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MONTHLY B ,USINESS REVIEW o f the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK D allas, T exas, May 1, 1944 Volume 29, No. 3 DISTRICT SUMMARY Sales at department stores in the Eleventh District, which rose sharply in February, increased further in March, and were about one-third higher than in March last year. Despite the h~avy sales during February and March, the value of merchandise stocks at reporting stores in this dist rict has increased moderately and at the end of March was substantially higher ~han a year earlier. The fairly even trend of industrial activity I~ this district which has prevailed since N ovember 1943, continued during March. Delays in spring planting which have ?ccurred in most sections of this district may result in the seedlUg of a smaller acreage of many crops than was indicated earlier. The indicated total planted acreage is larger, however, than the ten-year (1933-1942) average. Ranges and pastures are in generally good condition and livestock are making favorable progress. o f Dallas T his copy is released lor pub . lication in morning papers May 3 that they represented 20 per cent of total sales in March 1944 and 17 per cent of total sales a year earlier. Throughou~ 1943 ~nd the first part of 1944 the gap between an increasing trend 111 sales and a decreasing trend in inventories has become progressively larger, reflecting an increasing need of stocks to ~upply the de~and. Although the dollar volume of sales has 111creased conSiderably, the increase in the physical volume of ~ales has been. much .smaller. Many consumers who have greatly mcre.ased their earrungs are buymg a more expensive type of f urUiture than was bought before the war. Some furniture dealers report that the stocks situation is critical even after some Government restrictions have been modified or lifted. T he shortag~ of manp~wer and the lack of specific materials, such as furUiture covenngs, have restricted the volume of output by manufacturers. Some factories have concentrated on a f ew selected styles of furniture instead of the many styles manufactured formerly; in this way, the la·bor turnover has had much less effect on production. . BUSINESS Department store sales in this district which rose considerably from January to February continued to expand during March. The increase in March contrasts with the sharp decline in sales which occurred in March 1943, following the heavy volume of SCare buying in February of that year. In consequence, sales of reporting firms were 34 per cent larger than in the corresponding period of 1943. The two principal factors accounting ~or the increase in sales during March were (1) the heavy buyIIlg of luxury goods on which new or higher excise taxes became effective on April 1, and (2 ) the large scale buying of apparel and other items which are usually purchased prior to Easter, which came two weeks earlier this year than in 1943. This bank's adjusted index of department store sales, which makes allowance for seasonal factors and the variable date of Easter, rose to 247 per cent of the 1935-1939 average in March as C ompared with 241 per cent in February, and 185 per cent in March last year. Sales during the first quarter of 1944 were 16 per cent above sales during the first quarter of 1943, reflecting a Continuation of the sharply rising trend that has been in evidence in this district since the beginning of 1942. Sales at weekly reporting stores during the first two weeks of April were 18 per cent larger than sales during the corresponding period last year. . During March, sales of merchandise subject to the new or h.lgher excise taxes increased tremendously. The greatest relative increase occurred in the sales of furs with March sales up 5 per cent over February and 217 per cent above those in the corresponding month last year, while sales of jewelry in March Were 45 per cent greater than those in February and 155 per cent above sales in March last year. Sales of toilet articles and drugs increased 61 per cent from February to March and were 105 per cent above sales in the corresponding month last year. AGRICULTURE He~vy early. spring rains have delayed soil preparation and ~lantlUg operatIOns and cool weather has retarded seed germination through~ut most of the Eleventh District. The rapid drying out .of topSOIl caused by high winds in late March and early Apnl has enabled! farmers to proceed with field work in many sections of this district but has tended to harden the soil a d to make field work difficult in some sections, particularly the bl.ack land belt . .The soggy condition of fields was still ~etardm~ farm work m eastern and southern counties of Texas m the nuddle of April. The delay in spring planting and shortage of farm labor m:y result in the seeding of a smaller acreage than was requested m the farm goals set for this year. Texas fa rmers .indicated on March 1 that the total acreage to be planted! m the State would be only fractionally larger than last yea~, although considerably larger than the 1933-1942 average. I~dlcated acreages for all major crops except sorghums and nce are below the acreage goals set in January. The indicated net in~rease f~om last year in feed crops to be planted is quite small m relatIOn to the larger number of livestock on farms T he acreage in oats and sorghums is expected to be larger tha~ in 1943, whereas plantings of corn, barley and tame hay will probably be smaller. The acreages in peanuts and potatoes are also expected to be smaller than in 1943. in The exc,;llent ~ub~oil D?-0is:ur~ condition created by above normal sprmg rams m this dlstnct has stimulated growth of range feeds, pastures and small grains. Prospects for the Texas wheat cro~, most of which w~s seeded late after an exceptionally dr~ fall, Improved substantially during March. The April 1 estimate of the Texas wheat crop was increased to 39 338 000 bus~~ls, which is 8 ~er cent larger than the 1943 c;op. 'The Merchandise stocks at reporting stores increased less than antiCipated per acre yield of 8.5 bushels is above the 1933-1942 Usual at this season, but at the end of March were 17 per cent average but 17 per cent below the average yield of last year. Frosts and cool weather during March retarded the progress of larger than on the corresponding date in 1943. t ruck crops in most sections of T exas and rains delayed planting Dollar volume of sales in March at reporting furniture of onions and tomatoes in north Texas. Hardy vegetables, such stores in this district were up 4 per cent over a year ago, whereas as beets, carrots and cabbage, continued to make good progress. stocks at the end of the month were 19 per cent lower. Cash sales continued to rise in relative importance to total sales in D amage to deciduous fruit from late March freezes was severe This publication was digitized and made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Historical Library (FedHistory@dal.frb.org) MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 2 in west and north Texas, but the average condition of peaches in the State on April 1, although below normal, was much better than at the same time in 1943. Ranges throughout this district improved during March and on April 1 were in generally good condition. The condition of ranges in T exas was more favorable than on the same date last year and 6 points higher than the 20-year average for April 1. New range and pasture growth is providing excellent feed in all parts of Texas except in some northwestern and western sections, but growth of range feeds has been retarded throughout most of Arizona and N ew Mexico by the depletion of surface moisture caused by high winds. The improvement in range feeds seems to be influencing f armers and ranchmen in this district to hold a larger percentage of their cattle than is customary at this season. Despite the presence of a near record number of cattle on farms on January 1, receipts of cattle at the principal Texas markets during the first quarter of 1944 were smaller than during the same period in the preceding two years, and movement of cattle to feeding areas was much smaller than during the same period in 1943. Early lambs in this district have made progress because of favorable weather and good range feed conditions. Shearing has been started, but has been delayed by the shortage of labor, and heavy marketings of shorn lambs in Texas will probably not occur until May and June. Preliminary estimates of the mohair clip in Texas, which is almost finished, indicate a slight decline in mohair production from last year. FARM CASH INCOME Increased output of farm products and higher agricultural prices have resulted in a marked rise in farm cash income in Texas and in the nation as a whole since the beginning of the war. The accompanying chart illustrates the rapid rise in farm cash income in Texas to an all-time peak of $1,213,000,000 in 1943, which is more than twice as large as the 1940 farm cash income of the State and 70 per cent above the 1925-1929 average. Although farm production costs have also increased considerably, resulting from an estimated rise in average prices of commodities purchased by farmers of slightly more than 30 per cent and: from a 125 per cent increase in farm wage rates between 1940 and 1943, net farm cash income in the State has apparently increased substantially. The improved cash position of farmers has contributed to a liquidation of farm debt, a rise in land values and an increase in farm sales, particularly for cash, a rise in bank deposits in agricultural areas, and a general increase in rural retail sales. <IN MIUtONS OF DOLL.ARS) 2000,--------------------------,2000 ~ ••• GOVERNt.lENT PAYMENTS LIVESTOCK CROPS 1~0~----------------------_11000 10001------------------".,.,.,-l:~---l1000 1--...,...jOOO ,.., 0'" ..., It" The rising trend of farm cash income in Texas continued into 1944. Total farm cash income for January 1944 declined less than seasonally from December and was 14 per cent larger than in January 1943. Income from crops, which was 30 Pier cent higher than in January 1943, accounted for the increase. Farrn cash income from livestock and livestock products was almost 10 per cent smaller than in January of last year, reflecting chiefly the lower average livestock prices received by farmers. CASH FARM INCOMg (Millions of dollars) Toxas Five states- 1940 1041 1042 1043 1940 1943 1042 1041 OOS.1 770.2 506.0 2,113.6 1,767.7 1,32G.l 1,045.6 Total farm income . , .. 1,213.2 460.0 882.7 268.1 1,007.1 854.B Crops.. .. .. .. .. . .. 5B4,0 649.0 462.5 Livestook and live· 440.4 463.0 323.0 247.3 1,015.1 B10.B 567.7 stock produots ... 574.0 Government pay· 54.3 60.2 63.6 86.5 91.4 108.5 142.7 102.1 ments .. .. , .. . ... Prineipnl crops: 214,0 220.4 130.0 427.4 356.4 310.5 Cotton ... " . "" . . 275.B 228,B 3!.1 45.6 47.0 42.0 21.1 Cottonseed . , . . , , .. 73.B 71.0 62.6 80.0 74.1 67.5 30.1 97,6 33.1 141.6 104.1 Food graiust .. , , , . . 52.1 45,4 22,5 40.4 20.0 102.0 62.6 75.7 Wheat .. , .... ,' , 30.2 40.5 27.0 22.2 15,8 53,3 30,6 69.8 Feed erops~, ... . , .. 10,0 10,1 12.5 7,5 10.0 17.2 13.4 U Corn .. .. . . .. " . . 7,0 24,0 21.0 6,1 Oil bearing crops· .. 5.4 34.4 31.7 B.7 6.G 21.2 23.2 6.0 Peanuts . . , .. , , , . 5.1 30.0 2B.6 7.7 51.1 44,5 60.8 32.0 20.4 143.7 8B,1 58.6 All vegetablesG • • • , , 4.1 5,4 6,7 5,B 3.B 15,0 9.2 Irish potatoes. , . . 1.8 41.4 65.6 . 35,3 25.0 25.4 120.5 67.4 46.0 Truok crops .. .. . 17.G 31.4 24.1 13.6 B.O 47,5 22.0 Fruits .. .... . , . ... , 41.1 0,1 28.6 21.1 10.B 6.5 84.6 27.1 13.6 Citrus fruits . . . , . -Arizona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma nnd Texas. tIneludcs wheat, rye rice nnd buokwheat. t[ncludes corn, oats, barley, groin ,orghums nnd hny. ·Inoludes Baxseed, pen nu,t and soybeans. °Includes truek crops, potatoes, sweet potatoes, dry edible benns and dry fie 3 pens. SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. FINANCE CASH FARM INCOME IN ,TEXAS "" No marked change in the relative importance of the sources of farm cash income in the State has occurred since 1940. Continuing the trend which began after the last war, the portion of Texas farm cash income derived from livestock increased frol11 41 per cent in 1940 to 47 per cent in 1943. Government payments declined in importance, representing only 5 per cent of the total in 1943 as compared with '14 per cent in 1940. The relative importance of the principal field crops as a source of cash income in the State has changed very little since 1940 but as is indicated in the accompanying table, the amount of cash income from truck crops, citrus fruit and peanuts increased markedly and accounted for a slightly greater percentage of total cash income in 1943 than in 1940. ... , The reserve balances of member banks in this district declined considerably dUring the last half of March when the Treasury made heavy withdrawals from war loan accounts at depository banks and when settlement was made for checks drawn on cornmercial banks for the payment of income taxes. In the firs~ half of April, however, reserve balances rose substantially and averaged $520,000,000, or approximately the same as that in the first half of each of the preceding two months. In the last half of March when reserve balances declined and required reserves increased, excess reserves of member banks declined to $95,900,000, or to the lowest level reached for any reporting period during the current year, and were nearly $30,000,000 lower than during the corresponding period last year. The MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW average balances carried by member banks with correspondents declined to $558,000,000 during the last half of March, which Was the lowest since September 1942. The circulation of Federal Reserve notes of this bank, which declined considerably during the third week of March largely as a result of the return of currency used in paying income taxes, expanded sharply over the month-end andi reached an a11time peak of $434,000,000 on April 4. At the middle of April, Federal Reserve note circulation amounted to $432,000,000, or $5,500,000 higher than at the middle of March and $15,000,000 above the amount at the beginning of the year. The net increase in circulation between March 15 and April 15 this year, however, was smaller than that which occurred in the corresponding period of last year. The deposits of weekly reporting member banks in this district showed a further decline of $22,600,000 between March 15 and April 12. The decline was due to the net withdrawal of approximately $39,000,000 of Government and interbank deposits which was only partially counterbalanced by a rise of $16,400,000 in adjusted demand and time deposits. The funds to meet the withdrawals were provided largely by a decline of $4,600,000 in loans and a reduction of $16,400,000 in investments. Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans, which ordinarily decline during the first half of the year, have shown an upwardl trend this year and at the middle of April were $5,600,000 higher than four weeks earlier and approximately $26,000,000 greater than those on the corresponding date last year. On the other hand, loans to brokers and dealers in securities and other loans for security trading, which had risen considerably during the Fourth War Loan Drive showed a further decline of $8,900,000 during the four weeks ended April 12. "All other" loans, which includes personal and instalment loans, declined $2,200,000 during the four weeks. The net decline in investments was due largely to the reduction in holdings of Treasury bills and certificates of indebtedness. During the fourWeek period, these banks made net withdrawals of $5,200,000 from their balances with correspondents and added $4,800,000 to their reserves with the Federal Reserve bank. INDUSTRY During the first quarter of 1944, construction activity in the Eleventh District continued approximately at the level to which it declined in the last six months of 1943. The value of award~ during the first three months of this year, which totaled $47,000,000, was 72 per cent smaller than during the same period in 1943 and only slightly larger than during comparable periods in 1939 and 1940. The acute shortage of lumber for civilian Use resulting from the heavy consumption by the armed services and the shortage of labor at sawmills, apparently continues to deter construction in this area. Available data as to production of lumber in the Southwest indicate that the declining trend in production which began early in 1943 has continued into 1944. Although shipments of lumber from pine mills have likewise declined, they have been large relative to current production 3 CONDITION OF THE FEDE RAL RESERVE BANK (Thousand. of dollars) April 15. April 15. 1041 1943 Totnl oash rosorves . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . ..•. . .. ... . 5547.389 $608,041 Discounts for momher banks.. . . .. .. . . . .. . . • . . . . .. . None 125 Industrial ndvanoes . . . .... .. . . ... . ... . ... .. ... .. .. 3 20 46~1 0 0n7o 205,2 2° Uni tod Stntes Government seouritins. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. All other investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . N 30 Totnl earnin Gnssets........ . ..... .. ..... . .... ... . 461,000 205,404 526,389 506,928 Membcr bank reservo deposits . . .......... . ..... . . . Fedor.l Reservo Notes in aotu. l circulation.. ...... . . 431,884 280,797 Maroh 15. 1944 $557.300 2,422 12 43N'032n4 O o 432,758 527,704 420,240 CONDITION STATISTICS OF 33 MEMBER BANKS IN LEADING CITIES (Thousands of dollars) A~~lr' M~rO;415, $1,047,257 284,354 206,504 1,648 14,744 18,074 154 42,570 762.003 107,215 130,031 100,206 311,328 49,028 58,105 200,713 286,054 045,709 130,1 08 40,027 $1,403,029 337,808 220,846 5,270 38,488 18,971 100 48,208 1,005, 131 98,072 267,042 100,404 421,183 40,435 47,005 208,078 207,225 1,043,170 170,705 208,068 A%iU2, Totnllonns .nd investments . . .. . . .. . ... . ..... . ... . $1,382,028 Total loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . 33a,205 Commoroial, industri.l, and . j!rioultur. llo. n. . .... . 232,453 Lonns to brokor. and dealers In seourities. .. .. . . . . . 2.477 Oth~r loans for purohasing or carrying seourities.. .. 32,404 Rcal estate 10Ilns .. . .... . ...... . . ....... . . . . . .. . 10,825 Loans to bank.. . .. . .. . . . . ..... .. . ... ... . . ...... 101 All other loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,035 Total investments .. . .... . . . .. . .. .... .. ....... . .. 1,048,733 U. S. Treasury bills.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 02,083 U. S. Treasury certificate. of indebtedness ......... 258,887 U. S. Trell9ury notrs... . .... . . .. . .. ........ . .... 105,805 U. S. Government bonds . . ... ... .... .. . . . . ...... 413,018 Ohligations guaranteed by United St.tes Gov't . ... . 30,406 Other seeuritirs. . .... . .... . .. . .... . . . .. . .. . .... 47,584 Resorves with Federal Reserve Bank.. . . ... .. .. . .... 302,857 Balances with domestio banks.. .. . . . .. . . . . . . • . . . . . . 202,035 Domand depo. its-adjusted" . . . .......... ......... 1,055,070 Ti mo dep osits.. ... . . . .. . .. . ... . .. . ....... . ....... 174,252 United States Government deposito .. . .. . .. . . .. . . .. . 180,107 B~::~:'i~~~~f~~~~;icr~i 'R~s';;~e il~~k :: : :: : : : :: : :: 41~~~~ 45~~~; 42~~~~ "Inoludes all demand deposits oth~r than interbank and United States Government less ellsh items roported as on h. nd or in procC88 of eolleotion. ' DEBITS TO INDIVIDUAL ACCOUNTS (Thousands of dollars) Maroh March Petg.ohange February 1044 1043 over ye.r 1944 Abileno ... . .. .. .. .. . . . .. $ 17,010 17,206 - 1 10,128 Amarillo . . .. . ........ . . . 42,241 40,010 - 14 40,673 Austin . ...... . .. .. . .. .. . 103.455 128,450 - 10 79.400 63,565 Beaumont ....... .. .. . . . . 51,404 + 4 50,977 Corpus Chri. ti ........ .• . 44,948 40,772 +10 43,450 Corsi oana ... . . ..... . ... . 6,687 6.323 + 0 6,1 85 517,331 460,465 +10 Dallas ... .. . . . . ... .. . .. . 540,209 EI Paso ... . . ..... .. .. .. . 04,007 57,438 +12 62,053 Fort Worth . .. .. .. .. ... . . 105,958 189.400 + 3 100,510 43,780 80,107 +12 Galveston ... ......... .. . 47,267 B oueton . . . . . .. ..... ... . 554,375 452.161 +23 470,857 Laredo ..... . . ..... ..... . 11,448 10,844 + 6 11,001 Lubboek . . ... . ......... . 28,050 26,040 +11 30,522 Monroe, L.... . . . .. . ... .. 18.683 17,104 + 0 18,503 24,000 Port Arthur ... . . . ... .. . . 25,034 21,008 +10 RoslVell, N. M . . ..... . . . . 8,584 8,345 + 3 10.680 San An golo . . .... ....... . 14,003 14,589 - 4 12,706 143,081 130,286 + 5 San Antonio .. . .. ... ... . . 139,499 81,602 70,704 +15 78,004 Shreveport, La . .... .•• . .. 18,496 10,030 - 3 rrexnrkann· . . . .. ........ . 18,754 20,284 27,403 + 7 Tucson. Ariz. .. . .. . . . . . . . 27,811 21,172 17,002 +24 20,720 20,872 85,205 - 24 25,010 27,690 24,482 +13 Wiehi ta Falls . ... .... ... . 25,385 r.r~~~: ::::::::: :::::: ::: Petg.ehnnge ovor month - 11 +4 +30 -0 +3 + 8 - 5 +4 +3 - 7 +16 - 4 - 6 +t +4 - 10 +10 +3 +5 -1 +5 :n +9 Total- 24 cities ... ..... .. $2,008,886 $1,920,264 + 0 $2,015,272 + 4 "Inoludes the figures of two banks in Texarkana, Ark.nsas, located in tho Eighth Di. triot. tCb ango less th.n one-h.lf of one pcr c~nt. GROSS DEMAND AND TIME DEPOSITS OF MEMBER BANKS (Average of daily figurca-Thousands of dollars) Reserve eity banks Country banks Combined total Gro88 demand Mareh 1942 .. .. . . .... $1,804,123 M. reh 1043 . . . .. . .. . . 2,003,849 Novomber 1043 ..... ... . . 3,280,107 December 1943 . . . . ..... . 3,285,642 January 1044 .... . ..... 3,242,360 February 1044. .... . .... 3,277,127 March 1044. . .. . ..... 3,320,227 Beaumont . . .. .. . .... ... . Dallna ... ... . .. .. ... .. . . EIPaso .. . . . .... . . . .. .. . Fort Worth ..... . .. . . .. . . Galveston . ....... ..... .. Houston . ... . . . ... .... . . . Lubbook . . . .. . . .... .... . Port Arthur ..... ... .. . .. San Antonio . . ... . .. .. . .• Shreveport, Ln .. .. . . . . .. . Waco ...... ....... ... .. . Wichita Falls . . . . . ..... . . All other . .... .. . . .. .... . Total . .. .. .. .. .. Gro88 Gro88 Timo domand Timo demand Time $227,001 $1,030,318 $120,307 $ 707,805 $100,784 232,878 1,464,442 186,250 1,220,407 06,020 255,830 1,750,074 153,080 1,530,034 101,850 263,522 1,731,039 100,223 1,55a,704 103,200 270,576 1,000,310 105,973 1,543,050 104,003 274,586 1,608,420 100,105 1,578,008 105,481 277,705 1,725,350 171,392 1,594,870 100,313 SAVINGS DEPOSITS March 31,1044 Percentage ehange in savings deposits from Number of Number of Amount of - - - - - - - -_ reporting savings savings March 31, Feb. 20 banks depo. itors deposits 1043 1044 • 3 10,850 S 5,135,003 +17 .5 + 2 .0 8 07,423 37,025,082 +30.1 + 2.6 23,067 11,578,346 +36.0 + 3 .0 2 3 34.543 17,976,443 + 20 .4 + 2 .3 20,430 13,704,074 +19 .4 + 2.3 4 10 82,306 41,374,087 +19 .5 + 1.0 2 864,< 475,197 + 3 .8 + .1 2 5,231 3,570,788 +18 .6 + 1.8 6 30,558 24,558,116 + 22.3 + 2.2 3 27,903 14,838,827 +20 .7 + 2 .7 3 7,922 5,106,890 + 0 . 2 + 3 .8 6,508 8,607,378 + 4 .6 + .7 3 58 51,750 31,153,602 +11.6 + 1 .8 106 300,545 $211,065,383 +21.4 + 2.2 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 4 and stocks of lumber at the mills have been greatly reduced. In contrast, stocks of Portland cement now on hand in Texas are the largest of record. Although production at Texas cement mills has declined fairly steadily since May 1943 and during the first two months of 1944 was smaller than during the comparable months of any year since 1938, shipments have declined even more rapidly. At the end of February, stocks of cement at Texas mills equaled approximately two and one-half months' supply at current levels of shipment. Daily average production of crucfe oil in the Eleventh District was 30 per cent greater during March of this year than in the same month of 1943 but 3 per cent smaller than the all-time peak reached in November 1943, and slightly below the level maintained since that month. Some of the facilities to handle the increased production of crude petroleum in this district were not completed on schedule and stocks accumulated rapidly, reaching an all-time peak in this district on February 19, 1944. Two pipe lines which were completed in March are now providing additional outlets for crude from west Texas. The daily production allowable for Texas in April is somewhat larger than that for March, with most of the increase being assigned to west Texas. Stocks of crude petroleum in the Eleventh District have declined slightly from the peak reached in February but on April 1 were still 7 per cent larger than a year earlier. Outside this district, stocks of crude oil declined fractionally during March and at the end of the month were 11 per cent smaller than a year earlier. During the first quarter of 1944, the petroleum industry completed 1,330 wells in this district, as compared with 960 wells during the same period in 1943. Drilling in this district has been concentrated in west, north and south Texas during recent months. Acceleration of drilling activity is anticipated in these and in other areas during the remainder of the year, but shortages of labor and equipment will probably prevent the industry from returning to the level of activity maintained prior to 1942. Consumption of cotton at textile mills in Texas and in the United States increased more than seasonally in March, but was Abilene .. ....... . Amarillo .. ....... Austin ........... Beaumont ........ Corr,us Christi .... Dal as ... ... ..... EI Paso . ......... Fort Worth . ..... . Galveston ........ Houston ......... . Lubbock .. ..... .. Port Arthur ..... . San Antnnio .. .. .. Shrevcport, La .... Waco .... . ....... Wichita Falls .. ... BUILDING PERMITS Percentage chonge Percentage valuation from March 1944 Jan. 1 tnMar.31, 1944 chan~e valuat.on Valuation from 1943 No. Valuation Mar. 1943 Feb. 1944 No. 9 S 11,290 86 S 149,095 +624 +14 + 48 269,412 188,395 158 +446 98 + 78 1 106,080 57,364 260 +218 + 21 108 + 35 - 71 234,800 48,957 365 138 - 88 +10 344,862 104,357 - 70 - 25 355 - 32 138 1,733 2,113,958 433,797 +219 + 39 +373 588 104,761 40,285 186 - 22 79 - 34 + 51 374,468 662 830,633 270 +319 + 05 + 32 267,513 46,686 - 79 - 55 303 93 + 5 555,832 659 1,482,572 - 50 232 + 27 - 84 89,940 39,628 283 112 +153 + 23 +103 78,086 115 30.848 +130 +387 +188 50 1 2,054 1,032,080 378,482 848 +136 + 68 204,983 103,044 365 167 +178 +190 + 05 220 279,867 114,585 - 22 89 + 84 +131 109 69,987 41 33,567 +452 +225 + 90 Total ...... 3,060 S2,561,585 IIndicates change over 1,000 per cent. - 47 + 25 7,913 $7,660,879 - 9 VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED (Thousands of dollars) Januury 1 to March 81 March March February 1944 1943 1944 1044 1043 f 46,053 $ 168,416 Eleventh District-total... $ 21,340 S 15,007 S 8,791 11,762 41,336 Residcntial............ 5,62a - 4031 1,973 35,191 127,080 All other.............. 15,717 16,490 6,818 472,867 1,083,876 United States·-total. . . . . 1'16,383 339,698 137,246 101,022 275,808 Residential ............ 85,164 71,786 24,861 371,845 807,088 All other. .... . ........ 141,219 267,912 112,385 lNegative caused by revision of prior mouth's entry. ·37 states cast of the Rocky Mountains. SOURCE: ]/. W. Dodge Corporatiou. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTTON-(Barrels) Increase or decrease in daily March 1044 nverage production frOl~ Dnilyavg. Total March 1048 February 1044 production production - 5,757 + 10,745 7,309,050 235,805 North Texns .....•.• •..•.. ..• -18,706 341,065 +123,907 West Texns ................. . 10,600,900 -18,481 + 50,910 488,110 East Texns .. .. ... .......... . 14,076,700 + 2,889 +118.470 0,032,700 201,377 South Texas ................ . - 2,479 +160,458 5)3,055 Texas Coastal ............... . 15,932,600 Total Texas . .... ... . New Mexico .... ... ....... .. . Norlb Louisiana ............. . 57,852,850 3,499,200 2,360,700 +473,508 + 10,658 - 12,753 1,866,221 112,877 76,442 Total District...... .. 63,721,750 2,055,540 +480,413 SOURCE: Estimated from American Petroleum Institute weekly reports. - -42,534 65 687 -43,286 COTTONSEED AND COTTONSEED PRODUCTS . United StateeTexae August 1 to March 31 August 1 to March 31 Last season Lnst season This season Thie season Cottonseed received at mills 4,306,110 898,650 1,004,688 3,866,542 (tons) ........... . .... . .. .. 3,087,008 852,572 3,505,664 960,253 Cottonseed crushed ~ns) ... .. Cottonsced on hand arch 31: 481,142 90,747 440,654 77,390 (tons) ...... ..... ... .... ... Production of products: 1,235,804 255,543 1,090,724 276,322 Crude oil (thousand lbs.) ..•. 1,763,723 404,328 1,625,288 429,820 Cake and menl (toos) ....... 062,345 200,568 237,686 818,516 Hulls (tons) ............ ... 1,199,207 255,271 285,067 1,047,230 Linters (running bales) ...... Stnoks 00 hand March 31: 29,868 10,486 33,255 8,937 Crude oil (thousand Ibs.) ... ~ 39,53 2 14,706 6,960 63,830 Cake aod meal (tons) ... .... 26,118 4,504 9,727 21,715 Hulls (tons) .......... ...... 302,338 69,301 88,228 260,743 Linters (runoing bales) ...... SOURCE: Uoited Statcs Bureau of Ccnsus. DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND STOCKS OF COTTON-(Balee) March Mnrch February August 1 to March 31 This season Lact season 1044 1948 1044 Coosumption at: 130,386 173,321 17,027 25,375 15,071 Texas mills .. ... ...... .. . 6,804,272 7,500,302 002,102 997,422 811,274 Uoited States mills ...... . U.S. stncke-cnd of month: 2,489,176 In consuming estab'meots. 2,200,201 PubUc stg. & eompreescs.. 10,887,457 11,463,831 ..... ... LIVESTOCK RECEIPTB-(N umher) ~FortWorth---_--San Cattle ............... ... . Calvee .... .. ........... . Hogs ................... . Sheep .................. . March 1944 41,284 13,304 127,837 55,321 March 1043 63,745 18,832 02,765 76,348 February 1044 36,824 15,334 108,529 85,121 March 1044 14,037 15,606 13,276 0,371 AntonioMarch February 1043 1044 16,442 13,887 20,014 16,300 14,120 13,703 21,488 11,594 COMPARATIVE TOP LIVESTOCK PRICES (Dollars per hundred weight) ~FortWorth.---~-- Beef stcers .............. . Stocker steere ...... , .... . Heifere and yearUnl!ll .... . Butcher cows ........... . Calves ................. . Hogs ................... · Lambe ••....•........• · . March 1044 l16.00 14.00 15.75 12.25 14.25 13.75 W.OO March 1943 $15.50 15 .50 15.00 13 .50 15 .00 15.25 W.OO Fcbruary 1044 $15.25 14.00 15.00 12 .00 14.25 13 .65 U.50 March 1044 $14.50 15 .00 12.00 14.25 13.65 14.50 San Antonio-March February 1043 1944 $13.50 $14.50 . i4:00 12 .50 14 .50 14.75 U .50 .ida 12.00 14.25 13.55 H .W CASH FARM INCOME (Thousands of dollare) ~-J.nuary 1044,- - - -Total rceeipts-~-Receipt. from-~ January January Crops Livestock· 1044 1048 10,387 2,301 12,688 ll,9 7 3 11,547 t~~~r:~~: 7,106 18,653 13,1 0 0 2,501 2,267 4,858 6,1 62 New Mcxico ........................ . 8,505 18,325 26,830 23,289 Oklahoma .......................... . 61,699 29,500 01,208 80,136 Texas .............................. . . . :::::::::::::::::::::::: : ls4.720 04,720 50,508 154,237 Total .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . ·Includes receipts from the sale of livestock and livestock product•. SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. PLANTED ACRES-TEXAS-\Thousands of acrcs) IndIcated Actual Average Plauted March Planted Harvest Crops 1933-42 1042 1043 1943 1043 Corn ................... . 5,164 5,638 5,751 6,610 5,526 Oats ................... . 1,846 1,807 1,807 1,593 1,210 Barley ... . . .. ..... ..... . 254 540 571 450 257 30· 20 38 38 34 Flaxseed ........... . ... . 250 . 392 408 400 396 Rice .......... ... ...... . All sorghums ........ .... . 6,162 6,512 7,240 7,062 7,590 Potatnce ......... ..... .. ~ ~ ro H " Sweet potatoes .....•..... g H Soyheans aloDe .......... . U· 46 " 52 52 Cowpeae alonc .......... . 515 610 580 336 336 400 1,134 1,304 1,194 1,194 Peanuts alone ........... . Tame hay .............. . 1,034 1,558 1,715 1,742 1,742 ·Short-timo average. SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. n " n Indicated March 1044 5,330 1,816 374 35 408 8,6~~ 70 21 209 055 1,533 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW considerahly smaller than in the same month last year. Output of. Cotton textiles has been limited by shortage of labor at the · nulIs, and cotton consumption for the first eight months of the current season has been somewhat below the high levels attained during the same periods in the preceding two seasons. The War Manpower Commission has placed the entire cotton textile industry on a mandatory 48-hour week, effective May 14, 1944, in an attempt to increase the production of cotton goods. Receipts and crushings of cottonseed at United States and at Texas cottonseed milIs declined seasonalIy in March. Production of cottonseed oil, cake and meal and hulls at Texas Il1ilIs was considerably smaller during the first eight months of this season than during comparable periods in most preceding Years. Shipments of all products, except linters, were also smaller, however, and stocks of cottonseed oil and cake and meal at Texas mills were higher on March 31, 1944, than on the same date last year, although much lower than on the same date in other recent years. Stocks of hulls at the end of March 1944, were at an all-time low for the date. Operations at United States COttonseed mills have followed approximately the same pattern: production of all cottonseed products has been lower this season than in earlier seasons and shipments of all products, except linters, have been below the 1933-1942 average. On March 31, 1944, stocks of crude oil and cake and meal at United States mills, although higher than for the same date in the last two years, were much below average, and stocks of hulls were the lowest of record for that date. 5 WHOLESAI,E AND RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS 3 21 Percentage change in Net· sales Stoekst~ March 1044 from Jan . I to March 1944 from March February Mar. 31,1944 Mnrch February 1943 1944 from 1043 1043 1044 +34 +23 +16 +17 +4 +48 +22 +23 +27 -t +31 +20 +16 + 12 +11 +32 +22 +15 + 18 +4 +24 +26 +5 +10 +7 + 34 +27 +23 +24 +24 +10 Retail furni ture: Total Hth Dist . . .. DaIlM .. . .... . .... Houaton ........ .. . San Antonio . ..... . 62 6 7 3 +4 +3 - I - t +20 +30 +14 24 Independent stores:· Oklahoma ..... .. .. TexM .. ........ . .. 302 868 +17 +22 +14 +10 Wholcsale trndc:· Mnchinery, eq p't &: supplies . . ....... Automotive supplies Drugs .. ..... . ..... Groceries .......... Hardwnre ... . . .... Surgical equipment. Tobacco '" products. 4 6 6 21 12 5 4 Number of Retni l trllde : Dopartment stores: Total 11th Diat .... DnJIM .. .......... Fort Worth .... .... Hou.ton .... .. ... . . San Antouio ..... . . Shreveport, Ln . .... Other cities .... .. . . rCR~~~!ng 47 7 4 7 5 +'i +57 +40 -4 +17 +11 +14 +12 +7 - I +t +32 +12 +16 +10 ·Compiled hy United States Bureau of CensUll. +'8 - 10 -45 - t - 14 +10 +11 +ia +0 +5 +25 +17 - +'6 4 +iil - 7 -3 +1 tStocks .t end of month. tChange less thnu one-half of one per cent. INDEXES OF DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS Soles ~936-1030 = 100) : Wit out sen.ollal adjustment .... . ... With 80nsonnl adjustment ........... Mnrch 1044 227 247 February 1044 200 241 January 1044 177 206 Stocks (1923- 1925 = 100) Without sCMonll1 adjustment ..... . .. With BCMonnl adjustment .......... . 101 08 97 101 08 112 March 1043 168 185 86 S3 THE 1943 RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY-ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT The Research and Statistical Department of the Federal RethiS district in connection with the second Retail Credit Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve System. Although the principal items on which data were collected were sales, broken down among cash, open account, and instalment account, and acCounts receivable outstanding, some very interesting facts were reflected in the data obtained on balance sheet items. The tabula~ion and analysis covered data from approximately 500 firms tn 23 cities of this district. 1942.' reflecting in lar.ge part the ability of the consuming public to pay cash and m small part the effect on credit sales of Regulation W . Charge account receivables at the end of 1943 did not show consistent changes among the various lines from tl:e amount outst~nding at the end of 1942. However, a sigluficant and consistent trend was the decrease in instalment accounts receivable during 1943 . The declines ranged from 72 per cent for household appliance stores to 3 per cent for jewelry stores, and the average of the percentage decreases for all firms reporting instalment account receivables was 38 per cent. . With dollar volume of sales in 1943 up 43 per cent over sales 1942, women's specialty stores showed the largest increase tn sales among the fifteen types of businesses reporting cash and credit sales. Department store sales were up 42 per cent, followed by an increase of 38 per cent in jewelry store sales. Substantial increases in sales were recorded in some other lines of trade, but some types of 'businesses han&1ing hard merchandise showed declines in sales. Household appliance stores reported a decrease of 36 per cent in sales as compared with those in 1942. Restrictions, rationing and lower inventories contributed to this decrease. The next largest decrease in sales, amounting to 18 per cent, was reported by heating and plumbing equipment dealers. Sales of lumber and building material were down 10 per cent, and hardware store sales showed a decrease of 4 per cent. Merchandise stocks held by reporting firms in most of the lines surveyed were lower at the end of 1943 than those at the end of 1942, although stocks of women's specialty stores at the end of 1943 were 8 per cent above those at the end of 1942, despite recordi sales during 1943. Cash sales of all types of businesses reporting increased in relative importance to total net sales in 1943 as compared with . The bala.nce sh~et items obtained ~or the first time this year m the Retail Credit Surver have prOVided. some very interesting data. Although the reportmg sample was madequate for certain types of businesses, suffi~ier;tt data were received to give a fairly accurate general descnptlOn. Of the four items analyzed namely, cash on hand, demand deposits at banks, marketable se~ curities and notes payable to banks, only the first of these items showed an erratic trend by types of businesses' some reported increases, while others showed decreases in cash on hand on Decemher 31, 1943 as compared with December 31, 1942. Percentage changes in demand deposits showed consistently large increases during 1943, ranging from 12 per cent for lumber and building material dealers to 240 per cent for milk dealers. Demand deposits of department stores, men's clothing stores and household appliance stores showed increases of over 100 per cent. Almost fantastic percentage increases occurred in the volume of marketable securities held by reporting firms on December 31, 1943 as compared with those holdings on December 31, 1942 .. These percentage increases were as high as 4,952 per cent for Jewelry stores, 967 per cent for men's clothing stores, and 408 per cent for department stores. The exceptionally large se~e Bank of Dallas has completed the tabulation of data for ~n MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 6 increases in the holdings of marketable securities during 1943 reflected the fact that businesses generally held relatively small amounts of securities at the end of 1942, but made substantial investments during 1943 when accounts receivable and inventories were reduced sharply. The :firms reporting balance sheet items had total holdings of securities on December 31, 1943 of $5,445,000 as compared with $1,693,000 a year earlier. Their demand deposits at banks increased from $4,556,000 to $8,197,000 during 1943. a year ago. Charge account sales constituted approximately the same proportion of total sales in 1943 as in 1942. Firms reporting balance sheet items showed no change in yearend cash on hand, but demand deposits at banks increased 93 per cent over a year ago. The financial position of these reporting firms was further strengthened by substantial increases in the volume of marketable securities held, and by a considerable reduction in the amount of notes payable to banks. Notes payable to banks on December 31, 1942 by the :firms in our sample had been either reduced considerably or liquidated entirely by December 31, 1943. These changes reflect the exceptionally liquid position of most business concerns that has been achieved during the war period and the backlog of purchasing power that is being built up by business concerns for the postwar adjustment period. There is given below a brief resume of developments in the major lines of business covered in the Survey. Department Stores Stores in this group reporting both cash and credit sales showed an increase of 42 per cent in total sales in 1943 over 1942; most of this increase was attributed to cash sales. Cash sales were 51 per cent of total sales in 1943, whereas in 1942 they represented only 43 per cent of total sales. The decrease in sales of restricted durable goods was more than counterbalanced by the large gain in sales of other lines of goods. The selected balance sheet items reflected the sound financial condition of these firms. Demand deposits at banks at the end of 1943 were twice as large as these deposits reported at the end of 1942. Holdings of marketable securities increased over 400 per cent, and! these firms had no notes payable to banks at the end of 1943. Clothing Stores The following types of businesses were analyzed under this heading: men's clothing stores, men's and women's apparel stores, women's specialty stores, and shoe stores. Men's and women's apparel stores reported an increase of 48 per cent in total sales in 1943 over 1942; most of this increase was derived from sales of women's apparel. Year-end stocks for this group in general were lower in 1943 than in 1942, the one exception being an increase of 8 per cent in stocks of women's specialty stores. Year-end demand deposits at banks had approximately doubled during 1943, while investments in marketable securities showed increases ranging from 178 per cent by men's and women's apparel stores to 967 per cent for men's clothing stores. In every case these firms as a group either liquidated their indebtedness to banks or reduced these debts considerably during 1943. Furniture Stores Although prewar stocks were becoming depleted rapidly during 1943, sales of merchandise manufactured under wartime restrictions contributed to a gain of 21 per cent in total sales over 1942. Year-end dollar volume of stocks at reporting firms was 24 per cent less than a year earlier. Despite credit regulations and higher consumer incomes, the relative proportions of cash sales and credit sales to total sales did not change appreciably in 1943 compared with 1942. Instalment sales in 1943 were 15 per cent higher than in 1942 but represented a slightly lower proportion of total sales in 1943 than in 1942. Year-end instalment receivables were down 27 per cent from Hardware, Household Appliance and Heating and Plumbing Equipment Dealers Priorities and production restrictions have been two principal factors influencing the trend of sales in this group. The largest decrease in the dollar volume of sales was reported by household appliance stores, total sales being 37 per cent smaller than those in 1942. Heating and plumbing equipment dealers reported a 22 per cent decrease in sales, while sales of hardware stores were down only 2 per cent. Year-end inventories of household appliance stores and hardware stores were down 26 per cent and 21 per cent, respecdvely, whereas heating and plumbing equipment dealers reported an increase of 14 per cent in inventories for similar dates. In each of these lines cash sales accounted for a greater proportion of total sales in 1943 than in 1942. Sufficient data were not reported to analyze balance sheet items for this group. The small number of firms reporting these items showed either a small increase or a definite decrease in marketable securities held at the end of 1943 compared with a year earlier. Jewelry Stores The 1943 sales of the firms reporting sales and stocks were 34 per cent above the dollar volume of sales in 1942, while yearend stocks remained about the same. Cash sales increased 79 per cent and! represented 57 per cent of total sales in 1943, whereas these sales constituted only 44 per cent of total sales in 1942. While year-end demand deposits of these firms increased only 37 per cent, marketable securities investments increased considerably. The large percentage increase in the latter iteJll is due to the fact that reporting firms held only a small volume of marketable securities at the end of 1942. Notes payable to banks at the end of 1942 were liquidated by the end of 1943. Lumber and Building Material Dealers The sample covering total sales and year-end stocks included 53 firms. The aggregate sales of these firms in 1943 were 16 per cent below those for 1942 and! year-end stocks declined 11 per cent. Cash sales increased 44 per cent and represented 27 per cent of total sales in 1943, whereas in 1942 they constituted only 17 per cent of total sales. Charge account sales, which predominated in this type of business, decreased from 79 per cent of total sales in 1942 to 69 per cent of total sales in 1943. No significant changes were revealed in the balance sheet items reported. Automobile Dealers and Auto, Tire and Accessory Stores Stores in this group reported a substantial increase in sales in 1943 over 1942 with auto, tire and accessory stores reporting all increase of 36 per cent and automobile dealers reporting a gain of 25 per cent. Gradual relaxing of priorities on automobile partS and the addition of supplementary lines of merchandise resul t.ed in an increase of 16 per cent in year-end' stocks at auto, tire 7 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW Milk Dealers and accessory stores. Cash sales and credit sales represented approximately the same proportion of total sales in 1943 as in ' The comb~ed sales of the thirteen firms reporting increased 1942. 30 per cent 111 1943 over 1942. Year-end demand deposits and Demand deposits at banks by these firms at the end of 1943 investments in marketable securities held by these firms increased ,,:ere up nominally; however, investments in marketable securi- considerably. ties more than trebled for automobile dealers and approximately Coal, Fuel Oil, and Wood Dealers doubled for auto, tire and accessory stores. Notes payable to The small number of reporting firms recorded an increase banks by this group at the end of 1943 were approximately oneof 16 per cent in sales over 1942 and a 13 per cent decrease half the amount reported at the end of 1942. in year-end stocks. Negligible changes were reported in the balance sheet items. Grocery Stores The sample, though inadequate for major analysis, consisted mostly of independent stores. Gasoline rationing has changed ~he buying habits of many consumers,in that they are patroniztng the neighborhood grocers instead of driving to a more distant chain store. Aggregate sales of these reporting firms were up 25 per cent, whereas year-end stocks declined 6 per cent. Most of the increase in total sales was attributed to cash sales, while credit sales showed a compensating decrease in relative impor, tance to total sales. These reporting firms had twice as much cash on hand at the end of 1943 as at the end of 1942; they had increased the aggregate of their demand deposits 85 per cent,andownedalmost three times as much in marketable securities at the end of 1943 a~ a year earlier. The financial position of these firms was further strengthened in that on December 31, 1943 the dollar amount of notes payable to banks was 91 per cent lower than the amount one year earlier. SALES AND STOCKS BY KIND OF BUSINESS Number of firms showing Percentage change 1943 Number of total salc8 from 1942 reporting Increase Deerense firms Total Kind of business Stoeks at end sales· of yeart Noae Department stores .. , ... , , 37 87 -8 +41 26 27 1 -14 Men's clothing stores, . . , ' +30 Men'a and women's apparel storcs ............ , ... , Women's specialty stores .. Shoe stores ............. . Furniture stores . ........ . 13 20 7 31 42 20 13 19 None 26 6 20 5 36 None • 1 8 -3 +48 +43 +4 +21 -37 +34 +8 -11 -24 -26 +1 Household appliance stores. Jewelry stores." , .... . , .. Lumber nnd building mn-16 53 33 20 -11 terial dealers ...••...... Heating and plumbing -22 equipment dealers., .... 3 Nono 3 +14 22 12 -2 -21 Hnrdware stores, •.•... , .. 10 00 42 18 -28 Automobile dealers ••. ... . +25 Auto, tire and accessory stores................. 65 59 6 ta6 +10 Grocery stores" ".. .... . 24 24 None 25 - 6 Milk dealers.. ........... 12 12 None 30 +20 COllI, fuel oil, and wQod dealers............... . 4 3 1 +16 -13 ·Pereentage chan~c8 in 80me cMes differ from those in aecompanying tebl. beeauso of difreront number of firms. tDollnr volue figured nt cost. SALES BY TYPE OF TRANSACTION AND BY KINDIOF BUSINESS Poroentage of total sales No. of ~ Percentage change, 1943 over 1042 Cnsh sales Instalment .alos Ch.r~e account oales rcrr,rting Chnrge ac- Instalment 1942 1043 10 2 1043 1942 1043 Jrms Totelsales Cnsh sales count salos salcs Kind of busine.. 43 51 52 46 5 - 3 3 +25 +67 +42 80 aepartment st,ores .. .. , , , . , . , . . , .. , .. , , . , .. , , . , .... , , . , . 46 56 53 43 1 1 - 5 +58 +29 28 Wen's clothin~ stores .. , , , .. ,., , .. ,., , .. ,., .. , ' ... ' ,., .. 49 45 57 7 80 6 +77 + 32 +43 18 Shomen 's speoialty stores" .. ,." .. ,,,, ... ,,,,,·· , ,,,·,·· 65 76 35 24 10 +48 +28 5 15 18 19 20 66 62 25 + 15 +56 +23 tU~~i~~~co.:iorcs: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 30 29 41 48 38 30 - 20 - 70 14 - 14 -36 41 J oURehold appliance storcs .. , , , , . , , . , .. , ' " , . , . . . , . , . , , . 44 32 25 24 57 18 +8 +79 +38 12 LOWelry stores .... , , .. , , .. , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , . ' , . , ..... , ... 27 17 79 69 4 4 - 22 :1= +44 - 10 46 Humber and building material dealers ., , . , , , , ., ' , ' ••. , . ' , . 46 42 54 58 -25 • -12 - 18 4 ~ating and plumbing oquipmont dealers .. , , .. , . , , .' .. , ' . , 51 52 - 11 38 40 10 -27 9 +30 -4 21 3n 40 47 34 24 19 +15 t +44 +23 ~~f~~~b~l~t~~~~c;S: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 49 49 37 44 39 19 12 - 21 +43 +50 +34 60 Q ' IIro and accessory stores .. , .. , " , .. , " , , .. " ... , , . . 56 44 44 56 +2 +61 +28 17 45 46 54 55 +32 +27 +30 13 ifrrd~a~~~~',::::::::::::::::::::::: 20 24 76 71 - 100 +0 +38 +16 3 oa, fllel oil, and wood dealers .... , ...... , .. " .... , . ... , ·These firms reported no instalment sales. tIndiontes less than one-half of one per oent. f2~ · · · · · · i - :::::::::::: ::::: ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE AT END OF YEAH BY KIND OF BUISNESS Chargo accounts receivable Instnlment accounts reNumb"r at end of yoar . ceivable at end of ycar ~ , roport- Percentago As per oent of ' Percentnge As per cent of IDg ohange annual charge- chango annual instalfirms 1043 from nccount sales 1043 from ment sales Kind of business 1042 1942 1943 1042 1942 1948 +13 20 18 -32 68 41 aCP~r'tmont stores, ... , , .. 30 _ 7 20 17 -24 19 16 IVan s clothin~ stores, .... 22 9 10 17 -30 9 5 Shomon" speCialty storos., 17 -81 13 10 • • • 6 F oe ,storcs, , . " . , , . , , .. , 32 52 -27 - 6 18 13 nurmture stores, . , , , , , ... 18 35 42 -72 - 13 8 9 9 J ousehold appliance stores. 25 26 -3 +26 34 40 o 10lVob stores ... , , ..... , . lry 'Urn er and building mat31 25 -47 13 11 -7 U ler!al dealers.. .. . .. .. .. ,22 eMI~g nnd plumbing , 16 17 -29 3 Ii e~ulpmcnt deniers .. ' , . , 18 11 24 -60 10 o - 10 Aa~ ware stores .... , ,., , . 16 21 - 31 10 11 +6 AUt mobile dealers, , . . . . . 30 Uo. tire and accessory 10 22 -54 12 13 +30 cstoros".,." ... , .. " .. 44 12 14 -10 Ilirkcrlstorcs .. , , , .. , .. . 18 o 10 +13 C ealerA ............ . 13 doni, fucl :oil, and wood 16 13 ealors.. .. . .. .. .. .. .. . 3 +20 tLess than one-half of one per cont. " I'hose firms reported no instalment sales. + . . . . BALANOE SHEET ITEMS OF FIRMS INCLUDED IN RETAIL CREDIT SURVEY Porcentage change in nmounts reported Deo. 31, 1043 over Deo. 31, lR42 Bank Number of Notes deposit. Morkotable pabablo Cl\8h on re~orting hand (domand) rrna seourities to anks Kind of business' 9 19 Department stores .. , .. , .. +110 +408 t 12 + 15 +100 Men's clothing storcs ..... +967 - 98 Men's nnd women's apparel 3 stores .. , .. , " , .. ,., ,., + 68 +178 12 :1= Women's speoialty stores., + 84 +210 - 33 3 + 91 +233 Shoe stores ... , , . , , ' . , . , , - 100 14 +380 Furniture storos, ... , .. , . , - 48 + 2 :1= 203 98 0 + 61 + 39 Household appliance stores. No oh~. 10 + 37 +4952 +14 - 100 Jewelry stores .... , , . ' , . , , Lumber and building mn43 + 12 terial dealers ... , .. , .. , . 8 + 7 + 50 11 - 36 + 47 7 Hardware stores" .. , .. , . , - 94 36 + 242 Automobile denIers . .. , , .. + 36 +50 - 41 Allto, tire nlld acoessory 24 - 10 + 21 stores . ........ .... .. .. - 53 + 98 + 179 9 +123 + 85 Grocery stores .... , .. , , .. - 91 7 8 +240 + 367 Milk dealers ... , .. , .... , , - 21 ConI, fuel oil, and wood None 3 +133 22 dealers ...... .......... - 46 'Heating nnd plumbiug dealers did not furnish suffioient data for this olassification. tTbese firms bad no noles pnyable to bauke. - II - 106 - - + MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 8 MAY 1,1944 NATIONAL SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS (Compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) - ..... ..... INDUSTRIAL PRODUOTION .......... " 000 , ' .. 4MIII.IoU.fM-MTllt,.m . ... 1OO 0.0 /' 040 00 0 200 V It 0 240 200 / . 1;1 140 120 \ 100 eo IUT leo 1935 -3 9 average. 100 Steel production advanced somewhat further in March and the first three weeks of April. Output of lumber was maintained at the level of the first two months of the year ~nd production in the first quarter is indicated to be 3 per cent larger than in the first quarter of 1943. 140 ./ ) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Output of manufactures and minerals was slightly sma ll er in March than in the previous tWO months and the Board's index of total industrial production declined 2 points to 242 per cent of the 200 ,/ \6 0 120 I" 100 J eo 18~e. 18" 1940 1841 lUI 1842 1844 Federal Reserve index. Monthly figures, latest shown is for March . COST OF LIVING ~O"~~~~----~--~~~~~~--~---r--~~·~80 170 - - - 170 ~ ~ 150 ~--+---+---l----+---+--+---I:--I lso 140 rooos / '-\- . 1 '-;-~ f--+--t---t--1- -+----:/1-:::7- 120 ...."';,"r.~?~V-=- __ j~ITE": 130 1\0 100 _~~ 140 130 120 --l 110 '- '--- 100 . 1 _ r'" so 90 90 SO. &937 1938 1939 1$40 1941 Industrial activity declined slightly in March. Retail sa les were m aintained at an exceptionally high level and commodity prices were relatively stable. 1 942 1943 1944 Bureau of Labor Statistics' indexes. Last month in ~ach calendar quarter through September 1940, monthly thereafter. Mid-month figutes, latest shown arc for March. The number of aircraft delivered increased about 4 per cent above the level of the preceding 4 months to a new high of 9,118 planes. Deliveries of merchant ships continued to rise from the loW January rate and in March were at approximately the level of a year ago. Output of .other products in the machinery and transportation equ ipment industries declined somewhat in M~rch. Output of nondurable manufactures, as measured by the Board's index, declined about 1 per cent in March. This decline ""as due largely to the continued drop in small arms ammunition production. Manufactured food production was 11 per cent greater than in March of Inst year. Coal production declined 6 per cent in March from the exceptionally high rate in Febru~ry due partly to the return to a six-day work week in anthracite mines and partly to a continu~tion of manpower shortages in both hard and soft coal mines. Output of crude petroleum and metals was maintained in large volume. The value of construction contracts awarded in March, according to reports of the F. W. Dodge Corporation, was slightly greater than in January and February, but was still lower than in any COr" responding month since 1935. DISTRIBUTION Department store sales increased more than seasona lly in March and continued at ~ high level in the first half of April. Sales in March were about 18 per cent larger th'an in the corresponding month last year, reflecting in part the earl ier date of Easter this year and the heavy buying of jewelry, cosmetics, furs, and other items before the higher taX rates became effective on April 1. Freight carloadings declined slightly in March from the high level of earlier months, owing chieflY to a drop in the movement of coal and grain products. Total loadings were maintained in the firs~ half of April. COMMODITY PRICES The general level of wholesale commodity prices advanced slightly from the middle of March to the middle of April. Federal maximum prices for cement, lumber, and various other industrial COIn- MEMBER BANK RESERVES ----+--~-+------ 14 modities were increased. Retail food prices showed little change from February to March, while ret~il prices of most other commodities continued to advance slightly. BANK CREDIT U~'9 ID40 19~1 t842 194a Continued growth in currency and the transfers from Treasury war lo~n deposits to deposits subject to reserve requirements resulted in a decline in excess reserves of member b~nks and in substantial purchases of Government securities by the Reserve Banks during March and the first three weeks of April. Owing to special factors, excess reserves declined to a low point of 600 million doll~rs at the end of March but increased in April and on April 19 were about 900 million dollars, somewhat less than had generally been held in recent months. Itl44 Wednesday figures, latest shown are for April 19, 1944. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS 20 +---A<~--+---~ " 1-1----1 10 1940 1 944 Breakdown between required and excess reserves partly estimated. Wednesday figures, latest shown are for April 19, 1944. Federal Reserve Bank holdings of U. S. Government securities were at a new high level of 12.7 billion dollars on April 19, after increasing by half a billion in the preceding four weeks. Most of the growth was in holdings of Treasury bills. Reporting member banks in 101 leading cities reduced their holdings of Tre~sury bills by 321 million dollars in the four weeks ending April 12, while holdings of other Government securitiCS showed little change. The greater part of the decline in bill holdings in the four-week period occurred at banks outside New York and Chicago, but there were wide fluctuations within the period reflecting transactions at Chicago banks associated with the April 1 personal property tax ~sscssment date ill Illinois. Loans for purchasing or carrying Government securit ies continued to decline, ~s repaymentS were made on funds advanced during the Fourth War Loan Drive; these loans to brokers and dealers have fallen by 450 million dollars since the end of the drive and arc nOw less than at any tiOle in recent months; loans to others, which rose by 600 million during the drive have subsequently declined by 400 million. Commercial loans declined by 210 million over the month . Adjusted demand deposits, which d eclined somewhat in the latter half of March, increased during the first half of April, bringing the total outstanding to about a billion less than the level prior to the opening of the drive. Government deposits at theoe same banks fell by 1. 5 billion dollars during the four weeks ended April 12.
@FedFRASER