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FISCAL YEAR 2003 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES BUDGET OF THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT THE BUDGET DOCUMENTS Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2003 contains the Budget Message of the President and information on the President’s budget and management priorities, including assessments of agencies’ performance. Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2003 contains analyses that are designed to highlight specified subject areas or provide other significant presentations of budget data that place the budget in perspective. The Analytical Perspectives volume includes economic and accounting analyses; information on Federal receipts and collections; analyses of Federal spending; detailed information on Federal borrowing and debt; the Budget Enforcement Act preview report; current services estimates; and other technical presentations. It also includes information on the budget system and concepts and a list of Federal programs by agency and account, as well as by budget function. Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2003 provides data on budget receipts, outlays, surpluses or deficits, Federal debt, and Federal employment over an extended time period, generally from 1940 or earlier to 2007. To the extent feasible, the data have been adjusted to provide consistency with the 2003 Budget and to provide comparability over time. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2003— Appendix contains detailed information on the various appropriations and funds that constitute the budget and is designed primarily for the use of the Appropriations Committee. The Appendix contains more detailed financial information on individual programs and appropriation accounts than any of the other budget documents. It includes for each agency: the proposed text of appropriations language, budget schedules for each account, new legislative proposals, explanations of the work to be performed and the funds needed, and proposed general provisions applicable to the appropriations of entire agencies or group of agencies. Information is also provided on certain activities whose outlays are not part of the budget totals. Budget System and Concepts, Fiscal Year 2003 contains an explanation of the system and concepts used to formulate the President’s budget proposals. Budget Information for States, Fiscal Year 2003 is an Office of Management and Budget (OMB) publication that provides proposed State-by-State obligations for the major Federal formula grant programs to State and local governments. The allocations are based on the proposals in the President’s Budget. The report is released after the budget. AUTOMATED SOURCES OF BUDGET INFORMATION The information contained in these documents is available in electronic format from the following sources: CD-ROM. The CD-ROM contains all of the budget documents and software to support reading, printing, and searching the documents. The CD-ROM also has many of the tables in the budget in spreadsheet format. Internet. All budget documents, including documents that are released at a future date, will be available for downloading in several formats from the Internet. To access documents through the World Wide Web, use the following address: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget For more information on access to electronic versions of the budget documents (except CD–ROMs), call (202) 512–1530 in the D.C. area or toll-free (888) 293–6498. To purchase a CD–ROM or printed documents call (202) 512-1800. GENERAL NOTES 1. 2. All years referred to are fiscal years, unless otherwise noted. Detail in this document may not add to the totals due to rounding. U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON 2002 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402–0001 ISBN 0–16–051029–5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Budget and Performance Integration 1. Budget and Performance Integration ..................................................................... 3 Economic and Accounting Analyses 2. Economic Assumptions ............................................................................................. 19 3. Stewardship: Toward a Federal Balance Sheet ..................................................... 31 Federal Receipts and Collections 4. Federal Receipts ....................................................................................................... 55 5. User Fees and Other Collections ............................................................................. 83 6. Tax Expenditures ..................................................................................................... 95 Special Analyses and Presentations 7. Federal Investment Spending and Capital Budgeting .......................................... 131 8. Research and Development ...................................................................................... 159 9. Credit and Insurance ............................................................................................... 177 10. Aid to State and Local Governments ...................................................................... 237 11. Federal Employment and Compensation ................................................................ 255 12. Strengthening Federal Statistics ............................................................................. 261 Federal Borrowing and Debt 13. Federal Borrowing and Debt ................................................................................... 267 Budget Enforcement Act Preview Report 14. Preview Report ......................................................................................................... 283 Current Services Estimates 15. Current Services Estimates ..................................................................................... 295 Other Technical Presentations 16. Trust Funds and Federal Funds ............................................................................. 351 17. National Income and Product Accounts .................................................................. 367 18. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals ............................................................. 373 19. Relationship of Budget Authority to Outlays ......................................................... 381 i ii TABLE OF CONTENTS—Continued Page 20. Off-Budget Federal Entities and Non-Budgetary Activities ................................. 383 21. Outlays to the Public, Net and Gross ..................................................................... 387 Information Technology Investments 22. Program Performance Benefits from Major Information Technology Investments ............................................................................................................... 391 Scorecard Standards for Success 23. Scorecard Standards for Success ............................................................................. 411 Ranking Regulatory Investments in Public Health 24. Ranking Regulatory Investments in Public Health ............................................... 419 Budget System and Concepts and Glossary 25. Budget System and Concepts and Glossary ........................................................... 425 Detailed Functional Tables 26. Detailed Functional Tables ...................................................................................... 447 Federal Programs by Agency and Account 27. Federal Programs by Agency and Account ............................................................. 495 List of Charts and Tables ...................................................................................................... 699 BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION 1 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION This Budget marks a significant step on the long road to a results-oriented government. It starts using performance measures to develop policies, to make budget decisions, and to improve everyday program management. The Administration is creating a government that promotes the outcomes that Americans want—such as better education for our children, the freedom to travel safely, and protection of our health— and does this in a cost-effective and efficient way. Achieving better program performance—particularly better performance for each dollar spent—is a high priority of this Administration. Congressional interest, reflected in the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993, set agencies to identifying performance goals, planning to achieve them, and reporting on results. What has been missing is systematic use of these measures to make decisions. In particular, performance measures are not directly linked to the budget—and yet it is the budget that drives policy development, allocates resources, and has undeveloped potential to support better management. • Past and planned results are not shown with budget requests, let alone linked in a cost-andresults relationship. • Program managers responsible for achieving results often do not control the resources they use or have flexibility to use them efficiently. • Performance and cost data are recorded in separate systems and not integrated to provide timely, analytical, feedback to decision-makers and managers. • Americans cannot readily assess program results, and cannot compare performance and cost across programs. Budgeting for Results. Eager to make government work better, the Administration used all of the performance information it could gather in making decisions for this Budget. It also began the transition to change the burden of proof, asking agencies and advocates to supply evidence of program effectiveness instead of assuming effectiveness in the absence of evidence to the contrary. In addition to funding high priority programs, the Budget devotes dollars to programs that are rated effective. The Budget proposes reforms for ineffective programs, reduces their funding or terminates them. Policy changes are proposed to increase program effectiveness and to improve the efficiency of programs and support services. The first section of this chapter, Budgeting for Results, analyzes shifts in resources and changes in policies made on the basis of this intense focus on performance. Foundation for Results. To create a foundation for continual improvement in the effectiveness of government, the President has begun to make results the focus of the budget process. Planning and evaluation will be integral to budgeting. The budget takes the first steps toward showing expected results and the resources requested to achieve each result. To give managers full information about programs and to encourage efficient use of resources, the budget needs a uniform measure of the full annual cost of the resources used that will be charged to each program and activity. In October, the President transmitted to Congress the Managerial Flexibility Act of 2001. Title II of that Act will charge employing agencies for the full annual accruing cost of Federal pensions and retiree health benefits, as reflected in this Budget. The Administration is developing proposals to charge for support services, capital assets, and hazardous substances cleanup where these resources are used. As explained in the second section of this chapter, Foundation for Results, these proposals do not change total budget outlays, budget concepts, or public-private cost comparisons. However, they would provide a better assessment of program costs. Managing for Results. Budget and Performance Integration is one of five interrelated initiatives in The President’s Management Agenda, rolled out in August. The others are Strategic Management of Human Capital, Competitive Sourcing, Expanded Electronic Government, and Improved Financial Performance. The third section of this chapter, Managing for Results, shows that the objective of these five initiatives together is to create a transformation to year-round performance orientation through all levels of the Federal government. 3 4 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES ‘‘We are not alone...’’ Governments here and around the world are devising strategies to assess and manage for results—both outputs (i.e., products and services delivered) and outcomes (i.e., the end result that is being sought, such as clean streets or reduced crime). Here in the United States, a growing number of States, counties and municipalities use ‘‘performance budgeting’’ as a tool for making policy and management decisions. Charlotte, North Carolina, and Dayton, Ohio undertake regular performance measurement. Sunnyvale, California has become internationally recognized for performance budgeting—allocating funding for tasks rather than for personnel, equipment, and supplies, with quantified objectives that are expected to be achieved with the funding. Indianapolis’ budget provides mission statements, allocations by outcome objectives, and comparative performance measures. State governments are also using these tools. Missouri, Texas, Louisiana and Virginia use performance information extensively in the central budget office, while most States use performance information at the agency level. Successful implementation of performance-based budgeting has not been limited to this country. Over the past two decades, every year an increasing number of the 30 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are adopting a performance-based approach to management. New Zealand focused on ‘‘buying outputs’’ ten years ago. Australia and the United Kingdom are the leaders in focusing on outcomes. Canada and the Netherlands are close behind, with France and Japan still in the early phases of transforming to an outcome-focused approach. Australia develops effectiveness and efficiency outputs for its outcomes, and prices each output. The British system is more structured than Australia, employing performance service agreements, aim (or mission) statements, overarching objectives, performance targets, and statements of responsibility for delivery (achieving the targets). In linking resources with outcomes, the British Cabinet Committee’s annual budget review allocates monies three years forward, making decisions on both broad outcome levels and the resources needed to achieve the outcome levels. BUDGETING FOR RESULTS Testifying before Congress last May, the Director of OMB signaled his intention to focus on performance. ‘‘Our main focus of the next months will be working toward full integration of budget and performance information, and using performance data to help make program and budget decisions.’’ He described three specific steps in this direction. • ‘‘First, we will insist that agencies develop a credible linkage between resources and performance. We need to be able to answer the question: ‘What are we getting for what we are spending?’ As we work to establish this linkage, we expect to make some changes to the traditional process of how we review budget requests, and the nature of our passback to the agencies on their requests. • ‘‘Second, we intend to improve our ability to understand the true cost of each program. Full costing of certain program budget accounts will necessitate significant accounting changes, and we are developing a legislative proposal permitting us to assign currently unallocated costs and present these in the budget. • ‘‘Third, you should see a more robust presentation of performance information in the FY 2003 President’s Budget. We also intend to explore how a significant restructuring of the budget document itself might enhance public and Congressional understanding of government performance.’’ ‘‘Work is already underway on these and several related initiatives. These tasks will engage nearly every OMB office, and will comprise a significant part of the workload over the next year.’’ The Director concluded: ‘‘We believe that this work will lead to a big potential payoff in improved effectiveness and efficiency of government.’’ OMB staff and agencies collected evaluations, studies, and performance documentation of all sorts from all sources to assess which programs were effectively improving desired outcomes. Within the Executive Branch, preliminary assessments of these materials were discussed, and agencies were urged to improve program performance and to improve evidence of effectiveness and linkage with program cost. Below are some of the results of this performanceoriented process of policy development and budget allocation. The examples illuminate ways in which policy makers and program managers can help government better serve its citizens. Deliberately, they are chosen to represent ‘‘best practice’’—examples from which other program managers and policy makers can learn. They are presented in five categories: (1) funding effective programs, which have demonstrated benefits greater than cost; (2) shifting resources toward more effective 5 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION programs from less effective ones that have similar purposes; (3) setting program targets and strategies based on understanding performance and cost relationships; (4) adding incentives to enhance program effectiveness; and (5) improving efficiency in programs and support services. Funding Effective Programs Programs in this category are effective. They deliver real benefits for Americans—healthier babies and families, more disadvantaged youths off drugs and in school or job training, and advancing knowledge that can improve health and sustain economic growth. These programs have undergone evaluation, not only documenting their effectiveness, but developing understanding of the reasons for their success so that policy makers and program managers can sustain and build on it. • Agriculture: Numerous government and private studies show that the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC) is one of the nation’s most successful and cost-effective early intervention programs. The program saves lives and improves the health of women, infants and children who are nutritionally at risk. The Budget reflects this demonstrated success by fully funding the program in 2003 to enable all eligible persons who seek services to receive them. The request is sufficient to provide 7.8 million persons with supplemental foods, nutrition education, and preventive health care each month in 2003. A contingency fund is available to serve an expanded number should that be necessary. • Commerce: Although the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) statistics are widely regarded as among the best in the world, they require continual improvement to keep pace with the nation’s rapidly changing economy. Additional funding is proposed for the Bureau of Economic Analysis to improve and speed production of its statistics, on which government and business decision-makers depend. • Health and Human Services: Community Health Centers provide high-quality health care that reduces hospitalizations and emergency room use, and prevents expensive chronic disease and disability. The Budget expands the number of centers by 1,200 to serve an additional 6.1 million patients by 2006. Together with the National Health Service Corps, the Centers increase the number of health care providers in underserved areas. • Health and Human Services: The 1997 National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study found that treatment decreased primary drug use by 48 percent, alcohol and drug-related medical visits by 53 percent, and criminal activity by as much as 80 percent. Welfare dependency, and homelessness also declined. The Budget supports an additional 52,000 drug treatment slots. • Health and Human Services: Funding for the National Institutes of Health, the world’s leading research institution for biomedical and behavioral research, will increase to double its 1998 level. NIH conducts research in its own laboratories, but the vast majority of its funding supports researchers in universities, hospitals, and research institutes around the country through peer-reviewed grants. NIH has supported great advances in the detection and treatment of disease, and its recent work on the human genome, cancer, and many other diseases gives promise of accelerating breakthroughs. • Labor: The Budget will support four more Job Corps centers for residential vocational training for disadvantaged youth than in 2001. At a unit cost of roughly $31,700 per service year, the Job Corps is the Department of Labor’s costliest training program. However, evaluations have demonstrated that its benefits exceed its costs. Job Corps participants get jobs, keep them, and increase earnings over their lifetimes. • National Science Foundation: The NSF, a leader among Federal agencies that fund basic research, will get more funding and programs transferred from other agencies. Of NSF’s grants, 94 percent are competitive, based on merit review. Each year, one-third of NSF’s research and educational programs are evaluated for integrity, efficiency, and quality of results, so that all programs are reviewed in a three-year period. Of the dozen 2001 Nobel prize winners in the sciences, NSF supported eight for the research that won them the award. NSF quickly redirects resources to areas of emerging opportunity, and invests onequarter of its research budget in areas where major breakthroughs are likely. Shifting Resources toward More Effective Programs Comparison of programs for similar purposes can lead to the conclusion that some are more effective than others. Shifting resources toward the better programs is one way to improve results, while the other programs seek ways to focus or reform their efforts. • Commerce: Funding for technology innovation in the Department of Commerce was increased for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, a world leader in high-tech and basic industrial standards including work that led to the 2001 Nobel Prize in physics. The Patent and Trademark Office will also have more resources and set targets for faster patent and trademark processing. The Budget channels resources to higher performing programs by reducing funding for Manufacturing Extension Partnerships and the Advanced Technology Program, and terminating the Technology Opportunities Program. 6 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES • Housing and Urban Development: Housing vouchers are lower in cost per unit, at only 85 percent of the cost of Public Housing, and benefits are higher. More voucher recipients (26 percent) than Public Housing dwellers (8 percent) live in census tracts with less than 10 percent poverty; evaluations are finding better educational, social and behavioral outcomes from the greater opportunities available in these neighborhoods. The Budget increases funding for housing vouchers, expands opportunities for families to choose housing that best fits their needs, and provides more help to see that vouchers are used effectively. • Labor/Training: This Budget begins a wide-ranging reform of Federal investments in training and employment. In 2002, there are at least 48 overlapping training and employment programs scattered around 10 agencies. For several programs that are duplicative or have a history of poor performance, funding is reduced or terminated, reducing the number of programs from 48 to 28. For the many other training programs where performance measures are inadequate or not comparable, a multi-year effort will begin to assess relative effectiveness, shift resources to programs that prove effective, and eliminate ineffective or duplicative programs. • Labor: The backlog of the H1-B visa program will be eliminated by shifting funds from an ineffective grant program, and reforming the visa review process. • Research: Rigorous peer review of proposals for research is an effective tool in selecting projects that are most likely to yield useful results. The Budget more than doubles funding for USDA’s National Research Initiative, and reduces other agricultural research, in an effort to increase peer review. Also to promote merit-based competition, NOAA’s Sea Grant program, and the Interior Department’s toxic substances hydrology program will move to NSF. • Corps of Engineers: For the Corps navigation program, the Budget funds improvements for those waterways with the greatest economic return, and limits funding for those with little commercial traffic. Setting Program Targets and Strategies As programs learn to link performance and cost, they can set targets in their annual performance plan in line with their budget request. This helps to gain support for their request and holds them accountable to achieve the targets. Understanding relationships between cost and performance helps to achieve better performance, to gauge the additional cost of additional performance, and, in some programs, to set appropriate fees. • Commerce: The National Weather Service, an effective program, got an increase in funding and specific targets to increase hurricane warning lead • • • • • • time two hours by 2005, double tornado lead time to 22 minutes by 2015, improve aviation forecasting accuracy by 13 percentage points by 2007, and improve temperature and river forecasts for a pilot region by 2004. Lives will be saved by more timely evacuations; airline and energy industry costs and energy use will be reduced. Health and Human Services: The Food and Drug Administration plans to increase the speed of processing generic drug applications to act on 75 percent within six months of receipt in 2003, up from 50 percent in 2001. FDA will also triple inspections of foods it regulates that are imported into the United States. Housing and Urban Development: HUD has set a target to raise the minority homeownership rate to 50 percent in 2003. Justice: The Budget supports a six-month standard for processing all immigration applications. The Immigration and Naturalization Service will streamline and redesign its entire process, improving efficiency to reach this target. This will be done with a clear focus on thorough and timely screening of all applicants to ensure security. Justice has also set targets for immigration enforcement, prison crowding, and detention cost and quality. Social Security Administration: SSA has targeted an increase in retirement claims processed within 14 days from 84 percent in 2001 to 87 percent by 2003, an increase in customer initiated services available electronically from 21 percent to 40 percent; and an increase in callers access to SSA’s 800 number within five minutes of their first attempt from 92 percent in 2001 to 94 percent in 2003. Transportation: DoT manages programs to improve safety in all modes. They have set targets to reduce the number of serious airport runway incursions from the 52 last year. The Department also hopes to reduce highway fatalities and injuries by increasing seat belt usage to 90 percent by 2005, and reducing alcohol-related fatalities to 11,000 by 2005. USAID: The Budget increases funding for global efforts to combat HIV/AIDS. A rapid scaling up of the program will focus on four countries (Cambodia, Kenya, Uganda, and Zambia) to reduce HIV prevalence in young adults by 30 percent, increase the proportion of infected, pregnant women getting antiretrovirals to prevent mother-to-child transmision to 7 percent, and increase the percentage of orphans receiving community services to 12 percent. Adding Incentives to Enhance Program Effectiveness Even effective programs can further enhance their results by adding incentives for grantees, contractors, and employees. For less effective programs, this could 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION provide a crucial boost to the search for innovation, efficiency, and new strategies. • Agriculture: The Food Stamp quality control system measures how accurately States determine Food Stamp eligibility and calculate benefits. While the system is necessary to ensure program integrity, the current system’s sole focus on payment accuracy does not recognize State efforts to achieve other important program goals, such as promoting access among working households. As part of Food Stamp reauthorization, the President proposes rigorous, but fair, reforms to the quality control system and performance bonuses for payment accuracy and customer service. • Commerce: The Administration will propose that reauthorization of the principal legislation governing marine fisheries conservation enable the use of transferable fishing quotas in appropriate circumstances. This strategy can improve economic incentives for fishing investment and activity, which help both profitability and environmental sustainability. Currently, 20 percent of major marine fish stocks are over fished and another large fraction has unknown population status. • Education: Vocational Rehabilitation State Grants are already rated effective, but States vary widely. As part of the initiative to integrate performance measures and budget decisions, companion Incentive Grants will be allocated to States based on their performance in helping individuals with disabilities obtain competitive employment. • Energy: The Power Marketing Administrations provide an unusual example of improved incentives. PMAs receive their power from hydroelectric dams operated by the Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation. In 2003, three additional PMAs will join Bonneville Power Administration in directly paying the Corps’ operating and maintenance expenses, permitting the PMAs to negotiate directly with the Corps over their maintenance and upgrades. • Health and Human Services: The effective Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program began in 1996. TANF includes a system of high performance bonuses to reward States that have excelled in a variety of areas, including employment outcomes and continued access to benefits. The bonus to reward States with a reduction in out-of-wedlock births is less effective and so is being eliminated, with the funds redirected to develop new approaches to reduce illegitimacy and promote family formation. • Labor: The Federal Employees’ Compensation Act will charge agencies for the full cost of FECA administration as well as workers’ benefits, and will implement a number of reforms to strengthen program integrity, discourage frivolous claims, and promote benefit equity. 7 • State: OMB and the State Department are coordinating an effort to right size the government’s overseas presence. Information is being developed on how many employees from which agencies are stationed overseas and what they are doing. OMB and the State Department are developing a proposal whereby the many agencies that the State Department hosts will be charged for the full cost of the space and services that they use, providing a new incentive to balance cost against the benefit of overseas presence. • Treasury: The United States proposes to negotiate a significant increase in the level of assistance provided to the poorest countries as grants rather than loans. The U.S. will focus this aid on countries with sound policy environments and demonstrated performance, and on operations that raise productivity. The institutions which distribute the aid will be asked to develop reliable performance and output indicators. The U.S. will increase its contributions in 2004 and 2005 conditional on specific actions and the achievement of results. Improving Efficiency in Programs and Support Services If the Federal role is appropriate and the program is effective or undergoing reform, then attention turns to the most efficient way to produce outputs. This is more difficult than in the private sector, where market price summarizes the value of the timeliness, accuracy, quality, and other characteristics of outputs. But attention to efficiency can result in the public getting more government services at the same or less cost. • Agriculture: The Farm Service Agency and the Natural Resources Conservation Agency will work to reduce the reporting burden of the farmers they serve by 10 percent, and to increase the technical assistance to priority locations and the eligibility determinations they provide, while reducing cost. • Agriculture: Rural Development has had considerable success centralizing loan servicing through a single, national office and information system. The Budget proposes that the Farm Service Agency emulate that success by establishing a service center to centralize farm loan servicing. • Defense and Veterans Affairs: To increase the cost-effectiveness of providing medical care, the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs will begin to coordinate with each other. They will share information to speed delivery of health services and ensure the safety of veterans who get care from both DoD and VA. They will also share resources instead of constructing new facilities, purchase supplies together, and coordinate patient transportation. • Education: The Department of Education will reform the process of collecting Federal elementary and secondary education information from States in order to reduce administrative burden, maxi- 8 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES mize the usefulness of data, and improve accountability for results. This reform will permit staff to focus on results, thereby releasing the Department from a culture of compliance and shifting to a culture of accountability. • Education: The Department of Education’s costs for administering student financial assistance programs will be consolidated in a single discretionary account. Requests will be tied to unit cost targets for major tasks, such as applications processing, loan origination, and loan servicing, and to annual estimates of participation in various programs. These changes will enable the Department to measure its progress in meeting productivity and cost-efficiency goals. • Health and Human Services: HHS is a manylayered bureaucracy with 40 Human Resources offices competing for recruits, more than 50 Public Affairs offices, and more than 20 Legislative Affairs offices. These will be consolidated into four Human Resources offices and one each for Public Affairs and Legislative Affairs. Three building maintenance and construction offices will be consolidated into one this year, and two more will be folded in next year, in order to concentrate expertise and set priorities for capital projects across the Department. • Justice: To use detention space efficiently, the Department of Justice will create a National Clearinghouse for Detention Space; State, local, and private providers will electronically post vacancies, rates, services, and other data. Justice will also explore purchasing private prisons. • Labor: DoL is providing focused compliance assistance to help employers prevent labor law violations or correct them voluntarily. Efforts include making the rules more understandable, posting them on the Web, providing on-site consultations, and developing interactive electronic tools to help employers and others understand occupational safety and health regulations. These examples show that there are Federal programs with documented effectiveness. These programs attract support in the President’s Budget. They show that making decisions based even on today’s rough performance measures can improve results—by allocating resources to more effective programs, stimulating program reforms, providing constructive incentives, and cultivating good program management. The integration of performance measures in the budget process encourages their use in making decisions that improve results. FOUNDATION FOR RESULTS Measurement leads to improvement, but it is hard to find good measures in the Federal government. For instance, currently many program managers cannot get a consistent, full measure of the costs of their programs from agency budget systems. Frequently they do not actively participate in developing performance measures for the performance plans required under the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA). The goal of the Integration Initiative is to give program managers better information on costs, involve them in a process of setting goals that are commensurate with the resources requested, and then hold them accountable for results. In the same vein, while some agencies have made good progress in performance reporting under GPRA, a lot more needs to be done. Even information about the relationship of existing performance measures to the budget costs for specific programs is frequently not available for decision-makers and the public. This Administration has devoted substantial time and effort over the past year to integrating goals and costs, including making major changes in the budget volume. Notwithstanding this effort, it continues to be difficult to systematically assess either the effectiveness of programs, or their relative efficiency when compared to like activities in other areas of government and the private sector. This lack of full, consistent information is the result of long standing barriers in agency organizations and reporting systems, some of which are built into law. To just begin to correct these deficiencies, the following steps are needed: • The government’s program managers must participate in the development of broad objectives and annual performance goals, and link those objectives and goals to an annual budget request. • Agency reporting systems must be able to report on these goals, objectives, and costs in an integrated information system that can be aggregated into the President’s Budget request and the agency budget justification that is transmitted to the Congress. Agency reporting systems must also provide acceptable after-the-fact evaluation and financial information on how well goals and costs have been achieved. Making results the focus of the budget requires three significant changes. First, planning and evaluation— both oriented toward outcomes—must be thoroughly integrated into the budget process and documents. Second, the alignment of budget accounts—and especially their subdivision into ‘‘program activities’’—should be reviewed so that the budget can readily relate resources used to the results produced, and so that good management is supported. This can be done separately for each agency. Third, accounts and activities should be charged consistently for the full annual cost of the resources used. This requires legislation. In October, the Administration transmitted legislation to the Congress to charge the employer’s share of the full accruing cost of retirement benefits to Federal employers. A companion bill to complete full charg- 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION ing for other resources used to produce outputs is being developed for transmittal following this Budget. Together, these changes are important steps toward a more results-oriented government. The broad objectives of the Integration Initiative are clear enough, but, as with performance measurement in general, translating these objectives into specific goals and making the changes necessary to meet the goals is much harder and takes a long time. Many program managers, budget officers, performance measurement staff, and other government officials are struggling with this translation. Integrating the Process The first step in infusing planning and evaluation into budgeting is to produce greater collaboration. Some agencies report that these functions are already carried out by ‘‘the same’’ staff, and others are considering mergers. So far, the results of collaboration are usually more evident at the bureau than at the departmental level. Planning is more likely to precede budgeting at bureaus, and a crosswalk between performance goals and budget cost is often provided. The Environmental Protection Agency is an example of an agency that has made substantial progress. It has an integrated staff to create the budget, set output targets, and evaluate implementation. Another useful practice is followed by Health and Human Services, which holds a department-level joint plan and budget review for each of its operating divisions to prepare for the Secretary’s budget submission to OMB. The second step is to make a serious commitment to outcomes—and to evaluation of relevant programs to understand how outcomes can be improved. A results-oriented budget starts from the agency’s strategic plan and its priorities. What outcomes will the agency espouse? How do its programs and activities help to achieve each outcome? Targeting an outcome, which the agency may influence but cannot control, seems risky. Yet without a serious commitment to outcomes, the agency’s programs may be efficient—but only accidentally will they be effective. Moreover, agencies without 9 this commitment are likely to have so many ‘‘performance measures’’ that few capture attention, get agency priority, or aggregate into results that the public cares about. Below are two examples of outcomes related to agency outputs. Note in the first example how an outcome—highway safety—may be produced by the outputs of several different agency programs and activities taken together. • Transportation. To reduce highway fatality and injury rates, DOT will test automobiles to ensure compliance with safety standards; promulgate new or revised safety standards in several areas; invest in infrastructure improvements to reduce conditions or factors most associated with highway fatalities, such as single vehicle run-off-the-road crashes (which cause 38 percent of all deaths); and increase research into how the growing levels of driver distractions may increase accident rates. • Veterans Affairs. To improve the overall health of veterans through high-quality, safe, and reliable health services (an outcome), VA has sharply increased its score on the Care Index (a measure of the degree to which VA follows nationally recognized guidelines for the treatment and care of patients with one or more of five major ailments) and on the Prevention Index (a measure of the degree to which VA follows nationally recognized prevention and early detection recommendations for eight diseases or health-risk factors). Finally, a single streamlined, integrated plan-andbudget document should eventually be produced. So far, agencies have included budget amounts in their annual performance plan, first at an aggregate level and then in more detail. They have also included performance measures in their budget justifications, sometimes linked with program resources. Plans are relatively streamlined; budgets rarely are—not even in the sense of a streamlined overview with supplementary volumes. The Department of Labor and some other agencies are working toward a single integrated document. But few have learned a lesson from great chefs: ‘‘reductions’’ take more time, but they have more flavor! 10 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Chart 1-1. Linking Resources with Results Outputs Inputs Financing sources Outcomes Net impacts Program managers with authority over budgetary resources and staff offices are charged for the full annual cost of resources used and are responsible for efficient production of related outputs. Evaluation determines which outputs with which characteristics do most to improve the desired outcomes. Several programs may influence a single outcome. Improving Alignment Account and activity alignment should eventually fit the nature of each agency and bureau. Alignment needs to be considered with care. Consideration might begin with the question: What general principles for alignment contribute to creation of a results-focused budget? Attention naturally turns to programs for the public that carry out the agency’s mission. The agency’s Strategic Plan, which is based on its authorizing legislation and involves wide consultation, is a potential starting point for identifying strategic goals and the outcomes that the agency seeks to improve. If the agency’s perspective or environment have changed enough to affect its strategic goals (e.g., the Department of Justice after September 11th), they need to be brought up to date. The agency’s main goals could be listed, along with the outcomes that measure success in achieving each. This could provide an organizing framework for the integrated plan and budget document. The traditional—indeed Constitutional—purpose of the budget accounts is to control budgetary resources. That emphasis will continue, and no changes in budget concepts or total budget outlays are proposed as part of the Budget and Performance Integration Initiative. But the account structure needs review to ensure that it supports, or at least does not hinder, good management. From that perspective, all of the resources used by a bureau or other organization should be financed from one or more budget accounts associated with it. At an aggregate level, resources would be managed by those accountable for achieving results. Bureaus are clearly visible in the budget account structure of almost all Departments. Many accounts finance an entire bureau or office. Where there are more accounts, there is often a good managerial reason: a major program may have an account of its own; large mandatory transfers or grants may be in a separate account from administration and other complementary discretionary activities; if the bureau conducts programs and activities for very different major purposes, separate accounts may support better decisions. But multiple small accounts for similar purposes are usually unnecessary. And multiple accounts for different inputs or different activities leading to the same output or outcome may inhibit a manager striving for the best results. Some account consolidation might be useful. The ‘‘program activity’’ sections that subdivide budget accounts offer an opportunity to improve linkage between resources and results. In accounts that finance provision of goods, services, grants, transfers, credit, insurance, or regulation for the public, program activities could align the resources used with the results achieved—usually an output for the public, such as loans made—with related performance measures that influence desired outcomes, such as the percent of loans made to first-time homeowners and the percent that 11 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION remain in payment status. This is sometimes current practice. But in other cases, these subdivisions may show inputs, some-but-not-all of the funding for an output, or an intermediate process that contributes to sev- eral outputs. Such practices make it difficult to show the full annual cost of resources used to achieve specific results. They also splinter responsibility for achieving results that Americans value. Immigration and Naturalization Service Program and Account Restructuring In 2003, the Administration is proposing a realignment of the Immigration and Naturalization Service’s (INS’s) account structure. In the past, INS had three accounts: salaries and expenses, construction, and immigration support. A person looking at the INS accounts could not determine how much money was spent on immigration enforcement or immigration services. Even looking at various fee accounts, one could not see how much of the money collected from application fees went to processing the application versus enforcing immigration law. The new structure provides the full picture of how much money collected from application fees went to processing the application versus enforcing immigration law. The new structure provides the full picture of how much money is spent to fulfill the agency’s dual missions of enforcement and services. This proposal realigns the INS budget and account structure with the Department of Justice’s and INS’s Strategic Plan objectives, making it easier to track resources with results. It not only changes the account structure but also collapses the current program structure from 13 different programs to six programs that directly link to performance objectives. It organizes similar enforcement actions together and clearly separates immigration services and support operations. The support and administration account is temporary, capturing the overhead and support costs that could not be easily spread in the first year. INS plans to spread these costs in the 2004 budget. This will complete the realignment of funding to allow for linking funding with performance goals—so the public knows what it is getting for its money. Chart 1-2. INS Program & Account Structure Linked to Performance Objectives Current Program Structure New Program Structure New Account Structure Performance Objectives Border Patrol Inspections Border Enforcement International Affairs Enforcement Intelligence Interior Enforcement Investigations Detention & Removals Immigration Services International Affairs Benefits Data and Communications Training Management and Administration Immigration Services Account OBJECTIVE: Deliver services to the public in a professional and courteous manner and ensure that correct immigration benefit decisions are made in a timely and consistent fashion. Support and Administration OBJECTIVE: Strengthen human resource recruitment and retention efforts and provide for a workforce that is skilled, diverse, and committed to excellence. Information Resource Management Construction and Engineering Legal Proceedings OBJECTIVE: Facilitate lawful travel and commerce across the borders of the U.S. Detention & Removals Adjudications and Naturalization Information and Records Management Immigration Enforcement Account OBJECTIVE: Secure the ports of entry, land border, and coasts of the U.S. against unlawful entry. Infrastructure and Administrative Support 12 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Thoughtful long-term reforms are needed in budgetary structure to manage for results. The Federal Aviation Administration is improving its budget accounts for capital and research by aligning funds under performance outcome goals. The agency is also streamlining these accounts to increase managerial flexibility to achieve performance outcomes. A more extensive example of an agency working on this problem is the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The presentation on the previous page shows their prior account structure, how they transformed it, and how it lines up with INS’s performance objectives. Charging Full Annual Budgetary Cost To show the full annual budgetary cost consistently across all programs requires more than improving account and activity alignment. It also requires providing budget authority to cover the resources used for each program and oversight account, and charging all accounts for the full annual cost of using resources. Currently this is not systematically done. • Civilian retiree health benefits have all been paid centrally for the whole government; military health benefits have been paid centrally by DoD and the small uniformed services. Costs are not shown when the benefits are earned; only when they are paid. • Pensions for new civilian employees and for military employees were reformed in the mid-1980s, with employers paying their share of the accruing cost. But costs for employees hired earlier under the Civil Service Retirement System are only partly charged, and several small systems are payas-you-go, which creates an uneven effect across programs. • Support goods and services are often paid centrally by agencies or provided to programs at less than full cost. There are indications that programs use different amounts and kinds of support in these circumstances than when they pay full cost. In other instances, agencies may allocate cost to the programs, leaving managers feeling burdened. • Capital costs are most problematic. From the program manager’s perspective, they may be zero if financed centrally, some share of acquisition cost if that is allocated, the rental value if office space is rented from GSA, or a substantial bite out of their budget for a rare capital acquisition. In sum, program costs are often lower than annual operating costs—by widely varying amounts—and sometimes higher. The Budget and Performance Integration Initiative will improve on this and begin to create more complete and uniform measures of annual budgetary cost across the government. That will begin to permit the fair comparison of the cost of one program with another. Two complementary legislative proposals—one already transmitted to the Congress and the other under development—would apply ‘‘best practice’’ consistently to show a more complete measure of budgetary cost where and when resources are used. • To show resources where they are used, the second proposal would include a straightforward but powerful requirement: the full annual budgetary cost of resources used by programs shall be charged to the budget account or accounts that fund the program. More than one program might be funded by a single account so long as the amounts used are separately distinguished. These provisions would be deliberately general, leaving how they would be applied to case-by-case decisions on alignment. • To show support services where they are used, the second proposal would create intra-governmental support revolving funds (ISRFs) from working capital, franchise, and other support revolving funds. Any support goods and services provided to more than one bureau would move into an existing fund or a newly created one. Like all other accounts, ISRFs would be charged for the resources they use and would charge programs and other customers enough to operate on a selfsustaining basis. Three other provisions of legislation would use pairs of budget accounts to change when costs are shown in the program accounts without changing the timing for the budget totals. These cover all major cases where resources are used long before or long after they are paid for. • Pensions and retiree health benefits are earned as Federal employees work; they are paid much later, after the employees retire. The legislation already transmitted would require program and other employer accounts to pay the employer share of the accruing cost of these benefits to retiree benefit accounts, where they are offsetting collections. These accounts would pay the benefits when they come due. • Similarly, programs that generate hazardous substances would be required to pay the accruing cost to clean up contaminated assets at the end of their useful life. These payments would go to funds responsible for the cleanup. • In contrast, capital assets are bought before they are used. In this case, an agency Capital Acquisition Fund (CAF) would be created. Following good budget practice, the CAF would request budget authority (BA) up front to acquire assets that are included in the budget, and outlays would be recorded when payment was made. However, this BA would be in the form of borrowing from Treasury authority. The CAF would then borrow for the period of the asset’s useful life; collect annual capital user charges in proportion to asset use, and make the mortgage payments to Treasury. The General Accounting Office supported these concepts for budgeting in the United States in a recent report, Accrual Budgeting: Experiences of Other Nations and Implications for the United States. (February 2000). 13 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION Full Funding for Federal Retiree Costs. To make quick progress on these practices, the Administration split the required legislation into two parts. In October, the first bill—‘‘Budgeting and Managing for Results: Full Funding of Retiree Costs Act of 2001’’—was transmitted to Congress as Title II of the Managerial Flexibility Act of 2001. The proposal charges to salary and expense accounts in all Federal agencies—most of which are funded by discretionary appropriations—the employer’s share of the full annual accruing cost of retirement benefits above and beyond the amounts that are charged now. The bill requires charges for: • the full accruing cost of the Civil Service Retirement System and the parallel Foreign Service and CIA pensions, • retired pay for the small uniformed services (Coast Guard, Public Health Service, and NOAA), • retiree health benefits for civilian employees in the Federal Employee Health Benefit Program, and • retiree health benefits for the seven uniformed services. For the latter, accrual of health benefits for those 65 and over will start in 2003 under existing law, and accrual of benefits for younger retirees is proposed to start in 2004. Existing liabilities are amortized by mandatory payments from the general fund, and benefit payments are mandatory. This component of cost was proposed first because it could be implemented largely by changing the amounts paid from and to existing accounts. These costs are displayed by account in the 2003 Budget for 2003 and beyond, with comparable estimates published for 2001 and 2002. The bill does not change total budget outlays or the surplus/deficit; it shifts costs from central mandatory accounts to increase the affected discretionary accounts on the civilian side by $9.2 billion. The additional discretionary amounts were treated as an adjustment in this Budget. Thus, the Budget requests sufficient funding by account for this conceptual change, except for programs that are funded by user fees. Under OMB Circular A–25, the costs of the latter programs are expected to be covered by their fees. The adjustment for accounts producing support goods and services is made in their customers’ budget accounts. This legislation would fully fund the employer share of all Federal pensions, retired pay, and retiree health benefits by agency payments to the retiree benefit funds each year as they are earned by employees. It would amortize past unfunded liabilities on a regular schedule by payments from Treasury to the retiree benefit funds. The legislative language requires the appropriate amounts to be paid out of all salary and expense appropriations, just as they are now for the Federal Employee Retirement System (FERS) and the Military Retirement System (MRS). These charging practices would go a long way to close the gap between current budgetary cost and uniform full operating cost so that cost and results can be compared with each other and across programs. The bill would not change the government cost that would be compared with private offers in a public private competition. These costs are already included in the OMB Circular A–76 comparison. But it moves toward the possibility of fair competition without the current burdensome process. Full Budgetary Cost and Performance Integration. As discussed above, the Administration is developing a second proposal to charge uniformly for other resources where and when they are used. It is intended for transmission to Congress after this Budget. Implementation would start in the fiscal year 2004 Budget, but with additional implementation in future years. This proposal covers the 24 CFO Act agencies, except that the Director of OMB may extend the support goods and services provisions to other agencies. While still under review, this proposal’s key goal is to facilitate the full annual budgetary cost of resources used by programs being charged to the budget account or accounts that fund the program. More than one program may be funded by a single account so long as the amounts used are separately distinguished. How this is worked out in each agency—and how closely it hews to the spirit of aligning costs with outputs and outcomes—will determine where the costs defined in the other provisions will be charged. To retain the current degree of flexibility to deal with changing circumstances, the proposal will include limited transfer authority. None of the budgetary changes in this proposal will affect the ‘‘bottom line’’ of the budget as a whole, or the basic budgetary concepts of budget authority, obligations, and outlays. They do increase the amount of discretionary budget authority that must be appropriated to capture the full cost of programs. The effect of this will be that programs that produce outputs for the public will recognize discretionary spending in the budget at the time when they incur costs. Therefore, for each program, the budget account would show the total budgetary resources used to pay annual operating cost. Comparison of resources and results will be systematic when allocating resources; and managers will have timely feedback and better resource control with which to achieve better results. MANAGING FOR RESULTS What you measure is what you get. The greatest initial impact from integrating performance and budgeting is that we will begin to get better results for each budget dollar. In the slightly longer run, managing for results will continually improve program outcomes. The President’s Management Agenda launched this ef- 14 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES fort last August. The Agenda includes five governmentwide initiatives that are intended to work together as a mutually reinforcing set of reforms. In addition to Budget and Performance Integration, they are Strategic Management of Human Capital; Competitive Sourcing; Expanding Electronic Government; and Improving Financial Performance. The Strategic Management of Human Capital Initiative will align human resources with programs and their outputs, so that real as well as budgetary resources will be focused on producing results. The Competitive Sourcing Initiative will give program managers more choice in the character and cost of the inputs they buy with the budgetary resources they control. The Expanding Electronic Government Initiative will help programs to coordinate and deliver services. And the Improved Financial Performance Initiative will integrate financial and performance information that, together with Budget and Performance Integration, will provide timely, analytical feedback to managers. These Initiatives place more authority and accountability for outputs at the operating level, use working groups and intermediate levels of management to coordinate pro- grams to influence outcomes effectively, and focus top management on policy development and oversight. The basic idea is to align authority, staff, and all resources used with specific bureaus and programs, to provide flexibility in the use of those resources, and to hold managers and staff accountable—with rewards when successful—for achieving agreed-upon results. Following the spirit of accountability, this Budget is presented by Agency rather than by cross-cutting functions. These five government-wide Presidential initiatives were selected because in each area the Federal Government is operating below potential, yet there is also a clear path to improvement with a major pay-off at the end. As a goal post, each of the initiatives included standards setting forth the characteristics that would define the success to be achieved over the next three years. OMB is working with agencies to customize the progress that each agency should make this year to achieve full success within three years. Agencies will earn ‘‘green lights’’ on progress for each quarter in which they meet the milestones along their agreed pathway to success. Chart 1-3. Moving Toward ResultsOriented Government Results orientation will be infused into every aspect of government: Budgeting -- results, targets, and structure Managing -- in the spotlight Staffing -- align and empower staff, reward results Acquisition -- competitive, performance-based IT -- integrated, timely, delivering service Reporting -- accurate, timely, and integrated 15 1. BUDGET AND PERFORMANCE INTEGRATION Strategic Management of Human Capital A growing portion of the Federal workforce will become eligible to retire over the next decade. Good human resource management is needed to ensure that people with the necessary skills are hired, trained, and retained to provide public services. Human resources, as well as budgetary resources, need to be aligned with programs and activities that produce results. Aligned managers should be delegated the authority they need to get the job done, including more flexibility to hire and manage personnel, rather than hampered by excessive layers of review. The Integration and the Human Capital initiatives both link rewards to individual and group success in reaching performance goals. Below are examples of good practice. • Treasury implemented knowledge management systems to help preserve and share the experience and institutional memory of retiring employees. • The Veterans Affairs Healthcare Network for Upstate New York involves its employees in developing work unit ‘‘stretch’’ goals at least 10 percent higher than the consensus expectation for the amount of work that will be accomplished. Employees have a stake in their success through a ‘‘goal sharing’’ incentive program, where modest awards are based on reaching goals at the regional and unit level. Since the program began, the program has reduced cost per patient and improved customer service and satisfaction. • The General Services Administration’s Public Buildings Service allocates regional office budgets based on nine performance measures. Targets are set for each measure, and a portion of the Performance Excellence Pool goes to regions for each goal they exceed. Organizational and individual performance has improved across the measures, with lower costs and better efficiency, effectiveness, and customer satisfaction. Competitive Sourcing The President’s Management Agenda includes an initiative to acquire an increasing proportion of commercial goods and services through competition among and between public and private sources. The process, as defined in OMB Circular No. A–76, relies on a performance-oriented statement of work and a comparison of the full costs to the taxpayer for each source. Last March, OMB set a target for agencies to compete or convert to contract not less than 5 percent of their FAIR Act inventories of commercial work performed by Federal employees in 2002. Agencies were asked to compete an additional 10 percent of their FAIR Act inventory in 2003. The agencies will retain all of the savings achieved through Competitive Sourcing. Innovation and efficiency are stimulated when agencies compete the acquisition of support goods and services from providers in their own agency, other agencies, or the private sector. Savings are generated which can be put to use in support of the agency’s mission. The Department of Defense has competed 218 competitions since 1955, of which 57 percent were retained in-house, and 43 percent converted to contract. When retained in-house, the average savings were 34 percent. However, OMB Circular A–76 is a cumbersome and complicated process. It requires developing a performance-based contract, conducting a management study to design a most-efficient-organization for the in-house bidders, and making an elaborate cost comparison. The process needs to be reformed to allow program managers to be free to acquire the support goods and services that best meet their needs. Expanding Electronic Government E-government can improve the coordination, efficiency, and effectiveness of delivering information and services to the public. These projects may bring together programs producing different outputs toward common outcomes, and help them to deliver services from the customer’s perspective. In order to make the government truly ‘‘citizen-centered,’’ agencies will have to work together around the needs of citizens and businesses—not agency boundaries. Citizen-centered government will use the Internet to give citizens the ability to go online and interact with their government. Below are some interesting examples. • The Department of Commerce is using the Internet to serve businesses interested in international trade and minority contracting opportunities. Census uses e-government for its economic surveys of firms, and will use it more for the 2010 census of population. • The Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration accepts health and safety complaints over the Internet. In addition, individuals can use the Internet to discover lost pensions, and a pilot project allows people to calculate their approximate retirement benefits online. • The National Science Foundation was the first agency to perform all of its critical interactions with its proposal applicants through the web. Over 99 percent of the proposals the agency receives are submitted electronically. • The Social Security Administration is rapidly expanding online customer service options. These include making retirement claims, receiving Medicare replacement cards, checking account status on-line, getting access to change one’s address and telephone number, and making direct deposits. Improving Financial Management Financial management is a natural complement to budgeting. Better account and activity alignment with performance is needed; resources should be charged where they are used. This congruence would facilitate accounting, and the emphasis on performance would provide incentives for, as well as facilitate, cost accounting. Performance, budgeting, and accounting information potentially could be entered using standard analytical software at the program and activity level, where 16 it would be familiar and used as timely feedback, making it likely to be accurate. All entries should be fully coded to the Standard General Ledger. The modules as a whole could then be uploaded and consolidated. • Transportation is implementing a new Department-wide financial management system that is geared towards capturing transactions at the source, automating the matching of expenditures to the obligating document, and obtaining electronic approvals. By capturing transactions at the source, this process reduces the likelihood of erroneous payments and posting the charges to the wrong contract. All organizations in DOT are working to convert to the new system by the end of calendar year 2002. • The Treasury Franchise Fund consists of eleven ‘‘business activities,’’ each with a separate account established to facilitate financial reporting. Although the audited financial statements of the Fund are presented on a consolidated basis, its financial system generates individual financial statements for each business activity. Revenue and expense data are recorded and reported by business line. Direct and indirect costs are identified by each business activity and reported internally on financial reports. • The Social Security Administration included a comprehensive footnote disclosure in its Accountability Report that described the method they use to classify operating expenses by strategic goal. SSA aligns its strategic goals with its request for new budget authority as part of its annual budget ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES request. They applied the same method to allocate primary administrative expenses to each strategic goal and reconciled that to the operating costs reported on the Statement of Net Cost. • The Department of Education is using activitybased costing in its student financial assistance (SFA) programs to improve efficiency. SFA has worked with managers to define program and business activities, assign cost, and map the activities. A user-friendly reporting tool provides managers with on-line multidimensional views of the results. Quarterly management reports are provided to managers showing the cost of their business processes and providing insight into the drivers of those costs. Managers are being assigned cost reduction targets, which this system and benchmarking with private industry and other agencies will help them to meet. • The Environmental Protection Agency provides integrated financial and programmatic data to the agency’s managers to support decision-making based on costs. For example, EPA is tracking the cost for all major IT projects by phase. Agency cost accounting for the Superfund program has resulted in over $2.8 billion in cost recoveries. And the agency’s accounting structure has been redesigned to provide the costs of achieving the goals, objectives, and sub-objectives embodied in their Strategic Plan and budget. All five of the President’s Initiatives thus contribute to the performance orientation and effectiveness of the Federal Government. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYSES 17 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Introduction Beginning in mid-2000, economic growth decelerated sharply. Over the following half-year manufacturing production declined, the Nation’s payrolls grew very little, and the unemployment rate rose. In response to the slowing economy, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 2-3⁄4 percentage points during the first half of 2001, the largest reduction in such a short period since 1984. Fiscal policy also shifted to stimulate demand. In June, the President signed the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, which reduced personal income taxes by $44 billion during the second half of the year, the first installment in a multi-year permanent reduction in income tax liabilities. Under normal circumstances, the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus either in place or enacted by mid2001 would have been more than sufficient to reinvigorate the stalled economy. In fact, last spring most forecasters, including the Administration, were predicting that the sluggish growth that began in 2000 would end by late 2001 and the economy would again be growing at a sustainable pace that would keep the unemployment rate from rising further. However, the normal channels of transmission linking economic policy and economic performance never had a chance to operate. The terrorist attacks of September 11th temporarily shattered consumer and business confidence. Faced with a highly uncertain and much more risky economic environment, consumers, businesses and investors for a brief time became much less willing to undertake the purchases and investments which are needed to achieve sustainable growth. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the business cycle expansion that began in March 1991 ended in March 2001, six months before the terrorist attacks. The expansion lasted exactly ten years, making it the longest period of continuous economic growth in the Nation’s history. In the absence of the terrorist attacks, the longest-running expansion might have continued well into its second decade. As the NBER stated, ‘‘Before the attacks, it is possible that the decline in the economy would have been too mild to qualify as a recession. The attacks clearly deepened the contraction and may have been an important factor in turning the episode into a recession.’’ 1 At the start of 2001, hardly any forecaster expected that the economy would slip into recession within a few months. None did, or could, anticipate the shock to the economy from the terrorist attacks later in the year. Consequently, forecasts of real GDP growth made 1 National Bureau of Economic Research, ‘‘The NBER’s Business-Cycle Dating Procedure’’, December 13, 2001, page 7. in January 2001 turned out to be well above the actual outcome. The forecasts made in January 2001 by the Administration, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of prominent private sector forecasts, projected real GDP growth in 2001 would be close to 2.5 percent. Although the official estimate of fourth quarter growth is not yet available, the consensus forecast anticipates that growth in 2001 will be close to 1 percent. The error was especially large for business capital spending. Most forecasters expected an increase in 2001; instead it fell sharply. The forecasts made in January 2001 by the Administration, the CBO and the Blue Chip consensus for GDP growth in 2002 were all close to 3.5 percent. That is about 2-1⁄2 percentage points above the current projections for 2002, which are 0.7 percent in the economic assumptions used in this Budget; 0.8 percent in the January 2002 CBO projections; and 1.0 percent in the January 2002 Blue Chip consensus. The large over-estimate of real growth during 2001–2002 contributed to a large over-estimate of receipts in FY 2002. Receipts are now expected to be $177 billion lower than anticipated in the 2002 Budget published in April 2001 due to the weaker economy and related factors, and outlays are expected to be $20 billion higher. Thus, the budget balance for 2002 has been reduced $197 billion due to the impacts from the unexpected weak economy. (For further details, see the section below ‘‘Sources of Change in the Budget Since Last Year.’’) Economic-driven misses in budget projections are not unusual, however. The budget balances for 1998 through 2000 were boosted by $135 billion to $200 billion each year due to economic and technical factors, relative to the forecast made at the start of each budget year. (For further discussion of the historical record of misses in budget projections and their sources, see Chapter 18, ‘‘Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals for 2001.’’) Despite the setback caused by the terrorist attacks, the economy appears to be once again poised to resume sustainable growth in 2002. The Federal Reserve cut the Federal funds rate four times after September 11th, lowering it to just 1-3⁄4 percentage point in early December, the lowest it has been in 40 years. In total during 2001, the Federal Reserve reduced the funds rate by 4-3⁄4 percentage points, which helped support consumer durables spending and residential investment in 2001 and which will stimulate business investment during the recovery this year. Inflation remains low, which will allow the Federal Reserve to ease further if that appears necessary. Substantially lower energy prices will provide a boost to economic activity. Crude oil prices have fallen nearly 19 20 50 percent since late 2000, with an especially sharp drop after mid-2001. Lower prices for gasoline, heating oil and natural gas act like a tax cut for energy-consuming households and businesses, although this is partly offset by lower incomes for domestic energy producers. The net impact is stimulative because the United States imports a substantial portion of the energy it consumes. Fiscal policy is also expected to boost growth. The bipartisan economic security package proposes lower personal taxes and increases incentives for business investment. These measures, along with the budget’s ‘‘automatic stabilizers’’ such as lower income taxes and increased unemployment insurance payments, will provide additional purchasing power to households and businesses this year. During each quarter of 2001, businesses cut back on capital spending in response to a ‘‘capital overhang’’ that developed in 2000 following the Y2K surge in spending, the unanticipated slowing of demand here and abroad, and the decline in corporate cash flow. When the economy begins growing again, businesses will have the willingness and ability to invest more in new plant and equipment. Also, businesses liquidated inventories during 2001 to such an extent that they will soon have to step up orders to replenish stocks. For these reasons, the usual dynamics of the business cycle are likely soon to swing from restraining growth to boosting growth. Increased orders for capital equipment and stockbuilding will require increased production, which will require more workers on payrolls, which will generate more incomes, restore confidence, stimulate consumer spending, and, in turn, lead to further increases in business investment. This ‘‘virtuous circle’’ has been the regular sequence of events in past business cycles. Financial markets are already anticipating faster economic growth this year. The stock market is often a reliable leading signal of future economic activity, and it has risen sharply from its low point on September 21st. By mid-January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained almost 20 percent and the technologyladen NASDAQ 40 percent. In every post-World War II recession, the economy has emerged from recession to expansion a few months after the start of a sustained stock market rally. Bond markets are sending a similar signal. The spread between short and long-term interest rates widened significantly in the final months of 2001, an indication that bond market investors also anticipate faster growth shortly. Despite the encouraging signals from financial and nonfinancial markets, a strong and sustained expansion is far from assured. The recovery of business investment may be delayed; consumers may yet curtail discretionary spending in the face of uncertain prospects for employment and income; and U.S. exports may be weaker than anticipated as a result of slow growth abroad. In light of these downside risks that might prolong the recession, the Administration endorses the ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES bipartisan economic security package to insure a quick and successful transition from contraction to expansion. This chapter begins with a fuller review of recent economic developments and policy actions. The chapter goes on to present the Administration’s economic assumptions that underpin the 2003 Budget projections and to compare these with the forecasts of the private sector and the Congressional Budget Office. The economic assumptions are conservative and close to those of the Congressional Budget Office and the consensus of private sector forecasters, both in the near-term and over the Budget horizon to 2012. As such, the Administration’s assumptions provide a prudent basis for the budget balance projections. The following sections of the chapter describe how the economic assumptions have been revised since those of the 2002 Budget and how the changes in economic assumptions, policies and technical factors since last year have affected projected budget surpluses. The next section presents cyclical and structural components of the surplus. The chapter concludes with estimates of the sensitivity of the budget to changes in economic assumptions. Recent Developments The 2000–2001 Economic Slowdown: The slowdown in the economy’s growth rate began in mid-2000, well before the onset of the recession in March 2001. During the second half of 2000, the economy expanded at only a 1.6 percent annual rate, and during the first half of 2001 growth slowed further to a mere 0.8 percent annual pace. A number of factors contributed to the deceleration of economic activity: • First, from the end of 1995 through mid-2000 real GDP growth was at an unsustainably strong pace, averaging 4.3 percent per year. By mid-2000, it was clear to most observers that growth would have to slow for some period of time to permit the economy to return to its potential level. • Second, the cost of credit rose during 1999 and the first half of 2000, as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to avoid an acceleration of inflation. • Third, the stock market fell after March 2000, with an especially pronounced drop for high-tech firms. The loss in equity wealth slowed the growth of consumer spending and raised the cost of capital to business. With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that the stock market at the end of the 1990s had reached unsustainable heights, especially for high-tech firms. • Fourth, energy prices spiked in 1999 and 2000. The higher energy prices acted like a tax on consumers, leaving them with less income to spend on non-energy goods and services. Profits of nonenergy producing businesses were squeezed by the higher costs of production. • Finally, by late 2000, businesses found themselves with excess fixed capital and unwanted inventories. In response, firms sharply reduced business fixed investment and inventories during 2001. 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Despite the equity losses, consumer spending continued to sustain the economy’s growth after mid-2000. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation accounts for two-thirds of GDP and residential investment another 4 percent. With 70 percent of the economy growing, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, real GDP continued to expand slowly through the second quarter of 2001. Residential investment also expanded during the period of decelerating GDP growth, spurred by historically low mortgage interest rates. During 2001, the rate on 30year mortgages averaged 7.0 percent, the lowest level since the 1960s. Housing starts actually increased after mid-2000 and total home sales set a record high in 2001. The business sector was the major source of restraint responsible for the deceleration of GDP growth. After eight successive years of double-digit growth, real investment in equipment and software slowed sharply beginning in the third quarter of 2000, and declined in each of the next four quarters. The decrease in investment in high-technology equipment was especially pronounced, but spending on other types of equipment and structures also declined. As the economy’s growth slowed, excess capacity emerged in many industries and reduced the immediate need for new capital investment to augment capacity. Businesses also sharply reduced their inventory investment during the second half of 2000 and continued to liquidate inventories in 2001 as they sought to bring stocks back in line with weakened sales. Although inventories are a relatively small component of GDP, they are subject to substantial swings that exert a disproportionately large impact on GDP growth around business cycle turning points. Since the middle of 2000, declining inventory investment has reduced real GDP growth by between onehalf percentage point and 2-1⁄2 percentage points in each quarter. Although the official data are not yet available, inventory liquidation in the fourth quarter of last year appears to have again reduced real GDP growth substantially. Government purchases added a little less than onehalf percentage point to real GDP growth after mid2000. Virtually all of that modest contribution to growth came from State and local spending; Federal government spending hardly increased. Net exports also had only a small impact on GDP growth after mid2000. Growth of U.S. exports was hurt by slow growth abroad, while the growth of U.S. imports was restrained by the deceleration of U.S. domestic demand. As a result, the net export balance, which had deteriorated sharply during the last half of the 1990s, hardly changed after mid-2000. The unemployment rate began rising steadily after its cyclical low in October 2000 at 3.9 percent. Fiscal Policy: In keeping with his campaign pledge, soon after the President took office in January 2001 he proposed substantial tax relief for the American people. That goal was achieved with the passage of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (EGTRRA) in June. The Act, which is projected to re- 21 duce taxes by $1.24 trillion over 11 years, will enable families to keep more of their income and will provide new incentives to work and save. The bill reduces marginal income tax rates; reduces the ‘‘marriage penalty’’ for most married couples; increases the child and adoption tax credit credits; eliminates the estate tax; and increases the annual contribution limits to IRAs, 401k retirement plans, and educational IRAs. Many of these tax reductions became effective starting in 2001 or 2002 and were phased in over several years. The tax reduction package was well timed to support a weakened economy. Beginning in July of 2001, 85 million taxpayers received rebate checks totaling $36 billion. These checks represented a full year’s tax reduction from the creation of the new 10 percent tax bracket carved out of the beginning of the 15 percent tax bracket. In addition, beginning July 1st, payroll tax withholding schedules were reduced to reflect the phasein of the lower marginal income tax rates for those in the 28 percent tax bracket and higher. In January of this year, payroll withholding schedules were lowered to reflect the new 10 percent tax bracket that took the form of a rebate in 2001. All told, the rebate and other withholding changes are estimated to have reduced personal income tax liabilities by $44 billion in calendar year 2001 and are expected to lower them by $52 billion in 2002. The lower taxes enable households to increase spending and pay down debt. Adding in all the other major personal income tax reductions, EGTRRA is estimated to reduce taxpayers’ 2002 calendar year liabilities by about $70 billion. In this Budget, the Administration proposes an economic security package to insure that the economy recovers quickly from the recession. The package includes: speeding up the income tax reductions Congress passed last year as part of EGTRRA; tax refunds to lowerand moderate-income families who did not benefit from the income tax rebates in 2001; providing partial expensing of new investment and reforming the corporate alternative minimum tax. In addition, the Administration supports measures to provide immediate assistance to laid-off workers, both by extending their unemployment benefits and helping them retain their health insurance coverage. Monetary Policy: Beginning in early 2001, the Federal Reserve consistently pursued an easier monetary policy to reinvigorate the unexpectedly weak economy and to offset the shock to confidence from the terrorist attacks of September 11th. The Federal Reserve cut the Federal funds rate by one percentage point in January 2001 and by one-half percentage point in March. In the following months, and especially after September 11th, the Federal Reserve further reduced the Federal funds rate. All told, the funds rate was cut eleven times during 2001, reducing it from 6-1⁄2 percent to 1-3⁄4 percent by early December, the lowest it has been since the early 1960s. Credit markets responded to the monetary easing. Short-term interest rates matched the decline in the funds rate. At the long end of the maturity spectrum, 22 yields had already declined substantially in late 2000 in anticipation of the Fed’s shift in policy, and then fluctuated somewhat during 2001 as prospects for recovery varied. On October 31st, the Treasury announced it was halting sales of the 30-year bond, and the yield on long-term Treasury notes dropped sharply, but within a month yields returned to pre-announcement levels. By January 2002, as the recovery in economic activity appeared close at hand, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note had risen to 5.1 percent, close to the level at which it began 2001. The steeply upward sloping yield curve at the start of 2002 was another signal from credit markets that the economy was about to emerge from recession to recovery. The Recession and the Post-September 11th Economy: The terrorist attacks pushed a weak economy over the edge into an outright contraction. After September 11th, the forces that had been restraining growth since mid-2000 were augmented by temporary disruptions to business travel and tourism and by the temporary shock to confidence that the terrorist attacks had engendered. As a result, real GDP decreased at a 1.3 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter and probably contracted in the October-December quarter as well. 2 Consumer and business confidence plummeted immediately after September 11th. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence dropped 26 percent from August to October. When the financial markets reopened following the attacks, there were sharp declines in asset values. On September 21st, when the stock market hit its low point, the S&P 500 was off 12 percent from its close on September 10th; the NASDAQ was down 16 percent. Clear signs that the recession was taking hold also appeared in the Nation’s labor markets. Payrolls began to shrink after the March business cycle peak but the largest job losses followed the September 11th attacks. All in all, 1.1 million jobs were lost last year, with over 943 thousand jobs lost in the last three months of the year. Manufacturing industries, and especially high-tech and other capital goods industries, experienced the largest job losses. But even the job-generating private service sector industries lost nearly 300,000 jobs last year. Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged during the second half of September and well into October. Layoffs accelerated, especially in industries directly affected by the attacks, such as the airlines, hotels, restaurants and car rentals. The unemployment rate jumped from 5.0 percent in September to 5.8 percent by December. For the year as a whole, the unemployment rate averaged 4.8 percent, the highest level since 1997. The weakening labor market last year was also evident in the declines in the labor force participation rate and in the employment-population ratio. The growing underutilization of physical capital, which began in late 2000, became more pronounced in 2001, especially, after September 11th. By December, 2 The first official estimate of fourth quarter GDP was released at the end of January, after this text was finalized. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES the manufacturing capacity utilization rate was only 73 percent, well off the 82 percent of mid-2000. The operating rate in high-tech industries fell to 60 percent in December, the lowest level for those industries since record-keeping began in the 1960s. Signs of Recovery: In the closing months of 2001, there were tentative signs that the economy was about to emerge from the recession. After hitting bottom on September 21st, the stock market rose sharply and the yield curve steepened. Consumer confidence jumped 10 percent in December, and surveys revealed that consumers’ expectations about the future had nearly returned to the levels attained in August. Despite the shocks to confidence, consumers were still willing to make big-ticket purchases in the fourth quarter. Motor vehicle sales set a record high in the quarter, spurred by zero-percent financing. In past recessions, housing activity contracted sharply while consumer spending usually declined at some point. That pattern was not repeated this time. The considerable stimulus provided by the tax reductions and lower interest rates, and the restoration of confidence following early successes in the war on terrorism, appear to have sustained the household sector through this turbulent period. Other signs of improvement could be seen in the labor markets, where the number of new claims for unemployment insurance tapered off sharply in November and again in December, while job losses in December were much less than in either October or November. Finally, business capital goods orders rose substantially in October and November, a signal that businesses were again beginning to undertake long-term investment commitments. As 2002 began, most forecasters were projecting that real GDP growth would resume in the first or second quarter of the year. Nonetheless, a resumption of strong growth later this year is far from assured. The recent recovery of business and consumer confidence is still fragile and could be shattered by any adverse shocks. Job losses in December, although less than a few months earlier, were substantial and the unemployment rate was still on the rise. Faced with uncertainties about job security, consumers may yet cut back on spending as has often occurred in recessions. Businesses may still be reluctant to invest heavily in new plant and equipment. Finally, it may prove difficult for the hard-hit manufacturing sector to pull out of recession given the continuing weakness in U.S. export markets. Economic Projections The Administration’s economic projections are summarized in Table 2–1. They assume that the policies proposed in the Budget will be adopted, notably the bipartisan economic security package to insure that the recovery does not falter. The Federal Reserve is assumed to pursue a monetary policy that supports a return to sustainable growth while continuing to keep inflation under control. These economic assumptions are conservative and close to those of the Congressional 23 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Table 2–1. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 1 (Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions) Actual 2000 Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Levels, dollar amounts in billions: Current dollars ................................................................ Real, chained (1996) dollars .......................................... Chained price index (1996=100), annual average ........ Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter: Current dollars ................................................................ Real, chained (1996) dollars .......................................... Chained price index (1996=100) .................................... Percent change, year over year: Current dollars ................................................................ Real, chained (1996) dollars .......................................... Chained price index (1996=100) .................................... Projections 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 9,873 10,197 10,481 11,073 11,681 12,321 12,962 13,614 14,299 15,020 15,775 16,569 17,404 9,224 9,313 9,382 9,739 10,101 10,462 10,802 11,136 11,482 11,838 12,204 12,583 12,973 107.0 109.5 111.7 113.7 115.6 117.8 120.0 122.2 124.5 126.8 129.2 131.6 134.1 5.3 2.8 2.4 1.9 –0.5 2.4 4.7 2.7 1.9 5.6 3.8 1.7 5.5 3.7 1.7 5.4 3.5 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 6.5 4.1 2.3 3.3 1.0 2.3 2.8 0.7 2.0 5.6 3.8 1.8 5.5 3.7 1.7 5.5 3.6 1.8 5.2 3.2 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 5.0 3.1 1.9 Incomes, billions of current dollars: Corporate profits before tax ........................................... Wages and salaries ........................................................ Other taxable income 2 ................................................... 845 4,837 2,236 706 5,100 2,297 733 5,246 2,331 848 5,519 2,458 931 5,818 2,547 1,023 6,115 2,650 1,090 6,415 2,750 1,136 6,730 2,839 1,188 7,058 2,937 1,251 7,401 3,042 1,312 7,763 3,152 1,354 8,147 3,265 1,419 8,549 3,386 Consumer Price Index (all urban): 3 Level (1982–84=100), annual average .......................... Percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter ...... Percent change, year over year .................................... 172.3 3.4 3.4 177.2 2.0 2.9 180.5 2.4 1.8 184.5 2.2 2.2 188.7 2.3 2.3 193.2 2.4 2.4 197.8 2.4 2.4 202.6 2.4 2.4 207.4 2.4 2.4 212.4 2.3 2.4 217.3 2.3 2.3 222.3 2.3 2.3 227.4 2.3 2.3 4.0 4.0 5.5 4.8 5.8 5.9 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 3.7 3.7 6.9 4.6 4.1 2.6 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 5.8 6.0 3.4 5.0 2.2 5.1 3.5 5.1 4.0 5.1 4.3 5.1 4.3 5.2 4.3 5.2 4.3 5.2 4.3 5.2 4.3 5.3 4.3 5.3 4.3 5.3 Unemployment rate, civilian, percent: Fourth quarter level ........................................................ Annual average ............................................................... Federal pay raises, January, percent: Military 4 ........................................................................... Civilian 5 .......................................................................... Interest rates, percent: 91-day Treasury bills 6 .................................................... 10-year Treasury notes .................................................. 1 Based on information available as of late November 2001. interest, dividend and proprietor’s components of personal income. adjusted CPI for all urban consumers. 4 Percentages apply to basic pay only; 2002 figure is average of various rank- and longevity-specific adjustments; adjustments for housing and subsistence allowances will be determined by the Secretary of Defense. 5 Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments. 6 Average rate, secondary market (bank discount basis). 2 Rent, 3 Seasonally Budget Office and the consensus of private sector forecasters, as described in more detail below. There are both upside and downside risks to the assumptions. If the favorable productivity performance since 1995 is maintained in the years ahead real GDP growth may be stronger than assumed here. On the other hand, the recession might prove deeper than expected or the recovery weaker, risks that would increase if Congress again fails to pass the bipartisan economic security package. The Budget assumptions take a balanced view of these risks and are intended to avoid either over- or under-estimation of available budgetary resources. Real GDP: Assuming passage of the bipartisan economic security package, the recession is projected to end early in 2002 and the recovery is expected to be firmly established during the second half of the year. On a calendar year basis, real GDP is projected to rise 0.7 percent in 2002, following a 1.0 percent gain in 2001. Because of the timing of the business cycle, the transition from recession to recovery can be seen more clearly in the fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter growth rates in Table 2–1, which are –0.5 percent during the recession year of 2001 and 2.7 percent during the recovery year of 2002. Following the usual cyclical pattern, during the early stages of the economic expansion real growth is projected to exceed the long-run sustainable rate. During this period, the unemployment rate is projected to decline until it reaches a sustainable level of 4.9 percent in 2005. From 2006 through 2012, real GDP is projected to increase 3.1 percent per year, and the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.9 percent. The largest contribution to GDP growth in the nearterm is expected to come as massive inventory liquidation gives way to renewed accumulation during 2002 as businesses rebuild their depleted inventories. Beyond this year, inventories are likely to grow in line with sales and their contribution to GDP growth is likely to be quite small. After 2002, real growth is expected to be primarily supported by a return to strong growth of business investment, especially in productive hightech capital, and by the moderate growth of consumer spending. Overall GDP growth, however, is not pro- 24 jected to return to the very rapid rates experienced in the last half of the 1990s. During those years, a stock market boom contributed to unsustainable growth rates of investment and consumer spending. Residential investment is expected to benefit from relatively low mortgage rates and growing demand for second homes for vacation and retirement. However, underlying demographic trends will make for a relatively moderate growth of homebuilding in the years ahead. The Federal, State and local government components of GDP are also expected to grow at a moderate pace. Faster growth of Federal spending on security requirements is expected to be coupled with more moderate growth in other spending. State and local government spending is projected to be restrained by lingering fiscal pressures that developed during the recession. During 2002, the foreign sector is likely to exert a drag on real GDP growth. The recovery of world economic growth is expected to be led by the United States, which will tend to increase our imports at a time when our exports will still be hurt by slow growth abroad. In subsequent years, growth in our major trading partners is projected to pick up again and the net export sector will no longer be a source of restraint, and may even make a small contribution to GDP growth. Potential GDP: The growth of potential GDP is assumed to be 3.1 percent per year through 2012. Potential growth is approximately equal to the sum of the trend growth rates of the labor force and productivity. The labor force component is assumed to rise 1.0 percent per year on average. Potential productivity in the nonfarm business sector is assumed to grow 2.1 percent per year during 2002–2012, which is higher than the 1973–1995 average of 1.4 percent but lower than the 1995–2001 average of 2.4 percent. The assumed growth of potential productivity in the nonfarm business sector is close to the historical averages experienced both over the longterm of 1948–2001 and over the medium-term between the cyclical peaks in 1990 and 2001. The potential productivity trend is assumed to be somewhat below the average productivity growth of the last six years for two reasons: • First, growth of business investment last year and in the next few years is likely to be somewhat less than experienced during the last half of the 1990s. As a result, there is likely to be a somewhat slower growth of capital per worker. • Second, the fight against terrorism is likely to slow potential productivity growth as conventionally measured, at least temporarily. Businesses and governments will have to spend tens of billions of dollars to reduce the risks of terrorist attacks and to minimize the damage they might do if they occur. Although this spending will add to the Nation’s well-being, much of this spending will not increase measured productivity growth, and could possibly diminish it. After a transition period, however, potential productivity growth is ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES not likely to be significantly affected by the new security measures. Inflation and Unemployment: Price inflation slowed last year, restrained by falling energy prices and growing slack in labor and capital markets. On a year-overyear basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased just 2.8 percent in 2001, down from 3.4 percent in 2000. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the ‘‘core’’ CPI rose 2.7 percent last year, which was slightly higher than the 2.4 percent of 2000. Over the past year, the consensus of private sector forecasters and the Administration have edged up their estimate of the unemployment rate that is consistent with stable inflation, from 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent. Although there is a wide range of uncertainty surrounding any estimate of the ‘‘NAIRU’’ (the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), the small increase in both the core CPI last year and in average hourly earnings suggest that the NAIRU may be slightly higher than last year’s 4.8 percent average unemployment rate. Nonetheless, at 4.9 percent, the NAIRU estimate is still well below the estimates that prevailed just a few years ago, reflecting the experience of recent years that demonstrated that the economy could operate at lower levels of unemployment without experiencing accelerating inflation. The considerable slack in labor and product markets created by the recession is expected to restrain the growth of wages and prices this year. The unemployment rate is projected to decline steadily beginning in 2002 but still remain above the 4.9 percent NAIRU estimate until 2005, implying progressively lower inflation during these years. The CPI is expected to slow to 2.4 percent by 2006 and then remain at around that level. The GDP chain-weighted price index, which increased 2.3 percent in 2001, is projected to slow to 1.9 percent by 2006 and then stay at that level. Increases in the CPI tend to be slightly larger than those of the GDP measure of inflation in part because sharply falling computer prices exert less of an impact on the CPI than on the GDP measure. In addition, the CPI uses a fixed market basket for its weights while overall GDP inflation uses a chain-weight system that reflects shifts in buying patterns, generally away from goods and services with increasing relative prices and towards those with decreasing relative prices. Interest Rates: The budget’s interest-rate assumptions are based on information as of late November. They project a rise in short-term rates through 2005 because the transition from recession to expansion will increase short-term credit demand. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is projected to remain at around the 5.1 percent level reached when the assumptions were finalized. This projection assumes that the market price as of that date incorporated all relevant information, including the consensus view that the economy was about to enter an extended period of sustained economic growth. Income Shares: The share of total taxable income in nominal GDP is projected to decline gradually. The 25 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS share of wages and salaries is expected to trend lower as the share of nonwage benefits in compensation rises and as the labor compensation share of GDP declines to its longer-term average. The profits share, which fell sharply during the recession, is projected to rise in the initial recovery years, when a cyclical increase in productivity growth is likely to hold down unit costs and boost profit margins. Comparison with CBO and Private-Sector Forecasts The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and many private-sector forecasters also make projections. The CBO projection is used by Congress in formulating budget policy. In the executive branch, this function is performed jointly by the Treasury, the Council of Economic Advisers, and the Office of Management and Budget. Private-sector forecasts are often used by businesses for long-term planning. Table 2–2 compares the Budget assumptions with projections by the CBO and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private forecasts. The Administration’s projections assume that the President’s policy proposals in the Budget, including Table 2–2. the economic stimulus package, will be adopted. CBO normally assumes that current law will continue to hold. The private sector forecasts are based on appraisals of the most-likely policy outcomes, which can vary considerably among forecasters. Despite these differences in policy assumptions, the three sets of projections are usually very close for the key economic assumptions. The differences among them are generally well within the normal margin of error for such forecasts. Currently, the three sets of projections agree on the timing of the recovery and envision similar economic conditions during the subsequent expansion. For real GDP growth, the Administration, CBO and the Blue Chip consensus anticipate that the economy will recover from the 2001 recession in 2002 and grow even faster in 2003. The differences between the Administration’s projections in each year and those of the CBO and Blue Chip are quite small. Over the elevenyear span 2002–2012, all three have an identical forecast average of 3.1 percent annual real GDP growth COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (Calendar years) Projections Real GDP (billions of 1996 dollars): CBO January ...................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget ....................................... 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average, 2002–12 9,398 9,410 9,382 9,782 9,742 9,739 10,146 10,069 10,101 10,471 10,401 10,462 10,804 10,738 10,802 11,145 11,075 11,136 11,493 11,425 11,482 11,850 11,791 11,838 12,216 12,168 12,204 12,590 12,557 12,583 12,972 12,959 12,973 ................ ................ ................ Real GDP (chain-weighted): 1 CBO January ...................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget ....................................... 0.8 1.0 0.7 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Chain-weighted GDP Price Index: 1 CBO January ...................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget ....................................... 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.9 Consumer Price Index (all-urban): 1 CBO January ...................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget ....................................... 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 Unemployment rate: 3 CBO January ...................................... Blue Chip Consensus January 2 ........ 2003 Budget ....................................... 6.1 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.1 5.1 Interest rates: 3 91-day Treasury bills: CBO January .................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 .... 2003 Budget ................................... 2.2 2.1 2.2 4.5 3.4 3.5 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.0 10-year Treasury notes: 3 CBO January .................................. Blue Chip Consensus January 2 .... 2003 Budget ................................... 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.1 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.8 5.7 5.1 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.2 5.8 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.3 5.8 5.8 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.2 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Aspen Publishers, Inc. 1 Year over year percent change. 2 January 2002 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for 2002 and 2003; Blue Chip October 2001 long run extension for 2004–2012. 3 Annual averages, percent. 26 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES and the level of real GDP projected for 2012 is nearly the same in the three forecasts. 3 All three forecasts anticipate low and stable GDP inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent annually during the forecast period. The Administration’s unemployment rate projection is very close to the Blue Chip’s while CBO’s projected unemployment rate is somewhat above the other two forecasts. In the outyears, the Administration and the Blue Chip project a 4.9 percent rate; CBO projects 5.2 percent. All three forecasts have similar interest rate projections for 2002, and foresee a rise in short-term interest rates in 2003 as the expansion gathers momentum. CBO projects a somewhat sharper rise in 2003 than the other two forecasts. During the outyears, the Blue Chip and CBO short-term projections are similar and slightly above those of the Administration. The Administration also projects somewhat less of an increase in long-term rates than the other two forecasts. Changes in Economic Assumptions As shown in Table 2–3, the economic assumptions underlying this Budget have been revised from those of the 2002 Budget to reflect unanticipated cyclical developments and the implications of the terrorist attacks. The current projection of real GDP growth has a pronounced cyclical swing that takes into account the recession during 2001 and the likely pick-up in activity in the recovery and expansion phases of the 3 The Blue Chip consensus forecast for 2002–2003 is from January, 2002 Blue Chip Economic Indicators; the 2004–2012 forecast is from October, 2001. Table 2–3. business cycle. On a year-over-year basis, real GDP growth is considerably slower in 2001 and 2002 than projected in the prior Budget assumptions and faster during 2003–2006. From 2007 onwards, however, real GDP growth in this and the prior Budget is projected to be 3.1 percent yearly, the same as the estimate of potential GDP growth during those years. Consistent with the near-term increase in unemployment and the lower level of interest rates at the end of 2001, inflation and interest rates are projected to be lower than in the previous Budget. Primarily because growth during the initial years of the expansion is not expected to be as high as the 4 percent or more rate that has occurred in past recoveries, during 2001–2005 real GDP growth is now expected to average 0.5 percentage point less per year than previously projected. Consequently, as shown in the table, the level of real GDP is projected to be lower in each year than forecast in last year’s assumptions, and from 2006 onward the level of real GDP is now projected to be about 2 percent lower than envisaged in last year’s Budget assumptions. Over the past year, the CBO and the Blue Chip have made similar reductions in their estimate of average growth during 2001–2011 and, as a result, have also lowered their estimate of the level of real GDP in 2011 by an amount similar to that in the Budget assumptions. Thus, the consensus view is that this cycle of recession and expansion is likely to be different from those of the past when the level of real GDP eventually returned to the pre-recession trend. As explained below, COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS IN THE 2002 AND 2003 BUDGETS (Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions) Nominal GDP: 2002 1 ............................................................................................. 2003 ............................................................................................... Real GDP (1996 dollars): 2002 1 ............................................................................................. 2003 ............................................................................................... Real GDP (percent change): 2 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... GDP price index (percent change): 2 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... Consumer Price Index (percent change): 2 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... Civilian unemployment rate (percent): 3 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... 91-day Treasury bill rate (percent): 3 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... 10-year Treasury note rate (percent): 3 2002 ............................................................................................... 2003 ............................................................................................... 1 Adjusted 2 Year for July 2001 NIPA revisions. over year. year average. 3 Calendar 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 10,328 10,197 10,892 10,481 11,478 11,073 12,094 11,681 12,736 12,321 13,413 12,962 14,125 13,614 14,871 14,299 15,657 15,020 16,481 15,775 17,347 16,569 9,440 9,313 9,752 9,382 10,065 9,739 10,387 10,101 10,714 10,462 11,050 10,802 11,397 11,136 11,756 11,482 12,121 11,838 12,494 12,204 12,879 12,583 2.3 1.0 3.3 0.7 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.7 3.1 3.6 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 2.6 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 4.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 4.5 5.5 4.5 5.2 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 4.6 4.9 5.3 3.4 5.6 2.2 5.6 3.5 5.6 4.0 5.3 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.0 4.3 5.4 5.0 5.6 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.2 5.7 5.3 5.7 5.3 27 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS the unusual nature of this business cycle implies substantially lower projected budget surpluses, even when the economy returns to its potential growth rate. The slower average real GDP growth rate for the forecast period, and the resulting lower level of real GDP, primarily reflects three factors: • First, the overhang of capital that developed unexpectedly during 2001 has resulted in lower actual business investment during 2001 and slower growth of investment for the next few years than projected in the 2002 Budget assumptions. As a result, productivity growth for the next few years is projected to be somewhat slower because of the slower growth of capital per worker. • Second, in the aftermath of the September 11th terrorist attacks, resources which might have been invested in expanding productive capacity will be diverted to enhance security. This diversion will slow productivity growth and real GDP growth slightly for the next few years. • Finally, the Administration’s estimate of the longrun sustainable level of the unemployment rate has been revised up modestly from 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent, as has the Blue Chip’s, which implies a lower level of real GDP for the largely unchanged projected labor force. Sources of Change in the Budget Since Last Year The sources of the change in the budget outlook from the 2002 Budget pre-policy baseline to the 2003 Budget policy projection are shown in Table 2–4. The second block shows that enacted legislation reduced the projected pre-policy surpluses of $5.6 trillion during 2002–2011 by $2.1 trillion. The third and fourth blocks quantify the impact on the budget outlook from changes in the economic assumptions and technical factors. Technical factors are those changes that are not due to explicit economic assumptions or legislation, such as income from stock options and the effective tax rate on corporate profits. Because of the interaction of economic developments and technical factors, it is difficult to estimate accurately their separate budgetary impacts. Block 5 shows that the combined changes due to economic and technical factors reduced projected surpluses by $1,345 billion. The Addendum shows that the lower projected level of real GDP in each year accounted for $851 billion of the reduced surpluses. Block 6 shows that policies proposed in this Budget are expected to reduce cumulative surpluses by $1,556 billion. Block 7 shows the resulting 2003 Budget policy surplus projection. Structural and Cyclical Balances When the economy is operating below potential and the unemployment rate exceeds the long-run sustainable average, as is projected to be the case for the next few years, receipts are lower than they would be if resources were more fully employed, and outlays for unemployment-sensitive programs (such as unemploy- ment compensation and food stamps) are higher. As a result, the surplus is smaller, (or the deficit larger) than would be the case if unemployment were at the sustainable long-run average. The portion of the surplus (or deficit) that can be traced to this factor is called the cyclical component. The balance is the portion that would remain if the unemployment rate were at its long-run value, which is called the structural surplus (or structural deficit). Compared to the actual, unadjusted surplus or deficit, the structural balance gives a clearer picture of the stance of fiscal policy because this part of the surplus or deficit will persist even when the economy is operating at the sustainable level of unemployment. For this reason, changes in the structural balance give a better picture of the independent impact of budget policy on the economy than does the unadjusted budget balance, which reflects the combined impact of policy and cyclical economic conditions on the budget. From 1997 to 2001, unemployment was lower than could be expected to persist in the long run. Therefore, as shown in Table 2–5, in 1997 the structural deficit exceeded the actual unadjusted deficit and in 1998–2001 the structural surplus was smaller than the actual unadjusted structural surplus. In 2002, when the unemployment rate is projected to be above the sustainable level, the actual deficit is projected to be $106 billion at a time when the structural deficit is expected to be $18 billion. Beginning in 2006, the unadjusted and the structural surplus are about equal because the unemployment rate is projected to be at its sustainable level. In the early 1990s, large swings in net outlays for deposit insurance (the S&L bailouts) had substantial impacts on deficits, but had little concurrent impact on economic performance. It therefore became customary to remove deposit insurance outlays as well as the cyclical component of the surplus or deficit from the actual surplus or deficit to compute the adjusted structural balance. Deposit insurance net outlays are projected to be very small in the coming years. Therefore, the adjusted structural surplus and the unadjusted structural surplus are nearly identical during the forecast horizon. Sensitivity of the Budget to Economic Assumptions Both receipts and outlays are affected by changes in economic conditions. This sensitivity complicates budget planning because errors in economic assumptions lead to errors in the budget projections. It is therefore useful to examine the implications of alternative economic assumptions. Many of the budgetary effects of changes in economic assumptions are fairly predictable, and a set of rules of thumb embodying these relationships can aid in estimating how changes in the economic assumptions would alter outlays, receipts, and the surplus or deficit. Economic variables that affect the budget do not usually change independently of one another. Output and 28 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 2–4. SOURCES OF CHANGE IN BUDGET TOTALS (In billions of dollars) 2002 (1) 2002 Budget baseline Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. 2003 2004 2005 2006 20022011 2007 2,221 1,938 2,324 1,991 2,438 2,051 2,569 2,130 2,698 2,182 2,836 2,250 283 334 387 439 515 585 5,637 –33 61 –83 62 –104 70 –102 76 –126 86 –137 95 –1,127 943 Surplus reduction (-), enacted legislation .................................................................... (3) Changes due to economic assumptions: Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. –95 –145 –174 –179 –212 –232 –2,070 –82 –7 –91 –15 –81 –13 –87 –12 –100 –11 –109 –8 –1,077 –63 Surplus reduction (-), economic ................................................................................... (4) Changes due to technical factors: Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. –76 –76 –67 –75 –89 –101 –1,014 –94 27 –29 32 –19 18 –14 3 –10 8 –9 3 –197 135 Surplus reduction (-), technical .................................................................................... –121 –61 –37 –17 –19 –12 –331 (5) Surplus reduction, economic and technical subtotal ................................................. –197 –138 –104 –92 –108 –114 –1,345 (6) Changes due to 2003 Budget policy: Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. –65 32 –73 59 –59 63 –28 80 –6 103 –9 126 –414 1,143 –1,556 Unified budget surplus ................................................................................................. (2) Changes due to enacted legislation: Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. Surplus reduction (-), policy ......................................................................................... (7) 2003 Budget totals (policy) Receipts ............................................................................................................................. Outlays .............................................................................................................................. –97 –132 –122 –108 –110 –136 1,946 2,052 2,048 2,128 2,175 2,189 2,338 2,277 2,455 2,369 2,572 2,468 Unified budget surplus ................................................................................................. –106 –80 –14 61 86 104 665 Addendum: Surplus Reduction due to Change in Economic Assumptions: Lower Real GDP ............................................................................................................... Higher Unemployment ...................................................................................................... Lower Inflation ................................................................................................................... All Other ............................................................................................................................ –70 –16 –1 11 –85 –7 –1 16 –79 –4 –2 18 –75 –3 –6 9 –75 –4 –10 –1 –80 –6 –15 –1 –851 –64 –159 60 Surplus reduction (-), economic ................................................................................... –76 –76 –67 –75 –89 –101 –1,014 Note: Changes in interest costs due to receipts changes included in outlay lines. employment tend to move together in the short run: a high rate of real GDP growth is generally associated with a declining rate of unemployment, while moderate or negative growth is usually accompanied by rising unemployment. In the long run, however, changes in the average rate of growth of real GDP are mainly due to changes in the rates of growth of productivity and labor force, and are not necessarily associated with changes in the average rate of unemployment. Inflation and interest rates are also closely interrelated: a higher expected rate of inflation increases interest rates, while lower expected inflation reduces rates. Changes in real GDP growth or inflation have a much greater cumulative effect on the budget over time if they are sustained for several years than if they last for only one year. Highlights of the budgetary effects of the above rules of thumb are shown in Table 2–6. For real growth and employment: • As shown in the first block, if real GDP growth is lower by one percentage point in calendar year 2002 only and the unemployment rate rises by one-half percentage point more than in the budget assumptions, the fiscal year 2002 deficit is estimated to increase by $11.5 billion; receipts in 2002 would be lower by $9.3 billion, and outlays would be higher by $2.1 billion, primarily for unemployment-sensitive programs. In fiscal year 2003, the estimated receipts shortfall would grow further to $19.3 billion, and outlays would increase by $7.1 billion relative to the base, even though the growth rate in calendar 2003 equaled the rate originally assumed. This is because the level of real (and nominal) GDP and taxable incomes would be permanently lower, and unemployment permanently higher. The budget effects (including 29 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS Table 2–5. ADJUSTED STRUCTURAL BALANCE (In billions of dollars) 1996 1997 Unadjusted surplus or deficit (–) ...................................... Cyclical component ....................................................... –107.5 –13.7 –22.0 15.5 Structural surplus or deficit (–) ......................................... Deposit insurance outlays ............................................ –91.5 –8.4 Adjusted structural surplus or deficit (–) .......................... –99.9 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 69.2 45.3 124.6 64.3 236.4 81.9 127.1 42.1 –106.2 –88.0 –80.2 –77.5 –13.7 –45.5 61.1 –17.5 86.2 –0.5 104.0 0.0 –27.9 –14.4 35.7 –4.4 79.8 –5.3 164.4 –3.1 85.0 –1.4 –18.2 0.2 –2.7 1.4 31.7 0.4 78.7 –0.2 86.7 –0.3 104.0 –0.4 –42.3 31.3 74.5 161.3 83.5 –17.9 –1.3 32.1 78.5 86.4 103.6 NOTE: The NAIRU is assumed to be 5.2% through calendar year 1998 and 4.9% thereafter. growing interest costs associated with smaller surpluses) would continue to grow slightly in each successive year. During 2003–2012, the cumulative reduction in the budget surplus is estimated to be $394 billion. • The budgetary effects are much larger if the real growth rate is one percentage point lower in each year than initially assumed and the unemployment rate is unchanged, as shown in the second block. This scenario might occur if trend productivity is permanently lower than initially assumed. In this case, the estimated reduction in the surplus is much larger than in the first scenario. In this example, during 2003–2012, the cumulative reduction in the budget surplus is estimated to be $1.9 trillion. Joint changes in interest rates and inflation have a smaller effect on the surplus than equal percentage point changes in real GDP growth. • The third block shows the effect of a one percentage point higher rate of inflation and one percentage point higher interest rates during calendar year 2002 only. In subsequent years, the price level and nominal GDP would be one percent higher than in the base case, but interest rates are assumed to return to their base levels. In 2003, outlays would be above the base by $16.4 billion, due in part to lagged cost-of-living adjustments; receipts would rise $21.4 billion above the base, however, resulting in an $5.1 billion improvement in the budget balance. In subsequent years, the amounts added to receipts would continue to be larger than the additions to outlays. During 2003–2012, cumulative budget surpluses would be $106 billion larger than in the base case. • In the fourth block example, the rate of inflation and the level of interest rates are higher by one percentage point in all years. As a result, the price level and nominal GDP rise by a cumulatively growing percentage above their base levels. In this case, the effects on receipts and outlays mount steadily in successive years, adding $775 billion to outlays over 2003–2012 and $1,559 billion to receipts, for a net increase in the 2003–2012 surpluses of $784 billion. This rule-of-thumb now shows a more positive net budget outcome than was estimated a few years ago, when the interest outlays were larger because of higher levels of public debt. The table also shows the interest rate and the inflation effects separately. These separate effects for interest rates and inflation rates do not sum to the effects for simultaneous changes in both. This occurs in part because the combined effects of two changes in assumptions affecting debt financing patterns and interest costs may differ from the sum of the separate effects. • The outlay effects of a one percentage point increase in interest rates alone is now relatively small, as shown in the fifth block. The receipts portion of this rule-of-thumb is due to the Federal Reserve’s deposit of earnings on its securities portfolio. • The sixth block shows that a sustained one percentage point increase in the GDP chain-weighted price index and in CPI inflation increase cumulative surpluses by a substantial $962 billion during 2003–2012. This large effect is because the receipts from a higher tax base exceeds the combination of higher outlays from mandatory costof-living adjustments and lower receipts from CPI indexation of tax brackets. The last entry in the table shows rules of thumb for the added interest cost associated with changes in the budget surplus or deficit. The effects of changes in economic assumptions in the opposite direction are approximately symmetric to those shown in the table. The impact of a one percentage point lower rate of inflation or higher real growth would have about the same magnitude as the effects shown in the table, but with the opposite sign. 30 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 2–6. SENSITIVITY OF THE BUDGET TO ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS (In billions of dollars) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20032012 –9.3 2.1 –19.3 7.1 –21.3 7.4 –22.3 9.1 –23.1 11.0 –24.1 13.0 –25.4 14.9 –26.7 16.8 –28.0 19.0 –29.3 21.4 –30.9 24.0 –250.4 143.7 Decrease in surplus (–) ..................................... (2) Sustained during 2002–2012, with no change in unemployment: Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... –11.5 –26.5 –28.7 –31.4 –34.2 –37.1 –40.2 –43.5 –47.1 –50.7 –54.8 –394.1 –9.4 –* –29.9 0.3 –54.7 1.9 –82.0 4.6 –110.4 8.4 –141.5 13.4 –175.1 19.4 –211.8 26.4 –251.1 35.3 –292.4 45.9 –338.2 58.4 –1,687.1 214.0 Decrease in surplus (–) ..................................... –9.4 –30.2 –56.6 –86.6 –118.8 –154.9 –194.5 –238.2 –286.4 –338.3 –396.6 –1,901.1 10.6 8.4 21.4 16.4 20.9 14.4 19.3 12.2 20.1 11.8 21.1 11.3 22.3 11.0 23.6 11.1 24.9 11.2 26.3 11.4 28.1 11.2 228.0 121.8 2.2 5.1 6.4 7.1 8.3 9.8 11.3 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.9 106.2 10.6 8.3 32.7 24.4 55.4 37.9 77.9 49.9 101.8 61.0 128.5 71.8 158.2 83.0 191.6 94.4 228.3 106.0 268.6 118.3 315.6 128.2 1,558.7 774.8 Increase in surplus (+) ...................................... (5) Interest rates only, sustained during 2002–2012: Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... 2.3 8.3 17.5 28.0 40.8 56.7 75.3 97.2 122.3 150.4 187.4 783.9 1.4 6.8 3.7 17.0 4.7 22.9 5.2 26.1 5.6 28.1 6.0 29.6 6.4 30.5 6.8 31.2 7.2 31.5 7.6 31.4 8.0 30.8 61.1 279.1 Decrease in surplus (–) ..................................... (6) Inflation only, sustained during 2002–2012: Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... –5.4 –13.3 –18.2 –20.9 –22.5 –23.6 –24.1 –24.3 –24.3 –23.9 –22.8 –217.9 9.2 1.5 29.0 7.6 50.7 15.5 72.8 24.8 96.2 34.6 122.5 44.7 151.8 56.0 184.8 68.0 221.1 80.9 261.0 95.2 307.6 108.2 1,497.6 535.6 Increase in surplus (+) ...................................... 7.7 21.4 35.2 47.9 61.6 77.8 95.8 116.8 140.2 165.8 199.4 962.0 Interest Cost of Higher Federal Borrowing (7) Outlay effect of $100 billion increase in the 2002 unified deficit ............................................................... 1.3 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.8 54.8 Budget effect Real Growth and Employment Budgetary effects of 1 percent lower real GDP growth: (1) For calendar year 2002 only: 1 Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... 2002 Inflation and Interest Rates Budgetary effects of 1 percentage point higher rate of: (3) Inflation and interest rates during calendar year 2002 only: Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... Increase in surplus (+) ...................................... (4) Inflation and interest rates, sustained during 2002–2012: Receipts .................................................................. Outlays .................................................................... * $50 million or less. 1 The unemployment rate is assumed to be 0.5 percentage point higher per 1.0 percent shortfall in the level of real GDP. 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET Introduction The Government’s financial condition can only be properly evaluated using a broad range of data—more than would usually be shown on a business balance sheet—and several complementary perspectives. This chapter presents a framework for such analysis. No single table in the chapter is the equivalent of a Federal balance sheet, but taken as a whole, the chapter provides an overview of the Government’s resources, the current and future claims on them, and some idea of what the taxpayer gets in exchange for these resources. This is the kind of assessment for which a financial analyst would turn to a business balance sheet, modified to take into account the Government’s unique roles and circumstances. Because there are important differences between Government and business, and because there are serious limitations on the available data, this chapter’s findings should be interpreted with caution; its conclusions are tentative and subject to future revision. The presentation consists of three parts: • Part I reports on what the Federal Government owns and what it owes. Table 3–1 summarizes this information. The assets and liabilities in this table are a useful starting point for analysis, but they are only a partial reflection of the full range of Government resources and responsibilities. The table provides a comprehensive estimate of the value of the assets actually owned by the Government, but the Government is able to draw on resources in addition to these. It can tax and use other measures to meet future obligations. The liabilities shown in the table include all the binding commitments resulting from prior Government action, but the Government’s responsibilities are much broader than this. • Part II presents possible paths for the Federal budget extending beyond the normal budget window and summarized in Table 3–2. This Part shows the full scope of the Government’s longrun financial burdens and the resources that it will have available to meet them. Some future claims on the Government deserve special emphasis because of their importance to individuals’ retirement plans. Table 3–3 summarizes the condition of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds and how that condition changed between 2000 and 2001. • Part III features information on national economic and social conditions which are affected by what the Government does. Table 3–4 presents summary data for total national wealth, while highlighting the Federal investments that have contributed to that wealth. Table 3–5 presents a small sample of economic and social indicators. Relationship with FASAB Objectives The framework presented here meets the stewardship objective 1 for Federal financial reporting recommended by the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASAB) and adopted for use by the Federal Government in September 1993. Federal financial reporting should assist report users in assessing the impact on the country of the Government’s operations and investments for the period and how, as a result, the Government’s and the Nation’s financial conditions have changed and may change in the future. Federal financial reporting should provide information that helps the reader to determine: 3a. Whether the Government’s financial position improved or deteriorated over the period. 3b. Whether future budgetary resources will likely be sufficient to sustain public services and to meet obligations as they come due. 3c. Whether Government operations have contributed to the Nation’s current and future well-being. The presentation here is an experimental approach for meeting this objective at the Government-wide level. What Can Be Learned from a Balance Sheet Approach The budget is an essential tool for allocating resources within the Federal Government and between the public and private sectors; but the standard budget presentation, with its focus on annual outlays, receipts, and the surplus or deficit, does not provide all the information needed to analyze the Government’s financial and investment decisions. While a business is ultimately judged by a single number—the bottom line in its balance sheet—for the national Government the ultimate test is how its actions affect the country, and that is not possible to sum up with a single statistic. 1 Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Concepts, Number 1, Objectives of Federal Financial Reporting, September 2, 1993. Other objectives are budgetary integrity, operating performance, and systems and controls. 31 32 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES The data needed to judge the Government’s performance go beyond the assets its owns or the liabilities that might appear on a balance sheet. Consider, for example, Federal investments in education or infrastructure whose returns flow mainly to the private sector and which are often owned by households, private businesses or State and local governments. From a balance-sheet standpoint, these investments might appear to be superfluous or even wasteful, since the Government does not own the assets that these investments generate; but such investments can make a real contribution to the economy and to people’s lives. A framework for evaluating Federal finances needs to take into account the value of such Federal investments, even when the return they earn does not accrue to the Federal Government. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT’S ‘‘BALANCE SHEET’’ 1. According to Table 3–1, the Government’s liabilities exceed its assets. No business could operate in such a fashion. Why does the Government not manage its finances more like a business? The Federal Government has fundamentally different objectives from a business enterprise. The primary goal of every business is to earn a profit, and the Federal Government properly leaves almost all activities at which a profit could be earned to the private sector. For the vast bulk of the Federal Government’s operations, it would be difficult or impossible to charge prices—let alone prices that would cover expenses. The Government undertakes these activities not to improve its balance sheet, but to benefit the Nation—to foster not only monetary but also nonmonetary values. For example, the Federal Government invests in education and research. The Government earns no direct return from these investments; but the Nation and its people are made richer if they are successful. The returns on these investments show up not as an increase in the Government assets but as an increase in the general state of knowledge and in the capacity of the country’s citizens to earn a living. A business’s motives for investment are quite different; business invests to earn a profit for itself, not others, and if its investments are successful, their value will be reflected in its balance sheet. Because the Federal Government’s objectives are different, its balance sheet behaves differently, and should be interpreted differently. 2. Table 3–1 seems to imply that the Government is insolvent. Is it? No. Just as the Federal Government’s responsibilities are of a different nature than those of a private business, so are its resources. Government solvency must be evaluated in different terms. What the table shows is that those Federal obligations that are most comparable to the liabilities of a business corporation exceed the estimated value of the assets the Federal Government actually owns. However, the Government has access to other resources through its sovereign powers. These powers, which include taxation, allow the Government to meet its present obligations and those that are anticipated from future operations even though the Government’s assets are less than its liabilities. 3. The financial markets clearly recognize this reality. The Federal Government’s implicit credit rating is the best in the United States; lenders are willing to lend it money at interest rates substantially below those charged to private borrowers. This would not be true if the Government were really insolvent or likely to become so. Where governments totter on the brink of insolvency, lenders are either unwilling to lend them money, or do so only in return for a substantial interest premium. Why does the Government not keep a proper set of books? The Government is not a business, and accounting standards designed to illuminate how much a business earns and how much equity it has could provide misleading information if applied to the Government. The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board (FASAB) has developed, and the Government has adopted, a conceptual accounting framework that reflects the Government’s distinct functions and answers the questions for which Government should be accountable. This framework addresses budgetary integrity, operating performance, stewardship, and systems and controls. FASAB has also developed, and the Government has adopted, a full set 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT’S ‘‘BALANCE SHEET’’—Continued of accounting standards. Federal agencies now issue audited financial reports that follow these standards and an audited Government-wide consolidated financial report is now being issued as well. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) has recognized FASAB as the body designated to establish generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for Federal governmental entities. In short, the Federal Government does follow GAAP just as businesses and State and local governments do for their activities, although the relevant principles differ among the groups. This chapter is intended to address the ‘‘stewardship objective’’—assessing the interrelated condition of the Federal Government and the Nation. The data in this chapter illuminate the tradeoffs and connections between making the Federal Government ‘‘better off’’ and making the Nation ‘‘better off.’’ The Government does not have a ‘‘bottom line’’ comparable to that of a business corporation, and some analysts have found the absence of a bottom line to be frustrating, but it would not help to pretend that such a number exists when clearly it does not. 4. Why is Social Security not shown as a liability in Table 3–1? Future Social Security benefits are a political and moral responsibility of the Federal Government, but these benefits are not a liability in the usual sense. The Government has unilaterally decreased as well as increased Social Security benefits in the past, and future reforms could alter them again. When the amount in question can be changed unilaterally, it is not ordinarily considered a liability. Other Federal programs exist that are similar to Social Security in the promises they make— Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans pensions, and Food Stamps—for example. Few have suggested counting the future benefits expected under these programs as Federal liabilities, yet it would be difficult to justify a different accounting treatment for them if Social Security were to be classified as a liability. There is no bright line dividing Social Security from other programs that promise benefits to people, and all the Government programs that do should be accounted for similarly. Furthermore, if future Social Security benefits were to be treated as a liability, logic would suggest that future payroll tax receipts that are earmarked to finance those benefits ought to be considered an asset. Other tax receipts, however, are not counted as Government assets, and for good reason. The Government does not own the wealth on which its future taxes depends. Counting other taxes on the Government’s balance sheet would be wrong, while treating Social Security taxes differently from other taxes would be highly questionable. Under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), Social Security is not considered to be a liability, so omitting it from Table 3–1 is consistent with the accounting standards developed by FASAB. 5. When the baby-boom generation begins to retire in large numbers about ten years from now, the deficit could be larger than it ever was before. Should this not be reflected in evaluating the Government’s financial condition? The aging of the U.S. population will become dramatically evident when the baby-boomers begin to retire, and this demographic transition poses serious long-term problems for Federal entitlement programs and the budget. The second part of this chapter describes how the budget is likely to evolve under possible alternative scenarios when the baby-boomers retire and beyond. It is clear from these projections, and from similar information provided by the annual Trustees’ Reports for Social Security and Medicare, that reforms are needed in these programs to meet the long-term challenges. 33 34 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT’S ‘‘BALANCE SHEET’’—Continued 6. Would it be sensible for the Government to borrow to finance needed capital—permitting a deficit in the budget—so long as the borrowing did not exceed the amount spent on investments? This rule might not actually permit much extra borrowing. If the Government were to finance new capital by borrowing, it should plan to pay off the debt incurred to finance old capital as the capital is used up. The net new borrowing permitted by this rule should not exceed the amount of net investment after adjusting for capital consumption, but as discussed in Chapter 7 of Analytical Perspectives, Federal net investment in physical capital is usually not very large and on occasion has even been negative, so little deficit spending would have been justified by this borrowing-for-investment criterion, at least in recent years. The Federal Government also funds substantial amounts of physical capital that it does not own, such as highways and research facilities, and it funds investment in intangible ‘‘capital’’ such as education and training and the conduct of research and development. A private business would never borrow to spend on assets that would be owned by someone else. However, such spending is a principal function of Government. It is not clear whether this type of capital investment would fall under the borrowing-for-investment criterion. Certainly, these investments do not create Federally owned assets, which suggests they should not be included for this purpose even though they are an important part of national wealth. There is another difficulty with the logic of borrowing to invest. Businesses expect investments to earn a return large enough to cover their cost. In contrast, the Federal Government does not generally expect to receive a direct payoff from its investments, whether or not it owns them. In this sense, Government investments are no different from other Government expenditures, and the fact that they provide services over a longer period of time is no justification for excluding them when calculating the surplus or deficit. Finally, the Federal Government must pursue policies that support the overall economic wellbeing of the Nation and its security interests. For such reasons, the Government may deem it desirable to run a budget surplus, even if this means paying for its own investments from current receipts, and there will be other times when it is necessary to run a deficit, even one that exceeds Government net investment. Considerations in addition to the size of Federal investment must be weighed in choosing the right level of the surplus or deficit. 7. Is it appropriate to include the Social Security surplus when measuring the Government’s consolidated budget surplus? The Federal budget has many purposes. It should not be surprising that, with more than one purpose, the budget is presented in more than one way. None of these measures is always right, or always wrong; it depends upon the purpose to which the budget is put. For the purpose of measuring the Government’s effects on the economy, it would be misleading to omit Social Security or any other part of the budget, as all parts of the budget affect the economy. For purposes of fiscal discipline, leaving out particular Government activities could actually be dangerous. The principle of a ‘‘unified’’ all-inclusive budget has been used to forestall the practice of moving favored programs off-budget—which has been done to shield those programs from scrutiny and funding discipline. For setting long-run fiscal policy, however, an alternative to the unified budget has been useful. In particular, the Congress has moved Social Security off-budget. The purpose of doing so was to stress the need to provide independent, sustainable funding for Social Security in the long term; and to show the extent to which the rest of the budget has relied on annual Social Security surpluses to make up for its own shortfall. 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET Although it should not be the ending point, a good starting point for analysis is Table 3–1, which shows the Government’s assets and liabilities. This tabulation of net liabilities is based on data from a variety of public and private sources. It has sometimes been suggested that the Federal Government’s assets, if fully accounted for, would exceed its debts. Table 3–1 clearly shows that this has not been correct for decades. Government debts are larger than Government assets, although in recent years, Government budget surpluses did allow the Government to reduce its debt and thereby lower its net liabilities. On the liabilities side, Table 3–1 includes only the Government’s binding obligations—such as Treasury debt and the present discounted value of the pensions owed to Federal employees, a form of deferred compensation. These obligations have counterparts in the business world, and would appear on a business balance sheet. Accrued obligations for Government insurance policies and the estimated present value of failed loan guarantees and deposit insurance claims are also analogous to private liabilities, and are included here with the other Government liabilities. Although large in value, these obligations form only a subset of the Government’s total financial responsibilities. The Federal Government also has resources that go beyond the assets that would normally appear on a balance sheet, such as those that appear in Table 3–1. These other resources include the Government’s sovereign powers to tax, regulate commerce, and set monetary policy. The best way to analyze the limits of all of the Government’s fiscal powers is to make a longrun projection of the Federal budget (as is done in Part II of this chapter). The budget provides a comprehensive measure of the Government’s annual cash flows. Projecting it forward shows how the Government is expected to use its powers to generate cash flows in the future. The Government has established a broad range of programs that dispense cash and other benefits to individual recipients. The Government is not constitutionally obligated to continue payments under these programs; the benefits can be modified or even ended 35 at any time, subject to the decisions of Congress, and such changes are a regular part of the legislative cycle. For this and other reasons, these programs are not Government ‘‘liabilities.’’ It is likely, however, that many of these programs will remain Federal responsibilities in some form for the foreseeable future, and they are projected to continue as such in the longrun projections presented in Part II. The numbers in the budget and in Table 3–1 are silent on the issue of whether the public is receiving value for its tax dollars or whether Federal assets are being used effectively. Information on that point requires performance measures for Government programs supplemented by appropriate information about conditions in the economy and society. Some such data are currently available, but more measures need to be developed to obtain a full picture. The changes in budgeting practices discussed in Chapter 1 will contribute to the long-run goal of more complete information about Government programs by permitting a closer alignment of the cost of programs with performance measures. The presentation that follows consists of a series of tables and charts. Taken together, they serve a similar function to a business balance sheet. The schematic diagram, Chart 3–1, shows how they fit together. The tables and charts should be viewed as an ensemble, the main elements of which are grouped in two broad categories—assets/resources and liabilities/responsibilities. • Reading down the left-hand side of Chart 3–1 shows the range of Federal resources, including assets the Government owns, tax receipts it can expect to collect, and national wealth that provides the base for Government revenues. • Reading down the right-hand side reveals the full range of Federal obligations and responsibilities, beginning with Government’s acknowledged liabilities based on past actions, such as the debt held by the public, and going on to include future budget outlays. This column ends with a set of indicators highlighting areas where Government activity affects society or the economy. 36 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Chart 3-1. A Balance Sheet Presentation For The Federal Government Assets/Resources Liabilities/Responsibilities Federal Assets Federal Liabilities Financial Assets Financial Liabilities Monetary Assets Mortgages and Other Loans Other Financial Assets Less Expected Loan Losses Physical Assets Federal Governmental Assets and Liabilities (Table 3-1) Fixed Reproducible Capital Defense Nondefense Non-reproducible Capital Land Mineral Rights Projected Receipts Net Balance Long-Run Federal Budget Projections (Table 3-2) Change in Trust Funds Balances (Table 3-3) National Assets/Resources Federally Owned Physical Assets State & Local Physical Assets Federal Contribution Deposit Insurance Pension Benefit Guarantees Loan Guarantees Other Insurance Federal Retiree Pension and Health Insurance Liabilities Inventories Resources/Receipts Debt Held by the Public Miscellaneous Guarantees and Insurance Responsibilities/Outlays Discretionary Outlays Mandatory Outlays Social Security Health Programs Other Programs Net Interest Surplus/Deficit National Needs/Conditions National Wealth (Table 3-4) Indicators of economic, social, educational, and environmental conditions Privately Owned Physical Assets Education Capital Federal Contribution Social Indicators (Table 3-5) R&D Capital Federal Contribution PART I—THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S ASSETS AND LIABILITIES Table 3–1 summarizes what the Government owes as a result of its past operations netted against the value of what it owns for a number of years beginning in 1960. Assets and liabilities are measured in terms of constant FY 2001 dollars. Ever since 1960, Government liabilities have exceeded the value of assets (see chart 3–2). In the late 1970s, a speculative run-up in the prices of oil, gold, and other real assets temporarily boosted the value of Federal holdings, but subsequently those prices declined, and only recently have they regained the level they had reached temporarily in 1980.2 Currently, the total real value of Federal assets is estimated to be about 35 percent greater than it was 2 This temporary improvement highlights the importance of the other tables in this presentation. What is good for the Federal Government as an asset holder is not necessarily favorable to the economy. The decline in inflation in the early 1980s reversed the speculative run-up in gold and other commodity prices. This reduced the balance of Federal net assets, but it was good for the economy and the Nation as a whole. in 1960. Meanwhile, Federal liabilities have increased by 173 percent in real terms. The decline in the Federal net asset position has been principally due to persistent Federal budget deficits and the relatively slow increase in Federal asset holdings, although other factors have been important in some years. For example, the decline from 2000 to 2001 was mainly due to a large increase in promised Federal health benefits for military retirees. The increase in the discounted present value of these benefits was large enough to offset a unified budget surplus and a rise in Federal asset values. The shift from budget deficits to budget surpluses in the late 1990s reduced Federal net liabilities, which peaked in 1996. Currently, the net excess of liabilities over assets is about $3.4 trillion, or $12,000 per capita, compared with net liabilities of $3.9 trillion (FY 2001 dollars) and $14,800 per capita (FY 2001 dollars) in 1995. 37 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET Table 3–1. GOVERNMENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES * (As of the end of the fiscal year, in billions of 2001 dollars) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 ASSETS Financial Assets: Cash and Checking Deposits .............................................. Other Monetary Assets ......................................................... Mortgages ............................................................................. Other Loans .......................................................................... less Expected Loan Losses ............................................. Other Treasury Financial Assets ......................................... 43 1 28 102 –1 62 62 1 27 141 –3 77 39 1 40 176 –5 68 31 1 42 176 –9 61 48 2 77 226 –17 86 31 2 78 296 –17 127 42 2 100 209 –20 201 43 1 68 163 –25 241 66 5 81 192 –52 221 57 6 78 191 –38 219 51 12 75 193 –38 232 Total .................................................................................. 235 305 319 302 421 517 535 492 512 513 524 Nonfinancial Assets: Fixed Reproducible Capital: ................................................. Defense ............................................................................ Nondefense ...................................................................... Inventories ............................................................................. Nonreproducible Capital: ...................................................... Land .................................................................................. Mineral Rights .................................................................. 1,019 885 134 269 434 94 340 1,020 842 179 233 446 131 315 1,067 851 215 217 428 165 263 974 712 261 194 633 261 372 865 608 257 240 1,014 333 681 1,025 733 292 274 1,088 346 742 1,085 776 309 242 857 355 501 1,125 793 332 171 638 265 373 1,008 671 338 142 737 358 379 979 641 338 142 943 401 542 969 621 348 142 1,013 426 587 Subtotal ....................................................................... 1,722 1,699 1,711 1,801 2,119 2,387 2,184 1,934 1,887 2,064 2,124 Total Assets ................................................................ 1,957 2,004 2,030 2,103 2,540 2,904 2,718 2,427 2,399 2,577 2,648 1,150 34 1,187 37 1,075 45 1,094 59 1,352 84 2,230 110 3,043 160 4,026 132 3,807 106 3,490 104 3,320 91 1,184 1,224 1,120 1,153 1,437 2,340 3,203 4,158 3,913 3,594 3,412 0 0 0 32 0 0 0 29 0 0 2 22 0 44 7 20 2 32 13 28 9 45 11 17 73 44 16 20 5 21 30 18 1 42 36 17 1 41 38 16 3 51 39 16 32 29 25 71 75 82 154 74 97 97 109 810 194 1,018 244 969 232 1,055 253 1,856 445 1,839 441 1,792 430 1,730 415 1,730 385 1,754 394 1,765 786 1,004 1,262 1,201 1,307 2,301 2,280 2,222 2,144 2,115 2,147 2,551 Total Liabilities ........................................................................ 2,220 2,516 2,346 2,531 3,813 4,702 5,579 6,376 6,125 5,837 6,071 Balance ..................................................................................... –263 –511 –316 –428 –1,273 –1,797 –2,861 –3,949 –3,726 –3,261 –3,423 Balance Per Capita (in 2001 dollars) ................................... –1,461 –2,635 –1,544 –1,983 –5,581 –7,527 –11,431 –14,802 –13,326 –11,527 –11,952 Ratio to GDP (in percent) ...................................................... –10.1 –15.6 –8.1 –9.6 –23.9 –28.4 –38.8 –47.6 –38.2 –32.1 –33.5 LIABILITIES Financial Liabilities: Debt held by the Public ....................................................... Trade Payables and Miscellaneous ..................................... Subtotal ........................................................................... Insurance Liabilities: Deposit Insurance ................................................................. Pension Benefit Guarantee 1 ................................................ Loan Guarantees .................................................................. Other Insurance .................................................................... Subtotal ........................................................................... Federal Pension and Retiree Health Liabilities Pension Liabilities ................................................................. Retiree Health Insurance Benefits ....................................... Total ................................................................................ Addenda:. * This table shows assets and liabilites for the Government as a whole excluding the Federal Reserve System. 1 The model and data used to calculate this liability were revised for 1996–1999. Assets Table 3–1 offers a comprehensive list of the financial and physical resources owned by the Federal Government. Financial Assets: According to the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow-of-Funds accounts, the Federal Government’s holdings of financial assets amounted to $0.5 trillion at the end of FY 2001. Government-held mortgages and other loans (measured in constant dollars) reached a peak in the late 1980s. Since then, the real value of Federal loans has declined. Holdings of mortgages rose sharply in the late 1980s and then declined in the 1990s, as the Government acquired mortgages from failed savings and loan institutions and then liquidated them. The face value of mortgages and other loans overstates their economic worth. OMB estimates that the discounted present value of future losses and interest subsidies on these loans is about $38 billion as of 2001. These estimated losses are subtracted from the face value of outstanding loans to obtain a better estimate of their economic worth. Reproducible Capital: The Federal Government is a major investor in physical capital and computer software. Government-owned stocks of such capital have amounted to about $1.0 trillion for most of the last 40 years (OMB estimate). This capital consists of defense equipment and structures, including weapons systems, as well as nondefense capital goods. Currently, slightly less than two-thirds of the capital is defense equipment or structures. In 1960, defense capital was 38 about 90 percent of the total. In the 1970s, there was a substantial decline in the real value of U.S. defense capital and there was another large decline in the 1990s after the end of the Cold War. Meanwhile, nondefense Federal capital has increased at an average annual rate of around 2–1/2 percent. Non-reproducible Capital: The Government owns significant amounts of land and mineral deposits. There are no official estimates of the market value of these holdings (and of course, in a realistic sense, much of these resources would never be sold). Researchers in the private sector have estimated what they are worth, however, and these estimates are extrapolated in Table 3–1. Private land values fell sharply in the early 1990s, but they have risen since 1993. It is assumed here that Federal land shared in the decline and the subsequent recovery. Oil prices have been on a roller coaster since the mid-1990s. First, they declined sharply in 1997–1998 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis, which reduced world petroleum demand. In 1999–2000, oil prices rebounded sharply, but in 2001 they fell again, although the average for the year remained higher than in FY 2000. The fluctuations caused the estimated value of Federal mineral deposits to fluctuate as well. (The estimates omit some valuable assets owned by the Government, such as works of art and historical artefacts, because the valuation for these assets would have little realistic basis, and because, as part of the Nation’s historical heritage, these objects would never be sold.) Total Assets: The total real value of Government assets is lower now than it was from 1981 through 1992, mainly because of declines in defense capital and inventories in the 1990s following the end of the Cold War. Government asset values have risen strongly since 1998, however, propelled by rising prices for land and energy, and because the decline in defense capital has moderated. Even with the decline in their estimated value since 1992, the Government’s asset holdings are vast. At the end of FY 2001, Government assets are estimated to be worth about $2.6 trillion. Liabilities Table 3–1 covers all those liabilities that would also appear on a business balance sheet, but only those liabilities. These include various forms of publicly held Federal debt, Federal pension and health insurance obligations to civilian and military retirees, and the estimated liability arising from Federal insurance and loan guarantee programs. Financial Liabilities: Financial liabilities amounted to about $3.4 trillion at the end of 2001, down from a peak value of $4.2 trillion in 1996. The single largest component of these liabilities was Federal debt held by the public, which amounted to around $3.3 trillion at the end of FY 2001. In addition to the debt held by the public, the Government owes about $0.1 trillion in miscellaneous liabilities. The publicly held debt has been declining for several years, because of the unified budget surplus. As the budget returns to deficit, this decline in public debt will end, but if the deficits remain ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES small, the ratio of debt and net financial liabilities to GDP could continue to shrink. Guarantees and Insurance Liabilities: The Federal Government has contingent liabilities arising from loan guarantees and insurance programs. When the Government guarantees a loan or offers insurance, cash disbursements may initially be small or, if a fee is charged, the Government may even collect money; but the risk of future cash payments associated with such commitments can be large. The figures reported in Table 3–1 are estimates of the current discounted value of prospective future losses on outstanding guarantees and insurance contracts. The present value of all such losses taken together is about $0.1 trillion. The resolution of the many failures in the savings and loan and banking industries has helped to reduce the liabilities in this category by about a third since 1990. Federal Pension and Retiree Health Liabilities: The Federal Government owes pension benefits as a form of deferred compensation to retired workers and to current employees who will eventually retire. It also provides its retirees with subsidized health insurance through the Federal Employees Health Benefits program. The amount of these liabilities is large, and there was a large increase in these liabilities in 2001. The discounted present value of the benefits is estimated to have been around $2.6 trillion at the end of FY 2001 up from $2.1 trillion in 2000.3 The main reason for the increase was a large expansion in Federal military retiree health benefits legislated in 2001. The Balance of Net Liabilities The Government need not maintain a positive balance of net assets to assure its fiscal solvency, and the buildup in net liabilities since 1960 did not significantly damage Federal creditworthiness. There are, however, limits to how much debt the Government can assume without putting its finances in jeopardy. By 1995, Federal net liabilities had reached 48 percent of GDP, and although this remained well below the limit that would have threatened Federal creditworthiness, the sharp upward trend in the ratio of liabilities to GDP, which by 1995 had continued for two decades, was ominous. Since then, however, there has been a major reduction in the ratio of Federal net liabilities to GDP. From 1995 through 2000, the net balance as a percentage of GDP fell for five straight years, and it would have fallen again in 2001 had there not been a substantial rise in estimated health insurance liabilities for Federal retirees last year. This was a one-time increase and is not expected to be repeated in future years. The ratio of net liabilities to GDP is down by 30 percent from its peak level, and the real value—adjusted for inflation—of net liabilities is $0.6 trillion (FY 2001 dol3 The pension liability is the actuarial present value of benefits accrued-to-date based on past and projected salaries. The 2001 liability is extrapolated from recent trends. The retiree health insurance liability is based on actuarial calculation of the present vale of benefits promised under existing programs. Actuarial estimates are only available since 1997. For earlier years the liability was assumed to grow in line with the pension liability, and for that reason may differ significantly from what the actuaries would have calculated for this period. 39 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET lars) lower than at its peak in FY 1996. The decline in net liabilities reflects the shift from budget deficits to surpluses, and a recent recovery in some Federal asset prices. As the budget returns to deficit, net liabil- ities are likely to increase again for a time, but if the deficits are relatively small and temporary, most of the improvement since 1996 ought to be maintained. Chart 3-2. Net Federal Liabilities Percent of GDP 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 PART II—THE BALANCE OF RESOURCES AND RESPONSIBILITIES This part of the presentation describes long-run projections of the Federal budget that extend beyond the normal budget horizon. Forecasting the economy and the budget so far into the future is highly uncertain. Indeed, accurate forecasting is not really possible over such a long time period. Future budget outcomes depend on a host of unknowns—constantly changing economic conditions, unforeseen international developments, unexpected demographic shifts, the unpredictable forces of technological advance, and evolving political preferences to name a few. The uncertainties increase the further into the future the projections extend. Given these uncertainties, the best that can be done is to work out the implications of expected developments on a ‘‘what if’’ basis by making explicit assumptions and using the analysis to work out their implications. Despite these limitations, long-run budget projections constructed under such assumptions can be useful in sounding warnings about potential problems. Federal responsibilities extend well beyond the next five or ten years, and problems that may be small in that time frame can become much larger if allowed time to grow. There is no time limit on the Government’s constitutional responsibilities, and programs like Social Security are intended to continue indefinitely. The Threat to the Budget from the Impending Demographic Transition: It is evident even now that there will be mounting challenges to the budget that could begin to emerge before the end of this decade. In 2008, the first of the huge baby-boom generation born after World War II will reach age 62 and become eligible for early retirement under Social Security. In the years that follow, the population over age 62 will skyrocket, putting serious strains on the budget because of increased expenditures for Social Security and for the Government’s health programs which serve the elderly—Medicare and increasingly Medicaid. Longrange projections can help define how serious these strains might become. The U.S. population has been aging for decades, but a major demographic shift is now just over the horizon. 40 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES The baby-boom cohort has moved into its prime earning years, while the much smaller cohort born during the Great Depression has been retiring. Together these shifts in the population have temporarily held down the rate of growth in the number of retirees relative to the labor force. The suppressed budgetary pressures are likely to burst forth once the baby-boomers begin to receive Social Security, and that will begin to happen starting in 2008. The pressures are expected to persist, however, even after the baby-boomers are gone. The Social Security actuaries project that the ratio of workers to Social Security beneficiaries will fall from around 3–1/2 currently to around 2 by the time most of the babyboomers are retired. Because of lower fertility and improved mortality that ratio is not expected to rise again, even though it is projected to decline very little following the passing of the baby-boomers. With fewer workers to pay taxes that support the retired population, the budgetary pressures on the Federal retirement programs will persist. The problem posed by the demographic transition is a permanent one. One way to see the extent of the budgetary problem is to examine the projected spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Currently, these programs account for 47 percent of non-interest Federal spending; up from 30 percent in 1980. By 2040, when most of the remaining baby-boomers will be in their 80s, these three programs could easily account for two thirds of non-interest Federal spending. At the end of the projection period, the figure rises to almost three-quarters of non-interest spending. In other words, under an extension of current budget policy, almost all of the budget would go to these three programs alone. That would considerably reduce the flexibility of the budget, and the Government’s ability to respond to new challenges. Measured relative to the size of the economy, the three major entitlement programs now amount to 8 percent of GDP.4 By 2040, this share almost doubles to 14 percent, and in 2075 it is projected to reach 18 percent of GDP. Current projections suggest, absent structural changes in the programs, that the Federal Government will have to find another 10 percent of GDP to cover future benefits in these programs. Chart 3-3. Entitlements' Claim on the Economy Percent of GDP 20 18.3 Medicaid 13.9 15 Medicaid Medicare 10 7.6 Medicare Medicaid 5 Medicare Social Security Social Security 2040 2075 Social Security 0 2001 The Shortfall in Social Security: Social Security is intended to be self-financing. Workers and employers pay taxes earmarked for the Social Security trust funds, and the Funds disburse benefits. In recent years, the 4 Over long periods when the rate of inflation is positive, comparisons of dollar values are meaningless. Even the low rate of inflation assumed in this budget will reduce the value of a 2001 dollar by about half by 2030, and by two thirds by 2050. For long-run comparison, it is much more useful to examine the ratio of budget totals to the expected size of the economy as measured by GDP. 41 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET Funds have been increasing in size as a result of a large Social Security surplus. At the end of FY 2001, the combined Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust funds had reached almost $1.2 trillion. Under current law, the demographic transition is projected to reverse this buildup of the trust funds. The program’s actuaries project that by 2016, taxes flowing into the Funds will fall short of program benefits and expenses.5 The Funds are projected to continue to grow for some years beyond this point because of positive interest income, but by 2025, the trust funds will peak and begin to be drawn down. By 2038, when even the youngest baby-boomers will be in their late 70s, the actuaries project that the OASDI trust funds will be exhausted. That would not mean that Social Security benefits would cease, because projected taxes would still be large enough to cover over 70 percent of projected benefits at that point, but the program could no longer sustain promised benefits out of earmarked tax receipts and trust fund interest alone (see accompanying box for a fuller discussion). Social Security: The Long-Range Challenge For 66 years, Social Security has provided retirement security and disability insurance for tens of millions of Americans through a self-financing system. The principle of self-financing is important because it compels corrections to the system in the event of projected financial imbalances. While Social Security is running surpluses today, OMB projects it will begin running cash deficits within 20 years. Social Security’s spending path is unsustainable if the demographic trends toward lower fertility rates and longer life spans continue. These trends imply that the number of workers available to support each retiree will decline from 3.4 today to an estimated 2.1 in 2030, and that the Government will not be able to meet current-law benefit obligations at current payroll tax rates The future size of Social Security’s shortfall cannot be known with any precision. Under the Social Security Trustees’ 2001 intermediate-cost economic and demographic assumptions, the gap between Social Security receipts and outlays in 2040 is projected to be 1.7 percent of GDP. Under their high-cost assumptions, the shortfall in that year would be 76 percent larger, or 3.0 percent of GDP. The program’s actuarial deficit, which indicates how much the payroll tax rate or benefits as a share of payroll would have to change today to maintain a positive balance in the Trust Funds over the next 75 years, was estimated to be –1.9 percent in the latest Trustees’ report. Long-range uncertainty underscores the importance of creating a system that is financially stable and self-contained. Otherwise, if the pessimistic assumptions turn out to be more accurate, the demands created by Social Security could compromise the rest of the budget and the Nation’s economic health. Moreover, the current structure of Social Security leads to substantial generational inequities in the average rate of return people can expect from the program. While previous generations fared well, individuals born today on average can expect to receive less than a two percent average annual real rate of return on their payroll tax contributions. Indeed, such estimates overstate the expected rate of return, because they assume no changes in current-law taxes or benefits even though meeting the projected financing shortfall through benefit cuts or additional revenues would further reduce Social Security’s implicit rate of return for future cohorts. A 1995 analysis found that the average worker in the cohort born in 2000 would experience a 1.7 percent rate of return before accounting for Social Security’s shortfall, and a 1.5 percent rate of return after adjusting revenues to keep the system solvent. One way to address the issues of uncertainty and declining rates of return, while protecting national savings, would be to allow individuals to invest some of the payroll taxes they currently pay in personal retirement accounts. The President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security has recently reported on various options that would incorporate personal accounts as part of the Social Security framework. The budget discusses in more detail the Commission’s findings and the options it has presented for discussion. 5 The long-ranged projections discussed in this chapter are based on an extension of the Administration’s economic projections from the budget, which differ somewhat from the economic assumptions used by the actuaries. Under the extended Administration projec- tions this point would be reached a few years later and the other key dates highlighted in the Trustee’s annual reports would also come somewhat later. 42 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Medicare: The Long-Range Challenge According to the Medicare Trustees most recent report issued last March, Medicare spending for the Hospital Insurance (HI) program is projected to exceed taxes going into the HI trust fund beginning in 2016, and the fund is projected to go bankrupt in 2029. Another way of measuring the expected HI shortfall is by the size of the HI trust fund’s actuarial deficit, defined as the tax rate increase that would be required today to preserve a positive balance in the HI trust fund over the next 75 years. In their March 2001 report, the Trustees projected an actuarial deficit of –2.0 percent, a two thirds increase over the 2000 estimate of the deficit ,which was –1.2 percent (see Table 3–3). The large adjustment in the actuarial deficit was mainly due to the Trustees’ acknowledgment that the growth rate of per capita HI expenditures is likely to be faster in the long run than had previously been assumed. The new assumption is that per capita HI spending will outpace the rate of growth in per capita GDP by a full percentage point. Although that marks a substantial increase in the projected growth rate compared with previous Trustees’ reports, the difference would still be less than it has averaged over the last 20 years. But, Medicare also has a second trust fund for Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI), and the growth in per beneficiary SMI expenditures is also projected to exceed the growth rate of per capita GDP by a full percentage point in the latest Trustees’ report. A comprehensive analysis of Medicare that takes account of both HI and SMI would show that Medicare already runs a deficit with the rest of the budget, not a surplus. Premiums paid by SMI beneficiaries fall short of total SMI spending, and the difference exceeds the current HI surplus. In fact, over the ten years 2003–2012, Medicare will require transfers from general revenue totaling $1.3 trillion. The main reason for the projected shortfall in the Medicare Trust Funds is that the long-range projections of total Medicare spending show substantial growth. This is partly for demographic reasons. Beginning within ten years, the number of Medicare beneficiaries is expected to rise very rapidly, as the baby-boomers reach age 65 and become eligible for Medicare. Between 2010 and 2030, the number of persons age 65 and older is expected to rise from under 40 million to nearly 70 million. Meanwhile, as explained above, per capita spending is also expected to continue rising rapidly. Together these factors push up total spending very sharply, as a percentage of GDP, Medicare outlays are projected to quadruple increasing from around 2 percent in 2001 to over 8 percent by 2075. This is the fastest projected growth of any of the major entitlements, faster than both Social Security and Medicaid. The Administration remains committed to working with Congress to reform Medicare in a manner that improves the long-run solvency of the entire program without raising Medicare payroll taxes. And in Medicare: Medicare faces a similar problem. Income to Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund is projected to exceed outgo until 2016, but thereafter the HI fund is projected to be depleted, and to reach zero in 2029, nine years earlier than the OASDI trust funds. Unlike Social Security, Medicare has never been completely self-financed. In addition to the HI program, Medicare also consists of Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI), which covers medical bills outside of the hospital. SMI is funded by a combination of premiums charged to the beneficiaries, which cover about one-quarter of benefits, and general revenue. Even if the HI trust fund were to remain solvent indefinitely, Medicare as a whole would continue to be subsidized by the rest of the budget, and as Medicare costs rise in the future, the subsidy will increase (see accompanying box for a fuller discussion). An Uncertain Long-Range Outlook.—At the beginning of the 1990s, when these long-run budget projections were first developed, the deficit was on an unstable trajectory. Given then-current economic projections and policies, the deficit was projected to mount steadily not only in dollar terms, but relative to the size of the economy. This pattern of rising deficits would have driven Federal debt held by the public to unsustainable levels. Policy actions during the 1990s reduced the deficits, and the strong economy that emerged in the second half of the 1990s did even more to eliminate them. Because of the recent economic downturn and needed spending for defense and homeland security, the unified budget is now projected to return to deficit for a few years. The deficits are not large relative to the size of the overall economy, and if budget discipline is maintained while the economy recovers as expected, surpluses will return thereafter. Furthermore, if the policies and assumptions used for this budget are extended, the unified budget could continue in surplus into the next decade or even later. Eventually, however, the rising burden of entitlement spending will cause deficits to reappear unless there are structural reforms in the major entitlement programs. How long before these deficits are projected to show up again depends on economic and technical factors and policy decisions affecting the rest of the budget. Future stress on the budget appears to be unavoidable absent major reforms to the entitlement programs. There is a wide range of uncertainty around any such long-range projections. As discussed further below, the projections are affected by many hard-to-foresee eco- 43 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET nomic and demographic factors, as well as by future policy decisions. In the ten years since OMB first began to experiment with such projections, the long-run outlook has varied considerably. Chart 3-4. The Wide Range of Projected Federal Deficits and Surpluses Surplus(+)/deficit(-) percent of GDP 6 All projections assume discretionary spending increases with GDP. 4 2 2002 Budget 0 2000 Budget -2 2003 Budget 2001 Budget -4 1998 Budget -6 1996 Budget 1980 1990 2000 2010 Economic and Demographic Assumptions.—Even though any such forecast is highly uncertain, long-run budget projections require starting with specific economic and demographic projections. The assumptions used as a starting point extend the Administration’s medium-term economic projections used in preparing this budget augmented by the long-run demographic projections from the 2001 Social Security Trustees’ Report. • Inflation, unemployment and interest rates hold stable at 2.3 percent per year for CPI inflation, 4.9 percent for the unemployment rate, and 5.3 percent for the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. • Productivity growth as measured by real GDP per hour continues at the same constant rate as in the Administration’s medium-term projections— 2.1 percent per year. (See chapter 2 for more detail on the Administration’s economic assumptions). • In line with the current projections of the Social Security Trustees, U.S. population growth is expected to slow from over 1 percent per year in the 1990s to about half that rate by 2030, and even less in the decades after 2030. 2020 2030 2040 2050 • The labor force participation rate declines as the population ages and the proportion of retirees in the population is projected to increase. • Real GDP growth declines gradually after 2011 from 3.1 percent per year to an average annual rate of 2.4 percent, reflecting the effects of the projected slowdown in labor force growth combined with the assumed constant rate of productivity growth. The economic projections described above are set by assumption and do not automatically change in response to changes in the budget outlook. This is unrealistic, but it simplifies comparisons of alternative policies. Alternative Budget Projections.—These long-run projections generally assume that mandatory spending proceeds according to current law and that the policy proposals in the budget are adopted without assuming any other new programs or enhancements to existing programs. For the reasons discussed above, these assumptions imply that the major entitlement programs are projected to absorb an increasing share of budget resources. This is true under all likely assumptions re- 44 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES garding future discretionary spending. Chart 3–5 shows budget projections under the two main alternative assumptions that OMB has used in projecting discretionary spending: one holds discretionary spending constant in real dollars allowing it to increase only with the rate of inflation while the other holds discretionary spending constant in relation to GDP, which means it expands at the same rate over time as GDP is projected to grow. • Social Security benefits, driven by the retirement of the baby-boom generation, rise from 4.2 percent of GDP in 2001 to 6.4 percent in 2040. They continue to rise after that but more gradually, eventually reaching 6.9 percent of GDP by 2075.6 • Medicare outlays expand quite rapidly, rising from 2.1 percent of GDP in 2001 to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2040, and 7.7 percent by 2075. • Federal Medicaid spending goes up from 1.3 percent of GDP in 2001 to 2.7 percent in 2040 and to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2075. • Holding discretionary spending constant in real dollars implies that it declines relative to GDP from 6.5 percent in 2001 to 3.7 percent in 2040, and to 2.1 percent in 2075. Alternatively, if discretionary spending is fixed as a share of GDP at the level reached in 2012, it maintains a constant 5.8 percent share of GDP through 2075. Chart 3-5. Long-Run Budget Projections Surplus(+)/deficit(-) as a percent GDP 5 Discretionary Grows with Inflation 0 -5 Discretionary Grows with GDP -10 -15 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 6 These benefit estimates reflect the economic assumptions described above, which differ somewhat from the assumptions in the Social Security Trustees’ Report. The benefit estimates were prepared by the Social Security actuaries using OMB economic assumptions. 45 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET Table 3–2. LONG-RUN BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF 2003 BUDGET POLICY (Percent of GDP) 2000 Discretionary Grows with GDP Receipts ......................................................................... Outlays ......................................................................... Discretionary ............................................................ Mandatory ................................................................ Social Security ..................................................... Medicare .............................................................. Medicaid .............................................................. Other .................................................................... Net Interest .............................................................. Surplus or Deficit (-) .................................................... Primary Surplus or Deficit (-) ...................................... Federal Debt Held by the Public ................................. Discretionary Spending Grows with Inflation Receipts ........................................................................ Outlays ......................................................................... Discretionary ............................................................ Mandatory ................................................................ Social Security ..................................................... Medicare .............................................................. Medicaid .............................................................. Other .................................................................... Net Interest .............................................................. Surplus or Deficit (-) .................................................... Primary Surplus or Deficit (-) ...................................... Federal Debt Held by the Public ................................. 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2075 20.8 18.4 6.3 9.8 4.2 2.0 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 4.7 35.0 19.2 18.7 6.9 10.3 4.2 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.5 2.1 29.2 19.2 18.0 6.2 10.7 4.4 2.3 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.2 2.2 19.1 19.2 18.4 5.8 12.5 5.4 2.9 2.2 2.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 2.9 19.4 20.4 5.8 14.4 6.3 3.9 2.4 1.8 0.2 –1.1 –0.9 4.4 19.4 22.3 5.8 15.6 6.4 4.8 2.7 1.7 0.9 –2.9 –2.0 20.9 19.6 24.3 5.8 16.5 6.4 5.5 3.0 1.6 2.0 –4.8 –2.8 46.5 19.6 32.7 5.8 19.8 6.9 7.7 3.6 1.5 7.1 –13.2 –6.1 165.2 20.8 18.4 6.3 9.8 4.2 2.0 1.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 4.7 35.0 19.2 18.7 6.9 10.3 4.2 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.6 0.5 2.1 29.2 19.2 18.0 6.2 10.7 4.4 2.3 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.2 2.2 19.1 19.2 17.6 5.1 12.5 5.4 2.9 2.2 2.0 0.0 1.7 1.7 –0.5 19.4 18.3 4.3 14.5 6.3 3.9 2.4 1.8 –0.5 1.1 0.6 –10.9 19.4 18.7 3.7 15.6 6.4 4.8 2.7 1.7 –0.6 0.8 0.2 –13.9 19.6 19.0 3.1 16.5 6.4 5.5 3.0 1.7 –0.6 0.5 –0.1 –14.6 19.6 22.5 2.1 19.9 6.9 7.7 3.6 1.6 0.5 –2.9 –2.4 12.8 The Effects of Alternative Economic and Technical Assumptions. The results discussed above are sensitive to changes in underlying economic and technical assumptions. Some of the most important of these alternative economic and technical assumptions and their effects on the budget outlook are discussed below. Each highlights one of the key uncertainties in the outlook. 1. Health Spending: The long-range projections for Medicare follow the latest projections of the Medicare actuaries from the 2001 Medicare Trustees’ Report. For many years, the Trustees’ projections included a longrun slowdown in the rate of growth of real per capita Medicare spending. Recently, the Technical Review Panel on the Medicare Trustees’ Reports recommended raising the long-run projected growth rate in real per capita Medicare costs, so that ‘‘age-and gender-adjusted, per-beneficiary spending growth exceeds the growth of per-capita GDP by 1 percentage point per year.’’ 7 This assumption was adopted in the 2001 Medicare Trustees’ Reports, and in Chart 3–5, real per capita Medicare benefits are assumed to rise at this rate. The effect of this change in assumptions on the Medicare HI trust fund’s actuarial deficiency is shown in Table 3–3. Eventually, the rising trend in health care costs for both Government and the private sector will have to end, but it is hard to know when and how that will happen. ‘‘Eventually’’ could be a long way off. Improved health and increased longevity are highly valued, and society may be willing to spend a larger share of income on them than it has heretofore. There are many reason7 Technical Review Panel on the Medical Trustees’ Reports, ‘‘Review of Assumptions and Methods of the Medicare Trustees’ Financial Projections,’’ December 2000. able alternative health cost and usage projections, as well as variations in the demographic projections to which they can be applied. Innovations in health care are proceeding rapidly, and they have diverse effects on the projection of costs. Likewise, the effects of greater longevity on Medicare and especially Medicaid costs are uncertain. 2. Discretionary Spending: The assumption used to project discretionary spending is essentially arbitrary, because discretionary spending is determined annually through the legislative process, and no formula can dictate future spending in the absence of legislation. Alternative assumptions have been made for discretionary spending. Holding discretionary spending unchanged in real terms is the ‘‘current services’’ assumption often used for budget projections when there is no legislative guidance on future spending levels. Alternatively, if discretionary spending is assumed to keep pace with the growth in GDP, spending increases in real terms whenever there is positive real economic growth. Under the assumption that future spending expands with the size of the economy, these long-run budget projections show clearly that the budget is on an unsustainable path, although the shortfall unfolds only gradually. For most of the next two decades, the budget is projected to be in surplus, between 0 and 1-1/2 percent of GDP. In the following decade, the budget returns to deficit, and in the decade 2030–2039, the deficit begins to rise sharply. This is the time span within which the actuaries are now projecting that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted. Timely action now could resolve these problems, without disrupting the retirement plans of future generations of workers. 46 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES 3. Productivity: The future rate of productivity growth is perhaps the most powerful of the assumptions affecting the long-run budget outlook, and it is especially uncertain. Productivity in the U.S. economy slowed markedly and unexpectedly after 1973. This slowdown was responsible for a slower rise in U.S. real incomes for the next two decades which had many profound consequences for society. This slowdown in income growth also contributed to worsening Federal budget outcomes that followed 1973. In the latter half of the 1990s, however, productivity growth increased, unexpectedly again, although reasons for the revival are clear in hindsight. Since the end of 1995, labor productivity in the economy’s nonfarm business sector has grown at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, a full percentage point faster than the growth rate from 1973 through 1995, although the latest data, which were revised last summer, show that the trend growth rate remains about half a percentage point slower than from 1948 though 1973. So, productivity growth has rebounded, but it has not completely recovered from the post-1973 slowdown. On the other hand, while the latest downturn in the economy has cut into productivity growth, the underlying trend remains strong, which means there is reason to hope the improvement in productivity marks a permanent change. The revival of productivity growth is one of the most welcome developments of the last several years. From a budgetary standpoint, a higher rate of economic growth makes the task of reaching a balanced budget much easier, while a lower productivity growth rate has the opposite effect. Although the long-run growth rate of productivity is inherently uncertain, it has averaged around 2 percent per year since 1947. In these extended projections, real GDP per hour is assumed to grow at 2.1 percent per year. 4. Population: The key assumptions underlying the long-run demographic projections concern fertility, immigration, and mortality. • The demographic projections assume that fertility will average around 1.9 births per woman in the future, slightly below the replacement rate needed to maintain a constant population. • The rate of immigration is assumed to average around 900,000 per year in these projections. Higher immigration relieves some of the pressure on population from low fertility and means that total population continues to expand throughout the projection period, although at a slower rate than historically. • Mortality is projected to decline. The average female lifespan is projected to rise from 79.6 years to 85.0 years by 2075, and the average male lifespan is projected to increase from 74.0 years in 2001 to 80.9 years by 2075, and the gap between men’s and women’s expected lifespans narrows somewhat. A technical panel to the Social Security Trustees recently reported that the improvement in longevity might even be greater than this. If so, the projected growth of the three big entitlement programs would be even faster. Conclusion.—Since the early 1990s, the long-run budget outlook has improved significantly, but it remains highly uncertain. Currently, there is an extended period of budget surpluses under most projection assumptions, but how big the surpluses will be and how long they will last remain quite uncertain. Furthermore, these surpluses eventually end under most assumptions. With pessimistic assumptions, the fiscal picture deteriorates relatively soon. More optimistic assumptions imply a longer period before the inexorable pressures of rising entitlement spending overwhelm the budget. Fundamental reforms are needed to preserve the basic promises embodied in Social Security and Medicare. Meanwhile, the wide range of possible outcomes highlights the sensitivity of these long-term projections to specific assumptions and cautions against undue reliance on any particular projection path. While actual experience with these projections is too short to have provided a meaningful track record to judge their accuracy, the shifts from one budget to the next in the featured projection path offer one indication of the wide range of variation in reasonable outcomes (see chart 3–4). Actuarial Balance in the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds: The Trustees for the Social Security and Hospital Insurance trust funds issue annual reports that include projections of income and outgo for these funds over a 75-year period. These projections are based on different methods and assumptions than the long-run budget projections presented above, although the budget projections do rely on the Social Security assumptions for population growth and labor force growth after the year 2012. Despite these differences, the message is similar: The retirement of the baby-boom generation coupled with expected high rates of growth in per capita health care costs will exhaust the trust funds unless further remedial action is taken. The Trustees’ reports feature the 75-year actuarial balance of the trust funds as a summary measure of their financial status. For each trust fund, the balance is calculated as the change in receipts or program benefits (expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll) that would be needed to preserve a small positive balance in the trust fund at the end of 75 years. Table 3–3 shows the changes in the 75-year actuarial balances of the Social Security and Medicare HI trust funds from 2000 to 2001. There was virtually no change in the consolidated OASDI trust fund’s projected deficiency. It narrowed slightly from –1.89 percent of payroll to 47 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET –1.86 percent. There was a large change in the actuarial balance of the HI trust fund. The changes were due to revisions in the actuarial assumptions and to the annual shift in the valuation period, which arises because with the passage of time one more year of projected deficits has moved into the 75-year window. In the case of the OASDI funds, a small improvement in the economic assumptions was offset by the shift in the valuation period. For the HI program, the Trustees adopted the recommendation of their technical panel and increased the growth rate projected for the program’s real per capita benefits. This change in assumptions brings projected future growth more in line with past patterns of growth, but if the new assumption is realized it will seriously undermine the program’s long-term financial status. Table 3–3. CHANGE IN 75-YEAR ACTUARIAL BALANCE FOR OASDI AND HI TRUST FUNDS (INTERMEDIATE ASSUMPTIONS) (As percent of taxable payroll) OASI DI OASDI HI Actuarial balance in 2000 Trustees’ Report ................. Changes in balance due to changes in:. Legislation .................................................................... Valuation period ........................................................... Economic and demographic assumptions ................... Technical and other assumptions ............................... –1.53 –0.37 –1.89 –1.21 0.00 –0.06 0.10 –0.04 0.00 –0.01 0.01 0.04 0.00 –0.07 0.11 0.00 –0.03 –0.04 0.08 –0.77 Total Changes ......................................................... Actuarial balance in 2001 Trustees’ Report ................. –0.01 –1.53 0.04 –0.33 0.03 –1.86 –0.76 –1.97 PART III—NATIONAL WEALTH AND WELFARE Unlike a private corporation, the Federal Government routinely invests in ways that do not add directly to its assets. For example, Federal grants are frequently used to fund capital projects by State or local governments for highways and other purposes. Such investments are valuable to the public, which pays for them with its taxes, but they are not owned by the Federal Government and would not show up on a conventional balance sheet for the Federal Government. It is true, of course, that by encouraging economic growth in the private sector, the Government augments future Federal tax receipts; when the private economy expands, the Government collects more taxes. However, if the investments funded, but not owned by the Federal Government, earn a conventional economic rate of return, the fraction of that return that comes back to the Government in higher taxes is far less than what a private investor would require before undertaking a similar investment. The Federal Government also invests in education and research and development (R&D). These outlays contribute to future productivity and are analogous to an investment in physical capital. Indeed, economists have computed stocks of human and knowledge capital to reflect the accumulation of such investments. None- theless, such hypothetical capital stocks are obviously not owned by the Federal Government, nor would they appear on a typical balance sheet as a Government asset, even though these investments may contribute to future tax receipts. To show the importance of these kinds of issues, Table 3–4 presents a national balance sheet. It includes estimates of national wealth classified into three categories: physical assets, education capital, and R&D capital. The Federal Government has made contributions to each of these categories of capital, and these contributions are shown separately in the table. Data in this table are especially uncertain, because of the strong assumptions needed to prepare the estimates. The conclusion of the table is that Federal investments are responsible for about 7 percent of total national wealth. This may seem like a small fraction, but it represents a large volume of capital more than $5 trillion. The Federal contribution is down from around 9 percent in the mid-1980s, and from around 11 percent in 1960. Much of this reflects the shrinking size of defense capital stocks, which have declined from around 12 percent of GDP to 7 percent since the end of the Cold War. 48 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 3–4. NATIONAL WEALTH (As of the end of the fiscal year, in trillions of 2001 dollars) 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.7 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.7 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.3 1.5 0.6 3.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.0 0.8 3.6 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.2 1.3 3.9 1.7 1.0 0.7 2.1 1.4 4.2 1.8 1.1 0.8 2.4 1.1 4.7 2.0 1.1 0.8 2.7 0.8 5.1 2.0 1.0 0.9 3.2 0.9 5.3 1.9 1.0 1.0 3.3 1.1 5.2 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.2 1.2 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.4 7.0 2.7 2.8 0.6 0.9 2.0 8.1 3.2 3.2 0.7 1.0 2.4 9.9 3.7 4.0 0.8 1.3 2.8 12.6 4.8 5.3 1.1 1.5 3.7 16.4 6.6 6.8 1.3 1.7 5.6 17.3 6.8 7.4 1.2 1.9 6.4 19.6 7.7 8.3 1.3 2.3 6.5 21.4 8.6 9.0 1.4 2.4 4.9 24.6 10.1 10.3 1.5 2.7 6.6 25.6 10.5 10.8 1.5 2.8 7.4 26.4 11.0 11.1 1.4 2.9 7.8 9.1 10.5 12.7 16.3 22.0 23.7 26.1 26.2 31.1 33.0 34.3 0.1 6.1 0.1 7.8 0.2 10.6 0.3 13.1 0.5 17.1 0.6 20.4 0.8 26.3 0.9 29.0 1.1 35.1 1.1 36.6 1.2 37.9 ASSETS Publicly Owned Physical Assets: Structures and Equipment ............................................................................................................................ Federally Owned or Financed ................................................................................................................ Federally Owned ................................................................................................................................. Grants to State & Local Govt’s .......................................................................................................... Funded by State & Local Govt’s ............................................................................................................ Other Federal Assets .................................................................................................................................. Subtotal .................................................................................................................................................... Privately Owned Physical Assets: Reproducible Assets .................................................................................................................................... Residential Structures ............................................................................................................................. Nonresidential Plant & Equipment .......................................................................................................... Inventories ............................................................................................................................................... Consumer Durables ................................................................................................................................ Land ............................................................................................................................................................. Subtotal .................................................................................................................................................... Education Capital: Federally Financed ...................................................................................................................................... Financed from Other Sources ..................................................................................................................... Subtotal .................................................................................................................................................... Research and Development Capital: Federally Financed R&D: ............................................................................................................................ R&D Financed from Other Sources ........................................................................................................... 6.2 7.9 10.8 13.4 17.5 21.0 27.1 29.8 36.2 37.7 39.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.4 Subtotal .................................................................................................................................................... 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.5 2.4 Total Assets ..................................................................................................................................................... Net Claims of Foreigners on U.S. (+) .............................................................................................................. Net Wealth ........................................................................................................................................................ 18.3 –0.1 18.4 21.9 –0.2 22.1 27.8 –0.2 27.9 34.9 –0.1 35.0 45.5 –0.4 45.8 51.3 0.0 51.2 60.2 0.8 59.4 63.6 1.5 62.0 75.7 3.5 72.2 79.5 3.5 76.0 82.1 3.5 78.6 ADDENDA:. Per Capita Wealth (thousands of dollars) ...................................................................................................... Ratio of Wealth to GDP (in percent) .............................................................................................................. Total Federally Funded Capital (trillions 2001 $) ........................................................................................... Percent of National Wealth ............................................................................................................................. 101.9 703.3 2.1 11.4 114.0 715.3 2.4 10.7 136.4 695.0 2.7 9.8 162.4 695.6 3.2 9.1 200.9 678.8 3.7 8.1 214.5 673.6 4.3 8.5 237.1 662.6 4.5 7.6 232.5 682.8 4.5 7.3 258.3 677.3 4.9 6.8 268.6 689.1 5.1 6.8 274.6 711.2 5.3 6.7 Physical Assets: The physical assets in the table include stocks of plant and equipment, office buildings, residential structures, land, and the Government’s physical assets such as military hardware and highways. Automobiles and consumer appliances are also included in this category. The total amount of such capital is vast, around $41 trillion in 2001, consisting of $34 trillion in private physical capital and $6 trillion in public physical capital; by comparison, GDP was about 10 trillion in 2001. The Federal Government’s contribution to this stock of capital includes its own physical assets plus $1.1 trillion in accumulated grants to State and local Governments for capital projects. The Federal Government has financed about one-fourth of the physical capital held by other levels of Government. Education Capital: Economists have developed the concept of human capital to reflect the notion that individuals and society invest in people as well as in physical assets. Investment in education is a good example of how human capital is accumulated. This table includes an estimate of the stock of capital represented by the Nation’s investment in formal edu- cation and training. The estimate is based on the cost of replacing the years of schooling embodied in the U.S. population aged 16 and over; in other words, the idea is to measure how much it would cost to reeducate the U.S. workforce at today’s prices (rather than at its original cost). This is more meaningful economically than the historical cost, and is comparable to the measures of physical capital presented earlier. Although this is a relatively crude measure, it does provide a rough order of magnitude for the current value of the investment in education. According to this measure, the stock of education capital amounted to $39 trillion in 2001, of which about 3 percent was financed by the Federal Government. It is nearly equal to the total value of the Nation’s stock of physical capital. The main investors in education capital have been State and local governments, parents, and students themselves (who forgo earning opportunities in order to acquire education). Even broader concepts of human capital have been proposed. Not all useful training occurs in a schoolroom or in formal training programs at work. Much informal learning occurs within families or on the job, but measuring its value is very difficult. However, labor compensation amounts to about two-thirds of national in- 49 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET come, and thinking of this income as the product of human capital suggests that the total value of human capital might be two times the estimated value of physical capital. Thus, the estimates offered here are in a sense conservative, because they reflect only the costs of acquiring formal education and training, which is why they are referred to as education capital rather than human capital. They are that part of human capital that can be attributed to formal education and training. Research and Development Capital: Research and Development can also be thought of as an investment, because R&D represents a current expenditure that is made in the expectation of earning a future return. After adjusting for depreciation, the flow of R&D investment can be added up to provide an estimate of the current R&D stock.8 That stock is estimated to have been about $2–1/2 trillion in 2001. Although this represents a large amount of research, it is a relatively small portion of total National wealth. Of this stock, about 40 percent was funded by the Federal Government. Liabilities: When considering how much the United States owes as a Nation, the debts that Americans owe to one another cancel out. In most cases, the debts of one American are the assets of another American, so in these cases, the debts are not included in Table 3–4 because they are not a net liability of Americans as a Nation. Table 3–4 is intended to show National totals only, but that does not mean that the level of debt is unimportant. The amount of debt owed by Americans to other Americans can exert both positive and negative effects on the economy. American’s willingness to borrow helped fuel the expansion of the 1990s, but the debts accumulated in this process must be serviced, which could lead to curtailed spending at some future point. Moreover, bad debts, which are not collectible, can cause serious problems for the banking system. While the banking system appears to be financially sound, such uncollectible debts were a serious problem hampering the opening stages of the last economic expansion in 1991–1992. Despite these considerations, the only debts that appear in Table 3–4 are the debts Americans owe to foreign investors. America’s foreign debt has been increasing rapidly in recent years, because of the rising deficit in the U.S. current account. Although the current account deficit has been at record levels recently, the size of this debt remains small compared with the total stock of U.S. assets. It amounted to 3–1/2 percent of total assets in 2001. Federal debt does not appear explicitly in Table 3–4 because much of it is held by Americans; only that portion of the Federal debt held by foreigners is included with other debt to foreigners. Comparing the Federal Government’s net liabilities with total national 8 R&D depreciates in the sense that the economic value of applied research and development tends to decline with the passage of time, as still newer ideas move the technological frontier. wealth does, however, provide another indication of the relative magnitude of the imbalance in the Government’s accounts. Currently, Federal net liabilities, as reported in Table 3–1, amount to about 4 percent of net U.S. wealth as shown in Table 3–4. Trends in National Wealth The net stock of wealth in the United States at the end of FY 2001 was about $78–1/2 trillion, almost eight times the level of GDP. Since 1981, it has increased in real terms at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent per year—two percentage points less rapidly than it grew from 1961 to 1981—4.7 percent per year. Public physical capital formation growth slowed even more. Since 1981, public physical capital has increased at an annual rate of only 1.0 percent, compared with 3.3 percent over the previous 20 years. The net stock of private nonresidential plant and equipment grew 2.3 percent per year from 1981 to 2001, compared with 4.6 percent in the 1960s and 1970s; and the stock of business inventories increased even less, just 0.4 percent per year on average since 1981. However, private nonresidential fixed capital has increased much more rapidly since 1995—3.8 percent per year—reflecting the investment boom in the latter half of the 1990s. The accumulation of education capital, as measured here, has also slowed down since 1981, but not as much. It grew at an average rate of 5.3 percent per year in the 1960s and 1970s, about 0.9 percentage point faster than the average rate of growth in private physical capital during the same period. Since 1981, education capital has grown at a 3.9 percent annual rate. This reflects both the extra resources devoted to schooling in this period, and the fact that such resources were increasing in economic value. R&D stocks have also grown at about 3.9 percent per year since 1981. Other Federal Influences on Economic Growth Federal investment decisions, as reflected in Table 3–4, obviously are important, but the Federal Government also contributes to wealth in ways that cannot be easily captured in a formal presentation. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy affects the rate and direction of capital formation in the short run, and Federal regulatory and tax policies also affect how capital is invested, as do the Federal Government’s policies on credit assistance and insurance. Social Indicators There are certain broad responsibilities that are unique to the Federal Government. Especially important are fostering healthy economic conditions including sound economic growth, promoting health and social welfare, and protecting the environment. Table 3–5 offers a rough cut of information that can be useful in assessing how well the Federal Government has been doing in promoting these general objectives. The indicators shown here are a limited subset drawn from the vast array of available data on conditions in 50 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 3–5. General categories Economic: Living Standards ........... Economic Security ........ Employment .................. Wealth Creation ............... Innovation ..................... Environment:. Air Quality ..................... Water Quality ................ Social: Families ......................... ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS Specific measures Real GDP per person (1996 dollars) ................................. average annual percent change (5-year trend) ................. Median Income (2000 dollars): All Households ............................................................... Married Couple Families ................................................ Female Householder, Husband Absent ......................... Income Share of Lower 60% of All Families ................ Poverty Rate (%) (a) ...................................................... Civilian Unemployment (%) ................................................ CPI-U (% Change) ............................................................. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2000 2001 $13,145 0.7 $15,587 3.5 $17,445 2.3 $18,909 1.6 $21,523 2.6 $23,971 2.2 $26,832 2.3 $28,318 1.1 $31,732 2.6 $32,651 2.9 $32,572 2.4 N/A $29,111 $14,712 34.8 22.2 5.5 1.7 N/A $33,881 $16,472 35.2 17.3 4.5 1.6 $33,746 $40,631 $19,678 35.2 12.6 4.9 5.8 $33,489 $42,193 $19,423 35.2 12.3 8.5 9.1 $35,238 $46,045 $20,709 34.5 13.0 7.1 13.5 $36,246 $47,728 $20,964 32.7 14.0 7.2 3.5 $38,446 $51,224 $21,740 32.0 13.5 5.5 5.4 $38,262 $52,843 $22,110 30.3 13.8 5.6 2.8 $42,187 $58,580 $24,529 29.8 11.8 4.2 2.1 $42,148 $59,187 $25,787 29.6 11.3 4.0 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.8 2.9 Increase in Total Payroll Employment Previous 12 Months. Managerial or Professional Jobs (% of civilian employment) ............................................................................... Net National Saving Rate (% of GDP) .............................. –0.5 2.9 –0.5 0.4 0.2 2.5 0.3 2.2 3.1 2.0 –1.1 N/A 10.2 N/A 12.1 N/A 8.2 N/A 6.6 N/A 7.5 24.1 6.1 25.8 4.6 28.3 4.7 30.3 6.0 30.2 5.6 31.0 4.0 Patents Issued to U.S. Residents (thousands) ................. Multifactor Productivity (average annual percent change) 42.3 0.8 54.1 2.8 50.6 0.8 51.5 1.1 41.7 0.8 45.1 0.6 56.1 0.5 68.2 0.6 99.5 1.0 103.6 N/A N/A N/A Nitrogen Oxide Emissions (thousand short tons) .............. Sulfur Dioxide Emissions (thousand short tons) ............... Lead Emissions (thousand short tons) .............................. 14,140 22,227 N/A 16,579 26,750 N/A 20,928 31,161 221 22,632 28,011 160 24,384 25,905 74 23,198 23,658 23 24,170 23,678 4 25,051 19,188 4 25,393 18,867 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Population Served by Secondary Treatment or Better (mils) ............................................................................... N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 134 155 166 N/A N/A N/A Children Living with Mother Only (% of all children) ........ 9.2 10.2 11.6 16.4 18.6 20.2 21.6 24.0 22.4 21.7 N/A Safe Communities ........ Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000 population) (b) .............. Murder Rate (per 100,000 population) (b) ........................ Murders (per 100,000 Persons Age 14 to 17) .................. 160 5 N/A 199 5 N/A 364 8 N/A 482 10 5 597 10 6 557 8 5 732 9 10 685 8 11 523 6 6 506 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A Health ............................ Infant Mortality (per 1000 Live Births) ............................... Low Birthweight [<2,500 gms] Babies (%) ........................ Life Expectancy at birth (years) ......................................... Cigarette Smokers (% population 18 and older) ............... 26.0 7.7 69.7 N/A 24.7 8.3 70.2 41.9 20.0 7.9 70.8 39.2 16.1 7.4 72.6 36.3 12.6 6.8 73.7 33.0 10.6 6.8 74.7 29.9 9.2 7.0 75.4 25.3 7.6 7.3 75.8 24.6 7.1 7.6 76.7 23.3 6.9 7.6 76.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Learning ........................ High School Graduates (% of population 25 and older) .. College Graduates (% of population 25 and older) .......... National Assessment of Educational Progress (c) Mathematics High School Seniors ................................. Science High School Seniors ........................................ 44.6 8.4 49.0 9.4 55.2 11.0 62.5 13.9 68.6 17.0 73.9 19.4 77.6 21.3 81.7 23.0 83.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 305 302 293 299 286 301 288 305 290 307 295 308 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A Individual Charitable Giving per Capita (2000 dollars) ..... (by presidential election year) Voting for President (% eligible population) ...................... 231 (1960) 62.8 277 (1964) 61.9 333 (1968) 60.9 353 (1972) 55.2 385 (1976) 53.5 396 (1980) 52.8 439 (1984) 53.3 416 (1988) 50.3 553 (1992) 55.1 554 (1996) 49.0 N/A (2000) 51.2 Participation .................. N/A = Not Available. (a) The poverty rate does not reflect noncash government transfers such as Medicaid or food stamps. (b) Not all crimes are reported, and the fraction that go unreported may have varied over time, 2000 data are preliminary. (c) Some data from the national educational assessments have been interpolated. the United States. In choosing indicators for this table, priority was given to measures that were consistently available over an extended period. Such indicators make it easier to draw valid comparisons and evaluate trends. In some cases, however, this meant choosing indicators with significant limitations. The individual measures in this table are influenced to varying degrees by many Government policies and programs, as well as by external factors beyond the Government’s control. They do not measure the outcomes of Government policies, because they generally do not show the direct results of Government activities, but they do provide a quantitative measure of the progress or lack of progress in reaching some of the ultimate values that Government policy is intended to promote. Such a table can serve two functions. First, it highlights areas where the Federal Government might need to modify its current practices or consider new approaches. Where there are clear signs of deteriorating conditions, corrective action might be appropriate. Second, the table provides a context for evaluating other data on Government activities. For example, Government actions that weaken its own financial position may be appropriate when they promote a broader social objective. The Government cannot avoid making such trade-offs because of its size and the broad ranging effects of its actions. Monitoring these effects and incorporating them in the Government’s policy making is a major challenge. It is worth noting that, in recent years, many of the trends in these indicators turned around. The improvement in economic conditions has been widely noted, and there have also been some significant social improvements. Perhaps, most notable has been the turnaround in the crime rate. Since reaching a peak 51 3. STEWARDSHIP: TOWARD A FEDERAL BALANCE SHEET in the early 1990s, the violent crime rate has fallen by a third. The turnaround has been especially dramatic in the murder rate, which was lower in 2000 than at any time since the 1960s. The recession that began in March 2001 is having an effect on some of these indicators already, and could affect others when data become available later this year. Unemployment has risen and real GDP growth has declined. But if the recession is brief, which is the expectation for this budget, much of the improvement shown in Table 3–5 is likely to be preserved. An Interactive Analytical Framework No single framework can encompass all of the factors that affect the financial condition of the Federal Government. Nor can any framework serve as a substitute for actual analysis. Nevertheless, the framework presented here offers a useful way to examine the financial aspects of Federal policies. Increased Federal support for investment, the promotion of national saving through fiscal policy, and other Administration policies to enhance economic growth are expected to promote national wealth and improve the future financial condition of the Federal Government. As that occurs, the efforts will be revealed in these tables. TECHNICAL NOTE: SOURCES OF DATA AND METHOD OF ESTIMATING Federally Owned Assets and Liabilities Assets: Financial Assets: The source of data is the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow-of-Funds Accounts. Physical Assets: Fixed Reproducible Capital: Estimates were developed from the OMB historical data base for physical capital outlays and software purchases. The data base extends back to 1940 and was supplemented by data from other selected sources for 1915–1939. The source data are in current dollars. To estimate investment flows in constant dollars, it was necessary to deflate the nominal investment series. This was done using price deflators for Federal investment from the National Income and Product Accounts. Fixed Nonreproducible Capital: Historical estimates for 1960–1985 were based on estimates in Michael J. Boskin, Marc S. Robinson, and Alan M. Huber, ‘‘Government Saving, Capital Formation and Wealth in the United States, 1947–1985,’’ published in The Measurement of Saving, Investment, and Wealth, edited by Robert E. Lipsey and Helen Stone Tice (The University of Chicago Press, 1989). Estimates were updated using changes in the value of private land from the Flow-of-Funds Balance Sheets and from the Agriculture Department for farm land; the value of Federal oil deposits was extrapolated using the Producer Price Index for Crude Energy Materials. Liabilities: Financial Liabilities: The principal source of data is the Federal Reserve’s Flow-of-Funds Accounts. Insurance Liabilities: Sources of data are the OMB Pension Guarantee Model and OMB estimates based on program data. Historical data on liabilities for deposit insurance were also drawn from CBO’s study, The Economic Effects of the Savings and Loan Crisis, issued January 1992. Pension Liabilities: For 1979–1998, the estimates are the actuarial accrued liabilities as reported in the annual reports for the Civil Service Retirement System, the Federal Employees Retirement System, and the Military Retirement System (adjusted for inflation). Es- timates for the years before 1979 are extrapolations. The estimate for 2001 is a projection. The health insurance liability was estimated by the program actuaries for 1997–2001, and extrapolated back for earlier years. Long-Run Budget Projections The long-run budget projections are based on longrun demographic and economic assumptions. A simplified model of the Federal budget, developed at OMB, computes the budgetary implications of these projections. Demographic and Economic Projections: For the years 2002–2012, the assumptions are identical to those used in the budget. These budget assumptions reflect the President’s policy proposals. The economic assumptions in the budget are extended by holding constant inflation, interest rates, and unemployment at the levels assumed in the final year of the budget. Population growth and labor force growth are extended using the intermediate assumptions from the 2001 Social Security Trustees’ report. The projected rate of growth for real GDP is built up from the labor force assumptions and an assumed rate of productivity growth. The assumed rate of productivity growth is held constant at the average rate of growth implied by the budget’s economic assumptions. Budget Projections: Beyond the budget horizon, receipts are projected using simple rules of thumb linking income taxes, payroll taxes, excise taxes, and other receipts to projected tax bases derived from the economic forecast. Outlays are computed in different ways. Discretionary spending is projected to grow at the rate of inflation or at the rate of growth in nominal GDP. Social Security is projected by the Social Security actuaries using these long-range assumptions. Federal pensions are derived from the most recent actuarial forecasts available at the time the budget is prepared, repriced using Administration inflation assumptions. Medicaid outlays are based on the economic and demographic projections in the model. Medicare projections follow the latest Medicare Trustees’ reports adjusted for the Administration’s different inflation and real growth assumptions. Other entitlement programs are projected based on rules of thumb linking program 52 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES spending to elements of the economic and demographic forecast such as the poverty rate. National Balance Sheet Data Publicly Owned Physical Assets: Basic sources of data for the Federally owned or financed stocks of capital are the Federal investment flows described in Chapter 7. Federal grants for State and local Government capital are added, together with adjustments for inflation and depreciation in the same way as described above for direct Federal investment. Data for total State and local Government capital come from the revised capital stock data prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis extrapolated for 2001. Privately Owned Physical Assets: Data are from the Flow-of-Funds national balance sheets and from the private net capital stock estimates prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis extrapolated for 2001 using investment data from the National Income and Product Accounts. Education Capital: The stock of education capital is computed by valuing the cost of replacing the total years of education embodied in the U.S. population 16 years of age and older at the current cost of providing schooling. The estimated cost includes both direct expenditures in the private and public sectors and an estimate of students’ forgone earnings, i.e., it reflects the opportunity cost of education. Estimates of students’ forgone earnings are based on the year-round, full-time earnings of 18–24 year olds with selected educational attainment levels. These year-round earnings are reduced by 25 percent because students are usually out of school three months of the year. For high school students, these adjusted earnings are further reduced by the unemployment rate for 16–17 year olds; for college students, by the unemployment rate for 20–24 year olds. Yearly earnings by age and educational attainment are from Money Income in the United States, series P60, published by the Bureau of the Census. For this presentation, Federal investment in education capital is a portion of the Federal outlays included in the conduct of education and training. This portion includes direct Federal outlays and grants for elementary, secondary, and vocational education and for higher education. The data exclude Federal outlays for physical capital at educational institutions because these outlays are classified elsewhere as investment in physical capital. The data also exclude outlays under the GI Bill; outlays for graduate and post-graduate education spending in HHS, Defense and Agriculture; and most outlays for vocational training. Data on investment in education financed from other sources come from educational institution reports on the sources of their funds, published in U.S. Department of Education, Digest of Education Statistics. Nominal expenditures were deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP to convert them to constant dol- lar values. Education capital is assumed not to depreciate, but to be retired when a person dies. An education capital stock computed using this method with different source data can be found in Walter McMahon, ‘‘Relative Returns To Human and Physical Capital in the U.S. and Efficient Investment Strategies,’’ Economics of Education Review, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1991. The method is described in detail in Walter McMahon, Investment in Higher Education, Lexington Books, 1974. Research and Development Capital: The stock of R&D capital financed by the Federal Government was developed from a data base that measures the conduct of R&D. The data exclude Federal outlays for physical capital used in R&D because such outlays are classified elsewhere as investment in federally financed physical capital. Nominal outlays were deflated using the GDP price index to convert them to constant dollar values. Federally funded capital stock estimates were prepared using the perpetual inventory method in which annual investment flows are cumulated to arrive at a capital stock. This stock was adjusted for depreciation by assuming an annual rate of depreciation of 10 percent on the estimated stock of applied research and development. Basic research is assumed not to depreciate. Chapter 7 of this volume contains additional details on the estimates of the total federally financed R&D stock, as well as its national defense and nondefense components. A similar method was used to estimate the stock of R&D capital financed from sources other than the Federal Government. The component financed by universities, colleges, and other nonprofit organizations is estimated based on data from the National Science Foundation, Surveys of Science Resources. The industryfinanced R&D stock component is estimated from that source and from the U.S. Department of Labor, The Impact of Research and Development on Productivity Growth, Bulletin 2331, September 1989. Experimental estimates of R&D capital stocks have recently been prepared by BEA. The results are described in ‘‘A Satellite Account for Research and Development,’’ Survey of Current Business, November 1994. These BEA estimates are lower than those presented here primarily because BEA assumes that the stock of basic research depreciates, while the estimates in Table 3–4 assume that basic research does not depreciate. BEA also assumes a slightly higher rate of depreciation for applied research and development, 11 percent, compared with the 10 percent rate used here. Social Indicators The main sources for the data in this table are the Government statistical agencies. The data are all publicly available, and can be found in such general sources as the annual Economic Report of the President and the Statistical Abstract of the United States, or from agencies’ Web sites. FEDERAL RECEIPTS AND COLLECTIONS 53 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS Receipts (budget and off-budget) are taxes and other collections from the public that result from the exercise of the Federal Government’s sovereign or governmental powers. The difference between receipts and outlays determines the surplus or deficit. The Federal Government also collects income from the public from market-oriented activities. Collections from these activities, which are subtracted from gross outlays, rather than added to taxes and other governmental receipts, are discussed in the following chapter. Growth in receipts.—Total receipts in 2003 are estimated to be $2,048.1 billion, an increase of $101.9 bil- Table 4–1. lion or 5.2 percent relative to 2002. Receipts are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent between 2003 and 2007, rising to $2,571.7 billion. This growth in receipts is largely due to assumed increases in incomes resulting from both real economic growth and inflation. As a share of GDP, receipts are projected to decline from 19.6 percent in 2001 to 18.8 percent in 2002 and 2003. The receipts share of GDP is projected to increase to 19.1 percent in 2007, despite the phasein of legislated tax reductions and the President’s proposed tax plan. RECEIPTS BY SOURCE—SUMMARY (In billions of dollars) Estimate Source 2001 actual 2002 Individual income taxes ................................................................... Corporation income taxes ............................................................... Social insurance and retirement receipts ....................................... (On-budget) .................................................................................. (Off-budget) .................................................................................. Excise taxes ..................................................................................... Estate and gift taxes ....................................................................... Customs duties ................................................................................ Miscellaneous receipts .................................................................... Bipartisan economic security plan .................................................. Total receipts ......................................................................... (On-budget) ......................................................................... (Off-budget) ......................................................................... Table 4–2. 994.3 151.1 694.0 (186.4) (507.5) 66.1 28.4 19.4 37.8 ...................... 1,991.0 (1,483.5) (507.5) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 949.2 201.4 708.0 (190.8) (517.2) 66.9 27.5 18.7 36.4 –62.0 1,006.4 205.5 749.2 (203.9) (545.3) 69.0 23.0 19.8 40.2 –65.0 1,058.6 212.0 789.8 (216.3) (573.5) 71.2 26.6 21.9 42.8 –47.5 1,112.0 237.1 835.2 (227.0) (608.2) 73.6 23.4 23.0 43.2 –9.5 1,157.3 241.4 868.7 (235.1) (633.7) 75.3 26.4 24.7 44.4 17.0 1,221.7 250.6 908.3 (243.0) (665.3) 77.5 23.2 26.2 46.2 18.0 1,946.1 (1,428.9) (517.2) 2,048.1 (1,502.7) (545.3) 2,175.4 (1,601.9) (573.5) 2,338.0 (1,729.8) (608.2) 2,455.3 (1,821.6) (633.7) 2,571.7 (1,906.4) (665.3) EFFECT ON RECEIPTS OF CHANGES IN THE SOCIAL SECURITY TAXABLE EARNINGS BASE (In billions of dollars) Estimate Social security (OASDI) taxable earnings base increases:. $84,900 to $89,700 on Jan. 1, 2003 ......................................................................................................................... $89,700 to $92,400 on Jan. 1, 2004 ......................................................................................................................... $92,400 to $96,000 on Jan. 1, 2005 ......................................................................................................................... $96,000 to $99,900 on Jan. 1, 2006 ......................................................................................................................... $99,900 to $103,800 on Jan. 1, 2007 ....................................................................................................................... 2003 2004 2005 2006 2.2 ................ ................ ................ ................ 5.8 1.3 ................ ................ ................ 6.4 3.3 1.7 ................ ................ 7.0 3.6 4.5 1.9 ................ 2007 7.7 3.9 4.9 4.9 1.9 55 56 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES ENACTED LEGISLATION Several laws were enacted in 2001 that have an effect on governmental receipts. The major legislative changes affecting receipts are described below. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TAX RELIEF RECONCILIATION ACT OF 2001 (EGTRRA) From the Administration’s first day in office, President Bush worked to deliver on his campaign promise of meaningful tax relief. Congress moved with exceptional speed and on June 7, 2001, this Act was signed by President Bush. The major provisions of this Act, which are described in greater detail below, create a new 10-percent individual income tax rate bracket; reduce marginal income tax rates for individuals; eliminate the estate tax; reduce the marriage penalty; provide relief from the alternative minimum tax (AMT); modify the timing of estimated tax payments by corporations; and modify tax benefits for children, education, and pension and retirement savings. Almost all of the provisions phase in over a number of years and sunset on December 31, 2010. Individual Income Tax Relief Create a new 10-percent individual income tax rate bracket.—Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2000 and before January 1, 2011, the prior law 15-percent individual income tax rate bracket is split into two tax rate brackets of 10 and 15 percent. The new 10-percent tax rate bracket applies to the first $6,000 of taxable income for single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separate returns (increasing to $7,000 for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2007), the first $10,000 of taxable income for heads of household, and the first $12,000 of taxable income for married taxpayers filing a joint return (increasing to $14,000 of taxable income for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2007). Taxable income above these thresholds that was taxed at the 15-percent rate under prior law will continue to be taxed at that rate. The income thresholds for the new tax rate bracket will be adjusted annually for inflation, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2008 and before January 1, 2011. For 2001, most taxpayers received the benefit of the new 10-percent tax rate bracket through an advanced credit, issued by the Department of Treasury in the form of a check. The amount of the advanced credit was equal to 5 percent of taxable income reported on tax returns filed for 2000, up to a maximum credit of $300 for single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separate returns, $500 for heads of household, and $600 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. Taxpayers are entitled to a similar credit on tax returns filed for 2001 to the extent that it exceeds the advanced credit, if any, that they received on the basis of tax returns filed for 2000. Reduce individual income tax rates.—In addition to splitting the 15-percent tax rate bracket of prior law into two tax rate brackets (see preceding discussion), this Act replaces the four remaining statutory individual income tax rate brackets of prior law (28, 31, 36, and 39.6 percent) with a rate structure of 25, 28, 33, and 35 percent. The reduced tax rate structure is phased in over a period of six years, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2000, as follows: the 28-percent rate is reduced to 27.5 percent for 2001, 27 percent for 2002 and 2003, 26 percent for 2004 and 2005, and 25 percent for 2006 through 2010; the 31 percent rate is reduced to 30.5 for 2001, 30 percent for 2002 and 2003, 29 percent for 2004 and 2005, and 28 percent for 2006 through 2010; the 36 percent rate is reduced to 35.5 percent for 2001, 35 percent for 2002 and 2003, 34 percent for 2004 and 2005, and 33 percent for 2006 through 2010; and the 39.6 percent rate is reduced to 39.1 percent for 2001, 38.6 percent for 2002 and 2003, 37.6 percent for 2004 and 2005, and 35 percent for 2006 through 2010. The income thresholds for these tax rate brackets are adjusted annually for inflation as provided under prior law. Repeal phaseout of personal exemptions.—Under prior law, the deduction for taxpayer and dependent personal exemptions ($2,900 for taxable year 2001), began to be phased out for taxpayers with adjusted gross income (AGI) over certain thresholds (for taxable year 2001, the thresholds were $132,950 for single taxpayers, $166,200 for heads of household, $99,725 for married taxpayers filing separate returns, and $199,450 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). For taxable year 2001, the deduction for personal exemptions was fully phased out above AGI of $255,450 for single taxpayers, $288,700 for heads of household, $160,975 for married taxpayers filing separate returns, and $321,950 for married taxpayers filing a joint return. This Act phases in the repeal of the phaseout of personal exemptions over a five-year period, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2005. The otherwise applicable personal exemption phaseout is reduced by onethird for taxable years 2006 and 2007, is reduced by two-thirds for taxable years 2008 and 2009, and is repealed for taxable year 2010. Repeal limitation on itemized deductions.— Under prior law, the amount of otherwise allowable itemized deductions (other than medical expenses, investment interest, theft and casualty losses, and wagering losses) was reduced by three percent of AGI in excess of certain thresholds (for taxable year 2001, the thresholds were $66,475 for married taxpayers filing separate returns and $132,950 for all other taxpayers). This Act phases in the repeal of the limitation on itemized deductions over a five-year period, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2005. The otherwise applicable limitation on itemized deduc- 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS tions is reduced by one-third for taxable years 2006 and 2007, is reduced by two-thirds for taxable years 2008 and 2009, and is repealed for taxable year 2010. Tax Benefits for Children Increase and expand the child tax credit.—Under prior law, taxpayers were provided a tax credit of up to $500 for each qualifying child under the age of 17. This Act doubles the maximum amount of the credit to $1,000 over a 10-year period, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2000. The credit increases to $600 for taxable years 2001 through 2004, $700 for taxable years 2005 through 2008, $800 for taxable year 2009, and $1,000 for taxable year 2010. Generally, the credit was nonrefundable under prior law; however, taxpayers with three or more qualifying children could be eligible for an additional refundable child tax credit if they had little or no individual income tax liability. The additional credit could be offset against social security payroll tax liability, provided that liability exceeded the refundable portion of the earned income tax credit (EITC). Under this Act, the child credit is refundable to the extent of 10 percent of the taxpayer’s earned income in excess of $10,000 for taxable years 2001 through 2004. The percentage increases to 15 percent for taxable years 2005 through 2010. The $10,000 earned income threshold is indexed annually for inflation beginning in 2002. Families with three or more children are allowed a refundable credit for the amount by which their social security payroll taxes exceed their earned income credit (the prior law rule), if that amount is greater than the refundable credit based on their earned income in excess of $10,000. This Act also provides that the refundable portion of the child credit does not constitute income and shall not be treated as resources for purposes of determining eligibility or the amount or nature of benefits or assistance under any Federal program or any State or local program financed with Federal funds. Under prior law, beginning in taxable year 2002, the child tax credit would have been allowed only to the extent that an individual’s regular individual income tax liability exceeded his or her tentative minimum tax. In addition, beginning in taxable year 2002, the refundable child tax credit would have been reduced by the amount of the individual’s alternative minimum tax. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, this Act allows the child credit to offset both the regular tax and the alternative minimum tax; in addition, the refundable credit will not be reduced by the amount of the alternative minimum tax. Extend and expand adoption tax benefits.—Prior law provided a permanent nonrefundable 100-percent tax credit for the first $6,000 of qualified expenses incurred in the adoption of a child with special needs. A nonrefundable 100-percent tax credit was provided for the first $5,000 of qualified expenses incurred before January 1, 2002 in the adoption of a child without 57 special needs. The adoption credit (including the credit for the adoption of a child with special needs) phased out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $75,000 and $115,000. In addition, for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, the otherwise allowable adoption credit was allowed only to the extent that the taxpayer’s regular income tax liability exceeded the taxpayer’s tentative minimum tax. This Act increases the credit for qualified expenses incurred in the adoption of a child, including a child with special needs, to $10,000, effective for qualified expenses incurred after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011. The $10,000 amount is indexed annually for inflation, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002. For the adoption of a child with special needs finalized after December 31, 2002 and before January 1, 2011, the credit is provided regardless of whether qualified adoption expenses are incurred. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, the credit (including the credit for the adoption of a child with special needs) phases out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $150,000 and $190,000. The start of the phaseout range is indexed annually for inflation effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002, but the width of the phase-out range remains at $40,000. In addition, for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, the adoption tax credit is allowed against the alternative minimum tax. Under prior law, up to $5,000 per child in qualified adoption expenses paid or reimbursed by an employer under an adoption assistance program could be excluded from the gross income of an employee. The maximum exclusion was $6,000 for the adoption of a child with special needs. The exclusion, which applied to amounts paid or expenses incurred before January 1, 2002, was phased out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI (including the full amount of the employer adoption benefit) between $75,000 and $115,000. This Act increases the maximum exclusion to $10,000 per child, including the adoption of a child with special needs, effective for expenses incurred after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011. The $10,000 amount is indexed annually for inflation, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002. For the adoption of a child with special needs finalized after December 31, 2002 and before January 1, 2011, the exclusion is provided regardless of whether qualified adoption expenses are incurred. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, the exclusion (including the exclusion for the adoption of a child with special needs) phases out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $150,000 and $190,000. The start of the phase-out range is indexed annually for inflation effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002, but the width of the phase-out range remains at $40,000. Expand dependent care tax credit.—Under prior law, a taxpayer could receive a nonrefundable tax credit for a percentage of a limited amount of dependent care 58 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES expenses ($2,400 for one qualifying dependent and $4,800 for two or more qualifying dependents) paid in order to work. The credit rate was phased down from 30 percent of expenses (for taxpayers with AGI of $10,000 or less) to 20 percent of expenses (for taxpayers with AGI above $28,000). Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002 and before January 1, 2011, this Act increases the maximum amount of eligible employment related expenses to $3,000 for one qualifying dependent and to $6,000 for two or more qualifying dependents. In addition, the maximum credit rate is increased to 35 percent for taxpayers with AGI of $15,000 or less, and the phase down is modified so that the 20 percent rate applies to taxpayers with AGI above $43,000. Provide tax credit for employer-provided child care facilities.—A 25-percent tax credit is provided to employers for qualified expenses incurred to build, acquire, rehabilitate, expand, or operate a child care facility for employee use, or to provide child care services to children of employees directly or through a third party. A 10-percent credit is provided for qualified expenses incurred to provide employees with child care resource and referral services. The maximum total credit for an employer may not exceed $150,000 per taxable year, and is effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011. Any deduction the employer would otherwise be entitled to take for the expenses is reduced by the amount of the credit. The taxpayer’s basis in a facility is reduced to the extent that a credit is claimed for expenses of constructing, rehabilitating, expanding, or acquiring a facility; in addition, the credit is subject to recapture for the first ten years after the qualified child care facility is placed in service. Marriage Penalty Relief Increase standard deduction for married taxpayers filing a joint return.—The basic standard deduction amount for single taxpayers under prior law was equal to 60 percent of the basic standard deduction amount for married taxpayers filing a joint return. Therefore, two single taxpayers had a combined standard deduction that exceeded the standard deduction of a married couple filing a joint return. This Act increases the standard deduction for married couples filing a joint return to double the standard deduction for single taxpayers over a five-year period, beginning after December 31, 2004. Under the phasein, the standard deduction for married taxpayers filing a joint return increases to 174 percent of the standard deduction for single taxpayers in taxable year 2005, 184 percent in taxable year 2006, 187 percent in taxable year 2007, 190 percent in taxable year 2008, and 200 percent in taxable years 2009 and 2010. Expand the 15-percent tax rate bracket for married taxpayers filing a joint return.—The size of the 15-percent tax rate bracket for married taxpayers filing a joint return is increased to twice the size of the corresponding tax rate bracket for single taxpayers. The increase, which is phased in over four years, beginning after December 31, 2004, is as follows: the 15percent tax rate bracket for married taxpayers filing a joint return increases to 180 percent of the corresponding tax rate bracket for single taxpayers in taxable year 2005, 187 percent in taxable year 2006, 193 percent in taxable year 2007, and 200 percent in taxable years 2008, 2009 and 2010. Modify the phaseout of the earned income credit (EITC) for married taxpayers filing a joint return and simplify the EITC.— The maximum earned income tax credit is phased in as an individual’s earned income increases. The credit phases out for individuals with earned income (or, if greater, modified AGI) over certain levels. For married taxpayers filing a joint return, both the phasein and phaseout of the credit are calculated based on the couples’ combined income. Under this Act, for married taxpayers filing a joint return, the income threshold at which the credit begins to phase out is increased, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011. For married taxpayers filing a joint return the phase-out threshold increases by $1,000 for taxable years 2002 through 2004, $2,000 for taxable years 2005 through 2007, and $3,000 for taxable years 2008 through 2010. The $3,000 amount is increased annually for inflation beginning in taxable year 2009. This Act also simplifies EITC eligibility criteria and allows the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to use more cost efficient procedures to deny certain questionable EITC claims. In addition, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, the prior law rule that reduced the EITC by the amount of the alternative minimum tax is repealed. Education Incentives Increase and expand education savings accounts.—Under prior law, taxpayers were permitted to contribute up to $500 per year to an education savings account (an ‘‘education IRA’’) for beneficiaries under age 18. The contribution limit was phased out for taxpayers with modified AGI between $95,000 and $110,000 (between $150,000 and $160,000 for married couples filing a joint return). Contributions to an education IRA were not deductible, but earnings on contributions were allowed to accumulate tax-free. Distributions were excludable from gross income to the extent they did not exceed qualified higher education expenses incurred during the year the distribution was made. The earnings portion of a distribution not used to cover qualified higher education expenses was included in the gross income of the beneficiary and was generally subject to an additional 10-percent tax. If any portion of a distribution from an education savings account was excluded from gross income, an education tax credit could not be claimed with respect to the same student for the same taxable year. An excise tax 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS of six percent was imposed on contributions to an education IRA in any year in which contributions were also made to a qualified State tuition program on behalf of the same beneficiary. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, this Act increases the annual contribution limit to education IRAs to $2,000 and increases the contribution phase-out range for married couples filing a joint return to twice the range for single taxpayers ($190,000 to $220,000 of AGI). As under prior law, contributions to an education IRA are not deductible, but earnings on contributions are allowed to accumulate tax-free. In addition to allowing tax-free and penalty-free distributions for qualified higher education expenses, this Act expands education savings accounts to allow tax-free and penalty-free distributions for qualified elementary, secondary and after school expenses. Qualified expenses at public, private, and religious educational institutions providing elementary and secondary education generally include: tuition; fees; academic tutoring; special needs services; books; supplies; computer equipment; and certain expenses for room and board, uniforms, and transportation. Under this Act: (1) the rule prohibiting contributions after the beneficiary attains age 18 does not apply in the case of a special needs beneficiary, as defined by Treasury Department regulations, (2) both an education tax credit and a tax-free distribution from an education savings account are allowed with respect to the same student in the same taxable year, provided the credit and the distribution are not used for the same expenses, and (3) the excise tax on contributions made to an education IRA on behalf of a beneficiary during any taxable year in which contributions are made to a qualifying State tuition program on behalf of the same beneficiary is repealed. Allow tax-free distributions from Qualified State Tuition Plans (QSTPs) for certain higher education expenses and allow private colleges to offer prepaid tuition plans.—QSTP programs generally take two forms - prepaid tuition plans and savings plans. Under a prepaid tuition plan, an individual may purchase tuition credits or certificates on behalf of a designated beneficiary, which entitle the beneficiary to the waiver or payment of qualified higher education expenses at participating educational institutions. Under a savings plan, an individual may make contributions to an account, which is established for the purpose of meeting the qualified higher education expenses of a designated beneficiary. Distributions from QSTPs for nonqualified expenses generally are subject to a more than de minimis penalty (typically 10 percent of the earnings portion of the distribution). There is no specific dollar cap on annual contributions to a QSTP; in addition, there is no limit on contributions to a QSTP based on the contributor’s income. Contributions to a QSTP are permitted at any time during the beneficiary’s lifetime and the account can remain open after the beneficiary reaches age 30. However, a QSTP must provide adequate safeguards to prevent contribu- 59 tions on behalf of a designated beneficiary in excess of amounts necessary to provide for qualified education expenses. Two basic tax benefits were provided to contributions to, and beneficiaries of, QSTPs under prior law: (1) earnings on amounts invested in a QSTP were not subject to tax until a distribution was made (or educational benefits were provided), and (2) distributions made on behalf of a beneficiary were taxed at the beneficiary’s (rather than the contributor’s) individual income tax rate. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, this Act provides for tax-free withdrawals from QSTPs for qualified higher education expenses, including tuition and fees; certain expenses for room and board; certain expenses for books, supplies, and equipment; and expenses of a special needs beneficiary that are necessary in connection with enrollment or attendance at an eligible education institution. An education tax credit, a tax-free distribution from an education savings account, and a tax-free distribution from a QSTP are allowed with respect to the same student in the same taxable year, provided the credit and the distributions are not used for the same expenses. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003 and before January 1, 2011, this Act allows private educational institutions to establish qualified prepaid tuition plans (but not savings plans), provided the institution is eligible to participate in Federal financial aid programs under Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965. In addition, the prior law rule imposing a more than de minimis monetary penalty on any refund of earnings not used for qualified higher education expenses is repealed and replaced with an additional 10-percent tax on any payment includible in gross income; however, effective for taxable years beginning before January 1, 2004, the 10-percent tax does not apply to any distribution from a private prepaid tuition program that is includible in gross income but used for qualified higher education expenses. Provide deduction for qualified higher education expenses.—An above-the-line deduction is provided for qualified higher education expenses, effective for expenses paid in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2006. Taxpayers with AGI less than or equal to $65,000 ($130,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return) are provided a maximum deduction of $3,000 in taxable years 2002 and 2003, which increases to $4,000 in taxable years 2004 and 2005. Taxpayers with AGI greater than $65,000 and less than or equal to $80,000 (greater than $130,000 and less than or equal to $160,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return) are provided a maximum deduction of $2,000 for taxable years 2004 and 2005. For a given taxable year, the deduction may not be claimed for the qualified education expenses of a student if an education tax credit is claimed for the same student. In addition, the deduction may not be claimed for amounts taken into account in determining the amount excludable from income due to a distribution 60 from an education IRA or the amount of interest excludable from income with respect to education savings bonds. A taxpayer may not claim a deduction for the amount of a distribution from a qualified tuition plan that is excludable from income; however the deduction may be claimed for the amount of a distribution from a qualified tuition plan that is not attributable to earnings. Extend and expand exclusion for employer-provided educational assistance.—Certain amounts paid or incurred by an employer for educational assistance provided to an employee are excluded from the employee’s gross income for income and payroll tax purposes. The exclusion is limited to $5,250 of educational assistance with respect to an individual during a calendar year and applies whether or not the education is job-related. The exclusion, which applied to undergraduate courses beginning before January 1, 2002 under prior law, is extended to apply to courses beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, and is expanded to apply to graduate courses. Modify student loan interest deduction.—Prior law allowed certain individuals to claim an above-theline deduction for up to $2,500 in annual interest paid on qualified education loans, during the first 60 months in which interest payments were required. The maximum annual interest deduction was phased out ratably for single taxpayers with AGI between $40,000 and $55,000 ($60,000 and $75,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). The deduction did not apply to voluntary payments, such as interest payments made during a period of loan forbearance. Effective for interest paid on qualified education loans after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, both the limit on the number of months during which interest paid is deductible and the restriction that voluntary payments of interest are not deductible are repealed. In addition, the income phase-out ranges for eligibility for the deduction are increased to between $50,000 and $65,000 of AGI for a single taxpayer ($100,000 and $130,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). The income phase-out ranges are adjusted annually for inflation after 2002. Provide tax relief for awards under certain health education programs.—Current law provides tax-free treatment for certain scholarship and fellowship grants used to pay qualified tuition and related expenses, but not to the extent that any grant represents compensation for services. Under this Act, amounts received by an individual under the National Health Service Corps Scholarship Program or the Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship and Financial Assistance Program may be ‘‘qualified scholarships’’ excludable from income, without regard to the recipient’s future service obligation. This change is effective for awards received after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Modify arbitrage restrictions on tax-exempt bonds issued by small governmental units for public schools.—To prevent tax exempt entities from issuing more Federally subsidized tax-exempt bonds than is necessary for the activity being financed, current law includes arbitrage restrictions limiting the ability to profit from investment of tax-exempt bond proceeds. In general, arbitrage profits may be earned only during specified periods or on specified types of investments, and, subject to limited exceptions, must be rebated to the Federal Government. Under prior law, governmental bonds issued by small governmental units were not subject to the rebate. Small governmental units are defined as general purpose governmental units that issue no more than $5 million of tax-exempt governmental bonds in a calendar year ($10 million of governmental bonds if at least $5 million of the bonds are used to finance public schools). Effective for bonds issued after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, this Act increases to $15 million the maximum amount of governmental bonds that small governmental units may issue without being subject to the arbitrage rebate requirements, if at least $10 million of the bonds are used for public schools. Allow States to issue tax-exempt private activity bonds for school construction.—Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, the activities for which States may issue tax-exempt private activity bonds is expanded to include the construction and equipping of public school facilities owned by private, for-profit corporations pursuant to public-private partnership agreements with a State or local educational agency. Under such agreements the for-profit corporation constructs, rehabilitates, refurbishes or equips the school facility, which must be operated by a public educational agency as part of a system of public schools; ownership reverts to the public agency when the bonds are retired. Issuance of these bonds is subject to an annual perState volume limit of $10 per resident (a minimum of $5 million is provided for small States); this is in addition to the present-law private activity bond perState volume limit equal to the greater of $75 per resident or $225 million in 2002, and indexed annually thereafter. Estate, Gift, and Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax Provisions Phase out and repeal estate and generationskipping transfer taxes, and reduce gift tax rates.—Under prior law, the unified estate and gift tax rates on taxable transfers began at 18 percent on the first $10,000 of cumulative taxable transfers and reached 55 percent on cumulative transfers in excess of $3 million. A five-percent surtax (which phased out the benefit of the graduated rates and increased the top marginal tax rate to 60 percent) was imposed on cumulative transfers between $10 million and $17,184,000. A generation-skipping transfer tax was im- 4. 61 FEDERAL RECEIPTS posed on transfers made either directly or through a trust or similar arrangement to a beneficiary in a generation more than one generation below that of the transferor (a ‘‘skip person’’). Cumulative generationskipping transfers in excess of $1 million (adjusted annually for inflation after 1997) were taxed at the top estate and gift tax rate of 55 percent. Under this Act, estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer tax rates are reduced for decedents dying and gifts made after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2010. Estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes are repealed for decedents dying after December 31, 2009 and before January 1, 2011, while the maximum tax rate on gifts made after December 31, 2009 and before January 1, 2011 is reduced to 35 percent on gifts in excess of a lifetime exclusion of $1 million (see discussion of unified credit below). The reduction in tax rates begins in 2002 with the repeal of the fivepercent surtax and the reduction of the 53 percent and 55 percent rates to 50 percent. The maximum tax rate on estates, gifts, and generation-skipping transfers is reduced from 50 percent in 2002 to 49 percent in 2003, 48 percent in 2004, 47 percent in 2005, 46 percent in 2006, and 45 percent in 2007 through 2009. Increase unified credit exemption amount.— Under prior law, the unified credit applicable to cumulative taxable transfers by gift and at death effectively exempted from tax transfers totaling $675,000 in 2001, $700,000 in 2002 and 2003, $850,000 in 2004, $950,000 in 2005 and $1 million in 2006 and subsequent years. The tax on generation-skipping transfers applied only to cumulative transfers in excess of $1 million, adjusted annually for inflation after 1997 ($1,060,000 in 2001). This Act increases the unified credit effective exemption amount for estate and gift tax purposes to $1 million in 2002. The effective exemption amount for gift tax purposes will remain at $1 million; however, the effective exemption amount for estate and generation-skipping transfer tax purposes will increase to $1.5 million in 2004 and 2005, $2.0 million in 2006 through 2008, and $3.5 million in 2009. Reduce and modify allowance for State death taxes paid.—A credit against the Federal estate tax for any estate, inheritance, legacy, or succession taxes actually paid to any State or the District of Columbia with respect to any property included in the decedent’s gross estate, was provided under prior law. The allowable credit was limited to the lesser of the tax paid or a percentage of the decedent’s adjusted taxable estate (ranging from 0.8 percent of adjusted taxable estate between $40,000 and $90,000, up to 16 percent of adjusted taxable estate in excess of $10,040,000). This Act reduces the credit rates by 25 percent in 2002, 50 percent in 2003, and 75 percent in 2004. For 2005 through 2009, the credit is replaced by a deduction for taxes paid. Modify basis of property received.—Under prior law, the basis of property passing from a decedent’s estate generally was the fair market value of the property on the date of the decedent’s death. This step up (or step down) in basis eliminated the recognition of income on any appreciation of the property that occurred prior to the decedent’s death, and had the effect of eliminating the tax benefit from any unrealized loss. Effective for decedent’s dying after December 31, 2009 and before January 1, 2011, the basis of property passing from a decedent’s estate will be the lesser of the adjusted basis of the decedent or the fair market value of the property on the date of the decedent’s death. Each decedent’s estate generally is permitted to increase the basis of assets transferred by up to a total of $1.3 million for assets passing to any heir plus an additional $3 million for property transferred to a surviving spouse. Nonresidents who are not U.S. citizens are allowed to increase the basis of property by up to $60,000. Each estate is also allowed additional basis equal to the decedent’s unused capital loss and net operating loss carryforwards and built-in capital losses. Modify other provisions affecting estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer taxes.—Other modifications provided in this Act: (1) expand the estate tax exclusion for qualified conservation easements, (2) change the generation-skipping transfer tax rules to ensure that a taxpayer does not inadvertently lose the benefit of the generation-skipping transfer tax exemption, and (3) expand eligibility for the payment of estate and gift taxes in installments. Pension and Retirement Provisions Increase contributions to Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).—There are two types of IRAs under present law - Roth IRAs and traditional IRAs. Individuals with AGI below certain thresholds may make nondeductible contributions to a Roth IRA (deductible contributions are not allowed). The maximum allowable annual contribution to a Roth IRA is phased out for single taxpayers with AGI between $95,000 and $110,000 (between $150,000 and $160,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). Account earnings are not includible in income, and qualified distributions from a Roth IRA are tax-free. Both deductible and nondeductible contributions may be made to a traditional IRA. Contributions to a traditional IRA are deductible if neither the individual nor the individual’s spouse is an active participant in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. If the individual is an active participant in an employer-sponsored retirement plan, the deduction limit is phased out between $34,000 and $44,000 of AGI for single taxpayers (between $54,000 and $64,000 of AGI for married taxpayers filing a joint return). If the individual is not an active participant in an employer-sponsored retirement plan but the individual’s spouse is an active participant, the deduction limit is phased out between $150,000 and $160,000 of AGI. All taxpayers may make nondeductible contributions to a traditional IRA, regardless of income. Account earnings from IRAs are not includible in income when 62 earned. However, distributions from traditional IRAs are includible in income, except to the extent they are a return of nondeductible contributions. Under prior law, the maximum annual contribution to an IRA was the lesser of $2,000 or the individual’s compensation. In the case of married taxpayers filing a joint return, annual contributions of up to $2,000 were allowed for each spouse, provided the combined compensation of the spouses was at least equal to the contributed amount. This Act increases the maximum annual contribution to an IRA to $3,000 for taxable years 2002 through 2004, $4,000 for taxable years 2005 through 2007, and $5,000 for taxable year 2008. For taxable years 2009 and 2010, the limit is adjusted annually for inflation in $500 increments. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, individuals who attain age 50 before the end of the year may make additional catch-up contributions to an IRA. For these individuals, the otherwise maximum contribution limit (before application of the AGI phaseout limits) is increased by $500 for taxable years 2002 through 2005 and by $1,000 for taxable years 2006 through 2010. Increase contribution and benefit limits under qualified pension plans.—Limits on contributions and benefits under qualified pension plans are based on the type of plan. Under prior law, annual additions to a defined contribution plan with respect to each plan participant were limited to the lesser of (1) 25 percent of compensation or (2) $35,000 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in $5,000 increments. Under prior law, the maximum annual benefit payable at an individual’s social security retirement age under a defined benefit plan was generally the lesser of (1) 100 percent of average compensation, or (2) $140,000 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in $5,000 increments. The annual compensation of each participant that could be taken into account for purposes of determining contributions and benefits under a plan generally was limited to $170,000 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in $10,000 increments. Maximum annual elective deferrals that an individual was allowed to make to a qualified cash or deferred arrangement (401(k) plan), a tax-sheltered annuity (section 403(b) annuity), or a salary reduction simplified employee pension plan (SEP) under prior law were limited to $10,500 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in increments of $500. The maximum amount of annual elective deferrals that an individual was allowed to make to a savings incentive match plan (SIMPLE plan) under prior law was $6,500 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in increments of $500. Under prior law the maximum annual deferral under an eligible deferred compensation plan of a State or local government or a tax-exempt organization (a section 457 plan) was the lesser of (1) $8,500 (for 2001), adjusted for inflation in increments of $500, or (2) 33 1/3 percent of compensation. In the three years prior to retirement, the limit on contributions to an eligible section 457 plan is generally increased to twice the otherwise applicable dollar limit. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, the contribution limit to a defined contribution plan is increased to the lesser of 100 percent of compensation or $40,000 (adjusted annually for inflation in $1,000 increments after 2002). Effective for taxable years ending after December 31, 2001, the benefit limit for defined benefit plans is increased to $160,000 (adjusted annually for inflation for plans ending after December 31, 2002, in increments of $1,000) and calculated as a benefit payable at age 62. The compensation that may be taken into account under a plan is increased to $200,000 in 2002 (indexed annually thereafter in $5,000 increments). The dollar limit on annual elective deferrals under section 401(k) plans, section 403(b) annuities and salary reduction SEPs is increased to $11,000 in 2002, and increased annually thereafter in $1,000 increments, reaching $15,000 in 2006 (adjusted annually for inflation in increments of $500 after 2006). The dollar limit on annual elective deferrals to a SIMPLE plan is increased to $7,000 in 2002, and increased annually thereafter in $1,000 increments, reaching $10,000 in 2005 (adjusted for inflation in increments of $500 after 2006). The dollar limit on contributions to an eligible section 457 plan is increased to the lesser of (1) 100 percent of includable compensation or (2) $11,000 in 2002, $12,000 in 2003, $13,000 in 2004, $14,000 in 2005, and $15,000 in 2006 (adjusted for inflation in increments of $500 after 2006). Permit catch-up contributions to certain salary reduction arrangements.—Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, the otherwise applicable dollar limit on elective deferrals under a section 401(k) plan, section 403(b) annuity, SEP or SIMPLE plan, or deferrals under a section 457 plan is increased for individuals who attain age 50 by the end of the year. The additional amount of elective contributions that is permitted to be made by an eligible individual participating in such a plan is the lesser of: (1) the applicable dollar amount or (2) the participant’s compensation for the year after reduction by any other elective deferrals of the participant for the year. The applicable dollar amount under a 401(k) plan, section 403(b) plan, SEP, or section 457 plan is $1,000 for 2002, $2,000 for 2003, $3,000 for 2004, $4,000 for 2005, and $5,000 for 2006 through 2010 (adjusted annually for inflation in $500 increments beginning in 2007). The applicable dollar amount under a SIMPLE plan is $500 for 2002, $1,000 for 2003, $1,500 for 2004, $2,000 for 2005, and $2,500 for 2006 through 2010 (adjusted annually for inflation in $500 increments beginning in 2007). Provide a nonrefundable tax credit to certain individuals for elective deferrals and IRA contributions.—For taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2007, a nonrefundable tax credit is provided for up to $2,000 in contributions made by eligible taxpayers to a qualified plan or to a traditional or Roth IRA. The credit, which is in addition to any deduction or exclusion that would 4. 63 FEDERAL RECEIPTS otherwise apply with respect to the contribution, is available to single taxpayers with AGI less than or equal to $25,000 ($37,500 for heads of household and $50,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). The credit is available to individuals who are 18 years of age or older (other than individuals who are fulltime students or claimed as a dependent on another taxpayer’s return) and is offset against both the regular and alternative minimum tax. The credit rate is 50 percent for single taxpayers with AGI less than or equal to $15,000 ($30,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and $22,500 for heads of household), 20 percent for single taxpayers with AGI between $15,000 and $16,250 (between $30,000 and $32,500 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and between $22,500 and $24,375 for heads of household), and 10 percent for single taxpayers with AGI between $16,250 and $25,000 (between $32,500 and $50,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and between $24,375 and $37,500 for heads of household). Provide tax credit for new retirement plan expenses of small businesses.—Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, a nonrefundable tax credit is provided for qualified administrative and retirement-education expenses incurred by a small business (an employer that did not employ, in the preceding year, more than 100 employees with compensation in excess of $5,000) that adopts a new qualified defined benefit or defined contribution plan (including a section 401(k) plan), SIMPLE plan, or SEP. The credit applies to 50 percent of the first $1,000 in qualifying expenses for the plan for each of the first three years of the plan. The 50 percent of qualifying expenses offset by the credit are not deductible; the other 50 percent of qualifying expenses (and other expenses) are deductible as under prior law. Modify other pension and retirement provisions.—In addition to the provisions described above, this Act expands coverage in pension and retirement plans through provisions that: (1) require accelerated vesting for matching employer contributions, (2) modify the definition of key employee, (3) eliminate IRS user fees for certain determination letter requests regarding employer plans, (4) modify the application of the deduction limitation with regard to elective deferral contributions, (5) repeal the rules coordinating contributions to eligible section 457 plans with contributions under other types of plans, (6) increase the annual limitation on the amount of deductible contributions made by an employer to a profit-sharing or stock bonus plan, (7) modify the definition of compensation for purposes of the deduction rules, (8) provide the option to treat elective deferrals as after-tax contributions, (9) improve notice to employees for pension amendments reducing future accruals, (10) increase portability, (11) strengthen pension security and enforcement, and (12) reduce regulatory burdens. Other Provisions Provide minimum tax relief to individuals.—An alternative minimum tax is imposed on individuals to the extent that the tentative minimum tax exceeds the regular tax. An individual’s tentative minimum tax generally is equal to the sum of: (1) 26 percent of the first $175,000 ($87,500 in the case of a married individual filing a separate return) of alternative minimum taxable income (taxable income modified to take account of specified preferences and adjustments) in excess of an exemption amount and (2) 28 percent of the remaining alternative minimum taxable income. The AMT exemption amounts under prior law were: (1) $45,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and surviving spouses; (2) $33,750 for single taxpayers, and (3) $22,500 for married taxpayers filing a separate return, estates and trusts. The exemption amounts are phased out by an amount equal to 25 percent of the amount by which the individual’s alternative minimum taxable income exceeds: (1) $150,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and surviving spouses, (2) $112,500 for single taxpayers, and (3) $75,000 for married taxpayers filing a separate return, estates and trusts. The exemption amounts, the threshold phaseout amounts, and the rate brackets are not indexed for inflation. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2005, the exemption amount is increased to $49,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return and surviving spouses, $35,750 for single taxpayers, and $24,500 for married taxpayers filing a separate return, estates and trusts. Modify the timing of estimated tax payments by corporations.—Corporations generally are required to pay their income tax liability in quarterly estimated payments. For corporations that keep their accounts on a calendar year basis, these payments are due on or before April 15, June 15, September 15 and December 15 (if these dates fall on a holiday or weekend, payment is due on the next business day). This Act allowed corporations to delay the estimated payment otherwise due on September 17, 2001 until October 1, 2001; 20 percent of the estimated tax payment otherwise due on September 15, 2004 may be delayed until October 1, 2004. VICTIMS OF TERRORISM TAX RELIEF ACT OF 2001 This Act provides income and estate tax relief to the survivors of victims of (1) the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, (2) the April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, and (3) exposure to anthrax on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002. General relief is also provided for victims of disasters and terrorist actions. The tax relief provided in this Act does not apply to any individual identified by the Attorney General to have been a participant or conspirator in the terrorist attack or attacks to which a specific provision applies, or a representative 64 of such individual. The major provisions of this Act are described below. Provide individual income tax relief to victims of terrorist attacks.—Under current law an individual in active service as a member of the Armed Forces who dies while serving in a combat zone is not subject to income tax for the year of death (as well as for any prior taxable year ending on or after the first day the individual served in the combat zone). In addition, military and civilian employees of the United States are exempt from income taxes if they die as a result of wounds or injury incurred outside the United States in terrorist or military action. This exemption is available for the year of death and for prior taxable years beginning with the taxable year prior to the taxable year in which the wounds or injury were incurred. This Act extends relief similar to the present-law treatment of military or civilian employees of the United States who die as a result of terrorist or military activity outside the United States to individuals who die from wounds or injury incurred as a result of: (1) the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 or April 19, 1995, or (2) exposure to anthrax on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002. These individuals (whether killed as a result of an attack or in rescue or recovery operations) generally are exempt from income tax for the year of death and for prior taxable years beginning with the taxable year prior to the taxable year in which the wounds or injury occurred. A minimum tax relief benefit of $10,000 will be provided to each eligible individual regardless of the income tax liability incurred during the eligible tax years. Exclude certain death benefits from gross income.—In general, gross income includes income from whatever source derived, including payments made as a result of the death of an individual. Under this Act, amounts paid by an employer by reason of the death of an employee attributable to wounds or injury incurred as a result of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 or April 19, 1995, or exposure to anthrax on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002, are excluded from gross income. Subject to rules prescribed by the Secretary of the Treasury, the exclusion does not apply to amounts that would have been payable if the individual had died for a reason other than the specified attacks. Provide a reduction in Federal estate taxes.— Under current law a reduction in Federal estate taxes is provided for taxable estates of U.S. citizens or residents who are active members of the U.S. Armed Forces and who are killed in action while serving in a combat zone. This estate tax reduction also applies to active service members who die as a result of wounds, disease, or injury suffered while serving in a combat zone by reason of a hazard to which the service member was subjected as an incident of such service. This Act simplifies the estate tax relief provided for combat-related deaths and generally treats individuals who die from ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES wounds or injury incurred as a result of the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001 and April 19, 1995, or as a result of exposure to anthrax on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002, in the same manner as if they were active members of the U.S. Armed Forces killed in action while serving in a combat zone or dying as a result of wounds or injury suffered while serving in a combat zone. The executor of an estate eligible for the reduction may elect not to have the reduction apply if more favorable tax treatment would be available under generally applicable rules. The reduction effectively shields the first $8.8 million of a victim’s estate from Federal estate taxes and reduces estate tax rates. Treat payments by charitable organizations as exempt payments.—Under current law, charitable organizations generally are exempt from taxation. Such organizations must be organized and operated exclusively for exempt purposes and no part of the net earnings of such organizations may inure to the benefit of any private shareholder or individual. Such organizations must serve a public rather than a private interest and generally must serve a charitable class of persons that is indefinite or of sufficient size. Under this Act, charitable organizations that make payments on or after September 11, 2001 by reason of the death, injury, wounding, or illness of an individual incurred as a result of the September 11, 2001 attacks, or as a result of exposure to anthrax occurring on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002, are not required to make a specific assessment of need for the payments to be related to the purpose or function constituting the basis for the organization’s exemption. This rule applies provided that the organization makes the payments in good faith using a reasonable and objective formula that is consistently applied. Such payments must be for public and not private benefit and must serve a charitable class. Similarly, if a tax-exempt private foundation makes payments under the conditions described above, the payment will not be subject to excise taxes on self-dealing, even if made to a person who is otherwise disqualified under current law. Provide exclusion for certain cancellations of indebtedness.—Gross income generally includes income that is realized by a debtor from the discharge of indebtedness, subject to certain exceptions for debtors in Title 11 bankruptcy cases, insolvent debtors, certain farm indebtedness, and certain real property business indebtedness. Under this Act, an exclusion from gross income is provided for any amount realized from the discharge (in whole or in part) of indebtedness if the indebtedness is discharged by reason of the death of an individual incurred as a result of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, or as a result of anthrax exposure occurring on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002. This exclusion applies to discharges made on or after September 11, 2001 and before January 1, 2002. 4. 65 FEDERAL RECEIPTS Provide general tax relief for victims of terrorist/ military actions, Presidentially-declared disasters, and certain other disasters.—This Act also: (1) clarifies that payments of compensation made under the Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization Act are excludable from gross income, (2) provides a specific exclusion from gross income for ‘‘qualified disaster relief payments,’’ (3) expands the authority of the Secretary of the Treasury to prescribe regulations concerning deadlines for performing various acts under the Internal Revenue Code and the waiver of interest on underpayments of tax liability, (4) expands the present-law exclusion from gross income for disability income of U.S. civilian employees attributable to a terrorist attack outside the United States to apply to disability income received by any individual attributable to a terrorist or military action, (5) extends the income tax relief provided under current law to U.S. military and civilian personnel who die as a result of terrorist or military activity outside the United States to such personnel regardless of where the terrorist or military action occurs, (6) modifies the tax treatment of structured settlement arrangements, (7) modifies the personal exemption deduction for certain disability trusts, and (8) expands the availability of returns and return information for purposes of investigating terrorist incidents, threats, or activities, and for analyzing intelligence concerning terrorist incidents, threats, or activities. RAILROAD RETIREMENT AND SURVIVORS’ IMPROVEMENT ACT OF 2001 The Federally administered railroad retirement system is a two-tier system consisting of social security equivalent benefits (frequently referred to as Tier I benefits) and a rail industry pension plan (frequently referred to as Tier II benefits). This Act modernizes the financing of the railroad retirement system and provides enhanced benefits to retirees and survivors. Under prior law, the Tier II payroll tax levied on the annual taxable wage base of rail industry employees was 16.1 percent for employers and 4.9 percent for employees. This Act reduces the rate for employers to 15.6 percent in 2002 and to 14.2 percent in 2003. Starting in 2004, the rates are adjusted annually and linked to the level of Tier II reserves. Under current estimates, those rates are expected to be 13.1 percent for employers and 4.9 percent for employees; the rates necessary to maintain reserves at a level sufficient to fund benefits for four years. If the reserve fund falls below the level sufficient to fund four years of benefits or increases to a level sufficient to fund more than six years of benefits, then payroll tax rates would change according to a schedule set in the Act. The rate on employers can vary between 8.2 percent and 22.1 percent, while the rate on employees can vary between zero and 4.9 percent. INVESTOR AND CAPITAL MARKETS FEE RELIEF ACT The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) collects fees for registrations, mergers, and transactions of securities. Under prior law, some of these fees were classified as receipts and others were classified as offsetting collections (outlays). The specific fees collected included the following: (1) Transaction fees equal to 1/300th of a percent (1/800th of a percent beginning in 2008) of the aggregate dollars traded through national securities exchanges, national securities associations, brokers, and dealers. (2) Registration fees equal to $200 per $1 million ($67 per $1 million beginning in 2007) of the maximum aggregate price for securities that are proposed to be offered. Additional registration fees (subject to appropriation) equal to $39 per $1 million for 2002 ($28 for 2003, $9 for 2004, $5 for 2005 and zero for 2006 and subsequent years) of the aggregate price for securities proposed to be offered. (3) Merger fees equal to $200 per $1 million of the value of securities proposed to be purchased as part of a merger. (4) Assessments on transactions of single stock futures equal to $.02 per transaction ($.0075 per transaction beginning in 2007). This Act reclassifies all of these fees as offsetting collections (outlays) and adjusts the fee rates as follows: (1) Transaction fees are reduced to $15 per $1 million of the aggregate dollars traded. For 2003 and each subsequent year, the SEC is required to establish a rate that would generate transaction fee collections equal to a target amount for that year. (2) Registration fees are reduced to $92 per $1 million of the maximum aggregate price for securities that are proposed to be offered. For 2003 and each subsequent year, the SEC is required to establish a fee rate that would generate collections equal to a target amount. (3) Merger fees are reduced to $92 per $1 million of the value of securities proposed to be purchased as part of a merger. For 2003 and each subsequent year, these fees would be equal to the rate for registration fees. (4) Assessments on transactions of single stock futures would be reduced to $0.009 per transaction for 2002 through 2006 and then fall to $0.0042 per transaction for 2007 and subsequent years. ADMINISTRATION PROPOSALS The President’s plan provides tax incentives for charitable giving, education, the disabled, health care, farmers, and the environment. It also provides tax incentives designed to increase domestic production of oil and gas and promote energy conservation, extends for two years provisions that expired in 2001, permanently extends the research and experimentation (R&E) tax credit, and permanently extends the provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 that sunset on December 31, 2010. In addition, the President intends to work with the Congress in a bipartisan manner to enact an economic security plan 66 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES that will provide an immediate and effective stimulus to the Nation’s economy. In addition, the Treasury Department will be conducting a thorough review of means of simplifying the tax code. The Administration intends to work with Congress, tax practitioners, tax administrators, and taxpayers to produce meaningful simplification. An introduction to these efforts is contained at the end of this Chapter. BIPARTISAN ECONOMIC SECURITY PLAN The President believes that it is crucial for Congress to quickly pass an economic security bill that will reinvigorate economic growth and assist workers affected by the economic downturn that has followed the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. To prevent further job losses and help displaced workers get back to work quickly, the Administration will continue to work with Congress in a bipartisan manner to enact an economic stimulus package and a worker assistance package to provide additional temporary, quick, and effective help for those who have lost their jobs TAX INCENTIVES Provide Incentives for Charitable Giving Provide charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers.—Under current law, individual taxpayers who do not itemize their deductions (nonitemizers) are not able to deduct contributions to qualified charitable organizations. The Administration proposes to allow nonitemizers to deduct charitable contributions in addition to claiming the standard deduction, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. The deduction would be phased in between 2002 and 2012, as follows: (1) Single taxpayers would be allowed a maximum deduction of $100 in 2002 through 2004, $300 in 2005 through 2011, and $500 in 2012 and subsequent years. (2) Married taxpayers filing a joint return would be allowed a maximum deduction of $200 in 2002 through 2004, $600 in 2005 through 2011, and $1,000 in 2012 and subsequent years. Deductible contributions would be subject to existing rules governing itemized charitable contributions, such as the substantiation requirements and the percentage-of-AGI limitations. Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions.—Under current law, eligible individuals may make deductible or non-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA. Pre-tax contributions and earnings in a traditional IRA are included in income when withdrawn. Effective for distributions after December 31, 2001, the Administration proposes to allow individuals who have attained age 591⁄2 to exclude from gross income IRA distributions made directly to a charitable organization. The exclusion would apply without regard to the percentage-of-AGI limitations that apply to deductible charitable contributions. The exclusion would apply only to the extent the individual receives no return benefit in exchange for the transfer, and no charitable deduction would be allowed with respect to any amount that is excludable from income under this provision. Raise the cap on corporate charitable contributions.—Current law limits deductible charitable contributions by corporations to 10 percent of net income (calculated before the deduction of the charitable contributions and certain other deductions). The Administration proposes to increase the limit on deductible charitable contributions by corporations from 10 percent to 15 percent of net income, effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory.—A taxpayer’s deduction for charitable contributions of inventory generally is limited to the taxpayer’s basis (typically cost) in the inventory. However, for certain contributions of inventory, C corporations may claim an enhanced deduction equal to the lesser of: (1) basis plus one half of the fair market value in excess of basis, or (2) two times basis. To be eligible for the enhanced deduction, the contributed property generally must be inventory of the taxpayer, contributed to a charitable organization, and the donee must (1) use the property consistent with the donee’s exempt purpose solely for the care of the ill, the needy, or infants, (2) not transfer the property in exchange for money, other property, or services, and (3) provide the taxpayer a written statement that the donee’s use of the property will be consistent with such requirements. To use the enhanced deduction, the taxpayer must establish that the fair market value of the donated item exceeds basis. Under the Administration’s proposal, which is designed to encourage contributions of food inventory to charitable organizations, any taxpayer engaged in a trade or business would be eligible to claim an enhanced deduction for donations of food inventory. The enhanced deduction for donations of food inventory would be increased to the lesser of: (1) fair market value, or (2) two times basis. However, to ensure consistent treatment of all businesses claiming an enhanced deduction for donations of food inventory, the enhanced deduction for qualified food donations by S corporations and non-corporate taxpayers would be limited to 15 percent of net income from the trade or business. A special provision would allow taxpayers with a zero or low basis in the qualified food donation (e.g., taxpayers that use the cash method of accounting for purchases and sales, and taxpayers that are not required to capitalize indirect costs) to assume a basis equal to 25 percent of fair market value. The enhanced deduction would be available only for donations of ‘‘apparently wholesome food’’ (food intended for human consumption that meets all quality and labeling standards imposed by Federal, State, and local laws and regulations, even though the food may not be readily marketable due to appearance, age, freshness, grade, size, surplus, or other conditions). The fair market value of ‘‘apparently wholesome food’’ that cannot or will not be 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS sold solely due to internal standards of the taxpayer or lack of market, would be determined by taking into account the price at which the same or substantially the same food items are sold by the taxpayer at the time of the contribution or, if not sold at such time, in the recent past. These proposed changes in the enhanced deduction for donations of food inventory would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations.—Under current law, private foundations that are exempt from Federal income tax are subject to a two-percent excise tax on their net investment income (one-percent if certain requirements are met). The tax on private foundations that are not exempt from Federal income tax, such as certain charitable trusts, is equal to the excess of the sum of the excise tax that would have been imposed if the foundation were tax exempt and the amount of the unrelated business income tax that would have been imposed if the foundation were tax exempt, over the income tax imposed on the foundation. To encourage increased charitable activity and simplify the tax laws, the Administration proposes to replace the two rates of tax on the net investment income of private foundations that are exempt from Federal income tax with a single tax rate of one percent. The tax on private foundations not exempt from Federal income tax would be equal to the excess of the sum of the one-percent excise tax that would have been imposed if the foundation were tax exempt and the amount of the unrelated business income tax what would have been imposed if the foundation were tax exempt, over the income tax imposed on the foundation. The proposed change would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts.—A charitable remainder annuity trust is a trust that is required to pay, at least annually, a fixed dollar amount of at least five percent of the initial value of the trust to a noncharity for the life of an individual or for a period of 20 years or less, with the remainder passing to charity. A charitable remainder unitrust is a trust that generally is required to pay, at least annually, a fixed percentage of at least five percent of the fair market value of the trust’s assets determined at least annually to a non-charity for the life of an individual or for a period of 20 years or less, with the remainder passing to charity. A trust does not qualify as a charitable remainder annuity if the annuity for a year is greater than 50 percent of the initial fair market value of the trust’s assets. A trust does not qualify as a charitable remainder unitrust if the percentage of assets that are required to be distributed at least annually is greater than 50 percent. A trust does not qualify as a charitable remainder annuity trust or a charitable remainder unitrust unless the value of the remainder interest in the trust is at least 10 percent of the value of the 67 assets contributed to the trust. Distributions from a charitable remainder annuity trust or charitable remainder unitrust, which are included in the income of the beneficiary for the year that the amount is required to be distributed, are treated in the following order as: (1) ordinary income to the extent of the trust’s current and previously undistributed ordinary income for the trust’s year in which the distribution occurred, (2) capital gains to the extent of the trust’s current capital gain and previously undistributed capital gain for the trust’s year in which the distribution occurred, (3) other income to the extent of the trust’s current and previously undistributed other income for the trust’s year in which the distribution occurred, and (4) corpus (trust principal). Charitable remainder annuity trusts and charitable remainder unitrusts are exempt from Federal income tax; however, such trusts lose their income tax exemption for any year in which they have unrelated business taxable income. Any taxes imposed on the trust are required to be allocated to trust corpus. The Administration proposes to levy a 100-percent excise tax on the unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts, in lieu of removing the Federal income tax exemption for any year in which unrelated business taxable income is incurred. This change, which is a more appropriate remedy than loss of tax exemption, is proposed to become effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001, regardless of when the trust was created. Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property.—Under current law, each shareholder in an S corporation separately accounts for his/her pro rata share of the S corporation’s charitable contributions in determining his/ her income tax liability. A shareholder’s basis in the stock of the S corporation must be reduced by the amount of his/her pro-rata share of the S corporation’s charitable contribution. In order to preserve the benefit of providing a charitable contribution deduction for contributions of appreciated property and to prevent the recognition of gain on the contributed property on the disposition of the S corporation stock, the Administration proposes to allow a shareholder in an S corporation to increase his/her basis in the stock of an S corporation by an amount equal to the excess of the shareholder’s pro rata share of the S corporation’s charitable contribution over the stockholder’s pro rata share of the adjusted basis of the contributed property. The proposal would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Allow expedited consideration of applications for exempt status.—The Administration proposes to allow expedited consideration of applications for exempt status by organizations formed for the primary purpose of providing social services to the poor and the needy. To be eligible, the organization must have applied for a grant under a Federal, State, or local program that provides funding for social service programs on or be- 68 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES fore the day that the organization applies to the Secretary of the Treasury for determination of its exempt status. Organizations that demonstrate that under the terms of the grant program exempt status is required before the organization is eligible to apply for a grant would also qualify for expedited consideration. Each organization would be required to include with its application for exempt status a copy of its completed grant application. The proposal would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Strengthen and Reform Education Provide refundable tax credit for certain costs of attending a different school for pupils assigned to failing public schools.—Under the Administration’s proposal, a refundable tax credit would be allowed for 50 percent of the first $5,000 of qualifying elementary and secondary education expenses incurred during the taxable year with respect to enrollment of a qualifying student in a qualifying school. Qualifying students would be those who, for a given school year, would normally attend a public school determined by the State as not having made ‘‘adequate yearly progress’’ under the terms of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act as amended by the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. A qualifying student in one school year generally would qualify for an additional school year even if the school normally attended made adequate yearly progress by the beginning of the second school year. A qualifying school would be any public school making adequate yearly progress or private elementary or secondary school. Qualifying expenses generally would be tuition, required fees, and transportation costs incurred by the taxpayer in connection with the attendance at a qualifying school. The proposal would be effective with respect to expenses incurred beginning with the 2002–2003 school year through the 2006–2007 school year. Allow teachers to deduct out-of-pocket classroom expenses.—Under current law, teachers who incur unreimbursed, job-related expenses may deduct those expenses to the extent that when combined with other miscellaneous itemized deductions they exceed 2 percent of AGI, but only if the teacher itemizes deductions (i.e., does not use the standard deduction). Effective for expenses incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003, the Administration proposes to allow certain teachers and other elementary and secondary school professionals to treat up to $400 in qualified out-of-pocket classroom expenses as a non-itemized deduction (above-the-line deduction). Unreimbursed expenditures for certain books, supplies and equipment related to classroom instruction and for certain professional training programs would qualify for the deduction. Invest in Health Care Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance.—Current law provides a tax preference for employer-provided group health insurance plans, but not for individually purchased health insurance coverage except to the extent that deductible medical expenses exceed 7.5 percent of AGI or the individual has self-employment income. The Administration proposes to make health insurance more affordable for individuals not covered by an employer plan or a public program. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2002, a new refundable tax credit would be provided for the cost of health insurance purchased by individuals under age 65. The credit would provide a subsidy for a percentage of the health insurance premium, up to a maximum includable premium. The maximum subsidy percentage would be 90 percent for lowincome taxpayers and would phase down with income. The maximum credit would be $1,000 for an adult and $500 for a child. The credit would be phased out at $30,000 for single taxpayers and $60,000 for families purchasing a family policy. Individuals could claim the tax credit for health insurance premiums paid as part of the normal tax-filing process. Alternatively, beginning July 1, 2003, the tax credit would be available in advance at the time the individual purchases health insurance. The advance credit would reduce the premium paid by the individual to the health insurer, and the health insurer would be reimbursed directly by the Department of Treasury for the amount of the advance credit. Eligibility for an advance credit would be based on an individual’s prior year tax return. To qualify for the credit, a health insurance policy would have to include coverage for catastrophic medical expenses. Qualifying insurance could be purchased in the individual market. Qualifying health insurance could also be purchased through private purchasing groups, State-sponsored insurance purchasing pools, and high-risk pools. Such groups may help reduce health insurance costs and increase coverage options for individuals, including older and higher-risk individuals. Individuals would not be allowed to claim the credit and make a contribution to an Archer Medical Savings Account (MSA) for the same taxable year. Provide an above-the-line deduction for longterm care insurance premiums.—Current law provides a tax preference for employer-paid long-term care insurance. However, the vast majority of the long-term care insurance market consists of individually purchased policies, for which no tax preference is provided except to the extent that deductible medical expenses exceed 7.5 percent of AGI or the individual has selfemployment income. Premiums on qualified long-term care insurance are deductible as a medical expense, subject to annual dollar limitations that increase with age. The Administration proposes to make individually- 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS purchased long-term care insurance (the vast majority of the long-term care insurance market) more affordable by creating an above-the-line deduction for qualified long-term care insurance premiums. To qualify for the deduction, the long-term care insurance would be required to meet certain standards providing consumer protections. The deduction would be available to taxpayers who individually purchase qualified long-term care insurance and to those who pay at least 50 percent of the cost of employer-provided coverage. The deduction would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003 but would be phased in over five years. The deduction would be subject to current law annual dollar limitations on qualified long-term care insurance premiums. Allow up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement to be carried forward to the next year.—Under current law, unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement under a cafeteria plan for a particular year revert to the employer at the end of the year. Effective for plan years beginning after December 31, 2003, the Administration proposes to allow up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement at the end of a particular year to be carried forward to the next plan year. Provide additional choice with regard to unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement.—In addition to the proposed carryforward of unused benefits (see preceding discussion), the Administration proposes to allow up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement at the end of a particular year to be distributed to the participant as taxable income, contributed to an Archer MSA, or contributed to the employer’s 401(k), 403(b), or governmental 457(b) retirement plan. Amounts distributed to the participant would be subject to income tax withholding and employment taxes. Amounts contributed to an Archer MSA or retirement plan would be subject to the normal rules applicable to elective contributions to the receiving plan or account. The proposal would be effective for plan years beginning after December 31, 2003. Permanently extend and reform Archer Medical Savings Accounts.—Current law allows only self-employed individuals and employees of small firms to establish Archer MSAs, and caps the number of accounts at 750,000. In addition to other requirements, (1) individuals who establish MSAs must be covered by a highdeductible health plan (and no other plan) with a deductible of at least $1,650 but not greater than $2,500 for policies covering a single person and a deductible of at least $3,300 but not greater than $4,950 in all other cases, (2) tax-preferred contributions are limited to 65 percent of the deductible for single policies and 75 percent of the deductible for other policies, and (3) either an individual or an employer, but not both, may make a tax-preferred contribution to an MSA for a par- 69 ticular year. The Administration proposes to permanently extend the MSA program, which is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2002, and to modify the program to make it more consistent with currently available health plans. Effective after December 31, 2002, the Administration proposes to remove the 750,000 cap on the number of accounts. In addition, the program would be reformed by (1) expanding eligibility to include all individuals and employees of firms of all sizes covered by a high-deductible health plan, (2) modifying the definition of high deductible to permit a deductible as low as $1,000 for policies covering a single person and $2,000 in all other cases, (3) increasing allowable tax-preferred contributions to 100 percent of the deductible, (4) allowing tax-preferred contributions by both employers and employees for a particular year, up to the applicable maximum, (5) allowing contributions to MSAs under cafeteria plans, and (6) permitting qualified plans to provide, without counting against the deductible, up to $100 of coverage for allowable preventive services per covered individual each year. Individuals would not be allowed to make a contribution to an MSA and claim the proposed refundable tax credit for health insurance premiums for the same taxable year. Provide an additional personal exemption to home caretakers of family members.—Current law provides a tax deduction for certain long-term care expenses. In addition, taxpayers are allowed to claim exemptions for themselves (and their spouses, if married) and dependents who they support. However, neither provision may meet the needs of taxpayers who provide long-term care in their own home for close family members. Effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003, the Administration proposes to provide an additional personal exemption to taxpayers who care for certain qualified family members who reside with the taxpayer in the household maintained by the taxpayer. A taxpayer is considered to maintain a household only if he/she furnishes over half of the annual cost of maintaining the household. Qualified family members would include any individual with long-term care needs who (1) is the spouse of the taxpayer or an ancestor of the taxpayer or the spouse of such an ancestor and (2) is a member of the taxpayer’s household for the entire year. An individual would be considered to have long-term care needs if he or she were certified by a licensed physician (prior to the filing of a return claiming the exemption) as being unable for at least 180 consecutive days to perform at least two activities of daily living without substantial assistance from another individual due to a loss of functional capacity. Alternatively, an individual would be considered to have long-term care needs if he or she were certified by a licensed physician as, for at least 180 consecutive days, (1) requiring substantial supervision to be protected from threats to his or her own health and safety due to severe cognitive impairment and (2) being unable to perform at least one activity of daily living or being unable to engage in age appropriate activities. 70 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Assist Americans With Disabilities Exclude from income the value of employer-provided computers, software and peripherals.—The Administration proposes to allow individuals with disabilities to exclude from income the value of employerprovided computers, software or other office equipment that are necessary for the individual to perform work for the employer at home. To qualify for the exclusion, the employee would be required to make substantial use of the equipment (relative to overall use) performing work for his or her employer. However, unlike current law, which limits the exclusion to the extent that the equipment is used to perform work for the employer, the proposed exclusion would apply to all use of such equipment, including use by the employee for personal or non-employer-related trade or business purposes. Employees would be required to provide their employer with a certification from a licensed physician that they meet eligibility criteria. The proposal would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003. Help Farmers and Fishermen Manage Economic Downturns Establish Farm, Fish and Ranch Risk Management (FFARRM) savings accounts.—Current law does not provide for the elective deferral of farm or fishing income. However, farmers can elect to average their farming income over a three-year period, and farmers may carry back net operating losses over the five previous years. In addition, taxes can be deferred on certain forms of income, including disaster payments, crop insurance and proceeds from emergency livestock sales. The Administration proposes to allow up to 20 percent of taxable income attributable to an eligible farming or fishing business to be contributed to a FFARRM savings account each year and deducted from income. Earnings on contributions would be taxable as earned and distributions from the account (except those attributable to earnings on contributions) would be included in gross income. Any amount not distributed within five years of deposit would be deemed to have been distributed and included in gross income; in addition, such distributions would be subject to a 10-percent surtax. The proposal would be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2003. Increase Housing Opportunities Provide tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing.—The Administration proposes to provide annual tax credit authority to States (including U.S. possessions) designed to promote the development of affordable single-family housing in low-income urban and rural neighborhoods. Beginning in calendar year 2003, first-year credit authority of $1.75 per capita (indexed annually for inflation thereafter) would be made available to each State. State housing agencies would award first-year credits to single-family housing units comprising a project located in a census tract with median income equal to 80 percent or less of area median income. Units in condominiums and cooperatives could qualify as single-family housing. Credits would be awarded as a fixed amount for individual units comprising a project. The present value of the credits, determined on the date of a qualifying sale, could not exceed 50 percent of the cost of constructing a new home or rehabilitating an existing property. The taxpayer (developer or investor partnership) owning the housing unit immediately prior to the sale to a qualified buyer would be eligible to claim credits over a 5-year period beginning on the date of sale. Eligible homebuyers would be required to have incomes equal to 80 percent or less of area median income. Technical features of the provision would follow similar features of current law with respect to the low-income housing tax credit and mortgage revenue bonds. Encourage Saving Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs).—The Administration proposes to allow eligible individuals to make contributions to a new savings vehicle, the Individual Development Account, which would be set up and administered by qualified financial institutions, nonprofit organizations, or Indian tribes (qualified entities). Citizens or legal residents of the United States between the ages of 18 and 60 who cannot be claimed as a dependent on another taxpayer’s return, are not students, and who meet certain income limitations would be eligible to establish and contribute to an IDA. A single taxpayer would be eligible to establish and contribute to an IDA if his/her modified AGI in the preceding taxable year did not exceed $20,000 ($30,000 for heads of household, and $40,000 for married taxpayers filing a joint return). These thresholds would be indexed annually for inflation beginning in 2004. Qualified entities that set up and administer IDAs would be required to match, dollar-for-dollar, the first $500 contributed by an eligible individual to an IDA in a taxable year. Qualified entities would be allowed a 100 percent tax credit for up to $500 in annual matching contributions to each IDA, and a $50 tax credit for each IDA maintained at the end of a taxable year with a balance of not less that $100 (excluding the taxable year in which the account was established). Matching contributions and the earnings on those contributions would be deposited in a separate ‘‘parallel account.’’ Contributions to an IDA by an eligible individual would not be deductible, and earnings on those contributions would be included in income. Matching contributions by qualified entities and the earnings on those contributions would be tax-free. Withdrawals from the parallel account may be made only for qualified purposes (higher education, the first-time purchase of a home, business start-up, and qualified rollovers). Withdrawals from the IDA for other than qualified purposes may result in the forfeiture of some or all matching contributions and the earnings on those contributions. The proposal would be effective for contributions 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS made after December 31, 2002 and before January 1, 2010, to the first 900,000 IDA accounts opened before January 1, 2008. Protect the Environment Permanently extend expensing of brownfields remediation costs.—Taxpayers may elect to treat certain environmental remediation expenditures that would otherwise be chargeable to capital account as deductible in the year paid or incurred. Under current law, the ability to deduct such expenditures expires with respect to expenditures paid or incurred after December 31, 2003. The Administration proposes to permanently extend this provision, facilitating its use by businesses to undertake projects that may extend beyond the current expiration date and be uncertain in overall duration. Exclude 50 percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes.—The Administration proposes to create a new incentive for private, voluntary land protection. This incentive is a cost-effective, non-regulatory approach to conservation. Under the proposal, when land (or an interest in land or water) is sold for conservation purposes, only 50 percent of any gain would be included in the seller’s income. To be eligible for the exclusion, the sale may be either to a government agency or to a qualified conservation organization, and the buyer must supply a letter of intent that the acquisition will serve conservation purposes. In addition, the taxpayer or a member of the taxpayer’s family must have owned the property for the three years immediately preceding the sale. The provision would be effective for sales taking place after December 31, 2003. Increase Energy Production and Promote Energy Conservation Extend and modify the tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources.—Taxpayers are provided a 1.5-cent-per-kilowatt-hour tax credit, adjusted for inflation after 1992, for electricity produced from wind, closed-loop biomass (organic material from a plant grown exclusively for use at a qualified facility to produce electricity), and poultry waste. To qualify for the credit, the electricity must be sold to an unrelated third party and must be produced during the first 10 years of production at a facility placed in service before January 1, 2002. The Administration proposes to extend the credit for electricity produced from wind and biomass to facilities placed in service before January 1, 2005. In addition, eligible biomass sources would be expanded to include certain biomass from forest-related resources, agricultural sources, and other specified sources. Special rules would apply to biomass facilities placed in service before January 1, 2002. Electricity produced at such facilities from newly eligible sources would be eligible for the credit only from January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2004, and at a rate 71 equal to 60 percent of the generally applicable rate. Electricity produced from newly eligible biomass cofired in coal plants would also be eligible for the credit only from January 1, 2002 through December 31, 2004, and at a rate equal to 30 percent of the generally applicable rate. The Administration also proposes to modify the rules relating to governmental financing of qualified facilities. There would be no percentage reduction in the credit for governmental financing attributable to tax-exempt bonds. Instead, such financing would reduce the credit only to the extent necessary to offset the value of the tax exemption. The rules relating to leased facilities would also be modified to permit the lessee, rather than the owner, to claim the credit. Provide tax credit for residential solar energy systems.—Current law provides a 10-percent investment tax credit to businesses for qualifying equipment that uses solar energy to generate electricity; to heat, cool or provide hot water for use in a structure; or to provide solar process heat. A credit currently is not provided for nonbusiness purchases of solar energy equipment. The Administration proposes a new tax credit for individuals who purchase solar energy equipment to generate electricity (photovoltaic equipment) or heat water (solar water heating equipment) for use in a dwelling unit that the individual uses as a residence, provided the equipment is used exclusively for purposes other than heating swimming pools. The proposed nonrefundable credit would be equal to 15 percent of the cost of the equipment and its installation; each individual taxpayer would be allowed a maximum credit of $2,000 for photovoltaic equipment and $2,000 for solar water heating equipment. The credit would apply to photovoltaic equipment placed in service after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2008 and to solar water heating equipment placed in service after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2006. Modify treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds.—Under current law, deductible contributions to nuclear decommissioning funds are limited to the amount included in the taxpayer’s cost of service for ratemaking purposes. For deregulated utilities, this limitation may result in the denial of any deduction for contributions to a nuclear decommissioning fund. The Administration proposes to repeal this limitation. Also under current law, deductible contributions are not permitted to exceed the amount the IRS determines to be necessary to provide for level funding of an amount equal to the taxpayer’s post-1983 decommissioning costs. The Administration proposes to permit funding of all decommissioning costs through deductible contributions. Any portion of these additional contributions relating to pre-1983 costs that exceeds the amount previously deducted (other than under the nuclear decommissioning fund rules) or excluded from the taxpayer’s gross income on account of the taxpayer’s liability for decommissioning costs, would be allowed as a deduction ratably over the remaining useful life of the nuclear power plant. 72 The Administration’s proposal would also permit taxpayers to make deductible contributions to a qualified fund after the end of the nuclear power plant’s estimated useful life and would provide that nuclear decommissioning costs are deductible when paid. These changes in the treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds are proposed to be effective for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001. Provide tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles.—Under current law, a 10-percent tax credit up to $4,000 is provided for the cost of a qualified electric vehicle. The full amount of the credit is available for purchases prior to 2002. The credit begins to phase down in 2002 and is not available after 2004. A qualified electric vehicle is a motor vehicle that is powered primarily by an electric motor drawing current from rechargeable batteries, fuel cells, or other portable sources of electric current, the original use of which commences with the taxpayer, and that is acquired for use by the taxpayer and not for resale. Electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles (those that have more than one source of power on board the vehicle) have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. To encourage the purchase of such vehicles, the Administration is proposing the following tax credits: (1) A credit of up to $4,000 would be provided for the purchase of qualified hybrid vehicles after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2008. The amount of the credit would depend on the percentage of maximum available power provided by the rechargeable energy storage system and the amount by which the vehicle’s fuel economy exceeds the 2000 model year city fuel economy. (2) A credit of up to $8,000 would be provided for the purchase of new qualified fuel cell vehicles after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2008. A minimum credit of $4,000 would be provided, which would increase as the vehicle’s fuel efficiency exceeded the 2000 model year city fuel economy, reaching a maximum credit of $8,000 if the vehicle achieved at least 300 percent of the 2000 model year city fuel economy. Provide tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas.—Taxpayers that produce gas from biomass (including landfill methane) are eligible for a tax credit equal to $3 per barrel-of-oil equivalent (the amount of gas that has a British thermal unit content of 5.8 million), adjusted by an inflation adjustment factor for the calendar year in which the sale occurs. To qualify for the credit, the gas must be produced domestically from a facility placed in service by the taxpayer before July 1, 1998, pursuant to a written binding contract in effect before January 1, 1997. In addition, the gas must be sold to an unrelated person before January 1, 2008. The Administration proposes to extend the credit to apply to landfill methane produced from a facility (or portion of a facility) placed in service after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2011, and sold (or used to produce electricity that is sold) before January 1, 2011. The credit for fuel produced at land- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES fills subject to EPA’s 1996 New Source Performance Standards/Emissions Guidelines would be limited to two-thirds of the otherwise applicable amount beginning on January 1, 2008, if any portion of the facility for producing fuel at the landfill was placed in service before July 1, 1998, and beginning on January 1, 2002, in all other cases. Provide tax credit for combined heat and power property.—Combined heat and power (CHP) systems are used to produce electricity (and/or mechanical power) and usable thermal energy from a single primary energy source. Depreciation allowances for CHP property vary by asset use and capacity. No income tax credit is provided under current law for investment in CHP property. CHP systems utilize thermal energy that is otherwise wasted in producing electricity by more conventional methods and achieve a greater level of overall energy efficiency, thereby lessening the consumption of primary fossil fuels, lowering total energy costs, and reducing carbon emissions. To encourage increased energy efficiency by accelerating planned investments and inducing additional investments in such systems, the Administration is proposing a 10-percent investment credit for qualified CHP systems with an electrical capacity in excess of 50 kilowatts or with a capacity to produce mechanical power in excess of 67 horsepower (or an equivalent combination of electrical and mechanical energy capacities). A qualified CHP system would be required to produce at least 20 percent of its total useful energy in the form of thermal energy and at least 20 percent of its total useful energy in the form of electrical or mechanical power (or a combination thereof) and would also be required to satisfy an energy-efficiency standard. For CHP systems with an electrical capacity in excess of 50 megawatts (or a mechanical energy capacity in excess of 67,000 horsepower), the total energy efficiency would have to exceed 70 percent. For smaller systems, the total energy efficiency would have to exceed 60 percent. Investments in qualified CHP assets that are otherwise assigned cost recovery periods of less than 15 years would be eligible for the credit, provided that the taxpayer elected to treat such property as having a 22-year class life. The credit, which would be treated as an energy credit under the investment credit component of the general business credit, and could not be used in conjunction with any other credit for the same equipment, would apply to investments in CHP property placed in service after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2007. Provide excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol.—Under current law an income tax credit and an excise tax exemption are provided for ethanol and renewable source methanol used as a fuel. In general, the income tax credit for ethanol is 53 cents per gallon, but small ethanol producers (those producing less than 30 million gallons of ethanol per year) qualify for a credit of 63 cents per gallon on the first 15 million gallons of ethanol produced in a year. A credit of 60 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS cents per gallon is allowed for renewable source methanol. As an alternative to the income tax credit, gasohol blenders may claim a gasoline tax exemption of 53 cents for each gallon of ethanol and 60 cents for each gallon of renewable source methanol that is blended into qualifying gasohol. The rates for the ethanol credit and exemption are each reduced by 1 cent per gallon in 2003 and by an additional 1 cent per gallon in 2005. The income tax credit expires on December 31, 2007 and the excise tax exemption expires on September 30, 2007. Neither the credit nor the exemption apply during any period in which motor fuel taxes dedicated to the Highway Trust Fund are limited to 4.3 cents per gallon. The Administration proposes to extend both the income tax credit and the excise tax exemption through December 31, 2010. The current law rule providing that neither the credit nor the exemption apply during any period in which motor fuel taxes dedicated to the Highway Trust Fund are limited to 4.3 cents per gallon would be retained. Promote Trade Extend and expand Andean trade preferences.— The Administration proposes to renew and enhance the Andean Trade Preference Act (ATPA), which expired on December 4, 2001, through December 31, 2005. The ATPA, which was enacted in 1991, was designed to provide economic alternatives for Bolivia, Columbia, Ecuador, and Peru in their fight against narcotics production and trafficking. Initiate a new trade preference program for Southeast Europe.—The Administration is proposing the Southeast Europe Trade Preference Act (SETPA), which would initiate a new five-year trade preference program for Southeast Europe, beginning October 1, 2002. The program is designed to rebuild the economies of Southeast Europe that were harmed by recent ethnic conflict in the area and will fulfill a commitment made by the United States, along with our European partners, when we signed the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe. Implement free trade agreements with Chile and Singapore.—Free trade agreements are expected to be completed with Chile and Singapore in 2002, with tenyear implementation to begin in fiscal year 2003. These agreements will benefit U.S. producers and consumers, as well as strengthen the economies of Chile and Singapore. In addition, these agreements will establish precedents in our market opening efforts in two important and dynamic regions - Latin America and Southeast Asia. Improve Tax Administration Modify the IRS Restructuring and Reform Act of 1998 (RRA98).—The proposed modification to RRA98 is comprised of six parts. The first part modifies employee infractions subject to mandatory termination 73 and permits a broader range of available penalties. It strengthens taxpayer privacy while reducing employee anxiety resulting from unduly harsh discipline or unfounded allegations. The second part adopts measures to curb frivolous submissions and filings that are intended to impede or delay tax administration. The third part allows IRS to terminate installment agreements when taxpayers fail to make timely tax deposits and file tax returns on current liabilities. The fourth part streamlines jurisdiction over collection due process cases in the Tax Court, thereby reducing the cycle time for certain collection due process cases. The fifth part permits taxpayers to enter into installment agreements that do not guarantee full payment of liability over the life of the agreement. It allows the IRS to enter into agreements with taxpayers that desire to resolve their tax obligations but cannot make payments large enough to satisfy their entire liability and for whom an offer in compromise is not a viable alternative. The sixth part eliminates the requirement that the IRS Chief Counsel provide an opinion for any accepted offerin-compromise of unpaid tax (including interest and penalties) equal to or exceeding $50,000. This proposal requires that the Treasury Secretary establish standards to determine when an opinion is appropriate. Initiate IRS cost savings measures.—The Administration has six proposals to improve IRS efficiency and performance from current resources. The first proposal permits the IRS to use certificates of mailing as an alternative to certified mail for notices and letters that currently require such mailing. The second proposal eliminates the requirement that notices of an intent to levy and right to a pre-levy hearing be sent with return receipt requested, but retains the requirement that such notices be sent by certified or registered mail or by first-class mail evidenced by a certificate of mailing. These two proposals reduce postal costs while retaining proof of first-class mailing. The third proposal eliminates the requirement that dual notices be sent to joint filers who reside at the same address. The fourth proposal treats as nullities certain tax returns that the Criminal Investigation Division determines contain insufficient information to compute tax, contain false information, or lack a valid signature. Under this proposal, such returns that have been filed to impede or delay tax administration are excluded from deficiency procedures. The fifth proposal modifies the way that Financial Management Services (FMS) recovers its transaction fees for processing IRS levies by permitting FMS to retain a portion of the amount collected before transmitting the balance to the IRS. The offset amount would be included as part of the 15-percent limit on levies against income and would also be credited against the taxpayer’s liability, thereby reducing Government transactions costs. Finally, the sixth proposal extends the April filing date for electronically filed tax returns by at least ten days to help encourage the growth of electronic filing. 74 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Reform Unemployment Insurance Reform unemployment insurance administrative financing.—Current law funds the administrative costs of the unemployment insurance system and related programs out of the Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA) paid by employers. FUTA is set at 0.8 percent of the first $7,000 in covered wages, which includes a 0.2 percent surtax scheduled to expire in 2007. State unemployment taxes are deposited into the Unemployment Trust Fund and used by States to pay unemployment benefits. Under current law, FUTA balances in excess of statutory ceilings are distributed to the States to pay unemployment benefits or the administrative costs of the system (these are known as Reed Act transfers). The Administration supports an immediate distribution of $9 billion in Reed Act funds as part of a bipartisan economic security plan. This would take the place of the smaller Reed Act transfer projected for October 1, 2002. In addition, the Administration has a comprehensive proposal to reform the administrative financing of this system. It proposes to eliminate the FUTA surtax in 2003, and make additional rate cuts to achieve a net FUTA tax rate of 0.2 percent in 2007. The proposal will transfer administrative funding control to the States in 2005 and allow them to use their benefit taxes to pay these costs. Federal administrative grants to the States will be significantly reduced. During the transition to State financing, special Reed Act distributions will be made to the States, and additional Federal funds for administrative expenses will be provided. include cash wages plus the cash value of certain employer-paid health, dependent care, and educational fringe benefits. The minimum employment period that employees must work before employers can claim the credit is 400 hours. The Administration proposes to extend the credit for two years, to apply to individuals who begin work after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2004. Extend minimum tax relief for individuals.—A temporary provision of prior law permits nonrefundable personal tax credits to be offset against both the regular tax and the alternative minimum tax. The temporary provision expires after taxable year 2001. The Administration is concerned that the AMT may limit the benefit of personal tax credits and impose financial and compliance burdens on taxpayers who have few, if any, tax preference items and who were not the originally intended targets of the AMT. The Administration proposes to extend minimum tax relief for nonrefundable personal tax credits two years, to apply to taxable years 2002 and 2003. The proposed extension does not apply to the child credit, the earned income tax credit or the adoption credit, which were provided AMT relief through December 31, 2010 under the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, as explained above. The refundable portion of the child credit and the earned income tax credit are also allowed against the AMT through December 31, 2010. Extend the work opportunity tax credit.—The work opportunity tax credit provides an incentive for employers to expand the number of entry level positions for individuals from certain targeted groups. The credit generally applies to the first $6,000 of wages paid to several categories of economically disadvantaged or handicapped workers. The credit rate is 25 percent of qualified wages for employment of at least 120 hours but less than 400 hours and 40 percent for employment of 400 or more hours. The Administration proposes to extend the credit for two years, making the credit available for workers hired after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2004. Extend exceptions provided under subpart F for certain active financing income.—Under the Subpart F rules, certain U.S. shareholders of a controlled foreign corporation (CFC) are subject to U.S. tax currently on certain income earned by the CFC, whether or not such income is distributed to the shareholders. The income subject to current inclusion under the subpart F rules includes, among other things, ‘‘foreign personal holding company income’’ and insurance income. Foreign personal holding company income generally includes many types of income derived by a financial service company, such as dividends; interest; royalties; rents; annuities; net gains from the sale of certain property, including securities, commodities and foreign currency; and income from notional principal contracts and securities lending activities. For taxable years beginning before 2002, certain income derived in the active conduct of a banking, financing, insurance, or similar business is excepted from Subpart F. The Administration proposes to extend the exception for two years, to apply to taxable years beginning in 2002 and 2003. Extend the welfare-to-work tax credit.—The welfare-to-work tax credit entitles employers to claim a tax credit for hiring certain recipients of long-term family assistance. The purpose of the credit is to expand job opportunities for persons making the transition from welfare to work. The credit is 35 percent of the first $10,000 of eligible wages in the first year of employment and 50 percent of the first $10,000 of eligible wages in the second year of employment. Eligible wages Extend suspension of net income limitation on percentage depletion from marginal oil and gas wells.—Taxpayers are allowed to recover their investment in oil and gas wells through depletion deductions. For certain properties, deductions may be determined using the percentage depletion method; however, in any year, the amount deducted generally may not exceed 100 percent of the net income from the property. For taxable years beginning after December 31, 1997 and EXPIRING PROVISIONS Extend Provisions that Expired in 2001 for Two Years 4. 75 FEDERAL RECEIPTS before January 1, 2002, domestic oil and gas production from ‘‘marginal’’ properties is exempt from the 100-percent of net income limitation. The Administration proposes to extend the exemption to apply to taxable years beginning after December 31, 2001 and before January 1, 2004. Extend Generalized System of Preferences (GSP).—Under GSP, duty-free access is provided to over 4,000 items from eligible developing countries that meet certain worker rights, intellectual property protection, and other criteria. The Administration proposes to extend this program, which expired after September 30, 2001, through September 30, 2003. Extend authority to issue Qualified Zone Academy Bonds.—Prior law allows State and local governments to issue ‘‘qualified zone academy bonds,’’ the interest on which is effectively paid by the Federal government in the form of an annual income tax credit. The proceeds of the bonds must be used for teacher training, purchases of equipment, curriculum development, or rehabilitation and repairs at certain public school facilities. A nationwide total of $400 million of qualified zone academy bonds was authorized to be issued in each of calendar years 1998 through 2001. In addition, unused authority arising in 1998 and 1999 may be carried forward for up to three years and unused authority arising in 2000 and 2001 may be carried forward for up to two years. The Administration proposes to authorize the issuance of an additional $400 million of qualified zone academy bonds in each of calendar years 2002 and 2003. Permanently Extend Expiring Provisions Permanently extend provisions expiring in 2010.—As explained in the discussion of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001, most of the provisions of the Act sunset on December 31, 2010. The Administration proposes to permanently extend these provisions. Permanently extend the research and experimentation (R&E) tax credit.—The Administration proposes to permanently extend the 20-percent tax credit for qualified research and experimentation expenditures above a base amount and the alternative incremental credit, which are scheduled to expire on June 30, 2004. TAX SIMPLIFICATION In addition to the proposals summarized above, the Administration is developing both short-term and longer-term tax simplification proposals. The project to develop short-term proposals, which is described below, focuses on immediately achievable reforms of the current tax system, while the longer-term project focuses on more fundamental reforms of the tax system. As many recent studies and proposals have highlighted, the U.S. income tax system is extraordinarily complex. Many taxpayers and businesses face significant challenges in understanding the tax laws, keeping required records, and filling out numerous complicated and detailed tax forms, which often require working through lengthy abstruse instructions and cumbersome calculations. Fortunately, our tax system is not complicated for everyone. Millions of taxpayers who have relatively uncomplicated financial and family circumstances and are able to file form 1040EZ, for example, avoid most of the complexity of the tax system. But for many others, coping with the tax system is daunting. The need to deal with complexities in the tax system is not limited to multinational corporations or high-income investors with complex financial assets; many taxpayers facing overwhelmingly complicated tax situations are lower- and middle-income families, single mothers, elderly people, small business owners and entrepreneurs. Tax complexity is costly to taxpayers and the economy. Credible estimates of the cost to taxpayers of complying with the income tax range from $70 billion to $125 billion per year. Additional costs may be imposed on the economy if taxpayers avoid certain investments, savings vehicles, business transactions, etc., because of the tax complexities they would involve or because of uncertainty about how the tax system would apply to them. Extensive tax planning engaged in by some taxpayers and businesses is a wasteful use of resources. Complexity makes it more costly for the IRS to administer the tax system. It makes it more difficult for the IRS to train its staff, to give correct answers to increased numbers of taxpayers seeking help in understanding the tax laws, and to check and audit tax returns. These costs are a significant burden on the economy. Tax simplification can cut these costs and contribute to greater economic efficiency. Tax complexity also may have other undesirable effects. Complexity may undermine confidence in the tax system. If taxpayers conclude that the tax system is so complex that no one can really figure it out, it will destroy confidence that the tax system is accomplishing its objectives, that other taxpayers are paying their fair share of tax, and that the IRS can administer the system fairly. It may thereby undermine compliance with the tax system and confidence in the government in general. Reducing tax complexity is, therefore, an important policy objective. But tax simplification is not simple. Complexity in the tax system has not arisen merely because the writers of the tax laws have been inattentive or because of a desire to provide jobs for tax accountants and lawyers. Many legitimate factors contribute to tax complexity. The modern, highly-productive U.S. economy is very complex, and many taxpayers and companies have complex financial and economic situations. Appli- 76 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES cation of the tax system to these complex financial and economic arrangements is also unavoidably complex. Many taxpayers have complex family arrangements or have special circumstances that affect their needs or their ability to pay taxes. Many special provisions have been added to the tax system to recognize the special circumstances of certain groups of taxpayers and adjust their tax burdens accordingly. The tax system has also been used extensively to provide incentives or benefits for taxpayers engaging in certain kinds of activities ranging from saving for retirement to saving energy that are deemed to be socially beneficial. While all of these tax provisions are well intended and presumptively have beneficial effects, they also contribute to complexity in the tax system. At some point, the complexity itself detracts from the ability of the tax system to function effectively and to accomplish these other objectives. Because of the multiple objectives involved in shaping any particular tax provision, the effort to simplify the tax system frequently involves tradeoffs. There may be a few places in the tax code where it is possible to draft less complex provisions that will accomplish all of the policy objectives equally well or even better. Such complexities may have arisen because of insufficient time to draft less complex provisions as a tax bill was being passed or because a series of provisions has been enacted, revised, and added to over time without an effort to consider the whole set of provisions and how they could be combined and simplified to better achieve their objectives. In many cases, however, simplification will result in some compromise in achieving other policy objectives, less precise targeting of a tax benefit, treatment of a type of income or expense in a way that is less consistent with its true economic nature, etc. In many areas, therefore, developing simplification proposals involves identifying areas of the tax system and specific simplification schemes for which the simplification that can be achieved is regarded as more valuable than the resulting decrease in achievement of other policy goals. The purpose of tax simplification, therefore, may be stated succinctly as implementing changes that will reduce the compliance burden on taxpayers and/or administrative costs of the IRS while enhancing or resulting in acceptably small sacrifices in the achievement of other policy objectives such as efficiency, fairness, revenue, and enforceability. The Administration has established the following objectives for the simplification project and principles for developing the simplification proposals. Objectives of Simplification • To reduce burdens on taxpayers and the IRS. • Greater economic growth. • Increased voluntary compliance, including use of the tax benefits provided by the law. • Lower administrative and compliance costs. • Fewer errors made by taxpayers and the IRS. • Fewer inquiries taxpayers must make and the IRS must handle. • Fewer disputes between the IRS and taxpayers. • Increased predictability (i.e., transparency) of the tax law. • Improvement of taxpayers’ confidence in the system. • Similar treatment of similarly situated taxpayers. • Similar treatment of transactions with similar economic results. • Fewer complex and expensive tax planning strategies. Principles for Developing Tax Simplification Proposals • Reduce or eliminate rules or requirements when the cost of compliance and/or enforcement outweighs the benefits of the rules or requirements. • Improve the readability of the law. • Reduce overly technical and overly vague language in the law. • Avoid highly detailed conditions and requirements. • Eliminate duplicative or overlapping provisions. • Eliminate differing definitions of similar terms or concepts. • Reduce the amount of subjectivity necessary to apply the tax law by providing clear rules and clear distinctions. • Reduce structural complexity. • Reduce the number of phase-out provisions or coordinate the amounts in different phase-out provisions. • Reduce the number and/or complexity of computations. • Reduce record keeping and information gathering requirements; coordinate record keeping and information gathering requirements with business practices. • Reduce inconsistencies in the law so that similarly situated taxpayers are treated the same. • Reduce distortions among economic activities. • Eliminate provisions or rules no longer needed because other provisions or rules have changed or because the provisions or rules are outdated. • Reduce the number of temporary or sunset provisions. Highest priority will be given to simplification proposals that will yield the largest benefits, i.e., that will affect the most people and have the largest effects in reducing compliance burdens and administrative costs. Examples of areas in the tax system where the Administration’s tax simplification project is focusing include the following: Individual AMT.—The AMT was enacted to ensure that taxpayers with substantial amounts of economic income do not avoid significant tax liability by using combinations of exclusions, deductions, and tax credits. Structural defects in the AMT, including lack of index- 4. FEDERAL RECEIPTS ing for inflation or adjustment for family size, have resulted in the tax affecting millions of taxpayers to whom it was not intended to apply. Millions of additional taxpayers must complete AMT schedules or forms to determine that they are not subject to the AMT. The number of taxpayers affected by the AMT and the amount of revenue raised by the AMT are rising rapidly, making simplification of the AMT an increasingly important objective of tax policy. This year, 2 million individual filers will be subject to the AMT and therefore required to file the 65-line AMT form. The temporary increase in the AMT exemption under EGTRRA will reduce the increase in the number of AMT taxpayers through 2004. Nevertheless, that number will increase to 5 million in 2004, and more than double, increasing to 12 million in 2005 when the temporary provision expires. In 2005, 47 percent of taxpayers with AGI between $100,000 and $200,000 (in 2002 dollars) and 75 percent of taxpayers with AGI between $200,000 and $500,000 (in 2002 dollars) will pay AMT. By 2010, these percentages will increase to 90 percent and 96 percent, respectively. By 2012, the number of AMT taxpayers will be 39 million (assuming EGTRRA is extended), which is 34 percent of all taxpayers with individual income tax liability. Family-related provisions.— Taxpayers with family responsibilities face confusing and sometimes conflicting rules. Many taxpayers are entitled to both the EITC and the additional child tax credit. Both credits are based on earned income and the number of children in the family. But the two credits use different definitions of earned income, and different definitions of qualifying children. Further, many taxpayers with three or more children must compute the additional child tax credit twice to determine which formula yields the larger credit. Similarly, some taxpayers can offset the costs of child care assistance using either a child and dependent care tax credit or an exclusion from income, but they must make multiple computations to determine which of the two is most advantageous. Conforming eligibility criteria and reducing the number of computations taxpayers must make would help simplify family-related tax provisions, thus reducing burdens on families. Uniform definition of a child.—The tax code provides assistance to families with children through the dependent exemption, head-of-household filing status, child tax credit, child and dependent care tax credit, and EITC. But to obtain these benefits, taxpayers must wade through pages of bewildering rules and instructions because each provision defines ‘‘qualifying child’’ differently. For example, to claim the dependent exemption and the child tax credit, a taxpayer must demonstrate that he or she provides most of the support of the child. To claim the EITC, the taxpayer must demonstrate that he or she resides with the child for a specified period of time. Replacing the support test, which is difficult to understand and to administer, with 77 a uniform residency test would reduce both compliance and administrative costs. Income based phaseouts.—Various tax provisions are phased out in order to target the effects of the provisions and to limit the associated revenue loss. The major provisions subject to income-based phaseouts are the EITC, the child tax credit, the child and dependent care tax credit, IRAs, the HOPE and Lifetime Learning tax credits, the deduction for higher-education expenses, the deduction for student loan interest, the exclusion for interest on education savings bonds, and the adoption credit and exclusion. Two additional phase-out provisions are scheduled to be reduced beginning in 2006 and eliminated completely in 2010: the overall limitation on itemized deductions; and the phaseout of personal exemptions. Phaseouts are complicated and increase marginal tax rates, sometimes significantly. Complexity is increased even more by the fact that different benefits are phased out differently. As a result, taxpayers must often consider multiple phase-out provisions. Education incentives.—The various tax code provisions providing incentives for higher education use differing definitions of the various elements that make up qualifying higher education expenses. The definitional differences add to the complexity taxpayers face when they use the education incentives. The array of education incentives from which taxpayers may choose means further complexity. Individual Retirement Accounts.—The current multiple sets of IRA income limits are complex and contain marriage penalties. The income limits complicate participation in IRAs by disallowing participation among certain workers depending on type of IRA, income level, filing status, and both spouses’ coverage under an employer retirement plan. Taxpayers need to make year-end calculations to determine their eligibility for a deduction or contribution. Taxpayers in the income range over which eligibility for the benefits phases out need to make calculations to determine the deductible portion of contributions to a traditional IRA, or the allowable amount of contributions to a Roth IRA. Taxpayers face uncertainty at the start of the year, because they need to forecast their year-end income to estimate their eligibility. Individual capital gains.—Under current law, long-term capital gains in excess of any short-term losses are taxed separately from other income, and may be taxed at 8, 10, 18, 20, 25 or 28 percent rates. Special rules apply to collectibles, recapture of certain depreciation deductions, certain small business stock, principal residences, certain investments in Enterprise Zones and similar qualified zones, and certain like-kind exchanges. These multiple capital gains rates and exclusions result in complicated tax forms and schedules, and the need for careful tax planning. 78 Excise taxes.—A number of excise taxes no longer have a policy rationale, and in several cases involve a significant number of taxpayers but generate relatively little revenue. Some excise taxes could be restructured to better accomplish policy objectives, reflect recent technological changes, and reduce compliance burdens for both taxpayers and the IRS. Other changes would both improve excise tax compliance and simplify their administration. Tax-exempt bonds.—Two areas of the statutory taxexempt bond rules are particularly complex: the definition of a private activity bond and the arbitrage-related provisions. The definition of a private activity bond could be simplified without undoing the policy objective of limiting the issuance of these bonds in tax-exempt form. Compliance with arbitrage rules can be burdensome for issuers even in cases in which bond proceeds are used for traditional governmental purposes. Simplifying changes could be made while still avoiding incentives for premature or over issuance of tax-exempt bonds. Corporate AMT.—The corporate AMT is a separate tax regime within the Federal income tax system. Under present law, corporations with average gross receipts of at least $7.5 million for the prior three years are required to calculate their tax liability twice: once using the rules of the regular tax system and a second time using the corporate AMT rules. Under the corporate AMT rules, many of the advantageous deductions and credits allowed under the regular tax rules are not allowed, but income under the AMT is taxed at a lower rate than under the regular corporate tax (20 percent, rather than 35 percent). If tax liability calculated under the AMT rules exceeds regular tax liability, the corporation is required to pay AMT in addition to its regular tax. Because payment of AMT represents a prepayment of regular tax, the amount of AMT paid generates AMT credits that can be used to offset regular tax in subsequent years (subject to certain limitations). The corporate AMT rules increase compliance burdens by causing corporations to devote additional resources to tax planning and record keeping. Because the AMT rules limit the use of tax preferences only for corporations that are AMT payers, corporations that engage in tax-preferred activities incur expenditures to develop strategies to minimize the effect of the AMT rules. In addition, the AMT requires corporations to keep extensive records of numerous adjustments and preferences. For example, depreciation allowances for newly invested property generally are calculated one way under the regular tax and a different way under the AMT. Although a corporation may not have AMT liability, it is required to calculate the AMT to determine whether it owes AMT. The AMT tax regime is difficult and burdensome for corporations to comply with and for IRS to administer. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Depreciation.—There are several sources of complexity in tax depreciation. One source is ambiguity in determining an asset’s class life, which determines the asset’s annual depreciation allowance. New types of assets, assets used in multiple activities, and building-related expenditures are sometimes difficult to classify and so lead to disputes between taxpayers and the IRS. New assets may be particularly difficult to fit within existing classification guidelines, which generally have not been updated since the mid-1980s. Placed-in-service conventions also can add to complexity and create uncertainty. Generally, an asset does not receive a full year’s depreciation during the tax year in which it is initially placed in service. Instead, the asset receives a fraction of the annual depreciation allowances, as determined by the date on which statutory convention deems the asset to have been placed in service. The placed-in-service conventions sometimes require taxpayers to wait until the end of the taxable year to determine the proper depreciation allowance for property that may have been placed in service at various dates throughout the year. Capitalization.— Substantial ambiguity exists over whether many items of cost may be deducted currently or instead must be capitalized. Case law holds that the determination of whether an item of cost must be capitalized is based on each particular taxpayer’s facts and circumstances. While no one factor has been held to be determinative, the current legal standard relies heavily on whether the item creates a significant future benefit, but the degree of future benefit required for capitalization is ambiguous. Thus, taxpayers and the IRS may end up in dispute over whether certain costs, which traditionally have been deducted, should instead be capitalized. The present uncertain legal environment has elevated capitalization to the top of the list of contested audit issues for businesses. Tax accounting.—There are many sources of complexity in tax accounting. These include issues related to accrual and inventory accounting, uniform capitalization rules, and the percentage of completion method. Compliance problems generally are more severe for small companies. Accrual accounting and inventory accounting can be complex and add to the burden of complying with the tax law, especially for small taxpayers. Some of this complexity arises from the additional record keeping required to measure taxes on an accrual basis when the taxpayer uses cash accounting for financial reporting. Additional complexity arises from legal ambiguities about whether certain taxpayers are required to keep inventory accounts. Recently implemented IRS Revenue Procedures provide substantial simplification and certainty by exempting many small taxpayers from the record-keeping burdens of accrual and inventory accounting. For small businesses that do not qualify for tax relief under these Procedures, however, accrual and inventory accounting may continue to impose complexity and record keeping costs. 4. 79 FEDERAL RECEIPTS The LIFO (Last In First Out, a method of accounting for inventories) conformity requirement, that requires firms to use the LIFO method for financial reporting when they use LIFO for tax accounting, also adds to complexity. Conformity violations are more a matter of how information is provided than of what information is provided, creating complications and traps for the unwary. The uniform capitalization (UNICAP) rules require that both direct and indirect costs be added to basis or included in inventory. Measuring and accounting for all capitalizable costs can be difficult, especially for small taxpayers. Yet, for many taxpayers the UNICAP rules have only a small effect on tax liability, compared to simpler methods, and so add to complexity without substantially affecting tax results. The percentage of completion method used for determining income from a long-term contract requires the taxpayer to estimate costs and receipts over the life of the contract, with timing errors corrected by a lookback adjustment once the contract is completed. The Table 4–3. calculations and record keeping required can be burdensome, especially for small taxpayers. Moreover, in some cases simpler tax accounting methods would cause only a small reduction in tax liability. International tax rules.—There is much that can be done to reduce the complexity of our international tax rules. This area of the tax law is singled out by businesses as one of the biggest sources of administrative complexity and compliance costs. Moreover, the global economy has changed dramatically since the U.S. international tax rules were developed. It is time to re-examine the rules with a view toward significant rationalization. The focus of efforts in this area will be to reduce the instances in which the international tax rules impose conditions or requirements on U.S. taxpayers that are not consistent with the way businesses operate in the global marketplace and that require efforts that otherwise are unnecessary or noneconomic. EFFECT OF PROPOSALS ON RECEIPTS (In millions of dollars) Estimate Plan 1 Bipartisan Economic Security ............................................................... Tax Incentives: Provide incentives for charitable giving: Provide charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers ........................ Permit tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions ........... Raise the cap on corporate charitable contributions .................................. Expand and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food inventory ............................................................................. Reform excise tax based on investment income of private foundations ... Modify tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts .................................................................................................. Modify basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated property ......................................................................................... Allow expedited consideration of applications for exempt status 2 ............ Strengthen and reform education: Provide refundable tax credit for certain costs of attending a different school for pupils assigned to failing public schools 3 ............................ Allow teachers to deduct out-of-pocket classroom expenses .................... Invest in health care: Provide refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 4 ....... Provide an above-the-line deduction for long-term care insurance premiums ....................................................................................................... Allow up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement to be carried forward to the next year ................................. Provide additional choice with regard to unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement ................................................................ Permanently extend and reform Archer MSAs ........................................... Provide an additional personal exemption to home caretakers of family members .................................................................................................. Assist Americans with disabilities: Exclude from income the value of employer-provided computers, software and peripherals ............................................................................... Help farmers and fishermen manage economic downturns: Establish FFARRM savings accounts ......................................................... Increase housing opportunities: Provide tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing ....... Encourage saving: Establish Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) .................................... 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 –62,000 –65,000 –47,500 –9,500 17,000 18,000 –87,000 –43,500 –570 –93 –24 –1,429 –192 –169 –1,437 –205 –121 –2,288 –219 –127 –3,567 –230 –139 –3,591 –238 –156 –12,312 –1,084 –712 –32,636 –2,632 –1,730 –10 –122 –49 –177 –54 –181 –59 –189 –66 –198 –72 –205 –300 –950 –789 –2,101 –1 –3 –3 –4 –4 –4 –18 –48 –8 .............. –11 .............. –13 .............. –17 ................ –21 ................ –25 ................ –87 .................. –282 .................... .............. .............. –10 .............. –24 –16 –38 –163 –52 –191 –62 –207 –186 –577 –219 –1,718 .............. –245 –1,689 –2,811 –2,774 –2,951 –10,470 –29,116 .............. –328 –406 –605 –1,222 –2,158 –4,719 –20,730 .............. .............. –441 –723 –782 –830 –2,776 –7,819 .............. .............. .............. .............. –23 –43 –39 –468 –45 –530 –52 –607 –159 –1,648 –566 –5,691 .............. –314 –383 –362 –345 –348 –1,752 –3,957 .............. .............. –2 –6 –6 –6 –20 –52 .............. .............. –133 –350 –244 –171 –898 –1,233 .............. –7 –76 –302 –715 –1,252 –2,352 –15,257 .............. –124 –267 –319 –300 –255 –1,265 –1,722 80 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 4–3. EFFECT OF PROPOSALS ON RECEIPTS—Continued (In millions of dollars) Estimate Protect the environment: Permanently extend expensing of brownfields remediation costs ............. Exclude 50 percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes .................................................................................................. Increase energy production and promote energy conservation: Extend and modify tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources ..................................................................................................... Provide tax credit for residential solar energy systems ............................. Modify treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds ................................. Provide tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles ... Provide tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas ........................... Provide tax credit for combined heat and power property ........................ Provide excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol 2 .................................... Promote trade: Extend and expand Andean trade preferences 5 ....................................... Initiate a new trade preference program for Southeast Europe 5 .............. Implement free trade agreements with Chile and Singapore 5 .................. Improve tax administration: Implement IRS administrative reforms ........................................................ Reform unemployment insurance: Reform unemployment insurance administrative financing 5 ...................... Expiring Provisions: Extend provisions that expired in 2001 for two years: Work opportunity tax credit ......................................................................... Welfare-to-work tax credit ............................................................................ Minimum tax relief for individuals ................................................................ Exceptions provided under Subpart F for certain active financing income Suspension of net income limitation on percentage depletion from marginal oil and gas wells ............................................................................ Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) 5 .............................................. Authority to issue qualified zone academy bonds ...................................... Permanently extend expiring provisions: Provisions expiring in 2010: Marginal individual income tax rate reductions ...................................... Child tax credit 6 ...................................................................................... Marriage penalty relief 7 .......................................................................... Education incentives ................................................................................ Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification of gift taxes ............................................................................. Modifications of IRAs and pension plans ............................................... Other incentives for families and children .............................................. Research and experimentation (R&E) tax credit ........................................ Total effect of proposals .......................................................................... 1 Affects 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2003–2012 .............. .............. –193 –306 –299 –289 –1,087 –2,390 .............. –2 –44 –90 –94 –98 –328 –918 –92 –3 –89 –21 –12 –97 .............. –227 –6 –156 –80 –34 –208 .............. –303 –7 –168 –181 –59 –235 .............. –212 –8 –178 –349 –86 –238 ................ –143 –17 –188 –530 –120 –296 ................ –146 –24 –199 –763 –140 –139 ................ –1,031 –62 –889 –1,903 –439 –1,116 .................. –1,779 –72 –2,042 –3,027 –1,130 –1,091 .................... –130 .............. .............. –192 –19 –21 –213 –23 –86 –226 –25 –109 –58 –7 –131 ................ ................ –155 –689 –74 –502 –689 –74 –1,560 .............. 60 49 50 52 54 265 559 .............. –1,002 –1,451 –2,902 –2,982 –4,429 –12,766 –6,924 –43 –9 –122 –864 –153 –37 –353 –1,502 –200 –57 –256 –630 –127 –48 ................ ................ –60 –32 ................ ................ –29 –22 ................ ................ –569 –196 –609 –2,132 –576 –209 –609 –2,132 –25 –370 –4 –44 –415 –13 –18 .............. –25 ................ ................ –35 ................ ................ –37 ................ ................ –37 –62 –415 –147 –62 –415 –332 .............. .............. .............. –1 .............. .............. .............. –5 .............. .............. .............. –10 ................ ................ ................ –15 ................ ................ ................ –20 ................ ................ ................ –26 .................. .................. .................. –76 –183,769 –31,697 –12,976 –2,810 178 .............. .............. .............. –550 .............. .............. .............. –1,097 .............. .............. –906 –1,485 ................ ................ –2,949 –1,987 ................ ................ –4,654 –2,178 ................ ................ –5,623 –7,297 .................. .................. –14,132 –103,659 –6,490 –1,298 –51,051 –64,532 –73,017 –59,130 –27,927 –6,034 –9,433 –175,541 –591,020 both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $27,000 million for 2002, $8,000 for 2003, $1,500 million for 2004, $9,500 million for 2003–2007, and $9,500 million for 2003–2012. proposal with a receipt effect of zero. 3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $165 million for 2003, $449 million for 2004, $699 million for 2005, $975 million for 2006, $1,213 million for 2007, $3,501 million for 2003–2007, and $4,155 million for 2003–2012. 4 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $667 million for 2003, $5,185 million for 2004, $6,292 million for 2005, $6,560 million for 2006, $6,441 million for 2007, $25,145 million for 2003–2007, and $59,873 million for 2003–2012. 5 Net of income offsets. 6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlays effect is $8,745 million for 2003–2012. 7 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the receipt effect is shown here. The outlays effect is $1,527 million for 2003–2012, 2 Policy 4. 81 FEDERAL RECEIPTS Table 4–4. RECEIPTS BY SOURCE (In millions of dollars) Source Estimate 2001 Actual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Individual income taxes (federal funds): Existing law ............................................................................................................................ 994,339 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. 949,885 –646 1,009,047 –2,693 1,063,560 –4,966 1,119,913 –7,904 1,167,409 –10,133 1,233,065 –11,378 Total individual income taxes ................................................................................................ 994,339 949,239 1,006,354 1,058,594 1,112,009 1,157,276 1,221,687 Corporation income taxes: Federal funds: Existing law ....................................................................................................................... 151,071 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) .................................................................................... .................. 202,547 –1,102 207,960 –2,471 215,170 –3,182 241,952 –4,865 248,397 –6,949 258,890 –8,275 201,445 205,489 211,988 237,087 241,448 250,615 Total Federal funds corporation income taxes ..................................................................... Trust funds: Hazardous substance superfund ...................................................................................... Total corporation income taxes ............................................................................................. 151,071 4 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 151,075 201,445 205,489 211,988 237,087 241,448 250,615 434,057 73,462 149,651 442,131 75,067 151,677 466,185 79,158 159,310 490,228 83,244 167,667 519,907 88,286 178,255 541,680 91,984 185,997 568,723 96,576 195,448 1,614 2,658 1,704 2,556 1,721 2,412 1,749 2,307 1,771 2,299 1,795 2,332 1,818 2,366 Total employment and general retirement ............................................................................ 661,442 673,135 708,786 745,195 790,518 823,788 864,931 On-budget .......................................................................................................................... Off-budget .......................................................................................................................... 153,923 507,519 155,937 517,198 163,443 545,343 171,723 573,472 182,325 608,193 190,124 633,664 199,632 665,299 Unemployment insurance: Deposits by States 1 ......................................................................................................... 20,824 23,254 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) .................................................................................... .................. .................. Federal unemployment receipts 1 .................................................................................... 6,937 6,934 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) .................................................................................... .................. .................. Railroad unemployment receipts 1 ................................................................................... 51 100 29,887 –1 7,065 –1,252 150 34,564 –5 7,237 –1,809 156 36,363 –462 7,410 –3,165 120 36,744 63 7,580 –3,790 94 36,914 –289 7,749 –5,247 103 Total unemployment insurance ............................................................................................. 27,812 30,288 35,849 40,143 40,266 40,691 39,230 Other retirement: Federal employees’ retirement—employee share ............................................................ Non-Federal employees retirement 2 ............................................................................... 4,647 66 4,550 62 4,527 50 4,424 46 4,337 42 4,221 39 4,068 36 Total other retirement ............................................................................................................ 4,713 4,612 4,577 4,470 4,379 4,260 4,104 Total social insurance and retirement receipts ................................................................... 693,967 708,035 749,212 789,808 835,163 868,739 908,265 On-budget .............................................................................................................................. Off-budget .............................................................................................................................. 186,448 507,519 190,837 517,198 203,869 545,343 216,336 573,472 226,970 608,193 235,075 633,664 242,966 665,299 Excise taxes: Federal funds: Alcohol taxes ..................................................................................................................... 7,624 Tobacco taxes ................................................................................................................... 7,396 Transportation fuels tax .................................................................................................... 1,150 Telephone and teletype services ...................................................................................... 5,769 Ozone depleting chemicals and products ........................................................................ 32 Other Federal fund excise taxes ...................................................................................... 2,151 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) .................................................................................... .................. 7,627 8,045 1,138 5,984 22 1,963 –122 7,664 8,115 1,180 6,345 13 1,867 –177 24,657 25,007 25,371 25,873 25,353 25,802 Trust funds: Highway ............................................................................................................................. 31,469 31,926 32,952 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) .................................................................................... .................. .................. .................. 34,121 –7 35,414 –17 36,919 –29 38,038 –38 Social insurance and retirement receipts (trust funds): Employment and general retirement: Old-age and survivors insurance (Off-budget) ................................................................. Disability insurance (Off-budget) ....................................................................................... Hospital insurance ............................................................................................................. Railroad retirement: Social Security equivalent account .............................................................................. Rail pension and supplemental annuity ....................................................................... Total Federal fund excise taxes ........................................................................................... 24,122 7,748 7,831 7,877 7,923 7,974 7,875 7,782 7,692 1,216 1,266 304 312 6,753 7,179 7,612 8,050 7 .................. .................. .................. 1,854 1,911 1,976 2,030 –181 –189 –198 –205 82 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 4–4. RECEIPTS BY SOURCE—Continued (In millions of dollars) Source Airport and airway ............................................................................................................. Aquatic resources .............................................................................................................. Black lung disability insurance ......................................................................................... Inland waterway ................................................................................................................ Hazardous substance superfund ...................................................................................... Vaccine injury compensation ............................................................................................ Leaking underground storage tank ................................................................................... 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 9,191 8,939 9,680 10,269 10,878 11,518 12,178 358 385 393 414 424 435 443 522 554 573 597 616 628 638 113 97 98 98 99 100 101 2 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 112 123 125 125 127 128 129 179 190 193 199 204 214 218 Total trust funds excise taxes ............................................................................................... 41,946 42,214 44,014 45,816 47,745 49,913 51,707 Total excise taxes .................................................................................................................... 66,068 66,871 69,021 71,187 73,618 75,266 77,509 Estate and gift taxes: Federal funds ......................................................................................................................... 28,400 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. 27,484 6 23,559 –560 27,638 –1,050 24,769 –1,343 28,121 –1,736 24,992 –1,794 Total estate and gift taxes ...................................................................................................... 28,400 27,490 22,999 26,588 23,426 26,385 23,198 Customs duties: Federal funds ......................................................................................................................... 18,583 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. Trust funds ............................................................................................................................. 786 18,538 –668 796 19,781 –863 887 21,424 –430 905 22,549 –482 977 23,964 –262 1,041 25,283 –207 1,075 Total customs duties ............................................................................................................... 19,369 18,666 19,805 21,899 23,044 24,743 26,151 MISCELLANEOUS RECEIPTS: 3 Miscellaneous taxes .............................................................................................................. United Mine Workers of America combined benefit fund .................................................... Deposit of earnings, Federal Reserve System .................................................................... Defense cooperation .............................................................................................................. Fees for permits and regulatory and judicial services ......................................................... Fines, penalties, and forfeitures ............................................................................................ Gifts and contributions .......................................................................................................... Refunds and recoveries ........................................................................................................ 94 150 26,124 7 8,483 2,724 284 –54 109 143 25,596 6 7,905 2,685 244 –298 111 138 29,025 6 8,463 2,523 219 –305 113 132 31,512 6 8,650 2,509 185 –317 115 127 32,084 6 8,478 2,517 186 –325 117 123 33,214 6 8,607 2,525 179 –327 119 117 34,832 6 8,794 2,534 180 –335 Total miscellaneous receipts ................................................................................................. 37,812 36,390 40,180 42,790 43,188 44,444 46,247 Proposed bipartisan economic security plan (PAYGO) ..................................................... .................. –62,000 –65,000 –47,500 –9,500 17,000 18,000 Total budget receipts .............................................................................................................. On-budget .............................................................................................................................. Off-budget .............................................................................................................................. 1,991,030 1,483,511 507,519 1,946,136 1,428,938 517,198 2,048,060 1,502,717 545,343 2,175,354 1,601,882 573,472 2,338,035 1,729,842 608,193 2,455,301 1,821,637 633,664 2,571,672 1,906,373 665,299 MEMORANDUM Federal funds ......................................................................................................................... Trust funds ............................................................................................................................. Interfund transactions ............................................................................................................ 1,255,504 445,470 –217,463 1,195,158 465,179 –231,399 1,255,629 497,771 –250,683 1,338,515 518,623 –255,256 1,453,879 542,161 –266,198 1,535,377 564,491 –278,231 1,610,437 587,613 –291,677 Total on-budget ........................................................................................................................ 1,483,511 1,428,938 1,502,717 1,601,882 1,729,842 1,821,637 1,906,373 Off-budget (trust funds) .......................................................................................................... 507,519 517,198 545,343 573,472 608,193 633,664 665,299 Total ........................................................................................................................................... 1,991,030 1,946,136 2,048,060 2,175,354 2,338,035 2,455,301 2,571,672 1 Deposits by States cover the benefit part of the program. Federal unemployment receipts cover administrative costs at both the Federal and State levels. Railroad unemployment receipts cover both the benefits and adminstrative costs of the program for the railroads. 2 Represents employer and employee contributions to the civil service retirement and disability fund for covered employees of Government-sponsored, privately owned enterprises and the District of Columbia municipal government. 3 Includes both Federal and trust funds. 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS In addition to collecting taxes and other receipts by the exercise of its sovereign powers, which is discussed in the previous chapter, the Federal Government collects income from the public from market-oriented activities and the financing of regulatory expenses. Some of these collections are classified as user fees, which include the sale of postage stamps and electricity, fees for admittance to national parks, and premiums for deposit insurance; and some are other offsetting collections or receipts, such as rents and royalties for the right to extract oil from the Outer Continental Shelf. Depending on the laws that authorize the collections, the collections can be credited directly to expenditure accounts as ‘‘offsetting collections,’’ or to receipt accounts as ‘‘offsetting receipts.’’ Usually offsetting collections are authorized to be spent for the purposes of the account without further action by the Congress. Offsetting receipts may or may not be earmarked for a specific purpose, depending on the legislation that authorizes them, and the authorizing legislation may either authorize them to be spent without further action by the Congress, or require them to be appropriated in annual appropriations acts before they can be spent. The budget refers to them as offsetting collections and offsetting receipts, because they are subtracted from gross outlays rather than added to taxes on the receipts side of the budget. The purpose of this treatment is to produce budget totals for receipts, outlays, and budget authority in terms of the amount of resources allocated governmentally, through collective political choice, rather than through the market. 1 Offsetting collections and receipts include most user fees, which are discussed below, as well as some amounts that are not user fees. Table 5–1 summarizes these transactions. For 2003, total offsetting collections and receipts from the public are estimated to be $231.2 billion, and total user fees are estimated to be $154.3 billion. The following section discusses user fees and the Administration’s user fee proposals. The subsequent section displays more information on offsetting collections and receipts. The offsetting collections and receipts by agency are also displayed in Table 21–1, ‘‘Outlays to the Public, Net and Gross,’’ which appears in Chapter 21 of this volume. Table 5–1. GROSS OUTLAYS, USER FEES, OTHER OFFSETTING COLLECTIONS AND RECEIPTS FROM THE PUBLIC, AND NET OUTLAYS (In billions of dollars) 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2003 Gross outlays ...................................................................................... Offsetting collections and receipts from the public: User fees 1 ................................................................................. Other .......................................................................................... 2,084.5 2,275.7 2,359.5 –132.1 –88.4 –140.2 –83.2 –152.7 –78.5 Subtotal, offsetting collections and receipts from the public ........ –220.6 –223.4 –231.2 Net outlays .......................................................................................... 1,863.9 2,052.3 2,128.2 1 Total user fees are shown below. They include user fees that are classified on the receipts side of the budget in addition to the amounts shown on this line. For additional details of total user fees, see table 5–2. ‘‘Total User Fee Collections.’’ Total user fees: Offsetting collections and receipts from the public ...................................... Receipts ......................................................................................................... 132.1 1.5 140.2 1.5 152.7 1.6 Total, user fees .................................................................................................. 133.7 141.6 154.3 1 Showing collections from business-type transactions as offsets on the spending side of the budget follows the concept recommended by the 1967 Report of the President’s Commis- sion on Budget Concepts. The concept is discussed in Chapter 25: ‘‘Budget System and Concepts and Glossary’’ in this volume. 83 84 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES USER FEES I. Introduction and Background The Federal Government may charge user fees to those who benefit directly from a particular activity or those subject to regulation. According to the definition of user fees used in this chapter, Table 5–2 shows that user fees were $133.7 billion in 2001, and are estimated to increase to $141.6 billion in 2002 and to $154.3 billion in 2003, growing to an estimated $176.9 billion in 2007, including the user fee proposals that are shown in Table 5–3. This table shows that the Administration is proposing to increase user fees by an estimated $1.5 billion in 2003, growing to an estimated $2.9 billion in 2007. Definition. The term ‘‘user fee’’ as defined here is fees, charges, and assessments levied on groups or individuals directly benefitting from, or subject to regulation by, a government program or activity, and to be utilized solely to support the program or activity. In addition, the payers of the fee must be limited to those benefitting from, or subject to regulation by, the program or activity, and may not include the general public or a broad segment of the public. The user fee must be authorized for use only to fund the specified programs or activities for which it is charged, including directly associated agency functions, not for unrelated programs or activities and not for the broad purposes of the Government or an agency. • Examples of business-type or market-oriented user fees include fees for the sale of postal services (the sale of stamps), electricity (e.g., sales by the Tennessee Valley Authority), payments for Medicare voluntary supplemental medical insurance, life insurance premiums for veterans, recreation fees for parks, NASA fees for shuttle services, the sale of weather maps and related information by the Department of Commerce, the sale of commemorative coins, and fees for the sale of books. • Examples of regulatory and licensing user fees include fees for regulating the nuclear energy industry, bankruptcy filing fees, immigration fees, food inspection fees, passport fees, and patent and trademark fees. User fees do not include all offsetting collections and receipts, such as the interest and repayments received from credit programs; proceeds from the sale of loans and other financial investments; interest, dividends, and other earnings; cost sharing contributions; the sale of timber, minerals, oil, commodities, and other natural resources; proceeds from asset sales (property, plant, and equipment); Outer Continental Shelf receipts; or spectrum auction proceeds. Neither do they include earmarked taxes (such as taxes paid to social insurance programs or excise taxes), or customs duties, fines, penalties, and forfeitures. Alternative definitions. The definition used in this chapter is useful because it identifies goods, services, and regulations financed by earmarked collections and receipts.2 Other definitions may be used for other purposes. Much of the discussion of user fees below—their purpose, when they should be levied, and how the amount should be set—applies to these alternatives as well. OMB uses the broader concept of ‘‘user charges’’ to establish policy for charging prices to the public for the sale or use of goods, services, property, and resources (see OMB Circular A–25, ‘‘User Charges,’’ July 8, 1993). User charges are all amounts assessed for the provision of Government services and for the sale or use of Government goods, property, or resources. The payers of the user charge must be limited in the authorizing legislation to those receiving special benefits from, or subject to regulation by, the program or activity beyond the benefits received by the general public or broad segments of the public (such as those who pay income taxes or customs duties). The term is broader than user fees as defined in this chapter in two ways. First, user charges encompass proceeds from the sale of government goods and services regardless of whether they are earmarked to fund the specific program or activity for which they are charged. Second, the term includes proceeds from the sale of natural resources (such as timber, oil, and minerals) and asset sales (such as property, plant, and equipment) as well as goods and services. Other alternative definitions of user fees could, for example: • be narrower than the one used here, by excluding regulatory fees and analyzing them as a separate category. • interpret more broadly whether a program has private beneficiaries, or whether the proceeds are earmarked to benefit directly those paying the fee. A broader interpretation might include beneficiary- or liability-based excise taxes.3 What is the purpose of user fees? The purpose of user fees is to improve the efficiency and equity of certain Government activities, and to reduce the burden on the taxpayer to finance activities whose benefits accrue to a relatively limited number of people. User fees that are set to cover the costs of production of goods and services can provide efficiency in the allocation of resources within the economy. They allocate goods and services to those who value them the most, and they signal to the Government how much of the goods or services it should provide. Prices in private, competitive markets serve the same purposes. 2 The definition of user fees used here is similar to one the House of Representatives uses as a guide for purposes of committee jurisdiction. The definition helps differentiate between taxes, which are under the jurisdiction of the Ways and Means Committee, and fees, which can be under the jurisdiction of other committees. See the Congressional Record, January 3, 1991, p. H31, item 8. 3 Beneficiary- and liability-based taxes are terms taken from the Congressional Budget Office, The Growth of Federal User Charges, August 1993, and updated in October 1995. Examples of beneficiary-based taxes include taxes on gasoline, which finance grants to States for highway construction, or taxes on airline tickets, which finance air traffic control activities and airports. An example of a liability-based tax is the excise tax that formerly helped fund the hazardous substance superfund in the Environmental Protection Agency. This tax was paid by industry groups to finance environmental cleanup activities related to the industry activity but not necessarily caused by the payer of the fee. 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS User fees for goods and services that do not have special social benefits improve equity, or fairness, by requiring that those who benefit from an activity are the same people who pay for it. The public often perceives user fees as fair because those who benefit from the good or service pay for it in whole or in part, and those who do not benefit do not pay. When should the Government charge a fee? Discussions of whether to finance spending with a tax or a fee often focus on whether the benefits of the activity are to the public in general or to a limited group of people. In general, if the benefits accrue broadly to the public, then the program should be financed by taxes paid by the public; in contrast, if the benefits accrue to a limited number of private individuals or groups, then the program should be financed by fees paid by the private beneficiaries. For Federal programs where the benefits are entirely public or entirely private, applying this principle is relatively easy. For example, according to this principle, the benefits from national defense accrue to the public in general and should be (and are) financed by taxes. In contrast, the benefits of electricity sold by the Tennessee Valley Authority accrue exclusively to those using the electricity, and should be (and are) financed by user fees. In many cases, however, an activity has benefits that accrue to both public and to private groups, and it may be difficult to identify how much of the benefits accrue to each. Because of this, it can be difficult to know how much of the program should be financed by taxes and how much by fees. For example, the benefits from recreation areas are mixed. Fees for visitors to these areas are appropriate because the visitors benefit directly from their visit, but the public in general also benefits because these areas protect the Nation’s natural and historical heritage now and for posterity. As a further complication, where a fee may be appropriate to finance all or part of an activity, some consideration must be given to the ease of administering the fee. What should be the amount of the fee? For programs that have private beneficiaries, the amount of the fee should depend on the costs of producing the goods or services and the portion of the program that is for private benefits. If the benefit is primarily private, and any public benefits are incidental, current policies support fees that cover the full cost to the Government, including both direct and indirect costs.4 The Executive Branch is working to put cost accounting systems in place across the Government that would make the calculation of full cost more feasible. The difficulties in measuring full cost are associated in part with allocating to an activity the full costs of capital, retirement benefits, and insurance, as well as other Federal costs that may appear in other parts of the budget. Guidance in the Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No. 4, Managerial Cost Account4 Policies for setting user charges are promulgated in OMB Circular No. A–25: ‘‘User Charges’’ (July 8, 1993). These policies are required regardless of whether or not the proceeds are earmarked to finance the related activity. 85 ing Concepts and Standards for the Federal Government (July 31, 1995), should underlie cost accounting in the Federal Government. Classification of user fees in the budget. As shown in Table 5–1, most user fees are classified as offsets to outlays on the spending side of the budget, but a few are classified on the receipts side of the budget. An estimated $1.6 billion in 2003 are classified this way and are included in the totals described in Chapter 4. ‘‘Federal Receipts.’’ They are classified as receipts because they are regulatory fees collected by the Federal Government by the exercise of its sovereign powers. The remaining user fees, an estimated $152.7 billion in 2003, are classified as offsetting collections and receipts on the spending side of the budget. Some of these are collected by the Federal Government by the exercise of its sovereign powers and would normally appear on the receipts side of the budget, but are required by law to be classified as offsetting collections or receipts. An estimated $108.8 billion of user fees for 2003 are credited directly to expenditure accounts, and are generally available for expenditure when they are collected, without further action by the Congress. An estimated $43.9 billion of user fees for 2003 are deposited in offsetting receipt accounts, and are available to be spent only according to the legislation that established the fees. As a further classification, the accompanying Tables 5–2 and 5–3 identify the fees as discretionary or mandatory. These classifications are terms from the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 as amended and are used frequently in the analysis of the budget. ‘‘Discretionary’’ in this chapter refers to fees generally controlled through annual appropriations acts and under the jurisdiction of the appropriations committees in the Congress. These fees offset discretionary spending under the discretionary caps. ‘‘Mandatory’’ refers to fees controlled by permanent laws and under the jurisdiction of the authorizing committees. These fees are subject to rules of paygo, whereby changes in law affecting mandatory programs and receipts cannot result in a net cost. Mandatory spending is sometimes referred to as direct spending. These and other classifications are discussed further in this volume in Chapter 25, ‘‘Budget System and Concepts and Glossary.’’ II. Current User Fees As shown in Table 5–2, total user fee collections (including those proposed in this budget) are estimated to be $154.3 billion in 2003, increasing to $176.9 billion in 2007. User fee collections by the Postal Service and Medicare premiums are the largest and are estimated to be almost two-thirds of total user fee collections in 2003. 86 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 5–2. TOTAL USER FEE COLLECTIONS (In millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Estimates 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Receipts Agricultural quarantine inspection fees ................................................................................................... Corps of Engineers, Harbor maintenance fees ...................................................................................... Other governmental receipts user fees .................................................................................................. 265 722 545 215 733 515 260 823 532 259 839 538 266 909 548 272 972 552 279 1,005 559 Subtotal, receipts ................................................................................................................................. 1,532 1,463 1,615 1,636 1,723 1,796 1,843 153 1,366 5,834 185 1,665 5,828 221 1,826 6,052 233 1,985 6,052 238 2,145 6,052 241 2,299 6,052 246 2,405 6,052 Offsetting Collections and Receipts from the Public Discretionary Department of Agriculture: Food safety inspection and other fees .................................................. Department of Commerce: Patent and trademark, fees for weather services, and other fees ...... Department of Defense: Commissary and other fees ....................................................................... Department of Energy: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, power marketing, and other fees .................................................................................................................................................. Department of Health and Human Services: Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and other fees ................................................................................. Department of the Interior: Minerals Management Service and other fees ..................................... Department of Justice: Antitrust and other fees ................................................................................ Department of State: Passport and other fees .................................................................................. Department of Transportation: Railroad safety, navigation, and other fees ..................................... Department of the Treasury: Sale of commemorative coins and other fees ................................... Department of Veterans Affairs: Medical care and other fees ......................................................... Social Security Administration: State supplemental fees, supplemental security income ................ Federal Communications Commission: Regulatory fees ................................................................... Federal Trade Commission: Regulatory fees ..................................................................................... Nuclear Regulatory Commission: Regulatory fees ............................................................................ Securities and Exchange Commission: Regulatory fees ................................................................... All other agencies, discretionary user fees ........................................................................................ 917 1,297 1,276 1,303 1,329 1,362 1,393 273 212 304 544 38 1,489 774 91 208 91 453 735 220 294 210 414 508 144 1,257 808 106 227 163 479 1,149 267 529 209 435 656 381 1,910 1,087 111 248 178 518 1,332 293 531 212 441 670 629 1,439 1,288 119 253 182 523 1,542 338 543 217 446 685 640 1,470 1,377 126 258 187 528 1,837 346 545 223 452 701 652 1,505 1,467 134 264 192 545 2,171 354 549 227 458 717 665 1,539 1,558 143 270 197 563 1,142 365 Subtotal, discretionary user fees .................................................................................................... 13,702 15,001 17,262 17,740 18,424 19,159 18,489 1,240 265 1,100 743 1,097 599 1,198 599 1,237 599 1,199 599 1,215 599 Mandatory Department of Agriculture: Crop insurance and other fees .............................................................. Department of Defense: Commissary surcharge and other fees ...................................................... Department of Energy: Proceeds from the sale of energy, nuclear waste disposal fees, and other fees ........................................................................................................................................ Department of Health and Human Services: Medicare Part B insurance premiums and other fees .................................................................................................................................................. Department of the Interior: Recreation and other fees ..................................................................... Department of Justice: Immigration and other fees .......................................................................... Department of Labor: Insurance premiums to guaranty private pensions ........................................ Department of the Treasury: Customs, bank regulation, and other fees ......................................... Department of Veterans Affairs: Veterans life insurance and other fees ......................................... Federal Emergency Management Agency: Flood insurance fees .................................................... Office of Personnel Management: Federal employee health and life insurance fees ..................... Federal Communications Commission: Analog spectrum lease fee ................................................. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation: Deposit insurance fees ...................................................... Postal Service: Fees for postal services ............................................................................................ Tennessee Valley Authority: Proceeds from the sale of energy ....................................................... All other agencies, mandatory user fees ........................................................................................... 4,851 4,623 4,508 4,650 4,295 4,246 4,237 23,764 634 1,821 850 1,929 1,553 1,603 7,404 .............. 83 64,871 7,326 224 25,637 672 2,241 886 1,992 1,974 1,729 8,037 .............. 86 67,794 7,348 322 27,363 626 2,320 829 2,143 2,114 1,785 9,881 .............. 893 73,727 7,205 337 29,063 641 2,312 818 717 2,101 1,839 10,680 .............. 2,123 75,796 7,462 372 31,082 643 2,352 830 736 2,059 1,906 11,372 .............. 2,274 77,996 7,674 384 33,264 646 2,394 827 751 2,077 1,980 12,091 .............. 2,333 79,996 7,806 397 35,568 649 2,438 823 766 2,035 2,069 12,886 500 2,375 81,996 8,018 405 Subtotal, mandatory user fees ....................................................................................................... 118,418 125,184 135,427 140,371 145,439 150,606 156,579 Subtotal, offsetting collections and receipts from the public ............................................................. 132,120 140,185 152,689 158,111 163,863 169,765 175,068 Total, User fees ...................................................................................................................................... 133,652 141,648 154,304 159,747 165,586 171,561 176,911 User fee collections are used to offset outlays in both the discretionary and mandatory parts of the budget. User fee collections classified in the discretionary part of the budget are estimated to be $17.3 billion in 2003, and those in the mandatory part are estimated to be $135.4 billion in 2003. 87 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS III. User Fee Proposals As shown in Table 5–3, the Administration is proposing new or increased user fees that would increase collections by an estimated $1.5 billion in 2003, increasing to $2.9 billion in 2007. A. User Fee Proposals to Offset Discretionary Spending 1. Offsetting collections authorized in 1992 and reauthorized in 1997, PDUFA assesses user fees to pharmaceutical manufacturers for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) review of new prescription drugs for safety and efficacy. FDA review of a new prescription drug is required before these drugs are available to consumers on the market. Spending financed by these fees would be in addition to regular appropriations. Department of Agriculture Department of State Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.—Legislation will be proposed to establish user fees for APHIS costs for animal welfare inspections, such as for animal research centers, humane societies, and kennels. Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration.—Legislation will be proposed to establish a fee for the standardization activities of the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, and a licensing fee to cover the costs of administering these programs. Machine readable visa fee.—The State Department plans to increase machine readable visa (MRV) collection fees by more than 30 percent, from $45 to $65. Since 1996, MRVs have been available at all 221 U.S. visa issuing posts around the world. These visas provide increased border security control through the use of biometric technology. MRVs currently include digitized photographs and personal information related to the traveler. However, they have the capability to encode retinal images, fingerprints and other personal details, which can then be read electronically and relayed to other Federal agencies to be compared to other database information. Approximately 5 million visas are processed annually. Department of Commerce Patent and Trademark Office.—The Administration proposes changes to patent and trademark fee schedules effective in 2004 to fully support the PTO’s longterm objectives to reduce application processing times and increase patent and trademark quality. As a first step, the Administration is proposing a one-year surcharge on all patent and trademark fees in 2003 as a proxy for the draft legislation. International Trade Administration.—The Budget proposes an increase in fee collections of $10 million in 2003 and later years for ITA. In addition, ITA will study different fee options in 2002 to determine an appropriate model for cost recovery from firms that receive trade promotion services. Department of Health and Human Services User Fees for Medicare providers for paper claims and duplicate or unprocessable claims.—The Administration is proposing new user fees for providers submitting paper claims and duplicate or unprocessable claims. Under this proposal, providers would be charged $1.50 for every paper claim submitted for payment. The fee is necessary because processing paper claims is more costly than processing electronic claims. Paper claim fees would be waived for rural and poor providers. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and its contractors go to great lengths to ensure that providers are aware of billing requirements and the need to submit accurate claims. Charging a fee for duplicate or unprocessable claims would heighten provider awareness of these issues and increase efficiency by deterring this action. Fees for the review of new prescription drugs.—The Administration is proposing the reauthorization of the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA). Originally Commodity Futures Trading Commission Fees on each round-turn commodities futures and options transactions.—The Commodities Futures Trading Commission regulates U.S. futures and options markets. It strives to protect investors by preventing fraud and abuse and ensuring adequate disclosure of information. The President’s Budget includes a fee on each round-turn commodities futures and options transaction that will be phased in during 2003. This proposal recognizes that market participants derive direct benefits from CFTC’s oversight, which provides legal certainty and contributes to the integrity and soundness of the markets. Federal Trade Commission Do Not Call List fee.—The Federal Trade Commission is proposing new fees that will be assessed, collected and used to cover costs of developing, implementing and maintaining a national database of telephone numbers of consumers who choose not to receive telephone solicitations, as authorized by the Telephone Consumer and Abuse Prevention Act. 2. Offsetting receipts Department of Transportation Hazardous materials transportation safety fees.—Beginning in 2003, hazardous materials transportation safety activities previously financed by general fund appropriations to the Research and Special Programs Administration are proposed to be financed instead by an increase in hazardous materials registration fees. Appropriation language is proposed to increase the fees 88 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 5–3. USER FEE PROPOSALS (Estimated collections in millions of dollars) 2003 DISCRETIONARY 1. Offsetting collections Department of Agriculture Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service ................................................................................................................ Grain Inspection, Packers, and Stockyards Administration ......................................................................................... Department of Commerce Patent and Trademark Office: Increase current fees and raise fee rates .................................................................. International Trade Administration: Increased fee revenues for export promotion ..................................................... Department of Health and Human Services User fees for Medicare providers for paper claims and duplicate or unprocessable claims ..................................... Food and Drug Administration: Fees for the review of new prescription drugs ........................................................ Department of State Machine readable visa fee ............................................................................................................................................ Commodity Futures Trading Commission Fees on each round-turn commodities futures and options transactions ................................................................... Federal Trade Commission Do Not Call List fee ...................................................................................................................................................... 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 5 29 5 29 5 29 5 29 5 29 25 145 ............ 10 136 10 79 10 40 10 40 10 295 50 130 272 130 272 130 272 130 272 130 272 650 1,360 139 144 150 155 161 749 33 70 73 78 83 337 3 3 3 3 3 15 6 59 165 25 120 330 25 122 336 25 124 342 25 127 349 106 552 1,522 250 ............ ............ ............ ............ 250 363 381 400 420 441 2,005 2. Offsetting receipts Department of Transportation Hazardous materials transportation safety fees ........................................................................................................... Railroad safety inspection fees ..................................................................................................................................... Coast Guard commercial navigation assistance fee .................................................................................................... Department of the Treasury Customs Service air/sea passenger fee and cruise vessel fee .................................................................................. Department of Veterans Affairs Implement $1,500 deductible for priority level 7 (non-disabled, higher income) veterans for health care ............... Environmental Protection Agency Abolish cap on pre-manufacturing notification fees ..................................................................................................... Nuclear Regulatory Commission Extend NRC fees at their 2005 level for 2006 and later ............................................................................................ 4 8 8 8 8 36 ............ ............ ............ 345 357 702 Subtotal, discretionary fee proposals ....................................................................................................................... 1,468 1,663 1,642 1,986 2,040 8,799 MANDATORY 1. Offsetting collections Federal Emergency Managment Agency Flood insurance fees ..................................................................................................................................................... 8 43 83 130 191 455 ............ ............ ............ 72 3 ............ 72 10 43 74 14 44 74 15 44 292 42 131 ............ ............ 43 44 44 131 6 11 16 21 21 75 ............ ............ ............ ............ 500 500 Subtotal, mandatory user fee proposals .................................................................................................................. 14 129 267 327 889 1,626 Total, user fee proposals ..................................................................................................................................... 1,482 1,792 1,909 2,313 2,929 10,425 2. Offsetting receipts Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service user fees ............................................................................................................ Forest Service ski fee permits ...................................................................................................................................... Forest Service recreation and entrance fees ............................................................................................................... Department of the Interior Recreation and entrance fees ...................................................................................................................................... Corps of Engineers Recreation user fees ..................................................................................................................................................... Federal Communications Commission Analog spectrum lease fee .......................................................................................................................................... paid by shippers and carriers of hazardous materials in 2003 to fund these safety activities. Railroad safety inspection fee.—This proposal would fund Federal Railroad Administration safety inspections and the safety component of the railroad research and development program. The fees would be collected from the primary beneficiaries of these services, the railroad carriers, and be based upon a calculation of their usage as established through regulations. The estimated 2003 collections are 50 percent of the anticipated cost of safety services. In subsequent years these services would be fully funded with user fees. . Coast Guard commercial navigation assistance fee.— This proposal would partially recover the costs of providing Coast Guard navigational assistance services. The fees would be collected from the primary beneficiaries of these services, which are commercial cargo and cruise vessels. The estimated 2003 collections assume a six month implementation period for this new fee and represent 50 percent of the anticipated full year receipts. 89 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS Department of the Treasury Customs Service air/sea passenger fee and cruise vessel fee.—The Administration proposes an increase in two of the user fees collected by the Customs Service. The air/sea passenger fee was established in 1986 at $5.00 per passenger. The cruise vessel passenger fee was established at $1.75 per passenger. The receipts from these fees are used to pay for Customs’ overtime inspections and related expenses. The air/sea fee would increase to $11 per passenger. The cruise vessel fee would increase to $2 per passenger. The new fee levels would help to offset higher costs incurred by the Customs Service. Department of Veterans Affairs Implement a $1,500 deductible for priority level 7 veterans for health care.—The budget request includes a proposal to establish a $1,500 annual deductible for priority level 7 veterans (non-disabled, higher-income). This proposal is in response to the significant growth in enrollment and usage by priority level 7 veterans over the last 3 years, as well as anticipated future growth. The objective is to have these veterans pay a larger portion of the cost of their health care. Coupled with the recent increase in pharmacy copayments and decrease in outpatient care copayments, this proposal makes certain that VA’s health care system is able to continue providing high-quality health care to its core population—disabled and low-income veterans. Environmental Protection Agency Abolish cap on pre-manufacturing notification fees.— EPA collects fees from chemical manufacturers seeking to bring new chemicals into commerce. These fees are authorized by the Toxic Substances Control Act and are now subject to an outdated statutory cap. The Administration is proposing appropriations language to modify the cap so that EPA can increase fees to fully cover the cost of the program. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Extend NRC fees at their 2005 level for 2006 and later.—The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA) of 1990, as amended, required that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) assess license and annual fees that recover approximately 94 percent of its budget authority in 2003, less the appropriation from the Nuclear Waste Fund. Licensees are required to reimburse NRC for its services, because licensees benefit from such services. Under OBRA, as amended, the budget authority recovery requirement decreases by 2 percentage points per year until it reaches 90 percent in 2005. After 2005, the requirement reverts to 33 percent per year. If the 90 percent requirement is not extended beyond 2005, fees would drop from an estimated $528 million in 2005 to $200 million in 2006; with an extension at 90 percent, fees would be an estimated $545 million in 2006, an increase of $345 million. B. User Fee Spending 1. Proposals to Offset Mandatory Offsetting collections Federal Emergency Management Agency Flood insurance fees.—The Administration proposes to phase out subsidized premiums for flood insurance for vacation homes, rental properties, and other nonprimary residences. Insurance rates for primary residences, which represent the majority of the program’s policies, would not change under these proposal. In addition, the Administration proposes to include the cost of expected erosion losses for flood insurance policies in coastal areas, require that mortgage borrowers insure the full replacement value of their properties, and end State taxation of flood insurance polices. 2. Offsetting receipts Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service.—Legislation will be proposed replacing the existing overtime fee structure with a revised structure that would distribute fees more proportionately between large and small plants. Overtime fees would also apply to all inspection hours provided after one eight hour shift. However, since the goal of the proposed fee is equity, rather than revenue, the costs for the overtime would be shared with the Federal Government paying 50 percent of the total overtime costs. In addition to overtime fees, the legislative proposal would recover some overhead costs by charging all plants an annual fee in direct proportion to the plants volume of output. The funds collected would be available without appropriation to cover food safety-related activities and research. Forest Service ski fees permits.—This proposal would require the receipt of fair market value from use and occupancy of ski resorts on national forest lands. The proposal would amend the Omnibus Parks and Public Lands Management Act (P.L. 104–333), which established a new fee schedule for ski resorts on National Forest System lands. The amendment would adjust percentages of gross revenue that determine fees to the Government. Funds collected are available for forest restoration of landscapes impacted by ski resorts. Forest Service recreation and entrance fees.—The Administration proposes to permanently extend the current pilot program that allows the Forest Service to collect increased recreation and entrance fees. These receipts would be available for use without further appropriation and are necessary to maintain and improve recreation facilities and services. A similar proposal affects recreation fees for the National Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Fish and Wildlife Service in the Department of the Interior. Department of the Interior Recreation and entrance fees.—The Administration proposes to extend permanently the current recreation fee demonstration program. Since 1996, this program 90 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES has allowed the National Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the Fish and Wildlife Service to collect increased recreation and entrance fees and spend the receipts without further appropriation on facility improvements, visitor programs, and other services. At least half of the National Park Service receipts will be used to address deferred maintenance needs. A related proposal affects recreation fees for the Forest Service in the Department of Agriculture. Corps of Engineers Recreation user fees.—The Administration proposes to phase in recreation user fee increases with the entire increase available without further legislative action for spending on operation, maintenance, and improvements of the recreation facilities of the Corps of Engineers, many of which are obsolete. Legislation will be required to increase limits on existing recreation user fees, au- thorize new fees, or reclassify existing fees. In addition, the Administration recommends extending the recreation demonstration program, which makes available to the Corps without further appropriation recreation fee revenues above a baseline of $34 million per year, to be used for operation and maintenance of its recreation facilities. The Corps spends about $250 million annually on these activities. Federal Communications Commission Analog spectrum lease fee.—The Administration proposes authorizing the FCC to establish an annual lease fee totaling $500 million for the use of analog spectrum by commercial broadcasters beginning in 2007, to facilitate the clearing of analog television broadcast spectrum and provide taxpayers some compensation for use of this scarce resource. OTHER OFFSETTING COLLECTIONS AND RECEIPTS Table 5–4 shows that total offsetting collections and receipts from the public are estimated to be $231.2 billion in 2003. Of these, an estimated $149.3 billion are offsetting collections credited to appropriation accounts and an estimated $81.9 billion are deposited in offsetting receipt accounts. The user fees in Table 5–4 were discussed in the previous section. Major offsetting collections deposited in expenditure accounts that are not user fees are precredit reform loan repayments, collections from States to supplement payments in the supplemental security income program, and collections for the Federal Savings and Loan resolution fund. Major offsetting receipts that are not user fees include spectrum auction receipts, military assistance program sales, rents and royalties for oil and gas on the Outer Continental Shelf, and interest income. Table 5–5 includes all offsetting receipts deposited in receipt accounts. These include payments from one part of the Government to another, called intragovernmental transactions, and collections from the public. These receipts are offset (deducted) from outlays in the Federal budget. In total, offsetting receipts are estimated to be $511.5 billion in 2003— $429.6 billion are intragovernmental transactions, and $81.9 billion are from the public, shown in the table as proprietary receipts from the public and offsetting governmental receipts. As noted above, offsetting collections and receipts by agency are also displayed in Table 21–1, ‘‘Outlays to the Public, Net and Gross,’’ which appears in Chapter 21 of this volume. 91 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS Table 5–4. OFFSETTING COLLECTIONS AND RECEIPTS FROM THE PUBLIC (In millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2003 Offsetting collections credited to expenditure accounts: User fees: Postal service stamps and other postal fees ......................................................................................................................................... Defense Commissary Agency ................................................................................................................................................................. Employee contributions for employees and retired employees health benefits funds 1 ........................................................................ Sale of energy: Tennessee Valley Authority ................................................................................................................................................................. Bonneville Power Administration ......................................................................................................................................................... All other user fees ................................................................................................................................................................................... 64,871 5,083 5,855 67,794 73,727 5,101 5,351 6,503 ...................... 7,326 3,937 14,880 7,348 3,697 16,942 7,205 3,616 18,871 Subtotal, user fees .............................................................................................................................................................................. Other collections credited to expenditure accounts: Pre-credit reform loan repayments .......................................................................................................................................................... Supplemental security income (collections from the States) ................................................................................................................. Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation resolution fund ....................................................................................................... Other collections ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 101,952 107,385 108,770 14,078 3,160 1,688 19,386 14,851 3,797 1,243 20,082 13,551 3,937 267 22,786 Subtotal, other collections ................................................................................................................................................................... 38,312 39,973 40,541 Subtotal, offsetting collections credited to expenditure accounts .......................................................................................................... 140,264 147,358 149,311 User fees: Medicare premiums .................................................................................................................................................................................. 23,748 25,622 Employee contributions for employees and retired employees health benefits funds 1 ........................................................................ ...................... ...................... All other user fees .................................................................................................................................................................................. 6,420 7,178 27,347 8,264 8,308 Offsetting receipts: Subtotal, user fees deposited in receipt accounts ............................................................................................................................. Other collections deposited in receipt accounts: Spectrum auction receipts ...................................................................................................................................................................... Military assistance program sales .......................................................................................................................................................... OCS rents, bonuses, and royalties ........................................................................................................................................................ Interest income ....................................................................................................................................................................................... All other collections deposited in receipt accounts ............................................................................................................................... 30,168 32,800 43,919 1,024 10,229 7,194 12,175 19,497 530 10,300 3,806 12,513 16,086 460 10,410 2,832 13,887 10,402 Subtotal, other collections deposited in receipt accounts .............................................................................................................................. 50,119 43,235 37,991 Subtotal, collections deposited in receipt accounts ................................................................................................................................... 80,287 76,035 81,910 Total, offsetting collections and receipts from the public ....................................................................................................................... 220,551 223,393 231,221 Total, offsetting collections and receipts excluding off-budget .............................................................................................................. 155,554 155,454 157,344 ADDENDUM: User fees that are offsetting collections and receipts 2 ................................................................................................................................. Other offsetting collections and receipts from the public .............................................................................................................................. 132,120 88,431 140,185 83,208 152,689 78,532 Total, offsetting collections and receipts from the public ...................................................................................................................... 220,551 223,393 231,221 1 Beginning in 2003, amounts received by the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP), previously treated as offsetting collections, are now treated as offsetting receipts. This reflects a change in the FEHBP from a trust revolving fund to a special fund and is consistent with the President’s proposed Managerial Flexibility Act. 2 Excludes user fees that are classified on the receipts side of the budget. For total user fees, see Table 5.1 or Table 5.2. 92 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 5–5. OFFSETTING RECEIPTS BY TYPE (In millions of dollars) Source INTRAGOVERNMENTAL TRANSACTIONS On-budget receipts: Federal intrafund transactions: Distributed by agency: Interest from the Federal Financing Bank ................................................................... Interest on Government capital in enterprises ............................................................ Interest received by retirement and health benefits funds ......................................... General fund payments to retirement and health benefits funds: Employees health benefits fund .............................................................................. DoD retiree health care fund ................................................................................... Miscellaneous Federal retirement funds 1 ............................................................... Subsidy balance transfers ............................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................................................. Undistributed by agency: Employing agency contributions: Employees health benefits fund .............................................................................. DoD retiree health care fund ................................................................................... Miscellaneous Federal retirement funds .................................................................. 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2,157 1,930 1,091 1,095 .................. .................. 2003 1,484 1,075 773 2004 1,724 1,047 1,335 2005 2,044 1,165 1,899 2006 2,342 932 2,491 2007 2,230 826 3,112 .................. .................. 11,622 11,026 11,026 11,026 11,026 .................. .................. 16,351 24,455 27,034 29,816 32,817 .................. .................. 888 893 902 912 923 4,026 909 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 3,323 2,403 2,475 2,538 2,661 2,779 2,896 .................. .................. .................. .................. 8,219 8,683 16,404 8,312 279 17,475 15,475 331 18,587 16,416 288 19,800 17,418 285 21,168 18,500 286 Total Federal intrafunds ................................................................................................ 18,816 15,020 59,663 76,299 82,022 87,801 93,784 Trust intrafund transactions: Distributed by agency: Payments to railroad retirement ................................................................................... Other ............................................................................................................................. 3,283 1 3,863 1 3,854 1 3,807 1 3,808 1 3,658 1 3,911 1 Total trust intrafunds ..................................................................................................... 3,284 3,864 3,855 3,808 3,809 3,659 3,912 Total intrafund transactions .............................................................................................. 22,100 18,884 63,518 80,107 85,831 91,460 97,696 Interfund transactions: Distributed by agency: Federal fund payments to trust funds: Contributions to insurance programs: Military retirement fund ........................................................................................ 16,089 17,047 Supplementary medical insurance ....................................................................... 69,838 77,295 Proposed Legislation (non-PAYGO) .................................................................... .................. .................. Hospital insurance ................................................................................................ 5,594 11,544 Railroad social security equivalent fund ............................................................. 98 95 Rail industry pension fund ................................................................................... 229 242 Civilian supplementary retirement contributions .................................................. 21,890 22,399 Unemployment insurance .................................................................................... 432 517 Other contributions ............................................................................................... 560 482 17,643 80,905 –19 9,423 100 254 29,660 531 506 18,261 84,790 –1 9,807 103 265 29,666 526 508 18,900 90,003 102 10,385 106 275 29,669 522 535 19,563 96,284 74 10,963 109 284 29,672 526 533 20,247 103,019 54 11,657 114 296 29,674 541 536 139,003 143,925 150,497 158,008 166,138 Subtotal ................................................................................................................ 114,730 129,621 Miscellaneous payments .......................................................................................... 1,520 930 Proposed Legislation (non-PAYGO) ........................................................................ .................. .................. Subtotal ..................................................................................................................... 116,250 130,551 988 944 901 882 865 2,066 .................. .................. .................. .................. 142,057 144,869 151,398 158,890 167,003 Trust fund payments to Federal funds: Quinquennial adjustment for military service credits .............................................. 836 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Other ......................................................................................................................... 2,301 1,141 1,171 1,193 1,217 1,242 1,278 Proposed Legislation (non-PAYGO) ........................................................................ .................. .................. 1,606 –446 –435 –430 –427 Subtotal ..................................................................................................................... 3,137 1,141 2,777 747 782 812 851 Total interfunds distributed by agency ......................................................................... 119,387 131,692 144,834 145,616 152,180 159,702 167,854 Undistributed by agency: Employer share, employee retirement (on-budget): Civil service retirement and disability insurance ..................................................... CSRDI from Postal Service ..................................................................................... Hospital insurance (contribution as employer) 2 ..................................................... Postal employer contributions to FHI ...................................................................... Military retirement fund ............................................................................................. 10,072 6,600 2,031 673 11,371 10,612 6,780 2,183 711 12,491 14,233 6,932 2,299 733 11,934 14,599 7,089 2,402 756 12,396 14,956 7,320 2,538 781 12,911 15,239 7,555 2,645 808 13,383 15,475 7,745 2,755 836 13,847 93 5. USER FEES AND OTHER COLLECTIONS Table 5–5. OFFSETTING RECEIPTS BY TYPE—Continued (In millions of dollars) Source 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Other Federal employees retirement ....................................................................... 136 134 138 142 147 152 157 Total employer share, employee retirement (on-budget) ........................................ 30,883 32,911 36,269 37,384 38,653 39,782 40,815 Interest received by on-budget trust funds ............................................................. 75,302 74,287 Proposed Legislation (non-PAYGO) ........................................................................ .................. .................. 77,254 –9 80,145 –44 83,559 –93 87,259 –149 91,793 –204 Total interfund transactions undistributed by agency .................................................. 106,185 107,198 113,514 117,485 122,119 126,892 132,404 Total interfund transactions .............................................................................................. 225,572 238,890 258,348 263,101 274,299 286,594 300,258 Total on-budget receipts ....................................................................................................... 247,672 257,774 321,866 343,208 360,130 378,054 397,954 12,528 13,478 14,282 15,149 16,041 16,841 17,990 7,910 68,811 9,243 76,822 9,564 83,849 10,232 92,029 11,034 101,015 11,744 110,959 12,448 122,109 Total off-budget receipts: ...................................................................................................... 89,249 99,543 107,695 117,410 128,090 139,544 152,547 Total intragovernmental transactions ................................................................................... 336,921 357,317 429,561 460,618 488,220 517,598 550,501 PROPRIETARY RECEIPTS FROM THE PUBLIC Distributed by agency: Interest: Interest on foreign loans and deferred foreign collections .............................................. Interest on deposits in tax and loan accounts ................................................................ Other interest (domestic—civil) 3 ...................................................................................... 576 951 10,647 651 451 11,411 639 585 12,663 633 585 13,283 625 585 13,770 608 585 14,238 632 585 14,659 Total interest ...................................................................................................................... 12,174 12,513 13,887 14,501 14,980 15,431 15,876 Off-budget receipts: Trust intrafund transactions: Distributed by agency: Interfund transactions: Distributed by agency: Federal fund payments to trust funds: Old-age, survivors, and disability insurance ............................................................ Undistributed by agency: Employer share, employee retirement (off-budget) ................................................. Interest received by off-budget trust funds ............................................................. Dividends and other earnings ........................................................................................... .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Royalties and rents ............................................................................................................... 2,235 1,458 1,494 1,551 1,526 1,604 1,635 Sale of products: Sale of timber and other natural land products ............................................................... 218 623 635 400 407 397 387 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. .................. .................. 3 10 14 15 Sale of minerals and mineral products ............................................................................ 31 27 30 33 32 32 30 Sale of power and other utilities ...................................................................................... 562 721 683 695 695 714 717 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. .................. –149 –149 –150 –150 –150 Other 3 ............................................................................................................................... 73 89 77 77 77 77 77 Total sale of products ....................................................................................................... 884 1,460 1,276 1,059 1,071 1,084 1,076 Fees and other charges for services and special benefits: Medicare premiums and other charges (trust funds) ...................................................... 23,748 25,622 27,347 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. .................. .................. Employees health benefits premiums .............................................................................. .................. .................. 8,352 Nuclear waste disposal revenues ..................................................................................... 689 640 647 Veterans life insurance (trust funds) ................................................................................ 194 198 184 Other 3 ............................................................................................................................... 2,409 3,124 3,480 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. .................. 6 29,013 35 9,077 612 170 3,780 93 30,984 82 9,717 637 154 3,808 189 33,152 95 10,380 621 139 3,990 207 35,529 23 11,121 609 125 4,133 208 Total fees and other charges ........................................................................................... 27,040 29,584 40,016 42,780 45,571 48,584 51,748 Sale of Government property: Sale of land and other real property 3 ............................................................................. Military assistance program sales (trust funds) ............................................................... Other .................................................................................................................................. 86 10,229 358 150 10,300 759 412 10,410 90 110 10,380 65 110 10,570 66 110 10,730 41 107 10,890 7 Total sale of Government property .................................................................................. 10,673 11,209 10,912 10,555 10,746 10,881 11,004 94 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 5–5. OFFSETTING RECEIPTS BY TYPE—Continued (In millions of dollars) Estimate 2001 Actual Source 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Realization upon loans and investments: Negative subsidies and downward reestimates ............................................................... Repayment of loans to foreign nations ............................................................................ Other .................................................................................................................................. 8,627 291 83 6,027 71 117 751 85 97 757 88 93 764 94 89 773 108 85 748 25 83 Total realization upon loans and investments ................................................................. 9,001 6,215 933 938 947 966 856 Recoveries and refunds 3 ...................................................................................................... 3,730 2,780 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ............................................................................................ .................. .................. Miscellaneous receipt accounts 3 .......................................................................................... 2,293 1,909 2,882 7 1,916 3,011 14 1,924 3,119 –103 1,928 3,201 –164 1,941 3,305 –172 1,945 73,323 76,333 79,785 83,528 87,273 Total proprietary receipts from the public distributed by agency ........................................ 68,030 67,128 Undistributed by agency: Other interest: Interest received from Outer Continental Shelf escrow account ................ 1 .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. .................. Rents, bonuses, and royalties: Outer Continental Shelf rents and bonuses ..................................................................... 719 834 466 509 427 396 347 Outer Continental Shelf royalties ...................................................................................... 6,475 2,972 2,366 2,443 3,243 3,573 3,671 Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ........................................................................................ .................. .................. .................. 2,402 2 202 2 Sale of major assets ............................................................................................................. .................. .................. .................. .................. 323 .................. .................. Total proprietary receipts from the public undistributed by agency .................................... 7,195 3,806 2,832 5,354 3,995 4,171 4,020 Total proprietary receipts from the public 4 ........................................................................ 75,225 70,934 76,155 81,687 83,780 87,699 91,293 4,739 313 243 3,015 128 409 3,056 130 416 3,111 132 423 3,168 135 431 4,510 –4,050 10,565 3,350 8,770 2,700 675 4,700 680 500 OFFSETTING GOVERNMENTAL RECEIPTS Distributed by agency: Regulatory fees 3 ................................................................................................................... 3,964 4,494 Proposed Legislation (non-PAYGO) ..................................................................................... .................. .................. Other ...................................................................................................................................... 74 77 Undistributed by agency: Spectrum auction proceeds .................................................................................................. 1,024 530 Proposed Legislation (PAYGO) ............................................................................................ .................. .................. Total offsetting governmental receipts .................................................................................. 5,062 5,101 5,755 17,467 15,072 9,041 4,914 Total offsetting receipts .......................................................................................................... 417,208 433,352 511,471 559,772 587,072 614,338 646,708 1 2001 and 2002 amounts are offsets for the Administration’s retirement acrual proposal. 2 Includes provision for covered Federal civilian employees and military personnel. 3 Includes both Federal funds and trust funds. 4 Consists of: MEMORANDUM Composition of proprietary receipts from the public 2001 Actual On-budget: Federal funds .................................. Trust funds ...................................... Off-budget ............................................ 39,952 35,190 83 Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 33,366 37,489 79 36,428 39,646 81 40,180 41,423 84 40,076 43,618 86 41,639 45,972 88 42,775 48,427 91 6. TAX EXPENDITURES The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93–344) requires that a list of ‘‘tax expenditures’’ be included in the budget. Tax expenditures are defined in the law as ‘‘revenue losses attributable to provisions of the Federal tax laws which allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or which provide a special credit, a preferential rate of tax, or a deferral of liability.’’ The Act suggests that tax expenditures are exceptions to some norm or standard tax concept that is not specified in the law. Hence, different analyses may use different baseline tax structures; indeed, the budget presentation here provides tax expenditure estimates measured against more than one baseline. Due, in part, to the degree of arbitrariness in the tax expenditure baseline, the Administration believes the meaningfulness of tax expenditure estimates is uncertain and that the ‘‘tax expenditure’’ presentation can be improved by consideration of alternative or additional tax bases. A description of an ongoing Treasury study to reevaluate the tax expenditure concept is presented at the beginning of this chapter. The tax expenditure estimates and related discussion following the description of this study, however, are based on materials and formats developed and included in previous budgets. Tax expenditure estimates under the unified transfer (i.e., estate and gift) tax have been eliminated from the presentation because there is no generally accepted normal baseline for transfer taxes and this tax has been repealed under the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA). The largest reported tax expenditures tend to be associated with the individual income tax. For example, sizeable deferrals, deductions and exclusions are provided for pension contributions and earnings, employer contributions for medical insurance, mortgage interest payments on owner-occupied homes, capital gains, and payments of State and local individual income and property taxes. Reported tax expenditures under the corporate income tax tend to be related to timing differences in the rate of cost recovery for various investments; as is discussed below, the extent to which these provisions are classified as tax expenditures varies according to the conceptual baseline used. Each tax expenditure estimate in this chapter was calculated assuming other parts of the tax code remained unchanged. The estimates would be different if all tax expenditures or major groups of tax expenditures were changed simultaneously because of potential interactions among provisions. For that reason, this chapter does not present a grand total for the estimated tax expenditures. Moreover, past tax changes entailing broad elimination of tax expenditures were generally accompanied by changes in tax rates or other basic provisions, so that the net effects on Federal revenues were considerably (if not totally) offset. Tax expenditures relating to the individual and corporate income taxes are estimated for fiscal years 2001–2007 using three methods of accounting: revenue effects, outlay equivalent, and present value. The present value approach provides estimates of the revenue effects for tax expenditures that involve deferrals of tax payments into the future or have similar longterm effects. The section of the chapter on performance measures and economic effects presents information related to assessment of the effect of tax expenditures on the achievement of program performance goals. This section is a complement to the government-wide performance plan required by the Government Performance and Results Act of 1993. FUTURE REVISIONS TO THE TAX EXPENDITURE PRESENTATION Policymakers and researchers have long recognized that certain income tax code provisions have policy purposes other than simply raising revenue and that it is useful to understand better the nature of these provisions. It is important to know the amounts of revenue associated with them, whether they are achieving desired results, and their consequences for the economy. The answers to these questions are important simply as a source of information, but also so that policymakers and the public can review these features of the income tax regularly to see if change is warranted. Thus it was that in 1974 the Congress mandated as part of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 that the annual Federal budget presentation include a list of ‘‘tax expenditures’’, where tax expenditures were defined as: ...those revenue losses attributable to provisions of the Federal tax laws which allow a special exclusion, exemption, or deduction from gross income or which provide a special credit, a preferential rate of tax, or a deferral of tax liability.... Though imperfect, the tax expenditure budget has expanded our understanding of policy programs operating through the Federal income tax and, more generally, the workings of the Federal income tax. The complexity of our economy and society on the one hand, and the complexity of the income tax on the other, suggest the need for a variety of analyses 95 96 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES to understand their interaction better. The Treasury Department has begun an effort to review the tax expenditure presentation, and will be considering possible revisions and improvements in methodology and approach. The need for this effort was raised in the President’s Fiscal Year 2002 budget submission, which noted that the current tax expenditure analysis was developed relative to an arbitrary tax base and that: Because of the breadth of this arbitrary tax base, the Administration believes that the concept of ‘‘tax expenditure’’ is of questionable analytic value. 1 This review is intended to improve the quality and range of information available regarding the Federal income tax and its effects on the economy. The Treasury Department’s efforts in this area will continue over the coming year, assisted by public debate and comment. The Need for Change The definition of the baseline against which tax expenditures are measured is crucial to the definition and calculation of tax expenditures. For purposes of calculating tax expenditures, the 1974 Budget Act did not specify the provisions of the baseline tax law, which, quoting further from the Fiscal Year 2002 budget, means that: ‘‘Deciding whether provisions are exceptions (from the normal baseline), therefore, is a matter of judgement.’’ As the normal baseline and deviations from the baseline are constructed from a set of potentially subjective judgements, differences of opinion can arise as to the correct classification of specific provisions of the tax code. While the normal baseline follows a theoretically appealing measure of a comprehensive income tax in many ways, it deviates in other important ways. These deviations may reflect judgements along a number of dimensions, including administrative concerns, political judgements, social policy, and historical methods of taxing income. But these deviations inject a degree of subjectivity that can limit the value of the underlying analysis. One problem with injecting subjective elements into the definition of the baseline income tax is that common notions of what constitutes a ‘‘normal’’ income tax will change over time. For example, although the tax exemption for employer-provided pensions is labeled a tax expenditure, the growing presence of tax-deferred savings vehicles in the tax code suggests that these may today be part of ‘‘normal’’ income tax circa 2002. It is not clear, however, whether the ‘‘normal’’ income tax of 2002 is more appropriate than that in place in any other year if one is interested in better understanding deviations of the current income tax from a more objective standard of a comprehensive income tax. A highly subjective baseline also may not inform policymakers and the public about those aspects of social or economic policy that are implemented through the tax code. The Federal income tax contains many provisions for providing income support for lower-income citi1 Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 2002, Chapter 5. zens. Examples include the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Work Opportunity Credit, and the Child Tax Credit. Each of these provisions is appropriately labeled a tax expenditure in the current tax expenditure presentation. The personal exemption, which cannot be claimed by higher-income taxpayers because of a phaseout of the exemption, however, is not presently labeled a tax expenditure although it can also be viewed as a component of the income support policies effected through the income tax. In many other ways, the ‘‘normal tax’’ baseline may fail to capture the extent to which the tax system serves such programmatic purposes. Finally, the public and policymakers are interested in the tax subsidies and excises imbedded in the tax code and their effects on individual behavior and on economic activity. Tax subsidies and excises arise when the relative prices of goods, services, or activities are distorted by the tax system. A highly subjective ‘‘normal tax’’ may shed little light on these issues. Because of the controversy that accompanies the existing ‘‘normal tax’’ concept, it may be appropriate to reconsider a comprehensive income tax as a baseline for the tax expenditure budget. Comprehensive income is a well-accepted theoretical concept, and so avoids some subjectivity that plagues the ‘‘normal tax’’ baseline. A comprehensive measure of income, however, would not eliminate all contentious issues. Any practical implementation of a comprehensive tax base would involve judgements, e.g., about which items of theoretical income or expense are too abstract or difficult to estimate to include in the baseline, but that other analysts may see as necessary. Focus of the Reconsideration and Revision Effort The effort to improve the tax expenditure presentation will focus on three aspects. The first relates to the definition of an income tax or standard against which tax expenditures are identified and measured as discussed above. The study will consider redefining the baseline income concept to be more consistent with a comprehensive income tax base, as well as other alternative definitions of income. The study will also consider issues involved in estimating ‘‘negative’’ tax expenditures in addition to the conventional positive tax expenditures currently reported in the Budget. A negative tax expenditure arises whenever a tax provision causes a taxpayer to pay more tax than would be consistent with the baseline income tax. Negative tax expenditures have not been identified and calculated in the past, in part because they did not appear to relate to the original purpose of the tax expenditure analysis to identify implicit spending programs operating through the tax system. Nevertheless, negative tax expenditures provide an important additional perspective and may offer a useful source of information to analysts and policy makers. Academics and tax specialists have studied intensively whether the United States should adopt a con- 97 6. TAX EXPENDITURES sumption tax at the Federal level, either as a source of additional revenue, or in place of some or all of the current sources of Federal revenue. Though the existing Federal individual income tax is thought of as a tax on income, in many respects it has evolved into a hybrid tax containing some elements consistent both with a comprehensive income tax and a consumption tax, as well as many elements consistent with neither an income nor a consumption tax. Therefore, the third aspect of the Treasury’s effort will be to consider estimating tax expenditures relative to a hypothetical consumption tax, as well as relative to an income tax. This would allow a comparison of the Federal income tax vis-à-vis the two baseline systems. It would also serve to give additional perspective on the tax expenditure analysis by highlighting those provisions in the Federal income tax that may give rise to a tax expenditure or negative expenditure in one system but not in the other. When completed, this review can significantly improve the overall understanding of the effects of the Federal income tax on the economy. For example, reconsideration of the income tax baseline is intended to provide a baseline definition that can better capture the numerous ways in which the tax system influences economic behavior relative to a comprehensive income tax system. Similarly, the definition and calculation of negative tax expenditures can provide useful new information about those activities subject to a tax surcharge relative to the baseline tax. Viewing these negative tax expenditures alongside the traditional tax expenditure presentation can provide important context for the overall tax expenditure budget. The calculation of tax expenditures and negative tax expenditures relative to a consumption tax budget can provide further context for the traditional tax expenditure presentation while providing important new information about the effects of the tax system on the economy. Finally, a consumption tax base analysis can help illuminate some of the central issues that would arise in any effort to enact a Federal consumption tax. TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE INCOME TAX Tax Expenditure Estimates All tax expenditure estimates presented here are based upon current tax law enacted as of December 31, 2001. Expired or repealed provisions are not listed if their revenue effects result only from taxpayer activity occurring before fiscal year 2001. Due to the time required to estimate the large number of tax expenditures, the estimates are based on Mid-Session economic assumptions; exceptions are the earned income tax credit and child credit provisions, which involve outlay components and hence are updated to reflect the economic assumptions used elsewhere in the budget. The total revenue effects for tax expenditures for fiscal years 2001–2007 are displayed according to the budget’s functional categories in Table 6–1. Descriptions of the specific tax expenditure provisions follow the tables of estimates and the discussion of general features of the tax expenditure concept. As in prior years, two baseline concepts—the normal tax baseline and the reference tax law baseline—are used to identify tax expenditures. For the most part, the two concepts coincide. However, items treated as tax expenditures under the normal tax baseline, but not the reference tax law baseline, are indicated by the designation ‘‘normal tax method’’ in the tables. The revenue effects for these items are zero using the reference tax rules. The alternative baseline concepts are discussed in detail following the tables. Table 6–2 reports the respective portions of the total revenue effects that arise under the individual and corporate income taxes separately. The location of the estimates under the individual and corporate headings does not imply that these categories of filers benefit from the special tax provisions in proportion to the respective tax expenditure amounts shown. Rather, these breakdowns show the specific tax accounts through which the various provisions are cleared. The ultimate beneficiaries of corporate tax expenditures could be shareholders, employees, customers, or other providers of capital, depending on economic forces. Table 6–3 ranks the major tax expenditures by the size of their FY 2003 revenue effect. Interpreting Tax Expenditure Estimates The estimates shown for individual tax expenditures in Tables 6–1, 6–2, and 6–3 do not necessarily equal the increase in Federal revenues (or the change in the budget balance) that would result from repealing these special provisions, for the following reasons: Eliminating a tax expenditure may have incentive effects that alter economic behavior. These incentives can affect the resulting magnitudes of the activity or of other tax provisions or Government programs. For example, if deductibility of mortgage interest were limited, some taxpayers would hold smaller mortgages, with a concomitantly smaller effect on the budget than if no such limits were in force. Such indirect effects are not reflected in the estimates. Tax expenditures are interdependent even without incentive effects. Repeal of a tax expenditure provision can increase or decrease the tax revenues associated with other provisions. For example, even if behavior does not change, repeal of an itemized deduction could increase the revenue costs from other deductions because some taxpayers would be moved into higher tax brackets. Alternatively, repeal of an itemized deduction could lower the revenue cost from other deductions if taxpayers are led to claim the standard deduction instead of itemizing. Similarly, if two provisions were repealed simultaneously, the increase in tax liability could be greater or less than the sum of the two separate tax expenditures, because each is estimated assum- 98 ing that the other remains in force. In addition, the estimates reported in Table 6–1 are the totals of individual and corporate income tax revenue effects reported in Table 6–2 and do not reflect any possible interactions between the individual and corporate income tax receipts. For this reason, the estimates in Table 6–1 (as well as those in Table 6–5, which are also based on summing individual and corporate estimates) should be regarded as approximations. The annual value of tax expenditures for tax deferrals is reported on a cash basis in all tables except Table 6–4. Cash-based estimates reflect the difference between taxes deferred in the current year and incoming revenues that are received due to deferrals of taxes from prior years. Although such estimates are useful as a measure of cash flows into the Government, they do not accurately reflect the true economic cost of these provisions. For example, for a provision where activity levels have changed, so that incoming tax receipts from past deferrals are greater than deferred receipts from new activity, the cash-basis tax expenditure estimate can be negative, despite the fact that in present-value terms current deferrals do have a real cost to the Government. Alternatively, in the case of a newly enacted deferral provision, a cash-based estimate can overstate the real effect on receipts to the Government because ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES the newly deferred taxes will ultimately be received. Present-value estimates, which are a useful complement to the cash-basis estimates for provisions involving deferrals, are discussed below. Present-Value Estimates Discounted present-value estimates of revenue effects are presented in Table 6–4 for certain provisions that involve tax deferrals or other long-term revenue effects. These estimates complement the cash-based tax expenditure estimates presented in the other tables. The present-value estimates represent the revenue effects, net of future tax payments, that follow from activities undertaken during calendar year 2001 that cause the deferrals or other long-term revenue effects. For instance, a pension contribution in 2001 would cause a deferral of tax payments on wages in 2001 and on pension earnings on this contribution (e.g., interest) in later years. In some future year, however, the 2001 pension contribution and accrued earnings will be paid out and taxes will be due; these receipts are included in the present-value estimate. In general, this conceptual approach is similar to the one used for reporting the budgetary effects of credit programs, where direct loans and guarantees in a given year affect future cash flows. 99 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–1. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL INCOME TAX EXPENDITURES (In millions of dollars) Total from corporations and individuals 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 1 National Defense Exclusion of benefits and allowances to armed forces personnel ....................................................... 2,160 2,190 2,210 2,240 2,260 2,290 2,310 11,310 2 3 4 5 6 7 International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by U.S. citizens ........................................................................... Exclusion of certain allowances for Federal employees abroad .......................................................... Extraterritorial income exclusion ............................................................................................................. Inventory property sales source rules exception ................................................................................... Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations (normal tax method) .................................... Deferred taxes for financial firms on certain income earned overseas ................................................ 2,450 760 4,490 1,400 6,600 1,300 2,540 800 4,820 1,470 7,000 550 2,660 840 5,150 1,540 7,450 0 2,690 880 5,510 1,620 7,900 0 2,760 920 5,890 1,700 8,400 0 2,810 960 6,290 1,790 8,930 0 3,170 1,020 6,730 1,880 9,550 0 14,090 4,620 29,570 8,530 42,230 0 8 9 General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and experimentation expenditures (normal tax method) ................................. Credit for increasing research activities ................................................................................................. 2,020 5,370 1,780 6,010 2,380 4,590 2,880 4,020 3,400 2,330 3,910 990 4,160 410 16,730 12,350 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs, fuels ....................................................................... Excess of percentage over cost depletion, fuels .................................................................................. Alternative fuel production credit ............................................................................................................ Exception from passive loss limitation for working interests in oil and gas properties ....................... Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal .......................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on energy facility bonds ....................................................................................... Enhanced oil recovery credit .................................................................................................................. New technology credit ............................................................................................................................ Alcohol fuel credits 1 ............................................................................................................................... Tax credit and deduction for clean-fuel burning vehicles ..................................................................... Exclusion from income of conservation subsidies provided by public utilities ..................................... 50 250 900 20 100 90 310 60 30 50 70 60 260 850 20 100 90 360 80 30 50 70 70 270 410 20 110 100 440 100 30 50 70 90 290 130 20 120 120 530 100 30 20 70 90 300 130 20 120 130 640 100 30 –10 70 100 310 130 20 130 140 760 90 30 –50 70 100 320 130 20 140 150 910 90 30 –50 60 450 1,490 930 100 620 640 3,280 480 150 –40 340 21 22 23 24 25 26 Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals .................................................... Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals ............................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for water, sewage, and hazardous waste facilities ............................ Capital gains treatment of certain timber income ................................................................................. Expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs ..................................................................................... Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures ............................................................................ 10 250 400 100 360 180 10 260 420 100 360 200 10 270 440 110 370 210 10 290 480 120 380 220 10 300 530 120 390 230 10 300 580 130 400 240 10 310 630 140 410 250 50 1,470 2,660 620 1,950 1,150 27 28 29 30 31 32 Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays ...................................................................................................... Expensing of certain multiperiod production costs ................................................................................ Treatment of loans forgiven for solvent farmers ................................................................................... Capital gains treatment of certain income ............................................................................................. Income averaging for farmers ................................................................................................................ Deferral of gain on sale of farm refiners ............................................................................................... 170 120 10 990 70 10 170 130 10 1,040 70 10 170 130 10 1,100 70 10 170 130 10 1,160 70 10 170 120 10 1,220 80 10 170 120 10 1,290 80 10 170 120 10 1,360 80 10 850 620 50 6,130 380 50 1,000 60 16,290 10 220 100 1,070 50 17,710 10 230 100 1,150 30 19,250 10 250 100 1,230 20 20,940 10 260 100 1,320 10 22,780 10 280 100 1,420 0 24,790 10 290 100 1,530 0 26,930 10 300 100 6,650 60 114,690 50 1,380 500 800 160 64,510 22,410 1,040 19,090 4,800 3,220 5,190 830 170 64,190 22,680 1,050 19,670 4,400 3,330 5,440 870 180 66,110 23,580 1,080 20,260 4,070 3,460 5,710 960 200 68,070 23,210 1,100 20,860 3,780 3,630 5,790 1,050 220 70,870 20,330 1,120 21,490 3,530 3,810 5,800 1,140 240 73,560 16,300 1,140 22,140 3,290 3,980 5,720 1,240 260 76,870 14,410 1,160 22,800 3,090 4,130 5,800 5,260 1,100 355,480 97,830 5,600 107,550 17,760 19,010 28,820 30 80 67,800 70 26,540 530 40 4,540 30 80 61,810 100 27,610 600 40 4,560 30 80 60,200 130 28,710 680 40 4,240 40 80 56,990 160 29,860 760 50 3,960 40 80 56,180 210 31,050 900 50 3,800 40 80 50,670 250 32,300 1,080 50 4,160 40 80 49,880 300 33,590 1,130 50 4,880 190 400 273,920 1,050 155,510 4,550 240 21,040 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 Commerce and housing: Financial institutions and insurance: Exemption of credit union income ..................................................................................................... Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions ............................................................................ Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings ................................................................................. Special alternative tax on small property and casualty insurance companies ................................ Tax exemption of certain insurance companies owned by tax-exempt organizations .................... Small life insurance company deduction ........................................................................................... Housing: Exclusion of interest on owner-occupied mortgage subsidy bonds ................................................. Exclusion of interest on rental housing bonds .................................................................................. Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes .......................................................... Deductibility of State and local property tax on owner-occupied homes ......................................... Deferral of income from post 1987 installment sales ....................................................................... Capital gains exclusion on home sales ............................................................................................. Exception from passive loss rules for $25,000 of rental loss .......................................................... Credit for low-income housing investments ....................................................................................... Accelerated depreciation on rental housing (normal tax method) .................................................... Commerce: Cancellation of indebtedness ............................................................................................................. Exceptions from imputed interest rules ............................................................................................. Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal) (normal tax method) ........................ Capital gains exclusion of small corporation stock ........................................................................... Step-up basis of capital gains at death ............................................................................................ Carryover basis of capital gains on gifts ........................................................................................... Ordinary income treatment of loss from small business corporation stock sale ............................. Accelerated depreciation of buildings other than rental housing (normal tax method) ................... 100 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–1. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL INCOME TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Total from corporations and individuals 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 56 57 58 59 60 Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment (normal tax method) ................................. Expensing of certain small investments (normal tax method) .......................................................... Amortization of start-up costs (normal tax method) .......................................................................... Graduated corporation income tax rate (normal tax method) .......................................................... Exclusion of interest on small issue bonds ....................................................................................... 37,860 1,670 130 4,940 310 37,130 1,430 160 5,590 310 36,480 1,420 200 6,210 330 36,790 1,390 240 6,580 360 37,430 1,360 250 7,120 390 38,520 1,480 270 7,450 430 40,930 1,720 270 7,880 470 190,150 7,370 1,230 35,240 1,980 61 62 63 Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies .................................................................................................. Exclusion of reimbursed employee parking expenses .......................................................................... Exclusion for employer-provided transit passes .................................................................................... 20 1,980 220 20 2,090 280 20 2,190 360 20 2,300 410 20 2,420 470 20 2,550 540 20 2,670 600 100 12,130 2,380 64 65 66 67 68 69 Community and regional development: Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) .................................................. Exclusion of interest for airport, dock, and similar bonds ..................................................................... Exemption of certain mutuals’ and cooperatives’ income ..................................................................... Empowerment zones, Enterprise communities, and Renewal communities ........................................ New markets tax credit ........................................................................................................................... Expensing of environmental remediation costs ..................................................................................... 30 630 60 380 10 80 30 640 60 730 90 100 30 680 60 1,130 190 100 30 750 60 1,170 290 20 30 820 70 1,280 430 –20 30 890 70 1,410 610 –10 30 980 70 1,580 830 –10 150 4,120 330 6,570 2,350 80 1,210 4,130 2,370 30 390 0 190 230 540 30 10 1,010 3,830 260 1,200 4,110 2,290 50 450 430 270 230 550 50 20 1,070 3,980 410 1,210 3,520 2,360 80 640 2,290 340 240 580 70 20 1,120 4,200 500 1,240 2,880 3,140 130 660 2,960 400 260 640 80 20 1,170 4,440 530 1,330 2,930 2,980 220 680 3,710 460 290 700 90 20 1,230 4,600 560 1,380 2,730 2,740 330 700 3,010 530 310 760 90 20 1,280 4,840 590 1,390 2,900 2,960 470 720 0 590 350 830 90 20 1,340 5,030 620 6,550 14,960 14,180 1,230 3,400 11,970 2,320 1,450 3,510 420 100 6,140 23,110 2,800 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 Education, training, employment, and social services: Education: Exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income (normal tax method) ............................................ HOPE tax credit .................................................................................................................................. Lifetime Learning tax credit ................................................................................................................ Education Individual Retirement Accounts ........................................................................................ Deductibility of student-loan interest .................................................................................................. Deduction for higher education expenses ......................................................................................... State prepaid tuition plans ................................................................................................................. Exclusion of interest on student-loan bonds ..................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for private nonprofit educational facilities ....................................... Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ....................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on savings bonds redeemed to finance educational expenses ..................... Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over ............................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) .......................................................................... Exclusion of employer-provided educational assistance ................................................................... Training, employment, and social services: Work opportunity tax credit ................................................................................................................ Welfare-to-work tax credit .................................................................................................................. Employer provided child care exclusion ............................................................................................ Employer-provided child care credit .................................................................................................. Assistance for adopted foster children .............................................................................................. Adoption credit and exclusion ............................................................................................................ Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) ...................................................... Child credit 2 ........................................................................................................................................ Credit for child and dependent care expenses ................................................................................. Credit for disabled access expenditures ........................................................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health ....................................... Exclusion of certain foster care payments ........................................................................................ Exclusion of parsonage allowances ................................................................................................... 300 90 720 0 190 130 710 19,840 2,670 50 30,150 500 350 230 70 740 40 220 140 740 19,760 2,610 50 30,810 510 370 140 40 770 90 250 220 780 19,680 2,670 50 32,080 520 400 60 20 810 130 260 450 810 19,550 2,960 50 33,830 530 420 30 10 930 150 270 500 850 20,550 2,700 60 35,190 540 450 10 0 1,020 150 280 540 890 21,530 2,150 60 36,890 570 470 0 0 1,080 160 290 560 930 21,240 1,920 60 38,290 610 490 240 70 4,610 680 1,350 2,270 4,260 102,550 12,400 280 176,280 2,770 2,230 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care ................... Self-employed medical insurance premiums ......................................................................................... Workers’ compensation insurance premiums ........................................................................................ Medical Savings Accounts ...................................................................................................................... Deductibility of medical expenses .......................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on hospital construction bonds ............................................................................ Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) .................................................................................... Tax credit for orphan drug research ...................................................................................................... Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield deduction ............................................................................................. 82,800 1,520 4,730 20 4,990 1,100 4,010 140 270 90,910 1,730 4,870 20 5,260 1,130 4,180 150 300 99,260 2,420 5,080 20 5,530 1,190 4,420 170 340 106,940 3,570 5,230 20 5,840 1,310 4,690 190 310 115,380 3,870 5,410 20 6,280 1,440 4,850 220 300 124,050 4,170 5,570 20 6,600 1,570 5,100 240 270 134,960 4,430 5,790 20 7,100 1,700 5,320 270 300 580,590 18,460 27,080 100 31,350 7,210 24,380 1,090 1,520 380 5,560 370 70 110 390 5,810 380 70 120 400 6,070 400 60 120 400 6,320 410 60 120 400 6,600 430 60 130 400 6,900 450 50 130 400 7,200 470 50 140 2,000 33,090 2,160 280 640 42,070 44,080 48,070 52,960 53,080 59,510 54,500 62,770 55,630 65,290 58,980 69,230 63,320 73,320 285,510 330,120 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 Income security: Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits ................................................................................... Exclusion of workers’ compensation benefits ........................................................................................ Exclusion of public assistance benefits (normal tax method) ............................................................... Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners ......................................................................... Exclusion of military disability pensions ................................................................................................. Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans ................................................................................................................................... 401(k) plans ........................................................................................................................................ 101 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–1. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL INCOME TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Total from corporations and individuals 113 114 115 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 18,680 0 6,160 18,090 550 6,520 18,660 1,960 6,770 19,050 1,940 7,040 18,930 1,900 7,250 19,230 1,800 7,490 18,330 1,280 7,730 94,200 8,880 36,280 1,750 210 0 20 1,290 40 1,970 30 210 4,940 1,780 220 20 20 1,340 40 1,890 30 250 4,370 1,800 230 50 30 1,420 40 1,950 30 310 4,800 1,830 240 90 30 1,490 40 2,060 30 360 4,930 1,860 250 120 30 1,570 40 2,100 30 410 5,100 1,890 260 130 30 1,640 40 2,150 30 450 5,180 1,920 270 150 30 1,730 40 2,050 30 490 5,390 9,300 1,250 540 150 7,850 200 10,310 150 2,020 25,400 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 Individual Retirement Accounts .......................................................................................................... Low and moderate income savers credit .......................................................................................... Keogh plans ........................................................................................................................................ Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance ............................................................................................ Premiums on accident and disability insurance ................................................................................ Small business retirement plan credit ............................................................................................... Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits ................................................ Special ESOP rules ............................................................................................................................ Additional deduction for the blind ...................................................................................................... Additional deduction for the elderly ................................................................................................... Tax credit for the elderly and disabled ............................................................................................. Deductibility of casualty losses .......................................................................................................... Earned income tax credit 3 ................................................................................................................. 126 127 128 Social Security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Social Security benefits for retired workers ....................................................................................... Social Security benefits for disabled ................................................................................................. Social Security benefits for dependents and survivors ..................................................................... 17,830 2,690 3,720 18,000 2,930 3,870 18,180 3,240 4,060 18,560 3,630 4,320 18,850 4,020 4,560 19,720 4,470 4,820 20,890 5,020 5,170 96,200 20,380 22,930 129 130 131 132 Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans death benefits and disability compensation ...................................................... Exclusion of veterans pensions .............................................................................................................. Exclusion of GI bill benefits .................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on veterans housing bonds ................................................................................. 3,150 70 90 40 3,190 80 90 40 3,300 80 90 40 3,490 80 100 40 3,680 90 100 50 3,870 90 110 50 4,080 100 110 60 18,420 440 510 240 133 134 135 General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on public purpose State and local bonds ........................................................... Deductibility of nonbusiness state and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ................. Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in U.S. possessions .................... 23,100 45,520 2,190 23,680 46,160 2,240 24,270 48,150 2,240 24,880 47,730 2,240 25,500 43,270 2,200 26,140 34,820 1,300 26,800 30,890 0 127,590 204,860 7,980 136 Interest: Deferral of interest on U.S. savings bonds ........................................................................................... 290 300 310 330 330 350 360 1,680 22,410 45,520 22,680 46,160 23,580 48,150 23,210 47,730 20,330 43,270 16,300 34,820 14,410 30,890 97,830 204,860 23,100 90 400 310 800 160 630 230 540 1,100 40 30 23,680 90 420 310 830 170 640 230 550 1,130 40 50 24,270 100 440 330 870 180 680 240 580 1,190 40 70 24,880 120 480 360 960 200 750 260 640 1,310 40 80 25,500 130 530 390 1,050 220 820 290 700 1,440 50 90 26,140 140 580 430 1,140 240 890 310 760 1,570 50 90 26,800 150 630 470 1,240 260 980 350 830 1,700 60 90 127,590 640 2,660 1,980 5,260 1,100 4,120 1,450 3,510 7,210 240 420 Addendum: Aid to State and local governments: Deductibility of: Property taxes on owner-occupied homes ........................................................................................ Nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ..................................... Exclusion of interest on State and local bonds for: Public purposes .................................................................................................................................. Energy facilities ................................................................................................................................... Water, sewage, and hazardous waste disposal facilities ................................................................. Small-issues ........................................................................................................................................ Owner-occupied mortgage subsidies ................................................................................................. Rental housing .................................................................................................................................... Airports, docks, and similar facilities ................................................................................................. Student loans ...................................................................................................................................... Private nonprofit educational facilities ............................................................................................... Hospital construction .......................................................................................................................... Veterans’ housing ............................................................................................................................... Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ........................................................................................... 1 The determination of whether a provision is a tax expenditure is made on the basis of a broad concept of ‘‘income’’ that is larger in scope than is ‘‘income’’ as defined under general U.S. income tax principles. For tax reasons, the tax expenditure estimates include, for example, estimates related to the exclusion of extraterritorial income, as well as other exclusions, notwithstanding that such exclusions define income under the general rule of U.S. income taxation. 2 In addition, the partial exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts (in millions of dollars) as follows: 2001 $990; 2002 $1,020; 2003 $1,050; 2004 $1,080; 2005 $1,080; 2006 $1,100; and 2007 $1,120. 3 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the child tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $980; 2002 $7,390; 2003 $7,390; 2004 $7,210; 2005 $6,950; 2006 $9,380; and 2007 $9,200. 4 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the earned income tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $26,120; 2002 $28,280; 2003 $30,630; 2004 $31,080; 2005 $31,720; 2006 $33,130; and 2007 $34,090. Note: Provisions with estimates denoted normal tax method have no revenue loss under the reference tax law method. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $10 million. Provisions with estimates that rounded to zero in each year are not included in the table. 102 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–2. CORPORATE AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX ESTIMATES OF TAX EXPENDITURES (In millions of dollars) Corporations 2001 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 2002 2003 2004 2005 Individuals 2006 2007 2003– 2007 National Defense Exclusion of benefits and allowances to armed forces personnel ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 2001 2002 2,160 2,190 2003 2,210 2004 2,240 International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by U.S. citizens ........................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 2,450 2,540 2,660 2,690 Exclusion of certain allowances for Federal employees abroad ......... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 760 800 840 880 Extraterritorial income exclusion ..... 4,490 4,820 5,150 5,510 5,890 6,290 6,730 29,570 ............ ............ .............. .............. Inventory property sales source rules exception ............................ 1,400 1,470 1,540 1,620 1,700 1,790 1,880 8,530 ............ ............ .............. .............. Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations (normal tax method) ....................................... 6,600 7,000 7,450 7,900 8,400 8,930 9,550 42,230 ............ ............ .............. .............. Deferred taxes for financial firms on certain income earned overseas ............................................. 1,300 550 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ 0 ............ ............ .............. .............. General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and experimentation expenditures (normal tax method) ................................. Credit for increasing research activities .......................................... 2005 2006 2007 2003– 2007 2,260 2,290 2,310 11,310 2,760 2,810 3,170 14,090 920 960 1,020 4,620 .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 1,980 1,750 2,330 2,820 3,330 3,830 4,080 16,390 40 30 50 60 70 80 80 340 5,310 5,950 4,540 3,980 2,310 990 410 12,240 60 60 50 40 20 .............. .............. 110 Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs, fuels ................ 40 50 60 70 70 80 80 360 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 90 Excess of percentage over cost depletion, fuels ............................ 220 230 240 250 260 270 280 1,300 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 190 Alternative fuel production credit .... 860 810 390 120 120 120 120 870 40 40 20 10 10 10 10 60 Exception from passive loss limitation for working interests in oil and gas properties ...................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal ........................................ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 100 100 110 120 120 130 140 620 Exclusion of interest on energy facility bonds .................................. 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 140 70 70 80 90 100 110 120 500 Enhanced oil recovery credit .......... 280 330 400 480 580 690 830 2,980 30 30 40 50 60 70 80 300 New technology credit .................... 60 80 100 100 100 90 90 480 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. Alcohol fuel credits 1 ....................... 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 Tax credit and deduction for cleanfuel burning vehicles ................... 30 30 20 0 –20 –40 –40 –80 20 20 30 20 10 –10 –10 40 Exclusion from income of conservation subsidies provided by public utilities .............................. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 70 70 70 70 70 70 60 340 Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals ............................................ 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals ........ 240 250 260 270 280 280 290 1,380 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 90 Exclusion of interest on bonds for water, sewage, and hazardous waste facilities ............................. 100 110 110 110 110 120 120 570 300 310 330 370 420 460 510 2,090 Capital gains treatment of certain timber income ............................. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 100 100 110 120 120 130 140 620 Expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs .............................. 240 240 250 260 260 270 280 1,320 120 120 120 120 130 130 130 630 Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures ........................ 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 1,050 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 750 Expensing of certain multiperiod production costs .......................... 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 110 110 110 110 100 100 100 520 Treatment of loans forgiven for solvent farmers ................................ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 Capital gains treatment of certain income ......................................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 990 1,040 1,100 1,160 1,220 1,290 1,360 6,130 Income averaging for farmers ........ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 70 70 70 70 80 80 80 380 Deferral of gain on sale of farm refiners ........................................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 103 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–2. CORPORATE AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX ESTIMATES OF TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Corporations 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 Commerce and housing: Financial institutions and insurance: Exemption of credit union income ....................................... Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions .................. Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings ..................... Special alternative tax on small property and casualty insurance companies ..................... Tax exemption of certain insurance companies owned by tax-exempt organizations ....... Small life insurance company deduction ................................ Housing: Exclusion of interest on owneroccupied mortgage subsidy bonds ...................................... Exclusion of interest on rental housing bonds ........................ Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes ..... Deductibility of State and local property tax on owner-occupied homes ............................. Deferral of income from post 1987 installment sales ........... Capital gains exclusion on home sales ....................................... Exception from passive loss rules for $25,000 of rental loss ......................................... Credit for low-income housing investments ............................. Accelerated depreciation on rental housing (normal tax method) ................................... Commerce: Cancellation of indebtedness ..... Exceptions from imputed interest rules ........................................ Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal) (normal tax method) ............... Capital gains exclusion of small corporation stock .................... Step-up basis of capital gains at death ....................................... Carryover basis of capital gains on gifts .................................... Ordinary income treatment of loss from small business corporation stock sale ................. Accelerated depreciation of buildings other than rental housing (normal tax method) Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment (normal tax method) ..................... Expensing of certain small investments (normal tax method) ........................................... Amortization of start-up costs (normal tax method) ............... Graduated corporation income tax rate (normal tax method) Exclusion of interest on small issue bonds ............................ Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies .............................................. Individuals 2003– 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1,000 1,070 1,150 1,230 1,320 1,420 1,530 6,650 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 60 50 30 20 10 0 0 60 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 1,650 1,770 1,890 2,020 2,160 2,280 2,490 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 220 230 250 260 280 290 300 1,380 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 500 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 200 210 210 220 230 230 240 1,130 600 620 660 740 820 910 1,000 4,130 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 240 120 130 140 150 170 190 210 860 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 64,510 64,190 66,110 68,070 70,870 73,560 76,870 355,480 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 22,410 22,680 23,580 23,210 20,330 16,300 14,410 97,830 780 800 810 830 840 860 4,140 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 19,090 19,670 20,260 20,860 21,490 22,140 270 270 280 290 290 300 300 2001 2002 10,840 14,640 15,940 1,460 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 770 2003 17,360 2004 18,920 2005 20,620 2006 22,510 2007 2003– 2007 2001 24,440 103,850 22,800 107,550 4,800 4,400 4,070 3,780 3,530 3,290 3,090 17,760 2,420 2,500 2,600 2,730 2,860 2,990 3,100 14,280 800 830 860 900 950 990 1,030 4,730 390 410 440 450 460 470 480 2,300 4,800 5,030 5,270 5,340 5,340 5,250 5,320 26,520 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 190 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 400 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 67,800 61,810 60,200 56,990 56,180 50,670 100 130 160 210 250 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 26,540 27,610 28,710 29,860 31,050 32,300 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 70 49,880 273,920 300 1,050 33,590 155,510 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 530 600 680 760 900 1,080 1,130 4,550 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 240 10,980 1,850 1,940 1,790 1,780 1,810 2,110 2,570 10,060 30,750 30,220 29,750 30,200 30,860 31,970 34,070 156,850 7,110 6,910 6,730 6,590 6,570 6,550 6,860 33,300 2,690 2,620 2,450 2,180 1,990 2,050 2,310 530 470 460 460 450 490 570 2,430 1,140 960 960 930 910 990 1,150 4,940 90 110 140 160 170 180 180 830 40 50 60 80 80 90 90 400 4,940 5,590 6,210 6,580 7,120 7,450 7,880 80 80 80 80 80 90 90 420 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 35,240 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 230 230 250 280 310 340 380 1,560 104 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–2. CORPORATE AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX ESTIMATES OF TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Corporations 2001 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 2002 2003 2004 2005 Individuals 2006 2003– 2007 2007 Exclusion of reimbursed employee parking expenses ........................ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Exclusion for employer-provided transit passes .............................. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Community and regional development: Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) Exclusion of interest for airport, dock, and similar bonds ............. Exemption of certain mutuals’ and cooperatives’ income .................. Empowerment zones, Enterprise communities, and Renewal communities ....................................... New markets tax credit ................... Expensing of environmental remediation costs ................................ Education, training, employment, and social services: Education: Exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income (normal tax method) ................................... HOPE tax credit .......................... Lifetime Learning tax credit ........ Education Individual Retirement Accounts ................................. Deductibility of student-loan interest ....................................... Deduction for higher education expenses ................................ State prepaid tuition plans ......... Exclusion of interest on studentloan bonds .............................. Exclusion of interest on bonds for private nonprofit educational facilities ..................... Credit for holders of zone academy bonds .............................. Exclusion of interest on savings bonds redeemed to finance educational expenses ............. Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over ........ Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) .............. Exclusion of employer-provided educational assistance ........... Training, employment, and social services: Work opportunity tax credit ........ Welfare-to-work tax credit .......... Employer provided child care exclusion ..................................... Employer-provided child care credit ....................................... Assistance for adopted foster children ................................... Adoption credit and exclusion .... Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) ......................................... Child credit 2 ............................... Credit for child and dependent care expenses ........................ Credit for disabled access expenditures ............................... Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health .................... Exclusion of certain foster care payments ................................ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003– 2007 2001 2002 2007 1,980 2,090 2,190 2,300 2,420 2,550 2,670 12,130 220 280 360 410 470 540 600 2,380 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 160 160 170 170 180 180 190 890 470 480 510 580 640 710 790 3,230 60 60 60 60 70 70 70 100 0 220 20 300 50 300 70 320 110 350 150 390 210 1,660 590 280 10 510 70 70 80 80 20 –20 –10 –10 60 10 20 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 1,210 4,130 2,370 1,200 4,110 2,290 1,210 3,520 2,360 1,240 2,880 3,140 1,330 2,930 2,980 1,380 2,730 2,740 1,390 2,900 2,960 6,550 14,960 14,180 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 30 50 80 130 220 330 470 1,230 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 390 450 640 660 680 700 720 3,400 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 0 190 430 270 2,290 340 2,960 400 3,710 460 3,010 530 0 590 11,970 2,320 330 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 830 140 870 220 960 320 1,060 460 1,190 620 4,910 1,760 20 .............. .............. .............. .............. 20 60 60 60 60 60 60 70 310 170 170 180 200 230 250 280 1,140 140 140 140 150 150 150 160 750 400 410 440 490 550 610 670 2,760 30 50 70 80 90 90 90 420 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 100 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 1,010 1,070 1,120 1,170 1,230 1,280 1,340 6,140 4,290 3,240 3,300 3,430 3,610 3,760 3,940 4,080 18,820 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 260 410 500 530 560 590 620 2,800 200 60 40 10 40 10 20 10 10 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 40 10 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 720 740 770 810 930 1,020 1,080 4,610 590 260 80 0 680 190 60 40 770 120 30 90 830 50 20 130 840 20 10 150 900 10 0 150 950 0 0 160 680 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 220 140 250 220 260 450 270 500 280 540 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 710 740 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 19,840 19,760 780 19,680 810 19,550 850 20,550 890 21,530 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 730 850 950 1,040 1,040 1,110 1,180 190 130 290 560 1,350 2,270 930 4,260 21,240 102,550 2,670 2,610 2,670 2,960 2,700 2,150 1,920 12,400 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 200 5,320 29,420 29,960 31,130 32,790 34,150 35,780 520 530 540 570 80 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 500 510 37,110 170,960 610 2,770 105 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–2. CORPORATE AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX ESTIMATES OF TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Corporations 2001 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 2002 2003 2004 2005 Individuals 2006 2007 2003– 2007 Exclusion of parsonage allowances ...................................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care ........................ Self-employed medical insurance premiums .................................... Workers’ compensation insurance premiums .................................... Medical Savings Accounts .............. Deductibility of medical expenses .. Exclusion of interest on hospital construction bonds ...................... Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) ............................... Tax credit for orphan drug research ......................................... Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield deduction ......................................... Income security: Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits ........................... Exclusion of workers’ compensation benefits ........................................ Exclusion of public assistance benefits (normal tax method) ........... Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners ................... Exclusion of military disability pensions ............................................ Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans ........................... 401(k) plans ................................ Individual Retirement Accounts .. Low and moderate income savers credit ................................. Keogh plans ................................ Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance ................................... Premiums on accident and disability insurance ...................... Small business retirement plan credit ........................................... Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits Special ESOP rules ........................ Additional deduction for the blind ... Additional deduction for the elderly Tax credit for the elderly and disabled ........................................... Deductibility of casualty losses ...... Earned income tax credit 3 ............. 2001 2002 350 370 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 82,800 90,910 2003 400 2004 420 2005 450 2006 470 2007 490 2003– 2007 2,230 99,260 106,940 115,380 124,050 134,960 580,590 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 1,520 1,730 2,420 3,570 3,870 4,170 4,430 18,460 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 4,730 20 4,990 4,870 20 5,260 5,080 20 5,530 5,230 20 5,840 5,410 20 6,280 5,570 20 6,600 5,790 20 7,100 27,080 100 31,350 280 290 290 300 310 320 320 1,540 820 840 900 1,010 1,130 1,250 1,380 5,670 710 820 920 1,010 1,010 1,080 1,150 5,170 3,300 3,360 3,500 3,680 3,840 4,020 4,170 19,210 140 150 170 190 220 240 270 1,090 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 270 300 340 310 300 270 300 1,520 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 380 390 400 400 400 400 400 2,000 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 5,560 5,810 6,070 6,320 6,600 6,900 7,200 33,090 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 370 380 400 410 430 450 470 2,160 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 280 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 110 120 120 120 130 130 140 640 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 42,070 48,070 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 44,080 52,960 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 18,680 18,090 53,080 59,510 18,660 54,500 62,770 19,050 55,630 65,290 18,930 58,980 69,230 19,230 63,320 285,510 73,320 330,120 18,330 94,200 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 0 6,160 550 6,520 1,960 6,770 1,940 7,040 1,900 7,250 1,800 7,490 1,280 7,730 8,880 36,280 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 1,750 1,780 1,800 1,830 1,860 1,890 1,920 9,300 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 1,250 0 10 20 40 50 50 60 220 0 10 30 50 70 80 90 320 20 20 30 30 30 30 30 150 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 980 1,020 1,080 1,140 1,200 1,260 1,330 6,010 310 320 340 350 370 380 400 1,840 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 200 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 1,970 1,890 1,950 2,060 2,100 2,150 2,050 10,310 ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 30 250 4,370 30 310 4,800 30 360 4,930 30 410 5,100 30 450 5,180 30 490 5,390 150 2,020 25,400 Social Security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Social Security benefits for retired workers ........................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 17,830 18,000 Social Security benefits for disabled ....................................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 2,690 2,930 Social Security benefits for dependents and survivors .......... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 3,720 3,870 18,180 18,560 18,850 19,720 20,890 96,200 3,240 3,630 4,020 4,470 5,020 20,380 4,060 4,320 4,560 4,820 5,170 22,930 Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans death benefits and disability compensation ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Exclusion of veterans pensions ...... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Exclusion of GI bill benefits ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. Exclusion of interest on veterans housing bonds ............................ 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 30 210 4,940 3,150 70 90 3,190 80 90 3,300 80 90 3,490 80 100 3,680 90 100 3,870 90 110 4,080 100 110 18,420 440 510 30 30 30 30 40 40 50 190 106 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–2. CORPORATE AND INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX ESTIMATES OF TAX EXPENDITURES—Continued (In millions of dollars) Corporations 2001 133 134 135 136 2002 2003 2004 2005 Individuals 2006 2007 2003– 2007 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003– 2007 General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on public purpose State and local bonds ....... 5,860 6,010 6,160 6,310 6,470 6,630 6,800 32,370 17,240 17,670 18,110 18,570 19,030 19,510 20,000 95,220 Deductibility of nonbusiness state and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ............... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 45,520 46,160 48,150 47,730 43,270 34,820 30,890 204,860 Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in U.S. possessions .................... 2,190 2,240 2,240 2,240 2,200 1,300 0 7,980 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. Interest: Deferral of interest on U.S. savings bonds .......................................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 290 300 310 330 330 350 360 1,680 Addendum: Aid to State and local governments: Deductibility of: Property taxes on owner-occupied homes ............................. ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 22,410 22,680 23,580 23,210 20,330 16,300 14,410 97,830 Nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ......................... ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ ............ .............. 45,520 46,160 48,150 47,730 43,270 34,820 30,890 204,860 Exclusion of interest on State and local bonds for: Public purposes .......................... 5,860 6,010 6,160 6,310 6,470 6,630 6,800 32,370 17,240 17,670 18,110 18,570 19,030 19,510 20,000 95,220 Energy facilities ........................... 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 140 70 70 80 90 100 110 120 500 Water, sewage, and hazardous waste disposal facilities .......... 100 110 110 110 110 120 120 570 300 310 330 370 420 460 510 2,090 Small-issues ................................ 80 80 80 80 80 90 90 420 230 230 250 280 310 340 380 1,560 Owner-occupied mortgage subsidies ....................................... 200 210 210 220 230 230 240 1,130 600 620 660 740 820 910 1,000 4,130 Rental housing ............................ 40 40 40 50 50 50 50 240 120 130 140 150 170 190 210 860 Airports, docks, and similar facilities ...................................... 160 160 170 170 180 180 190 890 470 480 510 580 640 710 790 3,230 Student loans .............................. 60 60 60 60 60 60 70 310 170 170 180 200 230 250 280 1,140 Private nonprofit educational facilities ...................................... 140 140 140 150 150 150 160 750 400 410 440 490 550 610 670 2,760 Hospital construction .................. 280 290 290 300 310 320 320 1,540 820 840 900 1,010 1,130 1,250 1,380 5,670 Veterans’ housing ....................... 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 50 30 30 30 30 40 40 50 190 Credit for holders of zone academy bonds .......................................... 30 50 70 80 90 90 90 420 ............ ............ .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. 1 The determination of whether a provision is a tax expenditure is made on the basis of a broad concept of ‘‘income’’ that is larger in scope than is ‘‘income’’ as defined under general U.S. income tax principles. For tax reasons, the tax expenditure estimates include, for example, estimates related to the exclusion of extraterritorial income, as well as other exclusions, notwithstanding that such exclusions define income under the general rule of U.S. income taxation. 2 In addition, the partial exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts (in millions of dollars) as follows: 2001 $990; 2002 $1,020; 2003 $1,050; 2004 $1,080; 2005 $1,080; 2006 $1,100; and 2007 $1,120. 3 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the child tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $980; 2002 $7,390; 2003 $7,390; 2004 $7,210; 2005 $6,950; 2006 $9,380; and 2007 $9,200. 4 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the earned income tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $26,120; 2002 $28,280; 2003 $30,630; 2004 $31,080; 2005 $31,720; 2006 $33,130; and 2007 $34,090. Note: Provisions with estimates denoted normal tax method have no revenue loss under the reference tax law method. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $10 million. Provisions with estimates that rounded to zero in each year are not included in the table. 107 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–3. INCOME TAX EXPENDITURES RANKED BY TOTAL 2003 PROJECTED REVENUE EFFECT (In millions of dollars) Provision Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care ................................................. Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes ............................................................................................ Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal) (normal tax method) .......................................................... Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: 401(k) plans .................................................................................. Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans ............................................................................. Deductibility of nonbusiness state and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes .............................................. Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment (normal tax method) ................................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health ......................................................................... Step-up basis of capital gains at death .............................................................................................................................. Exclusion of interest on public purpose State and local bonds ......................................................................................... Deductibility of State and local property tax on owner-occupied homes ........................................................................... Capital gains exclusion on home sales ............................................................................................................................... Child credit ............................................................................................................................................................................ Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings ................................................................................................................... Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Individual Retirement Accounts .................................................... Exclusion of Social Security benefits for retired workers ................................................................................................... Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations (normal tax method) .................................................................. Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Keogh plans .................................................................................. Graduated corporation income tax rate (normal tax method) ............................................................................................ Exclusion of workers’ compensation benefits ...................................................................................................................... Accelerated depreciation on rental housing (normal tax method) ...................................................................................... Deductibility of medical expenses ........................................................................................................................................ Extraterritorial income exclusion .......................................................................................................................................... Workers’ compensation insurance premiums ...................................................................................................................... Earned income tax credit ..................................................................................................................................................... Credit for increasing research activities .............................................................................................................................. Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) .................................................................................................................. Accelerated depreciation of buildings other than rental housing (normal tax method) ..................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) ............................................................................................................ Exception from passive loss rules for $25,000 of rental loss ............................................................................................ Exclusion of Social Security benefits for dependents and survivors ................................................................................. HOPE tax credit ................................................................................................................................................................... Credit for low-income housing investments ......................................................................................................................... Exclusion of veterans death benefits and disability compensation .................................................................................... Exclusion of Social Security benefits for disabled .............................................................................................................. Credit for child and dependent care expenses ................................................................................................................... Exclusion of income earned abroad by U.S. citizens ......................................................................................................... Self-employed medical insurance premiums ....................................................................................................................... Expensing of research and experimentation expenditures (normal tax method) .............................................................. Lifetime Learning tax credit .................................................................................................................................................. Deduction for higher education expenses ........................................................................................................................... Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in U.S. possessions .................................................. Exclusion of benefits and allowances to armed forces personnel ..................................................................................... Exclusion of reimbursed employee parking expenses ........................................................................................................ Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Low and moderate income savers credit ..................................... Additional deduction for the elderly ..................................................................................................................................... Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Premiums on group term life insurance ....................................... Inventory property sales source rules exception ................................................................................................................. Special ESOP rules .............................................................................................................................................................. Expensing of certain small investments (normal tax method) ............................................................................................ Exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income (normal tax method) .............................................................................. Exclusion of interest on hospital construction bonds .......................................................................................................... Exemption of credit union income ....................................................................................................................................... Empowerment zones, Enterprise communities, and Renewal communities ...................................................................... Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over ................................................................................................. Capital gains treatment of certain income ........................................................................................................................... Deferral of income from post 1987 installment sales ......................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on owner-occupied mortgage subsidy bonds ................................................................................... Exclusion of certain allowances for Federal employees abroad ........................................................................................ Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) ........................................................................................ Employer provided child care exclusion .............................................................................................................................. Carryover basis of capital gains on gifts ............................................................................................................................. Exclusion of interest for airport, dock, and similar bonds .................................................................................................. Deductibility of student-loan interest .................................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for private nonprofit educational facilities ......................................................................... Exclusion of certain foster care payments .......................................................................................................................... Exclusion of employer-provided educational assistance ..................................................................................................... Enhanced oil recovery credit ............................................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for water, sewage, and hazardous waste facilities .......................................................... 2003 99,260 66,110 60,200 59,510 53,080 48,150 36,480 32,080 28,710 24,270 23,580 20,260 19,680 19,250 18,660 18,180 7,450 6,770 6,210 6,070 5,710 5,530 5,150 5,080 4,800 4,590 4,420 4,240 4,200 4,070 4,060 3,520 3,460 3,300 3,240 2,670 2,660 2,420 2,380 2,360 2,290 2,240 2,210 2,190 1,960 1,950 1,800 1,540 1,420 1,420 1,210 1,190 1,150 1,130 1,120 1,100 1,080 870 840 780 770 680 680 640 580 520 500 440 440 2003–2007 580,590 355,480 273,920 330,120 285,510 204,860 190,150 176,280 155,510 127,590 97,830 107,550 102,550 114,690 94,200 96,200 42,230 36,280 35,240 33,090 28,820 31,350 29,570 27,080 25,400 12,350 24,380 21,040 23,110 17,760 22,930 14,960 19,010 18,420 20,380 12,400 14,090 18,460 16,730 14,180 11,970 7,980 11,310 12,130 8,880 10,310 9,300 8,530 7,850 7,370 6,550 7,210 6,650 6,570 6,140 6,130 5,600 5,260 4,620 4,260 4,610 4,550 4,120 3,400 3,510 2,770 2,800 3,280 2,660 108 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–3. INCOME TAX EXPENDITURES RANKED BY TOTAL 2003 PROJECTED REVENUE EFFECT—Continued (In millions of dollars) Provision Alternative fuel production credit ......................................................................................................................................... Exclusion of parsonage allowances ..................................................................................................................................... Exclusion of public assistance benefits (normal tax method) ............................................................................................ Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits ................................................................................................................ Expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs ................................................................................................................... Exclusion for employer-provided transit passes .................................................................................................................. State prepaid tuition plans ................................................................................................................................................... Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield deduction .......................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on small issue bonds ......................................................................................................................... Deductibility of casualty losses ............................................................................................................................................ Deferral of interest on U.S. savings bonds ......................................................................................................................... Excess of percentage over cost depletion, fuels ................................................................................................................ Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals ............................................................................................. Tax exemption of certain insurance companies owned by tax-exempt organizations ...................................................... Assistance for adopted foster children ................................................................................................................................ Exclusion of interest on student-loan bonds ....................................................................................................................... Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Premiums on accident and disability insurance .......................... Adoption credit and exclusion .............................................................................................................................................. Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures ......................................................................................................... Amortization of start-up costs (normal tax method) ............................................................................................................ New markets tax credit ........................................................................................................................................................ Exclusion of interest on rental housing bonds .................................................................................................................... Tax credit for orphan drug research .................................................................................................................................... Expensing of certain capital outlays .................................................................................................................................... Work opportunity tax credit .................................................................................................................................................. Capital gains exclusion of small corporation stock ............................................................................................................. Expensing of certain multiperiod production costs .............................................................................................................. Exclusion of military disability pensions .............................................................................................................................. Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal ....................................................................................................................... Capital gains treatment of certain timber income ............................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on energy facility bonds .................................................................................................................... Small life insurance company deduction ............................................................................................................................. New technology credit .......................................................................................................................................................... Expensing of environmental remediation costs ................................................................................................................... Employer-provided child care credit .................................................................................................................................... Exclusion of GI bill benefits ................................................................................................................................................. Education Individual Retirement Accounts .......................................................................................................................... Exclusion of veterans pensions ........................................................................................................................................... Exceptions from imputed interest rules ............................................................................................................................... Expensing of exploration and development costs, fuels .................................................................................................... Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ......................................................................................................................... Income averaging for farmers .............................................................................................................................................. Exclusion from income of conservation subsidies provided by public utilities ................................................................... Exemption of certain mutuals’ and cooperatives’ income .................................................................................................. Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners ....................................................................................................... Small business retirement plan credit ................................................................................................................................. Credit for disabled access expenditures ............................................................................................................................. Tax credit and deduction for clean-fuel burning vehicles ................................................................................................... Ordinary income treatment of loss from small business corporation stock sale ............................................................... Exclusion of interest on veterans housing bonds ............................................................................................................... Additional deduction for the blind ........................................................................................................................................ Welfare-to-work tax credit .................................................................................................................................................... Cancellation of indebtedness ............................................................................................................................................... Alcohol fuel credits ............................................................................................................................................................... Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) ................................................................................ Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits .................................................................................. Tax credit for the elderly and disabled ............................................................................................................................... Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions .............................................................................................................. Exception from passive loss limitation for working interests in oil and gas properties ..................................................... Deferral of tax on shipping companies ............................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on savings bonds redeemed to finance educational expenses ....................................................... Medical Savings Accounts ................................................................................................................................................... Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals ................................................................................. Treatment of loans forgiven for solvent farmers ................................................................................................................. Deferral of gain on sale of farm refiners ............................................................................................................................. Special alternative tax on small property and casualty insurance companies .................................................................. Deferred taxes for financial firms on certain income earned overseas ............................................................................. 2003 410 400 400 400 370 360 340 340 330 310 310 270 270 250 250 240 230 220 210 200 190 180 170 170 140 130 130 120 110 110 100 100 100 100 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 2003–2007 930 2,230 2,160 2,000 1,950 2,380 2,320 1,520 1,980 2,020 1,680 1,490 1,470 1,380 1,350 1,450 1,250 2,270 1,150 1,230 2,350 1,100 1,090 850 240 1,050 620 640 620 620 640 500 480 80 590 510 1,230 440 400 450 420 380 340 330 280 540 280 –40 240 240 200 70 190 150 150 150 150 60 100 100 100 100 50 50 50 50 0 109 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–4. PRESENT VALUE OF SELECTED TAX EXPENDITURES FOR ACTIVITY IN CALENDAR YEAR 2001 (In millions of dollars) Present Value of Revenue Loss Provision 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations (normal tax method) ................................................... Deferred taxes for financial firms on income earned overseas .......................................................................... Expensing of research and experimentation expenditures (normal tax method) ............................................... Expensing of exploration and development costs - fuels .................................................................................... Expensing of exploration and development costs - nonfuels .............................................................................. Expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs ................................................................................................... Expensing of certain multiperiod production costs - agriculture ......................................................................... Expensing of certain capital outlays - agriculture ................................................................................................ Deferral of income on life insurance and annuity contracts ................................................................................ Accelerated depreciation of rental housing (normal tax method) ....................................................................... Accelerated depreciation of buildings other than rental housing (normal tax method) ...................................... Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment (normal tax method) .................................................... Expensing of certain small investments (normal tax method) ............................................................................ Amortization of start-up costs (normal tax method) ............................................................................................. Deferral of tax on shipping companies ................................................................................................................ Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ......................................................................................................... Credit for low-income housing investments ......................................................................................................... Deferral for state prepaid tuition plans ................................................................................................................. Exclusion of pension contributions - employer plans .......................................................................................... Exclusion of 401(k) contributions .......................................................................................................................... Exclusion of IRA contributions and earnings ....................................................................................................... Exclusion of contributions and earnings for Keogh plans ................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on public-purpose bonds .................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on non-public purpose bonds ............................................................................................. Deferral of interest on U.S. savings bonds .......................................................................................................... Outlay Equivalents The concept of ‘‘outlay equivalents’’ is another theoretical measure of the budget effect of tax expenditures. It is the amount of budget outlays that would be required to provide the taxpayer the same after-tax inTable 6–5. 6,760 1,170 1,700 130 0 220 230 260 22,920 4,750 540 31,210 990 20 20 120 2,850 190 97,290 69,980 6,090 9,780 20,730 5,560 330 come as would be received through the tax provision. The outlay-equivalent measure allows the cost of a tax expenditure to be compared with a direct Federal outlay on a more even footing. Outlay equivalents are reported in Table 6–5. OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE INCOME TAX (In millions of dollars) Outlay Equivalents 2001 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 National Defense Exclusion of benefits and allowances to armed forces personnel ....................................................... International affairs: Exclusion of income earned abroad by U.S. citizens ........................................................................... Exclusion of certain allowances for Federal employees abroad .......................................................... Extraterritorial income exclusion ............................................................................................................. Inventory property sales source rules exception ................................................................................... Deferral of income from controlled foreign corporations (normal tax method) .................................... Deferred taxes for financial firms on certain income earned overseas ................................................ General science, space, and technology: Expensing of research and experimentation expenditures (normal tax method) ................................. Credit for increasing research activities ................................................................................................. Energy: Expensing of exploration and development costs, fuels ....................................................................... Excess of percentage over cost depletion, fuels .................................................................................. Alternative fuel production credit ............................................................................................................ Exception from passive loss limitation for working interests in oil and gas properties ....................... Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal .......................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on energy facility bonds ....................................................................................... Enhanced oil recovery credit .................................................................................................................. New technology credit ............................................................................................................................ Alcohol fuel credits 1 ............................................................................................................................... Tax credit and deduction for clean-fuel burning vehicles ..................................................................... Exclusion from income of conservation subsidies provided by public utilities ..................................... 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 2,510 2,540 2,570 2,600 2,620 2,650 2,680 13,120 3,270 1,020 6,910 2,150 6,600 1,300 3,380 1,060 7,410 2,260 7,000 550 3,540 1,130 7,930 2,370 7,450 .............. 3,570 1,170 8,470 2,490 7,900 .............. 3,670 1,230 9,060 2,620 8,400 .............. 3,720 1,270 9,680 2,750 8,930 .............. 4,210 1,350 10,350 2,890 9,550 .............. 18,710 6,150 45,490 13,120 42,230 0 2,020 8,270 1,780 9,240 2,380 7,060 2,880 6,190 3,400 3,580 3,910 1,530 4,160 640 16,730 18,990 80 290 1,210 20 130 130 370 90 30 70 90 80 300 1,130 20 140 130 440 130 30 70 90 100 310 540 20 150 150 530 150 30 70 90 120 320 170 20 150 170 640 150 30 30 90 120 340 170 20 160 180 770 150 30 -20 90 130 340 170 20 170 200 920 150 30 -60 90 130 360 170 20 180 210 1,110 150 30 -60 90 600 1,670 1,220 100 810 1,170 3,970 750 150 -40 450 110 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–5. OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE INCOME TAX—Continued (In millions of dollars) Outlay Equivalents 2001 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 Natural resources and environment: Expensing of exploration and development costs, nonfuel minerals .................................................... Excess of percentage over cost depletion, nonfuel minerals ............................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for water, sewage, and hazardous waste facilities ............................ Capital gains treatment of certain timber income ................................................................................. Expensing of multiperiod timber growing costs ..................................................................................... Tax incentives for preservation of historic structures ............................................................................ Agriculture: Expensing of certain capital outlays ...................................................................................................... Expensing of certain multiperiod production costs ................................................................................ Treatment of loans forgiven for solvent farmers ................................................................................... Capital gains treatment of certain income ............................................................................................. Income averaging for farmers ................................................................................................................ Deferral of gain on sale of farm refiners ............................................................................................... Commerce and housing: Financial institutions and insurance: Exemption of credit union income ..................................................................................................... Excess bad debt reserves of financial institutions ............................................................................ Exclusion of interest on life insurance savings ................................................................................. Special alternative tax on small property and casualty insurance companies ................................ Tax exemption of certain insurance companies owned by tax-exempt organizations .................... Small life insurance company deduction ........................................................................................... Housing: Exclusion of interest on owner-occupied mortgage subsidy bonds ................................................. Exclusion of interest on rental housing bonds .................................................................................. Deductibility of mortgage interest on owner-occupied homes .......................................................... Deductibility of State and local property tax on owner-occupied homes ......................................... Deferral of income from post 1987 installment sales ....................................................................... Capital gains exclusion on home sales ............................................................................................. Exception from passive loss rules for $25,000 of rental loss .......................................................... Credit for low-income housing investments ....................................................................................... Accelerated depreciation on rental housing (normal tax method) .................................................... Commerce: Cancellation of indebtedness ............................................................................................................. Exceptions from imputed interest rules ............................................................................................. Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal) (normal tax method) ........................ Capital gains exclusion of small corporation stock ........................................................................... Step-up basis of capital gains at death ............................................................................................ Carryover basis of capital gains on gifts ........................................................................................... Ordinary income treatment of loss from small business corporation stock sale ............................. Accelerated depreciation of buildings other than rental housing (normal tax method) ................... Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment (normal tax method) ................................. Expensing of certain small investments (normal tax method) .......................................................... Amortization of start-up costs (normal tax method) .......................................................................... Graduated corporation income tax rate (normal tax method) .......................................................... Exclusion of interest on small issue bonds ....................................................................................... Transportation: Deferral of tax on shipping companies .................................................................................................. Exclusion of reimbursed employee parking expenses .......................................................................... Exclusion for employer-provided transit passes .................................................................................... Community and regional development: Investment credit for rehabilitation of structures (other than historic) .................................................. Exclusion of interest for airport, dock, and similar bonds ..................................................................... Exemption of certain mutuals’ and cooperatives’ income ..................................................................... Empowerment zones and enterprise communities ................................................................................ New markets tax credit ........................................................................................................................... Expensing of environmental remediation costs ..................................................................................... Education, training, employment, and social services: Education: Exclusion of scholarship and fellowship income (normal tax method) ............................................ HOPE tax credit .................................................................................................................................. Lifetime Learning tax credit ................................................................................................................ Education Individual Retirement Accounts ........................................................................................ Deductibility of student-loan interest .................................................................................................. Deduction for higher education expenses ......................................................................................... State prepaid tuition plans ................................................................................................................. Exclusion of interest on student-loan bonds ..................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on bonds for private nonprofit educational facilities ....................................... 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 10 340 570 130 460 190 10 360 600 140 470 200 10 370 630 150 480 210 10 380 690 150 500 220 10 380 760 160 510 230 10 400 840 170 520 240 10 410 910 180 540 250 50 1,940 3,830 810 2,550 1,150 210 150 10 1,320 80 10 210 160 10 1,380 90 10 210 160 10 1,460 90 10 210 150 10 1,550 90 10 210 150 10 1,630 90 10 210 140 10 1,720 100 10 210 140 10 1,810 100 10 1,050 740 50 8,170 470 50 1,330 80 16,290 10 300 130 1,430 70 17,710 10 310 130 1,530 40 19,250 10 340 130 1,640 30 20,940 10 350 130 1,770 10 22,780 10 380 130 1,890 0 24,790 10 390 130 2,030 0 26,930 10 410 130 8,860 80 114,690 50 1,870 650 1,150 230 64,510 22,410 1,020 23,870 4,800 4,360 5,190 1,190 250 64,190 22,680 1,040 24,580 4,400 4,510 5,440 1,250 260 66,110 23,580 1,060 25,320 4,070 4,700 5,710 1,380 290 68,070 23,210 1,080 26,080 3,780 4,930 5,790 1,510 320 70,870 20,330 1,100 26,860 3,530 5,170 5,800 1,640 350 73,560 16,300 1,120 27,670 3,290 5,400 5,720 1,780 370 76,870 14,410 1,140 28,500 3,090 5,610 5,800 7,560 1,590 355,480 97,830 5,500 134,430 17,760 25,810 28,820 30 80 90,400 90 35,390 530 50 4,540 37,860 1,670 130 7,590 440 30 80 82,420 130 36,810 600 50 4,560 37,130 1,430 160 8,590 440 30 80 80,260 170 38,280 680 50 4,240 36,480 1,420 200 9,560 470 40 80 75,980 220 39,810 760 60 3,960 36,790 1,390 240 10,130 520 40 80 74,910 270 41,400 900 60 3,800 37,430 1,360 250 10,950 560 40 80 67,560 340 43,060 1,080 60 4,160 38,520 1,480 270 11,460 610 40 80 66,510 400 44,780 1,130 60 4,880 40,930 1,720 270 12,130 670 190 400 365,220 1,400 207,330 4,550 290 21,040 190,150 7,370 1,230 54,230 2,830 20 2,560 310 20 2,690 390 20 2,830 500 20 2,970 570 20 3,130 660 20 3,280 750 20 3,450 840 100 15,660 3,320 20 900 60 380 20 110 30 920 60 730 90 120 30 980 60 1,120 190 130 30 1,080 60 1,170 300 40 30 1,180 70 1,280 420 -20 30 1,280 70 1,410 610 -20 30 1,400 70 1,580 830 -20 150 5,920 330 6,560 2,350 110 1,330 5,300 3,030 40 460 0 250 330 770 1,320 5,270 2,940 60 540 560 340 330 780 1,330 4,510 3,030 90 760 2,940 430 340 830 1,360 3,690 4,020 150 790 3,790 510 370 920 1,460 3,760 3,830 260 810 4,760 590 410 1,010 1,520 3,500 3,520 390 840 3,860 680 440 1,090 1,530 3,720 3,800 550 850 0 760 510 1,190 7,200 19,180 18,200 1,440 4,050 15,350 2,970 2,070 5,040 111 6. TAX EXPENDITURES Table 6–5. OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE INCOME TAX—Continued (In millions of dollars) Outlay Equivalents 2001 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ....................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on savings bonds redeemed to finance educational expenses ..................... Parental personal exemption for students age 19 or over ............................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions (education) .......................................................................... Exclusion of employer-provided educational assistance ................................................................... Training, employment, and social services: Work opportunity tax credit ................................................................................................................ Welfare-to-work tax credit .................................................................................................................. Exclusion of employer provided child care ........................................................................................ Employer-provided child care ............................................................................................................. Assistance for adopted foster children .............................................................................................. Adoption credit and exclusion ............................................................................................................ Exclusion of employee meals and lodging (other than military) ...................................................... Child credit 2 ........................................................................................................................................ Credit for child and dependent care expenses ................................................................................. Credit for disabled access expenditures ........................................................................................... Deductibility of charitable contributions, other than education and health ....................................... Exclusion of certain foster care payments ........................................................................................ Exclusion of parsonage allowances ................................................................................................... Health: Exclusion of employer contributions for medical insurance premiums and medical care ................... Self-employed medical insurance premiums ......................................................................................... Workers’ compensation insurance premiums ........................................................................................ Medical Savings Accounts ...................................................................................................................... Deductibility of medical expenses .......................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on hospital construction bonds ............................................................................ Deductibility of charitable contributions (health) .................................................................................... Tax credit for orphan drug research ...................................................................................................... Special Blue Cross/Blue Shield deduction ............................................................................................. Income security: Exclusion of railroad retirement system benefits ................................................................................... Exclusion of workers’ compensation benefits ........................................................................................ Exclusion of public assistance benefits (normal tax method) ............................................................... Exclusion of special benefits for disabled coal miners ......................................................................... Exclusion of military disability pensions ................................................................................................. Net exclusion of pension contributions and earnings: Employer plans ................................................................................................................................... 401(k) plans ........................................................................................................................................ Individual Retirement Accounts .......................................................................................................... Low and moderate income savers credit .......................................................................................... Keogh plans ........................................................................................................................................ Exclusion of other employee benefits: Premiums on group term life insurance ............................................................................................ Premiums on accident and disability insurance ................................................................................ Small business retirement plan credit ............................................................................................... Income of trusts to finance supplementary unemployment benefits ................................................ Special ESOP rules ............................................................................................................................ Additional deduction for the blind ...................................................................................................... Additional deduction for the elderly ................................................................................................... Tax credit for the elderly and disabled ............................................................................................. Deductibility of casualty losses .......................................................................................................... Earned income tax credit 3 ................................................................................................................. Social Security: Exclusion of social security benefits: Social Security benefits for retired workers ....................................................................................... Social Security benefits for disabled ................................................................................................. Social Security benefits for dependents and survivors ..................................................................... Veterans benefits and services: Exclusion of veterans death benefits and disability compensation ...................................................... Exclusion of veterans pensions .............................................................................................................. Exclusion of GI bill benefits .................................................................................................................... Exclusion of interest on veterans housing bonds ................................................................................. General purpose fiscal assistance: Exclusion of interest on public purpose State and local bonds ........................................................... Deductibility of nonbusiness state and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ................. Tax credit for corporations receiving income from doing business in U.S. possessions .................... Interest: Deferral of interest on U.S. savings bonds ........................................................................................... 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 40 10 1,120 5,420 320 70 20 1,180 5,610 510 100 20 1,250 5,910 620 120 20 1,300 6,260 660 120 20 1,360 6,460 690 120 20 1,420 6,800 730 120 20 1,480 7,070 770 580 100 6,810 32,500 3,470 300 90 950 0 220 160 870 26,460 3,560 60 42,130 580 400 230 70 990 60 250 180 910 26,350 3,480 70 42,750 590 420 140 40 1,020 120 280 280 950 26,240 3,560 70 44,450 600 460 60 20 1,080 170 290 570 990 26,070 3,950 70 46,820 610 480 30 10 1,240 190 300 640 1,030 27,400 3,600 80 48,580 630 510 10 0 1,360 210 310 690 1,080 28,700 2,860 80 50,980 660 540 0 0 1,450 220 320 710 1,130 28,320 2,550 80 52,760 700 560 240 70 6,150 790 1,500 2,890 5,180 136,730 16,520 380 243,590 3,200 2,550 106,750 1,900 5,900 20 4,990 1,580 5,710 200 340 117,750 2,140 6,070 20 5,260 1,620 5,920 230 380 128,760 3,000 6,330 30 5,530 1,700 6,250 260 430 138,400 4,420 6,510 30 5,840 1,880 6,630 290 390 149,240 4,790 6,730 30 6,280 2,070 6,830 320 380 160,370 5,160 6,920 30 6,600 2,250 7,210 360 340 173,450 5,470 7,190 20 7,100 2,440 7,490 400 380 750,220 22,840 33,680 140 31,350 10,340 34,410 1,630 1,920 380 5,560 370 70 110 390 5,810 380 70 120 400 6,070 400 60 120 400 6,320 410 60 120 400 6,600 430 60 130 400 6,900 450 50 130 400 7,200 470 50 140 2,000 33,090 2,160 280 640 52,590 55,100 23,980 0 7,880 59,350 65,380 24,250 660 8,330 65,130 73,020 25,280 2,330 8,620 66,460 76,550 25,590 2,290 8,930 67,840 79,620 25,630 2,240 9,150 71,930 84,430 25,890 2,120 9,410 77,220 89,410 25,450 1,500 9,680 348,580 403,030 127,840 10,480 45,790 2,330 280 0 20 1,710 50 2,390 40 230 5,480 2,370 290 30 20 1,780 50 2,280 40 280 4,850 2,400 310 70 30 1,880 50 2,360 40 340 5,330 2,440 320 120 30 1,980 50 2,490 40 390 5,480 2,480 330 160 30 2,080 50 2,550 40 450 5,670 2,520 350 180 30 2,180 50 2,600 40 500 5,750 2,560 360 200 30 2,300 50 2,480 40 490 5,990 12,400 1,670 730 150 10,420 250 12,480 200 2,170 28,220 17,830 2,690 3,720 18,000 2,930 3,870 18,180 3,240 4,060 18,560 3,630 4,320 18,850 4,020 4,560 19,720 4,470 4,820 20,890 5,020 5,170 96,200 20,380 22,930 3,150 70 90 50 3,190 80 90 50 3,300 80 90 50 3,490 80 100 50 3,680 90 100 70 3,870 90 110 70 4,080 100 110 80 18,420 440 510 320 33,100 45,520 3,130 33,930 46,160 3,190 34,780 48,150 3,190 35,660 47,730 3,190 36,540 43,270 3,140 37,460 34,820 1,860 38,410 30,890 0 182,850 204,860 11,380 290 300 310 330 330 350 360 1,680 112 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 6–5. OUTLAY EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FOR TAX EXPENDITURES IN THE INCOME TAX—Continued (In millions of dollars) Outlay Equivalents Addendum: Aid to State and local governments: Deductibility of: Property taxes on owner-occupied homes ........................................................................................ Nonbusiness State and local taxes other than on owner-occupied homes ..................................... Exclusion of interest on State and local bonds for: Public purposes .................................................................................................................................. Energy facilities ................................................................................................................................... Water, sewage, and hazardous waste disposal facilities ................................................................. Small-issues ........................................................................................................................................ Owner-occupied mortgage subsidies ................................................................................................. Rental housing .................................................................................................................................... Airports, docks, and similar facilities ................................................................................................. Student loans ...................................................................................................................................... Private nonprofit educational facilities ............................................................................................... Hospital construction .......................................................................................................................... Veterans’ housing ............................................................................................................................... Credit for holders of zone academy bonds ........................................................................................... 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 22,410 45,520 22,680 46,160 23,580 48,150 23,210 47,730 20,330 43,270 16,300 34,820 14,410 30,890 97,830 204,860 33,100 130 570 440 1,150 230 900 330 770 1,580 50 40 33,930 130 600 440 1,190 250 920 330 780 1,620 50 70 34,780 150 630 470 1,250 260 980 340 830 1,700 50 100 35,660 170 690 520 1,380 290 1,080 370 920 1,880 50 120 36,540 180 760 560 1,510 320 1,180 410 1,010 2,070 70 120 37,460 200 840 610 1,640 350 1,280 440 1,090 2,250 70 120 38,410 210 910 670 1,780 370 1,400 510 1,190 2,440 80 120 182,850 1,170 3,830 2,830 7,560 1,590 5,920 2,070 5,040 10,340 320 580 1 In addition, the partial exemption from the excise tax for alcohol fuels results in a reduction in excise tax receipts (in millions of dollars) as follows: 2001 $990; 2002 $1,020; 2003 $1,050; 2004 $1,080; 2005 $1,080; 2006 $1,100; and 2007 $1,120. 2 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the child tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $980; 2002 $7,390; 2003 $7,390; 2004 $7,210; 2005 $6,950; 2006 $9,380; and 2007 $9,200. 3 The figures in the table indicate the effect of the earned income tax credit on receipts. The effect of the credit on outlays (in millions of dollars) is as follows: 2001 $26,120; 2002 $28,280; 2003 $30,630; 2004 $31,080; 2005 $31,720; 2006 $33,130 and 2007 $34,090. Note: Provisions with estimates denoted normal tax method have no revenue loss under the reference tax law method. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest $10 million. Provisions with estimates that rounded to zero in each year are not included in the table. Tax Expenditure Baselines A tax expenditure is an exception to baseline provisions of the tax structure. The 1974 Congressional Budget Act, which mandated the tax expenditure budget, did not specify the baseline provisions of the tax law. As noted previously, deciding whether provisions are exceptions, therefore, is a matter of judgement. As in prior years, this year’s tax expenditure estimates are presented using two baselines: the normal tax baseline, which is used by the Joint Committee on Taxation, and the reference tax law baseline, which has been reported by the Administration since 1983. The normal tax baseline is patterned on a comprehensive income tax, which defines income as the sum of consumption and the change in net wealth in a given period of time. The normal tax baseline allows personal exemptions, a standard deduction, and deductions of the expenses incurred in earning income. It is not limited to a particular structure of tax rates, or by a specific definition of the taxpaying unit. The reference tax law baseline is also patterned on a comprehensive income tax, but it is closer to existing law. Tax expenditures under the reference law baseline are generally tax expenditures under the normal tax baseline, but the reverse is not always true. Both the normal and reference tax baselines allow several major departures from a pure comprehensive income tax. For example: • Income is taxable only when it is realized in exchange. Thus, neither the deferral of tax on unrealized capital gains nor the tax exclusion of imputed income (such as the rental value of owneroccupied housing or farmers’ consumption of their own produce) is regarded as a tax expenditure. Both accrued and imputed income would be taxed under a comprehensive income tax. • There is a separate corporation income tax. Under a comprehensive income tax, corporate income would be taxed only once—at the shareholder level, whether or not distributed in the form of dividends. • Values of assets and debt are not adjusted for inflation. A comprehensive income tax would adjust the cost basis of capital assets and debt for changes in the price level during the time the assets or debt are held. Thus, under a comprehensive income tax baseline, the failure to take account of inflation in measuring depreciation, capital gains, and interest income would be regarded as a negative tax expenditure (i.e., a tax penalty), and failure to take account of inflation in measuring interest costs would be regarded as a positive tax expenditure (i.e., a tax subsidy). Although the reference law and normal tax baselines are generally similar, areas of difference include: Tax rates. The separate schedules applying to the various taxpaying units are included in the reference law baseline. Thus, corporate tax rates below the maximum statutory rate do not give rise to a tax expenditure. The normal tax baseline is similar, except that it specifies the current maximum rate as the baseline for the corporate income tax. The lower tax rates applied to the first $10 million of corporate income are thus regarded as a tax expenditure. Similarly, under the reference law baseline, preferential tax rates for capital gains generally do not yield a tax expenditure; 6. TAX EXPENDITURES only capital gains treatment of otherwise ‘‘ordinary income,’’ such as that from coal and iron ore royalties and the sale of timber and certain agricultural products, is considered a tax expenditure. The alternative minimum tax is treated as part of the baseline rate structure under both the reference and normal tax methods. Income subject to the tax. Income subject to tax is defined as gross income less the costs of earning that income. The Federal income tax defines gross income to include: (1) consideration received in the exchange of goods and services, including labor services or property; and (2) the taxpayer’s share of gross or net income earned and/or reported by another entity (such as a partnership). Under the reference tax rules, therefore, gross income does not include gifts—defined as receipts of money or property that are not consideration in an exchange—or most transfer payments, which can be thought of as gifts from the Government. 2 The normal tax baseline also excludes gifts between individuals from gross income. Under the normal tax baseline, however, all cash transfer payments from the Government to private individuals are counted in gross income, and exemptions of such transfers from tax are identified as tax expenditures. The costs of earning income are generally deductible in determining taxable income under both the reference and normal tax baselines. 3 Capital recovery. Under the reference tax law baseline no tax expenditures arise from accelerated depreciation. Under the normal tax baseline, the depreciation allowance for machinery and equipment is determined using straight-line depreciation over tax lives equal to mid-values of the asset depreciation range (a depreciation system in effect from 1971 through 1980). The normal tax baseline for real property is computed using 40-year straight-line depreciation. Treatment of foreign income. Both the normal and reference tax baselines allow a tax credit for foreign income taxes paid (up to the amount of U.S. income taxes that would otherwise be due), which prevents double taxation of income earned abroad. Under the normal tax method, however, controlled foreign corporations (CFCs) are not regarded as entities separate from their controlling U.S. shareholders. Thus, the deferral of tax on income received by CFCs is regarded as a tax expenditure under this method. In contrast, except for tax 2 Gross income does, however, include transfer paymnents associated with past employment, such as Social Security benefits. 3 In the case of individuals who hold ‘‘passive’’ equity interests in businesses, however, the pro-rata shares of sales and expense deductions reportable in a year are limited. A passive business activity is defined to be one in which the holder of the interest, usually a partnership interst, does not actively perform managerial or other participatory functions. The taxpayer may generally report no larger deductions for a year than will reduce taxable income from such activities to zero. Deductions in excess of the limitation may be taken in subsequent years, or when the interest is liquidated. In addition, costs of earning income may be limited under the alternative minimum tax. 113 haven activities, the reference law baseline follows current law in treating CFCs as separate taxable entities whose income is not subject to U.S. tax until distributed to U.S. taxpayers. Under this baseline, deferral of tax on CFC income is not a tax expenditure because U.S. taxpayers generally are not taxed on accrued, but unrealized, income. In addition to these areas of difference, the Joint Committee on Taxation considers a somewhat broader set of tax expenditures under its normal tax baseline than is considered here. Performance Measures and the Economic Effects of Tax Expenditures The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) directs Federal agencies to develop annual and strategic plans for their programs and activities. These plans set out performance objectives to be achieved over a specific time period. Most of these objectives will be achieved through direct expenditure programs. Tax expenditures, however, may also contribute to achieving these goals. The report of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee on GPRA 4 calls on the Executive branch to undertake a series of analyses to assess the effect of specific tax expenditures on the achievement of agencies’ performance objectives. The Executive Branch is continuing to focus on the availability of data needed to assess the effects of the tax expenditures designed to increase savings. Treasury’s Office of Tax Analysis and Statistics of Income Division (IRS) have developed a new sample of individual income tax filers as one part of this effort. This new ‘‘panel’’ sample will follow the same taxpayers over a period of at least ten years. The first year of this panel sample was drawn from tax returns filed in 2000 for tax year 1999. The sample will capture the changing demographic and economic circumstances of individuals and the effects of changes in tax law over an extended period of time. Data from the sample will therefore permit more extensive, and better, analyses of many tax provisions than can be performed using only annual (‘‘cross-section’’) data. In particular, data from this panel sample will enhance our ability to analyze the effect of tax expenditures designed to increase savings. Other efforts by OMB, Treasury, and other agencies to improve data available for the analysis of savings tax expenditures will continue over the next several years. Comparison of tax expenditure, spending, and regulatory policies. Tax expenditures by definition work through the tax system and, particularly, the income tax. Thus, they may be relatively advantageous policy approaches when the benefit or incentive is related to income and is intended to be widely available. Because there is an existing public administrative and private compliance structure for the tax system, the 4 Committee on Government Affairs, United States Senate, ‘‘Government Performance and Results Act of 1993’’ (Report 103–58, 1993). 114 incremental administrative and compliance costs for a tax expenditure may be low in many cases. In addition, some tax expenditures actually simplify the tax system, (for example, the exclusion for up to $500,000 of capital gains on home sales). Tax expenditures also implicitly subsidize certain activities. Spending, regulatory or taxdisincentive policies can also modify behavior, but may have different economic effects. Finally, a variety of tax expenditure tools can be used—e.g., deductions; credits; exemptions; deferrals; floors; ceilings; phase-ins; phase-outs; dependent on income, expenses, or demographic characteristics (age, number of family members, etc.). This wide range means that tax expenditures can be flexible and can have very different economic effects. Tax expenditures also have limitations. In many cases they add to the complexity of the tax system, which raises both administrative and compliance costs. For example, targeting personal exemptions and credits can complicate filing and decisionmaking. The income tax system may have little or no contact with persons who have no or very low incomes, and does not require information on certain characteristics of individuals used in some spending programs, such as wealth. These features may reduce the effectiveness of tax expenditures for addressing certain income-transfer objectives. Tax expenditures also generally do not enable the same degree of agency discretion as an outlay program. For example, grant or direct Federal service delivery programs can prioritize activities to be addressed with specific resources in a way that is difficult to emulate with tax expenditures. Finally, tax expenditures may not receive the same level of scrutiny afforded to other programs. Outlay programs have advantages where direct government service provision is particularly warranted— such as equipping and providing the armed forces or administering the system of justice. Outlay programs may also be specifically designed to meet the needs of low-income families who would not otherwise be subject to income taxes or need to file a tax return. Outlay programs may also receive more year-to-year oversight and fine tuning, through the legislative and executive budget process. In addition, many different types of spending programs—including direct government provision; credit programs; and payments to State and local governments, the private sector, or individuals in the form of grants or contracts—provide flexibility for policy design. On the other hand, certain outlay programs— such as direct government service provision—may rely less directly on economic incentives and private-market provision than tax incentives, which may reduce the relative efficiency of spending programs for some goals. Spending programs also require resources to be raised via taxes, user charges, or government borrowing, which can impose further costs by diverting resources from their most efficient uses. Finally, spending programs, particularly on the discretionary side, may respond less readily to changing activity levels and economic conditions than tax expenditures. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Regulations have more direct and immediate effects than outlay and tax-expenditure programs because regulations apply directly and immediately to the regulated party (i.e., the intended actor)—generally in the private sector. Regulations can also be fine-tuned more quickly than tax expenditures, because they can generally be changed by the executive branch without legislation. Like tax expenditures, regulations often rely largely upon voluntary compliance, rather than detailed inspections and policing. As such, the public administrative costs tend to be modest, relative to the private resource costs associated with modifying activities. Historically, regulations have tended to rely on proscriptive measures, as opposed to economic incentives. This reliance can diminish their economic efficiency, although this feature can also promote full compliance where (as in certain safety-related cases) policymakers believe that trade-offs with economic considerations are not of paramount importance. Also, regulations generally do not directly affect Federal outlays or receipts. Thus, like tax expenditures, they may escape the type of scrutiny that outlay programs receive. However, most regulations are subjected to a formal benefit-cost analysis that goes well beyond the analysis required for outlays and tax-expenditures. To some extent, the GPRA requirement for performance evaluation will address this lack of formal analysis. Some policy objectives are achieved using multiple approaches. For example, minimum wage legislation, the earned income tax credit, and the food stamp program are regulatory, tax expenditure, and direct outlay programs, respectively, all having the objective of improving the economic welfare of low-wage workers. Tax expenditures, like spending and regulatory programs, have a variety of objectives and effects. These include: encouraging certain types of activities (e.g., saving for retirement or investing in certain sectors); increasing certain types of after-tax income (e.g., favorable tax treatment of Social Security income); reducing private compliance costs and government administrative costs (e.g., the exclusion for up to $500,000 of capital gains on home sales); and promoting tax neutrality (e.g., accelerated depreciation in the presence of inflation). Some of these objectives are well suited to quantitative measurement, while others are less well suited. Also, many tax expenditures, including those cited above, may have more than one objective. For example, accelerated depreciation may encourage investment. In addition, the economic effects of particular provisions can extend beyond their intended objectives (e.g., a provision intended to promote an activity or raise certain incomes may have positive or negative effects on tax neutrality). Performance measurement is generally concerned with inputs, outputs, and outcomes. In the case of tax expenditures, the principal input is usually the revenue effect. Outputs are quantitative or qualitative measures of goods and services, or changes in income and investment, directly produced by these inputs. Outcomes, in 6. TAX EXPENDITURES turn, represent the changes in the economy, society, or environment that are the ultimate goals of programs. Thus, for a provision that reduces taxes on certain investment activity, an increase in the amount of investment would likely be a key output. The resulting production from that investment, and, in turn, the associated improvements in national income, welfare, or security, could be the outcomes of interest. For other provisions, such as those designed to address a potential inequity or unintended consequence in the tax code, an important performance measure might be how they change effective tax rates (the discounted present-value of taxes owed on new investments or incremental earnings) or excess burden (an economic measure of the distortions caused by taxes). Effects on the incomes of members of particular groups may be an important measure for certain provisions. An overview of evaluation issues by budget function. The discussion below considers the types of measures that might be useful for some major programmatic groups of tax expenditures. The discussion is intended to be illustrative and not all encompassing. However, it is premised on the assumption that the data needed to perform the analysis are available or can be developed. In practice, data availability is likely to be a major challenge, and data constraints may limit the assessment of the effectiveness of many provisions. In addition, such assessments can raise significant challenges in economic modeling. National defense.—Some tax expenditures are intended to assist governmental activities. For example, tax preferences for military benefits reflect, among other things, the view that benefits such as housing, subsistence, and moving expenses are intrinsic aspects of military service, and are provided, in part, for the benefit of the employer, the U.S. Government. Tax benefits for combat service are intended to reduce tax burdens on military personnel undertaking hazardous service for the Nation. A portion of the tax expenditure associated with foreign earnings is targeted to benefit U.S. Government civilian personnel working abroad by offsetting the living costs that can be higher than those in the United States. These tax expenditures should be considered together with direct agency budget costs in making programmatic decisions. International affairs.—Tax expenditures are also aimed at goals such as tax neutrality. These include the exclusion for income earned abroad by nongovernmental employees and exclusions for income of U.S.controlled foreign corporations. Measuring the effectiveness of these provisions raises challenging issues. General science, space and technology; energy; natural resources and the environment; agriculture; and commerce and housing.—A series of tax expenditures reduces the cost of investment, both in specific activities—such as research and experimentation, extractive industries, and certain financial ac- 115 tivities—and more generally, through accelerated depreciation for plant and equipment. These provisions can be evaluated along a number of dimensions. For example, it could be useful to consider the strength of the incentives by measuring their effects on the cost of capital (the interest rate which investments must yield to cover their costs) and effective tax rates. The impact of these provisions on the amounts of corresponding forms of investment (e.g., research spending, exploration activity, equipment) might also be estimated. In some cases, such as research, there is evidence that the investment can provide significant positive externalities—that is, economic benefits that are not reflected in the market transactions between private parties. It could be useful to quantify these externalities and compare them with the size of tax expenditures. Measures could also indicate the effects on production from these investments—such as numbers or values of patents, energy production and reserves, and industrial production. Issues to be considered include the extent to which the preferences increase production (as opposed to benefitting existing output) and their costeffectiveness relative to other policies. Analysis could also consider objectives that are more difficult to measure but still are ultimate goals, such as promoting the Nation’s technological base, energy security, environmental quality, or economic growth. Such an assessment is likely to involve tax analysis as well as consideration of non-tax matters such as market structure, scientific, and other information (such as the effects of increased domestic fuel production on imports from various regions, or the effects of various energy sources on the environment). Housing investment also benefits from tax expenditures. The mortgage interest deduction on personal residences is a tax expenditure because the value of owneroccupied housing services is not included in a taxpayer’s taxable income. Taxpayers also may exclude up to $500,000 of the capital gains from the sale of personal residences. Measures of the effectiveness of these provisions could include their effects on increasing the extent of home ownership and the quality of housing. In addition, the mortgage interest deduction offsets the taxable nature of investment income received by homeowners, so the relationship between the deduction and such earnings is also relevant to evaluation of this provision. Similarly, analysis of the extent of accumulated inflationary gains is likely to be relevant to evaluation of the capital gains for home sales. Deductibility of State and local property taxes assists with making housing more affordable as well as easing the cost of providing community services through these taxes. Provisions intended to promote investment in rental housing could be evaluated for their effects on making such housing more available and affordable. These provisions should then be compared with alternative programs that address housing supply and demand. Transportation.—Employer-provided parking is a fringe benefit that, for the most part, is excluded from taxation. The tax expenditure estimates reflect the cost 116 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES of parking that is leased by employers for employees; an estimate is not currently available for the value of parking owned by employers and provided to their employees. The exclusion for employer-provided transit passes is intended to promote use of this mode of transportation, which has environmental and congestion benefits. The tax treatments of these different benefits could be compared with alternative transportation policies. Other provisions principally affect the incomes of members of certain groups, rather than affecting incentives. For example, tax-favored treatment of Social Security benefits, certain veterans benefits, and deductions for the blind and elderly provide increased incomes to eligible parties. The earned-income tax credit, in contrast, should be evaluated for its effects on labor force participation as well as the income it provides lower-income workers. Community and regional development.—A series of tax expenditures is intended to promote community and regional development by reducing the costs of financing specialized infrastructure, such as airports, docks, and stadiums. Empowerment zone and enterprise community provisions are designed to promote activity in disadvantaged areas. These provisions can be compared with grants and other policies designed to spur economic development. General purpose fiscal assistance and interest.— The tax-exemption for public purpose State and local bonds reduces the costs of borrowing for a variety of purposes (borrowing for non-public purposes is reflected under other budget functions). The deductibility of certain State and local taxes reflected under this function primarily relates to personal income taxes (property tax deductibility is reflected under the commerce and housing function). Tax preferences for Puerto Rico and other U.S. possessions are also included here. These provisions can be compared with other tax and spending policies as means of benefitting fiscal and economic conditions in the States, localities, and possessions. Finally, the tax deferral for interest on U.S. savings bonds benefits savers who invest in these instruments. The extent of these benefits and any effects on Federal borrowing costs could be evaluated. The above illustrative discussion, although broad, is nevertheless incomplete, omitting important details both for the provisions mentioned and the many that are not explicitly cited. Developing a framework that is sufficiently comprehensive, accurate, and flexible to reflect the objectives and effects of the wide range of tax expenditures will be a significant challenge. OMB, Treasury, and other agencies will work together, as appropriate, to address this challenge. As indicated above, over the next few years the Executive Branch’s focus will be on the availability of the data needed to assess the effects of the tax expenditures designed to increase savings. Education, training, employment, and social services.—Major provisions in this function are intended to promote post-secondary education, to offset costs of raising children, and to promote a variety of charitable activities. The education incentives can be compared with loans, grants, and other programs designed to promote higher education and training. The child credits are intended to adjust the tax system for the costs of raising children; as such, they could be compared to other Federal tax and spending policies, including related features of the tax system, such as personal exemptions (which are not defined as a tax expenditure). Evaluation of charitable activities requires consideration of the beneficiaries of these activities, who are generally not the parties receiving the tax reduction. Health.—Individuals also benefit from favorable treatment of employer-provided health insurance. Measures of these benefits could include increased coverage and pooling of risks. The effects of insurance coverage on final outcome measures of actual health (e.g., infant mortality, days of work lost due to illness, or life expectancy) or intermediate outcomes (e.g., use of preventive health care or health care costs) could also be investigated. Income security, Social Security, and veterans benefits and services.—Major tax expenditures in the income security function benefit retirement savings, through employer-provided pensions, individual retirement accounts, and Keogh plans. These provisions might be evaluated in terms of their effects on boosting retirement incomes, private savings, and national savings (which would include the effect on private savings as well as public savings or deficits). Interactions with other programs, including Social Security, also may merit analysis. As in the case of employer-provided health insurance, analysis of employer-provided pension programs requires imputing the value of benefits funded at the firm level to individuals. Descriptions of Income Tax Provisions Descriptions of the individual and corporate income tax expenditures reported upon in this chapter follow. These descriptions relate to current law as of December 31, 2001, and do not reflect proposals made elsewhere in the Budget. National Defense 1. Benefits and allowances to armed forces personnel.—The housing and meals provided military personnel, either in cash or in kind, as well as certain amounts of pay related to combat service, are excluded from income subject to tax. International Affairs 2. Income earned abroad.—U.S. citizens who lived abroad, worked in the private sector, and satisfied a foreign residency requirement in 2001 may exclude up to $78,000 in foreign earned income from U.S. taxes. 117 6. TAX EXPENDITURES The exclusion increases to $80,000 in 2002 (and thereafter). In addition, if these taxpayers receive a specific allowance for foreign housing from their employers, they may also exclude the value of that allowance. If they do not receive a specific allowance for housing expenses, they may deduct against their U.S. taxes that portion of such expenses that exceeds one-sixth the salary of a civil servant at grade GS–14, step 1 ($67,765 in 2001). 3. Exclusion of certain allowances for Federal employees abroad.—U.S. Federal civilian employees and Peace Corps members who work outside the continental United States are allowed to exclude from U.S. taxable income certain special allowances they receive to compensate them for the relatively high costs associated with living overseas. The allowances supplement wage income and cover expenses like rent, education, and the cost of travel to and from the United States. 4. Extraterritorial income exclusion 5.—For purposes of calculating U.S. tax liability, a taxpayer may exclude from gross income the qualifying foreign trade income attributable to foreign trading gross receipts. The exclusion generally applies to income from the sale or lease of qualifying foreign trade property and certain types of services income. The FSC Repeal and Extraterritorial Income Exclusion Act of 2000 created the extraterritorial income exclusion to replace the foreign sales corporation provisions, which the Act repealed. The exclusion is generally available for transactions entered into after September 30, 2000. 5. Sales source rule exceptions.—The worldwide income of U.S. persons is taxable by the United States and a credit for foreign taxes paid is allowed. The amount of foreign taxes that can be credited is limited to the pre-credit U.S. tax on the foreign source income. The sales source rules for inventory property allow U.S. exporters to use more foreign tax credits by allowing the exporters to attribute a larger portion of their earnings abroad than would be the case if the allocation of earnings was based on actual economic activity. 6. Income of U.S.-controlled foreign corporations.—The income of foreign corporations controlled by U.S. shareholders is not subject to U.S. taxation. The income becomes taxable only when the controlling U.S. shareholders receive dividends or other distributions from their foreign stockholding. Under the normal tax method, the currently attributable foreign source pre-tax income from such a controlling interest is considered to be subject to U.S. taxation, whether or not distributed. Thus, the normal tax method considers the amount of controlled foreign corporation income not distributed to a U.S. shareholder as tax-deferred income. 7. Exceptions under subpart F for active financing income.—Financial firms can defer taxes on income earned overseas in an active business. Taxes on 5 The determination of whether a provision is a tax expenditure is made on the basis of a broad concept of ‘‘income’’ that is larger in scope than is ‘‘income’’ as defined under general U.S. income tax principles. For that reason, the tax expenditure extimates include, for example, estimtes related to the exclusion of extraterritorial income, as well as other exclusions, notwithstanding that such exclusions define income under the general rule of U.S. income taxation. income earned through December 31, 2001 can be deferred. General Science, Space, and Technology 8. Expensing R&E expenditures.—Research and experimentation (R&E) projects can be viewed as investments because, if successful, their benefits accrue for several years. It is often difficult, however, to identify whether a specific R&E project is successful and, if successful, what its expected life will be. Under the normal tax method, the expensing of R&E expenditures is viewed as a tax expenditure. The baseline assumed for the normal tax method is that all R&E expenditures are successful and have an expected life of five years. 9. R&E credit.—The research and experimentation (R&E) credit is 20 percent of qualified research expenditures in excess of a base amount. The base amount is generally determined by multiplying a ‘‘fixed-base percentage’’ by the average amount of the company’s gross receipts for the prior four years. The taxpayer’s fixed base percentage generally is the ratio of its research expenses to gross receipts for 1984 through 1988. Taxpayers may also elect an alternative credit regime. Under the alternative credit regime the taxpayer is assigned a three-tiered fixed-base percentage that is lower than the fixed-base percentage that would otherwise apply, and the credit rate is reduced (the rates range from 2.65 percent to 3.75 percent). A 20percent credit with a separate threshold is provided for a taxpayer’s payments to universities for basic research. The credit applies to research conducted before July 1, 2004 and extends to research conducted in Puerto Rico and the U.S. possessions. Energy 10. Exploration and development costs.—For successful investments in domestic oil and gas wells, intangible drilling costs (e.g., wages, the costs of using machinery for grading and drilling, the cost of unsalvageable materials used in constructing wells) may be expensed rather than amortized over the productive life of the property. Integrated oil companies may deduct only 70 percent of such costs and must amortize the remaining 30 percent over five years. The same rule applies to the exploration and development costs of surface stripping and the construction of shafts and tunnels for other fuel minerals. 11. Percentage depletion.—Independent fuel mineral producers and royalty owners are generally allowed to take percentage depletion deductions rather than cost depletion on limited quantities of output. Under cost depletion, outlays are deducted over the productive life of the property based on the fraction of the resource extracted. Under percentage depletion, taxpayers deduct a percentage of gross income from mineral production at rates of 22 percent for uranium; 15 percent for oil, gas and oil shale; and 10 percent for coal. The deduction is limited to 50 percent of net income from the property, except for oil and gas where the deduction can be 100 percent of net property income. Production 118 from geothermal deposits is eligible for percentage depletion at 65 percent of net income, but with no limit on output and no limitation with respect to qualified producers. Unlike depreciation or cost depletion, percentage depletion deductions can exceed the cost of the investment. 12. Alternative fuel production credit.—A nontaxable credit of $3 per oil-equivalent barrel of production (in 1979 dollars) is provided for several forms of alternative fuels. The credit is generally available if the price of oil stays below $29.50 (in 1979 dollars). The credit generally expires on December 31, 2002. 13. Oil and gas exception to passive loss limitation.—Owners of working interests in oil and gas properties are exempt from the ‘‘passive income’’ limitations. As a result, the working interest-holder, who manages on behalf of himself and all other owners the development of wells and incurs all the costs of their operation, may aggregate negative taxable income from such interests with his income from all other sources. 14. Capital gains treatment of royalties on coal.—Sales of certain coal under royalty contracts can be treated as capital gains rather than ordinary income. 15. Energy facility bonds.—Interest earned on State and local bonds used to finance construction of certain energy facilities is tax-exempt. These bonds are generally subject to the State private-activity bond annual volume cap. 16. Enhanced oil recovery credit.—A credit is provided equal to 15 percent of the taxpayer’s costs for tertiary oil recovery on U.S. projects. Qualifying costs include tertiary injectant expenses, intangible drilling and development costs on a qualified enhanced oil recovery project, and amounts incurred for tangible depreciable property. 17. New technology credits.—A credit of 10 percent is available for investment in solar and geothermal energy facilities. In addition, a credit of 1.5 cents is provided per kilowatt hour of electricity produced from renewable resources such as wind, biomass, and poultry waste facilities. The renewable resources credit applies only to electricity produced by a facility placed in service on or before December 31, 2001. 18. Alcohol fuel credits.—An income tax credit is provided for ethanol that is derived from renewable sources and used as fuel. The credit equals 53 cents per gallon in 2001 and 2002; 52 cents per gallon in 2003 and 2004; and 51 cents per gallon in 2005, 2006, and 2007. To the extent that ethanol is mixed with taxable motor fuel to create gasohol, taxpayers may claim an exemption of the Federal excise tax rather than the income tax credit. In addition, small ethanol producers are eligible for a separate 10 cents per gallon credit. 19. Credit and deduction for clean-fuel vehicles and property.—A tax credit of 10 percent (not to exceed $4,000) is provided for purchasers of electric vehicles. Purchasers of other clean-fuel burning vehicles and owners of clean-fuel refueling property may deduct ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES part of their expenditures. The credit and deduction are phased out from 2002 through 2005. 20. Exclusion of utility conservation subsidies.— Non-business customers can exclude from gross income subsidies received from public utilities for expenditures on energy conservation measures. Natural Resources and Environment 21. Exploration and development costs.—Certain capital outlays associated with exploration and development of nonfuel minerals may be expensed rather than depreciated over the life of the asset. 22. Percentage depletion.—Most nonfuel mineral extractors may use percentage depletion rather than cost depletion, with percentage depletion rates ranging from 22 percent for sulfur to 5 percent for sand and gravel. 23. Sewage, water, solid and hazardous waste facility bonds.—Interest earned on State and local bonds used to finance the construction of sewage, water, or hazardous waste facilities is tax-exempt. These bonds are generally subject to the State private-activity bond annual volume cap. 24. Capital gains treatment of certain timber.— Certain timber sold under a royalty contract can be treated as a capital gain rather than ordinary income. 25. Expensing multiperiod timber growing costs.—Most of the production costs of growing timber may be expensed rather than capitalized and deducted when the timber is sold. In most other industries, these costs are capitalized under the uniform capitalization rules. 26. Historic preservation.—Expenditures to preserve and restore historic structures qualify for a 20percent investment credit, but the depreciable basis must be reduced by the full amount of the credit taken. Agriculture 27. Expensing certain capital outlays.—Farmers, except for certain agricultural corporations and partnerships, are allowed to expense certain expenditures for feed and fertilizer, as well as for soil and water conservation measures. Expensing is allowed, even though these expenditures are for inventories held beyond the end of the year, or for capital improvements that would otherwise be capitalized. 28. Expensing multiperiod livestock and crop production costs.—The production of livestock and crops with a production period of less than two years is exempt from the uniform cost capitalization rules. Farmers establishing orchards, constructing farm facilities for their own use, or producing any goods for sale with a production period of two years or more may elect not to capitalize costs. If they do, they must apply straight-line depreciation to all depreciable property they use in farming. 29. Loans forgiven solvent farmers.—Farmers are forgiven the tax liability on certain forgiven debt. Normally, a debtor must include the amount of loan forgiveness as income or reduce his recoverable basis in 6. TAX EXPENDITURES the property to which the loan relates. If the debtor elects to reduce basis and the amount of forgiveness exceeds his basis in the property, the excess forgiveness is taxable. For insolvent (bankrupt) debtors, however, the amount of loan forgiveness reduces carryover losses, then unused credits, and then basis; any remainder of the forgiven debt is excluded from tax. Farmers with forgiven debt are considered insolvent for tax purposes, and thus qualify for income tax forgiveness. 30. Capital gains treatment of certain income.— Certain agricultural income, such as unharvested crops, can be treated as capital gains rather than ordinary income. 31. Income averaging for farmers.—Taxpayers can lower their tax liability by averaging, over the prior three-year period, their taxable income from farming. 32. Deferral of gain on sales of farm refiners.— A taxpayer who sells stock in a farm refiner to a farmers’ cooperative can defer recognition of gain if the taxpayer reinvests the proceeds in qualified replacement property. Commerce and Housing This category includes a number of tax expenditure provisions that also affect economic activity in other functional categories. For example, provisions related to investment, such as accelerated depreciation, could be classified under the energy, natural resources and environment, agriculture, or transportation categories. 33. Credit union income.—The earnings of credit unions not distributed to members as interest or dividends are exempt from income tax. 34. Bad debt reserves.—Small (less than $500 million in assets) commercial banks, mutual savings banks, and savings and loan associations may deduct additions to bad debt reserves in excess of actually experienced losses. 35. Deferral of income on life insurance and annuity contracts.—Favorable tax treatment is provided for investment income within qualified life insurance and annuity contracts. Investment income earned on qualified life insurance contracts held until death is permanently exempt from income tax. Investment income distributed prior to the death of the insured is tax-deferred, if not tax-exempt. Investment income earned on annuities is treated less favorably than income earned on life insurance contracts, but it benefits from tax deferral without annual contribution or income limits generally applicable to other tax-favored retirement income plans. 36. Small property and casualty insurance companies.—Insurance companies that have annual net premium incomes of less than $350,000 are exempt from tax; those with $350,000 to $2.1 million of net premium incomes may elect to pay tax only on the income earned by their investment portfolio. 37. Insurance companies owned by exempt organizations.—Generally, the income generated by life and property and casualty insurance companies is subject to tax, albeit by special rules. Insurance operations 119 conducted by such exempt organizations as fraternal societies and voluntary employee benefit associations, however, are exempt from tax. 38. Small life insurance company deduction.— Small life insurance companies (gross assets of less than $500 million) can deduct 60 percent of the first $3 million of otherwise taxable income. The deduction phases out for otherwise taxable income between $3 million and $15 million. 39. Mortgage housing bonds.—Interest earned on State and local bonds used to finance homes purchased by first-time, low-to-moderate-income buyers is tax-exempt. The amount of State and local tax-exempt bonds that can be issued to finance these and other private activity is limited. The combined volume cap for private activity bonds, including mortgage housing bonds, rental housing bonds, student loan bonds, and industrial development bonds is $62.50 per capita ($187.5 million minimum) per State in 2001, and $75 per capita ($225 million minimum) in 2002. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 accelerated the scheduled increase in the state volume cap and indexed the cap for inflation, beginning in 2003. States may issue mortgage credit certificates (MCCs) in lieu of mortgage revenue bonds. MCCs entitle home buyers to income tax credits for a specified percentage of interest on qualified mortgages. The total amount of MCCs issued by a State cannot exceed 25 percent of its annual ceiling for mortgage-revenue bonds. 40. Rental housing bonds.—Interest earned on State and local government bonds used to finance multifamily rental housing projects is tax-exempt. At least 20 percent (15 percent in targeted areas) of the units must be reserved for families whose income does not exceed 50 percent of the area’s median income; or 40 percent for families with incomes of no more than 60 percent of the area median income. Other tax-exempt bonds for multifamily rental projects are generally issued with the requirement that all tenants must be low or moderate income families. Rental housing bonds are subject to the volume cap discussed in the mortgage housing bond section above. 41. Interest on owner-occupied homes.—Owner-occupants of homes may deduct mortgage interest on their primary and secondary residences as itemized nonbusiness deductions. The mortgage interest deduction is limited to interest on debt no greater than the owner’s basis in the residence and, for debt incurred after October 13, 1987, it is limited to no more than $1 million. Interest on up to $100,000 of other debt secured by a lien on a principal or second residence is also deductible, irrespective of the purpose of borrowing, provided the debt does not exceed the fair market value of the residence. Mortgage interest deductions on personal residences are tax expenditures because the value of owner-occupied housing services is not included in a taxpayer’s taxable income. 42. Taxes on owner-occupied homes.—Owner-occupants of homes may deduct property taxes on their primary and secondary residences even though they are 120 not required to report the value of owner-occupied housing services as gross income. 43. Installment sales.—Dealers in real and personal property (i.e., sellers who regularly hold property for sale or resale) cannot defer taxable income from installment sales until the receipt of the loan repayment. Nondealers (i.e., sellers of real property used in their business) are required to pay interest on deferred taxes attributable to their total installment obligations in excess of $5 million. Only properties with sales prices exceeding $150,000 are includable in the total. The payment of a market rate of interest eliminates the benefit of the tax deferral. The tax exemption for nondealers with total installment obligations of less than $5 million is, therefore, a tax expenditure. 44. Capital gains exclusion on home sales.—A homeowner can exclude from tax up to $500,000 ($250,000 for singles) of the capital gains from the sale of a principal residence. The exclusion may not be used more than once every two years. 45. Passive loss real estate exemption.—In general, passive losses may not offset income from other sources. Losses up to $25,000 attributable to certain rental real estate activity, however, are exempt from this rule. 46. Low-income housing credit.—Taxpayers who invest in certain low-income housing are eligible for a tax credit. The credit rate is set so that the present value of the credit is equal to 70 percent for new construction and 30 percent for (1) housing receiving other Federal benefits (such as tax-exempt bond financing), or (2) substantially rehabilitated existing housing. The credit is allowed in equal amounts over 10 years. State agencies determine who receives the credit; States are limited in the amount of credit they may authorize annually. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 increased the per-resident limit to $1.50 in 2001 and to $1.75 in 2002 and indexed the limit for inflation, beginning in 2003. The Act also created a $2 million minimum annual cap for small States beginning in 2002; the cap is indexed for inflation, beginning in 2003. 47. Accelerated depreciation of rental property.— The tax depreciation allowance provisions are part of the reference law rules, and thus do not give rise to tax expenditures under the reference method. Under the normal tax method, however, a 40-year tax life for depreciable real property is the norm. Thus, a statutory depreciation period for rental property of 27.5 years is a tax expenditure. In addition, tax expenditures arise from pre-1987 tax allowances for rental property. 48. Cancellation of indebtedness.—Individuals are not required to report the cancellation of certain indebtedness as current income. If the canceled debt is not reported as current income, however, the basis of the underlying property must be reduced by the amount canceled. 49. Imputed interest rules.—Holders (issuers) of debt instruments are generally required to report inter- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES est earned (paid) in the period it accrues, not when paid. In addition, the amount of interest accrued is determined by the actual price paid, not by the stated principal and interest stipulated in the instrument. In general, any debt associated with the sale of property worth less than $250,000 is excepted from the general interest accounting rules. This general $250,000 exception is not a tax expenditure under reference law but is under normal law. Exceptions above $250,000 are a tax expenditure under reference law; these exceptions include the following: (1) sales of personal residences worth more than $250,000, and (2) sales of farms and small businesses worth between $250,000 and $1 million. 50. Capital gains (other than agriculture, timber, iron ore, and coal).—Capital gains on assets held for more than 1 year are taxed at a lower rate than ordinary income. The lower rate on capital gains is considered a tax expenditure under the normal tax method but not under the reference law method. For most assets held for more than 1 year, the top capital gains tax rate is 20 percent. For assets acquired after December 31, 2000, the top capital gains tax rate for assets held for more than 5 years is 18 percent. On January 1, 2001, taxpayers may mark-to-market existing assets to start the 5-year holding period. Losses from the mark-to-market are not recognized. For assets held for more than 1 year by taxpayers in the 15-percent ordinary tax bracket, the top capital gains tax rate is 10 percent. After December 31, 2000, the top capital gains tax rate for assets held by these taxpayers for more than 5 years is 8 percent. 51. Capital gains exclusion for small business stock.—An exclusion of 50 percent is provided for capital gains from qualified small business stock held by individuals for more than 5 years. A qualified small business is a corporation whose gross assets do not exceed $50 million as of the date of issuance of the stock. 52. Step-up in basis of capital gains at death.— Capital gains on assets held at the owner’s death are not subject to capital gains taxes. The cost basis of the appreciated assets is adjusted upward to the market value at the owner’s date of death. After repeal of the estate tax under EGTRRA for 2010, the basis for property acquired from a decedent will be the lesser of fair market value or the decedent’s basis. Certain types of additions to basis will be allowed so that assets in most estates that are not currently subject to estate tax will not be subject to capital gains tax in the hands of the heirs. 53. Carryover basis of capital gains on gifts.— When a gift is made, the donor’s basis in the transferred property (the cost that was incurred when the transferred property was first acquired) carries-over to the donee. The carryover of the donor’s basis allows a continued deferral of unrealized capital gains. Even though the estate tax is repealed for 2010 under EGTRRA, the gift tax is retained with a lifetime exemption of $1 million. 121 6. TAX EXPENDITURES 54. Ordinary income treatment of losses from sale of small business corporate stock shares.— Up to $100,000 in losses from the sale of small business corporate stock (capitalization less than $1 million) may be treated as ordinary losses. Such losses would, thus, not be subject to the $3,000 annual capital loss writeoff limit. 55. Accelerated depreciation of non-rental-housing buildings.—The tax depreciation allowance provisions are part of the reference law rules, and thus do not give rise to tax expenditures under reference law. Under normal law, however, a 40-year life for nonrental-housing buildings is the norm. Thus, the 39-year depreciation period for property placed in service after February 25, 1993, the 31.5-year depreciation period for property placed in service from 1987 to February 25, 1993, and the pre-1987 depreciation periods create a tax expenditure. 56. Accelerated depreciation of machinery and equipment.—The tax depreciation allowance provisions are part of the reference law rules, and thus do not give rise to tax expenditures under reference law. Under the normal tax baseline, this tax depreciation allowance is measured relative to straight-line depreciation using Asset Depreciation Range (ADR) lives. Statutory depreciation of machinery and equipment is accelerated relative to this baseline, thereby creating a tax expenditure under the normal tax rules. 57. Expensing of certain small investments.—In 2001, qualifying investments in tangible property up to $24,000 can be expensed rather than depreciated over time. The expensing limit increases to $25,000 in 2003. To the extent that qualifying investment during the year exceeds $200,000, the amount eligible for expensing is decreased. In 2001, the amount expensed is completely phased out when qualifying investments exceed $224,000. 58. Business start-up costs.—When taxpayers enter into a new business, certain start-up expenses, such as the cost of legal services, are normally incurred. Taxpayers may elect to amortize these outlays over 60 months even though they are similar to other payments made for nondepreciable intangible assets that are not recoverable until the business is sold. The normal tax method treats this amortization as a tax expenditure; the reference tax method does not. 59. Graduated corporation income tax rate schedule.—The corporate income tax schedule is graduated, with rates of 15 percent on the first $50,000 of taxable income, 25 percent on the next $25,000, and 34 percent on the next $9.925 million. Compared with a flat 34-percent rate, the lower rates provide an $11,750 reduction in tax liability for corporations with taxable income of $75,000. This benefit is recaptured for corporations with taxable incomes exceeding $100,000 by a 5-percent additional tax on corporate incomes in excess of $100,000 but less than $335,000. The corporate tax rate is 35 percent on income over $10 million. Compared with a flat 35-percent tax rate, the 34-percent rate provides a $100,000 reduction in tax liability for corporations with taxable incomes of $10 million. This benefit is recaptured for corporations with taxable incomes exceeding $15 million by a 3percent additional tax on income over $15 million but less than $18.33 million. Because the corporate rate schedule is part of reference tax law, it is not considered a tax expenditure under the reference method. A flat corporation income tax rate is taken as the baseline under the normal tax method; therefore the lower rates is considered a tax expenditure under this concept. 60. Small issue industrial development bonds.— Interest earned on small issue industrial development bonds (IDBs) issued by State and local governments to finance manufacturing facilities is tax-exempt. Depreciable property financed with small issue IDBs must be depreciated, however, using the straight-line method. The annual volume of small issue IDBs is subject to the unified volume cap discussed in the mortgage housing bond section above. Transportation 61. Deferral of tax on U.S. shipping companies.— Certain companies that operate U.S. flag vessels can defer income taxes on that portion of their income used for shipping purposes, primarily construction, modernization and major repairs to ships, and repayment of loans to finance these investments. Once indefinite, the deferral has been limited to 25 years since January 1, 1987. 62. Exclusion of employee parking expenses.— Employee parking expenses that are paid for by the employer or that are received in lieu of wages are excludable from the income of the employee. In 2001, the maximum amount of the parking exclusion is $180 (indexed) per month. The tax expenditure estimate does not include parking at facilities owned by the employer. 63. Exclusion of employee transit pass expenses.—Transit passes, tokens, fare cards, and vanpool expenses paid for by an employer or provided in lieu of wages to defray an employee’s commuting costs are excludable from the employee’s income. In 2001, the maximum amount of the exclusion is $65 (indexed) per month. In 2002, the maximum amount of the exclusion increases to $100 (indexed) per month. Community and Regional Development 64. Rehabilitation of structures.—A 10-percent investment tax credit is available for the rehabilitation of buildings that are used for business or productive activities and that were erected before 1936 for other than residential purposes. The taxpayer’s recoverable basis must be reduced by the amount of the credit. 65. Airport, dock, and similar facility bonds.— Interest earned on State and local bonds issued to finance high-speed rail facilities and government-owned airports, docks, wharves, and sport and convention facilities is tax-exempt. These bonds are not subject to a volume cap. 122 66. Exemption of income of mutuals and cooperatives.—The incomes of mutual and cooperative telephone and electric companies are exempt from tax if at least 85 percent of their revenues are derived from patron service charges. 67. Empowerment zones, enterprise communities, and renewal communities.—Qualifying businesses in designated economically depressed areas can receive tax benefits such as an employer wage credit, increased expensing of investment in equipment, special tax-exempt financing, accelerated depreciation, and certain capital gains incentives. In addition, certain first-time buyers of a principal residence in the District of Columbia can receive a tax credit on homes purchased on or before December 31, 2003, and investors in certain D.C. property can receive a capital gains break. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 created the renewal communities tax benefits, which begin on January 1, 2002 and expire on December 31, 2009. The Act also created additional empowerment zones, increased the tax benefits for empowerment zones, and extended the expiration date of (1) empowerment zones from December 31, 2004 to December 31, 2009, and (2) the D.C. home-buyer credit from December 31, 2001 to December 31, 2003. 68. New markets tax credit.—Taxpayers who invest in a community development entity (CDE) after December 31, 2000 are eligible for a tax credit. The total equity investment available for the credit across all CDEs is $1.0 billion in 2001, $1.5 billion in 2002 and 2003, $2.0 billion in 2004 and 2005, and $3.5 billion in 2006 and 2007. The amount of the credit equals (1) 5 percent in the year of purchase and the following 2 years, and (2) 6 percent in the following 4 years. A CDE is any domestic firm whose primary mission is to serve or provide investment capital for low-income communities/individuals; a CDE must be accountable to residents of low-income communities. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 created the new markets tax credit. 69. Expensing of environmental remediation costs.—Taxpayers who clean up certain hazardous substances at a qualified site may expense the clean-up costs, rather than capitalize the costs, even though the expenses will generally increase the value of the property significantly or appreciably prolong the life of the property. The expensing only applies to clean-up costs incurred on or before December 31, 2003. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 extended the expiration date from December 31, 2001 to December 31, 2003. The Act also expanded the number of qualified sites. Education, Training, Employment, and Social Services 70. Scholarship and fellowship income.—Scholarships and fellowships are excluded from taxable income to the extent they pay for tuition and course-related expenses of the grantee. Similarly, tuition reductions for employees of educational institutions and their fami- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES lies are not included in taxable income. From an economic point of view, scholarships and fellowships are either gifts not conditioned on the performance of services, or they are rebates of educational costs. Thus, under the reference law method, this exclusion is not a tax expenditure because this method does not include either gifts or price reductions in a taxpayer’s gross income. The exclusion, however, is considered a tax expenditure under the normal tax method, which includes gift-like transfers of government funds in gross income (many scholarships are derived directly or indirectly from government funding). 71. HOPE tax credit.—The non-refundable HOPE tax credit allows a credit for 100 percent of an eligible student’s first $1,000 of tuition and fees and 50 percent of the next $1,000 of tuition and fees. The credit only covers tuition and fees paid during the first two years of a student’s post-secondary education. The credit is phased out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $80,000 and $100,000 ($40,000 and $50,000 for singles) (indexed beginning in 2002). 72. Lifetime learning tax credit.—The non-refundable Lifetime Learning tax credit allows a credit for 20 percent of an eligible student’s tuition and fees. For tuition and fees paid before January 1, 2003, the maximum credit per return is $1,000. For tuition and fees paid after December 31, 2002, the maximum credit per return is $2,000. The credit is phased out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $80,000 and $100,000 ($40,000 and $50,000 for singles) (indexed beginning in 2002). The credit applies to both undergraduate and graduate students. 73. Deduction for higher education expenses.— EGTRRA provides a new above-the-line deduction for qualified higher education expenses. The maximum annual deduction is $3,000 beginning in 2002 for taxpayers with adjusted gross income up to $130,000 on a joint return ($65,000 for singles). The maximum deduction increases to $4,000 in 2004. Taxpayers with adjusted gross income up to $160,000 on a joint return ($80,000 for singles) may deduct up to $2,000 beginning in 2004. No deduction is allowed for expenses paid after December 31, 2005. 74. Education Individual Retirement Accounts.— Contributions to an education IRA are not tax-deductible. Investment income earned by education IRAs is not taxed when earned, and investment income from an education IRA is tax-exempt when withdrawn to pay for a student’s tuition and fees. The maximum contribution to an education IRA in 2001 is $500 per beneficiary. In 2001, the maximum contribution is phased down ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $150,000 and $160,000 ($95,000 and $110,000 for singles). EGTRRA increases the maximum contribution to $2,000 and the phase-out range for joint filers to $190,000 through $220,000 of modified AGI, double the range of singles. EGTRRA also allows elementary and secondary school expenses to be paid tax-free from such accounts. 6. TAX EXPENDITURES 75. Student-loan interest.—Taxpayers may claim an above-the-line deduction of up to $2,500 on interest paid on an education loan. Interest may only be deducted for the first five years in which interest payments are required. In 2001, the maximum deduction is phased down ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI between $60,000 and $75,000 ($40,000 and $55,000 for singles). EGTRRA increased the income thresholds for the phase down to $100,000 and $130,000 ($50,000 and $65,000 for singles) (indexed) and repealed the five year rule for interest payments made after December 21, 2001. 76. State prepaid tuition plans.—Some States have adopted prepaid tuition plans and prepaid room and board plans, which allow persons to pay in advance for college expenses for designated beneficiaries. In 2001 taxes on the earnings from these plans are paid by the beneficiaries and are deferred until tuition is actually paid. Beginning in 2002, investment income is not taxed when earned, and is tax-exempt when withdrawn to pay for qualified expenses. These changes were the result of EGTRRA. 77. Student-loan bonds.—Interest earned on State and local bonds issued to finance student loans is taxexempt. The volume of all such private activity bonds that each State may issue annually is limited. 78. Bonds for private nonprofit educational institutions.—Interest earned on State and local government bonds issued to finance the construction of facilities used by private nonprofit educational institutions is not taxed. 79. Credit for holders of zone academy bonds.— Financial institutions that own zone academy bonds receive a non-refundable tax credit (at a rate set by the Treasury Department) rather than interest. The credit is included in gross income. Proceeds from zone academy bonds may only be used to renovate, but not construct, qualifying schools and for certain other school purposes. The total amount of zone academy bonds that may be issued is limited to $1.6 billion— $400 million in each year from 1998 to 2001. 80. U.S. savings bonds for education.—Interest earned on U.S. savings bonds issued after December 31, 1989 is tax-exempt if the bonds are transferred to an educational institution to pay for educational expenses. The tax exemption is phased out for taxpayers with AGI between $83,650 and $113,650 ($55,750 and $70,750 for singles) in 2001. 81. Dependent students age 19 or older.—Taxpayers may claim personal exemptions for dependent children age 19 or over who (1) receive parental support payments of $1,000 or more per year, (2) are full-time students, and (3) do not claim a personal exemption on their own tax returns. 82. Charitable contributions to educational institutions.—Taxpayers may deduct contributions to nonprofit educational institutions. Taxpayers who donate capital assets to educational institutions can deduct the assets’ current value without being taxed on any appreciation in value. An individual’s total chari- 123 table contribution generally may not exceed 50 percent of adjusted gross income; a corporation’s total charitable contributions generally may not exceed 10 percent of pre-tax income. 83. Employer-provided educational assistance.— Employer-provided educational assistance is excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer’s costs for this assistance are a deductible business expense. EGTRRA permanently extended this exclusion and extended the exclusion to also include graduate education (beginning in 2002). 84. Work opportunity tax credit.—Employers can claim a tax credit for qualified wages paid to individuals who begin work on or before December 31, 2001 and who are certified as members of various targeted groups. The amount of the credit that can be claimed is 25 percent for employment of less than 400 hours and 40 percent for employment of 400 hours or more. The maximum credit per employee is $2,400 and can only be claimed on the first year of wages an individual earns from an employer. Employers must reduce their deduction for wages paid by the amount of the credit claimed. 85. Welfare-to-work tax credit.—An employer is eligible for a tax credit on the first $20,000 of eligible wages paid to qualified long-term family assistance recipients during the first two years of employment. The credit is 35 percent of the first $10,000 of wages in the first year of employment and 50 percent of the first $10,000 of wages in the second year of employment. The maximum credit is $8,500 per employee. The credit applies to wages paid to employees who are hired on or before December 31, 2001. 86. Employer-provided child care exclusion.— Employer-provided child care is excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer’s costs for the child care are a deductible business expense. 87. Employer-provided child care credit.—Employers can deduct expenses for supporting child care or child care resource and referral services. EGTRRA provides a tax credit to employers for qualified expenses beginning in 2002. The credit is equal to 25 percent of qualified expenses for employee child care and 10 percent of qualified expenses for child care resource and referral services. Employer deductions for such expenses are reduced by the amount of the credit. The maximum total credit is limited to $150,000 per taxable year. 88. Assistance for adopted foster children.—Taxpayers who adopt eligible children from the public foster care system can receive monthly payments for the children’s significant and varied needs and a reimbursement of up to $2,000 for nonrecurring adoption expenses. These payments are excluded from gross income. 89. Adoption credit and exclusion.—Taxpayers can receive a nonrefundable tax credit for qualified adoption expenses. The maximum credit is $5,000 per child ($6,000 for special needs adoptions) for 2001. The credit is phased-out ratably for taxpayers with modified AGI 124 between $75,000 and $115,000 in 2001. EGTRRA increased the maximum credit for non-special needs children to $10,000, set a flat credit amount of $10,000 for special needs children, and increased the start point of the phase-out to $150,000 beginning in 2002. The credit amounts and the phase-out thresholds are indexed for inflation beginning in 2003. Unused credits may be carried forward and used during the five subsequent years. Taxpayers may also exclude qualified adoption expenses from income, subject to the same maximum amounts and phase-out as the credit. The same expenses cannot qualify for tax benefits under both programs; however, a taxpayer may use the benefits of the exclusion and the tax credit for different expenses. Stepchild adoptions are not eligible for either benefit. Both the credit and the exclusion were made permanent by EGTRRA. 90. Employer-provided meals and lodging.—Employer-provided meals and lodging are excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer’s costs for these items are a deductible business expense. 91. Child credit.—Taxpayers with children under age 17 can qualify for a $600 refundable per child credit. The maximum credit is increased to $700 in 2005, $800 in 2009, and $1,000 in 2010. The credit is phased out for taxpayers at the rate of $50 per $1,000 of modified AGI above $110,000 ($75,000 for singles). 92. Child and dependent care expenses.—Married couples with child and dependent care expenses may claim a tax credit when one spouse works full time and the other works at least part time or goes to school. The credit may also be claimed by single parents and by divorced or separated parents who have custody of children. Expenditures up to a maximum $2,400 for one dependent and $4,800 for two or more dependents are eligible for the credit. EGTRRA increased the maximum expenditure limit to $3,000 for one dependent and $6,000 for two or more dependents beginning in 2003. The credit is equal to 30 percent of qualified expenditures (35 percent beginning in 2003) for taxpayers with incomes of $10,000 or less ($15,000 or less beginning in 2003). The credit is reduced to a minimum of 20 percent by one percentage point for each $2,000 of income in excess of $10,000 ($15,000 beginning in 2003). 93. Disabled access expenditure credit.—Small businesses (less than $1 million in gross receipts or fewer than 31 full-time employees) can claim a 50-percent credit for expenditures in excess of $250 to remove access barriers for disabled persons. The credit is limited to $5,000. 94. Charitable contributions, other than education and health.—Taxpayers may deduct contributions to charitable, religious, and certain other nonprofit organizations. Taxpayers who donate capital assets to charitable organizations can deduct the assets’ current value without being taxed on any appreciation in value. An individual’s total charitable contribution generally may not exceed 50 percent of adjusted gross ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES income; a corporation’s total charitable contributions generally may not exceed 10 percent of pre-tax income. 95. Foster care payments.—Foster parents provide a home and care for children who are wards of the State, under contract with the State. Compensation received for this service is excluded from the gross incomes of foster parents; the expenses they incur are nondeductible. 96. Parsonage allowances.—The value of a minister’s housing allowance and the rental value of parsonages are not included in a minister’s taxable income. Health 97. Employer-paid medical insurance and expenses.—Employer-paid health insurance premiums and other medical expenses (including long-term care) are deducted as a business expense by employers, but they are not included in employee gross income. The self-employed also may deduct part of their family health insurance premiums. 98. Self-employed medical insurance premiums.—Self-employed taxpayers may deduct a percentage of their family health insurance premiums. Taxpayers without self-employment income are not eligible for the special percentage deduction. The deductible percentage is 60 percent in 2001, 70 percent in 2002, and 100 percent in 2003 and thereafter. 99. Workers compensation insurance premiums.—Workers compensation insurance premiums are paid by employers and deducted as a business expense, but the premiums are not included in employee gross income. 100. Medical savings accounts.—Some employees may deduct annual contributions to a medical savings account (MSA); employer contributions to MSAs (except those made through cafeteria plans) for qualified employees are also excluded from income. An employee may contribute to an MSA in a given year only if the employer does not contribute to the MSA in that year. MSAs are only available to self-employed individuals or employees covered under an employer-sponsored high deductible health plan of a small employer. The maximum annual MSA contribution is 75 percent of the deductible under the high deductible plan for family coverage (65 percent for individual coverage). Earnings from MSAs are excluded from taxable income. Distributions from an MSA for medical expenses are not taxable. The number of taxpayers who may benefit annually from MSAs is generally limited to 750,000. No new MSAs may be established after December 31, 2002. The Community Renewal Tax Relief Act of 2000 extended the expiration date from December 31, 2000 to December 31, 2002. 101. Medical care expenses.—Personal expenditures for medical care (including the costs of prescription drugs) exceeding 7.5 percent of the taxpayer’s adjusted gross income are deductible. 102. Hospital construction bonds.—Interest earned on State and local government debt issued to finance 6. TAX EXPENDITURES hospital construction is excluded from income subject to tax. 103. Charitable contributions to health institutions.—Individuals and corporations may deduct contributions to nonprofit health institutions. Tax expenditures resulting from the deductibility of contributions to other charitable institutions are listed under the education, training, employment, and social services function. 104. Orphan drugs.—Drug firms can claim a tax credit of 50 percent of the costs for clinical testing required by the Food and Drug Administration for drugs that treat rare physical conditions or rare diseases. 105. Blue Cross and Blue Shield.—Blue Cross and Blue Shield health insurance providers in existence on August 16, 1986 and certain other nonprofit health insurers are provided exceptions from otherwise applicable insurance company income tax accounting rules that substantially reduce (or even eliminate) their tax liabilities. Income Security 106. Railroad retirement benefits.—Railroad retirement benefits are not generally subject to the income tax unless the recipient’s gross income reaches a certain threshold. The threshold is discussed more fully under the Social Security function. 107. Workers’ compensation benefits.—Workers compensation provides payments to disabled workers. These benefits, although income to the recipients, are not subject to the income tax. 108. Public assistance benefits.—Public assistance benefits are excluded from tax. The normal tax method considers cash transfers from the government as taxable and, thus, treats the exclusion for public assistance benefits as a tax expenditure. 109. Special benefits for disabled coal miners.— Disability payments to former coal miners out of the Black Lung Trust Fund, although income to the recipient, are not subject to the income tax. 110. Military disability pensions.—Most of the military pension income received by current disabled retired veterans is excluded from their income subject to tax. 111. Employer-provided pension contributions and earnings.—Certain employer contributions to pension plans are excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer can deduct the contributions. In addition, the tax on the investment income earned by the pension plans is deferred until the money is withdrawn. 112. 401(k) plans.—Individual taxpayers can make tax-preferred contributions to certain types of employerprovided 401(k) plans (and 401(k)-type plans like 403(b) plans and the Federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan). In 2001, an employee could exclude up to $10,500 (indexed) of wages from AGI under a qualified arrangement with an employer’s 401(k) plan. EGTRRA increases the exclusion amount to $11,000 in 2002, $12,000 in 2003, $13,000 in 2004, $14,000 in 2005 and 125 $15,000 in 2006 (indexed thereafter). The tax on the investment income earned by 401(k)-type plans is deferred until withdrawn. EGTRRA also allows employees to make after-tax contributions to 401(k) and 401(k)-type plans beginning in 2002. These contributions are not excluded from AGI, but the investment income of such after-tax contributions is not taxed when earned or withdrawn. 113. Individual Retirement Accounts.—Individual taxpayers can take advantage of several different Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs): deductible IRAs, non-deductible IRAs, and Roth IRAs. In 2001, employees can make annual contributions to an IRA up to $2,000 (or 100 percent of compensation, if less). The annual contributions limit applies to the total of a taxpayer’s deductible, non-deductible, and Roth IRAs contributions. EGTRRA increases the IRA contribution limit to $3,000 in 2002, $4,000 in 2005, and $5,000 in 2008 (indexed thereafter) and allows taxpayers over age 50 to make additional ‘‘catch-up’’ contributions of $1,000 (by 2006). Taxpayers whose AGI is below $53,000 ($33,000 for non-joint filers) in 2001 can claim a deduction for IRA contributions. In 2001, the IRA deduction is phased out for taxpayers with AGI between $53,000 and $63,000 ($33,000 and $43,000 for non-joint). The phaseout range increases annually until it reaches $80,000 to $100,000 in 2007 ($50,000 to $60,000 in 2005 for non-joint filers). Taxpayers whose AGI is above the phase-out range can also claim a deduction for their IRA contributions depending on whether they (or their spouse) are an active participant in an employer-provided retirement plan. The tax on the investment income earned by 401(k) plans, non-deductible IRAs, and deductible IRAs is deferred until the money is withdrawn. Taxpayers with incomes below $150,000 ($90,000 for nonjoint filers) can make contributions to Roth IRAs. The maximum contribution to a Roth IRA is phased out for taxpayers with AGI between $150,000 and $160,000 ($95,000 and $110,000 for singles). Investment income of a Roth IRA is not taxed when earned nor when withdrawn. Withdrawals from a Roth IRA are penalty free if: (1) the Roth IRA was opened at least 5 years before the withdrawal, and (2) the taxpayer either (a) is at least 59–1/2, (b) dies, (c) is disabled, or (d) purchases a first-time house. Taxpayers can contribute to a non-deductible IRA regardless of their income and whether they are an active participant in an employer-provided retirement plan. The tax on investment income earned by non-deductible IRAs is deferred until the money is withdrawn. 114. Low and moderate income savers’ credit.— EGTRRA provides an additional incentive for lowerincome taxpayers to save through a nonrefundable credit of up to 50 percent on IRA contributions. This credit is in addition to any deduction or exclusion. The credit is completely phased out by $50,000 for joint filers and $25,000 for single filers. This temporary credit is in effect from 2002 through 2006. 126 115. Keogh plans.—Self-employed individuals can make deductible contributions to their own retirement (Keogh) plans equal to 25 percent of their income, up to a maximum of $35,000 in 2001. Total plan contributions are limited to 15 percent of a firm’s total wages. EGTRRA increases the percent of pay limit to 100 percent of the income of the self-employed by 2005 and increases the dollar limit on contributions to $40,000 beginning in 2002. EGTRRA also increased the plan limit to 25 percent of a firm’s total wages and excluded employee contributions from this limit beginning in 2002. The tax on the investment income earned by Keogh plans is deferred until withdrawn. 116. Employer-provided life insurance benefits.— Employer-provided life insurance benefits are excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer’s costs for the insurance are a deductible business expense. 117. Small business retirement plan credit.— EGTRRA provides businesses with 100 or fewer employees a credit for 50 percent of the qualified startup costs associated with a new qualified retirement plan. The credit is limited to $500 annually and may only be claimed for expenses incurred during the first three years from the start of the qualified plan. Qualified startup expenses include expenses related to the establishment and administration of the plan, and the retirement-related education of employees. The credit applies to costs incurred beginning in 2002. 118. Employer-provided accident and disability benefits.—Employer-provided accident and disability benefits are excluded from an employee’s gross income even though the employer’s costs for the benefits are a deductible business expense. 119. Employer-provided supplementary unemployment benefits.—Employers may establish trusts to pay supplemental unemployment benefits to employees separated from employment. Interest payments to such trusts are exempt from taxation. 120. Employer Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) provisions.—ESOPs are a special type of tax-exempt employee benefit plan. Employer-paid contributions (the value of stock issued to the ESOP) are deductible by the employer as part of employee compensation costs. They are not included in the employees’ gross income for tax purposes, however, until they are paid out as benefits. The following special income tax provisions for ESOPs are intended to increase ownership of corporations by their employees: (1) annual employer contributions are subject to less restrictive limitations; (2) ESOPs may borrow to purchase employer stock, guaranteed by their agreement with the employer that the debt will be serviced by his payment (deductible by him) of a portion of wages (excludable by the employees) to service the loan; (3) employees who sell appreciated company stock to the ESOP may defer any taxes due until they withdraw benefits; and (4) dividends paid to ESOP-held stock are deductible by the employer. ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES 121. Additional deduction for the blind.—Taxpayers who are blind may take an additional $1,100 standard deduction if single, or $900 if married. 122. Additional deduction for the elderly.—Taxpayers who are 65 years or older may take an additional $1,100 standard deduction if single, or $900 if married. 123. Tax credit for the elderly and disabled.— Individuals who are 65 years of age or older, or who are permanently disabled, can take a tax credit equal to 15 percent of the sum of their earned and retirement income. Income is limited to no more than $5,000 for single individuals or married couples filing a joint return where only one spouse is 65 years of age or older, and up to $7,500 for joint returns where both spouses are 65 years of age or older. These limits are reduced by one-half of the taxpayer’s adjusted gross income over $7,500 for single individuals and $10,000 for married couples filing a joint return. 124. Casualty losses.—Neither the purchase of property nor insurance premiums to protect its value are deductible as costs of earning income; therefore, reimbursement for insured loss of such property is not reportable as a part of gross income. Taxpayers, however, may deduct uninsured casualty and theft losses of more than $100 each, but only to the extent that total losses during the year exceed 10 percent of AGI. 125. Earned income tax credit (EITC).—The EITC may be claimed by low income workers. For a family with one qualifying child, the credit is 34 percent of the first $7,140 of earned income in 2001. The credit is 40 percent of the first $10,020 of income for a family with two or more qualifying children. The credit is phased out beginning when the taxpayer’s income exceeds $13,090 at the rate of 15.98 percent (21.06 percent if two or more qualifying children are present). It is completely phased out when the taxpayer’s modified adjusted gross income reaches $28,281 ($32,121 if two or more qualifying children are present). The credit may also be claimed by workers who do not have children living with them. Qualifying workers must be at least age 25 and may not be claimed as a dependent on another taxpayer’s return. The credit is not available to workers age 65 or older. In 2001, the credit is 7.65 percent of the first $4,760 of earned income. When the taxpayer’s income exceeds $5,950, the credit is phased out at the rate of 7.65 percent. It is completely phased out at $10,710 of modified adjusted gross income. For workers with or without children, the income levels at which the credit begins to phase-out and the maximum amounts of income on which the credit can be taken are adjusted for inflation. For married taxpayers filing a joint return, EGTRRA increases the base amount for the phase-out by $1,000 in 2002 through 2004, $2,000 in 2005 through 2007, and $3,000 in 2008 (indexed thereafter). Earned income tax credits in excess of tax liabilities owed through the individual income tax system are refundable to individuals. This portion of the credit is shown as an outlay, while the 127 6. TAX EXPENDITURES amount that offsets tax liabilities is shown as a tax expenditure. Social Security 126. Social Security benefits for retired workers.—Social Security benefits that exceed the beneficiary’s contributions out of taxed income are deferred employee compensation and the deferral of tax on that compensation is a tax expenditure. These additional retirement benefits are paid for partly by employers’ contributions that were not included in employees’ taxable compensation. Portions (reaching as much as 85 percent) of recipients’ Social Security and Tier 1 Railroad Retirement benefits are included in the income tax base, however, if the recipient’s provisional income exceeds certain base amounts. Provisional income is equal to adjusted gross income plus foreign or U.S. possession income and tax-exempt interest, and one half of Social Security and tier 1 railroad retirement benefits. The tax expenditure is limited to the portion of the benefits received by taxpayers who are below the base amounts at which 85 percent of the benefits are taxable. 127. Social Security benefits for the disabled.— Benefit payments from the Social Security Trust Fund, for disability and for dependents and survivors, are excluded from a beneficiary’s gross incomes. 128. Social Security benefits for dependents and survivors.—Benefit payments from the Social Security Trust Fund for dependents and survivors are excluded from a beneficiary’s gross income. Veterans Benefits and Services 129. Veterans death benefits and disability compensation.—All compensation due to death or disability paid by the Veterans Administration is excluded from taxable income. 130. Veterans pension payments.—Pension payments made by the Veterans Administration are excluded from gross income. 131. G.I. Bill benefits.—G.I. Bill benefits paid by the Veterans Administration are excluded from gross income. 132. Tax-exempt mortgage bonds for veterans.— Interest earned on general obligation bonds issued by State and local governments to finance housing for veterans is excluded from taxable income. The issuance of such bonds is limited, however, to five pre-existing State programs and to amounts based upon previous volume levels for the period January 1, 1979 to June 22, 1984. Furthermore, future issues are limited to veterans who served on active duty before 1977. General Government 133. Public purpose State and local bonds.—Interest earned on State and local government bonds issued to finance public-purpose construction (e.g., schools, roads, sewers), equipment acquisition, and other public purposes is tax-exempt. Interest on bonds issued by Indian tribal governments for essential governmental purposes is also tax-exempt. 134. Deductibility of certain nonbusiness State and local taxes.—Taxpayers may deduct State and local income taxes and property taxes even though these taxes primarily pay for services that, if purchased directly by taxpayers, would not be deductible. 135. Business income earned in U.S. possessions.—U.S. corporations operating in a U.S. possession (e.g., Puerto Rico) can claim a credit against some or all of their U.S. tax liability on possession business income. The credit expires December 31, 2005. Interest 136. U.S. savings bonds.—Taxpayers may defer paying tax on interest earned on U.S. savings bonds until the bonds are redeemed. SPECIAL ANALYSES AND PRESENTATIONS 129 7. FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Investment spending is spending that yields longterm benefits. Its purpose may be to improve the efficiency of internal Federal agency operations or to increase the Nation’s overall stock of capital for economic growth. The spending can be direct Federal spending or grants to State and local governments. It can be for physical capital, which yields a stream of services over a period of years, or for research and development or education and training, which are intangible but also increase income in the future or provide other longterm benefits. Most presentations in the Federal budget combine investment spending with spending for current use. This chapter focuses solely on Federal and federally financed investment. An Administration proposal for capital acquisition funds that is being developed is dis- cussed in Chapter 1, ‘‘Budget and Performance Integration,’’ in this volume. In this chapter, investments are discussed in the following sections: • a description of the size and composition of Federal investment spending; • a presentation of trends in the stock of federally financed physical capital, research and development, and education; • alternative capital budget and capital expenditure presentations; and • projections of Federal physical capital outlays and recent assessments of public civilian capital needs, as required by the Federal Capital Investment Program Information Act of 1984. Part I: DESCRIPTION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT For more than fifty years, the Federal budget has included a chapter on Federal investment—defined as those outlays that yield long-term benefits—separately from outlays for current use. In recent years the discussion of the composition of investment includes estimates of budget authority as well as outlays and extends these estimates four years beyond the budget year, to 2007. The classification of spending between investment and current outlays is a matter of judgment. The budget has historically employed a relatively broad classification, encompassing physical investment, research, development, education, and training. The budget further classifies investments into those that are grants to State and local governments, such as grants for highways or education, and all other investments, called ‘‘direct Federal programs,’’ in this analysis. This ‘‘direct Federal’’ category consists primarily of spending for assets owned by the Federal Government, such as defense weapons systems and general purpose office buildings, but also includes grants to private organizations and individuals for investment, such as capital grants to Amtrak or higher education loans directly to individuals. Presentations for particular purposes could adopt different definitions of investment: • To suit the purposes of a traditional balance sheet, investment might include only those physical assets owned by the Federal Government, excluding capital financed through grants and intangible assets such as research and education. • Focusing on the role of investment in improving national productivity and enhancing economic growth would exclude items such as national de- fense assets, the direct benefits of which enhance national security rather than economic growth. • Concern with the efficiency of Federal operations would confine the coverage to investments that reduce costs or improve the effectiveness of internal Federal agency operations, such as computer systems. • A ‘‘social investment’’ perspective might broaden the coverage of investment beyond what is included in this chapter to include programs such as childhood immunization, maternal health, certain nutrition programs, and substance abuse treatment, which are designed in part to prevent more costly health problems in future years. The relatively broad definition of investment used in this section provides consistency over time—historical figures on investment outlays back to 1940 can be found in the separate Historical Tables volume. The detailed tables at the end of this section allow disaggregation of the data to focus on those investment outlays that best suit a particular purpose. In addition to this basic issue of definition, there are two technical problems in the classification of investment data, involving the treatment of grants to State and local governments and the classification of spending that could be shown in more than one category. First, for some grants to State and local governments it is the recipient jurisdiction, not the Federal Government, that ultimately determines whether the money is used to finance investment or current purposes. This analysis classifies all of the outlays in the category where the recipient jurisdictions are expected to spend most of the money. Hence, the community development 131 132 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES block grants are classified as physical investment, although some may be spent for current purposes. General purpose fiscal assistance is classified as current spending, although some may be spent by recipient jurisdictions on physical investment. Second, some spending could be classified in more than one category of investment. For example, outlays for construction of research facilities finance the acquisition of physical assets, but they also contribute to research and development. To avoid double counting, the outlays are classified in the category that is most commonly recognized as investment. Consequently outlays for the conduct of research and development do not include outlays for research facilities, because these outlays are included in the category for physical investment. Similarly, physical investment and research and development related to education and training are included in the categories of physical assets and the conduct of research and development. When direct loans and loan guarantees are used to fund investment, the subsidy value is included as investment. The subsidies are classified according to their program purpose, such as construction or education and training. For more information about the treatment of Federal credit programs, refer to Chapter 25, ‘‘Budget System and Concepts and Glossary.’’ This section presents spending for gross investment, without adjusting for depreciation. A subsequent section discusses depreciation, shows investment both gross and net of depreciation, and displays net capital stocks. Composition of Federal Investment Outlays Major Federal Investment The composition of major Federal investment outlays is summarized in Table 7–1. They include major public physical investment, the conduct of research and development, and the conduct of education and training. Defense and nondefense investment outlays were $292.6 billion in 2001. They are estimated to increase to $324.6 billion in 2002 and are projected to increase further to $342.6 billion in 2003. Major Federal investment outlays will comprise an estimated 16.1 percent of total Federal outlays in 2003 and 3.1 percent of the Nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). Greater detail on Federal investment is available in Tables 7–2 and 7–3 at the end of this Part. Those tables include both budget authority and outlays. Physical investment.—Outlays for major public physical capital investment (hereafter referred to as physical investment outlays) are estimated to be $159.6 billion in 2003. Physical investment outlays are for construction and rehabilitation, the purchase of major equipment, and the purchase or sale of land and structures. More than three-fifths of these outlays are for direct physical investment by the Federal Government, with the remainder being grants to State and local governments for physical investment. Direct physical investment outlays by the Federal Government are primarily for national defense. Defense outlays for physical investment are estimated to increase from $69.1 billion in 2002 to $72.6 billion in 2003. Almost all of these outlays, or an estimated $63.7 billion in 2003, are for the procurement of weapons and other defense equipment, and the remainder is primarily for construction on military bases, family housing for military personnel, and Department of Energy defense facilities. Outlays for direct physical investment for nondefense purposes are estimated to be $29.8 billion in 2003. These outlays include $17.7 billion for construction and rehabilitation. This amount includes funds for water, power, and natural resources projects of the Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation within the De- partment of the Interior, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the power administrations in the Department of Energy; construction and rehabilitation of veterans hospitals and Postal Service facilities; facilities for space and science programs, and Indian Health Service hospitals and clinics. Outlays for the acquisition of major equipment are estimated to be $11.7 billion in 2003. The largest amounts are for the air traffic control system. For the purchase or sale of land and structures, disbursements are estimated to exceed collections by $0.4 billion in 2003. These purchases are largely for buildings and land for parks and other recreation purposes. Grants to State and local governments for physical investment are estimated to be $57.2 billion in 2003. Almost two-thirds of these outlays, or $37.4 billion, are to assist States and localities with transportation infrastructure, primarily highways. Other major grants for physical investment fund sewage treatment plants, community development, and public housing. Conduct of research and development.—Outlays for the conduct of research and development are devoted to increasing basic scientific knowledge and promoting research and development. They increase the Nation’s security, improve the productivity of capital and labor for both public and private purposes, and enhance the quality of life. More than half of these outlays are for national defense. Physical investment for research and development facilities and equipment is included in the physical investment category. Nondefense outlays for the conduct of research and development are largely for the space programs, the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and research for nuclear and non-nuclear energy programs. A more complete and detailed discussion of research and development funding appears in Chapter 8, ‘‘Research and Development Funding,’’ in this volume. Conduct of education and training.—Outlays for the conduct of education and training are estimated to be $76.1 billion in 2003. These outlays add to the stock 7. 133 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–1. COMPOSITION OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT OUTLAYS (In billions of dollars) 2001 Actual Estimate 2002 2003 Federal Investment Major public physical capital investment: Direct Federal: National defense ................................................................................................... Nondefense .......................................................................................................... 63.7 27.8 69.1 31.5 72.6 29.8 Subtotal, direct major public physical capital investment .................................... Grants to State and local governments ............................................................... 91.4 53.4 100.6 56.8 102.4 57.2 Subtotal, major public physical capital investment .............................................. Conduct of research and development: National defense .................................................................................................. Nondefense .......................................................................................................... 144.8 157.4 159.6 48.4 38.0 54.3 42.9 59.9 47.0 Subtotal, conduct of research and development ................................................. 86.4 97.3 106.9 34.8 26.5 40.2 29.6 45.5 30.5 Subtotal, conduct of education and training ........................................................ 61.3 69.9 76.1 Total, major Federal investment outlays .................................................................. 292.6 324.6 342.6 MEMORANDUM Major Federal investment outlays: National defense .................................................................................................. Nondefense .......................................................................................................... 112.1 180.4 123.5 201.1 132.6 210.0 Total, major Federal investment outlays ..................................................................... Miscellaneous physical investments: Commodity inventories ........................................................................................ Other physical investment (direct) ...................................................................... 292.6 324.6 342.6 1.5 3.8 0.4 4.3 * 4.5 Total, miscellaneous physical investment ................................................................... 5.4 4.7 4.5 297.9 329.3 347.1 Conduct of education and training: Grants to State and local governments ............................................................. Direct Federal ...................................................................................................... Total, Federal investment outlays, including miscellaneous physical investment ....... * Indicates $50 million or less. of human capital by developing a more skilled and productive labor force. Grants to State and local governments for this category are estimated to be $45.5 billion in 2003, almost three-fifths of the total. They include education programs for the disadvantaged and the handicapped, vocational and adult education programs, training programs in the Department of Labor, and Head Start. Direct Federal education and training outlays are estimated to be $30.5 billion in 2003. Programs in this category are primarily aid for higher education through student financial assistance, loan subsidies, the veterans GI bill, and health training programs. This category does not include outlays for education and training of Federal civilian and military employees. Outlays for education and training that are for physical investment and for research and development are in the categories for physical investment and the conduct of research and development. Miscellaneous Physical Investment Outlays In addition to the categories of major Federal investment, several miscellaneous categories of investment outlays are shown at the bottom of Table 7–1. These items, all for physical investment, are generally unrelated to improving Government operations or enhancing economic activity. Outlays for commodity inventories are for the purchase or sale of agricultural products pursuant to farm price support programs and the purchase and sale of other commodities such as oil and gas. Purchases are estimated to exceed sales by $28 million in 2003. Outlays for other miscellaneous physical investment are estimated to be $4.5 billion in 2003. This category includes primarily conservation programs. These are entirely direct Federal outlays. 134 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Detailed Tables on Investment Spending This section provides data on budget authority as well as outlays for major Federal investment. These estimates extend four years beyond the budget year to 2007. Table 7–2 displays budget authority (BA) and outlays (O) by major programs according to defense and nondefense categories. The greatest level of detail appears in Table 7–3, which shows budget authority and outlays divided according to grants to State and local governments and direct Federal spending. Miscellaneous investment is not included in these tables because it is generally unrelated to improving Government operations or enhancing economic activity. 7. 135 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–2. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: DEFENSE AND NONDEFENSE PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Description NATIONAL DEFENSE Major public physical investment: Construction and rehabilitation .................................................................... Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BA O Acquisition of major equipment ................................................................... BA O Purchase or sale of land and structures .................................................... BA O 8,163 7,452 63,789 56,237 –14 –21 10,082 8,218 63,103 60,907 –4 –9 8,416 8,947 70,414 63,708 –14 –12 9,503 8,815 76,277 66,824 –31 –31 10,740 8,592 80,747 76,580 –31 –31 15,232 9,558 88,476 83,331 –31 –31 18,216 11,939 100,533 89,141 –31 –31 Subtotal, major public physical investment ............................................ BA O 71,938 63,668 73,181 69,116 78,816 72,643 85,749 75,608 91,456 85,141 103,677 92,858 118,718 101,049 Conduct of research and development ........................................................... BA O Conduct of education and training (civilian) .................................................... BA O 49,713 48,444 7 7 57,855 54,346 8 8 62,983 59,939 8 8 66,227 61,467 8 8 69,954 65,453 8 8 68,279 66,931 8 8 67,427 66,825 8 8 BA O 121,658 112,119 131,044 123,470 141,807 132,590 151,984 137,083 161,418 150,602 171,964 159,797 186,153 167,882 BA O Mass transportation ................................................................................. BA O Rail transportation .................................................................................... BA O Air transportation ..................................................................................... BA O Community development block grants .................................................... BA O Other community and regional development .......................................... BA O Pollution control and abatement ............................................................. BA O Water resources ...................................................................................... BA O Housing assistance .................................................................................. BA O Energy ...................................................................................................... BA O Veterans hospitals and other health ....................................................... BA O Postal Service .......................................................................................... BA O GSA real property activities .................................................................... BA O Other programs ........................................................................................ BA O 34,564 27,207 7,210 6,760 53 15 2,611 2,024 5,112 4,939 2,424 1,684 4,307 4,214 5,084 4,542 7,319 7,220 1,426 1,436 1,398 1,297 327 1,039 1,184 959 10,355 6,258 35,136 28,843 6,576 6,222 21 20 3,193 2,816 7,000 5,235 1,775 1,909 4,144 3,902 4,415 4,634 7,273 7,644 1,990 1,981 1,866 1,684 851 612 1,545 1,325 8,164 8,240 30,716 27,808 6,915 6,330 21 53 3,432 3,298 4,732 5,878 1,685 1,933 3,804 4,130 3,902 4,284 7,092 7,706 1,271 1,272 1,991 1,686 1,331 1,039 1,543 1,298 6,032 6,937 26,336 24,880 7,059 6,425 21 43 3,490 3,433 4,831 6,526 1,722 1,790 3,883 4,255 3,970 4,042 7,241 8,093 1,357 1,359 2,029 1,802 983 1,080 1,575 1,336 6,069 6,831 31,775 24,054 7,218 6,457 22 22 3,553 3,528 4,938 5,472 1,758 1,783 3,970 4,244 4,338 4,188 7,402 8,124 1,760 1,762 2,072 1,876 1,114 1,070 1,610 1,388 6,210 6,609 32,365 24,271 7,386 6,408 22 24 3,620 3,640 5,053 4,950 1,800 1,729 3,160 4,222 4,201 4,314 7,575 8,614 1,385 1,386 2,120 1,922 1,048 1,103 1,648 1,420 6,352 6,562 32,966 24,662 7,559 7,106 23 22 3,689 3,718 5,171 5,014 1,843 1,787 3,234 4,142 4,293 4,315 7,751 7,672 1,316 1,318 2,170 1,969 1,532 1,267 1,687 1,449 6,493 6,662 BA O 83,374 69,594 83,949 75,067 74,467 73,652 70,566 71,895 77,740 70,577 77,735 70,565 79,727 71,103 Acquisition of major equipment: Air transportation ..................................................................................... BA O Postal Service .......................................................................................... BA O Other ........................................................................................................ BA O 2,634 2,327 299 675 6,683 6,929 3,123 2,516 493 694 7,997 8,304 3,034 2,766 900 612 8,323 8,392 3,097 2,895 994 787 8,443 8,592 3,166 2,961 675 796 8,610 8,808 3,239 3,156 675 736 8,801 9,058 3,315 3,229 1,123 839 9,002 9,268 Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment ........................................... BA O 9,616 9,931 11,613 11,514 12,257 11,770 12,534 12,274 12,451 12,565 12,715 12,950 13,440 13,336 Purchase or sale of land and structures .................................................... BA O 747 704 589 614 219 377 532 627 220 290 555 612 571 621 Subtotal, national defense investment .................................................... NONDEFENSE Major public physical investment: Construction and rehabilitation: Highways .................................................................................................. Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation ............................................. 136 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–2. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: DEFENSE AND NONDEFENSE PROGRAMS—Continued (in millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Description Other physical assets (grants) ..................................................................... Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BA O 1,332 939 1,321 1,087 1,257 1,114 1,330 1,182 1,388 1,260 1,422 1,346 1,470 1,396 Subtotal, major public physical investment ............................................ BA O 95,069 81,168 97,472 88,282 88,200 86,913 84,962 85,978 91,799 84,692 92,427 85,473 95,208 86,456 11,898 10,913 1,445 1,336 1,679 1,420 22,114 18,852 2,122 1,749 4,061 3,683 12,046 11,453 1,685 1,635 1,706 1,208 25,104 22,488 2,183 1,897 4,243 4,253 13,155 12,418 1,533 1,596 1,456 1,603 28,625 25,207 2,087 1,888 4,029 4,297 13,966 13,276 1,674 1,637 1,401 1,531 29,139 27,976 2,129 1,860 4,103 4,458 14,275 13,924 1,724 1,682 1,474 1,511 29,789 29,342 2,174 1,887 4,175 4,512 14,608 14,231 1,790 1,747 1,507 1,539 30,480 29,994 2,225 1,933 4,264 4,639 14,954 14,589 1,827 1,777 1,541 1,570 31,155 30,716 2,278 1,960 4,355 4,748 BA O 43,319 37,953 46,967 42,934 50,885 47,009 52,412 50,738 53,611 52,858 54,874 54,083 56,110 55,360 Conduct of education and training: Education, training, employment and social services: Elementary, secondary, and vocational education ................................. BA O Higher education ...................................................................................... BA O Research and general education aids .................................................... BA O Training and employment ........................................................................ BA O Social services ......................................................................................... BA O 24,981 22,993 18,040 17,202 2,857 2,572 5,555 5,129 9,339 8,265 32,986 26,644 20,621 18,295 2,587 2,995 5,338 5,953 9,946 9,347 34,387 31,786 19,187 19,080 2,552 2,680 4,800 5,804 10,057 9,866 35,104 34,065 18,743 18,264 2,605 2,598 4,907 5,425 10,271 10,133 35,888 35,019 19,254 18,563 2,643 2,608 5,018 4,973 10,501 10,395 36,725 35,778 19,775 19,042 2,698 2,664 5,136 4,989 10,746 10,618 37,588 36,607 20,301 19,560 2,753 2,713 5,257 5,107 10,999 10,859 Conduct of research and development: General science, space and technology ..................................................... BA O Energy .......................................................................................................... BA O Transportation ............................................................................................... BA O Health ........................................................................................................... BA O Natural resources and environment ............................................................ BA O All other research and development ........................................................... BA O Subtotal, conduct of research and development .................................... Subtotal, education, training, and social services .............................. BA O 60,772 56,161 71,478 63,234 70,983 69,216 71,630 70,485 73,304 71,558 75,080 73,091 76,898 74,846 Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation .......................................... BA O BA O BA O 2,635 2,221 1,408 1,161 2,180 1,773 2,804 2,893 1,563 1,399 2,312 2,340 2,939 3,255 1,257 1,340 2,246 2,250 3,427 3,443 1,280 1,309 2,221 2,311 3,592 3,627 1,309 1,358 2,285 2,372 3,764 3,759 1,339 1,394 2,348 2,412 3,923 3,898 1,370 1,418 2,412 2,470 BA O 66,995 61,316 78,157 69,866 77,425 76,061 78,558 77,548 80,490 78,915 82,531 80,656 84,603 82,632 Subtotal, nondefense investment ............................................................ BA O 205,383 180,437 222,596 201,082 216,510 209,983 215,932 214,264 225,900 216,465 229,832 220,212 235,921 224,448 327,041 292,556 353,640 324,552 358,317 342,573 367,916 351,347 387,318 367,067 401,796 380,009 422,074 392,330 Health ........................................................................................................... Other education and training ....................................................................... Subtotal, conduct of education and training ........................................... Total, Federal investment .............................................................................. BA O 7. 137 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–3. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS (in millions of dollars) Estimate 2001 Actual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 34,564 27,206 7,210 6,760 .................. 7 2,597 2,020 35,136 28,841 6,576 6,222 .................. 2 3,176 2,801 30,716 27,804 6,915 6,330 .................. .................. 3,404 3,273 26,336 24,879 7,059 6,425 .................. .................. 3,462 3,407 31,775 24,054 7,218 6,457 .................. .................. 3,524 3,502 32,365 24,271 7,386 6,408 .................. .................. 3,591 3,613 32,966 24,662 7,559 7,106 .................. .................. 3,659 3,689 BA O 44,371 35,993 44,888 37,866 41,035 37,407 36,857 34,711 42,517 34,013 43,342 34,292 44,184 35,457 BA O BA O BA O BA O BA O BA O BA O 2,851 2,720 82 67 5,112 4,939 1,921 1,320 7,285 7,198 1,213 11 913 165 2,898 2,651 36 66 7,000 5,235 1,304 1,530 7,238 7,618 48 506 204 185 2,581 2,891 41 75 4,732 5,878 1,227 1,499 7,057 7,673 45 329 203 201 2,635 2,922 42 59 4,831 6,526 1,254 1,405 7,205 8,060 46 342 207 213 2,694 2,919 43 58 4,938 5,472 1,280 1,316 7,365 8,091 47 343 210 216 1,853 2,875 44 48 5,053 4,950 1,311 1,262 7,538 8,580 48 347 215 220 1,897 2,742 45 49 5,171 5,014 1,342 1,303 7,713 7,637 49 355 219 226 Subtotal, other construction and rehabilitation ............................... BA O 19,377 16,420 18,728 17,791 15,886 18,546 16,220 19,527 16,577 18,415 16,062 18,282 16,436 17,326 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation ............................................. BA O 63,748 52,413 63,616 55,657 56,921 55,953 53,077 54,238 59,094 52,428 59,404 52,574 60,620 52,783 Other physical assets .................................................................................. BA O 1,417 990 1,417 1,158 1,318 1,209 1,393 1,237 1,451 1,316 1,487 1,407 1,537 1,453 BA O 65,165 53,403 65,033 56,815 58,239 57,162 54,470 55,475 60,545 53,744 60,891 53,981 62,157 54,236 BA O BA O 269 238 264 144 268 259 249 191 258 265 250 304 263 298 237 288 270 281 266 283 275 297 269 292 282 304 231 293 BA O 533 382 517 450 508 569 500 586 536 564 544 589 513 597 Conduct of education and training: Elementary, secondary, and vocational education ..................................... BA O Higher education .......................................................................................... BA O Research and general education aids ........................................................ BA O Training and employment ............................................................................ BA O Social services ............................................................................................. BA O Agriculture ..................................................................................................... BA O Other ............................................................................................................. BA 22,511 21,326 449 360 775 670 4,090 3,791 8,967 7,960 461 458 268 31,180 24,671 449 523 635 896 3,827 4,516 9,569 8,739 465 505 451 33,172 29,750 382 445 633 734 3,261 4,317 9,701 9,526 448 463 328 33,864 32,260 390 445 655 680 3,376 4,030 9,908 9,784 457 470 338 34,621 33,261 399 449 659 660 3,452 3,646 10,129 10,038 468 487 359 35,429 33,991 408 455 675 675 3,533 3,664 10,365 10,254 478 504 379 36,261 34,778 418 467 690 690 3,616 3,755 10,609 10,485 490 515 399 Description GRANTS TO STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Major public physical investments: Construction and rehabilitation: Transportation: Highways ............................................................................................. BA O Mass transportation ............................................................................. BA O Rail transportation ............................................................................... BA O Air transportation ................................................................................. BA O Subtotal, transportation ................................................................... Other construction and rehabilitation: Pollution control and abatement ............................................................. Other natural resources and environment .............................................. Community development block grants .................................................... Other community and regional development .......................................... Housing assistance .................................................................................. Department of Education ......................................................................... Other construction ................................................................................... Subtotal, major public physical investments ........................................... Conduct of research and development: Agriculture ..................................................................................................... Other ............................................................................................................. Subtotal, conduct of research and development .................................... 138 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–3. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS—Continued (in millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Description O Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 244 394 301 285 298 313 326 Subtotal, conduct of education and training ........................................... BA O 37,521 34,809 46,576 40,244 47,925 45,536 48,988 47,954 50,087 48,839 51,267 49,856 52,483 51,016 Subtotal, grants for investment ............................................................... BA O 103,219 88,594 112,126 97,509 106,672 103,267 103,958 104,015 111,168 103,147 112,702 104,426 115,153 105,849 BA O Atomic energy defense activities and other ....................................... BA O 7,672 6,875 491 577 9,330 7,525 752 693 7,753 8,292 663 655 8,827 8,136 676 679 10,050 7,900 690 692 14,528 8,852 704 706 17,497 11,217 719 722 BA O 8,163 7,452 10,082 8,218 8,416 8,947 9,503 8,815 10,740 8,592 15,232 9,558 18,216 11,939 BA O General science, space, and technology ........................................... BA O Water resources projects .................................................................... BA O Other natural resources and environment ......................................... BA O Energy .................................................................................................. BA O Postal Service ..................................................................................... BA O Transportation ...................................................................................... BA O Housing assistance ............................................................................. BA O Veterans hospitals and other health facilities .................................... BA O Federal Prison System ........................................................................ BA O GSA real property activities ................................................................ BA O Other construction ............................................................................... BA O 758 392 3,026 3,034 5,002 4,476 2,192 1,970 1,426 1,436 327 1,039 332 383 34 22 1,298 1,237 732 504 1,184 959 3,315 1,729 1,343 932 2,394 2,675 4,379 4,569 1,902 1,893 1,990 1,981 851 612 317 359 35 26 1,766 1,593 680 411 1,545 1,325 3,131 3,034 1,440 1,058 2,065 2,254 3,861 4,209 1,795 1,910 1,271 1,272 1,331 1,039 370 412 35 33 1,891 1,591 244 625 1,543 1,298 1,700 1,998 1,470 1,242 2,033 2,149 3,928 3,983 1,833 1,999 1,357 1,359 983 1,080 376 383 36 33 1,927 1,702 249 454 1,575 1,336 1,722 1,937 1,504 1,352 2,078 2,150 4,295 4,130 1,874 1,961 1,760 1,762 1,114 1,070 386 376 37 33 1,968 1,776 255 339 1,610 1,388 1,765 1,812 1,539 1,401 2,126 2,193 4,157 4,266 1,919 1,960 1,385 1,386 1,048 1,103 393 390 37 34 2,013 1,821 261 329 1,648 1,420 1,805 1,688 1,574 1,434 2,177 2,245 4,248 4,266 1,963 2,001 1,316 1,318 1,532 1,267 402 401 38 35 2,061 1,865 267 336 1,687 1,449 1,842 1,703 DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS Major public physical investment: Construction and rehabilitation: National defense: Military construction and family housing ............................................ Subtotal, national defense .............................................................. Nondefense: International affairs .............................................................................. Subtotal, nondefense ...................................................................... BA O 19,626 17,181 20,333 19,410 17,546 17,699 17,489 17,657 18,646 18,149 18,331 17,991 19,107 18,320 Subtotal, construction and rehabilitation ............................................. BA O 27,789 24,633 30,415 27,628 25,962 26,646 26,992 26,472 29,386 26,741 33,563 27,549 37,323 30,259 BA O BA O 63,679 56,131 110 106 62,994 60,802 109 105 70,305 63,600 109 108 76,166 66,708 111 116 80,634 76,460 113 120 88,360 83,208 116 123 100,415 89,016 118 125 BA O 63,789 56,237 63,103 60,907 70,414 63,708 76,277 66,824 80,747 76,580 88,476 83,331 100,533 89,141 BA O BA O BA 504 388 990 1,042 118 476 495 702 671 116 471 489 632 620 116 475 456 655 638 116 485 468 670 659 105 496 484 686 676 102 507 495 702 692 103 Acquisition of major equipment: National defense: Department of Defense ....................................................................... Atomic energy defense activities ........................................................ Subtotal, national defense .............................................................. Nondefense: General science and basic research .................................................. Space flight, research, and supporting activities ............................... Energy .................................................................................................. 7. 139 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–3. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS—Continued (in millions of dollars) Estimate 2001 Actual 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 118 299 675 2,634 2,327 271 441 520 553 .................. 80 653 960 502 409 1,340 1,197 410 552 1,290 1,138 116 493 694 3,123 2,516 482 472 621 854 .................. 64 606 782 1,020 917 1,859 2,021 562 562 1,457 1,279 116 900 612 3,034 2,766 547 460 521 571 .................. 47 610 915 1,255 1,098 1,904 1,827 656 656 1,550 1,498 116 994 787 3,097 2,895 558 487 532 562 .................. 49 623 937 1,280 1,183 1,933 1,859 668 668 1,540 1,582 105 675 796 3,166 2,961 571 526 544 544 .................. 52 637 955 1,306 1,211 1,976 1,943 679 679 1,574 1,610 102 675 736 3,239 3,156 584 556 556 556 .................. 56 653 979 1,333 1,233 2,024 2,000 691 691 1,611 1,664 103 1,123 839 3,315 3,229 598 578 570 570 .................. 59 668 1,002 1,362 1,259 2,072 2,046 704 704 1,649 1,703 BA O 9,531 9,880 11,517 11,443 12,196 11,675 12,471 12,219 12,388 12,509 12,650 12,889 13,373 13,279 Subtotal, acquisition of major equipment ........................................... BA O 73,320 66,117 74,620 72,350 82,610 75,383 88,748 79,043 93,135 89,089 101,126 96,220 113,906 102,420 BA O International affairs .................................................................................. BA O Privatization of Elk Hills ........................................................................... BA O Other ........................................................................................................ BA O –14 –21 27 88 .................. .................. 720 616 –4 –9 1 1 .................. .................. 588 613 –14 –12 3 1 .................. .................. 216 376 –31 –31 3 1 .................. .................. 529 626 –31 –31 3 1 –323 –323 540 612 –31 –31 3 1 .................. .................. 552 611 –31 –31 3 1 .................. .................. 568 620 Subtotal, purchase or sale of land and structures ............................ BA O 733 683 585 605 205 365 501 596 189 259 524 581 540 590 Subtotal, major public physical investment ............................................ BA O 101,842 91,433 105,620 100,583 108,777 102,394 116,241 106,111 122,710 116,089 135,213 124,350 151,769 133,269 BA O BA O 46,702 45,454 3,011 2,990 53,721 50,213 4,134 4,133 59,354 56,311 3,629 3,628 62,533 57,744 3,694 3,723 66,191 61,657 3,763 3,796 64,442 63,065 3,837 3,866 63,516 62,884 3,911 3,941 BA O 49,713 48,444 57,855 54,346 62,983 59,939 66,227 61,467 69,954 65,453 68,279 66,931 67,427 66,825 Description O Postal Service ..................................................................................... BA O Air transportation ................................................................................. BA O Water transportation (Coast Guard) ................................................... BA O Other transportation (railroads) ........................................................... BA O Social security ..................................................................................... BA O Hospital and medical care for veterans ............................................. BA O Department of Justice ......................................................................... BA O Department of the Treasury ................................................................ BA O GSA general supply fund .................................................................... BA O Other .................................................................................................... BA O Subtotal, nondefense ...................................................................... Purchase or sale of land and structures: National defense ...................................................................................... Conduct of research and development: National defense Defense military ....................................................................................... Atomic energy and other ......................................................................... Subtotal, national defense .................................................................. Nondefense: International affairs .................................................................................. BA O General science, space and technology: NASA ................................................................................................... BA O National Science Foundation .............................................................. BA O Department of Energy ......................................................................... BA O 252 215 268 214 182 186 186 246 190 269 195 284 199 296 6,432 6,060 3,075 2,566 2,391 2,287 6,339 6,085 3,285 2,943 2,422 2,425 7,228 6,847 3,441 3,085 2,486 2,486 7,953 7,546 3,475 3,200 2,538 2,530 8,130 7,966 3,550 3,375 2,595 2,583 8,320 8,193 3,633 3,396 2,655 2,642 8,517 8,406 3,719 3,479 2,718 2,704 Subtotal, general science, space and technology ......................... BA O 12,150 11,128 12,314 11,667 13,337 12,604 14,152 13,522 14,465 14,193 14,803 14,515 15,153 14,885 140 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–3. FEDERAL INVESTMENT BUDGET AUTHORITY AND OUTLAYS: GRANT AND DIRECT FEDERAL PROGRAMS—Continued (in millions of dollars) 2001 Actual Description Energy .......................................................................................................... Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BA O 1,445 1,336 1,685 1,635 1,533 1,596 1,674 1,637 1,724 1,682 1,790 1,747 1,827 1,777 Transportation: Department of Transportation ................................................................. BA O NASA ........................................................................................................ BA O 558 410 973 906 648 593 918 498 488 589 817 791 478 550 793 780 507 507 811 808 518 518 830 822 531 529 849 838 BA O 2,976 2,652 3,251 2,726 2,838 2,976 2,945 2,967 3,042 2,997 3,138 3,087 3,207 3,144 BA O BA O 20,993 17,905 1,043 929 23,860 21,257 1,159 1,195 27,504 24,051 1,033 1,110 27,992 26,809 1,053 1,102 28,613 28,246 1,078 1,022 29,279 28,870 1,101 1,042 29,964 29,570 1,130 1,068 BA O 22,036 18,834 25,019 22,452 28,537 25,161 29,045 27,911 29,691 29,268 30,380 29,912 31,094 30,638 BA O Natural resources and environment ............................................................ BA O National Institute of Standards and Technology ......................................... BA O Hospital and medical care for veterans ...................................................... BA O All other research and development ........................................................... BA O 1,389 1,281 2,122 1,749 374 408 746 857 993 662 1,437 1,384 2,183 1,897 421 416 794 943 1,031 999 1,445 1,393 2,087 1,888 366 443 844 994 923 981 1,472 1,470 2,129 1,860 374 400 862 1,018 933 1,004 1,489 1,501 2,174 1,887 382 380 880 1,042 952 1,026 1,524 1,562 2,225 1,933 392 381 901 1,067 967 1,037 1,558 1,600 2,278 1,960 401 385 923 1,093 983 1,058 Subtotal, nondefense .......................................................................... BA O 42,786 37,571 46,450 42,484 50,377 46,440 51,912 50,152 53,075 52,294 54,330 53,494 55,597 54,763 BA O 92,499 86,015 104,305 96,830 113,360 106,379 118,139 111,619 123,029 117,747 122,609 120,425 123,024 121,588 Conduct of education and training: Elementary, secondary, and vocational education ..................................... BA O Higher education .......................................................................................... BA O Research and general education aids ........................................................ BA O Training and employment ............................................................................ BA O Health ........................................................................................................... BA O Veterans education, training, and rehabilitation .......................................... BA O General science and basic research .......................................................... BA O National defense .......................................................................................... BA O International affairs ....................................................................................... BA O Other ............................................................................................................. BA O 2,470 1,667 17,591 16,842 2,082 1,902 1,465 1,338 1,390 1,143 2,635 2,221 802 575 7 7 369 311 670 508 1,806 1,973 20,172 17,772 1,952 2,099 1,511 1,437 1,549 1,385 2,804 2,893 928 905 8 8 248 285 611 873 1,215 2,036 18,805 18,635 1,919 1,946 1,539 1,487 1,243 1,326 2,939 3,255 952 927 8 8 258 291 630 622 1,240 1,805 18,353 17,819 1,950 1,918 1,531 1,395 1,266 1,295 3,427 3,443 892 943 8 8 263 284 648 692 1,267 1,758 18,855 18,114 1,984 1,948 1,566 1,327 1,294 1,344 3,592 3,627 912 928 8 8 269 290 664 740 1,296 1,787 19,367 18,587 2,023 1,989 1,603 1,325 1,324 1,380 3,764 3,759 933 926 8 8 276 274 678 773 1,327 1,829 19,883 19,093 2,063 2,023 1,641 1,352 1,355 1,404 3,923 3,898 955 943 8 8 282 280 691 794 Subtotal, transportation ................................................................... Health: National Institutes of Health ................................................................ All other health .................................................................................... Subtotal, health ............................................................................... Agriculture ..................................................................................................... Subtotal, conduct of research and development .................................... Subtotal, conduct of education and training ........................................... BA O 29,481 26,514 31,589 29,630 29,508 30,533 29,578 29,602 30,411 30,084 31,272 30,808 32,128 31,624 Subtotal, direct Federal investment ........................................................ BA O 223,822 203,962 241,514 227,043 251,645 239,306 263,958 247,332 276,150 263,920 289,094 275,583 306,921 286,481 Total, Federal investment .............................................................................. BA O 327,041 292,556 353,640 324,552 358,317 342,573 367,916 351,347 387,318 367,067 401,796 380,009 422,074 392,330 7. 141 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Part II: FEDERALLY FINANCED CAPITAL STOCKS Federal investment spending creates a ‘‘stock’’ of capital that is available in the future for productive use. Each year, Federal investment outlays add to the stock of capital. At the same time, however, wear and tear and obsolescence reduce it. This section presents very rough measures over time of three different kinds of capital stocks financed by the Federal Government: public physical capital, research and development (R&D), and education. Federal spending for physical assets adds to the Nation’s capital stock of tangible assets, such as roads, buildings, and aircraft carriers. These assets deliver a flow of services over their lifetime. The capital depreciates as the asset ages, wears out, is accidentally damaged, or becomes obsolete. Federal spending for the conduct of research, development, and education adds to an ‘‘intangible’’ asset, the Nation’s stock of knowledge. Although financed by the Federal Government, the research and development or education can be performed by Federal or State government laboratories, universities and other nonprofit organizations, or private industry. Research and development covers a wide range of activities, from the investigation of subatomic particles to the exploration of outer space; it can be ‘‘basic’’ research without particular applications in mind, or it can have a highly specific practical use. Similarly, education includes a wide variety of programs, assisting people of all ages beginning with pre-school education and extending through graduate studies and adult education. Like physical assets, the capital stocks of R&D and education provide services over a number of years and depreciate as they become outdated. For this analysis, physical and R&D capital stocks are estimated using the perpetual inventory method. In this method, the estimates are based on the sum of net investment in prior years. Each year’s Federal outlays are treated as gross investment, adding to the capital stock; depreciation reduces the capital stock. Gross investment less depreciation is net investment. A limitation of the perpetual inventory method is that investment spending may not accurately measure the value of the asset created. However, alternative methods for measuring asset value, such as direct surveys of current market worth or indirect estimation based on an expected rate of return, are especially difficult to apply to assets that do not have a private market, such as highways or weapons systems. In contrast to physical and R&D stocks, the estimate of the education stock is based on the replacement cost method. Data on the total years of education of the U.S. population are combined with data on the cost of education and the Federal share of education spending to yield the cost of replacing the Federal share of the Nation’s stock of education. Additional detail about the methods used to estimate capital stocks appears in a methodological note at the end of this section. It should be stressed that these estimates are rough approximations, and provide a basis only for making broad generalizations. Errors may arise from uncertainty about the useful lives and depreciation rates of different types of assets, incomplete data for historical outlays, and imprecision in the deflators used to express costs in constant dollars. The Stock of Physical Capital This section presents data on stocks of physical capital assets and estimates of the depreciation on these assets. Trends.—Table 7–4 shows the value of the net federally financed physical capital stock since 1960, in constant fiscal year 1996 dollars. The total stock grew at a 2.2 percent average annual rate from 1960 to 2001, with periods of faster growth during the late 1960s and the 1980s. The stock amounted to $1,965 billion in 2001 and is estimated to increase to $2,066 billion by 2003. In 2001, the national defense capital stock accounted for $635 billion, or 32 percent of the total, and nondefense stocks for $1,331 billion, or 68 percent of the total. 142 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–4. NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED PHYSICAL CAPITAL (In billions of 1996 dollars) Nondefense Fiscal Year Five year intervals: 1960 .................................................... 1965 .................................................... 1970 .................................................... 1975 .................................................... 1980 .................................................... 1985 .................................................... 1990 .................................................... Annual data: 1995 .................................................... 1996 .................................................... 1997 .................................................... 1998 .................................................... 1999 .................................................... 2000 .................................................... 2001 .................................................... 2002 est. ............................................. 2003 est. ............................................. Total National Defense Direct Federal Capital Total Nondefense Total Water and Power Capital Financed by Federal Grants Other Total Transportation Community and Regional Natural Resources Other 806 892 1,044 1,091 1,216 1,422 1,696 572 554 589 521 484 569 721 234 338 455 570 732 853 975 98 128 155 176 206 234 269 61 78 94 109 130 143 154 36 51 61 67 76 90 114 136 209 301 394 526 619 706 82 146 213 261 317 368 429 25 30 44 71 112 135 147 20 21 25 39 73 92 105 9 12 19 23 25 24 26 1,832 1,845 1,858 1,869 1,890 1,922 1,965 2,017 2,066 712 691 672 657 644 635 635 639 645 1,119 1,153 1,186 1,212 1,246 1,286 1,331 1,378 1,421 311 319 327 330 338 351 364 379 392 164 165 165 165 166 167 170 173 175 146 154 162 165 173 183 194 206 217 809 834 859 883 908 936 967 999 1,029 496 511 526 540 556 574 595 617 637 156 159 162 165 168 170 173 176 179 115 116 118 119 120 121 123 124 126 43 48 53 59 65 70 76 82 87 Real stocks of defense and nondefense capital show very different trends. Nondefense stocks have grown consistently since 1970, increasing from $455 billion in 1970 to $1,331 billion in 2001. With the investments proposed in the budget, nondefense stocks are estimated to grow to $1,421 billion in 2003. During the 1970s, the nondefense capital stock grew at an average annual rate of 4.9 percent. In the 1980s, however, the growth rate slowed to 2.9 percent annually, with growth continuing at about that rate since then. Real national defense stocks began in 1970 at a relatively high level, and declined steadily throughout the decade as depreciation from the Vietnam era exceeded new investment in military construction and weapons procurement. Starting in the early 1980s, a large defense buildup began to increase the stock of defense capital. By 1986, the defense stock had exceeded its earlier Vietnam-era peak. In recent years, depreciation on the increased stocks, together with a slower pace of defense physical capital investment allowed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the closure or realignment of unneeded military bases, reduced the stock from its previous levels. The increased defense investment in this budget would reverse this decline. Another trend in the Federal physical capital stocks is the shift from direct Federal assets to grant-financed assets. In 1960, 42 percent of federally financed nondefense capital was owned by the Federal Government, and 58 percent was owned by State and local governments but financed by Federal grants. Expansion in Federal grants for highways and other State and local capital, coupled with slower growth in direct Federal investment for water resources, for example, shifted the composition of the stock substantially. In 2001, 27 percent of the nondefense stock was owned by the Federal Government and 73 percent by State and local governments. The growth in the stock of physical capital financed by grants has come in several areas. The growth in the stock for transportation is largely grants for highways, including the Interstate Highway System. The growth in community and regional development stocks occurred largely with the enactment of the community development block grant in the early 1970s. The value of this capital stock has grown only slowly in the past few years. The growth in the natural resources area occurred primarily because of construction grants for sewage treatment facilities. The value of this federally financed stock has increased about 30 percent since the mid-1980s. Table 7–5 shows nondefense physical capital outlays both gross and net of depreciation since 1960. Total nondefense net investment has been consistently positive over the period covered by the table, indicating that new investment has exceeded depreciation on the existing stock. For some categories in the table, such as water and power programs, however, net investment has been negative in some years, indicating that new investment has not been sufficient to offset estimated depreciation. The net investment in this table is the change in the net nondefense physical capital stock displayed in Table 7–4. The Stock of Research and Development Capital This section presents data on the stock of research and development, taking into account adjustments for its depreciation. Trends.—As shown in Table 7–6, the R&D capital stock financed by Federal outlays is estimated to be $933 billion in 2001 in constant 1996 dollars. Roughly 7. 143 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–5. COMPOSITION OF GROSS AND NET FEDERAL AND FEDERALLY FINANCED NONDEFENSE PUBLIC PHYSICAL INVESTMENT (In billions of 1996 dollars) Total nondefense investment Direct Federal investment Investment financed by Federal grants Composition of net investment Fiscal Year Gross Five year intervals: 1960 ........................ 1965 ........................ 1970 ........................ 1975 ........................ 1980 ........................ 1985 ........................ 1990 ........................ Annual data: 1995 ........................ 1996 ........................ 1997 ........................ 1998 ........................ 1999 ........................ 2000 ........................ 2001 ........................ 2002 est. ................. 2003 est. ................. Depreciation Net Gross Depreciation Net Water and power Composition of net investment Gross Depreciation Net Other Transportation (mainly highways) Community and regional development Natural resources and environment Other 22.7 32.5 32.1 32.9 46.9 45.4 46.3 4.7 6.9 9.4 11.6 14.6 17.8 22.3 18.1 25.6 22.6 21.3 32.4 27.7 24.0 7.0 10.1 6.9 9.0 11.0 13.7 16.2 2.2 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.9 6.4 9.2 4.7 7.1 3.1 4.8 6.0 7.4 7.0 2.5 3.3 2.3 3.6 3.9 2.6 2.4 2.3 3.8 0.8 1.2 2.2 4.8 4.5 15.7 22.3 25.1 23.8 36.0 31.7 30.1 2.4 3.8 5.6 7.4 9.6 11.4 13.1 13.3 18.5 19.5 16.5 26.4 20.3 17.1 12.6 15.5 11.9 7.0 12.3 13.0 11.9 0.1 2.1 5.1 4.3 7.5 4.1 1.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 4.5 6.8 3.2 2.1 0.5 0.5 1.6 0.7 –0.2 –0.1 1.4 59.9 61.1 60.9 55.5 63.5 71.1 76.3 81.3 78.2 26.3 27.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30.9 32.2 33.8 35.3 33.5 33.8 32.7 26.6 33.7 40.2 44.1 47.5 42.9 19.5 20.7 20.0 15.5 21.3 25.7 27.7 30.7 28.5 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 8.2 8.9 7.7 2.9 8.4 12.2 13.3 15.4 12.3 1.8 0.9 –0.1 –* 0.7 1.6 2.7 3.1 1.9 6.3 8.0 7.8 2.9 7.8 10.6 10.7 12.3 10.4 40.3 40.3 40.9 40.0 42.2 45.4 48.6 50.6 49.7 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 25.4 24.9 25.0 23.7 25.3 28.1 30.7 32.1 30.6 15.2 14.9 15.2 14.1 16.1 18.1 21.0 21.5 19.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.4 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.7 5.4 6.0 5.6 * $50 million or less. half is the stock of basic research knowledge; the remainder is the stock of applied research and development. The nondefense stock accounted for about three-fifths of the total federally financed R&D stock in 2001. Although investment in defense R&D has exceeded that of nondefense R&D in every year since 1981, the nondefense R&D stock is actually the larger of the two, because of the different emphasis on basic research and applied research and development. Defense R&D spending is heavily concentrated in applied research and development, which depreciates much more quickly than basic research. The stock of applied research and development is assumed to depreciate at a ten percent geometric rate, while basic research is assumed not to depreciate at all. The defense R&D stock rose slowly during the 1970s, as gross outlays for R&D trended down in constant dollars and the stock created in the 1960s depreciated. Increased defense R&D spending from 1980 through 1990 led to a more rapid growth of the R&D stock. Subsequently, real defense R&D outlays tapered off, depreciation grew, and, as a result, the real net defense R&D stock stabilized at around $400 billion. The growth of the nondefense R&D stock slowed from the 1970s to the 1980s, from an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the 1970s to a rate of 2.1 percent in the 1980s. Gross investment in real terms fell during much of the 1980s, and about three-fourths of new outlays went to replacing depreciated R&D. Since 1988, however, nondefense R&D outlays have been on an upward trend while depreciation has edged down. As a result, the net nondefense R&D capital stock has grown more rapidly. The Stock of Education Capital This section presents estimates of the stock of education capital financed by the Federal government. As shown in Table 7–7, the federally financed education stock is estimated at $1,057 billion in 2001 in constant 1996 dollars, rising to $1,157 billion in 2003. The vast majority of the Nation’s education stock is financed by State and local governments, and by students and their families themselves. This federally financed portion of the stock represents about 3 percent of the Nation’s total education stock.1 Nearly threequarters is for elementary and secondary education, while the remaining one quarter is for higher education. Despite a slowdown in growth during the early 1980s, the stock grew at an average annual rate of 5.3 percent from 1970 to 2001, and the expansion of the education stock is projected to continue under this budget. Note on Estimating Methods This note provides further technical detail about the estimation of the capital stock series presented in Tables 7–4 through 7–7. As stated previously, the capital stock estimates are very rough approximations. Sources of possible error include: Methodological issues.—The stocks of physical capital and research and development are estimated with the perpetual inventory method. A fundamental assumption of this method is that each dollar of investment spending adds a dollar to the value of the capital stock in the period in which the spending takes place. In reality, 1 For estimates of the total education stock, see table 3–4 in Chapter 3, ‘‘Stewardship: Toward a Federal Balance Sheet.’’ 144 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–6. NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 1 (In billions of 1996 dollars) National Defense Fiscal Year Total Five year intervals: 1970 .................................................................. 1975 .................................................................. 1980 .................................................................. 1985 .................................................................. 1990 .................................................................. Annual data: 1995 .................................................................. 1996 .................................................................. 1997 .................................................................. 1998 .................................................................. 1999 .................................................................. 2000 .................................................................. 2001 .................................................................. 2002 est. .......................................................... 2003 est. .......................................................... 1 Excludes Basic Research Nondefense Applied Research and Development Basic Research Total Total Federal Applied Research and Development Total Basic Research Applied Research and Development 247 262 265 304 381 15 19 24 29 34 233 242 242 276 347 204 249 295 321 362 63 92 125 165 217 140 157 170 156 146 451 511 560 626 744 78 112 148 194 251 373 399 412 432 493 399 401 403 403 402 398 400 405 413 40 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 359 360 360 360 358 353 353 357 364 436 448 463 478 495 512 533 558 585 278 290 303 317 331 347 366 386 408 158 158 160 162 164 164 167 172 177 835 850 866 882 897 910 933 963 999 318 332 346 360 376 393 413 434 458 517 518 520 522 521 517 520 529 541 stock of physical capital for research and development, which is included in Table 7–4. Table 7–7. NET STOCK OF FEDERALLY FINANCED EDUCATION CAPITAL (In billions of 1996 dollars) Total Education Stock Fiscal Year Five year intervals: 1960 ............................................................................... 1965 ............................................................................... 1970 ............................................................................... 1975 ............................................................................... 1980 ............................................................................... 1985 ............................................................................... 1990 ............................................................................... Annual data: 1995 ............................................................................... 1996 ............................................................................... 1997 ............................................................................... 1998 ............................................................................... 1999 ............................................................................... 2000 ............................................................................... 2001 ............................................................................... 2002 est. ........................................................................ 2003 est. ........................................................................ the value of the asset created could be more or less than the investment spending. As an extreme example, in cases where a project is canceled before completion, the spending on the project does not result in the creation of any asset. Even where asset value is equal to investment spending, there might be timing differences in spending and the creation of a capital asset. For example, payments for constructing an aircraft carrier might be made over a period of years, with the capital asset only created at the end of the period. The historical outlay series.—The historical outlay series for physical capital was based on budget records since 1940 and was extended back to 1915 using data from selected sources. There are no consistent outlay Elementary and Secondary Education Higher Education 67 93 213 307 434 535 703 48 67 167 247 338 399 519 19 26 46 60 96 137 184 792 822 856 909 968 1,013 1,057 1,094 1,157 575 597 621 661 707 742 769 793 839 218 226 235 248 261 271 288 301 318 data on physical capital for this earlier period, and the estimates are approximations. In addition, the historical outlay series in the budget for physical capital extending back to 1940 may be incomplete. The historical outlay series for the conduct of research and development began in the early 1950s and required selected sources to be extended back to 1940. In addition, separate outlay data for basic research and applied R&D were not available for any years and had to be estimated from obligations and budget authority. For education, data for Federal outlays from the budget were combined with data for non-Federal spending from the institution or jurisdiction receiving Federal funds, which may introduce error because of differing fiscal 7. FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING years and confusion about whether the Federal Government was the original source of funding. Price adjustments.—The prices for the components of the Federal stock of physical, R&D, and education capital have increased through time, but the rates of increase are not accurately known. Estimates of costs in fiscal year 1996 prices were made through the application of price measures from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), but these should be considered only approximations of the costs of these assets in 1996 prices. Depreciation.—The useful lives of physical, R&D, and education capital, as well as the pattern by which they depreciate, are very uncertain. This is compounded by using depreciation rates for broad classes of assets, which do not apply uniformly to all the components of each group. As a result, the depreciation estimates should also be considered approximations. This limitation is especially important in capital financed by grants, where the specific asset financed with the grant is often subject to the discretion of the recipient jurisdiction. Research continues on the best methods to estimate these capital stocks. The estimates presented in the text could change as better information becomes available on the underlying investment data and as improved methods are developed for estimating the stocks based on those data. Physical Capital Stocks For many years, current and constant-cost data on the stock of most forms of public and private physical capital—e.g., roads, factories, and housing—have been estimated annually by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the Department of Commerce. With two recent comprehensive revisions of the NIPAs in January 1996 and October 1999, government investment has taken increased prominence. Government investment in physical capital is now reported separately from government consumption expenditures, and government consumption expenditures include depreciation as a measure of the services provided by the existing capital stock. In addition, as part of the most recent revisions, a new NIPA table explicitly links investment and capital stocks by reporting the net stock of Government physical capital and decomposing the annual change in the stock into investment, depreciation, extraordinary changes such as disasters, and revaluation.2 The BEA data are not directly linked to the Federal budget, do not extend to the years covered by the budget, and do not separately identify the capital financed but not owned by the Federal Government. For these reasons, OMB prepares separate estimates for budgetary purposes, using techniques that roughly follow the BEA methods. Method of estimation.—The estimates were developed from the OMB historical data base for physical capital outlays and grants to State and local governments for 2 BEA most recently presented its capital stocks in ‘‘Fixed Assets and Consumer Durable Goods for 1925–2000,’’ Survey of Current Business, September 2001, pp. 27–38. 145 physical capital. These are the same major public physical capital outlays presented in Part I. This data base extends back to 1940 and was supplemented by rough estimates for 1915–1939. The deflators used to convert historical outlays to constant 1996 dollars were based on chained NIPA price indexes for Federal, State, and local consumption of durables and gross investment. For 1915 through 1929, deflators were estimated from Census Bureau historical statistics on constant price public capital formation. The resulting capital stocks were aggregated into nine categories and depreciated using geometric rates roughly following those of BEA, which estimates depreciation using much more detailed categories.3 The geometric rates were 1.9 percent for water and power projects; 2.4 percent for other direct nondefense construction and rehabilitation; 20.3 percent for nondefense equipment; 14.0 percent for defense equipment; 2.1 percent for defense structures; 2.0 percent for transportation grants; 1.7 percent for community and regional development grants; 1.5 percent for natural resources and environment grants; and 1.8 percent for other nondefense grants. Research and Development Capital Stocks Method of estimation.—The estimates were developed from a data base for the conduct of research and development largely consistent with the data in the Historical Tables. Although there is no consistent time series on basic and applied R&D for defense and nondefense outlays back to 1940, it was possible to estimate the data using obligations and budget authority. The data are for the conduct of R&D only and exclude outlays for physical capital for research and development, because those are included in the estimates of physical capital. Nominal outlays were deflated by the chained price index for gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year 1996 dollars to obtain estimates of constant dollar R&D spending. The appropriate depreciation rate of intangible R&D capital is even more uncertain than that of physical capital. Empirical evidence is inconclusive. It was assumed that basic research capital does not depreciate and that applied research and development capital has a ten percent geometric depreciation rate. These are the same assumptions used in a study published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimating the R&D stock financed by private industry.4 More recent experimental work at BEA, extending estimates of tangible capital stocks to R&D, used slightly different assumptions. This work assumed straight-line depreciation for all R&D over a useful life of 18 years, which is roughly equivalent to a geometric depreciation rate of 11 percent. The slightly higher depreciation rate and its ex3 BEA presented its depreciation methods and rates in ‘‘Improved Estimates of Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth, 1929–95,’’ Survey of Current Business, May 1997, pp. 69–76. Changes in depreciation methods introduced with BEA’s October 1999 comprehensive revisions were detailed in ‘‘Fixed Assets and Consumer Durable Goods,’’ Survey of Current Business, April 2000, pp. 17–30. 4 See U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Impact of Research and Development on Productivity Growth, Bulletin 2331, September 1989. 146 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES tension to basic research would result in smaller stocks than the method used here.5 Education Capital Stocks Method of estimation.—The estimates of the federally financed education capital stock in Table 7–7 were calculated by first estimating the Nation’s total stock of education capital, based on the current replacement cost of the total years of education of the population, including opportunity costs. To derive the Federal share of this total stock, the Federal share of total educational expenditures was applied to the total amount. The per- cent in any year was estimated by averaging the prior years’ share of Federal education outlays in total education costs. For more information, refer to the technical note in Chapter 3, ‘‘Stewardship: Toward a Federal Balance Sheet.’’ The stock of capital estimated in Table 7–7 is based only on spending for education. Stocks created by other human capital investment outlays included in Table 7–1, such as job training and vocational rehabilitation, were not calculated because of the lack of historical data prior to 1962 and the absence of estimates of depreciation rates. Part III: ALTERNATIVE CAPITAL BUDGET AND CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PRESENTATIONS A capital budget would separate Federal expenditures into two categories: spending for investment and all other spending. In this sense, Part I of the present chapter provides a capital budget for the Federal Government, distinguishing outlays that yield long-term benefits from all others. But alternative capital budget presentations have also been suggested, and a capital budget process may take many different forms. This section is intended to show the implications of budgeting for capital separately or changing the basis for measuring capital investment in the budget. An Administration proposal being developed for capital acquisition funds is discussed in chapter 1 of this volume, ‘‘Budget and Performance Integration.’’ It would neither budget for capital separately nor change the basis for measuring capital investment in the budget. The Federal budget mainly finances investment for two quite different types of reasons. It invests in capital—such as office buildings, computers, and weapons systems—that primarily contributes to its ability to provide governmental services to the public; some of these services, in turn, are designed to increase economic growth. And it invests in capital—such as highways, education, and research—that contributes more directly to the economic growth of the Nation. Most of the capital in the second category, unlike the first, is not owned or controlled by the Federal Government. In the discussion that follows, the first is called ‘‘Federal capital’’ and the second is called ‘‘national capital.’’ Table 7–8 compares total Federal investment as defined in Part I of this chapter with investment in Federal capital and in national capital. Some Federal investment is not classified as either Federal or national capital, and a relatively small part is included in both categories. Capital budgets and other changes in Federal budgeting have been suggested from time to time for the Government’s investment in both Federal and national capital. The proposals differ widely in coverage, depending on the rationale for the suggestion. Some would include all the investment shown in Table 7–1, or more, whereas others would be narrower in various ways. 5 See ‘‘A Satellite Account for Research and Development,’’ Survey of Current Business, November 1994, pp. 37–71. These proposals also differ in other respects, such as whether the basis for measuring capital investment in the budget is altered, whether investment would be financed by borrowing, and whether the non-investment budget would necessarily be balanced. Some of these proposals are discussed below and illustrated by alternative capital budget and other capital expenditure presentations, although the discussion does not address matters of implementation such as the effect on the Budget Enforcement Act. The planning process for capital assets, which is a different subject, is discussed in a separate publication, the Capital Programming Guide.6 Investment in Federal Capital The goal of investment in Federal capital is to deliver the right amount of Government services as efficiently and effectively as possible. The Congress allocates resources to Federal agencies to accomplish a wide variety of programmatic goals. Because these goals are diverse and most are not measured in dollars, they are difficult to compare with each other. Policy judgments must be made as to their relative importance. Once amounts have been allocated for one of these goals, however, analysis may be able to assist in choosing the most efficient and effective means of delivering service. This is the context in which decisions are made on the amount of investment in Federal capital. For example, budget proposals for the Department of Justice must consider whether to increase the number of FBI agents, the amount of justice assistance grants to State and local governments, or the number of Federal prisons in order to accomplish the department’s objectives. The optimal amount of investment in Federal capital to meet a goal derives from these decisions; the optimal amount of total investment to meet all of the Government’s goals derives from these decisions and from the policy decisions about how much to allocate for each goal. There is no efficient target for total investment in Federal capital as such either for a single agency or for the Government as a whole. 6 Office of Management and Budget, Capital Programming Guide (July 1997). 7. 147 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–8. ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONS OF INVESTMENT OUTLAYS, 2003 (In millions of dollars) Investment Outlays All types of capital 1 Federal capital National capital 37,407 2,966 7,377 7,673 530 ................ ................ ................ ................ ................ 37,407 2,966 1,238 ................ 425 8,947 2,254 6,119 1,272 412 1,591 1,039 1,298 3,714 8,947 2,239 4,933 1,272 359 1,591 1,039 1,298 3,360 ................ 2,254 5,583 1,272 412 1,591 1,039 ................ 1,300 Total construction and rehabilitation ..................................................... Acquisition of major equipment (direct): National defense ............................................................................................. Postal Service ................................................................................................. Air transportation ............................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................................... 82,599 25,038 55,487 63,708 612 2,766 8,297 63,708 612 2,766 7,466 ................ 612 2,766 4,198 Total major equipment ............................................................................... Purchase or sale of land and structures ........................................................... Other physical assets (grants) ........................................................................... 75,383 365 1,209 74,552 365 ................ 7,576 ................ 95 Total physical investment ............................................................................... Research and development: Defense ........................................................................................................... Nondefense ..................................................................................................... 159,556 99,955 63,158 59,939 47,009 ................ ................ 1,277 46,668 Total research and development ............................................................... Education and training ........................................................................................ 106,948 76,069 ................ ................ 47,945 75,436 Total investment outlays ..................................................................................... 342,573 99,955 186,539 Construction and rehabilitation: Grants: Transportation ............................................................................................ Natural resources and environment .......................................................... Community and regional development ...................................................... Housing assistance .................................................................................... Other grants ............................................................................................... Direct Federal: National defense ........................................................................................ General science, space, and technology .................................................. Natural resources and environment .......................................................... Energy ........................................................................................................ Transportation ............................................................................................ Veterans and other health facilities ........................................................... Postal Service ............................................................................................ GSA real property activities ....................................................................... Other construction ...................................................................................... 1 Total outlays for ‘‘all types of capital‘‘ are equal to the total for ‘‘major Federal investment outlays’’ in Table 7–1. Some capital is not classified as either Federal or national capital, and a relatively small part is included in both categories. The universe of Federal capital encompasses all federally owned capital assets. It excludes Federal grants to States for infrastructure, such as highways, and it excludes intangible investment, such as education and research. Investment in Federal capital in 2003 is estimated to be $100.0 billion, or 29 percent of the total Federal investment outlays shown in Table 7–1. Of the investment in Federal capital, 73 percent is for defense and 27 percent for nondefense purposes. A Capital Budget for Capital Assets Discussion of a capital budget has often centered on Federal capital—buildings, other construction, equipment, and software that support the delivery of Federal services. This includes capital commonly available from the commercial sector, such as office buildings, computers, military family housing, veterans hospitals, research and development facilities, and associated equip- ment; it also includes special purpose capital such as weapons systems, military bases, the space station, and dams. This definition excludes capital that the Federal Government has financed but does not own. Some capital budget proposals would partition the unified budget into a capital budget, an operating budget, and a total budget. Table 7–9 illustrates such a capital budget for capital assets as defined above. It is accompanied by an operating budget and a total budget. The operating budget consists of all expenditures except those included in the capital budget, plus depreciation on the stock of assets of the type purchased through the capital budget. The capital budget consists of expenditures for capital assets and, on the income side of the account, depreciation. The total budget is the present unified budget, largely based on cash for its measure of transactions, which records all outlays and receipts of the Federal Government. It con- 148 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES solidates the operating and capital budgets by adding them together and netting out depreciation as an intragovernmental transaction. The operating budget has a smaller deficit than the unified budget by a modest amount, by $17 billion, because capital expenditures are larger than depreciation by $18 billion. (The difference between these two amounts is due to rounding.) This reflects both the small Federal investment in new capital assets relative to the budget as a whole ($100 billion) and the largely offsetting effect of depreciation on the existing stock ($82 billion). The figures in Table 7–9 and the subsequent tables of this section are rough estimates, intended only to be illustrative and to provide a basis for broad generalizations. Table 7–9. CAPITAL, OPERATING, AND UNIFIED BUDGETS: FEDERAL CAPITAL, 2003 1 2 (In billions of dollars) Operating Budget Receipts .................................................................................................. Expenses: Depreciation ....................................................................................... Other .................................................................................................. 82 2,028 Subtotal, expenses ........................................................................ 2,111 Surplus or deficit (–) .......................................................................... Capital Budget Income: depreciation .............................................................................. Capital expenditures .............................................................................. –63 Surplus or deficit (–) .......................................................................... Unified Budget Receipts .................................................................................................. Outlays ................................................................................................... –18 2,048 2,128 Surplus or deficit (–) .......................................................................... –80 2,048 82 100 1 Historical data to estimate the capital stocks and calculate depreciation are not readily available for Federal capital. Depreciation estimates were based on the assumption that outlays for Federal capital were a constant percentage of the larger categor 2 The details of this table do not add to the totals in every case due to rounding. Some proposals for a capital budget would exclude defense capital (other than military family housing). These exclusions—weapons systems, military bases, and so forth—would comprise three-fourths of the expenditures shown in the capital budget of Table 7–9. For 2003, this exclusion would make little difference to the operating budget surplus. If defense capital was excluded, the operating budget would have a deficit that was $12 billion less than the unified budget surplus instead of $17 billion less as shown above for the complete coverage of Federal capital. Capital expenditures for defense in 2003 are estimated to be $6 billion more than depreciation, whereas capital expenditures for nondefense purposes (plus military family housing) are estimated to be $12 billion more. Budget Discipline and a Capital Budget Many proposals for a capital budget, though not all, would effectively dispense with the unified budget and make expenditure decisions on capital asset acquisi- tions in terms of the operating budget instead. When an agency proposed to purchase a capital asset, the operating budget would include only the estimated depreciation. For example, suppose that an agency proposed to buy a $50 million building at the beginning of the year with an estimated life of 25 years and with depreciation calculated by the straightline method. Operating expense in the budget year would increase by $2 million, or only 4 percent of the asset cost. The same amount of depreciation would be recorded as an increase in operating expense for each year of the asset’s life.7 If the asset was constructed or built to order, no depreciation would be recorded until the work was completed and the asset put into service. This could be several years after the initial expenditure, in which case the budget would record no expense at all in the budget year or several years thereafter. Recording the annual depreciation in the operating budget each year would provide little control over the decision about whether to invest in the first place. Most Federal investments are sunk costs and as a practical matter cannot be recovered by selling or renting the asset. At the same time, there is a significant risk that the need for a capital asset may change over a period of years, because either the need is not permanent, it is initially misjudged, or other needs become more important. Since the cost is sunk, however, control cannot be exercised later on by comparing the annual benefit of the asset services with depreciation and interest and then selling the asset if its annual services are not worth this expense. Control can only be exercised up front when the Government commits itself to the full sunk cost. By spreading the real cost of the project over time, however, use of the operating budget for expenditure decisions would make the budgetary cost of the capital asset appear very cheap when decisions were being made that compared it to alternative expenditures—as noted above, it could even be zero if the asset was made to order. As a result, there would be an incentive to purchase capital assets with little regard for need, and also with little regard for the least-cost method of acquisition. A budget is a financial plan for allocating resources— deciding how much the Federal Government should spend in total, program by program, and for the parts of each program. The budgetary system provides a process for proposing policies, making decisions, implementing them, and reporting the results. The budget needs to measure costs accurately so that decision makers can compare the cost of a program with its benefit, the cost of one program with another, and the cost of alternative methods of reaching a specified goal. These costs need to be fully included in the budget up front, when the spending decision is made, so that executive and congressional decision makers have the information and the incentive to take the total costs into account in setting priorities. 7 The amount of depreciation that typically would be recorded as an expense in the budget year for an already existing asset is overstated by this illustration. Most assets are purchased after the beginning of the year, in which case less than a full year’s depreciation would normally be recorded. 7. FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING The present budget does this for investment. It records investment on a cash basis, and it requires Congress to vote budget authority before an agency can obligate the Government to make an outlay. By these means, it causes the total cost to be compared up front in a rough and ready way with the total expected future net benefits. Since the budget measures only cost, the benefits with which these costs are compared, based on policy makers’ judgment, must be presented in supplementary materials. Such a comparison of total cost with benefits is consistent with the formal method of cost-benefit analysis of capital projects in government, in which the full cost of a capital asset as the cash is paid out is compared with the full stream of future benefits (all in terms of present values).8 This comparison is also consistent with common business practice, in which most capital budgeting decisions are made by comparing cash flows. The cash outflow for the full purchase price is compared with expected future cash inflows, either through a relatively sophisticated technique of discounted cash flows—such as net present value or internal rate of return—or through cruder methods such as payback periods.9 Regardless of the specific technique adopted, it usually requires comparing future returns with the entire cost of the asset up front—not spread over time through annual depreciation.10 Practice Outside the Federal Government The proponents of making investment decisions on the basis of an operating budget with depreciation have sometimes claimed that this is the common practice outside the Federal Government. However, while the practice of others may differ from the Federal budget and the terms ‘‘capital budget’’ and ‘‘capital budgeting’’ are often used, these terms do not normally mean that capital asset acquisitions are decided on the basis of annual depreciation cost. The use of these terms in business and State government also does not mean that businesses and States finance all their investment by borrowing. Nor does it mean that under a capital budget the extent of borrowing by the Federal Government to finance investment would be limited by the same 8 A For example, see Edward M. Gramlich, A Guide to Benefit-Cost Analysis (2nd ed.; Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1990), chap. 6; or Joseph E. Stiglitz, Economics of the Public Sector (2nd ed.; New York: Norton, 1988), chap. 10. This theory is applied in formal OMB instructions to Federal agencies in OMB Circular No. A-94, Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Federal Programs (October 29, 1992). General Accounting Office, Discount Rate Policy, GAO/OCE-17.1.1 (May 1991), discusses the appropriate discount rate for such analysis but not the foundation of the analysis itself, which is implicitly assumed. 9 For a full textbook analysis of capital budgeting techniques in business, see Harold Bierman, Jr., and Seymour Smidt, The Capital Budgeting Decision (8th ed.; Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1993). Shorter analyses from the standpoints of corporate finance and cost accounting may be found, for example, in Richard A. Brealey and Stewart C. Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance (5th ed.; New York: McGraw-Hill, 1996), chap. 2, 5, and 6; Charles T. Horngren et al., Cost Accounting (9th ed.; Upper Saddle River, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1997), chap. 22 and 23; Jerold L. Zimmerman, Accounting for Decision Making and Control (Chicago: Irwin, 1995), chap. 3; and Surendra S. Singhvi, ‘‘Capital-Investment Budgeting Process’’ and ‘‘Capital-Expenditure Evaluation Methods,’’ chap. 19 and 20 in Robert Rachlin, ed., Handbook of Budgeting (4th ed.; New York: Wiley, 1999). 10 Two surveys of business practice conducted a few years ago found that such techniques are predominant. See Thomas Klammer et al., ‘‘Capital Budgeting Practices—A Survey of Corporate Use,’’ Journal of Management and Accounting Research, vol. 3 (Fall 1991), pp. 113–30; and Glenn H. Petry and James Sprow, ‘‘The Theory and Practice of Finance in the 1990s,’’ The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 33 (Winter 1993), pp. 359–82. Petry and Sprow also found that discounted cash flow techniques are recommended by the most widely used textbooks in managerial finance. 149 forces that constrain business and State borrowing for investment. Private business firms call their investment decision making process ‘‘capital budgeting,’’ and they record the resulting planned expenditures in a ‘‘capital budget.’’ However, decisions are normally based on upfront comparisons of the cash outflows needed to make the investment with the resulting cash inflows expected in the future, as explained above, and the capital budget records the period-by-period cash outflows proposed for capital projects.11 This supports the business’s goal of deciding upon and controlling the use of its resources to earn income. The cash-based focus of business budgeting for capital is in contrast to business financial statements—the income statement and balance sheet—which use accrual accounting for a different purpose, namely, to record how well the business is meeting its objective of earning profit and accumulating wealth for its owners. For this purpose, the income statement shows the profit in a year from earning revenue net of the expenses incurred. These expenses include depreciation, which is an allocation of the costs of capital assets over their estimated useful lives. With similar objectives in mind, the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board has adopted the use of depreciation on general property, plant, and equipment owned by the Federal Government as a measure of expense in financial statements and cost accounting for Federal agencies.12 Businesses finance investment from net income, cash on hand, and other sources as well as borrowing. When they borrow to finance investment, they are constrained in ways that Federal borrowing is not. The amount that a business borrows is limited by its own profit motive and the market’s assessment of its capacity to repay. The greater a business’s indebtedness, other things equal, the more risky is any additional borrowing and the higher is the cost of funds it must pay. Since the profit motive ensures that a business will not want to borrow unless the expected return is at least as high as the cost of funds, the amount of investment that a business will want to finance is limited; it has an incentive to borrow only for projects where the expected return is as high or higher than the cost of funds. Furthermore, if the risk is great enough, a business may not be able to find a lender. No such constraint limits the Federal Government— either in the total amount of its borrowing for investment, or in its choice of which assets to buy—because of its sovereign power to tax and the wide economic base that it taxes. It can tax to pay for investment; 11 A business capital budget is depicted in Glenn A. Welsch et al., Budgeting: Profit Planning and Control (5th ed.; Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall, 1988), pp. 396–99. 12 Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards No. 6, Accounting for Property, Plant, and Equipment, pp. 5–14 and 34–35. (The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board was established by the Office of Management and Budget, Department of Treasury, and General Accounting Office to develop accounting standards and concepts for the Federal government. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants has designated it as the body to establish generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for Federal government entities.) Depreciation is not used as a measure of expense for heritage assets, or for weapons systems and other national defense property, plant, and equipment. Depreciation also is not used as a measure of expense for physical property financed by the Federal Government but owned by State and local governments, or for investment that the Federal Government finances in human capital and research and development. 150 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES and, if it borrows, its power to tax ensures that the credit market will judge U.S. Treasury securities free from any risk of default even if it borrows ‘‘excessively’’ or for projects that do not seem worthwhile. The only constraint is policy decisions about the budget. Most States also have a ‘‘capital budget,’’ but the operating budget is not like the operating budget envisaged by proponents of making Federal investment decisions on the basis of depreciation. State capital budgets differ widely in many respects but generally relate some of the State’s purchases of capital assets to borrowing and other earmarked means of financing. For the debtfinanced portion of investment, the interest and repayment of principal are usually recorded as expenditures in the operating budget. For the portion of investment purchased in the capital budget but financed by Federal grants or State taxes, which may be substantial, State operating budgets do not record any amount. No State operating budget is charged for depreciation.13 States did not traditionally record depreciation expense in the financial accounting statements for governmental funds. They recorded depreciation expense only in their proprietary (commercial-type) funds and in those trust funds where net income, expense, or capital maintenance was measured.14 Under new financial accounting standards, however, depreciation on most capital assets will be recognized as an expense in government-wide financial statements. This requirement is now being phased-in and is effective for larger governments for fiscal years beginning after June 2001.15 State borrowing to finance investment, like business borrowing, is subject to limitations that do not apply to Federal borrowing. Like business borrowing, it is constrained by the credit market’s assessment of the State’s capacity to repay, which is reflected in the credit ratings of its bonds. Rating agencies place significant weight on the amount of debt outstanding compared to the economic output generated by the State. Furthermore, borrowing is usually designated for specified investments, and it is almost always subject to constitutional limits or referendum requirements. Other developed nations tend to show a more systematic breakdown between investment and operating expenditures within their budgets than does the United States, even while they record capital expenditures on a cash basis within the same budget totals. The French budget, for example, has traditionally been divided into separate titles of which some are for current expenditures and others for capital expenditures. A study of European countries several years ago found only four at that time which had a real difference between a current budget and a capital budget (Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Portugal).16 In addition, three developed countries have recently adopted accrual budgets that include the use of depreciation in place of capital expenditures. These countries, however, require appropriations for the full cost or current cash disbursements as an additional control under some or all circumstances. New Zealand, the first country to shift to an accrual budget, requires the equivalent of appropriations for the full cost up front before a department can make net additions to its capital assets or before the government can acquire certain capital assets such as state highways. It also requires Cabinet approval for purchases above a threshold amount. Australia, which adopted an accrual budget as of its 1999–2000 budget, requires an appropriation for departments that do not have adequate reserves to purchase assets. The United Kingdom budgeted on an accrual basis starting with its 2001–02 fiscal year. However, Parliamentary approval is needed for both the ‘‘resource budget,’’ which includes depreciation, and the departmental cash requirement, which includes the cash payments made for capital assets. Canada publishes its budget on a modified accrual basis and intends to shift to full accruals, including the depreciation of capital assets. However, it distinguishes between its budget and its ‘‘estimates.’’ The budget sets forth the overall fiscal framework, while the ‘‘estimates’’ comprise the detailed departmental appropriations. The estimates are on a modified cash basis, different from the budget, that does not make use of depreciation. This would be an additional control in the context of a full accrual budget. A country with an accrual budget may calculate its measure of fiscal position on other bases as well. The Australian budget has several measures of fiscal position. The primary fiscal measure, the fiscal balance, is close to a cash basis and includes the purchase of property, plant, and equipment rather than depreciation.17 On the other hand, some countries—including Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands—formerly had separate capital budgets but abandoned them a number of years ago.18 The Netherlands and Sweden, though, are either planning to adopt accruals for their 13 The characteristics of State capital budgets were examined in a survey of State budget officers for all 50 States in 1986. See Lawrence W. Hush and Kathleen Peroff, ‘‘The Variety of State Capital Budgets: A Survey,’’ Public Budgeting and Finance (Summer 1988), pp. 67–79. More detailed results are available in an unpublished OMB document, ‘‘State Capital Budgets’’ (July 7, 1987). Two GAO reports examined State capital budgets and reached similar conclusions on the issues in question. See Budget Issues: Capital Budgeting Practices in the States, GAO/AFMD-86–63FS (July 1986), and Budget Issues: State Practices for Financing Capital Projects, GAO/AFMD-89–64 (July 1989). For further information about state capital budgeting, see National Association of State Budget Officers, Capital Budgeting in the States (November 1999). 14Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB), Codification of Governmental Accounting and Financial Reporting Standards as of June 30, 2000, sections 1100.107 and 1400.114–1400.118. 15 Governmental Accounting Standards Board, Statement No. 34, Basic Financial Statements—and Management’s Discussion and Analysis—for State and Local Governments (June 1999), paragraphs 18–29 and 44–45. For discussion of the basis for conclusions of these new standards, see paragraphs 330–43. 16 M. Peter van der Hoek, ‘‘Fund Accounting and Capital Budgeting: European Experience,’’ Public Budgeting and Financial Management, vol. 8 (Spring 1996), pp. 39–40. 17 The practices and plans of New Zealand, Australia, United Kingdom, and Canada are discussed in GAO, Accrual Budgeting: Experiences of Other Nations and Implications for the United States, GAO/AIMD-00–57 (February 2000). 18 Denmark had accrual budgets generally, not just for capital assets, but abandoned that practice a number of years ago. The budgets in Sweden, Great Britain, Germany, and France as of the middle 1980s are described in GAO, Budget Issues: Budgeting Practices in West Germany, France, Sweden, and Great Britain, GAO/AFMD-87–8FS (November 1986). Sweden had separate capital and operating budgets from 1937 to 1981, together with a total consolidated budget from 1956 onwards. The reasons for abandoning the capital budget are discussed briefly in the GAO report and more extensively by a government commission established to recommend changes in the Swedish budget system. One reason was that borrowing was no longer based on the distinction between current and capital budgets. See Sweden, Ministry of Finance, Proposal for a Reform of the Swedish Budget System: A Summary of the Report of the Budget Commission Published by the Ministry of Finance (Stockholm, 1974), chapter 10. 7. 151 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING budget generally or are actively considering whether to do so. Many developing countries operate a dual budget system comprising a regular or recurrent budget and a capital or development budget. The World Bank staff has concluded that: ‘‘The dual budget may well be the single most important culprit in the failure to link planning, policy and budgeting, and poor budgetary outcomes. The dual budget is misconceived because it is based on a false premise that capital expenditure by government is more productive than current expenditure. Separating development and recurrent budgets usually leads to the development budget having a lower hurdle for entry. The result is that everyone seeks to redefine their expenditure as capital so it can be included in the development budget. Budget realities are left to the recurrent budget to deal with, and there is no pretension that expenditure proposals relate to policy priorities.’’19 Conclusions It is for reasons such as these that the General Accounting Office issued a report in 1993 that criticized budgeting for capital in terms of depreciation. Although the criticisms were in the context of what is termed ‘‘national capital’’ in this chapter, they apply equally to ‘‘Federal capital.’’ ‘‘Depreciation is not a practical alternative for the Congress and the administration to use in making decisions on the appropriate level of spending intended to enhance the nation’s long-term economic growth for several reasons. Currently, the law requires agencies to have budget authority before they can obligate or spend funds. Unless the full amount of budget authority is appropriated up front, the ability to control decisions when total resources are committed to a particular use is reduced. Appropriating only annual depreciation, which is only a fraction of the total cost of an investment, raises this control issue.’’20 After further study of the role of depreciation in budgeting for national capital, GAO reiterated that conclusion in another study in 1995.21 ‘‘The greatest disadvantage . . . was that depreciation would result in a loss of budgetary control under an obligation-based budgeting system.’’22 Although that study also focused primarily on what is termed ‘‘national capital’’ in this chapter, its analysis applies equally to ‘‘Federal capital.’’ In 1996 GAO expressly extended its conclusions to Federal capital as well. ‘‘If depreciation were recorded in the federal budget in place of cash requirements for capital spending, this would undermine Congress’ ability to control expenditures because only a 19 The World Bank, Public Expenditure Management Handbook (Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 1998), Box 3.11, page 53. 20 GAO, Budget Issues: Incorporating an Investment Component in the Federal Budget, GAO/AIMD-94–40 (November 1993), p. 11. GAO had made the same recommendation in earlier reports but with less extensive analysis. 21 GAO, Budget Issues: The Role of Depreciation in Budgeting for Certain Federal Investments, GAO/AIMD-95–34 (February 1995), pp. 1 and 19–20. 22 Ibid., p. 17. Also see pp. 1–2 and 16–19. small fraction of an asset’s cost would be included in the year when a decision was made to acquire it.’’23 Investment in National Capital A Target for National Investment The Federal Government’s investment in national capital has a much broader and more varied form than its investment in Federal capital. The Government’s goal is to support and accelerate sustainable economic growth for the Nation as a whole and in some instances for specific regions or groups of people. The Government’s investment concerns for the Nation are two-fold: • The effect of its own investment in national capital on the output and income that the economy can produce. • The effect of Federal taxation, borrowing, and other policies on private investment. In its 1993 report, Incorporating an Investment Component in the Federal Budget, the General Accounting Office (GAO) recommended establishing an investment component within the unified budget—but not a separate capital budget or the use of depreciation—for this type of investment.24 GAO defined this investment as ‘‘federal spending, either direct or through grants, that is directly intended to enhance the private sector’s longterm productivity.’’25 To increase investment—both public and private—GAO recommended establishing targets for the level of Federal investment.26 Such a target for investment in national capital would focus attention on policies for growth, encourage a conscious decision about the overall level of growth-enhancing investment, and make it easier to set spending priorities in terms of policy goals for aggregate formation of national capital. GAO reiterated its recommendation in another report in 1995.27 Table 7–10. UNIFIED BUDGET WITH NATIONAL INVESTMENT COMPONENT, 2003 (In billions of dollars) Receipts .................................................................................................... Outlays: National investment ............................................................................. Other .................................................................................................... 2,048 187 1,942 Subtotal, outlays .............................................................................. 2,128 Surplus or deficit (–) ............................................................................ –80 Table 7–10 illustrates the unified budget reorganized as GAO recommends to have a separate component for investment in national capital. This component is roughly estimated to be $187 billion in 2003. It includes infrastructure outlays financed by Federal grants to State and local governments, such as highways and 23 GAO, Budget Issues: Budgeting for Federal Capital, GAO/AIMD-97–5 (November 1996), p. 28. Also see p. 4. 24 Incorporating an Investment Component in the Federal Budget, pp. 1–2, 9–10, and 15. 25 Ibid., pp. 1 and 5. 26 Ibid., pp. 2 and 13–16. 27 The Role of Depreciation in Budgeting for Certain Federal Investments, pp. 2 and 19–20. 152 sewer projects, as well as direct Federal purchases of infrastructure, such as electric power generation equipment. It also includes intangible investment for nondefense research and development, for basic research financed through defense, and for education and training. Much of this expenditure consists of grants and credit assistance to State and local governments, nonprofit organizations, or individuals. Only 11 percent of national investment consists of assets to be owned by the Federal Government. Military investment and some other capital assets as defined previously are excluded, because that investment does not primarily enhance economic growth. A Capital Budget for National Investment Table 7–11 roughly illustrates what a capital budget and operating budget would look like under this definition of investment—although it must be emphasized that this is not GAO’s recommendation. Some proponents of a capital budget would make spending decisions within the framework of such a capital budget and operating budget. But the limitations that apply to the use of depreciation in deciding on investment decisions for Federal capital apply even more strongly in deciding on investment decisions for national capital. Most national capital is neither owned nor controlled by the Federal Government. Such investments are sunk costs completely and can be controlled only by decisions made up front when the Government commits itself to the expenditure.28 In addition to these basic limitations, the definition of investment is more malleable for national capital than Federal capital. Many programs promise long-term intangible benefits to the Nation, and depreciation rates are much more difficult to determine for intangible investment such as research and education than they are for physical investment such as highways and office buildings. These and other definitional questions are hard to resolve. The answers could significantly affect budget decisions, because they would determine whether the budget would record all or only a small part of the cost of a decision when policy makers were comparing the budgetary cost of a project with their judgment of its benefits. The process of reaching an answer with a capital budget would open the door to manipulation, because there would be an incentive to make the operating expenses and deficit look smaller by classifying outlays as investment and using low depreciation rates. This would ‘‘justify’’ more spending by the program or the Government overall.29 28 GAO’s conclusions about the loss of budgetary control that were quoted at the end of the section on Federal capital came from studies that predominantly considered ‘‘national capital.’’ 29These problems are also pointed out in GAO, Incorporating an Investment Component in the Federal Budget, pp. 11–12. They are discussed more extensively with respect to highway grants, research and development, and human capital in GAO, The Role of Depreciation in Budgeting for Certain Federal Investments, pp. 11–14. GAO found no government that budgets for the depreciation of human capital or research and development (except that New Zealand budgets for the depreciation of research and development if it results in a product that is intended to be used or marketed). ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–11. CAPITAL, OPERATING, AND UNIFIED BUDGETS: NATIONAL CAPITAL, 20031 2 (In billions of dollars) Operating Budget Receipts .................................................................................................. Expenses: Depreciation 3 ..................................................................................... Other .................................................................................................. 81 1,942 Subtotal, expenses ........................................................................ 2,023 Surplus or deficit (–) .......................................................................... Capital Budget Income: Depreciation 3 ..................................................................................... Earmarked tax receipts 4 ................................................................... –6 Subtotal, income ............................................................................ Capital expenditures .............................................................................. 113 187 Surplus or deficit (–) .......................................................................... Unified Budget Receipts .................................................................................................. Outlays ................................................................................................... –74 2,048 2,128 Surplus or deficit (–) ..................................................................... –80 2,016 81 32 1 For the purpose of this illustrative table only, education and training outlays are arbitrarily depreciated over 30 years by the straight-line method. This differs from the treatment of education and training elsewhere in this chapter and in Chapter 3. All depreciation estimtes are subject to the limitations explained in Part II of this chapter. Depreciation is measured in terms of current cost, not historical cost. 2 The details of this table do not add to the totals in every case due to rounding. 3 Excludes depreciation on capital financed by earmarked tax receipts allocated to the capital budget. 4 Consists of tax receipts of the highway and airport and airways trust funds, less trust fund outlays for operating expenditures. These are user charges earmarked for financing capital expenditures. A Capital Budget and the Analysis of Saving and Investment Data from the Federal budget may be classified in many different ways, including analyses of the Government’s direct effects on saving and investment. As Parts I and II of this chapter have shown, the unified budget provides data that can be used to calculate Federal investment outlays and federally financed capital stocks. However, the budget totals themselves do not make this distinction. In particular, the budget surplus or deficit does not measure the Government’s contribution to the nation’s net saving (i.e., saving net of depreciation). A capital budget, it is sometimes contended, is needed for this purpose. This purpose, however, is fulfilled by the Federal sector of the national income and product accounts (NIPA) for Government purchases of structures, equipment, and software. The NIPA Federal sector measures the impact of Federal current receipts, current expenditures, and the current surplus or deficit on the national economy. It is part of an integrated set of measures of aggregate U.S. economic activity that is prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the Department of Commerce in order to measure gross domestic product (GDP), the income generated in its production, and many other variables used in macroeconomic analysis. The NIPA Federal sector for recent periods is published monthly in the Survey of Current Business with separate releases for historical data. Estimates for the President’s proposed budget through the budget year 7. FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING are normally published in the budget documents. The NIPA translation of the budget, rather than the budget itself, is ordinarily used by economists to analyze the effect of Government fiscal policy on the aggregate economy.30 The NIPA Federal sector distinguishes between government purchases of goods and services for consumption and investment.31 It is a current account or an operating account for the Federal Government and accordingly shows current receipts and current expenditures. It excludes expenditures for structures, equipment, and software owned by the Federal Government; it includes depreciation on the federally owned stock of structures, equipment, and software as a proxy for the services of capital assets consumed in production and thus as part of the Federal Government’s current expenditures. It applies this treatment to a comprehensive definition of federally owned structures, equipment, and software, both defense and nondefense, similar to the definition of Federal capital in this chapter.32 The NIPA ‘‘current surplus or deficit’’ of the Federal Government thus measures the Government’s direct contribution to the Nation’s net saving (given the definition of investment that is employed). The 2001 Federal Government current account surplus was reduced $1.3 billion by including depreciation rather than gross investment, because depreciation of federally owned structures, equipment, and software was more than gross investment. The 2003 Federal current account surplus is estimated to be increased $2.5 billion.33 A capital budget is not needed to capture this effect. Borrowing to Finance a Capital Budget A further issue traditionally raised by a capital budget is the financing of capital expenditures. Some have argued that the Government ought to balance the operating budget and borrow to finance the capital budget— capital expenditures less depreciation. The rationale is that if the Government borrows for net investment and the rate of return exceeds the interest rate, the additional debt does not add a burden onto future generations. Instead, the burden of paying interest on the debt and repaying its principal is spread over the gen30 See chapter 17 of this volume, ‘‘National Income and Product Accounts,’’ for the NIPA current account of the Federal Government based on the budget actuals and estimates for 2001-03, and for a discussion of the NIPA Federal sector and its relationship to the budget. 31 This distinction is also made in the national accounts of most other countries and in the System of National Accounts (SNA), which is guidance prepared by the United Nations and other international organizations. Definitions of investment vary. For example, the SNA does not include the purchase of military equipment as investment. 32 The treatment of investment (except for the recent recognition of software) in the NIPA Federal sector is explained in Survey of Current Business, ‘‘Preview of the Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts: Recognition of Government Investment and Incorporation of a New Methodology for Calculating Depreciation’’ (September 1995), pp. 33–39. As is the case of private sector investment, government investment does not include expenditures on research and development or on education and training. Government purchases of structures, equipment, and software remain a part of gross domestic product (GDP) as a separate component. The NIPA State and local government account is defined in the same way and includes depreciation on structures, equipment, and software owned by State and local governments that were financed by Federal grants as well as by their own resources. Depreciation is not displayed as a separate line item in the summary tables of the government account: depreciation on general government capital assets is included as part of government ‘‘consumption expenditures’’; and depreciation on the capital assets of government enterprises is subtracted in calculating the ‘‘current surplus of government enterprises.’’ 33 See actuals and estimates for 2001–03 in Table 17–2 of chapter 17 of this volume, ‘‘National Income and Product Accounts.’’ 153 erations that will benefit from the investment. The additional debt is ‘‘justified’’ by the additional assets. As this argument has traditionally been framed, it might appear as though it did not always apply. The Government has had a large surplus for several years, which was mostly used to repay Federal debt held by the public; and although a deficit is estimated in 2002 and 2003, largely due to the recession and the response to the terrorist attacks, the budget estimates a return to surplus in 2005. When the Government has a surplus, additional expenditure is generally financed by repaying less debt rather than borrowing more. However, the argument about borrowing for investment is fundamentally about the proper target for Federal debt and whether that target should be higher if the Government has net investment. If the Government has deficits financed by selling debt, should it borrow more than otherwise because of its net investment? Or if the Government has surpluses used to repay debt, should it repay less than otherwise because of its net investment? This section follows the traditional way of discussing the issue by referring to ‘‘borrowing to finance net investment.’’ However, for the present analysis, ‘‘borrowing more’’ is equivalent to ‘‘repaying less debt.’’ This argument about financing capital expenditures is at best a justification to borrow to finance net investment, after depreciation is subtracted from gross outlays, not to borrow to finance gross investment. To the extent that capital is used up during the year, there are no additional assets to justify additional debt. If the Government borrows to finance gross investment, the additional debt exceeds the additional capital assets. The Government is thus adding onto the amount of future debt service without providing the additional capital that would produce the additional income needed to service that debt. This justification, furthermore, requires that depreciation be measured in terms of the current replacement cost, not the historical cost. Current cost depreciation is needed in order to measure all activities in the budget on a consistent basis, since other outlays and receipts are automatically measured in the prices of the current year. Current cost depreciation is also needed to obtain a valid measure of net investment. This requires that the addition to the capital stock from new purchases and the subtraction from depreciation on existing assets both be measured in the prices of the same year. When prices change, historical cost depreciation does not measure the extent to which the capital stock is used up each year. As a broad generalization, Tables 7–9 and 7–11 suggest that this rationale would currently justify some change in borrowing (or debt repayment) under the two capital budgets roughly illustrated in this chapter, but for Federal capital the change would not be much. For Federal capital, Table 7–9 indicates that current cost depreciation is less than gross investment for Federal capital—the capital budget deficit is $18 billion. The rationale of borrowing to finance net investment would 154 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES justify the Federal Government borrowing this amount ($18 billion) and no more to finance its investment in Federal capital. For national capital, Table 7–11 indicates that current cost depreciation (plus the excise taxes earmarked to finance capital expenditures for highways and airports and airways 34) is less than gross investment—the capital budget deficit is $74 billion. The rationale of borrowing to finance net investment would justify the Federal Government borrowing this amount ($74 billion) and no more to finance its investment in national capital.35 Even with depreciation calculated in current cost, the rationale for borrowing to finance net investment is not persuasive. The Federal Government, unlike a business or household, is responsible not only for its own affairs but also for the general welfare of the Nation. To maintain and accelerate national economic growth and development, the Government needs to encourage private investment as well as its own national investment. A high level of net national saving is needed to meet the demographic and other challenges expected in the decades ahead. To the extent that the Government finances its own investment in a way that results in lower private investment, the net increase of total investment in the economy is less than the increase from the additional Federal capital outlays alone. The net increase in total investment is significantly less if the Federal investment is financed by borrowing than if it is financed by taxation, because borrowing primarily draws upon the saving available for private (and State and local government) investment whereas much of taxation instead comes out of private consumption. Therefore, the net effect of Federal investment on economic growth would be reduced if it were financed by borrowing. This would be the result even if the rate of return on Federal investment was higher than the rate of return on private investment. For example, if a Federal investment that yielded a 15 percent rate of return crowded out private investment that yielded 10 percent, the net social return would still be positive but it would only be 5 percent.36 The present budget estimates a deficit this year largely due to the recession and the response to the terrorist attacks, but it also estimates a return to surplus in 2005. This will prevent the Government from crowding out private investment once the economy is stronger. A capital budget is not a justification to relax the budget discipline that will contribute to this goal. Part IV: SUPPLEMENTAL PHYSICAL CAPITAL INFORMATION The Federal Capital Investment Program Information Act of 1984 (Title II of Public Law 98–501; hereafter referred to as the Act) requires that the budget include projections of Federal physical capital spending and information regarding recent assessments of public civilian physical capital needs. This section is submitted to fulfill that requirement. This part is organized in two major sections. The first section projects Federal outlays for public physical capital and the second section presents information regarding public civilian physical capital needs. Projections of Federal Outlays For Public Physical Capital Federal public physical capital spending is defined here to be the same as the ‘‘major public physical capital investment’’ category in Part I of this chapter. It covers spending for construction and rehabilitation, acquisition of major equipment, and other physical assets. This section excludes outlays for human capital, such as the conduct of education and training, and outlays for the conduct of research and development. The projections are done generally on a current services basis, which means they are based on 2002 enacted appropriations and adjusted for inflation in later years. 34 The capital budget deficit would be about $17 billion larger if current cost depreciation were used instead of earmarked excise taxes for investment in highways and airports and airways. 35 This discussion abstracts from non-budgetary transactions that affect Federal borrowing requirements, such as changes in the Treasury operating cash balance and the net financing The current services concept is discussed in Chapter 15, ‘‘Current Services Estimates.’’ Federal public physical capital spending was $144.8 billion in 2001 and is projected to increase to $190.0 billion by 2011 on a current services basis. The largest components are for national defense and for roadways and bridges, which together accounted for more than three-fifths of Federal public physical capital spending in 2001. Table 7–12 shows projected current services outlays for Federal physical capital by the major categories specified in the Act. Total Federal outlays for transportation-related physical capital were $38.9 billion in 2001, and current services outlays are estimated to increase to $53.2 billion by 2011. Outlays for nondefense housing and buildings were $13.5 billion in 2001 and are estimated to be $18.4 billion in 2011. Physical capital outlays for other nondefense categories were $28.7 billion in 2001 and are projected to be $38.5 billion by 2011. For national defense, this spending was $63.7 billion in 2001 and is estimated on a current services basis to be $79.9 billion in 2011. Table 7–13 shows current services projections on a constant dollar basis, using fiscal year 1996 as the base year. disbursements of the direct loan and guaranteed loan financing accounts. See chapter 13 of this volume, ‘‘Federal Borrowing and Debt,’’ and the explanation of Table 13–2. 36 GAO considered deficit financing of investment but did not recommend it. See Incorporating an Investment Component in the Federal Budget, pp. 12–13. 7. 155 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Table 7–12. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR FEDERAL PHYSICAL CAPITAL SPENDING (In billions of dollars) 2001 Actual Nondefense: Transportation-related categories: Roadways and bridges ................................................................................... Airports and airway facilities ......................................................................... Mass transportation systems ......................................................................... Railroads ........................................................................................................ Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 27.2 4.4 6.8 0.6 28.9 5.3 6.2 0.9 30.9 6.0 6.4 0.7 32.1 6.4 6.4 0.7 33.0 6.7 6.4 0.7 33.8 7.0 6.2 0.7 34.6 7.1 6.9 0.7 35.3 7.2 7.1 0.7 36.0 7.4 7.2 0.7 36.7 7.5 7.3 0.8 37.4 7.7 7.5 0.8 Subtotal, transportation .................................................................................. Housing and buildings categories:. Federally assisted housing ............................................................................ Hospitals ......................................................................................................... Public buildings 1 ............................................................................................ 38.9 41.3 44.0 45.7 46.7 47.8 49.3 50.3 51.3 52.3 53.2 7.9 1.8 3.8 9.1 1.9 5.6 8.2 2.0 5.8 8.7 2.1 6.4 8.8 2.2 6.1 9.3 2.3 6.2 8.4 2.3 6.3 8.4 2.4 6.4 8.6 2.4 6.5 8.8 2.5 6.7 9.0 2.6 6.8 Subtotal, housing and buildings .................................................................... Other nondefense categories: Wastewater treatment and related facilities ................................................. Water resources projects .............................................................................. Space and communications facilities ............................................................ Energy programs ........................................................................................... Community development programs .............................................................. Other nondefense .......................................................................................... 13.5 16.5 15.9 17.1 17.1 17.8 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 3.3 4.8 6.1 1.6 5.6 7.3 3.1 4.9 4.9 2.1 6.1 9.3 3.3 4.7 5.3 1.9 7.0 9.2 3.3 4.7 5.6 1.9 8.4 9.8 3.4 4.9 5.7 1.9 8.3 9.8 3.4 5.1 5.7 2.0 8.2 10.4 3.6 5.1 6.1 2.0 8.3 10.6 3.7 5.2 6.2 2.0 8.4 10.9 3.7 5.3 6.5 2.0 8.5 11.1 3.8 5.5 6.8 2.1 8.7 11.4 3.8 5.6 6.5 2.1 8.9 11.7 Subtotal, other nondefense ........................................................................... 28.7 30.5 31.5 33.8 34.0 34.7 35.6 36.4 37.3 38.2 38.5 Subtotal, nondefense ..................................................................................... National defense ...................................................................................................... 81.2 63.7 88.3 69.1 91.4 69.9 96.6 71.6 97.8 73.4 100.3 74.8 101.9 76.0 104.0 75.7 106.1 77.0 108.5 78.4 110.1 79.9 Total .......................................................................................................................... 144.8 157.4 161.3 168.2 171.1 175.1 177.9 179.6 183.2 186.9 190.0 1 Excludes outlays for public buildings that are included in other categories in this table. 156 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 7–13. CURRENT SERVICES OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR FEDERAL PHYSICAL CAPITAL SPENDING (In billions of constant 1996 dollars) 2001 Actual Nondefense: Transportation-related categories: Roadways and bridges ................................................................................................... Airports and airway facilities ............................................................................................ Mass transportation systems ......................................................................................... Railroads .......................................................................................................................... Estimate 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 24.8 4.2 6.2 0.6 25.8 5.0 5.5 0.9 26.9 5.4 5.6 0.7 27.3 5.7 5.5 0.7 27.3 5.8 5.3 0.6 27.3 6.0 5.0 0.6 Subtotal, transportation ................................................................................................ Housing and buildings categories: Federally assisted housing .............................................................................................. Hospitals ........................................................................................................................... Public buildings 1 .............................................................................................................. 35.7 37.1 38.6 39.1 39.0 39.0 7.3 1.8 3.7 8.2 1.8 5.4 7.1 1.9 5.5 7.4 2.0 5.9 7.3 2.0 5.7 7.6 2.0 5.6 Subtotal, housing and buildings .................................................................................. Other nondefense categories: Wastewater treatment and related facilities .................................................................. Water resources projects ............................................................................................... Space and communications facilities ............................................................................. Energy programs ............................................................................................................ Community development programs ............................................................................... Other nondefense ............................................................................................................ 12.8 15.4 14.5 15.3 15.0 15.2 3.0 4.8 6.1 1.5 5.1 7.2 2.8 4.8 4.8 2.0 5.5 8.9 2.8 4.5 5.0 1.9 6.1 8.7 2.8 4.5 5.3 1.8 7.2 9.1 2.8 4.5 5.2 1.8 6.9 8.9 2.8 4.6 5.2 1.8 6.6 9.2 Subtotal, other nondefense ......................................................................................... 27.8 28.8 29.1 30.6 30.2 30.2 Subtotal, nondefense ....................................................................................................... National defense ....................................................................................................................... 76.3 65.2 81.3 69.2 82.2 68.8 85.0 69.2 84.2 69.7 84.4 69.8 Total .......................................................................................................................................... 141.5 150.5 151.0 154.3 153.9 154.1 1 Excludes outlays for public buildings that are included in other categories in this table. Public Civilian Capital Needs Assessments The Act requires information regarding the state of major Federal infrastructure programs, including highways and bridges, airports and airway facilities, mass transit, railroads, federally assisted housing, hospitals, water resources projects, and space and communications investments. Funding levels, long-term projections, policy issues, needs assessments, and critiques, are required for each category. Capital needs assessments change little from year to year, in part due to the long-term nature of the facilities themselves, and in part due to the consistency of the analytical techniques used to develop the assessments and the comparatively steady but slow changes in underlying demographics. As a result, the practice has arisen in reports in previous years to refer to earlier discussions, where the relevant information had been carefully presented and changes had been minimal. The needs assessment material in reports of earlier years is incorporated this year largely by reference to earlier editions and by reference to other needs assessments. The needs analyses, their major components, and their critical evaluations have been fully covered in past Supplements, such as the 1990 Supplement to Special Analysis D. It should be noted that the needs assessment data referenced here have not been determined on the basis of cost-benefit analysis. Rather, the data reflect the level of investment necessary to meet a predefined standard (such as maintenance of existing highway conditions). The estimates do not address whether the benefits of each investment would actually be greater than its cost or whether there are more cost-effective alternatives to capital investment, such as initiatives to reduce demand or use existing assets more efficiently. Before investing in physical capital, it is necessary to compare the cost of each project with its estimated benefits, within the overall constraints on Federal spending. 7. 157 FEDERAL INVESTMENT SPENDING AND CAPITAL BUDGETING Significant Factors Affecting Infrastructure Needs Assessments Highways 1. Projected annual average growth in travel to the year 2017 ................................................................................... 2. Annual cost to maintain 1997 physical conditions on highways .............................................................................. 3. Annual cost to maintain 1997 physical conditions on bridges .................................................................................. 2.16 percent $50.8 billion (1997 dollars) $5.8 billion (1997 dollars) Airports and Airway Facilities 1. Airports in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems with scheduled passenger traffic .......................... 2. Air traffic control towers .............................................................................................................................................. 3. Airport development eligible under airport improvement program for period 1993–1997 .................................... 528 451 $29.7 billion ($9.4 billion for capacity) (1992 dollars) Mass Transportation Systems 1. Yearly cost to maintain condition and performance of rail facilities over a period of 20 years ............................ 2. Yearly cost to replace and maintain the urban, rural, and special services bus fleet and facilities ..................... $7.7 billion (1997 dollars) $3.1 billion (1997 dollars) Wastewater Treatment 1. Total remaining needs of sewage treatment facilities ............................................................................................... 2. Total Federal expenditures under the Clean Water Act of 1972 through 2001 ...................................................... 3. The population served by centralized treatment facilities: percentage that benefits from at least secondary sewage treatment systems ........................................................................................................................................... 4. States and territories served by State Revolving Funds ........................................................................................... $128 billion (1996 dollars) $79 billion 99 percent 51 Housing 1. Total unsubsidized very low income renter households with worst case needs (4.9 million*) A. In severely substandard units ................................................................................................................................. B. With a rent burden greater than 50 percent ......................................................................................................... * The total is less than the sum because some renter families have both problems. 0.5 million 4.6 million Indian Health Service (IHS) Health Care Facilities 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. IHS hospital occupancy rates (2000) ........................................................................................................................... Average length of stay, IHS hospitals (days) (2001) ................................................................................................. Hospital admissions (2001) .......................................................................................................................................... Outpatient visits (2001) ............................................................................................................................................... Eligible population (2001) ............................................................................................................................................ 39.9 percent 4.1 63,560 7,772,926 1,540,129 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospitals (2002) Medical Centers ............................................................................................................................................................ Outpatient clinics ......................................................................................................................................................... Domiciliaries ................................................................................................................................................................. Vet centers .................................................................................................................................................................... Nursing homes .............................................................................................................................................................. 172 852 43 206 137 Water Resources Water resources projects include navigation (deepwater ports and inland waterways); flood and storm damage protection; irrigation; hydropower; municipal and industrial water supply; recreation; fish and wildlife mitigation, enhancement, and restoration; and soil conservation. Potential water resources investment needs typically consist of the set of projects that pass both a benefit-cost test for economic feasibility and a test for environmental acceptability. In the case of fish and wildlife mitigation or restoration projects, the set of eligible projects includes those that pass a cost-effectiveness test. Investment Needs Assessment References General U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (ACIR). High Performance Public Works: A New Federal Infrastructure Investment Strategy for America, Washington, D.C., 1993. U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (ACIR). Toward a Federal Infrastructure Strategy: Issues and Options, A–120, Washington, D.C., 1992. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Living Within Constraints: An Emerging Vision for High Performance Public Works. Concluding Report of the Federal Infrastructure Strategy Programs. Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA, 1995 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, A Consolidated Performance Report on the Nation’s Public Works: An Update. Report of the Federal Infrastructure Strategy Program. Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA, 1995. Surface Transportation Department of Transportation. 1999 Status of the Nation’s Surface Transportation System: Conditions and 158 Performance: Report to Congress. 2000. This report discusses roads, bridges, and mass transit. Airports and Airways Facilities Federal Aviation Administration. National Airspace Systems Capital Investment Plan: 2003–2007, February 2002. Federally Assisted Housing U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Planning and Development, Tabulations of 1993 American Housing Survey. Indian Health Care Facilities Indian Health Service. Priority System for Health Facility Construction (Document Number 0820B or 2046T). September 19, 1981. FY 2001 Indian Health Service and Tribal Hospital Inpatient Statistics. Office of Audit, Office of Inspector General, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Review of Health Facilities Construction Program. Indian Health ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Service Proposed Replacement Hospital at Shiprock, New Mexico (CIN A–09–88–00008). June, 1989. Office of Technology Assessment. Indian Health Care (OTA 09H 09290). April, 1986. Wastewater Treatment Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water. 1996 Needs Survey Report to Congress. (EPA 832–R–87–003). Water Resources National Council on Public Works Improvement. The Nation’s Public Works, Washington, D.C., May, 1987. See ‘‘Defining the Issues—Needs Studies,’’ Chapter II; Report on Water Resources, Shilling et al., and Report on Water Supply, Miller Associates. Frederick, Kenneth D., Balancing Water Demands with Supplies: The Role of Demand Management in a World of Increasing Scarcity, Report for the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Washington, D.C. 1992. 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT I. INTRODUCTION Technological innovation and scientific discovery generated much of the Nation’s economic growth over the last 50 years, creating millions of jobs, and improving the quality of life. For example, about two-thirds of the 80 percent gain in economic productivity since 1995 can be attributed to information technology. This innovation and discovery was possible because of both public and private investment in research and development (R&D). The United States’ investment in R&D is unparalleled. Our country’s investment in R&D plays a major role in the state of the world’s science and technology. Not only does the U.S. continue to lead the world in total R&D spending, but, as the most recent data indicate in the accompanying figure, U.S. R&D expenditures—combining private and public—exceed those of the rest of the G–7 countries combined. The Nation’s investments in innovation and discovery are also vital to strengthening our capabilities to combat terrorism and defend our country. The President’s 2003 Budget focuses on winning the war against terrorism and securing the homeland, while moderating the growth in overall spending. These priorities have affected the way R&D is being funded and directed, as well as the way the results of R&D are being used. Within the federal government’s research portfolio, agencies have been directing many of their programs to assist in the defense effort. For example, one focus of R&D at the Department of Defense (DOD) is to improve detection of biological and chemical threats; the National Institutes of Health (NIH) is financing and conducting research to discover new disease treatments; and the Department of Transportation (DOT) is performing R&D to improve aviation security technology. Investments today in R&D will translate into the new capabilities for tomorrow for detecting threats to our security, defending ourselves against them, and responding to emergencies should they arise. Chart 8-1. U.S. R&D Expenditures Exceed Those of the Rest of the G-7 Nations Combined In billions of dollars (1999) 300 250 Canada Italy United Kingdom 200 150 United States France Germany 100 50 Japan 0 Source: National Science Foundation 159 160 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES If adopted, this budget will provide the highest level of funding for R&D in history, but the focus should not be on how much we are spending, but rather on what we are getting for our investment. Our current priorities also call for redoubling our efforts to meet the President’s charge that we improve the management, performance, and results of the federal government. A dedicated effort to improve the overall quality of the total investment in R&D by strengthening effective programs and fixing lower performers through reforms or reallocations will increase the productivity of the federal R&D portfolio and transcend the all-toocommon attention given to year-to-year marginal increases or decreases. Additionally, while it can be difficult to assess the outcomes of some research programs—many of which may not have a measurable effect for decades—it is important to establish meaningful goals for them and to measure annual progress toward them and performance in appropriate ways. Towards that end, the Administration is developing investment criteria for R&D programs across the government. Finally, the government must coordinate interrelated and complementary R&D efforts among agencies, combining programs where appropriate to improve effectiveness and eliminating redundant programs, to leverage these resources to the greatest effect. The federal government has multiple roles in achieving these goals. The government should be strong in II. its support of basic research, as it is the source of tomorrow’s discoveries and new capabilities, and it will fuel further gains in economic productivity, quality of life, and national security. The government should also support those areas of applied research and development critical to the missions of the federal agencies, particularly in priority areas that private sources are not motivated to support. If the private sector cannot profit from the development of a particular technology, federal funding may be appropriate if the technology in question addresses a National priority or otherwise provides societal benefits. Finally, the federal government should help stimulate private investment and provide the proper incentives for private sources to continue to fuel the discovery and innovation of tomorrow. The Administration plans to do this through the permanent extension of the Research and Experimentation tax credit. To these ends, this chapter discusses how the Administration will improve the performance of R&D programs through new investment principles and other means that encourage and reinforce quality research. The chapter also highlights the priority areas proposed for R&D agencies and the coordinated efforts among them. The chapter concludes with details of R&D funding data across the federal government. IMPROVING PERFORMANCE OF R&D PROGRAMS R&D is critically important for keeping our Nation economically competitive. It will help solve the challenges we face in health, defense, energy, and the environment. As a result, and consistent with the Government Performance and Results Act, every federal R&D dollar must be invested as effectively as possible. R&D Investment Principles The Administration is improving the effectiveness of the federal government’s investments in R&D by sub- jecting investment decisions to transparent investment criteria. R&D requires special consideration in the context of performance assessment, as many R&D outcomes—especially those of basic research—may not be obvious for years or decades. Nevertheless, the government must improve its basis for deciding among R&D investments, including applying specific criteria that projects must meet and clear milestones for measuring performance. 161 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING The Department of Energy (DOE) R&D Performance Pilot: As announced in the President’s Management Agenda, the Administration developed investment criteria using DOE’s applied energy R&D programs as a pilot. These are the Fossil Energy, Nuclear Science and Technology, and Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy programs. The Administration is using the R&D criteria to recommend funding levels for the Department’s applied R&D programs that support the President’s National Energy Policy report. In the first year of the pilot project, application of the criteria indicated that data on the expected performance of many R&D projects are not readily available. For instance, using one energy-based metric, some of 19 Fossil Energy R&D programs failed to report any performance data at all, and those that did tended to report goals rather than the current cost performance of technologies under development. The Department, in conjunction with the Office of Management and Budget, is working to improve these performance metrics and data. DOE will improve the grading method to distinguish among programs more effectively. In this first year, about 80 percent of the criteria graded by DOE achieved a maximum score. Despite these initial problems, the criteria provided enough guidance to determine some opportunities for redirecting funds. In the fossil energy program, research to control greenhouse gases was increased, since there is little incentive for private investment in this area. Conversely, areas such as oil drilling technology, where the industry has the financing and incentive to do its own research, are funded at lower levels. Within DOE’s renewable energy portfolio, wind power research will shift focus from technologies for high wind-speed areas to cost-effective technologies for low wind-speed areas, which are further from commercial viability and show great promise for greatly expanding the land area that can be used to capture this renewable energy resource. DOE will continue to work to integrate the R&D criteria more meaningfully into their budget formulation process in the coming year. Based on lessons learned from the DOE pilot project and other inputs from experts and stakeholders, the Administration will develop R&D investment criteria to assist with budget allocation decisions at major R&D agencies starting in the 2004 budget process. While the specific criteria to be used in 2004 are still under development, several fundamental principles motivate and will guide them, including: • Federal R&D priorities should be consistent with priorities identified by the President. • Federal R&D programs should focus on activities that require a federal presence to attain national goals. To avoid public funds displacing private investment, federally funded R&D should focus primarily on areas where the private sector cannot capture the benefits of the R&D. • Programs and proposals should have thorough plans for the research, with clear goals and planned end points or off-ramps, when appropriate. • To maximize the quality of the research process and the efficiency of the public investment, research programs should use a competitive, meritbased process where appropriate. Exceptions must be well justified. • Agencies and programs judged to be outstanding in conducting, awarding, and managing R&D should be identified and supported. • Less successful programs should follow successful models to achieve improvements, or they should be reduced or moved to agencies where they can be managed more effectively. • Resources for new R&D priorities will be increased by reducing or eliminating the funding for pro- grams that have completed their mission or that are redundant or obsolete. The Administration recognizes that researcher time is best spent on research and that added administrative burden for researchers is counterproductive. During the development and implementation of the investment criteria, the Administration will take the necessary steps to minimize their administrative burden and maximize their utility. The Administration has been studying management strategies for R&D that some agencies use to promote particularly effective programs. OMB and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) are developing a common analytical framework to assess the strengths and weaknesses of R&D programs across agencies, in order to identify and apply good R&D management practices across the government. For example, some agencies have more deliberate prioritization process, while other agencies have more experience estimating the returns of R&D and assessing the impact after the fact. The process of developing this framework will be iterative, involving the research agencies and the science and technology community. Due to the distinct goals and methods of basic research versus applied research and development, separate criteria are being developed. The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), OMB, and the federal agencies will work with the science and technology community to define helpful criteria and implement them effectively in preparation of the 2004 budget. Using some of the principles identified above, the President’s Budget begins to improve the performance of research programs across the government. 162 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES As an example of improving a program, the Administration is reforming the Department of Education’s Office of Educational Research and Improvement (OERI) by implementing a more rigorous grant solicitation and peer review process. The Department is also developing a reauthorization proposal for OERI that should allow it to improve the quality, objectivity, coordination, and focus of the Department’s research activities. The budget transfers some R&D programs between agencies. For example, the transfer of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Toxic Substances Hydrology program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Sea Grant program to NSF’s more competitive, peerreview award process will improve the scientific rigor of the research. The peer review process allows the assessment of merit by other experts in the field, while competition ensures that the grants ultimately awarded have demonstrated their merit, over other competitive proposals. Research Earmarks The Administration supports awarding research funds based on merit review through a competitive process. Such a system ensures that the best research is supported. Research earmarks—in general the assignment of money during the appropriation process for use only by a specific organization or project—are counter to the competitive process of selection based on merit. The use of earmarks improperly signals to potential investigators that there is an alternative to creating quality research proposals for merit-based consideration, including the use of political influence or by appealing to parochial interests. Chart 8-2. Funding for Academic Earmarks In millions of dollars 2,000 1,668 1,500 1,044 1,000 797 440 500 528 296 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education Moreover, the practice of earmarking funds directly to colleges and universities for specific research projects has expanded dramatically in recent years. Despite broad-based support for merit review, earmarks for specific projects at colleges and universities have yet again broken prior records. According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, academic earmarks have steadily increased from a level of $296 million in 1996 to an estimated $1.67 billion in 2001. In 2001 alone, earmarked funds to colleges and universities increased nearly 60 percent (see figure). These funds represent an increasing share of the total federal funding to colleges and universities, which increasingly displaces competitive research, awarded by merit. For example, in 1996, academic earmarks accounted for 2.5 percent of all federal funding to colleges and universities. By 2001, the earmarked share of federal academic funding had increased to a high of 9.4 percent. While comparable figures for 2002 are not yet available, the assessment of research allocation in Table 8–5 at the 163 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING end of this chapter suggests that this trend has continued to grow for non-defense agencies in 2002. Some argue that earmarks help spread the research money to the states that would receive less research funding through other means. However, The Chronicle of Higher Education reports that this is not the main role they play. In 1999, for example, only a small share of academic earmark funding went to the states with the smallest shares of federal research funds. In fact, the 25 states with the largest shares of federal research dollars also received 74 percent of the earmark funding to colleges and universities. Meanwhile, earmarks help some rich institutions become richer. In 1999, 13 of the 25 institutions receiving the most earmarks were also members of the top 100 for total research funds. Table 8–7 provides a list of the 30 colleges and universities that received the most earmarked funding in 2001, according to The Chronicle of Higher Education (results for 2002 are not available at this time). There is a tendency to confuse a high budget number appropriated for an agency with a good outcome for the agency, but this is often not the case. Often, earmarks drive these increases. Worse yet, the flood of earmarks within that level displaces important competitive programs that have to be deferred or terminated. For example, in 2002 appropriations, earmarked funding for constructing a low priority propulsion lab at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) was paid for by cutting the very research that the lab is to support. Earmarks for research facilities can come at the cost of operations or research at those facilities. For example, earmarks in DOE’s Office of Science increased 60 percent from 2001 to 2002. As a result, DOE has only the resources to operate its scientific user facilities at approximately 75 percent of the optimally available hours. Had these funds been allocated to facility operations as needed, a broader segment of the research community could have benefited, and the return on the federal investment in these facilities would have been higher. Some proponents of earmarking assert that earmarks provide a means of funding unique projects that would not be recognized by the conventional peer-review process. On the contrary, a number of agencies have procedures and programs to reward out-of-the-box thinking in the research they award. For example, DOD’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency seeks out high risk, high payoff scientific proposals, and NSF program managers set aside a share of funding for higherrisk projects in which they see high potential. Many earmarks have little to do with an agency’s mission. For example, Congress earmarked DOD’s 2002 budget to fund research on a wide range of diseases, including breast cancer, ovarian cancer, prostate cancer, diabetes, and osteoporosis. Funding at DOD for such research totals over $600 million in that year alone. While research on these diseases is very important, it is not unique to the U.S. military and can be carried out and coordinated better within civil medical research agencies, without disruption to the military mission. The Administration is working with the scientific community to discourage the practice of research earmarks. Academic organizations, such as the Association of American Universities, and colleges and universities, including Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Washington University in St. Louis, have stated that they share the Administration’s preference for merit review and recognize the problems with academic earmarks. The Administration will continue to work with such organizations and universities and the Congress to achieve our common objectives. III. PRIORITIES FOR FEDERAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT The 2003 budget requests record levels for federal R&D ($111.8 billion, an 8 percent increase, as shown in Table 8–2). The Administration recognizes that investments in research—especially in basic research— will lead to the discoveries and technologies of tomorrow. The 2003 budget includes an emphasis on basic research, increasing associated funding across the agencies by $2.0 billion (or 9 percent). In a 1995 report from the National Academy of Sciences, the scientific community proposed a ‘‘Federal Science and Technology’’ (FS&T) budget. Such a compilation highlights activities central to the creation of new knowledge and technologies more consistently and accurately than the traditional R&D data collection reported in Table 8–2. As shown in Table 8–3, the 2003 budget requests $57.0 billion for FS&T (a 9 percent increase). The resulting FS&T budget is less than half of the total federal spending on R&D, though FS&T also includes some funding that is not R&D. Discussions of agency efforts in this section include the FS&T values from Table 8–3. Some in the science community call for greater ‘‘balance’’ across research agencies and disciplines, at times suggesting that all agencies should receive increases similar to those that NIH and other agencies have received. However, ‘‘balance’’ by that definition makes prioritization impossible. Increases in our top-priority research areas should logically be greater than increases for other areas. Instead, the 2003 budget provides funding for top priority areas, while ensuring a good mix of basic, applied, and development in many fields of science and technology across the federal agencies. The Administration believes the focus should not be on how much we are spending, but rather on what we are getting for our investment and how well it is being managed. Over the past year, OSTP and OMB have worked with the federal agencies and the science community to identify top priorities for federal R&D. Some are in areas critical to the Nation, such as information technologies. Some are in emerging fields, such as nanotechnology, that will provide new breakthroughs 164 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES across many fields. Others, such as anti-terrorism R&D, address newly recognized needs. The discussion below identifies four multi-agency priority areas, followed by highlights of agency-specific R&D priorities. Multi-Agency R&D Priorities The 2003 budget targets investments in important research that benefits from improved coordination across multiple agencies. Two of these multi-agency initiatives—nanotechnology and information technology R&D—have separate coordination offices under the auspices of NSF to ensure coordinated strategic planning and implementation. Both initiatives will be producing integrated plans to describe detailed research proposals for 2003. The Administration is in the process of forming new organizations and strengthening interagency coordination for two priority areas—anti-terrorism and climate change R&D. The Administration will continue to consider other areas of critical need that could benefit in the future from improved focus and coordination among agencies. Anti-terrorism R&D: Scientific and technological advances will be used to prevent and respond to possible future terrorist activities at home and abroad. Potential antiterrorism R&D applications span a wide range, including safeguarding the mail, developing new vaccines and air safety systems, and creating advanced materials and enhanced building designs. Most aspects of our national life are being assessed for vulnerabilities to terrorists. Often, the scientific and technological community will be asked to devise solutions in cost-effective ways that do not impinge on our way of life. Over the next six months, OMB, OSTP, and the Office of Homeland Security will be working through the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to develop a coordinated, interagency R&D plan for antiterrorism. This budget identifies many antiterrorism R&D priorities (such as rapid detection and verification of biological threats). The NSTC plan will chart a comprehensive and integrated course for these efforts as well as provide cross-agency budgetary information. Networking and Information Technology R&D: The budget provides $1.9 billion (a 3 percent increase) for the multi-agency Networking and Information Technology Research and Development Program (NITRD). By coordinating key advanced information technology research efforts, the NITRD agencies leverage resources to make broader advances in computing and networking than a single agency could attain. For example, the NITRD agencies develop and deploy computing platforms and software that perform over a trillion computing operations per second, to support advanced federal research in the biomedical sciences, earth and space sciences, physics, materials science and engineering, and related scientific fields. Accomplishments include: development of end-to-end optical fiber networking, providing vast improvements in bandwidth and network security for research and commercial ap- plications; new technologies enabling cluster, or ‘‘grid,’’ computing, providing for the first time access to highperformance computation for scientific researchers nationwide; technologies for network security protection such as intrusion detection and risk and vulnerability analyses; and technologies for archiving, managing, and using large-scale information repositories, or ‘‘digital libraries.’’ In 2003, research emphasizes include network ‘‘trust’’ (security, reliability, and privacy); high-assurance software and systems; micro- and embedded sensor technologies; revolutionary architectures to reduce the cost, size, and power requirements of high end computing platforms; and social and economic impacts of information technology. Nanotechnology R&D: The budget provides $679 million for the multi-agency National Nanotechnology Initiative, a 17 percent increase over 2002. The initiative focuses on long-term research on the manipulation of matter down to the atomic and molecular levels, giving us unprecedented building blocks for new classes of devices as small as molecules and machines as small as human cells. This research could lead to continued improvement in electronics for information technology; higher-performance, lower-maintenance materials for defense, transportation, space, and environmental applications; and accelerated biotechnical applications in medicine, healthcare, and agriculture. In 2003, the initiative will focus on fundamental nanoscale research through investments in investigator-led activities, centers and networks of excellence, as well as the supporting infrastructure. Priority areas include: research to enable efficient nanoscale manufacturing; innovative nanotechnology solutions for detection of and protection from biological-chemical-radiological-explosive agents; the education and training of a new generation or workers for future industries; and partnerships and other policies to enhance industrial participation in the nanotechnology revolution. The convergence of nanotechnology with information technology, modern biology and social sciences will reinvigorate discoveries and innovation in many areas of the economy. Climate Change R&D: In June 2001, the President announced that the Administration’s climate change policy will be science-based, and it will encourage research breakthroughs that lead to technological innovation. To advance and bring focus to climate change science and technology, the President created two new initiatives: the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and the National Climate Change Technology Initiative (NCCTI). The Administration committed to funding high-priority areas where investments can make a difference. These new initiatives will complement ongoing research funded under the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and other related technology research programs that address climate change. The USGCRP has existed for more than a decade, and provides funding at nine different agencies for fundamental research on natural and human-induced 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING changes in the global environment, with the goal of attaining a more complete understanding of global climate change to better respond to the challenges it presents. In 2003, this program will continue, with a total funding level of $1.7 billion, an increase of 3 percent over the 2002 enacted level. The 2003 budget will pause the development of follow-on NASA satellites, the largest single item in the USGCRP budget, consuming more than half of total program funding. NASA will not start new satellites until a review of the USGCRP, and its relationship to the new CCRI, is complete. In addition to increasing funding for USGCRP, the budget requests $40 million in CCRI, to be shared among five agencies (NOAA, NSF, NASA, DOE, and USDA). This investment will begin to focus on answering key gaps in knowledge among those recently identified by the National Academy of Sciences in a report from 2001: ‘‘Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.’’ This includes improving the capability of ‘‘integrating scientific knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision support systems.’’ CCRI will adopt performance metrics and deliverable products useful to policymakers in a short time frame (2–5 years). The NCCTI will build on an existing base of research and development in climate change technologies, primarily at DOE, EPA, and USDA. The budget requests $40 million for NCCTI within the DOE budget. Specific research areas are being identified through an interagency review process. Agency R&D Highlights Each federal agency conducts R&D in the context of that agency’s unique mission, structure, and statutory requirements. Below are highlights of key R&D programs in selected agencies in the 2003 budget. Table 8–3 shows the FS&T budget. As shown in Table 8–2, these programs and those of other agencies are part of the larger federal R&D portfolio. National Institutes of Health: NIH comprises 25 Institutes and Centers whose collective mission is to sponsor and conduct biomedical research and research training that leads to better health for all Americans. While NIH does conduct research in its own laboratories, a majority of its funding supports more than 50,000 scientists working in 2,000 institutions across the United States. With the help of NIH grants, these scientists have been making great advances in the detection and treatment of diseases. All NIH grants are peer-reviewed and are funded based on their scientific merit. During the presidential campaign, the President promised to double the budget of the NIH by 2003 to $27.3 billion, from the 1998 level of $13.6 billion. The 2003 budget includes the final installment of $3.9 billion needed to fulfill the President’s commitment, which will maximize the opportunity to expand scientific discovery by increasing the number of new research grants funded. With this increase, NIH will fur- 165 ther its efforts to support research on diseases that affect the lives of all Americans. For example, the budget provides $5.5 billion for cancer-related research at the National Cancer Institute and other NIH Institutes. This NIH funding increase will also finance important research needed for the war against terrorism. As the country faces new and dangerous bioterrorism threats, the NIH will expand research on the effects of bioterrorism attacks and develop treatments in the event our Nation is ever attacked. The 2003 budget provides $1.75 billion for bioterrorism research, including genomic sequencing of dangerous pathogens, development of improved anthrax vaccine, and laboratory and research facilities construction and upgrades related to bioterrorism and Z-chip technology research. With the ability to identify a vast number of molecular signatures, the Z-chip can be used on the front line of medical response for nearly instant diagnosis of a wide array of biothreats or naturally occurring diseases, saving precious time and therefore lives in the first hours of a biological attack. National Aeronautics and Space Administration: The 2003 budget provides $8.8 billion for FS&T programs at NASA, an 8 percent increase over 2002. The 2003 budget restructures under-performing programs and provides funding to address key issues including establishing a long-term strategy for planetary exploration, emphasizing near-term results in climate change research, prioritizing research on the International Space Station, lowering the cost of access to space, and improving the safety and efficiency of the Nation’s civil aviation system. In Space Science, the 2003 budget of $3.4 billion discontinues NASA’s Outer Planets program due to substantial cost and schedule growth and redirects funding to a revamped New Frontiers program of competitively selected planetary missions focused on understanding the origins and existence of life beyond Earth. The 2003 budget also supports investments in safe and reliable nuclear power and nuclear-electric propulsion technologies to enable much faster and more frequent planetary investigations with greater science capabilities in this decade and the next. The 2003 budget for Earth Science ($1.6 billion) supports two important demonstrations—the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project and the Jason follow-on—which will measure key variables that are needed to provide long-term, climate quality data to understand how the Earth’s climate is changing. In Biological and Physical Research, the 2003 budget of $851 million will yield clear priorities for Space Station research and invests in space radiation and space biology research initiatives that will enable new space platforms through which biological and physical research can be pursued. The 2003 budget continues planned increases in funding for NASA’s Space Launch Initiative ($759 million in 2003), a high priority program that will lead to safer and lower cost, commercial launch vehicles to replace the Space Shuttle. The 2003 budget maintains key in- 166 vestments in technologies to improve aircraft safety and to reduce congestion in the Nation’s civil aviation system ($220 million). National Science Foundation: The 2003 budget provides $5.0 billion, a 5 percent increase, for research at NSF, whose broad mission is to promote science and engineering research and education. The budget provides: $678 million for NSF’s lead role in NITRD, focusing on long-term computer science research and applications; $221 million for NSF’s lead role in the National Nanotechnology Initiative; $15 million for NSF participation in the Climate Change Research Initiative—in addition to $188 million for USGCRP—for research on climate change risk management, understanding the North American carbon cycle, and computer modeling; $27 million (a $20 million increase) for NSF basic research programs in microbe genome sequencing and the transmission of infectious diseases, two research areas of importance in combating bioterrorism. Based on NSF’s noted expertise and success in funding competitive research, the 2003 budget aims to improve the quality of a number of science and engineering programs by transferring them to NSF. The budget transfers the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Sea Grant program and the United States Geological Survey’s toxic substances hydrology research program to NSF, where merit-based competition will improve overall program effectiveness. These transfers will take advantage of NSF’s competitive culture and demonstrated quality of results. The President’s goal to improve the quality of math and science education in Grades K–12 will be pursued through the President’s Math and Science Partnerships Initiative, which allows states to join with institutions of higher education, particularly math and science departments, in strengthening math and science education. The initiative provides a mechanism to allow scientists and engineers to be part of the solution in improving grades K–12 education. Funding for the programs is proposed to increase by $40 million, to $200 million. The budget also aims to further attract the most promising U.S. students into graduate level science and engineering by increasing graduate stipends from $21,500 to $25,000 annually. Department of Energy: The 2003 budget provides $5.0 billion for FS&T at DOE. The budget proposes $3.3 billion, a 1.5-percent increase over 2002, for DOE Science programs, the Nation’s leading sponsor of research in the physical sciences. DOE has a special role in supporting research in particle physics, nuclear physics, fusion energy sciences, chemistry of the radioactive elements, nanoscience, genomic sequencing, and computational science. The Department also supports research that will reduce key scientific uncertainties inherent in climate change and carbon cycle models. These basic science programs support the DOE’s applied missions in energy, national nuclear security and environmental quality. The Department contributes to national science stewardship, a cornerstone of the De- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES partment’s mission, by operating a suite of 27 scientific user facilities—such as x-ray light sources, fusion experiments, particle accelerators and colliders. Over 18,000 scientists from universities, industry and government agencies use these facilities every year. Consistent with the Administration’s emphasis on shifting funds to higher priority programs, the budget redirects funding to maintain operations at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The Department sponsors applied research and development programs with two primary interests. In the national security area, DOE sponsors R&D that sustains the safety, reliability, and performance of the Nation’s nuclear weapons ($3.1 billion in 2003). Nonproliferation and verification research conducted by the Department advances technologies for detection of nuclear weapons proliferation, nuclear explosion monitoring, and chemical and biological response. In the energy area, DOE sponsors research in energy production and use, from fossil, nuclear, and renewable sources. The Department has had success in reducing the cost of renewable energy resources (wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass), and it will continue R&D efforts to make these energy sources more cost-competitive. Last year’s budget provided $150 million to existing coal research towards the President’s commitment to spend $2 billion over ten years on clean coal research. In the 2003 budget, all coal programs are brought under one umbrella—the President’s Clean Coal Research Initiative. Using a more transparent budget structure, this approach will improve the management and oversight of this $326 million program. DOE also sponsors R&D to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, industry, the transportation sector, and the federal government ($589 million in 2003). DOE’s energy conservation efforts include the following examples. Cost-shared R&D with industry will to continue to increase industrial output per unit of energy input. Development of a web-based tool will assist contractors and homeowners in identifying the most efficient energy-saving retrofit activities, based on the age and condition of the home and the funds available. A partnership with the trucking industry will dramatically improve fuel efficiency by 2010. And, a program to increase energy efficiency in federal buildings will achieve a 35 percent efficiency increase by 2010, compared to 1985 levels. Department of Defense: DOD funds a wide range of R&D to ensure that our military forces have the tools to protect the Nation’s security. DOD’s 2003 budget includes $5.0 billion that appears in the FS&T budget. Due in part to the events of September 11, 2001, research and development of technologies and systems that address terrorist threats have been the focus of additional funds and urgency. Systems or technologies under development include: improved detectors of chemical and biological threats (for both remote and onsite application); more comfortable and more effective troop protective gear for use under chemical and bio- 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING logical attack; vaccines to provide protection against biological agents; surveillance systems to provide longer range and earlier warning of possible attacks using weapons of mass destruction; and more effective cave and other ‘‘hard target’’ attack munitions. DOD’s ‘‘Science and Technology’’ programs (over $9 billion in 2003) range from basic research and applied research (included in FS&T), to fabrication of component prototypes for potential future systems. These programs explore and develop technical options for new defense systems and help reduce the chance of being surprised by new technologies in the hands of adversaries. Areas of emphasis include computing and communications, sensors, nanotechnology, understanding the military environment (for example, oceans, atmospheric and geological sciences), propulsion systems, and technologies for the next generation of long-range strike aircraft. Promising technologies and processes may be incorporated into weapon systems of the future. Later stage development, test and evaluation funds ($45 billion) support development of new weapons and supporting systems, including testing the effectiveness of those systems and how they interface with other weapons or control systems. Systems under development in 2003 include: the Joint Strike Fighter, ballistic missile defense systems, a new aircraft carrier, the DD(X) naval destroyer, space-based missile warning satellites, and unmanned underwater vehicles. Systems in the final stages of development include the F–22 fighter aircraft and the V–22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. The Army continues development efforts in support of the Future Combat System as a major part of their transformation to a lighter, more mobile, and more effective fighting force. Department of Agriculture: The 2003 budget provides $1.9 billion, a one percent increase, for FS&T at the Department of Agriculture (USDA). The budget for USDA’s research, education and extension programs proposes significant increases for high priority national needs and for competitive, peer-reviewed grants, while reducing or eliminating lower priority projects, particularly earmarks. Funded at $2.3 billion in 2003, this program includes activities that are not part of the FS&T budget, such as USDA laboratory construction and rehabilitation, extension grants, and statistical programs. The 2003 budget adds $58 million to the programs of the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) in the following areas: air and water quality and climate change, biobased products, bioenergy and biotechnology, protection against bioterrorism, emerging and exotic diseases, genomics and genetics, and library resources. In addition, the budget provides $240 million (a 100 percent increase) for the National Research Initiative (NRI), which funds competitive research grants covering a broad spectrum of agricultural research areas. The budget provides additional increases over 2002 of $7 million for the expansion of the Agricultural Resources Management Study and of $15.5 million for necessary cyclical costs associated with the five year Census of Agriculture. 167 The 2003 budget for Forest Service Research and Development programs ($254 million) includes $10 million for new priority research on biobased products and bioenergy and a quantitative planning and graphic data analysis tool for forest planning. The budget also places additional emphasis on annualized forest inventories. In order to fund these increases and ensure that taxpayer dollars are used most effectively in the public interest, the budget proposes to eliminate unrequested earmarks for specific purposes at specific locations that were provided in 2002. These total $205 million for in-house research ($89 million in ARS and $16 million in the Forest Service) and $123 million for research grants, for a total of over 400 projects. Department of the Interior: Within the Department of the Interior (DOI), the 2003 budget provides $904 million for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), for science that emphasizes the mission responsibility of providing sound and impartial science to manage land, water, biological, energy, and mineral resources. The 2003 budget reduces direct federal funding for programs that support outside customers in order to increase the proportion of services paid for by these customers. The 2003 budget focuses resources on those programs that directly address the science needs of Interior bureaus, including funding for science to support ecosystem restoration in the Everglades. To support sound conservation decisions, USGS will combine natural resource monitoring and information technology that will promote conservation partnerships and better inform federal, state, and local land acquisition. The budget transfers USGS toxic substances hydrology research program funding to NSF. While the work of USGS is generally of high quality, this transfer will provide new emphasis on merit-based competitive selection. USGS will continue to play a role in identifying research priorities. Beginning in 2002, the Bureau of Land Management and USGS will help support the development of the E-Gov Geospatial One-Stop initiative. This initiative, led by the interagency Federal Geographic Data Committee, will make geospatial data more accessible and usable by developing government-wide data standards and deploying a user friendly web portal for geospatial data and mapping applications. Department of Commerce: The 2003 budget provides $861 million for FS&T at the Department of Commerce (DOC). For the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the budget provides $402 million—a 23 percent increase over 2002—for research and physical improvements at NIST’s Measurement and Standards Laboratories. In addition to funding ongoing research, the budget increase supports construction of new NIST facilities, including equipment for the Advanced Measurement Laboratory in Maryland. NIST labs work with industry to develop the measurements and standards needed to support technological innovation. Facilities modernization is needed to support NIST’s groundbreaking research. 168 The 2003 budget also provides $107 million for NIST’s Advanced Technology Program (ATP), which makes R&D grants to commercial firms. In 2003, ATP will modify its program regulations to increase university participation and allow cost-recoupment for successfully commercialized technologies. The 2003 budget provides $297 million for FS&T at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to improve understanding of climate change, weather and air quality, and ocean processes. In 2003, NOAA’s R&D will also support economic growth through continued efforts in marine biotechnology and aquaculture, as well as a new initiative to demonstrate benefits to the energy sector through improved weather and river forecasting capabilities. The budget also transfers the National Sea Grant College Program to NSF to promote more rigorous, merit-based competition among researchers. NOAA and NSF will jointly manage the program, and NOAA will continue to play a role in identifying research priorities. Environmental Protection Agency: The budget provides $797 million for FS&T at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The Office of Research and Development (ORD) performs the majority of EPA’s research and provides a sound scientific and technical foundation for environmental policy and regulatory decision-making. EPA relies on strong science to achieve its mission and has a responsibility to ensure that efforts to reduce environmental risks are based on the best available scientific information. In 2003, EPA will work to improve methods for assessing the cumulative risks of complex pollutant mixtures, tools to describe the impact of exposures to them on cumulative risk, and the tools for decision makers to address cumulative risks. EPA will also focus essential scientific support on its highest-priority pending regulations to help strengthen its regulatory process. A new EPA effort to identify innovative environmental technologies through a national competition is expected to help solve such vexing problems as effluent trading programs and removing arsenic from drinking water. EPA will also fund a new biotechnology research effort to address information gaps and develop management tools for allergenicity, and ecological risk and resistance. The budget includes $75 million for research into technologies and procedures to cope with future biological or chemical incidents. Department of Transportation: The 2003 budget provides $548 million for FS&T at the Department of Transportation (DOT). DOT research funds are concentrated primarily in the federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), and the Federal Airline Administration (FAA). The FHWA ($421 million in 2003) supports research to improve the quality and safety of the Nation’s transportation infrastructure. Specifically, the research focuses on methods to increase the quality and longevity of roadways, identifies safety improvements possible through the use of Intelligence Trans- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES portation Systems (ITS), and analyzes the use of surveillance technology for improved traffic control, emergency evacuations and critical infrastructure. NHTSA’s 2003 budget provides $58 million for R&D in crash worthiness, crash avoidance and data analysis to help reduce highway fatalities and injuries. In aviation research, and in light of the September 11th terrorist attacks, security will be the major focus for the FAA as it develops the best technologies to prevent future incidents. The 2003 budget provides $95 million for aviation security technology research. Department of Education: The 2003 budget provides $431 million for FS&T at the Department of Education. The vast majority of the Department’s research and development is administered by three offices: the Office of Educational Research and Improvement (OERI), National Institute for Disability and Rehabilitation Research (NIDRR), and the Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP). OERI, which administers the largest share of FS&T funds through Research, Development, and Dissemination, conducts research on teaching, learning and achievement; develops materials and methods to help students succeed; and disseminates these techniques to teachers and schools. In 2003, OERI’s research portfolio will include a program that builds on the substantial science of reading to study conditions under which children decode and ultimately comprehend what they read. A second new program will support trials of existing preschool curricula to identify which work best. A third will identify strategies to enhance the use of research findings by teachers, school administrators, and policymakers. The Administration is developing a reauthorization proposal for OERI that will address many of its perennial research quality issues through structural reform. The new structure should allow OERI to improve the quality, objectivity, coordination, and focus of the Department’s research activities. Until reauthorizing legislation is enacted, the Assistant Secretary is improving the scientific quality of OERI-funded research projects through implementation of a more rigorous grant solicitation and peer review process. The Office of Special Education and Rehabilitative Services administers R&D related to persons with disabilities through NIDRR and OSEP. NIDRR conducts research and related activities to maximize the full integration, employment, and independent living of individuals with disabilities, consistent with the President’s New Freedom Initiative, which aims to help individuals with disabilities lead more independent lives. OSEP supports special education research projects, demonstrations, and outreach in order to produce new knowledge in the fields of special education and early intervention, apply effective research in model demonstration projects, and put knowledge into the hands of those who work with children with disabilities. Department of Veterans Affairs: The 2003 budget provides $409 million for FS&T at the Department of 169 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING Veterans Affairs (VA), an increase of 10 percent. In addition, the Department receives significant funding from other governmental agencies and private entities to support VA-conducted research, which brings the total of R&D VA performs to $1.4 billion. The 2003 budget provides $394 million for clinical, epidemiological, and behavioral studies across a broad spectrum of medical research disciplines. Among the agency’s top research priorities are improving the translation of research results into patient care, special populations (those afflicted with spinal cord injury, visual and hearing impairments, and serious mental illness), geriatrics, diseases of the brain (e.g., Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease), treatment of chronic progressive multiple sclerosis, and chronic disease management. actively reinstated for five years, to 2004, in the Tax Relief Extension Act of 1999. The budget proposes to make the Research and Experimentation (R&E) tax credit permanent. The proposed extension will cost $14 billion over the period from 2004 to 2007. In addition, a permanent tax provision lets companies deduct, up front, the costs of certain kinds of research and experimentation, rather than capitalize these costs. Finally, equipment used for research benefits from relatively rapid cost recovery. Table 8–1 shows a forecast of the costs of the tax credit. Stimulating Private Investment (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) Along with direct spending on R&D, the federal government has sought to stimulate private investment in these activities with tax preferences. The current law provides a 20-percent tax credit for private research and experimentation expenditures above a certain base amount. The credit, which expired in 1999, was retroIV. Table 8–1. PERMANENT EXTENSION OF THE RESEARCH AND EXPERIMENTATION TAX CREDIT 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003–2007 Current Law ............................ Proposed Extension ................ 4,590 0 4,020 906 2,330 2,949 990 4,654 410 5,623 12,350 14,132 Total ............................... 4,590 4,926 5,279 5,644 6,033 26,482 FEDERAL R&D DATA Federal R&D Funding R&D is the collection of efforts directed towards gaining greater knowledge or understanding and applying knowledge toward the production of useful materials, devices, and methods. R&D investments can be characterized as basic research, applied research, development, R&D equipment, or R&D facilities, and OMB has used those or similar categories in its collection of R&D data since 1949. Basic research is defined as systematic study directed toward greater knowledge or understanding of the fundamental aspects of phenomena and of observable facts without specific applications towards processes or products in mind. Applied research is systematic study to gain knowledge or understanding necessary to determine the means by which a recognized and specific need may be met. Development is systematic application of knowledge toward the production of useful materials, devices, and systems or methods, including design, development, and improvement of prototypes and new processes to meet specific requirements. Research and development equipment includes acquisition or design and production of movable equipment, such as spectrometers, microscopes, detectors, and other instruments. Research and development facilities include the acquisition, design, and construction of, or major repairs or alterations to, all physical facilities for use in R&D activities. Facilities include land, buildings, and fixed capital equipment, regardless of whether the facilities are to be used by the Government or by a private organization, and regardless of where title to the property may rest. This category includes such fixed facilities as reactors, wind tunnels, and particle accelerators. There are over twenty federal agencies that fund R&D in the U.S. The nature of the R&D that these agencies fund depends on the mission of each agency and on the role of R&D in accomplishing it. Table 8–2 shows agency-by-agency spending on basic and applied research, development, and R&D equipment and facilities. 170 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 8–2. FEDERAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2000 Actual 2001 Actual 2002 Estimate 2003 Proposed Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 By Agency Defense .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services ......................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... Energy ............................................................................................ National Science Foundation ......................................................... Agriculture ...................................................................................... Commerce ...................................................................................... Veterans Affairs .............................................................................. Transportation ................................................................................ Environmental Protection Agency .................................................. Interior ............................................................................................ Education ........................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................... 39,664 18,051 9,242 6,892 2,947 1,773 1,110 618 603 559 645 238 796 42,235 21,037 9,675 7,772 3,363 2,182 1,054 748 792 598 622 264 922 49,171 23,938 9,560 9,253 3,571 2,336 1,129 796 867 612 660 268 1,021 54,544 27,683 10,069 8,510 3,700 2,118 1,114 846 725 650 628 311 858 5,373 3,745 509 –743 129 –218 –15 50 –142 38 –32 43 –163 11% 16% 5% –8% 4% –9% –1% 6% –16% 6% –5% 16% –16% Total ........................................................................................... 83,138 91,264 103,182 111,756 8,574 8% Basic Research Defense .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services ......................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... Energy ............................................................................................ National Science Foundation ......................................................... Agriculture ...................................................................................... Commerce ...................................................................................... Veterans Affairs .............................................................................. Transportation ................................................................................ Environmental Protection Agency .................................................. Interior ............................................................................................ Education ........................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................... 1,136 10,062 2,137 2,262 2,540 684 42 52 10 58 266 2 170 1,271 11,601 1,652 2,390 2,894 801 50 301 17 105 56 2 190 1,305 13,183 1,909 2,420 3,093 860 52 344 13 107 58 2 196 1,336 14,467 2,298 2,517 3,242 880 73 367 25 101 55 1 183 31 1,284 389 97 149 20 21 23 12 –6 –3 –1 –13 2% 10% 20% 4% 5% 2% 40% 7% 92% –6% –5% –50% –7% Subtotal ..................................................................................... 19,421 21,330 23,542 25,545 2,003 9% Applied Research Defense .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services ......................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... Energy ............................................................................................ National Science Foundation ......................................................... Agriculture ...................................................................................... Commerce ...................................................................................... Veterans Affairs .............................................................................. Transportation ................................................................................ Environmental Protection Agency .................................................. Interior ............................................................................................ Education ........................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................... 3,405 7,692 1,534 1,874 184 831 780 520 396 388 367 151 344 3,673 9,064 2,533 2,330 181 1,045 768 432 445 370 534 172 413 3,656 10,249 2,766 2,874 192 988 838 436 522 381 570 178 432 3,616 12,379 3,099 2,866 199 946 795 462 396 431 541 212 348 –40 2,130 333 –8 7 –42 –43 26 –126 50 –29 34 –84 –1% 21% 12% 0% 4% –4% –5% 6% –24% 13% –5% 19% –19% Subtotal ..................................................................................... 18,466 21,960 24,082 26,290 2,208 9% Development Defense .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services ......................................................... National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... Energy ............................................................................................ National Science Foundation ......................................................... Agriculture ...................................................................................... Commerce ...................................................................................... Veterans Affairs .............................................................................. Transportation ................................................................................ Environmental Protection Agency .................................................. Interior ............................................................................................ Education ........................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................... 35,026 44 2,702 1,855 0 111 130 29 185 92 12 85 253 37,270 107 2,698 2,042 0 152 170 15 247 101 32 90 306 44,200 129 2,582 2,851 0 163 162 16 256 103 32 88 378 49,570 100 2,648 2,162 0 156 109 17 221 97 32 98 310 5,370 –29 66 –689 0 –7 –53 1 –35 –6 0 10 –68 12% –22% 3% –24% N/A –4% –33% 6% –14% –6% 0% 11% –18% Subtotal ..................................................................................... 40,524 43,230 50,960 55,520 4,560 9% Facilities and Equipment Defense .......................................................................................... Health and Human Services ......................................................... 97 253 21 265 10 377 22 737 12 360 120% 95% 171 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING Table 8–2. FEDERAL RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING—Continued (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2000 Actual 2001 Actual 2002 Estimate 2003 Proposed Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 National Aeronautics and Space Administration ........................... Energy ............................................................................................ National Science Foundation ......................................................... Agriculture ...................................................................................... Commerce ...................................................................................... Veterans Affairs .............................................................................. Transportation ................................................................................ Environmental Protection Agency .................................................. Interior ............................................................................................ Education ........................................................................................ Other ............................................................................................... 2,869 901 223 147 158 17 12 21 0 0 29 2,792 1,010 288 184 66 0 83 22 0 0 13 2,303 1,108 286 325 77 0 76 21 0 0 15 2,024 965 259 136 137 0 83 21 0 0 17 –279 –143 –27 –189 60 0 7 0 0 0 2 –12% –13% –9% –58% 78% N/A 9% 0% N/A N/A 13% Subtotal ..................................................................................... 4,727 4,744 4,598 4,401 –197 –4% Federal Science and Technology Budget Table 8–3 contains the FS&T budget, which accounts for nearly all of federal basic research, over 80 percent Table 8–3. of federal applied research, and about half of civilian development. FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2000 Actual By Agency National Institutes of Health 1 ................................................................... NASA 2 .......................................................................................................... Space Science ......................................................................................... Earth Science ........................................................................................... Biological and Physical Research ........................................................... Aero-space Technology ........................................................................... National Science Foundation .................................................................... Energy .......................................................................................................... Science Programs 3 .................................................................................. Renewable Energy ................................................................................... Nuclear Energy ........................................................................................ Energy Conservation 4 ............................................................................. Fossil Energy 5 ......................................................................................... Defense ........................................................................................................ Basic Research ........................................................................................ Applied Research ..................................................................................... Agriculture ................................................................................................... CSREES Research and Education ......................................................... Economic Research Service .................................................................... Mandatory Research Grants 6 ................................................................. Agricultural Research Service 7 ............................................................... Forest Service 8 ........................................................................................ Interior (USGS) ............................................................................................ Commerce ................................................................................................... NOAA (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) 9 ...................................... NIST 10 ...................................................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency 11 ........................................................ Transportation ............................................................................................. Highway research 12 ................................................................................. Aviation research 13 .................................................................................. Education ..................................................................................................... Special Education Research and Innovation .......................................... NIDRR 14 .................................................................................................. Research, Development, and Dissemination .......................................... 17,827 7,013 2,606 1,734 839 1,834 3,903 4,338 2,820 306 226 577 409 4,541 1,136 3,405 1,759 488 67 120 866 218 847 826 285 541 683 593 490 103 317 64 86 167 2001 Actual 20,438 7,789 2,760 1,825 944 2,260 4,437 4,911 3,218 370 261 619 443 4,944 1,271 3,673 1,885 514 69 120 936 246 918 828 325 503 746 521 387 134 363 77 100 186 2002 Estimate 23,433 8,113 3,034 1,695 828 2,556 4,795 5,099 3,240 386 244 641 588 4,961 1,305 3,656 1,890 552 70 0 1,017 251 950 948 362 586 750 651 448 203 377 78 110 189 2003 Proposed 27,335 8,774 3,428 1,639 851 2,856 5,036 5,027 3,285 408 251 589 494 4,952 1,336 3,616 1,913 563 82 0 1,014 254 904 861 297 564 797 548 421 127 431 78 110 243 Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 3,902 661 394 -56 23 300 241 -72 45 22 7 -52 -94 -9 31 -40 23 11 12 0 -3 3 -46 -87 -65 -22 47 -103 -27 -76 54 0 0 54 Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 17% 8% 13% -3% 3% 12% 5% -1% 1% 6% 3% -8% -16% 0% 2% -1% 1% 2% 17% N/A 0% 1% -5% -9% -18% -4% 6% -16% -6% -37% 14% 0% 0% 29% 172 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 8–3. FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET—Continued (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2000 Actual Veterans Affairs 15 ...................................................................................... Total ........................................................................................................ 2001 Actual 2002 Estimate 2003 Proposed Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 321 363 373 409 36 10% 42,968 48,143 52,340 56,987 4,647 9% Notes: Levels adjusted to include the full share of accruing employee pensions and annuitants health benefits. For more information on these items, please see Chapter 14. Levels for 2000 are derived without accrual in most instances. 1 The 2002 appropriation includes $100 million for the Global Fund to Fight HIV/AIDS, Turberculosis, and Malaria. 2 All years normalized to reflect 2003 transfers of funding for Space Station research facilities, space communications activities, and associated institutional support from human space flight. 3 Includes $36 million for programs transferred from Environmental Management. 4 Excludes state grant programs. 5 Excludes balances tranferred from the Clean Coal Technology program for activities in 2001 ($95 million), 2002 ($34 million), and 2003 ($40 million). 6 Initiative for Future Agriculture and Food Systems. 7 Excludes buildings and facilities. 8 Forest and Rangeland Research. 9 Excludes Manufacturing Extension Program. 10 The 2003 level does not include the Sea Grant program, which was transferred to NSF. 11 Science and Technology, plus superfund transfer. The 2002 level does not include anti-terrorism supplemental funding, which is primarily for drinking water vulnerability standards. The 2003 level includes an additional superfund transfer for security research related to building decontamination. 12 Includes research and development funding for the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 13 Federal Aviation Administration Research, Engineering, and Development. Excludes funding for aviation security research in all years, now funded through the Transportation Security Administration. 14 National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research. 15 Medical and Prosthetic Research. Interagency R&D Efforts Nanotechnology Initiative, and the climate change research and technology initiatives. Table 8–4 shows agency spending for Networking and Information Technology R&D, the National Table 8–4. AGENCY DETAIL OF SELECTED INTERAGENCY R&D EFFORTS (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2001 Actual Networking and Information Technology R&D National Science Foundation ................................................................ Health and Human Services ................................................................. Energy .................................................................................................... Defense .................................................................................................. National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. Commerce ............................................................................................. Environmental Protection Agency ......................................................... 2002 Estimate Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 2003 Proposed Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 636 277 326 310 177 38 4 676 310 312 320 181 43 2 678 336 313 306 213 42 2 2 26 1 –14 32 –1 0 0% 8% 0% –4% 18% –2% 0% Total .................................................................................................. National Nanotechnology Initiative National Science Foundation ................................................................ Defense .................................................................................................. Energy .................................................................................................... Commerce ............................................................................................. National Institutes of Health .................................................................. National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. Environmental Protection Agency ......................................................... Department of Transportation ............................................................... Department of Justice ........................................................................... 1,768 1,844 1,890 46 3% 150 125 88 33 40 22 5 0 1 199 180 91 38 41 22 5 2 1 221 201 139 44 43 22 5 2 1 22 21 48 6 2 0 0 0 0 11% 12% 53% 16% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% Total .................................................................................................. Climate Change Research Initiative. Commerce ............................................................................................. National Science Foundation ................................................................ National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. Energy .................................................................................................... Agriculture .............................................................................................. 464 579 679 100 17% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 15 3 3 1 18 15 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Total .................................................................................................. U.S. Global Change Research Program National Aeronautics and Space Administration .................................. National Science Foundation ................................................................ Energy .................................................................................................... 0 0 40 40 N/A 1,176 181 116 1,090 188 120 1,109 188 126 19 0 6 2% 0% 5% 173 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING Table 8–4. AGENCY DETAIL OF SELECTED INTERAGENCY R&D EFFORTS—Continued (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) 2001 Actual 2002 Estimate Dollar Change: 2002 to 2003 2003 Proposed Percent Change: 2002 to 2003 Commerce ............................................................................................. National Institutes of Health .................................................................. Agriculture .............................................................................................. Interior .................................................................................................... Environmental Protection Agency ......................................................... Smithsonian ........................................................................................... 93 54 51 27 23 7 100 60 56 28 21 7 100 68 66 28 22 7 0 8 10 0 1 0 0% 13% 18% 0% 5% 0% Total .................................................................................................. 1,728 1,670 1,714 44 3% * Includes $9 million in offsetting collections in 2003 for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. These activities were funded at $15 million in 2001 and $14 million in 2002. Allocation of Research Funding Federal funds appropriated to Executive Branch agencies may be used in different ways, ranging from grants awarded to university researchers to supporting research at federal laboratories. The Administration supports the competitive, merit review process for funding research in most cases. However, there are appropriate roles for other modes of allocating research funding in some circumstances, such as funding research at specific facilities that have unique capabilities. In order to better understand and characterize the methods agencies use to allocate their research funding, agencies reported how research funds are allocated by the following five categories: Research performed at congressional direction consists of intramural and extramural research programs where funded activities are awarded to a single performer or collection of performers with limited or no competitive selection or with competitive selection but outside of the agency’s primary mission, based on direction from the Congress in law, in report language, or by other direction. Inherently unique research is intramural and extramural research programs where funded activities are awarded to a single performer or team of performers without competitive selection. The award may be based on the provision of unique capabilities, concern for timeliness, or prior record of performance (e.g., facility operations support for a unique facility, such as an electronpositron linear collider; research grants for rapid response studies such as Pfisteria, an environmental hazard that arose suddenly). Merit-reviewed research with limited competitive selection is intramural and extramural research pro- grams where funded activities are competitively awarded from a pool of qualified applicants that are limited to organizations that were created to largely serve federal missions and continue to receive most of their annual research revenue from federal sources. The limited competition may be for reasons of stewardship, agency mission constraints, or retention of unique technical capabilities (e.g., funding set aside for researchers at laboratories or centers of DOD, NASA, EPA, NOAA, and NIH; Federally-Funded Research and Development Centers; formula funds for USDA). Merit-reviewed research with competitive selection and internal (program) evaluation is intramural and extramural research programs where funded activities are competitively awarded following review for scientific or technical merit. The review is conducted by the program manager or other qualified individuals from within the agency program, without additional independent evaluation (e.g., merit-reviewed research at DOD). Merit-reviewed research with competitive selection and external (peer) evaluation is intramural and extramural research programs where funded activities are competitively awarded following review by a set of external scientific or technical reviewers (often called peers) for merit. The review is conducted by appropriately qualified scientists, engineers, or other technically-qualified individuals who are apart from the people or groups making the award decisions, and serves to inform the program manager or other qualified individual who makes the award (e.g., NSF’s single-investigator research; NASA’s research and analysis funds). Table 8–5 lists how federal R&D agencies report allocating research funding among these categories. 174 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES Table 8–5. ALLOCATION OF FEDERAL RESEARCH FUNDING, 2001 and 2002 (Budget authority, dollar amounts in millions) Research Performed at Congressional Direction 2001 2002 Inherently Unique Research Merit-Reviewed Research with Limited Competitive Selection Merit-Reviewed Research with Competitive Selection and Internal Evaluation 2001 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002 Merit-Reviewed Research with Competitive Selection and External Evaluation 2001 2002 Total 2001 2002 By Agency Health and Human Services ................................... Energy ...................................................................... Defense * .................................................................. National Aeronautics and Space Administration ..... National Science Foundation ................................... Agriculture ** ............................................................. Commerce ................................................................ Veterans Affairs ........................................................ Interior ...................................................................... Transportation .......................................................... Environmental Protection Agency ............................ Education .................................................................. Smithsonian Institution ............................................. Other ......................................................................... 89 134 678 230 0 105 18 1 27 55 39 5 0 385 142 223 426 287 0 122 21 0 48 82 60 0 0 413 206 1,078 295 152 0 815 354 0 156 69 39 0 108 11 230 1,068 350 149 0 893 377 0 154 73 38 0 111 7 2,392 2,382 1,012 532 191 720 100 2 379 0 195 0 0 17 2,718 2,820 1,014 398 206 676 108 2 392 0 192 0 0 17 201 305 2,712 1,377 184 0 204 349 26 338 69 0 0 76 216 17,777 20,126 20,665 23,432 395 821 788 4,720 5,294 2,950 247 221 4,944 4,961 1,550 1,894 2,291 4,185 4,675 192 2,700 2,887 3,075 3,285 0 206 157 1,846 1,848 218 142 166 818 890 370 381 408 733 780 31 2 3 590 628 380 0 0 462 535 68 133 130 475 488 0 169 180 174 180 0 0 0 108 111 74 6 6 495 517 Total ..................................................................... 1,766 1,824 3,283 3,450 7,922 8,543 5,841 6,444 24,478 27,363 43,290 47,624 * Allocation among categories is preliminary. ** Does not include net mandatory funding for USDA research grant programs of $120 million in FY 2001. Earmarks Table 8–6 lists the top 30 recipients of individual academic earmarks in 2001, as identified by The Chronicle of Higher Education. In addition to $1.2 billion in earmarks to specific colleges and universities, there Table 8–6. is another $431 million in earmarked funding to be shared in an unspecified distribution among these and other colleges and universities. Table 8–6. 30 Colleges and Universities Received Over 40 Percent of Unshared* Academic Earmarks in 2001 COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES RECEIVED OVER 40 PERCENT OF UNSHARED* ACADEMIC EARMARKS IN 2001 College or University 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. University of Alaska at Fairbanks ........................................................................ Loma Linda University ......................................................................................... Marshall University ............................................................................................... University of New Hampshire .............................................................................. Dartmouth College ................................................................................................ University of Missouri at Columbia ...................................................................... University of Mississippi ....................................................................................... University of Alabama at Birmingham ................................................................. University of Nebraska ......................................................................................... Kansas State University ....................................................................................... University of Florida ............................................................................................. Mississippi State University ................................................................................. Pennsylvania State University at University Park ............................................... Wheeling Jesuit University ................................................................................... University of Maine .............................................................................................. West Virginia University ....................................................................................... Auburn University ................................................................................................. University of South Carolina at Columbia ........................................................... Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville ......................................................... University of Alabama at Tuscaloosa .................................................................. University of South Florida .................................................................................. University of Minnesota—Twin Cities .................................................................. University of Louisville ......................................................................................... State Alaska California West Virginia New Hampshire New Hampshire Missouri Mississippi Alabama Nebraska Kansas Florida Mississippi Pennsylvania West Virginia Maine West Virginia Alabama South Carolina Illinois Alabama Florida Minnesota Kentucky Number of Earmarks Received 20 4 6 14 5 21 20 12 4 12 14 33 14 9 9 17 17 6 3 10 8 5 9 Sum of Earmarks* (millions) $35.0 $35.0 $27.6 $27.5 $25.9 $23.7 $23.7 $22.1 $19.5 $18.3 $18.3 $18.2 $16.7 $16.3 $16.2 $15.6 $15.2 $14.6 $14.3 $14.2 $13.2 $12.7 $12.5 175 8. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNDING Table 8–6. COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES RECEIVED OVER 40 PERCENT OF UNSHARED* ACADEMIC EARMARKS IN 2001—Continued College or University 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology ................................................ University of Southern Mississippi ....................................................................... Montana State University at Bozeman ................................................................ Washington State University ................................................................................ University of Hawaii, Manoa ................................................................................ Medical University of South Carolina .................................................................. University of Miami ............................................................................................... State New Mexico Mississippi Montana Washington Hawaii South Carolina Florida * Totals do not include earmarks split among institutions, where the distribution was not specified. Number of Earmarks Received 7 11 17 18 20 3 4 Sum of Earmarks* (millions) $12.5 $11.8 $11.1 $10.5 $10.4 $10.0 $9.5 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE Federal credit programs offer direct loans and loan guarantees for a wide range of activities, primarily housing, education, business and rural development, and exports. At the end of 2001, there were $242 billion in Federal direct loans outstanding and $1,084 billion in loan guarantees. Through its insurance programs, the Federal Government insures bank, thrift, and credit union deposits up to $100,000, guarantees private defined-benefit pensions, and insures against other risks such as natural disasters. The Federal Government also enhances credit availability for targeted sectors indirectly through Government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs)—privately owned companies and cooperatives that operate under Federal charters. GSEs provide direct loans and increase liquidity by guaranteeing and securitizing loans. Some GSEs have become major players in the financial market. In 2001, the face value of GSE lending totaled $3.1 trillion. In return for serving social purposes, GSEs enjoy some privileges, which include eligibility of their securities to collateralize public deposits and be held in unlimited amounts by most banks and thrifts, exemption of their securities from SEC registration, exemption of their earnings from State and local income taxation, and ability to borrow from Treasury, at Treasury’s discretion, in amounts ranging up to $4 billion. These privileges leave many people with the impression that their securities are risk-free. GSEs, however, are not part of the Federal Government, and their securities are not federally guaranteed. By law, the GSEs’ securities carry a disclaimer of any U.S. obligation. The role and risk of these diverse programs critically depend on the state of financial markets. In recent I. years, financial markets have been changing fast because of rapid technological advances and active deregulation. The Federal Government, therefore, needs to reassess the extent and nature of credit and insurance programs more carefully in order to adapt those programs to rapidly changing financial markets. The rest of this chapter is organized as follows. • The first section analyzes the role of Federal credit and insurance programs. Federal programs play useful roles when market imperfections prevent the private market from efficiently providing credit and insurance. Financial evolution has partly corrected many imperfections and generally weakened the justification for Federal intervention. • The second section identifies four key criteria for evaluating Federal programs: objectives, economic justification, availability of alternative means, and efficiency. Recognizing that improving efficiency is an everlasting concern, this section pays particular attention to the issue, and also discusses Federal loan sales as a special issue in improving efficiency. • The third section reviews Federal credit programs and GSEs in four sectors: housing, education, business and community development, and exports. This section discusses program objectives, recent developments, and future plans for each program. • The final section describes Federal deposit insurance, pension guarantees, and disaster insurance in a context similar to that for credit programs. FEDERAL PROGRAMS IN CHANGING FINANCIAL MARKETS The Federal Role The roles of Federal credit and insurance programs can be broadly classified into two areas: helping disadvantaged groups and correcting market failures. Subsidized Federal credit programs redistribute resources from the general taxpayer to disadvantaged regions or segments of the population. Since disadvantaged groups can be assisted through other means, such as direct subsidies, the value of a credit or insurance program critically depends on the extent to which it corrects market failures. In most cases, private lending and insurance business efficiently meets societal demands by allocating resources to the most productive uses, and Federal intervention is unnecessary or can even be distortionary. However, Federal intervention may improve the market outcome in some situations. The market imperfections that justify some Federal involvement can be broadly classified as follows. • Information opaqueness interferes with the optimal allocation of capital. In most cases, financial intermediaries efficiently gather and process information needed to evaluate the creditworthiness of borrowers. However, there may be little objective information about some groups of borrowers such as start-up businesses, start-up farmers, and students, who have limited incomes and credit histories. Because it is difficult for those borrowers to prove their creditworthiness to a large number of lenders, they must rely on the subjective judgements of a few lenders. In this situation, many creditworthy borrowers may fail to obtain credit. Even for borrowers who are approved for credit, insufficient competition can result in higher inter- 177 178 est rates. Government intervention, such as loan guarantees, enable these groups of borrowers to obtain credit more easily and cheaply and provides an opportunity for the lender to become more comfortable with that group of borrowers. Similarly, the private sector efficiently insures against various risks. Insurance companies estimate the expected loss based on probabilities of loss-generating events and charge adequate premiums. Private insurers, however, are reluctant to insure against an event for which they cannot reasonably estimate the probability and the magnitude of loss. Without these estimates, they cannot adequately set the premium. Terrorism emerged as one of these cases after the September 11 attacks. In these cases, Government intervention limiting uncertainties for the private sector may be necessary to ensure the provision of insurance. • Externalities cause either underinvestment or overinvestment in some sectors. Individuals and private entities do not make socially optimal decisions when they do not capture the full benefit (positive externalities) or bear the full cost (negative externalities) of their activities. Examples of positive and negative externalities are education and pollution. The general public benefits from high productivity and good citizenship of a welleducated person and suffers from pollution. Without Government intervention, people will invest less than the socially optimal amount in activities that generate positive externalities and more in activities that generate negative externalities. The Federal Government can encourage activities involving positive externalities by offering subsidized credit or other rewards such as tax benefits and discourage activities involving negative externalities by imposing taxes or other penalties. Alternatively, the Government may offer credit or direct subsidies to encourage activities reducing negative externalities (e.g., pollution control). • Resource constraints sometimes limit the private sector’s ability to offer certain products. Deposit insurance is one example. Since the performance of banks is often affected by common factors such as macroeconomic conditions, bank failures tend to be clustered in bad economic times. Furthermore, if depositors become doubtful about the soundness of the banking system as a whole upon observing a large number of failures, they may rush to withdraw deposits, forcing even sound banks into liquidation. To prevent these undesirable withdrawals, which would harm the whole economy, deposit insurance needs to be backed by a sufficient fund to resolve a very large number of failures. It may be difficult for private insurers to secure such a large fund. Some catastrophic events can also threaten the solvency of private insurers. For some events involving a small risk of a very large loss, therefore, Government insurance commanding more resources can be more ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES credible and effective. Another form of resource constraint is a liquidity constraint. It is usually difficult for a private entity to raise a large amount in a short time. The funding difficulty can limit the private market’s ability to extend credit and thereby disrupt economic activity. The Federal Government can prevent economic disruption by providing liquidity in illiquid sectors or during illiquid periods. • Imperfect competition justifies some Government intervention. Competition is imperfect in some markets because of barriers to entry, economies of scale, and foreign government intervention. For example, legal barriers to entry or geographic isolation can cause imperfect competition in some rural areas. If the lack of competition forces some rural residents to pay excessively high interest on loans, Government lending programs aiming to increase the availability of credit and lower the borrowing cost for those rural residents may improve economic efficiency. Changing Financial Markets Financial markets have undergone many changes in recent years. The most fundamental developments are financial services deregulation and technological advances, which have promoted competition and economic efficiency. Deregulation and technological advances have led to many important developments. Deregulation has promoted consolidation by removing legal barriers to business combinations. By increasing the availability of information and lowering transaction costs, technological advances have significantly contributed to enhancing liquidity, refining risk management tools, and spurring globalization. The current economic downturn, however, can temporarily interrupt these trends. Financial services deregulation has promoted competition by removing geographic and industry barriers. Active deregulation at the state level substantially removed restrictions on interstate banking and intrastate branching in the 1980s and early 1990s. At the Federal level, the full implementation of the RiegleNeal Interstate Banking and Branching Act in 1997 essentially removed geographic barriers. The Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 has repealed the provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act and the Bank Holding Company Act that restricted the affiliation between banks, securities firms, and insurance companies. The Act allows financial holding companies to engage in various financial activities, including traditional banking, securities underwriting, insurance underwriting, asset securitization, and financial advising. As a result, competition has become nationwide and across all financial products. Advances in communication and information processing technology have made the evaluation of borrowers’ creditworthiness more accurate and lowered the cost of financial transactions. Lenders now have easy access to large databases, powerful computers, and sophisticated analytical models. Thus, many lenders use 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE credit scoring models that evaluate creditworthiness based on various borrower characteristics derived from extensive credit bureau data. As a result, lending decisions have become more accurate and objective. Powerful computing and communication devices have also lowered the cost of financial transactions by producing new transaction methods such as electronic fund transfers, Internet banking, and Internet brokerage. The development of reliable screening methods and efficient transaction methods have resulted in intense competition for creditworthy borrowers and narrowed lending margins. Financial institutions are more willing to compete for customers with diverse characteristics, customers in distant areas, and small profit opportunities. A notable example of increased competition is the credit card business, where offering lower rates to lower-risk customers has become much more common in recent years. Consolidation among financial institutions, especially banks, has been very active due to deregulation and increased competition. Because of active consolidation, the number of banks has sharply decreased, and the concentration of assets has increased. At the end of calendar 2000, there were about 8,300 commercial banks, which represented a decrease by over 4,000 or 33 percent from the end of calendar 1990. The top 10 banks controlled 37 percent of banking assets at the end of calendar 2000, compared with 21 percent at the end of calendar 1990. Consolidation across traditional industry boundaries has produced financial holding companies that control multiple types of financial institutions. The leading example is Citigroup encompassing the commercial banking (Citibank), insurance (Travelers), and securities (Salomon Smith Barney) businesses. Direct capital market access by borrowers has become more common. Advances in communication and information processing technology enabled many companies (less-established medium-sized companies, as well as large well-known ones) to validate their financial information at low costs and to borrow directly in capital markets, instead of relying on banks. In particular, commercial paper (short-term financing instruments issued by corporations) has been very popular. In the 1990s, growth of commercial paper substantially outpaced growth of bank business loans. The current economic slowdown, however, has had a much larger negative effect on growth of commercial paper than on growth of bank business loans. Nonbank financial institutions, such as finance companies and venture capital firms, increased their market share, partly thanks to advanced communications and information processing technology that helped to level the playing field. Over the last decade, both consumer loans and business loans have been growing at finance companies faster than at commercial banks. The growth of venture capital firms was rather phenomenal. Between calendar 1995 and calendar 2000, their new investments, which were mostly in small firms’ equity, increased more than 17-fold (from $6 bil- 179 lion to $104 billion). Due to the economic downturn and the slumping stock market, venture capital investments in calendar 2001 decreased to less than half of the calendar 2000 level, but were still several times as much as those in the mid-1990s. Internet-based financial intermediaries provide financial services more cheaply and widely. The Internet lowers the cost of financial transactions and reduces the importance of physical location. Internet brokers slashed the commission on stock trading. Internet-only banks, which started appearing recently, bid up deposit interest rates. Furthermore, their services are nationwide. The Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act of 2000, which eliminates legal barriers to the use of electronic technology to sign contracts, should accelerate the growth of transactions over the Internet. Securitization (pooling a certain type of asset and selling shares of the asset pool to investors) is a financial instrument produced by technological advances. Increased transparency of asset quality created demand for securitized assets. Securitization has enhanced liquidity in financial markets by enabling lenders to raise funds without borrowing or issuing equity. It also helps financial institutions to reduce risk exposure to a particular line of business. Commonly securitized assets include credit card loans, automobile loans, and residential mortgages, whose quality can be more objectively analyzed. In recent years, financial institutions began securitizing to a very limited extent many other assets such as commercial mortgages and small business loans, the riskiness of which is more difficult to evaluate. Financial derivatives, such as options, swaps, and futures, have improved investors’ ability to manage risk (either increase or decrease risk exposure). Financial institutions and some other types of companies are increasingly using these relatively new instruments to manage various types of risk such as interest rate risk, credit risk, price risk, and even catastrophe-related risk. The interest rate swap, for example, is an effective tool to reduce a firm’s exposure to interest rate movements. However, a firm can also use an interest rate swap to take interest risk. Interest rate swaps are widely used now. After the September 11 attacks, catastrophe bonds drew some attention as a potential means to manage a large risk. This derivative offers yields higher than market interest rates. If a specified catastrophe occurs, however, the bondholders lose a part or all of the principal, depending on the size of the damage. In this contract, the higher yield and the loss of principal respectively are equivalent to the insurance premium and the insurance payout. In this way, the potential large loss can be spread among a large number of investors, instead of a few insurance companies. The size of the catastrophe bond market, however, is still very small. Globalization has been accelerating as a result of the reduced importance of geographic proximity and knowledge of local markets. Both commercial and in- 180 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES vestment banking institutions headquartered in Europe and Japan are actively competing in the U.S. market, and many U.S. financial institutions have branches worldwide. The current economic downturn has increased loan delinquency rates and bankruptcies. The delinquency rate of business loans at banks averaged 2.9 percent during the first three quarters of calendar 2001, compared with 2.2 percent in calendar 2000. The increases in delinquency rates were modest for consumer loans (from 3.6 to 3.7 percent) and real estate loans (from 1.9 to 2.1 percent). Between 2000 and 2001, however, personal bankruptcy filings increased 14.1 percent, which was much faster than the 6.6 percent increase in business bankruptcy filings. Jitters about credit quality reduced the supply of business credit in the private market, especially from nonbank sources such as commercial paper. The stock market bust also increased the cost of equity financing, especially for start-ups that relied on venture capital. For households, credit conditions remained relatively easy, partly thanks to the continued strength of the housing market. Implications for Federal Programs In general, financial evolution has increased the private market’s capacity to serve the populations traditionally targeted by Federal programs and hence weakened the role of Federal credit and insurance programs. Thus, it may be desirable to focus on narrower target populations that still have difficulty in obtaining credit from private lenders and on more specific objectives that have been less affected by financial evolution. Information about borrowers is more widely available and easier to process, thanks to technological advances. Credit scoring models, for example, enable lenders to screen many borrowers at low cost and to make more accurate lending decisions. As a result, creditworthy borrowers are less likely to be turned down, while borrowers that are not creditworthy are less likely to be approved for credit. The Federal role of improving credit allocation, therefore, is generally not as strong as before. The benefit from financial evolution, however, can be uneven across groups and over time. Large financial institutions with global operations, which are products of consolidation, may want to focus more on large customers and business lines that utilize economies of scale and scope more fully. Thus, some small borrowers, who used to rely heavily on the private information of small institutions, can be underII. served. In an economic downturn, lenders can be overly cautious, leaving out some creditworthy borrowers. The Federal Government may need to better target those underserved groups, while reducing general involvement. Externalities have not been significantly affected by financial evolution. The private market fundamentally relies on decisions at the individual level. Thus, it is inherently difficult for the private market to correct problems related to externalities. Resource constraints have been alleviated. Securitization and financial derivatives facilitate fund raising and risk sharing. By securitizing loans and writing derivatives contracts, a lender can make a large amount of risky loans, while limiting its risk exposure. An insurer can distribute the risk of a natural or manmade catastrophe among a large number of investors through catastrophe-related derivatives, although the extent of risk sharing in this way is limited due to the small size of the catastrophe bond market. Imperfect competition is much less likely in general. Developments that contributed to increasing competition are financial deregulation, direct capital market access by borrowers, stronger presence of nonbank financial institutions, emergence of Internet-based financial institutions, and globalization. Consolidation has a potential negative effect on competition, especially in markets that were traditionally served by small institutions. Given that the Nation still has many banks and other financial institutions, the negative effect, if any, should be insignificant overall. It is possible, however, that some communities in remote rural areas and inner city areas have been adversely affected by consolidation. Uncertainties about the Federal Government’s liability have increased in some areas. Consolidation has increased bank size, and deregulation has allowed banks to engage in many risky activities. Thus, the loss to the deposit insurance funds can turn out to be unusually large in some bad years. The potential loss needs to be limited by large insurance reserves and effective regulation. The large size of some GSEs is also a potential problem. Financial trouble of a large GSE could cause strong repercussions in financial markets, affecting federally insured entities and economic activity. The current economic downturn also makes it more difficult to estimate the costs of credit and insurance programs because they can change abruptly. A CROSS-CUTTING ASSESSMENT To systematically assess Federal programs, policymakers and program managers need to consider the following questions. (1) Are the programs’ objectives still worthwhile? (2) Is the program economically justified? (3) Is the credit or insurance program the best way to achieve the goals? (4) Is the program operating efficiently and effectively? If the answer is ‘‘No’’ to any of the first three questions, the program should be eliminated or phased out. For programs that pass the three tests, the focus should be on improving efficiency and effectiveness. 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE Objectives The first step in reassessing Federal credit and insurance programs is to identify clearly the objective of each program, such as an increase in homeownership, an increase in college graduates, an increase in jobs, or an increase in exports. The objective must be worthwhile to justify a program. For some programs, the objective might be unclear or of low importance. In some other cases, an initially worthwhile objective might have become obsolete. For example, the main objective of the Rural Telephone Bank is to increase telephone service in rural areas. This was a worthwhile objective when many rural residents had limited or costly access to telephone service. In the current environment with ample supply of telephone lines and intense competition among telephone companies, however, the objective may be obsolete. Economic Justifications For a credit or insurance program to be economically justified, the program’s benefits must exceed its costs. The benefits are the net effects of the program on intended outcomes compared with what would have occurred in the absence of the program. They exclude, for example, gains that would have been obtained with private credit in the absence of the program. Financial evolution may have significantly affected the net benefit from some programs. Suppose, for example, that financial evolution made information about borrowers transparent in some sectors where information opaqueness had been a major problem. Then the net benefit would be substantially smaller for the Federal programs that were mainly intended to solve the information problem in those sectors. Many Federal credit and insurance programs involve subsidy costs, and all of them incur administrative costs. A subsidy cost occurs when the beneficiaries of a program do not pay enough to cover the cost to the Federal Government (e.g., they pay below-cost interest rates and below-cost fees). The administrative costs include the costs of loan origination, direct loan servicing, and guaranteed loan monitoring. The net benefit of a program can be smaller than the combined cost of subsidy and administration either because it is inherently costly to pursue the program’s goal or because the program is inefficiently managed (failure to maximize the benefit and minimize the cost). The program should be discontinued in the first case and restructured in the second case. Alternatives Even a program that is economically justified should be discontinued if there is a better way to achieve the same goals. The Federal Government has other means to achieve social and economic goals, such as providing direct subsidies, offering tax benefits, and encouraging private institutions to provide the intended services. In general, direct subsidies are more efficient than credit programs for the purpose of fulfilling social objectives such as helping low-income people, as opposed 181 to economic objectives such as improving credit allocation. Direct subsidies are less likely to interfere with the efficient allocation of resources. Suppose that the Government makes a subsidized loan to be used for a specific project. Then the borrower will undertake the project if its return is greater than the subsidized rate. Thus, the subsidized loan can induce the borrower to undertake a normally unprofitable project and hence result in a social loss. On the other hand, a direct subsidy is a simple income transfer, which is less likely to cause a social loss. To a certain extent, the Federal Government can also correct market failures by helping the private market to improve efficiency, instead of directly offering credit or insurance. For example, policies encouraging the standardization of information (e.g., standardization of loan origination documents) may improve the private lenders’ ability to serve those sectors where information is opaque. Standardization helps to reduce opaqueness by facilitating information processing. With reduced opaqueness, loan sales should be easier, and the secondary market should develop more quickly. Then the lending market would be more liquid and competitive. A more specific example is the development of floodplain maps by the National Flood Insurance Program. Before the development of the maps, private insurance companies had little information on flood risks by geographic area. The lack of information was a main reason why private companies were unwilling to insure against flood risk. Improving Efficiency Some programs may be well-justified based on the three criteria above. However, few programs may be perfectly designed or managed. It is almost impossible to take all relevant factors into consideration at the beginning. In addition, financial evolution can lower the efficiency of initially well-designed and well managed programs. Thus, improving efficiency is an everlasting concern. Although the ways to improve efficiency vary across programs, there are some general categories and principles that apply to most programs. Pricing (setting appropriate lending terms or insurance premiums) is a critical part of credit and insurance programs. If program managers fail to accurately estimate the default and prepayment probabilities for a credit program and the loss probability for an insurance program, the program may be mispriced, and the actual subsidy may substantially deviate from the intended subsidy. To improve the estimation accuracy, using advanced analytical tools is important, especially for some programs, for which pricing involves many complications. An inappropriate intended subsidy rate can also impair program efficiency. If a program’s subsidy is too small, the intended population may be discouraged from using the program. On the other hand, an excessive subsidy may attract unintended customers. Some programs are inherently difficult to price. To price deposit insurance, for example, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) needs to estimate 182 bank failure probabilities, which are highly changeable. An unexpected event can cause many failures, and the banking business changes over time, introducing new risks. FDIC recently made a constructive proposal to improve deposit insurance pricing. Agencies dealing with complicated pricing need to continuously endeavor to refine pricing. In many cases, utilizing both historical experience and sophisticated analytical tools may be necessary. Private sector participation may also help the pricing of complicated programs. Federal agencies can make risk-sharing arrangements with private firms that may have better pricing expertise and derive information from the private firms’ pricing. The subsidy rate and the manner in which subsidies are provided can also affect program efficiency. The Farm Service Agency (FSA) offers agricultural loans at Treasury rates to borrowers who have been denied credit by private lenders. Since Treasury rates are lower than market rates for creditworthy borrowers, this pricing strategy can attract borrowers who can obtain credit elsewhere. It is possible that some creditworthy borrowers are denied credit by chance or by misrepresentation. One solution to this problem is to make loans at the market rate for average borrowers, which would still subsidize the intended population with low credit ratings. When further subsidies to the disadvantaged are desirable, the Government may supplement the loans with direct subsidies. Another pricing issue arises when the Government relies on private intermediaries. The student loan guarantee program sets the interest rate that participating lenders receive, which differs from the rate that students pay. While an unattractively low lender rate set by the Government would reduce participation, an excessively high rate would unnecessarily increase the cost of the program. A similar problem exists for the crop insurance program. Private insurance companies sell and service crop insurance policies, and the Federal Government reimburses the private companies for the administrative expenses and reinsures them for excess insurance losses. Excessive profits of private companies are also possible in this case. One way to deal with this problem is to carefully examine the profit of participating intermediaries. An alternative is to set the price through competitive bidding. Targeting the right population is also an important element of program efficiency. The net benefit will increase if program managers more successfully identify the populations that would benefit more from credit and insurance programs and reach out to them. Right populations include borrowers who have worthwhile projects but have difficulty in obtaining private credit (e.g., beginning farmers, new businesses, new exporters), populations underserved by the private market (e.g., low-income, minority), underserved neighborhoods (e.g., rural, inner city), and legislatively targeted populations (e.g., students, veterans). In addition to making credit available, program managers need to actively inform potential borrowers of the credit availability and provide high-quality customer services, so that igno- ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES rance or inconvenience does not deter the targeted populations from accessing the program. Federal credit programs can also play a more useful role when there is temporary inefficiency in the private market. The financial market can occasionally face a liquidity crisis or become overly pessimistic (e.g., at the time of the Asian financial crisis and the near collapse of Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund). Economic downturns can also reduce the credit available from private sources, as evidenced by declines in commercial paper and venture capital investment in 2001. On those occasions, Federal agencies can promote the extension of credit to creditworthy borrowers. While outreaching, program managers should avoid overreaching, which would waste taxpayers’ money. While targeting may not be a problem for some welldefined programs, such as deposit insurance and student loan programs, it can be a major concern for many programs that serve broader purposes, such as housing, business, and international programs. Given that private lenders have been reaching out to more traditionally underserved homebuyers, for example, there are ever increasing needs for Federal housing agencies to improve their focus on the populations that may still be underserved by the private market, such as minorities and inner city residents. In the agricultural sector, FSA provides loan guarantees to many borrowers who have access to private credit. To improve program efficiency, FSA needs to focus on borrowers who would benefit most from the government program (for example, helping more small, beginning farmers and fewer large, established farmers). The Small Business Administration (SBA) faces a similar problem. Given that the definition of small business is not really tight, access to private credit may differ widely across small businesses. It is an ongoing challenge for SBA to focus more narrowly on start-ups and very small businesses, which may have more difficulty in obtaining credit without Government assistance. Even when the target population is fairly well defined, a program can extend its role beyond the original mission. The housing program of the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), of which the main purpose is to help veterans, offers direct loans to the purchasers of foreclosed VA homes, who are not veterans. The loans do not necessarily increase the cost to the government if the favorable lending terms positively influence sale prices. Nevertheless, the loans to the general public can be considered as overreaching. The program also allows veterans to obtain the subsidized loans more than once. Provided that the primary goal of the program is to help disadvantaged veterans right out of the military, repeated offers of subsidized loans may be unnecessary in many cases. Rural Utilities Service (RUS) offers credit to utility providers serving rural areas. Once the eligibility is determined, however, requalification is not required for new loans. This lax rule enables some borrowers, where rural areas have become urban after the first loan, to obtain new loans to support both rural and urban areas. 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE Targeting too narrowly can also be a problem. Export credit provided by the Export-Import Bank is highly concentrated to a few large exporters. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) has been primarily assisting large U.S. companies investing abroad. In these cases, reaching out to smaller exporters and investors might improve program efficiency. Risk management needs to be effective to limit the cost of credit and insurance programs. Careful screening of borrowers would reduce the default risk. Although the goal of most credit programs is not to lend to the most creditworthy borrowers, it is important to identify relatively more creditworthy borrowers even among those who might be denied credit by private lenders. Other key elements of risk management include monitoring existing borrowers and collecting defaulted loans. One way to improve screening, monitoring, and collecting is to use advanced analytical tools such as credit scoring and to maintain useful data bases. In some cases, the private sector may perform those tasks more efficiently. Then delegation would be an effective strategy. For example, if banks are better at screening some opaque borrowers because of their extensive experience with those borrowers, Federal agencies may delegate the screening of those borrowers to banks with appropriate risk-sharing arrangements. Technological advances have significantly improved the screening of borrowers, especially in the housing market, where standardizing information is relatively easy. Private lenders process loans efficiently using automated and sophisticated tools. Federal agencies targeting the populations that are largely served by the private sector need to be alert to catch up with rapid technological advances. Falling behind, they could be left with riskier borrowers. Analytical models also play an important role in monitoring borrowers and insurance policyholders. Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation (PBGC) has an Early Warning Program designed to identify weak industries and companies. The program, which facilitates early intervention and negotiations, has been fairly successful in reducing insurance losses. Since standardizing information is still difficult for small business, banks with extensive business relationships may have advantages in screening borrowers. The Small Business Administatin (SBA), which guarantees small business loans, delegates credit evaluation with some risk-sharing arrangements. SBA has been strengthening the delegation through its Preferred Lender Program, which has shown some success in reducing default rates. However, since designing optimal risk-sharing arrangements is a challenging task, SBA and other Federal agencies delegating credit evaluation to private lenders should keep trying to develop finer risk-sharing arrangements. Delegation of loan servicing is generally desirable, but it should be accompanied by close monitoring of contractors. VA lets private servicers track the performance of VA loans. VA, however, is not notified of delinquencies until loans are 60 to 90 days overdue. Closer 183 monitoring might help to reduce the default rate of VA loans. The performance of private contractors may also be improved through performance-based contracting. The Department of Education (ED) relies on private contractors for collecting defaulted student loans. ED lets multiple debt collectors compete for the loan volume by assigning more loans to the best performers. This performance-based contracting has helped to increase the collection of defaulted loans. Cost control is a concern for all types of organizations. For Federal credit and insurance programs, key elements include delivery and servicing costs, in addition to the general administration cost. There are many ways for Federal agencies to save costs. They may streamline the delivery system, computerize loan servicing, and eliminate redundant servicing facilities. In cases where the private sector is more efficient in some specific functions such as loan servicing, it may be best to contract out those functions. When several Federal agencies serve similar purposes, inter-agency cooperation can result in a substantial cost saving. The student loan guarantee program involves multiple layers of private and public institutions. There may be an opportunity to streamline the delivery system and save on administrative cost. SBA operates multiple loan servicing centers throughout the Nation. Given that advances in communication technology have reduced the importance of physical presence for loan servicing, consolidating some of those facilities might reduce costs without sacrificing customer service. ED contracts out the servicing of direct student loans. Since many private institutions are more experienced with loan servicing than the Government, contracting out can be more cost-effective in many cases. To realized the potential cost savings, however, Federal agencies need to use well-designed competitive bidding and incentive arrangements, as well as to monitor the quality of service. Without these appropriate steps, contracting out could represent more of a private opportunity for a windfall gain than of the Government’s opportunity for a cost saving. The Federal Housing Administration and SBA have been selling loans to private financial institutions. Provided that private institutions are more efficient in loan servicing, loan sales should help to save servicing and administrative costs. Welldesigned competitive bidding is important in this case, as well. There are several Federal agencies that are involved in home-purchase financing and several agencies that provide export-related credit. In these cases, substantial cost saving can be achieved through sharing data bases, exchanging expertise, and consolidating redundant operations. Housing agencies have been sharing data, but to a limited extent. International credit agencies use a common risk assessment system. There may remain many cost-saving opportunities that can be realized through fuller cooperation. Initiative plays an important role in a rapidly changing environment. Information technology and fi- 184 nancial markets have been changing rapidly. To achieve the maximum efficiency, program managers need to closely watch and quickly adapt their programs to new developments. Tardy responses to changes in information technology may mean missed opportunities for improving risk management and reducing costs. Financial market developments also have important implications. For example, many loans guaranteed by the Government are securitized. Securitization may reduce the lenders’ incentives to screen and monitor borrowers if they believe that guaranteeing agencies do not properly track the performance of securitized loans. To prevent this adverse effect, the Government needs well-organized databases and modern monitoring systems. Private lenders are more willing to serve many customers to whom they did not want to lend in the past. Thus, some Federal credit programs may need to focus more narrowly on customers who are still underserved by private lenders. Without agencies’ initiative, needed adjustments might be substantially delayed. Federal agencies have been active in initiating automation and Internet-based services. PBGC has a pilot project that enables participants in certain PBGCtrusteed plans to calculate their approximate benefits online. VA recently developed web-based application that allows lenders to obtain appraiser assignments and loan numbers for VA loan applications. ED has undertaken an automation and modernization initiative to streamline the management of student financial assistance programs. Rural Utilities Service has made many forms available for download at its website. Many agencies have proposed to develop analytical models to improve risk management. SBA has been developing a loan monitoring system and an advanced subsidy-estimation model. Rural Housing Service have been working on models to evaluate the creditworthiness of borrowers. However, the progress has been slow in many cases. There have also been proposals for regulatory changes. FDIC recently made reform proposals ranging from merging bank and thrift insurance funds to refining risk-based premiums. FHA recently proposed a rule that would help to reduce fraudulent practices in the housing market. In general, however, credit and insurance agencies have not been very active in proposing regulatory changes. Given that individual agencies are on the frontiers of detecting changes in market conditions, they may need to take a more active role in bringing about regulatory changes that would improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their programs. Federal Loan Asset Sales: A Current Issue in Improving Efficiency Federal loan asset sales provide an opportunity for agencies to achieve many of the efficiency gains already discussed. For programs where loan asset sales are appropriate, sales can free up existing agency resources to better serve their target population, lower the risk exposure of the Federal government, and create better overall management of Federal loan assets. In addition, ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES while outsourcing specific functions, such as loan servicing, to the private sector has shown cost savings to the Government, outsourcing requires careful monitoring of the contractor. By selling the asset outright to the private sector, Federal agencies can further reduce administrative costs. At the end of 2000, the Federal Government held loan assets valued at $241 billion. Of the $241 billion, $208 billion were direct loans, and $33 billion were guaranteed loans acquired by the Federal Government after default. Both types of loans are eligible to be sold. Sale of Federal loan assets can provide several benefits to the Federal Government: revenues from sales, administrative cost savings, and management improvements. In a time of tight budgetary resources, it makes good sense to free up agency resources for redirection to core Governmental functions and outsource activities that are more efficiently done by the private sector. Agencies can use the freed-up financial and human resources to better target new lending to the right population, better manage the remaining portfolio, and improve technological areas where they are lagging, such as loan servicing and credit screening. The Debt Collection Improvement Act of 1996 (DCIA), which authorizes agencies to sell debt that is over 90 days delinquent, grew out of an increased recognition of the Government’s inefficiency at managing poorly performing assets. For example, some agencies did not have a policy in place to take action when borrowers were delinquent or in default. The lack of an adequate policy resulted in unnecessarily large losses to the Government. In implementing the DCIA, OMB Circular A–129 imposes a more stringent rule requiring agencies to sell loans that are over one year delinquent and loans for which collection action has been terminated. Circular A–129 also recommends that agencies develop plans for selling performing loans, thereby using asset sales as a portfolio management tool. To effectively conduct loan sales, agencies need to establish policies and procedures for tracking both performing and non-performing loans. These efforts will also help to improve overall portfolio management, resulting in reduced default rates and better cost estimates for future loans. Agencies may also acquire knowledge that helps to decide outsourcing of some functions such as loan servicing and liquidation. The bulk of Federal loan assets are held by five Federal credit agencies: Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Agriculture, Department of Education, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), and the Small Business Administration (SBA). To date, two agencies, FHA and SBA, have conducted loan asset sales, selling non-performing loans, which satisfies the DCIA provisions of selling delinquent loans, and selling performing loans as well. Successful sales to date by these two agencies have shown that loan assets can be priced advantageously to both the Government and the private sector due to the private sector’s expertise and scale economies in loan servicing. Both agencies are currently planning future sales. The sales to date 185 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE have generated revenue for the Government, while reducing the costs of maintaining and liquidating those assets. Other benefits of asset sales include the transfer of resources from certain credit program functions that III. are not inherently Governmental to core Governmental functions that are essential in carrying out the mission and overall improvements in asset management. CREDIT IN FOUR SECTORS Housing Credit Programs and GSEs The Federal Government makes direct loans, provides loan guarantees, and enhances liquidity in the housing market to promote homeownership among low- and moderate-income people and to help finance rental housing for low-income people. While direct loans are largely limited to low-income borrowers, loan guarantees are offered to a much larger segment of the population, including moderate-income borrowers. Increased liquidity achieved through GSEs benefits virtually all borrowers in the housing market, although it helps low and moderate-income borrowers more. The main government agencies and GSEs involved in housing finance are the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the Department of Agriculture (USDA), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Bank System. In 2001, HUD, VA, and USDA supported $219 billion of direct loans and loan guarantees, contributing to a record high homeownership rate of 68.1 percent. Roughly one out of six singlefamily mortgages originated in the United States receives assistance from one of these programs. Federal Housing Administration HUD’s Federal Housing Administration (FHA) operates several insurance funds, the largest of which is the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund. FHA mortgage insurance is directed to expanding access to homeownership for people who lack the financial resources or credit history to qualify for a conventional home mortgage. In 2001, FHA insured $107 billion in mortgages for almost 1 million households, 10 percent more households than in 2000. The dollar volume of mortgages exceeded 2000 by 24 percent, partially driven by the rapid increase in house prices and low interest rates. FHA has contributed significantly to the recent homeownership gains, but its target population of first-time home buyers is most at risk of surrendering these gains. After increasing significantly since 1994, the share of FHA’s home purchase mortgages going to firsttime home buyers and minority households dropped slightly in 2001. FHA helped its borrowers retain their homes by increasing use of loss mitigation tools (such as lender forbearance, loan modification, and partial claims) by 62 percent over the previous year. The Budget will further protect home buyers from losing their homes by expanding HUD homeownership counseling to nearly twice as many families. HUD delivers both pre- and post-purchase counseling services through a network of counseling agencies. Congress enacted a 2002 Budget proposal to allow FHA to insure a financial product that has gained popularity in the conventional market—hybrid adjustablerate mortgages. Congress also clarified HUD’s legal authority to operate FHA Credit Watch—a lender monitoring program that rates lenders by the performance of the loans they underwrite and allows FHA to sever relationships with those showing poor performance. Credit Watch is critical to protect the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund from unexpected losses due to mismanagement and fraud. FHA combats fraud on many fronts, including predatory lending. The President’s Management Agenda sets out several critical tasks for FHA to improve its risk management. FHA issued a proposed rule in 2001 that would prevent the predatory practice of property flipping, in which a lender and an appraiser conspire to sell a home at a falsely inflated price, thereby victimizing the borrower and exposing FHA to excessive losses. The Department is considering other regulatory changes to help prevent predatory lending. FHA Neighborhood Watch helps home buyers help themselves by providing an internet-accessible lender monitoring system. The system tracks each lender’s defaults, by neighborhood, enabling a mortgage shopper to identify lenders with good records of mortgage performance in the shopper’s local area. Lenders with high rates of defaulted loans are flagged as potential problems. The system also helps the industry self-police; other financial institutions are unlikely to purchase FHA loans from a lender identified by Neighborhood Watch as high risk. VA Housing Program The VA assists veterans, members of the Selected Reserve, and active duty personnel to purchase homes as a recognition of their service to the Nation. The program substitutes the Federal guarantee for the borrower’s down payment. In 2001, VA provided $31 billion in guarantees to assist 252,700 borrowers. Both the volume of guarantees and the number of borrowers increased substantially from 2000 as lower interest rates increased loan originations and refinancings in the housing market. Since the main purpose of this program is to help veterans, lending terms are more favorable than market rates. In particular, VA guarantees zero down payment loans. As a result, the default rate is relatively high. The subsidy rate, however, declined slightly in 2001, thanks to efforts to reduce foreclosure rates and the strong housing market. In order to help veterans retain their homes and avoid the expense and damage to their credit resulting 186 from foreclosure, VA plans aggressive intervention to reduce the likelihood of foreclosures when loans are referred to VA after missing three payments. VA was successful in 40 percent of their 2001 interventions, and its goal is to maintain the 40 percent level in 2003. Future military base closures, however, may negatively affect the default rate in the VA guaranteed housing program. Guaranteed loans issued to active duty military and military reservists are vulnerable to the impact of base closures on the neighboring community. VA is continuing its efforts to reduce administrative costs through restructuring and consolidations. Rural Housing Service USDA’s Rural Housing Service (RHS) offers direct and guaranteed loans and grants to help very low- to moderate-income rural residents buy and maintain adequate, affordable housing. The single family guaranteed loan program guarantees up to 90 percent of a private loan for low to moderate-income rural residents. The program’s emphasis is on reducing the number of rural residents living in substandard housing. In 2001, $2.4 billion of guarantees went to 31,000 households, of which 30 percent went to low-income borrowers (with income 80 percent or less than median area income). For 2001, Congress statutorily increased the premium charged on the RHS single-family guarantees from 1 to 2 percent, which allowed RHS to provide more guarantees at less cost to the taxpayers. In the single family housing guaranteed loan program, lender monitoring and external audits have helped to identify program weaknesses, train servicers, and identify troubled lenders. RHS’s guaranteed loan program is also moving toward automated underwriting. In 2001, RHS continued to enhance an Internet-based system that will, with future planned improvements, provide the capacity to accept electronic loan originations from their participating lenders. Utilizing electronic loan origination technology will add significant benefits to loan processing efficiency and timeliness for RHS, the lenders, and customers. RHS continues to operate under the ‘‘best practice’’ for asset disposition for its guaranteed loan program. For single family guarantees, the lender is paid the loss claim, including costs incurred for up to three months after the default. After the loss claim is paid, RHS has no involvement in the loan, and it becomes the sole responsibility of the lender to dispose of the property. RHS programs differ from other Federal housing loan guarantee programs. RHS programs are means-tested and more accessible to low-income, rural residents. In addition, the RHS direct loan program offers deeper assistance to very-low-income homeowners by reducing the interest rate down to 1 percent for such borrowers. The program helps the ‘‘on the cusp’’ borrower obtain a mortgage, and requires graduation to private credit as the borrower’s income increases over time. The interest rate depends on the borrower’s income. Each loan is reviewed annually to determine the interest rate that ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES should be charged on the loan in that year based on the borrower’s actual annual income. The program cost is balanced between interest subsidy and defaults. For 2003, RHS expects to provide $1 billion in loans with a subsidy cost of 19.37 percent. Its most recent and ongoing servicing improvement effort has been the implementation of the Dedicated Loan Origination Service System (DLOS), which centralized the servicing and monitoring of the direct loan program. DLOS, in conjunction with 2 major regulations implemented between 1996 and 1997, reduced RHS’s direct loan subsidy rate by 40 percent. RHS has reduced default rates and losses. RHS also has less than 1,200 Real Estate Owned (REO) properties, which is less than 0.02 percent of the portfolio. RHS also offers multifamily housing loans. Direct loans are offered to private developers to construct and rehabilitate multi-family rental housing for very-low to low-income residents, elderly households, or handicapped individuals. These loans to developers are very heavily subsidized; the interest rate is between 1 and 2 percent. The Farm Labor Housing direct loans, which are similarly priced, help developers to provide rental units for minority farm workers and their families. RHS rental assistance grants supplement both of these loan programs in the form of project based rents for very low-income rural households (for renewals and new construction, the cost will be $712 million in 2003). RHS also offers guaranteed multifamily housing loans. RHS will address management issues in its multifamily housing portfolio in 2003 by restricting the $60 million loan level to repair and rehabilitation of it’s existing portfolio (17,800 projects, 459,000 units). They will also conduct a study on how to fund new construction in a more cost efficient manner with the expectation that new construction will be a priority for the funds in future budgets. Farm labor housing will have a program level of $53 million and will provide for new construction. Housing Finance Challenges and Opportunities Private banks, thrifts, and mortgage bankers, which originate the mortgages that FHA insures and VA and RHS guarantee, may deal with all three programs, as well as with the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae, an agency of the Department of Housing and Urban Development), which guarantees timely payment on securities based on pools of these mortgages. In addition, the same private firms originate conventional mortgages, many of which are securitized by Government-sponsored enterprises—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Many of these firms already use or are moving toward electronic loan origination and automated underwriting. Behind such underwriting are data warehouses that show default experience by type of loan, borrower characteristics, home location, originator, and servicer. Automated valuation models relate these factors to default cost, and provide comparative analysis of home sales data to estimate property collateral values with- 187 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE out relying on a human appraiser. After loan origination, software programs grade delinquent loans in terms of their credit and collateral risk and allow servicers to devote resources to the highest-risk loans. These technological developments offer challenges and opportunities to the Federal mortgage guarantors and Ginnie Mae. Federal credit program managers are challenged to make programs electronically accessible to their clients and loan originators. They are challenged to assess and monitor their risks more closely as private firms are reaching out to the better risks among their potential clients. They also have an opportunity to provide better service at a lower cost, to target their efforts to help borrowers retain their homes, and to reach further to bring affordable housing and homeownership opportunities to those who are not currently served. Data Sharing. Federal credit program managers are benefitting and would benefit more from additional data-sharing capability across the Government, which provides access to integrated information on program designs, borrower characteristics, and lender and loan performance. Loan Origination. Electronic underwriting provides convenient, faster service at a lower cost to both lenders and borrowers. Currently, both FHA and VA permit mortgage lenders to use approved automated underwriting systems, including Freddie Mac’s ‘‘Loan Prospector’’ and Fannie Mae’s ‘‘Desktop Underwriter,’’ to originate these loans. FHA, however, will soon deploy its ‘‘Total Scorecard.’’ By transitioning FHA’s third party lenders to its own automated scorecard, FHA will improve its program controls and credit management. RHS is currently developing its own system and scorecard. Performance Measurement. As in underwriting, private firms are heavily involved in servicing Government-backed mortgages. Measurement of the private sector’s servicing capacity is thus critical. The Government needs to improve its systems to measure this performance. For example, monthly data would not only give housing programs a better understanding of how their guarantee portfolios behave, but also serve as an early warning system and feedback mechanism. The Government could adjust underwriting standards or loan servicing requirements in quick response to changing market conditions. Managing Risk. Risk-based pricing is emerging in the conventional mortgage market as an important means by which lenders can take on more risk. Technology is giving lenders much more precise ability to assess the initial default risk associated with making a particular loan. This increasingly precise underwriting technology, in turn, allows lenders and insurers to adjust fees or loan rates to reflect risk accurately. Federal loan guarantee programs are assessing the impact of private sector customization on their loan port- folios, and adopting a similar pricing structure to avoid riskier customer composition and larger losses. FHA recently authorized annual premium cancellation at 78 percent loan-to-value ratio. Proceeding cautiously, FHA will next explore varied pricing for its mortgage insurance based on risk factors such as impaired credit or limited resources, for borrowers who currently do not qualify for FHA insurance, to help achieve the President’s goal of increasing homeownership. More flexible pricing would let FHA extend its reach and thereby enable more borrowers to purchase a first home at a reasonable mortgage cost. Asset Disposition. Common wisdom in the mortgage industry is to avoid foreclosure because that process involves significant losses, including costs for maintenance and marketing. Managers of Federal guarantee programs have found that the best practice is to allow the more experienced private sector to manage delinquent loans and dispose of properties. By 2003, FHA will move out of the property management business for the majority of its defaulted loans by implementing its statutory authority to accelerate the mortgage insurance claim process. The accelerated claim process will enable FHA to sell defaulted notes to the private sector for servicing and/or disposition, thereby reducing foreclosures and eliminating much of the acquisition of real property and increasing net recoveries by FHA. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were chartered by Congress to increase the liquidity of mortgages and to promote access to mortgage credit for households that historically have been underserved by private markets. They carry out this mission by purchasing and/or guaranteeing residential mortgages. The guaranteed loans are packaged for sale as mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are held by general investors, mortgage lenders, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac themselves. The two GSEs finance their acquisitions of loans and MBS assets by issuing debt. In September 2001, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had $2.6 trillion outstanding in mortgages that they had purchased or guaranteed. Of this, $1.2 trillion was held in the GSEs’ asset portfolios, and $1.4 trillion served as collateral for outstanding MBS not held in portfolio. Together, the two firms’ purchases of single-family mortgages averaged 63 percent of all conventional conforming mortgages originated in calendar years 1998–2000 measured by dollar value. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have grown faster than the mortgage market in recent years. From September 1997 to September 2001, their combined mortgage asset portfolios increased 150 percent in dollar volume, and their guarantees of MBS increased 40 percent. To fund their rapidly growing asset portfolios, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their outstanding debt. The GSEs’ combined debt outstanding rose from $518 billion at September 1997 to $1.26 trillion at the end of September 2001, an annualized growth rate of nearly 25 percent a year. 188 Increased guarantee volume and retained portfolios imply increased credit and interest rate exposure. In recent years, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have tried to limit their credit and interest rate risk using various risk management techniques such as credit enhancements, additional pool-level insurance supplementing primary mortgage insurance, long-term callable debt, interest rate swaps, and other hedging transactions. These risk management tools, however, do not eliminate all the risk associated with funding long-term, mostly fixed-rate assets that have uncertain payment streams. Furthermore, the hedging transactions transform credit or interest rate risk into counterparty risk (the risk that the counterparty of a hedging transaction fails to honor the contract). Thus, the GSEs’ management of counterparty risk is of increasing importance. The credit quality of mortgages owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has benefited in recent years from strong housing markets that have improved collateral values. More typical growth in house prices and a weaker economy might raise credit costs from the very low levels of recent years. The credit risk to the GSEs from new or outstanding loans is limited by their required use of mortgage insurance and other credit enhancements for loans with high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. Both GSEs are increasingly active purchasers of subprime loans, and mortgages with very high LTV ratios, which now range up to 100 percent. These loans tend to have more credit risk than the GSEs’ traditional mortgage purchases. The Federal Housing Enterprises Safety and Soundness Act of 1992 reformed Federal regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Act created the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) to conduct safety and soundness examinations and enforce minimum leverage and risk-based capital requirements on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Examinations of the GSEs and enforcement of leverage capital ratios have proceeded since OFHEO’s inception. Risk-based capital requirements were published in September 2001 and become fully enforceable in September 2002. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac took steps in 2001 to help the market identify any future change in their riskiness. The GSEs have committed to issue subordinated debt on a regular basis. Following a three-year phase-in period, subordinated debt will equal about 1.5 percent of their on-balance-sheet assets. Because holders of subordinated debt have a junior claim on the ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES assets of the GSEs, subordinated debt prices tend to be more sensitive to marginal changes in risk. The price of the GSEs’ subordinated debt, therefore, could provide a market signal of an increase in their riskiness. Because of the benefits derived from their unique Federal charters, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have lower costs of senior debt and obtain better pricing on securities’ issuance. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that, in 2000, these implicit subsidies combined with the GSEs’ tax and regulatory exemptions were worth $10.7 billion. According to the study (‘‘Federal Subsidies and the Housing GSEs,’’ May 2001), the GSEs passed along 64 percent of the $10.7 billion in implicit subsidy and tax and regulatory benefits to mortgage borrowers, while 36 percent accrued to the benefit of the shareholders and other stakeholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. One of the GSEs’ public purposes is to promote access to mortgage credit for low- and moderate-income families in underserved areas. Accordingly, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) establishes affordable housing goals for the GSEs. The goals effective for calendar years 2001–2003 require the following: • 50 percent of the total number of dwelling units financed by each GSE’s mortgage purchases are affordable by low- and moderate-income families (Low- and Moderate-Income Housing Goal); • 31 percent of the total number of dwelling units financed by each GSE’s mortgage purchases are in central cities, rural areas, and other metorpolitan areas with low and moderate income and high concentrations of minority residents (Geographically Targeted Goal); and • 20 percent of the total number of dwelling units financed by each GSE’s mortgage purchases are special affordable housing for very-low-income families and low-income families living in low-income areas (Special Affordable Goal). Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have met or exceeded the affordable housing goals since they were established in 1996. The GSEs’ achievements, however, do not surpass the level of affordable lending in the conventional market. By the most recent estimate available, the conventional market’s loans to low- and moderate-income families and families in underserved areas exceed the purchases of such mortgages by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (See the table ‘‘Mortgages to Target Populations.’’) 189 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE Mortgages to Target Populations (Percent) Low- and ModerateIncome Private market average* .................................................................... Freddie Mac in 2000 .......................................................................... Fannie Mae in 2000 ........................................................................... HUD Goal for GSEs in 2000 ............................................................. 56 50 49 42 Geographically Targeted Special Affordable Housing 33 29 31 24 28 21 19 14 Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). * Private market average 1995–98, the most recent market average available from HUD for the conventional conforming market. ‘‘HUD’s Regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; Final Rule,’’ Federal Register, October 31, 2000, page 65055. Federal Home Loan Bank System The Federal Home Loan Bank System (FHLBS) was established in 1932 to provide liquidity to home mortgage lenders. The FHLBS carries out this mission by issuing debt and using the proceeds to make advances (secured loans) to its members. Member institutions primarily secure advances with residential mortgages and other housing-related assets. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley (GLB) Act of 1999 repealed the requirement that federally chartered thrifts be members of the FHLBS. Membership is open to federally chartered and state-chartered thrifts, commercial banks, credit unions, and insurance companies on a voluntary basis. As of September 30, 2001, 7,897 financial institutions were FHLBS members, an increase of 177 over September 2000. About 73 percent of members are commercial banks, 19 percent are thrifts, and the remaining 8 percent are credit unions and insurance companies. However, 53.2 percent of outstanding FHLBS advances were held by thrifts as of September 30, 2001. The FHLBS reported net income of $2.1 billion for the year ending September 30, 2001, down from $2.2 billion in the previous 12 months. System capital rose from $30.6 billion to $33.1 billion, while the ratio of capital to assets remained unchanged at 4.8 percent. Average return on equity was about 6.6 percent. Outstanding advances reached $466.8 billion in September 2001, an 8.6 percent increase over the $429.8 billion outstanding a year earlier. As of September 30, 2001, about 64 percent of advances had a remaining maturity of greater than one year—up from 52 percent one year earlier. The GLB Act requires the System to adopt a riskbased capital structure. On October 26, 2001, the Federal Housing Finance Board (Finance Board) approved a revised final capital standards rule. The rule covers System governance, stock issuance, and risk-based and leverage capital requirements. These new capital standards, when fully implemented, will replace the current ‘‘subscription’’ capital structure for the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBanks) with one that includes both risk-based and minimum leverage requirements. Each Bank will also be required to adopt and implement a capital plan consistent with provisions of the GLB Act and Finance Board regulations. The GLB Act changed the FHLBanks’ annual payment towards the interest payments on bonds issued by the Resolution Funding Corporation (REFCorp) from $300 million annually to 20 percent of net earnings. The FHLBanks are required to pay the greater of 10 percent of net income or $100 million to the Affordable Housing Program (AHP) and to provide discounted advances for targeted housing and community investment lending through a Community Investment Program. The FHLBS’ exposure to credit risk on advances has traditionally been virtually nonexistent. All advances to member institutions are collateralized, and the FHLBanks can call for additional or substitute collateral during the life of an advance. No FHLBank has ever experienced a loss on an advance to a member. The System’s investment activities, including mortgage purchase programs, create more risks. To control the System’s risk exposure, the Finance Board has established regulations and policies that the FHLBanks must follow to evaluate and manage their credit and interest-rate risk. FHLBanks must file periodic compliance reports, and the Finance Board conducts an annual on-site examination of each FHLBank. Each FHLBank’s board of directors must establish risk-management policies that comport with Finance Board guidelines. The FHLBanks held $22.6 billion in mortgage loans on September 30, 2001, approximately 3.3 percent of total assets. The mortgage purchase programs offer members alternative ways of doing mortgage business. In one of these programs, the FHLBanks finance mortgage loans and assume the interest-rate and prepayment risks, while the members originate and service the loans and assume most of the credit risk. All assets held by an FHLBank under these mortgage purchase programs are required, pursuant to the terms of the program, to be credit enhanced to at least the level of an investment-grade security. In addition, an FHLBank must hold risk-based capital against mortgage assets that have credit risk equivalent to an instrument rated lower than double A. The FHLBanks’ investment activities also pose important public policy issues about the degree to which their asset composition adequately reflects the mission 190 ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES of the System. Although System investments other than advances rose to $194 billion through September 2001, compared to $178 billion a year earlier, as a percentage of total assets, those investments remained at 28 percent. Like other Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), the System issues debt securities at close to U.S. Treasury rates and invests the proceeds in higheryielding securities. In 2001, the FHLBS issued $4.9 trillion in debt securities. However, the majority of the debt issued by the System is overnight or short-term, but 73 percent of debt outstanding had an original maturity of one year or longer, and total debt outstanding was about $611 billion at the end of 2001. An enormous, liquid, and efficient capital market exists for conventional home mortgages today. As a result of GSEs, Ginnie Mae, and the increasing presence of private securitizers, lenders have access to substantial liquidity sources, in addition to FHLBS advances, for financing home mortgages. The GLB Act further increases access to the FHLBS for community financial institutions with $527 million or less in assets by permitting advance borrowings that provide funds for small businesses, small farms, and small agri-businesses. Education Credit Programs and GSEs The Federal Government guarantees loans through intermediary agencies and makes direct loans to students to encourage post-secondary education. The Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae), a GSE, securitizes guaranteed student loans. Student Loans The Department of Education helps to finance student loans through two major programs: the Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) program and the William D. Ford Federal Direct Student Loan (Direct Loan) program. Eligible institutions of higher education may participate in one or both programs. Loans are available to students regardless of income. Borrowers with low family incomes are eligible for higher interest subsidies. For need-based Stafford Loans, the Federal Government subsidizes interest costs while borrowers are in school, during a six-month grace period after graduation, and during certain deferment periods. In 2003, more than 6 million borrowers will receive nearly 11 million loans totaling $53 billion. Of this amount, nearly $41 billion is for new loans, and the remainder is to consolidate existing loans. Loan levels have risen dramatically over the past 10 years as a result of rising educational costs, higher loan limits, and more eligible borrowers. The Federal Family Education Loan program provides loans through an administrative structure involving over 3,500 lenders, 36 State and private guaranty agencies, roughly 50 participants in the secondary market, and approximately 4,000 participating schools. Under FFEL, banks and other eligible lenders loan private capital to students and parents, guaranty agencies insure the loans, and the Federal Government reinsures the loans against borrower default. In 2003, FFEL lenders will disburse more than 7 million loans exceeding $35 billion in principal. Lenders bear two percent of the default risk, and the Federal Government is responsible for the remainder. The Department also makes administrative payments to guaranty agencies and pays interest subsidies to lenders. The William D. Ford Direct Student Loan program was authorized by the Student Loan Reform Act of 1993. Under Direct Loans, the Federal Government pro- vides loan capital directly to roughly 1,200 schools, which then disburse loan funds to students. In 2003, the Direct Loan program will generate more than 3 million loans with a total value of over $18 billion. The program offers a variety of flexible repayment plans including income-contingent repayment, under which annual repayment amounts vary based on the income of the borrower and payments can be made over 25 years with any residual balances forgiven. Consolidation Loans, which allow borrowers to combine one or more FFEL, Direct Loan, or other Federal student loan into a single loan with a fixed interest rate, have grown dramatically in recent years. In 1995, Consolidation Loans totaled $3.6 billion, accounting for roughly 13 percent of overall student loan volume. In 2001, the program had grown to more than $17 billion, making up approximately 33 percent of all student loan volume. This trend, which reflects a nearly five fold increase from 1995 to 2001, is expected to stabilize. Consolidation Loans are projected to be $17 billion in 2002 and decrease to $12 billion in 2003. The 2001 spike in Consolidation Loan volume resulted from lower interest rates and a special discount offered to Direct Loan consolidators. For Fiscal Year 2003, the Administration is proposing to address the shortage of qualified, skilled math, science, and special education teachers in elementary and secondary schools by increasing the amount of forgivable guaranteed and direct student loans from $5,000 to $17,500 for highly qualified teachers who teach math, science, or special education for five years in high-need schools. This proposal builds upon the teacher loan forgiveness program authorized in the 1998 Higher Education Amendments. High-need schools would include those with a high concentration of lowincome students and those in which there is a large proportion of out-of-field math, science, and special education teachers. Sallie Mae The Student Loan Marketing Association (Sallie Mae) was charted by Congress in 1972 as a for-profit, shareholder-owned, Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE). Sallie Mae was privatized in 1997 pursuant to the au- 191 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE thority granted by the Student Loan Marketing Association Reorganization Act of 1996. The GSE is a wholly owned subsidiary of USA Education, Inc. and must wind down and be liquidated by September 30, 2008. The Omnibus Consolidated and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for 1999 allows the USA Education, Inc. to affiliate with a financial institution upon the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury. Any affiliation will require the holding company to dissolve the GSE within two years of the affiliation date (unless such period is extended by the Department of the Treasury). Sallie Mae makes funds available for student loans by providing liquidity to lenders participating in the FFEL program. Sallie Mae purchases guaranteed student loans from eligible lenders and makes warehousing advances (secured loans to lenders). Generally, under the privatization legislation, the GSE cannot engage in any new business activities or acquire any additional program assets other than purchasing student loans. The GSE can continue to make warehousing advances under contractual commitments existing on August 7, 1997. Sallie Mae currently holds approximately 42 percent of all outstanding guaranteed student loans. Business and Rural Development Credit Programs and GSEs The Federal Government guarantees small business loans to promote entrepreneurship. The Government also offers direct loans and loan guarantees to farmers who may have difficulty obtaining credit elsewhere and to rural communities that need to develop and maintain infrastructure. Two GSEs, the Farm Credit System (FCS) and the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (Farmer Mac), increase liquidity in the agricultural lending market. Small Business Administration The Small Business Administration (SBA), created in 1953, helps entrepreneurs start, sustain, and grow small businesses. As a ‘‘gap lender’’ SBA works to correct market imperfections and provide access to credit where private lenders are reluctant to do so without a government guarantee. The Administration’s 2003 Budget anticipates that SBA’s lending programs will make available capital resources of over $16 billion. The 7(a) General Business Loan program will support approximately $4.85 billion in guaranteed loans, while the 504 Certified Development Company program will support $4.5 billion in guaranteed loans. SBA will supplement the capital of Small Business Investment Companies (SBICs), which provide equity capital and long-term loans to small businesses, with $7 billion in participating securities and guaranteed debentures. In addition, SBA expects to provide $26 million in microloans, along with $17 million in technical assistance to increase the probability of borrower success. To continue to meet the needs of small businesses, SBA will focus program management in three areas: 1) providing economic relief to small businesses, 2) improving risk management, and 3) operating more efficiently. In the aftermath of the September 11th attacks, legislation was enacted to temporarily reduce fees for borrowers and lenders participating in the 7(a) General Business Loan program. As a result, the annual fee in the 7(a) program is reduced in half from 0.50 percent to 0.25 percent and up-front fees in the 7(a) program have been reduced in half to one percent for loans below $150,000. For loans between $150,000 and $700,000, the up-front fee was reduced to 2.5 percent (a reduction of one percentage point), and for loans above 700,000, the up-front fee remains at 3.5 percent. As a result of the fee reductions, the subsidy rate for the 7(a) program has increased to 1.76 percent in 2003 from 1.07 percent in 2002. This increase in cost translates into a reduced program level of $4.85 billion in 2003 from $9.3 billion in 2002. Given the additional cost and limited resources, the Administration will target funds to creditworthy small businesses most likely to be underserved by the commercial markets. While SBA can guaranty loans up to $1 million, the greatest need for government assistance is for loans below $150,000. Loans below $150,000 are usually for very small or start-up businesses. Lenders, however, are generally reluctant to make these loans due to high administrative costs and low financial returns. The SBA guarantee, along with the reduction in fees, will encourage banks to increase the number of loans they make that are below $150,000. Measuring and mitigating risks in SBA’s $50 billion business loan portfolio is one of the agency’s greatest challenges. As SBA delegates more authority to the private sector to administer SBA guaranteed loans, oversight functions become increasingly important. SBA has taken steps to improve oversight with the establishment of the Office of Lender Oversight, which will be responsible for evaluating individual SBA lenders. This office will employ a variety of analytical techniques to ensure strong performance, including overall financial performance analysis, industry concentration analysis, peer lending performance comparisons, SBA portfolio performance analysis, and selected credit reviews. The oversight program will also encompass on-site safety and soundness examinations and off-site monitoring of the Small Business Lending Companies (SBLCs) and compliance reviews of SBA lenders. This office will develop incentives for lenders to minimize defaults and performance measures to monitor results. SBA has been developing a Loan Monitoring System (LMS) which will support lender oversight functions by improving SBA’s data collection and processing capabilities, providing a better interface with lenders, and helping to increase lender accountability. However, 192 after five years and more than $30 million, the LMS project is behind schedule, over cost, and under performing. SBA will attempt to refocus the project to ensure successful implementation. The agency will refocus the project and by March 2002, develop a detailed plan for effective implementation. Improving risk management also means improving SBA’s ability to more accurately estimate the cost of subsidizing small business loans. This will enable the agency to allocate resources more effectively, determine program risk more precisely, and increase the ability to target programs to the neediest populations. The Administration has made significant progress in improving the accuracy of the subsidy estimate in the 7(a) program. Reflecting long-term changes in the program, the 2003 budget uses an improved estimation method, resulting in a reduced program cost. To refine the estimation in future years, SBA is developing an econometric model, which integrates a variety of programmatic and economic changes that affect loan performance. SBA is also reviewing the cost estimation method for the 504 Certified Development Company Program. To operate more efficiently, SBA will automate loan origination activities in the disaster loan program with a paperless loan application. As a result, loan-processing costs, times, and errors will decrease, while government responsiveness to the needs of disaster victims will increase. While still in the design stage, SBA expects to begin full implementation of the paperless disaster loan application in 2003. Additionally, because loan-servicing functions can be better performed by the private sector, SBA is privatizing these activities. The agency will therefore, focus its resources on core programs such as providing access to capital, technical assistance, and federal contracting opportunities. SBA is selling its current portfolio of defaulted guaranteed loans and direct loans. The agency has already sold more than $4 billion in such loans and will begin to reflect human resource and cost efficiencies that result from these sales. Still, with all of these management improvements, Government should only foster, not replace private-sector investment. As such, the Administration continues to seek alternative and innovative ways to support small business development. For instance, the advent of interstate banking and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999 have expanded small businesses’ access to capital. Banks have greater liberties to engage in merchant banking activities, including venture capital investments, allowing them to support small businesses in a variety of ways. While the Small Business Investment Company program has been effective in providing patient capital to small businesses, the venture capital market has matured over the last twenty years and may no longer need the same level of government intervention. Another way to support small business development is to provide financing opportunities beyond the limited 7(a) loan program, which historically has served less ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES than one-tenth of one percent of the Nation’s small businesses annually and provided less than one percent of annual small business lending. The Administration will work with the Congress, the lending community, and the small business communities to explore new approaches to insure that a greater number of the Nation’s small businesses have adequate access to capital. One possible model is Capital Access Programs (CAPs). Many States participate in CAPs, but the programs are managed largely by private parties. Under a CAP program, the bank and the borrower pay an up-front insurance premium typically between three and seven percent of the loan amount into a reserve account, which is matched by the participating state government. CAPs or other innovative state programs that place greater emphasis on market solutions may point the way toward modernizing and complementing SBA’s lending programs. USDA Rural Infrastructure and Business Development Programs USDA provides grants, loans, and loan guarantees to communities for constructing facilities such as health-care clinics, day-care centers, and water and wastewater systems. Direct loans are available at lower interest rates for the poorest communities. These programs have very low default rates. The cost associated with them is due primarily to subsidized interest rates that are below the prevailing Treasury rates. The program level for the Water and Waste (W&W) loan and grant program in the 2003 President’s Budget is $1.5 billion. These funds are available to communities of 10,000 or less residents. The program finances drinking water, sewer, solid waste disposal, and storm drainage facilities through direct or guaranteed loans and grants. In order to qualify, applicant communities must be unable to finance their needs through their own resources or with credit from commercial lenders. Priority is given to loans serving smaller communities that have greater financial need, based on their median household income, poverty levels, and size of service population as determined by the USDA’s field office staff. The community typically receives a combination of loans and grants depending on how much they can afford. The grant is usually for 35–45 percent of the project cost (it can be up to 75 percent). Loans are for 40 years with interest rates based on a three-tiered structure (poverty, intermediate, and market) depending on community income. The community facility programs are targeted to rural communities with fewer than 20,000 residents and have a program level of $477 million in 2003. USDA also provides grants, direct loans, and loan guarantees to assist rural businesses, including cooperatives, to increase employment and diversify the rural economy. In 2003, USDA proposes to provide $700 million in loan guarantees to rural businesses (these loans serve communities of 50,000 or less). These community programs are all part of the Rural Community Advancement Program (RCAP). Under RCAP, States have increased flexibility within the three 193 9. CREDIT AND INSURANCE funding streams for Water and Wastewater, Community Facilities, and Business and Industry (B&I). USDA also provides loans through the Intermediary Rel