Full text of Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) : May 1969
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
business • revIew may 1969 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALlAS This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) l contents federally assisted family food programs . . ....... . ............ . 3 resurgence in business fixed investment ........... . ........ . ...... . 9 district highlights ................. . ......... J4. fede,.ally assisted family food p,.og,-a,ns For many years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has been cooperating with state and local authorities in providing low-income families with supplemental food. Such assistance currently is being furnished through two basic types of programs - the Commodity Distribution Program and the Food Stamp Program. The Commodity Distribution Program is the older of the two types of programs and, until recently, has been the more important. Commodity distribution programs originated in the early 1930's, when surplus foods were given directly to the poor and unemployed. A food stamp program was in operation betWeen 1939 and 1943 but was discontinued When wartime demands increased incomes and reduced unemployment. This stamp program Was directly related to surplus commodities. In 1961, a new food stamp plan was initiated on a pilot basis, and the plan was given more perIllanent status by the passage of the Food Stamp Act of 1964. The program was established to remedy some of the weaknesses of the Com1ll0dity Distribution Program. Both the Commodity Distribution and the l100d Stamp Pf0grams are in operation in parts of the Southwest. The purpose of this article is to highlight the background and growth of these two programs in the United States and in the live states of tlle Eleventh Federal Reserve District. One section of the article will discuss how successful each program seems to be in achieving the goals outlined by the framers of the enabling legislation. commodity d, stribution program i As mentioned earlier, the Commodity DistribUtion Program is the oldest governmental fam- ily food-assistance program operating at this time. Under tlns program, food commodities declared to be in surplus supply, as well as other purchased foods, are shipped by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to various distribution centers throughout the Nation for redistribution to low-income fanrilies and to institutions. Presently, the USDA carries out its surplus food donation program to the needy under two authorities: section 32 of Public Law 320, approved in 1935, and section 416 of Public Law 439, approved in 1949. The USDA also distributes food to participants in the school lunch programs under section 6 of the National School Lunch Act, passed in 1946. Sections 32 and 416 are intended to provide food assistance to families and institutions, and section 6 is a part of child nutrition programs. The following article will focus on the family food-assistance programs. Under section 32, an annual appropriation is provided to the USDA for the general purpose of expanding the demand for agricultural commodities. Specifically, the legislation was to give assistance to agricultural products in excess supply and to producers suffering from low prices. Section 32 legislation permits the USDA to make surplus-removal purchases of commodities, usually those tllat are in excess supply at the tinle of peak marketing. The commodities acquired under section 32 generally do not move into Government inventory but are shipped to centers throughout the country for redistribution to eligible recipients. Section 416 of Public Law 439 provides authorization for the distribution of agricultural commodities that have been acquired by the Commodity Credit Corporation under price- business review/may 1969 3 food stamp program support programs. Under section 416, commodities held by the CCC that cannot be sold or bartered are made available to school lunch programs and to needy families and institutions in the United States. Any quantities in excess of domestic requirements are eligible for use by needy persons abroad. The Food Stamp Program authorized by Congress in 1964 has dual objectives: (1) to improve diets by increasing the ability of needy persons or families to purchase more and better foods and (2) to expand the domestic markets for agricultural products. The cost of Federal assistance to needy persons and institutions under the Commodity Distribution Program has varied significantly. Federal assistance was at the extremely low level of less than $2 million in fiscal 1945 but subsequently rose to a record of about $257 million in fiscal 1965. With the introduction of the Food Stamp Program, the cost of Federal assistance to the commodity program declined sharply in 1966 and 1967, but such cost increased again in fiscal 1968. The slight increase in cost in 1968 reflected the greater variety of foods made available in the program, since the number of participants continued to move downward. Through the stamp plan, participants are able to increase their food-purchasing power by excbanging the amount of money they would normally spend for food for an allotment of coupons of a higher monetary value. These coupons are used by needy persons and families to purchase domestically produced foods from retail food outlets at prevailing prices. Authorized merchants redeem the food coupons for cash at commercial banks, which present the coupons to a Federal Reserve bank for payment through appropriate collection channels. Food stamps are liabilities of the U.s· Treasury Department, and Federal Reserve banks serve as fiscal agents of the Treasury. COST OF FEDERAL ASSISTANCE TO FAMILY FOOD PROGRAMS IN THE UNITED STATES MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 300 . ... .. • FOOD STAMP PROGRAM 200 1960 1961 1968 pr e liminary . SOURCE : U. S. Da parlm ent of Agr ic ultur e . 4 1962 • 1963 II 1964 FISCAL YEARS • 1965 I 1966 1967 1968 After Congress authorized the permanent Food Stamp Program in 1964, the number of counties and cities participating grew to 324 by 1966, to 838 in 1967, and to approximately 1,550 local governmental units by the first of the current year. The average monthly participation in the program in fiscal 1968 was slightly more than 2.2 million people, up sharply from 1.4 million in fiscal 1967 and from 0.9 million in fiscal 1966. The total value of food coupons ' issued in fiscal 1968 amounted to $455 million; $282 million of this was paid for by partiCipants, and $173 million was the cost to the Federal Government. With the authorization of the stamp plan in 1964, the USDA proposed to make the Food Stamp Program tlle first-line food delivery system in the war on poverty. Consequently, the cost of Federal assistance under sections 32 and 416 declined; and in fiscal 1968, the Federal subsidy under the Food Stamp Program surpassed Federal assistance to institutions and needy persons under the Commodity Distribution Program. geographical participation By January 1, 1969, one or the other of the two family food-assistance programs was in operation or planned in approximately 2,640 Counties throughout the Nation. About 83 perCent of the population of the United States resides in these counties. The number of participants in bOtll pJ;ograms had reached nearly 6.5 million persons, and the USDA estimates that this number will likely increase to 7.0 million participants by the end of fiscal 1969. Most of the increase probably will occur in the Food Stamp Program if present trends continue. At the beginning of this year, there were only about 480 counties and cities which did not operate Under the programs. The map on the following page shows ilie participation in boili the Commodity Distribution Program and the Food Stamp Program. At the beginning of 1969, only six states had a PERSONS PARTICIPATING IN FAMILY FOOD PROGRAMS IN THE UNITED STATES MILLIONS OF PERSON S 10 8 6 COMMODITY DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM (Peak mo nth ) 4 2 FOOD STAMP PROGRAM (Month ly avora g e) o ~~::r::::::L~-1...--L~ 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 FISCAL YEARS 1968 pr olimina ry. SOURCE : U.S. Depa rtm ont o f Agri cultur e. family food-assistance program in all of their counties and cities. (Under present regulations, the programs cannot operate simultaneously in the same area.) Program participation is heaviest in the Mississippi River Basin and in Mountain and Far Western States. In the southwestern states of Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, some counties in each state participate in the Commodity Distribution Program. In fact, all counties in Arizona and all but three counties in Oklahoma participate in ilie commodity program. Counties in Arizona and Oklahoma have not participated in tlle Food Stamp Program, although a majority of tlle counties in Louisiana and New Mexico and a few counties in Texas are participants. The greatest concentrations of participants in tlle stamp program in business review/may 1969 5 the Southwest are in Louisiana and New Mexico. Less than 5 percent of the total population in the five southwestern states participated in the family food-assistance programs at the first of this year, with the proportions for the individual states ranging from slightly over 9 percent in Oklahoma to below 3 percent in Texas. In the Nation, less than 4 percent of the population participated in the programs. program procedures Under current legislation, both the Food Stamp Program and the Commodity Distribution Program are operated as joint Federalstate-local efforts. Generally, counties, parishes, or townships desiring to participate in one of the two programs work through the state's wel- fare office. Once a program is approved, the eligibility of participants is determined according to standards used by the state in its own welfare programs. Under the Commodity Distribution Program, participants are usually given punch cards to show proof of their eligibility to receive food monthly at distribution centers. Under the Food Stamp Program, coupons are usually issued by local welfare departments or commercial banks. Recently, some states were given authority to deliver stamps to individual recipients by mail witllOut being held liable for loss (Texas has been authorized to use mail delivery). The dollar amount of food coupons received monthly by eligible individuals or families is based upon the amount of purchasing power necessary to provide an adequate diet as defined GEOGRAPHICAL PARTICIPATION IN FAMILY FOOD PROGRAMS, JANUARY 1969 , SOURCE : .u .S. Oopa rtm t nl 01 AQrl cu lturo, 6 COMMODITY DISTRIBUT ION PROGRAM • FOOD STAMP PROGRAM DO NOT Finally, the relative cost of the two food distribution methods should be evaluated. 00 NOT FOLD SPINDLE ; : ; ! I, I NON·THAN5f£RAB lE I'XCl:l'f '. IJr~ tll: 1I CONllITWNS 1'1I1 ~ S(; IIIIJI : 1J IIY TIll: Sr:CIlF.l'AIIY UF AWIIC;\l IJUW: - I ' ! , 1 1M .,,!!gj.!);;!L*9Mj ' +-'t'.jji'.M'it4!.!i- ~ DO DO NOT NOT I I SPINDLE FOLD AlrlcuUur.1 Abundm. NON .THANSFERABlE I:XCI:I'T UNIII:II (;O NIIIII ClNS I'HI'5(;III III:" IIV TilE SWIF.rAIIY OF AHlIIGIII.TlIIII' by local authorities, assisted by the USDA. Cost of the coupons to the participant is based Upon the family's income and the number of dependents. The difference between the value of coupons received by a participant and the cost paid by the receiver is referred to as bonus power; mathematically, the cost of the stamps and their bonus value are inversely correlated. Food coupons are issued in books of 50-cent and $2 denominations, and families use the coupons to buy domestically produced food at retail stores authorized to accept them by the USDA's Consumer and Marketing Service. Authorized retailers agree to abide by the rules governing the use of such food coupons. program goals The relative effectiveness of the two family food-assistance programs probably could be evaluated in the light of three variables. First, and possibly most important, is the influence the programs have on increasing the dietary standards of low-income families. Second, the programs should be evaluated as to their influence on increasing the aggregate demand for farm products, thereby raising farm income. improving dietary standards The potential for substantially improving the diets of low-income families under the Commodity Distribution Program was quite low up to 1961 because the foods distributed were basically limited to five commodities. Since 1961, a greater variety of commodities has been available; and by the beginning of 1969, a maximum of about 22 commodities, valued at $12.75 per person monthly, could be distributed under the program. However, not all participating areas were distributing the maximum number of commodities. Despite the fact that the number of commodities available under the Commodity Distribution Program has increased, the Food Stamp Program has the potential of providing a superior nutritional diet. Food stamp coupons can be used to purchase any basic foods at retail food stores at existing prices (no iInported foods may be purchased). Since the choice of foods under the Commodity Distribution Program is dependent, in most cases, upon which commodities are in excess supply or have been acquired by the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Food Stamp Program - with no such restrictions - would seem to offer the housewife a better opportunity to prepare a wider range of nutritious meals. The success of either type of program in increasing the dietary standards of participants is, however, limited by substitution. If any food acquired under either of the two programs is substituted for purcbases that would have been made otherwise, the net increase in total food consumption would be smaller than anticipated. Both programs are intended to supplement food consumption; they are not intended to replace usual or previous levels of consumption. The Food Stamp Program may be more effective than the Commodity Distribution Pro- business review/ may 1969 7 gram in limiting the ability of participants to substitute the new purchasing power for previous purchasing ability. Participants are required to pay for food coupons, and the amount necessary to purchase stamps is based, in part, on the income of the recipient. Under the Commodity Distribution Program, recipients pick up their free commodities at cen~ral d.istributing points and may do as they WIsh WIth the income that would have been spent for food if the free commodities were not available. increasing farm income The influence of family food-assistance programs upon farm income naturally depends upon the extent to which the programs add to aggregate demand. Whether or not aggregate demand for farm products has been increased is difficult to determine because some assumption must be made as to what aggregate demand would have been without the family food programs. For simplicity, it is assumed that all food consumed by recipients under the two programs is an addition to aggregate demand; this assumption, in essence, implies that the substitution effects of the programs are zero. The food distributed under the Commodity Distribution Program to institutions and needy persons in fiscal 1968 amounted to approximately 860 million pounds. At average market values, this quantity of food probably represented no more than one-half of 1 percent of total U.S. gross farm income. Federal subsidy to the Food Stamp Program in fiscal 1968 amounted to around $173 million, which represented about one-third of 1 percent of farm income. The effect of both programs on gross farm income was, therefore, less than 1 percent. In addition, since the Food Stamp Program is not directly tied in with surplus commodities, as is the case for the Commodity Distribution Program, it is likely that the increased consumption induced by the food coupons had little effect on the demand for most surplus commodities, such as the basic food grains. 8 cost of programs The direct costs of purchases and the amount of subsidies paid by the Federal Government for both programs reached a total of about $321 million in fiscal 1968. However, the data available on this assistance are not adequate to permit a definitive analysis of all of the costs of each program on a common basis since the figures do not include state and local cost. Some analysts have taken the position that the Food Stamp Program may be the more efficient of the two programs. The reason given is that the Food Stamp Program utilizes tlle usual channels of distribution in the marketplace, while the Commodity Distribution Program requires a special distribution network. The USDA admits that the Commodity Distribution Program is a difficult program to administer. Furthermore, the two programs may have different impacts on the local economy and may, therefore, involve some social cost. If the substitution rate under the Commodity Distribution Program is greater than zero, the program would have an adverse effect on retail food sales in the local community. By operating within tlle free market system, the Food Stamp Program stimulates retail food sales, and the amount of additional spending for food would equal the value of the bonus coupons minus any substitution. Surveys by the USDA on the impact of the pilot food stamp plan on retail food store sales showed tllat the dollar volume of food sales in the pilot areas rose around 8 percent over the year immediately preceding the initiation of the Food Stamp Program. The largest percentage sales gain recorded by the survey stores was for fresh produce, a food category for which an increase in consumption is generally indicative of higher nutrition levels. Because of their perishability, fresh fruits and vegetables are usually not available to participants in the Commodity Distribution PrograJ1l· The value of food stamps redeemed by all stores in the survey also averaged 8 percent of total sales volume. The concept of providing food assistance for low-income families has moved into a flew dimension with the introduction of the Food Stamp Program. Emphasis has changed from a means of distributing surplus food to a method of increasing the food-purchasing power of low- income families so that these families can obtain a nutritious diet through the efficient food distribution system available to other U.S. families. There is also a growing interest in furnishing information and education on the proper selection and care of food in order to create a change in attitudes toward the kinds of foods to purchase for family health. CHARLES M . WILSON ,eesurgence i,,, business fixed i •• vestment Plant and equipment expenditures are one of the major factors affecting the business cycle. Periods of high business activity in the past have been associated with high levels of business spending for investment; conversely, a slackening in economic activity has been associated with a low rate of business investment. Included as a measure of plant and equipment eXpenditures are all outlays of private businesses for new plants, machinery, and equipment for which depreciation accounts are maintained. Excluded are investments in agriculture and spending by real estate finns, the professions, and nonprofit organizations. Total expenditures for new plants and equipment in 1969 are expected to rise 14 percent above those for last year and reach $73 billion, with outlays advancing substantially for most major manufacturing industries and for all major nonmanufacturing sectors. The rise in ?Usiness fixed investment for 1969, as indicated In the joint survey released in March by the ~.S. Department of Commerce and the SecUl'ities and Exchange Commission, is well above the 4-percent increase in 1968. A further rise in plant and equipment expenditures in the current year would extend to 8 the number of years in which business fixed investment has shown consecutive increases, but the vigor of the expansion from year to year has varied markedly. One of the major forces behind the pronounced percentage gain ill anticipated business fixed investment during 1969 has been the effect of a rapidly rising price level upon decisions made by the business community. This influence is especially evident in the CommerceSEC survey published in March this year, as the one taken in the fall of 1968 had projected the annual rate of expenditures during the first half of 1969 at 9 percent higher than in the full year 1968. Of course, if the projected rise of 14 percent in dollar outlays in 1969 does occur, "real" expenditures will not experience as large an increase because construction and machinery costs continue to expand. Motivation toward increased spending also comes from businessmen's beliefs in rapidly expanding markets in the early 1970's, resulting from the growth in popUlation and an even business review/may 1969 9 greater advance in personal income. A recent McGraw-Hill survey found that businessmen indicated preliminary plans to spend larger amounts on plants and equipment each suc~ cessive year through 1972. Since added capacity in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries is considered necessary to accommodate future demand, business leaders apparently believe that now is the time to expand facilities because delayed projects may carry a higher price tag. The sharp increase in business investment for 1969 which was indicated in the March survey has added further to the concern regarding the inflationary expectations that permeate the economy. major influences Numerous factors affect spending by business for fixed investment, and one of the most important is sales, both current and expected. In 1965 and 1966, when plant and equipment expenditures were expanding rapidly, retail sales advanced about 8 percent per year. During this time, Defense Department outlays for the VietNam war were also rising. On the other hand, there was only a small gain in retail sales during 1967, and only a small increase occurred in business fixed investment. In the past year, sales again began to rise rapidly, and investment began to accelerate, especially toward the latter part of the year. Another factor that has a major effect on plant and equipment expenditures is the expected rate of return on new investment in relation to the cost of capital funds . Profits are one method, albeit a crude one, of appraising the rate of return on business fixed investment. During the mid sixties, corporate profits after taxes rose substantially - particularly in 1965, when they advanced 21 percent from the level of the preceding year. After-tax profits rose further in 1966 and, since that time, have held at levels well above those in the early 1960's. The cost of capital funds also has risen substantially since the midsixties, when the rate 10 for Moody's Aaa bonds was 4.5 percent. The increased costs probably have had only a slightly moderating effect on planned outlays in relation to expected returns on investment. The cost of loanable funds reached historic highs for the 20th century during the first quarter of tlus year. Around mid-March, the rate for Moody's Aaa bonds was 6.8 percent. An increasingly restrictive monetary policy beginrling last fall was made even more restrictive with the advances in the Federal Reserve discount rate and in member bank reserve requirements in early April. It is expected that the curtailment of credit availability and the increased cost of funds will dampen capital spending programs, but the extent cannot be predicted. The investment tax credit, which permitS most companies to subtract from their final tax bill 7 percent of the cost of equipment and machinery, also has influenced plant and equipment expenditures. This investment tax credit was introduced in 1962 in order to encourage private investment but was suspended in the fall of 1966, when it was felt that tlle economY needed to be restrained. The credit was reinstated in the spring of 1967. Recently, the Administration recommended repeal of this taX credit. Accelerated depreciation, another stUnulative measure, was in effect from 1954 until it was suspended in 1966 but, like the investment credit, was reinstated later. Another major factor influencing plant and equipment expenditures is the rate of capacitY utilization in manufacturing. In 1964, industrial enterprises used 86 percent of their available capacity; and by 1966, a year of excessive demand for goods, the rate had advanced to 91 percent. Subsequently, the rate decreased and, in the first quarter of 1969, was about 84 percent. Plant and equipment spending by manufacturers eased slightly in both 1967 and 1968, with outlays of durable goods producers shO~ Lng the greatest weakness. New equipment IS PLANT AND EQUIPMENT EXPENDITURES BY U.S. BUSINESS . BILLIONS OF DOL.LARS (Seasonallv adi u s t ed ;\ l1nual r a te s ) 80 ACTUAL _ _ _ _ _ __ ANTICIPATED ____ • • • • • • 70 ALL INDUSTRIES 60 50 40 , ,,-- 30 ....- MANUFACTURING 20 COMMUNICATWN , COMMERCIAL AND OTHER , ... _--- 10 PU BLiC UTILITIES 'TRANSPORTATION, INCLUDING RAIL MINING o SO URC ES : Securities and E XC ha~gC Commissio n. ----'\"'""---'""':'-----:-----1-.. ---1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 U. S. Department of Commerco. business review/may 1969 11 installed to increase industrial capacity; however it is also necessary for an industry to replac~ obsolescent equipment ~. order to keep costs down and remain competitive. The extent to which excess capacity in manufacturing has a significant influence on total plant and equipment expenditures has been questioned, because of the presence of aging equipment and variations in the evaluation of excess capacity from industry to industry. The need for new capacity must be weighed carefully, for new equipment that is idled through a lack of demand would prove to be expensive. Increasingly since the midsixties, investment decisions have been made to obtain more technologically advanced equipment in order to reduce total labor costs. The shortage of skilled labor has become progressively more acute. Unit labor costs, which had eased slightly in 1962 from the levels of the previous 2 years, were relatively stable until 1966 but subsequently have moved upward continuously. The strong growth in the rate of plant and equipment spending now forecast for this year is partially explained by the results of the survey on "Manufacturers' Evaluation of Their Capacity," conducted by the Commerce Department and the SEC in December 1968. Of the manufacturers participating in the survey, 47 percent believed that their capacity was inadequate in relation to sales expectations for the next 12-month period, which is an increase of 2 percentage points from a survey taken a few months earlier. On a quarterly basis, tlle evaluation of capacity needed has risen steadily since the March 1968 survey. Somewhat less than one-half of the respondents in the December 1968 survey said that their capacity was about adequate, but only 5 percent stated that existing plants and equipment exceeded needs. The chemical industty is one of the largest investors in new facilities, and 58 percent - an unusually low figure - of the chemical manufacturers felt that more ca- 12 pacity was needed. The replies from the petroleum companies indicated that 40 percent required new capacity. High proportions of the food and beverage industry, along with metal fabricators, also responded that more plants and equipment were needed. anticipated investment As mentioned earlier, the anticipated amount of total expenditures for plants and equipment during 1969 is almost 14 percent above the level for last year, when a much smaller increase of 4 percent was recorded. In contrast with the small declines that occurred in 1967 and 1968, investment by manufacturers in the current year is projected to rise 16 percent; durable goods industries anticipate a gain of 15 percent, and nondurable goods industries, an increase of 17 percent. Sales in manufacturing are expected to advance 8 percent this year, with durables and nondurables producers each anticipating that their sales will show about the same percentage gain. Wiili the exception of the steel industrY, which had substantial outlays in the preceding 2 years, virtually all major durable goods industries are planning higher investment outlays this year. The largest percentage increases are expected in motor vehicles and parts, along with the stone, clay, and glass industries, with the latter planning a 42-percent rise in expenditures. Despite the large outlays by the producers of stone, clay, and glass, sales in that industry are expected to advance modestly during 1969. Investment by manufacturers of motor vehicleS and parts is projected to rise 27 percent, aCcording to the survey. Assemblies of passenger cars have been projected at about 9.0 million units, which would be higher than last year. A strong demand for electronic systems because of the Viet-Nam conflict and rising orders for more high-voltage capacity in electrical utilities have intensified the need for new capital goods in electrical machinery. Transportatio~ equipment (other than motor vehicles) anticl- pates higher outlays than last year, with capital investment expected to peak in the aerospace industry. Major firms that will manufacture airbuses and "jumbo" jets expect to spend substantial amounts during the year. Also, construction is going ahead on a new $130 mil lion shipyard at Pascagoula, Mississippi. The current concept for the building of ships is production, rather than construction. Assembly-line , techniques will be utilized; and separate modules, or sections, of ships are to be built on land and later fitted together for launching. Among the nondurable goods, both the textile industry and the paper industry project expenditures at about 35 percent higher for this year - in contrast to 1968, when each eased expenditures. The chemical industry, in which new air and water pollution control devices are PLANT AND EQUIPMENT OUTLAYS BY U.S. BUSINESS In bi ll ions of dollars 19691 Industry ... . 73.0 Al l industries Ma nufacturing ., . .. Durable goods Primary metals . .... Machinery Motor vehicles and parts . Transportation equipment" Stone. clay. and g lass .... Other durab le goods .... Nondurable goods . . , .. . . . Food and beverage . Textile Paper .. .. ... . ..... Chemical . . . . . . Petro leum . . ..... Rubber .............. Other nondurable goods .. Mining , ... , .. , ... , . . Railroad .... iransportation other than rai l . PUb l ic utilities ..... Communication . - , .. , .. , Commercia l and other . .. . , 30.7 15.5 3.2 4 .6 1.9 1.1 1.0 3.7 15.2 1.6 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.5 .7 1.2 1.6 1.7 4.B 13.2 7.4 13.6 196B' 64.1 26.4 13.5 3.3 4.0 1.5 1.0 .7 '3.0 12.9 1.4 .B 1.5 2.7 4.9 .6 1.1 1.4 1.3 4.3 11.5 6.4 12.7 Percent change 14 16 15 -3 14 27 13 42 23 17 16 36 35 17 13 15 5 13 29 12 14 17 7 Anticipated. • Actual. , Exc luding motor vehicles. . NOTE. - Details may not add to totals due to rounding. SOURCES: Securities and Exchange Commission . U.S. Department of Commerce. 1 forming a larger portion of expenditures, will increase investment outlays. Petroleum and rubber companies will undoubtedly experience very noticeable increases in capital goods spending. Last year, the rubber industry showed an advance of 27 percent. Within the petroleum industry, outlays will be for refining, petrochemical, and transportation facilities, with air and water pollution control accounting for a larger portion of expenditures than in the past. Expenditures for crude oil production and for drilling will see little change. Spending by the petroleum industry is significant in the sense that the industry is the largest investor in plants and equipment of any major manufacturing group. Other industries besides manufacturing expect ratller large gains in plant and equipment expenditures. The railroads, with an advance of 29 percent over last year's low level, have indicated by far the largest rise in spending among nonmanufacturing concerns. The rise is expected to occur in equipment, as a small reduction is projected in spending for rails and roadbeds. Deliveries of new freight cars will be up considerably from 1968 but far below the record established in 1966. The full realization of expenditures in 1969 may be contingent upon approval of a railroad freight rate increase by the Interstate Commerce Commission. Besides the railroads, otller forms of transportation are scheduling increases in their investment expenditures, and the transportation group as a whole forecasts that outlays will be 12 percent above last year. The airlines continue to spend large sums on the procurement of new aircraft and parts, and trucking and water transportation companies plan more spending for equipment and facilities. Public utilities expect to spend 14 percent more on new facilities in 1969, following rises of about 17 percent in both of the previous 2 years. Electric utility firms plan to spend a larger proportion of outlays for nuclear plants. bltsiness review/may 1969 13 The mmmg industry, expenditures in which have been relatively stable during the past several years, anticipates an increase this year. Nonferrous metal mining was characterized by labor disputes during the past 2 years, particularly a long copper strike. The "commercial and other" group embraces such diverse activities as trade, service, finance, and construction and normally spends about one-half the amount on new investment that manufacturing industries spend, or around 20 percent of all new plant and equipment expenditures. The group ordinarily experiences fairly steady growth in plant and equipment outlays, but expenditures are projected to show a strong rise during 1969. Economic growth is tied closely to the expansion of productive facilities by business en- terprises. As such, this expansion is one of the factors to be considered in the evaluation of the future course of economic changes. Years of national crises - World War II, the Korean war, and the Viet-Nam war - have seen rapid strides in the installation of new productive facilities to meet the needs of military efforts and, especially in the case of the Viet-Nam war, to allow for higher production of civilian goods. However, the level of business fixed investment, as projected in the current survey, has concerned many analysts because of the inflationary forces presently at work in the economy. With the advent of peace in VietNam, it is hoped that business investment will be high in order to meet the ever-widening needs of the civilian economy. RAYNAL HAMMELTON dist,·ict highlights The seasonally adjusted Texas industrial production index in March, at 169.9 percent of its 1957-59 base, was fractionally above the level in the preceding month. Total manufacturing and mining accounted for the advance, as utilities were unchanged. In manufacturing, a moderate increase in durable goods more than offset a fractional decline in nondurable goods. Two durable goods sectors - electrical machinery and transportation equipment - exhibited notable strength with identical gains of 2.9 percent. Other durable goods sectors showed only slight changes. Among the nondurable goods, a strong gain in petroleum refining and a moderate rise in leather and leather products were more than offset by decreases in the other sectors. The expansion in mining activity was caused by an increase in crude petroleum production. 14 On the basis of the year-to-year comparison, industrial production in the State in March was 4.1 percent higher. Total manufacturing and utilities showed gains tllat exceeded the overall increase in industrial production, but mining output declined nearly 5 percent from a year earlier. In manufacturing, the stone, clay, and glass products sector and the "other nondurable goods" category exhibited the largest gains. A decrease in crude petroleum production accounted for all of the decline in mining output. Nonagricultural wage and salary employment in the five southwestern states rose seasonally to total 6,061,400 persons during March. ManUfacturing employment showed a stronger gain than would be attributable to seasonal inflUences. The less-than-normal increase in non- manufacturing employment was due largely to the contraseasonal decline of employment in the construction industry. In other nonmanufacturing sectors, changes were moderate and were about in line with seasonal trends. On a year-to-year basis, total nonagricultural employment in the five states increased 5.1 percent in March. Both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment posted the same percentage advance. The percentage gains in mining and construction were well above the rise in total employment. million, respectively, compared with gains of , $26 million and $14 million a year ago. Combined registrations of new passenger ~utomobijes in the major metropolitan reportIng areas of Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio during the first 3 months of 1969 Were down 6 percent from the same period in 1968. Dallas was the only center showing an increase. March registrations for the four areas Were 9 percent under those a year ago. On the liability side of the balance sheet, total demand deposits advanced $304 million as gains of $147 million, $89 million, and $61 million were recorded in the deposits of individuals, partnerships, and corporations, deposits of the U.S. Government, and deposits due to other banks, respectively. In the comparable 5 weeks last year, total demand deposits were up $245 million. Department store sales in the Eleventh District during the 4 weeks ended April 26 were 8 percent higher than those during the corresponding period in 1968. Cumulative sales thus far in 1969 were 10 percent above the comparable period last year. During the similar span in 1968, cumulative sales were also 10 percent above the 1967 period. Primarily reflecting seasonal factors, all the major balance sheet items except total time and savings deposits increased at the District's weekly reporting commercial banks in the 5 Weeks ended April 16. Large negotiable certifiCates of deposit continued to decline, but at a reduced pace. Spurred by a $70 million rise in business loans, loans adjusted advanced $108 million. In the corresponding period last year, business loans increased $94 million, accounting for the major portion of the $162 million expansion in ~oans adjusted. Real estate loans and consumer Instalment loans were up $8 million and $13 As a result of the $34 million rise in holdings of municipal securities, total investments increased more than $7 million during the 5week period. This is in contrast to a $20 million decline in total investments a year earlier. U.S. Government security holdings fell $35 million, 50 percent of which was due to a decrease in Treasury bills. However, Treasury notes and bonds maturing in 1 to 5 years were up $3 million. As the only major balance sheet item showing a decline in the 5 weeks ended April 16, total time and savings deposits were held down primarily by the $48 million runoff in large IPC certificates of deposit. "Other" large CD's, however, rose $3 million. !PC savings deposits dropped $16 million, and deposits of states and political subdivisions decreased $14 million. In the year-earlier period, total time and savings deposits increased almost $4 million. Wet fields have delayed planting of crops in many areas of the Southwest, and heavy rainfall and flooding in some sections will necessitate replanting of crops. In other areas, corn and sorghum planting is making good progress. Winter wheat production in the five southwestern states, as of April 1, is placed at about 205 million bushels, or 6 percent smaller than the output in 1968. A substantial year-to-year gain is expected for Arizona, and Oklahoma's crop prospects are virtually unchanged; but business review/ may 1969 15 indications are that production will be smaller in Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas. Prices received by Texas farmers and ranchers for all farm products in the January-March period averaged 4 percent ~bove th~ corresponding quarter of 1968. Pnces for livestock and livestock products showed a 13-percent increase, but crop prices were 6 percent lower. Daily average crude oil production in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas rose 2.7 percent in March, but output in these southwestern states was 3.2 percent below a year earlier. Output in Louisi~a ~howed the most notable month-to-month gam; 1ll contrast, New Mexico showed a slight decrease. For the fifth consecutive month, the oil allowable in Texas will be higher in May and has been set at 53 .8 percent of the Maximum Efficient Rate of production, which is the highest rate since the Middle East crisis during the summer of 1967. The major reason for the latest increase is that crude oil inventories have been below desired levels. The Louisiana oil allowable for May also has been raised, following two previous monthly advances. Allowables in New Mexico and Oklahoma are unchanged for the month. Toward the end of March, Oklahoma's deepest well was completed and has the distinction of being the second deepest producing well in the world. The 24,453-foot depth was reached after 15 months of drilling. The well is located in the deepest part of the Anadarko basin, an area with both oil and gas reserves. The Baytown State Bank, Baytown, Texas, a nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, March 14, 1969. The officers are: C. J. Bailey, Jr., Co-Chairman of the Board; Dr. George L. Walmfley, CoChairman of the Board; B. E. Greer, President; L. R. Whitman, Cashier; and Kenneth Tilton, Vice President (Inactive) . The Missouri City State Bank, Missouri City, Texas, an insured nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Houston Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, April 10, 1969. The officers are: J. G. Waller, Chairman of the Board; Morris 1. Waller, President; and David T. Joyner, Executive Vice President and Cashier. new PUI O bunks The Tensas State Bank, Newellton, Louisiana, an insured nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on April 17, 1969. The officers are: F. R. Burnside, Chairman of the Board; W. E. Hawkins, President; C. D. Doyle, Cashier; W. B. Hudnall, Assistant Cashier; and Mrs. Hilda Bradley, Assistant Cashier. The Pelican State Bank, Pelican, Louisiana, all insured nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on April 22, 1969. The officers are: L. E. Fincher, President; L. M. Webster, Vice President; and F. N. Gallaspy, Cashier. The North Central State Bank, Dallas, Texas, an insured nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, April 22, 1969. The officers are: J. Alex Blakeley, Chairman of the Board; Thomas G. White, President; Roscoe L. Eoff, Vice President and Cashier; and O. C. Bevill, Assistant Cashier. 16 - STATISTICAL SUPPLEMENT to the BUSINESS REVIEW May 1969 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DAllAS CONDITION STATISTICS OF WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS RESERVE POSITIONS OF MEMBER BANKS E)eventh Federal Reserve District Eleventh Federal Reserve District (Averages of daily flgures. In thousands of dollars) (In thousands of dolla rs ) Item Apr.30, 1969 Mar. 26, 1969 May 1, 1968 4 weeks ended Apr. 2, 1969 Item RESERVE CITY BANKS ASSETS Total reserves held •• . ......... Net loans and discounts . . ... ..........•....... Valuation reserves . ........ .......•........ . . Gross loan s and disco unts .. ... .•.............. 6,269,161 119,415 6,388,576 6,307,405 119,311 6,426,716 5,496,772 107,65 9 5,604,431 Currency and coin ...••...... Re quired reserves .•...••...... Exc ess reserves • ... . . . .... • . .. Borrowing s.... ..... .•... ..... Free reserves •.........••..... Co mmercial and ind ustria l loans •............. Agricultural loans, excluding CCC certificates of interest •••...... . .. .... . .. . 3,117,771 3,070,509 2,684,231 110,766 105,871 100,662 28,1 76 60,401 1,001 74,966 25,086 20,512 339 392,832 400 412,113 335 338,184 With Fe deral Reserve 8ank .... Loans to brokers and dealers for pu rchasing or carrying: U.S. Government securities ................ Other securities ....... . ............... . . Other loans for purcha sing or carrying: U.S. Government securities • ......... . ..... Other securities .. ............... .. . . . .. . loans to nonbank Anancial institutions: Soles Anonce, persona l Anance, factors, and other business credit compani es ....... COUNTRY BANKS Total rese rve s held . . .... ... .. . With Federal Reserve Bonk . ... Currency and coin ........... Require d reserves ....... •. .. .. Excess reserves . . .•.. .... .•. . • Borrowing s...•.........••.... Free reserves •................ ALL MEMBER BANKS Total res erves held . • ...•.... . . With Federal Reserve Bank • •.. 148,320 391,417 623,396 129,732 6,621 661,359 130,589 413,447 616,372 256,761 7,637 647,046 135,253 286,854 544,906 269,470 5,195 569,975 Other loan . ...... . ..... . ................. 0 717,446 0 690,004 2,754,561 2,716,523 1,057,422 71,582 0 1,079,412 86,641 0 1,148,705 46,767 0 118,950 669,636 197,254 123,576 667,969 201,226 233,366 619,774 248,798 64,099 1,385,434 33,701 1,352,509 15,947 1,134,785 144,183 103,423 1,252,329 768,242 81,034 485,789 5,233 396,044 154,482 96,419 986,554 793,240 84,560 472,982 6,250 377,784 107,273 77,893 980,210 679,243 78,323 416,763 4,978 370,116 TOTAL ASSETS ....................... . . 12,012,393 11,745,298 10,5 11 ,008 738,083 687,347 50,736 743,829 - 5,746 43,800 -49,546 741,387 689,590 51,797 740,265 1,122 45,414 -44,292 699,388 651,800 47,588 692,992 6,396 3,743 2,653 758,203 583,037 175,166 731,720 26,483 13,078 13,405 766,901 591,715 175,186 736,284 30,617 10,534 20,083 700,282 536,850 163,432 665,286 34,996 5,061 29,935 1,496,286 1,270,384 225,902 1,475,549 20,737 56,878 -36,141 1,508,288 1,281,305 226,983 1,476,549 31,739 55,948 -24,209 1,399,670 1,188,650 211,020 1,358,278 4 1,392 8,804 32,588 2,484,603 Total U.S. Government se curities •••....•..••.• 4 weeks ended Apr. 3, 1968 0 623,768 Total investments •..•••...............••..•.. Curre ncy and coin ... . . ..••.. Require d reserves .... . ...... .. Exc ess reserves ..••..•. . ...•.. Borrowing s. ......•........... Free rese rve s......•.......... 4 weeks ended Mar.5,1969 Other •••.•••••.•••.••••••.••.••.•••••. Rea l estate loan s•.....••.•.........•...... loan s to domestic commercial banks • .. . ....... loons to foreign banks ................•..•. Consumer instalm ent loon s•••••..••....•..... loons to foreig n governments, ofAcial institutions, central bonks, international institution s••••••••••..••.•.•••.••••.•••• Trea.ury bill ••• ••• •••• ••• •• ••• • .••.•.••• Treasury certiAcates of indebtedness .••••••• Treasury notes and U.S. Government bonds maturing: Within 1 year .• •. ........••..• ••••.•• 1 year to 5 ye ars .•.. ••.•••• ••.•. •.. .. After 5 years ••• •••••••••• • •• ••••••••• Obligation s of states and political subdivisions: Ta x warrants and short·term notes and bill s •• All other ............................... Oth er bonds, corporat e stocks, and securities: Participation certiAcotes in Federal ag ency loon s...............•......... All other (incl ud ing corporate . tocks) ••.•. ••. Cash items in proc ess of collection . ••• ••• • •.••.• Reserves with Federal Reserve Bonk ............. Currency and coin .••.•...•.•••.••.••.•.••••• Balances with banks in the Unite d States .•••••••. Balances with bonks in foreign countries ••• •..... Other assets •••....•............ . ....••..... CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DAllAS (In thousands of dollars ) April 30, 1969 Item Total gold certiAcate reserves••••.•• •• .. .•• . Discounts for member banks . ••••••••.•..•.. Other di scounts and advances •••• •••• ...• • . U.S. Government securities . ••• . •.•• . ...••.. Total earning a ssots ........ ....•••. . ...• .. Member bonk re se rve doposits• •••. ... . . .... Federal Rese rve notes in actual circulation ••••. March 26, 1969 279,326 122,172 379,795 95,096 2,214,592 2,336,764 1,271,674 1,536,775 2,111,555 2,206,651 1,274,108 1,5 17,219 o o May 1, 1968 216,807 48,179 855 2,132,504 2,181,538 1,125,876 1,418,606 CONDITION STATISTICS OF All MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District LIABILITIES Total deposits .............................. Total demand deposits , ••.•••••••••••••.••• Individuals, partn ership s, and corporations •• • • States and political sub division s ...•..•... •. U.S . Government •......... •••••.•••.•.•• Banks in the United States ................. Foreign: Governments, ofAcial institutions, central banks, in ternational institutions ..... .. .• Commercial banks ........••........•.• CertiAed and ofAcers' checks, etc ......... .. Total tim e and savings d e po sits ••...........• Indivi dual s, partn erships, and corporation s: Savings deposits ... ..•..•• .. .. ........ Oth er time deposits ••.... ....... .•. . ... States and politic al sub divi sions .. .• ..... .. . U.S . Government (including postal savings) ••• Banks in the Unite d States ••••••• ••••. • •• , . Foreign: Gov ernments, officiol institutions, central bonks, international institutions .•.... •• . Comm ercial banks .. ...... • .....•... . .. Bills ba ya bl e, re discounts, and other 110 illties for borrowe d money • ..•... ...... •• (In millions of dollars) 9,742,404 9,578,402 8,913,439 5,355,810 3,599,744 369,679 179,805 1,083,583 5,957,042 3,985,348 364,737 298,162 1,180,165 5,729,107 3,974,620 304,388 163,210 1,180,314 4,204 25,318 99,108 3,785,362 3,672 24,029 78,874 3,849,295 3,055 24,002 95,942 3,557,629 993,021 2,006,770 737,729 11,446 28,906 1,015,121 2,038,785 749,286 10,983 27,530 1,077,874 1,842,881 599,322 7,655 24,397 feb. 26, 1969 Other securities ..............••.......• Rese rves with Federal Reserve Bonk ...... • . Cash in vau lt • • .. •••. • •••. ....••.... •. . Balanc es with banks In th e United States. . .. Balances with bonks in foreign countries e .... Co sh ite ms in proce ss of colloction ........• Other o ssetse •••..•.... ................ 11,054 2,403 3,237 1,274 255 1,184 9 1,115 698 11,027 2,466 3,141 1,236 258 1,155 7 1,129 616 9,502 2,562 2,704 1,216 240 1,125 7 1,001 462 TOTAL ASSETse ••••••••• •• ..•••..•.. 21,229 21,035 18,819 1,484 8,770 7,732 1,408 8,778 7,730 1,369 8,148 6,966 Borrowings •....... ..... •..• ..... ...... Oth er liabilities o ......... ....... . .. .... Total capital account so • •..• . ... ... . .. . . • 17,986 980 591 1,672 17,916 885 568 1,666 16,483 433 339 1,564 TOTAL L1A8ILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTSe .•••.••..•••.•.•..•••. 21,229 21,035 18,819 Item ASSETS loons and discounts••........•......•... U.S. Government obligations •••.. • •••..••• LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCO UNTS Demand deposi ts of banks •.••.• • ••.•••.. Other de mand deposits • • • .•.. " .••••..•• Time deposits ••• •.... . .. ....• • .•.... •.. 7,000 490 7,100 490 5,300 200 Other 1I0bllities •• •••••.• •.••• • ..•• • ••••••••• 1,047,908 268,280 957,705 264,170 460,253 230,971 CAPITAL ACCOUNTS ••.•.••••.••.•.•..•••... 953,801 945,021 906,345 TOTAL LIABILITI ES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS 12,0 12,393 11,745,298 Totol deposits ••••..••..••••.••.•••.• 10,5 11,008 e - 2 -::;:. Mar. 27, 1968 Mar. 26, 1969 Estimated . .- BANK DEBITS, END-OF-MQNTH DEPOSITS, AND DEPOSIT TURNOVER (Dollar amounts in thousands, seasonally adiusted ) ~ =================================================================== DE81TS TO DEMAND DEPOSIT ACCOUNTS' DEMAND DEPOSITS' Percent change - Standard met ropolitan stati stical are a Annual rate of turnover March 1969 from March 1969 {Annual-rat e ba.I., Fe bruary 1969 March 1968 3 months, 1969 from 1968 1 7 9 14 14 10 17 12 4 56 4 7 4 -2 35 16 10 2 17 20 12 15 18 19 14 8 11 15 14 12 13 21 Sherman· De nison •• • •• •• ••••• • ••••••••••••••• • Texarkana (Texa s- Arkansas) •.. ... .. •. .. .... . .. . Tyler •••.••••.••••.••••••••.•••••• • •••••..• • Waco ........ . ... . .... . ... . ...... .... ...... Wichita Falls •• •. .•••••••••••••.••• ••••• ••••• 4,974,444 2,583,396 7,456,128 787,296 1,976,748 4,978,428 8,696,052 5,691,384 1,580,71 2 4,307,244 410,136 108,502,224 6,211,704 19,241,448 2,484,780 88,206,300 833,748 4,051,224 1,540,824 2,017,920 1,483,728 1,214,808 15,543,396 997,056 1,579,200 1,957,380 2,541,024 2,156,916 0 -4 2 1 2 -9 7 10 3 2 -3 6 4 12 2 5 7 11 6 8 5 5 -3 -4 20 24 19 27 12 7 76 3 12 1 -8 39 15 9 -5 17 23 16 15 25 24 24 15 13 20 13 11 11 Total_28 centers ••••. •• •.•••••••. • ....••••.•••..••• $304,005,648 0 23 ARIZONA: Tucson ..•.• . •••.•••• .• •...•.•••••... . ••.• LOUISIANA: Monroe .. ...................... .. .. .. .. $ Shrev eport .••................ . . . .. ••.. . NEW MEXICO: Ro.well ' ....... ..... ..... _........... TEXAS: Abilene •.••..••.. •••••••.•....•••...• •. .••.. Amarillo .•••.•••..•••..•••••••..••.•••..••.• Austin ...................................... Beaumont·Port Arthur· Orang e ....... ... . . .. . . . . Brownsvill e· Harling en·S an Benito ... • ... .• ••.... . Corpus Christi . .. •................... . . ..... .. Corsicana 2 ••• ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Dallas •••...••..••• • ••• •• ••••.•••.••..••..• • EI Paso .................... . ....... . ........ Fort Worth .................................. Galveston-Texas City .•...................... , Houston ••••.•..•... • ••.•••.. • ••.•••..•••• •• Lare do ...•.•.••••.. •• ...• • . •. ••• .•. .. •••.. • LUbbock ••••...••.••••.•••••.••..•••.••••..• McAlien-Pharr-Edinburg ............. . ...... . . .. Midland .•••.. • ••. •• ..• •.. .•••.• •••.••.. ••. . Odessa ••••.••..•••.••••..••..•••••••.••.•.. San Ang elo ••••. •• • ••••••••••• •• •••••••.• •.• San Antonio .••..•••.•••••.• •.• ••.••.. .. •.• .. -- March 31, 1969 March 1969 February 1969 March 1968 $ 215,960 79,813 228,611 35,884 99,608 148,133 281,689 233,864 72,096 205,780 31,985 2,184,756 216,383 636,804 99,178 2,369,572 38,189 146,617 89,032 130,645 77,843 64,933 595,788 59,952 70,965 94,958 118,129 114,980 23.3 31.6 32.7 22.9 20.1 33.6 31.7 24.6 21.9 21.1 12.8 50.6 29.0 30.8 24.3 36.6 21.6 27.2 17.2 15.5 19.2 18.6 25.5 16.8 22.1 21.0 22.4 18.4 23.4 27.9 29.5 23.6 20.0 35.2 30.5 24.5 21.9 23.7 12.4 47.2 28.1 31.3 23.9 35.2 20.6 24.5 17.0 14.8 18.4 17.0 24.1 15.0 21.8 20.5 23.6 19.2 23.9 27.2 28.0 19.5 19.0 35.1 21.3 24.7 18.7 22.0 15.9 42.0 26.8 32.1 27.0 35.2 20.0 24.4 16.4 13.0 18.4 16.0 24.3 16.5 20.7 20.4 20.3 17.0 34.8 33.3 31.5 ---$8,742,147 .~ Doposit s of individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions . .. COunty basis . GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS Eleventh Federal Reserve District BUILDING PERMITS (Averages of dolly flgures. In millions of dollars) VALUATION {Dollar amounts in thousand., """=- TIME DEPOSITS GROSS DEMAND DEPOSITS Reserve city banks Total ----!ate 1967. March ..... I . 968: March •• • •• October • •• November .. 19 Docemb er .. 69, Januory ••• Fobruary ... March •••.• -- Country bank. 4,106 4,388 4,751 4,776 5,007 4,935 4,734 4,781 4,845 5,122 5,450 5,589 5,675 5,817 5,594 5,487 8,951 9,510 10,201 10,365 10,682 10,752 10,328 10,268 Percent change Total Reserve city banks Country banks 6,183 6,935 7;394 7,498 7,598 7,627 7,707 7,722 2,738 2,863 3,116 3,145 3,185 3,135 3,091 3,042 3,445 4,072 4,278 4,353 4,413 4,492 4,616 4,680 WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION (In thousonds of bu . hels) ""'== 1969, indicated April 1 1968 1967 le)t~s~~Q.·,: : : ::: : : ::: : :::: : Okl h e.lco .............. ... 3,420 1,665 4,032 121,877 74,232 2,704 2,112 7,625 122,383 84,150 2,450 2,600 3,948 88,689 53,216 Total --:.,............ .. ...... 205,226 218,974 150,903 --Aritollo lou" Area •.•• ..•..••.••..• •. • Ne:IMO ................... March 1969 from NUMBER Area March 1969 ARIZONA Tucson . ..... .. 615 LOUISIANA Monroe-West Monroe . . •.. 67 428 Shreveport ••.• TEXAS Abilene ••• • •.• 34 Amarillo ...... 113 Austin ........ 426 Beaumont ..... 126 8rownsvllle • ••• 47 Corpus Christi.. 264 Dalla ......... 2,061 Denison .... . . . 31 EI Paso ••. •••. 465 Fort Warth ••.• 524 Galveston .. . . . 84 Houston ... ... 3,289 Lare do .•••••• 33 111 Lubbock ••• ••• Midland ...•. • 42 Od essa ....... 62 Port Arthur ••• • 90 45 San Ang elo ••• San Antonio. , . 1,115 Sherman ...... 84 Texarkana .. ' . 30 Waco ........ 247 Wichita Fall • •• 74 Total-26 cities • • 10,507 March 1969 3 mos. 1969 1,617 $ 3,038 192 1,198 702 4,902 107 434 1,261 311 158 885 5,535 95 1,276 1,450 262 7,856 107 352 187 160 204 159 2,979 189 81 643 217 2,972 921 17,276 972 627 3,501 24,400 413 5,891 6,892 5,002 41,591 149 5,490 381 2,604 2,422 227 7,924 764 1,556 1,963 534 27,915 $143,114 3 mos. 1969 3 month., 1969 from 1968 Mar. 1968 7,913 -12 68 43 3,463 11,480 -60 18 -58 99 - 19 88 4,381 162 248 4,964 -41 -58 42,525 14 107 3,084 -8 -21 3,902 108 87 6,320 161 74 74,367 11 18 1,513 -36 8 25,112 -56 7 26,293 3 19 5,921 840 305 122,681 5 13 1,193 -81 6 10,383 69 265 1,331 -23 -71 4,272 100 281 3,012 1,037 692 1,281 -64 -62 24,539 24 -10 1,753 14 128 2,040 323 855 19 5,132 -1 4,834 -76 -23 $ Feb. 1969 192 -20 48 -24 225 -44 36 145 18 44 150 7 170 102 -53 170 274 -34 -40 98 68 3 158 33 18 $403,689 9 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Agrlculturo. 3 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS DAILY AVERAGE PRODUCTION OF CRUDE OIL (In millions of dollars) (In thousands of barrels) January-March March 1969 Area and type February 1969 January 1969 1969 Percent change from_ March 1969 1968r Area FIVE SOUTHWESTERN STATES' ••••••.•.•••...• Residential building ... •.•• Nonresidential building . ... Nonbuilding construction . •• UNITED STATES • • ••••..•..• Re sidential building •.••• .. Nonresidential building . ... Nonbuilding construction ... 1 517 233 148 136 5,003 1,957 1,772 1,274 588 237 164 187 4,766 1,746 2,145 875 568 220 214 135 4,802 1,820 1,885 1,097 1,667 687 525 456 14,510 5,505 5,767 3,238 1,406 640 418 348 12,784 5,161 4,417 3,205 Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. r - Revised. NOTE. - Details may not add to totals because of rounding. SOURCE, F. W. Dodge, McGraw·Hill, Inc. I FOUR SOUTHWESTERN STATES ................. Louisiana . ••••.••••••••• New Mexico ..... . . .. .... Oklahoma . . ............ Texas ............. . ... . Gulf Coast ............ West Texas ........... East Texas (proper) .•... Panhandle .......•... . Rest of State • •.. ...•.. UNITED STATES ......... . .. February 6,312.7 2,279.1 353.1 625.6 3,054.9 592.2 1,426.1 126.0 95.2 815.4 9,430.2 1969 March 1968 February 1969 March 1968 6,147.0 2,183.0 356.0 614.0 2,994.0 584.8 1,413.7 134.8 90.0 770.7 8,960.0 6,519.4 2,274.9 353.1 625.0 3,266.4 656.4 1,517.2 159.1 94.2 839.5 9,316.8 2.7 4.4 - .8 1.9 2.0 1.3 .9 -6.5 5.8 5.8 5.2 -3.2 .2 .0 .1 _6.5 -9.8 -6.0 -20.8 1.1 _2.9 1.2 SOURCES, American Petroleum Institute. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Five Southwestern States' (Seasonally adiusted indexes, 1957·59 Percent change Mar. 1969 from Number of persons Type of employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary workers •• Manufacturing . ••.....•.. Nonmanufacturing . •...... Mining ... ............ Construction . • . •...... . Transportation and public utilities ••.••••• Trade ••.•..•... ..•••• finance .••. ... •....... Service •..••..• • .....• Government • .•..••..•. March 1969p February 1969 March 1968r Feb. 1969 Mar. 1968 6,061,400 1,131,400 4,930,000 230,600 388,300 6,032,400 1,121,300 4,911,100 231,300 389,200 5,766,700 1,076,500 4,690,200 215,300 360,200 0.5 .9 .4 - .3 -.2 442,100 1,356,400 296,200 927,900 1,268,000 432,100 1,303,600 282,900 883,600 1,212,500 -.2 .8 .5 .6 .3 2.1 4.8 5.2 5.7 4.9 March 1968r 5.1 5.1 5.1 7.1 7.8 441,300 1,366,700 297,600 933,600 1,271,900 Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas . Preliminary. r - Revised. SOURCE, State employment agencies. 1 p - ----------~~------------------------------------------163.3 181 .9 197.1 171.8 126.5 215.6 163.0 164.6 168.2 160.0 126.2 198.0 -----------------------------------------------------------Preliminary, p - r - Revised. SOURCES, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ~ Dalla l Head Olflce Territory IIJII]] HOU l ton Branch 1er,1I0,y 1 ;:;:;:;:;:1Son Antonio Branch Terrllory ~ EI Paso Branch Terrllory 4 = 100) ==========================~===============================~=~