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The Office of Economic Policy

HOUSING DASHBOARD
February 17, 2016
Recent housing market indicators suggest that housing activity continues to strengthen. Solid
residential investment in 2015Q4 contributed 0.3 percentage point to GDP growth.
Meanwhile, home price appreciation has moderated—from a double-digit pace in late 2013
and early 2014 to a more sustainable mid-single-digit pace now. This moderation occurs as
high home values, in some areas, challenge affordability for potential homebuyers. In addition,
home price valuations look to be somewhat elevated relative to pre-bubble norms.
Although some mortgage borrowers continue to struggle in the wake of the crisis, delinquency
and foreclosure rates are closing in on their pre-crisis ranges. The number of distressed sales
also continues to drop.
Now that most housing market indicators for the entirety of 2015 are available, this month’s
Housing Dashboard features a special topic reviewing housing market developments in 2015.

Housing Market Flash

February 2016

Housing Market Flash
Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Pre-bubble
norm
(2000-2002
Current
average) Trough
level
Single-family homes
New

921

(thousands)

Existing

Inventory of homes
available for sale

New

(months' supply at current
sales rate)

Existing

4.1
4.6

Housing starts

1,289

Building permits

1,257

CoreLogic HPI
w/distressed sales

115.7

Inflation-Adjusted

111.6

Construction activity
(thousands)

Prices
(index, Jan 2000 = 100)

CoreLogic HPI
Housing affordability

127

544
Dec-15
4,820
Dec-15
5.2
Dec-15
3.9
Dec-15
731
Jan-16
720
Jan-16

137.3

186.4
Dec-15

101.9

136.0

Nov-11

4,779

270
Feb-11
3,060
Jul-10
12.2
Jan-09
11.3
Jul-10
353
Mar-09
337
Jan-09
Nov-11

Sales

Current 12-month
average versus yearearlier value
14.1%

Dec-15

6.7%
-0.3
month(s)

-0.4
month(s)

10.1%
6.8%
5.0%
6.3%

101.1

161.7

Jul-06

(NAR, index=100 when median family income qualifies
for 80% LTV mortgage on a median priced home)

Current level
versus prebubble norm
(2000-2002)
average

Dec-15

8
Jan-09

58
Feb-16

point(s)

117
Oct-08

158
Feb-16

point(s)

Improved
Improved
Improved
Improved
Improved
Improved
Improved
Improved

-1.0%

-40.9%
0.8%
1.1
month(s)

-0.7
month(s)

-43.3%
-42.7%
61.1%
21.9%
27.7%

Weakened

Sentiment
59

Homebuilder
(NAHB, over 50 means majority view conditions
positively)

Home-buying conditions

152

(Reuters/Umich, index = good time - bad time + 100)

6

-1
Improved

point(s)

Improved

point(s)

Improved

thousands

1

6

Demographics
Household formation

1113

(thousands)

Homeownership rate
(percent)

67.7

100
461
2008-Q4 2015-Q4

290
thousands

-653

63.5
63.7
-0.8
-4
2015-Q2 2015-Q4 percentage point(s) Weakened percentage point(s)

1

Special Topic: 2015 in Review

February 2016

Housing market activity in 2015 posted solid gains, supported by a stronger labor market, low
mortgage interest rates, and somewhat improved household formation. Stronger single- and multifamily construction activity contributed to higher residential investment compared with the level seen in
2014. However, construction activity and construction employment are low relative to their pre-crisis
levels and relative to the level needed to support typical growth in the number of households and
demolitions, suggesting that further improvements are likely.
Also, new and existing home sales reached new, post-recession highs in 2015 as housing demand
strengthened. Home prices rose in 2015, albeit at a more moderate and sustainable pace than in 2014,
across all major home price indexes. Rising prices helped lift more borrowers from negative equity,
though in states where home prices are still far below their earlier highs, negative equity remains more
prevalent.
In the mortgage market, low mortgage interest rates helped support housing demand and home sales
in 2015. Accordingly, mortgage originations for home purchases increased roughly in line with sales
activity. However, borrowers, particularly those with less-than-pristine credit histories or low downpayments, continued to face difficulties obtaining a mortgage.

Starts and Permits
New residential construction activity
continued to recover and hit an 8-year
high in 2015. Housing starts increased to
1.106 million in 2015, the highest level since
2007. Building permits, a more stable and
forward-looking indicator of construction
activity, rose to 1.164 million, also the
highest total since 2007. As a result,
residential fixed investment increased
8.7 percent in 2015, up from just 1.8 percent
in 2014, and contributed 0.3 percentage
point to GDP growth.

Millions
2.4
2.1
1.8

1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6

Housing Starts
Building Permits

0.3
0.0

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Changes in Home Prices

24

Home prices grew at a modest pace.
After rising at high single-digit and low
double-digit rates in 2013, home price
growth has moderated to expand at low
single-digit rates in 2015, ranging from a
3.5 percent for the Zillow Home Values
Index to 5.4 percent for the FHFA Home
Price Index.

12-month percent change

16
8
0
20-City Case-Shiller

-8

FHFA Purchase-Only
CoreLogic

-16
-24

Zillow

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

Source: Standard and Poors, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow

2

'12

'14

'16

Special Topic: 2015 in Review
Mortgage interest rates remained low.
The average interest rate on new 30-year
fixed-rate conventional mortgages settled
was 3.85 percent in 2015, down from
4.17 percent in 2014, and only slightly
higher than the 3.66 percent averaged in
2012. However, mortgage interest rates are
expected to rise due to the Fed rate hikes in
2016.

February 2016

Interest Rate of 30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

Percent
9
8
7
6
5
4
3

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: Freddie Mac

Mortgage Applications

Mortgage applications edged up thanks
to an increase in purchase activity. The
MBA Mortgage Applications Index inched

Index, 2000:Jan 7 = 100

3000

up 1.6 percent in 2015, largely due to a

180

2500

12 percent jump in purchase applications.

210

Purchase (right scale)

2000

Refinance activity remained muted, with the
annual average for 2015 4.9 percent below

150
Refinance (left scale)

90

its year-earlier level, as many borrowers

1000

have already refinanced into lower rates.

500

60
30

0

0
'00

'03

'06

'09

'12

'15

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Credit Score at Mortgage Origination

The median FICO score of newly originated

800

mortgages fell slightly in 2015 from around

Score

750

760 to around 750, up from roughly 700 in
the early 2000s. At the 10th percentile, the

120

1500

median

700
25th percentile

FICO score for new mortgages was down to

650

642 by the end of 2015, compared with less

600

than 600 in the early 2000s.

550

10th percentile

500
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Note: Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0; mortgages include first-liens only.

3

'14

Housing’s Importance to the Economy
Residential investment continues to give
a modest lift to GDP growth. Residential
investment rose at an annual rate of
8.1 percent in 2015Q4, adding

Percent

10.0

February 2016

Residential Investment's Contribution to
Real GDP

8.0
6.0

0.3 percentage point to real GDP growth,

4.0

matching the average contribution over the

2.0

last four quarters. Data through January

0.0

suggest that residential investment is on
track to make a somewhat smaller gain in
2016Q1.

-2.0
-4.0
-6.0

GDP (% Change, Annual Rate)
Residential Investment's Contribution

-8.0
-10.0
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Employment in residential construction
continues to recover. Over the past year,
it has increased by 12,500 jobs per month,
compared with 13,700 jobs per month in
the year-earlier period. The level of

Employment in Residential Construction

Millions

Percent

4.0

4.0

Number Employed (left scale)
Share of Total Private Employment (right scale)

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

employment remains relatively low:
residential construction employment
totaled just over 2.5 million workers in
2015Q4, accounting for roughly 2.1 percent
of total private payroll employment,
compared with around 2.6 percent in the
early 2000s.

'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
Note: Includes those employed directly in residential construction as well as related
specialty trades.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Trillions

Household Real Estate and Net Equity

Housing wealth is nearing its earlier
peak. The value of household real estate
reached $22 trillion in 2015Q3, up from a

Percent

Market Value of Real Estate (left scale)
Net Equity (left scale)
Equity's Share of Value (right scale)

25

75

20

65

15

55

10

45

5

35

low of $16 trillion in 2011Q4. The current
level is close to its 2006Q4 peak, but the
sustainable level is higher than in 2006
because of population-driven growth in the
housing stock and overall inflation.

0

25
'00

'02

'04

Source: Federal Reserve Board

4

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

Housing Starts and Inventories

February 2016

New residential construction activity
continues on its gradual upward

Starts and Permits

Millions

2.0

trajectory despite some recent volatility.
Single-family starts (light blue line) and
permits (dark blue line) dipped in

1.5

December. In the multifamily sector,

1.3

construction activity is back in the range

1.0

seen before the crisis, but the rapid rise in

0.8

rents suggests that construction activity is

0.5

not yet fully meeting demand.

Single-Family Starts

1.8

0.3

Single-Family Permits
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Permits

0.0
'00

'02

'04

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

In February, builder confidence fell to a

40

market positively) for the last 20 months.

30

All three of the index’s components—sales

20

expectations over the next six months,

'16

50

(meaning a majority of builders view the

'14

60

index has recorded readings above 50

'12

70

National Association of Homebuilders

'10

80

10-year high registered in October. The

'08

Builder Confidence

Index

9-month low, but remained close to the

'06

10

current sales, and buyer traffic—are above

0

their 2014 averages.

'00

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

Unsold Homes

Millions
Millions

The inventory of homes for sale remains
well below historical averages. The stock

'02

'16

Source: National Association of Homebuilders

Thousands

4.5

of existing homes for sale (dark blue line)

3.5

December, the lowest level since January

Existing (left scale)

4.0

was at 1.79 million units at the end of

700

3.0

2013. The stock of new homes for sale
(light blue line) was at 237,000. At the

500

Series average

2.5

current sales pace, there is 3.9-month

1.5

for new homes, the available inventory is

1.0

equivalent to a 5.2-month supply.

400
300

Series average

2.0

supply of existing homes available for sale;

600

200

New (right scale)
100
0
'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Source: National Association of Realtors and U.S. Census Bureau

5

'14

'16

Underpinnings of Housing Demand
Mortgage interest rates remain very low
by historical standards. The average
interest rate on new 30-year fixed-rate
conventional mortgages settled at a
9-month low of 3.65 percent in the week

February 2016

Interest Rate of 30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages

Percent
9
8
7

ending February 11. The current rate is only
34 basis points higher than the lowest rate
recorded in 2012.

6
5
4
3

'00

The National Association of Realtors
Housing Affordability Index suggests that
housing remains affordable for the typical

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: Freddie Mac

Home Affordability

Index
240

family. The index declined for the first time
in five months in December. The rebound in

200

house prices accounts for much of the

180

decline in affordability since its peak in 2013.

160

(Note that the index assumes a 20 percent

140

down payment; interest rates would be

120

higher and affordability would be lower for a

Record Affordability
Index = 214.5

220

100

family that made a smaller down payment).

Historic Average
(data since 1971)

80
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

'14

'16

Source: National Association of Realtors

Households remain positive about home

Attitudes Towards Buying
Index (Good minus Bad plus 100)

buying conditions. The University of

180

Michigan Consumer Survey’s “Good Time to

170

Buy” Index remained higher than the long-

160

term average in mid-February. Low interest

150

rates continue to be the main factor cited

140

when respondents were asked why home-

130

buying conditions are good.

120

Long-Run Average
(data since 1986)

110

100
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

Source: University of Michigan Consumer Survey

6

'10

'12

Underpinnings of Housing Demand
Senior loan officers at banks report easing of
mortgage lending standards in recent
quarters. Despite two quarters of moderate

FRB Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
on Mortgage Lending

100

Net Percent of Banks Reporting
Tightening Standards

80

tightening at the end of 2014, the last four
quarters mark a period of sustained easing since

60

the period of dramatic tightening during the

40

financial crisis. (Note that the level of the line

February 2016

20

shown corresponds to the change in lending
standards, with values below 0 representing an
easing of lending standards and values above 0
representing a tightening).

Tightening

0
-20

Easing

-40
90

94

98

02

08

10

14

Mortgage Originations by Credit Score

Despite the easing, lending is still restrained,
and riskier borrowers continue to have very
limited access to mortgage credit. Mortgage
originations have been rising over the past year,
but the pick-up has been driven largely by
borrowers with credit scores above 780.

Billions of dollars

<620

1,000

620-659

660-719

720-779

780+

800
600
400

Originations by borrowers with credits scores
below 780 are well below pre-crisis levels. Almost

200

no mortgages are being extended to borrower

0

with FICO scores below 660.

Credit Score at Mortgage Origination

The median FICO score of newly originated

800

mortgages has fallen slightly in recent quarters to

750

around 750, but it is still up from roughly 700 in the

Score

700

early 2000s. At the 10th percentile, the FICO

median
25th percentile

650

score for new mortgages was down to 642 by the

10th percentile

end of 2015, compared with less than 600 in the

600

early 2000s.

550
500
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
Note: Credit Score is Equifax Riskscore 3.0; mortgages include first-liens only.

7

'14

Household Formation
Household formation fell sharply in
2015Q4. Between mid-2006 and 2014Q3,
the rate of household formation averaged

February 2016
Household Formation

Millions
3.0
2.5

roughly half its historical average of
1.2 million per year. Household formation

1.5

surged at the end of 2014 and remained

Historic Average
(data since 1956)

2.0

1.0

above its historical average through
2015Q3. However, household formation

0.5

slowed drastically in the fourth quarter. In

0.0

the year ending in December, just 191,000

-0.5

households were formed.

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Treasury calculation

84

working has seen a partial recovery. The

'12

'14

'16

Employment-to-Population Ratio
Ages 25-34

Percent

The proportion of young adults who are

'10

82

employment-to-population ratio for
individuals ages 25-34 has reversed over
half of the decline that occurred during the
recession. The strengthening labor market

80
78
76

should support household formation going

74

forward.

72
70
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Growth in Rents vs. Overall Inflation
Higher rents are an obstacle to young

Year-over-year percent change

7.5

adults establishing their own households.
The supply of rental housing appears to

5.0

CPI-U: Rent of
Primary Residence

have not risen as fast as demand and, as a
result, rents have been increasing rapidly.

2.5

They outpaced overall inflation by
3 percentage points over the year ending in

0.0

December.

CPI-U: All Items
-2.5
'00
Source: BLS

8

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Homeownership

February 2016

The homeownership rate edged up in
2015Q4. The homeownership rate was
63.7 percent in 2015Q4, up from 63.5 in
2015Q2, which was the lowest reading

Homeownership Rate
Percent
70
68

since 1967Q4. The homeownership rate
may stagnate in coming quarters as
household formation continues to recover
because newly formed households are
more likely to rent before purchasing a
home.

66
64
62

60
'80

'85

'90

'95

'00

'05

'10

'15

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

First-time home buyers account for
around half of purchase mortgage
originations. The share of newly originated
mortgages going to first-time buyers was
51.2 percent in December. Smoothing

Percent

55

Share of Mortgages Accounted by
First-time Buyers

53

through the normal seasonal fluctuations,
the series appears to be on an uptrend—it

51

was 50.2 percent a year earlier.
49

47
'13

'14

'15

Source: American Enterprise Institute

Primary Reasons for Renting among
Young Renters who Prefer to Own

87 percent of households headed by
young adults that are renting say that
they would prefer to own if they could
afford it. Of those households, the most

Cannot qualify
for a mortgage

35

commonly cited reasons for not owning are
lack of downpayment (59 percent) and not
being able to qualify for a mortgage to buy

Cannot afford
downpayment

59

a home (35 percent).
0

10

20

30
40
Percent

50

60

70

Source: Report on Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2014, Federal Reserve Board

9

Home Sales

February 2016

New single-family home sales have
rebounded in recent months but are

New-Single Family Home Sales

Thousands

above their levels of a year ago. At an

1600

annual rate of 544,000 in December, they

1400

were 24 percent above their average level in

1200

2014. New single-family home sales

1000

averaged 502,000 units for all of 2015, the

800

best annual performance since 2007. Still,

600

the current pace of sales is still only about

400

half the level seen prior to the boom in the

200

early 2000s.

0

'02

Sales of existing single-family homes
bounced back in December following
declines in the previous two months,
which were due in part to new disclosure

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Millions

Existing Single-Family Home Sales

7

6

requirements for mortgages originated
after October 1. The new requirements
have reportedly increased the amount of
time it takes to close on a sale. Existing
single-family home sales averaged 5.23

5

4

3

million units in 2015, up 6.3 percent from
2014, and the highest annual total since

2

'00

2006. (January data will be released on

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: National Association of Realtors

February 23).
The National Association of Realtors

Pending Existing Home Sales
Index, 2002: Jan = 100

index of pending sales of existing homes

130

ticked up in December and was above its

120

level of a year ago. The index is a leading

110

indicator of existing home sales which are

100

recorded at the closing of the sale. The
National Association of Realtors is

90

projecting that existing home sales will rise

80

1.5 percent in 2016.

70
60
'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

Source: National Association of Realtors, Treasury Calculation

10

'14

'16

Home Prices

February 2016

After rising at a high single-digit to
low-double-digit pace in late 2013 and
early 2014, the pace of home price
appreciation has eased. Home prices are

Changes in Home Prices

24

12-month percent change

16

now growing at a more sustainable

8

low-to-mid single-digit pace.

0
20-City Case-Shiller

-8

FHFA Purchase-Only
CoreLogic

-16
-24

Zillow

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: Standard and Poors, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow

Home prices remain below their precrisis peaks. Most measures for the nation
as a whole are currently around early 2005
levels. Forecasters generally believe that
home price appreciation will remain
moderate going forward. Participants in
the 2016Q1 Pulsenomics/Zillow home price

Home Prices
Index, January 2000 =100

220

20-City Case-Shiller
FHFA Purchase-Only
CoreLogic
Zillow

200
180
160
140

survey expect home prices to rise
3.7 percent over the four quarters of 2016.

120
100

'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

'16

Source: Standard and Poors, FHFA, CoreLogic, Zillow

The ratio of home prices to rents, a

Price-to-Rent Ratio

Percent

common way to assess whether home

2.0

prices are overvalued, remains well below

1.8

its pre-crisis peak. That said, the

1.6

substantial appreciation of home prices
since late 2012 has pushed up this ratio, and

1.4

it is now noticeably above its pre-crisis

1.2

range.

1.0
0.8
'84

'87

'90

'93

'96

'99

'02

'05

'08

'11

Source: Ratio of CoreLogic National Home Price Index to CPI Owner's Equivalent
Rent. Both Indexes set to 100 in January 1983.

11

'14

Mortgage Originations

February 2016

Applications for home purchase

Mortgage Applications

mortgages have been volatile of late.

Index, 2000:Jan 7 = 100

The Fed rate hike and new mortgage

3000

disclosure requirements may have caused

2500

fluctuations in recent months. Purchase

210

Purchase (right scale)

180

150

2000

applications remain well below pre-crisis

Refinance (left scale)

levels. Refinancing activity has been very
low since mid-2013 as most borrowers

120

1500
1000

90

who have been able to refinance have

60

500

already done so.

30

0

0
'00

'03

'06

'09

'12

'15

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

New mortgage originations have
increased over the past year but
remain low by pre-crisis standards.
New mortgage originations rose to
$437 billion in 2015Q4, up from a low of
$354 billion in 2014Q4. The low level of
mortgage originations stands in contrast
to the pattern of some other forms of

New Originated Installment Loan Balances
Billions

Billions

250

900

Auto Loan (Left Axis)
200

700
Mortgage (Right Axis)

150

originations, which have been increasing
briskly along with sales and now stand
near the top of their historical range.

400
300

200

50

100
0

0
'04

'06

70 percent of new mortgages were backed
by the FHA, VA, or GSEs in the first three
quarters of 2015 (dark blue and light blue
portions of bars). While bank portfolio
lending has increased noticeably, the
private-label mortgage-backed securities
market has experienced essentially no
recovery since collapsing in late 2007.

'10

'12

'14

Mortgage Originations by Investor

backed by the government has fallen since
higher than pre-crisis levels. About

'08

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The share of new mortgage originations
its 2009 high, but remains significantly

600
500

100

household credit, including auto loan

800

GSE securitization

FHA/VA securitization

PLS securitization

Portfolio

Share, percent

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

0%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 2015
Q1-3

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance and Urban Institute

12

Delinquencies, Foreclosures and Distressed Sales February 2016
Mortgage foreclosure and delinquency

Foreclosure and Delinquency Rates
Percent

rates continue to normalize. The share of

12

homes in foreclosure declined to 1.9 percent

10

of outstanding loans in 2015Q3. The rate of
mortgages in default (90+ days delinquent
or in foreclosure) fell to 3.6 percent in
2015Q3, compared with a pre-crisis average
of around 2 percent.

Percent of loans 90 days or
more delinquent or in
foreclosure

8
6

Percent of loans in
foreclosure

4
Percent of loans 90 or
more days delinquent

2
0
'00

'02

'04

'06

'08

'10

'12

'14

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association and Haver Analytics

Re-Default Rate 24 Months after Modification

Re-default rates for borrowers who have
received a mortgage modification have

80

Percent

Fannie Mae
Government-Guaranteed
Portfolio Loans

run significantly lower for mortgages that
were modified more recently. Mortgages

Freddie Mac
Private
Overall

60

that were modified in 2013 (24 months ago)
had re-default rates that were between 32

40

and 55 percentage points lower than those
modified in 2008.

20

0
'08

'09

'10

Source: OCC Mortgage Metrics Report for Q1-2015

'11

'12

'13

Distressed Sales as a Percent of Total Sales

The shares of sales represented by REO
sales and short sales have trended down
over the past 3 years. In November 2015,

Percent
35

Short Sales Share

REO Sales Share

30

REO sales ticked up to nearly 9 percent of

25

total sales while short sales remained around

20

3 percent.

15
10

5
0
'06

'07

Source: CoreLogic

13

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

Negative Equity

February 2016

Share of Loans that are Underwater by
Loan-to-Value Ratio

Rising home prices have greatly reduced

Percent

the number of underwater borrowers.

30

The share of mortgage loans with negative
equity was 8.1 percent in 2015Q3, down
from 10.2 percent in 2015Q1. The number
of homes now underwater stands at
4.1 million, a 66 percent drop since the
2011 peak. Mortgages that are very
underwater, with negative equity
exceeding 25 percent, have declined and

100-105

25

105-125

125+

'14

'15

20
15
10
5
0
'10

are now 37 percent of all underwater

'11

'12

'13

Source: CoreLogic Equity Report, 2015 Q2

mortgages.

Amount of Negative Equity
Billions of dollars
800

The aggregate amount of negative
equity continues to fall. Since 2010Q1,
aggregate negative equity has fallen from
over $800 billion to around $300 billion in
2015Q3.

600

400

200

0
'10

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

Negative Equity Share in Top 5 States
20

Negative equity rates are still very high
in some states. Around 20 percent of

19
17.8

18
16

14.6

14

mortgaged residential properties in Nevada
and Florida still have negative equity.

12.3

12

12.1

RI

MD

10

However, these rates have fallen by more

8

than half in these two states since the

6

beginning of 2013.

4
2
0

NV

14

FL

AZ

State Detail

February 2016

Serious delinquencies have fallen across

Serious Delinquencies for 25 Highest-Rate States:
Q2 2015

the country but the degree of
improvement varies by state. They remain
near peak levels in some states, particularly
in judicial foreclosure states such as New
Jersey and New York. However, serious
delinquencies are down nearly 64 percent
from their peak in Florida, a judicial state

Percent, since Q1 2000

25

Q2 2015 value

Minimum since Q1 2000

Maximum since Q1 2000

20
15
10

that passed a law in June 2013 speeding up

5

the foreclosure process. Serious
hard-hit areas with flexible foreclosure laws,

0

NJ
NY
FL
ME
CT
RI
MD
NV
DE
MS
IL
MA
PA
DC
OH
HI
NM
IN
LA
VT
OK
AL
KY
SC

delinquencies have also fallen markedly in

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver

such as Nevada.
Foreclosure Inventories by State as
a Percent of All Mortgage Homes
Foreclosure inventories have declined in
many states but remain relatively high in
others. Judicial foreclosure is an important
factor: 13 of 23 states that employ the practice
have noticeably elevated rates (shaded red).
Other states with high inventories, like Nevada,
are still struggling economically.

Source: CoreLogic Market Pulse, data as of November 2015

15


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102