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RNML FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 6 ERRATUM Insert missing chart Q-l on page 2(38 of Special Analysis Q. Environmental Outlays, by Category, 1971-1976 $Billions S Billions 6 6 Protection and Enhancement -5 Understanding, Describing and Predicting 5— Pollution Control and Abatement A 3— O — I— (971 1972 1973 1974 1975 FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 6 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $2.70 THE BUDGET DOCUMENTS Data and analyses relating to the budget for 1976 (and for the 3-month transition period, as applicable) are published in four documents: The Budget of the United States Government, 1976 contains the information that most users of the budget would normally need, including the Budget Message of the President. The Budget presents an overview of the President's budget proposals which includes explanations of spending programs and estimated receipts. This document also contains a description of the budget system and various summary tables on the budget as a whole. The Budget of the United States Government, 1976—Appendix contains detailed information on the various appropriations and funds which comprise the budget. The Appendix contains more detailed information than any of the other budget documents. It includes for each agency: the proposed text of appropriation language, budget schedules for each account, explanations of the work to be performed and the funds needed, proposed general provisions applicable to the appropriations of entire agencies or groups of agencies, and schedules of permanent positions. Supplemental proposals for the current year and new legislative proposals are identified separately. Information is also provided on certain activities, whose outlays are not part of the budget totals. Special Analyses, Budget of the United States Government, 1976 contains 17 special analyses that are designed to highlight specified program areas or provide other significant presentations of Federal budget data. This document includes analytical information about: Government finances and operations as a whole and how they affect the economy; Government-wide program and financial information for Federal education, manpower, health, income security, civil rights, and crime reduction programs; trends and developments in the areas of Federal aid to State and local governments, research and development, and environmental protection. The United States Budget in Brief, 1976 provides a more concise, less technical overview of the 1976 Budget than the above volumes. Summary and historical tables on the Federal budget and debt are also provided, together with graphic displays. GENERAL NOTES 1. All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. 2. Detail in the tables, text, and charts of this volume may not add to the totals because of rounding. TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSES A. Federal transactions in the national income accounts B. Funds in the budget . C. Borrowing, debt, and investment D. Investment, operating, and other budget outlays E. Federal credit programs. _ _ __ F. Tax expenditures G. Principal Federal statistical programs. __ H. Civilian employment in the executive branch PART 2. FEDERAL SOCIAL PROGRAMS _ ._ . _ _ I. Federal education programs __ _ _ J. Federal manpower programs. _ K. Federal health programs . _ _ __ _ __ L. Federal income security programs . _ M. Federal civil rights activities._ _ _ _ _ _ N. Federal programs for the reduction of crime PART 3. SPECIALIZED ASPECTS A N D VIEWS OF F E D E R A L PROGRAMS 0 . Federal aid to State and local governments _ P. Federal research and development programs _ ___ _ Q. Federal environmental programs. ._ _ _____ Page 5 _ 7 28 39 58 82 101 118 130 137 _ _ _ __ 3 139 156 169 197 209 222 233 235 252 268 PART 1 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSES INTRODUCTION Part 1 provides analyses and tabulations which cover Government finances and operations as a whole, and reflect the ways in which Government finances affect the economy. These special analyses encompass those designated A through G. Special Analysis A presents the Federal budget estimates in terms of the national income accounts. It is designed to explain the relationships of the unified budget of the Federal Government to the national income accounts, which constitute the most widely used measure of aggregate economic activity in the United States. Special Analysis B classifies budget information by the groups of funds (Federal and trust) which comprise the budget. Special Analysis C summarizes current developments and trends in Federal borrowing, debt, and interest, and the investment of Federal and trust funds in Federal securities. It includes a summary of both Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public to display some measure of the Government's impact on the credit markets. Special Analysis D classifies budget outlays in terms of the duration and nature of the benefits derived, distinguishing those of an investment or development type from those which primarily yield current benefits. Apart from this analysis the U.S. budget, unlike those of some other governments, includes outlays which are for "capital" or investment-type activities in the same accounts in which "current" activities and costs are shown. Special Analysis E covers Federal credit programs—direct loans, guarantees of private loans, and loans of federally sponsored credit agencies. It includes an analysis of loan subsidy costs, and provides an aggregate measure of total credit supplied to the public under Federal auspices. Special Analysis F provides an enumeration of lost revenues due to provisions of the Federal income tax laws that allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or that provide a special credit, preferential rate of tax, or deferral of tax liability. Special Analysis G reflects the year-to-year level of activity under the principal programs of the Federal Government for collecting current statistics, and current spending for periodic statistics obtained in census-type surveys usually conducted every 5 or 10 years. Special Analysis H deals with the levels of civilian employment in the executive branch. It also contains figures on total Federal personnel costs (including military personnel). SPECIAL ANALYSIS A FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS The budget is designed to serve several purposes: • It is an economic document that reflects the taxing and spending policies of the Government for promoting economic growth, high employment, relative price stability, and a strong balance-ofpayments position. • It proposes an allocation of resources between the private and public sectors, within the public sector, and—through its impact on consumption and investment decisions and the distribution of income—within the private sector. • It sets forth the President's request to Congress for appropriation action on existing or new programs and for changes in tax legislation. • It is a report to the Congress and the people on how the Government has spent the funds entrusted to it in past years. No single budget concept can satisfy all these purposes fully. The budget document and related Treasury reports provide complete, detailed information on the finances of the Federal Government. For study of aggregate economic activity, however, the national income accounts (NIA) of the United States provide the most important measures. This special analysis shows the Federal budget as measured in the national income accounts. The analysis is divided into three major sections. The first shows the size, composition, and trends in Federal sector receipts and expenditures. It contains only a limited discussion of program detail, since this is available—on a unified budget basis— in the budget document and other special analyses. Additional detail on an NIA basis will be published in the February 1975 issue of the Survey of Current Business. The second section, which is being added in this special analysis, shows quarterly estimates of Federal sector receipts and expenditures seasonally adjusted at annual rates (see table A-7), and the third section of the anatysis explains the major differences between the budget and NIA concepts. For a discussion of fiscal policy, see Part 1 of the budget (the Budget Message) and the Economic Report of the President. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Table A-l shows Federal sector NIA receipts, expenditures, and deficits for 1974-76. The Federal sector deficits in 1975 and 1976 are expected to increase significantly due primarily to (a) the f alloff of receipts associated with the slowdown in economic activity; (b) proposed tax changes that will reduce receipts in order to stimulate the economy; (c) automatic increases in spending in response to the higher unemployment rates; and (d) recently enacted increases in spending designed to alleviate the impact of unemployment and to provide additional jobs. Table A-3 shows the impact of the President's tax proposals and associated spending. 7 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Trends in Federal sector receipts.—Table A-l shows receipts divided into four major categories. Table A-1. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS (in billions of dollars) 1974 actual Description 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Change, 1974 to 1976 123.1 45.6 21.6 83.3 122.1 41.0 33.1 91.4 111.1 39.9 54. 7 99.4 -12.0 —5.7 33.1 16.1 273.6 287.6 305.1 31.5 110.3 (75.4) (34.9) 104.2 (101.3) (2.9) 41.5 17.4 121.1 (80.3) (40.8) 131.7 (128.2) (3.5) 47.0 19.8 136.1 (90.9) (45.2) 147.0 (143.0) (4.0) 50.8 23.0 25.8 (15.5) (10.3) 42.8 (41.7) (1.1) 9.3 5.6 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts ._ _ EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense _ Nondefense _ Transfer payments _-_ Domestic ("to persons") _._ Foreign _ Grants-in-aid to State and local governments __ Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises. _ __. Wage disbursements less accruals 4.7 .2 3.7 .4 . 4.1 -.6 -.2 Total expenditures _ 278.3 323.7 361.0 82.7 Surplus or deficit ( - ) -4.7 -36.1 -55.9 -51.2 The largest receipt category—personal tax and nontax receipts—is composed primarily of individual income taxes but also includes estate and gift taxes and some miscellaneous receipts. Increases in income—because of both real growth and inflation—automatically increase these receipts. Since personal income taxes are progressive, these receipts normally grow at a faster rate than personal income. However, tax reductions enacted in the past two decades have offset virtually all the increase in effective tax rates resulting from the progressive tax structure. This is illustrated in the table below, which shows Federal sector receipts at 10-year intervals as a percent of gross national product (GNP). Despite significant income tax reductions over the years, personal taxes were equal to the same percentage of GNP in 1973 as 10 and 20 years earlier. Table A-2. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP Description Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals. Contributions for social insurance Total receipts 1953 1963 1973 8.7 5.5 3.0 2.0 8. 7 4. 1 2. 6 3. 9 8.7 3.4 1.7 5.9 19.3 19.2 19.6 SPECIAL ANALYSES 9 The President's fiscal and energy proposals will significantly alter the composition of Federal sector receipts. The proposals to stimulate the economy will reduce personal and corporate taxes by $17.8 billion in 1975 and 1976 combined. The proposals to reduce energ}^ consumtion will increase indirect business taxes by $31.2 billion in 1976, but this will be offset by decreases in personal and corporate taxes and by increases in Federal spending. Table A-3. IMPACT OF THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL AND ENERGY PROPOSALS IN NIA TERMS (in billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Description JanuaryJune 1975 estimate JulyDecember 1975 estimate JanuaryJune 1976 estimate Fiscal stimulus: Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals —10.2 —3.2 —14.6 —3.3 —1.2 —3.1 Total fiscal stimulus -13.4 -17.9 -4.3 Energy tax increases: Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Energy tax offsets: Receipt reductions: Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Total receipt reductions Expenditure increases: Purchases of goods and services Domestic transfer payments Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Total expenditure increases Recapitulation—total change in: Receipts.. Expenditures Deficit 20. 9 31.9 30. 6 —5. 2 —5. 6 —33.0 —6. 4 — 18. 1 —7. 5 -10.8 -39.4 -25.6 1.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 7.0 7.0 -3.3 1.0 -4.3 -25.4 7.0 -32.4 0.7 7.0 -6.3 This package will result in major permanent increases in indirect business taxes—a significant reversal of the long-term trend. These increases will be largely offset by decreases in personal and corporate profits taxes. An allowance is provided in the budget for additional spending to compensate low-income individuals (who pay no income taxes), Federal agencies, and State and local governments for the impact of higher energy prices on their budgets. Corporate profits tax accruals—the next major category of receipts to be discussed—are quite variable since corporate profits are among the most variable components of national income. The NIA corporate profits taxes generally differ from the corresponding budget category primarily because: (1) The unified budget shows the deposit of earnings by the Federal Reserve System as miscellaneous receipts whereas in the NIA they are treated as taxes on corporate profits; and (2) 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Distribution of Federal Sector Receipts by Category Percent 100 Indirect Business Tax and Nontax Accruals Personal Tax and Nontax Receipts the unified budget records corporate profits taxes when the cash pajnnents are received, while in the NIA they are recorded when the profits are earned (i.e., accrued). In addition, the proposed windfall profits tax is classified as an indirect business tax in the NIA, whereas the budget classifies this as a part of corporate income taxes. Corporate profits and tax liabilities reflected in this budget are affected by the recent switch of many corporations from a first-infirst-out basis for inventory accounting to a last-in-first-out basis. The shift substantially reduces recorded inventory profits during inflationary periods and thus reduces corporate profits tax liabilities. The secular decline in corporate profits tax receipts relative to our GNP and to total receipts shown in the chart above results mainly from three factors: (1) A long-term decline in corporate profits relative to the GNP; (2) changes in the definition of corporate profits for tax purposes (largely increases in permissable depreciation allowances and investment tax credits); and (3) the nearly constant nominal tax rate on taxable corporate profits. The President's proposal will result in a permanent decrease in the corporate profits tax rates. This decrease is designed to stimulate business investment. SPECIAL ANALYSES 11 Indirect business tax and nontax accruals are composed of excise taxes, customs duties, rents and royalties, and a proposed windfall profits tax which is to be levied in the form of a graduated tax on the sale of domestic crude oil. Over time, this category has become a much less important part of total Federal sector income. Partly this is because these taxes normally do not rise in propoition to the increase in the economy and partly because of the reduction or repeal of some of the applicable taxes, such as the automobile and telephone excise taxes. However, the President's proposals will double indirect business taxes as part of the effort to reduce oil imports and energy consumption. Contributions for social insurance constitute the second largest category of Federal sector receipts. The rapid rise in these receipts since World War II has been caused by the growth in the labor force and in wage rates, the expanded coverage of existing social insurance programs, the enactment of new ones, and the higher taxable wage base and contribution rates needed to finance liberalization of benefits. The President's tax program will not directly affect these taxes. Trends in Federal sector expenditures.—Federal sector expenditures are also divided into several major groupings. The primary division is between purchases of goods and services (which are divided into defense and nondefense purchases) and all other transactions. Purchases are that portion of the Nation's output that is bought directly by the Federal Government and is included in the calculation of the GNP. The other expenditure categories consist primarily of payments to individuals and grants to other levels of government. These groups, in turn, can use the income to finance their own purchases of goods and services, savings and—in the case of State and local governments— transfers to individuals. A major shift in the composition of Federal sector expenditures has been underway for years. As the chart on expenditures shows, defense purchases of goods and services have been a declining share of Federal spending ever since the Korean war. There has been a corresponding rise in other components, especially grants-in-aid and domestic transfer payments. While this shift has been underway for two decades, it has accelerated in recent years. In 1973 defense purchases as a percentage of Federal sector expenditures were the lowest they had been since 1940, and the percentage has continued to drop. By 1976 defense purchases will be around 25% of total expenditures; the lowest percentage in the period between World War II and the Vietnam war was in 1950, when they were 30% of the total. In contrast, outlays for domestic transfer payments and grants are expected to be well over half of total Fedeial sector expenditures this year. Just one decade earlier they were less than one-third of the total. 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Distribution of Federal Sector Expenditures by Category 5-Year A :ar Averages Interest and Other Grants-in-Aid Domestic Transfer Payments Non-Defense Purchases Defense Purchases 1947-51 Fiscal Yew 1952-56 Defense purchases of goods and services.—Over 9 5 % of defense purchases are made by the Department of Defense. The remainder includes programs of military assistance to other countries and purchases by the Energy Kesearch and Development Administration (formerly the Atomic Energy Commission). However, the increase in ERDA spending for development of new domestic energy sources is included in nondefense purchases. Purchases and sales of defense stockpiles are included in defense purchases. Defense spending for procurement, research and development, pay, and other purposes has faced the same inflationary pressures that have affected the remainder of the economy. However, despite these cost increases, the large reductions in military personnel, other defense-related employment, and other economies have resulted in the current dollar spending on defense purchases being slightly lower in 1974 than 6 years earlier and resulting in holding defense purchases to around the lowest proportion of the GNP since 1950. While the budget anticipates modernization of defense weapons, the bulk of the increase in defense purchases in 1975 and 1976 reflects the impact of inflation. The budget contains an allowance for possible additional spending for both defense and nondefense purchases that will result from the crude oil excise taxes and import fees. A tentative distribution of this allowance between defense and nondefense purchases was made for NIA purposes. 13 SPECIAL ANALYSES Nondejense purchases of goods and services.—This category covers the goods and services purchased by Federal civilian agencies. These include such programs as operating national forest, park, and recreation areas; space exploration; promotion of commerce; acquisition and disposal of agricultural commodities; construction of flood control and navigation projects; operation of the Federal airway system; a wide variety of medical and other scientific research; the capital outlay of Government-sponsored enterprises; Federal law enforcement; and operation of veterans hospitals. Table A-4. NONDEFENSE PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES BY AGENCY (in billions of dollars) 1973 actual Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation Other Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. _ Department of Housing and Urban Development. Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury: Interest paid abroad Other .--.----: General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration. _ Postal Service l Veterans Administration All other 2 Total, 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate -1.3 1.8 .8 1.7 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.0 .8 .5 2.7 -0.4 2.0 1.0 1.7 4.5 1.9 1.7 1.1 .7 .6 2.7 0.6 2.3 1.1 2.0 5.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 .9 .8 3.1 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.1 5.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 .9 .9 3.2 3.2 1.2 .9 3.2 .4 3.1 3.4 4.1 2.0 1.0 3.2 .7 3.4 3.0 4.1 2.7 .2 3.2 .6 4.1 3.9 4.1 2.9 .1 3.4 .8 4.4 6.9 31.0 34.9 40.8 45.2 1 Not included in budget outlays. 2 Includes allowances for energy tax equalization payments, civilian agency pay raises, and contingencies. Table A-4 shows a distribution by agency of nondefense purchases for 1973 through 1976. In 1976, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare will account for more nondefense purchases that affect GNP than am^ other agency; these are largely for medical research and for administering grant and transfer programs. Purchases by NASA have dropped substantially in recent years: in 1966 they were one-third of nondefense purchases, but by 1976 the}r arc expected to be around 7}<>%. The large-scale fluctuations in nondefense purchases by the Agriculture Department are caused primarily by the purchase and sale of commodity inventories. Nondefense purchases b}r the Department of Defense—Civil and the Department of the Interior are predominantly for water, power, and reclamation programs while the bulk of nondefense purchases by the Veterans Administration is for hospitals and medical care. 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Domestic transfer payments.—This is now the largest category of Federal sector expenditures. Spending for domestic transfers has expanded rapidly, mainly because of more beneficiaries and higher benefit payments under the social insurance programs. Approximately two-thirds of the payments are for retirement and disability, with the old-age and survivors insurance fund constituting around 75% of retirement and disability payments and around half of all domestic transfer payments. Another large group of domestic transfer payments is for medical care under the hospital and supplementary medical insurance programs (Medicare). These transfers did not exist prior to 1967 but by 1976 they are expected to total $14.1 billion. The food stamp program began in 1961 and was relatively small but growing until 1969. By 1972 the program had reached a level of $1.8 billion and in 1976 it will be $3.2 billion. Veterans benefits and insurance have long been a major group of transfer payments. These payments expanded rapidly beginning in 1967, due in part to the war in Vietnam, but also in part to the enactment of the GI bill for post-Korean War veterans. Payments are expected to remain high in 1975 and 1976 because of legislated costof-living and other benefit increases, despite a decline in the number of ex-servicemen studying under the GI bill. The budget proposes a $0.2 billion reduction in readjustment benefits in 1975 and $0.6 billion in 1976. The large increase in unemployment benefits in 1975 is due to the automatic response of benefits to higher levels of unemployment supplemented by major liberalization under legislation enacted in December 1974. Table A-5. DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS (in billions of dollars) Fiscal year 1965 1966_ 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 _. . 1974 1975 estimate . 1976 estimate. Total 28.3 31.8 37.3 42.7 48.5 54.8 67.4 75.7 86.7 101.3 128.2 143.0 Retirement and disability i 20.2 23.8 25.3 28.0 32.2 35.6 42.4 47.9 58.5 69.1 82.6 91.3 Hospital and supplementary medical insurance Food stamps * 3.2 5.1 6.3 6.7 7.4 8.3 9.0 10.9 13.2 14.1 0.1 .1 .2 .2 .6 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.1 Veterans benefits and insurance Unemployment benefits 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.6 6.1 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.4 11.9 11.6 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.0 5.6 6.5 4.8 5.4 13.7 17.2 Other 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.5 25.7 * Less than $50 million. Includes black lung benefits, supplemental security income benefits, and military retired pay. Includes allowances for energy tax equalization payments in 1976 and contingencies in 1975 and 1976. 1 3 Domestic transfer payments and grants-in-aid constitute the great bulk of Federal spending for domestic civilian programs. As the chart below demonstrates, they also account for the bulk of the increase in Federal spending in recent years. 15 SPECIAL ANALYSES Composition of Federal Sector Expenditures SBillic $ Billions 235 225 200- 200 175 — —175 Grants-in-Aid and 150 150 Domestic Transfer Payments 125 - —125 100- -100 Defense Purchases 75- 75 50 — — 50 25- — 25 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Fiscal Years Estimate Grants-in-aid.—These expenditures comprise programs designed to help State and local governments provide general public services or to finance programs for the needy. Table A-6 shows the major types of grants for the years 1965-76, and table A-ll provides additional detail. General purpose fiscal assistance has been provided in relatively small amounts under several programs for many years, but this became a major category with the introduction of general revenue sharing in 1973. Such grants arc generally available for operation of State and local governments, to finance State or local government transfer payments to the public, to retire debt, or to reduce taxes. Most grants included in the income security and health functions are virtually indistinguishable from domestic transfer payments: they finance cash benefits or services for persons under such programs as medicaid. In contrast, most other grants are directed toward State and local government public works— such as highways, mass transit facilities, urban renewal, and pollution control facilities—or else support the operation of State and local public services—such as education, manpower training, social services, and law enforcement. 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table A-6. FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (in billions of dollars) Fiscal year 1965. 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1 3 Total Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.8 19.2 22.6 26.8 32.6 40.2 41.5 47.0 50.8 0.2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .4 7.0 6.5 6.6 8.7 Income security Health 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.9 6.6 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 6.9 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.5 6.0 6.2 7.6 8.8 9.3 Education, manpower, and social services 1.4 2.4 3.7 4.5 4.5 5.2 6.1 8.2 8.4 8.1 10.3 9.8 Transportation l Community and regional development 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5A 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 0.6 .7 .8 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.0 Othe 0.8 .9 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.2 2.7 4.1 25.6 25.7 Includes a small amount of grants for "commerce." Includes allowances for energy tax equalization payments and contingencies. Special Analysis O (Federal Aid to State and Local Governments) discusses grant-in-aid programs in more detail and explains the major differences between grants as defined in the three principal Federal statistical series on grants. Other Federal sector expenditures.—Four other categories complete the list of Federal sector expenditures. The largest category—net interest paid—is affected by changes in Federal debt outstanding and in interest rates. Net interest has varied between 6% and 8% of Federal sector expenditures and l%% to 1%% for GNP for most years since 1952. There are three major types of foreign transfer payments: Expenditure of dollars to assist foreign economic development, grants to foreign governments of foreign currencies that are earned from the sale of surplus agricultural products, and payments under social security and similar programs to individuals living abroad. Although payments to individuals are gradually rising (roughly in proportion with the rise in GNP), total foreign transfer payments have been stable (and a declining proportion of GNP) for many years. Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises consist of two elements: (a) Subsidy payments to resident businesses (including farms); and (b) the "current surplus" or "deficit" of Government enterprises. A subsidy is a monetary grant to a unit engaged in commercial activities. Examples are payments to farmers for land retirement, payments to air carriers, and the operating differential subsidy paid to operators of U.S. flag merchant ships. Government enterprise is the term applied to certain business-type operations of the Government (usually appearing in the budget as public enterprise revolving funds). The operating costs of Government enterprises are, to a great extent, covered by the sale of goods and services to the public, as distinguished from tax receipts. The difference between the sales and the current operating expenses of a Government enterprise constitutes its surplus or deficit. The largest SPECIAL ANALYSES 17 of these enterprises are the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Postal Service (which is no longer included in the budget), and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Wage disbursements less accruals is an adjustment item occasionally made in the NIA to take account of the fact that wages and salaries are not always received at the same time as they are earned. The national income component of GNP is counted on an accrual basis; that is, when the income is earned, rather than when it is received. Personal income, however, including wage and salary disbursements, is regularly estimated on the basis of when the cash is received. Ordinarily, wage and salary payments disbursed in one period but earned in the preceding period are approximately offset by payments disbursed in the next period but earned in the current period, thus making the adjustment between national income and personal income small or zero. A retroactive pay increase for Federal employees caused this category to be significant in fiscal years 1973, 1974, and 1975. QUARTERLY ESTIMATES In the past the Federal budget has provided estimates of receipts and outlays only for fiscal years. Quarterly data have been developed for internal use but have not been published because of the recognized imprecision of the estimates. However, reforms under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 suggest a congressional need for more detailed budgetary data, and other users have expressed a similar need. In response to the expressed congressional and public needs—and despite the inherent limitations of the data—quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures estimates for the period covered by the budget arc being added this year. The translation of the budget into national income accounts categories is necessarily inexact. The budget itself is a mixture of a forecast of what receipts and outlays are expected to be for some items under current law and a Presidential request for congressional approval of proposed amounts for others. For this special analysis each budget receipt and outlay is analyzed and translated into NIA categories. Imprecision and possible error are inevitable even when the translation is made using annual data. When these annual estimates are converted into quarterly distributions seasonally adjusted at annual rates, the imprecision is further increased. The data presented in table A-7 are the best available estimates of the quarterly NIA receipts and expenditures consistent with the 1976 budget, but should be used with clear recognition of their limitations. 580-700 O - 75 - 2 Table A-7. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS, QUARTERLY, 1974-76, AND J U L Y - S E P T E M B E R 1976 l (in billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Actual Description JulySept 1973 OctDec 1973 JanMar 1974 Estimated AprJune 1974 JulySept 1974 OctDec 1974 2 JanMar 1975 AprJune 1975 JulySept 1975 OctDec 1975 JanMar 1976 AprJune 1976 JulySept 1976 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts 116.7 43.8 21.0 80.2 121.6 43.5 21.3 81.8 124.1 45.9 21.5 86.7 129.4 49.2 21.9 88.1 134.8 55.4 22.5 90.0 136.6 46.0 22.2 90.0 130.8 31.9 31.1 92.8 101.1 30.5 56.4 94.2 74.0 35.2 55.3 95.8 107.9 40.2 54.8 98.9 127.3 41.3 54.5 102.4 133.0 140.2 42.7 43.1 54.3 54.2 104.9 107.3 261.8 268.3 278.1 288.6 302.8 294.7 286.6 282.2 260.3 301.8 325.5 334.9 344.8 108.4 (75.3) (33.1) 98.8 (96.3) (2.5) 41.0 17.6 111.5 (75.8) (35.7) 106.5 (104.0) (2.5) 42.9 17.9 114.3 (76.6) (37.7) 113.6 (110.8) (2.7) 43.2 18.7 117.2 (78.4) (38.7) 120.8 (118.4) (2.4) 43.4 19.1 122.8 (83.5) (39.3) 127.1 (124.3) (2.7) 45.5 19.7 122.9 (81.0) (41.9) 137.0 (132.6) (4.4) 47.7 20.1 121.8 (78.5) (43.3) 142.3 (137.8) (4.5) 51.4 20.4 127.3 (83.1) (44.2) 147.5 (143.4) (4.1) 49.5 21.5 132.9 (87.9) (45.0) 147.8 (143.8) (4.0) 50.7 22.5 138.9 (93.3) (45.6) 146.8 (142.8) (4.0) 51.0 23.5 145.2 (99.3) (45.9) 146.6 (142.7) (3.9) 52.0 24.5 151.7^ (105. V (46.4) 154.1 (150.4) (3.7) 53.2 25.5 EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services 105.3 Defense (73.3) Nondefense (32.0) Transfer payments 96.5 Domestic ("to persons") (93.9) Foreign (2.7) Grants-in-aid to State and local governments 39.8 Net interest paid 16.8 Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises 5.0 Wage disbursements less accruals _ Total expenditures Surplus or deficit ( - ) 4.8 2.2 1.3 .6 2.7 1.5 2.3 3.9 __ . . 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 263.4 270.6 281.0 291.6 304.7 317.3 331.6 340.0 349.9 358.0 364.3 372.4 388.7 -1.7 -2.3 -2.8 -3.0 - 1 . 9 -22.6 -45.0 -57.8 -89.6 -56.2 -38.8 -37.5 -43.9 1 Part 7 of the 1976 budget provide* unified budget data for the period July through September 1976. This is the transition period (1 quarter) between fiscal year 1976. which covers the fiscal period July 1975 through June 1976, and fiscal year 1977, which—in accordance with the Congressional Budget Act of 1974—will cover the period October 1976 through September 1977. The final column of this table shows the NIA estimates for this fiscal period. 2 Preliminary. KT r i i J u J• n J- • N o t e : r> Because of the methods normally used in seasonally adjusting t h, e average of the four quarters of a fiscal year seasonally adjusted data ec ual t o t h e * unadjusted fiscal year total, KIT A J NIA data, may not be SPECIAL ANALYSES RELATIONSHIP OF 19 THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SECTOR OF THE Table A-8 shows the major differences between the budget and the Federal sector of the NIA. These differences are explained below. Table A-8. RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR, NIA (in billions of dollars) Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 278.8 297.5 4.3 1.9 3.1 -.6 5.0 2.1 2.6 -.8 5.4 2.2 1.1 -1.1 273.6 287.6 305.1 268.4 313.4 349.4 —2.9 4. 3 1.9 .4 6.0 .2 —1.2 5.0 2.1 —.3 4.2 .5 —4.2 5. 4 2.2 .3 6.9 1.0 278.3 323.7 361.0 RECEIPTS Total budget receipts 264.9 Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing) __ Other netting and grossing Adjustment to accruals Other Federal sector, NIA receipts EXPENDITURES Total budget outlays Lending and financial transactions Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing) ___ Other netting and grossing Defense timing adjustment Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases Other Federal sector, NIA expenditures Lending and financial transactions.—Conceptually, the national income accounts measure the Nation's current income and production, and therefore do not include transactions—such as loans—that are an exchange of assets and liabilities rather than current income or production. Loan transactions have a significant economic impact, affecting income and output, but they are analyzed more appropriately within a different accounting framework. Special Analysis C (Borrowing, Debt, and Investment) and Special Analysis E (Federal Credit Programs) both contain information on the financial market implications of the budget. Most of the lending and financial transactions shown in table A-8 are shown in Special Analysis E. However, this total differs from the total for direct loans shown in Special Analysis E because: (a) The NIA records nonrecourse agricultural commodity loans as purchases rather than loans; (b) capital contributions to international financial institutions, while not technically loans, are excluded from the NIA and treated as financial transactions; and (c) Special Analysis E also shows credit transactions of Government-sponsored enterprises that are not included in the budget or the NIA and therefore do not require reconciliation. Government contribution for employee retirement.—The contributions of Government agencies to the retirement trust funds of their employees are not included in the budget totals. While the outlays are 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 recorded in each agency's budget, they are offset by an intragovernmental deduction. However, the NIA counts Government payments for employee retirement as part of the compensation paid to Government employees and, therefore, as Government expenditures; this treatment maintains comparability with the treatment of employee retirement contributions in the rest of the economy. This category includes contributions by the Postal Service even though the Postal Service is not included in the unified budget. Since the NIA includes the Postal Service as a Government-sponsored enterprise, its contributions affect the current deficit of the enterprise rather than constituting nondefense purchases. In the NIA, the receipt of these retirement contributions is treated as contributions for social insurance. Since receipts and expenditures are increased by equal amounts, this treatment has no effect on the surplus or deficit. Over 75% of these payments go to the civil service retirement fund, while most of the remainder is for Federal employees insured under social security. Other netting and grossing.—The budget normally counts as receipts only income from taxation or similar sources that arises from the exercise of governmental power to compel payment. Money received in the course of business-type transactions, therefore, is normally shown as offsets against expenditures. For instance, receipts from two major insurance programs operated by the Veterans Administration (National Service Life Insurance and U.S. Government Life Insurance) are netted against expenditures in the budget since these programs are voluntary, commercial-type activities. However, in the NIA these insurance premiums are treated as receipts in the same way as receipts from compulsory Government insurance programs. Adjustments of this type affect total receipts and expenditures equally and thus do not alter the surplus or deficit of either the budget or the Federal sector. Timing adjustments.—The budget records receipts at the time the cash is collected regardless of when the income is earned, while outlays (except interest) are generally recorded at the time the checks are issued. The NIA attempts to record most receipts from the business sector in the time period in which the income is earned rather than when taxes are actually paid, while personal income taxes and social insurance contributions are recorded at the time of payment by the individual taxpayer. The principal timing adjustment to expenditures is for defense purchases. Procurement items (such as missiles or airplanes) purchased under most fixed price contracts are recorded in the Federal sector NIA as defense purchases at the time of delivery to the Federal Government rather than when they are fabricated or when they are paid for; work in progress is counted as part of private business inventories until the articles are completed and delivered to the Government. In both the budget and the NIA accounts, public debt interest is recorded when it accrues. Bonuses on Outer Continental Shelf land leases.—In recent years bonuses paid on the Outer Continental Shelf oil leases have become a significant reconciliation item between the unified budget and the NIA. The budget records these bonuses as proprietary receipts and, SPECIAL ANALYSES 21 therefore, deducts them from budget outlays. The NIA excludes these transactions as being a transfer of assets because the pa}^ments are not included in calculating book profits under current corporate accounting practice. Other.—This category includes some miscellaneous adjustments, largely for certain specialized aspects of the national income accounts, such as the purchase and sale of land and geographical exclusions arising out of transactions with Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. territories. Certain nondefense timing adjustments are included here because of the difficulty in separating them from other adjustment categories. This category includes adjustments for certain foreign currency transactions that are not included in the budget and transactions of Federal agencies or activities that are excluded from the budget but included in the Federal sector NIA. Table A-9. FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS, 1965-76 (in billions of dollars) Actual Description 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Estimate 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance __ __ Total receipts 51.3 27.7 16.9 24.6 57.6 31.0 15.7 28.5 64.5 31.2 15.8 35.7 120.5 132.8 147.2 64.4 (48.9) (15.5) 30.5 (28.3) (2.2) 10.9 8.5 71.7 (54.4) (17.3) 34.2 (31.8) (2.3) 12.7 9.0 4.1 71.4 33.7 17.1 38.3 49.1 87.5 32.3 20.1 52.6 100.7 34.1 20.0 58.5 106.8 41.2 20.7 71.7 123.1 45.6 21.6 83.3 122.1 41.0 33.1 91.4 111.1 39.9 54.7 99.4 190.4 195.2 192.5 213.2 240.4 273.6 287.6 305.1 94.9 (75.9) (18.9) 44.8 (42.7) (2.1) 17.8 10.9 99.4 (78.0) (21.4) 50.7 (48.5) (2.2) 19.2 12.3 98.0 (77.0) (21.0) 56.8 (54.8) (2.0) 22.6 14.0 95.8 (73.1) (22.7) 69.7 (67.4) (2.3) 26.8 14.3 103.2 (73.6) (29.5) 78.6 (75.7) (2.8) 32.6 13.4 105.3 110.3 (74.2) (75.4) (31.0) (34.9) 89.4 104.2 (86.7) (101.3) (2.9) (2.7) 40.2 41.5 17.4 14.5 121.1 (80.3) (40.8) 131.7 (128.2) (3.5) 47.0 19.8 136.1 (90.9) (45.2) 147.0 (143.0) (4.0) 50.8 23.0 5.1 4.1 4.1 4.7 -.1 5.7 .1 5.3 6.7 -.5 4.7 .2 3.7 .4 4.1 131.9 154.5 172.5 185.7 195.9 212.4 232.9 255.4 278.3 323.7 361.0 +.9 -7.3 -11.9 +4.7 -.7 -19.8 -19.7 -15.0 -4.7 -36.1 -55.9 90.0 37.4 18.6 44.4 160.6 85. 3 (67.7) (17.6) 39.4 (37.2) (2.2) 14.8 9.9 4.5 118.5 +2.0 93.6 33.3 19.2 EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services. Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") ._ Foreign _ ..._ Grants-in-aid to State and local governments_ _ Net interest paid.._ Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage disbursements less accruals Total expenditures Surplus (+) or deficit ( - ) .._. Table A-10. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC T R A N S F E R PAYMENTS (in billions of dollars) Actual 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Estimate 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Social security (OASDI).. Railroad retirement.. Civil service retirement Unemployment benefits Benefits for coal miners Supplemental security income. _ Food stamps Other _... 16.4 1.1 1.4 2.5 19.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 20.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 22.5 1.4 2.1 2.2 25.8 1.5 2.4 2.2 _. 28.7 1.6 2.7 3.0 * 34.0 1.9 3.2 5.6 .3 38.0 2.1 3.7 6.5 .4 46.6 2.4 4.5 4.8 .9 * 1 .1 .1 .1 * .2 .1 .2 .1 .6 .1 1.5 .1 1.8 .2 Total 21.5 24.6 25.9 28.6 32.3 36.7 46.6 Health: Medicare Other .3 .3 3.2 .3 5.1 .3 6.3 .3 6.7 .4 Total 3 .3 3.5 5.4 6.6 1 1 .2 .2 .4 .1 .7 .1 .2 .4 .5 4.7 4.8 26.7 30.0 Education, manpower, and social services: Education Manpower* Total Veterans benefits and services Total human resources programs See footnotes at end of table. 2.1 .2 53.2 2.6 5.6 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.7 .2 61.4 3.0 7.0 13.8 .9 4.2 3.4 .2 67.7 3.3 7.8 17.3 .9 4.9 3.2 .2 52.7 61.5 72.7 93.9 105.4 7.4 .4 8.3 .4 9.0 .5 10.9 .4 13.1 .5 14.1 .4 7.1 7.9 8.8 9.4 11.3 13.6 14.5 .7 .1 .9 .2 .9 .4 .9 .6 1.0 .5 1.0 .6 1.7 .8 1.9 .8 .8 .8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 2.4 2.7 5.3 5.4 6.1 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.7 10.4 11.9 11.6 35.2 40.4 45.9 51.7 63.8 71.7 82.2 96.0 121.8 134.2 to TABLE A-10. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS (in billions of dollars)—Continued Actual 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 Estimate 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 ALL OTHER FUNCTIONS O National defense (military retired pay) All other functions (includes allowance for energy tax equalization payments and contingencies) Total functions not included in human resources grouping Total domestic transfer payments.. 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.3 ^ 4 .4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .7 2.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.3 6.4 8.8 28.3 31.8 37.2 42.7 48.5 54.8 67.4 75.7 86.7 101.3 128.2 143.0 •Less than $50 million. Includes a relatively small amount classified as social services. 1 1.6 Table A-11. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (in billions of dollars) Actual escnp ion ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ g 1970 1971 1972 1973 Estimate 1975 1976 1974 HUMAN RESOURCES PROGRAMS Income security: Public assistance cash benefits. _ _ Child nutrition and related programs Administration of unemployment benefits. _. Other Total Health: Medicaid Other (includes research, construction, services, and medical training)_. Total Education, manpower, and social services: Education Manpower Social services Total Veterans benefi ts and services Total human resources programs See footnote at end of table. 2.8 .2 .2 2.8 .2 .2 2.7 .2 .2 3.2 .2 .2 .1 3.6 .3 .3 .1 4.1 .4 .3 .1 5.5 .6 .4 .1 6.6 .9 .4 .1 5.9 1.1 .5 .1 5.4 1.2 .4 .1 4.7 1.6 .5 .1 4.6 1.6 .4 .1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.7 4.2 4.9 6.6 7.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 6.9 .3 .8 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.4 4.6 4.6 5.8 6.6 7.1 .4 .5 .7 .9 .8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.2 .7 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.5 6.0 6.2 7.6 8.8 9.3 1.0 .2 .2 1.9 .3 .3 2.8 .3 .6 3.3 .5 .7 3.2 .5 .9 3.6 .5 1.1 3.9 .8 1.4 4.1 1.6 2.6 4.1 1.9 2.3 3.9 2.0 2.2 4.3 3.2 2.8 4.2 3.2 2.4 1.4 2.4 3.7 4.5 4.5 5.2 6.1 8.2 8.4 8.1 10.3 9.8 * * * * * * * * * * * .1 5.3 6.9 8.8 10.9 11.9 14.0 17.2 22.2 22.2 22.8 26.0 26.0 Table A-11. FUNCTIONAL COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (in billions of dollars) —Continued Actual Description 1968 1969 Estimate 1972 1973 1974 1976 1965 1966 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2 .2 .5 .2 .5 .3 .7 .3 1.6 .5 2.4 .6 2.5 .6 .1 .2 .2 .3 .4 .4 .8 .8 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.1 .3 * .3 .1 .3 * .1 .3 .4 .1 .1 .3 .5 .1 .2 .4 .5 .2 .3 .3 1.0 .3 .3 .5 1.0 .5 .4 .4 1.2 .7 .4 .4 1.0 .9 .5 .5 1.2 .8 .5 .4 1.2 .9 .6 .5 1.2 1.8 .6 .6 .7 .8 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.0 4 0 3o 40 4? .1 .1 44 .1 .1 46 .2 .1 .3 .1 .4 .2 .5 .2 .9 .3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.8 1967 1970 1971 1975 ALL OTHER FUNCTIONS Natural resources, environment, and energy: Environment _ __ Other Total Community and regional development: Urban renewal _ _ Other HUD grants Area and regional development Other . Total __ Commerce and transportation: Urban mass transit Other (mainly airport construction) Total. .1 .1 .1 4? * .1 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 48 1.2 6.4 General science, space, and technology (mainly research grants) Law enforcement and justice.. Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Other (includes allowance for energy tax equalization payments) -5 T -- .5 * .5 * - .6 * - .6 * .7 * .6 .2 .6 .3 - .6 .5 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .8 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.3 .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .4 .4 .4 .4 2.4 2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .3 .3 .4 7.0 6.5 6.6 8.7 All other functions (includes allowance for contingencies) .2 .2 ,3 .3 .3 .4 .4 .4 .5 .5 1.1 1.1 Total, functions not included in human resources grouping ._ _. 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.9 7.3 8.6 9.6 10.4 18.0 18.7 21.0 24.8 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.8 19.2 22.6 26.8 32.6 40.2 41.5 47.0 50.8 Total Total grants-in-aid * Less than $50 million. SPECIAL ANALYSIS B FUNDS IN THE BUDGET This analysis classifies budget information by the groups of funds that comprise the budget. It also presents information on the nature of receipts for the largest trust funds. DISTRIBUTION OF TOTALS, BY FUND GROUPS Table B-l shows the distribution of total budget receipts and outlays between the Federal funds and the trust funds. The two groups together, after deducting for transactions that flow between them, make up the budget totals. Table B-l. BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS, BY FUND GROUP (in millions of dollars) Description 1974 1975 1976 RECEIPTS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Receipts, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Receipts, trust funds Interfund transactions Total budget receipts 192,855 -1,152 -10,278 -205 196,975 -1,318 -9,307 -383 213,039 -1,256 -12,019 —486 181,219 185,966 199,278 110,395 —952 -3,954 —642 125,499 -999 -4,708 —1,110 133,866 -1,052 - 5 . 525 —779 104,846 118,681 126,510 -21,133 -25,897 -28,268 264,932 278,750 297,520 OUTLAYS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Outlays, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Outlays, trust funds Interfund transactions.... 210,328 —1,152 —10,278 —205 240,014 267,976 —1,318 —1,256 -9,307 —12,019 —383 —486 198,692 229,005 254,215 96.382 -952 -3,954 -642 117,155 -999 -4,708 -1,110 130,781 -1,052 -5,525 -779 90,833 110,338 123,425 -21,133 -25,897 -28,268 Total budget outlays 268,392 313,446 349,372 Budget deficit -3,460 -34,696 -51,852 28 SPECIAL ANALYSES 29 FEDERAL FUNDS The Federal funds are derived mainly from taxes and borrowing. Most of these funds are not restricted by law to any specific governmental purpose. There are four subgroups of Federal funds—the general fund, special funds, public enterprise funds, and intragovernmental revolving and management funds. Table B-2. FEDERAL FUND RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate RECEIPTS BY SOURCE Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs duties Miscellaneous receipts Total receipts Federal funds 118,952 38,620 9,743 5,035 3,334 5,535 117,700 38,500 13,168 4,800 3,910 7,888 106,300 47,700 25,166 4,600 4,300 11,212 181,219 185,966 199,278 OUTLAYS BY AGENCY Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President _ _ Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance _ Other _ Agriculture Commerce Defense—Military 1 Defense—Civil ._ Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State _. _ __. Transportation. _ Treasury __. Energy Research and Development Administration Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies Undistributed offsetting receipts: Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf Allowances 2 _ Total outlays Federal funds Excess of outlays ( - ) _ _._ ____ _ __ 623 204 66 741 307 109 879 341 76 3,367 456 9,772 1,462 77,643 1,670 30,476 4,786 1.736 1,797 2,857 732 2,985 36,096 2,308 2,030 —275 3,253 13,151 8,245 4,267 619 8,763 1,646 83,464 1,911 35,866 5,517 2,203 2,061 7,861 859 3,871 39,840 3,090 2,937 —1,008 3, 205 15,191 9,984 4,804 1,606 9,650 1,799 90,776 1,990 37,344 7,055 2,452 2,221 8,613 932 3,867 43,656 3,815 3,080 —475 3,496 15,329 10,859 -6,748 -5,000 700 -8,000 8,050 198,692 229,005 254,215 -17,473 -43,039 -54,937 1 Includes allowances for civilian and military pay raises for Department of Defense. * Includes allowances for energy tax equalization payments, civilian agency pay raises, and contingencies. Receipts and outlays.—The receipts of the general and special funds in 1976 are estimated at $199.3 billion. Outlays of all the Federal funds are estimated at $254.2 billion. The distribution of receipts by source, and outlays by agency, is shown in table B-2. The proprietary 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 receipts of the general fund and special funds, the Federal intrafund receipts and the receipts of the public enterprise and intragovernmental funds, have all been offset in arriving at the outlays for each agency. Obligations.—The obligations (net) for Federal funds are estimated at $296.7 billion for 1976, as set forth in table B-3. These transactions largely flow from the budget authority of $387.8 billion for the year, although in part the obligations were authorized by prior years' budget authority. Table B-3. OBLIGATIONS INCURRED, NET, IN FEDERAL FUNDS (in millions of dollars) Department or other unit Legislative branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Other Agriculture Commerce Defense-Military * Defense-Civil Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Energy Research and Development Administration Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Civil Service Commission Federal Home Loan Bank Board Postal Service Railroad Retirement Board Other independent agencies Undistributed offsetting receipts: Rents and royalties on the Outer Continental Shelf Allowances2 Total 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 622 205 72 768 304 76 871 345 68 3,110 1,468 1,157 9,050 1,540 79,331 1,941 32,619 4,070 1,839 1,866 2,814 724 3, 191 36,158 2,618 3, 185 -319 3,073 13,467 2,628 -344 1,698 22 4,306 1,458 2,585 731 9,029 1,685 91,428 1,786 36,737 33,634 2,411 2,179 8,463 878 4,561 39,867 3,901 5, 008 -1,054 3,571 15,296 3,805 -302 1,831 4 4,200 1,674 1,367 8,503 9,454 1,766 101,118 2,058 36,727 30,935 2,570 2,133 7,673 962 4,738 43,722 4,219 5,965 -401 3,629 15,592 4,540 -302 1,490 305 4,640 -6,748 -5,000 750 —8.000 8,325 205,365 270,589 296,684 1 2 Includes allowances for civilian and military pay raises for Department of Defense. Includes allowances for energy tax equalization payments, civilian agency pay raises, and contingencies. Balances of prior authority.—Table B-4 shows the balances of budget authority carried forward in Federal funds at the end of each fiscal year. To the extent that valid Government obligations have been incurred and remain unpaid, amounts sufficient to pay them may be carried over into the next year. Unobligated balances may be carried forward in accordance with specific provisions of law, usually in order SPECIAL ANALYSES 31 to permit completion of projects as contemplated at the time the appropriations were first made, but also to provide funding for activities of a continuing nature (such as business-type enterprises) or for standby emergency purposes (such as backup for insurance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). Table B-4. FEDERAL FUND BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY lin muucms oi a<)iiars) Department or other unit Start 1974 Obligated Unobligated E n d 1974 Obligated Unobligated E n d 1975 Obligated Legislative branch 71 186 68 203 95 The Judiciary 19 * 22 * 19 Executive Office of the President 42 2 47 * 15 Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance 1.991 11 3,395 5 2,932 International development assistance 4,520 8,871 4,506 10,644 5,066 Other 1,442 80 1,871 244 1,448 Agriculture 5,185 3,106 4,467 6,974 4,723 Commerce 1,659 351 1,759 310 1,799 Defense-Military1 26,933 12,643 28,566 15,093 36,558 Defense—Civil. __ 527 380 798 203 672 Health, Education, and Welfare 12,227 1,698 13,893 1,702 14,752 Housing and Urban Development 85,222 32,449 84,508 36,791 112,628 Interior 1,173 648 1,278 639 1,486 Justice 1,150 103 1,216 154 1,334 Labor 1,696 485 1,585 756 2,178 State 126 40 114 74 126 Transportation 1,959 1,724 2,160 4,092 2,851 Treasury 209 41 271 55 298 Energy Research and Development Administration 1,143 501 1,452 358 2,263 Environmental Protection 4,355 5,467 5,510 8,134 7,582 Agency General Services Administration 423 378 380 10 334 National Aeronautics and Space Administration. __ 1,090 516 916 479 1,282 Veterans Administration... 1,101 1,898 1,429 1,940 1,534 Civil Service Commission. _ 18 5 10 6 11 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 3,000 3,000 Federal Home Loan Bank Board -27 7,854 * 8,196 4 Postal Service 1,940 9,498 Other independent agencies 3,177 4,651 3,214 3,410 2,763 Allowances 2 50 Total 1 E n d 1976 Unobligated 162 * Obli- Unobligated gated 86 23 104 6 2,365 10,083 4,404 251 7,551 11,582 4,527 283 1,766 10,194 46,913 162 740 696 10,161 241 13,870 299 11,253 45 14,135 920 45,092 136,508 1,919 1,603 74 1,245 4,398 1,238 31 156 11,583 3,721 36 363 18,777 1,567 53 201 5 9,739 30 36 7,341 2,667 10,466 36 2,119 130 409 122 137 2,097 5 1,415 1,797 11 46 2,114 4 3,000 3,000 10,478 20 8,781 2,941 2,562 325 7,264 159,371 96,587 163,435 103,476 204,802 122,712 247,023 90,752 Includes balances of allowances for civilian and military pay raises for Department of Defense. Includes balances of allowances for civilian agency pay raises and contingencies. * Less than $500 thousand. 2 32 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUNDS The public enterprise funds are a subgroup of Federal funds. They carry on a cycle of business-type operations, primarily with the public, on behalf of the Government. Some are incorporated enterprises; others are unincorporated. The general fund usually supplies them with capital, although in a few cases they may borrow from the public. Data on public enterprise funds are included on a net outlay basis in tables B-2 through B-4. Gross amounts are shown in table B-5. Table B-5. PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUND TRANSACTIONS (in millions of dollars) Applicable receipts Description 1974 actual Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance 326 Other 195 AgricultureCommodity Credit Corporation *. _ _ _ 4,379 Farmers Home Administration 3,729 Federal Crop Insurance Corporation, 48 Commerce 60 Defense: Military 65 Civil (Panama Canal Company) 216 Health, Education, and Welfare 80 Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association 2,303 Urban renewal fund 946 Low-rent public housing fund 609 Federal Housing Administration 1,203 Other 81 Interior 55 Transportation 30 Treasury 1 Environmental Protection Agency 1 General Services Administration 3 Veterans Administration 788 Other independent agencies: Emergency Loan Guarantee Board.. _ 5 Farm Credit Administration 6 Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation 382 Revolving fund 32 National Credit Union Administration 25 Small Business Administration 447 Tennessee Valley Authority 937 Total Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts 16,953 1975 estimate 777 Gross outlays 1976 estimate 607 3,193 4,019 7,629 5,661 55 56 70 76 1974 actual 572 40 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5,570 5,257 34 20 723 2 4,524 5,916 75 33 556 2 4,317 5,992 61 33 6 262 149 6 281 162 46 216 202 54 264 321 8 281 409 5,648 871 682 1, 395 92 302 43 2 * 3 1,180 7,221 570 658 1,550 96 397 42 2 * 3 997 6 7 7 7 2,250 2,072 621 2,066 130 129 446 * 1 2 721 * 6 5,805 2,121 682 2,187 219 364 844 1 1 2 950 1 7 7,507 1,820 658 2,280 450 450 1.121 1 1 2 940 * 7 411 2,535 440 37 5 36 112 2,525 120 37 29 568 1,287 34 601 1,756 13 1,179 1,338 20 941 2,087 18 912 2,487 27,200 25,286 22,971 30,799 30,468 (15,123) (24,631) (21,970) (1,829) (2,569) (3,316) 1 Receipts include advances from foreign assistance and special export programs of $554 million in 1974. $778 million in 1975, and $1,336 million in 1976. '"Less than $500 thousand. SPECIAL ANALYSES 33 Receipts and outlays.—Receipts of public enterprise funds are estimated at $25.3 billion in 1976, and gross outlays are planned to total $30.5 billion, resulting in net outlays of $5.2 billion. TRUST FUNDS The trust funds are collected and used for specific purposes; in this sense, they are administered in a fiduciary capacity by the Government. They include trust revolving funds, which, like the public enterprise funds, carry on a businesslike cycle of operations and are normally stated on a net basis (outlays less receipts). Cash operations.—Trust fund receipts are estimated at $126.5 billion in 1976, with outlays planned at $123.4 billion, as shown in table B-6. The transactions of the Federal old-age and survivors and disability insurance funds are far larger than any other trust fund. Table B-6. OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS OF TRUST FUNDS (in millions of dollars) Outlays Description Federal old-age and survivors and disability insurance trust funds Health insurance trust funds State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund Unemployment trust fund Railroad employees retirement funds.. Federal employees retirement funds. __ Airport and airway trust funds Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public... Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Total 1974 actual 55,867 11,348 6,106 6,149 2,675 5,709 521 4,599 2,675 701 531 -499 Receipts 1975 1976 estimate estimate 64,491 13,903 71,108 14,990 6,176 6,301 13,000 15,900 3,026 3,267 7,260 8,039 626 1,126 4,670 5,002 3,613 4,869 761 772 472 497 - 8 4 2 -1,091 96.382 117,155 130,781 -952 - 9 9 9 -1.052 -3.954 -4,708 -5,525 - 6 4 2 -1,110 90,833 110,338 -779 123,425 1974 actual 57,703 15,419 1975 1976 estimate estimate 66,093 16,777 70,188 18,573 6,205 9,782 2,810 11,143 1,034 6,416 3,892 870 478 6,355 9,760 3,232 11,908 1,134 6,664 4,669 912 470 6,055 7.483 2,619 9,032 868 6.675 3,167 847 526 110,395 125,499 133,866 -952 - 9 9 9 -1.052 -3,954 -4,708 -5,525 - 6 4 2 -1,110 104,846 118,681 -779 126,510 In fiscal years 1974-1976, this group of funds has excesses of receipts of the following amounts (in millions of dollars): Total receipts, trust funds Total outlays, trust funds Excess of receipts, trust funds 1974 actual 104,846 90,833 1975 estimate 118,681 110,338 1976 estimate 126,510 123,425 14.013 8,343 3,085 Receipts by funds.—Table B-7 presents information classifying the trust fund receipts by major fund, and by source for each such fund. 580-700 O - 75 - 3 34 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table B-7. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description 1974 actual Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities . Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation 65,855 2,728 973 515 117 57.703 66.093 70.188 12,260 483 147 2,529 - 13,035 712 166 2,855 9 13,888 874 176 3,615 20 15,419 16,777 18,573 _ 6,055 6,205 6,355 __ - 6,828 650 5 7,654 727 1 1,400 7,989 470 1 1,300 7.483 9,782 9,760 1,411 257 931 20 1,546 285 980 —1 1,642 301 1,045 244 2,619 2,810 3,232 2,346 1,842 2,512 2,134 2,686 2,388 4,188 642 15 4,985 1,110 22 6,145 793 7 —110 __ Subtotal Health insurance trust funds State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Deposits for General Revenue Sharing. _ Unemployment trust fund: Social insurance taxes and contributions.__ Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Supplemental now requested. _ Subtotal Unemployment trust fund Railroad employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Receipts from other trust funds _ Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) _.._ Subtotal Railroad employees retirement funds Federal employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities ........ Federal payment as employer for employee retirement (including payment on prior year liabilities): Agencies included in budget Agencies excluded from budget Other receipts Proposed legislation _ Supplemental now requested Subtotal Federal employees retirement funds Airport and airway trust fund: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities Proposed legislation 381 9,032 11,143 11.908 840 28 940 94 990 126 17 868 1,034 1.134 _ Subtotal Airport and airway trust fund 1976 estimate 53,925 61,877 2,518 2,806 764 916 496 494 ___ _ _. Subtotal Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Health insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities _ Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation 1975 estimate SPECIAL ANALYSES 35 Table B-7. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars)—Continued (Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Highway trust funds: Excise taxes Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds: Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal Veterans life insurance trust funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies Total receipts 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 6,260 415 * 5,839 577 5,972 692 6,675 6,416 6,664 3,167 3,892 4,669 369 399 419 478 471 493 847 870 912 526 478 470 110,395 -952 -3,954 -642 104,846 125,499 -999 -4,708 -1,110 118,681 133,866 -1,052 -5,525 -779 126,510 •Less than $500 thousand. Outlays by funds.—Corresponding information on outlays, classifying the data for the larger funds, is found in table B-8. Table B-8. T R U S T F U N D O U T L A Y S (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insuiance trust funds: Benefit payments Payments to other trust funds Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal Fedeial old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trustfunds __ Health insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Administrative expenses and other... Proposed legislation Subtotal Health insurance trust funds State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund: Payments for General Revenue Sharing 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 54,007 931 929 62.354 980 1,217 -60 71,947 1,045 1,310 -3,194 55,867 64,491 71,108 10,680 668 13.452 706 -255 15,525 844 -1.379 11.348 13,903 14.990 6,106 6.176 6.301 36 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table B-8. TRUST FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of doIIars)-Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately]—Continued Description Unemployment trust fund: Withdrawals for benefit payments Repayment of advances to the general fund Administrative expenses and other Supplemental now requested Subtotal Unemployment trust fund Railroad employees retirement funds: Benefit payments and claims Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Supplemental now requested Subtotal Railroad employees retirement funds 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5,189 50 909 10,362 13,440 1,238 1,400 1,160 1,300 6,149 13,000 15,900 2,649 27 2,999 25 3,354 29 —116 2 2,675 3,026 3,267 5,489 218 2 6,917 329 14 8,504 292 15 —773 5,709 7,260 8,039 521 626 695 431 Subtotal Airport and airway trust fund 521 626 1,126 Highway trust funds: Current programs (mainly grants to States) Proposed legislation 4,599 4,670 * 5,003 * 4,599 4,670 5,002 2,675 701 531 -499 3,613 761 472 -842 4,869 772 497 -1,091 96,382 -952 -3,954 -642 117,155 -999 -4,708 -1,110 130,781 -1,052 -5,525 -779 90,833 110,338 123,425 Federal employees retirement: Benefit payments and claims Refunds to former employees Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation Subtotal Federal employees retirement Airport and airway trust fund: Current programs Proposed legislation Subtotal Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Subtotal Intrafund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies. Total outlays *Less than $500 thousand. SPECIAL ANALYSES 37 Balances oi the trust funds.—The balances of the trust funds continue to increase, as shown in the following end-of-year figures (in millions of dollars): 1973 actual Open book balances Investments in U.S. securities: 1974 actual 1975 esti- 1976 esii- 5.937 5.018 4.798 4,436 Public debt_._ Agency debt 113.865 1.340 128,795 1,340 137,353 1,340 140,800 1,340 Total 121,142 135,153 143.491 146,576 A summary of the balances by fund is presented in table B-9. The amounts include both open-book balances with Treasury and investments in U.S. securities. Part of the balances is obligated, part unobligated. The balances on an authorization basis exceed the cash balances because for a few accounts budget authority is not the same as receipts; these differences are listed in the note appended to the table. Table B-9. T R U S T FUND BALANCES (in millions of dollars) As of June 30 Description 1973 actual Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trustfunds Health insurance trust funds State and local governmentfiscalassistance trust f und_ Unemployment trust fund Railroad retirement accounts Federal employees retirement funds Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) _ _. Trust revolving funds Total 1974 actual 44,300 5,114 1, 658 11,099 4,631 31,157 1,187 5,591 710 7,448 678 7,567 121,142 46.136 9,186 1, 607 12,428 4,581 34,480 1,534 7,667 1,202 7,594 671 8,066 135,153 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 47,738 12,059 1,636 9,210 4,364 38,363 1,942 9,413 1,481 7,704 46,818 15,643 1,690 3,070 4,329 42,232 1,950 11,075 1,281 7,843 672 645 8,908 10.000 143,491 146,576 Note.—The balances shown here cover the amounts on deposit with Treasury, and the U.S. securities held. In addition, certain funds have authority to obligate in advance of receiving moneys, and to borrow from the public. The reconciliation is as follows: 1973 Balance available on an authorization basis Unfinanced contract authority: Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Other Unappropriated receipts: Available as needed, on an indefinite basis Available for appropriation by Congress: Soldiers' Home permanent fund Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Retained as permanent endowment Balance available on a cash basis 1974 1975 132,717 155,782 166,245 165,047 1976 —1,208 -10,119 -6,204 -10 —1,008 -17,351 -10,768 -7 —509 -19,266 -13,576 —489 -14,640 -15,707 __ 3 —42 15 15 98 574 5,283 6 93 932 7,515 6 92 1,400 9,085 6 89 1,402 10,843 16 121,142 135,153 143,491 146,575 38 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 For 1976, as in many recent years, the largest net investments are expected to be those of the trust funds established by the Social Security Act as amended. Trust revolving funds.—The activities of the trust revolving fund subgroup are shown in table B-10. The largest of these funds are those used by the Civil Service Commission to buy insurance for Government employees. Table B-10. TRUST REVOLVING FUND TRANSACTIONS (in millions of dollars) Applicable receipts Description 1974 actual Civil Service Commission (employees' life insurance and health benefits) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation All other trust revolving funds.. Total 1trust funds revolving Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts... 1 2,081 Gross outlays 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1974 actual 1975 estimate 2,455 2,906 1,868 2,150 2,549 725 239 680 253 730 352 501 177 150 246 31 317 3,045 3,388 3,988 2,546 2,546 2,897 (1,905) (1,141) (1,934) (1,454) (2,230) (1,758) Excludes right-of-way revolving fund which is a part of the highway trust funds. 1976 estimate SPECIAL ANALYSIS C BORROWING, DEBT, AND INVESTMENT The major fiscal responsibilities of the Federal Government include not only taxation and expenditure but also: • The borrowing of cash to meet current requirements not covered by receipts and to refinance maturing debt; • The investment of balances that trust funds and other Government accounts do not currently need for outlays; and • The provision of assistance, including Government guarantees, for certain non-Federal borrowing. This analysis summarizes current developments in Federal borrowing. It also discusses the size and growth of the Federal debt and the interest on the Federal debt, agency borrowing, agency investment in U.S. Government securities, the statutory debt limit, and borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises. The analysis concludes with a brief discussion of the trend in Federal and federally assisted borrowing and the relationship of this trend to total funds raised by nonfmancial sectors in the economy. Excluded from this analysis are other types of Federal liabilities such as accounts payable, obligations for undelivered orders, long-term contracts, insurance commitments, and the obligation for future payments of social security and military retirement. Special Analysis E examines the related subject of Federal credit programs, which include direct loans, loans by Government-sponsored enterprises, and Government-guaranteed loans. The factors discussed in both Special Analyses C and E are significant in appraising the impact on financial markets of the programs contained in the 1976 Federal budget. BORROWING AND REPAYING DEBT The Federal Government borrows for two principal reasons. First, it sells debt to the public in order to finance Federal deficits. Second, it sells debt to the Government agencies that accumulate surpluses in separate funds, primarily trust funds, required by law to be invested in Federal securities. Most Federal debt has been issued by the Treasury and is called "public debt," but a small portion has been issued by other Government agencies and is called "agency debt." 1 The gross Federal debt includes debt held by both the public and the agencies. Since Treasury borrowing from the agencies is an internal transaction between two funds both within the Government 1 The term "agency debt" is defined more narrowly in the budget than in the securities market, where it may include not only the debt of the Government agencies listed in table C-5 but also the debt of other issuers such as the Government-sponsored enterprises listed in table C—8. 39 40 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 6 itself, only borrowing from the public affects the volume of securities sold in the financial markets, the size and composition of assets held by the private sector, and the taxes required to pay interest on the Federal debt. Borrowing from the public—whether by the Treasury or by an agency—has a significant impact on financial markets and thereby on the economy, and is consequently an important concern of Federal fiscal policy. For most purposes borrowing from the Federal Reserve System should be distinguished from borrowing by the rest of the public. Federal Eeserve purchases of debt are undertaken to carry out monetary policy, not to earn income, and affect the economy by means of expanding bank reserves and the money stock. They thus have a markedly different motivation and effect on financial markets than do purchases by other sectors of the public. The debt held outside the Federal Reserve System, in contrast, enters into investment portfolios of businesses and individuals and by this means affects interest rates, other financial conditions, and private wealth. Almost all interest received by the Federal Reserve System is returned to the Treasury as a receipt, called a deposit of earnings, so the net cost to the Government of Federal Reserve holdings of debt is very small. The debt held by the public exclusive of the Federal Reserve System is not estimated in this analysis for future years, despite its significance, because Federal Reserve open market operations depend on future economic developments and on policy decisions not yet made. Table C-l summarizes Federal borrowing from 1974 through 1976. In 1974 the total Federal borrowing (net of the refunding of securities)—i.e., the rise in gross Federal debt—was $17.8 billion. The borrowing from Government agencies was $14.8 billion, and the Table C-l. CHANGES IN FEDERAL DEBT (in millions of dollars) Increase or decrease (—) Description 1974 actual Gross Federal debt: Treasury debt_._ Agency debt.— _. Gross Federal debt Less debt held by Government agencies: Treasury debt. Agency debt ._._ Debt held by Government agencies Total debt held by the public Composed of: Debt held by the Federal Reserve System. Debt held by others NA = Not available. _ _ Debt outstanding. end 1976 estimate 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 16,918 903 52,796 -502 67,570 -186 594,600 11,325 17,821 52,294 67,384 605,925 14,821 -8 8,865 -71 3,902 -18 150,973 1,899 14,813 8,794 3,884 152,872 3,009 43,500 63,500 453,053 5,467 -2,458 NA NA NA NA NA NA SPECIAL ANALYSES 41 borrowing from the public was $3.0 billion. Since the Federal Reserve System bought $5.5 billion of Federal debt, which was more than the total Federal borrowing from the public, the Government paid back $2.5 billion of debt held by other lenders—commercial banks, foreign central banks, other financial institutions, other businesses, and individuals. Borrowing from the public is expected to rise to $43.5 billion in 1975 and $63.5 billion in 1976. This increase is primarily because the current recession is automatically reducing tax receipts and raising unemployment benefits and because temporary tax cuts are proposed to stimulate the economy. By the end of 1976 gross Federal debt is expected to be $605.9 billion, with 75% held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) and the remainder by the agencies. Ninety-eight percent of the gross Federal debt will have been issued by the Treasury. Until recent years the Federal debt was held almost entirely by domestic individuals and institutions. After World War II the debt held in foreign balances and international accounts tended to grow gradually and by the end of 1969 amounted to $10 billion.2 However, due to international monetary developments, in 1970 the foreign and international holdings began to grow much faster and by the end of 1974 they were $57 billion. Most of the Treasury debt held abroad is owned by foreign central banks. The annual borrowing from abroad is shown below for 1969-74 in comparison with the annual borrowing from the domestic public, exclusive of the Federal Reserve System (in billions of dollars): 1969 Foreign and international -0.4 Domestic (excluding Federal Reserve System) -12.6 Total borrowing from the public (excluding Federal Reserve System) -13.0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 3.7 17.9 17.3 10.2 -2.5 -1.9 -6.3 -3.8 5.3 * 1.8 11.6 13.5 15.5 -2.5 * Less than $50 million. Until 1970, the total borrowing from the public and the domestic borrowing from the public were about the same. In 1970, however, total borrowing was modestly larger than domestic borrowing; and in 1971 and 1972, Government borrowing from abroad was between $17 billion and $18 billion, which was several times higher than ever before. Consequently, despite the Government's very large borrowing from the public in 1971 and 1972, the amount of Federal debt held by the domestic public (exclusive of the Federal Reserve System) decreased in both these years. The Government borrowing from abroad remained large in 1973, but in 1974 a small amount of the Government debt held abroad was repaid. 42 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 BORROWING AND GOVERNMENT DEFICITS Table C-2 shows how borrowing from the public is related to the Federal deficit. In previous years the budget deficit constituted practically the entire deficit of the Federal Government, but during 1974-76 the deficit of the off-budget Federal agencies is also significant. In 1974 the total Government deficit was $6.1 billion. About half of this amount, $3.0 billion, was financed by borrowing from the public, and the remaining $3.1 billion was financed by other means. Some of these other means of financing the deficit can be either positive or negative. In years when these other means add up to a negative total, such as is estimated for 1976, then they must be financed by borrowing from the public just like the deficit itself. Table C-2. MEANS OF FINANCING THE FEDERAL DEFICIT (In millions of dollars) Description 1974 actual Budget surplus or deficit ( - ) Surplus or deficit ( - ) of off-budget Federal agencies l Total surplus or deficit ( - ) Means of financing other than borrowing from the public: Decrease or increase (—) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease (—) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc.2 Deposit fund balances Seigniorage on coins Increment on gold Total means of financing other than borrowing from the public Total requirements for borrowing from the public Change in debt held by the public 1975 estimate 1976 estimate -3,460 -34,696 -51,852 -2,675 -13,931 -10,642 -6,135 -48,627 -62,494 2,519 3,147 —367 -913 -19 321 1,219 1,500 -133 613 -1,500 189 672 3,127 5,127 -1,006 —3,009 —43,500 3,009 43,500 —63,500 63,500 ing Bank, Export-Import Bank, Postal Service, and United States Railway Association. Not all these agencies existed during the entire period. 2 Besides checks outstanding, includes military payment certificates, accrued interest (less unamortized discount) payable on Treasury debt, and, as an offsetting change in assets, certain collections in transit. SPECIAL ANALYSES 43 The means of financing a deficit other than borrowing from the public are: • A decrease in cash or monetary assets; • An increase in monetary liabilities for checks outstanding, etc.; • An increase in deposit fund balances, which are liabilities that arise when the Federal Government temporarily holds money in a deposit as an agent for someone else (such as State income taxes withheld from Federal employees' salaries and not yet paid to the States); • Seigniorage, which is the face value of minted coins less the cost of their production; and • The increment on gold, which is the increase in the value of gold assets of the United States in 1974 due to the change in the par value of the dollar authorized by section 2 of the Par Value Modification Act as amended by Public Law 93-110. As the figures in table C-2 indicate, the extent to which the deficit can be financed by means other than borrowing from the public is limited. Consequently, the total Government deficit and the borrowing from the public tend to be closely related. Borrowing from the agencies largely depends on the surpluses of the trust funds, which, as shown in table C-6, own 93% of the Federal debt held by Government agencies. The relationship between borrowing from agencies and trust fund surpluses during 1974-76 can be seen by comparing the purchase of Federal debt by the agencies, given in table C-l, with the aggregate surplus of the trust funds. The trust fund surplus was $14.0 billion in 1974 and is expected to be $8.3 billion in 1975 and $3.1 billion in 1976. SIZE AND GROWTH OF FEDERAL DEBT Gross Federal debt has risen substantially over most of the past four decades, from about $16 billion in 1929 to $486.2 billion at the end of 1974. Table C-3 presents the detail of this change since 1954 and shows that a sizable part of the increase is held in Federal Government accounts (primarily trust funds) rather than being owed to the public. From the end of 1954 to the end of 1974, gross Federal debt rose by 80% while Federal debt held by the public rose by 54%. Federal debt held by the public apart from the Federal Reserve System rose still less, by 33%—an annual compound rate of growth of 1.4% over the 20 years—because during this period the Federal Reserve System bought a large quantity of Federal debt in the market, thereby expanding the reserves of the banking system and providing for growth in the Nation's money stock. 44 T H E BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table C-3. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT AND GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (in billions of dollars) Held by Gross Federal debt Fiscal year 1954 1955 1956 . . 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962. 1963 . . . 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 . 1969!2 _ . 1970 1971 1972 3 1973 1974 _ 1975 estimate 1976 estimate . 270.8 274.4 272.8 272.4 279.7 287.8 290.9 292.9 303.3 310.8 316.8 323.2 329.5 341.3 369.8 367.1 382.6 409.5 437.3 468.4 486.2 538.5 605.9 Federal Government accounts 46.3 47.8 50.5 52.9 53.3 52.8 53.7 54.3 54.9 56.3 59.2 61.5 64.8 73.8 79.1 87.7 97.7 105.1 113.6 125.4 140.2 149.0 152.9 GNP The public Total 224.5 226.6 222.2 219.4 226.4 235.0 237.2 238.6 248.4 254.5 257.6 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 284.9 304.3 323.8 343.0 346.1 389.6 453.1 Federal Reserve System 25.0 23.6 23.8 23.0 25.4 26.0 26.5 27.3 29.7 32.0 34.8 39.1 42.2 46.7 52.2 54.1 57.7 65.5 71.4 75.2 80.6 NA NA Other 199.5 203.0 198.5 196.4 200.9 209.0 210.7 211.4 218.7 222.4 222.8 222.5 222.5 220.8 238.4 225.4 227.2 238.8 252.3 267.9 265.4 NA NA 362.1 378.6 409.4 431.3 440.3 469.1 495.2 506.5 542.1 573.4 612.2 654.2 721.2 769.8 826.0 898.3 954.6 ,012.1 ,101.6 ,224.1 ,348.9 1,434.0 1,596.0 Debt held by public as percent of GNP 62.0 59.9 54.3 50.9 51.4 50.1 47.9 47.1 45.8 44.4 42.1 40.0 36.7 34.8 35.2 31.1 29.8 30.1 29.4 28.0 25.7 27.2 28.4 NA = Not available. During 1969, 3 Government-sponsored enterprises became completely privately owned, and their debt was removed from the totals for the Federal Government. At the dates of their conversion, gross Federal debt was reduced $10.7 billion, debt held by Government accounts was reduced $0.6 billion, and debt held by the public was reduced $10.1 billion. 3 Gross Federal debt and debt held by the public were increased $1.6 billion due to a reclassification of certain certificates of interest as debt. 3 A procedural change in the recording of trust fund holdings of Treasury debt at the end of the month increased gross Federal debt and debt held in Government accounts by about $4.5 billion. 1 During the depression of the 1930's and during World War II, Federal debt held by the public increased greatly, not only in absolute amount but also, as shown in the following chart, as a proportion of total net indebtedness: Federal, State and local, and private. Whereas Federal debt held by the public was only 9% of total net debt at the end of calendar year 1929, it had risen to 62% by the end of calendar year 1945. Federal borrowing was large during these years, particularly to finance World War II, and borrowing by other sectors was restricted by low incomes and poor credit-worthiness during the depression and by controls and scarcities during the war. 45 SPECIAL ANALYSES Percent Distribution of Net Indebtedness1 Percent 100 80 1930 (940 1950 i960 1970 End or" Calendar Year 'Federal net indebtedness it the Federal debt Held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System). Private n debtedness includes the debt of the Government-sponsored enterprises, which ore federally chartered but privately o Since 1945, however, private debt has increased as a proportion of total debt in every year, and in every year the Federal debt held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) has decreased as a proportion of the total. State and local government debt has risen in amount every year and has risen in proportion to total debt for the period as a whole. From the end of calendar year 195^ to the end of 1973, Federal debt held by the public rose' 54%, State and local government debt rose 510%, and private debt rose 515%. By the end of calendar year 1973, Federal debt held by the public was only 14% of total debt. As a result of these trends, Federal debt and borrowing, although still significant, have become relatively much smaller influences in the financial markets. During the same period Federal debt has decreased relative to gross national product. As shown in table C—3, debt held by the public equaled 62% of gross national product at the end of 1954 but declined steadily to 26%'by the end of 1974. Debt held by the public is, however, expected to rise as a proportion of gross national product in 1975 and 1976. 46 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 The interest cost of the debt may be more significant than the amount of the debt for some types of comparison designed to measure the importance of Federal indebtedness. Interest on the debt held by the public has risen much faster than the debt itself, due to a strong upward trend since World War II in the interest rates that must be paid on new borrowings and on refunded debt. Between 1954 and 1974 the Federal debt held by the public grew 54%, but, as shown in table C-4, the interest paid to the public more than quadrupled. For this period as a whole, interest payments to the public grew faster than gross national product. In the first 5 years, 1954-58, interest was equal to 1.39% of gross national product, whereas by the last 5 years, 197074, the proportion had risen moderately to 1.59%. On the other hand, the proportion of budget outlays devoted to paying interest on the debt held by the public did not show any trend over the period as a whole and fluctuated around an average of 7.7%. Table C-4. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN INTEREST ON FEDERAL DEBT, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, AND BUDGET OUTLAYS (in billions of dollars) Interest on the gross Federal debt Interest on debt held by the public as a percent of Paid to Fiscal year Total 1954 _ 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963, 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968.. . .. 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8 7.8 9.5 9.3 9.5 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.6 17.7 20.0 21.6 22.5 24.8 30.0 33.7 36.7 Federal Government accounts 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.3 7.7 8.9 9.5 The public Total 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.7 9.2 9.8 10.4 11.6 12.6 14.1 15.6 16.3 16.6 18.5 22.4 24.7 27.2 Federal Reserve System * 0.5 .4 .5 .7 .7 .8 1 0 .0 0 .1 1 ? 14 7 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.3 NA NA GNP Other 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.6 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.6 10.2 11.2 12.2 12.6 12.9 14.2 17.0 NA NA 1.43 1.37 1 % 1.37 1.44 1 V 1 63 1.54 1 46 1.51 1 51 I.50 1.45 1 51 1,53 1.57 1.64 1.61 1.51 1.51 1.66 .73 70 Budget outlays J 7.2^ 7.56 7.90 7.73 7.68 6.96 8.73 7.96 7.40 7.7S 7.80 8.29 7.75 7.36 7.07 7.66 7.95 7.73 7.16 7.51 8.33 7.89 7.78 NA = Not available. Estimated as the average or calendar year figures. The 1974 estimate is tentative. Budget outlays for 1954-76 are given in the Budget. Part 9. table 20. 1 2 Since the end of World War II the composition of the Federal debt has changed, with an increasingly large proportion of Federal securities having a relatively short maturity. One contributing factor was the statutory ceiling of 4#% that has been maintained since 1918 on SPECIAL ANALYSES 47 the interest rate that could be paid on Treasury bonds.3 Because long-term market rates exceeded 4%%, the ceiling prevented the Treasury from selling long-term obligations after 1965. The ceiling thereby tended to increase the gross dollar volume of debt refunded each year. Since 1965, the average maturity of Treasury marketable debt has declined from about 5 years to about 3 years. This restriction on Treasury borrowing was relaxed in March 1971 by a law that allowed the Treasury to issue up to $10 billion of long-term bonds at interest rates above 4%%. In July 1973 the restriction was relaxed further by exempting from this limit those bonds held by Government accounts and the Federal Reserve System. Treasury now has $12.7 billion of bonds outstanding that have been sold since the change of law in 1971, including bonds held by Government accounts and the Federal Reserve System. The effective interest rates have ranged upwards from 6.1% with an average of 7.1%. BORROWING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES A few Government agencies are authorized to sell their own debt instruments to the public and to other Government agencies and funds. This agency borrowing is part of the gross Federal debt. For those a'gencies included in the budget, the authorization to borrow is budget authority and the disbursement of such borrowed money is a budget outlay. Agency debt includes the borrowings of off-budget Federal agencies, which are Government owned and controlled but whose transactions have been excluded from the budget totals under provisions of law. Those off-budget agencies that will have borrowed by the end of 1976 are the Export-Import Bank, the Postal Service, the Federal Financing Bank, and the United States Railway Association. Part of the debt of the Export-Import Bank and the Postal Service was issued before they were excluded from the budget. The debt of the Federal Financing Bank is classified by Treasury as public debt rather than agency debt. The Federal Financing Bank (FFB) was created in December 1973 under the Treasury Department in order to assist agency borrowing and Government-guaranteed borrowing and to coordinate such borrowing with Treasury debt management. It was given the authority to purchase agency debt and Government-guaranteed loans directly from any Federal agency and, in turn, to finance its purchase of these obligations by selling its own debt instruments to the public or the Treasury. Since the FFB should be able to borrow from the public or the Treasury at lower interest rates than other agencies would have to pay in the market, this procedure is expected to reduce the cost of agency borrowing activities. To the extent that this procedure is used, the FFB will serve as a conduit for agency borrowing, and FFB or Treasury securities will replace the securities of other agencies in the market. Agency borrowing from the FFB is not included in gross Federal debt. It would be double counting to add together both the agency borrowing from the FFB and also the FFB borrowing from the public (or the FFB borrowing from Treasury and the Treasury borrowing from the public) that was necessary to provide the FFB with funds to lend to the agencies. 3 Until 1967, 5-year notes were the longest term security that could be issued without regard to this limitation. In 1967 the maximum maturity of notes was raised to 7 years. 48 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Agency borrowing was shown in total in table C-1 and is shown by agency in table C-5. In 1974 the new agency borrowing exceeded the repayment of agency debt by $0.9 billion. In 1975 and 1976, on the other hand, repayments are expected to exceed new borrowing by small amounts. The agency debt outstanding on June 30, 1976, is estimated to be $11.3 billion, which is 2% of gross Federal debt. Table C-5. AGENCY BORROWING (in millions of dollars) Description — Borrowing from the public: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration1 Defense Health, Education, and Welfare J_ Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans1 Public facility loans* Federal Housing Administration._ Housing for the elderly * Government National Mortgage Association1 Veterans Administration1 Export-Import Bank__ Postal Service. _ Small Business Administration1 _ _ Tennessee Valley Authority All other_ Increase or decrease in debt (-) 1974 1976 1975 s im -89 Debt out• standing, end 1976 1 -105 -92 317 1,005 130 304 94 405 64 668 625 2,583 250 2 45 4 -65 -45 663 -67 -43 -301 -39 -41 440 5 51 -10 * 2,695 2 911 -431 -168 9,426 -13 -10 -18 175 152 283 Total borrowing from the public Borrowing from other funds: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration1 Defense.. _ _____ Health, Education, and Welfare1. _ Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans1 Public facility loans* Federal Housing Administration Housing for the elderly * Government National Mortgage Association1 Veterans Administration 1 Export-Import Bank Small Business Administration1 Tennessee Valley Authority 68 163 49 52 33 500 546 -6 10 1 -10 161 -51 _ Total borrowing from other funds -8 -71 -18 1,899 Total agency borrowing included in gross Federal debt 903 -502 -186 11,325 500 780 1,607 500 750 1,421 1,550 1.530 3,027 2,550 100 444 544 500 2,987 4,165 7,651 MEMORANDUM Borrowing from Federal Financing Bank: Tennessee Valley Authority Export-Import Bant Postal Service United States Railway Association _. Total agency borrowing from Federal Financing Bank *Less than $500 thousand. 1 Certificates of participation in loans. SPECIAL ANALYSES 49 As shown in the memorandum section of table C-5, the FFB is having a profound effect on agency borrowing.4 Four agencies that would otherwise borrow in the market borrowed $0.5 billion from the FFB in late 1974 and are expected to borrow $3.0 billion in 1975 and $4.2 billion in 1976. Consequently, almost no agency borrowing from the market is scheduled to take place in 1975 and 1976, and the amounts to be borrowed from the FFB are far larger than the net repayment of agency debt held by the public and other Government funds. If not for the FFB, the agency component of gross Federal debt would be $7.7 billion higher at the end of 1976. The FFB began financial operations in May 1974 and borrowed $1.5 billion in 8-month securities from the public in July 1974. Its previous and subsequent borrowing, however, has all been from the Treasury, which can borrow from the public at lower interest rates than the FFB. No further FFB borrowing from the public is currently scheduled. Therefore, no amounts are presented for the FFB in the tables in this special analysis. The FFB has substantial authority to borrow from either the public or the Treasury. With the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury, the FFB is authorized to have outstanding at any one time up to $15 billion of publicly issued debt and to borrow from the Treasury without a statutory limitation on the amount. By the end of 1976, $5.5 billion of agency debt, or almost half of the total, will be obligations of the agencies listed in table C-5 that are currently expected to conduct future borrowing from the FFB. A total of $4.2 billion, or over a third of all agency debt, will consist of certificates of participation in pools of loans issued by the Government National Mortgage Association as trustee on behalf of several agencies, which are identified in table C-5. The issuance of certificates of participation was discontinued after 1968. A further $1.0 billion of agency debt will be family housing mortgages assumed a number of years ago by the Department of Defense. The remaining agency debt, which is mostly for programs that will continue to borrow from the public, will constitute only 4% of the total—$457 million of Federal Housing Administration debentures and $8 million of other obligations. 4 FFB purchases of Government-guaranteed loans are shown in table C—9. 580-700 O - 75 - 4 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 The Treasury provides capital to business-type Government enterprises both in the form of capital stock and in the form of "debt." The provision of "debt" is shown as "borrowing from Treasury" on the statements of financial condition for enterprises in the Budget Appendix. However, the equity and the "debt" instruments are the same in substance; and it would be double counting to add together the agency "borrowing" from the Treasury and the Treasury borrowing from the public that was necessary to provide the agencies with this capital. Therefore, agency "borrowing" from Treasury is excluded from figures on agency "borrowing" and "debt" in all other parts of the budget documents. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES Trust funds and some public enterprise funds accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to meet future claims and demands. Such cash surpluses are invested mostly in Treasury debt and, to a very small extent, in agency debt. Purchases of these securities are not counted as budget outlays, and redemptions are not counted as budget receipts. As shown in table C-6, net investment by trust funds and other Federal agencies in Government securities was $14.8 billion in 1974 and is expected to decline substantially to $8.8 billion in 1975 and $3.9 billion in 1976. The major cause of this decrease is the large rise in unemployment. Higher unemployment is substantially increasing the benefits paid by the unemployment trust fund and reducing the employment tax receipts of the social security trust funds. Total agency holdings of Federal securities will reach an estimated $152.9 billion by June 30, 1976. This will constitute 25% of the gross Federal debt. Two major groups of trust funds—the social security funds and the Civil Service Commission funds—will account for 70% of total agency holdings, and all the trust funds together will account for 93%. Ninety-nine percent of the holdings will be Treasury debt, and the holdings of agency debt will decline by small amounts each year. SPECIAL ANALYSES 51 Table C-6. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES (In millions of dollars) Increase or decrease ( —) in holdings Description 1974 actual Investment in Treasury debt: Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors ins. trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical ins. trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Other Labor: Unemployment trust fund Transportation: Highway trust fund Airport-Airway trust fund Treasury: Exchange stabilization fund Veterans Administration: National service life insurance fund. Other trust funds Other.. ... Civil Service Commission: Civil Service retirement and disability fund Other tiustfunds Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.: Trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Postal Service Railroad Retirement Board: Trust funds. _ Other trust funds Other Federal funds Other off-budget funds ._ __. __ ._ ___ Total investment in Treasury debt Investment in agency debt: Agriculture: CCC Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust f u n d . Federal hospital insurance trust fund.. Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Veterans Administration: National service life insurance fund Civil Service Commission: Civil Service retirement and disability fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Postal Service Railroad Retirement Board: Trust funds Total investment in agency debt _ 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Holdings, end of 1976 estimate 2,217 391 3,642 531 1,682 -216 2,559 326 —19 -901 3,212 371 38,826 7,078 13,585 1,928 68 191 27 1,165 138 245 29 -3,297 72 218 21 -6,140 1,417 1,531 183 2,684 2,049 878 -570 1,786 1,034 (*) 1,657 31 0) 11,043 1,943 * 2,364 178 -1 31 156 1 33 178 -3 33 6,940 1,041 350 3,465 204 225 3,839 311 530 3,846 357 872 41,641 2,339 7,263 378 -310 -60 46 71 4 299 -515 -191 38 59 20 321 -260 -35 21 35 15 3,904 14,821 8,865 3,902 150,973 -6 -6 -6 35 _. 555 50 * — 12 191 191 _ —6 — 14 * —42 4,272 218 377 46 310 375 142 18 -23 50 _ -8 -71 -18 1,899 Total agency investment in Federal securities.. 14,813 8,794 3,884 152,872 741 14,930 -858 754 8,557 -518 682 3,447 —245 8,322 142,140 2,410 MEMORANDUM Investment by Federal funds Investment by trust funds Investment by off-budget Federal agencies •Lest than $500 thousand. 1 The change in holdings is not estimated due to the uncertainties in foreign exchange, and the 1976 yeartnd holdings are taken to be the actual holdings at the end of 1974. 52 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 LIMITATIONS ON FEDERAL DEBT Statutory limitations have customarily been placed on Federal debt. After enactment of the Second Liberty Bond Act in 1917, the limitation on the amount of debt developed in several steps from being an authorization of an amount for each specific issue to being an overall ceiling on the total amount of most outstanding Federal debt. The latter type of limitation has been in effect since 1941. The limit currently applies to the total of: • All public debt issued by the Treasury since September 1917, whether held by the public or by the Government; • Special non-interest-bearing notes issued to the International Monetary Fund; • Agency debt in the form of participation certificates issued during 1968 under the Participation Sales Act of 1966; and • Other debt issued by Federal agencies (and the District of Columbia Armory Board) which, according to explicit statute, is fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States. The statutory limit was $465 billion for the period beginning November 1, 1972, and ending November 30, 1973. This limit consisted of a permanent limit of $400 billion and a temporary increase to that limit of $65 billion. On November 30, 1973, the temporary increase of $65 billion expired, and the level of the statutory limit fell to the permanent limit of $400 billion. On that date the outstanding debt subject to limit was $65.0 billion more than the statutory limit. On December 3, 1973, the statutory limit was temporarily raised to $475.7 billion, and on June 30, 1974, it was temporarily raised to $495 billion. The temporary increase to $495 billion expires on March 31, 1975, after which the permanent limit of $400 billion is scheduled to come into effect. The outstanding debt subject to limit is shown in table C-7 and compared with the gross Federal debt and the Federal debt held by the public. The debt subject to limit was $476.0 billion at the end of 1974 and is expected to rise to $528.9 billion and $596.4 billion at the end of 1975 and 1976, respectively. These amounts are substantially more than the permanent debt limit of $400 billion. The debt subject to limit equals 98% of the gross Federal debt. As table C-7 shows, almost all of the difference is accounted for by agency debt not subject to the general limitation. SPECIAL ANALYSES 53 Table C-7. DEBT SUBJECT TO STATUTORY LIMIT Description Federal debt held by the public Add: Federal debt held by Government agencies (in millions of dollars) End of year 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 346,053 140,194 389,553 148,988 453,053 152,872 486,247 538,541 605,925 617 610 610 1,382 2,696 2,894 250 3,235 13 1,267 2,695 2,583 250 3, 125 2 1,157 2,695 2,583 250 3,045 2 Total Federal debt not subject to limit 11,086 10,532 10,343 Federal debt subject to statutory limit District of Columbia Armory Board bonds Special notes held by International Monetary Fund 475,161 20 825 528,009 20 825 595,582 20 825 Total debt subject to statutory limit 476,006 528,853 596,427 Gross Federal debt Deduct: Treasury debt not subject to limit Agency debt not subject to general limitation: Department of Defense Tennessee Valley Authority Export-Import Bank Postal Service Participation certificates! Other 1 Certificates of participation issued by the Government National Mortgage Association as trustee for five departments and agencies (excluding certificates issued during 1968). The debt subject to statutory limit is expected to increase more than the debt held by the public in both 1975 and 1976: $52.8 billion compared to $43.5 billion in 1975, and $67.6 billion compared to $63.5 billion in 1976. The slower growth in the debt held by the public is due primarily to the surpluses of certain funds in the Federal budget—principally trust funds. Since these surpluses are largely invested in Federal debt, they reduce the debt held by the public. However, since the Federal debt acquired by these funds is almost entirely subject to the statutory debt limit, this investment does not reduce the amount of debt subject to limit. Agency debt subject to the statutory limit is comprised almost exclusively of debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration and participation certificates sold in 1968. These two categories together make up only about one-seventh of total agency debt. However, most other agency debt requires explicit statutory authorization, whether sold to the public, the Federal Financing Bank, or other Government funds. For example, the Postal Service is limited to $2 billion of annual borrowing and $10 billion of outstanding bonds. 54 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING The impact of the Government on borrowing includes not only its own borrowing to finance Federal operations but also its assistance to certain borrowing by the public. Federally assisted borrowing is of two types: Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises, and Government-guaranteed borrowing by non-Federal borrowers. Seven Government-sponsored enterprises, which are federally chartered but fully privately owned, borrow under Government auspices. The transactions of these enterprises are not included within the Federal budget, and their debt is not part of gross Federal debt. These enterprises are essentially financial intermediaries, borrowing in the securities market and lending their borrowed funds for specifically authorized purposes either directly or by purchasing loans originated within the private sector that they were established to assist. The borrowing programs of all seven enterprises are subject to Federal supervision. In addition, they all consult the Treasury Department, either by law or by custom, in planning their market offerings. The Student Loan Marketing Association 5now plans to borrow exclusively from the Federal Financing Bank. The Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal home loan banks are required to obtain Treasury approval of the terms and timing of specific offerings. Four of the enterprises are systems of regional lending institutions that pool their borrowings. In addition to their Federal sponsorship, all of the established enterprises have a history of successful financial performance. Hence, despite the absence of Federal guarantees (except for the Student Loan Marketing Association), the obligations of these enterprises are sold at interest rates only moderately higher than the rates on Treasury issues. As shown in table C-8, the borrowing by these seven Government-sponsored enterprises totaled $14.9 billion in 1974 and is expected to be $14.2 billion in 1975 and $8.1 billion in 1976. The borrowing in all three years primarily reflects support for the housing market provided by the Federal home loan banks, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. The smaller borrowing estimated for 1976 is due to a reduction in the mortgage purchases and advances to savings institutions provided by these enterprises. Special Analysis E discusses lending by the Government-sponsored enterprises. * The securities of the other Government-sponsored enterprises are not Government guaranteed and therefore cannot be bought by the FFB. SPECIAL ANALYSES 55 Table C-8. NET CHANGES IN DEBT OF GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (b millions of dollars) Description Health, Education, and Welfare: Student Loan Marketing Association. _ Housing and Urban Development: Federal National Mortgage Association Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 1 Total Less increase in holdings of debt issued by Governmentsponsored enterprises Total borrowing enterprises or decreas e ( - ) 1974 1976 1975 Debt outstanding, end 1976 250 40 335 625 4,866 4,705 3,200 33,137 138 1,344 2,043 182 1.249 2.120 249 1.408 1.985 2,986 10,737 15.270 6,464 1,040 1.116 4,443 -2.495 3,748 15.300 12,262 16,145 13,855 8,430 90,317 1,253 -316 337 1,659 14,892 14,171 by Government-sponsored 8,093 88,658 The other type of federally assisted borrowing, Governmentguar,anteed borrowing, is defined as borrowing by individuals, private corporations, State and local governments, or foreign countries that is guaranteed by the United States Government. Governmentguaranteed borrowing is the same as Government-guaranteed lending. The major part of Government-guaranteed debt consists of mortgages on residential property. As shown in table C-9, Government-guaranteed borrowing was $10.1 billion in 1974 and is expected to rise to $15.4 billion in 1975 and $16.1 billion in 1976. Special Analysis E analyzes the various guarantee programs in detail. TOTAL FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING Table C-9 summarizes Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public. For the purpose of this table, Government-sponsored enterprises are excluded from the public and defined in the same sector as the Federal Government. Federal borrowing from the public is presented in total. Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises and Government-guaranteed borrowing are presented both in total and as net amounts, the latter having been adjusted in order to remove double counting in the derivation of total Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public. Double counting would otherwise occur when one type of Federal or federally assisted debt is bought or sold by the Government or a Government-sponsored enterprise. 56 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table C-9. NET BORROWING FROM THE PUBLIC BY GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES, AND GOVERNMENTGUARANTEED BORROWERS (in billions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( —) Debt outstanding, 1974 1975 1976 end 1976 actual estimate estimate estimate Description Federal borrowing from the public1 3.0 43.5 63.5 453.1 14.9 —* 14.2 .4 8.1 * 88.7 1.1 .1 .2 .3 .6 14.8 13.6 7.7 87.0 10.1 15.4 16.1 215, 5 .1 —.3 10.6 —.1 .1 5.8 —.4 16.5 3.0 .1 3.7 .2 .1 3.7 .2 .3 2.4 .3 .6 31.4 2.4 Net Government-guaranteed borrowing from public... 6.2 .8 7.7 161.7 Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public 24.1 57.9 78.9 701.7 2 Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises Less increase in holdings of Federal debt._ ___ Less increase in Government-sponsored debt held by Federal agencies Net Government-sponsored public... borrowing from _. 3 Government-guaranteed borrowing Less increase in Government-guaranteed loans held by: Federal agencies: Federal Financing Bank . Government National Mortgage Association Environmental Financing Authority Government-sponsored enterprises: Student Loan Marketing Association. _ Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation *Lcs8 than $50 million. table C-1. table C-8. The same as Government-guaranteed loans. See table E-7. 2iSee 3 See Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public in 1974 was composed mostly of Government-sponsored and Government-guaranteed borrowing, but in 1975 and 1976 the totals are made up predominantly of Federal borrowing from the public caused by large budget deficits. In addition, the Federal Financing Bank expects to acquire large amounts of Government-guaranteed debt in 1975 and 1976. Since the FFB finances these acquisitions through Federal borrowing, these transactions substitute Federal borrowing for Government-guaranteed borrowing in the market. The following chart depicts the trends in Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public between 1965 and 1976. Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing fell to $24.1 billion in 1974 due mostly to a sharp drop in the Federal deficit. The levels expected for 1975 and 1976 are much the highest for any recent years during this period. 57 SPECIAL ANALYSES Federal and Federally Assisted Borrowing SMtoM S&lhom 80- -80 > -70 70/ -60 60Federally Assisted Borrowing 50- / /&& -50 / /•'.•'.•'.''.•'; .. 40- -40 30 — — 30 fatally 20 — Assisted Repayments i /, /\ \ f -20 V It' 10 — -10 XwX\ >X'X'X*X*: Borrowing v;XvX;$V /$•$•$••••••••:$••: •x : x : x : x\ •••.-" 1 10 " 1965 ..,. 1 '66 '67 ^*<w:x:::x:x:x:::::::x:::x::'X::::::::^^ I 1 '68 '69 1 1 Federal Repayments 1 I 70 7J t t I 1 1 I 72 73 74 75 in 76 Fiscal Years As the chart shows, Federal and federally assisted borrowing is now substantially higher than a decade ago. Much of the increase parallels the growth in the economy and in the total funds raised by the ncnfinancial sector through the sale of debt securities and other forms of borrowing and through the sale of corporate equities. However, to some extent the total Federal and federally assisted borrowing has increased as a proportion of the total funds raised. This proportion rose from 15% during 1960-67 to 22% during 1968-74. Thus, despite the decreasing share of Federal debt in total debt, Government programs since 1968 have influenced the allocation of funds raised in financial markets more than they did in the preceding years. During 1968-74 this proportion did not tend to increase further, although it may rise again during 1975 and 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSIS D INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS This analysis divides outlays between those that are of an investment or "capital" nature and those directed to operating or "current" purposes. Budget outlays are classified into three categories; investment, current, and unclassified. Each of the major classifications is further subdivided so that civil and national defense outlays can be separately analyzed. The national defense division uses the same definitions as the national defense function in the budget; the civil grouping includes all other functions. Investment-type outlays.—These outlays yield benefits over several years: purchases of Federal physical assets, loans (both domestic and foreign); State, local, and private physical assets; and developmental expenditures which add to the Nation's capacity for better education, technical innovation, and health services. Current outlays.—These outlays are considered to provide benefits in the year that they are made. Included are aid and special services to agriculture, business, labor, homeowners, tenants, and veterans; payments to other nations; and Federal welfare obligations. Also included are: Payments from retirement and social insurance trust funds established to provide an assured income to contributors or their families in the event of unemployment, retirement, disability, or death; and, other services and current operating expenses. Finally, this category includes transactions such as: Operation and administration of Federal departments and agencies; repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets; regulatory and control activities; and interest. Unclassified outlays.—These outlays cannot be precisely classified in either of the above two categories and are placed in this residual classification. Included are: Allowance for contingencies; and certain financial adjustments that cannot be distributed, such as proprietary receipts and the employer share of employee retirement. These three categories of outlays are summarized in table D-l for 1974-76. • Additions to Federal assets, which will increase by more than 20% from 1975 to 1976, account for about two-thirds of the total change in investment-type outlays. • Investment-type outlays are expected to amount to $81.9 billion in 1976, about 12% above a }^ear earlier. • Retirement and social insurance benefits account for a large share of the increase in the 1976 budget rising by about $13.5 billion. • Current outlays are expected to be $280.6 billion in 1976, 9% higher than the $257.1 billion in 1975. 58 SPECIAL ANALYSES 59 Table EM. SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in billions of dollars) 1974 actual Outlays 1975 estimate 1976 estimate INVESTMENT-TYPE OUTLAYS Additions to Federal assets: Civil: Loans and other financial investments Physical assets: Public works Major commodity inventories Major equipment and other physical assets National defense 2.3 1.4 4.0 3.4 —.4 .7 17.9 4.2 .1 1.1 17.8 4.5 .2 1.0 20.5 _ 8.9 * 10.5 * 10.8 .1 _.__ 24.3 9.4 28.8 9.5 30.2 10.6 39.3 27.3 46.0 27.4 50.8 31.1 73.5 = 81.9 = Additions to State, local, and private assets: Civil National defense Developmental outlays: Civil National defense _. Subtotal, investment type outlays: Civil National defense Total 66.6 ===== = CURRENT OUTLAYS Current expenses for aids and special services: Civil National defense Retirement and social insurance benefits—civil._ Other services and current operating expenses: Civil: Net interests. Other . National defense Allowances, Department of Defense ._ 47.2 3.8 55.3 5.5 54.9 7.1 __ 78.2 97.5 111.0 _. 21.4 16.3 52.1 23.6 17.5 57.8 26.1 19.5 60.6 1.3 163.2 55.9 193.8 63.3 211.5 69.0 219.1 257.1 = = = = = ======== 280.6 ===== .5 _ _ _ Subtotal, current outlays: Civil National defense . . _ Total UNCLASSIFIED A llowances for: Energy tax equalization payments l Civilian agency pay raises Contingencies Employer share employee retirement (—) Proprietary receipts from the public (—): Civil......... National defense.. Subtotal unclassified outlays: Civil National defense _ _ _ _ ._ . Total Total budget, outlays: Civil National defense Total •Lest than $50 million. 1 Shown as civil. __ —3.3 .2 —4.1 7.0 .6 .5 —3.9 -9.3 -4.7 -8.3 -5.4 -11.1 -6.1 -12.6 -4.7 -11.7 -5.4 -7.0 -6.1 -17.4 -17.2 -13.1 189.9 78.5 228.2 85.3 255.4 94.0 268.4 313.4 349.4 _ _ 60 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-2 shows civil investments and current operating outlays as a percentage of total budget outlays. Current outlays drop from 61.8% in 1975 to 60.5% in 1976 as a share of total budget outlays. This relative decline is centered in current expenses for aids and special services, which declined from 17.7% in 1975 to 15.7% in 1976. Table D-2. CIVIL INVESTMENTS AND CURRENT OPERATING OUTLAYS (percent of total budget outlays) 1972 actual 1973 actual 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate INVESTMENT-TYPE OUTLAYS Additions to Federal assets: Loans Othei financial investments Public works—sites and direct construction Major commodity inventories Major equipment Other physical assets—acquisition and improvement Subtotal, additions to Federal assets 1.3 .1 1.4 0.2 .1 1.3 .2 .2 1.3 * .1 .9 .2 1.3 * .1 .1 .1 .7 .2 1.3 -.1 .1 .3 .3 .2 .3 .2 3.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.8 2.9 .4 3.0 .4 3.0 .3 3.0 .3 2.8 .3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.1 6.5 2.9 .1 6.3 2.9 .1 6.0 3.0 .1 6.3 2.8 .1 5.7 2.9 .1 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.2 8.7 15.9 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.5 1.8 1.1 .5 .3 4.8 .8 5.4 2.3 2.2 1.3 .6 .6 5.1 .6 5.3 2.4 1.2 1.5 .6 .6 5.0 .5 5.8 2.4 .7 1.4 1.2 .7 5.0 .5 6.1 2.2 .4 1.1 .6 .9 4.5 .7 5.5 2.1 17.1 18.1 17.6 17.7 15.7 21.2 23.9 25.1 25.1 24.7 2.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 3.7 2.3 4.8 2.3 25.4 27.5 29.1 31.1 31.8 _ 2 Additions to State, local, and private assets: State and local assets Private assets Subtotal, additions to State, local, and private assets Developmental outlays: Education, training and health Research and development Engineering and natural resources surveys Subtotal, other development outlays Total, investment-type outlays CURRENT OUTLAYS Current expenses for aids and special services: Agriculture Business Labor Homeowners and tenants Veterans International aids Welfare aids Other aids and special services Subtotal, current special services expenses for aids Retirement and social insurance benefits: Insurance benefits Unemployment benefits Other retirement and social insurance benefits. _ Subtotal, retirement and social insurance benefits SPECIAL ANALYSES 61 Table D-2. CIVIL INVESTMENTS AND CURRENT OPERATING OUTLAYS (percent of total budget outlays)—Continued 1972 actual 1973 actual 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Other services and current operating expenses: Repair, maintenance and operation of physical assets (excluding special services) Regulation and control Other operation and administration Net interest .5 1.0 1.9 6.9 .6 .9 4.6 7.1 .6 1.1 4.4 8.0 .3 1.1 4.2 7.5 .3 1.0 4.3 7.5 Subtotal, other services and current operating expenses 10.3 13.2 14.1 13.1 13.0 Total, current outlays 52.8 58.8 60.8 61.8 60.5 68.8 -2.6 73.3 -4.1 75.4 -4.7 76.5 -3.7 75.1 -2.0 CURRENT OUTLAYS-Continued Total, civil investments and current operating outlays Civil unclassified Net civil outlays 66.2 69.2 70.8 72.8 73.1 OUTLAYS OF AN INVESTMENT NATURE Outlays of an investment nature are divided into three categories: (1) Additions to Federal assets; (2) additions to State, local, and private assets; and (3) development outlays. Civil investment outlays are $50.8 billion, approximately 14.5% of the budget, while defense investment outlays are $31.1 billion, 8.9% of the 1976 budget. Additions to Federal assets.—This category comprises additions to both financial and physical assets of the Federal Government. Investment in Federal civil assets in 1976 is projected to be $9.7 billion, increasing by $2.9 billion, or 42.6% over the 1975 increase. Investment in defense assets in 1976 is planned to be $20.5 billion, an increase of $2.7 billion and an increase of 15.2% over the 1975 investment. The financial assets are primarily direct loans, for example, loans to finance private housing construction and encourage homeownership, to help small businesses, and to promote ecomonic development abroad. Federal financial assets include both loans and other financial investments. Other financial investments include the capital provided for certain international organizations such as the World Bank. Civil loans and financial assets are estimated to increase $4.0 billion and represent 1.1% of the 1976 budget. Loans are expected to increase by $2.6 billion. Special Analysis E discusses financial investments in greater detail. Additions to physical assets include outlays for public works, such as dam construction, flood control projects, Federal power systems, changes in major commodity inventories, and outlays for major equipment (including military equipment) and for the acquisition and improvements of real property and other physical assets. 62 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Additions to civil physical assets are $5.7 billion in 1976, as compared to additions of $5.4 billion in 1975. Public works investments, the largest part of this total are $4.5 billion in 1976 as compared to $4.2 billion in 1975. Additions to State, local, and private assets.—Federal outlays in this category add to State, local, and private assets. Grants that add to the physical assets of State and local governments are primarily for the construction of highways (mainly through the highway trust fund), hospitals, airports, waste-treatment plants, watershed protection projects, schools in federally affected areas, and public facilities under economic development programs for depressed regions. Outlays that increase the value of privately owned assets are largely for the conservation and improvement of private farmland and water resources, for grants for construction of private nonprofit hospitals and other health facilities, and for construction subsidies to the merchant fleet. Civil additions to State, local, and private assets in 1976 will be $10.8 billion, an increase of $0.3 billion more than in 1975. The major area of increased spending is in the Federal highway trust fund. Developmental outlays.—Federal outlays of this type are principally for research and development, education and health, and other programs that improve the knowledge, technical skills, and physical vigor of America. The Federal outlays shown in this category do not fully reflect the Government's contribution to the productivity of the economy. Certain other programs that further this end are classified in accordance with their principal purpose; thus, veterans educational benefits are listed as current expenses for veterans aid rather than as developmental outlays. Similarly, the training of military personnel and other Government emplo}^ees is treated as an operating expense and not as part of the Government's education and training programs. Civil research and developmental outlays are $30.2 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion from 1975. This includes increases for the supplemental security income (development), Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA), Airport and airway trust fund, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Civil developmental outlays for education, training, and health are $19.8 billion in 1976, or 5.7% of total outlays. Civil outlays for research and development are $10.1 billion in 1976 and reflect an increase of $1.3 billion from the 1975 level. The bulk of this increase is: $0.4 billion for air transport safety; $0.3 billion for NASA and $0.3 billion for ERDA. OUTLAYS OF A CURRENT NATURE Outlays of a current nature are divided into the following categories: (1) Current expenses for aids and special services; (2) retirement and social insurance benefits; and (3) other services and current operating expenses. SPECIAL ANALYSES 63 Current outlays for civil functions are $211.5 billion, an increase of $17.7 billion from 1976. The rate of increase will drop from 19% in 1975 to 9% in 1976. Current outlays for military functions are $69.0 billion, an increase of $5.7 billion from 1975. Current expenses for aids and special services.—Outlays classified under this heading provide aids or special services to certain groups, mainly in the year in which the outlays are made. In addition to such items as outlays for the farm programs of the Commodity Credit Corporation, maritime operating subsidies, veterans pensions, and grants to foreign nations for economic and military assistance, this category includes: (1) Administrative and other operating expenses attributable to investment-type programs that benefit specific groups; and (2) the costs of maintaining the physical assets related to those programs. Only part of the Federal Government's aid to special groups is reflected in this classification, which is limited by definition to current expenses. For example, subsidies for the construction of private merchant ships are classified as additions to private assets. Similarly, outlays for which the Federal Government increases its holdings of assets for collateral (as the acquisition of farm commodities by the Commodity Credit Corporation) are treated as additions to Federal assets. Many indirect Government aids are excluded from this classification because they either are not reflected in outlays or cannot be readily measured. Examples of such indirect benefits are loan guarantees, a subject discussed in Special Analysis E, "Federal Credit Programs.'' Although outlays in this category essentially provide a direct aid or special service yielding immediate benefits, some of the items included contribute indirectly to the Nation's future development. Among these are grants for several community development purposes. Aids to agriculture are expected to continue to decline, reaching $1.3 billion in 1976, a decrease of $1.7 billion from 1974. Farm Income support has dropped dramatically as farm income had increased. Aid to homeowners and tenants is expected to be $3.2 billion in 1976, an increase of 52% over the $2.1 billion of 1975. Retirement and social insurance benefits.—This category applies only to trust funds. It covers benefit programs that are financed from special taxes or contiibutions and provide insurance against the loss of income due to unemployment, retirement, disability, or death. It does not include outlays for Government employees' health and life insurance programs, which are in the form of premium payments to approved companies and are included with "other services and current operating outlays." The growth in retirement and social insurance benefits is the result of both a growing number of recipients and recently legislated increases. Outlays for these benefits are expected to increase 13.9% in 1976, to $111.0 billion and will be 31.8% of total outlays in 1976. A large part of this increase, $5.1 billion, will come from the increase in unemployment benefits due to a higher average unemployment rate in 1976 than in 1975. 64 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Other services and current operating outlays.—The outlays reported under this heading support a wide range of activities. They consist mainty of: Pay and subsistence of military personnel; repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets of the national military establishment and general purpose public buildings; conduct of foreign affairs; tax collection; interest on the public debt; and operation and administration of other direct Federal programs not elsewhere classified. These outlays are expected to increase by $7.3 billion and will reach $106.2 billion in 1976. Net interest accounts for $2.5 billion of this increase and defense accounts for $2.8 billion. Defense costs have risen primarily due to price increases while net interest outlays will increase because of the large deficits in 1975 and 1976. UNCLASSIFIED Certain outlay estimates cannot be classified precisely into any of the categories described above and allowances are provided for them. This year, a special allowance of $7 billion is provided for energy tax equalization payments to low-income nontaxpayers, State and local governments, and Federal agencies to compensate them for higher energy costs due to the energy tax. Intragovernmental receipts arise as a result of transactions between Government agencies or funds. These transactions occur entirely within Government accounts and are deducted from outlays to avoid double counting. In order to provide a measure of outlays by category, most intragovernmental receipts are allocated to a particular category whenever possible. For example, interest received by the social security and other trust funds is deducted from the interest on the public debt category in order to derive a measure of net interest paid to the public. In addition, Government agency contributions for employee retirement, which help to finance retirement benefits, are deducted as a lump-sum unclassified amount. Proprietary receipts from the public, arising from business-type activities of the Government, are unclassified and are offset against total outlays to highlight the net impact of the budget. RELATIONSHIP TO CAPITAL BUDGET The U.S. Government does not produce a capital budget in the sense of a long-range program for the acquisition of assets, with separate financing of capital outlays. Some foreign governments and some State and local governments fund a portion of their capital expenditures by separate borrowing. They exclude most or all such expenditures from the computation of budget totals, except for annual charges to amortize these capital outlays over a number of years. While this analysis does not provide a precise measure of the difference between capital and current items, it does indicate useful general magnitudes. However, it does not make any allowance for depreciation and obsolescence on existing physical assets, anticipated losses on loan programs, or profit or loss on sales of assets at figures different from their book value. Agencies record such allowances for transactions only where the data will serve program and management needs, as in the case of the public enterprise funds. As a result, this analysis does not estimate the net addition to the value of federally owned assets. SPECIAL ANALYSES 65 Recoverability of outlays.—In general, Government outlays for assets are not expected to be recovered by specific revenues. However, most loans, investment in commodity inventories, the construction of powerplants, and outlays for range and forest improvements on public domain and national forest lands are offset in whole or in part by receipts to the Treasury through repayments and sales, specific charges, or recoveries. Where activities are carried on through revolving funds, such as in the case of most loan programs, receipts are credited directly against disbursements and only the difference is included in the total of outlays in the budget and in this anatysis. All other receipts from the public arising from market-oriented or businesstype activities of the Government are offset against total outlays. Whether recovered by specific receipts or not, investment and developmental outlays for both physical and human capital add to the wealth and income of the Nation, and by helping to expand the tax base, augment the Government's potential future receipts. However, this analysis does not attempt to measure the degree of recoverability of developmental outlays, the potential gain in public receipts that will be forthcoming, or the duration of future benefits and their discounted present value. Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS Loans: Civil: To domestic and private borrowers: Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs Farmers Home Administration: Rural housing insurance Agricultural credit insurance Rural development insurance Other 1 Soil Conservation Service and other 1 Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Resources Administration Office of Education: Higher education Student loan insurance Other Other Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing Production and Mortgage Credit: Federal Housing Administration and Government National Mortgage Association: Federal Housing Administration Special assistance functions Management and liquidating functions and other Community planning and development and other 530-700 O - 75 - 5 -1,013 -108 -67 -215 -39 18 -6 73 -1,314 -487 -116 -6 * 54 279 84 -3 2 199 171 -2 9 240 188 8 1 327 —214 —83 8 298 -64 -71 90 313 -375 -63 -14 1,141 —40 127 -9 1 32 66 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Loans—Continued Civ il—Continued To domestic and private borrowers—Continued Veterans Administration: Loan guaranty revolving fund Direct loans Education loans National service life insurance Other i Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Small Business Administration: Business loans and investment Disaster loans Other agencies Total to domestic and private borrowers To State and local governments: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community planning and development and other District of Columbia Other agencies l Total to State and local governments To foreign borrowers: Funds appropriated to the President: International Development Assistance Special Financing Facility Department of Agriculture: Public Law 480 credit sales Other agencies Total to foreign borrowers National defense: To domestic and private borrowers: Other agencies To foreign borrowers: Funds appropriated to the President: International Security Assistance Total loans 25 -78 —270 -73 80 75 8 100 —56 -83 72 56 9 126 68 23 86 62 83 127 19 65 886 —1,196 229 —76 154 38 31 246 59 26 288 68 115 336 381 581 676 289 2 838 —3 784 1,000 778 —3 873 1,511 2,559 —2 —2 * 326 426 827 2,198 1,075 3,996 446 704 818 36 7 Other financial investments—civil: Investments in quasi-public institutions, trust funds, and international institutions: Funds appropriated to the President: International financial institutions SPECIAL ANALYSES 67 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Public works—sites and direct construction: Civil: Legislative branch: Architect of the Capitol __ United States Tax Court Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Research Service Forest Service: Forest roads and trails Other i Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers: Construction, general Flood control, Mississippi River and tributaries L Trustfunds Other i Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Indian health and other health services Other 1 Department of the Interior: Bureau of Reclamation: Construction and rehabilitation Colorado River Basin project Other 1 National Park Service: Planning and constiuction and other i Bonneville Power Administration: Construction, and operation and maintenance of facilities Bureau of Indian Affairs: Construction of schools and roads_... Otheri Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Acquisition, construction, and improvementsFederal Aviation Administration: Airway system investment and development (Airport and airway trust fund) Other Energy Research and Development Administration: Plant and capital equipment and other l General Services Administration: Public buildings National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Construction of facilities Veterans Administration: Hospitals and other Tennessee Valley Authoiity Other agencies National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military construction Family housing and other Energy Research and Development Administration Total public works—sites and direct construction See footnotes at end of table. 20 9 23 3 7 8 73 64 100 66 58 72 987 82 19 9 1,048 185 22 17 1,109 134 22 11 38 35 62 69 72 73 233 62 17 260 50 45 290 46 76 48 83 83 94 102 113 103 21 129 30 140 27 45 46 52 190 18 237 23 258 20 256 210 320 1 421 —2 75 104 510 92 100 137 955 105 108 184 930 148 1,286 209 124 1,351 276 199 1,583 321 201 5,036 6,054 6,620 7 61 * 68 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Major commodity inventories: Civil: Department of Agriculture; Commodity Credit Corporation: Agricultural commodities Other agencies National defense: Funds appropriated to the President: Expansion of defense production Othei agencies Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total major commodity inventories —364 5 84 1 153 3 —155 16 —6 3 1 —40 * —504 49 155 25 96 82 4 38 104 93 17 50 83 109 17 15,241 70 14, 785 101 16, 600 101 15,518 15,139 16,960 120 203 151 680 * 588 * 442 * 92 28 —440 7 100 40 — 134 40 126 39 —41 53 774 736 828 1,261 1,572 1,597 23,956 24,594 30,146 Major equipment: Civil: Department of Commerce Department of Transportation: Coast Guard and other Energy Research and Development Administration Other agencies1 National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Procurement Energy Research and Development Administration Total major equipment Other physical assets—acquisition and improvement: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Reforestation and range improvements and other '. Department of Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Housing Management Department of the Interior: Land and water conservation Other Energy Research and Development Administration Other agencies --National defense: Energy Research and Development Administration Total other physical assets—acquisition and improvement. Total additions to Federal assets See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 69 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO STATE, LOCAL, AND PRIVATE ASSETS State and local assets: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Other Department of Agriculture: Rural water and waste disposal grants and other rural development Watershed and flood prevention operations and other conservation Department of Commerce: Economic development assistance programs and other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health resources Education Human development Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing management Open space land programs Grants for neighborhood facilities Grants for basic water and sewer facilities New communities assistance Department of the Interior: Land and water conservation Other Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance Department of Transportation: Grants-in-aid for airports (Airport and airway trust fund) _ Federal Highway Administration: Federal-aid highways (trust fund) Other i National Highway Traffic Safety Urban Mass Transportation Environmental Protection Agency: Construction grants Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Other agenciesJ National defense: Department of Defense—Military Total State and local assets Private assets—Civil: Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service: Agricultural conservation program Other Soil Conservation Service: Conservation operations Watershed and flood prevention operations Other Other Department of Commerce: Ship construction See footnotes at end of table. 222 255 1 260 1 37 62 82 105 97 87 198 218 194 256 64 10 307 59 5 258 56 4 80 40 136 1 75 35 140 2 3 151 70 82 150 80 98 160 90 96 243 290 360 4,341 35 1 345 1,553 170 5 41 4,380 49 4,666 47 615 2,300 185 6 46 796 2,300 182 12 54 8,187 9,454 9,946 239 2 67 239 58 165 35 25 28 200 201 67 33 -17 256 40 59 200 62 32 * 315 70 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO STATE, LOCAL, AND PRIVATE ASSETS—Continued Private Assets—Civil—Continued Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health resources. Other National Science Foundation Other agencies.1 Total private assets Total additions to State, local, and private assets 114 67 36 21 129 62 40 23 129 28 75 15 760 1,091 955 8,947 10,545 10,901 50 199 55 223 52 231 567 58 96 162 464 413 1,667 536 205 111 526 844 140 227 111 5,910 12 14 50 4 60 20 569 14 189 685 77 95 184 679 502 1,890 605 207 116 589 1,572 159 145 175 6,688 12 135 67 7 70 28 428 24 237 598 89 103 166 603 437 2,193 349 122 128 550 1,770 107 38 165 6,815 8 54 90 9 74 32 443 65 227 82 35 63 43 87 46 OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES Education, training, and health: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Department of Agriculture: Extension Service and other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health services Indian health Preventive health services National Institutes of Health Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health Health resources Elementary and secondary education School assistance in federally affected areas...-. Emergency school aid Education for the handicapped Occupational, vocational, and adult education Higher education Library resources Educational development Salaries and expenses and other education * Public assistance Other social and rehabilitation services Supplemental security income program Federal disability insurance trust fund Other social security * Howard University Other special institutions Human development Other 1 Department of the Interior: Operation of Indian programs.__ Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance Other See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 71 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAY (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES—Con. Education, training, and health—Continued Civil—Co itinued Department of Labor: Comprehensive manpower assistance Emergency employment assistance Temporary employment assistance Program administration Community service employment for older Americans Veterans Administration: Medical care and other ACTION. Community Services Administration Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities 1 National Science Foundation Smithsonian Institution Other agencies * Intragovernmental transactions (—) National defense: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Total education, training, and health 1,416 598 2 2,752 58 350 62 10 210 99 5 62 156 66 54 79 ___ 1 16,059 19, 720 19,820 207 85 62 23 228 99 78 27 249 110 83 29 102 124 74 79 139 80 1,413 64 97 70 143 1,641 135 55 82 71 184 1,626 128 110 84 66 194 62 68 70 200 282 59 356 45 113 59 168 1,111 212 3,111 96 532 176 543 51 199 1,444 284 3,393 97 570 171 58 156 86 78 48 96 66 44 75 2,645 650 64 223 105 70 183 63 67 104 —10 Research and development: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Research Service 1 Cooperative State Research Service x Forest Service J __ Other 1 Department of Commerce: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: National Institutes of Health Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health Occupational, vocational, adult, and other education National Institute of Education Human development Other 1 ... Department of Housing and Urban Development: Policy development and research and other Department of the Interior: Mines and minerals, geological surveys, and other J Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance and other. Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration J Urban Mass Transportation Administration Other 1 . Energy Research and Development Administration x Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration x Veterans Administration National Science Foundation J Other agencies l See footnotes at end of table. W 44 109 51 162 817 147 3,183 80 539 148 72 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES—Con. Research and development—Continued National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Research, development, test, and evaluation Other ...... Energy Research and Development Administration Total research and development Engineering and natural resources surveys—civil: Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers The Panama Canal___ Department of the Interior: Geological Survey Other Other agencies1 Intragovernmental transactions (—) ___ — Total engineering and natural resources surveys—civil Total other developmental expenditures Total investment-type outlays _ 373 8,582 5 446 405 8,650 6 480 411 9,610 7 543 17,414 18,330 20,692 52 1 55 54 1 1 84 52 67 -26 98 63 77 -24 108 86 76 -29 230 269 296 33,702 38,320 40,807 66,605 73,458 81,855 237 246 162 2,232 77 1,194 26 187 23 121 149 133 22 78 117 6 136 111 84 12 76 165 9 147 377 134 57 80 158 10 Current outlays CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES Agriculture—civil: Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service: Expenses and other Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs__ Other Farmers Home Administration: Salaries and expenses and other * Rural housing insurance Agricultural credit insurance- _ Rural development insurance Agricultural Marketing Service * Other1... Other agencies Total agriculture See footnotes at end of table. 3,173 2,061 1,335 SPECIAL ANALYSES 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Current outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued Business—civil: Department of Commerce: Social and economic statistics Domestic and international business operations and administration 1 Minority business development Patent Office . ... Maritime operating-differential subsidies and other J 1 Other __ Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers The Panama Canal Department of Transportation: Office of the Secretary Coast Guard: Navigation aids and other x Federal Aviation Administration: Operations and other 1 Federal Railroad Administration: Grants to National Railroad Passenger Corporation and other Civil Aeronautics Board: Payments to air carriers Postal Service Small Business Administration: Business loans and investments and other Disaster loan fund Other agencies l Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total business Labor—civil: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Work incentives. Department of the Interior: Mining enforcement and safety Department of Labor: Manpower Administration: Federal unemployment benefits and allowances Grants to States for unemployment insurance and employment services 1 Unemployment trust fund Other Employment standards Occupational safety and health Labor statistics 1 Departmental management Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission Railroad Retirement Board Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total Labor See footnotes at end of table. 55 64 69 51 45 73 263 55 56 61 77 247 64 56 49 83 316 69 285 -10 287 -17 330 -21 1 511 1, 194 * 608 ,285 -1 629 990 154 73 778 442 67 911 406 66 570 171 398 26 —24 126 136 50 -23 100 105 40 -26 4,099 4,440 3,830 232 57 222 67 218 77 19 1,834 226 60 909 29 64 1,237 25 77 102 52 30 74 1,160 29 76 116 58 30 60 6 305 -250 57 69 47 21 42 5 22 1 1,571 54 6 4 -1 3,773 2,185 74 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Current outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued Homeowners and tenants—civil: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing Production and Mortgage Credit: Federal Housing Administration Special assistance functions Other Housing management: Housing payments Payments for operation of low-income housing projects Other --:-—. Federal Insurance Administration Other Federal Home Loan Bank Board Other agencies Total homeowners and tenants —145 256 -8 —94 325 15 —25 760 20 1,776 2,117 2,380 210 1] ._ Veterans—civil: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Payments to social security trust and other funds Veterans Administration: Compensation and pensions Readjustment benefits Medical care General operating expenses Loan guaranty revolving fund National service life insurance trust fund U.S. Government life insurance trust fund Other 1 Other agencies l Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total veterans. 47 4 -352 1 ~38 62 8 -309 2 25 1,591 2,088 3,173 239 240 295 6,633 3,249 2,634 337 23 587 80 -77 44 -264 7,443 3,965 3,071 447 69 608 79 -44 14 -246 7,488 3,530 3,359 451 45 638 80 -52 11 -297 13,486 15,648 15,548 382 246 409 25 319 508 522 27 398 762 481 32 264 48 81 8 -50 -60 93 83 17 -50 558 48 83 15 -50 121 13 -333 2 International aids: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance: Security supporting assistance Indochina postwar reconstruction assistance International development assistance* Contingencies Department of Agriculture: Public Law 480 donations of agricultural commodities Department of State ACTION^ Other agencies Intragovernmental transactions (—) See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 75 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 1975 1976 actual estimate estimate Current outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued International aids—Continued National defense: Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance1 __ Department of Defense—Military: Military construction Military assistance, South Vietnamese forces Total international aids 3,752 4,920 6,081 87 73 515 80 975 5,253 6,967 9,463 250 275 250 234 784 2,845 751 50 160 488 3,672 1,323 120 3 43 3,643 1,649 18 6 6,804 108 63 95 965 1,875 718 6,591 94 67 73 938 4,252 988 6,585 97 72 45 960 4,900 1,015 1 15,541 19,041 19,287 84 99 111 101 124 40 56 112 161 —35 48 44 117 175 25 53 79 2, 782 286 712 152 256 406 34 58 3,127 408 861 255 277 411 26 118 3,770 504 905 277 316 508 13 101 Welfare aids—civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Disaster relief Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs Funds for strengthening markets, income, and supply Food stamp program Grants for child food assistance Special milk program Food donations program Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Public assistance Work incentives Other social and rehabilitation services Assistance to refugees in the United States Special benefits for disabled coal miners Supplemental security income program Human development Departmental management Total welfare aids Other aids and special services—civil: Department of Commerce: Economic development and other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services Administration: Health services Indian health ____ Health maintenance organization loan and loan guarantee, Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Health Resources Administration Social Security Administration: Payments to social security trust and other funds Supplemental security income program Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Other Departmental management and other * See footnotes at end of table. 76 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 ctual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Current outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued Other aids and special services—civil—Continued Department of Housing and Urban Development: Comprehensive planning grants Model cities programs Urban renewal fund—capital grants Other Departmental management and other Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Operation of Indian programs Miscellaneous appropriations Miscellaneous trust funds Other i Department of Transportation: Federal Highway Administration: Federal-aid highways and other trust funds National Highway Traffic Safety Administration K _. I Other Community Services Administration Legal Services Corporation PostalService Other agencies Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total other aids and special services Total current expenses and aids and special services 99 468 1,211 35 46 107 280 1,200 39 71 60 230 1,200 43 69 212 74 264 24 270 84 158 16 294 83 155 7 116 129 38 570 920 92 —3,059 147 120 152 492 39 920 119 —3,297 155 118 252 374 63 920 118 —3,875 6,329 6,832 7, 221 51,044 60,849 62,042 47,847 6,158 7,806 2,874 50 2,654 54,718 7,636 9,901 3, 551 —315 65 2,999 62,864 9,083 11,380 4,145 —4,573 69 3,238 67,389 78,555 86,206 5,139 11,697 2,100 14,671 5,139 11,697 16,771 RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL INSURANCE BENEFITS Insurance benefits—civil: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Other social security trust funds Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund Railroad Retirement Board (trust fund) Total insurance benefits Unemployment benefits: Civil: Department of Labor: Manpower Administration: Advances to the Federal unemployment benefits and allowances Unemployment trust fund Total unemployment benefits See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 77 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Currrent outlays—Continued RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL INSURANCE BENEFITS—Continued Other retirement and social insurance benefits—civil: Department of State: Foreign Service retirement and disability trust fund Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability trust fund Other agencies Intragovemmental transactions (—) 39 54 64 5,669 1 —15 7,205 1 —22 7,974 1 —7 Total other retirement and social insurance benefits 5, 694 7,238 8,032 78,222 97,490 111,009 353 401 343 199 1 248 1 268 1 103 107 179 37 34 94 612 -177 86 * 144 128 229 -90 42 97 6 -262 122 126 152 241 -191 38 108 2 -331 117 22,429 614 25,603 742 71 -1 82 * 28,174 890 148 90 24,740 27,493 30,178 207 307 342 330 376 381 145 173 189 Total retirement and social insurance benefits OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service l Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers Miscellaneous accounts Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management J Bureau of Reclamation * National Park Service J Bonneville Power Administration Other Energy Research and Development Administration General Services Administration: Public buildings Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies * Intragovemmental transactions (—) National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Operation and maintenance Family housing Naval Petroleum Reserve Energy Research and Development Administration General Services Administration Total repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets. _ Regulation and control—civil: The Judiciary 1 Department of Agriculture: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and other * Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Food and Drug Administration and other See footnotes at end of table. 78 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Currrent outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Regulation and control—civil—Continued Department of Justice: General administration Legal activities Federal Bureau of Investigation Immigration and Naturalization Service Federal Prison System 1 Law Enforcement Assistance Administration Drug Enforcement Administration Department of Transportation: Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration Other Department of the Treasuiy: Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms Customs Service 1 Internal Revenue Service Secret Service Other 1 Environmental Protection Agency 1 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Interstate Commerce Commission National Labor Relations Board Nuclear Regulatory Commission Other agencies * Total regulation and control 17 179 368 149 133 566 91 22 215 421 174 155 619 130 82 83 13 103 90 19 117 92 25 79 50 52 67 -2 206 -224 38 80 208 96 70 48 83 9 281 -630 47 64 139 284 102 68 49 95 6 345 -699 50 70 198 304 2,972 3,296 3,636 335 226 52 51 214 29 362 274 54 50 240 14 418 295 71 66 265 907 994 1,131 113 133 151 55 21 235 445 208 176 670 148 Other operation and administration: Civil: International activities: Department of State: Administration of foreign affairs 1 International organizations and conferences 1 Educational exchange and other * Board for International Broadcasting United States Information Agency l Other agencies Total international activities Federal financial activities: Legislative branch: Gendal Accounting Office and other._. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services Administration Social Security Administration: Supplemental security income program Department of the Treasury: Bureau of Government Financial Operations l Customs Service Bureau of the Public Debt Internal Revenue Service Other See footnotes at end of table. 15 35 82 -82 89 185 76 1,222 39 113 244 100 1,537 62 123 256 96 1,577 74 SPECIAL ANALYSES 79 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Current outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Other operation and administration—Continued Civil—Con tinued Federal financial activities—Continued Other agencies Total Federal financial activities Other direct Federal programs: Legislative branch * Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President: Economic stabilization activities and other Department of Commerce: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other 1 Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers The Panama Canal Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Departmental management and other Department of the Interior _ Department of the Treasury: Bureau of Government Financial Operations and other i Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration 1 Civil Service Commission: Payment to civil service retirement and disability fund_ _ Employees life insurance fund Employees health benefits fund Salaries and expenses Other* Federal Energy Administration Other agencies 1 Total other direct Federal programs 6 1 2 1,812 2,144 2,280 457 58 535 101 628 73 73 5 1 257 272 285 34 59 40 64 43 60 66 80 81 117 96 135 112 104 196 195 121 181 210 133 171 —156 —62 73 6 33 36 363 —278 —38 93 13 127 76 —361 —6 96 12 208 90 1,427 2,068 1,874 Retirement, unemployment, and accident compensation for Federal employees: Department of Labor: Federal unemployment benefits and allowances Special benefits . Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Retired pay_ Civil Service Commission: Government payment for annuitants, employees health benefits.... _. Payment to civil service retirement and disability fund.. Intragovemmental transactions (—) Other agencies 343 107 86 331 165 105 384 201 116 163 2,384 —2,421 38 252 3,081 —3,487 45 339 4, 089 —4,135 48 Total retirement, unemployment, and accident compensation for Federal employees 700 492 1,042 See footnotes at end of table. 80 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table D-3.INVESTMENT,OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 1975 1976 Current outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Other operation and administration—Continued Civil—Continued Shared revenues and grants-in-aid: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service Department of Housing and Urban Development: Commuunity development grants Department of the Interior: Land management, territorial affairs, and other Department of the Treasury: Customs Service Internal Revenue Service State and local government fiscal assistance trust fund District of Columbia Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies 121 119 225 1,300 179 247 293 95 101 6,106 187 31 31 213 116 6,176 221 37 33 218 118 6,301 254 50 34 6,844 7,398 8,687 11,690 13,095 15,013 23,355 5,128 49 63 65 269 -10 60 13 —7 24,631 6,281 66 72 74 142 36 47 16 —6 24,588 6,884 71 49 72 —491 5 48 39 —6 Total other operation and administration, national defense.. 28,984 31,359 31,259 Total other operation and administration 40,674 44,454 46,272 29,319 32,900 36,000 Total shared revenues and grants-in-aid Total other operation and administration, civil National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Retired military personnel._ Operation and maintenance Family housing Civil defense Revolving and management funds Other 1 Selective Service System f Other agencies Intragovernmental transactions (—) _. Interest: On public debt Other interest: On refunds: Department of the Treasury On uninvested funds: Department of the Treasury I ntragovernmental transactions: special fund (—) Total other interest Intragovernmental transactions (—): I nterest on Government capital in enterprises (—) Interest received by trust funds ( - ) _ _ Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies: Interest on Government capital in enterprises (—) See footnotes at end of table. 115 220 6 * 239 8 * 390 8 * 226 247 398 —1,119 -6,583 —155 —1,254 -7,769 — 1,229 -8,305 —333 —436 SPECIAL ANALYSES 81 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1974 1975 1976 Current outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Interest—Continued Proprietary receipts from the public (—) __ Total net interest Total other services and current operating expenses _ —198 —231 —314 21,490 23,560 26,114 89,875 98,804 106,200 __ 1,194 141 National defense allowances: Department of Defense—Military: Allowances: Civilian and military pay raises Other legislation _ Total national defense allowances Total current outlays... 1,335 219,244 257,181 279,686 500 200 7,000 550 500 -2,677 -642 -14,035 -2,960 -1,110 -13,784 -3,109 -779 -17,230 268,392 313,446 349,372 UNCLASSIFIED Allowances for: Energy tax equalization payments Civilian agency pay raises Contingencies Employer share, employee retirement: Interfund transactions ( - ) Receipts from off-budget Federal agencies(-) Proprietary receipts from the public ( - ) Total budget outlays * Less than $500,000. Includes both Federal funds and trust funds. 1 530-700 O - 75 - I SPECIAL ANALYSIS E FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS A significant part of the Federal Government's assistance to the public occurs through credit programs. Credit assistance is provided in a number of ways. Direct loans are made by Federal agencies whose activities are shown in budget totals, by Federal agencies outside the budget and by Government-sponsored, privately owned credit enterprises. Federal Government agencies also guarantee or insure private loans. Both explicit and implicit interest rate subsidies are provided. And, serving as intermediaries, government-sponsored credit enterprises improve access to credit markets for certain borrowers. Because of the complex institutional arrangements that have evolved, several forms of credit assistance are frequently combined in a single credit program, and sometimes a single transaction is aided by two or more programs. This analysis is intended to serve as a basic factual resource rather than as an evaluation of programs and policies. Questions of great analytical difficulty remain unanswered about what are the effects of credit assistance and who benefits by what amounts. The discussion of interest subsidies later in this analysis is one approach to the evaluation of some aspects of Federal credit programs. Constraints on space require consolidation of information relating to budget accounts and programs in this analysis. Greater detail is available elsewhere. The Treasury Bulletin provides data on outstanding direct and guaranteed loans in the most recently completed1 fiscal year or quarter for both accounts and programs within accounts. Part IV of the Budget Appendix contains tables displaying disbursements, repayments and net outlays for each budget account containing direct loan transactions. TRENDS AND DIRECTIONS The total amount of credit provided under Federal auspices has risen rapidly during the past decade, both from the expansion of existing programs and the initiation of new ones. Table E - l summarizes data on Federal participation in domestic credit markets over the last decade. In 1965, funds advanced in U.S. credit markets to nonfinancial sectors totaled $69.3 billion. Of this, $8.9 billion, or 13% was advanced under the auspices of one or more Federal credit programs. In 1970, total funds advanced had risen to $85.3 billion, and credit advanced under Federal auspices had risen to $17.4 billion, or 20% of the total. Since that time, the rate of Federal participation in credit advanced has declined to the levels of the late 1960's, about 15%. The reduction in Federal participation in recent years is more nearly a i See table GA 11-2, Treasury Bulletin. 82 Table E-l. FEDERAL PARTICIPATION IN DOMESTIC CREDIT MARKETS (billions of dollars) Actual Total funds advanced in U.S. credit markets to nonfinancial sectors 1 (excluding equities) Advanced under Federal auspices Federal participation rate (percent) Total funds raised in U.S. credit markets by nonfinancial sectors1 Raised under Federal auspices2 Federal participation rate (percent) Funds raised through marketable securities Market total (including CD's) 6 Raised under Federal auspices 4 Federal participation rate (percent) Market total (excluding CD's) 6 Raised under Federal auspices 4 Federal participation rate (percent) 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Federal Reserve Board Estimates from table E-10. Includes open market paper and Includes borrowing by sponsored Not estimated. CD's are negotiable commercial 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 69.3 8.9 13 73.3 10.1 14 58.7 5.8 10 92.5 14.9 16 95.8 15.0 16 69.3 10.2 15 73.3 8.7 12 58.7 1.1 2 92.5 31.3 34 25.6 6.1 24 29.0 6.5 22 27.7 .6 2 21.9 6.1 28 26.0 6.5 25 26.9 .6 2 1970 Estimates 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 85.3 17.4 20 111.8 16.5 15 143.6 22.0 15 185.1 26.1 14 177.2 26.6 15 (5) 31.3 95.8 11.3 12 85.3 16.4 19 111.8 32.3 29 143.6 39.7 28 185.1 46.9 25 177.2 24.1 14 52.2 27.2 52 36.5 6.3 17 52.2 18.1 35 72.7 25.1 35 79.4 30.8 39 86.9 41.0 47 95.7 25.1 26 52.1 27.2 52 40.5 6.3 16 53.3 18.1 34 58.3 25.1 43 72.1 30.8 43 63.1 41.0 65 74.9 25.1 34 Flow of Funds Statement (fiscal year data). bonds sold by financial intermediaries (compiled from FRB Flow of Funds data). enterprises and Federal Government plus all guaranteed loans in form of security market issues. bank certificates of deposit of $100 thousand and over. 1976 (5) 28.7 (5) 78.9 S.4 (5) 80.0 (5) (5) 80.0 62.4 84 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 measure of the explosive growth in total credit advanced than a slowing of Federal activity. Since 1970 total credit advanced has grown at an average annual rate of more than 20% compared with an average annual rate of growth of about 4% in the years 196570.2 By comparison, funds advanced under Federal auspices during the same periods grew at average annual rates of 11% and 14%, respectively. Another way to evaluate the Federal Government's impact on credit markets is to compare funds raised under Federal auspices, i.e., Federal and federally-assisted borrowing, to total funds raised in U.S. credit markets by nonfinancial sectors. Funds raised under Federal auspices, including those raised under Federal credit programs and those borrowed to finance deficits in the U.S. budget, accounted for approximately 14% of total funds raised in 1974, but are expected to rise rapidly to finance the deficits now budgeted for 1975 and 1976. The credit component of the budget has become a less useful indicator of Federal credit activities. In part this has occurred as a result of the substitution of loan guarantee programs for direct loan programs. This greater dependence on loan guarantee programs, in which private credit markets are relied upon to provide the necessary capital while the Government assumes some or all of the risks normally borne by lenders, reduces direct Federal outlays for a given level of assisted loans. Federal credit assistance has also been moved off of the budget through the creation of Federal agencies that are, by statute, outside the budget, and of enterprises which are privately owned, but Government-sponsored. A significant development of 1974 was the establishment of the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). This new debt management facility, authorized by Public Law 93-244 enacted December 29, 1973, has authority to purchase any obligation issued, sold, or guaranteed by a Federal agency. The bank's objective is to provide more efficient financing for these obligations, thereby reducing or eliminating unnecessary costs to the Government. The FFB is authorized to borrow up to $15 billion directly from the market and to borrow from the Treasury without stipulated limit. Through January 3, 1975, FFB had borrowed $3.0 billion from the Treasury, and $1.5 billion through short-term notes placed directly with the public.3 The FFB purchase of guaranteed loan issues, if continued, will reverse the earlier trend of increased reliance upon private credit facilities. It could also increase demands for credit under Federal guarantee programs because FFB can lend at interest rates generally lower than those available to guaranteed borrowers in private credit markets. Table E-2 details FFB purchases of obligations. During 1975, FFB purchases are expected to total over $13 billion of which approximately $3.6 billion will be used for the temporary financing of mortgage loans acquired under the GNMA tandem plan. 2 Total credit advanced is reflected in the outlays of Government-sponsored enterprises as discussed in Part 2 of the Budget. 3 Because it was created as an off-budget agency, the 1976 budget of the FFB is published along with budgets of other off-budget agencies in Part IV of the Budget Appendix. SPECIAL ANALYSES 85 Table E-2. FFB NET PURCHASES OF OBLIGATIONS (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Agency loan asset sales! Guaranteed loans 2 100 Total loan purchases Agency debt: 2 On budget agencies Off-budget agencies 102 .__ Total net purchases of obligations 3 _ 500 602 1975 estimate 8,112 2,467 10,579 780 2,207 13,566 1976 estimate 2,482 3,292 5,774 750 3,415 9,939 1 Direct loans sold from agency portfolios are normally guaranteed at time of sale and reappear in 2guaranteed loan tables. These loans are intergovernmental debt transactions and are not loan outlays for the purposes of 3 the credit analysis. Net of repayments received by FFB. Another significant credit development during 1974 and 1975 has been a large increase in credit assistance to housing. Restrictive monetary policies substantially reduced the supply of credit available to traditional mortgage lenders, triggering a drastic decline in residential housing construction. The Federal Government attempted to mitigate this impact through four special programs designed to provide an assured source of financing for individual mortgage loans and to reduce the cost of home buying. The Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) was authorized to purchase for later resale to private investors $9.9 billion of federally backed mortgages carrying below-market interest rates under the FHA-VA tandem plan. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation made commitments to purchase $3 billion of residential mortgages with below-market interest rates, and was authorized to finance the purchase of these mortgages with Treasury borrowing, if necessary. The Federal Home Loan Bank System is making available $4 billion at subsidized interest rates to savings and loan associations in order to facilitate additional mortgage lending. And GNMA has been authorized to purchase $6 billion in conventional (nonfederally insured) mortgages carrying below-market interest rates, using authority provided by the Emergency Home Purchase Assistance Act of 1974. The gross effect of these special programs will be to support nearly $23 billion in loans financing the construction or purchase of housing over and above established housing credit programs. The net addition to housing credit will undoubtedly be less than $23 billion. DIRECT LOANS Direct loans are made by Federal agencies whether or not they are included in the budget totals. They are financed by receipts or borrowings of the Treasury or the agency itself. The major Federal programs that provide direct loans are identified in tables E-3 and E-4. Loan outlays of Federal agencies (which are defined net of repayments) are reflected in budget outlays, and are accounted for in the budget surplus or deficit. However, in recent years a number of 86 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table E-3. DIRECT LOAN COMMITMENTS AND GROSS DISBURSEMENTS (in millions of dollars) Commitments Agency or program Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Special financing facility Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration Commodity Credit Corporation Public Law 480 long-term export credits . Commerce: Economic Development Administration Health, Education, and Welfare: Health programs Education programs Housi g nd Urban Development: Low-rent public housing Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association: FHA/VA tandem plan Conventional tandem plan Other Urban renewal fund Other loans Interior Transportation Treasury Veterans Administration: Housing loans Insurance policy loans District of Columbia Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.1 Federal Home Loan Bank Board Small Business Administration: Business and investment loans Disaster loans Other agencies and programs Total budget agencies Off-budget direct loans: Export-Import Bank Rural Electrification Administration.. Rural Telephone Bank ____ H U D : Housing for the elderly 1 Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Federal Financing Bank 2 U.S. Railway Association Environmental Financing Authority. _ Total off-budget agencies Grand total 1974 actual Gross disbursements 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 878 522 353 680 509 595 1,000 430 646 507 770 896 800 1.000 3,329 1,554 3,942 1,415 3,681 1,769 3,893 1,550 4,602 1,415 4,251 1,769 566 931 863 578 931 863 18 18 55 32 43 36 127 412 117 517 59 248 100 378 128 392 117 478 32 521 161 569 52 576 623 361 675 345 650 380 3,027 6,450 6,000 247 1,448 4,300 2,000 ....... 600 56 41 85 843 78 16 47 4,430 600 28 901 153 35 29 416 237 288 322 147 154 367 265 246 100 2,508 385 237 288 5 409 265 246 100 2,508 235 369 56 199 200 65 216 160 39 292 201 31 354 212 51 400 183 15 13,351 26,178 11,470 12,254 20,087 19,791 4,905 758 163 5,570 900 160 34 1,723 11,500 100 60 5,375 758 180 175 2,538 802 99 _. 3,342 873 175 100 7,000 450 102 3,032 869 160 2 1,723 8,217 100 60 * 843 56 18 23 360 147 154 128 901 67 42 26 8 -1 600 43 51 41 8 5,888 450 5,954 20,047 13,938 3,541 14,163 10,828 19,205 46,225 25,408 15,795 34,250 30,619 'Less than $0.5 million. 1 This represents loan assets acquired from the receivership of Franklin National Bank, paid for by assumption of the bank's loan from the Federal Reserve System. It was excluded from the budget outlays by FDIC because it was a noncash receivership transaction. 2 Excludes FFB loans to Federal agencies (whether to on- or off-budget agencies) where these are debt transactions. See table E-2 for FFB total activity. SPECIAL ANALYSES 87 Table E-4. NET DIRECT LOAN OUTLAYS AND LOANS OUTSTANDING (in millions of dollars) Net loan outlays Agency or program 1974 actual Outstanding 1975 1976 eatimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance 258 329 674 1,469 1,798 2,472 International development assistance 562 610 591 10,994 11,604 12,195 Special financing facility . 1,000 1,000 Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration 1,219 - 1 , 9 2 3 -242 3,217 1,294 1,052 Commodity Credit Corporation -1,013 -108 -67 1,708 1,600 1,533 Public Law 480 long-term export credits 289 838 778 3,438 4,276 5,055 Commerce: Economic Development Administration 14 21 15 476 497 510 Health, Education, and Welfare: Health programs 69 72 39 422 495 534 Education programs 355 365 433 2,942 3,307 3,740 Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing 21 _ _ 71 71 71 Federal Housing Administration..__ 327 298 313 1,686 1,984 2,296 Government National Mortgage Association: FHA/VA tandem plan -92 . 39 -269 283 322 53 Conventional tandem plan Other -187 -153 -144 3,199 3,045 2,901 Urban renewal fund -83 50 50 90 140 190 Other loans -25 51 -63 4,510 4,042 3,978 Interior... 12 31 43 247 279 321 Transportation 46 29 41 171 200 241 Treasury -137 -179 -169 3,908 3,729 3,560 Veterans Administration: Housingloans -54 -343 -139 1,769 1,426 1,287 Insurance policy loans 42 163 137 1,090 1,253 1,389 District of Columbia 141 171 236 828 999 1,235 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 100 100 100 Federal Home Loan Bank Board -20 -2 * 103 101 101 Small Business Administration: Business and investment loans 126 86 127 1,531 1,618 1,745 Disaster loans 68 62 19 1,340 1,402 1,421 Other agencies and programs -9 17 -19 552 568 550 Total budget agencies Off-budget direct loans Export-Import Bank Rural Electrification Administration... Rural Telephone Bank HUD: Housing for the elderly ! Federal Deposit Insurance Corpora- 1,929 614 1,325 629 99 1,673 663 160 -3 102 tion* Federal Financing Bank 3 U.S. Railway Association Environmental Financing Authority. _ 3,372 46,132 46,227 49,599 1,802 638 173 94 7,911 7,196 144 9,584 7,859 304 516 1,723 1,723 10,579 100 60 5,774 444 102 10,681 100 60 16,455 544 60 1,723 11,385 8,497 477 609 Total off-budget agencies 2,155 14,955 8,925 15,353 30,827 39,750 Grand total 4,084 15,569 12,297 61,485 77,054 89,349 *Less than $0.5 million. 12 Transferred off-budget effective August 31, 1974, with outstanding loan balance of $519 million. See footnote 1, table E - 3 . 3 See footnote 2, table E - 3 . 88 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 direct-lending agencies have been placed off-budget under provisions of law, hence do not enter into the budget. In some instances, their activities are not counted against the public debt ceiling. Since their effects are identical to those of direct loan programs included in the budget, they are also included in this analysis. Repayments of outstanding loans are not classified as receipts in the budget, but are offset against new loan disbursements for loan revolving accounts and against general outlays in the case of nonrevolving accounts. For this reason, the outlays of loan programs understate the level of new lending activity. Gross loan disbursements, which are shown in table 4 E-3, provide a more complete measure of program activity levels. Tables E-3 and E-4 provide data on direct loan activity by major agency and program.5 Table E-3 reports loan commitments and disbursements for 1974-76. Commitments to make direct loans tend to forecast future financial flows and the economic activities they facilitate because commitments are often made in advance of the time when funds are actually disbursed. An apparent anomoly occurs in the relationship between commitments and disbursements for lowrent public housing and urban renewal notes. Disbursements are higher than commitments because they include short-term interim construction financing notes which are "rolled over" several times, while commitments are counted only once. Direct loan disbursements by Federal budget agencies during 1975 and 1976 are expected to be almost double the level of 1974, principally as a result of the special assistance given to credit programs in support of housing, discussed earlier. The "special financing facility/' listed under Funds appropriated to the President, shows estimated 1976 commitments and disbursements of $1 billion in support of the creation of an international fund to help industrialized nations meet financial demands of higher energy costs. The bottom panels of tables E-3 and E-4 detail the direct lending activity of off-budget Federal agencies. The major change in total disbursements over the 3-year period is attributable almost exclusively to the expanding activities of the Federal Financing Bank, also noted earlier. Table E-4 shows net changes in direct loan programs, and outstanding loan levels for 1974-76. Wide fluctuations in total net loan outlays of budget agencies are primarily due to the initial disbursements of the special financing facility, and to wide swings in net disbursements of the Farmers Home Administration program. The large bulge in net loan outlays of off-budget agencies reflects initial activity of 4 Some direct loan disbursements, in fact, support guaranteed loan programs. This occurs because direct loan outlays are established when claims are paid under guaranteed programs and the Government receives either the original loan or the collateral. 5 Because loan disbursements and repayments in foreign currencies are not included in the budget, the tables in this analysis include only data on loans that are both disbursed and repayable in dollars. Government agency direct loan transactions disbursed or repayable in foreign currencies (in millions of dollars) are: 1974 1975 1976 Outstanding, start of year Disbursements (dollar equivalents) Repayments—dollars Repayments—local currencies Net disbursements Adjustments Outstanding, end of year 5,244 8 —2 —2,240 -2,234 —216 2,795 6 —3 —144 -141 2,654 —3 —140 -143 2,795 2,654 2,511 SPECIAL ANALYSES 89 the Federal Financing Bank. The total of loans outstanding, both on- and off-budget, will continue to grow by about $10 billion a year in 1975 and 1976, in sharp contrast to the very stable total levels of the years 1971-73. Loan repayments and net loan disbursements reflect sales of direct loan assets as well as actual loan repayments and prepayments. Table E-5 identifies the major loan sales within the repayment totals. Prior to 1974 most loan sales were to private investors or to FNMA. Many sales are now being directed to the FFB. Table E-5. DIRECT LOAN ASSET SALES AND REPAYMENTS (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Loan sales: Farmers Home Administration: Certificates of beneficial ownership Other loans Housing and Urban Development, GNMA: FHA/VA tandem plan Conventional tandem plan VA housing loans Health, Education, and Welfare: Medical facilities loans Health maintenance loans Small Business Administration Subtotal, loan sales Loan repayments and prepayments Total repayment credits, budget agencies Memos: Sales to FFB (included above) Farmers Home repurchases Off-budget loan sales: Export-Import Bink 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 828 1,343 5,406 386 3,441 1,503 209 4,372 600 568 4,550 2,000 378 28 53 100 45 30 100 3,911 11,485 10,544 6,414 7,988 5,874 10,325 19,473 16,418 2 1,201 25 8,117 900 25 2,586 650 25 GUARANTEED LOANS Guaranteed loans are leans made or held by private and State and local government lenders for which the Federal Government assumes part or all of customary credit risks. The major agencies and programs making loan guarantees are shown in tables E-6 and E-7. These loans include private loans under a few programs on which the Government pays a significant share of the interest costs, even though principal repayments are not assured. Federal long-term direct leases, and guarantees of private leases, are also classed as guarantees of the underlying credit. In some cases the Government guarantees less than 100% of the principal amount of the loan, but tables E-6 and E-7 measure the full principal amount of the loan, not just the Government's contingent liability. 90 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table E-6. LOAN GUARANTEE COMMITMENTS AND LOANS GUARANTEED (in millions of dollars) Commitments Agency or program 1974 actual Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration Farmers Home Administration Commerce: Maritime Administration. _ Health, Education, and Welfare: Health programs Guarantees of SLMA obligations K _ Other education programs Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing 2 Federal Housing Administration.. Urban renewal loans 2 New communities fund College housing GNMA mortgage backed securities 1 Interior Transportation For: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority General Services Administration Veterans Administration: Housing loans Emergency Loan Guarantee Board Environmental Prot ection Agency Export-Import Bank Small Business Administration Other agencies and programs Total (gross) Less secondary guarantees 1 Total, primary guarantees Less guaranteed loans acquired for direct loan portfolios: By budget agencies, GNMA By off-budget Federal agencies: Environmental Financing Author- ity—_ 1976 estimate 518 519 513 116 272 275 8 50 45 84 99 128 974 2,392 1,266 1,386 8,156 1,389 1,446 3,881 981 2,176 488 329 6,806 1,588 926 3,501 1,697 514 250 1,160 402 40 1,400 130 335 1,760 528 250 1,520 382 40 1,690 521 335 1,786 289 5,638 58 43 1,446 5,102 950 32 471 6,093 5,100 46 50 7,500 43 500 """172 8,400 5,663 1,069 30 100 5,100 46 331 9,800 7,731 348 88 4,125 7,295 5,712 1,407 54 75 4,125 375 221 177 412 160 161 375 221 177 412 160 161 7,760 9,403 10,072 9,484 Total primary guaranteed loans (adjusted) 20 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 7,500 43 585 60 12,025 1,363 10 13,375 1,710 5 3,473 1,802 4 8,876 30 60 3,721 1,363 190 35,276 4,375 49,521 4,540 49,200 5,835 37,836 4,375 46,775 4,540 50,865 5,835 30,901 44,981 43,365 33,461 42,235 45,030 1,532 4,458 4,300 1,532 4,458 4,300 102 60 10,710 5,774 102 5,282 6,495 7,707 5,351 5,435 4,044 314 292 292 314 7A 70 7,879 1,803 4 _ Federal Financing Bank._ __ By federally sponsored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Student Loan Marketing Association Loan 1975 estimate 292 144 23,549 292 146 22,820 4,081 1,710 5 60 10,710 "5,"774 335 144 146 335 24,935 26,040 21,134 30,263 91 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table E-7. NET LOANS GUARANTEED AND LOANS OUTSTANDING (In millions of dollars) Agency or program Outstanding Net loans guaranteed 1974 1975 Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance.-.54 202 International development assistance 78 93 Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration329 Farmers Home Administration ._ 323 5,228 Commerce: Maritime Administration-. 406 1,488 Health, Education, and Welfare: Health programs 528 382 Guarantees of SLMA obligations K. 250 40 Other education programs 1,148 677 Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing 658 1,259 Federal Housing Administration-.. -1,565 -1,747 Urban renewal loans 188 -132 New communities fund.... 54 30 College housing 75 100 1 GNMA mortgage backed securities 3,366 3,966 Interior 43 Transportation 165 328 For: Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority 375 177 General Services Administration 220 410 VeteransAdministration:Housingloans. 5,727 4,179 Emergency Loan Guarantee Board-__ 70 30 Environmental Protection Agency 60 Export-Import Bank 694 780 Small Business Administration 914 728 Other agencies and programs -5 180 1976 1974 1975 1976 istimate 200 298 500 700 119 519 612 731 926 1,886 1,581 9,759 1,666 329 14,987 3,154 1,256 16,873 4,753 521 335 1,058 575 250 5,884 957 290 5,561 1,478 625 7,618 1,290 -253 -653 88 12,441 85,312 3,839 252 778 12,879 13,699 83,565 3,707 282 878 16,845 43 681 14,990 83,312 3,054 371 878 23,627 78 1,157 997 1,219 57,074 250 60 4,222 4,748 311 1,157 1,378 61,629 220 60 5,062 5,787 306 237,207 21,667 6,782 34 583 352 160 159 4,555 -30 820 809 52,895 220 840 1,040 -5 3,443 4,019 130 Total (gross) Less secondary guarantees * 13,724 3,616 18,831 3,406 21,217 197,159 215,990 5,132 13,129 16,535 Total primary guarantees Less guaranteed loans acquired for direct loan portfolios: By budget agencies: GNMA By off-budget Federal agencies: Environmental Financing Authority Federal Financing Bank By federally sponsored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Student Loan Marketing Association 10,108 15,425 16,085 184,030 199,455 215,540 -279 -114 -413 3,482 3,367 2,954 102 60 10,579 5,774 102 60 10,681 60 16,455 3,726 3,722 2,406 25,251 28,973 31,379 168 207 287 1,869 2,076 2,363 144 146 335 144 290 625 6,247 825 7,696 153,182 154,008 161,704 Total primary guaranteed loans (adjusted) 1 HEW guarantees of SLMA obligations, and GNMA guarantees of private securities backed by FHA and VA-guaranteed mortgages result in double counting since underlying portfolio loans are also guaranteed. These are labeled in this table as secondary guarantees. GNMA also will guarantee securities backed by conventional mortgages in 1975 and 1976, and these are not deducted. 92 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table E-8. LOAN COMMITMENTS AND GROSS DISBURSEMENTS OF FEDERALLY SPONSORED CREDIT INTERMEDIARIES (in millions of dollars) Commitments 1974 actual Student Loan Marketing Association.. Federal National Mortgage Association i___ Farm Credit System: Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks___ Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank System: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation: * Corporation accounts Participation certificate pool 2 —Total Less secondary funds advanced from Federal sources: SLMAfromFFB FHLMCfromFHLBB.Total primary lending Gross disbursements 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 144 146 335 144 146 335 5.883 7,910 10.140 6.368 6,290 5.413 6,821 9,166 3,643 7,396 10.443 3.953 7,823 12.001 4,079 6.821 9.166 3,643 7,396 10,443 3,953 7.823 12,001 4,079 11,016 11,348 7.518 11.016 11,348 7,518 3,781 38 5.000 _ 3.900 600 1.272 38 4.694 3.690 600 40,491 46,196 46,396 38,468 44,270 41,459 100 3,000 190 335 100 190 2,500 335 37,391 46,006 46,061 38,368 41,580 41,124 Data on loan guarantees in tables E-6 and E-7 are comparable to tables E-3 and E-4 for direct loans.6 As with direct loans, the data in table E-6 on commitments permits some forecasting of future gurantee activity. It also gives some insight into program-by-program variations in the rates at which commitments are converted into guarantees. Guaranteed loans, like off-budget direct loans, are not reflected in the budget at the time credit is extended. Budget impacts from loan guarantee programs, excepting additional subsidies and administrative costs, occur only when defaults require the Federal Government to pay lenders' claims. Defaults for older guaranteed loan programs have been relatively low, since older programs involved principally guarantees with liens on property. Newer programs generate higher risks because little or no collateral is pledged, and, as a result, they are experiencing much higher default rates. Table E-7 summarizes the net changes in guaranteed loans and the total dollar value of guaranteed loans outstanding at the end of 1974-76 by agency and program. Total net guaranteed loans are expected to grow at a rapid pace, up to almost $20 billion during 1976. However, the growth is much less spectacular after adjustments have been made for multiple guarantees of single loans, and for the conversion of guaranteed loans to direct loans of off-budget agencies. During the 1974-76 period, the FFB will play a major role in this conversion. Appropriate adjustments are made in tables E-6 and E-7. 6 Adjustments to eliminate double counting have been made in the data shown in tables E-6 and E-7 to make possible the aggregation of guaranteed loans with other forms of Federal credit assistance. Adjustments are required where the same credit extension is guaranteed twice, and where guaranteed loans are converted to direct loans. Additional adjustments are made for double counting in tables E-8 and E— 9 for Government-sponsored credit enterprises. SPECIAL ANALYSES 93 Table E-9. NET CREDIT ADVANCED AND NET CREDIT RAISED BY FEDERALLY SPONSORED CREDIT INTERMEDIARIES (in millions of dollars) Net change 1974 actual Outstanding 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 146 335 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate LENDING (Funds advanced) Student Loan Marketing Association. Federal National Mortgage Association 1 Farm Credit System: Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks.. Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank System: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation:1 Corporation accounts Participation certificate p o o l 2 . . . 144 144 290 625 4,756 4,646 3,491 25,828 30,474 33,965 8 1,529 2,282 312 1,351 2,219 275 1,495 2,165 2,733 8,481 12,400 3,045 9,832 14,619 3,320 11,327 16,784 6,524 2.106 -2,482 17,703 19,809 17,327 1.134 -18 4,402 -55 3,277 475 3,091 780 7,494 725 10,771 1,200 Total lending (unadjusted).__ Less secondary funds advanced from Federal accounts: SLMAfromFFB FHLMC from FHLBB 16,359 15,127 9,031 71,160 86,288 95,319 190 335 100 290 625 Total primary lending Memo: Federal Reserve banks 16,259 * \,777 14,937 («) 8,696 («) 71,060 3,513 85,998 (5) 94,694 (5) 250 40 335 250 290 625 4,866 4,705 3,200 25,232 29,937 33,137 138 1.344 2,043 182 1.249 2,120 249 1.408 1,985 2,555 8,081 11,164 2,737 9,329 13,284 2,986 10,737 15,270 6,464 1,116 -2,495 16,679 17,795 15,300 1,058 -18 4,498 -55 3,273 475 3,292 780 7,789 725 11,062 1,200 16,145 13,855 8,430 68,032 81,887 90,317 1,209 44 -316 -* 343 -6 1,509 129 1,193 129 1,536 122 100 190 (3) 335 100 290 (3) 625 -35 5 413 -10 23 644 10 1,055 1,078 14,822 13,579 7,736 65,641 79,219 86,955 100 (3) 4 (3) BORROWING (Funds raised) Student Loan Marketing Association. Federal National Mortgage Association.-.. Farm Credit System: Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks-. Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank System: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation: Corporation accounts Participation certificates 2 Total borrowing (unadjusted). Less: Borrowing from other sponsored agencies: FHLB loans to FHLMC Other . Less: Borrowing from Federal agencies: FFB loans to SLMA FHLB loans to FHL banks Less: Loans to Federal agencies: Investments in Federal securities. __ FHL bank loans to FHLBB Total borrowing (adjusted) "Less than $500 thousand. See note (1), table E-8. See note (2), table E-8. A loan of $2,500 million made in August of 1974 is expected to be repaid prior to the end of 4the fiscal year. Federal Reserve bank's loans to member banks are excluded from totals since these are not estimated for fiscal years not yet completed. 5 Not estimated. 1 2 3 94 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED CREDIT ENTERPRISES OUTSIDE THE BUDGET Several major Government-sponsored credit enterprises, created to facilitate the financing of selected programs, are privatoly owned and managed. All, however, are subject to some form of Federal supervision and consult the Treasury Department as required by law or by custom in planning the marketing of their obligations. The principal enterprises in this category are the Federal Home Loan Bank System, the three major components of the Farm Credit System, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and the Student Loan Marketing Association. These enterprises differ from other private institutions in that they have been given special preferences, including rights to assess their constituents, various tax exemptions and preferences, and preferential eligibility rights for federally regulated institutions and others to invest in their securities. These, plus the enterprises' implied Federal backing, give their security obligations a preferred position in the debt securities market and enable them to borrow at interest rates well below the rates attained by the best grade corporate securities, and only moderately above the Government's own rates. All Government-sponsored credit enterprises are essentially financial intermediaries, channeling funds from one sector of the capital market to another. They borrow mainly in the "agency sector" of the bond markets, and disburse these funds for specifically authorized purposes, either directly to lending establishments or by purchasing loans originated by them.7 Some of the agencies also serve as reserve facilities or provide secondary marketing functions, providing liquidity for constituent lenders during tight money periods by making temporary advances or buying portfolio loans for resale. Funds lent by Government-sponsored credit enterprises are obtained mostly from borrowings in the capital markets. Sale of capital stock and retained earnings also provide a small portion of resources used for lending. Moreover, the timing of borrowing to lending varies from year to year. Tables E-8, and E-9 show both the lending and borrowing sides of these credit institutions. SUMMARY OF FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED CREDIT TRANSACTIONS Table E-10 summarizes the components of Federal financial activity. Components within the aggregates change substantially from year to year, but this is often mainly a shift in the form of credit not affecting the totals. For example, much of the large rise in off-budget loans from $2.2 billion in 1974 to $14.9 billion in 1975 is due to large purchases of guaranteed loans by the new Federal Financing Bank. However, guaranteed loans decline to reflect this purchase. Similar effects occur on the borrowing side. 7 The program of the Government National Mortgage Association (a budget agency in HUD) to guarantee mortgage-backed securities achieves a very similar "intermediation" result. GNMA guarantees securities issued against privately held pools of federally guaranteed or insured mortgages. The FRB flow-of-funds data, for example, include this GNMA program within the definition of Government-sponsored credit enterprises. GNMA data appear in memorandum entries of tables E-6 and E-7. SPECIAL ANALYSES 95 Table E-10. SUMMARY OF CREDIT ADVANCED AND CREDIT RAISED UNDER FEDERAL AUSPICES (in billions of dollars) Net change 1974 actual Outstanding 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate LENDING (Credit advanced) Direct loans (from table E-4): On budget agencies Off-budget agencies Guaranteed loans (primary, adjusted, from table E-7) Loans by federally sponsored credit intermediaries (from E-9) Total, credit advanced to the public under Federal auspices1 Outside the budget 1.9 2.2 .6 15.0 3.4 8.9 46.1 15.4 46.2 30.8 49.6 39.8 6.2 .8 7.7 153.2 154.0 161.7 16.3 14.9 8.7 71.1 86.0 94.7 26.6 24.7 31.3 30.7 28.7 25.3 285.7 317.1 345.7 3.0 43.5 63.5 346.1 389.6 453.1 BORROWING (Credit raised) Federal borrowing from the public (from table C-1)___ Guaranteed borrowing (same as guaranteed loans, above) Borrowing by federally sponsored credit intermediaries (net, from table E-9) 6.2 .8 7.7 153.2 154.0 161.7 14.8 13.6 7.7 65.6 79.2 87.0 Total, credit raised from the public under Federal auspices 1 Net credit advanced 24.1 2.5 57.9 -26.6 78.9 -50.2 622.8 701.7 1 564.9 Excludes Federal Reserve credit. INTEREST SUBSIDIES It was noted earlier that most Federal credit assistance is not reflected in the budget. The budget, therefore, does not measure the fiscal and allocational effects of credit programs. The data gathered for this analysis still fall far short of measuring the total effects of loans made under Federal auspices. This analysis cannot, for example, estimate the economic impacts of Federal credit assistance since there is no way at present to ascertain what the level of credit activity in each program area would have been in the absence of the Federal program. Federal loan programs hold one characteristic in common: They provide credit on more favorable terms, particularly longer maturities, higher loan-to-value ratios, and lower interest rates, than are otherwise available for comparable private loans. The measure of these subsidies of Federal credit programs provides a useful index of likely program impact. Table E—11. ESTIMATED INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUES FOR MAJOR DIRECT AND GUARANTEED LOAN COMMITMENTS (in millions of dollars) Borrower loan terms 1 Agency and program Annual subsidy er $100 per millions Commitments 1974 1975 Subsidy—Present value at 10% discount 1976 Percent Years 1974 1975 1976 7.5 2.8 15.2 40.0 1.8 6.1 353 664 509 575 122 306 49 395 70 342 7.1 2.3 5.1 5.0 1.4 33.0 32.0 35.0 1.7 1,554 1,415 931 6.1 566 4.1 3,328 3,941 4.3 921 1,060 1,769 863 3,681 938 34 330 1,313 380 31 543 1,555 437 39 503 1,453 387 2.7 7.0 13.8 25.0 4.7 2.4 369 55 29 123 13 129 12 10 6.0 7.0 8.9 7.5 3.5 1.5 30.0 28.1 2.0 901 2.7 843 32 160 8.4 569 2.5 521 1.0 3,027 12,450 1.4 40 600 52 576 65 4 126 276 70 18 138 114 1 46 6 139 5.0 6.5 9.0 7.0 7.8 8.0 7.9 15.0 6.0 29.3 30.0 8.0 23.9 30.0 174 193 3.4 155 80 72 2.1 436 409 .9 360 151 205 247 2.5 1.4 4,905 5,570 5,375 745 1,587 100 1.6 2,500 1.8 41 51 7 34 50 418 110 434 46 7 36 60 403 234 DIRECT LOANS Funds appropriated to the President: Security assistance Development assistance Agriculture: Price support CCC: Public Law 480 Farmers Home Administration. ___ Rural Electrification Administration Health, Education, and Welfare: Capital for student loans Medical facilities Housing and Urban Development: Urban renewal._. _ Low-rent public housing Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Housing for elderly Veterans Administration: Insurance policy loans Education loans Housing _ District of Columbia loans Export-Import Bank Federal Financing Bank purchases of unsubsidized loans Federal Home Loan Bank Board __ __ ___ __ _ ___ _ _ _ _ ._ 879 515 353 58 175 30 36 368 15 4 Small Business Administration: Business and investment loans Disaster loan fund Other agencies and programs 7.3 8.0 7.5 7.6 3.0 12.5 1.7 1.1 1.7 235 369 5 199 200 273 116 160 214 Total—Major subsidized direct loans 21 11 1 18 6 33 10 5 26 3,614 5,672 3,826 105 22 92 154 116 89 _ 186 234 2 136 732 101 34 39 684 255 4 48 92 223 258 3 43 58 1,378 1,512 841 14 22 14 6 22 45 38 14 42 105 5,006 7,227 4,772 GUARANTEED LOANS Health, Education, and Welfare: Higher education facilities Health maintenance organizations Medical facilities Student loan insurance Housing and Urban Development: Urban renewal Low-rent public housing Interest subsidies on insured mortgages Interior: Indian loans Department of Transportation WMATA guarantees Veterans Administration loan and property sales 10 7.0 7.0 7.0 15.0 25.0 25.0 13.0 4.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 293 98 416 1.040 4.8 4.5 3.6 8.0 7.0 8.0 .7 41.5 21.8 10.0 40.0 29.0 6.1 4.8 4.7 1.3 2.7 1.7 58 288 1,763 375 209 324 1 100 402 1,260 1.584 950 1.446 615 46 177 568 471 620 43 160 356 Total—major subsidized guaranteed loans. 22 AGENCY DEBT ISSUES FINANCED BY FEDERAL FINANCING BANK Tennessee Valley Authority Postal Service United States Railway Association _ Total debt issue subsidies 3_ Grand total 1 2 3 If terms vary, these are estimated averages. Based on 10% value of funds. Interest savings are passed through to private users. 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 15.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 500 780 500 50 750 1,550 347 98 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Only the interest subsidy is treated in this section, even though other subsidy elements may be substantial. Some subsidies not considered here are fees or premiums inadequate to cover costs of administration and losses, waivers of such fees or premiums, or foregiveness of part or all of loan principal. However, for the two programs financed with tax-exempt securities, the analysis includes that part of the tax subsidy that accrues to the borrower. The subsidy element in any federally assisted loan, direct or guaranteed, is the difference between the cost of borrowing under the Federal program and that cost in private credit markets. These interest subsidies come about for several reasons. In some direct loan programs the interest rate established by statutory formula may be at rates below market rates. In other direct loan programs the laws provide for interest rates to be set to recover the costs of borrowing by the Treasury, thereby providing private borrowers loans at rate« otherwise available only to the U.S. Government. In guaranteed loan programs, the guarantee8 itself subsidizes interest rates, since risk is a factor in credit costs. Additional subsidies, most frequently debt service payments, are often added to loan guarantees. These explicit subsidies sometimes cover both interest and principal amounts, but more often cover some designated share of the interest costs. In evaluating the implicit subsidies in loan programs, it is necessary to estimate the interest rate that the borrower would have had to pay in private credit markets. It is difficult and sometimes impossible to determine what the unassisted interest rates would have been on a program-by-program basis. In this analysis 10% has been adopted as a reasonable estimate of the average private sector cost of borrowing for all activities and loan terms represented. Because interest subsidies occur throughout the life of the loan, an evaluation of interest subsidies requires the measurement of a stream of payments. Since a simple total of future obligations would overstate the true value of the subsidy stream, the preferred measurement of the successive annual subsidy payments is in "present value" terms. This is accomplished by capitalizing (or discounting) future subsidies at an appropriate rate. A discount rate of 10% has been used in this analysis. For any single year the budget reflects the current effects of interest concessions made to federally assisted borrowers on outstanding loans made in previous years. Table E - l l , however, reports only on the present values of future subsidies provided by new loan commitments. PROPOSED LEGISLATION The Administration has proposed and is preparing legislation in a number of areas related to credit programs. A $150 million increase in loan guarantee authority under section 215 of the Regional Rail Reorganization Act of 1973 will be proposed to assist railroads currently in reorganization to maintain and improve facilities and equipment during the period that the United States Railway Association is planning the restructuring of rail services in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the Nation. In addition, the Department of Transportation will reintroduce legislation which would provide loan guarantees to these railroads for both fixed plant and rolling stock capital improvement programs. 8 In the absence of a more accurate basis for evaluation, "market-rate" guaranteed loans, i.e., those in which no explicit subsidies are incurred, are excluded from this analysis. SPECIAL ANALYSES 99 In the Administration's new surface transportation regulatory modernization legislation, Federal loan guarantees of $2 billion will be proposed to enable railroads to undertake needed fixed plant and rolling stock improvements. Other proposals include: Removal of the 5% interest rate ceilings on certain agricultural credit programs and legislation to permit rates charged borrowers to reflect prevailing market rates. Legislation will be submitted to establish a special financing facility, a new multilateral loan fund, to assist industrialized nations to help meet financial requirements during the energy crisis. The U.S. contingent commitment to the fund is expected to be up to $7 billion. NEWLY ENACTED CREDIT LEGISLATION This summary lists legislation enacted during the last session of Congress that authorizes new Federal credit programs or revises existing programs in major respects. It excludes simple extensions of expiring laws and increases in funds for continuing programs. Emergency Livestock Credit Act of 1974—Public Law 93-357 Authorizes FMHA to guarantee loans to cattlemen in an amount not to exceed $2 billion at any time. The guarantee is limited to 80% of principal. Housing and Community Development Act of 1974—Public Law 93-383 Authorizes a new coinsurance program for mortgage loans that will permit the sharing of risks between the Government and the lenders originating those loans. Required downpayments were lowered under all mortgage insurance programs, and most of these programs were extended to June 30, 1977. Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965—Public Law 93423 In addition to previously authorized fixed asset loans and guarantees of loans for working capital, eligible borrowers can now receive direct working capital loans; guarantees of up to 90% of the outstanding balance of fixed capital loans made by private lending institutions; and guarantees of rental payments of leases for buildings and equipment at a rate of up to 90% of remaining rental payments. Emergency Home Purchase Assistance Act of 1974—Public Law 93-454 Authorizes a temporary program under which the Government National Mortgage Association will purchase conventional (nonfederally insured) mortgages with below market interest rates. Depository Institutions Amendments Act—Public Law 93-495 Gives the Federal Home Loan Bank Board the authority to borrow an additional $2 billion. This authority expires in August 1975. Vietnam Era Veterans Readjustment Assistance Act of 1974—Public Law 93-508 Sets up a Veterans Administration education loan fund as a revolving fund to be available for making loans to eligible veterans and dependents training under Chapters 34 and 35, Title 38, United States Code. 100 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 National Health Planning and Resources Development Act of 1974— Public Law 93-508 Extends the direct loan, loan guarantee and interest subsidies provisions first enacted in the Hill-Burton Act Amendments of 1970. The new act removes the previous statutory limit of $1.5 billion on the amount of outstanding loan principal that may be guaranteed or made directly by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Unlike the prior law, the new act does not make taxable the interest on any loans made to public bodies and sold and guaranteed by HEW. Export-Import Bank Amendments of 1974—Public Law 93-646 Returns the transactions of the Export-Import Bank to on-budget status effective October 1, 1976. The Export-Import Bank was removed from the budget in August 17, 1971. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F TAX EXPENDITURES This special analysis focuses on certain provisions of the personal and corporate income tax that are designed to achieve particular economic and social objectives. These provisions result in tax expenditures, which are defined as revenue losses attributable to a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or to a special credit, preferential rate of tax, or deferral of tax liability. Tax expenditures are one means by which public policy objectives are pursued by the Federal Government and, in most cases, can be viewed as alternatives to budget outlays, credit assistance, or other instruments of public policy. Tax expenditures are being presented in the budget documents this year for the first time, as required by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974. The definition of tax expenditures used here is taken from the Act and its legislative history. The specific objectives of tax expenditures are varied. Most tax expenditures are meant either to encourage certain economic activities or to reduce income tax liabilities for taxpayers in special circumstances. Among the economic activities encouraged by tax expenditures are investment, exporting, petroleum exploration and development, spending by State and local governments, and support of charitable institutions. The deductibility of medical expenses, casualty losses, and personal exemptions for the aged and blind are adjustments of tax liabilities to meet special circumstances. DEFINING TAX EXPENDITURES Income tax provisions resulting in tax expenditures are defined as exceptions to the "normal structure" of the individual and corporate income tax. They reduce tax liabilities for particular groups of taxpayers. Excluded from this analysis, by definition, are what could be called negative tax expenditures or tax penalties—i.e., exceptions to the normal structure of income taxes that result in increased tax liabilities for certain groups of taxpayers. Limitations on the deductibility of losses on the sale of assets, on the carryover of business losses, and on income averaging are examples. High, progressive tax rates could be viewed as creating negative tax expenditures for high income taxpayers. The normal structure is nowhere defined in the tax code; the concept has emerged in recent years from congressional and public review of the U.S. tax system. It focuses on the definition of the income tax base and the rates applied to that base. A theoretically pure income tax could define income in economic terms, as receipts available to support consumption or additions to net wealth, plus the imputed value of in-kind consumption and imputed changes in net wealth. The 101 102 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 definition of income embodied in the normal tax structure and used to identify tax expenditures is not theoretically pure. The impracticality of making the necessary imputations is recognized and the treatment of individuals and corporations as separate taxpaying entities is accepted. Features that specify the structure of progressive rates and that exclude low-income persons from tax liability are deemed a part of that normal tax structure. Existing rates are accepted as "normal" even though there is no theoretical foundation upon which to support any particular degree of progressivity in the individual income tax rate structure or any particular corporate income tax rate. When the rate structure is changed, for whatever reason, the new rate structure becomes, by definition, the new norm. The existing rate structure for individuals, ranging from 14% to 70%, and the corporate tax rates cannot be presumed to exist independently from current tax expenditures. If major tax expenditure items were deleted and no other changes made in the tax system or in budget outlays, rates would undoubtedly be set at lower levels so as to maintain an appropriate fiscal policy. If a set of tax rates, to be applied against a theoretically pure definition of income, could be agreed to on normative grounds, it would be conceptually possible to identify and measure both positive and negative tax expenditures against such a norm. If a single tax rate were taken as the norm, lower actual rates would result in tax expenditures and higher rates in negative tax expenditures or tax penalties. To illustrate the arbitrariness of accepting the existing rates as a norm, consider the maximum tax of 50% on earned income, introduced in 1972 by the Tax Reform Act of 1969. It is treated here as part of the normal structure because the great preponderance of all income is subject only to the 50% maximum rate. Had the rates applicable to unearned income been considered the norm, then the 50% maximum rate on earned income would have been identified as a tax expenditure. To be more explicit, the following features of the tax system are defined for the purposes of this analysis to be part of the normal tax structure and therefore not to result in tax expenditures: • The progressive rate schedules for the individual income tax. No tax expenditure results because some income is taxed at lower rates than other income when progressive rate schedules are applied to taxable income. The income averaging provision of the tax code is a part of the normal structure as it limits the impact of progressive rates when income fluctuates significantly over several years. • Personal exemptions and the minimum standard deduction. These set levels of income, depending upon family size, that are not taxed by the individual income tax. However, deductions for additional personal exemptions for those over 65 and for the blind are tax expenditures because they depend upon more special circumstances. The percentage standard deduction, to the extent it exceeds the minimum standard deduction, is also a tax expenditure because it substitutes for itemized deductions. SPECIAL ANALYSES 103 Separate rate schedules jor single and married taxpayers, married taxpayers filing separately, and heads of households. Existing rates are accepted as part of the normal tax structure. Deduction oj business expenses. The deduction of business expenses is necessary tc determine taxable income. Tax expenditures do not ordinarily result from applying the definitions of business expenses prescribed by the Internal Revenue Code and Internal Revenue Service interpretative regulations. Tax expenditures do occur when the tax code permits business or investment expenditures that are capital outlays in economic terms to be treated as current expenses. A case in point is the expensing of research and development costs; they usually result in substantial future benefits. Expensing of such costs is treated here as a tax expenditure even though the Financial Accounting Standards Board has recently ruled that research and development costs should be expensed when incurred because no satisfactory basis exists for amortizing such costs in individual cases. All advertising expenditures are allowed as a current expense and even though future benefits may accrue, no tax expenditure results. Tax expenditures also result when the tax code permits depreciation to be taken on buildings sooner than allowed by straight-line depreciation, even though neither approach may reflect the true replacement cost or economic obsolescence. In the case of depreciation on machinery and equipment the Internal Revenue Code allows as a depreciation deduction "a reasonable allowance for the exhaustion, wear and tear (including a reasonable allowance for obsolescence) on property used in trade or business or for the production of income." In the world of practical affairs, there is no single, correct number. Prospectively or even by hindsight, what is a "reasonable" allowance is always a question of judgment. Consequently, audit practices and standards were for many years not uniform and different taxpayers using the same property in the same way were often required to take substantially different deductions. The asset depreciation range (ADR) system, which became effective in 1971, was designed to make practices more uniform and realistic. It recognizes that circumstances vary from taxpayer to taxpayer and that no single number is necessarily correct. It defines a band within which estimates of useful life will be deemed to be "reasonable." That band is determined by reference to broad classes of property and ranges 20% up and 20% down from a published figure designated as the "asset guideline period." The ADR system is a mechanism to arrive at a "reasonable" allowance and does not result in a tax expenditure as defined above. The effect of inflation on the difference between the historical cost of assets, upon which depreciation deductions are based, and replacement costs exacerbates the difficulty of measuring true economic deterioration. Exclusion of unrealized capital gains and losses. Although the base of a theoretically pure income tax could include net capital gains 104 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 on an accrual basis, practical problems prevent identifying or taxing unrealized capital gains for many types of assets, and the normal structure taxes only wealth accruals which are "realized". For this reason the failure to tax unrealized gains during the holder's lifetime is not listed as a tax expenditure. Similarly, the failure to tax unrealized capital gains at death is treated here as part of the normal tax system and not a tax expenditure since no exchange or sale takes place. No estimate of the revenue loss due to the failure to tax capital gains at death could be made unless a specific technique of taxation is supposed such as averaging over a number of years. • Exclusion of imputed income from owner-occupied housing and other sources. A theoretically pure income tax could include in its base an imputation for the income received in kind from the occupancy of a home owned by the taxpayer and imputations for in-kind income from the ownership of other durable assets including art collections, furniture, and books. Because of severe problems of imputing income to these assets, they are not considered in the computation of tax expenditures even though such exclusions of imputed income have an effect upon the allocation of the economy's resources, particularly with respect to housing. • Exclusion of gifts and bequests received. The normal tax system subjects gifts and bequests, which are usually made within a family, to taxes separate from the income tax. The tax expenditure concept could be extended to gift and estate taxes, though to do so would go beyond the scope of this analysis. The exclusion of scholarships and fellowships, which are usually granted by institutions, is treated as a tax expenditure. • Exclusion of the value of government services received in kind. The normal tax structure does not define the value of such services as food stamps, rent supplements, or Medicare as income. • Foreign tax credits. To avoid the double taxation of income earned abroad, and thus accommodate the U.S. tax system to international norms, the normal structure of income taxes includes tax credits for foreign taxes paid. • Treatment of individuals and corporations as separate tax paying entities. A theoretically pure income tax would integrate the taxation of personal and corporate income so as to avoid multiple taxation of any particular type of income. Only individuals would be taxed; corporate income would be taxed as dividends are paid and retained earnings imputed to shareholders. The normal tax structure accepts separate taxation. • Earnings of foreign corporations. The general tax law does not seek to tax foreign entities or persons on income earned abroad. Thus, earnings of foreign corporations operating outside the United States are not taxable. The tax law does, however, tax U.S. shareholders on dividends from corporations, regardless of where those corporations are located or operated. The general principle, however, is that dividends are taxed only when received. For this reason, not taxing the income of controlled foreign corporations until received is part of the normal tax structure. The distinction between the normal tax structure and those exceptions leading to tax expenditures is clear-cut in most cases but in some SPECIAL ANALYSES 105 it is essentially arbitrary. The distinction should not imply that the features of the normal tax system are exempt from periodic analysis and review. Like tax expenditures, many features of the normal tax structure have major effects upon the level and composition of economic activity and the distribution of income; some features affect the everyday activities of corporations, trusts, and partnerships. Budget outlays, or other policy instruments, are alternative means to achieve the objectives of some of the features of the normal tax structure just as they are with tax expenditures. This analysis does not attempt a complete listing of all the special tax provisions. Some items are excluded because there is insufficient information available on which to base a sound estimate. Some items are omitted because of their relatively small quantitative importance. MEASURING TAX EXPENDITURES The tax expenditure estimates reported below in table F - l have been prepared by the Treasury Department and are based upon current law. For the fiscal years shown, they estimate the loss of budget receipts resulting from each of these particular features of the tax system. Each estimate is based upon two major assumptions. The first is that only the tax provision in question is deleted and all other features of the tax system, including the structure of rates, remain unchanged. The hypothetical deletion increases the estimated taxable income for corporations or individuals; the existing marginal tax rates are then applied, giving the estimated tax expenditure. If, however, major tax expenditures were in fact deleted, in all probability some features of the normal income tax, such as rate structures or personal exemptions, would be changed so that the marginal rates used in making the estimates would no longer apply. Outlay or credit programs might also be altered or new tax expenditure items added. Such actions cannot, of course, be anticipated when individual tax expenditure estimates are made. In the case of itemized nonbusiness deductions for individuals each estimate of revenue loss is based upon the amount by which the standard deduction is exceeded. Second, taxpayer behavior and general economic conditions are assumed to remain unchanged in response to the hypothetical change in the tax laws. This assumption is required to estimate tax expenditures but it is, in many cases, unrealistic. In particular, to the extent that tax expenditures designed to encourage certain economic activities have been successful, their elimination would presumably change taxpayer behavior. Thus, if the tax credit for investment were deleted, both taxpayer behavior and general economic conditions w^ould be expected to change with a resulting impact on budget receipts generally. At the other extreme, if the special exemptions for the blind and those over 65 were dropped from the tax code, taxpayer behavior or general economic conditions would be unlikely to change. For a variety of reasons tax expenditures can never be reported with the precision of actual budget receipts and outlays. Whenever possible, sample data from tax returns are used in making the estimates. These data are not, however, available for the years presented here, as these returns have not yet been filed or tabulated. The estimates must be made by extrapolating sample tax return data from 106 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 past years by means of other, more current information including the economic forecast used in estimating budget receipts and outlays (see Part 3 of the Budget). Moreover, many tax expenditures result from excluded income, not reported on tax returns. Any changes scheduled by existing law, such as the phasing in or out of specific provisions, are accounted for in the estimates. Any major changes in the provisions of the normal tax structures, such as a change in rates, would affect virtually all the estimates. Several tax expenditure items are included in the base of the 10% minimum tax for tax preferences, introduced by the Tax Reform Act of 1969 in order to assure that individuals and corporations receiving such tax preferences pay a share of the tax burden. Among them are accelerated depreciation on real property, excess reserves of financial institutions for losses on bad debts, percentage depletion in excess of cost depletion, and one-half of net long-term capital gains. The minimum tax is, in general, applied to the sum of preference items reduced by a $30 thousand exemption plus the income tax for the year. The estimates of tax expenditures presented in this analysis are net of any minimum tax liabilities associated with particular items. Some tax expenditure items affect the timing of deductions or the receipt of taxable income. Examples are depreciation in excess of straight line for buildings and rental housing and the deferral of income by domestic international sales corporations (DISC's). These provisions create a permanent tax expenditure even though for a particular taxpayer, transaction, or asset, the special provision may really represent a deferral of tax. However, for a stable or growing business with an indefinite life, for the Government, and for the entire economy, the deferral of taxes continues forever under most of these provisions. Furthermore, as the economy grows, these amounts increase over time. Estimates for these items attempt to show the difference between budget receipts under the current law and budget receipts if a different law had always been in effect. These figures do not, therefore, estimate the revenue that could be obtained in the first years of a transition from one tax law to another. They are long-run estimates at the levels of economic activity assumed for the years in question. Tax expenditure estimates cannot be simply added together to form totals for functional areas or a grand total. In some cases the revenue gain resulting from the deletion of two tax expenditure items would be greater than the sum of the individual estimates. For example, if interest income from State and local government securities were made taxable and capital gains were taxed at ordinary rates, many individuals would be pushed into higher tax brackets than if just one of these sources of income became fully taxable; the combined effect on revenue would be greater than the sum of the two separate estimates. In other cases, the revenue gain from the deletion of two items would be smaller than the sum of the individual estimates. For example, if the deductibility of mortgage interest payments and homeowner property taxes were both repealed, and the standaid deduction unchanged, many individuals who now itemize their deductions would opt for the standard deduction, thus limiting the revenue gain. In general, elimination of multiple items that are personal deductions would SPECIAL ANALYSES 107 increase revenues by less than the simple sum of the revenue gains from eliminating each item measured separately since many taxpayers would switch to using the standard deduction. Conversely, elimination of multiple items that are exclusions from adjusted gross income would increase revenues by more than the sum of the individual gains as taxpayers would be pushed into higher tax brackets. Moreover, if several major tax expenditure items were eliminated, the assumptions of no changes in economic behavior and conditions or in other features of the tax system would have little validity. A few aggregations of related tax expenditure items are presented and discussed in the next section; these aggregates have been specially estimated so as to account for the interactions referred to above. Where tax expenditures for both individuals and corporations result from the same tax code provision, the two estimates may appropriately be added together. TAX EXPENDITURES BY FUNCTION Estimates of tax expenditures are grouped together by functional category and presented in table F - l . The estimates are shown separately for individuals and corporations. Whenever possible particular tax expenditures have been classified according to the functional categories used for budget outlays. Many tax expenditures do not, however, fit into these categories and for that reason three special functional categories have been added: business investment, personal investment, and other tax expenditures. In the case of tax expenditures designed to encourage certain types of economic activity, it should not be inferred that the benefits of the special tax treatment rest fully or even mostly with the corporations or individuals whose taxes are initially affected. Benefits are often passed on to others in the form of lower prices for particular goods or services or in other ways become widely diffused. For example, the deductibility of charitable contributions does not merely lower individual or corporate liabilities; the individuals and institutions that receive the contributions benefit also. A brief description of each of the special tax provisions for which a tax expenditure estimate is shown in table F - l follows. National defense.—The supplements to salaries of military personnel by provision of quarters and meals on military bases and off-base quarters allowances for military families, and virtually all salary payments and reenlistment bonuses to military personnel serving in combat zones, are excluded from tax. Disability related military pensions are largely excluded from taxable income. International affairs.—For citizens of the United States who are not employees of the Federal Government, income earned abroad up to $20 thousand for each complete tax year is exempted from taxation if the taxpayer is a bona fide resident of a foreign country for an uninterrupted period that includes 1 full tax year or, if he is present there 510 days during a period of 18 consecutive months. After 3 years, foreign resident taxpayers can exclude up to $25 thousand a 108 T H E BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table F-l. TAX EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, BY FUNCTION* (in millions of dollars) Corporations Description 1974 1975 National defense: Exclusion of benefits and allowances to Armed Forces personnel Exclusion of military disability pensions International affairs: Exclusion of gross-up on dividends of LDC corporations 55 55 Exclusion of certain income earned abroad by U.S. citizens Deferral of income of domestic international sales corporations (DISC) 870 1,070 Special rate for Western Hemisphere trade corporations 50 50 Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays 170 145 Capital gain treatment of certain income 30 20 Natural resources, environment and energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs. 750 950 Excess of percentage over cost depletion 1,815 2,200 Capital gain treatment of royalties on coal and iron ore 5 5 Timber: capital gain treatment of certain income. 130 145 Pollution control: 5-year amortization 35 30 Commerce and transportation: $25,000 corporate surtax exemption 3,270 3,590 Deferral of tax on shipping companies 35 35 Railroad rolling stock: 5-year amortization 70 60 Bad debt reserve of financial institutions in excess ofactual 1,000 1,030 Deductibility of nonbusiness State gasoline taxes. Community and regional development: Housing rehabilitation: 5-year amortization.... 35 45 Education, manpower and social services: Child care facilities: 5-year amortization 5 5 Exclusion of scholarships and fellowships Parental personal exemptions for student age 19 andoveV. . Deductibility of contributions to educational institutions 155 160 Deductibility of child and dependent care expenses Credit for employing public assistance recipients under work incentive program 5 5 Health: Exclusion of employer contributions to medical insurance premiums and medical care Deductibility of medical expenses Income security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Disability insurance benefits OASI benefits for aged Benefits for dependents and survivors Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits.. Exclusion of sick pay Exclusion of unemployment insurance benefits... Exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits_.. Exclusion of public assistance benefits See footnote at end of table. Individuals 1976 1974 1975 1976 650 65 650 75 650 85 90 95 100 155 25 580 520 480 280 495 340 1,235 2,610 80 305 100 370 130 445 5 155 20 55 60 60 865 850 850 50 70 60 195 210 -190 - 655 670 690 155 355 405 435 230 240 250 2,940 3,340 2,125 2,375 3,745 2,630 235 260 2,530 2,655 410 435 160 170 255 275 1»050 2,370 520 570 75 85 28U 2,940 480 180 295 3,83U 620 90 55 1,320 50 3,570 40 55 980 35 5 5 SPECIAL ANALYSES 109 Table F—1. TAX EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, BY FUNCTION*—Continued (in millions of dollars) Corporations Individuals Description 1974 1975 1976 1974 Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans Plans for self-employed and others Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance Premiums on accident and accidental death insurance Privately financed supplementary unemployment benefits _ Meals and lodging Exclusion on capital gain on house sales if over 65 _ Excess of percentage standard deduction over minimum standard deduction Additional exemption for the blind Additional exemption for over 65 Retirement income credit Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans disability compensation Exclusion of veterans pensions Exclusion of GI Bill benefits General government: Credits and deductions for political contributions Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on State and local debt.__. 2,805 3,155 3,505 Exclusion of income earned in U.S. possessions. _ 350 350 350 Deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes (other than on owner-occupied homes and gasoline) Business investment: Depreciation on rental housing in excess of straightline 105 115 120 Depreciation on buildings (other than rental housing) in excess of straight line 285 280 275 Expensing of research and development expenditures . 605 630 660 Capital gain: corporate (other than farming and timber 745 595 755 Investment credit 3,690 4,160 4,420 Personal investment: Dividend exclusion. . Capital gain: individual (other than farming and timber) Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings Deferral of capital gain on home sales Deductibility of mortgage interest on owneroccupied homes ---, Deductibility of property taxes on owneroccupiedhomes Deductibility of casualty losses Other tax expenditures: Exemption of credit unions 105 115 125 Deductibility of charitable contributions (other than education) 290 295 285 Deductibility of interest on consumer credit •AH estimates are based on the tax code as of January 1, 1975. 1975 1976 4,790 230 5,200 410 5,740 710 680 740 805 40 45 50 5 175 10 5 180 10 5 190 10 1,260 15 1,150 100 1,370 15 1,200 75 1,420 15 1,250 70 485 25 290 525 30 255 550 35 250 10 25 50 1,060 5 1,160 5 1,260 5 6,955 8,820 9,950 375 405 420 220 220 215 880 905 950 320 340 360 6,150 1,420 255 3,280 1,620 285 4,165 1,820 315 4,870 5,590 6,500 4,060 255 4,660 275 5,270 300 3,820 4,485 2, 435 2,885 4,840 3, 460 110 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 tax year. Certain allowances received by Federal employees working abroad are also tax-exempt. The profits of a Domestic International Sales Corporation (DISC) are not taxed to the DISC but instead are taxed to the shareholders when distributed to them. This deferral is available for 50% of the export income of a DISC. To qualify as a DISC at least 95% of a corporation's gross receipts must arise from export activities. The resulting tax expenditure is expected to increase from $0.9 million in 1974 to $1.3 billion in 1976 as additional DISC's are created and a larger volume of export income is deferred. Domestic corporations qualifying as Western Hemisphere Trade Corporations are entitled to a special deduction which reduces their tax rate by 14 percentage points from 48% to 34%. When a foreign subsidiary of a U.S. corporation operating in a less developed country (LDC) repatriates dividends to its parent corporation, that income may be reported net of foreign income taxes paid. U.S. tax liability is then calculated on that net amount and the foreign tax is taken as a credit. For non-LDC corporations income must Be reported gross of foreign taxes paid. The failure to "gross-up" the dividends by the amount of the foreign taxes paid results in a tax expenditure. Agriculture,—Farmers, including corporations, may deduct certain costs as current expenses even though these expenditures were for inventories on hand at the end of the year or capital improvements. Capital gains treatment applies to the sale of livestock, orchards, vineyards, and comparable agricultural activities. The decline in the estimate for 1975 is due to expected decreases in certain types of farm income. Natural resources, environment and energy,—Certain capital costs necessary to bring a mineral deposit into production may be deducted as current expenses rather than spread over the useful life of the property. Included in this category are the intangible drilling costs of oil and gas wells, such as the wages of drilling crews, and the cost of developing other mineral deposits, such as expenditures for mine shafts, tunnels, and stripping. Extractive industries may choose between two methods of recovering capital costs invested in the development of natural resources. Under one method, actual outlays, to the extent not immediately expensible, may be deducted as "cost depletion" over the productive life of the property, much as other businesses may take deductions for the depreciation of capital goods. Alternatively, businesses in the extractive industries may deduct a prescribed percentage of gross income (at rates ranging from 22% for oil and gas to 5% for certain minerals, but not more than 50% of net income) where "percentage depletion" exceeds "cost depletion." Percentage depletion is not limited to the cost of the investment as is cost depletion. The basis for "cost depletion" is reduced to the extent certain costs are recovered through expensing of exploration and discovery costs and intangible drilling costs. There is no comparable reduction in "percentage depletion" to allow for costs which are allowed as expenses. Because SPECIAL ANALYSES 111 of the interaction between these two items, a tax expenditure estimated on the assumption that both were eliminated would be significantly smaller than the sum of the two separate items. Royalties from coal or iron ore deposits are treated as capital gains, rather than ordinary income. The gain on the cutting of timber is taxed at rates applicable to long-term capital gains, rather than at ordinary income rates. Taxpayers may elect to amortize a certified pollution control facility over a 5-year period rather than their longer actual useful life. If they so elect they may not claim the investment tax credit on the capital cost of the facility. Commerce and transportation.—Corporations generally pay income tax at the rate of 22% on all taxable income plus a surtax of 26% on taxable income in excess of $25 thousand. Each corporation therefore enjoys a surtax exemption of $25 thousand. This exemption is intended to encourage small or new business. Certain companies which operate U.S.-flag vessels on foreign trade routes receive an indefinite deferral of income taxes on that portion of their net income which is used for shipping purposes, primarily construction, modernization, and major repairs of ships. Specified classes of railroad rolling stock are eligible for amortization over a 5-year period whether owned by railroad companies or by lessors, rather than their longer, actual useful life. If 5-year amortization is elected the investment tax credit cannot be claimed. Commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and savings and loan associations are permitted to deduct and set aside additions to bad debt reserves in excess of actual loss experience and reasonable expectations as to future losses. Commercial banks may maintain a reserve of 1.8% of uninsured loans. The ratio will phase down to 1.2% in calendar year 1976. Mutual savings banks and savings and loan associations may deduct 45% of income in 1975, provided they maintain stipulated fractions of their assets in "qualifying assets," primarily residential mortgages. Under current law their maximum deduction will phase down to 40% in 1979 and thereafter. Individuals who itemize their deductions may deduct State gasoline excise taxes paid. The deduction of any excise tax on gasoline used for business purposes does not result in a tax expenditure. Community and regional development.—Taxpayers may, under certain conditions, elect to compute depreciation on rehabilitation expenditures for low and moderate income rental housing over a 5-year period. Qualified rehabilitation expenditures may not exceed $15 thousand per dwelling unit and must exceed $3 thousand. Education, manpower and social services.—Taxpayers may elect to amortize over a 5-year period expenditures incurred in acquiring, constructing, reconstructing, or rehabilitating child care or on-thejob training facilities. Recipients of scholarships and fellowships may exclude such amounts from taxable income, subject to certain limitations. The exclusion of 112 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 educational benefits under the GI bill are included in Veterans Benefits and Services. Taxpayers may claim personal exemptions for dependent children 19 or over who receive income of $750 or more per year only if they are full-time students. The student may also claim an exemption on his or her own tax return, in effect providing a double exemption, one on the parents' return and one on the student's. Contributions to nonprofit educational institutions are allowed as a deduction for individuals and corporations. (See the discussion of other charitable contributions under Other Tax Expenditures.) Child and dependent care expenses incurred to permit the taxpayer and his spouse to work may be taken as an itemized deduction up to a maximum of $400 per month. The deduction is reduced by 50 cents for each dollar of adjusted gross income in excess of $18,000 per year. A credit is allowed against income tax liability equal to 20% of first-year wages and salaries of employees placed in employment under the work incentive program. The credit for a taxable year cannot exceed $25 thousand plus 50% of the excess over that amount. Health.—Payments by employers for health insurance premiums and other medical expenses are deducted as business expenses by employers and excluded from income by employees. The exclusion from employees' income gives rise to the tax expenditure. Medical expenses in excess of 3 % of adjusted gross income including expenditures for prescribed drugs and medicines in excess of 1% of adjusted gross income may be deducted by individuals as itemized nonbusiness deductions. Individuals may also deduct half of the premiums they pay for medical care insurance up to a maximum deduction of $150 per year, without regard to the 3 % limitation. Income security.—Several forms of government transfer payments to individuals are excluded from taxable income. The implicit Federal revenue loss for each of these items is indicated in table F-1. Payment of social security disability insurance benefits assumes almost total inability to work. If the taxpayer had no other source of income these payments, even if taxable, would not be sufficient to result in any significant tax liability, given personal exemptions and minimum standard deduction. Since some recipients have property income, earnings during the year of disablement, or may file jointly with working spouses, a tax expenditure results from this exclusion. Social security payments received by the aged and dependents and survivors are taxexempt. Payments received under the railroad retirement system are also tax-exempt. Unemployment insurance and workmen's compensation benefits are tax-exempt. The former are expected to grow substantially during 1975 and 1976. Public assistance payments from State and local governments and the Federal supplemental security income program are also excluded. Certain payments, up to $100 per week, financed by an employer in lieu of wages during periods of employee injury or sickness are excluded from the employee's taxable income. SPECIAL ANALYSES 113 Certain contributions to pension plans paid by employers, and amounts set aside by the self-employed, are excluded from current individual gross income. Income earned by investing these funds is not taxable currently. The resulting tax expenditures are composed of two elements, lower effective tax rates after retirement, due to lower incomes and to special tax provisions enjoyed by the aged, and the excess of current contributions and investment earnings over amounts paid out in benefits. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 permits the self-employed to increase their deductible contributions to their own retirement plans to 15% of their income, up to a maximum of $7,500 per year, from a 10% and $2,500 limit under prior law. The act also permits employees not covered by an employer's plan to deduct annual contributions of 15% of compensation, up to a maximum of $1,500. These changes in the law are reflected in the estimated tax expenditures shown in table F - l . In addition to pension plans, many employers provide other employee benefits that are excluded from employee income. The employer's share of these benefits are deductible business expenses. A taxpayer 65 or older may exclude from gross income any capital gain allocated to the first $20 thousand of the adjusted sales price on a sale of his personal residence. This is a once in a lifetime exclusion. The percentage standard deduction—15% of adjusted gross income up to a limit of $2 thousand—sets an upper limit on the tax liability for many taxpayers, predominately in the lower and middle income range, and for that reason is classified under Income Security. The standard deduction is a substitute for itemizing deductions; the estimates shown are for the amount by which the standard deduction exceeds the minimum standard deduction of $1,300 or the itemized deductions that would be taken in the absence of this provision, whichever is greater. This provision also encourages taxpayers to use the simplified Short Form 1040A. If simplification were the only objective of this provision it would be classified under Other Tax Expenditures. Additional personal exemptions of $750 may be deducted by taxpayers who are over 65 or who are blind. These additional exemptions may not be claimed for the taxpayer's dependents. A retirement income tax credit may be claimed by individuals who are retired, or over age 65, of up to $228.60 (15% of $1,524) for a single person, or $342.90 (15% of $2,286) for a married couple, based on retirement income from all sources except social security, railroad retirement, or other tax-exempt benefits. The provision was designed to permit taxpayers with taxable retirement income a tax benefit approximately comparable to that accorded recipients of social security and similar tax-exempt benefit payments. The aggregate effect of excluding social security and railroad retirement benefits for the aged, the additional exemption for those over 65, and the retirement income credit are revenue losses of $4.3 billion in 1974, $4.7 billion in 1975, and $5.1 billion in 1976. These aggregates are greater than the sum of the individual estimates because more elderly persons would be pushed to taxpaying levels of income or into higher tax brackets if all of these items were deleted from the tax code. 530-700 O - 75 - 8 114 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Veteran benefits and services.—All compensation due to death or disability and pensions paid by the Veterans Administration are excluded from taxable income. GI bill benefits are also excluded. General government.—Political contributions up to a maximum of $100 ($200 in the case of joint returns) can be deducted or tax credits taken up to one-half of contributions but limited to $25 ($50 on joint returns). Prior to 1975 the maximums were half as large. Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance.—The interest on State and local government debts is excluded from Federal taxation. Both corporations, mainly commercial banks, and individuals receive this tax-exempt income. As a result, these governments are able to sell debt obligations at a lower interest cost than would be possible if such interest were subject to tax. U.S. citizens and corporations receiving income from sources in a U.S. possession may, under certain conditions, exclude such income from tax. The deductibility of nonbusiness State and local taxes provides indirect assistance to these governments. The deductibility of property taxes on owner-occupied homes and excise taxes on gasoline are classified elsewhere. The estimates shown here are primarily for the deductibility of State and local income and sales taxes. Business investment.—To the extent that allowable depreciation for tax purposes exceeds the rate at which assets actually depreciate, business tax liabilities are deferred. Businesses may employ a variety of depreciation schedules for tax purposes, some of which cause a much larger part of asset values to be written off in early years of the asset's useful life than do others. The revenue costs of allowing buildings and rental housing to be depreciated for tax purposes by methods that reduce asset value more rapidly than straight-line depreciation (the method typically used in financial statements) are shown. Research and development expenditures typically result in new products or processes, cost reductions, or other outcomes the benefits from which will, in nearly all cases, accrue for well over 1 year. For tax purposes businesses may deduct all research and development expenditures in the year during which they are incurred. The tax expenditure is estimated on the assumption that such expenditures are amortized over a 5-year period. Corporations may elect a 30% alternative tax rate on capital gains. The tax expenditure is estimated on the assumption that these gains would otherwise be taxed at 48%. An amount equal to 7% of the cost of qualifying property having a useful life of over 7 years (generally, tangible personal property used in a trade or business) may be offset directly against income tax liability. Lower rates apply to property with useful lives of 3 to 7 years. Public utility property qualifies for a maximum credit of only 4%. The maximum credit which may be claimed in a taxable year is limited to $25 thousand plus one-half of the excess of tax liability over $25 thousand. Excess credits may generally be carried back 3 taxable years and forward 7 taxable years, after which they expire if still unused. SPECIAL ANALYSES 115 Personal investment.—Grouped together in this category are a number of tax expenditure items that affect individuals as investors and holders of both real and financial assets. The first $100 ($100 per taxpayer on a joint return) of dividend income may be excluded from taxable income. Half of the gains from the sale of capital assets held more than 6 months is excluded from income. Long-term capital losses may be deducted from gains but no more than $1 thousand of long-term losses may be deducted in any 1 year from ordinary income. No special recognition is made of the effect of inflation on the value of assets. Capita] gains treatment under present law is complex for a number of reasons. It could be contended that: 1. Full taxation of realized capital gains, even with full taxation at death, could result in greater postponement of lifetime gains thereby limiting tax revenues; 2. With a different treatment of capital gains another approach to the corporation tax might provide for some integration of corporate and individual taxes; taxpayers who sell corporate shares might be given some credit for taxes paid by the corporation on the retained income which is reflected in the value of those shares; 3. Averaging of capital gains over the length of the holding period would lower the estimated revenue costs. The estimate is computed on the assumption that the half of longterm gains currently excluded were taxed at ordinary rates. Life insurance policies, other than term policies, generally have a saving element in them. Savings in the form of policyholders' reserves are accumulated from the premium payment, and interest is earned on these policyholders' reserves. Such interest income is taxable neither as it accrues nor as an element of death benefits. Capital gains on the sale of a home are recognized only to the extent that the "adjusted sales price" exceeds the cost of a new home purchased and occupied within a year before or after the sale (if a new house is constructed it must be occupied within 18 months after the sale). The "adjusted sales price" is the amount realized (gross proceeds minus selling expenses) minus qualified "fixing up" expenses. A loss on a sale of a home is not deductible. Owner-occupants of homes may deduct mortgage interest and property taxes (but not maintenance outlays or depreciation because the in-kind income from home ownership is not recognized) as itemized nonbusiness deductions. The tax expenditure from these two items combined would be $11.3 billion for 1976. This is less than the sum of the two separately because if both were deleted more taxpayers would save by using the standard deduction. Taxpayers may deduct as an itemized nonbusiness deduction the amount in excess of $100 for each loss due to fire, theft, or other casualty to the extent not compensated by insurance or other payments. This may encourage individuals to hold assets that are uninsurable or to self-insure. Other tax expenditures.—Credit unions are exempt from Federal income tax. Interest paid on consumer credit for any purpose is allowed as an itemized nonbusiness deduction for individuals. 116 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Contributions to charitable, religious, or certain other nonprofit organizations are allowed as an itemized deduction for individuals generally up to 50% of adjusted gross income. Taxpayers whose contributions to charitable or educational organizations are in the form of capital assets, usually securities, which have appreciated in value above their cost, obtain a deduction for the contribution at the appreciated value of the asset without taxation on the appreciation in value. Contributions to educational institutions are reported under Education and Manpower. Corporations may deduct charitable contributions (including those made to educational institutions which are separately reported in the Education and Manpower category) up to 5% of their income. In the absence of this provision of the tax code some of these contributions might be deductible as business expenses. PROPOSED CHANGES IN TAX EXPENDITURES The tax proposals that are a part of the 1976 budget would reduce nearly every estimated tax expenditure for 1975 and 1976 presented in table F - l . This is because the proposed reductions in individual and corporate tax rates and the increase in the minimum standard deduction would change income tax withholding on June 1, 1975. No attempt will be made here to reestimate each of the items. Several proposals do affect particular tax expenditures more specifically and these will be briefly discussed. The estimates for these specific changes are shown in table F-2. Table F-2. ESTIMATES OF PROPOSED CHANGES IN TAX EXPENDITURES (in millions of dollars) Description Excess of percentage standard deduction over minimum standard deduction Investment credit Residential conservation tax credit Corporations 1975 1976 1,000 2,300 Excess oj percentage standard deduction over minimum Individuals 1975 200 1976 -1,420 600 500 standard deduction.—The proposed increase in the minimum standard deduction to $2,000 ($2,600 on a joint return) would raise the amount of the minimum standard deduction above the current $2,000 maximum for the percentage standard deduction. This change in the normal tax structure would eliminate the tax expenditure that exists under current law. The revenue gain that would result from eliminating the percentage standard deduction is more than offset by the tax cut associated with increasing the minimum standard deduction. Eliminating the percentage standard deduction is not proposed apart from increasing the minimum standard deduction. Investment tax credit.—There would be an increase for 1 year in the investment tax credit to 12% for all taxpayers, including utilities (which presently have, in effect, a 4% credit). Utilities would continue to receive a 12% credit for 2 additional years for qualified investment in electrical generating facilities which are not oil or gas fired. SPECIAL ANALYSES 117 With respect to utilities, it includes a temporary increase in the amount of credit which may be used to offset income tax. Under current law, not more than 50% of the income tax liability for the year may be offset by the investment credit. Since many utilities have credits they have been unable to use because of this limitation, under this proposal utilities would be permitted to use the credit to offset up to 75% of tax liability for calendar 1975, 70% for 1976, and so on, until 1980, when they would in five annual steps have returned to the 50% limitation applicable to industry generally. The 12% credit would be available with respect to property placed in service during calendar 1975 and to property ordered during 1975 if placed in service before the end of 1976. The credit would also be available to the extent of construction, reconstruction, or erection of property by or for a taxpayer during 1975, without regard to the date ultimately placed in service. Similar rules would apply to investment in electrical generating facilities that are not oil or gas fired for which the 12% credit would continue through 1977. Residential conservation tax credit.—A 15% tax credit retroactive to January 1, 1975, for the cost of certain improvements in thermal efficiency in residences would be provided. Tax credits would apply to the first $1 thousand of expenditures and could be claimed during the next 3 years for an aggregate of $150. Deductibility of dividends on qualified preferred stocks.—To increase incentives for raising needed capital in the form of equity rather than debt it is proposed that dividends on qualified preferred stock be deductible for determining corporate income. Such dividends would not qualify for the 85% dividends received deduction. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G PRINCIPAL FEDERAL STATISTICAL PROGRAMS An overview of major statistical programs of the Federal Government is presented in this special analysis. In the 1976 budget there is a special emphasis on improvements in statistics which are needed by economic policymakers, especially those series which have deteriorated because of inflation or which will aid in understanding inflation better. A second area of emphasis is improvement in local area statistics; in particular, improved estimates of unemployment, estimates of children in poverty by State, and current population estimates for revenue sharing. Allowance is also made for selected improvements in other major program areas. The 1976 budget for current statistics provides for an increase of 10% from $449.3 million to a level of $492.5 million. The increase for 1976 includes $7.4 million to respond to the needs related to inflation and $11.5 million for improvements in local-area measurement. Together these initiatives account* for 44% of the total increase in current programs. Total periodic programs will increase in 1976 from $33.2 million to $36.9 million. The major focus of periodic programs during 1976 will be active planning for the 20th decennial census and the 1977 economic censuses and data processing and analysis associated with revision of the Consumer Price Index and the 1974 Census of Agriculture. The Office of Management and Budget, with the cooperation and participation of the major statistical agencies, is increasing its efforts to improve planning for statistical programs. One of the objectives is the development of a comprehensive plan for statistical programs in the 1980s. In 1976 considerable effort will be devoted to the planning process associated with statistical programs with the expectation that by the conclusion of calendar year 1977 a comprehensive plan for long-range development of statistics will be available for consideration. A number of interagency committees are presently working to resolve statistical issues relating to problems such as the definition of poverty levels, development of improved productivity measures, establishing data specifications for the 1980 Census, and making improvements in specific data series. 118 SPECIAL ANALYSES 119 Table G-1. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL CURRENT STATISTICAL PROGRAMS, BY BROAD SUBJECT AREAS 1 (dollars in millions) 1974 1975 1976 Labor statistics Prices and price indexes Production and distribution statistics Housing and construction statistics National economic and businessfinancialaccounts Energy statistics 2 Environmental statistics 61.9 13.4 67.9 13.9 35.7 8.7 25.8 78.7 17.5 78.8 15.0 36.6 28.0 32.2 82.9 19.6 90.2 17.1 40.1 28.4 31.9 Subtotal for economic and related statistics 227.3 286.8 310.2 82.6 6.5 15.6 27.0 12.9 90.0 5.5 21.4 30.5 15.1 94.1 6.8 38.7 29.3 13.4 Subtotal for demographic, social, and related statistics 144.6 162.5 182.3 Total, principal current programs 371.9 449.3 492. 5 Health statistics _ Population statistics Educational statistics Criminal justice statistics Income maintenance and welfare statistics 1 2 Classifications are based on primary use of statistics. Includes items classified differently in previous years. IMPROVEMENTS IN STATISTICS RELATED TO INFLATION The preparation of the 1976 statistical budget reflected an important review of the immediate needs of economic policymakers undertaken by the Subcommittee on Economic Statistics of the Economic Policy Board. The subcommittee was particularly concerned with the quality of statistical measurement of: (1) business inventories, (2) exportimport prices, (3) wholesale prices, (4) farm income, and (5) wage rates, earnings, and employment levels. The 1976 budget proposes program increases in each of these areas of concern. Business inventories ($0.6 million).—The measurement of inventory change has long been troublesome in the estimating of gross national product data. Recent patterns of rapid price changes have highlighted deficiencies in current inventory estimates. Several specific projects have been included in the Social and Economic Statistics Administration's budget to improve the statistics in this difficult area. A mandatory annual survey of inventories of merchant wholesalers will be introduced for rebenchmarking the monthly inventory estimates and improving the overall quality of the monthly survey. The Census Bureau will conduct a project to determine whether the monthly wholesale inventory panel could be based on a fixed panel of reporters. The present methodology exhibits a bias in wholesale inventory estimates which is suspected to be due to the rotating of firms into and out of the sample. 120 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 A detailed survey of the recordkeeping practices of manufacturing firms will be taken to explore inventory valuation methods and the frequency of physical inventory calculations with special attention to some of the more volatile industries. A feasibility study will be conducted to see whether the monthly retail inventory panel can be expanded from 2,000 reports per month to 15,000 reports per month by adding the inventory questions to the monthly retail sales survey without reducing the quality of the retail trade estimates. Expert consultants and Government statisticians will be employed to explore in depth the most pressing issues in inventory statistics methodology and to make recommendations concerning future avenues of improvement. Export-import prices ($1.2 million).—With the growing importance of foreign trade and the policy implications of rapidly changing world prices, it is important to improve export-import price data. The 1976 budget includes funds to speed up the program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics so that 60% of exports and 40% of imports will be covered by the end of the period. Wholesale prices ($0.5 million).—Planned improvements in the Wholesale Price Index for 1976 include expansion of the use of probability sampling, accelerating the program to obtain transaction prices where list prices are currently being reported, and improvement in the underlying concepts including more attention to the stage of processing approach. New weights, based on the 1972 economic census, will be employed. Farm income ($3.6 million).—Estimates of farm income for 1973 were significantly revised in June 1974. Some of the important components are available currently while others, available only with a long time lag, must be estimated based on the continuation of past relationships. When the data which had been estimated became available in 1974, it appeared that past relationships had been broken in serious and significant ways. For example, rapid changes in prices caused farmers to change their inventory behavior. New steps are therefore required to develop more timely and accurate statistics to measure this phenomenon. The highest priority for the Economic Research Service of the Department of Agriculture in 1976 will be the development of an annual economic survey of farmers. This survey will include data on marketing patterns, ownership of inventories on and off the farm, purchases and sales of livestock, inventories of purchased inputs at the end of the taxable year, and the cost of production of cattle and hogs. The Statistical Reporting Service will develop and maintain a comprehensive list sample frame of farmers for this and other surveys. Wages, earnings, and employment ($1.5 million).—In order to develop more consistent and complete data on wages and employment to meet the needs of policymakers and private decisionmakers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will undertake or continue several projects in 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSES 121 The General Wage Index program will be expanded from its current industry coverage, which focuses on the private nonfarm sector, toward the goal of including all sectors of the economy. Research on nonwage costs will be undertaken. Resources are recommended for the current employment statistics program to conduct research and experimentation to test alternative approaches for counteracting a downward bias in current employment estimates believed to be due to failure to include new establishments in the program sample during the period of initial hiring. In addition, the quality of the sample used for preliminary estimates will be strengthened and research on sample and estimation methodology will be conducted. Instead of mail, teleprocessing techniques will be used by States to send data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Funds are recommended to develop revised procedures for processing State quarterly employment and payroll data (the ES-202 program) and for monitoring State performance to improve the timeliness and quality of the data, which are important for making wage estimates in the national accounts and for benchmarking the current employment statistics (790) program. IMPROVEMENTS IN LOCAL-AREA ESTIMATES Population, per capita income, and government expenditure esti- mates.—In the past few years there has been significant legislation which requires the Census Bureau to provide official estimates between censuses. The Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 (Public Law 92-225), for example, requires annual estimates of the voting age population by congressional district. General revenue sharing requires periodic estimates of the population, per capita income, and government revenue for approximately 39,000 governmental jurisdictions. The Census Bureau will generate the required estimates using a variety of sources such as birth and death registration, school enrollment, building permits and demolitions, social security data, Immigration and Naturalization Service data, Internal Revenue Service data, and other information available from local sources. In 1976 the Census Bureau will obligate approximately $2.3 million, an increase of $0.6 million over the 1975 level, to generate population estimates and estimates of per capita income; an additional $1.3 million will be used to conduct a survey of revenues of States and local units of government. Unemployment estimates.—National unemployment estimates are developed through the Current Population Survey (CPS), a household survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Department of Labor. In 1975 the Department of Labor provided for the design of an expanded CPS sample to obtain data for each State that could be used both directly as inputs into the distribution formulas for the Comprehensive Employment Training Act of 1973 (CETA) and as State-level controls against which State and local-area data developed through the use of administrative records could be benchmarked. For 1076 the Manpower Vdministratio* will provide funding from CETA title III funds to produce such da4 for all States on an average annual basis. It is expected that this sample augmentation— 122 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 principally to take place in the less populous States—will also improve the national data with regard to minorities. Children in poverty.—The educational amendments of 1974 require that a survey be conducted to provide current State estimates of the number of school-age children (ages 5-17) living in families with incomes below the poverty threshold. Data from this survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census in consultation with the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (DHEW) are scheduled to become available late in calendar 1976. A simultaneous research effort is being carried out by the DHEW and the Department of Commerce to determine the feasibility of providing updated counts of the number of children from families in poverty by school district in order to make adjustments in grants which local education agencies receive under title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965. STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENTS IN MAJOR PROGRAM AREAS SOCIAL STATISTICS Health statistics.—A $3.6 million increase is provided for the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in 1976. With this increase, NCHS will continue development of a Federal-State-local cooperative health statistics system. In this system responsibility for identification of the data elements to be collected and the costs of this collection will be shared by the three levels of Government. The data elements are chosen to meet the needs of the Federal Government as well as those of the State and local governments. Responsibility for collection of the data eventually will lie with the States and localities. Other changes in health statistics reflect increases in areas where Federal programs or responsibilities have been expanding. The Consumer Product Safety Commission has an additional $1.6 million to fulfill the requirement of the Consumer Product Safety Act of 1970 to estimate and analyze the economic impact of proposed standards and regulations on both industry and the consumer, and to encourage additional input from consumers on products which may represent unreasonable risks of injury to consumers. The Center for Disease Control has a $1.5 million increase for maintenance of its surveillance system on occupational hazards, injuries, and illnesses resulting from the work environment, and statistical analysis of the coal mine medical examination program. The statistical activities of the National Cancer Institute have been increased $0.5 million for environmental carcinogenesis studies, completion of the third national cancer survey, studies of high-risk groups, and studies of the relationships between cancers, congenital defects, and other diseases. The statistical activities of the National Heart and Lung Institute have also been increased ($0.3 million) to give added statistical support to the three major ongoing clinical trials. These trials are important for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease. Educational statistics.—The 1976 budget includes an increase of $8.9 million for the statistical activities of the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES). Significant new activities of the Center will SPECIAL ANALYSES 123 include several new surveys and the establishment of an interagency consortium to provide Government agencies, the Congress, and the public better access to educational data. The new surveys deal with: (1) types of education outside of the traditional primary, secondary, and higher education sequence; (2) teacher supply and demand; (3) educational needs of individuals of limited Englishspeaking ability; and (4) longitudinal observation of the high school class of 1978. The national assessment of educational progress and Federal/State cooperative statistical programs will continue to be major activities of NCES. Several major educational surveys required by the educational amendments of 1974 will be initiated by other agencies. The Office of Education (OE) will initiate a longitudinal study to assess the sustaining effects of title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965. OE will also conduct a survey to ascertain the rates of participation of economically and educationally disadvantaged children in title I programs. The National Institute of Education will study the purposes and effectiveness of compensatory education programs in the Nation. The Bureau of the Census will conduct a special study to produce State estimates for 1976 of the number of children 5-17 years of age from families in poverty. Income maintenance and welfare statistics.—A net decrease of $1.7 million for income maintenance statistics reflects the completion of field work and initial data processing for the survey of the low income, aged, and disabled population, and a number of the surveys of the disabled. The decrease of $2.3 million in these areas was partially offset by an increase of $0.5 million in surveys of the social and economic status of the retired population and of young survivors and other young beneficiaries. The 1976 budget provides for continued work on the planning and development of an improved data base for the program of aid to families with dependent children and for better information about the types of social services provided. Funds are also provided for small projects designed to improve the measurement of noncash income, the preparation of special poverty tabulations, and further extension of the longitudinal study of family economics. Criminal justice statistics.—The 1976 budget provides $29.3 million for criminal justice statistics programs in the Department of Justice, a net decrease of $1.2 million from 1975. The Federal-State-local cooperative statistics program, however, will continue to receive priority attention within the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (LEAA). These funds enable the States to develop comprehensive crime and criminal justice statistics and provide the mechanism for analysis for planning and evaluation. LEAA funds will continue to provide sample data on the incidence of common crime, its costs, and characteristics of victims and criminal events. Efforts will continue to improve further the scope and quality of the uniform crime reports of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Early warning on the abuse of some 2,500 dangerous drug substances will be provided by 1,300 early warning facilities located in 29 metropolitan areas established by the Drug Enforcement Administration. 124 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 ECONOMIC STATISTICS Wage statistics.—In 1976 the Bureau of Labor Statistics will undertake improvements in the professional, administrative, technical, and clerical wage survey (PATC), which is used for establishing comparability between Federal and private pay systems ($0.4 million). It is anticipated that bonus payments will be included in the survey, and the industry and establishment-size scope will be expanded. Production and distribution statistics.—Improvement and updating of the sample panels are proposed for the current surveys of retail, service, and wholesale trade to reflect the 1972 revisions in the standard industrial classification and the information collected in the 1972 economic censuses on kind of business, geographic area, and size of firm or establishment. These new samples, to be developed for introduction in 1977, will insure continued comparability and usefulness of the information derived from these important up-to-date measures of the state of the U.S. economy ($1.0 million). Funds are budgeted to initiate a rotating series of benchmark surveys of industries for which complete information is required more frequently than every five years. Industries which are important users of scarce resources, such as fuel and water, will be surveyed more frequently than other industries, although the program provides for some flexibility in scheduling as new situations arise ($0.4 million). The Department of Agriculture's Statistical Reporting Service will continue its research cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration into the practical use of signals transmitted by the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS-1) for generating information on agriculture production as related to ground truth ($0.6 million). A pilot test of a survey of the performance, costs, capacity, and other aspects of the nonfarm portion of the food industry will be made to determine whether it would be productive to add such questions to the economic censuses or to conduct other surveys ($0.3 million). The statistical portion of an Economic Research Service study to explore the factors influencing foreign demand for U.S. agricultural exports will require $0.2 million. The budget also includes $1.3 million for the Agricultural Research Service to initiate a national food consumption survey which will provide information for monitoring trends in food consumption, determining the nutrient value of diets of various population groups and income levels, and facilitating the development of programs in food production, marketing, and distribution. One of the most important applications of data from this survey is its use in the estimation of the population in poverty. Several programs which contributed marginally to the Statistical Reporting Service's mission, e.g., surveys of timber prices, mushrooms, mink, and floriculture production, will be discontinued in 1976 (—$1.0 million). National economic and business financial accounts.—The recently initiated program to develop information on commodity imports valued inclusive of ocean insurance and freight charges (c.i.f.) will be SPECIAL ANALYSES 125 enhanced by collecting data on the imports from foreign affiliated companies valued as though the importer and the exporter were not related (arms-length transactions). In addition, expansion in U.S. international commodity trade is expected in 1976 to result in a 20% increase over 1974 levels in the number of import and export documents to be processed by the Census Bureau, only part of which can be accommodated by increases in productivity ($1.4 million). Funds are programed to complete the benchmark survey of foreign direct investments in the United States as required by the Foreign Investment Study Act of 1974 ($0.5 million). This survey, including information on financial, employment, and operating data as well as detailed balance-of-payments and investment position data, will be coordinated with a similar survey on foreign portfolio investment in the United States to be conducted by the Treasury Department under the exchange stabilization fund. In recent years, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has developed, improved, and updated the methodology for producing annual estimates of the distribution of the comprehensive personal income component of the gross national product accounts, classified by size and family characteristics, including money and nonmoney income. In 1976, this series will be established as an annual publication with a large amount of detail on the type of income received and the age, race, and sex classifications of the recipient individuals and families. In another BEA effort, the national input-output tables will be expanded to add detail on the use and production of energy and other potentially scarce materials. This information will be useful in evaluating the impact on U.S. energy consumption of alternative policies and of different industry growth patterns ($0.5 million). Housing and construction statistics,—An additional $2.1 million for construction and housing statistics principally reflects the increased cost of the annual housing survey during 1976. Tabulations for 1973, which was the first year of the national sample, will be released in March 1975. An advance report of the data for 1974 is scheduled for release during the summer of 1975. The basic construction and housing statistics program includes statistical series on construction activity, building permits, housing starts, construction progress, alterations, repairs, and construction price indexes. Energy statistics.—In previous special analyses, energy and energyrelated data have been included in the various other subject areas within economic statistics. This year, however, because of their national importance and interest, single and joint-purpose statistics relating to energy are displayed separately. The principal collectors of energy information include the Bureau of Mines (Department of the Interior), the Federal Power Commission and the Bureau of the Census. The focal point for energy (and energy-related) statistics, however, is the Federal Energy Administration (FEA). During 1975, FEA organized and began operation of the National Energy Information Center which serves as the interagency clearinghouse for energy information. In addition, the Federal Energy Administration's Office of Data collects information not provided by other sources, analyzes 126 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 and evaluates requirements for energy data, and prepares reports and disseminates information. Particular responsibilities include reports required by Congress, such as the independent petroleum reserves survey and a market shares analysis for branded versus nonbranded gasoline at the wholesale distributor and retail levels. Other functions, performed in the Office of Policy and Analysis, include data processing support for the fuel allocation program, analytical support for Project Independence, and developing and refining long-range supply/demand balancing models. For 1976, additional initiatives include evaluation of data related to the impact of alternative energy policies on individuals in different income groups. Environmental statistics.—The major program areas of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (air, water, noise, and pesticides) continue to be supported by the collection of regulatory data and special statistical surveys. During 1975 a number of experimental surveys have also been undertaken to coordinate energy/environmental evaluations for power generation plants, to assess community perceptions and implicit economic trade-offs in selected pollution abatement areas, and to explore the pollutant sensitivity of the demand for water-related recreation. In addition, other agencies are collecting data with environmental implications, e.g., Bureau of the Census/Bureau of Economic Analysis on expenditures for pollution abatement and Bureau of the Census/National Science Foundation on industrial research and development for pollution abatement. Funding in 1976 will provide opportunities for improved data retrieval and coordination within EPA, enhanced quality control of surveys to be conducted, and increased interagency coordination of data relating to the environment. PERIODIC PROGRAMS 1977 Census of Governments.—Preparation for taking the 1977 Census of Governments will continue in 1976 with questionnaire design, planning for the processing of the data, and an identification, count, and classification of all local governmental units. 1977 economic censuses.—Funds are provided to conduct the initial work for the 1977 economic censuses, which are central to producing estimates of the national economic accounts, Industrial Production Index, and input-output tables. Plans and specifications will be developed for collection, processing, and publishing, and the content of the survey forms will be reexamined. The Census Bureau will conduct feasibility studies to determine which of the items recommended in the interim report of the gross national product data improvement project are feasible for addition to the economic census program. 1974 Census oj Agriculture.—The quinquennial census of agriculture provides extensive detail on the U.S. food and fibre economy with detail published to the county level. The data collection, processing, and tabulation phases of the 1974 Census of Agriculture, SPECIAL ANALYSES 127 referring to calendar year 1974, will be largely completed in 1976; many State and local reports will be published; and the evaluation phase will be undertaken. 1978 Census of Agriculture.—Legislation will be proposed to accelerate the conduct of the next census of agriculture and eventually to synchronize the taking of future censuses with the quinquennial economic censuses which are conducted for the years which have two or seven as a last digit. The advantage of this proposal to develop a complete canvass of U.S. economic activity, both agricultural and nonagricultural, referring to the same period is that it facilitates consistent coverage, classification, and nonduplication of economic activities and provides an exhaustive picture of the interrelationships among all sectors of the economy. Under this plan the subsequent censuses would be conducted for 1982 and every 5 years thereafter. Preparation jor the Twentieth Decennial Census.—In 1976 funds are included to continue preparations for the 1980 Census. The efforts over the last several years to provide Federal funds to State and local governments on a formula basis have increased reliance on the census for benchmark data. In addition to population counts other data, such as information on income, family size and composition, and housing conditions, are critical to funding and policy decisions. 1976 is the third planning year for the 1980 Census. A series of pretests is planned to examine: (1) coverage improvement, (2) extension of the mail method of data collection, (3) alternative processing approaches, (4) question wording, and (5) questionnaire formats. The major groups of activities ($0.8 million) will involve new mapping and related geographic activities, the development of a decentralized processing capability, and improvement in data dissemination vehicles. Liaison between the Census Bureau and various advisory groups will reach a period of maximum activity during 1976. Periodic programs geographic support.—This program provides the capability to produce data accurately coded by geographic regions of the country by maintaining geographic reference files for small areas and jurisdictions. The boundary and coding guide system is being extended to the present boundaries of each standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) including the 37 newly established SMSA's. The geographic base file program will be supplemented in 1976 by the updating of the files for communities with population between 2,500 and 10,000. This activity supports major Census Bureau programs including the forthcoming 1977 economic censuses and other large-scale surveys. Revision of the Consumer Price Index.—Work is proceeding on schedule toward revision of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The revision will utilize consumer expenditure weights based on the 1972-73 consumer expenditure survey and will incorporate substantial methodological improvements. During 1976, work should progress to compilation of the revised index on a test basis. Publication of the revised CPI is scheduled for 1977. 128 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Revision oj series to 1972^ standard industrial classification.—The 1976 budget includes $1.3 million to increase comparability among statistical series produced by the Federal Government through conversion of all BLS establishment-based series to the revised (1972) standard industrial classification (SIC). Such conversion will permit comparative analyses of current and previous data. In 1976, BLS will initiate retabulation and benchmarking of all national, State, and local series affected by the revisions in the SIC. Major programs affected include the Quarterly Keport of Insured Employment and Wages (ES 202), the Current Employment Statistics (BLS-790), and the Labor Turnover Statistics (DL-1219) statistical systems. Table G-2. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL PROGRAMS, BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Agency 1976 1975 1974 CURRENT PROGRAMS Department of Agriculture: • Agricultural Research Service • Economic Research Service • Foreign Agricultural Service _ Statistical Reporting Service ___ Department of Commerce: • Domestic and International Business Administration • Economic Development Administration • National Bureau of Fire Prevention _ • National Marine Fisheries Service _ l Social and Economic Statistics Administration Department of Defense: • Corps of Engineers __ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: • Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration • Center for Disease Control • Food and Drug Administration Health Resources Administration: • National Center for Health Statistics • Other Health Resources Administration • Health Services Administration National Center for Educational Statistics • National Institutes of Health • Office of Education • Social and Rehabilitation Service _ • Social Security Administration • Office of Assistant Secretary for Human Development • Office of Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. _ • Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior: • Bureau of Mines • Fish and Wildlife Service • Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration Department of Justice: • Drug Enforcement Administration • Federal Bureau of Investigation • Law Enforcement Assistance Administration .2 4.8 .5 5.8 .3 30.7 1.8 7.6 .6 34.2 2.0 41.4 5.6 .5 .2 2.0 49.6 5.8 .5 1.1 1.9 55.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 14.8 2.6 2.2 7.0 3.2 2.4 7.1 4.7 2.4 18.7 6.7 1.7 15.6 22.3 25.6 1.6 19.4 .2 2.1 8.8 22.0 1.2 1.8 13.1 23.0 8.3 2.1 33.3 .3 2.8 8.5 2.9 4.0 1.6 3.2 4.3 2.0 3.5 4.3 2.0 .8 2.0 24.8 1.1 2.6 27.6 1.1 2.8 26.2 26.0 5.0 .8 1.8 22.0 23.9 16.7 2.3 29.7 .3 3.1 10.0 'SPECIAL ANALYSES 129 Table G-2. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars)—Continued 1974 actual Agency CURRENT PROGRAMS, 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 38.0 .6 20. 7 5.1 48.4 53.7 1.4 4.0 1.5 7.2 PROGRAMS—Continued Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics • Employment Standards Administration • Manpower Administration • Occupational Safety and Health Administration Department of Transportation: • Office of the Secretary • Federal Highway Administration • Federal Railroad Administration • National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Department of the Treasury: • Office of the Secretary • Internal Revenue Service • U.S. Customs Service __ Civil Aeronautics Board Consumer Product Safety Commission Environmental Protection Agency Federal Energy Administration Federal Home Loan Bank Board Federal Power Commission Federal Trade Commission Interstate Commerce Commission National Science Foundation Securities and Exchange Commission Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention __ _ Total, current programs .6 .6 30.1 31.0 5.5 5.6 1.7 4.1 1.0 7.8 2.5 4.2 1.1 9.3 .6 .1 12.4 12.8 3.2 1.7 4.2 3.2 2.0 5.8 27.1 23.1 26.8 23.1 2.3 1.8 1.2 1.0 3.3 .6 1.0 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.1 3.0 .7 371.9 449,3 492.5 .7 .6 10.4 .2 .4 6.0 1.5 8.9 .1 16.5 2.9 1.5 2.1 21.4 5.0 2.2 1.5 .8 1.0 2.8 .6 .5 PERIODIC PROGRAMS Department of Commerce: Social and Economic Statistics Administration: 1972 Census of Governments 1977 Census of Governments 1972 economic censuses 1977 economic censuses 1974 Census of Agriculture 1978 Census of Agriculture 1970 decennial census 1980 decennial c e n s u s . . . . . . Intercensal demographic estimates Periodic programs geographic support Data processing equipment General administration and other Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Revision of Consumer Price Index Standard industrial classification revision program Total, periodic programs Total, principal statistical programs 1 Includes Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis. • = Covers only funds for agency's statistical activities. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 580-700 O - 75 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .7 .5 1.6 3.8 9.1 .9 — 4.3 1.8 2.7 4.1 1.2 .7 1.3 2.8 1.5 2.0 3.8 1.0 9.6 6.6 7.1 1.3 27.0 33.2 36.9 398.9 482.5 529.4 SPECIAL ANALYSIS H CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH Total Federal civilian employment in the executive branch as of June 30, 1974, was 2,793,877. This is a decrease of 226,088 positions, or 7.5%, since June 1968. For the period from June 30, 1974, through June 30, 1975, total employment is estimated to increase by nearly 7,900 positions, and will remain level through June 30, 1976. FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT Full-time permanent employment totaled 2,479,779 as of June 30, 1974. This is a decrease of 151,216 permanent positions, or nearly 5.8% since June 1968. Excluding the Postal Service, the remainder of the executive branch gained 41,887 full-time permanent employees between June 30, 1973, and June 30, 1974, but was still about 26,400 below the 1974 estimate, as shown in the 1975 budget. With the objective of minimizing the increase in full-time permanent employment, the President announced on August 31, 1974, his goal of holding Federal civilian employment in the executive branch (exclusive of the Postal Service) on June 30, 1975, to 1,928,100 or 40,000 below the estimate for June 30, 1975, as shown in the 1975 budget. The estimates presented in table H-l project executive branch fulltime permanent employment (excluding the Postal Service) at 1,930,700 or within 2,600 of the goal, despite the fact that significant increases were necessary in manpower, veterans, and energy programs. Each executive agency head has been directed to hold employment so that the levels shown will not be exceeded. He has also been asked to minimize hiring to the extent feasible. It is expected that a number of agencies will have lower actual employment than the estimate shown and that the President's goal will be attained. The projected total for June 30, 1976, is 1,947,600, which includes an allowance for contingencies of 5,000. Of this number, which excludes the Postal Service, 50% work for the Department of Defense and 10% for the Veterans Administration. Table H-l displays the year-end full-time permanent employment, and projected changes, by major agency. 130 -SPECIAL ANALYSES 131 Table H I . SUMMARY OF FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH As of June 30 1 Agency Agriculture Commerce Defense—military functions Defense—civil functions Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development,.._ Interior2 Justice Labor___ State Transportation Treasury Energy Research and Development Administration2 Environmental Protection Agency,.. General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration.... Other: Agency for International Development Civil Service Commission Federal Energy Administration 2 .. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 2__ Panama Canal Selective Service System Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority United States Information Agency. Miscellaneous . Subtotal Contingencies3 Subtotal Postal Service _ Total 1974 actual 1975 estimate — In 1975 Current budget 79,621 28,549 973,778 29,072 126,692 15,021 56,558 48,188 80,200 29,100 995,900 29,100 126,200 14,200 56,100 51,000 80,200 28,700 960,800 29,300 127,300 15,200 57,900 49,900 1976 estimate 81,100 28,600 953,300 28,800 128,300 15,200 58,800 50,800 Change 1975-76 900 -100 -7,500 -500 1,000 900 900 12,788 13,000 13,600 13,700 100 22,644 69,524 104,391 23,400 71,300 111,400 23,200 69,900 109,000 23,300 72,000 112,500 100 2,100 3,500 6,736 9,144 36,733 6,900 9,200 38,000 7,400 9,200 36,400 7,600 9,300 36,700 200 100 300 24,854 174,515 24,600 181,800 24,300 186,200 24,300 195,700 9,500 8,961 6,190 2,002 1,538 13,841 2,333 3, 957 14,001 8,829 35,844 9,500 6, 300 3,300 1,900 14,100 2,200 4,300 14,400 9,100 36,600 8,700 6, 400 3,100 2,100 13,800 2,200 4,200 14,100 9,000 38,600 8,500 6, 700 1, 700 2,300 13,800 1,700 4,200 15,100 9,000 39,600 -200 300 - 1 , 400 200 1,916,304 1,963,100 5,000 1,930,700 1,942,600 5,000 11,900 5,000 1,916,304 1,968,100 1,930,700 563,475 534,700 556,800 1,947,600 541,200 16,900 -15,600 2,479,779 2,502,800 2,487,500 2,488,800 1,300 -500 1,000 1,000 1 Excludes developmental positions under the worker-trainee opportunity program and certain disadvantaged youth programs. 2 Adjusted for comparability purposes to reflect the change from the Atomic Energy Commission to the Energy Research and Development Administration and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, both of which were activated January 19, 1975. Positions were transferred from the Atomic Energy Commission and the Department of the Interior to staff these new agencies. 3 Subject to later distribution. 132 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 The majority of the domestic agencies will have small increases in employment from 1975 to 1976. Several will need moderate increases to meet additional program requirements, including: (a) Increased research efforts in livestock and food production and nutrition as well as intensified land management efforts (Department of Agriculture); (b) Increased workload in the areas of education, health, and social rehabilitation activities (Department of Health, Education, and Welfare); (c) Expanded Federal energy programs (Interior Department, Energy Research and Development Administration); (d) Increased activity in the areas of law enforcement, litigation, and investigation (Justice Department); (e) Improved capabilities in air traffic control, aids to navigation, and search and rescue (Transportation Department); (f) Intensified bank examining activities, expanded collection activities, and increases in the number of tax returns audited (Treasury Department); (g) Expanded and improved veterans' medical care (Veterans Administration); and (h) Requirements for increased services and benefits that relate to the growth of the Nation's population. These increases are partially offset by projected decreases in the Department of Defense, the Postal Service and smaller decreases in some other agencies. TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT In 1976, full-time permanent employees will comprise about 89% of all civilian employees in the executive branch. The remaining 11% covers part-time employees, intermittent employees (those employed on an irregular basis) and full-time temporary employees (those in positions occupied for less than a }rear). As used in table H-2, "Total Federal Government employment" includes civilian employees of the legislative and judicial branches, the civilian employees of the executive branch (as previously described) and military personnel. The end of American involvement in the Vietnam war as well as a reduction in cold war tensions in recent years have contributed to a significant shift in the size and distribution of the total Federal workforce. First, the overall size of the workforce, including military personnel on active duty, has decreased from about 6.6 million on June 30, 1968, to about 5 million on June 30, 1974, or nearly one-quarter. Second, the proportion of Department of Defense personnel (active duty military and civilians) to total Federal Government employment has decreased from 74% in 1968 to 64% in 1974. This Defense component is projected to decrease further, to about 62% in 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSES 133 Table H-2. TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT As of June 30 Description 1974 actual Civilian employment in the executive branch: Full-time permanent* (excluding Postal Service) Other than full-time permanent2 (excluding Postal Service) Subtotal 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1,916, 304 1,930,700 1,947,600 175,978 174,500 178,600 2,092,282 2,105,200 2,126,200 Postal Service: Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal Military personnel on active duty: Department of Defense3 Department of Transportation (Coast Guard) Subtotal 563,475 138,120 556,800 139,800 541,200 134,400 701,595 696,600 675,600 2,161,162 2,129,000 2,100,000 36, 730 37, 500 37,800 2,197,892 2,166,500 2,137,800 Total Legislative and judicial personnel:4 Full-time permanent Other than full-time permanent Subtotal 4,991,769 4,968,300 4,939,600 27,887 18,009 45,896 Grand total 5,037,665 1 2 Excludes developmental positions under the Worker-Trainee Opportunity program. Excludes disadvantaged summer and part-time workers under Civil Service Commission programs such as summer-aides, stay-in-school, and junior fellowship. 3 Excludes Reserve components. 4 1975 and 1976 estimates are not available. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS Direct compensation of the Federal workforce includes regular pay, Sunday and holiday pay, premium pay for overtime, differentials for night work and overseas duty, and flight and other hazardous duty pay. Related compensation in the form of personnel benefits consists primarily of the Government's share (as employer) of health insurance; term life insurance; and Federal retirement and old-age survivors' and disability insurance. Some additional benefits are uniform allowances (when paid in cash), cost-of-living and quarters allowances, and, in the case of uniformed military personnel, reenlistment bonuses, and allowances for subsistence. 134 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table H-3. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS (in millions of dollars) Description Civilian personnel costs: Executive branch: l Direct compensation Personnel benefits Subtotal Legislative and judiciary: Direct compensation Personnel benefits 1974 actual 1975 estimate 26,553 4,935 29,100 5,960 30,340 7,160 31,488 35,060 37,500 421 36 490 40 530 50 457 530 580 2 Subtotal Allowance for civilian pay raise Total, civilian personnel costs Military personnel costs: Direct compensation 1976 estimate 980 31,945 35,590 39,060 3 17,906 18,630 18,430 Personnel benefits 4,566 4,580 4,700 Subtotal 22,472 23,210 23,130 Allowance for military pay raise 830 Total, military personnel costs 22,472 23,210 23,960 Grand total, personnel costs 54,417 58,800 63,020 1 Excludes Postal Service pay, reflecting conversion to independent status, consistent with the Postal Service Reorganization Act of 1970. 2 Excludes Members and officers of Congress. 3 Excludes Reserve components. Obligations for civilian personnel compensation and benefits in 1976 are projected to be $39.1 billion, excluding the Postal Service. The estimated costs for civilian and military pay increases for 1976 are covered by lump sum allowances in the 1976 budget. Under the Federal Pay Comparability Act, salary rates for Federal employees under the "General Schedule" and most other statutory pay systems are adjusted periodically so as to be related to rates paid for the same work levels in private enterprise. The bases for these adjustments are appropriate annual surveys conducted on a nationwide basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Legislation is being proposed to limit these pay increases to 5% in 1976. A high-level panel will be established to make policy recommendations to the President on how the Federal Government can best determine the appropriate level of total compensation for its employees under the principle of comparability with the private workforce. Current law provides that pay scales for blue-collar workers under the Federal wage-board system are to be adjusted annually so as to achieve rates corresponding to the prevailing area rates in private industry. Legislation will also be sought to limit these adjustments to 5% until June 30, 1976. 135 SPECIAL ANALYSES The current wage board pay law requires the use of wage rate data outside of the local area involved. Legislation will be proposed to repeal this feature, so that the process for determining Federal wage rates is more consistent with the long-standing principle that such rates will be comparable with prevailing area rates. POPULATION AND GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT COMPARISONS The proportion of Federal civilian employment relative to total employment of all governmental units (Federal, State, and local) is projected at 18.6% for 1976. As the accompanying table H-4 illustrates, the Federal proportion of all governmental employment has declined significantly over the last two decades. Government Civilian Employment «946 End of Fiscal Year 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 Estimate 136 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table H-4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION, 1946-76 Government employment 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951.. _ 1952 1953. 1954 1955. . . . 1956 1957.. . . 1958 1959 2 I960 19612 1962 19633 19643 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969* 19702 197P 1972 1973 . . . 1974 1975 (cst.) 1976 (est.). Federal State and branch l (thousands) ments (thousands) 2,666 2,082 2,044 2,075 1,934 2,456 2,574 2,532 2,382 2,371 2.372 2,391 2,355 2,355 2,371 2,407 2,485 2,490 2,469 2,496 2,664 2,877 2,951 2,980 2,884 2,823 2,770 2,722 2,794 2,802 2,802 3,305 3,568 3,776 3,906 4,078 4,031 4,134 4.282 4,552 4,728 5.064 5.380 5.630 5,806 6,073 6,295 6,533 6,834 7,236 7,683 8,259 8,730 9,141 9,496 9,869 10,257 10.640 11.065 11,501 (5) (5) mental units (thousands) 5,971 5,650 5,820 5,981 6,012 6,487 6,708 6,814 6,934 7,099 7,436 7,771 7.985 8.161 8.444 8,702 9,018 9,324 9,705 10.179 10,923 11,607 12,092 12,476 12,753 13,080 13,410 13,787 14,295 Population percent of all governmental units 44.6 36.8 35.1 34.7 32.2 37.9 38.4 37.2 34.4 33.4 31.9 30.8 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.7 25.4 24.5 24.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 22.6 21.6 20.7 19.7 19.5 19.1 18.6 United States (thousands) 141,936 144.698 147,208 149,767 152,271 154,878 157,553 160,184 163,026 165,931 168,903 171,984 174,882 177,830 180,671 183.691 186,538 189,242 191,889 194,303 196,560 198,712 200,706 202,677 204,875 207,045 208,842 210,396 211,909 213,651 215,379 Federal employment per 1,000 population 18.8 14.4 13.9 13.9 12.7 15.9 16.3 15.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.8 13.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.3 12.9 13.2 13.1 13.0 1 Covers total end-of-year employment in full-time permanent, temporary, part-time, and intermittent positions except for summer workers under the President's Youth Opportunity Camfr worker-trainee programs. paign; and beginning in 1970, excludes various disadvantaged wo 2 3 Includes temporary employees for the decennial census. Excludes 7,411 project employees in 1963 and 406 project employees in 1964 for the public works acceleration program. 4 On Jan. 1, 1969, 42,000 civilian technicians of the Army and Air Force National Guard converted by law from State to Federal employment status. They are included in the Federal employment figures in this table after and including 1969. 5 An official projection of State and local government employment is not available. The percentages shown for these years are consistent with a range of reasonable estimates based on recent trends in population and State and local government activity. When compared to the Nation's population, the ratio of Federal civilian employment is estimated to be 13.0 per thousand in 1976, a ratio that (excepting the period 1966-70) has varied only slightly since 1960. Table H-4 includes temporary and part-time as well as full-time employment. PART 2 FEDERAL SOCIAL PROGRAMS 137 INTRODUCTION Part 2 furnishes Government-wide program and financial information in six social program areas—education, manpower, health, income security, civil rights, and crime reduction. It includes the special analyses designated I through N. The figures used in these analyses differ from the data shown under somewhat similarly titled categories of the functional classification used in Part 5 of the Budget and elsewhere. In the functional classification, each activity is categorized according to its major purpose; thus all the military spending of the Department of Defense falls into the functional category, National defense. In these special analyses, however, all spending for education, health, etc., is included, even if the activity has a different primary purpose. Thus the tabulations here are more comprehensive with regard to these particular types of social programs. Special Analysis I discusses education-related programs, including direct Federal activities, and programs that provide aid to States and localities, to institutions of higher education, and to students. Special Analysis J identifies the Federal programs designed to increase the skills and employment opportunities of persons already in the work force and of persons who desire to join the work force but lack vocational preparation or face other employment barriers. Special Analysis K summarizes Federal spending for health and health-related activities. Special Analysis L discusses Federal benefits to maintain or supplement income of persons and families whose capacity for self-support is reduced by old age, disability, illness, unemployment, poverty, or death of the primary wage earner. Special Analysis M identifies Federal spending for civil rights enforcement activities. Special Analysis N discusses the Federal crime reduction program, which complements activities of State and local governments. Federal assistance in the form of grants-in-aid, training, and technical assistance contributes to the effectiveness of State and local crime reduction programs. 138 SPECIAL ANALYSIS I FEDERAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS Federal expenditures for education-related programs will be $16.2 billion in 1976. These programs provide aid to State and local educational agencies, to institutions of higher education, to students, and certain direct Federal educationally related activities. The amounts included in this analysis are those which are directed toward supporting student-teacher relationships for the transmission of organized knowledge or the provision of services to the community at large aimed at expanding individuals' opportunities for professional or career advancement. (See Special Analysis P for further details on Federal research and development programs.) The analysis is organized by such criteria as Federal goal served, level of education, or by the type and institutional vehicle of support. This year, as in previous years, it covers all Federal programs which have the direct support of educational activities as a major purpose, or which involve the use of educational resources to achieve other purposes. It excludes amounts for noneducational research conducted at academic institutions which do not fall within the purposes described above. For comparability with the analyses that accompanied the 1973 and earlier budgets, these amounts are shown at the bottom of table 1-1. OVERVIEW: 1976 Total Federal education outlays will be $16.2 billion in 1976, a decrease of $271 million below the 1975 estimate, and an increase of $2.2 billion over 1974 outlays. Outlays for programs directed toward national education goals are estimated to be $8.6 billion, 3% above the estimated 1975 level. Within this total elementary and secondary education is estimated at $4.4 billion in 1976. This is only a slight decrease below the 1975 funding and a $300 million increase over the 1974 level. Outlays for higher education student support programs in the Education Division will reach an estimated $2.0 billion in 1976, an increase of 15% above the 1975 level, and 105% above the 1974 level. In addition, four tax expenditures, ranging in size from $0.2 billion to $0.7 billion each will also support higher education in 1976. Substantial Federal educationally related expenditures are directed toward activities whose purposes are not primarily educational. The Federal Government invests in the education of specialized manpower for many activities; the largest of which is defense related and the second largest of which is in the health field. An estimated $7.4 billion of outlays will be provided in 1976 which are beneficial to the interests of education but are directed toward other ancillary purposes. The 1976 estimate is 7% lower than the 1975 level of $8.0 billion. The largest components of this change are veterans readjustment, child nutrition and health manpower program reductions. 139 140 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 • Veterans.—The bases for the reductions are as follows: —Legislation has been proposed to repeal a 2-year extension of GI bill entitlement; —A slight drop in veteran enrollment under the GI bill, reflects a reduced volume of military separations. • Child nutrition.—The Administration proposal to substitute a bloc grant for the current set of fragmented and overlapping child feeding programs provides reimbursement only for needy children. In addition, a 5% limit is placed on program outlays which reflect changes in the food-away-from-home component of the Consumer Price Index. • Health manpower.—A reduction in health manpower spending reflects a policy of phasing out unnecessa^ institutional operating subsidies and categorical student scholarships and loan activities, as well as the elimination of construction grants to health professions and nursing schools. An additional quarter billion dollars will be provided in the form of payments for education of Federal employees, or their children. Table 1-1. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR EDUCATION Purpose and program Outlays (millions) 1974 actual Educationally deprived children Emergency school aid Federally affected areas Other ESEA Salaries and expenses Basic opportunity grants Other higher education student support (OE) Other higher education (OE) Student loan insurance fund Occupational, vocational, adult Educational development Education for the handicapped Library resources Other Office of Education National Institute of Education Special institutions Student grants (OASDI) Office of Human Development Other HEW Other 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1,460 205 559 207 77 49 837 290 84 570 246 123 150 30 97 113 937 414 106 427 1,599 207 631 292 112 451 1,099 260 176 631 160 125 169 54 82 135 1,053 443 110 516 1,755 122 371 439 105 502 1, 290 258 192 646 43 138 125 57 84 118 1,189 467 123 546 6,981 8,305 8,570 Federal outlays—education support for other basic purposes: Health manpower Veterans readjustment Defense Child nutrition Other 546 2,914 967 1,267 1.112 613 3,377 1,029 1,617 1,324 519 3,091 1,072 1,463 1,247 Subtotal, education support for other purposes 6,806 7,960 7,392 238 249 281 14,025 16,514 16,243 1,856 2,040 2,056 Subtotal, national education goals Federal outlays—salary supplements Total, education outlays . Amounts previously carried for academic research not directed toward educational objectives SPECIAL ANALYSES 141 RENEWAL AND REFORM The provision of basic educational services in the United States is the responsibility of the State and local educational authorities. The Federal role is devoted to developing and encouraging improvements in the educational process through research, innovation and reform, and to extending and assuring equal educational opportunity. To fulfill this role, the Administration has adopted a program of renewal and reform in education which includes: • Consolidation of certain categorical educational programs and the provision of advanced funding for most elementary and secondary education support (1-2 below). • Reform in the distribution of funding for the education of disadvantaged children. • A focusing of aid on school districts facing critical problems of desegregation. • Funding of basic educational opportunity grants of up to $1,400 for all eligible undergraduate postsecondary students. Table 1-2. 1977 APPROPRIATIONS AUTHORIZED TO BE PROVIDED IN 1976 (In thousands of dollars) 1977 budget authority requested in the 1976 budget Education of the disadvantaged Support and innovation Education of the handicapped Occupational, vocational, and adult education Libraries and instructional resources 1,900,000 172,888 50,000 67,500 137, 330 These activities, reauthorized under the Education Amendments of 1974, and funded in 1975 will provide funds for academic years 1974-75 and 1975-76, thereby making these programs advance funded. Support and innovation, as well as libraries and instructional resources, are consolidated education grant programs that place under two broad funding authorities several categorical programs previously funded individually. The aim of these new initiatives is to provide the States greater flexibility and responsibility in determining their own educational priorities and funding needs. New legislation is also being proposed for vocational education, impact aid and library resources. In addition, renewed emphasis will be placed on the relationship between education and work and upon educational research. 142 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Vocational education.—In 1976, support for activities previously authorized under the Vocational Education Act are being requested under proposed legislation. The legislative proposal would consolidate the present five State grant categorical programs for vocational education into a single basic grant program. The legislation will also incorporate into a single category the present innovation, curriculum development, research and special needs activities. The Federal role will shift substantially in 1976 from support services assistance to the support of innovative projects which will enable the States to improve their capacity for reforming the vocational education system. Individual innovative projects would be limited to 3 }^ears duration. Outlays for this legislative proposal are estimated at $260 million in 1976. Impact aid.—In 1976, legislation will be proposed to initiate new funding policies for this program which provides payments to school districts where enrollments are affected by Federal activities. This legislative proposal will provide funding to districts for those children whose parents live and work on Federal property ("a" category) and those children whose parents either live or work on Federal property ("b" category). The proposed legislation will make payments as follows: 100% of entitlement for u a" category children who comprise 25% or more of total children in average daily attendance; 90% of entitlement for "a" category children who comprise less than 25% of total children in average daily attendance; 68% of entitlement for " b " categor}^ children, less the amounts such agencies would receive for "b" category children who reside outside of the State in which their school district is located. Payments will be made on the rates specified above, less 5%^ of each agency's total operating expenditures for the preceding year. Outlays for this legislative proposal in 1976 will be $158 million. Library resources.—In 1976 legislation will be proposed to initiate a program to support the integration of library and information services and the demonstration of new methods for delivery of library services. This initiative will stress greater efficiency and cost-effectiveness in the provision of services and the focusing of these services on high priority target populations such as the disadvantaged. Outlays for this legislative proposal will be $11 million in 1976. Education and work.—The isolation of education from the world of work will be addressed by the Fund for the Improvement of Postsecondary Education, the Office of Education and the National Institute of Education. SPECIAL ANALYSES 143 These agencies will develop and demonstrate methods of providing information to educators and young people on the world of work and work experience, increasing the understanding of problems that education can help to resolve, and improving the transition from education to work. National Institute of Education.—The Institute (NIE) will continue to develop and coordinate research strategies in education, and serve as a focal point for educational research and experimentation. This research will include learning for the disadvantaged, career education, educational technology, basic skills and school finance and productivity. Research results will be disseminated to local educational authorities so that they can determine what will work best in their individual schools. In 1976, NIE outlays for educational research and development will be $84 million. OTHER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS Health manpower.—A program of national health service scholarships has been initiated, under which health professions and nursing students can receive full scholarship assistance in return for equal periods of public service, after their training is completed. (See Special Analysis K for further details on Federal health programs.) GI bill.—The GI bill amendments, signed into law December 1974, provide increased benefits to an expanded set of recipients. The legislation was designed to provide more funds for trainees to partially meet rising costs of education. Emergency school aid.—This program, enacted in 1972, will provide aid to elementary and secondary schools and their faculties engaged in the process of desegregation. In 1975 and 1976, the Administration is proposing to provide funding for this program in a fully discretionary way to those areas of greatest need. NATIONAL EDUCATION GOALS National education purposes are estimated to account for $8.6 billion of educational expenditures in 1976. Of this total, over $4.4 billion, or 51%, will be spent at the elementary and secondary education levels. Higher education will benefit from $3.4 billion or an additional 40%. The remainder is directed toward adult and continuing education, public libraries, research, and some cultural activities. Most Federal expenditures for education at the elementary and secondary school levels are provided through the activities of the Education Division. In 1976, Office of Education programs account for $3.4 billion or 77% of the total level of $4.4 billion. 144 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 1-3. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR NATIONAL EDUCATION GOALS BY LEVELS Level and program Outlay* (million*) 1974 Elementary and secondary: Educationally deprived children (ESEA) Supplementary services, State plans (ESEA) Other ESEA Federally affected areas Emergency school aid Educational development Library resources Education for the handicapped Occupational and vocational education National Institute of Education Office of Child Development Student grants (OASDI) Bureau of Indian Affairs Other 1975 1976 1,460 165 42 559 203 184 84 123 334 45 409 244 149 96 1,599 170 120 631 205 117 93 125 373 33 436 274 183 132 1, 755 123 315 371 121 32 72 138 388 33 465 309 173 117 4,097 4,491 4,412 49 261 294 281 26 45 66 111 140 84 618 36 23 202 451 462 370 255 7 95 58 137 159 94 695 38 32 222 502 521 437 313 4 104 62 156 156 87 785 46 32 193 2,236 3,075 3,398 96 44 75 86 17 99 48 84 102 22 102 37 95 121 25 Subtotal, adult and continuing education 318 355 380 Other: Office of Education salaries and expenses Student loan insurance fund National Institute of Education Smithsonian Institution Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities Other 77 39 44 36 22 14 98 112 81 43 44 27 25 52 105 88 46 56 32 26 27 330 384 380 6,981 8,305 8,570 Subtotal, elementary and secondary Higher education: Basic opportunity grants Work-study and supplementary grants Guaranteed student loans Direct student loans College teacher fellowships Student loan insurance fund Construction loans and grants Disadvantaged students and developing institutions Occupational and vocational education Special institutions Student grants (OASDI)__ National Science Foundation Bureau of Indian Affairs Other Subtotal, higher education Adult and continuing education: Occupational and adult education (OE) Public libraries (OE)__-___ Social Security Administration Library of Congress Other Subtotal, other Total SPECIAL ANALYSES 145 Under programs in other offices, an estimated $1.1 billion will be spent in 1976 for elementary and secondary education. Office of Child Development activities account for $465 million, mostly in the Head Start program. Under the social security system (OASDI), children between the ages of 18 and 22 who are still in school will continue to receive benefits if they are students. These funds are a legal entitlement of the recipient student and wall be paid direct^ to the student upon his request. In 1976 an estimated $309 million of social security payments will be made to high school students. The Federal Government additionally aids or directly provides education for certain groups such as Indians, Cuban refugees, and residents of Pacific territories. The National Science Foundation and the National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities also have selected activities at the elementary and secondary school levels. An estimated $3.4 billion will be spent in 1976 for higher education, an increase of 78% over the 1974 level. Expenditure for higher education will be 40% of total expenditures for education goals. The Office of Education will provide $2.3 billion out of the $3.4 billion total. Student support accounts for the majority of the funds for educational purposes at this level. In 1972, the year in which Congress enacted higher education amendments, $933 million for Office of Education student support programs (wTork-study and supplementary grants, guaranteed student loans and direct student loans) constituted 43% of the total. In 1976, under Administration proposals, Office of Education student aid expenditures will reach $1,984 million, more than double the level 4 years before. Social security benefits to students at institutions of higher education will provide an additional $785 million of student support in 1976, an increase of $90 million over 1975 levels and $167 million over 1974 levels. The focus of aid in higher education will continue to shift from institutional support to direct student support with the full funding of the basic opportunity grants. Outlays in 1976 for adult and continuing education and other educational activities will be $380 million. Various Federal activities such as the Library of Congress and the Smithsonian Institution are included in this category. The total outlays in 1976 for these activities will increase by $25 million over 1975. EDUCATION SUPPORT FOR OTHER PURPOSES Almost half of the expenditures for education are in programs directed to multiple purposes. The largest single program in this category is veterans readjustment benefits (the GI bill). Veterans readjustment is a means of redressing postservice job and educational inequities. Expenditures reflect estimated utilization of program benefits by entitled veterans. These outlays are estimated to peak in 1975 at $4.0 billion. This represents an increase of $715 million over 1974 levels, a portion of which can be accounted for by recently enacted increases in GI bill benefits. In 1976, the continuing reduction in Armed Forces separations and proposed legislation which would allow a veteran 8 rather than 10 years to use these benefits lead to a decreasing workload, and therefore a reduced estimate of expenditures. School lunch, school breakfast, school milk, and other programs benefiting school children nutritionally accounted for $1.5 billion in 146 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 1975. The Administration proposes to substitute comprehensive bloc grants for existing child feeding programs in order to rationalize the administratively complex programs under the child nutrition and school lunch acts. Outlays in 1976 will be $1.6 billion. The GI bill and child nutrition programs will constitute an estimated 54% of outlays for noneducational purposes in 1976. Of the remaining programs, $655 billion or 9% will be accounted for by manpower training for specialized purposes. The largest single purpose for training is defense. The Department of Defense trains personnel already in service, as well as future service personnel through the Reserve Officers Training Corps and in the service academies. Outlays for inservice training are estimated to reach $491 million in 1976, an increase of 3 % over estimated 1975 levels. Table 1-4. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR OTHER BASIC PURPOSES BY LEVEL Outlays (millions) Level and program 1974 dual Elementary and secondary: Child nutrition Public service jobs Community planning and development Veterans Administration Other Subtotal, elementary and secondary Higher education: Veterans readjustment Military service academies Reserve Officers Training Corps Other DOD Health Resources Administration Health manpower (NIH) --.— " . Alcohol, Drug Abuse and Mental Health Administration Other 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1,267 129 74 67 178 1,617 208 44 86 204 1,463 176 36 80 231 1,715 2,159 1,986 2,309 220 157 96 546 2,703 240 165 96 613 2,539 262 171 96 519 144 164 14] 83 200 103 253 75 228 Subtotal, higher education 3,755 4,337 4,031 Adult and continuing education: Agriculture extension service Veterans readjustment Other 193 538 36 214 588 32 220 472 28 767 834 720 446 20 479 22 491 11 466 501 513 3! 72 32 97 39 103 103 129 142 Subtotal, adult and continuing education Training of Federal military employees: Defense Coast Guard Subtotal, training of Federal military employees. Other: Department of State Other Subtotal, other Total _ 6,806 7,960 7,392 SPECIAL ANALYSES 147 An additional $162 million in 1976 will be provided for training of specialized personnel in State, local, and private sector activities which are not military or health related. These include training for merchant marine, for law enforcement officers, for persons in various scientific fields, and for social workers. SALARY SUPPLEMENTS Salary supplements in the form of allowances or direct provision of education for Federal employees or for their dependents will reach an estimated $281 million dollars in 1976. These supplements consist almost entirely of Defense Department expenditures for overseas dependents education and for off-duty education of military personnel. The two programs will account for $276 million of outlays in 1976, an increase of $32 million over their 1975 levels. Table 1-5. FEDERAL EDUCATION OUTLAYS FOR SALARY SUPPLEMENTS Level and program Outlays (millions) 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 238 249 281 Elementary and secondary Higher education Adult education Other 212 1 21 4 202 1 43 3 226 Defense: Overseas dependents education. Off-duty military personnel Other 212 21 5 202 43 4 226 50 5 Total, salary supplements.. T 50 4 EDUCATIONAL PERSONNEL TRAINING AND RESEARCH Educational personnel training and research is funded under many programs already identified as directed to education goals. They account for a small part of total education expenditures by the Federal Government. Outlays for this purpose, in programs directed toward educational goals, are estimated to reach $641 million in 1976, or 4% of all education-related expenditures. Educational personnel training is a declining component of this total, estimated at $187 million in 1976, compared to $227 million for 1975. Outlays for educational research are estimated to rise, and will constitute an increasing portion of total educational expenditures. These outlays will reach an estimated $454 million in 1976, an increase of 14% over their 1975 level. 148 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 1-6. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR PERSONNEL TRAINING AND RESEARCH IN EDUCATION Program Education personnel training: Educational development Occupational, adult and vocational Emergency school assistance Education for the handicapped College teacher fellowships (OE) Office of Child Development National Science Foundation Other Subtotal, education personnel training Educational research: Educational development Elementary and Secondary Education Act Education for the handicapped Occupational, vocational and adult education National Institute of Education National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities. National Science Foundation Other Outlays (millions) 1974 1975 1976 actual estimate estimate 115 14 16 32 26 22 13 7 80 32 14 39 8 22 17 15 28 52 12 33 4 20 14 24 245 227 187 123 22 35 50 97 20 31 21 68 83 31 48 82 34 37 43 11 98 32 102 84 36 41 50 Subtotal, educational research 399 426 454 Total 644 653 641 The Office of Education funds most of the educational training and the National Institute of Education funds a significant part of educational research through a wide range of programs. The Office of Education will provide 70% of the money for personnel training in 1976; the National Institute of Education will provide 20% of the funds for research in 1976. EDUCATIONAL LEVEL OF SUPPORT Approximately half of Federal funds for education are directed to elementary and secondary education. Of this total 67% are provided through programs directly focusing on educational goals. Some 42% of funds go to higher education, but of these, 46% are in programs whose primary goal is education. SPECIAL ANALYSES 149 Table 1-7. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR EDUCATION BY PURPOSE AND LEVEL Outlays (millions) 1974 actual Elementary and secondary: Education Other basic purposes Salary supplements Total, elementary and secondary Higher education: Education Other basic purposes Salary supplements Total, higher education Adult and continuing education: Education Other basic purposes Salary supplements Total, adult and continuing education Other: Education Other basic purposes Salary supplements Total, other Total, outlays for education 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 4,097 1, 715 212 4,491 4,412 2,159 1,986 202 226 6,024 6.852 6.624 2,236 3,755 1 3.075 4.337 1 3,398 4.031 1 5,992 7,413 7.430 318 767 21 355 834 43 380 720 50 1,106 1,232 1.150 330 569 4 903 14,025 384 630 3 380 655 4 1,017 1,039 16,514 16,243 Most of the support to elementary and secondary education reaches the educational process through grants to States and to local educational agencies. Table 1-8. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION BY SUBLEVEL AND TYPE OF SUPPORT Sublevel and type of support Outlays (millions) 1974 actual Total, elementary and secondary 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 6,024 6,852 6,624 Early childhood Elementary and secondary Supporting services 653 5,009 362 698 5,861 293 676 5,739 209 Current operations Facilities and equipment Student support Education personnel training Educational research 5.081 144 348 197 254 5.794 184 400 210 264 5.539 153 435 199 298 150 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 The outlays in support of higher education are generally not channeled through a State or local government. Instead, grants or loans are made to the educational institution or go to the student who then chooses which institution to attend. Federal support to higher education continues in transition from an emphasis on institutional support to one of direct student assistance. In 1976, an estimated $5,783 million or 78% of total outlays for higher education will be direct grants or subsidies on loans to students. Another $1,520 million are estimated to go to institutions for currrent operations or facilities and equipment. In comparison, in 1974, $4,391 million or 73% of the total provided grants or subsidized loans to students. The Federal Government also aids education through four tax expenditures whose benefits are predominantly at the higher education level. The exclusion from taxable income of veterans readjustment benefits (the GI bill) is estimated to reduce Federal revenues by $0.2 billion in 1976, and to make these benefits correspondingly more valuable to their recipients. The similar exclusion for other scholarships and fellowships results in a revenue loss of $0.2 billion in 1976. Parents may claim a personal exemption for full-time students over 18, even if the students have a substantial income of their own. This tax expenditure of $0.7 billion in 1976 aids families with older children in school. Finally, the deductibilit}^ of contributions to educational institutions is estimated to reduce Federal receipts by $0.6 billion in 1976. This provision allows individuals and businesses to make a dollar's contribution to education at a net cost to themselves of considerably less than $1. Table 1-9. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION BY TYPE OF INSTITUTION AND TYPE OF SUPPORT Outlays (millions) 1974 actual Total, higher education 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5,992 7,413 7,430 2-year institutions Other undergraduate Graduate and professional 1,572 3,166 1,254 2,033 3,961 1,419 1,999 4,112 1,319 Current operations Facilities and equipment Student support Education personnel training Educational research 1,083 432 4,391 45 41 1,181 472 5,661 44 55 1,081 440 5,782 63 64 There is a shift in the level of educational institutions benefiting from Federal education expenditures. Outlays for 2- and 4-year institutions will increase $1.4 billion from 1974 to 1976 almost entirely accounting for the increase in Federal outlays for higher education over the 2-year interval. More than half of higher education funds, $4.1 billion, are estimated to go to 4-year undergraduate institutions in 1976. Of the remainder, $2.0 billion will go to 2-year institutions and $1.3 billion to graduate and professional schools. SPECIAL ANALYSES 151 STUDENT SUPPORT About $5.8 billion of student support will be available in 1976, 86% of which will be undergraduate student assistance. The GI bill will provide 44% of student assistance. The Office of Education will spend another 33% or an estimated $1.9 billion to support various grant, loan and work-study programs. The Office of Education estimates that almost 4 million student grants and loans will be made in 1976 under its programs. Students receiving aid under more than one program account for at least onethird of this total. The number of students aided is estimated to increase about 21% from 1975 to 1976 after allowances for program overlap are taken into account. Table 1-10. STUDENT SUPPORT BY AGENCY: FEDERAL OUTLAYS AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS Outlays (millions) Agency 1974 actual Undergraduate: Health, Education, and WelfareOffice of Education Social Security Administration. Health agencies and other Veterans Administration Defense Justice Other Subtotal, undergraduate Graduate: Health, Education, and Welfare: National Institutes of Health _ _ Office of Education Other ... Veterans Administration National Science Foundation Defense Other Subtotal, graduate 1 Total 1 1975 estimate Student (thousands) 1976 estimate 853 618 47 1,991 95 31 33 1,551 695 45 2,332 121 34 43 1,779 785 28 2,191 123 22 42 3,668 4,821 4,970 89 90 113 317 16 83 15 102 110 149 370 11 82 16 91 126 150 348 13 71 13 723 840 812 4,391 5,661 5,782 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 2,523 430 59 1,211 72 87 24 3,169 446 43 1,272 81 88 23 3,825 461 35 1,132 80 51 23 13 293 74 193 2 4 8 12 292 61 202 2 4 7 12 327 59 180 2 3 5 Student totals not shown because some students receive awards under more than one program. OUTLAYS BY EDUCATIONAL SUBLEVEL In order to provide data in a form comparable with earlier education special analyses the following tables are provided which display program and agency outlays by education sublevels in 1974, 1975, and 1976. 152 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 111. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION BY AGENCY Outlays (millions) Sublevel, agency and program 1974 actual Early childhood: Food and nutrition service Elementary and secondary Child development Appalachian regional development Other Subtotal, early childhood Elementary and secondary: Food and Nutrition Service Defense Office of Education: Educationally deprived children Other ESEA Federally affected areas Emergency school aid Education for the handicapped Occupational and vocational education Student grants (OASDI) Bureau of Indian Affairs Public service jobs Community Planning and Development Veterans readjustment Other Subtotal, elementary and secondary Supporting services: Office of Education: Educational development Education for the handicapped National Institute of Education Department of Defense National Science Foundation Other Subtotal supporting services Total _ 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 25 150 409 24 45 33 163 436 25 41 5 139 465 22 45 653 698 676 1,242 205 1,584 196 1,458 215 1,460 56 559 203 43 334 244 142 129 63 67 262 1,599 124 631 205 40 373 274 174 208 38 86 329 1,755 289 371 121 56 387 309 164 176 31 80 327 5,009 5.861 5.739 184 60 45 43 26 4 362 117 66 33 41 29 7 293 32 62 33 47 24 11 209 6,024 6,852 6,624 SPECIAL ANALYSES 153 Table 1-12. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION BY AGENCY Outlays (millions) Sublevcl, agency and program 1974 actual 2-year institutions: Office of Education: Basic opportunity grants Other higher education Occupational and vocational education Student grants (OASDI) Health Resources Administration Veterans readjustment Other Subtotal, 2-year institutions Other undergraduate: Military service academies Reserve Officers Training Corps Health manpower (NIH) Office of Education: Basic opportunity grants Work-study and supplementary grants Guaranteed student loans Construction loans and grants Disadvantaged students and developing institutions Direct student loans Other Student grants (OASDI) Special institutions Office of the Secretary Bureau of Indian Affairs International Development Assistance Veterans readjustment National Science Foundation Other Subtotal, other undergraduate Graduate and professional: Health Services Administration Health manpower (NIH) _ 1975 estimate 24 172 140 67 66 1, 000 103 225 231 156 75 70 1,171 1976 estimate 251 270 151 85 47 1,099 105 96 1,572 2,033 1,999 220 240 165 98 262 157 87 25 204 177 52 91 239 51 552 53 66 16 29 992 19 136 226 361 222 44 118 216 99 620 56 61 25 53 1,162 23 172 251 407 262 47 125 266 110 700 48 60 26 95 1,092 26 98 3,166 3,961 4,112 171 66 31 317 89 17 31 M 24 164 95 445 121 18 38 370 89 14 41 26 141 71 405 134 12 39 348 89 19 35 Subtotal, graduate and professional 1,254 1,419 1,319 Total 5,992 7,413 7,430 ADAMHA .--.- — .- Health Resources Administration Higher education Social and Rehabilitation Service Special institutions Veterans readjustment Department of Defense National Science Foundation Other 21 144 75 392 120 154 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 1-13. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ADULT EDUCATION AND OTHER ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY Outlays (millions) Sublevcl, agency and program 1974 actual Adult basic and extension: Agriculture extension service Office of Education Social Security Administration Veterans readjustment Other Subtotal, adult basic and extension Public and national library services: Library of Congress Library resources (OE) Other Subtotal, public and national library services Training of Federal, State, and local civilian employees: Justice Federal Aviation Administration Other Subtotal, training of public civilian employees Training of Federal military employees: Defense Coast Guard Subtotal, training of Federal military employees-_ Foreign educational activities: State Subtotal, foreign educational activities Other: Office of Education, salaries and expenses Other Office of Education National Institute of Education Smithsonian Institution Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities Other Subtotal, other Total _ 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 193 96 75 538 57 214 103 84 588 75 220 107 95 472 79 959 1,064 973 86 44 17 102 48 18 121 37 20 147 168 m 9 6 23 10 13 32 10 38 55 72 446 20 479 22 491 22 466 501 513 29 31 37 29 31 37 ]7 45 77 136 44 36 22 14 41 112 136 43 44 27 25 43 105 113 46 56 32 26 38 370 430 416 2,249 2,189 2,009 ^ SPECIAL 155 ANALYSES Table 1-14. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR EDUCATION BY AGENCY Agency Legislative branch: Library of Congress . Funds appropriated to the President: International Development Assistance Appalachian Regional Commission Agriculture Commerce Defense—Military Defense—Civil Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education Other HEW Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Atomic Energy Commission Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other independent agencies: ACTION Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and Humanities National Science Foundation Smithsonian Institution United States Information Agency Total Outlays (millions) 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate Budget authority (millions) 1976 86 102 121 124 49 63 1,521 13 1,200 1 91 73 1,895 14 1,274 1 157 71 1,748 16 1,348 107 45 1,720 17 1,533 21 4,885 2,508 91 200 54 129 36 29 50 5 6 11 5 2,914 5,965 2,781 36 242 62 208 38 38 88 6 4 12 4 3,377 6,043 2,779 13 232 48 176 46 42 52 9 3 14 4 3,091 5,963 2,461 34 234 43 176 46 42 30 9 3 14 4 3,105 15 22 28 65 36 3 15 27 45 69 44 3 17 32 51 71 56 3 19 70 100 69 56 3 16,243 16,048 14,025 16,514 SPECIAL ANALYSIS J FEDERAL MANPOWER PROGRAMS SCOPE OF THIS ANALYSIS Federal manpower programs aim to increase the skills and employment opportunities of individuals already in the work force and of persons who desire to join the work force but lack vocational preparation or face other employment barriers. Manpower programs provide skill training, rehabilitation, transitional employment experience, job placement assistance, and related child care and social and health services. Manpower programs are distinguished from educational programs by their operating characteristics. Generally, they: (1) Operate outside the normal educational process, (2) provide skill training for non-professional jobs, (3) provide services for less than 1 year, and (4) target on the disadvantaged or unemployed sector of the population. This analysis covers all programs classified as manpower training in the functional classification of the budget. It also includes some programs directed toward similar objectives from other functional classifications such as income security, and veterans benefits and services. Not included in this analysis are programs of vocational and technical education and paraprofessional training, such as are authorized by the Vocational Education Act, Adult Education Act, and Elementary and Secondary Education Act. As a practical matter at the local operational level, these programs may be considered in the same context. However, since they operate within the normal educational process they are covered in Special Analysis I, Federal Education Programs. The 1976 budget provides $6.3 billion for manpower programs to serve an anticipated 2.9 million new enrollees. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS COMPREHENSIVE MANPOWER ASSISTANCE (CMA) The delivery system for the largest single appropriation for manpower services is changing radically as a result of the move to special revenue sharing through decentralized and decategorized programing. Entering its second full-year of operation in 1976, the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) has substituted broad-based formula grants to State and local governments for narrow categorical programs. CETA provides local discretion within broad Federal priorities for local officials to plan and operate training and employment programs that best fit the needs of the local labor market situation. 156 SPECIAL ANALYSES 157 Basic program appropriations for this legislation (titles I through V) are reflected in the budget under Department of Labor, Comprehensive Manpower Assistance. In 1975 States and localities are spending about $2.2 billion under CMA to finance locally conceived manpower plans. Other CMA activity includes national training programs for migrant workers, Indians, and the Job Corps, as well as research and evaluation projects. MODEL CITIES Manpower activity formerly carried out through the model cities program under the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) will be affected by title I of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1974. This title establishes a new community development block grant program to succeed seven terminated categorical programs, including model cities. Information is not currently available on the degree to which localities will use grant funds for manpower activity. H U D financed manpower activity will be reflected in future Special Analyses if data become available. ACTION-FOSTER GRANDPARENTS Prior Special Analyses included funds for this program. The Domestic Volunteer Service Act of 1973 mandates that participants be out of the labor force. This program is therefore not appropriate for inclusion. TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT ASSISTANCE (TEA) In response to economic conditions, the Administration requested legislation to expand unemployment compensation and to increase public job opportunities in October, 1974. Legislation was enacted December, 1974. Unemployment compensation is discussed in Special Analysis L, Income Security. Temporary public jobs were authorized by the Emergency Jobs and Unemployment Assistance Act. Funds were appropriated under the temporary employment assistance account. Approximately 110,000 temporary jobs will be financed in calendar 1975. The program is administered by the Department of Labor through grants to States, localities, and Indian tribes. W O R K INCENTIVE PROGRAM (WIN) Employable recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) are required to register for the W I N program which provides job placement, counseling, and training. Child care and related supportive services are available depending on client needs. Increasing emphasis is being placed on referring W I N registrants to available jobs. Some are offered placement in subsidized jobs, training, and basic education. VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION (VR) The H E W VR program began to provide rehabilitation services to the aged, blind, and disabled under the new supplemental security 158 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 income program which became operational January 1, 1974. VR programs are also operated by the Veterans Administration (VA). PROJECT TRANSITION In the Department of Defense, Project Transition provided assistance to servicemen prior to discharge. At congressional direction, Transition in 1975 became a part of the regular Defense activity, rather than a special separately funded program. No applicable data is therefore available after 1974. COMMUNITY SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (CSA) The Community Services Act of 1974 has replaced the Office of Economic Opportunity with a new Community Services Administration. CSA activity reported in this analysis reflects an estimate of manpower activity undertaken by community action agencies. PROGRAM APPROACHES Manpower programs are classified into seven major approaches to summarize the delivery of services. Those approaches and the activities included in each are as follows: —On-the-job training—provides training for regular job vacancies generally by reimbursing employers for the added costs of hiring and training disadvantaged individuals. Employers are generally expected to retain the individual once reimbursement ends. —Institutional training—provides instruction in vocational skills and remedial education in a classroom setting. —Vocational rehabilitation—helps individuals overcome physical and mental handicaps to employment, through skill training, counseling, allowances and supportive services. —Work experience—provides temporary employment experience, generally part time, primarily for youth and older workers. —Public service employment—provides employment, generally intended to be transitional, in public sector jobs for individuals who (1) need to acquire work discipline and skills to compete for nonsubsidized jobs, or (2) who are temporarily unable to find regular employment. —Labor market services—encompasses services to assist individuals in obtaining employment, including (a) job placement assistance, (b) collection and analysis of labor market information, (c) equal employment opportunity activities (excluding individual agency civil rights activities other than contract compliance—see Special Analysis M), (d) supportive services such as child care, health care, transportation, legal aid, and counseling which enable individuals to participate in training and to take and hold jobs, and (e) other miscellaneous activities. —Federal program support—includes research, development and evaluation activities as well as planning, technical assistance and program direction. Some activities can be classified entirely under one approach. Others, such as WIN and CMA, offer a range of work, training and supportive services, and thus are divided among several approaches. 159 SPECIAL ANAI/ Estimates by approach for State and local programs under CMA, in 1975 and 1976 are based on program operating plans submitted by prime sponsors for 1975. Data attributed to CMA in 1973 and 1974 were derived from amount < for the comparable portions of the categorical program authoritie which CETA has replaced. For purposes of indepth program analysis and evaluation, detailed data on program participants is available at the local level and through surveys. PROGRAM MEASURES The three principal measures used to summarize the level of program services are: —Man-years of service, which measures the average year-round enrollment; —New enrollees, which counts the number of individuals entering the activity during the year; and —Outlays, which measures the level of expenditures during a fiscal year. Man-Years of Service in Manpower Activities Millie Millie -3.0 1968 1969 Fiscal Years 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Estimate 1976 160 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 New Enrollees in Manpower Activities Millions Millions 3.0 — 2.0- 1.0 1.0 — 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Fiscal Yean 1976 Estimate Outlays for Federal Manpower Activities $ Billions $ Billions — 6.0 6.0Public Service Employment 4.0 — — 4.0 2.0 — — 2.0 1964 J965 1966 Fiscal Y*ars 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 197? 1973 1974 1975 1976 Estimate SPECIAL ANALYSES 161 Table J-l. DISTRIBUTION OF APPROACH CATEGORIES (in percent) Outlays 1974 actual Public service employment. __ Work experience On-the-job training Institutional training Rehabilitation Labor market services 1975 12 17 17 10 14 18 29 22 12 10 15 15 26 Man-years 1976 21 13 10 16 15 25 New enrollees 1974 actual 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 4 23 11 17 45 9 20 11 19 41 2 20 10 19 42 3 44 8 27 18 8 34 8 32 18 5 38 8 31 18 PROGRAMS BY APPROACH The following tables show activity of major programs by approach. Narratives with each table reference only significant changes reflected on the tables, and include program descriptions if necessary. On-the-job training (OJT).—Outlays for veterans OJT in 1975 and 1976 reflect the provisions of Public Laws 93-508 and 93-602, which increased the monthly allowances for OJT by 22.7%. Differences in the relationships among programs between man-years and new enrollees are due to variances in duration of enrollment. Table J-2. O N - T H E - J O B TRAINING (outlays in millions, individuals in thousands) Individuals served Program Outlays 1974 actual Comprehensive manpower assistance..... Work incentive program On-the-job training for veterans. _ Other Total.... Man-years 1975 1976 1974 est. est. actual 1975 est. New enrollees 1976 1974 est. actual 1975 1976 est. est. 153 58 262 10 276 306 53 46 319 301 7 6 42 11 123 2 60 10 132 2 66 9 124 1 116 33 95 8 138 13 101 4 139 13 74 2 483 655 178 204 200 252 256 228 659 Institutional training.—Included in this approach under CMA is the Job Corps, a specialized program conducted in a residential setting for youth aged 14 through 21 for which an outlay of $171 million is expected in 1976. The primary component of Job Corps is institutional training but with emphasis on the provision of supportive services to prepare disadvantaged youth for entry into the labor market. The entry for social services on this table and hereafter is for programs operated by State agencies for public assistance recipients, but is exclusive of service to WIN participants. Other institutional training includes programs for Indians, offenders, and others. 530-700 O - 75 - 11 162 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table J - 3 . INSTITUTIONAL TRAINING (outlays in millions, individuals in thousands) Individuals served Program 0 utlays 1974 Comprehensive manpower assistance _. Work incentive program Social services training Other Total Ma n-years 1975 1976 1974 1975 New enrollees 1976 1974 1975 1976 535 47 30 44 801 18 62 43 870 18 50 52 85 20 170 12 142 8 200 11 155 8 188 11 208 58 523 349 5 650 41 350 10 575 22 656 924 990 287 361 362 833 1,045 957 44 Vocational rehabilitation.—Outlays for veterans in VA rehabilitation programs reflect the 22.7% increase in allowances effective September 1, 1974. Table J-4. VOCATIONAL REHABILITATION (outlays in millions, individuals in thousands) Individuals served Program Outlays 1974 actual HEW vocational rehabilitation.-. Veterans vocational rehabilitation. Total 1975 est. Man-years 1976 est. New enrollees 1974 actual 1975 est. 1976 est. 1974 1975 actual est. 1976 est. 755 85 819 131 830 133 736 15 779 21 799 20 540 U 560 27 516 21 840 950 963 751 800 819 557 587 537 Work experience.—Includes summer youth program under CMA. In light of Lhe magnitude of resources available in basic grants, it is expected that prime sponsors will operate programs in calendar years 1975 and 1976 at approximately the same levels as calendar year 1974. The 1974 entry for other youth programs reflects the use by States and localities of funds available under emergency employment assistance for the calendar year 1973 summer youth program. Table J - 5 . W O R K E X P E R I E N C E (outlays in millions, individuals in thousands) Individ uals served Program 1974 Comprehensive manpower assistance _ _ _____ Other youth programs Work incentive program Other Total Man-years Outlays 1974 ac 1975 1976 1975 613 674 717 275 162 5 12 82 4 17 81 4 6 93 3 2 59 3 4 792 777 808 373 393 New enrollees 1976 1974 1 975 est. V,7 354 1,076 1 ,038 1976 est. 63 12 7 1,089 53 9 2 404 1,367 1, 120 1,153 47 2 1 265 17 9 SPECIAL ANALYSES 163 Public service employment.—Outlays for Emergency employment assistance reflect spending out of appropriations for which authority was available only in 1972 and 1973. CMA includes authority under regular prime sponsor grants (title I), special grants in areas with an unemployment rate of 6.5% or more for 3 consecutive months (title II) and national programs (title III). Shown separately on the line "CMA/EEA" is the effect of a one-time appropriation enacted at the end of 1974 under CETA transitional authority to extend financing of projects originally funded by the expired Emergency Employment Act. Additional jobs were made available under temporary employment assistance, authority for which expires in 1975. Table J-6. PUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT (outlays in millions, individuals in thousands) Individulals served Program Outlays 1974 Comprehensive manpower assistance CMA/EEA Emergency employment assistance Temporary employment assistance Work incentive program Total 1975 1976 1974 666 625 250 . . . . 516 58 59 350 650 31 29 5 34 New enrollees Man-years 550 1,355 1,304 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 73 69 28 . . . . 21 66 127 117 30 11 39 5 11 113 3 72 4 64 166 145 42 4 77 284 163 Labor market services.—Job placement assistance.—The State Employment Service (ES), is the major federally financed deliverer of job placement assistance for the general labor force, as well as the disadvantaged. In cooperation with welfare agencies, ES also provides placement services to WIN and food stamp recipients. Specialized placement assistance is provided by the Veterans Administration and the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Labor market information.—Activities are those of the Department of Labor. Equal employment opportunity.—Includes the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the Employment Standards Administration of the Department of Labor (including the Office of Federal Contract Compliance—OFCC, the equal pay, and age discrimination programs), and contract compliance activities within other agencies conducted under OFCC aegis. 164 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table J-7. JOB PLACEMENT ASSISTANCE, LABOR MARKET INFORMATION AND EQUAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY (in millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 actual Employment service Work Incentive program Food stamp recipient services. _ Other placement assistance Labor market information Equal employment opportunity Total ._. 1975 1976 414 74 16 53 38 75 492 97 24 39 48 95 481 100 28 38 56 104 670 795 807 Supportive services.—The social services program funds child care services directly through State social service agencies and also supports child care through an income disregard to the AFDC payment. Data for services other than child care are based on total costs, including when applicable, the local matching portion. Table J - 8 . CHILD CARE (outlays in millions of dollars) Program Child care: Work incentive program Social services program Model Cities Subtotal Outlays 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 44 343 11 42 555 6 47 446 5 398 604 498 Table J-9. APPLICABLE COSTS FOR SUPPORTIVE SERVICES FOR SELECTED PROGRAMS (in percent) 1974 actual CMA (State and local) Work incentive program HEW vocational rehabilitation Veterans programs Indian programs (Interior) 1 0) 55 79 6 21 1975 estimate 12 62 79 6 21 1976 estimate 12 63 79 6 15 Comparable data not available. Federal program support.—Activities shown are funded primarily by the Department of Labor. Program direction includes costs for national program planning and administration. SPECIAL ANALYSES 165 Table J-10. FEDERAL PROGRAM SUPPORT (in millions of dollars) Outlays Program 1974 Research and development Evaluation Planning and technical assistance Program direction Total 1976 1975 20 3 11 90 14 4 11 103 18 7 9 104 124 132 138 Costs by approach.—Costs include the various labor market and supportive services usually provided to supplement the indicated training or work program, as well as administrative and training costs. Cost changes reflect minimum wage increases and inflation effect. Table J-11. COSTS BY APPROACH, 1973 AND 1975 Average man-years per participant (years) On-the-job training Institutional training Vocational rehabilitation In-school work experience Postschool work experience Public service employment Average cost per man-year (dollars) 1973 1975 1973 0.72 .28 1.25 .64 .28 .92 0.81 .30 1.26 .68 .26 .71 2,625 2,669 1,091 1,275 2,290 7,963 1975 Average cost per participant (dollars) 1973 1975 3,241 1,885 2,638 2,622 742 793 1,310 1,364 1.649 1,422 815 966 2,082 645 542 8,840 7,332 6,315 IMPACT OF MANPOWER PROGRAMS There are significant limitations to the ability to discern the impact that manpower programs exert on national economic conditions, especially since impact on total employment conditions cannot yet be adequately measured or controlled. This constrains assumptions of the value of program change as a means of altering basic economic conditions. For example, the potential impact of one of the largest approaches, public service employment, is diluted by substitution effects. Under the Emergency Employment Act (FY 1972-74) only about 40% to 50% of funds for programs financing transitional public service employment appear to have created new jobs. The balance appears to have resulted in substituting Federal funding for jobs that would otherwise have been funded by States and localities. The degree of substitution tends to increase substantially the longer a public jobs program is in place. In other programs, services are oriented first toward overcoming individual barriers to employment, not to affecting overall labor market conditions. 166 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 In addition, experience has shown that it is extremely difficult from the national level to precisely design programs that can target effects properly on the particular nature of problems for local workers affected by discrete economic factors. Limitations that operate at the national level are not necessarily a factor restricting manpower programs planned and operated in specific local areas. The goal of Comprehensive Manpower Assistance is to enable more direct response to local needs in accord with the broad direction indicated by national trends. People served.—Most Federal manpower programs focus on low-income individuals and others with severe barriers to employment as they are least likely to be able to improve their employment opportunities without assistance. Changes over time in characteristics of participants frequently result from programmatic or statutory changes rather than shifts within the general population served. For example, decreases in the proportion of those with less than a high school education is largely reflective of increases in the proportion hired for jobs with relatively high entry standards under public jobs programs. Manpower programs generally target by statute on the poor, the unemployed, the less educated, minorities, youth, and welfare recipients. TableJ-12. CHARACTERISTICS OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS, ADULT POVERTY POPULATION AND MANPOWER PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS Unemployed workers (age 16 and above) civilian noninstitutional l Average number (millions) Percent: Age 21 or less Male Less than high school education __ Poor Welfare recipients Minority 1 2 Poverty population (age 14—64) civilian noninstitutional 2 1970 1972 1974 Manpower program participants (age 14 and above) 3 1970 1972 1974 1970 4.1 4.8 5.1 11.1 12.7 12.1 1.3 2.3 37 38 39 55 54 53 46 48 47 17 21 20 NA NA NA 18 20 20 23 31 32 39 39 39 68 66 NA 100 100 100 35 NA NA 30 33 31 36 58 56 73 23 40 31 48 47 75 43 40 Poor represent family heads; less than high school educated based on March CPS. Does not include Spanish-speaking. * Excludes in-school programs. NA—Not available. 1972 1974 2.1 31 44 43 67 42 35 SPECIAL ANALYSES 167 Table J-13. CHARACTERISTICS OF ENROLLEES BY APPROACH, 1970, 1972, 1974 (in percent) Poor 1970 On-the-job training Institutional training Vocational rehabilitation Work experience Public service employment 61 89 67 99 21 or younger 1972 1974 72 94 67 100 53 92 63 100 Male 1970 On-the-job training Institutional training Vocational rehabilitation Work experience Public service employment 75 52 58 53 30 36 21 95 1972 1974 31 36 23 97 14 24 32 25 93 34 Minority race 1972 1974 73 28 57 58 72 1970 74 21 58 54 65 1970 43 54 21 56 47 56 55 96 43 49 50 84 25 33 42 44 91 36 Welfare recipients 1972 1974 39 49 21 53 36 Lets than high school education 1970 1972 1974 28 41 23 55 40 SELECTED PROGRAM ACCOMPLISHMENTS IN 1970 12 57 11 29 1972 1974 13 77 15 29 11 29 78 18 37 18 1974 —232,200 individuals placed in jobs through CMA training programs. —177,300 WIN participants placed in jobs, 118,500 of which lasted 90 days or more. —Assistance provided to programs serving 400,000 apprentices. —3 million individuals placed in 4-day or longer jobs by the Employment Services. —346,000 persons rehabilitated by HEW vocational rehabilitation programs including 110,000 who were severely disabled. 168 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 MANPOWER FUNDS BY AGENCY The following table shows manpower obligations and outlays by administering agency and major program or account. Two agencies— the Departments of Labor, and Health, Education, and Welfare will account for about 90% of all manpower outlays in 1976. Table J—14. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR MANPOWER PROGRAMS BY ADMINISTERING AGENCY (in mUlions of dollars) Obligations Agency and program Community Services Administration: CSA manpower Department of Defense: Project transition Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social services W I N support services... Vocational rehabilitation High school work study CETA support.._ __ Subtotal.HEW 1974 actual 1975 est. Outlays 1976 est. 1974 actual 1975 est. 14 11 28 28 30 10 26 26 370 90 788 8 624 70 826 8 495 97 847 373 108 755 8 617 94 819 7 495 97 830 6 2 1,244 1,537 1,430 2 1,256 1,528 1,441 Department of Housing and Urban Development: HUD manpower.... 7 19 46 29 Department of Justice: Prisoner training 5 5 4 5 5 Department of the Interior: Indian programs 33 36 50 30 36 Department of Labor: Comprehensive manpower assistance _ 1,982 2,800 2,394 1,454 2,785 Emergency employment assistance 8 605 59 Temporary employment assistance __ 1,000 350 Work incentive training and employment 250 140 233 232 222 Food stamp recipient services _ 16 24 28 16 24 Older Americans Community Service Employment. 10 10 Employment service 443 515 503 434 515 Labor market information 13 17 21 13 17 Equal employment opportunity __ _ 7 9 10 7 9 Program administration 88 85 85 74 85 Subtotal, Labor Veterans Administration: On-the-job training for veterans. Veterans vocational rehabilitation Veterans assistance centers Subtotal, VA Equal Employment Opportunity Commission: Equal employment opportunity _ Other Federal Agencies: Disadvantaged youth programs Federal contract compliance... Total 1976 est. 2,817 4,590 3,274 2,835 4,076 22 4 49 2,684 650 218 28 503 20 10 89 4,202 262 262 85 85 4 4 319 319 131 131 7 7 301 301 133 133 7 7 262 262 85 85 4 4 319 319 131 131 7 7 301 133 7 351 351 457 457 441 441 351 351 457 457 441 44 55 63 42 54 60 74 28 75 33 75 36 74 26 75 32 75 34 4,641 6,827 5,411 4,692 6,326 6,343 SPECIAL ANALYSIS K FEDERAL HEALTH PROGRAMS1 Overview.—Federal health programs will account for almost $38 billion in outlays in 1976, an increase of $2.7 billion (8%) over 1975. Federal health outlays have assumed a growing siiare of the Federal budget, as shown in Table K - l . Table K-1. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HEALTH COMPARED TO THE TOTAL FEDERAL BUDGET (dollars in billions) Estimated Actual 1969 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Total Federal outlays _ $184.5 $211.4 $231.9 $246.5 $268. 4 $313.4 $349.4 Federal health outlays $16.6 $20.2 $24.5 $26.0 $29. 2 $35.0 $37.7 10. 9 10.8 10.6 Health as percent of total outlays. __ 8.9 9.5 10.6 11.2 Table K-2 summarizes and distributes Federal health outlays by major category for 1974 through 1976. Expenditures for financing or providing health services, primarily through Medicare and Medicaid, account for a $2.6 billion increase over 1975. Table K-2. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY CATEGORY (in millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 actual Development of health resources, total Health research Training and education Construction Improving organization and delivery Provision of hospital and medical services, total Direct Federal services Indirect services Prevention and control of health problems, total Disease prevention and control Environmental control Consumer protection Total, health programs 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 4,383 2,085 1,146 761 392 23,918 4,797 19,120 888 419 90 378 5,242 2,424 1,324 967 527 28,783 5,390 23,393 1,019 458 129 432 5,362 2,512 1,145 1,108 596 31,348 5,828 25,520 989 405 137 446 29,189 35,044 37,699 1 Included in this analysis are outlays from many agencies and programs that fund health or health-related activities. Part 5 of the Budget estimates 1976 expenditures for health at $28 billion; it excludes outlays of agencies and programs devoted to health, but classified under other functions such as National Defense or Veterans Benefits and Services. The following table bridges 1976 health outlays from Part 5 to the total used here (in billions of dollars): Outlays in Part 5 28.0 Plus health outlays assigned to other functions in: Department of Defense 3. 5 Veterans Administration 4. 0 All other agencies 2- 2 Total health outlays in this analysis 37. 7 169 170 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Since World War II, a number of trends have been evident with regard to health care in the United States. The most prominent trend has been the increase in total spending for health, which has grown from $12 billion in 1950 to $104 billion in 1974—from $78 to $485 per capita. Public spending on health has also increased dramaticallv. During the 1950-74 period, spending by Federal, State, and local governments increased from $3 billion to $41 billion—from 26% to 40% of the total—primarily due to the enactment of the Medicare and Medicaid programs in the 1960's. Figure K-3 illustrates both the increase in public financing as well as the increase in total expenditures from 1965 to 1974. Public and Private Health Expenditures K-3 PUBLIC Fiscal Year 1965 $38.9 Billion Fiscal Year 1974 $104.2 Billion Another significant trend during the 1950-74 period has been the aggregate growth in health resources. The number of active physicians, for example, has risen from 272,000 in 1963 to an estimated 363,000 in 1975. During the same time, the number of active registered nurses has grown from 582,000 to about 940,000. Presently, more than 4.4 million persons are employed in health-related careers—about 4% of the civilian labor force. Health workers comprise the third largest occupational grouping in the United States. Increases in health spending and in the availability of health resources have coincided with downward trends in the Nation's overall death rates and infant mortality rates, which have been underway since early in the 20th century. Since that time, significant advances through research have taken place in medicine. Knowledge of how to prevent and treat disease has made possible the virtual elimination of certain diseases, particularly infectious diseases, that previously were major health problems. Table K-4 illustrates some indicators of health status in the United States. These advances have SPECIAL ANALYSES 171 lengthened life for many persons. On the other hand, the degenerative processes that come with age result in increased incidence of chronic diseases—which generally are more costly to treat or cure than the acute and infectious diseases. Table K-4. SELECTED INDICATORS OF HEALTH STATUS (annual rates) 1950 Birth rate (per 1,000 population) Death rate (per 1,000 population) Average life expectancy at birth in years Infant mortality rate (deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births) Leading causes of death (per 100,000 population): Diseases of the heart Cancer Cerebrovascular disease Accidents Tuberculosis, all forms Kidney diseases Diabetes Cirrhosis of liver 1960 1970 24.1 9.6 68.2 23.7 9.5 69.7 18.4 9.5 70.9 29.2 26.0 20.0 355.5 139.8 104.0 60.6 22.5 16.4 16.2 9.2 369.0 149.2 108.0 52.3 6.1 6.7 16.7 11.3 362.0 162.8 101.9 56.4 2.6 3.7 18.9 15.5 The United States has the highest per capita health expenditures in the world. The general health status of Americans, however, does not compare favorably with some of the other advanced industrialized nations. Average U.S. life expectancy rates, for example, are generally lower—especially for the nonwhite population—than those for a number of Western European countries and Canada. Table K-5. LIFE EXPECTANCY BY SEX AT SELECTED AGES, BY SELECTED COUNTRIES: 1970 Age in years Country Male Sweden Canada France _ Italy United Kingdom: England and Wales Germany: Federal Republic United States: Total _. White _ Other 65 55 35 Female Male Female Male Female 39.8 37.8 37.2 37.5 44.0 43.6 43.9 42.7 21.9 20.5 20.2 20.0 25.6 25.4 25.7 24.3 14.4 13.7 13.4 13.0 17.2 17.4 17.4 16.1 36.6 36.2 42.2 41.3 18.9 18.9 24.1 23.1 12.0 11.9 16.0 15.0 36.0 36.5 32.5 42.4 43.0 38.5 19.5 19.6 18.5 24.8 25.0 22.7 13.1 13.1 13.3 17.0 17.1 16.4 HEALTH RESOURCES Federal programs for the development of health resources include support for health research, health professions training and education, construction of medical and health facilities, and efforts to improve the organization and delivery of health services. The combined outlays for these programs, as shown in Table K-6, will be $5,362 million in 1976, an increase of $120 million from 1975. 172 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table K-6. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF HEALTH RESOURCES (in millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 actual Health research Training and education Construction Improving organization and delivery Total 1976 1975 2.085 1.146 2,424 1,324 761 392 967 527 4,383 5,242 2,512 1.145 1.108 596 5,362 Health research.—Through the support of both basic and applied research efforts, Federal biomedical and behavioral research programs attempt to provide new knowledge for use in the diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and control of disease. Federal outlays for such research has increased tremendously in recent years, from $1,102 million in 1966 to $2,512 million in 1976. Funds for Medical Research and Development K-7 $ Billions $ Billions 5 5 I O t h e r Support (Other Private Support and State and Loco! Government) 4 I Industry Support -4 Federal Support' 0 2.69 2— —2 1.84 —I 1.67 I960 1955 Fiscal Yean 1 1965 1969 1974 Covers obligations for medical and health-related research and development excluding training or constructs SPECIAL ANALYSES 173 The Federal Government supports the majority of biomedical research in this country, with 65% of total biomedical research funding. The largest Federal biomedical research agency is the National Institutes of Health (NIH) within the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW). NIH administers 65% of Federal health research funds. Table K-8. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HEALTH RESEARCH (in millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 actual Cancer Cardiovascular Mental health _ Neurological and visual Population and family planning Environmental health Aging Metabolic diseases Child health Infectious diseases. Pulmonary Dental... Other research and development 1975 estimate 397 232 123 140 47 245 46 143 72 132 42 41 425 _ Total. 2,085 517 263 133 158 55 311 52 161 82 132 47 46 469 2,424 1976 estimate 547 250 124 151 56 386 53 149 77 136 45 39 500 2,512 In addition to HEW, other Federal agencies support and conduct health research in support of their program missions. The three largest such agencies are the Energy Research and Development Administration, the Department of Defense (DOD), and the Veterans Administration (VA). Together, these agencies account for 15% of all Federal biomedical research expenditures. Table K-9. FEDERAL FUNDS TO MEDICAL SCHOOLS (in millions of dollars) Outlays Agency 1974 actual Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Research and development Education and training Construction Department of Defense Education and training Veterans Administration Education and training -. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research and development _ _ ... Total Research and development Education and training Construction..,.. - ---- 1976 estimate (1,068) (1.116) (1,078) 759 215 94 797 195 124 787 163 128 (12) (14) (15) 12 (0) 0 (4) 4 14 15 (13) (18) 13 (4) 4 18 (3) 3 (12) (13) 12 (3) 3 13 (3) 3 (ID Energy Research and Development Administration Research and development Other agencies Research and development 1975 estimate 11 (3) 3 1,098 777 227 94 1,162 816 222 124 1,130 806 196 128 174 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Training and education.—Between 45% and 50% of the revenues of the Nation's medical schools are derived from Federal grants or contracts. Table K-9 shows the Federal funds provided to medical schools from selected agencies. These outlays do not include payments for medical services from Medicare and Medicaid. The Federal Government will spend a total of $1,145 million in 1976 for health training and education, as shown in table K-10. The principal programs of direct support for health professions schools are administered by HEW and include: • operational support grants tied to enrollment levels; • special projects to stimulate, test, and demonstrate educational reforms and innovations in all the health disciplines; and • special educational initiatives in such areas as improving access to health professions education for the disadvantaged, developing new types of health workers, stimulating the practice of family medicine, and integrating medical education with health care delivery in medical scarcity areas. A program of national health service scholarships—funded at a level of $23 million—supports approximately 2,000 health professions students. These scholarships will pay all educational costs and generous stipends in return for periods of service to meet public needs, including Federal service. This program addresses the financial needs of many deserving students, the Federal Government's requirements for health professionals to discharge its essential health care responsibilities, and the problem of geographic maldistribution of health personnel. Table K-10. FEDERALLY AIDED HEALTH TRAINING AND EDUCATION (In millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 actual Degree or certificate training Research personnel Physicians Dentists Nurses Mental health professionals Other health professionals Paramedical personnel All other training Total 1975 estimate 989 105 414 75 133 40 112 110 157 1,B3 1,146 1,324 117 492 86 125 49 139 125 191 1976 estimate 973 105 462 80 75 37 102 111 172 1,145 The United States is well-supplied with total numbers of health manpower. As indicated earlier, the number of physicians in 1975 has increased 33% over the number in 1963 and registered nurses have increased by 62% in the same period. Moreover, from 1970 to 1985 the overall supply of physicians is projected to increase by 6 1 % (Fig. K - l l ) , dentists by 38% and registered nurses by 74%. Despite growing numbers, the geographic distribution of physicians and other health professionals is generally far from optimal. Among the States, the number of physicians per 100,000 population range from 196 in New York and 178 in Massachusetts, to 76 in Mississippi 175 SPECIAL ANALYSES Active Physicians, Domestic and Foreign Trained K-ll Thousands Active M.D.'s and D.O.'s Thousands Active M.D.'s and D.O.'s 600- 600 i | Foreign Trained Physicians (Including Canada Graduates) U.S. Trained Physicians 500— — 500 447 400- — 400 363 323 305 300 — 272 — 300 1 15 ' 200- — 200 100- -100 (963 1967 1970 1975 1980 1985 Projected Calendar Year Active M.D.'s Per 100,000 Population in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Counties, 1973 K-12 Total, Non-Federal M.D.'s Total, Primary Care M.D.'s General Practice J28 Internal Medicine J Metropolitan Counties I Pediatrics i j Non-Metropolitan Counties Obstetrics, Gynecolojy 50 100 150 200 176 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Physician Supply and Mortality Rates in Selected States, 1972 K-13 Death Rate Pet 1,000 Population 12.5 Active Non-Federal M.D.'s Providing Patient Care (December 31, 1971) M.D.'s Per 100,000 Population 250 Death Rate Per 1,000 Population, 1972 2008-6 1621 170 1 F" 7.5 t50 100 — — 5.0 50 — 2.5 £• UNITED Connecticut Massachusetts STATES North Dakota Colorado Idaho Maryland West Virginia and 71 in South Dakota. Figure K-12 shows the tendency for physicians to locate disproportionately in metropolitan rather than rural counties. Approximately 25% of the Nation's 25,000 psychiatrists, for example, practice in the New York, Boston, and Washington, D.C., metropolitan areas. General practitioners are found in somewhat larger proportions in nonmetropolitan counties, but their numbers are steadily declining as older physicians retire from practice and fewer new physicians choose general practice. The uneven distribution of health resources, especially health professionals, is frequently cited as a reason for this country's poor health status in relation to that of other comparable countries. The relationship between the availability of physicians, however, and one common indicator of health status, mortality rates, is ambiguous (Fig. K-13). Clearly, there are factors that bear heavily upon health other than the availability of health care services: genetic and hereditary factors; the quality of the natural environment; social and economic well-being; safe working conditions; proper housing, sanitation, and nutrition; as well as personal patterns of exercise, smoking, and drinking. All of these influence individual health status. Construction of health care facilities.—The Nation is well supplied in the aggregate with medical facilities. Figure K-14 suggests that, in contrast to the distribution of health professionals, the less populous States are relatively well-endowed with hospital beds. This geographic distribution probably reflects the impact of over 25 years of Federal hospital construction assistance through the Hill-Burton 177 SPECIAL ANALYSES General Hospital Beds Per 1,000 Population in Selected States, 197) 1 1 I I I 1 I 1 I 1 1 i I 1 K-14 t North Dakota S 1 0 s 6.9 Nebraska 1 "1i> 7.0 South Dakota 6.4 Montana 1 I 1 I 1 6.4 Rhode Island [6.2 West Virginia I l l 1 H UNITED STATES i t i 1 I 1 1 1 1 ( ^4.8 Indiana Hawaii Jj Washington J Connecticut ^ 4 . 2 ^ 4 . 2 1 1 1 4.0 1 3 | —' 4.9 New Jersey 4.0 1 1 1 i Vermont 4.0 Maryland ^3.7 1 i program. Under its statutory formula, which favored the less populous and poorer areas, the Hill-Burton program allocated more than $4 billion in grants to the States. The basic task for which the Hill-Burton program was created— improving the supply of health facilities in shortage areas—is largely completed. The Hill-Burton program's expenditures have declined over the past decade, from about 13% of total national medical facility construction expenditures in 1963, to 5% in 1972. The vast majority of medical facility construction is now financed through long-term debt service of loans from the private capital markets. Depreciation costs and debt servicing are legitimate expenses included in reimbursements from health insurance. In just the four years from 1969 to 1973, for instance, the percentage of private nonprofit hospital construction being financed by debt service increased from 40% to 60%. This trend offset reductions in the share of construction costs borne by government, philanthropy, and internally generated funds. Federal programs for the construction of health care facilities include the support of both community health care facilities to serve the general public, and facilities operated by Federal agencies for special beneficiary groups. In 1976, Federal outlays for the construction of health care facilities, including environmental health facilities, are estimated at $1,108 million. 178 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table K-15. HOSPITAL AND HEALTH FACILITY CONSTRUCTION (In millions of dollars) Outlays 1974 Federally supported construction: Hospitals, new Hospitals, modernized and replaced Long-term care facilities Research facilities Environmental health facilities Ambulatory care facilities Health professions educational facilities _ Other facilities 1975 1976 60 75 22 11 150 42 123 17 51 64 25 37 153 72 153 24 41 51 23 33 143 62 169 19 Total, federally supported 516 579 541 Federal hospitals and health facilities: Hospitals, new Hospitals, modernized and replaced. Long-term care facilities Research facilities Environmental health facilities Ambulatory care facilities Other facilities 38 141 5 18 31 5 7 96 185 8 26 44 8 21 Total, Federal 245 388 58 325 9 25 44 27 79 567 Total, construction 761 967 1,108 In 1976, $100 million of Federal construction grant assistance will be available through HEW, primarily to correct unsafe conditions in existing medical facilities, and to assist in hospital modernization and construction of outpatient facilities in medical scarcity areas. Other Federal agencies also assist in the construction of community health facilities. The Department of Housing and Urban Development, for example, provides mortgage insurance for construction of hospitals, nursing homes, and group practice facilities. Organization and delivery of health services.—The principal efforts to improve the organization and delivery of health services include health services research, support of health planning at the State and local level, and limited demonstration activities. Outlays for these purposes are estimated at $596 million in 1976. Health services research includes studies of ways to improve the organization, delivery, quality, and financing of health care services In 1976, health planning will be assisted through recently authorized Federal funding of health systems agencies throughout the country, and Federal matching grants to State health planning agencies. This new program replaces the expired comprehensive health planning, regional medical program, and Hill-Burton programs. SPECIAL ANALYSES 179 The primary Federal health care delivery demonstration activities include: • grants and contracts to assist States and localities in developing comprehensive emergency medical services systems; • grants, loans, and contracts to plan, develop, and provide initial operating support for health maintenance organizations that deliver comprehensive medical care on a prepaid basis; and o the National Health Service Corps, which will locate approximately 405 health professionals in underserved areas in 1976, to demonstrate the ability of such communities to support health personnel. Funding for these activities is included in the following section, since health services are also financed through them. FINANCING AND PROVIDING MEDICAL SERVICES Expenditures for health care in the United States continue to grow at a rapid rate. In 1969, $56 billion of total health expenditures—6.2% of the gross national product (GNP)—went for health services and supplies. By 1974, just 5 years later, national spending on such health services reached $97 billion and 7.2% of GNP. Per capita health services expenditures in the United States rose from $271 to $457 during this same period. These huge sums purchase annually over 1 billion physician visits by the U.S. civilian population, approximately 30 million incidents of hospitalization, 2.5 billion drug prescriptions, and other health services. This growth in health expenditures is attributable to various factors, such as increased demand for health services by the public, payment mechanisms that reduce out-of-pocket expenditures by individual consumers and encourage inflation of charges and unnecessary utilization, expansion of health resources, and advances in medical therapies. Figure K-16 depicts health care expenditures in per capita terms for different age groups and the sources of financing these costs in 1973. 180 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Personal Health Care Expenditures Per Capita K-16 Dollars Dollars 1200 -1200 FISCAL YEAR 1973 $1,052 -900 900 — Federal -600 600 $364 State and Local — 300 300$167 Private Under 19 Years Since the enactment of the Medicare and Medicaid programs in the mid-1960's, public funds have become a major source of financing for most health services—particularly hospital and nursing home care. Figure K-17 indicates the relative importance of these funds which account for nearly 40% of national health expenditures. SPECIAL 181 ANALYSES K-17 Sources of Health Expenditures $ Billion. SBillic 40.9 FISCAL YEAR J974 40 — -40 Federal — 30 30 State and Local 19.0 20-- -20 Private — 10 107.5 Hospital Cafe Physicians Services Nursing Home Care The impact of the increased public spending for health care for the low-income population is reflected in changing utilization patterns for health services. While the numbers of physician visits and hospitalizations per capita have not changed markedly in the past decade, surveys now disclose that the Nation's low-income population uses these health resources at higher rates than the nonpoor population (see table K-18). Another result of the changing trends in health spending is the more than 100% growth from 1964 to 1974 in the number of residents of U.S. nursing homes. These developments stem, in large part, from increased Government financing of medical services through the Medicare and Medicaid programs for the aged, disabled, and poor, together with the different health status of the poor and nonpoor. Table K-18. ANNUAL U.S. DOCTOR VISITS PER PERSON, 1964 AND 1964 All ages Under 17 years 17 to 44 years 45 to 64 years 65 years and over. 1973 1973 Poor Nonpoor Poor Nonpoor 4.3 2.3 4.1 5.1 6.0 4.6 4.0 4.7 5.1 7.3 5.6 3.8 5.7 6.3 6.5 4.9 4.3 5.0 5.4 6.9 182 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Federal programs to finance or provide hospital and medical services include Medicare and Medicaid, which account for 71% of outlays for these purposes, as well as directly administered programs for health services provided by the Department of Defense, the Veterans Administration, and HEW. Table K-19 shows Federal expenditures for financing and providing hospital and medical services. Table K-19. FEDERAL FINANCING AND PROVISION OF HEALTH SERVICES (dollars in millions) Outlays 1974 actual Financing of indirect hospital and medical services: General hospital inpatients $11,886 Psychiatric hospital inpatients 266 Long-term care inpatients 2,250 Outpatient mental health services. _ 252 Outpatient services 3,294 Other services 1,172 Total, financing of indirect services Provision of direct hospital and medical services: General hospital inpatients Psychiatric hospital inpatients Long-term care inpatients Outpatient mental health services.._ Outpatient services Other services Total, provision services of 1975 estimate Patients treated (thousands) 1976 estimate 1974 actual 1975 estimate $14,508 $15,389 11,481 12,193 379 416 829 972 2,766 3,174 1,290 1,433 364 1 398 3,996 4,667 jii 35,351 37,052 1,346 1,510 23,647 23,963 19,120 23,393 2,655 489 135 28 1,310 181 2,988 529 146 36 1,472 220 3,249 1,905 519 190 165 30 42 } ; f i A71 1.602 / 58.671 252 6,338 4,797 5,390 5,828 23,918 28,783 31,348 1976 estimate 12,249 731 1,484 35,284 24,944 25,520 1,938 194 30 co o^i 59,831 6,497 1,985 195 31 en on/: 60,896 6,649 direct Total, financing and provision ofservices Medicare and Medicaid are the Federal Government's largest health activities. In 1976, they will account for over $22 billion or 59% of Federal health outlays, and will cover more than 20% of the Nation's population. Medicare.—Medicare finances health care for the aged, disabled, and those suffering from kidney disease. It includes both hospital insurance (HI), which pays for inpatient care and subsequent skilled nursing home and home health benefits, and supplementary medical insurance (SMI), which pays for physicians' and other outpatient services. HI is financed largely through social security taxes on earnings, while SMI is financed by premiums from enrollees—currently $6.70 per month—and contributions from general tax revenues. Both insurance components are administered primarily through private insurance companies under contract with the Social Security Administration. SPECIAL ANALYSES 183 Medicare has increased rapidly in cost, rising an average of 17.5% annually from 1971-76, even including proposed savings of $1.4 billion in 1976. Estimated outlays of $15 billion will provide average benefits of nearly $1,800 per person receiving hospital insurance benefits, and over $300 per person receiving supplementary medical insurance benefits. The following table displays basic data concerning the Medicare program coverage, benefits, and administration. Table K-20. MEDICARE COVERAGE, BENEFITS, AND ADMINISTRATION (In million of dollars) 1974 actual Hospital insurance (HI): Persons with protection (millions) Beneficiaries receiving services (millions) Benefit payments Inpatient hospital services Skilled nursing facility services Home health services Administrative expenses Claims received (millions) Supplementary medical insurance (SMI): Persons with protection (millions) Beneficiaries receiving services (millions) Benefit payments Physicians' services Outpatient services Home health services Other medical and health services Administrative expenses Claims received (millions) 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 23.0 5.3 $7,806 $7,537 $206 $64 $259 10.2 23.5 5.5 $9,646 $9,320 $232 $94 $287 11.2 24.0 5-6 $10,020 $9,683 $239 $98 $330 11.8 22.7 11.6 $2,874 $2,417 $347 $36 $74 $409 80. 6 23.2 12.7 $3,551 $2,886 $529 $43 $93 $420 94.6 23.8 13.3 $4,126 $3,293 $677 $50 $106 $515 102.5 Although Medicare offers identical benefits to all enrollees, its reimbursements differ substantially in various regions of the country. These differences reflect variations in resource availability, utilization practices, and service costs. Table K-21 summarizes information on these patterns for recent years. Table K-21. MEDICARE UTILIZATION AND REIMBURSEMENT BY GEOGRAPHIC REGION Northeast Hospital Insurance (HI): Hospital beds per 1,000 population (1971) Hospital admissions per 1,000 enrollees (1972). Average length of hospital stay (days) (1969). HI reimbursement per enrollee (1972) Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI): Physicians per 100,000 population (1971) SMI reimbursement per enrollee '1972) North Central South West 8.7 268 7.4 325 7.3 346 5.9 313 15.1 $331 13.6 $301 11.9 $249 10.6 $321 161 111 104 144 $126 $90 $105 $144 184 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Medicaid.—Medicaid is a State-Federal program that finances medical services to families with dependent children receiving public assistance and to most aged, blind, and disabled persons eligible for supplementary security income payments. States may also choose to finance medical services for the medically needy, i.e., those persons with income slightly above the public assistance level who are unable to pay their medical expenses. In 1976, health care services under Medicaid will be provided to approximately 26 million recipients. The Federal outlays will be $7.2 billion, an 18.2% annual rise since 1971, even including proposed legislative savings in 1976 of $610 million. State and local governments will spend an additional $6.9 billion in 1976. The following [table depicts Federal obligations and other selected program indicators based on State estimates. Table K-22. MEDICAID COVERAGE, BENEFITS, AND ADMINISTRATION Total payments to medical vendors (millions) Federal share.. ... Total administrative costs (millions) Federal share . Recipients of service (millions) Aged 65 or over Blind and disabled Children under 21 Adults in AFDC families 1974 actual 1975 estimate $9,756 $5,563 $473 $270 24.3 4.2 2.2 11.1 6.8 $12,167 $6,493 $481 $275 24.7 4.3 2.3 11.3 6.9 1976 estimate $13,525 $6,829 $574 $327 25.6 4.3 2.3 11.7 7.2 Approximately 65% of Federal Medicaid benefits payments will finance inpatient and long-term care in 1976. The remaining dollars will finance outpatient services, as shown in table K-23. Table K-23. ESTIMATED MEDICAID BENEFITS, 1976 Outlays (millions) Hospitals Mental hospitals Long-term care facilities Physicians services Outpatient drugs Dental care Outpatient hospital and clinic service Other Total $1,767 $281 $2,403 $701 $453 $190 $441 $593 $6,829 Percent 26 4 35 10 7 3 6 9 100 SPECIAL ANALYSES 185 The States determine most of the eligibility levels and medical benefits under the Medicaid program. As a result, there are variations in these program elements among States. Although the Medicaid matching formula provides higher Federal matching to low-income States, most of the program funds go to high-income States. More affluent States have proved better able and willing to expand the population and services covered. Six of the highest income States received over 50% of all Federal Medicaid funds in 1974, and two States—New York and California—received over 30% of these funds. Proposed legislation will attempt to address these discrepancies by reducing the minimum Federal match from 50% to 40% for the 13 highest income States. Tax expenditures.—After Medicare and Medicaid, the greatest Federal support for health expenditures results from special provisions of the tax code. The exclusion of employer health insurance contributions from the taxable income of the employee will result in $3.7 billion of tax subsidies for health insurance premiums in 1976. An additional $2.6 billion in revenue loss will result from itemized deductions for certain health expenditures and insurance premiums on individual income tax. Other programs.—In addition to Medicaid and Medicare, the Federal Government finances or provides medical services for certain special categories of beneficiaries—such as Armed Forces personnel, retirees, and their dependents, veterans, and American Indians and Alaska Natives. In addition, the Federal Government provides assistance to States and local governments to finance comprehensive health services. This assistance takes the following forms: • Federal formula and project grants and contracts.—Federal assistance is provided for the support of State-administered maternal and child health centers, neighborhood and family health centers, migrant health centers and family planning services. The Federal Government also provides operating assistance for existing community mental health centers, and centers for alcohol and drug abuse. Outlays for these health and social services grants and contracts will amount to $886 million in 1976. • Indian health services.—Outlays for Indian health services and facilities will rise to $322 million in 1976, a $29 million increase over 1975. These funds provide comprehensive health care with an emphasis on ambulatory care, as well as construction of sanitation facilities, hospitals, and clinics. 186 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table K-24. SELECTED INDICATORS OF INDIAN HEALTH STATUS (Annual rates) [Selected indicators of health status of American Indians and the general U.S. population] Indians and Alaska Natives Birth rate (per 1,000 population) Death rate (per 1,000 population) Average life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality rate (deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 live births) 1 Leading causes of death (per 100,000 population) : Heart Accidents Influenza and pneumonia Certain diseases of early infancy Cancer Cirrhosis of liver 1 General population 1950 I960 1970 1973 1970 1973 36.2 12.9 60.0 42.7 9.1 61.7 32.6 7.7 64.0 30.9 7.7 65.1 18.4 9.5 70.9 15.0 9.4 71.3 85.8 50.3 23.8 19.5 20.0 17.6 148.8 135.5 125.9 155.2 1C8.0 95.0 77.3 66.7 60.3 65.2 7.7 20.7 142.0 157.1 38.6 29.6 62.6 45.5 131.0 174.3 41.1 19.6 67.0 45.5 362.0 359.5 56.4 54.8 30.9 29.1 21.3 14.8 162.8 168.4 15.5 16.0 Excludes Alaska Natives. Over the last 20 years, the health status of Indians and Alaska Natives has greatly improved. Since 1950, for example, there has been an increase in Indian average life expectancy, and a decline in infant mortality and deaths due to diseases such as influenza and pneumonia. In recent years, the overall health status of Indians and Alaska Natives has come close to that of the general U.S. population, as indicated in table K-24. Differences in health status remain, however, especially in connection with causes of death associated with reservation social conditions. Efforts to further improve the health status of American Indians will continue in the coming years. Based on an eligible federally recognized Indian population of 500,000, 1976 spending on Indian health care will result in over $640 per Indian, or over $2,500 per Indian family of four. This compares to the national average per capita expenditures for health from all sources of about $600 in 1976. • Medical care to active and retired military personnel and their dependents.—In 1976, DOD will operate 183 hospitals and other health facilities directly and will contract with community facilities to provide additional care for its beneficiaries. Outlays for these services will be $3.5 billion in 1976, or $244 million more than in 1975. • Medical care to veterans.—VA will operate 171 hospitals, 107 long-term care facilities, and 229 outpatient clinics. It will also provide contract care for certain veterans at an estimated cost of $91 million in 1976, an increase of $6 million over the 1975 level. Outlays for outpatient care in 1976 are expected to rise to $672 million. Total VA outlays for direct and contract care will amount to $3.5 billion in 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSES 187 • Health insurance for Federal employees.—Health benefits are provided to 2.9 million Federal civilian employees and annuitants and their dependents under the Federal employees health benefits programs managed by the Civil Service Commission. In 1976, Federal payments to finance these programs will increase by $187 million to $1,009 million. Distribution of health care outlays by age groups and economic status.—Table K-25 distributes Federal outlays for the financing and direct provision of hospital and medical services among three major age groups and between indigent and nonindigent persons. Outlays for the development of health resources and for prevention and control of health problems are excluded from the table, since they are not normally distributed by population group or income. Table K-25. ESTIMATED FEDERAL HEALTH CARE OUTLAYS BY POPULATION AND INCOME GROUPS (in millions of dollars) Outlays Total, all recipients Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youth (0-18) Indigent persons, total Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youth (0-18) Nonindigent persons, total Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youth (0-18) . . 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 23,918 28,783 31,348 13,542 8,198 2,178 15,984 10,250 2,550 17,269 11,351 2,728 7,739 9,216 10,086 2,730 3,726 1,283 3,258 4,464 1,494 3,557 4,909 1,620 16,180 19,566 21,262 10,641 4,499 1,040 12,620 5,759 1,187 13,557 6,447 1,259 PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HEALTH PROBLEMS The Federal Government supports programs to prevent and control health problems, mainly in the areas of communicable disease control, occupational health, mental illness prevention, consumer safety, environmental control, accident prevention, and foreign health assistance. Table K-26 shows Federal outlays for the prevention and control of health problems, which in 1976 are estimated at $989 million, compared to $888 million in 1974. 188 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 76 Table K-26. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HEALTH PROBLEMS (in millions of dollars) 1974 ctual 1975 estimate 420 90 378 Disease prevention and control Environmental control Consumer safety Total, prevention and control. 1976 estimate 458 129 432 405 137 446 1,019 989 Disease prevention and control.—-Disease control includes those activities directed toward the prevention of diseases and injuries through research, regulator activities, provision of preventive services, and public education. Reported Cases of Selected Communicable Diseases in U.S., 1964—1974 K-27 See scale in ( }'s See scale in ( )'s •6 V K \ 4— 3—\ KV Diphtheria (OO's) J t Rubella (0, OOO's) c \ \ \ Measles (00, 000's) 2— 1— 1972 1973 1974 These activities seek to avoid medical problems through proper preventive measures. Incidence of the most common communicable diseases, for instance, has dropped significantly in the last decade as increasing numbers of the population have been immunized against polio, measles, diphtheria, and other such diseases (see Figures K-27 and K-28). The Federal Government began its efforts in the early 1960's to raise immunization rates through assistance to States and localities. The resulting improvements in immunization rates are credited with preventing many illnesses and deaths. 189 SPECIAL ANALYSES Immunization Rates of Children 1—4 Years Old, 1964—1974 K-28 Percent Percent — 100 100 Diphtheria "Tetanus " Pertussis — 80 40 20- 1964 1965 1966 Calendar Year 1967 1968 1969 lB:i::: 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 'Robdlo (G«emm> Me<nl«) votcine wo* li<:ens«<J in lime 19« The Center for Disease Control in HEW will continue in 1976 to focus its efforts on the control of communicable diseases through assistance to States and localities in the form of grants, technical assistance, and public education. The Federal Government will undertake expanded occupational health programs in 1976 to detect and eliminate hazards in the workplace. Increased emphasis will be placed on the development of occupational safety and health standards to be applied by the Department of Labor and the Department of the Interior. In the area of mental illness, the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration provides grants to States and localities, and supports clearinghouses and media campaigns. These activities help develop State and local capacity for initiating prevention programs, demonstrate new and more effective prevention methods, and provide the public—especially high risk populations—with accurate information about substance abuse and mental health problems. Consumer safety.—In 1976, outlays of $446 million will be spent on efforts to protect the public from unsafe foods, drugs, and other products, and to reduce injuries from automobile accidents. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in HEW will continue to play a major role in improving the quality and safety of the Nation's food supply, and in helping assure the safety and effectiveness of drugs and medical devices. FDA and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will continue support of the National Center for Toxicological Research, which performs long-term studies of the effects of low concentrations of chemicals in the environment and foods. 190 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 In 1976, the Consumer Product Safety Commission will continue research, information dissemination, and regulatory measures to protect consumers from unreasonable risks from certain consumer products. The Department of Transportation will also work to prevent automobile accidents and to reduce injuries from such accidents through its emergency medical services program. In 1973, about 56,000 deaths resulted from motor vehicle accidents. Environmental control.—The major Federal effort in environmental control is administered by EPA, which maintains surveillance of the effects of environmental pollution on the health of the American people, promulgates environmental standards, and monitors compliance. In other environmental activities, HEW will continue demonstration programs in selected urban communities in 1976 to control childhood lead-based paint poisoning and rodents. Foreign health assistance.—In 1976, the United States will provide $135 million for disease prevention and control assistance to other nations. These funds will support efforts by the Agency for International Development, the Peace Corps, and international agencies to which the United States contributes financially such as the World Health Organization and the Pan American "Health Organization. SPECIAL SUMMARIES Special summaries in the health analysis include drug and alcohol abuse or substance abuse, prevention activities, the provision of family planning services, and venereal disease prevention activities. Substance abuse.—In 1976, the estimated outlays for substance abuse prevention activities will be $810 million. Most of the federally supported substance abuse treatment, rehabilitation, prevention, and research activities are funded through the Social and Rehabilitation Service and the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA) within HEW. Defense and VA will continue efforts to remedy drug and alcohol problems among military personnel and veterans. Within the Department of Justice, the Bureau of Prisons administers drug and alcoholrelated treatment and rehabilitation services for Federal prisoners, the Drug Enforcement Administration conducts education and research programs, and the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration supports a broad range of community efforts to prevent the abuse of alcohol and drugs. The Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention terminates June 30, 1975, as mandated by Congress; many of its program responsibilities will be assumed by the National Institute on Drug Abuse within ADAMHA. Total drug abuse treatment capacity has stabilized, although shifts among geographic areas continue. Treatment capacity now exists for virtually every heroin addict who seeks treatment. Outlays for all drug abuse prevention activities rose from $403 million in 1974 to $510 million in 1975. This effort will continue in 1976 with outlays of $466 million. These outlays are in addition to law enforcement activities which amount to $305 million in 1976 and are discussed in Special Analysis N. In sum, total 1976 outlays for all Federal drug abuse activities will be $771 million compared to $603 million in 1974. Table K-29. ESTIMATED OUTLAYS FOR SUBSTANCE ABUSE PREVENTION PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) Alcohol abuse Treatment and rehabilitation (total) Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration. Social and Rehabilitation Service Office for Human Development Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Justice __ Other* Prevention and education (total) Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration. Office of Education Department of Defense _ Veterans Administration _ _ Department of Justice Department of Transportation Other* Research, planning, and coordination (total) Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration. Other H E W . . . . ._ Department of Defense _ Veterans Administration Department of Justice Department of Transportation Other* TotaL Drug abuse Total substance abuse 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 215.4 284.1 276.0 267.5 349.8 325.1 482.9 633.9 601.1 57.2 77.0 30.0 8.6 37.7 .3 4.6 109.1 88.0 32.0 9.2 41.5 .2 4.1 92.6 81.0 33.0 10.3 54.8 4.3 92.8 54.0 8.8 43.0 28.8 24.4 15.7 158.2 59.0 9.3 37.3 30.0 30.8 25.2 148.9 63.0 7.2 41.0 31.0 30.0 4.0 150.0 131.0 38.8 51.6 66.5 24.7 20.3 267.3 147.0 51.3 46.5 71.5 31.0 29.3 241.5 144.0 40.2 51.3 85.8 30.0 8.3 30.3 38.3 33.6 59.3 62.2 55.6 89.6 100.5 89.2 23.3 30.0 24.7 36.0 5.9 10.6 .4 4.0 .1 5.2 36.9 1.9 8.0 .4 3.9 .1 53.7 6.1 13.0 .6 3.8 4.1 8.3 oO.O 5.9 14.3 .6 4.0 3.9 5.8 61.6 1.9 12.2 .6 3.9 3.9 5.1 1974 2.3 .2 3.7 .2 4.2 .2 4.0 .5 3.8 .6 3.8 .7 30.4 6.1 10.7 .4 3.8 .1 7.8 43.7 40.4 35.1 76.2 98.4 84.8 119.9 138.8 119.9 11.0 .5 2.4 2.5 .2 27.0 .1 18.5 .6 2.1 2.8 .1 16.2 .1 15.6 .6 2.3 3.1 42.2 4.0 19.6 1.9 4.2 .5 26.0 45.1 3.3 18.9 1.8 13.4 .1 38.1 5.1 14.9 1.1 3.0 0.4 13.6 .6 10.2 49.1 5.6 17.3 3.6 3.2 27.4 13.7 60.7 4.6 21.7 4.7 4.3 16.7 26.1 60.7 3.9 21.2 4.9 4.9 14.0 10.3 289.4 362.8 344.7 403.0 510.4 465.5 692.4 873.2 810.2 4.9 •Includes Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention and substance abuse prevention activities within, HUD. Labor. State, Agriculture, and other agencies. 192 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Outlays for alcoholism and alcohol abuse prevention activities will rise from $289 million in 1974 to $345 million in 1976. The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism in ADAMHA will continue to support its ongoing alcoholism treatment and prevention demonstration projects. The Social and Rehabilitation Service in HEW will spend at least $81 million for treatment and rehabilitation of persons with alcohol-related problems. Other Federal programs involved in the effort to reduce alcoholism and its effects are administered by VA and Defense, which in 1976 will spend $75 million to address alcohol-related problems among veterans and military personnel. In 1976, the Department of Transportation will spend over $17 million for research and developmental activities designed to reduce alcohol-related deaths and accidents occurring on the Nation's roadways. In addition to the estimated funds for substance abuse prevention shown in table K-29, the Federal Government will spend an estimated $2.7 billion in 1976 through the Department of Labor's comprehensive manpower assistance program. Communities can use these funds, according to their determination of need, for broad manpower service programs that include training and employment of alcohol and drug abusers. Family planning.—As table K-30 indicates, obligations in 1976 for Federal family planning services are estimated at $240 million in the Health Services Administration and the Social and Rehabilitation Service in HEW. Efforts will continue to focus on providing services to low-income persons who desire, but could not otherwise afford, these services. Family planning research activities are supported by the National Institutes of Health and the Agency for International Development. Obligations for this research will increase to $55 million in 1976. Table K-30. F A M I L Y P L A N N I N G S E R V I C E S A N D RESEARCH (In millions of dollars) Obligations 1974 actual Research: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of State: Agency for International Development. Research,total. __ _ Services: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services Administration _ _ Social and Rehabilitation Service Services, total _____ Family planning programs total 1 2 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5 46 5 50 5 56 51 55 2 160 87 139 101 136 104 247 240 240 303 291 295 Includes $7 million under the 1973 continuing resolution, released for obligation in 1974. Includes $30 million under the 1973 continuing resolution, released for obligation in 1974. SPECIAL ANALYSES 193 Venereal disease.—The incidence of gonorrhea has been increasing steadily in the United States since the early 1960's, and the rate of syphilis has been increasing since 1970. In 1972, the Federal Government increased its effort to assist in controlling both of these diseases through substantially increased support to States and localities. During 1974, the incidence of infectious syphilis leveled off and the rate of increase of gonorrhea dropped to 7%, compared with annual increases of 12% and 14% in the previous 2 years. In 1976, Federal outlays for venereal disease control are estimated to be $31 million, excluding Federal assistance for venereal disease treatment through the Medicaid program. Table K-31. VENEREAL DISEASE TRENDS Primary and secondary syphilis Cases reported 1941 1950 1957 1965 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974. __ 68,231 32,148 6,251 23,250 18,679 20,186 23.336 24,000 25,080 24,728 Rates per 100,000 51.7 21.6 3.8 12.3 9.3 10.0 11.5 11.7 12.1 11.9 Gonorrhea Cases reported 193,468 303,992 216,476 310,155 494,227 573.200 624,371 718,401 809,681 874,161 Rates per 100,000 146.7 204.0 129.8 163.8 245.9 285.2 307.5 349.7 392.2 420.1 EXPENDITURES FOR HEALTH ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY The following tables distribute the health-related outlays of Federal agencies by the categories used in this analysis. Health activities of HEW, the Consumer Product Safety Commission, parts of the Civil Service Commission, the Departments of Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, and Agriculture are included under the health function (550) in Part 5 of the Budget document. Healthrelated outlays of all other agencies are, because of their major purpose, assigned to other functions. The following tables, therefore, indicate the predominant budget functional code for each agency. Other special analyses such as those on research and development, education, and manpower also include all Federal outlays in their areas. They will thus include, where pertinent, the same outlays that are tabulated in this analysis. 580-700 O - 75 - 13 Table K-32. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1974 (In millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (total) Health Services Administration Health Resources Administration Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Center for Disease Control National Institutes of Health Food and Drug Administration Assistant Secretary for Health Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service OtherHEW Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Energy Research and Development Administration Department of Labor Department of State National Science Foundation Other agencies Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1974 _ 550 551 551 550 550 553 550 553 550 551 551/600 500 051 703 451 350 304 250 251 553 150 250 Health research (1,583) 55 2 128 36 1,386 20 4 3 1 107 78 45 17 64 115 1 Training and education (767) 33 452 106 1 145 OrganizaConstrue- tion and tion delivery (377) 38 277 15 (244) -11 182 33 28 1 1 26 12 Direct Federal hospital and medical Indirect Federal hospital and medical (218) 176 (17,741) 525 38 256 4 11 11,348 5,586 15 474 148 2 30 191 167 17 86 107 156 1 1 18 54 Prevention and control of health problems 2,062 2,488 6 44 31 4 7 2 8 4 12 28 59 29 11 745 2,085 1,146 761 392 4,797 19,120 1 551 Total (454) (21,384) 135 901 17 929 56 632 96 134 1,584 144 165 8 38 11,348 5,591 2 62 13 2,934 3,006 210 244 290 3 20 64 121 61 69 25 45 45 88 255 745 888 29,189 Table K-33. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1975 (In millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (total) Health Services Administration Health Resources Administration.,.. Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Center for Disease Control National Institutes of Health Food and Drug Administration Assistant Secretary for Health Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service Other HEW Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture _ Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Energy Research and Development Administration Department of Labor Department of State National Science Foundation Other agencies Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1975 550 551 550 556 553 550 553 550 551 551/600 500 051 703 450 350 304 250 251 553 150 250 Training and education Health research (1,845) 5 2 136 41 1,633 22 3 (860) 38 490 132 2 165 Construetion Organization and delivery (476) 62 325 25 (363) 31 221 65 43 2 1 27 3 Direct Federal hospital and medical services Indirect Federal hospital and medical services (260) 211 (21,473) 617 45 407 13 3 4 2 2 23 33 1 11 13,903 6,517 18 592 223 33 219 223 9 157 142 156 8 6 46 53 1 5 7 2 7 21 90 32 31 1,073 2,424 1,324 966 527 5,390 23,393 103 91 47 29 65 143 2 2,187 2,911 4 12 1 ____ 551 Prevention and control of health problems Total (504) (25,781) 156 1,120 18 1,056 56 866 96 139 1,868 171 196 7 38 13,903 6,525 61 11 3,271 3,613 189 262 317 5 34 65 150 91 102 24 45 48 122 356 1,073 1,019 35,044 Table K-34. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1976 (In millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (total) Health Services Administration Health Resources Administration Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Center for Disease Control National Institutes of Health Food and Drug Administration Assistant Secretary for Health Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service Other HEW Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration Energy Research and Development Administration Department of Labor Department of State National Science Foundation Other agencies Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1976 550 551 550 550 553 550 553 550 551 551/600 500 051 703 450 350 304 250 251 553 150 250 Health research Training and education (1,831) 5 2 128 44 1,621 254 3 1 118 95 51 43 81 168 1 51 73 (661) 38 370 93 2 143 15 222 230 Construetion Organization and delivery (451) 72 304 25 (390) 86 159 65 42 3 1 27 4 279 190 146 1 Direct Federal hospital and medical services Indirect Federal hospital and medical services Prevention and control of health problems (235) 226 (23,367) 553 5 379 37 4 7 9 2 21 26 1 1 2,314 3,245 16 14,990 7,412 17 566 238 10 5 8 2 18 4 13 31 140 1 34 551 1,348 2,512 1,145 1,108 596 5,828 25,520 Total (469) (27,404) 112 1,091 6 841 50 745 104 150 1,833 187 215 8 70 14,990 7,423 2 46 14 3,515 4,019 172 272 324 4 47 81 178 107 117 27 49 53 96 392 1,348 989 37,699 SPECIAL ANALYSIS L FEDERAL INCOME SECURITY PROGRAMS Federal income security programs provide essential income protection for millions of Americans. A major, although not exclusive, objective of these programs is to increase the income of people at the lower end of the income scale. The programs included in this analysis are divided into two broad categories: —Cash benefits, such as social security and other income replacement programs. —In-kind benefits, such as health care and food stamps, which effectively increase real income by providing necessary goods. In addition, several major tax expenditures contribute to income security. OVERVIEW Total Federal income security benefits are estimated to exceed $152 billion in 1976. This represents an increase of over $41 billion or about 38%, from the 1974 total of $111 billion. There are many factors accounting for this change: —By law, $96 billion of the 1976 outlays are in programs tied to the cost of living. —Primarily because of increased costs of medical care, health care benefits will increase. —The new supplemental security income program has increased both average benefits and the number of eligible recipients compared to the State-operated adult programs for the aged, blind, and disabled, which it replaced. —Outlays of $17.4 billion for unemployment insurance reflect both an increase in benefit levels and also in the number of eligible workers. For those programs presently tied by law to changes in the Consumer Price Index, legislation will be proposed to limit benefit increases to 5% during 1976. 197 198 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table L-1. FEDERAL INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS Federal outlays for cash benefits (millions): Social security (OADSI) Federal employee benefits Veterans benefits Public assistance Unemployment insurance Railroad retirement Other programs Proposed legislation included above Subtotal outlays, cash benefits 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 54,007 11,322 7,167 6,832 5,208 2,621 1,097 62,294 14,122 8,000 8,410 13,581 2,972 1,073 (—60) 68,753 15,534 8,061 9,214 17,047 3,211 1,069 (—4,632) 88,255 110,511 122,889 Federal outlays for in-kind benefits (millions): Food and nutrition Healthcare Housing Proposed legislation included above 4,466 16,669 1,776 5,534 20,171 2,190 (—255) 5,207 22,079 2,653 (—2,025) Subtotal outlays, in-kind benefits 22,912 27,895 29,940 111,167 138,346 152,829 Total benefits TARGET GROUPS Federal income security programs maintain or supplement income of persons and families whose capacity for self-support is reduced by old age, disability, illness, unemployment, poverty or death of the primary wage earner. Where self-support is possible in part, or in the future, income security programs provide supplementary or temporary support. Where self-support is not possible, income security programs provide basic support. The analysis below is organized by target group in that programs are discussed as they provide support to people sharing similar problems and circumstances—the aged (annuitants and others); the unemployed; mothers with small children and no breadwinner; and those low-income persons who do not earn enough to provide for basic needs. Needs-tested benefits are also indicated by target group. Table L-2. INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS BY TARGET GROUPS Annuitants Other aged Disabled Mothers and children. Temporarily unemployed Other transitional low income Other Total 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 Percent estimate of total 1976 31,813 33.884 16,750 8,559 5,530 8,082 6,549 37,051 39,473 20,925 9,608 13,903 9,569 7,816 40,391 43,211 23,140 10,471 17,423 10,412 7,781 26.7 28.2 15.1 6.8 11.4 6.8 5.0 111,167 138,346 152,829 100.0 Change 1974-76 9,118 9,327 6,390 1,912 11,893 2,330 1,232 41,662 Percent change 1974-76 28.7 27.5 38.2 22.3 15.1 28.8 18.8 37.5 SPECIAL ANALYSES 199 THE AGED Income security benefits for the elderly consist of wage replacement for workers retired from full-time gainful employment, benefits to women who depended on their husband's incomes as the main source of support, and assistance to those who were needy before they became aged. In-kind program benefits received by the aged include medical care through medicare and medicaid, as well as food and shelter on an income-tested basis. Several provisions of the Federal personal income tax are designed to benefit the aged. The largest benefits result from the extra personal exemptions available to persons 65 or over and from the exclusion of all social security benefits (not just the portion representing a return of contributions) from taxable income. These two tax expenditures are expected to result in a loss of receipts of $1.2 billion and $2.9 billion, respectively, in 1976. In addition, the retirement income credit and the exclusion from income of railroad retirement benefits are tax expenditures estimated at $0.1billion and $0.2 billion in 1976. The combined loss of tax receipts from the retired and elderly due to these four provisions is an estimated $5.1 billion in 1976 (larger than their simple sum). Other tax provisions are directed to the future security of aged persons by encouraging private provision for retirement years. The major benefits flow from the exclusion of employer contributions to and earnings of qualified pension funds from the employee's taxable income. After allowing for deferred taxes collected from present retirees, the net loss in receipts from this tax expenditure is estimated to be $5.7 billion in 1976. Pension reform legislation enacted in 1974 expanded the similar tax provisions for noncovered or self-employed persons, and will result in an estimated tax expenditure of $0.7 billion for these persons in 1976. Table L-3. INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS FOR THE AGED Benefit (millions) 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Percent increase 1974-76 Covered employment: Social Security (OASI) members Railroad employees Federal civilian employees Uniformed services members Coal miners* widows Public assistance.... Income-tested veterans pension.... 42.762 2.337 4,251 758 194 1,438 1,421 48,984 2,651 5,478 919 213 1,887 1,496 53,777 3,019 5,996 978 238 2,023 1,533 25.8 29.2 41.0 29.1 22.8 40.7 7.9 Subtotal cash benefit outlays 53,161 61,628 67,565 27.1 9,899 2,248 389 11,781 2,648 490 12,424 3,060 554 25.5 36.1 42.3 Subtotal in-kind benefit outlays 12.535 14,919 16,038 27.9 Total 65,696 76,547 83,602 27.3 Medicare Medicaid Other in-kind 200 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Annuitants.—In all four federally run contributory retirement systems, the benefit calculations are based upon past earnings and are subsequently increased to reflect cost-of-living increases. All four systems have also overcompensated for inflation. Between 1970 and 1976, the CPI will have increased 51% while OASI benefits have increased 77% and civil service and foreign service benefits have increased 55%. Under old-age and survivors insurance (OASI), 12.4 million retired workers received benefits in 1974. Some recipients in 1974 were primary beneficiaries under the railroad retirement system, but about 39% of these retirees were also beneficiaries under the social security system. A total of 691,000 persons were beneficiaries of the civil service and of the foreign service retirement system. Approximately 43% of the beneficiaries of the two Federal civilian employee systems are also receiving social security. The probable total number of primary beneficiaries of all the contributory retirement systems is thus 11.9 million persons in 1974 and 13.1 million in 1976. Table L-4. ANNUITIES TO PRIMARY BENEFICIARIES IN CONTRIBUTORY RETIREMENT SYSTEMS: ANNUITY BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENTS BY SYSTEM Benefit outlays (millions) 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. Old-age and survivors insurance Railroad Retirement Board. .__ Civil Service Commission Foreign Service retirement Total 26,556 30,488 33,194 Number of primary beneficiaries (thousands) 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. 12,394 12,859 13,616 179 203 227 296 464 319 541 350 579 1,394 3,831 1,572 4,946 1,743 5,400 386 688 399 762 401 777 32 46 54 3 3 4 31,813 37,051 40,391 Average monthly payments 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. 971 1,208 1.278 __.. .... .... Other aged.—This category includes income support to the aged in which the benefits are based upon criteria other than past earnings. The criterion of the program may be a work history of some related person, and is not necessarily based on any measure of need. Underlying the purpose of these programs is the presumption that persons past a certain age (for example, 65) are generally not self-supporting through their own current earnings. Aged widows.—Aged widows account for $15.4 billion in benefit outlays in 1976—or 36% of all benefits to the aged outside of annuities to primary beneficiaries. The 32.8% increase in benefit outlays to aged widows between 1974 and 1976 is due largely to the increase in widows' benefits to 100% of the deceased husband's primary insurance amount and increased benefit levels under the social security and the railroad retirement systems. Some 4.8 million aged widows will receive benefits from social security in 1976 with 1.2 million widows covered in other programs. There is considerable overlap of these program beneficiaries with those covered by social security. Tax expenditures again SPECIAL ANALYSES 201 augment the value of these benefits. The exclusion from taxable income of social security benefits for dependents and survivors is estimated to result in a $0.5 billion revenue loss in 1976. Aged wives of retirees.—The entitlement of wives under OASI and railroad retirement is independent of any contribution history of their own, and requires only that they exceed a particular age. Where a wife has dual entitlement under social security based upon her earnings history, as well as her husband's, she will receive only the larger benefit. In the railroad retirement system, she receives both benefits. In 1976, 536,000 wives will have dual entitlement under social security in which the wife's benefit exceeds the benefit based upon her own earnings. Table L-5. BENEFITS FOR THE AGED EXCEPT ANNUITIES TO PRIMARY BENEFICIARIES: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Number of beneficiaries (thousands) Benefits (millions) 1974 actual Benefits to aged widows: Social security (OAS DI) members Railroad employees Federal civilian employees Uniformed services members Coal miners Benefits to aged wives of living retirees: Social security (OAS DI) members Railroad employees.._ Minimum benefit payments: Social security (OAS DI) members Railroad employees Dependents of aged retirees: Social security (OASDI) members. __ Aged retirees uniformed services Aged veterans Medicare Public assistance to the aged: Old-age assistance Supplemental security income Medicaid In-kind benefits to needy aged: Food Housing Total 1 2 3 1974 1975 1976 1975 1976 1974 1975 1976 9,764 11,309 13,037 4,402 4,639 4,826 575 668 835 280 290 290 163 165 183 183 202 237 388 486 542 182 191 198 178 212 228 709 194 778 213 792 239 636 83 635 91 620 98 93 195 102 194 106 205 3,748 4,324 4,565 345 388 416 3,335 2,100 3,416 2,130 3,411 2,175 89 137 100 144 111 150 1,942 1,981 1,878 1,815 23 23 25 13 13 12 74 136 82 146 90 156 858 940 1,039 651 653 680 110 120 127 563 79 60 586 84 62 1,836 1,923 591 650 82 88 92 9,899 1,047 11,758 1,070 12,424 1,122 15,714 1.105 16,246 1,064 16,768 488 74 52 *588 27 13 1,877 62 38 26 479 991 23 850 2,248 1,860 2,648 3 2,010 3,060 145 244 182 308 176 378 33,883 Benefits for first half of year. Benefits for second half of yeai Federal payment only, Average monthly paymenti 39,473 43,211 3 1,760 4,200 843 625 3 2,055 4,263 991 694 3 2,345 2 380 4,327 45 1,015 786 14 33 36 3 75 29 3 74 52 59 15 37 14 40 202 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Payments based on the minimum.—These are statutory minimum amounts paid to retired workers, to the dependents of such retired workers, and to noninsured beneficiaries age 72 and over. Aged retirees of the uniformed services.—The retirement systems for the uniformed and military services are noncontributory, with benefits based on time in service and the rank achieved at the time of retirement, rather than the overall earnings history of the individual. Because military service is credited for social security coverage, there is substantial overlap between the military retirement systems and OASI. THE DISABLED Disabled.—The disabled constitute the second target group for whom there is a presumption of permanent inability to achieve selfsupport. Eligibility for an income security benefit for the disabled person may be based on: membership in a contributory retirement system (OASDI or civil service), on military service, on occupation (coal miner), or on indigency (welfare). Members of the social security system and the railroad retirement system are eligible for retirement benefits computed on their earnings history to the date of permanent disability. They are also eligible for medicare benefits. Federal civilian employees receive a disability benefit based on total disability for their previous occupation—paying a minimum benefit of 40% of the average of their highest 3 years of earnings. Benefits to the disabled in the uniformed services are scaled to the degree of physical impairment rather than previous levels of earnings. Disability retirement from the military, and veterans compensation and indemnities, are both provided for disabilities which are presumptively service-connected. Veterans' pensions provide benefits to persons who have seen wartime military service for non-serviceconnected but presumptively total disability where financial need can be demonstrated. Under the Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act, compensation is paid to black lung victims in amounts related to the workmen's compensation law provided for Federal employees (FECA). Eligible persons began registering for benefits in the spring of 1970. Many received a one-time retroactive benefit in 1974. Beginning in 1974, 1.3 million needy disabled received assistance under the new Federal Supplemental Security Income program enacted in 1972 to replace State administered programs of assistance to the blind and disabled. By 1976, that number will grow to almost 1.6 million needy disabled. Approximately 4% million persons will receive disability benefits under social security in 1976. Another 291,000 individuals will receive benefits through Federal civilian employee programs. There is a substantial overlap between these two groups and those receiving disability benefits because of prior military service or employment in coal mines. SPECIAL ANALYSES 203 Table L-6. BENEFITS FOR THE DISABLED: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Benefits (millions) 1974 actual Civilian covered employment: Disability insurance... Federal civilian employees.. Railroad employees... Coal miners Medicare for the disabled. Uniformed services: Military service-connected disability..._ Other: Income-tested.. Other: Non-incometested _ Public assistance to the disabled: Aid to the blind Aid to the permanently and totally disabled. Supplemental security income AFDC (disabled male head of family) Medicaid In-kind benefits to needy disabled: Food _. Total Number of beneficiaries (thousands) 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. Average monthly payments 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. 1975 est. 1976 est. 6,159 7,636 8,776 3,561 3,897 4,256 222 250 277 1,129 221 655 781 1.438 241 623 1,439 1,603 208 618 1,722 260 115 321 1,701 285 113 359 1,964 291 110 351 2,167 362 160 170 110 421 178 145 160 459 158 147 178 3,989 463 4,608 489 4,630 500 3,117 735 3,127 724 3,125 697 107 52 123 56 123 60 9 11 12 2 2 3 310 359 381 132 (2) (2) 78 (4) (*) 34 8 10 M51 13 6 1,218 36 25 31 30 35955 *2,220 S 2.615 H.329 M.620 5 l,980 M21 «114 20 5 114 396 1,436 440 1,690 467 1,909 1,105 2,244 1,122 2,278 1,147 2,312 30 53 33 62 34 69 64 78 75 371 341 345 14 19 18 ____ ___. _... 16,750 20,925 23,140 1 Benefits for first half of year. 2 Less than $500 thousand. Benefits for second half of year. <Less than 1.000. 8 Federal benefit only. 3 It is estimated that in 1976 3.1 million adults and children will be supported by public assistance based on disability. Nearly all of these persons are eligible for medicaid benefits. Disabled persons benefit from the exclusion from taxable income of social security disability insurance benefits, of workmen's compensation benefits, and of payments such as sick pay and private disability insurance benefits. These exclusions are estimated to reduce receipts in 1976 by $0.3 billion, $0.6 billion, and $0.3 billion respectively. The exclusion from taxable income of veterans service-connected disability compensation is an additional tax expenditure of $0.6 billion. 204 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 NEEDS-TESTED BENEFITS Mothers and dependent children.—Benefit eligibility varies considerably for this last target group for whom self-support is not assumed to be universally possible. This group includes mothers with dependent children and no male breadwinner. Eligibility is determined either by the work history of a deceased husband or through a means test. Table L-7. BENEFITS FOR MOTHERS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN AND NO HUSBAND: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Benefits (millions) 1974 actual Benefits to widows of covered employees: Social security (OAS DI) members Railroad employees-_. Federal civilian employees Uniformed service members Coal miners Public assistance (AF DC) mothers with preschool children: Cash payments Medical services Total Number of beneficiaries (thousands) Average monthly payments 1975 est. 1976 est. 1974 actual 1975 est. 1976 est. 5,087 29 5,674 32 6,200 39 3,548 12 3,542 12 3,570 12 250 188 109 135 152 46 48 349 34 395 37 415 40 559 24 563 25 553 26 52 118 59 124 63 126 5,309 5,388 5,511 10,155 10,358 10,772 30 9 33 10 34 11 1,905 1,047 2,115 2,242 1,218 1,383 8,559 9,608 10,471 1974 1975 1976 actual est. est. 279 306 208 270 50 195 234 253 Transitional low income.—The intent of income security outlays for able-bodied persons is to tide them over periods in which they cannot support themselves, until other measures correct the causes of such inability to provide self-support. The major system of unemployment insurance, constituting 90% of unemployment benefits paid in 1974, is State-administered. As a result, States vary in eligibility requirements, benefit levels, and duration of benefits. "SPECIAL ANALYSES 205 Table L-8. BENEFITS FOR TRANSITIONAL LOW INCOME AND OTHER: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT ficiaries (thousand: 0 Benefits (millions) Temporary unemployment: Unemployment insurance system Other unemployment benefits Long-term unemployment: Unemployed fathers. Mothers with all children in school _ Other income tested l In-kind benefits, low income: Food 2 Housing 2___ Medical 1976 ithly paymenli i 1974 actual 1975 est. 1976 est. 1974 actual 1975 1974 1975 1976 5.139 13,497 16,971 6,222 13,760 13,930 69 82 102 392 406 453 385 361 357 85 94 106 153 170 178 405 411 416 31 34 36 1,554 291 1,600 312 1,696 315 4.025 413 4,075 411 4,167 394 32 59 33 63 34 67 3.729 1,532 822 4.650 1,882 956 4,863 24.107 23,310 22,829 2,275 5.053 5,582 6,170 1,085 7,680 7,883 8,147 7 25 9 8 28 10 11 31 11 427 490 509 Subtotal, transitional low income 13,612 23,473 27,836 Uniformed services retirees under 65 __ Food for non-needy children _ Other Subtotal, other.._ Total . 944 4,529 5,548 6,125 528 1.493 624 1,645 92 15,633 14,904 1,570 6,549 7,816 7,781 884 995 20,162 31,289 35,617 1 Includes all AFDC related assistance to refugees and Indians. 2 Include all benefits to AFDC and UF families. Special unemployment benefit programs are provided for Federal employees and ex-servicemen, railroad employees, and unemployed workers in industries adversely affected by foreign trade. These programs are federally financed, but except for railroad retirement unemployment insurance, are State-administered. The exclusion from taxable income of unemployment insurance benefits is a tax expenditure expected to grow from $1.0 billion in 1974 to $3.8 billion in 1976. 206 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 A second set of programs providing income security benefits to able-bodied men and women are means-tested cash and in-kind programs. Additional benefits are provided to uniformed services retirees under the age of 65. NeedS'tested benefits.—Public assistance, veterans and survivors pension, medicaid, and food and housing programs provide benefits to individuals based on a test of need. In addition to that test, eligibility for cash assistance may be based on such considerations as prior military service, age, disability, or absence of a male breadwinner in a family. Table L-9. NEEDS-TESTED BENEFITS BY TARGET GROUPS AND PROGRAM Benefits (millions) 1974 actual Total, needs-tested benefits 20,759 Benefits to the aged: Public assistance Veterans and survivors pension Medicaid Other Subtotal, benefits to the aged Benefits to the disabled: Public assistance Veterans and survivors pension Medicaid Other Subtotal, benefits to the disabled Benefits to mothers: Public assistance. Medicaid Other. Subtotal, benefits to mothers _ Benefits to the unemployed and other low income: Public assistance Medicaid Food Housing Other.... Subtotal, benefits to unemployed Public assistance.. . Veterans and survivors pension Medicaid Food Housing _ _. 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 24,797 27,236 1,438 1,421 2,248 389 1,887 1,497 2,648 490 2,023 1,534 3,060 554 5,495 6,522 7,170 1,844 463 1,436 64 2,673 489 1,690 78 3,087 500 1,909 75 3,807 4,930 5,571 1,905 1,047 202 2,115 1,218 211 2,242 1,383 217 3,153 3,544 3,843 1,707 822 3,729 1,532 513 1,770 956 4,650 1,882 544 1,874 1,085 4,863 2,275 554 8,303 9,802 10,651 6,963 2,530 5,552 3,938 1,776 8,524 2,661 6,512 4,910 2,190 9,302 2,729 7,437 5,115 2,653 SPECIAL ANALYSES 207 Table L-10. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS, BY DEPARTMENT AND PROGRAM Benefit outlays (in millions of dollars) Department, agency and program Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social security: Old-age and survivors insurance Disability insurance Hospital insurance Supplementary medical insurance Supplemental security income Public assistance: Maintenance payments Medicaid Special benefits for disabled coal miners. _ Assistance to refugees Public health service officers retirement Medical care for retired commissioned officers Proposed legislation included above _ Total Veterans Administration Department of Labor: Unemployment insurance (State programs) Railroad unemployment Unemployment compensation for Federal employees and exservicemen Trade adjustment activities Employee compensation Special benefits for disabled coal miners Total Labor Department of Defense—Military: Military retirement.. Medical care for retirees Proposed legislation included above Total Defense Department of Agriculture: Food stamps _ _._ Child nutrition.. Special m i l k . . . Removal of surplus commodities Proposed legislation included above Total Agriculture 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 47,849 6,159 7,806 2,874 1,815 54,658 7,636 9,646 3,551 4,080 59,777 8,776 10,020 4,126 4,625 5,017 5,552 965 86 17 4 Total Health, Education, and Welfare Veterans Administration: Disability and dependency and indemnity compensation Veterans and survivors pensions. Life insurance (net subsidy) Other veterans benefits. 1974 actual 4,330 4,589 6,512 7,437 939 960 65 40 20 23 4 6 (—315) (—5,119) 78,144 91,442 100,579 3,985 2,530 518 135 4,627 2,661 527 185 4,596 2,729 536 200 7,167 8,000 8,061 5,139 50 13,497 50 16,971 50 350 19 272 2 350 34 327 20 405 26 396 20 5,832 14,278 17,867 5,128 433 6,281 457 6,889 490 (—574) 5,561 6,738 7,379 2,728 1,506 49 183 3,501 1,765 119 149 3,386 1,773 18 31 (—293) 4,446 5,534 5,207 208 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table L-10. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS, BY DEPARTMENT AND PROGRAM—Continued Department, agency and program Benefit outlays (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement Proposed legislation included above _ Total Civil Service Commission Railroad Retirement Board: Railroad retirement Proposed legislation included above Total Railroad Retirement Board Department of Housing and Urban Development: Public housing.. Rent supplements Interest supplements Total Housing and Urban Development Department of Transportation: Coast Guard retirement Total Transportation Department of State: Foreign Service retirement. _ Proposed legislation included above Total State Department of the Interior: General assistance to Indians Total Interior Department of Commerce: NOAA officers retirement Total Commerce Total Federal outlays Proposed legislation included above 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5.429 6,983 7,641 (—768) 5,429 6,983 7,641 2,621 2,972 3,211 ( — 116) 2,621 2,972 3,211 1,116 137 523 1.380 185 625 1,710 223 720 1,776 2,190 2,653 86 105 116 86 105 116 38 53 63 (—5) 38 53 63 45 49 49 45 49 49 2 2 2 2 2 2 111,167 138,346 152,829 (—315) (—6, 657) SPECIAL ANALYSIS M FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVITIES COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS This analysis of Federal civil rights activities comprises more than the traditional programs and policies related to civil rights enforcement. In addition to Federal activities regarding the protection of such rights as voting, public accommodations, fair housing, and equal employment opportunity in the public and private sectors, there are included Federal programs related to civil rights research and information dissemination and to the conciliation and prevention of racial disputes. Outlays to enforce these civil rights have risen from $90 million in 1970 to $395 million in 1976.1 Outlays for Civil Rights Activities M-l $ Million 400 1 The thruit of this analysis focuses on civil rights enforcement activities. Because of the conceptual difficulties inherent in developing data on minority assistance programs, including duplication and lack of reliability of some data, the discussion of such programs previously included has been deleted. However, for comparative purposes a table on minority assistance (M-4) appears at the end of this analysis. Outlays under the Emergency School Aid Act as project grants will also be included in table M-4 rather than under enforcement. 580-700 O - 75 - 14 209 210 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Programs relating to problems of the economically and socially disadvantaged, even when they include substantial minority participation, whether in manpower training, community development, or bilingual education, will not be treated as civil rights activities for they are more properly considered in other analyses in this document.2 Federal service equal opportunities.—The head of each Federal executive department and agency is charged by Executive Order 11478 and the Civil Eights Act of 1964, as amended by the Equal Employment Opportunity Act of 1972 (Public Law 92-261), with establishing and maintaining an affirmative program of equal employment opportunity within the agency. Enforcement responsibility for the Government-wide program is assigned by law and Executive order to the Civil Service Commission and special procedures are available to employees and applicants who believe they have been discriminated against in any aspect of Federal service. Under these procedures, 31,484 persons contacted equal employment opportunity counselors during 1974 for advice and assistance, and of this total, 3,435 filed formal discrimination complaints. If equal employment opportunity counseling, impartial investigation and a third-party hearing do not resolve the matter to an individual's satisfaction, the complainant may appeal to the Commission's Board of Appeals and Review or may file a civil action in U.S. District Court. Table M-1. FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY PROGRAM CATEGORY (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Civil rights enforcement:* Federal service equal employment opportunities Military services equal opportunities 2 Private sector equal employment opportunities Equal educational opportunity 3 Fair housing *_____________ Enforcement and investigation5 Research and information dissemination Indian programs Civil rights conciliation and prevention of disputes Total 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 117. 83 37. 78 73.10 11.89 13.50 24.12 9.02 .41 3.79 148.93 41.72 93.12 19.41 15.92 26.97 9.88 .89 3. 74 167.19 42. 66 103.02 21.14 17.64 28.52 10.01 .72 3.93 291.43 360.58 394.83 1 2 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as defined by law. Excludes outlays of $17.1 million for contract compliance, fair housing and title VI activities reported elsewhere. Includes U.S. Coast Guard. 3 Excludes outlays under the Emergency School Aid Act. Cf. table M-4. * Excludes funds for contract compliance and departmental personnel who directly administer housing and urban development programs but also concern themselves with the objectives of fair housing laws. « Includes all title VI efforts except HEW and HUD. Government policy is clear that personnel actions shall be free from discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex or national origin and that Federal agencies shall take affirmative action to 1 For example, expenditures for minority participants in manpower training programs (35%) are not included. See Special Analysis J. Federal manpower programs. SPECIAL ANALYSES 211 assure equal employment opportunity. Agency equal employment opportunity programs are documented in written national and regional plans of action which include, where appropriate, agency established goals and timetables. These plans must be submitted to the Commission annually for review and approval. Careful consideration is to be given to assure that recruitment activities reach all sources of job candidates, that present employee skills are fully utilized, that opportunities for upward mobility are provided and that managers are trained with regard to their equal employment opportunities responsibilities. Outlays for Federal civil service employment opportunity programs (including upward mobility) will increase by 42% in the 2 years, 1974 to 1976 to $167 million. Work-years will increase by 2,172 to 10,220. Although firm projections on the results of these increased efforts are difficult to make, the favorable trends observed in recent years should continue. As of November 30, 1973, over one-fifth (20.9 percent) of Federal employees were members of minority groups. Recent surveys have reflected a continuing trend of more minorities in the middle and upper grade and pay levels despite a decrease in overall Federal employment. As of October 31, 1973, women represented 40.8 percent of the nonpostal full-time Federal white-collar work force. Despite an overall decrease in general schedule employment of 11,232 positions, the number of women increased by 1,926 from October 1972 to October 1973, while the number of men decreased by 13,158. Two special emphasis programs address the specific employment problems of particular groups. Within the overall equal employment opportunity program, the Federal women's program addresses the particular employment needs and problems of women, and the Spanish-speaking program assists in providing opportunities for Spanish-speaking citizens. The successful placement of many additional women and Spanish-speaking Americans in middle-management and executive-level Federal jobs during a period of employment contraction is largely attributable to special efforts under these programs. Finally, under the Intergovernmental Personnel Act of 1970, the Civil Service Commission provides financial and technical assistance in personnel management and employee training and in monitoring merit employment requirements applicable to many State and local grant-in-aid programs. Major emphasis is placed on equal employment activity. Under this program in 1974, the Commission has: • Awarded grants for 23 State and local government projects relating to equal employment opportunity. • Aided more than 500 State and local agencies administering grants-in-aid in the development of affirmative action plans. • Made over 4,000 contracts geared to removing artificial employment barriers and improving personnel systems at State and local levels through expenditures for equal employment opportunity related technical assistance. 212 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Increase in Minorities by Grades 1 November 1969-November 1973 Percent Change Percent Change 100- GS 1-4 "General Schedule 5-8 9~U 12-13 14-15 16-18 nd biroilar Orodc Oroupings. In 1976, the Commission will continue to award grants to help advance equal employment opportunity. Military services equal opportunities.—Each of the military services has placed equal opportunity officers and their staffs at various levels within individual command structures. They guide, monitor, and evaluate all matters pertaining to the equal opportunity and treatment of military personnel and their dependents and are responsible for and participate in race relations councils, seminars, and training. In 1976, outlays for providing equal opportunities for members of the Armed Services, excluding fair housing expenditures, will increase to $42.7 million.3 4,156 work-years will be devoted to these efforts. Equal opportunity for servicewomen has received added emphasis. As the number of women in the military services continues to rise at a rapid rate, greater utilization is being made of their talents. The Army has now opened 90% of their enlisted occupational specialties to women as opposed to 30% previously. All services are now training women as noncombat pilots. The Air Force has increased the skill ladders open to women from 43% to 98%. All services have opened their ROTC programs to women and five women serve at general/flag officer rank in the military services. 3 Military services equal opportunities includes the U.S. Coast Guard. SPECIAL ANALYSES 213 The Defense Race Relations Institute, located at Patrick Air Force Base, Fla., trains officers and enlisted men for service with their units as instructors. The Institute has graduated over 3,322 instructors from all the services in the past 4 years. Training and education in race relations are included in service schools ranging from basic training to the senior service colleges. Special programs are also designed to increase minority participation in skilled jobs, examine current testing procedures for cultural bias, and to develop race relations handbooks. Recruiting efforts will continue to insure balanced minority participation in the military services. All services have increased the percentage of minority recruiters. An example of success is the service academies where the enrollment of 465 minority cadets in the 1974 class is double the number entering in 1971. Presently there are over 1,103 minority cadets enrolled in the academies. Significant progress has also been made in procuring minority officers from reserve officer training programs and officer candidate training schools and in the detailing of qualified minority officers to attend senior and intermediate level professional military schools. At the present time, there are 18 minority general officers on active duty. Prior to 1971, only four minority officers had ever achieved general/flag officer rank in the entire history of the Armed Services. Minority personnel have also been increasing their proportion in the top enlisted ranks, and currently, the top enlisted position in the Air Force is held by a minority. Private sector opportunities.—Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as amended, prohibits discrimination in employment on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, or national origin by either employers, unions, or employment agencies. Executive Order 11246, as amended, requires Federal and federally assisted Government contractors and subcontractors to provide similar opportunities. Outlays for the agencies charged with these responsibilities, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the Justice Department, the Department of4 Labor and 16 cooperating agencies, will total $103 million in 1976. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission will spend $60.3 million in 1976, an increase of 12%, to carry out its responsibilities relating to nondiscrimination in employment in the private sector and State and local government. An estimated 77,700 charge resolutions are projected through the combined efforts of the Commission and State and local agencies to which, under law, charges are deferred. The Commission will more than double to $8 million the amount of its grants to these State and local agencies which administer fair employment practices statutes in order to bring such agencies into a full partnership in handling an increasing volume of charges. As a result of these actions, an estimated 40,000 persons will receive $70 million in cash benefits in 1976. Enforcement of title VII, as amended, is also the responsibility of the Justice Department which, through conciliation and litigation, seeks to secure compliance with the law where it finds patterns or practices of employment discrimination in State and local governments and their agencies. In 1976, the Justice Department plans to Excludes amounts for nondiscrimination against the aged and handicapped. 214 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Activities $ Millions Completed Investisations 45,000 7542,000 ; Completed InvesHsations EEOC Expenditures $60.3 50- 30,000 25 -15,000 1971 J972 1973 1974 1975* 1976' Fiscal Years i Include* investigations to be done by EEOC as welt as bit deferral ajencie spend $1.3 million to help eliminate such discrimination in the State and local public sectors. Executive Order 11246 prohibits the practice of discrimination in Federal contracts, subcontracts, and on federally assisted construction projects. Nondiscrimination assurances cover construction as well as industrial work forces and require affirmative action on the part of recipients of Federal contract moneys to promote the equal employment of minorities and women. In 1976, the Federal agencies responsible for implementing this order will spend $39.3 million. Approximately 500,000 new hires and promotions will be effected by such affirmative action goals. Seventy "citywide" plans for affirmative action in the construction industry, including the well-known "Philadelphia plan," have been put into effect. In addition, the Office of Federal Contract Compliance, Department of Labor, is continuing to develop proposals for statewide construction contracts. The goal for 1976 is to insure that all areas with substantial minority populations are covered under either a voluntary or imposed affirmative action plan. Other highlights include: • The Federal Communications Commission, an independent regulatory agency, will spend $0.4 million in 1976 to investigate complaints of employment discrimination by broadcasters, cable 215 SPECIAL ANALYSES Federal Contract Compliance Activities M-4 $ Millions 60 Hires and Promotions, (Thousands) 600 Hires and Promotions' 500,000 Contract Compliance Expenditures 50 500 $39.3 40- -400 300 30- 20 - 200 $13.3 -J00 10- 197f 1972 1973 J974 1975 Fiscal Years 3 From affirmative action plans ifl non-consfructic 1976 Estimate ntraefs. Data prior to 1972 i litable. television systems, and common carriers, to review licensees' annual reports of employment patterns, and to enforce the rules of the Commission relating to equal employment opportunity. • The Department of Labor will spend $3.9 million in administering the Equal Pay Act. In 1976, as a result of these efforts, $9.1 million in wages illegally withheld will be received by 44,000 employees, primarily women. An additional $13.7 million in annual future income will also be forthcoming. Equal education opportunity.—The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare and the Justice Department have primary responsibility for assuring equal educational opportunity in public schools for all citizens and a nondiscriminatory policy relating to faculty and administrators. In 1976, educational programs in support of these goals will spend $21.1 million, excluding capital assistance to predominately black colleges (developing institutions and land-grant colleges) and the emergency school assistance program.5 To enforce Federal laws requiring equal education opportunities for public school students, the Justice Department will spend $1.8 million in the coming year. Although substantial compliance with the constitutional mandate has been achieved in recent years, the Justice Department continues its enforcement supervision through 6 Excludes amounts for nondiscrimination against the handicapped. 216 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 235 cases involving 540 schools systems.6 Currently, the Federal Government is also taking steps to provide equal educational opportunity for Spanish-speaking and other non-English-speaking pupils by insuring that special education programs and bilingual and bicultural education programs are provided. Title IX of the Higher Education Amendments of 1972 charged the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare with the responsibility of insuring nondiscrimination on the basis of sex in some 2,700 institutions of higher education throughout the United States. In 1976, the Department expects to conduct 100 onsite compliance reviews and to investigate 80 complaints. Fair housing.—Title VIII of the Civil Rights Act of 1968 makes unlawful any discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex or national origin in the sale, rental, or financing of housing. Executive agencies are required to cooperate with the lead agency in this area, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), in the administration of title VIII, and to conduct their programs and activities in a manner that affirmatively furthers fair housing opportunities for all Americans. Expenditures for the administration of fair housing programs in executive departments and agencies will increase by 11% in 1976 to $17.6 million. • HUD will spend $5.2 million to strengthen its efforts under title VIII and enable it to reduce the backlog in the reactive complaint system. • The Department of Justice will spend $1.9 million in the development, litigation, and negotiation of cases to enforce title VIII. • The Department of Defense will spend $5.3 million to assure the rights of all military personnel to available off-base housing. • The General Services Administration (GSA) will spend $1 million to assure that federally constructed, purchase-contract or leased space is located where there is an adequate supply of low- and moderate-income housing available on a nondiscriminatory basis. • In cooperation with the fair housing goal of the executive branch, the independent Federal financial regulatory agencies will continue to monitor the institutions subject to their supervision to assure that their real estate lending services are available without regard to race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. • The Housing and Community Development Act, approved in 1974, prohibits sex discrimination in connection with the sale, rental or financing of housing. SPECIAL ANALYSES 217 • The Equal Credit Opportunity provision (title V of Public Law 93-495), approved in 1974, makes it unlawful for any creditor to discriminate against any applicant on the basis of sex or marital status with respect to any aspect of credit transactions, including those relating to real estate. HUD will continue its efforts to insure that the administration of all Federal housing-related programs further the fair housing objectives of title VIII. Such efforts include oversight of affirmative marketing and advertising guidelines and policies for project selection of federally assisted programs; a national advertising campaign and expanded affirmative action programs aimed at all elements of the public; and community wide hearings and reviews of title VIII compliance. Table M-2. FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Civil rights enforcement:* Complaint conciliation Complaint investigation Compliance review and monitoring Legal enforcement Program direction, research and information dissemination Technical assistance Upward mobility Total 1 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 18.44 33.58 58.07 21.00 86.87 29.46 44.00 21.14 38.48 77.15 23.48 106.19 33.10 61.04 22.94 42.60 83.82 24.57 112. 23 38.44 70.24 291.43 360.58 394.83 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as denned by law. The Justice Department has brought or participated in 214 suits against some 600 defendants in 33 States and the District of Columbia. At least 182 court orders have been entered, most of them requiring comprehensive affirmative relief to correct the effects of past housing discrimination and to maximize equal opportunity in the future. The Department has also obtained supplemental relief or brought contempt of court proceedings in 15 cases where defendants had failed to implement provisions of earlier orders. Voluntary compliance agreements have been concluded with the real estate boards of major cities, and negotiations with the National Association of Realtors resulted in the publication of an industry-wide guide which promotes equal housing opportunity. The Defense Department expects to continue its successful implementation of the open off-base housing program. In 1967, less than 20% of the multiunit rental facilities surveyed were indicated as available to all military personnel on an equal opportunity basis. Today, 98% of surveyed facilities are pledged to a policy of nondiscrimination. Recently, Defense revised its proced res to take stronger measures against landlords practicing race and sex discriminat'or In 1976, Defense will devote 548 years of effort to furthering this record of achievement. 218 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 GSA, under Executive Order 11512, will expend 46 work-years on matters relating to the positive impact that selection of sites for Federal facilities can have on the social and economic conditions in the area. GSA and HUD are continuing to develop affirmative action plans where necessary to insure that an adequate supply of low- and moderate-income housing: will be available on a nondiscriminatory basis. For agencies like Energy Kesearch and Development Administration which procure space and facilities on their own, efforts similar to the above will be carried out. Civil rights enforcement.—Primary responsibility for the enforcement of civil rights laws and constitutional guarantees is vested in the Justice Department. This includes the development, negotiation, conciliation, and litigation of cases and complaints. In 1976, the Justice Department and other agencies with enforcement responsibilities will spend $28.5 million to carry out the above mandate. In addition to activities related to employment discrimination, fair housing and public education, which are treated elsewhere in this analysis, the efforts of the Department will strengthen its coordination of Federal agencies' enforcement activities under title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act which prohibits discrimination in federally assisted programs and under the general revenue sharing legislation. Increased emphasis by the Department should result in a continuing improvement of title VI enforcement. The Department will also continue its enforcement activities directed toward compliance with laws which prohibit the interference with basic civil rights, including the right to vote and the use of public accommodations and facilities. In 1976, the Justice Department will continue to allocate resources as necessary for investigation and litigation to protect the civil rights of citizens who may have suffered violence or threats of violence including special protections for migrant workers, prison inmates, and, along with the Interior Department, American Indians. Attention will also continue to be directed to civil litigation involving injustices and substandard conditions in correctional institutions, mental hospitals, and juvenile homes. The voting rights program continues its efforts to secure to all citizens the right to register and vote without discrimination or intimidation. In addition, all proposed changes affecting voting under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 are submitted to the Attorney General and must be investigated, reviewed, and adjudicated in the Department of Justice. 3,847 such changes have been received since 1970. In support of the voting rights program, the Civil Service Commission provides personnel to prepare and maintain lists of eligible voters and to observe election procedures in States or other political subdivisions designated by the Attorney General. The Commission receives complaints, hears and determines challenges, and assists in the defense of challenge cases filed in the U.S. circuit courts of appeals. In 1976, the Commission will spend $0.6 million to assist in this responsibility. Civil rights research and information dissemination.—Ex- penditures grouped in this category include all moneys for civil rights activities not counted elsewhere as well as Federal research and SPECIAL ANALYSES 219 information dissemination efforts. Outlays in this area will total $10 million in 1976. • The Commission on Civil Rights will spend $7.74 million in 1976 to carry on its factfmding function relating to denials of equal protection under the law. • The Women's Bureau, Department of Labor, will devote $2 million to questions and issues relating to the utilization of womanpower and the economic, legal, and civil status of women. The Bureau works with appropriate State, national, international, local, and union organizations, and concerned individuals in achieving its goals and also provides support services to the Citizens Advisory Council on the Status of Women. • The women's action program, Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), will spend $0.2 million in 1976 to analyze the effects of HEW programs on women and the changes required to help attain equality for women. Civil rights conciliation and prevention of disputes.—The Community Relations Service of the Department of Justice was established by title X of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to provide assistance to communities in resolving difficulties arising from discriminatory practices which disrupt peaceful relations among citizens. It also seeks to reduce and prevent racial tensions. The Service actively cooperates with appropriate Federal, State, and local agencies, private and public groups, and individuals on methods and programs for the peaceful resolution of racial disputes. In 1976, the Service will spend $3.9 million to reduce racial tensions. This will permit an expansion in crisis resolution and State liaison activities. State liaison representatives will be working with State and local officials in developing their own crisis contingency plans to enable communities to eventually provide community relations services for themselves. 220 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table M-3. FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Civil rights enforcement:1 Department of Agriculture_ Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation _ Treasury Department 2 Civil Service Commission Commission on Civil Rights Energy Research and Development Administration 3 Environmental Protection Agency Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Federal Communications Commission _ General Services Administration 4 Community Services Administration Postal Service 5 Small Business Administration _ _ Veterans Administration Other independent agencies Total.. _ 1 2 _ _ 9.96 .84 51.54 13.66 8.45 1.54 18.65 8.23 * 2.94 .76 118.05 6.06 1.31 .61 42.10 .25 3.51 .39 1975 estimate 1976 estimate .73 .77 1.08 10.17 .85 57.61 23.93 10.69 2.17 20.13 10.11 * 3.55 1.06 149.45 7.15 1.59 1.01 53.68 .36 4.43 .34 __ .79 .86 .65 10.43 .80 59.34 25.82 11.91 2.15 20.91 10.81 * 3.80 1.25 167.81 7.74 2.27 1.25 60.26 .44 5.11 .59 _ .83 1.23 .08 291.43 360.58 394.83 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as defined by law. All Federal service equal employment opportunity outlays, including upward mobility, are reported under the lead agency, Civil Service Commission. 3 The Atomic Energy Commission expired Jan. 19, 1975. The majority of its resources were transferred to this new agency upon its expiration. * The Office of Economic Opportunity was replaced by the Community Services Administration on January 4, 1975. 5 Postal Service outlays appear in the Annexed Budget. * Less than $10 thousand. SPECIAL ANALYSES 221 Table M-4. FEDERAL MINORITY ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS MINORITY ASSISTANCE OUTLAYS BY PROGRAM CATEGORY 1 (in millions of dollars) 1974 actual Indian programs 2 Minority business enterprise 3 Emergency School Aid Act Minority Higher Education Assistance 4 Total... 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1,112.10 1,338.60 1,403.00 972.46 1,062.35 1,059.35 202,92 206,96 143.64 66.49 93.10 111.06 2,353.97 2,701.01 2,717.05 1 Minority assistance programs broaden opportunities for economic participation and selfitermination. MINORITY ASSISTANCE OUTLAYS BY AGENCY i (in millions of dollars) 1974 Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Labor Environmental Protection Agency Energy Research and Development Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Small Business Administration2 Veterans Administration Other agencies Total.... 13.53 82.53 79.37 510.05 53. 31 852.07 13.02 7.00 7. 50 7.89 663.03 11.90 52.77 1975 18.08 97.37 83.37 673.12 37.15 908.32 41.16 9.00 8.15 8.50 751.47 13.00 52.32 2,353.97 2,701.01 1976 19.41 88.57 87.47 650.55 34. 32 945.05 41.51 10.00 9. 10 10.00 753.85 14.50 52.72 2,717.05 1 Minority assistance programs broaden opportunities for economic participation and self-determination and include Indian programs. Loans, surety bonds, guarantees and 8(a) contracts are included at 2their obligated values. All Federal procurement from minorities through sec. 8(a) of the Small Business Act is reported under the lead agency. Small Business Administration. SPECIAL ANALYSIS N FEDERAL PROGRAMS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME Reduction of crime is a high Federal priority. Sixteen Federal agencies and commissions participate in providing a national response to the crime problem. Federal programs are not only concerned with enforcing statutes and administering criminal justice but are also designed to increase understanding of the causes of criminal behavior, prevent the commission of criminal acts, rehabilitate offenders, and reform Federal criminal laws. The objective is to reverse the trend of rising crime so that the losses in economic and human resources associated with crime are substantially reduced, and the fear of criminal abuse or exploitation in our communities is alleviated. The Federal crime reduction program complements activities of State and local governments which have the widest responsibilities for law enforcement and administration of justice. Federal assistance in the form of grants-in-aid, training, and technical assistance contributes to the effectiveness of State and local crime reduction programs. ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PAST YEAR There were numerous accomplishments in the area of crime reduction during the past year. Among the most significant developments were: • Strike force indictments increased from 548 in 1973 to 800 in 1974, and in convictions from 930 to 1,544. • Major gains in cooperative international enforcement efforts to stop drug traffic before it reaches the United States. • Enactment of speedy trial legislation requiring, after an initial period, trial of accused persons within 100 days after arrest of persons accused of Federal violations. • Located 37,891 fugitives during 1974, the highest number in the history of the FBI. • Losses to the public resulting from the passage of counterfeit currency declined by 27% from 1973 and 49% from the record level in 1972. • Completion of an LEAA victimization survey on the amount of crime committed in the United States. 1976 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS Federal outlays for the reduction of crime will total $3.0 billion in 1976, as compared with $2.8 billion in 1975 and $2.4 billion in 1974. It is estimated that expenditures for this purpose by all levels of government—Federal, State, and local—will exceed $16.5 billion in 1976. Of the $3.0 billion in Federal expenditures, $1.2 billion or 4 1 % will be used to assist State and local governments to improve their criminal justice systems. The Department of Justice will continue its extensive Federal crime reduction program with expenditure of $1.9 billion in 1976. The Treasury Department has the second largest Federal program which is budgeted for $374 million in 1976. 222 SPECIAL ANAI 223 SES Table N-1. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME AGENCY * BY (in thousands of dollars) Outlays Agency 1974 actual The Judiciary Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce _ Department of Defense—Civil __ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice. Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury General Services Administration Veterans Administration. Other independent agencies _ _ _ _. _ Total Federal outlays. 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 79,145 92,360 107,219 7,869 9,826 10,425 1,837 2,137 2,342 5,941 6,807 7,164 197,620 259,195 254, 797 28,109 15,680 12,190 46,465 48,631 52,874 1,569,740 1,816,046 1,938,613 6,135 7,900 7,900 5,162 26,800 37,800 37,788 30,435 32,741 282,221 343,367 373,516 72,123 68,062 70,289 90,551 111,279 118.413 427 458 527 2,431,133 2,838,983 3,026,810 1 Does not include Department of Defense—Military and $36.1 million of outlays for the U.S. Postal Service which are included in the Annexed Budget for 1976. Application of resources to the reduction of illicit drug traffic will be further expanded throughout the full range of Federal criminal justice activities. The Drug Enforcement Administration (which consolidated Federal drug enforcement activities previously scattered in four separate agencies) is continuing development and implementation of a comprehensive Federal enforcement strategy. A new El Paso Intelligence Center (which will support the Customs Service, Immigration and Naturalization Service, and the DEA) is expected to be fully operational in 1976. Emphasis will be on improving interdepartmental cooperation at the Federal level and increasing effectiveness of State and local enforcement officers in drug investigations. A summary of expenditures related to enforcing drug laws is contained in table N-2. Table N-2. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR DRUG ENFORCEMENT l (in millions of dollars) Outlays Agency Department of Agriculture Department of Defense—Civil Department of Justice Department of State _ Department of the Treasury Total Federal outlays 1 .. _ _ 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1.6 0.3 139.7 5.2 52.7 1.5 0.4 187.9 26.8 64.4 1.5 0.4 203.3 37.8 62.1 199.5 281.0 305.1 Does not include Department of Defense—Military and U.S. Postal Service. 224 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAMS BY ACTIVITY Budget outlays included in this special analysis represent all Federal programs related 1to crime reduction except expenditures of the Department of Defense. The analysis covers estimated costs of the Judiciary related to criminal adjudication. Even though such programs may indirectly reduce crime, the analysis excludes general social programs, unless they are clearly within the context of crime reduction or prevention, such as vocational training of prisoners or treatment and rehabilitation of narcotic addicts. This analysis does not include cost of background investigations for employment, administrative inspections, or investigations of a regulatory nature which might in rare cases result in the application of criminal sanctions. Where activities involve both criminal and civil proceedings, such as operation of Federal courts, an allocation of outlays to the crime-related function has been estimated. The narrative is not intended to be all-inclusive, but rather highlights new initiatives contained in the 1976 budget and portrays the wide range of activities and agencies involved in the Federal crime reduction program. Table N-3. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND SELECTED ACTIVITY1 (in thousands of dollars) Outlays Major program and selected activity 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Crime research and statistics: Statistics on crime, criminals, and criminal justice system Research on criminal behavior and sociology of crime Program total Reform of criminal laws 31,509 64, 661 37,988 72,401 37,342 72,881 96.170 110,389 110,223 3,292 3,907 3,879 26,158 146, 771 168,992 42,507 27,620 223, 351 169,951 35,682 18,964 227,113 177,509 32,255 384,428 456,604 455,841 676,992 51,285 183,449 781,236 56,453 221,599 839,177 63,063 234,287 911,726 1,059,288 1,136,527 Services for prevention of crime: Public education on law observance, enforcement, and crime prevention _ _ Special programs for the rehabilitation of narcotic addicts. _ _ Prevention and control of juvenile delinquency Development of other community crime prevention services. _ Program total.... Criminal law enforcement: Investigations into violations of Federal criminal law Federal protection of individuals and facilities Assistance to State and local governments for enforcement. _ Program total 1 Defense Department outlays for crime reduction are not included in this analysis. However, a summary of Defense Department outlays for law enforcement are estimated as follows (in thousands of dollars): Department of Army Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Total. Department of Defense --- 1974 1975 1976 312,874 11,633 430,824 327,169 11,662 433,102 341,726 9,248 451,406 755,331 771,933 802,380 SPECIAL ANALYSES 225 Table N-3. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND SELECTED ACTIVITY 1 (in thousands of dollars) —Continued Major program and selected activity Law enforcement support: Criminal intelligence and information systems Education and training of enforcement officers Laboratories and criminalistics International programs in support of domestic law enforcement Program total Administration of criminal justice: Conduct of Federal criminal prosecutions Operation and support of Federal court systems Assistance to States and localities for improved administration of justice Program total Rehabilitation of offenders: Operation of Federal correctional institutions Federal probation, parole, and community treatment ___ Federal inmate education and training Federal inmate medical treatment Other programs supporting Federal corrections Assistance to States and localities for improved correctional programs Program total Planning and coordination of crime reduction programs Total Federal outlays 1 Outlays 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 43, 850 219,139 32,864 58, 195 248,655 42, 792 59, 305 260, 111 47,046 13,926 41,193 56,894 309,779 390,835 423,356 63,751 98,907 78,533 115, 120 88,697 126,114 60,223 71,409 68,281 222,881 265,062 283,092 165,973 21,008 9,606 18,211 1,824 173, 772 25,394 13,010 20,362 2,101 207,474 32,597 14,021 21,903 2,649 228,990 256,583 263,701 445,612 491,222 542,345 5 7,245 61,676 71,547 2,431,133 2,838,983 3,026,810 Does not include Department of Defense—Military and U.S. Postal Service. Crime research and statistics.—Crime research and statistics encompass Federal activities designed to produce numerical data and other information concerning crime, criminals, and the criminal justice system, and to develop new techniques and methods for operation of that system. • Total Federal outlays for crime research and statistics are estimated to be $110 million in 1976. Of this amount $37.3 million will be spent for collection of quantitative data, and $72.9 million for research. • DEA will improve its ability to monitor drug abuse trends and techniques for determining sources of illegal drugs. Research will focus on developing tools and techniques to improve productivity of investigators and agents. • The Coast Guard will continue research to improve its capability for detecting and assessing the environmental impact of pollution law violations. Prototype airborne classification and quantification sensors will be constructed and tested in 1976. 580-700 O - 75 15 226 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 • The U.S. Postal Service will improve postal security and detection devices such as a letter tracing system, antitampering devices for mail sacks, and portable containers for suspect letter bombs. • The Immigration and Naturalization Service will expand research to improve its enforcement programs against illegal aliens. • Expenditures by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration to develop and evaluate new enforcement technology will total $36.3 million in 1976 while criminal statistical collection will account for $31.3 million. Reform of criminal laws.—Criminal law reform consists of efforts to improve the quality of criminal statutes and assure that they accurately reflect the values and standards of our society. • $3.9 million will be spent on criminal law reform in 1976. Approximately 90% of the 1976 expenditures will support law reform efforts in State and local governments. • In 1976, the National Commission for the Review of Federal and State Laws Relating to Wiretapping and Electronic Surveillance will be conducting its second full year of study into the impact provisions of the Omnibus Crime Control Act of 1968 authorizing the use of wiretaps for law enforcement purposes. • A special unit within the Criminal Division of the Justice Department has been created to establish procedures and coordinate use of the immunity provisions of the Organized Crime Control Act of 1970, as well as to monitor requests for immunity. • The Drug Enforcement Administration will draft and revise regulations and procedures for the Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act which wdll be applicable to individuals and industry alike. • During 1976 the Commission to Review National Policy Toward Gambling will hold public hearings and conduct studies and surveys to determine the nature, extent, and public attitude toward gambling in order to formulate recommendations on a national policy. • The Department of Justice and the Federal Judiciary will implement the provisions of recently enacted "speedy trial" legislation requiring, after a period of years for implementation, that accused criminal offenders be brought to trial within 100 days of arrest. • The Federal Election Campaign Act Amendments of 1974, created a commission which will be established to administer, obtain compliance with, and formulate policy with respect to Federal campaign financing. Prevention of crime.—Crime prevention includes efforts to limit the probability that criminal acts will be committed through means other than direct enforcement or general correctional activities. This category therefore encompasses public education, drug addict rehabilitation, juvenile delinquent programs, and projects to improve police-community relations. • An estimated $456 million will be concentrated on crime prevention programs in 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSES 227 • The bulk of the Federal drug treatment, rehabilitation, research, and prevention programs will be located in the National Institute on Drug Abuse within the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration in HEW. • In 1976, HEW will continue to support drug treatment capacity which together with State and local treatment resources should provide sufficient care for every heroin addict seeking help. • The Urban Mass Transportation Administration expects to make $1 million in grants to State and local governments in 1976 for procurement and installation of public transit equipment containing crime prevention devices. • During 1976, the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration will continue to encourage States and localities to adopt the crime prevention standards developed by the National Conference on Criminal Justice. • The Department of Justice, in cooperation with other Federal agencies, established an Advisory Committee on False Identification to analyze the problems resulting from the ready availability of falsified identification documents. • The Departments of Justice, Treasury, and Transportation will continue their combined efforts to encourage better security against cargo theft. Criminal law enforcement.—Criminal law enforcement includes activities to detect, identify, and apprehend violators of criminal laws. Federal support of State and local enforcement is also included in this category, as is investigation by Federal agents into all Federal offenses. Representative programs include policing of Federal property, special activities against organized crime and illicit drug trafficking, and grants to upgrade the effectiveness of State and local law enforcement. • Criminal law enforcement will account for $1.1 billion in outlays during 1976, including $238 million in support of State and local enforcement programs. • DEA will continue enforcement actions to suppress illicit drug distribution on a national and worldwide basis, directing a majority of its resources toward arrest and prosecution of the highest level drug traffickers. • The Justice Department's Antitrust Division will step up its efforts to reduce public and private interference with the free market system, and add support to government programs regulating abuses of market power, in order to relieve artificial inflationary pressures on costs and prices. • The Department of Labor will continue its participation in the Federal program against organized crime by providing compliance officers to identify, investigate, and assist in the prosecution of labor racketeers who manipulate welfare and pension funds. • The FBI and other elements of the Department of Justice will continue placing high priority on investigating and prosecuting white collar and organized crime offenders. • In 1976, the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) will add 213 additional border patrol agents to strengthen the enforcement program. 228 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 • The INS will issue a new alien documentation card which will help reduce illegal entry into this country with forged documents. • The Securities and Exchange Commission will continue to give top priority to cases involving organized crime, particularly those instances concerning criminal infiltration into the securities industry. • In 1976, the Secret Service will add 130 Executive Protective Service officers to provide security for foreign diplomatic missions in Washington, D.C. • The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms of the Treasury Department expects to perform over 40,000 firearms traces which will assist Federal, State, and local enforcement agencies in identifying firearms used in crimes. • Customs will continue emphasizing investigations of fraudulent importations and smuggling of imports into the United States. Law enforcement support.—Law enforcement support entails activities contributing to the effectiveness of criminal law enforcement. Included are operation of criminal intelligence systems, education and training of enforcement officers, activities of forensic laboratories, and international programs supporting domestic enforcement efforts, primarily in the area of narcotics control. • Outlays of $423 million are projected for law enforcement support in 1976. Of this amount, $222 million will assist State and local enforcement by funding laboratories, training programs, and criminal intelligence networks. • The Drug Enforcement Administration will support State and local drug enforcement activities in 1976 by conducting training schools for law enforcement officers and forensic workshops for chemists. • The Veterans Administration will provide financial assistance for 21,500 policemen to pursue on-the-job training and related academic instruction during 1976. • The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms will train over 40,000 police officers representing over 2,500 police agencies in the areas of explosive and firearms investigations. • During 1976, the State Department will continue to finance training programs, advisory services, crop substitution projects, and other drug prevention activities to assist foreign governments in their efforts to disrupt the international flow of illicit narcotics. Funds are also provided to support the activities of the United Nations Fund for Drug Abuse Control. • Outlays of $20.7 million are planned in 1976 for the new Federal Law Enforcement Training Center, which will provide basic and specialized training to Federal personnel in a variety of law enforcement subjects. Administration oj criminal justice.—This category includes the preparation and prosecution of criminal cases, operation of court systems, trial of cases, provision of adequate defense, and related supporting activities. • Over $283 million will be devoted to prosecution of criminal cases and administration of criminal justice in 1976, including $68 million for assisting State and local prosecution and court sys SPECIAL ANALYSES • • • • • 229 terns. Operation of the Federal judiciary will require expenditure of $126 million in 1976 and criminal prosecutions will account for $89 million. In 1976, the U.S. Attorney's offices will add 247 additional staff members to cope with increased workload. The Commission on Revision of the Federal Appellate Court System will continue its study of the jurisdiction and procedures of the Federal Courts of Appeals. During 1976, the Drug Enforcement Administration will encourage State officials to prosecute more cases under uniform State controlled substances acts and conduct revocation proceedings before State licensing boards. The U.S. Marshals Service will enhance its witness security program with 30 additional deputies and continue upgrading the service of Federal warrants by deputy marshals. The fees and expenses of witnesses appearing on behalf of the Federal Government to provide factual information or expert testimony will require expenditure of $15.6 million in 1976. Rehabilitation of offenders.—These programs encompass Government custody and rehabilitation of criminal offenders, including supervision and operation of correctional institutions, inmate and offender treatment and training programs, probation and parole services, and other supportive functions. • Expenditure of $542 million will support rehabilitation of offenders in 1976 as compared with $491 million in 1975 and $446 million in 1974. • In 1976, LEAA will allocate $264 million to States and localities for non-Federal correctional activities. • During 1976, $253 million will be spent on correctional programs of the Bureau of Prisons, with continued emphasis on developing a balanced system of community and institutional facilities for the reintegration of offenders into society. • The U.S. Board of Parole with regionalized operations and new decisionmaking criteria will ensure greater equity, consistency, and speed in the parole process in 1975 and 1976. • The President established through Executive order the Presidential Clemency Board to review certain convictions of persons under the Military Selective Service Act and the Uniform Code of Military Justice and to make recommendations for Executive clemency. Planning and coordination.—Included in this category are outlays supporting State and local criminal justice planning, as well as the coordination of Federal enforcement activities nationally and with respect to international enforcement efforts. • Approximately $72 million will be spent on planning and coordination of crime reduction programs in 1976, consisting primarily of $70.6 million in expenditures by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration to encourage State and local governments to plan and evaluate their criminal justice activities. • In 1976, the State Department will continue to coordinate interagency efforts to assist foreign governments and international organizations in carrying out their drug control programs. 230 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table N-4. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND AGENCY1 (in thousands of dollars) Outlays Major program and agency 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Crime research and statistics: The Judiciary Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Justice Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Program total Reform of criminal laws: Department of Justice Services for prevention of crime: Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health. Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Transportation _ Veterans Administration. _ _ Program total. 814 16 3,995 87.196 3,309 840 1,049 18 4,595 101,257 2,630 840 3,711 20 4,267 98,154 3,231 840 96,170 110,389 110,223 3,292 3,907 3,879 147 136,956 23,424 1,251 196,862 100 25.688 169 198, 326 13, 160 1,325 216,176 200 27,248 176 200,460 10,350 1,325 214.457 1,000 28,073 384,428 456,604 455,841 7,869 4,487 43,060 545,598 2,400 34.267 273,618 427 9,826 5,207 44,594 645,351 2,900 27,486 323,466 458 10,425 5,481 48,321 698,412 2,900 28,382 342,079 527 Criminal law enforcement: Department of Agriculture.... Department of Defense—Civil__ Department of the Interior Department of Justice.. Department of Labor Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Other independent agencies _ _ _. Program total 911.726 1,059,288 1,136,527 143 4,015 503 153,260 5,162 110 7,763 72,123 64,863 1,837 164 172 4,000 _ 732 883 185,731 190,807 26,800 37,800 117 126 19,061 30,597 68,062 70,289 84,031 90,340 2,137 2,342 309,779 390,835 Law enforcement support: Department of Defense—Civil _ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of the Interior._ __ Department of Justice Department of State Department of Transportation _ Department of the Treasury .._ General Services Administration. Veterans Administration Department of Commerce Program total. See footnote at end of table. __ 423,356 SPECIAL ANALYSES 231 Table N-4. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME MAJOR PROGRAM AND AGENCY 1 (in thousands of dollars)—Continued BY Outlays Major program and agency Administration of criminal justice: The Judiciary Department of Defense—Civil Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Transportation Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Program total Rehabilitation of offenders: The Judiciary Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Program total Planning and coordination of crime reduction programs: Department of Justice Total Federal outlays 1 1974 1975 1976 66,254 84 1,382 155,009 2 150 76,770 99 1,711 186,480 2 82,905 103 2,076 198,006 2 222,881 265,062 283,092 12,077 1,064 52,504 4,685 269 371,278 3,735 14,541 1,150 52,274 2,520 269 415,468 5,000 20,603 1,212 50,070 1,840 269 463,351 5,000 445,612 491,222 542,345 57,245 61,676 71,547 2,431,133 2,838,983 3,026,810 Does not include Department of Defense—Military and U.S. Postal Service. 232 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table N-5. SELECTED CRIME REDUCTION DATA 1972 Federal outlays for crime reduction: Federal crime reduction outlays assisting States and localities _ Federal crime reduction outlays for reduction of Federal crimes Total Federal outlays for reduction of crime (dollars in thousands) 1973 $674,785 $966,863 $1,023,906 $1,131,608 $1,326,831 $1,407,227 $1,352,755 $1,806,393 $2,431,133 Federal personnel: Full-time Federal criminal investigators l__ 17,507 19,117 U.S. attorneys and assistant attorneys (man-years on criminal workload) ____ 763 722 2 Attorneys—criminal division (man-years) 253 273 U.S. district court judgeships 401 400 State and local crimes: 3 Serious crimes recorded (UCR—table 2) 8,173,400 8,638,400 Violent crimes recorded ( U C R - t a b l e 2) 828,820 869,470 Rate of serious crimes per 100,000 inhabitants (UCR— table 2) _ ..... 3,925 4,116 Rate of violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants (UCR— table 2) 398 414 Percent index crimes cleared by arrest (UCR—table 15 in 1972, table 14 in 1973) 22.0 21.2 Percent found guilty of persons charged by police (UCR— table 18 in 1972 and 1 9 7 3 ) . . . . 65.2 63.7 Federal investigations: FBI, investigative matters received 824,252 774,579 Immigration and Naturalization Service (investigations completed) 30,245 30,940 Postal Service, criminal caseload 510,220 462,671 IRS. cases closed 8,518 8,500 U.S. Customs Service, cases closed 40,076 40,276 Secret Service, cases closed « 158,871 124,389 Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms, cases closed.. 6,964 5,403 Disposition of Federal criminal matters: Investigative matters presented for prosecutive decision— prosecution declined 119,064 93,926 Federal criminal cases commenced 6 47,043 40,367 Federal criminal cases terminated 6 46,090 41,389 Federal criminal cases pending 6 25,438 24,416 Federal criminal defendants c o n v i c t e d . . . . . 37,220 34,983 High echelon organized crime figures convicted 60 69 Corrections: Average Federal jail population 5,160 5,870 Average Federal prison population 21,329 22,294 Court commitments to Federal institutions 16,832 17,540 Average Federal prison sentences (months) _ 47.9 51.0 Persons under supervision of Federal probation system (end of year) .... 49,023 54,346 Federal paroles granted... 6,174 6,339 Warrants issued for violation of conditions of release from prison.... ._ 1,906 1,635 Executive clemency petitions granted _ ___ 255 207 1 2 3 CSC jobs classified in series 1811 as of April 30. Includes internal security functions transferred into the Criminal Division. From FBI uniform crime report. < Not available. 5 Reflects closing out case backlog where no further investigation was warranted. • Excludes transfers. 1974 19,130 775 324 400 (*) (*) (*) («) («) (4) 745,840 32,101 319,293 7,215 21,981 128,947 5,455 86,301 43,319 44,255 27,644 34,699 69 5,877 23,332 16,789 (4) 59,534 5,540 1,591 195 PART 3 SPECIALIZED ASPECTS AND VIEWS OF FEDERAL PROGRAMS 233 INTRODUCTION Part S discusses trends and developments in selected areas of Government activity—aid to State and local governments, research and development, and environmental quality. It groups three special analyses, those designated O through Q. Special Analysis 0 summarizes Federal grants to State and local governments as well as loans and indirect assistance. It traces the development of Federal aids over time and relates them to the finances of both the Federal Government and State and local governments. This analysis also provides a profile of Federal grants by region, and that portion benefiting metropolitan areas. Special Analysis P identifies Federal programs for the conduct of research and development, and for facilities related to such activities. Special Analysis Q identifies Federal funding for selected environmental activities, including pollution control and abatement, environmental protection and enhancement, sewer and water programs, and understanding, describing, and predicting the environment. 234 SPECIAL ANALYSIS O FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS In 1976, Federal aid to State and local governments is expected to total $56.0 billion, including $381 million in net loan outlays. This represents an increase of $3 billion over 1975, and an average annual increase of 15% since 1970. {Billions 60 Re venue Sharing 50- 40Total 30- 20- 1966 1967 1968 Fiscal Yean 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 (976 Estimate These totals exclude many other Federal benefits to State and local governments which are not direct grants, shared revenues, or loans. Among those excluded are: • Federal programs such as the $5.5 billion supplemental security income program for the aged, blind, and disabled, which provide Federal resources for programs formerly financed by State and local governments; • The exemption of interest on State and local securities from Federal income taxes; • The deducibility of State and local taxes from Federal taxable income, which results in a portion of these taxes being offset by a reduction in Federal taxes; and • Federal technical assistance, publications, and similar services, which provide indirect savings to these governments. 235 236 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FEDERAL A I D PROGRAM The Federal aid program for 1976 will continue recent efforts to simplify government operations and transfer planning and management functions to State and local governments. These efforts are highlighted by a proposal that will soon be transmitted to the Congress to renew general revenue sharing through 1982. As of January 6, 1975, $17.3 billion has been distributed to State and local governments under this program, helping them to provide needed services, to reduce debt burdens, and to reduce taxes. The proposed renewal would continue the authorization and appropriation of specific annual amounts, increasing to $7.2 billion for 1982. Additional payments will be made to State and local governments to compensate them for increased energy costs resulting from proposed energy taxes. These "energy tax equalization payments" will be distributed according to the general revenue sharing formula. The payments will start in the last quarter of 1975, and will total $500 million in 1975 and $2 billion in 1976. The Administration will propose major new highway grant legislation, and will focus Federal highway efforts on completing vital segments of the Interstate Highway System. Simultaneously, the consolidation of other highway programs would provide additional flexibility to State and local governments in the use of these funds, and would allow them to preempt over $1 billion in existing Federal motor fuel taxes starting in 1978. The 1976 program level for highways is estimated to reach $5.4 billion, including $3 billion for the Interstate System. Under the new temporary employment assistance program, $1 billion has been appropriated to help State and local governments provide about 100,000 temporary public service jobs in 1975 and 1976. The primary recipients of these jobs will be those who have exhausted or did not have unemployment insurance benefit eligibility. The Budget includes estimates for a number of new, flexible Federal aid programs that recently have been enacted. Grants-in-aid provided through the community development bloc grant program, the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act, the National Mass Transportation Assistance Act of 1974, a new Economic Development Administration program, and the Education Amendments of 1974 provide State and local officials substantially increased flexibility within broad Federal guidelines. In addition, some older programs, such as law enforcement assistance and waste water treatment grants have increased the discretion of State and local governments in the use of funds by delegating planning, monitoring, and enforcement functions to them. SPECIAL ANALYSES 237 Table 0-1. FEDERAL-AID EXPENDITURES BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Agency Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Military Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency Veterans Administration Community Services Administration District of Columbia Legal Services Corporation Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Other Energy tax equalization payments Total expenditures for Federal grants 1974 actual 5, 112 260 64 19, 138 3, 147 452 637 2,651 5,108 6,302 1,623 26 639 187 170 522 46,040 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 6,279 277 73 20,579 3, 372 540 698 4,117 5,592 6,505 2,429 53 462 230 42 185 717 500 5,874 263 83 20,259 4,678 605 754 4,161 6,239 6,637 2,478 66 347 254 65 182 687 2,000 52,649 55,632 In total, Federal aid will finance about 22% of State and local expenditures in 1976. As can be seen in table O-l, about 36% of this aid is administered by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES Though grants from the National Government technically predate the Constitution, they were very small until the end of the 19th century, and did not become a truly significant factor in government expenditure until after World War II. In 1950, Federal grants to State and local governments totaled $2 billion, and by 1960 they had risen to only $7 billion. In 1974, they reached $46.1 billion, an average annual increase of 14% since 1960. This may be compared to an average annual growth of 8% for total Federal outlays over the same period. The growth of Federal aid outlays slowed significantly in 1974. To a large extent, this slowdown was illusory. The introduction of general revenue sharing in 1973 included the payment in that year of retroactive benefits for 1972, thus inflating the 1973 totals as compared to 1974. Additionally, the supplemental security income program that began on January 1, 1974, replaced a Federal grant program with a program operated by the Social Security Administration. This shift, which resulted in direct Federal payments to individuals, reduces the nominal amount of Federal grants without reducing (and often increasing) benefits. The functional composition of the grant program has changed significantly over the years, as shown in table O-2. The most dramatic growth has occurred in the health area, which has increased from 4% of Federal aid in 1961 to an estimated 16% in 1976. This increase is primarily attributable to the medicaid program. The most striking recent changes are the addition of general revenue sharing, the increases in outlays for environmental protection, and the relative decline in grants for transportation programs. 238 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0-2. PERCENTAGE FUNCTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL AIDS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Natural resources, environment, and energy Agriculture Commerce and transportation Community and regional developmentEducation, manpower, and social services Health. . . . . Income security Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance . . . Other Total 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1 4 19 * 1 10 20 1 2 5 37 3 2 3 31 9 3 2 17 10 6 1 12 8 10 8 56 13 4 48 10 4 36 17 10 26 21 15 30 19 16 22 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 n 100 100 100 100 100 100 1976 3 *LCM than 0.5%. The structure of the grant system has also changed significantly in recent years. Grant programs were originally set up to meet specific categories of national needs, and Federal controls were imposed to insure that funds were used to satisfy those needs. As the grant system grew, other programs were established to meet needs as perceived by other sponsors. While these "categorical" grant programs were often beneficial, the uncoordinated nature of the resulting system created many problems, including: • Excessive Federal administrative requirements. • Rigid funding and organizational arrangements that were unresponsive to changes in priorities. • Unnecessary Federal limitations on the authority of State and local elected officials. • The creation of competitive and duplicative State and local governmental institutions. In the late 1960's and early 1970's, two forces merged to provide a strong impetus for reform. First, many State and local governments were experiencing fiscal difficulties, as the demand for higher levels of public services escalated. The Federal Government responded with large increases in aid through categorical grant programs. While this relieved much of the fiscal pressure on these governments, it aggravated the problems inherent in the categorical grant structure. Simultaneously, a strong interest developed in better defining the appropriate functional responsibilities of different levels of government and in distributing decisionmaking authority accordingly. The Federal Government began an effort to differentiate those programs that clearly require direct national involvement from those which can be better administered at the State and local level. As a result, during recent years the expansion of grant expenditures has been accompanied by continued reform efforts. These efforts have borne fruit, resulting in significant improvements in grant programs and their delivery mechanisms. SPECIAL ANALYSES 239 REFORM OF THE GRANT SYSTEM Efforts to reform the grant system have focused on four basic approaches: • Decentralization of program management functions to Federal field officials; • Simplification of Federal grant administrative requirements; • Maximum possible sharing of planning and management functions with State and local governments; and • Consolidation of overlapping Federal grant programs. The decentralization of Federal management functions has focused on standardizing the Federal field structure into a system of 10 administrative regions, and the creation of a Federal Regional Council in each regional headquarters city. This enables State and local officials to work more closely with the Federal authorities who sit on the councils, and facilitates coordination among Federal agencies at the regional level. Most Federal assistance agencies now not only share common geographic boundaries, they also have developed common services arrangements, procedures for multiagency funding of applications, and improved techniques for responding to the needs of States and localities on an interagency basis. The simplification of Federal administrative requirements for grants has been carried out through issuance of Government-wide standards and selected reductions in grant application and reporting requirements. The recently enacted Joint Funding Simplification Act of 1974 should further this process. Joint funding, which until recently had been carried out on a trial basis, simplifies funding and other procedures in cases where a grantee receives assistance from two or more different agencies or programs within one agency. The budget includes a number of programs aimed at increasing the abilities of State and local governments to plan and manage federally assisted activities. Almost $600 million was spent by the Federal Government in 1974 toward strengthening the program management capability of State and local governments. This was done primarily through grants-in-aid, but also through technology transfer and technical assistance. A 16% increase in this effort is projected for 1976. In addition, new efforts will be made to coordinate the various agency programs into a more coherent overall Federal strategy for strengthening policy management capability. A significant amount of already enacted legislation consolidates programs and delegates decisionmaking authority and responsibility to recipients. General revenue sharing provides a broad foundation for these efforts. Now in its third year, this program distributes Federal funds to virtually all State and local governments with minimal restrictions. The proposed renewal would extend the program through 1982 in essentially its current form. The constraint on a jurisdiction's maximum per capita allocation would be eased, and present reporting and public participation provisions would be improved. 240 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0-3. GENERAL REVENUE SHARING (in billions of dollars) Fiscal year Current iprogram Entitlements enacted 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Transition quarter 1977 1978 2.6 5.6 6.1 6.2 6.4 1.7 1.7 Total 30.2 Outlays estimates Fiscal year Proposed re Entitlements Outlays 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.3 1.7 3.3 .1 1977 1978 1979 1980 _ _ 1931 1982 1983 4.8 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 3.2 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.2 1.6 30.2 Total 39.4 39.4 The community development grant program begins its first full year of operation in 1976. This program replaces seven categorical grant and loan programs, including urban renewal and model cities. The bloc grant approach permits local governments greater flexibility in responding to unique local needs and priorities. Funds are distributed among local governments in both urban and rural areas according to a formula based on objective measures of need. To insure a smooth transition, localities that received disproportionate assistance under the seven phased-out programs are eligible to receive allocations in excess of their formula share for a limited period under a declining "hold-harmless" provision. Recent amendments to the Economic Development Administration (EDA) authorizing legislation will allow the States more flexibility in using a portion of their EDA funds. Money for this new program will be allocated according to a formula based on previous levels of funding, and may be used by the States to supplement grants to local governments or to initiate eligible new projects. The Rural Development Act of 1972, is being administered in a manner supportive of the plans and priorities of State and local governments. The recommended 1976 level of funding for business and industrial development loans is $300 million. In addition, funding levels of $600 million in loans and $160 million in grants for water, sewer, and other community facilities are proposed. These funds are allocated among the States on the basis of rural population. The Comprehensive Employment and Training Act oj 1973 (CETA) is a major advance toward the goal of permitting substantial local discretion in manpower program design and resource allocation decisions. Under the former manpower programs (Manpower Development and Training Act and title I of the Economic Opportunity Act), most activity was conducted through some 10,000 direct Federal contracts. In comparison, CETA provides for grants to about 400 States and localities to use in accord with their own analysis of area program needs. Funds are distributed through a formula based on prior-year funding, unemployment level, and number of low-income individuals. This approach offers at least three key advantages: SPECIAL ANALYSES 241 (1) local elected officials will be accountable to their citizens for program choice and performance; (2) broad national priorities can be applied in a meaningful way to local situations; and (3) stable local manpower programs will permit a better tracking of their effectiveness. The National Mass Transportation Assistance Act of 1974 changes the basic concept of Federal support for mass transit. The act provides contract authority of $11.8 billion to be available through 1980. Of this total, $7.8 billion is earmarked for existing Federal assistance programs. The remaining $4.0 billion will be distributed by formula among State and local governments to divide as they see fit between capital expenditures and operating subsidies. The formula is based on each urbanized area's relative population and density. Funds can be used to cover up to 80% of project construction costs. When used for transit operating subsidies, Federal funds must be matched by equal subsidies from recipient governments. The Education Amendments of 1974 consolidate several programs into two groups. A new educational support and innovation program consolidates four categorical programs (supplementary educational centers, dropout prevention, health and nutrition, and aid to State departments of education), giving recipients more discretion in the allocation of resources among the programs. Similarly, the libraries and instructional resources program consolidates the school library program, the guidance and instructional resources program, and the equipment program of the National Defense Education Act. The authorization provides that these consolidations will take place only if funds for these programs are appropriated 1 year in advance and at required levels. In 1976, the nonhighway programs of the Appalachian Regional Commission will continue to undergo changes, providing greater flexibility for the Commission in meeting the diverse problems and needs of A.ppalachia. The new approach allows the Appalachian States to determine for themselves the best mix of investments for meeting the changing needs of the region. State involvement will be increasingly emphasized in the planning, budgeting and program management activities of the Commission. Law enforcement assistance grants and waste water treatment grants both involve State and local officials in planning and monitoring functions. Grant outlays for LEAA will rise 8% to $754 million in 1976. Waste water treatment grants will leach $2.5 billion, about the same level as 1975. T H E IMPACT OF FEDERAL AID Federal aid has become an increasingly important factor in the finances of all levels of Government. In 1976, Federal grants will constitute 1.6% of total Federal outlays, or 22% of budget outlays for domestic civil purposes. In 1965, grants were only 9% of the budget. Federal aid has also increased as a percentage of State and local governmental expenditures, growing from 15% to 22% during the same period. 242 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0-4. IMPACT OF FEDERAL GRANT OUTLAYS ON GOVERNMENTAL EXPENDITURES Federal aid Fiscal year 1960 1965 1970 _._. 1971. 1972 1973._ 1974 1975 estimate. 1976 estimate. 1 3 Amounts — (millions) $7,040 10,904 23,954 29,849 35,940 43,963 46,040 52,649 55.632 As a percent of— Total Federal outlays 7.6 9.2 12.2 14.1 15.5 17.8 17.2 16.8 15.9 Domestic Federal outlays 1 State-local expenditures 3 15.9 16.6 21.1 22.7 23.8 26.1 24.7 23.6 22.3 14.7 15.4 19.1 21.1 23.0 25.2 23.6 23.3 22.2 Defined for this purpose as excluding national defense and international programs. As defined in the National Income Accounts. The influence of Federal aid is substantially greater than the figures alone indicate. Many grant programs are intended to encourage innovation by State and local governments by testing a new concept's validity. Other programs restrict States by requiring them to establish and maintain specific agencies, though many of these provisions are being phased out. Most importantly, many programs require the recipient government to match Federal aid funds with its own resources. In the last few years, State and local governments have allocated about 10% of their own revenue to match Federal grant moneys. Broad-based formula grants generally reduce or eliminate matching requirements, thereby freeing resources to be used according to State and local priorities. Federal aid is also provided through two types of tax expenditures that aid State and local governments. First, the exclusion of interest on State and local securities from Federal taxable income permits these jurisdictions to borrow at reduced interest rates. The exclusion will reduce Federal receipts by approximately $4.8 billion in 1976, and will subsidize State and local borrowing by a somewhat smaller amount. Second, the, deducibility of most State and local taxes permits taxpayers to offset part of these taxes with a reduced Federal income tax liability. Hence, a State or locality can raise a dollar of revenue with significantly less than a dollar net cost to its taxpayers. The receipts foregone by the Federal government are estimated to be $0.8 billion for gasoline taxes, $5.3 billion for property taxes on owner-occupied homes, and $10.0 billion for other non-business State and local taxes. SPECIAL ANALYSES 243 (There is no tax expenditure associated with taxes that businesses pay to States and localities, because these are normal business expenses.) Federal aid on a per capita basis varies widely among regions, and even among States in the same region. The thinly populated Western States traditionally rank high because of highway construction grants and shared revenues from Federal land holdings. For example, the Rocky Mountain States have the lowest regional population density, extensive Federal land holdings, and, until recently, the highest per capita aid. Table 0-5. PER CAPITA DISTRIBUTION OF GRANTS, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS Federal region i I—Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island II—New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands III—Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, District of Columbia. _ _ IV—Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida V—Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota VI—Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas VII—Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska VIII-Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming IX—Arizona, California, Nevada, Hawaii, other territories X—Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Alaska United States Percent change 1969-74 1969 1971 1973 1974 $102 $102 103 $144 159 $202 235 $231 254 126 147 94 147 220 223 137 101 142 200 203 101 77 105 172 184 139 111 88 145 117 209 168 206 161 86 83 136 178 251 242 78 116 117 168 172 228 267 226 258 95 121 99 141 212 215 117 1 These are not the same regions as those used for National Income Account computations. Source: "Federal Aid to States," Department of the Treasury; and "Governmental Finances in 1973-74," Bureau of the Census. These reports provide additional information concerning State distribution of Federal grants. This effect has diminished in recent years, however, as human resources programs have grown relative to physical resources programs. Further, the addition of general revenue sharing has tended to equalize per capita figures among the regions. Region VIII, which had per capita grants 37% above the national average in 1969, now has grants only 13% over the average, while region V has risen from 22% below the average to only 14% below. Region II has experienced the most rapid growth during this period. 244 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0-6. THE IMPACT OF FEDERAL GRANTS ON SMSAs (in millions of dollars) 1974 National defense Natural resources, environment, and energy: Environmental Protection Agency Other Agriculture: Distribution of surplus commodities Other Commerce and transportation: Highways Airports Urban mass transportation Washington metropolitan area transit authority Other Community and regional development: Appalachia Community development grants Model cities Urban renewal Community Services Administration _' Other Education, manpower, and social services: Elementary and secondary education Vocational education Rehabilitation services Social services Comprehensive manpower assistance Emergency employment assistance Unemployment trust fund Other Health: Health services Alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health Health resources Medical assistance Other Income security: Commodity distribution Food and nutrition service Public assistance Housing payments Unemployment trust fund Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing Other Other functions: Law enforcement assistance Other Energy tax equalization payments Total aids to urban areas 32 1975 37 1976 41 1,217 192 140 208 1,822 220 1,858 235 96 131 2 138 2,589 194 346 170 8 2,624 232 714 185 12 2,783 288 994 182 12 112 443 904 502 449 130 225 265 898 369 464 130 1,300 218 898 281 468 1,356 501 868 1,103 852 597 310 1,220 1,536 555 1,051 1.467 1,832 58 373 1,475 1,782 568 1,076 1,182 1,738 371 266 419 3,567 53 446 2,395 4,019 837 366 419 432 502 4,039 54 287 3,322 3,507 980 564 4,274 301 4,323 429 369 402 435 4.387 67 24 3,397 3,458 1,078 517 4,410 456 560 17 612 65 350 662 88 1,400 32,214 36,666 356 1,285 38,974 In addition, an important qualitative shift has been taking place in Federal grants—a greater share is going to urban areas. The American population is becoming increasingly urban; today, over 70% of the population lives in the 265 standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA's). About $39 billion or 70% of Federal grants will be spent in or directly affect these SMSA's in 1976. This is an increase of $19 billion, or 94%, over the level provided to urban areas in 1969. SPECIAL ANALYSES 245 FEDERAL STATISTICS ON GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS The Federal Government produces three major statistical series for Federal aid to State and local governments—the national income accounts grants-in-aid series,1 the Federal payments (Census) series, and the budget series exhibited in this special analysis. The budget series is designed to provide a comprehensive picture of Federal aid, focusing on programs that are financed but not directly administered by the Federal Government. The Census and NIA series are parts of broader statistical concepts encompassing the entire economy, and as a consequence they define Federal grants somewhat more narrowly than the budget series. They both omit the following items which the budget series includes: • Federal aid to the governments of Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; • Payments in-kind, primarily commodities purchased by the Department of Agriculture and donated to the school lunch and other nutrition programs; • Food stamp payments, which are similar in nature to public assistance grants but are administered somewhat differently; and • Payments to private, nonprofit entities (such as manpower training programs %and nonprofit hospitals) which operate under State auspices or within a State plan. Table 0-7. THREE MEASURES OF FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, 1965-73 (in billions of dollars) 1965 1968 Budget (Special 0) Less principal exclusions: Agricultural commodities Food stamps Geographical exclusions Plus payments for research All other, net 10.9 18.6 -.4 __* -.3 .8 * -.5 -.2 -.3 1.1 -.7 Federal payments (Census) Less low-rent public housing All other, net 11.1 11.1 -.2 .1 18.1 Grants-in-aid (national income accounts) 10.9 1971 29.8 6 1972 35.9 1973 44.0 -1." 5 -.6 -.5 -1.9 -2.1 4 i! 4 -i. 2 -.4 1.1 -.5 -.6 1.2 -.3 27. 5 >5 —. 2 33.6 -.3 * 41.7 -1.0 17.8 26.8 32.9 -.7 * -.5 40.2 * Lets than $50 million. The only major group of payments which the budget definition of grants excludes but Census and the NIA series include is payments for research conducted by public universities. The budget series excludes these payments because they are considered to be largely a purchase of services for the Federal Government rather than aid for State programs. Since both Census and the NIA series focus on cash payments to State and local governments, they count these as grants. The one major outlay included in the budget and Census definitions but ex1 Special Analysis A of this volume contains additional information on the NIA grant series. 246 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 eluded from the NIA series is payments for low-rent public housing, which the NIA count as purchases by the Federal Government rather than as grants. There are other minor differences in the coverage of the three series. The series also define functions such as health and welfare along different lines. Table 0-7 illustrates the differences among these series, and demonstrates the growing divergence between the budget series and the other two. This divergence is due primarily to the growth of the food stamp program, which increased from $248 million in 1969 to $2.8 billion in 1974. Table 0 - 8 . FEDERAL AID TO STATE A N D LOCAL GOVERNMENTS » (outlays in millions of dollars) Agency and program National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Civil defense shelters andfinancialassistance Construction of Army National Guard centers Other.. Functional code 051 051 054 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 32 33 40 33 * 43 40 64 73 83 7 7 9 7 7 9 301 302 302 306 97 8 26 18 88 10 31 19 77 11 31 17 302 301 301 303 303 303 306 305 304 301 301 106 1 7 151 54 5 161 6 8 150 70 10 196 4 7 160 72 11 5 1.623 31 3 8 2,429 37 5 7 2.478 50 3 2,137 3,031 3,123 30 83 162 234 2 35 96 178 160 2 36 106 185 3 511 470 330 Total, national defense International affairs and finance: East-West Cultura 1 and Technical Interchange Center. 153 Total, international affairs and finance Natural resources, environment, and energy: Department of Agriculture: Watershed planning and flood prevention Resource conservation and development Forest Service Department of Commerce: NOAA Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management (shared revenue) Bureau of Reclamation Office of Water Research and Technology. Land and water conservation fund Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service Bureau of Mines _ Energy Research and Development Administration Environmental Protection Agency Tennessee Valley Authority (shared revenue) Water Resources Council _ Total, natural resources, environment, and energy. • Agriculture: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Cooperative State Research Service Extension Service Commodity Credit Corporation Agricultural Marketing Service Total, agriculture See footnotes at end of table. 352 352 352 351 352 SPECIAL ANALYSES 247 Table 0-8. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS i - C o n . (outlays in millions of dollars) ' Agency and program Functional code Commerce and transportation: Department of Agriculture: Housing 401 Department of Commerce: Minority business development 403 State marine schools 406 Department of Housing and Urban Development: Urban transportation 404 Department of Transportation: Grants-in-aid for natural gas pipeline safety 407 State boatiiig safety assistance 406 Grants-in-aid for airports 405 Highway beautification 404 Highway trust fund 404 Other highway aid 404 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. __ 404 Federal Railroad Administration 404 Urban Mass Transportation Administration 404 Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority 404 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 6 12 7 3 * 3 * 5 * 1 1 1 1 4 243 23 4.361 35 93 2 6 360 348 170 2 6 290 48 4,395 49 83 2 717 185 4,682 47 84 15 999 182 5,288 5,794 6,435 452 453 452 286 107 333 220 1 333 451 452 34 * 50 6 66 452 452 202 38 217 37 203 38 99 466 80 136 1,205 225 107 279 75 140 1,197 1.300 60 229 44 4 41 4 1,197 239 3 3 1 622 1 457 1 347 3,324 3,390 4,204 1,665 10 529 202 43 569 68 137 1,887 23 2,189 23 170 121 55 646 39 108 Total, commerce and transportation 44 Community and Regional development: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian development Disaster relief Public works acceleration Department of Agriculture: Rural water and waste disposal grants Rural development grants Department of Commerce: Economic Development Administration Regional Action Planning Commissions Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community development bloc grants Comprehensive planning grants _._ Model cities. Open space land Basic water and sewer Urban renewal -Liquidating programs Other... Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs.. Joint Federal-State Land Use Planning Commission for Alaska. Community Services Administration 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 451 452 452 451 Total, community and regional development 175 1 10 Education, manpower, and social services: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Elementary and secondary education Indian education School assistance in federally affected areas Emergency school aid _ _ Education for the handicapped._ Occupational, vocational, and adult education Higher education Library resources See footnotes at end of table. 501 501 501 501 501 501 502 503 587 205 38 631 40 153 248 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0 - 8 . FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS >—Con. (outlays in millions of dollars) Agency and program Functional code Education, manpower, and social services—Continued Department of Health, Education, and Welfare—Con. Educational development 503 Innovative and experimental programs _ 503 Assistant Secretary for Education 502 Work incentives 504 Social services 506 Assistant Secretary for Human Development: Child Development _ 501 Rehabilitation services__ _ _ _ _ 506 Allied Services __ 506 Department of the Interior: Indian education programs. 501 Department of Labor: Comprehensive manpower assistance 504 Community service employment for older Americans _ 50 4 Temporary employment assistance 504 Emergency employment assistance 504 Grants for employment services 504 Unemployment trust fund (manpower training) 504 Corporation for Public Broadcasting 503 National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities.. 503 Community Services Administration _ 501 Total, income security See footnotes at end of table* 1976 estimate 36 6 12 296 1,576 130 323 1,471 297 1,956 409 831 436 1,066 25 28 1,137 2.318 598 60 374 48 8 17 2.443 10 350 58 64 450 62 17 4 8,721 10,945 10,404 553 6 6 1 551 553 530 51 598 41 527 52 551 552 551 302 558 5.818 491 669 6,589 457 580 7,156 553 1 1 1 553 26 37 43 7,292 8,431 8,818 604 604 604 604 743 2.779 793 479 3,583 1,431 39 3,535 1,644 6 604 601 5.423 * 4,733 4.667 604 603 1,116 458 1,307 705 1.648 646 11,311 12,237 12,185 Total, health Income security: Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Marketing Service (commodity distribution) Food stamps Child nutrition programs and special milk Food donations Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Public assistance _ Special benefits for disabled coal miners Department of Housing and Urban Development (housing payments). Department of Labor (unemployment insurance) 1975 estimate 197 Total, education, manpower, and social services. _ Health: Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services Administration Center for Disease Control Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Health Resources Administration Medicaid Department of the Interior: Mining Enforcement and Safety Administration ._. _ Department of Labor: Occupational Safety and Health Administration 1974 actual 10 465 1.072 5 28 650 74 429 70 15 SPECIAL ANALYSES 249 Table 0-8. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS L-Con. (outlays in millions of dollars) Agency and program Veterans benefits and services: Veterans Administration: Aid to State homes.. Grants for construction of State nursing homes Administrative expenses Health manpower Grants for State cemetaries _ Functional code 703 703 703 703 705 Total, veterans benefits and services _ Law enforcement and justice: Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance.. 754 Equal Employment Opportunity Commission 751 Legal Services Corporation 754 Total, law enforcement and justice General government: Department of the Interior: Administration of Territories _ 806 Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands __ _ 806 General Services Administration 804 Civil Service Commission (intergovernmental personnel assistance) 806 Total, general government Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance: General revenue sharing _ Federal payment to the District of Columbia (shared revenue) _ _ Forest Service (shared revenue) Department of Defense: Civil (shared revenue) Department of the Interior: internal revenue collections for the Virgin Islands (shared revenue) Department of the Treasury: tax collections for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (shared revenue) Federal Power Commission (shared revenue) Total, revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance 851 1974 actual 1975 estimate 21 4 ] 25 5 1 22 25 6 1 30 5 26 53 66 637 2 698 2 42 754 4 65 639 742 823 17 63 1 16 70 15 92 14 14 15 95 100 122 6,106 6,176 6,301 254 119 3 852 852 852 187 115 3 852 17 )7 18 852 852 196 * 329 * 336 * 6,624 6,876 7,030 500 2,000 52,649 55,632 Allowance for energy tax equilization payments Total, grants and shared revenues 1976 estimate 46,040 230 121 4 "'Lessthan $500 thousand. Grants unless otherwise specified. Excludes loans, which are shown separately in table O-9. 1 250 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table 0-9. FEDERAL LOANS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS (in millions of dollars) Disbursements Agency and program by function 1974 &CvU&l Net outlays 1975 C8L1IX)&LC 1976 £ft*rl fflft TC 1974 ftCtllftl 1975 1976 Cff^l mfttC C111 Wkft%• C Natural resources, environment, and energy: Department of the Interior: Reclamation loans 14.0 11.1 14.3 11.6 8.4 11.1 Total natural resources, environment and energy 14.0 11.1 14.3 11.6 8.4 11.1 Commerce and transportation: Department of Transportation: Right-of-way revolving fund.... Urban mass transportation 23.0 —.8 25.9 —.2 41.0 —.2 23.0 —.8 25.9 —.2 41.0 —.2 Total commerce and transportation _ 22.2 25.7 40.8 22.2 25.7 40.8 5.8 8.0 4.8 5.8 8.0 4.8 -3.0 843.4 24.0 -2.2 900.5 25.0 19.9 600.0 -8.3 -83.0 15.4 -6.6 50.0 16.0 11.4 50.0 152.0 .8 205.4 .8 247.4 .8 152.0 .8 205.4 .8 247.4 .8 1.023.0 1,137.6 872.9 82.6 273.6 314.4 .9 3.2 * -1.9 .9 -1.6 .9 -2.0 -21.5 -28.2 -35.8 Community and regional development: Department of Commerce: Economic development assistance Department of Housing and Urban Development: Revolving fund (liquidating programs; Urban renewal Public facility loans District of Columbia: Loans for capital outlay Advances to stadium sinking fund. Total community and regional development Education, manpower, and social services: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Higher education Higher education facilities Department of Housing and Urban Development: College housing Total education, manpower, and social services Health: Medical facilities _ Total health Income security: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing Total income security See footnotes at end of table. * 3.3 .9 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.1 -23.4 -28.9 -36.9 25.7 66.3 55.0 —2.0 13.3 10.0 25.7 66.3 55.0 —2.0 13.3 10.0 622.7 675.0 650.0 21.0 622.7 675.0 650.0 21.0 SPECIAL ANALYSES 251 Table 0-9. FEDERAL LOANS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS—Con. (in millions of dollars) Disbursements Agency and program by function Net outlays 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 2.6 4.0 2.1 2.6 4.0 2.1 2.6 4.0 2.1 2.6 4.0 2.1 Revenue sharing and general purpose fiscal assistance: District of Columbia: Repayable advances 8 40.0 40.0 .8 40.0 40.0 Total revenue sharing and general purposefiscalassistance.. .8 40.0 40.0 .8 40.0 40.0 General government: Administration of territories Total general government Total * Lett than $500 thousand. ._ 1974 actual 1,714.3 1,963.8 1,679.2 1974 actual 115.3 1975 1976 estimate estimate 336.1 381.5 SPECIAL ANALYSIS P FEDERAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS Total Federal obligations for conduct of research and development (R. & D.) in 1976 will increase by 15% over 1975, and outlays by 11%. Specific amounts for conduct of R. & D. and for related facilities in 1974,1975, and 1976 are shown in table P - l . Table P - 1 . TOTAL FEDERAL F U N D I N G FOR CONDUCT OF R. & D . AND RELATED FACILITIES (in billions of dollars) Obligations 1974 1975 Conduct of R. & D R. & D. facilities 17.4 .9 18.8 1.0 Total 18.3 19.8 Outlay* 1976 21.6 1.0 22.6 1974 17.5 .7 18.2 1975 1976 18.6 .9 20.7 1.0 19.4 21.7 Specific amounts for each of the broad program areas of R. & D are shown in table P-2. Table P - 2 . CONDUCT OF R. & D . B Y MAJOR PROGRAM AREA (obligations in billions of dollars) Program Conduct of R. & D: Defense^ Space 2 Civilian (other than space) Total3 1974 1975 1976 9.0 2.5 5.9 9.5 2.7 6.6 11.4 2.9 7.3 17.4 18.8 21.6 1 Includes military related programs of the Energy Research and Development Administration— transferred from the AEC. 2 Includes all NASA programs except aeronautical research, space applications (e.g., pollution monitoring, communications, earth observations), energy technology application, and technology utilization, which are classified under civilian programs. 3 These data do not reflect amounts of Federal support for private sector R. & D. through tax expenditures and allowances to defense and space contractors for independent R. & D. Tax expenditures, discussed by Special Analysis F, are estimated to have grown from about $0.60 billion to $0.65 billion during the period 1974 to 1976. Independent R. & D. allowances are estimated at approximately $0.4 billion per year during this same period. • Defense.—Defense R. & D. obligations will increase by 20% for R. & D. efforts in both strategic and tactical weapons systems. Major increases include: —further development of strategic weapons systems, including the Trident long range ballistic missile and submarine system and the B - l strategic bomber; and —development of an advanced tactical air combat fighter for the Navy and the Air Force. . 252 •SPECIAL ANALYSES 253 • Space.—The increase of $0.2 billion in R. & D. obligations for the space program in 1976 will primarily provide for the buildup in development of the manned space shuttle system which is designed to enhance operational capabilities and reduce costs of space operations in the 1980's and beyond. • Civilian.—While R. & D. funding increases in the civilian area, totaling $0.8 billion in 1976, will be directed to a number of pressing needs such as food and transportation, the largest increase is for continued orderly acceleration in the energy R. & D. effort. The 1976 direct energy R. & D. program includes $1,837 million in obligations and $1,663 million in outlays for conduct of R. & D. and related facilities. These represent increases of 10% in obligations and 36% in outlays over 1975. The program is designed to accelerate the development of technologies needed to achieve and maintain a capability to utilize more fully domestic energy resources within acceptable environmental and economic costs. The funds for energy R. & D., shown in table P-3, will support a broadly based and balanced development effort on technologies for energy supply, environmental control, and conservation. In addition to direct energy R. & D., supporting programs will provide essential basic information on materials, techniques, and fundamental processes related to energy development, and on environmental impacts of energy systems. Table P-3. FEDERAL ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (in millions of dollars) Obligations Program area Direct energy R. & D.: Fossil energy Solar and geothermal Conservation. _ Nuclear energy Environmental control Total direct Support program: Environmental effects Basic research Total support 1974 1975 Outlays 1976 1974 1975 1976 110 45 39 756 66 435 102 86 942 103 123 88 1,102 83 90 19 27 629 58 253 54 54 825 36 380 116 83 991 94 1,016 1,669 1,837 823 1,222 1,663 138 175 264 233 273 250 120 156 173 194 241 211 313 497 523 275 367 452 440 Longer term trends in Federal support of K. & D. by major program area are reflected in figure P - l . 580-700 O - 75 - 17 254 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Conduct of Research and Development—Oblations 1967 1968 Fiscal Yeats 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Estimate Since 1967, civilian R. & D. programs have received the largest increase in Federal funding, growing from obligations of $3.3 billion in 1967 to $7.3 billion in 1976, or 120%. Federal funding for defense related R. & D. has increased by $2.8 billion or 33% since 1967, while space R. & D. programs decreased by $1.8 billion or 38%. Thus, the share of the total Federal R. & D. obligations devoted to civilian programs has grown from 20% in 1967 to 34% in 1976. SPECIAL ANALYSES 255 AGENCY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS More than 99% of Federal R. & D. is supported by 14 major departments or agencies. Table P-4 summarizes obligations and outlays for conduct of R. & D. by these agencies. Table P-4. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (in millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Defense-Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Energy Research and Development Administration Health, Education, and Welfare National Science Foundation Agriculture Transportation Interior Environmental Protection Agency Commerce Veterans Administration Nuclear Regulatory Commission Housing and Urban Development Justice All other 1974 actual Outlays 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 8,396 8,833 10,608 8,791 8,913 9,997 3,024 3,327 3,526 3,181 3,107 3,390 1.475 2,286 556 384 370 198 177 181 87 44 65 37 127 1,893 2,092 619 428 368 303 287 211 102 59 58 67 135 2,346 2.285 680 468 402 315 300 230 102 96 65 45 134 1,475 1,888 571 377 328 202 163 177 80 42 58 44 143 1,893 2,176 573 428 372 259 230 204 96 55 56 58 155 2,346 2,223 630 470 379 312 304 220 97 88 61 45 138 Total 17,408 18,780 21,602 17,522 18,575 20,698 Total, conduct of research Total, conduct of development.. 7,163 7,545 10,245 11,235 8,256 13,346 6,783 10,739 7,435 11,140 8,188 12,511 Table P-5 separately aggregates obligations and outlays by major agency for the construction and renovation of facilities used in the conduct of R. & D. and for acquisition of major items of equipment. Table P-5. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES BY MAJOR DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES (in millions of dollars) Department or agency Energy Research and Development Administration Defense-Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation Health, Education, and Welfare. Transportation... Agriculture _ Commerce.. Environmental Protection Agency All other. Total facilities Obligations 1974 actual Outlays 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 485 169 468 228 503 225 350 165 427 183 463 238 98 10 46 13 9 12 1 17 154 17 47 25 16 10 6 30 105 35 30 14 10 6 2 28 75 14 33 35 6 12 11 16 100 14 47 28 12 9 12 27 108 27 45 24 9 4 5 31 860 1,001 959 717 862 955 256 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 There is no major change in the overall funding of R. & D. facilities between 1975 and 1976. However, large single facilities or major equipment acquisitions may cause funding fluctuations from year to year for individual agencies. This is true, for example, of the relatively large drop in obligations for NASA in 1976 following the initiation of several large space shuttle R. & D. facilities in 1975 and the relatively major increase for the National Science Foundation in 1976 which includes the one-time procurement of aircraft for the U.S. Antarctic research program. Facilities and equipment amounts shown in table P-5 for the Department of Defense and NASA are somewhat understated because some items to be funded through R. & D. contracts with industry and other non-Federal institutions are not included. Such items would be included in "conduct of R. & D." in table P-4. The content and major thrusts of the agency programs are described below. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY Department of Defense obligations in 1976 for research and development, including construction of R. & D. facilities and the cost of associated military personnel, will increase by $1,772 million over the 1975 level, reaching a total of $10,833 million. Obligations for the conduct of research will increase by $232 million to a level of $2,011 million, and obligations for development programs will increase by $1,543 million to a level of $8,596 million. The increased funding levels will offset the effects of inflation on development costs of major weapons systems and will permit real increase in R. & D. effort in both strategic and tactical weapons programs. In the strategic area, major increases are provided for the continued development of the Trident long range submarine and missile system and- the B-l strategic bomber. Efforts will also be increased on ballistic missile warhead and accuracy improvements and on options for possible future deployment of a new intercontinental ballistic missile system for silo or mobile basing. The development of a strategic cruise missile system which can be launched from either air or subsurface platforms will continue. In the strategic defensive area, the site defense of Minuteman program will be reoriented to emphasize subsystem development and antiballastic missile technology efforts will be strengthened to guard against technological surprise and to provide future deployment options if they are needed. In the tactical forces area a major increase is planned for development of an advanced air combat fighter for the Navy and the Air Force. This program is designed to provide a low cost aircraft system to complement the sophisticated and costly aircraft now being deployed by our tactical air forces. Increased efforts are also programed by the Army for attack and utility helicopters, low altitude air defense missile systems, and counterartillery radars. The Navy will continue to emphasize antisubmarine warfare and fleet air defense missile systems and will increase funding for development of antiradiation missiles. The Air Force will increase development efforts on devices and systems to enhance its capability to penetrate enemy air defenses. Increases are also provided for research and technology that are necessary for improved systems in the future and for rapid response to changing threats. Lasers, electron device technology, and night SPECIAL ANALYSES 257 vision technology are areas receiving increased emphasis. Efforts will also be directed toward achieving life cycle cost savings in the development of future military systems. Table P-6. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (obligations in millions of dollars) Purpose and budget title Conduct of R. & D.: Research, development, test, and evaluation: Military sciences Aircraft and related equipment Missiles and related equipment Military astronautics and related equipment Ships, small craft, and related equipment Ordnance, combat vehicles, and related equipment Other equipment Programwide management and support Other appropriations Total conduct of R. & D. Total conduct of research, included above Total conduct of development, included above R. & D. facilities Total 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 418 1,660 2,071 585 648 418 1,612 584 401 424 1,621 2,126 524 668 469 1,852 719 430 476 2,114 2,477 622 664 564 2,186 1,072 432 8,396 8,833 10,608 1,780 6,616 169 1,780 7,053 228 2,011 8,596 226 8,565 9,061 10,833 NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION The 1976 NASA budget—classified entirely as research and development provides for continuing programs in manned space flight, space science, space applications, and aeronautics. The increase in 1976 obligations of $200 million for conduct of R. & D. reflects the orderly buildup in the development and production of prototype space shuttles designed to provide for economical manned access to space in the 1980's. In manned space flight, the next mission will be the Apollo-Soyuz test project to rendezvous and dock U.S. and U.S.S.R. spacecraft in 1975, and then the Space Shuttle is planned for initial orbital flight in 1979. Today the United States relies on expendable rockets to launch Earth orbiting and planetary spacecraft. The shuttle will reduce the cost of operations in Earth orbit in the 1980's and beyond because it is reusable and can recover satellites for repair and reuse. The space science programs emphasize the exploration of the solar system and the universe using unmanned spacecraft. Two Pioneer spacecraft recently completed the first photographic examination of the planet Jupiter. Preparations continue on two Viking unmanned orbiter/lander spacecraft scheduled for launch to Mars in 1975 and to start the search for life on that planet in July 1976. Two Mariner spacecraft are being developed for the JupiterSaturn flyby missions scheduled for launch in 1977. An orbiter and probe spacecraft are being developed to be launched to Venus in 1978 to initiate atmospheric investigation of that heavenly body. 258 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 In addition to these planetary missions, development will continue in 1976 on spacecraft to conduct high energy and ultraviolet astronomy from earth orbit. The major astronomy emphasis is on the High Energy Astronomy Observatories to be launched during 1977-79 to study X-ray, and gamma-ray sources in the Earth's galaxy and distant parts of the universe. In the space applications program, NASA is launching, early in 1975, a second Earth resources technology satellite (LANDSAT) to continue experiments on the utility of space gathered information for agricultural, geologic, and other applications. Funds also are provided in the 1976 budget for a third Earth resources technology satellite. Development is proceeding on a new generation of satellites, Tiros-N, to provide major improvements in weather forecasting, the first of which will be launched in 1977. Work is continuing on a spacecraft, Heat Capacity Mapping Mission, to be launched in 1977 to locate and map potential sources of geothermal energy. A new satellite, Nimbus-G, is being developed for launch in 1978 to demonstrate the capability of monitoring worldwide pollution from space. An additional satellite, Seasat-A, is being developed to be orbited in 1978 to monitor ocean conditions. Aeronautical research and technology will continue to emphasize ways to reduce engine noise of existing aircraft and to improve the performance, reduce the energy requirements, and mitigate undesirable environmental effects of civil and military aircraft. Work will continue on clean, quiet, efficient propulsion systems for short takeoff and landing aircraft. Table P-7. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATIONRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (in millions of dollars) Program and type of activity Conduct of R. & D.: Manned space flight Space sciences... Space applications Space and nuclear research and technology Aeronautical research and technology Energy programs.. Supporting activities Research and program management 1974 actual 1976 estimate 252 744 1,110 535 182 71 166 4 254 765 1,415 571 187 75 175 6 250 776 3,055 101 3,156 3,089 143 3,231 3,454 85 3,539 Conduct of research, obligations Conduct of development, obligations 1,458 1,566 1,622 1,705 1,717 1,810 Total conduct of R. & D., obligations R. & D. facilities, obligations 3,024 98 3,327 154 3,526 105 3,122 3,481 3,631 Total conduct of R. & D. budget plan R. & D. facilities, budget plan Total budget plan Total obligations 1,000 650 175 66 168 1975 estimate SPECIAL ANALYSES 259 Funds are also provided in the 1976 budget to develop new technology for future missions in space science and applications. The areas of emphasis include improved materials, structures, propulsion, electric power sources, communications and data handling systems. ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION Obligations of the Energy Research and Development Administration for conduct of R. & D. will increase from $1,893 million in 1975 to $2,346 in 1976, and obligations for related construction and equipment will total $503 million in 1976. The 1976 budget reflects increased emphasis on energy R. & D. while maintaining continued support for military R. & D. and other basic and applied research programs. In fossil energy development, high priority will continue to be given to coal liquefaction, gasification, and advanced combustion processes in order to produce clean and efficient energ}^ from coal. Increased funds are provided for the development of the means for producing oil and gas from shale in its underground location, thus eliminating the environmental problems associated with above-ground processing. Efforts will continue on developing technologies for enhanced recovery of oil and gas. Increases also are provided for research on basic coal science, on advanced processes for clean gaseous and liquid fuels, on materials for gasification and liquefaction processes, and on the basic properties of hydrocarbons. In solar energy, an accelerated research program will be conducted to establish the economic viability of several important solar applications such as the heating and cooling of buildings, and wind energy conversion. In geothermal energy, efforts will be continued to develop the technological base necessary to stimulate the installation of substantial electricity generating capacity by the middle of the next decade. In advanced energy systems, investigations will be conducted to improve the efficiency of electric generating plants through the use of magnetohydrodynamics and other advanced power conversion technologies. Energy conservation R. & D. will be conducted to improve the efficiency of electric power transmission, automotive power, and storage systems. End-use energy conservation studies will be initiated to develop new technologies for reducing the utilization of energy particularly in commercial and residential buildings. In nuclear energy, greater support is provided for the development of fusion power technology which has the long-range potential advantages of plentiful and inexpensive fuel, inherent safety against nuclear runaway, and minimal environmental impact. In fission reactor development, additional support is provided for the liquid metal fast breeder reactor. Work on this fission technology will be increasingly oriented to the engineering requirements necessary to achieve highly reliable, safe, and economic breeder powerplants. In addition, efforts will be initiated on advanced light water breeder applications as well as continuing R. & D. on gas cooled and molten salt breeder reactor concepts. Increased support also is provided for nuclear materials production technology to provide for process improvements to assure efficient and safe operations and to develop more economical methods 260 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 of nuclear materials production. Additional funds are provided for advanced isotope separation technology which has the potential to reduce the cost of isotopically enriched materials. In national security, funds will be increased to continue the development and testing of nuclear weapons as well as development of laser fusion technology which has both military and commercial power applications. In environmental and safety research, increased support is provided for the study of nuclear and fossil energy environmental effects, developmental work on long-term management of radioactive wastes, transportation methods and packaging of radioactive materials. Basic and applied research programs will be expanded by $205 million over 1975. Increased funding will be devoted to biomedical and environmental studies of the effects of energy production on living systems; investigations in the physical sciences; and research related to weapons technology and detection techniques. Table P-8. ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATIONRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (obligations in millions of dollars) Program and type of activity 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate Conduct of R. & D.: Fossil energy development: Coal utilization Petroleum and natural gas Oil shale Solar, geothermal, and advanced energy systems development: Solar energy Geothermal energy Advanced energy systems Physical research Conservation: Electric power transmission Fuel economy End-use conservation Nuclear energy development: Fusion power Fissionpower Naval reactor development Space nuclear systems Nuclear materials Advanced isotope separation techniques National security: Weapons activities Laserfusion Nuclear materials security Environmental and safety research: Biomedical and environmental research Waste management and transportation 70 8 3 188 17 3 289 23 8 4 6 4 253 9 14 12 281 57 28 23 313 2 3 6 10 12 17 3 53 272 154 26 45 3 85 370 167 27 51 12 120 409 186 31 65 24 412 37 4 443 41 6 495 54 11 104 12 130 20 153 25 Total conduct of R. & D 1,475 1,893 2,346 Total conduct of research, included above Total conduct of development, included above 470 1,005 594 1,299 799 1,547 485 468 503 1,960 2,360 2,849 Research and development facilities Total SPECIAL ANALYSES 261 The ERDA budget for construction of R. & D. facilities in 1976 provides for obligations of $503 million. Included are $103 million for initial site preparation and for long lead time hardware procurement associated with the Clinch River breeder reactor demonstration program; $81 million for continued construction of the fast flux test facility in support of the liquid metal fast breeder reactor program; $20 million for design and long-lead procurement for a clean boiler fuel demonstration plant; $10 million for continued construction of a high energy laser facility; $12 million to complete construction of the heavy ion research facilities in support of the physical research program; and $8 million to start the design and construction of a Tokamak magnetic fusion test reactor for the fusion power research and development program. HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW) obligations in 1976 for the conduct of research and development will increase by $193 million over the 1975 level, reaching a total of $2,285 million. Obligations for facilities will be $30 million in 1976. The largest share of the Department's R. & D. funds are devoted to the biomedical area where, through the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Federal Government continues to provide almost twothirds of all U.S. R. & D. funds. R. & D. obligations by NIH for 1976 will increase by $73 million from $1,548 million in 1975 to $1,621 million in 1976. The funds will support research on diseases affecting human health, including cancer, heart, and lung diseases, sickle cell anemia, aging, and venereal disease. Through other HEW components, preventive health care research is being pursued by investigation into infant and child health, new approaches to drug abuse treatment, new pharmacological agents for the treatment and prevention of addiction and on the general epidemiology of the drug problem; new ways to treat, control, and prevent alcohol abuse; basic and chemical research on the multiple causes of alcoholism; and development of new knowledge and approaches to the causes, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of mental illness. Additional health services research and development is being pursued through funding of demonstrations of health maintenance organizations, family planning, and emergency medical systems. The Office of Education is expanding innovation and development activities in the areas of vocational education and education of the handicapped. The National Institute for Education supports research in the areas of equality of education, essential skills education, education and work, dissemination of research information, and school finance, productivity, organization and management. Social services research will investigate the causes and possible means of remedying poverty, the results of various income maintenance efforts, redistributive effects of social security benefits, and the effects of various methods of health insurance financing on economic security. Table P-6 exhibits the departmental obligations and outlays by agency. 262 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Table P-9. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARERESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (in millions of dollars) Obligations Program areas and organizational units 1974 actual Conduct of R. & D.: Health, total National Institutes of Health Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration Food and Drug Administration. __ Center for Disease Control Health Resources Administration. Assistant Secretary for Health Health Services Administration. _ _ Education, total Office of Education National Institute of Education.. Welfare, total Office of Human Development Social Security Administration Office of the Secretary. .... Social and Rehabilitation Service. Total conduct of R. & D Conduct of research, included above Conduct of development, included above R. & D. facilities Total Outlays 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 2,046 1,730 836 548 1.897 1,621 1,640 1,389 1,911 1.636 1,896 1.622 155 44 41 56 9 12 130 54 76 110 70 19 19 2 123 46 39 52 14 13 120 49 70 136 62 33 29 12 122 52 45 31 15 12 255 175 80 133 62 30 29 13 127 20 36 43 11 12 161 64 97 88 64 19 2 3 135 22 41 53 10 13 137 55 82 128 68 33 19 8 128 25 44 53 13 12 193 108 84 135 63 30 32 11 2,286 2,092 2,285 1,888 2,176 2,223 1,872 1,700 1,752 1,516 1,776 1,752 414 46 392 47 533 30 372 33 400 47 472 45 2,332 2,139 2,316 1,921 2,223 2,268 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION National Science Foundation obligations for R. & D. will increase from $619 million in 1975 to $680 million in 1976. In addition, $35 million will be obligated for facilities in 1976, an increase of $18 million over 1975. A higher level of support for basic science and for research on selected domestic problems will be provided. Basic science support will be increased by 13% concentrating especially in those disciplines which relate most directly to long-term energy development and economic growth, and those which have experienced declining support in mission agencies, e.g., physical and engineering sciences. Under its national and special research programs and national research centers, the Foundation supports large national facilities such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research, four national astronomy centers, and the academic oceanographic fleet and also supports integrated research efforts such as the International Decade of Ocean Exploration and the Antarctic Research Program. These national and international programs will continue to emphasize research to improve understanding of the physical environment (earth, atmospheric, and oceanic species) as a means to improve management of the environment. SPECIAL ANALYSES 263 The $18 million in increased support for facilities will be used to procure two ski-equipped aircraft for the U.S. Antarctic program. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Obligations of the Department of Agriculture for the conduct of research and development will increase from $428 million in 1975 to $468 million in 1976. Obligations for facilities will be $10 million. The major thrust of the Department's R. & D. effort will be toward agricultural productivity: Improving the efficiency of meat animal production; developing improved forage and rangeland to reduce the use of grains in red meat production; developing additional vegetable grains in red meat production; developing additional vegetable sources of useable proteins; reducing genetic vulnerability to crop diseases; and reducing food losses during transportation, storage and marketing. Increased emphasis also will be placed on protection of soil, water and forest resources; and increasing the efficiency of energy use in the agricultural sector of the economy. Environmental research will include the further development of nonchemical means for controling agricultural pests, and the development of information required for the clearance of agricultural pesticides for use in cooperation with the Environmental Protection Agency. The Department of Agriculture, in cooperation with State and private research organizations, will develop a national system designed to improve coordination in the planning, financing, and evaluation of agricultural research. The goal of such a system will be to increase the overall efficiency and effectiveness of agricultural research. In addition, new efforts will be made to improve the ability to forecast agricultural trends to aid in production, marketing, and price setting decisions. This will include developing methods for obtaining improved data on the agricultural input, food processing and food marketing industries, an economic analysis of alternative methods of predator control, and an expanded survey of forest resources to implement the recently enacted Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act. Current information also will be obtained on the nutritional status and requirements of the American public through the implementation of a nationwide food consumption survey. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Obligations of the Department of Transportation for the conduct of research and development will be $368 million for 1975 and $402 million for 1976. Obligations for related facilities will be $14 million for 1976. Increased emphasis will be placed on socioeconomic aspects of the Nation's transportation requirements and the achievement of solutions for today's problems. More efficient utilization of existing systems is an increasingly important goal—including cost reduction, energy conservation, environmental protection, improved safety, and reduced travel times. 264 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 Urban mass transportation R. & D. will demonstrate improved higher capacity, quieter, and lower polluting transit buses and continue development of advanced rail and personal rapid transit technology. Transit service and methods demonstrations will encourage low-cost service innovations and regulatory actions to improve the use of the current urban transportation systems. Expanded support will be provided for innovative tunneling R. & D. particularly for use in urban areas. Highway research and development funding will continue to strengthen cooperative programs with State governments to increase highway and pedestrian safety, reduce the high costs of highway construction and maintenance, increase the capacity of highways and roadways through improved traffic management techniques, and to reduce undesirable environmental effects of highway structures. Highway traffic safety research will emphasize accident investigation and data analysis and will support the setting of Federal safety standards leading to improved vehicle occupant protection, the reduction of drug and alcohol related accidents, and the improvement of driver performance. Railroad research will emphasize improved rail freight and passenger services, as well as rail safety. The intermodal program to integrate highway and rail freight systems is being expanded, to demonstrate the potential reduction in time and cost of freight service from origin to destination. The tracked levitated vehicle program is being terminated in 1975, reflecting a greater emphasis on improvements to existing technology and associated infrastructure. Air transportation research provides for continued upgrading of the air traffic control system and for increasing airport and airway capacity through improved surveillance, communication and landing aid development, and increased automation of the air traffic function. The increased research funding level will permit the development of air traffic control equipment and systems needed to operate the air transportation networks of the 1980's. Also emphasized are aviation safety and aircraft noise and pollution abatement activities. Coast Guard R. & D. will continue to stress maritime pollution control systems development, all weather harbor traffic monitoring, improved aids to navigation, and programs to improve safety at sea. including commercial vessel and recreational boating safety. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Obligations for the Department of the Interior for conduct of research and development will show a net increase from $303 million in 1975 to $315 million in 1976. The Department's R. & D. activities derive from a broad range of responsibilities for encouraging wise development of the Nation's energy and nonenergy mineral, water, land, and recreation resources, and for managing those resources on the public lands in the public interest. Research programs are conducted to provide an accurate appraisal of the Nation's mineral resources, including new or improved methods, and techniques and instruments for mineral exploration on land on submerged continental margins. Basic information is developed on SPECIAL ANALYSES 265 geologic principles and processes relating to terrain conditions and causes of earthquakes. An extensive program of investigation of new technologies for surface and underground mining is designed to lead to improvements in productivity and in mine health and safety and to reduction in the environmental impact of mining. Research on extraction, processing, and use of nonenergy minerals will help to assure an adequate supply of raw materials to meet expanding national needs. Land use problems, the quality of the physical environment, and the efficient allocation and conservation of scarce water and waterrelated resources will be studied. Special attention will be accorded studies directed toward better understanding of basic principles of hydrology necessary for the appraisal and evaluation of the Nation's water resources, including the effects of underground waste storage, for improving the quantity and quality of water for municipal and industrial uses, and for augmenting water supply by precipitation management, water salvage and improved water methods. Research is conducted to improve the management of habitat on Federal lands to protect fish and wildlife resources. Studies also support the direct management of fisheries and migratory birds. These studies include population dynamics, bird banding, fish disease prevention and control, and restoration of endangered species. Many of these programs have at least an ancillary objective of environmental protection. Energy related research of the Bureau of Land Management and the Fish and Wildlife Service, for example, includes extensive environmental baseline data collection and monitoring activities as a necessary background to understanding potential impacts of energy development on the environment, and as a basis for managing resource programs on the public lands so as to minimize environmental impact. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Department of Commerce obligations for the conduct of research and development will increase by $19 million in 1976, from $211 million in 1975 to $230 million in 1976. Obligations for related facilities will be $6 million in 1976. Increases are provided for the research and development programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Fire Prevention and Control Administration, and the National Bureau of Standards. The principal objectives of the research and development programs in the Department of Commerce are to continue to improve the Nation's environmental prediction and warning capabilities, develop technology to improve the competitive position of the U.S. maritime industry, and encourage advancement of science and technology through improved measurements and standards. In 1976, NOAA will continue research to help reduce loss of life and property from natural disasters by improving the detection and tracking of weather systems and violent storms, and by extending the forecasting and data gathering programs. In the marine sciences, NOAA will conduct research aimed at the conservation and management of commercial fisheries in the United States. NOAA will also continue research programs in marine ecosystems analysis. 266 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 The National Fire Prevention and Control Administration will conduct research to reduce the loss of life and property from fires and will provide the essential technical knowledge on which new and improved fire prevention efforts can be based. The National Bureau of Standards will continue research aimed at development and maintenance of the Nation's physical measurements and standards, providing necessary support for the advancement of science and technology and for productivity enhancement. Special emphasis will be placed on measurements and standards needed for environmental pollution, improved use of materials, and improved Federal application of computers. The computer program will be increased in the areas of computer security and standards. The Maritime Administration will continue to assist the U.S. maritime industry to develop the technology necessary to improve its international competitive position. The emphasis in 1976 will be on improvements in ship-building methods and equipment, and development of shipping operations information systems. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Obligations of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for conduct of research and development will increase from $287 million to $300 million in 1976. Obligations for facilities will be $2 million in 1976. EPA supports K. & D. to determine the sources and effects of pollution and to develop and test pollution control technologies. The overall objective is to provide the scientific basis for standards development and effective control strategies and to identify and evaluate long-range environmental problems. Efforts are directed specifically to problems of air and water pollution control, water supply protection, solid and toxic waste management, pesticides control, radiation protection, noise abatement, energy development, and interdisciplinary studies. The air program seeks to develop predictive models of pollutant emission, transport, transformation, and removal, and to verify these models by actual measurement. In 1976, information on health effects of selected pollutants and catalytic-related emissions will be obtained. Work will continue on prototype demonstrations of processes for control of nitrogen oxide emissions. In the water program, increased attention will be given to demonstration of control technologies capable of reducing the capital and operating costs of municipal waste treatment, investigation of the health effects of land disposal of sludge, development of criteria for ocean dumping and outfalls, and evaluation of the cost and technical feasibility of specific nonpoint control measures designed to deal with agricultural runoff. Additional effort also will be given to development of more cost effective technologies suitable for small water supply systems, and a survey on the nature and toxicity of organic and inorganic contaminants and pathogenic organisms present in treated wastewater, The energy-related research effort will be increased to (1) determine environmental effects (and hence the control requirements) associated with energy resource extraction, transmission, conversion and use, (2) identify, develop and demonstrate necessary control SPECIAL ANALYSES 267 techniques based on the source effluent and ambient pollutant control requirements, and (3) evaluate the environmental, economic, and social consequences of alternative control strategies for energy systems as input to EPA policy formulation. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES A portion of the funds discussed above will be committed by the agencies to colleges and universities to perform R. & D. to assist in achieving agency missions. As shown in table P-10, the 1976 budget will provide $2,254 million obligations for this purpose as contrasted with $2,147 million in 1975. Table P-10. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES * (in millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Health, Education, and Welfare National Science Foundation Department of Defense—Military_.._ Agriculture Energy Research and Development Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration All Others Total 1 1974 actual Outlays 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1974 actual 1975 1976 estimate estimate 1,238 422 186 95 1,058 452 197 106 1,088 487 213 118 1,058 434 187 92 1,171 418 197 102 1,148 460 209 113 92 106 116 92 106 116 99 125 90 139 86 146 99 106 99 130 95 137 2,259 2,147 2,254 2,067 2,224 2,278 Amounts reported in this table are included in totals for conduct of R. & D. in previous tables. Federal funds are expected to continue to furnish the largest source (more than half) of the total support for university research and development activities. The funds assist in supporting faculty investigators and provide valaable experience and training for graduate students through employment on R. & D. projects. SPECIAL ANALYSIS Q FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS INTRODUCTION $6.5 billion in outlays on environmental programs has been initiated by 19 agencies and departments within the Federal Government in 1975 and $6.9 billion is expected to be spent in 1976. Although these programs span a wide spectrum of activities; ranging from basic ecological research to abatement of pollution from Federal facilities, all Federal expenditures on the environment can be classified in one of three broad categories: Pollution control and abatement; understanding, describing, and predicting the environment; and environmental protection and enhancement activities. The distribution of outlays by the Federal Government on these three categories of activity are displayed in chart Q-l, and summarized by type of spending for 1976 in the following schedule: 268 SPECIAL ANALYSES 269 1976 BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS—FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS [In millions of dollars] Protection and enhancement Understanding, describing, and predicting Pollution control and abatement Construction grants__ _ Total Authority 1,036.4 1,379.1 1,933.2 (*) Outlays 1,069.5 1,309.3 2,102.3 2,439.6 4,348.7 6,920.7 1 Contract authority for the Environmental Protection Agency's 1976 sewage facility grant program is included as 1975 budget authority since it is allocated and available for obligation in 1975 It should also be noted that Federal expenditures, unlike those of the private sector, can occur either as an outlay by a Federal agency for services rendered to itself (in-house activities) or as a transfer (grant) to States or local governments which, as the ultimate distributors of those funds are also rendered the services. The distinctions between direct Federal expenditures and those transferred to State and local governments are summarized by type of spending for 1976 in the following table: 1976 FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS [In millions of dollars] Outlays Enhancement Understanding, describing, and predicting Pollution abatement (excluding construction grants) Construction grants.. Total. * Not applicable. Direct 659.5 1,309.3 1,789.9 (l) Transfer 410.0 (*) 312.4 2,439.6 3,758.7 3.162.0 POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES The largest portion (66.0%) of Federal outlays expended on the environment occur for purposes of cleaning up the environment and preventing further deterioration. In 1976, outlays are estimated to be $4,541.9 million. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT EXPENDITURES (INCLUDING CONSTRUCTION GRANTS) [In millions of dollars] Budget authority Outlays 1 See footnote at bottom of Table Q - 1 . 1974 actual 6,894.8 2.974.2 1975 estimate 5,245.0 4,212.5 1976 estimate * 1,933.2 4,541.9 Within the pollution abatement and control category there are three primary areas of direct Federal activity—direct action to reduce pollution from Federal facilities, establishing and enforcing standards, and actions designed to research and develop technology and procedures to abate pollution as well as to identify the nature and sources of those pollutants. Two additional types of activity occur under the category pollution abatement and control. They are the allocation of substantial funds to State and local governments under financial assistance programs 580-700 O - ' 270 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 and a small amount of funding for manpower development. Table Q - l reflects these five major activities. Table Q-l. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES BY FUNCTION (in millions of dollars) Outlay* Budget authority Type of activity Financial aid to State, interstate, and local governments Research and development Standard setting and enforcement. Reduce pollution from Federal facilities Manpower development Other Total 1974 1975 226.1 710.4 1,867.2 414.5 2,698.7 581.3 2,752.0 683.6 371.5 433.9 303.7 368.4 416.5 337.2 11.5 82.6 343.6 10.7 87.2 415.4 17.4 130.0 300.6 9.5 78.7 469.3 10.3 84.5 570.7 13.4 105.7 6,894.8 5,245.0 1,933.2 2,974.2 4,212.5 4,541.9 1974 1975 5,644.8 506.2 3,718.6 713.4 312.5 1976 1 1976 1 Contract authority for the Environmental Protection Agency's sewage facility grant program is included as 1975 budget authority since it is allocated and available for obligation in 1975. It therefore appears in columns for budget authority for that year instead of the 1976 column. Activities involved.—Financial aid.—A substantial portion of 1976 Federal outlays in the financial aid category will be directed toward the construction of sewage treatment facilities. Of the $2,752.0 million in outlays, $2,439.6 million will be expended on the construction of these plants. These grant funds cover 75% of the eligible costs of these projects. Also included in this activity are funds made available to State, regional, and local agencies to help support their air and water pollution control programs. Outlays of $312.4 million will be generated in 1976 to provide financial assistance for such objectives as implementing the national primary and secondary ambient air quality monitoring systems, emission inventories, plans for effective enforcement of standards, transportation control plan development, and air pollution emergency plans. Research, development, and demonstration.—Table Q-l indicates that outlays on research and development will increase from $581.3 million in 1975 to $683.6 million in 1976. The research and development outlay figures include both primary and secondary activities. Primary refers to a research activity which has pollution control and abatement as its sole purpose; whereas secondary refers to a research activity which contributes to pollution abatement but which has some other primary purpose; for example, research on fish or animal migrations. Research and development activities begin with efforts directed toward identifying pollutants determining their sources and establishing their effects on the environment in general. Research on pollution control technology provides the next step in the research process. Once the sources and effects of dangerous pollutants have been identified, research efforts are shifted to the development of devices and techniques for removing emitted pollutants (retrofit devices) or reducing the initial generation of those pollutants (in-process changes). Health effects research is then initiated to determine the hazardous levels of pollutants on human beings. SPECIAL ANALYSES 271 The specific result of this research effort is the establishment of air, water, and hazardous waste emission standards. Monitoring research follows, and is primarily concerned with the development of devices and techniques for monitoring point source emissions and the ambient quality of the air and water. Since much research effort in the private sector is devoted to the development of monitoring equipment, research efforts within the Federal Government have generally emphasized monitoring techniques and sampling procedures. In addition, water quality research will continue with the development of criteria for protection of marine and fresh water fish and other aquatic life. Air quality research and development efforts will concentrate on the effects of pollution through field investigations, regional air pollution models, and epidemiological and toxicological studies of the effects of pollutants on man and animals. Ongoing demonstrations of stack gas treatment technology will be completed and efforts will be directed to long-term technologies relative to the development of clean fuels. Standard setting and enjorcement.—Table Q-l shows that outlays for standard setting and enforcement will increase from $368.4 million in 1975 to $416.5 million in 1976. Standard setting and enforcement includes a wide range of activities related to the regulatory efforts of the Federal Government in the area of pollution abatement, but primary emphasis is placed on monitoring, surveillance, standard setting, and enforcement. Monitoring and surveillance actions refer to Federal agency efforts related to the monitoring of discharged pollutants from point sources and the testing of ambient levels of pollutants, respectively. The accumulated monitoring data is then linked to Federal efforts to develop and review new or existing standards and to the enforcement of those Federal standards. It should be noted that grants to air and water control agencies which have standard setting and enforcement responsibilities are included in the financial assistance data presented in table Q-l. Pollution abatement from Federal facilities.—Federal agencies are actively involved in activities to control pollution from their facilities.1 Outlays for these and other activities to reduce pollution from Federal facilities will increase from $469.3 million in 1975 to $570.7 million in 1976. In general, outlays for pollution abatement from Federal facilities refer to remedial actions, process changes, fuel switching, and their related operating costs. Remedial actions refer to the placement of retrofit devices on existing facilities or facilities under construction. Retrofit devices treat pollutants after their generation only and are separately identifiable abatement technologies such as dust collectors, electrostatic percipitators, or treatment plants. Outlays on process changes refer to incremental expenditures for structures or equipment due to the incorporation of pollution abatement features. These process changes reduce or eliminate pollutant emissions by employing material substitution, reuse of waste or water, 1 Outlays are for facilities or properties which are either owned or leased by the Federal Government and reflect expenditures on existing facilities, additions to existing facilities or new facilities. 272 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 and equipment or production process alterations. Outlays for fuel switching include the increased costs for fuel and power incurred to reduce pollution (e.g., low sulfur fuel, or increased fuel or power consumption to operate retrofit devices). Operating costs include the costs of cleaning, servicing, and monitoring remedial or process change devices. Remedial actions continue to be the dominant activity for reducing pollution from Federal facilities (85%). Special attention is currently being given to the construction, or modification, of waste treatment plants, stack gas cleaning on Federal power facilities and joint projects with State and local governments for the disposal of solid or liquid waste. However, as standards become more clearly defined and as technological know-how increases, the use of remedial actions will drop relative to process changes. Manpower development.—Outlays for manpower development programs refer to in-house training activities, and fellowships, traineeships, and training grants. Pollution abatement by media.—Table Q-2 expresses the Nation's funding for pollution control and abatement by media polluted. Due to grants and loans for the construction of waste treatment plants, water receives the largest share of total Federal pollution control obligations (74.0%). Included in the funding for pollution control and abatement in table Q-2 are activities which directly contribute to the reduction of pollution. Activities which may ultimately lead to abatement and control but are carried on for some other purpose are excluded. Table Q-2. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES B Y MEDIA OR POLLUTANT (in millions of dollars) Media or pollutant Media polluted: Water: Construction grants or loans Other Air. Land Other (e.g., living things, materials). Multimedia (i.e., more than one of above) Total Selected pollutants:l Solid wastes Pesticides-... Radiation Noise _ Outlftvs 1974 actual Obligations 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1.825.6 444.6 328.4 34.3 198.4 142.9 2,965.0 499.8 490.1 40.4 190.6 146.7 4,495.9 638.3 636.0 46.4 359.1 194.6 5.411.5 643.5 531.3 70.3 393.4 256.7 2.974.2 4.332.6 6.370.3 7,306.7 252.5 55.6 118.8 32.3 109.4 64.2 121.4 60.8 130.2 72.9 160.5 57.0 119.7 83.0 192.5 69.9 * Funds for selected pollutants are included in "media" distribution above. Air and water (other than construction grants) pollution programs include research and development, grants to State and local government control agencies and direct Federal operations, such as monitoring, standard setting, enforcement, and reducing pollution from Federal facilities. SPECIAL ANALYSES 273 Activities relating to the abatement of pollution on land are for research and other studies or demonstration projects concerned with the effects of acid mine drainage, nutrients and pesticides and solid waste disposal. Federal efforts for those selected pollutants shown in table Q-2 are primarily directed toward research relating to effects, control technology, standard setting, and enforcement. Pollution control and abatement by agency.—Table Q-3, like table Q-l, shows total Federal funding for pollution abatement and control, but broken down by agency rather than by function. Sixteen agencies reported budget authority and outlays for this category of environmental expenditures for 1976. Table Q-3. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES—BY A G E N C Y (in millions of dollars) Budget authority A8ency Environmental Protection Agency Defense—Military Energy Research and Development Administration Transportation Agriculture Defense-Civil Interior Commerce _ National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation... Housing and Urban Development Tennessee Valley Authority.... Nuclear Regulatory Commission Other agencies Total 1974 actual 1975 estimate Outlays 1976 estimate 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 5.962.6 308.1 4.245.8 325.6 1742.8 421.1 2,032.0 231.4 2,936.6 309.0 3,079.5 390.6 131.2 91.6 124.9 8.6 48.0 66.6 187.5 88.1 104.7 10.3 56.4 49.8 236.2 96.7 118.7 10.0 65.6 46.1 104.0 58.8 123.1 8.6 41.1 58.1 150.9 79.3 171.9 10.3 50.8 53.1 184.9 98.9 166.2 10.0 57.9 48.8 67.8 13.4 65.2 16.8 65.1 13.0 22.9 14.3 55.3 14.7 65.9 15.0 8.4 3.3 54.3 6.0 9.7 3.4 68.7 13.0 10.1 3.2 91.7 12.9 M54.8 »62.1 54.1 8.9 157.5 141.5 68.7 12.9 148.0 171.0 91.7 13.5 6,894.8 5,245.0 1,933.2 2,974.2 4,212.5 4,541.9 Main agency activities.—The Environmental Protection Agency conducts and administers the major pollution control and abatement activities of the Federal Government. Outlays by EPA will increase from an estimated $2,936.6 million in 1975 to $3,079.5 million in 1976. EPA has responsibility over the administration of funding for a major portion of the largest single category of Federal spending for pollution control and abatement, that being grants for constructing or improving municipally owned waste treatment plants. Research and development will account for 40% of the estimated outlays of EPA's operating programs in 1976. (Construction grants are excluded from operating programs). These funds will be allocated for the study of the processes and effects of pollutants including the 274 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 health effects of pollutants, their ecological and other nonhealth effects, the movement and transformation of pollutants in the environment, the measurement of pollution problems, and research on low emission fuel-efficient vehicles. EPA's abatement and control programs apply to a wide variety of environmental problems—monitoring, establishment, and enforcement of standards, issuing of permits, and providing technical assistance regarding air, water, solid waste, noise, hazardous materials, and pesticides pollution. The Department of the Interior's Bureau of Mines conducts research and development on procedures to prevent and abate pollution from mining and is attempting to develop improved methods of removing pollutants from mineral processing plants, and for recovering the valuable constituents in mineral processing wastes. It will increase research efforts for methods of converting coal to fuel gas with less pollution. The Department oj Defense is expanding its research program to reduce pollution from its industrial production, military, and other facilities. The Corps of Engineers administers a permit program under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act which makes it illegal to discharge dredged or fill material into a navigable water without a permit. The Corps will continue to prepare studies regarding implementation of regional water quality management plans. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts a continuing research and development program to reduce aircraft noise and pollution. NASA is undertaking a major program to develop spacecraft with the capability of detecting and monitoring atmospheric pollution. The Department of Commerce conducts a number of pollution control and abatement activities. Its Economic Development Administration and the Kegional Action Planning Commissions provide grants and loans for the construction of water and waste treatment facilities and water and sewer lines where these items are needed to foster economic development. Technical assistance is also provided to solve pollution control and abatement problems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is carrying on a broad scale program of equipment installation to further control water pollution resulting from its ship operations. The National Bureau of Standards is engaging in research and development for reference standards and measurement systems for air, water, radiation, and noise pollution. The Department of Transportation's major programs lie in the area of noise pollution control. The Federal Highway Administration is studying techniques to decrease the impact of highway noise, and to control erosion from highway construction. The Federal Aviation Administration is continuing its program to develop quieter aircraft engines. It is also investigating sonic booms, and development of design guidelines for airports so that they are consistent with neighboring land use policies. The Urban Mass Transportation Administration will continue support of programs to demonstrate advanced bus and rail technology which reduce pollution and conserve energy. In addition, the U.S. Coast Guard investigates coastal oil spills, and initiates preventive and clean-up actions if the polluter cannot be identified or is not capable of such actions. SPECIAL ANALYSES 275 The Department of Agriculture conducts research on problems of agriculturally related pollution. The Cooperative State Research Service and the Extension Service are continuing to develop methods of reducing pollution from the production and processing of agricultural products. The Forest Service investigates and applies methods of controlling sediment pollution and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service conducts programs to reduce the amount of pesticides used to control pests. The Farmers Home Administration makes loans to local organizations to provide for the collection and disposal of human, animal, agricultural, and other wastes in rural areas. The Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) is expanding its research relating to pollution sources and effects to assure that rapidly expanding energy technologies currently under development will be implemented with minimal impacts on the environment. Research will also emphasize pilot plant projects for converting coal to fuel gas with less pollution. Prevention and abatement of pollution from mining and the development of improved methods of removing pollutants from mineral processing plants will be continued. Projects aimed at the recovery of valuable constituents in mineral processing wastes will be expanded. UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT Eleven Federal agencies will spend outlays of $1.4 billion in 1976 on activities oriented toward describing the environment, predicting environmental conditions and increasing man's understanding of his role in the broad ecological cycle of which he is a part. Though these activities may ultimately lead to the reduction of pollution, they are not specifically intended for that purpose. Instead, their purpose is to gain a broad understanding of ecological systems and environmental interactions. As such they include efforts toward: • Observing and predicting weather, ocean conditions, and shock environmental disturbances such as earthquakes. This activity would include the collection of oceanographic and meteorological data, and activities which improve weather monitoring, predicting and warning. Weather satellite programs which will provide enhanced environmental warning services (via an air quality observation network) are also included. • Locating and describing natural resources. Programs such as the earth resources technology satellite (ERTS) program are helping to better understand existing natural resource systems and also identify, evaluate, and monitor new and existing natural resources. • Preparing physical environmental surveys of the environment for mapping and charts and related research. • Weather modification research—includes experiments on weather modification. • Understanding the impact of man on the environment, and • Ecological and other basic environmental research—involving the development of baseline data on the abundance and distribution of plants and animals in relation to the modification of the environment by man. 276 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING 1976 THE ENVIRONMENT {In millions of dollars] Budget authority. Outlays _ 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 1,128.6 1,065.3 1,298.0 1,236.2 1,379.1 1,309.3 Table Q-4 shows the distribution of both budget authority and outlays by the various functions listed above. Table Q-4. UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT—BY FUNCTION (in millions of dollart) Budget authority Activity Observe and predict weather ocean conditions, and disturbances: Research and development... Operations Locating and describing natural resources: Research and development... Operations Physical environmental surveys: Research and development... Operations Weather modification research.. Research on environmental impact on man Ecological and other basic environmental research Total.... 1974 actual ?975 estimate Outlays 1976 estimate 1974 actual T975 estimate 1976 estimate 169.2 340.8 172.5 376.8 206.6 388.4 149.8 334.2 153.4 358.2 176.6 371.2 142.1 142.9 188.6 173.9 191.6 187.6 120.1 140.1 176.2 176.2 188.5 183.7 14.2 107.3 21.6 13.3 125.8 22.4 11.3 121.5 21.1 15.8 98.6 22.2 11.2 117.1 23.4 7.8 115.1 21.5 96.7 116.9 129.2 95.7 119.8 130.0 93.8 107.8 121.8 88.8 100.7 114.9 1,128.6 1,298.0 1,379.1 1,065.3 1,236.2 1,309.3 Table Q-5 shows the distribution of total budget authority and outlays shown in table Q-4 by the major agencies involved in this category of activity. Table Q-5. UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT—BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Agency Commerce Defense—Military National Science Foundation... Interior National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agriculture Energy Research and Develop* ment Administration Health, Education, and Welfare Transportation Smithsonian Institution Other agencies Totals 1974 actual 1^75 estimate Outlays 1976 estimate 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 330.9 151.1 112.4 162.2 369.8 163.5 120.4 233.9 383.9 165.8 139.9 246.7 329.9 135.4 105.9 151.2 354.3. 140.5 113.2 229.2 346.3 145.6 126.4 240.1 116.8 113.8 115.4 129.6 128.2 133.7 89.3 114.5 100.8 132.9 118.6 133.2 65.2 28.4 18.2 11.1 18.5 87.3 28.0 14.6 12.8 22.7 101.0 28.1 16.5 12.3 23.0 64.8 27.9 18.0 10.3 18.1 85.8 31.3 14.0 12.1 22.1 100.8 29.4 15.9 12.5 22.5 1,236.2 1,309.3 1,128.6 1,298.0 1,379.1 1,065.3 SPECIAL ANALYSES 277 Agencies involved.—Department 0/ Transportation research will focus on making transportation facilities compatible with the environment, and on conserving energy through more efficient use of existing transportation resources. The Coast Guard collects oceanographic and meteorological data for the preparation of maps and charts to be used in the development of ocean transportation. FAA activities are devoted to an understanding of adverse environmental effects of aircraft noise, pollution, and sonic booms. The agency will continue work on a multiyear, multimillion dollar research program on the effects of engine exhaust on the stratosphere. Research by the Department of Housing and Urban Development includes analyses to increase knowledge of the effects of urban and nonurban change, particularly as it affects and is affected by the natural environment. The Smithsonian Institution develops environmental base line data on the abundance and distribution of plants and animals in relation to modification of the environment by man. It also identifies indicator organisms that can be used in monitoring the environment. In the Department oi Commerce, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conducts a wide range of environmental monitoring and prediction activities, weather modification experiments, surveys for mapping and charting, data archiving and dissemination services, and related research. Continued emphasis will be given to improving weather monitoring, prediction, and warning to help further reduce the loss of life and property from natural disasters. Increased outlays in 1976 will support improvement of weather prediction and warnings through better basic observations. This program will concentrate on procedures to modify FAA radar equipment in mountainous areas to insure continued availability of weather data from these sites. The weather satellite program will provide enhanced environmental warning services and will prepare for the next generation of polar-orbiting satellites. Implementation of the air quality observation network will be continued as will coastal zone research. The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, through the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, conducts research directed at the identification of chemical, physical, and biological environmental factors which affect human health. The Department oj Defense conducts activities in environmental observation and measurement to describe and predict weather, ocean conditions, and disturbances important to military operations. Research is conducted in oceanographic instrumentation development and operational systems for observing and forecasting the ocean environment. The Corps of Engineers conducts hydrologic studies as a background for future use in optimum design, construction, and operation of water control structures. The Corps also examines the effects of construction on coastal ecology in order to permit more accurate assessment of the ecological effects of offshore construction and dredging. The National Science Foundation supports environmental research with the objective of increasing the Nation's knowledge base in order to improve environmental management. Studies are undertaken in all aspects of the biosphere on an environmental systems basis. Efforts 278 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 will continue to measure and assess the environmental effects of mining, manufacturing, use, and disposal of metallic and synthetic organic compounds. In the Department of Agriculture, the Agriculture Research Service conducts research by remote sensing to study animals in a natural environment, crop conditions and insect infestations, and soil-waterplant conditions in order to improve both animal and crop production. It is also increasing its efforts to monitor and understand the ecological patterns of disease and insects in order to develop an integrated pest management program which would reduce the use of pesticides. The Forest Service studies forest ecosystems so that policy decisions and management practices can lead to improved productivity while maintaining the quality of the environment. The Soil Conservation Service conducts soil and snow surveys, and makes water supply forecasts. The Department oj^ the Interior supports research conducted by the Bureau of Reclamation on weather modification, water salinity problems, and the effects of water resource development projects on ecology and limnology. The National Park Service conducts natural science ecological studies leading to improved resource management and proposals relating to impact of development on the park environment while the Office of Water Resources Research sponsors, and provides for the conduct of research, investigations, and experiments in the water resources field. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, through its use of satellites, has developed a number of programs with the potential of making accurate short-term (a few hours) weather predictions, and accurate long-term (2 weeks) weather and climate predictions. In addition to helping to better understand natural resources systems, the ERTS program is used for identifying, evaluating, and monitoring animal and plant habitats and distributions, water and vegetation distribution, surface mositure, and the effect of thermal and particulate pollution on the ecology and environment. The Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) will direct research toward the siting problems of powerplants in fulfillment of the requirements of NEPA. Further information will be gathered on the biological effects of thermal effluents on various aquatic ecosystems; the effects (by nuclear powerplants) of various attrition rates of larvae fishes on the ability of adult fishes to maintain themselves; the overall effects of various alternative methods of cooling water disposal; and the toxicity of various chemicals added to cooling systems to prevent biological fouling. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ENHANCEMENT Activities within this category place emphasis on enabling man to use and enjoy the outdoor environment through the provision of recreational facilities, parks and open areas. In 1976, $1.1 billion will be spent on this type of planning for conservation and management of wildlife and fishery resources. The achievement of these goals is accomplished by both direct Federal expenditures and by grants to State and local governments. Direct Federal programs are primarily directed toward providing for SPECIAL ANALYSES 279 the acquisition of land in order to preserve nationally unique natural areas and supporting sport fish and wildlife preservation. State and local governments use grant funds to acquire and develop land for recreational purposes and to preserve local fish and wildlife refuges. Table Q-6 shows the distribution of Federal funding across the major program areas within this category. It also shows the allocation of total funds between direct Federal activities and grants to State and local governments. Table Q-6. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ENHANCEMENT—BY FUNCTION (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Activity Financial aid to State and local governments: Purchase, development and operations: City recreation Preserve unique areas Noncity general recreation. Sport fish and wildlife Historic preservation and rehabilitation.. Other State and local aid___ J975 Outlays 1976 ^974 wTb I^T 35.6 .2 59.0 75.0 50.9 .2 141.5 85.0 49.8 2.5 147.0 89.4 ^ 93.1 ^5.0 120.8 67.8 106.5 23.5 123.4 82.7 92.4 25.8 135.9 85.8 11.6 12.1 20.1 13.4 20.1 22.0 11.4 14.9 16.9 29.7 20.0 50.1 193.5 311.1 3308 333.0 382.7 410.0 103.2 137.8 117.0 108.1 120.9 113.4 130.8 127.0 60.8 168.6 184.9 72.1 210.5 180.2 70.0 151.0 128.2 61.6 136.0 178.5 64.5 182.8 178.5 67.3 37.0 49.8 66.6 72.8 55.2 72.7 40.6 47.6 51.8 74.6 45.7 71.8 Subtotal 508.6 702.8 705.6 537.1 626.3 659.5 Total 702.1 1,013.9 1,036.4 870.1 1,009.0 1,069.5 Subtotal...... Direct Federal activities: Purchase, Development and operations: City recreation Preserve unique natural areas Noncity general recreation. Sport fish and wildlife Historic preservation and rehabilitation.. Other direct activities 1 1974 See footnote at bottom of Table Q-7. As indicated in table Q-6 the major environmental protection and enhancement activities are: • City recreation—including direct Federal involvement or Federal financial assistance for projects which establish or develop parks and recreational facilities in urban areas; • Preservation of unique national areas which includes programs related to national parks, monuments, scenic rivers, trails, wildernesses, seashores, and wildlife refuges; • Noncity general recreation program including those for recreation in nonurban areas such as national forests and Federal water projects; • Sport fish and wildlife projects which create and manage wildlife refuges, fish hatcheries, and protect rare and endangered species, and 280 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976 • Historic preservations and rehabilitation of national historic sites and military parks. Table Q-7 illustrates the distribution of funds in this category by agency. Table Q-7. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ENHANCEMENT—BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Agency Interior Agriculture Defense-Civil Commerce HUD. Other agencies Total 1 1974 498.0 88.2 54.5 35.5 (i) 25.9 1975 797.6 92.1 77.3 38.6 (i) 8.3 702.1 1,013.9 Outlays 1976 803.7 101.6 77.8 44.8 0) • 8.5 1,036.4 1974 606.4 84.0 54.5 24.0 92.7 8.5 1975 682.0 99.6 72.8 38.3 90.6 25.7 870.1 1,009.0 1976 733.0 97.2 82.0 38.4 110.6 8.3 1,069.5 Outlays are from budget authority prior to fiscal year 1974. Agencies involved.—The Department of the Interior, through its Bureau of Land Management, protects and manages over 450 million acres in the Western States and Alaska, representing 20% of America's land base. Legislation has been proposed that would establish as national policy, that these resource lands be managed under principles of multiple use and sustained yield in such a way as to protect the quality of the environment. The Bureau of Outdoor Recreation promotes the coordination of outdoor recreation programs, and administers the Land and Water Conservation Fund which provides grants for planning, acquisition, and development of State and local recreation areas and Federal purchases of nationally important lands. The Fish and Wildlife Service provides assistance to State and local governments for fish and wildlife restoration, management, and research. The Service administers 95 hatcheries and 356 units in the National Wildlife Refuge System containing 30.7 million acres. Endangered species are protected on 82 of the national wildlife refuges. The National Park Service administers 308 areas comprising about 29 million acres located in 47 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These include national parks, monuments, historic sites, and other areas which have been established to preserve the Nation's natural and historic heritage. In the Department of Commerce, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is placing emphasis on improved management of the Nation's coastal zone through federally assisted and coordinated State programs. In 1976, NOAA will continue to provide grants to States for the preparation of their coastal zone management plans and the initial phases of administration of those plans. Other activities in 1976 will provide for administration and enforcement of the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972, research on the status of stocks of whales, and research on fur seals. Research on aquaculture and grants to States for the enhancement and restoration of the marine fishery resources will be continued. SPECIAL ANALYSES 281 The Department of Agriculture carries out a variety of enhancement activities, particularly through the Forest Service. The 187 million acres of national forest lands are managed in accordance with the provisions of the Multiple Use-Sustained Yield Act to provide outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed, mineral, and wildlife values in combinations that will best protect resources without impairing the productivity of the land. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Significant funding of environment-related research and development will continue in 1976. Research and development programs exist under both the pollution control and abatement and the understanding, describing, and predicting categories. Table Q-8. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Category Pollution control and abatement 1 Understanding, describing, and predicting Total 1 1974 actual 506.2 537.6 1,043.8 Outlays 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 713.4 710.4 621.5 1,334.9 681.6 1,392.0 1974 actual 1975 estimate 1976 estimate 414.5 581.3 683.6 492.4 584.7 639.3 906.9 1,166.0 1,322.9 Includes both primary and secondary research and development. U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1975 O - 580-700 EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET