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LIBRARY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA FROM T h e Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta interacts with the public at large in @ three distinct but related ways. The President and Chief Executive Officer of the Bank, Robert P. Forrestal, r e p 4 larly participates in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy for the nation through his service on the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal policymaking arm. The Federal Reserve also is empowered to supervise and regulate cer ctain financial institutions and to assist these and other depository institutions in troubled circumstances. Recently, s System and Reserve Bank efforts in this direction have been reviewed and significantly intensified. Aside from sharing in the System's monetary polk acymaking and regulatory functions, the Atlanta Fed, along with other Reserve Banks, provides important financial 4services to depository institutions and to the U.S.Treasury. This past year we introduced several enhancements to these services. In all of our activities =the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta emphasized what we regard as our Bank's core values: integrity, quality service, and cost effectiveness. a After reviewing how the U.S. economy fared in 1985 and outlining its prospects and those of the Sixth District +for this year, the essay that forms the core of this report attempts to acquaint readers with the central banks roles as monetary policymaker and financial 'system regulator. Additionally, it highlights issues that bear on how these fune tions are performed. While monetary @policyis a powerful and flexible tool, this report points out that there are liink tations on what the Fed can do to foster the ultimate goal of sustained, non> *inflationary economic growth through $ measures at its disposal. These limita tions are imposed by the nature of certain problems, including potential vulnerabilities that could affect our \j, financial system; growing sentiment in favor of protectionism; the need for "actual progress in reducing the federal budget deficit; and, more generally, social attitudes that threaten the outlook J for lasting economicgrowth. Ultimately, ' 3 5 -L T H E BOARDROOM resolution of these issues rests with the private sector-not only businesses but also individuals such as those who read this report. A capsule review of last y e d s major developments in various Atlanta Fed operations supplements the essay and is followed by a statistical summary of earnings and operations for 1985. We hope readers will find this annual report both interesting and informative. Whatever your link to the Bank, greater familiarity with our activities should broaden understanding of the Federal Reserve and thereby enhance your rela tionship with our institution. We further hope that this report will set an agenda of issues to be addressed by those with whom the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta deals-depository institutions, the U.S.Treasury, our employees, and the public at large. Atlanta Fed Chairman JohnH.Weitnauer, Jr., and President Robert P. Fonastal I '1 CHALLENGES TO ECONOMIC GROWTH U.S. Economic Performance in 1985 American economic expansion slowed dramatically last year compared with the rapid pace experienced in 1983 and 1984. Gross national product (GNP], the total output of goods and services produced, expanded by about 2 112 percent in 1985;1984's annual average growth rate exceeded 6 percent. Some slowdown was to be expected, of course During the early phases of recovery from a recession the economy tends to grow much faster than later in the business cycle. In fact, if such slowing did not occur, then inflation could once again become a primary concern and negate many of the benefits of faster growth. Nonetheless, the degree and duration of the slackening, which actually began in 1984 and continued intefi mittently into 1985, was rather p r e nounced Not until the second half of 1985 did GNP resume growth in the 3 percent range that seems to be our nation's longrange potential. Even then, many sectors remained sluggish. With slower economic growth during much of the first half of 1985, it was understandable that the unemployment rate did not dip as markedly as it had in the previous year. For six months the jobless rate remained at 7.3 percent, dropping only to 6.9 percent by y e d s end On the brighter side, inflation proved even more moderate than had been expected In 1985 consumer prices increased by an average of 3.5 percent, compared with a 4.2 percent increase in 1984. One restraint on 1985's overall GNP expansion was rooted in the interne tional sector. Foreign suppliers met a substantial portion of the growth in consumer purchases and business investment in equipment. Meanwhile, American manufacturers and farmers who had come to depend heavily on exports were priced out of foreign m m kets by the relatively high value of the U.S. dollar. Domestic production colt sequently languished; employment in manufacturing actually declined for six consecutive months in the first half of the year, and growth in personal income slowed despite a sustained expansion in the service sector. Against the backdrop of a relatively accomme dative monetary policy and ample sup plies of credit, interest rates declined markedly, but these factors could not overcome the difficulties confronting a significant portion of industry and a& culture. At the same time that it damp ened GNP growth, the strength of the dollar helped check price increases. A flood of less expensive foreign goods reduced the costs paid by American businesses and consumers for many items. Lowmpriced imports also forced many American producers to be extremely competitive in their pricing. Several factors should contribute to somewhat faster growth in 1986. The fall in oil prices probably will dampen' inflation and spur economic activity generally. The decline in the U.S. dolI d s value on foreign exchange marketswhich began in early 1985,should lead to a modest turnaround in the trade situation as the year progresses. Rapid money growth and the attendant decline in credit costs, such as occurred in 1985, often are followed by an acceler ation in activity. Some sources of urn+ certainty remain, such as capital investment by business and the effects of fiscal policy. Nonetheless, when sbmgths and weaknesses are considered together,* there appears to be sufficient momen tum to sustain the expansion at a pace close to our potential or even to experkence slightly faster growth for a while. Outlook for 1986 Sources of Strength. Lower oil pricesshould boost economic activity generally, both in the United States and internationally, since energy is such an impor tant input With reduced energy costs, many businesses' profitability should improve, and net farm income also may rise since much- fertilizer is derivedfrom petroleum. Consumers, too, will have more to spend on discretionary items. Along with lower energy costs, several factors should make consumer Moderate improvement is likely in 1986. For the year as a whole GNP may expand somewhat more than 3 percent. Unemployment should decline further, but dramatic progress on this front does not seem probable. Given the record proportion of Americans in the work force, even a sustained drop into the 6 percent range would constitute respectable progress. Fortunately, inflation should remain subdued this year. -r rl National Product Growth 84 ? I -? L spending a s o m e of modest growth in 1986 despite the high level of debt incurred last year. Steadily advancing employment augurs well for household budgets. Stock and bond market rallies also have significantly enhanced the net worth position of consumers, either directly or through pension funds and the like, and this rise in consumer wealth eventuallyshould work to inmase s p e d The international sector also should improve. By the end of last year the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar had fallen 25 percent, on a tradeweighted basis against the currencies of 10 other a advanced economies, from its February 1985 peak. Since changes in exchange rates can take from six months to a year to affect foreign trade patterns, some upturn in exports should begin to a p pear in the coming months. This development would be especially welcome 4 to the many manufacturers and farmers whose foreign markets have atrophied in concert with the rising exchange value of the dollar. At the same time & that U.S. exports grow, demand for imports should start to taper as the dollds decline makes them costlier to American consumers. As a result, h a d pressed domestic producers should experience some revival of orders and sales. e The rapid growth in money and credit during 1985 may have a positive impact on several sectors of the economy, 8 particularly consumer purchases of housing and durable goods. Mortgage interest rates fell considerably toward year end, reaching their lowest level t since 1979. In addition to assisting home buyers, the lower credit costs associated with this monetary expane sion have made it less expensive for builders to undertake new projects. Although much of the housing demand that had been deferred in the early 1980s already has been met, in a shmgtb ened economy many consumers prob ably will want to “trade up.” By the end 4 of 1985 residential building was showing signs of renewed strength. The pent-up demand for durable goods such 40 50 Value of U. S. Dollar Tradeweighted Against 10 Countries. 30 - Percent Change F’mm December 1971 20 - *l%&hm, unlted Kingdom. clo.da. G3rmany. Switzerland Netbalsnds. France, Italy, Japan. Sweden 10 - 76 78 80 82 84 86 a * as cars likewise largely has been met, but the average age of automobiles owned by Americans remains much higher than was usual during most of the post-World War I1 period In an environment of noninflationary growth and lower interest rates, Americans conceivably could begin replacing their automobiles more frequently, as they once did Aside from lessening production costs, lower interest rates also reduce the cost structure of business in general, not only now but also in the future. Many corporations, for example, have been calling in high-rate bonds issued in the early 1980s and refinancing at significantly reduced rates. Additionally, stable short-term credit costs and the d e preciation of the dollar last year should help ease some of the strains on the nation’s fmancial institutions, especially those that have heavy concentrations of loans to less developed countries (LDCs). Because such nations are now better able to service their debt burdens, institutions whose loan portfolios are heavily weighted by LDC debt should see their financial situation improve as well. Areas of Uncertainty. Despite these favorable factors, some imbalances exist that may retard growth for a while. The outlook for capital spending by business is clouded Surveys indicate a M 5 scaling back of business capital im vestment plans for 1986. The favorable tax treatment adopted in 1981 contrib uted to substantial overbuildhg of strue tures, particularly office buildings, in many areas of the country. High vacancy rates and rental discounts seem likely to dampen enthusiasm for initiating new projects despite today’s much lower interest rates. Uncertainty about future modifications in the tax treatment of investment, including the pos sibility that certain changes could be retroactive, also may be discouraging investment plans. In addition, with excess productive capacity of around 20 percent-a higher level than earlier in the expansion-many businesses are unwilling to expand their investment in plants and equipment. The public sector is difficult to class ify as either a s o m e of strength or weakness in 1986. Although the effects of the GrammRudman budget act are uncertain at this point, this legislation holds the promise of diminishing the large federal budget deficits. Since this reduction probably will take the form of lower federal spending, some of the stimulus that helped propel economic growth during the past few years also should 1HOWWIX,minimal ~ h h k age in the deficit is likely in the 1986 fiscal year. Whafs more, because of the nature of defense contracts and commitments, the momentum from the I J’ I increased defense spending-much of which was implemented only in 1985is likely to be sustained through 1986. Thus, government spending, particw lady for defense, should continue to add vigor to manufacturing in 1986. Nonetheless, the legislation indicates that greater reductions should begin by the fall and continue through the rest of the decade. On the other hand, diminished federal borrowing in financial markets would offset to some degree the adverse effect of reduced fiscal stimulus occasioned by GrammRudman With less “crow& ing out” by the public sector, the pres sure on interest rates and financial markets, which is created by expectations that deficits will continue indefb nitely, may subside. This development would establish a better climate for businesses and also foster more COD sumer spending. Should substantial reductions in the deficit appear to be developing, the dollar could decline in a noninflationary manner because re sources would be freed up by a smaller government sector. Prices are a third uncertainty. Some pickup in inflation is possible in 1986. The significant drop in the dollar‘s exchange rate means that the price of imports, on which Americans have come to depend so heavily, is likely to rise somewhat. This is not cause for undue concern, though, because prices probably will not rise noticeably until later in the year. Even then, such increases could be moderate in view of the nation’s excess capacity and the likelihood that many foreign producers will act to maintain their participation in U.S. markets. Moreover, oil prices recently have fallen substantially. Lower energy costs should work to offset the effects of potentidy higher import prices. Outlook for the Southeast The nation’s performance largely determines the outlook for the Sixth Federal Reserve District,which includes Alabama, Florida, Georgia and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. and technological for some time. Thus lowever, some special regional factors are at work. Defense spending should be a plus for many southeastern areas. The anticipated effect of lower credit costs on sales of durable goods should prove a boon to the region’s increasing number of vehicle assembly plants, such as those in Tennessee and Georgia, and perhaps to Alabama’s important tire industry. Another favorable factor in this region is population growth. Many parts of the Southeast are likely to continue to attract people from other sections of the United States, and this influx of new residents will fuel demand for housing as well as the ongoing expansion of services, ranging from movie theaters, restaurants, and department stores to doctors‘, dentists‘, and lawyers‘ offices. Traditional Manufacturins The do& I d s decline should help some of the region’s traditional economic activities such as agriculture, textiles, apparel, and lumber, which have been hard hit by import competition. However, the current plight of certain distressed see tors, for example, lumber and farming, developed over several years and is unlikely to be reversed completely in the near term Employment in the textile industry has been declining for well over a decade, even during the 1970s when the U. S. dollar was widely regad ed as “undervalued” on foreign currency markets. To compete in todafs interna tional markets, the textile industry has been growing more capital intensive textile mills should not be expected to resume their role as major employers, even though their corporate balance sheets may begin to look healthier. In fact, the movement of workers from low-wage, import-sensitive industries’ into other sectors with more growth potential and greater opportunities for higher wages should prove beneficial, in the long run. Energy. Overall prospects for the oil and natural gas industries, which are concentrated in Louisiana and southern‘ Mississippi, are more clouded. WorlcL wide demand has been slack relative to supplies, and the decline in oil prices, has been substantial, rendering the n e w term outlook for drill@ and exploration bleak. Still, lower prices could generate significant growth in demand for oil,’ natural gas, and petroleum by-products such as chemicals Modest improvement for refiners and makers of petroleum-, based products may therefore be on the horizon Construction. Another regionally important industry that seems destined’ to undergo some retrenchment is nonresidential construction Despite the large number of people and companiesa that have been moving to the Southeast, many cities have more office space than current demand warrants. Some have a glut of hotel rooms as well. This overbuilding is reflected in high vacancy rates and a proliferation of rental dia counts. The number of new department, stores and shopping centers planned for certain southeastern cities may also be outstripping the potential for growth in consumer spending over the next4 few years Accordingly, some slowdown seems inevitableeven desirable-to allow existing supplies to be absorbed. The RuraYUrban Disparity. The southeastern economy’s sources of strength-defense spending, inventory rebuilding, population growth, and the* dollds decline- suggest that Florida and Georgia will enjoy the brightest prospects in 1986. Louisiana, with its, less diversified economy, will continue to struggle. Tennessee, Alabama, and aF 8 t e probably Mississippi are likely to fall in the middle. Generally, cities should fare better than rural areas since most population growth is taking place in urban and suburban areas. Rural areas not only depend more heavily on culture but also face the challenge of fin* new sources of jobs for many pannanently displaces apparel and other manufacturing workers. The outlook for Atlanta and Nashville is especially promising. - ' Issues Confronting Policymakers and the Public The "moderate" expansion envisioned for the nation and region in 1986 is respectable considering that trends in productivity and resource gains limit * longrun U.S. growth to about 3 per cent Moreover, this year should usher in more balanced performance than was experienced last year. Americans face important issues, however, that make this outlook less certain and pose special dilemmas for economic policy makers. Financial System Conditions. One such issue pertains to America's f i n e 1 cial system. That system is fundamea tally strong and resilient but certain lingering problems remain a matter of concern. Debt owed by LDCs continues e to burden many U.S. financial instituMons. Substantial declines in interest rates and in the fore@exchange value B of the U.S. dollar enable borrower countries and their lending institutions to restructure and service this debt more easily, since much of it is dollar *' ted. However, lower oil prices will probably outweigh the effects of lower interest rates on o&exporting s LDCs that are heavily indebted and on their U.S. creditors. In addition, the dollds depreciation will make some LDCs' products more expensive in this 9 country and could reduce the export earnings and growth of developing naMons. America's colleagues among the industrial nations can help take up the potential slack in LDCs' export markets. Recent signs of stronger growth in a + i ! , 1 Europe give reason to expect that the fundamentals are in place for such a transition, yet these countries also must exhiMtthepolltical~toassume a larger share of LDC exports If, instead, other advanced economies do not sus tain and improve their economic e x p e sions or if they seek to protect their own favorite industries, the likelihood of continued progress on the part of LDCs would be diminished. Such stalled progress would exacer bate other problems that confront the u.s financial system, especially in view of the high degree of leverage that characterizes all the major segments of the U.S. economy-consumers, govem men@ and businesses. Public sector debt already has been described. In& viduals borrowed heavily in 1986 to finance their spending. Although savings rates are not as low as once thought they do not compare favorably with previous U.S. rates or with rates in many other advanced countries. In re cent years, the corporate sector's lever age has skyrocketed with the surge of takeovers and mergers. Many of these deals have been financed by debt issued in the form of low-grade investment bonds, and the already troubled thrift industry has been prominent among the investors in such "junk bonds." Beyond the problems posed by LDC debt and leveraged buyouts, many financial institutions are encumbered by farm and energy loans In addition, 12 r- because of the existing surfeit of offices, condominiums, and apartments across the country, real estate lending also could pose problems for certain types of institutions, particularly savings and loan associations. A sudden economic disruption could have detrimental effects on the stability of our financial system. Thus, policymakers must be extremely watchful of developments in LDCs, in the farm, energy, and real estate sectors, and with respect to the continuing use of leveraged buyouts. Weaknesses in the banking community were manifested last year by 120 bank failures-the largest number since the establishment of federal deposit insurance. This number could well be matched, if not exceeded, in 1988. The vast majority of these failed banks were and will probably continue to be small community institutions. While such failures do not significantly influence the broad financial markets, they can have an adverse impact on local areas. Containing the pressures that can arise when banks fail is a primary objective of public policy. For these reasons, the Federal Reserve, in its role as the nation's central bank, acts to ensure that the marketplace remains orderly and that institutional adjustments occur within a stable financial system. During 1985 the Federal Reserve System undertook a major effort to review its supervisory framework and Personal Savings Rate 3-Month Moving Average s a o l l . n r ~ h d h W h p e C s n t 8- 4 - 0 I I 76 I I 78 1 I 80 I 1 82 I I 84 I 86 4 the resources devoted to those respom sibilities. Current requirements of the marketplace highlighted the need for more concentrated supervisory efforts, procedures, and guidelines. Although numerous policy and procedural changes were set in place last year, the new p m gram consists essentially of five reforms (1)strengthening existing standards, (2) identifying problems earlier, (3) cor recting existing weaknesses, (4) corn municating examination findings more clearly, and (5)increasing cooperation with state supervisory agencies. strengthening existing standards will take several forms. New minimum capital requirements have been adopted and further refinements were proposed toward year end Improved techniques are being developed for measuring bank holding company cash flow and liquidity for incorporation into the inspection process, and formal guidelines relating to acceptable loan concentration levels and loan loss provisions were added to the examination function. Finally, the Board of Governors issued guidelines regarding dividend policies for organizations experiencing earnings problems. To detect problems sooner, large banks and bank holding companies under the Board‘s supervision will be examined more frequently. A policy of expanded financial statement reporting and increased off-premise surveillance also was put into place. The System is developing strategies to improve supervisory responses to banking emer gencies, such as those that occurred in Ohio and Maryland during 1985. Com tinued efforts are underway to enhance the training and skills of examiners, who remain the best early warning system for identifying and correcting problem situations. Measures to increase awareness and accountability of bank and bank holding company directors should facilitate the correction of problems. Directors of institutions found to have problems will be required to take a more active role in preparing and enforcing reme dial actions. To underscore the seriouw ness of examinations, senior Federal Reserve officials will be more actively involved in presenting examination re sults to the boards of large or troubled institutions. To assure effective communication and to emphasize director$ responsibilities to take corrective action, the Fed will routinely provide reports summarizing examination findings to individual W o r n of institutions found to have problems Currently, the System is forging a stronger link between examinations and applications processing: for example, the Federal Reserve will ensure that the most current condition is confirmed, through omsite evaluations where necessary, before approving significant applications. Finally, programs now are being developed to improve the Fed’s inter action with and reliance on state agem cies so as to better utiliie resources and eliminate duplication of effort among supervisory bodies. This effort by the Federal Reserve to fortify the banking industry and minimize the effect of disruptions represents a major initiative. The Atlanta Fed has strongly s u p ported its development Protectionism. Another problem, and one far less subject to Federal Reserve policy influence, is protectiom ism. Some shift away from protectionism is likely since President Reagan vetoed a major protectionist bill and the d o h % substantial depreciation last year should ease some strains on affected industries Significant progress toward reducing federal deficits also would allow the dollds further decline without straining domestic capacity or rekindling infla tion. Nonetheless, continuing political pressures to enact protectionist policies remain a matter of grave concern. The economic arguments against pro tectionism are well known. Whether in the form of quotas and tariffs or the seemingly more benign form of subsidies, these measures bring advantages to a small group of employees and employers at the expense of the vast majority of consumers, who must pay more for the goods they purchase. Usually any benefits are short-lived and merely postpone inevitable adjustments in affected firms and industries. Protectionist measures by one country are almost always followed by retalia tory actions on the part of other nations, and the net result is a decline in world trade and economic activitv. In effect protectionism chokes off foreign m i kets that have the potential to become major customers for goods in which the United States has a comparative advan tage. Beyond these familiar economic argw ments are certain social or moral objeo tions to those sentiments that give rise to support for protectionist measures. This apparent political groundswell bespeaks a shortsighted approach to public policy, a lack of vision that can erode the social values underpinning America’s laws and policies. Efforts to protect domestic industry against for eign competition transfer to future gem erations the burden of making needed adjustments. U. S. policymakers, businesses, and citizens should be taking necessary steps to get the natioxis ecom omy “into shape,” for these actions would leave today’s youth the legacy of a healthier economy- one in which more workers earned greater real incomes, one based on a mix of higher valueadded economic activities suited to the world’s leading economy. In contrast, adoption of protectionist POL cies would allow the United States to remain slack for a while longer, shifting responsibility for the inevitable transition onto the next generation. Social Ethics Unfortunately, the social shortsightedness underlying sup port for protectionism extends beyond a single issue or ideology and thus poses a considerable threat to the United States as a whole. The term, “megem eration,” often used to refer to those who came of age in the 1970s, emphasizes how the attitudes of that group differ from the more socially concerned 4 values of their 1960s‘ counterparts. A number of programs designed to imple ment the earlier social goals proved to be far costlier than originally anticipated or even misguided, and so natw , . b d US. ForeignRade I 'bade of Goods and Services rally the social pendulum has reversed. However, the United States now seems to be drifting too far in the other dire0 tion. Evidence suggests excessive concern with present well-being and an abming disregard for how certain PO€ides might affect other segments of society and future generations. Such attitudes, which characterize all too many individuals, are apparent in the business community as well. Recent years have seen many instances of fraudulent and otherwise illegal or implicitly unefhical behavior in the private sector. This phenomenon has been evident in a variety of professions, ransing fFom defense contractors and stockb m b to government secuntm dealers, accountants, and bankera The willing ntws of these people to compromise the most fmdamental principles of honesty and even to break the law for the sake of immediate gain jeopardizes the trust on which our society is based The importance of trust in the fincial industry is widely recognized. D i s rupted trust shakes depositors' confidence and thus can quickly damage even sound institutions. Trust is impor tant in all economic dealings, though, for when it suffers, commercial rela tions must be rebuilt. Usually this re building process leads to a maze of red tape, paperwork, bureaucracy, and in some cases regulation The more exten sive the maze becomes, the more it detracts from efficiency and flexibility, eventually hampering economic growth and prosperity. Mounting incidents of dishonesty also sully the reputation of businessingeneralIndivid~inturn, are tempted to sacrifice moral standards for the sake of short-term personal gain. The shortsightedness and self-centeredness that characterize the e m nomic behavior of many individuals take a number of forms. Most American consumers have been enjoying a high standard of living, apparently ignoring the heavy toll their spending spree levies on certain groups. These segments particularly include farmers and workers in industries that are especially .' export-dependent or import-sensitive. We also have grown indifferent to the consequences of our actions on future generations. Seemingly, many Americans do not understand that both our spending binge of recent years and the current problems in manufacturing and farming are rooted in the nation's relua tance to save more personally and to bring our spiralling public debt under control. Those who do understand this relationship appear unwilling to alter their patterns of gratification until events beyond their control force a change. Although the effects of large strua tural federal budget deficits are complex, some basic impacts are readily comprehensible. In addition to their link to the current hardships being felt by farmers, manufacturers, and some financial institutions, deficits transfer an onerous responsibility to future generations. The huge volume of inter nal and external debt that we as a nation are accumulating eventually must be paid back. Most likely our children will have to shoulder this bur den just at the time when they reach their peak spending years. To service and possibly retire this debt, they will have to save more, in many cases for going such major purchases as homes, education, and the like. Thus, our re cent bout of consumption will come at their heavy expense. The United States has gone deeply into debt in the past, especially in times of national military emergencies, there by forcing future generations to fiance 9 current needs. Most of that financing, however, was drawn from domestic sources. By contrast, today's huge budget deficits are being funded to a significant extent by foreigners. In 1984 the equivalent of onequarter of our net domestic needs for investment and deficit financing were met by funds from other countries. Therefore, servicing the 19809' public debt will redistribute income not simply from one group of Americans to another but also from the United States to investors from abroad It is easy to blame others for our nation's problems. Many people a W bute the weakness of American textile, apparel, and steel industries to the low wage levels axid government subsidies that prevail in many LDCs. Others charge flagging U.S. export growth to nontariff barriers erected by Japan and Europe. Some even place the responsibility with Congress. It is true that our legislators failed for many years to address the deficit issue; however, co* gressional delegates are elected and highly sensitive to their constituents' demands. If we as citizens, members of various trade and professional organizations, or opinion leaders in our own right, had opposed these deficits sooner and more forcefully, Congress likely would have taken action earlier than last December, when it enacted the Gramm-Rudmanlaw. This legislation is an important step in the right direction, but it is only the beginning. As of yet, it merely holds the promise of deficit reduction; only minimal spending cutbacks are probable in the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, the burden of U.S debt continues to soar, as does the eventual pain of transition to a less leveraged economy. The real responsibility for tackling these i s sues lies with each of us. We must make our legislators aware that widespread popular support exists for deficit redue tion. Additionally, Americans must gener ate more personal savings. In this way we can ensure the availability of ade quate funds for future research on p d ucts and production techniques, for construction of more modern factories, and for replacing outmoded equipment with machines and methods that will enable the United States to compete more effectively in world markets. We also must begin to ask less of govern ment and to rely more on ourselves and on private institutions to solve many of today’s complex problems. Each of us, as individuals and as representatives of organizations, must be prepared to sa0 rifice some of our dependence on the public sector-for subsidies, protee tion, financial assistance, and possibly even medical and employment insur ance. Instead, we must take greater responsibslity for our own retirement and health and for the efficiency of U.S. industries and companies as they face an increasingly global marketplace. This shift in social values is not likely to be painless, for it will require that we live less for the pleasure of the present Ultimately, however, it should result in higher living standards for us and our children, fewer disruptions and dislocations over time, and a more prosperous and competitive nation, If we fail to take these personal measures, Congress surely will find it more diffk cult to cut federal spending and to reduce future budget deficits. Conclusion Resolving all these challenges will be a formidable task but one assisted by an economic context that is generally favorable. The expansion is likely to be sustained in 1986, and some of the 10 nation’s troubled sectors seem ready to rally. The Federal Reserve will continue to seek policy approaches that promote 4 economic growth, price stability, and the soundness of the U.S.and interne tional financial systems. With the Fed, fostering such an environment, indh viduals and businesses should find they can take a longer view than is possible in a more volatile setting, where uncer I tainty creates pressure to maximize short-run gains. Yet the Fed and other policymakers cannot achieve these goals on their own. American busineases must pursue farsighted measures to deal with the complexities of global economic integration and other issuesr that have been reviewed here. The support of enlightened citizens also will be necessary for the nation to‘ surmount its present problems. If we all do what we can in our personal and professional lives to promote more judk cious economic thinking and c o r n c sponding public policies, we can help launch the U.S. economy on a path of enduring and healthy growth. V - 1 I Highlights of 1985 ReturndRejects Processing. New computer equipment was installed at Core Values each branch in 1985 to facilitate returnitem and reject-item processing. This The FReserve ~ a n kof ~ t l a n t a new equipment, which provides the articulated a set of corporate goals that reflect the commitments and objectives enhanced capabilities needed to expand service levels in these areas, will conof its staff. Three values-integrity, tribute significantly to the efficiency of quality service, and cost effectivenesscheck operations. constitute the heart of this philosophy. Integrity means that the Bank will be fair, honest, and impartial and will LargeDollar Return Notification. conduct its business with high standards Depository institutions’ practice of to maintain strong public confidence. delaying withdrawals from depositors‘ Quality service indicates that all Bank accounts for extended periods received staff are to provide exemplary service, significant public and congressional with emphasis on reliability and re exposure last year. Responding to the sponsiveness to customers, constituenta banking community‘s concerns over and each other. Cost effectiveness sug potential risk of loss if “hold” periods gests that resources should be managed were reduced the Board of Governors prudently to maintain maximum pro adopted an amendment to Regulation J ductivity and efficiency. to improve the system of notification for nonpayment of checks processed through the Federal Reserve in amounts of $2,500 or more. At the same time, * Payments Services the Federal Reserve began offering a notification service to help payor instiVolume and Prices. The volume of tutions meet the new requirements, various payments services provided by which became effective October 1, 4the Atlanta Fed continued to grow in 1985. In providing this service, Reserve 1985. The Sixth District processed 2.3 Banks are assuming liability for makbillion checks, far more than any other ing the proper notification within p r e Reserve Bank and about 8 percent more * than the Atlanta Fed processed in 1984. scribed time limits. This amendment should improve the timeliness and reliIn the electronic payments area, average ability of notification and thereby re daily wire transfer originations grew 4 duce the financial risk to the institution ,percent, and total commercial auto of first deposit. Eventually, this change mated clearinghouse (ACH] volume in should assist depository institutions in creased about 27 percent from 1984 to reducing the length of holds sometimes 1985. In securities services, average placed on deposited funds. monthly definitive safekeeping receipts increased almost 4 percent, and total noncash items collected grew 13 per cent. Owing to continued growth in the Payments System Risk On May 17, volume of payments services as well as 1985, the Board of Governors issued a ongoing strong productivity and cost policy statement on the control and efficiency, the District will be able to reduction of risks to the Federal Reserve * maintain most 1986 prices at 1985 levels and to depository institutions particiand can lower some prices. However, pating in largedollar wire transfer sya selected price increases will be imple tems. The policy, scheduled to become mented for nonautomated ACH services. effective on March 27, 1986, calls on Sixth District-controlled prices are the depository institutions to reduce the lowest in the Federal Reserve System. credit risks associated with their partic- 11 ipation in these systems. Furthermore, the policy defines the role that the Federal Reserve and other financial institution supervisors will play in and counseling monitoring, -xe depository institutions on these matters. The policy encourages each depository institution that incurs daylight over drafts to adopt voluntarily a “cros* system sender net debit cap.” The cap represents the maximum net debit that a depository institution may incur at any one time on all of the largedollar wire transfer systems (Fedwire and each private networkJ in which it partie ipates. The policy sets limits based on creditworthiness, operational controls, and credit policies and procedures. To acquaint depository institutions with this new policy, the Sixth District held 18 seminars attended by representatives of over 300 depository institutions throughout the Southeast. Product Development. One of the Sixth District‘s primary goals is to be a leader in providing payments services in all areas-checks, electronic payments, and securities. As a result, emphasis is placed on developing high quality, efficient, and technologically advanced services to meet our customers‘ needs. The Atlanta branch is one of three Federal Reserve offices participating in a check truncation pilot p r o gram. Phase I of the program, involving the capture, storage, and retrieval of items drawn on institutions within the area of the pilot program, was imple mented in 1985. Development, conversion, and expansion of our electronic payments and information delivery network, Fedwire, to depository institution$ microcomputer work stations continued in 1985. Services currently or soon to be available through Fedwire include transfer of funds and securities, electronic origination and receipt of ACH entries, check-return item notification, account infomation, Treasury-tender subscrip tions, cash-order requests, and financial I I 4 rate information. The District also implemented eight securities services enhancements in 1985, including magnetic tape and microfiche listings of holdings, notification of matured bonds, separate bond-&transit accounts, im terest and principal statements, and subaccounts. Supervision and Regulation Mergers and Acquisitions. In 1985 nearly 350 applications from institutions seeking changes in structure or operation were submitted to the Atlanta Fed. The Sixth District was the only one in the System to experience an increase in the volume of these applica tions during 1985. The Atlanta Fed maintained its good record of processing applications despite the higher volume of applications and abbreviated p m cessing time. State Member Banks. Twenty-one statechartered banks in the Sixth D i s trict were admitted to membership in the Federal Reserve System in 1985, bringing the total number of state mem ber banks to 113. This record growth in our constituency is attributable in part to continued expansion of the southeastern banking industry, especially in Florida, and the conversion to commer cial banks of savings and loan associations seeking FDIC insurance. Also, bank subsidiaries of some bank holding companies seem to prefer being regu- lated by the same authority as their parent company. Monetary Policy Directom We want to thank our dime tors for their valuable counsel during the year, with a special word of appreciation to Dan B. Andrews,President of the First National Bank in Dickson, Tennessee. Mr. A n d r i m s stepped down from our head office board at y e d s end after completing six years on that body and three previously with the Nashville board. We want to welcome Virgil H. Moore, Jr., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of First Farmers and Mer chants National Bank in Columbia, Tennessee, who recently joined our head office board. Discount Rate. The discount rate was changed only once in 1985. This change occurred on May 20, when the rate was lowered from 8 to 7 1/2 percent, the lowest point since August 1978. Federal Advisory Council. We wish to express our gratitude to Philip F. Searle, Chairman of Sun Banks, Inc., who completed his term as Sixth D k trict representative to the Federal Advisory Council. We are pleased that Ben nett A. Brown, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Citizens and Southern Georgia Corporation, has a s sumed this responsibility in 1986. Advisory Councils. The Federal Re serve Bank of Atlanta, like other Re serve Banks, formed an advisory c o w cil consisting of 15 representatives from' agriculture, small business, and labor. In its first two meetings the Council already has given the Bank's directors, and staff concerned with monetary policy greater insight into the special con cerns of small business, agriculture, and labor and provided an additional' sounding board on regional and national economic issues. Distinguished Speakers and Special' Functions. The Bank continued to attract distinguished private and public figures for dialogues with our directors, and business and community leaders on important public policy issues Speakers appearing in this series of monthly programs included w&hown govern& ment figures, bankers, judges, econcl mists academics, and business leaders. The Bank also sponsored luncheons, honoring leaders from a variety of fields ranging from finance to diplomacy. V Building Construction Program The Jacksonville Branch building project was running several months behind schedule at the beginning 04 1985. The contractor has realigned the project management and has scheduled completion of the building for the middle of 1986. 1 JOHN H. WEITNAUER CHAIRMAN JR. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer W-Y Atlanta caogta BRADLEY CURREY, JR. DEPUTY CHAIRMAN PmddeQt Rock-Tm Company Norcmss, Georgia DAN B. ANDREWS h8ident First N a t l o d Bank Mckson, Tennessee HAROLD B. BLACH, JR. Seated are Currey. l e R d Wehuer. Standin& fmm left. are SI@, Robhwn. Walker, Thompson, Blach, Coucdw Aadrewa and P e d d Advbny Council Member Seuh 1986 direct- plddellt BWfa Inc. BfrmineharnAlak JANE C. COUSINS President and Chief Executive Officer M d Lynch RealtylCoueins MkmL Florida E B. ROBINSON, JR. ChairmpnandChiefBurcutivaofficer LkpodtGuarantyNationalBPnk J a O n , Midnsippi BERNARD F. SLIGER PmddeQt morMp state univereity TdldlM=+Florida HORATIO C. THOMPSON Preddent Hmtio Thompson Inv6stment Inc Baton Rouge, LouMnna MARY W. WALKER Preddent The National Banlr of Walton County Monroe,Geogla New Director for 1988 rederal Advisory Council, 1985 VIRGIL H. MOORE,JR. PHILIP F. SEARLE ChaLman and chief Executive officer Fint Farmem and Merchauta National Bank Columbia, Texmeame Chairman Sun Banks, Inc mlanda, Florlda la Federal Advisory Council, 1986 BENNETT A. BROWN Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Citizen8 and southern Georgia Corporation The Citizens and Southem National Bank Atlanta,Georgia BRANCH U I K E G ' l U K S , 1 9 8 5 BIRMINGHAM MARTHA McINNIS CHAIRMAN president Inc Montgomery, Alabama En*& G. MACK DOVE preddent AAA cooper Transportationcompany Dothan, Alabama GRADY GILLAM chairmaa AmsouthBank, N.A Gaddent Alabama SAMUEL RICHARDSON HILL, JR. Preddent UnfvenUyofAlnbnmahBfrmineham Birmineham,Alabama WILLARD L HURLEY ch.lnnut.ndChiefEurcutive miter PfntAlabamr-InC Bfnnineham,Alabama J CHARLES LEE PEERY Chatrman T h e m NationrlBankof Florence Florsnc& Alabama MARGARET E. M. TOLBERT A m o d a t e p l w o r t f a r ~ a n d ~ Dtrector, Carver Remarch Foundnth Twkegee IMtltllte Tudcegee, Alabama A. G. TRAMMELL hddent AlabamaLAborcounon,AFLc10 Blrmineham,Alabama New Directom For 1888 ROY D. TERRY preddent and chief Executive officer Terry Manufactwin# Company, Inc. Roanoke, Alabama JUDITH THOMPSON Preddent and ChiefExecutive Officer 'raompron Tractor company, Inc Bhin$~un,Alabama MILTON WENDLAND owner Autaug. Farming Company Autnugavlh, Alabama 14 c I JACKSONVILLE E. WILLIAM NASH, CHAIRMAN JR Prasident SoutbCentml Operatiom + The Prudential Insuranar company of America Jacksondka, Florida GEORGE C. BOONE, JR ~ Pmsident and Chief Executive Officer Security F h t Federal Saving8 and Loan Asnociation Daytona Beach, Florida d BUELL G. DUNCAN, JR Chairman and Chief Executive Officer SunBank, N.A. Orlando, Florida E. F. KEEN, JR Vice Chairman a NCNB Bancorporation, Inc. Bradenton, Florida ANDREW A. ROBINSON Dean Cob@ of Education and Human Senicm U n i d t y of North Florida lacbnville, Florida & I JO ANN DOKE SMITH C*oWnm Smith Brothan Micanopy, Florida JOHN D. UIBLE Chainnan and Chief Executive Officer Florida National Bpnkr of Florida,Inc. Jacbonville,Florlda JOEL R WELLS, JR pladdent and Chief Executive Officer sunBankr,Inc Orlando, Florida s New Directore for 1886 t. f ROBERT R DEISON Chlkman Andrew Jackson State Savhq~sand Loan Asnociation Tallah~aea,Florida GEORGE W. GIBBS, I11 ' Pmddent and Chief Exeeutiva Officer Atlantic Dry Dock Corporation Fort George Island, Florida 1s I I I 1 MIAMI i EUGENE E. COHEN CHAIRMAN Chief Fiaandal OffiCerandTraasurer HdHughe~MedicalIn~titute Coconut Grove, Florida ROBERT D. APELGREN praeidant 4 ApeIgren CorporatiOn Pahokee, Florida SUE McCOURT COBB \ Attorney Greenbe& "murk?, Adcew, Hoffman, Upoff, Rosea and Quentel, P.A. Miami# Florida * JAMES P. HERMES President and Chief Executive Officer BankoftheIdadg U sanibel Florida D. S. HUDSON, JR. Chafnnan P Fimt National Bank and 'mu3t Company of Stuart Stuart Florida ROBERT L KESTER vice ChaiDman Barnett Bank of South Florida, N.A. Pompano Reach, Florida ROBERT D. RAPAPORT chairman Royal Pahn SaAeeodation Principal, Tha Rapaport Companiw PaLn Reach, Florida II I ROBERT M. TAYLOR chafnnan and Chief Executive officer The Marin- Group, Inc FortMyem, Florida New Director for lsss WILLIAM H. LOSNER President and Chief Executive Officer The First National Bank of Homestead Homestead, Florida ,'+ a 16 ~ I NASHVILLE CONDON S. BUSH CHAIRMAN President ' Bush Brothers& Company Dandridge, Tennessee WILLA. HILDRETH 'President and Chief Executive Officer First National Bank of Loudon County Lenoir City, Tennessee SAMUEL H. HOWARD 4 senior Vice President of Public Affairs Hospital Corporation of America Nashville, Tennessee b ROBERT W. JONES Nashville Branch directonr Seated, left to right, SbeU Wllllama B d and NeeL Standine. Howard. H Jonea Chairman and President First National Bank McMinnville, Tennessee C. WARREN NEEL . D m College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee ,OWEN G. SHELL, JR. President and Chief Executive Officer First American National Bank of Nashville Nashville, Tennessee 'PATSY R WILLIAMS b Partner Rhyne Lumber Company Newport, Tennessee New Directors for 1986 %GENECHEATHAM President Advanced Integrated Technology, Inc. Nashville, Tennessee t SHIRLEY A. ZEITLIN President Shirley Zeitlin 8 Company Realtors $Nashville, Tennessee 17 m and - - N R W nRT.EANS LESLIE B. LAMPTON CHAIRMAN preesdent mon, Inc Jackson, M W p p i 1 JAMES G. BOYER chairman, prsddent, andChiafExecuthreOfRcer Gulf National Bank at Lake Charlee Lake Charles, Loutsiana PHILIP IC LIVINGSTON Vice Chairman. President, and Chief Executive * offbr Citizene National Bank Hammod Louisiana s SHARON A. PERLIS Attorney MetsiriR Louisiana TOM EL SCOTT, JR. Fbddent and Chief Executive Officer Unifht Bank for Savings, F.A. Jackson, Mississfppi * c ROOSEVELT STEPTOE Professor of Economics southem university Baton Rouge, Louisiana 1 New Dhctora for 1986 ALAN R BARTON President and Chief Executive Officer Mississippi Power Company Gulfpolt Mississippi t ROBERT M. SHOFSTAHL President and Chief Executive Officer Pelican Homestead and SaAssociation Metairie, Louisiana CAROLINE G. THEUS President Inglewmd Land 8 Development Company Alexandria, Louisiana * t c 18 SENIOR OFFICERS c ROBERT P. FORRESTAL B. FRANK KING JOHN M. WALLACE Preddent Vice President and Associate Director of Research Vice President ELY S. MATI'ERI Vice President and Nashville Branch Manager * JACK G U Y " First Vice President B.H. HARGE'IT Executive Vice President JEFFREY J. WELLS Vice President RICHARD R OLIVER EDMUND WILLINGHAM Vice President and General Counsel Vice President W.R CALDWELL Senior Vice President 4 CHARLES D. EAST Senior Vice President and Comptroller HARRY C. SCHIERING Mamgement Committes Seated, MI to right TschkeL Guynn, and Smith. SEandio& S c h M w Caldwell Enst and General Auditor HarBett H. TERRY SMITH 9 Senior Vice pregident SHEILA TSCHINKEL Senior Vice President and Director of Research 4 PATRICK K. BARRON Vice President and Miami Branch Manager WARDLYN BASSLER Vice President d HENRY BOURGAUX Vice President and New Orleane Branch Manager 8 Iz HARRY BRANDT Corporate Secretary and A e s b t to the President FRANK J. CRAVEN Vice President W.M. DAVIS Vice President DELMAR HARRISON Vice President and Atlanta Branch Manager JAMES D. HAWKINS Vice President and Jacksonville Branch Manager ROBERT E. HECK Vice President FRED R HERR Management Committee HARRY C. SCHIERING JACK G U Y " Firat Vice Preddent General Auditor B.H. HARGE'IT H. TERRY SMITH Executive Vice m i d e n t Vice President and Bi~minghamBranch Manager W.R CALDWELL JOHN R KERR CHARLES D. EAST Vice President Senior Vice President senior Vice m i d e n t and Comptroller 19 Senior Vice President SHEILA TSCHINKEL Senior Vice M i d e n t and Director of Reaearcb STATEMENT OF CONDITION c Assets Gold Certiiicate Account Special Drawing RigMs Certificate Account Coin Loans and securities Cash Items in Process of Collection Bank Remises Other Assets Interdistrict Settlement Account Total Assets Decemba 31,1984 $ 360,000,000 Decemba31,1985 413,000,000 $ 161,000,000 192,000,000 49,655,950 52,703,051 4,018,821,491 5,736,386,771 541,108,045 909,232,707 39,275,879 47,651,466 437,619,842 800,708,587 2,276,686,836 3,476,149,849 $7,884,168,043 $11,627,832,431 * \ # e * Federal Reserve Notes Deposits* Deferred Availabiii Cash Items $5,216,469,381 $7,340,529,859 1,756,695,061 2,936,095,302 545,785,769 914,400,459 98,905,432 143,715,811 0 0 $7,615,855,643 $11,334,741,431 + w Other Liabilities Interdistrict Settlement Account i Total Liabiiiis capitalCapital Paid In 4 $ 134,156,200 $ 146,545,500 134,156,200 146,545,500 Total Capital Accounts $ 268,312,400 $ 293,091,000 Total Liabilities and Capital Accounts $7,884,168,043 $1 1,627,832,431 Surplus v v c t f STATEMENT OF EARNINGS ~ $481,819,985 $565,425,720 operating Expenses 88,577,516 95,094,551 Cost of Earnings Credit (Deduct) 12,044,659 11,295,260 Current Net Income $381,197,810 $459,035,909 -37,009,013 103,092,542 Assessment for Expenses of Board of G o v m 6,826,100 6,372,824 F. R Currency Cost 3 3 i ,034 5,380,162 $334,101,663 $550,370,688 $ 7,686,605 $ 8,445,546 Payment to US Treasury (Interest on F.R Notes) 313,799,808 529,535,842 Transferred to Surplus Account Net Additions (+) Deductions (9 +I 2,615,250 +12,389,300 $334,101,663 $550,370,688 $121,540,950 $134'1 56,200 12,615,250 12,389,300 $1 34,156,200 $146,545,500 Total Current lname 3 Net Additions (+) Deductions (3' Net Earnings Before Payment to US Treasury DisbiMknofNdEamhDs Total Income Distributed Transferred to Surplus - as abwe Surplus December 31 21 -7 SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS I985 1984 S savicest0~Clearing and Collection Services ctmcks handle& (millions) S items (thousands) (millions) items f (thousands) * us Government drecks ~alchecks ACH payments Drocessed 54,928 1,307,228 263,037 77,161 2,138,020 72.087 57,210 1,367,556 427,231 77,470 2,299,243 87,161 6,890,627 6,139 2,947,469 6,373 23,995 1 16,954 4,820,753(r) 6,606,512(r) 1,679,140 3,159,478 25,778 18,274 5,176,656 6,753,204 1,761,108 3,390,971 b Wre transfers of funds Cash Senrim Total cash receipts Total cash payments ~encyprocessed coinprocessed - bans to depository instiikns daily average 44 securities senrim wire transfer of mrii Noncash collectbn 579,000 1,431 553 1,282 - 25 719,918 1,421 312 1,461 ~t0USTmim1~1y 4 * t US savings bonds issued redeemed by Federal Resenre Bank 293 z121 312 2,455 US savinop bonds issued and redeemed by qualified issuing and paying allents 964 9,866 987 9,850 other Treasury securities issued serviced and redeemed 28,609 198 39,916 182 Oeposits to Treasury Tax and loan accaunts 51,238 936 35,887 1,020 1,414 368,631 1,572 339,834 4 22 r) < 1 For additional copies write to: Information Center Federal Reserve Bank of ~ n u a n r r 104 Marietta Street, N. W. ik? Atlanta, Georgia 30303-2713 ~ P @BirminghamBranch 1801 Fifth Avenue, North m, Alabama 35283 e 515 Julia Street %* Jacksonville, Florida 32231 Miami Branch 9100 N. W. 36th Street Extensioi &Miami Florida 33178 Nashville Branch 301 Eighth Avenue, North *Nashville, Tennessee 37203 Reserve B a n k o f nl-cw -~ 1385 A t 1 anta . $ (:H:> New Orleans + 525 St. Charles Avenue Research Library Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 104 Marietta Street, N.W. Atlanta, Georgia 30303-2713 ~ 1 ~ ~~ Federal Reserve Bank of At A n n u a l r e p o r t / Federal Reserve B a n k of A t l a n t a . AI ru 1985 9.(30