Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1979
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nnTionHL Economic
PREPARED
Month Ending:
BY
FEDERAL
RESERVE
August 31, 1979
BANK
trehds
OF
Released:
ST. LOUIS
September 28, 1979
GNP expanded at only an 8.6 percent annual rate during
the first two quarters of this year» reflecting in part a
•lowing in money stock (Ml) growth. During these quarters, the
implicit price deflator rose at a 9.3 percent rate and real GHP
fell at a 0.6 percent rate. The money stock, without
adjustments for new means of payment introduced in November
1978, declined at a 1.5 percent rate during the five months
from October 1978 to March 1978, following a 7.8 percent rate
of increase during the two years ending last October.
In recent months, the economy continued to show signs
of weakness. Industrial production rose at only a 1.6 percent
rate from the fourth quarter of 1978 to the second quarter of
1979. From March to August, however, industrial production
declined at a 3.3 percent rate, putting the index lower in
August than in December 1978. Payroll and civilian employment
growth have also slowed markedly since March. Unemployment has
risen from 5.7 percent of the civilian labor force in March to
6.0 percent in August*
Inventories are at low levels relative to sales despite
evidence that they have expanded faster than sales in recent
months. The ratio of business inventory to business final
sales (both in 1972 prices) rose from .269 in the last quarter
of 1978 to .278 in the second quarter of this year. Except for
two quarters just prior to the 1966-67 slowdown, the ratio at
the end of 1978 was at the lowest level in postwar history.
The second quarter ratio is about the same as the average for
1973, a year marked by shortages and low inventory.
Prices continue to reflect the impact of substantial
increases in energy costs over the past nine months and the
pace of monetary growth over the past three years. Consumer
prices rose at a 12.7 percent rate over the three months ending
in August while producer prices rose at a 13.3 percent rate.
The producer price index for fuel and related products and
power rose at a 43.6 percent rate from November 1978 to
August. From June to August, these prices rose at a 77.1
percent rate.
TOTAL CIVILIAN KMPLOHNCNT
_________________ CONPOUNQgQ AWNIIAL M 71S OP CHAN8I
___________________________________
1-78
2-78
3-78
2-70
1 .6
W6
2 .9
3.1
w e
1 .4
44
5.6
4 -78
5—78
6-78
7-78
8-78
IN ITIA L NONTH
I
I
I
TEMINM.
nunin
9-71
1-79
THOUSANOS
OP PCftSONS
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-79
6-79
7-79
93447
93*282
93*7C4
5 «M
3 .6
44
4 .4
3 .2
6-71
4 .5
5.2
6 .0
6 .1
9a
7-71
3^
3 .6
34
3 .2
3^
-2 .4
o- t s
3.3
3 .6
3 .7
3 .3
34
0 .5
3 .6
f -7 $
3 .4
3 .6
3 .7
3 .4
)«4
1 .6
3.6
3.7
10-78
3 .3
34
3 .6
3 .3
34
1.9
34
34
3.0
93*953
94*640
94*446
94*723
95*010
95*241
11-78
3 .7
3 .9
4 .0
3.8
3«9
2 .8
4 .2
44
44
6.6
12-7$
3 .4
3 .6
3 .7
3 .5
34
2 .6
34
34
34
3 .9
14
95*751
95*855
1-79
3.6
3 .8
3 .9
3 .7
34
34
4 .0
44
4.1
4 .5
3 .5
5 .7
2-79
3 .7
3 .9
3 .9
34
34
3 .2
4.0
4 .1
44
4 .5
34
5.1
44
1-79
3 .6
3.8
3 .8
3 .7
3.7
3.1
3.8
3 .9
3.9
4.1
34
4.2
3 .4
4—79
2.8
2 .9
2 .9
2.6
24
1 .9
2 .4
24
2.1
2 .0
1.1
1.0
-0 .5
-2 .9
-0 .0
5-79
2 .7
2.8
2.8
2 .6
24
1.9
24
24
2.1
1.9
14
14
0.1
HI . 4
-3 .2
M
4-79
2.9
3 .0
3 .0
24
2.7
24
2 .7
24
24
24
14
1.9
1.1
0 .3
-0 .4
3.7
7-79
3 .1
3 .1
3.1
34
34
2 .5
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
24
2.4
1.9
1 .4
1.1
•-79
2 .7
2 .7
2 .7
2 .5
24
2.0
24
24
2.2
2.1
14
1 .6
1.1
0.5
| o »i|
1*11
2*71
J -f l
brim
7-71
•»71' 9-71 lt -7 1 11-71 12^71" 1-79
J -T T
4-71 ' '5—71
96*300
96*647
96*842
2 .4
t-IT
96*174
V . U .I70
X
96*318
54
96*754
44
5.7
5.8
97*210
24
2.4
0.9
96*900
4 -h
5-79
6 -W
t-T f
IIVII1AL MJNIH
*
wm OF S T . LOWS
S»P7»N8t* 7* 1979
p a tk d ll w m jn m m
CONPOUNOfO ANNUAL M m OP CNAN8C
TtMUNM.
nunin
2-78
3-70
4-7 8
5-78
6-78
7-78
0-71
2-78
4 .6
3-78
6 .3
7 .9
4-78
7 .6
9 .1
1 0 .»
5-78
6 .4
74
64
2 .8
6—78
6 .2
6 .6
6.1
4 .1
54
7-78
5.2
54
4 .7
2 .9
2 .9
8-78
6 .7
4 .7
4 .1
2 .6
24
1.1
14
9-78
4.1
4 .1
3 .4
2.1
14
0 .8
0 .9
04
I
I
IN ITIA L NONTH
1-78
9-78 10-78
1-79
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-79
6-79
7-79
THOUSANOS
OP HRSOIS
84*188
86*726
85418
85418
V
*
0 .5
85*996
86433
86*149
86*163
10-78
4 .3
4 .3
3 .8
2 .7
2 .7
24
24
34
5 .9
11-78
43
4 .5
4 .1
3 .3
34
2.9
3 .5
4.2
64
12-78
4 .4
4 .4
4 .0
34
34
3 .0
3.5
44
54
5 .0
34
1-79
4 .6
44
4 .0
3 .3
34
3.1
34
3 .9
44
4 .5
34
3 .4
2-79
4 .3
4 .3
4 .0
3 .4
34
34
3.6
34
4 .7
4 .4
34
3 .7
44
1-79
4.5
4 .5
4 .2
3 .6
3.7
3.5
3.9
44
4 .9
4*7
44
4 .6
5.2
6 .3
4—79
4.2
4 .1
3.8
3 .3
34
34
3 .4
3.7
4 .2
3 .9
34
3 .6
34
3 .0
5-79
4.1
4.1
3.8
3 .4
34
3 .2
3.5
3 .7
4.2
M
34
3.5
3.5
3 .3
6-79
_4*l
44
3 .0
3 .3
34
34
3 .5
3.7
4 .0
3 .8
34
3 .4
3.4
7-79
3.9
3 .8
3.6
3 .2
34
3 .0
3 .2
34
3 .7
3 .5
3.1
3 .0
8-79
3.7
34
3 .4
3 .0
34
24
34
3.1
3 .4
3.1
2.7
2 .6
-------------------1^ T >
F 7T
l» T I
4 - 71
5 -1 1
6 - 71
F- 71
8 - 71
f»W
86*573
64
87*036
U »H
87*281
^ T l
87*524
87418
88*263
\
88*248
,1 *5 %
1.9
44
34
24
JU 6 __3.1
3 .0
2 .7
1.9
24
1.9
0.7
2.5
2.3
1.9
14
0.3
l - TF l = ^
T -W
>
88*539
7f > W
88*764
» » 7»
88 413P
0 4 \
66*815?
T -T 9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 119111AL IU IIH --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------K* PH a ININA W---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------PWiPAWIU I T T 1D0 U C * B f* V € SANK OP S T« LOUIS
S V T I W C R 7* i f W
2
EMPLOYMENT
RATIO SCALE
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
RATIO SCALE
MILLIONS OF PERSONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
SOORCEt tl.S.OEPARTNENT OF LAOOR
FERCENTAOES ARE ANIMAL KATES OF CHANCE FOR PERI 00$ INO 1CATEO.
LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt AOOOST FUEL ININAHY
PREPAREO OY FEOERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOUIS
UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT
1971
SEASONALLY
1972
1973
1974
RATE
PERCENT
A D JU STED
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
SOORCEt O.S. OCPARTNfNT OF LAOOR
PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LAOOR FORCE
U T E S T OATA PLOTTEO« AOOOST
PREPAREO OY FEDERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOOIS
3
CONPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
1967*100
IN ITIA L MONTH
TERMINAL
1-76
2-76
4-76
3-76
5-76
6-76
7-76
6-76
9-76 10-76 11-7» 12-76
1-79
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-79
6-79
7-79
166.6
2-76
6.0
3-76
6 .6
9.3
4-76
9 .3
9.9
10.6
10.5
190.2
191.6
193.4
5-76
9.6
10.1
10.5
6-76
9 .7
10.2
10.5
10.4
10.4
7-76
9 .4
9.7
9.6
9 .5
9.0
7.6
6-76
9 .0
9.2
9.2
6.9
6.3
7 .3
195.0
196.2
197.3
6 .9
196.9
9-76
9 .2
9.3
9.4
9.1
6 .»
6.2
6.5
10.2
10-76
9 .3
9.5
94~
9 .4
9.2
» .9
9 .3
10.5
10 .»
11—76
9.2
9.3
9.3
9.1
6.9
»4
6.6
9 .4
9.1
12-76
9.1
200.6
201.6
7.4
203.2
9.2
9.2
9 .0
6.6
6.6
6.6
9.2
6.9
6.0
» .7
1-79
9 .4 ~ *9.5
9.5
9 .4
9.3
9 .1
9 .4
9.9
9.6
9.5
10*5
124
2-79
9 .9
10.1
10.0
10.0
9 .9
10.3
10.6
10.9
11.0
12.2
14.0
154
3—79
10.1
1 0 4 “ 10.4
10.3
10.3
10.3
10.7
11.2
11.4
114
12.5
13.9
14.6
13.5
212.2
10.0
205*2
207.7
209.9
4—79
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.6
10.7
10.7
11.0
114
11.7
11.9
12.6
13.9
14.4
' v N . j 13.9*
13.7 14.0
5-79
10.5
10.7
10.6
10.6
10.9
10.9
11.2
11.7
11.9
12.1
12.9
13.7
14.1
134
13.6
13.2
214.4
6—79
10.7
10.9
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.1
11.4
11.9
12.0
124
12.9
13.6
13.9
13.4
13.4
13.1
216.6
13.4
7—79
10.6
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.1
11.2
11.5
11.9
12.1
124
12.6
6-79
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.2
11.2
114
11.6
12.0
12.1
124
12.6
134
13.2
13«rl
12.6
12.7
1 2 .3 ^ ^ ^
216.7
134
13.1
13.0
12.6
12.7
12.5
124^
220.9
2 -H Jb IS
4-29
5 -2 »
lr-79
7—21------
4 -7 ».. .5 -2 » _4r2» 7-76. A«=7»_ 9-JUL jLfl-n 1 1 -2 » 12-2» -1=25
1-16.. 2 r2 ».
IN IT IA L H M m
♦CM*« FOR UR6AN MMf lAMKKS ANO CLERICAL WORKERS
>v w m m i if M t y g i A i t n » s r . i
SCFTENKR 26» 1979
wwow m m e t i wp i i » a l l m m u u r n is - 'snmoNALLv A c o u m o
CONFOUND» ANNUAL KATES OF CHANOC
TKRNINAL________________________________________________________ IN ITIA L MONTH_________ _____ _______
_
HONTN
1 -7 » 2-76 >->70 W l 5—7> » - 7 » T»T$ »-7 6 f - T I 10-76 11-76 I M S
1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79
2 -7 »
12 »0
» -7 »
114
10*6
4 -7 »
12*1
12*1
13.7
5—7$
11*2
10*9
11.1
»«5
6—7»
10*9
10.6
10.6
9*1
9*7
7 -7 »
9 .9
9 #5
9 .2
7 .»
7*5
5*3
0 -7 »
9.1
»♦6
6 .2
6 .6
44
4 .7
4.1
9-76
9 .2
» .6
» ♦5
7.5
7 .3
6 .5
7.1
__
5-79
_
6-79
1967 « 100
7-79
202.2
203.9
206.1
207.5
209.1
210.0
210.7
10.1________
212.4
214.6
10-7»
9 .6
9 .5
9 .3
» .6
» .7
6 .4
9.5
12.3
14.4
11-76
9 .»
94
9 .4
» .»
» .9
6 .7
9 .6
11.5
12.2
9 .9
12-7»
9 .7
94
9 .4
6 .9
» .9
6 .6
9.5
10.9
11.2
9.6 _
1-79
104
10.2
10.1
9 .»
9 .9
1 0 .»
10.»
12.1
12.6
12.1
216.5
9.2
216.1
13.1
2 2 1 .0
224.1
r- 7»
y>7 T
3 - 71
6—76" ~5—7» ' 6 - 7»
"7—71 6-76 “*-7» 10-7» U-71
Twr i m
I F T T W
W
l-W
4—7f
5—79
6-79
MJNIH
R-REVISED
W i BW »V M H U l » B K M
t P I I W W T , 1 »W
4
MNK Of S T. LOUI t
P R IC E S
RA TIO SCALE
O P IHI m
A U M t A N {M I M M I
s p i * « m * «m a n « a m l A M d t a
f U t t m m t A M A N M A L SATIS M
m
R ATIO SCALE
a n i Ca i m m u $
CMAWtf P M PtftlMS IMICATfS.
LATffT M T A fLSTTCSt A M M T
M t T A M S tY FfKltAL U H M
RATIO SCALE
PRODUCER P R IC E S
«AM *
St. I M I S
RATIO SCALE
r ( I C I N T M ( t A M A M W A l SATIS 9f CtfAMt F M M K f M S IM l CATC».
tATIST SATA PlSTTtSt A M S S T
M t ' A U S SY FtSCSAL DfSfAVt SANK ST ST. I M ' S
5
KMVOUCfcK PRICfc INOCXt INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COMFOUNPgQ ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6C
TERMINAL
IN ITIA L NONTH
1-78
2-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-71
1967 « ICO
9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78
1-79
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-79
6-79
7-79
7 .4
2C3.1
3-78
6a
5 .4
4-78
7 .7
7.9
204.C
10.5
205.7
5-78
7.9
8.1
9 .5
8.5
6-78
8.2
8 .3
9 .3
8.8
9a
7-78
8 .3
8 .5
9.2
8.8
9a
9 .0
8-78
e.a
8 .3
8 .9
8.5
8a
8 .3
7.7
w e
8*1
8 .7
8*4
8^
8*1
7*7
7.6
9 .0
8*7
8a
8*7
8*6
9.1
207.1
208.6
10-78
8*4
1W 8
8^6
12-78
8.5
8*6
9 .0
8 .8
1-79
9.1
9 .2
9 .6
9 .5
9a
9 .1
2-79
9.5
9 .7
10.0 10.0
10a
10.3
3-79
9 .9
10.0
10.4
10.4
10a
10.8
4-79
10.4
10.6
11.0
11.0
lia
11.5
5-79
10.5
10.7
6-79
10.7
7-79
8-79
8*5
210.1
211a
2 U .7
¿u a
10*6
216.2
8a
8*8
8.8
9 «!
9a
9 .0
9.8
io a
1 1 .0
u .i
10.5
11.0
11.7 11.9 1 2 a
14.9
14a
X
222.7
11.0
11.5
12a
12.3
13.2
14.9
14.7
14.9
225a
11.8
12.3
13.0
13.4
14.1
15.6
15.7
16.4
11.1 11.1 11 a
11.6 11.8 12a
12.9
13.2
13a
14.9
14.8
15.0 15.0 12.2
11.0
11.3
11.4
lia
11 a
12.1
12a
13.1
13.4
13.9
15.0
14.9
15.0
15.0
13.6
15.0
233.3
lia
11.5
11.9
12.0
12a
12.5
12.9
13.3
13.9
14.3
14.8
15.8
15.9
16.2
16.5
16.1
18.1
237.1
11.7
11.9
12.3
12.4
12.7
12.9
13.2
13.7
14.3
14.7
15.2
16.2
16.5
16 a
14.6
18.1
l» 7 T " y 7 l
3*78
4*78
5*78
6^71— 7- 78 ..8^71
8*1
220.2
n a
f —71 10-78 11-1»
— mi
iia l
217.6
1 6 .1 % —
17.8
* ** * * XL
230.6
19.7
18.0
240.4
12—71 1-79 2-79 1-7» <^Tf "3 ^7»~ &T9 T-79
m iiw
iw u u o u r p i i c r m i X t farm frooucts t iMtoctssco foods c f h o s - h a s . a o j.
______________________ CONFOUND» ANNUAL RATfS OF CHANCE___________
TERMINAL
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
—
non nr~
1-78 2-78
............
3—78
.i
4-78
5-78
2-78
28.8
3-78
30.8
32 a
4-78
29.9
30.4
28.1
5-78
23.3
2i a
u a
5 .4
6 -7 »
21.6
19a
15.8
10.0
14a
7-78
16.1
13.7
9 .4
3 .8
2.9
8-78
12.0
9 .5
5 .3
0 .3
»-7 8
13.3
11.2
10-78
15.2
13.7
11.2
8 .5
11-78
14a
U .I
10.8
oa
12-78
14.3
u a
10.9
9 .0
9a
1-79
15.1
14.0
12.2
10*6
u a
2-79
16.4
15a
14.0
12.7
13a
3-79
16.8
15.9
14.6
U .5
4-79
15.9
15.0
13.7
5-79
14.0
U .I
11.8
6-79
12.5
11.5
10.2
7-79
12.3
u a
8-79
11.2
io a
1-71
6-78
.
7-78
8-78
.
M IT1AL
MONTH
— . -
—
------------------------------------------- ------------------ -----
9-78 10-78 11-71 12-78
1-79
2-79
3 -7 »
—
4 -7 »
.
..
.
5-79
..
6-79
~ ..—
1967 • 10#
—
7-79
196.5
201.2
205a
206.3
-ia
208.7
-7 .8
207a
-» a
-» .4
9a
7a
U .6
27.2
32.0
9a
8 .0
12.3
20.7
u a
8a
12.2
u a
17.1
10.2
11.7
10.7
14.2
i»a
U .9
14.8
1 7 .»
24.4
U .4
16.8
21.8
21.7
1 ».2
22. »
2 8 .»
33.5
u a
14a
17.3
21.7
21a
1 ».6
22.5
26.4
27.3
21.4
12.4
u a
u .i
15.7
u a
1 8 .»
16.8
u a
20.3
18.9
U .2
10.7
u .i
io a
12.8
15a
14.8
U .5
u a
U .4
10.8
4.1
9 .1
9a
8.9
10.6
u a
u a
» .5
» .6
» .2
10.2
9.1
9a
8.9
10.4
U .4
u a
»a
» .5
» .2
6.8
9.1
8 .0
8a
7.8
» .1
10.7
7.7
7.4
7 .1
4a
■Z=7f~~ J —71” 4-71
5=71
6-71
T-7 1 H K 7 1 11-71 12-78
1 -7 »
205a
209.1
7-7T" • - H
» .7
214.0
8.7
2i s a
217.5
221.5
_
6a
226.9
_
230.4
3.7
2u a
-3 .4 -1 0 .4
229.2
0>5_ -5 .6
j^».9
^ »a
2.1
-2 .2
- 4 .1
-o a
8.8
0 .7
-3 .8
-4 .6
-2 a
l.l
-6 .1
3 -7 »
4^79
5 -7 »
'6-79
7-79
W
227a
228.9
227.7
FRXFARID 8V FKOCRAL RESERVE DANK OF S T. LOUIS
AUGUST 9 » 1979
6
i
I N D U S T R I A L PRODU CTION
RATIO SCALE
RATIO SCALE
1967*100
1971
1967-100
S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
PEftCEtfTACES Aftt AMNtAl RATES tf COAWSt P M PE* IM S INtlCATU.
LATEST SATA PISTTEit M U S T PRELIMINAAY
PREPARE# tV PEKftAL RESERVE IAMK M ST. I M I S
________ INOUSTRIAL PRODUCTION____________________________
CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
IN ITIA L MONTH
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
5-78
6-78
7-78
8-78
1 H T « 100
9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78
1-79
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-79
6-79
7-79
140*3
2 -T8
"2*6
3-78
~9* 3 ~16^5~
142*1
144*4
4-78
13*2
18*9
21.2
3—78
10*4
11.5
12.0
3 .4
4-78
10*8
12*9
11*7
7.3
11*3
10.3
7.V
9.1
8*1
144*8
146*1
147*1
8-78
7 .6
148*0
io*o
11*3
4—78
9*4
10*4
9 .4
7.1
8.1
7 .0
6 .*
5*0
10-78
9*3
10*2
9 .3
7.5
8.3
7 .6
7 .3
7.1
11-78
9*2
9 .9
9.1
7.5
8.2
7 .6
7 .i
nt
9 .3
8 .4
7.5
1-79
8*2
8.V
8.0
6 .6
7.0
6 .4
6.1
5*8
6.0
4.9
3.6 [ - ± .3
2-79
7 .9
$•3
7.6
6.3
6 .7
6.1
5.8
5.5
5.6
4.7
3*8
148*6
149*7
150*6
151*8
12-78
0.8
\
151*5
152*0
4*0
-
5—79
7 .9
8*3
7.7
6.5
6*8
6 .3
6*1
5*9
6 .0
5*4
4*9
3*2
6*1
4-79
6.1
6*4
5.6
4 .4
4 .5
3*9
3*4
2*9
2*6
1*5
0*3
-2*0
-1 .8
5-79
6 .4
6.8
6.2
5.1
5.2
4 .*
4 .3
4 .0
3*9
3*1
2*4
1*6
1*8
1*1
-2*3
13*5
4-79
4.2
6.4
5.8
4 .7
4.8
4.3
3*9
3.6
3*4
2*7
2*1
0*8
1*4
0*8
-1*6
6*5
7-79
5*9
6.1
5.5
4.5
4 .6
4.1
3*2
2*6
4 .é
5.0
4 .3
3.4
3.4
0*9
n
1*5
8-79
1-7$
2-78
3-78
4-78
3-78
4—78 10-78 11-78 12-78
1-79
¿*ê"
6-78
3*t
3 .4
¿«4
2.0
7-78
8-78
”T*t 1.6
2*6
0*3
(±3 •é*t
i
153*0
150*8
-4*6 -14*0
152*4
152*4
0*0
1*6
0*9
-0*8
4*9
0*8
-1*4
-3*3
0*2
-3*9
-5*8 -12*6
2-79
3-79
4-79
3-79
4-Tt
IN ITIA L MONTH
_ P - PRELIMINARY
_______________________ ;___________________ _______________
7
152*6P
130.9P
7-79
.
_________
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREPAREO BY PEOfRAL RESERVE PAN* Of ST« LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 14* 1974
)
..
PERSONAL
INCOME
RATIO SCALE
M O N T H L Y TOTALS AT ANNUAL
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
S EASONALLY AOJUSTED
RATES
RATIO SCALE
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SOiRCE: » . S . DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANIMAL RATES OP CHANCE POR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AOOOST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED DY PEDERAL RESERVE DANK OP ST. LOO IS
PERSONAL INCOME
CQRpowogQ annual m t i s o f
chance
BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
IN ITIA L MONTH
1»TS
_9 * 9
2 »TI
*
l» T S
4-78
5-78
4-78
T -T I
>»7t
9-78 10-78 1 H 8 12-TS
1-79
2-79
3-79
4-79
5-74
6-79
7-79
1*631.3
______________________________________________________
1*654.4
4—7B
15*1
17*8
17*3
1*676*5
5-76
13.3
14*5
12*5
8*0
6—78
13*2
14*0
12*6
10*3
12*7
7-78
14*3
15*1
14*3
13*4
16*2
19*8
8-78
13*4
13*9
13*1
12*0
13*4
13*8
1*687.3
1*704.2
1*730.0
8*1
1*741.3
9-78
13*0
13*5
12*7
11*8
12*7
12*7
9*4
10*7
1*756.1
10-78
13*6
14*1
13*5
12*9
13*8
14*1
12*3
14*5
1*761.0
11-78
13.7
14*1
13*6
13*1
14*0
14*2
12*9
14*5
12-78
14.1
14*5
14*1
13*7
14*6
14*9
14*0
15*5
16*5
18*3
1-79
13*3
13*6
13*2
12*7
13*3
13*4
12*4
13*3
12*5
11*5
2-79
13*2
13*5
13*1
12*6
13*2
13*2
12*3
13*0
12*3
11*6 „ M
3-79
13.3
13*6
13.2
12*8
13*3
13*3
12*6
13*2
12*7
12*2
4-79
12*8
13*0
12*6
12*2
12*6
12*6
11*8
12*2
11*5
10*9
9*1
10*5
9*9
5-79
12.4 _12*6
12*2
11*8. 12*1
12*1
11*3
11*7
10**
10*3
•±1
9.7
9*0
6-79
12*2 Jl??*
11*9
11*6
11*9
11*8
11*1
11*4
10*6
10*1
.• t «
7-79
12*4
12*6
12*2
11*4
12*2
12*2
11*5
11*9
11*3
10*9
9.8
8-79
12*1
12*2
11*8
11*5
11*7
11*7
11*1
11*3
10*7
10*2 1 9*3 1 9*9
1 .1
1 -7 «
Z-7Ü
3*TI
5-fO
O-fO
7—70
*— ro
I f 801.4
14*6
1*8^6.8
1*834.3
5*0 \
1*851.4
_ 11*8
_|4*3
IQ-7® 11-76 12—7®
9*9
10*7
1-79
10*5
1*872.1
— \ jy w
/o
1*880.7
6*4
1*891.6
7*2
8*0
8*9
9*5
10*8
12*7
16*^
.„ a .7
9*4
10.2
10*9
»
1*905.1
1*429.7
5 .4 \
1*938. IP
2-79
IN ITIA L NONTH
FMFARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER IB » 1979
8
RATIO SCALE
BILLIONS OF OOLLARS
PIlCtHTAQEt ARE AMWAL RATtf
R E T A I L SALES
RATIO SCALE
BILLIONS OF OOLLARS
S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED
M W C Et t . $ . KPARTNENT *
CHANCI P M PER I M S IN DIC ATO .
CMNKRCt
LA U S T RATA PLOTTEDt M Y , ADC9ST ADVANCE (STIMATE
P K P A U I RY K K R A l RCtfRVC RANK *
ST. LDMIS
RETAIL SALES
"O T W J U W tü ANWJAt AÀT6 S 0# t H W U
-------------------------------i n i t i a l m m -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
J U W lH k l
MONTH
1=71" 2-78
3-78 4-71 3-78 4-78
7 -7 3
o -t t
* -n
io -7 t 11-73 a - n
1= 7»
3- 7 *
m w
21*3
6*,é9é
.1 2 * W
"6 4 ^7 3
' 43,144
4-78 ” 22; 7 T T T " “E T 7 T
17 1
14
14*5
13 2
10 4
1=78
19« 3
14
3
12 3
9—TO.
13*4
14
10-71
15*5
11-71
12-ta
1-79
2=79
3-79
4-79
16*2
16*0
14*9
14
13
15
13
13
13
11
11
4 12
8 13
7 14
5 14
9 12
1 12
4 12
4 10
3 10
4 9
3 9
2 9
5 -7 i
18*6
TiSft
0#
4-79
3
63,322
63#944
13*7
19*9
6->9
12*1
11*9
lia
7-79
10*9
B—79
10«8 10
5—Y9
10
10
— s n r ■ <r:i~
66*224
11 «9
12*8
21*4
9
12*2
13 «3
18*1
14*9
3
4
3
8
1
4
3
4
3
3
4
13# I
14 «9
I4 * t
13*9
14*3
12*3
11*6
12*1
9*8
9*8
13*6
"IfiTT"
12*0
12*3
9*9
""9.9
17*T
18*9
1T*9
14*3
13*6
13*3
10*3
10*4
13*8
18*1
17*0
13*1
11*7
12*4
4*2
9*2
8*8
8 #9
9*2
8*1
8*8
8*8
4*1
8*8 _9;t
0*1
8*8
67,303
8*1
68 ,083
14*8
19*7
17*7
i2f;7
11*0
12*0
8*4
48,971
22*7
18*2 13*8
r v
11*4 8«1 1-1.1 ^
9*7 3*6 1*7 4*4
li*o é«3 6*3 10*3 'ir.rs. ......
.. ""
7*1 4*2 1*9 2*9 " 57i ^O.fs^ 3 ^ 7*
8*8
7*4
3*1 3*4 4*4 4*3 -1*1 9*8
7*J
6*2
4*1
2*3
3*1 ¿*9 -1*3 3*t - M S .
7*4
4*3 4*6 3*3 4*1 4*0 1*0 3*2 3*1 8*3
1 'l
7*8 6*7 3*0 1*»° 1 4*7 4*7 2*3 4*1 4*9 8*3 8 * ^
1-7
12—78
l» T t
3-79
4-79
» -T f
» -7 »
70,138
>0,918
70,833
71,122
72,043
71,366
71,914
71,803
72,283P
72,786E
T»Tf
IN ITIA L MONTH
P - PRELIMINARY
T = _5STIHAW>------
PREPAREO >Y PEOERAL RESERVE BANK OP ST# LOUIS
a n w u k i l » 1979
9
HOURLY COMPENSATION» PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
m m m B iTFs fy change _________
TERMINAL
-IN IT IA I QUABTEB
QUAR T E R
OUTPUT PfR HOUR OF ALL PERSONS» PRIVATE BUS IN K S SECTOR
RATOS om CHAMP»______________
IXBttUlM
QUARTER
M lIliL fll
1 -7 4
1- 7 «
9 —7 4
1967 i 100_____
um a.
1 .7 7
a-7 4
9 -7 7
4 -7 4
1 A O .A
1 -T5
lA o .m
- 0 .9
2 -7 5
1 *2
1-75
4.2
4—75
2.8
1-76
2-74
11.A A .
1 1 9 .4
I 9 .s l
t-z iz d
5.4
2 .1
1 .4
5 .9
4.1
2 .5
1 *1
5*0
1.4
2*1
4*4
l . i V
2 .B
2 .0
1 .1
1 .4
1 .7
1 .7
1 1 4 .4
-2 ^ ^ V ^
1 « . 7
11* .A
1 1 4 .2
1-74
1 1 4 .7
\
1 1 7 .9
4 -7 4
2 .9
4 .1
1 -7 7
1 .1
4 .1
1 .1
2 .4
1 .4
2 .1
2 .6
1 .1
4. 5
2 -7 7
2 .7
1 .5
2 .5
i.a
2 .5
1 .5
1 .5
1 .5
1 -4
4 .7
9.A
9.«
«.A
2 .2
2 .4
2 .4
2 .0
2.A
W 77
^
llft.%
1 7 «L
*
* .9
9 .4
1.«
2 .4
1 .7
l . i
I.A
l.A
0 .4
9 .9
• 1.«
>•7 «
2 .4
2 .4
2 .1
1 .4
2 .1
1 .4
1 .4
1 .4
i.m
0 .5
1 .2
—1 . A
—A . 7
J -7 *
2 .4
9 .0
2 .1
1 .7
2 .1
1 .5
1. «
1 .5
1.«
A .O
1 .5
A .l
A .A
U 7*
2 .4
2 .4
2 .2
l . i
2 .2
1 .4
1 .7
1 .7
1 .4
1 .2
l.A
A .f t
1. «
1 1 .7
1t*
4 -7 7
4- 7A
2 .1
2 .7
2 .1
2 .0
1 .5
1 .4
1. »
1 .1
1 .4
A t7
«• 7 0
5 -fi
9 -4
1 -f t
1 -4
1 .7
1 .2
1 .9
1 .1
A .4
l.A
A .9
9. M
1 .A
9 .1
1 .4
1 .1
1 .4
A .«
A .O
A .«
fl- 7
A .*
A .«
4-75
1-76
2-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
1-74
4
1-75
2-75
1-75
1
_
119 r 1
1 9n .K
| tO
|r7
A T*
At^
4-77
A
J
A -A
1-77
lift .A
2 .i%
-f
.4
I —7B
2-78
1 - 7B
4-78
1-79
IN ITIA L QUARTER
PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
AMO 1ST 79, 191»-----------------------------------------------------------------------
10
PRO DUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION* AND LABOR COSTS
RATIO SCALE
1967-100
RATIO SCAIE
SEASOMAllY AOJUSTEO
1967-100
220
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
MW t t
MfAtîMMT » U M
PfftCtNTAMS AAf AHN9AL «ATtS * CttAWt F M P f R I M t IMICATtl.
LAîitT »ata n * r m < t m m a h t m faclimimasy
P M F A K I IT FftCtAL f t t t t m I A M «F ST. i M I t
UNIT LABOR COSTS, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
a m 5 f » CHANCE______
T f U U M IL
QUARTfR
3 sl4
IN ITIAL QUA»T U
ém?A__ IsZS__ 2clS__ V rTI
4itT*__ lsZ6__2*26__W76
4«7ft
1B4T
U T 1 ..2 j J T
H H
4«77__U
2 «ia — \mlà
A sià ___ la .a
3-74
400-
àmlà— u a .
IS7.7
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-7B
4-78
1-79
IN ITIA L QUARTER
PREPAREO BV FEOERAL KfcSfcKVt dANK OF S I . LOUIS
AUSUST » , 1 0 » ----------------------------------------------------------------------
11
M M m n o m L fro o u ct m c w w i t o o l la r i
COWOUNOtD (PHMI. lU TtS OF CMMM
I N D I A I QUARTfR
TERMINAL
4 -7 4
1-75
| ^ 3 .Y £
6*4
« ■ i
I 3*5 | 0*6
2-75
6*4
6*5
1-75
2-75
1-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
1-77
4 -77
1-78
2-78
1-78
4-76
U U JO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATCS
1-79
1,452.4
1,454*7
12.6
1 «496*6
^ v J 3 -7 %
1-75
1,564*0
4 -7 5
1,598*0
10*9 Ü j 3
14.0
11.6
X
14.7
10.1
12.4
12.1
10.1
10.9
7.1
9 .5
10.0
11.6
11.4
9 .7
9 .9
7 .7
1-77
10.1
10.6
11.9
11.7
10.6
U .0
10.1
11.0
12.5
15.4
2 -7 7
10.4
10.8
12.0
11.9
11.0
lia
10.6
U .5
12.6
14.1
12.6 ^ g v . 5 %
1,676.0
1-77
10.5
10.9
12.0
11.9
11.1
11.4
10.9
11.6
U .5
U .5
U .5
U .l
1,410.5
4 -7 7
10.4
10.7
11.7
11.6
10.6
11.1
lè ^
u a
11.7
12a
11.2
10a
1-70
10.2
10.5
11.4
11.1
10.6
10.6
10.1
10.7
11.2
u a
10.5
9.7
6a
6 .4
2-71
10.8
11.2
12.0
12.0
11.4
lia
11.1
11.6
12.4
12a
U .1
12a
u a
U .9
1—7#
10.9
11.2
12.0
11.9
11.4
lia
n a
11.7
u a
12.5
12.1
11.9
11.9
U .9
15a
....
\
6-7 0
11.1
11.4
12.1
12.1
11.6
11.8
11.6
12.0
U .5
12a
12.5
12«4
u a
U .4
15.1
u a
14a
X
2,215*2
1-79
11*1
11.1
12.0
12.0
U .5
u a
12a
12*2
12.1
U .l
u a
14.0
u .l
u a
10.6 I
2,292*1
2 -7 *
10.6
11.1
11.7
11.7
11.2
11.7 [ l i a ] 11.9
*
lia
11.1 11.4
11*6
12a
u a
u a
u a
u a
12.5
16.7
10.6
8*6
6 .7
1 -74
4 -7 4
1 -TS
2-75
1-75
4*71
1-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
1-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
1-78
4-76
1-79
1 -76
10.2
2-76
9 .8
1-7 6
1,651*7
X
1,681*1
6 .0
1,715*6
1,756*1
2-76
in it ia l
1,820*2
6 .7
1,971.1
\
2,011.1
19.6
2,104*2
2,159*6
2,129*6
QUART«
___ _
________ u m « f w n r t » M i o f
SCFTCNOfR I t , W »
___ __________in itn
tTt inni
oqums
COHFOUWOi O ANNUAL RATIS OF CHANM
TERMMAL
4 -7 4
OOLLARS
IN IT IA L QUARTCR
~ 4 -7 4
2-75
4 -7 4 1-75
7 ML
1-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
1-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
1-78
4-76
1-79
1,199.7
-5 .5 ^
■ V
1,171.6
1-75
h T * »l
2-75
—2*9
-1 . 6
1-75
0 .1
2 .1
M \ 7 .5 %
6 .4
4 -7 5
0#7
2 .4
6 .5
■
1
I
1,227*9
6a
1,259*5
2 .1
4 .0
2 -76
2 .4
1 .7
6 .5
5.2
1-7 6
2 .4
1*6
5 .9
4 .7
m
1,220.0
2a"
1-76
I
1,189.9
1,267*4
45
2a
5a
4-7 6
2 .6
1 .6
5a
4a
4 .9
1,277*1
ia
1*6
i* i
X
1,288*1
ia
1-7*
1 .*
4 .2
6 .0
5a
5 .t
4*5
5*1
6.1
8*6
2-7 7
1 .1
4*2
5 .0
5.1
5.5
4*5
5*0
5 .7
6*6
1-77
1 .6
4*5
6a
5.1
5 .7
4*9
5a
6a
6*9
5 .9
7 .0 '
4 -7 7
1 .5
4*1
5 .6
5.0
5 .1
4 .5
4*9
5a
5.7
4 .6
4*6
1-78
1 .4
4*1
5 .1
4 .7
4 .9
4 .2
4 .5
4 .7
4*9
4 .0
1*7
2.1
1.9^
2-76
1 .7
4 .4
5 .5
5 .0
5.2
4 .7
4*9
5.2
5.5
4 .6
4.6
4.1
5.0
6.1
\
1,115*7
4 .r
1,111*2
^ 4 ,3 %
1,151*9
1,161*1
1,167*8
1,195*2
1-76
1 .7
4 .1
5a
6.9
5.1
4a
4.6
5 .0
5*2
6.6
4*5
1 .9
4 .5
5*9
1 .5
4-78
1.6
4.4
5a
4.9
5.1
4.6
4*6
5.0
4a
4.7
4.7
4a
4*6
5.6
4.6
5*6
1-79
1.7
4.2
5.1
4.7
4a
1 4.11 4*5
4 .6
4*6
4*1
4.2
1 .7
4.1
4.6
1 .4
1 .1
1 .1
1*9
4 .7
4.2
4a
1.6
*♦9
4 .0
4.0
1*5
1.4
2.9
1 .0
1.2
1.9
1 .4
-0 .6
-2 .1
1-74
4 -7 4
1-75
1-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
1-76
4-74
1-77
2-77
1-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
1-78
4-76
1-79
2 -7 9
2-75
1
1
in it ia l
« u*
1,407*1
1,426*6
1,430*6
1 .1 V
1,422*3
t i*
FRt FARIP IY » » » A L RIHRV1 iAHC OF IT > LOUIS
StPTfMBf* 19, 1979
12
GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
R A T I O SCALE
QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
R A T I O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
2.
2.
2.
2
2.3
2.2
2. I
0
I.
1.1
I.
1.0
0.9
0 .
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D .
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
13
GENERAL P R I C E
RATIO SCALE
IN D E X *
RATIO SCALE
1972-100
170
1972-100
170
**
165
4lo S *0l
160
155
165
160
155
//
150
145
150
145
si?
140
140
135
135
130
130
125
." .u A
125
r
120
120
//
V
115
110
115
1 1O
105
105
♦J
100
100
95
95
90 1
1
ì *At
T
1971
1972
tsr 4JT.W
1973
1974
m m \*7T
'A
Ti1
1975
1976
1977
1T
1978
1979
«A* « S M IH NATI MAC IN C «* ACCMNT »
SMftCCt l . t . KPAJtTNCNT *
PMCCNTAMS Aftf ANNSAL « A U S M CNANtC F M f U lO B t IN tIC A TC i.
90
CMNCftCt
LATCST IATA U S T T t t t tN » N A I T U
P t t f A M l »Y F I H I A l K t i m
itrucncowpouwpgo
mici pmATOft
m
m mmt f u t is
TCW1NAI
of chanm
SANK «
S t. I M I S
m rasi.
IM ITIAL QUAftTf*
5-74
4 -7 4
12 «4
1-75
11*4
4 -7 4
1-75
2-75
4-75
1-74
2-74
5-74
4-74
1972 « 100
1-77
2-77
5-77
4-77
1-70
2-70
5-70
4-70
1-79
121*04
10*4
124*14
2-75
5 .2 1 5*9 v
5-75
7#*
4 .4
4-75
7*5
4*5
4 .0
1-74
4*7
5*0
5 .7
5-74
5-75
\
5 .4
4*1
125*95
T .»
\
120*19
150*14
4 .2
4 .9
131*50
5*4
5 .5
4 .5
4 .)
\ y * w /v
152*79
4*0
134*35
134*54
4-74
4*1
5 .5
5 .4
5*1
4*0
5*4
4*1
1—77
4*1
5 .4
5 .5
5.2
5 .0
5*4
4.0
4*0
2-77
4*5
5 .0
5 ««
5*4
5*5
4*1
4*4
4*0
4*1
4*2
4*2
4*2
r^ i
5 .7
5 .4
5.5
4*0
4.2
4*2
4*5
5*4
4*4
1-75
4*2
5 .5
5 .0
5 .4
5*4
4 .0
4.2
4*2
4 .5
5*0
4*4
*•* \
147*05
2-70
4*5
4 .2
4 .2
4 .1
4*1
4*4
4.0
7*0
7.2
7*0
7*0
0*5
150*02
4*9
7*0
7.2
0*0
4*7
4 .4
4 .4
4 .4
4*4
4*0
7.1
7*2
7 .4
7*0
•
7*5
7*4
4—70
7*0
0*2
0*0
7*9
0*7 N .
154*40
1 -ìt
4*0
4 .4
4 .4
4 .4
4 .4
7.1
7*5
7*4
7 .4
0*1
0*4
9*0
0*4
9*0
140*22
5-77
«
4 -7 7
150*54
140*43
7 .7 '
\
4*0
" 1
5-70
7*4
\
142*59
144*02
10*7 " \ 8 . 6 %
0*9
9*5
-f===X — — -
2 -W
5-74
4-7 4
1-75
2-75
5-75
4-75
1-74
2-74
5-74
4-74
1-77
2-77
5-77
4-77
i-T I
155*45
___
>
2 -T t
1 -7 «
4-75
1-79
IMH1AL «M ftT «
>Y W M M l fctSg*Vt SAMK OF ST» LOUIS
serrcM K* 19# » 7 »
14
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATCS OP CHANCE
9ILLIONS OP
TERMINAL
IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-74
4 -7 4
3*2
1-75
6*0
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
OOLLARS
3-77
2-7?
4-77
1-70
2-70
3-70
_______
. BFIfWHk. IVUUL. .
4-70 1-79
916*2
0*0
V3*.7
2-75
0*3
10*9
13*1
~3-75
9*4
11*5
12.0
12.6
9*0
11*5
12*4
12.1
l i *6
12.6
960.V
994.0
1*021.6
1-76
10*4
11*0
12*5
12 #4
13 »2
'*1-76
10« 0
11*2 » l l . 6 ~ 11*3
10.0
10*5
~1P?6
10*0
11*0
U*4
4-76
10*2
11.2
11.5
11.2
11 «0
“T f T
10*6
11*4
1 1.«
ÏÏ.6
10.3
11.0
11*3
ll.l
2—77
1-76
1*053.8
----------
7*0
1 *C73* 1
1 *10C.5
9*1
10*4
10*0
10*0
11*2
12*0
I M ïï* 4
To*9 10.7
10*9
12*0
12.9
13.0
10*2
10*9
11*1
10*6 ” ñ 5
1*190.5
1*220.6
“
'
1*132.0
1*169.1
3-77
10*3
11*0
11*2
11*0
10*0
10 «7
10*3
10*0
10*9
10*6
9*0
10*5
"♦ -n
ÍÓ .6
11.2
ÍÜ 4
11*3
ll.l
11*0
10*7
11*2 ~ ll* 4
ÍÍ* 3
10*5
12*0
1-7#
10^
11*0
11*2
11*0
10*9
10.0
10*5
10*9
11*0
10*0
10*1
11*0 T i *2
2—70
10*7
11*3
11*9
11.3
11.2
11*2
10*9
11*3
11*5
11*4
10*9
11*0
3-70
10*0 Í Í . 3 11.5 11*4 11*3 11*2 11*0 11*4 11*5 11*5 11*1 11*0 12*2 11*0 13*2 11*9
U.O 11*5 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*2 12*6 Ï2.4~*13*5 Í3.1 14*2
11*0 11*9 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*1 12*4 12*2 13*0 12*5 12*0 11*4
10*7 Ì1 .2 ifa T 11*2 11*1 11*1 10*9 11*2 11*3 11*2 10*9 11*3 11*5 11*1 11*6 IÒ .9 Ï0*5 0*7
4-70
1-79
2-79
1-7? *-7? M S
SrT*
Ir ik .
■M *
Mf
4—T6
1*259.7 ~
13*4
12*3
1-77 Z r J L . M I
1*207.2"
9.0T
11*7
4 rT Ï
1*331*2
14*4
1-7# M i
1*369*3
1*415.4
1*454*2
6*1
1*475*9
Î-TÎ Vrli i-ia
IN ITIA L QUARTER
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES M 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE
TERMMAL
IN ITIA L QUARTER
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-74
-7*0
1-75
-2*4
2*3
2-75
0*6
4*6
7*0
3-75
1*7
4*0
6*0
5*0
4-75
2*5
5*1
6*0
5*5
6*0
6*6
6*5
7*2
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
1-77
4-76
OOLLARS
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-70
3-70
4-70
1-79
752.9
757.2
770.2
779.7
791.1
1-76
3*5
5*7
2—76
3*5
5.4
6*Ò~
5*0
6*0
6*0
3*6
3—76
3*7
5.3
5*0
5 .6
577
5*é‘
4*2
0*4
007.3
614.5
4*7
02470
4-76
3*9
5.4
5*0
5*7
5*6
5*7
4*1
5*4
6*2
1-77
4 .2
5*5
5*9
5*7
5*9
5*0
5*2
5*7
6*2
6*3
2-77
4*0
5*1
5*4
5*2
5*3
5*2
4*5
4*7
4*7
4*0
3-77
4*1
5*1
5*4
5*2
5*2
5*1
4*6
4*0
4*0
4*4
3*4
5*1
4—77
4*4~
5*4
5*7
5*5
5*6
5*5
5*1
5*4
5*5
5.3
5*0
6*6
036.4
049.2
1*0
053.1
063.7
880 .9
0*2
1-70
4 .Ï
5*0
5*2
5*1
5*1
5*0
4*6
4*7
4*7
4*4
~T.9~
4*7
4*4
0 .0 “
2-70
4*2
5*1
5*3
5*1
5*1
5*1
4*7
4*0
4*0
4*6
4*3
4*9
4*0
3*2
3-70
4*2
5*0
5*2
5*1
5*1
5*0
4*9
4*0
j * r ~~5*2*
4-70
4*4
5*1
5 .T ~
5*2
~5*2
1-79
4*2
4*9
5 .0
4 .9
4 .9
2-79
T .0
4*4
4*6
4 .4 “ 4 .4
4-74
1-7*
Irli.
2-70
002.7
094.0
5*6
4*7
4*0
4*0
4*6
4*4
4*9
5*0
5*0~
4.9
4*7
5*2
5*2
4*5 " 5*7
5*0
4*0
4*0
4*5
4*6
4*6
4*4
4*2
4*5
4*4
3*7
4*4
4*0
3*7
0*7
4 72
379
4 .0
3*9
3*7
3*4
3*6
3*4
2*6
2*9
2*3
1*4
-1*1
T T
hZL. 9-75... 1=26-.JtrZt. -fc» w *
M7
jan. _i=n_ 9-77
4* 0
1-71. .2-1*- Irli..
-2*9
905.3
920.Ï
921.8
915.0
4—70— 1-79
QUARTER
____
15
m c r f l* » ftjLgfePtñftl
SEPTEMBER 19* 1979
op S T ,. ¿ a u » .
COHFOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
3-74
4 -74
M U IO N S OF
OOLLARS
AftftlAL MTfcjL.
IN ITIA L QUARTER
TERMINAL
4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
1-77
6-77
1-7
2-70
1-7
-0 .6
210*4
1-75
-2 0 .* -4 t * l
2-75
—21.8 —10.7
—5*5
177.7
1 7 5 .2
44.1
3-75
-1 .9
-2 .1
15.4
4-75
-2*6
-1 .1
20.1
15.4
-5 .5
1-76
7*1
8 .7
11.4
46.7
27.5
72.0
2-76
••2
♦ .7
28.0
10.1
23.2
40.7
15.2
1-76
••1
♦.1
24.2
11.2
14.0
20.4
11.0
4 .2 . 21.7
206T¿
203.9
23d .5
241.9
7.0
246.0
4-76
•♦0
27.0
16.6
21.0
♦.4
7 .4
7 .4
1-77
12.1
11.6
25*6
10.0
22.5
24.0
20.1
21.0
29.4
56.5
2-77
11.7
15.2
26.2
10.4
23.7
29.4
22.2
24.0
10.1
43a
31.0
22.6
250.7
260.4
300.0
3-77
14.4
15.4
25.0
24.4
23.6
20.4
22.1
21.7
20.1
36.0
26.8
4 -77
11.4
14.6
21.4
26.0
20.4
24.7
19.1
14.7
22.5
26.4
17.7
11.6
1.5
1-7®
11.4
14.5
22.5
25.5
20.1
21.4
10.1
10.0
20.9
23.7
16.6
12.2
7a
13.4
2-7#
14.7
15.4
21.4
26.2
21.4
24.5
20.1
20.7
22.0
25.5
20.0
17.4
15.7
23.6
34.7
315.7
316.9
327.0
352.3
3-78
14.0
15.1
22.0
24.4
14.4
22.5
10.4
10.0
20.3
22.2
17.3
14.7
12a
14.4
10.7
4 .5
4—78
14*2
15.2
21.6
23.4
14.7
22.0
10.1
10.6
20.0
2 ia
17.3
15.1
13.7
16.4
10.1
10.4
17.1
1 -T f
11.6
14.5
20.4
22 .4
10.4
20.5
17.0
17.1
10.2
19.4
15.5
13.4
11.4
14.1
14.3
0.2
10.1
3.6
2 -W
14.2
15.1
20.7
22.6
10.4
20.0
17.6
17.0
i t .a
20.0
16.5
14.0
13.7
15.4
16.4
12.2
14.4
13.4
25.2
1-74
4 -7 4
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-70
2-70
3-78
4-78
1-79
156.2
370.5
373.8
395.4
IN ITIA L QUARTER
MOSS PRIVATI DONI STIC IMVf STMffMT H 1472 DOLLARS
COHPOUNOiO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANO«
(>
1!
BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
IN ITIA L QUARTER
1-74
4 -7 4
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-70
2-70
3-78
4-78
1-79
4-7 4
-U .f
170.6
1-75
-4 1 .9 -6 1 .1
134.6
2-75
-1 1 .1 -3 8 .9
-1 .0
3-75
-1 1 .0 -1 1 .0
10.4
76.0
153.7
4-75
-1 2 . • -1 2 .7
14.4
24.0 -1 1 .1
148.9
133.3
1-76
-2 .5
-0 .1
26.2
10.2
22.2
64.5
2-76
-8 .9
1.2
22.7
30.4
17.0
M a
4.5
1 -76
-♦ .7
1 .2
18.8
23.4
13.3
21.1
5.1
0 .4
4-76
-0 .2
1.5
16.4
20.2
11.3
10.0
4 .6
2.2
3.5
169.9
173.8
174.2
175.7
1-77
1 .2
5.1
14.1
22.0
15.6
22.0
12.4
13.4
20.2
34.7
2-77
4 .6
6 .5
14.1
22.4
16.1
21.6
11.6
14.0
19.9
24.1
19.3
1-77
5 .4
7 .2
10.7
21.5
14.0
20.6
14.0
14.4
10.7
24a
17.1
15.0
4 -7 7
4 .4
6 .0
16.1
10.3
133
16.0
10.7
10*4
11.0
15.5
0.5
3.4
191.0
199.6
206.7
203.0
-7 .0
1-71
4 .*
6 .4
15.0
17.0
13.1
16.1
10.9
11.1
12.9
14.4
9 .4
4.1
2a
12.4
2—78
5.6
7 .1
15.0
17.4
13.1
14 a
11.4
11.7
u a
15.0
10.7
0.6
6.6
14.1
15.0
3—78
4 .9
6 .2
14.2
15.7
11.7
14.1
4 .7
4 .7
10.0
11.4
7.9
5.7
3.5
7 .3
4.0
-5 .1
4—7 i
5 .0
6 .2
11.6
15.0
11.1
11.4
4 .4
4 .4
10.1
u a
7.7
5.4
4.1
7.1
5.4
0 .4
4 .5
1-7*
4 .7
5.0
12.7
13.4
10.4
12.1
0.5
0 .4
9.2
4.4
6.6
4.4
3.4
5.4
3.4
0.2
3 .0
2-7*
4 .9
6 .0
12.5
13.6
10.1
12.0
0.5
0.5
9.2
4.7
6.0
5.4
4.1
6.1
4.0
2.3
4 .0 " 4 . 0
8 .5
1-74
4 -7 4
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
1-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
6-77
1—70
2-78
4-78
1-76
209.0
216.8
214.0
3-78
217.4
-0 .4
217.2
221.7
IN ITIA L QUARTER
PREPARED 1Y M O itA L M tfK V I BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTINBER 19» l f T f
16
ssN w rn m n purchases op m o o t awo services m current pollans
COMPOUNOEO M M M i RATES OP CHM M
TERMINAL
ftULUQN* OP
OQLLARS
I N IT IA L W M t m
4 -7 4
I “ 75
1 -7 5
4 -7 5
1-7 4
M 6
1 -7 4
4 -7 6
1-77
2 -7 7
J -7 7
4 -7 7
1 -79
2 -7 6
3 -7 «
4 -7 6
1 -7 9
517*3
1 -7 5
11*9
1 0 .9
2-75
11.5
10.6
10.7
5-75
11.1
10.5
10.5
9 .9
T i7 f 10.7
4-75
325a '
10.7
10.4
11.3
1-76
10.0
9 .4
9 .0
6 .4
7 .7
2-76
6.9
6 .2
7 .7
7 .0
6 .0
3*4
2 .7
3-76
T .y
7 .9
7 .4
6 .7
5 .9
4 .2
4 .2
357.5
5.6
362.4
4-76
8 .5
6 .0
7^
7.1
6 .5
5 .3
5 .7
7 .3
9 .0
1-77
6.6
6.3
0 .0
7 .6
7.2
6 .4
7 .0
6 .5
9 .9
10.9
2-77
9.1
6*6
6.5
6.2
6*0
7.5
6.1
9.5
10.9
n a
12.6
3-77
9 .1
6*6
6 .6
6 .4
6.2
7 .7
6 .4
9.5
10.5
11.0
11.1
9a
4-77
9 .4
9*1
9 .0
6.6
6 .7
6 .4
9a
10.1
11.0
11.5
11.7
11.1
12.9
1-70
9 .2
6*9
6.6
6 .6
6.5
6 .2
6.7
9a
10.2
10.5
10.4
9.6
9.7
10a
10a
9.4
9a
7 .7
6.6
3-76
9 .4
9*2
9 .0
6.9
6.6
oa
9 .0
9.6
10.3
10.5
10.4
10.0
10.1
9 .2
10.5
4-76
9.5
9 .3
9 .2
9*1
9.1
6 .9
9 .3
10.0
10.5
10.7
10.7
10.3
10.5
9 .9
11.1
12.3
12.2
1-79
9*3
9.1
9 .0
6*9
6.6
6.6
9 .0
9 .4
10.0
10.1
10.0
9.6
9.7
9 .1
9 .7
10.0
6 .9
2-76
370.3
360.0
391.6
400.5
412.6
419.4
4 .4
426*3
440.9
12.3
*53*6
5.7
460.1
2-79
446*6
1-7? 2-7? M ?
M*
V7*
1-74 2-7* M *
*-74 .1-77 2-?I .1-77 4-77 _L tM J r l l
l-li
..V-M 1-7?
IN ITIA L QUARTER
rvM m m w m w m
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE
IN ITIA L QUARTER
TERMINAL
3-74 4-74
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
OOLLARS
1-77 2-77
4-76
-0*3
1-75
"0*6
1*6
2-75
1*6
2*6
3*6
1-70
2-78
3-78
4-78
1-79
-
” 259a
261.4
243*8
3-75
2*1
2*6
3*5
3*4
4-75
2*2
2*9
3*3
3*2
2*9
0*7 -1*5
1-76
1*4
2*0
2*1
1*6
2-76
1*0
1*2
1*1
0*5 -0*5
245*7
-2 .1
244.7
242*9
-2*7
3-76
0.6
1*0
0*9
0*3 -0*4
-1*5
-1*5
-0*3
4-76
0.7
0*6
0*7
0*3 -0*4
-1*2
-1*1
-0*2
-0*2
1-77
0.9
1*1
1*0
0*6
0*2
-0 .4
-0*1
0*0
1.4
2*9
2-77
242.7
1*3
1*4
1*4
1*1
0*6
0*5
0*9
1*6
2*5
3.8
242*4
244.5
4.6
247.4
4.1
3-77
1-76
4-77
258a
4-74
4-77
3-77
1*5
1*3
1.7
1*5
1*7
1*4
1*5
1.3
1*3
1*1
1*0
0*6
3-76
1*5
4-76
iV t
1*7
1*7
1-79
1.4
1*5
1.5
1.3
1*2
2-79
1*1
1*2
1.2
1.0
0*9
1.5
1*4
1.5
2*2
2*7
1*1
1*7
2*0
3a
3.5
2.9
1.6
271.5
270.7
2.5
2.3
1.5
oa
-1 .2
2a
2.1
ia
0.5
-o a
2.6
2.1
ia
1*4
3*0
5*1
274.7
2.1
1.7
1*7
2*6
3*5 " 1 .9
274.0
0*9
271.3
1*5
2*0
2*2
2.5
2.5
1*0
1*2
1*6
ia
2a
1.9
1.5
1.1
0*9
1*5
1*7
0.0
-1 .9
0*7
0*9
1*2
1*3
1.5
1.3
0.9
oa
0*2
0*5
0*4 -1 .1
-2 .6
1.3
-IM P U M . Q m T B I
274.7
-3.3"
272.4 '
M L 4-T3L 1-Ift 2-7# 3-78 4 -M _ i - i a _
M * . *-T±_ 1-75 2-75 M 2_ V'TJ--J=EL 2-74 1-7* -_±rT4 1-T7 .
270.3
PREPARED OY PEOERAL RESERVE RANK OP ST* LOUIS
SCP7EN8ER 19# 1979
17
DISPOSABLE M&SONAL INCONg IN CUM PIT POLLM S
COMPOUNDED ANNUM. RATES OFCHANfcE
TERMINAL
IN ITIA L QUARTER
ttMRTE*
3 -7 4
4-74
4 -7 4
t —73
2 -7 5
3 -7 5
4 -7 5
1-74
2 -7 4
3-76
4 -7 4
1-77
2 -7 7
3 -7 7
4 -7 7
1-7$
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
1-7 9
BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL K i m
4.3
1»016.2
1 -7 5
5*2
3 .7
2-75
12.4
16.1
30.1
3-75
10.1
11.2
15.1
~~4—75
10.0
10. 8* " I S . 3*
I »025.4
1 .0 4 5 .1
1.9
1»100.3
------------
3.7
1»125.8
1*152.2
2-74
1»170.2
3—74
9 .2
9 .4
10.4
7.1
B.O
7.2
3.1
4-74
9 .4
9 .7
10.4
7 .4
3 .4
3.2
9 .2
1»143.1
10.3
1»222.4
1-77
9 .4
9.6
10.4
7 .9
3 .7
3.5
9.2
9.3
9.3
2-77
9 .4
9 .9
10.4
3 .4
9 .3
9.2
9 .9
10.5
10.4
3-7 7
10.9
11*1
12.0
12.1
1*250.1
12.0
1*234.0
9.3
10.1
10.7
B.B
9 .7
9 .7
10.3
4 -7 7
10.0
10.2
10.9
9 .1
10.0
10.0
10.4
11.1
11.3
12.0
12.0
12.0
I —73
10.0
10.2
10.3
9 .2
10.0
10.0
10.4
11.0
11.1
11.4
11.5
11.1
10.3
2-73
10.2
10.4
10.9
9 .5
10.3
10.3
10.3
11.2
11.4
11.3
11.3
11.7
11.5
12.7
3-73
10.2
10.5
11.0
9 .4
10.4
10.4
10.9
11.2
11.4
11.7
11.7
113
11.5
12.0
4-73
10.4
10.7
11.2
9 .9
10.4
10.7
11.2
11.5
11.7
12.0
12.0
123
12.0
12*4
12.5
13.7
1-79
10.4
10.3
11.3
10.1
10.3
10.9
11.3
11.7
113
12.1
12.2
12.2
12.2
12.7
12.7
13.4
13.0
10.7
11.0
11.3
113
11.4
11.4
11.5
11.5
11.7
11.4
11.5
10.3
2-79
1-7? 2-7? ?-7? * rl>
1*323.2
1*341.2
1*395.0
1*437.3
11.4
1*474.5
1*5243
1*572.2
1*401.7
7 .7
TI..1-7*.
1-7» 2-7» . Ir7* V»7fr 1-77 2-77 1-77
IN ITIA L QUARTCR
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCONi IN 1972 DOLLARS
CONFOUNOgO ANNUAL RATCS OF CHANCE
BILLIONS O*
OOLLARS
IN ITIA L QUARTER
TERMINAL
3-74
4-7 4
1-75
2—75
3-73
4-73
1-74
2-74
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
3-78
4-78
-3 .7
1-75
-3 .1
2-75
4 .9
9.4
23.1
3-75
2 .4
4 .5
3 .2
•
-4 .9
4-73
2 .7
4 .4
63
-0 .5
4 .0
829.8
-2 .5
874.1
843.1
871.7
883.1
1-76
3.1
4 .4
6 .4
1 .4
4 .7
53
2-74
3 .0
4 .2
5.5
1.4
33
3.7
2*1
3-76
2 .9
3 .9
5 .0
1.3
3.5
3.3
2.3
2 .4
4-7 4
3.1
4 .0
5 .0
2.2
3 .7
33
3.1
3.5
887.7
893.4
903.3
4 .5
908.0
1-77
3 .0
3.3
43
2 .2
3 .4
3.3
2.8
3.1
3.3
2.1
2-77
3 .3
4 .0
43
2 .7
33
33
3.3
33
4 .2
4.1
4.1
3-77
3 .4
4 .2
4.9
6 .3
4.6
4-7 7
3 .3
4 .5
3.1
3 .5
4 .4
4 .5
4 .4
4 .8
5.2
5.4
6.5
6.7
43
1-73
3 .7
4 .3
4 .9
3 .3
4 .2
4 .2
4.1
4 .4
4 .7
4 .7
5.4
5.1
43
2.0
2-73
3 .7
4 .3
4 .3
3 .4
4 .2
4 .2
4.1
4 .3
4 .4
4.4
5.1
43
43
3 .0
4 .0
3-73
3 .7
4 .3
4 .3
3 .5
4 .2
4 .2
4.1
4 .3
4 .3
4.3
4 .9
4.7
43
3 .4
4.1
921.5
934.3
9513
954.4
944.1
974.2
4.2
—
—
991.5
4-73
3 .9
4 .4
4 .9
3 .7
4 .4
43
4 .3
4 .5
4 .7
43
5.2
3.0
4.7
4 .2
4.9
5.3
1-79
3 .3
4 .2
4 .7
3 .6
4 .2
4 .2
4.1
4 .3
4 .5
4.5
4.3
43
4.2
3 .7
4.2
4.2
4 .2
2.8
2 .3 '' 0 . 3
2-TB
2-79
1-79
835.1
4 -74
3.5
3.9
4 .3
3 .2
3.3
33
3.7
3.3
3.9
3.9
4.1
33
33
2 .9
3.0
3—74
4 -7 4
1-75
2-75
3-75
4-75
1-74
2 -7 »
3-74
4-74
1-77
2-77
3-77
4-77
1-78
_____
________________________ ___ __________ L * n m w m M ___________
3-78
2.1
4-73
994.4
-1 .4
993.0
1-1*
___
PREPARED BY FEQgRAL RESERVE BANK O f ST# IQ U IS -
SEPTEMBER 19» 1979
18
compounded annual r a te s of chance
T IM MAL
ftMHTIft H
BILLIONS Of
OOLLAftS
IM ITI AL «M K TW
4
4 -H
1-75
2-75
5-75
4-75
1-74
2-74
9-74
4-76
1-77
annual k a t is
2-77
5-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
5-78
4-78
1-79
73.5
4-7 4
-52*2
1-75
—44*6 -5 8 .2
2-75
-24*0 —22.6
59.1
6 4 .6
42*8
5-75
—5*6
8 .4
74.6 115.6
4-75
«0 .7
9.5
50.5
54.5
11.8
1-76
8*1
18.6
54.0
57.9
55.8
78.1
80.3 ' ~
91.0
64.9
91.6
2-76
7*5
15.8
42.0
41.8
25.7
50.1
2.7
5-76
7 .1
14.5
55.2
55.7
19.0
21.5
4 .2
5.8
4-76
6*4
12.6
29.7
27.7
15.2
16.1
5.2
5.5
92.9
1.5
93.2
99.2
1-77
8*4
14.5
29.6
27.8
17a
18.4
9 .0
11.2
14.0
2-77
9*4
14.8
28.4
26.7
17.6
18.6
11.0
15.2
15.8
25.0
19.4
5-77
9 .8
14.7
26.9
25.2
17.2
18.0
11.5
15.4
15.4
20.5
16.8
14.2
4-77
9 .2
15.7
24.5
22.8
15.4
15.9
10.2
11.5
12.7
15.8
11.9
8.5
2*4
28.1
107.2
107.9
106.7
1-78
8.2
12.2
21.8
20.0
15.1
IS .5
8.5
9.1
9 .7
11.4
7.6
5.9
-0 .9
-4 .4
2-78
11.6
15.7
25.1
25.7
1*.7
18.4
14.1
15.6
17.1
19.9
18.5
18.0
194
28.7
75.2
5-78
11.4
15.1
25.8
22.4
16.8
17.5
15.4
14.7
15.8
18.0
16.4
15.8
16.2
21.2
56.4
122.4
124.4
7 .4
4-78
12.2
15.8
24.0
22.7
17.6
18.1
14.4
15.8
17.0
19.1
17.9
17.6
184
22.4
55.2 1
m
27.1
1-79
15.5
16.8
24.5
25.4
18.4
19.2
16.0
17.5
18.5
20.4
19.6
19.7
20.6
24.6
55.1
21.9
29.9
52.7
2-79
12.1
15.5
22.4
16.5
15.9
16.1
18.6
25.8
15.8
16.0
10.9
-7 . 4
5-74
4 -7 4
1-75
1-77
2-77
5-77
4-77
1-78
2-78
5*78
4-78
1-79
_____
2-75
« ..........................
5-75
...
.
4-75
. -
1-76
2-74
5-76
4-76
_______ » f tT IA L W M U ft
152.3
142.0
.................................... -, ...
159.3
......
>*»>>»■) »V H W M t > l « W i M i t M «»■ u « H
s v r m H i*, » N
SOURCES OP DATA
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
Source:
1929-72:
1973!
1974!
1975:
1976-78:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230
The National Income and Product Accounts of the
United States, 1929-74, A Survey of Current Business
Supplement.
Survey of Current Business, July 1976.
Survey of Current Business, July 1977.
Survey of Current Business, July 1978.
Survey of Current Business, July 1979.
The Survey is available from most district offices
of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
20402.
19
.
INVENTORIES COMPARED W ITH MONTHLY S A L E S *
« R A T I O S BASED ON SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO O A T A .
SOURCE:
U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE
SHADED AREAS R EP R ES E NT P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S .
L A T E S T D ATA P L O T T E D t
JULY P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
20
@FedFRASER