Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1993

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Novem ber 1993

N ational
Economic
Trends
Did Employment Rise or
Fall?
The two most prominent data series on U.S. em­
ployment (see pages 5 and 6) come from different
sources. The monthly household survey covers about
60,000 households containing about 113,000 adults.
The monthly establishment or payroll survey gathers
information on employees at more than 370,000
workplaces. As the lower part of the chart shows, the
surveys frequently disagree on a month-to-month
basis, sometimes dramatically. Why?
One reason is that the payroll survey does not
ver about 13 million self-employed, agricultural,
usehold and unpaid family workers, all of whom
are included in the household survey. In months
when the two surveys disagree, much of the difference
can sometimes be traced to changes in these excluded
categories. The November 1992 household survey,
for example, reports that employment had increased
by 377,000 persons while the payroll survey reports
an increase of only 132,000. Excluding the four cate­
gories mentioned above, household employment rose
by only 157,000, roughly consistent with the results
of the payroll survey.
In September 1993 by contrast, household survey
employment fell by 253,000 while payroll employ­
ment rose by 156,000. This time the same four cate­
gories collectively accounted for only 22,000 of the
difference. Much of the difference can be attributed
to a second factor that statisticians call sampling vari­
ation. In September 1993, 61.58 percent of adults in
the household survey were employed. Statisticians
can show that if a different 113,000 people were
surveyed, about a third of the time that percentage

Q

would be more than 61.72 or less than 61.44. This
small variation in the estimated fraction of the popula­
tion employed means that there is about a one-third
probability that the actual number of people employed
is more than about 300,000 higher or lower than the
published figure. These approximate calculations do
not incorporate detailed information about sampling
procedures, but they give some idea of the reliability
of the household survey’s employment estimates.
The payroll survey reports information on about
45 million employees (compared to only about
113,000 in the household survey), which means there
is far less sampling variability, though there are other
potential sources of error. Consequently, employment
as recorded by the payroll survey is much smoother
than household (civilian) employment (compare pages
5 and 6). Over a longer period sampling variation in
the household survey tends to cancel out, as shown
in the upper half of the chart, so that the two employ­
ment measures usually show similar trends.
— Joseph A. Ritter

Household and Payroll Employment
Index, October 1992 * 1.0

- 1.02

_.»"

Payroll Index

- 1.01
ii i»*'
- 1
1000800 600 400 200 -

Change (thousands)

"IHousehold
Payroll
m

-200 -400 -

J r flB

i!
Ü

O 'N ■D 'J
1992

j J

I
X T —

'F

_

»
—

M ' A 'M ' J ' J
1993

.
l ì

’ A 1 S

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

3-92

4.4

4-92

4.0

3.5

5-92

3.2

2.6

6-92

3.1

2.6

2.2

2.6

7-92

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

3.5

8-92

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.7

10-92

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

1982-84=100
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
139.3
139.7

1.7

139.9
140.2
140.6
140.9
141.1
141.7
2.6

142.0

12-92

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

1.7

1-93

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.4

3.9

6.1

2-93

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.0

5.2

4.3

3-93

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

1.7

4-93

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.3

3.7

3.4

5.1

5-93

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.2

2.8

3.4

6-93

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.2

0.8

0.0

7-93

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.9

0.8

0.4

0.8

8-93

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.2

1.5

1.4

2.1

3.4

9-93

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.8

1.8

1.2

1.0

1.4

1.7

0.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




142.2
142.9
143.4
143.6
144.2
1.7

144.4
144.4
144.5
144.9
144.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 15, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4.5

4-92

2.6

0.9

5-92

0.0

-2.2

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

137.6

-1.1

-0.9

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.5

0.4

0.9

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

3.5

1.5

3-93

137.5

0.0

1.2

2-93

-5.1

-1.7

7-92

1982-84=100
1-93

138.1

-2.2

0.0

11-92

7-92

-1.2

0.2

10-92

6-92

0.9

6-92

9-92

5-92

138.0

3-92

8-92

4-92

137.5
138.3
138.7
138.7
138.8
139.2

12-92

1.5

1.2

1.2

1-93

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.9

4.0

4.4

2-93

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.7

3-93

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.7

4-93

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

3.0

4.4

5-93

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.2

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.8

4.8

5.2

6-93

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

0.0

-5.0

7-93

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.0

-2.5

0.0

8-93

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.5

0.9

-0.6

1.7

3.5

9-93

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.0

0.0

1.7

2.6

1.7

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-95

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

139.7
139.9
140.1
140.6
141.2
140.6
140.6
141.0
141.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 15, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1982-84=100
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
101.0

3-92

3.6

4-92

3.6

3.6

5-92

4.4

4.8

6.1

6-92

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

8.5

8-92

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

-4.5

9-92

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

0.0

10-92

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

6.0

11-92

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

5.9

2-93

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.3

-0.4

0.6

-4.5

3-93

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.3

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.7

3.1

1.7

8.4

4-93

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.3

2.1

1.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.9

1.9

5.3

5-93

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.1

0.8

0.1

0.6

0.7

0.0

-0.4

0.0

-1.4

-0.4

-4.5 -10.9

6-93

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.7

0.6

-0.1

0.3

0.4

-0.3

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-0.9

-3.8

-6.7

-2.3

7-93

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.6

0.5

-0.1

0.3

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-1.3

-0.7

-2.8

-4.5

-1.1

0.0

8-93

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.1

0.1

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-2.0

-1.5

-3.4

-4.8

-2.7

-2.9

-5.6

9-93

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.7

-0.2

-0.8

-0.5

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-1.4

-2.3

-2.0

-3.6

-4.7

-3.1

-3.4

-5.1

-4.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

101.3




101.8
103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9
104.1
103.9
104.4
104.0
104.7
104.9

2.3

103.9
103.7
103.7
103.2
102.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 15, 1993

P rod u cer P rice Index - F in ished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

3-92

3.0

4-92

3.0

3.0

5-92

3.3

3.5

4.0

6-92

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

7-92

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.0

8-92

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1982 = 100
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
122.5
122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6

9-92

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.0

10-92

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.0

1.0

11-92

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

12-92

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

-1.0

0.0

1-93

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

2.0

3.9

2-93

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.9

4.4

4.9

3-93

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.2

4.3

4.4

3.9

4-93

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.9

4.9

5.3

5.4

6.9

5-93

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.5

3.3

3.9

3.9

3.6

3.4

0.0

6-93

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.5

0.6

-2.4

-4.7

7-93

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.5

0.8

0.0

-2.2

-3.3

-1.9

8-93

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.1

-0.6

-1.5

-3.5

-4.7

-4.7

-7.4

9-93

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.4

-0.3

-1.0

-2.5

-3.1

-2.5

-2.8

1.9

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




123.9
124.0
123.8
123.8
124.2
124.7
125.1
125.8
125.8
125.3
125.1
124.3
124.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1993

Civilian E m p loym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

3-92

3.1

4-92

2.9

2.6

5-92

2.1

1.6

0.6

6-92

1.4

0.8

0.0

-0.7

7-92

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

Initial Month
Persons
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Thousands of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
117,264
117,518
117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724

10-92

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.4

11-92

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.0

-2.4

2-93

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.5

2.0

1.3

0.7

3.9

3-93

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.3

0.9

2.5

1.2

4-93

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-1.5

5-93

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.0

3.1

2.8

3.6

9.0

6-93

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.0

1.7

1.5

2.3

2.0

2.2

4.1

-0.5

7-93

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

1.9

3.0

0.1

0.8

8-93

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.4

2.1

2.3

3.3

1.5

2.5

4.2

9-93

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.5

1.5

2.1

0.5

0.8

0.8

-2.5

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




117,687
118,064
118,311
118,071
118,451
118,565
118,416
119,273
119,219
119,301
119,710
119,457

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 8, 1993

5

Payroll E m ploym en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

1987

1988

1989

1990

Millions of Persons

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Aiinual Rates of Change)
Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month

Terminal
Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
108,164

3-92

1 3

4-92

1 7

2.0

5-92

1 6

1.7

1.4

6-92

1 1

1.1

0.6

-0.2

7-92

1 2

1.2

1.0

0.7

1.7

8-92

1 1

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.9

0.1

9-92

1 0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.7

10-92

1 0

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.3

11-92

1 1

1.1

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.5

12-92

1 1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

1-93

1 2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

2-93

1 4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.4

3-93

1 3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

0.3

4-93

1 4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.5

2.8

5-93

1 5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.7

2.6

6-93

1 4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

2.0

1.5

0.5

7-93

1 5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.5

2.6

8-93

1 4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.3

0.9

1.1

-0.4

9-93

1 4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.3

0.6

1.7

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

108,347




108,470
108,454
108,605
108,615
108,674
108,789
108,921
109,079

6

109,235
109,539
109,565
109,820
110,058
110,101
110,338
110,297
110,453

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 8, 1993

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Thousands of
Persons
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
84,897

3-92

1.7

4-92

2.3

2.8

5-92

2.2

2.4

1.9

6-92

1.8

1.8

1.3

85,096
85,233
0.7

85,282

7-92

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.5

2.3

8-92

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.4

85,445

9-92

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

10-92

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

11-92

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

85,542
85,662
85,794
85,926

12-92

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.4

1-93

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2-93

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

3.3

3-93

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

4-93

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

4.1

5-93

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.5

3.0

6-93

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

2.2

1.5

7-93

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.4

3.2

8-93

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.7

0.2

9-93

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.0

1.8

1.9

1.2

2.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

86,094
86,234
86,470
86,549
86,840
87,052
87,160
87,390
87,402
87,566

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 8, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

Initial Month
Persons
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Thousands of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

3-92

0.1

4-92

-0.4

-0.8

5-92

-0.5

-0.8

-0.7

6-92

-1.2

-1.6

-2.0

-3.3

7-92

-1.1

-1.4

-1.6

-2.0

8-92

-1.7

-2.0

-2.3

-2.8

-2.5

-4.4

9-92

-1.9

-2.2

-2.4

-2.9

-2.7

-3.8

-3.1

10-92

-1.7

-2.0

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.0

-0.9

11-92

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.1

-1.3

-0.4

0.0

12-92

-1.4

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-1.6

-1.8

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

1-93

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.5

-1.3

-1.4

-0.7

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.8

2-93

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-0.7

-0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.2

3.6

3-93

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

-2.7

4-93

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-2.3

-1.9

5-93

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-1.1

-0.3

1.4

6-93

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-1.7

-1.3

-1.0

-3.3

7-93

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.4

8-93

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.8

-1.5

-1.3

-1.1

-1.9

-1.2

-2.7

9-93

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-1.3

-1.1

-1.0

-1.5

-0.9

-1.6

-0.4

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

23,267




23,251
23,237
23,172
-0.6

23,160
23,073
23,012
22,995
22,995
22,985
23,001
23,069
23,016
22,980
23,006
22,941
22,948
22,895
22,887

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 8, 1993

7

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

8

/
✓

Benefits

8
I

1

%

..Æ

... ......... _....
\

.. ...

/
/

/ S '
*
_ ... I
./
\
1

j____ .

» /

a

4
\
\

i _ r H .....1..... 1

1987

\

\
........ _Sh.

Wages and Salaries

w

■

'

T °t al Compensate jn

l

6
✓N

1

1988

1 1 '

1

1989

'

1

— r- |

1990

i

1

1991

1

1

1 '2

1 " ■>. I

1992

1993

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-89

4.2

2-89

4.3

4.5

3-89

4.7

4.9

5.3

4-89

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

1-91

2-91

October 1989 = 100
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
98.8
99.9
101.2
102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4

2-91

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

1-92

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

4.0

109.7
110.9
111.9
113.0

2-92

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.9

3-92

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

2-93

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.5

3-93

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

113.8
114.7
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 26, 1993

8

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

1----- 1----- 1----- ----- 1----- [----- 1----- ----- 1----- )----- 1---------- 1----- 1

1987

1988

1989

r

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

3-92

3.5

4-92

5.8

8.3

5-92

5.4

6.4

4.6

6-92

2.0

1.5

-1.7

-7.6

7-92

3.5

3.4

1.9

0.6

9.4

8-92

2.5

2.3

0.8

-0.4

3.4

-2.2

-1.4

0.8

-3.3

-4.4

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1987 = 100
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93
105.6
106.3
106.7
106.0

106.8
106.6

9-92

1.5

1.1

-0.2

10-92

3.2

3.1

2.3

1.8

4.3

2.6

5.2

15.7

11-92

3.9

4.0

3.4

3.2

5.5

4.6

6.9

13.1

10.5

12-92

4.1

4.2

3.7

3.6

5.5

4.8

6.6

10.6

8.1

5.7

1-93

4.2

4.2

3.8

3.7

5.4

4.7

6.2

9.0

6.9

5.1

4.5

2-93

4.4

4.5

4.1

4.0

5.6

5.0

6.3

8.6

6.8

5.7

5.6

6.8

3-93

4.2

4.3

3.9

3.8

5.2

4.7

5.7

7.5

5.9

4.8

4.5

4.5

4-93

4.1

4.2

3.9

3.8

5.0

4.5

5.4

6.9

5.5

4.5

4.2

4.1

2.8

3.3

5-93

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.3

4.3

3.8

4.5

5.7

4.3

3.3

2.9

2.5

1.1

0.5

-2.2

6-93

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.3

4.2

3.8

4.4

5.4

4.2

3.3

3.0

2.7

1.6

1.5

0.5

3.3

7-93

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.2

4.1

3.7

4.2

5.1

4.0

3.2

2.9

2.6

1.8

1.6

1.1

2.8

2.2

8-93

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.1

3.9

3.5

4.0

4.8

3.8

3.1

2.8

2.5

1.8

1.8

1.4

2.6

2.2

2.2

9-93

3.4

3.4

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.4

3.8

4.5

3.6

2.9

2.6

2.3

1.7

1.6

1.3

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.1

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




106.2
107.5
108.4
108.9
109.3
109.9
2.2

110.1
110.4
110.2
110.5
110.7
110.9
111.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 15, 1993

P erso n a l Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillion» of Dollars

~t

|

I

I

1987

|

I

I

1988

|

I

I

1989

J------ T

Trillions of Dollars

------ T

1990

|

I

I

1991

|

I

I

1992

1“

1993

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

3-92

4.7

4-92

2.9

1.1

5-92

2.9

2.0

3.0

6-92

2.5

1.7

2.1

1.2

7-92

2.0

1.4

1.5

0.7

0.2

8-92

2.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

2.6

5.1

9-92

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.2

3.3

1.5

10-92

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.6

6.0

6.5

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
8-93

3,597.1
3,600.4
3,609.2
3,612.7
3,613.4
3,628.4
3,632.8
11.8

3,666.8

11-92

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

4.0

-3.2

12-92

8.3

8.7

9.7

10.7

12.3

14.9

17.5

23.4

29.7

73.7

1-93

1.4

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.2

-0.2

-3.9

-4.2 -47.2

2-93

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.2

-2.5

-2.2 -26.6

1.9

3,656.9
3,829.1
3,630.7
3,636.5

3-93

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.5

1.5

-0.4

0.3 -16.5

5.0

8.2

4-93

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

3.0

2.7

2.9

1.5

2.5 -10.2

7.2

9.9

11.7

5-93

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.7

1.4

2.2

-8.0

5.6

6.9

6.3

1.1

6-93

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.0

1.6

-7.1

4.0

4.6

3.4

-0.5

-2.1

7-93

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.3

0.2

0.7

-6.9

2.3

2.4

1.0

-2.3

-3.9

-5.8

8-93

2.5

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

1.7

2.2

-4.3

4.1

4.5

3.8

1.9

2.1

4.3

15.5

9-93

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.5

1.7

2.2

-3.7

3.8

4.1

3.4

1.9

2.1

3.5

8.4

1.8

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93




3,660.4
3,694.2
3,697.7
3,691.2
3,673.0
3,717.4
3,722.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 29, 1993

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1987

1988

1989

1990

Billions of Dollars

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

Initial Month
Dollars
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Millions of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

3-92

-11.2

4-92

-6.7

-1.9

5-92

-3.0

1.4

4.8

6-92

-2.7

0.4

1.5

-1.6

7-92

-1.5

1.1

2.1

0.7

3.1

8-92

-0.4

1.9

2.9

2.2

4.2

5.3

9-92

0.7

2.8

3.8

3.6

5.4

6.5

7.7

10-92

2.9

5.1

6.3

6.6

8.8

10.8

13.6

19.7

11-92

2.0

3.8

4.7

4.7

6.0

6.7

7.1

6.9

-4.7

12-92

3.0

4.7

5.6

5.7

7.0

7.8

8.4

8.6

3.5

12.3

1-93

2.2

3.7

4.3

4.3

5.2

5.5

5.5

5.0

0.5

3.2

-5.2

2-93

1.6

2.9

3.4

3.2

3.8

4.0

3.7

2.9

-0.9

0.4

-5.1

-4.9

3-93

0.4

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.1

0.1

-3.4

-3.1

-7.8

-9.1 -13.0

4-93

1.6

2.7

3.1

2.9

3.4

3.4

3.2

2.6

0.0

0.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.7

19.0

5-93

2.0

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.1

0.9

1.9

-0.1

1.3

3.4

12.8

7.0

6-93

2.2

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.5

1.6

2.5

1.0

2.2

4.1

10.5

6.6

6.2

7-93

2.4

3.3

3.7

3.6

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.6

2.0

2.8

1.5

2.7

4.3

9.1

6.0

5.6

5.0

8-93

2.4

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.9

4.0

3.9

3.5

2.0

2.8

1.7

2.7

4.0

7.8

5.2

4.6

3.9

2.8

9-93

2.4

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.3

1.9

2.6

1.6

2.5

3.6

6.7

4.4

3.7

2.9

1.9

1.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

114,894
114,711
115,158
115,004
115,297
115,798
116,517
118,280
117,811
118,956
118,427
117,933
116,567
118,265
118,931
119,526
120,010
120,289
120,392

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 14, 1993

11

In ven tories Compared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.42

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-92
2-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

Millions of
Dollars

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93
830,846

1.2

832,300

3-92

1.7

2.1

4-92

2.8

3.6

5.2

5-92

2.1

2.4

2.5

-0.2

6-92

2.9

3.3

3.7

3.0

6.3

7-92

3.3

3.7

4.1

3.7

5.7

5.1

8-92

3.1

3.4

3.7

3.3

4.5

3.6

2.2

835,805
835,685
839,937
843,411
844,942

9-92

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.0

0.4

-1.3

10-92

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.1

2.6

1.7

0.6

-0.2

1.0

11-92

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.6

1.8

1.1

0.7

1.7

12-92

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.5

2.4

3.2

4.0

1-93

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.6

3.1

3.5

3.0

2-93

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.7

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.3

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.0

5.1

3-93

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.8

2.9

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.8

5.7

6.3

4-93

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.8

5.4

5.6

4.8

5-93

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.7

4.5

3.6

2.4

6-93

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.4

2.4

1.2

0.0

7-93

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.5

1.6

0.5

-0.4

-0.9

8-93

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.6

1.8

1.1

0.7

1.0

2.9

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




844,011
844,728
2.4

846,374
849,117
851,190
854,715
859,094
862,478
864,198
864,227
863,612
865,664

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 15, 1993

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

1-89

3.2

2-89

2.5

1.8

3-89

1.7

0.9

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
4,817.6
4,839.0

0.0

4,839.0

4-89

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.0

1.7

1.6

2.5

3.5

2-90

1.9

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5

4-90

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-2.8

-2.4

2-91

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.5

1.5

3-91

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

1.4

4-91

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.2

1.0

0.6

1-92

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

3.5

4,867.2
4,837.8
4,855.6
1.4

4,872.6
4,879.6
4,922.0

2-92

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

3.2

2.8

3-92

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4-92

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.3

1.9

3-93

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.8

2.4

2.8

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4,956.5
4,998.2
5,068.3
5,078.2
5,102.1
5,138.0

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

1-89

5.4

2-89

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.4

2-90

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

1987 = 100
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
106.9
108.1
109.1
110.1

5.2

111.5
112.7
4.0

113.8

4-90

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.1

3-91

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.1

3.1

4-91

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.7

2.4

1-92

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

2-92

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3-92

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

4-92

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

3.3

1-93

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.6

2-93

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

3.1

3.0

2.3

3-93

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.0

1.6

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

115.0
116.4
117.3
118.2
118.9
120.0
120.9

3.0
1.0

121.2
122.2
123.3
124.0
124.5

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-88

1-89

1.5

2-89

1.8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-93

4-92

1-93

4,776.3
2.2

4,802.0

3-89

1.8

2.0

1.8

4-89

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

5.2

2-90

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.4

3-90

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

-0.8

-0.9

-1.6

-2.7

2-91

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

3-91

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.8

-0.4

4-91

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

4,823.0
4,831.8
4,893.6
-0.4

4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
4,855.2
1.9

4,878.0
4,873.5
4,872.5

-0.1

1-92

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.3

2.2

4.5

2-92

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

2.9

4,926.9
1.4

4,943.8

3-92

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.7

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.8

3.6

4.7

5.8

1-93

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.4

-0.8

2-93

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.2

3.2

3-93

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.0

2.7

3.0

2.9

1.9

3.3

3.3

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4,988.6
5,059.6
5,048.9
5,089.1
5,130.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

1-89

0.1

2-89

0.6

1.1

3-89

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.8

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0

2.8

3,264.4

2-90

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.5

2.1

4-90

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.8

-2.8

2-91

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-0.6

1.8

3-91

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

1.5

1.3

4-91

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

0.0

1.0

0.7

0.0

1-92

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.9

1.8

1.9

2.2

3,271.6
3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.7
3,256.9
3,267.1
3,267.5
4.3

3,302.3

2-92

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

3.0

1.8

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.4

3.0

4.2

4-92

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

4.0

3.8

4.9

5.6

1-93

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.3

2.1

3.4

3-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.5

3.3

3.6

3.5

2.8

3.8

4.2

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3,316.8
3,350.9
3,397.2
3,403.8
3,432.7
3,467.9

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88
1-89

-5.4

2-89

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-93

1-93

222.2

-8.6 -11.7

215.4

3-89

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

211.2

4-89

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-4.9

-4.8

-2.3

0.4

2-90

-7.3

-7.6

-6.6

-6.3

3-90

-9.6 -10.2

208.0
211.6

7.1

201.2

-6.4 -18.3

189.0

-9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

4-90

-11.5 -12.4 -12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

176.3

1-91

-13.2 -14.1 -14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5

163.8

2-91

-11.9 -12.6 -12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1

1.2

164.3

3-91

-9.5

-9.9

-9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2

-9.5

-4.0

9.0

17.3

4-91

-7.4

-7.5

-7.1

-7.1

-7.2

-7.5

-4.2

1.6

12.6

18.8

-9.1

171.0
20.3

179.1

1-92

-5.7

-5.7

-5.2

-4.9

-4.8

-6.2

-4.3

-1.0

4.5

13.7

18.2

18.6

16.8

2-92

-4.0

-3.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-3.4

-1.4

2.0

7.2

15.3

19.1

19.6

19.3

186.2
21.8

195.6

3-92

-3.6

-3.5

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-3.0

-1.1

1.9

6.3

12.8

15.3

14.7

12.9

11.0

1.2

4-92

-1.7

-1.4

-0.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.8

4.9

9.3

15.4

18.0

18.1

17.6

17.8

15.9

32.8

1-93

-1.5

-1.2

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0

1.8

4.6

8.4

13.6

15.5

15.2

14.2

13.5

10.9

16.1

1.5

2-93

-1.9

-1.7

-1.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.8

12.0

11.3

9.8

8.5

5.4

6.9

-4.1

-9.5

3-93

-1.4

-1.1

-0.5

0.0

0.4

-0.1

1.5

3.8

6.8

10.7

11.8

11.1

9.9

8.8

6.3

7.6

0.4

-0.2

10.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

196.2
210.6
211.4
206.2
211.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
539.5

1-89

0.5

2-89

1.3

2.0

3-89

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

542.2
541.8
536.7
550.2

1-90

1.7

2.0

2.0

3.1

10.4

2-90

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.7

2.9

-4.1

3-90

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-1.4

-1.7

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-5.2

-5.6 -10.5 -13.2

2-91

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-4.7

-4.9

-8.0

-8.1

-2.7

3-91

-1.8

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

-4.6

-4.7

-7.0

-6.7

-3.3

-3.8

4-91

-2.1

-2.3

-2.7

-3.0

-2.9

-4.7

-4.8

-6.6

-6.3

-3.9

-4.5

-5.1

1-92

-1.6

-1.8

-2.2

-2.4

-2.2

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

-4.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.9

3.5

2-92

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-1.4

1.1

2.1

4.2

9.2

15.1

3-92

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-1.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.7

1.6

2.5

4.1

7.4

9.3

3.8

4-92

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.3

2.4

3.3

4.8

7.4

8.8

5.7

7.6

1-93

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

1.8

3.8

4.8

6.3

8.8

10.1

8.5

11.0

14.4

2-93

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.5

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.2

5.2

6.2

7.7

10.1

11.4

10.5

12.8

15.5

16.6

3-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.7

2.2

2.7

2.5

3.5

5.3

6.2

7.6

9.5

10.5

9.6

11.1

12.3

11.3

6.3

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

521.4
517.8
512.8
506.1
510.5
528.8
533.8
543.7
562.3
584.3
593.3

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-89

15.7

2-89

16.0

16.3

3-89

10.7

8.3

0.8

4-89

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

11.5

10.4

8.5

12.6

12.1

2-90

10.8

9.8

8.3

10.9

9.8

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-93

1-93

454.5
472.0
472.9
487.7
501.8
7.6

511.1

3-90

8.9

7.8

6.2

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

9.0

8.0

6.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

1-91

7.8

6.9

5.6

6.5

5.2

3.5

2.2

4.3

-0.8

2-91

8.9

8.2

7.2

8.2

7.4

6.5

6.2

9.1

8.8

19.4

3-91

8.4

7.7

6.8

7.5

6.8

5.9

5.6

7.5

6.8

10.9

3.0

4-91

8.8

8.2

7.4

8.2

7.6

6.9

6.8

8.7

8.4

11.7

8.0

13.3

1-92

8.5

7.9

7.2

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

9.9

7.0

9.0

508.6
520.4

9.6

519.4
542.9
546.9
564.2
571.0

4.9

2-92

7.8

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.3

7.8

5.0

5.7

2.1

-0.6

3-92

7.7

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.7

6.3

7.5

5.3

5.9

3.6

2.9

6.5

4-92

7.8

7.3

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

6.6

7.7

5.9

6.5

4.9

4.8

7.6

8.8

1-93

7.2

6.6

6.0

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.6

6.4

4.7

4.9

3.4

3.0

4.2

3.0

-2.4

2-93

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.2

5.8

5.3

5.1

5.8

5.4

6.1

4.5

4.8

3.4

3.1

4.0

3.2

0.5

3.6

3-93

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.8

5.3

4.8

4.6

5.2

4.8

5.3

3.9

4.0

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.1

0.0

1.2

-1.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

570.2
579.3
591.6
588.0
593.2
591.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-89

-4.8

2-89

0.4

5.8

3-89

2.4

6.2

6.5

4-89

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

3.2

5.3

5.1

4.4

5.6

2-90

3.6

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.5

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
534.3
541.9
550.5
555.0
562.6

5.4

570.0

3-90

3.1

4.5

4.2

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

1.5

2.4

1.9

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

0.0

0.6

-0.1

-1.2

-2.0

-3.8

-6.7 -10.1 -11.1

2-91

1.1

1.8

1.3

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-0.4

11.7

3-91

2.0

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

11.7

4-91

2.4

3.1

2.8

2.4

2.3

1.8

1.2

1.4

4.2

9.9

9.0

6.3

1-92

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.8

4.1

8.4

7.3

5.1

2-92

3.4

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

6.0

9.8

9.3

8.6

9.7

15.9

3-92

3.8

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.4

6.5

9.7

9.3

8.7

9.5

12.5

9.2

4-92

3.9

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.5

6.4

9.1

8.7

8.1

8.5

10.2

7.4

5.6

1-93

4.3

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.2

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.7

9.2

10.5

8.8

8.6

11.6

2-93

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.9

7.5

9.9

9.6

9.3

9.8

11.1

9.9

10.1

12.5

13.3

3-93

4.7

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.6

7.0

9.0

8.7

8.4

8.7

9.5

8.2

8.0

8.8

7.4

1.9

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

570.7
-9.1

557.2
541.0
556.2
11.8

571.9
580.7
3.8

586.2
608.2
621.8
630.3
647.9
668.4
671.5

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




17

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-89

-1.6

2-89

1.8

5.3

3-89

2.6

4.9

4.5

4-89

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

3.0

4.2

3.8

3.5

7.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
890.8
902.3
912.2
912.6
928.1

2-90

2.7

3.6

3.1

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

2.2

2.9

2.4

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.6

3.3

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.8

2-91

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.1

2.3

3.3

2.1

1.4

3-91

2.1

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

0.7

-0.3

-2.0

4-91

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.7

-1.8

-3.4

-4.7

1-92

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.1

-0.6

-1.3

-0.9

3.0

2-92

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

1.0

-1.0

3-92

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.1

-0.2

0.3

2.0

1.5

4.1

4-92

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

0.5

1.3

-1.4

1-93

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.3

-1.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-3.9

-6.4

2-93

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

4.3

3-93

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.5

0.1

-0.3

-0.2

-1.2

-1.2

1.5

-1.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

930.6
929.2
942.4
948.9
952.3
947.6
936.2
943.1
940.7
950.2
946.9
931.3
941.1
938.4

Third quarter data are advance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

15.0

1-89

2.3

-9.1

2-89

1.7

-4.4

3-89

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

3-92

4-92

1-93

369.4
369.9

0.5

-8.2

357.3
-3.1

354.5
382.6

1-90

3.1

0.9

3.6

4.6

14.7

35.7

2-90

6.7

5.4

8.6

10.7

19.9

33.3

3-90

0.3

-1.6

-0.3

-0.5

2.9

4-90

-0.3

-2.1

-1.0

-1.3

1-91

0.4

-1.1

0.0

2-91

0.5

-0.8

3-91

-0.6

4-91

1.1

31.0

409.3

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

367.5

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

-0.1

2.2

3.3

-3.5 -12.8

1.0

7.4

0.2

0.1

2.1

3.0

-2.5

-9.4

1.2

4.5

-1.9

-1.1

-1.3

0.2

0.7

-4.2 -10.0

-2.3

-1.4

0.0

0.9

1.0

2.6

3.4

-0.6

2.5

4.4

-5.0

362.8
369.3
370.8

1.6

359.0

-5.5 -12.1
3.4

4.4

24.0

378.8
409.9

1-92

3.3

2.5

3.5

3.8

5.6

6.7

3.5

0.1

7.6

10.3

11.0

14.3

30.4

37.1

2-92

3.2

2.4

3.4

3.6

5.3

6.2

3.3

0.3

6.7

8.8

9.1

11.0

20.0

18.1

-0.8

-0.1

-0.2

0.9

1.3

-1.6

5.0

6.6

7.4

5.2

0.2

2-92

378.3

4-88

3-92

1-92

-4.7

0.0

0.7

4-92

4.4

3.8

4.7

2.9

8.3

10.1

1-93

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.2

5.6

6.3

4.1

2.0

6.7

8.1

2-93

4.9

4.3

5.2

5.5

6.9

7.6

5.7

3.8

8.3

9.8

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

-0.3

-0.7

2.4

411.7

1.8

367.5

-4.0 -19.6 -36.5

439.5

14.0 104.6

12.0

17.6

16.0

9.7

9.1

13.2

11.1

5.4

6.7

38.2

-6.6

10.1

11.2

14.9

13.5

9.3

11.3

34.2

8.6

26.3

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

10.5
8.2

432.1
458.1

Corporate profits with capital consunption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are final estinates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

<*-88

9.2

1-89

7.6

6.0

2-89

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

5.8

5.1

4.9

9.4

14.3

20.1

2-90

6.4

5.9

5.9

9.6

12.9

15.0

10.1

3-90

1.8

0.7

-0.1

1.4

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

4-90

3.6

2.9

2.5

4.2

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

5.9

5.5

5.5

7.4

8.7

8.7

6.0

4.7

24.0

28.8

2-91

6.0

5.7

5.6

7.4

8.5

8.4

6.2

5.2

18.1

17.4

3-91

4.4

4.0

3.8

5.1

5.7

5.3

3.0

1.6

9.8

6.8

4-91

5.8

5.6

5.5

6.9

7.7

7.6

5.9

5.2

12.7

11.1

5.7

5.1

25.0

1-92

5.9

5.6

5.6

6.9

7.6

7.5

6.0

5.4

11.7

10.2

5.9

5.6

15.4

6.6

2-92

5.9

5.7

5.6

6.8

7.4

7.3

5.9

5.4

10.8

9.4

5.9

5.6

12.1

6.1

3-92

6.3

6.1

6.1

7.2

7.8

7.7

6.6

6.2

11.0

9.8

6.9

6.9

12.1

8.1

8.9

4-92

4.7

4.4

4.3

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.1

3.5

7.4

6.0

3.1

2.4

5.5

1.1

-0.6

1-93

5.7

5.5

5.5

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.7

5.3

9.0

7.9

5.6

5.4

8.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

1.6

2-93

4.6

4.4

4.3

5.1

5.4

5.2

4.1

3.6

6.8

5.6

3.3

2.8

5.1

2.0

1.2

0.1

-3.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
814.8
826.7
811.0
811.2
828.6
867.4
888.5
825.5
863.1
919.4

7.0

935.0

-2.8 -11.6

906.6
958.7
974.1
5.7

987.7
12.2

1,016.5

-3.7 -17.3

969.4
24.9

1,024.8

3.9 -13.5
4-92

988.3

1-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

19

B u sin ess P rod uctivity and C om pen sation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4-88

0.4

1-89

-1.1

-2.5

2-89

-0.8

-1.4

-0.4

3-89

-1.0

-1.4

-0.9

-1.4

4-89

-0.8

-1.1

-0.6

-0.7

0.0

1-90

-0.4

-0.5

0.0

0.1

0.9

1.8

2-90

0.2

0.1

0.7

0.9

1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

-0.1

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.6

-0.2

0.2

1.5

2-91

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

1982 = 100
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

110.9
110.2
110.1
109.7
109.7
110.2
111.1
110.8
110.5
110.9
111.6
111.9

3-91

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.6

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.1

4-91

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.5

2.2

2.4

2.3

3.6

1-92

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.6

2.1

2.7

3.1

3.2

4.3

5.1

2-92

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.7

3.8

2.5

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

4.2

4-92

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.3

1-93

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2-93

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89




112.9
114.3
115.0
116.2

2.4

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.8

3.9

3.4

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.9

3.5

4.0

3.8

1.8

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.8

2.2

2.1

1.0

-1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.5

1.3

0.3

-1.4

-1.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2.6

117.3
116.8
116.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 9, 1993

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

4-88

4.9

1-89

6.0

7.1

2-89

5.8

6.3

5.6

3-89

6.2

6.7

6.5

7.5

4-89

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.1

8.7

1-90

8.1

8.7

9.1

10.3

11.8

15.0

2-90

8.6

9.2

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

11.5

3-90

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

11.9

4-90

9.5

10.1

10.5

11.3

12.1

13.0

12.3

12.7

Initial Quarter
Dollars
4-90 1-91 2-91

3-90

Billions of
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
2,086.6
2,122.5
2,151.7
2,190.8
2,236.9

2,316.3
2,380.4
2,448.3
2,527.5

13.6

1-91

9.4

10.0

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.5

11.3

9.1

2-91

9.7

10.1

10.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

11.6

11.6

11.5

10.5

11.8

3-91

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.7

12.2

12.7

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

4-91

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.5

11.9

12.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.9

9.7

1-92

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.2

11.9

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.3

12.5

10.7

2-92

10.4

10.9

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.1

12.2

11.9

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

13.2

3-92

10.4

10.8

11.0

11.5

11.8

12.1

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.0

11.0

11.5

11.4

9.6

4-92

10.2

10.5

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

11.3

11.2

10.3

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

1-93

10.0

10.3

10.5

10.9

11.1

11.3

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.6

10.7

10.6

9.7

9.7

9.2

7.9

7.1

6.9

2-93

10.2

10.5

10.7

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.2

11.1

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.9

10.2

10.3

10.0

9.2

9.1

10.0

13.2

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2,583.4
2,656.6
2,757.6

16.1

2,822.2
2,901.1

11.7

2,992.5
3,061.7
3,116.5
3,168.6
3,268.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
Investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

463.8
472.7
480.7
488.9

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.0

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

508.4
529.1
538.9
545.9

1993 March
June

4226.4
4356.4

1058.9
1089.9

3168.6
3268.6

312.7
328.5

2869.2
2953.2

565.5
566.9

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Expenditures
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or deficit( - )
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-149.9
-206.3
-182.0
-187.2

-133.7
-183.7
-179.5
-190.6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
-223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1115.8
1120.3
1132.6
1142.5

1160.1
1173.7

1257.9
1319.3
N .A.
N .A.

-145.2
- 206.2
-217.7
-244.7

- 97.8
-145.6

N.A.
N.A.

1261.0
1326.5
1350.2
1387.2

1992 1
2
3
4

1165.9
1176.1
1169.1
1221.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1436.1
1456.0
1459.8
1485.3

N .A.
N .A.
N .A.
N .A.

-270.2
-279.9
-290.7
- 264.2

N .A.
N .A.
N .A.
N .A.

1993 1
2
3

1218.4
1268.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1481.9
1490.6
1480.2

N .A.
N .A.
N.A.

-263.5
-222.6

N .A.
N .A.
N .A.

N .A .

N .A.
N .A.

N .A.

N .A . — N o t Available
Fiscal years
Estimates

Actual
1986

1985
Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit

(- )

1987

769.1 $ 854.1
990.3
1003.9

$

734.1
946.4

$

$-

212.3

$ -2 2 1 .2

$ -1 4 9 .8

1988
$

1989

1990

1991

1992

909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5
1380.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8

$ -1 5 5 .2

$ -1 5 2 .5

$ -2 2 1 .4

$ -2 6 9 .5

$-

290.4

1993

1994

$ 1144.1 $ 1241.3
1425.2
1500.1
$ -2 8 1 .1

$ -2 5 8 .7

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )
Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$

788.6 $ 827.2
1028.2
969.9

$ -1 8 1 .4
$

$ -2 0 1 .0

$

913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1127.8 $ 1183.0
1109.0
1181.6
1459.3
1065.6
1273.6
1331.2

$ -1 5 1 .8

808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6
980.3
1029.4
1071.6

$ -1 7 1 .9

$ -1 8 5 .4

$ -1 5 4 .0

$ -1 3 6 .6
$

$ -1 2 2 .3

$ -1 6 6 .2

949.7 $ 1025.5
1115.9
1189.6

$ 1100.8
1278.1

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -1 6 4 .1

$ -2 0 3 .4

$ -2 7 6 .3

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B’s Mid-Session Review of the 1994 Budget using CBO economic assumptions (September 1, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

G overnm ent D eficit(—)/S u r p lu s( + )
Seasonally Adjusted

BWions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
293.5

1-89

-4.4

2-89

0.9

6.6

298.2
305.3

3-89

3.8

8.2

9.9

4-89

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

4.1

6.3

6.3

4.5

13.3

2-90

3.5

5.1

4.8

3.2

6.7

0.5

3-90

2.3

3.5

2.9

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

4.2

5.5

5.4

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

5.0

6.3

6.2

5.6

7.6

6.2

8.1

14.9

11.5

2-91

3.9

4.8

4.6

3.9

5.2

3.6

4.4

7.5

2.4

-6.0

302.5
312.1
312.5
309.1
322.5
331.4
326.3
321.2

3-91

2.9

3.7

3.4

2.6

3.5

1.9

2.2

3.9

-0.5

-6.1

-6.1

4-91

1.6

2.2

1.7

0.9

1.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

-3.5

-8.0

-9.0 -11.9

1-92

1.6

2.1

1.7

0.9

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

-2.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.5

1.4

2-92

1.3

1.7

1.3

0.6

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

-2.5

-5.1

-4.9

-4.5

-0.5

-2.4

3-92

1.7

2.2

1.9

1.2

1.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

-1.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.4

2.4

2.8

4-92

1.6

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

-1.1

-2.7

-2.2

-1.4

1.4

1.5

3.4

-1.3

315.7

1-93

0.6

0.9

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.5

-4.1

-3.8

-3.4

-1.6

-2.4

-2.4

-7.4 -13.1

304.8

311.2
312.3
310.4
8.4

316.7

2-93

0.8

1.1

0.8

0.2

0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-1.9

-3.3

-2.9

-2.4

-0.8

-1.2

-0.9

-3.8

-5.1

3.7

3-93

0.4

0.7

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-0.9

-1.0

-0.7

-2.3

-3.6

-3.3

-3.0

-1.6

-2.1

-2.1

-4.5

-5.6

-1.6

-6.7

307.6

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

302.3

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
su bscription in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-88
1-89

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91

4-90

14.4

Billions of Dollars
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

867.3

2-89

9.1

4.1

3-89

6.0

2.1

0.1

876.0

4-89

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

10.1

9.0

10.7

16.5

18.0

2-90

9.0

7.9

8.9

12.0

10.6

3.6

3-90

8.0

6.9

7.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

8.3

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

4.7

3.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

-1.7

-3.4

2-91

t.i

6.5

6.9

7.9

6.7

4.6

4.8

5.7

3.2

34.0

3-91

7.7

7.1

7.4

8.4

7.5

5.8

6.2

7.3

6.1

22.5

12.0

4-91

8.7

8.2

8.6

9.6

8.9

7.7

8.4

9.6

9.3

21.5

15.7

19.6

1-92

9.4

9.0

9.5

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.2

20.9

16.8

19.3

19.0

876.2
907.3
945.7
954.0
959.2
984.4

10.9

929.6

-6.1 -20.5

1,000.2
1,029.0
1,076.0
1,123.8

2-92

9.3

8.9

9.4

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.6

18.2

14.5

15.4

13.4

8.0

3-92

8.6

8.2

8.5

9.3

8.8

7.9

8.4

9.2

8.9

14.8

11.3

11.1

8.4

3.5

-0.9

4-92

8.7

8.3

8.6

9.3

8.8

8.0

8.5

9.2

9.0

14.0

11.0

10.8

8.7

5.5

4.2

9.6

1-93

8.3

7.9

8.2

8.8

8.3

7.6

7.9

8.5

8.3

12.5

9.8

9.4

7.4

4.7

3.7

6.0

2.6

2-93

7.9

7.6

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.1

7.4

7.9

7.6

11.3

8.8

8.3

6.5

4.2

3.3

4.7

2.3

2.0

3-93

7.4

7.0

7.2

7.7

7.2

6.5

6.7

7.1

6.7

9.9

7.5

7.0

5.3

3.2

2.2

3.0

0.9

0.1

-1.7

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

1,145.6
1,143.1
1,169.6
1,177.1
1,183.0
1,177.9

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
October 28, 1993

24