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Business AN EIGHTH DISTRICT PERSPECTIVE SUMMER 1987 The Eighth District’s Economy: A Microcosm of the Nation’s Employment growth in the Eighth District economy generally has mirrored national growth. The average annual growth rates of nonfarm payroll employment in the District and nation were virtually identical from 1971 through 1986. During this period, average annual employment growth in the District was 2.1 percent, just one-tenth of a percent less than the nation’s. The chart on the following page, which compares yearly growth rates of District and national nonfarm employment, indicates that the District’s growth was a bit stronger in the early seventies and slightly weaker in the early eighties, but the general similarity of the growth rates throughout the period is clear. This issue discusses two factors that help explain the similarity of District and national employment growth: the distribution of employment among sectors in the region and the nation, and the growth rates of the individual sectors. The table on the next page shows the 1986 distribution of employment among the eight major employment sectors for the District and the United States. Although manufacturing accounts for a somewhat larger, and services a somewhat smaller, share of the District economy, the resemblance is striking. This structural similarity has existed for years. In the 1950s and 1960s, for instance, both the regional and the national economies were characterized by relatively larger manufacturing sectors and smaller services sectors than in 1986. Comparing Growth of Individual Sectors The resemblance of employment composition at the District and national levels helps explain, but does not guarantee, similar expansions of total nonfarm employment. If the growth of individual sectors is dissimilar at the regional Employment Composition and national levels, dissimilar growth of overall employment would be likely as well. If the structure of the District’s economy differed In the Eighth District and the nation, however, employment substantially from the nation’s, differences in employment growth has been similar in each of the major employment growth would not be surprising. For example, if a region sectors of the nonfarm economy. The table shows the is more heavily specialized than the nation in relatively slowsimilarity. The largest difference, between the regional and growing sectors, such as mining or manufacturing, its overall national financial sectors, is only one half of one percent. employment growth would tend to trail the nation’s. Last Although slight differences exist between the regional and year’s employment declines in states heavily dependent on the struggling oil extraction industries — national growth rates for six of the eight Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana — are sectors, statistical tests indicate that these examples. differences are likely due to random variation THE On the other hand, to the extent a region’s in the data. The test also indicates that the FEDERAL economic structure is similar to the nation’s, average growth rates of total nonfarm KISIKM RAN K of its growth tends to parallel the nation’s employment for the region and the nation are ST. IXH IS growth. The Eighth District and the nation not significantly different in a statistical sense. share very similar employment structures. SUMMER 1987 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS A n n u al Nonfarm Payroll Em plo ym ent Grow th Percent Summary The District’s economy has mirrored the nation’s both in employment composition and in growth of individual sectors. Together, these similarities have insured that the District’s overall employment growth has resembled the nation’s since 1971. Similar growth paths also have been found for regional and national personal income, retail sales and the value of construction contracts. These similarities are not surprising given the integration of the region with the rest of the nation. To the extent that past trends persist, continued similarity of regional and national economic growth is likely. The knowledge of this similarity is useful in predicting change in the regional economy. Since economic forecasts are scarce at the regional level, national forecasts can be used to infer probable changes in the region’s economy. —Thomas B. Mandelbaum Composition and Growth of Nonfarm Employment by Major Sector Percent of Nonfarm Employment, 1986 Nonfarm em ploym ent Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportation and public utilities W holesale and retail trade Finance, insurance and real estate Services Government District U.S. ... ... 0.9% 4.6 22.4 5.7 23.5 5.2 20.8 16.8 0.8% 4.9 19.2 5.3 23.8 6.3 23.0 16.7 Average Annual Growth, 1971-86 District 2.1% 1.4 1.9 0.3 1.4 2.9 3.0 4.3 1.8 U.S. 2.2% 1.8 2.2 0 .0 1.0 2.9 3.5 4.4 1.8 Business—An Eighth District Perspective is a quarterly summary of business conditions in the area served by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single subscriptions are available free of charge by writing: Research and Public Information Department, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, Missouri 63166. Views expressed are not necessarily official positions of the Federal Reserve System. 2 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SUMMER 1987 EIGHTH DISTRICT BUSINESS DATA Rates of Change1 C u rre n t Q u a rte r G e n e r a l B u s in e s s In d e x e s 2 Arkansas Kentucky Missouri Tennessee P a y ro ll E m p lo y m e n t United States District Arkansas Little Rock Kentucky Louisville Missouri St. Louis Tennessee Memphis M a n u fa c tu r in g E m p lo y m e n t United States District Arkansas Kentucky Missouri Tennessee R e ta il S a le s 3 United States Arkansas Kentucky Missouri Tennessee P e rs o n a l In c o m e United States District Arkansas Kentucky Missouri Tennessee 1986 1985 1 /1 9 8 7 3.8% - 1 .5 3.0 4.5 0.6% 0.8 2.0 3.5 0.8% 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.6% 4.4 4.4 5.4 2.4% 2.5 2.5 0.7 2.3 2.9 1.5 1.2 3.6 4.2 2.9% 2.5 1.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.3 3.2 3.1 4.5% 4.5 3.8 3.6 5.3 4.0 4.7 4.3 4.2 5.1 - 0.6% - 0 .2 2.4 - 0 .4 - 3 .0 1.1 -1 .2 % - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 1 .4 - 1 .6 3.2% 3.3 2.6 4.7 3.5 2.6 6.3% 2.3 - 2 .4 2.9 5.4 6.4% 2.2 12.6 2.1 7.8 7.3% 2.4 0.1 9.3 10.8 4.4% 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.6 5.9 6.2% 5.7 4.8 4.2 6.2 6.6 8.4% 8.7 8.2 8.1 8.9 9.2 1 /1 9 8 7 3.0% 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.8 2.9 2.3 2.9 8.4 5.3 1 /1 9 8 7 0.9% 2.7 4.4 5.3 0.4 2.5 IV /1 9 8 6 0.3% -1 .1 - 8 .2 -4 .1 - 5 .5 IV /1 9 8 6 3.6% 2.7 2.0 0.9 1.0 6.4 District Employment1 K e y In d u s tr ie s Fabricated Metal Products Electrical and Electronic Equipment Nonelectrical Machinery Transportation Equipment Food and Kindred Products Textile and Apparel Printing and Publishing Chemicals and Allied Products Construction 1984 Prices1 C u rre n t Q u a rte r C u rre n t Y e a r C u rre n t Q u a rte r C u rre n t Y e a r 1 /1 9 8 7 1/1 9 8 6 - 1 /1 9 8 7 1 /1 9 8 7 1 /1 9 8 6 - 1 /1 9 8 7 -5 .2 % 6.9 1.4 - 4 .5 - 4 .5 - 1 .5 - 2 .0 1.0 -2 3 .6 -0 .2 % - 1 .9 - 0 .9 - 5 .0 4.9 1.3 - 1 .2 - 0 .6 8.9 0.8% 1.2 2.0 0.0 -2 .1 1.1 7.2 5.6 1.3 0.6% 1.5 1.6 3.2 1.9 0.4 3.7 - 0 .6 1.0 3 EIGHTH DISTRICT BUSINESS DATA U n e m p lo y m e n t R a te U n ite d S tates D is tric t A rk a n s a s L ittle R o ck K e n tu c k y L o u is v ille M isso u ri St. Lo uis Tennessee M e m p h is C o n s tr u c t io n C o n tr a c ts 4 Current Quarter Previous Quarter 1 /1 9 8 7 IV /1 9 8 6 Average 1986 Average 1985 6.7% 7.4 8.1 7.1 9.7 7.4 5.8 6.7 7.2 6.0 6.8% 7.5 9.0 7.7 8.5 6.5 6.2 7.2 7.6 6.6 7.0% 7.7 8.8 6.9 9.2 7.0 6.1 7.0 8.0 6.8 7.9 8.7 6.4 9.5 7.9 6.4 7.5 8.0 6.6 Current Quarter Previous Quarter Same Period 1986 Same Period 1985 1 /1 9 8 7 IV /1 9 8 6 1 /1 9 8 6 1 /1 9 8 5 $584.4 52.1 113.8 213.6 204.9 $552.5 59.4 104.2 195.0 193.8 $513.9 68.3 108.2 169.3 168.1 $497.8 62.9 99.6 145.8 189.5 $388.7 30.7 120.7 108.0 129.3 $368.4 28.8 101.8 119.6 118.3 $345.7 38.0 73.6 133.7 100.4 $376.1 31.6 68.0 123.2 153.4 7.20/0 (m illio n s o f d o lla rs ) R e s id e n t ia l C o n s tr u c t io n D is tric t A rk a n s a s K e n tu c k y M isso u ri Tennessee N o n r e s id e n tia l C o n s tr u c t io n D is tric t A rk a n s a s K e n tu c k y M is s o u ri Tennessee the exception of employment and prices in key industries, all data are seasonally adjusted. Data for Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri and Tennessee are used to represent the District. 1 All growth rates are compounded annual rates of change. The 1984 through 1986 growth rates compare the fourth quarter of the year listed with the fourth quarter of the previous year. 2Although each index is a comprehensive measure of economic activity, the Arkansas and Missouri indexes, computed by Southwestern Bell, are not strictly comparable to the Kentucky and Tennessee indexes, which are computed by South Central Bell. 3Sources: Arkansas from Southwestern Bell, Kentucky from the Kentucky Revenue Department, Missouri and Tennessee from the U.S. Department of Commerce. 4Excludes nonbuilding construction. Source: F. W. Dodge Construction Potentials, proprietary data provided by special permission. N O TE: With