Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1986
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National Economic Trends February 1986 Many recent analyses o f a prospective drop in oil prices to $18 to $20 per barrel display a lack o f perspective. Most noteworthy are the presumed uniqueness and extent o f the drop. A longer-run view shows that: (1 ) oil has been falling in relative value since 1981, and (2 ) while an $18 to $20 price would involve an acceleration in the pace o f decline, it would still be close to its 1974-78 level and substantially higher than it was before late 1973. The table below shows the average price paid by refiners since the second O PE C price shock in late 1978. The data have been adjusted to reflect the increase in the general level o f prices (the G N P deflator) from the year indicated to the fourth quarter o f 1985. O il prices adjusted for inflation have declined sharply over the past five years. Had oil prices simply kept pace with the general level o f prices since early 1981, the average cost o f oil would now be about $45.26. W ith a further decline to $18 to $20 per barrel, the price o f oil would not be appreciably different from its level from 1974 to 1978, after the first O PE C oil price shock. During 1974-78 the price varied between $18.87 and $20.09, averag ing $19.54, more than twice as high as the comparable price o f about $9 in mid-1973, before the first major O PEC price hike. Several factors have combined to depress the oil price: the early 1981 U .S . decontrol o f domestic oil prices, limited decontrol o f U .S . natural gas prices, increased international competition and renewed production by Iran and Iraq. Iran and Iraq, however, have not restored their pre-1979 production levels, so a decline to $18 to $20 does not exhaust the full potential for the price to fall. Recent declines in the oil price have made the appeal o f a tax on imported oil more attractive to some analysts; a $12 tax is frequently mentioned. Such a tax would raise the oil price substantially above the level that would otherwise occur and put it in the range that prevailed in 1982-83. The adverse effects o f such price increases on the general level o f prices and the nation’s capacity, by now, are w ell known. The Average Cost of Oil to Refiners (adjusted for changes In the GNP deflator to IY/1985) 1978 1979 1980 1981 $19.48/barrel 25.30 37.19 42.48 1982 1983 1984 1985* $36.02 31.58 29.95 27.05 *Does not include the December price, which is not yet available. views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. — John A . Tatom TOTAL C I V IL I A N EM PLO YM BfT* COffPQMWMP AtttMAL M T E S Of CHANCE TERMINAL MONTH 6-64 7-64 9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64 6-64 1-65 2 -« 3-65 4-65 5-85 6-65 -1 *3 8- « 4 —2*0 -2 *7 9 -6 * -0 *6 -0 *3 2 .2 10-64 0 .2 0*7 2*5 2,6_ 11-64 0 .9 1.4 2*9 3*2 3*6 12“ 64 1*3 1.6 3 .0 3 .2 3 .4 3 .2 1-65 1*2 1*6 2*6 2 .? 2*0 9-65 10-65 U - 6 5 12-85 105,222 105,415 105,657 105,971 106,246 106,315 0*6 106,567 2-65 1*4 1*6 _2_t 6 2 .7 2 .7 2 .3 1.9 3.1 3-65 It? 2.1 2 .6 2 .9 3 .0 2.8 2.7 3 .6 4 .2 4-65 1*5 1.6 2 .4 2*4 2 .3 2 .1 1.6 2.1 1 .6 *~ 6 * I.* 1.7 2 .2 2 .2 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 - 0 .1 0.8 6 **6 5 1.0 1*2 1*6 1.5 1.3 1.0 0 .7 0 .6 0 .0 - 1 .3 - 1 .5 - 3 .7 1*1 1.3 1 .7 1 .7 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 0 .6 -0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .4 3.1 7-65 7-65 8-85 105*466 7-64 . THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L NONTH 106,951 106,672 - 0 .9 106,939 106,601 106,871 107,210 6-65 1*2 1*5 1*9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 3 .5 3.9 9-65 1*5 1*7 2*0 2*0 1*9 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.6 3 .5 3.7 10-6? 1*6 i* e 2*1 2 .1 2 .0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.8 2 .0 3 .4 3 .6 3.4 3.3 1 .7 1.4 3.1 3.1 2 .9 2.5 107,519 3 .5 107,813 107,969 1.8 U -6 5 1*6 1*8 2*1 2.1 2 .0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 12-65 1*7 1*6 2*1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 2 .0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.2 2 .7 1-66 2*0 2.2 2*5 2.5 2 .5 2 .4 2.3 2 .5 2 .4 2.3 2.6 2 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 5 .6 6-64 7-64 6-64 9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64 1-85 2-65 3-85 4-65 5-85 6-65 7-85 8-65 9-85 ,1 08,206 8 .6 106,955 10-65 11-65 12-65 I N Ï T l AL NÛNÎH ♦SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTO« O f CHAUT O P P O S IT E PAGE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANtÉ ’ TÇIWIM ÀL--------------------------------------------------------------- I N I T I A L HOHTH----------------------------------------------------------------- THOUSANDS MONTH OF PERSONS 9 -8 4 'T O - 5 4 1 I- T 4 2-85“ T - ^ 5 6-85 7-S3 8-85 9-65 10—85 T I- 6 5 12-85 l- B ? 4-T5 ~T-8 5 7-64 ' ff=ïï4 ¿- « 4 7-84 8-64 9 4 ,6 1 5 3 .$ ' 3 .7 “ 3 .6 9 4 ,F V 3 9-84 4 .0 4 .0 4 .5 9 5 ,2 3 8 9 5 ,5 7 3 10—84 4 .Ô 4.1 4 .4 4 .3 11—84 4 ,0 4.1 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 12-84 3 .T ~ 3 .9 "3.B 3 .6 " 3 .3 9 5 ,8 6 2 9670V 2 Z. 7 9 6 ,4 1 9 1-65 3 ,9 3.8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .4 4 .2 2-65 3 .6 3 .6 "3:^ 3 .4 3 .? 37TT 3 .2 2 .2 3-65 '3 .7 “ 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3 .4 3 .3 3T5" 3 .1 4-85 3 .6 3.5 3 .5 3 .4 3 .3 3. 1 372 5-85 5 .6 3 .6 ' TT6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .4 6-85 3 .3 3 .3 3 .1 3 .0 2.'9 2 .9 7-65 3 .3 ~ ô-é5 3 .3 9-85 3 .3 " 10-85 ' 3 .3 ' 9 6 ,5 9 1 2 .9 " 9 7 ,1 2 0 2 .£ 3 .2 ■ 3 .5 2 .6 9 6 ,9 1 0 4 .0 '"3 .2 3 .8 9 7 ,42 1 2 .8 2 .3 2 .2 0 .6 9 7 ,4 7 1 3 .3 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .8 2 .5 2 .4 "T7B ‘ '3 .3 , 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 3T0 2 .8 ' 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .3 ' T . I 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 7 .7 r.7 m 3 .0 3 .1 3 .0 3 .3 3 .2 5 .3 3 .3 11-65 3 .3 3 .3 T73 IZ-8T> 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 1-86 3 .5 3.5 6-64 7 —84 “ 8-84 3 .1 ' " 2 .5 ' 371 2 .9 3.0 '2 .8 3 .4 97 »977 3 .4 372 3 .0 3 .5 " 3 .6 3. 1 3 .0 3 .1 3 .0 ' 3 .1 2 .9 3.0 2 .9 "'3 ."3 3 .4 374: 3. Z T .T 3. I 3 .1 3 .U 3. i 3. U 3 .0 z .y 'T . 3 3.TT- 3 .* 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .4 3 .4 3.5 3 .4 4 .0 “ 9-84 10-84 11-84 12—84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 IN IT IA L 3 .8 ' 6-65 7-65 9 8 ,2 1 7 4 .3 J.6 ‘ 9 8 ,5 5 9 3 . Or v y ,y u i " 3 .5 *. r 3. 3 4 .r 4 .4 4 .4 5 .2 7 .1 8-85 9-85 11-85 12-85 00 1 0 3 .4 ' 2 .9 ” 977707 2 .9 ' 9ST/067P ■VV,'6 35M m o n th P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R ESE R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS E E W U U K T 7 , l ^ Bfe-------------------------------- ----- 2 ' EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE M I L L I ONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEASONALLY M I L L I ON S ADJUSTED souRCEt OF u . s . departm en t SCALE PERSONS of la bo r B E G IM M IM JANUARY i m , TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA I NCORPORATE N E I PROCEDURES FOR E S T I MAT I NG 1« ASOR£5 Of I MW I©RAT I OH ANO EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 X . PtRCtW TAG ES ARE AJUWAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED» INDICATED. JANUARY PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RES£RVE B A M UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT Of ST. LO U IS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12. 0 II. I I .0 10. 10. 0 9. 9 .0 8. 8.0 7. 7 .0 6. 6.0 5. 5 .0 4. 4.0 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE. PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LATEST DATA PLOTTED« U .S . 1985 1986 DEPARTMENT Of LABOR LABOR FORCE JANUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER VE BANK OF ST. 3 LO U IS CONSUME* P R IO ; IN P € X H3* A L L W ftA W COHSUN€*$, S t A M N A U V CONPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N « IN IT IA L TERMINAL MONTH 6-64 7-84 7-64 9-64 10-84 11-64 12-64 8-84 2-65 1-85 A D JU ST ED * 1967*100 MONTH 3-65 4-65 5-85 6-85 8-65 7-65 9-65 10-65 11-65 12-65 3 1 1 .3 3 .9 3 1 2 .6 6-64 4 .5 5 .1 9-64 4 .5 4 .7 4 .3 10-64 4 .3 4 .4 4 .1 3 9 3 1 3 .7 3 1 4 .7 3 1 5 .3 11-64 3 .9 3 .9 3 .5 3 1 2 .3 12-64 3 .8 3 .7 3 .4 3 1 2 .7 3 .1 1-65 3 .6 3 .5 3*2 2 9 2 .6 2 .7 2 .3 2-65 3 .6 3 .6 3 .3 3 1 2 .9 3 .1 3 .1 3 1 6 .1 3 1 6 .7 3 1 7 .7 3*9 3 1 9 .2 3-65 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 5 3 .5 3 .8 4 .0 4 *8 5 .8 4-85 3 .9 3 .9 3 .7 3 6 3 .6 3 .8 4 .0 4 *6 5 *0 4*2 5-85 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 4*1 4 *2 3 *4 2 .7 6-85 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3 5 3 .4 3 .6 3 .6 3*9 3 *9 3*3 2 .8 3*0 7-65 3 .6 3 .6 3 .4 3 3 3 .3 3 .4 3 .4 3*6 3 .6 3*0 2 *6 2 *6 2 .3 6-65 3 .5 3 .5 3 .4 3 3 3 .2 3 *3 3 .3 3 .5 3 .4 3*0 2 .6 2 *6 2 .4 2 .6 3 2 0 .3 3 2 1 .0 3 2 1 .8 322 . 4 3 2 3 .1 9-65 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .2 3*3 3 .3 2*6 2 *6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 5 .3 10-65 3 .5 3 .5 3 .4 3 3 3 .2 3 .3 3 .3 3*5 3 .4 3*1 2 *9 2 *9 2 .9 3 .1 3 .4 4 .5 11-65 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .7 3*8 3 .8 3 .5 3*4 3 .6 3 .7 4 .1 4 .5 5*7 3 2 3 .7 3 2 4 .9 6 .9 326 . 7 12—65 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 * 6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3*9 3 .9 3 .7 3*6 3 .7 3 .6 4 .1 4 .5 5*3 5 .7 4 .5 1-66 3 .8 3 .6 3 .7 3 6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 3*9 3 .9 3 .7 3*6 3 .6 3 .9 4 .1 4 .4 5*0 5 .1 4 .3 “ 6-84 7-64 8-64 9-84 10-64 11-64 12-64 1-65 2-85 3-85 4-65 5-85 6-65 7-65 6-65 9-65 10-65 11-65 3 2 7 .9 4 .1 329 . 0 12-65 ___________________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L NOHTH • R E V IS ED FROM 1981 PftEPAREO BY FED ERA L R ES E R V E BANK O f S T . L O U IS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------# t B M U A V ^ 6 . 14*6-----------------------------------------------------------------____________________________________________________ PROOUCER P R IC E IN O E X , FIN 1S H EO &OOOS - SEASON ALLY A O JU ST EO *_____________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED AMfUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL I N I T I A L MONTH 1967 * 100 MONTH________________________________________________ ________ _____________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________ 6—84 7 —6A 9-84 10-64 11—84 12-84 1-05 2-85 3-«5 4-85 5-85 6-85 7^85 &-85 9-85 10-65 11-65 12-85 7-B4 275 8-64---- 572 --------(5.1 10-84 - 0 .1 2 9 1 .6 -2 .0 291 .3 - 1 . 5 ------ 575--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 29173“ - 1 .0 - 0 .4 - 0 .8 2 9 1 .1 11-64 076 571 07e F75 373 12-64 573 575 575 ITT 571 575 2 91 .4 1-6 5 674 571 075 576 l7 l 070 2 92.1 - O .e 2 9 1 .9 2-65 074 o7I 074 075 57a 3 -«5 o 74 571 574 075 577 4 -6 5 079 078 l7 l 173 177 T73 5-85 T7I 175 T73 T75 F7e i7 6 6 -6 4 571 577 575 T71 T75 T75 T75 T71 575 575 7 -6 5 F75 575 T7I T75 175 T75 T73 T77 275 574 T71 6 -6 5 576 573 577 578 575 577 577 575 T75 T75 0*2 -5 .2 -0 .2 575 571 m5 575 -0 .1 575 574 272 373 673 2 9 3 .5 274 375 476 279 2 9 4 .5 l7 4 2 9 1 .9 2 9 2 .0 9 -6 5 0 .1 -6 .1 571 57T 579 578 T7o l7 5 T75 175 T7o T75 174 175 578 57? F75 574 275 1T7I 11-85 173 173 T75 176 T7b F76 T77 575 575 274 T75 177 576 575 476 TT75 1—86 T75 r r s ------m FT! T75 175 6—84 7-64 8-64 *(>ATA FOR P O l* ----- 571 T73 T74 - 5 .5 -5 *3 ^571 10-65 12-65 -0 .1 ^o74 -i.* -5 .7 -4 .4 571------ 574----- 575----- 575----- 574----- 575 ----- *75 ----- 575----- 471 ----- 474 7715 T74 5 .3 12-64 1-B5 9-84 10-64 11-84 2-65 >-85 4-85 5-65 T 7i------ T74 6-65 7-65 574 474 6-65 9-65 10-65 5 4 6 .7 57754*73 h >*6 11-65 -7 .6 5 *5 7 T " 12-85 1981) PREPA REO BY F E O 0 U L R E S E R V E FEM U A A Y I I , I9 W 4 -T 7 6 2 9 3 .A 5 9 4 .6 i73 T7T 579 5 * 4 .3 hS74 874 575 175------- ITS------ T75 575 -T 7 I -7 7 1 -----------------------------------------------------------------5 4 1 .6 F73 I N I T I A L MONTH NONTHS AGd R E V IS E D TO R E F L E C T LA TE RE P O R T IN S ( R E V IS E D FR0H -5 .4 = 5 7 * 2*375“ BANK OF S T . ~ L O U IS RATI O PRICES SCALE 1967-100 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALE 1967-100 c o « * « « * r f t ic t i eeeiM M iM ja k s a a y i w $ i s f m a l l s r o a ii co * s » *tJts < c?i-v> . CP 1-0 DATA ee«IMMIM6 I M J IHCOftPOftATt A KGJfT AL CQVIVAJltMCt M tA S M t FO* HOMCOVMtASH 1P COSTS. p c ìc o h a o c s m i AMmAL * a t i s of ch a j*€ foa p u io o s LATEST DATA PL0TTW » in ch oated. JAN9AAY ■ « V I M J FAC* I M I t W A H tP §y p u d u u l i i U J t v e m w ratio PRODUCER scale r tic u r iA c t s a m a* k * a l L ATtST »ATA PLO T T W , * A E V IS « F t CM i m i . aatcs of chaw « fm PR IC ES* r u im « it . ratio l« h s scale i m o ic a t e d . JAIWAJIY MLLPAJttO I t 5 PtM JLAL A lS t A V t R A J * Of ST. 10« IS PROOUCER P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D CO NSIDER FOODS - SEASON ALLY A D JU ST ED * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF ¿HAN&# IN IT IA L TERMINAL MONTH 6—84 7-«4 8-64 9-64 10-84 11-84 12-84 1-85 2-85 rfQNTH 3-85 4-6 5 — 3^85 6^65 7^55 l* 6 f « 1 6 6 8 ^6 ? 9-65 10-65 11-65 12-85 274.6 18.2 8-64 t .5~ -2.2 2 7 4 .3 _« 4 4 : r _ - i.7 10-64 i.d - 1 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .3 11-64 2 .5 - l.l - 67 * - 6 .4 0 .4 12-64 2 .7 - 6 .1 0 .4 1 .6 2 .2 1-65 1 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 0 .0 - 0 .2 - 4 .3 2-65 1 .4 - 6 .7 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .1 - 0 .3 - 2 .4 - 0 .4 3-65 0 .7 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 - 1 .2 - 1 .1 - 1 .5 - 3 .3 - 2 .8 - 5 .1 4-65 - O .i - 1 .9 - 1 .9 - 2 .0 - 2 .1 - 2 .6 —4 .2 - 4 .2 - 6 .0 - 6 .8 5-65 - 1 .6 - 2 .7 - 2 .8 - 2 .9 - 3 .2 - 3 .8 - 5 .2 —5 .5 - 7 .1 - 6 .1 - * .3 6-65 - 1 .0 - 2 .5 - 2 .6 - 2 .7 - 2 .9 - 3 .4 —* . 5 - 4 .6 —5 . 6 - 5 .7 —5 .2 7-65 0 .0 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .6 - 2 .4 - 2 .0 - 2 .4 - 1 .6 5 .2 ^ n .i 8-65 —0 . 6 - 1 .9 - 1 .9 - 2 .0 - 2 .1 - 2 .3 - 3 .1 - 2 .9 - 3 .1 - 3 .0 - 2 .0 0 .6 1 .3 - ft.l 9-65 - 1 .4 - 2 .6 - 2 .7 - 2 .* - 2 .9 - 3 .2 —4 .0 - 4 .0 - 4 .5 —4^.4 - 3 .9 - 2 .4 - 2 .9 —9 .6 10-65 0 .1 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 - 0 .9 - 6 .9 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .2 - 6 .7 0 .4 2 .4 “ l . l 6 .6 5 2 “ 2474 11-65 0 .8 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 0 .0 0 .1 0 .0 - 0 .3 ^ r .i 0 .1 0 .8 2 .0 4 .0 5 .0 3 .4 7 5 T i.r 12. r" 12-4 5 1 .2 0 .3 0 .4 0 .6 6 .7 0 .7 0 .4 6 .9 1 .0 1 .7 2« 4 4 .7 “ 5 .7 4 .5 7 9 1 5 .0 1 0 .6 9. 1 1—66 0 .9 6 .6 0 .1 0 .2 0 .3 0 .3 0 .0 0 .4 0 .5 1 .1 2 .0 3 .5 ~ 4 .1 2 .9 5 3 9 .8 5 .3 2 .0 - 4 .7 6-64 7-64 8-64 9-64 10-64 11-64 L2-64 1-85 2-85 3-65 4—65 5-85 6-65 7-65 8-65 9-65 10-65 11-85 12-85 li- 6 * 12-65 ♦DATA FO* W L M 2 7 4 .0 =T7T" 2 7 3 .7 MONTHS AGO R E V IS E D 2 7 3 .1 4 .0 "27477 2 7 3 .7 273 . 6 2 T ? :4 2 7 0 .8 0. 1 2 6 6 .6 - 0 .9 2 6 5 .4 2 7 0 ;9 26970 -11 6 2 6 6 .4 2 7 1 .3 2 7 3 .9 7 7 5 .9 " 274^8 I N I T I A L MONTH TO R E F L E C T LATE RE KfcRTING( R E V IS E D FROM 1961) PRODUCER P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D GOODS, EXCLUD ING FOODS - SEA SO N A LLY A D JU ST ED * COMPOUNDED AJMUAL RATES OF CHANGE I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL 6-64 7-64 8-84 9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64 1-65 2-85 3-65 4-65 5-65 6-65 7-85 6-65 *-6 * 10-65 2 9 5 .2 7-64 - 2 .0 6-64 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 9-64 - 1 .2 —0 .8 0 .4 10-64 - 1 .0 - 0 .7 0 .0 - 0 .4 11-64 - 0 .1 0 .4 1 .2 1 .6 3 .7 L2-84 - 0 .1 0 .3 0 .9 1 .1 1 .8 0 .0 1-65 0 .0 0 .3 0 .8 0 .9 1 .4 0 .2 0 .4 2-65 - 0 .1 0 .2 0 .6 0 .7 0 .9 0 .0 0 .0 - 0 .4 3-65 0 .3 0 .6 0 .9 1 .0 1 .3 0 .7 1 .0 1 .2 2 .9 4-65 1 .3 1 .7 2 .1 2 .4 2 .9 2 .7 3 .4 4 .4 6 .9 11.1 2 9 6 .9 3 .5 3 .4 4 .1 5 .1 6 .9 9 .0 3 0 0 .6 2 * 4 .7 294 . 8 2 9 5 .6 2 9 5 .6 2 9 5 .7 2 9 5 .6 2 * 6 .3 1 .8 2 .2 2 .7 6-65 1 *4 1 .7 2 .0 2 .2 2 .6 2 .4 2 .8 3 .3 4 .2 4 .7 1 .6 - 3 .5 7-65 1 .3 1 .6 1 .9 2 .0 2 .3 2 .1 2 .4 2 .8 3 .4 3 .6 1 .2 - 1 .6 2 .1 2 .5 2 .4 0 .4 - 1 .7 - 0 .8 - 2 .0 1 .1 1 .3 1 .0 - 0 .9 -¿.¿1 - 2 .5 - 3 .9 - 5 .9 1 .6 5-65 3 .0 294. 7 2 * 9 .7 0 .4 2 * * .8 6-65 1 .0 1 .3 1 .6 1 .7 1 .9 1 .7 1 .9 9-65 0 .6 0 .8 1 .0 1 .0 l.l 0 .9 1 .0 10-65 1 ,1 1 .3 1 .6 1 .7 1 .8 1 .7 1 .8 2 .3 2 .2 0 .8 - 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 2 .4 2 .9 2 .9 1 .8 0 .9 1 .9 2 .2 177 2 * * ;3 29778 366". 1 '* .7 7 .9 11-65 1 .5 1 .7 2 .0 2 .1 2 .3 12-65 1 .7 2 .0 2 .2 2"75 2 .5 2 .4 2 .6 3 .2 3 .2 2 .3 1 .6 2 .5 2 .9 4 .2 7 .7 “ 6 .8 5 .7 1-66 1 .2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .6 1 .8 1 .6 1 .7 2 .1 2 .0 1 .0 0 .3 0 .9 0 .9 1 .5 “ 3 .5 1 .5 —1 .6 —6 .4 6-64 7-64 6-64 2-65 >-65 4-65 5-85 6-65 7-65 9-65 10-65 11-85 00 1 <N 3 0 2 .0 2 .2 9-64 10-64 11-64 12-64 1-65 , 8-65 3 0 3 .4 301 .2 ____________________________________________ ___________________________ _________ I N I T I A L MONTH •OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V IS E D TO R E F L E C T LA TE R E P O R T IN G <fc tV tS E D FROM 1961) P REPA RED 6Y F ED ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS FE & W M R Y U , 1 W -------------------------- ------ — 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE 1967-100 135 SEASONALLY SCALE 1967-100 135 ADJUSTED 130 130 + i.s z ^ ^ 125 •12«.7 r-/V J 125 120 120 u I 15 1 15 +0. 41 • »»/â.Jzn I 10 110 9xJ / -- 105 -16 ' 7A r/ j -/ j.â r y 9T ' 105 U 100 100 95 90 * * * * * * * t Ì * * » t t t < * ♦ ♦ t. . . 1978 1979 1980 * 1981 * * * % t % i \ ♦ ♦ ♦ 1982 PERCENTAGES ARE AMMOAL RATES Of CHAMCE FOR P E R I L S LATEST OATA PL O T T E D 1983 95 ♦ 1984 1985 90 1986 I MO I CATE©. JAIW ARY PRCLIMIMARY Of ST. PREPAREO 6T FEDERAL RESER VE in d u s t r ia l LO O IS p r o o u c t io n CQHPQUfg)ED AftfUAL R ATES ÛF CHANGE IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L 1977 « 1QÛ HQHTH HONTH a*-aa . 7-A4 ft-A4 <»-AA 1Q-A4 1 l —A4 12-AA___1-85___ 2-A5___ 3-fl5___________ 5 -a 5___6-B5__ 7-S5___ft-63___9-fl5 n .5 -1 .9 1 *A -1 .6 -3 .ft t 1*-AA 2 .2 n .5 -fi .3 7., 1 12-64 1 *A 0 .? -f| 3,«n - 1 .0 ) —A 5 1 -A 0 .7 n 3,,n 1 .0 3 .0 2-A5 1. 7 0 .7 o .3 7i 1 .0 2 .0 1 .0 3-65 1 .9 1 .0 n .7 1 .1 7 ,>(S 1* 5 2 .3 2 .0 2 .9 4-A1 1 -A 1 .0 n .7 1* 1 7 i.3 1 .4 2 .0 1 .6 2 .0 1 .0 5-65 1 .A 0 .9 n,.iS 7i»fi 1.1 1 .6 1 .2 1 .3 0 .5 7,.fi 1 .3 1 .6 1 .4 1 .5 1 .0 l.û 2 .0 Ì . 1 û. 8 û .ft 0 .2 0 .0 0 .0 - 1 .9 ?.3 2 .2 2 .4 2 .3 2 .7 3 .6 4 .4 1 1.2 - 1 .0 lQ-fl3 11-ÛS 12—Q5 _ Im&à* <5-A A 6 -A 5 1 .A 1 .0 n •fl 7-65 1 .4 0 .7 n .5 A- a «; ? *n 1 .5 i .4 Q-A5 1 .A 1 .3 i ,? 10-A5 1 .3 0. A 0 . íS 1 l- * 5 1 .A 1 .3 i .2 1 21 .3 122 .7 - 5 .7 1. 1 1 2 3 .4 i . 1 2 3 .3 1 2 3 .6 1 2 3 .7 1 2 4 .0 124.1 124. 1 0 .0 124 .3 124.1 1 -7 ? , ,4 i *5 2 ., ) 1 .7 2 .Û 1 .8 1 .9 1 .8 1 .9 2 .4 2 .6 4 .9 l . 0 .* 1.1 Û .9 0 .9 0 .6 0 .5 0 .6 0 .2 1 .0 - 3 .8 - 6 .5 1 .5 7,.0 1 .6 1 .9 1 .8 î.a 1 .7 1 .8 2 .1 2 .1 3 .2 0 .6 1 .4 1 0 .1 2*7 3*9 9*5 9 *0 2 .9 3*9 7 .6 6*4 8-65 9-85 10-85 1 .9 2 .2 U fl i .7 1 .9 2, 2 .2 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 3. 1 3 .2 4 .3 1-A6 2 .3 1 .9 i .fi 2. 1 2. 2 .3 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 .2 .8 3 .2 3 .3 4 .2 6—84 7-64 8- 64 *-«4 11-84 L2—64 1-85 2-85 3-85 4—65 5-85 6—65 -j i 10-84 CD 12—<15 125 .2 125. 1 1 2 4 .4 1 25 .4 1 2 6 .3 P 3*9 126* 7P 11—85 12—65 I N I T I AL HONTH P - PR6L I H I NARY PREPA RED b y FED E R A L R ESE R V E FEBRU A RY 14, 1*66 7 BANK OF ST . L O U IS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS T OT A L S INCOME AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJ USTED 3. OF SCALE DOLLARS 3.7 3 .6 3 .5 3.4 3 .3 3.2 3. I 3 .0 2.9 2. 8 2.7 2. 6 2 .5 2.4 2 .3 2. 2 2. I 2.0 1 .9 I .8 I .7 I .6 I. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTE-Dt U .S . 1985 1986 DEPARTMENT Of C O tm U C t INDICATED. JANUARY P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARE© IY F tP U A L RESEJtVE. IANK Of ST. 10*18 COMPOUNDED At#4UAL RATES OF CHANGE IN IT IA L TERMINAL MONTH 6-84 7-64 8-84 9-84 10-84 11-84 12-84 1-85 10.3 8-64 8 .9 7 .5 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 3 , 143. 1 9-64 8 .9 8 .2 8 .9 10-64 6 .8 5 .6 4 .7 0 .6 11-64 6 .7 5 .9 5 .3 3 .6 6 .6 12-64 7 .1 6 .5 6 .3 5 .4 7 .9 9 .2 1-65 6 .7 6 .1 5 .8 5 .0 6 .5 6 .4 3 .8 2-85 7 .3 6 .8 6 .7 6 .3 7 .8 8 .2 7 .7 1 1 .7 6 .5 7 .9 6 .9 3-65 3 ,1 2 4 .1 7-64 3-65 2-85 ö l L LIQ H S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES MONTH 3 , 1 67 .2 3 ,1 8 4 .0 6 .5 6 .4 5 .9 7 .0 7 .2 3 ,2 0 7 .4 3 ,2 1 7 .3 3 ,2 4 7 .2 3 ,2 5 8 .2 4. 1 3 ,2 8 8 . 6 4-65 7 .4 7 .1 7 .0 6 .8 7 .8 8 .1 7 .8 9 .2 7 .9 1 1 .9 5-65 6 .1 5 .7 5 .5 5. 1 5 .7 5 .6 4 .8 5 .1 3 .0 2 .4 - 6 .2 5 .3 4 .6 4 .8 3 .1 2 .8 - 1 .5 3 ,2 7 1 .2 3 ,2 8 0 .5 3 .5 6-65 5 .9 5 .5 5 .3 4 .9 5 .4 7-65 5 .7 5 .3 5 .1 4 .7 5 .2 5 .0 4 .5 4 .6 3 .2 3 .0 0 .2 3 .5 3 .5 8-85 5 .4 5 .1 4 .8 4 .5 4 .9 4 .7 4 .1 4 .2 3 .0 2 .8 0 .6 3 .0 2 .8 2 .0 9-65 5 .4 5 .1 4 .9 4 .8 4 .3 4 .3 3 .3 3 .2 1 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 5 .4 4 .9 4 .6 3 ,2 9 0 .0 3 ,2 9 5 .5 3 ,3 0 9 .9 3 ,3 3 0 .7 10-85 5 .6 5 .3 5 .1 4 .8 5 .2 5 .0 4 .6 4 .7 3 .9 3 .8 2 .6 4 .4 4 .7 5 .0 6 .6 7 .8 11-65 5 .6 5 .3 5 .1 4 .9 5 .2 5. 1 4 .7 4 .8 4 .1 4 .1 3 .0 4 .7 4 .9 5 .3 6 .3 6 .8 5 .9 12-65 6. 1 5 .8 5 .7 5 .5 5 .9 5 .8 5 .6 5 .7 5. 1 5 .2 4 .5 6. 1 6 .5 7. 1 8 .4 9 ,5 1 0 .3 1 4 .9 5 .2 5 .4 5 .7 6 .7 6 .4 6 .6 - 1 .0 5-85 6-85 7-65 11-85 12-85 1-86 6-84 7-64 8-64 9-84 10-64 ______________________________________ 11-64 12-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 ______________________________ I N I T I A L 4-85 WONTH 8-85 9-65 10-35 3 ,3 4 6 . 6 3 ,3 8 5 .5 ___________________________________________________________________ P- PRELIMINARY_______________________________________________________________________ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- — 8 PREPA RED BY F ED ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS — ---------------F i m m y - r r r T t t z ----------------------------------- RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS 1978 RATIO OF DOLLARS 1979 seasonally 1980 1981 BILLIONS adjusted 1982 1983 1984 OF 1985 SCALE DOLLARS 1986 • $. HPARTMEMT Of COWMeKCC PtJtC£MTA«S ARC AMM9AL RATES Of CHAHtt FW PU lM S IN»ICATt£. LA TEST DATA P L O T T U t H C m a , J A **A A Y AjDVAHCC C ST IH A T C PREPARE* I t FEftCJUL RESERVE IAMK Of ST. LMIS _______________________________________________________________________________________ R E T A IL S A L E S ______________________________________________________________________________________ CONPOUNOED ANNUAL HATES OF CHANGE TERM INAL IN IT IA L 6-84 7—64 - 1 5 *5 7-64 8—84 9-L6 4 10-84 11-84 12-64 2-65 MONTH 3-85 M IL L IO N S 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-65 9-65 10—65 11-65 Of 12-65 107 ,5 6 3 6-64 - 6 *9 - 1 .8 *- «4 - 2 *6 4 .6 10-64 - 0 .3 5 .4 107 ,3 9 6 108 ,3 7 3 11.5 9. 1 1 0 8 ,9 7 4 6 .9 1 10 ,2 5 5 11-64 2 .6 7 .7 1 1.1 1 0 .9 1 5.1 12—64 1 .8 5 .6 7 .6 6 .3 6 .0 - 2 .3 1-65 3 .0 6 .4 8 .2 7 .4 7 .5 4 .0 1 0 .6 8 .9 8 .4 6 .8 1 1 .7 2-85 1-85 4 .2 7 .3 8 .8 110 ,0 4 2 110 ,9 7 2 112 ,0 9 6 1 2 .9 1 1 1 ,6 5 4 3-65 3 .4 6 .0 7 .2 6 .5 6 .5 4 .4 6 .8 4 .9 - 2 .6 4-65 6 .9 9 .8 1 1.3 1 1 .3 1 2 .0 1 1 .5 1 5 .2 1 6 .7 1 8 .7 4 4 .7 5-«? 5 .8 8 .2 9 .4 9 .1 9 .5 8 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .0 1 0 .3 1 7 .4 - 4 .8 6-65 4 .3 6 .3 7 .1 6 .6 6 .6 5 .5 6 .8 6 .1 4 .4 6 .9 - 6 .1 - 1 1 .4 7-65 4 .5 6 .4 7 .2 6 .7 6 .7 5 .7 6 .9 6 .3 5 .0 7 .0 - 3 .2 - 2 .4 7 .5 $-«5 6 .2 8 .1 8 .9 8 .7 8 .9 8 .2 9 .6 9 .5 0 .9 1 1 .3 4 .3 7 .5 1 8 .4 1 15 ,3 5 1 1 14 ,8 6 4 113 ,7 3 0 1 14 ,4 1 7 3 0 .4 116 ,9 7 7 *- «5 7 .6 9 ,5 1 0 .4 1 0 .3 1 0 .6 1 0 .2 1 1 .7 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 1 4 .2 8 .9 1 2 .7 2 2 .0 3 0 .0 2 9 .7 10—65 3 .9 5 .4 5 .9 5 .5 5 .4 4 .6 5 .3 4 .7 3 .7 4 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .1 3 .0 1 .6 - 1 0 .4 - 3 8 .1 11-65 4 .1 5 .4 5 .9 5 .5 5 .4 4 .7 5 .3 4 .8 4 .0 4 .8 0 .9 3 .6 2 .6 - 5 .3 - 1 9 .0 5 .9 1 .1 - 6 .9 1 4 .1 2 2 .8 9 .5 1 1.4 1 .0 10-65 11-65 12-65 5 .0 6 .4 6 .9 6 .6 6 .6 6 .0 6 .7 1-66 4 .8 6 .1 6 .6 6 .3 6 .2 5 .6 6 .2 6-84 7-64 8-84 9-84 10-84 h* 1 0» * 12-65 12-64 6 .3 1-85 0. 1 1 1 9 ,5 3 8 5 .7 6 .7 2 .7 3 .8 6 .6 6 .4 5 .3 6 .1 2 .5 3 .4 5 .8 5 .5 1 .1 - 5 .0 2-85 3-85 4-65 5-85 6-65 7-85 8-65 9-65 i* m M . 1 1 4 ,6 6 0 11 5 ,4 0 9 1 1 7 ,405P il7 ,5 0 1 E im onth ± r P R O . I M l M A R Y ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ E - E STIM A TED ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ PREPA RED BY F E O E R A L R ESE R V E BANK O f ST» FEBRU A RY 1 3, 1986 9 L O U IS HOURLY COMPENSATION* B U S IN E S S SECTOR ♦ C 0 H W W t e O A * 0 iU A l R A T « « CHAHtE------------------------------~----------- T Fin rn w r----------------------- -- ------- -------------------m v m QUARTER ______________________ -• 1 -8 * ¿- 8 1 >-81 4—81 1-81 • ' ■ ■ ¿- 8 2 quarter — ------------------------------------------------- i v i m i u u ________• • -> •• • ______________ l - T T “ 2-83 4~8i 3-83 ~ ^ 8 3 3-82 “ T - SS " 2-84 __________________ __________________________________ 4 - 8 V 1-85 3-85 2-"85 3 -fA 142.1 2—81 7*1 >-81 8*2 ~9. J 4-81 7 .5 7 .7 145 .3 6 .2 147 .5 1 51 .2 1-82 8 .2 8 .6 8. > 2-82 8 .0 8*2 7 .9 8 .7 7 .1 >-02 7 .9 6« 1 7#8 8 .3 7 .3 7 .5 4-82 7 .4 7 .T 7 .1 7 .3 6 .3 5 .9 4 .4 1 0 .4 1 53 .8 I >6.6 1 58 .3 1 6 0 .0 1-83 7 .0 7 .0 6 .6 6 .7 5 .8 5 .4 4 .4 4 .4 2-83 ¿ .5 6# 4 6 .0 5 .9 5 .0 4 .6 3 .6 “ 3 .7 2 .0 >—83 6 .0 5 .9 5 .4 5.> 4 .5 4 .0 3 .1 2 .7 1 .9 1 .8 V-83 ¿.0 5 .8 " 5 .5 "5 .4 4 .7 4 .3 3. 7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 1 6 0 .8 " 161 .5 1e>3 . b 5". 8 1 65 .V 1-84 5 .9 5. 8 5 .4 5 .4 4 .7 4 .4 3 .9 3*8 3 .7 4 .3 5 .5 5 .2 2-84 5 .6 5 .5 "5 .1 5 .0 4/5 4 .1 3 .7 " 3 .5 3 .4 3 .7 4 .4 377 2 .2 5. 4 "5 .1 5 .0 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .8 4 .3 3 .8 3 .2 1 66 .8 4 .1 1 68 .5 >—84 5 .5 4-84 5 .4 5. > 4 .9 4 .8 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 3".6 3 .5 3 .8 4. Z 3 .8 3 .3 3 .9 3 .6 1-85 5 .3 5 .2 4 .9 b ♦8 4 .4 4 .1 3 .8 3 .7 3 .* 3 .9 4 .2 379 . 3 .6 4 .1 4 .1 4 .5 2—85 5 .2 5. 1 4 .8 ^♦7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .? 4 .2 3 .9 3 .6 4.'0 " 4 .2 i.# 3—45 5 .2 5 .1 4 .8 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .9 4 .2 4 .0 3 .8 4 .1 4 .1 4 .3 ""V. 1 ^ .5 4-85 5.1 5 .Ö 4 .8 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4.7) 3 .8 4 .1 4. 1 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 K IZ 1-81 2-81 >-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 >-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 >-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 >-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 IN IT IA L "* .c r 17 0 .U IU .V T 7 3 .5 175 .4 177.2M QUARTER ♦ R E V ISED t t ö H l-H P- P R E L IH IN A R Y OUTPUT P E R M OW Of A U PERSO N S» B U S IN E S S A M f b U * u f f * <5* C i U i « « ; SECTOR ♦ i r m m c ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- i r i t i ü q u a r t e r -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- m r * i u u QUARTER________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2-85 ^ 3 5 3-83 1-85 4-83 1-84 2-84 2 - W T >-8i 1-83 2-83 >-84 4-84 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 4-82 ‘ 2-81 - 0 .8 J- T i 0 .8 i.i" 4-81 - t.3 - 1 .6 1-82 - l.i - l.i - 2 .9 - 0 .4 2-87 —0 . - 0 .5 "=1.4 0 .6 I ♦t> >-82 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 - 1 .0 0 .5 1 *0 4-82 0 .1 0 .3 - O .i 1 .2 1 .7 1 .8 3 .2 1-83 0*6 0 .8 0 .5 1 .8 2 .3 2 .5 3 .6 4 .0 ¿- 8 3 1 .0 1 .2 l.l 2 .2 2 .7 3 .0 3 .9 4 .2 4 .4 1 01 .3 9 9 .9 9 9 .8 iuu.<r 1 00 .3 0 .4 101.1 “ I0 2 ;i "1 0 3 .2 >-83 0 .8 1 .0 0 .8 1 .7 2 .1 2 .T - 2 .6 2 .4 1 4-83 0 .9 1 .1 ~ I.O 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .5 2 .4 I ♦9 0 .6 2 .4 1-84 1 .2 1 .4 1 .3 2 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .9 2 .8 T i* 1 .9 r. 5 1 0 2 .9 - 1 .2 1 U 3 .5 4 .7 104 . r 2-84 1 .3 1 .4 2 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 1 .9 " 3 .0 3 .3 1 .9 >-84 1.2 1 .2 1 .9 2 .1 2 .1 2 .4 2 .2 1 .9 1 .5 2 .1 2 .1 0 .8 - 0 .4 4-64 1 .0 l.l 1 .6 l.ft 1 .9 2 .0 “ 1 .9 1 .6 1 .1 1 .6 1 .4 0. 3 - 0 .6 —0 . 8 “ 1 05 .2 IU 5 .1 IU 4 .9 1-85 1 .0 1. 0 1 .5 177“ 1 .7 1 .8 1 .7 1 .4 1 .0 1 .4 1 .2 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .2 0 .4 2-85 1.0 1 .0 1 .5 I 1 .6 1 .7 1. 6 1 .3 1 .0 1 .3 1.1 ott Ü .0 O. I 0 .6 U.tt >-85 1 .0 "l.l- 1 .5 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 1 .6 1 .4 l.l 1 .4 1 .2 0 .6 0 .4 0 .6 1 .0 “1 .3 o .r~ 0 .2 0 .4 D .4 >-84 4-84 1-85 0 .9 t ;> 1 .4 1 .4 1 .5 1 .4 1-81 2-81 >-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 >-82 4-82 "' l . l 1-83 0 .8 2-83 IN IT IA L + k £ vtfi£ ö f r o h m P- P R E L IM IN A R Y 1 .0 07* 0 .3 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 IU 5 . 1 0 .2 - 1 .5 >-85 1 1 .0 IU 5 .2 r.9 ^ - <N 0 .9 IU 5 .U CD 4-85 10077 1 0 5 .3P QUARTER l PR EPA R EO BY FEDERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS F E M IM A Y 1 9 , 1986----------------------------------- 10 PRODUCTIVITY, RAT 10 S C A L E 1977-100 COMPENSATION, AND LABOR C O S T S * RAT 10 S C A L E 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED som e. u.s. o erA ju ntN rr fEACENTTAOES A « * op la bo r fAEPARED 6Y FE&EAAL RESERVE BAH* Of ST. L O « IS AN W AL JUTCS Of C H A*«t F«t f€ « IO D S LATEST OAT A PLOTTED, I Mï» ICATCO . 4TH W A A T E * f tE L IM I (tAAY H E V IS E J FKOM 1947. U N IT LABOR COSTS* B U S IN E S S SECTOR ♦ -------------------- CÛ*tt)U*ôÉi> AWMu a L ft A f fS ÔF C W i k « ------------------------I n it ia l TERMINAL QUARTER 1-81 2-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 i- é i 4-è3 t-84 2-04 3-84 4-84 T ^ 5 ~ 7 ^*5 3= B5_ 141.1 t.t 1 4 3 .5 3—81 7*4 7 .0 4-81 9 .0 4 .6 t* .2 1-èi 4 .5 IÔ .Ô 1 1 .4 1 4 7 .7 1 5 1 .6 11 .0 15 3 .5 2-82 8 .4 8 .8 9 .4 8 .0 5 ;i 3-82 8 .3 8 .4 8 .8 7 .7 6 .0 ¿ .9 4-82 7 .3 7 .2 t.i 6 .0 4 .4 4 .1 1 .3 1—83 6 .4 6 .2 6 *0 % •8 3 .4 2 .8 0 .6 0 .3 2-83 5 .4 5 .1 4 .8 3 .7 2 .3 1 .6 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 - 2 .0 3-83 5 .1 4 .9 ^♦6 3 .6 2 .4 1 .8 0 .6 0 .3 0 .4 5 .0 4 .> 4 .5 3 .5 2 .5 2 .1 1 .1 1.1 1 .4 3.1 4 .5 4 .1 3 .2 2 .3 1 .8 1 .0 1 .0 1.1 772 4—83 IV 7 M 1 U U «QUARTER 2 -Ô i 156. 1 1 5 6 .6 156 .7 1 5 5 .V 1 5 7 .U 2 .9 1 5 B .3 3 .4 1 .9 0 .5 2-84 4 .2 4 .0 3 .7 2 .9 2 .0 1 .6 0 .9 0 .8 0 .9 1.7 1 .3 0 .3 3—84 4*3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .0 2 .3 T79 1 .3 1 .3 1 .5 773 2 .1 r. 7 "2 .3 1—84 1 5 B .5 “ 0 .0 1 5 8 .5 I6 U . 3 4 .6 4—84 4 .3 4 .0 3*8 3 .1 “ 2 .5 772 1 .7 1 .7 2 .0 2 .6 2 .6 2 .4 1 .0 4 .6 4 .6 1—85 4 .5 4 .1 3 .4 3 .2 2 .6 2 .4 T .9 2 .0 2 .2 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 3 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 2—85 4 .2 4 .0 3 .8 3 .2 ~ ~ 2 .6 2.'4 770 2 .1 7 .3 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3 .2 4 .0 3 .b J.5 2. f 162 .1 1 6 3 .8 3—85 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .2 2 .6 2 .4 771 271 2 .3 2 .8 2 .8 2 .0 3.1 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 T . 7 ¿*f 4—85 4 .2 4 .0 3 .8 3 .3 2 .« 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 2 .6 3* 1 3.1 3 .1 3 .5 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 4 .0 5 .4 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 IN IT IA L 1 6 6 .U 1 6 8 .2 P < QUARTER M IE L lN IN A R V PRER A R EO BY FEO ERA L R E SE R V E BANK OF ST* L O U IS F EBRU A RY IV * 1956------------------------------------ 11 ' 164 .7 ‘ " GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED A W tM L R A T ES OP CHANGE________ 1-81 2-81 3-8l 4-81 1-82 2-82 *-82 4-8? 1-83 _2-8 3 >-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5 .3 3-81 8*3 11*3 4-81 6 .1 6*5 1-82 4 .5 4*2 2-82 4*8 4*7 2 *4 2 *9 6 .2 3-82 4 .4 4*3 2 *6 2*8 4 .3 4 -82 4 *4 4 *3 2 *9 3*1 4 .3 3 *4 4 *2 1-83 4*8 4*7 3 *6 3 *9 5 .0 4 .6 5*7 7*2 2-83 5 .6 5*6 4 *8 5 *3 6 .4 6 *5 7*9 9*7 12.3 8*1 9*4 10*6 3 ,0 9 9 . 6 3 ,1 1 4 . 4 1 .9 3 ,1 1 2 . 6 - 0 .2 3 ,1 5 9 . 5 3 ,1 7 9 . 4 2 *5 7*0 3 ,2 1 2 . 5 3 ,2 6 8 .7 3 ,3 6 5 .1 3 ,4 3 7 * 5 8 .9 3 -83 5 .9 6 *0 5*3 5*8 6 .8 4 -8 3 6 *4 6*5 6 *0 6 .5 7 *5 7*8 8 *9 10*0 11*0 1 0 .4 11*8 1-84 7*3 7*4 7 *1 7 .7 8*7 9 .0 10*2 11*4 1 2.5 1 2.5 14*4 17*0 2-84 7*4 7*6 7*3 7 .8 8 *7 9*1 10*0 11*0 11.8 1 1 .7 12*6 13*0 3 ,5 3 5 . 0 3 ,6 7 6 . 5 9 *1 3 ,7 5 7 .5 3-84 7*3 7*5 7*1 7 .6 8 *4 8*7 9*5 10*3 10.8 1 0 .5 10*9 10*6 7 .5 6 *0 4—84 7*1 7 .2 6 *9 7 .3 8*1 8*3 8*9 9*5 9 .8 9 .4 9*5 9 *0 6 .4 5*1 4 *3 1-85 7*1 7*2 6 *9 7 .3 8 *0 8*1 8*7 9*2 9 .5 9 .1 9 .1 8 *6 6 .6 5*7 5 *6 6 *9 8 .9 8*5 8*4 7 *9 6 *1 5 *4 5*2 5*7 3 ,8 1 2 .2 3 ,8 5 2 .5 3 ,9 1 7 . 5 3 ,9 6 0 . 6 4*5 7*7 7*8 8*3 8*7 7 .0 7 .6 7*7 8*1 8*5 8 .6 8*2 8*1 7 *6 6 *1 5*5 5 *4 5*7 5*1 5*8 6 .8 7 *4 7*4 7*8 8*1 8 .2 7*8 7*7 7*2 5 *9 5*3 5*2 5*4 4 *9 5*2 4 *5 t- 8 i T=*T 3-82 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 ¿- 8 4 3-84 4—84 1-85 2-8F 3-85 6 .9 7 .0 3-85 6 .9 4-85 6 .7 1-81 2-81 6*8 3-81 7 .1 4-81 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS COWPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE TERM IN A L QUARTER 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 DOLLARS AW UA L RATES 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 3 ,2 5 0 * 2 3-81 0*2 1*8 -1*7 - 1 *9 1-82 - 2 *8 2-82 - 2 *0 —2*2 3 ,2 6 4 . 6 - 5*5 3 ,2 1 9 . 0 -5*7 - 5 *9 - 3 *4 - 2*4 3 ,1 7 0 . 4 3 ,1 7 9 . 9 1*2 3-82 1-83 4-82 4 ,0 6 1 . 5 nm&Ms (5? - 1 *3 4-8 1 4-8 2 4 ,0 1 6 . 9 I N I T1 AL QUARTER 1-81 2-81 3-85 3 ,0 1 7 * 7 2—81 2-85 B IL L IO N S OE DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S I N I T I A L QUARTER TEftflPttl QUARTER 3 ,1 5 4 .5 - 1 *8 —1*9 - 1 *1 -1 * 1 2-8 3 o o 3-83 0 *4 4-8 3 1*1 1-84 1*9 1*3 —2 *6 - 1 .9 - 0 *5 -1*3 —1*5 -0 *7 0 *6 0 *4 2 .3 4 .0 —0 * 1 0 *8 2 *2 2 *5 4 .5 6 .4 8 .9 1*3 2 *6 2*8 4 .4 5 .7 6 .5 4 .3 1 .3 2*1 3 *3 3*7 5 .1 6 .3 7 .0 6 .1 8 *0 3*1 4 *3 4 *8 6*1 7 .3 8.1 7 .9 9 *7 0 .6 3 ,1 5 9 .3 3 ,1 9 0 . 6 3 ,2 5 9 .3 3 ,2 9 3 . 4 3 ,3 5 7 .2 3 ,4 4 9 . 4 1 1 .4 2-84 2*1 2*4 2*5 3*3 4 .4 4 *8 6 .0 6 .9 7 .5 7 .2 8 .1 8 *2 5 .1 3 -8 4 2*1 2*4 2 *4 3*2 4 .2 4 .5 5 .5 6 .2 6 .6 6 .1 6 *6 6 .1 3 *6 4 -8 4 2*0 2*3 2*3 3 *0 3*8 4 .1 4 .9 5 .5 5 .7 5*2 5 .4 4 .7 2 *6 1*3 0 .6 1-85 2*1 2*4 2 *4 3 *0 3 *8 4. 1 4 .8 5 .3 5 .4 5*0 5*1 4 .5 2 *9 2*1 2 .1 3 .7 2-85 2* I 2*3 2*3 2 *9 3 *6 3 .8 4 .5 4 .9 5 .0 4 .5 4 .5 3 .9 2 *5 1*9 1*8 2 .4 1*1 3 -85 2*1 2*9 3 *6 3 .8 4 .3 4 .7 4 .8 4 .3 4 .3 3 .8 2 .6 2*1 2 *1 2 .6 2*1 3 *0 4-85 2*1 2 *3 2 *8 3 *4 3 .6 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .0 4 .0 3 .5 2 *4 1*9 1 .9 2*3 1*8 2*1 5-81 4—81 1-12 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-BT 3-83 4-83 1-B4 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 1-81 2-81 3 ,4 9 2 * 6 3 ,5 1 0 * 4 2*1 3 ,5 1 5 .6 3 ,5 4 7 .8 3 ,5 5 7 . 4 3 ,5 8 4 .1 1*2 3 ,5 9 4 . 8 I N I T IA L QUART\ TC' PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK Cff S T » LOUT S FEBRU A RY 2 0 , 1*86 12 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT R A T I O S CALE QUARTERLY TOTALS T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS S EA S O N A L L Y AT ANNUAL R A T E S AOJUSTEO TRILLIONS R A TI O S CAL E OF DOLLARS 4. 6 SOURCE» U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTA6ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS 13 GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE 1978 1979 1980 ■as *stt> in n a tio n a l 1981 1982 1983 1984 in c*« * accounts LATEST DATA P l t T T U t 1985 o .s . d íp a rtu im t PERCtMTA®£$ AHE A IM *A i *AT£S Of CttAJMC POH PER IO D S 1986 of ca a ftftcc IN D ICATED . 4TN 0* AHTER PREPARED e t F U C A A l R E S t R V t IAMK Of S T . I M P L I C IT 1-81___ 2=fil___ 4 - 8 1____________ 1-02 Of ________________________________________ 2-82 >-82 4-82 1-83 2~83 >-83 1982 ■ 100 4-83___ 1-84 2-8* >-84 4-8A |- $ 5 2-83 3-85 _£l »_Z_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 92.8 6 .0 4~31 8*3 9 8 .2 1-62 7 .6 7 .8 7 .1 5 *9 2-62 7 .0 7 .1 6 .4 5 .4 5 *0 3-62 6 .8 6 .8 6 .2 5*5 5 *4 5 .8 4—8 2 6 .4 6 .3 5 .7 5*1 4 *8 4 *7 3*6 1-63 5 .9 5 .8 5 .2 4 *6 4 *3 4 .0 3*2 2 .8 2-63 5 #6_ 5 .5 4 .9 4 .4 4 .1 3 .8 3*2 3*0 3*2 5 .5 5 .4 4 *9 4 .4 4 .2 3-63 ANNUAL M T E S I N l T t AL O V A R T E T E R M IN A I QUARTER 3-61 L O * IS P R IC E DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT ____________________________________ C W P Q W P E P 2 - f ll SCALE 1982-100 1982-100 9 9 .4 100*8 101*7 102*4 4 .0 3 *6 3*6 3*9 103*2 104*4 4 .7 5 .3 _ 5 .2 4 .7 4*3 4* i 3*9 3*6 3*5 3*8 4 .1 3 .5 1-84 5 .3 5 .2 4*8 4 *4 4*2 4*1 3*8 3*8 4*1 4 .4 4 .3 5 .0 2-64 5 ,2 5 .1 4 .7 4*3 4*1 4 .0 3*8 3*8 4 .0 4 .3 4 .1 4 .4 3 .8 3-64 5 ♦1 5»0 4 .6 4*3 4 .1 4 .0 3*8 3*8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .0 4 .2 3 .8 3 .8 4 -6 4 5 .0 4 .9 4 .5 4 *2 4*1 4 .0 3*8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .1 4 .0 4 .1 3*8 3*8 3*7 1-65 4 .9 _ 4 .7 4 .4 4 *1 4 *0 3 .9 3*7 3*7 3 .8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 3*6 3 .5 3*3 2-65 4 .8 4 .6 4 *3 4*1 3*9 3 .8 3*7 3*7 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 3 .8 3*5 3 .4 3*3 3*1 3 .3 3-65 4 .7 4 .5 4*3 4 *0 3*9 3 .8 3 .6 3*6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .6 3*4 3*3 3*2 3*1 3 .1 2*9 4-6 5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .2 3 *9 3*8 3*7 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .6 3 .6 3 *4 3*3 3*2 3*1 3 .2 3*1 3*3 1-81 2-61 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 < < > CO 1 105*3 4-63 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-65 2-85 3-85 “ iN tr tA L 106*6 107*6 108*6 109*6 110*4 3*0 111*3 112*1 113*0 Ù Ü A b tëk PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R ES E R V E FEBRU A RY 2 0 » I 906 14 BANK OF S T . L O U IS PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPEN D IT U R ES IN CURRENT DO LLARS _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE_______________ OF TERMINAL______________ _________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER____________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS iW H U À I RÄT E S QUARTER 4-84 3-65 3-62 2-85 2-82 4-82 1-83 3-64 1-81 1-85 1-84 2-84 2-61 1-82 2—63 3-63 4-83 3-61 4-81 1 ,8 9 6 .4 2-ei 7 »4 3—61 8 .5 9 .7 4-61 7 .0 6 .8 1 ,9 4 0 .9 1 ,9 6 0 .2 4 .0 1 ,9 9 6 .3 1—62 7 .2 7 .1 5 .8 7 .6 2-62 6 .9 6 .7 5 .7 6 .6 5 .6 3—6 2 7 .1 7.1 6 .4 7 .2 7 .1 8 .5 4-62 7 .6 7 .6 7 .2 8 .0 8 .1 9 .4 1 0.3 1-63 7 .3 7 .3 6 .9 7 .5 7 .5 8 .1 7 .9 5 .6 2-63 7 .9 8 .0 7 .7 8 .3 8 .5 9 .2 9 .4 9 .0 1 2 .5 2 ,2 1 0 .1 8 .4 2 ,2 * 4 .9 2 ,0 2 3 .6 2 ,0 6 5 . 6 2 ,1 1 7 .0 2 , 14-6.0 3-63 7 .9 8 .0 7 .8 8 .3 8 .5 9 .0 9 .2 8 .8 1 0 .4 4-63 8 .1 8.1 8 .0 8 .5 8 .6 9 .1 9 .2 8 .9 1 0 .1 8 .9 9 .4 1-64 8 .2 8 .3 8 .1 8 .6 8 .7 9 .1 9 .2 9 .0 9 .9 9 .1 9 .4 9 .4 2-64 8 .3 8 .4 8 .3 8 .7 8 .8 9 .2 9 .3 9 .2 9 .9 9 .2 9 .5 9 .6 9 .8 2 ,3 0 6 . 3 2 ,3 5 8 . 6 2 ,4 1 4 . 4 2 ,4 3 9 . 0 3-64 8 .0 8 .1 7 .9 8 .3 8 .3 6 .6 8 .7 8 .4 8 .9 8 .2 8 .2 7 .7 6 .9 4 .1 4-64 7 .9 8 .0 7 .8 8 .2 8 .2 8 .5 8 .5 8 .2 8 .6 8 .0 7 .9 7 .5 6 .9 5 .5 6 .9 1-65 7 .9 7 .9 7 .8 6 .1 8 .1 8 .4 8 .4 8 .1 8 .5 7 .9 7 .8 7 .5 7 .1 6 .2 7 .2 2-65 7 .8 7 .8 7 .7 8 .0 8 .0 8 .2 8 .2 8 .0 8 .2 7 .7 7 .6 7 .3 6 .9 6 .2 6 .9 6 .8 6 .2 3-65 7 .7 7 .8 7 .6 7 .9 7 .9 8 .1 8 .1 7 .9 8 .1 7 .6 7 .5 7 .2 6 .9 6 .3 6 .9 6 .8 6 .5 6 .8 4-65 7 .6 7 .6 7 .4 7 .7 7 .7 7 .8 7 .8 7 .6 7 .7 7 .3 7 .2 6 .9 6 .5 6 .0 6 .3 6 .2 5 .8 5 .6 4 .4 i —81 T h *i 4-61 1-62 4-62 1-83 4-63 1-64 2-64 5-64 4—64 1-65 2-65 3-65 IN im i 2 ,4 6 0 .1 2 ,5 2 5 . 0 7 .4 2 ,5 6 3 . 3 2 ,6 0 6 .1 2 ,6 3 4 . 0 OOWTETT PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPEN D IT U R ES IN 1962 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________ IN IT IA L TERMINAL QUARTER 1-81 2-61 2-61 3-61 4-61 1-62 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-63 2-63 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T ES QUARTER 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 4-64 1-65 3-85 2 ,0 2 2 . 4 - 0 ,1 3-61 0 ,9 1*8 4-61 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 2 .2 2*2 2 * 0 3 1 .5 2 ,0 2 0 . 0 2 ,0 3 1 . 2 1-62 0 ,4 0*6 0*0 2-62 0 ,7 0*9 0*6 2 .1 1*9 3-62 1 .0 1 .2 1 .0 2 .1 2 .0 2 .1 4-62 1*6 1,8 1*9 2*9 3 .1 3 .7 5 .3 1-63 1 .6 2 .1 2 .1 3 .0 3 .2 3 .6 4 .4 2-65 2 * 0 4 1 .0 2 ,0 5 1 . 0 2 ,0 7 8 . 7 3 .4 2 ,0 9 6 . 4 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 3 .8 4 .2 4 .7 5 .6 5 .7 8 .0 3-63 Zt.7 3*0 3*2 4 .0 4 .2 4 .7 5 .4 5 .4 6 .3 4 .7 4-63 2 .9 3 .2 3 .4 4 .1 4 .3 4 .7 5 .3 5 .3 5 .9 4 .8 5 .0 2 ,1 3 7 . 2 2 ,1 6 1 . 8 2 , 1 80 . 1 1-64 3 .0 3 .3 3 .4 4 .1 4 .3 4 .7 5 .1 5 .1 5 .5 4*6 4 .6 4 .2 2 -6 4 3 .2 3 .5 3 .7 4 .3 4 .5 4 .8 5 .2 5 .2 5 .6 5*0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .9 3-64 3 .2 3 .4 3 .9 4 .1 4 .3 4 .6 4 .5 4 .6 4 .0 3 .8 3 .4 3 .0 4-64 3 .3 3 .4 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .3 4 .4 3 .9 3 .7 3 .4 3 .1 1 .7 3 .4 3*4 3*5 3*9 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 2 .7 4 .1 4 .8 3 .5 3 .3 2 .7 3 .6 3 .7 2 .6 1-65 2-85 3a 2 ,2 1 0 .9 2 ,2 4 3 .0 0 .1 2 ,2 4 3 .4 2 * 2 6 2 .0 2 ,2 0 0 . 6 2-65 3 .1 3*3 3 .4 3 .8 3 .9 4. 1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 3 .8 3 .7 3-65 3 .2 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .1 3 .0 4 .0 3 .6 4 .6 4 -65 3 ,0 3 .2 3 .3 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .5 3 .4 3 .2 3 .1 2 .6 3 .1 3 .0 2 .4 2 .3 0 .1 1-81 2-81 >-81 4-81 1-62 2-62 3-62 4-82 1-83 2-63 3-63 4-63 1-84 2-64 3-64 4-6 4 1-65 2-65 3-65 2 ,3 0 3 .5 2 ,3 2 9 . 6 2 ,3 3 0 . 3 I n t t i ÀL öÜAftTtft w ep A *et> èY m t k k L FE BR U A R Y 2 0 , 1996 15 è*** o* tr. lö u h GROSS P R IV A T E DOMESTIC INVESTM ENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS _____________ COHPOUHDEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE___________ TERM INAL QUARTEP IN IT IA L 1-81 2 —81 2-81 3-61 4-81 1-82 2-62 3-82 4-82 1-83 f e f U í ó k S ÔP DOLLARS ANNUAL R ATES QUARTER 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 4-64 1-65 2-65 3-65 6 .8 5 1 5 .3 3-6 I 11.8 1 7 .0 4-61 - 0 .8 —4 .3 - 2 1 .8 1-62 —9 .4 - 1 4 .2 - 2 6 .5 - 3 0 .9 2-62 5 3 5 .9 5 0 4 .0 4 5 9 .5 - 6 .2 - 9 .2 - 1 6 .6 - 1 3 .8 7 .4 3-62 - 7 .3 - 9 .9 - 1 5 .6 - 1 3 .5 - 3 .2 - 1 2 .7 4—62 - 1 1.5 - 1 4 .2 - 1 9 .3 - 1 8 .7 - 1 4 .2 - 2 3 .3 - 3 2 .7 1-63 - 8 .4 - 1 0 .4 - 1 4 .3 - 1 2 .7 - 7 .5 - 1 2 .0 - 1 1 .7 1 5.9 2 -63 - 2 .1 - 3 .1 - 5 .7 - 2 .7 4 .2 3 .4 9 .4 3 9 .5 6 7 .8 3-63 1 .1 0 .5 - 1 .4 1 .9 8 .8 9 .0 1 5 .3 3 7 .9 5 0 .4 3 4 .8 4-6 3 4 .9 4 .7 3.4- 7 .1 1 4 .0 15.1 2 1 .6 4 1 .0 5 0 .5 4 2 .6 5 0 .8 1-64 9 .1 9 .3 8 .6 1 2 .6 1 9 .7 2 1 .6 2 8 .5 4 6 .3 5 5 .0 5 1 .0 5 9 .8 6 9 .2 2-64 9 .1 9 .3 8 .7 1 2 .3 1 8 .5 <N ° 2 5 .5 3 9 .3 44.5 3 9 .2 4 0 .7 3 5 .9 9 .1 3-64 9 .1 9 .3 8 .7 1 2 .0 1 7 .5 1 8 .7 2 3 .3 34 .5 3 7 ,9 3 2 .5 3 2 .0 2 6 .2 9 .0 4 6 7 .8 4 5 2 .2 4 0 9 .6 4 2 5 .0 4 6 3 .7 5 2 1 .2 5 7 7 .6 6 5 8 .8 6 7 3 .3 9 .0 6 8 7 .9 4 -6 4 8 .0 8 .1 7 .4 10 .3 1 5 .1 1 5 .9 1 9 .6 2 8 .5 3 0 .4 2 5 .0 2 3 .2 17.1 3 .5 0*9 —6 . 6 6 7 6 .2 1-65 6 .7 6 .7 6 .0 8 .5 1 2 .7 1 3 .2 16.2 2 3 .4 2 4 .4 1 9.2 16.8 1 0 .9 - 0 .2 - 3 .1 - 6 .6 - 1 0 .6 6 5 7 .6 2-65 6 .9 6 .9 6 .3 8 .6 1 2 .4 1 2 .9 1 5 .5 2 2 .0 2 2 .6 1 7 .9 1 5.7 1 0 .7 1 .7 - 0 .1 - 2 .9 - 1 .0 9 .6 3-65 6 .3 6 .2 5 .6 7 .7 1 1 .2 11.5 1 3.8 19.3 19.7 1 5 .3 1 3.0 8 .5 0 .7 - 0 .9 - 3 .2 - 2 .0 2 .6 - 3 .9 4-85 6 .3 6 .3 5 .7 7 .7 1 0 .9 1 1.2 13 .3 18.3 18.5 1 4 .5 1 2.4 8 .3 1 .7 0 .5 - 1 .2 0 .3 4 .2 1 .6 7 .3 1-ÔI 2 -Ö I 4-81 1-Ö2 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-63 3-63 1-84 2-84 3-64 4—6 4 1-85 2-65 3-85 6 7 2 .8 666. 1 6 7 8 .0 IN IT IA L QUARTER GROSS P R IV A T E DOMESTIC INVESTM ENT IN 1982 OOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________ TERMINAL l- 9 i 2-61 -pr 8 3-61 3.1 2-81 3-61 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-65 551.2 560.7 7.1 517.9 -8.2 -11.7 -27.2 4-61 464.2 -20.5 -31.5 -35.5 1-62 - 2-62 - 1 2 1? -15.2 -21.5 -18.5 467.5 2.9 446.6 3-B2 - 12.9 -15.2 -20.0 -17.4 4-62 - 1 5 *? -18*1 -22*3 -21*1 -15*6 -23.5 -31.0 1-63 - 2-63 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER -14.1 -17.2 -15.0 -5.3 -5.8 -7.5 -3.8 —6.6 -15.2 -9.0 -12.6 -11.3 4.3 4.6 408.8 422.5 14.1 12.2 43.1 79.4 489.0 526.3 3-63 -2,0 -3*1 0.9 8.7 9.9 17.3 40.1 55.2 4-63 \ *5 1.8 1.2 5.5 13.1 14.9 22.1 40.9 51.1 1-64 5.5 6.1 6.0 10.5 18.2 20.6 27.9 44.7 53.6 2-64 5r 8 6.3 6.3 10.4 17.2 19.1 25.0 38.0 43.4 35.6 36.0 32.5 8.8 3-64 5.8 6.4 6.3 10.0 16.0 17.6 22.5 33.0 36.4 29.2 27.9 23.2 7.6 6.4 4-64 4.9 5.3 5.1 8.4 13.6 14.8 18.7 27.1 29.0 22.1 19.8 14.6 2.2 -0.9 -7.7 34.2 575.9 CD 43.4 45.9 52.1 649.0 61.3 662.9 673.3 659.9 1-65 3.7 4.0 3.8 6.7 11.3 12.1 15.2 22.0 23.0 16.6 13.9 8.8 -1.4 -4.7 -9.8 -11.7 2-85 4. 1 4.4 4.3 7.0 11.2 11.9 14.8 20.8 21.6 15.8 13.4 9.0 0.8 -1.1 -3.5 -1.3 10.4 3-65 3.5 3.8 3.6 6 .0 9.9 10.4 12.9 18.0 18.4 13.1 10.7 6.7 -0.4 -2.2 -4.2 -3.0 1.7 -6.3 4—6 5 3.6 3.9 3.7 6.0 9.6 10. 1 12.3 17.0 17.2 12.3 10.2 6.6 0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -0.9 3.1 -0.4 5.8 1-81 2-61 3-61 4-61 1-82 2-62 3-82 4-é"¿ t- è i ¿-83 3-63 A-Ô3 l-è4 2-64 3-Ô4 4-64 1-65 2-85 3—85 639.6 655.6 645.0 654.2 IN ITIAL QUARTER PREPA RED ÖY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E FEBRU A RY 2 0 , 1986 16 &ANK OF S T . L O U IS GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND S E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS ___________________COHPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______________________ TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 1-81 2-81 3-61 4-81 2 "6 1 4 .9 3-6 I 7 .8 4 -6 i 1 0.2 1 3 .0 1 5.3 1-82 9 .1 1 0 .6 10.5 5 .9 2-62 7 .7 8 .4 7 .7 4. 1 1-62 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 < QUARTER 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 2-65 5 7 1 .0 5 9 1 .9 6 1 3 .3 6 2 2 .1 6 2 5 .7 2 .3 3-62 8 .8 9 .6 9 .3 7 .4 8 .2 1 4 .4 9 .8 1 0.7 1 0.7 9 .5 1 0.8 1 5.3 1 6.2 1-63 8 .4 8 .8 8 .5 7 .2 7 .6 9 .4 7 .0 - 1 .5 2-83 7 .7 8 .1 7 .7 6 .5 6 .6 7 .7 5 .5 0 .6 2 .7 6 4 7 .1 6 7 1 .8 6 6 9 .3 6 7 3 .0 3-63 7 .4 7 .7 7 .3 6 .2 6 .2 7 .0 5 .3 1 .9 3 .6 4 .4 4 -83 6 .5 6 .7 6 .3 5 .2 5 .1 5 .6 3 .9 1 .0 1 .9 1.4 - 1 .5 1-64 6 .9 7 .1 6 .7 5 .8 6 .3 5 .0 2 .9 4 .1 4 .5 4 .6 5 .8 681. 1 6 7 8 .6 6 9 6 .5 1 1 .0 7 3 5 .1 8 .1 8 .4 8 .2 7 .5 7 .7 8 .4 7 .6 6 .2 7 .8 9. 1 10.7 1 7.3 2 4 .1 3-64 8 .0 8 .3 8 .1 7 .5 7 .6 8 .2 7 .5 6 .3 7 .6 8 .6 9 .7 1 3 .7 15.1 6 .8 4-64 8 .3 8 .5 8 .4 7 .8 8 .0 8 .6 7 .9 6 .9 8 .2 9 .2 10. 1 13 . 2 1 4 .0 9 .3 1 1 .8 1 * 1-85 1 0.7 4 —6 2 CD 4—04 B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S 3-85 7 4 7 .3 7 6 6 .4 1-65 8 .1 8 .3 8. 1 7 .6 7 .7 8 .2 7 .6 6 .7 7 .8 8 .5 9 .2 1 1.5 1 1 .6 7 .7 8 .2 4 .7 2-65 8 .1 8 .3 8 .2 7 .7 7 .0 8 .3 7 .8 7 .0 7 .9 8 .6 9 .2 11.1 11.1 8 .1 8 .6 7 .0 9 .4 3-65 8 .8 9 .0 8 .9 8 .5 8 .7 9 .2 8 .8 8 .1 9. 1 9 .9 10.6 1 2 .4 12.6 10.5 1 1 .4 1 1.3 1 4 .7 2 0 .4 1 2 .3 12.5 1 0 .7 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 3 .8 1 6.1 L 2 .0 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 T -ST 2—65 3-85 4-65 8 .9 9 .2 9. 1 8 .7 8 .9 9 .4 9 .0 8 .4 9 .4 10.1 10.7 1-61 2-81 5-ÔI 4-61 1-82 2-62 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-63 7 7 7 .2 7 9 4 .0 8 3 2 .5 8 5 6 .5 INITIAL Q U A R T E R GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND S E R V IC E S IN 1982 DOLLARS ______________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S OF TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T ES QUARTER 2-84 3-84 4-64 1-85 2-65 3-65 1-84 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-63 4-03 4-81 1-81 2-81 3-61 1-82 626 . 4 2-81 0 ,1 3-61 1*2 2 .4 4-61 2 .0 3.1 3 .7 1-62 1 ,3 1.7 1 .4 - 0 .8 2-02 0 .4 0 .5 - 0 .1 - 1 .9 6 3 0 .2 6 3 5 .9 6 3 4 .6 6 2 9 .7 - 3 .1 3-62 1 .7 2 .1 2 .0 1 .4 2 .5 8 .4 4-62 3 .0 3 .6 3 .8 3 .8 5*4 9 .9 1 1.4 6 4 2 .5 1-63 1*8 2 .1 2 .0 1 .7 2 .3 4 .1 2 .1 —6 5 2-83 1 ,5 1*7 1*6 11 3 1 .7 2 .9 1 .2 6 6 6 0 .1 649. 1 6 4 8 .2 - 0 .6 6 5 1 .5 3-8 3 1 .6 1 .8 1*7 1 .4 1*8 2 .8 1 .4 7 0 .7 2 .1 4 —6 3 0 ,9 1.0 0 .8 0 .5 0 .7 1 .3 0 .0 7 - 1 .4 - 1 .8 - 5 .6 1-64 1 .3 1.4 1.3 1 .0 1 .2 1 .8 0 .8 2 0 .2 0 .4 - 0 .4 5 .0 _» 6 4 2 .2 6 5 0 .1 2-84 2 .4 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .9 3 .7 3 .0 1 7 3 .4 4 .5 5 .3 1 1.2 1 7 .7 3-64 2 .5 2*7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .9 3 .6 3 .1 1 9 3 .4 4 .2 4 .7 8 .4 10.2 3 .2 677. 1 4-6 4 2 ,8 3 ,0 3*0 3 .0 . 3 .3 4 .0 3 .5 2 5 3 .9 4 .6 5 .2 8 .1 9 .1 5 .0 6 .9 6 6 2 .4 6 9 3 .9 1-85 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .9 3 .5 3 .0 2 1 3 .2 3 .8 4 .0 6 .1 6 .4 2 .8 2 .7 - 1 .4 2-65 2 *6 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 3 .6 3. 1 2 3 3 .4 3 .9 4. 1 5 .9 6 .0 3 .3 3 .3 1 .6 4 .7 3-65 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 4 .0 4 .6 4 .3 3 7 4 .8 5 .4 5 .0 7 .5 8 .0 6 .1 6 .9 6 .8 1 1 .2 18.2 1 0 .3 13 .3 8 .5 1-65 2-85 3-85 4 —0 5 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 4 .3 4 .9 4 .6 4 1 5 .1 1-81 2-81 3—8 I 4-61 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 t —83 6 .1 7 .7 8 .0 6 .5 7 .2 7 .3 >-63 4-83 Ï- 8 4 2-84 3-84 4-6 4 5 .7 6 9 1 .4 6 9 9 .4 7 2 9 .2 7 4 4 .3 Ï N l t Î k Z OOAftTÉk P REPA RED BY F E D E R A L R E S ÉfcVÉ BANK OF S T . FEBRU A RY 20* 1986 17 L O U IS D IS P O S A B L E PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT 001 LARS _______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES 0 * CHANCE__________ IN IT IA L TERM INAL QUARTER 2-61 4-61 3-61 CD 1 1-81 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 4-64 1-65 2-85 6 ,0 3-6 i 9 .6 4-61 7 .9 8 .9 4 .7 2 ,1 6 2 .0 1 3 .2 2 ,1 8 7 .0 1-62 6 .9 7 .1 4 .2 > .7 2-62 6 ,8 7 ,0 3 .0 5 .1 6 .4 3-82 6 .8 6 .9 5 .4 5 .6 6 .6 6 .7 6 ,8 7 .0 5 ,7 6 .0 6 .8 6 .9 1-63 6 ,6 6 .6 5 .6 5 .8 6 *> 6 .2 6 .0 4 .8 2-63 6 .7 6 .7 5 .8 6 .0 6 .5 6 .5 6 .4 6 .1 7 .4 6 .4 6 .7 7 .1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .5 8 .9 1 0.5 2 ,2 0 7 .2 2 ,2 4 1 .8 2 ,2 7 8 .6 7 .1 2 ,3 1 8 .1 2 ,3 4 5 .5 2 ,3 8 7 .7 2 ,4 4 7 .9 3-63 7 .0 7 ,1 4-63 7 .3 7 .7 7 .1 7 .4 7 .9 8 .1 8 .4 8 .7 10.1 1 1 .4 12.4 1-64 8 .1 8 .3 7 .8 8 .2 8 .7 9 .1 9 .5 1 0.0 1 1.3 1 2 .6 13.7 1 5 .0 2-64 8 .0 8.1 7 .7 8 .0 8 .5 8 .7 9 .0 9 .3 10.3 1 1 .0 11.2 1 0.5 6 .2 8 .3 8 .6 8 .8 9 .0 9 .7 1 0 .2 10.2 9 .4 6 .7 2 ,5 2 0 .4 2 ,6 1 0 .2 2 ,6 4 9 .9 2 ,6 9 6 .7 7 .9 8 .1 7 .6 7 .9 4 -6 4 7 .7 7 .8 7 .4 7 .6 7 .9 8 .1 8 .3 8 .4 8 .9 9 .2 8 .9 8 .1 5 .8 5 .7 4 .1 1-63 7. > 7 .4 7 .0 7 .2 7 .5 7 .6 7 .6 7 .7 8. 1 8 .2 7 .8 6 .9 4 .9 4 .5 3 .2 2 .3 2-83 7 .6 7 .7 7 .3 7 .5 7 .8 7 .9 8 .0 8 .1 8 .5 8 .6 8 .4 7 .7 6 .3 6 .3 6 .0 7 .0 1 2 .0 1 CD \A 7 .3 3-64 7 .0 7 .1 6 .7 6 .8 7 .0 7 .1 7 .1 7 .1 7. > 7 .3 7 .0 6 .2 4 .8 4 .5 3 .8 3 .8 4 .5 - 2 .5 7 .0 7 .0 6 .7 6 .8 7 .0 7. I 7 .1 7 .1 7. > 7 .3 6 .9 6 .3 5 .1 4 .9 4 .4 4 .5 5 .2 2 .0 1-81 2-81 3—8 I 4-61 1-82 2-82 3-82 4 -èz 1-83 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-64 4—64 1-85 4-83 3-85 2 ,0 9 5 .8 2-61 4-62 8 ï LL1 0 n 5 Ö* OOLLARS ANNUAL R ATES QUARTER 2 ,7 2 3 .8 2 ,7 3 9 .2 2 ,8 1 7 .7 2-65 2 ,8 0 0 .2 6 .6 2 ,8 4 5 .6 3-65 IN IT IA L QUARTÉ* 0 1SPO SA RLE PERSO NAL INCOME IN 1982 OOLLARS _______A * N m **1 5 S OP CHANGE________________________ T ER M IN A L QUARTER ANNUAL R A T ES 1t 81 2-6 1 J L -t l 2 - 91 4 - 9 1 ____1 -6 2 ¿‘ 82 3~82 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 > -8 3 4 -83 1-84 2 -8 4 3-84 4-64 1-65 2 -6 3 3 -6 3 ^ ________________________________________________________________ 2 , 235 . 0 _ L l5_____5_t_l_ 2 ,2 6 2 .9 +-91 2 -92 3 -6 2 BILLIONS OP DOLLARS IN j T f A i W Ä R T E R 0 .6 1 .7 -U6 _____ 0 , 4 ~U 5 ■ It2 - O fl l.o 0 .0 2 ,2 5 3 .7 2 ,2 4 3 . 7 >U 4 __ 2 ,2 6 0 . 9 0 .6 1 .6 2 ,2 6 3 .4 0 .4 2 ,2 7 6 . 1 2 3 4 -6 2 o .e 1 ,2 0 *5 1 ,0 1 .8 1 .3 1-63 1 ,1 1 *4 0 .8 1 .3 2 .0 1 .8 2 5 2 .7 2-6 3 1 ,3 1 .6 1 .2 It* 2 .2 2 .1 2 7 2 .9 3 .1 3 -63 i.e 2 ,2 1 ,8 2 .3 3 .0 3 .0 3 7 4 .2 4 .9 6 .7 4 -6 3 2 ,4 2 ,7 2 *5 3 .0 3 .7 3 .8 4 5 5 .1 5 .9 7 .3 7 .8 1-64 2 .9 3 .3 3 .2 3 .7 4 .4 4 .6 5 3 6 .0 6 .6 8 .0 8 .7 2 -6 4 2 .9 3 .3 3 .1 3 .6 4 .2 4 .3 4 9 5 .4 2 ,2 9 1 . 3 2 ,3 0 9 . 0 5 .9 6 .6 2 ,3 4 6 . 9 2 ,3 9 1 . 3 2 ,4 4 6 . 8 9 .6 6 .6 6 .0 2 .5 2 ,4 6 1 .8 2 ,4 8 0 . 5 3 -6 4 2 .9 3 .3 3 .1 3 .5 4 .1 4 .2 4 7 5 .0 5 .4 5 .9 5 .7 5 .0 2 .8 3 .1 4-64 2 .8 3 .1 2 .9 3 .3 3 .7 3 .8 4 2 4 .5 4 .7 5 .0 4 .7 3 .9 2 .1 1 .8 0 .6 1-65 2 ,6 2 .8 2 .7 3 .0 3 .4 3 .5 3 8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 3 .8 3 .0 1 .5 1 .1 0 .2 - 0 .3 2 -6 5 2 .9 3 .2 3 .0 3 .4 3 .8 3 .8 4 2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .4 3 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 3 .9 8 .2 3 .5 3 .6 3 .7 3 .3 2 .6 1 .5 1 .3 0 .9 1*0 1 .7 - 4 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .2 2 .6 1 .6 1 .5 1 .2 1 .3 1 .9 - 1 .2 2 .3 4 -è * i- é 3 2 -6 3 3 -6 3 4-8 3 1-84 2-84 5 -6 4 4 -6 4 1 -6 5 2 -6 5 3 -6 5 3-65 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .8 3 .1 3 .2 3 4 4-6 5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 2 .8 3*1 3 .1 3 3 1-81 2-61 3-81 4-81 1 -8 2 2-82 2 ,4 6 4 .4 --------------------------------------------H ^ R A A fD &Ÿ « D É R À L PE6RUA HY 2 0 , 1986 18 2 ,4 6 2 . 7 2 ,5 3 2 .2 2 ,5 0 3 .1 2 ,5 1 7 . 5 RÉSÉRVG ftANK Of S T . LOU I T c o r p o r a t e p r o f it s a f t e r t a x e s * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES O f CHAJMSE B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL____________ _______________________ ____________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________ _______________ DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T ES QUARTER 4-84 4-82 2-84 2-85 1-84 3-84 1-85 1-82 1-83 2-83 4-60 1-61 2-81 3 -8 1 4-81 3—6 3 4-83 2- M -fi 1 11*4 2 -Û L - 1 0 .9 - 2 8 .7 3-ei - 5 .1 - 1 2 .4 7 .5 4-6 L - 6 . v - 1 1 .3 - 1 .1 1 154*3 1 4 1 .8 1 4 4 .4 1 4 1 .0 -9. 1 1 0 7 .5 1-62 - 2 3 .5 - 3 0 .3 - 3 0 .9 - 4 4 .6 - 6 6 .2 2-6 2 -20 «2 - 2 5 .4 - 2 4 .5 - 3 2 .9 - 4 2 .4 - 1 .8 3-62 - 1 7 .5 - 2 1 .5 - 2 0 .0 -25 *7 - 3 0 .5 - 0 .4 1 .1 4-6 2 - 1 6 .7 - 2 0 .1 - 1 8 .5 - 2 2 .9 - 2 6 .0 - 3 .9 - 5 .0 - 1 0 .7 1-63 - 1 3 .6 - 1 6 .3 - 1 4 .3 - 1 7 .5 - 1 9 .1 0 .7 1 .5 1 .7 1 5 .8 1 7.8 2 3 .9 4 5 .9 2-63 - 6 .8 - 8 .6 - 5 .7 - 7 .5 - 7 .2 1 3 .5 107*0 107*3 1 0 4 .3 1 0 6 .2 0 3.9 1 2 6 .0 141*3 3-63 - 2 .2 - 3 .5 - 0 .2 - 1 .1 0 .1 2 0 .0 2 4 .9 , 3 1 .7 4 9 .9 70.5 58.2 4-83 - 1 .5 - 2 .6 0 .5 - 0 .2 0 .9 1 8 .0 2 1 .7 2 6 .3 3 7 .7 4 5.8 2 9 .9 6 .7 1-84 - 0 .4 - 1 .3 1 .6 2 .3 1 7.5 2 0 .5 2 4 .1 3 2 .5 37.1 2 4 .3 10.2 1 3 .7 1 4 6 .3 - 4 .2 1 4 6 .7 - 1 0 .5 1. 1 1 4 3 .6 2-64 - 0 .7 - 1 .5 1.1 0 .6 1 .6 14.8 17.1 1 9.6 2 5 .5 2 7.6 16.4 5 .1 4 .4 3-64 - 1 .8 - 2 .7 - 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 0 .2 1 1.2 12.8 14*3 1 8 .5 18.9 9 .0 - 0 .7 - 3 .1 4-64 -1 .6 - 2 .4 —0 .2 - 0 .8 - 0 .1 1 0.3 11.5 1 2.8 1 6.1 16.1 7 .6 - 0 .4 -2. 1 - 6 .9 - 8 .1 10.1 1 2 .7 12.4 4 .7 - 7 .9 -9. 1 - 5 .2 - 1 0 .9 -3 *7 - 5 .9 - 0 .6 0 .5 6 .7 1 4.5 4-64 1-85 2-85 1 4 0 .3 -16. 3 1—6 5 - 2 .2 - 3 .0 - 1 .0 - 1 .6 - 1 .0 8 .3 9 .3 - 2 .2 - 3 .9 2-65 - 2 .1 - 2 .9 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 0 .9 7 .6 8 .4 9. 1 1 1.3 10.8 4 .0 - 2 .0 - 3 .4 -6*5 - 7 .0 3-85 - 1 .3 - 2 .0 -0. 1 —0 . 6 0 .0 8 .1 8 .9 9 .6 1 1 .6 11.2 5 .2 -0. 1 - 1 .0 - 3 .3 -3. 1 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-61 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-8 3 1-84 2-04 1 4 0 .6 0 .9 0.6 1 3 6 .6 1 3 6 .4 141 . 1 .. N A 4-85 IN IT IA L * NATIONAL 3-64 QUARTER INCOME B A S IS N. A. - not a v a ila b le PREPA RED BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E FEBRU A RY 2 0 , 1986 BANK OF S T . HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for 1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of Current Business* Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82 and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate volumes* These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy printout* For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U*S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D*C* 20230. 19 L O U IS I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUF A CTURI NG AND TRADE 68 68 64 64 60 60 56 56 52 52 48 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 32 32 28 28 24 24 1972 1973 1974 «RATIOS B A S E D ON S E A S O NA L L Y SHADED A RE AS LATEST 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 REPRESENT DATA P L OT T E D : ADJUSTED DATA. P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 S OURCE i U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. DECEMBER P R E L I M I N A R Y P R EPA R ED BY FEDERAL 20 R ESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
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