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FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CLEVELAND [ ANNUAL REPORT 1992 J CD President's Foreword CD A Continent WilhoUl Borders @ Comparative Financial Statement @ Officers @ Directors @ Small Bank Advisory Council @ Small Business Advisory Council William H. Hendricks (left, standing); John R. Miller (right, standing); Jerry l.Jordan (seated) ~the second hair or 1992, economic expan- Some applaud the prosperity promised by sion resumed at a healthy pace. Although the less restricted trade among nations, while structural adjustments that have hampered others decry the threat to investment and the recovery are not yet complete, there is no employment represented by such rreedom. reason to expect that the current ravorable It is this controversy, based on dirferent trends will not continue. perceptions or the nature and erfects of international trade flows , that makes NAFTA a par- Clearly, the emphasis on capital investment ticularly timely and worthwhile subject ror and the development of the nation's infra- this year's annual report essay. structure, as well as government budget rerorm, will support the stable growth of the In the essay, we explore the benefits of free nation's economy. Because the Federal trade, examine the probable effects of lAFTA, Reserve has fostered a low inflation environ- especially on the Midwest, and suggest ways ment for the past several years, we believe that that the Midwest can strengthen its competi- monetary policy has contributed importantly tive position. Given the context or the chang- to improving long-run growth. ing world economy, TAFTA will present a Concern about the economy's potential for change should ultimately strengthen the growth has brought other, related issues into region. clear challenge, but a constructive response to sharper focus . One such issue concerns our nation 's position in the world market and The Federal Reserve Bank or Cleveland will America's continuing prosperity, especially as continue to take a leading role in public policy these may be affected by the North American discussions such as NAFTA, and continue Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). AFTA, a LO improve the efficiency and quality or our ser- United States-Canada-Mexico pact, will con- vices to the depository institutions in our solidate and extend the reductions in tariffs region. During 1992, the District was quite and other barriers to trade between the three successful in these erforts due to the contribu- countries, if it is approved by the three gov- tions of many people, including our 23 direc- ernments as expected later this year. tors, representing banking, business, agriculture, consumer, and labor interests, As has always been the case, the move toward our Small Bank and Small Business Advisory more open trade brings controversy with it. Councils, our officers, and our employees. In particular, the Bank has been fortunate to We are grateful for the guidance of the receive the guidance and leadership of Cleveland directors who completed their William H. Hendricks, first vice president, terms of service: Laban Pjackson ,jr. (chair- who has retired from the Bank after having man of Clearcreek Properties), who served served the District and the Federal Reserve since 1987; and Frank Wobst (chairman and System for more than 34 years. Bill's contribu- chief executive officer of Huntington tions to the Fourth District and the Federal Bancshares Incorporated), who served since Reserve System are well-known - he played a 1987. Special thanks are due to the directors significant ro le in creating the Federal Reserve of the Fourth District's two branch offices System's automated clearinghouse system who completed their terms: Clay Parker Davis and in upgrading its electronic funds transfer (preSident and chief executive officer of network. Over the last few years, he spear- Citizens headed the development of the Federal Cincinnati board since 1990; and William F. Reserve System's new currency processing Roemer (chairman and chief executive officer equipment. Bill brought a very high level of of Integra Financial Corporation), who served dedication and integrity to his varied respon- on the Pittsburgh board since 1990. ational Bank), who served on the sibilities, and he will be missed. Finally, I want to express my appreciation for I also want to express appreciation to john R. the contributions made by the officers and the Miller (former president and chief operating employees of the FourLh DistricL during 1992. officer of Standard Oil Company of Ohio), who served as chairman of our board of directors since 1991 and who was a member of our board since 1986. Whenjohn completed his term of service in 1992, he left the Bank in a stronger position to meet the challenges of the future . We are indebted to him for his wise counsel, leadership, and dedication . h~ jerry L.jordan "W RADE IS IN ITS FI DS ITS OW ATURE FREE, CHAN EL, A D BEST DIRECTETH ITS OW COURSE; A D ALL LAWS TO GIVE IT RULES A D DIRECTIO S, A D TO LIMIT AND CIRCUMSCRIBE IT, MAY SERVE THE PARTICULAR E DS OF PRIVATE ME , BUT ARE SELDOM ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE PUBLIC." AI1 Essay 011 the East Il1dia Trade Charles D'Avenant (1697) ~ notion of goods and services, labor regions into a tightly integrated economy, free and capital nowing freely across the vast trade within the borders of the United States spaces of the United States is commonplace to has allowed our country to approach its Americans. Although the United States is fullest economic potential. The nation 's grand stratified by countless layers of governments, experiment of internal free trade , steered by most of which have some power to tax goods market forces, has helped make our economy and services, our founders saw the benefit of the largest and most productive in the world , unfettered commerce among the various which is a splendid testimony to D'Avenant 's political entities. Most goods and services are seventeenth-century observation. transported across government boundaries without restrictions of tariffs or quotas; businesses have free access to markets across the BORD E RL E SS TRAD E country; people can live and work anyplace ~hin the last few years, two opportuni- they choose. ties have arisen to expand free trade beyond the borders of the United States to include Yet, even within this highly integrated market Canada and Mexico. In 1987, Canada and the economy, spatial distances, cullLlral differ- United States entered into a free-trade agree- ences, resource endowments, special skills or ment, which set up a schedule to eliminate technologies, and simply the quirks of history tariffs and quotas on most goods shipped lead to specialization and thus regional eco- between the two countries. On August 12, nomic diversity. Free trade across state bor- 1992, Mexico joined Canada and the United ders allows regions to do what they do best. States in announcing a trilateral agreement to Ohio produces steel products and automo- create a free-trade zone that would encompass biles in abundance; California and Florida the entire North American continent. grow oranges. The exchange of citrus products for steel girders or for cars yields gains to consumers and workers in all three regions. Although trade is already well established among the three countries, the now of goods and services is still restricted by some tariffs The potential of an integrated economy is and barriers. The North American Free Trade much greater than the sum of each region 's Agreement ( AFTA) , if ratified, would elimi- isolated efforts. By linking these diverse nate tariffs on most shipments between the three countries within 10 years. It wo uld also the United States, has presented fewadjust- remove limits on international investment, ment problems in a more open trading envi- liberalize trade in services (including bank- ronment. Mexico, in contrast, with its lower ing), protect intellectual propeny, and estab- labor costs and less-developed economy, is lish environmental and worker safety seen by some to be a threat to u.s. jobs. Oppo- standard s. nents assert that eliminating trade barriers between Mexico and the United States would As a result, trade among the three nations invite the exodus of jobs to Mexico, as well as cou ld approach the high level of mobility of introduce a host of problems regarding th e merchandise and factors of production environment and worker safety. (except labor) that has nourished within the United States for more than two centuries. NAFTA has been heralded as a major step in MIDWEST JOBS ~ile critics generally agree that AFTA unleashing the combined competitive powers wi ll raise overall well-being, they argue that of the three the costs are borne disproportionately by onh American economies. By linking the United States with its first- and workers in specific industries and in certain third-largest trading partners, AFTA would regions. They point out that the hardship create the world's largest trading bloc, with 370 experienced by a single worker displaced million consumers and $6 trillion in output. from his or her job because of increased competition will greatly exceed the gains realized The further integration of the three economies by anyone consumer who enjoys the benefits promises to raise the standards of living of all of lower prices. three nations. The benefits spring from each nation 's ability to focus on producing those Many Midwest workers feel panicularly vul- goods and services for which it has a compar- nerable to NAFTA. They fear that much lower ative advantage, redUCing costs by spreading wages and less stringent regulations in large investments over larger markets, and Mexico will lure businesses and jobs away indUCing more efricient operations through from this region , leaving them with fewer job stiffer competition. As a result, U.s. busi- prospects and lower wages. Their fears have nesses will not only be more efficient in pro- been fueled by the lackluster growth of viding goods and services to u.s. co nsumers, Midwest manufacturing employment, by the but they also will be more competitive with well-publicized downsizing of many large cor- Asian and European companies, further bol- porations, and by the rapid growth in the stering growth and prosperity at home. number of production facilities just inside the Mexican border. On the other hand, not everyone shares the same enthusiasm for the passage of AFTA. This essay focuses on a narrow but important While many see issue: What effect wi ll free trade with Mexico AFTA as a continuation of the liberalization of onh American trade have on Midwest jobs? The perspective offered begun by the Canada-U.s. Free Trade is framed in terms of competitive advantage Agreement ( FTA) of 1987, others see a serious and adjustment to change. How does a region threat in including Mexico in the pact. create and sustain a competitive advantage in Canada, with its similarities to the Un ited jobs and thus a high standard of living? How States in wages and other economic aspects, can businesses and workers prepare for the products and industries that yield high-paying and its long-standing trade relationships with opportunities afforded by freer trade in general and by AFTA in particular? ~ potential loss of cenain types of jobs 1960s, the Midwest maintained an advantage resulting from the series of trade liberalizallon over much of the rest of country, enjoying per initiatives, of which capita income as much as 10 percent higher AFTA is the most recent and most publicized , is a solemn reminder of than the national average. Since then, the the wrenching restructuring the Midwest has Midwest's advantage has steadily eroded and experienced during the past several decades. is now slighLly below the national average. Increased competition came first from regions within the United States, and more recenLly ADAPTING from foreign economies. TO CHANGE ~at happened to the Midwest's domi- Perhaps the Midwest's most effective competi- nance in key industries that supported lhe tor has been the sOUlhern states. This was not region 's standard of Iiving? Some have argued always the case. During the first half of this that the region simply could not compete with century, tens of thousands of workers from the lower wages of the South. Others add that the rural South were drawn into the higher- the products thal built this region and this paying faclOry jobs in the Midwest. For exam- country - steel, automobiles, lires - are no p le, at the turn of the century, steel workers in longer the cornerstone of u.s. economic the Midwest earned nearly 70 percent more development. CD than their counterparts in the South. REGIONAL PER CAPITA INCOME AS A PERCENT OF U.s. PER CAPITA 1 COME Percent After World War II , the tide turned . As transportation costs 120.-------------------------------------------------------------~ 100 ----------------------------------- ------ 80 declined with new investment in high- 60 ways and railroads, 40 the South's lower wages and less restrictive labor practices aLLracted businesses away from the 20 1940 1945 GREAT LA.KES/U.S. 1950 1955 1960 1970 1975 1980 - - SOUTHEAST/u.S. Source: U.s. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic AnalysIs Midwest and other regions of the country. During the 1960s and Both explanations are valid, but they raise a 1970s, the South gained close to two million more basic question: Why was the Midwest manufacluringjobs relative lo the rest of the unable nation . Much of this increase came at the spawn the next generation of productive expense of the Midwest. industries? The answer lies at the root of com- lo generate new ventures that could petitive advantage. The reallocation of resources, particularly the infusion of new investment, helped raise living A region's competitive advantage is not meas- standards in the South. The region 's per capita ured by specific industries or products, but income rose from 30 percent below the nation- by the talents and resources that allow a al average in 1950 lo 10 percent below in 1990. region During the 1950s and the first half of the industries with expanding, more productive lo replace declining, less efficient 1985 1990 ones. The Midwest attained and preserved its Second, local special interest groups, includ- dominance ror decades primarily through ing labor unions, trade associations, and innovation - by discovering and implement- political coalitions, lobbied ror protectionist ing new and better ways to compete and by legislation and administrative rules, or acted successrully bringing these ideas to market. in collusion to innuence prices and wages. Such measures may have appeared at first to The advantage or low ractor costs, principally be successrul in preserving the benefits low wages, is only secondary to the advantage derived earlier, but in the end they resulted in or profitable ideas. Economies expand and higher costs and less innovative activity, bOlh develop by adding new kinds or activities. or which reduced the competitiveness or the History is rull or examples in which regions cumstances and opportunities. region and its ability to adapt to changing cirhave been propelled by the cumulative efrect ® or incremental ideas. Henry Ford saw the Change is inevitable in a dynamic market advantage or assembling automobile parts economy. As industries mature, their prod- built by small local suppliers. From this initial ucts, which initiall y embodied new and efrort, the auto industry was born. Andrew unique technologies, are more easily repli- Carnegie started the organization that would cated. Regions, and nations, with low ractor eventually become u.s. Steel by acquiring a small rorge that ~E ADVANTAGE OF.. .LOW WAGES IS 0 LY SECO DARY TO THE made axles ror a local railway car builder. Both industries nour- ADVANTAGE OF PROFlTABLE IDEAS. ECO OMIES EXPA DAD DEVELOP BY ADDING EW KIDS OF ACTIVlTIES. ished in the Midwest, because the region 's businesses made better products and pro- costs, particularly low wages, are able to repli- duced them more efficiently than anyone else. cate the production process even though their In return , these ventures yielded high returns workers may not necessarily be as skilled nor and high wages. their managers as creative. But the success and dominance or these Workers have a choice as industries mature Midwest industries unintentionally retarded and market conditions change. They can the rurther development or innovations and either remain competitive by accepting lower crippled economic growth ror basically two wages or by applying and enhancing their tal- reasons. First, the region 's dominant indus- ents to increase productivity and thus com- tries kept skilled labor and entrepreneurial mand higher wages. Southern workers initially motivation in short supply. As long as these were willing to accept hair the wage rates or industries orrered suffiCiently high-paying, Midwest workers. The cost advantage lured secure job opportunities to area workers, mature industries to the South. First came tex- there was little unemployed talent and little tiles rrom New England, rollowed by tire and incentive to develop new products or to im- automotive products rrom the Midwest. prove substantially upon existing processes. Yet, as many or these industries reached But ractor supply conditions continually maturity and unions controlled access to the change, and competitive advantage based relatively rew new jobs created by these indus- primarily on ractor costs is rragile. With rew tries, the region did not attract the immigrants impediments to shelter uncompetitive indus- that it had earlier. tries, as is the case with the borderless nature or interstate commerce, the leadership of indus- that a region's competitive advantage is more tries sensitive to factor costs often shifts rapid- enduring when it is built on the skills, knowl- ly. Today's low-labor-cost region may be edge, and ingenuity of its people rather than displaced by a different region tomorrow. when it is based on low factor costs. Therefore, the issue facing the Midwest in particular, and The South has lost its clear cost advantage the nation in general, is much broader than over the Midwest as the wage gap between the simply the question of whether these regions two has narrowed. Atthe same time, southern will lose jobs to Mexico. industries, such as textiles and apparel , have increasingly come under sliff competition The question is whether or not Midwest busi- from lower-wage Asian countries. Like the nesses and workers are prepared to break Midwest, the South faced the same choice: with the past and develop new products and competitiveness through low wages or new processes that will allow this region to through higher productivity. Over time the capitalize on its competitive advantages. South has improved in other areas, such as its Many Midwest manufacturers have made sig- development of a more highly skilled labor nificant progress toward improving their com- force , its investment in a more extensive petitive advantage during the last 10 years. infrastructure, and its creation of more tech- Continuing to do so will increase the region 's nologically advanced industries. competitiveness not only with Mexico, but also with the rest of the world , including other LESSONS FROM THE PAST parts of the United States. ~ basic lesson drawn from the Midwest's experience with interregional competition is ({)n October 7, 1992, the heads of state from Mexico also joined the General Agreement on Canada, Mexico, and the United States met in Tariffs and Trade (GATT) , which brought it San Antonio, Texas, to announce the comple- into compliance with international standards. tion of two years of negotiations for a orth American Free Trade Agreement. Despite the By 1989, the percentage of items requiring Significance of the October ceremony, comple- export licenses fell from 92 percent to 22 per- tion of negotiations among the three nations cent, the maximum tariff was lowered from did not signal the beginning of trade Iiberaliza- 100 percent to 20 percent, and the trade- lion wilhin weighted tariff was halved . A year later, 80 onh America. It simply ratified an ongoing process between the United States percent of Mexican goods entered and ilS American markets under preferential or zero onh American neighbors that had been evolving since the mid-1980s. orth tariffs. Mexico also dismantled investment controls and encouraged privatization of In 1985, while the United States and Canada slate-controlled enterprises. were negotiating the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, Mexico was undergoing the most dramatic unilateral dismantling of trade barri- INCREASED TRADE ers ever initialed. As part of this effort, it nego- ~ipments among the three countries tiated an understanding with the United have increased considerably since trade States that limited certain Mexican subsidies. liberalization began in the mid-1980s. Mexico 9 is the fastest-growing major U.s. export mar- U.s. investment in Mexican plants and equip- ket. u.s. exports to Mexico to pped $33 billion ment has contributed to much co nste rnation in 1991. nearly three times more than in 1986. among midwesterners because of th e fear that Mexico recently surpassed Japan to become businesses will pick up en masse and move the second-largest market for u.s. manufac- their operations to Mexico to take advantage tured goods. Conversely, more than 80 per- of low labor costs. In reality, with the close cent of Mexican exports are destined for the linkages between domestic companies and United States, making the United Sta tes their affi liates, the net effect of u.s. investment Mexico's largest foreign market. in Mexico has been to create add itionaljobs in the United States by c. ·panding export This increase in trade reOects more than sim- opportunities. For instance, domestic compa- ply the worldwide trend toward greater trade; nies export more to their Mexican affiliates it demonstrates that a reduction or elimina- than their Mexican subsidiaries ship back to tion of tariffs has a stimulative efrect. U.s. the United States. exports of textiles and apparel to Mexico more than doubled . . gj{: u.s. COMPANIES ARE RESTRICTED FROM INVEST! GI MEXICO, THEY since 1986, as a direct result of tariff red uctions and an expand- WILL I VEST IN OTHER COUNTR IES THAT ARE MUCH FARTHER FROM OUR BORDERS A D LESS LIKELY TO INTEGRATE WITH OUR ECONOMY. ing Mexican market. Overall, U.S. exports to Mexico have increased at nearly twice the The Midwest has particularly benefited from rate of u.s. exports to the rest of the world. As direct investment in Mexico, since a large a result, the s hare of U.S. exports to Mexico share of the capital goods req uired to build has risen from 5.5 percent in 1986 to 7.9 per- and equip plants in Mexico are produced in cent in 1991. the Midwest. For examp le, Ohio's exports to Mexico increased 140 percent between 1987 u.s. INVESTMENT ~trade between the two nations has and 1991, whereas Ohio's exports to th e rest or the world increased only 68 percent. Industri al machinery accounted for the grown, so has U.S. investment in Mexican largest share of Ohio's exports to Mexico, and production facilities. Investment has provided in creased 160 percent during those five years. a needed infusion of capital into Mexico while linking Mexican production to the vast Some may question whether more jobs would network of u.s. operations, contributing to have been created in the United States, and the integratio n of the two economies. the Midwest, if U.s. companies had not Through their international production net- reality is that if U.S. companies are restricted works, U.S. companies transfer inputs and from investing in Mexico, they will invest in moved some operations to Mexico. But the products among regionally dispersed facili- other countries that are much farther from ties, benefiting from cross-regional specializa- our borders and less likely to integrate with Lion, economies of scale, and increased our economy. competition. ~en wilh lh ese grea l slrid es in o pening lh e U.s. rigures will be used ror co mparisons. For bord er between Mex ico and th e United Slales exa mple, th e Uniled Slales' overall producli vi- over th e lasl d ecade, restricti ons s ti ll remain ly is fi ve limes higher lh an Mex ico 's, which in key induslri es, including a Ulo mobil es and refl ecls bOlh a higher qualilYlabo r rorce a nd agricu llure. AFTA n ego li alio ns have p aved mo re intense capilal in veSlm enl. Th e Uniled lh e way lO reduce lh ese tarirrs in th e neX llen Slales will likely maintain lhis ad vantage, sin ce years. Fu rth erm ore, the agreement in stilulio n- il devoles fi ve lim es mo re o r ilS gross do mesti c alizes th e poli cy cha nges and conrers a d egree producl (GDP) lO research and d evelopment o r perman ence by locking in do meslic p olicy lh an d oes Mex ico, a nd il sp end s lwice lh e changes wilh internali o nal lreali es. Th e efrecl share o r GDP o n pub lic ed ucalio n . o r NAFTA o n th e Mid wesl, ir and w hen il is Ol o nly is th e Mid wesl's co mpelilive edge ralified by Co ngress and th e legislalures o r lhe olh er lwO co untries, d epends o n lwO basic broader-based lh an Mex ico 's, bUl il is also raclors: th e co mpeti live ad vantage o r th e va ri- in key areas lhal are mo re likely to s uslain il, o us indus lries in Mex ico and th e Midwesl, a nd lh al yield higher relurns and wages. As and th e eX lent to wh ich ® lh e world prepares lO enter the lwe nty-firsl AFTA rurth er reduces lrad e barri ers. ce ntury, mOS l agree lhal a na li on 's co mpelilive advantage will dep end o n th e s kill s o r ilS COMP E TITIV E p eopl e. Th ey gen erale th e id eas , pUllh em E DGE into prac tice, and make sure lh allhe fin al ~XiCO'S s ingle grea lesl ad vanlage over p roducls are o r th e hig hesl qualilYand are lh e Mid wesl, and over th e entire Uniled Slales, mOS l effi ciently produced . is s ignificantly lower lab or COSlS. Lab or co mpensalion in Mexico is o nly o nesevenlh lhal in lh e Mid wes l. However, low labor COSlS is o nly o ne o r m any raclors Billions of u .S. Dollars 35 r----------------------------------------------------------. 30 5 0 lage o r a regio n o r a -5 o r the labo r rorce, lh e capacity lO produce -10 [ U 1982 U 1983 D EXPORTS U 1984 o IMPORTS r- r- r- r- r- r- IO co mpelilive ad van- r- r- 20 15 - r- - 25 lhal d elermin e lh e co untry. Th e qualilY - u.s. TRADE W ITH MEXICO r- u u 1985 1986 U u 1987 1988 u u 1989 1990 - new lechn ologies, lhe region 's pUblic inrrastructure, and th e cost o r 1991 IJ NET Source: u.s. Department of Commerce. Internalional Trade Admmlslrallon ease o r access to markels, th e co ndili o n o r lhe n WINN E RS AND LOSERS malerials also weigh heavily in lh al d ecisio n. ~ven th e dirreren ces in wage rales With respecl to lhese attributes, th e Midwest wo uld exp ecl labo r-inten sive sectors in th e has a sizabl e advantage over Mex ico. Sin ce lh e Uni led Slales lO lose rro m Midwest is rep resentalive o r th e u.s. eco no my, capilal-inten sive seClors lOgain . Sludi es belween Mexico and th e Uniled Slales, o ne AFTA, a nd using sophisticated models confirm this rule industrial machinery operations are generally of thumb. less efficient than their counterparts in other regions of the country, while rubber and plas- The clear losers from the u.s. perspective are tics plants are slightly more efficient. Produc- likely to be the apparel, furniture, and glass tivity improvements have been forthcoming products industries. The net gainers for the in these and other Midwest industries. United States will probably be chemicals, capi- Continued productivity advances relative to tal equipment, metals, and rubber and plastics. the rest of the nation will strengthen the Midwest's prospects of benefiting from In every case, the industries that are slated to AHA. lose to Mexican production offer considerably lower wages and achieve lower productivity than the industries that are apt to be net win- @ THE AUTO INDUSTRY ners. In fact, with the exception of the rubber ~ auto industry is a speCial case in the and plastics industry, industries that are net NAFTA negotiations. It is treated separately in winners offer among the highest wages of any the manufacturing industry. existing linkages with maquiladora industries AFTA agreement, in part because of its of Mexico. Maquiladora refers to Mexican The expected inability of low-wage U.s. plants that are set up along the border primar- industries to compete with their Mexican ily for the processing or secondary assembly counterparts underscores the importance of components imported from the United of productivity in establishing an industry's States. These components are imported duty- competitive advantage. In every case, the low- free and are subject only to a value-added tar- wage industries (losers) have higher labor iff when shipped back costs per unit of oUlputthan the higher-wage which is an allractive arrangement under the industries (gainers) because of much lower existing tariff structure. to the United States, labor productivity. Since the program first began in 1965, 143 On the basis of this list of industries, the auto plants have opened along the border, scenario is relatively bright for industries employi.ng close to 100,000 Mexican workers. and workers within the four Fourth Federal Because of the existing networks between Reserve District states (Kentucky, Ohio, Mexican and U.S. plants, reducing tariffs and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) and the quotas on autos and auto pans will not have Midwest. More than twice as many workers in much effect on U.S. production. But it will Fourth District states are employed in indus- increase output in Mexico by integrating tries that are likely to gain from maqUiladora industries with the rest of the AFTA than in industries that are at risk of losing employ- Mexican economy. ment. Roughly 30 percent of the four states' manufacturing workers are in industries that Estimates of NAFTA-related job losses in the are likely to expand because of open borders u.s. transportation industry are generally with Mexico. Sixty percent of these workers quite modest, typically at only about one-half are concentrated in industrial machinery and of 1 percent of existing employment during primary metals industries. the next 10 years. The real losers in the auto industry are likely to be countries that are not However, Midwest industries will reap the part of AHA. The greater increase in gains from NAFTA only if they remain com- Mexican auto-related exports to the United petitive with industries in the rest of the States will be offset by fewer u.s. imports United States. At this point, Midwest steel and from other countries. At the same time, free lrade wilh Mexico will resull in grealer plant specialization , which will cause lemporary disp lacement or workers, bUl will eventually increase the efficiency or the induslry. Increased efficiency or orth American aULOmakers will enhance lheir abililY lO compele wilhJapanese and European producers, ultimalely saving U.s. jobs. In the meantime, lhe orth American auLO induslry is grappling wilh the painrul process or downsizing in order lO reduce ilS chronic problem or overcapacily. Gaining access lO a growing Mexican markel ror aULOmobiles may help domestic firms deal wilh the overcapacilY problem. SMALL EFFECTS ~many ways, il is difricu illo assess lhe impaclor AFTA on Mexico and the Uniled Slales because the agreement is quile dirrerent rrom previous rree-lrade pacls. The European experience and the recent Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement joined countries or similar slandards or living, wages, and lechnical proficiency, while the dirrerences belween Mexico and the Uniled Slales (and Canada) are slark. The racllhal Mexico's hourly labor compensalion cosls are only one-seventh lhose or lhe Uniled Slales apLly sums up the dirrerences. Several mitigating ractors, however, lead mOSl analysts to conclude thallhe efrect or AFTA on the United Slates, and even on Mexico, will be small. Gains ror the United States are estimaled LO be less than 1 percent or GOP over the lO-year period in which tarirrs are reduced . Gains ror Mexico may be as high as 10 percent or GOP, depending on the extent LO which roreign investment and productivity increases are realized . Even lhough Mexico stands to gain the mOSl rrom open borders, since it is the smallest and least developed or the lhree economies, its economic developmenl benefils the Uniled Slales direcLly. Increased prosperily promoles polilical slabililY and progress LOward grealer democracy in Mexico, which slrenglhens a polilical and economic partnership belween the lWO nations. Formalizing lhese policies by entering into an internalionallrealy rurther ensures lhallhese iniNORTH AMERICAN GDP lialives will Slay on course. These relalively small gains reOecl several moderaling raclors. o CANADA Trade reslriclions o MEXICO o UNITED STATES belween the Uniled Source: IMD Intemauonal , The World Slales and Mexico oj Compel III veness Repel I. 1990. have already been Lausanne. Switzerland. reduced lO low levels. Mexican goods coming across our border are subjeclLO an average larirr or only about 5 percent, while U.s. products going into Mexico are laxed al only aboul a 10 percent rate. Furthermore, much or the trade among the lhree countries is nOl subject to tarirrs: early 85 percenl or Mexican products currently enter the Uniled Slales duty-rree. Since Mexico's economy is quite small relalive LO that or the United States, increased Mexican exports will have a relatively small errect on U.S. production. Labor and capilal will move extensively across sectors within Mexico, leading LO substantial displacement or Mexican workers, bUl much less displacement or u.s. workers. In addition, the impact on the United States will be rurther limited because part orthe increase in imports rrom Mexico will substitute ror imports rrom olher low-wage countries. ~ gains from integra ling lWO economies lhe supply of high-skilled workers could nOl wilh vasLly different levels of capital and labor keep up wilh the increase in demand . skills resull primarily from increased specializalion and relocaLion of produclion facililies . The excess supply of low-skilled workers is NAFTA is expected to boost u.s. employment partly auribulable to Mexican immigration, wilhin the range of 100,000 lO 300,000 work- which accounts for aboul 10 percent of lhe ers during the nexl 10 years as a resull of increase in low-skilled workers during lhe greater efficiencies from specializalion and pasl decade. MOSl of the problem simply economies of scale. reflecls the facllhal more sophislicaled lechnology and the shifllO a service- and However, lhese eSlimales represent nel gains, ® informalion-based economy require skills in which jobs gained due lO increased exports beyond lhose lhal can be oblained wilh only a are offsel by jobs losl due lO in creased high school educalion. Allhough a grealer per- imports. Some labor organizalions place lh e centage of high school graduales now go on number of displaced workers close lO lO 500,000. A widely ciled sLUdy foresees aboul enough workers wiLh sufficienl skills lO fill 110,000 displaced workers nationwide from their needs. college, companies are slill unable lO find increased imports. AFTA will nOl intensify the problem, alleasl THE LESS-SKILLED nOl from the supply side. Il has no provision for an increase in immigralion. On the con- c 0isplacement is by no means a unique trary, one purpose of AFTA is lO provide resull of free trade. During an economic viable employmenl opportunilies for downlurn , the proportion oflhe unemployed Mexicans in Mexico, which will reduce Lhe who losllheir jobs involuntarily has climbed incenlive for lhem lO seek employment in lhe lO as high as 60 percenl. Moreover, upwards Uniled Slales. of 20 percenl of all jobs in the economy change hands in anyone year. To pUllhese eSlimales inlo perspecLive, U.s. employment WORKER ASSISTANCE declined by 1.6 million from the lime lhe <Oiflhough the nel employment effecls of economy peaked in mid-1990 until year-end NAFTA are expecled LO be small, workers will 1992. be displaced. Even [or workers who have lhe necessary skills lO meellhe requirements of Less-skilled workers will be mOSl affecled by lhe new jobs lhal will be crealed from lrade, induslrial reslructuring resulting from searching for a job is cosLly, particularly if il NAFTA. Induslries lhaL are likely lO directly entails searching for employmenl in olher compeLe wilh Mexican firms offer the lowesl induslries, in new occupaLions, or in olher wages and have the lowesl produclivity. communilies. Workers wilh a high school educaLion or less Low-skill workers will have more difficulty find- have experienced a decline in real earnings ing employment, and lhey will require eXlensive over the past decade, while college graduates training in order lO be productive in the work- have enjoyed a gain in real wages. This income place. These people need assiSLance lO pay disparity arose because the supply of low- lui lion as well as lO support lhemselves and skilled workers exceeded lheir demand, while their families while completing a course of study. Worker assiSlance remains one of the major issues lO be laken up by Congress before AFTA can be raLified. Experience has shown lhallhe mOSl effeclive programs reach dislocaled workers as soon as possible, provide job search assiSlance lO workers who have lhe skills and backgrounds Lhey need for new jobs, offer occupalional relraining and basic skills lraining, and provide supplemental income during the relocalion process. Several exisLing governmenl programs already provide such services, including Trade Adjuslment Assislance (TAA), Economic Dislocalion and Worker Adjuslmenl Assislance (EDWAA),Job Training and Placement Assislance UTPA), and unemployment insurance benefils. Of lhese programs, only TAA was enacled specifically lO provide lraining and income supplement lO workers displaced by liberalized ~ NOrLh American continenl is well on ilS way lO borderless Lrade. During the lasl decade, lremendous gains have been made in eliminaling the barriers lO the free now of goods and services among Canada, Mexico, and lhe Uniled Slales. We believe AFTA will ensure lhal U.s. firms and workers will reap the full benefiLs of the markel oppOrLUnilies of free lrade by improving on lrade rules and providing a slable environment for fUlure inveSlmenL. The success of the Midwesl, and olher regions of the country, in benefiling from NAFTA depends on the willingness of business leaders and workers lO adapl LO changing condilions by offering new producLS and implementing innovaLive produclion lechniques. Local indusLries and intereSl groups cannOl successfully resiSL the direclions lhal markel forces are pushing the regional economy. As declining indusLries give way LO growing ones, lrade. In the neXl several months, Congress will evaluale the adequacy of lhese programs in redislribuling some of the gains from free lrade and in providing the lraining and job placement services necessary for an efficienl lransilion. Government programs alone cannOl solve lhe problem of a poorly lrained labor force. Grealer involvement of the privale seClor in lhe educalional syslem would help improve lhe lraining received by workers, as well as lhe educalion received by sludents before lhey enter the work force . Businesses have lhe mOSl immediale knowledge concerning lhe skills required in the workplace. Cooperalion belween businesses and schools would help lO close the gap belween whal is offered in lraining programs or in schools and whal businesses need in lheir employees. some businesses will close lheir doors and some workers will be displaced . The evidence seems LO indicale, however, lhal the passage of AFTA would nOL open a noodgale of producLs into the Uniled Slales, nor would iL provoke a mass exodus of jobs into Mexico. AFTA merely raLifies an ongoing lrend . Even the small nel effecls produced by AFTA are likely lO lead lO some unemployment as adjusLments are made. InSlead of lrying lO preserve jobs lhal are less producLive and lower paying, the beller slraLegy is for workers lO acquire the skills necessary lO qualify for jobs in the growing, more compeLiLive seCLors. In a dynamic economy, bOLh declining and advancing induslries exiSl side by side. The diversilY wiLhin and across regions, unimpeded by lrade barriers, offers ample opportunilY for the kind of induslrial reslrucluring necessary lO promoLe economic growlh and lO offer workers a beller fUlure. STATEMENT OF CONDITION For years ended December J I 1992 [ ASSETS ] @ $ 1991 Gold certificate account Special drawing rights certificate account Coin Loans and securities: Loans to depOSitory institutions Federal agency obligations bought outright U.S. government securities: Bills Notes Bonds Total U.S. government securities Total loans and securiLies -0340,680,714 -0378,205 ,795 8,924,796,483 7,438,416,401 2,205,304,963 $ 18,568,517,847 $18,909,198,561 8,299,003,637 6,352,112,831 2,022,987,976 $ 16,674,104,444 $ 17,052,310,239 Cash items in process of collection Bank premises Oth er assets Interdistrict settlement account TOTAL ASSETS 442.406,029 35.939,937 1.682.967,122 1,420.144,348 $ 23,730,651 ,431 353.848,298 34,300.807 1,777,907,651 1,765,980,255 $ 22,351 ,530,518 658,000,000 556,000,000 25 ,995 ,434 $ 692,000,000 645,000,000 30,183,268 [ LIAB ILITIES] Federal Reserve notes Deposits: Depository institutions Foreign Other depOSits Total deposits $21 ,679,962,723 $ 19,949,460.886 1,340,703,323 8,451,200 14,900,693 $ 1,364,055,216 1.571,163,262 7,755,000 87,808,726 $ 1,666,726,988 Deferred availability cash items Other liabilities TOTAL LIABILITIES 220,326,754 113,869.638 $ 23,378,214,331 269,814,840 143,216,304 $ 22,029,219,018 $ $ [ CAPITAL ACCOUNTS ] Capital paid in Surplus TOTAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOU TS 176,218,550 176,218,550 $ 352,437,100 $23,730,651 ,431 161,155,750 161,155,750 $ 322,311,500 $ 22,351 .530,518 INCOME AND EXPENSES FO I years elided DCCC/llberJ I 1991 1992 [CURRENT INCOME] Interest on loans Interest on government securities Earnings on foreign currency Income from services All other income Total current income [CURRENT $ $ 74,893 ,149 7,166,749 $1,173 ,664,499 $ $ $ 477,189 1,181 ,833,460 129,935,784 43,638,765 635,040 $ 1,356,520,238 EXPENSES] Current operating expenses Cost of earnings credits CURRENT ET I COME [PROFIT $ 51,177 1,083,681 ,615 127,851,245 43 ,856,164 284,196 $1 ,255,724,397 AND 77,244,050 8,545,603 $1 ,270,730,585 LOSS] Additions to current net income Profit on foreign exchange transactions Profit on sales of government securities All other additions TOLal additions $ Deductions from currenl nel income Loss on foreign exchange Lransactions All other deducLions TOLal deductions Net additions or deductions $ $ $ [DIST R IB UTION OF NET Dividends paid Payments to U.s. Treasury (interesL on Federal Reserve nOLes) Transferred to surplus Total dislributed 65,585 ,542 10,279 65 ,595 ,821 57,985,932 $ $ $ $ 21 ,833,126 8,018,932 935 29,852,993 -06,240 6,240 29,846,753 1,751 ,906 9,694,406 7,795,200 18,485,886 $1,087,645 ,575 6,028,900 16,602,497 $1 ,268,251,535 $ $ Cost ofUnreimbursable Treasury Services Assessments by Board of Governors Expenditures Federal Reserve currency costs ET 1 COME AVAILABLE FOR DISTRIBUTIO -07,605 ,686 4,203 7,609,889 INC O ME] 10,100,417 1,062,482,358 15,062,800 $1 ,087,645,575 9,032,226 1,223,419,259 35 ,800,050 $1,268,251,535 @ As oj December 31, 1992 Jerry L.Jordan Andrew J. Bazar Vice President President & OieJ Execulive Officer Jake D. Breland William H. Hendricks Vice President First Vicc Presiden t William S. Brown @ Randolph G. Coleman Vice President Senior Vice President Andrew C. Burkle,Jr. John M. Davis Senior Vice President & Director oj Rescarch Vice President Jill Goubeaux Clark Vice PreSident John]. Ritchey Senior Vice President & General Counsel & Associate General Counsel Patrick V. Cost Vice President & General Auditor Samuel D. Smith Se nior Vice President Lawrence Cuy Vice President Donald G. Vincel Scnior Vice President Creighton R. Fricek Vice President Robert F. Ware Senior Vice President Elena M. McCall Vice President John]. Wixted,jr. Senior Vice President R. Chris Moore Vice Presiden t Sandra PianailO Vice Prcsident & Secretary Robert W. Price Vice President Edward E. Richardson Vice President Mark S. Sniderman Vice President & Associate Director oj Research Joseph c. Thorp Vice President Roben Van Valkenburg Vice President Andrew W. Watts Vice President & Regulatory Cou nsel Margrel A. Beekel A sistant Vice President Terry N. Bennett Assistant Vice President ThomasJ. Callahan Assistant Vice President & Assistant Secretary Randall W. Eberts Assistant Vice President & Economist John]. Erceg Assistant Vice President & Economist William T. Gavin Assistant Vice President & Economist Bunon G. Shulack Assistant Vice Presidcnt William]. Smith Assistant Vice Presidcnt Edward]. Stevens Assistant Vice Presidcnt & Economist James B. Thomson Assi tant Vice Prcsidellt & Economist Walker F. Todd As istant General COUIISel c~ Rcscarcil Officer Henry P. Trolio Assistant Vice President Darell R. Wiurup Elaine G. Geller Assistant Vicc Prcsident Assistant Vice PrCSldcrH Robert]. Gorius Assistant Vice President Norman K. Hagen Assistant Vice President Eddie L. Hardy Examining Officer David P.Jager Assistant Vice President Rayford P. Kalich Assistant Vice President [CINCINNATI] Charles A. Cerino scnior Vice President Roscoe E. Harrison Assistant Vice President Barbara H. Hertz Assistant Vice President Jerry S. Wilson Assistant Vice PrTsidcnt Kevin P. Kelley Assistant Vice PresidCllt John E. Kleinhenz [PITTSBURGH] Assistant Vice President Harold]. Swart William]. Major Senior Vice President Assistant Vice President Raymond L. Brinkman Laura K. McGowan Assistant Vice Presidellt Assistant Vice President Lois A. Riback James W. Rakowsky Assistant Vice President Assistallt Vice President Robert B. Schaub David E. Rich Assistant Vice Presidcnt Assistant Vice President John P. Robins Examining Officer Terrence]. Roth Assistant Vice President Susan G. Schueller Assistant Vice President [COLUMBUS] Charles F. Williams Vice President ® As oJ December 31, 1992 [ CLEVELAND DIRECTORS (standing) Alfred C. Leist; john R. Hodges; Frank Wobst; Laban P.jackson,jr. (seated) William T. McConnell: Chairman John R. M!lIer [ CLEVELAND ] Chaim1Qn & Federa l Reserve Agent J ohn R Mill er Fonner President & ChieJOperati ng Officer William T McConnell President, The Park National Bank, Newark, Ohio Standard Oil Company oj Ohio, Clevelalld, Ohio Do uglas E. Olesen Deputy Chaim1Q /l A Will iam Reyn old s Chairman &C11ieJExea,tiveOfficer GenCorp, Fai rlawn, Oh io Verna K. Gibson President & C11ieJExecutive OJJicer Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio FrankWobst Chairman & C11ieJ Executive Officer Huntington Bancshares Incorporated, Columhus, Ohio Business Consultan t, Columbus, Ohio J ohn R Hodges Preside nt, OhioAFL-CIO, Columbus, Ohio Federal AdviSOry Council Representative J ohn B. McCoy Laban P.Jackson,jr. Chaima n, Clearcrecl1 Properties, Lexington, Kentucky Alfred C Leist Chai rman, Presidwt & ChieJ Executive Officer The Apple Creek Banl1ing Co., Apple Creek, Ohio C11ainllan & ChieJ Executive Officer Banc One Corporation, Columbus, Ohio 1 ® [ [ C INC INN AT Cl ClNNATI DIRECTORS (standll1g) Clay Parker Davis; Raymond A. Bradbury; jack W. Buchanan (seated) Marvin Rosenberg; Eleanor Hicks r] CJwinl1an Mar vin Rosenberg Partner Towne Properties, Ltd., Cincinnati, Ohio Raymond A. Brad b ury CJwirnwn Martin County Coal Corporation, Inez, KenlUc11Y J ack W. Buchanan President, Sphar & Company, Il1c., Winchester, Kentuchy Clay Parker Davis President & Chief Exccutlve Officer Citizens National Bal1i1, Somerset, Kentllci1y Elean or Hicks Seniol' Partner & Chief Executive Officer Hicks & Killley, Cillcinnati, Ohio Harry A. Sh aw, III Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Huffy Corporation, Dayt.on, Ohio Mar vin]. Stammen President and Chief Executive Officer Second National Bani1, GreenVille, Ohio [ PITTSBURGH DIRECTORS (sta/1dll1g) George A. Davldson,jr.; Wilham F. Roemer; I.l" Rendall Harpcr,jr (seated ) David S. Dahlmann; Sandra l. PhillIps 1 [ PITTSBURGH ] Chaimwn Robert P. Bozzo ne President & Chlcf Exccutil'e Officer Allegheny Ludlum Corporation, Pil tsbUl'gh, Penllsyll'anw David S. Dahlm ann Presidel1! alld Chicf ExcClItivc Officer Southwest NatIOnal Corporatioll, Greensburg, Pennsylvania George A. David son,] r. Chairman & Chief Executive Officer COl1solidated Natural Gas Compal1Y, PittsbLlrgh, Pcnl1sylvanw LN. Rendall Harper,]r. PI'esident, Americal1 Micrographics Co., Inc. Monroeville, Pennsylval1ia Sandra L. Phillips ExeCUlive Director, Pittsbltl'gh Partl1C1"ship for Neighborhood DevcioplllCllt, Pittsburgh. Pel1nsylval1ia J ack B. PiaLl Chainl1an of the Board Mil/craft Indus rries, Inc., Washington, Pennsylvanltl W illiam F. Roemer Chainnan & Chief Executive Officer Integra Final1cial Corporarion, Pittsburgh, PennsylvClnw 1 o/~~ rmaJo/'ce~ Q/maIt'rmaJ ~ceOiMUt<f'1991-9rJ SMALL BA K ADV1S0RY COU ClL (standing) Danelda Drewes; Ernest]. McFarland; C. Richard Hubbard; Blair A. Hillyer;j. CUrl Gardner,James C. Willen, Joe L. Wilson (seated )JamesA. Carr, Thomas F. Hile, Tiney McComb, David S. Dahlmann [ - James A. Carr President and CEO The National Bank of North East North East, Pennsylvania David S. Dahlmann President and CEO Southwest Natiollal Bani! of Pennsylvania Greensburg, Pennsylvania Danelda Drewes President and CEO The Corn City State Bank Deshler, Ohio j. CUrl Gardn er President and CEO Irwin Bani! and Tmst Company Irwin, Pennsylvania Blair A. Hillyer President and CEO The First Natio nal Bank of Dennison Dennison, Ohio Thomas F Hite President and CEO The Croghan Colonial Banll Fremont , Ohio C Richard Hubbard President and CEO The Liberty National Bank Ada, Ohio Tiney McComb Chail111Qn, President and CEO Hearlland Banll Croton, Ohio Ernest]. McFarland President and CEO First State Banll of Adams County Winchester, Ohio J oe L Wilson President and CEO United National Bank-North WJleeling, West Virginia James C Witten CIlairman and CEO First Natio nal Bank of Paintsville Paintsville, Kentu cky 1 qetUd~ ~Jo/' -(dve&nd Q/mafflrP~~ £oa?uit!lfJfJ2-fJa! SMALL BUSI ESSADVI ORY COU\JCIL r James E. Bushman (standlllg) Lee T Todd.jr .. john . Taylor.Jr.: Randall Russell . james E Bushman; H Edward Rigel (seated) Brad Roller; Prcsidemjerry L.jordan.jamcs A. Poure Dr. Randall L. C. Russell President Cast-Fab Technologies, In L CinCll1l1ati, OhIO Dale C. Phillip President Ranbar Tcchnology In c. Glenshaw. PCllnsylvaliia Peter . Stephans President KifJel Industries InL Cleveland, OhIO James A. Poure Chall1l1an alld CEO General AlullI & Chellllcal Corporalion Holland , Ohio H. Edward Rigel Owner Operator Rigel Fanlls InL Leipsic, Ohio Brad Roller President Swiger Coil Systems, Illc. Cleveland, Ohio Sco tt Rusch Vice PreSident Anolllatic Corp. Newark, Oh io President Dynalllc!./n L Wash II1gton. PCI1I1sylvallia John . Taylor,Jr. Chalrlllan and CEO Kurz-Kosch , In c. Day toll, 0/110 Dr. Lee T. Todd ,Jr. Chairman and CEO DataBeam COI'poratlOll Lexillgtoll , KenwcllY Richard D. Zande Choll"l1wn R. D. Zandc & AssoCIates, Ltd. Columbus, 0 /110 l The Federal Reserve System is responsible ror rormulating and implementing U.s, monetary policy, It also supervises banks and bank holding companies, and provides rinancial services to depository institutions and the rederal governmenL The Federal Reserve Bank or Cleveland is one or 12 regional Reserve Banks in the United States thaI, together with the Board or Governors in Washington , D,C, comprise the Federal Reserve System, The Federal Reserve Bank or Cleveland, its two branches in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and its Columbus Office serve the Fourth Federal Reserve DistricL The Fourth District includes Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle or West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky, o printed on recycled paper Cleveland 1-155 Eas c6ch ScreeC Clevcla lid, 0 H -14 114 (2 16) 579-2000 Cincinnali 150 Eas t 4rh Sow Ci nw lIlCI cl , OH 45202 (5 13) 72H787 Pillsburgh 717 Cran CScree c Plcrsbll rgh, PA 15219 (-l 12) 261-7800 Columbus 965 KlI1gsnllll Pa rkway Colum bus, 0 1-143229 (61-1)846-7494 This annual report was prepared by the Public Affairs and Bank Relauons Department and the Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. For addillonal copies of this report. contact the Public Affairs and Bank Relallons Department. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. PO. Box 6387. Cleveland. OH 44101, or call 1-800-543-3489. Design: Michael Galka Photography: Bill Pappas