Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1979
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nnTionHL Economic PREPARED Month Ending: BY FEDERAL RESERVE August 31, 1979 BANK trehds OF Released: ST. LOUIS September 28, 1979 GNP expanded at only an 8.6 percent annual rate during the first two quarters of this year» reflecting in part a •lowing in money stock (Ml) growth. During these quarters, the implicit price deflator rose at a 9.3 percent rate and real GHP fell at a 0.6 percent rate. The money stock, without adjustments for new means of payment introduced in November 1978, declined at a 1.5 percent rate during the five months from October 1978 to March 1978, following a 7.8 percent rate of increase during the two years ending last October. In recent months, the economy continued to show signs of weakness. Industrial production rose at only a 1.6 percent rate from the fourth quarter of 1978 to the second quarter of 1979. From March to August, however, industrial production declined at a 3.3 percent rate, putting the index lower in August than in December 1978. Payroll and civilian employment growth have also slowed markedly since March. Unemployment has risen from 5.7 percent of the civilian labor force in March to 6.0 percent in August* Inventories are at low levels relative to sales despite evidence that they have expanded faster than sales in recent months. The ratio of business inventory to business final sales (both in 1972 prices) rose from .269 in the last quarter of 1978 to .278 in the second quarter of this year. Except for two quarters just prior to the 1966-67 slowdown, the ratio at the end of 1978 was at the lowest level in postwar history. The second quarter ratio is about the same as the average for 1973, a year marked by shortages and low inventory. Prices continue to reflect the impact of substantial increases in energy costs over the past nine months and the pace of monetary growth over the past three years. Consumer prices rose at a 12.7 percent rate over the three months ending in August while producer prices rose at a 13.3 percent rate. The producer price index for fuel and related products and power rose at a 43.6 percent rate from November 1978 to August. From June to August, these prices rose at a 77.1 percent rate. TOTAL CIVILIAN KMPLOHNCNT _________________ CONPOUNQgQ AWNIIAL M 71S OP CHAN8I ___________________________________ 1-78 2-78 3-78 2-70 1 .6 W6 2 .9 3.1 w e 1 .4 44 5.6 4 -78 5—78 6-78 7-78 8-78 IN ITIA L NONTH I I I TEMINM. nunin 9-71 1-79 THOUSANOS OP PCftSONS 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 93447 93*282 93*7C4 5 «M 3 .6 44 4 .4 3 .2 6-71 4 .5 5.2 6 .0 6 .1 9a 7-71 3^ 3 .6 34 3 .2 3^ -2 .4 o- t s 3.3 3 .6 3 .7 3 .3 34 0 .5 3 .6 f -7 $ 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .4 )«4 1 .6 3.6 3.7 10-78 3 .3 34 3 .6 3 .3 34 1.9 34 34 3.0 93*953 94*640 94*446 94*723 95*010 95*241 11-78 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 3.8 3«9 2 .8 4 .2 44 44 6.6 12-7$ 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .5 34 2 .6 34 34 34 3 .9 14 95*751 95*855 1-79 3.6 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 34 34 4 .0 44 4.1 4 .5 3 .5 5 .7 2-79 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 34 34 3 .2 4.0 4 .1 44 4 .5 34 5.1 44 1-79 3 .6 3.8 3 .8 3 .7 3.7 3.1 3.8 3 .9 3.9 4.1 34 4.2 3 .4 4—79 2.8 2 .9 2 .9 2.6 24 1 .9 2 .4 24 2.1 2 .0 1.1 1.0 -0 .5 -2 .9 -0 .0 5-79 2 .7 2.8 2.8 2 .6 24 1.9 24 24 2.1 1.9 14 14 0.1 HI . 4 -3 .2 M 4-79 2.9 3 .0 3 .0 24 2.7 24 2 .7 24 24 24 14 1.9 1.1 0 .3 -0 .4 3.7 7-79 3 .1 3 .1 3.1 34 34 2 .5 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 24 2.4 1.9 1 .4 1.1 •-79 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 24 2.0 24 24 2.2 2.1 14 1 .6 1.1 0.5 | o »i| 1*11 2*71 J -f l brim 7-71 •»71' 9-71 lt -7 1 11-71 12^71" 1-79 J -T T 4-71 ' '5—71 96*300 96*647 96*842 2 .4 t-IT 96*174 V . U .I70 X 96*318 54 96*754 44 5.7 5.8 97*210 24 2.4 0.9 96*900 4 -h 5-79 6 -W t-T f IIVII1AL MJNIH * wm OF S T . LOWS S»P7»N8t* 7* 1979 p a tk d ll w m jn m m CONPOUNOfO ANNUAL M m OP CNAN8C TtMUNM. nunin 2-78 3-70 4-7 8 5-78 6-78 7-78 0-71 2-78 4 .6 3-78 6 .3 7 .9 4-78 7 .6 9 .1 1 0 .» 5-78 6 .4 74 64 2 .8 6—78 6 .2 6 .6 6.1 4 .1 54 7-78 5.2 54 4 .7 2 .9 2 .9 8-78 6 .7 4 .7 4 .1 2 .6 24 1.1 14 9-78 4.1 4 .1 3 .4 2.1 14 0 .8 0 .9 04 I I IN ITIA L NONTH 1-78 9-78 10-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 THOUSANOS OP HRSOIS 84*188 86*726 85418 85418 V * 0 .5 85*996 86433 86*149 86*163 10-78 4 .3 4 .3 3 .8 2 .7 2 .7 24 24 34 5 .9 11-78 43 4 .5 4 .1 3 .3 34 2.9 3 .5 4.2 64 12-78 4 .4 4 .4 4 .0 34 34 3 .0 3.5 44 54 5 .0 34 1-79 4 .6 44 4 .0 3 .3 34 3.1 34 3 .9 44 4 .5 34 3 .4 2-79 4 .3 4 .3 4 .0 3 .4 34 34 3.6 34 4 .7 4 .4 34 3 .7 44 1-79 4.5 4 .5 4 .2 3 .6 3.7 3.5 3.9 44 4 .9 4*7 44 4 .6 5.2 6 .3 4—79 4.2 4 .1 3.8 3 .3 34 34 3 .4 3.7 4 .2 3 .9 34 3 .6 34 3 .0 5-79 4.1 4.1 3.8 3 .4 34 3 .2 3.5 3 .7 4.2 M 34 3.5 3.5 3 .3 6-79 _4*l 44 3 .0 3 .3 34 34 3 .5 3.7 4 .0 3 .8 34 3 .4 3.4 7-79 3.9 3 .8 3.6 3 .2 34 3 .0 3 .2 34 3 .7 3 .5 3.1 3 .0 8-79 3.7 34 3 .4 3 .0 34 24 34 3.1 3 .4 3.1 2.7 2 .6 -------------------1^ T > F 7T l» T I 4 - 71 5 -1 1 6 - 71 F- 71 8 - 71 f»W 86*573 64 87*036 U »H 87*281 ^ T l 87*524 87418 88*263 \ 88*248 ,1 *5 % 1.9 44 34 24 JU 6 __3.1 3 .0 2 .7 1.9 24 1.9 0.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 14 0.3 l - TF l = ^ T -W > 88*539 7f > W 88*764 » » 7» 88 413P 0 4 \ 66*815? T -T 9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 119111AL IU IIH --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------K* PH a ININA W--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------PWiPAWIU I T T 1D0 U C * B f* V € SANK OP S T« LOUIS S V T I W C R 7* i f W 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF PERSONS RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF PERSONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 SOORCEt tl.S.OEPARTNENT OF LAOOR FERCENTAOES ARE ANIMAL KATES OF CHANCE FOR PERI 00$ INO 1CATEO. LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt AOOOST FUEL ININAHY PREPAREO OY FEOERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT PERCENT 1971 SEASONALLY 1972 1973 1974 RATE PERCENT A D JU STED 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 SOORCEt O.S. OCPARTNfNT OF LAOOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LAOOR FORCE U T E S T OATA PLOTTEO« AOOOST PREPAREO OY FEDERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOOIS 3 CONPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 1967*100 IN ITIA L MONTH TERMINAL 1-76 2-76 4-76 3-76 5-76 6-76 7-76 6-76 9-76 10-76 11-7» 12-76 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 166.6 2-76 6.0 3-76 6 .6 9.3 4-76 9 .3 9.9 10.6 10.5 190.2 191.6 193.4 5-76 9.6 10.1 10.5 6-76 9 .7 10.2 10.5 10.4 10.4 7-76 9 .4 9.7 9.6 9 .5 9.0 7.6 6-76 9 .0 9.2 9.2 6.9 6.3 7 .3 195.0 196.2 197.3 6 .9 196.9 9-76 9 .2 9.3 9.4 9.1 6 .» 6.2 6.5 10.2 10-76 9 .3 9.5 94~ 9 .4 9.2 » .9 9 .3 10.5 10 .» 11—76 9.2 9.3 9.3 9.1 6.9 »4 6.6 9 .4 9.1 12-76 9.1 200.6 201.6 7.4 203.2 9.2 9.2 9 .0 6.6 6.6 6.6 9.2 6.9 6.0 » .7 1-79 9 .4 ~ *9.5 9.5 9 .4 9.3 9 .1 9 .4 9.9 9.6 9.5 10*5 124 2-79 9 .9 10.1 10.0 10.0 9 .9 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.0 12.2 14.0 154 3—79 10.1 1 0 4 “ 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.4 114 12.5 13.9 14.6 13.5 212.2 10.0 205*2 207.7 209.9 4—79 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.0 114 11.7 11.9 12.6 13.9 14.4 ' v N . j 13.9* 13.7 14.0 5-79 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.1 134 13.6 13.2 214.4 6—79 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.0 124 12.9 13.6 13.9 13.4 13.4 13.1 216.6 13.4 7—79 10.6 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.1 124 12.6 6-79 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.2 114 11.6 12.0 12.1 124 12.6 134 13.2 13«rl 12.6 12.7 1 2 .3 ^ ^ ^ 216.7 134 13.1 13.0 12.6 12.7 12.5 124^ 220.9 2 -H Jb IS 4-29 5 -2 » lr-79 7—21------ 4 -7 ».. .5 -2 » _4r2» 7-76. A«=7»_ 9-JUL jLfl-n 1 1 -2 » 12-2» -1=25 1-16.. 2 r2 ». IN IT IA L H M m ♦CM*« FOR UR6AN MMf lAMKKS ANO CLERICAL WORKERS >v w m m i if M t y g i A i t n » s r . i SCFTENKR 26» 1979 wwow m m e t i wp i i » a l l m m u u r n is - 'snmoNALLv A c o u m o CONFOUND» ANNUAL KATES OF CHANOC TKRNINAL________________________________________________________ IN ITIA L MONTH_________ _____ _______ _ HONTN 1 -7 » 2-76 >->70 W l 5—7> » - 7 » T»T$ »-7 6 f - T I 10-76 11-76 I M S 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 2 -7 » 12 »0 » -7 » 114 10*6 4 -7 » 12*1 12*1 13.7 5—7$ 11*2 10*9 11.1 »«5 6—7» 10*9 10.6 10.6 9*1 9*7 7 -7 » 9 .9 9 #5 9 .2 7 .» 7*5 5*3 0 -7 » 9.1 »♦6 6 .2 6 .6 44 4 .7 4.1 9-76 9 .2 » .6 » ♦5 7.5 7 .3 6 .5 7.1 __ 5-79 _ 6-79 1967 « 100 7-79 202.2 203.9 206.1 207.5 209.1 210.0 210.7 10.1________ 212.4 214.6 10-7» 9 .6 9 .5 9 .3 » .6 » .7 6 .4 9.5 12.3 14.4 11-76 9 .» 94 9 .4 » .» » .9 6 .7 9 .6 11.5 12.2 9 .9 12-7» 9 .7 94 9 .4 6 .9 » .9 6 .6 9.5 10.9 11.2 9.6 _ 1-79 104 10.2 10.1 9 .» 9 .9 1 0 .» 10.» 12.1 12.6 12.1 216.5 9.2 216.1 13.1 2 2 1 .0 224.1 r- 7» y>7 T 3 - 71 6—76" ~5—7» ' 6 - 7» "7—71 6-76 “*-7» 10-7» U-71 Twr i m I F T T W W l-W 4—7f 5—79 6-79 MJNIH R-REVISED W i BW »V M H U l » B K M t P I I W W T , 1 »W 4 MNK Of S T. LOUI t P R IC E S RA TIO SCALE O P IHI m A U M t A N {M I M M I s p i * « m * «m a n « a m l A M d t a f U t t m m t A M A N M A L SATIS M m R ATIO SCALE a n i Ca i m m u $ CMAWtf P M PtftlMS IMICATfS. LATffT M T A fLSTTCSt A M M T M t T A M S tY FfKltAL U H M RATIO SCALE PRODUCER P R IC E S «AM * St. I M I S RATIO SCALE r ( I C I N T M ( t A M A M W A l SATIS 9f CtfAMt F M M K f M S IM l CATC». tATIST SATA PlSTTtSt A M S S T M t ' A U S SY FtSCSAL DfSfAVt SANK ST ST. I M ' S 5 KMVOUCfcK PRICfc INOCXt INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED COMFOUNPgQ ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6C TERMINAL IN ITIA L NONTH 1-78 2-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 8-71 1967 « ICO 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 7 .4 2C3.1 3-78 6a 5 .4 4-78 7 .7 7.9 204.C 10.5 205.7 5-78 7.9 8.1 9 .5 8.5 6-78 8.2 8 .3 9 .3 8.8 9a 7-78 8 .3 8 .5 9.2 8.8 9a 9 .0 8-78 e.a 8 .3 8 .9 8.5 8a 8 .3 7.7 w e 8*1 8 .7 8*4 8^ 8*1 7*7 7.6 9 .0 8*7 8a 8*7 8*6 9.1 207.1 208.6 10-78 8*4 1W 8 8^6 12-78 8.5 8*6 9 .0 8 .8 1-79 9.1 9 .2 9 .6 9 .5 9a 9 .1 2-79 9.5 9 .7 10.0 10.0 10a 10.3 3-79 9 .9 10.0 10.4 10.4 10a 10.8 4-79 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.0 lia 11.5 5-79 10.5 10.7 6-79 10.7 7-79 8-79 8*5 210.1 211a 2 U .7 ¿u a 10*6 216.2 8a 8*8 8.8 9 «! 9a 9 .0 9.8 io a 1 1 .0 u .i 10.5 11.0 11.7 11.9 1 2 a 14.9 14a X 222.7 11.0 11.5 12a 12.3 13.2 14.9 14.7 14.9 225a 11.8 12.3 13.0 13.4 14.1 15.6 15.7 16.4 11.1 11.1 11 a 11.6 11.8 12a 12.9 13.2 13a 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.0 12.2 11.0 11.3 11.4 lia 11 a 12.1 12a 13.1 13.4 13.9 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.0 13.6 15.0 233.3 lia 11.5 11.9 12.0 12a 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.1 18.1 237.1 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.2 16.5 16 a 14.6 18.1 l» 7 T " y 7 l 3*78 4*78 5*78 6^71— 7- 78 ..8^71 8*1 220.2 n a f —71 10-78 11-1» — mi iia l 217.6 1 6 .1 % — 17.8 * ** * * XL 230.6 19.7 18.0 240.4 12—71 1-79 2-79 1-7» <^Tf "3 ^7»~ &T9 T-79 m iiw iw u u o u r p i i c r m i X t farm frooucts t iMtoctssco foods c f h o s - h a s . a o j. ______________________ CONFOUND» ANNUAL RATfS OF CHANCE___________ TERMINAL _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ — non nr~ 1-78 2-78 ............ 3—78 .i 4-78 5-78 2-78 28.8 3-78 30.8 32 a 4-78 29.9 30.4 28.1 5-78 23.3 2i a u a 5 .4 6 -7 » 21.6 19a 15.8 10.0 14a 7-78 16.1 13.7 9 .4 3 .8 2.9 8-78 12.0 9 .5 5 .3 0 .3 »-7 8 13.3 11.2 10-78 15.2 13.7 11.2 8 .5 11-78 14a U .I 10.8 oa 12-78 14.3 u a 10.9 9 .0 9a 1-79 15.1 14.0 12.2 10*6 u a 2-79 16.4 15a 14.0 12.7 13a 3-79 16.8 15.9 14.6 U .5 4-79 15.9 15.0 13.7 5-79 14.0 U .I 11.8 6-79 12.5 11.5 10.2 7-79 12.3 u a 8-79 11.2 io a 1-71 6-78 . 7-78 8-78 . M IT1AL MONTH — . - — ------------------------------------------- ------------------ ----- 9-78 10-78 11-71 12-78 1-79 2-79 3 -7 » — 4 -7 » . .. . 5-79 .. 6-79 ~ ..— 1967 • 10# — 7-79 196.5 201.2 205a 206.3 -ia 208.7 -7 .8 207a -» a -» .4 9a 7a U .6 27.2 32.0 9a 8 .0 12.3 20.7 u a 8a 12.2 u a 17.1 10.2 11.7 10.7 14.2 i»a U .9 14.8 1 7 .» 24.4 U .4 16.8 21.8 21.7 1 ».2 22. » 2 8 .» 33.5 u a 14a 17.3 21.7 21a 1 ».6 22.5 26.4 27.3 21.4 12.4 u a u .i 15.7 u a 1 8 .» 16.8 u a 20.3 18.9 U .2 10.7 u .i io a 12.8 15a 14.8 U .5 u a U .4 10.8 4.1 9 .1 9a 8.9 10.6 u a u a » .5 » .6 » .2 10.2 9.1 9a 8.9 10.4 U .4 u a »a » .5 » .2 6.8 9.1 8 .0 8a 7.8 » .1 10.7 7.7 7.4 7 .1 4a ■Z=7f~~ J —71” 4-71 5=71 6-71 T-7 1 H K 7 1 11-71 12-78 1 -7 » 205a 209.1 7-7T" • - H » .7 214.0 8.7 2i s a 217.5 221.5 _ 6a 226.9 _ 230.4 3.7 2u a -3 .4 -1 0 .4 229.2 0>5_ -5 .6 j^».9 ^ »a 2.1 -2 .2 - 4 .1 -o a 8.8 0 .7 -3 .8 -4 .6 -2 a l.l -6 .1 3 -7 » 4^79 5 -7 » '6-79 7-79 W 227a 228.9 227.7 FRXFARID 8V FKOCRAL RESERVE DANK OF S T. LOUIS AUGUST 9 » 1979 6 i I N D U S T R I A L PRODU CTION RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1967*100 1971 1967-100 S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 PEftCEtfTACES Aftt AMNtAl RATES tf COAWSt P M PE* IM S INtlCATU. LATEST SATA PISTTEit M U S T PRELIMINAAY PREPARE# tV PEKftAL RESERVE IAMK M ST. I M I S ________ INOUSTRIAL PRODUCTION____________________________ CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL IN ITIA L MONTH 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 5-78 6-78 7-78 8-78 1 H T « 100 9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 140*3 2 -T8 "2*6 3-78 ~9* 3 ~16^5~ 142*1 144*4 4-78 13*2 18*9 21.2 3—78 10*4 11.5 12.0 3 .4 4-78 10*8 12*9 11*7 7.3 11*3 10.3 7.V 9.1 8*1 144*8 146*1 147*1 8-78 7 .6 148*0 io*o 11*3 4—78 9*4 10*4 9 .4 7.1 8.1 7 .0 6 .* 5*0 10-78 9*3 10*2 9 .3 7.5 8.3 7 .6 7 .3 7.1 11-78 9*2 9 .9 9.1 7.5 8.2 7 .6 7 .i nt 9 .3 8 .4 7.5 1-79 8*2 8.V 8.0 6 .6 7.0 6 .4 6.1 5*8 6.0 4.9 3.6 [ - ± .3 2-79 7 .9 $•3 7.6 6.3 6 .7 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.6 4.7 3*8 148*6 149*7 150*6 151*8 12-78 0.8 \ 151*5 152*0 4*0 - 5—79 7 .9 8*3 7.7 6.5 6*8 6 .3 6*1 5*9 6 .0 5*4 4*9 3*2 6*1 4-79 6.1 6*4 5.6 4 .4 4 .5 3*9 3*4 2*9 2*6 1*5 0*3 -2*0 -1 .8 5-79 6 .4 6.8 6.2 5.1 5.2 4 .* 4 .3 4 .0 3*9 3*1 2*4 1*6 1*8 1*1 -2*3 13*5 4-79 4.2 6.4 5.8 4 .7 4.8 4.3 3*9 3.6 3*4 2*7 2*1 0*8 1*4 0*8 -1*6 6*5 7-79 5*9 6.1 5.5 4.5 4 .6 4.1 3*2 2*6 4 .é 5.0 4 .3 3.4 3.4 0*9 n 1*5 8-79 1-7$ 2-78 3-78 4-78 3-78 4—78 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 ¿*ê" 6-78 3*t 3 .4 ¿«4 2.0 7-78 8-78 ”T*t 1.6 2*6 0*3 (±3 •é*t i 153*0 150*8 -4*6 -14*0 152*4 152*4 0*0 1*6 0*9 -0*8 4*9 0*8 -1*4 -3*3 0*2 -3*9 -5*8 -12*6 2-79 3-79 4-79 3-79 4-Tt IN ITIA L MONTH _ P - PRELIMINARY _______________________ ;___________________ _______________ 7 152*6P 130.9P 7-79 . _________ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREPAREO BY PEOfRAL RESERVE PAN* Of ST« LOUIS SEPTEMBER 14* 1974 ) .. PERSONAL INCOME RATIO SCALE M O N T H L Y TOTALS AT ANNUAL TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS S EASONALLY AOJUSTED RATES RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOiRCE: » . S . DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANIMAL RATES OP CHANCE POR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AOOOST PRELIMINARY PREPARED DY PEDERAL RESERVE DANK OP ST. LOO IS PERSONAL INCOME CQRpowogQ annual m t i s o f chance BILLIONS OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN ITIA L MONTH 1»TS _9 * 9 2 »TI * l» T S 4-78 5-78 4-78 T -T I >»7t 9-78 10-78 1 H 8 12-TS 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-74 6-79 7-79 1*631.3 ______________________________________________________ 1*654.4 4—7B 15*1 17*8 17*3 1*676*5 5-76 13.3 14*5 12*5 8*0 6—78 13*2 14*0 12*6 10*3 12*7 7-78 14*3 15*1 14*3 13*4 16*2 19*8 8-78 13*4 13*9 13*1 12*0 13*4 13*8 1*687.3 1*704.2 1*730.0 8*1 1*741.3 9-78 13*0 13*5 12*7 11*8 12*7 12*7 9*4 10*7 1*756.1 10-78 13*6 14*1 13*5 12*9 13*8 14*1 12*3 14*5 1*761.0 11-78 13.7 14*1 13*6 13*1 14*0 14*2 12*9 14*5 12-78 14.1 14*5 14*1 13*7 14*6 14*9 14*0 15*5 16*5 18*3 1-79 13*3 13*6 13*2 12*7 13*3 13*4 12*4 13*3 12*5 11*5 2-79 13*2 13*5 13*1 12*6 13*2 13*2 12*3 13*0 12*3 11*6 „ M 3-79 13.3 13*6 13.2 12*8 13*3 13*3 12*6 13*2 12*7 12*2 4-79 12*8 13*0 12*6 12*2 12*6 12*6 11*8 12*2 11*5 10*9 9*1 10*5 9*9 5-79 12.4 _12*6 12*2 11*8. 12*1 12*1 11*3 11*7 10** 10*3 •±1 9.7 9*0 6-79 12*2 Jl??* 11*9 11*6 11*9 11*8 11*1 11*4 10*6 10*1 .• t « 7-79 12*4 12*6 12*2 11*4 12*2 12*2 11*5 11*9 11*3 10*9 9.8 8-79 12*1 12*2 11*8 11*5 11*7 11*7 11*1 11*3 10*7 10*2 1 9*3 1 9*9 1 .1 1 -7 « Z-7Ü 3*TI 5-fO O-fO 7—70 *— ro I f 801.4 14*6 1*8^6.8 1*834.3 5*0 \ 1*851.4 _ 11*8 _|4*3 IQ-7® 11-76 12—7® 9*9 10*7 1-79 10*5 1*872.1 — \ jy w /o 1*880.7 6*4 1*891.6 7*2 8*0 8*9 9*5 10*8 12*7 16*^ .„ a .7 9*4 10.2 10*9 » 1*905.1 1*429.7 5 .4 \ 1*938. IP 2-79 IN ITIA L NONTH FMFARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS SEPTEMBER IB » 1979 8 RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF OOLLARS PIlCtHTAQEt ARE AMWAL RATtf R E T A I L SALES RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF OOLLARS S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED M W C Et t . $ . KPARTNENT * CHANCI P M PER I M S IN DIC ATO . CMNKRCt LA U S T RATA PLOTTEDt M Y , ADC9ST ADVANCE (STIMATE P K P A U I RY K K R A l RCtfRVC RANK * ST. LDMIS RETAIL SALES "O T W J U W tü ANWJAt AÀT6 S 0# t H W U -------------------------------i n i t i a l m m ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- J U W lH k l MONTH 1=71" 2-78 3-78 4-71 3-78 4-78 7 -7 3 o -t t * -n io -7 t 11-73 a - n 1= 7» 3- 7 * m w 21*3 6*,é9é .1 2 * W "6 4 ^7 3 ' 43,144 4-78 ” 22; 7 T T T " “E T 7 T 17 1 14 14*5 13 2 10 4 1=78 19« 3 14 3 12 3 9—TO. 13*4 14 10-71 15*5 11-71 12-ta 1-79 2=79 3-79 4-79 16*2 16*0 14*9 14 13 15 13 13 13 11 11 4 12 8 13 7 14 5 14 9 12 1 12 4 12 4 10 3 10 4 9 3 9 2 9 5 -7 i 18*6 TiSft 0# 4-79 3 63,322 63#944 13*7 19*9 6->9 12*1 11*9 lia 7-79 10*9 B—79 10«8 10 5—Y9 10 10 — s n r ■ <r:i~ 66*224 11 «9 12*8 21*4 9 12*2 13 «3 18*1 14*9 3 4 3 8 1 4 3 4 3 3 4 13# I 14 «9 I4 * t 13*9 14*3 12*3 11*6 12*1 9*8 9*8 13*6 "IfiTT" 12*0 12*3 9*9 ""9.9 17*T 18*9 1T*9 14*3 13*6 13*3 10*3 10*4 13*8 18*1 17*0 13*1 11*7 12*4 4*2 9*2 8*8 8 #9 9*2 8*1 8*8 8*8 4*1 8*8 _9;t 0*1 8*8 67,303 8*1 68 ,083 14*8 19*7 17*7 i2f;7 11*0 12*0 8*4 48,971 22*7 18*2 13*8 r v 11*4 8«1 1-1.1 ^ 9*7 3*6 1*7 4*4 li*o é«3 6*3 10*3 'ir.rs. ...... .. "" 7*1 4*2 1*9 2*9 " 57i ^O.fs^ 3 ^ 7* 8*8 7*4 3*1 3*4 4*4 4*3 -1*1 9*8 7*J 6*2 4*1 2*3 3*1 ¿*9 -1*3 3*t - M S . 7*4 4*3 4*6 3*3 4*1 4*0 1*0 3*2 3*1 8*3 1 'l 7*8 6*7 3*0 1*»° 1 4*7 4*7 2*3 4*1 4*9 8*3 8 * ^ 1-7 12—78 l» T t 3-79 4-79 » -T f » -7 » 70,138 >0,918 70,833 71,122 72,043 71,366 71,914 71,803 72,283P 72,786E T»Tf IN ITIA L MONTH P - PRELIMINARY T = _5STIHAW>------ PREPAREO >Y PEOERAL RESERVE BANK OP ST# LOUIS a n w u k i l » 1979 9 HOURLY COMPENSATION» PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR m m m B iTFs fy change _________ TERMINAL -IN IT IA I QUABTEB QUAR T E R OUTPUT PfR HOUR OF ALL PERSONS» PRIVATE BUS IN K S SECTOR RATOS om CHAMP»______________ IXBttUlM QUARTER M lIliL fll 1 -7 4 1- 7 « 9 —7 4 1967 i 100_____ um a. 1 .7 7 a-7 4 9 -7 7 4 -7 4 1 A O .A 1 -T5 lA o .m - 0 .9 2 -7 5 1 *2 1-75 4.2 4—75 2.8 1-76 2-74 11.A A . 1 1 9 .4 I 9 .s l t-z iz d 5.4 2 .1 1 .4 5 .9 4.1 2 .5 1 *1 5*0 1.4 2*1 4*4 l . i V 2 .B 2 .0 1 .1 1 .4 1 .7 1 .7 1 1 4 .4 -2 ^ ^ V ^ 1 « . 7 11* .A 1 1 4 .2 1-74 1 1 4 .7 \ 1 1 7 .9 4 -7 4 2 .9 4 .1 1 -7 7 1 .1 4 .1 1 .1 2 .4 1 .4 2 .1 2 .6 1 .1 4. 5 2 -7 7 2 .7 1 .5 2 .5 i.a 2 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 .5 1 -4 4 .7 9.A 9.« «.A 2 .2 2 .4 2 .4 2 .0 2.A W 77 ^ llft.% 1 7 «L * * .9 9 .4 1.« 2 .4 1 .7 l . i I.A l.A 0 .4 9 .9 • 1.« >•7 « 2 .4 2 .4 2 .1 1 .4 2 .1 1 .4 1 .4 1 .4 i.m 0 .5 1 .2 —1 . A —A . 7 J -7 * 2 .4 9 .0 2 .1 1 .7 2 .1 1 .5 1. « 1 .5 1.« A .O 1 .5 A .l A .A U 7* 2 .4 2 .4 2 .2 l . i 2 .2 1 .4 1 .7 1 .7 1 .4 1 .2 l.A A .f t 1. « 1 1 .7 1t* 4 -7 7 4- 7A 2 .1 2 .7 2 .1 2 .0 1 .5 1 .4 1. » 1 .1 1 .4 A t7 «• 7 0 5 -fi 9 -4 1 -f t 1 -4 1 .7 1 .2 1 .9 1 .1 A .4 l.A A .9 9. M 1 .A 9 .1 1 .4 1 .1 1 .4 A .« A .O A .« fl- 7 A .* A .« 4-75 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1-74 4 1-75 2-75 1-75 1 _ 119 r 1 1 9n .K | tO |r7 A T* At^ 4-77 A J A -A 1-77 lift .A 2 .i% -f .4 I —7B 2-78 1 - 7B 4-78 1-79 IN ITIA L QUARTER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS AMO 1ST 79, 191»----------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 PRO DUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION* AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE 1967-100 RATIO SCAIE SEASOMAllY AOJUSTEO 1967-100 220 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 MW t t MfAtîMMT » U M PfftCtNTAMS AAf AHN9AL «ATtS * CttAWt F M P f R I M t IMICATtl. LAîitT »ata n * r m < t m m a h t m faclimimasy P M F A K I IT FftCtAL f t t t t m I A M «F ST. i M I t UNIT LABOR COSTS, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR a m 5 f » CHANCE______ T f U U M IL QUARTfR 3 sl4 IN ITIAL QUA»T U ém?A__ IsZS__ 2clS__ V rTI 4itT*__ lsZ6__2*26__W76 4«7ft 1B4T U T 1 ..2 j J T H H 4«77__U 2 «ia — \mlà A sià ___ la .a 3-74 400- àmlà— u a . IS7.7 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-7B 4-78 1-79 IN ITIA L QUARTER PREPAREO BV FEOERAL KfcSfcKVt dANK OF S I . LOUIS AUSUST » , 1 0 » ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 M M m n o m L fro o u ct m c w w i t o o l la r i COWOUNOtD (PHMI. lU TtS OF CMMM I N D I A I QUARTfR TERMINAL 4 -7 4 1-75 | ^ 3 .Y £ 6*4 « ■ i I 3*5 | 0*6 2-75 6*4 6*5 1-75 2-75 1-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1-77 4 -77 1-78 2-78 1-78 4-76 U U JO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATCS 1-79 1,452.4 1,454*7 12.6 1 «496*6 ^ v J 3 -7 % 1-75 1,564*0 4 -7 5 1,598*0 10*9 Ü j 3 14.0 11.6 X 14.7 10.1 12.4 12.1 10.1 10.9 7.1 9 .5 10.0 11.6 11.4 9 .7 9 .9 7 .7 1-77 10.1 10.6 11.9 11.7 10.6 U .0 10.1 11.0 12.5 15.4 2 -7 7 10.4 10.8 12.0 11.9 11.0 lia 10.6 U .5 12.6 14.1 12.6 ^ g v . 5 % 1,676.0 1-77 10.5 10.9 12.0 11.9 11.1 11.4 10.9 11.6 U .5 U .5 U .5 U .l 1,410.5 4 -7 7 10.4 10.7 11.7 11.6 10.6 11.1 lè ^ u a 11.7 12a 11.2 10a 1-70 10.2 10.5 11.4 11.1 10.6 10.6 10.1 10.7 11.2 u a 10.5 9.7 6a 6 .4 2-71 10.8 11.2 12.0 12.0 11.4 lia 11.1 11.6 12.4 12a U .1 12a u a U .9 1—7# 10.9 11.2 12.0 11.9 11.4 lia n a 11.7 u a 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.9 U .9 15a .... \ 6-7 0 11.1 11.4 12.1 12.1 11.6 11.8 11.6 12.0 U .5 12a 12.5 12«4 u a U .4 15.1 u a 14a X 2,215*2 1-79 11*1 11.1 12.0 12.0 U .5 u a 12a 12*2 12.1 U .l u a 14.0 u .l u a 10.6 I 2,292*1 2 -7 * 10.6 11.1 11.7 11.7 11.2 11.7 [ l i a ] 11.9 * lia 11.1 11.4 11*6 12a u a u a u a u a 12.5 16.7 10.6 8*6 6 .7 1 -74 4 -7 4 1 -TS 2-75 1-75 4*71 1-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-78 4-76 1-79 1 -76 10.2 2-76 9 .8 1-7 6 1,651*7 X 1,681*1 6 .0 1,715*6 1,756*1 2-76 in it ia l 1,820*2 6 .7 1,971.1 \ 2,011.1 19.6 2,104*2 2,159*6 2,129*6 QUART« ___ _ ________ u m « f w n r t » M i o f SCFTCNOfR I t , W » ___ __________in itn tTt inni oqums COHFOUWOi O ANNUAL RATIS OF CHANM TERMMAL 4 -7 4 OOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTCR ~ 4 -7 4 2-75 4 -7 4 1-75 7 ML 1-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-78 4-76 1-79 1,199.7 -5 .5 ^ ■ V 1,171.6 1-75 h T * »l 2-75 —2*9 -1 . 6 1-75 0 .1 2 .1 M \ 7 .5 % 6 .4 4 -7 5 0#7 2 .4 6 .5 ■ 1 I 1,227*9 6a 1,259*5 2 .1 4 .0 2 -76 2 .4 1 .7 6 .5 5.2 1-7 6 2 .4 1*6 5 .9 4 .7 m 1,220.0 2a" 1-76 I 1,189.9 1,267*4 45 2a 5a 4-7 6 2 .6 1 .6 5a 4a 4 .9 1,277*1 ia 1*6 i* i X 1,288*1 ia 1-7* 1 .* 4 .2 6 .0 5a 5 .t 4*5 5*1 6.1 8*6 2-7 7 1 .1 4*2 5 .0 5.1 5.5 4*5 5*0 5 .7 6*6 1-77 1 .6 4*5 6a 5.1 5 .7 4*9 5a 6a 6*9 5 .9 7 .0 ' 4 -7 7 1 .5 4*1 5 .6 5.0 5 .1 4 .5 4*9 5a 5.7 4 .6 4*6 1-78 1 .4 4*1 5 .1 4 .7 4 .9 4 .2 4 .5 4 .7 4*9 4 .0 1*7 2.1 1.9^ 2-76 1 .7 4 .4 5 .5 5 .0 5.2 4 .7 4*9 5.2 5.5 4 .6 4.6 4.1 5.0 6.1 \ 1,115*7 4 .r 1,111*2 ^ 4 ,3 % 1,151*9 1,161*1 1,167*8 1,195*2 1-76 1 .7 4 .1 5a 6.9 5.1 4a 4.6 5 .0 5*2 6.6 4*5 1 .9 4 .5 5*9 1 .5 4-78 1.6 4.4 5a 4.9 5.1 4.6 4*6 5.0 4a 4.7 4.7 4a 4*6 5.6 4.6 5*6 1-79 1.7 4.2 5.1 4.7 4a 1 4.11 4*5 4 .6 4*6 4*1 4.2 1 .7 4.1 4.6 1 .4 1 .1 1 .1 1*9 4 .7 4.2 4a 1.6 *♦9 4 .0 4.0 1*5 1.4 2.9 1 .0 1.2 1.9 1 .4 -0 .6 -2 .1 1-74 4 -7 4 1-75 1-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-74 1-77 2-77 1-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-78 4-76 1-79 2 -7 9 2-75 1 1 in it ia l « u* 1,407*1 1,426*6 1,430*6 1 .1 V 1,422*3 t i* FRt FARIP IY » » » A L RIHRV1 iAHC OF IT > LOUIS StPTfMBf* 19, 1979 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O SCALE QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 2. 2. 2. 2 2.3 2.2 2. I 0 I. 1.1 I. 1.0 0.9 0 . 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 13 GENERAL P R I C E RATIO SCALE IN D E X * RATIO SCALE 1972-100 170 1972-100 170 ** 165 4lo S *0l 160 155 165 160 155 // 150 145 150 145 si? 140 140 135 135 130 130 125 ." .u A 125 r 120 120 // V 115 110 115 1 1O 105 105 ♦J 100 100 95 95 90 1 1 ì *At T 1971 1972 tsr 4JT.W 1973 1974 m m \*7T 'A Ti1 1975 1976 1977 1T 1978 1979 «A* « S M IH NATI MAC IN C «* ACCMNT » SMftCCt l . t . KPAJtTNCNT * PMCCNTAMS Aftf ANNSAL « A U S M CNANtC F M f U lO B t IN tIC A TC i. 90 CMNCftCt LATCST IATA U S T T t t t tN » N A I T U P t t f A M l »Y F I H I A l K t i m itrucncowpouwpgo mici pmATOft m m mmt f u t is TCW1NAI of chanm SANK « S t. I M I S m rasi. IM ITIAL QUAftTf* 5-74 4 -7 4 12 «4 1-75 11*4 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 4-75 1-74 2-74 5-74 4-74 1972 « 100 1-77 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-70 2-70 5-70 4-70 1-79 121*04 10*4 124*14 2-75 5 .2 1 5*9 v 5-75 7#* 4 .4 4-75 7*5 4*5 4 .0 1-74 4*7 5*0 5 .7 5-74 5-75 \ 5 .4 4*1 125*95 T .» \ 120*19 150*14 4 .2 4 .9 131*50 5*4 5 .5 4 .5 4 .) \ y * w /v 152*79 4*0 134*35 134*54 4-74 4*1 5 .5 5 .4 5*1 4*0 5*4 4*1 1—77 4*1 5 .4 5 .5 5.2 5 .0 5*4 4.0 4*0 2-77 4*5 5 .0 5 «« 5*4 5*5 4*1 4*4 4*0 4*1 4*2 4*2 4*2 r^ i 5 .7 5 .4 5.5 4*0 4.2 4*2 4*5 5*4 4*4 1-75 4*2 5 .5 5 .0 5 .4 5*4 4 .0 4.2 4*2 4 .5 5*0 4*4 *•* \ 147*05 2-70 4*5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4*1 4*4 4.0 7*0 7.2 7*0 7*0 0*5 150*02 4*9 7*0 7.2 0*0 4*7 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4*4 4*0 7.1 7*2 7 .4 7*0 • 7*5 7*4 4—70 7*0 0*2 0*0 7*9 0*7 N . 154*40 1 -ìt 4*0 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 7.1 7*5 7*4 7 .4 0*1 0*4 9*0 0*4 9*0 140*22 5-77 « 4 -7 7 150*54 140*43 7 .7 ' \ 4*0 " 1 5-70 7*4 \ 142*59 144*02 10*7 " \ 8 . 6 % 0*9 9*5 -f===X — — - 2 -W 5-74 4-7 4 1-75 2-75 5-75 4-75 1-74 2-74 5-74 4-74 1-77 2-77 5-77 4-77 i-T I 155*45 ___ > 2 -T t 1 -7 « 4-75 1-79 IMH1AL «M ftT « >Y W M M l fctSg*Vt SAMK OF ST» LOUIS serrcM K* 19# » 7 » 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATCS OP CHANCE 9ILLIONS OP TERMINAL IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-74 4 -7 4 3*2 1-75 6*0 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 OOLLARS 3-77 2-7? 4-77 1-70 2-70 3-70 _______ . BFIfWHk. IVUUL. . 4-70 1-79 916*2 0*0 V3*.7 2-75 0*3 10*9 13*1 ~3-75 9*4 11*5 12.0 12.6 9*0 11*5 12*4 12.1 l i *6 12.6 960.V 994.0 1*021.6 1-76 10*4 11*0 12*5 12 #4 13 »2 '*1-76 10« 0 11*2 » l l . 6 ~ 11*3 10.0 10*5 ~1P?6 10*0 11*0 U*4 4-76 10*2 11.2 11.5 11.2 11 «0 “T f T 10*6 11*4 1 1.« ÏÏ.6 10.3 11.0 11*3 ll.l 2—77 1-76 1*053.8 ---------- 7*0 1 *C73* 1 1 *10C.5 9*1 10*4 10*0 10*0 11*2 12*0 I M ïï* 4 To*9 10.7 10*9 12*0 12.9 13.0 10*2 10*9 11*1 10*6 ” ñ 5 1*190.5 1*220.6 “ ' 1*132.0 1*169.1 3-77 10*3 11*0 11*2 11*0 10*0 10 «7 10*3 10*0 10*9 10*6 9*0 10*5 "♦ -n ÍÓ .6 11.2 ÍÜ 4 11*3 ll.l 11*0 10*7 11*2 ~ ll* 4 ÍÍ* 3 10*5 12*0 1-7# 10^ 11*0 11*2 11*0 10*9 10.0 10*5 10*9 11*0 10*0 10*1 11*0 T i *2 2—70 10*7 11*3 11*9 11.3 11.2 11*2 10*9 11*3 11*5 11*4 10*9 11*0 3-70 10*0 Í Í . 3 11.5 11*4 11*3 11*2 11*0 11*4 11*5 11*5 11*1 11*0 12*2 11*0 13*2 11*9 U.O 11*5 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*2 12*6 Ï2.4~*13*5 Í3.1 14*2 11*0 11*9 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*1 12*4 12*2 13*0 12*5 12*0 11*4 10*7 Ì1 .2 ifa T 11*2 11*1 11*1 10*9 11*2 11*3 11*2 10*9 11*3 11*5 11*1 11*6 IÒ .9 Ï0*5 0*7 4-70 1-79 2-79 1-7? *-7? M S SrT* Ir ik . ■M * Mf 4—T6 1*259.7 ~ 13*4 12*3 1-77 Z r J L . M I 1*207.2" 9.0T 11*7 4 rT Ï 1*331*2 14*4 1-7# M i 1*369*3 1*415.4 1*454*2 6*1 1*475*9 Î-TÎ Vrli i-ia IN ITIA L QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES M 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE TERMMAL IN ITIA L QUARTER 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-74 -7*0 1-75 -2*4 2*3 2-75 0*6 4*6 7*0 3-75 1*7 4*0 6*0 5*0 4-75 2*5 5*1 6*0 5*5 6*0 6*6 6*5 7*2 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 1-77 4-76 OOLLARS 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-70 3-70 4-70 1-79 752.9 757.2 770.2 779.7 791.1 1-76 3*5 5*7 2—76 3*5 5.4 6*Ò~ 5*0 6*0 6*0 3*6 3—76 3*7 5.3 5*0 5 .6 577 5*é‘ 4*2 0*4 007.3 614.5 4*7 02470 4-76 3*9 5.4 5*0 5*7 5*6 5*7 4*1 5*4 6*2 1-77 4 .2 5*5 5*9 5*7 5*9 5*0 5*2 5*7 6*2 6*3 2-77 4*0 5*1 5*4 5*2 5*3 5*2 4*5 4*7 4*7 4*0 3-77 4*1 5*1 5*4 5*2 5*2 5*1 4*6 4*0 4*0 4*4 3*4 5*1 4—77 4*4~ 5*4 5*7 5*5 5*6 5*5 5*1 5*4 5*5 5.3 5*0 6*6 036.4 049.2 1*0 053.1 063.7 880 .9 0*2 1-70 4 .Ï 5*0 5*2 5*1 5*1 5*0 4*6 4*7 4*7 4*4 ~T.9~ 4*7 4*4 0 .0 “ 2-70 4*2 5*1 5*3 5*1 5*1 5*1 4*7 4*0 4*0 4*6 4*3 4*9 4*0 3*2 3-70 4*2 5*0 5*2 5*1 5*1 5*0 4*9 4*0 j * r ~~5*2* 4-70 4*4 5*1 5 .T ~ 5*2 ~5*2 1-79 4*2 4*9 5 .0 4 .9 4 .9 2-79 T .0 4*4 4*6 4 .4 “ 4 .4 4-74 1-7* Irli. 2-70 002.7 094.0 5*6 4*7 4*0 4*0 4*6 4*4 4*9 5*0 5*0~ 4.9 4*7 5*2 5*2 4*5 " 5*7 5*0 4*0 4*0 4*5 4*6 4*6 4*4 4*2 4*5 4*4 3*7 4*4 4*0 3*7 0*7 4 72 379 4 .0 3*9 3*7 3*4 3*6 3*4 2*6 2*9 2*3 1*4 -1*1 T T hZL. 9-75... 1=26-.JtrZt. -fc» w * M7 jan. _i=n_ 9-77 4* 0 1-71. .2-1*- Irli.. -2*9 905.3 920.Ï 921.8 915.0 4—70— 1-79 QUARTER ____ 15 m c r f l* » ftjLgfePtñftl SEPTEMBER 19* 1979 op S T ,. ¿ a u » . COHFOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 3-74 4 -74 M U IO N S OF OOLLARS AftftlAL MTfcjL. IN ITIA L QUARTER TERMINAL 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1-77 6-77 1-7 2-70 1-7 -0 .6 210*4 1-75 -2 0 .* -4 t * l 2-75 —21.8 —10.7 —5*5 177.7 1 7 5 .2 44.1 3-75 -1 .9 -2 .1 15.4 4-75 -2*6 -1 .1 20.1 15.4 -5 .5 1-76 7*1 8 .7 11.4 46.7 27.5 72.0 2-76 ••2 ♦ .7 28.0 10.1 23.2 40.7 15.2 1-76 ••1 ♦.1 24.2 11.2 14.0 20.4 11.0 4 .2 . 21.7 206T¿ 203.9 23d .5 241.9 7.0 246.0 4-76 •♦0 27.0 16.6 21.0 ♦.4 7 .4 7 .4 1-77 12.1 11.6 25*6 10.0 22.5 24.0 20.1 21.0 29.4 56.5 2-77 11.7 15.2 26.2 10.4 23.7 29.4 22.2 24.0 10.1 43a 31.0 22.6 250.7 260.4 300.0 3-77 14.4 15.4 25.0 24.4 23.6 20.4 22.1 21.7 20.1 36.0 26.8 4 -77 11.4 14.6 21.4 26.0 20.4 24.7 19.1 14.7 22.5 26.4 17.7 11.6 1.5 1-7® 11.4 14.5 22.5 25.5 20.1 21.4 10.1 10.0 20.9 23.7 16.6 12.2 7a 13.4 2-7# 14.7 15.4 21.4 26.2 21.4 24.5 20.1 20.7 22.0 25.5 20.0 17.4 15.7 23.6 34.7 315.7 316.9 327.0 352.3 3-78 14.0 15.1 22.0 24.4 14.4 22.5 10.4 10.0 20.3 22.2 17.3 14.7 12a 14.4 10.7 4 .5 4—78 14*2 15.2 21.6 23.4 14.7 22.0 10.1 10.6 20.0 2 ia 17.3 15.1 13.7 16.4 10.1 10.4 17.1 1 -T f 11.6 14.5 20.4 22 .4 10.4 20.5 17.0 17.1 10.2 19.4 15.5 13.4 11.4 14.1 14.3 0.2 10.1 3.6 2 -W 14.2 15.1 20.7 22.6 10.4 20.0 17.6 17.0 i t .a 20.0 16.5 14.0 13.7 15.4 16.4 12.2 14.4 13.4 25.2 1-74 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-70 2-70 3-78 4-78 1-79 156.2 370.5 373.8 395.4 IN ITIA L QUARTER MOSS PRIVATI DONI STIC IMVf STMffMT H 1472 DOLLARS COHPOUNOiO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANO« (> 1! BILLIONS OF OOLLARS IN ITIA L QUARTER 1-74 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-70 2-70 3-78 4-78 1-79 4-7 4 -U .f 170.6 1-75 -4 1 .9 -6 1 .1 134.6 2-75 -1 1 .1 -3 8 .9 -1 .0 3-75 -1 1 .0 -1 1 .0 10.4 76.0 153.7 4-75 -1 2 . • -1 2 .7 14.4 24.0 -1 1 .1 148.9 133.3 1-76 -2 .5 -0 .1 26.2 10.2 22.2 64.5 2-76 -8 .9 1.2 22.7 30.4 17.0 M a 4.5 1 -76 -♦ .7 1 .2 18.8 23.4 13.3 21.1 5.1 0 .4 4-76 -0 .2 1.5 16.4 20.2 11.3 10.0 4 .6 2.2 3.5 169.9 173.8 174.2 175.7 1-77 1 .2 5.1 14.1 22.0 15.6 22.0 12.4 13.4 20.2 34.7 2-77 4 .6 6 .5 14.1 22.4 16.1 21.6 11.6 14.0 19.9 24.1 19.3 1-77 5 .4 7 .2 10.7 21.5 14.0 20.6 14.0 14.4 10.7 24a 17.1 15.0 4 -7 7 4 .4 6 .0 16.1 10.3 133 16.0 10.7 10*4 11.0 15.5 0.5 3.4 191.0 199.6 206.7 203.0 -7 .0 1-71 4 .* 6 .4 15.0 17.0 13.1 16.1 10.9 11.1 12.9 14.4 9 .4 4.1 2a 12.4 2—78 5.6 7 .1 15.0 17.4 13.1 14 a 11.4 11.7 u a 15.0 10.7 0.6 6.6 14.1 15.0 3—78 4 .9 6 .2 14.2 15.7 11.7 14.1 4 .7 4 .7 10.0 11.4 7.9 5.7 3.5 7 .3 4.0 -5 .1 4—7 i 5 .0 6 .2 11.6 15.0 11.1 11.4 4 .4 4 .4 10.1 u a 7.7 5.4 4.1 7.1 5.4 0 .4 4 .5 1-7* 4 .7 5.0 12.7 13.4 10.4 12.1 0.5 0 .4 9.2 4.4 6.6 4.4 3.4 5.4 3.4 0.2 3 .0 2-7* 4 .9 6 .0 12.5 13.6 10.1 12.0 0.5 0.5 9.2 4.7 6.0 5.4 4.1 6.1 4.0 2.3 4 .0 " 4 . 0 8 .5 1-74 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 1-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 6-77 1—70 2-78 4-78 1-76 209.0 216.8 214.0 3-78 217.4 -0 .4 217.2 221.7 IN ITIA L QUARTER PREPARED 1Y M O itA L M tfK V I BANK OF S T . LOUIS SEPTINBER 19» l f T f 16 ssN w rn m n purchases op m o o t awo services m current pollans COMPOUNOEO M M M i RATES OP CHM M TERMINAL ftULUQN* OP OQLLARS I N IT IA L W M t m 4 -7 4 I “ 75 1 -7 5 4 -7 5 1-7 4 M 6 1 -7 4 4 -7 6 1-77 2 -7 7 J -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -79 2 -7 6 3 -7 « 4 -7 6 1 -7 9 517*3 1 -7 5 11*9 1 0 .9 2-75 11.5 10.6 10.7 5-75 11.1 10.5 10.5 9 .9 T i7 f 10.7 4-75 325a ' 10.7 10.4 11.3 1-76 10.0 9 .4 9 .0 6 .4 7 .7 2-76 6.9 6 .2 7 .7 7 .0 6 .0 3*4 2 .7 3-76 T .y 7 .9 7 .4 6 .7 5 .9 4 .2 4 .2 357.5 5.6 362.4 4-76 8 .5 6 .0 7^ 7.1 6 .5 5 .3 5 .7 7 .3 9 .0 1-77 6.6 6.3 0 .0 7 .6 7.2 6 .4 7 .0 6 .5 9 .9 10.9 2-77 9.1 6*6 6.5 6.2 6*0 7.5 6.1 9.5 10.9 n a 12.6 3-77 9 .1 6*6 6 .6 6 .4 6.2 7 .7 6 .4 9.5 10.5 11.0 11.1 9a 4-77 9 .4 9*1 9 .0 6.6 6 .7 6 .4 9a 10.1 11.0 11.5 11.7 11.1 12.9 1-70 9 .2 6*9 6.6 6 .6 6.5 6 .2 6.7 9a 10.2 10.5 10.4 9.6 9.7 10a 10a 9.4 9a 7 .7 6.6 3-76 9 .4 9*2 9 .0 6.9 6.6 oa 9 .0 9.6 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.0 10.1 9 .2 10.5 4-76 9.5 9 .3 9 .2 9*1 9.1 6 .9 9 .3 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.3 10.5 9 .9 11.1 12.3 12.2 1-79 9*3 9.1 9 .0 6*9 6.6 6.6 9 .0 9 .4 10.0 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.7 9 .1 9 .7 10.0 6 .9 2-76 370.3 360.0 391.6 400.5 412.6 419.4 4 .4 426*3 440.9 12.3 *53*6 5.7 460.1 2-79 446*6 1-7? 2-7? M ? M* V7* 1-74 2-7* M * *-74 .1-77 2-?I .1-77 4-77 _L tM J r l l l-li ..V-M 1-7? IN ITIA L QUARTER rvM m m w m w m COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE IN ITIA L QUARTER TERMINAL 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 OOLLARS 1-77 2-77 4-76 -0*3 1-75 "0*6 1*6 2-75 1*6 2*6 3*6 1-70 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 - ” 259a 261.4 243*8 3-75 2*1 2*6 3*5 3*4 4-75 2*2 2*9 3*3 3*2 2*9 0*7 -1*5 1-76 1*4 2*0 2*1 1*6 2-76 1*0 1*2 1*1 0*5 -0*5 245*7 -2 .1 244.7 242*9 -2*7 3-76 0.6 1*0 0*9 0*3 -0*4 -1*5 -1*5 -0*3 4-76 0.7 0*6 0*7 0*3 -0*4 -1*2 -1*1 -0*2 -0*2 1-77 0.9 1*1 1*0 0*6 0*2 -0 .4 -0*1 0*0 1.4 2*9 2-77 242.7 1*3 1*4 1*4 1*1 0*6 0*5 0*9 1*6 2*5 3.8 242*4 244.5 4.6 247.4 4.1 3-77 1-76 4-77 258a 4-74 4-77 3-77 1*5 1*3 1.7 1*5 1*7 1*4 1*5 1.3 1*3 1*1 1*0 0*6 3-76 1*5 4-76 iV t 1*7 1*7 1-79 1.4 1*5 1.5 1.3 1*2 2-79 1*1 1*2 1.2 1.0 0*9 1.5 1*4 1.5 2*2 2*7 1*1 1*7 2*0 3a 3.5 2.9 1.6 271.5 270.7 2.5 2.3 1.5 oa -1 .2 2a 2.1 ia 0.5 -o a 2.6 2.1 ia 1*4 3*0 5*1 274.7 2.1 1.7 1*7 2*6 3*5 " 1 .9 274.0 0*9 271.3 1*5 2*0 2*2 2.5 2.5 1*0 1*2 1*6 ia 2a 1.9 1.5 1.1 0*9 1*5 1*7 0.0 -1 .9 0*7 0*9 1*2 1*3 1.5 1.3 0.9 oa 0*2 0*5 0*4 -1 .1 -2 .6 1.3 -IM P U M . Q m T B I 274.7 -3.3" 272.4 ' M L 4-T3L 1-Ift 2-7# 3-78 4 -M _ i - i a _ M * . *-T±_ 1-75 2-75 M 2_ V'TJ--J=EL 2-74 1-7* -_±rT4 1-T7 . 270.3 PREPARED OY PEOERAL RESERVE RANK OP ST* LOUIS SCP7EN8ER 19# 1979 17 DISPOSABLE M&SONAL INCONg IN CUM PIT POLLM S COMPOUNDED ANNUM. RATES OFCHANfcE TERMINAL IN ITIA L QUARTER ttMRTE* 3 -7 4 4-74 4 -7 4 t —73 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1-74 2 -7 4 3-76 4 -7 4 1-77 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1-7$ 2 -7 3 3 -7 3 4 -7 3 1-7 9 BILLIONS OF OOLLARS ANNUAL K i m 4.3 1»016.2 1 -7 5 5*2 3 .7 2-75 12.4 16.1 30.1 3-75 10.1 11.2 15.1 ~~4—75 10.0 10. 8* " I S . 3* I »025.4 1 .0 4 5 .1 1.9 1»100.3 ------------ 3.7 1»125.8 1*152.2 2-74 1»170.2 3—74 9 .2 9 .4 10.4 7.1 B.O 7.2 3.1 4-74 9 .4 9 .7 10.4 7 .4 3 .4 3.2 9 .2 1»143.1 10.3 1»222.4 1-77 9 .4 9.6 10.4 7 .9 3 .7 3.5 9.2 9.3 9.3 2-77 9 .4 9 .9 10.4 3 .4 9 .3 9.2 9 .9 10.5 10.4 3-7 7 10.9 11*1 12.0 12.1 1*250.1 12.0 1*234.0 9.3 10.1 10.7 B.B 9 .7 9 .7 10.3 4 -7 7 10.0 10.2 10.9 9 .1 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.3 12.0 12.0 12.0 I —73 10.0 10.2 10.3 9 .2 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.5 11.1 10.3 2-73 10.2 10.4 10.9 9 .5 10.3 10.3 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.7 11.5 12.7 3-73 10.2 10.5 11.0 9 .4 10.4 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.7 113 11.5 12.0 4-73 10.4 10.7 11.2 9 .9 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.0 123 12.0 12*4 12.5 13.7 1-79 10.4 10.3 11.3 10.1 10.3 10.9 11.3 11.7 113 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.7 12.7 13.4 13.0 10.7 11.0 11.3 113 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.5 10.3 2-79 1-7? 2-7? ?-7? * rl> 1*323.2 1*341.2 1*395.0 1*437.3 11.4 1*474.5 1*5243 1*572.2 1*401.7 7 .7 TI..1-7*. 1-7» 2-7» . Ir7* V»7fr 1-77 2-77 1-77 IN ITIA L QUARTCR DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCONi IN 1972 DOLLARS CONFOUNOgO ANNUAL RATCS OF CHANCE BILLIONS O* OOLLARS IN ITIA L QUARTER TERMINAL 3-74 4-7 4 1-75 2—75 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 -3 .7 1-75 -3 .1 2-75 4 .9 9.4 23.1 3-75 2 .4 4 .5 3 .2 • -4 .9 4-73 2 .7 4 .4 63 -0 .5 4 .0 829.8 -2 .5 874.1 843.1 871.7 883.1 1-76 3.1 4 .4 6 .4 1 .4 4 .7 53 2-74 3 .0 4 .2 5.5 1.4 33 3.7 2*1 3-76 2 .9 3 .9 5 .0 1.3 3.5 3.3 2.3 2 .4 4-7 4 3.1 4 .0 5 .0 2.2 3 .7 33 3.1 3.5 887.7 893.4 903.3 4 .5 908.0 1-77 3 .0 3.3 43 2 .2 3 .4 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.3 2.1 2-77 3 .3 4 .0 43 2 .7 33 33 3.3 33 4 .2 4.1 4.1 3-77 3 .4 4 .2 4.9 6 .3 4.6 4-7 7 3 .3 4 .5 3.1 3 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .8 5.2 5.4 6.5 6.7 43 1-73 3 .7 4 .3 4 .9 3 .3 4 .2 4 .2 4.1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 5.4 5.1 43 2.0 2-73 3 .7 4 .3 4 .3 3 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4.1 4 .3 4 .4 4.4 5.1 43 43 3 .0 4 .0 3-73 3 .7 4 .3 4 .3 3 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4.1 4 .3 4 .3 4.3 4 .9 4.7 43 3 .4 4.1 921.5 934.3 9513 954.4 944.1 974.2 4.2 — — 991.5 4-73 3 .9 4 .4 4 .9 3 .7 4 .4 43 4 .3 4 .5 4 .7 43 5.2 3.0 4.7 4 .2 4.9 5.3 1-79 3 .3 4 .2 4 .7 3 .6 4 .2 4 .2 4.1 4 .3 4 .5 4.5 4.3 43 4.2 3 .7 4.2 4.2 4 .2 2.8 2 .3 '' 0 . 3 2-TB 2-79 1-79 835.1 4 -74 3.5 3.9 4 .3 3 .2 3.3 33 3.7 3.3 3.9 3.9 4.1 33 33 2 .9 3.0 3—74 4 -7 4 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-74 2 -7 » 3-74 4-74 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 _____ ________________________ ___ __________ L * n m w m M ___________ 3-78 2.1 4-73 994.4 -1 .4 993.0 1-1* ___ PREPARED BY FEQgRAL RESERVE BANK O f ST# IQ U IS - SEPTEMBER 19» 1979 18 compounded annual r a te s of chance T IM MAL ftMHTIft H BILLIONS Of OOLLAftS IM ITI AL «M K TW 4 4 -H 1-75 2-75 5-75 4-75 1-74 2-74 9-74 4-76 1-77 annual k a t is 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 5-78 4-78 1-79 73.5 4-7 4 -52*2 1-75 —44*6 -5 8 .2 2-75 -24*0 —22.6 59.1 6 4 .6 42*8 5-75 —5*6 8 .4 74.6 115.6 4-75 «0 .7 9.5 50.5 54.5 11.8 1-76 8*1 18.6 54.0 57.9 55.8 78.1 80.3 ' ~ 91.0 64.9 91.6 2-76 7*5 15.8 42.0 41.8 25.7 50.1 2.7 5-76 7 .1 14.5 55.2 55.7 19.0 21.5 4 .2 5.8 4-76 6*4 12.6 29.7 27.7 15.2 16.1 5.2 5.5 92.9 1.5 93.2 99.2 1-77 8*4 14.5 29.6 27.8 17a 18.4 9 .0 11.2 14.0 2-77 9*4 14.8 28.4 26.7 17.6 18.6 11.0 15.2 15.8 25.0 19.4 5-77 9 .8 14.7 26.9 25.2 17.2 18.0 11.5 15.4 15.4 20.5 16.8 14.2 4-77 9 .2 15.7 24.5 22.8 15.4 15.9 10.2 11.5 12.7 15.8 11.9 8.5 2*4 28.1 107.2 107.9 106.7 1-78 8.2 12.2 21.8 20.0 15.1 IS .5 8.5 9.1 9 .7 11.4 7.6 5.9 -0 .9 -4 .4 2-78 11.6 15.7 25.1 25.7 1*.7 18.4 14.1 15.6 17.1 19.9 18.5 18.0 194 28.7 75.2 5-78 11.4 15.1 25.8 22.4 16.8 17.5 15.4 14.7 15.8 18.0 16.4 15.8 16.2 21.2 56.4 122.4 124.4 7 .4 4-78 12.2 15.8 24.0 22.7 17.6 18.1 14.4 15.8 17.0 19.1 17.9 17.6 184 22.4 55.2 1 m 27.1 1-79 15.5 16.8 24.5 25.4 18.4 19.2 16.0 17.5 18.5 20.4 19.6 19.7 20.6 24.6 55.1 21.9 29.9 52.7 2-79 12.1 15.5 22.4 16.5 15.9 16.1 18.6 25.8 15.8 16.0 10.9 -7 . 4 5-74 4 -7 4 1-75 1-77 2-77 5-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 5*78 4-78 1-79 _____ 2-75 « .......................... 5-75 ... . 4-75 . - 1-76 2-74 5-76 4-76 _______ » f tT IA L W M U ft 152.3 142.0 .................................... -, ... 159.3 ...... >*»>>»■) »V H W M t > l « W i M i t M «»■ u « H s v r m H i*, » N SOURCES OP DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Source: 1929-72: 1973! 1974! 1975: 1976-78: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230 The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-74, A Survey of Current Business Supplement. Survey of Current Business, July 1976. Survey of Current Business, July 1977. Survey of Current Business, July 1978. Survey of Current Business, July 1979. The Survey is available from most district offices of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 19 . INVENTORIES COMPARED W ITH MONTHLY S A L E S * « R A T I O S BASED ON SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO O A T A . SOURCE: U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS R EP R ES E NT P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . L A T E S T D ATA P L O T T E D t JULY P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 20