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965 ■m THE AIRLINES: a growth industry, credit aids expansio To the M em ber Banks o f the Seventh Federal Reserve District: It is our pleasure to submit to you the Annual Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago for the year 1965. Continuation of the favorable growth of economic activity and of banking has highlighted the past year. Some of the more significant developments are described briefly at the beginning of this report. A discussion of the airlines industry and its role in the economy of the Midwest and the nation is presented on pages 7-37. Official appointments and elections during the year are reported on pages 42-44. The volume of transactions in many department of the Bank has continued to rise as business activity in the Seventh District has expanded further (pages 40 and 41). On behalf of the directors, officers and staff, I extend to you appreciation for your cooperation and counsel which has enabled us to provide continued high-quality financial services to the public. Sincerely, C January 27, 1966 J. S c a n l o n President h a r le s Econom ic D evelo p m en ts ■ business activity continued to expand at a vigorous pace in 1965 as most firms experienced strength ening demand for their products or services. Farm income rose in response to higher livestock prices and larger crop production. Credit demands were strong throughout all sectors of the economy. At yearend, output, employment, income and sales were still rising and the expectation was widespread that the uptrend in business would continue well into 1966. A ctivity in m ajor D istrict industries moved ahead vigorously in 1965 except steel a fte r m idyear per cent, 1957-59=100 Business expenditures for durable equipment in 1965 were more than 15 per cent higher than in the preceding year for the nation as a whole. Output of business equipment increased sharply, relatively much more than the 8 per cent rise in total industrial production. Moreover, order backlogs for electrical and nonelectrical machinery increased throughout the year. The continued strong demand for machinery and equipment is particularly important for such centers as Milwaukee, Rockford and Peoria. The automobile industry experienced another rec ord year. More than 11 million passenger cars and trucks were produced, far more than ever before. Sales of new cars, including imports, exceeded 9 mil lion units, surpassing the previous record of 1964 by 15 per cent. The continued strong demand for autos reflected both increased incomes and willingness of many households to incur additional instalment debt. W holesale prices o f a b road range o f commodities increased durin g 1965 per cent change (October 1964-October 1965) -5 0 *5 *10 *15 *20 all commodities farm products livestock and poultry grains processed foods meat, pou ltry and fish dairy products canned and frozen foods 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 Activity in major Midwest industrial centers moved close to capacity, with the available labor force and plant facilities being utilized more fully than at any time in at least a decade. This favorable condition reflected the general increase in demand and especially the high and rising outlays for pro ducers’ and consumers’ durable goods, both impor tant in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. 2 Annual Report, 1965 metal and metal products iron and steel nonferrous metals machinery and equipment agr icu lt ur al equipment c o n s tr uc tio n equipment m et a lw or k in g machinery e le c t r ic a l ma c hi ne ry household durables f ur n itu re ap p lia nc es television and radio chemicals industrial chemicals drugs fats and oils Total outstanding consumer debt increased about 12 per cent during the year while auto credit rose by about 14 per cent. Because of the lengthy labor-management negoti ations, the steel industry posed a potential source of instability throughout much of the year. Steel output reached an annual rate of more than 145 million tons in the spring and remained at a high level until early September when a collective bargaining agreement was reached. Usage of steel was at an all-time high, and, in addition, major steel users built up large in ventories in the face of a possible industry-wide strike. As orders were cut back and inventories were worked down in September and October, steel pro duction was reduced sharply, but output was rising again toward year end. Increased activity in the auto and capital equipment industries helped to offset the impact of the decline in steel output on overall busi ness activity. Unemployment continued to decline as activity rose. In the fourth quarter, unemployment rates in the District states ranged from 1.2 per cent in Iowa to 2.5 per cent in Illinois and Michigan and were well below the national average. Labor shortages were reported for many skills in numerous areas. Some upward movement in wholesale prices oc curred during the year especially in food and nonferrous metals. With demand rising relative to capacity, price increases were reported for a growing number of commodities after midyear. Strong rise in farm income Net income from farming reached the highest level in more than a decade. Moreover, with the number of Hog prices sharply above y e a r e a rlie r dollars per cwt. Income from cattle feeding m arkedly im proved farms declining further, net income per farm rose to record levels. The greatly improved farm income situation resulted mainly from higher livestock prices but also was aided by increased U. S. Government payments under the feed grain and wheat programs. Prices of hogs rose sharply during the first half of 1965 and continued at very high levels in the re mainder of the year. Even though farmers had cur tailed production, their income from hogs was higher than at any time since the early Fifties. Production of beef was slightly greater than in the previous year, and prices averaged somewhat higher. Corn Belt feedlot operations turned in the highest profits in recent years. Dairy farmers also realized somewhat higher incomes—a result of small gains in both prices and production. Farmers’ income from crops was somewhat higher than in 1964 as a result of the larger Government payments. The production of crops was at a record high in the District states. With farm income increasing and bumper crops to be harvested, farmers stepped up their purchases of machinery, especially tractors and corn harvesting equipment. Also, prices of farm real estate rose at a faster pace, especially in the Corn Belt states. B anks continue rap id grow th Financial developments in 1965 reflected a com bination of the accelerated pace of business activity and monetary policy designed to encourage economic growth with price stability. In this environment, bank credit rose faster than in other recent years but was Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 3 accompanied by rising interest rates. Strong demand for funds by business to finance the expansion of facilities and working capital was the major force behind the record increase in member bank loans. Farmers used large amounts of credit to finance operating expenses and to purchase land and machinery. Total loans and discounts of Seventh District member banks at the end of November were 18 per cent above year-ago levels. This compares with a 15 per cent increase at all member banks in the na tion and with the previous record District gain of 15 per cent in 1963. The aggregate increase in earning assets was some what less than the increase in loans as some banks financed part of the loan expansion by selling U. S. Government securities. For all member banks in the District, holdings of these securities fell about 8 per cent. However, the net purchases of other secu rities—mainly municipals and U. S. agency issues—al most fully offset the net liquidation of Governments. On balance, total bank credit expanded by about 10 per cent in the past year, compared with a 9 per cent gain in 1964. Credit demands were strong in all District areas. However, Michigan banks reported the largest loan increases—33 per cent in Detroit and 19 per cent in the rest of Michigan. Detroit banks also reported the greatest reduction in holdings of Governments. Loans increased throughout the year in contrast to the usual pattern of substantial pay-downs in Jan uary and February. After the effects of steel stock piling and the strong rise of foreign lending preceding the issuance of “voluntary credit restraint” guidelines had passed, loan growth slowed. The decline in Gov ernments occurred gradually until the final quarter when it was reversed as a result of the Treasury’s sea sonal financing operations. Banks’ acquisitions of municipals proceeded at a rapid rate in the first half but slowed markedly as the year progressed. Much of the push behind loan demand stemmed from the business community. Statements of the large District banks where business loans are heavily con centrated indicate a sharp rise for 1965 in the rate of growth in loans to commercial, industrial and non bank financial firms. Real estate loans also rose more rapidly than in 1964 but consumer loans at these banks slowed, contrary to the national experi ence. At country banks the expansion in loans on farm real estate continued at about the same rate as in the previous year. The strong overall demands for credit in the econ omy have afforded profitable loan and investment opportunities which have stimulated banks to bid ac- 4 Annual Report, 1965 Loan growth a t new high in 1965 tively for funds. The continued acquisition of mort gages and tax-exempt securities, concurrent with meeting heavy demand for business, agricultural and consumer credit, reflects another year of substantial deposit inflows and some increase in borrowed funds. Deposits rose 9 per cent—about the same as in 1964. Despite increased income in the District, demand deposits rose only 3.5 per cent during 1965—slightly less than in the prior year. At agricultural banks, however, demand deposits increased considerably more than in other recent years while major city banks obtained a somewhat smaller share of the de mand deposit growth. As in other recent years, the major growth compo nent was time deposits. Total time deposits rose about 16 per cent during the year, and by year-end time and savings accounts of District members were nearly equal to their aggregate demand deposits. Five years earlier, time and savings deposits were some 40 per cent below demand deposits of these banks. To attract funds, many banks made further up ward adjustments in rates paid on savings and time deposits. Additional upward flexibility in these rates had been gained through increases in the maximum rates permitted under Regulation Q in November 1964. The large money market banks continued to issue negotiable certificates of deposit. The net inflow from this source accounted for about 10 per cent of the aggregate expansion in time deposits. Most banks, however, grew mainly by attracting savings balances. Even at the large weekly reporting banks, savings ac- counted for 70 per cent of the total growth in time and savings deposits against 50 per cent in 1964. A large portion of the funds used to finance loans and investments has been acquired through con tinued aggressive competition for the savings and short-term investment funds of individuals, corpora tions and governmental units. Many of these are in terest-sensitive funds which can be retained only so long as banks continue to offer returns equivalent to those available on alternative investments. To the extent that such funds are received in the form of time deposits, they are subject to reserve require ments, FDIC assessments and Regulation Q ceilings. Some banks also use promissory notes, repurchase agreements and Federal funds purchases as sources of funds. While these instruments are free from the reserve requirement, maturity and rate limitations of CDs, they usually provide funds on a very short term basis. Even notes with maturities of six months or more may be presented for payment much earlier since, in the absence of a secondary market in these instruments, the issuing bank may stand ready to re purchase them prior to maturity on request. The volume of promissory notes outstanding is still quite small. Estimates for the country as a whole place the total at about 500 million dollars compared with about 16 billion dollars of CDs. In the late sum mer and fall, the rates offered by large banks on CDs pressed against the legal maximum interest rates per mitted on time deposits. In these circumstances some banks boosted the amount of promissory notes out standing. When the ceiling was again raised on all Large banks show big gains in business loans Time and savings deposits account fo r most o f deposit grow th time deposits (but not savings deposits) last Decem ber, a major reason for selling notes was removed. Competition for funds with which to acquire highyield assets has changed the historical relationships between types of bank assets and types of liabilities. At current costs, it is profitable to acquire funds only if they are invested in high-yield assets. Midyear call reports of District member banks indicated that mort gages and municipal securities amounted to onefourth of total earning assets at reserve city banks and one-third at country banks. Moreover, loan ma turities have lengthened. In the first three quarterly interest rate surveys last year, 13 per cent of the dollar volume of new loans reported were term loans, against 9 per cent five years ago. Thus, assets ap pear to be less liquid and liabilities more volatile. M o n etary policy and in terest rates Reserves of member banks rose rapidly in the first half of 1965, leveled off in the summer and increased sharply again in December. For the year, additional reserves were supplied to the banking system at a rate of about 5 per cent—somewhat more rapidly than for any previous year in the 1961-65 expansion pe riod. Money supply (demand deposits and currency held by the public) increased at a slightly higher rate than in 1964, and bank credit expanded at a record rate of 10 per cent. The demands for funds in the economy were so strong, however, that even with this very substantial growth in credit, interest rates moved higher, especially after midyear. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 5 To have met the heavier credit demands of 1965 without any rise in interest rates would have required acceleration of the unusually rapid growth in money and credit that occurred throughout the year. With the economy already at capacity in many areas, this would have exerted upward pressure on prices. All segments of the money market felt the impact of the strong demand for funds. Beginning in March the prevailing rate for Federal funds moved up to 4V& per cent and by autumn transactions at 4.25 per cent were fairly common. The yield on three-month bills rose above 4 per cent in October and reached 4.40 per cent by Mid-December on a discount basis. Yields in the bond markets began to show a rising trend in early fall. Rates on corporate securities were affected by a large volume of new issues after midyear. The tax-exempt market was strongly in fluenced by changes in bank demand for state and local issues. These issues have been an important outlet for time deposit funds, and spurts in their av erage yield during the past year occurred in corporate tax and dividend months when banks were under pressure to meet loan demand and CD maturities. The typical rate on home mortgages, after a long pe riod of stability, moved up several basis points in October and November and, as the year drew to a close, there were scattered signs of reduced availabil ity of mortgage credit and some further tightening of mortgage terms. Residential construction in major Seventh Federal Reserve District metropolitan areas increased substantially in 1965, however. In early December, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System approved discount rate in creases from 4 to 4.50 per cent in the New York and Chicago districts (followed shortly by a like change in the other 10 districts). This action was expected to help bring about a slowing of credit growth to a rate more consistent with the growth of available labor and industrial capacity and to dampen the buildup of inflationary pressures. The move was also consistent with balance of payments objectives, although these were a less important reason than in the two previous discount rate increases in 1963 and 1964. Concur rently, the Board again changed Regulation Q to set the maximum interest rate permissible on time depos its at 5.50 per cent—up from 4 per cent on 30 to 89 day maturities and from 4.50 per cent on CDs of 90 days and longer. The ceiling on passbook sav ings deposit rates—now 4 per cent—was not changed. The immediate impact of the announced changes was a further rise in yields in all segments of the money and securities markets. Many large banks in dicated that they had adjusted their minimum loan rate, the prime rate, from 4.50 to 5 per cent. Bill yields rose by more than V\ per cent and bond prices dropped sharply. Rates remained at the higher levels through the peak period of loan demand in midDecember despite a larger than seasonal flow of re serves into the banking system. As 1 96 6 o p e n s . . . Interest rates move higher per cent 7 r SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bulletin, Federal Housing Adm inistration, Salomon Brothers and H utzler. 6 Annual Report, 1965 The nation embarks into 1966 closer to its eco nomic goals than in many years. On the whole, 1965 was a year of healthy economic expansion although some evidences of imbalance were perceptible late in the year. In this District, particularly, tight labor supplies and other shortages in facilities coupled with strong demand posed a threat to price stability. If current plans are carried out in the new year, addi tions to new plant and equipment will add substan tially to productive capacity. Flows of money and credit will need to be adjusted to accommodate changes in demand and capacity. Interest rates will reflect the strength of credit demand. If loan demand continues strong, some further impact may be felt in the mortgage and tax-exempt markets. Banks are faced with an ever more insistent chal lenge to maintain a proper balance between their asset mix and the nature of their liabilities. More and more, banks must weigh the costs and benefits of growth accomplished through active competition for funds and the acquisition of risk assets that will cover the accompanying rise in interest expense. THE AIRLINES: a growth industry, credit aids expansion ( ^ ) n a typical day more than 250,000 persons board commercial airliners in the United States, trav eling for business, pleasure or other personal rea sons. Some are off on short hops, such as Chicago to Detroit, while others head for points as far away as Istanbul, Tokyo or Sydney. Each of these trav elers reaches his destination in a matter of hours. Time saved compared with surface travel ranges from hours to weeks. Many travelers return home the same day after round trips of a thousand miles or more to have dinner with their families. The jet age of air travel on U. S. airlines is now in its eighth year, starting with the first transatlantic flights in Boeing 707s late in 1958. Douglas DC-8s entered service the following year. Improved and specialized versions of these four-engined aircraft currently are in production. Meanwhile, smaller jet planes designed for shorter trips are coming into service in increasing numbers. Almost 90 per cent of all airline passenger miles now are flown in turbine-powered planes, either pure jet or turboprop. In 1966 some of the trunk airlines are scheduled to complete the transition to all tur bine service. By the end of the decade, all of the piston-powered aircraft probably will have been re tired by the U. S. airlines. The DC-3s, DC-6s, DC-7s, Convairs, Martins and Constellations are still excel lent machines but now have been outclassed. Not only are the jets faster and more comfortable than the aircraft being replaced but also are more economical. Experience has shown that profitable operations on competitive routes require that the public be offered top-quality service in the best equipment available. Anything less may lead to defi cits and possible bankruptcy or merger with a strong er line. Following the introduction of the first jets and turboprops, the backlog of flight equipment ordered by U. S. airlines at the peak in 1959 totaled 2.5 billion dollars—double the book value of all equip ment then in service. There were suggestions that financial disaster might result from “too many seats in the sky.” A slowdown in the growth of air travel in the early Sixties lent credence to these fears. Since 1962, however, total airline passenger traf fic has grown at a rate of about 15 per cent each year. During the same period air freight and express traffic has increased more than 20 per cent an nually. As a result, the airlines, backed by credits arranged with commercial banks and other institu tions, have embarked upon a second major wave of jet aircraft acquisitions. A recent industry survey indicates that 704 air craft valued at 3.7 billion dollars will be acquired in the 1965-69 period—far more than the capital ex penditures contemplated only two or three years ago. This program both reflects and helps to support continued economic expansion. A sto ry of grow th Because passenger revenues constitute 82 per cent of all operating revenues of U. S. airlines, the volume of business is measured most commonly by passenger miles (one passenger carried one mile Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 7 equals one passenger mile). In 1965, 95 million passengers traveled an average of roughly 700 miles each for a total of 67 billion miles, about 16 per cent more than in the previous year. Total ton miles (10 passengers and their baggage or a ton of prop erty flown one mile) and total revenues rose by sim ilar proportions. Last year’s increase in airline business was three times as great as the 5 per cent rise in total output of goods and services but was typical of postwar ex perience. From 1947 through 1965 the average an nual growth in airline passenger miles was 12.8 per cent compared with a growth rate for the entire economy of 3.7 per cent. Using the alternative and more inclusive measure of revenue ton miles, the an nual growth of airline services was 14 per cent in the postwar period. According to a U. S. Department of Commerce study of 374 products and services, the airlines have expanded at double the rate of the electric utilities and the motor truck lines—their closest rivals among the major service industries. Among manufactured prod ucts, only such new items as polyethylene, high pu rity oxygen and air conditioners have outperformed the airlines consistently. But annual sales of these fast growing products amount to only a tiny fraction of the airlines’ gross revenues, currently about 5 bil lion dollars. The uptrend in airline revenues and ton miles has Airl ine revenue g row th has accelerated in recent years billion doll ars SOURCE: C ivil A eron a u tics Board. 8 Annual Report, 1965 M ore than 70,000 passengers w ere han d le d each day d u rin g the Christmas season a t C hicago's O 'H a re Field been slowed in the postwar recession periods of 195354, 1957-58, and 1960-61. Total revenues and traffic have never declined on a year-to-year basis, but the rate of advance has been highly sensitive to cyclical changes in economic activity. Public c a rrie r num ber one Private autos have accounted for about 90 per cent of intercity passenger miles in recent years as was the case prior to World War II. There seems little prospect that the relative place of the auto will be altered appreciably as the predominant means of travel, particularly on trips of 200 miles or less. Air line traffic growth largely reflects diversions of busi ness from railroads, buses and ships and encourage ment of travel that would not have taken place but for the availability of this rapid and comfortable means of transport. Airline passenger travel was one of the relatively few economic activities that increased in volume throughout the Depression years. In fact, annual in creases averaged almost 30 per cent in the years 1931-33. Airline passenger miles in the latter year totaled 200 million but still accounted for only a tiny fraction of intercity common carrier traffic (rail roads, airlines and buses) in the United States. With the DC-3 as the standard airliner, passenger miles passed the 1 billion mark by 1940. Even so, the airlines accounted for only 3 per cent of intercity passenger traffic handled by common carriers. In troduction of four-engined aircraft after World War II, coupled with improved service and greater public acceptance, boosted domestic airline miles over the 10 billion total in 1951. In that year airlines ac counted for 17 per cent of intercity passenger miles —for the first time exceeding the first-class rail total. Airline traffic passed the total for intercity buses in 1955, railroad travel including coach in 1957 and the total for railroads and the buses combined in 1963. In the latter year more than 51 per cent of all intercity common carrier passenger travel was by air. This proportion was about 55 per cent in 1965. Improved equipment and scheduling have been heavily responsible for the growth of air travel. Rela tive stability of charges in the face of a generally ris ing price level also has been important. Despite im proved service, airline fares averaged 6.1 cents per mile in 1964—compared with 5.3 cents in the years prior to World War II and 5.8 cents in the late For ties. The average of all consumer prices has more than doubled since 1939. Average airline fares have been held down, in part, by a variety of pricing innovations. Coach ser vice with higher density seating and fewer “frills” than first-class service was introduced by the trunk lines in 1948. Since that time a number of special arrange ments have been introduced, including family plans under which the spouse and children of a passenger paying full fare are carried at a substantial discount and group plans that encourage excursions. Service men on leave have been carried at half price since 1963 on a standby basis. The proportion of passen gers paying coach or other economy fares has in creased steadily and now accounts for about 75 per cent of the total. The increase in airline travel has been both a cause and an effect of reductions in passenger service by the railroads. Combined first-class and intercity coach railroad travel has declined in all but one of the years since World War II—the Korean War year 1951. Total railroad passenger miles in 1964 were only half as great as 15 years earlier. Railroads for many years have regarded most of their passenger business as a losing proposition, but the regulatory process slowed withdrawal. With the growth in availability of air service and improved highways, and a more permissive regulatory climate, the railroads have gained greater freedom to reduce the number of scheduled passenger runs. The process has been cumulative. The reduction in train service Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago g in many centers has forced reluctant travelers onto the highways or into the air. A ir serv ice to sm a lle r tow ns Rapid development of local service airlines, estab lished with the help of liberal Government subsidies in the early postwar years, has brought modern air transportation to hundreds of medium- and smallersized communities, most of which have been fast losing rail passenger service. While at some large cities the expansion of air operations has more than offset withdrawals of trains, the picture is different for many moderate-sized centers. Numerous thriving communities in the 5,000 to 20,000 population range today have fewer common carrier passenger schedules than in the early postwar years. As recently as 1947, 13 one-way train operations were offered on a typical weekday by four rail lines between St. Louis and Chicago. Smaller places lying between the big terminal cities also had relatively convenient rail service. Decatur had four daily trains to Chicago; Springfield had ten; Bloomington eight; Taylorville three; Carlinville two; Lincoln three, and Pontiac had four. Travelers from St. Louis in 1947 also could select from a total of 14 airline schedules to Chicago. But no scheduled air service to Chicago was available at any of the intermediate points. (Three flights served Peoria, which does not lie on a direct St. Louis-Chicago rail route.) Today, of course, the air and rail schedules are quite different for some of the centers in the St. Louis-Chicago sector. A local service line, Ozark Airlines, now offers eight northward schedules daily from Springfield, three from Bloomington and six from Decatur. No other scheduled air service is available to Chicago from communities in the St. Louis-Chicago corridor. Marked reductions in rail service have occurred since 1947. The 13-train schedule from St. Louis to Chicago has been reduced to six. One of the four railroads has no passenger operations at all on this line, and two railroads have discontinued overnight trains. Alternatives have narrowed sharply at intermedi ate points. A few small communities have lost all rail service to Chicago. At Springfield, schedules northward today are down to four from ten in 1947; at Decatur there are two compared to four, and Bloomington is down to three from eight. All three of these cities now have air service, however, with schedules that give the traveler a choice of departure times as good or better than ever before. 10 Annual Report, 1965 Curtailment of train services has not been accom panied by the inauguration of air scheduling at such communities as Carlinville, Dwight, Clinton, Pana, Lincoln and Pontiac. Because intercity bus opera tions also have been curtailed, reduced rail service at these towns has meant a net loss in common car rier passenger scheduling. The accompanying map shows the changes in pas senger service scheduling that have occurred since the war in three Midwest travel corridors from Chicago fanning outward to Sioux City-Qmaha and Detroit as well as to St. Louis. Typical Chicago-bound week day rail and air schedules at most towns of 5,000 and more in 1947-48 are contrasted with those of 1965. Clearly, total schedules by air and rail car riers have broadened substantially at the terminal points and at some of the intermediate points. The contraction of rail passenger operations began well before the postwar period. Probably it has been related more closely to the automobile than to the plane, especially in short- and medium-haul markets. Capture by the airlines of long-haul traffic from the rails, of course, has tended to accelerate schedule reductions at points along the rail lines as well. The present-day pattern of airline operation has brought the overwhelming majority of the popula tion well within a 60 to 90 minute drive of airports with scheduled service. Residents of Chicago, New York and Los Angeles may spend almost as much time driving to or from the airport through rush- Domestic a ir travel now exceeds bus and ra il com bined billion passenger miles SOURCE: A ir T ra n spo rt Association. Typical w e e kd a y ra il and a irlin e service to C hicago and three M idw est ra il corridors DETROIT and Chicago 16 6 27 34 3 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 11 7 2 4 N um ber o f departures C h a rlo tte 2 2 0 0 Railroads D o w a g ia c 5 1 0 0 D e tro it-A n n A rb o r Michigan A d ria n B attle C reek N um ber o f departures 1947 G ra n d Rapids 3 2 6 11 H olland 3 2 0 0 O m aha Jackson 8 4 0 2 Sioux C ity K a la m a zo o 8 4 0 5 Iowa Lansing 5 3 3 0 1965 Railroads Airlines 1947 1965 Airlines 1947 1965 1947 1965 0 Iowa N ew ton 5 3 0 19 10 9 9 O e lw e in 2 0 0 0 4 1 0 5 O ttum w a 6 5 0 3 Perry 2 3 0 0 A lg o n a 1 0 0 0 Red O a k 3 4 0 0 OMAHA-SIOUX CITY and Chicago M a rsh a ll 5 0 0 0 Ames 7 0 0 0 Spencer 1 0 0 0 Niles 8 4 0 0 A tla n tic 3 2 0 0 W a te rlo o 5 2 0 6 St. Joseph-Benton H a rb o r 3 2 0 3 10 0 0 0 W e b s te r C ity 2 1 0 0 7 5 1 4 Illinois 0 Indiana Boone Burlington M ich ig a n C ity 27 18 0 0 C a rro ll South Bend 33 19 7 9 C e d a r R ap ids-M a rio n ST. LOUIS and Chicago St. Louis 13 6 13 31 1 0 0 5 1 0 0 F re e po rt 5 2 0 0 13 11 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 11 3 2 0 0 C harles C ity 2 0 0 0 G a le sb u rg C herokee 2 1 0 0 Geneseo C hariton Illin o is B e lvide re D ixon 4 13 B loom ington 8 3 0 3 Clinton C a rlin v ille 2 2 0 0 Creston 12 1 0 2 K ew anee 5 3 0 0 5 5 0 0 La S a lle -O tta w a -P e ru 7 4 0 0 0 Clinton 3 1 0 0 Des M oines 11 3 6 11 M e nd o ta 5 3 0 D ecatur 4 2 0 6 D ubuque 11 7 0 5 M onm outh 4 3 0 0 14 7 0 0 F a irfie ld 4 4 0 0 M o rris 3 2 0 0 Lincoln 3 3 0 0 Fort D odge 2 1 0 4 Princeton Litch fie ld 6 3 0 0 G rinn e ll 5 3 0 0 Q u a d C itie s* Pana 1 0 0 0 Independence 3 2 0 0 Pontiac 4 3 0 0 Iow a C ity 5 3 1 2 10 4 0 8 M a rsha llto w n 11 3 0 0 T a y lo rv ille 3 2 0 0 M ason C ity 3 0 0 W a tse ka 5 2 0 0 M ount Pleasant 2 4 0 K a n kake e S p rin g fie ld 4 3 0 0 10 4 6 11 Rochelle 6 4 0 0 Rockford 5 2 0 3 Savanna 9 8 0 0 3 Sterling-R ock Falls 5 1 0 2 0 S ycam ore-D e K a lb 7 1 0 0 *lncludes Iow a p o rtio n . SOURCE: O ffic ia l Guide o f the Railways (September 1947 and S eptem ber 1965), O ffic ia l A irline Guide (Septem ber 1965). Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 11 hour traffic as individuals residing considerable dis tances from smaller airports. Many industry observers have emphasized the need for a comprehensive third level of airline ser vice (air taxis), supplementing the local service lines, for communities without easy access to existing lines. Several such carriers are currently in operation. Wider development of such services is limited by the high seat-mile cost of operating small aircraft seating only a few passengers. Som e e a r ly histo ry Near Kitty Hawk on North Carolina’s Outer Banks an impressive monument commemorates the first powered flight—December 17, 1903—of a heavierthan-air craft, designed, built and piloted by Orville and Wilbur Wright. This achievement rightfully holds an honored place in the history of aviation. A full generation was to elapse, however, before commer cial aviation played a significant role in the transpor- Com m ercial a irlin e operations a t points in the Seventh District, ye a r ended June 30, 1964 Scheduled departures perform ed Passengers enplaned Scheduled departures perfo rm e d Airlines Passengers enplaned Airlines (thousands) (thousands! Iow a Illinois OZ Bloom ington 1.6 4.2 OZ O ttum w a 1.9 4.7 Champaign 4.6 34.9 OZ Sioux C ity 5.3 34.4 B N ,N O ,O Z 172.2 7,445.5 AA,BN ,C O ,DL,EA, W a te rlo o 6.6 37.5 B N ,O Z C hicago L C ,N O ,N W ,O Z ,T W ,U A Danville 2.0 6.3 LC D ecatur 3.5 20.1 OZ G alesburg 1.0 3.9 OZ M a tto o n 1.2 2.8 OZ Peoria 7.9 65.3 OZ Q uad C ities 8.4 99.8 O Z ,U A Rockford 2.2 8.3 OZ S pringfield 7.4 44.7 OZ Sterling 1.3 2.3 OZ 1.4 4.6 Columbus 0.5 0.2 Fort W a yn e 5.0 76.4 Indianapolis 0.7 1.8 NO Battle C reek 1.7 16.9 NO Benton H a rb o r 1.7 9.0 NO C a d illa c 0.6 0.9 57.6 1,644.7 5.6 28.6 N O ,U A 12.1 120.0 LC ,N O ,U A D etroit-A nn A rb o r NO AA,AL,DL,EA,LC, M O ,N O ,N W ,T W ,U A Flint G ra n d Rapids Jackson 1.8 4.7 K alam azoo 3.3 28.0 LC ,N O LC Lansing 7.2 54.6 N O ,U A LC M anistee 1.1 2.7 DL,UA Muskegon 4.1 30.7 Pellston 2.3 8.4 Port Huron 0.5 0.6 Indiana Bloom ington M ich ig a n A lpena LC ,N O NO N O ,U A NO * 23.7 505.7 Kokomo 1.7 3.8 Lafayette 3.6 17.6 LC Saginaw 5.9 63.1 N O ,U A M a rio n 1.7 2.2 LC Traverse C ity 2.8 15.8 NO M uncie 1.3 4.5 LC A p p le to n 1.1 7.0 NO B eloit 2.5 5.9 NO Richmond 0.5 0.4 South Bend 8.3 79.5 AA,D L,EA,LC ,O Z,TW LC LC LC ,N O ,U A Iow a Burlington 2.0 10.1 OZ C e d a r Rapids 8.1 74.4 O Z ,U A C lin to n 1.9 4.0 11.0 201.8 Dubuque 2.9 Ford D odge Io w a C ity Mason C ity Des Moines W isconsin C lin to n v ille 1.4 1.3 NO G reen Bay 8.1 81.7 NO N O ,N W ,O Z M adison 9.6 94.0 OZ M a n ito w o c 1.4 3.5 B N ,O Z ,U A M arshfield 0.7 1.1 11.0 OZ M ilw aukee 27.6 418.9 2.6 8.4 OZ Oshkosh 3.3 32.9 NO 1.3 6.5 OZ Stevens Point 2.3 5.2 NO 2.1 11.0 OZ W ausau 3.6 18.7 NO NO NO E A ,N O ,N W ,O Z ,U A *S ervice n o t cu rren tly p ro vid e d . Key: AL— A llegheny, A A — Am erican, BN — Braniff, C O — C on tin en ta l, DL-— D elta, EA— Eastern, LC— Lake C en tra l, M O — M ohaw k, N O — N o rth C en tra l, N W — N o rth w e st, O Z — O za rk, T W — T W A , UA— U nited. SOURCE: A irp o rt A ctivity Statistics o f C ertificated Route A ir Carriers (January 1965), C iv il A eronautics Board and Federal A via tio n Agency. 12 Annual Report, 1965 tation system of the United States. For several years after 1903, few people were aware that the principles of controlled flight had been mastered. There had been too many well-publicized tragic or comic failures. Moreover, eminent scientists had published articles for popular consumption “proving” that manned flight was physically impos sible. As a result, the early successes of the Wrights were ignored or reported inaccurately, even by their hometown newspapers in Dayton, Ohio. Interest in aviation grew rapidly following exhi bitions by the Wrights in the United States and Eu rope in 1908. In 1909, Louis Bleriot flew across the English Channel. In 1911, Cal Rodgers crossed the continent from New York to Pasadena in “84 days and 15 crashes.” Aviation progressed more rapidly in Germany, France and England than in the United States, par ticularly under the stimulus of World War I. A huge aircraft building program was inaugurated after the United States entered the war. Despite expenditures of hundreds of millions of dollars, however, no U. S. built aircraft was used in combat. After the armistice of November 1918 the Govern ment abruptly canceled its orders for aircraft. But the nation then possessed a large number of newly trained pilots, hundreds of two-seat “Jennies” and DH-4s, the newly designed 400-horsepower Liberty engine, and a rudimentary airmail service. Airmail service was inaugurated between Wash ington and New York in May 1918 by the Army— an operation later assumed by the post office. De spite many mishaps, this route system was continued and expanded until 1927 when it was turned over to private contractors, as directed by the Kelly Act of 1925. In retrospect, the development and use of com mercial aircraft during the Twenties appears to have been painfully slow. The most significant break through doubtless was the introduction of the highly efficient and reliable Wright Whirlwind and Pratt and Whitney radial engines. The first Whirlwind, rated at only 200 horsepower, was the ancestor of the power plants of the great majority of military and commer cial aircraft built in the United States until the jet age. The largest and latest models developed over 3,000 horsepower. Charles Lindbergh’s New York to Paris flight in May 1927 generated vast popular interest. This flight proved nothing except the skill and daring of the young pilot and the worth of his plane and its en gine. The Atlantic had been crossed by aircraft as early as 1919 and a nonstop coast-to-coast flight had been accomplished by Army pilots in 1923. Never theless, aviation enthusiasm attributable to the flight resulted in a sharp surge in prices of aviation com mon stocks. Suddenly, an abundance of investment funds was available for an aviation industry that had been starved for capital ever since World War I. The re- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 13 suit was an orgy of financial manipulation and the creation of complicated holding company structures encompassing airlines, equipment manufacturing and even airfields. But a broad market for aircraft and airline service was lacking. Consequently, aviation shares subsequently declined even more than the overall market averages in the 1929-32 crash. Ford and Fokker trimotor aircraft were intro- A ircraft in service and on o rd e r fo r U. S. scheduled airlines O c to b e r 1963 1964 1, 1965 305 197 164 150 204 202 197 197 24 104 75 80 87 585 613 474 441 434 1939 1949 1959 147 449 112 P isto n tw o e n g in e D C -3 C o n v a ir M a rtin T o ta l 147 P isto n f o u r e n g in e D C -4 230 73 14 15 6 D C -6 109 325 217 203 189 D C -7 220 164 121 88 79 104 40 41 34 137 1 11 107 72 418 859 546 487 389 C o n s te lla tio n S up e r C o n s te lla tio n T o ta l duced in 1926. Altogether about 350 of these air craft-seating 10 to 14 persons, cruising at about 120 miles per hour and costing about 60,000 dol lars each—were produced in this country from 192631. The Ford Motor Company joined forces in 1925 with W. B. Stout, pioneer builder of all-metal air craft. Later General Motors Corporation arranged with Anthony Fokker—the Flying Dutchman who was responsible for Germany’s best fight ers during World War I—to build commercial models in the United States. Fokker construc tion continued the use of tubular steel fuse lages in combination with cantilever wings of O n o rd e r wooden spars and plywood covering used in O c to b e r the wartime fighters. 1, 1965 Both Ford and General Motors disposed of their aircraft manufacturing interests in the 0 early Thirties. GM’s departure from the field 0 0 may have been related to the crash of a U. S. 0 built Fokker in 1931 that caused the death of Knute Rockne—the famous Notre Dame 0 football coach. The publicity that followed 0 may have slowed the development of com 0 mercial aviation, but it hastened the intro 0 duction of improved, all-metal airliners that 0 entered service in 1933 and 1934. 0 T u rb o p ro p tw o e n g in e C o n v a ir 5 8 0 - 6 0 0 1 4 16 * F -2 7 a nd F H -2 2 7 34 50 54 54 28 35 50 58 70 28 0 T ota l T u rb o p ro p fo u r e n g in e Viscount 82 60 59 59 Electro 96 117 117 117 0 178 177 176 176 0 T ota l T u rb o je t t w o e n g in e C a ra v e lle 20 Boeing 7 2 7 * * 20 88 20 0 1 44 187 Boeing 7 3 7 60 BAC-1 1 1 13 42 122 D C -9 20 108 177 41 1 133 157 183 100 104 112 119 10 65 67 66 0 18 104 114 125 25 84 406 450 493 135 T ota l T u rb o je t fo u r e n g in e 66 Boeing 7 0 7 Boeing 7 2 0 C o n v a ir 8 8 0 - 9 9 0 D C -8 T ota l O th e r 200 69 102 139 114 127 22 T o ta l 347 1 ,0 72 1,871 1 ,8 12 1 ,8 3 4 1 ,8 6 6 596 * S ix ty conversions from piston engined a irc ra ft. * * Three engines. SOURCE: A ir T ransport Association. 14 Annual Report, 1965 M odern a irlin e rs em erg e Airmail payments to private contractors at first were made on the basis of weight carried. “Flying mail trucks”—specialized single-en gined aircraft—were developed in the middle and late Twenties with space for two or more passengers. Mail had priority, however, and passengers were sometimes put off at ter minals when a full load of mail awaited trans port. Numerous small operators carried air mail under contract on designated routes be tween major cities. Four such air “transport” companies were merged in 1929 to form the nucleus of the present United Air Lines system. But for the most part little progress was made in develop ing a coordinated network of airline systems. In 1930 the Watres Act gave the Post master General power to negotiate mail pay ments on available space-mile rather than on the basis of pounds actually carried. The intention was to motivate the airlines to acquire large, multi-engined planes and de velop passenger traffic. The Postmaster Gen eral, moreover, was given wide discretion in Principal aircra ft used by U. S. airlin es M a n y p la n e types have been su b sta n tia lly m od ified subsequent to in tro du ctio n. Changes include increased size and pow er an d adjustm ents o f ran ge and seating density to specific tra v e l markets. Boeing 40: Entered U.S. service, 1927; m o d ifie d , 1928; 4 passengers; cruising speed, 110 m ph; gross w e ig h t, 3 tons; ve ry short range Boeing 80: 1928, '2 9 ; 12-14 pass.; 115-120 m ph; 9 tons; ve ry short range DC-3: 1936; 21-28 pass.; 170-185 m ph; 13 tons; short range DC-2 (sim ila r to DC-3, b u t sm aller): 1934; 14 pass.; 175 m ph; 10 tons; short range DC-4: 1945; 40-68 pass.; 220-240 m ph; 37 tons; medium range DC-6 series: 1947, '5 1 ; 52-74 pass.; 300-315 m ph; 50 tons; m e d iu m /lo n g range Lockheed C o n s te lla tio n : 1946; 44-64 pass.; 300 m ph; 53 tons; m e d iu m /lo n g range Super C o n s te lla tio n (sim ila r, b u t la rg e r): 1951, '5 7 ; 63-99 pass.; 350 m ph; 78 tons; m e d iu m /lo n g ra ng e awarding contracts and designating routes. As a re sult, he was able to encourage and even force consoli dations. This led to the development of the systems of American, TWA (originally TAT) and Eastern, which together with United, have long constituted domestic commercial aviation’s “Big Four.” Pan American meanwhile, became the Government’s “chosen instru ment” to provide air transportation to Latin America, and later to Europe and Asia, in flying boats. Ford and Fokker trimotors were joined by Boeing trimotors and two-engined Curtis Condors in 1929 and 1930. These aircraft were all reasonably safe and reliable but slow, had limited capacity (10 to 14 passengers) and had some difficulty crossing moun tain barriers. Most routes could not be operated without Federal subsidy in the form of airmail pay ments. Better aircraft, therefore, were a necessity. With the withdrawal of the large auto firms from Equipment operated by m a jor U. S. airlines, O cto b e r 1, 1965 Am erican C ontinental B ra n iff Delta Eastern 19 20 N ation a l N ortheast N orthwest TW A United W e stern Pan Am. P isto n 16 C o n v a ir 13 D C -4 D C -6 36 11 D C -7 10 5 1 11 17 77 14 19 C o n s te lla tio n 5 5 10 19 10 40 37 Jet a n d tu rb o p ro p V iscount 11 E lectra 24 45 9 39 17 12 16 20 C a ra v e lle 35 27 B -7 2 7 9 9 21 12 65 43 B -7 3 7 9 B A C -1 1 1 D C -9 B -7 0 7 34 4 7 B -7 2 0 22 6 6 C V -8 8 0 , 9 9 0 19 15 16 D C -8 T o ta l* 172 A lle gheny 60 Bonanza 26 29 4 16 17 13 85 177 39 C en tra l Frontie r Lake C en tra l 14 10 16 60 16 18 5 35 114 26 49 27 153 58 M ohaw k N orth C entral O z a rk 19 23 27 26 Pacific 286 Piedmont Southern 17 TransTexas W e st Coast 18 9 P isto n D C -3 C o n v a ir 21 M a rtin 13 8 8 2 14 25 13 9 26 7 9 8 43 18 34 24 Jet a n d tu rb o p ro p 14 F -2 7 C o n v a ir 5 8 0 - 6 0 0 3 1 12 23 22 4 B A C -1 1 1 T o ta l 9 37 14 24 33 45 38 43 18 * F ifte e n miscellaneous a irc ra ft included in totals. N ote: A ll trunk lines have siza b le o rde rs outstanding fo r je t a irc ra ft, e sp e cia lly shorter-haul types. M ost lo ca l service lines a re in the midst o f equ ipm e n t transitions. For e xa m p le , N orth C e n tra l is buying DC-9s; O z a rk plans to re p la c e its entire present fle e t w ith FH -227s and DC-9s; Lake C e n tra l is re p la c in g DC-3s w ith N o rd 262s. SOURCE: A ir Tra n spo rt Association. 16 Annual Report, 1965 C o n v a ir 240 , 340 , 440 : 1948, '5 6 ; 44-56 pass.; 270-290 m ph; 25 tons; short ra ng e M a rtin 202, 404 (sim ila r to C o n va ir): 1947, '5 1 ; 4 40-44 pass.; 270-280 mph; 23 tons; short range Boeing 707 series: 1958 to date ; 121-199 pass.; 600 m ph; 130-168 tons; long range B oeing 7 20 (sim ila r, b u t sm aller): 1960; 104-122 pass.; 600 mph; 118 tons; medium ra ng e Lockheed Electro 1-188 (tu rb o p ro p ): 1959, '6 1 ; 66-91 pass.; 4 00 m ph; 57 tons; medium range DC-8 series: 1959 to d a te ; 112-250 pass.; 600 m ph; 137-169 tons; long range aircraft production, the lead passed to relatively small firms that specialized in the field. These were Boeing, Douglas, Lockheed and, later, Martin and Consolidated. Rapid growth of these firms was made possible largely by financing through retained earn ings and progress payments made by equipment buy ers. Each firm built both commercial and military types and each played a vital role in meeting the na tion’s World War II needs. The first truly modern aircraft, introduced in 1933, was the Boeing 247—a two-engined, all-metal, lowwing monoplane with retractable landing gear—ca pable of cruising at 155 miles per hour and maintain ing level flight on one engine. Despite these ad vances, the 247 (predecessor of the four-engined B-17 Flying Fortress) was outclassed the following year by the Douglas DC-2. In general, the DC-2 was similar to the 247 but was larger, faster and capable of longer flights. An improved Douglas aircraft, the famous DC-3, appeared in 1936. It quickly became standard on the major airlines, which had acquired over 200 by Pearl Harbor. During World War II about 10,000 DC-3s, designated C-47s by the Army Air Force, were built. Hundreds of these planes remain in ser vice throughout the world at the present time. Some of the basic facts of airline economics are epitomized in the story of the DC-3. First, equipment accounts for a very large share of the carrier’s physi cal assets. Second, superior equipment serving a com petitive route immediately places operators of exist ing aircraft at a grave disadvantage. Third, larger aircraft offer lower operating costs per seat-mile, and hence greater profits, assuming a sufficient volume O perating costs are much low er fo r jet a irc ra ft cents per ton mile SOURCE: Federal A v ia tio n Agency. 18 Annual Report, 1965 of potential traffic. Fourth, barring an accident, air craft are virtually immortal when properly main tained. Airframes are fabricated from aluminum, which does not rust or deteriorate in normal use. Engines, instruments and other special equipment can be re placed or renovated. Maintenance is topnotch, as it must be if the airlines are to operate safely and efficiently. As a result, aircraft normally are sold or withdrawn from service only as a result of obso lescence—the inability to compete with improved, lower-cost types. Toward the end of the Thirties, the major airlines were cooperating with Boeing and Douglas in the development of four-engined aircraft. The principal result was the Douglas DC-4, which would have en tered domestic airline service in 1942. The military preempted the first deliveries of these aircraft, how ever, and large-scale production (as C-54s) was or dered for the worldwide transport system necessitated by the war. DC-4s and DC-3s built for the military were con verted to civilian use after 1945 and carried the bulk of a rapidly rising air traffic while the industry awaited volume production of the postwar airliners— four-engined Lockheed Constellations, and Douglas DC-6s, Boeing Stratocruisers and the two-engined Convairs and Martins. These new aircraft had cruis ing speeds approaching 300 miles per hour compared with 120 for the trimotors, 185 for the DC-3s and 240 for the DC-4s. Seating capacity was raised to 50 or more, and cabins were pressurized and air conditioned. (The DC-7, cruising at 350 miles per hour, was introduced in 1953.) Fleets of postwar piston aircraft placed the air lines in a posture that made profitable operations possible for the trunks without the crutch of Federal airmail subsidies. The situation appeared to have stabilized. But, even then, many industry executives were looking ahead to a new era—the age of the jets. Jet airliners cost 3 million dollars or more and fly at 600 miles an hour at altitudes in excess of 30,000 feet. Nevertheless, they can be operated at a seatmile cost well below that of fully depreciated, fourengined piston planes. The advantages of the jets are principally in their providing more seat-miles per hour, the simplicity and ease of maintenance of their engines and strong customer appeal. U. S. built jets have set the standard for the world and are used by many foreign airlines. A similar equipment transition was accomplished earlier in the railroad industry. The last steam loco motives were retired from domestic service a decade Sud SE-210 C a ra v e lle (French): 1961; 64 pass.; 5 00 m ph; 45 tons; m edium range Convair 900: I9 6 0 , '6 2 ; 84-121 pass.; 600 m ph; 97-120 tons; m e d iu m /lo n g ra ng e Convair 880 (w ith o u t w in g pods) C o n v a ir 580, 600 (tu rb o p ro p conversion o f piston C onvairs): 1964 to d a te ; 44-52 pass.; 310-350 m ph; 28 tons; short range B oeing 727 series (three jets): 1964 to date : 91-170 pass.; 600 m ph; 81-85 tons; m edium ra ng e BAC-111 (B ritish): 1965 to d ate : 63-79 pass.; 500 m ph; 39-44 tons; short ra ng e DC-9 series: 1965 to d a te ; 56-115 pass.; 5 50 m ph; 39-45 tons; short ra ng e edly superior to the piston engine, could not measure up to the performance of the jets on longer trips. ago because they could not compete with the diesels. Most of these engines were in excellent condition and could have been used for many additional years. But costs of operating newly purchased diesels, in cluding the full burden of depreciation, were such that it was profitable to scrap even the newest steam locomotives. If the pure jets had not become available in the late Fifties, piston-powered planes would have been su perseded in large numbers by turbine-powered pro peller aircraft—the turboprops or propjets. Vickers Viscounts, produced in Great Britain, were intro duced into U. S. service in 1955 by Capital Airlines. Their higher speed and reduced noise and vibration immediately won traffic from competing piston air craft. The Lockheed Electra, a U. S. built turboprop capable of cruising at 400 miles per hour, entered service in 1959. Fairchild Hiller turboprops (originally a Fokker design) are used by a number of local service lines. A similar smaller plane—the French-built Nord 262 —currently is being introduced by Lake Central, and a number of local service lines are converting pistonengined Convairs to turboprops. Nevertheless, the turboprop was largely leapfrogged by the U. S. air lines, because these power plants, although mark A d e fe n se -re late d in du stry Legislation relating to the airline industry always has been influenced to a substantial degree by military preparedness considerations. The Federal Aviation Act of 1958 repeats language of the Civil Aeronau tics Act of 1938 in proclaiming the Government’s purpose as that of encouraging and developing an air transportation system adapted to the needs of commerce, the postal service and the national de fense. After Pearl Harbor, 221 of the airlines’ fleet of 390 aircraft were taken over by the military forces. The remaining units were operated at virtual capacity under a formal system of priorities that gave prefer ence to travelers on urgent business related to the war. In addition, airline personnel and planes flew emergency missions in the United States and to the principal theaters of war to transfer men and mate rials. The airlines also helped to train military airmen and operated facilities to repair and modernize equipment. Aircraft originally developed for com mercial airlines were built and used in large numbers for military transport by the Air Transport Com- A irc ra ft are stripp e d dow n a nd re b u ilt lie ovei pi ■ U p .m * . U P ., * 3.1^-225 * T1—— * 4 2$:JS? *• mand and the Naval Air Transport Service. The airlines aided the Berlin airlift of 1948, mili tary operations in Korea and, currently, are playing a role in supplying Vietnam. The Military Air Trans port Service (MATS) was formed in 1948 by a union of the two services previously operated by the Air Force and the Navy. Since the mid-Fifties, MATS has been backed up by the Civilian Reserve Air Fleet, a designated group of first-line aircraft in regular service with the major airlines that are available to the Government on short notice together with ex perienced crews. MATS, renamed the Military Airlift Command on January 1, 1966, operates hundreds of planes that carry personnel and material on regular routes and schedules for the armed forces throughout the world. Since 1960, the U. S. Department of Defense has con tracted with the private airlines for military haulage, following a policy of leaving the “hard core” to MATS. The volume of these contracts is increasing but MATS remains “the world’s largest airline.” Since World War II, some aircraft types developed by the military have been adapted for civilian use. Boeing Stratocruisers of the late Forties and early Fifties were based on the wartime B-29. Similarly, years of experience in building and operating mili tary jet aircraft, particularly the Boeing B-47 and B-52, preceded the first commercial jet orders in 1955. The airlines also have made extensive use of radar and other navigational and landing aids pioneered by the military. It is unlikely that the airlines would be seriously considering the purchase of supersonic transports (SST) were it not for the knowledge and experience gained through work on such military de signs as the B-58, B-70 and A -ll. A ir tra v e l sa fe ty Some potential air travelers are deterred by con cern about the safety of this means of transport. Crashes are always front page news, and incidents involving some element of risk often are widely pub licized even when no fatalities or injuries occur. Statistics provide ample evidence that the chances of any given commercial airline flight ending in di saster are extremely remote. In 1941, after a careful review of the pertinent data, major life insurance companies eliminated from their regular policies spe cial clauses relating to air travel on commercial air lines. Since that time, safety records have improved further. The usual method of comparing the safety of var ious means of transportation is to use fatalities per O ffic e w o rk a lo ft— equ ipm e n t is p rovid ed on some flig h ts 100 million passenger miles. Each year since 1951 this rate for scheduled airlines has been less than one. In the 10-year period, 1954-63, the fatality rate averaged 0.41 for the airlines compared with 0.12 for railroads, 0.16 for intercity buses and 2.43 for private autos. On a mileage basis, therefore, it ap pears that an intercity trip in a car is six times as dangerous on the average as a similar trip by plane. Commercial airlines perform almost 4 million de partures and landings each year. On the experience of recent years, the chance of a fatal accident during any one trip is about one in a half million. A theoret ical “average passenger” might make daily round trips for several centuries before becoming involved in a fatal accident. Several of the local service airlines have never had a fatality in hundreds of millions of passenger miles. This is why trip insurance can be sold so cheaply even though underwriters must ab sorb selling and administration costs. Despite evidence of a high degree of safety in air travel, it is clear that some risk exists whenever any vehicle is in motion. The airlines guard against the special hazards of air transportation by careful selec tion and training of personnel, painstaking mainte nance and use of the latest navigational aids and safety devices. Concern for each of these factors is necessary, although expensive. The airlines and their suppliers perfected two-way radios, de-icers, controllable-pitch propellers, flaps and air brakes during the Thirties; also the radio beam was substituted for lighted beacons to guide traffic on the airways. Strides were made in weather Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 21 forecasting and Instrument Landing Systems (I.L.S.) were introduced in the early postwar period. In the mid-Fifties, many aircraft were equipped with air borne radar to warn of storm centers ahead. Radios and altimeters have been continually improved and backed up by one or more alternative systems. A irlin e m eteorologists o p e ra te w ea th e r analysis stations a t key cities a lo n g th e ir routes Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) and Federal Avia tion Agency (FA A ). Since the mid-Twenties these agencies and their predecessors have had the respon sibility of certificating aircraft and flight personnel, as well as the airlines as operating organizations. These certificates can be withdrawn whenever evi dence arises of defects or negligence. The FAA promulgates and enforces air safety rules and is responsible for navigational aids on the airways, landing aids at the airports and control of aircraft movements from takeoff to touchdown. The CAB carefully investigates accidents to ascertain a “probable cause,” so that similar difficulties may be avoided thereafter. Deterrents to a ir tra v e l Each d a y a irlin e executives review th e ir system's o p e ra tin g p icture Improved engines have played a large role in ad vancing air safety. The best piston engines are cer tified to fly 3,000 hours between overhauls. For the simpler jets and turboprops with rotary motion rather than the reciprocating action of pistons, this period has more than doubled. The chance of any properly maintained engine, piston or turbine failing in flight is very small. Since engines are independent of one another, the statistical possibility of two failing on the same trip is negligible. Airlines have their own high safety standards and are constantly on the alert to new ideas and concepts. They also are under the safety supervision of the 22 Annual Report, 1965 Factors other than safety tend to deter expansion of air travel. Among these are the time spent going to and from large city airports, occasional postpone ments and cancellations of flights and delays some times encountered in baggage handling. Modern airports typically are located far from downtown business districts. Principal runways com monly exceed two miles in length and large acreages are required for hangars, terminal buildings, auto parking and other facilities. In addition, outlying lo cations are desirable so that airports are beyond proximity to tall structures and densely populated urban areas. Travel time to airports has been reduced by the expansion of expressway systems. Helicopter services carry passengers to and from airports in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco. Cancellations of flights have been reduced to about 1 per cent of the total for major lines, mainly be cause of improved reliability of equipment and instru ments, but also because of such factors as better weather information and faster snow removal. Air lines have attempted to reduce operating delays and some report that 85 per cent of all flights now ar rive at their destinations on time or within 15 min utes. As a result of these efforts, much of the seasonal tendency for air traffic to decline in the winter months has been eliminated. Better airport lighting, improved instruments and careful training of aircrews and FAA air traffic con trollers have steadily reduced the “landing minimums” at most terminals. At the largest, most mod ern airports landings of properly equipped aircraft are permitted when visibility is restricted to a ceiling of 200 feet and one-half mile ahead. Improved sys tems, now being introduced, will reduce these limits to 100 feet and one-quarter mile. Finally, experi- ments are under way on systems that are expected to make possible the ultimate achievement of zero-zero landings in which the approach and touchdown are guided and controlled entirely by instruments. The more prosaic problem of baggage handling also is yielding to solution. At some airports passen gers are relieved of their baggage at curbside, instead of having to carry it into the building. Some airlines, as a result of new equipment and techniques, are mak ing most baggage available to passengers as soon as they can reach the point of delivery. W ho flie s w h ere To carry passengers or property interstate on a scheduled basis, an airline must obtain a certificate of “public convenience and necessity” from the CAB for each route (except for the air taxi exemption for aircraft of under 12,500 pounds). In the late Twen ties and early Thirties, regular passenger service was provided by those lines that had been awarded con tracts to carry airmail. The Civil Aeronautics Act of 1938 provided for certification of permanent routes and for subsidy payments, where necessary, to main tain adequate service on these routes. At present there are 24 certificated domestic passen ger-cargo lines and three all-cargo lines. Eleven of Stewardesses— both decorative and h e lp fu l M u ltim illio n d o lla r com puter systems o f m ajor airlin es confirm reservations in seconds the domestic route carriers are known as the trunk lines, while 13 are designated local service lines. The trunks are the descendants, directly or indirectly, of the air carriers that operated the “grandfather routes” certificated on a permanent basis in 1938 on the strength of satisfactory previous performance on mail contracts. The local service carriers, often called feeder lines, were certificated in the early postwar years as sec ond level airlines to serve smaller localities and con nect these with major airports served by the trunk lines. Actually, the great bulk of the passengers using local lines complete their journeys on these routes and are not “fed” to the trunks. In only a few instances do the operations of local service lines overlap one another. In general, each is the sole supplier of feeder, or local services, with in a given geographical area. Although the local ser vice lines have greatly increased their route mileage and traffic volume, all are smaller than any of the trunks. To some extent, the local carriers compete with the trunk lines, sharing with them numerous city-pair travel markets. Nevertheless, the local lines usually are at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis their trunk line rivals, owing to the intermediate stops required and their inability in most instances to match the equipment that the trunks use. As airline traffic increased in the late Thirties, the CAB moved to encourage competition by certificating two, three and even more carriers to serve individual routes having high traffic densities. When more than Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 23 one airline offers service over a given route—for ex ample, Chicago to Washington or to New York—ri valry can become intense. Although fares are regu lated by the CAB, airlines compete on the basis of schedules, speed and comfort of equipment, classes of service, efficient handling of reservations, consistency of on-time performance, food, entertainment, speed of baggage handling and the charm and beauty of stew ardesses. Each line advertises extensively, using tele vision, radio, large newspaper ads and billboards to exploit its services as well as the attractions of the area it serves. Selected major routes of the trunk lines are shown on the accompanying table. United, American and TWA have extensive nationwide systems. Operations of the other trunks are more or less regional in na ture, although Delta, Northwest and National have coast-to-coast routes. Areas of operations of most local service lines are indicated roughly by their names. Among these are Allegheny, Mohawk, Piedmont, Southern and Pacific. Principal local carriers in the Midwest are North Cen tral (Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota), Ozark (Iowa, Illinois and Missouri) and Lake Central (In diana, Michigan and Ohio). Most of the domestic trunks and a few of the local service lines also operate international schedules, mainly to Canada, Mexico and Central America but also to Europe and Africa (TW A), the Far East (Northwest and TWA) and South America (Delta and Braniff). Pan American operates routes that ex tend around the globe but not within the 48 states. Route com petition The CAB is regularly confronted with applications by airlines for certificates of “public convenience and necessity” to operate additional routes, or for perma nent certifications of routes granted on a temporary The ch am p ion — a DC-3 b u ilt in 1939; 13 years w ith a tru n k lin e ; then a local; re cen tly converted to executive use; 9 years o f fly in g tim e; 260 m illion passenger miles 24 Annual Report, 1965 Trunk line nonstop jet and tu rb o p ro p services over 15 m ajor intercity routes, Septem ber 1965 U nited A m erican TW A Eastern O thers N e w Y o rk a n d C h ica g o X Boston NW X X X X X N A , NE X BN, N A X N A , NE W a s h in g to n X X X Los A n g e le s X X X San Francisco X X X M ia m i C h ica g o a n d Los A n g e le s X X X San Francisco X X X W a sh in g to n X X X M ia m i CO X DL, N W X NA X NE W a s h in g to n a n d Los A n g e le s X X X M ia m i San Francisco X Boston X X Los A n g e le s a n d San F rancisco* X X WA *N o n sto p je t service also is p ro v id e d b y Pacific Southwest A ir Lines, a n o n -c e rtific a te d in tra s ta te c a rrie r. Key: BN— B ra n iff, C O — C ontin en ta l, DL— D elta , N A — N a tio n a l, NE— N orthe a st, N W — N orthw est, W A — W estern. SOURCE: O ffic ia l A irline Guide (S eptem ber 1 9 6 5 ). basis. Such certificates resemble franchises and once obtained comprise—along with trained personnel—the principal nonphysical assets of the airlines. Certificates covering densely traveled long hauls are eagerly sought, while authorization of additional competition is often opposed vigorously by airlines already operating these routes. Valuable route cer tificates have been allotted to certain financially weak carriers in order to maintain them as going concerns. Decisions of the CAB sometimes have been appealed to the Federal courts. Once certificated for a given route, an airline usu ally is required to provide a minimal service, even if operations prove to be unprofitable. The CAB now employs a “use it or lose it” formula in connection with its administration of subsidies to determine whether a given point generates sufficient traffic to continue receiving service. In recent years the trunks have voluntarily given up various routes serving smaller centers to the subsidized local service lines. Since its formation in 1938, the CAB has allowed no new entry into the ranks of the trunk carriers. In fact, the number of these airlines has been reduced by mergers from 18 in 1938 to 11 at the present time. Vast changes have taken place in the route systems of the individual carriers notwithstanding the “freeze” on the number of trunk lines. Once useful distinctions between the big three or four and the others have lost much of their meaning. Fifteen of the most important city-pair routes are served by at least two trunk lines providing nonstop jet or turboprop flights. Most commonly these mar kets are served by three carriers, but some have as many as five or six. The three largest carriers play major roles in these markets. United, American and TWA are rivals on seven of the 15 routes. Generally, the greater the number of suppliers of a service, the more determined any one of them will be to innovate, offer improvements in quality or low er prices. It is widely thought, therefore, that the in terests of consumers will be served best in unregu lated industries when the number of firms on the supply side is “large.” Whether this is the case also in regulated industries is a debated issue. In many industries, a firm’s expansion into a new market area entails a considerable capital investment Total transport revenues o f U. S. scheduled airlines, ye a r ended June 30, 1965 Trunk lines Domestic In te rn a tio n a l and te rrito ria l Total Local service Domestic (m illion dollars) A m e rica n 563 9 572 A lle g h e n y 24 Eastern 406 58 464 Bonanza 11 TW A 446 169 615 C e n tra l 7 U nited 661 51 712 Frontier 16 B ra n iff 101 15 116 Lake C e n tra l C o n tin e n ta l 99 99 9 M ohawk 27 D e lta 253 257 N orth C e n tra l 24 N a tio n a l 148 1 48 O z a rk 17 N o rth e a s t 42 42 P acific 10 N o rth w e s t 153 79 232 Piedm ont 20 W e s te rn 108 10 118 Pan A m e ric a n * *A s id e from 4 605 605 Southern 13 Trans-Texas 15 W e s t C oast 9 Pan A m erican, the la rg e st in te rn a tio n a l a irlin e was T ra n s-C a rib b e a n w ith revenues o f 2 6 million dollars. Flying T iger was the la rg e st a ll-ca rg o line w ith revenues o f 53 m illion d olla rs. BOAC and A ir France, the tw o la rg e st fo re ig n -ow n ed free w o rld a irlin e s , are a p p ro x im a te ly the size o f D elta. SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics B oard. and commitment of operating expenditures. This is especially true of the railroads, where extension of service into a new territory calls for substantial out lays for land, grading, station structures and trackwork as well as increased operating costs. Expansion of an airline’s route network is relatively less costly than for a railroad, particularly because the airway is already there to be used. Setting up op erations at new points, however, may require the acquisition of terminal space and equipment servic ing facilities, the hiring of ground personnel and sales promotion in a new market. Where, however, a car rier already operates at two cities but not between, connecting service can be provided readily, assuming sufficient equipment and qualified personnel are available. Entry of an airline into a market may be felt keenly by the lines already operating. Existing op erators may maintain schedule frequency or even in crease it to retain their market shares, with adverse effects on load factors and earnings. At any time, the domestic airline market as a whole is delicately balanced. A marked change made in any one segment of the market is likely to require subtle compensating adjustments elsewhere if the in terests of equity and efficiency are to be adequately served. Clearly, the responsibility of the CAB in con nection with route awards is weighty and the prob lems involved in making suitable assignments of op erating rights is highly involved. The CAB has followed a policy of increasing com petition on routes where the volume of traffic was sufficient to permit additional carriers to operate profitably. Some students of the airline industry have advocated freedom of entry to new markets for all qualified operators. Proponents of the present sys tem fear that a more liberal policy would lead to ex cess capacity and ruinous competition. Mergers of domestic airlines also must be approved by the CAB. In some cases, mergers have been per mitted when financial difficulties have threatened the continuation of operations. Since 1950, five trunk lines and six local service lines have merged and ceased to exist as independent carriers. The most re cent and most important of the postwar mergers was the 1961 consolidation of Capital and United. As a result, United became the largest domestic airline, surpassing American. During the early Sixties, mergers of Pan American and TWA, and American and Eastern were proposed, but the CAB did not give its approval. Since then, these lines have followed independent expansion policies and apparently have lost interest in the mergers. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 25 A ir term in als Unlike the railroads, the airlines do not build and maintain their rights-of-way and terminals. (Court actions have determined that the air itself is not under control of property owners.) The FAA maintains the “airways” on which commercial airliners (and other aircraft) are kept on course through radio beams, radar and other aids. In addition, airports have bene fited from a variety of Federal and local government aids. Most civilian airports are owned and operated by cities, counties or special authorities. Maintenance of a suitable airport has been a matter of local pride for many communities and many have utilized general obligation bonds to provide facilities, in some cases in excess of their needs. Various Federal relief agencies, especially the WPA, invested about 400 million dollars in airports during the Thirties. A much larger outlay was made during World War II in the construction of airports that subsequently were turned over to municipalities for civilian use. Since the Federal Airport Act of 1946, the Government has made more than 700 million dol lars available to local public airport agencies on a dollar matching basis to aid in the development and improvement of airport facilities. The largest airports, such as Chicago’s O’Hare Field (“the World’s Bus iest” ) and New York’s Kennedy International Air port, cover thousands of acres and represent invest ments of hundreds of millions of dollars. Airports obtain revenues from aircraft landing or takeoff fees (usually assessed by weight), rentals of Rise in a v a ila b le seats has outpaced passenger tra ffic gains billion seat miles SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics Board. 26 Annual Report, 1965 M ilw a u ke e's M itche ll Field— extension o f je t ru nw a y re q u ire d a tunnel fo r h ig h w a y tra ffic hangars and other terminal buildings, sales of fuel and payments made by concessionaires of such facil ities as restaurants and parking lots (usually under contracts awarded on competitive bidding). The FAA and the airlines have continuously pressed local authorities to raise standards to permit airports to handle expanding traffic more efficiently and safely. Of course, airport facilities are used by general avia tion (private aircraft other than the commercial air liners) and the military as well as the airlines. The Administrator of the FAA maintains a peri odically revised National Airport Plan. In March 1964 he reported that a 1.1 billion dollar investment was re quired for airport improvements in the period to 1967. Excise ta x e s Until recently, Federal funds devoted to the con struction, maintenance and operation of airports and airways have come from general tax revenues, includ ing, of course, the proceeds of certain taxes upon air transportation. But, these air transportation taxes simply were elements of the elaborate Federal excise system. A tax on passenger travel by air, rail and bus was imposed during World War II partly to finance war expenditures and partly to discourage civilian travel. Legislation enacted in 1962 repealed the 10 per cent passenger travel tax then in force as an excise and re imposed (at half the old rate) a selective levy, now termed a user charge, on air travel only. The tax on air passenger fares currently yields roughly 165 mil lion dollars annually. Collections, which are paid into the Treasury’s general fund, are regarded as a charge for the use of airways and airports financed largely by the Federal Government. Similarly an airline user fee is the 2 cents per gal lon tax on high-test gasoline, although proceeds are earmarked for the highway fund. In the President’s fiscal 1966 Budget message, delivered in 1965, a similar levy on airline jet fuel (high-grade kerosene) was proposed, but no action was taken by Congress during 1965. It is expected that the proposal will be reintroduced, since the user charge principle has gained wide support as an element of the national transportation policy. as many stewardesses are employed as pilots and co pilots, but turnover of these young ladies is much more rapid. The typical stewardess serves less than two years before resigning, usually to get married. The em erg ence of freig h t From the earliest days the airlines have carried ex press and freight shipments, as well as passengers and mail. But until the postwar period, revenues from these operations remained only a small proportion of the total. Pro du ctivity rises About 40 per cent of the operating expenses of the airlines are accounted for by wages and salaries. In 1964 compensation of 190,000 employes exceeded 1.5 billion dollars. Total employment has increased appreciably each year since 1958. Revenue ton miles flown per airline worker has increased steadily in the postwar period as a result of increases in aircraft size, more extensive use of me chanical equipment to handle baggage and cargo, more efficient engines, use of electronic equipment for han dling reservations and improved managerial tech niques. In 1964 the airlines produced 42,000 revenue ton miles per employe compared with 28,000 five years earlier, and only 10,000 in the early postwar years. The average annual compensation per airline em ploye now exceeds 8,000 dollars, well above the aver age for most other industries. About 15 per cent of airline employes are flight personnel—pilots, engineers and stewards and stewardesses. Annual salaries of pilots, numbering 15,000, start at about 12,000 dol lars. Captains of large jets with responsibility for as many as 180 passengers, together with equipment valued at as much as 8 million dollars, may earn 33,000 dollars per year. Airlines always have placed emphasis upon high caliber employes, with adequate intelligence, training, personality and appearance. Public confidence is in fluenced directly by the airline personnel with whom passengers come in contact. An even larger number of persons behind the scenes also play vital roles in maintaining efficient operations. Aside from the pilots, perhaps the most distinctive airline employes are the stewardesses, who serve meals and refreshments and attempt to keep passengers happy and comfortable. The first stewardesses were added to flight crews in 1931 by United, and most other airlines followed suit soon afterward. Almost Im proved e qu ipm e n t speeds b a g g a g e h an d ling Freight and express accounted for less than 3 per cent of total airline revenues before World War II. By 1964, this proportion had more than doubled. It appears that air freight will continue to grow relative to passenger business. In fact, some industry analysts visualize the time when airline freight revenues will rival passenger ticket sales. Large investments are being made by the airlines in freight terminals, han dling equipment and sales promotion. Numerous pilots trained by the Army and Navy acquired one or more war surplus aircraft soon after World War II and attempted to establish profitable air freight operations. In 1949, the CAB certificated four all-cargo lines to operate domestic routes. Mean while, the established passenger lines also began to emphasize air freight to help utilize available capacity more fully. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 27 Most freight is still carried along with passengers or in'aircraft that have been retired from passenger service. Increasingly, however, the airlines are acquir ing jet aircraft such as the Douglas DC-8F that are specifically designed for commercial air cargo use. Some recent orders are for “quick change” aircraft, especially the Boeing 727 QC that can be converted from passenger to cargo service in about 30 minutes, thus permitting passengers to be carried in the day time and freight at night. The jet air freighters can lift as much as 45 tons for medium-range hauls and 40 tons coast to coast. Moreover, cargo moves at 600 miles an hour. (Unlike surface vehicles and propeller aircraft, the jets operate most efficiently at or near top speed.) As a result, a large jet can do three or four times the work of a fourengined piston plane and at half the cost. Charges for air freight have averaged about 20 cents per ton mile in recent years, about seven times as high as railroad charges. Of course, the make-up of traffic of the two carriers varies greatly. On small-lot items the cost relationship is much closer. Some industry analysts visualize average rates on air freight as low as 10 cents per ton mile, compared with 3 cents or so for the rails and 6 to 7 cents for trucks. Air freight offers advantages, other than speed, in reductions in packaging costs and less risk of damage or pilferage. Use of sealed containers that can be inter changed with any surface carrier is likely to become important in the future. Producers of electronic components and other inA specialized a ir fre ig h te r— the C a n a d a ir CL-44 sw in g ta il tu rb o p ro p Surge in a irlin e stock prices reflects im proved profits per cent, 1957-59 =100 SOURCE: S ta n d ard and Poor's. dustrial products with high values relative to weight or bulk use air freight in large volume. In addition, there are significant movements of certain fresh fruits and vegetables—especially straw berries—and style merchandise. A dramatic example of the possibilities inherent in jet freight was the shipment of thousands of calves to Italy during the summer of 1964, not as prize stock but for slaughter. Manufacturers in many cases have been able to reduce inventories and eliminate regional warehouses while improving service to customers through the use of air freight. Increasingly, light manufacturing facil ities are being located within easy trucking distance of major airports. Financing the a irlin e s The fundamental purpose of any private industry is to supply a product or service at a price that will at tract enough customers to assure profitable operations. Buyers of common stocks, and their investment ad visors, are constantly re-evaluating the success of vari ous industries, and more particularly individual firms, in meeting this goal. Since 1962 the average price of airline stocks has risen sharply, but only about in line with improved profits (see chart). Airline shares sell at the relatively low ratios, by today’s standards, of 10 to 14 times current annual earnings because of uncertain prospects for revenues and profits. Stocks of other leading industries com monly sell at 15 to 20 times earnings, and much higher multiples exist for “growth” firms in such industries as electronics and pharmaceuticals. With the introduction of the jets, there were hopes 28 Annual Report, 1965 that the airlines were on the threshold of a substantial rise in profits. Although acquisition and introduction of the new equipment involved expenditures of vast sums of money, individual lines were prepared to make these investments and lenders were ready to help with financing for two main reasons. First, the jets, on paper, appeared to offer lower-cost transportation. Second, past experience indicated that no airline could survive if it did not provide service equivalent to that offered by competitors. Jets proved even more attractive to the public than had been expected. After various introductory prob lems were overcome, moreover, these aircraft were even more economical to operate than had been as sumed in advance planning. However, the period from late 1958 to early 1962, when most of the jets now on hand were acquired, was a time of sluggish growth for the economy. As a result, airline traffic and revenues rose less than had been anticipated. Profits declined and some lines reported deficits. The surge in airline traffic and profits since 1962 reflects the large, sustained upswing in general busi ness activity. Airline traffic, despite a strong growth trend, has been sensitive to changes in economic activity. Few major industries are so concerned with leverage as the airlines. Basically, high leverage means that if a firm does well profit-wise, it is likely to do very well indeed. On the other hand, if operations fall below a certain minimum, deficits can be substantial. Leverage in the airline industry is measured in both operating and financial terms. A substantial propor tion of the expenses of each airline is incurred whether planes fly or not. This is true of depreciation, most ad ministrative and selling expenses, and even, in part, salaries of flight crews. Second, when planes do fly, the proportion of seats and cargo capacity utilized has almost no effect upon direct operating costs, convenTelescopic lo a d in g b rid g es— passengers b o a rd and leave planes w ith o u t g oing outdoors o r using stairs A irline debt la rg e r than equity since 1958 billion d o ll a rs *D a ta fo r 1963-65 are June 30. SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics B oard. tionally measured to include flight crew compensation, fuel and oil, insurance, maintenance and depreciation. Because of these factors, airlines make vigorous efforts to keep aircraft in the air as much as possibleon charter flights as well as scheduled trips. Individual flights are profitable whenever a margin of revenues over direct expenses can be obtained. Over the years the airlines have steadily increased the proportion of each day that aircraft are in flight. Short-haul aircraft currently average 8 or 9 hours of every 24 in the air and large aircraft, used for longer trips, 10 to 12 hours. (These proportions are calcu lated on an annual basis and include periods when planes are out of service for overhaul.) One of the most commonly cited airline operating statistics is the load factor—the proportion of available seat miles or ton miles utilized. For the trunks the passenger load factor has averaged about 55 per cent in recent years. A passenger riding a jet on a densely traveled route at a rush hour, Friday through Monday, may feel that the airlines are operating at or near ca pacity. But aircraft in service are available around the clock and some flights proceed with only a few pas sengers. Attention often is focused on the break-even point— the proportion of available airline seats that must be occupied to pay all operating expenses, including over head. As the break-even load factor is exceeded, rev enue available for payment of interest, income taxes, dividends and re-investment rises sharply. Load factors and break-even points can be calcu Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 29 lated readily for particular types of aircraft and even for individual flights. For piston aircraft break-even points have been reached at load factors of 50 per cent or more. For some large jets on long hauls, the break-even point is said to be less than 40 per cent. Break-even load factors are related to a measure of operating expense that includes certain components of a more or less fixed nature, especially depreciation, insurance, maintenance and overhead. Typically, an individual flight will be profitable if receipts exceed out-of-pocket, or marginal cost, which need not in clude any portion of overhead expenses. Thus, a given schedule or charter flight may be economical to op erate with only a handful of occupied seats or a mod erate cargo of freight if the revenue generated is enough to defray direct salary expense, fuel costs and landing fees. Anything earned over and above these direct expenses represents cash income that would otherwise not be received. While it usually is true that the higher a load factor, the more profitable the op eration, it does not follow that light loads necessarily lose money. Another measure of airline leverage is the operat ing ratio—total operating expenses as a percentage of total operating revenues. Because airline capital in vestment consists mostly of aircraft that generate substantial depreciation charges, airline operating ra tios are comparatively high, averaging only 90 per cent. Such ratios are much higher than those of most railroads, whose investment accounts include not only equipment but also substantial holdings of right-ofway and terminal properties, which have no airline counterpart. Obviously, any factor that raises revenues or reduces expenses will increase operating profits by a similar amount. Financial leverage is reflected in the airline bal ance sheets as in other industries. In the early years, the capital structure of the industry consisted largely of the stockholders’ equity—capital stock and surplus. The bulk of any return to capital, therefore, repre sented return to equity. Since the first wave of the jet acquisitions was completed, 60 per cent or more of the capital structure of the airlines has consisted of long-term debt. Returns to capital now must be di vided between debt and equity. Since interest on debt is fixed by contract, returns to capital in excess of interest charges accrue to the equity interest, thereby providing leverage. Most of the trunk and some of the local service air lines now have convertible debentures (convertible into shares of stock) as part of their capital structures. Increases in market values of shares make it desirable, at some point, for bondholders to exercise their option 30 Annual Report, 1965 M ajor assets and liabilitie s o f all scheduled airlines 1 95 5 1960 June 3 0 , 1965 (miillion dollars) C u rre n t assets 580 929 1 ,3 7 2 86 211 308 675 2,1 91 3 ,2 9 8 17 117 94 1 ,358 3 ,4 4 8 5 ,0 7 2 386 707 1 ,0 4 8 22 149 391 O th e r lia b ilitie s 8 123 56 Lon g-te rm d e b t 274 1 ,5 0 8 2 ,0 7 6 Investments a n d sp e cia l funds O p e ra tin g p ro p e r ty a nd e q u ip m e n t, net O th e r assets T o ta l assets C u rre n t lia b ilitie s D e fe rre d F e d e ra l incom e ta x e s S to ckh o ld e rs' e q u ity T o ta l lia b ilitie s 668 961 1,501 1,358 3 ,4 4 8 5 ,0 7 2 SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics B oard. to convert to stock. This, of course, tends to decrease the debt-to-equity ratio and facilitate new borrowings. Most of the increase in airline equity, aside from re tained profits, has come through the conversion route in the postwar period. Sales of new common stock have been rare. The decline of subsidies Most airlines throughout the world have been subsi dized, at least initially, by their respective govern ments. Commonly, foreign governments own their nation’s principal airline in whole or in part. Some government lines are operated to promote national prestige, despite substantial operating losses. The pol icy of the U.S. Government has been to encourage the growth of private airlines principally by providing navigational aids, controlling entry and operation rights, and direct assistance in financing local airports. Where necessary, subsidies have been paid to supple ment operating revenues—but always with a view to ward the time when each line could stand on its own feet. When the post office flew the mail, and for many years under private contracts, the Government paid more for the service than the total revenue provided by sale of airmail stamps. Clearly, airmail was heavily subsidized under these arrangements. From 1930 until 1953, airmail payments were used to subsidize the broader concept of an air transport industry that would carry passengers, express and freight, as well as mail. Payments for carrying a given volume of mail were based on “need,” and varied greatly among the various airlines. This system was criticized on the grounds that it did not encourage ef forts to upgrade service and promote managerial effi ciency, because such improvements tended to reduce subsidies. The early system of airmail payments was directly responsible for one of the most unfortunate chapters in the history of commercial aviation. Following con gressional investigations starting in 1933, all airmail contracts were cancelled in February 1934 because of charges that these had not been negotiated properly. For over two months the Army Air Corps flew the mail on reduced schedules. Several aircraft and 12 airmen were lost in a series of crashes. In early May 1934, the airmail was returned to private carriers after changes in bidding procedures. Starting in 1953, mail payments have been pre scribed by the CAB (generally after negotiation) on the basis of estimates of the cost of the service, including a fair return and, where necessary, subsidies have been paid openly as public service revenues. The major trunks and the international passenger-cargo carriers have been “off subsidy” since the mid-Fifties. Airline subsidies were less than 85 million dollars in 1964 or about 2 per cent of total revenues. This proportion has been declining gradually in recent years. Local service lines received almost 80 per cent E laborate electronic flig h t sim ulators help to tra in pilots and engineers in procedures A v a rie ty o f specialized g ro u n d equ ipm e n t helps reduce " tu r n a b o u t" tim e fo r big jets of the subsidy paid in 1964 with the rest going to the Alaskan and other territorial lines and the helicopter services. Only the smallest trunk, Northeast, currently receives subsidy payments, mainly because its New England operations resemble those of local lines. Some observers foresee the time, perhaps two or three years hence, when several of the local service lines will be able to operate profitably without subsidy. Newly purchased short-haul jets may do the job for certain locals if sufficient traffic can be generated to exploit the inherent operational economies of these aircraft. Domestic airmail is now hauled at rates of 27 cents a ton mile, well below that on air express and at a small fraction of the post office’s airmail revenue. Mail pay ments, once the main source of income for the airlines, now account for only about 3 per cent of the gross revenue of the domestic operators. For over a decade the post office has experimented with sending some first-class mail by air on a non priority basis at rates comparable to those paid on air freight. As a result, there has been speculation for years that “all up mail,” merging airmail and first class, might be feasible. In November 1965 the Postmaster General stated that plans were being pressed “to provide a new class of priority mail that will be delivered overnight almost everywhere in the country.” This move has been en couraged, in part, by the reduction in schedules of trains that can carry mail expeditiously. The a llo w a b le return Following the long General Passenger Fare Investi gation, the Civil Aeronautics Board determined in 1960 that earnings of 10.5 per cent (after taxes but before interest) on invested capital (defined by for mula but approximately equal to long-term debt and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 31 equity) constituted a fair return for the trunk airlines. The CAB’s rate base amounts to about 70 per cent of the total assets, in contrast to the rate base normally used in utility regulation that approximates total assets. When first announced, the 10.5 per cent rate of re turn seemed academic, because the airlines as a group were barely breaking even. The CAB, however, re cently reasserted its adherence to this guideline, at a time when returns to capital were believed to be at or near the “fair” level. From 1950 through 1955 the return on debt and equity combined for the trunk lines as a group ranged between 11.2 and 14.2 per cent. Thereafter the rate declined, reaching a low of 1.5 per cent in 1961. The rate reached 10.1 per cent in 1964, and there was a further increase to about 12 per cent in 1965. Still higher rates have been projected for 1966. Many problems arise concerning the usefulness and precision of the fair return concept in the airline in dustry. First, there are controversies concerning the definitions of both return to capital and the rate base. Agreement is lacking on the treatment of such impor tant factors of income determination as the investment tax credit, the selection of useful lives and residual val ues of equipment for purposes of depreciation and the allocation of costs between domestic and international operations. No general agreement exists on the number of years Returns to ca p ita l o f a ll scheduled airlines Total Interest Dividends Rate o f return R etained returns to O n e q u ity On earnings c a p i t a l1 and d e b t equ ity (million dollars) (per cent) 1955 11 26 50 87 10.0 12.1 1956 15 31 53 99 8.9 1 1.1 1957 24 35 6 65 5.2 5 .5 1958 34 35 16 85 5 .5 5 .9 1959 46 42 22 110 6 .2 7 .8 1960 66 37 -21 82 3.2 1961 94 35 -5 9 70 2.1 1.0 -3 .9 1962 111 34 18 163 5 .7 5 .5 1963* 112 38 26 176 6.2 6.7 1964* 104 50 102 256 8 .5 13.0 1965* 106 51 239 396 12.0 21.1 'B e fo re interest but a fte r income taxes. * Y e a r ended June 3 0 . SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics B oard. 32 Annual Report, 1965 Transportation fares have risen much less than prices o f other services cents per passenger mile 1957-59 =100 * Excludes occupancy ch arg e fo r first-class tra v e l. SOURCE: Inte rsta te Commerce Commission a nd Bureau o f Labor Statistics. to be averaged in determining whether returns to cap ital meet the standard. On the rate base, there are dif ferences of opinion concerning the inclusion or exclu sion of such items as leaseholds and advance payments on new aircraft. Even if difficulties relating to rate base, fair return and income determination are resolved, the question remains of what to do about it. Earnings of electric utilities usually can be raised or lowered by adjusting charges. But while these utilities are virtual monop olists in their market areas, and elasticity of demand is relatively low in the short run, the airlines invari ably have competition from other modes of transport and often from other airlines. As the CAB stated in 1960, it is “faced with the facts that a large part of the domestic route structure is served by two or more car riers in competition and that fares must be uniform between them, notwithstanding that one carrier’s rev enue need may be less than another’s.” Normally, the CAB exercises its jurisdiction over fares and charges through approval or disapproval of proposed changes filed by individual lines. Because of higher returns on invested capital since 1963, the CAB has been pressing for lower passenger fares. In 1965 a number of cuts were made in payments for mail and other Government contract work, baggage allowances were raised and proposed surcharges on new jet services were rejected. (Existing jet surcharges were not disturbed.) Recent statements of CAB personnel have indi cated that the Board would like to see additional fare cuts in the form of still more attractive group and fam ily plans, experiments with lower fares at off-peak hours and provision of spartan service with fewer amenities than those now customarily offered on coach service. Agreement is lacking on the impact of lower fares and charges on profits, because of uncertainties con cerning the demand elasticity for airline service. Ap preciable fare cuts doubtless would help to fill empty seats, but what would be the net effect upon total rev enues and earnings? Over the years, fares usually have been reduced when volume of traffic and profits were rising rapidly, and increases have been requested and approved in years such as 1958, 1960 and 1962 when traffic growth was less than anticipated and earnings were under pressure. Implementation of the fair return concept in the airline industry requires rather a different approach than that used in most utility regulation. Partly this is because of still uncertain growth prospects and the vast changes that have occurred in airline equipment and operations and partly because the CAB must con sider the needs of each carrier for “sufficient revenue . . . to provide adequate and efficient service.” Never theless, it is clear that because profits have risen sub stantially the industry and the CAB are in a better po sition to re-evaluate the existing structure of fares and charges. A prominent airline executive suggested in A verage a irlin e fares have declined since 1963 SOURCE: Inte rsta te Commerce Commission. G ains in a irlin e tra ffic have fluctuated more than changes in to ta l output per cent change from 1947 '49 '51 previous year '53 '55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics Board and D ep a rtm e n t o f Commerce. December 1965 that a new general fare investigation be launched. M oney for equipm ent Investment and credit analysts find the airlines to be a well documented industry from a purely statistical standpoint. Standardized quarterly reports of operat ing and financial results are filed with, and published by, the CAB. Similar equipment typically is operated by a number of lines and detailed cost comparisons for each type are available. Also, since 1934 the airlines have been engaged solely in the transportation of pas sengers and property by air. The domestic trunks and local service lines are not affiliated with aircraft manu facturers, or other forms of transportation. Even with comprehensive data available, a large element of judgment enters into any prognosis for the industry or for particular airlines. Because of rapid growth and other special characteristics of airline op erations, rule-of-thumb balance sheet ratios are not used as widely as in most other industries. Airline earnings, moreover, have tended to fluctuate sharply. Nevertheless, banks, insurance companies and other institutional lenders have been willing to finance a large proportion—75 per cent or more in some cases— of the capital investments in the past decade. Partly, this is because awards of competing routes are re stricted, and because of the belief that airline bank ruptcies will be prevented by subsidies or mergers. But the main reason is the confidence that lenders have that cash flow will be more than adequate to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 33 cover debt service even for lines that fail to earn net profits over periods of several years. In 1961 the airlines, as a group, suffered a net loss of almost 40 million dollars. Interest amounted to 94 million dollars that year, but depreciation and amortization allowances exceeded 400 million dollars amply covering debt service, including scheduled principal payments, for most lines. In the 12 months ending June 1965, depreciation and amortization amounted to 400 million dollars while net profits, at a record high, totaled 290 million dollars. Interest payments in the recent period were 106 million dollars. Additional cash also became available from equip ment sales and deferred taxes. Total cash flow has in creased each year during the past decade (see table). During the airlines’ early years, aircraft were de preciated in three to four years. After World War II a seven-year term was used commonly. At present, the airlines use various expected useful lives for book purposes, ranging from 10 to 16 years, and a residual value of 10 or 15 per cent. Many lines use a shorter life for tax purposes. (The Treasury’s 1962 guideline suggests six years.) Airline equipment financing commonly is provided by groups of large banks (usually located on the line’s routes), insurance companies or a combination of these institutions. In some cases there are cooperative plans with banks taking the shorter maturities of note issues—up to 5 or 10 years—and the insurance com panies taking maturities of 20 years and more. M ajor sources o f "cash flo w " fo r a ll scheduled airlines D e p r e c ia tio n o f f l ig h t e q u ip m e n t O th e r d e p r e c ia tio n and a m o r tiz a tio n In c re a s e in d e fe r r e d in co m e ta x e s R e ta in e d e a rn in g s T o ta l (rn illio n d o lla rs ) 1955 124 16 12 50 2 0 2 1956 133 18 15 53 219 1957 189 25 18 6 238 1958 1 81 28 29 16 254 1959 211 38 36 2 2 307 1960 257 58 30 1961 337 68 5 -5 9 351 1962 325 77 41 18 461 473 324 1963* 330 74 43 26 1964* 326 86 90 1 0 2 604 1965* 329 71 96 239 735 * Y e a r ended June 30. SOURCE: C ivil A eronautics Board. 34 -2 1 Annual Report, 1965 M ovies, stereo, b everage a nd fin e fo o d — luxuries o f to d a y 's firs t class a ir passenger Most airlines have continuing revolving credits with one or more banks. The credit line is based, in part, upon the depreciated value of all equipment in service. As a need arises, existing loan agreements can be amended and extended or converted to amortized term loans. Credit ratings of the airlines have been upgraded through the years. Most of the trunks borrow from commercial banks near the prime rate (paid by the largest and strongest commercial borrowers) or at a premium of .25 to .75 per cent above this rate. Re volving credit agreements usually provide that changes in the prime rate be reflected in changes in rates on outstanding loans. As much as 90 per cent of equipment loans, ranging up to 10 million dollars, to local service, territorial and helicopter airlines may be guaranteed by the CAB under legislation enacted in 1957 and extended in 1962. Loans are guaranteed only if adequate financing would not be available without this aid. Financing of new aircraft purchases typically is ar ranged before purchase programs are announced. Funds are advanced as down payments and subse quent progress payments become due. Often princi pal payments are deferred for two or three years until the new planes have been integrated into the air line’s operations and are contributing to revenues. Unlike many railroads, airlines do not have out- standing mortgage bond issues with after-acquired property clauses that take precedence over short term debt on claims to property. On the contrary, long-term debt typically is subordinated to short term debt. For this reason, the equipment trust cer tificate method, devised originally to bypass the afteracquired property clauses, has not been used in aircraft financing. Although chattel mortgages have been used to secure aircraft equipment loans, most of the out standing loans to the major lines by banks or insur ance companies are unsecured. However, loan agree ments contain “negative pledges” which state that aircraft will not be sold or subjected to a prior lien without the lender’s permission. Other negative cov enants in loan agreements specify restrictions on div idends and salaries and upon the issuance of addi tional debt. Affirmative covenants relate to adequate maintenance of aircraft, payment of taxes and mini mum working capital. Should any of these covenants be disregarded, the lender may demand immediate payment of the principal of the loan. The airlines have benefited substantially from the 7 per cent investment tax credit but, because of large equipment programs coupled with moderate profits, many airlines cannot take full advantage of the tax credit, which is limited to 25 per cent of a given year’s tax. As a result, some lines have entered into lease agreements for the acquisition of new equipment. Lessors in a position to take full advan tage of the tax credit buy and take title to aircraft, and adjust rental payments to share the benefits of the tax credit with lessees. Of course, long-term leases are virtually the equivalent of debt and are treated as such by investment analysts. Aircraft leasing has been arranged with both leas ing companies and commercial banks. Because of the investment tax credit, a syndicate of banks may be able to provide equipment to an airline at an effec tive interest rate of about 2 per cent, while anticipat ing earnings of over 5 per cent on the lease. The final cost to the airline and the extent of the profit to the banks will depend upon a number of unknowns, but, most importantly, the residual value of the aircraft accruing to the lessors as owners 10 to 16 years hence. T o w a rd the Seventies The airlines can be expected to continue to grow in importance in the economy in the years ahead. Barring business recessions, industry and Govern ment studies indicate that passenger traffic may rise 10 per cent or more annually—at least double the probable rate of expansion of total output. Cargo ton miles are likely to increase at an even faster pace. Air transport will have an increasing impact upon the pattern of location of new production facilities. Moreover, the availability of rapid transit by air to any part of the nation or the globe enables business firms to expand their market areas more readily. Rapid lo a d in g and u n lo a d in g o f p a lle tiz e d cargo speeds d elive ry o f a ir fre ig h t Some DC-3s a re being converted to a ll-c a rg o carriers by local service lines Distances can be measured more meaningfully today in air time rather than miles. Trimotors carried pas sengers coast to coast in 28 hours in 1929. In the late Thirties this trip took 16 hours, compared with at least 60 hours by train. The first nonstop trans continental flights in DC-7s, starting in 1953, took 8 hours. With the introduction of the jets, this time was cut to five hours. Supersonic transports (SSTs) may halve this schedule a decade or so hence. (Sched ules normally are faster on West to East flights with prevailing winds.) Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 35 M e rcha n d isin g a ir tra v e l— pastel planes and high style uniform s For some years to come, the nature if not the total numbers of the commercial air fleets appears predetermined. As piston aircraft are phased out, jets will fly the longer schedules, with turboprops filling in on shorter hauls. Virtually all the models expected to be used in the next several years are tried and proven so that no new “teething” difficulties are ex pected. Airlines are reducing the number of basic air craft types they operate to facilitate maintenance and flight planning. Production is now under way on “stretched-out” versions of aircraft now in service. Longer DC-8s will carry a maximum of 250 passengers compared to 173 at present. New Boeing 727s will carry 170 com pared to 90 in present models. Even the short-range DC-9s, just being introduced, are being ordered in lengthened versions to carry 115 persons—twice as many as the first four-engined piston aircraft. Costs per available seat mile are expected to be reduced 2025 per cent by these higher capacity aircraft. Longerrange aircraft also in production will permit nonstop flights well in excess of 5,000 miles, the longest now scheduled. Experiments continue on short takeoff and landing aircraft ( stol) and vertical takeoff and landing types ( vtol) to permit use of airports close to the downtown areas of large centers. Work is being pushed on supersonic transports to carry over 200 passengers at almost three times the speed of sound (Mach 3), and a giant transport for the Government (the C5A) that might carry 650 passengers if a civilian version were developed. But these radically 36 Annual Report, 1965 different aircraft are not expected to enter the domestic air transport picture until the Seventies. Possibly, earlier additions to present fleets will be aircraft seat ing 350 to 400. The new short- and medium-haul jets are releasing the four-engined models for the long trips, 1,500 miles or more, on which they achieve their greatest economies of operation. Extensive use is being made of computers in handling reservations, accounting, maintenance and flight planning. Air freight, despite great progress, has merely begun to tap its potential market. Passenger traffic will continue to gain as the economy grows and in comes rise. Business travel, which accounts for twothirds of current airline passenger miles will continue to increase, but this sector of the market already has been largely captured by the airlines. Moreover, business firms, increasingly, are providing their own seat-miles through 30,000 or more company owned aircraft. The largest potential passenger traffic gains are likely to occur in nonbusiness private travel. Aver sion to flying is much less prevalent in the younger age groups. Vacations are lengthening steadily and continued increases in spendable income and more liberal credit plans aid in financing longer trips. Only one-fourth of 1 per cent of personal consumption ex- A irline sh are o f consumer outlays fo r in te rcity tra ve l has risen sharply SOURCE: D ep a rtm e n t o f Commerce. penditures now are allotted to airline ticket pur chases. Airline managements are devoting their ef forts to raise this proportion. Commercial air transportation has reached its present “basic industry” stage in a remarkably short time. The route and scheduling patterns and the services and equipment familiar today in trunk line operations have mostly emerged in the postwar years. Local service lines are wholly a product of this era. As recently as two or three years ago, earnings of the carriers were a cause for deep concern about the industry’s ability to gain a firm financial foundation of profitability. The turnaround in airline profits has raised the rate of return for the trunks near the tar get level and the end of subsidies may be in sight for at least some of the local service lines. These developments pose a challenge not only for the industry but for regulation and official policy in air transportation. The emergence of substantial and rising profits may be taken as a clear sign that the air travel market is capable of sustaining even more schedules and services than are offered now with the added equipment and ground facilities to provide them. A stepped-up inflow of investment and additions of new schedules and new routes can be expected to emerge. Clearly, an important goal of public policy and company managements will be to secure further adaptation of the industry to the fast growing market for air transport. Testing a scale model o f a supersonic tra n s p o rt— 2,000 miles per h our a t 70,000 fe e t in 197? Acknow ledgm ents The ph oto g ra p h s in this section o f the A n n ua l Report Flying Tiger Line, Inc.: p. 28; G en eral Dynamics, C onvair were p ro vid e d by: A m erican A irlines: Cover, p. 13, p. 15 Division: p. 19— up pe r rig ht, m id dle le ft; Lake C entral A ir — to p rig h t, p. 2 0 — upper le ft, p. 21, p. 22— upper le ft, lines: p. 19— lo w er rig ht, p. 3 5 — lo w er rig h t; Lockheed p. 2 3 — bottom le ft and to p rig ht, p. 31— to p rig h t; The Boe A irc ra ft C o rp o ra tio n : p. 15— lo w er le ft, p. 17— lo w er le ft, ing C om pany: p. 9, p. 15— to p le ft, u p pe r center, m iddle p. 37; M ilw au kee C ounty A irp o rt D epartm ent: p. 26; M o left, p. 17— up pe r rig ht, lo w er center, p. 19— m iddle rig h t, haw k A irlines Inc.: p. 7, p. 19— m id dle ; N o rth C entral A ir bottom le ft; B ra n iff In te rn a tio n a l: p. 36; C ontinental A ir lines, Inc.: p. 17— up pe r le ft, p. 2 0 — upper rig h t, p. 24; lines: p. 34; Delta A irlines: p. 20— lo w er le ft; D ouglas A ir O 'H a re A irp o rt, D e pa rtm e nt o f A via tio n , C hicago: p. 8, p. c ra ft C om pany, Inc.: p. 15— m id dle right, lo w er center, 29 (M etro News Photo); United A ir Lines: p. 17— m iddle lo w er rig h t, p. 17— u p pe r center, lo w er rig h t, p. 19— low er le ft, p. 19— u p pe r left, p. 2 0 — lo w er rig ht, p. 22— low er le ft; Fairchild H iller C o rp o ra tio n : p. 17— m iddle rig h t; The le ft, p. 27, p. 31— bottom le ft, p. 35— upper m iddle. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 37 S T A T E M E N T OF C O N D I T I O N A sse ts G o ld c e rtific a te a c c o u n t ..................................... D e ce m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 6 5 D e ce m b e r 3 1 , 1 9 6 4 $ 2 ,2 0 9 ,4 9 5 ,0 4 7 $ 2 ,2 0 6 ,9 9 9 ,1 6 5 3 1 8 ,0 6 5 ,6 5 0 2 8 6 ,9 6 7 ,6 9 5 T o ta l g o ld c e rtific a te reserves $ 2 ,5 2 7 ,5 6 0 ,6 9 7 $ 2 ,4 9 3 ,9 6 6 ,8 6 0 F e d e ra l R eserve notes o f o th e r Banks 8 4 ,8 8 5 ,0 0 0 6 1 ,5 7 6 ,0 0 0 O th e r c a s h ............................................................ 2 1 ,6 8 1 ,9 0 5 2 5 ,4 6 7 ,3 0 4 R e d e m p tio n fund fo r F e d e ra l Reserve notes Discounts a n d a d v a n c e s : S ecured b y U. S. G o v e rn m e n t securities $ $ T o ta l discounts a n d a d v a n c e s 1 5 ,1 5 0 ,0 0 0 5 ,8 2 2 ,0 0 0 O t h e r ............................................................ 2 0 ,9 7 2 ,0 0 0 $ 2 ,2 5 0 ,0 0 0 ________4 ,2 3 0 ,0 0 0 $ 6 ,4 8 0 ,0 0 0 6 ,7 4 1 ,8 3 5 ,0 0 0 6 ,3 0 1 ,9 6 8 ,0 0 0 T o ta l loans a n d s e c u ritie s. $ 6 ,7 6 2 ,8 0 7 ,0 0 0 $ 6 ,3 0 8 ,4 4 8 ,0 0 0 Cash item s in process o f co lle c tio n 1 ,5 0 8 ,1 7 2 ,0 5 0 1 ,4 0 1 ,2 8 8 ,5 0 9 2 0 ,4 9 0 ,5 1 7 2 1 ,5 3 1 ,3 2 0 U. S. G o v e rn m e n t s e c u r i t i e s .............................. Bank p re m is e s ............................................................ O th e r a s s e t s ............................................................ 1 3 9 ,7 7 5 ,4 2 5 8 5 ,0 0 7 ,1 9 9 T o ta l a s s e t s ........................................... $1 1 ,0 6 5 ,3 7 2 ,5 9 4 $ 1 0 ,3 9 7 ,2 8 5 ,1 9 2 $ 6 ,8 9 0 ,6 4 2 ,1 4 5 $ 6 ,3 8 6 ,4 1 6 ,5 3 0 $ 2 ,8 1 4 ,2 8 2 ,4 5 3 $ 2 ,6 3 8 ,2 3 8 ,9 2 9 4 9 ,2 6 4 ,8 9 2 8 1 ,0 5 5 ,4 2 0 2 1 ,3 0 0 ,0 0 0 3 1 ,0 2 0 ,0 0 0 L ia b ilitie s F e d e ra l R eserve n o t e s ..................................... D eposits: M e m b e r b a n k r e s e r v e s .............................. U. S. T re a s u re r— g e n e ra l account F ore ig n . ............................................................ O t h e r ............................................................ 2 1 ,5 4 9 ,2 1 8 1 7 ,6 5 2 ,7 3 7 T o ta l d e p o s i t s ..................................... $ 2 ,9 0 6 ,3 9 6 ,5 6 3 $ 2 ,7 6 7 ,9 6 7 ,0 8 6 1 ,0 8 0 ,0 7 6 ,2 4 3 9 9 9 ,0 0 0 ,8 1 9 O th e r l i a b i l i t i e s ..................................................... 3 0 ,9 3 0 ,8 4 3 9 4 ,6 9 5 ,0 5 7 T o ta l l i a b i l i t i e s .................................... $ 1 0 ,9 0 8 ,0 4 5 ,7 9 4 $ 1 0 ,2 4 8 ,0 7 9 ,4 9 2 ..................................................... 7 8 .6 6 3 .4 0 0 7 4 .6 0 2 .8 5 0 ................................................................... 7 8 .6 6 3 .4 0 0 7 4 .6 0 2 .8 5 0 $1 1 ,0 6 5 ,3 7 2 ,5 9 4 $ 1 0 ,3 9 7 ,2 8 5 ,1 9 2 R atio o f g o ld c e rtific a te reserves to F e d e ra l Reserve n o te lia b ilitie s . ___________ 3 6 . 7 % ___________ 3 9 . 1 % C o n tin g e n t lia b ility on a c c e p ta n c e s p u rchased fo r fo re ig n c o rre s p o n d e n ts .............................. $ $ D e fe rre d a v a ila b ility cash item s . . . . C a p ita l a c c o u n ts C a p ita l p a id i n Surplus T o ta l lia b ilitie s a n d c a p ita l a c c o u n ts 38 Annual Report, 1965 2 0 ,3 9 1 ,2 0 0 1 7 ,3 1 4 ,8 0 0 S T A T E M E N T OF E A R N I N G S A N D E X P E N S E S C u rre n t e a rn in g s: 1965 Discounts a nd a d v a n c e s .................................................................................. . . $ 1964 3 ,9 3 3 ,3 9 6 $ 2 ,7 7 4 ,2 8 0 U. S. G o v e rn m e n t s e c u r i t i e s .......................................................................... . . 2 5 3 ,9 5 8 ,4 6 6 2 2 3 ,5 0 2 ,2 4 8 F ore ig n c u r r e n c ie s ................................................................................................. . . 1 ,9 7 9 ,9 4 4 9 0 1 ,8 2 3 A ll o t h e r ................................................................................................................ . . 6 8 ,9 9 7 4 8 ,5 4 1 T o ta l c u rre n t e a r n i n g s .................................................................................. . . $ 2 5 9 ,9 4 0 ,8 0 3 $ 2 2 7 ,2 2 6 ,8 9 2 O p e ra tin g e x p e n s e s .......................................................................................... . . $ 2 7 ,9 0 9 ,4 6 2 $ 2 8 ,3 7 2 ,0 3 3 F e d e ra l Reserve c u r r e n c y .................................................................................. . . 4 ,0 0 3 ,9 4 6 3 ,1 1 7 ,6 4 1 Assessment fo r expenses o f B o a rd o f G o v e r n o r s ..................................... . . 1 ,2 2 3 ,9 0 0 1 ,2 2 4 ,5 0 0 T o t a l ................................................................................................................ . . $ 3 3 ,1 3 7 ,3 0 8 $ 3 2 ,7 1 4 ,1 7 4 Less re im b u rs e m e n t fo r c e rta in fisca l a g e n c y a n d o th e r e x p e n s e s .................................................................................. . . 3 ,7 2 4 ,8 2 3 3 ,6 9 1 ,6 0 6 C u rre n t n e t e x p e n s e s .................................................................................. . . $ 2 9 ,4 1 2 ,4 8 5 $ 2 9 ,0 2 2 ,5 6 8 C u rre n t net e a rn in g s ......................................................................................... . . $ 2 3 0 ,5 2 8 ,3 1 8 $ 1 9 8 ,2 0 4 ,3 2 4 $ $ 1 0 3 ,8 8 1 $ 1 9 7 ,9 4 6 C u rre n t expenses: A d d itio n s to c u rre n t n e t earn in g s: P ro fit on sales o f U. S. G o v e rn m e n t securities ( n e t ) .............................. . . A ll o t h e r ................................................................................................................ . . T o ta l a d d i t i o n s ................................................................................................. . . — 9 4 ,0 6 5 1 9 5 ,2 3 0 $ 1 9 5 ,2 3 0 D eductions fro m c u rre n t net e arnings: Loss on sales o f U. S. G o v e rn m e n t securities (n e t) ..................................... . . 1,301 A ll o t h e r ................................................................................................................ . . 4 0 ,3 5 9 T o ta l d e d u c t i o n s .......................................................................................... . . $ 4 1 ,6 6 0 $ 3 5 ,7 6 6 . . $ 1 5 3 ,5 7 0 $ 1 6 2 ,1 8 0 N e t e a rn in g s b e fo re p a y m e n ts to U. S. T r e a s u r y .............................. . . $ 2 3 0 ,6 8 1 ,8 8 8 D iv id e n d s p a i d ................................................................................................................ . . 4 ,6 2 6 ,2 8 4 4 ,3 7 3 ,2 1 9 P aym ents to U. S. T re a s u ry (inte re st on F e d e ra l Reserve notes) . . 2 2 1 ,9 9 5 ,0 5 4 2 5 9 ,2 3 4 ,9 3 5 T ra n s fe rre d to s u r p l u s ................................................................................................. . . 4 ,0 6 0 ,5 5 0 $— 6 5 ,2 4 1 ,6 5 0 $ 7 4 ,6 0 2 ,8 5 0 $ 1 3 9 ,8 4 4 ,5 0 0 N e t d e d uc tio n s fro m (— ) o r a d d itio n s to c u rre n t n e t e a rn in g s $ 3 5 ,7 6 6 $ 1 9 8 ,3 6 6 ,5 0 4 S u rp lu s a c c o u n t Surplus, J a n u a ry 1 .............................. T ra n s fe rre d to surplus— as a b o v e Surplus, D e c e m b e r 31 . 4 ,0 6 0 ,5 5 0 — 6 5 ,2 4 1 ,6 5 0 $ 7 8 ,6 6 3 ,4 0 0 $ 7 4 ,6 0 2 ,8 5 0 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 39 1965 1964 Commercial bank c h e c k s ........................................................... 262,867 237,462 G over n m e n t c h e c k s* ................................................................... 17,186 16,777 O ther item s...................................................................................... 1,127 519 Commercial bank c h e c k s ........................................................... 745,431 687,893 G over n m e n t c h e c k s* ................................................................... 94,692 93,759 O ther item s...................................................................................... 1,794 1,716 Currency r e c e iv e d and c o u n t e d ........................................... 5,578 5,559 Coin r e c e iv e d and c o u n t e d ................................................... 38 47 Coin w r a p p e d ................................................................................ 83 67 Unfit currency withdrawn from c ir cu la tio n ...................... 833 864 Dollar amount (in millions) Clearing and collection Num ber o f p i e c e s (in thousands) Dollar amount (in millions) Currency and coin Num ber of p i e c e s (in millions) Currency r e c e iv e d and c o u n t e d ........................................... 866 893 Coin r e c e iv e d and c o u n t e d .................................................... 536 348 Coin w r a p p e d ................................................................................ 969 703 Unfit currency withdrawn from cir cu lation ...................... 159 222 Dollar amount (in millions) Safekeeping of securities! Securities r e c e i v e d ...................................................................... 15,957 16,792 Securities r e l e a s e d ...................................................................... 16,118 16,410 C o u p o n s d e t a c h e d ...................................................................., 260 262 In safe k e ep in g on D e ce m b e r 3 1 ........................................... 8,476 8,637 426 Num ber o f p i e c e s (in thousands) Securities r e c e i v e d ...................................................................... 383 Securities r e l e a s e d ...................................................................... 350 369 C o u p o n s d e t a c h e d ...................................................................... 3,008 2,913 In safe k e ep in g on D e ce m b e r 3 1 ........................................... 1,526 1,493 Total loans made during y e a r ............................................... 11,033 11,384 Daily a v e r a g e o u ts ta n d in g ...................................................... 95 77 Num ber o f banks a c c o m m o d a t e d during y e a r ......................... 171 179 Dollar amount (in millions) Discount and credit Purchases and sa le s of securities for member banks Investment Transfer of funds Dollar amount (in m illions)...................................................... 1,812 1,799 Number o f tr a n sa c tio n s............................................................ 18,075 17,150 Dollar amount o f funds transferred (in millions)..................... 686,256 570,905 Num ber o f transfers (in t h o u s a n d s ) ............................................... 672 615 in c l u d e s postal money orders. 40 Annual Report, 1965 "("Including c o lla te r a l custodies. 1965 1964 15,513 15,200 M arketable securities Dollar amount (in millions) Issu ed....................................................................................... Servicing: Securities r e c e i v e d ................................................. 18,021 15,806 Securities d e l i v e r e d .............................................. 21,439 20,961 R e d e e m e d .............................................................................. 19,280 20,050 344 348 Securities r e c e i v e d ................................................ 212 209 Securities d e l i v e r e d ............................................... 551 513 R e d e e m e d .............................................................................. 664 724 1,528 1,576 Number of p ie c e s (in thousands) Issu ed....................................................................................... Servicing: Services to the U.S. Treasury Savings bonds Dollar amount (in millions) Issu ed ....................................................................................... Servicing: Bonds r e c e iv e d for r eissu e ................................ 154 160 Bonds d e liv e r ed on reissue............................... 154 160 Bonds d e liv e r ed on r e p la c e m e n t ................... 5 5 R e d e e m e d .............................................................................. 1,068 1,028 24,127 22,880 Num ber of p ie c e s (in thousands) Issu ed....................................................................................... Servicing: Bonds r ec e iv e d for reissu e ................................ 699 699 Bonds de live r ed on r eiss u e ............................... 784 779 Bonds d e livered on r e p la c e m e n t ................... 70 60 R e d e e m e d .............................................................................. 16,393 15,313 Dollar amount (in m illions)...................................................... 8,201 7,793 Number o f p ie c e s (in th o u sa n d s)........................................ 1,937 1,912 Federal tax receipts p r o c es sed Requests for ad d itio n al copies o f this A n n ua l Report should be addressed to: Research D epartm ent Federal Reserve Bank o f C hicago Box 834 C hicago, Illinois 60690 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 41 FRANKLIN J. LUNDING C h a irm a n o f the Finance C om m ittee Jew el Tea C o m pa n y C h ica g o , Illin ois C h a irm a n a n d F e d e ra l R e se rve A g e n t JAMES H. HILTON, D ire cto r o f D evelopm ent Iow a State U niversity o f Science a n d T ech n o lo g y Am es, Iow a D e p u ty C h a irm a n JO H N H. CROCKER, C h a irm a n o f the Board W ILLIA M E. RUTZ, D ire cto r The C itizens N a tio n a l Bank o f D ecatur a n d M e m b e r o f the Executive C om m ittee D e ca tu r, Illinois G id d in g s & Lewis M a ch in e T ool C o m pa n y Fond du Lac, W isconsin W ILLIA M A . HANLEY, D ire c to r HARRY W. SCHALLER, President Eli Lilly & C o m pa n y The C itizens First N a tio n a l In d ia n a p o lis , In d ian a Bank o f Storm Lake Storm Lake, Iow a GERALD F. LANGENO HL, T reasurer a n d A ssistant S ecre tary (R etired) JO H N W . SHELDON, President A llis-C halm ers M a n u fa c tu rin g C o m pa n y Chas. A . Stevens & Co. M ilw a u k e e , W isconsin C h ica g o , Illinois KENNETH V. ZWIENER, C h a irm a n o f the Board H arris Trust a n d Savings Bank C h ica g o, Illinois DETROIT BRANCH JAMES W . MILLER, President W estern M ic h ig a n U niversity K a la m a zo o , M ich ig a n C h a irm a n FRANKLIN H. M OORE, C h a irm a n o f the B oard JO H N H. FRENCH, JR., President C ity N a tio n a l Bank o f D e tro it a n d President D e tro it, M ic h ig a n The C om m ercial a n d Savings Bank o f St. C la ir C o u n ty St. C la ir, M ich ig a n M A X P. HEAVENRICH, JR., President GUY S. PEPPIATT, C h a irm a n o f the Board H eavenrich Bros. & C om pany F ed e ra l-M o g u l C o rp o ra tio n S a g in a w , M ic hig a n D e tro it, M ichig a n R AY M O N D T. PERRING C. LINCOLN LINDERHOLM, President C h a irm a n o f the Board C e n tra l Bank The D e tro it Bank a n d Trust C o m pa n y G ra n d Rapids, M ic h ig a n D e tro it, M ich ig a n M EM BER OF FED ERA L A D V IS O R Y C O U N C IL EDWARD BYRON SMITH, C h a irm a n o f the B oard The N o rth e rn Trust C o m pa n y C h ica g o , Illin o is Decem ber 31, 1965 42 Annual Report, 1965 CHARLES J. SCANLON, President HUGH J. HELMER, First Vice President ERNEST T. B A U G H M A N , V ice President RICHARD A . MOFFATT, Vice President JO HN J. ENDRES, G e n e ra l A u d ito r HAROLD J. N E W M A N , Vice President ARTHUR M . GUSTAVSON, Vice President LELAND M . ROSS, Vice President PAUL C. HODGE, Vice President, HARRY S. SCHULTZ, Vice President G e n e ra l Counsel and S e cre tary LAURENCE H. JONES, Vice President a nd C ashier BRUCE L. SMYTH, V ice President CLARENCE T. LAIBLY, V ice President RUSSEL A . SW ANEY, V ice President CARL E. BIERBAUER, Assistant Vice President EDWARD A . HEATH, Assistant V ice President a nd Assistant S ecretary GEORGE W . CLOOS, S enior Economist JAMES R. MORRISON, C hief E xam iner LE ROY A . DAVIS, Assistant Vice President KARL A . SCHELD, Assistant Vice President LE ROY W . D AW SO N , Assistant Vice President ROBERT E. SORG, Assistant Vice President FRED A . DONS, Assistant G e n era l A u d ito r DANIEL M . DOYLE, Assistant Vice President JOSEPH J. SRP, Assistant Vice President ELBERT O. FULTS, Assistant Vice President LYNN A . STILES, S enior Economist VICTOR A . HANSEN, Assistant Vice President CHARLES G. W RIGHT, Assistant V ice President ARNOLD J. ANSCHUTZ, Assistant Cashier W ILLIA M O. HUME, Assistant Cashier HARRIS C. BUELL, JR., Assistant C hief E xam iner ERICH K. KROLL, Assistant C ashier W ARD J. LARSON, Assistant Counsel JO HN J. CAPOUCH, Assistant Cashier a n d Assistant S e cre tary FRANCIS C. EDLER, Assistant C ashier R AY M O N D M. SCHEIDER, Assistant C ashier LESTER A . GOHR, Assistant C ashier CARL W. WEISKOPF, Assistant C h ie f Exam iner DETROIT BRANCH RUSSEL A. SW ANEY, Vice President PAUL F. CAREY, Assistant Cashier RICHARD W . BLOOMFIELD, Assistant Vice President LOUIS J. PUROL, Assistant C ashier GO RDO N W . LAMPHERE, Assistant G e n e ra l Counsel W . GEORGE RICKEL, Assistant C ashier December 31, 1965 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 43 Appointm ent's, Elections an d R etirem ents 1 ) li ring the year the following appointments and elections were announced, effective January 1, 1966: Henry T. Bodman, Chairman of the Board, Na tional Bank of Detroit, Detroit, Michigan, was ap pointed Member of the Federal Advisory Council from the Seventh Federal Reserve District for 1966 to succeed Edward Byron Smith, Chairman of the Board, The Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois. Franklin J. Lunding, Chairman of the Finance Committee, Jewel Tea Company, Chicago, Illinois, was redesignated Chairman of the Board and Federal Reserve Agent for 1966. Guy S. Peppiatt, Chairman of the Board, FederalMogul Corporation, Detroit, Michigan, was reap pointed Director of the Detroit Branch Board for a three-year term ending December 31, 1968 and was designated Chairman of the Branch Board for 1966. Harry W. Schaffer, President, The Citizens First National Bank of Storm Lake, Storm Lake, Iowa, was reelected Director for a three-year term ending December 31, 1968. John W. Sheldon, President, Chas. A. Stevens & Co., Chicago, Illinois, a Director since 1961 was designated Deputy Chairman for 1966. B. P. Sherwood, Jr., President, Security First Bank & Trust Co., Grand Haven, Michigan, was appointed Director of the Detroit Branch Board for a threeyear term ending December 31, 1968, to succeed C. Lincoln Linderholm, President, Central Bank, Grand Rapids, Michigan. Elvis J. Stahr, Jr., President, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, was appointed Director for a three-year term ending December 31, 1968, to suc ceed James H. Hilton, Director of Development, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, Iowa. 44 Annual Report, 1965 Joseph O. Waymire, Vice President and Treasurer, Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, was elected Director for a three-year term ending De cember 31, 1968, to succeed William A. Hanley, Di rector, Eli Lilly and Company. Laurence H. Jones, Vice President and Cashier, relinquished the title of Cashier. Carl E. Bierbauer, Assistant Vice President, was promoted to Cashier. William O. Hume, Assistant Cashier, was pro moted to Assistant Vice President. Ward J. Larson, Assistant Counsel and Assistant Secretary, was promoted to Assistant General Coun sel and Assistant Secretary. Rudolph W. Dybeck was elected Assistant Cashier. The employes listed below, all with service records of more than 25 years, retired in the course of the year from the Bank: Olive R. Almquist Winifred M. Hyland Elmer C. Bagaasen Hortense Leader Dorothy Malcomb Helen A. Baldus Matt W. Malone John Borsig Fred W. Burgess Lillian H. Ohnmeis Ingeborg C. Paulson Grant E. Erickson Walter W. Peterson John Gibson Ruth D. Hamilton Charles M. Rust The following employes retired after association with the Head Office or Detroit Branch for more than 40 years: Agnes V. Buckley Frank Lane Morris Bonnem Arthur G. Langlois Lawrence E. Howes Wilma W. Ritchie Milton C. Laibly Herbert H. Spencer-Smith These 24 retired employes of the Bank represent more than 870 years of service to this institution.