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N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c

T r e

October 1986
T h e

p r i c e o f oil fell b y

half f r o m

January

to A p r i l

o f this y e a r .

S u c h

a d e c l i n e in e n e r g y

prices

affects b o t h the g e n e r a l

p r i c e l e v e l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y s u b s t a n t i a l l y b e c a u s e it a l t e r s i n c e n t i v e s t h a t a f f e c t r e s o u r c e e m p l o y m e n t a n d o u t p u t .
l o w e r e n e r g y p rices p r o v i d e a n incen t i v e to u s e m o r e
a n d

structures.

elsewhere.
T h e s e

effects

growth.

F o r

a n d

reflected

of

exa m p l e ,

these

prices

continued

a

a n d

to J a n u a r y

p r o ducer

produ c e r

in

effects

c o n s u m e r

1 9 8 5

resources

previously

u se d

to

e c o n o m i z e

o n

energy

use

b e c o m e

m o r e

profitably

prices

1986,

but

deceleration

already

producer

11.7

b e e n

price

actually

fell at a n

for fuels a n d

to decline,

t e m p o r a r y
h a v e

fell f r o m

related p r o d u c t s

at a

slower

indexes,

percent

13

percent

the

w h i c h

rate

rose

January

rate.

a n d

in

of price

increase

at 5

4.5

a n d

an

acceleration

prices

rose

Productivity g r o w t h
i n t h e first h a l f o f
an inventory
at a

1.5

T h e

with

a

a
a

4.1

a

1986,

rate,

4.1

percent

slowing

F r o m

This

p o w e r

rate.

percent

rate

rate

in

rate

a n d

to A p r i l

decline

over

W h i l e


v ie w s


c h a n g e

occasioned

over

the

n o

first h a l f o f

g r o w t h

c o n s u m e r

the

a n d

percent

o f this y e a r :

w a s

associated

s a m e

period.

c o n s u m e r

annual

c o n s u m e r
with

a

F r o m

April
prices

rates,

prices

63.4

p r o ducer

a n d

the

b y

slowing

a

previous

in h o u r l y

last h a l f o f

over

sharp

1986,

prices

rose

at

a

2.9

O u t p u t p e r h o u r in the b u s i n e s s

the fourth quarter of

following

In the

in t h e

percent

despite a t e m p o r a r y

rise in p r o d u c t i v i t y
costs.

1.9

rose recently, as well.

correction.

percent

o f unit labor

a n d

at

the

t w o

in p r o d u c t i v i t y

observed.

respectively,

fell a t a 4 . 3

percent

h a v e

in p r o d u c t i o n g r o w t h

19 8 5

the

to the s e c o n d

previous

decline
increase

b e e n

to

in the

cost

in t h e s e c o n d

of energy

This

slowing

2.7

percent

a

energy

depressed

in

prices
b y

the

A p r i l to S e p t e m b e r ,

rate.

sector, a m e a s u r e

quarter of

percent

1986,

o f productivity,

q u arter that w a s
this m e a s u r e

accelerated

associated with

of productivity rose

quarters.

in unit l a b o r

quarters.

c o m p e n s a t i o n

t w o

percent

f r o m

rate o f decline

to S e p t e m b e r ,

d e c l i n e in e n e r g y p r i c e s s i n c e J a n u a r y , their pa t t e r n s o f g r o w t h h a v e b e g u n to r e t u r n to earlier levels. F r o m
pr o ducer

e m p l o y e d

t h e o u t p u t o b t a i n e d f r o m a g i v e n s u p p l y o f l a b o r a n d capital rises a n d t h e g e n e r a l level o f p r ices declines.

are

S o m e

S e p t e m b e r
rate

Furthermore,

T h us,

Specifically,

e n e r g y a n d to i n c r e a s e t h e e m p l o y m e n t o f e n e r g y - u s i n g capital e q u i p m e n t

cost

is r e f l e c t e d

s l o w e d

reflects

both

to

only

the

rate o f i n c rease

in
a

m o r e
in t h e

a

1.1

reduction

in the

p e r c e n t rate,

rapid

g r o w t h

c o m p a r e d

productivity

g r o w t h

first h a l f o f this y e a r

f r o m

1985.

—

T
F E D E
R
R

H
R
E
A

E
A L
S E R V E
N K of

ST. L O U S

e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m .

J o h n

A.

T a t o m

TOTAL C I V I L I A N E MPLOYMENT»
C O M P O U N O E D ANNUAL RATES OF C H ANCE
THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

T—
85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86 “1-86

ó -é ¿
106*951

»♦2

#
•
1
0
0

2-85
3-85

1.6

- 0 .9

5-05

Í.3

— .i
O

0 .8

6-85

0 .0

- 1 .3

- 1 .5

- 3 .7

7-85

0 .6

- 0 .2

0 .0

- 0 .»

106*871
1U6*V3V

106*601
3.1

106*871
107*210

8-85

1*2

0 .6

1.0

1.0

3 .5

3 .9

9-85

1*5

1.1

1.5

1 .6

TZs

3.7

3.5

107*519

10-85

1.7

1 .»

1.8

2 .0

3 .»

3 .6

“
3 .» ■ 3 .3

107*813

11-85

1.7

1 .»

1.8

1.9

3 .1

3.1

2.9

2.5

107*969

1.8

2.7

108*206

12-85

1.8

1 .6

1.9

2 .0

3 .0

3 .0

2 .4

2 .6

"7 .2 '

1-86

2 .»

2 .3

2 .6

2 .8

3 .8

3 .9

».Ó

» .1

» .3

5 .6

8 .6

2-86

1.9

1 .6

1.9

2 .Ó

2«¿

2.7

2 .5

2.3

Z .l

2 .2

2 .0

108*955
10b*561
108*788

to
1
«*
■

- » .3

1.9

l.t

2 .0

2.1

2 .7

¿"."7

2.$

2 .»

2.2

2 .3

2.2

- 0 .9

»-86

1.9

1 .7

1.9

2 .0

2 .6

2 .5

2 .»

2 .2

2.Ô

2.1

1 .4

-0 .2

1.8

1.2

5-86

1.9

1.7

1.9

2 .0

2 .6

¿ .5

2 .»

2 .2 .... "271"

2.1

2 .0

6.4

2.Ô

1.0

2 .$

10ö * b 92
iu v * ilo

2 .»

109*673

6-86

2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

2 .»

2 .9

2 .9

2 .8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

1 .6

3.1

3 .3

» .4

6 .»

7-86

2 .2

2 .0

2.2

2 .»

2*8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

1 .7

2 .9

3 .0

3 .7

» .3

2 .3

8-86

2 .2

2 .1

2*3

2 .»

2 .9

2 .8

"277”

2 .7

2 .6

2.7

2 .7

1 .9

3 .0

3 .0

3.5

Í.9

2 .V

375“

2 .2

2 .2

0 .8

0 .0

— .8
2

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

1.9

1.8

2 .0

2.1

2 .5

2 .»

2 .3

2-85

9-86

3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

2.1

1 .3

2 .1

2 .0

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

2 .2

2.1

2.1

109*882
110*1$$
109*891

IN IT IA L MONTH
♦SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHART OPPOSITE PACE

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
THOUSANOS
OF PERSONS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH

2-85
3-85
»-85

3 .8

3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
96*8T0

» .6
2 .9

97*10»
47*338

2 .9

5-85

3 .5

2 .9

6-85

2 .9

2 .»

2 .1

1.3

7-85

2 .9

2 .5

2 .»

2 .1

2 .9

8-85

2 .9

2 .5

2 .»

2 .3

2 .8

2 .7

97*»»2
97*672
97*890
98*128

9-85

2 .9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .8

2 .8

3 .0

10-85

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

3.1

3.1

3 .3

3 .7

11-85

3 .0

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

3 .0

3.1

3 .2

3 .3

12-85

3 .0

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

3 .0

3.1

3 .2

3 .2

3 .0

3 .0

1-86

3 .2

3 .0

3 .0

3 .0

3 .3

3 .»

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

3 .9

» .8

2-86

3 .0

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

3 .1

3.1

3 .2

3 .2

3.1

3 .1

3 .2

98*»28
9 8 * 6 ¿¿

2 .9

98*910
99*296
1 .6

$9*429

9 9 *»«»

■
■o-

3-86

2*8*

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .3

1.1

0 .7

»-86

2 .9

2 .8

2 .8

2 .7

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .0

2 .2

3 .7

5-86

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .T

2 .6

2 .6

2 .5

1 .9

2 .0

2 .6

1 .6

99*783
99*918
99,8»3

6-86

2 .6

2 .»

2 .»

2 .»

2 .5

2 .»

2 .»

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1 .9

1 .3

1 .3

1 .5

0 .»

- 0 .9

7-86

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .»

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .»

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1 .6

1 .6

1 .9

1 .3

1.1

3*2

8-86

2 .6

2 .5

2 .»

2 .»

2 .5

2 .»

2 .»

2 .»

2 .2

2 .2

2.1

1 .7

1.7

1 .9

1 .»

1 .»

2 .5

1.9

9-86

2 .5

2 .»

2 .»

2 .3

2 .»

2 .»

2 .3

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

2 .0

1 .6

1 .6

1 .8

1 .»

1 .»

2 .1

1 .6

1 .3

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

2-85

100*105
100*261P
100*368P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




i

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
- y --i i. iT
k
OCTOBER 3« 1986

2

EMPLOYMENT
R A T I O SCALE
M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

1978

1979

R A T I O SCALE
MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEGINNING JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IM ORATION AND EMI ORATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X.
MI
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SEAS ON A L L Y ADJUSTED

PERCENT

PERCENT
12.0

1 1 .

11.0

10,

10.0

9.

9 .0

8.

8.0

7.

7 .0

6.

6.0

5 .

5 .0




4.
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» SEPTEMBER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

3

L O U IS

4 .0

CONSUMER PR IC E INDEX FOR AL> UftBAH CONSUMERS. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

C O M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

1967*100

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH

2-85

3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

5* 8

319.2

4-85

5*0

» .2

320.4

5-85

» .2

3 .»

2 .7

6-85

3*9

3.3

2 .8

3 .0

7-85

3*6

3.0

2 .6

2 .6

2 .3

3-85

3 Ì1 .Ó
1 2 1 .S

3 2 2 .V "
323.1

8-85

3 .»

3 .0

2 .6

2 .6

2 .»

2 .6

9-85

3 .3

2 .8

2.6

2 .5

2 .»

2 .»

2.3

10-85

3 .»

3.1

2.9

2 .9

2 .9

3.1

3 .»

11-85

3 .8

3.5

3 .»

3 .6

3.7

» .1

» .5

5 .7

6 .9

12-85

3.9

3.7

3.6

3 .7

3 .8

» .1

» .5

5 .3

5 .7

» .5

1-86

3 .9

3 .7

3.6

3 .8

3.9

» .1

» .»

5 .0

5.1

» .3

» .1

2-86

3.1

2 .9

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .8

2 .9

3 .0

2 .6

1.2

- 0 .»

- » .6

323.7
3¿» .9

» .5

326.7
327.9

327.1

3¿6¿3

3-86

2.5

2.2

2 .0

2 .0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.0

- 0 .»

- 1 .9

- » .8

-5 .0

»-86

2 .1

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

0 .9

0 .3

- 1 .0

- 2 .3

- » .3

- » .1

- 3 .3

5-86

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.6

1 .»

1.3

1.2

1.1

0 .6

- 0 .»

- 1 .»

- 2 .7

- 2 .1

- 0 .6

¿ 2 5 .»
326.0

2*2

6-86

2 .3

2.1

1 .9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.2

0 .»

- 0 .2

- l.l

- 0 .2

1.5

3.9

2*2

2 .0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1 .»

l.l

0 .»

- 0 .2

— .8
0

- Ó .Í

i"r "

¿17

3.0

327.5

5.7

7-86

Ö.»

3¿7 .6
- T2872

8-86

2.2

2 .0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.2

0 .6

0.1

- 0 .»

0 .3

1 .»

2 .6

2.7

1.3

2 .2

9 -8 6

2 .3

2.1

2 .0

1 .9

1 .9

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.0

0 .6

O .l

0.8

1.8

2.9

3.1

2 .2

3.2

»«1

2 -8 5

3 -8 5

6 -8 5

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

» -8 3

5-85

324.3

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
OCTOBER 23» 1986
PRODUCER PR IC E IN D EX. FIN IS H ED GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED«
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE

2-85
3-85

1967 = 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
292.0

0 .»

243.5

4-85

3 .3

6# 3

5-85

3 .2

» .6

2 .9

6-85

1.8

2 .2

0 .2

2 9 » .2
- 2 .»

2 4 3 .¿

1

2 9 ». i

7-85

2 .0

2 .»

l.l

0 .2

2 .9

8-85

1.0

1.2

—
0.1

- 1 .1

- 0 .»

- 3 .6

9-85

-0.1

— .1
0

- 1 .»

- 2 .»

- 2 .»

- 5 .0

— .»
6

1.»

0 .6

0 .2

0 .8

0.1

2.1

11.2

10-85

1 .3

293.»
291. 6
2 9 » . »

2 9 6 .»

11-85

2.1

2 .3

1.7

1.5

2 .3

2.4

» .2

9 .8

8 .5

12-85

2*6

2 .9

2 .5

2 .»

3 .2

3 .3

5.1

9 .2

8 .2

8 .0

1 .0

1.5

1.2

2 .2

» .5

2 .3

- 0 .6

1-86

1.6

l.T

1.2

2^0.3
- 8 .5

'

”

'

"

2-86

- 0 .2

- 0 .3

- 0 .9

- 1 .3

- 1 .2

- l.T

- I.»

- 0 .»

- 3 .1

- 6 .7 -1 3 .3 -*17.8

3-86

- I . 1 - 1 .2

- 1 .9

- 2 .3

- 2 .3

- 2 .9

- 2 .8

- 2 .2

- » .7

- 7 .8 -1 2 .5 -• I» .» - 1 0 .9

»-86

- 1 .»

- 1 .6

- 2 .2

- 2 .7

- 2 .T

- 3 .3

- 3 .3

- 2 .8

- 5 .0

- 7 .» -10 .9 —
11.7

- 8 .5

296.1
291.3
288.^

- 6 .1

"

5-86

-0 .9

—
1.0

- 1 .6

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .»

- 2 .2

- 1 .7

- 3 .»

- 5 .3

- 7 .7

- 7 .5

-3 .8

0 .0

6 .5

6-86

- 0 .9

— .0
1

- 1 .2

—1.8

- I.*

- 2 .1

-¿.Ò

- 1 .5

— .0
3

— .5
»

— .5
6

- 6 .0

— .9
¿

* 0 .0

3 .2

Ö .Ö

7-86

-1.1

- 1 .2

- 1 .7

- 2 .0

- 2 .0

- 2 .»

- 2 .3

-1 .8

- 3 .2

- » .6

- 6 .2

- 5 .9

- 3 .3

- 1 .2

0 .»

-2 .5

8-86

-0 .8

- 0 .9

- 1 .»

- 1 .6

- 1 .6

- 1 .9

- 1 .8

- 1 .3

-2 .5

- 3 .7

- 5 .0

- » .5

- 2 .1

- 0 .2

1.3

- 0 .»

- 0 .6

3 .8

9-86

- 0 .6

- 0 .6

—
1.0

- 1 .3

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

- 1 .3

- 0 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .9

- » .0

- 3 .»

-1 .2

0 .6

1 .9

0.8

1.1

» .3

» .7

2-85

3-85

»-85

5-85

6-85

7-85 _ 8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

»-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

287.0

8-86

288.5
288.^
"

"

------

'

287.3
2ÔÔ.2
289.3

IN IT IA L MONTH
«OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R EV ISED TO REFLEC f LATE REPORTING




PREPARED BY F€OEJtAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS

O C T O B E R 10« 1986

4




PRICES

RATI O SCALE
1967- 100

RATI O SCALE

S EA SO NA LLY A D JU S TE D

1967- 100

CONSUMER P R I C E I NDEX B E « I MM1*0 J ANUARY 1079 I S FOR AL L URBAN CONSUMERS ( C f l - U ) .
C f l - U OA T A B E G I N N I N G I OSS INCORPORAT E A RE NTAL E Q U I V A L E N C E MEASURE FOR HO MEOt NERSHI P C O S T S .
P ERC EN TAGE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE FOR P ER I OD S
L A T E S T D AT A P L O T T E D «

I KOIC AT ED.

SEPTEMBER
PREPARED BY F EDERAL RE SERVE BANK OF S T .

R T SC LE
A IO A

PRODUCER PRICES

1967-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PE RC EN T AG ES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR PE RI O DS

LOUIS

RT SA
A IO C LE
1967-100

IN DIC AT ED.

L A T E S T D A T A P L O T T E D » SEPTE MBER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

PRODUCER P R IC E IN D EX. F IN IS H ED CnMSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED»
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL

IN IT IA L MONTH
3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1967 * 100
1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
272.4

3-85

- 5 .1

1
C
D
I*

2-85

-6 .0

- 6 .8

5-85

-7 .1

- 8 .1

- 9 .3

6-85

270.8
268.6
268.4

- 5 .6

- 5 .7

-5 .2

- 0 .9

T—
85

-2 .4

- 1 .6

0.1

5.2

11.8

8-85

- 3 .3

- 3 .0

- 2 .0

0 .6

1 .3

¿7 0 .9
209.0

-8 .1

2 6 ¿.4

9-85

- 4 .5

- 4 .4

- 3 .9

- 2 .4

- 2 .9

10-85

-1 .5

- 1 .0

0 .0

2 .0

2 .7

—
0.1

4.1

21.7

11-85

0 .0

0 .7

1.8

3.8

4 .8

3.1

T .2

17.6

13.6

12-85

1.3

2 .0

3 .2

5.1

6.1

5.0

8 .6

16.0

13.3

13.0

1-86

0 .5

1.1

2 .0

3 .5

4 .2

3 .0

5 .3

9 .9

6 .2

2 .7

2-86

-1 .2

- 0 .8

-0 .2

0.8

1.1

- 0 .4

1 .0

3 .5

- 0 .6

-9 .6 -1 1 .0

270.8
¿7 3 .7
276.5
- 6 .7

274.9

- 4 .9 -1 2 .7 -1 8 .3

Ztu.3
270.7

3-86

- 1 .0

- 0 .6

0 .0

0 .9

1.1

-0 .1

1.1

3 .3

-0 .1

- 3 .3

- 8 .1

- 8 .8

1 .8

4-86

- 0 .8

— .4
0

0 .1

1.0

1.2

0.1

1.2

3 .0

0 .2

- 2 .3

- 5 .7

- 5 .4

1 .8

1.8

5-86

0 .3

0 .7

1.3

2 .3

2 .6

1.7

2 .8

4 .7

2 .5

0 .7

- 1 .6

- 0 .2

6 .7

9 .2

6-86

0.3

O .t

1.2

2 .1

1.5

2 .5

4.¿

T ll~

Ò.6

- 1 .3

- 0 .2

5 .0

6 .0

8 .2

0 .0

T—
86

1.6

2 .1

2 .7

3 .6

3 .9

3 .3

4 .4

6 .1

4 .5

3 .4

2 .1

3 .7

8 .7

10.5

13.6

11.9

25.2

8-86

2.4

2 .9

3 .5

4 .4

4 .8

4 .3

5 .4

7 .1

5 .T

4 .9

3 .9

5 .5

10.1

11.8

14.5

13.6

21.1

it.t

6 .3

5 .0

3 .2

4 .5

8 .3

9 .4

11.0

9 .5

12.8

t.l

- 2 .1

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

7-86

8-86

2.2

2 .6

3 .2

4 .0

4 .4

3 .8

4 .8

2-85

9-86

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

4.1

271.1
¿7 4 .7

17.2

¿ F4.T
279.9
283.6
¿8 3 .1

IN IT IA L MONTH
«DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO REV ISEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING

PRODUCER

PRICE

INDEX . F INISHED GOODS. EXCLUDING FOODS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED«
1967 * 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

T—
85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

296.3

3-85

2 .9

*-85

6 .9

5-85

6 .9

9 .0

6-85

4 .2

4 .7

1. 6

- 3 .5

7-85

3 .4

3 .6

1.2

- 1 .6

0 .4

8-85

2 .5

2 .4

0 .4

- 1 .7

- 0 .8

- 2 .0

298.9

11.1

300.6

7 .0

299.7
299.8
299.3
298.Ö

9-85

1.4

1 .2

- 0 .7

- 2 .6

- 2 .2

- 3 .5

- 5 .1

10-85

2 .3

2 .2

0 .8

- 0 .4

0 .4

0 .4

1.6

8 .8

11-85

2.8

2 .7

1.6

0 .7

1.6

1.9

3 .2

7 .7

300.1
301.7

6 .6

12-85

3.1

3 .2

2 .2

1.5

2 .4

2 .8

4 .1

7 .3

6*6

6 .6

1-86

2 .0

1 .9

0 .9

0.1

0 .7

O.T

1.3

2 .9

1.1

- 1 .6

- 9 .1

300.9

2-86

0 .2

-0 .1

- 1 .1

- 2 .0

- 1 .8

- 2 .1

- 2 .1

- 1 .5

- 3 .9

- 7 .2 -1 3 .4 -1 7 .5

296.1

3-86

-1.1

- 1 .4

- 2 .4

- 3 .3

- 3 .3

- 3 .8

- 4 .0

- 3 .9

- 6 .2

- 9 .2 -1 3 .9 -1 6 .1 -1 4 .7

292.2

4-86

- 1 .6

- 2 .0

- 3 .0

-3 .8

- 3 .9

- 4 .3

— .6
4

— .6
4

- 6 .6

-9 .1 -1 2 .6 -1 3 .7 - 1 1 .7

- 8 .7

5-86

-1 .3

- 1 .6

- 2 .5

- 3 .3

- 3 .3

- 3 .6

- 3 .8

- 3 .7

- 5 .3

- 7 .2

- 9 .7

- 9 .8

- 7 .1

- 3 .0

2 .9

6-86

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

- 2 .4

-3 .0

- 3 .0

- 3 .3

- 3 .4

- 3 .3

-4 .7

- 6 .2

-8 .1

- 7 .9

- 4 .4

- ¿ .0

1.5

7-86

- 2 .0

- 2 .3

-3 .1

- 3 .8

- 3 .9

- 4 .2

- 4 .4

— .3
4

- 5 .7

- 7 .1

- 8 .9

- 8 .9

-7 .1

- 5 .0

-*. 8

- 7 .0 - n . 5

8-86

-1 .9

- 2 .2

- 3 .0

•3#6

- 3 .6

- 3 .9

-4 .1

- 4 .0

-5 .2

- 6 .4

- 8 .0

- 7 .8

- 6 .1

— .2
4

- 3 .1

- 5 .0

- 7 .4

—
Ö.8

9-86

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

- 2 .4

- 3 .0

- 2 .9

-3 .2

- 3 .2

- 3 .1

- 4 .1

- 5 .1

- 6 .3

- 6 .0

- 4 .2

- 2 .3

— .0
1

- 1 .9

- 2 .6

3 .4

7 .8

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

6-86

¿9Ô.Ô
"

¿9Ó .7
290.7

Ò.0

287.2
28T.Ö
"

2 M .«

IN IT IA L MONTH
♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R EV ISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING




PREPARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
OCTOBER 10* 1966

6

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION

R A T I O SCALE

R A T I O SCALE

1977-100

1978

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1979

1980

1981

1982

1977-100

1983

1984

1985

1986

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTED* SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

COMPOUMOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
1977 * 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

T—
85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
123.4

3-85

2*0

4-85

0*5

-1*0

5-85

1*3

1 .0

123.3
123.6

3*0

123.6

6-85

1*0

0 .6

1*5

0*0

T—
85

0*4

0*0

0*3

- 1 .0

- 1 .9

8-85

2*0

2*0

2 .7

2 .6

3 .9

10.2

123.4
Ì2 4 .4

9-85

1*5

1*5

2*0

l.T

2 .3

4 .5

0*5

0*3

0*5

0 .0

0 .0

0 .6

- 3 .8

124.3

- 1 .0

10-85

- 6 .6

123.6
124.8

11-85

l.T

1 .7

2*1

2 .0

2 .3

3 .4

1.3

2 .4

12.3

12-85

2*3

2*4

2*8

2 .8

3 .3

4 .3

2 .9

4 .2

10.1

8 .0

1-86

2 .T

2 .T

3*1

3 .2

3 .6

4 .6

3.5

4 .T

8 .7

6 .9

5 .9

2-86

1 .7

1.7

1*9

1 .8

2 .1

2.7

1 .5

1 .9

4 .2

1 .6

- 1 .4

125.6
126.2
125.3

- 8 .2

Ì2 3 .6

3-86

0*3

0*2

0 .3

0 .0

0 .0

0 .2

- l.l

- 1 .1

0 .0

- 2 .9

- 6 .2 - 1 1 .7 -1 5 .1

4-86

1 .0

1*0

1*1

1 .0

1.1

1 .4

0 .4

0 .6

1 .8

- 0 .2

- 2 .1

- 4 .7

- 2 .8

11.2

5-86

0*6

0*6

Ò.J

0 .5

0 .5

0 .8

- 0 .2

- 0 .1

0 .8

-1.0

-2.t

— .7
4

- 3 .5

" ¿ .*

-4.?

6-86

0*6

0*5

0*6

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

- 0 .2

— .1
0

0 .7

- 0 .8

- 2 .2

- 3 .8

-2.6

2 .0

- 2 .4

0.Ò

T—
86

1*0

0*9

1*0

0 .9

1 .0

1.2

0 .4

0 .6

1.4

0 .1

- 1 .0

- 2 .0

- 0 .8

3 .2

0 .6

3 .4

7 .0

8-86

1*0

1*0

1*1

1 .0

1 .0

1 .3

0 .6

O.T

1 .5

0 .3

- 0 .6

- 1 .5

- 0 .3

¿ .4

I. Ó

2 *4

4.4

1
.1

1.3

0 .7

0
.8

- l.l

0 .0

2 .8

1.2

2 .7

3 .6

1 .9

T—
85

8-85

1-86

28
-6

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

9-86

1*1

1 .0

1*1

1 .0

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

1 .5

0 .5

- 0 .3

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1 2 4 .Ï

i24.^
124.2
124.9

1*4

1 2 5 .IP
1 .9

12S.3P

88
-6

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM INA RY




PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
OCTOBER 16» 1986

7

PERSONAL

INCOME

R A T I O SCALE
MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
R A T I O SCALE
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
3 .8
3 .6
3 .4
3 .2
3 .0
2.8

2.6

2 .4

2.2

2.

2.0

1.8

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS

COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

2-85
3-85

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
3*273.8

5 .9

3*302.7

4-85

8.5

11.1

5-85

3 .8

2 .7

- 5 .0

6-85

4 .4

3 .9

0 .4

7-85

4 .3

3 .9

1.5

5 .0

3 .9

8-85

3 .9

3 .5

1.6

3 .9

2 .9

2 .3

4 .2

3 .6

3 .4

9-85

4 .0

3 .7

3*288.5
3*304.9

6 .2

3*315.4
3 *320.5

1.9

¿ * 3 3 3 .4

5.0

3*358.3

10-85

4 .6

4 .5

3 .4

5 .2

4 .9

5 .3

7 .0

9 .1

11-85

4 .7

4 .5

3 .6

5 .2

5 .0

5.2

6 .4

7 .1

5.1

12-85

5 .9

5 .9

5 .3

6 .8

7 .0

7 .6

9.1

10.5

11.2

3*372.3
3*418.0

17.5

1-86

5 .3

5 .3

4 .7

5 .9

5 .9

6 .2

7.1

T .T

7 .2

8 .3

- 0 .2

2-86

5 .4

5 .4

4 .8

6 .0

6 .0

6 .3

7 .0

7 .5

7 .0

7 .7

3.1

6 .5

3*417.4

3-86

5 .3

5 .2

4 .7

5 .7

5 .7

5.9

6 .5

6 .8

6 .3

6 .6

3.2

5 .0

3 .5

4-86

6*0

6 .0

5.6

6 .6

6 .6

7 .0

7 .6

8 .0

7 .8

8 .3

6 .2

8 .4

9 .3

15.5

5-86

5 .4

5 .4

5 .0

5 .9

5 .8

6 .0

6 .5

6 .7

6 .4

6 .6

4 .5

5.7

5 .5

6 .5

- 1 .9

6-86

5.1

5*1

4 .6

5 .4

5 .4

5.5

5 .9

6 .0

5 .6

5 .6

3.8

4 .6

4 .1

4 .3

- 0 .8

0 .2

T —86

5*0

5 .0

4 .6

5 .3

5 .2

5 .4

5 .7

5 .7

5 .4

5 .4

3 .8

4 .5

4 .1

4 .2

0 .7

2 .0

3 .9

8-86

4 .9

4 .8

4 .5

5.1

5 .0

5.1

5 .4

5 .5

5 .1

5 .1

3 .6

4 .2

3 .8

3 .9

1.2

2.2

3 .2

2 .6

9-86

4*8

4 .8

4 .4

5 .0

5 .0

5 .0

5 .3

5 .3

5 .0

5 .0

3 .7

4 .2

3 .8

3 .9

1 .7

2 .6

3 .4

3 .2

3*9

2-85

3-85

4-85

5 -8 5

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 1 0 -8 5 1 1 -8 5

1 2 -85

1-86

,2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-06

7-86

8-86

3 * 4 ? $ .4
3*445.1
3*486.8
3*481.3
3*481.9
3* 4 4 2 .4
3*500.3
3 *5 1 1 .5P

I N I T I A L HONTH
P - PRELIMINARY




PREPAft» BY

FEDERAL .RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
OCTOBER 23* I9 B 6

8

RETAIL
R A T I O SCALE
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1978

1979

SALES
R A T I O SCALE
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

SOURCEt U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST, SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

R E T A IL SALES
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
MILLIO NS OF
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86
111*999

O .T

4-85

13.1

27.1

5-85

7 .6

11.2

- 2 .7

6-85

4 .2

5 .4

- 4 .1

- 5 .4

7-85

5 .9

7 .2

1 .3

3 .4

12.9

8-85

8 .0

9 .6

5 .6

8 .5

16.2

19.7

9-85

9 .9

11.6

8 .7

11.8

18.1

20 .8

2 2 .0

118*295

**
■
0
1
0
»
V
A

2-85
5-85

3 .8

4 .3

0 .9

1 .7

3 .5

0 .6

- 7 .8 - 3 0 .3

114*785

11-85

4 .2

4 .6

1.8

2 .5

4 .2

2.1

- 3 .1 -1 3 .7

12-85

5 .3

5 .8

3 .4

4 .4

6 .1

4 .8

1 .3

- 4 .8

11.4

1 5 .9

1-86

5 .3

5 .8

3*6

4 .4

5 .9

4 .8

2 .1

- 2 .4

9 .2

10.4

5 .1

2-86

4 .7

5 .1

3.1

3 .8

5 .0

3 .9

1.5

- 2 .2

6 .4

6 .3

1 .8

- 1 .5

114*256
113*992
113*468
114*620
116*349

115*433

7 .0

116*861
117*349
117*200
116*684

3-86

3 .9

4 .2

2 .3

2 .8

3 .8

2 .7

0 .5

- 2 .7

4 .0

3 .3

— .6
0

- 3 .4

- 5 .2

4-86

4 .4

4 .7

3 .0

3 .6

4 .5

3 .6

1.8

- 0 .8

5 .2

4 .8

2 .2

1 .3

2 .7

11.1

4 .8

5 .1

3 .6

4 .1

5 .0

3 .8

3 .4

5 .1

10.7

10.2

6-86

4 .7

4 .9

3 .5

4 .0

T—
86

4 .9

5 .2

3 .9

4 .4

8-86

5 .7

6 .0

4 .8

9-86

8 .4

8 .8

2-85

3-85

5-86

117*715
118*675

4 .3

2 .7

0 .5

5 .9

5 .7

4 .8

4.1

2 .7

0 .8

5 .5

5 .3

3 .6

3 .3

4 .6

8 .0

6 .5

2 .9

5 .1

4 .5

3 .2

1 .5

5 .9

5 .7

4 .4

4 .2

5 .4

8 .2

7 .3

5 .8

8 .9

5 .3

6.1

5 .6

4 .5

3 .0

7 .1

7 .2

6*1

6 .3

7 .6

10.4

10.2

10.1

13.9

19.2

7 .9

8 .6

9 .6

9 .3

8 .6

7 .5

11.8

1 2 .3

11.9

12 .8

15.0

18.8

20.4

2 3 .1

3 0 .6

43.1

71.8

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

5-86

6-86

7-86

8-86

118*960
119*804
12l*574P
127*1806

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM INARY
E- ESTIMATED




PREPARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS
OCTOBER 15« 1986

9

H O U R L Y C O M PENSATION» B U S I N E S S SECTOR
C O M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES Of CHAN G E _____
1977*100

_ IN IT IA L QUARTER
_

TERMINAL

QUARTER
3-81
4 - fil
1-82
2-82

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
147.6
151*3

ISLi*
8 .6

6 .8

8.2

7.1

7 .5

7.1

7.2

6 .2

5 .9

4 .4

7 t?

3-82
A-A2

.4=81

6 .5

153*8
156.6
158*3
159.9

1-83

6 .6

6 .6

5 .7

5 .3

4 .3

4 .1

2-83

6 .0

5.9

5.0

4 .6

3 .7

3 .3

2*5

3-83

5 .4

5.3

4 .4

4 .0

3*1

2 .7

2 .0

4-83

5 .4

5.3

4 .2

3*6

3 .3

3 .1

3 .4

5 .3

1-84

5 .4

5.3

4 .7

4 .4

3*9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .2

5 .5

5.7

2-84

5.2

5.1

4 .5

4 .2

3 .8

3 .7

3*6

3*9

4 .6

4 .3

3 .8
3 .8

4*2

160.9
161.5

1.5

163.6
165.9
2 .9

167.1

3-84

5 .2

5.0

4 .5

4 .3

3 .9

3 .8

3*8

4*0

4*6

4 .4

4-84

5.1

4 .9

4 .5

4 .2

3*9

3 .8

3*8

4 .0

4 .5

4 .3

1-85

5 .0

4 .9

4 .4

4 .2

3*9

3 .8

3*8

4 .0

4 .4

4 .2

3 .9

4 .2

3 .9

4 .0

2-85

5 .0

4*0

4 .0

4 .0

4*1

4*5

4 .4

4 .1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .6

5 .2

4 .9

4 .5

4 .3

169*0
3*8

170*6
172*3
174.5

3-85

5.0

4*9

4 .5

4*3

4*0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .2

4 .5

4 .4

4 .2

4 .4

4 .4

4#6

4 .8

4 .4

4-85

4 .9

4 .8

4 .4

4*3

4*0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .1

4 .4

4 .3

4 .1

4 .3

4 .2

4 .3

4 .4

4 .1

3 .7

176.4

1-86

4 .8

4 .7

4 .3

4 .1

3 .9

3 .9

3 .9

4 .0

4 .2

4.1

3 .9

4 .0

3 .9

4 .0

3 .9

3.5

3 .1

2 .5

2-86

4 .7

4 .6

4*2

4*1

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .9

4 .1

4 .0

3 .8

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

3 .7

3 .4

3 .0

2 .7

2 .9

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

178.0
179.1
180.4

I N IT IA L QUARTER

OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, BU SIN ESS SECTOR
_________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
1977*100

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERNINAL
QUARTER
3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
9 9 .9

4-81

- 5 .4

1-82

-2 .9

-0*4

2-82

- 1 .4

0 .6

9 9 .8
100.2

1.6

100.3

3-82

- 1 .0

0.5

1*0

0 .4

4-82

- 0 .2

1*1

1 .6

1 .6

1-83

0 .4

1.6

2 .1

2 .3

3 .2

2-83

1*2

2 .4

3 .0

3 .3

4 .3

5 .0

6 .4

3-83

0 .8

1.8

2 .1

2 .2

2 .7

2»6

2 .2

-1 .9

4-83

1 .1

1.9

2 .3

2 .4

2 .8

2 .8

2 .5

0 .6

3 .1

1-84

1 .4

2*2

2 .5

2 .7

3 .0

3 .1

2 .9

1.8

3 .7

4 .3

2-84

1 .5

2.2

2 .5

2 .7

3 .0

3 .0

2 .9

2 .0

3 .4

3 .5

2 .7

2.0

2 .2

2 .3

2 .6

2 .5

2 .3

1 .5

2 .4

2 .2

1.1

- 0 .4

101.9

3 .6

103.5
103.0
103.8
104.9
105.6
105.5

4-84

1.3

1.8

2*0

2 .1

2 .3

2 .2

2 .0

1.3

1 .9

1.6

0 .8

- 0 .2

0 .0

1-85

W

1.8

1 .9

2 .0

2 .1

2 .0

1.8

1.2

1 .7

1.5

0 .8

0 .1

0 .4

0 .8

2-85

*•3

1.8

2 .0

2 .0

2 .2

2 .1

1 .9

1 .4

1 .9

1.7

1.1

o
•
C
D

3-84

101.0

2 .8

1 .1

1 .7

105.5
105.7
106.4

2 .7

3-85

1*4

1.9

2*1

2*1

2 .3

2 .2

2 .1

1«6

2 .1

1.9

1.5

1 .3

1 .7

2 .3

3 .1

3 .4

4-85

1*2

1*6

1 .7

1 .7

1.8

1.8

1 .6

l.i

1 .5

1.2

0 .8

0 .5

0 .7

0 .9

0 .9

0 .0

- 3 .3

1-86

1.3

1.7

1.8

1 .8

1 .9

1.9

1 .7

1.3

1 .6

1.5

1.1

0 .9

1 .1

1 .4

1.5

1.1

0 .0

3 .4
1.5

-0*4

4-85

1-86

2-86

107.3

1.2

1.6

1.7

1 .7

1.8

1 .7

1 .6

1.2

1 .5

1.3

1.0

0 .8

0 .9

1.1

1.1

0.8

-0 .1

3-81

4-81

1—
82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85




106.4
107.3
107.2

IN IT IA L QUARTER

frggfrAft6tT T ¥ "Efö eftA L fté ¿É *V F fcA*»C
AUGUST 27 . 1986

10

¿t.

LO UU

P R O D U C T IV IT Y ,

C O M P E N S A T IO N ,

AND

LABO R

C O STS
RATI O SC ALE

R A T I O S C A LE

1977- 100

1977- 100

SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO

souRCEt u . s .
PE RC E NT A GE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE FOR PE RI OD S
LA TES T DATA PLOTT ED.

department

of

lam a

FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF S T .

LO UI S

IN DICA TED.

2ND QUARTER
PREPARED I Y

UNIT LA0OR COSTS, BU SIN ESS SECTOR
TERMINAL
QUARTER

1977*100

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
147.8

4-81

12.5

1-82

11.5

10.4

2-82

9 .4

7 .9

151.5
153.5

5 .4

3-82

8 .9

7 .6

6 .3

7 .2

4—
112

7 .3

6 .1

4 .7

4 .3

1 .5

1-83

6 .1

4 .8

3 .5

2 .9

0 .8

0 .0

156.2
156.8
156.8
155.5

2-83

4 .7

3 .4

2 .1

1 .3

- 0 .6

- 1 .7

- 3 .3

3-83

4 .5

3 .4

2 .3

1 .7

0 .4

0 .0

0 .0

3 .4

4-83

4 .3

3 .3

2 .3

1 .8

0 .8

0 .6

0 .8

2 .8

2 .3

156.8
1 57 .7

1-84

4 .0

3.1

2 .2

1 .7

0 .9

0 .7

0 .9

2 .3

1.8

i.3

2-84

3 .6

2.8

2 .0

1 .6

0 .8

0 .6

0 .8

1.8

1.3

0.8

0 .3

158.2

3-84

3 .7

3 .0

2 .3

1 .9

1.3

i.2

1.4

2 .4

2 .2

2.1

2 .5

4 .9
4 .3

3 .8

158.3
160.2

4-84

3 .7

3 .0

2 .4

2 .1

1.5

1 .6

1.8

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

3 .0

1-85

3 .7

3.1

2 .5 - 2 .2

1 .7

1 .8

2 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2.7

3.1

4 .1

3 .7

3 .5

2-85

3 .6

3.0

_2.5

2 .2

1.8

1.8

2 .0

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .9

3 .6

3 .2

2 .9

2 .2

3 .1

2*6

2 .2

1 .6

1.0

161.7
163.1
164.0

3-85

3 .5

2 .9

2 .4

2 .1

1.7

1 .7

1 .9

2 .5

2 .4

2 .4

2 .6

4-85

3 .7

3.1

2 .7

2 .5

2 .1

2 .2

2 .4

3 .0

2 .9

3.0

3.2

3 .8

3 .5

3 .5

3 .4

4 .1

7 .2

1-86

3 .4

2 .9

2 .5

2 .3

1.9

2 .0

2 .1

2 .6

2 .6

2 .6

2 .7

3 .1

2 .8

2 .6

2 .4

2 .4

3 .2

-0 .7

2 .2

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .8

3 .1

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .6

3 .1

1.1

2 .9

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3 .4

2.9

2 .5

2 .3

2 .0

2 .0

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82




164.4
167.3
167.0
168.2

IN IT IA L QUARTER

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L RE S E R V E BANK OF ST. L OUIS
AU G U S T 27, 1 9 8 6

11

CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS
TERMINAL
QUARTER

61U.1M* Of

- W T U W r ÄW*TSLR
*-81

1-82

2-02

3-02

4-02

1-83

2-93L- h í i

1-84

2-84

1-05

4-84

2-85

3-85

4-65

1-86

2-86

DOLLARS
AètküAL AÀTËS

M
«
0
1

-0 .2

3*112.6

2-82

2 .9

6 .2

3-82

2 .6

* .3

2 .5

C
O
1

3 .1

4 .3

3 .4

4 .2

1-83

3 .9

4 .9

4 .5

5 .5

6 .0

2-83

5.3

6 .5

6 .6

0 .0

9 .9

13.0

3-83

5.9

7 .0

7 .1

0 .3

9 .7

11.2

9 .4

4-83

6 .7

7 .7

0.0

9 .1

10.4

11.6

10.9

12.4

1-84

7 .6

0 .6

9 .0

10.1

11.3

12.4

12.2

13.6

14.9

2-84

7.6

0 .6

0 .9

9 .0

10.7

11.5

11.2

11.8

11.5

8 .2

3-84

7 .5

6 .3

0 .5

9 .3

10.1

10.6

10.1

10.3

9.T

7 .1

6 .1

4-84

7 .3

0 .0

0 .2

0 .0

9 .*

9 .8

9 .3

9 .2

8.5

6 .4

5 .5

4 .9

3*159.5
3*179.4
3*212.5
3*265.8
3*367.4
3*443.9
3*545.8
3*670.9
3*743.8
3*799.7
3*845.6

1-85

7 .2

7 .9

0.1

0 .6

9 .1

9 .4

6 .9

8 .6

0.1

6 .5

5.9

5 .9

6 .8

2-85

7 .1

7 .7

7 .9

0 .4

0 .0

9.0

6.5

8.4

7.7

6 .4

5.9

5 .8

6 .3

5 .0

3*909.3

3-85

7 .1

7 .7

7 .0

0 .2

0 .6

8.8

8 .3

8 .2

7 .6

6 .4

6 .1

6*1

6 .5

6 .3

3*965.0
6*8

4*030.5
4*087.7

7 .5

7 .6

0 .0

0 .4

8.5

8.1

7 .9

7.4

6 .3

6 .0

6 .0

6 .3

6 .1

6 .3

5 .8

7 .0

7 .5

7 .5

7 .9

8 .2

8.3

7 .9

7 .7

7.2

6 .3

6 .1

6 .0

6 .3

6*1

6 .2

6 .0

6 .2

2-86

6 .7

7 .2

7 .2

7 .5

7 .8

7.9

7 .4

7 .3

6.8

5.9

5 .6

5 .5

5 .6

5 .4

5*3

4 .8

4 .3

2 .6

3-86

6 .7

7 .1

7 .1

7 .4

7 .6

7.7

7 .3

7 .1

6 .7

5 .9

5 .6

5 .6

5.7

5 .5

5 .4

5 .1

4*8

4 .1

5 .7

4-81

1-02

2-02

3-02

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-04

1-05

2-85

3-65

4-85

1-86

2—
00

0
0
1
♦

7 .0

1-86

4*149.2
4*175.6
4 *2 3 4 .3P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
PRELIM INARY

CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN 1902 OOLLARS
___ ÇQ H P W W EP M W H W S S OF ÇHANÇE_____
. n n m
i

TERMINAL

" B l L t l d K S ÛF
OOLLARS

qv*«T£*

TWltfE

QUARTER
4-61

1-02

2—
02

3-02

4-02

1-03

2-03

3-83

4-83

1-04

2-84

3-04

4-04

1-85

2-05

3-05

*-05

1-06

mXTii

2-06
3*170*4

— S . 9 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________

3 * IT 9 .9
-2*7

—1*0

4-82

- 1 .9

- 0 .5

- 1 .3

3*154.5

—
3*2

3*159.3

0 .6

3*186.6

1-83

- 0 .8

0 .5

0 .3

2 .0

3 .5

2-83

0 .8

2 .2

2 .5

4 .4

6 .4

9 .3

3-83

1.5

2 .8

3 .2

4 .8

6 .3

7 .7

6 .0

4-83

2 .2

3 .5

3 .6

5 .3

6 .5

7.5

6 .7

1-84

3 .1

4 .2

4 .7

6 .0

7 .2

8.1

7 .7

4 .3

4 .7

5 .9

6 .8

7 .5

7 .0

7 .4

3*258.3
3*306.4
3*365.1

7 .3

3*444.7

9 .8

C
D
1
<
M
3-84

3 .2

4 .1

4 .5

5 .4

6 .2

6 .6

6.1

6.1

5 .7

3 .7

2 .3

4-84

3 .0

3*9

4 .2

5 .0

5 .6

5.9

5.3

5« 1

4 .6

2 .9

1.9

1 .5

1
o
s
V
Jl

3*487.1

3 .3

3 .0

3 .8

4 .1

4 .8

5 .3

5 .5

5 .0

4 .8

4 .3

3 .0

2 .3

2 .3

3 .1

7 .4

5 .0

3*507.4
3*520.4
3*547.0
3*567.6

2-85

3 .0

3 .7

3 .9

4 .6

5 .0

5.1

4 .6

4 .4

4 .0

2 .8

2 .3

2 .3

2 .7

2 .3

3-85

3.1

3 .7

3 .9

4 .5

4 .9

5 .0

4 .6

4 .4

4 .0

3 .1

2 .7

2 .7

3 .2

3 .2

4 .1

4-85

3 .0

3 .6

3 .8

4 .3

4 .7

4 .8

4 .3

4 .1

3 .8

2 .9

2 .6

2 .6

2 .9

2 .8

3 .1

2 .1

3*603.8
3*622.3
3*655.9

1-86

3 .0

3 .6

3 .8

4 .3

4 .6

4 .7

4 .3

4 .1

3.8

3 .0

2 .7

2 .8

3.1

3 .1

3 .3

2 .9

3 .6

2-86

2 .9

3 .4

3 .6

4 .1

4 .3

4 .4

4 .0

3 .8

3.4

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

2 .7

2 .6

2 .6

2 .1

2 .2

0 .6

3-86

2 .9

3 .4

3 .5

4 .0

4 .2

4.2

3.8

3 .7

3.3

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

2 .6

2 .5

2 .6

2 .2

2 .3

1.5

2 .4

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-65

1-86

2-86

3*661.4
3*683.3P

P- PRELIM INARY




PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BA*IK Of S T . LO UIS
OCTOBER 22* 1966

12

GROSS N A T I O N A L P RO D U C T
RATI O S C A L E
QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RAT I O S C A L E
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

2.8

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983
S O U R C E «

P E R C E N T A G E S

A R E

L A T E S T

P L O T T E D «

D A T A




A N N U A L

R A T E S

3 R D

OF

Q U A R T E R

C H A N G E

F O R

P E R I O O S

1984
U . S .

1985
D E P A R T M E N T

1986
OF

C O M M E R C E

I N D I C A T E D .

P R E L I M I N A R Y

PREPARED

13

BY

FED ERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

GENERAL

PRICE

INDEX*

R A T I O SCALE

1978

R A T I O SCALE

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS

1984

1985

1986

SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IM P L IC IT PR IC E OEFLATOR FOR CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
__________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

1982 * 100

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-81

1-82

5 .4

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86
98.2

5 .9

2-82

1-82

99.4

5 .0

100.8

3-82

5 .5

5 .4

5 .8

4-82

5 .1

4*8

4 .7

3 .6

1-83

4 .7

4 .4

4 .2

3 .4

101.7
3 .2

102.5
103.3

2-83

4 .4

4 .1

3 .9

3 .3

3 .2

3.2

3-83

4*3

4 .0

3 .8

3 .4

3 .3

3 .3

3.5

4-83

4*3

4 .1

4 .0

3 .6

3 .6

3.8

4 .1

4 .7

1-84

4*4

4 .2

4 .1

3 .8

3 .8

4 .0

4 .3

4 .7

4 .6

2-84

4 .2

4 .1

3 .9

3 .7

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .1

3 .8

3 .0

3-84

4*2

4 .0

3 .9

3 .1

3 .7

3 .7

3 .9

3 .9

3.7

3 .2

3 .4

4-84

4 .1

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3.8

3 .8

3.6

3 .3

3 .4

1-85

4*1

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .6

3 .1

3.8

3 .8

3.6

3 .4

3 .5

3 .5

3 .1

2-85

4*0

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

3 .6

3 .6

3 .7

3 .7

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3 .5

3 .5

3 .3
2 .5

104.2
105.4
106.6
107.4
108.3
109.2

3 .4

110.2
111.1
111.8

3-85

3 .9

3 .8

3 .1

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

3.6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .2

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

2 .9

4-85

3 .9

3 .8

3 .1

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

3.5

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3.1

3 .6

1-86

3 .8

3 .7

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3 .5

3.5

3 .5

3.3

3 .2

3 .2

3 .2

3 .1

3 .0

2 .9

3 .1

2 .5

2-86

3*7

3 .6

3 .5

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3 .2

3 .0

3 .0

3 .0

2 .9

2 .7

2*6

2 .6

2.1

1 .8

2 .9

2 .6

2 .7

3 .6

4-85

1-86

2-86

3 .7

3 .6

3 .5

3 .3

3 .3

3 .3

3.4

3 .3

3.2

3 .1

3 .1

3 .0

3 .0

2 .9

4-81

3-86

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1—
85

2 .8

112.8
113.5
114.0
11 5 .OP

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIM INARY




PREPARED I V FED ERA I RE S ER VE B A N K OF 51. L W JIS
OCTOBER 22% 1986

14

P ER S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
_____________COMPOUNDEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE______________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A tES

- JH I .U A L QVAftTEB
4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-63

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-66

2-66
1 ,9 9 6 .3

1-82

7*6

2-8 2

6*6

5 .6

2 ,0 2 3 .8
2 ,0 6 5 .6

3-82

7 .2

7 .1

6 .5

4-82

6*0

8 .1

9 .4

1-83

7 .5

7 .5

8 .2

8 .0

5 .7

2-83

6 .4

8 .6

9 .3

9 .6

9 .3

2 ,1 1 7 .0

10.3

2 ,1 4 6 .6
13.0

2 ,2 1 3 .0
2 ,2 6 2 .8

3-83

8 .5

8 .7

9 .3

9 .5

9 .3

11.1

9 .3

4-83

8 .7

6 .9

9 .4

9 .6

9 .4

10.6

9 .5

9 .7

1-84

8 .7

8 .6

9 .3

9 .4

9 .2

10.1

9.2

9 .1

8 .6

2-84

8 .7

8 .9

9 .3

9 .4

9 .2

9 .9

9 .2

9.1

8 .6

9 .1

3-84

8 .4

8.5

8 .8

8 .6

8.6

9.1

8 .3

8. 1

7 .5

7 .0

5 .0

7 .9

7 .4

7 .0

6 .0

7.0

7 .4

7.1

6 .4

7.1

7.2

2 ,3 1 5 .8
2 ,3 6 3 .8
2 ,4 1 6 .1
2 ,4 4 5 .6
2 ,4 8 7 .2

4-84

8 .3

8 .3

8 .6

8 .6

8 .4

8 .8

8.1

1-85

8 .2

6 .2

8.5

8 .5

8.3

8 .6

8 .0

2-85

8.1

8.2

8.4

8 .4

8.2

8.4

7 .9

7 .7

7.4

7.1

6 .6

7 .2

7.3

7 .3

3-85

8 .1

8 .2

8.4

8 .3

8 .2

8.4

7.9

7 .7

7 .5

7 .3

6 .9

7 .4

7 .6

7 .7

6 .2

4-85

8 .0

8.0

8.2

8 .2

8 .0

8.2

7 .8

7 .6

7.3

7.2

6 .8

7.2

7 .3

7 .3

7 .3

6 .4

8 .0

7 .9

7 .7

7 .9

7 .5

7.3

6 .8

6 .7

6 .6

6 .4

5 .5

4*6

7 .1

1-86

7 .8

7 .8

2-86

7 .7

7 .7

7.8

7 .7

7 .6

7 .7

7 .3

3-86

7 .8

7 .8

7 .9

7 .9

7 .7

7.9

7.5

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4—82

1-83

2-83

7.0

6 .8

6.5

2 ,5 3 0 .9
2 ,5 7 6 .0
2 ,6 2 7 .1
2 ,6 6 7 .9
2 ,6 9 7 .9
2 ,7 3 2 .0

3-83

6 .8

6 .6

6 .3

6 .5

6 .5

6 .3

6 .1

5 .4

4*9

5 .2

7.1

7 .0

6 .8

7 .0

7 .0

7 .0

6 .9

6 .6

6 .6

7 .7

10.2

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-65

1-66

2-86

2 ,7 9 9 .3 P

P- PRELIMINARY

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS
___________ COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________
IHV I M

TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-81

i-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

WÄRTER

l- ti

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86
2 ,0 3 1 .2

1-82

2 .2

2-82

2.1

1.9

3-82

2 .1

2 .0

4-82

2 .9

3 .1

3 .7

5 .3

1-83

2 .9

3.1

3 .5

4 .2

3 .0

2-83

3 .8

4.1

4 .6

5 .4

5 .5

8.0

3-83

4 .0

4 .3

4 .8

5 .4

5 .4

6 .7

4-83

4*2

4 .4

4 .9

5 .4

6 .3

5 .4

5 .5

1-84

4 .2

4 .4

4 .8

5 .2

5«2

5 .7

4 .9

4 .8

4 .1

2-84

4*3

4 .6

4 .9

5 .3

5#3

5.8

5.2

5.2

5 .0

6 .0

2 ,0 4 1 .0
2 ,0 5 1 .6

2.1

2*078.7
2*094.2
2*135.1
5 .3

2*163.0
2*191.9
2*213.8
2*246.3
2*253.3

3-84

4*1

4 .2

4 .5

4 .8

4 .7

5 .0

4 .4

4 .2

3 .8

3 .6

1.3

4-84

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

4 .6

4 .5

4 .8

4 .2

4 .0

3 .6

3.5

2 .3

3 .3

1-85

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

4 .5

4 .4

4 .6

4 .1

3 .9

3 .6

3 .5

2 .7

3.5

4.1

2*271.7
2*292.3

3 .7

2*311.9

2-85

3 .9

4 .1

4 .2

4 .4

4 .3

4 .5

3 .9

3 .6

3.5

2 .9

3 .5

3 .6

3 .5

3-85

4 .0

4 .2

4 .3

4 .5

4 .4

4 .6

4 .1

3 .9

3 .8

3 .4

3 .9

4 .1

4 .4

5 .3

4-85

3 .9

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

4 .2

4 .3

3.8

3 .6

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

1 .7

2*342.0

te
l
•
1*

2*351.7

3 .1

1-86

3 .9

4 .0

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

3 .8

3 .6

3 .5

3 .2

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

3 .5

2 .6

3 .6

2-86

4 .0

4 .1

4 .2

♦.4

4 .3

4 .4

4 .1

4 .0

3 .6

3 .8

3 .5

3 .9

4 .0

4 .0

4 .2

3 .6

4 .9

6 .2

3-86

4 .2

4 .3

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

4 .6

4 .3

4 .2

4 .1

4.1

3.9

4 .3

4 .4

4 .5

4 .8

4 .6

5 .6

6 .7

7 .2

4-81

1-82

2-82

3—
B2

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-63

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-65

3-65

4-85

1-66

2-86

2*372.7
2*408.4
2*4 50 .4 P

PRELIM INARY




Pk&kkt*

6V TE0EKAL
OCTOBER 22* 1966

15

BAHK ~OF~ S f . LO UIS

GROSS PRIVATE OOHESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT COLLARS
___________ COM P OUNOED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE ____________

BlUlfiNS ÖP

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-81

-1 3 .8

flO
1

-1 3 .5

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

JL- fti. 4-83

-3 0 .9

2-82

2-82

3-a> .J t Z * * - . I - « ?

l- M

2-85

3-85

4-85

OOLLARS
AfcfcÜAl kATÉS
1-86

2-86

459.5
467.8

7 .4

452.2

- 3 .2 -1 2 .7

4-82

-1 8 .7 - 1 4 .2 - 2 3 .3 - 3 2 .7

1-83

-1 2 .2

2-83

- 3 .0

3 .8

2 .9

8 .7

38 .1

59.5

3-83

1.8

8 .6

8 .8

14.9

3 7 .4

47.2

35.9

1
0
0
w

1-82

1-82

7 .3

14.2

15.4

2 2 .0

4 1 .6

49.8

45.1

54.9

- 6 .8 -1 1 .1 -1 0 .3

409.6
19.6

428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8

C
O
1

12.7

19.8

21.7

2 8 .6

4 6 .4

54.0

52.2

61.0

67.4

2-84

11.2

17.3

18.6

2 3 .8

37.1

40.9

36.6

36*8

28.6

- 1 .2

3-84

10.9

16 .3

17.3

2 1 .8

32.5

34*8

30.3

29.0

21.3

3 .3

8 .0

1 8.4

2 7 .0

28.2

23.6

21.2

14.0

0.3

1.1

4-84

9 .5

14*8

14*1

659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1

- 5 .4

650.6

1-85

8 .2

12.3

12.7

15.7

2 2 .8

23.2

18.8

16.2

9 .7

- 1 .3

- 1 .4

- 5 .8

- 6 .2

2-85

8 .3

12.2

12.6

15.2

2 1 .5

21.8

17.7

15.3

9 .8

0.9

1.5

- 0 .6

1.8

10.5

3-85

7 .3

10.8

11.0

13.3

18.8

18.7

14.9

12.5

7 .4

- 0 .2

0 .0

- 1 .9

- 0 .7

2 .1

- 5 .7

4-85

7 .4

1 0.6

10.8

12*8

17.8

17.6

14.1

11.9

7 .5

0.9

1.2

- 0 .1

1.3

3 .9

0 .7

7 .6

1-86

8 .3

11*4

11*7

13.7

18.4

18.3

15.1

13.2

9 .3

3 .6

4 .3

3 .7

5 .7

8 .9

8 .3

16.1

2-86

7 .1

9 .9

10.1

11.8

15.9

15.7

12.6

10.7

7 .0

1.9

2 .2

1 .4

2 .6

4 .5

3 .0

6 .1

5 .4 —11.3

2 .6

1.0

- 9 .3

- 7 .1

3-85

4—85

1-86

2-86

667.1

6 .3

8 .9

9 .0

10.5

14.2

13.9

11.0

9 .1

5 .7

0.9

1.2

0 .3

1 .2

2 .5

4-81

3-86

0 .9

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

657.4
669.5
25.3

708.3
687.3
674.7P

IN IT IA L Q ÜÁfem
P- PRELIM INARY

GROSS PRIVATE OOHESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 OOLLARS
__________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE___________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RÀTÉS

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-81

1-82
2-82

- 18.5

3-82

- 17.4

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86
464.2

- 35 .5

467.5

2 .9

448.6

- 6 .6 -1 5 .2

4-82

- 14.3

2-83

- 4 .0

3-83

0 .8

8 .5

9 .7

4-83

5 .6

13.3

15.1

1-84

10.6

18.3

20.6

2-84

9 .5

16.1

408.8

- 21.1 -1 5 .6 -2 3 .5 - 3 1 .0

1-83

427.1

- 9 .4

19.1

11.5

4 1 .9

68.9

17 .0

39.5

51.0

35.0

2 2 .3

4 1 .2

49.4

40.5

46.3

2 8 .0

4 4 .8

52.0

46*8

53.1

60.1

17.9

2 3 .6

36.2

39.9

33.4

32.9

26.7

0 .2

- 8 .0 - 1 1 .4
3 .9

4 .1

486.9
524.8
577.2
649.3
649.7
658.9

3—84

9 .2

15.0

16.5

2 1 .2

3 1 .4

33.5

27.4

25.6

19.3

3 .0

5.8

4-84

7 .9

13.0

14.1

17.9

2 6.1

27.1

21.2

18.7

12.6

0 .1

0 .1

- 5 .4

1-85

6 .6

11.2

12.0

15.1

2 1 .9

22.2

16.7

13.9

8.4

- 1 .7

- 2 .4

- 6 .2

2-85

7 .0

11.2

11.9

14.8

2 0 .8

21.0

16.0

13.6

8.9

0 .8

0 .9

- 0 .7

1.8

11.4

3-85

6 .0

9 .8

10.3

12.8

18.0

17.8

13.2

10.8

6.4

-0 .6

- 0 .7

- 2 .3

-1 .2

1 .8

- 7 .0

4-85

6 .0

9 .5

10.0

12.3

16.9

16.7

12.5

10.2

6.4

0 .3

0 .4

- 0 .7

0 .5

3 .1

-0 .7

6 .0

649.9
638.2

- 7 .0

655.6
643.8
653.2
684.0

1-86

6 .8

10.2

10.7

12.8

17.2

17.0

13.2

11.2

7 .8

2 .6

3 .0

2 .5

4 .2

7 .2

5 .8

12.9

2-86

5 .7

8 .8

9 .2

11.1

14.9

14.6

10.9

9 .0

5.8

1.0

1.1

0 .5

1.5

3 .3

1.4

4 .4

3 .6 - 1 0 .8

3-86

4 .9

7 .7

8 .0

9 .7

13.1

12.7

9 .2

7 .3

4 .3

0 .0

- 0 .1

- 0 .8

- 0 .1

1.1

— .9
0

0 .7

- 0 .9 -1 0 .1

- 9 .3

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-83

1-86

2-86

in it ia l

OUAftUft

P- PRELIMINARY




OCTOBER 22« 1986

16

20.2

4-85

664.7
648.6P

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A SES OF 600DS ANO SERVICES IN CUR
TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-81
1-82

1-82

2-8 2

3-82

4-82

1-83

2—
83_ 3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2-86
622.1

5 .9

2-82

IN IT IA L QUARTER

4 .1

625.7

2 .3

3-82

8.2

647.1

14.4

671.8

4-82

9 .5

10.8

15.3

16.2

1-83

7.1

7 .4

9.1

6 .6

2-83

6 .6

6 .8

7 .9

5 .8

1.0

4 .3

3-83

6« 1

6 .2

7.0

5 .2

1.8

3 .8

3 .3

4-83

5 .0

4 .9

5.3

3 .6

0 .6

1.6

0 .3

1-84

5 .6

5 .6

6 .0

4 .7

2 .5

3.8

3.6

3 .7

10.5

2-84

7.4

7 .6

8 .3

7.4

6 .0

7.7

8 .6

10.4

17.6

668.1

- 2 .2

675.2
680.7
676.1

- 2 .7

693.2
25.2

733.3
7 43.8

3-84

7 .3

7 .4

8 .0

7 .2

6 .0

7.4

8 .0

9 .3

13.6

15.1

5.9

4-84

7 .6

7 .7

8.3

7 .6

6 .6

7 .9

8.5

9 .6

12.9

13.7

8.4

11.0

1-85

7 .6

7 .7

8 .2

7 .6

6 .7

7.9

8.4

9 .3

11.8

12.1

8.1

9 .2

7 .5

2-85

7 .9

8 .0

8 .5

8 .0

7 .2

8.3

8.8

9 .6

11.8

12.0

9 .0

10.0

9 .5

11.6

3-85

8 .4

8 .6

9.1

8 .6

8 .0

9.1

9 .6

10.4

12.4

12.7

10.4

11.5

11.7

13.9

16.3

4-85

8 .7

8 .9

9 .4

9 .0

8 .4

9 .4

9 .9

10.7

12.5

12.8

10.8

11.9

12.1

13.7

14.7

13.1

1-86

7 .6

7.7

8.1

7 .6

7 .0

7.8

8.1

8 .6

9 .9

9 .9

7.8

8 .2

7 .6

7 .6

6 .3

1 .7

763.4
7 77.3
799.0
829.7
855.6
836.7

- 8 .5

860.8

2-86

7 .8

7 .9

8 .3

7.9

7 .3

8.1

8 .4

8 .9

10.1

10.1

8 .3

8.7

8.3

8 .5

7 .7

5 .0

1 .2

12.0

3-86

T .6

7 .7

8.1

7 .7

7 .2

7 .9

8.1

8 .5

9 .6

9 .5

7 .9

8.2

7 .8

7 .8

7 .1

4 .9

2 .3

8 .2

4 .5

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

870.4P

INITIAL QUARTER
PRELIMINARY

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF 6000S ANO SER V IC ES IN 1982 OOLLARS
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-81

1-82

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-8*

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86
634.6

- 0 .8

629.7

2-82

- 1 .9

- 3 .1

3-82

1.4

2 .5

8.4

4-82

3 .8

5 .4

9 .9

11.4

642.5
660.1
6 49.2

1-83

1.7

2 .3

4 .2

2 .1

- 6 .4

2-83

1.6

2 .0

3 .4

1.7

- 2 .8

1.1

3-83

1.6

2 .0

3 .0

1.7

- 1 .3

1.4

1.7

4-83

0 .5

0 .7

1.3

0 .0

- 2 .7

- 1 .4

- 2 .7

- 6 .8

1-84

1 .0

1.2

1.8

0 .8

- 1 .2

0 .2

- 0 .1

- 1 .0

5.1

2-84

2 .6

3 .0

3 .8

3.1

1 .8

3 .6

4 .2

5 .0

11.5

18.4

650.9
653.6
642*2
650.2
678*2
681*0

3-84

2 .5

2 .9

3 .5

3 .0

1 .8

3 .2

3 .7

4 .2

8.1

9 .7

1.7

4-84

2 .8

3 .2

3 .8

3 .3

2 .4

3 .7

4.1

4 .6

7 .7

8 .6

4 .0

6 .3

1-85

2 .8

3 .1

3 .7

3 .2

2 .3

3.5

3 .8

4 .2

6 .6

6 .9

3 .4

4 .2

2 .2

691.5
695.3

2-85

3.1

3 .4

4 .0

3 .6

2 .9

3 .9

4 .3

4 .7

6 .7

7 .1

4 .4

5.4

4 .9

7 .7

3-85

3 .8

4 .2

4 .7

4 .4

3 .8

4 .9

5 .3

5 .8

7 .7

8.2

6 .3

7 .5

7 .8

10.8

13.9

708.3

4-85

4 .2

4 .5

5 .1

4 .8

4 .3

5 .4

5.8

6 .3

8 .0

8 .5

6 .9

8 .0

8 .4

10.5

11.9

1-86

3 .1

3 .4

3 .8

3 .5

2 .9

3 .8

4 .0

4 .2

5 .6

5 .6

3 .9

4 .3

3 .9

4 .3

3 .2

2-86

3 .5

3 .8

4 .2

3 .9

3 .4

4 .2

4 .5

4 .7

6 .0

6 .1

4 .6

5 .0

4 .8

5 .4

4 .8

1.9

- 1 .9

9 .7

3-86

3 .5

3 .7

4 .2

3 .9

3 .4

4 .2

4 .4

4 .6

5 .7

5 .8

4 .5

4 .9

4 .7

5 .1

4 .5

2 .3

- 0 .1

6 .6

3 .6

4-81

1-82

2-8 2

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-8S

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

731.8
1 0 .0

749 .4

- 1 .8 - 1 2 .3

725.2

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PR ELIM IN A R *




. . .

OCTOBER 22« 1986

17

742.2
74 8 .8P

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURR E N T OOLLARS
C O H POUNOSO ANNUAL RATES OF C H ANCE ________
TERM INAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-8 i

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

1-94

1-82

5.1
5 .6

6 .6

6 .7

4-82

6 .0

6 .8

6 .9

5 .8

6 .3

6.2

6 .0

6 .3

6 .8

6 .9

6 .9

6 .8

6 .5

7 .0

7.1

7 .2

7 .3

8*5

7 .5

8 .1

8 .3

8 .7

9 .1

10.5

11.4

1-86

2-86

14.6
14.4

4-85

8.2

4-83

3-85

8.7

3-83

2-85

4 .6

2-83

1-85

7 .1

1-83

4-84

6*^

3-82

3-84

3 .7

2-82

2-84

BtLLttifc* OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL JUTES

14.1

2*207.2
2*241.8
2*278.6
2*318.1
2*345.7
2*395.4
2*443.2
2*527.9

1-84

8 .2

8 .8

9 .1

9 .6

10.0

11*4

12.3

2-84

7 .9

8 .4

8 .6

8 .9

9 .2

10*1

10.5

11.2

9.6

5.2

3-84

7 .9

8 .3

8 .5

8 .7

9 .0

9.7

9.8

10.3

8.8

6 .3

7 .4

4-84

7 .7

8 .0

8 .2

8*4

8 .5

9 .0

9.1

9 .3

8 .0

6 .0

6 .4

5.4

2*612.7
2*646.3
2*693.8
2*729.6

1-85

7 .4

7 .7

7 .8

7*9

8 .0

8.4

8.3

8.3

7.1

5.5

5 .5

4 .6

3 .8

2-85

7 .8

8 .1

8 .2

8*4

8 .5

8 .9

8*9

9 .0

8.1

7 .0

7 .4

7 .4

8 .4

13.2

3-85

7 .1

7 .4

7 .5

7 .5

7 .6

7 .8

7 .7

7 .7

6 .7

5.5

5 .6

5 .1

5 .0

5 .6

4-85

7 .1

7 .4

7 .4

7 .5

7 .5

7 .8

7 .7

7 .6

6.8

5.8

5 .9

5 .6

5 .6

6 .2

2 .8

7 .3

1-86

7 .2

7 .4

7 .5

7 .5

7 .5

7 .8

7.7

7 .6

6.9

6 .0

6 .1

5 .9

6 .0

6 .5

4 .4

7 .4

7 .5

2-86

7 .1

7 .3

7 .4

7 .4

7 .4

7.6

7.5

7 .5

6.8

6 .0

6 .1

5 .9

6 .0

6 .4

4 .8

7 .0

6 .8

6 .0

3-86

6 .8

6 .9

7 .0

7 .0

7 .0

7.1

7 .0

6 .9

6.2

5.4

5.5

5 .2

5 .2

5 .4

3 .9

5 .3

4 .7

3 .3

0 .6

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

2*755.4
2*842.3
2*832.0

- 1 .4

2*882.2
2*935.1
2*978.5
2*983.0P

IN IT IA L ÚUAfcTÉR
P- PRELIM INARY

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 OOLLARS
______ CUMP^NOEg, AILHyAW «ATES OF CHANCE________

B IL L IO N S OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL feATES

W l l é K

QUARTER
4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86
2*245.7

1-82

- 1 .4

2-82

0 .6

2 .7

3-82

0 .6

1 .6

0 .4

2*260.9
2*263.4
2*276.1

4-82

1 .0

1.8

1.3

2 .3

1-83

1 .2

1 .9

1.6

2 .2

2*2

2-83

1.7

2 .3

2 .2

2 .8

3 .1

2*288.4
4 .0

2*311.1
2 *335.4

4 .3

3-83

2.1

2 .6

2 .6

3 .2

3 .5

4.1

4-83

3 .0

3 .7

3 .8

4 .5

5 .1

6.1

7.2

10.2

1-84

3 .7

4 .4

4 .6

5 .3

6 .0

6.9

7 .9

9 .8

9 .4

2-84

3 .6

4 .1

4 .3

4 .9

5 .3

6 .0

6 .5

7 .2

5.7

3-84

3 .6

4 .1

4 .2

4 .7

5 .1

5.6

5 .9

6 .3

5 .0

2.9

3.6

4-84

3 .4

3 .9

4 .0

4 .4

4 .7

5.0

5.2

5 .4

4 .2

2 .5

2 .7

2 *392.7
2*446.9
2*460.3

2 .2

2*481.9
1.8

2*493.1
2*495.7

1-85

3 .2

3 .6

3 .7

4 .0

4 .2

4 .4

4 .5

4 .5

3.4

2 .0

1 .9

1.1

0*4

2-85

3 .6

4 .0

4 .1

4 .4

4 .7

4 .9

5 .1

5 .2

4 .4

3.4

3 .7

3 .7

4 .7

9 .1

3-85

3 .1

3 .4

3.5

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

3.1

2.1

2 .1

1.7

1.7

2 .3

- 4 .0

4-85

3 .0

3 .3

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

3 .9

3.9

3 .8

3.0

2.2

2 .2

1.9

1 .9

2 .4

- 0 .8

2 .6

2*550.8
2*524.7
2*540.7
2*581.2

1-86

3 .2

3 .5

3 .6

3 .8

3 .9

4.1

4.1

4 .1

3.4

2.7

2 .8

2 .6

2 .8

3 .4

1.6

4 .5

6 .5

2-86

3 .5

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .2

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

3.8

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

4 .1

2 .9

5 .4

6 .8

7 .1

3-86

3 .1

3 .4

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

3.8

3 .8

3 .8

3.2

2 .6

2 .7

2 .6

2 .7

3 .1

1.9

3 .4

3 .7

2 .3

- 2 .2

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

2 *625.7
2*611.2P

P- PREL I M I N A R Y




^RE^ÁRÉfc A f7 e & É A A t ftTSEffVE SANK OF S I * LO UIS

OCTOBER 22* 1986

18

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES*
COWPOWOEO ARKUAl RATES Of CHANCE
TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-81
4-81

S lU t Ö f c S ÖF "
DOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

AkMiAL AAT£S
2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86
141.0

-9 .1

107.5

-44*6 -6 6 .2
- 1 .8

3-82

-2 5 .7 -3 0 .5

-0 .4

4-82

- 2 2 .9 -2 6 .0

- 3 .9

1-83

-1 6 .3 -17.7

107.0
107.3

1.1

104.3

- 5 .0 -1 0 .7

110.6

4*5

6 .2

2 6 .4

- 6 .9

14*0

18.3

24.7

4 7 .3

3-83

-1 .2

0 .0

19.8

24.7

31*4

4 9 .5

62*5

4-83

- 0 .3

0 .8

17.9

21.6

26.1

3 7.5

4 1 .4

28 .3

7 .0

1-84

0 .6

1 .7

16.7

19.6

23.0

31.2

3 2 .4

21.4

7 .8

8 .6

0.1

1*1

14.2

16.3

18.7

2 4 .4

24.1

14.4

3 .6

2 .0

- 2 .0

-1 .4

9 .6

11.2

12.5

16.3

14.7

5 .8

- 3 .7

«
0

2 .9

- 7 .2

1
r*

-3 2 .9 -42 .4

0
0
1
O
J

1-82
2-82

3-84

126.6

71*7

141.0

53.9

143.4
146.4
- 4 .3

144.8

- 7 .0 -14 .0 -22 .6

135.8
134.1

-4 .9

4-84

- 2 .3

- 1 .7

8.4

9 .5

10.4

13.4

11.6

3 .9

- 3 .9

- 6 .5 - 1 1 .0 -14.2

1-85

- 3 .8

- 3 .4

5.4

6 .1

6 .6

8.8

6 .7

- 0 .3

- 7 .2

- 9 .8 -1 3 .9 -1 6 .9 -1 3 .9 - 2 2 .1

2-85

- 3 .4

-3 .0

5*2

5 .8

6 .2

8.1

6 .2

0 .0

- 5 .9

- 7 .9 -1 0 .9 -1 2 .5

- 8 .8 - 1 0 .7

126.0
126.7

2 .2

133.4

3-85

- 2 .0

- 1 .5

6 .4

7 .0

7 .5

9 .4

7 .8

2 .4

-2 .7

-4 .0

- 6 .0

- 6 .3

- 1 .8

- 0 .7

12.1

2 2 .9

4-85

- 0 .8

- 0 .3

7.2

7 .9

8 .4

10.2

8.8

3 .9

- 0 .5

- 1 .4

- 2 .8

- 2 .5

2 .1

4 .0

14.4

21.1

1-86

- 1 .5

—
1.0

5.9

6 .4

6 .8

8.3

6 .9

2 .4

-1 .7

-2 .6

- 3 .9

- 3 .8

- 0 .3

0 .7

7 .3

9 .0

2 .7 -1 1 .5

2-86

-0 .9

- 0 .5

6 .1

6 .6

6 .9

8 .3

7 .0

2 .9

- 0 .8

- 1 .5

- 2 .6

- 2 .4

0 .9

1*9

7 .5

8 .9

4 .6

- 2 .0

8 .5

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

1-86

139.4

19.2

135.2
138.0

IN IT IA L QUARTER
♦ NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS

P EPAR ÍY ÍÉ6É*AL «JÉAVÉ B N OF ST. LOUIS
R
É!)
AK
O
CTOtER 22. l i l t

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly
presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for
1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of
Current Business♦ Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82
and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate
volumes.
These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy
printout. For further information and prices, write to the National
Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

INV ENTOR IES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S *
MANUFACTURING AND TRA
1 . 6 8

6 8

1 . 6 4

6 4

6 0

6 0

5 6

5 6

5 2

5 2

4 8

4 8

1 . 4 4

4 4

1 . 4 0

4 0

1 . 3 6

3 6

3 2

3 2

2 8

2 8

2 4

2 4
1 9 7 2

«RATIOS BASED O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA.
N
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.

1 9 7 3

1 9 7 4

1 91 7 5 4 1 9 7 6 5 1 91 79 78 6 1 9 7 8
9 8
1 9 8

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

LATEST DATA PLOTTED? AUGUST PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S

20

1 9 7 9


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102