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FE JERAL ESEIVE 13 C C I • Washington, D. C. November 5, 1947 Prospects for agriculture during the coming year are under discussion here this week at t e Annual Outlook Conference of the USDA. Topmost consideration naturally is being given to the food grain and feed grain_situation in relation to the world food crisis, and much of the thinking about farm operations for the next 12 months is in terms of meeting as effectively and efPiciently as possible world food distress„ It is very easy for the average citizen to tire a little of as much emphasis as has recently been placed on starvation and inadequate food throughout many parts of thewoeld. But when one hears WeireiTas of our health officials in some of these spots telling that the incidence oriuberculosis has trig[ since the end of the war, that in. the American occupied zone of Germany t e average weight of men, the major labor force, between the ages of 20 and 40 is 131 pounds compared with 154 pounds in this country—and the minimum for useful and OFFEENTIRWE-ITTFJEFFibed as 142 pounds by health experts on the spot--and that the school children of age 12 are so TEURTJT--that their average height is three inches below prewar, it is painfully obvious that responsible leadership is not very far from tEg7iuth: in regarding the handling of the world food situation as a grave showdown issue for Western civilization. The Director-General of the World Food and Agriculture Organization, Sir John Boyd Orr, was quoted today as reporting that careful studies show that during the next year more people will die of starvation than were killed by actual warfare and bombing an7.7any one year of the war itself ° USDA. nutrition experts ieported that urban populations in the distressed countries will have a diet in next year 25 per cent Fr and in some countries 30 per cent belovrEEF low prewar level. In many countries trying to get back on their feet economically, this means lowered work output, stunted bodies, and mental and physical ailments almost beyond com.on and beyond—i7i.11-1770 Because of these conditions, needs. and demands for American farm products, particularly grains, appear to be insatiable and far beyond the ability of this country's farms to meet them. Therefore USDA °Mei-En-foresee anothel'' year of a.72:717ve1 incomes for American farmers about equal in total dollars to 1547 hca marketings Tot are expected to be less in 1948 because of smaller grain crops and less livestock and livestock product out-turn, but higher prices are expected to offset the smaller physical volume. One prominent expert, however, is alone in underscoring the probability of a price recession in 1948, but this is the third successive year he has been bearish° In view of all these critical conditions, state college and .extension people are being urged to carry to farmers the recommendation that the maximum of food production for human use be achieved, especially that shorter feed supplies be used as efficiently_ and— EJ—1—— possible to get the maxim= meat output from livestock feeding spalgyas -.4hich spelled out means no choice or prime cattle and lighter weight' hos„ Aresponsible state department representative to1d71717E-Els department does not say that without a foreign aid program Europe will go Communist, but that unless a substantial progra —== .sworern— —Eliou,zunsestand prolonged civil war will result,-ErVery harmful, if not fatal.,damaRe will brUBErro Western.democracy. #105 Walter B o Garver, Agricultural Economist
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