Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1986
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National E c o n o m i c Trends N o v e m b e r 1986 O c t o b e r 1 9 8 6 m a r k e d the 47th m o n t h dissatisfied w i t h t he c o u r s e it i s u s e f u l t o p l a c e it i n p e r s p e c t i v e a n d b eginning T h e G N P T h e early u n e m p l o y m e n t T h e table s u m m a r i z e s the e c o n o m i c rate a n d payroll e m p l o y m e n t o f real o u t p u t b e c a u s e o f slower g r o w t h trast to that e x p a n s i o n , s h o w 1984. T o m a n y observers are a s s e s s t h e e c o n o m y ’s p e r f o r m a n c e , the previous period of long T h e over G N P these t w o periods e c o n o m i c of e c o n o m i c d e f l a t o r is a b r o a d m e a s u r e indicate t h e status o f th e l a b o r m a r k e t s , gai n s e q u a l to a b o u t expansion expansion. Real o f price perfor m a n c e . while the A a a b y a 8 0 p e r c e n t o f t h o s e in the E m p l o y m e n t b o n d rate reflects 1970s. Price performance, in the labor force, the u n e m p l o y m e n t the corporate slight s l o w i n g A a a b o n d m a d e rate h a s d e c l i n e d in the in e m p l o y m e n t 1 9 80s rate h a s d r o p p e d in this e x p a n s i o n in r e d u c i n g g r o w t h a n d a h o w e v e r , i n c r e a s e s h a v e b e e n o n l y slightly less t h a n in t he 1 9 7 0 s , b y a greater a m o u n t . rat e s t a n d s a p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t h i g h e r c u r r e n t l y t h a n at this s t a g e in t h e Considerable progress has b e e n a c c o m p a n i e d p e r f o r m a n c e of output. substantially better in t h e c u r r e n t e x p a n s i o n . gains, the u n e m p l o y m e n t level. the recent record wit h of conditions. m e a s u r e s has b e e n c o m p a r e m a n u f a c t u r i n g production are m e a s u r e s m a r k e t D e s p i t e t h e e x p a n s i o n ’s l o n g e v i t y , especially since the m i d d l e 1975. a c c o m p a n y i n g a n d credit a n d in of the current expansion. of the e c o n o m y , inflation a n d greater— but not a n d is 2 0 basis points b e l o w interest rates. substantial— Despite these 1 9 70s expansion. S u c h slowing In c o n its 1 9 7 8 progress has b e e n in o u t p u t growth. Measures of Economic Performance 1980s expansion 1970s Percent c hange Real G N P (1982 Manufacturing dollars) expansion Percent ID/ 1 9 8 6 IV/1982 3,687.3 3,159.3 29.3 129.4 100.1 13.0 100.3 88.7 14.9 88.2 76.8 13.1 115.0 101.7 28.9 74.4 57.7 16 . 7 % c h a n g e 2 0 . 4 % IY/1978 1/1975 3,181.6 2,642.7 110.7 81.9 production ( 1 9 7 7 = 1 0 0 ) 35.2 Payroll e m p l o y m e n t (millions o f persons) G N P deflator ( 1 9 8 2 = U n e m p l o y m e n t Corporate A a a 100) rate — 6 . 9 % 1 0 . 6 % — 5 . 9 % 8 . 3 % b o n d — 8.83 11.88 — 9.03 8.71 rate v ie w s — t h e F E D E R A L R E S E R V E R A N K of ST. I / H T S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e s y s t e m . Keith M . Carlson __________ T B T â L U f l U i M H n O f f lE M Ig . C O fW K W E » A W W L RATES OF C lttN K TERNI MAL IN IT IA L WMTN THOUSANDS MttttlH_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________ OF PERSONS 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 3-85 4-85 5-85 6—85 7-65 8—€5 9-85 10—85 i 1—85 12-85 *-85 -0 .9 106*872 106*939 5-85 -0.1 0 .8 6-85 -1.3 - 1 .5 -3 .7 T-85 -0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .4 3 .1 8-85 0*6 1 .0 1 .0 3 .5 3 .9 9-85 1.1 1.5 1.6 3.5 3 .7 3*5 10-85 1*4 1 .8 2 .0 3 .4 3 .6 3.4 3 .3 2 .9 2 .5 11-85 1.4 106*601 1 .8 1 .9 3.1 3.1 lO J tZ lt ) 107**1# Id ? * IT 3 107*964 1*8 104 * 206 12-85 1.6 1*9 2 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2. • 2 .6 2 .2 2 .7 1-86 2.3 2 .6 2.8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .0 4.1 4 .3 5 .6 8*6 2-86 1*6 1 .9 2 .0 2 .8 2 .1 2 .5 2.3 2.1 2 .2 2 .0 -4*3 3-86 1.7 2 .0 2.1 2 .7 2 .1 2 .5 2.4 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 - 0 .9 2 .5 %-86 1.7 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2.1 1 .9 -8 .2 1 .8 1.2 1*7 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2.4 2 .2 2.1 2.1 2 .0 0 .4 2 .0 1.8 5-86 108*955 108*561 I Ô8*7êé IW * I7 T ' 2 .4 109*110 109*673 6-86 2*0 2 .2 2.4 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1 .6 3.1 3.3 4*4 6 .4 7-86 2.0 2 .2 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2.ir 2 .7 1 .7 2 .9 3.0 3 .7 4.3 8-86 2.1 2 .3 2.4 2 .9 2 .8 2 .1 2.7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1*9 3 .0 3 .0 3 .5 3 .9 109 *séz liö * l* 5 ¿ .7 3 .8 —¿ . 8 109*891 9-86 1.8 2*0 2.1 2.5 2.4 2 .3 2.2 2.1 2 .1 2.1 1.3 2.1 2 .0 2 .2 2 .2 0. 8 0 .0 10-86 1.9 2*1 2 .2 2.5 2 .5 2*4 2.3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 1 .6 2 .3 2.3 2 .5 2.5 1.6 l . 'S 6.5 3 .9 3-85 4-85 5-65 6-85 7-85 8—85 9-85 10-85 11-85 lL - « 5 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 110*240 _____________________________________________________________________________I K IT IA L MONTH ♦SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHAAT OPPOSITE PA tE PREPARED BY FÉDÉRAL ASSERVE BAUK OF ST* LOOTS NOVENBCIt T» i m ___________P tY lO L L EMPLOYMENT_________ COMPOUNDED AMHOAL RATES OF CHAMCE TEKNINAL IN IT IA L MONTH TWOUSANOS HQWIH___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________OF PERSONS 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 1-86 2-86 3-86 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 " 4-85 2 .9 5-85 2 .9 2 .9 6-85 2.4 2.1 1.3 7-85 2.5 2 .4 2.1 8-85 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .8 2 .7 9-85 2.6 2 .5 2.5 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 10-85 2.8 2 .7 2 .7 3.1 3.1 3.3 11-85 2.8 2 .8 2 .7 3 .0 3.1 3 .2 3 .3 2 .9 12-85 2.8 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 3.1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .0 3*0 3-4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .9 L-86 3.0 97*338 3 .0 3 .0 9T*4À2 97*672 2 .9 3 .3 97 * B9 o W * I2 S #§,428 3 .7 9ft*666 98*910 $9*296 4*8 2-86 2.9 2 .9 i. 9 3.1 3.1 3 .2 3 .2 3.1 3*1 3 .2 1*6 3-86 2.7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1*1 0 .7 "54*429 4-86 2.8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2.7 2 .7 2 .0 2 .2 3*7 5-86 2.7 2 .7 2.7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2*6 2*5 1*9 2*0 2 .6 1 .6 6-86 2.4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2*1 1*9 1*3 1 .3 1*5 •*4 7-86 ¿ .5 2 .* M 2 .3 2 .2 2*1 t .6 1 .6 1 .9 i.% i. 1 "1 *2 " 8-86 2.5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2*1 1*7 1 .7 1 .9 1 .5 1*5 ~ 2 *f 2 .* 9-86 2.4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .2 2 .2 2*1 1*7 1*8 1 .9 1 .6 1*6 2 .4 2.1 2 .0 10-86 2.5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .8 ________________ i n « - 2 .5 4 ~ 8 ? "97*15* * .'* 2 .5 S r* ? 2 .5 2 .5 2.5 f- ft ? 2 .5 T - » 2 .4 2 .3 I IM ? 2*2 2*0 l i r t t ____ l - » 6 2 .9 2 -« 6 2 .2 3 -8 6 ■ # # *m " *#♦#!§ W *7 *i 1 .9 4 -8 6 99*843 -*•9 2*0 V -» » 6 -» 6 ioo*ki)S> 7 - 8 6 ~ 1 *0 *2 « 8 -8 6 iò O *U è > 3*i to ò * ?U ^ » -» 6 ____________________________________________________________________________________ U U i a L - B H Ö _________________ _____________________________________________________ t- PRELIMIMARY_____________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEP6RAL R E 1ERYE BANK OF ST* LO UIS N O V E N K I 7« i m 2 EMPLOYMENT R A T I O SCALE MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS R A T I O SCALE MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEtf PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3%. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt OCTOBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASON ALLY ADJUSTED PERCENT PERCENT 2.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7 .0 6.0 5.0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 3 L O U IS 4. 0 CONSUMER PR IC E INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY AOJVSTEO COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 1467» 10TÓ IN IT IA L MONTH 3 -8 5 4 -8 5 5 -8 5 6 -8 5 7 -8 5 8 -8 5 9 -6 5 1 0 -8 5 1 1 -8 5 1 2 -8 5 1 -8 6 3-86 2 -8 6 4 -8 6 6-86 5 -8 6 1-86 é-84 9 -8 6 ” 3W 73 4.2 321.0 3*4 2 .7 6— 85 -J7T 2.8 17(5” 7 -8 5 3 .0 2.6 2.6 2 .3 8 -8 5 3 .0 2.6 2*6 2 .4 2.6 321*8 3 2 2 .4 37X^1 9 -8 5 2.8 2.6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 1 0 -8 5 3 . 1 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 3 .1 3 .4 4 .5 1 1 -8 5 3 .5 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 4 .1 4 .5 5 .7 1 2 -8 5 3 .7 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 4 .1 4 .5 5 .Ì " 1- b ò 3 .7 3 .6 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .4 5 .0 5 .1 4 .3 2-86 2 .9 2.8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 3 .0 2.6 1 .2 32 J . 7 3 2 4 .9 3 2 6 .7 6 .9 3 2 7 .9 4 .5 3 -8 6 2.2 2.0 2.0 1 .9 1.8 1 .7 1.6 - 0 . 4 L .8 1.6 1 .5 1 .3 1 .2 l . l 0 .9 - 5 -8 6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1 .4 1 .3 1.2 1.1 - 0 . 4 6-86 2.1 1 .9 1 .9 1.8 1 .7 1.6 1.6 1 .2 0 .4 - 7 -8 6 2.0 1.8 1.8 1 .7 1 . 6- 1 .5 1 .4 1.1 0 .4 - 8-86 2.0 1.8 1.8 1 .7 1 .7 1. 6 1 .5 1. 2 9 -8 6 2 .1 2.0 1 .9 1 .9 1.8 1. 8 1 .7 1 .5 10-86 2.1 2.0 1 .9 1 .9 1. 8 1.8 1 .7 8 -8 5 7 -1 5 _ 2. - £ S _ 1 0 -8 5 • - 0 . 4 4 -8 6 5 * 9 5 .. fc-05 3 2 9 .0 4 .1 6 3 2 T .T 3 2 6 .3 - 1 . 9 - 4 . 8 - 5 . 0 - 2 . 3 - 4 . 3 -4 . 1 - 1 . 4 -2 . 7 - 2 .1 0.2 - l . l - 0 .2 - - 0.6 0 .1 -0 . 4 1 .0 0 .6 0 .1 0.8 1.8 2 .9 3 .1 2.2 3 .2 4 .1 1.0 0 .7 0 .3 1 .0 1. 8 2 .7 2 .8 2.1 2 .7 3 .0 2-8 6 3— 86 4 -8 6 5 -8 6 6-86 7 -8 6 1.0 1 1 -8 5 L2 _ -8 5 _ 0 .8 1- S 6 " ^ 2 5 .4 - 3 . 3 0 .6 2.2 0.2 1 .5 3 .9 5 .7 0. 1 1 .2 2 .7 3 .0 0 .4 0 .3 1 .4 2.6 2 .7 1 .3 - 3 2 6 .0 3 2 7 .5 3 2 7 .4 2.2 3 2 8 .2 3 2 4 .3 3 2 9 .8 1 .8 8-86 9 -8 6 IN IT IA L MONTH PRODUCER M I C E IN D E X . F IM IS tfffi M O D S - SEASONALLY PREPAREO BY NOVEMBER 25* FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 1986 ADJUS1ED* COftPOUNCED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN IT IA L TER M IN A L 1947 » 100 MONTH MONTH 3 -3 5 4 -8 5 6 .3 5 -8 5 4*6 2 .9 6 -8 5 2.2 0.2 7 -8 5 2 .4 8 -8 5 1. 2 - 0.1 - 1 . 4 9 -8 5 - 5 -8 5 6— «5 7 -8 5 8— *5 9 -8 5 1 0 -0 5 1 1 -8 5 12—85 1 -8 6 2—04 3 -8 6 4 -8 4 5—86 6 -8 4 7 -8 4 8 -8 6 * -# 4 ¿93.5 4 -8 5 ¿*4.2 2 9 3 .4 -2 .4 l.l 0.2 2 .9 0 .1 -1 .1 -0 .4 -3 .6 -2 .4 -2 .4 -5 .0 -6 .4 2 9 4 .3 2 9 3 .4 ~291.l ~794T4 1 0 -8 5 1 .4 0.6 0.2 o .a 0 .1 2 .1 1 1 .2 1 1 -8 5 2 .3 1 .7 1 .5 2 .3 2 .2 4 .2 9 .8 8 .5 1 2 -8 5 2 .9 2 .5 2 .4 3 .2 3 .3 5 .1 9 .2 8 .2 296. 4 " " 2 9 r .3 8 .8 1-86 1 .7 1 .5 1 .2 2 .2 4 .5 2 .3 2-86 —0 .3 - 0 . 9 - 1 . 3 -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .4 —0.4 -3 .1 —6 . 7 - 1 3 . 3 - 1 7 . 8 291.3 3 -8 6 -1 .2 -1 .9 -2 .3 -2 .3 -> .9 —2 .8 -2 .> -4 .7 - 1 .8 - 1 2 . 5 - 1 4 . 4 - 1 0 . 9 2 8 8 .5 4-86 -1 .6 -2 .2 - ¿ . 7 -¿ .7 -3 .3 -3 .3 -2 .8 -5 .0 -7 .4 -8 .5 -4 .1 5 -8 6 - 1. 6 - 1 . 9 - 1 . 9 -2 .4 -2 .2 - 1 . 7 -3 .4 -5 .3 -7 .7 -7 .5 -3 .8 0 .0 6 .5 6-86 -0 .9 - 1 . 7 —1 .4 -2 .0 -1.9 -1.4 - 2. * —4 . 4 —4 . 3 —5 .8 —2 .6 0 .4 3 .V -3.3 1.0 1.2 7 -8 6 - 8-86 -0 .9 9 -8 6 - 10-86 0.6 1 .2 - - 1 . 4 1 .0 -0 .8 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .7 - 2.0 - 2.0 ->.4 - 2 . 3 - i . é - 3 . 2 -4 .6 - 6 . 2 —5 . * 1.6 - 1 .6 - i . % - 1. « - i . a - 2 . 5 - 3 . 7 - S Æ " -4.5 - ¿ . 1 - 1.2 -1.5 - 1 . 3 - 0 . 9 - 1 . 9 -2.9 - 4 . 0 - 3 . 4 - 1.2 0.6 1 .9 0.8 0 .7 4 .3 T.7 - 0 . 9 - 0. # - l.l - 0 . 9 -0 .5 -1 .4 -2 .2 - 3 .2 - 2 .6 - 0 .5 1 .1 ¿Vi 1.5” 1.6 4.2 4.5 4.2 5 -8 5 6—85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 U - 8 5 12-95 1-84 2 -0 4 3 -8 4 4-86 0-86 9-84 - 1.0 . —0 3 -8 5 4 -8 5 FOUR ¿ s é .s 1 .3 - .4 7 -1 . 3 M ONTHS A60 R E V IS E S TO R EFLEC T -Ï.2 - Ô .2 0 .4 .0 214.3 - I -0 .4 FOR ¿91 -1 .7 I N I T I A L ♦DATA 2 9 6 .1 -8 .5 - ¿ . 5 - 6 .1 1.3 ^3.4“-1.2 5-86 6 -8 4 287*3 280.2 3VT 7 -8 4 2 8 9 .3 T W .3 HO NTH LATE REPORTING r* £ P A * tP ©V f J P « A L - « * * * E NOVEMBER 14* 1586 4 OAJ* O f S T . LOUIS RATI O SCALE 1967- 100 PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T I O SC A LE 1967- 100 CONSUMER PRICE INOEX BEGINNING JANUARY 197« 18 FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (C P l- U ). CPI-U DATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP C08T8. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER 1008 INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE 8ANK OF ST. LOUIS RATIO scale 1967-100 PRODUCER PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ratio scale 1967-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 PRODUCER PM C E IND EX, F I HI SHED CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY A PJU 3TEP» COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 1967 * 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MDNTM 3-05 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 1-86 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 2-86 3-06 4-06 5-06 6-06 7-06 0-06 9-06 270.0 4-85 —6.8 5-85 -8.1 - 9 .3 6-85 - 5 .7 - 5 .2 - 0 .9 11.8 260.6 260.4 7-85 - 1 .6 0.1 5 .2 8-85 -3 .0 - 2 .0 0 .6 1.3 9-85 -4.4 -3 .9 - 2 .4 -2 .9 10-85 - 1 .0 0 .0 2 .0 2 .7 270.9 269.0 -6 .1 266.4 - 9 .6 -1 1 .0 - 0 .1 4.1 2 1 .7 270.0 275.7 11-85 0 .7 1.8 3.8 4 .6 3.1 7.2 17.6 13.6 12-85 2 .0 3 .2 5.1 6.1 5 .0 8 .6 16.0 13.3 1-86 1.1 2 .0 3.5 4 .2 3 .0 5.3 9 .9 6 .2 —6 .7 ¿>4.9 3.5 - 0 .6 -4 .9 -12 .7 -1 6 .3 270.3 3.3 - 0 .1 - 3 .3 -6 .1 276.5 13.0 2 .7 2-86 -0 .8 - 0 .2 0.6 1.1 - 0 .4 1.0 3-86 - 0 .6 0 .0 0 .9 1.1 —0 . 1 1.1 4-86 -0.4 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 1.2 3 .0 0 .2 - 2 .3 - 5 .7 - 5 .4 1.8 1.0 1.7 2.8 4 .7 2 .5 0 .7 - 1 .6 - 0 .2 6 .7 9 .2 17.2 l.i 2.4 4.1 r .r 0 .6 - 1 .4 —0 .3 4 .8 "3 :# ' 0 .0 - 0 .4 - 6 .6 270.Y 1.8 271.1 274.7 5—86 0 .7 1.3 2 .3 2 .6 6—86 0 .6 1 .2 2.1 2 .3 7-86 2.1 2 .7 3.6 3 .9 3 .3 4.4 6.1 4 .5 3 .4 2.1 3 .7 0 .7 10.5 13.6 11.9 25.0 8-86 2.9 3 .5 4.4 4 .8 4 .3 5.4 7.1 5 .7 4 .9 3 .9 5 .5 10.1 11.6 14.5 13. é 21.5 17.1 9 .4 11.0 4.4 i5.o 7.1 - 2 .1 9-86 2 14.6 279.9 203.6 203.1 2.6 3 .2 4 .0 4 .4 3 .8 4 .8 6 .3 5 .0 4 .1 3 .2 4 .5 8 .3 T7Ì 376 475 47a *71 571 6 .t 575 47« 470 571 177 97T 11.1 97# 12.6 173 475 11.6 3-85 4-85 5—85 6-85^ 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-05 11-85 12-83 1-66 2-86 3-86 4-86 »-86 6-06 7-86 »-86 9-86 Z W .7 _____________________________________________________IN IT IA L MONTH ♦OATA~FUR FOUR MONTHS AfcO R EV ISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LO UIS NOVI PRODUCER P K IC E IN D EX, FIN IS H ED CQQOSt EXCLUDING FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* CONPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE TERMINAL IN IT IA L MONTH 1967 « 100 ttQMTH_________________________________________________________________________ ________ __________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ 3-85 4-85 11.1 4-85 5-85 6-05 7-05 0-85 9-05 10-05 11-05 12-05 1-86 2-06 3-06 4-06 5-06 6-06 7-06 0-06 9-06 290.9 300.6 5-85 9 .0 7 .0 6-85 4.7 1.6 -3 .5 7-85 3.6 1 .2 -1 .6 0.4 299.7 299.0 8-85 2.4 0 .4 - l.Y - 0 .8 — .0 9-85 1.2 -0 .7 -2 .6 - 2 .2 — .5 -5 .1 10-85 2 .2 0 .8 -0 .4 0 .4 .4 1.6 11-85 2 .7 1.6 0 .7 1.6 .9 3.2 7. t 6 .6 12-85 3.2 2 .2 1.5 2 .4 .0 4.1 7 .3 6 .6 6 .6 1-86 1.9 0 .9 0.1 0.7 .7 1.3 2.9 1.1 - 1 .6 2-86 -0.1 -1.1 -2 .0 -1 .0 — .1 - 2 .1 - 1 .5 3-86 -1 .4 - 2 .4 -3 .3 - 3 .3 — •.0 - 4 .0 -3 .9 4-86 - 2 .0 - 3 .0 -3 .8 - 3 .9 — .3 - 4 .6 -4 .6 - 6 .6 -9.1 -12.6 — .6 5-86 -1 .6 - 2 .5 -3 .3 - 3 .3 6—86 -1 .4 -2.2" - 2 .4 -Z.# 7-86 - 2 .3 -3 .1 -3 .0 - 3 .9 299.3 ¿4 6 .0 300.1 0 .0 301.7 303.3 - 9 .1 500.9 - 3 .9 - 7 .7 -1 3 .4 -1 7 .5 294.1 - 6 .2 - 9 .2 -1 3 .9 -16.1 -1 4 .7 -1 3 .7 - 1 1 .7 292.2 290.0 - 0 .7 ■ 290.7 -3 .0 - 3 .7 - 5 .3 - 7 .2 - 9 .7 - 9 .0 - 7 .1 - 3 .0 2 .9 .1 -i.2 -3 .0 —4 .4 -3.# —7 .0 —7 .6 - 4 .9 -1.4 2.3 -4 .4 - 4 .3 - 5 .7 -7.1 - • .9 - 0 .9 - 7 .1 - 5 .0 - 3 .0 - 7 .6 -1 5 .3 — .2 2. 1 m .j " —0.0 8-66 - 2 .2 -3 .0 - 3 .6 - 3 .6 .9 -4 .1 - 4 .0 - 5 .2 —6 .4 - 0 .0 - 7 .0 -6 .1 - 4 .2 -5.1 -3.r “ 8 ♦3 9-86 - 1 .7 -2 .4 - 3 .0 - ¿ .9 .2 - 3 .2 - 3 .1 —4 .1 -5 .1 - 6 .3 - 6 .0 - 4 .2 -7.i -1.0 - 1 .4 -5.5 5.4 7.A 10-86 -1 .5 -2 .2 - 2 .7 -2 .6 .• -2 .9 - 2 .t - 3 .6 - 4 .5 - 5 .6 - 5 .2 - 3 .* - 1 .0 —0 .6 -1.2 - 2 .0 2.0 4 .7 1.7 3-85 t-85 5-85 6-05 7- 05 0-05 9-05 10-05 11-05 12—05 1-06 7-06 3- 06 4-06 5-06 6-06 7-06 8-86 9-06 ♦DATA FOR FOUR NONTHS ACO R E V ÌÌE D Y o 297.2 287.0 200.0 ¿ o v .2 IN IT IA L MONTH RÉÉLÉCT LATE REPORTING PREPAIIEO BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LO UIS W rV fW g * u , m ------------------------------- 6 I N D U S T R I A L RATIO P R O D U C T I O N SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 197 7-100 1978 1979 1980 PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED» DATA ANNUAL RATES OCTOBER 1981 OF CHANGE 1982 FOR PERIODS SCALE 197 7-100 1983 1984 1985 1986 IN DICA TED. PR ELIM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN K OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION _________________________________________________________________ CQW*0UN0€0 ANNUAL M T C S Of CHANCE__________________________________________________________________ TERMINAL__________________________ ________________________________________IN IT IA L M O N T H ___________________________________________________________ 1977 « 100 MONTH 3-55 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-05 9-85 10-85 11-05 12-05 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 -1*0 5-85 1*0 6-85 0*6 1.5 0 .0 1 0» 123.3 4-85 0*0 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 8-85 2 .0 2 .7 2 .6 3 .9 10.2 123.6 3 .0 123.6 123.4 124.4 9-85 1.5 2 .0 1.7 2 .3 4 .5 0 10-85 0 .3 0 .5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .6 _3 8 - 6 .6 11-85 1.7 2.1 2 .0 2 .3 3 .4 1 3 2.4 12.3 12-85 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 3 .3 4 .3 2 9 4 .2 10.1 8 .0 1-86 2 .7 3.1 3 .2 3*6 4 .6 3 5 4 .7 8 .7 6 .9 5 .9 2-86 1.7 1.9 1.8 2 .1 2 .7 1 5 1.9 4 .2 1.6 - 1 .4 0 .2 «1 1 -1 .1 0 .0 - 2 .9 3-86 0 .2 0 .3 0 .0 0 .0 124.3 123.6 124.8 125.6 126.2 - 8 .2 125.3 —6 .2 - 1 1 .7 -15 .1 123.6 4-86 1.0 1.1 1 .0 1.1 1.4 0 4 0 .6 1 .8 - 0 .2 - 2 .1 - 4 .7 - 2 .8 11.2 5-86 0 .6 0 .7 0 .5 0 .5 0 .8 -0 2 - 0 .1 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 2 .7 - 4 .7 - 3 .5 2 .9 —4 .7 6-86 0 .5 0 .6 0.4 0 .5 0 .7 -0 2 -0 .1 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 2 .2 - 3 .8 - 2 .6 2 .0 - 2 .4 0 .0 7-86 0 .9 1.0 0 .9 1.0 1.2 0 4 0 .6 1.4 0.1 - 1 .0 - 2 .0 - 0 .8 3 .2 0 .6 3 .4 7 .0 8-86 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1 .3 0 6 0 .7 1.5 0 .3 - 0 .6 -1 .5 - 0 .3 2 .9 1.0 2 .9 4 .4 0 .7 1.4 0 .4 - 0 .4 - 1 .2 -0 .1 2 .6 1.0 0 .7 1.3 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 1 .1 - 0 .1 2 .2 0 .8 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 9-86 1.0 1.1 1.0 1 .0 1.2 0< 6 10-86 0 .9 1.0 0 .9 1.0 1.2 0 6 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 in U ia I HoM 124.7 124.2 124.2 124.9 1.9 125.1 2 .4 3.3 1.4 1.0 125.2P 1.9 2 .4 1.0 0 .5 0 .0 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 4-*6 125.2P h P- PRELIM INARY ~ HkEftAftED ftŸ FÉDÉRAL ft ESC ftVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS ____________________________________ __ __________________________________________________________________________ NOVEMBER 14* 1986_____________________________________ 7 P E R S O N A L RATIO SCALE m on thly TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS I N C O M E to ta ls at SEASONALLY annual RATIO rates SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS ADJUSTED 2. 2.0 1 . I .8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE» PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED. DATA ANNUAL RATES OCTOBER OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS U .S . 1985 DEPARTMENT 1986 OF CO MMERC E IN D IC A TE D . PR ELIM IN AR Y PREPARED _________________________________________________________________________________ ___ r e i S Q H A L BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA N K OF ST. LO U IS IHLQhfc__________________________________________________________________________________ COftPOUMOCD ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE ______________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ P IL L IO N S OF T E R M I N A L I N I T I A L M O N T H D O L L A R S MONTH ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ANNUAL RATES 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12—85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-B6 7-86 8—#6 9—06 4-85 11.1 3*302.7 3*288.5 5—85 2 .7 - 5 .0 6-85 3.9 0 .4 6.2 7-85 3.9 1.5 5 .0 3*304.9 3 .9 3*315.4 3*320.5 8-85 3 .5 1.6 3.9 2 .9 1.9 9-85 3 .7 2 .3 4.2 3 .6 3 .4 5 .0 10-05 4 .5 3 .4 5.2 4 .9 5 .3 7 .0 9.1 11-85 4 .5 3 .6 5.2 5 .0 5.2 6 .4 7.1 5.1 12-05 5.9 5 .3 6.8 7 .0 7 .6 9.1 10.5 11.2 17.5 1-06 5 .3 4 .7 5.9 5 .9 6 .2 7.1 7 .7 7.2 8 .3 - 0 .2 5 .4 4 .8 6 .0 6 .0 6 .3 7 .0 7.5 7 .0 7.7 3.1 2-06 3*333.9 3*372.3 3*418.0 3*417.4 3 ,* 5 5 .5 6 .5 3*445.1 3-06 5 .2 4 .7 5.7 5.7 5 .9 6 .5 6 .8 6 .3 6 .6 3 .2 5 .0 3 .5 4-86 6 .0 5 .6 6 .6 6 .6 7 .0 7.6 8 .0 7 .8 8 .3 6 .2 8 .4 9 .3 15.4 5-06 5 .4 5 .0 5 .9 5 .8 6 .0 6 .5 6 .7 6 .4 6 .6 4 .5 5 .7 5 .5 6 .5 - 1 .9 0 .2 5 .4 5 .5 5 .3 5 5 .4 5.1 5 .1 5.1 5 .1 4 .6 5.4 7-86 5 .0 4 .6 8-86 4 .8 4 .5 6—06 5 .9 6 .0 5 .4 5.5 5 .6 ~ V 5.1 3*486.8 3*481.3 **4 8 1 .4 5 .6 3 .8 4 .6 4 .1 4 .3 - 0 .8 5 .Ì 3 .8 4 .5 4. Ì 4 .2 0 .7 ¿.0 3 .9 5.1 3 .6 4 .2 3 .8 3 .9 1.2 2 .2 3 .2 2 .6 4 .2 3 .8 3 .9 1.7 2 .6 3.5 3 .Ì 3.9 3*492.9 3*500.5 3*511.6 9-86 4 .8 4 .4 5 .0 5 .0 5.1 5 .3 5 .3 5 .0 5 .0 3 .7 10-06 4 .8 4 .4 5 .0 4 .9 5 .0 5 .2 5 .3 4 .9 4 .9 3 .7 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 2 .2 3 .0 3.7 3 .6 4 .1 4 .4 3-85 4-85 5—85 6-85 7-85 A—85 9-85 10-05 11-85 12-85 1—86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 IN IT IA L MONTH P- P K E U m N A f t T ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS NOVEMBER 20» 1986 8 RETAIL R A T IO SALES S C A LE BILLIONS OF R A T IO DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED S C A LE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPT EM BER, U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE INDICATED. OCTOBER ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS R E T A I L SALES COMPOUNDED A NN U A L R ATES I NITIAL TERMINAL MONTH OF CHANCE MIL LI ON S MONTH 3-85 4 -85 5-85 6 -85 T— 85 8-85 9 -8 5 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 7 -8 6 3 -8 « 27*1 5-05 11.2 - 2. 7 6-05 5.4 -4.1 5-86 6 -8 6 7-86 8-86 9 -8 6 1 13*992 1 13*468 - 5. 4 114*620 7-85 7.2 1.3 3.4 12.9 8-85 9.6 5.6 8.5 16.2 19.7 9 -85 11.9 9.1 12.3 19.0 22.1 116*349 118*499 2 4.6 114*930 10-85 *•5 1.2 2.0 3.9 1.1 -7.1 -30.7 11-85 4.6 1.8 2.5 4 .2 2.1 -3.1 -14.6 5.4 12-85 5.8 3.4 4.4 6.1 4 .8 1.3 -5.4 10.5 115*433 15.9 IÌ6*661 117*349 1-86 5.8 3.6 4.4 5.9 4 .8 2.1 - 2. 9 8.7 10.4 2-86 5.1 3.1 3.8 5.0 3.9 1.5 - 2.6 6 .0 6.3 1.8 -1. 5 3-86 4.2 2.3 2.8 3.8 2.7 0.5 - 3. 0 3.7 3.3 -0.6 -3.4 -5.2 3.0 3.6 2.2 1.3 2.7 11.1 h »7 4-86 114*254 4 -8 5 4 -8 6 OF DOLLARS 4.5 3 .6 1.8 - 1.1 4.9 4.8 5.1 i iì**óó 116*684 117 * t 15 118*675 5-86 5.1 3.6 4.1 5.0 4 .3 2.7 0.2 5.7 5.7 3.8 3.4 5.1 10.7 10.2 6-86 *.9 3.5 4.0 4.8 4.1 2.7 0.5 5.3 5.3 3.6 3.3 4.6 8.0 6.5 2.9 7-86 5.2 3.9 4.4 5.1 4.5 3.2 1.3 5.7 5.7 4.4 4.2 5.4 8.2 7 .3 5.8 8.9 8-86 5.9 4.7 5.3 6.1 5.5 4.4 2.8 6.9 7.1 6.0 6.2 7.5 10.2 10.0 10.0 13.6 18.6 9-86 9.3 8.4 9.1 10.1 9.9 9.2 8.0 12.5 13.2 12.9 13.9 16.3 20. 3 22. 3 25.5 34.1 4 8. 8 86.5 10-86 5.3 4.2 4.7 5.3 4.8 3.8 2.4 5.8 5.8 4 .9 4 .8 5.7 7.3 6 .7 6.0 6.8 6.1 0 .3 - 46 .6 3— 85 4-8 5 5-85 6-85 7-85 9-85 9-8 5 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-8 6 3-86 4 -8 6 5-86 6 -8 6 7 -8 6 8-86 9-86 I NI TI AL P- PRELIMINARY E- ESTI M AT E O 1 18 *960 119*804 1 2 1 »523 12è*Ò0^P m*5Ò7E MONTH 9 PREPARED BY NOVEMBER 14» F EO ER AL 1986 RE SERVE BANK OF ST. LOU IS HO U R L Y C O M P E N S A ! IOK* B U S I N E S S SECTOR C Q M f Q U N Q E Q A H H U á l R A T E S O f C H A M f i E -----T E R M I N A ! _________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A & U E 1 _________________________ _____________________________________________ L ? 7 7 - l t t 9 QUARTER ____________4 - a i i- 8 2 2-82 ^-8? 4 - 8 2 ___ l-fl3___2 = 4 3 ___3 - 8 3 4 - 8 3 ___ Irflá___2 = 1 A ___________ 4 - 8 4 — l = A 5 — ¿ - f l l - 3 - 9 5 4-ft5___ 1 - 8 6 2 - 8 6 _______________ 1-S 2____ ____________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 153*8 2 -8 2 8 .6 6 .8 "*-82 8 .2 7 .1 7 .5 4 ~ «2 7 .2 6 .2 5 .9 4 .4 5 .3 4 .3 5 .7 1— 8 3 1 5 6 .6 1 5 8 .3 1 5 9 .9 4 .1 160*9 2 -8 3 5*9 5 .0 4 .6 3 .7 3 .3 2 .5 3 -8 3 5 .3 4 .4 4 .0 3 .1 2 .7 2 .0 1 .5 4 -8 3 5 .3 4 . 6 4 .2 3 .6 3 .3 3 .1 3 .4 161*5 5 .3 16 3 .6 1 6 5 .9 1 -8 4 5 .3 4 . 7 4 .4 3 .9 3 .8 3*8 4 .2 5*5 5*7 2 -8 4 5 . 1 4 .5 4 .2 3 .8 3 .7 3 .6 3 .9 4 .6 4 . 3 2 .9 3 -8 4 5 .0 4 . 5 4 .3 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4*6 4 .4 3 .8 4 . 6 4 -8 4 4 .9 4 . 5 4*2 3*9 3*8 3*8 4*0 4*5 4*3 3*8 4*2 167*1 169*0 170*6 3*8 172*3 1 -8 5 4 .9 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .4 4 .2 3 . 9 4 .2 3 .9 4 . 0 2 -8 5 4 .9 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .5 4 .4 4*1 4*4 4 . 4 4 . 6 5 .2 3 -8 5 4 .9 4 . 5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 . 4 4 . 6 4 . 8 4 . 4 4 -8 5 4 .8 4 .4 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 . 3 4 .1 4 . 3 4 . 2 4 . 3 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 1 -8 6 4*7 4 .3 4*1 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 . 0 3 .9 3 .5 3 .1 2 .5 2 -8 6 4 .6 4 .2 4*1 3*8 3*8 3*8 3*9 4*1 4*0 3*8 3*9 3*8 3*8 3 .7 3*4 3 . 0 2 . 7 2 .9 3 -8 6 4 .5 4 .2 4 .Q 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3*8 3 .7 3*7 3 .6 3 .3 3 .0 2 . 8 2 . 9 2 .9 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1 -8 5 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 4 - 8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 I N I TI AL 174*5 1 7 6 .4 1 7 8 .0 179*1 180*4 1 8 1 . 7P QUARTER P - PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY F E O ER AL R ES ER VE BANK OF ST* LOUIS OCTOBER ¿ ft 1 ? M _______________________________ OUT PU T PER H O U R OF ALL P ERSONS* B U S IN ES S SECTOR _______________________________________________________________________________________C O M P O U N D E D A NN U A L R AT E S OF CHA NC E ________________________________________________ ____________________________________ TPftMI MAI______________________________________________________________________________ ___________INITIAL Q U A RT ER ______________________________________________________________________________________ 1977« IQO QUARTER 4 —A I i-ft? 7 -8 ? 4 -8 7 1 -8 * 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 2 -8 4 1 -8 4 3 -8 4 4— 8 4 1— 85 2— 85 - 0 . 4 2 -8 2 0 .6 1 .6 3 -8 2 0 .5 1 .0 0*4 1 .1 1 .6 1*6 100*3 101*9 1 .6 2 .1 2 .3 3 .2 3 .6 3*0 3*3 4 .3 5*0 6*4 3 -9 3 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .7 2 .6 2 .2 - 1 . 9 4 -8 3 1 .9 2 .3 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2 .5 0 .6 3 .1 1 -8 4 2 .2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .1 2 .9 1 .8 3*7 4*3 2 -8 4 2 .2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .0 3 .4 3 .5 103*5 103*0 103*8 104*9 105*6 2 . 7 105*5 3 -8 4 2 .0 2 .2 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .1 - 0 . 4 4 -8 4 1 .8 2 .0 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1 .3 1 .9 1*6 0*8 - 0 * 2 0*0 1 -8 5 1 .8 1 .9 2 .0 2*1 2 .0 1*8 1 .2 1 .7 1*5 0*8 0*1 0*4 2 -8 5 1 .8 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 1 .9 1*7 1*1 0*8 1*1 1*7 2*7 3 -8 5 1 .9 2 .1 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .6 2 .1 1*9 1*5 1*3 1*7 2*3 3*1 3 . 4 4 -8 5 1 .6 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1*8 1 .6 l . l 1*5 1*2 0*8 0*5 0*7 0*9 0*9 0*0 3-86 1 0 5 .5 1 0 5 .7 0*8 106*4 107*3 -3 * 3 106*4 1*7 1 .8 1 .8 1*9 1*9 1 .7 1 .3 1*6 1*5 1*1 0*9 1*1 1*4 1*5 1*1 0 .0 3*4 1*6 1 .7 1 -7 1 .8 1*8 1 .6 1*2 1*5 1 -4 l . l 0 .8 1 .0 1*2 1 .3 0 . 9 0 .1 1*9 0*4 1*5 1*6 1*6 1*7 1*7 X* 5 1*1 1*4 1 .2 0*9 0 . 8 0*9 1*0 1*1 0*8 0*1 1 .3 0*2 0 .0 3— 82 4 -8 2 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1 -8 5 2 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 - 8 6 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 1 -8 3 INI TI AL P- 2 -8 6 1 0 1 .0 2*4 . 1 -8 6 2 .8 2 -8 3 L-86 4 - 8 5 100*2 1 -8 3 2-8 6 3 -8 5 99*8 1— 8 2 4 -8 2 \ -ñ ? 3 -8 5 107*3 1 0 7 .4 107*4P QUARTER PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E O BY FEOE R A L R ESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS O C T O B E R ¿ f t 1 3 1 6 _____________ ________________________ _ 10 PRODUCTIVITY, RATI O COMPENSATION, AND LABOR S CAL E COSTS RATI O 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED S CAL E 1977-100 SOBftCE. 0 .8 . DEPARTMENT OF LABOft PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U NI T LABOR COSTS* ____________________________________________ _________________________________ CnHPOUMQFD A MMUAL BUSINESS SEC TO R BATES OF CHAHfcE______________ ____________________________ __________________________________ TERMINAI__________________________________________________ IMl II Al QUAtTEl_________________________________________________ 1977MW QUARTER 4 - HI 2 -8 2 \-ñ? 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 1 3 -8 3 4 -1 1 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 2 - 8 2 7 . 9 5 .4 3 -8 2 7 .6 6 . 3 7 .2 1 -8 5 2 -0 5 3 -0 5 4 - 0 5 1 -0 6 2 -0 6 1 5 3 .5 1 5 6 .2 1 5 6 .8 6*1 4*7 4*3 1 .5 4*0 3*5 2*9 0*8 0*0 2 -8 3 3 .* 2 .1 1 .3 - 0 * 6 - 1 . 7 - 3 . 3 3 - 8 3 3 * 4 2*3 1*7 0*4 0 .0 0 .0 3 .4 4 - 8 3 3*3 2*3 1*8 0 .0 0 . 6 0 .0 2 .0 2 .3 1 -8 4 3*1 2*2 1*7 0 .9 0 . 7 0 .9 2 .3 1 .0 1 .3 2 -8 4 2 .0 2 . 0 1 .6 0 . 0 0 . 6 0 .0 1 .0 1 .3 0 . 0 0 . 3 3 -8 4 3 .0 2 .3 1*9 1 .3 1 .2 i . 4 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 2 . 5 4 .9 4 - 8 4 3*0 2*4 2*1 1*5 1*6 1*0 2*6 2*5 2*5 3*0 4 .3 3*0 4-ft2 4 -8 4 1 5 1 .5 1 0 .4 1 OD W _ l-ft2 1 -8 2 1 5 6 .0 1 5 5 .5 1 5 6 .0 1 5 7 .7 1 5 0 .2 1 5 0 .3 1 6 0 .2 1 6 1 .7 1 6 3.1 1 -0 5 3 .1 2 .5 2 .2 1 .7 1 .0 2 .0 2 .0 2 .7 2 .7 3 .1 4 .1 3 .7 3 .5 2— B5 3 .0 2 . 5 2 .2 1 .0 1 .0 2 .0 2 .7 2 . 6 2 . 6 2 . 9 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 3 -8 5 2 . 9 2 .4 2 .1 1 .7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .5 2 .4 2 . 4 _ 2*6 3 .1 2 . 6 2 .2 1 .0 4 - 8 5 3 .1 2 . 7 2 .5 2 .1 2 . 2 2 .4 3 .0 2 .9 3 . 0 3 .2 3 . 0 3 . 5 3 .5 4 .1 7 .2 1 -8 6 2 . 9 2 .5 2 .3 1 .9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2 . 6 2*6 2*7 3 .1 2 .0 2 .6 2 . 4 3 .2 2 - 8 6 2 .9 2 . 5 2*3 2*0 2*0 2*1 2 . 6 2*5 2 . 6 2 .7 3 .0 2 .0 2 . 4 2 . 9 0*0 2 . 4 2 . 5 2 . 9 1 .4 2 . 5 2 . 6 2 - 8 5 3 -8 5 4 - 0 5 1 -0 6 2 - 8 6 3 - 8 6 2 . 9 2 .5 2 .3 2 . 0 2 . 0 2 .2 2 .6 2 .5 2 . 6 2*7 4 -0 1 1 -0 2 2 -0 2 3 -0 2 4 -0 2 1 -0 3 2 -0 3 3 -0 3 4 -0 3 1 -0 4 INITIAI. P- 3 .0 2 .7 2 .6 2 -0 4 3 -0 4 4 -8 4 2 . 2 1 -8 5 1 6 4 .0 1 6 4 .4 1 6 7 .3 - 0 . 7 1 6 7 .0 1 6 0 .0 1 6 9 . IP QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY QCTQMI 29. 11 F E O E R A L R E S E R V E BAJtft O F S T . L O U I S 1 + 1 4 _______________ ___________________________ fiRttSS NATIONAL ..PRODUCT IN CUftREHT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL QIIAfiTFft 4-8 1 1 -8 2 2-82 3-82 1 -8 2 -0 .2 2 -8 2 2 .9 6.2 3- 8 2 2.8 4 .3 2.5 4 -8 2 3.1 4.3 3.4 4.2 1-8 3 3. 9 4.9 4.5 5.5 4-8 2 1-83 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4-83 1-8 4 2-84 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-84 4-84 1-8 5 2 -8 5 3 -6 5 4-85 1-86 2-8 6 3 *1 12 .6 3* 159 .5 3 1179 .4 3*2i2.5 6.8 3* 265.8 2 -8 3 5.3 6.5 6 .6 8.0 9 .9 13 .0 3-83 5.9 7.0 7 .1 8 .3 9 .7 11.2 9.4 4-8 3 6.7 7.7 8.0 9.1 1 0 .4 11 .6 10.9 12 .4 14.9 3* 367 .4 3*4 43 .9 3* 545 .8 1-8 4 7.6 8.6 9 .0 10 .1 11.3 12.4 12.2 13 .6 3* 670 .9 2 -8 4 7 .6 8.6 8.9 9 .8 10.7 11.5 11.2 1 1 .8 11.5 8.2 3 -8 4 7.5 8.3 8 .5 9.3 10 . 1 10 .6 10.1 10 .3 9.7 7 .1 6.1 9 .2 8.5 6.4 5.5 4.9 3* 743 .8 3* 799.7 3* 8 4 5 .6 4 -8 4 7.3 8 .0 8.2 8.8 9.4 9.8 9.3 1-8 5 7 .2 7.9 8.1 8 .6 9 .1 9.4 8.9 8 .8 8.1 6 .5 5.9 5 .9 6.8 2 -8 5 7 .1 7.7 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.0 8 .5 8.4 7. 7 6 .4 5.9 5.8 6.3 5.8 3 -8 5 7 .1 7.7 7.8 8 .2 8 .6 8 .8 8 .3 8 .2 7 .6 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 4 -8 5 7 .0 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.4 8 .5 8.1 7.9 7.4 6 .3 6 .0 6.0 6 .3 6 .1 6.3 3* 909 .3 3 *9 65 .0 4 *030.5 4* 08 7 .7 5.6 4* 14 9 .2 1-86 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.3 7.9 7 .7 7.2 6 .3 6.1 6.0 6.3 6 .1 6.2 6.0 6.2 2-86 6.7 7.2 7.2 7 .5 7.8 7.9 7.4 7.3 6.8 5 .9 5 .6 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.3 4.8 4.3 2 .6 4 .5 6.4 1-86 2-66 3-86 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.7 7 .8 7 .4 7.2 6 .7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4-8 1 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-8 3 2—83 3 -8 3 4-8 3 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4-84 1 -8 5 2-65 3-65 4-85 4* 1 7 5 .6 4* 241 .1 IN IT IA L iQUARTER ________ _______ ______________________ HtEPAftEP BY FEOEfiAL RESERVE BlVfffi P f STt I W S NOVEMBER 19* 1966 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1 9 8 2 DOLLARS_____________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________________ B I LL IO N S Of TERMINAL I N I T I A L QUARTER DOLLARS QUARTFR_________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________ _____________________ ___________ ____________ ANNUAL RATES 18 6 2 8 6 3 6 5 4 8 5 1-8 5 2 -6 5 2 -8 4 3 8 4 4 8 4 1-82 2-82 1-83 2 -8 3 3-83 4-83 1 -8 4 3-82 4-8 2 4 -8 1 i* t? ó .4 1-8 2 -5 .9 2-82 -2 .4 1.2 3-82 -2 .7 -1 .0 -3 .2 4-82 -1 .9 -0 .5 -1 .3 3 * 17 9 .9 3*1^4.5 3*1 59 .3 0.6 3*1 1-83 -0 .8 0.5 0.3 2.0 3.5 2-83 0.8 2.2 2.5 4 .4 6.4 9.3 3-83 1.5 2.8 3.2 4.8 6 .3 7.7 6 .0 4-83 2 .2 3.5 3.8 5.3 6 .5 7.5 6.7 7.3 1-84 3.1 4.2 4.7 6 .0 7 .2 6*1 i.i 6.5 9.8 2-84 3.3 4.3 4.7 5.9 6 .6 7.5 7.0 7.4 7 .4 5.0 3 *3 06. 4 3* 365 .1 3* 44 4 .7 3 *487.1 3 * 5 0 1. 4 3-84 3.2 4.1 4.5 5.4 6 .2 6.6 6. 1 6.1 5 .7 3.7 2 .Í 4-84 3.0 3.9 4.2 5.0 5 .6 5.9 5 .^ 5. Í 4.6 2 .9 1.9 1.5 1 -8 5 3.0 3.8 4.1 4 .8 5 .3 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.3 3 .0 2 .3 2 .3 3 .1 2-85 3.0 3.7 3 .9 4 .6 5 .Ó 5.1 4 .6 4.4 4.0 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 3-65 3. Í 3.7 Í.9 4 .5 4 .9 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.1 1.7™ 2.7 3 . 2 — TZ2 4.1 " 4-65 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 ¿ .6 3.1 2*1 1- 8 6 3.0 3 .6 3 .6 4 .3 4 .6 4.1 " 4<T5 4.1 3. 8 3.0 ' 2 .r~ 2.6 3.1 i.l i . y ¿.9 2-8 6 2.9 3.4 3 .6 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.5 2 .5 2.7 2 .6 2.6 ¿.1 3-86 2.9 3.4 3.5 4 .0 4 .2 4.3 3.9 3.7 3. 4 2.6 2 .5 2 .5 2.7 2 .6 2 .7 2.3 2.4 1. 7 2.9 4-61 1-62 2-62 3-62 4-6 2 1-63 2-63 3-63 4-6 3 1-64 2-64 3-6 4 4-6 4 1- 6 5 2-6 5 3-85 4-8 5 1- 8 6 2-66 66. 6 3* 25 8 .3 3* 52 0 .4 3 *5 47.0 3 *5 6 7 .6 2.* 3 *6 0 3 . 8 3*6 22 .3 3* 65 5 .9 3*8 3 * 6 ¿ l .4 0.6 3 *6 07. 3 I N I T I A L QU ARTE» r H E f A M E P or f t P E M l »ESj R V E »«»« of si. LOUIS NOVEHSE« 12 !♦, 1986 GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T RA T IO SCA LE QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R A T IO S C A L E T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 6 3.0 2 . 8 I 0 9 8 7 6 2.7 978 979 980 198 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 3RD QUARTER P R E P A R E D 13 BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO I982-IOO SCALE 1982-100 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 ■AS U SED IN N A TIO N A L PERC EN T A G ES LA TEST ARE INCOME ACCOUNTS ANNUAL DATA P L O T T E D ' SO U RCEi R A T E S OF CHANOE FOR P E R IO D S D EPARTM EN T OF COMMERCE 3RD O UARTER PREPA RED in U .S . IN D IC A T E D . P L IC II PRICE DEFLATOR FIirf if t O t t CONPOUNOEO AN N UAL IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L RATES BY FED ER A L RESERVE tA N K OF ST. L O U IS NATIONAL PRÛDUCT O F CH AN CE 1 98 2 Q UARTER * 100 QHABTPQ 4-81 1-82 5 .9 2-82 5 .4 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1 - 83 2-83 3-83 4 - 83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4—64 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 9 8 .2 5 .0 9 9 .4 1 0 0 .8 3-82 5 .5 5 .4 5 .8 4-82 5. 1 4 .8 4 .7 3 .6 101 1 0 2 .5 1-83 4 .7 4 .4 4 .2 3 .4 3 .2 2-83 4 .4 4 .1 3 .9 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3-83 4 .3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 4-83 4 .3 4 .1 4 .0 3 .6 3 .6 3 .8 4 .1 4 .7 1-84 4 .4 4 .2 4 .1 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .3 4 .7 4 .6 4 .0 4 .1 3 .8 1 0 3 .3 IÖ4.2 1 0 5 .4 1 0 6 .6 1 0 7 .4 3 .0 2-84 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3-84 4 .2 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3 .7 3 .2 3 .4 4-84 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .3 3 .4 3 .4 1-85 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .7 2-85 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 108 . 3 LÔ4. 2 1 1 0 .2 Lll.l 111.8 112.8 3-85 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 Ì.4 "" i . 5 i. 6 3 .4 5.7 *.F" 5.2 ¿.Ç 2 .5 4-85 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 Ì.2 i. i 3 .6 1-86 3 .8 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 i.t 2-86 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .1 1 .8 3-86 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .6 2 .7 3 .6 4 - 81 1-82 2-02 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-Ô3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-Ô 5 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 .1 IN IT IA L 113. 5 ¿.5 1 1 4 .Ô 1 1 5 .0 'Q UARTER PREPAREO N O V EM B ER 14 BY FEO E R A L 19» 198 6 RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS P E R SONAL CONSUttPTlQH EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT D OLLARS CO M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE terminal B I LLIONS OF I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER annual 4- 8 1 1-8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 1 -8 3 2-83 3-83 4-83 1 -8 4 2 -0 4 3 -8 4 4-84 1 -8 5 2-85 4 -8 5 3-85 1-86 rates 2-86 7.6 1* 99 6 .3 2 -8 2 6.6 2 * 0 2 3 .8 3— 82 7 .2 7.1 8.5 4 -8 2 8.0 8.1 9.4 1- 8 3 7.5 7.5 2 -8 3 8.4 8 .6 3-83 8.5 8.7 4 -8 3 8.7 1- 8 4 5 .6 2 *0 6 5 . 6 10.3 2 * 1 1 7 .0 8.2 8.0 5.7 ¿*144.6 9.3 9.6 9 .3 1 3 .0 9 .3 9 .5 9 .3 11 .1 8 .9 9.4 9 .6 9.4 1 0 .6 9.5 9.7 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.4 ' 9.2 10 .1 9.2 9.1 8.6 2 -8 4 8.7 8.9 9.3 9 .4 9.2 9.9 9.2 9.1 8.8 9.1 tjj 1 CO + 1- 8 2 8.4 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.6 9. 1 8.3 8.1 7.5 7.0 5.0 4-84 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.8 8 .1 7.9 7.4 7.0 6.0 7 .0 2*213.0 2 *2 62.8 9.3 2 * 3 1 5 .8 2 *3 63. 8 2 *416.1 2*445.6 2* 48 7 .2 1- 85 8 .2 8.2 8 .5 8.5 0.3 8.6 8.0 7 .8 7.4 7 .1 6.4 7.1 7.2 2 -8 5 8. 1 8.2 8.4 8.4 8 .2 8 •b 7.9 7.7 7.4 7 .1 6 .6 7 .2 7.3 3-85 8.1 8.2 8 .4 8.3 0.2 8 .4 7.9 7 .> Ì. 5 ^.3 6.9 7 .4 2*530.9 2* 5 7 6 .0 7.3 7.7 2 *6 2 7. 1 8.2 2 *6 67. 9 4 -8 5 8 .0 8.0 8.2 8.2 0 .0 8 .2 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 6 .4 1- 8 6 7.8 7.8 8.0 7.9 7.7 7 .9 7 .5 7.3 7.0 6.8 6 .5 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.4 *.5 4.6 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.4 4.9 2-86 7.8 i-n 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.8 7 .5 1-Ç2 Izà l 3 -8 2 Ì-&.Ì i-8 3 iZ È Ï 7.1 7.3 6.8 7.1 6.6 6.9 6 .7 6.9 6.9 i-a* 6 .9 ¿ .8 1^5 2*732.0 6.4 6.4 7.4 9.7 3-85 4-8 5 1-86 >0 «0 1 <N 3-86 7 .7 2* 6 9 7 .9 2*795.9 I N I T I A L QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF S T . L O U I S N O V E M B E R 19* i $ 8 6 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN 1 9 0 2 D O L L A R S C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L RATES OF C H A N C E TERMINAL IN ITIA L 1 -8 2 2-8 2 <N 00 1 4 -8 1 4-8 2 1-83 2 -8 3 3-83 4-83 1 -8 4 QUARTER 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3 -8 5 4-8 5 1-86 2-86 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES ¿ • ô ii.i 1-8 2 2.2 2 -8 2 2.1 1.9 3 -8 2 2 .1 2.0 2.1 4 -8 2 2.9 3 .1 3.7 ¿♦Ô4T.Ô ¿*651.è "2*070.7 5.3 ¿*7W.2 1-8 3 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.0 2-03 3.8 4.1 4.6 5 .5 8.0 3 -0 3 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.4 5.4 6 .7 4-03 4.2 4.4 4 .9 5.4 6 .3 5.4 5.5 1-04 4.2 4.4 4 .8 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.1 2-04 4.3 4 .6 4.9 5.8 5.2 5.2 5.0 6.0 2 * 135 .1 2 * 16 3 . 0 5.3 2*191.9 2* 2 1 3 .8 ' ¿*¿53.3 3-04 4 .1 4.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.8 3 .6 1.3 4 -0 4 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.5 4.8 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.5 2.3 3.3 1-85 4.0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2.7 3 .5 2 * 27 1 .7 2* 2 9 2 .3 3.7 2* 3 1 1 .9 2-85 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4 .5 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 3-85 4.0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.9 4.1 4 .4 r.T" 4-85 3 .9 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 3 .9 3.8 3 .6 3 .5 3. 1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 I .Ì 2 *3 4 2 . 0 ¿*351.7 1 -8 6 3.9 4 .0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.6 3.6 2-86 4 .0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4 .3 4.4 4 .1 4 .0 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.0 4 .2 3.8 4 .9 3-86 4 .1 4.2 4.4 4 .5 4.4 4 .5 4 .3 4.2 4 .1 4.1 3.9 4 .2 4.3 4.4 4 .6 4.5 4.4 4 -8 1 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-8 4 2 -8 4 _ 3 - 8 4 4-84 1-85 2-85 3 -8 5 4-85 ¿*¿44.3 5737Z-.7 6.Ì 2* 40 0 .4 ¿*4U.Ô 1—86 2—86 I N I T I A L QUARTER PR E » A K E P BT F f P e K A l (teSERVE BAWK Of ST. LOUIS NOVEH8E* 19, 19 » 15 6 : cm n** P à i W A T E D O M E S T I C IM V K T h e m t I N C U K E E U T D O L L A R S COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE TERMINAL OUARTFa initial 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES quarter 2-84 3-84 -30.9 2-82 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 ~ T59.5 -13.8 4¿7.8 452.2 3-82 -13.5 -3.2 -12.7 4-82 -18.7 -14.2 -23.3 1-83 -12.2 -11.I -10.3 19.6 9.7 38.1 5 9 .5 1 4 .9 37 .4 47.2 35.9 22.0 4 1 .6 49.8 45 .1 7.3 -6.8 14.2 1 5 .4 -32.7 409.¿ 42Ö.3 TBT7T" 519.7 579.8“ 5 4 .9 ¿59.5 1 9 .8 2 1 .7 2 8 .6 4 6 .4 5 4 .0 5 2 .2 6 1 .0 6 7 .4 17.3 1 8 .6 23.8 37.1 40.9 3 6 .6 3 6 .8 26 .6 10 .9 16.3 17.3 21.8 32.5 34.8 3 0 .3 29.0 21 .3 9.5 14.1 14 .8 18.4 27 .0 28.2 23.6 2 1 .2 14.0 0.2 12.3 1 2 .7 1 5 .7 22.8 23.2 18 .8 16 .2 9.7 8.3 12.2 12.6 15 .2 21 .5 2 1 .8 17 .7 15 .3 9.8 7.3 TÖTa 1 1 .0 1 3 .3 1 8 .8 18.7 FTTS 12 .5 774 7.4 10.6 1 0 .8 1 2 .8 17.8 1 7 .6 14.1 11 .9 1 1 .4 11.7 13 .7 18.4 18 .3 15.1 9.9 10.1 11 .8 15.9 15 .7 12 .6 9.0 10.5 1 4 .2 1 3 .9 11.0 4—82___1-83 2 -8 3 - h - f ì J ___ ¿Tfl¿___________3 - 8 2 657.5 -1 .2 ¿7 0 .3 ¿ s i.r l.l -5 .4 -1 .4 -5 .8 -6 .2 0.9 1.5 -0 .6 1.8 -0 .2 0.Ò -1.9 --0.I---2.i -4.7 1 .2 -0 .1 -1 .3 ¿5 0 .¿ 667.1 1 0 .5 776 13 .2 8.3 16.1 10 .7 3.0 6 .1 4- 8 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 3 .9 ¿5 7 IT 0.7 3-83 1 .3 1 -8 5 ¿ -85 3-8 5 66 9. 5 7Ó0.5 25 .3 "S57.5 5.4 -1 1 .3 "T7Ï -972 -7.1 4-8 5 1~86 2-86 ¿747Ô- I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEQERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS NOVEMBER 19* 1986 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE B I LL IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER TERMINAL 4- 8 1 1-82 2-8 2 3-82 4-8 2 1 -8 3 2-83 3- 83 4-8 3 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1- 8 5 2-85 3- 8 5 4-8 5 1-86 2-86 46 4. 2 1-8 2 -3 5 .5 2-82 -1 8 .5 2 .9 3-82 -1 7 .4 -6 .6 4-82 -2 1 .1 1 -8 3 -1 4 .3 467 . 5 44 8.¿ -1 5 .2 408 -1 5 .6 -2 3 .5 -3 1 .0 -8 .0 -1 1 .4 -9 .4 19.1 42 7. 1 486.9 2-8 3 -4 .0 3 .9 4.1 11 .5 41 .9 68.9 3-83 0.8 8 .5 9.7 17.0 39 .5 51.0 3 5 .0 4-83 5.6 13.3 15 .1 22 .3 41.2 4 9 .4 4 0 .5 46 3 524 . 8 57 7. 2 649.3 1 -8 4 10 .6 18.3 20.6 28.0 44 .8 52.0 46.8 5Í 1 60.1 2-84 9.5 16 .1 17.9 23 .6 36.2 39.9 }}.4 9 26 .7 0.2 3-84 9.2 15.0 16 .5 21.2 3 1 .4 3 3 .5 27.4 25 6 19.3 3.0 1 6 4 9. 1 6 5 8 .9 5.8 ¿49.9 4-8 4 7.9 13.0 14.1 17.9 26.1 z i. 2 1 .2 18 7 12 .6 0.1 0.1 1 -8 5 6.6 11 .2 1 2 .0 15 .1 21 .9 22 .2 16 .7 13 8.4 -1 .7 -2 .4 2-85 7 .0 11 . 2 11.9 14 . 8 20 .8 21.0 1 6 .0 13 6 8 .9 0.8 0 .9 -0 .7 1.8 i-8 $ 6.Ô 9.8 IÖ .3 1 2 .é 18.0 17 .8 13" T 10 é 6*4 —0 . 6 -0 .7 -2 .3 -1 .2 i -> .0 4-85 6 .0 9.5 10 .0 12 . 3 16.9 16 .7 12 .5 16 0.3 6.4 0.7 0.5 3 .1 -0 .7 6 .0 1-86 6.8 10.2 10.7 12.8 1 7 .2 17 .0 1 3 .2 2 .6 3.0 2.5 4 .2 7 .2 5.8 12 .9 2-8 6 5 .7 8.8 9 .2 11 .1 14.9 1 4 .6 1 0 .9 Ò 5.8 1 .0 1.1 0 .5 1.4 3 .3 i.4 4.4 3 . 6 —1 0 . 8 3 -8 6 4 .8 7 .7 8 .0 9 .6 1 3 .1 12 .7 9.2 3 4.3 —0 . I -0 .1 -o .é -0 .2 1.0 -0 .9 Ò .7 -1 .0 -1 0 .2 —9*6 W L l-ffl i- n . _ír.fi3 1 -8 6 2-86 -IzftL . -L-U ? - 9 ¿ - 4-8 2 . i- n . 6.4 7. è ll -4 .4 6.2 — - -7 .Ó 63 a . 2 655.6 11.4 __4zü_ ¿43.8 ¿53.2 ¿84.0 20.2 664 . 7 6 4 8.1 I N I T I A L QUARTER RESERVE m 16 m i v m * BANK OF ST. LOUIS C O V E « MUE NT P U R Q 4 A S E S OF fcQOPS C O M P O U HOED A N N U A L AM) S E K V IC E S m C m tF M T D O LLA RS RATES OF CHANGE - f e l l U Q» * OF INITIAL QUARTE» TERMINAL DOLLARS _OUAKTFB 4-81 1-82 2— 82 3-82 5.9 4-8 2 1-83 " 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 " 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 622.1 ~ S H .l 7.4 8.2 14.4 9.5 10.8 15.3 7.4 "T X T 7 1 ’ " 16.2 6.6 ¿7 1 . f t ¿¿«.I -2.2 675.2 480.7 7.9 5 .2 4.9 1- 8 5 "777 2- 8 5 -2* 7 3.7 10 .5 “ 876 10.4 17.6 25 .2 9 .3 1 3 .6 1 5 .1 7.4 7.4 872 8 .0 87s 776 870 677 772 779 a ll 874 878 3-85 T T ó ------- T n --------&.4~' ' ft.a------- 971--------9 . 4 4-85 "574--------9 . 9 T75 4 -e i 1-8 2 ¿-&2 3-82 4-82 1 -8 3 “57571“ 0.3 S 8«T I ¿93.2 73 3.3 743-* 5 .9 9 .6 1 2 .9 1 3 .7 8 * 4 1 1 .0 9^3 TTTi 1 2 .1 871 976 7 6 3 .; T75 777.3 7 W .0 11 .8 12 .0 1 0 .0 975 1 0 . A— 12 .4 1 2 .7 1Ô.4— 1 1 . 5 11 .7 1 0 .Y 12 .5 12.8 10.8 11.* Ì7ò 979 9 .9 979 778 872" U .i 13.7 14.7 13.1 775----77*----575----ITT- ~TTT 871-- 57?-- T7T-- 573“ 8.4 8.9 TÔ7T 10 .1 6 .4 8 .9 1 0 .0 9 .9 2 -8 3 3-83 4-83 1-84 970 972 8.3 ¿-34 3-84 1 1 .6 02 9: 7 1 3 .9 — I T 7 T " S55V6' 836.7 ^ Î 7 Î ----------------1.2 860.8 i2 .a “874 575“ 775----579“ "T 7 5 — 1ÏÏ72--------*75“ 4-84 4-8 5 1- 8 5 2-85 3-8 5 1-86 878.5 2 -8 6 1HI T I A L Q U A R T E R mrmv r e s e r v e b a n k _ o f, s * . l q u i s _ NOVEMBER 19« 1986 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GQQQS AMD SERVICES 1H 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B I L L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER 4 -6 1 1- 8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4-82 1-8 3 2 -8 3 3-83 4-83 1 -8 4 2- 8 4 3 -8 4 4-84 1 -8 5 2-8 5 -0 .8 2 -8 2 -1 .9 -3 .1 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 6 4 2 .5 3 -8 2 1.4 2 .5 6.4 3.8 5.4 9.9 11 .4 1 -8 3 1 .7 2.3 4.2 2.1 44Ô.1 -6 .4 444.2 65Ó . 9 2-63 1.6 2 .0 3.4 1 .7 -2 .8 3 -8 3 1.6 2.0 3.0 1 .7 —1.3 1.4 1.7 4 -8 3 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.0 -2 .7 -1 .4 -2 .7 -6 .8 1-8 4 1.0 1.2 1. 8 0.8 -1 .2 -0 .1 -1 .0 5 .1 5 .0 11 .5 18 .4 3.7 4.2 8 .1 9.7 1 .7 4 .1 4 .6 7.7 8.6 4 .0 6 .3 4 .2 6.6 6 .9 3.4 4.2 2.2 4.7 6.7 7.1 4 -4 5.4 4 .9 7.7 5 .6 7.7 8.2 6.3 7*5 7*0 10*8 13.9 1.1 2 -8 4 2.6 3.0 3.8 3.1 3.6 3-84 2.5 2 .9 3.5 3.0 3.2 4-84 2.8 3.2 3.8 3.3 1 -8 5 2.8 3.1 3.7 3.2 2-85 3 .1 3.4 4 .0 3.6 3-85 3.8 4.2 4 .7 4.4 4-85 4.2 4 .5 5.1 1 -8 6 3.1 3.4 3.8 2-86 3.5 3*é 4.2 3 .9 3.7 4-8 5 62 9.7 4-82 3—86 3-85 634.6 1-82 4 .0 1 -8 2 4 .4 l-M 3.7 2.3 3.5 3.9 4.3 45 3.4 4 4 2. 2 6 5 0 .2 678 . 2 6 8 1 .0 691 . 5 6 9 5 .3 TÜ 8 .3 7 3 1 . fa 3.8 4 .9 4.6 4.3 5.4 6.3 8.0 6.5 6.5“ é*ó 6.4 10*5 11.9 3.5 2 .9 3. à 4.2 5.4 * .4 3 .4 4 .3 3-9 4*i 3.2 4.2 4.7 6.0 6 .1 4 .6 5 .0 4.0 4.4 4*8 1.9 -1 .9 5.2 ü.7 5.4 3.3 1.2 V -8 5 2-8 5 3-8 5 4-8 5 4 .* - iMfc*. 4.4 1 -9 ? "477 5.0 4 .1 6 .2 4.^ ,± :& à 1-84 i-9 1 - £ .4 t-W 10*0 7 4 9 .4 — 1*8 ■=12.3 725.2 9.7 '742.7 8* 7 — 7 . A 756.0 1-8 6 2-86 I N I T I A L QUARTER AL RE S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOUIS a 17 s m t i / m i DISPOSABLE PERSONAL ririTHMF YM riiftftFMT DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL — QUARTER 4-81 1-82 B I L L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 1- 8 2 2- 0 2 3-02 4-8 2 1-8 3 2- 8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 3.7 1- 8 4 2-84 3-8 4 4-84 1- 8 5 2-05 3-05 4-0 5 1 -0 6 2-06 2 »207.2 2-8 2 5.1 6 .4 3 -8 2 5.6 6.6 4-82 6.0 6.8 6.9 7. 1 I —83 5 .8 6.3 6.2 6.0 2 -8 3 6.3 6.8 6 .9 6.9 6 .8 8 .7 3 -8 3 6.5 7.0 7. 1 7.2 7 .3 8.5 8 .2 4 -8 3 7. 5 8.1 0 .3 8.7 9.1 10 .5 11.4 1 4 .6 1-8 4 8.2 8.0 9.1 9 .6 1 0 .0 11.4 12.3 14 .4 14.1 2 -8 4 7.9 0.4 0.6 8.9 9.2 10.1 10.5 11 .2 9.6 5.2 3-84 7.9 0.3 0.5 8.7 9.0 9. 7 9.8 10 .3 8. 8 6.3 4-84 7 .7 0 .0 2»2 4 l.* 2.2 7 0 .6 6.7 0 .2 ¿ »M ft.l ¿ »H 5 .7 4 .8 8.4 8.5 2* 39 5 .4 9.0 9 .1 2»443.2 2»527.9 2»£T2 .7 9.3 8.0 6 .0 2 »646.3 2,i? 3 .fl 7 .4 6.4 5.4 ¿»7F 4.4 1- 8 5 7.4 7.7 7.0 7.9 8.0 8 ♦^ 8.3 8.3 7.1 5.5 5.5 4 .6 3.8 2-85 7.0 0.1 0.2 8.4 8.5 8.9 8.9 9.0 8*1 7.0 7.4 7.4 8.4 1 3 .2 2*t55.4 3-85 7. 1 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7 .J 6 .7 5.5 5.6 5.1 5 .0 5.6 -1 .4 4-85 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.8 7. 7 7.6 6.6 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.6 6.2 2.8 7.3 7 .4 2 »0 4 2 . 3 2 »¿32.0 2»882.2 2* 935.1 7.5 " 1- 8 6 7.2 7.4 7. 5 7.5 7.5 7. 8 7. 7 7 .6 6.9 6 .0 6.1 5.9 6 .0 6.5 4.4 2-86 7.1 7.3 7 .4 7.4 7.4 7. 6 7.5 7.5 6.8 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.4 4.0 " " T . T T 6 .0 6 .0 3-86 67s 679 679 775 775 771 77o 6*9 672 5.4 575 572 571 574 575 5.3 577 373 57? 4-8 1 1-92 2-62 3-8 2 4-8 2 1- 8 3 ¿-93 3-83 4-8 3 1“ 84 2-8 4 3-04 4-84 1-85 2 - 83 3-8 5 4-85 1-86 2-86 ____ 2* 97 8 .5 ¿ «982.7 ________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER______________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS NOVEMBER 19» 1986 rt © 1 ___________________ ________________________________________ DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS__________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ BI LL IO N S OF TERMINAL I N I T I A L QUARTER DOLLARS QHARTFR_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ANNUAL RATES 2-0 6 1- 0 6 4-05 3-05 2 -8 5 1-8 5 3-04 2 -8 3 4-84 3-83 1-82 2 -8 2 1 -8 4 2-84 3-82 4-8 2 1- 8 3 4-81 1- 8 2 2 *245.7 -1 .4 2 * 26 0 .4 2-82 2.7 3-82 I .6 0.4 4-82 1 .8 1 .3 1-83 I .9 1.6 2 »2 6 3 . 4 2 » ¿ 7 6. 1 2.3 2*2 80 .4 2.2 2. *3 n . i 2-83 1.7 2 .3 2.2 3.1 4.0 3-83 2. 1 2.6 2.6 3.2 3.5 4. 1 4.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.1 6.1 7 .2 6.9 7.9 6.0 6.5 2.2 5.9 6.3 2.9 3 .6 5.4 4.2 2 .5 2.7 1.0 4.5 3.4 2.0 1.9 1. 1 0.4 4 .4 3.4 3.7 3.7 4.7 4-83 1-8 4 3.7 4.4 4.6 5.3 2-84 3.6 4.1 4.3 4 .9 3-84 3.6 4-84 3 .4 1 -8 5 4.1 4 .2 4.7 4.4 3 .9 4 .0 3.6 3.7 5.3 5.1 5.6 4.7 5.0 4 .2 4.4 4.5 4 .7 4.9 5 .1 2»335.* 2 » 3 9 2. 7 10 .2 2 * 4 U .4 9.4 2 »460.3 2 »481.9 2 »4 9 3 .1 ¿»445.7 ¿»550.8 9.1 2-85 3.6 4.0 4.1 3-85 3.1 3 .4 3 .5 3.7 3.0 4.6 3 .T“ 2.1 2.1 l.7 ~ 2.3 —4*6 3 .3 3.4 3 .6 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.4 —0 . 8 2*6 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4 .1 4.1 3. 4 2 .7 2 .0 2.6 2.8 3.4 1.6 4*5 6*5 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.8 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.5 4*1 2.9 5*4 6*0 t.l 3.2 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 3.0 1.9 3.4 3.7 2.3 -2 .3 4 -0 3 1-0 4 2-0 4 3-0 4 4-04 i-8 5 2-05 3-0 5 4-8 5 1 -0 6 2-0 6 4-05 4.4 1-06 3.2 2-06 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3-0 6 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.6 3 .7 3.8 4-0 1 1-0 2 2-8 2 3-02 4-02 1-83 2-03 3 -8 3 2 »524.7 2 » 5 4 d . iJ 2 »5 0 1 . 2 2 »625.7 2 »610.3 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREP A R E D BY FEDE R A L RESERVE BANK. OF S T . LOUIS N O V EMBER 19» 1986 18 C O * P O*ATE PÄOfITS AFTER TAXES« ------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------- r r m » « * D F n âMMIlâi RATES OF CHAMfcF___________________ ______________________________________________ . B IL L IO N S OF J E ANIMAI----------------------- -------------------- --------------------------------- INITIAL Û1U1TE1____________________________ _______________________DOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES ----------------- — L=A2— 2=û2_______ a -a ? k -*? i-b i 2 -a * 4- * 3 î-a * ? - a v 3 - a 4 4 -a 4 __ l - a s 2- a s 3 -8 5 4 - 85 1 -8 * 2 -8 6 ______________ 1—82 - M i . 2__________________ ___________________________ _______________ _________________________ _______________________________________________________________ 107*5 1 0 7 .0 2-82 - 4 2 .4 - 1 .8 3-82 - 3 0 .5 - 0 .4 1 .1 4-82 - 2 6 .0 - 3 .9 —5 . 0 1 0 7 .3 1 0 4 .3 - 1 0 .7 1 1 0 .6 In ? 4 .5 6 .2 2 6 .4 2-83 - 6 .9 1 4 .0 1 8 .3 2 4 .7 4 7 .3 7 1 .7 3-83 0 .0 1 9 .8 2 4 .7 3 1 .4 4 9 .5 6 2 .5 4-83 0 *8 1 7 .9 2 1 .6 2 6 .1 3 7 .5 4 1 .4 2 8 .3 7 .0 1-84 1 .7 1 6 .7 1 9 .6 2 3 .0 3 1 .2 3 2 .4 2 1 .4 7 .8 8 .6 2-84 1 *1 1 4 .2 1 6 .3 1 8 .7 2 4 .4 2 4 .1 1 4 .4 3 .6 2 .0 3-84 —1 * 4 1 1 .2 1 2 .5 1 6 .3 1 4 .7 5 .8 - 3 .7 1 2 6 .6 1 4 1 .0 5 3 .9 1 1 4 3 .4 • o 1 - » J . - 1 7 * 1 .. 1 4 6 .4 1 4 4 .8 - 4 .3 - 1 4 .0 - 2 2 .6 1 3 5 .8 4-84 - 1 .7 8 .4 9 .5 1 0 .4 1 3 .4 1 1 .6 3 .9 - 3 .9 - 6 .5 -U .o - 1 4 .2 _ 1-85 - 3 .4 5 .4 6 .1 6 .6 8 .8 6 .7 - 0 .3 - 7 .2 - 9 .8 - 1 3 .9 - 1 6 .9 - 1 3 .9 - 2 2 .1 2-85 - 3 .0 5 .2 5 .8 6 .2 8 .1 6 .2 0 .0 - 5 .9 - 7 .9 - 1 0 .9 - 1 2 .5 —8 . 8 - 1 0 .7 1 2 6 .0 1 2 6 .7 2 .2 1 3 3 .4 - 2 .7 - 6 .0 —6 . 3 - 1 .8 —0 . 7 1 2 .1 2 2 .9 3 .9 - 0 .5 - 1 .4 - 2 .8 - 2 .5 2 .1 4 .0 1 4 .4 2 1 .1 1 9 .2 8 .3 6 .9 2 .4 - 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 3 .9 - 3 .8 - 0 .3 0 .7 7 .3 9 .0 2 .7 - 1 1 .5 7 .0 2 .9 - 0 .8 —1 .5 - 2 .6 - 2 .4 0 .9 1 .9 7 .5 8 .9 4 .6 - 2 .0 8 .5 7 .8 4 .0 0 .7 0 .2 - 0 .7 - 0 .2 3 .0 4 .2 9 .3 1 0 .8 7 .9 4 .4 1 3 .4 1 8 .6 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 7 .0 7 .5 7 .9 0» • 2 .4 8 .8 6 .4 7 .2 1-86 —1 * 0 5 .9 6 .4 6 .8 2-86 -0 *5 6 .1 6 .6 6 .9 8 .3 0 *4 6 .7 7 .2 7 .6 9 .0 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 O • 7 .« - 1 .5 —0 . 3 T 9 .4 1 0 .2 3-85 4-85 3-86 1 3 4 .1 - 4 .9 1 3 9 .4 1 3 5 .2 1 3 8 .0 1 4 4 .OP I N I T I A L QUARTER » NATIONAL INCOME BASIS________ ______________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________ _______________________ P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS ________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________fWTSftttft I9 t i m ___________________________________ H IS T O R IC A L N A TIO N A L E s tim a te s o f N IP A C u rre n t ta b le s B u s in e s s ♦ p u b lis h e d S t a t e s , U .S . in Th e and f u r t h e r W e a lth D e p a rtm e n t th e o f AND s e r ie s 1 9 8 3 -8 5 a re E s tim a te s N a tio n a l 1 9 2 9 -8 2 ? F o r In c o m e f o r f o r IN C O M E in SOURCES PRODUCT th e In c o m e N IP A and T a b le s . in f o rm a tio n and W a s h in g to n , 19 o f D .C . J u l y f o r p r e s e n t a tio n 1986 1 9 2 9 -8 2 A c c o u n ts w r it e B u re a u D ATA q u a r t e r ly th e s e rie s p r ic e s , (B E -5 4 ), C o m m e rce , in P ro d u c t S t a t i s t i c a l D iv is io n ACCOUN TS r e g u la r p u b lis h e d f o r OF to th e E c o n o m ic 2 0 2 3 0 . o f S u rv e y o f a re th e U n ite d N a t io n a l A n a ly s is , IN V EN TO R IES COMPARED W I T H M O N TH L Y SALES* MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 1 .6 8 68 1.64 64 1.60 60 1.56 56 1.52 52 1.48 48 1.44 44 1.40 40 1.36 36 1.33 1.32 1.28 32 28 24 1.24 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 «RATI OS BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA. SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 20