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November 1992

N ational
Economic
Trends
The Expansion Has
(Finally) Arrived!
The recent long, slow economic recovery has fos­
tered confusion over the nation’s economic perfor­
mance because output and unemployment have risen
simultaneously. The advance estimate o f the nation’s
real GDP shows that the economy broke out o f its
recovery phase and began a cyclical expansion in third
quarter 1992. A recovery begins at the trough, or
bottom, o f a recession and ends when output reaches
its previous cyclical peak. In the third quarter, real
GDP grew at a 2.7 percent annual rate to $4,924.5 bil­
lion (1987 prices), slightly above the previous high of
$4,902.7 billion reached in second quarter 1990. This
recovery has been the slowest and longest since the
1938-39 recovery. In addition, it has been accompa­
nied by a 1.1 percentage point rise in the unemploy­
ment rate. Such a period o f rising output along with a
rising unemployment rate is sometimes referred to as a
growth recession.
In the recent recession real GDP declined at a 2.9
percent rate from its peak in second quarter 1990 to its
trough in first quarter 1991— a slower rate o f decline
than in four o f the previous eight post-World War II re­
cessions and smaller than the 3.6 percent average rate
of decline in these eight recessions. Over the same pe­
riod, the unemployment rate rose from 5.3 percent o f
the civilian labor force to 6.5 percent. A 0.2 percent
labor force growth rate held down the rise in the unem­
ployment rate; both the rise in the unemployment rate
and the labor force growth rate were the smallest in the
nine postwar recessions.

Even though the recent recession was mild com­
pared with the previous eight recessions, real GDP
took six quarters to recover, rising at only a 1.8 percent
rate. Five o f the earlier recoveries lasted three quarters
and the other three were complete one quarter after the
real GDP trough. Slow output growth was not the
principal factor behind the rise in unemployment
during the recovery, however. Civilian employment
rose at a 0.5 percent rate during the recovery. If the
labor force had continued to grow as slowly as it did
during the recession, the unemployment rate would
have declined to about 6 percent by third quarter 1992.
Instead, labor force growth accelerated to a 1.3 percent
rate, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.6 percent.
Although numerous periods that fit the growth reces­
sion pattern have occurred, the recent unemployment
rate rise is only the second to have occurred in the past
nine recoveries.
For the whole recession/recovery period, the 2.3
percentage point rise in the unemployment rate is
smaller than the increase that occurred in five of the
previous eight recession/recovery periods. Indeed, it
equals the average unemployment rate increase in the
previous eight episodes. From the second quarter 1990
GDP peak to third quarter 1992, civilian employment
fell at a 0.2 percent rate, a smaller rate of decline than
in half o f the eight previous recession/recovery peri­
ods. The principal difference was the unprecedented
slow growth rate o f the labor force during the recent
recession/recovery period, which equaled the five-year
trend pace o f 0.9 percent. Nevertheless, even if labor
force growth returns to this trend rate, employment
growth will have to accelerate, for the unemployment
rate to decline.
— John A. Tatom

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by
writing Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809.




C o n su m er P rice In d e k ^ 'A ll U rban C on su m ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Mon t h
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1982-84=100
1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-92

5-92

6-9 2

7-9 2

8 -92
135.1

3-91

1.8

4-91

2.2

2.7

5-91

2.4

2.7

2.7

6-91

2.7

3.0

3.1

3.6

7-91

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.2

0.9

8-91

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.2

3.6

9-91

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

4.0

4.5

10-91

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.6

3.6

2.7

11-91

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.8

3.9

3.6

4.5

12-91

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.5

2.6

135.4
135.7
136.1
136.2
136.6
137.1
137.4
137.9
138.2

1-92

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.6

1.8

0.9

2-92

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.9

2.3

2.2

3.5

3-92

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

4.9

6.2

4-92

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.2

3.3

4.1

4.4

2.6

5-92

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.0

3.5

3.5

2.2

1.7

6-92

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.5

2.6

2.6

3.5

7-92

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.4

2.3

2.6

1.7

8-92

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.6

3.5

9-92

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

3.0

2.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-9 2




138.3
138.7
139.4
139.7
139.9
140.3
140.5
140.9
141.2

P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis
October 15, 1992

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annua] Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Mon t h
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1982-54=100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4 -92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92
135.7

3-91

3.6

4-91

5.0

6.4

5-91

4.2

4.5

2.7

6-91

4.5

4.8

4.0

5.4

136.4
136.7
137.3

7-91

2.3

2.0

0.6

-0.4

-5.9

8-91

1.5

1.1

-0.2

-1.2

-4.3

-2.6

136.6
136.3

9-91

1.5

1.2

0.2

-0.4

-2.3

-0.4

1.8

10-91

1.2

0.9

0.0

-0.5

-2.0

-0.6

0.4

-0.9

11-91

1.7

1.4

0.8

0.4

-0.5

0.9

2.1

2.2

5.4

12-91

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.9

0.1

1.4

2.4

2.7

4.5

3.6

1-92

1.2

1.0

0.4

0.1

-0.6

0.3

0.9

0.7

1.2

-0.9

-5.1

136.5
136.4
137.0
137.4
136.8

2-92

1.4

1.2

0.7

0.5

-0.1

0.8

1.3

1.2

1.8

0.6

-0.9

3.6

3-92

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.6

1.4

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.0

1.5

4.9

6.3

4-92

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.9

0.4

1.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

1.4

0.9

3.0

2.7

-0.9

5-92

1.2

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.6

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.4

-0.2

1.1

0.3

-2.6

-4.3

6 -92

1.2

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.1

0.7

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.1

1.2

0.7

-1.2

-1.3

1.8

7 -92

1.0

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.5

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.3

-0.1

0.7

0.2

-1.3

-1.4

0.0

8-92

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.1

0.7

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.2

2.1

1.9

1.0

1.5

3.5

4.4

11.0

9-92

1.8

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.6

1.9

1.9

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.5

2.4

1.7

2.3

4.0

4.7

8.1

5.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4 -92

5-92

6-92

7 -92

8-92

137.2
137.9
137.8
137.3
137.5
-1.7

137.3
138.5
139.1

Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 15, 1992

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Mo n t h

Initial Mon t h
2-91

3-91

3-91

-15.1
-8.9

0.0

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1982-84=100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5 -92

6 -92

7-92

8-92

-4.6

5-91

5-91

-24.5

4-91

4-91

101.3
100.9
4.9

101.3

6-91

-7.3

-0.8

1.2

-2.3

7-91

-7.0

-2.1

-1.2

-4.1

-5.8

8-91

-4.8

-0.2

0.9

-0.4

0.6

7.4

9-91

-3.8

0.2

1.2

0.3

1.2

4.9

2.4

10-91

-3.3

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.9

3.2

1.2

0.0

11-91

-1.9

1.3

2.2

1.8

2.6

4.8

4.0

4.8

9.9

12-91

-1.6

1.3

2.1

1.7

2.4

4.1

3.3

3.6

5.4

101.1
100.6
101.2
101.4
101.4
102.2
1.2

102.3

1-92

-3.0

-0.6

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

0.4

-0.9

-1.8

-2.3

-7.9 -16.2

2-92

-3.7

-1.5

-1.2

-1.8

-1.8

-1.2

-2.6

-3.5

-4.4

-8.7 -13.3 -10.2

3-92

-2.9

-0.8

-0.4

-0.9

-0.8

-0.1

-1.2

-1.8

-2.1

-4.9

-6.9

-1.8

7.5

4-9 2

-2.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.2

0.4

-0.4

-0.8

-1.0

-3.0

-4.0

0.4

6.2

4.9

5-9 2

-1.7

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.4

1.1

0.4

0.1

0.2

-1.4

-1.9

2.1

6.6

6.1

7.4

6 -92

-0.1

1.7

2.2

2.0

2.4

3.1

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.2

2.4

6.5

11.2

12.5

16.5

26.4

7 -92

0.1

1.8

2.3

2.1

2.5

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.4

2.5

6.0

9.6

10.2

12.0

14.4

3.5

8-92

-0.1

1.6

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.7

2.4

2.4

2.6

1.8

1.9

4.8

7.5

7.6

8.2

8.5

0.6

-2.3

9 -92

-0.1

1.5

1.9

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.2

2.2

2.4

1.6

1.7

4.2

6.4

6.3

6.5

6.3

0.4

-1.2

0.0

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-9 2

5 -92

6-92

7 -92

8-92




100.8
99.9
100.5
100.9
101.5
103.5
103.8
103.6
103.6

P r e p a r e d by Federal Rese r v e Bank of St. Louis
O cto b e r 15, 1992

3

P ro d u c er P rice In dex - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1982 * 100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

3-91

-3.9

4-91

-1.0

2.0

5-91

0.0

2.0

2.0

6-91

-0.5

0.7

0.0

-2.0

7-91

-0.8

0.0

-0.7

-2.0

-2.0

8-91

-0.2

0.6

0.2

-0.3

0.5

3.0

9-91

0.3

1.0

0.8

0.5

1.3

3.0

3.0

10-91

0.6

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

3.0

3.0

3.0

11-91

0.7

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.6

2.5

2.3

2.0

1.0

12-91

0.5

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.2

1.8

1.5

1.0

0.0

-1.0

1-92

0.3

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

0.2

-0.7

-1.5

-1.9

2-92

0.5

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.5

3.0

3-92

0.6

1.0

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.5

1.0

2.5

4-92

0.8

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.7

3.0

3.0

4.0

5-92

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.5

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.0

3.0

3.0

3.5

3.0

6-92

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.8

2.7

3.0

2.5

2.0

7-92

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

8-92

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.5

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.1

2.2

1.7

1.3

1.0

1.0

9-92

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.5

4.0

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-92

5-9 2

6-92

7 -92

8-9 2

121.2
121.4




121.6
121.4
121.2
121.5
121.8
122.1
122.2

4

122.1
121.9
122.2
2.0

122.4
122.8
123.1
123.3
123.4
123.5
123.9

P r e p a r e d by Federal Rese r v e B a n k of St. Louis
O ctober 14, 1992

C ivilian E m p lo y m e n t and U n e m p lo y m e n t R ate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Initial Mo n t h

T e r minal
M onth
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

3-91

-1.1

4-91

2.3
-0.7

-0.5

-6.5

6-91

-0.1

0.3

-2.4

1.9

7-91

-0.4

-0.3

-2.2

0.0

-1.8

8-91

-0.8

-0.7

-2.3

-0.8

-2.2

0.2

0.4

-0.6

0.9

0.6

1.9

-0.1

0.0

-0.9

0.3

-0.1

0.5

2.0

-0.2

-0.1

-0.9

0.1

-0.3

0.1

1.0

-1.6

-0.2

-0.1

-0.8

0.0

-0.3

0.0

0.6

-1.2

-0.7

0.2

0.3

-0.3

0.5

0.3

0.7

1.3

0.1

0.9

1.8

7-92

8-92

-0.5

1-92

6-92

-1.0

12-91

5-92

-2.3

11-91

4-92

6.4

10-91

3-92

-2.5

9-91

2-92

5.8

5-91

1-92

Thousands of
Persons

116,834
117,388
116,730
116,909
116,729
116,484
117,089
116,867
116,772
116,728
4.1

117,117

2-92

0.1

0.2

-0.4

0.4

0.2

0.5

1.0

-0.1

0.5

0.9

1.6

-0.8

3-92

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.6

0.5

0.8

1.3

0.4

1.0

1.5

2.1

1.2

3.2

4-92

0.5

0.7

0.2

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.5

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.5

1.9

3. 3

3.4

5-9 2

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.8

0.7

1.0

1.3

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.9

1.4

2.1

1.6

-0.2

6 -92

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.1

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0.9

1.4

0.8

-0.5

-0.8

7-92

0.5

0.6

0.3

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.2

0.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.1

1.5

1.1

0.3

0.6

2.0

8-9 2

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.1

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.3

0.9

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.3

0.8

-0.4

9-92

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.1

0.7

1.0

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.4

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-9 2

7-92

8-92




117,043
117,348
117,675
117,656
117,574
117,772
117,737
117,701

P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 2, 1992

P a y ro ll E m p lo y m en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

105

95

Service—Producing Employment

85

75

1986

1987

1988

1989

1991

1990

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

P a y r o l l

E m p lo y m e n t

(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Thou s a n d s of
P ersons

Initial Month

Terminal
Month

2-9 1

3 -9 1

3-9 1

-2 .1
-1.1

-0 .4

6-9 1

7-9 1

8-91

9 - 9 1 1 0 -9 1 1 1-9 1 12-9 1

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

-1 .8

5-9 1

5-9 1

-2 .3

4 -9 1

4-9 1

108,344
108,178
1.0

108,265

6-9 1

-0.9

-0 .4

0.3

-0 .4

7-9 1

-0 .8

-0 .4

0.0

-0 .4

-0 .4

8-9 1

-0 .5

-0 .2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.9

108,227
108,190
108,267

9-9 1

-0 .4

-0.1

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.3

10-9 1

-0 .4

-0 .1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.1

-0 .1

11-9 1

-0 .5

-0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0.1

-0 .5

-0.9

12-9 1

-0 .4

-0 .2

0.0

-0 .2

-0.1

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0.5

-0 .7

0.2

1 -9 2

-0.5

-0 .3

-0.1

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0.2

-0 .6

2-9 2

-0 .4

-0 .2

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .4

0.0

-0 .1

0.5

3-92

-0 .3

-0 .1

0.0

-0 .1

0.0

0.0

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

-0 .1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

5-92

0.0

0 .1

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

108,293
108,285
-1 .6

108,139
108,154
108,100
108,142
108,200
108,377
108,496

6-92

-0 .1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.3

-0 .8

7-92

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.8

0 .5

1.9

8-92

-0 .1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0 .6

0.2

-0.1

0.2

-1 .4

*»-92

-0 .1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0 .2

-0 .1

-1.0

-0 .6

2-9 1

3 -9 1

4 -9 1

5-9 1

6-9 1

7 -9 1

8-9 1

9-9 1 10 -9 1 1 1-9 1 12-9 1

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92




6

108,423
108,594
108,466
108,409

Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis
Oct o b e r 2, 1992

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Mo n t h

Initial Honth
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Thousands of
Persons
4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92
84,406

3-91

-1.0

4-91

-1.1

-1.2

5-91

-0.4

0.0

1.2

6-91

-0.2

0.1

0.7

0.2

7-91

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

-0.3

8-91

0.0

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.4

1.1

9-91

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.6

1.0

0.9

10-91

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.7

0.6

11-91

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.2

-0.1

-0.8

12-91

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.6

1-92

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

2-92

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.6

3 -92

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

4 -9 2

Û.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

2.6

5-92

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

6 -9 2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.4

0.8

0.1

7-92

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.3

2.6

8-92

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.7

1.1

-0.5

9 -92

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.7

-0.3

-0.2

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

84,318
84,401
84,418
84,398
84,476
84,538
84,581
84,526
84,570
84,573
84,617
84,668
84,847
84,948
84,953
85,135
85,102
85,091

P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis
October 2, 1992

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

Initial Ho n t h
Persons
9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

Thousands of
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6 -92

7-92

8-92

3-91

-6.9

4-91

-5.4

-3.8

5-91

-3.6

-1.8

0.2

6-91

-3.4

-2.1

-1.3

-2.7

7-91

-2.9

-1.8

-1.1

-1.8

-0.9

8-91

-2.4

-1.5

-0.9

-1.2

-0.5

-0.1

9-91

-2.3

-1.5

-1.1

-1.4

-0.9

-0.9

-1.8

10-91

-2.3

-1.7

-1.3

-1.6

-1.3

-1.5

-2.2

-2.5

11-91

-2.6

-2.0

-1.8

-2.1

-2.0

-2.2

-3.0

-3.5

-4.5

12-91

-2.5

-2.0

-1.7

-2.0

-1.9

-2.1

-2.6

-2.8

-3.0

-1.5

1-92

-2.5

-2.1

-1.9

-2.1

-2.0

-2.2

-2.6

-2.9

-3.0

-2.2

-2.9

2-92

-2.3

-1.9

-1.7

-1.9

-1.8

-1.9

-2.2

-2.3

-2.2

-1.5

-1.5

-0.1

3 -9 2

-2.1

-1.7

-1.5

-1.7

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

0.4

4-9 2

-2.0

-1.6

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

0.1

-0.1

5-92

-1.8

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.9

6 -9 2

-1.9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.7

-1.0

-1.5

-3.9

7-92

-1.8

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

-1.4

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.4

-1.0

-0.9

-0.6

-0.7

-0.9

-1.2

-2.2

-0.6

8-92

-2.0

-1.7

-1.6

-1.7

-1.6

-1.7

-1.8

-1.8

-1.7

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-2.1

-3.1

-2.7

-4.8

9-92

-2.0

-1.7

-1.6

-1.7

-1.7

-1.7

-1.8

-1.8

-1.8

-1.5

-1.5

-1.3

-1.5

-1.8

-2.1

-2.9

-2.6

-3.6

-2.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

23,938
23,860




23,864
23,809
23,792
23,791
23,755
23,704
23,613
23,584
23,527
23,525
23,532
23,530
23,548
23,470
23,459
23,364
23,318

Pre p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis
O ctober Z , 1992

7

C hange in t h e E m p lo y m e n t Cost In dex and Its C o m p o n en ts
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T erninal
Q uarter

Initial Q uarter
4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

1-88

5.2
4.7

4.5

4.8

4.7

4.4

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.3

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4.1

3-89

June 1989 = 100
3-90

4.6

2-89

2-90

5.1

1-89

1-90

3.8

4-88

4-8 9

5.2

3-88

3-89

5.2

2-88

2-89

9 4.5
95.7
96.6
97.8
9 8.9
99.9
5.3

101.2

4-89

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.1

4.7

3-90

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.7

102.4
103.8
105.0
106.2

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4 .7

4.7

4.4

4.2

3.8

1-91

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4 .7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.9

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.7

4.5

3-91

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.3

4.1

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.0

107.2
108.5
109.7
110.8
111.9

1^92

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.6

4 .5

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

2-92

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.2

2.5

3-92

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

2.9

3.2

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

113.0
113.7
114.6

Data are for the last month of quarter




P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis
Octo b e r 27, 1992

8

In d u str ia l P r o d u c tio n
Seasonally Adjusted
1987=100

1987=100

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Mo n t h

Initial Mon t h
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

5-91

-1.1
2.7

8.3

4.6

9.1

10.7

5.5

9.1

10.2

10.0

4.4

7.0

7.3

6.2

4.0

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9.3

8-91

2-92

10.6

7-91

1987 » 100
1-92

10.7

6-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

5.9

5-91

8-91

-7.7

4-91

7-91

105.0
105.5
106.4
107.3

1
>»
-

108.1
108.0

9-91

4.4

6.6

6.7

5.7

4.2

1.7

4.5

10-91

3.9

5.6

5.6

4.6

3.1

1.1

2.2

0.0

11-91

3.0

4.5

4.3

3.2

1.8

0.0

0.4

-1.6

-3.3

12-91

1.9

3.1

2.7

1.6

0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.6

-5.4

-7.5

1-92

0.9

1.8

1.4

0.3

-1.1

-2.8

-3.1

-4.9

-6.5

-8.0

-8.6

2-92

1.4

2.3

1.9

1.0

-0.1

-1.4

-1.5

-2.6

-3.3

-3.3

-1.1

7.0

3 -92

1.7

2.5

2.2

1.4

0.4

-0.7

-0.6

-1.5

-1.8

-1.4

0.7

5.8

4.6

4 -92

1.9

2.7

2.5

1.7

0.9

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

2.0

5.7

5.1

5.7

5-92

2.4

3.2

3.0

2.3

1.6

0.9

1.1

0.7

0.8

1.5

3.4

6.6

6.5

7.5

6 -92

2.0

2.7

2.4

1.8

1.1

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.6

2.1

4.3

3.7

3.4

2.2

-4.3

7 -92

2.4

3.1

2.9

2.3

1.7

1.1

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.7

3.1

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.5

2.2

9.2

8-92

2.0

2.6

2.4

1.9

1.3

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.6

1.0

2.1

3.7

3.2

2.9

2.2

0.0

2.2

-4.3

9-92

1.7

2.3

2.1

1.5

1.0

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.6

1.5

2.8

2.2

1.9

1.1

-0.8

0.4

-3.8

-3.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-9 2

5-92

6 -92

7-92

8-92




108.4
108.4
108.1
107.4
106.6
107.2
107.6
108.1
9.3

108.9
108.5
109.3
108.9
108.6

P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank o f St. Louis
O ctober 16, 1992

P e r so n a l In co m e in 1987 D ollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

1988

1987

1986

1990

1989

1992

1991

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
M onth

Initial Month
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

3-91

2.2
2.8

2.1

2.7

2.3

3.3

1.9

1.4

1.8

0.7

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

B i l lions of D ollars
Annual R ates
8-92

2.5

7-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

4.0

6-91

8-91

0.3

5-91

7-91

4.1

4-91

6-91

3,494.3
3,49 5 . 2
3 ,506.6
3,513.9
3 ,510.4

-1.2

3,512.7

8-91

1.7

1.3

1.5

0.7

-0.2

0.8

9-91

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

-0.3

0.2

-0.5

10-91

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.1

1.8

2.4

3 ,511.3
5.3

3,526.4

11-91

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.4

-4.3

12-91

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.9

3.4

4.8

4.5

14.2

1-92

2.1

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.5

3.3

2.6

6.3

-1.1

2-92

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.8

3.4

6.1

2.3

5.8

3-92

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.1

3.4

4.1

3.8

6.0

3.4

5.6

5.5

4-92

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.6

3.0

2.7

4.1

1.8

2.7

1.3

-2.8

5-92

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.9

2.6

3.7

1.8

2.5

1.4

-0.6

1.8

6-92

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.1

3.1

1.3

1.8

0.9

-0.6

0.5

-0.8

7-92

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.2

1.8

2.7

1.1

1.5

0.6

-0.6

0.2

-0.6

-0.3

8-92

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.6

2.3

0.9

1.2

0.4

-0.6

0.0

-0.6

-0.4

-0.5

9-92

1.8

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.7

2.3

1.1

1.3

0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.9

2.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5 -92

6-92

7-92

8-92




3,513.4
3 ,5 5 2 . 5
3 ,5 4 9 . 3
3 ,5 6 5 . 9
3 ,581.9
3 ,5 7 3 . 3
3 ,5 7 8 . 6
3 ,576.1
3,575.2
3 ,573.6
3 ,580.5

P r e p a r e d by Feueral Rese r v e B ank of St. Louis
October 28, 1992

10

R etail S ales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

170

150

130

110

90
1986

1988

1987

1989

1991

1990

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Mo n t h
2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

3-91

0.1
3.6

1.5

1.8

-0.2

3.4

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

-3.6

2-92

3-92

4 -92

5-92

6-92

7 -92

8-92

Millions of
Dollars

11.0

6-91

8-91

-7.2

5-91

7-91

8.0

4-91

6-91

113,710
113,005
113,991
113,644

7-91

1.2

-0.4

2.0

-2.3

-0.9

8-91

-0.7

-2.4

-1.2

-4.9

-5.6

-9.9

9-91

-0.7

-2.0

-1.0

-3.8

-3.8

-5.2

-0.2

10-91

-0.6

-1.8

-0.9

-3.1

-3.0

-3.7

-0.4

-0.5

11-91

-1.5

-2.6

-1.9

-3.9

-4.0

-4.7

-2.9

-4.2

-7.8

12-91

-1.4

-2.4

-1.8

-3.5

-3.5

-4.0

-2.5

-3.2

-4.5

-1.1

113,554
112,567
112,547
112,496
111,742
111,635

1-92

1.1

0.4

1.3

0.2

0.7

1.0

3.3

4.2

5.8

13.4

30.0

2-92

1.9

1.4

2.3

1.4

2.0

2.5

4.7

5.7

7.3

12.9

20.6

3-9 2

0.2

-0.4

0.2

-0.8

-0.5

-0.4

1.0

1.3

1.6

4.1

4-9 2

0.3

-0.3

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

1.1

1.3

1.6

3.5

5-92

0.5

0.0

0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.2

6-92

0.2

-0.3

0.2

-0.3

-0.2

7-92

0.9

0.5

1.0

0.3

0.6

0.8

1.8

8-92

0.6

0.2

0.7

0.1

0.3

0.4

1.3

1.5

1.7

9-92

0.6

0.2

0.7

0.1

0.3

0.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

-0.5

1.4
0.8

1.6
0.9

1.9
1.1

3.6
2.4

114,106
11.9

115,179

5.9

-4.4 -18.3

113,252

4.7

-2.5

-9.0

1.3

4.6

-1.0

-4.9

2.6

3.8

3.0

-1.7

-4.8

0.2

-0.3

-4.3
3.8

12.5

113,375
113,732
113,316

4.3

0.6

-1.5

3.2

3.8

2.8

3.3

-0.1

-1.9

1.7

1.8

1.2

4.0

-3.8

2.6

3.0

0.0

-1.6

1.5

1.6

1.0

2.9

-1.7

0.5

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-9 2

6-92

7 -92

8-92

2.0

2.3

3.6

114,437
114,068
114,115

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 14, 1992

11

In v e n to r ie s C om pared With M onthly S a les
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

1.58

1.54

1.54

1.50

1.50

1.46

1.46

- 1 - 1- r
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Mo n t h
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

2-91

-5.8

-6.9

-5.9

-6.7

-4.0

-5.7

-6.2

-4.3

-5.5

-5.0

-5.2

-3.5

-4.1

-3.1

-4.3

-4.4

-2.9

-3.2

-2.2

-0.7

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

-1.1

8-91

3-92

-5.0

7-91

2-92

-6.1

6-91

1-92

-1.9

5-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

-7.7 -11.7

4-91

8-91

-3.5

3-91

7-91

Mil l i o n s of
Dollars

838,491
8 29,818
8 28, 5 0 8
8 24, 1 7 7
820,671
8 19,898
819.684

-0.3

9-91

-3.3

-3.3

-1.8

-1.8

-0.6

0.8

1.8

4.1

10-91

-2.6

-2.5

-1.1

-0.9

0.1

1.5

2.3

3.7

3.4

11-91

-2.2

-2.1

-0.8

-0.6

0.3

1.4

2.1

2.9

2.3

1.2

12-91

-1.7

-1.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.8

1.8

2.4

3.1

2.8

2.6

4.0

1-92

-2.0

-1.9

-0.8

-0.7

0.0

0.7

1.0

1.3

0.6

-0.3

-1.0

-5.7

2-92

-1.8

-1.7

-0.7

-0.6

0.1

0.7

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.0

-0.4

-2.6

0.7

822,401
8 24,672
825 , 5 0 5
828,184
824,150
824 , 6 0 9

3-92

-1.5

-1.4

-0.4

-0.3

0.3

0.9

1.2

1.4

0.9

0.4

0.3

-1.0

1.5

2.3

4-92

-1.2

-1.0

-0.1

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.2

2.2

3.0

3.6

5-92

-1.2

-1.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.0

1.4

1.7

1.3

-0.9

6-92

-0.8

-0.6

0.2

0.3

0.9

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.3

0.9

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.4

5.7

7-92

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

0.7

1.2

1.7

I-9

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.5

2.7

3.2

3.4

3 .3

5.4

5.2

8-92

-0.2

0.0

0.7

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.9

3.3

3.5

3 .5

5.0

4.6

4.0

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4 -92

5-92

6-92

7-92




826,204
8 28,630
828 , 0 3 2
8 31,872
835,373
838,101

P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 15, 1992

12

Gross D o m estic P ro d u ct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

6.8

-------------------r 6 .8

Current Dollars

— I - T_
1986

1987

1- 1- r
- -

1988

1989

1990

1 - 1- r
- -

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annu a l Rat e s
4 - 8 9 1-90 2-90

B i l l i o n s of D ollars
3-90

4-90

1-88

3.5
3.2

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

1.7

0.9

0.0

4-89

2.5

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.2

2.8

2-90

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.0

3-90

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.7

-0.3

-1.6

4-90

1.5

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-1.6

-2.8

-3.9

1-91

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-1.9

-2.9

-3.5

2 -92

3.2

2-89

1-92

3.9

1-89

4-91

2.5

4-88

3-91

4.3

3-88

2-91

2.6

2-88

1-91

-3.0

4,655.3
4,704.8
4,734.5
4,779.7
4,817.6
4,8 3 9 . 0
4,839.0
4,856.7
4,890.8
4,902.7
4,882.6
4,833.8
4,796.7

2-91

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.2

-1.7

-1.8

-0.7

1.7

3-91

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-0.1

1.5

1.2

4-91

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.9

-0.7

0.1

1.2

0.9

0.6

1-92

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.9

2-92

1.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.8

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.2

1.5

3-9 2

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.4

1.1

1.8

1-8

1.9

2.4

2.1

2.7

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4,817.1
4,831.8
4,838.5
4,873.7
4 ,8 9 2 . 4
4,924.5

Third q uarter 1992 data are advance estimates.




P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R eserve B a n k of St. Louis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

13

Im p licit P rice D efla to r fo r GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Qua r t e r
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

1987 = 100
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92
102.1

1-88

3.6

2 -88

4.0

4.4

3-88

4.4

4.8

5.1

4-88

4.2

4.5

4.5

3.9

1-8 9

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.6

5.4

2-8 9

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.6

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

2-90

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

3-90

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.7

4-90

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.9

1-91

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

5.3

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.4

3.5

3-91

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

2.9

2.4

4-91

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

1-9 2

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.1

2-9 2

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3-92

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.0

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-8 8

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

103.2
104.5
105.5
106.9
108.1
109.1
110.1
111.3
112.6
113.9
115.0
116.5
117.5
118.2
118.9
119.8
1 20.6
121.2

T h i r d quarter 1992 d a t a are a dvance estimates.




P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e B ank of St. L ouis
Octo b e r 27, 1992

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T erainal
Q uarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-88

5.5
4.3

3.2

4.2

3.5

3.0

3.7

3.0

2.5

2.8

B i l lions of Doll a r s
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4.1

1-89

Initial Quarter
Annual R a t e s
4-89 1-90 2-90

1.9

4-88

3-89

4.6

3 -8 8

2-89

6.3

2-88

1-89

4 ,63 6 . 2

1.5

4 ,68 8 . 7
4,710.9
4,7 5 8 . 7
4,776.3
4 ,802.0

2-89

3.4

2.9

2.4

2.6

1.8

2.2

3-89

3.2

2.7

2.3

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

4 -89

2.9

2.4

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

3.0

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

4.3

2-90

2.6

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.6

-1.1

3-90

2.4

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

-0.5

0.1

4-90

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

1-91

1.7

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-1.3

-1.3

-2.0

-3.2

2-91

1.7

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

1.3

3-91

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

0.4

-0.5

4-91

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

0.3

-0.3

0.0

1-92

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.4

2.3

4.7

2-92

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.2

-0.1

3-92

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.2

1.2

1.6

2.2

1.0

2.1

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4 ,823.0
4,831.8
4 ,88 3 . 3
4 ,870.0
4 ,871.4
4 ,86 0 . 6
4 ,821.8
4,837.4
4,831.2
4,830.9
4 ,8 8 6 . 3
4 ,8 8 4 . 6
4 ,9 0 9 . 8

Pr e p a r e d b y Federal R e s e r v e B a n k of St. Louis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Qua r t e r
4-8 7

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
A n nual Rat e s
4 - 8 9 1-90 2-90

B i l l i o n s of Doll a r s
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92
3,128.2

1-88

7.1

2-88

4.8

2.5

3-88

4.2

2.7

2.9

4-88

4.2

3.2

3.5

4.1

1-89

3.3

2.4

2.4

2.1

0.1

2-89

3.0

2.1

2.0

1.8

0.6

1.1

3 -89

3.0

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

2.7

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

2.6

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.5

2.2

3 ,14 7 . 8
3,17 0 . 6
3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0
3,259.5
3 ,26 0 . 1

2-90

2.4

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.1

0.1

3-90

2.3

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.7

4-90

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.7

1-91

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-3.1

-3.0

2-91

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-1.4

-0.5

2.0

3,273.9
3 ,24 8 . 0

-3.1

3,223.5
3,239.3

3-91

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

1.7

1.5

4-91

1.4

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

0.0

1.1

0.6

-0.3

1-92

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

5.1

2-92

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.4

-0.1

3 -92

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.6

1.2

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.8

1.6

3.4

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3,251.2
3,2 4 9 . 0
3,289.3
3,288.5
3,316.1

Th i r d quarter 1992 d ata a r e advance estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F ederal Rese r v e Bank of St. L ouis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Qua r t e r

Initial Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4 -88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-88

-1.2
0.1

3 .2

0.9

3.2

3.0

-0.4

1.0

0.1

-1.2

-2.4

-1.7

-3.0

-4.8

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

-3.1

-2.7

-3.9

-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

4-89

-3.5

-3.2

-4.2

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-2.5

-2.1

-2.9

-3.9

-5.2

-5.2

-2.9

-0.5

2-90

-4.0

-3.8

-4.7

-5.7

-7.1

-7.4

-6.3

-5.9

3-90

-5.9

-5.9

-6.9

-8.0

-9.5 -10.2

4-90

-7.4

-7.5

-8.6

-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4

1-91

-9.0

-9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9

2-91

-8.0

-8.1

-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6

3-91

-6.6

-6.7

-7.5

-8.3

-9.2

4-91

-5.6

-5.6

-6.2

-6.9

-7.7

1-92

-4.3

-4.2

-4.7

-5.2

-5.8

Bi l l i o n s of D ollars
A nnual Ra t e s
2-92

-5.4

2-89

1-92

3.3

1-89

4-91

2.7

4 -88

3-91

3.7

3 -88

2-91

-5.8

2-88

1-91

220.0
222.0
223.5
225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
5.3

210.7

-5.9 -15.9

201.8

-9.9 -10.5 -11.9 -19.5 -22.9

-9.4

-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8

-7.9

-7.5

-7.5

-7.7

-9.4

-5.8

-5.3

-5.0

-4.9

-6.1

-9.6

189.1
177.5
164.1
7.0

1 66.9

-8.7

-3.7

10.6

14.4

-8.3

-5.0

-0.1

10.9

12.9

11.3

-4.7

-1.2

3.6

13.1

15.2

15.6

20.1

1 72.6
177.3
1 85.6

2-92

-3.4

-3.2

-3.7

-4.1

-4.6

-4.5

-3.9

-3.6

-3.3

-4.2

-2.7

0.6

5.1

13.0

14.6

14.6

16.3

12.6

3 -92

-3.2

-3.0

-3.4

-3.8

-4.3

-4.2

-3.6

-3.2

-3.0

-3.8

-2.3

0.6

4.4

10.8

11.6

10.9

10.7

6.3

0.4

191.2

4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

191.4

P r e pared by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 27, 1992

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Te r m i n al
Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Q uarter
Annual R ates
4-89 1-90 2-90

B i l lions of Dol l a r s
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1-88

5 .7

2-88

8.3

11.0

3-8 8

6.5

6.9

2.9

4-88

5.5

5.5

2.8

1-89

4.5

4.2

2.0

1.6

0.5

2-89

4.1

3.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

2.0

3 -89

3.4

3.1

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-8 9

2.5

2.1

0.7

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

2.9

2.6

1.4

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.6

1.1

6.2

2-90

1.9

1.5

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-0.4

-6.6

3-90

2.3

1.9

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

1.5

-0.7

5 .6

4-90

1.2

0.8

-0.2

- 0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

-1.8

-1.4

-3.8

-2.3

-9.6

529.3

1-91

-0.2

-0.7

-1.7

-2.1

-2.7

-3.1

-3.8

-4.3

-4.5

-6.9

-7.1 -12.8 -15.8

5 07.0

517.7
531.4
535.2
2.7

538.8
53 9 . 5
542.2
541.8
536.7
5 44.8
5 35.6
5 42.9

2-91

-0.4

-0.9

-1.8

- 2.2

-2.7

-3.1

-3.7

-4.2

-4.2

-6.2

-6.1

-9.7

-9.7

-3.1

3-91

-0.6

-1.1

-1.9

- 2.3

-2.8

-3.1

-3.6

-4.1

-4.1

-5.7

-5.6

-8.1

-7.6

-3.2

-3.4

4-91

-0.9

-1.3

-2.2

- 2.6

-3.0

-3.3

-3.8

-4.2

-4.2

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

-7.0

-3.9

-4.3

-5.2

1-92

-0.7

-1.1

-1.8

-2.2

-2.5

-2.8

-3.2

-3.5

-3.5

-4.6

-4.3

-5.9

-5.1

-2.2

-1.9

-1.2

3.0

2-92

0.2

-0.1

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.4

-1.7

-1.8

-1.7

-2.5

-2.0

-3.0

-1.8

1.2

2.3

4.3

9.4

16.1

3-9 2

0.2

-0.1

-0.7

-1.0

-1.2

-1.3

-1.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.2

-1.7

-2.6

-1.5

1.1

1.9

3.3

6.3

7.9

0.3

4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-9 2

2-92

5 03.0
4 98.7
4 92.1
49 5 . 8
5 14.7
515.1

T h i r d quarter 1992 data a r e adv a n c e estinates.




P r e p a r e d b y Federal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Lcuis
O ctober 27, 1992

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Q uarter

4-87

1-88

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annu a l Ra t e s
1-90 2-90
4-89

23.6

Bi l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

407.1

2-88

16.8

10.3

3-88

13.3

8.5

6.8

41 7 . 2

4-88

13.5

10.3

10.3

3.4.0

424.1
43 8 . 2
45 4 . 5

1-89

13.9

11.6

12.1

14.9

15.7

2-89

14.3

12.6

13.1

15.3

16.0

16.3

3-89

12.3

10.5

10.5

11.5

10.7

8.3

0.8

4-89

12.4

10.9

11.0

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

12.2

10.8

10.9

11.6

11.2

10.1

8.0

11.9

10.7

2-90

11.7

10.4

10.4

11.0

10.5

9.4

7.8

10.2

8.8

7.0

3-90

10.5

9.3

9.2

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.1

7.5

5.7

3.3

-0.2

4-90

10.6

9.5

9.4

9.7

9.2

8.3

7.0

8.3

7.2

6.0

5.5

11.6

1-91

9.3

8.2

8.0

8.2

7.5

6.5

5.2

6.0

4.6

3.1

1.9

3.0

-5.0

2-91

9.8

8.8

8.7

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.6

7.4

6.5

5.7

5.4

7.3

5.2

16.6

472.0
472.9
48 7 . 7
50 0 . 2
50 8 . 7
5 08.4
522.6
5 15.9
536.1

3-91

9.6

8.6

8.5

8.7

8.2

7.5

6.5

7.3

6.5

5.8

5.5

7.0

5.5

11.3

9.8

8.9

8.9

9.0

8.6

8.0

7.2

7.9

7.3

6.8

6.8

8.3

7.4

11.9

9.7

5 44.2

6.2

4-91

561.4

13.3

5 65.4

1-92

9.4

8.6

8.4

8.6

8.2

7.5

6.8

7.4

6.8

6.3

6.2

7.3

6.5

9.6

7.4

7.9

2.9

2-92

8.8

7.9

7.8

7.9

7.4

6.8

6.1

6.6

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.1

7.3

5.1

4.7

0.7

-1.4

3-92

8.4

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.1

6.5

5.7

6.2

5.6

5.1

4.9

5.5

4.7

6.4

4.4

4.0

1.1

0.2

1.9

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

563.4
566.0

P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Q uarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Ra t e s
4-8 9 1-90 2-90

B i l l i o n s of Dol l a r s
3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92
52 0 . 5

1-88

-1.2

2-88

-2.6

-4.0

3 -8 8

1.0

2.2

8.7

4-88

3.6

5.3

10.2

11.7

1-89

1.9

2.7

5.0

3.1

-4.8

2-89

2.5

3.3

5.2

4.0

0.4

5.8

3-89

3.1

3.8

5.4

4.6

2.4

6.2

6.5

4-89

3.1

3.7

5.1

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

3.0

3.6

4.7

4.1

2.6

4.5

4.1

3.0

2.6

2-90

3.3

3.8

4.8

4.2

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.9

3-90

3.1

3.5

4.4

3.9

2.8

4.1

3.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

1.5

4-90

2.1

2.4

3.0

2.4

1.3

2.2

1.6

0.7

0.1

-0.8

-3.6

-8.5

555.3

1-91

0.7

0.8

1.3

0.6

-0.6

0.0

-0.9

-2.0

-3.1

-4.4

-7.4 -11.6 -14.6

53 3 . 8

515.2
526.1
54 0 . 9
53 4 . 3
541.9
550.5
555.0
558 . 6
5.1

565.6
567.7

2-91

1.7

1.9

2.4

1.9

0.9

1.6

1.1

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-2.1

-3.3

-0.6

15.6

3-91

2.6

2.9

3.5

3.1

2.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

1.4

5.0

16.4

17.1

4-91

2.7

3.0

3.5

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

4.8

12.2

10.5

4.2

1-92

2.8

3.0

3.5

3.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.2

4.5

9.9

8.1

3.9

3.5

2-92

3.4

3.7

4.2

3.9

3.4

4.0

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.9

6.1

10. 9

9.7

7.4

9.0

14.7

3-92

3.6

3.9

4.4

4.1

3.6

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.0

4.1

4.0

4.3

6.3

10.2

9.1

7.2

8.3

10.7

6.9

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-9 2

2-92

55 3 . 5
575 . 8
581.8
586 . 8
607 . 3
61 7 . 5

T h i r d q u arter 1992 data are advance estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

B i l lions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-92

1-88

-4.1

2-88

-1.7

0.9

3-88

-1.4

0.0

-0.9

4-88

0.2

1.6

2.0

5.0

1-89

-0.2

0.8

0.8

1.6

-1.6

2-89

0.7

1.7

1.9

2.8

1.8

5.3

3 -89

1.2

2.1

2.4

3.2

2.6

4.9

4.5

4 -89

1.1

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

1.7

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

6.4

2-90

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

2.5

3.7

1.1

3-90

1.3

1.8

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.8

-0.4

-2.0

4-90

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

6.1

1-91

1.8

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.0

2.3

4.4

2.8

2-91

1.6

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.7

3.0

1.5

0.2

3-91

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.7

0.2

-1.0

-2.3

4-91

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.7

-2.6

-3.0

1-92

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

1.7

2-92

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.6

-0.3

-0.9

-1.2

-0.8

0.2

-1.2

3-92

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.4

0.8

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-0.1

0.8

0.4

2.0

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

883.7
885.6
883.7
894.5
890.8
902.3
912.2
912.6
926.8
929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1
945.6
940.2
933.1
937.0
934.2
938.8

T h i r d q uarter 1992 data are a dvance estimates.
Prepared by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
October 27, 1992

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T e r minal
Quarter

3-87

4 -87

4-8 7

8.5
10.5

12.5

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Q uarter
Annual Rates
3-89 4-89 1-90

B i l lions of Dollars
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

10.7

2-88

2-88

6.4

1-88

1-88

343.3
352.1
14.5

364.2

3 -88

8.1

8.6

7.6

1.2

4-88

9.4

10.2

10.0

7.9

15.0

1-89

6.1

6.0

4.9

1.9

2.3

-9.1

2-89

5.3

5.1

4.0

1.6

1.7

-4.4

3-89

2.8

2-3

1.0

-1.5

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4 -89

2.1

1.6

0.4

-1.8

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

3.4

3.1

2.2

0.5

0.4

-2.3

-0.5

-0.8

5.8

15.6

365.3
378.3
369.4
0.5

369.9
357.3
3 54.5
3 67.6

2-90

4.7

4 .6

3.9

2.7

2.9

1.0

3.1

3.8

10.1

17.3

19.1

3-90

1.3

0.9

-0.1

-1.6

-1.9

-4.1

-3.3

-4.0

-1.7

-1.2

-8.6 -29.9

4-90

0.5

0.1

-0.8

-2.3

-2.6

-4.6

-4.0

-4.7

-3.0

-3.0

-8.5 -19.7

-8.2

1-91

1.0

0.6

- 0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-2.7

-3.2

-1.4

-1.1

-4.9 -11.8

-1.0

6.7

2-91

0.7

0.3

-0.4

-1.6

-1.8

-3.4

-2.7

-3.1

-1.6

-1.4

-4.4

-9.6

-1.6

1.9

-2.6

3-91

0.2

-0.2

-0.9

-2.0

-2.2

-3.7

-3.1

-3.5

-2.3

-2.2

-4.8

-9.0

-2.9

-1.1

-4.7

-6.8

4-91

0.6

0.3

-0.4

-1.4

-1.6

-2.8

-2.2

-2.5

-1.3

-1.0

-3.2

-6.5

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-0.1

7.1

1-92

2.9

2.7

2.2

1.4

1.4

0.5

1.3

1.4

2.9

3.6

2.2

0.0

6.1

9.2

9.8

14.3

26.7

49.8

2-92

3.0

2.8

2.3

1.6

1.6

0.8

1.6

1.6

3.1

3.7

2.5

0.6

5.9

8.4

8.8

11.8

18.9

25.2

4.7

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

384.0
351.4
344.0
3 49.6
3 47.3
341.2
347.1
384.0
388.4

C o r p o r ate p r o f i t s wit h capital c o nsumption and inventory v aluation adjustments. S e cond q uarter d a t a a r e final estimates.




Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 27, 1992

18

G ross Saving as a P e r c e n t o f GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T erminal
Q ua r t e r
3 -87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annu a l R a t e s
3 -89 4-89 1-90

B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92
783.7

4 -87

43.6

1-88

25.0

8.8

2-88

15.4

3.4

-1.7

3 -88

11.3

2.3

-0.8

4 -88

10.9

4.0

2.4

4.5

9.2

1-89

10.1

4.4

3.3

5.0

7.6

6.0

2-89

7.4

2.3

1.1

1.8

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

6.4

2.0

0.9

1.4

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

6.7

2.8

2.0

2.6

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

7.5

4.0

3.5

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.7

7.6

11.6

8 00.4
797.0
0.0

7 97.0
814.8
826.7
811.0
81 1 . 2
828.6
14.4

85 6 . 9

2-90

7.8

4.7

4.3

5.0

5.8

5.2

5.1

8.4

11.4

12.7

11.0

3-90

4.7

1.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

0.4

-0.5

1.0

1.2

-1.2

-8.2 -24.1

4-90

5.8

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.4

2.7

2.2

3.9

4.7

3.7

0.4

-4.5

20.1

1-91

6.4

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.7

5.4

6.3

5.8

3.8

1.5

17.4

14.8

2-91

6.2

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.4

3.9

3.7

5.2

5.9

5.4

3.7

2.0

12.5

8.9

3.4

3-91

5.4

3.3

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.2

0.5

7.8

4.0

-1.0

-5. 2

4-91

6.5

4.5

4.2

4.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.2

5.1

4.1

11.0

8.8

6.9

8. 6

24.5

1-92

6.5

4.6

4.4

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.9

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.5

10.2

8.4

6.8

8.0

15.3

6.7

2-92

6.6

4.8

4.6

5.0

5.3

5.0

5.0

6.1

6.6

6.4

5.6

4.9

9.9

8.3

7.0

7.9

12.7

7.3

7.8

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-51

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

879.5
820.9
859.3
8 89.4
896.9
88 4 . 9
934.8
9 50.1
9 68.1

S e c o n d quarter 1992 dat a are final estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f St. Lo u i s
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

B u sin e s s P r o d u c tiv ity and C o m p en sa tio n
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

198 6

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T e r m i n al
Quarter

Initial Qua r t e r
3 -87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

1982 - 100
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4-87

1.5

1-88

1.3

1.1

110.3

2-88

0.2

-0.4

-1.8

3-88

0.5

0.2

-0.2

1.5

4-88

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.7

0.0

1-89

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

-0.5

-1.4

-2.9

2-89

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.4

-1.0

-1.4

0.0

3 -89

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

-1.2

-1.6

-0.9

-1.8

4 -89

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

- 0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-0.5

-0.7

1-90

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.2

-0.2

0.6

0.7

2-90

0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.4

0.5

1.2

1.7

2.6

3-90

0.0

-0.2

- 0.3

-0.1

- 0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.5

-1.4

4-90

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.1

1-91

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

- 0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-1.5

2-91

-0.1

-0.2

- 0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.2

1.1

3-91

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.5

1.5

1.8

4-91

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.7

1.1

2.0

2.4

2.9

1-92

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.7

2.5

2.9

3.5

4.0

2-92

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.6

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.7

1.4

3-87

4-8 7

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

110.6




110.1
110.5
110.5
109.7
109.7
109.2
0.4

109.3
1 09.5
110.2
109.8
109.5
109.1
109.4
109.9
110.7
111.8
112.2

P r e pared b y Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
S eptember 3, 1992

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

4-87

9.2
8.4

8.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

6.8

2-90

4-90

3-90

Bi l l i o n s of
Dol l a r s
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

9.4

2-88

3-88

8.9

1-88

2-88

1,944.1
1,988.4
2,021.6

3-88

8.4

8.2

7.6

8.3

4-88

7.6

7.3

6.6

6.4

1-89

7.5

7.3

6.7

6.7

5.9

7.2

2-89

7.3

7.0

6.6

6.5

5.9

6.5

5.9

3-89

7.3

7.1

6.7

6.7

6.3

6.8

6.6

7.4

4-89

7.4

7.2

6.9

6.9

6.7

7.2

7.2

7.9

1-90

8.2

8.1

7.9

8.1

8.0

8.7

9.1

10.2

11.6

15.0

2-90

8.5

8.5

8.4

8.6

8.6

9.3

9.7

10.7

11.8

13.5

12.0

3-90

8.8

8.8

8.7

8.9

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.9

11.9

11.7

4-90

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.5

11.2

12.0

13.0

12.3

12.4

13.1

1-91

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.3

10.9

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.3

11.1

9.2

2-91

9.3

9.4

9.4

9.6

9.7

10.2

10.5

11.1

11.7

12.3

11.7

11.6

11.6

10.8

12.5

3-91

9.7

9.8

9.8

10.0

10.2

10.7

11.1

11.6

12.2

12.8

12.4

12.4

12.6

12.5

14.1

15.8

4-91

9.7

9.8

9.8

10.0

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.4

11.9

12.3

11.9

11.9

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.5

9.4

2,062.4
2,085.7

4.6

2 ,122.1
2,152.7
2,191.4
2,235.7

8.3

2,315.4
2,382.2
2,449.1
2 ,525.8
2 ,582.0
2,658.9
2,758.3
2 ,820.8

1-92

9.8

9.8

9.9

10.1

10.2

10.6

10.9

11.4

11.8

12.2

11.9

11.8

11.9

11.6

12.2

12.1

10.3

11.3

2-92

10.0

10.1

10.1

10.3

10.5

10.9

11.2

11.6

12.0

12.4

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.0

12.6

12.6

11.6

12.7

14.2

2,897.3

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2,994.8

P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
O ctober 23, 1992

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Resen/e Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.5
2548.8
2614.3
2672.8

498.9
528.3
552.1
584.8

1988.4
2021.6
2062.4
2085.7

220.8
227.1
232.7
231.6

1765.2
1796.9
1830.8
1853.8

330.9
343.5
348.6
362.7

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.1
2801.9
2870.1
2942.1

617.3
650.3
678.7
702.9

2122.1
2152.7
2191.4
2235.7

232.5
231.2
224.4
221.1

1887.1
1921.0
1967.8
2011.0

374.8
367.7
398.8
391.7

1990 March
June
September
December

3046.9
3146.8
3247.7
3353.0

734.0
766.2
798.4
822.3

2315.4
2382.2
2449.1
2525.8

223.5
230.7
236.8
250.9

2096.6
2156.0
2217.6
2282.6

383.3
390.0
407.8
418.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3458.3
3542.0
3681.5
3788.4

880.3
884.9
922.9
961.4

2582.0
2658.9
2758.3
2820.8

252.3
254.4
269.8
271.7

2339.8
2414.6
2500.6
2556.6

425.4
436.2
443.8
449.8

1992 March
June

3873.6
3988.7

978.4
995.9

2897.3
2994.8

273.1
276.3

2640.2
2731.5

466.8
491.0

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts

Expenditures
Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Quarters

Surplus or deficit(-)
Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 4 9 .9
-2 0 6 .3
-1 8 2 .0
-1 8 7 .2

-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-1 8 3 .3
-2 2 3 .8
-2 1 9 .7
-1 7 7 .5

-1 8 5 .0
-21 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 8 9 .7
-1 3 0 .3
-1 3 4 .5
-1 5 2 .7

-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 7 .8
-1 5 6 .9
-1 4 5 .6
-1 9 4 .6

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4

1160.1
1173.7

1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1

1257.9
1319.3

-1 4 9 .9
-2 1 2 .2
-2 2 1 .0
-2 5 8 .7

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6

1992 1
2
3

1143.3
1149.8

N .A .

N .A .

-2 8 9 .2
-3 0 2 .9

N .A .

N .A .

N .A .

N .A .

1432.5
1452.7
1449.5

N .A .

N .A .

N .A .

N .A . —

N .A .
N .A .

N .A .

N .A .
N .A .

N .A .
N .A .

N .A .

N o t A v a ila b le

Fiscal years
Actual
1984

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$

1985
734.1

$

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992
$ 10 91.7

9 9 0 .7

$ 10 31.3

$ 1054.3

8 5 1 .8

9 4 6.3

9 9 0 .3

10 03.8

1064.1

1144.1

1251.8

1323.8

13 81.9

$ -1 8 5 .3

$ -2 1 2 .3

$ -2 2 1 .2

$ -1 4 9 .7

$ -1 5 5 .1

$ -1 5 3 .4

$ -2 2 0 .5

$ -2 6 9 .5

$ -2 9 0 .2

$ 11 22.2

6 6 6 .5

$

1987

1986
769.1

$

854.1

$

9 0 9.0

$

Calendar years

National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)
Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$

7 2 5 .8

8 2 7 .2

9 7 2 .3

$ 10 5 9 .3

$ 1 1 0 7 .4

8 9 2 .7

9 6 9.9

1 028.2

1 0 65.6

1109.0

11 8 1 .6

12 73.6

13 32.7

$ -1 6 6 .9

$ -1 8 1 .4

$ -2 0 1 .0

$ -1 5 1 .8

$ -1 3 6 .6

$ -1 2 2 .3

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -2 1 0 .4

$

$

$

$

$

$ 11 00.8

7 5 4 .5

$

78 8.6

8 9 0 .3

8 0 8.5
9 8 0.3

$ -1 3 5 .8

$ -1 7 1 .9

$

844.1
1 0 29.4

$ -1 8 5 .4

$

9 1 3 .8

9 1 7 .6

$

9 4 9 .7

$ 10 25.5

1 0 71.6

1115.9

11 89.6

$ -1 5 4 .0

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -1 6 4 .1

1278.1
$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis



22

G o v ern m en t D e fic it(- ) /S u r p l u s ( +)
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

0

0

-5 0

-5 0
Tot al

-1 0 0

'

-1 0 0
/
1
\
/

/

J

-1 5 0

\

-2 0 0

.

*
*

^

\V

Fee eral

'

-1 5 0

*

-2 0 0
\ \

-2 5 0

-2 5 0
>

-3 0 0

-3 0 0

-3 5 0 1

1

1

1

1

1986

I

!

1

1987

1

,

1

1988

j

,

....1

1989

1

1

«

1990

I

1

r-

1991

1

I

i -3 5 0

1992

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Qua r t e r

Initial Quarter
4-87

1-88

1-88

-0.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

-2.5

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
A n nual R a t e s
1-92
2-92

1.2

2-88

2-88

1-90

2 96.7
294.8

3-88

-0.8

-1.8

-1.1

4-88

0.3

0.0

1.4

3.9

294.0

1-89

-0.6

-1.1

-0.6

-0.3

-4.4

2-89

0.5

0.4

1.2

1.9

0.9

6.6

3-8 9

1.8

1.9

2.8

3.8

3.8

8.2

4-89

1.1

1.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

2.3

2.5

3.2

4.0

4.0

6.2

6.0

4.2

12.6

2-90

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.6

3.6

5.3

4.9

3.3

7.0

1.7

3-90

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.2

3.4

2.7

1.0

2.6

-2.0

-5.6

5.5

4.7

6.8

5.0

6.7

20.6

296.8
2 93.5
298.2
9.9

30 5 . 3
30 2 . 5
311.6
312.9
308.4

4-90

3.0

3.2

3.7

4.3

4.4

5.7

1-91

3.7

3.9

4.5

5.0

5.2

6.4

6.4

5.8

7.8

6.7

8.4

16.2

2-91

2.8

2.9

3.4

3.8

3.8

4.8

4.5

3.8

5.1

3.7

4.2

7.6

1.7

-7. 6

3-91

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.7

3.6

2.2

2.3

4.4

-0.5

- 6.2

-4.8

4-91

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.0

0.6

0.4

1.6

-2.6

-7.0

-6.8

-8.7

1-92

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.4

-5. 7

-5.0

-5.1

-1.4

2-92

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.9

1.5

0.8

1.2

0.0

-0.2

0.6

-2.4

-5.0

-4.4

-4.2

-1.9

-2.4

3-92

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.0

1.4

1.8

0.8

0.7

1.6

-0.9

- 2.9

-1.9

-1. 2

1.4

2.9

8.5

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

32 3 . 2
11.9

332.4
32 5 . 9
32 1 . 9
314.7
313.6
311.7
318.1

T h i r d quarter d ata are a dvance estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y Fede r a l R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis
O c t o b e r 27, 1992

23

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Te r a i n a l
Quarter

Initial Quarter
4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1-88

0.4

2-88

2.4
0.5

0.5

-3.4

4-8 8

4.8

6.3

7.2

6.6

8.2

9.5

16.6

6.2

7.4

8.1

12.2

9.1

5.3

6.1

6.5

9.1

6.0

2.1

4-8 9

6.5

7.4

7.8

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

7.5

8.5

9.1

11.3

9.8

8.7

10.3

15.8

7.3

8.0

8.5

10.3

8.9

7.9

8.9

11.9

10.5

4.6

3-9 0

6.7

7.4

7.7

9.2

7.8

6.8

7.3

9.2

7.4

3.0

1.5

4-90

7.1

7.8

8.1

9.5

8.4

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

6.0

6.6

1-91

4.8

5.2

5.2

6.1

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.2

2.2

-1.2

-3.0

2-91

6.7

7.2

7.4

8.4

7.4

6.7

7.0

8.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

6.5

3-91

6.9

7.3

7.6

8.5

7.6

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.3

5.8

6.1

4-91

7.6

8.1

8.4

9.3

8.6

8.1

8.5

9.4

8.8

7.7

8.2

1-92

8.2

8.7

9.0

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.3

10.3

9.8

8.9

2-92

8.2

8.7

8.9

9.8

9.2

8.8

9.2

10.1

9.6

3 -92

7.6

8.0

8.2

8.9

8.3

7.9

8.2

8.9

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

Bi l l i o n s of D ollars
Annual Rates
2-92

16.6

2-90

1-92

15.0

1-90

4-91

4.1

3-8 9

3-91

14.4

2-89

2-91

18.8

1-89

1-91

4.5

3-8 8

4-90

80 1 . 3
810.2
803.3
838.7
86 7 . 3
876.0
0.1

876.2
90 7 . 3
94 2 . 9
95 3 . 6
9 57.1
98 4 . 7

12.0

932.0

-5.2 -19.7

1,003.5

3.9

34.4

7.3

5.7

21.4

9.6

9.6

9.0

20.7

14.4

19.4

9.6

11.0

10.8

20.1

15.6

1 8.7

18.1

8.8

9.4

10.6

10.3

17.6

13.7

15.1

13.0

8.1

8.4

7.6

7.9

8.7

8.3

13.8

10.1

10.2

7.3

2.2

-3.3

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

1,026.8
1,073.4
1 ,118.9
1,141.0
1,131.4

T h i r d q uarter data are adv a n c e estimates.




P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e B ank of St. Louis
Octo b e r 27, 1992

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102