Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1992
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November 1992 N ational Economic Trends The Expansion Has (Finally) Arrived! The recent long, slow economic recovery has fos tered confusion over the nation’s economic perfor mance because output and unemployment have risen simultaneously. The advance estimate o f the nation’s real GDP shows that the economy broke out o f its recovery phase and began a cyclical expansion in third quarter 1992. A recovery begins at the trough, or bottom, o f a recession and ends when output reaches its previous cyclical peak. In the third quarter, real GDP grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate to $4,924.5 bil lion (1987 prices), slightly above the previous high of $4,902.7 billion reached in second quarter 1990. This recovery has been the slowest and longest since the 1938-39 recovery. In addition, it has been accompa nied by a 1.1 percentage point rise in the unemploy ment rate. Such a period o f rising output along with a rising unemployment rate is sometimes referred to as a growth recession. In the recent recession real GDP declined at a 2.9 percent rate from its peak in second quarter 1990 to its trough in first quarter 1991— a slower rate o f decline than in four o f the previous eight post-World War II re cessions and smaller than the 3.6 percent average rate of decline in these eight recessions. Over the same pe riod, the unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent o f the civilian labor force to 6.5 percent. A 0.2 percent labor force growth rate held down the rise in the unem ployment rate; both the rise in the unemployment rate and the labor force growth rate were the smallest in the nine postwar recessions. Even though the recent recession was mild com pared with the previous eight recessions, real GDP took six quarters to recover, rising at only a 1.8 percent rate. Five o f the earlier recoveries lasted three quarters and the other three were complete one quarter after the real GDP trough. Slow output growth was not the principal factor behind the rise in unemployment during the recovery, however. Civilian employment rose at a 0.5 percent rate during the recovery. If the labor force had continued to grow as slowly as it did during the recession, the unemployment rate would have declined to about 6 percent by third quarter 1992. Instead, labor force growth accelerated to a 1.3 percent rate, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.6 percent. Although numerous periods that fit the growth reces sion pattern have occurred, the recent unemployment rate rise is only the second to have occurred in the past nine recoveries. For the whole recession/recovery period, the 2.3 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate is smaller than the increase that occurred in five of the previous eight recession/recovery periods. Indeed, it equals the average unemployment rate increase in the previous eight episodes. From the second quarter 1990 GDP peak to third quarter 1992, civilian employment fell at a 0.2 percent rate, a smaller rate of decline than in half o f the eight previous recession/recovery peri ods. The principal difference was the unprecedented slow growth rate o f the labor force during the recent recession/recovery period, which equaled the five-year trend pace o f 0.9 percent. Nevertheless, even if labor force growth returns to this trend rate, employment growth will have to accelerate, for the unemployment rate to decline. — John A. Tatom Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809. C o n su m er P rice In d e k ^ 'A ll U rban C on su m ers Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Consumer Price Index (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Mon t h 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1982-84=100 1-92 2-92 3-9 2 4-92 5-92 6-9 2 7-9 2 8 -92 135.1 3-91 1.8 4-91 2.2 2.7 5-91 2.4 2.7 2.7 6-91 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.6 7-91 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 0.9 8-91 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.2 3.6 9-91 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 4.0 4.5 10-91 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.6 2.7 11-91 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 3.9 3.6 4.5 12-91 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.5 2.6 135.4 135.7 136.1 136.2 136.6 137.1 137.4 137.9 138.2 1-92 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.6 1.8 0.9 2-92 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.3 2.2 3.5 3-92 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.5 4.9 6.2 4-92 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.4 2.6 5-92 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.7 6-92 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.5 2.6 2.6 3.5 7-92 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.6 1.7 8-92 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.6 3.5 9-92 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.6 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3 -92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-9 2 138.3 138.7 139.4 139.7 139.9 140.3 140.5 140.9 141.2 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis October 15, 1992 2 Consumer Price Index - Food (Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Mon t h 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1982-54=100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 135.7 3-91 3.6 4-91 5.0 6.4 5-91 4.2 4.5 2.7 6-91 4.5 4.8 4.0 5.4 136.4 136.7 137.3 7-91 2.3 2.0 0.6 -0.4 -5.9 8-91 1.5 1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -4.3 -2.6 136.6 136.3 9-91 1.5 1.2 0.2 -0.4 -2.3 -0.4 1.8 10-91 1.2 0.9 0.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 -0.9 11-91 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.4 -0.5 0.9 2.1 2.2 5.4 12-91 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.4 2.7 4.5 3.6 1-92 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 -0.6 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.2 -0.9 -5.1 136.5 136.4 137.0 137.4 136.8 2-92 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.8 0.6 -0.9 3.6 3-92 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.7 2.0 1.5 4.9 6.3 4-92 1.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.4 0.9 3.0 2.7 -0.9 5-92 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.4 -0.2 1.1 0.3 -2.6 -4.3 6 -92 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.2 0.7 -1.2 -1.3 1.8 7 -92 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.2 -1.3 -1.4 0.0 8-92 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.0 1.5 3.5 4.4 11.0 9-92 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.7 2.3 4.0 4.7 8.1 5.3 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 6-92 7 -92 8-92 137.2 137.9 137.8 137.3 137.5 -1.7 137.3 138.5 139.1 Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 15, 1992 Consumer Price Index - Energy (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terainal Mo n t h Initial Mon t h 2-91 3-91 3-91 -24.5 4-91 -15.1 -4.6 5-91 -8.9 0.0 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1982-84=100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-9 2 5 -92 6 -92 7-92 8-92 101.3 100.9 4.9 101.3 6-91 -7.3 -0.8 1.2 -2.3 7-91 -7.0 -2.1 -1.2 -4.1 -5.8 8-91 -4.8 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 0.6 7.4 9-91 -3.8 0.2 1.2 0.3 1.2 4.9 2.4 10-91 -3.3 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 1.2 0.0 11-91 -1.9 1.3 2.2 1.8 2.6 4.8 4.0 4.8 9.9 12-91 -1.6 1.3 2.1 1.7 2.4 4.1 3.3 3.6 5.4 101.1 100.6 101.2 101.4 101.4 102.2 1.2 102.3 1-92 -3.0 -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 0.4 -0.9 -1.8 -2.3 -7.9 -16.2 2-92 -3.7 -1.5 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.2 -2.6 -3.5 -4.4 -8.7 -13.3 -10.2 3-92 -2.9 -0.8 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -2.1 -4.9 -6.9 -1.8 7.5 4-9 2 -2.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -3.0 -4.0 0.4 6.2 4.9 5-9 2 -1.7 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 -1.4 -1.9 2.1 6.6 6.1 7.4 6 -92 -0.1 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.4 3.1 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.2 2.4 6.5 11.2 12.5 16.5 26.4 7 -92 0.1 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.5 6.0 9.6 10.2 12.0 14.4 3.5 8-92 -0.1 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.9 4.8 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.5 0.6 -2.3 9 -92 -0.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.4 1.6 1.7 4.2 6.4 6.3 6.5 6.3 0.4 -1.2 0.0 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-9 2 4-9 2 5 -92 6-92 7 -92 8-92 100.8 99.9 100.5 100.9 101.5 103.5 103.8 103.6 103.6 P r e p a r e d by Federal Rese r v e Bank of St. Louis O cto b e r 15, 1992 3 P ro d u c er P rice In dex - F in ish ed Goods Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Producer Price Index - Finished Goods (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Month 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1982 * 100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 3-91 -3.9 4-91 -1.0 2.0 5-91 0.0 2.0 2.0 6-91 -0.5 0.7 0.0 -2.0 7-91 -0.8 0.0 -0.7 -2.0 -2.0 8-91 -0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.5 3.0 9-91 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 3.0 3.0 10-91 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 11-91 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.0 12-91 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.0 -1.0 1-92 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.7 -1.5 -1.9 2-92 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 3.0 3-92 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.5 1.0 2.5 4-92 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.7 3.0 3.0 4.0 5-92 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.0 6-92 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.0 7-92 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 8-92 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 9-92 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.5 4.0 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-9 2 4-92 5-9 2 6-92 7 -92 8-9 2 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.4 121.2 121.5 121.8 122.1 122.2 4 122.1 121.9 122.2 2.0 122.4 122.8 123.1 123.3 123.4 123.5 123.9 P r e p a r e d by Federal Rese r v e B a n k of St. Louis O ctober 14, 1992 C ivilian E m p lo y m e n t and U n e m p lo y m e n t R ate Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Initial Mo n t h T e r minal M onth 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 3-91 -1.1 4-91 2.3 5.8 5-91 -0.7 -0.5 -6.5 6-91 -0.1 0.3 -2.4 1.9 7-91 -0.4 -0.3 -2.2 0.0 -1.8 8-91 -0.8 -0.7 -2.3 -0.8 -2.2 -2.5 9-91 0.2 0.4 -0.6 0.9 0.6 1.9 6.4 10-91 -0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.5 2.0 -2.3 11-91 -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 0.1 -0.3 0.1 1.0 -1.6 -1.0 12-91 -0.2 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 1-92 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.1 0.9 1.8 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 Thousands of Persons 116,834 117,388 116,730 116,909 116,729 116,484 117,089 116,867 116,772 116,728 4.1 117,117 2-92 0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 1.0 -0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 -0.8 3-92 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.2 3.2 4-92 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 1.9 3. 3 3.4 5-9 2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.1 1.6 -0.2 6 -92 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.4 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 7-92 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 2.0 8-9 2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.8 -0.4 9-92 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-9 2 7-92 8-92 117,043 117,348 117,675 117,656 117,574 117,772 117,737 117,701 P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2, 1992 P a y ro ll E m p lo y m en t Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons Millions of Persons 125 125 115 105 95 Service—Producing Employment 85 75 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1990 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P a y r o l l E m p lo y m e n t (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Thou s a n d s of P ersons Initial Month Terminal Month 2-9 1 3 -9 1 3-9 1 -2 .3 4 -9 1 -2 .1 -1 .8 5-9 1 -1.1 -0 .4 4-9 1 5-9 1 6-9 1 7-9 1 8-91 9 - 9 1 1 0 -9 1 1 1-9 1 12-9 1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 108,344 108,178 1.0 108,265 6-9 1 -0.9 -0 .4 0.3 -0 .4 7-9 1 -0 .8 -0 .4 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .4 8-9 1 -0 .5 -0 .2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 108,227 108,190 108,267 9-9 1 -0 .4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 10-9 1 -0 .4 -0 .1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0 .1 11-9 1 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0.1 -0 .5 -0.9 12-9 1 -0 .4 -0 .2 0.0 -0 .2 -0.1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0.5 -0 .7 0.2 1 -9 2 -0.5 -0 .3 -0.1 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0.2 -0 .6 2-9 2 -0 .4 -0 .2 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 0.0 -0 .1 0.5 3-92 -0 .3 -0 .1 0.0 -0 .1 0.0 0.0 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 4-92 -0 .1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 2.0 5-92 0.0 0 .1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.3 108,293 108,285 -1 .6 108,139 108,154 108,100 108,142 108,200 108,377 108,496 6-92 -0 .1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 -0 .8 7-92 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0 .5 1.9 8-92 -0 .1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0 .6 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -1 .4 *»-92 -0 .1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0 .2 -0 .1 -1.0 -0 .6 2-9 1 3 -9 1 4 -9 1 5-9 1 6-9 1 7 -9 1 8-9 1 9-9 1 10 -9 1 1 1-9 1 12-9 1 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 6 108,423 108,594 108,466 108,409 Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis Oct o b e r 2, 1992 Service-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terminal Mo n t h Initial Honth 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 Thousands of Persons 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 84,406 3-91 -1.0 4-91 -1.1 -1.2 5-91 -0.4 0.0 1.2 6-91 -0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 7-91 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 -0.3 8-91 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.1 9-91 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 10-91 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 11-91 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 12-91 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.6 1-92 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 2-92 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 3 -92 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 4 -9 2 Û.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.6 5-92 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 6 -9 2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 7-92 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.3 2.6 8-92 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.1 -0.5 9 -92 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 84,318 84,401 84,418 84,398 84,476 84,538 84,581 84,526 84,570 84,573 84,617 84,668 84,847 84,948 84,953 85,135 85,102 85,091 P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis October 2, 1992 Goods-Producing Employment (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 Initial Ho n t h Persons 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 Thousands of 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6 -92 7-92 8-92 3-91 -6.9 4-91 -5.4 -3.8 5-91 -3.6 -1.8 0.2 6-91 -3.4 -2.1 -1.3 -2.7 7-91 -2.9 -1.8 -1.1 -1.8 -0.9 8-91 -2.4 -1.5 -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 -0.1 9-91 -2.3 -1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.8 10-91 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6 -1.3 -1.5 -2.2 -2.5 11-91 -2.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -3.0 -3.5 -4.5 12-91 -2.5 -2.0 -1.7 -2.0 -1.9 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -1.5 1-92 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.9 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 2-92 -2.3 -1.9 -1.7 -1.9 -1.8 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2 -1.5 -1.5 -0.1 3 -9 2 -2.1 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9 -1.7 -1.0 -0.9 0.1 0.4 4-9 2 -2.0 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 5-92 -1.8 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 6 -9 2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 -1.5 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -3.9 7-92 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.4 -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2 -2.2 -0.6 8-92 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 -2.7 -4.8 9-92 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -1.8 -2.1 -2.9 -2.6 -3.6 -2.3 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 23,938 23,860 23,864 23,809 23,792 23,791 23,755 23,704 23,613 23,584 23,527 23,525 23,532 23,530 23,548 23,470 23,459 23,364 23,318 Pre p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober Z , 1992 7 C hange in t h e E m p lo y m e n t Cost In dex and Its C o m p o n en ts Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T erninal Q uarter Initial Q uarter 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 1-88 5.2 2-88 5.2 5.2 3-88 4.7 4.5 3.8 4-88 4.8 4.7 4.4 5.1 1-89 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.8 4.6 2-89 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.1 3-89 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 June 1989 = 100 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 9 4.5 95.7 96.6 97.8 9 8.9 99.9 5.3 101.2 4-89 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 5.1 4.8 1-90 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.6 2-90 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.7 3-90 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 102.4 103.8 105.0 106.2 4-90 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4 .7 4.7 4.4 4.2 3.8 1-91 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4 .7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.9 2-91 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.5 3-91 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.1 4-91 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 107.2 108.5 109.7 110.8 111.9 1^92 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4 .5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 2-92 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.5 3-92 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.2 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 113.0 113.7 114.6 Data are for the last month of quarter P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis Octo b e r 27, 1992 8 In d u str ia l P r o d u c tio n Seasonally Adjusted 1987=100 1987=100 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Industrial Production (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Initial Mon t h 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 5-91 -7.7 4-91 -1.1 5.9 5-91 2.7 8.3 10.7 6-91 4.6 9.1 10.7 10.6 7-91 5.5 9.1 10.2 10.0 9.3 8-91 4.4 7.0 7.3 6.2 4.0 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1987 » 100 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 8-92 105.0 105.5 106.4 107.3 108.1 1 >-» Terminal Mo n t h 108.0 9-91 4.4 6.6 6.7 5.7 4.2 1.7 4.5 10-91 3.9 5.6 5.6 4.6 3.1 1.1 2.2 0.0 11-91 3.0 4.5 4.3 3.2 1.8 0.0 0.4 -1.6 -3.3 12-91 1.9 3.1 2.7 1.6 0.2 -1.5 -1.7 -3.6 -5.4 -7.5 1-92 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.3 -1.1 -2.8 -3.1 -4.9 -6.5 -8.0 -8.6 2-92 1.4 2.3 1.9 1.0 -0.1 -1.4 -1.5 -2.6 -3.3 -3.3 -1.1 7.0 3 -92 1.7 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8 -1.4 0.7 5.8 4.6 4 -92 1.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 2.0 5.7 5.1 5.7 5-92 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.3 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.5 3.4 6.6 6.5 7.5 6 -92 2.0 2.7 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.3 3.7 3.4 2.2 -4.3 7 -92 2.4 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.7 3.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.5 2.2 9.2 8-92 2.0 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.2 0.0 2.2 -4.3 9-92 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -3.8 -3.3 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-9 2 4-9 2 5-92 6 -92 7-92 8-92 108.4 108.4 108.1 107.4 106.6 107.2 107.6 108.1 9.3 108.9 108.5 109.3 108.9 108.6 P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank o f St. Louis O ctober 16, 1992 P e r so n a l In co m e in 1987 D ollars Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 1988 1987 1986 1990 1989 1992 1991 The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal M onth Initial Month 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 3-91 4.1 4-91 2.2 0.3 5-91 2.8 2.1 4.0 6-91 2.7 2.3 3.3 2.5 7-91 1.9 1.4 1.8 0.7 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 B i l lions of D ollars Annual R ates 8-92 3,494.3 3,49 5 . 2 3 ,506.6 3,513.9 3 ,510.4 -1.2 3,512.7 8-91 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.7 -0.2 0.8 9-91 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 10-91 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.8 2.4 3 ,511.3 5.3 3,526.4 11-91 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 -4.3 12-91 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.8 4.5 14.2 1-92 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.5 3.3 2.6 6.3 -1.1 2-92 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.8 3.4 6.1 2.3 5.8 3-92 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 6.0 3.4 5.6 5.5 4-92 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.7 4.1 1.8 2.7 1.3 -2.8 5-92 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.9 2.6 3.7 1.8 2.5 1.4 -0.6 1.8 6-92 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 3.1 1.3 1.8 0.9 -0.6 0.5 -0.8 7-92 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.7 1.1 1.5 0.6 -0.6 0.2 -0.6 -0.3 8-92 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.3 0.9 1.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 9-92 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.3 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5 -92 6-92 7-92 8-92 3,513.4 3 ,5 5 2 . 5 3 ,5 4 9 . 3 3 ,5 6 5 . 9 3 ,581.9 3 ,5 7 3 . 3 3 ,5 7 8 . 6 3 ,576.1 3,575.2 3 ,573.6 3 ,580.5 P r e p a r e d by Feueral Rese r v e B ank of St. Louis October 28, 1992 10 R etail S ales Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 170 150 130 110 90 1986 1988 1987 1989 1991 1990 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Mo n t h 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 3-91 8.0 4-91 0.1 -7.2 5-91 3.6 1.5 11.0 6-91 1.8 -0.2 3.4 -3.6 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 6-92 7 -92 8-92 Millions of Dollars 113,710 113,005 113,991 113,644 7-91 1.2 -0.4 2.0 -2.3 -0.9 8-91 -0.7 -2.4 -1.2 -4.9 -5.6 -9.9 9-91 -0.7 -2.0 -1.0 -3.8 -3.8 -5.2 -0.2 10-91 -0.6 -1.8 -0.9 -3.1 -3.0 -3.7 -0.4 -0.5 11-91 -1.5 -2.6 -1.9 -3.9 -4.0 -4.7 -2.9 -4.2 -7.8 12-91 -1.4 -2.4 -1.8 -3.5 -3.5 -4.0 -2.5 -3.2 -4.5 -1.1 113,554 112,567 112,547 112,496 111,742 111,635 1-92 1.1 0.4 1.3 0.2 0.7 1.0 3.3 4.2 5.8 13.4 30.0 2-92 1.9 1.4 2.3 1.4 2.0 2.5 4.7 5.7 7.3 12.9 20.6 3-9 2 0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 4.1 4-9 2 0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 1.1 1.3 1.6 3.5 5-92 0.5 0.0 0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.2 6-92 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 7-92 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.8 8-92 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.7 9-92 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.6 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 -0.5 1.4 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.9 1.1 3.6 2.4 114,106 11.9 115,179 5.9 -4.4 -18.3 113,252 4.7 -2.5 -9.0 1.3 4.6 -1.0 -4.9 2.6 3.8 3.0 -1.7 -4.8 0.2 -0.3 -4.3 3.8 12.5 113,375 113,732 113,316 4.3 0.6 -1.5 3.2 3.8 2.8 3.3 -0.1 -1.9 1.7 1.8 1.2 4.0 -3.8 2.6 3.0 0.0 -1.6 1.5 1.6 1.0 2.9 -1.7 0.5 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-9 2 6-92 7 -92 8-92 2.0 2.3 3.6 114,437 114,068 114,115 Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100). P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 14, 1992 11 In v e n to r ie s C om pared With M onthly S a les Manufacturing and Trade Seasonally Adjusted 1.58 1.54 1.54 1.50 1.50 1.46 1.46 1-- 1-- r 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Manufacturing and Trade Inventories (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Month Initial Mo n t h 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 2-91 -3.5 3-91 -7.7 -11.7 4-91 -5.8 -6.9 -1.9 5-91 -5.9 -6.7 -4.0 -6.1 6-91 -5.7 -6.2 -4.3 -5.5 -5.0 7-91 -5.0 -5.2 -3.5 -4.1 -3.1 -1.1 8-91 -4.3 -4.4 -2.9 -3.2 -2.2 -0.7 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 5-92 6-92 7-92 Mil l i o n s of Dollars 838,491 8 29,818 8 28, 5 0 8 8 24, 1 7 7 820,671 8 19,898 819.684 -0.3 9-91 -3.3 -3.3 -1.8 -1.8 -0.6 0.8 1.8 4.1 10-91 -2.6 -2.5 -1.1 -0.9 0.1 1.5 2.3 3.7 3.4 11-91 -2.2 -2.1 -0.8 -0.6 0.3 1.4 2.1 2.9 2.3 1.2 12-91 -1.7 -1.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.8 1.8 2.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 4.0 1-92 -2.0 -1.9 -0.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -5.7 2-92 -1.8 -1.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -2.6 0.7 822,401 8 24,672 825 , 5 0 5 828,184 824,150 824 , 6 0 9 3-92 -1.5 -1.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 -1.0 1.5 2.3 4-92 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.2 2.2 3.0 3.6 5-92 -1.2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 1.7 1.3 -0.9 6-92 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3 0.9 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.4 5.7 7-92 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.7 I-9 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.4 3 .3 5.4 5.2 8-92 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.3 3.5 3 .5 5.0 4.6 4.0 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 7-91 8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4 -92 5-92 6-92 7-92 826,204 8 28,630 828 , 0 3 2 8 31,872 835,373 838,101 P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 15, 1992 12 Gross D o m estic P ro d u ct Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 6.8 -------------------r 6 .8 Current Dollars — I-- T_ 1986 1987 1-- 1-- r 1988 1989 1990 1-- 1-- r 1991 1992 Shaded area represents a period of business recession. Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Quarter Annu a l Rat e s 4 - 8 9 1-90 2-90 B i l l i o n s of D ollars 3-90 4-90 1-88 2.6 2-88 3.5 4.3 3-88 3.2 3.4 2.5 4-88 3.3 3.6 3.2 3.9 1-89 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.5 3.2 2-89 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.5 1.8 3-89 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 0.9 0.0 4-89 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.5 1-90 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.4 2.2 2.8 2-90 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.0 3-90 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.3 -1.6 4-90 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -1.6 -2.8 -3.9 1-91 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.9 -2.9 -3.5 -3.0 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2 -92 4,655.3 4,704.8 4,734.5 4,779.7 4,817.6 4,8 3 9 . 0 4,839.0 4,856.7 4,890.8 4,902.7 4,882.6 4,833.8 4,796.7 2-91 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -1.8 -0.7 1.7 3-91 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.5 1.2 4-91 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.6 1-92 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.9 2-92 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.5 3-9 2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 1-8 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.7 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 4,817.1 4,831.8 4,838.5 4,873.7 4 ,8 9 2 . 4 4,924.5 Third q uarter 1992 data are advance estimates. P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R eserve B a n k of St. Louis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 13 Im p licit P rice D efla to r fo r GDP Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 1986 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Implicit Price Deflator (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Qua r t e r 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 1987 = 100 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 102.1 1-88 3.6 2 -88 4.0 4.4 3-88 4.4 4.8 5.1 4-88 4.2 4.5 4.5 3.9 1-8 9 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 5.4 2-8 9 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.6 3-89 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.2 3.8 4-89 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.7 3.7 1-90 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.4 2-90 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 3-90 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 4-90 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.9 1-91 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.6 5.3 2-91 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 3.5 3-91 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 2.9 2.4 4-91 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.4 1-9 2 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.1 2-9 2 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 3-92 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.0 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-8 8 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 103.2 104.5 105.5 106.9 108.1 109.1 110.1 111.3 112.6 113.9 115.0 116.5 117.5 118.2 118.9 119.8 1 20.6 121.2 T h i r d quarter 1992 d a t a are a dvance estimates. P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e B ank of St. L ouis Octo b e r 27, 1992 14 Final Sales in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T erainal Q uarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-88 6.3 2-88 5.5 4.6 3 -8 8 4.3 3.2 1.9 4-88 4.2 3.5 3.0 4.1 1-89 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.8 1.5 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Quarter Annual R a t e s 4-89 1-90 2-90 B i l lions of Doll a r s 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 4 ,63 6 . 2 4 ,68 8 . 7 4,710.9 4,7 5 8 . 7 4,776.3 4 ,802.0 2-89 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.2 3-89 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.4 1.8 2.0 1.8 4 -89 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.7 1-90 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 4.3 2-90 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 -1.1 3-90 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 -0.5 0.1 4-90 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 1-91 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -1.3 -1.3 -2.0 -3.2 2-91 1.7 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 1.3 3-91 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 4-91 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.0 1-92 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.3 4.7 2-92 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.5 2.2 -0.1 3-92 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.2 1.0 2.1 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 4 ,823.0 4,831.8 4 ,88 3 . 3 4 ,870.0 4 ,871.4 4 ,86 0 . 6 4 ,821.8 4,837.4 4,831.2 4,830.9 4 ,8 8 6 . 3 4 ,8 8 4 . 6 4 ,9 0 9 . 8 Pr e p a r e d b y Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terainal Qua r t e r 4-8 7 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Quarter A n nual Rat e s 4 - 8 9 1-90 2-90 B i l l i o n s of Doll a r s 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3,128.2 1-88 7.1 2-88 4.8 2.5 3-88 4.2 2.7 2.9 4-88 4.2 3.2 3.5 4.1 1-89 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 0.1 2-89 3.0 2.1 2.0 1.8 0.6 1.1 3 -89 3.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.9 4-89 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 0.8 1-90 2.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.2 3 ,14 7 . 8 3,17 0 . 6 3,202.9 3,203.6 3,212.2 3,235.3 3,242.0 3,259.5 3 ,26 0 . 1 2-90 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.1 0.1 3-90 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.7 4-90 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 1-91 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.5 -3.1 -3.0 2-91 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.4 -0.5 2.0 3,273.9 3 ,24 8 . 0 -3.1 3,223.5 3,239.3 3-91 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 4-91 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 1.1 0.6 -0.3 1-92 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.0 2.0 2.1 2.4 5.1 2-92 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 2.4 -0.1 3 -92 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.8 1.6 3.4 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3,251.2 3,2 4 9 . 0 3,289.3 3,288.5 3,316.1 Th i r d quarter 1992 d ata a r e advance estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F ederal Rese r v e Bank of St. L ouis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 15 Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Qua r t e r Initial Quarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4 -88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-88 -5.8 2-88 -1.2 3.7 3 -88 0.1 3 .2 2.7 4 -88 0.9 3.2 3.0 3.3 1-89 -0.4 1.0 0.1 -1.2 -5.4 2-89 -2.4 -1.7 -3.0 -4.8 -8.6 -11.7 3-89 -3.1 -2.7 -3.9 -5.5 -8.3 -9.7 -7.6 4-89 -3.5 -3.2 -4.2 -5.6 -7.7 -8.4 -6.8 -5.9 1-90 -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 -3.9 -5.2 -5.2 -2.9 -0.5 2-90 -4.0 -3.8 -4.7 -5.7 -7.1 -7.4 -6.3 -5.9 3-90 -5.9 -5.9 -6.9 -8.0 -9.5 -10.2 4-90 -7.4 -7.5 -8.6 -9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4 1-91 -9.0 -9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9 2-91 -8.0 -8.1 -9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6 3-91 -6.6 -6.7 -7.5 -8.3 -9.2 4-91 -5.6 -5.6 -6.2 -6.9 -7.7 1-92 -4.3 -4.2 -4.7 -5.2 -5.8 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 Bi l l i o n s of D ollars A nnual Ra t e s 2-92 220.0 222.0 223.5 225.3 222.2 215.4 211.2 208.0 5.3 210.7 -5.9 -15.9 201.8 -9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9 -9.4 -9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8 -7.9 -7.5 -7.5 -7.7 -9.4 -5.8 -5.3 -5.0 -4.9 -6.1 -9.6 189.1 177.5 164.1 7.0 1 66.9 -8.7 -3.7 10.6 14.4 -8.3 -5.0 -0.1 10.9 12.9 11.3 -4.7 -1.2 3.6 13.1 15.2 15.6 20.1 1 72.6 177.3 1 85.6 2-92 -3.4 -3.2 -3.7 -4.1 -4.6 -4.5 -3.9 -3.6 -3.3 -4.2 -2.7 0.6 5.1 13.0 14.6 14.6 16.3 12.6 3 -92 -3.2 -3.0 -3.4 -3.8 -4.3 -4.2 -3.6 -3.2 -3.0 -3.8 -2.3 0.6 4.4 10.8 11.6 10.9 10.7 6.3 0.4 191.2 4-87 1-88 2-88 3 -88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 191.4 P r e pared by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 27, 1992 Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Te r m i n al Quarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3 -88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Q uarter Annual R ates 4-89 1-90 2-90 B i l lions of Dol l a r s 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 1-88 5 .7 2-88 8.3 11.0 3-8 8 6.5 6.9 2.9 4-88 5.5 5.5 2.8 1-89 4.5 4.2 2.0 1.6 0.5 2-89 4.1 3.8 2.0 1.7 1.3 2.0 3 -89 3.4 3.1 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.9 -0.3 4-8 9 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -2.0 -3.7 1-90 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.1 6.2 2-90 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -0.4 -6.6 3-90 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 1.5 -0.7 5 .6 4-90 1.2 0.8 -0.2 - 0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.8 -1.4 -3.8 -2.3 -9.6 529.3 1-91 -0.2 -0.7 -1.7 -2.1 -2.7 -3.1 -3.8 -4.3 -4.5 -6.9 -7.1 -12.8 -15.8 5 07.0 517.7 531.4 535.2 2.7 538.8 53 9 . 5 542.2 541.8 536.7 5 44.8 5 35.6 5 42.9 2-91 -0.4 -0.9 -1.8 - 2.2 -2.7 -3.1 -3.7 -4.2 -4.2 -6.2 -6.1 -9.7 -9.7 -3.1 3-91 -0.6 -1.1 -1.9 - 2.3 -2.8 -3.1 -3.6 -4.1 -4.1 -5.7 -5.6 -8.1 -7.6 -3.2 -3.4 4-91 -0.9 -1.3 -2.2 - 2.6 -3.0 -3.3 -3.8 -4.2 -4.2 -5.6 -5.5 -7.6 -7.0 -3.9 -4.3 -5.2 1-92 -0.7 -1.1 -1.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.5 -3.5 -4.6 -4.3 -5.9 -5.1 -2.2 -1.9 -1.2 3.0 2-92 0.2 -0.1 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.0 -3.0 -1.8 1.2 2.3 4.3 9.4 16.1 3-9 2 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.7 -2.6 -1.5 1.1 1.9 3.3 6.3 7.9 0.3 4-87 1-88 2-88 3 -88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-9 2 2-92 5 03.0 4 98.7 4 92.1 49 5 . 8 5 14.7 515.1 T h i r d quarter 1992 data a r e adv a n c e estinates. P r e p a r e d b y Federal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Lcuis O ctober 27, 1992 16 Exports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Q uarter 4-87 1-88 23.6 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Quarter Annu a l Ra t e s 1-90 2-90 4-89 Bi l l i o n s of D o l l a r s 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 407.1 2-88 16.8 10.3 3-88 13.3 8.5 6.8 41 7 . 2 4-88 13.5 10.3 10.3 3.4.0 424.1 43 8 . 2 45 4 . 5 1-89 13.9 11.6 12.1 14.9 15.7 2-89 14.3 12.6 13.1 15.3 16.0 16.3 3-89 12.3 10.5 10.5 11.5 10.7 8.3 0.8 4-89 12.4 10.9 11.0 11.8 11.3 9.9 6.8 13.1 1-90 12.2 10.8 10.9 11.6 11.2 10.1 8.0 11.9 10.7 2-90 11.7 10.4 10.4 11.0 10.5 9.4 7.8 10.2 8.8 7.0 3-90 10.5 9.3 9.2 9.5 8.9 7.8 6.1 7.5 5.7 3.3 -0.2 4-90 10.6 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.2 8.3 7.0 8.3 7.2 6.0 5.5 11.6 1-91 9.3 8.2 8.0 8.2 7.5 6.5 5.2 6.0 4.6 3.1 1.9 3.0 -5.0 2-91 9.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.4 7.6 6.6 7.4 6.5 5.7 5.4 7.3 5.2 16.6 472.0 472.9 48 7 . 7 50 0 . 2 50 8 . 7 5 08.4 522.6 5 15.9 536.1 3-91 9.6 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.2 7.5 6.5 7.3 6.5 5.8 5.5 7.0 5.5 11.3 6.2 4-91 9.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.6 8.0 7.2 7.9 7.3 6.8 6.8 8.3 7.4 11.9 9.7 5 44.2 561.4 13.3 5 65.4 1-92 9.4 8.6 8.4 8.6 8.2 7.5 6.8 7.4 6.8 6.3 6.2 7.3 6.5 9.6 7.4 7.9 2.9 2-92 8.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.4 6.8 6.1 6.6 5.9 5.4 5.2 6.0 5.1 7.3 5.1 4.7 0.7 -1.4 3-92 8.4 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.7 6.2 5.6 5.1 4.9 5.5 4.7 6.4 4.4 4.0 1.1 0.2 1.9 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 563.4 566.0 P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 Imports in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) Terainal Q uarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 Initial Quarter Annual Ra t e s 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 B i l l i o n s of Dol l a r s 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 52 0 . 5 1-88 -1.2 2-88 -2.6 -4.0 3 -8 8 1.0 2.2 8.7 4-88 3.6 5.3 10.2 11.7 1-89 1.9 2.7 5.0 3.1 -4.8 2-89 2.5 3.3 5.2 4.0 0.4 5.8 3-89 3.1 3.8 5.4 4.6 2.4 6.2 6.5 4-89 3.1 3.7 5.1 4.4 2.6 5.2 4.9 3.3 1-90 3.0 3.6 4.7 4.1 2.6 4.5 4.1 3.0 2.6 2-90 3.3 3.8 4.8 4.2 3.0 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.9 3-90 3.1 3.5 4.4 3.9 2.8 4.1 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 1.5 4-90 2.1 2.4 3.0 2.4 1.3 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.1 -0.8 -3.6 -8.5 555.3 1-91 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.6 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 -2.0 -3.1 -4.4 -7.4 -11.6 -14.6 53 3 . 8 515.2 526.1 54 0 . 9 53 4 . 3 541.9 550.5 555.0 558 . 6 5.1 565.6 567.7 2-91 1.7 1.9 2.4 1.9 0.9 1.6 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -2.1 -3.3 -0.6 15.6 3-91 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.1 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.4 5.0 16.4 17.1 4-91 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.1 2.5 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 4.8 12.2 10.5 4.2 1-92 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.2 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.2 4.5 9.9 8.1 3.9 3.5 2-92 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.4 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.9 6.1 10. 9 9.7 7.4 9.0 14.7 3-92 3.6 3.9 4.4 4.1 3.6 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3 6.3 10.2 9.1 7.2 8.3 10.7 6.9 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-9 2 2-92 55 3 . 5 575 . 8 581.8 586 . 8 607 . 3 61 7 . 5 T h i r d q u arter 1992 data are advance estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 17 Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 B i l lions of Dollars Annual Rates 2-92 1-88 -4.1 2-88 -1.7 0.9 3-88 -1.4 0.0 -0.9 4-88 0.2 1.6 2.0 5.0 1-89 -0.2 0.8 0.8 1.6 -1.6 2-89 0.7 1.7 1.9 2.8 1.8 5.3 3 -89 1.2 2.1 2.4 3.2 2.6 4.9 4.5 4 -89 1.1 1.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.3 2.3 0.2 1-90 1.7 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.9 4.0 3.6 3.2 6.4 2-90 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.0 2.5 3.7 1.1 3-90 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.8 -0.4 -2.0 4-90 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.8 1.7 2.0 6.1 1-91 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.0 2.3 4.4 2.8 2-91 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 2.4 1.6 1.7 3.0 1.5 0.2 3-91 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.7 0.2 -1.0 -2.3 4-91 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.6 -1.7 -2.6 -3.0 1-92 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 2-92 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -1.2 -0.8 0.2 -1.2 3-92 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 0.4 2.0 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 883.7 885.6 883.7 894.5 890.8 902.3 912.2 912.6 926.8 929.4 924.8 938.5 945.1 945.6 940.2 933.1 937.0 934.2 938.8 T h i r d q uarter 1992 data are a dvance estimates. Prepared by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis October 27, 1992 Corporate Profits (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r minal Quarter 3-87 4 -87 4-8 7 6.4 1-88 8.5 10.7 2-88 10.5 12.5 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Q uarter Annual Rates 3-89 4-89 1-90 B i l lions of Dollars 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 343.3 352.1 14.5 364.2 3 -88 8.1 8.6 7.6 1.2 4-88 9.4 10.2 10.0 7.9 15.0 1-89 6.1 6.0 4.9 1.9 2.3 -9.1 2-89 5.3 5.1 4.0 1.6 1.7 -4.4 3-89 2.8 2-3 1.0 -1.5 -2.2 -7.3 -6.4 -12.9 4 -89 2.1 1.6 0.4 -1.8 -2.4 -6.3 -5.3 -8.2 -3.1 1-90 3.4 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.4 -2.3 -0.5 -0.8 5.8 15.6 365.3 378.3 369.4 0.5 369.9 357.3 3 54.5 3 67.6 2-90 4.7 4 .6 3.9 2.7 2.9 1.0 3.1 3.8 10.1 17.3 19.1 3-90 1.3 0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -1.9 -4.1 -3.3 -4.0 -1.7 -1.2 -8.6 -29.9 4-90 0.5 0.1 -0.8 -2.3 -2.6 -4.6 -4.0 -4.7 -3.0 -3.0 -8.5 -19.7 -8.2 1-91 1.0 0.6 - 0.2 -1.5 -1.7 -3.4 -2.7 -3.2 -1.4 -1.1 -4.9 -11.8 -1.0 6.7 2-91 0.7 0.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.8 -3.4 -2.7 -3.1 -1.6 -1.4 -4.4 -9.6 -1.6 1.9 -2.6 3-91 0.2 -0.2 -0.9 -2.0 -2.2 -3.7 -3.1 -3.5 -2.3 -2.2 -4.8 -9.0 -2.9 -1.1 -4.7 -6.8 4-91 0.6 0.3 -0.4 -1.4 -1.6 -2.8 -2.2 -2.5 -1.3 -1.0 -3.2 -6.5 -1.0 0.9 -1.0 -0.1 7.1 1-92 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.4 1.4 0.5 1.3 1.4 2.9 3.6 2.2 0.0 6.1 9.2 9.8 14.3 26.7 49.8 2-92 3.0 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.6 0.8 1.6 1.6 3.1 3.7 2.5 0.6 5.9 8.4 8.8 11.8 18.9 25.2 4.7 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 384.0 351.4 344.0 3 49.6 3 47.3 341.2 347.1 384.0 388.4 C o r p o r ate p r o f i t s wit h capital c o nsumption and inventory v aluation adjustments. S e cond q uarter d a t a a r e final estimates. Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 27, 1992 18 G ross Saving as a P e r c e n t o f GDP Seasonally Adjusted Percent Percent Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Gross Private Saving (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T erminal Q ua r t e r 3 -87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 Initial Quarter Annu a l R a t e s 3 -89 4-89 1-90 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 783.7 4 -87 43.6 1-88 25.0 8.8 2-88 15.4 3.4 -1.7 3 -88 11.3 2.3 -0.8 4 -88 10.9 4.0 2.4 4.5 9.2 1-89 10.1 4.4 3.3 5.0 7.6 6.0 2-89 7.4 2.3 1.1 1.8 2.3 -0.9 -7.4 3-89 6.4 2.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 -0.6 -3.7 0.1 4-89 6.7 2.8 2.0 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.3 4.4 8.9 1-90 7.5 4.0 3.5 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.7 7.6 11.6 8 00.4 797.0 0.0 7 97.0 814.8 826.7 811.0 81 1 . 2 828.6 14.4 85 6 . 9 2-90 7.8 4.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.2 5.1 8.4 11.4 12.7 11.0 3-90 4.7 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.4 -0.5 1.0 1.2 -1.2 -8.2 -24.1 4-90 5.8 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.4 2.7 2.2 3.9 4.7 3.7 0.4 -4.5 20.1 1-91 6.4 4.0 3.6 4.1 4.5 4.0 3.7 5.4 6.3 5.8 3.8 1.5 17.4 14.8 2-91 6.2 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.4 3.9 3.7 5.2 5.9 5.4 3.7 2.0 12.5 8.9 3.4 3-91 5.4 3.3 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.0 2.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 2.2 0.5 7.8 4.0 -1.0 -5. 2 4-91 6.5 4.5 4.2 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.6 5.8 6.5 6.2 5.1 4.1 11.0 8.8 6.9 8. 6 24.5 1-92 6.5 4.6 4.4 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.7 5.9 6.5 6.3 5.3 4.5 10.2 8.4 6.8 8.0 15.3 6.7 2-92 6.6 4.8 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.0 5.0 6.1 6.6 6.4 5.6 4.9 9.9 8.3 7.0 7.9 12.7 7.3 7.8 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-51 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 879.5 820.9 859.3 8 89.4 896.9 88 4 . 9 934.8 9 50.1 9 68.1 S e c o n d quarter 1992 dat a are final estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f St. Lo u i s O c t o b e r 27, 1992 B u sin e s s P r o d u c tiv ity and C o m p en sa tio n Percent Change From Previous Year Seasonally Adjusted Percent 198 6 1987 1988 1989 Percent 1990 1991 1992 Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Business Sector Output per Hour (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) T e r m i n al Quarter Initial Qua r t e r 3 -87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 1982 - 100 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 4-87 1.5 1-88 1.3 1.1 110.3 2-88 0.2 -0.4 -1.8 3-88 0.5 0.2 -0.2 1.5 4-88 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.0 1-89 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -1.4 -2.9 2-89 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 -1.4 0.0 3 -89 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -1.2 -1.6 -0.9 -1.8 4 -89 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 - 0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7 1-90 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 0.7 2-90 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.7 2.6 3-90 0.0 -0.2 - 0.3 -0.1 - 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 -1.4 4-90 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.3 -1.1 1-91 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 - 0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 2-91 -0.1 -0.2 - 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 1.1 3-91 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.8 4-91 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.9 1-92 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.0 2-92 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.4 3-87 4-8 7 1-88 2-88 3 -88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 110.6 110.1 110.5 110.5 109.7 109.7 109.2 0.4 109.3 1 09.5 110.2 109.8 109.5 109.1 109.4 109.9 110.7 111.8 112.2 P r e pared b y Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis S eptember 3, 1992 20 Net Federal Debt (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Quarter Initial Quarter 3-87 4-87 1-88 4-87 8.9 1-88 9.2 9.4 2-88 8.4 8.1 6.8 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 4-90 3-90 Bi l l i o n s of Dol l a r s 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 1,944.1 1,988.4 2,021.6 3-88 8.4 8.2 7.6 8.3 4-88 7.6 7.3 6.6 6.4 1-89 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.7 5.9 7.2 2-89 7.3 7.0 6.6 6.5 5.9 6.5 5.9 3-89 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.6 7.4 4-89 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.9 1-90 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.1 10.2 11.6 15.0 2-90 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.6 9.3 9.7 10.7 11.8 13.5 12.0 3-90 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 10.0 10.9 11.8 12.9 11.9 11.7 4-90 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.2 12.0 13.0 12.3 12.4 13.1 1-91 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.1 9.2 2-91 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.7 10.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 11.7 11.6 11.6 10.8 12.5 3-91 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.2 12.8 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.5 14.1 15.8 4-91 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 11.9 11.9 12.0 11.7 12.5 12.5 9.4 2,062.4 2,085.7 4.6 2 ,122.1 2,152.7 2,191.4 2,235.7 8.3 2,315.4 2,382.2 2,449.1 2 ,525.8 2 ,582.0 2,658.9 2,758.3 2 ,820.8 1-92 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.2 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.6 12.2 12.1 10.3 11.3 2-92 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.0 12.6 12.6 11.6 12.7 14.2 2,897.3 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2,994.8 P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis O ctober 23, 1992 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (billions of dollars) Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals Gross federal debt Federal debt held by agencies and trusts Net federal debt Federal debt held by Federal Resen/e Banks Federal debt held by private investors Federal debt held by foreign investors 1988 March June September December 2487.5 2548.8 2614.3 2672.8 498.9 528.3 552.1 584.8 1988.4 2021.6 2062.4 2085.7 220.8 227.1 232.7 231.6 1765.2 1796.9 1830.8 1853.8 330.9 343.5 348.6 362.7 1989 March June September December 2738.1 2801.9 2870.1 2942.1 617.3 650.3 678.7 702.9 2122.1 2152.7 2191.4 2235.7 232.5 231.2 224.4 221.1 1887.1 1921.0 1967.8 2011.0 374.8 367.7 398.8 391.7 1990 March June September December 3046.9 3146.8 3247.7 3353.0 734.0 766.2 798.4 822.3 2315.4 2382.2 2449.1 2525.8 223.5 230.7 236.8 250.9 2096.6 2156.0 2217.6 2282.6 383.3 390.0 407.8 418.9 1991 March June September December 3458.3 3542.0 3681.5 3788.4 880.3 884.9 922.9 961.4 2582.0 2658.9 2758.3 2820.8 252.3 254.4 269.8 271.7 2339.8 2414.6 2500.6 2556.6 425.4 436.2 443.8 449.8 1992 March June 3873.6 3988.7 978.4 995.9 2897.3 2994.8 273.1 276.3 2640.2 2731.5 466.8 491.0 Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt. Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank. 21 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS (billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates) Receipts Expenditures Cyclically adjusted budget National income accounts budget Quarters Surplus or deficit(-) Cyclically adjusted budget National income accounts budget National income accounts budget Cyclically adjusted budget 1985 1 2 3 4 797.8 758.6 794.3 803.6 819.3 780.7 811.8 822.0 947.7 964.9 976.3 990.8 953.0 964.4 991.3 1012.6 -1 4 9 .9 -2 0 6 .3 -1 8 2 .0 -1 8 7 .2 -1 3 3 .7 -1 8 3 .7 -1 7 9 .5 -1 9 0 .6 1986 1 2 3 4 809.4 814.2 828.2 856.8 816.4 832.2 852.1 875.5 992.7 1038.0 1047.9 1034.3 1001.4 1045.2 1032.4 1038.7 -1 8 3 .3 -2 2 3 .8 -2 1 9 .7 -1 7 7 .5 -1 8 5 .0 -21 3 .0 -1 8 0 .3 -1 6 3 .2 1987 1 2 3 4 858.4 928.6 924.5 943.5 875.1 938.1 927.2 930.0 1048.1 1058.9 1059.0 1096.3 1057.4 1060.4 1065.6 1103.0 -1 8 9 .7 -1 3 0 .3 -1 3 4 .5 -1 5 2 .7 -1 8 2 .3 -1 2 2 .3 -1 3 8 .4 -1 7 3 .0 1988 1 2 3 4 940.5 970.4 977.8 1000.6 924.9 949.5 953.0 971.4 1098.0 1105.0 1097.3 1135.5 1098.0 1111.4 1098.2 1156.1 -1 5 7 .5 -1 3 4 .6 -1 1 9 .5 -1 3 4 .9 -173.1 -1 6 1 .9 -1 4 5 .2 -1 8 4 .7 1989 1 2 3 4 1050.9 1064.5 1053.6 1068.3 1014.3 1032.2 1020.2 1035.4 1160.8 1174.2 1181.5 1209.8 1181.0 1187.3 1182.0 1208.2 -1 1 0 .0 -1 0 9 .7 -1 2 8 .0 -1 4 1 .5 -1 6 6 .7 -155.1 -1 6 1 .8 -1 7 2 .8 1990 1 2 3 4 1086.7 1109.6 1119.9 1113.3 1061.7 1093.4 1116.0 1132.1 1254.5 1266.5 1265.5 1307.9 1252.2 1275.4 1273.6 1311.2 -1 6 7 .8 -1 5 6 .9 -1 4 5 .6 -1 9 4 .6 -1 9 0 .5 -1 8 2 .0 -1 5 7 .6 -179.1 1991 1 2 3 4 1114.6 1117.3 1127.7 1129.4 1160.1 1173.7 1264.4 1329.4 1348.7 1388.1 1257.9 1319.3 -1 4 9 .9 -2 1 2 .2 -2 2 1 .0 -2 5 8 .7 - 97.8 -1 4 5 .6 1992 1 2 3 1143.3 1149.8 N .A . N .A . -2 8 9 .2 -3 0 2 .9 N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . 1432.5 1452.7 1449.5 N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . — N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . N .A . N o t A v a ila b le Fiscal years Actual 1984 Total budget Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit ( - ) $ 1985 734.1 $ 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 $ 10 91.7 9 9 0 .7 $ 10 31.3 $ 1054.3 8 5 1 .8 9 4 6.3 9 9 0 .3 10 03.8 1064.1 1144.1 1251.8 1323.8 13 81.9 $ -1 8 5 .3 $ -2 1 2 .3 $ -2 2 1 .2 $ -1 4 9 .7 $ -1 5 5 .1 $ -1 5 3 .4 $ -2 2 0 .5 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .2 $ 11 22.2 6 6 6 .5 $ 1987 1986 769.1 $ 854.1 $ 9 0 9.0 $ Calendar years National income accounts budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) Cyclically adjusted budget Receipts Expenditures Surplus or deficit(-) $ 7 2 5 .8 8 2 7 .2 9 7 2 .3 $ 10 5 9 .3 $ 1 1 0 7 .4 8 9 2 .7 9 6 9.9 1 028.2 1 0 65.6 1109.0 11 8 1 .6 12 73.6 13 32.7 $ -1 6 6 .9 $ -1 8 1 .4 $ -2 0 1 .0 $ -1 5 1 .8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 1 0 .4 $ $ $ $ $ $ 11 00.8 7 5 4 .5 $ 78 8.6 8 9 0 .3 8 0 8.5 9 8 0.3 $ -1 3 5 .8 $ -1 7 1 .9 $ 844.1 1 0 29.4 $ -1 8 5 .4 $ 9 1 3 .8 9 1 7 .6 $ 9 4 9 .7 $ 10 25.5 1 0 71.6 1115.9 11 89.6 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -1 6 4 .1 1278.1 $ -1 7 7 .3 Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30. Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget. Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision. Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 22 G o v ern m en t D e fic it(- ) /S u r p l u s ( +) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars Billions of Dollars 0 0 -5 0 -5 0 Tot al -1 0 0 ' -1 0 0 / 1 \ / / J -1 5 0 \ -2 0 0 . * * ^ \V Fee eral ' -1 5 0 * -2 0 0 \ \ -2 5 0 -2 5 0 > -3 0 0 -3 0 0 -3 5 0 1 1 1 1 1 1986 I ! 1 1987 1 , 1 1988 j , ....1 1989 1 1 « 1990 I 1 r- 1991 1 I i -3 5 0 1992 National income accounts basis Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Defense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Terminal Qua r t e r Initial Quarter 4-87 1-88 1-88 1.2 2-88 -0.7 -2.5 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s A n nual R a t e s 1-92 2-92 2 96.7 294.8 3-88 -0.8 -1.8 -1.1 4-88 0.3 0.0 1.4 3.9 294.0 1-89 -0.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 -4.4 2-89 0.5 0.4 1.2 1.9 0.9 6.6 3-8 9 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.8 3.8 8.2 4-89 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.3 1.9 4.1 2.9 -3.6 1-90 2.3 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.0 6.2 6.0 4.2 12.6 2-90 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.6 3.6 5.3 4.9 3.3 7.0 1.7 3-90 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.2 3.4 2.7 1.0 2.6 -2.0 -5.6 5.5 4.7 6.8 5.0 6.7 20.6 296.8 2 93.5 298.2 9.9 30 5 . 3 30 2 . 5 311.6 312.9 308.4 4-90 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.4 5.7 1-91 3.7 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.8 7.8 6.7 8.4 16.2 2-91 2.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 3.8 4.8 4.5 3.8 5.1 3.7 4.2 7.6 1.7 -7. 6 3-91 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.0 3.8 3.5 2.7 3.6 2.2 2.3 4.4 -0.5 - 6.2 -4.8 4-91 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.2 1.4 2.0 0.6 0.4 1.6 -2.6 -7.0 -6.8 -8.7 1-92 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 1.1 -2.4 -5. 7 -5.0 -5.1 -1.4 2-92 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -2.4 -5.0 -4.4 -4.2 -1.9 -2.4 3-92 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.6 -0.9 - 2.9 -1.9 -1. 2 1.4 2.9 8.5 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-8 9 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 32 3 . 2 11.9 332.4 32 5 . 9 32 1 . 9 314.7 313.6 311.7 318.1 T h i r d quarter d ata are a dvance estimates. P r e p a r e d b y Fede r a l R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis O c t o b e r 27, 1992 23 Federal Nondefense Expenditures (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) Te r a i n a l Quarter Initial Quarter 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 1-88 0.4 2-88 2.4 4.5 3-8 8 0.5 0.5 -3.4 4-8 8 4.8 6.3 7.2 18.8 1-89 6.6 8.2 9.5 16.6 14.4 2-89 6.2 7.4 8.1 12.2 9.1 4.1 3-8 9 5.3 6.1 6.5 9.1 6.0 2.1 4-8 9 6.5 7.4 7.8 10.2 8.2 6.2 7.3 15.0 1-90 7.5 8.5 9.1 11.3 9.8 8.7 10.3 15.8 16.6 2-90 7.3 8.0 8.5 10.3 8.9 7.9 8.9 11.9 10.5 4.6 3-9 0 6.7 7.4 7.7 9.2 7.8 6.8 7.3 9.2 7.4 3.0 1.5 4-90 7.1 7.8 8.1 9.5 8.4 7.5 8.1 9.8 8.5 6.0 6.6 1-91 4.8 5.2 5.2 6.1 4.8 3.7 3.6 4.2 2.2 -1.2 -3.0 2-91 6.7 7.2 7.4 8.4 7.4 6.7 7.0 8.1 6.9 5.1 5.2 6.5 3-91 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.5 7.6 7.0 7.3 8.3 7.3 5.8 6.1 4-91 7.6 8.1 8.4 9.3 8.6 8.1 8.5 9.4 8.8 7.7 8.2 1-92 8.2 8.7 9.0 9.9 9.3 8.9 9.3 10.3 9.8 8.9 2-92 8.2 8.7 8.9 9.8 9.2 8.8 9.2 10.1 9.6 3 -92 7.6 8.0 8.2 8.9 8.3 7.9 8.2 8.9 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 Bi l l i o n s of D ollars Annual Rates 2-92 80 1 . 3 810.2 803.3 838.7 86 7 . 3 876.0 0.1 876.2 90 7 . 3 94 2 . 9 95 3 . 6 9 57.1 98 4 . 7 12.0 932.0 -5.2 -19.7 1,003.5 3.9 34.4 7.3 5.7 21.4 9.6 9.6 9.0 20.7 14.4 19.4 9.6 11.0 10.8 20.1 15.6 1 8.7 18.1 8.8 9.4 10.6 10.3 17.6 13.7 15.1 13.0 8.1 8.4 7.6 7.9 8.7 8.3 13.8 10.1 10.2 7.3 2.2 -3.3 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 1,026.8 1,073.4 1 ,118.9 1,141.0 1,131.4 T h i r d q uarter data are adv a n c e estimates. P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis Octo b e r 27, 1992 24
@FedFRASER