The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
SPECIAL ANALYSES OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 SPECIAL ANALYSES OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 FOREWORD This volume of Special Analyses contains facts and figures on various features of the recommendations transmitted by the President in The Budget of the United States Government, 1973. Its purpose is to present special analytical information about significant aspects of Government activities. This complements the detailed financial and program information which is contained in the Budget Appendix. Part 1 provides analyses and tabulations which cover Government finances and operations as a whole, and reflect the ways in which Government finances affect the economy. Part 2 furnishes Government-wide program and financial information in seven social program areas—education, manpower, health, income security, housing, civil rights, and crime reduction. Part 3 discusses trends and developments in selected areas of Government activity—aid to State and local governments, public works, research and development, and environmental quality. GENERAL NOTES 1. All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. 2. Detail in the tables, text, and charts of this volume may not add to the totals because of rounding. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON 1972 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 - Price $1.60 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page PART 1. ECONOMIC A N D FINANCIAL ANALYSES 5 A. Federal transactions in the national income accounts B. Funds in the budget C. Borrowing, debt, and investment D. Investment, operating, and other budget outlays E. Federal credit programs F. Principal Federal statistical programs G. Balances of budget authority H. Civilian employment in the executive branch_ PART 2. FEDERAL SOCIAL PROGRAMS I. Federal education programs J. Federal manpower programs K. Federal health programs L. Federal income security programs M. Federal housing programs N. Federal civil rights activities 0 . Federal programs for the reduction of crime PART 3. SPECIALIZED ASPECTS A N D VIEWS OF FEDERAL PROGRAMS P. Federal aid to State and local governments Q. Federal public works activities R. Federal research and development programs S. Federal environmental programs . 3 7 18 31 45 69 87 97 106 115 117 136 153 179 202 209 224 237 239 256 279 296 PART 1 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSES INTRODUCTION Part 1 provides analyses and tabulations which cover Government finances and operations as a whole, and reflect the ways in which Government finances affect the economy. These special analyses encompass those designated A through H. Special Analysis A presents the Federal budget estimates in terms of the national income accounts. It is designed to explain the relationships of the unified budget of the Federal Government to the national income accounts, which constitute the most widely used measure of aggregate economic activity in the United States. Special Analysis B classifies budget information by the groups of funds (Federal and trust) which comprise the budget. It also presents aggregate data on the gross receipts and outlays of all funds. Special Analysis C summarizes current developments and trends in Federal borrowing, debt, and interest, and the investment of Federal and trust funds in Federal securities. It includes a summary of both Federal and federally assisted borrowing from: the public to display some measure of the Government's impact on the credit markets. Special Analysis D classifies budget outlays in terms of the duration and nature of the benefits derived, distinguishing those of an investment or development type from those which primarily yield current benefits. Apart from this analysis and the distribution between the loan account and the expenditure account, the U.S. budget, unlike those of some other governments, includes outlays which are for "capital" or investment-type activities in the same accounts in which "current" activities and costs are shown. Special Analysis E covers Federal credit programs—direct loans, guarantees of private loans, and loans of federally sponsored credit agencies. It includes an analysis of loan subsidy costs, and provides an aggregate measure of total credit supplied to the public under Federal auspices. Special Analysis F reflects the year-to-year level of activity under the principal programs of the Federal Government for collecting current statistics, and current spending for periodic statistics obtained in census-type surveys usually conducted every 5 or 10 years. Special Analysis G analyzes the unobligated and obligated balances of budget authority for Federal and trust funds carried forward at the end of each fiscal year. Special Analysis H deals with the levels of civilian employment in the executive branch. It also contains figures on total Federal personnel (including military personnel). SPECIAL ANALYSIS A FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS The budget is designed to serve many purposes: • To serve the broadest national objectives, it proposes an allocation of resources between the private and public sectors, within the public sector and, through its effect on investment decisions, within the private sector; • It is an economic document that reflects the taxing and spending policies of the Government for promoting growth of the national economy, high employment, relative price stability, and strengthening of the Nation's balance-of-payments position; • It sets forth the President's requests to Congress for appropriation action on existing or new programs, and changes in tax legislation; and • It is a report to the Congress and the people on how the Government has spent the funds entrusted to it in past years. No single budget concept can completely satisfy all these purposes. The budget document and related Treasury reports are designed to provide complete, detailed information on the finances of the Federal Government. For those concerned with aggregate economic activity in the country, however, the national income accounts (NIA) of the United States are the most widely used measures—and interest is focused heavily on the Federal sector of these accounts. The purpose of this analysis is to explain the relationships of the budget to the Federal sector of the national income accounts, and to translate the budget estimates into national income account terms. It is divided into two major sections: (1) The size and trends of major components in the Federal sector; and (2) the relationship between the Federal sector and the budget. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Total receipts forecast in the budget for the Federal sector of the NIA are estimated to rise by $25.1 billion between 1972 and 1973, reaching a total of $227.9 billion in 1973. Expenditures are expected to rise by $18.1 billion amounting to $255.9 billion in 1973, resulting in a deficit of $28 billion. Table A-l shows total Federal sector receipts and outlays by category for 1971-73, along with the deficits. These deficits are the product of the temporary slowdown in the economy resulting in lower receipts and higher expenditures than would occur under full employment. As the economy moves back toward its potential these deficits will automatically be offset by higher receipts and reductions in expenditures for unemployment benefits and other cyclical spending. 8 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table A-1. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS (in billions of dollars) Description 1971 1972 1973 RECEIPTS Personal tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts .._. 87.7 32.5 20.3 53.5 91.3 33.0 19.8 58.7 98.3 40.7 20. 7 68.2 194.0 202.8 227.9 95.3 (73.0) (22.4) 69.9 (67.5) (2.4) 27.0 14.2 5.9 .1 103.0 (73.3) (29.7) 79.8 (77.0) (2.8) 36.2 13.4 5.4 107.0 (76.7) (30.4) 87.4 (84.5) (2.9) 40.6 14.8 6.0 212.4 237.8 255.9 18.4 35.0 28.0 EXPENDITURES Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage accruals less disbursements Total expenditures Deficit Trends in Federal sector receipts.—As shown in table A-1, the receipts are divided into four major categories. The largest category— personal tax and nontax receipts—normally provides over two-fifths of the total. Since the bulk of these receipts are derived from individual income taxes, they tend to respond rapidly to the level of economic activity. Since corporate profits are very erratic, corporate profits tax accruals are the most volatile category of receipts. The NIA category differs from the budget category of corporate profits taxes in that: (1) It includes the deposit of earnings by the Federal Reserve System as corporate taxes while the budget records them as miscellaneous receipts, and (2) it records tax accruals while the budget records cash receipts. Indirect business tax and nontax accruals are composed mainly of excise taxes and customs duties, but also include rents and royalties paid by business to the Government. This category has been becoming a much less important part of the Federal tax structure over the past two decades largely because of reduction or repeal of some excise taxes. Contributions for social insurance constitute the second largest category of Federal sector receipts. The rapid rise in these receipts over the past two decades has been caused by the growth in the labor force and wage rates, expanded coverage or enactment of new social insurance programs, and the higher contribution rates needed to finance liberalization of benefits under social insurance programs. Table A-2 shows the Federal sector receipts relative to broad measures of economic activity. 9 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table A-2. FEDERAL SECTOR RECEIPTS RELATED TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Total Personal tax and C Indirect Time period of GNP of personal income profits percent of GNP Contributions for compensation of employees 5-YEAR AVERAGES 1946-50 __ 1951-55 __ 1956-60. . _ . 1961-65 1966-70 17.4 18.8 18.5 18.9 19.8 9.0 10.4 10.5 10.6 12.9 35.2 45.9 43.0 41.0 40.1 3.3 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.1 3.9 3.9 5.0 6.5 7.9 ANNUAL DATA 1963 1964 1965 1966 . 1967 _ 1968 . . __ __ 1969 ___ _ 1970 197L.__ __ . 1972 estimate 19.2 18.9 18.4 18.4 19.1 19.4 21.2 20.4 19.2 18.6 10.9 10.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 10.9 12.2 12.2 10.6 10.3 41.4 40.4 38.7 37.8 38.3 40.0 42.4 42.0 40.6 36.9 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.9 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 Trends in Federal sector expenditures.—Federal sector expenditures, like receipts, are divided into several major groupings, depending upon the nature of the transaction. The primary division is between purchases of goods and services (defense and nondefense) and all other transactions. Purchases represent that portion of the Nation's output that is bought directly by the Federal Government; the other categories consist primarily of transfers of income to other levels of government, individuals or other groups which, in turn, can use them to finance their own purchases of goods and services. A major shift in the composition of Federal sector expenditures has been underway for several years. The chart shows the relative decline of defense spending and the corresponding rise in domestic programs, especially grants-in-aid and domestic transfer payments. In calendar year 1971 total domestic transfer payments and grants-in-aid were larger than total purchases of goods and services for the first time in 40 years. 10 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Distribution of Federal Sector Expenditures by Category Percent Other Non-Defense Purchases VSvS&SSS •,-;-,->xxXX '.•'.•'.•".•".•'•"//.• fflSfflw '.-.-. y-iooQ • •••v w v 88888888? • • • '>jvvy 8888? Sxvwyyyy ••.••x888? XTOOOCW £85vyyyw •xxx? X88? 88888888? <xx8? 8888 .-.•.•>,vv58? 08888888? S8888888? .•.•.•.•.j888> 8ooo8888< <» 5^XXX 58880 88885 8 8 8 8 5885oc RXXXi vvvsc 88885 885v5? xvvvs 88885 88885 885vv 888855888S 5888S XXXX? oow 85s885 85yys? 58888 xxSov 8888?58888 8888? 8888 8888?X8>88 8888? 8888< 8888? 58888 58888 58888 58888 58888 58888 58888 9VW ^ ^ ^ 999O< '^cX; 9388?•5888? 5888c•5888? W m m m xM Bi • 0000 •5888? 5888? 5888? <xxx> <xx5v S S J o voow v w •5888? R500O W9V RX88? ?xxx> w w >8888 5888? «8»8888 ww wvv vwv wvv wvv s885v vvvv <5ooo 8x885 8x885 8><5s85 88885 88885 8?wv Wk 885<85 88x85 m. m. 88885 x5v5o m Defense Purchases 85ws5 8888< >S88< 888 5888? M 5888? 9vw 5888? 8^ / Domestic Transfer Payments , juuuf Grants-in-Aid 1961 1965 1969 Two major factors warrant highlighting: (1) The relative expansion of Federal programs devoted to coping with domestic needs, and (2) the relative decentralization of decisionmaking regarding the ultimate use of Federal money. Since the Federal Government normally exercises much more direct control over purchases than over grants and transfers, the shift from purchases to grants and transfers is a major factor in decentralizing decisionmaking. Defense purchases of goods and services.—This category includes most of the expenditures of the Department of Defense, the military assistance program, the Atomic Energy Commission, and other defenserelated activities. I t has now been reduced to the second largest single component of Federal sector outlays. Defense spending fluctuates widely, depending on the state of international tensions. At the peak of World War II, defense purchases constituted over 40% of the total GNP. The Korean and Vietnam conflicts commanded fewer of our resources—defense purchases peaked at 13%% of GNP in the Korean conflict and slightly over 9% in the Vietnam conflict. In 1971 they totaled 7.2% of GNP and are expected to be 6.7% this year. However, the decline in absolute spending has been reversed; the continued decline relative to GNP is because the economy is expected to rise at a much faster rate than the increase in defense purchases. SPECIAL ANALYSES 11 Nondefense purchases of goods and services.—This category covers the goods and services purchased for Federal civilian operations including such programs as maintenance of national forest, park, and recreation areas; space exploration; promotion of commerce; acquisition and disposal of agricultural commodities, construction of flood control and navigation projects; operation of the Federal airway system; a wide variety of medical and other scientific research; Federal law enforcement activities; and maintenance of veterans hospitals. For the past decade the National Aeronautics and Space Agency had larger nondefense purchases than any other agency. Indeed, it accounted for about 60% of the $8.4 billion growth in this category between 1961 and 1966. As a result of subsequent reductions, however, NASA purchases in 1973 will be about half the 1966 level in current prices and substantially less than half after taking account of inflation. The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare now has the largest volume of nondefense purchases. Purchases by this department are largely to finance the administrative costs of grant and transfer programs and to conduct medical research. Domestic transfer payments.—This is now the largest category of Federal sector expenditures. Spending in these programs has expanded rapidly, mainly because of larger numbers of beneficiaries and higher benefit payments under the social insurance programs. Approximately two-thirds of the payments are for retirement and disability, with the old-age and survivors insurance fund (OASI) constituting over 70% of retirement and disability payments and nearly one-half of all domestic transfer payments. Other major components of retirement and disability are civil service retirement, railroad retirement, disability insurance, and military retired pay. Table A-3. DOMESTIC TRANSFER PAYMENTS (in billions of dollars) Fiscal year Total 1960 1961 _ 1962 1963 1964 _ . 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1 Less than $50 imillion. 20.6 23.6 25.1 26.4 27.3 28.3 31.8 37.2 42.7 48.5 54.9 67.5 77.0 84.5 Retirement and disability 13.1 14.4 16.4 18.0 19.1 20.2 23.9 25.3 27.9 32.0 35.5 42.2 47.3 54.1 Hospital and supplementary medical insurance Food stamps (1) (*) (1) 0) 0) 3.2 5.1 6.3 6.8 7.5 8.5 9.9 0.1 .1 .2 .2 .6 1.5 2.0 2.3 Veterans insurance and benefits Unemployment benefits 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.3 5.5 6.2 6.9 8.0 9.1 9.4 2.7 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.0 5.7 7.] 5.7 Other 0.4 .4 .5 .5 .6 .8 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.3 12 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Another large group of domestic transfer payments is for medical care under the hospital and supplementary medical insurance programs. These transfers did not exist prior to 1967, but by 1973 they are expected to provide $9.9 billion to beneficiaries. The food stamp program began in 1961 and grew gradually until 1970, when it more than doubled and is continuing to expand at a rapid rate. In practice, most expenditures under the income security and health categories of grants-in-aid provide benefits for the same low-income groups that are assisted by food stamps. Total outlays for the three categories together were $2.5 billion in 1960; in 1965 they totaled $4.0 billion; by 1969 they were $8.5 billion and they are expected to total $18.3 billion in 1973. This growth reflects the rapid expansion of public assistance payments in recent years plus expansion of the food stamp program. Veterans insurance and benefits have traditionally been a major category of outlays. They include transfer payments made by the Veterans Administration but not Defense Department retired pay, which is included in retirement and disability payment grouping. Nearly half of the increase in this category between 1966 and 1973 is for educational benefits (the GI bill); most of the remainder of the increase is for veterans compensation and pensions. The other major group of domestic transfer payments is unemployment benefits. There has been a gradual rise in expenditures under this program over time because of higher average benefit payments. These benefit payments are large in 1971-73 because of the relatively high rate of unemployment and the availability of extended unemployment benefits. As the unemployment level decreases, the level of benefit payments should decrease significantly. Grants-in-aid.—This group of outlays is composed of many programs designed to help State and local governments to: (1) provide public services, and (2) finance programs for the needy. Table A-4. FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID (in billions of dollars) Fiscal year 1960 1961 1962.._ 1963 1964 1965 _ 1966 1967 1968 1969.. 1970. _ 1971 1972 estimate. _ 1973 estimate Total 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.4 9.8 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.8 19.4 22.6 27.0 36.2 40.6 Income security 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.6 4.8 5.7 8.1 11.2 10.8 Health 0.2 .3 .4 .5 .7 .7 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.9 5.3 Education and manpower Transportation Community development and housing 0.5 .5 .6 .7 .8 1.1 2.2 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.0 6.0 7.1 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.5 0.1 .1 .2 .2 .2 .4 .4 .6 .8 1.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.8 Revenue sharing and other 1 0.8 .9 .0 0 .4 .5 .6 6 .5 1.8 2.1 2.4 5.8 9.1 1 A general program of revenue sharing is proposed to begin in 1972 with outlays of $2.2 billion in 1972 and $5.0 billion in 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSE© 13 The categories of income security and health are almost entirely devoted to providing assistance to low-income persons. Most outlays for these programs—which include public assistance, Medicaid, and vocational rehabilitation—are established by statutory formulas and have risen dramatically in recent years. Special Analysis K (Federal Health Programs) and Special Analysis L (Federal Income Security Programs) provide more specific coverage of these activities. Another group of grant programs is devoted to education and manpower activities. The largest education grant programs are for elementary and secondary education (which are focused heavily on economically deprived areas), higher education, and Federal aid to impacted areas (for school districts with children of Federal civilian or military personnel). A new program in this group is for emergency school assistance to overcome problems of racial isolation. Manpower training programs and public service jobs are a rapidly expanding segment of Federal grants-in-aid. Special Analysis I (Federal Education Programs) and Special Analysis J (Federal Manpower Programs) provide detailed discussions of these programs. Transportation has been a major component of grant outlays since the mid-1950's. We have financed a nationwide system of roads that is unsurpassed in the world. While progress toward completion of this system is continuing, heavy attention is now being given to improving the safety and effectiveness of our aviation, passenger railroad, and urban mass transit systems. The rapid increase in grants for community development and housing is concentrated largely in the urban renewal and Model Cities programs. While the budget classifies payments for low-rent public housing as grants, in the NIA they are counted as nondefense purchases. The final category in table A-4 includes grants for pollution control and abatement, crime control, and general revenue sharing, all of which are expected to grow rapidly in 1973. A more detailed discussion of grant-in-aid programs is presented in Special Analysis P of this budget. Although the scope of that analysis differs somewhat from the NIA, most of the programs are common to both. The principal differences between the Special Analysis P and the NIA grants are: (1) Special Analysis P includes some outlays (mainly for food stamps, the Office of Economic Opportunity, and hospital construction) that the NIA treats as transfer payments; (2) Special Analysis P generally excludes payments for research, while the NIA includes research payments to public universities as grants; and (3) Special Analysis P includes aid in kind, while the NIA treats these as nondefense purchases. Other Federal sector expenditures.—Four other categories complete the Federal sector expenditures. The principal growth in recent years is for net interest paid. This growth has been caused primarily by higher interest rates; however, interest rates have recently fallen so the increase in interest in 1973 is due principally to changes in the size of the debt. Foreign transfer payments are mainly of three types—expenditure of dollars to assist economic development programs, grants of foreign currencies that are earned from the sale of surplus agricultural products, and payments for social security and similar programs to 14 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 individuals living abroad. Although payments to individuals are gradually rising (roughly proportionate with the rise in GNP), total foreign transfer payments have been stable (and a declining proportion of GNP) for many years. Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises consist of two elements that are consolidated for statistical reasons: (a) Subsidy payments to resident businesses; and (b) the "current surplus" or "deficit" of Government enterprises. (a) A subsidy is a monetary grant to a unit engaged in commercial activities (mainly businesses and farms). Examples of subsidies are: Government payments to farmers for land retirement, payments to air carriers, and the operating differential subsidy of the Maritime Administration. (b) Government enterprise is the term applied to those functions of the Government (usually appearing in the budget as public enterprise revolving funds) for which operating costs are to a great extent covered by the sale of goods and services to the public, as distinguished from those financed by tax receipts. Government enterprises conduct operations that are of a business-type nature. The difference between their sales and current operating expenses constitutes the surplus or deficit of Government enterprises. The largest of these enterprises are the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), the Postal Service, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. Wage accruals less disbursements is an adjustment item occasionally made in the NIA to take account of the fact that wages and salaries are not always received at the same time as they are earned. National income is typically recorded in the period when earned, rather than when received—i.e., an accrual basis of accounting. Personal income, including wage and salary disbursements, is regularly estimated on a cash basis—following the usual thinking and practice of households. Ordinarily, wage and salary payments disbursed in one period but earned in the preceding period are approximately offset by those earned in the current period, but not received until the following period, so that no adjustment is made between national income and personal income. An exception occurred in 1970 due to a retroactive pay increase for Federal employees. RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR OF THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS Conceptually, the national income accounts include all the Nation's current income and production activities, and do not measure transactions—such as loans—that represent an exchange of assets rather than income or production. Loan transactions have a significant economic impact, affecting both income and output, but they are best analyzed as part of credit rather than fiscal policy. Special Analysis C (Borrowing, Debt, and Investment) and Special Analysis E (Federal Credit Programs) are both designed to facilitate a study of the financial market implications of the budget. Budget outlays are divided into two major segments—the expenditure account and the loan account. All transactions included in the loan account are excluded from the Federal sector, so this discussion focuses exclusively on how the Federal budget expenditure account relates to the Federal sector account. SPECIAL ANALYSES 15 Table A-5 shows the major differences between the budget and the Federal sector estimates. These differences are explained in the following paragraphs. Table A-5. RELATIONSHIP OF THE BUDGET TO THE FEDERAL SECTOR, NIA (in billions of dollars) Description 1971 1972 1973 actual RECEIPTS Total budget receipts Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing) Other netting and grossing Adjustment to accruals Other Federal sector, NIA receipts 188.4 197.8 220.8 3.1 1.5 1.1 -.1 3.2 1.5 .4 -.1 3.5 1.7 2.5 -.5 194.0 202.8 227.9 211.4 236.6 246.3 -1.1 -2.1 -1.0 -1.9 -1.5 3.1 1.5 -.7 .4 3.2 1.5 -.7 _* 3.5 1.7 3.0 2.7 212.4 237.8 255.9 EXPENDITURES Total budget outlays Loan account Financial transactions in the expenditure account Government contribution for employee retirement (grossing) ___ Other netting and grossing Defense timing adjustment Other Federal sector, NIA expenditures .2 * Less than $50 million. Lending and financial transactions.—The loan account in the budget includes only those domestic credit transactions where there are definite requirements for full repayment of the loans, plus all foreign loans made on commercial terms. Credit programs that do not meet these requirements are included in the expenditure account. The Federal sector, however, excludes not only all lending transactions in the loan account, but also some financial transactions counted as expenditures in the budget—such as foreign loans of the Agency for International Development, and tobacco and foreign loans in the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). CCC nonrecourse commodity loans are treated as purchases of goods under the national income accounts concept. Government contribution j or employee retirement.—The contributions of Government agencies, as employers, to retirement trust funds are deducted from total budget expenditures since these contributions represent intragovernmental transactions. However, the NIA considers Government payments for employee retirement to be part of the compensation paid to Government employees (Government purchases of goods and services); the receipts are counted as contributions for social insurance. Therefore, the Federal sector includes the Government's contributions to retirement funds in both receipts and expenditures. About 70% of these payments go to the civil service retirement fund and most of the remainder go for Federal employees insured under social security. 16 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Other netting and grossing,—The budget normally counts as receipts only income from taxation or revenues due to the exercise of governmental power to compel payment. Money received in the course of business-type transactions, therefore, is normally shown as offsets against expenditures. For instance, receipts from two major insurance programs operated by the Veterans Administration (National Service Life Insurance and U.S. Government Life Insurance) are netted against expenditures in the budget since these programs are voluntary, commercial-type activities. However, in the NIA, these are treated as receipts, in the same way as receipts from compulsory Government insurance programs. Adjustments of this type also affect total receipts and expenditures equally and thus do not alter either the budget or Federal sector surplus or deficit. Timing adjustments.—The budget records receipts at the time the cash is collected regardless of when the income is earned; expenditures (except interest) are generally recorded at the time the checks are issued. The NIA attempts to record most receipts paid by the business sector in the time period in which the income is earned rather than when taxes are actually paid; personal income taxes, however, are recorded at the time of payment by the individual taxpayer. For instance, corporate income taxes in the NIA are recorded as taxes when the profits are earned (accrued) regardless of when the cash is received by the Treasury. The principal timing adjustment on the expenditures side is for defense purchases. Procurement items (such as ships or airplanes) are recorded in the Federal sector as defense purchases at the time of delivery to the Federal Government rather than when they are fabricated or when they are paid for; work in process is counted as part of private business inventories until the articles are completed and delivered to the Government. Both the budget and the Federal sector record public debt interest when it accrues. Other.—This category includes some miscellaneous adjustments, largely for certain specialized aspects of the national income accounts, such as the purchase and sale of land, which are included in the budget but not in the national income accounts. Certain nondefense timing adjustments are included here because of the difficulty in separating them from other adjustment categories. It also includes adjustments for certain foreign currency transactions which are not included in the budget. Table A-6. FEDERAL TRANSACTIONS IN THE NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS, 1962-1973 (in billions of dollars) 196 2 RECEIPTS, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Personal taxes and nontaxes Corporate profits tax accruals Indirect business tax and nontax accruals Contributions for social insurance Total receipts, national income basis EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME BASIS Purchases of goods and services Defense Nondefense Transfer payments Domestic ("to persons") Foreign Grants-in-aid to State and local governments Net interest paid Subsidies less current surplus of Government enterprises Wage accruals less disbursements Total expenditures, national income basis Excess of receipts or expenditures (—), national income basis Estimate Actual Description IS>63 1964 1965 196 6 1967 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 47.3 22.9 14.2 19.9 49.6 23.5 15.0 22.1 50.7 25.7 15.6 23.5 51.3 27.7 16.9 24.6 57.6 31.0 15.7 28.5 64.5 31.2 15.8 35.7 71.4 33.7 17.1 38.3 90.0 37.3 18.6 44.3 93.8 32.8 19.2 48.8 87.7 32.5 20.3 53.5 91.3 33.0 19.8 58.7 98.3 40.7 20.7 68.2 104.2 110.2 115.5 120.5 132.8 147.2 160.6 190.3 194.6 194.0 202.8 227.9 60.9 (50.5) (10.4) 27.2 (25.1) (2.1) 7.6 6.8 3.8 63.4 (50.4) (13.0) 28.5 (26.4) (2.1) 8.4 7.5 3.6 65.7 (50.9) (14.7) 29.5 (27.3) (2.2) 9.8 8.1 3.8 64.4 (48.9) (15.5) 30.5 (28.3) (2.2) 10.9 8.5 4.1 71.7 (54.4) (17.3) 34.2 (31.8) (2.3) 12.7 9.0 4.5 85.3 (67.7) (17.6) 39.4 (37.2) (2.2) 14.8 9.9 5.1 94.9 (75.9) (18.9) 44.8 (42.7) (2.1) 17.8 10.9 4.1 99.3 (78.0) (21.3) 50.7 (48.5) (2.2) 19.4 12.3 4.1 99.2 (77.9) (21.3) 56.9 (54.9) (2.0) 22.6 14.0 4.6 —.1 95.3 (73.0) (22.4) 69.9 (67.5) (2.4) 27.0 14.2 5.9 .1 103.0 (73.3) (29.7) 79.8 (77.0) (2.8) 36.2 13.4 5.4 107.0 (76.7) (30.4) 87.4 (84.5) (2.9) 40.6 14.8 6.0 106.4 111.4 116.9 118.5 131.9 154.5 172.5 185.9 197.2 212.4 237.8 255.9 -2.1 -1.2 -1.4 +2.0 +.9 -7.3 -11.9 +4.4 -2.6 -18.4 -35.0 -28.0 Source.—Actual data for 1962—71 are based on the estimates prepared by the Department of Commerce. Data for 1972 and 1973 are based on estimates by the Office of Management and Buget in cooperation with the Department of Commerce. SPECIAL ANALYSIS B FUNDS IN THE BUDGET This analysis classifies budget information by the groups of funds which comprise the budget. It also presents information on the nature of receipts for the largest trust funds; and on the gross receipts and expenditures of all funds in the aggregate. BREAKDOWN OF TOTALS, BY FUND GROUPS Table B-l shows the breakdown of total budget receipts and outlays between the Federal funds and the trust funds. The two groups together, after deducting for transactions that flow between them, make up the budget totals. Table B-l. BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS, BY FUND GROUP (in millions of dollars) Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate RECEIPTS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public 137,945 -1,194 -2,966 141,987 -1,113 -3,085 157,962 -1,282 -6,063 Receipts, Federal funds 133,785 137,788 150,617 Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public 68,492 —640 -1,659 75,989 —744 -2,083 86,399 —814 -2,371 66,193 73,163 83,214 Receipts, trust funds Intragovernmental transactions Total budget receipts —11,586 —13,124 —13,046 188,392 197,827 220,785 167,811 -1,194 —2,966 186,718 -1,113 —3,085 194,128 -1,282 —6,063 163,651 182,519 186,784 61,659 -640 -1,659 70,041 -744 -2,083 75,704 -814 -2,371 59,361 67,215 72,519 OUTLAYS Federal funds: Total in fund accounts Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Outlays, Federal funds Trust funds: Total in fund accounts Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Outlays, trust funds Intragovernmental transactions Total budget outlays Budget deficit 18 —11,586 —13,124 —13,046 211,425 236,610 246,257 23,033 38,783 25,472 SPECIAL ANALYSES 19 FEDERAL FUNDS The Federal funds are those which the Government administers as owner (as distinguished from those administered in a trustee or fiduciary capacity). There are four subgroups of Federal funds—the general fund, special funds, public enterprise funds, and intragovernmental revolving and management funds. Table B-2. FEDERAL FUND RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate RECEIPTS BY SOURCE Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs duties Miscellaneous receipts Total receipts Federal funds 86,230 26,785 10,510 3,735 2,591 3,934 86,500 30,100 9,175 5,200 3,210 3,603 93,900 35,700 9,735 4,300 2,850 4,132 133,785 137,788 150,617 382 141 47 476 170 63 503 189 71 2,787 1,485 176 8,554 1,194 74,551 1,367 21,329 2,890 269 916 1,791 449 2,896 21,087 2,275 701 500 3,381 2,183 9,492 2,807 3,097 1,051 436 11,609 1,289 74,996 1,642 26,069 3,462 1,031 1,230 3,753 526 2,594 24,225 2,358 1,287 510 3,180 1,943 10,737 4,236 3,064 830 387 11,003 1,416 75,897 1,811 26,445 4,214 -1.179 1,476 3,585 558 2,541 27,839 2,422 1,541 110 3,191 1,409 11,631 4,556 250 300 775 500 163 651 182,519 186,784 -29,866 -44,731 -36,167 OUTLAYS BY AGENCY Legislative Branch The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance Economic opportunity Other Agriculture Commerce Defense-Military i Defense-Civil Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor .... _ State Transportation Treasury Atomic Energy Commission Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration PostalService Veterans Administration Other independent agencies Allowances for: Pay raises (excluding Department of Defense) Contingencies Total outlays Federal funds Excess of outlays ( - ) 1 Includes allowance for military retirement systems reform and civilian and military pay raises for the Department of Defense. 20 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Receipts and outlays.—The receipts of the general and special funds in 1973 are estimated at $151 billion, as presented in table B-2. Outlays of all the Federal funds, estimated at $187 billion, are distributed as shown. The proprietary receipts of the general fund and special funds, the interfund receipts, and the receipts of the public enterprise funds and the intragovernmental funds, have all been offset in arriving at the outlays for each agency. Obligations.—The obligations (net) for Federal funds are estimated at $201 billion for 1973, as set forth in table B-3. These transactions largely flow from the budget authority of $201 billion for the year, although in part the obligations were authorized by prior years budget authority. Table B-3. OBLIGATIONS INCURRED, NET, IN FEDERAL FUNDS (in millions of dollars) Department or other unit Legislative Branch The Judiciary-__ Executive Office of the President _ Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Office of Economic Opportunity Other Agriculture Commerce Defense-Military i Defense-Civil Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Atomic Energy Commission Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service.... Veterans Administration Civil Service Commission Export-Import Bank Federal Home Loan Bank Board Railroad Retirement Board Other independent agencies Allowances for: Pay raises (excluding the Department of Defense) Contingencies. _ _ __ Total 1971 actual __.. _ 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 388 147 48 559 172 62 474 191 71 1,953 1,095 1,311 494 8,450 1,250 72,128 1,450 22,281 3,879 308 1,133 2,311 472 2,847 21,101 2,186 1,514 696 3,331 2,242 9,602 896 761 -111 20 2,679 1,435 1,900 697 610 12,366 1,504 77,113 1,692 27,661 4,399 1,226 1,658 4,337 533 2,685 24,245 2,754 2,506 711 3,440 2,549 10,755 1,298 301 -250 21 3,113 1,929 2,169 753 -30 11,479 1,575 80,314 1,949 29,267 4,700 -1,053 1,761 3,858 574 3,390 27,866 2,583 2,529 129 3,391 2,485 11,718 1,746 260 500 800 700 192,815 200,670 166,862 -217 22 3,549 1 Includes allowances for military retirement systems reform and civilian and military pay raises for the Department of Defense. Balances of prior authority.—Table B-4 shows the balances of budget authority carried forward in Federal funds at the end of each fiscal year. To the extent that valid Government obligations have been incurred and remain unpaid, amounts sufficient to pay them may be carried over into the next year. Unobligated balances may be carried SPECIAL ANALYSES 21 Table B-4. FEDERAL FUND BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY (in millions of dollars) Department or other unit Start 1971 Obligated Unobligated End 1971 Obligated Unobligated End 1972 Obligated Unobligated End 1973 Obligated Legislative Branch 14 72 21 102 104 94 76 The Judiciary 9 15 * 17 * 18 Executive Office of the President.— 7 * 7 1 6 5 6 Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance 1,703 4 2,199 8 2,100 2,484 International development assistance. 4,079 7,532 3,865 7,907 4,224 8,075 4,922 Office of Economic Opportunity 1,147 17 923 26 569 32 492 Other 797 190 1,087 109 1,240 -23 776 Agriculture 5,855 1,526 5,754 1,424 6,518 1,501 7,000 Commerce 1.151 230 1,185 254 1,399 233 1,558 Defense—Military (including pay raises) 25,483 14,744 23,013 12,923 25,130 10,933 29,547 Defense—Civil 235 336 318 217 371 133 510 Health, Education, and Welfare 8,505 514 9,306 570 10,893 624 13,715 Housing and Urban Development 7,524 15,449 8,513 13,914 9,450 12,519 9,935 Interior 780 340 816 467 1,011 371 1,137 Justice 276 29 491 144 920 40 1,205 Labor 634 416 1,138 424 1,722 349 1,995 State 46 7 68 12 73 14 89 Transportation 1,134 948 1,082 3,343 1,173 2,716 2,022 Treasury 135 21 148 18 169 271 195 Atomic Energy Commission 1,096 336 1,008 458 1,404 19 1,565 Environmental Protection Agency.... _— 828 468 1,631 240 2,850 182 3,838 General Services Administration . 120 305 316 249 517 145 535 National Aeronautics and Space Administration.. 1,513 216 1,463 196 1,723 24 1,923 Postal Service 858 217 913 10,551 1,519 9,420 2,595 Veterans Administration.. 859 1,655 964 1,845 982 1,963 1,069 Civil Service Commission. 4 3 4 3 6 4 7 Export-Import Bank 2,903 2,215 3,848 1,458 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation 3,000 3,000 3,000 Federal Home Loan Bank Board 12 7,206 92 7,382 62 7,594 60 Other independent agencies . . 1,685 903 2,094 4,716 2,117 4,075 2,661 Allowances 210 435 Total 69,391 58,901 72,280 71,963 78,480 64,313 92,372 Unobligated 97 * 8,566 37 223 1,814 189 11,927 11 395 12,069 261 17 351 8 1,615 561 131 92 11 8,358 2,014 4 3,000 7,861 3,230 62,844 * Less than $500 thousand. forward in accordance with specific provisions of law, usually in order to permit completion of projects as contemplated at the time the appropriations were first made, but also to provide funding for activities of a continuing nature (such as business-type enterprises) or for standby emergency purposes (such as1backup for insurance of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). 1 For a more detailed review of balances, see Special Analysis G, Balances of Budget Authority. 22 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUNDS The public enterprise funds are a subgroup of Federal funds, and data thereon are included on a net basis in tables B-2 through B-4. The public enterprise funds carry on a cycle of business-type operations, primarily with the public, on behalf of the Government. Some are incorporated enterprises; others are unincorporated. The general fund usually supplies them with capital, although in a few cases they may borrow from the public. Receipts and outlays.—Receipts of public enterprise funds are estimated at $26,029 million in 1973, and gross outlays are planned to total $31,812 million (table B-5), resulting in net outlays of $5,783 million. The Postal Service fund receipts include the appropriations from the general fund, whereas prior to 1972 they did not. SPECIAL ANALYSES 23 Table B-5. PUBLIC ENTERPRISE FUND TRANSACTIONS (in millions of dollars) Applicable receipts Description Funds appropriated to the President: Foreign assistance Other Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation i Farmers Home Administration Other Commerce Defense: Military Civil (Panama Canal Company) Health, Education, and Welfare, Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association Urban renewal fund Low-rent public housing fund. Federal Housing Administration Other Interior Labor.. Transportation Treasury__.__ ...... General Services Administration Postal Service 2 Veterans Administration Other independent offices: Emergency Loan Guarantee Board Export-Import Bank Farm Credit Administration. Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation. _ Other National Credit Union Administration ...... Small Business Administration Tennessee Valley Authority.. Total Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts... Gross outlays 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 185 214 272 68 266 75 1,023 21 828 37 617 41 5,188 3,376 3,563 8,010 7,815 7,866 2,612 44 43 3,512 48 45 4,291 51 48 2,444 44 18 3,516 56 22 3,834 138 21 31 32 37 31 43 37 180 31 188 71 200 159 179 102 202 118 203 218 600 579 724 739 592 820 1,066 635 895 901 1,581 722 740 1,592 830 659 1,635 905 711 242 31 149 36 1 1,020 249 47 153 91 3 1,172 255 49 165 33 11 706 459 120 147 205 1 1,166 388 147 151 364 2 1,275 341 145 163 418 11 2 6,906 778 2 9,727 940 2 10,666 963 1 9,089 542 2 10,253 579 1 10,651 621 2 113 5 4 5 1,600 4 * 151 5 * 1,784 5 5 247 23 285 28 258 28 56 24 59 31 36 32 14 22 29 7 15 17 395 621 323 709 321 782 707 988 838 1,291 631 1,289 22,375 23,482 26,029 29,731 31,243 31,812 (19,991) (2,383) (18,853) (4,629) (21,859) (4,170) •Less than $500 thousand. Receipts include advances from foreign assistance and special export programs of $703 million in 21971, $1,320 million in 1972, and $895 million in 1973. Receipts include grants from the general fund of $ 1,418 million in 1972 and $ 1,424 million in 1973. 1 24 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 TRUST FUNDS The trust funds are administered in a fiduciary capacity by the Government. They include one subgroup, trust revolving funds, which, like the public enterprise funds, carry on a businesslike cycle of operations and are normally stated on a net basis (outlays less receipts). Cash operations.—Trust fund receipts are estimated at $83 billion in 1973, with outlays planned at $73 billion, as shown in table B-6. The transactions of the Federal old-age and survivors and disability insurance funds are far larger than any other trust funds. Table B-6. OUTLAYS AND RECEIPTS OF TRUST FUNDS (in millions of dollars) Outlays Description Funds to which receipts are appropriated: Federal old-age and survivors and disability insurance trust funds Health insurance trust funds_ Unemployment trust fund.__ Railroad employees retirementfunds.. Federal employees retirement funds Airport and airway trust funds Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance funds. Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds (table B-7) Subtotal Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Total 1971 ctual 1972 estimate Receipts 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 35,874 7,875 6,132 40,053 8,974 7,316 45,514 10,436 6,127 38,892 8,534 4,321 41,593 10,627 5,614 46,242 15,347 5,786 1,919 2,113 2,098 1,880 2,035 2,181 3,259 3,659 4,168 5,851 6,516 7,271 287 4,689 1,377 4,782 596 5,027 1,184 5,729 1,569 5,557 756 6,052 970 743 1,200 861 1,500 575 966 784 1,350 820 1,650 831 294 323 325 351 308 283 -382 -618 -663 61,659 -640 70,041 -744 75,704 -814 68,492 -640 75,989 -744 86,399 -814 -1,659 -2,083 -2,371 -1,659 -2,083 -2,371 59,361 67,215 72,519 66,193 73,163 83,214 This group of funds reflects an excess of receipts of $6 to $11 billion each year, as follows (in millions of dollars): Total receipts, trust funds Total outlays, trust funds Excess of receipts, trust funds 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 66,193 59,361 73,163 67,215 83,214 72,519 * 6,833 5,948 10,695 1 Excludes $100 million of collections on the redemption of securities issued by the Federal National Mortgage Association which were owned by trust funds at the time the Association became privately owned in 1969. SPECIAL ANALYSES 25 The activities of the trust revolving fund subgroup are shown in table B-7. These funds include those used by the Civil Service Commission to buy insurance for Government employees. Table B-7. TRUST REVOLVING FUND TRANSACTIONS (in millions of dollars) Applicable receipts Description Civil Service Commission (employees' life insurance and health benefits) Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation All other trust revolving funds__ Total trust funds1 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,562 1,838 2,203 1,372 1,644 1,974 441 131 477 136 494 143 256 122 54 135 61 142 2,133 2,451 2,840 1,751 1,833 2,177 (1,360) (773) (1,477) (974) (1,711) (1,129) revolving Receipts from the public Receipts from other accounts... 1 Gross outlays 1971 actual Excludes right-of-way revolving fund which is a part of the highway trust funds. Receipts by funds.—Table B-8 presents information, classifying the trust fund receipts by major fund, and, for each such fund, by source. Table B-8. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation (mainly social insurance taxes and contributions) Subtotal Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds Health insurance trust funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Proposed legislation (mainly social insurance taxes and contributions) Subtotal health insurance trust funds Unemployment trust fund: Social insurance taxes and contributions _ Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Subtotal unemployment trust fund. 1971 actual 35,845 1,942 640 466 38,892 6,127 200 87 2,119 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 39,959 2,111 657 538 46,849 2,406 774 526 -1,671 -4,313 41,593 46,242 6,547 197 85 1,928 7,501 180 100 1,950 1,871 5,616 8,534 10,627 15,347 3,674 637 10 4,964 637 13 5,136 637 13 4,321 5,614 5,786 26 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table B-8. TRUST FUND RECEIPTS (in millions of dollars)—Continued [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately!—Continued Description Railroad employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities.* Receipts from other trust funds Other (mainly receipts of special Federal payments) Subtotal railroad employees retirement funds Federal employees retirement funds: Social insurance taxes and contributions Interest on Federal securities Federal payment as employer for employee retirement (including payment on prior year liabilities) Other receipts Proposed legislation (Federal payment as employer for employee retirement) Subtotal Federal employees retirement funds 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 980 251 626 22 1,023 272 720 21 1,110 286 764 22 1,880 2,035 2,181 1,950 1,235 2,004 1,432 2,075 1,635 2,663 3 3,003 14 3,548 12 63 5,851 6,516 7,271 563 621 676 827 66 752 4 1,184 1,569 756 Highway trust funds: Excise taxes _. Interest on Federal securities Other receipts Proposed legislation: Excise taxes 5,542 184 4 5,349 200 8 5,518 235 4 295 Subtotal highway trust funds 5,729 5,557 6,052 Foreign military sales trust fund 966 1,350 1,650 Veterans life insurance trust funds: Interest on Federal securities 302 321 337 482 499 494 784 820 831 351 308 283 68,492 —640 -1,659 66,193 75,989 —744 -2,083 73,163 86,399 —814 -2,371 83,214 Airport and airway trust fund: Excise taxes Special Federal payment Proposed legislation: Federal payment Subtotal airport and airway trust fund Other receipts Subtotal veterans life insurance trust funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Subtotal Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Total receipts SPECIAL ANALYSES 27 Outlays by funds.—Corresponding information on outlays, classifying the data for the larger funds, is found in table B-9. Table B-9. T R U S T FUND OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) [Amounts under proposed legislation are shown separately] Description Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Payments to other trust funds Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation (mainly benefit payments) Subtotal Federal old-age, survivors, and disability insurance trust funds 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 34,482 626 765 38,502 720 818 13 40,407 764 843 3,500 35,874 40,053 45,514 Health insurance trust funds: Benefit payments Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation (mainly benefit payments) 7,477 398 8,505 467 2 9,405 511 520 Subtotal health insurance trust funds 7,875 8,974 10,436 Unemployment trust fund: Withdrawals for benefit payments Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation: Administrative expenses 5, 324 808 6,434 862 20 5,255 872 Subtotal unemployment trust fund 6,132 7,316 6,127 Railroad employees retirement funds: Benefit payments and claims Administrative expenses and other Proposed legislation (mainly benefit payments) 1,889 30 2,084 29 * 2,069 29 1,919 2,113 2,098 3,072 174 12 3,463 188 8 3,960 199 9 3,259 3,659 4,168 287 4,689 970 743 294 —382 1,377 4, 782 1,200 861 323 —618 596 5,027 1,500 575 325 —663 Subtotal railroad employees retirement funds Federal employees retirement: Benefit payments and claims Refunds to former employees Administrative expenses and other Subtotal Federal employees retirement Airport and airways trust fund Highway trust funds (mainly grants to States) Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance trust funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds (table B-7) Subtotal Interfund transactions Proprietary receipts from the public Total outlays *Less than $500 thousand. 61,659 —640 —1,659 70,041 —744 —2,083 75,704 —814 —2,371 59,361 67,215 72,519 28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Balances of the trust funds.—The balances of the trust funds continue to increase, as shown in the following end-of-year figures (in millions of dollars): 1970 actual Open book balances __ Investments in U.S. securities: Public debt Agency debt Total 4,528 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 6.043 6,571 7,223 90.654 2.051 96,457 1.666 102,201 1,341 112,246 1,341 97.234 104.166 110,114 120.809 A summary of the balances by fund is presented in table B-10. The amounts include both open book balances with Treasury and investments 1in U.S. securities. Part of the balances is obligated, part unobligated. The balances on an authorization basis exceed the cash balances because for a few accounts budget authority is not the same as receipts; these differences are listed in the note appended to the table. Table B-10. T R U S T FUND BALANCES (in millions of dollars) Description Federal old-age and survivors and disability insurance trust funds Health insurance trust funds Unemployment trust fund Railroad retirement accounts Federal employees retirement funds Airport and airway trust fund Highway trust funds Foreign military sales trust fund Veterans life insurance funds Other trust funds (nonrevolving) Trust revolving funds Total As of June 30 1970 tctual 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 37.696 2,735 13,117 4,843 22,497 2,614 468 7,143 588 5,534 40.755 3,393 11,293 4,857 25,109 897 3,654 464 7,184 645 5,916 42,295 5,046 9,565 4,805 27.966 1,088 4,428 614 7,143 628 588 6,534 7,197 97,234 104,166 110,114 120,809 43.023 9,957 9,202 4,911 31,069 1,248 5,453 764 7,399 Note.— The balances shown here cover the amounts on deposit with Treasury, and the U.S. securities held. In addition, certain funds have authority to obligate in advance of receiving moneys, and to borrow from the public. The reconciliation is as follows: Balance available on an authorization basis 109,860 116,678 123,902 134,612 Unnnanced contract authorizations: Airport and airway trust fund —840 —780 —688 —588 Highway trust funds -12,478 -13,638 -14,758 -15,669 Foreign military sales trust fund -1,962 —2,202 -3,132 -3,682 Office of Saline Water -3 -3 Unappropriated receipts: Available as needed, on an indefinite basis __ 18 22 17 18 Available for appropriation by Congress: Soldiers' Home permanent fund 111 108 105 102 Airport and airway trust fund 387 271 588 Highway trust funds 2,522 3,586 4,391 5,423 Retained as permanent endowment 6 6 6 6 Balance available on a cash basis 1 97,234 104,166 110,114 120,809 For an analysis distinguishing obligated and unobligated balances, see table G-4 in Special Analysis G, Balances of Budget Authority. SPECIAL ANALYSES 29 For 1973, as in many recent years, the largest net investments are expected to be those of the trust funds established by the Social Security Act as amended. FLOW OF GOVERNMENT-ADMINISTERED FUNDS Table B - l l gives gross receipts from and payments to the public (except borrowing and repayments of borrowing) for all Governmentadministered funds, other than the deposit funds which are in the nature of suspense accounts. The table differs from the budget primarily with respect to grossing and netting. The amounts which are grossed here, but treated as offsets elsewhere, are as follows (in millions of dollars): Receipts regularly offset in individual accounts: Receipts of public enterprise funds (table B-5) Receipts of trust revolving funds (table B-7) Reimbursements to other appropriations and funds: Department of Defense—Military Other agencies Receipts offset in the budget by agency and function (table 13) Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 19,991 1,360 18,853 1,477 21,859 1.711 2,521 1,206 2,520 1,167 2,580 1,312 4,874 5,423 8,772 29,952 29,440 36,234 A second difference from the budget is the distribution here of the transactions treated elsewhere as unclassified adjustments to outlays. The third difference lies in the inclusion here of three Governmentadministered funds which are outside the budget totals, but treated as annexed budgets in the appendix to the budget. The figures used for these funds are (in millions of dollars): Receipts Payments Excess of receipts or payments ( - ) 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 61 28 1,459 2,650 3,997 5,031 33 -1,190 -1,034 30 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table B-11. GROSS FLOW OF GOVERNMENT ADMINISTERED FUNDS (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate RECEIPTS BY SOURCE Individual income taxes Corporation income taxes Employment taxes Unemployment insurance Premiums for insurance and retirement Excise taxes Estate and gift taxes Customs... _ Other receipts from the public: General and special funds Public enterprise funds Trust funds (excluding trust revolving funds) Trust revolving funds _ Reimbursements to appropriations and other funds Government-administered funds outside the budget Subtotal other receipts Total receipts from the public. _ _ 86,230 26,785 41,699 3,674 3,205 16,614 3,735 2,591 86,500 30,100 46,367 4,364 3,361 15,200 5,200 3,210 93,900 35,700 55,113 5,016 3,554 16,300 4,300 2,850 7,052 19,991 1,679 1,360 3,727 61 6,845 18,853 2,104 1,477 3,687 1,459 10,432 21,859 2,391 1,711 3,892 3,997 33,870 218,404 34,425 228,727 44,284 261,016 82,337 5,377 3,435 11,958 5,338 18,920 5,909 8,889 15,217 55,293 11,152 15,179 2,401 _ _ 83,026 7,227 3,240 12,625 6,925 20,781 7,151 10,390 17,920 64,812 12,732 15,305 3,766 2,250 84,271 9,372 3,225 13,697 7,451 21,376 8,521 11,541 19,309 69,129 13,375 15,952 4,029 5,000 250 300 775 500 241,404 268,700 287,522 23,000 39,973 26,506 PAYMENTS BY FUNCTION National defense (including DOD pay raises) International affairs and finance Space research and technology Agriculture and rural development Natural resources and environment Commerce and transportation Community development and housing Education and manpower Health Income security Veteran benefits and services Interest General government. General revenue sharing Allowances for: Pay raises (excluding DOD) Contingencies Total payments to the public Excess of payments „ SPECIAL ANALYSIS C BORROWING, DEBT, AND INVESTMENT The major fiscal responsibilities of the Federal Government include not only the collection of revenue and the disbursement of cash necessary to finance the day-to-day operation of Government programs, but also: • The borrowing of additional cash to meet requirements not covered by current revenue and to refinance maturing debt; • The management and investment of balances which trust funds and other accounts do not currently need for outlays; and • The provision of advice and assistance, including Government guarantees, for borrowing by certain non-Federal borrowers. This analysis summarizes current developments and trends in Federal borrowing and in agency investment in U.S. Government securities. It also discusses the size and growth of the Federal debt and of the interest on the Federal debt, the statutory limitation on the Federal debt, and expected developments in borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises. This analysis concludes with a brief description of the trends in Federal and federally assisted borrowing. Special Analysis E examines the related subject of Federal credit programs, including direct loans, loans by Government-sponsored enterprises, and Government-guaranteed loans. The factors in both Special Analyses C and E are significant in determining the impact on financial markets of the programs contained in the 1973 Federal budget. BORROWING AND REPAYING DEBT The Federal Government borrows for two principal reasons. First, it sells debt to the public in order to finance budget deficits. Second, it sells debt to the Government agencies that accumulate surpluses in separate funds, primarily in trust funds, required by law to be invested in Federal Government securities. The gross Federal debt includes both the debt held by the public and the debt held by the agencies. Almost all the gross Federal debt has been issued by the Treasury, but a small portion has been issued by certain Government agencies. Since Treasury borrowing from the agencies is an internal transaction between two funds both within the Government itself, only borrowing from the public directly affects financial markets. Borrowing from the public—whether by the Treasury or by an agency—has a significant impact on financial markets and thereby on the economy, and it is consequently an important concern of Federal fiscal policy. Table C-l summarizes Federal borrowing from 1971 through 1973. Total Federal borrowing net of the refunding of securities, or the rise in gross Federal debt, was $26.9 billion in 1971. The net borrowing from the public was $19.4 billion, of which $7.8 billion was borrowed from the Federal Reserve System and $11.6 billion from the general public (i.e., commercial banks, other financial institutions, and 31 32 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 individuals, both domestic and foreign). Net borrowing from the public is expected to be $39.5 billion in 1972 and $27.5 billion in 1973. The net borrowing from the agencies was $7.4 billion in 1971 and is expected to be $6.8 billion in 1972 and $9.9 billion in 1973. By the end of 1973, 75% of the gross Federal debt is expected to be held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) and the remaining 25% by the agencies. Ninety-seven percent of the gross Federal debt will have been issued by the Treasury. Table C-1. NET CHANGES IN FEDERAL DEBT (in millions of dollars) Description Gross Federal debt: Public debt (issued by Treasury) Agency debt (issued by agencies) Gross Federal debt! Less debt held by Government agencies: Public debt Agency debt Debt held by Government agencies Total, debt held by the public Debt held by the Federal Reserve System Debt held by the general public Increase or decrease ( - ) Debt outstanding 1973 end 1973 estimate estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 27,211 -347 46,495 -178 36,126 1,255 479,926 13,239 26,864 46,317 37,381 493,165 7,718 -302 7,168 -351 9,900 -19 119,956 1,881 7,417 6,817 9,881 121,837 19,448 39,500 27,500 "371,328 7,804 11,644 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA=Not available. Excludes the $825 million of special non-interest-bearing notes issued to the International Monetary Fund. 1 Table C-2 shows how borrowing from the public is related to the budget deficit. In 1971, the deficit was $23.0 billion, of which the major part, $19.4 billion, was financed by borrowing from the public. The remaining $3.6 billion of the deficit was financed largely by an increase in the sum of several monetary liabilities, which include checks outstanding, accrued interest payable on the public debt, deposit funds,1 and miscellaneous accounts. A very small portion was financed by seigniorage (the value of minted coins less the cost of their production) and other means. A decrease in the Government's holdings of cash and other monetary assets is another means of financing the deficit, but in 1971 these holdings remained virtually constant. The extent to which the deficit can be financed by means other than borrowing from the public is very limited, and in some years an increase in cash assets or a decrease in monetary liabilities is large enough that the other means of financing the deficit are negative in total. In such years the Government must borrow from the public to finance the changes in these assets or liabilities as well as to finance the budget deficit. During 1972 and 1973, as in 1971, the deficit is expected to be financed principally by borrowing from the public. 1 Most deposit funds are Government liabilities temporarily being held as deposits—e.g.. State income taxes withheld from Federal employees' salaries but not yet paid to the States. SPECIAL ANALYSES 33 Table C-2. MEANS OF FINANCING THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT (in millions of dollars) Description Budget deficit 1971 1972 1973 actual estimate estimate 23,033 38,783 25,472 19,448 39,500 27,500 Means of financing the deficit: Borrowing from the public Other: Decrease or increase (—) in cash and monetary assets Increase or decrease (—) in liabilities for: Checks outstanding, etc.1 Deposit fund balances Seigniorage on coins Other Subtotal, means of financing other than borrowing from the public Total, means of financing * 2,164 88 -5 940 -125 -1,501 378 540 532 2 104 3-1,220 3 - 1 , 0 5 4 3,585 -717 -2,028 23,033 38,783 25,472 *Less than $500 thousand. 1 Includes military payment certificates, accrued interest (less unamortized discount) payable on2 public debt, and, as offsetting assets, certain collections in transit. This consists of the collections resulting from the redemption of securities owned by Government-administered funds which had been issued by the Federal National Mortgage Association, now privately owned, at the time when it was Government-owned and therefore included within the3 budget totals. This consists of the net disbursements of the Export-Import Bank (a wholly Government-owned corporation) beginning Aug. 17, 1971, when it was removed by statute from the budget totals. Borrowing from the agencies is closely related to the surpluses of the trust funds, which, as shown in table C-6, own most of the Government agencies' holdings of Federal debt. The relationship between agency borrowing and trust fund surpluses can be seen by comparing the purchase of Federal debt by the agencies, given in table C-l, with the aggregate surplus of the trust funds, presented immediately after table B-6 of Special Analysis B. SIZE AND GROWTH OF FEDERAL DEBT Gross Federal debt has risen substantially over most of the past four decades from about $16 billion in 1929 to $409.5 billion at the end of fiscal year 1971. Table C-3 presents the detail of this change since 1954 and shows that a sizeable part of the increase is held in Federal Government accounts (primarily trust funds) rather than being owed to the public. From the end of 1954 to the end of 1971, gross Federal debt rose by 51% while Federal debt held by the public rose by 36%. Federal debt held by the private institutions and individuals who comprise the general public rose still less, by 20%—an annual compound rate of growth of 1.1% over the 17 years—because the Federal Reserve System bought a large quantity of Federal debt, thereby expanding the reserves of the banking system and providing for growth in the Nation's money stock. Digitized for480-700 FRASER O—72 34 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table C-3—COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN FEDERAL DEBT AND GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (in billions of dollars) Debt outstanding, end of year Held by Fiscal year 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972estimate 1973 estimate Gross Federal debt 1 270.8 274.4 272.8 272.4 279.7 287.8 290.9 292.9 303.3 310.8 316.8 323.2 329.5 341.3 369.8 367.1 382.6 409.5 455.8 493.2 The public Federal Government accounts Total 46.3 47.8 50.5 52.9 53.3 52.8 53.7 54.3 54.9 56.3 59.2 61.5 64.8 73.8 79.1 87.7 97.7 105.1 112.0 121.8 224.5 226.6 222.2 219.4 226.4 235.0 237.2 238.6 248.4 254.5 257.6 261.6 264.7 267.5 290.6 279.5 284.9 304.3 343.8 371.3 Federal Reserve System 25.0 23.6 23.8 23.0 25.4 26.0 26.5 27.3 29.7 32.0 34.8 39.1 42.2 46.7 52.2 54.1 57.7 65.5 NA NA GNP Debt held by public as percent of GNP The general public 199.5 362.1 203.0 378.6 198.5 409.4 196.4 431.3 200.9 440.3 209.0 469.1 210.7 495.2 211.4 506.5 218.7 542.1 222.4 573.4 222.8 612.2 222.5 654.2 222.5 721.2 220.8 769.8 238.4 826.1 225.4 897.6 227.2 953.2 238.8 1,008.2 NA 1,089.5 NA NA 62.0 59.9 54.3 50.9 51.4 50.1 47.9 47.1 45.8 44.4 42.1 40.0 36.7 34.8 35.2 31.1 29.9 30.2 31.6 NA NA=Not available. Excludes the special non-interest-bearing notes issued to the International Monetary Fund and international lending agencies. 1 During the depression of the 1930's and during World War II, Federal debt held by the public rose greatly, not only in absolute amount but also, as shown in the following chart, as a proportion of total net indebtedness: Federal, State and local, and private. Whereas Federal debt held by the public was only 9% of total net debt at the end of calendar year 1929, it was 62% by the end of calendar year 1945. Federal borrowing was large, particularly during World War II, and borrowing by other sectors was restricted by low incomes and poor creditworthiness during the depression and b}^ controls and scarcities during the war. In every year since 1945, however, private debt has increased as a proportion of total debt and Federal debt held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System) has decreased as a proportion of the total. State and local government debt has risen in amount every year and has risen in proportion to total debt for the period as a whole, although since 1963 its proportion has been about constant. From the end of calendar year 1953 to the end of 1970, Federal debt held by the public rose 33%, State and local government debt rose 367%, and private debt rose 320%. By the end of calendar year 1970, Federal debt held by the public was only 17% of total debt. As a result of these trends, Federal debt and borrowing, although still significant, have become relatively much smaller influences in the financial markets. 35 SPECIAL ANALYSES Percent Distribution of Indebtedness 1940 1930 End of Calendar Year 1950 1960 1970 1 Federal indebtedness is the Federal debt held by the public (including the Federal Reserve System). During this same period the Federal debt has decreased relative to gross national product. As shown in table C-3, debt held by the public equaled 62% of gross national product at the end of 1954 but declined steadily to 30% by the end of 1971. The interest cost of the debt may be more significant than the amount of debt for some types of comparison designed to measure the importance of Federal indebtedness. The interest cost of the debt held by the public has risen much faster than the debt itself, due to a strong upward trend since World War II in the interest rates that must be paid on new borrowings and on refunded debt. Between 1954 and 1971 the Federal debt held by the public grew 36%, but, as shown in table C-4, the interest paid to the public more than tripled. For this period as a whole, interest, payments to the public grew faster than gross national product. In the first 5 years, 1954-58, interest was equal to 1.40% of gross national product, whereas by the last 5 years, 1967-71, the proportion had risen slightly to 1.58%. On the other hand, the proportion of budget outlays devoted to paying interest on the debt held by the public did not show any trend. The proportion was 7.64% in 1954-58 and at 7.57% was virtually the same in 1967-71. 36 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table C-4. COMPARISON OF TRENDS IN INTEREST ON FEDERAL DEBT, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, AND BUDGET OUTLAYS (in billions of dollars) 1nterest on 1.he gross Federal debt Interest on debt held by the public as a percent of Paic1 to Fiscal year 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Total Federal Government accounts The public Total 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8 1.2 .2 .3 .4 4 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 7.8 9.5 9.3 9.5 4 5 6.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.7 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.6 14.2 15.6 17.7 20.0 21.6 22.1 23.4 6 6 .8 9 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.4 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.7 12.7 14.2 15.6 16.3 16.3 17.1 Federal Reserve System l 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 .0 .0 .0 .1 .2 .4 .7 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.7 NA NA The general public GNP Budget outlays 2 4.7 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.6 1.43 1.37 1.36 1.38 44 5.6 7.1 M 7.31 7.56 7.91 7.74 7.68 6.96 8.74 7.97 7.40 7.78 7.80 8.31 7.77 7.39 7.09 7.68 7.95 7.73 6.88 6.93 6.8 6.9 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.7 10 3 11.3 12.2 17.6 NA NA 54 46 51 .51 .50 .45 1.52 1 54 1 58 1 64 1.62 1.49 NA N A = N o t available. 1 Estimated. 2 Budget outlays for 1954-73 are given in the Budget, part 8, table 21. Since the end of World War II the composition of the Federal debt has changed, with an increasingly large proportion of Federal securities having a relatively short maturity. One contributing factor, although by no means the sole cause, was the statutory ceiling of 4%% on interest rates payable on marketable Treasury securities whose maturities exceeded 7 years 2 (marketable securities currently constitute about four-fifths of the debt held by the public). Because long-term market rates have been higher than i}i% in recent years, the ceiling prevented the Treasury from selling long-term marketable obligations after 1965. The ceiling thereby helped to increase the gross dollar volume of offerings each year. Since 1965, the average maturity of Treasury marketable debt has declined from about 5% years to about 3K years, and the amount of debt that must be refunded each year now exceeds $100 billion. This restriction on Treasury borrowing, enacted in 1918, was relaxed in March 1971 by a law which allowed the Treasury to issue up to $10 billion of long-term bonds at interest rates above 4%%. Subsequently during calendar year 1971, $2.0 billion of bonds were sold at interest rates averaging 2 Until 1967 the ceiling applied to marketable Treasury securities whose maturities exceeded 5 years. SPECIAL 37 ANALYSES BORROWING BY FEDERAL AGENCIES 3 A few Government agencies are authorized to sell their own debt instruments to the public or to other Government agencies and funds. This agency borrowing is part of the gross Federal debt. The disbursement of such borrowed money is a budget outlay, and the authorization to borrow is budget authority. Table C-5. AGENCY BORROWING * (in millions of dollars) Description Borrowing from the public: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2 Rural Electrification Administration Defense Health, Education, and Welfare2 Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans 2 Public facility loans 2 Federal Housing Administration Housing for the elderly 2 Government National Mortgage Association 2_ Postal Service Veterans Administration 2 Export-Import Bank 3 Small Business Administration 2 Tennessee Valley Authority All other Total borrowing from the public Borrowing from other funds: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration2 Defense Health, Education, and Welfare 2 Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans 2 Public facility loans 2 Federal Housing Administration Housing for the elderly 2 Government National Mortgage Association 2_ Veterans Administration 2 Small Business Administration 2 Tennessee Valley Authority Increase or decrease (—) in debt 1971 actual 1972 estimate -72 -109 -78 -6 -690 -5 -30 -3 -93 1973 estimate Debt outstanding end 1973 estimate -78 -4 -23 45 -84 -2 330 45 1,293 133 -271 -4 57 -27 -2 64 -143 -106 732 -79 384 250 -87 107 -141 595 3 -82 250 -260 926 -44 510 3 309 96 538 66 874 500 767 3,657 282 2,455 14 -45 173 1,274 11,358 -9 -14 4 -55 -15 -2 -15 168 199 65 -270 3 -1 2 -136 -2 -6 12 7 -12 -24 -4 -48 -12 -70 —5 . 156 47 59 32 479 523 154 Total borrowing from other funds. -302 -351 -19 1,881 Total agency borrowing * —347 -178 1,255 13,239 *Less than $500 thousand. Excludes agency borrowing from Treasury. Certificates of participation in loans. Reclassified by statute outside the budget totals as of Aug. 17, 1971. 1 2 3 3 The Export-Import Bank, which was reclassified by statute outside the budget totals as of Aug. 17, 1971, is included in borrowing by Federal agencies because its debt remains part of gross Federal debt. 38 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Net changes in outstanding agency debt were shown in total in table C-l and are shown by agency in table C-5. For 1971 and 1972 the repayment of agency debt exceeds new agency borrowing by $0.3 billion and $0.2 billion, respectively, and for 1973 new borrowing is expected to be larger by $1.3 billion. About a third of the agency debt of $13.2 billion estimated to be outstanding on June 30, 1973, will consist of $4.5 billion in certificates of participation in pools of loans issued in prior years by the Government National Mortgage Association, as trustee on behalf of the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Veterans Administration, and the Small Business Administration. The issuance of certificates of participation was discontinued after 1968. Almost all the rest of the agency debt consists of notes sold by the Export-Import Bank, family housing mortgages issued by the Department of Defense and the Coast Guard, revenue bonds issued by the Tennessee Valley Authority, bonds sold by the Postal Service, and debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration in settlement of some of the insurance claims arising from Federal mortgage insurance. The Treasury provides capital to business-type Government enterprises both in the form of capital stock and in the form of "debt." Since these two instruments are the same in substance and since it would be misleading to double count the agency borrowing from the Treasury and the resulting Treasury borrowing from the public, the amounts of "loans" are shown as part of Government ownership equity on the enterprise statements of financial condition in the Budget Appendix. For the same reasons, these amounts are excluded from figures on agency "borrowing" and "debt" throughout the budget. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES Trust funds and some public enterprise funds accumulate cash in excess of current requirements in order to meet future claims and demands. Such temporary cash surpluses are usually invested in Treasury debt, or, to a very small extent, in agency securities. Neither purchases nor redemptions of these securities are counted as budget outlays or receipts. As shown in table C—6, net investment by Government agencies and trust funds in Government securities was $7.4 billion in 1971 and is estimated to be $6.8 billion in 1972 and $9.9 billion in 1973. The total holdings of Federal securities by Government agencies and trust funds will reach an estimated $121.8 billion by June 30, 1973. Altogether they will hold 25% of the gross Federal debt. Two major trust funds—the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Fund and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Insurance Fund—will account for 52% of these holdings, and the other trust funds will account for 4 1 % more. 39 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table C-6. AGENCY INVESTMENT IN FEDERAL SECURITIES (in millions of dollars) In Description Investment in public debt (issued by Treasury): Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors ins. trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical ins. trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Other Interior: Indian tribal funds Labor: Unemployment trust fund Transportation: Highway trust fund Treasury: Exchange Stabilization fund Postal Service Veterans Administration: National service life insurance fund Other trust funds Other Civil Service Commission: Civil Service retirement and disability fund Other trust funds Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.: Trust fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Railroad Retirement Board: Trust funds All other in holdings 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Holdings end 1973 estimate 1,309 1,278 397 244 710 630 1,530 203 306 221 4,536 257 31,786 6,879 9,045 717 -7 222 18 -175 -1,647 1,033 1,378 180 -257 10 -8 -1,628 785 160 206 15 -17 -363 1,025 1,333 -833 1,323 844 102 1 9,150 5,445 1,390 500 153 -39 59 35 -44 57 280 -26 61 6,383 689 601 2,735 232 180 212 101 37 2,943 197 431 82 -58 38 3,045 225 434 222 102 43 30,240 1,569 5,526 2,805 4,689 272 7,718 7,168 9,900 119,956 -6 -6 -35 -15 -20 -50 -50 135 -31 -4 -16 -100 -100 -70 -25 310 -100 375 144 50 Total investments in agency debt -35 -16 -110 -302 Total agency investments in Federal securities. 7,417 Total investments in public debt Investment in agency debt: Agriculture: CCC Health, Education, and Welfare: Federal old-age and survivors ins. trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association Interior: Indian tribal funds Labor: Unemployment trust fund Veterans Administration: National service life insurance fund Civil Service Commission: Civil Service retirement and disability fund Federal Home Loan Bank Board: FSLIC Railroad Retirement Board: Trust funds -351 6,817 -6 53 ______ 555 __ -5 -19 204 139 1 1,881 9,881 121,837 40 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 LIMITATIONS ON FEDERAL DEBT Since enactment of the Second Liberty Bond Act in 1917, a general statutory limitation has been placed on the amount of certain types of Federal debt that can be outstanding. The limit currently applies to the total of: • All public debt issued by the Treasury since September 1917, whether held by the Government or by the public; • Agency debt in the form of participation certificates issued during 1968 under the Participation Sales Act of 1966; and • Other debt issued by Federal agencies (and the District of Columbia Armory Board) which, according to explicit statutes, is fully guaranteed as to principal and interest by the United States. The statutory limit based on this definition is $430 billion for the period beginning March 17, 1971, and ending on June 30, 1972. This limit includes a temporary increase of $30 billion, which expires on June 30, 1972, after which the permanent limit of $400 billion becomes effective. The outstanding debt subject to limitation is compared, in table C—7, with the gross Federal debt and the Federal debt held by the public in 1971, 1972, and 1973. The debt subject to limitation is almost as large as the gross Federal debt. Table C-7. DEBT SUBJECT TO GENERAL STATUTORY LIMITATION (in millions of dollars) End of year Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Federal debt held by the public 304,328 343,828 371,328 Add: Federal securities held by Government agencies 105,140 111, 956 121,837 409,467 455, 784 493,165 627 625 625 1,683 2,625 1,355 4,540 1,590 250 2,732 1,945 3,455 8 10,838 11 10, 608 1,492 500 3,657 2,455 3,345 45 14 12,133 Federal debt subject to statutory limitation._ Add: District of Columbia Stadium bonds Special notes held by International Monetary Fund 398,630 445,177 481,033 20 825 20 825 20 825 Total debt subject to statutory limitation 399,475 Gross Federal debt Deduct: Public debt not subject to limitation Agency debt not subject to general limitation: Department of Defense Postal Service Export-Import Bank Tennessee Valley Authority Participation certificatesl Rural Electrification Administration Other Total Federal debt not subject to limitation 446,022 481,878 1 Certificates of participation issued by Government National Mortgage Association as trustee (or 5 departments and agencies (excluding those issued during 1968). SPECIAL ANALYSES 41 The Federal debt held by the public is projected to increase by $39.5 billion in 1972 and by $27.5 billion in 1973. The debt subject to statutory limitation is expected to rise by $46.5 billion and $35.9 billion, respectively. The greater growth in the debt subject to limitation is due primarily to the investment in Federal debt by Government trust funds and other agencies. Their holdings are not part of the debt held by the public but are nevertheless almost all subject to the statutory limitation. Almost the only agency debt subject to the general statutory limitation, in addition to the participation certificates sold in 1968, is the debentures issued by the Federal Housing Administration. The remaining agency debt, however, in most cases requires explicit statutory authorization. For example, outstanding revenue bonds issued by the Tennessee Valley Authority are currently limited to $5 billion. BORROWING BY GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES 4 Six Government-sponsored enterprises, in which there is currently no Government investment, borrow under Government auspices. The transactions of these enterprises are not included within the Federal budget. The borrowing programs of all six enterprises are subject to Federal supervision. All, in addition, consult the Treasury Department, either by law or by custom, in planning their market offerings. The Federal National Mortgage Association and the Federal home loan banks are required to obtain Treasury approval of the terms and timing of specific offerings, and the Treasury Department is authorized to purchase limited amounts of their obligations. Four of the enterprises are systems of regional lending institutions that pool their borrowings. In addition to their Federal sponsorship, all of the established enterprises have a history of successful financial performance. Hence, despite the absence of Federal guarantees, the obligations of these enterprises are sold at interest rates only slightly higher than those prevailing on Treasury issues. As shown in table C-8, all but one of these Government-sponsored enterprises borrowed more than they repaid in 1971, and each anticipates net borrowing in 1972 and 1973. Total net new borrowing by the six Government-sponsored enterprises as a whole is expected to be $8.6 billion in 1972 and $9.2 billion in 1973. The large increases in expected borrowing primarily reflect strong support for the housing market to be provided by the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal home loan banks, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation. Special Analysis E discusses the lending by these enterprises. 4 Although the Export-Import Bank was reclassified by statute outside the budget totals, it remains Government owned and therefore is not classified as a Government-sponsored enterprise. Its debt is included in gross Federal debt. 42 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table C-8. NET CHANGES IN DEBT OF GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES (in millions of dollars) Increase or decrease ( - ) Description 1971 actual Housing and Urban Development: Federal National Mortgage Association. _ Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Total 1,830 1972 estimate 5,527 1973 estimate Debt outstanding end 1973 estimate 4,312 24,835 228 776 545 174 861 591 199 991 605 2,185 7,595 8,026 -2,551 615 739 700 1,478 1,585 9,546 2,900 9,170 55,087 1,503 8,592 The administration has proposed creating certain new Governmentsponsored enterprises to assist in the financing of expenditures for purposes not supported by the present enterprises. TOTAL FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED BORROWING The total of Federal and federally assisted borrowing includes not only borrowing by the Federal Government and by Governmentsponsored enterprises but also guarantees, in whole or in part, of borrowing by specific groups of non-Federal borrowers. These programs are discussed in Special Analysis E. Table C-9 summarizes the developments in Federal borrowing and in the two categories of federally assisted borrowing—borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises and Government guaranteed borrowing—together with the adjustments necessary to eliminate double counting. The following chart depicts the trends in Federal and federally assisted borrowing between 1962 and 1973. Federal borrowing from the public is expected to be $39.5 billion in 1972 and $27.5 billion in 1973. Total Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public is expected to be $66.5 billion in 1972 and $58.5 billion in 1973. 43 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table C-9. NET BORROWING FROM THE PUBLIC BY GOVERNMENT, GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES, AND GOVERNMENTGUARANTEED BORROWERS (in billions of dollars) Borrowing or repayment ( —) Debt outstanding 1971 1973 end 1973 1972 actual Description 19.4 39.5 27.5 371.3 Borrowing by Government-sponsored enterprises Less increase in holding of Federal debt Plus repayment of debt of Government-sponsored enterprises held in Government accounts 1.5 -.7 8.6 .2 9.2 * 55.1 -3.8 Net Government-sponsored borrowing from public. .9 8.8 9.2 51.3 Federal borrowing from the public 2 .1 Government-guaranteed borrowing by non-Federal borrowers 3 Less borrowing from Government or Governmentspoasored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association Government National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Export-Import Bank 16.1 23.3 25.9 189.4 2.2 .3 .5 -.1 4.9 -.1 .5 -.1 4.4 -.6 .4 -.1 24.9 4.4 1.4 .1 Net Government-guaranteed borrowing from public by non-Federal borrowers 13.3 18. 21.8 158.6 Total, Federal and federally assisted borrowing from the public 33.7 66.5 58.5 581.3 *Less than $50 million. » See table C-l. 2 See table C-8. 3 See table E-3. Federal and Federally Assisted Borrowing $ Billions 70 60 50 1962 '63 '64 Fiscal Years '65 '66 "67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 "73 Estimate SPECIAL ANALYSIS D INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS This analysis focuses on the distinction between outlays that are of an investment or ''capital" nature and outlays directed to operating, or "current," purposes. To facilitate the analysis, the outlays presented in the budget as loan and expenditure accounts are classified in the following three categories: Investment-type outlays—yield benefits over several years, and consists of investments in: Federal assets of both a physical and financial nature; State, local, and private physical assets; developmental expenditures to add to the Nation's capacity for better education, technical innovation, and health services. Current outlays—provide benefits in the year that they are made. Included are aid and special services to agriculture, business, labor, homeowners, tenants, veterans, and for international commitments and Federal welfare obligations. Also included is retirement and social insurance representing Federal trusts established to provide an assured income to contributors or their families in the event of unemployment, retirement, disability, or death. And other services and current operating expenses, including transactions such as: Operation and administration of Federal departments and agencies; repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets; regulatory and control activities; and interest are also included. Unclassified outlays—which cannot be classified in either of the above two categories are placed in this residual classification. It includes: Allowance for revenue sharing, containing amounts covering the President's proposal for general revenue sharing, as well as additions to the detailed budget estimates that would accompany the conversion of various Federal aids to proposed special revenue-sharing grants; allowance for pay increases for civilian agencies (the corresponding pay increases for the military and civilian personnel of the Department of Defense are included in the national defense details); allowance for contingencies; and certain financial adjustments that cannot conveniently, or precisely, be distributed, such as proprietary receipts and the employer share of employee retirement. Each of the major classifications is subdivided so that civil and national defense outlays can be separately analyzed. The national defense grouping in this analysis corresponds to the national defense function in the budget; the civil grouping includes all other functions in the budget. 45 46 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table D-l. SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in billions of dollars) Outlays 1971 actual T972 estimate 1973 estimate INVESTMENT-TYPE OUTLAYS Additions to Federal assets: Civil: Loans and other financial investments Physical assets: Public works_ Major commodity inventories Major equipment and other physical assets National defense Additions to State, local, and private assets: Civil National defense Developmental outlays: Civil National defense Subtotal, investment type outlays: Civil National defense _ _. 1.8 3.3 1.2 2.6 —.6 .5 21.1 3.7 .1 .8 20.7 3.9 .1 .7 18.5 7.5 * 8.4 * 9.0 * 18.8 9.0 21.6 9.5 22.3 9.7 30.6 30.1 37.8 30.1 37.3 28.1 34.8 1.5 51.7 41.4 1.9 58.1 43.0 2.2 63.8 15.2 7.3 47.2 15.3 11.3 46.9 .8 16.0 15.1 47.1 3.4 109.0 48.7 126.1 49.6 137.9 52.7 CURRENT OUTLAYS Current expenses for aids and special services: Civil National defense Retirement and social insurance benefits—civil Other services and current operating expenses: Civil: Interest Other National defense Allowances, Department of Defense Subtotal, current outlays: Civil National defense UNCLASSIFIED Payments to other funds Allowances: Pay raises (excluding Department of Defense) Contingencies Employer share, employee retirement (—) Proprietary receipts from the public ( - ) 1 Total budget, outlays * * —2.6 —4.4 .2 .3 —2.7 —4.9 .8 .5 —2.9 —8.1 211.4 236.6 246.3 *1 Less than $50 million. Excludes loan repayments deposited in miscellaneous receipts and offset in the loan and expenditure accounts as follows: 1971 1972 1973 Loan repayments offset in the loan account Repayments offset in the expenditure account —0. 2 —.2 —0. 3 —.3 —0. 3 —.3 • The proportion of the budget dedicated to civil purposes is expected to be $168 billion, 68% of the total 1973 budget. • Additions to Federal civil assets are expected to be $6.0 billion in 1973, a decrease of $1.8 billion, or 23% under 1972. SPECIAL ANALYSES 47 • Investments in State and local, and private assets will be $9.1 billion, an increase of $0.6 billion, growing by 8%. • Development investments in education, training, and health will amount to $15.1 billion in 1973, an increase of $0.3 billion, or 2% over, 1972. • Outlays for research and development will increase 3.5% or $0.6 billion to $16.7 billion in 1973. • Current outlays for homeowners and tenants will have an estimated growth of $0.5 billion, and will be $1.4 billion in 1973. • Retirement and social insurance systems will be $63.8 billion in 1973, an increase of $5.7 billion over 1972, making these benefit payments 26% of the total 1973 budget. Table I>2. CIVIL INVESTMENTS AND CURRENT OPERATING OUTLAYS Percent of total outlays 1969 actual 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate INVESTMENT-TYPE OUTLAYS Additions to Federal assets: Loans . Other financial investments Public worksites and direct construction Major commodity inventories Major equipment Other physical assets—acquisition and improvement 1.8 .1 1.2 .2 .1 1.5 .1 1.1 .3 .1 .7 .1 1.2 —.3 .1 1.3 .1 1.6 .1 .1 .2 .2 .2 Subtotal, additions to Federal assets 3.4 3.2 2.0 3.3 2.4 3.0 .6 3.0 .5 3.1 .4 3.1 .4 3.3 .4 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.8 3.5 .1 5.3 3.2 .1 5.8 3.1 .1 6.2 2.8 .1 6.1 2.8 •1 8.1 8.5 8.9 9.1 9.0 15.4 15.2 14.5 16.0 15.2 2.3 .9 .4 -.2 4.1 .9 2.5 1.9 2.2 .9 .4 -.0 4.4 .7 3.3 2.4 2.3 1.0 .5 .1 4.7 .6 4.5 2.5 1.9 1.1 .5 .4 4.8 .8 5.5 2.5 2.1 1.0 .5 .6 4.9 .7 5.3 2.4 12.7 14.3 16.2 17.5 17.5 .1 .3 .2 1.6 .1 .1 Additions to State, local, and private assets: State and local assets Private assets Subtotal, additions to State, local, and private assets Other development outlays: Education, training, and health Research and development Engineering and natural resources surveys l Subtotal, other development outlays Total, investment-type outlays CURRENT OUTLAYS Current outlays for aids and special services: Agriculture Business Labor Homeowners and tenants Veterans International aids Welfare aids . Other aids and special services Subtotal, current expenses for aids and special services See footnotes at end of table. 48 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table D-2. CIVIL INVESTMENTS AND CURRENT OPERATING OUTLAYS-Continued Percent of total outlays 1969 1970 actual actual 1971 actual 1972 1973 estimate estimate CURRENT OUTLAYS—Continued Retirement and social insurance benefits: Insurance benefits Unemployment benefits Other retirement and social insurance benefits.. 18.5 1.1 1.3 19.1 1.4 1.3 20.8 2.5 1.2 20.8 2.7 1.1 22.7 2.1 1.1 Subtotal, retirement and social insurance benefits 20.9 21.8 24.4 24.5 25.9 Other services and current operating expenses: Repair, maintenance and operation of physical assets (excluding special services) Regulation and control Other operation and administration Interest .4 .5 —1.6 7.0 .5 .5 1.8 7.5 .5 .8 2.2 7.2 .5 .8 3.5 6.5 .5 .9 4. 7 6.5 9.5 10.3 10.6 11.2 12.6 Total, current outlays 43.1 46.3 51.3 53.3 56^0 Total, investment-type outlays and current outlays 58.5 61.5 65.8 69.3 71.2 Subtotal, other services and current operating expenses 1 Includes offsets for interbudgetary transactions. Note.—Subtotals and totals may not add due to rounding. OUTLAYS OF AN INVESTMENT NATURE Outlays of an investment nature are divided into three categories: (1) Additions to Federal assets; (2) additions to State, local, and private assets; and (3) developmental outlays. The investment-type portion of civil outlays is $37.3 billion, approximately 15% of the budget. Defense investments are $28.1 billion, comprising 11% of the 1973 defense budget. Additions to Federal assets.—This category comprises additions to both financial and physical assets of the Federal Government. Civil Federal assets in 1973 will be $37.3 billion, decreasing by $0.4 billion, or 1% from the 1972 level. The financial assets are primarily direct loans—for example, loans to finance private housing construction and encourage homeownership, to help small businesses, to finance rural electric and telephone systems, and to promote economic development abroad. Federal financial assets include both loans and other financial investments that are classified in the expenditure account, as well as loans in the loan account. Other financial investments include the capital provided for certain international organizations. Civil loans and financial assets are estimated at $1.2 billion and represent 0.5% of the 1973 budget. Loans are expected to increase by $0.8 billion and other financial investments by $0.5 billion. Special Analysis E discusses financial investments in greater detail. Additions to physical assets include outlays for public works, (see Special Analysis P, Federal public works activities), such as SPECIAL ANALYSES 49 dam construction, flood control projects, Federal power systems, changes in major commodity inventories and outlays for major equipment (including military equipment) and for the acquisition and improvement of real property and other physical assets. Additions to civil physical assets are $4.8 billion in 1973, an increase of $0.3 billion over 1972. The major change is in outlays for sites and direct construction, which are expected to increase $0.2 billion. Additions to State, local, and private assets.—Federal outlays in this category add to State, local, and private assets. Grants that add to the physical assets of State and local governments are primarily for the construction of highways (mainly through the highway trust fund), hospitals, airports, waste-treatment works, watershed protection projects, schools in federally affected areas, and public facilities under economic development programs for depressed regions. Outlays that increase the value of privately owned assets are largely for the conservation and improvement of private farmland and water, for grants for construction of private nonprofit hospitals and other health facilities, and for construction subsidies to the merchant fleet. Civil additions to State, local, and private assets in 1973 will be $9.0 billion, an increase of $0.6 billion, primarily in Federal contribution to highways, hospitals, and other facilities. The increase, although substantial, will be at a slower rate, falling from an annual rate of 13% in 1972 to 8% in 1973. However, the 1973 increase could be much greater if State and local governments use the discretion permitted under proposed revenue-sharing program to add to their physical assets. Developmental outlays.—Federal outlays of this type are principally for research and development, education and health, and other programs that improve the Nation's knowledge, technical skills, and physical vigor. The Federal outlays shown in this category do not fully reflect the Government's contribution to the productivity of the economy. Certain other programs that further this end are classified in accordance wxith their principal purpose; thus, veterans educational benefits are listed as veterans aids rather than as developmental outlays. Similarly, the training of military personnel or other Government personnel is treated as an operating expense and not as part of the Government's education and training programs. Civil developmental outlays are $22.3 billion, an increase of $0.7 billion from 1972, and is growing by 3%, a decrease from the 15% rate in 1972. Civil outlays for education, training, and health are $15.1 billion in 1973. This amount is 2% over 1972 outlays, an increase of $0.3 billion. Current civil outlays for research and development are $7.0 billion, in 1973 and reflect an increase of $0.3 billion from the 1972 level The rate of increase in 1973 is 5% above 1972 growth rate of 3 % . OUTLAYS OF A CURRENT NATURE Outlays of a current nature are divided into the following categories: (1) Current expenses for aids and special services; (2) retirement and social insurance benefits; and (3) other services and current operating expenses. 480-700 O—72 4 50 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 The current outlays for civil functions are $138 billion, an increase of $12 billion from 1972. The rate of increase, however, will decline from 16% in 1972 to 9% in 1973. Current expenses for aids and special services.—Outlays classified under this heading provide aids or special services to certain groups, mainly in the year in which the outlays are made. In addition to such items as outlays for the farm programs of the Commodity Credit Corporation, maritime operating subsidies, veterans pensions, and grants to foreign nations for economic and military assistance, this category includes: (1) Administrative and other operating expense, attributable to investment-type programs that benefit specific groups; and (2) the costs of maintaining the physical assets related to those programs. Only part of the Federal Government's aid to special groups is reflected in this classification, which is limited by definition to current expenses. For example, subsidies for the construction of private merchant ships are classified as additions to private assets. Similarly, outlays for which the Federal Government increases its holdings of assets or collateral (as the acquisition of farm commodities bj the Commodity Credit Corporation) are treated as additions to Federal assets. Many indirect Government aids are excluded from this classification either because they are not reflected in outlays or cannot be readily measured. Examples of such indirect benefits are preferential tax treatments. Although outlays in this category essentially provide a direct aid or special service yielding immediate benefits, some of the items included contribute indirectly to the Nation's future development. Among these are grants for several community development purposes. Civil outlays will grow at 4%, increasing by $1.6 billion to a 1973 level of $43.0 billion. The rate of growth, however, of this category has slowed down. There is a 15% increase ($0.7 billion) for agriculture, and a 64% increase ($0.5 billion) for homeowners and tenants. Welfare aid is expected to be slightly up from 1972. Retirement and social insurance benefits.—This category applies only to trust funds. It covers benefit programs that: (1) Are financed from special taxes or contributions; and (2) provide insurance against the loss of income due to unemployment, retirement, disability, or death. It does not include outlays for Government employees' health and life insurance expenditures, which are in the form of premium payments to approved companies. A large part of the growth in retirement and social insurance benefits is the result of a growing number of recipients as well as cost-of-living increases. Outlays for these benefits are expected to rise 10% in 1972, to $63.8 billion. These benefits will be 26% of the budget in 1973. Other services and current operating outlays.—The outlays reported under this heading support a wide range of activities. They consist mainly of: Pay and subsistence of military personnel; repair, SPECIAL ANALYSES 51 maintenance, and operation of physical assets of the national military establishment and general purpose public buildings; conduct of foreign affairs; tax collection; payment of interest on the national debt; and operation and administration of other direct Federal programs not elsewhere classified. These outlays are expected to increase by $4.5 billion and will reach $31.1 billion in 1973. Increases of $0.3 billion for regulation and control, $3.4 billion for other operation and administration, and $0.6 billion in interest payments are expected. UNCLASSIFIED Certain transactions cannot be properly classified into any of the categories described above. The major examples of such transactions include revenue sharing and the special allowances for civilian agency pay increases, and for unforeseeable contingencies. Particularly difficult to classify are intragovernmental transactions. Interfund and intragovernmental receipts arise as a result of transactions between Government agencies or funds. These transactions occur entirely within Government accounts and are deducted from outlays to avoid double counting. In order to provide a measure of outlays by character, most interfund and intragovernmental receipts are allocated to a particular category when ever possible. Thus, for example, interest received by the social security and other trust funds is deducted from the Interest category in order to derive a measure of interest outlays affecting the public. Proprietary receipts from the public, arising from market-oriented or business-type activities of the Government, are unclassified and offset against total outlays to highlight the net impact of the budget. In addition, Government agency contributions for employee retirement, which help to finance retirement benefits, are deducted as a lump-sum unclassified amount. RELATIONSHIP TO CAPITAL BUDGET The U.S. Government does not produce a capital budget in the sense of a long-range program for the acquisition of assets, with separate financing of capital outlays. Some foreign governments and some State and local governments fund a portion of their capital expenditures by separate borrowing. They exclude most or all such expenditures from their computation of budget totals, except for annual charges to amortize these capital outlays over a number of years. While not a precise measure of the difference between capital and current items, this analysis does provide useful general magnitudes. However, it does not make any allowance for depreciation and obsolescence on existing physical assets, anticipated losses on loan programs, or profit or loss on sales of assets at figures different from their book value. Agencies record such allowances for transactions only where the data will serve program and management needs, as in the case of the public enterprise funds. As a result, it is not possible to determine directly from this analysis the net addition to the value of federally owned assets. 52 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Recoverability of outlays.—In general, Government outlays for assets are not expected to be recovered by specific revenues. However, most loans, investment in commodity inventories, the construction of powerplants, and outlays for range and forest improvements on public domain and national forest lands are offset in whole or in part by receipts to the Treasury through repayments and sales, specific charges, or recoveries. Where activities are carried on through revolving funds, such as in the case of most loan programs, receipts are credited directly against disbursements and only the difference is included in the total of outlays in the budget and in this analysis. All other receipts from the public arising from market-oriented or businesstype activities of the Government are offset against total outlays. Whether recovered by specific revenues or not, investment and developmental outlays for both physical and human capital add to the wealth and income of the Nation, and by helping to expand the tax base, augment the Government's potential future revenues. However, this analysis does not attempt to measure the degree of recoverability of developmental outlays, the potential gain in public revenues that will be forthcoming from them, nor the duration of future benefits and their discounted present value. Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS Loans: Loan account—civil: To domestic and private borrowers: Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs Rural Electrification Administration Farmers Home Administration: Rural housing insurance Emergency credit revolving fund Agricultural credit insurance Other i Other* Department of Commerce: Economic development administration: Industrial development loans and guarantees and other Other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education and other Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing production and mortgage credit: Federal Housing Administration: Federal Housing Administration fund Special assistance functions Management and liquidating functions Other Other See footnotes at end of table. 120 452 137 401 58 467 —183 18 —67 12 * -53 -77 -37 -6 1 -115 -46 -446 * 38 -10 34 2 33 4 51 62 57 153 360 —117 73 41 197 193 -318 35 41 242 79 -663 1 41 SPECIAL ANALYSES 53 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Dcicription 1971 1972 1973 Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Loans—Continued Loans account—civil— Continued To domestic and private borrowers—Continued Veterans Administration: Loan guaranty revolving fund Veterans direct loans Other . Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Small Business Administration: Business loans and investment Disaster loans Other agencies Total to domestic and private borrowers To State and local governments: Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Transportation: Federal Highway Administration: Right-of-way revolving fund (trust fund) Urban Mass Transportation Administration District of Columbia Other agencies Total to State and local governments To foreign borrowers ___ _ Total loan account—civil _ Loan account—national defense: To domestic and private borrowers: Other agencies Total loan accounts Expenditure account—civil: To domestic and private borrowers: Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs Department of Health, Education, and Welfare National Institutes of Health: Health manpower and otherOffice of Education: Higher education _ Other agencies Total to domestic and private borrowers To State and local governments: Other agencies. To foreign borrowers: Funds appropriated to the President: International development assistance ___ __ Department of Agriculture: Public Law 480: Public Law 480 credit sales _ See footnotes at end of table. -92 -71 39 -72 -217 24 -52 -258 14 -79 -11 -12 61 162 31 118 125 55 113 -12 -40 993 634 -532 58 72 61 33 58* 27 51 167* 42 55 * 166 33 175 332 314 -49 48 16 1,119 1,014 -202 -1 -1 -4 1,118 1.012 -206 —919 661 —200 42 197 22 50 248 28 50 243 28 -659 988 121 2 2 -5 830 595 417 493 569 661 54 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Loans—Continued Expenditure account—civi'—Continued To foreign borrowers—Continued Other agencies —3 —3 —2 __ 1,320 1,161 1,075 Total loan repayments deposited in miscellaneous receipt accounts -222 -202 -208 441 1,949 984 * -1 * 122 303 87 -5 170 197 18 7 280 508 392 284 -28 -57 -98 Total expenditure account—national defense 479 333 186 Total expenditure accounts 920 2,283 1,170 2,039 3,295 964 201 —2 325 —2 460 —2 200 323 458 114 21 6 147 49 10 153 48 6 875 54 23 1,032 59 28 1,156 63 27 Total to foreign borrowers Total expenditure account—civil Expenditure account—national defense: To domestic and private borrowers: other agencies To foreign borrowers: Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance: Foreign military credit sales Military credit sales to Israel Liquidation of foreign military sales fund Other agencies Total to foreign borrowers Total loan repayments deposited in miscellaneous receipt accounts Total loans Other financial investments—civil: Investments in quasi-public institutions, trust funds, and international institutions: Funds appropriated to the President: International financial institutions Department of Labor Total investments in quasi-public institutions, trust funds, and international institutions Public works—sites and direct construction: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service: Forest roads and trails Other i Other _. Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers: Construction, general Flood control, Mississippi River and tributaries Construction local funds (trust funds) See footnotes at end of table. -2 6 SPECIAL ANALYSES 55 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description Investment-type 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Public works—sites and direct construction—Continued Civil—Continued Other 1 Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Construction of schools and roads_ National Park Service: Construction and other Bureau of Reclamation: Construction and rehabilitation Colorado River Basin project Other 1 .-----: .Bonneville Power Administration: Construction Other ,_ Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Acquisition, construction, and improvements. Federal Aviation Administration: Airway system investment and development (airport and airway trust fund) _ _ Other General Services Administration: Public buildings National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service. Veterans Administration: Hospitals and other Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies Total public works, civil 8 35 19 80 21 82 50 29 86 81 92 58 192 11 102 21 230 37 26 90 32 278 64 36 85 53 39 43 52 160 7 123 44 87 80 481 35 246 17 199 43 276 107 654 78 241 29 308 60 258 96 529 118 20 2,617 3,668 3,912 1,031 108 3 243 1,344 177 3 237 1,147 195 2 237 Total public works, national defense 1,384 1,761 1,581 Total public works—sites and direct construction 4,001 5,428 5,493 -652 66 23 43 146 -2 -587 66 144 -187 -25 33 30 -18 . -31 25 National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military construction Family housing Other Atomic Energy Commission Major commodity inventories: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation: Agricultural commodities Department of the Interior: Helium fund Total major commodity inventories, civil National defense: Funds appropriated to the President: Expansion of defense production Other agencies Federal interfund transactions (—) Total major commodity inventories, national defense -172 5 -6 Total major commodity inventories -759 71 138 See footnotes at end of table. 56 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO FEDERAL ASSETS—Continued Major equipment: Civil: Department of Transportation: Coast Guard Other i Postal Service Other agencies 1 30 * 122 24 64 1 160 33 60 6 186 27 Total major equipment, civil 176 257 279 National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Procurement Atomic Energy Commission 18,858 179 17,944 159 16,082 149 Total major equipment, national defense 19,037 18,103 16,231 Total major equipment 19,213 18,360 16,509 —78 66 78 79 237 3 05 271 130 24 150 24 115 25 2 —13 —11 2 —54 —4 2 —43 —4 Total other physical assets, civil 358 502 445 National defense: Department of Defense—Military Atomic Energy Commission —2 386 9 460 —1 470 Total other physical assets, national defense 384 469 470 Total other physical assets—acquisition and improvement. 742 970 915 25,436 28,448 24,477 202 * 237 2 230 Other physical assets—acquisition and improvement: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration: Loans security acquisition. Reforestation and range improvements and other Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing production and mortgage credit and other Department of the Interior: Land and water conservation Other 1 General Services Administration: Real property activities Surplus real property credit sales Other agencies l Total, additions to Federal assets ADDITIONS TO STATE, LOCAL. AND PRIVATE ASSETS State and local assets: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development Public works acceleration See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 57 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays—Continued ADDITIONS TO STATE, LOCAL, AND PRIVATE ASSETS—Continued State and local assets—Continued Civil—Continued Department of Agriculture: Watershed and flood prevention operations Resource conservation and development Rural water and waste disposal grants Rural housing for domestic farm labor and other Department of Commerce: Economic development facilities and other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Health services planning and development and other National I nstitutes of Health: Health manpower Office of Education: Higher education Other Social and Rehabilitation Service Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community planning and management Community development: Grants for neighborhood facilities Open space land programs Grants for basic water and sewer facilities Department of the Interior: Land and water conservation Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife and other Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration: Grants-in-aid for airports (airport and airway trust fund in 1971 and 1972) Federal Highway Administration: Federal-aid highways (trust fund) Other i . . . ""--r National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Urban Mass Transportation Administration Environmental Protection Agency Intergovernmental agencies: Federal contribution, Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Other agencies Total State and local assets, civil National defense: Department of Defense—Military Total State and local assets Private assets: Civil: Department of Agriculture: Agriculture Stabilization and Conservation Service Soil Conservation Service Other Department of Commerce: Ship construction See footnotes at end of table. 74 12 20 5 153 87 16 53 4 162 96 20 49 3 193 120 101 105 99 82 79 193 29 1 135 26 10 75 26 13 2 4 23 39 121 35 69 130 35 80 150 62 49 10 110 91 40 130 88 64 61 131 200 4,540 4,571 4,771 3 153 478 1 260 908 1 351 1,100 35 7 89 6 164 6 6,517 7,431 8,071 27 52 62 14 18 6,531 7,446 8,089 256 176 6 139 253 192 10 161 261 195 -7 198 14 58 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays ADDITIONS TO STATE, LOCAL AND PRIVATE ASSETS—Continued Private assets—Continued Civil—Continued Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Health services planning and development and mental health National Institutes of Health: Health manpower Office of Education: Higher education and other Other 1 Other agencies * Total, private assets, civil National defense: General Services Administration Total private assets Total additions to State, local, and private assets 171 55 95 6 41 150 56 75 36 36 119 60 50 47 38 945 * 968 * 962 * 946 969 962 7,477 8,414 9,051 17 861 155 31 447 178 43 223 187 171 113 460 52 123 29 234 120 559 57 149 26 336 174 586 113 160 30 65 171 144 63 269 146 65 386 152 1,802 508 1,876 496 81 42 75 478 849 73 182 51 -4 1,872 453 381 19 80 509 843 87 198 65 16 OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES Education, training, and health: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Economic Opportunity Program Department of Agriculture: Extension service and other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Mental health Heal th services planning and development Health services delivery Preventive health services Indian health services Other 1 National Institutes of Health: National Institute of General Medical Sciences Health manpower Other Office of Education: Elementary and secondary education School assistance in federally affected areas Emergency school assistance Civil rights education Education for the handicapped Vocational and adult education Higher education Library resources Educational renewal Salaries and expenses Other See footnotes at end of table. 70 60 396 717 83 150 50 16 SPECIAL ANALYSES 59 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES—Continued Education, training, and health—Continued Civil—Continued Depaitment of Health, Education, and Welfare—Continued Social and Rehabilitation Service: Grants to States for public assistance Work incentives Social and rehabilitation services Other Other i Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Education and welfare services Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance and other. Department of Labor: Manpower Administration: Salaries and expenses Manpower training services Emergency employment assistance Veterans Administration: Medical care and other Action National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities 1 National Science Foundation Other agencies Total education, training, and health, civil National defense: Atomic Energy Commission and other agencies Total education, training and health Research and development: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Economic opportunity program Other Department of AgricultureAgricultural Research Service 1 Cooperative State Research Service * Forest Service 1 Other 1 Department of Commerce: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2 National Bureau of Standards Other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Mental health Health services planning and development Other National Institutes of Health Office of Education: Educational renewal and other National Institute of Education Social and Rehabilitation Services: Research and training and other Other! See footnotes at end of table. 3,407 129 557 21 75 4,455 195 609 25 91 3,480 270 704 20 102 166 36 196 69 207 82 25 1,114 29 149 138 56 1,416 660 123 90 51 107 145 56 1,486 1,100 153 96 79 110 148 12,164 14,765 15,072 15 15 15 12,179 14,780 15,086 54 14 45 17 47 17 178 68 49 22 194 77 57 25 201 82 54 24 65 32 29 81 36 43 107 50 47 123 38 50 912 113 118 41 34 1,043 125 2 130 47 38 1,223 108 50 45 31 73 44 62 85 107 60 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Investment-type outlays OTHER DEVELOPMENTAL EXPENDITURES—Continued Research and development—Continued Civil—Continued Department of the Interior: Geological survey Bureau of Mines: Conservation and development of mineral resources and other Saline water conversion and other l Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration: Civil supersonic aircraft development Civil supersonic aircraft development termination Engineering and development (airport and airway trust fund) Other Other Environmental Protection Agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration l Postal Service Veterans Administration National Science Foundation __ __ Other agencies Total research and development, civil National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Research, development, test, and evaluation Other Atomic Energy Commission Total research and development, national defense Total research and development 44 51 67 50 82 71 91 81 93 193 78 62 71 8 6 26 43 104 101 3,348 59 63 334 119 56 27 157 157 3,150 76 68 400 165 56 25 198 174 3,142 92 76 451 168 6,467 6,653 7,007 331 7,303 5 1,303 348 7,780 5 1,308 345 7,923 6 1,375 8,942 9,441 9,649 15,409 16,095 16,656 Engineering and natural resources surveys—civil: Department of the Interior: Geological survey Other i Other agenciesl Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total engineering and natural resources surveys 59 36 79 —17 61 43 93 —17 65 57 99 —16 157 179 204 Total other developmental expenditures 27,745 31,054 31,947 Total investment-type outlays 60,657 67,916 65,475 See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 61 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES Agriculture—civil: Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service: Expenses and other Sugar Act program Commodity Credit Corporation: Price support and related programs National Wool Act Other Farmers Home Administration: Rural housing insurance Agricultural credit insurance Salaries and expenses and other * Consumer and Marketing Service Other i Other agencies Total agriculture Business—civil: Department of Commerce: Patent Office._ ... Maritime Administration: Operating-differential subsidies and other Other 1 Department of Defense—civil: Corps of Engineers—civil T h e P a n a m a Canal Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Navigation and other 1_____ Federal Aviation Administration: Operations and o t h e r l Federal Railroad Administration Other _ ...... Civil Aeronautics Board: Payments to air carriers Small Business Administration: Business loans and investments and other Other agencies! Federal interfund transactions ( - ) Total business Labor—civil: Department of the Interior: Bureau of Mines: Health and safety. Department of Labor: Manpower Administration: Unemployment trust fund and other Employment Standards Administrationl Occupational Safety and Health Administration Other : Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Totallabor See footnotes at end of table. 158 86 175 85 167 92 4,274 75 3 3,617 99 * 4,298 81 —3 44 105 69 108 15 82 95 98 69 111 15 82 54 121 68 118 16 4,934 4,447 5,097 55 60 65 278 110 278 132 243 180 186 -13 252 -7 266 -14 400 883 26 6 55 432 992 123 7 60 445 960 68 7 54 117 44 -25 302 21 -30 238 18 -29 2,123 2,621 2,501 28 45 54 820 53 970 86 39 16 51 22 1,013 46 64 63 30 955 1,174 1,270 62 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Tatlc D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued Homeowners and tenants—civil: Funds appropriated to the President Department of Housing and Urban Development: Housing Production and Mortgage Credit: Federal Housing Administration Special assistance functions Other Housing management: Housing payments and other Other Federal Home Loan Bank Board Total homeowners and tenants * 1 1 —394 51 -27 733 18 —104 -356 144 -7 1,264 10 -213 -410 166 26 1,779 23 -206 277 843 1,379 5,800 1,620 1,768 257 627 85 -51 47 —128 6,187 2,194 2,099 283 757 90 -48 88 -259 6,583 2,382 2,342 306 503 68 -11 90 -261 Veterans—civil: Veterans Administration: Compensation and pensions Readjustment benefits Medical care General operating expenses National service life insurance. U.S. Government life insurance Other 1 Other agencies * Intragovernmental transactions (—) Total veterans 10,025 11,391 12,002 460 358 26 584 672 23 796 638 46 425 1 89 -135 27 545 178 82 -4 47 86 1,251 1,949 1,768 1,487 56 1,849 47 2,107 48 Total international aids, national defense 1,543 1,896 2,155 Total international aids 2, 795 3,845 3,923 International aids: Civil: Funds appropriated to the President: I nternational security assistance International development assistance 1 Contingencies Department of Agriculture: Public law 480 donations of agricultural commodities Foreign Economic Development Service Action Export-Import Bank of the United States Other agenciesl Total international aids, civil National defense: Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistancel Department of Defense—Military: Military construction See footnotes at end of table. 24 SPECIAL ANALYSES 63 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 1972 1973 actual estimate estimate Current Outlays—Continued CURRENT EXPENSES FOR AIDS AND SPECIAL SERVICES—Continued Welfare aids—civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Disaster relief Department of Agriculture: Removal of surplus agricultural commodities Child nutrition programs Special milk program Food stamp program Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social and Rehabilitation Service: Grants to States for public assistance Social and rehabilitation services Assistance to refugees in the United States Other services Social Security Administration: Special benefits for disabled coalminers Welfare reform Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Education and welfare services Total welfare aids Other aids and special services—civil: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Economic opportunity program 1 Department of Commerce: Social and Economic Statistics Administration: 19th decennial census and other ! Other 1 Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Health services delivery. „. __ Other National Institutes of Health Social Security Administration: Payments to social security trust funds Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Other Office of Child Development Departmental management and other Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community planning and management: Comprehensive planning grants and other Community development: Model Cities Urban renewal capital grants Other Departmental management Other See footnotes at end of table. 125 150 100 393 520 91 1,568 645 664 95 2,066 722 595 94 2,305 6,231 30 85 37 8,594 34 104 43 8,027 55 132 56 318 568 555 350 63 75 83 9,460 13,039 13,076 8 569 10 564 8 565 68 53 32 60 19 65 95 73 19 88 81 23 91 107 28 2,573 545 188 149 245 * 4 40 2,417 554 208 166 293 * 216 59 2,602 582 208 175 327 45 54 95 328 1,031 2 59 2 450 1,000 21 44 11 625 1,000 20 47 14 379 65 64 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Other aids and special services—civil—Continued Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Resources management Tribal funds (trust funds) Other 1 Other* Department of Transportation: Federal Highway Administration: Federal-aid highways (trust fund) Other ....... National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: State and community highway safety Otheri Other Postal service Other agenciesl Intragovernmental transactions (—) 70 89 15 12 74 96 17 14 81 96 17 14 84 15 89 36 93 46 66 32 25 1,915 64 —2,659 73 31 35 1,432 76 —2,349 50 42 39 874 74 —2,515 5,824 5,975 5,933 36,394 43,334 45,182 31,101 3,381 5,442 2,035 34,541 3,961 6,265 2,240 15 36,171 4,236 6,952 2,456 3,992 95 1,900 —1 110 2,094 93 2,079 43,953 49,226 55,979 5,225 6,320 5,157 Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement and disability fund Other trust funds 3,234 25 3,632 28 4,139 31 Trust interfund and intragovernmental transactions (—)__ —781 —1,136 —1,546 2,478 2,524 2,623 51,657 58,070 63,760 Total other aids and special services Total current expenses for aids and special services RETIREMENT AND SOCIAL INSURANCE BENEFITS Insurance benefits—civil: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social Security Administration: Federal old-age and survivors insurance trust fund Federal disability insurance trust fund Federal hospital insurance trust fund Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Proposed legislation Department of Labor: Manpower Administration: Unemployment trust fund Railroad Retirement Board (trust fund) Trust interfund transactions (—) Total insurance benefits Unemployment benefits—civil: Department of Labor: Unemployment trust fund Other retirement and social insurance benefits—civil: Total other retirement and social insurance benefits Total retirement and social insurance benefits See footnotes at end of table- SPECIAL ANALYSES 65 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars) — C o n t i n u e d Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES Repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets (excluding special services): Civil: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service * Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers: Operation and maintenance, general Other Miscellaneous accounts Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management * National Park Service * Bureau of Reclamation * Other - — -.-- : General Services Administration: Public buildings Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies l Federal interfund transactions (—) 95 39 * 113 40 * 146 40 1 80 109 71 54 411 -164 61 —* 85 122 93 61 435 -132 69 77 149 90 62 460 -87 92 Total repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets, civil 1,056 1,186 1,273 20,894 421 148 —2 20,450 472 169 * 20,397 535 169 * Total repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets, national defense 21,461 21,091 21,102 Total repair, maintenance, and operation of physical assets- 22,517 22,277 22, 374 National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Operation and maintenance Family h o u s i n g s Atomic Energy Commission General Services Administration Regulation and control—civil: The Judiciary Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Research Service Animal and Plant Health Service 1 Consumer and Marketing Service l Other Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Food and Drug Administration and other Department of Justice: Legal activities and general administration Federal Bureau of Investigation Immigration and Naturalization Service Federal Prison System i .-.-—. Law Enforcement Assistance Administration Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs Department of Transportation: Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration Federal Railroad Administration See footnotes at end of table. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 299 300 243 144 173 192 100 136 6 54 62 152 7 101 163 7 68 77 128 129 287 118 155 319 125 169 322 128 106 79 95 181 35 303 58 433 63 58 91 5 70 84 6 86 120 7 66 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Regulation and control—civil—Continued Department of the Treasury: Internal Revenue Service Secret Service Other 1 Environmental Protection Agency l Other Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (trust fund) Other agencies 1 Total regulation and control 71 43 24 85 -1 -184 225 88 59 40 171 95 62 46 190 -423 250 -433 262 1,703 1,925 2,248 225 150 39 190 9 249 176 40 196 42 256 191 48 200 48 612 702 742 83 90 96 48 134 70 880 37 9 1,260 62 149 76 1,012 52 4 1,447 62 161 74 1,045 51 4 1,493 281 41 346 57 346 64 158 14 174 14 193 18 28 49 58 103 29 54 64 330 32 137 30 54 71 43 60 128 49 -27 -161 14 * 70 -36 -158 43 * 81 -58 -171 50 * 739 1,157 910 Other operation and administration: Civil: International activities: Department of State: Administration of foreign affairs * International organizations and conferences l Other i United States Information Agency l Other agencies Total international activities Federal financial activities: Legislative branch: General Accounting Office and other.__ Department of the Treasury: Bureau of Accounts * Bureau of Customs Bureau of the Public Debt Internal Revenue Service Other____ Other agencies Total Federal financial activities Other direct Federal programs: Legislative branch Executive Office of the President Department of Commerce: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration l Other Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers The Panama Canal Department of the Interior Department of the Treasury: Bureau of Accounts and other l . Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration Civil Service Commission: Salaries and expenses and other l Employees health benefits fund Employees life insurance fund Other agencies * Federal interfund and intragovernmental transactions (—) Total other direct Federal programs See footnotes at end of table. n2o3 SPECIAL ANALYSES 67 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Other operation and administration—Continued Civil—Continued Retirement, unemployment, and accident compensation for Federal employees: Department of Labor: Federal unemployment benefits and allowances Federal workmen's compensation benefits Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Retired pay_ Civil Service Commission: Special payments and annuities. Other agencies Federal interfund transactions (—) Total retirement, unemployment, and accident compensation for federal employees Shared revenues and grants-in-aid: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Education revenue sharing Department of Housing and Urban Development: Urban community development revenue sharing Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management Territorial affairs Other Department of the Treasury: Bureau of Customs Internal Revenue Service General Revenue Sharing District of Columbia: Federal payment Other agencies 403 95 65 845 17 643 101 71 1,226 22 —14 395 82 72 1,663 29 —37 1,426 2,047 2,203 73 58 87 110 490 85 53 3 91 61 3 98 68 3 58 85 143 28 70 90 2,250 180 34 75 95 5,000 202 39 528 2,837 6,268 4,565 8,189 11,617 22,302 3,386 48 73 60 —219 2 81 11 ~~6 22,252 3,928 50 71 67 —624 12 81 8 —6 21,955 4,326 53 70 72 —599 12 80 8 —6 Total other operation and administration, national defense. _ 25,738 25,839 25,970 Total other operation and administration 30,303 34,028 37,587 Total, shared revenues and grants-in-aid Total, other operation and administration, civil National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Military personnel Retired military personnel Operation and maintenance Family housing Civil defense Revolving and management funds Other i__ Selective Service System Other agencies! Intragovernmental transactions (—) See footnotes at end of table. 68 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table D-3. INVESTMENT, OPERATING, AND OTHER BUDGET OUTLAYS (in millions of dollars)—Continued Description 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Current Outlays—Continued OTHER SERVICES AND CURRENT OPERATING EXPENSES—Continued Interest: On the public debt 20,959 21,400 22,700 132 6 158 6 158 5 137 164 163 —1,152 -4,765 —1,068 -5,190 —1,215 -5,697 Total interest 15,179 15,305 15,952 Total other services and current operating expenses 69,702 73,536 78,160 800 2,745 390 290 800 3,425 157,752 175,739 190,527 1 * —2,611 -4,375 250 300 —2,687 -4,908 775 500 —2,893 -8,128 211,425 236,610 246,257 Other interest: On refunds: Department of the Treasury On uninvested funds: Department of the Treasury Total other interest Intrabudgetary transactions (—) *: Interest on Government capital in enterprises (—) Interest received by trust funds (—) National defense allowances: Allowances: Civilian and military pay raises All-volunteer force Military retirement systems reform Total national defense allowances Total current outlays UNCLASSIFIED Payments to other funds Allowances for: Pay raises (excluding Department of Defense) Contingencies Employer share, employee retirement (—) Proprietary receipts from the public ( - ) 2 Total budget outlays 1*Less than $500 thousand. 3 Includes both Federal funds and trust funds. Excludes loan repayments deposited in miscellaneous receipts and offset in the penditure account as follows: 1971 Loan repayments offset in the loan account —249 Repayments offset in the expenditure account —250 loan and ex1972 1973 —256 —339 —256 —303 SPECIAL ANALYSIS E FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS INTRODUCTION Federal credit aids—direct loans, insurance or guarantees of private loans, and interest subsidies—play a major role in Government programs to: (a) Improve housing and encourage homeownership; (b) develop agricultural and other natural resources; (c) develop and redevelop communities and regions; (d) promote commerce, especially exports, transportation, and small business; (e) aid higher education; and (f) assist foreign economic development and security. Moreover, several Government-sponsored credit agencies provide additional credit assistance, outside the budget, in most of these areas. Federal and Federally Assisted Credit Outstanding $ Billions Loans by Government Sponsored Enterprises 250 - 200 - 150 - 100 - 50 Direct Loans 1962 '63 '64 Fiscal Y e a n '65 "66 '67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 73 Estimate 69 70 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 The combined level of Federal direct loans, guarantees * of private loans, and loans of federally sponsored enterprises, has risen steadily during the past decade. This growth reflects both the expansion of existing programs and the initiation of new programs to meet emerging needs. However, there have been significant shifts in the way that credit aids have been provided, resulting from increasing reliance upon private financing facilities, accompanied by restraint of the Government's role as a direct lender. A major benchmark in this trend was the conversion to private ownership in 1969 o? three enterprises formerly included in the budget—the Secondary Market Operations Trust Fund of the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), the Federal intermediate credit banks, and the banks for cooperatives. The increased emphasis on private financing (and away from direct loans with their immediate large budgetary impact) is frequently being accompanied by agency undertakings to pay a share of the interest costs, usually under long term subsidy contracts. Examples of these approaches include: (a) Federally insured loans and interest subsidies for college students; (b) insured loans combined with supplementary payments to finance housing for low- and moderate-income families, and (c) payment of a portion of the interest on privately financed loans for college housing and academic facilities. SCOPE OF SPECIAL ANALYSIS This analysis: (a) Summarizes 1971-73 trends in Federal credit programs; (b) indicates the relationship between the credit programs and overall budget totals; (c) identifies and estimates loan subsidy values; (d) provides data on off-budget credit agencies sponsored by the Government; and (e) aggregates Federal and federally assisted credit. In line with the recommendations of the 1967 President's Commission on Budget Concepts, Federal direct loans are classified in either the loan account, or the expenditure account. Programs not in the loan account are special cases, and comprise: (a) Foreign loans made largely on noncommercial terms, and (b) other loans where the terms of the loan contract make repayment in certain respects contingent rather than mandatory. Disbursements, repayments, and net outlays for each budget account2containing loan transactions are listed in the Appendix to the Budget. For programs in the loan account, net lending is also separately identified in Part 5 of the budget. Since most loan disbursements and repayments in foreign currencies are not included in the budget, the tables in this analysis include only data on loans that are both disbursed and repayable in dollars. Current policy requires that loans disbursed in dollars be repaid in 1 Statutory usage of the terms guarantee and insurance follows no consistent pattern that distinguishes between them. The term guarantee is, therefore, used frequently in this text to cover both terms. 2 See Appendix, p. 1088. SPECIAL ANALYSES 71 dollars; however, loans disbursed in foreign currencies may stipulate repayment either in dollars or in local currencies.3 This analysis includes coverage of new credit programs and changes to existing programs enacted during the past year. Such legislation, summarized in the last section of the analysis, authorizes several important changes in Federal credit programs. Proposed legislation.—The analysis also reflects the impact (when estimated) 4 of proposed legislation: (a) Establishing new direct and guaranteed loan programs for economic development for American Indians; (b) providing subsidized insured loans to lower income students, and establishing a secondary market facility for insured student loans; (c) authorizing direct and guaranteed loans for construction of facilities and initial operating costs for health maintenance organizations; (d) authorizing direct loans to public housing agencies to help finance or refinance development, acquisition, or operation of low-income housing projects; (e) establishing a Federal financing bank to improve the efficiency of Federal borrowing programs, and authorizing improved Treasury coordination of agency borrowing and guarantee programs; (f) substituting federally supported borrowing from the public for direct loans to finance capital programs by the District of Columbia; (g) establishing a District of Columbia development bank to aid economic development in the District of Columbia; (h) creating an environmental financing authority to help eligible local communities finance waste treatment projects; (i) authorizing the Small Business Administration (SBA) to purchase nonvoting preferred securities from minority enterprise small business investment companies (MESBIC), and granting interest subsidies on SBA loans to MESBIC's; (j) authorizing the insurance of interest and principal of railroad equipment obligations; (k) converting farm operating loans from a direct to an insured basis; and (1) authorizing Federal guarantee of taxable revenue bonds for the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, and providing for Federal payment of 25% of interest costs thereon. NEW COMMITMENTS New commitments to make direct loans or to guarantee private loans usually provide some advance indication of trends in the financial impact of these programs. In a few cases, commitment and loan disbursement occur simultaneously. But in most others, such as loans for construction, fairly long leadtimes may elapse between commitment and disbursement. Not all commitments result in loans, but most are a key factor in stimulating new economic activity. 3 The level and trends in direct loans of Government agencies disbursed or repayable in foreign currencies (in millions of dollars) are: 1971 1972 1973 Outstanding, start of year (dollar equivalents) 5,816 5,676 5,644 22 131 12 Disburseme Repayment: i— dollars 12 10 10 Repayment i—local currencies 140 153 161 Net disburse ts __ __ -130 -32 -159 Adjustment: -10 Outstanding, end of year 5,676 5,644 5,485 4 Estimates are not provided for items (a), (e), (f), and (h). 72 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 F e d e r a l Credit Programs—New Commitments SBilli, 70- 60 50- 40- 30- 20.-.- 10- 1962 '63 Fiscal Y e a n In this analysis, commitments are defined to include preliminary administrative reservations of funds as well as final approvals by Federal agencies of direct loans or guarantees of private loans. They are shown on a gross basis and include the unguaranteed portions of loans not fully covered by Federal guarantees. Direct loans.—New commitments for direct loans will decline from $10.5 billion in 1971 to $9.3 billion in 1972 and $8.1 billion in 1973. Unlike the growth of federally guaranteed or federally sponsored credit, the trends for direct loans are falling. Despite this decline, however, there will be modest increases for a few programs (see table E - l ) . The Export-Import Bank, excluded from budget totals by statute on August 17, 1971, plans to raise its direct loan commitments by about $5 billion in 1973 over the 1971 level. To avoid double counting, the direct loan commitment data do not reflect the innovative use of direct loan commitments resulting from the new tandem plan of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Under this plan, GNMA partly supports the market for guaranteed housing loans when requirements for market yields significantly exceed the interest rate ceiling placed on these loans by the guaranteeing agency. GNMA makes advance commitments to purchase these loans at a suitable purchase price, with the intention of reselling them at marketable yields. However, market conditions have recently improved and few such commitments are now being exercised; nonetheless, GNMA expects continued need for commitment support despite a low level need for followthrough by direct loan outlays and resale. Commitment levels under the plan are not projected at this time, but could reach several billion dollars in both 1972 and 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 73 Table E l . N E W C O M M I T M E N T S FOR FEDERAL C R E D I T P R O G R A M S (in millions of dollars) Agency or program {expenditure account programs in italics) 1971 actual Direct 1972 esti mate Guarloans Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance International development assistance Overseas Private Investment Corporation.. Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration Farmers Home Administration Commodity Credit Corporation Commodity loans Public Law 480—Long-term export credits.. Commerce: Economic Development Administration Maritime Administration Trade adjustment assistance Health, Education, and Welfare Expenditure account loans Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing Community development loans Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association i New communities fund Other mortgage credit Interior Transportation Veterans Administration: Housing loans and guarantees Insurance policy loans District of Columbia Emergency Loan Guarantee Board Export-Import Bank 2 Federal Home Loan Bank Board Small Business Administration Other agencies and programs __ Expenditure account loans Total, loan account Total, expenditure account Grand total 688 718 2 46 56 9 487 463 1,898 421 1,748 558 60 51 278 * 281 1,644 Direc loan* 350 790 10 Guarloans 200 121 31 662 286 2,426 450 2,580 598 63 1 25 101 339 4 344 50 2,251 1973 estimate Direct : loans 493 918 25 Guaranloans 136 105 51 689 11 3,288 450 1,988 705 73 _ 25 151 53 6 439 50 2,972 171 1,709 623 1,091 17 22,629 175 1,748 662 2,622 50 25,377 216 2,159 705 800 50 29,247 537 293 28 100 24 57 188 28 100 27 80 75 14 90 239 143 41 50 263 106 4,356 20 2,362 3,507 6 572 863 64 20 24 6,437 4,014 10,451 38,547 285 130 143 319 19 633 84 48 160 200 55 7,409 20 120 4,512 1,318 16 287 123 190 8 375 45 55 4,599 4 JO5 3,845 4,212 9,304 48,983 8,057 300 200 109 7,691 70 30 4,176 1,965 21 53,816 '"Less than $0.5 million. 1 To avoid double counting, excludes GNMA commitments (or guarantees of mortgage backed securities, and for direct purchases of FHA and VA mortgages under the tandem plan. 2 Excluded from budget totals by statute on Aug. 17, 1971; direct loan commitments excluded from this table are $7,033 million in 1972 and $7,400 million in 1973. 74 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Guarantees.—New commitments for guarantees of private loans are expected to rise rapidly from $39 billion in 1971 to $49 billion in 1972 and $54 billion in 1973. Most of the increase in new commitments is for guaranteed housing and community development loans by HUD, VA, and the Farmers Home Administration. In percentage terms, nonhousing related credit is growing somewhat faster—up 55% for the 2-year period compared to 37% for housing-related credit. To avoid double counting, GNMA commitments to guarantee private securities backed by guaranteed housing loans are excluded from table E - l ; such guarantees outstanding were increased by $3.0 billion in 1971 and are expected to increase by $2.6 billion in 1972 and $2.7 billion in 1973. The Export-Import Bank plans to raise its 1973 level of commitments for guaranteed loans by about $0.7 billion above the 1971 level. DISBURSEMENTS AND REPAYMENTS Gross disbursements for direct loans have the most immediate impact on the budget. In long-established programs, or in programs involving short-term loans, the cash outflow required for such disbursements usually is substantially offset by repayments on the outstanding portfolio of loans. On the other hand long-term loans, such as those which finance construction, can have a major net impact on the budget, since repayments in the early years often fall short of new loan outlays. Gross data on disbursements are adjusted to reflect writeoffs, forgiveness credits, and other noncash adjustments to loans outstanding, while repayments data are kept on a strictly cash basis. As a result, the net difference between disbursements and repayments in any year equals the change in the loans outstanding between the start and the end of the year—unless accounts are excluded from the budget. Net loan disbursements for all credit programs in the loan account are identical with data for net lending in Part 5 of the budget. Net loan disbursements for the loan account and the expenditure account are identical to the outlays shown as "loans" in the "additions to Federal assets" category in Special Analysis D (table D-3). SPECIAL ANALYSES 75 Table E-2. DISBURSEMENTS AND REPAYMENTS FOR DIRECT LOANS (in millions of dollars) . Agency or program {expenditure account programs in italics) 1971 actual Disbursements 1972 estimate Repayments Disbursements Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance 513 28 425 International development assistance 890 129 660 Overseas Private Investment Corporation. _ 6 Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration 627 175 576 Farmers Home Administration 2,279 2,498 3,319 Commodity Credit Corporation 400 280 450 Commodity loans 1,716 2,635 2,500 Public Law 480—Long term export credits __ 560 66 598 Commerce: Economic Development Administration 61 10 65 Maritime Administration 10 1 Trade adjustment assistance 10 Health, Education, and Welfare 74 8 112 Expenditure account loans 238 1 301 Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing 710 710 825 Community development loans 626 573 664 Federal Housing Administration 190 38 271 Government National Mortgage Association 536 293 393 New communities fund Other mortgage credit 175 56 119 Interior 12 3 26 Transportation 33 * 108 Treasury Department / 149 54 General Services Administration 13 28 Veterans Administration: Housing loans and guarantees 234 397 270 Insurance policy loans 143 104 130 District of Columbia 92 34 218 1 127 Export-Import Bank 1,406 1,455 19 Federal Home Loan Bank Board —14 65 467 Small Business Administration 481 257 30 Other agencies and programs 52 19 42 Expenditure account loans 25 12 Total, loan account 8,131 Total, expenditure account Grand Total „ , j i n • i J J L Repurchases and sales of loans included above Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration. Health, Education, and Welfare _ Housing and Urban Development Veterans Administration Export-Import Bank l General Services Administration. _ Other agencies (SBA) Total ... __ . . . . .... 3,943 7,014 8,258 3,021 4,527 1973 estimate Repayments Disbursements 98 110 317 510 16 136 142 175 669 3,492 3,585 313 450 201 4,191 392 1,837 1,915 2,112 29 705 44 14 8 60 43 / 13 170 7 13 8 1 111 / 815 582 74 900 708 320 890 630 78 518 313 5 75 25 55 897 63 4 57 152 18 43 559 107 51 85 30 223 17 14 589 110 8 323 1 20 222 19 8,354 8,560 36 7,246 2,243 3,490 9,489 11,844 Repur- Sales Sales 287 4 Repurchases 2,005 450 244 269 3,001 30 234 427 11 60 4 * 154 74 280 123 218 12,074 10,035 12,785 c n a ses Repayments Repurchases 390 . . . . 52 15 2,607 11,167 Sales 3,822 90 593 475 50 30 . 291 2,548 450 3,703 390 5,032 •Less than $0.5 million. 1 Excluded from budget totals by statute on Aug. 17, 1971; subsequent net lending for 1972 ($1,329 lillion) and 1973 ($1,187 million) included in table E - 5 . 76 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Although repaymeDts on prior loans are customarily offset against new loan disbursements, the use of loan repayments to make new loans in most instances is discretionary. Therefore, gross disbursements rather than net are the better measure of loan program levels. Federal guarantees of private loans, when not accompanied by interest subsidies, ordinarily have only minor and indirect budget consequences. Principal disbursements of Federal funds for guaranteed loans normally occur only when the borrower defaults, or in a few programs when holders of these loans exercise their repurchase options. Gross loan disbursements (adjusted)5 are expected to decline by only $0.2 billion from 1971 to 1973. Because of the offsets from repayments and loan sales, net loan disbursements in the same period will also decline—from $2.0 to $0.7 billion. Offsets from loan sales are detailed in table E-2. The majority of such sales are a function of statutory objective and program design. OUTSTANDING DIRECT AND GUARANTEED LOANS The outstanding principal amounts of direct and guaranteed loans provide useful dimensions of the scope of Federal credit assistance and lend perspective to its year-to-year growth (table E-3). By the end of 1973, direct loans outstanding will total $51.4 billion and guaranteed loans outstanding will total $189.4 billion—bringing the gross total to $240.8 billion. Outstanding direct loans will decrease by $1.7 billion from 1971 to 1973, due mainly to the exclusion of the Export-Import Bank from the 1973 totals. Outstanding guaranteed loans are estimated to rise by $23 billion in 1972 and by $26 billion during 1973. The net increase in outstanding loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration ($26 billion) accounts for 53% of the 1971-73 rise. Other anticipated major increases are for veterans housing guarantees ($6.8 billion), Farmers Home insured loans ($4.6 billion), and low-rent public housing guarantees ($3.5 billion). The amounts shown include both the guaranteed and nonguaranteed portions of outstanding loans in order to give a complete picture of the economic impact of these programs. The estimated contingent liability of the Federal Government by the end of 1973 will be $24 billion less than the $189 billion principal amount of the loans guaranteed. 5 N o n c a s h adjusting entries reduced gross loan disbursements by nearly $200 million in 1971. SPECIAL ANALYSES 77 Table E-3. OUTSTANDING DIRECT AND GUARANTEED LOANS FOR FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) . Agency or program (expenditure account loans in italics) 1971 actual Direct loans Guaranteed loans 1972 estimate Direct loans Guaranteed loans Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance 617 365 945 302 International development assistance 9,401 178 9,951 266 Overseas Private Investment Corporation. 225 6 315 Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration 5, 795 6,196 Farmers Home Administration 2,440 5,361 2,268 7,602 Commodity Credit Corporation 628 766 Commodity loans 1,869 2,530 Public Law 480—Long-term export credits. 2,241 2,810 Commerce: Economic Development Administration __ 394 10 444 II Maritime Administration 64 886 56 981 Trade adjustment assistance 10 50 Health, Education, and Welfare 536 2,611 605 3,932 Expenditure account loans Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing Community development loans Federal Housing Administration Government National Mortgage Association 1 New communities fund Other mortgage credit Interior Transportation Treasury Department Veterans' Administration: Housing loans and guarantees Insurance policy loans District of Columbia Emergency Loan Guarantee Board Export-Import Bank 2 Federal Home Loan Bank Board Small Business Administration Other agencies and programs Expenditure account loans 1,751 2,052 90 9,463 805 3,042 794 77,214 5,091 3,777 201 40 4,236 108 2,587 37,597 1,012 414 20 5,665 164 1,882 390 100 11,094 887 3,382 991 89,526 1,531 1,038 173 3,833 223 91 4,083 1,126 10,3/8 22 6,664 1,661 824 2,330 3,471 491 48 22 665 Guaranteed loans 332 322 342 10,004 15 1,100 50 5,892 2,065 4,965 56 240 1973 estimate Direct loans 132 540 117 2,298 40,902 1,036 582 20 115 2,150 153 2,125 1,890 439 133 110 965 1,234 4,381 5 3,848 244 146 3,929 1,989 1,049 748 142 2,227 390 271 299 Total, loan account Total, expenditure account 32,769 20,387 28,074 22,670 GrandTotal 53,156 140,118 50,744 163,460 51,420 13,007 3,498 103,254 282 760 225 44,350 70 115 2,742 2,923 127 320 27,868 23,553 189,410 1 To avoid double counting, excludes G N M A guarantee of mortgage backed s e c u r i t i e s — 1 9 7 1 1973 a m o u n t s are $3,431 million, $6,061 million, $8,740 million. 2 Excluded from budget totals by s t a t u t e on August 17, 1971. See table E - 5 for 1 9 7 2 - 3 . 78 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 INTEREST SUBSIDIES The primary objective of many Federal credit programs is to provide access to credit that might not otherwise be available for certain desirable purposes. More favorable terms than otherwise available to unassisted borrowers—such as lower interest rates, longer maturities, and higher loan-to-value ratios—are a usual result of providing this access to credit, whether by direct or guaranteed lending. Additional assistance in meeting the costs of credit is often a further feature of these programs. Such assistance includes concessionary interest rates, waiver of service fees or insurance premiums, and periodic payments of interest or other debt service subsidies for guaranteed loans. This discussion focuses on interest subsidies and selected approaches to measuring both the immediate and long-run value of these subsidies. Additional subsidy elements—such as costs of administration and losses, forgiveness of part or all of loan principal, or the subsidies resulting from tax-exempt interest—are not fully covered or reflected. Direct loan subsidies.—Unlike most other Federal outlays, direct loans are largely or wholly repayable, generally with interest. Therefore, the long-run net costs of direct loan programs usually are substantially less than the initial gross outlays. Few direct loan programs are fully self-supporting, however. Even where statutory interest rate formulas are designed to reflect Treasury borrowing costs, there is often no additional fee assessed to reimburse the Government for administrative costs and provision for losses, or for other cost factors not now considered. The net budget impact of interest charged borrowers on direct loans in any single year includes the subsidy costs arising from both new loans and outstanding loans made in previous years. By the same token, all new loan commitments at submarket interest rates will add to the net budget outlays for all future years during which the loan remains outstanding. Once newly subsidized loans are committed, the future costs are largely predetermined and the net subsidy costs become relatively uncontrollable. Guaranteed loan subsidies.—In recent years, an increasing number of guaranteed loan programs have provided significant subsidies in order to help meet the needs of their borrowers. In some cases, guarantee fees cover part or all of administrative expenses and probable losses; for others, there are no such charges. In some programs, a Government agency makes a direct loan at interest rates below the market and resells the loan with its guarantee, either at a discount which provides a marketable yield or with a commitment to pay additional interest in periodic installments to the private purchaser of the loan. SPECIAL ANALYSES 79 Long-term contracts to provide debt service payments are the most frequently used subsidy device. These commitments may cover both interest and principal amounts as they do for low-rent public housing loans, but more often cover some designated share of interest costs. This approach is being used for a growing variety of loan programs, including those for low- and moderate-income housing, student expenses for higher education, academic facilities, and medical facilities. Just as for direct loan,s, the net value of subsidies for guaranteed loans includes those arising from both new and outstanding loans. New subsidies add to net budget outlays in future years; and some meaningful measure of their ultimate net cost is needed to lend perspective to budget decisions. Subsidy measurement.—One way that the impact of future subsidies could be viewed would be simply to total all future payments. However, because of interest, a dollar payable at some future date is not worth as much as a dollar paid out today. Therefore such a simple total would substantially overstate the true value; and a better way to measure the ultimate value of the successive annual loan subsidies would be in "present value" terms, in accordance with the recommendations of the President's Commission on Budget Concepts. This is accomplished by capitalizing (or discounting) future subsidies at an appropriate interest rate. The selection of an appropriate rate might vary with analytical objectives. The choice for discounting both direct and guaranteed loans in this analysis is 8%—a rate approximately equivalent to the private market rate on guaranteed loans, if an allowance for guarantee costs is added. This selection (over the Treasury borrowing rate for instance) has the advantage of valuing direct loan assets near the price which they should bring if sold to private investors, and also more nearly measures the benefits provided to borrowers. The rate, however, may overstate costs for direct loans retained in Government accounts. Although variations in the characteristics of individual loans or loan programs are usually translated into variations in market interest rates, the assumption of a uniform discount rate facilitates analysis. Table E-4 provides estimates of subsidy values that will result from loan commitments made or to be made in the years 1971 through 1973. Both the annual subsidy rates and the discounted present value of all future subsidies are provided. However, estimates of the subsidy elements in the portfolio of loans already outstanding—direct or guaranteed—are not attempted in this analysis. While the estimates are primarily illustrative rather than exact or comprehensive they do facilitate year-to-year comparisons of new subsidy commitments. Loans subsidies, annual basis.—The annual subsidy values attributable to commitments foi subsidized direct loans would grow from $270 million for 1971 commitments to $345 million for 1973 commitments, while the corresponding annual costs for subsidies on guaranteed loan commitments will grow from $350 million to $516 million during the same years. Table E-4. ESTIMATED INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUE FOR MAJOR DIRECT AND GUARANTEED LOAN COMMITMENTS (in millions of dollars) Rate* (percent) Term* (years) Annual subsidy per $100 million 2 commitments Commitments 1971 actual 1972 est. subsidies committed in— 1973 est. 1971 1972 1973 DIRECT LOANS Funds appropriated to the President: International security assistance I nternational development assistance Agriculture: Price support CCC: Public Law 480_____ Farmers Home Administration Rural Electrification Administration Health, Education, and Welfare: Capital for student loans Higher education facilities Housing and Urban Development: Urban renewal Low-rent public housing College housing FHAfund . VA: Insurance policy loans Export-Import Bank 6 Small Business Administration: Business and investment fund Disaster loan fund Total, major subsidized direct loan commitments See footnotes at end of table. 5.3 2.5 13.6 40.0 1.8 4.4 688 696 350 773 493 900 101.2 368.5 51.5 409.3 72.5 476.6 3.5 2.0 4.0 2.0 0.8 25.0 31.3 35.0 5.0 4.2 3.1 4.5 1,748 558 463 487 2,579 598 325 572 1,983 705 310 563 65.8 251.4 166.6 259.7 97.1 269.4 116.9 305.1 74.9 317.6 111.5 300.3 H.9 3.0 14.0 40.0 3.8 4.0 278 14 339 22 53 3 87.7 6.8 106.9 10.7 16.7 1.5 6.0 0.0 3.0 5.6 4.0 6.0 0.8 1.5 40.0 20.0 10.0 7.0 2.3 4.3 4.0 1.7 2.4 1.2 534 171 75 167 144 2,362 572 175 100 265 130 7,352 615 216 100 316 122 7,400 8.7 10.4 36.4 28.3 23.8 148.0 9.3 10.6 48.5 44.9 21.5 460.7 10.0 13.1 48.5 53.5 20.2 463.7 5.6 4.1 11.7 7.2 1.5 2.3 273 299 243 390 275 100 31.8 36.8 28.3 48.0 32.1 12.3 1,631.9 2,038.8 2,024.9 3 5 Table E-4. ESTIMATED INTEREST SUBSIDY VALUE FOR MAJOR DIRECT AND GUARANTEED LOAN COMMITMENTS—Con. (in millions of dollars) Rate l {percent) Agency and program Term l (years) Annual subsidy per $100 million commitments 2 Commitments 1971 actual Present value at 8%—future subsidies committed in— 1972 est. 1973 est. 1971 1972 1973 GUARANTEED LOANS Agriculture: Rural housing insurance Agricultural credit insurance Health, Education, and Welfare: Student loan insurance Higher education facilities.... Housing and urban development: Urban renewal Low-rent public housing College housing Mortgage insurance (subsidized) Export-Import Bank:• Portfolio sales _ 7.2 5.0 33.0 40.0 0.6 2.6 1,384 514 1,605 821 2,144 1,144 102.0 157.5 118.3 251.6 158.1 350.6 «4.4 7.0 10.0 30.0 2.2 0.8 1,044 600 1,160 620 1,351 400 157.8 56.0 175.3 57.8 204.2 37.3 3.4 0.0 3.0 2.0 6.0 0.8 41.5 31.0 34.0 4.0 5.3 5.9 3.8 4.5 1.1 1,091 1,709 262 2,840 269 2,622 1,748 200 6,350 150 800 2,159 200 5,799 50 40.8 1,213.1 113.3 1,495.1 10.2 98.2 1,240.7 86.5 3,343.0 5.7 30.0 1,532.5 86.5 3,052.9 1.9 3,345.9 5,377.2 5,454.0 4,977.8 7,416.0 7,478.8 ._ _ „ _ _ Total, major subsidized and guaranteed loan commitments Grand total 1 2 _ _ If terms vary these are estimated averages. Interest rates include insurance premiums where these are charged. Based on 8% value of funds. 3 Weighted average: actual rate is 2%, first 10 years; 3% for last 30 years. 4 Zero interest rate applies only while student is in school plus 9 months (average period 3 years); thereafter rate is 3 % on direct loans, 7% for insured loans. 5 Various interest rates and maturities. * Excluded from budget totals by statute on Aug. 17, 1971. 82 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Loans subsidies, present value basis.—The annua1 subsidy payments for 1971 commitments imply future budget outlays of $14 billion over the life of the loans. However, after discounting for interest, the present value of these continuing annual subsidies on direct and guaranteed loans committed in 1971 is estimated at $5 billion. For 1972 commitments this present value will be $7.5 bil ion and for 1973 commitments will be $7.5 billion, a 2-year growth of $2.5 billion over the 1971 level. CREDIT AGENCIES OUTSIDE THE BUDGET The transactions of several major federally sponsored credit agencies, created to facilitate financing of important programs of national interest, are excluded from Federal budget totals. The majority of these agencies are privately owned and managed. All, however, are subject to some form of Federal supervision, and all consult the Treasury Department, either by law or by custom, in planning the marketing of their obligations. These agencies are essentially financial intermediaries, channeling funds from one sector of the capital markets to another. They borrow, under Federal auspices, in the "agency sector" of the bond markets, and lend these funds—for specifically authorized purposes—either directly or by purchasing loans originated by their special clientele. Some of these agencies began as secondary market operations, or as facilities providing advances of reserves to financial institutions. They had a basic function of providing liquidity to primary lenders in times of tight money conditions, either by buying their loans or by making advances. These loans were then sold or repaid when capital market conditions improved. However, recent policy has converted these institutions to more permanent institutional sources of new capital funds. Pending legislative proposals would add a new student loan marketing association and a District of Columbia development bank. Four of the enterprises identified in table E-5 are actually systems of regional institutions which pool their borrowings to gain increased efficiency. Funds loaned by these agencies are not obtained entirely from borrowings in the capital markets. Sale of capital stock and retained earnings also provide some resources for lending. Moreover, the timing of borrowing versus lending will vary from year to year. Table E-5 shows only the lending side of these credit activities; but table C-8 in Special Analysis C (Borrowing, Debt, and Investment) provides complimentary data on their borrowing. SPECIAL ANALYSES 83 Table E-5. NET CHANGES IN OUTSTANDING LOANS FOR MAJOR GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED CREDIT PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) Agency Housing and Urban Development: Federal National Mortgage Assoc.1 Export-Import Bank 2 Farm Credit Administration: Bank for cooperatives Federal intermediate credit banks Federal land banks Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal home loan banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp Total3 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate standing end of 1973 estimate 2,168 4,987 1,329 4,702 1,187 25,263 8,223 287 812 585 196 886 625 223 1,019 630 2,455 7,815 8,834 -2,995 469 1,159 876 1,900 1,600 10,300 2,945 1,326 10,058 11,261 65,835 1 2 Loans purchased at discount are recorded at acquisition cost. Excluded from budget totals by statute on Aug. 17, 1971, with loans outstanding of $5,707 million. 3 Federal Reserve banks, excluded from these totals, loaned $56 million to their member banks in 1971, increasing outstanding loans to $508 million; estimates not available for other years. Federal agencies.—In addition to this year's removal of the ExportImport Bank from the budget totals, pending legislation would establish a Federal financing bank to consolidate and improve the efficiency of numerous Federal agency borrowing and loan guarantee activities, but the bank would not change the budget treatment of these activities. Legislation is also proposed to establish an environmental financing authority which would be a conduit for certain local Government borrowings which would not be included in the Federal budget. The agencies currently in existence expect a 1971-73 lending increase of1 $21 billion to be supported by a $19 billion increase in borrowing. Of the increase in lending, $10 billion will be invested in federally guaranteed loans. SUMMARY OF FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED CREDIT The Federal role in the credit markets affects both the supply of and the demand for credit. Both of these credit impacts can be aggregated, provided adjustments are made to exclude double counting where guaranteed loans as well as Federal and agency debt instruments are in fact held directly in Government accounts or by off-budget credit enterprises. Table E-6 shows the net new loan funds advanced to the public, either directly from Federal budget accounts or through the Federal assistance provided by Federal guarantees of private lending or through the lending of federally sponsored agencies. Total lending under Federal auspices is expected to reach $276 billion in 1973, a 2-year increase of $65 billion and 3 1 % over the 1971 level of $211 billion. 1 Includes borrowing of Export-Import Bank, not shown in table C-8 because it is added to Federal debt. 84 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table E-6. NET CHANGES IN OUTSTANDING FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY ASSISTED CREDIT (in billions of dollars) Type of credit assistance Increase or decrease in credit 1971 actual Directloans Guaranteed loans Less guaranteed loans held in direct loan portfolio by GNMA In portfolios of sponsored agencies: ByFNMA ByFHLMC By Export-Import Bank» Net, guaranteed loans Loans by sponsored agencies 2 Total, Federal and federally assisted lending... 1 2 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Outstanding end of 1973 estimate 2.0 3.3 0.7 51.4 16.1 23.3 25.9 189.4 .3 -.1 -.6 4.4 2.2 .5 -.1 4.9 .5 -.1 4.4 .3 -.1 24.9 1.5 .1 13.2 18.1 21.8 158.6 1.3 10.1 11.3 65.8 16.5 31.5 33.8 275.9 Excluded from budget totals by s t a t u t e on Aug. 17, 1971. Excludes Federal Reserve banks. A complimentary aggregate of Federal and federally assisted borrowing is presented in Special Analysis C, Borrowing, Debt, and Investment (table C-9), showing the Federal impact on the credit markets in terms of funds raised in the markets. SUMMARY OF LEGISLATION AUTHORIZING NEW FEDERAL CREDIT PROGRAMS AND BROADENED This summary lists legislation enacted during the last session of Congress which authorizes new Federal credit programs or revises existing programs in major respects. It excludes simple extensions in expiring laws and increases in funds for continuing programs. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE The Rural Electrification Act Amendments of 1971—Public Law 92-12 Establishes a rural telephone bank to meet capital needs of the rural telephone system. Federally owned stock is to be retired as soon as possible after 1985. Authorizes the public and private sale of unguaranteed debt instruments. Authorizes loans to corporations and public-bodies for the purpose of financing improvements to the telephone lines, facilities, or systems. 1971 Amendments to the Consolidated Farmers Home Administration Act—Public Law 92-173 Authorizes the Secretary of Agriculture to insure emergency loans under the Consolidated Farmers Home Administration Act of 1961 whenever funds are advanced or a loan is purchased by a non-Government lender. SPECIAL ANALYSES 85 DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE Public Health Service Act—Public Law 92-157 Authorizes a 90% Federal guarantee and a 3 % interest subsidy for private construction loans for medical, dental, and other health professions personnel teaching facilities. The Nurse Training Act of 1971—Public Law 92-158 Authorizes a 90% Federal guarantee and a 3 % interest subsidy for private construction loans for nonprofit private nursing schools. VETERANS ADMINISTRATION Authorization to sell direct veterans loans—Public Law 92-66 Authorizes Veterans Administration to sell, at reasonable prices under prevailing mortgage market conditions, direct loans made to veterans for the purchase of a home, farm, or business. FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION Farm Credit Act of 1971—Public Law 92-181 Modifies the authority of the Farm Credit System as follows: (a) Authorizes Federal land banks and production credit associations (PCA) to make nonfarm housing loans in rural areas; (b) Raises limitation on land bank loans to 85% of appraised property value; (c) Authorizes the issuance of a ioint security, making each of the three branches of the system obligated for the liabilities of the other; (d) Reduces to 80% the farmer voting media percentage requirement for cooperatives to be eligible to borrow from the banks for cooperatives; (e) Provides new authority for financial-related services necessary for on-farm operations; (f) Provides the authority for land bank and PCA loans to nonfarmers for other than housing when directly related to on-farm operating needs; and (g) Subjects obligations issued by the system to restrictions similar to those provided for by Regulation Q of the Federal Reserve Board. EMERGENCY LOAN GUARANTEE BOARD Emergency Loan Guarantee Act—Public Law 92-70 Authorizes the Emergency Loan Guarantee Board chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury to guarantee loans up to $250 million when it is deemed necessary in order to prevent adverse and serious effects on the economy, credit is not otherwise available on reasonable terms, and there is reasonable assurance that the loan will be repaid. EXPORT-IMPORT BANK Export Expansion Act of 1971—Public Law 92-126 Excludes the receipts and disbursements of the Export-Import Bank from the totals of the budget, and exempts the Bank's operations from any annual expenditures and net lending limitations 86 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 imposed on the budget. Increases the limitations on the aggregate amount of outstanding loans, guarantees, and insurance to $20 billion. SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Amendments to the Small Business Investment Act of 1958—Public Law 92-213 Authorizes Small Business Administration to guarantee principal and interest on debentures issued by small business investment companies. SPECIAL ANALYSIS F PRINCIPAL FEDERAL STATISTICAL PROGRAMS There is growing recognition of the need for better statistical information on which to base decisions required to conduct modern government and business activities. The increasing magnitude and complexity of government and of society clearly require more accurate, more prompt, and more relevant data for economic and social policy formulation, for government program guidance and for internal government management. Many of the deficiencies in Government statistics can be traced to outmoded and underfunded statistical programs overburdened by pressing new demands. For example, after the wage-price freeze was announced on August 15, a major deficiency in the consumer price series was brought to public attention. Less than half of the series is based on monthly information; more than half is collected quarterly or semiannually. The fact that there is no current index specifically measuring changes in wage rates also became evident. Early retail trade estimates are often subject to considerable revision. Since retail sales data are used to estimate about 30% of GNP, these revisions seriously affect the early GNP figures. Late and deficient inventory data also hamper the compilation of the GNP data. Weak data on construction, especially for State and local governments, add to these difficulties. The absence of data on costs, insurance, and freight limit flexibility in presenting data on foreign trade. It is clear that the statistical system is not adequate for Government informational needs for economic policy decisions. Although much emphasis is being given to economic statistics in 1973 because of their policy implications, it is to be noted that by far the largest expenditures of the Government are for the vast and rapidly growing social programs in the fields of health, education, public safety, housing, ands income maintenance. Improved statistics are urgently needed in many of these fields for program planning and evaluation as well as for overall policymaking and establishing of priorities in the Federal budget. After some years of careful development, it will now be possible to move ahead with a greatly improved program of crime statistics, a critical field much neglected in the past. New approaches are emerging in educational statistics which promise to measure the output or achievement of our educational system in a reliable and consistent manner. New information is being sought on the adequacy of our health service delivery systems, which is the main new focus of federally supported health programs. A long endorsed continuing survey on the adequacy of our housing supply and on turnover in occupancy will be initiated. The top priority programs in evaluating specific proposals for the budget are: (1) To extend and improve the basic data required for the system of national accounts (defined broadly to include national income and product, input-output, balance of payments, flow of funds, 87 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 and national sector balance sheets); (2) to improve the accuracy and timeliness of current economic indicators; (3) to organize a set of social indicators within a framework for developing a system of social and demographic accounts; and (4) to develop a more systematic and comprehensive program of State and local area data. Accordingly, the President's budget for 1973 provides for a substantial increase for statistics. Funds requested for the principal current statistical programs total about $281 million for 1973, an increase of more than 18% over estimated obligations of $238 million in 1972, which in turn is about 16% above actual obligations of $205 million in 1971. The increases for economic statistics are 15% for 1972 and 17% for 1973, with most of the funds going to data to improve the GNP accounts, especially to obtain more accurate and timely data for retail sales and services, inventories, wages and prices. Increases for social statistics are more than 20% for 1973 and 18% for 1972, with a large part of these funds going to statistics on health and crime. In addition to these continuing activities, the Federal Government conducts a number of periodic programs, such as the census of population and housing every 10 years, the economic censuses every 5 years, and the periodic revision of the Consumer Price Index. Amounts required for these programs fluctuate widely from year to year depending upon the nature and periodicity of the activities. Recommendations for the periodic programs aggregate $35.7 million for 1973, a third of which represents costs of completing the processing and publishing of the 19th decennial census from funds appropriated in prior j^ears. To indicate the relative magnitudes of the statistical programs carried out by different agencies and to aid in evaluating the Government's overall statistical system, budget data are presented in two tables. Significant components of current Federal statistical activity classified by broad subjects and the amounts involved for them are summarized in table F - l . Information by agencies, for both current and periodic programs, is shown in table F-2. When adjustments are made because of reorganization of statistical units or activities, or new fields are covered, figures are carried back to both the current and previous years so that all 3 years covered by the special analysis are on a comparable basis. ECONOMIC STATISTICS Labor statistics.—Major emphasis in labor statistics will be placed on extending and improving wage statistics to provide information needed to guide economic stabilization policies and to evaluate better the effects of programs. In addition, several major undertakings by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to maintain or improve employment and unemployment statistics are recommended. A key proposal for BLS is the development, as part of an integrated system of wage statistics, of an index of wage rate changes which will be unaffected by changes in the amount of overtime or part-time work or changes in industrial and occupational mix ($600 thousand). A start on the development of this index will be made during 1972. In addition, work will be initiated on the best method of extending the monthly series on average weekly hours and earnings to cover nonproduction and supervisory workers in all branches of nonagri SPECIAL ANALYSES Table 89 F-1. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL CURRENT STATISTICAL PROGRAMS, BY BROAD SUBJECT AREAS (in million* of dollars) Program rrogram Economic statistics _ Labor statistics.. Prices and price indexes Production and distribution statistics Construction and housing statistics National income and business financial accounts Demographic and social statistics Health related statistics Population statistics Educational statistics Crime statistics Social security and welfare statistics. Total principal current programs _ _ 1971 1972 actual estimate estimate 1973 130.0 148.9 173.7 43.7 9.3 55.9 5.5 15.6 54.0 11.6 58.2 7.6 17.6 63.1 12.4 65.5 9.4 23.3 74.8 88.7 107.1 36.3 3.6 15.1 5.9 13.9 43.7 3.5 16.4 10.7 14.4 52.6 5.1 19.1 16.0 14.3 204.8 237.6 280.8 cultural employment ($150 thousand). The program of industrywage surveys will be strengthened to achieve a better balance between manufacturing and the faster-growing nonmanufacturing segments and to permit more frequent surveys in selected important industries ($400 thousand). Studies of productivity will be increased ($100 thousand) to provide additional insight into factors contributing to inflation and their interrelationships. A start will be made looking toward the long-term improvement of the monthly unemployment statistics, collected by the Bureau of the Census for the BLS as part of the current population survey. A test will be made of the effect of collecting labor force data for all weeks in a month and averaging the results, instead of using a single week to represent a month as is presently done. For this purpose, a separate sample will be developed, which, if the test proves successful in reducing irregularities in the statistics, will provide information needed for appropriate seasonal adjustment of the series ($1.15 million). Funds are requested for two projects to maintain the quality of labor statistics series. One is the revision of employment and payroll records and statistics to conform to the revised Standard Industrial Classification system which will be issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) during 1972 ($500 thousand for BLS and $2.3 million for Manpower Administration in Grants to States). The second provides funds to continue the conversion of BLS computer systems to the new Department of Labor computer which should eventually permit taking over statistical functions now performed manually or on outmoded equipment ($450 thousand). Other major changes in labor statistics are related to extension and improvement of statistics needed to support particular programs. Notable is the expansion of information for the use of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and affiliated State agencies. States receive grants to develop and operate statistical systems to collect and analyze data on occupational injuries and illnesses. This program, initiated on a small scale in 1971, will more than double 90 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 between 1972 and 1973 ($1.75 million). In addition, OSHA transfers funds to BLS to develop the statistics needed nationally and to work with the States in implementing a coordinated program. Funds requested in 1973 will expand the sample survey started in 1972 and provide the basis for an historical series of national data on occupational injuries and illnesses by detailed industry. Concurrently, more detailed impact and causal surveys will be conducted in selected industries, building on the findings of the methodological work undertaken during 1972 ($800 thousand). Prices and price indexes.—The major project in the price statistics program in 1973 continues to be taking the consumer expenditure survey and other work necessary for the revision of the Consumer Price Index, described below under periodic programs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will continue in 1973 a program, started in the current year by reallocation of resources from other projects, of collecting for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly prices of some commodity and service items which have been collected quarterly or less frequently. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will continue development of a monthly General Price Index, covering a spectrum of prices broader, more accurately measured, and more detailed than those presently available in either the CPI or the Wholesale Price Index, and will also provide data showing changes in prices for goods and services at various stages of the production process ($225 thousand). BLS will also extend ($200 thousand) its ongoing program of statistical measures of the price competitiveness of U.S. products in world trade by developing annual indexes of export prices covering all durable goods. The construction price index program of the Census Bureau, now covering residential construction, will be extended to initiate work on the development of indexes for educational, hospital and other institutional structures ($259 thousand). Production and distribution statistics.—A major improvement in retail trade statistics compiled monthly by the Census Bureau will result from an expansion of the sample of reporting stores to reduce the variance in national totals and increase the reliability of estimates by kind-of-business, thus permitting publication for more business categories and geographic detail; and from better maintenance of operating procedures necessary to minimize nonsampling error in the current reports ($800 thousand). The monthly service trade statistics program will be extended to provide data for certain trades—employment agencies, real estate and insurance agencies, and various types of repair services—not now covered ($175 thousand). Improvement of wholesale and retail inventory statistics will entail a substantial effort by Census ($400 thousand) to gather data from nonmerchant wholesalers—bulk petroleum distributors, assemblers of farm products, and agent brokers and manufacturers sales branches— to provide some additional kind-of-business detail and to conduct research and experiment designed to achieve better reporting of inventory data. More intensive work with the monthly survey of manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders, will improve data on manufacturers' inventories. It will enhance usefulness of the survey results by providing additional information on sales to the Federal SPECIAL ANALYSES 91 Government and the impact of keeping Government accounts on the accrual basis, reporting of defense industries in total and by stage of fabrication, and expanding the reporting panel and generally improving the survey operation to increase reliability and accuracy of the data ($300 thousand). A second increment in funds ($700 thousand) for the Census Bureau is required for development of a computerized directory of all U.S. business firms and their establishments. By providing Federal agencies with a frame for sample survey panels and standardized size and industry classification codes, the directory will make it possible to improve the comparability among Government statistics. In addition, this program, scheduled to be completed in 1975, will provide a core of annual economic data and permit reductions in the program of periodic economic censuses. Other projects to be undertaken by the Census Bureau are the expansion of the textile import program which will provide the Secretary of Commerce information required to determine quotas for some goods for which adequate data are not now available, particularly those of manmade fibers and wool ($142 thousand), and the initiation of work to provide estimates of costs incurred by business firms to improve the quality of the environment ($100 thousand). A major program is to be initiated in 1973 to collect (Customs Bureau—$2 million) and tabulate and publish (Census—$525 thousand) data on imports valued inclusive of insurance and freight expenses necessary to bring them to the United States. These data will enhance our ability to study trade patterns by commodity and country of origin, and the relationship of imports to domestic production, as well as provide more accurate data for the balance of payments accounts. Significant program changes in other agencies include: in the Statistical Reporting Service, Department of Agriculture, the expansion to 13 additional States of the multiple-frame sampling program to provide improved livestock estimates ($662 thousand), and the modernization of data handling and communications to improve the collection, processing, and dissemination of statistics ($300 thousand); in the Economic Research Service, Department of Agriculture, expansion of statistical data on foreign trade, production, and consumption of agricultural products ($100 thousand), and development of information to support rural development projects ($100 thousand); and in the National Marine Fisheries Service, Department of Commerce, an expanded program of collection, analysis, and dissemination of data on production, processing, and distribution of commercial fishery products and related economic aspects of the industry ($850 thousand). Construction and housing statistics.—Substantial improvements will be made in the accuracy and timeliness of the Census Bureau's estimates of State and local government construction and for the value put in place of new multiunit dwellings and farm construction ($510 thousand). Data will also be collected on the number, location, physical characteristics, and prices of mobile home placements ($233 thousand). Authorization was received by HUD in 1972 for planning and preparatory work for an annual housing survey. Additional funds ($1 million) are included in the 1973 budget to institute collection of data 92 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 both on a national level annually and for 60 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas which will rotate on a 3-year cycle (20 different areas each year). National income and business financial accounts.—In recognition of the central position of the national economic and balance of payments accounts in economic policy, a major expansion in the program of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Social and Economic Statistics Administration, Department of Commerce, is planned to strengthen the accuracy and usefulness of these accounts. The total program increase will serve to: Increase the accuracy of the current monthly and quarterly estimates ($235 thousand); permit more comprehensive and accurate benchmarking of these estimates, principally through improvements of the input-output tables and time series on real product by industry ($400 thousand); improve the details of the national accounts, chiefly in providing new measures for evaluating the impact of Federal Government activity on the economy ($225 thousand); extend the estimates of the distribution of personal income by size ($120 thousand); provide new measures of the economic impact of changes in the environment ($260 thousand); and provide in-depth analysis in the balance of payments presentations of the impact of international U.S. investment by developing new comprehensive measures of the economic activity of multinational corporations ($575 thousand). Necessary research will also be conducted to improve the lists and classifications of the leading, coincident, and lagging indicators published in the "Business Conditions Digest" ($120 thousand). A study of business use of the new asset depreciation range system to be conducted by the Internal Revenue Service ($1 million) will provide information on the extent of capital depreciation in the economy. Measurement of depreciation for the national income accounts will be improved by this study. A significant increase in the information gathered on corporation finance is proposed in the Federal Trade Commission budget ($400 thousand). The "Quarterly Financial Report'' is to be expanded to cover mining and trade industries. A line of business survey will be instituted to provide more detailed annual data on sales and net income by product for large conglomerate firms. A monthly profits survey will be initiated to generate more timely and frequent data on this important economic indicator. The Bureau of the Census will undertake a major expansion ($658 thousand) in its State and local government financial statistics program. Revenue data now collected quarterly, but relating principally to tax revenue, will be expanded to include nontax revenues such as user charges, fines, and transfer payments. State and local government finance data will be tabulated so that data collected on a fiscal year basis, regardless of when fiscal years end, can be compiled on a calendar year basis, thus providing an important component for national income accounts which must now be roughly estimated. Research will be conducted on ways to obtain information on expenditures with suitable breakdowns, such as for purchases, transfers, and interest. To meet the requirements for General Revenue Sharing programs, procedures will be designed for collection of data on "general revenue from own sources" for the 38,000 State and local general government units. An amount of $500 thousand which was included in the 1972 SPECIAL ANALYSES 93 budget of the Council of Economic Advisers has been shifted to the National Commission on Productivity for statistical work connected with the analysis of relations between output, production, productivity, prices and wages. The major part of this amount is transferred to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for this work. With substantial improvements in primary economic data sources underlying the national economic accounts, this comprehensive program will provide a considerably improved basis for analyzing the problems of inflation and economic growth within the context of the accounts. DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL STATISTICS Important expansions will continue in 1973 in the fields of demographic and social statistics, especially in sectors in which extensive developmental work has been underway in recent years. HecUth-related statistics.—Most of the expansion proposed for this field is concentrated in four areas. First, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) will develop information on the effectiveness and cost of health services delivery systems, such as "ambulatory" care received in doctors' offices and out-patient clinics ($1 million). Second, NCHS and the National Center for Health Services Research and Development will jointly carry out demonstration projects in developing a Federal-State cooperative statistical system to measure health status and needs and usage of health services below the national level ($3 million). To facilitate more effective State participation in the system, NCHS will also expand its professional and technical assistance and training activities ($250 thousand). Third, the National Cancer Institute will expand its data gathering programs in conjunction with the stepped-up war against cancer, continue the national cancer survey now in its concluding stages, and conduct epidemiological studies with regard to high-risk and migrant populations ($1 million). Finally, the Food and Drug Administration will accelerate its various surveillance activities, with the largest part of a $3 million increase reflecting informational needs connected with new responsibilities of FDA in the product safety field. Educational statistics.—The National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) will expand activities in two principal sectors (with a total agency increase of some $2.7 million). First, there will be a continuation and expansion of the program of longitudinal studies begun last year in which specific groups of students will be followed over time in order to provide new insights on the impact of education on the recipients and on their attitudes and motivations. The plans for 1973 include the first followup of a cohort of high school seniors initially canvassed the previous year and the start of a cohort of children in the early grades. Second, there will be an expansion in data analysis, research, and technical assistance to users in conjunction with the national assessment of educational progress, the first comprehensive and consistent national program for measuring and evaluating the learning process of students through specialized testing in a variety of fields. (This program is officially under NCES jurisdiction for the first time in 1973 but budget figures for previous years have been adjusted to include earlier costs.) 94 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 Social security arid welfare statistics.—No major program increases are proposed for this field in 1973 but program content will be adjusted as needed within existing budgetary limits to meet current data requirements. Crime statistics.—A continued expansion is proposed in the statistical program for the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration primarily for two key activities (with a total increase of around $5 million). First, after some years of experimentation and testing, a national survey of crime victimization—that is, measurement of the incidence, impact, and cost of crime from the standpoint of the victim—will be initiated together with a number of metropolitan area studies. The group to be surveyed represents both the population in general, by means of household interviews, and entrepreneurs of small businesses who are among the principal targets for robbery, burglary, and larcenies. Second, in cooperation with State agencies, a "crime transaction" statistics system will be initiated to provide a coherent picture of the criminal justice process. When fully developed and in operation, this system will replace the many unrelated and generally inadequate and inconsistent record systems—such as separate data on arrests, court actions, paroles, etc.—and will bring together in a single record all of the actions starting with a given arrest, such as the charge made, whether indicted, whether bail was allowed, what the court verdict was, the length of sentence if convicted, the length of time served, and whether or not paroled. Population statistics.—Several projects are proposed for the Bureau of the Census to improve various aspects of population statistics. Methodological research in the Current Population Survey will be expanded ($250 thousand), and a separate panel for more comprehensive annual data on income and related subjects will be developed ($550 thousand). Current population estimates will be improved ($350 thousand), and research will be conducted in the use of administrative records together with sample survey data to provide periodic population data for local areas ($500 thousand). PERIODIC PROGRAMS 1972 Census of Governments.—Information for this quinquennial census is obtained from State and local governments. The requested funds will be used to complete a census of governmental organization, finish field data collection and process the results of the survey of taxable property values, and collect data on State and local government finances and employment. The 1973 request represents the fourth of a five-stage request for funds to conduct the census. 1972 economic censuses.—The 1973 request represents the third of a five-stage request for the census which will provide economic data for calendar year 1972. This census covers establishments classified in retail, wholesale, and service trades, construction, transportation, manufactures, and mineral industries. These statistics provide information on product shipments, sales by merchandise or commodity line, inventories, number of employees, man-hours worked, payroll costs, capital expenditures, and cost of materials, fuels and electric SPECIAL ANALYSES 95 Table F-2. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL PROGRAMS, BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Agency 1972 1971 1973 CURRENT PROGRAMS • • • • • • • • • • • • • Department of Agriculture: • Agricultural Research Service • Economic Research Service Statistical Reporting Service Department of Commerce: • Bureau of Domestic Commerce • Bureau of International Commerce • Economic Development Administration • National Marine Fisheries Service. - - - - - Social and Economic Statistics Administration x Department of Defense: • Corps of Engineers Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: National Center for Health Statistics • Other HSMHA National Center for Educational Statistics • National Institutes of Health • Food and Drug Administration • Social and Rehabilitation Service • Social Security Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior: • Bureau of Mines • Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife Department of Justice Department of Labor: Bureau of Ubor Statistics • Manpower Administration • Workplace Standards Administration • Occupational Safety and Health Department of Transportation: • Office of the Secretary • Federal Highway Administration • National Highway Safety Bureau Department of the Treasury: • Internal Revenue Service • Bureau of Customs Civil Aeronautics Board Environmental Protection Agency Federal Home Loan Bank Board Federal Power Commission Federal Trade Commission Interstate Commerce Commission National Commission on Productivity National Science Foundation Office of Economic Opportunity.._ Securities and Exchange Commission Total, current programs 0.5 5.0 19.0 4.0 .5 1.8 2.8 27.3 0.5 4.8 20.5 4.1 .5 1.7 0.5 5.0 22.0 4.2 .5 3.0 .2 3.9 28.1 37.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 10.3 15.8 18.7 9.1 7.8 9.9 15.1 19.1 10.9 16.4 9.1 4.4 3.4 12.4 1.1 2.5 3.6 3.7 7.8 2.9 3.5 10.3 7.3 3.4 12.6 3.4 5.9 3.8 3.2 3.8 3.0 10.7 16.0 26.9 12.8 30.1 18.0 .5 1.2 .6 34.9 20.4 .5 3.7 6.2 1.0 3.5 1.0 .9 3.6 2.1 1.4 3.6 2.6 8.7 .9 .9 10.2 12.1 .8 1.2 .5 1.9 1.1 .6 .9 2.9 1.3 .5 2.0 1.1 1.0 .9 .4 1.5 1.0 .5 .8 3.1 3.9 .4 204.8 .5 2.7 3.7 .5 237.6 .5 2.3 3.7 .5 280.8 1 Includes the Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (formerly the Office of Business Economics). • = Statistical activities only. 06 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table F-2. OBLIGATIONS FOR PRINCIPAL STATISTICAL PROGRAMS, BY AGENCY (in million, of dollars)—Continued Agency 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate PERIODIC PROGRAMS Department of Commerce: Social and Economic Statistics Administration: 19th Decennial Census _.._ 1972 Census of Governments,__ ___ 1972 economic censuses 1974 Census of Agriculture 1967 Census of Governments ___ 1 Modernization of computer equipment J Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics: Revision of Consumer Price Index. _ ___ Total, periodic programs Total, principal statistical programs 52.1 .4 1.0 26.3 1.5 4.0 11.8 1.4 11.4 1.3 .6 5.9 9.8 58.0 37.7 35.7 262.8 275.3 316.5 3.9 energy. Work planned for 1973 includes completing the design and printing of report forms, a precanvass of multiestablishment firms, mail out of report forms, check in and clerical edit of census schedules, and followup on nonrespondents. Punching and computer edit of the data will also begin. The 1973 request includes funds for conducting a survey of minority-owned businesses. 1974 Census of Agriculture.—This is the first of a five-stage request to take a census of agriculture for calendar 1974. The census provides measures of the agricultural economy of each State and county. Data obtained from the census will include the number of farms, acres in farms, land value, crop land harvested, acreage and production on all major and most other crops, production, number and kinds of livestock, equipment, expenditures, farm practices, and the use of fertilizer and pesticides. 19th Decennial Census.—No appropriation is requested in 1973 for the 1970 censuses of population, housing, and agriculture. Funds available from previous appropriations will permit completion of the work on the censuses by the end of 1973. Revision of the Consumer Price Index.—The 1973 program, for which $9.7 million is budgeted, will continue the decennial revision of this major price index to bring it in line with the purchasing patterns of consumers in the 1970's. Work in 1973, the fourth year of this revision program, will include the first half of the basic consumer expenditure survey, the collection of other data necessary for the selection of outlets from which price data are to be obtained for the revised index, and initial work on the selection and specification of items of goods and services to be priced. Research on refining index concepts and sampling procedures, and development of data processing systems will be conducted. SPECIAL ANALYSIS G BALANCES OF BUDGET AUTHORITY This analysis presents information on balances of budget authority carried forward at the end of each of the 3 fiscal years shown in the 1973 budget. These balances may be obligated or unobligated; the latter occur only when the source of authority permits their use in subsequent years. Such balances of budget authority are a natural outgrowth of the Federal budget system, in which outlays can occur only subsequent to the enactment of appropriations or other forms of budget authority. In the case of most Government accounts, the timelag between appropriations of budget authority, obligations of funds, and related outlays is relatively short, and appropriations not obligated by the end of the fiscal year expire. However, in other cases, such as major procurement and construction programs, obligations and outlays may occur over a period of years after the budget authority is granted, and balances are carried forward until the authority is obligated and spent. In still others, authority is provided for standby emergency purposes (such as backup for insurance of bank deposits); if such authority is not needed or used, it is carried forward as a balance year after year. Amounts that have been obligated are carried forward as obligated balances until the subsequent payment of the obligations. The sum of the unobligated and obligated balances constitutes the unexpended balances. SUMMARY OF BALANCES BY FUND GROUPS Table G-l provides a breakdown of unexpended balances of budget authority under Federal funds and trust funds, and shows the unobligated and obligated amounts in each of the fund groups. Federal funds are those collected and used by the Federal Government, as owner. Of the estimated $155.2 billion of Federal fund unexpended balances at the end of 1973, the major portion—$92.4 billion (60%)—will have been obligated. Correspondingly, unobligated Federal fund balances are estimated at $62.8 billion (40% of the Federal fund unexpended balances). Trust funds are those administered in a fiduciary or trustee capacity by the Federal Government for specified purposes, such as social security programs. Of the $134.6 billion trust fund unexpended balances at the end of 1973, unobligated balances are estimated to be $118.9 billion (88%). Trust fund obligated balances are estimated to be only $15.7 billion (12% of trust fund unexpended balances). 97 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 98 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table G-l. SUMMARY OF BALANCES (in millions of dollars) Description Federal funds: Unobligated balances Obligated balances Total Federal fund unexpended balances Trust funds: Unobligated balances Obligated balances Total trust fund unexpended balances Total Federal and trust funds: Unobligated balances Obligated balances Total unexpended balances Balances end of year 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 71,963 72,280 64,313 78,480 62,844 92,372 144,244 142,793 155,216 102,880 13,798 108,371 15,530 118,938 15,674 116,678 123,902 134,612 174,843 86,078 172,684 94,010 181,782 108,046 260,922 266,695 289,828 FEDERAL FUND UNOBLIGATED BALANCES There are a variety of reasons for the unobligated balances in Federal funds. These are reflected in the categories used in table G-2. In some cases, individual items may appear appropriate for more than one category. However, for purposes of this table, each item is placed in the one category which best serves to illustrate the predominant characteristics of the balances involved. Also, the categories cover only those accounts with balances of $20 million or more. Accounts with unobligated balances of less than $20 million are shown in the aggregate at the end of the table. Guarantee and insurance programs.—The Federal Government provides guarantees and insurance in certain areas, notably in housing and banking activities. In these kinds of programs, appropriations and other budget authority are provided for contingency backup, reserves, and debt redemption. To the extent such authority is not used, the amounts are carried forward as unobligated balances. Of the $62.8 billion Federal fund balances estimated to remain unobligated at the end of 1973, $28.1 billion (45%) fall into this category. The major portion ($21.2 billion) of this category is basically standby and backup authority that, it is hoped, will not be used in the foreseeable future. For example: • $7,814 million is available for investment in the Internationa* Bank for Reconstruction and Development and other international financial institutions, if these institutions make a "call" upon member nations for more paid-in capital; • $4,750 million is available for the Federal home loan banks and for the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation; • $3,000 million is available for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; • $2,250 million is available for loans to the Federal National Mortgage Association; and • $1,000 million is available for the Securities Investor Protection Corporation fund under the supervision of the Securities and Exchange Commission. SPECIAL ANALYSES 99 Table G-2. ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL FUND UNOBLIGATED BALANCES (in millions of dollars) Category and agency Unobligated balances end of year 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Guarantee and insurance programs: 1 Standby and backup authority: International financial institutions Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Investment in Federal home loan banks Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Interest adjustment payments Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Department of Housing and Urban Development: Loans to Federal National Mortgage Association Low-rent public housing Flood and civil disorder insurance Urban renewal loans and planning advances Federal Housing Administration fund Securities and Exchange Commission: Securities Investor Protection Corporation fund Veterans Administration: Loan guaranty fund Farm Credit Administration: Banks for cooperatives investment fund, and short term credit investment fund__ National Credit Union Administration: Credit union share insurance fund Total standby and backup authority Reserves for losses and debt redemption: Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Department of Housing and Urban Development: Federal Housing Administration fund Participation sales fund Department of Agriculture: Rural housing, Federal crop, and agricultural credit insurance funds Veterans Administration: Veterans insurance funds International development assistance: Overseas Private Investment Corporation Housing guaranty fund Other agencies Total reserves for losses and debt redemption Total guarantee and insurance programs Loan programs: 7,114 7,397 7,814 4,000 750 4,000 750 3,000 3,000 4,000 750 50 3,000 2,250 972 569 257 156 2,250 894 572 20 2,250 863 570 26 1,000 524 1,000 556 1,000 471 260 260 260 106 113 124 20,958 20,812 21,177 2,615 2,831 3,051 1,314 678 1,454 393 1,631 571 146 470 417 527 646 588 204 49 42 5,519 238 49 39 5,948 323 48 39 6,897 26,477 26,760 28,074 l Department of Housing and Urban Development: Government National Mortgage Association: Special assistance functions College housing loans Public facilities loans Housing for the elderly or handicapped Rehabilitation loans Veterans Administration: Direct loan revolving fund Department of Agriculture: Farmers home, rural electrification and telephone loans Department of Labor: Advances to the unemployment trust fund International development assistance: Development loans Small Business Administration Export-Import Bank Other agencies Total loan programs See footnotes at end of table, p. 100. 3,767 1,320 225 64 4 680 4,632 955 187 76 53 843 4,605 925 149 93 14 925 377 433 559 347 463 418 349 330 194 351 330 151 1,458 253 358 321 9,375 8,409 8,424 100 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table G-2. ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL FUND UNOBLIGATED BALANCES (in millions of dollars)—Continued Category and agency Procurement programs:1 Department of Defense—Military Departmental of Agriculture: Removal of surplus agricultural commodities Other agencies Total procurement programs Construction and land programs:12 Postal Service Department of Defense—Military Tennessee Valley Authority. Department of Transportation: Urban mass transportation program Grants for public lands and forest highways Department of Agriculture: Forest roads and trails and rural environmental assistance Department of Housing and Urban Development: Grants for urban renewal, water and sewer, and neighborhood facilities__ Funds Appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development program Department of Interior: Land and water conservation fund and road construction Environmental Protection Agency: Construction grants Other agencies Total construction and land programs Research and development programs: Department of Defense—Military Other agencies Unobligated balances end of year 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 8,529 7,357 8,099 300 230 134 45 200 35 9,060 7,536 8,334 10,000 1,732 2,881 9,420 1,503 2,451 8,358 1,762 1,658 2,941 65 2,394 34 1,395 431 407 372 1,694 882 322 252 220 220 340 212 863 300 131 568 197 131 268 21,410 18,310 14,683 1,081 293 556 100 556 10 1,374 656 565 1,458 117 1,421 212 1,421 160 575 551 105 811 524 687 3,512 2,262 2,269 756 379 494 71,963 64,313 62,844 1 Total, research and development programs 1 Other balances: Department of Defense—Military Department of Transportation Department of Housing and Urban Development: Model cities programs Postal Service Other agencies Total other balances Balances of less than $20 million Total Federal fund unobligated balances 1 2 Covers accounts with balances of $20 million or more. Excludes loans for construction. Most of the remaining balances of standby- and backup authority are in the Department of Housing and Urban Development, principally for guaranteed private loans in the low-rent public housing program ($863 million), and for prompt payment to insurance companies of insurance and reinsurance claims in flood and civil disorder damage cases ($570 million). SPECIAL ANALYSES 101 This category also includes balances held as reserves for losses, which are primarily derived from fees, premiums, and other types of collections obtained from the protected groups themselves. Most of these balances are akin to funds held in trust. Significant items in this group include $3,051 million in fees and premiums collected from insured savings and loan institutions, $1,631 million for Federal housing insurance, $646 million held in reserves for rural housing, Federal crop, and agricultural credit insurance programs of the Department of Agriculture, and $588 million held in reserves for Veterans Administration insurance programs. The Department of Housing and Urban Development also has $571 million for payment to holders of participation certificates as they mature, which is in the nature of debt redemption Loan programs.—Another sizable category of unobligated balances results from the financing of loan programs. Approximately 14% ($8.4 billion) of the total Federal fund unobligated balances estimated to be carried over into 1974 is in loan programs. These programs generally are financed through revolving or business-type funds, which are established to carry on a cycle of operations, mainly with the public. Most of these funds are expected to be selfsustaining over a period of years. Their capital requirements are supplied through appropriations or other forms of budget authority. As they generate receipts from their own operations, the funds pay interest on their borrowings and repay unneeded capital. Balances relating to revolving funds usually consist of amounts on deposit with the Treasury or of undrawn authorizations to borrow either from the Treasury or directly from the public. Approximately 69% ($5.8 billion) of the unobligated balances in this category is in the Department of Housing and Urban Development, largely for the special assistance functions of the Government National Mortgage Association ($4,605 million) and for loans for college housing ($925 million). Many of the programs in the Department of Housing and Urban Development require budget authority on a long-leadtime basis in order to provide assurance to the potential borrower or contractor that adequate financing will be available when needed. The requirements for these programs are complex, and considerable time and money are required on the part of the applicant to develop a project to the stage where the Government can enter into a firm legal obligation. To deal with this problem, a reservation system has been worked out under which the Government—on its books—sets aside sufficient financing at the time it is convinced the applicant can develop a project that will meet requirements. These reservations are converted into legal obligations when an acceptable application is submitted and approved. The amounts so reserved are counted as unobligated until the final agreement or legally binding contract is actually consummated. The Veterans Administration carries unobligated balances estimated to total $925 million at the end of 1973 for housing loan programs for veterans. The Department of Agriculture is estimated to have balances of $559 million at the end of 1973 for rural housing, electrification, and telephone loan programs. The Export-Import Bank has had sizable unobligated balances of borrowing authority in past years. However, the Export Expansion 102 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 Finance Act of 1971 (Public Law 92-126) removed the Bank's receipts, disbursements, and balances of budget authority from the budget totals of the Federal Government, as of August 17, 1971. This change in practice is reflected in the amounts shown for the Bank in this table. Procurement programs.—Of the $62.8 billion Federal fund balances estimated to remain unobligated at the end of 1973, $8.3 billion (13%) is attributable to the Government's major procurement programs. Approximately $8.1 billion (98%) of the balances available for procurement is for the acquisition by the Department of Defense of capital equipment, such as aircraft, missiles, ships, combat vehicles, and other weapons. These sizable balances are due to the relatively long leadtime required for such procurement and the application of a full-funding policy. Full funding has the effect of setting a limit on the size of the specific program or project. This approach discloses to Congress the estimated full cost involved before the work actually begins, and requires that the Congress provide budget authority for the estimated full cost before the project is undertaken. Under the full-funding concept, it should be recognized that funds may be "committed" to a given purpose, even though legally unobligated. For example, in the Department of Defense, funds are committed wiien the contracting organizations are directed to proceed with procurement—that is, before invitations to bid are issued. Thus, funds are clearly earmarked for specific projects when contractors are asked to bid. This avoids having bidders go to the expense of responding to an invitation to bid, only to find that no contract can be awarded due to unavailability of funds. Construction and land programs.—Programs in this category— involving land acquisition and improvement, and construction of facilities—account for $14.7 billion (23%) of the $62.8 billion Federal fund balances estimated to remain unobligated at the end of 1973. Most of these balances are in the Postal Service ($8,358 million), in the form of borrowing authority provided by the Postal Reorganization Act (Public Law 91-375) of August 1970. Other major balances include $1,762 for military construction of the Department of Defense, $1,658 in the Tennessee Valley Authority, primarily for that agency's power program, and $1,395 million in the Department of Transportation for the urban mass transportation program. The full-funding policy discussed above under procurement also applies to these major construction programs. However, there are a few that are funded on an incremental basis, principally for reclamation, rivers and harbors, and flood control projects. In these programs only small unobligated balances are sometimes carried forward. Unobligated balances of loans for construction are excluded here. Such balances are included under loan programs. Research and development programs.—Balances relating to research and development programs amount to $565 million, or approximately 1% of the unobligated Federal fund balances estimated at the end of 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 103 Most of the unobligated balances in this category estimated for the end of 1973 are in the Department of Defense—principally for the development, testing, evaluation, and improvement of weapons systems and related equipment. The "Other agencies" balance in this category at the end of 1973 is held by the National Science Foundation. As indicated by the declining trend in this entry, balances held by agencies other than the National Science Foundation—e.g., the Environmental Protection Agency, the Atomic Energy Commission, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration—are estimated to be fully utilized by the end of 1973. Other balances.—Of the remaining $2.3 billion (4%) of Federal fund unobligated balances (in accounts with balances of $20 million or more) to be carried forward into 1974, $1,421 million is in the Department of Defense, mainly for industrial fund operations. These balances are characteristic of industrial fund activity—they are attributable to the timelag that occurs between receipt of a work order by the fund, and completion of the work required under the order. The Department of Transportation will have unobligated balances of $160 million in this category by the end of 1973, representing highway beautification, State and community highway safety, and related programs. FEDERAL FUND OBLIGATED BALANCES Table G-3 presents the major Federal fund obligated balances. Such balances are composed of the unpaid portion of obligations incurred by the Government in the form of orders placed, contracts awarded, and services received. Of the $92.4 billion Federal fund obligated balances estimated at the end of 1973, $29.5 billion (32%) are attributable to the military programs of the Department of Defense. The remaining obligated balances of $62.8 billion (68%) are scattered among the various civilian agencies and programs. The major cause of obligated balances is the long leadtime required in the procurement, construction, and research and development activities of the Federal agencies. There is also a considerable timelag involved in grants for capital outlays, where the State or local government must be assured of the availability of Federal funds before it lets a construction contract, but the related Federal payments are phased out over several years as work is performed. This applies to urban renewal in the Department of Housing and Urban Development; urban mass transportation in the Department of Transportation; hospital, health, and higher education in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare; and similar construction grant programs. Loan programs also account for sizable obligated balances due to the lag between the signing of the loan contract that creates the obligation, and the payments over a period of time as cash is needed by the borrower. This applies to loans to foreign borrowers, such as those made by financial institutions under International development assistance, and to domestic loans for programs such as rural electrification in the Department of Agriculture. 104 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table G-3. FEDERAL FUND OBLIGATED BALANCES (in millions of dollars) Obligated balances end of year Description Department of Defense—Military: Procurement Research and development Operation and maintenance Construction and family housing Military personnel Other 1 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 14,920 3,390 2,388 1,086 550 679 16,121 3,795 2,591 1,328 709 586 18,760 4,370 2,704 2,081 823 809 23,013 25,130 29,547 3,865 2,199 479 923 608 4,224 2,100 566 569 674 4,922 2,484 576 492 199 3,069 1,064 779 241 601 3,772 1,149 719 277 601 4,032 1,166 935 221 646 1,185 318 1,399 371 1,558 510 2,677 3,431 1,670 3, 735 2,928 2,121 4,497 4,275 2,324 1,457 8 63 816 1, 740 183 186 1,011 1,981 213 425 1,137 491 1,138 1,008 1,631 920 1,722 1,404 2,850 1,205 1,995 1,565 3,838 1,082 1,173 2,022 5,735 7,616 8,038 2,366 274 138 1,307 326 201 1,243 428 226 1,463 913 964 3,848 2,763 1,723 1,519 982 1,923 2,595 1,069 3,282 4,085 Total civilian agencies 49,267 53,350 62,825 Total Federal fund obligated balances 72,280 78,480 92,372 Total Department of Defense—Military Civilian agencies: Funds Appropriated to the President: International development assistance International security assistance Appalachian regional development programs Office of Economic Opportunity Other Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation Rural Electrification Administration Farmers Home Administration Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service Other Department of Commerce (mostly economic development and maritime programs) Department of Defense—CiviL Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education (mainly grants to colleges, universities, local school districts, and other educational institutions) ___ Social and Rehabilitation Service (mainly grants to States)__ National Institutes of Health Health Service and Mental Health Administration (mostly community mental health and hospital construction) Office of Child Development Other Department of the Interior Department of Justice (mostly Law Enforcement Assistance Administration) Department of Labor (manpower development and training) Atomic Energy Commission (mostly research and development) _ Environmental Protection Agency (mostly construction grants) _ Department of Transportation (mostly urban mass transportation, highways and Coast Guard) Department of Housing and Urban Development: Community Development (mainly urban renewal fund) Housing Production and Mortgage Credit: Federal Housing Administration Housing Management Other National Aeronautics and Space Administration (mostly research and development) Postal Service Veterans Administration Export-Import Bank Other civilian agencies 2 1 Includes obligated balances of allowances for civilian and military pay raises of the D e p a r t m e n t of Defense (1972, $30 million; 1973, $135 million). 2 Includes obligated balances of allowances for pay raises, excluding D O D (1972, $10 million; 1973. $35 million; and contingencies 1972. $233 million; 1973. $430 million). SPECIAL ANALYSES 105 The Export Expansion Finance Act of 1971 (Public Law 92-126) removed the Export-Import Bank's receipts, disbursements, and balances of budget authority from the budget totals of the Federal Government, as of August 17, 1971. This change in practice is reflected in the amounts shown for the Bank in this table. TRUST FUND BALANCES The balances of trust funds are shown in table G-4. The amounts include both unobligated and obligated balances of trust fund authorizations. The unobligated balances include both the open book balances and investments in U.S. securities. The investments in such securities are held until funds are needed to meet statutory requirements in subsequent years. Table G-4. TRUST FUND BALANCES (in millions of dollars) Balances end of year Description 1971 actual Unobligated Federal old-age and survivors insurance trustfund Federal disability insurance trust fund. Federal hospital insurance trust fund.. Federal supplementary medical insurance trust fund Unemployment trust fund Railroad retirement account..-.______ Civil service retirement and disability fund Federal employees health benefits fund. Federal employees life insurance fund. _ Highway trust funds Airport and airway trust fund National service life insurance fund. _. U.S. Government life insurance fund._ Foreign military sales trust fund Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation funds __ . Other trust funds Total trust funds 1972 estimate Obligated Unobligated Obligated 1973 estiimate Unobligated Obligated 31,502 6,073 3,044 2,843 337 59 32,035 6,657 4,460 3,214 389 81 32,341 6,879 9,095 3,395 407 94 245 11,282 4,694 45 23 157 461 9,528 4,637 45 49 168 717 9,145 4,739 50 69 171 24,755 108 1 6,210 829 6,051 740 2,345 279 48 975 7,496 460 372 21 320 27,575 135 1 6,962 564 6,043 694 3,225 300 57 1,133 7,834 941 385 21 520 30,617 181 1 8,336 284 6,305 668 3,825 344 69 1,304 7,364 965 404 22 620 4,351 650 322 41 4,748 646 348 45 5,173 632 356 40 15,530 118,938 15,674 102,880 13,798 108,371 SPECIAL ANALYSIS H CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH The trend of civilian employment in the executive branch reflects generally rising workloads and strong efforts to achieve effective manpower utilization. Absorption of essential workload increases through gains in employee productivity is central to these efforts. As an integral part of the administration's new economic policy, the President ordered, on August 15, 1971, a reduction in Federal employment. Decreases in defense activities will be accompanied by decreases in a number of the civilian agencies. Reductions are being made on a selective basis and are applied in a manner that provides sufficient flexibility to permit new or expanding programs to move ahead. From January 1969 through June 1971 the level of Federal civilian employment was reduced by 125,500. Further reductions of 29,800 are estimated by June 30, 1973. Reductions in the Department of Defense, reflecting withdrawal of ground combat forces from Vietnam, are slowing. The continued overall downward trend is indicative of persistent administration efforts to keep the number of Federal civilian employees to the minimum. FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT The flexible administrative controls on Federal employment in effect since July 1969 continued to function satisfactorily, and succeeded in reducing the number of full-time permanent Federal civilian employees as of June 30, 1971, by about 54,000 below the number estimated 6 months earlier in the 1972 budget document. For June 30, 1972, full-time permanent civilian employment (excluding the Postal Service) is estimated to be 1,918,100, a decrease of 37,400 from June 30, 1971. Compared to the estimate in the 1972 budget document, this represents a reduction of 80,700 or slightly over 4.0%. Including the Postal Service, full-time permanent employment is estimated to be 2,531,500. This includes a conversion of 3^,000 former temporary employees to full-time permanent status as a result of a labor-management agreement between the Postal Service and the postal employees' unions. The number of full-time permanent civilian employees in the executive branch at the end of 1973 is estimated to be 2,551,800. Of this number 4 1 % will be employed in the Department of Defense, while 7% will work for the Veterans Administration and 24% will be employees of the Postal Service. Thus, these three agencies will account for about 72% of all full-time permanent employment in the executive branch. Table H - l displays the projected changes in yearend full-time permanent employment estimates. 106 107 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table H-1. SUMMARY OF FULL-TIME PERMANENT CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH As of June l Agency 1971 actual 1972 estimate In 1972 budget Current 1973 estimate Agriculture 84,252 87,300 83,000 83,400 Commerce-... 28,435 29,600 28,500 29,700 Defense—military functions 1,062,741 1,061,600 1,011,000 1,005,800 Defense—civil functions _-..i.._ 30,063 31,300 30,600 31,300 2 Health, Education, and Welfare 104,283 102,100 102,000 99,500 Housing and Urban Development 16,030 16,700 15,200 16,000 Interior 57,570 59,100 56,900 56,900 Justice _ 42,662 46,800 45,100 46,300 Labor _„ 11,352 12,100 11,800 12,600 State 23,398 23,700 22,700 22,800 Transportation 68,489 71,900 66,400 69,200 Treasury.... 90,135 100,400 98,500 99,200 Atomic Energy Commission 6,920 7,000 6,700 6,900 Environmental Protection Agency 5,959 8,900 8,000 8,500 General Services Administration 38,076 41,600 39,400 39,400 National Aeronautics and Space Administration. 29,478 28,400 27,500 26,800 Veterans Administration 158,635 160.800 162,700 174,100 Other agencies: Agency for International Development 13,477 11,100 12,400 11,800 Civil Service Commission 5,324 5,900 5,600 6,000 Selective Service System 5,569 6,500 6,200 6,100 Small Business Administration 4,004 4,200 4,000 4,000 Tennessee Valley Authority 13,612 13,300 14,000 14,000 Panama Canal _ 13,967 14,900 14,200 14,000 United States Information Agency __ 9,773 9,900 9,400 9,400 Miscellaneous agencies 31,332 33,700 34,300 34,600 Change 1972-73 400 1,200 -5,200 700 -2,500 800 1,200 800 100 2,800 700 200 500 -700 11,400 -600 400 -100 _ -200 300 Subtotal Allowance for contingencies 3 1,955,536 1,988,800 1,916,100 1,928,300 10,000 2,000 5,000 12,200 3,000 Subtotal Postal Service 1,955,536 1,998,800 1,918,100 1,933,300 4 603,782 629,500 613,400 618,500 15,200 5,100 *2,559,318 2,628,300 2,531,500 2,551,800 20,300 _ Total 1 Excludes disadvantaged worker-trainees in the Public Service Careers 3 Reflects transfer of federally operated hospitals to local communities. 3 Subject to later distribution. 4 program. Adjusted to include approximately 39,000 employees previously erroneously classified and, under a labor-management agreement, to be reclassified as full-time permanents in 1972. Most of the 1973 employment increases occur in: (1) The Veterans Administration, up by 11,400, for better quality medical care to a greater number of veterans in its hospitals, extended care facilities, and outpatient clinics and other improved services to veterans. (2) The Postal Service, up by 5,100 or 0.8%, to service a 2.1% increase in mail volume. 108 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 (3) The Department of Transportation, increased by 2,800, primarily for air traffic controllers, maintenance, and logistics personnel required for increased air traffic, and other increases for expanded urban and safety programs. (4) The Department of Commerce, up by 1,200, primarily for the newly organized Social and Economic Statistics Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Patent Office. (5) The Department of Justice, up by about 1,200. Nearly half the increases are in the Bureau of Prisons. The remaining increases are provided for legal staff support for organized crime strike forces, the economic stabilization program, civil rights, and a major emphasis on street and mid-level drug enforcement efforts. (6) The Department of Housing and Urban Development, up by 800, to provide more effective administration of subsidized housing programs and to deal with current and projected growth in workload related to all housing programs. (7) The Department of Labor, up by 800, primarily for the new occupational safety and health program. (8) The Treasury Department, a net increase of 700 in the Bureau of Accounts, the Bureau of Printing and Engraving, the Bureau of Public Debt, the Office of the Treasurer, and the Comptroller of the Currency. (9) The Environmental Protection Agency, up 500, reflecting increased emphasis on enforcement of air and water quality standards. Significant decreases occur in four agencies. These are: (1) The Department of Defense, down by 4,500, reflecting workload reductions resulting from withdrawals from Vietnam. (2) The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, a net decrease of 2,500, representing the proposed transfer of federally operated hospitals to local communities. The decrease is partially offset by increased emphasis on consumer safety activities in the Food and Drug Administration. (3) The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, down by 700, due to a rephasing of space program activity. (4) The Agency for International Development will decline by 600; virtually all of these reductions are in overseas employment, reflecting further consolidation and centralization of the agency's activities. TOTAL FEDERAL PERSONNEL Within the category of total Federal civilian employment, full-time permanent employees will account for slightly more than 9 1 % in 1973. The balance is made up of part-time employees, intermittent employees (those employed on an irregular basis), and full-time temporary employees (those in positions occupied for less than a year). The term "total Federal personnel'' as used here encompasses Armed Services personnel and civilian employees in the legislative and judicial branches as well as the executive branch civilian employment previously described. The various categories are shown in table H-2. SPECIAL ANALYSES 109 Table H-2. TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT Descripti on Civilian employment in the executive branch: Full-time permanent * Other than full-time permanent3 Armed services personnel on active duty: Department of Defense4 Department of Transportation (Coast Guard) Subtotal Legislative and Judicial personnel Total As of June 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 2 2,559,318 2 263,566 2,531,500 253,400 2,551,800 241,300 2,713,981 38,049 2,391,800 38,400 2,358,000 38,800 5,215,100 5,189,900 5,574,914 40,010 _ 5,614,924 1 2 Excludes disadvantaged worker-trainees in the Public Service Careers program. Adjusted to reflect approximately 39,000 Postal employees erroneously classified and, under a labor-management agreement, to be reclassified as full-time permanents in 1972. 3 Excludes disadvantaged summer and part-time workers under the President's Youth Opportunity Campaign. 4 Excludes Reserve components. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS Table H-3 presents selected data on the Federal payroll and related costs. Table H-3. PERSONNEL COMPENSATION AND BENEFITS (in millions of dollars) Description Civilian personnel costs: 2 Direct compensation Personnel benefits Total Armed Forces personnel costs: 3 Direct compensation Personnel benefits Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1 1973 estimate 29,277 2,591 31,200 3,000 31,700 3,000 31,868 34,200 34,700 16,567 3,959 16,800 4,100 16,600 4,200 20,526 20,900 20,800 1 Excludes budget allowances of $1.1 billion for 1972 and $3.2 billion for 1973 for military and civilian pay raises effective in January 1972 and during 1973. 2 Excludes Members and officers of Congress. 3 Excludes Reserve components. Direct compensation of the Federal work force includes: basic pay, premium pay for overtime, holidays, Sundays, night work and hazardous duty, and differentials for overseas duty. Additional related compensation in the form of personnel benefits encompasses such items as: the Government's share of Federal retirement and oldage survivors' and disability insurance, health insurance and benefits, and similar disbursements. Other items included are: Cost-of-living and quarters allowances, uniform allowances (when paid in cash), 110 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 and, in the case of military personnel, allowances for subsistence, reenlistment bonuses, and certain other cash payments. Obligations for civilian personnel compensation and benefits in 1973 are projected to be $34.7 billion. A portion of the personnel compensation is offset by receipts from rents, royalties, and the sale of property and products, while compensation of others is paid from public enterprise funds such as the Postal Service. The cost of these employees, included in table H-3, but not chargeable to general taxation or borrowing, amounts to $8.4 billion in 1973. After allowing for the offsets, the remaining cost of Federal civilian employee compensation is 10.7% of the budget totals. Salary rates for Federal employees under statutory pay systems are adjusted, based on appropriate annual surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so as to achieve comparability with rates paid for the same work levels in private enterprise. In the Economic Stabilization Act Amendments of 1971, Congress directed that pay adjustments based on the 1971 survey be made in January 1972, but provided that these adjustments couid not be greater than the wage and salary guidelines authorized for the private sector under the economic stabilization program. The maximum annual aggregate average increase specified by Pay Board standards is 5.5%. An average pay adjustment of that amount was made in January 1972, and a related increase, as required by law, was made in military basic pay. Total allowances for civilian and military pay increases of $3.2 billion are carried in the 1973 budget to cover the cost of the January 1972 increase and further adjustments in 1973. Under the Coordinated Federal Wage System, adjustments of pay scales for Federal "blue collar" workers are made, in accordance with the law, so as to set the pay for such employees at levels corresponding with prevailing local private industry rates. In order to treat these employees in the same manner as those under the statutory pay systems, as well as workers in the private sector, the President has ordered that adjustments in their wages be similarly limited to the 5.5% annual aggregate increases allowable under Pay Board standards. GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT Table H-4 depicts the geographical distribution of Federal civilian employment. The vast majority of Federal employees—83%—work in the various States. Some 6% are employed in foreign countries and in U.S. territories and possessions, with the employees in foreign countries being, for the most part, nationals of the countries in which they work. The remaining employees, 11%, are accounted for in the Washington metropolitan area (which includes bordering areas of Maryland and Virginia). 111 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table H-4. FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT BY GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION (as of June 1971) Location Washington, D.C., metropolitan area 2 Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland3 Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York _ North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma 1 2 3 Total employment * 334,250 56,250 14,580 29,236 17,367 308,655 43,857 20,355 4,914 71,432 76,376 26,920 8,477 109,601 45,028 18,435 22,990 35,398 28,815 14,413 63,732 64,144 53,395 29,802 21,432 67,076 10,717 15,498 8,543 5,638 65,704 26,629 179,200 38,390 8,373 99,994 54,064 Total employment i Location Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia3 Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming 24,898 139,682 14,790 29,971 9,663 46,364 149,526 39,998 3,251 77,040 53,908 13,621 26,420 5,390 Total United States 2,734,202 Outside United States: Territories and possessions Foreign countries 56, 360 132,279 Total outside United States U.S. citizens Foreign nationals 4 188,639 (53,914) (134, 725) Total employment Disadvantaged youth Public Service Careers employees. 2,922,841 —58,055 —1,892 Total employment, justed Legislative and judicial 2,862,894 —40,010 ad- Total executive branch 2, 822, 884 Distribution as follows: 5 Full-time permanent (2, 559, 318) Temporary, part-time, and intermittent s (263,566) Distribution by State is partially estimated. Includes employees of the executive branch and of the legislative and judicial branches. Excludes employment within the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, which includes the District of Columbia and the adjacent counties and cities in Maryland and Virginia4 Excludes 96,219 foreign nationals provided to the Department of Defense under contract agreements, or other arrangements with foreign governments which provide for the furnishing of personal services. 5 Adjusted to reflect approximately 39 000 Postal employees erroneously classified and, under a labor-management agreement, to be reclassified in 1972. 112 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1-973 TRENDS IN WORKLOAD Although civilian employment is being reduced in some agencies and activities, expanding programs, population growth and demands for more and better services combine to exert pressures for workload increases. Examples of some of these workload increases are: • Patent applications are expected to increase by about 3 % in 1973. • Criminal cases in process of completion by the Department of Justice are expected to rise by 16%. • The number of civil rights cases filed by the Justice Department is expected to increase 15%. • The Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs expects to make 1,100 more narcotics arrests, seize 19% more clandestine drug labs, and double the planned amount of heroin seized in the previous year. • Inspections of food processors will increase by 56%; product safety inspections and injury investigations by 300%. • Inspection of worksites under the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 will increase by almost 60%. • Mail volume is expected to rise by 2.1% to a level of 91.7 billion pieces. • The number of persons receiving monthly benefits under Federal old age and survivors' insurance will increase from 24.4 million to 25.1 million. • The growth in unit applications for FHA mortgage insurance will approach 11.2%. • The number of home loans guaranteed by the Veterans Administration will increase by 5.6%. • Under the Emergency Employment Act of 1971, transitional employment opportunities will increase by almost 25%. • Persons arriving from foreign countries and requiring processing through customs will increase by 5% and formal entries of cargo will increase by 8.1%. • Tax returns filed with the Internal Revenue Service will increase by 2.1% to 113.6 million. • Air traffic is expected to increase at an annual rate of 8%. A requirement for improved employee productivity has become even more stringent in view of the 1972 employment reduction effort. This has made it possible to hold the anticipated growth in Federal manpower to an acceptable minimum level. POPULATION AND GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT COMPARISONS The ratio of Federal employment to total employment in all governmental units—Federal, State, and local—has declined steadily since 1969. As table H-5 and the accompanying chart illustrate, this proportion is estimated to be about 20% in 1973. 113 SPECIAL ANALYSES Government Civilian Employment Millions of Employees 14 12- 10 '43 1945 End of Fiscal Year 1950 1955 i960 1965 1970 "73 Estimate The ratio of Federal civilian employment to population (see table H-5) has exhibited a nearly continuous decline for over 20 years, and has decreased steadily since 1969. The ratio is expected to be 13.1 per thousand in 1973. Table H-5, covering the period 1943-73, presents a comparison of total Federal civilian employment in the executive branch with State and local government, and the U.S. population. The Federal employment data includes temporary and part-time personnel. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 114 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1-973 Table H-5. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION, 1943-73 Popuhition Government employment 1943... 1944.__ 1945. _ 1946. 1947_ 1948.. 1949. . 1950. _ 1951 1952 1953_ 1954 1955___ 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 2___ 19621963 3 1964 3 1965 1966.._ 1967.__ 1968.__ 1969 <__ 19702 1971 2 _ 1972 1973. Federal State and All govem- Federal as branch1 (thousands) ments (thousands) units (thousands) all governmental units 3,274 3,304 3,787 2,666 2,082 2,044 2,075 1,934 2,456 2,574 2,532 2,382 2,371 2,372 2,391 2,355 2,355 2,371 2,407 2,485 2,490 2,469 2,496 2,664 2,877 2,951 2,980 2,884 2,823 2,785 2,793 3,184 3,092 3,104 3,305 3,568 3,776 3,906 4,078 4,031 4,134 4,282 4,552 4,728 5,064 5,380 5,630 5,806 6,073 6,295 6,533 6,834 7,236 7,683 8,259 8,730 9,141 9,496 9,869 10,259 (5) 6,458 6,396 6,891 5,971 5,650 5,820 5,981 6,012 6,487 6,708 6,814 6,934 7,099 7,436 7,771 7,985 8,161 8,444 8,702 9,018 9,324 9,705 10,179 10,923 11,607 12,092 12,476 12,753 13,082 50.7 51.7 55.0 44.6 36.8 35.1 34.7 32.2 37.9 38.4 37.2 34.4 33.4 31.9 30.9 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.6 26.7 25.4 24.5 24.4 24.8 24.4 23.9 22.6 21.6 20.7 20.2 Total United States <(thousands) 137,250 138,916 140,468 141,936 144,698 147,208 149,767 152,271 154,878 157,533 160,184 163,026 165,931 168,903 171,984 174,882 177,830 180,667 183,672 186,504 189,197 191,833 194,237 196,485 198,629 200,619 202,599 204,800 207,036 209,484 212,155 Federal ment per 1.000 population 23.9 23.8 27.0 18.8 14.4 13.9 13.9 12.7 15.9 16.3 15.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.5 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.8 13.6 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.1 13.6 13.2 13.1 students employed part time. 2 Includes temporary employees for the decennial census. 3 Excludes 7,411 project employees in 1963 and 406 project employees in 1964 for the public works acceleration program. ^ On Jan. 1, 1969, 42,000 civilian technicians of the Am -- PART 2 FEDERAL SOCIAL PROGRAMS 115 INTRODUCTION Part 2 furnishes Government-wide program and financial information in seven social program areas—education, manpower, health, income security, housing, civil rights, and crime reduction. I t includes the special analyses designated 1 through O. The figures used in these analyses differ from the data shown under somewhat similarly titled categories of the functional classification used in Part 4 of the Budget and elsewhere. I n the functional classification, each activity is categorized according to its major purpose; thus all the military spending of the Department of Defense falls into the functional category, National defense. I n these special analyses, however, all spending for education, health, etc., is included, even if the activity has a different primary purpose. Thus the tabulations here are more comprehensive with regard to these particular types of social programs. The Government's commitment of resources for these purposes is evidenced in the tabulation below. This is not a complete representation, however, since some resources also go into other social programs t h a t are not explicitly covered by a special analysis in this volume. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR SELECTED SOCIAL PROGRAMS. 1973 [In millions of dollars] Outlays Description Special analysis: I. Education J. Manpower K. Health . L. I ncome security M. Housing N. Civil rights 0. Reduction of crime. 14.351 5.114 22.947 90,179 1.261 2.522 2.321 Subtotal 138,695 Deduction for duplications included above Total Civilian agencies __ Department of Defense 1.344 27 2.580 5.102 795 38 9,886 All agencies 15,695 5.141 25,527 95,281 2,056 2,560 2,321 148,581 —26,893 121,688 Some activities of the Government serve more than one social purpose; for example, the Medicare and Medicaid programs may be considered as a part of both the Federal health and income security programs. An estimate of $14,480 million for 1973 is included in both the health and income security categories. Thus, in adding the seven categories to a total, a deduction must be made to avoid double counting. 116 SPECIAL ANALYSIS I FEDERAL EDUCATION PROGRAMS PART I—OVERVIEW The 1973 Federal budget provides outlays of $15.7 billion for aid to education an increase of $1.1 billion over 1972. This amount comprises 6.4% of total Federal spending in 1973. Federal outlays for education have risen over $12 billion since 1963. Of this amount, $6 3 billion has been allocated to elementary and secondary education resulting in over a fivefold increase during this period. Federal support of higher education has risen $5.8 billion and is now over four times the 1963 level. Federal Education Outlays, 1963-1973 $ Billions 16- Federal education programs may be viewed as serving two major purposes. First, a number of programs give direct aid to educational institutions and individuals attending them. These programs constitute 60% of total Federal spending for education and consist principally of the programs administered by the Office of Education, assistance for former servicemen under the GI bill, and payments to students who are children of deceased or disabled social security beneficiaries. 117 118 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table 1-1. MAJOR FEDERAL EDUCATION ACTIVITIES (in billions of dollars) Outlays Program 1971 Direct support to education: Office of Education programs (HEW) GI education benefits (VA) Social security benefits for children in school (HEW) Education of American Indians (Interior) and overseas dependents (DOD) Head Start (HEW) NSF science education and HEW special institutions College housing loans and Model Cities (HUD) National Foundation for Higher Education and National Institute of Education (HEW) Subtotal direct support Indirect support of education: Research at academic institutions * (20 agencies) Child nutrition (Agriculture) Health and other scientific professional training 1 (7 agencies) __ Training of Federal and other public employees at educational institutions (12 agencies) Military service academies and ROTC (DOD) Agricultural extension (Agriculture) Education aid to foreign countries (AID) All other (23 agencies) Subtotal indirect support Total 1 1972 1973 4.6 1.5 .6 4.9 2.0 .7 5.2 2.2 .7 .3 .4 .2 .2 .4 .4 .2 .2 .4 .4 .2 .2 .1 7.8 8.8 9.4 1.6 .9 .8 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.1 .4 .3 .2 .1 .6 .4 .4 .2 .1 .7 .4 .4 .2 .1 .8 4.9 5.8 6.3 12.7 14.6 15.7 Excludes portion included in Office of Education. Second, a number of other Federal programs purchase or support educational services as a means of meeting other national objectives. Examples of programs providing such indirect support are university research to extend medical knowledge, training of professional manpower to improve delivery of health services, school lunches to provide better child nutrition, and agricultural extension of services to improve farm production and rural life. Such activities account for 40% of total education outlays. Another way to classify Federal funds for education is on the basis of who receives the assistance. About two-thirds of Federal outlays will be paid to educational institutions. The Office of Education estimates that total spending of U.S. educational institutions will reach $86 billion in 1971-72. Of this amount, an estimated $9.7 billion or 11% will come directly from Federal sources. The remaining onethird of Federal education funds in fiscal 1972—$4.9 billion—will be spent through other means, for example, by students who directly receive Federal grants and loans for tuition and room and board, by noneducational institutions for services such as Head Start and Model Cities projects, and by educational institutions overseas which receive Federal support through our foreign aid program. SPECIAL ANALYSES 119 The remainder of part I of this analysis highlights Federal education policies and the major legislative proposals for 1973. Part II discusses the principal Federal programs by level of education. Part III indicates the degree to which different Federal agencies are supporting education and contains technical notes on coverage and scope of the analysis. EDUCATION POLICIES AND THE 1973 BUDGET In education, as in other domestic fields, the Federal Government is emphasizing reform and renewal to improve performance and concentrate resources on meeting urgent national problems. The 1973 budget proposes legislation that would establish a number of new Federal education programs to meet high priority needs. The proposals and their cost are shown in table 1-2. The budget authority figures are the amount of funds Congress will be asked to appropriate once the authorizing legislation has been enacted. The outlay figures represent estimates of the cash requirements or checks issued to grant recipients during each fiscal year. Table 1-2. LEGISLATIVE PROPOSALS FOR NEW EDUCATION PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 1972 Proposal Emergency school assistance Education revenue sharing National Institute of Education National Foundation for Higher Education Total. Budget authority 1973 Outlays 500 81 3 3 506 Budget authority Outlays 2 1 1,000 224 125 100 381 110 50 30 84 1,449 571 Elementary and secondary education.—The Federal role in elementary and secondary education is threefold: (1) the allocation of financial resources on a broad and continuing basis to help States and local school districts meet their responsibilities; (2) the provision of national leadership to help reform and renew our schools to improve performance; and (3) the concentration of resources to meet urgent national problems during the period when they are most intense. The administration's proposal for education revenue sharing would strengthen the first role by providing a new and expanded system of Federal aid to our schools. This proposal would pull together more than 30 separate existing Federal aid programs to provide States and local school districts greater flexibility to coordinate and concentrate Federal funds to more effectively meet their educational needs. Funds would flow automatically to States under a formula established by law with no State matching required and with no State receiving less than it does now under the present grant system. 120 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table 1-3. SPECIAL REVENUE SHARING FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION (in millions of dollars) Programs included in the 1973 budget Department of Agriculture: School lunch and related programs (excluding assistance for needy children) _ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (Office of Education): Educationally deprived children Aid to federally affected areas Education for the handicapped Vocational education Library resources, strengthening State education agencies, supplementary centers, and other supporting services Subtotal . Additional amounts for special revenue sharing Total 1973 estimate Budget authority Outlays 224 219 1,598 370 38 475 1,521 413 37 468 308 329 3,013 224 2,987 110 3,237 3,097 To strengthen the Federal leadership role in reforming and renewing our Nation's schools, the administration has proposed the creation of a National Institute of Education to bring to education the intensity and quality of research and experimentation which the Federal Government has devoted to agricultural and medical research. The National Institute would serve as a focal point for identifying educational problems, for the systematic study of such problems, and for development of new ways to alleviate them. Education R. & D. activities now administered by the Office of Education totaling $87 million in 1972 will be transferred to the Institute in 1973. To fulfull the third Federal role, the administration has proposed an Emergency School Aid Act to provide $1.5 billion over a 2-year period to help meet the special problems of desegregating the Nation's schools. Progress in school desegregation has accelerated. Since 1968 there has been a 71% reduction in the number of students attending all black schools. The emergency school assistance program would help local communities expedite and adjust to this change, while maintaining and improving the quality of education in affected schools. Funds made available in 1972 and 1973 will be spent in succeeding years allowing careful development of programs to achieve these objectives. Higher education.—Two major objectives for direct Federal Governmend aid to higher education are: • To help insure that no qualified student who wants to go to college will be barred by lack of financial resources; and • To help colleges and universities meet the educational needs of the next decade through renewal, reform, and innovation in higher education. To meet the first objective, the administration has proposed to reform the present Office of Education programs of financial aid to college students. The proposal would assure that Federal funds go first, and in the largest amounts, to the neediest students, in order SPECIAL ANALYSES 121 to place them on an equal footing with students from higher income families. The proposal also provides for an expansion of loans for all students through greater reliance on private capital resources. The administration has also proposed to provide improvements in veterans education programs under the GI bill which are administered by the Veterans Administration. Under this proposal the benefit rate would be increased from $175 to $190 per month. To spur innovation in institutions of higher education, the administration has also proposed legislation to create a National Foundation for Higher Education. As a new Federal agency, the Foundation will assist colleges to experiment with new educational forms and techniques. PART II—FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR EDUCATION BY LEVEL ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION In 1973, outlays for elementary and secondary education will amount to $6.3 billion, an increase of $583 million over 1972. Federal funds supply about 7% of national expenditures for elementary and secondary education in public and nonpublic schools. Table 1-4 displays Federal outlays by agency and major program. Nearly half of the total is for grants to States and local school districts under various programs administered by the Office of Education. Another 13% is for Head Start and other demonstration projects which are developing new approaches to education. About one-fifth is for grants to States for school lunches and child nutrition by the Department of Agriculture. Table 1-4. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION BY AGENCY AND PROGRAM (in millions of dollars) Agency and program Agriculture: Child nutrition Defense: Education of overseas dependents Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Emergency school assistance Grants to States and school districts Demonstration projects National Institute of Education Office of Child Development: Head Start Social Security Administration: Student benefits Interior: Indian education Labor: Neighborhood Youth Corps in-school Housing and Urban Development: Model Cities National Science Foundation: Science education Other Federal agencies Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 928 156 1,309 172 1,374 197 51 2,551 361 103 2,660 433 2 376 177 182 75 71 31 171 381 2,737 428 50 387 189 206 75 99 35 187 5,762 6,345 366 160 180 64 52 36 154 5,059 Table 1-5 presents Federal outlays by sublevel and type of support. The following paragraphs describe current Federal activities by sublevel. 122 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table 1-5. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION BY SUBLEVEL AND TYPE OF SUPPORT (in millions of dollars) Sublevel and type of support 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 5,059 5, 762 6,345 Early childhood Elementary and secondary Supporting services 489 3,992 578 527 4,557 678 538 5,064 743 Current operations Facilities and equipment Student support Education personnel training Educational research 4,084 187 240 164 384 4,649 195 273 165 480 5,147 194 285 165 552 Total, elementary and secondary Early childhood education.—Research findings strongly support the contention that a child's potential is determined to a significant extent by the nature of his environment during the first 5 years of life. In order to break the chain of inherited disadvantage from poverty, it is necessary to reach children before they enter school. Many questions remain unanswered as to what action should be taken by persons outside the family and what objectives are to be accomplished. Federal preschool programs support research and experimentation in child development as well as direct services for young children. Federal early childhood research and demonstration programs included in this special analysis are: • The Office of Child Development (OCD), located in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, which provides leadership and coordination for all Federal programs for preschool children, and carries on a program of basic research in early childhood. Studies on the impact of television on the family, father absence, and preparation for parenthood will be conducted in 1973. • The Head Start experimental program which supports a variety of preschool models including: Home Start, designed to reach children in their own homes; Health Start, focused on improving medical services for low-income preschoolers; and an infant care program which is exploring services for children up to 3 years of age. • Preschool programs for handicapped children which are operated by the Office of Education to demonstrate successful models for overcoming handicapping conditions which local school systems can adopt. Federal funds which support direct services to preschool children focus care on the disadvantaged. Federal programs included in this analysis are: • Head Start, operated by OCD, which demonstrates and provides a variety of services—educational, medical, and social—for 300,000 3- to 5-year old children. • Kindergarten and prekindergarten programs which are supported under grants to schools for the education of the disadvantaged at the option of local school districts. SPECIAL ANALYSES 123 Table 1-6. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION (in millions of dollars) Outlays Budget authority 1973 Type of support, agency, and program 1971 Research and demonstration: Office of Child Development (OCD) : Early childhood R. & D Head Start experimental program Office of Education: Early childhood demonstrations for the handicapped.. Sesame Street 1972 1973 2 3 2 4 7 12 10 3 6 3 7 5 11 5 6 14 23 38 363 92 21 8 364 98 39 11 1 369 93 37 15 1 376 96 37 12 1 Subtotal 484 513 515 522 Total 489 527 538 560 Subtotal Basic support: Office of Child Development: Head Start Office of Education: Education of the disadvantaged. _ Department of Agriculture: Child nutrition programs.. HUD: Model Cities Interior: Grants to territories Additional Federal support amounting to $410 million is provided for day care as a support to employment and is discussed in Special Analysis J, "Federal Manpower Programs." Elementary and secondary education.—The 1973 budget is designed to provide financial resources on a broad and flexible basis to help States and localities meet their responsibilities as well as urgent national problems. An important element of the administration's reform of Federal aid programs is the legislative proposal for special revenue sharing which pulls together a large number of narrow-purpose categorical grants for elementary and secondary education. This proposal would retain the essential framework of national policy but would give States and localities a wider degree of discretion as to how they would meet their own local problems. The proposal would also permit a large margin of flexibility to move funds from one broad purpose to another to enable States to respond to their own priorities. A total of $3.2 billion would be provided in 1973. This includes $3.0 billion for existing categorical grants and $224 million to insure that no State will receive less in 1973 than it did in 1972 under present programs. The administration's legislative proposals for general Federal revenue sharing and welfare reform will also have a significant impact on the financing of elementary and secondary education. Under general revenue sharing, the Federal Government would share a portion of the growing Federal taxes with States and local governments to use as they determine (see Special Analysis P). Education is certain to be a major 124 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 beneficiary of this measure. Also, the proposed welfare reform will free States of a significant portion of fast-growing welfare costs and lead to a more stable home environment for thousands of children (see Special Analyses J and L). Two areas where the Federal Government is proposing to launch major new initiatives are aid to desegregating schools and the promotion of career education. Since 1968, progress in school desegregation has resulted in a reduction from 40% to 12% in the number of children attending all-black schools. In the South, the progress has been even more dramatic. The number of children attending allblack schools in 11 Southern States has decreased from 68% in 1968 to 9% in 1971. The administration's $1.5 billion legislative proposal for emergency school assistance will help achieve the early completion of school desegregation. Table 1-7. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR VOCATIONAL AND CAREER EDUCATION (in millions of dollars) Level, agency, and program Elementary and secondary: Appalachian regional development programs: Vocational education programs Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Basic support of State vocational education programs Cooperative education and work study Grants to States for research and innovation Career education model development and demonstration... _ 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 19 22 23 207 14 15 5 236 18 31 14 253 19 36 23 260 321 354 119 6 4 4 134 8 13 5 144 9 15 Subtotal 133 160 176 Total 393 481 53 Subtotal Postsecondary and adult: Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Basic support of State vocational programs Student assistance: Cooperative education National Technical Institute for the Deaf Housing and Urban Development: Model Cities grants for vocational education 8 The objective of career education is to create an educational system which would assure that all students have an opportunity to acquire productive occupational skills. Our present education system fails to prepare large numbers of students to perform effectively in the labor market. The Office of Education and the National Institute of Education will work closely with the States on the creation of a new style of education structured around the theme of career development. The initial focus is to develop a series of new models of career education which can later be disseminated to all levels of education. Efforts will SPECIAL ANALYSES 125 also be made to strengthen the postsecondary opportunities for disadvantaged students in career education and to involve employers more directly in their educational experiences. Table 1-7 presents the budget outlays for vocational and career education programs. Supporting services.—Outlays in this category support education research and demonstration projects, development and dissemination of exemplary education programs, and education personnel training. The Federal Government is a major source of funds for support of education research and development. In 1973, outlays for research and demonstration projects are estimated to increase by $69 million to $712 million. A key element of the administration's efforts to promote innovation and reform through the development of new educational techniques and services is the legislative proposal to establish a National Institute of Education. With a budget of $125 million in 1973, the new Institute would conduct internal research and manage external projects concentrated on three problem areas—improving the education of the disadvantaged, quality of education, and resource use in education. Ongoing research and development efforts will continue in 1973. The experimental schools program supports a limited number of comprehensive educational projects, and will provide evaluation and documentation on results of the new practices and techniques which are developed. The Follow Through program is a large-scale research and demonstration effort designed to develop and evaluate a number of approaches to education of disadvantaged children. In 1973 initial results will be available on the first group to complete three primary years in Follow Through. Another effort to foster educational reform and change is the Office of Education's new educational renewal initiative. Several existing OE elementary and secondary project grant programs with outlays of $239 million will be administratively coordinated in a single office. Local school districts will be able to submit a single application for a comprehensive grant under these programs in 1973. A portion of these funds will be concentrated on a limited number of low-income school districts to encourage comprehensive planning and integrated programs at the local level. Federal funds of $16 million will support a new experimental system of information dissemination to help install promising new educational techniques. The Office of Education will continue to support a number of successful personnel development programs which will benefit over 165,000 individuals who will upgrade or acquire new skills in the education field. Funds will be increased for major educational technology demonstrations, a new television reading program, and the national right-to-read program. The 1973 budget also continues support for the national assessment of educational achievement being conducted by the Education Commission of the States. Table 1-8 summarizes the Federal outlays for education research and innovation. 126 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table I-& FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION RESEARCH AND INNOVATION (in millions of dollars) Agency and program 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Research and development: Health, Education, and Welfare: National Institute of Education Office of Education research and development 85 2 90 50 54 Subtotal, research and development 85 92 104 82 11 48 34 5 91 34 69 41 6 90 45 60 41 10 3 5 112 54 29 41 20 15 132 60 43 40 37 21 142 65 52 45 Subtotal, innovation and demonstration 440 551 608 Total.... 525 643 712 Innovation and demonstration: Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Educational renewal: Renewal site development and dissemination Bilingual education and drop out prevention Follow Through Teacher Corps and other personnel development Career education model development and training National priority programs (including right to read, drug abuse education, educational technology) Statistics and evaluation Supplementary services Education for the handicapped Other, Office of Education... National Science Foundation and other HIGHER EDUCATION Federal outlays for higher education will total $7.4 billion in 1973. This is 47% of total Federal outlays for education. About 20% of the estimated total expenditures of U.S. colleges and universities in 1973 will come directly from Federal sources. Table 1-9 indicates the major Federal agencies and programs contributing to higher education. The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare provides the largest amount of support with 54% of total Federal expenditures. Major Federal programs include: (a) grants and loans to college students by the Office of Education; (b) grants, loans, and interest subsidies for construction of facilities by OE, NIH, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development; (c) grants and loans to students and direct support to institutions in medical and allied health fields by HEW; (d) fellowship and traineeship programs by several agencies; (e) project grants for academic research by several agencies; and (f) payments to college students from the Veterans Administration and the Social Security Administration. SPECIAL ANALYSES 127 Table 1-9. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION BY AGENCY AND PROGRAM (in millions of dollars) Agency and program 1971 actual Defense: Academic research Military service academies and Reserve officers training corps __ 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 198 318 192 343 197 346 516 535 543 745 340 303 913 216 340 918 140 336 1,388 1,469 1,394 702 380 150 271 455 97 780 397 142 376 505 1 138 889 410 111 491 537 30 156 Subtotal, Other Health, Education, and Welfare 2,055 2,339 2, 624 Housing and Urban Development (primarily college housing) Atomic Energy Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation Veterans Administration: Readjustment benefits Other 118 101 128 353 1,252 243 69 93 133 413 1, 706 293 64 94 136 432 1,828 330 6,153 7,050 7,445 Subtotal, Department of Defense . Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Student assistance Construction of facilities Institutional and personnel development Subtotal, Office of Education Other Health, Edu:ation, and Welfare: Academic research-health and social service agencies Fellowships and traineeships-health professions NIH facilities construction Other health training institutional support Social security (student benefits) National Foundation for Higher Education Other Total, higher education Table 1-10 indicates how Federal funds are distributed by type of institution. In 1973, 2-year institutions are estimated to receive 16% of Federal outlays, 4-year institutions, 40% and graduate and professional schools, 44%, including funds for academic research. Table 1-10. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION BY TYPE OF INSTITUTION (in millions of dollars) Types of institution 2-year institutions Other undergraduate Graduate, professional, and postdoctoral Academic research and other Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,052 2,449 1,043 1,609 1,072 2,985 1,200 1,793 1,158 2,967 1,324 1,996 6,153 7,050 7,445 128 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table I—11 shows Federal expenditures for higher education by type of support. Approximately 52% of the Federal funds are used for student aid, 20% for institutional aid, and 28% for research and training. The following paragraphs discuss current Federal activities by type of support. Table 1-11. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HIGHER EDUCATION BY TYPE OF SUPPORT (in millions of dollars) Type of support 1971 actual Student support Institutional support: Current operations Facilities and equipment Research and training: Academic research . Educational research and innovation Personnel training Total 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 2,997 3,696 3,873 864 622 1,034 453 1,174 347 1,571 43 56 1,741 57 69 1,898 101 52 6,153 7,050 7,445 Student aid.—Funds for student aid programs will total an estimated $3.9 billion in 1973. The administration has proposed that no qualified student who wants to go to college should be barred by lack of funds and that student aid from the Office of Education should be targeted on lower-income undergraduate students. In academic year 1972-73, an estimated 1,280,000 grant and work study awards will be made under the Office of Education program. A secondary financial market and warehousing mechanism for student loans also has been recommended to increase the capital available for loans to students at all income levels. Table 1-12. UNDERGRADUATE STUDENT S U P P O R T 1 (Outlays in millions of dollars; number of students in thousands) Total outlays gCnCy •Health, Education, and Welfare 1971 actual 1972 estimate Number of students 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,215 1,440 1,491 2,662 3,065 3,666 2,585 3,165 Office of Education Social Security Administration Health Agencies and other. _ 721 889 908 2,221 455 39 505 46 537 46 397 44 427 53 448 53 Veterans Administration._____ Defense____ National Science Foundation. _ Justice and other 1,068 85 4 17 1,459 97 4 24 1,560 100 4 32 917 44 4 60 1,107 40 4 66 1,195 36 4 78 2,389 3,024 3,187 3,687 4,282 4,979 Total 1 Involves some duplication because students may be assisted under more than 1 program. SPECIAL ANALYSES 129 Tables 1-12 and 1-13 indicate funds expended and awards to undergraduate and graduate students by major agency. The Veterans Administration will provide grants to 1,389,000 veterans who are enrolled at institutions of higher education. Outlays of $537 million will be paid in 1973 under provisions of the Social Security Act to students under age 22 who are the children of retired, deceased, or disabled beneficiaries. Scholarships and loans to 134,000 medical, dental, and other health professional students will be made by HEW in 1973. Finally, several Federal agencies offer fellowships and traineeships to support graduate, professional and postdoctoral students in a variety of fields. A total of 42,000 such students will be aided in 1973. Table 1-13. GRADUATE S T U D E N T S U P P O R T 1 (Outlays in millions; number of students in thousands) Total outlays 1971 Health, Education, and Welfare Veterans Administration Justice. National Science Foundation. _ Other Total 1 _ 1972 N u m ber of students 1973 1971 1972 1973 timate 380 183 4 34 7 393 246 6 20 7 392 267 8 14 5 219 148 15 5 2 236 177 16 3 2 255 194 19 2 2 608 672 686 389 434 472 Involves some duplication because students may be assisted under more than 1 program. Institutional support.—Federal outlays for institutional support will total $1.5 billion in 1973 with over $1 billion for current operations and $453 million for facilities and equipment. The primary elements of aid under current operations in table I—11 are: • Cost-of-education allowances paid to institutions of higher education as part of fellowship and traineeship grants, largely in the natural and health sciences, by the National Science Foundation and HEW; • Grants to institutions made by HEW for training students in health professions and rehabilitation services; • Grants made by the OflBice of Education to developing colleges and to college libraries; and • Department of Defense funds for college ROTC activities. Federal funds for black colleges will exceed $200 million in 1973, more than double the 1969 level. Approximately 45% of this assistance consists of grants and loans to students attending the predominately black colleges. Most of the remaining aid is in the form of institutional support of which the largest share is granted by the Office of Education under the developing institutions program. The Office of Education funds will be doubled in 1973 to increase educational quality and expand professional education opportunities in a limited number of these institutions. In addition, black colleges will be the target beneficiaries of increased construction support through the interest subsidy 480-700 O—72 130 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 program of the Office of Education in 1973. The Department of Agriculture will continue its support for agricultural research and extension programs at black land-grant colleges. The National Science Foundation will also continue to support improvement of science programs at colleges and universities primarily serving minorities. The administration continues to support legislation which would authorize aid to institutions in the form of cost of education allowances related to the amount of Federal student aid administered by the Office of Education. This measure would encourage schools to enroll disadvantaged students. The Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Office of Education support construction of college and university classrooms, laboratories, libraries, and dormitories. The method of support has been shifting from direct Federal grants and loans to Federal interest subsidy payments on loans made to institutions of higher education by private lenders. Approximately $400 million in loans for new construction will be supported by Office of Education interest subsidy payments. About $300 million of new construction will be supported by the HUD college housing program. Grants are also made by the National Institute of Health for construction of health facilities at medical, dental, nursing, and other health professions schools. Research and training.—Federal outlays of $2.1 billion for research and training in 1972 include $1.9 billion for academic research, $101 million for educational research and demonstration projects, and $52 million for teacher training. The proposed National Foundation for Higher Education plays a central role in the administration's strategy for institutional reform. With a budget of $100 million in 1973, the Foundation will encourage innovation and reform by sponsoring experimental projects to develop new educational techniques. National Science Foundation programs will upgrade science curricula and facilitate incorporation of computers in college instruction. Several Federal agencies have programs for training college and university personnel. The National Science Foundation supports programs to improve the competence of college teachers. Under the Education Professions Development Act, the Office of Education continues to give special attention to personnel development in junior colleges and technical institutes. Federal outlays for academic research represent about two-thirds of the total expenditures for sponsored research performed by universities. The major agencies supporting research are HEW (medical, health, and welfare research), DOD (research related to military requirements), and the National Science Foundation (research in all fields of science). Federal programs for academic research are also discussed in Special Analysis R, "Federal Research and Development, Programs." ADULT EDUCATION AND OTHER ACTIVITIES A significant portion of Federal outlays for education is devoted to adult and various community education programs. In 1973, the estimated Federal outlays for these programs will total $1.9 billion, or 12% of all Federal education expenditures. These outlays are summarized in table 1-14. SPECIAL ANALYSES 131 Table 1-14. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR ADULT EDUCATION AND OTHER ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Sublevel and program Adult and continuing education: Adult basic Extension, continuing, and occupational education Public library services Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities Subtotal Training of public employees: Federal, State, local civilian Federal military Subtotal Foreign educational activities Other Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 78 452 58 29 21 86 535 68 44 33 91 580 51 59 54 638 766 835 33 488 35 535 42 553 521 570 595 180 186 212 232 224 256 1,525 1,780 1,910 Adult and continuing education.—This category includes Federal programs which provide educational opportunities for adults or young persons who either have not completed full-time school or college programs or who wish to continue their acquisition of knowledge and skills outside the formal educational process. Adult basic education classes enrolling over 700,000 men and women who have had less than 12 years of formal schooling will be supported by outlays of $91 million in 1973, mostly by the Office of Education, the Office of Economic Opportunity, and the Model Cities program in the Department of Housing and Urban Development. These programs, largely in low-income areas, will enable adults to acquire communication, computational, and social living skills, as well as preparing for occupational training leading to more profitable employment. In addition, support is provided for experimental projects, including educational television programing and training for teachers of adults, to meet the special educational needs of disadvantaged adults. The national right to read effort is focusing on substantially decreasing the adult illiteracy rate during the 1970's. The Department of Agriculture will spend $181 million in 1973 to support instruction in agriculture, home economics, and related subjects through land-grant college extension activities. Outlays of $319 million for the Veterans Administration readjustment benefits program for veterans and children, widows, and wives of deceased or seriously disabled veterans will benefit 485,000 individuals in 1973. A number of occupational training programs with outlays of $85 million by various agencies of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, including vocational education programs in the Office of Education will provide new or improved work skills to 4.4 million adults. The Department of Defense will support off-duty education programs for 637,000 servicemen in 1973. 132 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Other continuing education programs totaling $150 million in 1973 include: • The Federal grant to the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, a publicly supported, private nonprofit institution providing funds and operating assistance to public television and radio programs. • Office of Education grants to States for public library services and educational broadcasting facilities. • The National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities which aids various cultural activities, supports State arts councils, and funds programs in colleges and universities to improve the quality of instruction in the humanities. The Foundation's total budget in 1973 will be $90 million, almost six times the amount in 1969. Training of public employees.—This analysis includes Federal programs providing professional and technical training at educational institutions to public employees for the purpose of improving the quality of public service. Those programs not conducted at educational institutions, such as inservice or on-the-job training, are not included. The military services account for 95% or $564 million in 1973 for this continuing education effort, utilizing both institutions of higher education and their own educational facilities. Training of civilian public employees is supported by the various branches of the Armed Forces, the Foreign Service Institute in the Department of State, the FBI National Academy and Field Law Enforcement school in the Department of Justice, public health and rehabilitation manpower activities of HEW, and community development personnel training in HUD. Table 1-15. NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS BENEFITING FROM FEDERAL PROGRAMS FOR ADULT EDUCATION AND OTHER ACTIVITIES (in thousands) Sublevel and program Adult and continuing education: Adult basic Vocational education Extension and continuing education Training of public employees: Federal, State, and local employees Federal military _ 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 686 788 771 2,781 3,513 2,966 3,737 3,303 3,748 1,335 1,324 1,334 671 685 687 In 1973, an estimated 1,334,000 Federal civilian, State and local, and 687,000 military personnel will receive graduate, professional or other education. SPECIAL ANALYSES 133 Foreign education.—The Federal Government supports foreign students attending colleges and universities in the United States and provides assistance to educational institutions in foreign countries. The principal Federal agencies involved are the Department of State, the Agency for International Development, and the Action agency which administers the Peace Corps program. Other Federal support for education.—This category covers a number of Federal activities that are not conveniently classified in any other grouping. Included are the Library of Congress, the National Library of Medicine and the National Agricultural Library, the National Commission on Libraries and Information Science, the educational activities of the Smithsonian Institution, the National Archives, and three presidential libraries. PART III—COVERAGE OF THE EDUCATION SPECIAL ANALYSIS This analysis includes all Federal programs which have the direct support of educational activities as a major purpose or which involve the use of educational resources to achieve other purposes. For this analysis, education is defined as (1) a student-teacher relationship primarily for the transmission of organized knowledge, as distinguished from occupational skill, or (2) the provision of services to the community at large aimed at expanding individuals7 opportunities for professional or career advancement, for civic involvement, or for a more meaningful and satisfying leisure. Any Federal program with outlays of $500,000 or more which supports any educational activity meeting this definition is included in this analysis. This analysis does not include scientific research conducted outside of academic institutions (other than that in laboratories and other science projects of the Smithsonian Institution). Also, it does not include scientific research conducted in university-managed centers under Federal contracts. Finally, it excludes university service contracts—for example, to operate mental health centers—and many inservice training programs for Federal civilian employees. Federal support of education by agency.—Table 1-16 provides a summary of total Federal outlays for education by administering agency. It shows that only 33% of these outlays are for programs administered by the U.S. Office of Education, the Federal Government's principal agency for education programs. Other parts of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare account for 21% of all Federal outlays for education, primarily for medical education and research programs conducted at colleges and universities. The remaining 46% of total Federal education outlays are distributed among 28 Federal departments and agencies, of which the largest shares are accounted for by the Department of Defense, the Veterans Administration, the Department of Agriculture, and the National Science Foundation. 134 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table 1-16. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR EDUCATION BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Outlays Federal agency 1971 actual Legislative Branch: Library of Congress Government Printing Office Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian Regional Development programs International Development Assistance Office of Economic Opportunity Agriculture. Commerce Defense—Military Defense—Civil Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education... Other HEW Housing and Urban Development Interior Justice Labor State Transportation Treasury Atomic Energy Commission Environmental Protection Agency General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Other Independent Agencies: Action Corporation for Public Broadcasting National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities. _ _ National Science Foundation Smithsonian Institution United States Information Agency Total 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Budget authority 1973 47 3 74 3 80 4 81 4 38 117 437 1,196 25 1,191 8 42 152 254 1.596 31 1,277 8 43 153 57 1,689 34 1,336 8 35 187 24 1,673 39 1,363 20 4,543 2.273 185 210 37 67 44 24 1 107 24 9 129 1,506 4,867 2,790 160 225 48 79 45 31 2 96 24 9 134 2,018 5,187 3,304 190 256 67 79 55 31 5,921 3,582 149 257 57 79 61 35 97 26 11 137 2,166 97 27 11 131 2,171 26 23 29 392 43 2 25 35 51 450 64 2 27 45 79 472 67 2 27 45 90 526 54 2 12,736 14,592 15,702 16,748 Relationship to other special budget analyses and budget functions.— All programs classified in the budget functional category for education (see part 5 of the Budget Document) are included in this special analysis except Bureau of Indian Affairs welfare and training programs. These include the programs of the Office of Education and the science education and academic research programs of the National Science Foundation. Also included are Office of Economic Opportunity education activities, college housing loans and education of American Indians. For 1973, outlays for programs classified under the budget functional category of education total $6.3 billion. In addition this analysis includes outlays of $9.4 billion for 1973 for programs classified under such other budget functional categories as "national defense" and "health." These activities use education— most often graduate training or research at academic institutions—as a means of accomplishing their primary objectives. SPECIAL ANALYSES 135 The amounts tabulated in this analysis include some programs also covered in other special analyses. For example, outlays of about $2.0 billion in 1973 are included in both this analysis and Special Analysis K, "Federal Health Programs," for university and other postsecondary programs which help train medical personnel. In addition, approximately $1.9 billion in outlays for 1973 for research in academic institutions are reflected in both this special analysis and Special Analysis R, "Federal Research, and Development Programs." Table 1-17 summarizes the outlays included in this analysis which are also included in other special analyses and by major budget functional categories. Table 1-17. FEDERAL EDUCATION OUTLAYS BY MAJOR BUDGET FUNCTIONAL CATEGORIES AND RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER SPECIAL BUDGET ANALYSES (in millions of dollars) Major functional category and special budget analysis Functional categories: Education Other categories: National defense International affairs and finance Space research and technology Agriculture Natural resources Commerce and transportation Community development and housing General science and manpower Health . Income security Veterans benefits and services General government Special analyses: Federal civil rights activities Federal health programs Federal manpower programs Federal income security programs Federal research and development programs 1971 actual __ 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 5,438 5.844 6,283 1,295 188 129 337 81 87 109 459 1,523 1,512 1,506 71 1,373 223 134 570 78 104 141 529 1,725 1,763 2,018 88 1,433 236 137 715 99 107 181 551 1,940 1,735 2,166 122 89 1,571 67 1,543 1,624 152 1,798 79 1,992 1,791 442 2,018 79 2,101 1,964 SPECIAL ANALYSIS J FEDERAL MANPOWER PROGRAMS OVERVIEW Federal manpower programs generally serve persons who would otherwise be unable to obtain self-sustaining employment. The programs fill a gap between the educational system which initially prepares persons for their careers, and income security programs which provide income for persons who are unable to work because of age, incapacity, or economic conditions. The expanding capability of manpower programs to reach and serve the disadvantaged makes them an important tool in attacking the Nation's social problems. Manpower programs also complement national economic policy. Effective job placement and training programs train and place enrollees in skill-shortage occupations. In a tight labor market, such activities reduce inflationary pressures by increasing the productivity of marginal workers and by enabling employers to obtain skilled workers who would otherwise be unavailable. During periods of high unemployment, work and training programs can be used to increase the skills of the work force and serve as a source of income support for unemployed workers. The first part of this analysis presents the highlights of the 1973 budget for Federal manpower programs and the major legislative proposals which will affect them. Later sections describe the different types of programs, giving details on the numbers of persons served and the types of services provided. The last portion explains the coverage of the analysis and provides a detailed listing of manpower funds by Federal agency. 1973 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS The 1973 budget provides outlays of $5.1 billion for manpower programs, an increase of $849 million or 20% over 1972. Federal outlays for manpower programs have risen over $4.8 billion since 1963. Outlays for principal Federal manpower programs are displayed in table J - l . A major new manpower program provides support for public service jobs as a means to reduce unemployment. Under the Emergency Employment Act, a total of $2.25 billion in budget authority will be made available to State and local governments during 1972 and 1973 to create transitional public employment opportunities. In 1973, outlays for this program are expected to reach $1.1 billion, an increase of $440 million over 1972. 136 SPECIAL ANALYSES 137 Table J-1. 1973 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS * (in millions of dollars) Program Manpower revenue sharing programs Emergency employment assistance Work incentive training Veterans programs Vocational rehabilitation Employment service Other Total Outlays 1970 actual 1971 actual 1,056 1,342 82 141 441 325 474 2,519 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 123 196 523 347 615 1,454 653 187 254 551 374 837 1,477 1,088 262 320 620 405 969 3,145 4,310 5,141 1 Due to differences in appropriation patterns, outlay adjustments have been made to show programs in a corresponding manner. For example, WIN and EEA totals are reduced because Federal administrative costs and research funds are included in its budget unlike most manpower programs. Vocational rehabilitation is increased to reflect funds received from social security trust funds. Manpower training programs authorized under the Manpower Development and Training A°t and the Economic Opportunity Act will remain essentially level in 1973. These programs comprise 29% of total Federal expenditures for manpower services. During 1973, the Department of Labor will give States and local governments a greater role in the allocation of funds between the more than a dozen programs supported under these two acts. Under its veterans readjustment programs, the Federal Government supports the training of veterans for civilian occupations. In 1973, outlays by the Veterans Administration will increase $66 million for a total of $320 million to serve an increasing number of returning servicemen. Substantial improvements will be made in the work incentive (WIN) program in 1973 to better serve the training and employment needs of welfare recipients. These changes include a mandatory work registration requirement for employable welfare recipients, a public service employment component, and reduced requirements for State matching funds. Outlays by the Departments of Labor and Health, Education, and Welfare for this program will increase by $75 million from 1972 to $270 million in 1973. 1973 LEGISLATIVE PROGRAM The administration has proposed two legislative measures which will make major changes in the design and effectiveness of manpower programs. Manpower revenue sharing is an essential element in the overall strategy for reform of the Federal grant-in-aid system. The manpower revenue sharing proposal is aimed at improving the effectiveness of many of the present manpower programs by proposing basic changes in the system for delivering services: • Categorical programs under the Manpower Development and Training Act and the Economic Opportunity Act will be consolidated to give more flexibility in designing and operating programs tailored to meet the needs of individual participants and local labor market conditions. 138 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 • Primary responsibility for planning and administering manpower programs will be decentralized to State and local governments. This decentralization will permit local communities to develop comprehensive strategies for meeting manpower needs. • Eighty-five percent of the funds will be allocated to States and local areas by a formula based on size of labor force and the numbers of unemployed and disadvantaged. The remaining 15% will be used by the Secretary of Labor for research and development, training and technical assistance, and evaluation activities. Additional funds will be requested in the first year of manpower revenue sharing to reach a total of $2 billion in budget authority. The proposed effective date for manpower revenue sharing is July 1, 1973. Another major manpower proposal is an integral part of the administration's welfare reform legislation. The bill would establish an opportunities for families program (OFP), a comprehensive program of income support, training, transitional public employment, child care, and support services in the Department of Labor. This new program will replace the present work incentive (WIN) program and will build upon the recently enacted improvements. A total of $2.2 billion in new budget authority would be provided in the first full 3^ear of OFP, exclusive of income support. Major incentives to foster the goal of self-support under welfare reform will be provided by: • Including coverage of the "working poor," thus encouraging families to stay together rather than to separate. • Reducing benefits by $800 if an adult family member refuses work or training. • Insuring that individuals will always gain financially by going to work. • Expanding greatly the supply of quality child care services for mothers who are at work or training. • Adding a new upgrading program to help lift the "working poor" out of poverty. • Replacing the joint administration in the present WIN program at the Federal, State, and local level with a single system of accountable program managers. • Permitting the purchase of child care and supportive services from any qualified deliverer instead of the current mandatory use of State or local welfare agencies regardless of performance. The administration has also proposed major legislation to strengthen the process for eliminating barriers to equal employment for minority groups. Under this legislation the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission could file civil suits in the U.S. district courts when it is unable to obtain voluntary compliance with title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. SPECIAL ANALYSES 139 MAJOR MANPOWER PROGRAMS This section of the analysis summarizes the different manpower programs by type of program—either skill training; work support; labor market services; or program direction, research, and support. Skill training programs.—In addition to skill training, these programs generally offer remedial education, counseling, and other supportive services. Most of the current programs concentrate on one of the following approaches to training: • Institutional training programs provide vocational skill instruction in a classroom setting away from the jobsite. Enrollees receive monetary allowances while in training. • On-the-job training programs target on existing job vacancies, usually by reimbursing employers for the added costs of hiring and training unskilled workers. This reimbursement may include a payment for the employee's lower initial productivity. • Rehabilitation programs focus on the training of physically or mentally disabled persons. They are separately classified since health services account for 18% of total costs in these programs, significantly higher than in other manpower programs. Use of these different approaches to training often reflects employer preferences or traditional methods of entry into a particular occupation or industry. For example, production line workers such as assemblers in the automobile industry are generally trained on the job. On the other hand, most secretaries learn their basic job skills in the classroom. Individual trainee needs are also an important factor in the selection of the service approach. In on-the-job training programs the trainee is hired for a specific job, and then trained. This guarantee of employment may be an essential start to successful training of many of the hard-core unemployed. However, institutional training can provide a broader training base not limited to one particular job, giving the trainee more job mobility and security. In recent years, two comprehensive programs—the work incentive program (WIN) and the concentrated employment program (CEP)— have been initiated to provide a complete range of training services. WIN serves recipients of public assistance, and CEP serves disadvantaged persons in limited geographical areas of high unemployment. Both provide institutional and on-the-job training as well as work support programs. Thus, they are valuable models for the operation of comprehensive community manpower programs under manpower revenue sharing. 140 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table J-2. SKILL TRAINING PROGRAMS (outlays in millions of dollars, individuals in thousands) New enrollees J Outlays 1970 1971 actual actual Job opportunities in the business sector Public service careers _. Manpower development and training institutional training Job Corps CEP training WIN training On-the-job training for veterans. ___ Veterans vocational rehabilitation__ Vocational rehabilitation Social services training Other programs Total 1 1972 est. 1973 est. 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 est. 1973 est. 136 18 177 39 194 79 176 46 177 4 184 19 136 30 131 25 260 144 94 66 87 53 441 50 38 338 174 99 91 117 77 523 42 52 353 185 94 126 161 91 551 55 72 358 190 88 161 209 108 620 57 94 130 43 75 87 70 13 411 147 45 164 50 55 84 72 14 468 154 63 166 53 49 94 68 15 517 162 78 166 55 49 106 68 15 558 170 75 1,388 1,730 1,960 2,107 1,202 1,327 1,368 1,418 Estimated new enrollees during a year, less overlap due to persons served more than once. Table J-2 presents the outlays and numbers of individuals served by various Federal training programs. The remainder of this section includes a brief description of these programs as they currently exist. However, under manpower revenue sharing it is expected that States and localities will develop new programs and adapt old ones to meet their specific needs. Institutional training.—The largest institutional training program, serving 166,000 persons in 1973, is operated jointly by the Departments of Labor and Health, Education, and Welfare under the authority of the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA). The MDTA institutional program provides training through skill centers—which provide a range of training and services—special training courses, and individual referral to public and private training. In 1969, the Job Corps was reorganized and redirected to emphasize smaller centers in major cities. This change will help to personalize the centers and relate their activities to the needs of local labor markets. Eleven of these new centers were opened during 1971. Early retention rates for these first centers appear to be quite favorable. New enrollments in the Job Corps during 1973 will total 55,000 persons, a 28% increase over the 1970 level. Institutional training is the largest component of the work incentive (WIN) program and the concentrated employment program (CEP). Outlays for these two components will rise from $160 million in 1970 to $249 million in 1973. Generally, WIN and CEP purchase training services from other community-based sources and, in this way, help to strengthen the capability of communities to undertake the program envisioned by the manpower revenue sharing proposal. Other major institutional training programs are included in the model cities and community action programs, which are proposed for consolidation into the broad revenue sharing grant for urban community development. Special training programs for Indians, criminal offenders, and welfare recipients are operated by the Departments of the Interior, Justice, and Health, Education, and Welfare, respectively. SPECIAL ANALYSES 141 On-the-job training (OJT).—Outlays for on-the-job training have grown less rapidly during the past several years, primarily due to the ready availability of skilled workers. The job opportunities in the business sector (JOBS) program is the largest OJT program. This program, operated in conjunction with the National Alliance of Businessmen, provides job opportunities in private industry and supportive services such as minor medical services and remedial education. A recently redesigned JOBS optional component is utilized in cases where the full-range of supportive services is not required. JOBS optional, administered by State agencies, is proving to be very popular, and outlays will increase to $60 million in 1973 as additional opportunities are provided. Veterans OJT is provided by the Veterans Administration to former servicemen pursuing an approved course of full-time apprenticeship or other on-the-job training. The program is growing substantially to serve the rising number of eligible veterans. Using the "hire first, then train" principle, the public service careers (PSC) program brings disadvantaged persons into regular positions in Federal, State, and local government. PSC training funds can be linked with wages provided under the emergency employment assistance program to provide a total manpower package for State and local governmental agencies. Rehabilitation.—Both the Federal-State vocational rehabilitation program administered by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, and the vocational rehabilitation program for disabled veterans administered by the Veterans Administration focus on the rehabilitation of physically or mentally handicapped persons. These programs are not included in the manpower revenue sharing legislation. Outlays for the Federal-State vocational rehabilitation (VR) program, currently the largest single manpower program, have increased by 40% since 1970. Under the VR program, clients are prepared for competitive employment, homemaking, or sheltered employment. State rehabilitation agencies determine client needs and purchase services on a case-by-case basis. It is estimated that 326,000 individuals will be rehabilitated under this program in 1973. Heavy emphasis will be given to assisting public assistance recipients, criminal offenders, narcotic addicts, and alcoholics. A special 2-year effort will be initiated to serve all trainable public assistance recipients by 1974. The veterans vocational rehabilitation program provides similar services to persons with a service-connected disability. In addition to counseling and training, veterans receive subsistence allowances, disability compensation, tuition, books, and fees. Work support.—These programs provide transitional employment opportunities and necessary remedial services for individuals who are temporarily unable to find regular employment. In past years, they have focused principally on individuals who were handicapped in obtaining a job by their youth or old age. During 1972 and 1973, with the implementation of the 2-year Emergency Employment Act, Federal outlays for work support programs have significantly expanded. Total outlays for work support programs will rise from 19% of the manpower total in 1970 to 36% in 1973. 142 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table J-3. WORK SUPPORT PROGRAMS (outlays in millions of dollars, individuals in thousands) Outlays Program Emergency employment assistance. _ Neighborhood Youth Corps in-school and summer Neighborhood Youth Corps out-ofschool Operation mainstream CEP work support Other Total 1970 1971 actual actual New enrollees 1972 est. 1973 1970 1971 est. actual actual 653 1,088 1972 1973 est. est. 160 92 194 269 272 357 436 562 583 567 98 42 70 80 95 69 59 124 112 78 56 150 110 80 52 159 48 12 37 96 53 22 22 130 49 22 20 116 49 22 20 125 483 616 1,322 1,846 630 790 950 874 The emergency employment assistance program will provide $2.25 billion in new funds during 1972 and 1973 to State and local governments for the creation of transitional public employment opportunities. The act provides funds for public employment opportunities when the national unemployment rate exceeds 4.5%, or in local areas where the rate exceeds 6.0%. Funds are allocated to States and local governments under a formula that gives equal weight to the number of unemployed and the severity of unemployment. Under this new program, State and local governments select the highest priority employment needs and hire unemployed persons from all segments of the community with the eventual goal of permanent, unsubsidized employment. In the first months of the program, over 30% of the persons employed were veterans, and about 35% were disadvantaged. A wide variety of job opportunities were made available, with 23% of the initial jobs in public works and transportation, 18% in education, and 12% in law enforcement. Through its in-school and summer projects, the neighborhood youth corps (NYC) provides part time and summer employment for needy high school students. During the summer of 1971, about 600,000 students participated in the NYC summer program, considerably more than in any previous year. This single program enrolled nearly one-third of the Nation's disadvantaged high school students. Outlays for NYC in-school will also be increased during 1972 and 1973. NYC out-of-school now includes two different kinds of projects. The first is for youth 16 through 21, and emphasizes work experience and general employ ability training. The second and newer type, primarily for 16 and 17 year olds, includes education and skill training activities. Operation mainstream was significantly expanded during 1971, and again in 1972 to provide additional job opportunities for older workers. During 1973, 22,000 chronically unemployed adults and disadvantaged senior citizens will enter this program, a 83% increase over the 1970 level. Special projects for older persons have been doubled to enable more of the aged to engage in useful community work. Beginning in 1973, the WIN program will include a significant amount of work support when the existing special work projects authority is replaced by a less complicated public employment component. In addition, CEP provides substantial amounts of work support as a part of its comprehensive array of services. SPECIAL ANALYSES 143 Labor market services.—These programs promote a smoothly operating labor market by matching job vacancies with qualified workers, by overcoming barriers created by job discrimination, and by providing needed child care services to permit parents to engage in training or employment. They develop and disseminate information on employer and employee needs, and counsel and test jobseekers. Other services include outreach to unemployed people, and job development and job restructuring efforts with employers. Table J-4. LABOR MARKET SERVICES PROGRAMS (in million of dollars) Outlays Program 1970 Employment service Computerized job placement Project transition Other Subtotal, placement services Equal employment opportunity activities. _ Total _ _ 1971 1972 1973 325 6 14 27 347 23 15 31 374 27 16 47 405 31 27 48 372 19 416 34 464 49 511 65 391 449 513 576 Job placement assistance.—The Federal-State Employment Service (ES), with its network of 2,300 local offices and more than 30,000 employees, will provide services for about 10.4 million persons in 1973. While placement services are provided for the general labor force, special efforts are given to placement of the disadvantaged, including graduates of manpower programs. Computerized job banks were installed in nearly 100 major labor markets by 1971 to assist in job placement efforts. The job banks provide comprehensive listings, updated daily, of available jobs. During 1971 and 1972 most of the job banks will be expanded into statewide systems. Job banks have also been used to assist unemployed scientists, engineers, and technicians through the technology mobilization and reemployment program and returning veterans enrolled in Project Transition. As a part of the administration's six-point program to place unemployed veterans in jobs or training, Federal contractors must list their job openings with the Employment Service. In 1973 this requirement is expected to increase the number of employment opportunities listed by 20%. During 1972 and 1973, Employment Service agencies will expand their services to food stamp recipients through the registration requirement recently enacted by the Congress. Like other job applicants, they will be referred to appropriate job openings or training programs. It is estimated that nearly 1.5 million persons will be registered annually. Project Transition provides counseling, testing, and job placement assistance to servicemen prior to discharge. Limited skill training is provided by the Department of Labor. The Defense Department will spend about $27 million on this program in 1973, twice the amount allocated in 1970. 144 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1-973 Equal employment opportunities.—These programs attempt to reduce barriers to the employment of minorities, women, and older workers. By opening up needed job opportunities, they are critical to the success of other manpower programs. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) identifies and eliminates discriminatory employment practices through voluntary conciliation ar\d referral of cases to the Department of Justice when a pattern or practice of discrimination appears to exist. Major expansion of the EEOC has been effected with outlays rising to $30 million in 1973, a 150% increase over 1970. In 1973, the EEOC expects to increase the si^e of field office staff and double its payments to State and local equal employment opportunity agencies from $1.5 million to $3.0 million. The Office of Federal Contract Compliance (OFCC) in the Department of Labor, in cooperation with the 15 major Federal contracting agencies, insures that affirmative action plans are undertaken by Federal contractors to provide equal employment opportunities for minorities and women. The Labor Department's Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training promotes affirmative action in apprenticeship programs. Contractors practicing affirmative action have initiated or expanded active recruiting of minority applicants, revised tests to make them more directly job related, provided transportation from areas of minority housing, and started or expanded training programs to prepare unskilled workers for skilled jobs. To increase minority employment in the construction trades, the OFCC devised the "Philadelphia plan" and voluntary "hometown" programs which set employment goals for Federal construction contractors. Labor Department training funds have been utilized to foster the success of these efforts in 14 out of the 25 "hometown" and imposed citywide construction plans. In the 25 cities, goals have been established which would result in the employment of 28,000 additional minorities in construction trades. Table J-5. F E D E R A L S U P P O R T F O R DAY C A R E (outlays in millions of dollars, children supported in thousands) Program Children supported Outlays 1972 1971 1973 1971 1972 1973 Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC): WIN program Social services Income disregard Model cities 26 91 68 9 47 184 80 14 82 226 85 17 98 90 342 21 138 191 385 26 170 226 392 26 Subtotal, employment related day care 194 325 410 551 740 814 99 105 105 78 81 82 39 79 97 39 82 97 332 509 612 668 903 993 Head Start, full day AFDC nonemployment related day care Total SPECIAL ANALYSES 145 Child care services.—Expanded day care services are being provided to permit parents to participate in employment or training activities and to assist low income families in caring for their children. Day care expenditures in 1973 will total $410 million, a 26% increase over 1972. Additional funds to expand and improve day care programs are contained in the welfare reform proposal. In 1973, funds are included for initial resource development activities under welfare reform. Employment-related day care is provided through three programs— the WIN and social services programs for recipients of aid to families with dependent children (AFDC), and the model cities program. The AFDC social services program, along with Head Start, also provides day care as a support service to low income families and is discussed in Special Analysis I, "Federal Education Programs." Additional support for day care will be provided to middle income families beginning in January 1972 as a result of greatly increased tax deduction provisions contained in the Revenue Act of 1971. Preliminary estimates indicate that revenue loss for child care deductions may exceed $300 million in the first year. Manpower research, development, and evaluation.—Under the proposed manpower legislation, Federal efforts will be strengthened to provide information and technical assistance to States and local communities on methods to improve program performance. One important device for obtaining such information is research and development (R. & D.) and evaluation activities. Table J-6 summarizes Federal resources for manpower R. & D. and evaluation efforts, primarily funded by the Department of Labor and the Office of Economic Opportunity. In addition, other agencies carry out R. & D. activities affecting manpower, especially the Departments of Defense, and Health, Education, and Welfare, and the Veterans Administration. Table J-6. PROGRAM DIRECTION, RESEARCH, AND SUPPORT (in millions of dollars) Program Research and development. Evaluation Outlays 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 26 2 24 3 30 3 29 3 28 11 33 32 73 32 11 84 30 14 98 34 23 106 38 26 Subtotal 116 128 155 170 Total 143 155 188 202 Subtotal Program direction Labor market information Planning and technical assistance. 480-700 O—72 10 146 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Research and development programs seek to understand and affect the operation of labor market mechanisms. Research is conducted in a nonoperating environment while developmental activities (often termed experiments or demonstrations) seek to develop or demonstrate new service techniques in an operational setting. The Department of Labor has initiated two major demonstration projects in 25 areas which involve the creation of large numbers of transitional public employment opportunities. In one, public employment will be expanded to absorb at least 10% of the unemployed in order to assess its economic impact. In the other, about 10,000 public jobs will be created for welfare recipients to test the potential of a public employment program for moving welfare clients into jobs and reducing welfare costs. Experimentation will continue to develop improved methods for service to clients by the Federal-State Employment Service. These efforts include further refinement of the three-track comprehensive manpower service model—self-service, job development and assistance, and intensive services to the disadvantaged—and Operation Hitchhike which "piggybacks" manpower services onto existing rural institutions such as the Agricultural Extension Service. Evaluation activities seek to determine which programs work, to what extent, and under what conditions. Evaluation efforts generally focus on recently initiated programs or major program changes. A major longitudinal evaluation of four manpower programs is nearing completion. It examines the effects of the Job Corps, JOBS, MDTA institutional and NYC out-of-school programs on employment and earnings of participants and compares them with similar groups of nonparticipants. A similar study is being conducted on the WIN program. The impact of job banks on ES operations and their effect on service to clients will be examined during 1972. Program direction and support.—The effectiveness of individual programs depends both on national program administration and on the delivery of services at the local level. As a part of the overall administration effort to decentralize the management of Federal programs, several steps have been taken during recent years. Greater authority was delegated to the regional manpower administrators, uniform regional boundaries were established to improve interdepartmental coordination of social programs, and regional offices were reorganized from a categorical program basis to a geographic area basis to provide closer contacts with individual States and communities. At the State and local level the interagency cooperative area manpower planning system (CAMPS) has been strongly emphasized as a vehicle for coordination of planning efforts by various manpower agencies. In addition, staffing grants were awarded to mayors and Governors to enable them to develop their own manpower planning capability. Major steps are now underway to build upon this framework for manpower revenue sharing. CAMPS committees have been restructured as advisory councils, appointed by State and local elected officials and responsible to them. The councils will advise the Governors and mayors on manpower needs and programs and assist in the SPECIAL ANALYSES 147 development of comprehensive manpower plans for their areas. Every effort will be made to fund manpower projects in each area in accordance with the Governors and mayors recommendations. Outlays for CAMPS councils are being significantly increased in 1973 to support about 1,000 positions, compared to 650 in 1971. As a prelude to manpower revenue sharing, several pilot comprehensive manpower programs will be undertaken in 1973. In this limited demonstration effort, State and local government prime sponsors will be selected to plan, develop, administer, and evaluate manpower programs in their areas. This program will provide greater experience in decentralized management of a comprehensive manpower program. PERSONS SERVED Enrollment and training levels.—Man-years of training and new enrollments are the output measures used in this analysis. Man-years is the average enrollment during the year and new enrollments are the number of different people served during each fiscal year. In a few programs, e.g., NYC in-school and summer, a significant number of people enroll in more than one program within a single year, or in the same program several years in succession. In these cases, this analysis uses a net figure which deducts the overlap. In some programs there are periods when no significant amounts of services are provided, e.g., persons awaiting services in the concentrated employment program. The analysis uses a man-years of service estimate to exclude such periods. Table J-7 shows the various measures by service approach. Table J-7. TOTAL ENROLLMENT AND TRAINING LEVELS IN 1971 * (in thousands) Approach On-the-job training Institutional training Rehabilitation Postschool work support Subtotal, postschool In-school work support Total 1 Man-years Man-years of service Enrollees New enrollecs 193 310 590 88 192 295 590 85 308 579 488 154 290 555 482 144 1,181 225 1,162 225 1,530 770 1,470 646 1,407 1,387 2,300 2,116 Excludes job placement assistance programs in which the enrollment concept does not apply. Characteristics.—The 11.1 million adults who were poor in 1970, of whom about half were in the labor force but earning less than the low-income standard, is a rough representation of the universe of need for manpower programs. The universe actually may be considerably larger, since many persons earn slightly more than the lowincome level and are vulnerable to skill obsolescence and unemployment. However, many poor adults are not good candidates for manpower services because of ill health, old age, or conflicting family responsibilities. For these individuals income maintenance programs are more appropriate. 148 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 The focus of most Federal manpower programs on the low income universe reflects the judgment that persons with severe employment handicaps are least likely to be able to improve their employment experience without assistance. For example, the manpower programs administered by the Department of Labor emphasize services to poor persons who are not suitably employed, and are either (1) school dropouts, (2) under 22 years of age, (3) 45 years of age or over, (4) handicapped, or (5) subject to special employment obstacles such as racial discrimination. This focus on the disadvantaged avoids displacement of private training efforts which are generally targeted on different groups. Table J-8 indicates that manpower programs are meeting their intended targets: the poor, the less educated, members of minorities, youth, and welfare recipients. Older persons are a small part of the population served since employment is often less appropriate than income support. Table J-8. CHARACTERISTICS OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE, ADULT LOW INCOME POPULATION, AND MANPOWER PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS Characteristics Average number (millions) Percent: Aged 21 or less Aged 45 or more Male . Less than high school education 8th grade education or less Poor Public assistance recipients Disabled Minority races Total U.S. work force 1970 (age 16-64) civilian, noninstitutional 79.5 Low income Manpower population program 1970 participants (age 16-64) 1971 civilian, non- estimate (age l institutional 14 and above) 11.1 14 28 62 34 15 7 1 23 34 39 68 40 100 35 11 30 1.8 36 13 54 57 20 76 30 36 39 1 All entries are estimates. Excludes job placement assistance and in-school programs. 2 Not available. The number of individuals served by manpower programs is a growing proportion of the poverty population. In 1971 manpower programs served about 13% of the 11.1 million poor adults compared to 8% in 1969. As indicated in table J-9 below, the characteristics of enrollees served by different approaches vary considerably. In 1971, OJT enrollees were still among the least disadvantaged because on-the-job training programs tend to enroll those most job-ready. Institutional programs now serve high proportions of welfare clients and educationally disadvantaged primarily due to the growth of the WIN program. Most disabled persons are served by rehabilitation programs targeted to their special needs. The postschool work support programs tended to focus on the most disadvantaged groups and provide a source of short-term employment and income for individuals who have no immediate prospects for regular jobs. With the implementation of the large-scale emergency employment assistance program in 1972, the characteristics of enrollees in work support programs should more closely resemble those in manpower programs generally. SPECIAL ANALYSES 149 Table J-9. CHARACTERISTICS OF ENROLLEES BY APPROACH IN 1971 (in percent) Approach On-the-job training Institutional training Rehabilitation __ Postschool work support Subtotal, postschool_ In-school work support Total Poor Less than Minority high races school education Aged 21 or less Male Public assistance recipients Disabled 61 86 67 98 46 46 52 78 40 51 21 52 31 38 30 55 76 39 56 59 10 53 13 35 4 5 100 7 76 100 57 98 39 57 36 100 54 53 30 32 36 0 84 71 45 57 54 31 24 SERVICES PROVIDED Each major program approach provides a substantially different mix of services, as shown in table J-10. Table J-10. DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS BY APPROACH IN 1971 (in percent) Approach Service Remedial education __ Skill training.. Work supervision Health Recruitment, counseling, and placement. _ _ Other supportive services2 Program administration Allowances Total OJT Institutional l Work support Rehabilitation Job placemerit assistance 1 15 * * 3 38 5 38 14 30 * 1 7 2 10 36 3 2 9 * 5 2 11 68 1 6 0 18 28 25 7 15 * * 1 * 82 2 15 * 100 100 100 100 100 *Less than 0.5%. Excludes program direction, research, and support. Includes State and local shares. Includes payments to employers to compensate for lower productivity of trainees and amounts which could not be allocated to other services. 1 2 Most OJT programs reimburse employers for the cost of training and other supportive services, although a few programs provide allowances and other services directly to enrollees. The institutional programs focus on remedial education and skill training. Work support programs emphasize payment of wages for work performed, and work supervision. Job placement assistance programs provide counseling, placement, and such services as child care to allow parents to work. Overall, allowances and wages are the largest part of manpower costs, reflecting the need of enrollees for income support while participating in training. This need will be somewhat reduced with the enactment of welfare reform legislation providing basic income support to all needy families with children, although incentive allowances will still be provided. 150 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 While a comprehensive array of services is provided by manpower programs in total, the actual services available to each enrollee are often limited to those of the particular program in which he participates. Consolidation and coordination of programs under the manpower revenue sharing proposal will better enable enrollees to receive the services which are most appropriate to their needs. Table J-11. UNIT COSTS BY APPROACH IN 1971 * Man-year unit cost estimate Approach On-the-job training Institutional training Rehabilitation Postschool work support Subtotal, postschool In-school work support Total __ Average Particiduration pant unit of enrollcost ment estimate (years) $2,000 2,600 1,150 3,600 0.48 .34 1.26 .49 $1,000 900 1,450 1,750 1,850 1,600 .54 .26 1,000 400 1,800 .45 800 1 Based on man-years of service. Includes State and local share, if any. Excludes child care components. All dollar amounts rounded to nearest 50. In addition to the great variance in services provided by program and approach, there are significant differences in overall unit costs. Table J-11 shows that in 1971, unit costs were highest for postschool work support programs, reflecting the high cost of wages paid. Both man-year and participant costs are lowest for in-school programs, because they are part-time or of short duration. OJT costs are somewhat reduced because the employers' payment of salary costs obviates the need for allowances in most cases. In all approaches except rehabilitation, the participant unit cost is lower than the man-year cost because the duration of enrollment is less than 1 year. Within all approaches, unit costs vary widely among individual programs reflecting the intensity of services and the clientele group served. For example, the work incentive program pays lower allowances than most programs because enrollees are already receiving welfare payments. Job Corps has a high unit cost because housing and meals are provided in addition to an intensive training program. COVERAGE OF THIS ANALYSIS Manpower programs, as that term is used in this analysis, are Federal programs intended to influence directly the quality and composition of the work force by increasing the skills and employment opportunities of individuals in the work force, or those who desire to be in it but who are vocationally unprepared or face other barriers to employment. Programs serving this objective provide skill training, transitional employment experience, job placement assistance, and related child care, social and health services. Manpower programs generally: (1) operate outside the normal educational processes, (2) give services for periods of less than 1 year, (3) provide skill training and job opportunities for nonprofessional jobs, and (4) target on the disadvantaged sector of the population. SPECIAL ANALYSES 151 The analysis covers all programs classified as Manpower Training and Employment Services in the functional classification of the budget, and programs which are directed toward similar objectives but are included under other functional classifications such as Income Security, National Defense, Community Development and Housing, and Veterans Benefits and Services. (See Part 4 of the Budget of the United Stetes, 1973.) It excludes all professional training, and programs which are part of the normal educational process, such as vocational education. These programs are included in Special Analysis I, "Federal Education Programs." MANPOWER FUNDS BY AGENCY The following table shows manpower obligations and outlays by administering agency and program. Two agencies—the Departments of Labor, and Health, Education, and Welfare will account for 87% of all manpower outlays in 1973, about the same as in past years. Table J-12. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR MANPOWER PROGRAMS BY ADMINISTERING AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Obligations Outlays Agency and program 1970 1971 1972 1973 1970 1972 1971 1973 Office of Economic Opportunity: 0 E 0 manpower 32 35 33 39 30 33 35 37 Department of Defense: Project Transition 14 15 16 27 14 15 16 27 51 112 482 45 185 558 57 338 649 6 60 396 711 20 50 112 441 42 185 523 55 311 551 6 57 393 620 20 8 10 4 6 5 5 Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social services training WIN and social services day care. _ Vocational rehabilitation Upward mobility Foster grandparents Vocational work study Subtotal, HEW Department of Housing and Urban Development: Model cities manpower Model cities child care Community development training Subtotal, HUD Department of the Interior: On-the-job training for Indians.. Institutional training for Indians. _ Indian placement assistance Subtotal, the Interior Department of Justice: Training of offenders 657 8 6 6 803 1,056 1,193 9 2 4 613 763 928 1,095 24 9 39 15 1 45 19 2 45 19 2 6 2 24 9 1 33 14 2 41 17 2 33 55 65 65 8 34 49 60 3 29 5 3 29 6 3 31 6 3 32 6 2 26 5 38 37 40 41 33 1 26 5 33 3 31 6 40 3 32 6 41 3 4 5 5 3 152 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table J-12. FEDERAL FUNDS FOR MANPOWER PROGRAMS BY ADMINISTERING AGENCY (in millions of dollars)—Continued Obligations Agency and program Department of Labor: Manpower revenue sharing Emergency employment assistance Work incentive training Employment service Computerized job placement ES labor market information BLS labor market information OFCC and age discrimination Program administration and other. Subtotal, Labor Veterans Administration: On-the-job training for veterans. _ Veterans vocational rehabilitation. Veterans assistance centers Subtotal, VA__._ 1970 1971 Lctual actual 1972 est. Outlays 1973 1970 1971 est. actual actual 1972 1973 est. est. 1,344 1,535 1,598 1,538 1,056 1,342 1,454 1,477 99| 1,238 653 1,088 80 325 325 12 27 9 1 113 64 349 23 24 10 3 132 177 374 36 28 11 4 178 112 405 40 27 14 4 180 67 325 6 23 9 1 105 97 140 347 374 23 27 20 22 10 11 3 4 12 \ 163 180 405 31 24 14 4 172 1,911 2,140 3,397 3,558 1,592 1,963 2,848 3,394 87 53 1 117 77 1 161 91 2 209 108 2 87 53 1 117 77 1 161 91 2 209 108 2 141 196 254 320 141 196 254 320 22 20 12 23 Action: Foster Grandparents. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission: Equal employment opportunity. _ 13 16 23 31 12 16 22 30 All Federal agencies: Disadvantaged youth programs. _ Federal contract compliance 67 7 74 15 78 24 78 32 67 6 74 15 78 23 78 31 Total 2,916 3,390 5,013 5,409 2,519 3,145 4,310 5,141 SPECIAL ANALYSIS K * FEDERAL HEALTH PROGRAMS Overview.—Federal outlays for health in 1973 are estimated at $25.5 billion, 10.3% of all Federal expenditures. While health outlays in 1973 are $1.7 billion more than in 1972, their share of the total Federal budget is only slightly larger than in 1972. The following table shows recent trends and the marked increase in Federal health expenditures: Table K-l. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HEALTH COMPARED TO THE TOTAL FEDERAL BUDGET (dollars in billions) Actual 1965 1967 1969 Estimated 1970 1971 1972 1973 Total Federal outlays $118.4 $158.3 $184.6 $196.6 $211.4 $236.6 $246.3 Federal health outlays $5.2 $10.8 $16.6 $18.1 $20.2 $23.8 $25.5 Health as percent of total outlays. _ 4.4 6.8 8.9 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.3 Table K-2 summarizes and distributes Federal health expenditures for selected years by three major categories and the major components of those categories. Of the total increase in 1973 over 1972 ($1.7 billion), about 60% is attributable to programs which finance personal medical care, whereas 25% of the increase goes for health resources development and 15% for the prevention and control of health problems. !8 Outlays in Part 4___ ----Plus health outlays assigned to other functions in: Department of Defense Veterans Administration All other agencies - ' 2.6 2. 7 2. 1 Equal total health outlays in this analysis 25. 5 Both Part 4 and this analysis use the same categorical framework to distribute health outlays. However, for technical reasons Part 4 does not make as detailed a distribution in the outlays from a single appropriation as is done in this analysis. Thus, some outlays are assigned in this analysis to a different category. 153 154 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table K-2. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY CATEGORY (in millions of dollars) Development of health resources, total Health research Training and education Construction of health facilities Organization and delivery of health services l _ Financing and providing of hospital and medical services, total Direct Federal hospital and medical services _ . . Hospital and medical services, indirect Prevention and control of health problems, total. Disease prevention and control Environmental control Consumer safety Total outlays from Federal and trust funds. 1 2 1965 actual 1969 actual 1971 actual (1,807) 1,040 317 450 (3,111) 1,528 805 612 166 (3,558) 1,565 1,113 548 331 1972 estimate 1973 estimate (4,033) (4,475) 1,755 1,982 1,287 1,458 605 600 386 435 (2,936) (12,794) (15,922) (18,887)(19,928) 2,022 2,860 3,339 3,829 4,130 914 9,934 12,583 15,058 15,798 * (418) (651) (698) (856) (1,124) 411 399 496 642 86 92 106 161 154 207 254 321 5,161 16,556 20,178 23,776 25,527 Not tabulated prior to 1967 as a separate activity. Not separately broken out prior to 1969. Until the middle 1960's Federal health outlays accounted for about 13% of total national health expenditures. These outlays were predominantly directed toward biomedical research, construction of community hospitals, and the provision of medical care to special Federal beneficiaries, such as veterans, military personnel, and their dependents. Since the enactment of Medicare, Medicaid, and programs to support the education of health manpower, Federal outlays have grown markedly and, in 1971, amounted to 26% of the Nation's total expenditures for health (table K-3). The chart following table K-3 displays the Federal health dollar in 1965 and 1973 and shows its changing distribution by activity. Table K-3. FEDERAL HEALTH OUTLAYS AND NATIONAL HEALTH EXPENDITURES (dollars in billions) 1965 Total national health expenditures Health share of GNP (percent) Federal health expenditures Federal share of total (percent) $38.9 5.9 $5.1 13 1971 $75.0 7.4 $20 26 155 SPECIAL ANALYSES Distribution of All Federal Health Dollars Training and Education Training and Education $1,458 Prevention ana Control $1,124 Fiscal Year 1965 Fiscal Year 1973 ($5.1 Billion) ($25.5 Billion) FEDERAL HEALTH POLICIES AND THE 1973 BUDGET The shifts in the distribution of the Federal dollar and the increase in the Federal share of the Nation's total health expenditures reflect problems of national importance for which this administration has taken action. A summary of selected key problem areas and the administration's response follow: Problem Area Financial barriers to access to health care Administration Action • A Federal Family Health Insurance Plan for low income families with children. • A basic health insurance package which must be offered by all employers to employees and their families. • Insurance pools to offer insurance to people not covered by the above two programs. • Elimination of the monthly Medicare insurance premium for physician services. 156 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Problem Area Inflation in medical care prices. Administration Action • Accelerated research and demonstration on methods and incentives to increase efficiency in the medical delivery system. • An increase in the supply of health manpower. • The use of cost-sharing approaches to increase cost consciousness by both patients and medical personnel. • Special price and wage guidelines established by the Cost of Living Council. Problem Area Inefficient and overlapping health care delivery systems. Administration Action • Loans and grant assistance to stimulate the growth and use of Health Maintenance Organizations (HMO's). • An increase in the number of area health planning agencies and a strengthening of their role in guiding the kinds of facilities and services needed. • An emphasis on ambulatory care facilities in Federal construction grants. • Stimulation of the use of research results in new techniques and new technology for health care delivery. Problem Area Undersupply and maldistribution oj medical personnel. Administration Action • Placement of Federal health personnel in medically underserved geographic areas. • Programs to stimulate greater use of primary care physicians. • New and higher funding levels to provide assured Federal support to health professional schools. • Emphasis on the use of allied health manpower. • Development of area health education centers. Problem Area Inadequate development or use oj preventive approaches which can avoid or minimize the need jor health care treatment. Administration Action • Reform in nonhealth programs such as welfare, housing, etc., which impact on health status. • A private Health Education Foundation to improve public awareness of measures needed to maintain good health. • An increased attack on health problems resulting from environmental pollutants and communicable diseases. • Accelerated consumer safety activities in the inspection of foods, drugs, and consumer products to prevent injuries or illnesses from health hazards. • Intensified biomedical research, particularly in cancer and sickle-cell anemia. SPECIAL ANALYSES 157 • Health care projects directed toward prenatal and well-baby care. • Regulations requiring State Medicaid programs to provide medical screening for children from birth to age 21. • Efforts to identify and eliminate occupational health hazards. Problem Area Special medical problems Administration Action • New or expanded programs in family planning, drug addiction, alcoholism and nursing home standards and inspection. Federal health programs—as indicated in table K-2—can be grouped into three basic categories—programs designed to increase health resources, programs to provide health and medical services (both directly and indirectly through financing), and programs aimed at the prevention and control of health problems. Included in these three categories, however, are special impact programs that address particular national problems that warrant a targeted response. Special Analysis K addresses each of these three categories followed by a section on special impact programs. HEALTH RESOURCES Health resources refer to health research, health manpower training and education, construction of medical and health facilities, and efforts directed toward improving the organization and delivery of health services. The combined outlays for these programs will rise to $4,475 million in 1973, an increase of $442 million over 1972. Health research.— A key to the prevention and treatment of disease is an understanding of the disease process through biomedical research. Of the total funds spent nationally for health research, the Federal Government accounts for 64% of national expenditures; private industry accounts for 27%; and foundations, voluntary health agencies, and others provide the remaining 9%. As is indicated in tables K-17 through K-19, health research is supported in a variety of areas by some 13 Federal agencies. This effort has grown by approximately 30% in the past 4 years, from approximately $1.53 billion in 1969 to $1.98 billion in 1973. The principal Federal effort for biomedical research is in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW), which accounts for 70% of total Federal health research expenditures. Almost 90% of this total is provided through the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). Federal funds support a wide range of research, such as basic research, disease-oriented research, population research, and environmental health research in a number of settings. Table K-4 displays some of the major areas of federally supported health research. In 1973, special emphasis will continue to be placed on high priority research areas. Funds for cancer research will grow to $430 million, an average annual increase of $100 million for 1972 and 1973. Research in cardiovascular disease will be intensified through the creation of a national network of centers that will be concerned 158 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 with all major facets of heart disease—prevention, epidemiology, genesis, clinical manifestations, and treatment. Outlays for cardiovascular research will reach $152 million in 1973. In still another priority research area, funds for research on sickle cell anemia, a serious hereditary blood disorder that affects one out of every 500 young blacks, will be increased by 50% over the 1972 level. Otner areas of health research on which emphasis will be placed include pulmonary disease, digestive diseases and nutrition, allergic diseases, mental health, more effective and socially acceptable contraceptive methods, and environmental health problems. NIH will increase its research efforts on environmental health hazards, as will other agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Transportation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Department of Defense (Defense). Defense and the Veterans Administration (VA) together provide one-tenth of Federal health research support and are concerned with a number of disease entities and health problems related to their specific missions but which have broader implications. Defense re-r search concentrates upon traumatic injury and surgical casualt} management, infectious disease, hazard protection and military psychiatry. VA emphasizes those diseases that afflict its patient population. Table K-4. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR HEALTH RESEARCH (in millions of dollars) 1969 actual Basic research Categorical research and development, subtotal, Cancer Cardiovascular Mental health Neurological and visual Population and family planning Environmental health Other categorical research and development Research facilities construction Research, total 1971 actual 562 (903) 170 142 76 88 54 87 286 62 489 (1,027) 161 107 86 58 24 196 395 49 1,528 1,565 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 527 576 (1,170) (1,357) 228 278 130 152 88 96 64 56 33 41 253 225 409 473 58 48 1,755 1,982 Training and education.—The rising demand for health services, resulting in part from increased Federal efforts in financing and organizing health services, is being met with Federal support to increase the supply of medical manpower. A variety of Federal programs aid health professions schools, provide student assistance, and emphasize the training of allied health personnel. Overall, Federal outlays in 1973 for health manpower training and education will be $1,458 million. The principal programs of direct support for professional health manpower and nurses are operated by HEW under the recently enacted Comprehensive Health Manpower Training Act of 1971 and the Nurse Training Act of 1971. The major elements of these programs are: • institutional assistance in the form of both formula and project support to increase enrollment and improve the quality of instruction, and • student assistance in the form of scholarships and loans. SPECIAL ANALYSES 159 A significant new element in Federal institutional support for health professions schools will be capitation payments based on the number of students enrolled. Capitation amounts in 1973 will be $1,775 per student and $2,828 per graduate in schools of medicine, osteopatlry, and dentistry; $1,592 per student in schools of veterinary medicine; $741 per student in schools of optometry, podiatry, and pharmacy; and $125 per student and $250 per graduate in schools of nursing. The 1973 budget also contains special capitation bonuses for enrollment increases and special amounts for 2-year medical and dental schools that convert to full-term institutions as well as for new schools of medicine and dentistry. Under these expanded authorities, outlays will increase $217 million in 1973 over 1971, an increase of 56% over the 2-year period. The outlay increase from 1972 to 1973 will be $106 million or 2 1 % . Enrollment in medical schools—perhaps the most critical institutional component of the health manpower development complex—has shown a large increase since 1964 with the addition of more than 4,400 first-year places. Of the total budgets of the Nation's medical schools, $1,144 million, or more than 50% was derived from Federal grants or contracts. Support for the education and training programs of medical schools, however, shows significant increases in 1972 and 1973 over the levels of earlier years. Table K-5 shows Federal funds paid to medical schools. Table K-5. MAJOR AGENCIES PROVIDING FEDERAL FUNDS TO MEDICAL SCHOOLS (obligations in millions of dollars) Agency Department of Health, Education, and Welfare National Institutes of Health Research Education and training Construction Other Health Services and Mental Health Administration Research Education and training Food and Drug Administration Research _ Other Department of Defense—Military Other Atomic Energy Commission Research Construction National Aeronautics and Space Administration Research Veterans Administration Research Other Independent Agencies Research Total Research Education and training Construction Other * Less than $1 million. 1971 actual (845) '796) 638 75 81 2 (48) 11 36 (1) 1 * (4) 4 (14) 13 * 1972 estimate 1973 estimate (1,080) (1,110) (1,022) (1,052) 750 803 212 204 57 42 3 3 (50) (55) 13 13 37 42 (9) (3) Q 3 o * 1 (9) (5) 5 5 (14) (14) 13 14 * * 5 1 8 (877) 678 111 81 6 10 11 (1,113) (1,144) 793 853 241 254 42 57 8 8 160 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 In 1973, $7 million will be obligated by HEW programs designed especially to recruit minority and disadvantaged persons. Table K-6. FEDERAL O U T L A Y S FOR HEALTH TRAINING AND EDUCATION (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Degree or certificate training: Research training Physician training Dentist training Nurse training Other health professions training Paramedical training All other training Construction assistance 1972 estimate 143 156 43 77 103 36 444 111 Total 1,113 148 220 50 103 129 52 481 105 1,287 1973 estimate 154 307 79 98 144 51 542 84 1,458 The number of health professions and nursing students receiving loan and scholarship assistance is shown in table K-7. Loan assistance will increase from $51 million in 1972 to $57 million in 1973, whereas scholarship assistance will remain level at $35 million. This emphasis on loans reflects both the anticipated earning capacity of health professionals and the new authorities that allow the Federal Government to assume up to 85% of the indebtedness of health professionals who agree to serve in medically underserved areas. Under the new authorities, the Secretary of HEW will be able to affect the distribution of health manpower. Table K-7. HEALTH PROFESSIONS: NUMBER OF STUDENTS ASSISTED, BY DISCIPLINE (HEW ONLY) Discipline Academic year 1968-69 (actual) Scholarships Medicine and osteopathic medicine Dentistry Other 1 Nursing3 1 2 3 Total enrollment Academic year 1972-73 (estimate) Loans Scholarships Total enrollment 14,301 6,582 37,712 14,040 8,040 48,600 6,373 3,135 15,408 5,265 3,015 18,400 4,771 4,435 27,194 9,945 5,615 231,500 25,055 12,370 157,700 26,000 19,500 192,000 Includes optometry, pharmacy, podiatric medicine and veterinary medicine. For pharmacy includes only students in last 4 years for schools with 5 year programs. Includes post-registered nurse enrollment. As part of its responsibilities for the support of biomedical research, HEW also supports research training. In 1973, $165 million will be obligated to train biomedical researchers. In addition to programs for the training and education of health professionals, several Federal agencies conduct programs for the support of allied health personnel. HEW supports training and education activities in public health and allied health. The program level for SPECIAL ANALYSES 161 these activities will total $57 million in 1973, compared to $49 million in 1972. In 1973, 12 Federal agencies will fund programs to train research and health care personnel. VA, through its 170 hospitals, most of which are affiliated with medical schools, trains large numbers of health professionals. The Department of Labor, under the Manpower Development Training Act, supports the training of the greatest number of paramedical personnel of any Federal agency. Construction of health care facilities.—Federal health care facilities construction programs include the support of both community health care facilities to serve the general population and facilities operated by Federal agencies for special beneficiary groups. In 1973, Federal outlays for construction of health care facilities, including environmental health facilities, are estimated at $600 million. Outlays for health facility construction will decline slightly in 1973, showing the effect of the shift in financing from primarily grant-supported construction to guaranteed loans with interest subsidies. The Hill-Burton program in HEW—the largest Federal program supporting the construction of community health care facilities—has contributed to the construction or modernization of over 470,329 hospital and long-term care beds costing over $11.3 billion, of which $3.2 billion represents the Federal share. Hill-Burton assistance grants have virtually eliminated a national shortage of hospital beds. Hospital beds increased from 1,436,000 in 1946 to 1,616,000 in 1970, and one out of every five of these hospital beds is unoccupied. Beginning in 1972, Federal support for modernization and construction of hospitals and long-term care facilities has been available through Federal loan guarantees and interest subsidies. Increasingly hospitals and long-term care facilities are able to repay loans through reimbursement from patient charges and third party insurance payments, including Medicare and Medicaid. By the end of 1973, this program will guarantee and subsidize a cumulative total of $1.5 billion in loans. The critical area of need for construction today is outpatient and other ambulatory health care facilities (hospital outpatient departments, clinics, and community centers) which provide alternatives to costly hospital care. In 1973 the budget requests $85 million in grant funds—the full amount authorized by law for construction of these facilities. These Federal funds are expected to generate about $283 million worth of construction in approximately 243 ambulatory care projects. The proposed health maintenance organization (HMO) legislation will also provide direct loans to public and private nonprofit institutions for constructing ambulatory facilities. .Other Federal programs also assist in the construction of community health facilities. The Department of Housing and Urban Development provides mortgage insurance for construction of hospitals, nursing homes, and group practice facilities. The volume of mortgage insurance commitments in 1973 by HUD will total an estimated $562 million, an increase of $102 million over 1972, and will support http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 162 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 construction or modernization of 7,780 hospital beds and almost 21,920 proprietary and private nonprofit long-term care beds. The Federal Government will spend $291 million in 1973 for constructing or modernizing its own hospitals and other health facilities, primarily those operated by the VA, Defense, and HEW. These expenditures will be directed primarily to modernizing or replacing existing facilities rather than for adding to the total bed capacity. This construction will enable the facilities to increase their operating efficiency, adjust to the changing needs of beneficiaries, and adapt to improved medical technology. Table K-8. HOSPITAL AND HEALTH FACILITY CONSTRUCTION Outlays (in millions Number of beds (o.r projects)1 of dollars) 1971 Federally supported construction of hospitals and other facilities: Hospitals, new Hospitals, modernized and replaced Long-term care facilities Environmental health facilities Ambulatory care facilities Other Subtotal, federally supported Federal hospitals and health facilities: Hospitals, new Hospitals, modernized and replaced Long-term care facilities Environmental health facilities Ambulatory care facilities Other 1972 1973 87 89 70 9 87 26 47 98 37 12 133 24 38 89 39 12 111 20 368 349 309 35 90 1 38 7 9 1971 7,010 7,984 8,279 (426) 68 80 1,964 119 3 47 9 126 3 55 397 188 11 13 15 (10) Subtotal, Federal 180 256 291 Total, construction 548 605 600 1972 1973 4,842 4,390 8,470 6,738 3,844 3,084 (659) (704) 275 1,090 2,584 1,129 997 1,109 (30) (3) 1 Represents beds and projects which become available in each of the 3 years, irrespective of the year(s) of related outlays. Organization and delivery of health services.—Major Federal programs designed to improve the organization and delivery of health care include an assistance program for health maintenance organizations (HMO's), regional medical programs, assistance to comprehensive health planning agencies, and the activities of the National Center for Health Services Research and development. Activities of the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) are also directed to improving the organization and delivery of health care. Outlays for these programs will rise to $435 million in 1973 compared with $386 million in 1972. One of the most significant changes taking place in the organization of medical services is the growing development of health maintenance organizations. HMO's bring together a comprehensive range of medical services under one organization so that a patient is assured convenient access to all of them. HMO's provide needed services, including hospitalization, for a fixed annual fee which SPECIAL ANALYSES 163 is paid in advance by subscribers. Thus, net income rises with the number of days a subscriber is well and not the number of days he is in need of expensive physician or hospital care. HMO's therefore have a strong financial incentive to prevent illness, or at least treat it efficiently in its early stages. A study of the Federal employees health benefits program in 1968 indicated 560 days of hospitalization per 1,000 covered active employees enrolled under HMO-type plans compared to 1,085 and 1,080 per 1,000 active employees enrolled under Blue Cross or indemnity programs, respectively. Similarly, the incidence of surgical procedures was 34 per 1,000 persons under HMO plans compared to 75 per 1,000 enrolled under the Blue Cross and Blue Shield options. The Administration has proposed legislation to assist in establishing HMO's through technical assistance, planning grants and contracts, direct loans, and Joan guarantees. $57 million in budget authority for 1972 and $60 million in 1973 is being requested to assist over 600 HMO's to become organized. Other legislation will permit persons covered by Medicare, Medicaid, FHIP, and private insurance plans to join HMO's. Efforts will also be made in both 1972 and 1973 to convert federally funded health centers into HMO's. Emphasis on assisting comprehensive health planning agencies will be continued by increasing the number from 228 in 1972 to 348 in 1973 and expanding their capabilities and responsibilities. Legislation has been proposed to require approval by the responsible planning agency before certain capital expenditures can be reimbursed under Federal financing programs. The National Center for Health Services Research and Development and Regional Medical Programs (RMP) will support Federal efforts directed towards the application of the latest technological advances to both patient care and the design and management of medical facilities. The use of medical assistants which permit doctors to see a larger number of patients will be encouraged in these programs as well as in health manpower programs. In addition, RMP—working with the Office of Economic Opportunity—will support a new initiative aimed at developing emergency health care systems on an areawide basis. These systems will coordinate emergency room activities, ambulance services, and communications networks with the community's health care delivery system. Quality-of-care standards and peer review and utilization review techniques will continue to be supported and explored. Table K-9. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR IMPROVING THE ORGANIZATION AND DELIVERY OF HEALTH SERVICES (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Planning Technology Manpower utilization Health care systems Total 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 11 39 36 183 82 42 41 221 49 46 242 331 386 435 98 164 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 Americans who live in remote rural areas or in urban poverty neighborhoods represent a special problem because of the absence of adequate medical resources. Federal efforts will be continued to improve the availability of care in those areas. Health professionals will be encouraged to practice in medically underserved areas through loan forgiveness provisions of the new health manpower training legislation. Under those authorities, the Federal Government will assume the indebtedness incurred during education or training. Moreover, the National Health Service Corps will permit an estimated 600 health professionals to be placed in approximately 200 medically underserved areas. Area health education centers will be established in a number of these areas and will provide a permanent base for attracting health professionals. The Federal Government will continue its support of outpatient clinics in medically underserved areas through federally supported health centers. This support provides an effective means for impioving and expanding the capacity of the ambulatory health services delivery system to deliver care. Emphasis in 1973 will be placed on improving title management of existing centers, enhancing the quality of health care delivered in those centers, and assisting existing centers to convert to HMO's. FINANCING AND PROVIDING HOSPITAL AND MEDICAL SERVICES Programs to finance or provide hospital and medical services include Medicare and Medicaid as wrell as the contract care programs for certain Federal beneficiaries administered by the Defense Department, the Veterans Administration, and the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. In 1973, $19,928 million will be spent to pay for health services delivered to those individuals who are eligible for Federal support of their medical care needs. Outlays for Medicare and Medicaid will rise by $492 million and will comprise the largest share of the $15,798 million in Federal outlays directed towards the financing of health care services. Outlays for Federal programs that provide hospital care and medical services directly to Federal beneficiaries will only increase by $301 million to $4,130 million in 1973, reflecting a trend away from the direct provision of medical care to a greater reliance on financing mechanisms and use of community facilities. Two key elements in the National Health Strategy will affect the financing and provision of hospital care and medical services in the coming years. Legislation proposed by the Administration would eliminate financial barriers to basic health care protection. The National Health Insurance Standards Act (NHISA) would require employers to offer basic health insurance coverage for employees and their families. The cost of this plan would be borne jointly by employers and employees. For those needy families with children not protected under NHISA, the Family Health Insurance Plan (FHIP)—a fedeially administered program—would provide a basic level of protection. Under FHIP, premiums and copayments would be scaled to a family's income. These proposals will take effect in 1974 and do not affect the figures in this analysis. SPECIAL ANALYSES 165 Medicaid.—Until the Administration's proposed new family health insurance plan is enacted, Medicaid will continue to finance medical care for low income individuals. Approximately 24 million low income and medically needy people will receive benefits in 1973 through 52 separate federally aided, State-sponsored programs. The Federal share of Medicaid costs will be $3.4 billion, or 55% of the total. The bulk of the decrease in Federal outlays from 1972 is a result of an advance payment to the States in 1972 to alleviate their fiscal pressures. Some reduction is also due to the application of wage and price guidelines established by the Cost of Living Council. Partly because of the coverage expansion in State Medicaid programs, and partly because of recent Federal regulations requiring that early screening services be provided to low income children, it is now estimated that Medicaid will finance services to 11 million children under age 21 in 1973 compared to 6 million in 1969. The following table depicts Federal costs and other selected program indicators, for the period 1970-73: Payments to medical vendors (millions) Administrative costs (millions) „__ Percentage of payments to categorically needy Recipients of service (millions of persons) Aged 65 or over Blind and disabled Children under 21 Otheradults Payments by type of service (percent): General and TB hospitals Nursinghomes Physicians Mental hospitals Drugs Other 1970 actual 1971 estimate 1972 estimate 1973 estimate $2,604 $94 69 15 3.0 1.3 7.4 3.3 $3,210 $152 73 18.2 3.6 1.6 8.3 4.7 $4, 181 $220 74 20.6 3.8 1.8 9.4 5.6 $3,261 $171 73 23.5 4.0 2.1 10.8 6.6 32 26 12 8 8 14 32 25 12 9 8 14 35 23 13 7 8 14 35 21 14 7 8 15 In 1972, 65% of the Medicaid dollar was spent on inpatient care. In an effort to promote the use of less costly ambulatory and preventive care, legislation has been proposed to limit Federal matching for care provided in nursing homes and mental hospitals to that needed for active treatment and to institute cost sharing provisions for care provided in general hospitals. Higher Federal matching levels will be provided for all ambulatory care to encourage greater use of hospital outpatient clinics, comprehensive health centers and physicians' services. Medicare.—Over 95% of the Nation's aged population will be enrolled in Medicare in 1973, making them eligible to receive Federal reimbursements for 45% of their total personal health care costs. Outlays for the Medicare program will reach $10.4 billion in 1973, of which 67% will pay for inpatient services provided in hospital and extended care facilities through the hospital insurance program (HI) and 24% will pay for physicians' services, home health and outpatient services through the supplementary medical insurance program (SMI). 166 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 7 3 Legislation is being proposed to eliminate the enrollees' premium for the SMI program to make all Medicare beneficiaries eligible for reimbursement for outpatient services. Since Medicare began in 1967, hospital admissions per 1,000 beneficiaries have risen 17%, and Medicare payments for hospital stays have increased by 50%. A portion of this increase in outlays has been used to pay for hospital services previously provided on a charity basis. Before Medicare, approximately 17% of hospital stays among aged persons did not incur charges; since Medicare, this percentage has been reduced to 3%. Similarly, the proportion of total hospital charges paid directly by the patient have been reduced to 7% from 38% in 1966. Thus, the impact of Medicare has been to shift a large pait of the financial burden of medical payments for aged persons from the private sector to the public sector, as well as to contribute to higher utilization rates for hospital care by persons 65 or over. Medicare expenditures have risen significantly from $8.8 billion in 1969 to $10.4 billion in 1973. As the table below indicates, the rate of increase for both hospital insurance payments (HI) and supplemental medical insurance payments (SMI) has slowed down since 1969 due to major efforts to instill greater efficiency into the Medicare program, particularly through intensified review of utilization practices. Since 1969, the average length of covered hospital stay has been reduced by more than one day and expenditures for extended care facilities stays have declined due to the tightening of controls for unauthorized Medicare use. A change in the regulations for reimbursing physicians' services under SMI has occurred which permits carriers to recognize as of July 1 of a fiscal year, only those charges which fall within the 75th percentile of customary charges made for similar services during the previous calendar year. In 1973, additional efforts will be made to contain Medicare cost increases to a 9.5% growth in outlays for hospitalization costs and 2%% in physician fees. Without these efforts, estimated outlays would be significantly higher in 1972 and 1973. The following table displays the pattern of utilization and costs in the program: Hospital insurance payments: Hospital admissions (in thousands) Admissions per 1,000 covered aged Average length of stay (in days) Benefit payments (in millions) Supplementary medical insurance program: Persons with supplementary medical insurance protection (in millions) Beneficiaries receiving services (in millions). Benefit payments (in millions) Medical prices, percent increase from prior year (as of June in year shown): Hospital daily service charge Physicians'fees 1 1968 5,655 282 14.2 $3,736 1969 5,918 291 14.1 $4,654 1970 6,093 299 13.5 $4,804 1971 6,329 317 12.5 $5,443 1972 6,389 322 12.5 $6,265 1973 7,211 325 12.5 $7,395 18.2 7.7 $1,389 18.8 9.0 $1,645 19.2 9.2 $1,979 19.8 10.3 $2,035 20.1 10.9 $2,240 22.4 11.3 $2,486 12.2 5.5 13.0 7.3 12.1 7.6 13.0 6.8 ! 6.0 *2.5 *6.0 X 2.5 In accordance with Cost of Living Council guidelines. Other programs.—In addition to Medicaid and Medicare, the Federal Government finances or provides medical services for certain special categories of beneficiaries—such as Armed Forces personnel SPECIAL ANALYSES 167 and their dependents, veterans, American Indians, and poverty families. These programs include: • Medical care to active and retired military personnel and their dependents.—In 1973, Defense will operate 199 hospitals directly and will contract with community facilities to provide additional care for its beneficiaries. Outlays for these services will be $2,183 million in 1973, $145 million more than in 1972. • Medical care to veterans.—VA operates 170 hospitals, long-term care facilities and outpatient clinics and also provides contract care for certain veterans. Expenditures for health services to veterans are estimated to be $2,344 million in 1973, an increase of $243 million over the 1972 level. Outpatient visits in 1973 are expected to rise to over 11 million with an increase in the number of patients receiving hospital treatment to 844 thousand from 826 thousand in 1972. • Health insurance for Federal employees.—Health benefits are provided to almost 8.5 million Federal civilian employees and annuitants and their dependents under the Federal employees health benefits programs managed by the Civil Service Commission. In 1973, Federal payments to finance these programs will increase by $108 million to $642 million. • Indian health services.—Outlays for Indian health services and facilities will increase by 7% in 1973 to $196 million. These funds provide comprehensive health services and emphasize ambulatory care and the training of Indians for leadership roles. Indicators of improved health among Indians since 1969 include a 16% decline in infant mortality and a 60% reduction in deaths caused by tuberculosis. The emphasis on ambulatory care is shown by a 20% decline in the inpatient load of the Indian Health Service and a 28% increase in the number of outpatient visits since 1969. Table K-10. FEDERAL FINANCING OR PROVISION OF MEDICAL CARE 0Utlay Provision of direct Federal hospital and medical services: General hospital inpatients Psychiatric hospital inpatients Long-term care inpatients Outpatient and other services Total, direct services Provision of hospital and medical services indirect: General hospital inpatients Psychiatric hospital inpatients Long-term care inpatients Physician services—office, home or institution Outpatient and other services ;f (i dolTa i ls)° nS 1972 1973 1,788 452 103 995 2,127 455 112 1,135 2,255 1,943 1,943 1,912 491 170 156 159 129 36 38 39 1,256 72,618 76,411 76,749 3,339 3,829 4,130 6,901 232 1,219 8,293 259 1,485 9,085 153 1,256 2,564 1,667 2,936 2,084 3,193124,842 2, 111J 12,583 15,058 15,798 Total, provision of services 15,922 19,928 18,887 1971 » <in thousand,) 1971 Total, indirect services Numbc 2,103 226 894 1972 2,249 234 1,135 1973 2,272 155 949 29,862 34,461 168 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 • Federally sponsored health centers.—Medical services for lowincome families in federally funded health centers are provided through the maternal and child health program, the partnership for health program, and the OEO neighborhood health center program. Obligations for these centers will increase by $46 million in 1973 to support 685 community-based comprehensive health projects expected to serve a target population of approximately 10 million low-income individuals. Table K-11. FEDERALLY FUNDED HEALTH CENTERS 1970 actual Total Federal obligations (millions of dollars) Partnership for health Maternal and child health Community mental health centers (NIMH) OECM Number of centers funded Partnership for health Maternal and child health NIMH (operating grants) OEOi Number of persons in target areas served in year (thousands): Partnership for health 2 Maternal and child health 2 NIMH OEO 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 223.6 338.5 436.9 447.6 26.2 75.8 47.6 74.0 66.3 83.4 90.1 98.7 101.6 92.0 135.1 108.2 116.2 101.3 135.1 95.0 449 527 639 685 26 115 245 63 47 115 300 65 65 115 389 70 88 115 422 60 276 575 33,000 1,500 600 654 40,000 1,580 950 718 52,000 2,324 1,380 774 56,000 2,124 1 In addition to 49 neighborhood health centers (of which 25 were transferred to HEW in 1971 and 1972 and 10 more will be transferred in 1973), the OEO numbers include comprehensive health care projects in outpatient departments, group practice projects, and community network projects. 2 Represents numbers of persons actually served. Distribution of health care outlays by age groups and economic status.—Table K-12 distributes the Federal outlays for the "provision of hospital and medical services" category among three major age groups and between indigent and nonindigent persons. Outlays for the development of health resources and for prevention and control of health problems have been excluded from the table since they are designed to serve the entire Nation and are not normally allocable by population group or income. The largest health care expenditure increase in both absolute and percentage terms will be for other adults, rising by $581 million to $6 billion in 1973. This increase reflects the enactment of pending legislation extending the Medicare program to disabled social security beneficiaries. Approximately 45% of total health care expenditures will cover health care for the needy in 1973. The 1973 outlays for the needy remains at the 1972 level due to a 1973 advance Medicaid payment of approximately $340 million in June 1972 and does not represent an actual decreased level of activity. Aged.—Sixty percent of personal health care outlays will be on behalf of the aged. The $500 million increase for this age group in 1973 is almost entirely attributable to the Medicare and Medicaid programs. SPECIAL ANALYSES 169 In 1973, approximately 36% of Federal Medicaid payments will support medical services for the aged, although they comprise only 17% of the program's beneficiaries. Other adults.—In 1973, nonaged adults will receive $6.0 billion in health care services—$581 million over 1972 primarily due to pending Medicare legislation. Of the dollars spent on this group, 54% will go for the indigent. Children and youth.—Federal health outlays for children will amount to $2.1 billion in 1973. One-half of this amount will go for indigent children. Beginning in 1972, special efforts will be devoted to an early and periodic screening program for young Medicaid recipients. In summary, about 60% of the Federal expenditures for personal health care is on behalf of the aged, 30% for nonaged adults, and over 10% is for children. The latest Social Security Administration report concerning total public and private health outlays in 1970 indicates that the Federal Government pays about 54% of the total health costs for the aged, 11% of the total outlays for nonaged adults and about 16% of the total costs for children. Table K-12. ESTIMATED HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES BY POPULATION AND INCOME GROUPS1 (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Total, all recipients 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 15,912 18,876 19,915 Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youths (0-18) 9,585 4,655 1,672 11,272 5,461 2,142 11,772 6,042 2,100 Indigent, total 7,227 8,817 8,867 Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youths (0-18) 3,752 2,637 838 4,598 3,084 1,135 4,586 3,224 1,057 8,685 10,059 11,048 5,833 2,019 834 6,675 2,378 1,007 7,187 2,819 1,043 Nonindigent, total Aged (65 and over) Other adults (19-64) Children and youths (0-18) 1 Does not include foreign nationals receiving health care services outside the United States. PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HEALTH PROBLEMS Major Federal programs to prevent and control health problems are in the areas of consumer safety, communicable diseases, traffic accidents, occupational safety, environmental health, public health education, and foreign health assistance. This reflects the high priority accorded the prevention of illness and injuries. Outlays for these activities will increase to $1,124 million in 1973 from $856 million in 170 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 1972. In addition, physicians will be encouraged to provide preventive care through HMO's and a continuing emphasis will be placed on health research. Consumer safety.—A considerably expanded thrust to protect the health and safety of the consumer is reflected in the increase in outlays of $67 million in 1973 over 1972. Federal efforts in food and product safety show the greatest increases. Under pending legislation, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in HEW will be given an expanded role in consumer protection and redesignated the Consumer Safety Administration. FDA and the Department of Agriculture have the leading Federal roles in protecting the public from dangerous or mislabled foods, drugs, and other products. FDA food inspection activities will be expanded to insure the safety, nutritional adequacy, and accurate labeling of the Nation's food supply. The meat and poultry- inspection programs of the Department of Agriculture protect consumer health by assuring that all fresh and processed meat and poultry and their products that are shipped in interstate and foreign commerce are wholesome and suitable for human consumption. Research on the effects and hazards of pesticide residues and chemicals on crops and livestock foods will be increased. FDA will also expand its capability to collect, process, and analyze data in order to minimize hazards associated with toys, household chemicals, cosmetics, clothing, and other consumer products. Product safety inspections and consumer injury investigations will increase approximately 300% from 1972 to 1973. In addition, legislation will be proposed to strengthen the control over hazardous household products. To insure that drugs and therapeutic devices are safe and effective for their intended uses, FDA will continue inspecting drug manufacturing processes, examining over-the-counter and prescription drugs, and evaluating new drugs prior to marketing. Proposed legislation would strengthen FDA's ability to assure the safety and effectiveness of medical devices by providing authority for standard setting and premarketing clearance of devices when necessary. Disease control.—The Center for Disease Control (CDC) in HEW leads the Federal efforts to prevent and control disease. Disease surveillance conducted by CDC provides a national alarm system to identify outbreaks of disease. Followup support, such as vaccine and technical assistance, is provided to State and local health departments. Special efforts to eradicate rubella (German measles), to control venereal disease, and to alleviate nutritional problems will continue to be emphasized in 1973. Fifty-five million children age 1 through 14 will be inoculated against rubella. Technical assistance, drugs, personnel, and public education are furnished to States and localities in order to gain control over venereal diseases. Several Federal agencies provide technical assistance and public education to alleviate and prevent nutritional diseases. CDC conducts a comprehensive national program to improve and standardize the performance of the Nation's clinical laboratories. This program also has responsibility for the licensure and evaluation of clinical laboratories engaged in interstate commerce. SPECIAL ANALYSES 171 Accidents and occupational safety.—Accidents are the leading cause of death for persons between the ages of 1 and 37 and the fourth leading cause of death overall. In addition, accidents cause millions of disabling injuries each year. Federal programs to help prevent accidents will be expanded in 1973. Traffic accidents resulted in 50,000 deaths in 1970, half of which involved drivers or pedestrians under the influence of alcohol. Special emphasis has been placed on treating alcoholism as discussed in the section on special impact programs. Other highway safety programs support the removal of hazards; the installation of safer guard rails, light poles, etc.; and the use of new international signs. In addition, the Department of Transportation continues its regulatory efforts to require automakers to provide safer cars. The 1973 budget also requests increases under the Occupational Safety and Health Act to reduce the 14,000 deaths and more than 2 million disabling injuries resulting each year from occupational accidents and disease. Environmental control.—The Federal Government supports environmental health programs in HEW and in EPA. The programs in HEW consist mainly of grants and technical assistance to States and communities to reduce the prevalence of lead-based paint poisoning in children, to control rodents, and to develop environmental planning capabilities. In 1973, $9.5 million in grants will be awarded to about 50 communities to screen approximately 1.5 million children currently at risk of having or acquiring lead poisoning and to support the development of community organization and public education to prevent future lead poisoning. Under the Federal rodent control program, project grants in the amount of $15 million will be funded in 34 communities in 1973. EPA health programs provide health intelligence relative to the effects of environmental pollution on the health of the American people. This information and the information derived from research aid in setting environmental standards and taking regulatory actions. Environmental programs reported in this section are only those having a direct impact on health; all other environmental piograms are now discussed in the Environmental Special Analysis, Section S. Public health education.—Prevention and control of illnesses and injuries can be improved greatly through public health education. The proposed National Health Education Foundation will serve as a national instrument to stimulate and coordinate a comprehensive health education program. Other Federal public health education efforts will continue in such areas as nutrition, smoking, drug abuse, family planning, and automotive safety. These efforts will be conducted mainly through direct Federal service programs in the National Center for Family Planning Services, the Indian Health Service, and the Center for Disease Control in HEW, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Transportation. Foreign health assistance.—Efforts by the United States to prevent and control disease in other nations are undertaken by the Agency for International Development (AID), the Peace Corps, and 172 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 international agencies to which the U.S. contributes financially, such as the World Health Organization and the Pan American Health Organization. AID and the Peace Corps provide technical assistance to other nations through training and treatment in areas of communicable disease control and eradication, nutrition, public health education, family planning, and environmental health. Outlays by AID, the Peace Corps, and the State Department for these purposes will increase in 1973 to $233 million. Table K-13. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HEALTH PROBLEMS (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Disease prevention and control Environmental control Consumer safety _ Total 1972 estimate 399 92 207 496 106 254 698 856 1973 estimate 642 161 321 1,124 SPECIAL IMPACT PROGRAMS Special impact programs are Federal programs which have been designed and targeted to health problems that are sufficiently unique to warrant a categorical assistance. These programs include drugabuse activities, alcoholism projects, the provision of family planning services, and nursing home improvement efforts. Drug abuse.—In response to the growing national drug problem and the need to coordinate Federal drug abuse-related programs, the President established the Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention within the Executive Office of the President. This Office will direct the Federal efforts in treatment, rehabilitation, education, and research relating to controlling the demand for drugs. Obligations for these activities rose from $132 million in 1971 to $310 million in 1972. This effort will continue in 1973 with a further increase in obligations of $55 million. These obligations are in addition to law enforcement activities which are discussed in Special Analysis O and amount to $229 million in 1973. HEW, through NIMH, funds major drug abuse treatment, rehabilitation and research programs, and the National Clearinghouse for Drug Abuse Information within NIMH will expand its efforts to disseminate current data and information. The Office of Education in HEW has the major role in drug abuse education and training. Defense and VA will intensify efforts to control the drug problem among our military personnel in Southeast Asia and our returning veterans. Six other Federal agencies also fund programs to combat the effects of drug abuse. These include the OEO's support of treatment, rehabilitation, and education programs for the poor and the Department of Labor's rehabilitation activities. Within the Department of Justice, SPECIAL ANALYSES 173 the Bureau of Prisons administers treatment programs for Federal prisoners, the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs conducts training and research programs, and the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration supports a broad range of community drag abuse programs. Table K-14. ESTIMATED OBLIGATIONS FOR DRUG ABUSE PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 1969 Treatment and rehabilitation: Health, Education, and Welfare Defense Justice Veterans Administration.._ Office of Economic Opportunity Housing and Urban Development Other 1971 22.9 1972 1973 .9 .6 2.2 1.4 40.7 .4 18.9 .7 12.1 6.0 83.6 48.2 19.1 16.4 13.0 9.3 97.4 62.6 18.3 21.6 20.0 9.3 1.0 28.0 78.8 189.6 230.2 1.4 .6 12.7 20.9 .2 2.3 .7 31.2 18.4 8.8 3.1 2.5 .4 32.7 13.1 12.4 4.3 1.0 .9 2.0 36.8 64.4 64.4 14.1 1.1 11.3 .5 3.3 1.0 .3 .5 34.6 9.5 4.4 1.3 2.5 3.0 .8 37.8 14.6 5.1 2.8 2.0 6.9 1.4 Subtotal 15.5 16.6 56.1 70.6 Total 45.5 132.2 310.1 365.2 _ _ ___ Subtotal Education and training: Health, Education, and Welfare Justice Defense Housing and Urban Development Office of Economic Opportunity Other Subtotal ____ L Research, planning, and coordination: Health, Education, and Welfare Defense Justice Veterans Administration Office of Economic Opportunity Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention Other _. Alcoholism.—Alcohol abuse and alcoholism are national problems that touch every community and State. In 1972 the Federal Government began to shift the responsibility for determining project priorities to the States through formula grants. NIMH will continue to support its ongoing alcoholism treatment projects to develop model programs from which States will be able to pattern their programs. In addition, in 1973 NIMH will support about 70 projects transferred to it from OEO with an increase of $10 million in budget authority for this purpose. Other Federal programs involved in the effort to reduce alcoholism and its effects are administered by VA, which will spend $15 million to treat alcoholism in veterans; the Social and Rehabilitation Service of HEW which will earmark $32 million for alcoholic rehabilitation; and the Department of Transportation will fund $32 million in projects aimed at reducing the incidence of drunken driving and the associated high percent of accidents involving the use of alcohol. 174 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table K-15. ESTIMATED OBLIGATIONS FOR ALCOHOLISM (dollars in millions) 1969 Treatment and rehabilitation: Health, Education, and Welfare: National Institute of Mental Health Social and Rehabilitation Service Veterans Administration Office of Economic Opportunity Subtotal Education and training: Health, Education, and Welfare Research: Health, Education, and Welfare Transportation Subtotal Total 1971 1972 1973 68.3 37.4 12.5 2.0 78.2 31.7 14.5 __ 8.3 26.7 8.1 11.0 14. 1 54.1 120.2 124.4 7 1.8 4.8 4.8 6. 2 6.6 7.4 8.4 29.4 8.9 31.7 6.2 14.0 37.8 40.6 21.0 69.9 162.8 169.8 14.1 _ PROGRAMS Family planning.—Federal support of family planning services and research will continue in 1973 with Federal obligations increasing to $240 million, a threefold increase since 1969. Of this amount, $183 million will support family planning services to approximately 3.5 million low-income people. Family planning services are funded primarily through the National Center for Family Planning Services and the maternal and child health program in HEW and OEO. Efforts will be concentrated on providing services to hard-to-reach groups such as teenagers, rural dwellers, and migrants, as well as to insuring that family planning services are included as a basic part of comprehensive health service programs. The National Center will also spend $3 million to train about 2,200 paramedical personnel in the most appropriate techniques to deliver family planning services to low-income women and to train administrative personnel to improve the management and program development of federally sponsored family planning projects. Family planning research activities are supported by NIH and AID. Obligations directed primarily towards the development of new contraceptives which are effective, safe, and socially acceptable will rise from $52 million in 1972 to $58 million in 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 175 Table K-16. ESTIMATED OBLIGATIONS FOR FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES AND RESEARCH (dollars in millions) 1971 actual Research (total) National Institutes of Health Agency for International Development Services to low-income persons in the United States (total) _ Health, Education, and Welfare (total) National Center for Family Planning Services Maternal and child health Other HEW Office of Economic Opportunity Number of individuals served (millions of persons) 1972 estimate 1973 estimate $40.3 $51.3 $57.8 $28.3 $12.0 $39.3 $12.0 $44.8 $13.0 $80.3 $147.7 $182.6 $57.1 $123.7 $167.6 $33.6 $17.0 $6.5 $23.2 $98.9 $17.0 $8.7 $24.0 $140.0 $17.0 $10.6 $15.0 2.2 3.1 3.5 Nursing home improvement.—The administration has initiated a major effort within HEW to improve standards in the Nation's nursing homes to assure that facilities receiving Federal funds are in compliance with Federal and State regulations. Legislation has been proposed that would authorize Medicaid to pay 100% of the State costs of inspecting nursing homes. In 1970, 900,000 Medicaid or Medicare recipients were served by 7,000 skilled nursing homes or extended care facilities. Outlays of $6.8 million in 1972 will be increased to $11.6 million in 1973. As part of this effort, HEW will train 2,000 State personnel to inspect nursing homes in 1972 and 1973—almost a tenfold expansion of the 1971 training program. Approximately 21,000 nursing home employees will also participate in 1-week courses designed to improve the quality of service they deliver to nursing home patients. In addition, a new program of five demonstration "ombudsman" units aimed at identifying and solving patients' complaints and problems will be established. EXPENDITURES FOR HEALTH ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY The following tables distribute the health-related expenditures of Federal agencies by the categories used in this analysis. Except for HEW and parts of the Civil Service Commission, health-related outlays of all other agencies are, because of their major purpose, assigned to functions other than health (650) in part 4 of the Budget document. The tables, therefore, indicate the predominant budget functional code for each agency. Other special analyses such as those on research and development, education, and manpower also include all Federal outlays in their areas. They will thus include, where pertinent, the same outlays that are tabulated in this analysis. TableK-17. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1971 (in millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Health Services and Mental Health Administration, National Institutes of Health Food and Drug Administration Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service Other Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Environmental Protection Agency Agency for International Development Office of Economic Opportunity _.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atomic Energy Commission Civil Service Commission Department of Labor Department of State National Science Foundation Other agencies Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1971. *Less than $100,000. Health research Training Organizaand Construe- tion and education tion delivery 650 650 650 650 650 650/700 ,115.7 151.8 942.2 21.8 713.3 175.5 527.6 1.1 051 804 551 350 404 152 551 250 058 906 607/609 150 606 90.4 67.9 1.3 7.8 134.1 106.8 44.2 9.8 7.2 7.0 11.6 73.3 101.1 .3 335.8 323.6 9.3 2.5 Direct Federal hospital and medical 178.3 11,569.6 178.0 321.8 181.9 .3 2.6 7.7 70.4 .1 .5 37.3 7.8 291.4 3,338.6 12,583.3 698.3 20,177.8 1,466.1 15.8 35.8 1,656.9 7,875.1 3,362.3 10.4 350.5 111.3 .2 .5 Total 5.2 .4 74.1 7.9 Prevention and control of health problems 322.7 14,490.2 258.0 1,633.5 4.2 1,513.1 85.9 60.5 7,875.1 3,364.0 18.6 5.9 2,121.1 2,034.8 44.4 219.8 175.6 20.9 4.1 147.2 120.4 187.2 73.5 117.2 15.7 70.7 137.1 7.8 34.5 21.3 33.5 154.3 24.7 291.4 254.7 224.9 29.8 .4 76.2 8.7 Indirect Federal hospital and medical services 30.1 24.7 126.4 4.9 3.4 5.3 45.4 9.2 1,564.6 1,113.3 548.3 331.3 Table K-18. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1972 (in millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Health Services and Mental Health Administration Nationallnstitutesof Health Food and Drug Administration Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service Other Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Environmental Protection Agency Agency for International Development Office of Economic Opportunity National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atomic Energy Commission Civil Service Commission Department of Labor Department of State National Spience Foundation __._ Other agencies._ Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1972 Health research Training and Construeeducation tion 650 650 650 650 650 650/700 1,258.6 159.5 1,065.6 33.5 855.3 197.9 643.2 2.6 051 804 551 350 404 152 551 250 058 906 607/609 150 606 98.3 77.7 2.1 9.5 142.8 123.4 46.9 15.8 6.4 68.6 104.5 342.2 318.6 8.6 6.0 269.2 238.1 31.1 9.0 88.5 99.7 9.3 _ 5.6 15.7 ___ Direct Federal hospital and medical services Indirect Federal hospital and medical services Prevention and control of health problems 187.3 13,811.7 186.9 425.9 ._ 381.1 300.0 8.5 72.6 .4 17.0 51.8 __ 1,635.3 1,965.3 8,974.1 4,400.9 10.8 403.0 136.0 6.7 195.4 5.5 152.8 7.9 15.4 161.4 .4 10.7 9.2 109.6 .1 .6 12.2 40.8 11.3 424.6 385.9 3,828.9 15,058.2 .2 31.0 46.8 .5 _ 127.1 5.2 3.8 7.5 .2 ___ 57.4 1,754.8 1,286.9 605.4 .4 Organization and delivery 22.2 _._ 17.5 22.5 52.6 Total 17,105.4 1,826.8 1,757.1 114.7 8,974.1 4,403.5 29.3 2,374.6 2,419.1 61.1 242.3 26.8 182.8 176.9 68.7 127.2 110.0 155.7 37.9 34.8 228.6 424.6 856.3 23,776.5 Table K-19. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR MEDICAL AND HEALTH-RELATED ACTIVITIES BY AGENCY, 1973 (in millions of dollars) Functional code Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Health Services and Mental Health Administration. National Institutes of Health Food and Drug Administration Social Security Administration Social and Rehabilitation Service Other Department of Defense Veterans Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Environmental Protection Agency Agency for International Development Office of Economic Opportunity National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atomic Energy Commission Civil Service Commission Department of Labor Department of State National Science Foundation Other agencies. Agency contributions to employee health funds Total outlays for health, 1973Less than $100,000. Health research Training Organizaand Construe- tion and education tion delivery 650 650 650 1,468.7 184.3 1,239.9 979.6 206.2 758.7 307.0 282.3 8.7 650 650 650/700 44.5 3.2 3.0 051 804 551 350 404 152 551 250 058 906 607/609 150 606 1.9 9.7 111.1 81.9 145.7 153.2 47.3 15.5 8.0 5.8 12.4 297.9 262.2 35.6 Direct Federal hospital and medical 92.5 9.2 8.9 18.9 61.0 Prevention and control of health problems Total 198.8 14,381.8 198.3 492.3 591.4 18,225.2 455.7 2,081.3 10.9 2,053.7 179.7 124.8 10,436.4 3,441.5 11.6 471.9 165.7 10,436.4 .5 13.0 134.0 Indirect Federal hospital and medical 1,710.6 2,178.6 22.5 7.1 3,443.9 34.3 2,580.5 2,690.8 70.2 209.4 256.8 5.6 149.8 26.9 179.0 144.1 121.6 57.8 26.5 57.8 139.8 112.9 .4 .7 .2 11.1 .1 .7 30.4 47.5 141.6 6.2 4.6 8.7 48.3 19.6 42.1 13.7 504.7 64.5 35.0 244.4 504.7 1,981.7 1,458.3 600.1 434.9 4,130.3 15,797.7 1,124.0 25,527.1 .4 3.6 138.0 137.6 46.8 22.9 192.8 41.2 SPECIAL ANALYSIS L FEDERAL INCOME SECURITY PROGRAMS Federal income security programs will exceed $100 billion in 1973. These programs provide benefits for 50 to 60 million Americans to replace income lost due to retirement, disability, illness, unemployment, poverty, or death of a family's chief wage earner. This year marks the first time that the value of preferential tax treatment for various groups will be included in this analysis, wherever the Federal revenues foregone constitute an important direct income supplement to the individual benefited. These benefits total $6.6 billion in what might be termed "tax transfers/' since these tax revenues foregone represent a transfer of purchasing power to the beneficiaries. Cash benefit outlays continue to dominate total income security benefits accounting for 74% of the benefits. Benefits provided in-kind (such as medical care and services, food stamps, and public housing) account for another one-fifth. The new category of tax transfers constitutes only 7% of the total, but provides important income supplementation to the Nation's 21 million elderly. Sustained reform is the distinguishing attribute of the Nation's income security programs in recent years. Proposed program reforms will provide more equitable treatment of recipients and strengthen incentives for individuals and families to become more self-supporting, consonant with the administration's income strategy. OVERVIEW: 1973 Total Federal income security benefits will reach an estimated $101.9 billion in 1973, and roughly 8% of the gross national product (GNP). Budget outlays for cash or in-kind programs will constitute nearly 40% of the Federal budget in 1973. Income security outlays will increase roughly $10 billion between 1972 and 1973—accounting for almost 90% of the total growth in the Federal budget. Cash benefits are estimated at $75.1 billion for 1973, up $7 billion over 1972 and $15 billion over 1971. Social security (OASDI) benefit outlays in 1973 will be 14% above their 1972 levels, and constitute almost three-fifths of total cash benefits in 1973. In-kind benefits continue to rise rapidly, and reach the $20 billion level in 1973—mostly in health benefits. In addition to benefit outlays in the form of cash or services, there is a third type of income security benefit provided by the Federal Government, the "tax transfers" included in this analysis for the first time this year. Specific provisions of the personal income tax law reduce tax liabilities for particular groups of persons. These constitute Federal outlays just as fully as if the taxes had been collected, and a check then sent to the beneficiaries of these tax transfers. Most of these benefits accrue to the elderly, and constitute a $4.3 billion income supplement to the Nation's senior citizens. 179 180 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table L-1. FEDERAL INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS 1971 actual 1972 estimate Federal outlays for cash benefits (millions): Social security (OASDI) Federal employee benefits _. Veterans benefits Public assistance Unemployment insurance Railroad retirement Other programs Proposed legislation included above $34,482 7,097 5,792 5,109 5,340 1,889 403 $38,502 $43,834 8,041 9,510 6,194 6,569 6,306 6,961 6,044 5,458 2,084 2,069 684 706 (25) (4,045) Subtotal, outlays, cash benefits 60,112 67,855 75,106 Federal outlays for in-kind benefits (millions): Food and nutrition Healthcare Housing........ Proposed legislation included above 2,840 10,888 733 3,681 12,651 1,248 3,931 14,480 1,763 (476) Subtotal, outlays, in-kind benefits 14,461 17,580 20,175 3,210 650 75 1,150 3,925 690 95 1,295 (350) 4,335 790 250 1,250 (605) 5,085 6,005 6,625 Tax transfers (millions): Benefits to the aged Benefits to veterans Benefits to welfare recipients and working mothers Benefits to disabled and unemployed Proposed legislation included above Subtotal, tax transfers Total benefits 79,658 Federal outlays for administration 2,265 1973 estimate 91,441 101,906 2,607 2,865 INCOME STRATEGY The administration has adopted an income strategy in reforming income security programs, seeking to increase the effectiveness of these programs in meeting national goals. The income strategy embodies four basic principles: —Equity.—Benefits should be distributed in a consistent manner among beneficiaries with similar circumstances. For example, programs paying benefits based on need should consider all resources in determining benefits. —Adequacy.—Benefits should bear a reasonable relationship to need, and be adjusted periodically to maintain that adequacy. Examples include recent amendments to the food stamp program providing allotments large enough to purchase a nutritionally adequate diet, and the proposed national standards under welfare reform. —Graduated benefits.—Disproportionate drops in benefits as income rises should be avoided as a disincentive to increased earnings (where that possibility exists). As a general rule, where benefits are related to income, that relationship should resemble a straight line rather than a series of steps which7 produce work disincentives. Veterans pensions and dependents compensation have been reformed recently to scale benefits more directly with income. SPECIAL ANALYSES 181 —Sel)^regulation.—The lag of program benefits behind changed circumstances can cause serious hardship. An effort is being made to make programs more self-adjusting with changes in basic conditions. Examples include: • Food stamps (enacted) and social security (proposed), where benefits would be adjusted automatically for changes in the cost of living. (Financing would also be automatic under social security.) • Unemployment insurance, where extended benefits will be automatically triggered by changed economic circumstances. Where self-support is possible in part now, or in the future, income security programs provide present support, or supplementary support. At the same time other efforts are made to remedy the cause of the temporary or longer term poverty. Income security programs must provide encouragement to sustain personal dignity and independence. Where self-support is not possible, income security programs provide the wherewithal to live decently. Where the transfers in the former category should be on a fairly temporary basis, the groups aided here may have to receive more or less permanent program benefits. PROGRAM THEMES The most sweeping applications of these principles involve programs for the aging, the poor (welfare reform and food stamps), the unemployed, those serving in the military, and veterans who have served in the past. THE ELDERLY: SOCIAL SECURITY Special programs for the aging received strong impetus from commitments made to the elderly at the White House Conference on Aging held in November 1971. Income security programs covered in this analysis meet resource needs of the elderly through income transfers and the provision of food, housing, and medical services. The financial problems of the elderly are marked. Nearly onequarter of those 65 and over are low-income persons. Many others face the same fear as fixed incomes become progressively inadequate with the passage of time. Several actions to ease the financial burden of the elderly have already been taken. Social security benefits will have been increased by one-third between 1969 and mid-1972 (taking into account the 5% benefit increase proposed in H.R. 1). Coupled with greater income assistance to the elderly poor, the following proposed social security improvements will add a total of $5Y2 billion to the incomes of the elderly: —Automatic benefit increases to keep pace with the cost of living (the consumer price index); —Benefits rising 5% across the board, effective July 1, 1972; —Financing of benefits with automatic changes in the "wage base" (raising the maximum earnings subject to the social security payroll tax in step with increased earnings in the economy); —Liberalized earnings or retirement test (the amount of permissible income before benefits are reduced) which permits up to $2,000 of earnings with no benefit loss and provides a 50% offset from that point without limit; 182 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 —Increased widow's benefits equal to the full amount of her deceased husband's entitlement. When enacted, these improvements will make major strides toward overcoming poverty for Older Americans. THE NEEDY: WELFARE REFORM The present welfare system has failed. It is too far gone for piecemeal improvement. Nothing short of sweeping change can make income assistance for the needy effective, humane, and worthy of taxpayer support. The present system is not a system at all; it is a congeries of 1,152 localized approaches to a national problem. Aside from lacking national standards for payments, eligibility, and enforcement, it suffers other serious deficiencies. Most importantly, it lacks incentives for self-support. Conversely, it often creates a greater sense of dependency. The rapid increase in welfare recipients compounds the problems of existing welfare programs. Costs have doubled in 5 years, and threaten serious financial problems for many State treasuries. Welfare reform is focused on the basic problems of present welfare programs. It will: —Provide national eligibility standards—covering for the first time, all families with earners who work full time but who do not earn enough to support their families; —Establish minimum benefit standards (at $2,400 for a family of four with no income and $195 per month for an aged, blind, or disabled couple); —Establish strong work incentives and requirements to: • register all able-bodied adults (except mothers with preschool children) for suitable work and training; • reduce benefit payments by $800 for each adult family member who refuses suitable work or training, and cutting State supplementary payments by a proportionate amount; • exempt the first $720 of earnings in computing benefits— smoothing the transition from welfare to work; and • improve incentives to earn by reducing benefits by 67% for earnings over $720 per year instead of 100%. —Establish a national administration for welfare that assures equitable treatment and permits a cross-check on earnings and other resources; —Offer increased opportunities and funds for training, public employment and child care to enable the many recipients who desire work—but lack the requisite skills or adequate care for their children—to achieve their goal of self-support; and —Provide substantial fiscal relief to States. Pa3onents will not begin until 1974. The 1973 budget provides $450 million for a Government-wide allowance for planning for welfare reform. At the time of enactment, whatever resources for planning and administration are required will be provided. Considerable efforts have been made for the successful implementation of this program, and to lay the sound administrative foundation to insure effective operation in the ensuing years. SPECIAL ANALYSES 183 THE NEEDY: FOOD AND NUTRITION The administration has fostered substantial growth in programs to attack the causes of hunger in America. The expansion in the food stamp program has been tenfold in 4 years—from $229 million in 1969 to $2,239 million estimated for 1973. Some 14.5 million persons now receive assistance, double the number in July 1969, taking the Federal family food programs together. Child nutrition programs have also grown rapidly. Children receiving free or reduced-price school lunches in 1973 will total 8.4 million—over 2 ^ times the number 3 years ago. In addition, the administration has supported reforms to improve overall program effectiveness. Amendments to the Food Stamp Act, supported by the administration, were enacted early in 1971. These amendments, currently being implemented in most States will: —Provide an allotment sufficient to purchase a nutritionally adequate diet at a cost no greater than 30% of income for any household; —Introduce standard eligibility requirements throughout the Nation. Income eligibility standards will be increased in all States but one for a four-person family, increasing participation substantially; —Provide increased bonuses for the poorer recipients, including free stamps for the poorest; —Permit recipients to purchase a fraction of the total allotment; —Tailor benefits more closely to income; and —Require all employable recipients to accept suitable jobs or job training if these are available. THE UNEMPLOYED The Employment Security Amendments of 1970 provide for a national program of extended benefits. Beginning January 1972, workers who have exhausted their regular benefits will receive up to 13 weeks of extended benefits until the national insured unemployment rate has dropped below 4.5% for 3 consecutive months. States have had the option of providing 13 weeks of extended benefits prior to January 1972, and 22 States have done so. The 1970 amendments also extended unemployment insurance coverage to nearly 9 million additional workers, bringing the total number covered by Federal and State laws to more than 62 million. In December 1971, the Congress enacted a 6-month program to provide temporary benefits of a further 13 weeks to unemployed workers in States where the insured unemployment rate equals or exceeds 6.5%. An estimated 700,000 workers in 12 States will benefit from this program. MILITARY RETIREMENT AND VETERANS BENEFITS Military retirement.—Administration proposals on the uniformed services retirement and survivor benefit programs will soon be before 184 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 the Congress, developed from recommendations of an interagency committee appointed at the direction of the President. These proposals are aimed at: • Improving the Government's ability to attract and retain the kinds and numbers of qualified members of the uniformed services required; and • Providing an acceptable level of economic protection for personnel and their families at the time of separation, in retirement, or when death occurs on active duty or in retirement. The military retirement system remains a noncontributory retirement benefit. Changes would: —Revise the nondisability retirement program by weighting benefits more for older retirees with longer service, and providing reduced annuities for younger retirees until they reach conventional retirement age—with a deferred annuity or lump-sum payment for those who separate with more than 10 but less than 20 years' service; —Revise the reserve retirement system by providing for full annuities at ages 60 and 55, depending on years of service, and an optional actuarially reduced annuity beginning at age 50; —Replace the present retired serviceman's family protection plan with a plan similar in many respects to the benefits of the plan for survivors of civil service retirees; and —Provide a one-time adjustment of retired pay for all members of the retired population to the level of retired pay based on January 1, 1971, pay scales as they reach conventional retirement age. The benefits of the present system were automatically increased with the cost of living by 4.5% on June 1, 1971. Veterans pension.—Pension benefits are payable, on a needs basis, to wartime veterans and dependents of deceased veterans for non-service-connected disability and death. Legislation in 1970 increased pensions effective January 1, 1971, by an average of 9.6%, with slightly higher rates for veterans at the upper end of the income scale. Recent legislation has revamped the veterans pension system. As a result of the reform, benefits will rise by an average of 6.5% effective January 1, 1972. The changes are based on principles of the income strategy, and constitute an important forward step: —Formula in place of steps.—The new formula strengthens the principle that the size of a person's benefits should vary with the amount of his income, eliminating the more than 20 income categories that existed previously. Under the old step system, a person's benefits fell abruptly whenever his income moved across the $100 line which separated one income category from another, so that a small increase in outside income could actually bring about a lower overall income. The new formula fine tunes benefit amounts to an individual's income position, changing benefits by a few cents whenever income changes by one dollar. The danger of abrupt declines in pensions will thus be eliminated. —Greatest help to low-income recipients.—The new formula scales benefits progressively, so that those with lowest incomes will receive the most help. Under the new pension formula, for example, a single veteran whose outside income is above $2,200 will SPECIAL ANALYSE® 185 lose 84 cents in pension for every dollar of additional outside income. But if a veteran's income is below $1,000, his reduction rate will be only 36 cents in pension per dollar of additional outside income. Veteran's compensation.—Monthly compensation is provided for veterans who have incurred or aggravated a disability as a result of military service. The relationship of the amount of compensation to the disability and the impairment of earning capacity is under intensive review. Compensation benefits were amended in 1970 to provide increases in rates of disability compensation ranging from 8% to 12%, effective August 1970. The administration is proposing legislation to raise compensation levels in 1972 to reflect increases in the cost of living since benefit rates were last adjusted. Recently enacted legislation will increase and restructure monthly compensation benefits for some 290,500 widows, children, and dependent parents of veterans who have died as a result of service-incurred disabilities. The increase will range from 5% to 10%, depending primarily on the effective date of the previous benefit increase. OTHER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENTS A number of improvements were made in other income security programs in calendar year 1971. Work incentive program (WIN).—The WIN amendments signed into law in December 1971, parallel the workfare recommendations of welfare reform, but stop short of full welfare reform. Under these amendments, all able-bodied welfare recipients will be required to register for jobs or job training—excepting the aged, children under 16 or attending school, those who are caring for ill or incapacitated persons, and mothers of small children. The Federal Government will also assume 90% of the cost of manpower, child care, and supportive services. At least one-third of WIN expenditures must be used for on-the-job training and public service employment—reflecting a clear preference for real jobs, as opposed to long-term classroom training. (See Special Analysis J for further details on Federal manpower programs.) Housing.—In-kind benefits to enable lower income families and elderly individuals to obtain adequate housing are provided under the five major Federal housing assistance programs. Through 1972, over $2.5 billion authority has been approved to enter into long-term subsidy contracts under the four major assistance programs in the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This level will provide assistance to over 2.3 million housing units. In 1973, $566 million additional authority will be committed to assist over 500,000 additional housing units under these programs. Federal housing payments generally begin when the housing unit is occupied and are estimated at nearly $1.8 billion in 1973, a $515 million increase over 1972. Over 50% of the families receiving housing assistance are recipients of other 186 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 forms of income assistance for low-income families. The elderly families also participate fully in these housing programs, representing nearly one-third of all housing units presently occupied. Assistance for the elderly will increase in 1973, under the rental housing assistance programs and through increased emphasis on congregate housing which was authorized by the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1970. The fifth major housing program is administered by the Farmers Home Administration in the Department of Agriculture and serves lower income families in rural areas. In 1973, commitments will be made to assist 142,000 additional housing units, a 28,000 increase over 1972. An estimated 470,000 housing units will have been committed from 1969 through 1973 under the direct and insured rural loan programs. (See Special Analysis M for further details on Federal housing programs.) Medical benefits.—Proposed legislation on the in-kind health benefit programs, Medicare and Medicaid, would curtail overutilization of hospital and other institutional services. The proposals would provide increased program control of Medicare, and increased emphasis in Medicaid on preventive medical care. Recent regulations require early screening services to children through Medicaid, and proposals include higher Federal matching for ambulatory care as an encouragement of hospital outpatient clinics, comprehensive health centers, and 7physicians7 services. Medicare regulations for reimbursing physicians services have been tightened to permit carriers to recognize only those changes which fall within the 75th percentile of customary charges made for similar services during the 6 months. The premium requirement for supplementary medical insurance is proposed to be lifted from the elderly beneficiaries and financed through other revenue. (See Special Analysis K for further details on Federal health programs.) Railroad retirement benefits.—The system is now faced with a beneficiary roll significantly larger than the work force that must finance benefits. The contribution base for the railroad retirement system continues to decline as the work force in this industry declines. The Commission on Railroad Retirement was created on August 12, 1970, to make a study of the railroad retirement system and to recommend ways to provide benefits on an actuarially sound basis. A central feature of the Commission's work is the development of more accurate projections of benefits and taxes under the railroad retirement system taking into account the future development of the industry, changes in social security benefits, and future trends in wages and prices. A final report is expected June 30, 1972. Civil service retirement.—These benefits were automatically increased with the cost of living by 4.5% on June 1, 1971. SPECIAL ANALYSES 187 INCOME STRATEGY AND TARGET GROUPS The analytical structure applied to income security expenditures is particularly important in the context of an income strategy. The analysis below is organized by target group; that is, people who share similar problems and circumstances—the aged, the disabled, the unemployed, mothers with small children and no breadwinner, and those low-income persons who cannot earn quite enough to live decently through their own efforts alone. Within each target group, members have a similarity of problems and of needs. The piecemeal development of income security programs, however, means that persons with similar restrictions on their capacity for self-support: • face a range of eligibility requirements or tests for different programs which meet the needs of similar circumstances; • may fall between restricted or selective programs covering similar groups; • may receive benefits inadequately related to need, due to overlapping programs; • may face disproportionate drops in benefits as income rises or as other program benefits rise. The analytical categories used in this analysis include: (1) annuitants; (2) other aged beneficiaries; (3) the disabled; (4) mothers with dependent children; and (5) unemployed workers and low-income groups. The two categories of aged, annuitants, and other aged beneficiaries, account for more than half of income security benefit outlays, with annuitants receiving 25% of total income security benefits, and other aged, an additional 34%. The disabled ($14.9 billion), mothers and children ($7.8 billion), and unemployed and other low-income ($13.4 billion) are the remaining target groups. The relative increases from 1971 to 1973 in benefits to the various categories are not widely spread, ranging from 24% to 34%. Table L-2. INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS BY TARGET GROUP Benefits (millions) 1971 actual Annuitants Other aged Disabled Mothers and children Unemployed or low income Other Total 1972 1973 estimate estimate $20,517 $23,109 $25,887 26,727 30,479 34,166 11,242 12,873 14,914 6,079 6,852 7,779 10,794 13,093 13,385 4,299 5,035 5,775 79,658 Perof In total 1971-73 1973 Percent 1971-73 25.4 33.5 14.6 7.6 13.1 5.7 $5,370 7,439 3,672 1,700 2,591 1,476 26.2 27.8 32.7 28.0 24.0 34.3 91,441 101,906 100.0 22,248 27.9 THE AGED The most striking fact about the aging process is the severance of the head of the household from full-time gainful employment and the consequent need for income maintenance programs. An income approach protects the dignity of the elderly by enabling them to buy what they need for themselves. 188 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 The aged suffer from poverty to a considerably greater extent than the general population. The aged poor are comprised of those who were impoverished by shifting from work income to retirement, those who were needy before they became aged, and women who depended on their husband's incomes as the main source of support. Even if wage-replacement programs were improved so that no person who was not needy before retirement would be impoverished by retiring, there would still be almost 31/2 million aged individuals living below low-income thresholds. Table L-3. INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS FOR THE AGED Benefits (millions) 1971 actual Covered employment: Social security (OASI) members Railroad employees Federal civilian employees Uniformed services members Coal miners'widows Public assistance including refugees and Indians Income-tested veterans pension Subtotal, cash benefit outlays Medicare Medicaid Other in-kind Subtotal, in-kind benefit outlays Tax transfers Total 1972 estimate 1973 estimate $27,119 $30,247 $34,535 1,682 1,862 1,846 2,261 2,551 2,938 724 813 928 71 118 136 1,436 1,676 1,707 938 988 1,037 Percent increase 1971-73 27 10 30 28 92 19 11 26.0 34,231 38,256 43,125 7,477 1,930 396 8,505 2,331 572 9,347 2,565 681 9,803 11,407 12,593 28.5 3,210 3,925 4,335 35.0 47,244 53,588 60,053 27.1 25 33 72 The largest source of income security benefits for the elderly stem from employment-related retirement programs. Of these, the largest by far is the social security system, which provided payments of $27.1 billion in 1971 to 12.9 million retired workers, their 4 million dependents, and to 3.7 million elderly widows. Of these beneficiaries, 17.4 million were 65 or over. Other employment-related programs will provide $5.8 billion in 1973, or some 14% of total cash outlays benefiting the aged. These benefits are estimated to exceed by 23% their 1971 levels, a somewhat slower rate of expansion than that for social security benefits—-27% over the 2-year period. The remaining cash benefits for aged persons are income-tested grants. In 1971, $1.4 billion of welfare grants w7ere made to the aged, almost entirely through old-age assistance. This amount will reach $1.7 billion in 1973, assisting some 2.2 million aged persons. Old-age assistance provided within each of the 50 States has State-determined eligibility and benefit levels. Veterans pension provided benefits of $938 million for an additional 760,000 needy aged—all veterans—in 1971. This amount will rise to $1,037 million in 1973, although caseload will not rise, reflecting SPECIAL ANALYSES 189 increased benefit levels. Any person who has seen wartime military service, is over age 65, and meets the financial requirements, is eligible for this cash benefit. The elderly receive considerable additional benefits from in-kind and tax transfer programs. In 1973, an estimated 59% of total cash outlays for income security purposes will go to the elderly. However, the proportion of total in-kind benefits received by the aged will be 62%, and the proportion of total income security tax transfers going to the elderly in 1973 will be 65%. Medicare is the major in-kind program benefiting the aged. This is a unique income security program to finance medical services in the event of nonchronic illness. All persons over age 65 with social security coverage and, in addition, those persons who were age 65 before the year of enactment (1965) are automatically provided with hospitalization insurance and can elect supplementary medical insurance covering physicians' services. Medicare benefits will reach $9.3 billion in 1973, covering 21 million aged persons. Medicare outlays are financed in part from contributions under OASDHI. Medicaid in 1973 will furnish $2.6 billion of medical services to needy aged persons. Medicaid covers costs of chronic illness, and the cost sharing required by Medicare for those aged persons not able to meet these expenses from their own resources. Medicaid, like old-age assistance, has State-determined eligibility and benefit levels. Other in-kind program benefits received by the aged provide food and shelter on an income-tested basis. Needy aged participate in public housing and other subsidized housing at approximately twice the rate at which other low-income persons participate in these housing programs. Food stamps and commodity surplus distribution pay part of the cost of food for needy aged persons, reaching almost $J4 billion in 1973. Specific provisions of the Federal personal income tax are designed to benefit the aged. The major dollar impacts accrue from the extra exemptions available to all persons 65 or over, from the exclusion of all social security benefits from tax liability (not just the portion representing a return of the taxpayer's original contribution), and to a much lesser degree, the retirement income credit. The net supplementation of the spending power of the retired and elderly achieved by these particular tax law provisions is an estimated $4.3 billion in 1973. TARGET GROUPS Annuitants.—There are four federally run contributory retirement systems: social security (OASI), railroad retirement, civil service, and the foreign service retirement system. Outlays for these four programs represent benefits paid to retired persons who made contributions to these trust funds during their working life. Other income security benefits are basically financed by taxes levied on different groups of persons than those receiving the payment. The coverage of these retirement plans is suggested by their names, with social security reaching most wage and salary workers and many self-employed persons in the United States. In all four systems, the benefit calculations are based upon the history of contributions. 190 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table L-4. ANNUITIES TO PRIMARY BENEFICIARIES IN CONTRIBUTORY RETIREMENT SYSTEMS^ANNUITY BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENTS BY SYSTEM Benefit outlays Number of bene(millions) ficiaries (thousands) 1971 1972 1973 1971 1972 1973 actual est. est. actual est. est. Average monthly payments 1971 1972 1973 actual est. est. Old-age and survivors insurance___ $17,455 $19,669 $22,106 10,676 11,156 11,644 $136 $147 $158 Railroad Retirement .Board.... 1,040 1,159 1,151 390 394 397 223 245 242 Civil Service Commission..___ 2,003 2,260 2,608 493 528 562 338 357 387 Foreign Service retirement 19 21 22 2 2 2 833 859 869 Total 20,517 23,109 25,887 _.__ _.__ ._.. Under old-age and survivors insurance (OAS1) 10.7 million retired workers received pensions in 1971 related to the amounts paid into the system. Some 389,500 recipients in 1971 are primary beneficiaries under the railroad retirement system, but about 40% of these retirees are also recipients of social security benefits. A total of 493,300 persons are beneficiaries of the civil service retirement system and 1,900 of the foreign service retirement system, with little or no overlap between these two Federal employee systems. At least 40% of beneficiaries of the two Federal civilian employee systems are also receiving social security. The probable total number of primary beneficiaries of all the contributory retirement systems is thus 11.2 million persons in 1971, and 12.2 million in 1973. Outlays of the social security system constitute a fairly constant 85% of the annuities to the primary beneficiaries under the four contributory retirement systems. These annuity-tvpe outlays constituted $20.5 billion in 1971 and will rise to $25.9 billion in 1973. The 1973 expenditure represents an increase of 12% over the estimated 1972 level. There is a wide range among the systems in the average benefit per primary beneficiary, reflecting the differences among them in contribution rates—from $158 per month for OASI in 1973 to $869 per month for the foreign service. Other aged.—This category includes those programs or parts of programs which benefit the aged, but where the benefit outlay to a specific individual is based upon criteria other than his or her own contribution. The criterion of the program may be a contributions history of some related person, and is not necessarily based on any measure of need. This definition includes benefits to aged widows under contributory retirement programs, and to the widows of uniformed servicemen; benefits to the wives of annuitants which are based upon the husband's contribution history; the minimum benefit payments under social security and railroad retirement which, in effect, put a floor under the payments made based on earnings; payments to aged retirees from the uniformed services who make no contribution to SPECIAL ANALYSES 191 their retirement system; public assistance to the aged; Medicaid benefits to elderly persons; Medicare; and certain in-kind benefits to needy, aged persons. Underlying all these program outlays is the presumption that persons past a certain age (for example, 65) are generally not self-supporting through their own current earnings. Benefits to aged persons present difficult problems of meshing, consistency, and equity among the various program benefits. This is due in good part to the multiplicity of program payments serving this target group, and to the maturity of the programs of which they are a part. Table L-5. BENEFITS FOR THE AGED EXCEPT ANNUITIES TO PRIMARY BENEFICIARIES: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Benefits (millions) 1971 actual 1972 est. 1973 est. Number of beneficiaries (thousands) Average monthly payments 1971 actual 1971 1972 1973 actual est. est. 1972 est. 1973 est. Benefits to widows: Social security (OASDI) members $5,168 $5,781 $7,331 3,727 3,934 4,150 $119 $120 $144 Railroad employees _. _ 371 278 280 112 118 119 400 405 275 Federal civilian employees 240 157 148 164 135 143 156 270 307 Uniformed services 72 69 members 417 66 548 574 457 497 529 Coal miners 71 48 66 153 156 156 16 118 136 Benefits to wives of living retirees: Social security (OAS80 74 69 DI) members.__. 2,545 2,792 3,076 3,053 3,132 3,207 99 109 107 Railroad employees _. _ 252 216 214 211 280 278 Minimum benefit payments: Social security (OAS65 60 63 DI) members 1,624 1,646 1,615 2,264 2,174 2,066 94 94 16 17 93 15 17 Railroad employees 19 18 Dependents of aged retirees: Social security (OASDI) members..__ 327 359 407 546 560 568 50 53 60 Aged retirees, uniformed 70 75 400 424 478 64 356 430 services 307 773 101 108 112 774 760 988 1,037 Aged veterans 938 60 64 65 Medicare 7,477 8,505 9,347 10,400 11,000 12,000 Public assistance to the aged, including refugees and Indians: 66 66 57 Old-age assistance 1,436 1,676 1,707 2,117 2,121 2,159 650 268 308 329 631 601 Medicaid 1,930 2,331 2,565 In-kind benefits to needy aged: 7 7 6 221 2,448 2,542 2,593 204 Food 163 84 91 337 455 332 460 368 Housing 233 58 Tax transfers 3,210 3,925 4,335 Total 26,727 30,479 34,166 192 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Aged widows.—Aged widows account for $8.7 billion in benefit outla}^ in 1973—or 26% of all benefits to the aged outside of annuities to primary beneficiaries. Some 3.7 million aged widows received benefits from social security in 1971 with 1.1 million widows covered in other programs. There is considerable overlap of these other program beneficiaries with those covered by social security. Widows of annuitants under the four contributory retirement systems have limited entitlement to annuities after the death of the primary beneficiary. For example, there is incomplete vesting—or the automatic right to benefits. Remarriage of the widow may, depending upon the particular program, terminate the widow's benefit based upon her husband's contribution. Under social security, benefits depend upon age (either 62 or 60—at a reduced rate) and other earned income. Civil service benefits for widows depend upon the election by the retiree of benefits financed through a reduction in his own annuity while still living, and are available to the widow regardless of age or other income. Retired members of the uniformed services similarly can elect a reduced annuity to provide survivors benefits. For veterans benefits, the surviving widow of a veteran who died due to a service-connected disability is entitled to survivors benefits, and the widow of any veteran of wartime service can receive a small, income-tested pension. Military retirement or dependents' indemnity compensation benefits to widows are not adjusted for income, while pensions for veterans' widows are so adjusted (with 10% of social security benefits excluded from countable income). Aged wives of retirees.—Under OASI and railroad retirement, $3.4 billion will be paid in 1973 as benefits to women in their capacity as wives of covered retirees. This entitlement is independent of any contribution history of their own, and requires only that they exceed a particular age, although it will vary with both her husband's and her own earned income. Where a wife has dual entitlement under social security based upon her earnings history, as well as her husband's, she will receive only the larger benefit. In the railroad retirement system, she receives both benefits. In 1973, 352,000 wives will have dual entitlement under, social security in which the wife's benefit exceeds the benefit based upon own earnings. Payments based on the minimum.—In 1971, $1.6 billion of social security outlays were paid in the form of statutory minimum amounts to retired workers, to the dependents of such retired workers, and to noninsured beneficiaries age 72 and over. This will remain at $1.6 billion in 1973 as new retirees come into the system with contributions over the minimum. A total of 2.3 million persons received such minimum benefit payments in 1971, which will fall to 2.1 million during 1973. Aged retirees of the "uniformed services.—The retirement systems for the uniformed and military services are wholly federally financed, and therefore the benefits paid cannot be related to a contributions history. Aged retirees from the military and other uniformed services (those over 65) received $307 million of benefits in 1971 and will receive an estimated $430 million in 1973. There are 75,300 persons under these programs at an average benefit of $5,700 per year in 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 193 Disabled.—The disabled is a target group for whom there is a presumption of permanent inability to achieve self-support. Eligibility for an income security benefit for the disabled person may be based on: membership in a contributory retirement system (OASDI, or civil service), on military service, on occupation (coal miner), or on indigency (welfare). Almost 8 million persons in the United States are currently receiving income security benefits from Federal programs on the basis of medically verified physical or mental disability. The disabled will receive $11.2 billion in 1971, and these benefits will reach $14.4 billion in 1973—an increase of almost one-third. The increases are distributed among the types of programs from which disabled persons draw income security benefits: disability insurance provisions of retirement systems; disability compensation for persons with wartime military service; public assistance to adults and disabled male heads of families; Medicaid; and special benefits to disabled coal miners. Table L-6. BENEFITS FOR THE DISABLED: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES, AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Benefits (millions) 1971 actual 1972 est. 1973 est. Number of Beneficiaries (thousands) 1971 actual 1972 est. Average monthly payments 1973 est. 1971 1972 1973 actual est. est. Civilian covered employment: Disability insurance $3,381 $3,960 $4,584 2,669 2,925 3,122 $178 $180 $189 Federal civilian employees. 692 766 883 219 233 246 263 274 299 Railroad employees 106 114 113 36 36 35 207 224 225 Coal miners.. 181 356 317 45 94 120 207 212 212 Uniformed services: Military service-connected disability 3,277 3,518 3,836 3,013 3,095 3,155 91 95 101 Other: nonincome-tested__ 569 644 756 150 158 166 316 340 380 Other: income-tested 438 462 485 306 301 306 119 128 132 Public assistance to the disabled, including refugees and Indians: Aid to the blind 60 64 65 81 81 82 62 66 66 Aid to the permanently and totally disabled.— 646 855 950 943 1,067 1,192 57 66 66 AFDC (disabled male head of family) 291 364 417 927 1,017 1,345 26 30 26 Medicaid 332 401 442 180 197 215 153 170 171 Medicare changes 534 750 .___ . . . . 60 In-kind benefits to needy disabled: Food 72 89 97 698 738 754 8 10 11 Tax transfers 1,195 1,280 1,435 ____ .... .... .... Total 11,242 12,873 14,914 .... .... —. About $4.2 billion was provided to the disabled covered by retirement systems in 1971. Members of the social security system and the railroad retirement system are eligible for retirement benefits computed on their earnings history to the date of permanent disability. They receive additional benefits for dependent children residing with them http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 194 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 although not for a non-aged wife. Federal civilian employees receive a disability benefit based on total disability for his previous occupation—paying a minimum benefit of 40% of the average of his highest 3 years of earnings. However, when he reaches age 65 this benefit is adjusted to the retirement annuity to which his contributions to date of disability retirement actually entitled him. The uniformed services have an entirely different method of computing benefits to the disabled. Rather than relating benefits to previous levels of earnings, they are scaled to the degree of physical impairment. Disability retirement from the military, and veterans compensation and indemnities, are both provided for disabilities which are presumptively service-connected. Veterans' pensions provide benefits to persons who have seen wartime military service and have suffered non-service-connected disability, where financial need can be demonstrated. Together, these programs provided $4.3 billion of benefits in 1971, and will increase to $5.1 billion by 1973. Under the recently enacted (December 1969) Federal Coal Mine Health and Safety Act, compensation is paid to black lung victims in amounts related to the workmen's compensation law provided for Federal employees (FECA). Registration for benefits began in 1970. By 1973, benefits to disabled coal miners will be paid in the amount of $317 million. Social security benefits were concurrently received by 9 1 % of disabled coal miners in 1971, bringing all of these persons above the low-income threshold. Public assistance is provided for disabled persons under three categories: the blind, the permanently and totally disabled, and the disabled heads of families who meet the asset and income eligibility tests for aid to families with dependent children. There are great diversities among the program benefits, depending upon the State of residence, in this as in other welfare programs. Approximately 1.7 million persons receive disability benefits under social security. Another 220,000 individuals receive benefits through Federal civilian employee programs. Allowing for overlap, some 1.8 million persons receive disability benefits calculated on their previous earnings. In 1971, there were 3.5 million persons receiving disability benefits based upon uniformed service. It is estimated that by 1973, 120,000 disabled coal miners will be receiving special benefits under the black lung program. Approximately 1.3 million adults and almost three-fourths of a million children are supported by welfare payments predicated upon the disability of the adult. These persons are all eligible for Medicaid benefits. Several provisions of the personal income tax code provide tax transfers to specific disabled persons. The largest of these by far is the exemption from taxation of compensation or pension payments received by veterans. Additionally, the exemption of disability insurance benefits under social security, the exclusion of workmen's compensation benefits from taxation, and provisions excluding certain types of payments such as sick pay, all provide tax benefits for disabled persons receiving particular program benefits. SPECIAL ANALYSES 195 Mothers and dependent children.—Benefit eligibility varies considerably for this last target group for whom self-support is not assumed to be universally possible. This group includes mothers with dependent children, and no male breadwinner. These mothers receive income security benefits under two types of programs, the first being related to the employment of a deceased husband. In 1971, $3.6 billion was provided to widows of covered employees under OASDI. Some 1.5 million families receive survivors benefits from social security, and an additional 350,000 families received benefits under other employment-re'ated programs. These benefits parallel widows benefits under each of the systems with the addition of allowances for dependents. Beginning in 1970, benefits are provided to widows and children of deceased coal miners who suffered from black lung disease. By 1973, these outlays will reach $21 million for this target group. It is estimated that 6,000 families will receive these benefits, with seven-eighths of these families also receiving social security benefits. Table L-7. BENEFITS FOR MOTHERS WITH DEPENDENT CHILDREN AND NO HUSBAND: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Benefits (millions) 1971 actual 1972 est. 1973 est. Number of beneficiaries (thousands) 1971 actual \9T2 est. 1973 est. Average monthly payments 1971 actual 1972 1973 est. est. Benefits to widows of covered employees: Social security (OASDI) members $3,639 $3,932 $4,320 3,268 3,369 3,474 $101 $101 $106 Railroad employees 21 24 25 12 12 152 153 154 12 Federal civilian employees. 80 89 101 42 44 167 177 191 40 Uniformed service members 97 103 in 345 373 426 296 302 313 Coal miners _ _ 4 6 250 255 255 11 18 21 1 Public assistance (AFDC) mothers with preschool children: Cash payments 28 27 1,525 1,863 2,133 4,743 5,665 6,881 26 408 Medical services 493 548 212 181 157. 198 252 223 50 60 210 Tax transfers Total 6,079 6,852 7,779 The second type of assistance to mothers with dependent children are means-tested programs—dominated by welfare. Approximately $1.5 billion of cash payments was made in 1971 to women with preschool children. These AFDC families with preschoolers received an additional $408 million of medical services. Estimates are not available for the other in-kind benefits provided to this group. Cash payments and medical services to female-headed AFDC families with preschool children will reach $2.7 billion in 1973. The major provision of the income tax law benefiting this target group is deductibility of child-care expenses up to $600 per year for 196 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 one child ($900 for two or more) if income is less than $6,000. Legislation now before Congress would substantially liberalize this benefit, increasing the maximum amount deductible to $4,800 (or $92 per week) for one or more children for family income up to $18,000. Transitional low income.—The bulk of the population of the United States—48%—are able-bodied men and women, as compared to 10% who are aged. A much smaller proportion of the beneficiaries and outlays under programs are made on behalf of the able-bodied temporary poor. The intent of income security outlays for able-bodied men and women is to tide over such persons during intervals when they cannot support themselves, until other measures correct the causes of such inability to provide self-support. Benefits are available from a range of programs, with great variation in benefits and in the stringency of eligibility requirements. There is a great potential for harmonizing and rationalizing outlays for this target group, and it is one of the main focuses of welfare reform. In many cases, there is not much consistency in the distribution of these benefits. The pyramiding of separate programs leads, in some instances, to disproportionate decreases in income security benefits when own income rises, creating incentive effects adverse to the fundamental aim of these programs, that of ending dependency on Government benefits. The major system of unemployment insurance is a dual responsibility of Federal and State governments. Under this system, 72% of all workers are covered. State governments pay the costs of benefits— estimated at $5.3 billion in 1973, and constituting 93% of unemployment benefits expected to pay under all public programs. The States also administer the program but the Federal Government pays for the administrative costs. Benefit levels and duration vary among the States because each State is allowed to establish its own benefit level. There are also unemployment benefit programs for Federal employees and ex-servicemen, railroad employees, and for unemployed workers in industries adversely affected by foreign trade. These programs are State-administered but are federally financed. Some 7.7 million persons were aided with unemployment benefits in 1971 and it is anticipated that 8.0 million persons will receive unemployment benefits in 1973. These outlays total $5.7 billion in 1971, rising to $6.4 billion in 1972, and declining to $5.8 billion in 1973, as the economic situation improves. A second set of programs providing income security benefits to able-bodied men and women are means-tested cash and in-kind benefit programs. Approximately $1.2 billion was spent in 1971 under cash assistance to families with able-bodied unemployed fathers, cash assistance to families in the AFDC program with all children in school, and to Cuban refugees and Indians. In-kind food, housing, and medical service benefits were provided through Medicaid, public housing, food stamps, child nutrition programs, and commodity distribution to these and other low-income families and children. These outlay will reach a level of $5.1 billion in 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 197 Table L-8 BENEFITS FOR TRANSITIONAL LOW-INCOME AND OTHER: BENEFITS, BENEFICIARIES AND AVERAGE PAYMENT Number of bcneAverage monthly Benefits (millions) ficiaries (thousands) payments 1971 1972 1973 1971 1972 1973 1971 1972 1973 actual est. est. actual est. est. actual est. est. Temporary unemployment: Unemployment insurance Other unemployment benefits Long-term unemployment: Unemployed fathers Mothers with all children in school Other income-tested 1 In-kind benefits, low income: Food 2 Housing 2 Medical Tax transfers $5,229 $5,860 $5,275 7,072 8,742 7,326 $62 $56 $60 517 568 593 599 648 73 74 73 534 867 1,052 21 29 27 1,242 74 1,422 3,162 3,776 4,587 186 203 86 HI 27 41 27 33 26 35 500 557 630 2,790 880 672 740 3,002 23,903 24,427 25,861 1,303 728 993 1,503 739 476 384 337 645 7 57 109 8 74 146 10 72 183 Subtotal, transitional low income 1_ 10,794 13,093 13,385 Uniformed service retirees under 65 Food for nonneedy children. Other 2,575 493 1,231 3,000 590 1,445 3,629 599 652 702 602 30,020 30,422 32,330 1,544 358 383 1 2 ___. _.__ 431 2 ____ 4,229 5,035 5,725 Subtotal, other Total 1 2 185 301 1,016 54 2,106 345 726 15,201 18,312 19,384 Includes all AFDC-related assistance to refugees and Indians. Includes all benefits to AFDC and UF families. Additional benefit outlays to able-bodied men and women are made to uniformed services retirees under the age of 65. Some 599,000 persons received $2.6 billion upon retirement after at least 20 years of service in the military forces. This outlay will reach $3.6 billion in 1973 with the enactment of proposals now before Congress. The provision of income tax law providing significant tax benefits to persons in this target group is the exemption from taxation of unemployment insurance benefits. TOTAL FEDERAL BENEFITS TO LOW-INCOME PERSONS The low-income population is defined by the Census Bureau in terms of family size and annual family income before taxes. In 1970, 25.5 million Americans had incomes below the low-income level ($3,944 for a family of four). Of the total, 48% were under 21 and 18% were 65 or over; and 69% were white and 31% nonwhite. In general, the low-income population has been decreasing since 1959, when there were 39.5 million persons in this category. The 198 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 proportion of this category in female-headed families (excluding female unrelated individuals) has risen from 18% in 1959 to 30% in 1970, reflecting the faster rise of male-headed families to higher income levels. Table L-9 displays estimates of direct benefits to low-income persons through Federal expenditures and direct loan programs. The latest available program and demographic information was used in deriving these estimates. Possible effects of revenue sharing proposals are not reflected. Table L-9. TOTAL FEDERAL BENEFITS TO LOW-INCOME PERSONS BY FUNCTIONAL PROGRAM AREAS (outlays in billions of dollars) Income security/cash Income security/in-kind _ Education Health Manpower Other Total 1966 actual 1967 actual 1968 actual 1969 actual 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 est. 1973 request (est.) 8.1 .3 .5 .8 .9 .5 8.3 .3 .9 2.1 1.2 .7 9.0 .4 1.1 3.1 1.4 .9 9.8 .6 1.1 3.6 1.4 .9 10.7 1.1 1.2 4.1 1.5 1.2 13.2 2.4 1.5 5.0 1.9 1.5 15.2 3.2 1.7 6.2 2.3 2.1 15.6 3.6 1.7 6.0 2.6 2.0 11.3 13.5 15.9 17.5 19.7 25.5 30.6 31.5 Income security/cash programs are the largest single component of Federal benefits to low-income persons—an estimated 50% of the total in 1973. These programs—chiefly social security and public assistance—account for 40% of the dollar growth from 1971 to 1973. Another 17% of the growth during this period is in health programs (e.g., Medicare and Medicaid). The greatest relative increase is in the income security/in-kind category, mostly due to increases in food stamps and housing payment programs. The second largest relative increase is in the manpower category, due in large part to the new emeigency employment assistance program. Overall, Federal benefits to low-income persons in 1973 will be $31.5 billion, 80% above the 1969 level. At least $11 billion (35%) in 1973 will go to low-income elderly. Table L-10. TOTAL FEDERAL BENEFITS TO LOW-INCOME PERSONS BY ANALYTICAL CATEGORIES (outlays in billions of dollars) Human investment Low-income entitlement Normal entitlement-.. Maintenance Low-income entitlement Normal entitlement.-. Total 1966 actual 1967 actual 1968 actual 1969 actual 1970 actual 1971 actual 1.8 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.9 (1.5) (.3) 9.5 (2.1) (.4) 11.0 (2.6) (.5) 12.8 (2.6) (.5) 14.3 (2.8) (.6) 16.3 (3.4) (.8) 21.3 (3.8) (1.1) 25.7 (4.1) (1.2) 26.2 (3.4) (6.1) (3.8) (7.1) (4.8) (8.0) (5.5) (8.8) (6.9) (10.3) (13.7) (9.5) (11.0) (12.0) (13.2) (13.0) 11.3 13.5 15.9 17.5 19.7 25.5 1972 est. 30.6 1973 request (cst.) 5.3 31.5 SPECIAL ANALYSES 199 Table L-10 shows Federal outlays to low-income persons by analytical categories. Human investment programs are intended to enhance individuals' capabilities to become self-supporting. Programs in this category actively promote education, the development of work skills, and community and economic development. Maintenance programs provide income support and essential services to maintain individuals' or families' level of living. This category includes income security/cash programs and food, health, and housing assistance. Within either category, programs are classified by eligibility criteria. Persons qualify for low-income entitlement programs specifically because they have low incomes. Normal entitlement programs are those for which low-income persons qualify for some reason other than their income level—e.g., because of prior work experience (social security) or because of age (Medicare). PROGRAM EXPENDITURES Income security benefits will reach $102 billion in 1973. Of this, the largest program is OASDI at $43.8 billion. Benefits will be received by 28.3 million persons in 1973. The second largest program is Medicare at $9.9 billion, serving 21 million of these same persons. Next in size is public assistance at $7.0 billion. 200 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table L-11. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS, BY DEPARTMENT AND PROGRAM Department, agency, and program Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Social security: Old-age and survivors insurance Disability insurance Hospital insurance Supplementary medical insurance Public assistance: Maintenance payments Medicaid Special benefits for disabled coal miners Assistance to refugees Public health service officers retirement Medical care for retired commissioned officers Proposed legislation included above Total, Health, Education, and Welfare Veterans administration: Disability and dependency and indemnity compensation Veterans and survivors pensions Life insurance (net subsidy) Other veterans benefits Proposed legislation included above Total, Veterans Administration Department of Labor: Unemployment insurance (State programs) Railroad unemployment Unemployment compensation for Federal employees and ex-servicemen Trade adjustment activities Federal workmen's compensation Total, Labor Department of Defense—Military: Military retirement Medical care for retirees Proposed legislation included above Total, Defense Department of Agriculture: Food stamps Child nutrition Special milk Removal of surplus commodities Total, Agriculture Civil Service Commission: Civil service retirement Special annuities (CSC) Total, Civil Service Commission Benefit outlays (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 31,100 3,381 5,442 2,035 34,542 3,960 6,265 2,240 39,250 4,584 7,395 2,486 5,109 3,228 297 75 11 3 6,306 3,898 548 98 13 3 6,961 4,289 538 126 17 (3,903) 5,068 5,787 65.649 3,354 2,330 17 91 3,552 2,504 19 119 (25) 3,776 2,664 18 113 (148) 5,792 6,194 6,569 5,229 95 5,860 110 5,275 93 422 16 163 424 74 165 475 90 189 5,926 6,633 6,122 3,386 180 3,928 245 4,796 307 (470) 3,566 4,173 5,102 1,523 837 91 347 1,997 1,216 94 346 2,239 1,282 93 313 2,797 3,653 3.928 3,024 1 3,413 1 3,931 1 3,025 3,414 3,932 SPECIAL ANALYSES 201 Table L-ll. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR INCOME SECURITY BENEFITS, BY DEPARTMENT AND PROGRAM—Continued Department, agency, and program Railroad Retirement Board: Railroad retirement Benefit outlays (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,889 2,084 2,069 1,889 2,084 2,069 558 42 132 839 81 328 1,018 138 607 733 1,248 1,763 65 71 73 Total, Transportation 65 71 73 Department of State: Foreign Service retirement 22 24 27 22 24 27 43 28 4 43 28 4 31 38 42 Total, Interior 31 38 42 Department of Commerce: NOAA officers retirement 2 2 2 2 2 2 3,210 650 75 1,150 3,925 690 95 1,295 (350) 4,335 790 250 1,250 (650) 5,085 6,005 6,625 79,658 91,441 101,906 Total, Railroad Retirement Board Department of Housing and Urban Development: Public housing Rent supplements Home ownership and rental housing assistance Total, Housing and Urban Development Department of Transportation: Coast Guard retirement Total, State Office of Economic Opportunity: Emergency food program Total, Office of Economic Opportunity Department of the Interior: General assistance to Indians Total, Commerce Tax Transfers: Benefits to the aged Benefits to veterans Benefits to welfare recipients and working mothers Benefits to disabled and unemployed Proposed legislation included above Total, tax transfers Total, Federal benefits SPECIAL ANALYSIS M FEDERAL HOUSING PROGRAMS COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS A wide variety of Federal programs and activities have a direct or indirect impact on the production of housing. These include programs of direct Federal construction of housing (primarily for civilian employees or military personnel), basic involvement in mortgage financing, and subsidies for housing for low- and moderate-income families. In addition, major activities outside the Federal budget, involving both Government-sponsored enterprises and private investment, occur as a direct result of Federal programs and policies. This analysis summarizes the impact of these Federal programs and activities. Programs are included if they: • Assist the production or sale of family housing; • Assist in preventing deterioration of the existing housing stock; and • Provide certain other types of indirect support for housing production.1 This analysis concentrates on the financial and budget impact of Federal and federally assisted housing activities. In particular, it focuses on federally assisted financial commitments (which usually precede starts) and on outlays (which usually follow completions). Table M-1. SUMMARY OF FEDERAL HOUSING PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 1971 Budget outlays for housing programs, excluding proceeds from sale of financial assets Less: Proceeds from sale of financial assets Net budget outlays for housing programs Federally assisted private investment in housing Borrowings by Government-sponsored enterprises included above. 3,169 —1,749 1,420 40,565 (—461) 1972 1973 4,686 5,577 —2,626 —3,521 2,060 2,056 41,276 38,208 (2,214) (3,538) SUMMARY Federal budget outlays for housing are expected to total $2.1 billion in 1973, about the same as in 1972, but $636 million above 1971. The SPECIAL ANALYSES 203 1973 estimates reflect an increase of $516 million in payments on outstanding long-term subsidy contracts supporting housing for low- and moderate-income families coupled with a substantial increase in insured loans originated in rural areas for subsequent sale by the Farmers Home Administration. The impact of these and other increases, however, is entirely offset by an $895 million increase in the sale of financial assets and other reductions, with the result that net budget outlays remain virtually unchanged from 1972 to 1973. In addition to activities included within the Federal budget totals, Government-sponsored enterprises (the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, and the Federal home loan banks) are expected to borrow $3.5 billion for investment in housing, compared to $2.2 billion in 1972. Also outside the budget totals, $38 billion is estimated to be forthcoming from private investors for federally assisted housing programs, compared with the $41 billion estimated for 1972. Table M-2. BUDGET OUTLAYS FOR HOUSING PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Budget outlays for housing by agency: Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Defense—Military Department of Agriculture Veterans Administration Federal Home Loan Bank Board Small Business Administration Other agencies Total Financial asset sales included above: Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Agriculture Veterans Administration Total Budget outlays for housing by type of programs: Guaranteed or insured financing Direct Federal financing without subsidy Subsidized housing for special groups: Financing combined with subsidy Subsidy without Federal capital investment Assistance to sponsors of housing for low- and moderate-income families Federally operated housing Research and development on housing Other assistance for housing Total 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,148 1,544 595 -185 -133 -191 712 31 795 -31 -255 -221 -235 -215 140 46 197 52 81 56 1,420 2,060 2,056 285 668 1,506 1,914 2,378 244 427 475 1,749 2,626 3,521 -278 -178 132 59 -397 -741 649 797 490 291 1,312 1,828 11 528 28 15 644 23 -137 -159 14 729 11 -151 1,420 2,060 2,056 1,605 Units committed.—The completion or sale of a unit frequently follows by lengthy periods the first commitment on the part of the Federal Government affecting that unit. For example, the agreement to insure a mortgage or provide a subsidy for a multifamily unit may predate by 204 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 18 months to 3 years the time when that unit is ready for occupancy. This lag reflects the time required to plan and construct the project. Because of this lag, the units made available for occupancy in any year largely reflect commitments made by the Government in prior years. In 1973, the Federal Government expects to make commitments to assist a total of more than 2 million units of new and rehabilitated housing, including 609,000 subsidized units. Commitments to assist the sale of existing housing are expected to total 1.8 million units in 1973, including 83,000 subsidized units. Table M-3. HOUSING UNITS COMMITTED UNDER FEDERAL PROGRAMS (in thousands of units) Type of assistance Guaranteed or insured financing: Guaranteed or insured mortgages.. Insurance on deposits in thrift institutions Direct Federal financing without subsidy Subsidized housing for special groups: Subsidy combined with financing. __ Subsidy without Federal capital investment: Low- and moderateincome families ___. Direct Federal construction or acquisition: Military family housing Other Other Federal assistance Less: Estimated duplication * Total New or rehabilitated 1971 actual Existing 1972 1973 estimate estimate 1971 actual 1972 1973 estimate estimate 483 457 519 872 818 903 450 458 420 556 681 638 63 510 508 - 200 200 82 119 49 * * * 497 631 560 60 60 83 8 13 -35 12 * 21 -18 1,561 2,190 13 * * * * * * * * 28 -13 -29 -8 -1 2,085 1,460 1,751 1,823 •Less than 500 units. Represents estimate of insured or guaranteed mortgages purchased by thrift institutions. 1 Units completed.—In combination, Federal housing programs are expected to assist in the completion for occupancy of almost 1.5 million units of new or substantially rehabilitated housing in 1973. In addition, these programs will facilitate the sale in 1973 of an estimated 1.7 million units of existing housing. Of the new or rehabilitated units, 666,000 in 1973 will be subsidized, compared with 458,000 in 1971 and 624,000 in 1972. SPECIAL ANALYSES 205 Table M-4. HOUSING UNITS MADE AVAILABLE UNDER FEDERAL PROGRAMS (in thousands of units) New or rehabilitated Type of assistance Guaranteed or insured financing: Guaranteed or insured mortgages-__ Insurance on deposits in thrift institutions Direct Federal financing without subsidy Subsidized housing for special groups: Subsidy combined with financing Subsidy without Federal capital investment: Low- and moderateincome families—._ Direct Federal construction or acquisition: Military family housing Other . Other Federal assistance Less: Estimated duplication* Total 1971 actual Existing 1972 1973 estimate estimate 137 269 269 387 1971 actual 1972 1973 estimate estima t 543 329 3 29 468 543 5 43 703 648 6 48 1,066 4 8 7 117 138 58 7 * 5 * 341 486 5 608 6 * 50 9 * 56 1 * 657 87 * * * * * 6 -14 6 -20 8 -23 -1 -8 -5 983 1,437 1,464 1,302 1,766 1,724 *Less than 500 units. Represents estimate of insured or guaranteed mortgages purchased by thrift institutions. 1 DESCRIPTION OF FEDERAL HOUSING PROGRAMS The following material describes the various types of Federal programs to aid housing. Guaranteed or insured financing.—In terms of total housing units affected, the predominant characteristic of Federal housing programs is an emphasis on facilitating the flow of private mortgage credit through the use of insurance and guarantee programs. Leading examples are the insured and guaranteed housing loan programs of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Department of Agriculture (USDA), and the Veterans Administration (VA), and the insurance of deposits in thrift institutions by the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC). Budget outlays from insurance programs are a relatively small part of the total. In HUD mortgage insurance operations and in the FSLIC, fees, premiums, and other revenues generally exceed insurance claims^ permitting reserves to be built up to cover possible losses in the future. VA's loan guarantee program generally operates at a loss, as the bulk of the loans now outstanding were guaranteed without the collection of fees. The USDA in its housing programs serves as mortgage originator and servicer as well as insurer. In this capacity, it may actually supply a portion of the financing required for the loans it insures, generally on an interim basis pending sale of the loans to private investors. The USDA insured housing loan program is addressed to meeting the needs of low- and moderate-income families. This includes loans containing an "interest credit7' feature, under which the borrower pays reduced interest rates, depending on income. 206 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 197a Direct Federal financing without subsidy.—This category includes programs which provide direct loans, or their equivalent in the form of Government purchase of mortgages, but without attaching an explicit subsidy to the loan. These programs are generally designed to serve areas where private mortgage credit is not readily available (e.g., rural areas and small towns) or to finance mortgages which the private market is not prepared to accept (such as mortgages on housing of new and experimental character, or housing in urban renewal areas). Subsidized housing for special groups: Financing combined with subsidy.—This category covers Federal programs which provide a subsidy while simultaneously providing part or all of the capital financing required for the production of the housing unit. The most common method is the low-interest rate direct loan, which is used, for example, in the Small Business Administration's disaster loan program. In addition to low-interest loans, there are several programs which provide a one-time capital grant to reduce the cost of housing to the occupant. These include grants for farm labor housing available from USDA. Subsidized housing for special groups: Subsidy without Federal investment.—This category includes programs under which the Federal Government subsidizes a dwelling unit for which the basic capital financing is provided by private investors at market rates of interest. The programs in this category (low-rent public housing, rent supplements, rental housing assistance, and homeownership assistance) are expected to add 608,000 units available for occupancy in 1973, representing a large part of the housing for low- and moderate-income families produced in that year. Under these programs, the Federal Government agrees to provide an annual (or monthly) payment on behalf of a specified unit of housing, with the subsidy contract usually running for the life of the mortgage or bond issued to finance the unit. This may be for a period of up to 40 years. In the case of the homeownership and rental housing assistance programs, the payment represents a part of the interest cost on the mortgage. In the case of low-rent public housing and rent supplements, the payment commonly covers both principal and interest on the bond or mortgage and may cover a part of the operating costs as well. In all four programs, the subsidy payment can be flexible, with rising income on the part of the occupant being reflected in a lower subsidy. Outlays for these programs will continue to rise steadily, reaching $1.8 billion in 1973 as new subsidy contracts are added to the continuing costs of contracts approved in prior years. Subsidized housing for special groups: Assistance to sponsors of housing for low- and moderate-income families.—This category includes programs of grants and loans to groups developing and operating housing for low- and moderate-income families. Also included are programs of assistance to nonprofit sponsors funded in HUD, Agriculture, and the Appalachian Regional Commission, and certain assistance to Indian tribes provided by Interior. Outlays in 1973 are expected to total $14 million. SPECIAL ANALYSES 207 Federally operated housing.—The predominant activity in this category is the provision of family housing for military personnel, totaling 9,000 units to be made available in 1973. In addition, a few units will be completed for civilian employees of a number of other Federal agencies. This consists of housing for employees who must, of necessity, be stationed in areas where adequate private housing is not available. Research and development—The HUD research and technology program is the primary focus for Federal research and development in housing. Operation Breakthrough will be completed in 1973. Major new HUD efforts include developing ways to improve housing management and testing housing allowances. In conjunction with HUD, the Building Research Division of the National Bureau of Standards will continue its program to develop improved building codes and standards. Statistical and market analysis.—In order to provide policymakers at all levels of Government and the private sector with information on housing needs and production and the condition of financial markets related to housing, the Federal Government maintains an ongoing program of statistical and market analysis. These activities range from short-range analyses of individual housing markets to broad gage statistics on housing production and mortgage flows. HOUSING ACTIVITIES OF GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED ENTERPRISES Several Government-sponsored enterprises, outside the budget, are of major importance in bousing production. These are the 12 Federal home loan banks, the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC). All operate to channel funds into mortgages by borrowing in the capital markets and directing these funds into mortgages. In the case of the Federal home loan banks, the investment takes the form of advances to thrift institutions which, in turn, invest the bulk of their assets in home mortgages. FNMA purchases FHA-insured and VA-guaranteed mortgages directly. The FHLMC purchases primarily "conventional" mortgages (those not federally insured or guaranteed). All have the result of increasing the total supply of mortgage financing. The net increase in home loan bank advances in 1973 is expected to total $1.9 billion. The net increase in FNMA mortgage holdings is estimated at $4.4 billion, while that of the FHLMC is estimated at $0.4 billion. FEDERALLY ASSISTED PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN HOUSING The vast bulk of housing in the United States is financed privately including most of that portion which is federally assisted. Directly or indirectly, Federal housing programs are expected to affect decisions by private investors involving some $38 billion in 1973. This includes a $19 billion increase in savings at thrift institutions regulated by the Federal home loan bank system which, together with advances from the home loan banks, will permit these institutions to increase their housing investments by almost $21 billion. Of this total, about 208 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 197a $3 billion will be in mortgages insured or guaranteed by the Federal Government. Of the remaining $18.7 billion increase in outstanding guaranteed mortgages, $4.4 billion will be held by FNMA, and $0.4 billion by the FHLMC, leaving $13.9 billion for purchase by other private investors. These investors will also purchase an estimated $2.1 billion of tax-exempt notes and bonds financing the construction of low-rent public housing and will finance $3.5 billion of borrowings by FNMA and the Federal Home Loan Bank System. In order to facilitate investment in Government insured or guaranteed mortgages, the Government National Mortgage Association is authorized to guarantee mortgage-backed securities. Under this program, private financial institutions accumulate a supply of mortgages and sell securities based on these mortgages to investors, promising to pass on the principal and interest collections. GNMA will guarantee $3.1 billion of these securities in 1973. This amount will constitute part of the net increase in outstanding guaranteed or insured mortgages shown in table M-5. Table M-5. NET FEDERALLY ASSISTED PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN HOUSING (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Increase in outstanding guaranteed or insured mortgages: Federal Housing Administrationl Veterans Administration._._ Farmers Home Administration 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 14,397 1,966 1,280 17,565 3,305 1,603 16,244 3,448 1,969 17,644 22,473 21,661 -5,478 -2,168 —446 -4,600 -4,887 —524 -3,000 -4,402 —398 9,551 12,462 13,860 26,917 2,995 26,072 — 1,159 20,600 — 1,900 29,912 24,913 18,700 Increase in outstanding guaranteed public housing bonds and notes. 1,563 1,687 2,110 Increase in outstanding borrowings from the public by Governmentsponsored enterprises: Federal National Mortgage Association Federal Home Loan Banks Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 1,476 -2,551 615 775 739 700 475 1,478 1,585 Subtotal Less net increase in holdings by: Thrift institutions regulated or insured by the Federal Home Loan Bank System (estimated) Federal National Mortgage Association. Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Net from other private investors Increase in assets of thrift institutions regulated or insured by the Federal Home Bank System Less net increase in advances from Federal Home Loan banks Net from other private investors 1 Subtotal_.__ _ -461 2,214 3,538 Total __ 40,565 41,276 38,208 ___ Includes property improvement loans and.some nonhousing mortgages. SPECIAL ANALYSIS N FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS ACTIVITIES COVERAGE AND SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS This analysis of Federal civil rights activities comprises more than the traditional programs and policies related to civil rights enforcement. In addition to Federal activities regarding the protection of such rights as voting, public accommodations, fair housing, and equal employment opportunity in the public and private sectors, there are included Federal programs specifically related to the provision of equality of other opportunities to certain identifiable minority groups. The latter programs include activities in desegregation assistance, civil rights research and information dissemination, and the conciliation and prevention of racial disputes. Total outlays have risen from $911 million in 1969 to $2.6 billion in 1973 Outlays (or Civil Rights Activities $ Billions 3 I 1 Minority Assistance 2.6 Enforcement 2.0 2— 1.6 1.! I— .9 1969 Fiscal Y « a « http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—7S Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1970 1971 1973 1972 Estimate 209 210 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Further, there are included in this analysis programs which have as their goal the broadening of economic participation on the part of minorities including the achievement of self-determination by American Indians. These programs include the many efforts of Federal agencies to foster minority business enterprise and to increase minority bank deposits, education programs to expand assistance to minority institutions, and Federal expenditures to improve the living conditions of American Indians. The distinction between the categories of moneys discussed in this analysis is an important one and the reader is cautioned to read carefully the definitions contained in the footnotes to the various tables. Programs relating to problems of the economically and socially disadvantaged, even when they include1 substantial minority participation, whether in manpower training, community action, or bilingual education, will not be treated as civil rights activities for they are more properly considered in other analyses in this document. Table N-1. FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY PROGRAM CATEGORY (in millions of dollars) 1971 actual Civil rights enforcement: 1 Federal service equal employment opportunities Military services equal opportunities Private sector equal employment opportunities Equal educational opportunity Fair housing 2 Enforcement and investigation 3 Program direction, research and information dissemination Indian programs Civil rights conciliation and prevention of disputes 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 27.80 5.95 34.43 70. 30 7.55 34.15 30.80 20.30 49.89 122.90 9.07 46.48 32.30 28.25 66.29 400.00 10.88 50.07 4.96 0.40 4.20 5.88 0.70 5.60 7.01 0.80 6.50 189.74 291.62 602.10 459.09 909.00 18.90 624.56 1,100.00 29.15 715.87 1,200.00 42.11 Subtotal. 1,386.99 1,753.71 1,957.98 Total 1,576.73 2,045.33 2,560.08 Subtotal 4 Minority assistance programs: Minority business enterprise 5 Indian programs (estimate) Minority higher educational assistance6. 1 law. 2 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as denned by Excludes funds for departmental personnel who directly administer housing and urban development programs but also concern themselves with the objectives of fair housing laws. 3 Includes all title VI efforts except HUD. 4 Minority assistance programs broaden opportunities for economic participation and selfdetermination. 5 Excludes the minority bank deposit program and Indian programs. 6 Outlays for all Federal financial assistance to predominantly black colleges (developing institutions and land-grant colleges) to improve the educational opportunities of minority group students will exceed $200 million in 1973, more than double the 1969 level. These outlays exclude the Federal share of Howard University expenses—$53.2 million (1972); $62,3 million (1973). However, outlays shown in the above table reflect only the HEW program for strengthening developing minority institutions and assistance to minority institutions from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Agriculture. 1 For example, although 45% of the participants in manpower training programs are minorities, refer to Special Analysis J, Federal Manpower Programs. 211 SPECIAL ANALYSES Federal Service equal opportunities.—Government policy prohibits discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, or national origin. Executive Order 11478, and implementing regulations and instructions issued by the Civil Service Commission, call for the application of this policy as an integral part of personnel administration. During 1971, 14,936 Federal employees and applicants contacted equal employment opportunity counselors for advice and assistance. The head of each Federal executive department and agency is charged with establishing and maintaining an affirmative program of equal employment opportunity in his agency. Agency programs are documented in written plans of action, with many including the use of numerical goals and timetables as an effective affirmative personnel management tool. Careful consideration is also given to assure that recruitment activities reach all sources of job candidates, that present employee skills are fully utilized, and that upward mobility programs and opportunities are provided. Outlays for Federal civil service equal employment opportunity programs will increase by 16% in the 2 years, 1971 to 1973, to $32 million. Man-years will increase by 336 to 2,455. Although firm projections on the results of these increased efforts are difficult to make, the favorable trends observed in recent years should continue. Increase in Minorities by Grades —November 1969-May 1971 Percentage 60 55.7 50 — 40- 30 — SI.4 15.7 10 7.3 —1.1 10- GS 1-4 5-8 'General Schedule and Similar Grade Groupings. 9-11 12-13 14-15 16-18 212 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 As of May 31, 1971, nearly one-fifth (19.5%) of Federal employees were members of minority groups. Despite a decrease in overall Federal employment, there has been a continuing trend of more minorities in Federal service and increased opportunities for minorities in the middle and upper grade and pay levels. (See chart 2.) Under general schedule and similar pay plans, more than 13,000 minority employees were hired between November 1969 and May 1971, and minority increases in the middle and upper grade levels occurred at much faster rates than for nonminorities. As of October 31, 1970, women occupied 33.2% of Federal white-collar positions. Five thousand more women held positions at GS-7 through GS-12 than in the previous year. At the same time, the number of women holding positions at levels GS-13 and above increased by 7%. Two special programs have been set up to address the problems observed in implementing equal employment goals in the Federal Government. Within the overall equal employment opportunity program, the Federal women's program addresses the particular employment needs and problems of women, and the Spanish-speaking program implements a 16-point Presidential mandate on opportunities for Spanish-speaking citizens. The placement of 621 women in middle-management executive jobs (GS-13—GS-15) between April and December 1971, and of 1,151 Spanish-speaking Americans to Federal jobs, between May 1970 and May 1971 is largely attributable to the special efforts of these programs. Additional progress was evidenced by the appointment of 79 women and 23 Spanish-speaking Americans since 1969 to the highest executive positions in the Federal structure ($28,129 to $42,500), many of which had never been held by either a minority employee or a woman before. Military services equal opportunities.—Each of the military services have placed equal opportunity officers and their staffs at various levels within their individual command structures. They guide, monitor, and evaluate all matters pertaining to the equal opportunity and treatment of military personnel and their dependents and are responsible for and participate in race relations councils, seminars, and training. In 1973, outlays for providing equal opportunities for members of the armed services will increase 38% to $28.3 million. An additional 550 man-years will be devoted to these efforts. The Defense Race Relations Institute, located at Patrick Air Force Base, Fla., trains officers and enlisted men for service with their units as instructors. Training and education in race relations are also included in service schools ranging from basic training to the senior service colleges. Special programs are also designed to increase minority participation in skilled jobs, examine current testing procedures for cultural bias, and to develop race relations handbooks. Recruiting efforts are increasing to insure balanced minority participation in the military services. All services have increased the SPECIAL ANALYSES 213 percentage of minority recruiters. In the service academies, an example of success can be found in the current school year freshman class. The enrollment of 126 black freshmen exceeds the number of minority graduates for the preceding decade, and total black student population has risen from 128 in 1969 to 299 in 1971. Private employment.—Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, or national origin by either employers, unions, or employment agencies. Executive Order 11246, as amended, requires Federal Government contractors to provide similar opportunities. The agencies charged with these responsibilities, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, the Justice Department, and the Office of Federal Contracts Compliance and 15 cooperating agencies will receive $66.3 million in resources in 1973, an increase of 33%. The 1973 budget of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission will allow it to increase the size of its regional office staff and increase investigations and conciliations. Projected cash benefits resulting from Commission conciliations will grow from $2.2 million in 1969 to $18.9 million in 1973. The Commission will double in 1973 the amount of its grants to State and local agencies responsible for the administration of State and local equal employment opportunity laws from $1.5 million to $3 million. These additional resources will allow such agencies to expand their capabilities, particularly on those cases referred by the Federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. Enforcement of title VII is the responsibility of the Justice Department which enters into litigation to secure compliance with the law where it finds patterns or practices of employment discrimination in labor unions, companies, or industries. In 1973, expenditures in this area by the Justice Department will increase by 35% and enable the Department to initiate additional cases. The effectiveness of this program can be measured by the numerous favorable court decisions and consent decrees and their results: a significant increase in the number of jobs opened to minority persons and women. The rate of corrective consent decrees obtained by negotiation in employment pattern and practice cases has more than doubled in the first 6 months of 1972, compared with 1971. Executive Order 11246 prohibits the practice of discrimination in Federal contracts, subcontracts, and on federally assisted construction projects. Nondiscrimination assurances cover construction as well as industrial work forces and require affirmative action on the part of recipients of Federal contract moneys to promote the equal employment of minorities and, under recently revised guidelines, women. Approximately 300,000 new hires and promotions have been promised in such action plans. In 1973, those Federal agencies responsible for implementing this order will spend $33.7 million, more than double the 1971 outlay of $16.4 million. The number of compliance reviews performed under this program will also continue to increase—12,300 (1969); 22,500 (1971); and 52,000 (1973). 214 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Activities S Million* 30 Thousands -15 Investigations Completed 25 — Expenditures 20 — -10 15 — 10 1967 Fiscal Y i 1968 1969 f970 1971 1972 (973 Estimate Twenty-five "citywide" plans for affirmative action in the construction industry, including the well-known "Philadelphia plan," have either been signed or imposed setting goals and timetables for the employment of 28,000 additional minorities by craft. By the end of 1973, these plans should be operating in 100 cities. Efforts begun in 1972 to increase the effectiveness of both title VII and Executive Order 11246 will be continued. Such efforts 2 include the implementation of a performance management system in the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and improved techniques of compliance review and management in contract compliance agencies. Other highlights include: • The Federal Communications Commission, an independent regulatory agency, will spend $0.3 million in 1973 to investigate complaints of employment discrimination by broadcasters and common carriers and to review licensees' annual reports of employment patterns. • The Department of Labor will spend $1.8 million in administering the Equal Pay Act. In 1971, $15 million in back wages was found owed to 35,000 women as a result of such efforts. 2 Under this system, managers define explicit program objectives, establish time-phased performance targets consistent with available resources, and then periodically must report comparisons of accomplishments against targets. 215 SPECIAL ANALYSES Federal Contract Compliance Activities $ Millions Reviews, Thousands 35Contract Compliance Reviews 30 — Contract Compliance Expenditures 25 — — 50 20 — 40 15 — 30 10 — -10 5 — 1968 Fiscal Years 1969 1970 1971 J972 !973 Estimate Equal educational opportunity.—The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare and the Justice Department have primary responsibility for assuring equal educational opportunity in public schools for all citizens on a nondiscriminatory basis and to assure that there is no discrimination against either faculty or administrators. In 1973, education programs in support of these goals will be funded for $1.1 billion, including capital assistance to predominantly black colleges (developing institutions and land-grant colleges). Outlays will grow by 179% to $455 million. To enforce Federal laws requiring equal educational opportunities for public school students, the Justice Department will spend $2.5 million in the coming year, 39% more than in 1971. Though substantial compliance with the contitutional mandate has been achieved in recent years, the Justice Department continues its enforcement supervision in 255 cases involving 530 school systems. The desegregation of schools is progressing nationwide. On a national scale, the number of black students in all black schools has decreased from 40% in 1968 to an estimated 12% in 1971 and, in the South, from 68% in 1968 to an estimated 9% in 1971. Currently, the Federal Government is also taking steps to end the discrimination against Spanish-speaking and other non-Englishspeaking pupils through the provision of bilingual and bicultural education programs. 216 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 To continue these positive programs, legislation has been proposed to provide $1.5 billion over a 2-year period to local educational agencies and other public or private nonprofit institutions to help further eliminate the effects of minority group isolation in school systems. This emergency school assistance program will also provide financial assistance to aid children in overcoming the educational disadvantages resulting from minority group isolation. Fair housing.—Title VIII of the Civil Rights Act of 1968 makes unlawful any discrimination on the basis of race, color, religion, or national origin in the sale, rental, or financing of housing. Executive agencies are required to cooperate with the lead agency in this area, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), in the administration of title VIII, and to conduct their programs and activities in a manner that affirmatively furthers fair housing opportunities for all Americans. Expenditures for the administration of fair housing programs in executive departments and agencies will increase by 20% in 1973 to $10.9 million. • HUD will spend an additional 70% over 1972 to strengthen its efforts under title VIII. • The Department of Justice will spend $1.9 million in the development, litigation, and negotiation of cases to enforce title VIII. • The Department of Defense will spend $1.3 million to assure the rights of all military personnel to available off-base housing. • The General Services Administration (GSA) will spend $0.8 million, an increase of 60%, to assure that federally constructed buildings or leased space are located where there is an adequate supply of low- and moderate-income housing available on a nondiscriminatory basis. • In cooperation with the fair housing goal of the executive branch, the independent Federal financial regulatory agencies are instructing the institutions subject to their supervision to give public notice that their real estate lending services are available without regard to race, color, religion, or national origin. HUD will expand its capability to process individual complaints under title VIII. At the same time, it will continue its major efforts to ensure that the administration of housing and urban development programs further the fair housing objectives of title VIII. Such efforts include the recent issuance of policy on affirmative marketing and advertising guidelines and policies for project selection of federally assisted programs; the initiation of a national advertising campaign and expanded affirmative action programs aimed at all elements of the public; and plans to move to conduct community wide hearings and reviews of community patterns of resistance to rights granted under title VIII. The Justice Department has brought more than 100 suits against more than 300 defendants in 24 States and the District of Columbia aimed at securing comprehensive affirmative relief to correct the effects of past housing discrimination and to maximize equal opportunity in the future. In addition, more than 180 voluntary compliance agreements have been negotiated with title insurance companies, SPECIAL ANALYSES 217 real estate boards, private apartment house owners, and realtors nationwide. The Department's efforts are supplemented by private lawsuits under the Fair Housing Act, and the complaints to the Secretary of HUD, as noted above. The Defense Department expects to continue its successful implementation of the open off-base housing program. In 1967, less than 20% of the multiunit rental facilities surveyed were indicated as available to all military personnel on an equal opportunity basis. Four years later, 98% of surveyed facilities are pledged to a policy of nondiscrimination. Between 1969 and 1971, black military occupancy in these facilities has increased nearly 50%. In 1973, Defense will devote 125 man-years to furthering this record of achievement. GSA, under Executive Order 11512 and a memorandum of understanding with HUD (June 11, 1971), will expend 43 man-years on matters relating to the positive impact that selection of sites for Federal facilities can have on the social and economic conditions in the area. GSA and HUD expect to develop affirmative actions plans where necessary to insure that an adequate supply of low- and moderate-income housing will be available on a nondiscriminatory basis. For agencies like A EC, which procure space and facilities on their own, efforts are also expected to increase in this area. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Comptroller of the Currency have issued policy directives to the banks subject to their supervision, and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board published regulations, all in support of the Civil Rights Act of 1968. The policy directives and the regulations require that, effective March 1, 1972, financial institutions post notices in their lobbies and include statements in their advertising giving public assurance that their real estate financing is available without regard to race, color, religion, or national origin. In addition, the Federal Reserve Board is using a civil rights questionnaire in its bank examinations to improve compliance with civil rights legislation by banks under its supervision. The FDIC and the Comptroller of the Currency have given notice inviting public comment on a petition by public interest groups to adopt regulations which will require recordkeeping by banks concerning mortgage loan applicants and applications to assist in determining compliance with title VIII objectives. T H E BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 218 Table N-2. FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY (in millions of dollars) 1971 1972 1973 7.10 27.05 15.37 27.27 38.15 4.50 70.30 9.50 37.20 25.34 32.55 57.83 6.30 122.90 11.60 42.60 33.30 38.15 68.16 8.20 400.00 189.74 291.62 602.10 1,015.20 248.60 9.80 93.29 9.80 10.30 1,213.85 354.90 14.30 146.76 13.60 10.30 1,349.51 354.90 14.30 210.07 18.90 10.30 Subtotal 1,386.99 1,753.71 1,957.98 Total 1,576.73 2,045.33 2,560.08 Civil rights enforcement:1 Complaint conciliation Complaint investigation Compliance review and monitoring Legal enforcement Program direction and research Technical assistance Equal educational opportunity Subtotal Minority assistance programs: 2 Capital assistance—grants Capital assistance—loans Capital assistance—guarantees Procurement from minorities Program direction and support Technical assistance 1 law. 2 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as defined by Minority assistance programs broaden opportunities (or economic participation and self-determination, including Indian programs. Civil rights enforcement.—Primary responsibility for the enforcement of civil rights laws and constitutional guarantees is vested in the Department of Justice. This includes the development, negotiation, conciliation, and litigation of cases and complaints. In 1973 the Justice Department and other agencies with enforcement responsibility will spend $50 million, an expansion of 47% over 1971 resources. In addition to activities related to employment discrimination, fair housing and public education, which are treated elsewhere in this analysis, the efforts of the Department will be directed toward increased compliance with those laws which prohibit the interference with basic civil rights, including the rio;ht to vote and the use of public accommodations and facilities. The Department will also coordinate other Federal agencies enforcement of title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act which prohibits discrimination in federally assisted programs. In 1973 the Justice Department will allocate additional resources for litigation to protect the civil rights of citizens whose rights have been violated under color of law, including special protections for migrant workers, prison inmates, and American Indians. A new unit has also been established concerned with civil litigation involving injustices and substandard conditions in correctional institutions, mental hospitals, and juvenile homes. The voting rights program continues to involve investigations and litigation to secure to all citizens the right to register and vote without discrimination or intimidation. In addition, all proposed changes affecting voting which are submitted to the Attorney General under the Voting Rights Act must be investigated, reviewed, and adjudicated SPECIAL ANALYSES 219 in the Department of Justice. More than 1,000 such changes were received in the past year. In support of the voting rights program, the Civil Service Commission provides personnel to prepare and maintain lists of eligible voters and to observe election procedures in States or other political subdivisions designated by the Attorney General. The Commission receives complaints, hears and determines challenges, and assists in the defense of challenge cases filed in the U.S. circuit courts of appeals. In 1973, the Commission will spend $1 million to assist in this responsibility. The coordination by the Justice Department of the title VI requirements of agency grant programs will in 1973 continue to emphasize, in addition to litigation, the monitoring of title VI operations in 22 departments and agencies. This coordination should result in a continuing improvement of title VI enforcement. Civil rights program direction, research, and information dissemination.—Expenditures grouped in this category of program concern include all moneys for the direction and management of civil rights activities not counted elsewhere as well as Federal research and information dissemination efforts similarly unaccounted for. Outlays will increase in this area by 20% to $7 million in 1973. • Legislation is being proposed for the Commission on Civil Rights to: —expand its jurisdiction to cover sex discrimination; —extend the Commission for 5 years; and —remove the present limitation on its appropriations. Commission efforts will also increase through central staff and State advisory committee activities in California, Hawaii, New York, and Washington focusing on the problems of AsianAmericans. • The Women's Bureau, Department of Labor, will devote $1.4 million to questions and issues relating to the utilization of womanpower and the economic, legal, and civil status of women. Priority is given to programs for improving the economic position of women who are economically and socially deprived, especially minority women and youth. The Bureau works with appropriate State, national, international, local, and union organizations, and concerned individuals in achieving its goals. • The Cabinet Committee on Opportunities for Spanish-Speaking People, created by statute in 1969 to advise on the particular needs and problems of the Spanish-speaking, has been allocated a 42% increase in funds in the coming year and will open two field offices. Civil rights conciliation and prevention of disputes.— The Community Relations Service of the Department of Justice was established by title X of the Ciril Rights Act of 1964 to provide assistance to communities in resolving difficulties arising from discriminatory practices which disrupt or threaten to disrupt peaceful relations among citizens. It also seeks to aid efforts being made to eliminate disparities between groups, to achieve compliance with the act, and to reduce and prevent racial tensions. The Service actively cooperates with appropriate Federal, State, and local agencies, private 220 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 and public groups, and individuals on methods and programs for the peaceful resolution of racial disputes. In 1973, the Service will spend $6.5 million, an increase of 13%, to enlarge the number of State governments and agencies assisted; to expand to 42 the number of major urban centers served; and to augment its conciliation, mediation, and technical assistance programs. Indians.—The policy of the Federal Government relating to American Indians is set forth in the message sent to the Congress on July 8, 1970. "Federal termination errs in one direction, Federal paternalism errs in the other. Only by clearly rejecting both of the^e extremes can we achieve a policy which truly serves the best interests of the Indian people. Self-determination among the Indian people can and must be encouraged without the threat of eventual termination/' The policy of self-determination—solutions to local Indian problems by Indians—is being fostered. This includes tribes taking over the services on reservations previously performed by the Government as well as the participation of tribes in the development of the initial 1973 budget program considered by the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA), Department of the Interior. The BIA budget provides about 50% of the funds that go to Indians on reservations. • Expenditures to protect the basic civil rights of Indians will increase by 25% in the Office of the Solicitor, Department of the Interior. Twenty-seven man-years will be devoted in 1973 to providing legal services to BIA and to complying with the requirements of the Civil Rights Act of 1968. • The National Council on Indian Opportunity, which serves as a direct communications link between the Indian people and appropriate officials of the U.S. Government, will: —encourage full use of Federal programs to benefit Indians; —encourage interagency coordination and cooperation; —measure impact and progress of Federal programs; and —suggest ways to improve such programs. This section also includes other expenditures on Indian programs. In 1973, these programs will have outlays of approximately $1.2 billion and support the economic and social development of American Indians on reservations. Minority business enterprise.—The moneys and programs discussed in this section aim to broaden economic participation on the part of minorities to permit them to take their rightful place in society. Outlays for minority business enterprise are designed to increase minority business opportunities. Expenditures result primarily from grants, loans, loan guarantees, and the provision of special opportunities to minority entrepreneurs to provide goods, labor, and services to either Federal agencies or contractors. The Office of Minority Business Enterprise (OMBE) was created in the Department of Commerce on March 6, 1969 (Executive Order 11458), to coordinate all Federal programs wfrch could be of assistance to minorities who seek to establish or expand businesses. It offers advisory services and counseling and serves as a clearinghouse for all information relating to minority enterprise. SPECIAL ANALYSES 221 To promote equality of minority access to business opportunities and resources, OMBE stimulates the development of new areas of assistance for minority business formation and strengthening both in the public and private sectors. OMBE's scope was broadened on October 13, 1971 (Executive Order 11625), to include grant and contract authority to local and national business development organizations. Program development and management expenditures wffl grow fivefold from $2.0 million in 1971 to an estimated $10.6 million in 1973. The new minority business development management and technical assistance funds are expected to expand similarly—from expenditures of $6.8 million in 1972 to $30 million in 1973. Funding for OMBE efforts will total $63.6 million next year. Other expenditures for minority business development include: • Outlays of $1.9 million in 1973 by the Small Business Administration to administer section 8(a) of the Small Business Act. This unique procurement tool permits SBA to obtain procurement contracts from other Federal agencies and to award subcontracts for the performance of these contracts to the minority or disadvantaged to help them become owners of self-sustaining manufacturing, construction, and other related service enterprises. SBA expects to expand the contracts negotiated from an estimated 1,600 worth $100 million in 1972 to 2,500 worth $175 million in 1973. Companies assisted will rise from 900 to l,200.3 • SBA will have more than $336 million in loans and loan guarantees obligated in 1973 for minority business development and expects to award $5 million worth of contracts for management and technical assistance. • The Department of Commerce, outside of OMBE, will fund a projected $41.7 million worth of grants to minority enterprises and obligate an estimated $4.9 million in development loans in 1973. • The Office of Economic Opportunity will spend $27.7 million in grants for minority economic development projects next year. • The Department of Agriculture will provide a projected $24.9 million in farm ownership and operating loans and $2.7 million in grants and advisory services to aid minority agricultural enterprises. • The Department of Housing and Urban Development will spend in 1973 $22.9 million to provide business opportunities arising through Model Cities grants. • The Department of Interior will make business development loans to Indians, Eskimos, and Aleuts of more than $6.5 million in 1973. The Indian tribal grants program is expected to increase from $28 million in 1971 to $70 million in 1973. Tribes and Indian groups will be compensated in larger amounts as they provide basic social services and property management functions previously performed by the Federal Government. • The Department of Labor will assist approximately 450 minorityowned businesses with on-the-job training contracts totaling more than $15 million in 1973. 3 All Federal procurement from minorities under Section 8(a) is reported under the lead agency, SBA. 222 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 • Forty-three minority enterprise small business investment corporations (MESBIC's) have been licensed since 1969 with a total private capitalization of $11.6 million. With the provision of Federal matching funds, this produces total capital of more than $34 million. MESBIC's provide venture capital to expand the range of financing opportunities available to minority enterprises. This administration has also proposed legislation to increase the Federal funding opportunities available to MESBIC's by amending the Small Business Investment Act of 1958. Total funding for minority business enterprise programs will increase by 15% to an estimated $715.9 million in 1973. Outlays for program management are expected to aggregate $12.5 million and for technical assistance grants $139 million. Obligations for loans and loan guarantees will amount to $340 million and $14.3 million respectively. Procurement from minorities will grow to more than $210 million. In the aggregate, efforts to assist minority business development will expand 236% between 1969 and 1973. Minority bank deposits.—Between September 30, 1970, when the Administration began a combined Government/private sector program to increase deposit balances in minority banks by $100 million, and December 31, 1971, deposits in the Nation's 37 minority banks increased by $242.2 million, an expansion of 61%. This program, under the direction of the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department respectively, has provided these banks with $80 million in additional lending resources. The Federal Government contributed approximately $70 million of this increase. Deposits are expected to increase further in 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 223 Table N-3—FEDERAL CIVIL RIGHTS OUTLAYS BY DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY (in millions of dollars) 1971 1972 1973 Civil rights enforcement: 1 Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Treasury Department Atomic Energy Commission Cabinet Committee on Opportunities for Spanish-Speaking People ___ Civil Rights Commission Civil Service Commission 2 Environmental Protection Administration Equal Employment Opportunity Commission Federal Communications Commission General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service Veterans Administration Other Independent Agencies Subtotal 3.60 .80 11.00 78.30 6.08 .82 28.72 5.02 .02 2.07 .25 1.32 3.91 .90 29.00 134.80 6. 74 1.65 38.00 6.80 .05 2.70 .58 1.53 5.00 1.20 38.60 413.00 10.00 2.59 42.00 6.50 .05 3.38 .66 1.90 .59 3.17 28.20 .31 15.75 .20 .87 .24 1.36 .79 .26 .92 3.56 31.60 .44 21.70 .30 1.96 .48 1.43 .87 1.70 1.20 4.41 33.40 .43 29.50 .30 3.29 .53 1.54 .90 1.72 189.74 291.62 602.10 43.20 45.58 305.50 62.60 418.40 59.50 58.40 296.60 97.21 57.56 59.07 366.48 71.00 528.60 67.80 42.30 443.20 117.70 57.90 91.70 385.81 89.80 570.00 68.85 48.50 518.20 127.22 Minority assistance program: 3 Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development Department of Interior Department of Labor Office of Economic Opportunity Small Business Administration4 Other independent agencies Subtotal 1,386.99 1,753.71 1,957.98 Total 1,576.73 2,045.33 2,560.08 1 2 Civil rights enforcement programs guarantee and protect the basic civil rights as defined by law. All Federal service equal employment opportunity outlays are reported under the lead agency, Civil Service Commission. 3 Minority assistance programs broaden opportunities for economic participation and selfdetermination, including Indian programs. 4 All Federal procurement from minorities through Section 8(a) of the Small Business Act is reported under the lead agency, Small Business Administration. CONCLUSION The civil rights programs of the Federal Government are manyfaceted. They range from the legal assurances of nondiscrimination to provision of employment and business opportunities. The steady expansion in the resources dedicated to these efforts is evidence of the intent to continue progress toward making equal opportunity a reality for all Americans. SPECIAL ANALYSIS O FEDERAL PROGRAMS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME The Federal crime reduction program is a combination of direct action on the Federal level and support for criminal justice systems at the State and local level. The objective is to generate a comprehensive, cooperative, and effective national response to the crime problem by all elements of the total criminal justice system. This analysis reflects, therefore. Federal enforcement and correction activities, that portion of judicial functions related to the criminal justice process, Federal research into the causes of crime and the means of controlling it, and Federal support of State and local crime reduction programs. Illicit drug traffic and organized crime are special targets of Federal law enforcement efforts, and these efforts are being intensified, with special attention to specific crimes at the local level. In the drug area, increased emphasis is being directed at the breakup of local drug distribution networks. Also, local governments are being encouraged to develop, with Federal technical and financial assistance, programs targeted to those specific crime situations where analysis indicates a concentrated effort can produce significant results in the reduction of crime. ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF THE PAST YEAR During the past year a number of actions have been taken to improve the effectiveness of the criminal justice system. Events of particular importance were: • The Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention was established in the Executive Office of the President to develop overall Federal strategy for drug abuse prevention, education, treatment, rehabilitation, training, and research programs in all Federal agencies. • New initiatives undertaken in the fight against drug abuse include expansion of the drug treatment and rehabilitation programs within the Veterans Administration and Department of Defense, increased funding for narcotics enforcement by the Departments of Justice and Treasury, and efforts to secure international cooperation in suppressing illegal drug traffic. • A national conference on corrections was convened in Williamsburg, Va., to analyze corrections problems and recommend specific approaches for improving correctional programing. Proposed by the Attorney General was a prison reform program, which will include minority hiring, intensive education programs for offenders, and creation of a National Corrections Academy as a center for correctional research, education and training for Federal, State, and local correctional personnel. • A computerized system was established to enable Federal, State, and local law enforcement agencies to obtain criminal 224 SPECIAL ANALYSES 225 history records in minutes over the FBI's National Crime Information Center communications network. In addition to personal identification information, the file shows arrest charges, the disposition of each case, sentencing details, and custody and supervision status. The purpose of the new system is to coordinate efficiently the exchange of criminal history information between computerized State information systems and Federal agencies. • An interdepartmental council was named to plan the coordination of all Federal juvenile delinquency programs. Established under amendments to the Juvenile Delinquency Prevention and Control Act of 1968, the council is composed of representatives of Federal agencies with responsibilities for administering juvenile delinquency programs. • The Omnibus Crime Control Act of 1970 strengthens State and local correctional programs by requiring that a fixed portion of grants made by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration be used for improvements in correctional activities. The act provides for a variety of improvements in Federal law enforcement, including reorganization of the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration, increased protection for the President and members of Congress, and creation of a Wiretap Commission. • The National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals was formed to carry out a complete study of the Nation's criminal justice system. The Commission will establish national goals, performance standards, and priorities to help all criminal justice planners in the nation. The study is expected to take 1 year. Table 0-1. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY AGENCY * (in thousands of dollars) Agency The Judiciary Executive Office of the President Office of Economic Opportunity Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housingand Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Atomic Energy Commission General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service Veterans Administration Other independent agencies Total Federal outlays 1 Does not include Department of Defense—Military. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—72 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Outlays 1971 Actual 60,703 15,500 4,511 800 4,551 98,510 17,228 22,916 742,641 14,373 53,598 38,958 167,894 104 38,513 1,342 32,654 37,560 399 1,352,755 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 76,132 96,194 2,800 6,500 18,200 21,500 4,665 4,665 1,100 1,100 4,605 4,749 166,197 204,428 26,450 34,465 25,104 27,309 1,043,907 1,277,454 32,700 43,300 141,771 141,771 51,497 42,887 228,592 250,856 43,551 987 39,054 66,034 255 42,068 350 42,922 77,753 262 1,973,601, 2,320,533 226 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 1973 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS The 1973 budget provides for outlays of $2,321 million related to reduction of crime, an increase of $347 million over comparable expenditures in 1972 and $968 million more than 1971 outlays. It is estimated that expenditures for crime reduction programs at all levels of government—Federal, State, and local—will exceed $17 billion in 1973. Of the $2,321 million of Federal outlays in 1973, $923 million or 40% of the total will directly support State and local crime reduction activities. In 1972, 36% of Federal expenditures assisted State and local governments in this area; in 1971, 3 1 % were devoted to this purpose. In dollar terms, the increase in 1973 is $218 million more than Federal outlays directed to State and local law enforcement in 1972. Application of resources to the reduction of the illicit drug traffic, a major contributor to crime in America, will be expanded throughout the full range of Federal programs. The Departments of Justice and Treasury will give special emphasis to combatting the manufacture, distribution and smuggling of illicit narcotics and dangerous drugs. A total of $273 million will be spent on all Federal narcotics enforcement programs in 1973. In addition, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Veterans Administration and Office of Economic Opportunity will conduct significantly expanded drug treatment and rehabilitation programs. Outlays for this purpose will be approximately $162 million in 1973. Another aspect of the Federal Government's fight against drug abuse involves suppression of the cultivation, refinement, and distribution of illicit narcotics abroad. Outlays of $36 million in 1973, compared to $12 million in 1972, will support international drug control. CRIME REDUCTION PROGRAM BY ACTIVITIES The budget outlays reported by this special analysis cover all domestic Federal programs directly related to or closely associated with crime reduction, except outlays associated with military programs of the Defense Department. The analysis also includes estimated costs of the criminal adjudication function of the judiciary. It excludes general social programs, even though such programs may indirectly reduce crime, unless they are clearly within the context of crime reduction or prevention, e.g., vocational training of prisoners, treatment of juvenile delinquents. Also, the analysis does not include background investigations for employment, administrative inspections, or investigations primarily of a regulatory nature which may in rare cases result in the application of criminal sanctions. Where activities involve both civil and criminal proceedings, e.g., operation of courts, an allocation of outlays to the criminal function has been estimated. Crime research and statistics.—Crime research and statistics encompass Federal activities designed to produce data and information concerning crime, criminals, and the criminal justice system. Also included are programs to develop improved methods and techniques for operation of the criminal justice system. • Over $70 million of Federal funds will be expended for crime research and statistics in 1973, as compared with $46 million in 1971 and $31 million in 1972. Total outlays in 1973 consist of $25 million for statistical activities and $45 million for research. SPECIAL ANALYSES 227 Table 0-2. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND SELECTED ACTIVITY * (in thousands of dollars) Outlays Major program and selected activity Crime research and statistics: Statistics on crime, criminals, and criminal justice system.__ Research on criminal behavior and sociology of crime Program total Reform of criminal laws Services for prevention of crime: Public education on law observance, enforcement and crime prevention Special programs for rehabilitation of alcoholics and narcotics. Prevention and control of juvenile delinquency Development of other community crime prevention services. Program total Federal criminal law enforcement: Enforcement in support of Federal systems General Federal law enforcement Federal police Specialized activities against organized crime Support for Federal law enforcement Program total Assistance to State and local police activities: Intelligence and information systems Education and training of enforcement officers Laboratory support General police activities Control of civil disorders Combating organized crime Other Program total Administration of criminal justice: Conduct of Federal criminal prosecutions Operation and support of Federal court systems Assistance to States and localities for improved administration of justice Other supporting programs Criminal defense for the poor Program total Rehabilitation of offenders: Operation of Federal correctional institutions Federal probation, parole and community treatment Federal inmate education and training Federal inmate medical treatment Other programs supporting Federal corrections Assistance to States and localities for improved correctional programs '_ Program total Planning and coordination of crime reduction programs Total Federal outlays 1 Does not include Department of Defense—Military. 1971 actual 1972 estimate ~~ 1973 estimate 7,545 23,122 13,070 32,960 25,363 44,720 30,667 46,030 70,083 1,293 1,835 2,313 10,705 57,749 45,409 24,998 17,815 133,432 65,636 37,606 22,627 161,894 80,967 46,789 138,861 254,489 312,277 236,448 288,397 56,526 66,577 27,939 257,833 468,457 68,885 82,681 35,634 262,929 480,293 70,255 86,600 33,195 675,887 913,490 933,272 10,052 61,913 9,398 53,562 4,673 7,524 6,834 17,736 87,302 14,740 74,260 7,537 12,446 11,497 24,358 111, 203 18,074 86,015 9,357 15,454 14,624 153,956 225,518 279,085 29,018 56,441 35,168 71,261 41,008 83,221 17,905 682 5,854 29,482 742 12,524 37,725 1,310 13,527 109,900 149,177 176,791 85,124 18,486 6,943 12,491 5,220 106,076 19,664 8,750 14,996 9,591 152,827 27,467 9,045 15,826 14,446 85,149 186,697 264,055 213,413 345,774 483,666 28,778 37,288 63,046 1,352,755 1,973,601 2,320,533 228 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 • The National Bureau of Standards within the Department of Commerce, in cooperation with the National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice within LEAA, will continue development of law enforcement equipment standards in order to advise police departments on criteria for purchasing equipment. • The Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs is continuing research to identify new esoteric material appearing in illicit traffic, facilitate identification of the source of legitimate drugs diverted into illegal markets, perfect equipment for remote detection of illicit drug manufacturing, and develop new analytical methods for the analysis of abusable substances. • The Federal Aviation Administration is continuing research and development projects to perfect automated techniques for detection of weapons and explosives aboard aircraft and identification of potential hijackers. • The Law Enforcement Assistance Administration will begin publication of estimates of the incidence and socioeconomic cost of crime as determined by the National Crime Panel. Efforts will also be directed to developing comprehensive data centers on criminal justice statistics in the States. Reform of criminal laws.—Criminal law reform includes Government efforts to improve the effectiveness of the Nation's laws. • Total outlays for reform of criminal laws will be $2.3 million in 1973. Over $1.9 million of this amount will support projects to reform State and local laws. • The Department of Justice is evaluating the recommendations of the National Commission on Reform of Federal Criminal Laws and will submit legislation to provide both substantive and procedural reforms in 1973. • There will be established during 1973 a Commission on the Review of the National Policy Toward Gambling, pursuant to the Organized Crime Control Act of 1970. The purpose of the Commission is to study Federal, State, and local policy and practices with respect to gambling activities and to recommend codification, revision, or repeal of existing statutes pertaining to gambling. • Twenty-four States and three island possessions have now adopted the Uniform Controlled Dangerous Substance Act. Efforts will continue within the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs to foster enactment by as many States as possible. • The Department of Justice has drafted a Model State Explosives Act which has been submitted to the Council of State Governments for approval. The proposal is designed to reflect the regulatory pattern created by the recently enacted Federal explosives law. Prevention of crime.—Crime prevention includes Government efforts to limit or render less probable the commission of criminal acts by means other than direct enforcement or general correctional activities. Included are public education, alcoholic and drug addict rehabilitation, treatment of juvenile delinquents, and projects to improve policecommunity relations. SPECIAL ANALYSES 229 • Outlays of $312 million will be devoted to crime prevention programs in 1973. This expenditure represents an increase of $58 million over 1972 and 550% over the outlay level in 1969. • The Office of Education in the Department of HEW is strengthening its program to improve the education of delinquent children in institutions with the objective of returning these children to their communities with a better attitude toward themselves, their parents, school, and work. • The Veterans Administration will open up to 12 additional drug dependence units and 15 additional alcoholism treatment units. The goal is to offer treatment and rehabilitation services to an estimated 20,000 addicts in the 44 special treatment units to be operated in 1973. A total of 7,500 veterans will be treated for alcoholism. • The Special Action Office for Drug Abuse Prevention will develop a national strategy for the reduction of drug addiction and drug abuse by developing drug abuse programs, setting program goals and objectives, formulating policies and standards for operating agencies, and evaluating the performance of all drug abuse programs. • The Bureau of Prisons will operate the former Public Health hospital at Fort Worth as the sixth Federal institution offering drug treatment in addition to other rehabilitation programs. Early indicators of progress with specialized treatment efforts point to substantial success in deterring a return to criminal activity by inmates designated as high-risk offenders. Federal criminal law enforcement and Federal police.—Law enforce* ment involves direct Federal Government efforts to detect, identify, and apprehend violators of criminal laws. Representative programs include criminal investigations, policing of certain Federal areas, and special concerted programs against organized crime, and illicit narcotics trafficking. • Expenditures of $933 million will support Federal investigative and police activities in 1973. This compares with total outlays of $913 million in 1972 and $676 million in 1971 for this purpose. • The Criminal Division of the Department of Justice returned indictments against 2,122 defendants in organized crime cases in 1971, mainly through use of organized crime strike forces operating in 17 cities. Expanded resources applied to this program in 1973 are expected to produce increased indictments. • Resources of Federal and local governments will be combined to mount an intensive effort in 24 major cities against the street and mid-level traffic in illegal drugs and narcotics. • The Internal Revenue Service will conduct over 7,000 tax fraud investigations in 1973 and will continue to enforce the revenue laws related to alcohol, tobacco, and firearms. Special emphasis will be given to suppression of illicit drugs through investigations of drug traffickers. • The U.S. Marshals Service will improve its ability to conduct operations through installation of a modern communications network connecting deputy marshals with central offices and linking the 93 Marshals with the Department of Justice. 230 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 • Increased resources will be directed to the Joint State-Federal Narcotics Task Force in New York City. During 1971, its first full year of operation, 110 drug-related arrests were made by the task force, which is aimed at middle-level traffickers. • The Treasury Department will spend $6 million for further construction of the $53 million training center at Beltsville, Md. The facility is expected to be operational by 1975 and will provide recruit, advanced, specialized, and refresher training for over 8,500 students each year from participating Federal enforcement agencies. • The National Park Service will enlarge the training curriculum for Park Rangers to reflect the expanding role of the Ranger in law enforcement, accident investigation, and fire suppression. • The Immigration and Naturalization Service expects to apprehend an estimated 455,000 deportable aliens in 1973, a substantial increase over the 400,000 illegal aliens located in 1971. In addition, Border Patrol agents seized 48,500 pounds of marihuana, over 50 pounds of heroin and cocaine, and 750,000 capsules of dangerous drugs in 1971. It is anticipated that narcotics seizures by INS agents will increase by one-third in 1973. • An Indian Police Academy is being operated by the Bureau of Indian Affairs to train Federal and tribal officers performing enforcement duties. Approximately 300 officers will attend a 10 week course of instruction in 1973. • Under authority of the Water Quality Improvement Act of 1970, the Coast Guard will enforce regulations governing discharge of oil from vessels by boarding and inspecting ships in U.S. navigable waters. • The Securities and Exchange Commission will continue its investigation of persons suspected of organized crime activities who appear to be involved in manipulation of the securities markets and the illegal use of investment companies registered under foreign jurisdiction. • As a result of recent legislation, the investigative activities of the U.S. Postal Service in 1973 will reflect increased enforcement responsibilities concerning shipment of narcotics and dangerous drugs and broader investigation of bombs and bomb threats. Assistance to State and local police.—Included in this category are Federal efforts to provide or improve activities which support or upgrade State and local police and investigative agencies. • Outlays of $279 million will be devoted to assisting State and local law enforcement activities in 1973, an increase of $54 million over 1972 and $125 million over 1971. Approximately $111 million will be spent to train State and local police and $15 million will support State and local efforts against organized crime. • The bulk of Federal assistance to State and local law enforcement will be provided by the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration. In 1973 LEAA will award block grants of $480 million to finance programs selected by State planning agencies. Additional grants will be awarded for technological improvements, collection of statistics, and development and implementation of statewide SPECIAL ANALYSES • • • • 231 plans. Moreover, law enforcement education program funds will provide loans and stipends to approximately 100,000 State and local policemen, court employees, and correctional personnel. LEAA discretionary grants to States and localities will be made in support of a concentrated attack on urban crime—homicide, rape, robbery, and burglary—in eight selected cities. The program will stress the achievement of an early and significant impact on crime by the development of new techniques and strategies which can be adopted in other urban areas. Several Federal investigative agencies offer training to State and local police. In 1973 the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs will train over 85,000 police officers, and the FBI will graduate approximateJy 2,000 State and local police from the National Academy and other specialized courses at Quantico, Va. During 1973 an estimated 89,000 persons will be enrolled in vocational education classes in Law Enforcement Training and Police Science Technology, supported by $3.6 million in grants from the Office of Education in HEW. In cooperation with experts in the field of law enforcement, the Veterans Administration has developed a model on-the-job training program for policemen, leading to a journeyman's status for the trainee. In 1973, 20,000 participants are expected to attend State training programs patterned after this model. Administration of criminal justice.—This category includes the preparation and prosecution of criminal cases, operation of court systems, trial of cases, provision of defense counsel in certain cases, and related activities. • Expenditures of $177 million will be applied to the administration of criminal justice and the prosecution of criminal cases in 1973, including $38 million to assist State and local court systems. Operation of the Federal courts will require outlays of $83 million and $41 million will be spent to conduct criminal prosecutions. • In 1973 U.S. attorneys will file over 53,000 criminal cases, terminate an estimated 49,200 cases, handle 201,000 criminal complaints, and conduct over 35,000 proceedings before grand juries. • The U.S. Marshal Service will support the administration of criminal justice by serving an estimated 350,000 processes, executing over 27,000 warrants, and transporting approximately 40,000 prisoners. Marshals will continue to preserve order in Federal courtrooms, as well as insure the safety of judges, juries, and witnesses. • The Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs will expand its program of training State prosecutors to handle cases under the newly enacted State Uniform Controlled Substances Acts. • The Federal court system will increase the level of its support personnel by almost 20% in order to expedite an expanded caseload in 1973. Rehabilitation oj offenders.—These programs include Government custody and rehabilitation of criminal offenders. Included are the supervision and operation of correctional institutions, inmate and 232 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 offender treatment and training programs, probation and parole services, and other supportive functions. • Outlays for rehabilitation of offenders are projected at $484 million in 1973, as compared with $346 million in 1972 and $213 million in 1971. Of the 1973 total, $264 million will be allocated to State and local correctional programs, an increase of 4 1 % over the 1972 level and 210% over the 1971 figure. • In 1973 the Bureau of Prisons plans to have construction underway on five metropolitan correctional centers (New York, Chicago, San Diego, Philadelphia/New Jersey, and San Francisco), a behavorial research center at Butner, N.C., and a West Coast Youth complex. In addition, planning and site acquisition will proceed for four future facilities. • A variety of programs designed to assist offender rehabilitation will be conducted by the Office of Education in HEW. Included are programs which fund the training of adult education personnel working in correctional institutions, support vocational training for inmates in State institutions, and provide library services for correctional activities. • The Law Enforcement Assistance Administration will award grants totaling $261 million for support of State and local correctional activities in 1973, as compared to $88 million in 1971. Funding will take the form of block action grants, discretionary grants, and grants earmarked for correctional programs. • The Department of Labor will spend $40 million to finance ongoing offender rehabilitation projects and to initiate a new comprehensive correctional program which will assist States in coordinating available Federal and State resources for trainees. Planning and coordination.—Included in this category are outlays supporting State and local planning and coordination of crime reduction activities. • Expenditures of $63 million are provided for planning and coordination of federally-supported crime reduction programs in 1973. The major Federal agency involved in this activity is the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration. SPECIAL ANALYSES 233 Table 0-3. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND AGENCY * (in thousands of dollars) Outlays Major program and agency 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Crime research and statistics: The Judiciary Office of Economic Opportunity Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Justice Department of Transportation Atomic Energy Commission National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service Program total 145 1,600 11 5,435 20,629 660 104 1,342 741 292 1,700 12 5,478 36,058 953 360 1,500 12 9,557 56,875 1,200 987 550 350 229 30,667 46,030 70,083 1,132 161 1,835 2,313 1,293 1,835 2,313 13,900 93 55,692 13,619 538 43,932 454 60 10,573 16,500 96 110,682 22,500 629 73,072 350 64 30,596 20,000 98 128,872 28,250 661 94,550 1,000 70 38,776 138,861 254,489 312,277 4,511 800 3,654 19,300 314,419 3,265 53,598 37,842 167,894 38,513 31,853 238 4,665 1,100 3,764 20,604 377,256 3,300 141,771 50,192 228,592 43,551 38,440 255 4,665 1,100 3,871 21,672 380,399 3,300 141,771 40,685 250,856 42,068. 42,623 262 675,887 913,490 933,272 2,555 1,416 122,998 26,987 3,055 1,671 185,354 35,438 3,655 1,963 234,490 38,977 153,956 225,518 279,085 Reform of Criminal laws: Department of Justice... Other independent agencies Program total Services for prevention of crime: Office of Economic Opportunity Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Transportation Postal Service Veterans Administration _ Program total Federal criminal law enforcement: Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Civil Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury General Services Administration Postal Service . Other independent agencies Program total.... _ _ __._ Assistance to States and local police activities: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of the Interior Department of Justice Veterans Administration Program total 234 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table 0-3. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR THE REDUCTION OF CRIME BY MAJOR PROGRAM AND AGENCY * (in thousands of dollars)—Continued Outlays Major program and selected activity 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Administration of criminal justice: The Judiciary Department of Department of Department of Department of Department of Defense—Civil Health, Education, and Welfare the Interior Justice Transportation Program total.._ _.. 45,170 59 685 833 63,151 2 59,702 68 685 1,136 87,584 2 72,476 72 1,235 1,377 101,629 2 109,900 149,177 176,791 15,388 734 34,143 3,609 829 147,602 11,108 16,138 665 46,297 3,950 1,064 248,260 29,400 13,358 696 61,109 6,215 1,636 350,652 40,000 213,413 345,774 483,666 28,778 2,800 34,488 6,500 56,546 28,778 37,288 63,046 1,352,755 1,973,601 2,320,533 Rehabilitation of offenders: The Judiciary Department of Department of Department of Department of Department of Department of „ Defense—Civil Health, Education, and Welfare Housing and Urban Development the Interior Justice Labor____ Program total Planning and coordination of crime reduction programs: Executive Office of the President Department of Justice Program total..__ Total Federal outlays 1 Does not include Department of Defense—Military. SPECIAL ANALYSES 235 Table 0-4. SELECTED CRIME REDUCTION DATA (dollars in thousands) Federal outlays for crime reduction: Federal crime reduction outlays assisting States and localities—.. . . Federal crime reduction outlays for reduction of Federal crimes Total Federal outlays for reduction of crime 1969 1970 $103,739 $177,251 $414,773 554,614 679,665 937,982 658,353 856,916 1,352, 755 Federal personnel: Full-time Federal criminal investigators 1 12,818 14,610 U.S. attorneys and assistant attorneys (man-years on criminal workload) 560 630 Attorneys—Criminal Division (man-years) 168 190 U.S. district court judgeships 341 402 2 State and local crimes: Serious crimes recorded (UCR—table 2) 5,001,400 5,568,200 Violent crimes recorded (UCR-table 2) 655, 100 731,400 Rate of serious crimes per 100,000 inhabitants (UCR— table 2) 2,477 2,740 Rate of violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants (UCR— table 2) 324 360 Percent index crimes cleared by arrest (UCR—table 13) _ _ _ _20.6 21.0 Percent found guilty of persons charged by police (UCR— table 15) 65.5 66.8 Federal investigations: FBI, investigative matters received 859,666 882,254 Immigration and Naturalization Service (investigations completed) 11,394 12,794 Postal Service, criminal caseload 200,812 211,166 IRS, tax fraud investigations 8,135 7,711 Bureau of Customs (cases closed) 28,175 32,040 Secret Service (cases closed) 79,892 99,390 Disposition of Federal criminal matters: Investigative matters presented for prosecutive decision— prosecution declined 83,608 89,139 Federal criminal cases commenced 5 33,585 38,102 Federal criminal cases terminated 5 30,578 34,962 Federal criminal cases pending 5 17,770 20,910 6 Federal criminal cases pending over 6 months 5,078 5,710 Federal criminal defendants convicted 29,450 29,005 High echelon organized crime figures convicted 29 33 Corrections: Average Federal jail population 3,866 4,284 Average Federal prison population 20,239 20,687 Court commitments to Federal institutions 11,162 11,060 Average Federal prison sentences (months) 45. 2 46.8 Persons under supervision of Federal probation system (end of year) 36,985 38,409 Federal paroles granted _ _ 5,445 5,142 Warrants issued for violation of conditions of release from prison 2,521 2,369 Executive clemency petitions granted. _ _ 96 1 2 3 4 1971 15,489 712 239 402 (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (3) 828,059 4 12,618 510,220 6,866 37,995 104,743 94,032 41,290 37,715 24,485 6,202 34,579 61 4,733 20,949 13,327 47.0 42,549 5,851 2,044 173 CSC jobs classified in series 1811 as of October 31. From FBI uniform crime report, calendar year 1970. Not available. Represents a new workload reporting system which reflects individual complaints in a specific 5 Excludes transfers. Excludes pending cases of fugitives. 0 PART 3 SPECIALIZED ASPECTS AND VIEWS OF FEDERAL PROGRAMS 237 INTRODUCTION Part S discusses trends and developments in selected areas of Government activity—aid to State and local governments, public works, research and development, and environmental quality. It groups four special analyses, those designated P through S. Special Analysis P summarizes Federal grants to State and local governments as well as loans and indirect assistance. It traces the development of Federal aids over time and relates them to the finances of both the Federal Government and State and local governments. This analysis also provides a profile of Federal grants by region, and that portion benefiting metropolitan areas. Special Analysis Q brings together information on Federal construction and federally aided State and local public works. It also includes information on major Federal programs affecting construction by private cooperative and nonprofit groups. Special Analysis R identifies Federal programs for the conduct of research and development, and for facilities related to such activities. Special Anayl&is S identifies Federal funding for selected environmental activities, including pollution control and abatement, environmental protection and enhancement, sewer and water programs, and understanding, describing and predicting the environment. 238 SPECIAL ANALYSIS P FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Federal Aid to State and Local Governments 15 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Fiscal Years 1973 Estimate HIGHLIGHTS OF THE 1973 AID PROGRAM In 1973, Federal aid to State and local governments will total $43.8 billion. This amount will be $4.4 billion more than in 1972— a 12% increase in 1 year, and five times the amount in 1963. Since 1968, major progress has been made in restructuring Federal aid programs to increase their flexibility and effectiveness. Proposals in the President's 1973 legislative program call for even greater changes : • Sharing Federal revenues with State and local governments in the form of unrestricted General Revenue Sharing, and six broad purpose special revenue sharing programs without matching requirements. 239 240 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 • Reforming the welfare system to provide national eligibility standards, improved work incentives, broadened coverage to the working poor, and eventual fiscal relief to the States. • Strengthening the grant-in-aid delivery system through the Federal Assistance Review program (FAR), including: decentralizing decisionmaking to Federal field offices; and expanding the Integrated Grant Administration program from four to 24 major projects, thus enabling State and local governments to apply for several related grants through a single application. The fastest growing major Federal aid programs in 1973, as in each of the years since 1969, are those related to law enforcement, income support, services for the poor, and environmental protection. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES Federal aid to State and local governments has been a part of the American federal system since the country's earliest days. Under the Articles of Confederation, Congress provided grants of Federal land in 1785 to support education in the Northwest Territory. Although Federal grants have a long history, the major growth in the number of grant programs and amounts of money provided has occurred only in the past two decades. The composition of the total grant program has changed significantly since 1960, as shown in table P - l . The functions comprising human resource programs— education and manpower, health, and income security—show a rapid growth during the 1960-73 period, rising from 47% of Federal aid in 1960 to an expected 55% in 1973. On the other hand, commerce and transportation programs declined from 43% of the total in 1960 to 14% in 1973. Table P-l. PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL AIDS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS BY FUNCTION Function 1950 actual Agriculture and rural development Natural resources and environment Commerce and transportation Community development and housing. Education and manpower Health Income security General revenue sharing Other Total _._ 1955 actual 5 2 21 (*) 11 5 55 1 100 8 3 19 3 14 4 47 2 1960 actual 1965 actual 4 2 43 3 10 4 33 1 100 100 5 2 40 5 10 7 29 2 1970 actual 1973 estimate 3 3 21 11 18 15 26 3 100 100 2 4 14 10 17 11 27 11 4 100 i Less than 0.5%. While Federal grants have been growing, State and local governments presently raise from their own sources about four times the amount of aid they receive from the Federal Government. 241 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table P-2. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, YEARS 1951 AND 1971 Source In billions of dollars 1951 Revenue: Own revenue Federal aid Total Expenditures CALENDAR 1971 ^"ui" P incTc^ 18.8 2.3 114.8 26.9 9.5 13.1 21.1 141.7 10.0 22.3 141.7 9.7 This table is based on the National Income Accounts to permit comparison between levels of government, and differs slightly from the measure of aid used in other parts of this analysis. For a more complete discussion of different measures of aid, see the section on definitions in this analysis. STATE AND LOCAL FISCAL PROBLEMS State and local governments have been faced with critical financial problems in recent years. An imbalance has existed between the need for higher levels of public services and funds available to finance these services. State and local government receipts from their own sources (excluding Federal grants) rose from a war-time low of 4.8% of GNP in 1944 to 11% in 1971, but the need for expanded services and the cost of providing these services rose even faster. State and local governments rely principally on consumer and property taxes, which have not grown at a rate sufficient to keep up with the growth in demand for public services. Thus, States have been forced to raise tax rates frequently—instituting new taxes or raising tax rates in more than 514 instances since 1959, and 64 instances in 1971 alone. These latter actions will augment tax receipts b \ about $5 billion. This is significantly larger than the $1.3 billion and $2.5 billion added to State tax receipts in 1965 and 1967, and the record $4 billion in 1969. It was only through drastic budget cutting, and tax increases, that State and local governments achieved an estimated surplus of $25 million in 1971. The response of the Federal Government to the fiscal problems of State and local governments has been to increase Federal grants from 71 programs and $2 billion in 1950 to 530 programs and $24 billion in 1970. The results have been that while Federal grants have paid for several services previously paid for from State and local revenues, such as a highway network, this rapid growth has been accompanied by many problems, including: • Overlapping programs at the State and local level; • Program delays and uncertainty caused by unnecessarily detailed and costly application requirements; • Unnecessary limitations on the authority and responsibilities of Governors, mayors, county executives, and city managers; • The creation of competitive State and local governmental institutions; and • Rigid funding arrangements which are unable to adjust to changes in priorities over time, such as matching fund requirements. 480-700 O—72 242 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 While Federal grant programs were aimed at problems deemed by their sponsors to be of national interest, they often ignored their impact on the strength and ability of the State and local governments to carry out their own particular responsibilities. REFORM OF THE GRANT SYSTEM In recognition of these problems, the administration has proposed basic reforms in Federal Government programs an,d institutions, and in the structure of Federal aid to State and local governments. These changes embrace three basic concepts: sorting out appropriate governmental roles, improving the basic programs, and modernizing management. Basic reform is being undertaken in such major functional areas as welfare, pollution control, unemployment insurance, and mass transit. The proposed welfare reform should help to alleviate the financial pressures on State and local governments after it is enacted and should provide substantial savings in the long run. It will also be a major step toward reducing poverty in America. An Environmental Financing Authority has been proposed which will assist financing expanded pollution control facilities for those communities which are unable to borrow for this purpose at reasonable interest rates. The administration has also designed the first fundamental reform of the unemployment compensation system since the 1930's. A long-needed overhaul of management processes in Federal aid and other programs is being carried out. The regional boundaries of the major domestic departments of the Federal Government have been modified so that their headquarter cities and the regions that they cover conform. This facilitates cooperation between Federal agencies and makes it easier for grant recipients since the agencies' regional offices are in the same cities. A new Office of Intergovernmental Relations was created in the Office of the Vice President. In order to foster better decisionmaking on the whole range of domestic programs, the administration has established a Domestic Council, which provides a forum for considering all of the various Federal activities and functions that affect the States and their subdivisions, and reorganized the Bureau of the Budget into the Office of Management and Budget. Government operations are being simplified and decentralized in several ways—through revised grant program procedures, through a proposed overhaul of the manpower training programs, and, most importantly, through the introduction of revenue sharing. In the grant area, the administration has also recommended legislation that would: • Authorize the President to consolidate closely related programs; • Simplify funding of those grant programs that are closely related and in the same agency; • Authorize joint funding of projects across agency lines; and • Offer assistance to Governors and mayors in improving their policy planning and implementation capacity in social welfare programs. SPECIAL ANALYSES 243 REVENUE SHARING One of the most innovative and far-reaching reforms of the federal system is the proposal for a program of sharing Federal revenue with State and local governments. In describing the revenue sharing program, the President stated: "The time has come for a new partnership between the Federal Government and the States and localities—a partnership in which we entrust the States and localities with a larger share of the Nation's responsibilities, and in which we share our Federal revenues with them so that they can meet those responsibilities." The major characteristics of the administration's revenue sharing plan are: • A new program of General Revenue Sharing with State and local governments without any program or project restrictions, with the amount granted to grow each year as the personal income tax base of the Federal Government grows; • Six special revenue sharing programs for State and local governments in special broadly defined areas of national concern, without any requirement of matching funds or Federal approval of project plans; and • Maintenance of those existing grant programs for which there is a clear, continuing national requirement. The major features of the General Revenue Sharing proposal are: • Predictability.—The amounts to be shared will be based on 1.3% of the personal income tax base. • Expanding scale.—Because of the natural growth in the base, the absolute amounts are proposed to rise from a budget authority of $5.3 billion and outlays of $5 billion in 1973 to an estimated $10 billion in outlays for 1980. • Unconditional.—Revenue sharing funds will not be tied to specific programs because the funds are for use by State and local governments in accordance with their program priorities. The allocation of funds will be based on formulas prescribed by law and linked to data prepared on a regular basis by the Census Bureau. No costly, time-consuming applications will be required. • Distribution by need and effort.—The amount to be shared with any given State will be based on State population, adjusted for combined State and local revenue effort. States with greater relative revenue effort will get more than they would otherwise. • Guaranteed funds for cities and counties.—To place a minimum guarantee on the share of funds that cities, counties, and townships will receive, the administration's bill stipulates that States must "pass through" to each such local jurisdiction its appropriate share. Special revenue sharing will consist of six broad-purpose programs providing State and local governments with funds for use in the functional area for which they are designated—transportation, education, urban and rural community development, manpower training, and 244 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 law enforcement. The proposed effective dates for two of these programs—education and urban community development—is July 1, 1972. These funds will be distributed on the basis of formulas appropriate for each broad program area. Funds for special revenue sharing will come from the conversion of a set of narrower categorical grants into the new program, and from additional funds requested by the President. Characteristically, the programs recommended for conversion to special revenue sharing deal with high priority national problems which require State and local solutions. In these areas, State and local governments are in a better position to design and implement responsive and effective programs. Eliminating Federal administration of these programs will relieve State and local governments of many Federal requirements—including the elimination of matching requirements on the categorical grants converted to special revenue sharing. Federal civil rights requirements will be retained. Table P-3. REVENUE SHARING, BUDGET AUTHORITY, FIRST FULL YEAR Description Billions General Revenue Sharing Special revenue sharing: Urban community development Rural community development Education Manpower training Law enforcement Transportation $5. 3 2.3 1.1 3.2 2.0 .9 2.8 Total SIGNIFICANT 17.6 FEATURES OF FEDERAL AID IN 1973 Federal aid expenditures for grants and shared revenues will grow from $29.8 billion in 1971 to $43.5 billion in 1973. In addition, there will be an estimated $1.9 billion in loan disbursements resulting in $309 million of net lending to State and local governments. This does not include the lending activity that is being encouraged in the nonFederal sector with Federal interest subsidies and guarantees. In total, Federal aid programs provided about 18% of State and local revenues in 1971, and will provide an even greater percentage in 1972 and 1973. The largest portion of direct Federal aid is administered by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. Due to extreme fiscal pressures on State and local governments, in 1972 the department will make an advance payment to these governments of about $1 billion for welfare payments and services. Apart from direct Federal aid, many other Federal activities that are not included in this analysis affect the finances of State and local governments. For example, the exemption of interest on State and local bonds from Federal income taxes reduced interest costs to State and local governments by $2.0 billion in 1971. This exemption results in about $3.0 billion in "lost" revenues to the U.S. Treasury. Similarly, since taxpayers may deduct State and local taxes from Federal taxable income, a portion of State and local taxes is offset by a reduction in the taxpayers' Federal liability. In 1971, the value of this SPECIAL ANALYSES 245 Table P-4. FEDERAL-AID EXPENDITURES BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Agency Funds Appropriated to the President Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense—Military Department of Defense—Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Environmental Protection Agency Veterans Administration District of Columbia Other Total outlays for Federal aid 1971 1972 1973 1,468.2 3,198.3 184.9 34.2 6.9 14,650.9 2,140.2 296.7 195.8 1,866.1 5.4 4,882.5 143.2 520.0 19.0 139.0 94.0 1,286.4 3,916.0 174.6 36.2 5.0 18,511.6 2,573.7 405.8 361.5 2,918.8 5.7 5,143.5 2,409.9 964.6 21.2 180.0 165.0 1,064.3 4,223.2 206.1 45.6 3.0 17,665.4 3,502. 4 441.8 501.7 3,465.4 7.8 5,524.3 5,169.8 1,178.7 24.4 202.0 253.0 29,844.0 39,079.8 43,478.9 Note.— Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. deduction in terms of tax savings to individuals was approximately $8.5 billion. In addition, in 1971 the Federal Government donated an estimated $405 million in excess property to State and local governments for civil defense, public health, and educational purposes. The Federal Government has also donated Federal land for State and local recreation uses, such as for parks and beaches. It is estimated that between 1971 and 1973 the Federal Government will have donated 40,000 acres, worth over $56 million, to State and local governments. Table P-5. FEDERAL-AID OUTLAYS IN RELATION TO TOTAL FEDERAL OUTLAYS AND TO STATE-LOCAL REVENUE Federal aid As a percent of— Fiscal year Amount (millions) 1959 . 1960 1961 1962 1963 . 1964 . 1965. 1966 1967 _ 1968 . 1969.. . _ 1970.. . . . . . 197L. ._. 1972 estimate __ 1973 estimate.. 1 2 . . . $6,669 7,040 7,112 7,893 8,634 10,141 10,904 12,960 15,240 18,599 20,255 23,954 29,844 39,080 43,479 Total Federal outlays 7.2 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.6 9.2 9.7 9.6 10.4 11.0 12.2 14.1 16.5 17.6 Excluding outlays for defense, space, and international programs. "Governmental Finances in 1969-70," Bureau of the Census. Domestic Federal outlays 1 15.9 16.4 15.4 15.8 16.5 17.9 18.4 19.2 19.5 20.9 21.3 21.9 23.5 25.8 27.0 State-local revenue 2 12.3 11.6 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.4 12.4 13.2 14.2 15.8 15.3 15.9 17.9 21.1 21.1 246 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 THE IMPACT OF FEDERAL AID The rapid increase in Federal aid has become an increasingly important factor in the finances of all levels of government. Federal aid has risen from 7.8% of total Federal outlays in 1963 to an estimated 17.6% in 1973. In terms of civilian domestic programs, 27.0% of Federal outlays will take the form of aids to State and local governments in 1973. Because State and local revenues from their own sources have increased at a much more rapid rate than Federal outlays, the impact of the relative increase in Federal aid has not been quite as marked on their budgets as it has been on the Federal budget. Nevertheless, Federal aid has risen as a proportion of State and local revenues, from 12% in 1960 to an estimated 18% in 1971. The pattern of State and local spending has been influenced by those Federal grants that require the recipient government to match Federal aid funds with its own resources. In 1966, State and local governments provided an estimated $5.5 billion of their own funds to match the $13 billion of Federal grants spent in that year. In the last few years, State and local government matching funds have accounted for about 10% of general expenditures out of their own revenue sources. This could amount to an estimated $11 to $13 billion in 1971, and an estimated $13 to $16 billion in 1973. The elimination of matching requirements for the programs absorbed by special revenue sharing will save State and local governments about $4.2 billion and allow them greater freedom in the use of their resources. In 1970, the distribution of Federal aids on a regional basis ranged from a high of more than $5 billion in the Southeast and Mideast, to a low of $0.77 billion in the Rocky Mountain area. On a per capita basis, however, the Rocky Mountain area ranked highest with grant payments of $154 per capita, while the Great Lakes with $82 and Plains region with $104 per capita were lowest. Population density and per capita income are the two major factors that accounted for this wide variation. Generally, the level of per capita aid is inversely related to population density primarily because of aid for highway construction and shared revenues to thinly populated Western States. The population densit}^ of the Rocky Mountain area is the lowest of the regions, the holdings of Federal lands are extensive and per capita aid is the highest. At the other end of the scale, per capita aid is lower in the regions where population density is greatest, and Federal land holdings are small. SPECIAL ANALYSES 247 Table P-6. REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF FEDERAL AID, FISCAL 1970 Region New England Mideast Great Lakes Plains Southeast Southwest Rocky Mountain Far West United States Total (in millions of dollars) Per capita Percent of State and local government general revenue 1,406 118.65 18.4 5,180 3,329 1,707 5,299 2,013 770 4,013 122.22 82.70 104.55 120.96 121.68 153.92 148.55 16.7 13.5 17.1 23.8 22.1 23.1 17.3 117.89 18.6 23,954 Sources: "Federal Aid to States—Fiscal year 1970," Department of the Treasury, and "Governmental Finances in 1969—70." Bureau of the Census. These reports provide additional information concerning State distribution of Federal grants. Per capita aid is also inversely related to per capita income. There are two reasons for this relationship. Some grant programs require lower matching ratios for the relatively poorer States. Other programs such as those for public assistance and elementary and secondary education, are designed as aids to the disadvantaged and tend to flow to States having proportionately more individuals with lower incomes. This reflects the growing impact of fiscal equalization provisions characteristic of a number of the more recent grant programs. For a State-by-State, program-by-program accounting of Federal grants, see the forthcoming Treasury Department publication "Federal Aid to States—Fiscal Year 1971". Within the rising total of Federal assistance to State and local governments, another important qualitative shift is taking place—the increasing emphasis on urban areas. Between 1960 and 1970, the major population growth in America occurred in the metropolitan complexes. Today, about 70% of the population lives in 268 metropolitan areas. In 1973, approximately $31.5 billion of the $43.5 billion of total Federal grants will be spent in, or directly affect, standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSA's). This is an increase of about $27 billion, or nearly 700% over the amount of aid provided to these urban areas in 1961, and $17.4 billion in the last 4 years. The major increases in Federal grants for urban areas occurred in law enforcement and public assistance. SMSA areas include the bulk of that urban population which places heavy pressure on public service requirements—areas where population growth and population density are high. The amounts shown in table P-7 are estimates based on the best information available. 248 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table P-7. FEDERAL-AID OUTLAYS IN SMSA AREAS (in millions of dollars) Function and program National defense Agriculture and rural development: Donation of surplus commodities Other Natural resources and environment: Environmental protection Other Commerce and transportation: Economic development Highways Airports . Urban mass transportation Other Community development and housing: Urban community development revenue sharing Community action and related programs Urban renewal Public housing Water and sewer facilities Model Cities Other Education and manpower: Education revenue sharing Head Start and Follow Through Elementary and secondary Higher education Vocational education Employment security _ Emergency employment assistance Manpower activities Other Health: 2 Health services and planning Health services delivery Mental health Preventive health services Medical assistance Health manpower Other _°_ Income security: Vocational rehabilitation Public assistance. Child nutrition, special milk and food stamps Other General government: Law enforcement National Capital region Other Other functions General Revenue Sharing Total, aids to urban areas 1961 actual 1964 actual 1969 actual 1973 estimate 10 28 30 38 128 27 231 40 313 104 446 115 24 30 8 10 79 101 884 200 1,398 36 158 1,948 36 152 2,842 160 351 1 5 104 2,225 83 122 5 x 450 531 750 770 98 590 567 106 105 559 136 36 2 17 432 786 257 52 8 75 222 5 28 303 264 14 29 344 256 1,262 210 179 449 3 64 7 530 77 48 47 4 66 82 8 109 219 77 140 4 1,731 107 54 37 1,170 131 3 61 1,450 168 16 247 3,022 482 148 521 5,985 1,983 77 25 38 9 2 17 85 27 440 202 216 14 3,500 3,893 5,588 l 77 270 1,520 81 480 745 1,082 1,115 879 252 437 254 35 2,104 256 3 14,045 31,468 1 Tentative estimate; excludes outlays in 1973 from programs planned for conversion to special revenues haring. 2 See footnote 5 to table P-9. 3 Tentative estimated impact calculated on the basis of population includes both direct passthrough and discretionary State allocations. SPECIAL ANALYSES 249 TYPES OF GRANTS Federal aid to State and local governments, as reflected in budget outlays, take several forms: grants; shared revenues, usually counted as grants; and loans. Shared revenues (not to be confused with the President's revenue sharing programs) are payments of a share of Federal revenues from a particular source—such as receipts from timber sales—which are paid to State and local governments. These payments are frequently in lieu of taxes which would be paid if the Federal land were privately held. Grants are nonrepayable resources provided by the Federal Government in support of a State or local program of service to the public. In practice, there are two types of grants—those with "strings" attached, or conditional grants, and those with "no strings" attached, or unconditional grants. Only the former type is presently in use in the United States, but the President's revenue sharing proposal is designed to change this. Conditional grants may be divided into project grants and formula grants. Project grants are a relatively recent development in the United States and are designed to meet specific problems. That is, a project grant is given for a specific program need, such as demonstration grants for education. The recipient must take the initiative in applying for the grant, and it is up to the discretion of the granting agency whether or not the particular project merits funding. Project grants accounted for an estimated $9.4 billion in 1969 and $11.7 billion in 1970 of total Federal aid. In contrast, formula grants are allocated to all eligible jurisdictions for selected functions on the basis of some formula. The formula criteria may include the fiscal capacity of the recipient government, total or relevant population in the area, such as the number of poor people, or both. Hospital construction grants, and special revenue sharing programs are examples of formula grants. Matching requirements on Federal grants specify the portion of the project or program cost that the recipient is required to provide in order to receive the Federal grant. Matching requirements vary widely depending on the program. For some programs, the matching rates are uniform for recipient governments. In other cases, differential rates have been established so that governments with lower fiscal capacity are required to meet lower matching requirements than those with higher fiscal capacity. Revenue sharing, a third type of grant, has been discussed in another part of this analysis. Three different statistical series showing Federal aid to State and local governments are produced by the Federal Government. Table P-8 shows the principal differences between these three series over a 6-year period. As the table indicates, there is a growing divergence between the series shown in this analysis and the other series. The principal cause of this divergence over these years was the treatment of payments by the Office of Economic Opportunity, research payments, and the distribution of surplus agricultural commodities. Although these payments will be relatively stable in the years 1970-72, the continued growth of food stamps will continue to widen this gap. 250 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table P-8. THREE MEASURES OF FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1965-1970 (in billions of dollars) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Budget (Special Analysis P) Principal exclusions: Agricultural commodities Food stamps Certain OEO payments Add payments for research All other (net) 10.9 13.0 15.2 18.6 20.3 24.0 —.5 (i) (») .9 -.2 —.3 -.1 -.2 .9 -.2 —.3 -.1 -.5 1.0 -.3 —.5 -.2 -.8 1.1 -.1 —.7 -.2 -.8 1.1 -.3 —.5 -.6 -.8 1.2 (*) Federal payments (Census) Exclude low-rent public housing All other (net) 11.1 —.2 (i) 13.1 —.2 -.2 15.0 —.2 0) 18.1 —.3 -.1 19.4 —.3 .3 23.3 —.4 -.4 Grants-in-aid (National Income Accounts) __ _ 10.9 12.7 14.8 17.8 19.4 22.5 1 Less than $50 million. (See: Special Analysis A.) The series used in this analysis is focused on showing Federal aid for programs either operated directly by State or local governments or coordinated through or approved by State agencies. It includes outlays whether cash payments or in-kind, and includes aid to Governments of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The basic focus is on programs aimed to serve the public but not directly administered by the Federal Government. Therefore, it excludes payments for purchases of services to the Federal Government, such as research conducted by public universities. Both the census and the national income accounts (NIA) definitions of grants are designed to match their other definitions for data encompassing the entire economy. They exclude payments to private, nonprofit agencies even if coordinated under a State plan, since this money is reported in the private sector. The principal example of this is OEO, where a considerable amount of money the budget includes as grants goes to private nonprofit entities. Both the census and the NIA definitions exclude payments in-kind from grants—such as commodities donated under the school lunch program—and also exclude payments to territories or possessions. However, they focus on cash payments, so payments for research conducted by public universities are included in their data, as the universities are included as part of the State/local sector in their various tabulations. These payments are not considered grants in this analysis. There are various other—relatively minor—differences between the three series. The one major outlay included in the budget and census series but excluded from the NIA series is payments for low-rent public housing, which the NIA counts as purchases by the Federal Government rather than grants. Further information on the NIA series may be found in Special Analysis A. SPECIAL ANALYSES 251 Table P-9. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS l (expenditures in millions of dollars) Agency and program National defense: Department of Defense—Military: Civil defense shelters and financial assistance Construction of Army National Guard centers Atomic Energy Commission Functional code 051 051 058 37.3 8.3 4.7 41.7 40.9 50.3 5.4 5.7 7.1 .7 5.4 5.7 7.8 387.4 35.9 .1 3.5 11.7 28.9 133.6 1.3 67.3 638.2 53.2 2.5 4.0 15.7 30.6 149.7 1.9 1.4 74.8 714.9 48.8 3.0 3.0 19.7 32.6 154.6 2.9 1.4 79.9 ... 659.7 972.0 1,060.9 401 73.7 87.3 96.2 402 20.8 27.2 25.7 402 402 73.2 .7 57.5 .8 86.8 .8 401 4.2 2.2 401 2.7 2.8 3.0 402 401 403 405 85.1 * 44.9 90.7 .8 .2 62.3 97.9 .9 .3 62.1 405 405 401 62.0 1.3 8.3 110.0 6.2 8.5 129.9 7.7 8.7 Total, international affairs and finance Agriculture and rural development: Department of Agriculture: Commodity Credit Corporation and Consumer and Marketing Service: Removal of surplus agricultural commodities and value of commodities donated _ _ _ 351 Rural water and waste disposal facilities 352 Mutual and self-help housing 352 Rural housing for domestic farm labor 352 Resource conservation and development 354 Consumer protective programs 355 Cooperative agricultural extension service 355 Water Bank Act Program 354 Agricultural Research Service 355 Cooperative State Research Service 355 See footnotes at end of table. 1973 estimate 29.9 6.2 4.8 International affairs and finance: Department of State: East-West Cultural and Technical Interchange Center 153 International Center, Washington, D.C 151 Natural resources: Department of Agriculture: Watershed protection and flood prevention Grants for forest protection, utilization, and basic scientific research National forest and grassland funds: payments to States and counties (shared revenue) Assistance to States for tree planting Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers: Flood control Payments to States, Flood Control Act of 1954 (shared revenue) Department of the Interior: Payments to States and counties (shared revenue).. Bureau of Reclamation Mine drainage and solid waste disposal Fish and wildlife restoration and management Outdoor recreational areas (Land and Water Conservation Fund) Preservation of historic properties Office of Water Resources Research 1972 estimate 25.7 8.4 7.6 Total, national defense Total, agriculture and rural development 1971 actual THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1 9 7 3 252 1 Table P-9. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS —Con. (expenditures in millions of dollars) Agency and program Functional code 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Natural resources—Continued Federal Power Commission: Payments to States (shared revenue) Tennessee Valley Authority: Payments in lieu of taxes (shared revenue) . Water Resources Council Environmental Protection Agency Total, natural resources .2 401 401 401 401 20.0 3.5 520.0 25.7 3.6 964.6 29.0 3.4 1,179.0 ___ 920.4 1,450.4 1,731.7 507 507 .4 229.3 1.7 279.4 285.6 502 507 506 506 506 507 507 .5 2.0 Commerce and transportation: Funds appropriated to the President: Public works acceleration __ Appalachian development Department of Commerce: State marine schools Regional development Promotion of tourism National Bureau of Standards National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration__ Economic development assistance Department of the Interior: Resources management.__ Department of Transportation: Forest and public lands highways __ Highway beautification Highway safety Federal-aid highways (trust fund) Urban mass transportation facilities Federal aid for airports and airways 2 Other Total, commerce and transportation .5 .5 20.4 1.4 2.2 4.5 175.6 2.0 6.6 .6 .5 4.5 166.5 2.6 4.5 183.8 2.3 503 503 503 503 503 501 503 22.4 9.5 68.9 4,562.8 154.1 61.5 3.6 32.8 28.9 85.0 4,595.5 261.3 131.0 7.4 37.4 38.7 84.0 4,801.3 352.7 200.0 4.0 ___ 5,299.3 5,604.8 6,016.6 551 714.7 655.9 656.9 551 551 551 551 551 551 551 551 555 552 320.3 1,025.9 38.8 439.2 1,000.0 69.4 2.0 130.0 35.0 49.5 3.0 844.9 622.0 1,000.0 79.9 Community development and housing: Funds appropriated to the President: Office of Economic Opportunity: Community Action programs Department of Housing and Urban Development: Model city grants Urban renewal Open space land and urban beautification New community assistance Grants for basic water and sewer facilities Grants for neighborhood facilities Urban planning grants Community development training programs Low-rent public housing programs Urban community development revenue sharing Total, community development and housing Seefo nd of table. 120.6 22.5 49.5 2.8 558.6 3.7 150.0 35.0 91.5 3.0 1,026.4 3 490.0 2,853.8 3,228.9 4,158.4 253 SPECIAL ANALYSES Table P-9. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 1 —Con. (expenditures in millions of dollars) Agency and program Functional code 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Education and manpower: Funds appropriated to the President: Office of Economic Opportunity 4 Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Elementary and secondary education Education revenue sharing Assistance to schools in federally affected areas Education of the handicapped Civil rights education Higher education activities (Portion to private institutions) Vocational education Libraries and community services Educational renewal National Foundation for Higher Education Work incentive activities Emergency school assistance Department of Labor: Manpower development and training activities Grants to States for administration of employment security programs (trust fund) Emergency employment assistance Department of Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Education and welfare services National Foundation on the Arts and the Humanities.. Corporation for Public Broadcasting Equal Employment Opportunities Commission Other Total, education and manpower Health:" Mental health: Development of health resources Prevention and control of health problems Health services planning and development (Portion to private, nonprofit institutions) Health services delivery Preventive health services Health manpower Medical assistance Total, health Income security: Funds appropriated to the President: Disaster relief. _ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Income maintenance payments Social services for welfare recipients Vocational rehabilitation _ Department of Agriculture: Food stamp Child nutrition program and special milk Social Security Administration: Special benefits for miners Total, income security See footnotes at end of table. 601 401.5 202.7 601 604 601 601 601 602 602 603 605 605 602 607 601 1,797.9 1,872.4 25.1 122.8 51.4 473.1 40.2 9.1 223.2 (53.3) 507.8 77.4 128.0 1.0 186.7 89.6 1,868.1 M10.0 432.7 37.2 8.8 125.0 (27.3) 545.0 90.8 143.1 30.0 261.6 313.4 607 1,107.1 1,428.8 1,495.8 607 607 759.0 831.7 650.8 887.0 1,082.7 601 608 605 609 ___ 21.4 4.9 23.0 1.1 1.5 22.7 6.4 35.0 1.3 9.6 24.4 6.9 45.0 2.5 2.7 ... 5,721.9 6,797.5 7,537.8 651 652 651 ___ 652 653 651 652 105.4 60.1 341.5 (156.2) 330.1 5.1 262.5 3,362.3 115.0 109.4 317.3 (133.2) 469.1 7.1 253.2 4,400.9 110.4 211.1 327.9 (107.9) 496.6 49.4 298.4 3,432.5 ... 4,467.0 5,672.0 4,926.3 703 122.3 146.8 96.6 702 703 703 5,527.5 743.9 507.5 7,196.9 1,439.5 587.6 6,884.9 1,192.3 694.3 702 702 1.536.5 831.7 2,022.1 749.1 2,274.8 679.1 701 .9 1.7 _.. 9,270.3 492.6 29.0 6.9 308.7 (86.3) 409.9 71.4 112.0 12,143.7 11,822.0 254 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table P-9. FEDERAL AID TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS i—Con. (expenditures in millions of dollars) Agency and program Functional code Veterans benefits and services: Veterans Administration: Aid to State homes Grants for construction of State nursing homes Administrative expenses 804 804 804 Total, veterans benefits and services ___ General government: Department of the Interior: Grants to territories Internal revenue collections, Virgin Islands (shared revenue) Department of Justice: Law enforcement assistance.__ Treasury Department: Tax collections for Puerto Rico (shared revenue)____ _.._ National Capital region: Federal payment to District of Columbia Washington Metropolitan Transit Agency Other Total, general government General revenue sharing Total, grants and shared revenues 1971 actual 15.5 2.9 .6 19.0 1972 estimate 16.6 4.0 .6 21.2 1973 estimate 18.5 5.3 .6 24.4 909 59.5 85.9 88.8 909 908 13.2 195.8 15.6 361.9 16.7 501.7 909 84.9 90.0 95.0 909 ___ ___ 139.0 34.8 58.3 180.0 89.4 69.9 202.0 163.7 74.8 ___ 585.5 892.8 1,142.7 940 ___ 29,844.0 2,250.0 5,000.0 39,079.8 43,478.9 *Less than $100 thousand. Grants-in-aid unless otherwise specified. Excludes loans which are shown separately in table P-IO. Federal funds in 1970; trust funds in 1971 and 1972. Amounts added to categorical programs folded into special revenue sharing. Manpower programs transferred to Labor Department. Health services planning and development incorporates health services research and development, regional medical programs, and medical facilities construction. Health services delivery incorporates comprehensive health planning and services, maternal and child health, and patient care and special health services. 1 2 3 4 5 SPECIAL ANALYSES 255 Table P-10. FEDERAL LOANS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Agency and program Net outlays Disbursements 1971 actual e 1972 1973 1971 actual 1972 1973 Natural resources: Department of the Interior: Reclamation loans.__ __ Total, natural resources 6.5 15.7 17.0 5.0 14.0 15.2 6.5 15.7 17.0 5.0 14.0 15.2 Commerce and transportation: Department of Commerce: Economic development assistance. _ Department of Transportation: Mass transportation facilities Right-of-way revolving fund 16.6 20.7 16.6 13.2 15.7 12.3 32.9 51.0 55.0 -.2 32.9 -.2 51.0 -.2 55.0 Total commerce and transportation... _ 49.5 71.7 71.6 45.9 66.5 67.1 710.2 825.0 900.0 -.1 10.0 10.0 1.5 576.4 613.6 656.8 1.5 10.1 -1.0 39.0 -7.2 35.1 1,438.6 1,556.8 11.5 48.0 37.9 Community development and housing: Department of Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing fund. _ _ Housing management: Revolving fund _ Community developmentTotal, community development and housing 1,288.1 Education and manpower: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Higher education activities ._ Department of Housing and Urban Development: College housing 17.7 11.6 4.1 15.5 9.8 4.5 79.7 55.8 49.5 48.3 23.2 15.9 Total, education and manpower. 97.4 67.4 53.6 63.8 32.0 20.4 4 -.4 -.4 General government: Department of Defense—Civil Department of the Interior: Administration of territories General Services Administration: General activities. _ _ _ . . District of Columbia _ _ _ _ 2.5 7.0 5.0 2.2 6.5 4.3 91.9 217.8 217.8 -8.3 57.5 -1.1 167.3 -1.2 166.0 Total, general government 94.4 224.8 222.8 51.0 172.3 168.7 1,535.9 1,818.2 1,921.8 177.2 332.8 309.3 Total SPECIAL ANALYSIS Q FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES Over the years there has been an interest in identifying the trend and characteristics of public works programs included in the President's budget. This analysis brings together information on budget authority and outlays for direct construction and for grants and loans to assist State and local construction of public works. Some additional information is provided on grants and loans to aid construction by private cooperatives and nonprofit groups. Not included are Federal activities affecting the level of private construction, such as Federal procurement, leases, loans, loan guarantees, interest subsidies, and tax concessions. SUMMARY Federal outlays for construction of public works are expected to be $13.7 billion in "l 973, an increase of 5% over 1972, and 64% higher than the level 10 years earlier. For the civil works programs, outlays will increase $832 million over 1972. The major increases are $211 million for highway grants, $222 million for water resources projects, $192 million for sewage treatment facilities, and $165 million for mass transit facilities, including the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. Outlays for national defense public works are estimated at $1,595 million in 1973, $176 million below the 1972 level. Summary information on Federal outlays for construction of public works is provided in the following table Q-l and the accompanying chart. Table Q-l. FEDERAL O U T L A Y S FOR PUBLIC W O R K S , 1964-73 (in millions of dollars) Fiscal year 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971_. 1972 estimate _ 1973 estimate Total Federal outlays 8,346 8,886 9,428 9,572 9,520 9,683 9,791 10,632 13,021 13,677 Direct Federal construction Total 4,019 4,152 4,693 4,483 3,972 3,932 3,740 4,001 5,428 5,493 Civil 2,691 2,800 3,014 2,752 2,460 2,186 2,200 2,617 3,668 3,912 Defense ,378 ,352 ,679 ,731 ,513 ,746 ,540 ,384 ,761 ,581 Grants 4,186 4,567 4,446 4,730 5,264 5,479 5,796 6,429 7,259 7,871 Net lending 142 167 289 359 284 111 255 202 333 312 Note.— In this and the following tables, nonconstruction costs are excluded; proposed legislation is included for the years 1972 and 1973. Details may not add because of rounding. Net lending in years prior to 1967 does not reflect those repayments deposited to miscellaneous receipts, which for 1967 and later years are netted against disbursements. 256 257 SPECIAL ANALYSES Federal Expenditures for Public Works S Billions 7.9 8.07.3 _ 1 Defense K ^ f l Direct < 7.0- ( Civil I Grants I 6,4 • 6.0- 5.0- 3.9 4.0- 3.7 3.02.6 2.01.4 1.00 1964 1965 Fiscal Years 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Estimate Total budget authority proposed for public works in 1973 will be $14.5 billion, slightly below the estimate for 1972. However, there are significant shifts among programs within the total. Budget authority for construction grants will decline from $9.6 billion in 1972 to $8.7 billion in 1973, in part because: • Increased use will be made of subsidies instead of matching grants for schools and hospitals; and • Balances of prior year appropriations will enable the Department of Housing and Urban Development to continue the grant program for water and sewer lines in 1973 at the 1972 level without additional appropriations. Budget authority requested for direct civil works will decline by a net amount of $176 million to $3 billion in 1973, primarily because of the following factors: • Increases for water resource developments of the Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation will be more than offset by the decline in new authority needed for Federal Aviation Administration facilities which will be financed in part from user charges. • Under pending legislation, the General Services Administration will shift from a direct construction program to use of privately financed construction, permitting a substantial reduction in the $850 million backlog of authorized projects, while reducing the need for Federal funds in 1973. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 O—75 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 258 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Budget authority proposed for direct construction of military and atomic energy facilities will increase by $850 million to $2.6 billion in 1973. This increase reflects: • Added requirements for the Safeguard missile defense system, pollution abatement facilities at Federal installations, and housing and other facilities for the all-volunteer armed forces; • Undertaking of some military construction projects deferred during the Vietnam war; and • Construction cost increases. These increases are partly offset by the decrease in the construction of facilities related to the Vietnam war. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS IN PERSPECTIVE Federal public works programs have a significant impact on the general level of economic activity and are of particular concern to the construction industry and to the geographical locations where structures are built. Public and private construction together account for an important part of the gross national product and the Nation's employment. In 1971, construction represented about 10% of the gross national product. According to Department of Commerce estimates, the value of total public and private new construction put in place in the calendar year 1971 was $109 billion, a 16% increase over the $94 billion level in 1970. Private construction alone increased nearly 20%, to $79 billion from $66 billion in 1970. Most of this increase is for residential construction, which expanded sharply beginning late in 1970. Publicly owned construction also increased in 1971, but at a slower rate. The Department of Commerce estimates that public construction put in place will total $30 billion in 1971, a 7.5% increase from the $28 billion in 1970. Within the public sector, about 85% of the construction is built by State and local governments (including Federal aid) and the remaining 15% is built by the Federal Government. From 3 to 3.5 million workers have been employed by the contract construction industry in recent years. This industry builds most new private and public structures, and also helps to maintain and repair existing structures. Payrolls of the contract construction industry approximated $34 billion in 1970, compared with $25 billion in 1966 and $21 billion in 1964. In addition to the workers employed at the construction site, offsite employment is provided through the manufacturing industries that supply materials and equipment to the construction site. Employment in these supplying industries is affected by changes in the loca- SPECIAL ANALYSES 259 tion, type, and volume of construction activity. The number of such industries is large, including such basic industries as cement, lumber, glass, brick, tile, steel, copper, aluminum, and such manufactures as plumbing fixtures, heating and cooling systems, electrical equipment and fixtures, and paints. Construction costs have risen at a rapid rate for the past 10 years, but have increased even more sharply in recent years. The Department of Commerce composite construction cost index (1967 = 100) rose to 125 in January 1971, compared with 118 in January 1970 and 110 in January 1969. By August 1971, the index had reached 134, an increase of 7% over January 1971, and 22% over January 1969. In March 1971, as part of the continuing efforts to arrest this trend, the President issued Executive Order 11588 to provide mechanisms to help stabilize construction wages and prices, including the Construction Industry Stabilization Committee and craft dispute boards. Under Executive Order 11627, issued in October 1971, the President continued these arrangements and integrated them with his new economic program. Preliminary figures through November 1971 indicate that the construction cost index remained stable at the August level. In this special analysis of Federal public works activities, construction is defined as the design and production of fixed works and structures or substantial alterations to land, including new works and major additions, alterations, improvements and replacements of existing works. Detailed planning and the cost of sites for specific construction projects are included. Preliminary planning and surveys prior to the selection of a site, general purpose land acquisitions, such as those for parks and forests, and general maintenance and repair are excluded. DIRECT FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS Outlays for direct Federal construction are shown by agency in table Q-2, classified according to civil programs and defense public works. In 1973, outlays for all direct Federal public works are estimated at $5.5 billion, including $1.6 billion for defense public works. Direct works for civil programs are estimated at $3.9 billion, compared with $3.7 billion in 1972. These outlays are predominantly for water resources and related power generation and transmission facilities built by a number of agencies, including the Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, the Bonneville Power Administration, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. In addition, the Federal Government builds office, postal service, research, hospital, prison and other buildings; and roads and visitor facilities in the national forests, parks, and other public lands. 260 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-2. DIRECT FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS: OUTLAYS AND 1973 BUDGET AUTHORITY BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Outlays Program and agency 1971 actual Civil public works: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service Department of the Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil__ Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health, Services and Mental Health Administration Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs National Park Service Bureau of Reclamation Bonneville Power Administration Department of Justice: Federal Prison System Department of Transportation: Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service Veterans Administration Smithsonian Institution Tennessee Valley Authority Other Subtotal civil public works National defense public works: Department of the Army__ __ Department of the Navy Department of the Air Force Interservice activities Civil defense centers and shelters Atomic Energy Commission __ _ Budget authority 1973 estimate 136 952 195 1,119 202 1,246 148 1, 281 26 43 45 64 50 29 223 102 2 86 81 292 90 11 92 58 378 85 24 48 42 329 86 38 39 160 123 44 87 80 5 481 78 43 246 199 43 276 107 17 654 166 52 241 308 60 258 96 7 529 231 47 247 248 77 2,617 ___ 1973 1972 estimate estimate 3,668 3,912 155 46 29 164 3,049 438 310 271 120 3 243 564 462 304 193 1 237 540 306 277 221 (*) 237 1,026 570 335 391 1 273 Subtotal national defense public works 1,384 1,761 1,581 2,596 Total direct Federal public works 4,001 5,428 5,493 5,646 iLess than $500,000. The General Services Administration contracts not only for the construction of most Federal office buildings, but also for office space in privately owned structures. Legislation is proposed to permit the General Services Administration to contract for new buildings to be financed by private capital, thus reducing the backlog of authorized projects without increasing budget outlays. The Government would fund these costs through long-term payments. GRANTS AND N E T LENDING FOR PUBLIC WORKS Federal grant and loan programs help State and local governments build facilities such as roads, mass transit, water, sewer and waste treatment facilities, airports, and schools. Federal outlays for grants and loans to aid in construction of State and local works are summarized by agency in table Q-3. SPECIAL ANALYSES 261 Table Q-3. GRANTS AND NET LENDING FOR PUBLIC W O R K S : O U T LAYS AND 1973 BUDGET AUTHORITY, BY AGENCY (ini millions of dollars) Program and agency Grants to State and local governments: Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs Department of Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration Soil Conservation Service Department of Commerce: Economic Development Administration Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration. National Institutes of Health Office of Education Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior: Bureau of Outdoor Recreation Office of Territorial Affairs Department of Justice: Law Enforcement Assistance Administration Department of Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration Federal Highway Administration Urban Mass Transportation Administration Environmental Protection Agency Washington Metropolitan Transit Authority Other civil Subtotal civil grants Department of Defense Total grants Lending to State and local governments: Department of Commerce: Economic Development Administration Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Office ofEducation Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior: Bureau of Reclamation Department of Transportation: Federal Highway Administration Urban Mass Transportation Administration District of Columbia Other agencies Subtotal lending Repayments Total net lending Total grants and net lending Outlays 1971 actual Budget authority 1973 estimate 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 202 237 230 238 24 85 57 103 52 116 2 110 152 157 174 143 120 101 222 143 105 99 161 167 82 79 100 189 34 1 16 45 36 20 65 40 76 36 121 23 10 40 64 93 61 4,567 153 478 35 9 124 184 4,622 4,833 260 908 89 15 351 -55 1,100 2,000 5,707 164 11 183 37 6,418 11 7,249 11 7,857 14 8,698 19 6,429 7,259 7,871 8,717 17 21 16 17 17 838 7 10 925 16 5 987 17 8 17 33 55 51 2 51 57 177 7 Ml 5 149 4 965 -763 1,263 -930 1,261 -949 195 -16 202 333 312 179 6,631 7,592 8,183 8,896 Federal grant disbursements are generally supplemented by State and local funds. The matching requirements differ considerably among programs. The Federal share of the total cost may be a uniform percentage for all eligible projects, or the share may vary in accordance with factors such as population or relative financial ability of the 262 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 State and local governments. Federal aid disbursements represent advances or reimbursements to the State and local authorities for the Federal share of construction put in place. Grants which indirectly support State and local construction activities, such as interest subsidies and contributions for purposes such as public housing and hospital care, are not included in this analysis. Outlays for construction programs administered by the Department of Transportation reflect changed program priorities from 1971 to 1973. Federal highway grant outlays will increase 6%, while airport grant outlays will triple and urban mass transportation construction grant outlays will more than double over the period. Nevertheless, about three-fifths of all construction grant outlays will be for the Federal-aid highway program of the Federal Highway Administration. About 85% of the $4.8 billion outlays in 1973 are payments for work completed under contracts awarded in prior years. A large share of these outlays apply to the Interstate Highway System, a 42,500-mile network begun in 1956 and now 76% completed. Of the $68.3 billion estimated Federal share of the System's total cost, about $41.2 billion has been obligated. Under the Airport and Airway Development and Revenue Acts of 1970, the Federal Aviation Administration helps finance airport development and improvement with matching grants for eligible projects. Outlays for such grants are estimated at $184 million in 1973. The Urban Mass Transportation Administration will make capital grants of $841 million with outlays of $351 million in 1973 for construction of mass transit facilities such as subways, commuter railroads, and busways. These grants represent the construction part of the overall urban mass transit program, which will be at a billiondollar level in 1973. With the exception of the Interstate System, the grant programs for highways, airports, and urban mass transportation are proposed to be included in the revenue sharing program for transportation beginning in 1974 to provide State and local governments with greater freedom of choice without the requirement to match Federal funds. Federal grants to help State and local agencies construct hospitals and health centers are expected to decline from $105 million in 1972 to $82 million in 1973. These programs, administered by the Health Services and Mental Health Administration, will be supplemented by loan guarantees and interest subsidies (not included in this analysis). In addition, programs such as Medicare and Medicaid indirectly support the construction of hospitals and related facilities. The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare also administers Federal grants for teaching facilities in the health professions and for health research facilities through the National Institutes of Health. The Office of Education grants for educational facilities are expected to decline from $161 million in 1972 to $100 million in 1973, as greater use will be made of interest rate subsidies for these purposes. The Appalachian Regional Commission provides grants for construction of public facilities in Appalachia, principally for roads; and the Economic Development Administration in the Department of Commerce administers grants and loans to help communities to construct public facilities needed for their long-term growth. Both of these programs are proposed to be included in revenue sharing for rural community development beginning in July 1973. SPECIAL ANALYSES 263 Construction of municipal water and sewer facilities will continue to increase in 1973. Several Federal programs help to reduce the initial and continuing costs which the State and local jurisdictions must bear to provide these facilities. Federal grants for rural and, in some cases, urban sewer and water facilities provide up to 50% of the financing requirements for eligible projects. Interest costs on such projects are also reduced, either by direct Federal lending or by the Federal income tax exemption for State and local bonds. Because of increasing concern for the qualit}r of our environment and the need for more effective water pollution control, construction of municipal waste treatment facilities will also increase in 1973. Federal grants for sewage treatment plants provide up to 55% of construction costs. Although privately financed, industrial construction of treatment facilities to meet new environmental standards is also expanding rapidly. With these facilities, the waste gas, fluids, and solids will be treated and discharged as less harmful products or emissions. CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS Additional details on civil direct construction are provided in the following sections. Before larger projects are undertaken, the responsible agencies conduct preliminary surveys and investigations to determine the merits of the project and, where necessary, to provide the basis for authorizing legislation. In the case of water resource projects, coordinated long-range economic, hydrologic and land-use projections are employed to help assure economic design of specific facilities within each comprehensive river basin. The summary tables in this analysis do not include outlays for such preliminary planning. New and continuing work.—Table Q-4 provides information on direct Federal projects underway in 1973, indicating the total cost, the progress through the budget year, and the estimated cost of completion. The table distinguishes between projects started in earlier years and those started in the budget 37ear, and also provides information on detailed project planning and site acquisitions for projects to be started after the budget year. About 87% of the total outlays for direct civil works are for continuing work. An additional $15.7 billion will be required after 1973 to complete these projects. New projects estimated to cost $3.1 billion are recommended for 1973, of which $391 million will be spent in 1973. The General Services Administration's program, including a 1972 supplemental appropriation request, provides for completion of four buildings already under construction, two new border inspection stations, and improvements in the Federal Triangle in time for the bicentennial celebration in the Nation's Capital. Construction of other buildings will be shifted to private investment financing upon enactment of pending legislation. The Postal Service plans to award about 36 contracts for major buildings and about 75 for minor projects in 1973 as part of the program to increase the efficiency of the postal system. The total cost of these new structures is estimated at $660 million. 264 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-4. ESTIMATED COST OF 1973 DIRECT FEDERAL CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS, BY CONTINUING AND NEW WORK (in millions of dollars) Program and agency Total estimated Federal cost Outlays Prior to 1973 1973 estimate Required to cornplete 240 286 152 195 33 90 56 16,207 8,585 1,213 6,409 104 43 34 27 1,290 1,694 9,215 469 307 11 4,624 283 78 53 373 77 905 1,564 4,217 109 68 757 78 690 1,197 789 368 2,850 1,299 30 246 17 159 1,085 474 249 1,376 568 27 199 20 269 51 176 62 496 170 11 312 43 263 61 139 57 977 560 37,602 18,470 3,421 15,710 111 71 8 429 11 27 13 7 8 1 15 256 85 30 Continuing work: Architect of the Capitol Department of Agriculture: Forest Service Department of the Army: Corps of Engineers— Civil Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs National Park Service Bureau of Reclamation Bonneville Power Administration Department of Transportation: Coast Guard Federal Aviation Administration Federal Railroad Administration General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postal Service Veterans Administration Tennessee Valley Authority Other Total continuing work New projects and features in 1973: Department of Agriculture: Forest Service Department of the Army: Corps of Engineers— Civil . Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs Bureau of Reclamation. Bonneville Power Administration Department of Justice: Federal Prison System Department of Transportation: Coast Guard__ -.-; — v Federal Aviation Administration General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration PostalService Veterans Administration Tennessee Valley Authority Other Total new projects and features 183 449 12 38 28 261 93 35 3 3 44 247 148 69 660 132 650 101 3,139 23 20 1 4 7 42 10 7 74 21 26 29 205 138 62 586 110 620 64 30 391 2,718 SPECIAL ANALYSES 265 Table Q-4. ESTIMATED COST OF 1973 DIRECT FEDERAL CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS, BY CONTINUING AND NEW WORK (in millions of dollars)—Continued Program and agency Total estimated Federal cost Outlays Prior to 1973 1973 estimate Required to complete 99 42 25 32 10 108 8 151 11 39 10 31 3 4 3 87 1 17 1 3 3 2 29 1 13 6 16 4 99 3 35 8 9 3 13 467 161 100 206 3,912 18,634 Advance planning and site acquisition prior to start of construction: Department of the Army: Corps of Engineers— Civil Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management National Park Service Bureau of Reclamation General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Veterans Administration Tennessee Valley Authority Other Total advance planning Total direct civil public works 41,207 18,661 5 The National Aeronautics and Space Administration will build facilities needed for the space shuttle and for research on increasing the efficiency of jet engines. The Tennessee Valley Authority will continue construction of five large electric power generating plants and related transmission facilities, and will start two new nuclear fueled generating plants in 1973. Appropriations for ^construction of water resources projects by the Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation were curtailed in recent years to help reduce inflationary pressures and budget outlays. At the same time, major commitments to future spending were made by congressional approval of funds for starting construction on many new projects. As a result, disruptions occurred in many ongoing projects because of underfinancing and other delays. The 1973 budget provides substantial increases in funding for construction of ongoing water resources projects to permit more optimal construction rates. In addition, the budget provides for 13 new water resources projects by the Corps of Engineers and two projects by the Bureau of Reclamation, with a total estimated cost of $710 million. This policy of a modest number of new project starts must be strictly adhered to by the executive branch and the Congress in order to avoid building up construction backlogs and to prevent repetition of program disruptions. Advance planning and site acquisition.—After preliminary plans and necessary legislative authorizations are approved, detailed architectural and engineering plans are prepared and sites are acquired before on-site construction operations begin. Outlays for detailed architectural and engineering planning and site acquisitions are included in table Q-4, and separately identified for those projects to be started after the budget year. 266 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Authorized reserve of civil public works.—Many agencies that regularly build civil works projects maintain an authorized reserve to draw upon as necessan^ to fulfill program needs and budgetar}^ policy. Projects in such reserve status have met the requirements for legislative authorization, and require only appropriations and detailed planning for starting. The size and planning status of the authorized reserve is shown by agency in table Q-5. No reserve is identified for the General Services Administration since the budget proposes that authorized projects be shifted to private investment financing. Table Q-5. RESERVE OF PRESENTLY AUTHORIZED PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS FOR UNDERTAKING AFTER 1973 (in billions of dollars) Agency Estimated total Federal cost Agriculture: Forest Service 0.7 Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil 12.1 Interior: Bureau of Land Management. _ _ .3 Bureau of Sport Fisheries and .4 Wildlife .9 Bureau of Reclamation .7 Bonneville Power Administration .5 Justice: Bureau of Prisons Transportation: Federal Aviation Administration __ _ _ .9 Veterans Administration._ .3 Tennessee Valley Authority 1.5 .5 Other agencies _ _ _ __ Total 18.7 Status oiF plans as of June 30. 1972 Contract could be let In process Not started 0.2 1.3 0.5 6.3 4.4 0) .1 .2 0) .2 .5 .2 .2 .7 .5 .2 1.4 .2 .6 .3 .1 .2 9.3 7.4 .1 0) 0) 2.0 0) Status of plans as of June 30. 1973 Contract could be let 0.2 1.6 In Not process started 0.5 6.2 4.2 .1 .1 .4 .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .6 .5 .2 .3 .2 1.4 .1 .2 .4 .1 .1 .2 4.0 8.1 6.6 0) 0) 1 Less than $50 million. Note.— Excludes $0.8 billion of General Services Administration projects which will be privately financed under proposed legislation. PUBLIC WORKS BY FUNCTION Detailed information on budget authority and outlays for public works programs, grouped according to the major functional categories used in the budget, is provided in table Q-8 at the end of this analysis. Outlays for public works construction are reported for each of the major functions except interest. In 1973, 86% of the outlays for civil works are in two major functions—commerce and transportation and natural resources and environment. The commerce and transportation function includes $6.5 billion for public works, primarily grants for highways, airports, mass transit, and other public facilities. The function also includes substantial direct construction such as for post offices, aviation control systems, and Coast Guard facilities. In 1973, public works account for more than half the total outlays in the commerce and transportation function. In the natural resources and environment function, public works outlays in 1973 are estimated at $3.9 billion, approximately three SPECIAL ANALYSES 267 fifths of total gross outlays for the function. The public works in this function are predominantly water resource projects and sewage treatment plants. Total construction outlays for all water resources and related developments included in other civil functions as well as the natural resources and environment function are shown in table Q-6 and the accompanying chart. The table identifies the facilities and principal agencies conducting the various programs. Table Q-6. OUTLAYS FOR WATER RESOURCES AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS (in millions of dollars) Program and agency 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Flood control works: Agriculture: Soil Conservation Service (mostly grants) Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil Interior: Bureau of Reclamation State: International Boundary and Water Commission Tennessee Valley Authority 65.5 404.1 2.4 1.8 .4 77.1 505.2 2.2 4.3 1.0 85.0 609.8 3.3 11.6 Total flood control works Beach erosion control: Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil 474.2 1.7 589.8 6.2 709.7 3.5 10.9 12.6 14.7 6.9 64.6 13.0 100.7 13.0 154.3 82.4 126.3 182.0 220.0 .1 .3 235.6 .5 3.1 261.6 .6 4.1 220.4 239.2 266.3 326.3 119.2 31.9 371.6 174.1 53.6 370.6 194.1 68.7 477.4 599.3 633.4 2.8 364.6 3.1 496.6 3.7 359.3 367.4 499.7 363.0 Irrigation and water conservation works: Agriculture: Soil Conser vat ion Service (mostly grants) Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs Bureau of Reclamation Total irrigation works Navigation facilities: Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil Transportation: Saint Lawrence Seaway Corporation Tennessee Valley Authority Total navigation facilities Multiple-purpose dams and reservoirs with hydroelectric power facilities: Army: Corps of Engineers—Civil Interior: Bureau of Reclamation .... Tennessee Valley Authority Total multiple-purpose facilities Powerplants: Interior: Bureau of Territorial Affairs (grants) Tennessee Valley Authority Total powerplants . Power transmission facilities: Interior: Bureau of Reclamation Bonneville Power Administration Southwestern Power Administration Tennessee Valley Authority 10.8 101.9 2.4 72.9 9.3 90.0 3.3 81.8 9.2 85.2 1.3 88.8 Total power transmission facilities 188.0 184.4 184.5 268 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table Q-6. OUTLAYS FOR W A T E R RESOURCES A N D RELATED DEVELOPM E N T S (in millions of dollars)—Continued Program and agency Water supply and waste disposal facilities: Agriculture: Farmers Home Administration (grants) Forest Service Commerce: Economic Development Administration (primarily grants) Health, Education and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration Housing and Urban Development: Grants Loan disbursements Interior: National Park Service Bureau of Reclamation Environmental Protection Agency (grants) Other agencies Total water supply and waste disposal Total water resources and related developments 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 20.4 8.1 53.2 20.8 48.8 28.7 69.5 70.2 85.2 15.6 29.8 32.1 120.6 42.8 130.0 41.5 150.0 41.7 5.6 29.2 478.4 16.6 16.1 19.9 908.0 22.5 30.0 33.9 1,100.0 16.7 806.8 1,312.0 1,567.1 2,618. 3 3,556.9 3,909.5 Outlays (or Water Resources and Related Developments $ Billions 4.0 3.0 — -2.0 -1.0 Flood Control and Beach Erosion 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Fiscal Years Estimate 1973 SPECIAL ANALYSES 269 In the remaining civil functions, public works account for much smaller proportions of total outlays. In 1973, the outlays for public works in thse functions range from $8 million in the international affairs and finance function to $823 million in the general government function. In these functions, the public works outlays relate to a wide variety of structural needs including, in addition to general purpose office buildings and research facilities, hospitals, schools, museums, and housing. NATIONAL DEFENSE PUBLIC WORKS Major direct construction programs for the armed services and for atomic energy development are included in the national defense function. Outlays for construction in this function are estimated at $1.6 billion in 1973. Department of Defense—Military.—An increase of $782 million in budget authority for construction by the armed services is proposed for 1973. The $2.3 billion total provides for a wide variety of structures, including hospitals, troop and family housing, and other improvements. Included are the planned expansion of the Safeguard missile system, pollution abatement projects, bachelor and family housing, and community facilities to support the all-volunteer Armed Forces program. Atomic Energy Commission.—Outlays for construction of atomic energy facilities are expected to remain at the same level in 1973 as in 1972, $237 million. Work will continue on the world's largest accelerator for research in high energy physics, located near Chicago. An increase in outlays for major modifications to improve fire prevention and safety features in existing weapons facilities will be more than offset by a decline in outlays to provide new weapons capabilities. Major improvements in the gaseous diffusion plants have been undertaken. Several facilities are being modified to meet more stringent environmental standards. AID TO COOPERATIVE AND NONPROFIT GROUPS In some instances, private nonprofit institutions provide services similar to those provided by State and local governments and are eligible for assistance under various Federal-aid programs. Federal outlays to aid such private institutions are summarized in table Q-7, but are not included in the totals for public works in other parts of this analysis. 270 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-7. FEDERAL OUTLAYS FOR CONSTRUCTION B Y COOPERATIVES AND NONPROFIT G R O U P S (not included in public works) (in millions of dollars) Program and agency 1971 actual Expenditures: Grants for private construction: Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Medical facilities construction National Institutes of Health: Health, educational, research and library facilities Office of Education: Higher education facilities Gallaudet College Howard University Model Secondary School for the Deaf National Technical Institute for the Deaf 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 171 150 119 55 86 2 2 316 56 53 2 11 1 9 282 60 27 3 16 5 10 240 627 576 669 2 38 47 22 101 14 41 -196 29 -111 26 -315 Total net lending 513 447 493 Total Federal outlays 829 729 733 Total expenditures Lending: Department of Agriculture: Rural Electrification Administration: Electrification and telephone facilities Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Medical facilities Office of Education: Higher education facilities Department of Housing and Urban Development: College housing Repayments 0 0 i Less than $500 thousand. Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC W O R K S ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) By major junction and agency BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual 1972 estimate OUTLAYS 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS International Affairs and Finance Department of State: Foreign Service buildings____ International Center, Washington. D.C. (grant) United States Information Agency: Radio facilities Total international affairs and finance 3.5 6.7 14.2 2.7 3.5 1.0 6.9 .7 8.8 4.6 .4 3.5 6.7 15.2 11.5 8.1 8.0 26.2 52.7 77.3 43.7 43.0 60.0 Space Research and Technology National Aeronautics and Space Administration: Research and space flight facilities See footnotes at end of table. SPECIAL ANALYSES 271 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate OUTLAYS 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS—Con. Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Agriculture: Laboratories, research facilities, and library Cooperative State Research Service: Grants for research facilities Farmers Home Administration: Grants for rural water and sewersystems Grants for farm labor housing... Soil Conservation Service: Grants for resource conservation and development..., Plant materials center Total agriculture and rural development._ 5.3 .8 3.2 5.2 8.9 5.3 1.4 .4 .4 20.4 53.2 48.8 100.0 100.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.5 4.0 3.0 14.1 .3 19.4 18.3 11.7 0) 15.7 .4 19.7 122.2 122.7 24.0 42.2 82.7 77.2 .6 75.6 .3 102.4 .3 92.0 .5 73.7 .3 87.3 .4 96.1 187.0 212.2 147.5 135.6 195.5 201.6 Natural Resources and Environment Department of Agriculture: Soil Conservation Service: Flood prevention and watershed protection: Direct work Grants Forest Service: Roads, research, recreational, and other facilities2 .... Department of Defense—Civil: Corps of Engineers—Civil: Flood control, navigation and multiple-purpose projects with power Trust funds Grants Department of the Interior: Bureau of Land Management: Roads and other facilities.. Bureau of Outdoor Recreation: Grants for recreation facilities Office of Coal Research: Demonstration plants Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife: Facilities National Park Service: Parkways, roads, buildings and utilities 2 Sec footnotes at end of table. 896.7 1,079.8 1,253.9 24.8 26.7 26.7 4.2 2.2 13.7 23.2 12.5 929.1 1,090.8 1,218.6 23.1 27.8 27.0 4.2 2.2 10.1 16.7 14.2 111.0 131.6 121.3 36.4 64.6 76.3 2.4 10.3 20.0 3.9 6.1 21.8 4.2 7.2 6.2 3.9 5.6 7.8 41.0 120.6 42.4 29.1 80.9 58.2 272 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-8. FEDERAL-PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual 1973 estimate 277.5 329.5 222.8 292.2 377.6 11. 3 -1. 7 17.3 -1.7 -1.6 6.5 -1.5 .1 15l 7 _ l .7 3.7 17.0 -1.7 86. 7 86.3 101.9 90. 0 85.2 1. 0 .8 2.4 3..3 1.3 6 .5 .3 3 .6 19.2 10.2 2. 8 5.3 15.9 28.0 1.0 4 1.4 6.6 2, 000.0 2,000.0 478. 4 908.0 1,100.0 34.8 28.9 481. 3 653.7 528.7 4, 174.0 4,197.5 2,543. 1 3,546.0 3,854.8 202.4 236.6 230.5 .4 1.7 152.5 16.6 -3.4 156.6 20.7 -4.9 CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS-Con. Natural Resources and Environment—Con. Department of the Interior— Continued Bureau of Reclamation: Irrigation and multiplepurpose projects with power 2_._ _ 232.6 Small irrigation projects: Grants 8.5 Loans Repayments -1.5 Power transmission facilities: Bonneville Power Administration 89.1 Southwestern Power Administration 1.0 Office of Saline Water: Facilities .3 Department of State: Internaternational Boundary and Water Commission: Water resources projects and Chamizal settlement 4.2 Environmental Protection Agency: Bu ildings and facilities Grants for waste treatment and other facilities . . . 1,000.0 Tennessee Valley Authority: Power, water resources, and chemical facilities 3,278.9 Total natural resources._ 5,974.2 OUTLAYS 1972 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate Commerce and Transportation Funds appropriated to the President: Appalachian regional development programs: Grants for highways, education, and health facilities Public works acceleration: Grants Department of Commerce: Economic Development Administration: Development facilities: Grants. _ __ . . . 5_._ Loans_ ._ avments _ Repa, Regional Action Planning Commissions: Grants for regional development facilities. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Structures See footnotes at end of table. 261.7 291.7 173.4 16.6 149.2 10.8 238.1 143. 4 16. 6 . 21.7 1.2 22.4 24.1 173.8 15.6 -3.2 .8 5.3 19.1 .2 .3 .4 SPECIAL ANALYSES 273 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual OUTLAYS 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 2.0 .4 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS-Con. Commerce and Transportation—Con. Department of Commerce— Continued National Bureau of Standards: Buildings .2 Maritime Administration: Improvements Department of Defense—Civil: Panama Canal Company: Canal and harbor improvements. Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Roads _. 30.0 Department of Transportation: Coast Guard: Shore facilities, bridges, and navigation aids. 13.2 Federal Aviation Administration: National Capital Airports and Aeronautical Exposition 6.8 Facilities and equipment 3 594.3 (trust funds) 183.2 Airport grants (trust funds) _ Federal Highway Administration: Federal-aid Highways: Grants (trust funds) 5,474.7 Right-of-way revolving fund: 100.0 Loans (trust funds) Forest and public lands high3 45.1 way grants (trust funds) . Grants for highway safety, rail-highway crossings, territorial, Chamizal highways, and other special purposes2 36.0 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Compliance testfacility Federal Railroad Administration: Research facilities 3.2 Urban Mass Transportation Administration: Transportation facilities: Research facilities 4.0 Grants 3,016.0 Loans 49.0 Repayments St. Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation: Alterations Postal Service: Post offices, im- 10,000.0 provements and alterations.. See footnotes at end of table. http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 480-700 0—72 18 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .7 2.2 1.3 .2 30.0 5.2 12.6 10.8 17.7 41.8 45.0 44.1 47.0 39.0 42.9 51.5 7.1 3.6 1.6 14.7 6.4 454.6 243.4 157.9 61.5 231.7 124.5 235.0 184.0 5,569.0 5,616.5 4,539.6 4,570.6 4,771.2 33.0 51.0 55.0 45.1 45.1 22.3 32.8 37.4 47.5 45.0 5.1 18.9 24.5 .6 3.0 9.6 9.6 25.2 4.4 11.2 19.5 5.0 -43.0 7.5 -54.9 2.4 152.6 6.0 350.6 —.2 4.9 259.6 57.0 —57.2 .1 87.2 .5 275.7 .6 257.6 —.2 274 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC W O R K S A C T I V I T I E S (in millions of dollars)-Con. By major function and agency—Continued Function, agency, and program CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS—Con. Commerce and Transportation—Continued Federal Communications Commission: Facilities BUDGET AUTHORITY 1971 1972 1973 actual estimate estimate 0) Total commerce and transportation 20,000.3 .6 .7 6,685.2 6,401.5 OUTLAYS 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate .3 .6 5,498.9 6,112.7 6,496.1 710.2 -710.3 825.0 -815.0 900.0 -890.0 2.0 3.7 0) Community Development and Housing Department of Housing and Urban Development: Low-rent public housing: Loans Repayments New community assistance grants __ _ _ _ _ _ Grants for neighborhood facilities . Grants for water and sewer facilities Public facility loans Repayments Liquidating programs: Loans Repayments Federal Home Loan Bank Board: Headquarters __ Total community development and housing _ Education and Manpower Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Office of Education: Schools in federally affected areas: At Federal installations Grants _ Higher education facilities: Grants _ Loans Repayments Libraries and educational facilities (grants) _ Department of Housing and Urban Development: College housing loans Repayments See footnotes at end of table 5.0 5.0 5.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 22.5 35.0 35.0 350.0 4.9 -5.9 500.0 7.5 -7.0 120.6 42.8 -5.9 130.0 41.5 -7.0 150. D 8.2 -8.0 41.7 -8.0 2.0 -.5 -.6 -.5 -6.7 _ 5 .1 3.0 3.0 393.9 545.5 45.2 181.4 213.5 228.2 10.9 3.0 8.3 11.0 15.9 2.8 16.6 5.6 15.7 7.6 17.6 43.0 29.9 192.7 17.4 -1.9 134.9 74.8 7.1 9.5 9.6 4.8 -2.0 -2.2 12.8 10.5 8.0 79.8 -31.6 55.9 -32.7 49.5 -33.6 SPECIAL ANALYSES 275 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)-Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY 1972 1971 OUTLAYS 1973 1971 actual 1972 1973 CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS-Con. Education and Manpower— Continued Department of the Interior: Bureau of Indian Affairs: Schools and other facilities: Direct work Grants Bureau of Mines: Mine health and safety academy National Science Foundation: Research facilities Smithsonian Institution: Museums and the Kennedy Center _ Total education and manpower. 19.8 42.6 .5 . 47.6 32.4 43.7 .5 47.4 7.0 13.0 7.0 6.1 6.3 5.2 4.0 5.2 2.7 3.4 46.4 5.0 17.0 7.2 93.6 111.3 129.2 331.2 262.7 193.2 _ 5.0 4.0 9.0 Health Department of Health, Education, and Welfare: Food and Drug Administration: Buildings Health Services and Mental Health Administration: Grants for mental health centers Grants for medical facilitiesLoans for medical facilities. Indian health facilities: Direct work Grants. : : ___.___.___Other facilities, including St. Elizabeths Hospital 2. National Institutes of Health: Grants for health, educational research, and library facilities . Buildings and facilities,..Social Security Administration: Buildings and district offices (trustfunds) Total health See footnotes at end of table. __ 0) 70.9 30.0 91.8 30 0 34.0 15.4 104.1 15.1 88.8 10.1 71.9 18.7 30.2 .3 43.7 19.6 33.3 1.4 34.3 .4 .5 .8 20.4 6.4 9.4 11.0 98.9 114.0 3.6 1.4 8.5 101.5 3.1 99.1 5.5 78.7 7.0 .4 4.0 1.5 .4 4.0 1.7 219.4 281.9 114.4 250.6 260.6 224.1 7.2 276 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual 1972 estimate OUTLAYS 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS—Continued I n c o m e Security Social Security Administration: Buildings and district offices (trustfunds) 2.5 18.7 10.8 2.5 18.7 11.0 1. 5 3.3 .1 9.1 .2 1. 0 1 2 2.5 .4 5.0 .2 59. 0 93.4 155.0 80. 2 107.4 96.0 7. 5 8.0 8.7 4.0 5.3 Veterans Benefits and Services Department of Defense—Civil: Army: Cemeteries Soldiers' Home (trust fund) _. Veterans Administration: Medical care facilities Grants fcr construction of State extended care facilities ___ Corregidor-Bataan Memorial. Total veterans benefits and services 2. 9 0) 0) 68. 1 104.8 16.2 72.6 173.0 84. 4 114.3 106.5 3.1 10.8 32.9 4.2 4.5 General Government Legislative branch: Architect of the Capitol: Buildings and James Madison Memorial Library United States Tax Court: Court building Department of Defense—Civil: Army: Power and water systems, Ryukyu Islands: Loan repayments Panama Canal: Improvements Department of the Interior: Office of Territorial Affairs: Public facilities in Samoa, Guam, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands: Grants Loans Repayments Alaska public works: Loan repayments.... Department of Justice: Immigration and Naturalization Service: Border facilities Federal Prison System: Prison facilities Law Enforcement Assistance Administration: Grants for police stations, correctional institutions, and court buildings See footnotes at end of table. 18.7 —.4 —.4 —.4 —.4 -.4 -.4 1.0 3.0 4.3 1.5 3.1 5.0 31.2 4.5 —.4 28.3 5.4 —.5 23.4 3.9 -.7 19.6 2.5 -.4 40. 3 7. 0 5 36.2 5.0 -.7 -~p - « 1.6 .2 18.4 47.6 49.1 79.3 .6 1. 3 .2 38.5 1.9 11. 1 24.3 92.8 10.2 40.3 63.7 SPECIAL ANALYSES 277 Table Q-8. FEDERAL-PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency—Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY OUTLAYS Function, agency, and program 1971 .ctual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate CIVIL PUBLIC WORKS-Continued General Government—Con. Treasury Department: Federal Law Enforcement Training Center Bureau of Customs: Border facilities Bureau of Engraving and Printing: Air conditioning. Bureau of the Mint: Philadelphia and Denver Mints. Secret Service: Training facilities General Services Administration: Construction of public buildings, sites and planningCentral Intelligence Agency: Headquarters District of Columbia: Loans... Repayments Grant to Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority Total general government 5.0 21.0 .2 .2 1.5 2.0 7.5 6.0 .2 .2 .2 .1 .2 2.2 1.1 .6 .2 2.7 225.4 294.4 247.9 122.6 199.1 308.2 -4.0 102.1 -4.9 149.2 -5.9 51.2 -4.0 0) 177.0 -4.9 177.0 -5.9 180.0 188.0 182.8 34.8 89.4 163.7 527.8 856.7 738.1 247.1 587.0 822.6 12,960.2 H, 926.2 9,236.5 Total civil public works. _ 27,431.7 NATIONAL DEFENSE PUBLIC WORKS Department of Defense—Military: Inter service activities: Construction, Defense agencies Family housing Civil defense: Grants for emergency centers Civil defense facilities. Army: Construction Construction, Army Reserve Construction, Army National Guard: Grants Direct work Navy: Construction _ _ Construction, Naval Reserve.. _ _ _ See footnotes at end of table. .2 .6 12.4 107.6 16.2 177.0 25.6 195.0 6.0 3.0 4.5 .9 2.8 .5 5.5 .5 46.1 217.8 14.1 311.8 48.2 342.7 3.2 4.5 .5 11, 249.3 12,081.7 590.9 489.8 961.2 428.1 545.0 502.0 10.0 33.5 38.2 4.8 11.2 23.5 7.9 7.1 8.9 20.1 13.2 26.8 8.4 4.8 6.3 8.3 14.7 305.1 359.3 554.2 308.5 453.4 296.7 5.0 10.9 16.0 1.8 8.2 8.9 8.3 278 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table Q-8. FEDERAL PUBLIC WORKS ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars)—Con. By major function and agency —Continued BUDGET AUTHORITY Function, agency, and program 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate OUTLAYS 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate NATIONAL DEFENSE PUBLIC WORKS—Con. Department of Defense—Military—Continued Air Force: Construction. __ Construction, Air Force Reserve... ___. Construction, Air National Guard 284.3 289.9 317.2 251.9 290.0 261.0 4.0 6.6 7.0 3.5 5.0 5.7 8.0 10.6 10.6 15.2 9.1 10.6 Total, Department of Defense-Military. _ Atomic Energy Commission: Facilities 1,489.9 1,560.0 2,342.2 1,152.9 1,534.7 1,358.0 206.1 200.0 273.2 242.9 236.6 236.9 1,760.0 2,615.5 1,395.8 1,771.3 1,594.9 10,632.3 13,020.6 13,676.6 Total national defense public works 1,696.0 Total civil and defense public works 29,127.7 1 2 3 14,720.2 14,541.6 Less than $50 thousand. Includes amounts from trust funds. Includes amounts from predecessor program financed from general funds. SPECIAL ANALYSIS R FEDERAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS The 1973 budget reflects the understanding that research and development make significant contributions to economic growth and the quality of American life. On the basis of this understanding it is clear that a long-range strategy is needed to strengthen the overall national effort in science and technology. This has been and will continue to be a key objective of this Administration. Investment in research and development since 1969 by the Federal Government, and the increases proposed for 1973, bear this out. Total Federal obligations for the conduct of research and development will increase from $16.4 billion in 1972 to $17.8 billion m 1973. In addition, $0.8 billion will be obligated for research and development facilities in 1973. The 1973 budget accelerates efforts to: —Turn science and technology to the service of man in such key problem areas as health, transportation, energy, and the environment; —Strengthen the Nation's defense capabilities; —Increase emphasis on useful applications in the space program; and —Strengthen support of basic research on which the future of the Nation's science and technology ultimately depends. Beyond this, provision is made in the 1973 budget for: —Experimental programs to strengthen further the partnership between government and industry through Federal cost sharing in research and development efforts in industrial laboratories, industrial research associations, and cooperative efforts among universities, industry and government laboratories. These experimental efforts will be supported by additional funds provided to the National Science Foundation and the National Bureau of Standards. —Special efforts to expand research and development to meet long-range goals, including projects that draw on the technical capabilities of the Atomic Energy Commission and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. These new beginnings to a more strategic approach to the Nation's research and development should not only improve the ability to deal with a wide-range of civilian problems but also lead to the creation of new markets, new jobs, and improvement in this country's world trade position. 279 280 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT Conduct of Research and Development — Oblations 1964 1965 Fiscal Years 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Estimate The 1973 budget includes funds for substantial increases in several programs which have been initiated in the last 3 years, as well as for new efforts to focus scientific and technological capabilities on specific problems of concern to the Nation. Examples of some of the more significant program expansions or new directions include: • An increase of $88 million for research and development to help meet the Nation's needs for electrical energy without damage to the environment. • An additional $43 million for research and development on natural hazards to improve capabilities to control, predict, or reduce destruction from fires, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and severe storms. • Expansion by nearly $100 million for research on cancer. • An increase of $90 million in research and development by Transportation and Commerce to provide fast, safe, and pollution-free transportation. • Growth of $73 million in NASA's research and development programs which have greater direct benefits to society, such as weather prediction, communications, and aeronautics. • Significant expansion of problem-related research programs by the National Science Foundation to permit an increase of more than 40% in research on problems such as preventing environ SPECIAL ANALYSES 281 mental degradation through better land use, improving municipal services through the application of science and technology, and improving materials and manufacturing processes to advance economic productivity. • An additional $40 million to explore ways of stimulating the overall national investment in and use of science and technology. The increase of $767 million in the Defense budget for research and development and related facilities in 1973 will: • Strengthen our sea-based retaliatory capabilities in order to assure the continued effectiveness of our strategic deterrent. • Provide new capabilities and increased effectiveness for our general purpose forces. • Provide for additional efforts in the test and evaluation of systems before commitment to production. • Expand the scientific and technological base that underlies future military strength. The 1973 budget continues the trend of the past 3 years of substantial increases in research and development funding by the civilian agencies. The preceding chart shows the increase of about 65% since 1969 in obligations for research and development for purposes other than defense and space. Obligations for these civilian purposes have increased by $2,111 million, from $3,295 million in 1969 to $5,406 million in 1973. Table R-1. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT * (in millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Defense—Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Health, Education, and Welfare Atomic Energy Commission National Science Foundation Transportation Agriculture Interior Commerce Environmental Protection Agency Veterans Administration Office of Economic Opportunity Postal Service Housing and Urban Development Justice Labor.... Smithsonian Institution All other Total 1971 actual Expenditures 1972 1973 estimate estimate 1971 actual 1972 1973 estimate estimate 7,423 8,013 8,756 7,541 8,031 8.177 3,284 3.284 1,466 1,303 337 220 318 185 143 137 64 84 40 48 10 23 17 42 3,327 1,769 1,308 453 296 356 216 169 176 70 50 68 53 27 11 23 48 3,302 2,012 1,375 525 380 370 250 229 186 78 78 74 63 30 31 29 52 3,337 1,288 1,303 335 198 315 175 114 101 61 75 34 40 9 22 17 40 3,137 1,450 1,308 409 233 349 212 146 157 66 70 39 56 20 26 22 48 3,131 1,708 1,375 17,819 15,005 15,779 16,480 15,143 16,447 455 282 359 238 192 174 73 65 64 54 26 30 28 49 1 Detail in all tables may not add to totals due to rounding. In this table and tables R-3, R-4, and R-5 "obligations" and "expenditures" for AEC are both accrued costs which approximate cost in the conduct and support of research and development by Federal agencies. In some cases this analysis ysis excludes excluc demonstration activities which elsewhere may be considered as part of research and development. develo 282 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES Obligations for the construction or renovation of facilities or acquisition of major items of equipment for the conduct of research and development will increase by $128 million, from $661 million in 1972 to $789 million in 1973. The estimated obligations for research and development facilities by the Atomic Energy Commission include $43 million for continued construction of the 200 Bev accelerator for high energy physics research near Chicago, and $21 million for continued construction of the fast flux test facility at Hanford, Wash., which will support the liquid metal fast breeder reactor development program. The increase for the National Science Foundation includes funds to begin construction of a very large array (VLA) antenna system which will be the most advanced radio astronomy facility in the world. The 1973 construction funds for NASA will provide for development and production facilities for the space shuttle, and modification of a facility for research on increasing efficiency and reducing pollution from jet engines. The increase for the Environmental Protection Agency includes funds to initiate construction of a major research laboratory at Cincinnati, Ohio. Table R-2. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES (in millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Atomic Energy Commission Defense—Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Transportation Environmental Protection Agency National Science Foundation Interior All other Total 1971 actual Expenditures 1972 1973 estimate estimate 1971 actual 1972 1973 estimate estimate 312 153 276 176 287 199 302 144 274 157 247 180 40 1! 1 31 12 84 31 3 33 18 91 49 36 38 24 44 10 0 39 7 43 28 1 31 12 60 38 7 35 25 31 40 65 61 76 82 599 661 789 607 622 675 RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES An important indicator of the extent of Federal support to assure the continued progress of science is the level of contract and grant funds to universities for research and development activities. The 1973 budget will once again provide a substantial growth in the total Federal support for the conduct of research and development at universities. Total obligations for this purpose will increase by 12%, from $2,020 million in 1972 to $2,257 million in 1973. Of even greater significance than the 1973 increase, is the increase in Federal support for research and development at universities since 1969. The chart on the next page graphically displays the increase of $785 million, or more than 53%, over 1969. 283 SPECIAL ANALYSES Conduct of Research and Development at Colleges and Universities $ Billions 2.5 .5 — 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Estimate Fiscal Years The 1973 budget continues the efforts of the past 2 years to encourage educational institutions to undertake more research focused on important national problems, including the problems of industry in improving economic productivity and introducing technological advances. The increase in research also will provide for the training of a greater number of science and engineering graduate students through employment on the research projects. Table R-3. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES » (in millions of dollars) Department or agency Health, Education, and Welfare National Science Foundation Defense—Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agriculture ... Atomic Energy Commission Commerce Mother Total 1 Obligations 1971 actual Expenditures 1971 actual • 1972 1973 estimate estimate 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 852 290 194 1,010 391 196 1,167 446 199 753 294 196 827 364 192 942 388 197 134 74 94 16 93 132 85 86 21 98 130 90 87 29 109 123 72 94 16 77 128 79 86 21 94 135 84 87 28 103 1,747 2,020 2,257 1,624 1,791 1,964 Amounts reported in this table are included in the totals for conduct of research and development in table R-l. 284 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 CONDUCT OF RESEARCH This section and the following section cover separately the conduct of research and the conduct of development, which are treated together in the sections above. The research programs supported or conducted by the Federal Government range from very fundamental research in such areas as astronomy and high energy physics, to research focused on specific problems such as reducing damage from hurricanes, or reducing noise from truck tires. The 1973 budget provides for increases in both the fundamental research efforts and the more applied or problem-focused efforts. For example, fundamental research support by the National Science Foundation will increase by more than 10% in 1973. At the same time, substantial increases are provided for research efforts focused on finding cures for cancer, improving disease prevention, exploring new means of providing needed energy, improving municipal services, and preventing environmental degradation. The 1973 budget clearly reflects the widening range of research efforts being supported or conducted by the Federal Government, as well as the overall increase in the level of support. Total obligations for research will increase from $6,631 million in 1972 to $7,133 million in 1973. Expenditures will increase from $6,049 million in 1972 to $6,436 million in 1973. The increase in Federal support for research since 1969 demonstrates the efforts made to assure the continued progress of science in this country and to focus more of our scientific resources on dealing with serious civilian problems. Total obligations for research in 1973 will be $1,935 million higher than the $5,198 million obligated in 1969, for an increase of 37%. Table R-4. CONDUCT OF RESEARCH (in millions of dollars) Obligations Department or agency Health, Education, and Welfare Defense—Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Adistration National Science Foundation Atomic Energy Commission Agriculture Commerce Interior Transportation Veterans Administration Environmental Protection Agency Office of Economic Opportunity Smithsonian Housing and Urban Development Labor Justice AH other Total Expenditures 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,282 1,544 1,488 1,628 1,644 1,751 1.511 1,689 1,647 J97J actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,137 1,559 1,240 1,582 1,422 1,639 1,462 1,490 1,473 1971 actual 317 429 308 94 132 65 62 54 26 17 19 14 6 38 425 427 344 108 146 99 68 67 22 23 23 14 8 51 495 454 359 164 164 111 75 76 58 29 25 18 10 54 308 429 305 88 126 64 59 40 20 17 16 13 5 36 378 427 338 95 142 87 64 61 30 22 23 14 9 47 422 454 347 128 156 95 70 69 35 28 21 18 10 49 5,917 6,631 7,133 5,685 6,049 6,436 SPECIAL ANALYSES 285 CONDUCT OF DEVELOPMENT Development draws on knowledge gained from research for the design, testing, and evaluation of new and improved materials, processes, and systems. Federal funding for development has been mainly in support of defense, space, and atomic energy programs where the Government is the primary consumer of the products developed. The substantial increase in funding for development in 1973 includes an increase to meet defense requirements for new and improved weapons systems and equipment. There is an important increase in the Atomic Energy Commission's program to develop an economic and safe liquid metal fast breeder reactor to help meet this country's long range needs for electrical energy. There is also a significant increase for development by the Department of Transportation, particularly for improved air traffic control systems, improved highway safety, advanced rail systems, and innovative urban mass transportation systems. Although NASA's total obligations for development will increase only slightly in 1973, there will be a major change in program direction as the Apollo program is completed and development of a manned reusable space shuttle system is initiated. Total obligations for development will increase from $9,816 million in 1972 to $10,687 million in 1973; and expenditures will increase from $9,732 million in 1972 to $10,046 million in 1973. Table R-5. CONDUCT OF DEVELOPMENT (in millions of dollars) Obligations D nartm nt or Expenditures a nrv 1971 actual Defense—Military functions National Aeronautics and Space Administration Atomic Energy Commission Health, Education, and Welfare Transportation Environmental Protection Agency Interior Commerce Postal Service Housing and Urban Development National Science Foundation Justice Office of Economic Opportunity All other Total 1971 actual • 1972 1973 estimate estimate 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 5,879 6,385 7,005 5,982 6,449 6,538 1,773 874 184 155 83 53 49 39 29 19 5 58 27 1,637 881 281 197 109 70 61 59 30 28 18 28 32 1,654 921 368 269 110 86 65 64 38 31 20 20 36 1,876 874 151 134 60 49 26 32 24 27 5 55 26 1,648 881 210 147 96 70 50 33 34 32 11 40 32 1,660 921 286 188 105 82 65 56 32 33 15 30 35 9,227 9,816 10,687 9,321 9,732 10,046 286 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 197 3 PROGRAMS OF AGENCIES WITH MAJOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY The total Department of Defense budget plan for research and development, including facilities, will increase by $767 million over the 1972 level, reaching a total of $8,955 million. For the conduct of research, 1973 funding is estimated to increase by $123 million to a level of $1,751 million, thus strengthening the technology base essential to the development of new military systems. Areas of emphasis will include oceanography, biomedical research, atmospheric sciences, electronics, and materials research. The budget plan for development programs and operation of test and evaluation facilities will rise to $7,005 million in 1973, an increase of $620 million above the 1972 level. Major increases will be provided for programs in the strategic area in order to assure the continued effectiveness of our deterrent capability. In particular, additional funds will be provided for improvement of our sea-based strategic deterrent. Other strategic programs that will undergo continued development include the B-l aircraft, the subsonic cruise armed decoy (SCAD) for bomber penetration, the airborne warning and control system (AWACS) for air defense, and the Safeguard and prototype Hardsite antiballistic missile defense systems. Increases will also be provided for systems to improve the capabilities of our general purpose forces. These include: for the Air Force, the F-15 air superiority fighter, and the A-X close air support fighter; for the Navy, the F-14B fleet air defense fighter/interceptor, the Aegis fleet air defense missile system, surface effects ship prototypes, antiship cruise missile systems, and undersea surveillance systems for antisubmarine warfare; for the Army, the SAM-D air defense missileT system, the utility tactical transport aircraft system (UTTAS), a new prototype main battle tank, the mechanized infantry combat vehicle (MICV), and the armored reconnaissance scout vehicle (ARSV). The joint service heavy lift helicopter program will be accelerated. In addition, increases will be provided for new programs including prototype lightweight fighters, vertical/short takeoff and landing aircraft, and accurate terminal-homing missiles. Electronic warfare, defense suppression, and target acquisition systems will also receive more emphasis in order to improve our combat effectiveness against sophisticated air defenses. Support of operational testing and evaluation of weapons systems will increase in order to provide assurance of effective systems performance prior to a production commitment. Partially offsetting these increases are decreases for programs phasing down or completing development. These include the Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile system, the Poseidon fleet ballistic missile system, the F-14A fighter/interceptor, the Army Dragon antitank missile system, the S-3A antisubmarine warfare aircraft, and the F-5E international fighter. In addition, funding for support of the satellite control facility will be transferred in 1973 from SPECIAL ANALYSES 287 the Air Force research, development, test, and evaluation appropriation to the Air Force operations and maintenance appropriation and, therefore, is not included in the 1973 development total. A more detailed explanation of research and development trends is given in the budget appendix on pages 311-319. Table R-6. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE—MILITARY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (in millions of dollars) Purpose and budget title Conduct of research and development: Research, development, test, and evaluation: Military sciences Aircraft and related equipment Missiles and related equipment Military astronautics and related equipment Ships, small craft, and related equipment Ordnance, combat vehicles, and related equipment Other equipment Programwide management and support Emergency fund Other appropriations Total, conduct of research and development 1971 actual 498 1972 estimate 527 1973 estimate 563 1,707 2.043 1,984 1,946 1,948 2,383 462 278 296 404 411 337 454 429 331 1.346 1,515 1,692 341 478 50 360 548 50 358 7,423 8,013 8,756 451 NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION All activities of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration are classified as research and development and are included in this analysis. With the completion of the Apollo program in calendar year 1972 and Skylab in calendar year 1973, the development of a manned reusable space shuttle system will give the space program new direction by providing a more economical means for transporting men and equipment to and from space. By about 1979 the space shuttle will begin to reduce the cost of space operations in earth orbit by recovering satellites for refurbishment and reuse, repairing satellites onorbit, and reusing launch vehicles. The two remaining Apollo missions, which will provide over 50% of the lunar exploration time in the Apollo program, are designed to obtain maximum scientific return since they represent the last U.S. exploration of the moon for this decade. The Skylab experimental space station will test man's ability to live and work in space for up to 56 days, conduct an extensive study of the sun, and survey earth resources. Funding for the planetary program will support Mariner or Pioneer class spacecraft for the exploration of Jupiter and Saturn in the late 1970's. Development will be continued on two Viking unmanned orbiter/lander spacecraft scheduled to be launched to Mars in 1975. An increase will occur in space astronomy for development of^the high energy astronomy observatory which will study celestial X-ray and gamma-ray sources and cosmic rays. The first experimental earth resources technology satellite will test spacecraft and sensors able to 288 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 survey the earth's resources from space. Work will continue on advancing satellite capabilities in communications, navigation, geodesy, and meteorology. A program to define alternative advanced propulsion systems, including a small nuclear rocket, will be conducted. The current NERVA nuclear rocket program will be terminated. Development will be accelerated on a short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft to provide technology for improved short haul transportation systems. In addition, increased emphasis will be placed on technology for quieting jet engines. NASA's capabilities will also be used, where appropriate, to assist other agencies in solving civilian problems, such as developing new modes of transportation. Table R-7. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATIONRESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (in millions of dollars) Program and type of activity Conduct of research: Manned space flight Space sciences Space applications Space research and technology Aeronautical research and technology Nuclear power and propulsion Supporting activities Research and program management 1971 actual 1972 1973 202 312 163 107 100 23 158 412 192 446 184 75 110 22 146 414 109 554 201 66 163 10 141 403 Total, research plan Conduct of development: Manned space flight Space sciences Space applications Nuclear power and propulsion Supporting activities Research and program management 1,477 1,589 1,647 1,220 75 14 32 136 310 1,093 91 20 6 123 312 1,116 85 23 11 122 298 Total, development plan 1,787 1,645 1,65 HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE Obligations for research and development by the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare will increase by $243 million, from $1,769 million in 1972 to $2,012 million in 1973. Biomedical research and development will continue to grow in 1973. These funds support a broad range of activities, from basic research to understand fundamental biological life processes, to accelerated efforts focused on bringing about more rapid advances in the prevention and treatment of a wide range of disease. Areas to receive continued emphasis include research on heart and lung disease, sickle cell anemia, dental caries, family planning, infant and child health, environmental pollution, drug abuse, and alcoholism. Funding for cancer research will increase to $430 million in 1973, from $337 million in 1972. Further details about Federal biomedical programs may be found in Special Analysis K of this volume. SPECIAL ANALYSES 289 In the education area, the proposed National Institute of Education is to serve as the national focal point for educational research and development. With a budget of $125 million in 1973, the Institute will assume responsibility for Office of Education research programs and support new ventures as well. The Institute will work to produce, develop, and test new educational products and practices to meet priority needs. Table R-8. HEALTH, EDUCATION, AND WELFARE—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT A N D RELATED FACILITIES (in millions of dollars) Activity Conduct of research and development: National Institutes of Health Health Services and Mental Health Administration Education programs Social and Rehabilitation Service Food and Drug Administration Allother Subtotal, research and development Research and development facilities Total obligations..- _ 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,018 212 131 60 22 23 1,246 240 142 73 38 30 1,395 257 197 74 56 33 1,466 1 1,769 14 2,012 14 1,467 1,783 2,026 ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION Operating costs of the Atomic Energy Commission for conduct of research and development will increase from $1,308 million in 1972 to $1,375 million in 1973, and obligations for related construction and equipment will total $287 million in 1973, as compared to $276 million in 1972. AEC's basic and applied research programs include investigations in the physical sciences in order to develop a fundamental understanding of the properties and behavior of both matter and energy, studies in the biomedical sciences on the effect of radiation on living systems in order to assess, evaluate, and control radiation exposure to man and the environment, and research related to weapons technology and detection techniques. Funds for research programs will increase by approximately $27 million from the 1972 level. Emphasis will be placed on the controlled thermonuclear fusion research program, which seeks to develop another source of clean energy for the long term future. AEC will intensify its environmental research in 1973 to gain a fuller understanding of the effects of radiation upon the environment. Outlays for research in high energy physics will increase. AEC's development programs include design and testing of nuclear weapons, process development in support of nuclear material production activities, development of techniques and facilities for long-term storage of radioactive wastes, development of advanced reactors for power and propulsion, and development of peaceful uses of radioisotopes and nuclear explosives. Funds for development programs will increase by about $40 million from the 1972 level. 480-700 O—72 290 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 AEC's top priority civilian program is the development of an economic liquid-metal fast-breeder power reactor. This program will be further accelerated in 1973 in order to demonstrate the large scale technical feasibility of this concept by 1980. The fast breeder is expected to play an important part in meeting the growing national needs for clean energy. Partially offsetting the increase in development programs are the reductions due to the decision to reduce the level of the space propulsion reactor program, and to the phase-out of a special underground nuclear weapons test activity at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The AEC budget for research and development facilities in 1973 provides for obligations of $287 million, which is $11 million more than the 1972 level. Included in the 1973 amount is $43 million of obligations for continuation of construction of the 200 Bev accelerator for high-energy physics near Chicago, and $21 million of obligations for continued construction of the fast flux test facility at Hanford, Wash., which will support the liquid metal fast breeder reactor development program. Table R-9. ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION—RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND RELATED FACILITIES (in Bullions of dollars) Activity Conduct of research: Physical research.... Biomedical research Weapons research Other programs. __ ____ Total, conduct of research, obligations Conduct of development: Reactor development Weapons development and testing Special nuclear materials (production) Plowshare Other programs Total, conduct of development, obligations Research and development facilities, obligations Total obligations 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 271 86 71 1 268 89 69 1 283 92 78 1 429 427 454 428 398 26 7 15 452 377 30 7 15 874 881 485 377 34 7 18 921 312 276 287 1,615 1,584 1,662 NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION N ational Science Foundation obligations for research, development, and related facilities will increase by $77 million, from $486 million in 1972 to $563 million in 1973. This increase will permit: (1) Expanded and strengthened fundamental research efforts in such fields as chemistry, biology, astronomy, and the environmental sciences; (2) a substantial growth in problem-focused research efforts to help provide the science and technology needed to enhance environmental quality, improve economic growth and productivity, and more effectively deal with significant social problems; and (3) SPECIAL ANALYSES 291 exploration of new ways to encourage the application of science and technology to the needs of industry, States, and local government. The significant expansion of problem-related research activities will permit more intensive and comprehensive research efforts on problems such as improving municipal services, preventing environmental degradation, improving availability of energy through solar power, developing advanced tunneling technology, and designing earthquake resistant buildings. A significant new program will be initiated in 1973 to explore ways of increasing industrial and other non-Federal investment in research and development, speed up the application of research and development results to improve products and services, and increase productivity through the application of science and technology. Also, a new national research and development assessment program will be initiated with the principal objective of improving our knowledge of how research and development can improve economic growth and productivity and enhance our international trade position. The Foundation's scientific research project support will be increased substantially again in 1973 to permit continued growth in the fundamental research efforts supported by this program. There will be a substantially stronger role for NSF in supporting fundamental materials and engineering research, to help assure a strong U.S. capability in these areas which are vital in bringing about technological innovation. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Obligations for the Department of Transportation for research and development, including facilities, will increase from $327 million in 1972 to $428 million in 1973. For ground transportation obligations will increase by over 50%, from $156 million in 1972 to $235 million in 1973. An increase of $14 million in the highway safety program will be allocated for research on the effects of alcohol on driving, experimental safety vehicles, and crash survival for motor vehicles. In addition, funds will be used for improved highway design and operation, reduction of traffic congestion, and highway and bridge structural safety. In the case of railroads, obligations will increase by $33 million in 1973. Major program increases are for advanced systems such as a 300 m.p.h. tracked air cushion research vehicle, Metroliner improvements, and construction and operations at the High Speed Ground Test Center near Pueblo, Colo. Urban mass transit research and development, which will increase by $17 million, will stress improved bus design, bus pollution control, bus priority systems, and research on new technology transit systems. Air transportation obligations will increase to $112 million in 1973, permitting an increase of $24 million for air traffic control and navigation systems and aircraft noise reduction. The major emphasis will be on the development of new, automated air traffic control systems which will increase the safety and efficiency of the Nation's airports and airways. Activities will also continue to improve and expand the capacity of existing air traffic and navigation systems. 292 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 In cooperation with NASA, efforts will be accelerated to investigate the feasibility of achieving significant aircraft engine noise reduction through improved design features. Water transportation obligations will total $40 million in 1973. The major concentration of effort will be devoted to maritime pollution control systems development, all-weather marine traffic and related aids to navigation systems, and increased search effectiveness. In all of the Department's research and development projects, increased effort will be given to the environmental effects of transportation and to the study of multi- and inter-modal transportation systems and technology. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Obligations for the Department of Agriculture for research and development, excluding related facilities, will increase from $356 million in 1972 to $370 million in 1973. The cooperative relationships with the State Agricultural Experiment Stations and schools of forestry will be further strengthened in 1973 by provision of additional funds for Federal sharing of increased costs of research. Additional funding is provided for research relating to rural development, analysis of the comparative advantage of the United States in world agricultural trade, and on the cost of controlling and adapting agricultural production to meet environmental standards. Increases are also provided for: (1) Accelerating development and pilot testing of safer means of pest control, (2) developing safer, more effective and efficient means of suppressing forest fires, and (3) expanding overseas research of value to U.S. agriculture and forestry. DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Research and development obligations by the Department of the Interior will increase from $216 million in 1972 to $250 million in 1973. Increases in 1973 provide for funding promising projects to reduce or control mineral pollutants, to expand efforts to meet future requirements for adequate supplies of clean fuels, and for implementation of a mined area protection program under proposed legislation. There will be a major increase in efforts to understand the causes of earthquakes, and to study means of controlling or limiting the size of earthquakes. This will require an improved understanding of geologic principles and processes. Research and development efforts also will be expanded to provide: (1) a more accurate appraisal of the Nation's mineral resources, including the outer Continental Shelf; (2) new or improved methods, techniques and instruments for mineral exploration; (3) a better understanding of basic principles of hydrology necessary for the appraisal and evaluation of the Nation's water resources, including the effects of underground waste disposal; (4) improved application of environmental resource data in urban decision making processes; and (5) improved application of satellite acquired data in the earth science and marine resources fields. Research is continuing on health and safety problems in coal and metal nonmetallic mining. A program to develop criteria for Federal SPECIAL ANALYSES 293 schedules to regulate the approval and certification of mining machines, equipment and devices also is continuing. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Research and development by the Department of Commerce will increase by $60 million to $229 million in 1973. The primary agencies conducting research in the Department are the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NO A A), the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) and the Maritime Administration (MARAD). Obligations for research and development by NOAA will increase by nearly 25%, from $100 million in 1972, to $124 million in 1973. Since it was established in 1970, NOAA's research and development programs have emphasized improving the scientific knowledge base necessary to attain national goals such as improved weather prediction, reduced losses from natural disasters, and better utilization of our marine resources. In 1973 NOAA will significantly expand its efforts to develop the capability to modify hurricanes to reduce the loss of life and property from these storms. It will also increase research to improve understanding of earthquakes and to help develop a capability to predict potentially disastrous quakes. Oceanic research and development efforts will be increased to improve our knowledge of ocean processes to permit more effective use, development and conservation of our marine resources. There will be increased activities in mapping of the Continental Shelf to identify energy and mineral resources. (Further details regarding Federal marine science activities will be contained in the annual report of the Interagency Committee on Marine Science and Engineering.) The National Bureau of Standards' research and development program will increase by nearly 80%, from $35 million in 1972 to $62 million in 1973. NBS will initiate a new program in 1973 to explore ways of stimulating more research in the private sector of the economy, to produce new and better quality goods and services, increase national productivity, and improve our international trade position. Research efforts to reduce loss of life and property from fires will be expanded. NBS will expand its research programs to develop standards and measurements to contribute to the national goals of improving our environment, health, and safety. Pollution measurement standards and standardization in computer technology will also be emphasized. In response to the Administration's interest and concern in the shipbuilding industry, MARAD will emphasize research to serve the maritime industry by increasing industry competitiveness. Concentration will be on shipboard automation, new propulsion, and new ship systems such as the advanced tug-barge concept. 294 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Obligations for the conduct of research and development by the Environmental Protection Agency are expected to increase to $186 million in 1973. Research and development relating to pollution sources and effects will be continued and expanded, particularly in determining the health effects of air pollutants and tracing the relationship between air pollution emissions and ambient air quality so that the most beneficial and cost effective control measures can be adopted. EPA will continue a substantial program in the development of pollution control technology. It will also develop and implement a new strategy to encourage greater private sector involvement in the development, demonstration, and application of equipment and processes for the abatement and control of pollution. The new strategy reflects the growing market for pollution control technology, the potential industrial capability in this area, and the strong desirability of involving non-Federal sectors to a far greater extent than in the past. EPA is redirecting its solid waste management program to focus research on environmental effects of solid waste disposal activities and on economic and institutional factors relating to solid waste management. VETERANS ADMINISTRATION Obligations for research and development activities of the Veterans Administration will increase from $70 million ia 1972 to $78 million in 1973. As part of the effort to upgrade the quality of medical care provided to veterans, VA is expanding research in such areas as pulmonary, coronary and kidney disease, drug dependency and alcoholism. Efforts to develop new or improved prosthetic and sensor}7" aids will also be increased. OFFICE OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY The Office of Economic Opportunity will continue a substantial research and development effort with 1973 obligations of $77.8 million, compared to $50 million in 1972. The Office will continue to emphasize experiments designed to test the effectiveness of private market mechanisms for delivering social services to the poor. Other research and development efforts will include analysis of the causes of poverty, identification of needs, and the design, conduct, and evaluation of social experiment projects with the objective of alleviating poverty and promoting equality of opportunity. DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT The Department of Housing and Urban Development will expand its basic Research and Technology program by $15 million in 1973, a 33% increase over 1972. This increase will result in obligations of $63 million for research and development in 1973. In 1973, Federal dollar support for Operation Breakthrough will be phasing out as this major demonstration is completed and emphasis is shifted to encouraging volume production and marketing of the housing systems. SPECIAL ANALYSES 295 Major experiments in the areas of housing allowances and improved management of public housing will move into full field implementation in 1973, based on planning, development and initiation work underway in 1972. Efforts which have the objective of increasing the capabilities of all levels of government to understand and deal with the processes of community development will be continued. Such efforts include developing municipal and regional information systems, gathering and evaluating data on housing and mortgage markets, applying university resources to urban problems, and improving community facilities and services. SPECIAL ANALYSIS S FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAMS This analysis identifies Federal funding for selected environmental activities in three selected categories: • Pollution control and abatement activities; • Selected activities to protect and enhance the environment; and • Activities to understand, describe and predict environmental conditions. Information is also included on Federal assistance for sewer and water system construction. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT The Federal Government's commitment for programs to control and abate pollution has grown dramatically over the past few years. [In millions of dollars] Budget authority Obligations Outlays 1969 estimate 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 775 830 685 1,432 1,071 751 1,823 2,017 1,149 3,258 3,288 1,975 3,419 3,612 2,440 Budget authority being requested in 1973 is more than four times that appropriated in 1969. Obligations also reflect more than a fourfold increase and outlays more than a threefold increase over the same 4-year period. The largest portion of funding is for grants to State and local governments for construction of municipal sewage treatment facilities. The number of individuals served by secondary sewage treatment facilities has grown from 91 million in 1969 to 103 million in 1971 and is expected to reach 115 million by 1973, 130 million by 1975 and 146 million by 1977. Largely because of construction backlog, there currently is about $7 billion worth of waste treatment facilities for which Federal assistance has been committed for which construction is incomplete or not yet under contract. This backlog does not include funds becoming available for obligation in 1972 or those requested for 1973. Grants also provide support for pollution control agency operations and for planning. Outlays for all grants will increase by 23% over 1972, from $1,014 million to $1,250 million. 296 SPECIAL ANALYSES 297 Table S-l. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Type of activity Financial aid to State and local governments Research and development Federal abatement and control operations Manpower development Reduce pollution from Federal facilities Other pollution control and abatement activities Separate transmittal 1 Total Budget authority 1971 actual 1972 estimate Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,082 442 2,121 516 2,123 599 554 366 1,014 474 1,250 561 136 19 198 18 219 15 92 17 189 18 206 14 116 280 315 74 186 272 49 124 113 35 45 94 115 22 1,823 3,258 3,419 1,149 1,975 2,440 1 Not reflected in preceding activity lines are proposals that will be transmitted subsequently for an estimated $35 million in budget authority and $22 million in outlays in 1973 for EPA for implementing legislation proposed by the administration. Outlays will also increase by 18%, from $474 million to $561 million, for research and development activities, which include efforts to determine and describe pollution sources and effects and to develop and demonstrate technology for monitoring and controlling pollution. Outlays for direct Federal pollution control operations will increase by 9%, from $189 million to $206 million. This includes planning; monitoring and surveillance; standard setting and enforcement; and technical assistance. Funding for manpower development activities will decline somewhat, reflecting the steady growth in the number of people interested in and available for positions in environmental activities. Outlays will increase by 46% in 1973, from $186 million to $272 million, primarily in the Departments of Defense and Agriculture for remedial projects to reduce pollution from Federal facilities. Agencies involved.—Major Federal activities to control and abate pollution were consolidated in the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on December 2, 1970. However, a number of other agencies carry on important pollution control activities, as indicated in table S-2." 298 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Table S-2. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT AGENCY (in millions of dollars) ACTIVITIES—BY Budget authority Agency Environmental Protection Agency1 Defense-Military Atomic Energy Commission.. __ Transportation Agriculture Defense-Civil Interior Commerce General Services Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation. __ Other agencies Total 1971 actual 1972 estimate Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,303 134 124 52 71 8 46 25 4 2,448 214 139 66 108 50 104 30 18 2,481 314 158 91 106 56 87 34 718 82 122 22 67 7 45 20 2 1,287 130 136 56 107 50 87 26 2 1,544 235 154 79 139 56 82 30 5 25 10 22 33 12 37 29 16 46 25 9 31 30 11 53 29 15 72 1,823 3,258 3,419 1,149 1,975 2,440 1 Funding shown above for EPA has been adjusted to include activities actually carried on by the Departments of HEW, Agriculture, and Interior; AEC and Federal Radiation Council prior to December 2, 1970. The budget authority adjustment is $14 million in 1971 and the outlay adjustment is $17 million. Outlays for EPA will increase by 20% in 1973, from $1,287 million to $1,544 million. Continued emphasis will be placed on EPA's program of grants for sewage treatment facilities to assist State and localities in reducing the Nation's backlog of municipal treatment facility needs. Grants up to 55% of total eligible project costs are made to construct municipal sewage treatment facilities. Appropriations for this program were $214 million in 1969, $800 million in 1970, $1 billion in 1971, and $2 billion in 1972. Another $2 billion is being requested for 1973. Several new efforts will be undertaken by EPA to define pollution control objectives and determine the most cost-effective solutions. Research will be expanded in health effects of air pollution to determine more accurately the concentrations of pollutants that are dangerous to human health, and in urban-regional scale modeling of relationships among air pollution emissions, atmospheric conditions, and air to which segments of the population are exposed. EPA is reorienting its solid waste activities to focus upon economic and institutional constraints, with less attention to areas where the private sector is focusing its efforts—the development of hardware for recycling and other waste management activities. In addition, funding will be increased for State and local pollution control agency grants, enforcement activities, air pollution monitoring, and economic studies. The Congress has yet to complete action on legislation proposed for EPA by the administration on noise control, toxic substances, ocean dumping, pesticides, and water quality. Other agencies also carry out important pollution control and abatement activities. For example, the Department of Defense will continue to expand its R. & D. and action programs to reduce pollution from SPECIAL ANALYSES 299 its industrial production facilities, military bases, naval vessels, aircraft, and jet engine test facilities. Accomplishments include development of a new process for disposal of deteriorated explosives, development of biodegradable metal cleaners, reduction of smoke levels in propellants, and the development of a low pollution engine that is now being tested for use in automobiles. The Atomic Energy Commission will continue its major program of research, development, and monitoring relating to effects of ionizing radiation. Increases in 1973 are largely for research on the effects of thermal alteration of lakes, streams, and estuaries and to provide information on the amount and nature of radioactivity and other potential pollutants released to the environment. The Department of Agriculture makes grants and loans for waste treatment facilities in smaller localities and conducts research on agriculturally related pollution such as pesticides, an mal and crop processing wastes and fertilizer and plant nutrients. Progress has been made in reducing pollution from facilities n National forests by a minimization of stream pollution and sediment, and prevention of logging residue disposition in stream channels. The Department of the Interior will continue research relating to pollution sources and effects, will expand activities to reduce pollution from facilities in the national parks, and will increase research under pilot plant programs to develop methods of converting coal to fuel gas with less pollution. The Corps of Engineers will cont nue construction of dikes for the containment of polluted material dredged from Great Lakes harbors. The Department of Transportation will increase funding for work on reducing aircraft engine noise, studying environmental effects of aircraft, and reducing pollution from Coast Guard facilities. The Department of Commerce provides grants for waste treatment facilities from the Economic Development Administration. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conducts environmental monitoring and prediction activities related to air and water pollution. The National Bureau of Standards defines and tests environmental standards and measurements. The General Services Administration will continue work on pollution reduction at Federal installations us ng funds appropriated in previous years. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration activities consist primarily of research and development on reduction of aircraft noise. Media polluted and pollutants.—Pollution control and abatement activities are generally focused on reducing a variety of pollutants in air or water or particular classes of pollutants such as pesticides or radiation. Table S-3 summarizes the total Federal effort in terms of media polluted and also identifies funding associated with selected pollutants. Among the media, water pollution currently receives the greatest share—75%—of total Federal pollution control obligations. This large share is a result of grants and loans for construction of municipal waste treatment facilities. 300 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Air pollution control efforts account for 14% of the total. Federal efforts in 1973 include research and development, grants to State and local air pollution control agencies, and direct Federal operations such as monitoring, standard setting, and enforcement. Increased emphasis will be given in 1973 to improving knowledge of the health related effects of various concentrations of pollutants; and quantifying the health benefits that would result from their control. Activities relating to pollution of land are for research and other activities concerned with effects of acid mine drainage, nutrients, pesticides, and other substances. Federal pollution control activities relating to radiation, pesticides, solid wastes, and noise are largely confined to research relating to effects, control technology, and standard setting and enforcement. Table S-3. POLLUTION CONTROL AND ABATEMENT ACTIVITIES—BY MEDIA OR POLLUTANT (in millions of dollars) Media or pollutant Media polluted: Water: Construction grants and loans Other__ _ __ __. Air . ___ Land Other (e.g.. living things, materials) Multimedia (i.e., more than one of above) Total i Selected pollutants: 2 Solid wastes Pesticides Radiation Noise Obligations 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 1,285 248 245 49 136 53 2,052 487 433 60 194 63 2,176 510 506 64 246 74 2,017 3,288 3,577 46 36 137 41 61 48 144 57 64 51 152 61 1 Excludes $35 million in 1973 for EPA which will be proposed in a separate transmittal (see footnote for table S—1). 2 Funds for selected pollutants are included in the "media" breakdown above. Excluded from funding shown above for pollution control and abatement activities are: • Activities to reduce or avoid the use of pesticides funding for such activity is expected to be approximately $66 million in 1973, up from $57 million in 1972 for both research and education programs largely carried out by the Department of Agriculture; and • Activities that are carried on for some other primary purpose but which also contribute to the reduction of pollution. For example, extensive activities to hold soil in place to preserve soil productivity, such as those financed by the Department of Agriculture, and erosion control activities by Corps of Engineers and Department of Transportation (highways), have been excluded from this analysis even though these activities also serve to reduce sediment pollution of water. SPECIAL ANALYSES 301 RECREATION, PARKS, HISTORIC SITES, FISHERIES AND WILDLIFE PRESERVATION, AND ENHANCEMENT ACTIVITIES * Federal funding will increase for environmental protection and enhancement activities such as providing recreational areas, parks, historic sites, and fish and wildlife preservation. [In millions of dollars] Budget authority. Obligations.. __ Outlays _ __ _ __ ... 1971 actual 1972 estimate 870 752 674 1,056 1,061 887 1973 estimate 962 1,017 898 Protection and enhancement activities.—The Federal Government provides grants to State and local governments for acquiring land for recreational purposes, for preserving open space and historic properties, and for fish and wildlife refuges. Aid is also provided for research and planning, construction and maintenance of recreational facilities and wildlife refuges. Outlays for aid to State and local governments will increase by 10% from $272 million in 1972 to $299 million in 1973. The Federal Government also performs directly such activities as acquiring lands for the preservation of unique natural areas and for recreation, supporting sport fisheries and wildlife preservation activities, preserving historic properties, and conducting related functions. Environmental protection and enhancement activities include: • City recreation, which covers all federally assisted or direct Federal projects or activities (including historic preservation) which are located within incorporated places of 25,000 or more population. • Unique natural areas and endangered species, which covers all national parks, monuments, scenic rivers, trails, wilderness seashore and refuges for endangered species and similar non-Federal areas. • Noncity general recreation, which covers all national recreation areas, recreation programs in national forests, separable recreation costs for Federal water projects, and federally assisted State and local areas located outside incorporated places of 25,000 or more population. • Sport fish and wildlife, which covers all national wildlife refuges, national fish hatcheries and federally assisted projects serving similar purposes including rare and endangered species. • Historic preservation and rehabilitation, which covers all national historic sites, military parks, battlefields, and similar areas and federally assisted historic preservation and rehabilitation. • All other activities, which includes all Federal aid and direct Federal costs for general administration, planning, studies and similar activities not otherwise allocated. 1 The content of this category gy g y entitled t t e d "Selected environmenta rmenta differs from that of the category nhancement activities" in the 1972 budget special analysis. analysis The principal differences are exclusion enhancement beautific off the highway beautification program under DOT and exclusion of the grants made by EDA in ommerce for recreation development projects. Funding data are not available for 1969-70 in areas Commerce comparable bl to 1971-73. 197173 302 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 Table S-4. SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ENHANCEMENT ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Budget authority 1971 actual Financial aid to State and local governments: Purchase, development, and operations: City recreation Preserve unique natural areas and protect endangered species None ity general recreation. Sport fish and wildlife Historic preservation and rehabilitation All other State and local aid 1972 estimate Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 114 151 133 55 90 104 27 139 51 36 188 56 36 147 63 14 52 45 23 86 62 25 101 57 7 8 10 2 8 10 1 339 3 442 4 392 1 168 2 111 3 299 33 35 40 30 33 39 96 231 100 93 279 110 134 189 111 78 227 100 118 259 104 137 198 123 35 56 56 34 60 63 37 40 41 37 40 40 Subtotal 531 614 570 506 615 599 Total 870 1,056 962 674 887 898 Subtotal. Direct Federal activities: Purchase, development, and operations: City recreation Preserve unique natural areas and protect endangered species Noncity general recreation. Sport fish and wildlife Historic preservation and rehabilitation All other direct Federal activity Agencies involved.—The Department of the Interior accounts for approximately 70% of the environmental protection and enhancement activities described in this section. The Bureau of Outdoor Recreation promotes coordination of Federal outdoor recreation programs, and administers the land and water conservation fund which provide grants for planning, acquisition and development of State and local recreation areas and Federal purchases of nationally important lands. The 1973 budget for the land and water conservation fund continues the President's Legacy of Parks initiative by providing $197 million for grants to State and local governments to help them meet the increasing demand for local recreation areas, especially those located in or near major cities. The amount for grants in 1972, to launch the Legacy of Parks initiative, includes appropriation of unused prior year authorization and, therefore, is $58 million higher than the amount in 1973. In 1973, a total of $98 million is provided for Federal land purchases made by several agencies to SPECIAL ANALYSES 303 preserve nationally important natural and historic areas, including endangered species habitats. Newly authorized areas for which funds are provided to continue acquisition in 1973 are Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore, Voyageurs National Park, Gulf Islands National Seashore, and Chesapeake and Ohio Canal Historic Park. Emphasis will also be placed on acquisition of lands in older natural preservation areas and parks such as Everglades National Park. The Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife provides assistance to State and local governments for fish and wildlife restoration, management and research. The Bureau adminisisters 97 hatcheries, which help to support inland fisheries resources, and 329 units in the National Wildlife Refuge System which includes about 28 million acres, of which nearly 20 million acres are in Alaska. Endangered species, including nine mammals, 15 birds, and the alligator, are protected on 82 of the national wildlife refuges. The Bureau manages 256 wildlife refuges with 3.9 million acres for migratory waterfowl and 51 other areas with 4 million acres for other migratory birds. The National Park Service administers 284 areas comprising about 29 million acres located in 47 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These include national parks, monuments, historic sites, and national recreation areas which have been established to preserve the Nation's natural and historic heritage. In 1973 the Park Service will commence planning and design work for visitor facilities in the Nation's Capital and elsewhere for the American Revolution bicentennial. The Park Service also encourages the preservation of additional historic properties throughout the Nation by assisting the States and territories to conduct statewide historic preservation surveys and by making matching grants for individual preservation projects. The Bureau of Land Management protects and manages over 450 million acres—mainly in the Western States and Alaska. This land area represents 60% of all federally owned lands and 20% of America's total land base. Legislation proposed by this administration would establish a national policy that these national resource lands be managed under principles of multiple use and sustained yield in such a way as to protect the quality of the environment. An important ongoing program the bureau administers is the Johnny Horizon antilitter campaign on the public lands. The Bureau of Reclamation provides recreation facilities on some of the reservoir projects which it constructs. The Department of Housing and Urban Development provides grants to help States and localities acquire and develop open space lands. In 1973, the open space program will be folded into the new urban community development revenue sharing program, upon enactment of pending legislation. Consequently, the $100 million requested in 1973 for the open space program, which is the same as the 1972 appropriation, will be transferred to the revenue sharing program upon its enactment. This will allow increased flexibility for communities to meet recreational needs in their areas. The Department of Agriculture carries out a variety of environmental enhancement activities, particularly through the Forest Service. The 187 million acres of National Forest System lands are managed in accordance with the provisions of The Multiple Use-Sustained 304 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 Yield Act to provide outdoor recreation, range, timber, watershed and wildlife values in combinations that will best meet the needs of the Nation without impairing the productivity of the land. A review of all existing primitive areas for possible designation as wilderness is underway in accordance with the provision of the Wilderness Act and a new program in cooperative law enforcement is proposed for implementation in 1972 and 1973. Other activities include research to develop more attractive and durable plants, shrubs, flowers, and and trees to improve natural beauty. The Corps of Engineers provides facilities for water-based recreation at reservoirs and other public works. As of January 1971, these facilities included 3,284 recreation areas providing 2,666 designated day-use areas, 1,391 designated camping areas with over 50,000 campsites. Donations and bargain sales of Federal property.—Assistance to State and local governments for parks, recreation, and historic preservation also is provided in the form of donations of Federal surplus properties and the sale at $2.50 per acre of public domain lands. In 1973, an estimated 20,000 acres of Federal surplus property valued at $120 million will be donated and 15,000 acres of public domain lands will be sold at $2.50 per acre for these purposes. Table S-5. RECREATION, PARKS, HISTORIC SITES, FISHERIES, AND WILDLIFE ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Outlays Budget authority Total UNDERSTANDING, 1973 estimate 1973 estimate 642 96 787 108 673 105 485 92 651 105 626 107 75 39 12 3 3 100 41 12 4 4 100 65 12 3 4 40 39 12 3 4 70 41 12 4 4 79 65 12 3 4 870 1,056 962 674 887 898 1971 actual Interior Agriculture Housing and Urban Development- _ __ Defense—Civil Labor Tennessee Valley Authority Other agencies- 1972 estimate 1972 estimate 1971 actual DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT 12 Federal agencies conduct a wide variety of activities to understand, describe, and predict environmental conditions. Objectives range from the provision of routine weather forecasts to the scientific understanding of complex ecological systems. Funding for these activities will increase in 1973. [In millions of dollarsl Budget authority Obligations Outlays 1 2 1970 actual 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 719 710 702 914 914 856 1,031 1,050 951 1,101 1,117 1,051 This section excludes activities reported under pollution control and abatement. Funding data are not available for 1969 on a basis comparable to 1970-73. SPECIAL ANALYSES 305 Activities.—Over half of the funding for this category supports environmental observation and measurement to describe and predict weather and ocean conditions and to develop methods of prediction and control of earthquakes. Outlays will increase by 10%, from $484 million in 1972 to $531 million in 1973 for research, development, and operational activities in this category. Funding will also be increased, but less sharply for: • Survey activities to describe the physical environment for the purpose of preparing maps and charts; and • Weather modification. Table S-6. UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING ENVIRONMENT (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Type of activity Observe and predict weather and ocean conditions, disturbances: Research and development __ Operations Locating and describing natural resources: Research and development. __ Operations Physical environmental surveys: Research and development Operations Weather modification Research on environmental impact on man Ecological and other basic environmental research Total 1971 ictu&l 1972 cstiro&tc THE Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 &.ctu&l 1972 cstim&tc 1973 cstim&tc 193 284 210 297 253 313 163 287 194 290 223 308 172 70 172 79 149 81 156 66 152 77 148 81 6 81 17 8 99 19 14 102 24 6 76 17 8 87 18 14 102 22 33 42 51 29 38 47 58 105 114 56 87 106 914 1,031 1,101 856 951 1,051 Additional emphasis will be placed upon research to develop a better understanding of the impact of the environment on man, for which outlays will be increased by 21%, from $38 million in 1972 to $47 million in 1973; and on ecological and other basic environmental research, for which outlays will be increased by 22%, from $87 million in 1972 to $106 million in 1973. Agencies involved.—In this overall category, the Department of Commerce accounts for about 27% of all Federal activities. NOAA carries on a wide range of environmental observation and prediction activities, weather modification experiments, mapping and charting, development of instrumentation, data dissemination services, and related research. Outlays will increase from $264 million in 1972 to $309 million in 1973 for improved weather services; hurricane and severe storm warnings; weather modification research; earthquake and seismic research; environmental satellite system procurement; monitoring, prediction, and assessment of marine resources; and in the sea grant program with universities and with industries. 306 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1973 The Department of Defense conducts activities in environmental observation and measurement to describe and predict weather and ocean conditions and disturbances important to military operations. Research is conducted in oceanographic instrumentation development and operational systems for observing and forecasting the ocean environment. Research and development is also conducted in weather modification by nuclear and nucleation process, cloud physics, numerical modeling of warm fog and cumulous cloud situations, and fog dispersal field experiments. The National Science Foundation supports research activities related to improving the quality of the environment, such as the regional environmental systems and weather modification, programs of research applied to national needs (RANN), the international decade of ocean exploration (IDOE), and other environmentally related research programs. Outlays will increase by 17% from $136 million in 1972 to $159 million in 1973. Increases are due to intensified largescale RANN support of activities including: finding ways to modify weather for man's benefit, measuring trace contaminants in the environment, and identifying and analyzing the problems of regional environmental systems such as the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Basin, and the Gallatin Canyon in the Rockies. In 1973 the IDOE program will support large field programs to make shipboard measurements and to collect water samples in the major oceans. Also IDOE will support comprehensive studies of the living resources of the ocean including the biological aspects of coastal upwelling. The Department of the Interior carries out such activities as geologic investigations, topographic mapping, weather modification, and water resources research. Increases in 1973 will provide principally for further research on the prediction and control of earthquakes, increased mapping of the Outer Continental Shelf, and expansion of Interior's work on application of remote sensing data from aircraft and spacecraft to earth resource measurement and analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration conducts activities concerned with the application of satellite technology to atmospheric sciences and measurement of earth resources. Currently under study is an assessment of the capabilities of remote sensing systems to gather data on air, land, and water pollution with the objective of demonstrating the feasibility of remote sensing systems to detect, identify, measure, and monitor the environmental effects of various pollutants. The Department of Agriculture conducts research on such activities as remote sensing from aircraft of soil properties and uses, water salinity, and plant stress effects. A variety of activities are conducted to develop better materials and methods nccessar}^ to the establishment of replacement vegetation and proper land management. Several types of environmental analysis and monitoring systems have been established in national forest and in State and private forest programs. Extensive climatological monitoring and forecasting is carried out in connection with fire control programs. Emphasis will continue on basic ecological research. SPECIAL ANALYSES 307 Table S-7. UNDERSTANDING, DESCRIBING, AND PREDICTING THE ENVIRONMENT, BY AGENCY (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Agency 1971 actual Commerce1 Defense-Military National Science Foundation. __ Interior National Aeronautics and Space Administration Agriculture Health, Education, and Welfare. Transportation Smithsonian Institution Other agencies Total 1972 estimate Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 248 176 94 116 280 174 166 131 332 165 169 153 237 161 83 115 264 164 136 128 309 167 159 148 171 56 20 14 11 8 158 57 26 19 14 6 145 56 28 21 20 12 157 57 19 10 11 6 141 57 22 19 13 7 135 57 27 21 18 10 914 1,031 1,101 856 951 1,051 1 Funding shown above for Commerce has been adjusted to include activities actually carried out by the Departments of Defense, Interior, and Transportation and National Science Foundation prior to Oct. 3, 1970. The budget authority adjustment is $9 million in 1971, and the related outlay adjustment is $14 million and $7 million in 1972. The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare conducts a variety of activities relating to environmental impact of man, principally research at the Department's National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. The Department of Transportation conducts oceanographic and meterological research and surveys largely through the Coast Guard. The Smithsonian Institution conducts a variety of programs dealing with environmental impact on man and is developing environmental baseline data on the abundance of plants and animals in relation to modification of the environment by man. Biological and physical data are being assembled and analyzed on specific important ecosystems to predict the consequences of environmental change. SEWER AND WATER PROGRAMS Assistance for the construction of sewer and water systems is provided through Federal grants, direct loans and insured loans. The primary objective of Federal sewer and water programs is not pollution control, but rather urban or rural development. To the extent assisted sewer projects provide environmental benefits, they do so as a result of their association with waste treatment and other abatement programs. (In millions of dollars] Budget authority Obligations Outlays 1969 est. 295 420 300 1970 actual 252 409 364 1971 actual 573 546 331 1972 1973 est. est. 765 150 622 610 465 550 Grants to finance water system and sewerline construction are made by five Federal agencies. The Department of Housing and Urban Development provides assistance for basic sewer and water facilities as part of its community development efforts. Approximately 400 grant reservations will be made in both 1972 and 1973. In addition, 308 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 19 73 some public facility loans will be made to finance sewer and water facilities construction in each of these years. Outlays will increase in 1973 by 15%, from $155 million to $177 million. Grant reservations under HUD's water and sewer program will continue at the $200 million level in 1973. Unused balances are sufficient to fund the program in 1973, so no additional appropriation is necessary. Increases in this program have been limited, as Federal funds have been considered more important to expand the waste treatment construction program. The Department of Agriculture provides grants and loans for basic water and waste facilities in rural communities with population not in excess of 5,500 people. The total program level—grants and loans— ncreased from $306 million in 1971 to $342 million in 1972 and 1973. Loans total $300 million in 1973. The number of rural families benefiting from the program increases from 266 thousand in 1970 to 500 thousand in 1973. Outlays (after deducting the repayment of prior year loans) will increase by 24% in 1973, from $231 million to $287 million. The Department of Commerce provides assistance to municipalities as a part of its economic development efforts. Outlays will increase by 9% from $66 million in 1972 to $72 million in 1973. Other agencies providing sewer and water system grants are the Appalachian Regional Commission and the Department of the Interior (for the trust territory). Grants and loans made by the Environmental Protection Agency, Agriculture, Commerce, and Housing and Urban Development for waste treatment plants and interceptor sewers are included in the section on pollution control and abatement. Table S-8. SEWER A N D WATER P R O G R A M S (in millions of dollars) » Outlays Budget authority 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 88 31 116 97 113 55 140 158 118 113 143 177 150 331 466 550 500 165 55 148 117 155 231 177 287 80 18 83 17 84 12 54 11 66 15 72 14 573 765 150 331 466 550 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 243 19 292 19 312 34 375 45 39 30 47 34 573 765 125 140 1971 actual Purpose: Sewer grants. Sewer loans Water system grants Water system loans Total Agencies: Housing and Urban Development Agriculture _ __ Commerce (economic development) Other agencies Total 1971 actual 1 Funds provided by the above agencies which are for construction of waste treatment facilities or interceptor sewers, often counted as part of "sewer and water programs," are included in the section on pollution control and abatement for purposes of this analysis. Funds shown in above table are for water supply systems and collecting sewers. They are not included in tables S-l, 2, or 3. SPECIAL ANALYSES 309 ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES Sections of this analysis include funding for environmental research and development activities for convenience of reference. Funding for R. & D. included in the three sections is summarized in table S-9. Table S-9. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES (in millions of dollars) Budget authority Category 1971 actual Pollution control and abatement. Selected environmental protection and enhancement activities Understanding, describing, and predicting Total 1972 estimate Outlays 1973 estimate 1971 actual 1972 estimate 1973 estimate 422 516 599 366 474 561 20 21 22 19 32 22 479 556 605 427 497 559 921 1,093 1,226 812 1,003 1,142 OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVITIES The meaning of the term "environment" is still subject to widely varying definitions. This special analysis of Federal funding for environmental activities has been limited to selected areas. Among the areas of federally funded activity important to environmental understanding and environmental quality not included in this analysis are: Environmental education; Preventing or correcting environmental degradation resulting from public works or natural resource exploitation; Management of public lands; Population control and population distribution; Federal activities conducted outside the United States (except that scientific activities financed under the special foreign currency program are included); Activities to reduce or avoid the use of pesticides; and Increased cost of new facilities and low polluting fuels (e.g., low sulfur coal) to meet pollution control standards; Highway beautification program. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET