Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1983
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National Economic Trends Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis November 1983 After back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82, the U.S. economy has expanded recently to the point where the level of nonagricultural payroll employment is near the level prior to the 1980 recession. Payroll employment serves as one of the most important and reliable indicators of economic well-being. Furthermore, such data are available for states and regions and thus provide an indication of the geographical impact of national recessions and expansions. The accompanying table summarizes changes in payroll employment by regions as defined by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The expansion since fourth quarter 1982 has been broadly based geographically; employment gains in the recent expansion have been strongest in the South Atlantic, Mountain and Pacific regions and weakest in the Middle Atlantic and West South Central regions. Although the recent economic expansion has brought the level of U.S. employment near that attained in the first quarter of 1980, there is considerable variation among regions, reflecting both longer-term trends and the impact of the two recent recessions. The West South Central region, despite recent weakness, has enjoyed the greatest expansion since early 1980, followed by the Mountain region. Employment in the East North Central region, on the other hand, has declined to 91.6 percent of its first quarter 1980 level. Longer-term weakness also is evident in the East South Central and West North Central regions. —Keith M. Carlson Recent Trends in Payroll Employment (seasonally adjusted) Compounded annual rate of change Expansion Recession IV/82 to III/83 III/81 to IV/82 New England (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT) Middle Atlantic (NJ, NY, PA) South Atlantic (DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV) East North Central (IL, IN, MI, OH, WI) East South Central (AL, KY, MS, TN) West North Central (IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD) West South Central (AR, LA, OK, TX) Mountain (AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY) Pacific (AK, CA, HI, OR, WA) United States* III/83 as a percent of 1/80 -1.7% 98.9% -0.4 -2.0 97.3 2.0 -1.2 101.8 1.1 -4.5 91.6 0.8 -3.3 94.8 0.6 -3.1 94.6 -0.8 -0.9 105.0 1.8 -1.2 102.8 2.0 -2.4 99.4 0.8 -2.4 98.1 0.4% ♦Figures for the United States differ from those for payroll employment on pages 2-3 of this release because of computational differences. Source: Chase Econometrics. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of this Bank or the Federal Reserve System. T O T A L C I V I L I A N EMP LOY ME NT __________ ____________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OP C HAN GE_______________________________________________________ _________________ TERM INAL _____________________________________________ 2 .4 6 .3 6 -8 2 0 .3 1 .2 -3 .7 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 IN IT IA L 1 0-82 11-82 12-82 MONTH___________________________________________________________________________ TH OUS AND S OF PERSON S 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1 -8 3 9 -8 3 5 -8 3 8 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 1 -1 .4 5 -8 2 7 -8 2 ro CD 4 -8 2 6 -8 2 <N 1 4 -8 2 CD 3 -82 9 9* 48 4 9 9* 99 4 99.681 7 -82 -0 .0 0 .4 -2 .4 -1 .1 8 -8 2 0 .2 0 .6 -1 .2 0 .0 9 -82 -0 .1 0 .1 -1 .3 —0 . 6 -0 .3 1 0-82 -0 .7 -0 .6 -2 .0 -1 .5 -1 .6 -3 .0 -4 .3 11-82 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .4 -2 . 2 -2 .4 -0 .5 12-82 -0 .7 —0 . 6 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .8 -1 .8 -0 .5 —0 . 5 1 -8 3 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .3 -0 .3 -0 .2 2 -8 3 -0 .6 -0 .5 - 1 .2 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .2 -0 .3 -0 .3 3 -8 3 -0 .5 -0 .4 -1 .1 -0 .8 -0 .7 -1 . 0 -0 .9 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 c*> CD 1 -0 .1 -0 .0 -0 .6 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 . 5 -8 3 -0 .0 0 .1 -0 .4 -0 . 1 -0 .0 -0 .2 0 .0 0 .7 0 .9 6 -8 3 1 .0 1 .1 0 .7 1.1 1 .3 1 .3 1 .7 2 .4 2 .9 7 -8 3 1 .3 1 .4 I . 1 1 .5 1 .7 1 .8 2 .1 2 .8 3 .3 9 9L59 ÎL 1 .2 9 9.683 -1 .7 1 99 , 1 7 6 0 .6 9 9 , 136 0 .8 99,093 0 .1 99,103 -0 .5 -0 .2 99,06 3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .5 1 ,1 1 .4 2 .4 4 .4 1 .1 1 .4 2 .0 2 .8 1 .2 3 .4 4 .1 5 .3 7 .0 8 .3 15.9 3 .8 4 .5 5 .5 6.8 7 .6 10.9 99,103 9 9 tA > 8 . 9 9,557 1 00 .7 86 6. 1 1 01 ,2 85 8 -8 3 1 .4 1 .6 1.3 1 .6 1 .8 1 .9 2 .2 2 .9 3*3 3 .8 4 .3 5 .1 6 .1 6 .5 8 .3 4 .7 3 .3 9 -8 3 1 .6 1 .7 1 .5 1 .8 2 .0 2 .1 2 .4 3 .0 3 .4 3 .9 4 .3 5 .0 5 .8 6 .1 7 .4 4 .7 4 .0 4 *6 1 0-83 1.5 1 .6 1 .4 1 .7 1 .9 1 .9 2 .2 2 .8 3 .1 3 .4 3 .0 4 .4 4 .9 5 .0 5 .8 3 .4 2 .6 2 .2 -0 .2 3 -8 2 4 -S 2 Ç -8 ? 6— 82 7 -8 2 W -5 2 $ -6 2 1< ^ d 2 ÏI-S 2 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6—8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 IN IT IA L 1 Q Ji^ > 3 ___ 101 ,9 45 1 Q 1 *928 nônTh P A Y R O L L EMPLOY ME NT COMPOUNOEO A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE TERM INAL MONTH IN IT IA L 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 4 -8 2 -2 .4 5 -8 2 -1 .3 -0 .1 6 -8 2 -1 .9 -1 .6 -3 .2 7 -8 2 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .7 -4 .3 8 -8 2 -2 .5 -2 .5 -3 .3 -3 .4 -2 .5 9 -8 2 -2 .1 -2 .1 -2 .6 -2 .4 -1 .4 -0 .4 10-82 -2 .4 -2 .4 -2 .9 -2 .8 -2 .3 -2 .2 -3 .9 11-82 -2 .4 -2 .3 -2 .7 -2 .6 -2 .2 -2 .1 -3 .0 -2 .0 12-82 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .5 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .5 -1 .8 -1 .6 1 -8 3 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .0 -1 .2 -0 .2 0 .7 MONTH 12-82 1 -8 3 THO US AND S OF PERSONS 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 90,024 90,016 89,775 89,450 89,264 89,23 5 88,938 88,785 88,665 3 .0 8 8,886 2 -8 3 -1 .8 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .3 —0 . 6 -0 .2 0 .5 -1 .9 3 -8 3 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .4 - l . l -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .3 0 .1 0 .7 -0 .5 0*9 4 -8 3 -1 .1 —1 . 0 - l . l -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .3 0 .3 0 .8 1 .4 0 .9 2*4 5 -8 3 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .0 0 .2 0 .3 0 .9 1 .4 2 .1 1*8 3 .1 4 .2 4 .6 6 -8 3 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 0. 1 0 .5 0 .8 0 .9 1 .5 2 .1 2 .7 2*6 3 .8 4 .7 5 .2 5 .8 7 -8 3 -0 .0 0 .1 0 .1 0 .4 0 .8 1 .1 1 .2 1 .8 2 .3 2 .9 2* 9 3 .8 4 .6 4 .9 5 .0 4 .2 8 -8 3 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .0 0 .3 0 .5 0 .6 1 .1 1 .4 1 .8 1 .6 2 .2 2 .5 2 .2 1 .4 -0 .7 9 -8 3 0 .4 0 .6 0 .6 0 .9 1.2 1 .5 1 .7 2 .2 2 .7 3 .2 3 *2 3 *9 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4. 1 4 .1 10-83 0 .6 0 .8 0 .8 l. l 1.4 1 .7 1 .9 2 .4 2 .8 3 .3 3*3 4 .0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .2 4. 1 9 .3 4 .3 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-62 1 2 - 0 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 3 -8 2 88,745 88,814 3 .8 89,090 89,421 89,844 90,152 -5 .4 89,735 1 4.5 90 » 7 5 3 F 91 » 073F INITIAL MONTH P- P R TL IM IN AR Y Pr e p a r e d b y NOVEM BE R 4 , 2 federal 1983 reserve bank of s t . lo u is M ILLIONS 1 15 RATIO SCALE OF P ER SONS SEASONALLY 1 M ILLIONS ADJ USTED T l $ «5 * 105 OZ • \ */. TOU A L 7Z r 100 1 $ r 1 15 1 10 2? ^101.# v r -/. - 3 .7 Z 95 * K w 1 10 SCALE OF P ER SO N S ; % 1 «y EMPLOYMENT RATIO IZ 105 100 95 f * /. +2. OZ 9Z * 4 . OZ^ 90 1 90 - 3 .2 Z ri 85 t . ///Y ' 85 PAYI* O L L 80 75 70 80 $ * t 19 75 1976 Î 977 ? * 1 $ 1 9 78 ♦ 1 97 9 t ? t 1 98 0 1981 SOURCE : P E R C E N T A C E S A R E A M IW A L R A T E S LA TES T DATA P LO T T E O t Of CHAM6E fO R P E R IO D S $ $ t * if t * 1982 U .S .D E P A R T M E N T 5 S t 75 70 1983 O f LABO R IW IC A T E O . O C T O B E R P R E L IM IM A R Y PREPARED BY FED ER A L UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT R ES E R V E BANK O f ST. LO T IS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12. 0 11 . 11.0 10 . 1 0. 0 9. 9.0 8 . 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1975 1976 1977 19 7 8 1979 1 98 0 1981 SOURCE: PERCENT LATES T Of C IV IL IA N DATA P LO TTED » LA B O R U .S . 1982 1983 D EP A R TM EN T O f LA B O R fO R C E OCTOBER PREPARED BY fED ER A L RESERVE BANK O f S T . L O U IS 3 CONSUMER P R I C E I N O E X F OR A L L URBAN C ON S U M E R S ♦ S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * _______________________ CQ H PO UX OE D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A NGE________________________ TERM INAL MONTH IN IT IA L 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -6 2 8 -6 2 9 -8 2 10-62 11-62 1967*100- MONTH 1 2 —82 2— 83 - 3 - 6 3 1 -8 3 3*0 1 00 7 .9 1 3.0 6 -8 2 9 .8 13.4 13.8 7 -8 2 9 .2 1 1.3 10.5 7 .3 8 -8 2 8 .1 9 .4 8 .2 5 .5 3 .8 >0 i CD 6 .9 7 .7 6 .4 4 .1 2 .5 1 .2 6 .6 7 .2 6 .1 4 .3 3 .3 3 .1 5 .0 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 8 -fl3 7 -8 3 9 -ft3 3 .4 2 .5 2 .1 2 .5 0 .0 2 9 0 . CL 2 91 .7 2 92 .6 2 92 -9 2 94 .1 1 1-82 5 .8 6 .2 5 .1 4 .7 5 .0 3 .9 2 .3 1 .3 0 .7 0 .5 -1 .6 -3 .2 1 -8 3 4 .5 4 .6 3 .6 2 .3 1 .4 1 .0 0 .9 -0 .4 -0 .6 2 .1 2 -8 3 3 .8 3 .9 2 .9 1 .7 0 .9 0 .4 0 .2 -0 .9 -1 .2 -0 .2 3 -8 3 3 .6 3 .7 2 .8 1 .7 1 .0 0 .6 0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .5 4 —83 3 .9 4 .0 3 .2 2 .2 1 .6 1 .4 1 .4 0 .8 1 .0 5 —6 3 4 .1 4 .2 3 .5 2 .6 2 .1 2 .0 2 .1 1 .6 6 -8 3 4 .0 4 .1 3 .4 2 .6 2 .2 2 .0 2 .1 1 .7 7 -8 3 4 .0 4 .1 3 .5 2 .8 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 8 -8 3 4 .1 4 .2 3 .6 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 9 4 .1 2 93 -3 2 93 .2 0 .4 -0 .4 1 .6 2 9 3 .6 2 .1 2 .1 4 .4 7 .2 1 .9 3 .0 3 .2 5 .1 6 .9 6 *7 2 .0 2 .9 3 .0 4 .5 5 .4 4 ,6 2 .1 2 .4 3 .2 3 .4 4 .6 5 .3 4 .7 3 .7 4 .9 2 .4 2 .7 3 .4 3 .6 4 .7 5 .3 4 .9 4 .2 5 .1 _ .. 5* .2 _ 3 .0 3 .7 3 .9 4 .8 5 .4 5 .0 4 *6 5 .3 5 ,5 5 ,7 5 .1 4 .8 5 .3 5 .5 5 ,5 5 .3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 >0 » -2 .4 1 * I CD <*> 2 93 .8 4 .2 4 .3 3 .8 3 .1 2 .8 2 .6 2 .9 2 .7 10-83 4 .3 4 .3 3 .9 3 .3 3 .0 3 .0 3 .1 2 .9 3 .2 3 .9 4 .1 4 .9 5 .4 3 -6 2 4 -8 2 5 -6 2 6 -S 2 7 -8 2 8 -6 2 9 -9 2 1 0-82 11-82 12-82 1 -6 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 *OATA B E G IN N IN G ¿84*0 . 28 6 *3 — 12-82 CD 4 -6 3 .. 4 -8 2 O 1 <x> 3 -8 2 1983 I N C O R P O R A T E S R E N T A L EQ UIVALENCE IN IT IA L MEASURE. 2 95 .^_ 2 ,5 2 9 7 .5 2 9 8 .7 3 0 1 .4 3 Q i. 7 _ _ _ MONTH PREPAREO BY FEDERAL R E S E R V E BANK OF ST • LOUIS N O V E M B E R 23, 1983 pRuuuceR p r i c e i n d e x , f i n i s h e d ________________ C o h p o u n Q e o a n n u a l te r m in a l in it ia l goods rates of seasonally aojusted* c h a n g e _____________________________________________________________ 1967 « month 100 HONTH’ 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1 -83 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -83 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 1 » 7 -8 2 CD 6 -8 2 1 1 .3 5 -8 2 ro CD 4 -8 2 4 -8 2 CD 3 -8 2 2 77 .1 5 -8 2 0 .7 0 .0 6 —8 2 4 .6 6 .2 12.8 7 -8 2 4 .8 6 .1 9 .2 277. 1 2 79 .9 5 .7 2 81 .2 8 -8 2 5 .0 6 .0 8 .0 5 .7 5 .7 9 -8 2 4 .4 5 .0 6 .3 4 .2 3 .5 1 .3 10-82 4 .4 4 .9 5 .9 4 .2 3 .8 2 .8 11-82 4.8 5 .3 6 .2 4 .9 4.7 4 .3 5 .9 7 .4 12-82 4 .7 5 .1 5 .8 4 .7 4 .5 4 .2 5 .2 5 .6 3 .8 1 -8 3 2 .8 3 .0 3 .4 2. 1 .5 0 .7 0 .5 -0 .7 -4 .5 -1 2 .2 2 -0 3 2 .8 2 .9 3 .2 2*1 1 .6 0 .9 0 .9 0 .0 -2 .4 -5 .3 2 .1 3 -8 3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .6 1.5 1.0 0 .3 0 .1 -0 .7 -2 .6 —4 . 7 —0 . 6 -3 .3 -3 .5 -0 .4 -1 .7 1 2 82 .5 282 .8 4 .3 2 83 .8 2 8 5 .5 2 8 6 .4 2 83 .3 2 8 3 .8 2 8 3 .0 4 -8 3 2 . 2 .1 2 .3 1 .3 0 .9 0 .3 0 .1 -0 .6 -2 . 1 5 -8 3 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 1 .5 1.1 0 .6 0 .5 -0 .1 -1 .3 -2 .2 0 .4 -0 .1 1 .5 3 .0 6 -8 3 2 .4 2 .5 2 .7 1 .9 1 .5 1.1 1.1 0 .7 -0 .2 -0 .9 1 .5 1 .4 3 .0 4 .5 6 .1 7 -8 3 2 .3 2 .4 2 .5 1 .8 1.5 1 .1 l.l 0 .7 -0 .1 -0 .7 1 .4 1 .3 2 .5 3 .3 3 .4 0 .8 8 -8 3 2 .4 2 .5 2.7 2.0 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 1 .1 0 .4 0 .0 1 .9 1 .8 2 .9 3 .6 3 .9 2.8 9 -8 3 2 .4 2 .5 2 .6 2 .0 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 1 .2 0 .6 0 .2 1 .9 1 .9 2 .8 3 .3 3 .4 2 .5 3 .4 2 .1 10-83 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2 .1 1 .9 1 •6 1 .6 1 .4 0 .9 0 .6 2 .1 2 .1 2 .9 3 .4 3 .5 2 .9 3 .6 3 .0 3 .8 3 -82 4 -8 2 5 -82 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 6 -8 3 9 -8 3 1 ♦O A T A FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D TO R E F L E C T LATE 1 1 - 8 2 “ 12-132 I n it ia l R EPO RTING 0 .0 2 8 3 .0 2 8 3 .7 285. 1 2 8 5 .3 286 .4 4 .7 2 8 6 .9 2 8 7 .8 ^ T h PREPARED BY F e 0 6 R A T ^ E S E R V E ^ A N K ~ O F “ ST. X o u i s N O V E M B E R 10, 1983 4 _ 29e>.9 R A T IO SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 PRICES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T IO SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 CONSUNER PRICE IHOEX BEGINNING JANUARY 197« 1$ FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (CPl-U). CPl-W DATA BEGINNING 19«) INCORPORATE A RENTAL EO01 VALENCE MEASURE FOR HOHEOWWERSH1P COSTS. fERCENTACES ARE ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE FOR PERI0D3 INDICATED. LATES T DATA PLO TTEDt OCTOBER PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST^ LOflt R A T IO SCALE 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 PRODUCER P R I C E S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED r a t io scale 1 9 6 7 -1 0 0 PERCENTAGES ARE AJftWAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PER 106$ INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTli, OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAMK OF ST. LOUIS P R 0 0 O C ER P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER F OU OS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E O * _____________________ COMPOUNDED AN N UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE_____________________________ te r m in a l monT h IN IT IA L 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 4 -8 2 21 . 4 5 -8 2 12.0 6 -8 2 9 .8 4 .4 5 .6 7 -8 2 2 .1 -3 .6 -6 .9 -1 7 .9 8 -8 2 1 .9 -2 .5 -4 .3 -9 .0 0 .9 f-«2 0 .7 -3 .0 -4 .5 -7 .7 -2 .1 8 -8 2 1 0-82 11-82 12-82 1967 - I*ONTH 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -0 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 . 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 . 8 -8 3 100 00 » o* 5 -8 2 00 4 -8 2 O' 3 -8 2 261 .6 3 .3 2 62 .3 2 63 .5 2 5 9 . 2 ... .... 2 5 9 .4 2 5 0 .3 -5 .0 10-82 0 .5 -2 .6 -3 .7 -5 .9 -1 .5 -2 .7 -0 .5 11-82 0 .5 -2 .2 -3 .1 —4 . 8 -1 .2 -1 .8 -0 .2 2 58 .2 0 .0 2 5 8 .2 12-82 0 .7 -1 .6 -2 .3 -3 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 0 .$ 1 .4 2.$ 1 -83 0 .4 -1 .7 -2 .3 -3 .4 -0 .7 — 1 •0 0 .0 0 .2 0 .2 -2 .3 2 -8 3 1 .5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 l.l 1 .2 2 .4 3 .2 4 .2 5 .0 12. t 3 -8 3 1 .6 -0 .1 -0 .4 -1 .1 1 .3 1 .3 2 .4 3 .0 3 ,1 4*1 7 .4 4 -8 3 2 .4 1 .0 0 .8 0 .3 2 .6 2 .8 3 .9 4 .7 5 .7 6 .4 ♦.5 7 .$ 5 -8 3 1 .8 0 .5 0 .2 -0 .2 1 .7 1 .8 2 .7 3.1 3 .7 3 .« 5 .4 3 .1 3 .5 -5 .7 262 ^?. 6-8 3 1 .2 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .8 0 .9 0 .9 1 .6 1.* 2 .1 2 .0 2 .9 0 .6 0 .0 -6 .2 -6 .6 261 .4 7-83 0 .6 —0 . 6 -0 .9 -1 .4 0.2 0. 1 0 .6 0 .7 0 .8 0 .5 1 .0 -1 .2 -2 .1 -6 .8 -7 ,3 -8 .0 8 -8 3 0 .9 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .9 0 .5 0 .5 1 .0 1 .2 1 .3 1 .1 1 .6 -0 .2 -0 .6 -3 .9 -3 .3 -1 .6 5 .2 9 -8 3 1 .3 0 .2 0 .0 —0 . 3 1.1 1 .1 1 .6 1 .8 2 .0 1 .9 2 .4 1 .0 0 .8 -1 .6 —0 , 6 1 .5 6 .6 8 .1 10-8 3 1.9 0 .9 0 .8 0 .5 1 .9 1 .9 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 3 .6 2 .5 2 .6 0 .8 2 .2 4 .5 9,1 11. 1 14.1 5^82 6 -0 2 7 -è 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 n -§ 2 12-82 1 -83 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 3 -8 2 *OATa f o r FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D TO R E F L E C T LATE 2 5 8 .1 IN IT IA L REPO RTING 25«L r l _ 2 * 0 .9 261 *4 2 .3 2 -8 3 13.6 6— 8 3 2 59 .6 7 -8 3 2 60 .7 2 62 .4 265 .3 MONTH PRODUCE R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O O S , E X C L U D I N G FOOOS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D * _____________________________ COMPOUNDED AN N U a L R A T E S OF CHANGE_________________________________ TERMINAL KÖNTH IN IT IA L <N 00 1 4 -8 2 5-82 6— 82 4 -8 2 -3 .4 5 -8 2 -2 .3 - 1 .3 6 -8 2 3 .2 6 .6 1 5 .1 7 -8 2 5 .9 9 .1 14.8 14.4 7 -82 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1K ONTH 1967 » 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -83 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 100 2 8 0 .4 28 0 . 1 8 -8 2 6 .1 8 .6 12.1 1 0.6 6 .9 9 -8 2 5 .6 7 .4 9 .7 8 .0 4 .9 3 .0 10-82 5 .6 7 .2 9 .0 7 .5 5 .3 4 .5 6 .0 1 1-82 6 .1 7 .5 9 .0 7 .9 6 .3 6 .1 7 .7 9 .5 1 2-82 5 .9 7 .1 8 .3 7 .3 5 .9 5 .6 6 .5 6 .8 4 .2 1 -83 3 .6 4 .4 5 .1 3 .7 2 .0 1 .1 0 .6 -1 .1 -6 .0 2 -8 3 3 .1 3 .8 4 .4 3. 1 1 .6 0 .7 0 .2 -1 . 1 -4 .4 -8 .5 -1 .2 3 -8 3 2 .5 3 .0 3 .4 2 .2 0 .8 -0 . 1 —0 . 6 -1 .8 -4 .4 -7 .2 -2 .9 -4 .5 4 -8 3 1 .9 2 .4 2 .7 1 .6 0 .2 —0 . 6 -1 .1 -2 .2 -4 .4 —6 . 4 -3 .3 -4 .3 -4 ,1 5 -8 3 2 .2 2 .6 3 .0 1.9 0 .8 0. 1 -0 .3 -1 .1 -2 .8 -4 .1 -1 .1 -1 ,1 0 .6 5 ,6 6 -8 3 2 .7 3 .2 3 .5 2 .6 1,6 1. 1 0 .9 0 .3 -1 .0 -1 .8 l.l 1 .7 3 .8 8 .0 10.5 7 -8 3 2 .8 3 .2 3 .6 2 .7 1.8 1 .4 1.2 0. 7 -0 .4 -1 .0 1 .6 2 .2 3 .9 6 ,7 7 .3 4 .2 8 -8 3 2 .9 3 .3 3 .6 2 .9 2 .0 1 .6 1 .5 1. 1 0 .2 -0 .3 2 .0 2 .6 4 .0 6 .2 6 .4 4 .4 4 .6 9 -8 3 2 .8 3 .2 3 .4 2 .7 1 .9 1.5 1 .4 1 .0 0 .2 -0 .2 1 .8 2 .3 3 .4 5 .0 4 ,9 3 .1 2 ,5 0 ,4 10-83 2 .7 3 .0 3 .3 2 .6 1 .8 1 .5 1 .3 1 .0 0 .2 -0 .2 1 .7 2 .0 3 .0 4 .2 4 .0 2 .4 1.8 0 .4 0 .4 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6-8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 1 0-8z 11-02 1 00 2 83 .4 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -0 3 ♦D A T A F OR FOU R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D 288 .2 TO R E F L E C T 2 8 8 .9 LATE 2 9 0 .3 2 92 .5 2 93 .5 -1 5 .2 IN IT IA L REPO RTING 2 8 9 .5 2 8 9 .2 1-8 3 1HONTH 2 88 .1 2 8 7 .1 2 8 8 .4 2 9 0 .8 291 .8 2 9 2 .9 2 93 .0 2 93 .1 ; PREPARED 0 Y F60ERAL RESERVE NOVEMBER 10, 1983 6 . SANK OF ST. L O U I i . INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1967-100 SEASONALLY SCALE 1967-100 160 ADJ USTED 155 I 50 1 45 I 40 135 130 125 1 20 I 15 10 1 105 100 1 975 19 76 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE AWWJAL RATES OF CHAHCE FOR PERIODS IND ICAT ED . LATEST DATA PLOTTED» OCTOBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL p r o d u c t i o n CONPOUNDtD ANNUAL RATÉS OF CKANGfc TERMINAL______________ _________________________________ ________ IN IT IA L HQNTn_________________ ___ 1967 * 100 W j NT f-f 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 3 -6 2 6 -8 2 4 -6 2 -1 2 .0 5—82 -1 0 .1 6 -6 2 -8 .2 -6 .3 —4 . 2 7 -8 2 —6 . 0 -3 .9 -1 .7 0 .9 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-62 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -6 3 5 -6 3 6— 83 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 1 40 .2 -8 .2 1 3 9 .2 1 38 .7 138 .8 8 -8 2 -5 .3 -3 ,8 -2 .3 -1 .3 -3 .4 9—8 2 -6 .1 -4 .9 -4 .0 -4 . 0 —6 . 3 -9 .1 1 3 6 .4 1 37 .3 10-82 -7 .1 -6 .3 -5 .9 —6 . 3 -6 .6 -1 1 .1 -1 3 .1 11-82 -7 .1 -6 .4 -6 .1 -6 .4 -8 .2 -9 .7 -1 0 .0 -6 .8 12-82 -6 .1 -5 .3 -4 .9 -5 .0 -6 .1 —6 . 8 -6 .0 -2 .2 1 -8 3 —3 .6 -2 .7 -1 .9 -1 .6 -2 .0 -1 .7 0 .2 5. 1 2 -6 3 -2 .8 -1 .8 - l . l -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .4 1 .4 5 .4 9.8 1 3.6 6 .3 3 -8 3 -1 .2 -0 .2 0 .7 1.3 1 .3 2 .0 4 .0 7 .8 11.8 1 5.0 11.9 17.8 4 -8 3 0 .6 1 .7 2 .7 3 .4 3 .7 4 .6 6 .7 1 0.4 14.3 17.3 1 6.0 2 1.2 2 4.7 3 -8 3 1 .6 2 .8 3 .7 4 .5 4 .9 5 .8 7 .9 1 1.2 1 4.6 1 7.1 16.1 19.5 2 0 .4 1 3 5 .7 134’. 9 2 .7 1 1.6 1 3 5 .2 21.4 1 3 7 .4 138 .1 1 40 .0 1 4 2 .6 14* .4 16.2 6 -8 3 2 .6 3 .8 4 .8 5 .6 6 .0 7 .0 8 .9 12.1 15.1 1 7.3 16.4 1 9. 1 1 9.6 1 7.1 17.9 7 -8 3 4 .2 5 .4 6 .4 7 .3 7 .9 8 .9 1 0.9 1 4.0 16.9 19.1 1 8.7 2 1.4 2 2.3 2 1 .5 24.1 3 0.7 8 -8 3 4 .9 6 .1 7 .1 8 .0 8 .5 9 .6 1 1.5 14.3 16.9 1 8.9 1 8.5 2 0.7 2 1 .2 20.4 21.8 2 3.8 1 7.3 9 -8 3 5 .3 6 .7 7 .7 8 .5 9 .1 10.1 1 1.9 14.5 1 6.9 1 8.5 18.2 20.0 2 0.4 19.5 2 0.4 21.2 16.7 16. 1 10-8 3 5 .7 6 .8 7 .8 8 .6 9 .1 10.1 1 1.7 14.1 16.2 17.6 1 7.2 1 8.7 18.8 17.8 18.2 18.2 14.3 12.9 9 .8 5—82 6^ 82 11-82 12 -8 ? 1 -8 3 Z -W 3 '■■3-8 3 7— 83 8 -8 3 9 -6 3 3*82 c -c z 10—62 “ — IN IT IA L P ^ P R C l IH IN A K Y 1 4 6 .4 1 49 .7 1 51.7 1 5 3 . 6P 1 5 4 . 8P HDNTH “ P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E NUVfcMttER 1 5 , 1903 7 tTAfiKT l ) f ST. ld U I PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS m o n th ly OF DOLLARS totals I N CO ME at SEAS O N ALLY an nual RATIO rates TRILLION S A D JU S TE D OF SCALE DOLLARS 2.9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 SOURCE: PERC ENT AGE S ARE ANNUAL LATEST DAT A P L O T T E D , RA TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S U .S . 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN DIC A TE D . OCTOBER P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDER AL RES ERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS P E R S O N A L INCO ME COMPOUNDED A NN UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH" IN IT IA L 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 5 -8 2 7 .9 9 .3 6 -8 2 5 .9 5 .7 7 -8 2 6.5 6 .6 5.2 8 .4 8 -8 2 4 .9 4 .5 2 .9 3 .4 -1 .4 9-8 2 4 .9 4 .6 3 .5 3 .9 1 .8 5.1 10-82 5 .6 5 .5 4 .7 5 .4 4 .4 7 .4 9 .8 11-82 5.8 5 .7 5 .1 5 .7 5 .1 7 .4 8 .5 7 .2 1 7 -8 2 <N 6 -8 2 (SI 00 5 -8 2 1 4 -8 2 6 .4 00 3 -8 2 4-8 2 BILLIONS OF OOLLARS ANNUAL . R A T t S MONTH 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 .Îh S.tS). 2 2 .1 589.8 2, 596.7 2. 597 .4 . I t 617.8 ..... 5 .8 5.7 5.2 5 .7 5 .2 6 .9 7 .5 6 .4 5 .6 1-83 5 .6 5.5 5 .0 5 .4 4 .9 6 .2 6 .5 5 .4 4 .5 3 .5 2 -8 3 4 .9 4 .8 4 .3 4 .6 4 .1 5 .0 5 .0 3 .8 2 .7 1 .3 -0 .9 2» 6 5 2 . 6 5 .3 5 .2 4 .8 5 .1 4 .7 5 .6 5 .7 4 .9 4 .3 3 .9 4 .0 9 .2 5 .6 5 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .1 6 .0 6 .1 5 .5 5 .2 5 .1 5 .6 9 .0 8 .8 5 -8 3 6 .2 6 .2 5 .9 6 .2 6 .0 6 .9 7 .1 6 .7 6 .7 6 .9 7 .7 1 0.8 1 1.6 1 4.4 6 -8 3 6 .2 6 .1 5 .9 6 .2 6 .0 6 .8 7 .0 6 .6 6 .6 6 .7 7 .4 9 .6 9 .7 10. 1 6 .0 7 -8 3 6 .2 6 .2 5 .9 6 .2 6 .1 6 .8 7 .0 6 .6 6 .6 6 .7 7 .3 9 .0 8 .9 8 .9 6 .3 6 .6 6 .1 6 .0 5 .8 6 .1 5 .9 6 .6 6 .7 6 .4 6 .3 6 .4 6 .8 8 .2 8 .0 7 .7 5.6 5 .4 9 -8 3 6 .5 6 .5 6 .3 6 .6 6 .5 7 .1 7 .3 7 .0 7 .0 7 .2 7 .6 8 .9 8 .9 8 .9 7 ,6 8 .1 8 .8 1 3.6 10-83 6 .9 6 .9 6 .8 7 .1 7 .0 7 .6 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 7 .9 8 .4 9 .7 9 .7 9 .9 9 .0 9 .8 1 0.9 1 4.3 15.1 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9— 82 10—6 2 11-82 1 2-82 1 -6 3 2 -8 3 3 -6 3 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 CD 3 -8 3 1 2.,6 50 .5 4 -8 3 CD 633.1 . 2 t6 4 5 .Q 12-82 IN IT IA L P- . 568.0 2. 5 7 2 . 5 . ¿ « . 6 7 0 . 1 _____ 2 1, 6 8 9 . 0 ----------- 2, 7 19 ,3 2 . ,73 2.6 4 .2 2, .74 7.1 2, 7 5 6 .6 2.786. 1 2 , ,8 18.9r> MONTH PR ELIM IN A R Y PR EPA R ED NOVEMBER 8 BY FE D E R A L 2 1 . 1983 RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLION S 19 7 5 RATIO OF D O L L A R S 1976 SEASONALLY 1 977 1 978 B ILLION S ADJ USTE D 1 979 1980 SOURCEt 1981 U.S . OF 1982 SCALE DOLLARS 1983 OEPARTMEHT OF COWERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS IND ICA TE D. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. R E T A I L SALES COMPGUNUEO A N N U A L R A T E S IN IT IA L t e r m in a l OF CHAN GE ____ LOU IS ____ MONTH m il l io n s MONTH 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 * -8 2 11.0 5 -8 2 2 3.3 3 6 .9 6 -8 2 4 .2 0 .9 -2 5 .6 7 -8 2 6 .2 4 .6 -8 .6 12.4 8 -8 2 3 .8 2 .1 -7 .5 3 .2 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 1 2-82 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 3— 63 4 -8 3 5 -8 3 6 -8 3 7 -8 3 8 -8 3 9 -8 3 88,468 9 0,813 88,603 8 9,469 89,069 -5 .2 9 -6 2 5 .1 3 .9 -3 .0 6 .0 2 .9 1 1.7 10-6 2 6 .3 5 .6 0 .2 8 .0 6 .6 1 3.0 1 4.3 1 i —82 8 .3 7 .9 3 .7 1 0.9 10.5 16.3 1 8.6 23.1 12-82 7 .3 6 .8 3 .1 8 .9 8 .2 11.9 11.9 1 0.7 -0 .4 1 -8 3 6 .3 5 .8 2 .5 7 .2 6 .4 8 .9 8 .2 6 .3 -1 .3 -2 .1 2 -6 3 4 .3 3 .7 0 .5 4 .4 3 .3 4 .8 3 .4 0 .9 -5 .6 -6 .1 89,897 90,90 5 9 2,492 92,459 9 2,295 -1 3 .8 9 1,164 3 -8 3 6 .3 5 .9 3 .2 7. 1 6 .4 8 .2 7 .6 6 .3 2 .5 3 .5 6 .5 31.4 4 -8 3 8 .1 7 .9 5 .6 9 .3 9 .0 10.9 1 0.8 10.2 7 .8 1 0.0 14.4 31.7 32.1 8 .4 1 2.2 12.1 14.3 1 4.6 1 4.6 1 3.3 1 6.2 2 1.3 35.9 3 8.2 4 4 .7 . 93,26 3 9 5,449 5 -6 3 1 0.4 1 0.4 6 -6 3 1 0.3 1 0.3 8 .5 11.9 1 1.9 1 3.8 1 4.0 1 3.9 1 2.7 1 5.1 18.8 2 8 .7 27.9 25.8 9 .4 7 -8 3 9 .9 9 .9 8 .2 11.3 1 1.2 1 2.9 1 3.0 12.6 1 1.6 1 3 .4 16.3 2 3.4 2 1 .5 1 8.2 6 .8 4 .3 9 .6 9 .2 7 .7 8 .8 10.4 15.1 12.1 7 .6 -2 .5 -6 .0 9 8,431 99,173 9 9,521 8 -6 3 8 .0 7 .8 6 .1 8 .8 8 .6 9 .8 9 -8 3 8 .5 8 .3 6 .8 9 .4 ° »2 10.4 10.2 9 .9 8 .6 9 .7 1 1.3 1 5.4 12 . 9 9 .5 2 .1 -0 .2 -2 .4 1 7.3 10-83 8 .8 8 .6 7 .2 9 .6 9 .5 10.6 1 0.5 10.2 9 .1 10.1 11.5 1 5.2 13.0 10.1 4 .3 3 .1 2 .7 1 5.5 13.7 'S-B2 4 -8 2 5 -8 2 6 -8 2 ' T - B Z 8 -8 2 <5-82 10-B? ~2 -8 3 3 -8 3 4 -5 3 ' 5 -5 3 " 6 -8 3 7 -« 8 -8 3" 9=ST 1 1 -B Z 1 2 -8 2 IN IT IA L PE- of DOLLAR“ * 3 -6 2 9 7,801 -1 8 .9 99,11 1 P 1 0 0 , 175t 1HQNTrf " P R E L IM IN A R Y ESTIM ATED P R E P A R E D BY FEtffTRAX ft E T E r VE NO VEMBER 10, r 1983 9 bank ÒF S T. l &j T* " H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T I O N , B U S I N E S S S E C TO R CL)MPQU*DfcO A N N U A L R A T E S QF CHAN Gb T6K MI ? A L _____________________________ - __________________________________________I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________________________________ 1977 - q u ar ts 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 1 -7 9 11.1 2 -7 9 9 .9 3 -7 9 1 0.0 9^4 10.2 4 -7 9 9 .6 9. 1 9 .4 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 0 00 1 4 -7 8 4 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 3 -6 1 4 -Ö 1 1 -8 2 2 -6 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 IÛÛ 2 -8 3 1 -8 3 115 -7 8 .6 1 1 -8 0 9 .9 9 .6 1 0.0 9 .9 U .2 2 -6 0 10.3 10.1 1 0.5 1 0.5 11.5 11*9 3 -6 0 10.2 ? 1 0.3 10.3 1 0.9 1 0.7 9 .6 4 -6 0 10.1 9 .9 1 0.2 10.2 1 0.6 10.4 9 .6 9 .7 1 -6 1 1 0.2 10.1 10.3 1 0.4 10.7 1 0.6 1 0.2 1 0.5 11*3 2 -8 1 9 .9 9 .6 1 0.0 9 .9 1 0.2 1 0.0 9 .5 9 .4 9 .3 7 .4 3 -8 1 9 .9 9 .8 9 .9 9 .9 10.1 9 .9 9 .5 9 .5 9 .4 8 .5 9 .6 4 -8 1 9 .7 9 .6 9 .^ 9 .6 9 .8 9 .6 9 .2 9.1 7 .0 8 .2 8*6 7 .6 8*5 8 .9 8 .6 9 .5 ° s 8 .6 17 6 - 3 1 29 -9 1 3? - <) 136. a 1 3 9 .7 _____ 145 . 5 1 4 6 .? 1 -8 2 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .2 2 -6 2 9 .4 9 .3 9 .4 9 .3 9 .4 9 .2 ___8 . 8 8 .7 8 .6 8jlZ 7 .8 7 .8 6 .2 3 -8 2 9 .3 9 .1 9 .2 9 .1 9 .2 9 .0 8 .6 8*5 8 .4 7 ,9 8*0 7 *6 7 .5 6 .6 6 .9 4 -6 2 9 .1 ___8 . 9 8 .9 8 .8 8 .9 8 .7 8 .3 8 .2 8 .0 7 .6 7*6 7 *2 7 .1 6 .3 6 .3 5 .7 151 . 6 1 5 3 .9 1 56.5 _______________ 1 5 8 . 7 1 -8 3 8 .8 8 .7 8 .7 8 .6 8 .6 8 .4 8 .0 7 .9 7 .7 7 .3 7 .2 6 .8 6 .7 6 .0 5 .4 5 .1 2 -8 3 8 .5 8 .4 8 .4 8 .2 8 .2 8 .0 7 .7 7 .5 7 .3 6 .8 6 .8 6* 4 . 6 ,2 5*5 5*3 4 .8 4 .3 3 .5 3 -8 3 8 .4 8 .2 8 .2 6 .1 8 .0 7 .8 7 .5 7 .3 7 .1 6 .7 6 .6 6 .3 6 .1 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 4 .7 4 .5 5 .5 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -6 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -81 3 -8 1 4 -81 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 IN IT IA L 160 . 7 1 6 2 .1 1 6 4 .3 k QUAKTfcR F k ElT S T N a S Y OUTPUT PER HOUR OF A L L PER S ON S * B U S I N E S S CO MP OU ND tO IANN UAL R A T E S OF CHANGÉ: TERM INAL Q U A R T ER IN IT IA L 4 -7 8 1—T 9 -1 .6 2 -7 9 -2 .0 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 SECTOR QUARTER 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 1977 * 100 3 -8 1 4 -e i 1 -8 2 2 -6 2 3 -9 2 4 -9 2 1 -9 3 - 2 - S 2 . ..... .100*4 _______ -2 .4 3 -7 9 -2 .0 -2 .2 -2 .0 4 -7 9 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .4 -0 .8 1 -8 0 -1 .2 -1 .1 -0 .7 0 .0 0 .8 99*3^ 9 9.1 9 9* 3 . 2 -6 0 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .1 -1 .2 -3 .2 3 -8 0 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4 —0 . 3 -0 .8 1 .6 4 -6 0 -0 .8 -0 .7 —0 . 5 -0 .2 0 .0 -0 .3 1 .2 0 .8 1 -6 1 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .4 0 .8 1 .1 1 .2 2 .7 3 .3 5.8 2 -6 1 0 .1 0 .3 0 .6 1 .0 1 .3 1 .4 2 .6 3 .0 4 .1 2 .4 3 -6 1 0 .5 0 .8 1 .1 1 .5 1 .8 2 .0 3 .1 3 .4 4 .3 3 .6 4 .8 9 0.5 98* 9 99*1 101*1 10 2*3 4 -8 1 0 .1 0 .3 0 .6 0 .8 1 .1 1 .1 1 .8 1 .9 2 .1 0 .9 0 *2 -4 .2 1 -6 2 0 .1 0 .2 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 0 .9 1 .5 1 .5 1 .6 0 .6 oi * © -2 .3 -0 .4 2 -8 2 -0 .0 0 .1 0 .3 0 .5 0 .6 0 .6 1 .1 1 .0 1 .1 0 .2 -2 .1 - 1 *0 -1* 6 -o ti 0 *0 U b l . l 2 .4 -0 .4 - 101*1 3 -6 2 0 .1 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .7 0 .7 1 .2 1 .1 1 .1 0*4 0 .0 -1 * 2 _ 0 .3 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 0 .9 0 .9 1 .4 1 .3 1 .4 0 .8 0 .5 -0 .3 1 -6 3 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 1 .0 l. l 1 .5 1 .4 1 .5 1 .0 0 .8 0 .1 1 .0 1 .4 2 .4 2 .8 2 .4 2 -6 3 0 .7 0 .8 1 .0 1 .2 1 .3 1 .4 1 .8 1 .6 1 .9 1 .4 1.3 0*8 J*7 2*1 3*1 3*6 3 .8 5 .2 3 -6 3 0 .9 1 .0 1 .2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .6 2 .0 2 .0 2 .1 1 .8 1 .7 1 .3 2 .1 2 .6 3 .4 3 ,9 4*1 4^9 4 .7 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4—7 9 1— 6o 2 -8 0 3 -6 0 4 -6 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -6 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -6 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 P R E P AR£Ô~BY OCTOBER 2 7, F E 1983 IN IT IA L 0 .7 101 .2 _______ 1 0 0 . 7 ____ 4 -6 2 101 .1 3 .2 1 01 .9 1 0 2 * 5 _____ 1 0 3 .8 1 05 .Or QUARTER P - P R t L I r t INARŸ __ 1 0 0 .5 10 O ^ SANK OF S T . L O U Ïs T PRODUCT I VI T Y, RATIO COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 198 1 S O UR C Ei PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED. DATA A NNUA L RATES OF 3RD Q U AR T E R CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED U.S. 1982 1983 D E P A RT M EN T OF LA BO R ST. LOUIS INDICATED. PRELIUINARY P RE PA R ED BY F E D E R A L R E SE R VE BANK OF U N I T L a BUR C O S T S , B U S I N E S S S EC TO R ________________________________________________________________ C U H P UU NO LO ANN UAL K A T E S OF C H A N G c _________ _____ ______________________ ___ T E R M I N A L ____________________ ____________________ _________ ____________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R_______________________________________________________________________ 1977 QUARTtR 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 * -7 9 1~80 2 -8 0 3 -8 Q 4 -9 0 1 -9 1 2~81 3~81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 - 8 2 ___±=3.Z___ L r 8 3 ___ 1 -7 9 12.8 2 -7 9 11.8 1 0.9 3 -7 9 1 2.0 11.6 1 2.4 4 -7 9 1 1.4 1 0.9 1 1.0 9 .6 1 -8 0 11.3 1 0.9 1 0.9 1 0.1 1 14 ,8 1 1 7 . 8 ____ \? \ . V 10.7 1 2 7 .3 2 -8 0 11.9 11.7 1 2.0 11.8 1 3.0 15.3 3 -8 0 1 1.3 11.1 11.1 1 0.8 1 1.2 1 1.5 7 .8 4 -8 0 11.0 1 0.7 10.7 10.4 1 0.6 10.5 8 .2 1 -8 1 10.3 1 0.0 9 .9 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 7 .2 7 .0 5 .4 2 -8 1 9 .8 9 .5 9 .3 8 .8 8 .7 8 .3 6 .7 6 .3 5.2 5 .0 1 3 1 -9 1 34 .4 8 .6 137 - ? 1 3 9 .0 1 40 .7 3 -8 1 9 .3 9 .0 8 .8 8 .3 8 .1 7 .7 6 .3 5 .9 5 .0 4 .8 4 -8 1 9 .5 9 .2 9 .1 8 .7 8 .6 8 .3 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 7 .2 8 ,3 1 2.0 1 -8 2 9 .6 9 .3 9 .2 8 .8 8 .8 8 .5 7 .6 7 .5 7 .3 7 .8 8 .8 11.0 9 .9 2 -8 2 9 .5 9 .2 9 .1 8 .8 8 .7 8 .5 7 .7 7 .6 7 .5 7 .9 8 .7 10,1 9 ,1 3 -8 2 9 .2 8 .9 8 .7 8 .4 8 .3 8 .1 7 .3 7 .3 7 .1 7 ,4 7 ,9 8 ,7 7 ,6 6 .5 4 .8 4 -8 2 8 .7 8 .4 8 .3 8 .0 7 .8 7 .6 6 .8 6 .7 6 .5 6 .7 6 .9 7 ,4 6 .3 5 ,1 3 ,6 2 .3 5 .7 4 ,7 3 ,5 2 ,9 3*4 0 .8 -1 .8 0*6 - 0 . 5 ____ Q *3___ 4 .6 1 4 2 .3 1 4 6 .4 1 4 9 .9 8 ,2 _ 1 -8 3 8 .4 8 .1 7 .9 7 .6 7 .5 7 .2 6 .5 6 .4 6 .1 6 .2 6 .4 6 .7 7 .8 7 .5 7 .3 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 5 .8 5 .6 5 .3 5 .3 5 ,4 5 .5 4 .4 3 ,3 2 .2 1 .3 3 -6 3 7 .4 7 .1 6 .9 6 .6 6 .4 6. 1 5 .4 5 .2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 4 .9 3 ,9 2 ,9 1 ,9 1*2 4—79 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1- 8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 IN IT IA L 152*9 1 5 4 . 7_ 2 -6 3 P- 100 1 5 5 .6 ____ 4 -8 2 JL5i>*9 1 -8 3 156 .2 2 -8 3 QUARTER P R tL lM lN A K Y 11 PREPARED BY FEOfcRAL RESERVE BANK UF ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 2 7 , 1983 .. G#OSS NATIONAL. PRODUCT IN CURRENT OOU.ARS COHPQUNQED ANNUAL KATES O f CHANGE TERMINAL <WAUTfctf~ IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-78 1-79 1-7 9 9 .8 2 -7 9 8 .6 7 .5 2-79 3—79 4 -79 1-80 2-00 3-eo 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 3-82 2-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 2 *3 3 5 .5 2 , 3 7 7 .9 3 -7 9 10.2 1 0.5 1 3.6 4 -7 9 9 .7 9 .7 10.8 2 *4 5 4 .8 2 * 50 2 .9 8 .1 1 -8 0 10.1 10.2 1 1.1 9 .9 11.7 2 -8 0 8 .5 8 .3 8 .4 6 .8 6 .2 0 .9 3 -* 0 8 .7 8 .5 8 .7 7 .5 7 .3 5 .2 9 .7 4— P 0 9.5 9 .5 9.6 9. 1 9 .3 8 .5 12.6 15.5 1 -8 1 10.7 10.8 11.3 10.9 11.5 11.4 15.2 18.0 20.5 2-31 10.3 1 0.3 10.7 10.3 10.6 10.4 12.9 1 4.0 13.3 6 .6 3 -8 1 10.5 10.6 11.0 1 0.6 1 1.0 1 0,9 13.0 13.9 13.3 9 .9 13.3 4-8 1 9,o 10.0 10.2 9 .8 1 0.1 9 .8 11.4 11.7 1 0 .8 7 .8 8 .4 3 .7 1 — 82 9.C 9.0 9 .1 8 .7 8 .7 8 .4 9 .5 9 .4 8.3 5 .4 5 .0 1 .1 -1 .4 2-82 8 .9 8.8 8.9 8 .5 8 .5 8 .2 9 .1 9 .0 8 .0 5 .6 5 .4 2 .9 2 .5 6 .6 3-8 2 8 .4 8 .3 8 .4 8 .0 8 .0 7 .6 8 .4 8 .2 7 .2 5 .1 4 .9 2 .9 2 .6 4 .6 2 ,7 4-82 8.0 7 .9 8 .0 7 .5 7 .5 7. 1 7 .8 7 .6 6.6 4 .8 4 .5 2 .8 2 .6 3 .9 2 .6 2 ,5 1-83 8.1 7 .9 8 .0 7 .6 7 .6 7 .2 7 .8 7 .6 6.8 5 .2 5 .0 3 .7 3 .7 5 .0 4 .4 5 .3 8 .2 2-83 8.3 8.3 8 .3 8 .0 8 .0 7 .7 8 .3 8. 7 .4 6. 1 6 .0 5 .0 5 .2 6 .6 7 .9 1 0.7 13.3 3-83 d .*> 8 .4 8 .5 8 .2 8 .2 7 .9 8.5 8 .4 7.8 6 .6 6 .6 5 .7 6 .0 7 .3 7 .5 8 .7 10.9 12.3 11.2 1 -7 7 2 -7 V 3 -7 9 4^79 ' 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4-8 0 1 -8 1 2 -81 3-91 4 -8 1 1-S 2 2 -8 2 5-« 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 4- B ILLIO N S O f DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2 , 5 7 2 .9 2 , 578 ,8 2 , 639,1 1 2 , 7 3 6 ,0 2 ,8 i^ > ,6 2 ,9 1 2 ,5 3 ,0 0 4 .9 3 ,0 3 2 .2 3 , 021. 4 3 ,0 7 0 .2 3 , 0 9 0 .7 3 , 1 0 9 .6 3 , 1 71 .5 3 ,2 7 2 .0 3 ,3 6 0 .3 I M T I a L ¿UART^' GROSS N A T I O N A L PR OO UC T I N COMPOUNDED A NN UA L R A T E S Y t K H IN A L w U i& T tT T 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 1 .1 2 -7 9 0 .1 -0 .9 3 -7 9 1 .7 1 .9 4 -7 9 1 .4 1 .5 2 .8 0 .7 I -8 0 1 .5 1 .6 2 .5 1 .3 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 1 -8 1 -• 2 - 8 1 4 -8 0 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 .4-62 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 1 ,4 7 2 .6 1 ,4 6 9 .2 4 .8 ____ 1 ,4 9 6 .4 2 -8 0 -0 .3 —0 . 6 -0 .5 -2 .3 -3 .7 -9 .0 3 -8 0 -0 .2 —0 . 4 -0 .3 -1 .5 -2 .2 -4 .3 0 .8 4 -8 0 0 .3 0 .2 0 ,4 -0 .5 -0 .8 -1 .6 2 .3 3 .8 1 -8 1 1 .3 I .3 1 .6 1 .1 1 .1 0 .9 4 .5 6 .4 9.0 2 -8 I 1.2 1 .2 1 .5 1.0 1 .0 0 .9 3 .5 4 .4 4 .7 0 .6 3 -8 1 1 .4 1 .4 1.7 1 .3 1 .4 1 .3 3 .5 4 .2 4.3 2 .1 3 .6 4 -8 I 0 .9 0 .8 1 .0 0 .6 0 .6 0 .4 2 .1 2 .3 2.0 -0 .3 -0 .7 -0 .0 1 .4 6 1 .4 1 ,4 6 4 .2 1 *4 77 ,9 1 ,5 1 0 ,1 1*5 12 ,5 1 *525,8 1 *5 06 ,9 -4 .9 1 -8 2 0 .4 0 .3 0 .4 -0 .1 -0 .4 1 .0 1 .0 0.4 -1 .6 -2 .3 -5 .2 -5 .5 2 -8 2 0 .4 0 .3 0 .5 0. 1 0 .0 -0 .2 1 .0 1 .0 0 ,5 - l. l -1 .5 -3 .2 -2 .3 3 -8 2 0.3 0 .3 0 .3 -0 . 0 -0 .1 -0 .3 0 .7 0 .7 0 ,3 -1 .1 -1 .4 -2 .6 - 1 .9 4 -8 2 0.2 0. 1 0 .2 -0 . 1 -0 .2 -0 .4 0 .5 0 .5 0 .1 -1 -1 .4 -2 .4 -1 .7 1 -8 3 C. 3 0 .3 0 .4 0. 1 0 .0 -0 .1 0 .7 0 .7 0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .6 -0 .9 2 -8 3 0 .8 0 .8 0 .9 0 .7 0 .7 0 .6 1 .4 1.5 1 .3 0. 4 0 .4 -0 .0 0 .8 2 .1 3 -8 3 1 .2 1 .2 1 .3 1 .1 l.l 1 .1 1 .9 2 .0 1 .8 1 .1 1 .2 0 .9 I .8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 ^ -8 0 4 -8 0 1-81 3 -9 1 4 -81 1 *480 . 7 -1 .3 2 .6 2 .4 3 .6 6 .1 9 .7 3 .0 3 .4 4 .6 6 .6 8 .7 1 -S 2 2 -6 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 U) 0 .6 o O o 1 • 1 x i ~ 0 m 1 1 *4 89 ,3 1 *4 85 ,7 1 in . 1 *4 8 5 ,8 0 .9 © 1 *4 86 ,6 1 ,4 8 9 ,3 1 .9 IS) 4 -7 8 B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS A N N U AL R A T E S 'Q U A RT ER IN IT IA L 1 -7 9 1972 D O L L A R S OF CHANGE 1 *4 9 0 .1 1 -6 3 1*5 25 .1 7 .7 1 *5 5 3 .6 2 -8 3 OOAftTER ^ a s x c t b y F ? o E f t ~ * L n s E T F s :v e NOVEMBER 22* 1983 pr 12 sank u £ St . lo u IS GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT RATI O SCALE 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES LATEST ARE ANNUAL DATA P L O T T E D , RATI O QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R A T E S OF C H A N 6 E F O R P E R I O D S 3RD Q U A R T E R U.S. 1982 1983 D E P A R TM E N T OF C OM ME R C E INDICATED. pR£pARE0 13 1981 0y RESERVE ^ S C AL E op $T_ ^ GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 19 75 SCALE 1972-100 1976 19 77 *AS USED IN NATIONAL 1978 197 9 INCOME ACCOUNTS 198 0 1981 SOURCE: U.S . 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMENCE PERCENTAGES ARE AKNUA1 RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IND ICAT ED . LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. IM P L IC IT P R IC fc D E F L A T O R FUR GROS S N A T I O N A L COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S Ot- CHANGE o 00 » T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ________ QUa RTï A 1 -7 9 4 -7 8 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 3 -8 0 1 -7 9 8 .6 2 -7 9 8 .5 PROOUCT ______ 4 -8 1 LOU IS 1 -8 2 ___________ 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1972 * 1 -8 3 100 2 -8 3 158 .6 0 8 .5 1 61 .8 5 3 -7 9 8 .4 8 .4 8 .3 4 -7 9 8 .2 8 .0 7 .8 7 .3 1 -8 0 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 9 .6 2 -8 0 8 .9 8 .9 9 .0 9 .3 10.3 3 -8 0 8 .9 8 .9 9 .0 9 .2 9 .8 9 .9 8 .8 4 -8 0 9 .2 9 .2 9 .4 9 .6 1 0.2 1 0.4 10.1 11.3 1 -8 1 9 .3 9 .4 9 .5 9 .7 1 0.2 1 0.4 10.2 10.9 2 -8 1 9 .0 9 .0 9 .1 9 .2 9 .5 9 .5 9 .1 9 .2 8 .2 5 .9 3 -8 1 9 .0 9 .0 9 .1 9 .2 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 9 .3 8 .6 7 .6 9 .4 4 -8 1 9 .0 9 .0 9. 1 9 .2 9 .4 9 .4 9 .1 9 .2 8.7 8 .1 9 .2 9 .0 1 -8 2 8 .6 8 .6 8 .7 8 .7 8 .8 8 .8 8 .4 8 .4 7 .8 7 .1 7 .5 6 .6 2 -8 2 8 .4 ' 8 .4 6 .4 8 .4 8 .5 8 .4 8 .1 8 .0 7.4 6 .8 7 .1 6 .3 5 .0 5 .6 3 -8 2 8 .1 8 .1 8 .0 8 .0 8 .1 7 .9 7 .6 7 .4 6 .9 6 .3 6 .4 5 .6 4 .5 4 .6 3 .7 4 -8 2 7 .8 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .2 7 .0 6 .5 5 .9 6 .0 5 .3 4 .4 4 .4 3 .8 1 -8 3 7 .7 7 .6 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 7 .4 7 .1 6 .9 6 .4 5 .9 5 .9 5 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4 .3 4 .7 5 .5 2 -8 3 7 .4 7 .4 7 .3 7 .2 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 .5 6 .1 5 .6 5 .6 5 .0 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 4 .4 3 .3 3 -8 3 7 .2 7 .1 7. 1 7 .0 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 6 .3 5 .8 5 .4 5 .3 4 .8 4 .2 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 3 .3 3 .3 4 - /B l - /V 3— 7 V 4— 79 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -6 C 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 > -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 ^5 -8 2 4 -5 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 2- 1 65 .1 2 1 68 .0 5 1 7 1 .9 4 1 0.9 1 76 .4 6 1 80 .2 4 1 8 5 .1 3 10.5 1 89 .8 3 IN IT IA L 1 9 2 .5 6 1 9 6 .9 4 2 01 .2 2 4 .3 2 0 3 .3 6 2 06 .1 5 2 08 .0 3 3 .8 2 1 0 .0 0 2 12 .83 2 1 4 .5 5 2 1 6 .2 9 ÛUÀRTtfc “PKEPTfRFCTÏŸ PfüÇR ÀL ï ï ï T f A V é ôà N k' Ü P ' S T . NOVEMBER 2 2 , 1983 14 LÛ U lS PERSONAL CONSOMPTION ___________________COMPOUNDED Tfc KM lN AL E X F F í ÜTTURES ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L CURRENT j n OF OOLLARS CHANGE________________ B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS QUARTER “ QUARTER ANNUAL 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -6 0 3 -6 0 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -6 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 RATES 2 -6 3 10.3 1»44 6.3 1 » 476 . 0 1 1.2 11.7 14.9 4 -7 9 1 1.8 12.3 1 4.3 13.7 1 -8 0 1 1.7 1 2.0 13.3 12.4 11.2 2 —8 0 9 .9 9 .8 1 0.2 6 .6 6 .2 1 ,5 7 8 .0 1 ,6 2 0 .5 1 .5 1 1626 #4 3 -8 0 10.6 1 0.7 11.1 10.1 9 .0 7 .9 14.8 4-50 11.1 1 1.2 11.7 11 . 0 10.4 1 0. 1 14.7 14.4 1 -8 1 11.5 11.6 12.1 1 1.6 11 . 2 11.2 14.7 14.7 1 4.7 2-8 1 1 1.1 11.2 11.5 1 1 .0 10.6 10.5 12.9 12.2 1 1 .1 1 ,6 6 3 .4 1 ,7 4 1 .9 1 ,8 0 2 .6 7 .5 I ,8 3 5 .8 3 -8 1 11 .1 11.2 1 1.5 11.1 10.7 1 0.6 12.6 12.0 11.2 9 .5 1 1.4 4 -8 I 10.5 1 0.5 1 0.7 1 0.3 9 .8 9 .7 11.1 1 0.4 9 .3 7 .6 7 .6 3 .9 1 -8 2 1C.3 10.3 1 0.4 1 0.0 9 .6 9 .4 1 0.6 9 .9 8 .9 7 .5 7 .6 5 .7 7 .5 2-8 2 1 0.0 10.0 1 0.2 f.7 9 .3 9 .1 10.1 9 .5 8 .7 7 .5 7 .5 6 .2 7 .3 7 .2 9 .0 9 .8 9 .2 8 .5 7 .5 7 .5 6 .5 7 .4 7 .3 7 .5 1,6 8 6 .1 1 ,9 0 4 .1 1,9 3 8 .9 1 ,9 7 2 .8 3 -^ 2 9 .9 9 .8 9 .9 9 .5 9 .2 4 -8 2 9 .7 9 .7 9 .8 9 .4 9 .1 e .9 9. 1 8 .4 7. 5 7 .5 6 .8 7 .5 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 1 -8 3 9.5 9 .4 9 .5 9 .1 8.8 8 .6 9 .2 6 .7 6 .0 7 .2 7 .2 6 .5 7 .0 6 .9 6 .8 6 .5 5 .2 2-83 9 .a 9 .7 9.8 9 .5 9 .2 9 .0 9 .7 9 .2 8 .7 8 .1 8 .1 7 .7 8 .3 6 .5 8 .8 9 .3 3-8 3 9.6 9 .6 9.6 9 .3 9 .0 8 .9 9 .0 8.6 6 .0 8 .0 7 .6 8 .1 8.2 8 .4 8 .7 Z —79 :W V A-- ÌV 1 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -81 2-81 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 1- 2 -8 0 INITIAL 2 ,0 4 6 .9 2 ,0 7 3 .0 ° © 4 - ry 2 ,0 0 8 .6 15.1 9 .0 10.9 6 .9 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 2 ,1 4 7 .0 2 , 1 82 .9 QUARTER PE R S O N A L C O N S U M P T lU N FX P E N D l TUR E S I N 1972 D O L L A R S ___________ COMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE t e r m in a l IN IT IA L B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS AN N U A L R A T E S QUA RTER WUARTÉR 2 -7 9 0 .1 1-79 2 -7 9 3 -79 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 1 0 .9 0 °P 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 4 -8 0 1 -8 1 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 - 83 2 - 83 9 2 1 .2 -0 .7 9 1 9 .5 3 -7 9 1 .7 2 .1 5 .1 4 -7 9 2 .1 2 .5 4 .2 3 .3 1 -B C 1 .7 1 .9 2 .7 1 .6 -0 .1 2 -P U 0 .0 -0 . I 0 .0 -1 .6 -4 .0 -7 .7 3 -8 C 0 .6 0 .6 0 .9 -0 .2 -1 .3 -1 .9 4 .3 4 -8 0 1 .1 1.2 1 .5 0 .8 0 .1 0 .2 4 .5 4 .6 1 -8 1 1 .6 1 .7 2.1 1 .6 1.3 1 .6 5 .0 5 .3 5 .9 2 -8 1 1 .5 1 .6 1.9 1 .5 1.1 1.4 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 0 .5 3 -8 1 1 .7 1.8 2 .1 1.7 1 .5 1 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .3 2 .0 3 .5 4 -8 1 1 .3 1 .3 1 .6 1 .2 0 .9 l.l 2 .6 2 .3 1 .7 0 .3 0 .2 -3 .0 1 -8 2 1 .4 1.4 1.6 1 .3 1.1 1 .2 2 .6 2 .3 1 .8 0 .8 0 .9 -0 .3 2 .4 2 -8 2 1 .5 . 1 .6 1.8 1 .5 1 .3 I .4 2 .6 2 .4 2 .0 1.3 1 .5 0 .8 2.8 3.1 3 -8 2 1 .5 1 .5 1.7 1.4 1 .2 1 .4 2 .4 2 .2 1.9 1 .2 1 .4 0 .8 2 .1 2 .0 0 .9 4 -8 2 1 .6 1 .7 1 .8 1 .6 1 .4 1 .6 2 .6 2 .4 2.1 1 .5 1 .7 1.4 2.5 2 .5 2 .2 3 .6 1.7 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1.7 2 .6 2 .4 2.2 1 .7 1 .9 1 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 3 .3 2 .9 3 .2 3. 1 2 .9 2 .6 2 .9 2 .8 3 .8 4. 1 4 .3 5 .5 6 .4 10 . 0 2 .9 2 .8 3.7 3 .9 4 .0 4 .8 5 .3 6. 4 3 .0 2 -8 2 5^82 4 -8 2 1 - 83 83 9 3 0 .9 9 3 8 .6 9 3 8 .3 9 1 9 .6 9 2 9 .4 9 4 0 .0 9 5 3 .6 1 -8 3 1 .7 2 -8 3 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 2 .2 2.1 2 .3 3 -8 3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .4 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 2 .6 4 - /Ö I - /V Z-7 V 3 -/V 4 - 79 1 -8 0 ¿ -0 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 -81 IN IT IA L 9 5 4 .7 2 -8 1 9 6 2 .9 3 -8 1 9 5 5 .7 4 -8 1 961 . 4 9 6 8 .8 9 7 1 .0 9 7 9 .6 9 8 6 .7 I ,0 1 0 .6 1,0 1 8 .0 QUARTER PR EPA R ED NOVEMBER BY PED ERa L 22 * 1 98 3 R ES ER V E' B a n * ÖP $T7'~L0 u 1 s GROSr i^IVATe OOHESTIC INVESTMENT IN CWK6NT OOLLARS _______ COHPUUNOEO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_________ TERMINAL QUA* TiER in it ia l 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2— 79 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 B IL L IO N S O f D O LL A R S AN NUAL R A T E S quarter 1 -8 1 2 -81 3 -81 4 -8 1 1-82 2 -0 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 6 .0 2 -7 9 9 .6 1 3.3 3 -7 9 7 .5 8 .3 4 -7 9 1 .9 0 .5 -5 .3 -1 3 .3 1 -8 0 2 .5 1 .7 -2 .0 -4 .5 5 .1 2 -8 0 - 2 .4 -4 .0 -7 .9 -1 1 .4 -1 0 .5 -2 3 .8 3 -8 0 -4 .2 - 5 .8 -9 .2 -1 2 .1 -1 1 .8 -1 9 .1 -1 4 .2 0 0 .3 -0 .5 -2 .6 -3 .8 -1 .2 -3 .2 9 .0 38.5 1 -8 1 4 .9 4 .6 3 .6 3 .6 7 .4 7 .9 2 1.2 4 4.1 49.8 2 -8 1 5 .9 5 .9 5 .0 5.2 8 .7 9 .4 19.7 33.8 31.5 1 5.4 3 -8 1 7 .2 7 .4 6 .7 7. 1 10.4 11.3 20.1 30.6 28.1 18.5 2 1 .6 4 -e l 5 .2 5. 1 4 .3 4 .4 6 .9 7 .1 13.4 19.9 15.7 6 .1 1 .7 -1 4 .9 1 -8 2 \ .0 0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .8 0 .6 0 .1 4. 1 7 .5 2 .2 -7 .2 -1 3 .6 -2 7 .2 -3 7 .8 2 -8 2 1 .6 1 .3 0 .3 0.1 1 .5 l.l 4 .7 7 .8 3 .3 -4 .1 -8 .4 -1 6 .6 -1 7 .5 9 .4 -0 .5 0 .7 0 .3 3 .4 5 .9 1 .9 -4 .5 -8 .0 -1 4 .2 -1 4 .0 1 .1 -6 .5 -1 4 .1 -2 3 .9 -3 8 .0 -8 .7 -9 .7 3 1.4 1 1 -7 9 3 -8 2 1-83 2 -8 3 4 1 5 .1 4 2 8 .3 3 .4 4 3 1 .9 4 1 6 .8 4 2 2 .0 394 „3 3 79 .5 4 1 1 .7 4 55 .5 4 72 .1 4 95 .8 4 76 ,2 1.0 0 .7 -0 .2 4 -6 2 -2.0 -2 .5 -3 .6 -4 . 1 -3 .3 -4 .0 -1 .7 -0 . 2 -4 .3 -1 0 .2 -1 3 .9 -1 9 .6 -2 0 .7 1 -8 3 -C .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 -1 .9 -0 .9 -1 .4 0 .9 2 .5 -0 .8 -5 .8 -8 .5 -1 2 .7 -1 2 .3 4 22 .9 -4 . 4 4 3 2 .5 4 25 ,3 3 77 .4 4 0 4 .1 2 -8 3 2 .1 1 .9 1 .2 1 .1 2 .2 2 .0 4 .5 6 .4 3 .6 -0 .5 -2 .4 -5 .4 -3 .7 5 .1 4 .1 7 .8 4 2.2 5 3.9 3-33 * .2 4. 1 3 .6 3 .6 4 .9 4 .9 7 .5 9 .5 7 .2 3 .6 2 .4 0 .2 2 .6 1 1.5 12.0 1 7.1 4 4.8 52.0 5 0.1 4 - 76" 1-79“ 2 -n "T -T T 4 -7 9 1 -8 D 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 I-8 I 2 -8 1 3 -81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 Z -8 2 3 -8 2 T 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 IKITTa L 450. 1 4 9 8 .2 "'GuarTEr GROSS P R I V A T E D O M E S T IC I N V E S T M E N T I N 1972 D O L L A R S COMPOUNDED A N N U AL R A T E S O f CHANGE ______ - I .2 2 -7 9 -0 .7 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1-80 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 3-81 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 * I 00 2 -7 9 B IL L IO N S O f DOLLARS ANN UAL R A T E S QUARTER 00 1 -7 9 700 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 • CD 0 IN IT IA L N> 1 T-RM INAL O U ^ rl T F K 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 2 4 1 .5 -0 .3 2 41 .3 3 -7 9 -2 .7 -3 .5 —6 . 6 4 -7 9 -7 .0 - 8 .8 -1 2 .8 -1 8 .6 1 -8 0 -6 .0 -7 .1 -9 .3 -1 0 .6 -1 .8 2 -8 0 - 1 1.3 - 1 3 .2 -1 6 .1 -1 9 .1 -1 9 .3 -3 3 .7 -1 4 .8 -1 6 .8 -1 6 .2 -2 2 .5 2 37 .2 3 -8 0 -1 1 .0 -1 2 .6 4 -8 0 - 6 .9 -7 .7 -8 .8 —9 . 3 1 -8 1 -3 .7 -4 .0 -4 .5 -4 .1 2 25 .3 2 24 .3 2 0 2 .4 -9 .5 1 9 7 .4 —6 . 8 -8 .4 7 .7 -0 .9 -0 .7 13.6 2 7.3 2 6.5 1 .2 1 .9 1 3.4 2 2 .2 19.4 28. 1 2 10 .0 2 2 2 .7 2 -8 1 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .5 -1 .9 3 -8 1 -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .9 - 0 . 2 2 .8 3 .5 13.2 19.7 17.0 12.6 1 2.4 4 -8 1 -2 .9 -3 .1 -3 .3 -3 .0 -0 .8 -0 .7 6 .3 9 .7 5 .6 —0 . 6 —6 . 7 -2 2 .5 1 -8 2 -5 .8 -6 .1 —6 . t> -6 .7 -5 .2 -5 .6 -0 .8 0 .8 -3 .9 -1 0 .3 -1 6 .9 -2 8 .6 -3 4 .2 2 -8 2 -5 .1 -5 .4 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .4 -4 .7 - 0 . 2 1 .2 -2 .7 -7 .7 -1 2 .2 -1 9 .2 -1 7 .5 0. 3 12.8 2 2 9 .5 2 3 6 .3 221 . 7 1 99 .7 2 0 1 .4 3 .4 -5 .5 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .5 -4 .8 -0 .9 -3 .2 -7 .4 -1 1 .0 -1 6 .0 -1 3 .8 -1 .3 -5 .8 4 -8 2 -7 .4 -7 .8 -8 .3 -8 .4 -7 .5 -8 .0 -4 .9 -4 .4 -7 .8 -1 1 .9 -1 5 .5 - 2 0 . 1 -1 9 .5 -1 4 .0 -2 1 .5 -3 4 .6 1 -8 3 -5 .6 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 . 1 -5 .1 —5 . 4 -2 .3 -1 .5 -4 .4 -7 .6 -1 0 .2 -1 1 .6 -4 .9 -7 .5 -8 .3 2 8.7 2 -8 3 -3 .1 -3 .2 -3 .4 -3 .2 - 2 . 0 - 2 . 0 1 .3 2 .3 0 .0 -2 .5 -4 .3 -6 . 5 -3 .5 4 .2 4 .4 8 .0 38.8 4 9.8 3 -8 3 - l . l - 1 .1 -1 .2 -0 .8 0 .5 0 .6 3 .9 5 .1 3 .3 1 .2 -0 .0 -I. 5 2.0 9 .7 1 1.0 1 5.6 39.8 4 5 .8 4 1.9 I - 79 2 -7 9 3^T9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 Z — 80 3 -8 0 4 -80 1-81 2-Til ' 5-81 4-81 1-82 2-52 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -83 2 -8 3 3 -8 2 4 - in initial oimatea -1 3 .5 ' " " 1 7 8 .4 1 90.0 2 1 0 .2 2 29 .4 " P ftB P A ft fö NOVEMBER 16 1 98 .4 0V FC öTft'AL R ES ER V E 22» 1 98 3 Of ST. L O U IS G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S AND S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S _________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ____________________ terminal INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 4-78 1- 7 9 2-79 3-79 1-79 5.2 2-79 6.0 6.8 3-79 8.2 9.7 1 2 .6 4-79 10.3 12.1 14.8 16.9 4-79 1-8 0 2-80 3-8 0 4 — 80 1-81 2- 81 3 - 81 4 - 81 2-82 1-82 3-82 4-82 1- 8 3 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2- 8 3 456.9 464.5 478 .5 497.6 1- 8 0 11 .6 13 .3 15.5 17 .0 17.1 2 -BO 12.1 13.5 15 .3 16 .2 15.8 14 .6 3-80 10 .7 1 1 .7 12 .7 12 .7 11.3 8.5 2.7 4-8 0 11.3 12.2 13.1 13 .2 12.3 10 . 8 9.0 15 .6 1- 81 11.5 12 . 3 13.1 13 .2 12 .5 11.3 1 0 .3 14.3 13 .0 2-8 1 10.8 11 . 5 12.1 12.0 11.2 10 .1 9.0 11.1 9 .0 3—8 1 1C .9 11.5 12.1 12.0 11 .3 10 .4 9. 6 11 .4 10 .0 8.5 4-e l 11 .4 11 .9 12.4 12.4 11 .9 11.2 10 . 6 12.2 11 . 4 10.9 13 .9 15 .9 1-3 2 10.8 11.3 11.7 1 1.6 11.0 1 0 .3 9.7 1 0 .9 10 .0 9.3 10.7 10.1 4.6 2-8 2 10.1 10.5 10.0 10 . 6 10.0 9.2 8.6 9.5 8 .5 7.6 8.2 7.0 2.8 1.1 3-82 10. 5 10.9 11.2 11.1 10 .6 9.9 9.4 10 .3 9 .5 9. 0 9. 8 9. 2 7.1 8.4 16 .2 4-8 2 10.8 1 1 .2 11.5 11 .4 11.0 10.4 10 .0 10.8 10 .3 9.9 10.7 10.4 9.1 10.7 15.8 15 . 5 1-8? 10.0 1 0 .3 10 .6 10.4 10.0 9.4 8.9 9.6 8 .9 8.4 8. 9 8.4 7. 0 7.6 9.8 6.7 -1.3 2-83 9.7 9.9 10. 1 10 . 0 9. 5 8.9 8. 5 9.0 6 .4 7.9 8. 2 7. 7 6.4 6. 8 8.2 5.7 1. 1 3-83 9. 7 9.9 10.1 10. 0 9.5 9. 0 8. 6 9. 1 8 .5 8.1 8. 4 7. 9 6.9 7.2 8.5 6.7 3. 9 6.6 9.7 1- 79 - 2- 79 3-79 1- 80 2 -8 0 3^80 4 - 80 1-81 2-61 3 -0 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 }-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 4 - 7b 517.6 535.5 539.1 559.0 576.3 5.1 583.5 12.0 600.3 622.8 629.8 631.6 655.7 6 7 9 .7 677.4 683 .4 3. 6 699.4 TMTflTQUÀtfTeS" '“ P U R C H A S E S COMPOUNDED OF G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN A N N U A L K A T E S OF C H A N G E INITIAL terminal 1972 D O L L A R S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES OUARTER JU A R T t R 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1- 80 2-80 3 - 80 4-80 -1 .9 2-79 — 0 .6 0.6 3-79 0. 5 1 .7 2 .9 4-79 1 .3 2. 3 3.2 3.5 1-80 1 .8 2 .7 3.5 3.8 4.0 2-8 C 2 .2 3.0 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0 3-80 1.3 1 .8 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.0 -3.8 * l 00 o 4-70 1-79 0.9 1. 3 1.4 1.1 0.5 -0.7 -3.0 - 2 .1 1-8 1 1 .3 1 .7 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 —0. 6 l.l 4.5 2-8 1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.1 0. 7 ° o -0.9 0.0 1.1 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 1-83 2 -83 276.4 276.8 278.8 201 .2 284.0 286.8 284.0 282.5 295.6 -2.1 284.1 1 .2 1.6 1.4 l.l 0.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 00 3. 9 4-8 I 1 .4 1.7 1 .8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.6 1.6 2. 5 1.9 3.9 4.0 1- P 2 1 .3 1.5 1.6 1.5 1 .3 0.9 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.5 1.8 -0.3 o 3-8 1 1. 5 286.8 289.6 289.4 2-82 0.8 1 .0 1.1 0.9 0. 7 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.6 -0 . 5 -2 . 6 -4.9 3-8 2 I .4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1 .4 1.1 0.8 1.4 1 .9 1.5 2.3 1.9 I .2 1.9 9.3 4- 8 2 1 .9 2. 2 2. 3 2. 2 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.8 3. 6 3. 6 3.5 4.8 10 .0 1- 83 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 I .0 0. 8 1.2 1 .6 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.9 1.2 3. 3 0.5 2- 8 3 1.1 1 .3 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0. 6 0.7 2.2 -0.0 0 tr\ 1 -1.1 3-83 1.3 1. 5 1.6 1.5 I .4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1 .7 1.4 1 .8 1.6 1.2 1.5 2.8 1. 2 -1.7 2.0 5. 2 4-78 1— 77 2-7V 3-/V 4-/9 T.-80 2-80 3-80 4-FO T-8T 2-81 3 - S T ~ 4-Til “1-82 4-82 1-83 2 -83 285.8 292.2 i co N 10.7 299.7 -8.8 292.9 292.1 295.8 I N I T I A L <T O R T E R " “PR EPA R ED B T “ F 6 D E R A L NOVEMBER 2 2 , 1983 17 R ES ER V E t ìA N K T O F ^ T T L O U IS d is p o s a b l e personal in com e in COMPOUND60 A N N U A L R A T E S TERM INAL QUARTER 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 -8 0 o 4 -7 8 (NJ 1 CD IN IT IA L 3—80 4 -8 0 current dollars OF C H A N G E __________ B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS A NN UAL RATfcS QUARTER 1 -8 1 1 -7 9 1 2.1 2 -7 9 10.8 9 .5 3 -7 9 11.5 11.2 1 3.0 4 -7 9 11 .2 10.8 11.5 10. 1 i-e o U .7 11 .6 12.3 12.0 1 3.9 2-^0 1 C .4 10. 1 10.2 9 .3 8 .9 3 -«C *0 .8 10.6 10.8 1 0.3 1 0.3 8 .6 13.2 11 .2 11.1 1 1.3 1 1 .0 11.3 1 0.4 1 3.6 14.1 l- « l 11 . 4 11 .3 11.6 1 1.4 11.6 1 1. 1 13.5 13.6 13.1 2 -ei 11 .2 11.1 11 . 3 11.0 11.2 10.6 1 2.3 12.0 11 .0 9 .0 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -8 2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1-83 2 -8 3 1 ,5 8 7 .5 1 ,6 2 4 .0 1 ,6 7 4 .3 1 ,7 1 4 .9 1 ,7 7 1 .7 4. 1 1 ,7 8 9 .8 1,8 4 6 .0 1 ,9 0 8 .0 1 ,9 6 7 .6 2 ,0 1 0 .4 3 -8 1 11 .7 11 . 7 11.9 11 . 8 12.0 11.7 1 3.3 13.3 13.1 13.0 17.3 4 -8 1 1 1.2 11.1 1 I .3 11.1 11.2 10.8 12.0 1 1.7 11.1 10.5 1 1.3 5 .6 1 -8 2 1C . 4 1 0.3 1 0.3 10.1 10 .1 9 .6 1 0.4 9 .9 9 .1 8.1 7 .9 3 .5 1 .4 2 -8 2 U .1 9 .9 1 C.0 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .8 9 .4 8 .6 7 .7 7 .4 4. 3 3 .7 6.0 8 .9 9 .4 9 .0 8.2 7 .4 7 .1 4 .8 4 .5 6. 1 7 .1 5 .2 5 .1 6 .3 6 .5 6 .8 6 .8 5 .2 5 .1 6.0 6.0 6 .0 5 .1 2 ,0 9 2 .0 2 ,1 2 0 .5 2 , 127 .9 2 ,1 5 9 .0 3 -8 2 9 .8 9 .6 9 .7 9 .4 9 .3 4 -8 2 9 .6 9 .5 9 .5 9. 2 9 .1 8 .7 9 .2 8 .7 8.1 7 .4 i-e? 9 .4 9 .2 9 .2 3 .9 8.8 8 .4 8.8 8 .4 7 .7 7. 1 2 —8 3 9 .3 9. 1 9. 1 8 .8 8 .8 8 .4 8 .7 8 .3 7 .8 7 .2 7 .0 5 .6 5 .6 6 .5 6 .6 6 .7 6 .7 8.2 3 -8 3 9 .4 9 .2 9 .2 9 .0 8 .9 8 .6 8 .9 8. 6 8.1 7 .6 7 .4 6 .3 6 .4 7 .2 7 .5 7 .8 8 .2 9 .7 11.2 4 - /y I - JV 2 -/9 3 -/9 4 - /V 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 0 1 — 81 Z - 8T 3 -8 1 4 -81 1 -8 2 2 -82 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -83 2 -8 3 6 .2 2 ,1 9 1 .5 2 ,2 2 7 .8 2 ,2 5 5 .9 2 ,3 0 1 .0 2 ,3 6 3 .1 I N I T I A L "Q UA k T T A DISPOSABLE P E RS O N A L INCOME I N 1972 O O L L A R S a n n u a l r a t e s o f c h a n g e _______ coMPQUNoea T c KM I N A L iU A R Tt-k IN IT IA L 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -80 B I L L I O N S OF OOLLARS A N N U AL R A T E S UUARTER 1 -8 1 I -70 2 .5 2 -7 9 1 .4 0 .2 3 -7 9 2 .0 1 .7 3 .2 4 -7 9 1 .5 1.2 1 .7 C. l 1— 8 0 1 .7 I .5 1 .9 1 .2 2 -8 0 C .5 0. 1 0 .0 - 1.0 - I .6 -5 .3 3 -8 0 0 .8 0 .5 0.6 - 0. 1 - 0.1 -1 .3 2 .9 4 -8 0 1 .2 1 .0 1 .2 0 .8 0 .9 0 .5 3 .5 4 .1 1 -8 1 1 .6 1 .5 1.6 1.4 1 .6 1 .5 3 .8 4 .3 4 .4 2-8 1 1.6 1 .5 1 .7 1 .4 1 .7 1 .5 3 .3 3 .5 3 .1 1 .9 2 -8 1 3 -8 I 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -82 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 1 , 011.1 1 ,0 1 1 .7 1, 020.1 2 .3 1 ,0 2 5 .8 1 , 0 1 2 .0 1 ,0 1 9 .2 1 ,0 2 9 .6 1 ,0 4 0 .7 1 ,0 4 5 .6 3 -e i 2.2 2 .2 2 .4 2 .3 2 .7 2 .7 4 .4 4 .8 5 .0 5 .3 8 .9 4 -8 I I .9 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 2. 1 2.1 3 .4 3 .5 3 .4 3 .0 3 .6 -1 .4 1 -8 2 1 .5 1 .4 1 .5 1.4 1 .5 1 .4 2.4 2 .3 2.0 1 .4 1 .2 -2 .4 -3 .4 1,0 6 8 .1 1 ,0 6 4 .3 1 ,0 5 5 .1 2-8 2 1 .5 1 .5 1.6 1 .4 1 .6 1 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2.0 1.5 1 .4 - 1.0 —0 .8 1 .9 3 -8 2 1 .4 1 .3 1 .4 1 .3 1 .4 1 .3 2 .1 1 .9 1 .6 1.2 1 .0 —0 . 8 —0 .6 o.a -0 .3 4 -8 2 1 .5 1 .4 1 .5 1 .4 1 .5 1 .4 2.1 2.0 1 .8 1 .4 1 .3 -0. 1 0.2 1 .4 l.l 2.6 1 -8 3 1.6 1 .5 1.6 1 .5 1.6 1 .5 2.2 2.1 1 .9 1 .6 1 .5 0 .4 0 .7 1 .8 1.7 2 .8 2 -8 3 1 .7 1 .6 1 .7 1.6 1 .7 1 .7 2.3 2 .2 2 .0 1.8 1 .8 0.8 1 .2 2 .1 2.2 3 .0 3.2 3 .5 3 -8 3 2.0 1.9 2.0 2 .0 2.1 2.1 2 .7 2.6 2 .5 2 .3 2 .4 1 .6 2.0 2 .9 3 .1 4 .0 4 .5 5 .3 7 .2 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 7 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 ^ 8 '0 1-81 2 -8 1 5 -8 1 4 -8 1 r -8 2 2 - 8^ 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 1 -8 3 2 -8 3 IN lflA L 1 ,0 6 0 .2 1 ,0 5 9 .3 1 ,0 6 6 .1 1 ,0 7 3 .8 2 .9 1 ,0 8 3 .1 1 ,1 0 2 .1 ¿ U A k T ^ ft" P ^ P A A fO 8Y W bt'ffA L ftES^RVe BANK OF ST. NOVEMBER 2 2 , 1903 18 LOUIS C O R P OR AT E PROFITS AF TE R TA XE S* C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L K A T E S OF- C H A N G E B I L L I O N S OF * L__________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ____________________________________________________________O O L L A K S UÜÀRTtR ANNUAL RATES 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 3-81 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 4- 81 2-02 1-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 1-7Q 3.3 2-7Q 5 .8 8.4 161 .2 164.5 3-79 8.2 10.7 1 3 .0 4-79 3.2 3.2 0. 6 -10.4 1-8 0 3 .1 3.1 1 .4 -4.0 2.9 2-8 0 -8.7 -11 . 0 -15.3 -23.0 -28.6 3-80 -4.7 -6.0 -8.7 -13.4 — . 4 -21 .9 23 . 3 4-flO -15.3 10.7 169.6 165.0 14 1 U! o V* 166.2 13 9 , 4 146.9 -4.2 - 5 .2 - 7 . 4 -1 1 .0 - 1 1 . 1 1-8 I -2 . 2 -2.8 -4.3 -7.C -6 . 3 -8.4 12 . 4 7.3 15.9 2-8 1 -5.6 -6.5 -8 . 2 - 1 0 . 9 -11.0 -13.5 -0.6 -7 . 5 -10.7 -31.2 2.6 -2.0 -2.4 -1 0 .5 -2.8 -3.4 -9.1 4.5 -11 .4 -1 6 . 1 -18.9 -25.8 -23.9 -0.5 146 . 7 152.2 138 .6 3-8 I -3 . 7 -4 .4 -5 . 7 -7.9 -7 .5 -9 .1 4-8 1 -3.9 -4.6 -5.8 -7.7 -7 .3 -8.7 1 - 8? -10.2 -11 .2 -12 .8 - 1 5 . 0 -15.5 -17.6 2-82 -8 . 4 -9.3 -10.6 -12.5 -12.7 -14.3 -8.2 -1 2. 0 -13.8 -18 .8 - 1 5 . 3 3-8 2 -8.1 — 8.9 -10.1 -11.8 -1 1 .9 - 1 3 . 2 -7 .7 -10.9 -12.3 -16.3 4-A2 -8.2 -8 . 9 -10.1 -11 .6 - 1 1 . 7 -12.9 -7.9 -10. 8 - 1 2 . 0 -15.4 -12.5 -17.3 1.1 16.5 144.0 -6.2 141 .7 -3 8. 5 - 5 9 . 7 112.9 -31 .4 1 6 .9 - 1 3 . 0 -19. 1 - 2 3 .0 6. 5 -3.0 -19.9 0.7 -6.5 - 1 7 . 3 - 1 9 .4 -23.8 117.4 1 1 6. 5 -9. 9 113.5 1- 8 3 -8.8 -9 .5 - 1 0 . 6 -12.1 -12.2 -13.3 -8 .8 -11.5 -12.7 -15.7 -13.2 -4 . 2 -10.3 2-83 -5.0 -5 . 4 -6.2 -7.4 -7 . 2 -7.9 -3.0 -5. 1 -5.5 - 7 .7 -4.2 -6 . 8 -6.9 10.0 8.3 12.4 25.6 91.0 3-83 -2.5 -2.8 -3.4 -4.4 -3 . 9 -4.4 0. 5 -1 . 1 -1.2 - 2 .8 1.1 -0.7 0.1 16 . 5 16.4 21.8 34.7 72.0 54.9 4-78 1- 79 2-/9 3-f9 4-79 1- 8 0 2 — 80 3— 80 4 — 80 1— 81 2 — 81 3— 8 1 4 - 81 1- 82 2-82 3-82 4-0? 1-85» 2-83 In i t i a l * national income K — RK hL lr ti NA RY -13.7 -17.4 108.2 127.2 1 4 1 . 9R Oü a r t e r basis PREPARED NOVEMBER BY F E D E R A L 22, 19 8 3 K c S fRVE ÖAN* OF HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical Tables (Stock number 1503-010-00101 -1, price $10.00). Estimates for 1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for 1980-82 appear in the July 1983 purvey oT~Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications are available from the Superififendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 i>T. L U U Ï S I NVENTORI ES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES* MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 68 . 64 64 . 60 60 .56 56 . 52 52 . 48 48 44 . 40 40 .36 36 32 1969 «RATIOS 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 BASED ON SE A SO N A L L Y ADJUSTED DAT A . 1978 1979 SOURCE: 1980 1 98 1 1982 1983 U . S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE SHADED AREAS REPRESENT P ER I O DS OF BUSI NESS R E C E S S I O N S . LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : SEPTEMBER P R E L I MI N A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . 20 LOUIS
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