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Dennis Lockhart

President and CEO of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2016 Annual Report

The Cyclical Revovery
In the complex U.S. economy, trends do not often fit cleanly into categories such as cyclical and secular.
Broadly speaking, though, it is possible to classify certain developments as mainly cyclical and others as more
persistent, or secular.
As the video explained, we have experienced a cyclical economic recovery (see
annual-report/2016.aspx). Let’s delve deeper into cyclical elements of the economy that have, by and large,

Annual GDP growth is a sort of speedometer for the nation’s economy.
Start with the broadest gauge of the nation’s entire economy. Gross domestic product, or GDP, is a monetary
measure of the value of all final goods and services produced. In 2016, GDP in the United States totaled roughly
$18.9 trillion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Another important macroeconomic indicator is
inflation, which has been below the central bank’s 2 percent target throughout the recovery.

Congress established the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy objectives of maximum employment and stable
prices in the Federal Reserve Act. These legislated objectives are often referred to as the “dual mandate.
”Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

GDP growth

Turning to the overall economy, GDP growth since the Great Recession has been weak by historical standards.
Burdened by the depth and duration of the recession, the severe financial crisis, and various secular factors
discussed later, annual real GDP growth since the end of the last recession has hovered around 2 percent. In
contrast, within three years after the previous six recessions, annual GDP growth had reached almost 4 percent.

A windy decade (Timeline)
An extraordinary increase in house prices and mortgage debt partially set the stage for the financial crisis.
From 1998 to 2006, average U.S. home prices more than doubled, while home mortgage debt rose from the
equivalent of 61 percent of GDP to 97 percent of GDP.
Look through the decade-long timeline to view some of the unexpected events that likely
influenced the economic recovery.

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Contribution to real GDP

Both nonresidential fixed investment—basically the part of GDP that represents investment spending by
businesses—and consumer spending on goods and services suffered very large declines in 2008 and 2009.
The recovery from the recession has shown a divergence between the roles of business versus household
spending in supporting GDP growth. Initially, growth in business spending helped offset relatively weak consumer
spending. The latter was held back by high unemployment and large household debt. But consumer spending
has picked up pace in more recent years as the labor market and debt positions improved. At the same time,
however, business investment growth has waned. The net result has been GDP growth stuck at around 2 percent
a year.

JULY 2007

JULY 2007
Bear Stearns liquidates mortgage-backed
securities hedge funds


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t


The trend in inflation, as indicated by year-over-year change in the price index for nonfood and energy consumer
expenditures, has generally hovered between 1 and 2 percent since 2009, a bit below the Fed’s 2 percent
target—but similar to where it has been since the mid-1990s. Even though the inflation trend dipped in the
wake of the recession, the trend then stabilized. This return to relative stability can reasonably be attributed to
the Fed’s strong commitment to its 2 percent inflation objective, which its aggressive policy actions during the
recession and recovery demonstrated.

Interbank credit markets freeze

Citigroup writes down subprime mortgage losses

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Forecasters’ expectations

An important ingredient for achieving low and stable inflation in the future is that households and businesses
believe that inflation will actually be low and stable in the future. Surveys of professional forecasters provide one
indicator of those expectations. These have remained relatively stable over time at a level that is close to the
Fed’s inflation objective.

Economic Stimulus Act signed

MARCH 2008
Bear Stearns collapses; bought by JPMorgan Chase


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Businesses’ expectations

Because inflation expectations are an important barometer of how businesses plan to act, the Atlanta Fed asks
businesses directly about pressures on their production costs. The Atlanta Fed survey of Business Inflation
Expectations shows that firms’ expectations over the coming year move in line with changes in actual inflation,
and have recently moved higher to a level broadly consistent with the Fed’s longer-run inflation objective.

Labor Market
The labor market: More of us are working than ever.
Businesses have been hiring at a solid pace despite tepid growth in output. Consequently, aggregate
employment has staged a reasonably robust cyclical recovery from a bruising downturn.

”Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Nonfarm employment

In March 2014, employment finally returned to the level of December 2007, when the Great Recession officially
began. After hitting bottom in September 2010, the labor market had 75 consecutive months of employment
growth through December 2016, adding 15.6 million jobs. We ended 2016 with nearly 7 million more payroll
jobs than before the recession began.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac go into government

Lehman Brothers collapses; largest bankruptcy
in U.S. history


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t


The most often-cited measure of unemployment ended 2016 exactly where it was immediately before the Great
Recession, 4.7 percent. The “headline” unemployment rate steadily declined since peaking at 10 percent in
October 2009—another sign of cyclical recovery.

American International Group (AIG) accepts
$85 billion federal loan

FOMC cuts fed funds rate target to 0–0.25%

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Shadow labor force

During the recession, economists often spoke of a “shadow labor force”—people who wanted a job but were
not actively looking for work. They are not counted in the labor force and thus are not recorded as unemployed.
These people are a “shadow labor force” of sorts because they do tend to reenter the job market at some point.
Some 40 percent of the marginally attached in a given month join the labor force the following month, Atlanta
Fed research finds. During much of the recovery, the once-expanding shadow labor force signaled nagging
underlying weakness in the job market, even as employment increased. Gradually, however, their ranks have
been shrinking as more people reenter the workforce because of improved job opportunities. And more stable
employment has meant that fewer people are entering the shadows.

FOMC says Fed will buy long-term Treasury

President Obama signs $787 billion stimulus


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Part-time for economic reasons

Another concerning labor market indicator has been widespread underemployment—people working part-time
who want a full-time job. Like the shadow labor force, this group has shrunk during the recovery as employment
conditions have improved but remains a bit larger than it was before the Great Recession.

Consumer Finances
Consumers’ finances are much healthier.
Consumer spending is the largest single component of GDP, so the health of the consumer sector is crucial to
the health of the overall economy. Several broad measures of consumers’ financial well-being and spending
describe a cyclical recovery.

”Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Household net worth

During the recession, widespread unemployment produced a severe drop in aggregate labor income. At the
same time, falling home and investment portfolio values battered consumers’ wealth. The collective net worth of
households (the value of assets less liabilities) has since climbed relative to their income, thanks mainly to rising
stock and home prices.

Unemployment peaks at 10%

JULY 2009
European debt crisis intensifies


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Consumer spending

As employment, income, household wealth, and consumer confidence rebounded, total consumer spending also
climbed, albeit a bit more slowly than recent norms.

MARCH 2010
Affordable Care Act becomes law

APRIL 2010
Greek debt crisis deepens

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Consumer confidence

By the end of 2016, consumers’ confidence in the economy bested its pre-recession level. This matters.
Sentiment can be an important signal of future consumption—confident consumers are active consumers. Along
with real personal income growth, household wealth, and access to credit, confidence is an important element
supporting consumption growth.

JULY 2010
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer
Protection Act signed into federal law

Congress approves $860 billion tax cut, extends
unemployment insurance


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

The residential real estate market is vital to the economy, even though new residential construction accounts
for only about 3 percent of GDP. For homeowners, purchasing a home is usually their largest single financial
transaction, and their homes may become their most valuable holding. In fact, residential real estate accounts
for about 70 percent of the value of all household nonfinancial assets. The real estate sector also supports
hundreds of thousands of construction jobs, as well as employment for those selling homes, making home loans,
and producing and selling housing-related goods and services.

”Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.

Arab Spring protests spread

MARCH 2011
Massive earthquake, tsunami take place
in Japan

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Home prices

Home prices climbed to record levels in 2006 in the run-up to the housing bubble but began falling before the
recession hit. They reached a new low in 2012 and have for the most part recovered to the same levels they
were at the peak of the housing market. There are concerns that upward pressure on home prices is making
homes unaffordable in some areas.

JULY 2011
Debt ceiling crisis threatens U.S. government
debt default

Budget Control Act avoids default, brings
big cuts


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

New home sales

The bursting of the housing bubble flooded the country with distressed properties as mortgage loan defaults
mounted, and foreclosures rose to record levels in 2009. Layered on top of that, rising unemployment during the
recession further squelched the demand for homes.

China’s economic growth slows through 2011

Superstorm Sandy strikes New Jersey, New York;
second costliest U.S. hurricane ever

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Existing home sales

Rising house prices during the economic recovery have helped increase homeowners’ equity. However, rising
prices also dampened the demand for home purchases somewhat, which is one of the reasons that home
sales have not rebounded more strongly. Other factors may also be constraining housing demand. For example,
the rate of household formation is lower than it was, as a larger share of young adults are living longer in their
parents’ homes.

Euro zone economy falls back into recession

U.S. government approaches “fiscal cliff”


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Monetary Policy
Monetary policy was the primary public policy tool deployed during much of the recovery, and it likely supported
the cyclical rebound. Even though the economy has returned to a healthier state, by historical standards,
monetary policy remains accommodative—interest rates are low. That’s largely because of the secular factors
restraining the recovery.

Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.

MARCH 2013
Automatic spending cuts begin (sequestration)

JULY 2013
Detroit files nation’s largest public sector

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Fed funds rate

First to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis on the economy, and then to support an economic recovery, the
Fed has been keeping interest rates very low. Nearly nine years after the federal funds rate was effectively cut to
zero, it remains historically low. Moreover, given projections of lower potential GDP growth in the future, the Fed
expects that rates will not return to levels we saw before the recession. In December 2016, the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) boosted its target for the fed funds rate, to a range of 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent.
Over the longer run, the FOMC expects that the funds rate will be in the neighborhood of 3 percent—a lower longrun level than in the past.

U.S. government shuts down for 16 days

Affordable Care Act goes live


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Fed balance sheet

After the standard tool of monetary policy—lowering the federal funds rate—was by itself insufficient to stimulate
the economy in the depths of the recession, the central bank purchased bonds and other assets to try and push
down long-term interest rates to spur economic growth. Quantitative easing, or QE, was an unconventional way
to relax monetary policy. As the Fed purchased bonds in three rounds—in 2009–10, in 2011, and 2012 through
2014—the balance sheet grew from under $1 trillion to about $4.5 trillion. QE ended in late 2014.
The FOMC has stated that it expects to reduce the size of its balance sheet once the normalization of interest
rates is well under way.

Fed begins reducing asset purchases

JULY 2014
Crude oil prices fall sharply

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Secular Trends
Beneath the cyclical healing lie stubborn forces that have not been much influenced by monetary policy, and
probably won’t be. Addressing these issues is likely up to federal and state legislative bodies, along with the
private sector.

Note that in the following charts, gray bars indicate recessions.

Police shootings, demonstrations roil U.S.

Fed announces end of quantitative easing



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Population aging

Age demographics influence numerous aspects of the economy including consumption, wealth distribution, and
investment patterns. A number of researchers view aging as a major reason for recent tepid GDP growth. In an
October 2016 paper, a group of Federal Reserve economists writes that demographic factors, especially aging,
have helped create a “new normal” of slow GDP growth and low interest rates that could last decades.

Worries about Chinese economy send Dow down
over 1,000 points in a day

Terrorists carry out attack in Paris

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Labor force participation

One of the biggest of these secular forces is a declining trend in the labor force participation (LFP) rate—the
share of the adult population wanting and available to work.
An expanding labor force is critical to economic growth. In the simplest terms, the economy’s long-term growth
rate equals the growth rate of labor employed plus the growth rate of the productivity of that labor. We’ve seen
what’s happened amid slow growth of productivity and the labor force during the recovery: a tepid economic

FOMC raises rate target to 0.25–0.50%

JUNE 2016
United Kingdom votes to leave European Union


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Contributions to change

Many factors have put downward pressure on the LFP rate over the last decade. But the longer-term issue of an
increasing share of the population reaching retirement age has been the biggest single drag on participation,
according to the Atlanta (see
In fact, over the last few years, aging was the only significant factor still holding back participation.
Countervailing forces—including individuals delaying retirement, a shrinking shadow labor force, and people not
seeking work for health reasons—all helped offset the effect of an aging population.

Bitter U.S. presidential election

Largest migration of refugees since World War II

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Productivity growth

Labor productivity is the output of goods and services per hour of work across the economy. The pace of
productivity growth slowed to about 1.25 percent a year over the past decade, versus more than 3 percent in
the late 1990s through 2004 and more than 2 percent over the previous 30 years.
Advancing labor productivity underpins wage growth and general prosperity. If productivity increases 2 percent
a year, the average American’s standard of living will double roughly every 35 years, Fed Chair Janet Yellen says.
One percent annual growth means the standard of living doubles every 70 years.


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Private fixed investment

Weak investment spending by businesses in recent years has almost certainly hindered productivity growth.
While U.S. companies have broadly increased spending on assets such as equipment, buildings, and software
since the recession, the pace of spending has been low by historical standards. Businesses typically delay
investing amid uncertainty, and uncertainty has been unusually high in recent years.
Nevertheless, slow investment spending relative to employment growth has sparked concern. Supplying workers
with newer, better plants, equipment, and software has traditionally spurred productivity growth. But in recent
years, growth in the capital stock of U.S. businesses has barely kept pace with expansion of the workforce.
With slower labor force growth potentially coming, we need better labor productivity to support even modest
GDP expansion.

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


Employment reallocation

Another secular challenge lies in declining business dynamism. One indicator of this is the employment
reallocation rate—the rate at which businesses create and destroy jobs. In the early 1990s about 12 percent of
employment shifted across firms from one year to the next. By 2015, that rate had declined to only 9 percent.
Productivity growth is generally supported by the decline of low productivity businesses and the expansion of
more productive competitors. This growth is typically associated with high rates of resource reallocation. So the
decline in the rate of job transformation is a potentially worrying sign for future productivity growth.


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Employment at young firms

New and young firms—those that are five years old or younger—are vital jobs creators. Yet the rate of business
formation is much lower than 40 years ago, and has shown almost no recovery from the last recession. Besides
employment, fewer start-ups could also depress productivity, since fast-growing young businesses help spark
productivity growth.
It’s not entirely clear why startups are scarcer. Theories include an older population, limited supply of or access
to risk capital, and a less competitive business environment that favors incumbents over new entrants. It’s also
possible that better matching of people with jobs has made workers happier and thus less likely to strike out on
their own.

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive

Unexpected headwinds keep interfering with steady growth.
Unpredictable events can sow uncertainty that can restrict hiring and capital spending. Events that generate
policy uncertainty “foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment,” economists Scott R. Baker,
Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis write in a March 2016 paper. That trio maintains an index measuring
economic policy uncertainty (see
Of course, unpredicted events didn’t start in the past decade. But the index of policy uncertainty has drifted
upward since the 1960s, Baker, Bloom, and Davis write. And since 2007, policymakers have faced seemingly
unrelenting waves of uncertainty. Consequently, says Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed president from early 2007
until the end of February 2017, “It’s very difficult, in real time, to know exactly where the economy is.”
Note that in the chart, gray bars indicate recessions.

U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Sixth District Directors
Federal Reserve Banks each have a board of nine directors. Directors provide economic information, have broad
oversight responsibility for their bank’s operations, and, with the Board of Governors’ approval, appoint the bank’s
president and first vice president. Six directors—three class A, representing the banking industry, and three class
B—are elected by banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System. Three class C directors (including the
chair and deputy chair) are appointed by the Board of Governors. Class B and C directors represent agriculture,
commerce, industry, labor, and consumers in the district; they cannot be officers, directors, or employees of a bank;
class C directors cannot be bank stockholders. Fed branch office boards have five or seven directors; the majority
are appointed by head-office directors and the rest by the Board of Governors.

Thomas A. Fanning (Chair)

Jonathan T. M. Reckford

Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Southern Company
Atlanta, Georgia

Chief Executive Officer
Habitat for Humanity International
Atlanta, Georgia

Michael J. Jackson (Deputy Chair)

William H. Rogers Jr.

Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President
AutoNation Inc.
Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
SunTrust Banks Inc.
Atlanta, Georgia

Myron A. Gray

Elizabeth A. Smith

President, U.S. Operations
United Parcel Service
Atlanta, Georgia

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Bloomin’ Brands Inc.
Tampa, Florida

Gerard R. Host

José S. Suquet

President and Chief Executive Officer
Trustmark Corporation
Jackson, Mississippi

Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Pan-American Life Insurance Group
New Orleans, Louisiana

T. Anthony Humphries
President and Chief Executive Officer
NobleBank & Trust
Anniston, Alabama

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive

Pamela B. Hudson, MD (Chair)

Robert W. Dumas

Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Southern Company
Atlanta, Georgia

President and Chief Executive Officer
Auburn, Alabama

David M. Benck

Nancy C. Goedecke

Vice President and General Counsel
Hibbett Sports
Birmingham, Alabama

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mayer Electric Supply Company
Birmingham, Alabama

Brandon W. Bishop

Herschell L. Hamilton

International Representative, Southern Region
International Union of Operating Engineers
Birmingham, Alabama

Managing Partner
BLOC Global Group
Birmingham, Alabama

Michael Case
President and Chief Executive Officer
The Westervelt Company
Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Carolyn M. Fennell (Chair)

Dana S. Kilborne

Senior Director of Public Affairs and Community
Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
Orlando International Airport
Orlando, Florida

Co-President and Chief Commercial Officer
Sunshine Bank
Orlando, Florida

David L. Brown

Director of Strategic Partnerships
Office of the Mayor
City of Jacksonville
Jacksonville, Florida

Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President
Jacksonville, Florida

Michael J. Grebe
Advisory Director
Berkshire Partners
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

John Hirabayashi
President and Chief Executive Officer
Community First Credit Union of Florida
Jacksonville, Florida

Dawn Lockhart

Harold Mills
Vice Chairman
Orlando, Florida



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Rolando Montoya (Chair)

Victoria E. Villalba

Miami Dade College
Miami, Florida

President and Chief Executive Officer
Victoria & Associates Career Services Inc.
Miami, Florida

Thomas W. Hurley

Millar Wilson

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Becker Holding Corporation
Vero Beach, Florida

Vice Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mercantil Commercebank
Coral Gables, Florida

Carol C. Lang

Michael A. Wynn

HealthLink Enterprises Inc.
Miami Beach, Florida

Board Chairman and President
Sunshine Ace Hardware
Bonita Springs, Florida

Gary L. Tice
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
First Florida Integrity Bank
Naples, Florida

Kathleen Calligan (Chair)

Richard D. Holder

Chief Executive Officer
Better Business Bureau Middle Tennessee
Nashville, Tennessee

President and Chief Executive Officer
NN Inc.
Johnson City, Tennessee

Kent M. Adams

R. Craig Holley

President and Chief Executive Officer
Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation
Vice President, Caterpillar Inc.
Nashville, Tennessee

Chattanooga Chairman
Pinnacle Financial Partners
Chattanooga, Tennessee

William Y. Carroll Jr.

Scott McWilliams

President and Chief Executive Officer
Pigeon Forge, Tennessee

Executive Vice President Strategic Development
Brentwood, Tennessee

Beth R. Chase
Chief Executive Officer
Nashville, Tennessee

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive


New Orleans
Art E. Favre (Chair)

Suzanne T. Mestayer

President and Chief Executive Officer
Performance Contractors Inc.
Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Managing Principal
ThirtyNorth Investments LLC
New Orleans, Louisiana

Elizabeth A. Ardoin

Terrie P. Sterling

Senior Executive Vice President
Director of Communications
Lafayette, Louisiana

Executive Vice President and Chief Operating
Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center
Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Lampkin Butts

Fred T. Stimpson III

President and Chief Operating Officer
Sanderson Farms Inc.
Laurel, Mississippi

President, U. S. South Operations
Canfor Scotch Gulf
Mobile, Alabama

Phillip R. May
President and Chief Executive Officer
Entergy Louisiana LLC and
Entergy Gulf States Louisiana L.L.C.
Jefferson, Louisiana


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Management Committee

Seated (l-r): Marie C. Gooding, Dennis P. Lockhart, David E. Altig
Standing (l-r): André T. Anderson, Michael E. Johnson, Brian Bowling, Mary M. Kepler, Richard Jones
Not pictured: Cheryl L. Venable, Leah L. Davenport, Anne M. DeBeer

Dennis P. Lockhart

Brian Bowling

President and Chief Executive Officer

Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer, and
Chief Financial Officer

Marie C. Gooding
First Vice President and Chief Operating Officer

Leah L. Davenport
Senior Vice President, Operations and Administrative Services

David E. Altig
Executive Vice President and Director of Research

Anne M. DeBeer (retired)

Michael E. Johnson

Senior Vice President, Chief Information Officer, and
Chief Financial Officer

Executive Vice President, Supervision and Regulation

Richard Jones
Cheryl L. Venable

Senior Vice President and General Counsel

Executive Vice President and Retail Payments Office
Product Manager

Mary M. Kepler
Senior Vice President, Chief Risk and Compliance Officer

André T. Anderson
Senior Vice President and Corporate Engagement Officer

Senior Vice Presidents
Scott Dake
Senior Vice President

Brian D. Egan
Senior Vice President

William J. Devine
Senior Vice President

Keith Melton
Senior Vice President

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive

Vice Presidents
Daniel M. Baum
Vice President

Gregory S. Johnston
Vice President

Kelly A. Bernard
Vice President

Evette H. Jones
Vice President

Dwight S. Blackwood
Vice President and Assistant General Counsel

Lee C. Jones
Vice President and Regional Executive, Nashville

Anita F. Brown
Vice President and Financial Management and Planning Controller

John A. Kolb Jr.
Vice President

Michael F. Bryan
Vice President and Senior Economist

D. Blake Lyons
Vice President

Joan H. Buchanan
Vice President and Chief Diversity Officer

Lesley A. McClure
Vice President and Regional Executive, Birmingham

Annella D. Campbell-Drake
Vice President

Christopher Oakley
Vice President and Regional Executive, Jacksonville

Michael J. Chriszt
Vice President and Public Affairs Officer

Doris Quiros
Vice President

Suzanna J. Costello
Vice President

Cynthia L. Rasche
Vice President

Patrick E. Dyer
Vice President

Juan C. Sanchez
Vice President

William Russell Eubanks
Vice President and Chief Information Security Officer

Adrienne L. Slack
Vice President and Regional Executive, New Orleans

Richard Fraher
Vice President and Counsel to the Retail Payments Office

Paula A. Tkac
Vice President and Senior Economist

Karen Brown Gilmore
Vice President and Regional Executive, Miami

Charles L. Weems
Vice President

Amy S. Goodman
Vice President

Julius Weyman
Vice President

Cynthia C. Goodwin
Vice President

Kenneth Wilcox
Vice President

Todd H. Greene
Vice President

Christina M. Wilson
Vice President and Branch Manager, Jacksonville

Kevin T. Jansen
Vice President

Stephen W. Wise
Vice President



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Assistant Vice Presidents
Christopher N. Alexander
Assistant Vice President

James M. Gibson
Assistant Vice President and Assistant General Auditor

Giuseppina Bitetti
Assistant Vice President

Rebecca L. Gunn
Assistant Vice President

Kim Blythe
Assistant Vice President

Paige B. Harris
Assistant Vice President

Jonathan L. Burns
Assistant Vice President

Carolyn Ann Healy
Assistant Vice President

Tonya D. Byrd-Sorrells
Assistant Vice President

Kathryn G. Hinton
Assistant Vice President

Reginald R. Chever
Assistant Vice President

Torion L. Kent
Assistant Vice President

Karen W. Clayton
Karl Lamb
Assistant Vice President, EEO Officer, and Deputy Diversity Officer Assistant Vice President
Chapelle D. Davis
Assistant Vice President

Lisa Lee-Fogarty
Assistant Vice President

S. Paige Dennard
Assistant Vice President

Karen Leone de Nie
Assistant Vice President

Patrick R. Dierberger
Assistant Vice President

Stephen A. Levy
Assistant Vice President

Angela H. Dirr
Assistant Vice President and Assistant General Counsel

Margaret D. Martin
Assistant Vice President

Michael E. Duren
Assistant Vice President

Lantanya N. Mauriello
Assistant Vice President

Shilpa S. Dutt
Assistant Vice President

Srinivas V. Nori
Assistant Vice President

Bevery L. Ferrell
Assistant Vice President and Branch Manager, Miami

John C. Pelick
Assistant Vice President

Gregory S. Fuller
Assistant Vice President

J. Elaine Phifer
Assistant Vice President and Compliance Officer

Jennifer L. Gibilterra
Assistant Vice President

Jaswanth G. Rao
Assistant Vice President

Rec e s sion t o Rec over y : A Dec ade in Per spec t ive

Robin R. Ratliff
Assistant Vice President and Public Information Officer

Richard H. Squires
Assistant Vice President and Branch Manager, New Orleans

Joan Marie Redwing
Assistant Vice President

Anthony S. Stallings
Assistant Vice President

Paul D. Roberts
Assistant Vice President

Allen D. Stanley
Assistant Vice President

Princeton G. Rose
Assistant Vice President

Jeffrey W. Thomas
Assistant Vice President

W. Allen Sautter
Assistant Vice President

William R. Wheeler III
Assistant Vice President

Jeffrey F. Schiele
Assistant Vice President

Michael R. Williams
Assistant Vice President

Maria Smith
Assistant Vice President

Molly T. Willison
Assistant Vice President



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Federal Advisory Council Representative
O. B. Grayson Hall Jr.
Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Regions Financial Corporation
Birmingham, AL

Regional Economic Information Network Advisory Councils
David Bertrand
Bertrand Rice LLC
Elton, LA

Bart Krisle
Chief Executive Officer
Tennessee Farmers Co-op
La Vergne, TN

Lorraine Bertrand
Bertrand Rice LLC
Elton, LA

Gaylon Lawrence Jr.
The Lawrence Group
Nashville, TN

Donna Jo Curtis
Curtis Farms
Athens, AL

Larkin Martin
Managing Partner
Martin Farms
Courtland, AL

Marsha Folsom
Chief Development Officer
Resource Fiber
Cullman, AL

James “Jimmy” Sanford
Chairman of the Board
Home Place Farm Inc.
Prattville, AL

Mike Giles
Georgia Poultry Federation
Gainesville, GA

Gray Skipper
Vice President
Scotch Plywood Company
Fulton, AL

George Hamner Jr.
Indian River Exchange Packers Inc.
Vero Beach, FL

Robert Thomas
Two Rivers Ranch Inc.
Thonotosassa, FL

David Kahn
Birmingham, AL

John Williams
President and Chief Executive Officer
Zen-Noh Grain Corporation
Mandeville, LA

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Kenneth Beer
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Stone Energy Corporation
Lafayette, LA

Michael “Mike” Mansfield
Chief Executive Officer
Mansfield Oil Company
Gainesville, GA

W. Paul Bowers
Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Georgia Power Company
Atlanta, GA

Jeffrey “Jeff” Platt
President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director
New Orleans, LA

Charles Goodson
President and Chief Executive Officer
PetroQuest Energy
Lafayette, LA

John Ramil
President and Chief Executive Officer
TECO Energy
Tampa, FL

C. Michael Illane
Vice President
Gulf of Mexico Unit
Chevron North America
Covington, LA

Earl Shipp
Vice President of Operations
U.S. Gulf Coast
Dow Chemical
Freeport, TX

Luther “Luke” Kissam
President and Chief Executive Officer
Albemarle Corporation
Baton Rouge, LA

Stephen Toups
Executive Vice President
Turner Industries LLC
Baton Rouge, LA

Mark Maisto
Commodities, Trading, and Commercial Services
Nextera Energy Inc.
Juno Beach, FL

Thomas “Tom” Yura
Senior Vice President and General Manager
Geismar, LA



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Trade and Transportation
Adriene Bailey
Chief Strategy Officer
Yusen Logistics (Americas) Inc.
Jacksonville, FL

Deborah A. McDowell
Director of Customer Service and Business Development
Jacksonville, FL

Mark Bostick
Comcar Industries
Auburndale, FL

Clifford K. Otto
Saddle Creek Logistics Services
Lakeland, FL

Curtis Foltz
Executive Director
Georgia Ports Authority
Savannah, GA

David Parker
Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Covenant Transportation Group
Chattanooga, TN

John Giles
Chief Executive Officer
Central Maine & Quebec Railway
Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Andy Powell
Vice President and General Manager
Grieg Star Shipping Inc.
Atlanta, GA

Clarence Gooden
CSX Transportation
Jacksonville, FL

Ken Roberts
WorldCity Inc.
Coral Gables, FL

Chris Mangos
Director, Marketing Division
Miami-Dade Aviation Department
Miami, FL

Travel and Tourism
Lesz Banham
Vice President, Financial Planning and Communications
Walt Disney Parks and Resorts U.S.
Orlando, FL

Shelly Smith Fano
Director of Hospitality Management
Miami Dade College
Miami, FL

Susannah Costello
Vice President, Global Brand
Tallahassee, FL

Amanda Hite
President and Chief Executive Officer
STR Inc.
Hendersonville, TN

Robert “Bob” Dearden
Chief Financial Officer
Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association
Tallahassee, FL

Mark A. Kempa
Senior Vice President of Finance
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
Miami, FL

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Ina Lee
TravelHost of Greater Fort Lauderdale
Fort Lauderdale, FL
Mark Romig
President and Chief Executive Officer
New Orleans Tourism Marketing Corporation
New Orleans, LA

Alvin L. West
Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President, Finance and
Greater Miami Convention & Visitors Bureau
Miami, FL
Andrew Wexler
Chief Executive Officer
Herschend Family Entertainment Corporation
Peachtree Corners, GA

Mark Vaughan
Executive Vice President and
Chief Sales and Marketing Officer
Atlanta Convention and Visitors Bureau
Atlanta, GA

Other Advisory Councils
Center for Quantitative Economic Research
Lawrence Christiano
Department of Economics
Northwestern University

Richard Rogerson
Department of Economics and Public Affairs
Princeton University

Martin Eichenbaum
Ethel and John Lindgren Professor of Economics
Northwestern University

Thomas Sargent
Leonard N. Stern School of Business
New York University

Sergio Rebelo
Department of Economics
Kellogg School of Management
Northwestern University

Chris Sims
Department of Economics
Princeton University



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Community Depository Institutions
Brad M. Bolton
President, Chief Executive Officer, and Senior Lender
Community Spirit Bank
Red Bay, AL

David R. “Jude” Melville III
President and Chief Executive Officer
Business First Bank
Baton Rouge, LA

Alvin J. Cowans
President and Chief Executive Officer
McCoy Federal Credit Union
Orlando, FL

Claire W. Tucker
President and Chief Executive Officer
CapStar Bank
Nashville, TN

Cynthia N. Day
President and Chief Executive Officer
Citizens Trust Bank
Atlanta, GA

Agustin Velasco
President and Chief Executive Officer
Interamerican Bank, FSB
Miami, FL

Caren C. Gabriel
President and Chief Executive Officer
Ascend Federal Credit Union
Tullahoma, TN

Terry West
President and Chief Executive Officer
VyStar Credit Union
Jacksonville, FL

Robert R. Jones III
President and Chief Executive Officer
United Bank of Atmore
Atmore, AL

Douglas L. Williams
(National Representative)
President and Chief Executive Officer
Atlantic Capital Bank
Atlanta, GA

Miriam Lopez
President and Chief Lending Officer
Marquis Bank
Coral Gables, FL

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Human Capital
Tim Arnst
Senior Vice President
Universal Parks and Resorts
Orlando, FL

Anoop Mishra
Chief Operating Executive
Birmingham, AL

Ed Castile
Alabama Industrial Training
Montgomery, AL

Les Range
Regional Administrator
U.S. Department of Labor
Atlanta, GA

Melissa Elliott
Senior Vice President of Human Resources
Express Employment Professionals
Covington, LA

Ken Richards
Resource Mosaic
Atlanta, GA

Jerrold Hill
Vice President, Human Resources
Southern Company Gas
Atlanta, GA

Dwight Sandlin
Signature Homes
Birmingham, AL

Keith Jackson
Vice President, Human Resources
AT&T Services Inc.
Atlanta, GA

Veronica “Roni” Snyder
Career Professionals Inc.
Morristown, TN

Ann Machado
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Creative Staffing
Miami, FL

Mike Stockard
Executive Vice President
Elwood Staffing
Birmingham, AL



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Milestones and More
The Atlanta Fed
Atlanta Fed President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis Lockhart announced in September that he would
step down from his position effective February 28, 2017. After nearly 10 years at the Atlanta Fed, Lockhart
plans to continue to pursue interests in public policy, civic work, and private business. A search for his
successor began immediately. (See

Research and Monetary Policy
Recognizing the importance of understanding liquidity, the Atlanta Fed, through the
Center for Financial Innovation and Stability (CenFIS), assembled more than 200 market
practitioners, policymakers, and academic experts at Amelia Island, Florida, in early May for
the 21st Annual Financial Markets Conference.
In March, the former chief of the Bank of Japan visited the Atlanta Fed to discuss the
profound economic effects of a rapidly aging population. Professor Masaaki Shirakawa
said his country has been slow to seriously address the fiscal and economic problems this
demographic shift created.
Atlanta Fed economists published research on a range of timely matters including wages, inflation, the Chinese
economy, housing finance and mortgage markets, the labor market, financial stability, financial markets and
regulation, social insurance programs for the aged, and the effects of delinquent debt on mortality.
The Research team refreshed the Atlanta Fed’s labor force dynamics website. A key
component of the site is the “spider chart,” which gauges various aspects of the
labor market. Updates include a tool for looking at the main reasons behind changes
in labor force participation for different age groups. The Research department also
enriched the Wage Growth Tracker tool with additional historical data.
Atlanta Fed economists also introduced the Taylor Rule Utility in September. The new
tool allows users to craft their own tool to recommend interest rate policies. To help
you sort through the most common variations, the Taylor Rule Utility lets you choose from various measures for the
inflation gauge, inflation target, the natural real interest rate, and the resource gap.
The Community and Economic Development (CED) group and the Philadelphia Fed introduced a tool to track
philanthropic grants for community development—revealing which cities tend to get them and why. Following the
Money examines foundation grants across 366 U.S. metropolitan areas.
The CED also published research and held conferences on housing affordability issues, workforce development—in
particular, opportunity occupations—and community development finance.

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In partnership with Emory University, the Americas Center held its fifth annual international
economics workshop in December. Economists from leading universities and the Federal
Reserve System presented new research on a range of topics.
The Americas Center hosted its annual roundtable Brazil economic forecast event. The event
was co-sponsored with the Brazil-American Chamber and the World Affairs Council
of Atlanta.
The Americas Center and North Carolina State University co-hosted “FATF@25,” a workshop
on anti-money laundering measures. The meeting featured presentations by political
scientists and policy analysts from eight countries on the latest trends in combating money
laundering and terrorism financing.

Education and Public Outreach
More than 10,000 teachers participated in economic education workshops,
webinars, and presentations. Attendance at guided tours at the District’s museums
increased 20 percent over the 2015 number. Through its economic education
programs, the team met a strategic objective to reach 75 percent of high schools in
the Sixth District that are identified as inner city, majority-minority, or girls’ schools.
Online programs of the economic education team had a strong 2016. Page views of
the Classroom Economist, Extra Credit, Katrina’s Classroom, and Atlanta Fed lessons
and activities more than doubled from 2015, topping 505,000. Student enrollments
in classroom videos rose 34 percent to more than 138,000.
The economic education team distributed more than 65,000 printed infographics
posters to teachers in 48 states and the Netherlands.
In the ECONversations series of webcasts, Atlanta Fed experts discussed subjects
including the economic growth of small cities, the effects of an aging workforce,
first-time homebuyer demographics, and real estate conditions. A special edition
addressed how a Reserve Bank president is selected and fielded questions
from viewers.
Six Public Affairs Forums brought leading authorities to Atlanta Fed offices to offer economic perspectives on public
policy issues. Forums explored topics including the economics of college sports, the connection between human
resource practices and big data, and perspectives on the U.S.-Cuba relationship.
The Atlanta Fed Speakers Bureau facilitated employees sharing research, data, and information with 159
community groups and professional associations.


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

The Retail Payments Office (RPO) successfully implemented the first of three phased
enhancements as part of an industry-wide initiative to expand expedited clearing and
settlement of Automated Clearinghouse (ACH) transactions. This initiative supports
the Federal Reserve’s long-term Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payments System
Additional SIPS-related milestones included promoting industry awareness for
transaction messaging standards that will enhance cross-border payments efficiency,
and working across the Federal Reserve System to strengthen the security and resiliency of the System’s financial
services operations.
The RPO partnered with the Retail Payments Risk Forum and Board of Governors staff to complete the sixth triennial
Federal Reserve Payments Study, with initial results released in December.
Internally, the RPO continued to make progress on numerous automation initiatives that will fuel check and ACH
processing efficiencies, strengthen resiliency, and enhance responsiveness to market demands.

Supervision and Regulation
The Supervision and Regulation division continued efforts to enhance its risk
assessment capabilities and to integrate this perspective into its supervisory
programs. For example, as a result of concerns in certain segments of the
commercial real estate market, examiners conducted a horizontal review focused
on state member banks with heightened commercial real estate loan growth or
concentrations. The results led to a number of recommendations to enhance risk
management activities in this area.
The division continued to promote efforts to inform the banking industry and general public through a variety of
forums, publications, and live events, including the ViewPoint Live webcasts.
The division’s annual Banking Outlook Conference featured keynote speakers and
panel discussions on an array of banking and regulatory issues. The topics included
the changing risk environment for financial institutions, commercial real estate
markets and the impact of recent standards and regulation, technological innovation
and its potential effect on traditional banks, and the national economic outlook.

Corporate Citizenship
Sixty-three Atlanta Fed employees served on the boards of directors or advisory
councils for more than 100 nonprofit organizations working to address critical
community needs like access to affordable housing, services for the homeless, and
job training and placement for low- to moderate-income individuals.
Employees contributed 2,000 hours of volunteer time reading to students, offering
career advice and résumé and interviewing assistance, preparing and delivering
meals to seniors, cleaning up public spaces, and donating new and used goods to
benefit veterans, seniors, and youth.

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Financial Statements
The Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks annually prepare and release audited financial statements
reflecting balances (as of December 31) and income and expenses for the year then ended.

Audit Statement
The Federal Reserve Board engaged KPMG to audit the 2016 combined and individual financial statements of the
Reserve Banks.*
In 2016, KPMG also conducted audits of internal controls over financial reporting for each of the Reserve Banks.
Fees for KPMG services totaled $6.7 million. To ensure auditor independence, the Board requires that KPMG be
independent in all matters relating to the audits. Specifically, KPMG may not perform services for the Reserve
Banks or others that would place it in a position of auditing its own work, making management decisions on behalf
of the Reserve Banks, or in any other way impairing its audit independence. In 2016, the Bank did not engage
KPMG for any non-audit services.
* In addition, KPMG audited the Office of Employee Benefits of the Federal Reserve System (OEB), the Retirement
Plan for Employees of the Federal Reserve System (System Plan), and the Thrift Plan for Employees of the Federal
Reserve System (Thrift Plan). The System Plan and the Thrift Plan provide retirement benefits to employees of the
Board, the Federal Reserve Banks, the OEB, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Financial Statements Link


Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

Each year, the Office of Minority and Women Inclusion (OMWI) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta provides
a congressional report summarizing the office’s actions with regard to the requirements under Section 342 of
the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. This report highlights the work OMWI
performed in the previous year to take the affirmative steps that the Dodd-Frank Act addresses—specifically,
ensuring workforce and supplier diversity, as well as advancing financial literacy in inner-city, majority/minority, and
girls’ schools. The Atlanta Fed undertakes these efforts in the Sixth Federal Reserve District. (See

The Atlanta Fed’s annual reports highlight the work of the Atlanta Fed over the preceding year. Reports before 2012
were printed publications, and many of these are available online on our website in PDF. Beginning in 2011, we
have published online-only annual reports. These contain topical essays, dynamic charts, and videos and imagery,
as well as links to the Bank’s financial statements and lists of our current directors and officers. View past reports:

About the Atlanta Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks in the United States that, with the
Board of Governors in Washington, DC, make up the Federal Reserve System—the nation’s central bank. Since
its establishment by an act of Congress in 1913, the Federal Reserve System’s primary role has been to foster a
sound financial system and a healthy economy. To advance this goal, the Atlanta Fed helps formulate monetary
policy, supervises banks and bank and financial holding companies, and provides payment services to depository
institutions and the federal government. Through its six offices in Atlanta, Birmingham, Jacksonville, Miami,
Nashville, and New Orleans, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta serves the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which
comprises Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

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Annual Report Staff
Mike Chriszt
Vice President and Public Affairs Officer
Robin Ratliff
Assistant Vice President and Public Information Officer
Nancy Condon
Managing Editor, Content and Publishing Director
Carole Starkey
Web Communications Director
Charles Davidson
Karen Jacobs
Peter Hamilton
Darryl Kennedy
Odie Swanegan
Graphic Designers
David Fine

Eric Blanks
Michael Zavarello
Web Developers
Jean Tate
Cassie Gage
Marketing and Social Media
Mark McElroy
Creative Services Director
Graham Justice
Jason Palmer
Video Producers
Dennis Lockhart
President and CEO
Dave Altig
Mike Bryan
John Robertson
Advisers and Contributors
Jeanne Zimmermann
Web Editor

Branches & Offices
Atlanta Office
1000 Peachtree Street N.E.
Atlanta, Georgia 30309-4470

Miami Branch
9100 N.W. 36th Street
Doral, Florida 33178-2425

Birmingham Branch
524 Liberty Parkway
Birmingham, Alabama 35242-7531

Nashville Branch
333 Commerce Street
Suite 1000
Nashville, Tennessee 37201

Jacksonville Branch
800 Water Street
Jacksonville, Florida 32204

New Orleans Branch
525 St. Charles Avenue
New Orleans, Louisiana 70130-3480



Feder al Re s er ve Bank of At lant a 2016 Annual Repor t

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