount to an estimated $37.6 billion in 1983 outlays, take a substantial financial burden off State and local governments and provide large supplements to the economies of the area in which the beneficiaries live. All other grants are expected to decrease by $5.1 billion from 1981 to 1982 and decrease $5.9 billion from 1982 to 1983. Major proposals.—The major grant proposals in this budget are designed to consolidate categorical grants, give States and localities more discretion over the use of the funds, and decrease State and local dependence on Federal financing. Grant consolidation proposals are for: Vocational and adult education.—This proposal combines eight smaller grants into one consolidated grant. The eight smaller grants are: basic grants, program improvement and supportive services, programs of national significance, special programs for the disadvantaged, consumer and homemaker education, State advisory councils, State planning, and adult education grants to States. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 7 Table H - l . FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID CHANGES, 1981-83 (Outlays in billions of dollars) Outlays Total grants, 1981 actual Changes Payments for individuals: Medicaid Child nutrition programs Assistance payments (AFDC) Housing programs Other Subtotal payments for individualsOther programs: General revenue sharing Federal aid highways (trust fund) Training and employment Other Subtotal, other programs. Total grants, 1982 estimate Changes Payments for individuals: Medicaid 1 Nutrition assistance for Puerto Rico Assistance payments program ( A F D C ) 1 . . Other Subtotal, payments for individuals 1 Other programs: Sewage treatment plant construction Elementary, seconday and vocational education.. Training and employment Social services activities Other Subtotal, other programs Total grants, 1983 estimate.. 94.! 1.0 -0.7 -0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 -0.6 -0.8 -3.8 0.1 -5.1 91.2 -0.8 0.8 -2.6 -1.3 -3.9 -0.7 -1.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.2 -5.9 81.4 Decline is explained in part due to the proposed consolidation of State administration grants for medicaid, food stamps, and assistance payments and their reclassification in 1983 as "other programs," not "payments for individuals.' 1 Education for the handicapped.—This proposal will consolidate 13 different education programs for the handicapped. Budget authority of $836 million is proposed for 1983, roughly $50 million less than for the 13 programs in 1982. Employment and training.—Four separate programs authorized by the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act are proposed for consolidation to allow States more flexibility in responding to local needs. Proposed 1983 budget authority is $1.8 billion compared to $2.2 billion for the individual programs in 1982. Rehabilitation services.—This proposal would combine basic State grants together with several project grant authorities into one consolidated grant for rehabilitation services. Proposed budget authority for 1983 for the consolidated grant is $624 million, compared to $835 million for 1982 for the predecessor programs. Child welfare grant.—This proposal would combine the four current programs for foster care, child welfare services, adoption THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 8 assistance, and child welfare training into one grant. Budget authority proposed for 1983 is $380 million, $185 million less than in the four smaller programs in 1982. Rental rehabilitation grants.—This proposal would combine the rehabilitation loan fund and the Section 8 moderate rehabilitation program into one grant program to States and localities to assist them in rehabilitating multi-family, rental properties, principally for lower-income tenants. Budget authority of $150 million is proposed for 1983, compared to a level of $49 million in new 1982 budget authority for the programs that this grant would replace. It is estimated that this requested budget authority would assist in the rehabilitation of 30,000 housing units. Outlays are expected to begin in 1984. Combined welfare administration.—This consolidation would combine grants for State administration of medicaid, AFDC, and food stamps. Budget authority, in the Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services, of $2.2 billion is proposed for 1983, compared to $2.3 billion for 1982. This consolidated grant will encourage more efficient and effective administration of these programs until the transfer of these programs under the federalism initiative. In addition to these new grant consolidations, the administration proposes to expand three block grants enacted in 1981: Primary care.—The health grant for primary care would be expanded to cover the black lung clinics, migrant health, and family planning programs. Budget authority for the proposal would be $417 million for 1983, an increase of $166 million to cover the three smaller programs. This increase is the same amount of budget authority proposed for the three smaller programs for 1982. Services for women, infants, and children.—The maternal and child health services block grant enacted in 1981 would be expanded to include the nutrition program for women, infants, and children (WIC). Proposed 1983 budget authority for the block grant is $1.0 billion, an increase of $652 million from 1982. The requested 1983 budget authority is $0.3 billion less than the 1982 level for the separate programs. This reflects administrative economies and the strengthening of programs resulting from consolidation. Energy and emergency assistance.—This proposal would add the emergency assistance program to the existing low-income home energy assistance block grant, in order to increase flexibility available to States in aiding low-income persons who need special assistance for hardships, including aid to help pay fuel bills. Budget authority of $1.2 billion is proposed for 1983, compared to $1.6 billion for 1982. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 9 Other highlights.—Energy conservation grants for low income home weatherization and for energy saving investments in schools and hospitals and for other purposes are proposed to be phased out by 1984. Termination of these programs will be administered by the Department of Commerce beginning in 1983, as part of the administration's proposal to dismantle the Department of Energy. Realistic energy prices have eliminated the need for government spending on these conservation subsidies. Outlays for the Environmental Protection Agency's program for construction of sewage treatment plants are expected to be $3.4 billion in 1983, a decrease of $0.7 billion from 1982. The administration requests budget authority of $2.4 billion for the program in both 1982 and 1983. This program provides grants to both State and local governments for 75% of the cost of planning, designing, and constructing sewage treatment plants. Under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended, more than $33 billion has been provided to implement this program. With almost 12,000 projects currently underway, the administration is encouraging the States to assume responsibility for program management and implementation. This program is proposed for inclusion in the federalism initiative discussed earlier. Budget authority of $228 million in 1982 and $184 million in 1983 for grants to support State regulatory, enforcement, and administrative pollution control activities is requested. These grant programs include: air quality, water quality, public water supply, underground injection control, hazardous wastes, pesticides certification and training, and pesticides enforcement. Several other abatement, control, and compliance grants in EPA are proposed to be phased out. Grants through the land and water conservation fund, the urban parks program, the historic preservation fund and other programs assist States and localities in the management of natural resources. No new budget authority is requested for these programs in 1983, although grants awarded in prior years will have outlays in 1983 and 1984. Grants from the abandoned mine fund allow States to reclaim lands degraded by coal mining. Outlays are estimated to be $96 million in 1983, an increase of $20 million from $76 million in 1982. Grants for State fish and wildlife restoration and management projects, funded from federally collected excise taxes, are estimated to be $133 million in 1983. This is an increase of $5 million from the 1982 outlays of $128 million. Grants in the agriculture function are made through the Commodity Credit Corporation, the extension service, and cooperative State research service. Outlays for these programs are estimated to be $896 million in 1982, and $859 million in 1983. 1 0 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Outlays for highways are estimated to be $8.4 billion in 1983 and will focus on needs of the interstate and primary highway systems. States and localities will be expected to assume greater responsibility for roads used mostly for intrastate traffic. The Federal-aid highway programs, with the exception of the interstate system, have been identified for inclusion in the new federalism initiative and eventual turnback to the States. Grant outlays for urban mass transportation, are estimated to be $3.1 billion in 1983, $0.6 billion lower than the 1982 estimate. Formula grants for operating subsidies will be phased out by 1985. Construction grants will be directed primarily toward modernization and repair of existing, proven transit systems. Transit grant programs have been identified for inclusion in the new federalism initiative and eventual turnback to the States. Funding for the planning and construction of new rail transit systems will be postponed at least until the economy improves. The administration proposes to eliminate the economic development assistance administered by the Economic Development Administration in 1983. As these programs are phased out, funds for State and local community and economic development programs will continue to be available under the more flexible grant programs administered by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Specialized assistance for rural areas will continue to be available through the Farmers Home Administration. Community development block grant funds will continue to provide assistance directly to local governments through either entitlement or discretionary grants. Recipients have considerable freedom in selecting projects under this program, so long as they are within the general guidelines of community and economic development and mainly assist people with low and moderate incomes. Budget authority proposed for 1983—the same as approved for 1982—is $3,456 million. It is estimated that $2.5 billion of this amount would be used for large cities and urban counties and $0.9 billion would be used for nonentitlement small cities and rural communities. This $0.9 billion portion of the program that States may elect to administer is the recently enacted State community development block grant program for small cities. The urban development action grant program provides discretionary grants to severely distressed cities and urban counties to supplement local government and private sector financing for major economic development projects. They are designed to promote local economic revitalization, generate new jobs, and increase local tax bases. Budget authority proposed for 1983 for this program is $440 million, the same as in 1982. Federal support for the Title V regional commissions was discontinued at the end of 1981. Continuation of the commissions was unnecessary because nearly all of the commissions' projects dupli- SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 1 cated activities that would normally be undertaken by State agencies without Federal support. Grant outlays for elementary, secondary, and vocational education are estimated to be $5.1 billion in 1983, $1.6 billion less than in 1982. The largest of these grants go to State and local education agencies as grants for disadvantaged students. State education block grants enacted in 1981 combined 40 categorical programs, only 27 of which have been funded in recent years. This consolidation will give States considerably more flexibility in the use of these funds. Outlays for the block grant and related programs are estimated to be $527 million in 1983, $56 million less than in 1982. The budget also includes a substantial reduction in the impact aid program. This program is intended to compensate school districts for the burdens imposed by federally related activities. Much of the aid now goes to school districts where the Federal activity does not place a special burden on the local community. The budget request would limit impact aid to only those districts that serve pupils who live on and whose parents work on Federal property. Grant programs that provided for temporary federally subsidized jobs in State and local governments have been phased out. Legislation creating a new block grant to the States for training activities is proposed to replace four grants now authorized by CETA. This proposal will include provisions to encourage increased coordination between State education and training programs and would, by eliminating stipends, prevent overlap with income maintenance programs. Total outlays are expected to be $1.5 billion in 1983, $900 million of which is from the new block grant. During 1981 a new social services block grant was created, combining a number of social services and related activities. Outlays for this block grant are expected to be $2.0 billion in 1983, $0.9 billion less than 1982. A new community services block grant was also enacted in 1981. Outlays in 1983 will be $100 million, $248 million less than in 1982. The medicaid program continues to be a large grant-in-aid with estimated outlays of $17.0 billion in 1983. This program supports State efforts to provide health services to low-income residents. The administration is proposing reforms to medicaid that would save an estimated $1.9 billion in outlays in 1983. The largest of these reforms would reduce the Federal matching share for optional services and beneficiaries by 3%, and require beneficiary copayments. State administrative costs of $0.9 billion in 1982 are proposed to be transferred to a combined welfare administration consolidation grant, which is described above. The medicaid program is a major part of the federalism initiative described earlier. 1 2 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Four health block grants were enacted in 1981 to provide States more flexibility in the use of these funds. They were for maternal and child health; preventive health and health services; alcohol, drug abuse and mental health, and primary care. Outlays for these four programs are estimated to be $1.7 billion in 1983. Outlays for assistance payments (aid to families with dependent children) and child support enforcement are expected to be $8.1 billion in 1982, and $5.4 billion in 1983. Legislation is proposed for 1983 that would save an estimated $1.3 billion of Federal outlays and about an equal amount for States and localities. Some of the major items would require those who are able to work to do so as a condition of AFDC eligibility, and would include income and other resources that have not previously been counted in determining AFDC benefits. An additional $0.9 billion of the decline is explained by the transfer of State administrative costs from this program to a combined welfare administration grant consolidation, which is described above. The assistance payments program is a major part of the federalism initiative described earlier. Proposed budget authority for grants to State and local housing authorities declines sharply in 1982 and 1983, to $0.6 billion in 1982 and —$3.7 billion in 1983. These figures result from the administration's proposal to discontinue new construction of subsidized housing under the section 8 and public housing programs with the exception of housing for the elderly and handicapped. A modified version of the section 8 existing rental housing program—to be called the modified section 8 certificate program—is proposed for 1983. This program will place much greater reliance upon existing rental markets to meet the housing needs of low-income households. In addition, a portion of prior year commitments for unstarted new units is expected to be cancelled. Law enforcement assistance grants in the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention will be eliminated. These programs, if needed, could be financed directly by States and localities. Payments in lieu of taxes are made to some jurisdictions that contain Federal open space lands. Outlays for this program are estimated to be $96 million in 1982, and $45 million in 1983. Reforms are proposed to make the distribution of funds more equitable. Revenues are also shared with State and local governments from receipts received from timber and mineral sales on Federal lands. These payments are estimated to increase from $594 million in 1982 to $756 million in 1983. One of the largest grants is general revenue sharing, which provides grants to local governments with virtually no restrictions on the use of funds. Outlays are estimated to be $4.6 billion in 1983. This program is part of the federalism initiative described earlier. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 3 Additional information on many of these grant programs is in Part 5 of the Budget Loans.—Another form of Federal aid to State and local governments is assistance in obtaining credit, either directly or through loan guarantees. Direct loan disbursements (excluding repayments) are estimated to be $2.9 billion in 1983, and $167 million of new guaranteed loans are estimated in 1983. One of the large guarantee loan programs was enacted by Congress in 1978 to assist New York City. The legislation allows for the guarantee of principal and interest for $1,650 million. The remaining guarantee authority is $300 million. The authority to make new guaranteed loans ends June 30, 1982. (More information on Federal credit activities is available in Special Analysis F.) Tax Expenditures.—Federal aid is also provided through tax expenditures. (More information on tax expenditures is provided in Special Analysis G and, on the assistance from tax-exempt financing, in Special Analysis F.) The method of measuring tax expenditures has been modified in this year's budget to make them more comparable with direct budget outlays. In previous budgets tax expenditures were estimates of revenue losses. In this year's budget, tax expenditures are measured as the amount of outlays that would be required to provide an equal after-tax income to taxpayers. The two major tax expenditures are the deductibility of many State and local taxes and the exclusion of interest on State and local securities from Federal taxation. Individuals can claim nonbusiness sales, income, and property tax payments to State and local governments (other than payments already taken as business deductions) as itemized deductions on their Federal tax returns. This permits States and localities to raise a dollar of revenue with less than a dollar of net cost to their citizens. The 1983 outlay equivalent tax expenditure for property taxes on owner-occupied homes is estimated to be $10.5 billion and the outlay equivalent tax expenditure for other nonbusiness State and local taxes—primarily income and sales taxes—is estimated to be $21.9 billion. Interest on virtually all State and local government securities is tax exempt. This permits State and local jurisdictions to borrow at reduced interest rates. The outlay equivalent tax expenditure for the exclusion of interest on State and local general purpose debt is estimated to be $7.7 billion in 1983. Interest on State and local industrial revenue bonds is also tax exempt. These bonds finance industrial and transportation projects, pollution control facilities and public and, more recently, selected 360-700 0 - 2 - (H) THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 1 4 private housing. Tax expenditures in 1983 equivalent to outlays are estimated to be $2.3 billion for industrial facilities, $1.0 billion for pollution control facilities, and $565 million for State and local rental housing bonds. State and local governments have been using the proceeds of taxexempt borrowing to provide mortgage funds for private housing. The tax exemption of interest on State and local securities makes it possible to provide such funds at interest rates well below the rates for private mortgages. At first, tax-exempt housing bonds were used mainly to assist low-income, multifamily housing; recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the use of such bonds for owner-occupied housing, including housing purchased by middle and upper income families. The 1983 outlay equivalent tax expenditure is estimated to be $1.3 billion. Expensive, direct Federal involvement to encourage the redevelopment of distressed urban areas has not solved the most pressing problems of the Nation's cities. The administration, therefore, is proposing the establishment of enterprise zones as an experimental, free-market approach to these problems. By reducing tax and regulatory burdens in clearly delineated geographic areas, the enterprise zone proposal would place greater reliance on the ability of the private sector to create new jobs and new investment in distressed urban areas. FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID BY FUNCTION, A G E N C Y , A N D REGION Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, the Congress reviews the budget and sets targets by function. Consequently, the functional classification of the budget has become important not only for analysis but also for congressional control. Part 5 of the budget discusses the entire Federal budget by function, and the associated national needs met by these programs. In recent years the budget has included data for two years beyond the budget year to provide an improved means of planning for the longer term. Consequently, the discussions and data in many parts of this budget include the 1983-85 planning period. Consistent with that approach, this Special Analysis shows estimates through 1985 in many of the tables and the chart on a previous page. Because many of the programs discussed are involved in the federalism initiative, the actual amounts in 1984 and 1985 will depend upon their relation to the initiative or on State's decisions about continuing the programs. Table H-2 shows a functional distribution of Federal grant-in-aid outlays. Major trends in 1983 are discussed above. The functional composition of the grant programs has changed significantly over the years, as shown in table H-3. The most SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 5 Table H - 2 . FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION (In millions of dollars) Estimate Actual 1981 Function 75 617 4,944 829 4 13,462 6,124 21,146 18,895 21,341 74 333 208 6,710 National defense Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Commerce and housing credit Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services.. Health Income security Veterans benefits and services Administration of justice General government General purpose fiscal assistance 1985 1982 1983 1984 82 679 5,110 896 5 12,534 5,933 17,310 20,122 21,718 66 257 190 6,319 106 409 4,166 859 2' 11,889 5,010 12,281 19,469 20,331 65 118 163 6,549 72 100 3,554 860 2 11,654 4,441 11,853 20,799 21,411 70 55 182 6,798 1 1 72 3,389 876 2 11,899 4,551 10,737 22,544 22,076 72 33 160 7,104 94,762 91,220 81,418 81,853 83,517 Total outlays. Data for 1984 and 1985 are included here to be consistent with the multi-year planning system. They have not received as much review as the estimates for 1982 and 1983. 1 dramatic growth has occurred in the health function, which has increased from 3% of Federal aid in 1960 to an estimated 24% in 1983 and in the education, training, employment and social services function, which increased from 7% in 1960 to 27% in 1970 and has now decreased to an estimated 15% in 1983. Other changes are the addition of general revenue sharing, increases in outlays for environmental protection, and the relative decline in grants for highways and income security. The latter is primarily due to the assumption by the Federal Government of the food stamp program and the public assistance programs for the aged, blind, and disabled. Table H - 3 . PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION Actual Energy Natural resources and environment Agriculture Transportation Community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services.... Health Income security General purpose fiscal assistance Other Total Estimate 1970 * * 1 5 1 14 6 22 20 23 7 1 1 6 1 14 7 19 22 24 7 1 1 5 1 15 6 15 24 25 8 1 * 2 3 19 7 27 16 24 2 1 1 6 1 14 7 24 17 20 9 1 * 2 3 43 2 7 3 39 2 4 1 14 5 14 25 26 8 4 1 14 5 13 27 26 9 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 * 100 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1960 1 * 1985 1 * * 0 . 5 % or less. 1 Data for 1984 and 1985 are included here to be consistent with the new multi-year planning system. They have not received as much review as the estimates for 1982 and 1983. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 1 6 Table H - 4 . FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS BY AGENCY (In millions of dollars) Agency Funds appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency Community Services Administration Foundation for Education Assistance Other Total outlays Actual 1981 Estimate 1982 597 6,700 1,180 35,536 8,664 1,477 317 8,972 13,401 6,118 4,181 622 6,047 951 562 6,449 1,027 36,719 9,459 1,663 233 5,492 12,458 5,465 4,291 183 6,195 1,024 94,762 91,220 Table H-4 shows grant outlays by agency. The Department of Health and Human Services will provide 41% of total estimated grant-in-aid outlays in 1983, far more than any other agency. Distribution of grants by region.—Table H-5 shows that Federal aid on a per capita basis varies widely among regions. The thinly populated Western States traditionally rank high because of highway construction grants and shared revenues from Federal land holdings. For example, the Rocky Mountain States have the lowest regional population density, extensive Federal land holdings and, until recently, the highest per capita aid. This effect has diminished in recent years, however, as human resource programs have grown relative to physical resource programs. Further, the addition of general revenue sharing has tended to equalize per capita figures among the regions. Region VIII, which had per capita grants 27% above the national average in 1971, now has grants only 5% over the average, while Region V has risen from 26% below the average to only 2% below. Grants per capita to Region V have grown the most during the period, averaging 13.8% per year. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES In recent decades, Federal aid to States and local governments has become a major factor in the financing of certain government functions. The rudiments of the present system date back to the Civil War. The Morrill Act, passed in 1862, established the land grant colleges and instituted certain federally required standards, characteristic of the present grant-in-aid system. Federal aid was later initiated for agriculture, highways, vocational education and reha- SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 7 Table H - 5 . DISTRIBUTION OF GRANTS BY REGION, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS Dollars per capita 19811 total grants Federal Region 1. Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island II. New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands III. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, District of Columbia IV. Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida V. Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota VI. Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas VII. Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska VIII. Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming IX. Arizona, California, Nevada, Hawaii, other territories X. Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Alaska United States 1971 1981 Average annual percent increase, 1971-81 5.7 14.7 144 160 455 521 11.9 12.2 11.3 148 456 11.6 13.9 18.2 8.5 3.9 3.1 11.9 3.7 94.8 145 106 148 118 182 170 174 143 350 398 330 331 429 413 454 408 9.0 13.8 8.1 10.6 8.7 9.0 9.8 10.8 1 Preliminary estimate, in billions of dollars. See "Federal Aid to States," Department of the Treasury, for additional information concerning State distribution of Federal grants. bilitation, forestry, and public health. In the depression years, Federal aid was extended to meet income security and other social welfare needs. However, Federal grants did not become a significant factor in Table H - 6 . HISTORICAL TREND OF FEDERAL GRANT-IN-AID OUTLAYS (Fiscal years; dollar amounts in millions) Composition of grantsin-aid Total grants-inaid Five-year intervals: 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Annually: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 4 1985 estimate 4 Federal grants as a percent of Budget outlays Grants for payments to individuals 1 Other Total Domestic2 State and local expenditures 3 $2,253 3,207 7,020 10,904 24,014 49,834 $1,257 1,623 2,479 3,931 9,023 17,441 $996 1,584 4,541 6,972 14,991 32,392 5.3% 4.7 7.6 9.2 12.3 15.4 8.8% 12.1 15.9 16.5 21.3 21.5 10.4% 10.1 14.7 15.3 19.2 23.0 59,093 68,414 77,889 82,858 91,472 94,762 91,220 81,418 81,853 83,517 21,023 23,860 25,981 28,765 34,174 39,934 41,500 37,563 39,951 42,310 38,070 44,555 51,908 54,093 57,298 54,828 49,720 43,855 41.902 40,207 16.2 17.1 17.4 16.9 15.9 14.4 12.6 10.7 10.2 9.6 21.9 22.9 23.1 22.5 21.2 19.5 17.3 15.5 15.1 14.8 24.2 25.9 26.8 26.1 26.3 25.3 NA NA NA NA For an identification of accounts in this category, see Table H—11 and footnotes. Excludes outlays for the national defense ana international affairs functions. As defined in the national income and product accounts. 4 Data for 1984 and 1985 are included to be consistent with the multi-year planning system. They have not received as much review as the estimates for 1982 and 1983. N A = N o t available. 1 2 3 1 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Government expenditures until after World War II. In 1950, Federal grants to State and local governments were $2 billion, and by 1965 they had risen to $11 billion. In 1978, partially because of the economic stimulus grants, they were $77.9 billion, an average annual increase of 16% since 1965. In 1983 Federal grants are expected to be 10.7% of total Federal outlays and 15.5% of domestic Federal outlays. Table H-6 shows historical data for grant outlays since 1950. Almost half of estimated 1983 grants are to States and localities as payments for individuals.2 Most such grants are accompanied by State or local matching payments. Among the larger of these programs are medicaid, assistance payments, housing assistance, and nutrition programs for children. Supplemental security income became a direct Federal program in January 1974, as did the food stamps program in 1971. Almost all of the outlays for these programs were included as grants through the year prior to their assumption by the Federal Government, but not since then. Table H-6 also shows grants-in-aid as a percent of State and 2 Payments for individuals are defined as Federal budget outlays providing benefits in cash or in-kind that constitute income transfers to individuals or families. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H Fiscal 1 9 Years local expenditures. This percent increased from 15.3% in 1965 to 26.8% in 1978, and declined to 25.3% in 1981. The charts show the growth of total governmental expenditures since 1950, and these expenditures as a percent of gross national product. Federal expenditures including grants have increased as a percent of GNP from 16% in 1950 to 24% in 1981, while State and local expenditures including grants have increased from 8% in 1950 to 12% in 1981. GRANTS ADMINISTRATION The increase in grant expenditures since World War II was accompanied by an increase in the number of grants designated for specific purposes. This increase took place especially in the 1960's and 1970's. These grants usually contained Federal legislative and regulatory mandates, required matching funds from the recipient governments, and gave little discretion in their use to State and local officials. They came to be known as categorical grants, with complex administrative requirements to ensure that their purposes were met. To combat this trend and to devolve authority, general-purpose and broad-based grants have been emphasized in recent years. Table H-7 shows the estimated effect of grants enacted in 1981 and proposed for consolidation in 1983. Outlays for these grants are 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Table H-7. BROAD-BASED AID ENACTED IN 1981 OR PROPOSED FOR 1983 (Outlays in millions of dollars) Estimates 1982 Enacted in 1981: State community development block grant for small cities 1 State education block grant Community services Social services Preventive health and health services Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health Subtotal Block grants enacted in 1981 and proposed for change in 1983: Services for women, infants, and children 2 Primary health care Energy and emergency assistance 3 Subtotal 2 3 1985 (200) 578 100 1,974 80 409 (500) 441 100 1,974 81 432 (650) 335 100 1,974 81 432 3,862 3,141 3,028 2,922 313 1,574 900 313 1,168 1,000 417 1,168 1,000 417 1,168 1,887 2,381 2,585 2,585 162 37 900 516 380 2,181 392 643 2,250 603 380 75 2,181 441 836 1,800 633 380 150 2,181 4,176 6,524 6,421 9,698 12,137 11,928 Subtotal Total 1984 (10) 666 348 2,400 72 376 Proposed consolidations: Vocational and adult education Education for the handicapped Training and employment Rehabilitation services Child welfare grant Rental rehabilitation grants Combined welfare administration 1 1983 5,749 Outlays are based on estimated State participation and are included in community development block grants shown in table H - 8 . Formerly maternal and child health block grant. Formerly low-income energy assistance program. estimated to be $9.7 billion in 1983. Table H-8 shows the much greater importance of general-purpose and broad-based grants since 1972. General-purpose grants give State and local governments almost complete discretion in determining their use; broad-based grants give State and local governments considerable discretion within a broadly defined program area, such as health or community development. In 1972 there were virtually no general-purpose or block grants. For 1983, these grants are estimated to be one-fourth of total grants-in-aid. Their share of the total declined somewhat after the economic stimulus program reached its peak in 1978. Despite the elimination of States from general revenue sharing, this percentage remains about one-fourth through 1985. Most general-purpose and broad-based grants reduce or eliminate the requirement that recipients match Federal funds with their own. Despite the increase in these grants, matching requirements for all grants as a whole have not changed significantly. In 1981, State and local governments were estimated to provide approximately $1 of matching funds for $2.39 of Federal aid; this ratio SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 1 Table H-8. OUTLAYS FOR GENERAL-PURPOSE, BROAD-BASED, AND OTHER GRANTS (Dollar amounts in millions) Estimate Actual Subtotal, generalpurpose grants Broad-based: Enacted before 1981: Community development block grants Comprehensive health grants Employment and training 2 Social services Criminal justice assistance.... School aid in federally affected areas Local public works Enacted in 1981 or proposed for 1983 3 Subtotal, broad-based grants Other grants Total ADDENDUM: PERCENT OF TOTAL General-purpose grants Broad-based grants Other grants Total 1985 1980 1981 1982 $6,243 $6,829 $5,137 $4,570 $4,567 $4,567 $4,567 $516 907 1,765 1,711 1,913 2,162 2,232 2,537 516 7,150 8,594 6,848 6,483 6,729 6,798 7,104 983 3,902 4,042 4,005 3,350 3,200 3,456 83 2,144 2,763 372 23 2,231 2,646 316 11 1,695 6 396 4 2 1,930 233 128 1,698 2,251 674 233 95 32 9 602 558 622 416 693 83 576 60 354 30 302 30 286 5 5,749 9,698 12,137 11,928 1972 General-purpose grants: General revenue sharing Other general purpose fiscal assistance and T V A 1 1984 1976 1983 90 2,855 31,001 6,292 45,651 10,302 72,576 10,034 77,880 12,329 72,408 13,929 60,760 15,705 59,350 15,686 60,727 34,372 59,093 91,472 94,762 91,220 81,418 81,853 83,517 1.5% 8.3% 90.2% 12.1% 10.6% 77.3% 9.4% 11.3% 79.3% 7.2% 10.6% 82.2% 7.1% 13.5% 79.4% 8.3% 17.1% 74.6% 8.3% 19.2% 72.5% 8.5% 18.8% 72.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% For detail, see grants in the general purpose fiscal assistance function, Table, H—11. Amounts in Table H - 8 above include shared revenues from the Tennessee Valley Authority, shown in the energy function. 2 Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA), Title II A, B, and C. An additional $1.6 billion of CETA grant-in-aid outlays are estimated for 1982, but they are limited to particular types of clientele (e.g. youth) and therefore are included in other grants, not broad-based grants. 3 For detail, see table H-7. 1 declines slightly in 1983. The decrease in matching requirements for general-purpose and broad-based aid has been partially offset by the significant growth in programs such as medicaid that require a larger than average matching share. The chart shows that of all the grants to State and local governments in 1982 almost 90% is concentrated in only 20 programs. Nevertheless, there are hundreds of categorical grants with different matching requirements, timing difficulties, application procedures, duplication of programs, and other administrative problems. The chart also shows that there were 362 grants in 1980 and 221 in 1982, a reduction of 141, or about 40%. Most of the decline is the direct result of the 9 new block grants enacted in 1981 and the 2 2 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 elimination of many small programs. In view of the rapid growth of the number of grant programs since the mid-1960's, this decline is a major improvement. This simplification of Federal aid is expected to save a significant number of hours for State and local governments. In addition to the reduction in the number of programs, one aspect of the administration's efforts at regulatory reform has been a demonstration project aimed at identifying, evaluating, and simplifying or eliminating the mandatory administrative or procedural requirements associated with Federal assistance. The project is oriented toward program specific mandates that contribute to the overhead cost of conducting and administering assistance programs. Mandates are those individual requirements contained in an agency regulation or instruction. An average of 500 mandates have been identified for each program. This intensive review was applied on a test basis by four agencies (the Departments of Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Education, and the Environmental Protection Agency) for six major programs. Results to date are significant: —The Environmental Protection Agency has reviewed all the mandates required by the construction grant program. As a result, it has published a proposed rule in the Federal Register to SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 3 eliminate 75% of the individually listed mandates. A review is underway of those remaining agency-wide mandates governing such activities as those to citizen participation, and the National Environmental Policy Act. Further major reductions are anticipated. —The Department of Transportation, in both proposed and final rules recently published by the Federal Highway Administration, has achieved appreciable reductions in mandates in eight highway program regulations, and in two guidance documents prescribing requirements for the Urban Mass Transit Administration's mass transit capital grant program. For example, the Federal Highway Administration published in December 1981, a proposed rule revising noise abatement procedures for highway traffic and construction. It eliminates 65% of the mandates in the existing regulation. —Proposed rules governing Federal assistance for educating handicapped children of preschool and school age, to be published soon in the Federal Register by the Department of Education, will eliminate or amend 85% of the administrative and procedural requirements on which the mandate review demonstrations project focused. The proposed rule will also significantly alleviate programmatic requirements related to how the assistance is to be provided. A mandate review of the vocational rehabilitation program will be completed by the Department of Education in March 1982; initial indications are that administrative and procedural burdens will be eased significantly. —The Department of Housing and Urban Development community development block grant entitlement program will soon publish for public comment in the Federal Register a proposed rule reflecting a reduction of over 50% of the volume of the current regulations. The four agencies will complete the mandate reviews in these programs within the next year. Additional mandate reviews will be conducted in 1982, particularly where major simplification and elimination seems to be warranted, and where reductions in the mandate burden will benefit State and local governments. Additional efforts undertaken recently or in the last few years to review and improve the system of intergovernmental aid include: —Executive Order 12291, establishing for the first time a centralized mechanism for executive management of agency regulatory activities. For example, Federal agencies are required to submit a cost-benefit analysis for any regulation having an impact of more than $100 million. —Establishment of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Federalism, which includes Cabinet members, state legislators, 2 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 governors, mayors, county officials, members of Congress, and private citizens. The Committee is advising the President with respect to the objectives and conduct of the overall federalism policy of the United States. —Regional briefings sponsored by the White House, OMB, and those Federal agencies with responsibility for administering the block grants. —Restructuring of 10 Federal Regional Councils to assist in implementing the new block grants, and to improve management and coordination of Federal programs. —Active Executive Branch participation in the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (ACIR). —Improvements in the Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, the reference document used by communities and individuals applying for Federal assistance. —Improvements in the Federal Assistance Programs Retrieval System (FAPRS). FAPRS uses computer terminals to permit matching the needs of a community with the requirements of Federal programs, and automatically identifies those programs from the Catalog for which a community might apply. Changes include more functional categories for program selection, and more information advisory bulletins for users. —Revised procurement standards. OMB Circular A-102, "Uniform administrative requirements for grants to State and local governments," now includes streamlined procurement standards that place greater reliance on State and local purchasing systems. The new standards permit governments with good systems to have them certified in advance, keeping Federal involvement in procurement under grants to a minimum. —Establishment of the Federal Assistance Award Data System (FAADS), to provide better information about current grant funding to States. Data on all direct assistance awards are being provided quarterly to the States and to the Congress. In addition, a number of steps have been taken this year to improve the financial management of Federal aid: —Deregulation. Block grant programs were stripped of all but essential requirements of law, and categorical programs had regulations cut back significantly. —Single audit. A single audit system was implemented for aid to State and local governments that relies on their network of audit and investigative resources. —Cash management. The flow of assistance funds was streamlined by expanded use of electronic funds transfer and delayed drawdown procedures. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 5 —Internal control. New administration guidelines require agencies to tighten up control systems associated with assistance programs. —Inspectors General. A reinvigorated Inspector General program in the grant-making agencies has come down hard on fraud, abuse, and waste in assisted programs. —Audit followup. The President has directed that new procedures be put in place to assure that audit findings are resolved within 6 months. OTHER SOURCES OF FEDERAL A I D INFORMATION The grant-in-aid series in the budget provides a comprehensive picture of Federal grants-in-aid, which are programs financed but not directly administered by the Federal Government. The Census series (published in Governmental Finances) and the national income and product accounts (NIA) series (published in Special Analysis B and in the Survey of Current Business) are parts of a broader statistical concept encompassing the entire economy, and as a consequence grants-in-aid are defined somewhat differently than in the budget. They both omit the following items that the budget includes: —Federal aid to the Governments of Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; —payments in-kind, primarily commodities purchased by the Department of Agriculture and donated to the school lunch and other nutrition programs; and —payments to private, nonprofit entities (such as nonprofit hospitals) that operate under State auspices or within a State plan. One major group of payments excluded in the budget definition of grants but included in the Census and NIA series is payments for research conducted by public universities. The budget series excludes these payments because they are considered to be a purchase of services for the Federal Government rather than aid for State or local programs. Since both Census and the NIA series focus on total cash payments to State and local governments, they count these as grants. A major item included only in the Census definition is unemployment compensation for Federal employees, ex-servicemen, and temporary extended benefits. These items were either new or became large in 1976, when they were first included in the Census data. One major kind of outlay included in the budget and Census definitions but excluded from the NIA series is grants to subsidize the operation of public enterprises, mainly housing and transportation facilities. These are counted as subsidies by the Federal Government in the NIA rather than as grants. Table H-9 shows these and other minor differences among the THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 2 6 three series, but the differences are largely offsetting and, thus, these three series exhibit similar patterns. Table H-9. THREE MEASURES OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, 1975-80 (In billions of dollars) 1975 Budget (Special Analysis H) Less principal exclusions: Agricultural commodities Geographical exclusions Plus payments for research Federal unemployment benefits and related All other (net) Federal payments (Census) Less.Low-rent public housing Federal unemployment benefits and related All other (net) Grants-in-aid (national income and product accounts) 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 49.7 59.0 68.4 77.9 82.9 91.5 -0.5 -0.9 1.5 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 1.8 10.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 1.8 5.2 -0.6 -0.6 -1.6 2.2 1.2 0.1 -0.7 -1.8 2.4 0.8 1.6 -1.1 -2.0 2.9 1.3 -1.8 49.6 69.1 73.0 79.2 85.2 90.8 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8 -2.3 -2.8 -3.3 -10.6 0.6 -5.2 0.2 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -2.5 -1.3 0.5 57.5 66.3 74.7 79.1 86.7 48.4 In addition to these data sources, Federal Aid to States, published by the Department of the Treasury, lists grant outlays for the most recently completed year by State for more than 100 programs, using the budget definition of grants. The Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, prepared by the Office of Management and Budget and available from the Government Printing Office, contains a detailed listing of grant-in-aid and other assistance programs; discussions of eligibility criteria, application procedures, and estimated obligations; and related information. This is a primary reference source for communities wishing to apply for grants-in-aid. The Federal Register is published daily by the Government Printing Office and has current information on agencies that are accepting applications for specific programs. This source also provides information on eligibility criteria and application procedures. THE STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SECTOR OF THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS 3 The national income and product accounts (NIA) provide a comprehensive statistical description of the U.S. economy that includes State and local government receipts and expenditures. These data measure the relationship between the State and local governments as a sector of the economy and other sectors. The State and local 3 Special Analysis B provides general information on the Federal sector of the national income and product accounts. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 7 data are presented here to provide a context in which to compare the grants-in-aid. There are three major differences between NIA data and a government's own budgetary accounting for receipts and expenditures. First, financial transactions and the purchase and sale of land and other existing assets are excluded from NIA data but are generally included in budgetary data. Second, a large number of transactions in the NIA accounts are recorded on an accrual basis, while many governments show transactions on a cash basis. Third, NIA data aggregate total State and local transactions, whereas many governments separate their general fund from special funds. As a result of these differences, NIA totals are not the same as an aggregate of these governments' financial budgets. However, the NIA data do provide timely estimates of total State and local fiscal transactions not otherwise available and, with care, can be used as financial indicators. Table H-10. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS, STATE AND LOCAL SECTOR (Calendar years; in billions of dollars) Surplus or deficit ( - ) Receipts Five-year intervals: 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 Annually: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1 Expenditures Social insurance funds Total sector Operating account 1.9 5.5 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.4 6.9 13.1 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 -3.4 -5.1 -7.6 16.6 28.1 29.0 26.7 29.1 36.5 15.6 17.9 20.0 23.9 26.9 32.1 0.9 10.1 9.0 2.9 2.1 4.4 21.3 31.7 49.9 75.1 135.4 237.7 22.5 32.9 49.8 75.1 133.5 232.2 -1.2 -1.3 0.1 267.8 298.0 327.4 351.2 384.0 416.8 251.2 270.0 298.4 324.4 355.0 380.3 * SEASONALLY ADJUSTED, ANNUAL RATES 1980: 1 II Ill IV 1981: 1 II Ill 372.1 373.9 386.8 403.4 345.4 350.0 358.2 366.3 26.6 23.9 28.6 37.1 25.3 25.7 27.7 29.0 1.3 -1.7 0.9 8.1 411.7 413.6 419.4 374.8 377.5 382.1 36.9 36.1 37.2 30.4 31.7 32.7 6.6 4.3 4.6 * $50 million or less. 1 Preliminary. NIA State and local sector.—Table H-10 is a historical tabulation of State and local data with the surplus or deficit divided between 2 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 two components, social insurance funds and the operating account.4 The social insurance funds, primarily retirement programs, have been in surplus since before 1950. The funds accumulate assets to pay for their future liabilities. Because these social insurance fund surpluses are not generally available to pay for deficits in operating accounts, the operating account is generally thought to be a better measure of State and local fiscal condition than the surplus or deficit for the sector as a whole. It is reasonable for the operating account to be in deficit since it includes capital expenditures, often financed through borrowing, and the account was in deficit in the 1950's and 1960's. In the 1970's however, the account was in surplus several years. Surpluses in 1972 and 1973 resulted from the first general revenue sharing distributions and higher tax receipts generated by tax rate increases and the rapidly expanding economy. In 1974, the operating account returned to a deficit. In part, this reflected a return to previous patterns, as State and local expenditure increases absorbed the increased revenues. It also reflected the recession, with State and local governments choosing to draw down balances accumulated during 1972-73 rather than enact new tax increases. Their fiscal position improved substantially in 1976 compared with 1975, and surpluses have continued into 1979. The operating account had a surplus of $2.9 billion in 1979, and $2.1 billion in 1980. The surplus is expected to increase in 1981. DETAILED FEDERAL A I D TABLES The following two tables present detailed Federal aid data for the three budget years. Table H - l l , "Federal Grants to State and Local Governments—Outlays and Budget Authority/' provides detailed budget authority and outlay data for grants and shared revenues. Table H-12, "Credit Assistance to State and Local Governments," provides information on direct and guaranteed loans to State and local governments. 4 The operating account contains all transactions except those of social insurance funds, including expenditures for capital investment. Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1982 estimate 1981 actual OUTLAYS 30 45 30 52 75 82 1983 estimate Function, agency and program National defense: Department of Defense—Military: National Guard centers construction 34 Federal Emergency Management Agency 72 106 Total, national defense 480 137 515 163 Energy: Department of Commerce: Energy conservation grants 229 Tennessee Valley Authority 180 617 679 409 71 70 17 6 28 13 4 37 50 6 6 2 27 50 47 39 45 13 3 4 64 276 8 128 38 179 2 133 16 292 141 Total, energy Natural resources and environment: Department of Agriculture: Watershed and flood prevention operations Soil and water conservation grants Resource conservation and development Forest research State and private forestry Department of Commerce: NOAA—Coastal zone management NOAA—Operations research and facilities Department of the Interior: National recreation and preservation Urban park and recreation fund Land and water conservation fund Land acquisition Fish and Wildlife grants Functional code 1 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY 051 054 44 59 81 050 44 59 81 272 271 420 59 4 270 420 59 4 301 302 302 302 302 50 50 14 6 42 11 5 35 30 9 302 306 45 50 -9 44 1 171 8 303 303 303 303 303 i32 10 145 *8 H O HH > r > > CO i—i CO K 3 26 2 3 * 159 to ZD Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Function, agency and program 51 OUTLAYS 44 26 1 11 76 5 6 96 5 300 3,881 229 4,050 12 210 3,350 25 5,110 4,166 * 7 4,944 * 22 * Historic preservation fund Miscellaneous permanent appropriations Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation, and Enforcement. Bureau of Mines Youth conservation corps Environmental Protection Agency: Abatement, control, and compliance Construction grants Hazardous substance response trust fund Water Resources Council Total, natural resources and environment. Functional code 1 303 303 302 306 302 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY 24 25 * 71 18 * * 84 9 115 241 2,400 23 184 2,400 33 304 304 304 301 297 1,605 300 2,534 3,082 2,963 352 352 351 352 117 304 409 2 129 314 458 1 136 312 350 831 902 448 7 117 301 409 2 127 310 458 1 Agriculture: Department of Agriculture: Cooperative State research service., 133 Extension service 308 418 Commodity Credit Corporation Agricultural Marketing Service 829 896 859 2 2 2 2 Commerce and housing credit: Department of Agriculture: Rural housing supervisory assistance grants.. 2 Department of Commerce: Minority business development 371 376 1 2 2 2 4 5 2 370 3 2 2 401 6 * 16 18 Total, agriculture.. Total, commerce and housing credit Transportation: Department of Transportation: 14 Highway beautification Interstate transfer grants—highways Federal aid highways (trust fund) Highway related safety grants Appalachian highway system Other highway aid National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Federal Railroad Administration Urban Mass Transportation Administration Airport and airway trust fund State boating safety assistance National recreational boating safety Research and special programs Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Total, transportation Community and regional development: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Appalachian housing fund Disaster relief Public works acceleration Department of Agriculture: Rural development planning grants Rural water and waste disposal grants Rural development grants Rural community fire protection grants Department of Commerce: Economic development assistance programs Local public works program Drought assistance program Regional development programs Regional development commissions NOAA: Coastal energy impact fund Energy conservation grants 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 401 402 403 403 407 401 400 8,869 -16 288 8,101 150 7,632 * 79 57 106 77 4,585 570 43 102 60 3,432 450 102 20 3,089 450 3 66 2 52 5 2 52 14,323 12,531 11,581 co M O HH > f > 452 452 453 452 292 144 158 202 452 452 452 452 5 200 5 4 452 452 453 452 452 452 452 365 19 25 10 > 218 t" *< w 55 ffi i25 120 3 198 -7 -14 CO Table H - l l . FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued CO K> (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Function, agency and program OUTLAYS 4,042 371 4,005 525 3,350 550 39 9 156 10 1 18 12 20 5 112 8 1 17 14 5 6,124 5,933 70 8 * 19 16 5,010 6 25 24 5 368 2,646 2,707 54 180 5 255 2,912 2,168 46 493 286 5 11 1,974 2,270 39 383 136 5 52 9 5 68 25 4 64 18 * 20 Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community development grants Urban development action grants Rental rehabilitation grants Planning assistance Neighborhood self-help development program Urban renewal programs Other categorical programs replaced by block grants New Community Development Corporation Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs Neighborhood Reinvestment Corporation Total, community and regional development Education, training, employment, and social services: Department of Commerce: Job opportunities program Public telecommunications facilities, planning and construction Department of Health and Human Services: Services to selected groups Work incentives Social services block grant Services to selected groups Research and demonstration projects Child welfare block grants Community services Department of the Interior: Operation of Indian programs Indian education assistance Impact aid construction Functional code 1 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 452 451 3,695 675 -4 18 12 17 14 19 16 3 450 5,495 4,578 4,419 3 GO o > 504 503 20 18 501 504 506 506 506 506 506 5 351 2,399 2,470 47 174 5 232 2,400 2,447 39 465 336 501 501 501 5 77 22 5 67 8 3,456 440 16 1 3,456 440 150 H ffi M W d U O M H * W *< M > 5 1,974 2,231 26 380 91 4 47 W h-* 00 CO 5,926 52 852 51 730 683 576 162 3,266 53 55 -7 532 551 183 172 1,531 1 723 3,345 627 1,023 160 78 11 80 20 1,111 2,944 583 1,255 138 75 1 87 19 632 2,537 527 871 127 55 21,146 17,310 12,281 14 444 336 33 137 92 16 * * 30 30 32 968 114 664 240 1,148 151 684 233 16,833 17,823 1,627 92 147 125 385 17,006 40 5 48 5 49 4 18,895 20,122 19,469 See footnotes at end of table. Department of Labor: Employment and training assistance Community service employment for older Americans Temporary employment assistance Grants to States for unemployment insurance and employment Unemployment trust fund: Training and employment Department of Treasury: Impact aid Community Services Administration Corporation for Public Broadcasting Foundation for Education Assistance: Vocational and adult education Compensatory education for the disadvantaged Special programs and populations Education for the handicapped Bilingual education Student financial assistance 2 Higher and continuing education Libraries National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities Total, education, training, employment, and social services. Health: Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention Department of Agriculture-. Food Safety and Inspection Service Department of Health and Human Services: Health Services Administration 2 Centers for Disease Control Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration 2 Health Resources Administration Office of Assistant Secretary for Health: health block g r a n t s 2 Medicaid 2 Department of Labor: Occupational Safety and Health Administration Mine Safety and Health Administration Total, health 504 504 504 504 504 501 506 503 6,070 67 431 24 751 635 480 162 2,373 16 1,800 19 505 440 14 444 284 172 137 501 501 501 501 501 502 502 503 503 775 3,098 530 1,015 147 77 5 84 24 629 2,469 452 778 118 74 450 1,937 416 836 89 58 21 13 500 19,946 14,147 11,178 W § > r > $ co I—I 554 554 31 30 32 1,422 62 551 551 551 551 551 551 968 115 549 195 859 138 432 149 17,440 17,968 39 514 12,925 554 554 44 6 47 3 51 5 550 19,348 19,627 15,051 U1 ffi CO 00 Table H - l l . CO FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Function, agency and program OUTLAYS 17 7 285 489 20 8 418 774 100 3,259 928 104 33 2,581 914 137 45 8,462 23 8,070 1,608 641 1 1,687 736 1 3,105 929 1 1,315 46 3,493 1,278 4 1,541 3,789 1,110 6 1,605 21,341 21,718 20,331 21 5 365 578 780 42 2 2,561 127 96 15 5,422 387 1,655 1,168 597 * Income security: Department of Agriculture: Rural housing for domestic farm labor 2 Mutual and self-help housing 2 Agricultural Marketing Service 2 Food stamp program 2 Nutrition assistance for Puerto R i c o 2 Nutrition assistance for the territories 2 Special milk program 2 Child nutrition programs 2 Special supplemental food programs (WIC) 2 Food donations program 2 Department of Health and Human Services: Supplemental security income program 2 Assistance payments programs 2 Child support enforcement Combined welfare administration Emergency and energy assistance 2 Refugee and entrant assistance 2 Payments to States from receipts for child support Department of Housing and Urban Development: Subsidized housing programs 2 Operation of housing projects 2 Congregate services program 2 Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund (training and employment) Community Services Administration 2 Total, income security Functional code 1 1982 estimate 1981 actual 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY 377 507 14 4 457 809 114 3,272 924 129 27 2,693 931 141 609 609 609 609 609 609 609 35 8,440 22 6,051 1,714 745 1,574 628 604 604 604 603 609 17,785 1,071 568 1,293 -3,731 1,075 1,252 1,408 1,605 600 36,392 16,621 12,675 604 604 605 605 605 605 605 605 605 605 25 * * 12 405 546 825 44 2,673 H ffi M W CI d O M H ^ O W 65 15 5,422 387 1,655 1,168 509 * Cfl O > r Kj M > w 00 00 41 1 9 23 1 43 4 9 7 3 44 74 66 65 1 8 8 307 1 8 225 10 6 5 Veterans benefits and services: Veterans Administration: Medical c a r e 2 Medical administration and miscellaneous operating expenses Grants for construction of State extended care facilities 2 Assistance for health manpower training institutions Grants for the construction of State veterans cemeteries Total, veterans benefits and services Administration of justice: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Fair housing assistance.... Department of Justice: National Institute of Corrections 11 Law enforcement assistance 84 Research and statistics * Revolving fund Equal Employment Opportunity Commission 17 6 * * 15 17 333 257 118 73 117 18 81 101 9 General government: Department of the Interior: 62 Administration of territories 101 Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands Office of Personnel Management (intergovernmental personnel assistance) 208 190 163 241 5 242 5 342 5 104 436 12 113 96 594 9 57 45 756 4 54 * * See footnotes at end of table. Total, administration of justice Total, general government General purpose fiscal assistance: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service permanent appropriations Department of Defense—Civil: Water resources permanent appropriationsDepartment of the Interior: Payments in lieu of taxes Bureau of Land Management permanent appropriations Fish and Wildlife Service Payments to U.S. territories Internal revenue collections for the Virgin Islands 703 703 703 703 705 41 700 43 4 16 44 61 63 64 751 6 5 6 754 754 754 754 751 8 82 9 61 9 18 18 18 750 113 93 32 806 806 806 73 95 14 85 97 52 76 800 182 182 128 852 852 241 5 242 5 342 6 852 852 852 852 852 103 436 14 66 96 594 10 54 45 756 4 54 * 15 5 18 2 U1 w o > t-1 > > 5 w HH GO X CO cn Table H - l l . 00 cn FEDERAL GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—OUTLAYS AND BUDGET AUTHORITY—Continued (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Function, agency and program Functional code 1 58 240 365 * 4,570 2 77 265 402 * 4,567 81 270 425 * 6,710 6,319 6,549 94,762 91,220 81,418 Department of the Treasury: State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Antirecession financial assistance fund U.S. Customs Service Internal revenue collections for Puerto Rico Federal payment to the District of Columbia Federal Energy Regulatory Commission: Payments to States under Federal Power Act Total, general purpose fiscal assistance Total, grants-in-aid * $500 thousand or less. 1 For a description of these codes, see Table 13 in the Budget of the United States Government, 1983. 2 Programs included in the "Grants for payments to individuals" category shown in Table H-6. 1982 estimate 1983 estimate BUDGET AUTHORITY OUTLAYS 5,137 1981 actual 851 852 852 852 852 852 4,570 4,567 4,567 71 236 365 77 265 402 81 270 425 * * * 850 6,109 6,311 6,549 105,802 78,259 65,176 H ffi M ttf c! a o w H o S3 Cfl o > r KJ >m w Table H - 1 2 . CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1 (In millions of dollars) Direct loans Function, agency and program Natural resources and environment: Department of the Interior: Drought emergency loan fund.. Agriculture: Department of Agriculture: Agriculture credit insurance fund.. Commerce and housing credit: Department of Agriculture: Rural housing insurance fundTransportation: Department of Commerce: Federal ship financing fund ( M A R A D ) . Department of Transportation: Federal aid highways (trust fund).. Right-of-way revolving fund. Urban mass transportation fund.. See footnotes at end of table. 1981 actual New loans Net loans Outstandings. 1982 estimate -5 25 Guaranteed loans 1983 estimate - 2 22 - i 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 7 20 New loans Net loans Outstandings. New loans Net loans Outstandings. *5 1 * 23 23 New loans Net loans Outstandings.. 31 21 192 New loans Net loans Outstandings.. 12 12 15 19 19 34 New loans Net loans Outstandings.. 7 7 195 45 45 240 240 New loans Net loans Outstandings. 47 47 47 50 38 230 25 12 242 Table H - 1 2 . CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ^Continued CO 00 (In millions of dollars) Direct Function, agency and program Total, transportation Community and regional development: Department of Agriculture.Rural development insurance fund Department of Commerce: Drought assistance program Coastal energy impact fund Department of the Interior: Emergency fund Department of Housing and Urban Development: Urban renewal programs Revolving fund (liquidating programs) 1981 actual New loans Net loans Outstandings loans 1982 estimate 19 19 257 Guaranteed 1983 estimate 64 64 321 32 32 353 1981 actual 31 21 192 loans 1982 estimate 50 38 230 1983 estimate 25 12 242 H S3 M W New loans Net loans Outstandings 867 10 242 New loans Net loans Outstandings 1 -6 91 -8 83 -8 75 New loans Net loans Outstandings 34 34 67 30 29 96 15 13 109 866 -36 206 a a o 668 1 207 M H ^ O W o > f M > W New loans Net loans Outstandings -5 25 -2 22 New loans Net loans Outstandings 61 -9 12 30 -12 — 17 416 -18 399 1 New loans 1 Net loans 1 Outstandings * . . ... -2 20 13 -94 181 38 661 1,060 5 -45 136 5 -45 91 Community development loans., Total, community and regional development., Education, training, employment and social services: Foundation for Education Assistance: Student loan insurance fund Student financial assistance- Department of the Treasury: Higher education facilities loan fund.. New loans Net loans Outstandings New loans Net loans Outstandings.. Income security: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing See footnotes at end of table. 926 -46 New loans Net loans Outstandings. New loans Net loans Outstandings. 720 666 1,471 120 106 180 135 98 278 59 255 125 61 316 140 53 369 -66 2 2 97 New loans Net loans Outstandings. 20 1 20 1 20 1 - 6 - 6 - 6 153 147 — 17 945 -19 926 -20 159 4 —3 271 4 —3 268 3 -4 264 -17 945 -19 926 -20 New loans Net loans Outstandings. - 6 -5 175 - 6 180 New loans Net loans Outstandings. 4,392 180 368 3,000 -50 318 Total education, training, employment, and social New loans Net loans services. Outstandings. Health: Department of Health and Human Services: Medical facilities guarantee and loan fund.. 962 7 852 45 28 74 170 2,000 318 906 906 Table H - 1 2 . CREDIT ASSISTANCE TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ^Continued O (In millions of dollars) Direct loans Function, agency and program General GovernmentDepartment of the Interior: Administration of territories General purpose fiscal assistance.Department of the Treasury: New York City loan guarantees Other independent agencies: Loans to the District of Columbia Total, general purpose fiscal assistance 1982 estimate 1981 * actual New loans Net loans Outstandings Guaranteed loans 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 66 30 30 96 300 211 938 300 207 1,144 1 1 18 * -18 New loans Net loans Outstandings New loans Net loans Outstandings 214 107 1,567 225 117 1,684 145 116 1,799 New loans Net loans Outstandings 214 107 1,567 225 117 1,684 145 116 1,799' 1983 estimate -1 95 3 M W C a o w H -132 1,012 o » Cfl o > r 300 211 938 300 207 1,144 K! w > -132 1,012 w oo oo Grand total New loans Net loans Outstandings 5,598 293 3,699 4,220 48 3,747 2,901 795 4,542 398 148 2,428 508 316 2,744 167 -87 2,656 1 Only direct loans are included in budget outlays. New direct loans less loan repayments, sales, etc., are net loans, which are counted in the budget as outlays. Guaranteed loans are non-Federal loans guaranteed by the Federal government. For a discussion of credit in the budget, see Special Analysis, F, "Federal Credit Programs" SPECIAL ANALYSIS I CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. SPECIAL ANALYSIS I CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN T H E EXECUTIVE BRANCH This Administration is committed to reducing Federal civilian employment. • As the first official act after inauguration, the President instituted a freeze on Federal civilian hiring. • Subsequently, in the March 1981 revision of the 1982 Budget, significant reductions in nondefense agency employment were proposed. • In September, the President announced the goal of a further reduction of 75,000 workyears in nondefense agency employment, during the period 1982-1984. F U L L - T I M E EQUIVALENT OF TOTAL FEDERAL CIVILIAN IN THE EXECUTIVE EMPLOYMENT BRANCH Control of Federal agency civilian employment was shifted to a full-time equivalent (FTE) or workyear basis for the executive branch beginning with fiscal year 1982. (Section 904 of the 19,82 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 97-86) exempts the Department of Defense from full-time equivalent employment controls. Postal Service employment, which by law is not subject to Presidential control, is also excluded.) The estimated workyears for the executive branch, excluding employment exempt from ceilings (but including the Department of Defense) are: Fiscal year 1981 Full-time equivalent employment: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Total 1982 1983 1,867,600 243,100 1,891,300 189,100 1,874,600 179,100 2,110,700 2,080,300 2,053,700 Full-time permanent employment is expected to account for 91 percent of the total workforce in 1983. The remainder is made up of part-time employees, intermittent employees (those employed on an irregular basis), and full-time temporary employees (generally, in positions occupied for less than 1 year). THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 4 Table 1-1 is a tabulation of full-time equivalent employment estimates for the major departments and agencies of the executive branch. Table 1-1. FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT OF TOTAL FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH 1 (Excluding the Postal Service) Fiscal year 1981 estimate 2 Agriculture Commerce 4 5 Defense—civil functions Health and Human Services 6 Housing and Urban Development Interior 5 6 Justice56 Labor State Transportation 4 Treasury 6 Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other: Foundation for Education Assistance 6 General Services Administration International Communication A g e n c y 6 International Development Cooperation Agency Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Personnel Management Panama Canal Commission Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority Miscellaneous 5 6 Undistributed reduction Subtotal Defense—military functions 6 Subtotal Contingencies 8 Total 7 1982 revised Budget estimate 3 1982 current estimate 1983 estimate 1984 estimate 117,300 52,600 34,400 148,400 16,100 85,900 56,900 22,600 23,400 58,800 123,900 12,700 121,000 45,500 32,300 154,400 15,700 87,400 55,100 21,600 22,900 69,300 124,400 12,900 117,000 45,600 32,300 147,600 14,900 85,000 56,400 19,200 23,000 60,100 122,200 12,200 111,000 40,500 30,700 141,400 14,400 81,600 55,800 18,600 23,300 61,900 123,000 10,500 108,900 38,200 29,100 137,600 14,100 79,300 54,400 18,400 23,500 62,500 122,200 10,500 22,600 214,100 22,700 209,600 22,500 215,900 22,000 216,800 22,000 218,900 6,200 34,000 7,900 5,300 32,800 7,600 5,400 32,300 7,900 4,800 31,000 7,900 4,800 29,500 7,900 5,800 3,400 7,200 8,900 5,000 50,100 45,500 5,800 3,400 6,600 9,100 4,700 44,800 47,200 5,700 3,400 6,400 9,000 4,500 42,500 43,100 5,600 3,400 5,900 9,000 4,200 41,400 40,700 5,400 3,300 5,800 9,000 4,100 40,300 39,900 -2,500 1,163,700 1,162,100 947,000 937,700 1,134,100 945,200 1,105,400 947,300 1,087,100 947,000 2,110,700 2,099,800 1,000 2,079,300 1,000 2,052,700 1,000 2,034,100 1,000 2,110,700 2,100,800 2,080,300 2,053,700 2,035,100 Excludes developmental positions under the worker-trainee opportunity program (WTOP) as well as certain statutory exemptions. Data are estimated because most executive branch agencies were not reporting full-time equivalent (FTE) information prior to October 1981. As contained in the revised 1982 Budget, transmitted to the Congress in March 1981. 4 Reflects the transfer, during 1981, of the Maritime Administration from the Department of Commerce to the Department of Transportation. 5 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Energy (DOE), effective October 1, 1982. Employment data for activities previously performed by DOE are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these activities. 6 The budget proposes dismantlement of the Department of Education (DEd), effective October 1, 1982. Employment data for activities previously performed by DEd are included in the agencies that are proposed to assume these responsibilities. 7 Section 904 of the 1982 Defense Authorization Act (Public Law 9 7 - 8 6 ) exempts the Department of Defense from full-time equivalent employment controls. 8 Subject to later distribution. 1 2 3 Table 1-1 allocates to the agencies a 72,500 full-time equivalent (workyear) nondefense reduction from the 1982 revised estimates to the 1984 estimates. This accounts for 97 percent of the 75,000 SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 5 reduction goal set by the President. An increase of 9,300 full-time equivalents was required for Veterans Administration medical care after the 75,000 reduction was announced. Employment in the remaining nondefense agencies was reduced by 81,800. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT EMPLOYMENT Realignment of the Education and Energy functions will result in a savings of 4,700 workyears from the revised 1982 Budget to 1984. Actions taken to reduce or eliminate energy programs, together with dismantling the Department of Energy, will save 4,100 workyears from 1982 levels. Overhead activities alone will account for almost 2,300 workyears of these savings. Actions taken to reduce or eliminate education programs, the transfer of certain programs to other agencies, and the replacement of the Department of Education with a smaller, more efficient Foundation for Education Assistance will result in savings of 600 workyears. Most agencies show decreases, in table 1-1, from the 1982 estimates in the revised 1982 Budget to the corresponding estimates for 1984. • Department of Agriculture (-12,100)—Programmatic reductions and increased efficiencies are planned in: the Forest Service (about one-half of the total reduction), the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the Farmers Home Administration, the Soil Conservation Service, and in science and education programs. • Department of Commerce (—7,300)—A net decrease will result from completion of the Decennial, Economic and Agricultural Censuses, the termination of the Economic Development Administration, the phasedown or elimination of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather and marine related services and research activities. Additional reductions are associated with the energy functions being transferred to the department. A planned increase of about 400 workyears is intended to reduce the backlogs in the Patent and Trademark Office and to expand the Foreign Commercial Service overseas for export development. • Department of Defense—civil functions (—3,200)—Reductions are the result of declining budget and program levels, changing State and private sector capabilities, and administrative streamlining (e.g., consolidation of finance and accounting centers). Reductions due to declining program levels are cutbacks in real estate and construction management personnel and the completion of 20-25 projects per year. Private sector dredging capability is increasing, with correspondingly less need for dredges operated by Federal employees. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 6 • Department of Health and Human Services ( — 16,800)—The Department will reduce employment by: converting categorical grants to block grants for health, social and community services programs; decreasing regulatory requirements for health and social services programs and eliminating overhead functions, closing (or returning to community control) Public Health Service Hospitals; contracting out services to be performed by the private sector where it is cost effective in accordance with reviews required under OMB Circular No. A 76; and eliminating excessive overhead functions. • Department of Housing and Urban Development ( — 1,600)— This decrease is due to reductions in departmental decisionmaking and oversight in favor of State and local discretion in those programs that directly affect them. • Department of the Interior (—8,100)—Declining staff levels will be achieved through reductions in overhead (particularly in the Bureau of the Indian Affairs), closing some facilities, streamlining regulatory processes, and use of less labor intensive methods of natural resource management. • Department of Labor ( — 3,200)—Some reductions will occur in virtually all activities, reflecting both reductions in less essential programs and increased operating efficiencies. Major reductions will occur in the Employment and Training Administration ( — 1,000), where reduction and consolidation of training and employment programs will result in greatly simplified new programs, and in the Mine Safety and Health Administration (—1,000), where legislation will be proposed to eliminate thousands of redundant and wasteful visits to mines that have not been found to be hazardous. • Department of Transportation (—6,800)—Major components of the net decrease include a reduction in workyears for air traffic controllers as a result of a reevaluation of needs after the air controllers strike; a reduction due to the planned transfer of the Alaskan railroad; and overall staffing reductions throughout the department. • Department of the Treasury ( — 2,200)—Reductions will occur in selected activities with staffing held relatively constant in direct law enforcement and revenue collection functions. Decreases will be achieved through the streamlining of current operations, increased efficiencies, and a major reorganization and termination of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms as a separate entity. • Environmental Protection Agency (—2,400)—Reductions are due to elimination of duplicative activities, reduction of Federal oversight and control of State activities and major gains SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 7 in efficiency from reorienting and streamlining the agency's management structure. • General Services Administration ( — 3,300)—Lower staff levels will result primarily from contracting out those functions that can be more economically performed by the private sector under the guidelines of OMB Circular No. A-76. A few agencies show increases. • Department of Defense—military functions ( + 9,300)—This increase is for improved readiness, and for increased workloads in defense industrial activities. • Veterans Administration ( + 9,300)—Additional staffing is required to meet the needs of the Veterans Administration Medical Care System. • State Department ( + 600)—Additional personnel resources are needed for augmented political and economic reporting and analysis from key countries, additional security and communications capabilities, and enhanced administrative support for U.S. agencies operating in diplomatic missions. END-OF-YEAR EMPLOYMENT LEVELS Another way to look at Federal employment is on the basis of the number of employees expected to be on the rolls at the end of a fiscal year. Full-time permanent employment in the executive branch at the end of 1983 is estimated to be 1,873,600, excluding 542,600 Postal Service employees. (Postal Service employees are not under the President's jurisdiction.) Actual full-time permanent employment as of September 30, 1981, was 1,851,045, a reduction of about 21,800 full-time permanent employees since January 1981, when this administration came into office. Total Federal civilian employment in the executive branch is estimated to be 2,077,900 by the end of 1983, excluding 635,600 Postal Service employees. The estimates shown in table 1-2 for total executive branch employment reflect the fractional counting of part-time permanent positions (based on the number of hours per regularly scheduled workweek) as required by the Federal Employees Part-Time Career Employment Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-437). Table 1-2 shows Government-wide Federal civilian employment, i.e., the number of persons employed as of the end of each fiscal year displayed. Information on Postal Service employment (including that of the Postal Rate Commission) is also shown, together with data for the legislative and judicial branches and for active duty military personnel. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 8 The Department of Defense, in its military functions, is expected to increase from 44.7% of Executive Branch civilian employment in 1981 to 45.6% in 1983. Table 1-2. TOTAL FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT END-OF-YEAR September 30 Description Civilian employment in the executive branch: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent 1 DOD-military functions Non-DOD Subtotal Postal Service: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal Special categories 2 Subtotal, executive branch civilian employment Military personnel on active Department of Defense Department of Transportation (Coast Guard) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1,851,045 246,087 (937,819) (1,159,313) 1,888,000 214,400 (947,000) (1,155,400) 1,873,600 204,300 (947,000) (1,130,900) 2,097,132 2,102,400 2,077,900 543,504 119,664 543,000 98,300 542,600 93,000 663,168 641,300 635,600 26,963 26,500 26,500 2,787,263 2,770,200 2,740,000 2,082,183 39,819 2,110,300 36,900 2,147,600 37,100 2,122,002 2,147,200 2,184,700 4,909,265 4,917,400 4,924,700 duty: 3 Subtotal, military personnel Total, executive branch employment Legislative and judicial personnel: 4 Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal, legislative and judicial branches Grand total 32,844 21,423 54,267 4,963,532 Reflects fractional counting of part-time permanent positions, pursuant to the provisions of Public Law 9 5 - 4 3 7 . 2 Developmental positions under the worker-trainee opportunity program; disadvantaged summer and part-time workers under such Office of Personnel Management programs as Summer Aids, stay in school, and Junior Fellowship; and certain statutory exemptions. 3 Excludes reserve components. 4 1982 and 1983 estimates are not available for the legislative and judicial branches. Also, excludes members and officers of the Congress. 1 PERSONNEL COMPENSATION A N D BENEFITS Direct compensation of the Federal work force includes base pay, merit pay, cash incentive and performance awards, meritorious and distinguished executive awards, premium pay for overtime, Sunday and holiday pay, differentials for night work and overseas duty, and flight and other hazardous duty pay. Related compensation in the form of personnel benefits consist primarily of the Government's share (as employer) of health insurance, term life insurance, and Federal retirement and old-age survivors' disability insurance. Also included are personnel costs for uniform allowances (when paid in cash), cost-of-living and overseas quarters allowances, and, in the case of uniformed military personnel, reenlistment bonuses. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 9 The Administration plans to withdraw the legislative proposal for a comprehensive reform of Federal pay setting that it made last year in order to consider Congressional objections that were raised and other proposals that have been made since. A new review of Federal civilian compensation will be initiated. This review will have the objective of recommending revised Federal civilian employee pay setting and benefit structures designed to serve the Government's long-term needs. It is anticipated that the review's recommendations will be available in time to permit a new legislative proposal to be submitted to the Congress with the 1984 Budget. As part of the overall effort to reduce Government spending in support of the President's economic recovery program, the budget assumes an October 1982 pay increase for the white collar workforce of 5.0 percent, and a blue collar pay increase of the same amount. The budget assumes an October 1982 pay increase for military personnel of 8 percent. Obligations for civilian personnel compensation and benefits in 1983 are projected to reach $62.5 billion, excluding the Postal Service. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 1 0 Table 1-3. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS [In millions of dollars] Description Civilian personnel costs: Executive branch: 1 Direct compensation % Personnel benefits 2 DOD-military functions, civilian personnel: Direct compensation Personnel benefits Subtotal Legislative and judiciary: 3 Direct compensation Personnel benefits Subtotal 1981 actual Military personnel costs:5 Direct compensation Personnel benefits 6 Subtotal 1983 estimate 47,547 8,608 48,220 9,205 50,134 9,456 (19,956) (2,064) (20,528) (2,205) (21,728) (2,329) 56,155 57,425 59,590 856 82 936 93 982 99 938 1,029 1,081 1,274 1,839 57,093 59,728 62,510 31,414 2,738 38,060 2,851 42,208 3,417 34,152 40,911 45,625 4,516 3,007 Allowance for civilian pay raise 4 Total, civilian personnel costs 1982 estimate Allowance for military pay raise Total, military pay costs 34,152 45,427 48,632 Grand total, personnel costs 91,245 105,155 111,142 1 Excludes the Postal Service, reflecting conversion to independent status, consistent with the Postal Service Reorganization Act of 1970. 2 In addition to the employing agency's contributions for the costs of life and health insurance, and retirement, this amount includes transfers from general revenues to amortize the effects of general pay increases on Federal retirement systems, for employees in the legislative and judicial branches as well as employees (nonpostal) in the executive branch. The transfers amounted to $3,298 million in 1981 and are estimated'to be $3,298 million in 1982 and $3,599 million in 1983. 3 Excludes members and officers of Congress. 4 This allowance assumes some absorption. 5 Excludes reserve components. 6 Excludes payments to current military retirees which amounted to $13,729 million in 1981 and are estimated to be $15,000 million in 1982 and $16,472 million in 1983. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 1 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT A N D L A B O R FORCE COMPARISONS As shown on the following chart, Government employment— Federal, State, and local—will comprise about 15% of the total employed civilian labor force in 1983. Within this segment, Federal civilian employment in the executive branch accounts for 2.7% of the total employed civilian labor force in 1983, down from a high of 3.8% in 1968. The percentage of the total employed civilian labor force attributable to State and local government has grown from 9.9% in 1963 to 12.4% in 1983. Q a m m m A C ^ m liwotowi^ THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 1 2 GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION COMPARISONS As illustrated in the following chart and in table 1-4, the Federal share of total government employment has declined significantly over the last three decades, from 37.2% in 1953 to an estimated 17.7% in 1983. Employment for all government rose steadily through 1980 due to increases in State and local government employment, but has been declining since then. The ratio of Federal civilian employment to the total U.S. population is expected to be 11.7 per thousand in 1983, the lowest this ratio has been during the thirty year span shown. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 13 Table 1-4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION, 1953-83 Government employment Fiscal year 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 2 1961 2 1962 1963 3 1964 3 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 4 1970 2 19712 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 5 1978 1979 1980 2 1981 2 1982 (est.) 1983 (est.) Federal executive branch 1 (thousands) 2,532 2,382 2,371 2,372 2,391 2,355 2,355 2,371 2,407 2,485 2,490 2,469 2,496 2,664 2,877 2,951 2,980 2,944 2,883 2,823 2,775 2,847 2,848 2,832 2,789 2,820 2,823 2,821 7 2,787 2,770 2,740 Population State and local governments (thousands) All governmental units (thousands) Federal as percent of all governmental units Total United States (thousands) 4,282 4,552 4,728 5,064 5,380 5,630 5,806 6,073 6,295 6,533 6,834 7,236 7,683 8,259 8,730 9,141 9,496 9,869 10,372 10,896 11,286 11,713 12,114 12,282 12,704 13,050 13,359 13,557 13,281 6,814 6,934 7,099 7,436 7,771 7,985 8,161 8,444 8,702 9,018 9,324 9,705 10,179 10,923 11,607 12,092 12,476 12,813 13,255 13,719 14,061 14,560 14,962 15,114 15,493 15,870 16,182 16,378 16,068 37.2 34.4 33.4 31.9 30.8 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.7 25.4 24.5 24.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.0 21.8 20.6 19.7 19.6 19.0 18.7 18.0 17.8 17.4 17.2 6 17.4 6 17.5 17.7 160,184 163,026 165,931 168,903 171,984 174,882 177,830 180,671 183,691 186,538 189,242 191,889 194,303 196,560 198,712 200,706 202,677 205,052 207,661 209,896 211,909 213,854 215,973 218,035 220,904 223,278 225,779 228,297 230,477 232,474 234,645 8 8 8 8 Federal employment per 1,000 population 15.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.8 13.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.1 11.9 11.7 1 Covers total end-of-year employment of full-time permanent, temporary, part-time, and intermittent employees in the executive branch, including the Postal Service, and, beginning in 1970, includes various disadvantaged youth and worker-trainee programs. 2 Includes temporary employees for the decennial census. 3 Excludes 7,411 project employees in 1963 and 406 project employees in 1964 for the public works acceleration program. 4 On Jan. 1, 1969, 42,000 civilian technicians of the Army and Air Force National Guard converted by law from State to Federal employment status. They are included in the Federal employment figures in this table starting with 1969. 5 Data for 1952 through 1976 are as of June 30; for 1977 through 1981, as of Sept. 30. 6 The percentages shown for these years are consistent with reasonable estimates based on recent trends in State and local government. 7 Reflects fractional counting of part-time permanent positions, pursuant to the provisions of Public Law 95-437. 8 U.S. population data for 1980-1983 are the latest available from the Census Bureau. Revised estimates, based on the 1980 Census, were not available in time for publication in this analysis. SPECIAL ANALYSIS I CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVITIES The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 2 0 4 0 2 . FOR REFERENCE Do N o t T a k e F r o m T h i s Room SPECIAL ANALYSIS J CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVITIES " . . . Let us talk today about the needs of the future, not the misunderstandings of the past; about new ideas, not old ones . . . and while our communication should always deal with current issues of importance, it must never stray far from our national commitment to battle against discrimination and increase our knowledge of each other. . . —RONALD REAGAN, June 29, 1981 1 TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF THE FUTURE Coverage and scope.—As the President emphasized, the American ideal of equality of individual rights and opportunity has long since become a national commitment. In addition to the basic guarantees and protections embodied in the Constitution, this commitment is now expressed in more than 100 Federal statutes. These laws prohibit discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, or handicap in such basic areas as employment, housing, voting, education, public accommodations, access to credit, and jury service. Implementation of these statutes is spread among all Federal agencies. Each of the 107 separate Federal agencies is responsible for assuring nondiscrimination in its own actions. In addition, 37 agencies have some civil rights enforcement responsibilities. In combination with the voluntary efforts of individuals, private institutions, States and municipalities, much of this Federal involvement has facilitated progress toward realizing our national commitment. However, this proliferation of statutes and authorities has not been without problems endemic to the rapid, frequently uncoordinated and poorly planned, expansion of the Federal presence in recent years. These problems went unaddressed. As a result, the promises of progress implicit in past expenditures for civil rights programs too often proved hollow. The President's determination to continue America's civil rights progress is, therefore, reflected in more than his proposed expenditures for those activities in 1983. More fundamentally, it is demonstrated by his administration's efforts to improve the effectiveness of those expenditures, and to assure that the national commitment to civil rights and equal opportunity is not only pursued, but realized. 1 This and other quotations throughout the text are excerpted from the President's remarks before the 1981 N A A C P National Convention held in St. Louis, Missouri. 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 This Special Analysis begins with an overview of the obstacles to effective implementation of Federal civil rights guarantees, and the administration's efforts to overcome them. This is followed by more detailed discussions of accomplishments, challenges, and projected 1983 outlays in Federal activities to protect constitutional rights; eliminate discrimination by Government and activities supported by Government funds; implement Federal guarantees of equality of treatment; and help States, localities, and the private sector develop new solutions to civil rights problems. Overview.—The administration found that the rapid growth of Federal efforts to assure civil rights had frequently interfered with their success: —Many of the 130 Federal civil rights statutes duplicated each other, creating overlapping agency enforcement. State and local governments, businesses, and other organizations experienced contradictory requirements and duplicate reviews, investigations, and reporting requirements. This did not multiply protections for individuals. Because several agencies investigated some discrimination complaints, other citizens' complaints were never investigated at all. —The costs and effectiveness of programs were frequently unrelated. Too many agency programs had been funded at ever increasing levels based on their intentions rather than their SPECIAL ANALYSIS J 5 results. Indeed, because they were unable to measure effectiveness, some agencies gauged the progress of these programs solely in terms of increased expenditures. Far from furthering civil rights objectives, such inattention to cost effectiveness more often subordinated those objectives to organizational selfinterest. The suspicion that some who "came to do good" in these programs had simply "stayed to do well" was, therefore, widespread. —Just as each dollar spent did not advance civil rights objectives, neither did each rule promulgated. The reasons were myriad. Inflexible and unduly prescriptive regulations precluded alternative approaches more likely to attain regulatory objectives. Reporting requirements exceeded not only agencies' need for data but their capacity to process it, and serious violations went unresolved while agencies processed paper. Failure to differentiate between compliance requirements appropriate to large and small organizations imposed burdens that exceeded benefits. Essential regulatory objectives were lost in disputes over such minutiae as the placement of posters or wording of policy statements. Some regulations simply substituted new problems and inequities for those they were intended to eliminate. Others had provisions so convoluted that they could be, and were, cited to justify lack of progress toward nondiscrimination. —Not all programs evolved as needs and circumstances changed. Some programs were devoting the resources of the 1980's to the problems of the 1960's (paradoxically failing to acknowledge their own successes). Others, betraying similar regulatory inertia, failed to modify approaches that had proven unsuccessful. Locked into the confrontational style of the 1960's, programs built neither on the willingness of most businesses and institutions in the 1980's to voluntarily comply with civil rights laws nor on State and local capabilities to resolve problems without Federal interference. Because they viewed civil rights problems exclusively as enforcement problems, programs failed to coordinate with related public and private activities (such as job training programs) that could have helped businesses and others meet civil rights objectives. Thus, both opportunities and dollars were wasted. —In its efforts to do many things, the Federal Government did not always devote sufficient attention and resources to its most important and basic role in civil rights: protecting the fundamental civil rights guaranteed individual citizens by the Constitution. Worse, in its concentration on the problems of other institutions, government at all levels had failed to address its own role in creating or perpetuating civil rights problems: 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 either directly, through overtly discriminatory laws, or indirectly, through laws unnecessarily restricting access to occupational or other opportunities. These and other problems led many who dealt with civil rights regulations to conclude that, all too often, a dream bureaucratized is a dream deferred. While few of these problems were peculiar to agency civil rights activities, they were of particular concern in programs intended to protect individuals against discrimination. Moreover, ineffective programs and inflexible regulations compounded civil rights problems by imposing unproductive costs, contributing to economic stagnation. Periods of economic stagnation and decline are historically characterized by increased racial and religious prejudice. And, in addition to limiting opportunities for all persons, a static economy generates a "zero sum" psychology that especially harms such traditional victims of discrimination as minorities, women, older workers, and the handicapped. The administration therefore initiated a program to correct these problems in all Federal activities. At the most basic level, the President's Program for Economic Recovery is creating a basis for the single most effective guarantee of individual opportunities and civil rights, economic growth, by comprehensively addressing existing fiscal and regulatory constraints. This broader effort mandated more specific initiatives in civil rights and other programs. These included new leadership and improved management, increased technical assistance and incentives for voluntary compliance, greater involvement of State and local governments in assuring civil rights guarantees, and other "fine tuning." More fundamentally, searching examinations were conducted of the programs themselves. These examinations looked beyond program's intentions to whether those intentions are realized or distorted in practice, and to the burdens and benefits of their regulations and the way they are implemented. Also, there was renewed emphasis on protecting civil rights guaranteed individuals by the Constitution, and on avoiding discrimination by Government itself. This reexamination and renewal of Federal civil rights activities has not been without controversy. Not every program and not every regulation, come to judgment before the bar of efficacy, has been found to justify its costs or the burdens it imposes. Not every policy has been found to promote the broader equities it seeks, or the consensus it requires for success. And not every program or policy found wanting has been without its sincere and forceful advocates. But this ongoing review has not strayed from its intent to pursue and strengthen our national commitment to battle against discrimination. Nor, as the President has promised, will it. SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S H 7 TO GUARANTEE THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS OF ALL CITIZENS ' 'Recently, in some places in the Nation there's been a disturbing reoccurrence of bigotry and violence. . . To those individuals who persist in such conduct I would say 'You are the ones who willfully violate the meaning of the dream which is America. And this country, because of what it stands for, will not stand for your conduct/ My administration will vigorously investigate and prosecute those who, by violence or intimidation, would attempt to deny Americans their constitutional rights."—RONALD REAGAN, June 29, 1981 To be secure in one's person and property and to enjoy the freedoms guaranteed each individual by the Constitution are the most basic of civil rights. Any violations of these rights offend the American spirit. However, as the President forcefully remarked, they are particularly repugnant when based on an individual's religion, race, color, or national origin. Protecting individuals against such violations has always been a fundamental responsibility of Government. The increased activities of individuals and terrorist groups bent on violating civil rights, however, have given that responsibility a renewed importance. The Department of Justice enforces the Federal statutes guaranteeing these rights. These statutes include the Voting Right Act of 1965, as amended (43 U.S.C. 1973 et seq. and the Overseas Citizens Voting Rights Act (42 U.S.C. 1973 dd) (which guarantee the opportunity to register and vote to all qualified citizens, without discrimination on account of race, color, membership in a language minority group, age, or absence from legal residence), and the following criminal statutes: —Title 18 of the United States Code, which prohibits deprivations of rights and privileges guaranteed under the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including 18 U.S.C. 241 (conspiracy against the rights of citizens), 18 U.S.C. 242 (deprivation of rights under color of law), 18 U.S.C. 245 (interference with federally protected rights), 18 U.S.C. 1581 (prohibition against peonage), 18 U.S.C. 1584 (prohibition against involuntary servitude). —42 U.S.C. 3631, which prohibits interference with housing rights.2 Although not widely known as an agency with substantial civil rights responsibilities, the Department of Justice's Federal Bureau of Investigation devotes significant resources to investigating alleged violations of Federal civil rights guarantees. During the first 11 months of 1981, the Bureau received 8,757 requests for investigations of alleged violations of these statutes, and completed 8,914 investigations. Given recent increases in criminal violations of indi2 Thirty other civil rights criminal statutes are enforced by the Civil Rights Division, but are not as frequently used as the above. 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 victuals' civil rights, the Bureau estimates that such investigations will substantially increase this year and remain at that higher level in 1983 (with requests for 11,000 investigations per year). The President's budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $7.7 million for the Bureau's investigations of civil rights violations in 1983. The Criminal Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division prosecutes criminal civil rights violations. In 1981, the Section initiated 2,542 and closed 2,461 investigations of alleged criminal violations of Federal civil rights laws. It obtained 30 indictments and filed 3 criminal informations against 63 persons alleged to have violated the civil rights of individuals. Twentyseven trials were completed, resulting in the conviction of 29 defendants. An additional 15 defendants entered guilty pleas. The cases brought by the Department of Justice demonstrate the range and severity of threats to the civil rights it protects. One case, for example, involved the enslavement of three migratory farm workers under conditions resulting in the death of one of the men. The Department's efforts resulted in the indictment and conviction of the persons responsible for these acts. Another widely reported case emphasized the Department's increased prosecution of matters involving racial violence. Joseph Paul Franklin was convicted and sentenced to two consecutive life terms for the racially motivated slaying of two black men in Salt Lake City, Utah. This emphasis on cases of racial violence, particularly those involving terrorist groups, will continue in 1983. The President's Budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $5.9 million by the Civil Rights Division to prosecute criminal civil rights violations. The Voting Rights Section of the Civil Rights Division is primarily responsible for enforcing statutes guaranteeing the right to vote. In addition, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) provides observers to monitor elections for compliance with the Act. During 1981, the Voting Rights Section received 1,556 submissions involving 4,887 proposed changes in laws affecting voting for clearance under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. It interposed objections to 14 of these submissions (including plans for redistricting the Virginia legislature). During the first months of the current fiscal year, the section also interposed an objection to a plan for redistricting the New York City Council. To reduce uncertainty and make it easier for jurisdictions to comply with the Voting Rights Act, the section issued revised guidelines reflecting court interpretations of the Act during the ten years since the original guidelines were issued. The President's budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $2.6 million by the Department of Justice for general enforcement of the Voting Rights Act, and $689 thousand by OPM to monitor elections. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 9 Similarly, the Department of Justice's Community Relations Service (CRS) worked in 1981 to help States and communities prevent deprivations of civil rights and defuse tensions which could have given rise to such violations. For example, the CRS worked closely with the Mayor of Atlanta to develop civic unity programs in which white and black citizens worked together to demonstrate that concern over the murders and disappearances of black children in Atlanta was shared by citizens of both races. The CRS was also active in reducing tensions resulting from the resettlement of refugees from Southeast Asia and the Caribbean, the growth in activities by anti-Semitic and racist groups, and the increased incidence of harassment and intimidation of religious and ethnic minorities. For example, CRS mediated disputes between Indochinese residents and other citizens over employment opportunities in Minneapolis and fishing rights in Texas and other gulf coast States, and helped officials and community groups in West Virginia and Maryland develop programs combating racial and religious harassment and intimidation. The President's Budget provides for outlays of $5.7 million for CRS's activities in 1983. Thus, the President's budget for 1983 assures continuance and expansion of the Federal Government's renewed emphasis on protecting basic civil rights. To further enhance these protections, the President has requested that Congress renew the Voting Rights Act, with modifications enabling jurisdictions currently covered by the preclearance provisions of the Voting Rights Act, with records of complying with the Act, to petition for removal of the preclearance requirement. This not only would provide an incentive for jurisdictions to comply with the Act, but also would permit the Civil Rights Division to focus more of its resources on substantive violations of the Act (as noted above, the Division was required to review over 1,500 proposed changes to local election laws in fiscal year 1981, only 14 of which were determined to be potentially discriminatory). TO ROOT OUT DISCRIMINATION BY GOVERNMENT "My administration will root out any case of government discrimination . . . we will not retreat on the Nation's commitment to equal treatment of all c i t i z e n s . ' — RONALD REAGAN, J u n e 29, 1 9 8 1 Equal in importance to protecting Constitutional rights is the Federal Government's obligation to assure that its own activities and statutes are not discriminatory. During 1981, the administration initiated major improvements in efforts to assure that Federal dollars are spent in a nondiscriminatory manner. It also initiated, in cooperation with the States, an effort to, once and for all, get all 1 0 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 levels of government out of the business of mandating invidious discrimination based on sex.3 Eliminating invidious sex discrimination from Government mandates.—Based on his experience as Governor of California (where he signed 14 pieces of legislation eliminating sexually discriminatory regulations and statutes), the President recognized that the statutes and regulations of Government itself are significant sources of discrimination against women. The President therefore initiated major efforts to eliminate such mandates. To address this problem at the Federal level, the President issued Executive Order 12336 establishing the Task Force on Legal Equity for Women. Composed of representatives of 21 Federal departments and agencies, the Task Force is conducting a comprehensive review of Federal regulations to indentify provisions that, by purpose or effect, invidiously discriminate based on sex. The Department of Justice is providing staff support for this effort. In addition, the President is supporting elimination of Social Security provisions that discriminate against women who work outside the home. To assist States in making similar efforts, the President initiated the Fifty States Project. Coordinated by a special assistant in the White House and by representatives appointed by each of the Nation's 50 governors, the Fifty States Project is a cooperative effort to identify, in every State and territory, statutory provisions that discriminate against women. The Women's Bureau is also providing staff support for this project. These efforts were in addition to passage of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981, which included provisions significantly expanding protections against sex discrimination in federally assisted programs (see below). Nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs.—Since the Federal Government is supported by taxes levied on citizens without discrimination, it is fundamental that activities it funds must be conducted without discrimination. This principle is embodied in a substantial body of legislation including in addition to numerous program-specific statutory provisions prohibiting discrimination: —Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination in federally assisted programs and activities based on race, color, or national origin. —Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 prohibits discrimination based on sex in federally assisted educational programs and activities. 3 Federal agency efforts to assure that their employment practices are nondiscriminatory are discussed below with equal employment efforts generally. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 1 —Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, as amended, prohibits discrimination based on handicap in federally assisted programs and activities. —The Age Discrimination Act of 1975 prohibits discrimination based on age in federally assisted programs and activities. While discrimination based on race, color, national origin, age, or handicap is prohibited in all federally assisted programs, the only "crosscutting" statute prohibiting sex discrimination is title IX, which applies only to educational programs. During 1981, the President alleviated this problem by securing inclusion of prohibitions against sex discrimination in several titles of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981. For example, all of the Block Grants administered by the Department of Health and Human Services include such prohibitions. This extended this protection to a wide array of federally assisted activities in which sex discrimination was previously not prohibited. Because each agency is responsible for enforcing the "crosscutting" nondiscrimination statutes in regard to each of its grants of Federal assistance, enforcement authority is widely distributed: Table J - l . DISPERSION OF ENFORCEMENT AUTHORITY UNDER STATUTES REQUIRING NONDISCRIMINATION IN FEDERALLY ASSISTED PROGRAMS Statute Title VI, Civil Rights Act of 1964 Section 504, Rehabilitation Act of 1973 Title IX, Education Act Amendments of 1972 Age Discrimination Act of 1975 Number of enforcement agencies 37 All 28 37 Thus, assuring nondiscrimination by recipients of Federal assistance is the most widely dispersed Federal civil rights enforcement program. The basic complexity of administering legislative mandates enacted over the years with disparate purposes and applications is further complicated by a large body of judicial and administrative interpretation, much of it quite abstruse. As a result, agencies' efforts to enforce these laws exhibited many of the problems discussed in the overview: —Because institutions commonly receive assistance from more than one agency, recipients of Federal assistance were subjected to multiple reporting requirements and duplicate agency investigations and reviews. —Individual agencies determined resource levels for these programs with little central coordination. Therefore, resources devoted to combating discrimination in given programs sometimes bore little relationship to the extent discrimination was actually a problem. This resulted in expenditures by agencies and recipients on procedures of dubious value (e.g., one agency 1 2 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 reported conducting over 6,700 preapproval reviews of prospective recipients, none of which identified any noncompliance). Complaints that compliance reviews and other activities focused on procedural minutiae, not the substance of nondiscrimination, were frequent. —Some agencies imposed additional regulatory requirements unrelated to statutory mandates. Others shifted their focus from nondiscrimination in services and benefits to nondiscrimination in employment, duplicating the activities of the EEOC and other agencies. —Agencies with minimal responsibilities under these statutes were required to spend resources on developing regulations and other procedural requirements that could be more economically performed on an inter-agency basis (e.g., one agency's sole expenditure on this program in 1981 was $35 thousand to develop regulations). —Legitimate regulatory ends (e.g., nondiscrimination on the basis of handicap) were sometimes obscured in unduly detailed prescriptions of means, imposing unnecessary costs and precluding more effective methods. —Agencies frequently made little effort to obtain compliance through cooperative approaches. They provoked unnecessary confrontations, and seldom involved State governments in compliance activities in any meaningful way. A number of efforts to eliminate these problems were initiated in 1981. The administration implemented Executive Order 12250 assigning extensive new responsibilities for coordinating enforcement of these statutes4 to the Department of Justice. The staff of the Civil Rights Division's Coordination and Review Section, responsible for implementing Executive Order 12250, was increased by 11 persons. The section implemented an automated system for monitoring agency activities to identify and eliminate duplication. The section is working with the President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to develop regulations implementing Executive Order 12250. These regulations, to be published in 1982, will: —Assign a "lead agency" for each type of recipient, ending overlapping agency activities once and for all. Other agencies providing assistance will delegate compliance and investigative functions to the lead agencies. Resources will be conformed to program needs, and economical interagency approaches to developing regulations and implementing other statutory requirements will be adopted. 4 Except the Age Discrimination Act, which assigns coordination responsibility to the Department of Health and Human Services. SPECIAL ANALYSIS J 1 3 —Permit recipients to adopt the methods that most efficiently and effectively assure nondiscrimination in their programs by requiring that regulations emphasize compliance objectives, not extensive prescriptions of methodology. —Preclude data requirements and other compliance burdens not clearly necessary to assure nondiscrimination by programs receiving Federal assistance. —Emphasize technical assistance and other approaches which maximize opportunities and incentives for recipients to comply voluntarily. —Increase opportunities for States to participate in assuring compliance with nondiscrimination requirements. After these Coordination Regulations are issued, the Section will begin a major review of existing agency regulations and implementing issuances (such as guidelines, compliance manuals, and training materials) for conformance with these principles. OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs will cooperate in this review. A regulation developed jointly by the EEOC and the Department of Justice will also be published in 1982. This regulation will eliminate another serious problem of overlapping jurisdictions by requiring agencies to refer most employment discrimination complaints under these statutes to the EEOC for investigation. Individual agencies also made significant progress in eliminating the problems discussed above. The Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights (OCR), a prototype of these deficiencies in the past, in 1981 became a prototype for efforts to eliminate them. Under aggressive new leadership, OCR enhanced compliance with nondiscrimination laws by substituting cooperation for coercion, expanding technical assistance, and exploring means of increasing State involvement in resolving civil rights problems. As a result, OCR resolved longstanding controversies with the State university systems of Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Delaware, West Virginia, and Missouri. Improved management enabled OCR to reduce its backlog of pending complaints by 17% during the first 9 months of 1981, and its compliance reviews and investigations helped to assure equal opportunities for over 5.6 million beneficiaries of institutions receiving Federal assistance. In cooperation with OMB, the Department worked to eliminate data and regulatory requirements superfluous to achieving equal opportunity. Examples include the Department's rescission of a form requiring school districts to spend 46,000 hours to provide data already available to OCR; and its withdrawal of unreasonably prescriptive guidelines on bilingual education. The latter provided school districts greater freedom to adopt approaches that most 1 4 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 effectively assure equal educational opportunities for children in their jurisdictions whose primary language is not English. Similarly, the Department of Transportation acted to guarantee that handicapped persons benefit equally from Federal assistance to public transportation, while eliminating requirements that made the cost of doing so prohibitive. The Department's interim regulations enable recipients to implement the most efficient and effective methods for providing transportation to handicapped persons in their localities. In 1982 the Department will issue final regulations incorporating improvements suggested by the public. As noted above, the Age Discrimination Act is not covered by Executive Order 12250. However, the statute largely precludes duplication by requiring that agencies refer all complaints under the Act to the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service, which attempts to mediate the disputes. The Service is successful in resolving most complaints, expediting service to complainants while minimizing burdens on recipients. The General Litigation Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division litigates violations of these statutes. Most of this litigation alleges denials of equal educational opportunities. In 1981 the Division obtained comprehensive desegregation plans for three southern school districts (in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, and Monroe, Louisiana), and negotiated a partial consent decree covering junior colleges in Mississippi. However, most of its cases concerned jurisdictions outside the South. The Division successfully litigated cases involving the public schools in Indianapolis, Indiana, St. Louis, Missouri, Kansas City, Kansas, and Tucson, Arizona; and negotiated consent decrees covering the school districts of Chicago, Illinois, South Bend, Indiana, and Flint, Michigan. The Division also filed three new suits alleging denials of equal educational opportunity based on race or national origin, and pursued suits alleging violations of title IX by a secondary school system and two universities. The Department of Justice also announced a new policy for litigation and remedies to assure equal elementary and secondary educational opportunities. Henceforth, in addition to cases involving illegal segregation, the Department will litigate against jurisdictions which discriminate in the quality of education they provide based on race or national origin. Remedies will be designed to assure that all children have an equal opportunity to obtain a quality education. Both litigation and remedies will seek not mandatory busing, but the more permanent mobility provided by equal access to a quality education. The President's Budget for 1983 provides for total agency outlays of $71.9 million to implement statutes requiring nondiscrimination in federally assisted programs, in addition to $3.3 million for co- SPECIAL A N A L Y S I S H 1 5 ordination and legal enforcement of these statutes by the Department of Justice. TO GUARANTEE EQUALITY OF TREATMENT " . because guaranteeing equality of treatment is government's proper function/'—RONALD REAGAN, June 29, 1981 During 1981, the administration also initiated several improvements in Federal efforts to guarantee equality of treatment in employment, housing, and credit. Equal employment.—The principal statutes and Executive orders prohibiting discrimination in employment are: —Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which prohibits employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, or sex. —The Equal Pay Act (EPA), as amended, which prohibits discrimination in compensation based on sex. —The Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA), which prohibits discrimination against persons aged 40 through 70 based on age. —Executive Order 11246, as amended, section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, and section 402 of the Vietnam Veterans Readjustment Act, prohibit employment discrimination by Federal contractors based on race, color, sex, national origin, religion, handicap, service-connected disability, or Vietnam era military service, and require Federal contractors to take affirmative action to assure that such discrimination does not occur. The EEOC enforces the Equal Pay Act and the Age Discrimination in Employment Act. It also enforces all aspects of title VII (except litigation involving State and local governments). The Department of Labor's Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) enforces Executive Order 11246, section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act, and section 402 of the Vietnam Era Veterans Readjustment Act. The Federal Enforcement Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division litigates all employment discrimination cases under Executive Order 11246 and the statutes prohibiting discrimination by federally assisted programs. It also litigates alleged violations of title VII by State and local governments. The Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972 and Executive Order 12067 require the EEOC to coordinate enforcement of all Federal statutes and regulations prohibiting employment discrimination. Each of these agencies effected major management and policy improvements during 1981. At the EEOC, the administration tightened management procedures and increased productivity. One of the first actions of EEOC's new management was to request a General Accounting Office audit 1 6 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 of the Commission's financial management system. The General Accounting Office found evidence of unreliable accounting records, reports, and fund controls; mismanagement of payments; and inadequate financial controls, including an internal audit office that was severely understaffed: "For example . . . EEOC was still recording obligations against its 1980 appropriation in June 1981 and had charged some of its fiscal 1980 travel costs against the 1981 appropriation." The Commission is currently taking action to eliminate these problems, and will increase the size of its internal audit staff to prevent their recurrence. While confronting these management problems, the EEOC both improved its productivity and achieved savings in personnel and other resources. Charges filed with EEOC rose to 58,754 during 1981, a 4% increase over charges filed in 1980 (charges under the Age Discrimination in Employment Act increased by the highest percentage, 9%). The Commission processed 71,690 charges during 1981—25% more than in 1980. Especially significant increases occurred in Rapid Charge Processing (34% more charges processed than in 1980) and Continued Investigations and Conciliation (75% more than 1980). The Commission's emphasis on closing cases through negotiated agreements acceptable to all parties is evident in the high percentages of cases closed through settlement during 1981: 43% of all title VII, 23% of all ADEA, and 26% of all EPA cases. Settlements provided remedies for over 38,000 charging parties—15% more than in 1980. Total backpay and other compensation for victims of discrimination also increased dramatically over 1980: from $57.3 million to $91.7 million, an increase of 60%. The increases in dollar benefits negotiated in processing complaints under ADEA (+128%) and EPA (60%) reflect improvement in EEOC's enforcement of these statutes (responsibility EEOC acquired in 1979). Monetary benefits resulting from ADEA and EPA litigation similarly increased by 36%. The Commission continued to litigate where voluntary remedies for discrimination could not be negotiated. The Commission filed 368 suits during 1981, an increase of 13%. Suits settled by voluntary agreement increased by 23%, to 237. The EEOC has led Federal civil rights agencies in involving State and local agencies in resolving discrimination complaints. During 1981, the Commission provided over $17.5 million in grants to State and local nondiscrimination agencies. These grants enabled those agencies to process 39,471 charges, and the Commission accepted their findings in over 97% of those cases. During 1982, these grants are projected to increase to $18.5 million, enabling State and local agencies to process 40,300 charges. Moreover, a certification procedure will be implemented for agencies whose complaint processing SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 7 has consistently been of high quality, eliminating routine reviews of their findings for sufficiency by EEOC. The President's budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $142 million by the EEOC, maintaining the 5% increase over its 1981 level granted by the President for 1982. In a period of budgetary stringency and general reductions, this indicates the administration's commitment to EEOC's mission, and to continuing the management and productivity improvements initiated in 1981. Of the administration's efforts to improve Federal equal employment enforcement, those involving the OFCCP were perhaps the most widely noticed. Established by Executive Order over 20 years ago, OFCCP's basic premise was a simple one: To expand equal employment opportunities for women and minorities by requiring that Federal contractors act affirmatively to assure th&t qualified minorities and women were recruited and considered for vacancies, and that their procedures for filling those vacancies were nondiscriminatory in fact as well as precept. During the 1970's, Congress expanded this "affirmative action" mandate to include handicapped persons and Vietnam era veterans. Contractors were required to develop plans detailing the recruitment and other efforts they would undertake to assure equal opportunity. The administration found that this simple premise had evolved into a regulatory morass, criticized both by Federal contractors and the intended beneficiaries of OFCCP's regulations. The most serious concerns regarded OFCCP's requirements for affirmative action plans: —There was no clear answer to the basic question of what constituted compliance with the affirmative action requirements: was compliance based on contractors' good faith efforts to recruit women and minorities and assure that employee selection was nondiscriminatory, or did OFCCP disregard these considerations in a single-minded focus on whether employment goals were met? Many believed that such goals, originally intended as yardsticks of progress, had been distorted in practice into quotas. —Requirements for drafting the plans were, at once, overly prescriptive and insufficiently clear. Contractors were required to produce voluminous affirmative action plans and supporting data, with no assurance that the resulting product would be found acceptable during a compliance review. Compliance reviews frequently degenerated into mindless confrontations over which job titles belonged in which "job group", or how the 8 factors for determining the "availability" of minorities and women for jobs should be considered in arriving at overall "availability" figures. 1 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 —Requirements did not consider differences in the size of contractors or their individual establishments. The same level of detail was required in an affirmative action plan for a contractor employing only 50 persons as for a contractor employing thousands; and for a contractor's plan for a small retail sales outlet as for the same contractor's plan for a large manufacturing plant. —These frustrations with the requirements themselves were compounded by OFCCP's adversarial approach to enforcing them. The potential that contractors attempting in good faith to comply might nevertheless be found in noncompliance was inherent in the ambiguity of OFCCP's regulations. Due to OFCCP's approach, many contractors feared that this potential would be fully realized. During 1981, the new leadership at the Department of Labor developed and published for public comment a comprehensive proposal for reforming OFCCP's regulations. These proposed amendments were designed to: —Assure equal employment opportunities for minorities, women, the handicapped, and Vietnam era veterans without imposing inequities on others; —Change the program's emphasis to generating opportunities, not paperwork, by pruning the lush overgrowth of regulatory minutiae and by emphasizing equal employment objectives instead of extensive prescriptions of methodology; —Tailor program requirements to the size of contractors and their establishments; —Clarify the remaining requirements so that they can be understood by all. This will eliminate guesswork by Federal contractors—and OFCCP's compliance officers. The Department also requested public comment on alternative approaches to several thorny regulatory issues. After incorporating these suggestions and comments, the Department of Labor will publish final amended regulations in 1982. Significant improvements were also made in OFCCP's management, including: —A program to eliminate a backlog of some 250 appeals of discrimination complaints under section 503 of the Rehabilitation Act and prevent its recurrence. —Expedited procedures for resolving individual complaints under section 503. These procedures emphasize detection of meritless or nonjurisdictional charges before they consume resources; and rapid resolution of issues through face-to-face discussions with complainants and contractors. Successfully tested in 1981, these procedures will be implemented throughout the agency in 1982. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 1 9 —Scheduling of compliance reviews based on contractor's individual records, discontinuing the practice of "targeting" entire industries for reviews. —Expanded technical assistance and other efforts to develop closer, nonadversarial relations with Government contractors. Contractor advisory committees were formed to institutionalize this partnership. —Increased emphasis on bringing contractors together with local organizations (government and private) that can provide persons with required skills or facilitate upward mobility by their present employees through training. Previously, many opportunities for substantial and voluntary employment gains by minorities, women, and the handicapped were lost because OFCCP personnel failed to apprise contractors of such programs (including those funded by the Department of Labor itself). While instituting these reforms, OFCCP completed 2,136 complaint investigations and 3,137 compliance reviews during 1981. Of these, 521 investigations and 1,781 compliance reviews produced relief for identified victims of discrimination, including $7.9 million in backpay for 4,754 persons. 867 identified victims of discrimination were placed in or restored to the positions they were denied, and 500 contractors agreed to changes in their personnel practices that will preclude future discrimination. Further improvements through fiscal year 1983 will continue these accomplishments while lowering their cost. A number of area offices will be consolidated to reduce overhead and increase management control. The Voluntary Compliance Project will enable small contractors to meet their obligations while substantially reducing compliance burdens. Nonadversarial approaches to assuring nondiscrimination will be substantially expanded, including a 500% increase in contractors receiving technical assistance activities. The President's budget provides for outlays of $40.7 million for OFCCP's nondiscrimination efforts in 1983. The Department of Justice announced equally significant policy improvements. The Civil Rights Division will continue to seek appropriate relief for identified victims of discrimination. However, the remedies sought to preclude future discrimination by employers will be substantially improved. Previously, the Department asked courts to impose arbitrary employment quotas on employers found to have discriminated. While acceptable to some as a short term expedient, employment quotas cannot assure equal access in the long term as it is impossible to, at once, open a door for some while slamming it shut on others. Henceforth, the Department will seek remedies that are more equitable, and more permanent. These remedies will require specific, result-oriented programs that assure 2 0 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 that persons of the race, color, religion, national origin, or sex employers previously discriminated against are among those considered for future employment opportunities. They also will assure that genuinely nondiscriminatory procedures are used in selecting from the resulting pool of eligibles. By institutionalizing nondiscrimination, such remedies are more likely to produce lasting gains in employment for women and minorities than court imposed numbers, forgotten by employers after decrees have expired. During 1981, there were substantial litigative accomplishments as well. The Civil Rights Division's Federal Employment Section won favorable decisions in cases involving the Virginia State Police; the Jefferson County, Ala. and Garfield Heights, Ohio, Boards of Education; the Philadelphia, St. Louis, New York City, and Jefferson County, Alabama, police departments; and the government of Fairfax County, Va. The President's Budget provides for outlays of $2.53 million for equal employment litigation by the Civil Rights Division in 1983. Through 1983, remaining vestiges of duplication in Federal equal employment enforcement activities will be eliminated. In 1982, a regulation published jointly by the Department of Justice and the EEOC will substantially alleviate this problem by requiring that agencies refer most employment discrimination complaints filed under statutes prohibiting discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin in federally assisted programs to the EEOC for investigation. However, miscellaneous, small scale agency equal employment programs based on program-specific statutory provisions will continue to pose potential problems of duplication. In 1981, OMB and the EEOC's Office of Interagency Coordination identified and eliminated several reports required by these small programs that duplicated those of other agencies. One such form required State and local governments to spend 15,000 hours producing data already provided to EEOC. OMB and EEOC will be examining these programs as a whole to determine whether they address needs that would otherwise be unmet or duplicate activities more efficiently performed by OFCCP, EEOC, or the Department of Justice. Improvements in coordinating the activities of the EEOC and OFCCP are also possible. OMB will be working with these agencies to assure, through improved implementation of their Memorandum of Understanding, that past problems of duplication do not recur. Federal employment—As the servant of all Americans, and as an institution responsible for enforcing laws requiring equal employment by other institutions, the Federal Government has a particular obligation to assure nondiscrimination in its own employment. Moreover, especially in this period of reduced resources, Federal agencies simply cannot afford to hire or promote employees on any SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 1 bases other than their job-related abilities and demonstrated diligence in applying them. Congress has, therefore, mandated that each Federal department and agency make special efforts to assure that their employment decisions are made without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, or handicap; and the President has reiterated his determination that agencies implement this mandate. Under the Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972, as amended, the EEOC is responsible for coordinating these efforts. In addition OPM, under the Civil Service Reform Act, coordinates agency efforts under the Federal Equal Opportunity Recruitment Program (FEORP) to assure that qualified minorities and women are among the applicants for positions in which they are underrepresented. Despite reductions in total employment, minorities and women continue to be well represented in the overall Federal workforce. The additional economies achieved in this Budget will decrease the total employment levels of most agencies and result in some near term dislocations that will affect all Federal employees, including minorities and women. However, they also hold the potential for long term gains through upward mobility for Federal employees in clerical positions and lower pay grades generally, many of whom are women or minorities. The necessity that Federal managers maximize the productivity of their employees will require many of them to look anew at traditional divisions between clerical and professional tasks, resulting in new opportunities for job enrichment, skill acquisition, and advancement through newly created paraprofessional and other bridge positions. The fact that the same managers can no longer afford to "carry" unproductive higher graded employees will produce still more advancement opportunities for the deserving. Federal equal employment efforts in 1983 will build on this potential for increased upward mobility. During its final hours, the previous administration submitted a proposed consent decree requiring replacement of the Professional and Administrative Career Examination ("PACE") now used to examine applicants for most white collar positions within the Federal civil service. During 1981, the Department of Justice's new leadership negotiated substantial modifications to that decree. While the amended decree neither embodied all provisions desirable under different circumstances nor resolved all attendant controversies, the administration succeeded in removing several elements widely criticized as threatening the basic principle of nondiscrimination in filling Federal jobs. The administration will, insofar as possible, seek to implement the resulting agreement in a manner that enhances that principle. 2 2 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Federal agencies, under the leadership of OPM, will devote considerable effort and expense to developing alternatives to PACE designed to measure applicants for Federal employment in terms of the particular abilities and traits required to successfully perform the jobs they apply for. The PACE examination although not without its critics, was widely considered to be a fair and cost effective instrument for selecting candidates for the Federal service. Replacing it with several alternative examinations is therefore not without its potential pitfalls. While Governor of California, however, the President successfully implemented a voluntary transition to more jobspecific selection criteria that improved performance in State government jobs while increasing the number of minorities who held them several fold. The administration will seek to implement the terms of the decree in a manner that similarly realizes the potential, inherent in more job-specific criteria, for improving performance and opportunities in the Federal service. In addition to the challenge of implementing this consent decree, the administration will be exploring more cost effective alternatives of assuring equal employment opportunity in the Federal Government. As noted in Table J-3, even with economies already achieved, the Federal Government's total expenditures on activities to assure equal employment for Federal employees will exceed the combined outlays of the EEOC and the OFCCP to implement equal employment guarantees in the private sector. Much of this disparity results from the cumbersome procedures currently used by Federal agencies to process discrimination complaints against them. During 1981, these procedures cost an average of more than $8,000 per closed complaint—over ten times the average cost for EEOC's processing of charges involving other employers. Despite the high costs of current procedures for processing these complaints, they satisfy neither Federal agencies nor the complainants themselves. Further unnecessary costs are imposed by current data and other requirements for developing agency affirmative action plans (characterized by several of the defects in OFCCP's current requirements). The administration is investigating alternatives for effecting cost saving improvements in both of these areas in 1983. Fair housing.— Title VIII of the Fair Housing Act of 1968, as amended, prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin in the sale, rental, or financing of housing or provisions of brokerage services. Two Federal agencies are responsible for enforcing title VIII: —The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Office for Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity investigates complaints alleging violations of title VIII. Where it concludes that SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 3 violations of title VIII have occurred, HUD attempts to resolve them through informal conference, conciliation, and persuasion. —The General Litigation Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division brings suits to enjoin alleged patterns and practices of discrimination prohibited by title VIII. The Section brings cases based both on referrals by HUD and its own investigations. During 1981, HUD significantly improved the efficiency of its complaint processing by implementing "Rapid Response" procedures in all of its regional offices. Under this approach, time consuming field investigations are reduced by quickly bringing the parties together to discuss and settle the issues informally. As a result, HUD received 2,410 complaints and closed 2,710 complaints and by the end of the year had only 35 complaints in its inventory over 90 days old. Increased processing efficiency will increase closures to 4,510 in 1982 while enabling HUD to reduce the number of staff years required for complaint processing. Title VIII provides for deferral of complaints filed with HUD to State and local fair housing agencies with equivalent statutory authority. During 1981 HUD aggressively worked to expand the involvement of State and local agencies in assuring Fair Housing. HUD provided technical assistance to increase their complaint handling capacities through "Rapid Response" and other means, and $3.7 million in grants to defray processing costs. These efforts increased the number of State and local agencies participating in charge processing by 30% (to 42). Through 1983, further efforts will increase the number of participating State and local agencies to 70—more than doubling the number in the program at the beginning of 1981. As a result, the number of title VIII complaints processed at the State and local rather than the Federal level will more than triple in 1982 (to 2,025), with further increases in 1983. In addition, HUD will increase efforts to preclude violations of title VIII through technical assistance. During 1981, the Civil Rights Division's General Litigation Section initiated 60 investigations of suspected patterns and practices of housing discrimination, and completed 45. Litigation by the Division resulted in court orders and settlements mandating future nondiscrimination in the sale or rental of over 9,000 housing units. The Division currently has 94 suits in progress to enjoin alleged patterns and practices of housing discrimination. The President's 1983 Budget provides for total outlays of $16 million to enforce Fair Housing guarantees, including $15 million for complaint processing and technical assistance by HUD and $1 million for litigation by the Department of Justice. T H E BUDGET FOR FISCAL Y E A R 1983 2 4 Equal credit opportunity.—The Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974 (ECOA) prohibits discrimination in credit transactions based on race, color, national origin, sex, marital status, age or derivation of part or all of one's income from public assistance. The Act assigns administrative enforcement responsibilities to 12 different Federal agencies, and requires the Federal Reserve Board to coordinate their activities. In addition, the General Litigation Section of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division is responsible for litigating alleged violations of ECOA. Since the act's passage, the Department of Justice has worked closely with the other agencies responsible for enforcing ECOA, and has filed significant suits involving alleged violations in nonhousing lending by banks, small loan companies, and retail creditors; as well as alleged violations by real estate appraisers and mortgage lenders. Litigation involving non-housing lending has been selective rather than extensive, designed to eliminate violations with widespread impacts (e.g., one defendant processes 4,000,000 loan applications each year). During 1981 the Department resolved three cases through court orders or negotiated settlement and initiated two additional cases. Five equal credit cases are currently in progress. ECOA's wide dispersal of enforcement authority among agencies, while not consistent with reducing proliferation of agency responsibilities for enforcing civil rights laws, has not produced the problems of duplication present in other areas of dispersed responsibility. Because the structure for enforcing ECOA reflects the division of responsibility for financial regulation generally, it enables agencies to review compliance with ECOA and other financial regulations at the same time. The budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $524 thousand for ECOA litigation by the Department of Justice and $5.9 million for the ECOA enforcement activities of the various Federal entities with responsibilities under the act. As several of those entities are not required to submit their budgets to OMB for review, the latter figure is incomplete. TO SEEK NEW SOLUTIONS . . . "Let us issue a call for exciting programs to spring America forward toward the next century, an America full of new solutions to old problems."—RONALD REAGAN, June 29, 1981. As catalogued above, the administration initiated efforts in each area of major Federal civil rights responsibility during 1981 to substitute new solutions for past approaches that have proven ineffective. These were in addition to advances in related areas. For example, the President signed Executive Order 12320, directing agencies to make special efforts to assist historically black colleges, SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 5 and has requested a record $552 million for minority business development programs in 1983 by the Small Business Administration and the Minority Business Development Administration. All of these efforts involve increased technical assistance to build on the genuine desire of most Americans to implement our national civil rights commitment. Toward this end, the administration initiated a major reorientation of the two agencies primarily responsible for civil rights research: the Commission on Civil Rights, and the Women's Bureau of the Department of Labor. The President's budget for 1983 provides for outlays of $11.7 million by the Commission on Civil Rights and $3.5 million by the Women's Bureau. Congress established the Commission on Civil Rights in 1957 to study the enforcement of laws guaranteeing civil rights regardless of race, color, religion, or national origin. During the 1970's, the Commission's mandate was expanded to cover civil rights issues related to sex, age, and handicap. Since its inception, the Commission has focused its energies on research demonstrating the existence of civil rights problems. This emphasis was appropriate to the early years of the Commission's existence. However, the questions of the 1980's involve not whether civil rights problems exist, but how to most effectively resolve them. The President believes that the Commission's contributions to answering those questions can be more substantial and original than they have been. He therefore appointed leadership that will renew the Commission's relevance. Many employers and institutions have instituted effective programs for resolving civil rights problems. The Commission will devote increased emphasis to identifying these initiatives and sharing them with others who can benefit from them. It will also provide significant "backup" support for the technical assistance efforts of other civil rights agencies. As part of this renewal, the Commission will initiate a study in 1983 of how the role of State and local agencies in civil rights enforcement can be expanded. The Women's Bureau of the Department of Labor, on the other hand, is already making substantial contributions to answering the questions of the 1980's, both by assisting States, municipalities, and the private sector in developing solutions to civil rights problems affecting women, and by sharing those solutions with others. As previously noted, the Women's Bureau is providing staff support for the President's Fifty States Project, an effort to help States identify sexually discriminatory provisions in their statutes. During 1981, the Bureau completed a preliminary study of the progress already made by the various States in eliminating such provisions, and shared the study's results with the State officials designated to work on the President's project. Closer to home, the 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 Bureau is playing a leading role in the Secretary of Labor's initiative to eliminate sex bias from the Department's own regulations. The new leadership of the Women's Bureau is exploring innovative ways of cooperating with businesses and State and local governments to improve employment opportunities for women who work outside the home. In one noteworthy effort already underway, the Women's Bureau is drawing upon the experience of women who have been successful in business. Through a series of regional meetings, the Women's Bureau is obtaining direct input from women who hold top level management jobs, are directors of corporations, or own their own businesses. In 1983, the Women's Bureau will make similar efforts to tap the knowledge and experience of the private sector in developing solutions to job-related problems of women at all levels of employment. From these and similar efforts to seek new solutions rather than to document the misunderstandings of the past will come the exciting programs demanded by the President to address the needs of the future and to win, once and for all, America's battle against discrimination. Table J-2. CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY (In millions of dollars) 1981 actual Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Commission on Civil Rights Office of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Veterans Administration All other Executive agencies 1 (U.S. Postal S e r v i c e ) 2 (Legislative B r a n c h 2 — G A O , GPO) Total "The Departments of distributed among other 1 Includes outlays by - U.S. Postal Service 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 7.9 4.6 94.8 43.8 2.3 32.9 15.2 10.3 38.2 52.4 .8 11.1 8.6 134.2 12.1 3.3 2.7 12.1 21.8 14.8 .86 8.9 3.9 85.7 42.1 2.2 30.9 18.5 9.6 41.6 46.3 .84 12.2 11.2 143 11.9 3.0 2.7 14.9 20.6 15.76 .99 9.0 4.0 89.6 *43.2 *2.1 32.6 16.5 9.9 43.9 45.7 .93 12.8 11.9 142 11.7 3.0 2.8 15.7 20.6 16.81 1.0 524.6 526.8 535.8 Education and Energy are scheduled for termination in 1983. Civil rights and other functions of these departments will be agencies. 49 agencies. and Legislative Branch outlays appear in the Annexed Budget and are included here for memorandum purposes only. SPECIAL ANALYSIS H 2 7 Table J-3. TOTAL ESTIMATED FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS EXPENDITURES BY CATEGORY, FISCAL YEAR 1983 (In millions of dollars) Federal Civilian and Military Equal Employment Opportunity Private Sector and non-Federal Public Sector Equal Employment Opportunity Fair Housing Nondiscrimination, Federally Assisted Programs Equal Credit Opportunity Voting Rights Other Civil and Constitutional Rights Research 180.7 173 13.1 75.2 5.9 3.3 29.1 15.2 Table J-4. TOTAL FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVIL RIGHTS STAFF BY EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY, FISCAL YEAR 1983 (ESTIMATE) Total * Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education** Department of Energy** Department of Health and Human Services Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Commission on Civil Rights Office of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Veterans Administration All other Executive agencies Total Internal EEO External programs* 165 55 94 52 71 3 1,084 21 806 476 230 867 1,091 17 199 254 3,316 215 60 57 71 ** 14 **9 282 25 195 8 50 17 144 213 18 2 60 16 57 ** 1,070 ** |2 524 451 30 859 1,041 0 55 41 3,215 213 0 38 14 11,369 3,566 7,633 * Agency totals for FTP Internal EEO and FTP External program staff in some cases are less than figures for total civil rights FTP because some personnel have duties in both areas. ••Scheduled for termination in 1983. Table J-5. DISTRIBUTION AMONG PROGRAM CATEGORIES, FTP CIVIL RIGHTS PERSONNEL OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES, FISCAL YEAR 1983 ESTIMATE Total FTE Federal service and military service equal employment opportunity Private sector and non-Federal public sector equal employment opportunity Fair Housing Nondiscrimination, federally assisted programs Equal Credit Opportunity Voting Rights Other Civil and Constitutional Rights Research , 3,566 4,409 402 1,907 8 52 673 213 SPECIAL ANALYSIS K RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT The Budget of the United States Government, 1983 Note.—All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Details in the tables, text, and charts of this booklet may not add to totals because of rounding. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT February 1982 SPECIAL ANALYSES A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. I. J. K. Current Services Estimates Federal Transactions in the National Income Accounts Funds in the Budget Investment, Operating, and Other Budget Outlays Borrowing and Debt Federal Credit Programs Tax Expenditures Federal Aid to State and Local Governments Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch Civil Rights Activities Research and Development Each Special Analysis listed above can be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. FOR REFERENCE Do Not Take From This Room SPECIAL ANALYSIS K RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT This analysis summarizes the funding of research and development across all departments and agencies. It consists of two parts. The first highlights the R. & D. policies and trends in the 1983 budget. The second describes in more detail the R. & D. programs of the 13 agencies whose 1983 obligations account for over 99% of total Federal funding for R. & D. The Federal Government does not have a separate R. & D. budget. Rather, R. & D. programs are reviewed and funded primarily in the context of the missions of individual agencies and on the basis of their importance in meeting mission objectives. P A R T I. HIGHLIGHTS R. & D. activities are supported by the Federal Government in two broad categories, namely, to meet: • Federal Government needs—where the sole or primary user of the R. & D. is the Government itself, for example, in national defense and environmental regulation. • National needs—where the Federal Government helps to assure the strength of the Nation's economy and the welfare of its citizens through the support of R. & D. in specific areas such as agriculture, energy, and health. The 1983 budget reflects a clearer delineation, than has been the case in the past, between the responsibilities of the Federal Government and those of the private sector with respect to R. & D. to help meet national needs. The Federal Government has two main responsibilities with respect to R. & D. to meet national needs. • First, it should provide a climate for technological innovation which encourages private sector R. & D. investment that best reflects the realities of the marketplace where new and improved processes and products are developed, bought, and sold. The administration is fulfilling this responsibility primarily by reducing Government spending, regulation and taxes. Thus, the administration's R. & D. policy is part of its overall economic policy. • Second, the Government should focus its direct R. & D. support on those areas where there is substantial prospect for significant economic gain to the Nation, but where the pri- THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 4 vate sector is unlikely to invest adequately in the national interest because the benefits, in large measure, are not immediately "appropriable" by individual firms. Thus, for example, the Federal Government supports basic research across all scientific disciplines but limits its spending on technology development to technologies requiring a long period of initial development, such as fusion power, where the risk is high but the payoff to the Nation is potentially large. This strategy is reflected in the funding for R. & D. to meet national needs in the 1983 budget. Total obligations and outlays for the conduct of all Federal R. & D. programs and for related facilities are shown in table K - l below. Table K - l . TOTAL FEDERAL FUNDING FOR CONDUCT OF R. & D. AND RELATED FACILITIES (In billions of dollars) Obligations Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities Total Outlays 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 35.0 1.5 38.8 1.5 43.0 1.3 36.5 40.4 44.3 1981 actual 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 34.3 1.6 37.4 1.7 41.1 1.2 35.9 39.1 42.3 CONDUCT OF RESEARCH A N D DEVELOPMENT The 1983 budget includes $43.0 billion in obligations for the conduct of R. & D., an increase of $4.2 billion over 1982, largely in the R. & D. programs of the Department of Defense. Smaller but significant increases are also proposed for the R. & D. programs of a number of agencies including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Science Foundation. A major further decrease is proposed in 1983 in Federal support of energy R. & D. to be funded through the proposed Energy Research and Technology Administration within the Department of Commerce. Included within the total funding for the conduct of R. & D. is support for the conduct of basic research, but not the funding for R. & D. facilities, which is reported separately in this analysis. Highlights of the programs of major R. & D. agencies that account for 94% of the proposed obligations for the conduct of R. & D. by all agencies are presented below: • Department of Defense (DOD).—Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. by DOD will rise to $24.5 billion, an increase of $3.9 billion over 1982; this represents 57% of the total Federal funding for R. & D. In 1983, the Department will provide increased support for basic research and for R. & D. related to SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 5 the development of advanced strategic systems, such as bombers, ballistic missiles and ballistic missile defense. • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).—Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. by NASA are estimated at $6.5 billion for 1983, $0.7 billion over 1982. Increased funding for 1983 is proposed to assure timely transition of the Space Shuttle to an operational system and to continue the highest priority research and space exploration projects, including the further development of the Space Telescope, Gamma-Ray Observatory and the Galileo Mission to Jupiter. • Department of Commerce (DOC).—Obligations by this Department for the conduct of R. & D. would be $4.2 billion in 1983, $0.6 billion below 1982. Included in the 1983 total amount is $3.9 billion for programs transferred to the Department as part of the proposed dismantlement of the Department of Energy. This represents a net decrease of $0.6 billion for these programs but includes increases for nuclear weapons R, & D. and for long-term research in energy sciences and fundamental physics. These increases are more than offset by eliminating subsidies to industry for near-term energy research and Table K - 2 summarizes Federal support for the conduct of R. & D. by agency. Table K-2. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Defense-military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Commerce (Energy Research and Technology Administration) Health and Human Services (National Institutes of Health) National Science Foundation Agriculture Interior Transportation Environmental Protection Agency Nuclear Regulatory Commission Agency for International Development.... Veterans Administration Education All other 1 Total conduct of R. & D Outlays 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 16,494 20,553 24,469 15,720 18,784 22,673 5,407 5,276 5,841 4,793 6,513 4,157 5,279 5,466 5,696 5,240 6,460 4,352 (4,948) 3,973 (3,332) 964 773 424 420 326 227 156 147 91 354 (4,522) 3,972 (3,427) 961 807 397 329 317 223 160 137 74 279 (3,917) 4,122 (3,533) 1,033 838 371 366 230 220 186 145 76 272 (5,121) 3,991 (3,350) 892 742 438 418 344 211 151 138 96 366 (4,948) 3,935 (3,390) 1,018 805 402 321 335 209 157 130 94 298 (4,104) 4,039 (3,487) 908 824 380 316 274 206 159 140 112 280 35,033 38,843 42,997 34,252 37,425 41,122 Includes the Departments of Housing and Urban Development, Justice, Labor, Treasury, and State, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Smithsonian Institution, the Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, the Library of Congress, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the Federal Communications Commission, the Advisory Committee on Intergovernmental Relations, and the Federal Trade Commission. 1 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 6 technology development. The other R. & D. programs of the Department of Commerce, such as metrology and oceanic, marine and atmospheric research, would be reduced by $31 million below 1982, to a level of $240 million in 1983. • Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).—Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. in HHS are estimated to total $4.1 billion in 1983, $150 million above 1982, of which the National Institutes of Health (NIH) accounts for about $3.5 billion, $106 million above 1982. The 1983 budget for NIH continues to support a strong national effort in biomedical research, including research related to potentially hazardous occupational and environmental exposures. • National Science Foundation (NSF).—Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. by NSF are estimated to total $1,033 million in 1983, an increase of $72 million over 1982. Included in the total is $984 million for the support of basic research, an increase of $72 million over 1982. The 1983 budget for NSF proposes increased support of research in the natural sciences and engineering and selected retrenchment in relatively lower priority programs. CONDUCT OF BASIC RESEARCH Support for the conduct of basic research is included within the overall funding for the conduct of R. & D. Obligations for the conduct of basic research are estimated to increase in 1983 by $0.5 to $5.8 billion or 9% over 1982. The 1983 budget recognizes the need to maintain a strong national research effort in all scientific disciplines. Basic research in such fields as chemistry, physics, biology, materials, oceanography, and earth sciences provides the underpinning, for example, for advances in health care, improved nutrition and agricultural production, and new technologies for defense, space and energy. The allocation of funds in the 1983 budget provides for the further strengthening of basic research in specific areas of Government responsibility such as defense and space. Special emphasis is also being given, in the national interest, to strengthening basic research in the physical sciences and engineering as exemplified in programs of the new Energy Research and Technology Administration in the Department of Commerce and the National Science Foundation. Such areas of research are of particular importance to long-term industrial productivity and economic growth. The increase in basic research support will particularly encourage scientists at the Nation's colleges and universities in their efforts to advance the frontiers of knowledge and thereby also aid in the training of future scientists and engineers. About one-half of the total Federal obligations for basic research are made to support 7 SPECIAL ANALYSIS K researchers in universities and colleges who conduct about one-half of all basic research performed in the Nation. Table K-3 summarizes Federal support for the conduct of basic research by agency. Table K-3. CONDUCT OF BASIC RESEARCH BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) 1 Outlays Obligations Department or agency Health and Human Services (National Institutes of Health) National Science Foundation Defense-military functions Commerce (Energy Research and Technology Administration) National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agriculture Interior Smithsonian Institution Veterans Administration Education Environmental Protection Agency All other 2 Total 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1,944 (1,750) 830 554 614 1,978 (1,813) 972 616 670 2,034 (1.869) 861 712 759 (741) (597) (652) (737) 580 332 73 45 13 14 15 27 682 359 68 51 14 14 10 28 538 302 79 41 15 18 12 29 575 337 73 44 13 18 12 29 661 354 69 51 14 22 10 28 5,348 5,821 4,975 5,337 5,574 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1,955 (1,767) 898 603 608 2,000 (1,839) 912 673 665 2,069 (1,897) 984 781 762 (591) (647) 532 314 80 44 15 17 10 32 5,108 1981 actual 1981 actual Amounts reported in this Table are included in Totals for conduct of R. & D. 2 Includes the Departments of Justice, Transportation, Treasury and Labor, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Corps of Engineers, the Federal Trade Commission, the Library of Congress, and the Agency for International Development. 1 R. & D. FACILITIES The successful conduct of R. & D. is dependent on the quality of instrumentation and facilities that are available to the research community. A significant amount of funding for equipment and instrumentation is included, but not separately identified, in the funding for the conduct of R. & D. Funds separately identified for R. & D. facilities by Federal Government agencies are summarized in table K-4. Obligations for R. & D. facilities in 1983, including the construction or renovation of facilities and the acquisition of major equipment, will amount to $1.3 billion, $265 million below 1982. Significant changes in R. & D. facilities support are being proposed in 1983, primarily for programs that are being transferred to the Department of Commerce, as part of the proposed dismantlement of the Department of Energy. In these programs in 1983, support will be maintained generally for basic research facilities, such as those for high energy physics research. However, significant reductions are proposed for facilities related to the demonstration of energy technologies, largely in keeping with the policy of THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 8 relying more on industry investment. The 1982 budget includes funds to bring many energy demonstrations to an orderly close or to assist industry in taking over the support of these facilities. Table K-4. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (In millions of dollars) Department or agency Commerce (Energy Research and Technology Administration) Defense-military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agriculture Health and Human Services (National Institutes of Health) National Science Foundation All other 1 Total Obligations Outlays 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 982 964 681 1,112 1,191 644 (981) (955) (678) (Ull) (1184) (640) 278 285 366 238 248 320 114 21 143 35 116 30 147 39 135 39 122 34 25 62 20 43 35 38 (23) (18) (20) (42) (32) (28) 13 47 10 28 16 33 13 35 10 43 15 25 1,480 1,526 1,262 1,627 1,702 1,198 Includes the Departments of the Interior, Transportation, and Treasury, the Veterans Administration, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the Agency for International Development, and the Smithsonian Institution. 1 PART II. AGENCY R . & D . PROGRAMS Presented below are summaries of the R. & D. activities of the 13 agencies that support more than 99% of Federally funded R. & D. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE The primary purpose of the Defense R. & D. program is to develop new strategic and tactical weapons and supporting systems to improve the Nation's defense. In 1983, DOD obligations for the conduct of R. & D. will increase by $3.9 billion to $24.5 billion, which represents over one-half of total Federal funding for research and development in 1983. Within the total funding by DOD for the conduct of R. & D., funding of basic research will increase from $673 million in 1982 to $781 million in 1983. Funding for R. & D. facilities will increase by $81 million in 1983 to a total of $366 million. By mission category, major R. & D. efforts for 1983 include: Technology Base and Advanced Technology Development—There will be substantial real growth in DOD support of these areas, above the 1982 level, to investigate promising new technologies and to avoid technological surprise. Current thrusts in very high speed SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 9 integrated circuits and guided munitions capable of being operated in adverse weather will continue. Increased emphasis will be given to new technologies that offer significant opportunities to increase the effectiveness of existing military forces, such as improved information processing, better materials, and improved sensors. Other programs include work on electronic devices that will continue to operate when parts malfunction, electronics that are resistant to various types of radiation, advanced computer languages and methods of computing high-power lasers and advanced composite materials. Strategic Programs.—The budget provides significant increases in this area for the accelerated development of ballistic missile defense, as well as the exploration of future options for MX basing— either deep underground or in continuous patrol aircraft. In addition, development efforts continue on an anti-satellite system and an advanced technology bomber. Development of the communications and control systems needed to support strategic weapons will receive increased emphasis. Tactical Programs.—Funds will be provided in 1983 to continue the development of systems to increase the capability of U.S. general purpose and theater nuclear forces, as well as to develop the capability to project forces rapidly wherever the vital interests of the U.S. are threatened. • Army efforts include improvement programs for the M - l tank, chemical defense equipment and chemical weapons, and various helicopter systems, and continued development of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. • The Air Force is developing deep strike interdiction versions of F-15 and F-16 fighters, LANTIRN night/all weather navigation and targeting pods for tactical aircraft, and the AMRAAM advanced medium range air-to-air combat missile. • The Navy is developing a lightweight anti-submarine torpedo, a new destroyer and a vertical launch system for missiles. Upgrades to current subsystems to improve detection, tracking and targeting will also increase the capability of major systems now in production. Intelligence and Communications, Program Management and Support.—R. & D. on intelligence and communication systems will focus on communication satellites, on radios that will work in the electronic noise of the battlefield, and on battlefield surveillance radars. Work will also continue on the use of technology to reduce manufacturing costs and to extend the life and capability of existing defense systems. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 10 NATO Cooperation.—Cooperation in research and development and joint production of new weapon systems will be pursued to exploit, fully, Alliance resources. Funding for these activities is not identified separately in table K-5 but is included in the other categories discussed above. Table K-5 provides the details of the Department of Defense military R. & D. funding. Table K-5. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 2,570 578 3,187 5,914 1,565 2,096 585 2,849 736 4,802 7,029 2,167 2,289 681 3,288 928 6,520 7,524 2,675 2,849 685 16,494 20,553 24,469 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R. & D.: Research, development, test and evaluation: Technology base Advanced technology development Strategic programs Tactical programs Intelligence and communications Program management and support Other appropriations Total conduct of R. & D Total conduct of basic research, included above R. & D. facilities Total obligations (603) 278 (673) 285 (781) 366 16,772 20,838 24,835 15,720 238 18,784 248 22,673 320 15,958 19,032 22,993 OUTLAYS Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities Total outlays NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION Through the programs of NASA, the Federal Government makes investments in R. & D. that yield new space technologies to improve the national security and the long-term scientific and technological strength of the Nation. They also provide new knowledge about the earth, the solar system, and the universe. In 1983, the R. & D. request would continue flight missions launched in prior years (e.g., Voyagers to the outer planets) and further development of most major ongoing projects, including the Space Shuttle. Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. would increase by $672 million in 1983 to a total of $6.5 billion. Within this amount, basic research would amount to $682 million, an increase of $102 million over 1982. Obligations for construction of facilities in 1983 would total $116 million. SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 11 Space Transportation.—Shuttle development, testing and procurement of a fleet of four orbiters will continue in the space transportation systems program. The Space Shuttle is essential to exploit space effectively and will help maintain U.S. leadership in space throughout this century. It will allow retrieval, repair and service of satellites in space and the operation of space laboratories, such as the European-built Spacelab, for scientific and technology applications. Because it is reusable, the Shuttle has the potential to reduce the cost of space missions. The Shuttle is expected to operate on a routine basis in 1983 to meet the needs of domestic and foreign users, who have already made significant investments in anticipation of its availability in the early 1980s. Also, regular Shuttle operations are important to meet civilian and national security commitments in a timely manner at the lowest total cost to the Nation. While the Shuttle is expected to replace most expendable launch vehicles, the budget continues efforts to assure adequate expendable vehicle capacity until the Shuttle becomes fully operational. With the second successful launch of the Space Shuttle orbiter, Columbia, the U.S. clearly demonstrated that a manned reusable space vehicle is feasible. The 1983 budget provides the funds needed to make possible a timely and effective operational Shuttle system. Included are funds to: • Demonstrate the ability to use the Shuttle for repairing a damaged satellite while in orbit; • Enhance the payload lift performance of the Shuttle, providing users with additional assurance that its full planned capabilities will be available to both civil and national security users. • Continue procurement of the second Spacelab (with an initial flight of the first Spacelab planned for mid-1983) and continue to develop and procure an upper stage for use with the Shuttle for high-Earth orbit and for interplanetary missions. The Shuttle will be operated from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and from the Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Space Science.—In this area, in-flight projects are conducting deep space astronomy while in orbit and others are exploring the solar system. Most of these spacecraft will continue their flight missions and will gather scientific data well beyond 1983. • The Solar Maximum Mission, launched in 1980, will continue operations and data analysis activities. • Two Voyager spacecraft, launched in 1977, have successfully encountered Jupiter and Saturn, and Voyager 2 will continue on its way to Uranus. 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 • The flight of several other scientific satellites (e.g., International Ultraviolet Explorer) will be extended. The 1983 budget supports continuation of the flight of these satellites in space and analysis of scientific data sent back to Earth. It also provides for the retrieval and repair in orbit of the partially disabled Solar Maximum Mission Satellite. The proposed budget continues development of major flight projects to be launched in the future. • The Space Telescope is planned for launch in 1985 and will serve as a major astronomy facility for a 15- to 20-year period. • The Gamma Ray Observatory is planned for launch in 1988 and will enhance basic research in high energy astrophysics, providing new knowledge about objects in deep space. • Spacelab astronomy experiments, designed for repeated use, will be conducted on the Shuttle to improve our understanding of the Sun and the universe from Earth orbit. • Work is continuing on the Galileo mission to Jupiter; the spacecraft is composed of two segments—an orbiter and a probe to enter the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. The Galileo orbiter and probe will be launched in 1985 and will arrive at Jupiter in 1989 to carry out long-term studies of the giant planet, its satellites, and its magnetosphere. • Experiments will be conducted using several smaller Explorer satellites, balloons, aircraft, and sounding rockets. Space and Terrestrial Applications.—The 1983 budget continues to support research that could lead to the broad application of space technology to national needs. The 1983 budget requests continued funding for relatively fundamental and long-term research activities to: • Improve understanding of Earth resources, climate, weather, and pollution; • Develop agriculture forecasting techniques based on satellite data; • Advance knowledge in materials science through low gravity experiments; and • Extend the capability for satellite communications at higher frequencies than those employed with current satellites. Development of the fourth and fifth in the series of land remote sensing satellites is continuing with launches scheduled for 1982 and 1985. With the completion of Landsat development activities by NASA in 1983, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce will assume responsibility for an operational satellite data system based on the Landsat-D series of satellites. Space remote-sensing technology, such as that employed by Landsat-D, has the potential to improve our ability to manage critical Earth resources. SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 13 The climate-observing satellite program, designed to provide global measurements of the Earth's radiation, is being continued. The mission is an important part of the national effort aimed at providing a better understanding of the Earth's climate. In addition, NASA is developing ways to use the Spacelab (to be flown in the Shuttle) for materials processing and other applications. Aeronautical Research and Technology Programs.—In 1983, support will be focused on fundamental research in all basic aeronautical disciplines, the maintenance of specialized facilities for research and testing, and technology development and demonstration activities critical to the Nation's defense needs. Research emphasis will be placed on: • Aerodynamics, propulsion and avionics; • Flight controls and human-vehicle interaction; and • Materials and structures. Technology development and demonstration projects with relatively near term commercial applications will be curtailed as an inappropriate Federal subsidy. Agency-wide Support Activities.—Obligations for agency-wide support activities will increase by $168 million in 1983 to $1.9 billion. These programs include, primarily, satellite tracking and data acquisition support, all NASA civil service and administrative costs, construction and maintenance of the agency's R. & D. facilities, and R. & D. addressing fundamental space technology problems and opportunities common to a broad spectrum of space programs. For 1983, the increased obligations are needed primarily to initiate lease payments for the new Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System. Table K-6 provides the details of NASA's R. & D. funding. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE In 1983, the scope of the Department of Commerce R. & D. activities will expand significantly as a result of the proposed dismantlement of the Department of Energy and the transfer of its R. & D. programs to the Department of Commerce, where they will be administered by the new Energy Research and Technology Administration (ERTA). R. & D. support for the ongoing R. & D. programs of the Department is provided primarily through the National Bureau of Standards (NBS), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Total obligations for the conduct of R. & D. will decrease from $4.8 billion in 1982 to $4.2 billion in 1983. The Department's activities by area are summarized below. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 14 Table K-6. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In million of dollars) 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate Conduct of R. & D.: Space transportation systems Space science Space and terrestrial applications Aeronautical research and technology Space research and technology Energy technology Tracking and data acquisition Research and program management 2,729 542 340 271 111 2 341 1,071 3,090 568 334 233 111 3,468 682 320 232 123 402 1,103 509 1,179 Total conduct of R. & D 5,407 5,841 6,513 Type of activity OBLIGATIONS Total conduct of basic research, included above R. & D. facilities Total, obligations (532) 114 — (580) 143 — (682) 116 5,520 5,984 6,629 5,279 147 5,696 135 6,460 122 5,426 5,831 6,582 OUTLAYS Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities Total, outlays Energy Research and Technology Administration (ERTA).—Support will be provided by ERTA for a substantial R. & D. program related to the development and testing of nuclear weapons; a general science program comprised largely of basic research in high energy physics and nuclear sciences; and a broad energy research program focused on long-term R. & D. Obligations for the conduct of research and development at ERTA will total $3.9 billion in 1983, a reduction of $604 million from 1982. Obligations for R. & D. facilities will total $678 million in 1983, $277 million below 1982. These decreases for energy R. & D., particularly the decrease for R. & D. facilities, reflect the proposed curtailment of Federal support for major demonstration projects (e.g., in fossil and solar energy conversion) consistent with the Administration policy that such projects are more appropriately the responsibility of the private sector. ERTA programs by major area are highlighted below. The national defense program of ERTA supports the continued development and production of new nuclear weapons. This program also supports the development of improved technologies for monitoring nuclear weapons treaties and of improved methods for safeguarding nuclear materials. Efforts will be continued to develop improved technologies and methods for the safe storage and disposal of radioactive wastes produced by the national defense SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 15 programs and to develop improved propulsion reactors for naval vessels. Obligations for these activities are proposed to increase from $1.5 billion in 1982 to $1.7 billion in 1983 for the conduct of R. & D. to assure an effective long-term nuclear weapons program. Obligations for R. & D. facilities in this area will be $336 million in 1983, a decrease of $60 million below 1982. The general science and research program of ERTA primarily supports research in high energy and nuclear physics. An increase of $56 million to $483 million in 1983 for the conduct of R. & D. will allow continued emphasis on advanced accelerator concepts and efforts to understand the fundamental nature and constituents of matter at about the 1981 level of effort. Life sciences research and research on nuclear medicine applications, also supported as part of the general science program, are continued at a reduced level. In addition, $117 million will be obligated in 1983 for R. & D. facilities in this area, approximately the same level as 1982. Because of the exceptional research opportunities in high energy physics and the demonstrated excellence of the U.S. program, the administration is committed to maintaining a strong national effort in this field. The 1983 budget request of $429 million for the conduct of R. & D. and related facilities in this field represents a $65 million increase over 1982. This would provide for an increased level of utilization of existing research facilities, expeditious completion of the Energy Saver and TEVATRON I and II projects at Fermilab, research and development work at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center leading to the planned Stanford Linear Collider project, and accelerator research and development on improved components and novel concepts. A principal thrust in this field will be accelerator R. & D. efforts at the Brookhaven National Laboratory, related to a future high energy physics accelerator project. Any decision to proceed with this project will be based on overall scientific potential and budget considerations. The energy program of ERTA includes a broad program of support in the basic energy sciences and other long-term research to provide a scientific underpinning for advancements in energy technology by Government and industry. It also includes support for the development of selected energy technologies of a high risk but potentially high pay-off nature, such as magnetic fusion, where significant private investment is unlikely at this time. Obligations for the conduct of energy R. & D. are proposed to decrease from $2.6 billion in 1982 to $1.8 billion in 1983. Obligations for R. & D. facilities in this area will be $224 million in 1983, a decrease of $216 million below 1982. In the basic energy sciences, funding for the conduct of R. & D. and related facilities will be increased by $40 million to $284 mil- 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 lion in 1983 for long-term research in such fields as nuclear science, chemistry, engineering, materials science, mathematics, biology, and geoscience. Such support is intended to strengthen the scientific and technical base for future advances in all energy technologies. In addition, emphasis will be given to providing support for the operation of several unique national user facilities, which the basic energy science program manages (e.g., the National Synchrotron Light Source at the Brookhaven National Laboratory). In 1983, the basic energy science program, for the first time, will assume full responsibility for the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory. This facility was previously funded by the National Science Foundation. The 1983 budget will continue the redirection of the non-nuclear R. & D. programs to emphasize long-term generic research and place greater reliance on the private sector for technology development. Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. in fossil, solar, biomass and other renewable energy sources are expected to be $315 million in 1983, down from $814 million in 1982, with an additional reduction of $95 million for demonstration projects included under support for R. & D. facilities. The budget provides $107 million for the conduct of fossil related R. & D. and associated facilities which strengthen the scientific base, in such areas as catalysis, kinetics, waste characterization, flame research and coal structure. Funding at the level of $90 million will be provided for research in support of solar energy and energy conservation. The 1983 budget provides for a broad nuclear program of fission and fusion R. & D. The breeder reactor program will be funded at $577 million in 1983, maintaining a priority on the design and construction of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR). In addition, long-range research will continue in support of breeder technology. Total funding for breeder R. & D. will decrease by $108 million from 1982, through curtailment of technology development in support of the follow-on Large Developmental Plant (LDP) and through phase-out of the Light Water Breeder Reactor demonstration. In other fission R. & D., there will be a focus on safety and waste management research. The Department, in cooperation with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, will conduct technical investigations associated with the disabled Three Mile Island (TMI) plant. This will permit a better understanding of accidents such as the occurrence at Three Mile Island and will help to prevent them in the future. The disabled TMI plant will serve as a source of useful data to aid this research. The budget includes $205 million in 1983 for the conduct of other fission R. & D., a reduction of $47 million below 1982. SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 17 The budget request for fusion R. & D. and related facilities in 1983 of $444 million is a decrease of $10 million from the 1982 level. This change consists of an increase of $66 million in the operating budget offset by a decrease of $76 million in capital equipment and construction. The increase in the operating component of the budget is based on the goal of resolving key outstanding physics and technology issues before continuing the pace of construction of new large facilities. Finally, the energy R. & D. program of ERTA includes research on the environmental effects of energy production and use which will continue at about the same level of effort as 1982 with emphasis on determining the health effects of radiation and generic research related to synthetic fuels technology. Funding also will continue for research to determine the relationship between the CO 2 content of the atmospheric and the Earth's climate changes. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).— NOAA will continue research programs in the development of systems and components in such areas as mapping and charting; ocean research; conservation, protection and management of endangered and threatened species in the Nation's fisheries resources; forecasting, detection and tracking of weather systems and violent storms; and air pollution. Obligations for the conduct of R.& D. by NOAA in 1983 will decrease slightly from $159 million to $152 million. National Bureau of Standards (NBS).—R. & D. efforts for NBS are organized into four programs: measurement research and standards; engineering measurement and standards; computer sciences and technology; and central technical support. In 1983, NBS is expected to obligate $76 million for the conduct of R. & D. This is an $11 million decrease from 1982. Most of this decrease is related to the transfer of the governmentwide ADP standards program to the General Services Administration. In addition, there will be selected reductions in activities that are more appropriate for private sector funding (e.g., automated manufacturing) and increases for basic research activities needed to improve measurement techniques and standards. Other Commerce R. & D. Activities.—The Bureau of the Census, the Patent and Trademark Office, and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration also maintain smaller research and development programs. R. & D. funding for these areas in 1983 would be $12 million. Table K-7 provides the details of the R. & D. funding by the Department of Commerce. THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 18 Table K-7. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 4,948 (1,347) (395) (3,206) 201 83 44 4,522 (1,504) (427) (2,590) 159 88 24 3,917 (1,684) (483) (1,750) 152 76 12 5,276 4,793 4,157 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R. & D.: Energy Research and Technology Administration 1 National defense General sciences Energy research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Bureau of Standards Other department activities Total conduct of R. & D Total conduct of basic research, included above R. & D. facilities: Energy Research and Technology Administration National defense General sciences Energy research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Bureau of Standards Total R. & D. facilities Total obligations (608) (665) (762) 981 (319) (126) (536) 1 0 955 (396) (119) (440) 0 9 678 (336) (117) (224) 0 3 982 964 681 6,258 5,757 4,838 5,466 1,112 5,240 1,191 4,352 644 6,578 6,431 4,995 OUTLAYS Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities Total, outlays 1 Formerly, programs of the Department of Energy. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) obligations in 1983 for the conduct of R. & D. would increase by $150 million over the 1982 level to a total of $4.1 billion. Within this total, funding for basic research will increase by $69 million to $2.1 billion. Obligations for R. & D. facilities will total $20 million in 1983. This represents a substantial decline from the $62 million provided in 1982. However, it should be noted that the relatively higher level in 1982 was primarily due to the nonrecurring costs for a single large project—construction of new research headquarters for the Food and Drug Administration—for which $35 million was provided in 1982. Health.—Over 85% of the Department's funds for the conduct of R. & D. and over 90% of the department's basic research funds are obligated by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for biomedical research to advance the Nation's capabilities for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of disease. R. & D. programs in healthrelated research also are supported by several other agencies SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 19 within the Department. The 1983 budget will also provide for continuation of these health research efforts in the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration, the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control, the Health Services Administration, the Health Care Financing Administration, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health. The National Institutes of Health would obligate $3.5 billion in 1983, an increase of $106 million above the 1982 level; over one-half or $1.9 billion of NIH's total 1983 R. & D. budget would support basic research. Among the most significant activities to be supported by NIH are: • Basic research on fundamental life processes in health and disease; • Clinical research designed to transfer and apply the results of basic science to intervention, including development and refinement of techniques, processes, methods, and practices; • Cooperative clinical trials of new antiviral drugs against neonatal herpes, herpes encephalitis, herpes genitalis, and rhinoviruses; • Basic and clinical research into the cause, cure, and prevention of diabetes; • Targeted research in epidemiology and risk estimation; and • Test development related to reproductive toxicology, fertility assessment, and neurological toxicology. The Alcohol, Drug Abuse and Mental Health Administration would conduct studies of mental disease and neurological disorders, biomedical factors and health effects of drug abuse, and causes and consequences of alcohol abuse, with emphasis on strengthening prevention activities. Specific research areas would include: • the use of computerized imaging techniques for mapping metabolic processes of the human brain; • the role of endorphins and enkephalins in addiction and substance abuse; • the role of genetic factors in alcoholism; and the role of alcohol in fetal defects. The Food and Drug Administration would support research relevant to its mission of regulating food, drugs, and biological and radiological products. The Centers for Disease Control would continue studies on the epidemiology and control of communicable diseases and on health promotion and disease prevention. Other Health Related Agencies within HHS would support research in areas such as treatment and control of Hansen's disease; survey methods and techniques for analysis of health statistics; and the organization, delivery, and financing of health services. This THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 20 support will be provided through programs of the Health Services Administration, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health and the Health Care Financing Administration. Human Services.—The Department's obligations for R. & D. in human services programs in 1983 would be $100 million, $9 million above 1982. These funds would be devoted to research related to the missions of the Office of Human Development Services and the Social Security Administration and to policy research conducted on behalf of departmental management. Table K-8 provides the details of the R. & D. funding of the Department of Health and Human Services. Table K-8. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (In millions of dollars) Type of activity and organizational units 1981 actual 1982 estimate 1983 estimate 3,332 286 71 74 5 39 35 19 1 3,427 256 73 68 2 30 20 3 2 3,533 289 75 74 3,862 3,881 4,023 70 23 20 56 21 13 59 25 15 112 91 100 3,973 3,972 4,122 (1955) 25 (2,000) 62 (2,069) 20 3,999 4,034 4,142 3,991 43 3,935 35 4,039 38 4,034 3,971 4,078 OBLIGATIONS Conduct of R. & D.: Health: National Institutes of Health Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Food and Drug Administration Centers for Disease Control Health Resources Administration Health Care Financing Administration Office of Assistant Secretary for Health Health Services Administration Special Foreign Currency Program Subtotal, Health Human Services: Office of Human Development Services Social Security Administration Departmental Management Subtotal, Human Services Total conduct of R. & D Total conduct of basic research, included above R. & D. facilities Total obligations 30 20 1 1 OUTLAYS Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities Total outlays NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION The National Science Foundation (NSF) primarily supports basic research in all scientific disciplines through grants, largely to scientists and engineers in academic institutions. The Foundation's support is of particular significance because it complements the SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 21 basic research programs of mission agencies, such as the Department of Defense and the National Institutes of Health, and helps to balance Federal support across all fields of science and engineering. NSF obligations for the conduct of R. & D. would increase from $961 million in 1982 to $1,033 million in 1983, an increase of $72 million above 1982. In addition, $16 million will be obligated for research facilities and major equipment in 1983, $6 million above the 1982 level. Funding for basic research programs would increase from $912 million in 1982 to $984 million in 1983. These increases will allow primarily for cost increases due to inflation in research project support, partially offset by reductions in some lower priority activities. Specifically, the 1983 budget would: • Provide an increase over 1982 in the support by NSF of research in the natural sciences and engineering that would more than offset the estimated cost increases due to inflation. • Emphasize support of the mathematical and physical sciences (particularly computer sciences), engineering and the earth sciences largely because of the importance of these disciplines to the long-term technological advancement and economic strength of the Nation. • Continue support of U.S. activities in the Antarctic—managed by the NSF—at approximately the ongoing level of effort. This support is continued because of the importance of the Antarctic as an area where a number of nations conduct valuable scientific research in peaceful coexistence under the terms of the Antarctic Treaty, of which the U.S. is a signatory. • Continue NSF's research fellowship program, as a complement to the Foundation support of research. However, other lower priority science education activities previously supported by the NSF would be phased out in 1983. • Provide increases in 1982 and 1983 over the previously reduced level of the administration's 1982 (March) budget for the social, behavioral and economic sciences to allow continued funding for relatively higher priority areas. Examples include maintenance of long-term data bases, methodological improvements and quantitative research which are important to the continued development of these disciplines as fields of scientific inquiry. • Emphasize, within the funds provided for the conduct of research, support for upgrading research instrumentation. 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE The Department of Agriculture supports research and development in several disciplines related to agriculture and forestry. Obligations of the Department for the conduct of research and development are estimated to total $838 million in 1983, compared to $807 million in 1982, an increase of $31 million. The Department's 1983 budget is highlighted below by agency: The Agricultural Research Service would obligate $454 million for research on protection of plants and animals against diseases and pests, and on the conservation, use and improvement of soil, water and air resources. The Cooperative State Research Service would obligate $223 million to maintain support of the cooperative program with the landgrant institutions and to expand the competitive grants for basic plant research. In addition, $9 million would be provided to initiate a 5-year, $50 million, facilities improvement program for the 1890 Colleges and the Tuskegee Institute. The Forest Service would obligate $98 million to improve knowledge needed to manage and protect forest and related rangeland resources to meet demands for their use. Research will be conducted on: genetics, silviculture and timber management, watershed management, range and fish habitats, protection for forest resources from fire and forest pests, surface environment and mining, forest engineering and utilization, and economics of forest commodity production, processing and distribution. In addition, $62 million would be obligated for other areas, such as economic research, international cooperation and development, agricultural marketing, transportation of commodities, statistical reporting, and agricultural cooperatives. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR The Department of the Interior's R. & D. activities derive from a broad range of responsibilities, ranging from encouraging wise development of the Nation's energy and nonenergy mineral, water, land, and recreation resources to managing those resources on the public lands in the public interest. Obligations for the conduct of R. & D. for the Department of Interior for 1983 are estimated at $371 million. This represents a decrease of approximately $27 million from the 1982 level, primarily in areas of geological hazards, and mining development and demonstrations. The Department's research objectives for 1983 are highlighted below by major organization. The Bureau of Land Management and The Bureau of Reclamation would continue programs in watershed conservation and devel- SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 23 opment, timber and range forage production, wildlife habitat, water resources planning and research, and dam safety. The Fish and Wildlife Service would emphasize R. & D. activities which: • Improve the quality of habitats and the availability of fish and wildlife; and • Contribute to population control methods and preserve endangered species of fish and wildlife. The National Park Service would emphasize research in archeology and the natural and social sciences. In energy and minerals R. & D., a small overall reduction in effort is proposed. Decreases are proposed in the Geological Survey and the Bureau of Mines, with a small increase for the Office of Surface Mining. The Geological Survey research priorities would include: • Developing accurate appraisal and exploration techniques to determine mineral resources; • Developing basic data on geological principles and processes; • Understanding the ways to appraise and evaluate our water resources; and • Improving uses of satellite acquired data in Earth and marine sciences. The Bureau of Mines would stress: • Health and safety in mines and processing plants; • Helping the Nation become less dependent on foreign minerals; and • Protection of the environment during mineral extraction. The Office of Surface Mining research plans involve studies dealing with regulations compliance, monitoring of coal mining operations and ecological investigations. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION The Department of Transportation's R. & D. program is oriented toward providing the information and new technology needed for its own operational (e.g., air traffic control) and regulatory (e.g., automotive safety standards) programs. Obligations for the conduct of research and development by the Department are estimated at $366 million for 1983, an increase of $37 million over 1982. The Department's 1983 budget is highlighted below by agency. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is expected to obligate $152 million in 1983. The proposed 1983 R. & D. obigations for FAA represent an increase over 1982 of $46 million. This increase will allow greater emphasis on engineering work on the national air traffic control system, and on emerging technology to improve collision avoidance systems and enhance enroute and terminal air traffic control systems. 24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration would obligate $59 million for motor vehicle research, traffic safety research and demonstrations, and other statistical and analytical studies. An increase is proposed in 1983 for continuing the National Accident Sampling system which provides nationally representative accident and injury data, and for focusing analysis on major traffic accidents. The Urban Mass Transportation Administration plans to obligate $44 million to assist in the development of improved mass transportation systems, equipment and procedures. Emphasis will be placed on assisting existing proven transit systems. The Federal Highway Administration would obligate $43 million to continue research programs in highway planning, design, construction, and maintenance to insure an effective and efficient highway system. Research would also be conducted in identifying, and correcting impediments to highway safety and on improving common carrier safety. The Federal Railroad Administration would obligate $20 million to continue its emphasis on safety research. A $16 million reduction in funding from the 1982 level would eliminate nearly all nonsafety research. The Maritime Administration would obligate $18 million to improve the productivity and competitive posture of the U.S. maritime industries. Increased funds are provided to support icebreaking vessels in the Arctic for R. & D. and increased ship research. The U.S. Coast Guard would obligate $15 million to support research to maintain and improve search and rescue systems, environmental protection, marine safety, and aids to navigation. The proposed 1983 figure represents a decrease of $3 million for R. & D. from the 1982 level. The Research and Special Programs Administration would obligate $8 million to support emergency preparedness and mobilization efforts and to support the hazardous materials and pipeline safety regulatory programs. The Office of the Secretary would obligate $8 million for broadbased policy research on domestic and international transportation issues of importance to the Nation. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducts research and development in support of the Agency's regulatory and enforcement mission to protect human health and the environment. The R. & D. request for 1983 reflects a focusing on the highest priority research areas. These areas emphasize the following themes: SPECIAL ANALYSIS K 25 • Benefit and risk assessment in support of Agency regulatory decisions and impact analysis activities; • Scientific support and technology transfer activities to help develop and install cost-effective pollution control technologies; and Improved scientific quality through peer review, quality assurance guidelines, and specially designed information systems. Total obligations for the conduct of R. & D. are estimated to decrease from $317 million in 1982 to $230 million in 1983. EPA's activities by area are highlighted below. The air research program would be reduced from 1982 by $8 million to a level of $27 million in 1983. The research will evaluate and establish national ambient air quality standards, new source performance standards, and emission standards for hazardous air pollutants and mobile source pollutants. EPA research into health effects of air pollution will continue past efforts to assess actual human exposure. Research on the effects of diesel engine exhaust will be reduced, reflecting attainment of EPA's current information goals for 1982. The water quality research program expects to obligate $13 million in 1983, a decrease of $15 million from the 1982 level. In the municipal wastewater program, activities that are more appropriately conducted by the private engineering community, such as design engineering, are being eliminated. All extramural research in the water quality program will be eliminated, shifting all future activities to in-house R. & D. labs. The engineering-related extramural research of the industrial wastewater program is being reduced, due to near completion of the effluent limitations effort. The drinking water research program would decrease by $6 million to a level of $15 million in 1983. The program will continue to evaluate data on the incidence and health effects of contaminants, evaluate alternate disinfectant techniques, provide a national quality assurance program, and carry out research related to the problems of small systems. Research on the nature and movement of contamination in subsurface waters will be expanded. The hazardous waste program would obligate $18 million in 1983, a decrease of $4 million below the 1982 level. This research will support the development of methods and protocols for the regulatory program involving assessing risks to human health and ensuring quality control. Research will continue on developing a better understanding of the various hazardous waste control technologies. The pesticide research program would obligate $3 million, an increase of $1 million over 1982. The research program supports development of methods for measuring and assessing human exposure to pesticides and the ecological effects of pesticides, risk as- 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 sessments, and development of improved methods for detecting chemical and biological pesticides. The radiation research program would decrease by $.5 million, to a level of $0.4 million in 1983. These reductions occur in lower priority research areas, such as nonionizing radiation, which are not directly related to statutory mandates. The toxic substance program would total $14 million for 1983, a decrease of $6 million. Research will support the development of more effective techniques, models and data bases to predict health effects of new chemicals. Development of methodologies and models for defining exposure and risk will be continued. The energy program, which includes activities related to the impact and regulation of fossil fuel combustion and synthetic fuels, is projected at a level of $36 millon in 1983, a decrease of $19 million below 1982. Emphasis will continue to be placed on assessing the health and environmental impacts of synthetic fuels, evaluating control technology options, and providing the regions and States with indirect technical expertise. The 1983 funding includes $12 million to support a major government-wide effort to assess the sources and effects of acid rain. Super fund Research in 1983 shows a reduction of $6 million, to a level of $4 million. This reduction is a result of the fast start-up required to implement Superfund and the fact that much of the information needed for developing guidelines and protocols and for developing the required cleanup and safety manuals will be completed in 1982. Funds for this program are derived from the Hazardous Substance Response Trust Fund, as opposed to general revenues. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) performs research in civil uses of nuclear materials and facilities consistent with public health and safety, environmental quality, and national security. A major share of NRC's effort is devoted to research on the use of nuclear energy to generate electric power. Its research objective is to provide safety and analytical methods for assuring the quality of NRC's licensing procedures and regulatory work. In 1983, NRC's obligations for the conduct of R. & D. are expected to decrease from $223 to $220 million. In 1983, key areas, such as accident evaluation and mitigation and systems and reliability analysis will be strengthened. Additionally, reactor safety research, principally on the Clinch River Fast Breeder Reactor, will be increased in 1983. The Loss of Fluid Test Facility experimental program is planned to be completed in 1982. Funding for loss-ofcoolant accidents and transient research will, therefore, be reduced more than offsetting proposed increases. SPECIAL ANALYSIS K AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL 27 DEVELOPMENT Research and development activities of the Agency for International Development (AID) consist mainly of applied research to solve specific problems associated with basic human needs development and social and economic research aimed at improving U.S. and host country understanding of the major obstacles to such development. Programs in this area reflect the administration's recognition of the importance of R. & D. in addressing the development problems faced by the Third World. Obligations of AID for the conduct of R. & D. are estimated at $186 million in 1983, an increase of $26 million over 1982. Most of AID's 1983 R. & D. funds will be devoted to three critical problems: Food production, with an emphasis on affecting developing country efforts to overcome the growing food crisis; population growth, emphasizing methods of controlling increasing population growth rates in the developing countries; and energy supply, emphasizing renewable and nonconventional energy sources critical for development to proceed. VETERANS ADMINISTRATION The Veterans Administration (VA) conducts and administers medical, rehabilitative, and health services research. In 1983 this agency would obligate $145 million, an increase of $8 million over 1982, for the conduct of R. & D. The VA intramural biomedical research program is designed to benefit patients through increased quality and effectiveness of health care delivery. Priorities for 1983 include special research on alcoholism, geriatrics and hypertension. In rehabilitative research, the V A works to develop and test prosthetic, orthopedic, and adaptive equipment for improving the care and rehabilitation of disabled veterans, including amputees, paraplegics and the blind. The health services research program supports projects at VA health care facilities to improve the delivery and accessibility of health services to veterans. The preventive health program begun last year will be continued in 1983. FOUNDATION FOR EDUCATION ASSISTANCE The proposed Foundation for Education Assistance will continue to support a variety of R. & D. activities in 1983. Included among those activities will be basic and applied educational research; the conduct of surveys, evaluations and experiments in the field of education; the funding of developmental and demonstration projects; the assessment of the performance of children and adults 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1983 in reading, mathematics, communication and citizenship skills; the collection, analyses and reporting of statistics and other data related to education; and the dissemination of information and findings. The Foundation expects, in 1983, to obligate a total of $76 million for the conduct of R. & D. In addition to its general research and data gathering activities, the Foundation will carry out R. & D. activities related to the areas of vocational and adult education for the handicapped, education programs for persons with limited English proficiency, and development activities that provide technical support for the dissemination activities of the Foundation. OTHER AGENCY PROGRAMS An additional 15 agencies (listed in table K-2, footnote 1) would obligate an estimated $272 million in 1983, for the conduct of R. & D., a decrease of $7 million below the 1982 total. Obligations by these agencies amount to less than 1% of all federally funded programs in R. & D. The programs of these agencies, like those of other agencies discussed above, are closely related to the agencies' missions. Among the agencies in this category that expect to increase their obligations for R. & D. in 1983 are the Smithsonian Institution, the Army Corps of Engineers, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Table K-9 provides information on the long-term trends in Federal funding for the conduct of R. & D. 29 SPECIAL ANALYSIS K Table K-9. TRENDS IN CONDUCT OF R. & D. (Obligations in billions of dollars) Year 195 3 195 4 195 5 195 6 195 7 195 8 195 9 196 0 196 1 196 2 196 3 196 4 196 5 196 6 196 7 196 8 196 9 197 0 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 0 198 1 1982 (estimate) 1983 (estimate) 1 Includes military-related R. & D. programs of the Departments of Defense and Commerce. Defense1 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.8 5.6 6.1 7.0 7.2 7.8 7.8 7.3 7.5 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.1 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.7 10.4 11.9 12.6 13.6 15.1 17.8 22.1 26.2 All other .3 .3 .4 .5 .6 .8 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.1 4.7 6.4 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.4 9.3 10.4 12.1 13.8 15.4 16.6 17.2 16.8 16.8