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Occupational Projections and Training Data A Statistical and Research Supplement to the 1982-83 Occupational Outlook Handbook U S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics December 1982 Bulletin 2202 1982 Edition Occupational Projections and Training Data 1982 Edition A Statistical and Research Supplement to the 1982-83 Occupational Outlook Handbook U.S. Department of Labor Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner . December 1982 Bulletin 2202 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington. D.C. 20402—Price $6.00 Preface Information about occupational demand and supply is needed to plan education and training programs and provide vocational guidance. This bulletin provides de tailed statistics on current and projected occupational employment and related information on occupational demand and supply—including new estimates of job openings—for use in these activities. It is a revision and update of Bulletin 2052 of the same title published in 1980, and was prepared as part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics program for developing and disseminating projections of the U.S. economy. This bulletin was prepared in the Division of Occu pational Outlook under the direction of Michael Pilot. Alan Eck and Chester Levine supervised its prepara tion. Alan Eck prepared the material on occupational movements and replacement needs. Jon Q. Sargent con tributed the discussion of job prospects for college graduates, and Thomas Nardone prepared the informa tion on broad occupational trends. The training data were assembled by Verada P. Bluford, John P. Griffin, and H. James Neary. The chapter discussing individual occupations represents the work of economists who prepared the 1982-83 edition of the Occupational Out look Handbook. Material in this publication is in the public domain and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced with out permission. Page Highlights................................................................................................................. 1 Chapters: 1. Introduction................................................................................................. Changes indata on job openings................................................................ Assessing thecompetition for jo b s ........................................................... 2 2 4 2. Tomorrow’s jobs ...................... Population............................. Labor fo rc e.......................... Employment grow th............ Total job openings................. Outlook for college graduates 3. Occupational movements, 1980-81 ............................................................ Job openings........................................................................................... New employees ....................................................................................... 12 12 16 4. Employment patterns in selected occupations ............................................ Accountants and auditors........................................................................ Air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanics.................... All-round machinists............................................................................... Architects................................................................................................ Assemblers.......................... Automobile body repairers...................................................................... Automobile mechanics............................................................................. 22 22 23 23 24 25 26 26 Bank officers and managers...................................................................... Bank tellers.............................................................................................. Barbers..................................................................................................... Bookkeepers and accounting clerks.......................................................... Bricklayers and stonemasons................................................................... Business machine repairers...................................................................... Buyers....................................................................................................... 27 28 29 29 30 30 31 Carpenters................................................................................................ Cashiers..................................................................................................... Compositors and typesetters................................................................ Computer operators.................................................................................. Computer service technicians................................................................... Cooks and chefs...................................................................................... Cosmetologists......................................................................................... 31 32 33 34 34 35 36 v Page Dental assistants...................................................................................... Dental laboratory technicians................................................................. Dentists..................................................................................................... Drafters..................................................................................................... Electricians............................................................................................. Engineering and science technicians....................................................... Engineers.................................................................................................. 37 37 38 38 39 40 41 Insurance agents and brokers................................................................... Kindergarten and elementary school teachers......................................... Lawyers..................................................................................................... Librarians................................................................................................ Licensed practical nurses.......................................................................... Machine tool operators............................................................................. Manufacturers’ sales workers................................................................... 41 42 43 44 44 45 46 Physicians................................................................................................ Plumbers and pipefitters.......................................................................... Printing press operators and assistants..................................................... Programmers........................................................................................... Psychologists........................................................................................... Purchasing agents.................................................................................... 46 47 48 49 49 50 Radiologic technologists.......................................................................... Real estate agents and brokers................................................................. Registered nurses...................................................................................... Reporters and correspondents................................................................. Retail trade sales workers........................................................................ 51 51 52 54 54 Secondary school teachers........................................................................ Secretaries................................................................................................ Sheet-metal workers.................................................................................. Social w orkers......................................................................................... Systems analysts...................................................................................... Television and radio service technicians................................................... Typists..................................................................................................... Waiters and waitresses............................................................................. Welders and flamecutters........................................................................ 55 56 56 57 58 59 60 60 61 Appendixes: A. Assumptions and methods used in preparing employment projections. B. Estimating replacement needs............................................................... C. Detailed occupational projections ....................................................... D. Detailed training statistics ................................................................... E. State employment security agencies..................................................... 63 67 76 97 120 vi Highlights and emigration. The CPS-based estimate o f replacement needs for all occupations in 1980 is five times that based on working life tables. Different source o f employment data. The Bureau’s Oc cupational Employment Statistics (oes ) survey has replaced the decennial census and the Current Popula tion Survey (cps ) as the primary source of data used to develop estimates of current and projected employment. The oes survey obtains data from establishments on the number of jobs while the c ps obtains data from households on the number of people employed. In the past, the Bureau’s estimates of replacement needs accounted for roughly 2 out of 3 job openings. Under the expanded definition of job openings, replace ment needs are expected to account for about 90 percent of the 23 to 25 million job openings projected annually over the 1980-90 period. Range o f projected needs. The Bureau has prepared three sets of employment projections. Referred to as the low-trend, high-trend I, and high-trend II alternatives, the projections are based on different assumptions con cerning labor force growth, unemployment, output, productivity, and other factors. More complete supply-demand information. Occupa tional supply-demand analysis was severely hampered in the past because job openings data excluded occupa tional transfers and temporary labor force separa tions—persons who returned to school or assumed household duties, for example—and data on recent graduates of training programs were the principal or on ly source of data on supply. The new cps data provide much more information with which to assess occupa tional supply and demand. Broader definition o f replacement needs. C ps data covering the 1980-81 period have replaced working life tables as the basic data used to develop estimates of oc cupational replacement needs. Whereas deaths and retirements were virtually the only source of replace ment needs in previous estimates of job openings published by the Bureau, replacement needs based on the new cps data include persons who leave an occupa tion for any reason—including occupational transfers and temporary labor force separations—except death Updated job outlook fo r college graduates. Similar to the 1970’s, an average annual surplus of between 200,000 and 300,000 college graduates is expected to enter the labor force during the 1980’s. 1 Chapter 1. Introduction mates were based. Further, data on occupations deri ved from a survey of employers, such as the OES sur vey, are believed to be more reliable than those deri ved from a household survey, such as the CPS. Because of conceptual and procedural differences between the OES surveys and the census and CPS, the occupational employment estimates presented in this bulletin and in the 1982-83 Occupational Outlook Handbook may dif fer significantly from those developed for the same oc cupations in the past.1 Table 1 provides a comparison of 1980 employment from the OES and the CPS for the major occupational groups. As shown in the table, OES-based employment was higher overall—by 5 percent—and in 7 of the 12 major occupational groups. OES employment ranged from 32 percent higher for nonfarm laborers to 14 per cent lower for managers and administrators. Differences were also relatively large for sales workers (11 percent) and service workers, except private household (22 per cent). On the other hand, differences were 6 percent or Occupational outlook information presented in career guidance publications such as the Occupational Outlook Handbook usually appears in the form of general state ments about expected changes in employment and, when data permit, the degree of competition jobseekers are likely to encounter. Descriptive information is consid ered appropriate because it is more easily understood by the target audience—students. However, education planners, training officials, occupational analysts, and others need detailed statistics on current and projected employment, job openings, and training program com pletions to evaluate the adequacy of education and train ing programs. This bulletin is the sixth in a series be gun in 1970 that presents the statistical and technical data underlying the information developed in the Bu reau’s occupational outlook program. In 1981 and 1982, BLS made significant changes in the sources and procedures used to develop its estimates of job openings. This chapter discusses these changes and indicates how the new data differ from, and why they are not comparable with, information presented in previous editions of this bulletin. It also gives examples of how the information can be used to assess the degree of competition for jobs. Chapter 2 provides a broad overview of the 1990 economy under different assumptions and discusses pro jected changes in employment by major occupational group and for all college graduates. Chapter 3 provides an overview of newly developed information about oc cupational movements in 1980-81, and chapter 4 dis cusses the outlook for 55 detailed occupations using the newly developed data. 1 One major conceptual difference is that the OES survey is a count o f jobs while the CPS is a count o f persons. In the OES surveys, persons who hold more than one job are counted in each job held; in the CPS, they are counted only in their primary job. Table 1. Comparison of employment data from the Occupational Employment Statistics survey-based matrix and the Current Population Survey, 1980 (In thousands) 1980 employment Occupational group Percent difference OES data Changes in data on job openings Job openings in an occupation arise from growth in employment and also from the need to replace indi viduals who leave the occupation. BLS has changed its methods of preparing estimates of both these sources of job openings. T o ta l.......................................... Professional and technical workers ...................................... Managers and administrators, except farm ............................... Sales workers............................. Clerical workers........................... Craft and kindred workers.......... Nontransport operatives............. Transport equipment operatives . Nonfarm laborers ........................ Farmers and farm managers...... Farm laborers and supervisors ... Service workers, except private household.................................. Private household workers ......... Employment growth. Estimates of current and pro jected occupational employment presented in this bul letin, unlike earlier estimates, are based on data col lected in the Bureau’s Occupational Employment Sta tistics (OES) surveys. These surveys, conducted in each industry every 3 years, provide more occupational de tail than the decennial census and the Current Popula tion Survey (CPS), on which earlier occupational esti CPS data 102,107 97,270 5.0 16,395 15,613 5.1 9,355 6,822 18,864 12,369 10,679 3,528 5,860 1,484 1,205 10,919 6,172 18,105 12,529 10,346 3,468 4,456 1,485 1,218 -14.3 10.5 4.2 -1.1 3.2 1.7 31.5 .0 -1.1 14,559 988 11,917 1,041 22.2 -5.1 NOTE: The Occupational Employment Statistics survey is a count of jobs; the CPS is a count of persons. Other differences in the data are discussed in appendix A. 2 pational mobility in the January 1981 CPS were com bined with the CPS matched data to estimate annual occupational transfers. These combined data—which provide a composite description of movements into, out of, and between occupations—are termed “merged data.” Table 2 compares estimates of replacement needs in 1980 using the new data based on the CPS and the old data based on tables of working life.3The new estimates are 5 times as high as those derived previously from tables of working life. The new CPS data also indicate a different distribution of replacement needs among the major occupational groups. For example, under the CPS-based method, replacement needs in 1980 were relatively larger for nonfarm laborers and smaller for managerial occupations. The difference in the distribu tion reflects the inclusion of persons who transfer to other occupations or temporarily withdraw from the labor force: Nonfarm laborers are more likely than man agers to transfer to another occupation or stop work ing temporarily. The new data exclude replacement needs due to deaths because appropriate data are not available. As a result of this exclusion, the estimated replacement rate may be 0.5 percent less than the actual. Appendix B provides additional information about the exclusion of deaths from the data. less for 8 of the 12 groups. Appendix A discusses the reasons for the differences between these sources of data and describes the methodology for developing es timates of employment growth based on OES data. Replacement needs. The new data on job openings pre sented in this bulletin include estimates of the need to replace individuals who leave an occupation for all rea sons except death and emigration. Replacement needs for persons who transfer to other occupations and those who stop working temporarily—perhaps to return to school or to raise a family—are included.2 These esti mates provide a better measure of total replacement needs than those previously published by the Bureau, which primarily covered permanent labor force sepa rations—deaths and retirements—derived from tables of working life. Longitudinal data from the CPS have been used to develop new estimates of replacement needs. The lon gitudinal character of the CPS theoretically permits data to be obtained one year later for 50 percent of the households in each monthly survey. Thus, by matching information from the surveys, individuals in these house holds can be identified from one year to the next to obtain information on changes in their labor force status and occupation. The matched data have several limitations which are discussed in appendix B. Briefly, because of response and coding errors, the CPS matched data significantly overstate occupational changes among persons em ployed in both years. To overcome this weakness, ret rospective data from supplementary questions on occu 3 BLS has developed a new set o f working life tables based on la bor force patterns observed in 1977. The tables also use matched CPS data to measure flows into and out o f the labor force. To facilitate comparisons with previous BLS data, however, replacement rates based on working life tables used in preparing Occupational Projec tions and Training data, 1980 Edition (BLS Bulletin 2052) were uti lized in table 2. For information about the new working life tables see Shirley J. Smith, “New Worklife Estimates Reflect Changing Profile of Labor Force,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1982, pp. 15-20. 2 An occupational transfer is defined as movement between any of the detailed, 3-digit occupations from the 1970 Census o f Population Classified Index o f Industries and Occupations (Bureau o f the Census, 1971). Table 2. Comparison of replacement needs based on the Current Population Survey and the working life table, 1980 (In thousands) Replacement needs Distribution of replacement needs Occupational group CPS ’ Working life table 2 CPS 1 Working life table 2 Total .............................................................................. 19,809 3,778 100.0 100.0 Professional and technical workers ................................ Managers and administrators, except farm ..................... Sales workers................................................................... Clerical workers ................................................................ Craft and kindred workers............................................... Nontransport operatives .................................................. Transport equipment operatives...................................... Nonfarm laborers.............................................................. Farmers and farm managers ........................................... Farm laborers and supervisors........................................ Service workers, except private household.................... Private household workers.............................................. 1,828 1,081 1,592 4,071 1,749 2,227 599 1,781 135 334 3,996 392 497 353 261 960 340 303 83 155 107 49 668 65 9.2 5.5 8.0 20.6 8.8 11.3 3.0 9.0 .7 1.7 20.2 2.0 12.9 9.2 6.8 25.0 8.9 7.9 2.2 4.0 2.8 1.3 17.4 1.7 1 Replacement needs were calculated by applying CPS-based replacement rates used in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1982 Edition, to 1980 OES survey-based employment data. 2 Replacement needs were calculated by applying working life table rates used in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1980 Edition, to 1980 OES survey-based employment data. 3 Individuals who move to another area and who must be replaced create additional replacement needs. How ever, since the Bureau focuses on the employment out look for the Nation as a whole, replacement needs re sulting from geographic movements within the Nation are excluded from the analysis. Replacement needs due to emigration are insignificant and are also excluded. To assess the future supply-demand relationship, pro jected data about physicians were examined. Openings for physicians during 1980-90 are estimated to average 17,500 annually. Since the number of U.S. and foreign medical school graduates—the only source of supply of new physicians—is expected to number 19,G O O21,000, a surplus of physicians is indicated. Evidence of oversupply in some areas of the country is already evident, and supply-demand imbalances may intensify. Assessing the competition for jobs To assess the degree of competition for jobs, infor mation is needed about both demand and supply. In addition to providing more comprehensive information on demand, or job openings, as explained in the pre vious section, the new data available from the CPS pro vide a great deal of information on the characteristics of workers entering occupations. By using these and other data, some assessments can be made of the ex pected competition for jobs in many occupations. Such conclusions require detailed analyses; simple compari sons of data on job openings and information on new graduates of training programs do not suffice. Follow ing are three illustrations using the newly developed data. The first—for physicians—is an example of an oc cupation for which quantitative data on supply are readily available and fairly complete. The second and third—registered nurses and food counter workers—are examples of occupations for which quantitative data on supply are limited; they illustrate how qualitative as sessments of expected competition can be developed. Chapter 4 presents similar supply-demand information for 55 occupations. Registered nurses. As in the case of physicians, analysis of the supply-demand relationship for nurses begins with a review of the flow of workers into and out of the occupation during the course of a year. During 1980, approximately 130,000 job opportunities existed: 10,000 due to employment growth, 30,000 due to the need to replace nurses transferring to other occupations, and 90,000 due to the need to replace nurses who stopped working. Persons age 25-34 who left the labor force and assumed household responsibilities accounted for a significantly large group. An initial review of supply data indicates that ap proximately 70,000 of the individuals who completed nursing training programs in 1980 entered the profes sion that year. These data indicate, therefore, that many more opportunities exist each year than are filled by new graduates of nursing schools. The newly devel oped data about occupational movements help put into perspective the importance of the large reserve pool of licensed but inactive nurses who comprise an additional source of supply. Review of the CPS-based data on movements into professional nursing indicates that about 35,000 entrants had been employed in another occupation a year ear lier, and 95,000 had not been working. The data also indicate that 45,000 persons age 25 or older had been out of the labor force a year earlier due to household responsibilities. This latter group probably does not in clude many recent graduates. Thus the picture emerges that nurses generally do not discard their training by transferring to employment in other occupations but do temporarily leave jobs because of family responsibilities and, when convenient, return to the profession. Projected data for 1980-90 indicate that the total num ber of job openings for nurses is expected to increase while no increase in the number of nursing graduates is anticipated. With no increase in the output of nurs ing schools, new nursing graduates would constitute only 40 percent of the required supply compared to an estimated 50 percent in 1980. It can be concluded, there fore, that opportunities for new graduates will proba bly be better because (1) more opportunities should exist and (2) employers generally prefer new graduates be cause their training is more recent and their salary re quirements are usually lower than for experienced nurses. Similarly, opportunities for trained nurses not presently employed would, on the average, be better Physicians. Analysis of the supply-demand relationship for physicians is facilitated by licensure requirements and unusually accurate recordkeeping. Moreover, the proportion of newly licensed physicians who actually enter the profession is close to 100 percent, far higher than in most occupations. The supply consists primarily of recent graduates of U.S. or foreign medical schools; only a small number of jobs are filled by licensed phy sicians who had previously left the civilian labor force temporarily because of military service, disability, or household responsibilities. The newly developed data show that less than 2 per cent of physicians left the occupation in 1980-81. This corroborates available information about their labor force behavior and is consistent with unpublished data on separations collected by the American Medical Association. Estimated openings in 1980 were compared with data from the Bureau of Health Professions (BHP) on gradu ates of U.S. and foreign medical schools. BHP supply data for 1980 indicate an increase of about 18,000 in the total number of physicians, consisting of graduates of both U.S. and foreign medical schools. This estimate roughly coincides with the estimate of annual openings derived from CPS data. 4 because of the increased number of opportunities. In deed, employers may have to increase salaries in order to attract additional qualified nurses. While it is not possible to characterize the situation as a shortage, train ing program planners may decide to increase the num ber of nurses in training programs if they consider it desirable to maintain or increase the proportion new graduates comprise of total supply. son in 5 transferred from another occupation. The largest single group obtaining employment consisted of persons age 16-19 with a high school education or less. Only 15 percent of all openings were for full-time jobs. Over the 1980-90 period, 270,000 annual job open ings are projected for food counter workers—20,000 due to increased employment and 250,000 due to re placement needs. Despite the fact that all training for this occupation occurs on the job, information about the supply-demand relationship derived from the CPS data should be of interest to persons seeking informa tion about part-time jobs, and to corporate planners. For example, young persons who had not been work ing are the major source of supply of new food counter workers. In the face of increased demand, employment prospects for this and other demographic groups should improve. However, the potential supply of persons age 16-19 is expected to decline through the 1980’s. With demand increasing and the potential supply decreasing, employment prospects for young persons are especially good, and additional incentives such as an increase in wages may be necessary to lure a larger proportion of this age group into the labor market. This may not be possible, and corporate planners may have to consider hiring other groups of workers to fill their needs. Food counter workers. This occupation, in which em ployees are trained on the job, provides a final example of how analysis of CPS-based data about movements into and out of an occupation can provide insights into the supply-demand relationship. In 1980, about 220,000 job openings were filled—about 40,000 openings were due to employment growth and 180,000 to replacement needs. Replacement needs were exceptionally large for this occupation be cause almost 50 percent of all employees left the occu pation during the year—half of them transferred to other occupations and half stopped working. Of those who stopped working, by far the largest group were persons with a high school education or less who left the labor force to attend school. Information about persons obtaining jobs as food counter workers during 1980 indicated that only 1 per 5 Chapter 2. Tomorrow’s Jobs This chapter provides an overview of expected trends in the economy and of job openings over the 1980-90 period. It also assesses the outlook for college graduates. of the population will directly affect the types of goods and services demanded. For example, as the number of young people declines, the need for some education services will fall. When greater numbers of people from the baby boom establish families, they will require more housing and goods such as appliances. Shifts in the age structure of the population also will affect the composition of the labor force. These effects are discussed in a later section. Population Changes in population are among the basic factors that will affect employment opportunities in the future. The demand for workers in any occupation depends ultimately on the goods and services sought by the public. Changes in the size and characteristics of the population influence the amount and types of goods and services demanded. Changes in population also affect the size and characteristics of the labor force— people who work or are available to workthe which in turn can influence the amount of competition for jobs in an occupation. Three population factors that will affect future employment opportunities are population growth, shifts in the age structure of the population, and movement of the population within the country. Regional differences. National trends in population may not be the same as changes in a particular region or locality. A nation as large as the United States is bound to vary from one place to another in rate of population growth. For ex ample, between 1970 and 1980, the population of the Northeast and North Central regions increased by 0.2 per cent and 4.0 percent, respectively, compared with 20.0 percent in the South and 23.9 percent in the West. These differences in population growth reflect the movement of people to find new jobs, to retire, or for some other reason. Geographic shifts in the population alter the demand for and supply of workers in local job markets. In areas with a growing population, for example, demand for services such as police and fire protection, water, and sanitation will increase. At the same time, in some occupations more people looking for work in those areas could increase competition. Individuals investigating future employment opportunities in an occupation should remember that local conditions could differ greatly from national projections. Sources of information about local job market conditions can be found in appendix E. Population growth. The population of the United States has increased throughout the century. However, the rate of growth (the size of the annual increases) was declining until the post-World War II “baby boomX'which lasted until the late 1950’s. Since the 1960’s, the rate of growth has riecljned again_______________ _____________ ___ "" X / f n 1980, the population was 226.5 million. It is ex pected to increase by about 0.9 percent a year during the 1980’s, slightly faster than during the 1970’s. Continued growth will mean more people to provide with goods and services, causing greater demand for workers in many industries. The effects of population growth on employ ment in various occupations will differ. These differences are accounted for in part by the age distribution of the" future population. Labor force The size and characteristics of the labor force determine the number and type of people competing for jobs. In addition, because workers are a vital part of the production process, the size of the labor force affects the amount of goods and services that can be produced. Growth, altera tions in the age structure, and rising educational levels are among the labor force changes that will affect employment opportunities through the 1980’s. Age strirrture. Because uf the “Uaby~b6om,” the propor tion of people age 14 to 24 was high in the 1970’s. Through the 1980’s, as these young adults become older, the propor tion of the population between the ages of 25 and 44 will swell. By 1990, nearly one-third of the population will be in this age group compared to 24 percent in 1970. As a result of the relatively low number of births during the 1960’s and early 1970’s, the number of people between the ages of 14 and 24 will decline in the coming decade. The number of people 65 andover will growTbut more “slowly than in recent years. These changes in the age structure Growth. The civilian labor force consists of people with jobs and people looking for jobs. Through the late 1960’s and the 1970’s, the number of people in the labor force 6 ever, declined because these occupations did not expand rapidly enough to absorb the growing supply of graduates. As a result, 1 out of 5 college graduates who entered the labor market between 1970 and 1980 took jobs not usually considered by graduates to be appropriate to their educa tion and abilities. The proportion of graduates in clerical, lower level sales, and blue-collar occupations grew. The outlook for college graduates is discussed in detail in a later section. grew tremendously because many people bom during the baby boom entered the job market, and women increas ingly sought jobs. In 1980, the civilian labor force totaled about 105 million persons— percent of the noninstitu63 tional population 16 years of age and over. The labor force will continue to grow during the 1980’s but at a slower rate than in recent years. By 1990, the size of the labor force is expected to range from 122 to 128 million persons— projected increase of 17 to 22 percent a over the 1980 level. Contributing to this anticipated growth will be the expansion of the working age population and the continued rise in the proportion of women who work. The labor force will grow more slowly between 1985 and 1990 than in the early 1980’s. This slowdown will result from a drop in the number of young people of working age despite continued growth in the participation rate of women. A larger labor force will mean more people looking for jobs. However, because of shifts in the age structure, the employment outlook for many individuals will improve. Employment growth The previous sections discussed trends in the population and the labor force— two factors that affect employment opportunities. Other factors include the policies of the Federal Government, the rate of inflation, and the availabil ity of energy. Changes in these and related factors affect the amount and type of goods and services that will be demanded in the future. If the demand for an industry’s output increases in the future, more workers generally will be hired to increase production, and employment in the industry will grow. Growth in an occupation is closely related to the growth rates of industries in which the occupation is found. For example, growth in the construction industry would result in an increase in em ployment of blue-collar workers, as would growth in mining, manufacturing, or transportation— industries that also employ a high proportion of blue-collar workers. Likewise, growth in finance, insurance, and real estate would result in an increase in demand for white-collar workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has prepared three sets of projections of employment in industries and occupa tions. Referred to as the low-trend, high-trend I, and hightrend II alternatives or scenarios, the projections are based on different assumptions concerning growth of the labor force, unemployment, output, productivity, and other factors. The low-trend projection assumes a decline in the rate of labor force growth, moderately high employment levels throughout the decade, continued high inflation, and modest increases in production and productivity. The two high-trend scenarios are more optimistic, assuming a slowdown of inflation and lower unemployment rates than the low-trend scenario. The high-trend I scenario assumes a faster growth of the labor force but slower growth of productivity than the high-trend II scenario. A more detailed discussion of the assumptions and methods used to develop the three sets of projections can be found in appendix A. Age structure. As a result of the baby boom, a large number of young people entered the labor force during the 1970’s, increasing competition for many entry level jobs. As the number of people between 16 and 24 drops, there will be fewer first-time entrants into the labor force, and competi tion for entry level jobs should ease. The proportion of 25to 54-year-olds in the labor force will swell as people born during the baby boom get older. The whole economy should benefit from this change because workers in this age group generally have work experience and are, therefore, more productive and less likely to be unemployed. Education. Employers always wish to hire the best qualified persons available at the offered wage. This does not mean that they always choose those applicants who have the most education. However, the higher educational attain ment of the labor force as a whole could increase competi tion in many occupations. Many technical, craft, and office occupations now require postsecondary vocational educa tion or apprenticeship, because employers prefer to hire trained applicants rather than provide training. Thus, high school dropouts are likely to be at a serious disadvantage when seeking jobs that offer better pay or advancement. Traditionally, a college education has been viewed as a gateway to better pay, higher status, and more challenging work. As college education has become more widespread, the proportion of workers in the labor force who have completed at least 4 years of college has risen from 8 per cent in 1952 to 19 percent in 1980. Recent experience has shown, however, that the traditional view of a college degree as a guarantee of success has not been matched by reality. Between 1970 and 1980, employment of college graduates grew 84 percent. The proportion employed in professional, technical, and managerial occupations, how Growth in industries. Over two-thirds of the Nation’s workers currently are employed in service-producing industries— transportation, communications, and public utilities; finance, insurance, and real estate; wholesale and retail trade; services; and government. Goods-producing 7 be expected to grow as the health services industry ex pands. The demand for systems analysts and program mers to further develop and utilize computer resources is projected to grow rapidly. Some occupations in this group will offer less favorable job prospects. For exam ple, employment of secondary and college and universi ty faculty is expected to decrease somewhat as a result of declining school enrollments. Other jobs, such as lawyer or architect, are expected to grow substantially but will be very competitive because they attract many ap plicants. Managers and administrators include workers such as bank officers and managers, buyers, credit managers, and self-employed business operators. Between 1980 and 1990, this group is expected to grow from 9.4 million to between 10.6 and 11.3 million, or by 13 to 21 percent. Changes in business size and organizational structure have resulted in differing trends for self-employed and salaried managers. The number of self-employed business managers will continue to decline as large corporations and chain opera tions increasingly dominate many areas of business. Some small businesses, such as quick-service groceries and fastfood restaurants, still will provide opportunities for selfemployment, however. The demand for salaried managers will continue to grow as firms increasingly depend on trained management specialists, particularly in highly technical areas of operation. Clerical workers constitute the largest occupational group and include bank tellers, bookkeepers and accounting clerks, cashiers, secretaries, and typists. Between 1980 and 1990, employment in these occupations is expected to grow from 18.9 million to between 22.4 and 23.9 million workers, or by 19 to 27 percent. Although new develop ments in computers, office machines, and dictating equip ment will enable clerical workers to do more work in less time and will change the skills needed in some jobs, con tinued growth in employment is expected in most clerical occupations. Exceptions are keypunch operators, stenogra phers, and airline reservation and ticket agents— occupations in which employment is expected to decline or change very little as improved technology reduces the need for workers. Conversely, the more extensive use of computers will greatly increase the employment of computer and peripheral equipment operators. Sales workers are employed primarily by retail stores, manufacturing and wholesale firms, insurance companies, and real estate agencies. Employment in this group is ex pected to grow from 6.8 million to between 8.1 and 8.8 million workers, or by 19 to 28 percent. Much of this growth will be due to expansion in the retail trade industry, which employs nearly one-half of these workers. The de mand for both full- and part-time sales workers in retail trade is expected to increase as a growing population and changes in its geographic distribution require new shopping centers and stores. Despite the use of laborsaving merchan dising techniques such as computerized checkout counters, industries— agriculture, mining, construction, and manufac turing-employ less than one-third o f the country’s work force. Service-producing industries are projected to employ an even greater proportion o f the work force through the 1980’s.4 Among the specific sectors, services will continue to grow fastest and will provide the most new jobs. Gains are expected to be greatest in the industries that provide health care services— hospitals, nursing homes, medical laborato ries, therapists’ offices, nurses’ services, and doctors’ and dentists’ offices. Auto repair firms and establishments that provide a variety of business and professional services such as personnel supply and computer and data processing also should experience faster than average rates of growth. Trade, currently the largest industry sector, will rank second in new job formation. Wholesale trade is projected to grow about as fast as the average for all industries; eating and drinking establishments are expected to ex perience faster than average employment gains. Manufacturing employment grew relatively slowly in the 1970’s but a faster rate of growth is expected during the 1980’s, primarily because of anticipated strong demand for durable goods such as computers and peripheral equipment as well as other high-technology items, including optical equipment, typewriters and other office equipment, radio and communication equipment, and scientific and control ling instruments. In nondurable goods industries, falling demand or rapid productivity growth are likely to dampen employment growth. Public sector growth will slow, reflecting, in large part, a projected decline in education expenditures. Growth in occupations. Growth rates among the major occupational groups have differed markedly since 1960. White-collar workers now represent about half of the total labor force, up from 43 percent in 1960. The number of service workers also has risen rapidly, while the blue-collar work force has grown only slowly and farm workers have declined. The following section describes expected changes among the broad occupational groups between 1980 and 1990. Appendix C provides information by detailed oc cupation. Professional and technical workers include many highly trained workers such as scientists and engineers, medical practitioners, teachers, entertainers, pilots, and ac countants. Between 1980 and 1990, employment is ex pected to grow from 16.4 million to between 19.7 and 20.7 million workers, or by 20 to 26 percent. Greater ef forts in energy development and industrial production will contribute to a growing demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians. The medical professions can 4 For a detailed discussion o f employment trends and projections in industries, see Economic Projections to 1990, BLS Bulletin 2121, March 1982. 8 other private household workers should rise as more women work outside the home and personal incomes rise, fewer people are expected to seek these jobs because of the low wages, lack of advancement opportunities, and low social status associated with the work. Service workers include a wide range of workers— firefighters, janitors, cosmetologists, and bartenders are a few examples. These workers, most of whom are employed in service-producing industries, make up the fastest growing occupational group. Factors expected to increase the need for these workers are the rising de mand for health services as the population becomes older and—as incomes rise—more frequent use of restaurants, beauty salons, and leisure services. Between 1980 and 1990, employment of service workers is ex pected to increase by about 24 to 32 percent, from 14.6 million to between 18.1 and 19.2 million workers. Farm workers include farmers and farm managers as well as farm laborers. Employment of these workers has de clined for decades as farm productivity has increased as a result of fewer but larger farms, the use of more efficient machinery, and the development of new feeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. Between 1980 and 1990, the number of farm workers is expected to decline from 2.7 million to between 2.4 and 2.2 million workers, or by between 10 and 18 percent. more stores and longer operating hours will cause employ ment to increase. Craft workers include a wide variety of highly skilled workers, such as carpenters, tool-and-die makers, instru ment makers, all-round machinists, electricians, and auto mobile mechanics. Between 1980 and 1990, employment in this group is expected to increase from 12.4 million to between 14.6 and 15.8 million, or by 18 to 27 percent. Employment in many craft occupations is tied to trends in a particular industry. Employment in nearly all construc tion trades, for example, is expected to grow because of high demand for residential construction and business in vestment in new plants. In contrast, the long-run employ ment decline in the railroad industry will lessen the demand for some craft occupations concentrated in that industry, such as railroad and car shop repairers. Because of advances in printing technology, very little growth is anticipated in the printing crafts. Operatives, except transport, include production work ers such as assemblers, production painters, and welders. Between 1980 and 1990, employment is expected to rise from 10.7 million to between 12.2 and 13.2 million work ers, or by 14 to 23 percent. Employment of operatives is tied closely to the production of goods, because the major ity of these workers are employed in manufacturing indus tries. The projected slow growth of some manufacturing industries, along with improved production processes, will hold down the demand for many of these workers. Em ployment of textile operatives, for example, is expected to decline as more machinery is used in the textile industry. Transport operatives include workers who drive buses, trucks, taxis, and forklifts, as well as parking attendants and sailors. Employment in most of these occupations will increase because of greater use of most types of transporta tion equipment. Some occupations, such as bus driver and sailor, will grow only slowly. Between 1980 and 1990, employment of transport operatives is expected to rise from 3.5 million to between 4.2 and 4.4 million workers, or by 18 to 26 percent. Laborers include such workers as garbage collectors, con struction laborers, and freight and stock handlers. Em ployment in this group is expected to grow slowly as ma chinery increasingly replaces manual labor. Power-driven equipment, such as forklift trucks, cranes, and hoists will handle more material in factories, loading docks, and warehouses. Other machines will do excavating, ditch digging, and similar work. Between 1980 and 1990, employment of laborers is expected to increase from 5.9 million to between 6.7 and 7.1 million workers or by 14 to 22 percent^ Private household service workers include housekeepers, child care workers, and maids and servants. In contrast to the rapid employment growth expected for other ser vice occupations, the number of private household workers is projected to remain about the same as in 1980 when em ployment was 988,000. Although demand for maids and Total job openings The total number of job openings expected in future years is the sum of openings resulting from employment growth and those arising from replacement needs (table 3). As discussed in chapter 1, the Bureau’s earlier estimates of replacement needs, which accounted for roughly 2 out of 3 openings, included only openings due to deaths and retirements. These estimates understated replacement needs because they excluded openings that are created as workers leave the labor force temporarily to return to school and for other personal reasons. They also excluded openings created as workers change occupations. After several years of research, the Bureau has developed estimates that take account of these factors. Under this expanded definition, the Bureau estimates that replacement needs account for about 9 out of 10 job openings. Thus, it is apparent that even occupations in which employment is expected to increase slowly or decline— laborers and private household service workers, for example— offer many job opportunities. (For a compari son of estimates of replacement needs under the old and new methods, see table 2, chapter 1.) Replacement needs vary among occupations. These variations reflect differences in the average age of workers in the occupation, the earnings and status associated with the job, and the level of required training. Retail trade sales workers, for example, leave their jobs more readily than physicians do, and more easily find a similar or better occu pation. Physicians have few occupations of equal status and 9 Table 3. Projected average annual job openings, based on low-trend and high-trend I alternative projections,1 by major occupational group, 1980-90 (In thousands) Total openings Employment change Replacement needs Occupational group High Low High Low Total, all occupations...................................................... 23,248 24,884 1,748 2,580 21,500 22,304 Professional and technical w orkers......................................... Managers and administrators...................................................... Clerical workers............................................................................ Sales w o rk e rs ............................................................................... Craft w o rk e rs ............................................................................... Operatives, except transport...................................................... 2,337 1,272 4,810 1,872 2,124 2,527 2,503 1,395 5,121 2,013 2,327 2,734 327 121 355 129 220 147 433 199 505 194 339 249 2,010 1,151 4,454 1,743 1,904 2,380 2,070 1,196 4,616 1,819 1,988 2,486 Transport operatives.................................................................. Laborers........................................................................................ Private household service workers............................................ Service workers, except private household............................ Farmers and farm managers..................................................... Farm supervisors and laborers.................................................. 715 1,985 390 4,842 124 300 766 2,105 393 5,107 129 316 63 81 M ) 356 (-2 5 ) (-2 4 ) 90 128 0 468 (-1 3 ) (-1 3 ) 653 1,904 390 4,486 124 300 676 1,977 393 4,639 129 316 Low 1See appendix A for explanation of alternative projections. High NOTE: When employment is projected to decline, openings arise only from replacement needs. pay to which they could transfer. They also have invested a great deal of time and money in preparing for their careers. As a result, the replacement rate is much higher for retail trade sales workers than for physicians. Outlook for college graduates Growth in the demand for college graduates is primarily the result of growth of those occupations that require a substantial proportion of workers with college degrees, such as professional and technical occupations. In addition, many college graduates enter such occupations each year to replace workers who retire or leave the labor force to return to school or take on family responsibilities. Educational upgrading is another source of growth in demand for college graduates. This occurs when the amount of education required to enter an occupation increases over time as the work and the skills required to perform it become more complex and employers begin to seek college graduates to fill jobs not requiring a degree in the past. During the 1970’s, most of the educational upgrading occurred in managerial and nonretail sales jobs. Not all educational upgrading reflects changes in skill requirements, however. It may also simply reflect the tendency of employers to hire the most qualified people available. As the number of available graduates increases, employers raise their hiring standards and are still able to hire all the workers they need. At the same time, graduates faced with a tighter job market may lower their standards for what they consider appropriate employment. The demand for college graduates in the 1980’s was projected by analyzing trends in both occupational employ ment and educational upgrading within occupations. Alternative low and high projections of total occupational employment were developed as part of BLS’s projections program, as explained in appendix A. Based on trends in the proportion of workers with 4 or more years of college in the major occupational groups, 10 ratios were projected reflecting the proportion of jobs in each group that could be expected to require a college degree. Projected requirements for college graduates were obtained by applying these projected ratios to the projec tions of total occupational employment (table 4). During the 1970’s, employment in professional and technical, managerial, and nonretail sales jobs— occupations generally requiring substantial proportions of workers with a degree— increased 40 percent, compared to about 28 per cent growth for all workers. Between 1980 and 1990, employment in these occupations is projected to grow more slowly. They are expected to increase between 18 and 25 percent, depending on varying assumptions about growth in the economy, about as fast as the average for all occupa tions in the 1980’s. Educational upgrading was projected to occur in profes sional and technical, managerial and administrative, and nonretail sales occupations, continuing the trend toward greater complexity and skill requirements of many of these jobs, as well as employers’ responses to a greater supply. A constant, but small, proportion of the jobs in other occu pations were projected to require a college degree. Table 4. Percent of workers in selected occupational catego ries with 4 years of college or more, selected years 1959-80 and projected 1990 requirements Actual Projected Occupational group 1959 1965 1970 1975 1980 1990 All occupations . . 10.0 12.0 13.2 16.8 19.1 16.9 Professional and technical workers . . 56.1 58.8 59.8 63.8 64.0 69.3 Managers and administrators, except f a r m ............. 13.1 17.7 20.1 28.7 33.4 42.0 Nonretail sales workers...................... 18.8 20.3 24.1 31.1 34.1 41.0 Other occupations . . 2.1 2.3 2.2 4.1 5.6 .9 of college graduates estimated at 3.8 million was already in the labor force, either employed in jobs that did not require their level of education or unemployed. Of course, many of these have since begun satisfying careers in occupations that do not require 4 years of college education. Others, how ever, can be expected to compete for jobs that more fully utilize their education. The job market will be more com petitive to the extent that this pool of underemployed 1970’s entrants competes along with 1980’s entrants for job openings requiring a college degree. Like college graduates in the 1970’s, future college graduates cannot be assured that they will find jobs in the occupations of their choice. Many may experience periods of unemployment, have to relocate to other areas of the country, or job-hop before finding one that satisfies them. As in the 1970’s, some may have to compete with non graduates for the more desirable jobs not previously filled by graduates, but in many cases, their additional education will prove to be an advantage. Even though a college degree may not be required, many employers prefer to hire the best educated candidate who is qualified for a job. In many cases, a college graduate will also have an advantage in gaining promotion in non-college careers over those without degrees. Many graduates who are forced to start work in jobs for which they are overqualified nevertheless may gain useful experience that will be an advantage in competing later for more challenging jobs. Graduates who make a wise career choice and who are best prepared to enter the job market should make a smooth transition from school to work. Those who are not will end up scrambling for the best available jobs. Most graduates, however, will probably find a job and few should face sustained unemployment. College graduates entering the labor force during the 1980’s are expected to encounter job market conditions very similar to those faced by entrants of the 1970’s. About 15 million college graduates are projected to enter the labor force— about 60 percent are expected to be new graduates. Most of the remainder are expected to be re entrants— college-educated workers who left the labor force to raise a family, to pursue graduate education, or for other reasons. Depending on the amount of economic growth realized by the economy as a whole and employment growth in college-graduate-dominated occupations in particular, be tween 12 and 13 million graduates are projected to be required during the 1980’s. About 67 percent of the graduates are expected to be required in professional and technical occupations and 28 percent in managerial, administrative, and sales occupa tions. The majority will be needed to replace college graduates who are expected to retire or leave the labor force for other reasons over the period. A surplus of between 2 and 3 million college graduates is expected to enter the labor force during the 1980’s. If the economy grows as slowly as it did during the 1970’s, the surplus would be the higher figure, an average annual surplus of about 300,000 college graduates— about 1 graduate in 5, just as in the 1970’s. If the economy grows more rapidly than it did in the 1970’s, the average surplus would be about 200,000 college graduates— about 1 in 7— each year. Even with more rapid growth, however, the job market experienced by college graduates in the 1980’s is unlikely to be more favorable than in the 1970’s. In 1980, a surplus 11 Chapter 3. Occupational Movements, 1980-81 This chapter provides an overview of occupational dynamics over a 1-year period—1980-81. Data are pre sented on the demand for new workers—the number of job openings arising from employment growth and replacement needs. The latter source of demand is ex amined in detail to identify the characteristics of per sons leaving occupations. The characteristics of indi viduals who obtained employment during 1980 also are examined to identify (1) their previous employment status, (2) the occupations offering the most opportuni ties for individuals with different levels of education, and (3) the occupations providing the most opportuni ties for part-time employment. While the discussion in this chapter is based on Cur rent Population Survey (CPS) data, rather than the Oc cupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey-based data that appear in chapters 2 and 4, not all of the in formation comes from the same CPS survey. For ex ample, information on opportunities due to employment change comes from CPS annual average data since these are the most accurate. However, replacement needs are estimated using information about occupational separa tions developed by merging matched CPS data about changes in labor force status with January 1980-81 CPS data about occupational transfers. (The methodology for and limitations of this new data base are discussed in appendix B.) Besides providing occupational replace ment estimates, the merged data are used to examine occupational separations by age, sex, and several other characteristics. Finally, supply-related data come from supplemental questions asked in the January 1981 CPS. While the January 1981 CPS information on training program completions is not as accurate as that presented in appendix D, they are presented here because they are consistent with the demand data and identify dif ferences in employment patterns for new graduates and experienced workers with the same education. Although the 1980-81 CPS data on demand and sup ply do not come from the same survey, they nonethe less provide a unique glimpse of labor market dynamics over a 1-year period. However, these data only provide information about 1980-81. Additional work remains to determine how movements into, out of, and between occupations vary with economic conditions. Job Openings Employment opportunities for workers not previ ously employed in an occupation depend on changes in total employment and the need to replace employees who leave the occupation. As shown in table 5, a total o f about 19 m illion job op en ings occurred during 1980. Table 5. Job openings, 1980-81 (In thousands) Annual average employment 1 Job openings Occupational group 1980 1981 Total 97,270 98,313 19,386 15,613 10,919 6,172 18,105 12,529 10,346 3,468 4,456 1,485 1,218 11,917 1,041 16,055 11,315 6,291 18,187 12,397 10,316 3,411 4,469 1,477 1,235 12,136 1,024 2,183 1,658 1,560 3,989 1,574 2,022 544 1,487 135 363 3,490 413 1 Current Population Survey. 2 Information about declines in employment is presented in parentheses for information only. In these cases, replacement needs are the sole source of openings. See appendix B. Employment change 2 Replacement needs 3 1,043 18,343 442 396 119 82 (-132) (-30) (-57) 13 (-8) 17 219 (-17) 1,741 1,262 1,441 3,907 1,574 2,022 544 1,474 135 346 3,271 413 3 Calculated by applying 1980 replacement rates based on merged CPS data to 1980 CPS employment data. See appendix B for information about merged CPS data. 12 Table 6 lists the occupations that had 100,000 or more job openings. How these openings arose is discussed below. his or her occupation during 1980. Of these, 45 percent transferred to another occupation; 17 percent became unemployed; and 38 percent left the labor force.5 Employment change Total employment increased 1 percent during 1980 and provided 1 million new jobs (table 5). This increase was smaller than in most recent years because of un favorable economic conditions. Professional occupa tions registered the greatest employment gain, followed closely by managerial occupations. Even though total employment increased, craft workers and operatives registered declines, reflecting reduced activity in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Employment of farmers and private household workers also declined, a continuation of a long-term trend. Occupational patterns. Separation rates varied signifi cantly among the major occupational groups (table 7). Professional workers and managers had the lowest to tal separation rates while private household workers had the highest. Workers in occupations that generally require the most education and training and have a high proportion of men who work full time—professional occupations such as physicians, dentists, lawyers, and engineers—had both very low labor force separation rates and very low transfer rates. Occupations that re quire relatively little education or training—such as ga rage workers, gas station attendants, gardeners, cash iers, cooks, and waiters and waitresses—generally had both high labor force separation rates and high transfer rates. Replacement needs While the number of job openings created by in creases in employment during 1980 was reduced by un favorable economic conditions, replacement needs cre ated many job opportunities and accounted for about 95 percent of all openings. Replacement needs were greatest for clerical workers, the largest major occupa tional group (table 5). Replacement needs occur when employed individuals transfer to other occupations or stop working. Table 7 indicates that 1 out of every 5 employed persons left 5It may seem inappropriate to include movements into unemploy ment as a source o f replacement needs since individuals who leave an occupation and become unemployed are not replaced. However, even though a job is not created when a person becomes unemployed, openings due to movement into unemployment nonetheless are a component o f employment growth not captured by changes in em ployment levels. This concept is discussed in more detail in appendix B. Table 6. Ranking of occupations by job openings, January 1980-81 Job openings Occupation ' Job openings Occupation ' Number Percent of total Sales clerks, retail trade.................................... Managers and administrators, n e c.................... Cashiers.............................................................. Secretaries, n e c.................................................. Waiters and waitresses ..................................... Cooks, except private household...................... Stockhandlers.................................................... Janitors and sextons.......................................... Bookkeepers ...................................................... Miscellaneous clerical workers.......................... 757,750 711,793 617,973 599,216 465,628 437,341 358,393 333,309 304,789 299,940 4.0 3.8 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 Blue collar worker supervisors, n e c .................. Bank tellers ........................................................ Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers................ Guards ................................................................ Packers and wrappers, except meat and produce ............................................................. File clerks........................................................... Garage workers and gas station attendants .... Dining room attendants ..................................... Accountants ....................................................... 167,243 163,231 161,777 157,362 .9 .9 .9 .8 149,433 145,437 142,084 141,796 140,108 .8 .8 .8 .8 .7 Nursing aides and orderlies.............................. Child care workers, private household............. Building interior cleaners, nec ........................... Typists................................................................. Truck drivers ...................................................... Machine operatives, miscellaneous specified ... Assemblers......................................................... Construction laborers, except carpenter helpers............................................................... Carpenters.......................................................... Farm laborers, wage workers............................ 284,332 277,525 259,528 250,276 245,377 239,385 238,317 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Registered nurses .............................................. Stock clerks, storekeepers................................ Heavy equipment mechanics, including diesel .. Sales representive, wholesale trade................. 137,545 136,765 129,989 129,663 .7 .7 .7 .7 129,295 123,925 .7 .7 232,273 223,865 220,697 1.2 1.2 1.2 Elementary school teachers .............................. Sewers and stitchers ......................................... Checkers and examiners, except manufacturing.................................................... Dishwashers....................................................... Secondary school teachers .............................. 122,685 122,598 121,968 .7 .7 .7 215,773 202,306 196,016 194,134 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 191,982 177,340 173,840 1.0 .9 .9 Not specified clerical workers............................ Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ... Delivery and route drivers................................. Computer, peripheral equipment operators...... Estimators and investigators, n e c ..................... Counter clerks, except fo o d .............................. Welders and flame cutters................................ Sales workers, retail trade, except clerks........ 120,725 112,516 112,433 107,990 107,586 106,382 102,409 100,042 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 Freight, material handlers.................................. Miscellaneous operatives.................................. Child care workers, except private household .. Receptionists ..................................................... Food service workers nec, except private household ......................................................... Food counter, fountain workers ........................ Automobile mechanics....................................... 1 Number 1 1970 Census of Population 3-digit occupational title. SOURCE: Current Population Survey. nec = not elsewhere classified. 13 Percent of total Table 7. Occupational separation rates, 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separation rates, 1980-81 Occupational group Employed, 1980 Total Occupational transfers Not working Total Unemployed Not in the labor force Total ................................................................................................. 100.0 20.0 8.9 11.1 3.4 7.7 Professional and technical workers.................................................. Managers and administrators, except farm ...................................... Sales workers .................................................................................... Clerical workers.................................................................................. Craft and kindred workers................................................................. Nontransport operatives.................................................................... Transport equipment operatives........................................................ Nonfarm laborers................................................................................ Farmers and farm managers ............................................................. Farm laborers and supervisors.......................................................... Service workers, except private household...................................... Private household workers................................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 11.2 11.6 23.4 21.6 16.0 24.0 19.4 33.1 12.4 28.4 27.5 39.6 5.2 5.9 11.0 10.5 7.2 9.7 9.2 13.8 2.1 7.5 10.7 3.0 6.0 5.7 12.4 11.1 8.9 14.4 10.3 19.3 10.2 20.9 16.8 36.7 1.2 1.5 2.6 2.4 4.3 7.1 5.2 8.2 .4 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.8 4.1 9.8 8.7 4.5 7.3 5.1 11.1 9.9 17.4 12.8 32.6 SOURCE: Merged data. See appendix B. Although labor force separation rates were higher for women than for men in every age group, a U-shaped pattern was evident for both sexes—a high rate for young workers, lower rates for workers in the middle age groups, and rising rates as workers approach re tirement age. The U-shaped pattern is much more exaggerated for men than for women. Persons age 16-24 and 55 or older accounted for over 80 percent of all male labor force separations compared with only 50 percent of all fe male labor force separations. This difference in the pat tern occurs because men are much less likely than women to leave the labor force during their prime working ages. However, in some occupational groups, there were significant differences between the rates of labor force separation and transfer. For example, although private household workers were the most likely among the oc cupational groups to leave the labor force, they were among the least likely to transfer to another occupa tion. Similarly, nonfarm laborers were the most likely to become unemployed but not the most likely to leave the labor force. Many laborers are hired for seasonal or short-term jobs that last only a few weeks or months. When the job ends, individuals seek other employment but incur delays in finding it. Occupations that have a large proportion of women frequently have low transfer rates and high labor sepa ration rates. For example, relatively few registered nurses transferred to other occupations during 1980; they tended to leave the labor force altogether rather than change occupations. Education. Individuals with greater investment in edu cation and training would be expected to have lower occupational separation rates than workers with less education or training. The data in table 9 show that occupational separation rates did decline with increased education. However, transfer rates were only slightly lower for college graduates than for persons with a high school education or less. The proportion of per sons becoming unemployed, on the other hand, declined steadily with increased education. College graduates had a rate less than one-third that for persons with a high school education or less. Labor force separations also declined steadily with education, from 9 to 4 percent. At all levels of education, men had lower labor force separation rates than women—reflecting the weaker at tachment of women to the labor force because of house hold responsibilities. Transfer rates, however, were re markably similar for men and women. Age and sex. The total separation rate in 1980 for both men and women declined through the 45-54 age group and then increased (table 8). However, the transfer rate declined continuously, from 22 percent for the young est men to 1 percent for the oldest. Transfer rates were about the same for men and women within each age group. Younger workers are more likely to shop for a job that they consider more rewarding. In addition, many younger workers take jobs in occupations temporarily as a way to advance to better paying occupations. Con versely, older workers are more inhibited in changing occupations because of factors such as seniority, restric tive hiring plans, and personal investment in experience, training, and capital. The proportion of persons who became unemployed declined consistently with age for both men and women. Full- or part-time status. Persons employed part time generally have a weaker attachment to their occupa14 Table 8. Occupational separation rates by age and sex, 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separation rates, 1980-81 Not working Age and sex All employed persons: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 16-19: T ota l.................................................. M ale .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 20-24: T ota l.................................................. M ale .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 25-29: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 30-34: T ota l.................................................. Female.............................................. Age 35-44: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female ........................................... Age 45-54: Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 55-64: T o ta l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Age 65 and over: T o ta l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Employed, 1980 Total Not in the labor force Occupa tional transfers Total Unem ployed Total Household responsibili ties Going to school Other, including retired 100.0 100.0 100.0 20.0 17.3 23.7 8.9 8.5 9.4 11.1 8.7 14.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 7.7 5.1 11.3 3.3 .1 7.8 1.5 1.3 1.7 2.9 3.7 1.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 48.3 47.7 48.9 22.2 22.0 22.5 26.1 25.8 26.5 8.0 9.2 6.6 18.1 16.6 19.9 1.2 .1 2.6 13.1 12.4 13.9 3.8 4.1 3.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 32.1 30.1 34.3 17.0 17.3 16.5 15.1 12.8 17.8 6.2 7.3 4.8 8.9 5.5 13.0 3.8 .1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 1.95 2.2 1.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 21.0 17.3 25.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.0 6.5 14.8 4.2 4.8 3.3 5.8 1.7 11.4 4.2 .1 9.7 .6 .6 .7 1.0 1.0 1.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 16.4 12.8 21.6 9.0 8.7 9.4 7.4 4.2 12.2 3.0 3.1 2.7 4.5 1.0 9.5 3.4 .0 8.2 .2 .1 .4 .9 .9 .9 100.0 100.0 100.0 12.8 9.8 16.1 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.5 3.8 10.1 2.5 2.6 2.3 4.0 1.2 7.8 2.9 .1 6.7 .2 .1 .3 .9 1.0 .8 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.6 7.9 14.4 3.9 3.5 4.4 6.7 4.5 10.0 2.3 2.5 2.1 4.4 2.0 7.9 2.7 .1 6.5 .1 .0 .1 1.7 1.9 1.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 15.0 14.0 16.6 2.3 2.5 2.0 12.7 11.6 14.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 10.9 9.6 13.0 3.7 .1 9.3 .0 .0 .0 7.2 9.4 3.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 29.1 28.2 30.6 1.1 .9 1.4 28.0 27.4 29.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 27.0 26.4 28.0 7.4 .3 19.5 .0 .0 .0 19.5 26.0 8.5 SOURCE: Merged data. See appendix B. tion than full-time workers. While no data on transfers are available separately for full-time and part-time workers, table 10 shows that part-time workers were slightly more likely to becom e unemployed than full time workers. ing in 1980-81, a period of relatively slow growth. In examining similar data for 1977-78, a period of rapid growth, some differences in the patterns of movement are evident. For example, operatives and laborers are less likely to change their occupation in periods of re duced employment growth and are more likely to be come unemployed. However, other workers, such as professional and sales workers, are much less affected by fluctuations in economic activity. As shown in table 11, they changed occupations or become unemployed in about the same proportions in 1980-81, when the economy slowed, as they did in 1977-78, when it was growing rapidly. While there is much to be learned about how occupational movements vary under differ ent economic conditions, the underlying patterns of oc cupational transfers and labor force separations dis cussed in earlier sections do not appear to vary signifi cantly when economic conditions change. A striking feature of the data is the tremendous dif ference in the labor force separation rates between parttime and full-time employees—21 percent for part-time employees compared with 5 percent for full-time em ployees. Much of this difference may be explained by the fact that younger workers, who have a weak at tachment to the labor force, constitute a disproportion ately large proportion of the part-time work force. Many younger workers take part-time jobs on a temporary basis and then leave the labor force to further their education or training. Cyclical patterns. The occupational movements dis cussed above reflect the economic conditions prevail 15 Table 9. Occupational separation rates by level of education and sex, 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separation rates, 1980-81 Not working Level of education and sex All employed persons: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. High school graduate or less: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Some college education: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. College graduate: T o ta l.................................................. M ale .................................................. Female.............................................. Employed, 1980 Total Not in the labor force Occupa tional transfers Total Unem ployed Total Household responsibili ties Going to school Other, including retired 100.0 100.0 100.0 20.0 17.3 23.7 8.9 8.5 9.4 11.1 8.7 14.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 7.7 5.5 11.3 3.3 .1 7.8 1.5 1.3 1.7 2.9 3.7 1.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 21.8 19.5 24.7 8.8 8.6 9.0 13.0 10.9 15.7 4.2 4.7 3.4 8.8 6.2 12.3 3.8 .1 8.6 1.6 1.4 1.8 3.5 4.7 2.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 20.8 17.7 25.0 10.8 10.1 11.6 10.0 7.6 13.3 2.8 3.1 2.5 7.2 4.5 10.8 2.8 .1 6.6 2.2 1.9 2.5 1.2 2.6 1.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 12.8 10.1 17.6 7.6 7.1 8.5 5.2 3.1 9.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 4.1 2.1 7.8 2.0 .0 5.6 .5 .4 .8 1.6 1.6 1.4 SOURCE: Merged data. See appendix B. tered a professional or technical job compared to 3 per cent of those with only a high school education or less. Most professional occupations, of course, generally re quire postsecondary training. Clerical and service workers, except private household workers—occupa tions requiring less training than professional occupa tions—provided 43 percent of all jobs for persons with a high school education or less. About 1 out of 5 col lege graduates obtaining jobs entered a clerical or serv ice job. Table 13 also indicates that recent college graduates exhibit a greater propensity to enter professional occu pations than do all new employees having a college de gree. Likewise, recent high school graduates are more apt to enter the clerical and service (except private household) occupations than all new employees having the same or less education. Both these patterns are to be expected. In the case of college graduates, individuals would be expected to begin work in an occupation for which they have acquired specialized training. Only 11 percent of recent college graduates obtained manage rial or administrative jobs. The comparable proportion for all college graduates was 16 percent. The value of work experience for persons with a high school education or less is also supported by the data. For example, the proportions of recent graduates with a high school education obtaining employment in mana gerial occupations was one-third that for all newly em ployed persons with a high school or less education. When they complete high school, individuals do not possess the skills required by managerial occupations but acquire them later. New Employees The following overview of data from the January 1981 CPS provides supply-related information about new employees: It describes the characteristics of indi viduals who had been working in a different occupa tion or who had not been working in January 1980. Previous work status. The previous work status of per sons obtaining employment in 1980-81 differed signifi cantly by occup ation (table 12). For example, 70 per cent of all new managerial employees during 1980 trans ferred from other occupations—indicating that previous employment was an advantage in getting a managerial job. Obtaining specialized work experience and on-thejob training is frequently a prerequisite to assuming managerial responsibilities within an organization. On the other hand, the proportion of workers who trans ferred into farm and service worker occupations was less than the proportion who had not been working—in dicating that previous employment was not a prerequi site for employment in many of these jobs. Education. CPS data on training possessed by new employees are limited to years of school completed. Although they do not provide information on degrees held or field of training, they provide some information of interest for vocational guidance and planning train ing programs. The occupational distribution of the workers obtain ing employment 1980-81 varied considerably by educa tion level. Table 13 shows that 46 percent of all new employees during 1980 who had a college degree en 16 Table 10. Occupational separation rates by full- or part-time status and sex, 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separation rates, 1980-81 Not working Full- or part-time status and sex All employed persons: T ota l.................................................. Male .................................................. Female.............................................. Full-time: T ota l.................................................. M a le .................................................. Female.............................................. Part-time: T otal.................................................. M ale .................................................. Female.............................................. Employed, 1980 Not in the labor force Occupa tional transfers Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 - - - 3.2 3.5 2.8 4.8 3.3 7.6 2.1 .1 5.6 .5 .4 .6 2.3 2.8 1.4 25.3 28.0 24.0 - 2.9 3.7 1.8 8.0 6.7 10.4 - - 1.5 1.3 1.7 4.2 5.9 3.4 21.1 22.1 20.6 9.1 .2 13.2 6.2 9.8 4.6 5.7 12.1 2.8 - 100.0 100.0 100.0 3.3 .1 7.8 - - Other, including retired 7.7 5.1 11.3 - 100.0 100.0 100.0 Going to school 3.4 3.7 3.0 - - Household responsibili ties Total 11.1 8.7 14.3 - - Total Unem ployed “ - Data not available. SOURCE: Merged data. See appendix B. Table 11. Comparison of occupational separation rates in 1977-78 and 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separation rates Occupational group Professional and technical workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Managers and administrators, except farm: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Sales workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Clerical workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Craft and kindred workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Nontransport operatives: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Transport equipment operatives: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Nonfarm laborers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Farmers and farm managers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Farm laborers and supervisors: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Service workers, except private household: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Private household workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Employed, base year Not working Total Occupa tional transfers Total Unemployed Not in the labor force 100.0 100.0 12.3 11.2 5.8 5.2 6.5 6.9 1.2 1.2 5.3 4.8 100.0 100.0 12.1 11.6 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7 1.2 1.5 4.6 4.1 100.0 100.0 23.4 23.4 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.4 2.4 2.6 9.4 9.8 100.0 100.0 21.4 21.6 10.6 10.5 10 8 11.1 23 2.4 8.5 8.7 100.0 100.0 13.9 16.0 7.0 7.2 6.9 8.9 2.5 4.3 44 4.5 100.0 100.0 22.7 24.0 11.8 9.7 10.9 14.4 3.9 7.1 70 7.3 100.0 100.0 18.9 19.4 11.2 9.2 7.7 10.3 28 5.2 50 5.1 100.0 100.0 31.8 33.1 16.4 13.8 15.4 19.3 5.5 8.2 9.9 11.1 100.0 100.0 13.1 12.4 3.0 2.1 10.1 10.2 .2 4 99 99 100.0 100.0 32.9 28.4 11.4 7.5 21.5 20.9 2.8 3.5 18 7 174 100.0 100.0 28.0 27.5 11.7 10.7 16.3 16.8 3.6 3.9 12.7 12.8 100.0 100.0 40.1 39.6 4.5 3.0 35.6 36.7 4.7 4.1 30 9 32.6 SOURCE: Merged data. See appendix B. The same methodology was used for both periods. 17 Table 12. Previous employment status of persons obtaining employment, January 1980*81 (Percent) Previously employed in Previously not working different occupation Age 15 Occupational group Total T otal............................................................................... 100.0 44.8 48.3 6.9 Professional and technical workers ................................ Managers and administrators, except farm ..................... Sales workers................................................................... Clerical workers ............................................................... Craft and kindred workers............................................... Nontransport operatives .................................................. Transport equipment operatives...................................... Nonfarm laborers............................................................. Farmers and farm managers ........................................... Farm laborers and supervisors........................................ Service workers, except private household.................... Private household workers.............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 50.7 70.5 42.7 45.4 57.2 47.4 52.1 41.5 23.3 23.5 31.8 14.5 48.1 29.3 47.6 50.8 40.9 49.1 45.2 44.6 74.5 51.2 54.8 62.6 1.2 .1 9.7 3.8 1.8 3.5 2.7 13.9 2.3 25.3 13.5 23.0 SOURCE: Current Population Survey, January 1981. Information about occupations offering the most op portunities for high school and college graduates in 1980-81 is presented in tables 14 and 15. Table 14 lists the occupations that provided 50,000 or more openings for persons with a high school education or less. Table 15 lists those that provided 15,000 or more jobs for col lege graduates. Information about the education and training possessed by persons entering specific occupa tions is presented in chapter 4. service workers, except private household; and private household workers—48, 56, and 72 percent, respec tively—were high. As table 17 shows, part-time employment opportuni ties were greatest for service workers, except private household. This group accounted for 30 percent of parttime job openings but only 18 percent of all openings filled during 1980. Occupations that employ a large number of part-time workers—such as the food service occupations—fre quently require little or no training but do provide work experience that may be helpful in obtaining employ ment in other occupations. Table 18 lists the occupa tions that provided 20,000 or more part-time jobs dur ing 1980-81. Altogether, these 63 occupations accounted for 4 out of 5 part-time job openings. The top seven on the list—retail trade sales clerk, cashier, waiter and waitress, cook, stockhandler, private household child care worker, and janitor—alone provided one-third of all part-time openings. Hours o f work. In discussing the demand for new em ployees, the high labor force separation rate of parttime workers was cited as a significant source of re placement needs. Table 16 shows that one-third of all persons obtaining jobs in 1980 were working part time in January 1981 although the proportion varied by ma jor occupational group. For example, the proportions of part-time employment among new employees in the managerial, craft, and nontransport operative groups—13, 13, and 15 percent, respectively—were quite low. In contrast, the proportions for sales workers; Table 13. Persons obtaining employment by level of education, 1980-81 (Percent) High school graduate or less Occupational group Total College graduate Total Completed training in 1980 Total Completed training in 1980 T ota l..................................................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Professional and technical workers ...................................... Managers and administrators, except farm .......................... Sales workers......................................................................... Clerical workers ..................................................................... Craft and kindred workers..................................................... Nontransport operatives ........................................................ Transport equipment operatives........................................... Nonfarm laborers................................................................... Farmers and farm managers................................................. Farm laborers and supervisors............................................. Service workers, except private household ......................... Private household workers.................................................... 11.5 7.4 7.8 21.7 8.9 11.9 2.8 6.9 .4 1.4 18.2 2.0 3.3 5.1 7.0 21.4 10.1 14.5 3.4 8.6 .5 1.8 21.7 2.6 3.1 1.7 6.5 29.5 8.6 13.9 2.9 8.6 .2 1.1 22.5 1.6 46.5 15.5 9.1 14.5 3.4 2.8 .8 1.4 .3 .2 5.2 .3 60.2 10.6 6.1 11.2 1.8 1.9 .4 1.2 .2 .0 6.5 .0 SOURCE: Current Population Survey, January 1981. 18 Table 14. Ranking of occupations by job openings for persons with a high school education or less, January 1980-81 Job openings Occupation 1 Job openings Percent who graduated in 1980 Occupation 1 Number Sales clerks, retail trade.................................... Cashiers.............................................................. Secretaries, n e c................................................. Cooks, except private household...................... Waiters and waitresses ..................................... Managers and administrators, n e c.................... Stockhandlers .................................................... Janitors and sextons.......................................... Child care workers, private household............. Building interior cleaners, nec .......................... 541,781 520,607 383,843 370,684 356,982 338,258 309,645 283,712 242,045 228,960 9.9 14.5 10.0 9.1 4.2 2.2 8.4 8.5 5.6 4.6 Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers................ Blue collar worker supervisors, n e c .................. Bank te lle rs........................................................ Heavy equipment mechanics, including diesel.. Checkers and examiners, except manufacturing.................................................... Welders and flame cutters................................. Guards ................................................................ Stock clerks, storekeepers................................. Delivery and route drivers.................................. 106,141 100,170 100,033 98,469 1.6 .0 10.4 10.2 97,284 95,280 90,651 89,630 86,398 6.5 5.9 7.3 7.5 13.5 Nursing aides and orderlies.............................. Machine operatives, miscellaneous specified ... Truck drivers ...................................................... Assemblers......................................................... Bookkeepers ...................................................... Farm laborers, wage workers........................... Construction laborers, except carpenter helpers............................................................... Miscellaneous clerical workers.......................... Freight, material handlers.................................. Miscellaneous operatives.................................. 224,467 209,837 208,968 206,110 201,851 194,826 9.1 10.7 3.5 9.4 13.4 5.1 188,818 187,340 186,715 179,290 8.5 10.8 4.0 10.0 Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ... Hairdressers and cosmetologists...................... Nonfarm laborers, not specified........................ Shipping and receiving clerks............................ Servants, private household .............................. Painters, construction and maintenance........... Mine operatives, nec.......................................... Not specified clerical workers............................ Counter clerks, except fo o d ............................... Computer, peripheral equipment operators ...... Health aides, except nursing ............................. 79,788 76,839 76,138 72,446 71,905 70,549 68,534 66,529 66,280 65,795 64,995 8.7 13.0 14.1 8.7 2.3 11.0 9.1 3.4 6.2 3.3 8.5 Typists................................................................. Food service workers, nec, except private household ......................................................... Carpenters.......................................................... Automobile mechanics....................................... Child care workers, except private household .. Food counter and fountain workers.................. Packers and wrappers, except meat and produce ............................................................. Garage workers and gas station attendants.... Dining room attendants ..................................... Receptionists ..................................................... 173,680 8.6 172,444 167,347 150,971 150,649 150,645 13.6 6.7 7.2 6.2 7.7 144,727 127,997 125,922 124,042 4.2 11.5 11.0 6.6 Sales workers, retail trade, except clerks......... Estimators and investigators, n e c ..................... Farmers (owners and tenants) .......................... Electricians......................................................... Telephone operators.......................................... Bartenders.......................................................... Teacher aides, except monitors........................ Newspaper carriers and vendors...................... Lodging cleaners, except private household.... Warehouse laborers, n e c .................................. Statistical clerks.................................................. Cutting operatives, n e c ...................................... 62,631 58,539 55,712 54,390 54,250 54,124 53,685 53,230 52,402 52,185 51,704 51,207 9.1 5.6 3.4 13.1 13.3 3.3 3.8 1.3 11.5 7.7 5.1 3.1 123,897 121,804 - 116,459 114,163 9.5 24.7 2.9 7.9 Excavating machine operators, except bulldozer.............................................. Vehicle washers, equipment cleaners . 50,753 50,082 .0 10.9 Office machine operators.................................. File clerks........................................................... Sewers and stitchers ......................................... Dishwashers....................................................... Number 1 1970 Census of Population 3-digit occupational title. SOURCE: Current Population Survey. nec = not elsewhere classified. 19 Percent wh graduated i 1980 Table 15. Ranking of occupation by job openings for college graduates, January 1980-81 Job openings Occupation ' Number Percent who graduated in 1980 Managers and administrators, nec .... Secondary school teachers ............. . Elementary school teachers ............ . Accountants....................................... Sales representives, wholesale trade Sales clerks, retail trade.................... Bank, financial managers................. . Registered nurses ............................. Secretaries, n e c................................. Social workers ................................... 200,123 110,116 109,268 74,586 54,439 46,540 45,463 45,299 45,112 41,806 15.7 46.5 29.2 49.2 9.8 18.1 27.8 40.3 9.1 28.2 Lawyers.............................................. Miscellaneous clerical workers......... Therapists.......................................... Research workers, not specified...... Personnel, labor relations workers..... Officials and administrators, public administration ................................... Computer programmers..................... Typists................................................ Bookkeepers ...................................... Real estate agents, brokers.............. 40,899 40,641 35,820 34,068 32,988 45.4 17.4 51.6 21.3 29.8 31,867 30,953 27,133 27,078 26,815 14.0 44.4 17.0 7.1 10.8 Waiters and waitresses ..................... Sales representatives, manufacturing Physicians........................................... Clergy................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers . 26,171 25,205 24,200 24,056 24,040 Job openings 40.7 39.8 65.1 28.7 24.1 Occupation 1 Number Percent who graduated in 1980 Preschool, kindergarten teachers ..................... Electrical engineers............................................ Editors and reporters......................................... Industrial engineers............................................ Economists......................................................... Blue collar worker supervisors, n e c.................. Estimators and investigators, n e c ..................... Teachers, college and university, not specified Vocational, educational counselors .................. 23,865 23,089 22,628 22,286 21,612 21,598 20,975 20,632 20,558 15.8 59.0 14.3 7.9 14.4 13.8 24.2 19.3 16.3 School administrators, elementary and secondary.......................................................... Teacher aides, except monitors........................ Computer systems analysts............................... Teachers except college and university, nec .... Receptionists ..................................................... Insurance agents, brokers................................. Operations and systems analysts..................... Bank tellers ........................................................ Painters and sculptors....................................... Stock and bond sales agents............................ 20,099 19,801 18,884 18,178 17,935 17,906 17,833 17,784 17,308 16,863 8.3 13.9 31.9 4.1 10.1 9.3 25.6 40.1 29.7 10.2 Engineers, n e c ................................................... Nursing aides, orderlies..................................... Guards ................................................................ Librarians......................................................... . Computer, peripheral equipment operators...... 16,608 15,474 15,319 15,292 15,140 10.1 14.6 61.3 13.9 12.5 1 1970 Census Population 3-digit occupational title. SOURCE: Current Population Survey. nec = not elsewhere classified. Table 16. Persons obtaining employment by full- or part-time status and occupation, January 1980-81 (Percent) Total Occupational group Full time Part time T otal....................................................... 100.0 66.2 33.8 Professional and technical workers ........ Managers and administrators, except fa rm ......................................................... Sales workers........................................... Clerical workers ....................................... Craft and kindred workers....................... Nontransport operatives .......................... Transport equipment operatives............. Nonfarm laborers..................................... Farmers and farm managers................... Farm laborers and supervisors............... Service workers, except private household............................................... Private household workers...................... 100.0 72.7 27.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 87.1 51.6 64.5 87.4 84.9 76.5 63.5 66.7 59.8 12.9 48.4 35.5 12.6 15.1 23.5 36.5 33.3 40.2 100.0 100.0 43.9 28.2 56.1 71.8 SOURCE: Current Population Survey, January 1981. 20 Table 17. Persons obtaining full- or part-time employment by occupation, January 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational group Total Full time Part time Total....................................................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 Professional and technical workers ....... Managers and administrators, except fa rm ......................................................... Sales workers........................................... Clerical workers ....................................... Craft and kindred workers....................... Nontransport operatives .......................... Transport equipment operatives............. Nonfarm laborers..................................... Farmers and farm managers................... Farm laborers and supervisors............... Service workers, except private household............................................... Private household workers...................... 11.5 12.6 9.3 7.4 7.7 21.7 8.9 11.9 2.8 6.9 .4 1.4 9.7 6.0 21.1 11.8 14.4 3.3 6.6 .4 1.2 2.8 11.0 22.7 3.3 5.0 2.0 7.5 .4 1.6 18.2 2.0 12.1 .9 30.2 4.3 SOURCE: Current Population Survey, January 1981. Table 18. Ranking of occupations by part-time job openings, January 1980-81 Job openings Job openings Occupation 1 Occupation 1 Number Sales clerks, retail trade ........................ Cashiers.................................................. Waiters and waitresses.......................... Cooks, except private household.......... Stockhandlers......................................... Child care workers, private household ... Janitors and sextons.............................. Food counter and fountain workers ...... Secretaries, nec ..................................... Building interior cleaners, n e c ............... Food service workers, nec, except private household ................................. Child care workers, except private household .............................................. Dining room attendants.......................... Miscellaneous clerical workers.............. Nursing aides, orderlies.......................... Dishwashers............................................ Managers and administrators, nec ....... Typists .................................................... Receptionists .......................................... Bookkeepers ........................................... Farm laborers, wage workers................ Garage workers and gas station attendants.............................................. Servants, private household .................. Freight, material handlers ...................... Teacher aides, except monitors............ File clerks................................................ Hucksters and peddlers ......................... Elementary school teachers.................. Guards.................................................... Bus drivers .............................................. Stock clerks, storekeepers .................... Newspaper carriers and vendors........... Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ....................................................... 452,514 411,287 327,156 275,521 229,927 196,553 167,574 151,390 147,396 138,019 Number Percent of total 7.1 6.4 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 119,897 83,183 1.3 78,508 63,215 58,891 58,823 57,156 56,281 55,846 53,804 51,359 1.2 1.0 .9 .9 .9 .9 .9 .8 .8 50,952 50,346 .8 .8 44,727 .7 .7 41,223 40,972 39,366 38,463 37,390 .6 .6 .6 .6 .6 36,314 6 36,040 35,560 35,477 35,079 33,719 33,645 .6 .6 .6 .6 .5 .5 33,519 32,387 .5 .5 30,134 29,210 .5 .5 Not specified laborers ............................ Real estate agents, brokers .................. Demonstrators ........................................ Machine operatives, miscellaneous specified................................................. Preschool and kindergarten teachers .... Delivery and route drivers...................... Estimators and investigators, n e c ......... Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers..... Farmers (owners and tenants).............. Sales workers, retail trade, except clerks..................................................... 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 43,835 Carpenters............................................... Miscellaneous operatives....................... Health aides, except nursing................. Library attendants, assistants................ Secondary school teachers ................... Truck drivers........................................... Packers and wrappers, except meat and produce .......................................... Not specified clerical workers ............... Sales workers, services and construction ........................................... Bartenders............................................... 1.9 109,608 107,296 99,480 96,452 95,346 94,653 94,184 89,331 86,204 Bank tellers............................................. Construction laborers, except carpenter helpers .................................................. Hairdressers and cosmetologists.......... Counter clerks, except food .................. Registered nurses.................................. Attendants, recreation and amusement . Teachers, except college and university, n e c ....................................................... Percent of total 29,040 28,769 27,938 .5 .5 .4 27,728 26,478 25,347 25,310 24,344 23,824 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 .4 22,898 0.4 21,396 .3 21,293 20,314 .3 .3 Athletes and kindred workers................ Housekeepers, except private household .............................................. Recreation workers................................ 1 1980 Census of Population 3-digit occupational title. SOURCE: Current Population Survey. 21 Chapter 4. Employment Patterns in Selected Occupations Chapter 3 discussed occupational movements for broad categories of workers during 1980-81, based on CPS data. This chapter draws upon those data to ana lyze the outlook through 1990 for 55 occupations se lected from those covered in the 1982-83 Occupational Outlook Handbook. The occupations selected represent those with 1980 employment of 50,000 or more for which Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) sur vey-based data and CPS employment data are definitionally consistent. In most cases, employment data presented in this chapter were derived from the OES survey-based ma trix described in appendix A and given in detail in ap pendix C. Sources of employment data other than the OES survey-based matrix are given in footnotes. To calculate 1980-90 average annual openings due to re placement needs, the 1980 CPS occupational replace ment rates were applied to the employment level for the midpoint of the projection period. (See appendix B for a discussion of replacement rates.) The reader is reminded that statistics on graduates or completions of various education and training pro grams generally represent only a fraction of the total nuumber of entrants to most occupations. Therefore, the data on completions of education programs in ap pendix D should not be compared with estimates of to tal openings in this chapter to develop estimates of shortages or surpluses. Such data should only be used in an analytical context to estimate the number of new graduates who could fill job openings. The statements that follow are listed alphabetically and include occupations from most of the major clus ters in the 1980 edition of the Standard Occupational Classification Manual. Each statement first discusses education and training requirements, and then discusses employment patterns indicated by data on the experi ence of workers in 1980. Selected training statistics from appendix D or another source are presented where ap propriate. Information is presented on the job outlook through the 1980’s including projected employment change and, when data permit, supply and demand. Following each analysis is a statistical summary show ing 1980 estimated employment and the ranges pro jected for 1990 employment, percent change over the 1980-90 period, and average annual openings over this period due to growth and replacement needs. Accountants and auditors Training. Most large firms require applicants to have a bachelor’s degree in accounting; some prefer a mas ter’s degree. A growing number of employers prefer applicants who are familiar with computers and their applications in accounting and internal auditing. Certi fication is extremely valuable for professional recogni tion. Training in accounting also is available in junior and community colleges, business schools, and corre spondence schools. Job opportunities, however, for graduates of these 1- and 2-year programs usually are limited to small accounting and business firms. Employment patterns. Job openings for accountants and auditors are projected to average between 104,000 and 115,000 a year through the 1980’s as a result of relatively rapid expansion in employment and the need to replace experienced workers who leave their jobs. Employment of accountants and auditors is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations as businesses, government agencies, and individuals in creasingly rely upon the expertise of accountants to im prove budgeting and accounting procedures and to make financial decisions. Nevertheless, the need to re place accountants who retire or leave their jobs for other reasons is expected to account for about 3 out of 4 openings. Still, replacement needs are a less signifi cant source of job openings for accountants than for most occupations. During 1980, only about 8 percent of all accountants and auditors left the occupation, compared with about 11 percent of all professional and technical workers and 20 percent of all workers. Because most accountants and auditors have invested substantial amounts of time and money in training, they are less inclined to change occupations. Of those who left the labor force, a sub stantial portion assumed household responsibilities or retired. About 60 percent of the job openings for account ants in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. About half had been in school or 22 had household responsibilities; others had been un employed. The remaining openings were filled by per sons who transferred from other occupations—most likely accounting students who worked while attend ing school and qualified accountants who had pursued business, managerial, and other careers. Also, some bookkeepers and accounting clerks advanced to ac counting and auditing positions after meeting the expe rience and education requirements set by their employers. Persons with at least a college degree filled most of the job openings for accountants and auditors in 1980. Other openings were filled by graduates of junior col leges and business and correspondence schools. Accord ing to the National Center for Education Statistics, about 43,000 bachelor’s and 3,500 master’s degrees were awarded in accounting during academic year 1979-80. In addition, nearly 16,000 associate degrees and certifi cates in accounting technologies were conferred. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 897,000 1,124,000 25.3 1,203,000 34.0 104,000 22,000 82,000 to increase about as fast as the average for all occupa tions during the 1980’s. Demand for mechanics is ex pected to increase as more homes and commercial and industrial buildings are constructed and as new en ergy-saving heating and air-conditioning systems are installed in existing homes and buildings. Job openings are projected to average between 33,000 and 36,000 a year during the 1980’s due to the increased demand for these mechanics and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occu pations. About 9 of every 10 job openings are expected to result from replacement needs. About three-fifths of the mechanics who left the oc cupation in 1980 stopped working. Of these, just over one-half became unemployed—reflecting the large pro portion of mechanics in the construction industry, where brief periods of unemployment are common. The re mainder left the labor force, in some cases because of a lack of work. About two-fifths of those who left the trade in 1980 transferred to other occupations. Many probably trans ferred to related trades, such as plumbing and sheet-metal work. Of the 24,000 job openings for air-conditioning, heat ing, and refrigeration mechanics during 1980, 85 per cent were filled by workers who transferred from other occupations. Most of these entrants probably came from related occupations, such as plumber or sheet-metal worker, that provide a useful background in installation and repair. Some of those who transferred may have been experienced air-conditioning, heating, and refrig eration mechanics who had moved into other occupa tions during periods of slack work. Others may have been sales workers employed by distributors of air-con ditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment. A few probably were helpers being trained on the job who moved up the career ladder. Most of the remaining 15 percent of entrants into the occupation were experienced mechanics who had been laid off or had left the labor force because of lack of work. Some entrants were recent graduates of high school or postsecondary vocational programs. A few were older mechanics, many of whom move in and out of the occupation for several years before retiring, usu ally working only part time. 115,000 30,000 85,000 1 Includes accountants and auditors; tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents; and an estimate for college accounting teachers based on data from the Current Population Survey. Air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanics Training. Most air-conditioning, heating, and refrig eration mechanics learn their skills on the job, and the type and length of training are determined by the em ployer. Apprenticeship programs administered by un ions and air-conditioning and heating contractors are a good source of training. Apprentices receive on-the-job training in all aspects of the trade and 144 hours of classroom instruction each year in related subjects, such as the use and care of tools, safety practices, blueprint reading, and air-conditioning theory. Apprenticeships usually last 4 years, although the length varies with the skill of the apprentice. Applicants for apprenticeships must have a high school diploma and pass a mechani cal aptitude test. Many mechanics learn basic air-conditioning, heat ing, and refrigeration work in vocational programs at high schools, private vocational schools, and junior col leges. Although completion of such a program does not assure a job, employers may prefer to hire graduates of these programs, especially those that emphasize hands-on experience, because graduates require less onthe-job training than persons with no training. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 179.000 215.000 19.7 33,000 3,500 29,500 - - - 231,000 28.9 36,000 5,000 31,000 All-round machinists Training. Machinists learn their skills through training on the job. An apprenticeship program which combines Employment patterns. Employment of air-condition ing, heating, and refrigeration mechanics is projected 23 classroom and on-the-job training is the best way to acquire all-round machinist skills. Typical machinist ap prenticeship programs consist of approximately 8,000 hours of on-the-job shop training over a 4-year period and about 570 hours of related classroom instruction. In the shop, apprentices train under experienced workers and learn chipping, filing, tapping, dowel fit ting, riveting, and the operation of various machine tools. In the classroom, they study blueprint reading, mechanical drawing', shop mathematics, and shop practices. A high school or vocational school education, in cluding mathematics, physics, or machine shop train ing, is desirable for entry into an apprenticeship pro gram. Some companies require experienced machinists to take additional courses in mathematics and electronics at company expense to work with newer metalworking technologies, such as numerically controlled machine tools. In addition, equipment builders generally provide training in the electrical, hydraulic, and mechanical as pects of machine-and-control systems. the ranks of the unemployed and one-fifth had been in school—a pattern very similar to that for all craft workers combined. Persons 20-24 years old filled 45 percent of the open ings for all-round machinists. In comparison, persons in this age group filled only about one-fourth of all open ings in craft occupations. Persons who had a high school education or less filled almost three-fourths of all openings for machinists in 1980. About one-fourth of the openings were filled by those with some formal postsecondary education. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 303.000 351.000 15.8 43,000 5,000 38,000 - - - 390,000 28.5 49,000 9,000 40,000 1 Includes machinists and layout markers, metal. Architects Employment patterns. On average, an estimated 43,00049,000 job openings are projected each year during the 1980’s. Growth in employment is projected to be about the same as the average for all occupations. The need to replace machinists who will leave their jobs, how ever, is expected to account for 80-90 percent of the job openings—about the same proportion as in all craft occupations combined. During 1980, 12 percent of all machinists left the oc cupation. This proportion is somewhat lower than that for all craft workers—reflecting the considerable amount of time required to learn this highly skilled oc cupation and the high earnings of machinists compared to those of other skilled workers. Nearly one-half of the machinists who left their jobs transferred to other occupations. Some became highly skilled instrument makers or tool-and-die makers. Of those who left the machinist trade, 30 percent left the labor force alto gether. Like other craft workers, about half were retir ees—age 55 and older. About one-fourth of all machin ists who left the occupation in 1980 became un employed—similar to the pattern for other craft workers. Nearly three-fifths of all job openings for all-round machinists in 1980 were filled by persons who trans ferred from other occupations. These included trained machinists who previously left the occupation to do other work and persons who acquired machinist skills in their former job, such as tool-and-die makers. Also included were semiskilled machine tool operators and workers in other manual occupations who transferred into apprenticeship programs. Persons who had not worked the previous year filled over two-fifths of the openings for machinists in 1980. About half came from 24 Training. All States and the District of Columbia re quire individuals to be licensed before they may call themselves architects or contract to provide architec tural services. Most people qualify for the licensing exam by obtaining at least a Bachelor of Architecture degree followed by 3 years of practical experience in an architect’s office. As a substitute for formal educa tion, most States accept additional experience in an ar chitect’s office, usually 13 years, and successful com pletion of a special qualifying test. Although many ar chitecture school graduates work in the field even though they are not licensed, registered architects are required to take legal responsibility for all their work. Graduate education is desirable for those interested in research and teaching. Employment patterns. Employment of architects is pro jected to rise faster than the average for all workers during the 1980’s, due to increases in new construction, especially nonresidential constrution. Job openings are projected to average between 5,500 and 6,200 a year due to the increased demand for architects and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. Although replacement needs are expected to account for about one-half of all job openings for architects, they should be a much less significant source of openings than in most other occupations. Architects have a very strong attachment to the oc cupation, as indicated by data on the experience of workers in 1980. Only 5 percent of architects left their jobs in 1980, compared to 11 percent of all professional and technical workers and 20 percent of all workers. Of those who left their jobs, one-half left the labor force entirely. Two-thirds of these retired and the remainder returned to school, most likely to get a graduate de gree. Four of every 10 architects who left their jobs transferred to a different occupation. This represents less than 2 percent of all architects in 1980—one-third the transfer rate for all professional and technical workers—and reflects the sizable investment of time and money architects make in training. Of those who did transfer, most moved to related fields such as land scape architecture, interior design, or urban planning, where they could utilize their specialized skills. About 1 out of every 10 architects who left the occupation became unemployed, less than one-half the proportion for all professional workers. During 1980, about 3,800 people took jobs as archi tects. About 86 percent had not been working, a sig nificantly higher proportion than for other professional occupations. Most of these entrants had not been in the labor force; they were primarily recent college gradu ates. This reflects the relatively strict entry requirements for architects. The remaining 14 percent of job openings in 1980 were filled by people who transferred from another oc cupation, one-third the rate for other professional workers. Many of these probably had been employed in another occupation while they pursued a degree in architecture. Others, who already had a degree in ar chitecture, transferred from related occupations such as urban planner, environmental designer, or landscape architect. Some may have worked as drafters or in other occupations in an architect’s office to get the required experience for the licensing examination. This route of entry into the occupation is relatively uncommon, however. Nearly all available jobs were filled by persons un der 35 years of age, a significantly larger proportion of young entrants than for other professional workers. Only about 60 percent of entrants worked full time in 1980, compared to 73 percent for other professional workers. Employment of architects is much more sen sitive to swings in economic conditions than employ ment in most other professional occupations because demand is closely tied to the level of new construction activity. Significant downturns in building activity can temporarily reduce demand for architects, and some jobseekers may be unable to find full-time positions. Architects are expected to face competition for jobs through the 1980’s. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, about 6,900 bachelor’s and master’s degrees were awarded in architecture in academic year 1979-80. As the supply of graduates con tinues to exceed the demand for architects, more jobseekers may be forced to take jobs closely related to architecture where their skills will be utilized. In addi tion, rising competition is expected to make it more dif ficult to become an architect without a degree in architecture. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 80,000 106,000 32.7 5,500 2,600 2,900 _ - 112,000 41.0 - 6,300 3,300 3,000 Assemblers Training. Formal training requirements for assemblers are minimal. A high school diploma is helpful but usu ally is not required. Some employers prefer applicants who have taken vocational school courses such as ma chine shop. Mechanical aptitude and an ability to do routine work at a fast pace are more important than formal training for most assembly jobs. Good eyesight, with or without glasses, may be required for assemblers who work with small parts. Those who assemble elec trical or electronic components with different colored wires must have good color vision. Employment patterns. Employment of assemblers is projected to grow at least as fast as the average for all occupations throughout the 1980’s as manufacturing plants respond to increased demand for consumer goods and for the industrial machinery and equipment needed in an expanding economy. Opportunities are not ex pected to be equally favorable throughout the economy, however, nor are they expected to be uniform through out the period. The job outlook for assemblers will vary with the fortunes of the industries in which they are employed and, during economic downturns, they may face layoffs. Among the largest of all occupations, assembly work provides an unusually large number of job openings. During the 1980’s, openings created by replacement needs and growth in employment are projected to av erage between 365,000 and 400,000 a year. Most open ings are expected to be due to replacement needs. Nearly all assemblers work in manufacturing plants that produce durable goods. During economic down turns such as that of 1980, demand for durable goods declines and output is reduced. In these periods, and also when plants are shut for product changes or re tooling, assemblers are laid off. About one-third of all those who left the occupation in 1980 became un employed. Those seeking their first assembly job may therefore be competing with a large pool of experienced assemblers. In 1980, the proportion of assemblers hired from the ranks of the unemployed was twice that for all occupations. Many assembly jobs are being lost to automation as machine or robot assembly systems are introduced on production lines for products such as washing machines and automobiles. The extent to which automation will displace assemblers—but create jobs for technicians and 25 repairers to build, program, and maintain the new ro bots—is a topic of controversy. Certainly not all assem blers can efficiently be replaced by automation. Robots are expensive and require a large volume of work to justify their purchase. They may not be economical in small operations with perhaps only one shift per day. Also, where the assembly parts involved are small or irregular in size, robot technology is only now begin ning to make inroads. The effect of automation on as sembler employment through the 1980’s is expected to differ among manufacturing industries depending on how rapidly and extensively the technology can be adopted. Opportunities probably will vary geographi cally. Areas of industrial growth such as the Sunbelt States are expected to provide the best prospects. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 1,670,000 1,989,000 19.2 2,183,000 30.9 364,000 32,000 332,000 401,000 51,000 350,000 Automobile body repairers Training. Most automobile body repairers learn the trade on the job. They usually start as helpers and pick up skills from experienced workers. Helpers begin by assisting body repairers in tasks such as removing dam aged parts and installing repaired parts. They learn to remove small dents and to make other minor repairs. They then progress to more difficult tasks such as straightening frames. Generally, 3 to 4 years of on-thejob training are needed to become skilled in all aspects of body repair. Most training authorities recommend a 3- or 4-year formal apprenticeship program as the best way to learn the trade, but relatively few of these pro grams are available. Apprentices spend most of their time learning on the job, but they also attend classes in related subjects such as mathematics, job safety proce dures, and business management. Only about 12 percent of all automobile body re pairers left the occupation during 1980, a much lower proportion than for other workers. Six of every 10 workers who left the occupation became unemployed. Most of these had worked for car and truck dealerships that either went out of business or reduced the size of their service departments because of the dramatic de cline in new car and truck sales during 1980. About 3 of 10 workers who left the occupation dropped out of the labor force. Relatively few transferred to other occupations. Of those persons who took jobs as auto body repairers in 1980, three-fourths transferred from other occupa tions; the remainder had been unemployed or out of the labor force. About 8 percent of all entrants to the occupation were only 16 years of age. Most of these worked part time while they were in high school. In contrast, almost all job entrants over the age of 16 took full-time jobs. Because auto body repair is learned on the job, few entrants to this occupation complete any training be yond high school. Eighty-five percent of all entrants in , 1980 had a high school diploma or less education, a significantly higher proportion than for other craft workers. All those entering the occupation with postsecondary training in 1980 transferred from other occupations. Employment, 1980 ...................... r Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 153.000 189.000 23.1 25,000 4,000 21,000 - - - 201,000 30.8 27,000 5,000 22,000 Automobile mechanics Training. Most people prepare for a career as an auto mobile mechanic by acquiring experience in related lesser skilled occupations such as gasoline station atten dant, lubrication worker, or mechanic’s helper where they have the opportunity to observe and work with experienced mechanics. Many supplement this experi ence by taking automobile repair courses in high schools, trade and vocational schools, community and junior colleges, and the Job Corps. About 100,000 per sons completed education programs in automobile me chanics from these combined sources in 1979-80. How ever, not all planned to become automobile mechanics. Some people pursued an interest in automobile me chanics simply as a hobby; some planned to become truck and bus mechanics, automotive body repairers, or automobile repair service estimators. Many training authorities believe apprenticeship provides the most thorough preparation for a career in automobile me chanics. However, fewer than 1,500 persons completed formal registered apprenticeship programs in auto mobile mechanics in 1979. Employment patterns. Employment of automobile body repairers is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through the 1980’s as the number of motor vehicles damaged in traffic grows. Accidents are expected to increase as the number of motor vehicles increases, although better highways, driver training courses, and improved bumpers and safety features on new vehicles may slow the rate of increase. Job openings are projected to average between 25,000 and 27,000 a year during the 1980’s due to the increased demand for automobile body repairers and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or trans fer to other occupations. Replacement needs are ex pected to account for about 85 percent of all openings, less than for other craft workers. 26 Employers generally prefer to hire high school gradu ates with manual dexterity, mechanical aptitude, and thorough knowledge of automotive systems. Ability to reliably perform at least the simpler automobile service and repair tasks quickly and efficiently and to under stand technical repair manuals, parts catalogs, and serv ice orders is essential. Training acquired in the Armed Forces is very useful. G r o w t h ............................................... R e p la c e m e n t .................................... Nearly 6 out of 10 job openings for mechanics in 1980 were filled by persons who were not working the previous year. About 44 percent of these individuals had been unemployed—somewhat less than the propor tion for all craft workers and for all mechanics and re pairers. A higher than average proportion—33 per cent—of those not working had been in school the year before, reflecting the attractiveness of automobile me chanic careers to younger workers, as well as the wide spread availability of vocational training in this field. About 4 out of 10 entrants into the occupation in 1980 transferred from other fields of work—about the aver age for all occupations. Employment patterns. Between 55,000 and 58,000 job openings for bank officers and managers are projected annually through the 1980’s due to faster than average employment growth and the need to replace experi enced bank officers who transfer to other jobs or stop working. Expanded banking services and the increased dependence on computers should increase the need for bank officers and managers to provide sound manage ment. Greater international trade and investment should create new opportunities in both international and do mestic banking activities. While replacement needs are expected to account for 4 out of 5 jobs, they are a less significant source of job openings than for all managers or for all occupations combined. Like other managers, bank officers and managers have a relatively strong attachment to their occupation. D ur ing 1980, less than 10 percent of bank officers and man agers left the occupation, compared to 20 percent for all occupations. Over half of those who left transferred to other jobs—most likely to closely related positions in other areas of finance or to positions within other industries that need individuals with banking experi ence. Over one-quarter left the labor force alto gether—mostly to retire or assume household duties. Automobile mechanic jobs generally do not require education beyond high school. Of those who entered the occupation in 1980, 87 percent had a high school education or less. Most of those who got jobs as auto mobile mechanics, however, did not enter directly from school. Slightly more than half of those who found work as automobile mechanics in 1980 were under 25 years of age. In comparison, less than 40 percent of all individuals entering craft jobs were under 25 years of age. - 1,120,000 32.9 146,800 - 27,800 131,000 Training. Bank officer and management positions are filled by management trainees, and by the promotion of outstanding bank clerks or tellers. College gradua tion usually is required for management trainees. A business administration major in finance or a liberal arts curriculum, including accounting, economics, commer cial law, political science, and statistics, serves as excel lent preparation for officer trainee positions. A Master of Business Administration (MBA) in addition to a so cial science bachelor’s degree, which some employers prefer, may provide an even stronger educational foun dation. However, the larger banks do hire people with diverse backgrounds such as chemical engineering, nu clear physics, and forestry to meet the needs of the complex, high-technology industries with which they deal. Students can gain valuable experience through summer or part-time employment programs. Advancement of a bank clerk or teller to an officer or management position may come slowly in small banks where the number of positions is limited. In large banks that have special training programs, promotion may oc cur more quickly. For a senior officer position, how ever, an employee usually needs many years of experi ence. Advancement may be accelerated by special study through courses offered by local colleges and univer sities and the American Bankers Association. In 1980, 17 percent of all automobile mechanics left their jobs—roughly the same proportion as for other craft workers. Of these, 52 percent transferred to other occupations, 26 percent became unemployed, and 22 percent left the labor force. Two-fifths of the mechanics who left the labor force were persons 55 and older who presumably retired. 845,000 1,050,000 24.4 - Bank officers and managers Employment patterns. Job opportunities for automobile mechanics are expected to be good throughout the 1980’s due to the large number of openings that will occur and the absence of rigid entry requirements. Job openings for mechanics are projected to average be tween 147,000 and 159,000 annually during the 1980’s. Employment of mechanics is expected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations as the number of motor vehicles in operation increases. Replacements, however, are expected to be the main source of jobs, accounting for 6 out of every 7 openings during the decade. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 ..... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... 2 0 ,6 0 0 126,200 158,800 27 at a rate faster than the average for all occupations as banks expand services. Nevertheless, the need to re place experienced tellers who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for 9 out of 10 job openings—about the same proportion as for all clerical occupations combined. During 1980, 21 percent of bank tellers left the oc cupation, about the same proportion as for all clerical occupations. About two-thirds transferred to other jobs. This job may serve as a stepping stone to bank officer and manager positions. Outstanding tellers who have had some college or specialized training offered by the banking industry, such as courses offered by the Ameri can Bankers Association, are particularly attractive can didates for promotion. Other tellers probably transfer to clerical positions in other industries, such as manu facturing or wholesale trade, that pay higher salaries than banks. Over one-quarter of all bank tellers who left the oc cupation in 1980 stopped working altogether. Nearly three-fifths assumed household duties—almost double the proportion who left their jobs for this reason among all workers. Over 90 percent of all bank tellers are women. During 1980, persons transferring from other occu pations filled about 55 percent of all job openings for bank tellers. In comparison, persons who transferred filled about 45 percent of all job openings in clerical occupations. Some who transferred into positions as tellers probably had held other bank clerical jobs— banks encourage movement among clerical personnel. About 45 percent of all job openings for bank tellers in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. About 40 percent had left household re sponsibilities while another 30 percent had been in school. Persons with a high school education or less filled about three-fifths of all job openings for tellers in 1980. compared to two-thirds of the openings in all clerical occupations combined. Persons with some college edu cation filled nearly 30 percent of the job openings, while college graduates filled only 10 percent of the jobs. Persons 16-24 years old filled nearly three-fifths of all openings for tellers, compared to less than half of the job openings in all clerical occupations. Over one-quarter of all job openings for tellers in 1980 were part-time positions. Persons who had not worked the previous year filled more part-time jobs than those who transferred from other occupations. During 1980, persons transferring from other occu pations filled about two-thirds of all job openings for bank officers and managers. This pattern is similar to that for other managers but differs significantly from the average for all occupations; persons who transferred filled only 43 percent of all openings. Banks often seek individuals with banking experience—bank clerks and tellers who have demonstrated the potential for in creased responsibilities, including those who worked as clerks or tellers while attending school—and persons with specialized experience in other fields. About 45 percent of those who transferred were 25-34 years old; the same proportion were college graduates. Nearly one-third of all job openings for bank officers in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. About half had been in school or had household responsibilities. Over half of all bank officers who had not worked the previous year were 20-24 years old, while nearly two-thirds were college graduates. College graduates filled half of all job openings for bank officers in 1980, compared to 29 percent for all managers and only 14 percent for all occupations. Per sons with some college education filled nearly one-fifth of all bank officer jobs; those with a high school edu cation or less filled about one-third of the openings. Virtually all job openings for bank officers and man agers in 1980 were full-time positions, compared to 87 percent of the openings for all managers and only 66 percent of the openings for all occupations. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 406,000 513,000 26.3 - 538,000 32.5 55,000 11,000 44,000 - 58,000 13,000 45,000 - ' Includes managers, officials, and proprietors employed banking and credit agencies. Bank tellers Training. Bank tellers are trained on the job. Training may last from a few days to several weeks or longer. New tellers usually observe experienced workers for a few days before doing the work themselves. Beginners usually start as commercial tellers; in large banks which have a separate savings teller’s “cage,” they may start as savings tellers. Banks often train tellers for other clerical duties at the same time. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... Employment patterns. Persons seeking bank teller po sitions should have good employment prospects throughout the 1980’s in view of the large number of projected job openings—between 125,000 and 129,000 annually. Employment of tellers is projected to grow 28 480.000 601.000 25.1 125,000 12,000 113,000 _ - - - 619,000 28.9 129,000 14,000 115,000 G r o w th ............................................... R e p la c e m e n t .................................... Barbers Training. All States require barbers to be licensed. In general, applicants must have graduated from a State-ap proved barber school and be at least 16 years old. Eight States require a high school diploma. Many States re quire beginners to obtain an apprenticeship license, and then work for 1 or 2 years before taking the written and practical examination for a license as a registered barber. Barber training programs usually last 9 to 12 months. Most are trade school programs, although some public high schools offer barbering in their vocational education programs. Because some States do not rec ognize out-of-State training, apprenticeship work, or li censes, persons who wish to become barbers should re view the laws of the State in which they wish to work before entering barber school. 112,000 120,000 7.3 3,800 - _ - 2 ,5 0 0 3,200 Bookkeepers and accounting clerks Training. High school graduates who have taken busi ness arithmetic, bookkeeping, and principles of account ing meet the minimum requirements for most bookkeep ing jobs. Many employers prefer applicants who have completed business courses at a community or junior college or business school. Employment patterns. The job outlook for bookkeepers and accounting clerks is expected to be good through out the 1980’s due to the widespread availability of jobs, the high rate of turnover, and the relative ease of entry into this occupation. The anticipated growth in the volume of business ac tivity is expected to cause employment of bookkeepers and accounting clerks to grow about as fast as the av erage for all occupations. This growth and the need to replace employees are projected to create between 370,000 and 400,000 job openings for bookkeeping and accounting clerks annually during the 1980’s. Few oc cupations are expected to provide more job openings. Replacement needs are expected to account for 9 out of 10 openings. About 19 percent of all bookkeepers and accounting clerks left their jobs in 1980—about the same propor tion as for all occupations, but slightly less than for all clerical workers. A larger than average proportion—52 percent—dropped out of the labor force, most to as sume homemaking responsibilities. Persons who trans ferred to other occupations accounted for two-fifths of all those who left their jobs—less than the average for all occupations as well as for all clerical workers. Rela tively few bookkeepers and accounting clerks became unemployed. Jobs as bookkeepers and accounting clerks are pre dominantly held by women. The pattern of movement in the occupation is typically from work to family re sponsibilities and back to work again. In 1980, 54 per cent of all job openings in the occupation were filled by persons who were outside the labor force the pre vious year. Nearly 70 percent were homemakers—a considerably higher proportion than average. In general, those entering bookkeeping jobs were older than average. Two-thirds of all entrants in 1980 were 25 years or older, compared to only about onehalf of all entrants to clerical occupations and to the work force as a whole. Nearly 3 out of every 10 entrants into bookkeeping jobs in 1980 took part-time positions. Those coming from outside the labor force—primarily home makers—were more likely to take part-time jobs than those transferring from other occupations. Women who Employment patterns. Between 4,000 and 6,000 job openings are projected to arise each year during the 1980-90 period, significantly fewer than the number of openings for most occupations. Replacements for expe rienced barbers who stop working are expected to ac count for most openings. The rest will result from em ployment growth, which is projected to occur at a slower rate than the average for all occupations. The employment decline of the last decade, caused by the fashion for longer hair, is expected to end, and demand for barbers should be stimulated by population growth and the continued popularity of hairstyling. Barbers have a strong attachment to their occupa tion, especially compared to other service workers. Once having entered the occupation, most barbers stay in it until they retire. One reason for this is that most barbers own their own shops. The high degree of oc cupational attachment is striking considering the edu cational investment—less than a year of postsecondary training. Approximately 5,000 people completed barber school in 1980, according to the National Association of Bar ber Schools, and several hundred more completed reg istered apprenticeships. The very limited data available suggest that most graduates subsequently became li censed and entered the occupation. However, some bar ber school graduates were already employed as cosme tologists; operators in “unisex” salons generally find it advantageous to hold both licenses. A few barber school graduates were licensed barbers who needed formal training in order to practice in a different State (al though reciprocity agreements have eliminated the need for this in many places), and some were inmates of prisons, reformatories, and other institutions. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... 800 3 ,000 137,000 22.4 5,700 29 combine parental and job responsibilities probably pre fer part-time work when they first return to work. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 1,715,000 1,975,000 15.2 2,123,400 23.8 373,000 26,000 347,000 401,000 41,000 360,000 Bricklayers and stonemasons Training. Most bricklayers and some stonemasons ac quire their skills informally by working as helpers and laborers and by observing and learning from experi enced workers. The remainder learn the craft through 3-year apprenticeships, which usually are sponsored by local contractors or local union-management commit tees, or both. In addition to on-the-job training, appren ticeship programs generally require 144 hours of class room instruction each year in subjects such as blueprint reading, mathematics, layout work, and sketching. A high school or vocational school diploma is preferred but not required. In 1979-80, nearly 9,500 individuals completed pub lic or private vocational education programs in masonry occupations. Many employers prefer to hire people who have completed such programs because they impart ba sic skills and provide an introduction to the trade. Ap proximately 1,000 youths completed Job Corps train ing in 1979-80, and nearly 1,100 apprentices completed registered programs in bricklaying, stonemasonry, or tile setting in 1979. Another 2,000 cancelled their ap prenticeship that year. Some may have left before com pleting the program because of an opportunity to work at the craft level. Others may have acquired enough experience to enter the occupation at another time. of construction activity. Temporary layoffs when busi ness is slack, and periods of not working when a project ends, are commonplace for construction workers. D ur ing economic downturns such as that of 1980, layoffs are not only frequent but extended. Three out of 4 bricklayers and stonemasons who left the occupation in 1980 became unemployed or left the labor force. The rest transferred to other occupations. Compared to all other workers, however, bricklayers and stonemasons who left the occupation in 1980 were less likely to have taken another kind of job or to have left the labor force. They were 3 times as likely to have become unemployed. Most of the bricklayers and stonemasons who stopped working during 1980 were in their prime working years, age 25 to 54, and would be likely to reenter the occu pation as soon as jobs became available. Approximately 20 percent of those who stopped working were age 55 or above. Some of those eligible for pension income might have decided to retire, but an economic upturn would probably lead others to return to work, on a part-time basis at least. Of those who obtained bricklaying and stonemasonry jobs during 1980, 3 out of 4 had been unemployed or had worked in another occupation during the previous year. Very few jobs were available in either craft for young, inexperienced workers. People between 16 and 19 years of age filled more than 20 percent of all job openings in the economy in 1980. Individuals in that age group filled little more than 5 percent of the open ings in bricklaying and stonemasonry. Because so many experienced bricklayers and stonemasons are available to start work, individuals attempting to enter these crafts for the first time are likely to encounter keen competi tion, at least until construction activity picks up con siderably. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... Employment patterns. Employment of bricklayers and stonemasons is projected to grow faster than the aver age for all occupations during the 1980’s, although stonemasonry may not grow quite as rapidly as brickmasonry. The volume of new construction is expected to increase because of population growth and business expansion, spurring demand for bricklayers in particu lar. The growing use of brick for interior load-bearing walls and for decorative work on building fronts and in lobbies and foyers is also expected to stimulate demand. Employment growth and replacement needs are pro jected to provide between 38,000 and 40,000 job open ings annually during the 1980’s. Replacement needs are expected to account for more than 4 out of 5 openings, roughly the same proportion as that for all craft workers. Brickmasonry and stonemasonry, like the other build ing trades, are highly sensitive to changes in the level 1 Includes brickmasons, stonemasons. 163.000 224.000 37.5 38,000 6,000 32,000 refractory materials - - - 241,000 47.8 41,000 8,000 33,000 repairers, and Business machine repairers Training. The amount of formal education required for an entry job as a business machine repairer varies widely among employers. Many employers hire appli cants with a high school education, while some require at least 1 year of technical training in basic electricity or electronics. Electronics training received in the Armed Forces also is valuable. Related experience is helpful, and many workers transfer from other jobs. 30 Employment patterns. Job prospects for business ma chine repairers should be excellent through the 1980’s. Employment is projected to grow much faster than the average for all occupations as businesses and govern ment agencies buy more machines to handle a growing volume of paperwork. Between 12,000 and 13,000 job openings are projected each year due to the increased demand for business machine repairers and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or trans fer to other occupations. Although replacement needs are expected to account for three-fourths of job open ings for repairers, they are a much less significant source of openings than in other craft occupations. In 1980, about 13 percent of all business machine re pairers left their jobs, slightly less than the proportion of other craft workers or of all mechanics and repairers. More than two-fifths of those who left the occupation transferred to other occupations—such as data process ing machine repairer or manufacturer’s sales worker. A few probably advanced to manager of a service repair department. About 3 of every 10 repairers who left their jobs in 1980 became unemployed. Most of those who lost their jobs were below the age of 25 and had no training beyond high school; employers lay off their least experienced and productive workers when they reduce the number of people in their service depart ments. About one-quarter of those who left their jobs dropped out of the labor force—many of these returned to school. Seven of every 10 job openings for business machine repairers in 1980 were filled by experienced workers who transferred from other occupations. Many of those who transferred probably worked in related occupa tions where they serviced mechanical and electronic equipment such as home appliances, automotive elec trical systems, and radio and television equipment. Most of the remaining job openings were filled by persons who had been unemployed. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 55.000 89.000 59.8 _ 12,000 3,500 8,500 - - - field of study and train them on the job. Many stores have 6- to 8-month programs for buyer trainees. They combine classroom instruction in merchandising and purchasing with short rotations to various jobs in the store. This training introduces the new worker to store operations and policies, and to the fundamentals of mer chandising and management. Most trainees begin as as sistant buyers; they usually work as assistants for at least a year before becoming buyers. Employment patterns. Employment of buyers is pro jected to grow about as fast as the average for all oc cupations through the 1980’s as the retail trade indus try expands in response to a growing population and higher personal incomes. Between 26,000 and 28,000 job openings are projected each year due to the in creased demand for buyers and the need to replace ex perienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. Replacement needs are expected to be the major source of jobs for buyers during the 1980’s, accounting for more than 8 of 10 openings. Competi tion for jobs as buyers is expected to be keen because merchandising attracts many college graduates. During 1980, about 15 percent of all buyers left the occupation, compared to 12 percent of all managers. Nearly 6 of every 10 buyers who left transferred to other occupations. Some were experienced buyers who probably advanced to merchandise manager or to an executive job such as general merchandise manager for a store or chain. Three of every 10 buyers who left their jobs dropped out of the labor force, either to take up household responsibilities or to retire. One buyer in 8 became unemployed. About 7 of every 10 job openings for buyers in 1980 were filled by workers who transferred from other oc cupations. Many of these workers probably had expe rience in retail sales, which is valuable to buyers be cause they must be familiar with merchandise and shop pers’ preferences. About one-fourth of all job openings were filled by people who had not worked the previous year; one-half of them were college graduates. 96,000 73.5 Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 13,000 4,000 9,000 Buyers Training. An increasing number of employers prefer applicants who have a college degree. Many colleges and universities offer associate degree or bachelor’s de gree programs in marketing and purchasing. Related experience also is valuable, and many people transfer into the occupation. While courses in merchandising or marketing may help in getting started in retailing, they are not essen tial. Most employers accept college graduates in any 149.000 178.000 19.7 26,000 3,000 23,000 - - - 190,000 27.4 28,000 4,000 24,000 1 Includes only buyers employed in retail trade. Carpenters Training. Carpenters learn their trade on the job. Many pick up their skills by working as a helper to an expe rienced carpenter; however, some participate in struc tured training programs run by their employer. Most training authorities recommend completion of an ap 31 prenticeship because it includes training in all the skills of the trade. These programs are administered by local union-management committees and local contractors’ associations. Apprenticeship consists of 4 years of onthe-job training and a minimum of 144 hours of related classroom instruction each year. However, apprentices can complete the program in less than 4 years if they can demonstrate mastery of the required skills. A high school or vocational school education that includes courses in carpentry, shop, mechanical draw ing, and general mathematics is desirable. Seven of every 10 job openings during 1980 were filled by people who had not been working the pre vious year. Fifty-five percent of these had been un employed—many were experienced carpenters who had been laid off. The rest were labor force entrants or re entrants. Some had been in school. Most, however, had dropped out of the labor force temporarily waiting for jobs to became available. One-third of all job openings for carpenters in 1980 were filled by transfers from other occupations. People entering the occupation should expect to ex perience periods of unemployment between jobs. Be cause many people are qualified for and seek carpentry jobs, competition may exist for the highest paying jobs, even when construction activity is high. Carpenters can improve their chances of getting a steady, year-round job by acquiring all-round skills. Employment patterns. Employment of carpenters is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through the 1980’s. In the long run, construction activity should increase in response to in creasing demand for new housing and industrial plants and as existing industrial plants are renovated to make them more productive and energy efficient. Prospects for people wishing to become carpenters generally are expected to be good because of the many job openings created by growth and replacement needs. Between 180,000 and 195,000 jobs are projected to be available each year due to increased demand for car penters and the need to replace carpenters who leave their jobs. Nine of every 10 job openings for carpenters through the 1980’s are expected to result from replace ment needs. Nearly 25 percent of all carpenters left their jobs in 1980, a higher proportion than for other construction trades. About 9 percent of all carpenters transferred to other occupations, also a higher proportion than for other construction crafts. The lower than average at tachment to the occupation reflects the comparative ease of entry. Many people take jobs as carpenters with no intention to making it a career and then transfer to other jobs after a short time. However, some experi enced carpenters enter other occupations when carpen try work is unavailable. Eight percent of all carpenters became unemployed during 1980, nearly twice the proportion for other craft occupations. This reflects the short-term nature of many construction projects—particularly in residential build ing, where many carpenters are employed—as well as the impact of cyclical fluctuations in the economy. The large proportion of carpenters who become unemployed means that there usually is a supply of experienced car penters available. About 6 percent of all carpenters left the labor force during 1980. Some returned to school, but most retired. About one-half of those age 55 and older who left the labor force had worked part time, possibly indicating that some carpenters gradually reduce the number of hours they work until they finally retire. Many carpen ters who left the labor force did so temporarily and will later reenter the occupation. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 970,000 1,143,000 17.9 1,230,000 27.0 180,000 17,000 163,000 195,000 26,000 169,000 Cashiers Training. Employers hire individuals without any work experience for many cashier jobs. They prefer those who are high school graduates. Many public school vocational programs offer cashier training. Courses in business arithmetic, bookkeeping, typing, and selling are useful for this work. However, new cashiers usually receive on-the-job training. In large firms, cashiers often receive classroom instruction in the use of electronic or computerized registers and in other phases of a cashier’s work. In smaller ones, they are trained by an experienced worker. Employers look for persons who are able to do repetitious work accu rately, have a high degree of eye-hand coordination, and have an aptitude for working with figures. Employment patterns. Job openings for cashiers are ex pected to be plentiful during the 1980’s due to the rela tively high rate of turnover in the occupation. Between 650,000 and 680,000 jobs are projected to be available annually—among the highest for any occupation. Al though employment is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations, 9 out of 10 job open ings are expected to result from a need to replace peo ple who transfer to other occupations or stop working. Cashiering jobs generally require little or no experi ence and little education; most are part time. Therefore, they attract people who want to gain work experience, or to earn money while in school or while tending to household responsibilities. Data on the experience of workers in 1980 indicate that cashiers have very little 32 Applicants generally must be high school graduates and in good physical condition. Training in mathematics and English, especially spelling, is useful. Printing and typing courses in vocational or high schools are good preparation, and a general background in electronics and photography is becoming increasingly useful. Many technical institutes, junior colleges, and colleges offer courses in printing technology which provide a valu able background. Persons with good typing skills can learn to be photo typesetting machine operators in a relatively short pe riod of time. These workers need not be trained as skilled compositors, but they must be familiar with printing terms and measures. labor force or job attachment. The separation rate for cashiers is one of the highest among all occupations. About 1 out of every 3 cashiers left the occupation in 1980—more than one and one-half times the rate for all workers. About 14 percent of all cashiers left the labor force during 1980, a much higher rate than for individuals in most other occupations. Most became full-time home makers or returned to school. Since this occupation consists primarily of. young workers, relatively few cashiers retired or stopped working because of disabil ity. Another 14 percent of all cashiers transferred to other occupations, also a much higher than average rate. About 4 percent of all cashiers became unemployed in 1980. About 70 percent of those who entered the occupa tion during 1980 had not been working the previous year. One-fifth had been unemployed. The rest were mainly persons 19 or younger who had been in school and persons 25 and older who had been involved with household responsibilities. About one-half of all job openings for cashiers in 1980 were filled by persons who were 19 years or younger, and almost three-quarters were 24 years or younger. Tw o out of every 3 job openings were parttime positions. Persons who had not been working the previous year exhibited a much greater tendency to take part-time work than those who were transferring from other occupations. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 1,592,000 2,045,000 28.4 2,163,000 35.8 648,000 45,000 603,000 Employment patterns. Despite growth in the volume of printing, employment of compositors and typesetters is projected to decline through the 1980’s as high-speed phototypesetting machines and typesetting computers increasingly displace the traditional hot-metal method of typesetting, which requires more operators. Conse quently, many monotype and linotype operators have been retrained as phototypesetting operators in recent years. Nevertheless, between 21,000 and 22,000 job openings are projected each year through 1990 to re place experienced workers who change occupations or stop working. In 1980, about 17 percent of all compositors and typesetters left their jobs, a proportion similar to that for craft occupations as a group. Nearly half of them transferred to other occupations—most likely to grow ing printing occupations such as lithographer or print ing press operator or to other skilled or semiskilled jobs. Over half left the labor force altogether or became un employed. Of those compositors and typesetters who stopped working, almost one-third assumed household responsibilities—nearly 5 times the proportion who left their job for this reason among all craft workers. This pattern reflects the relatively large proportion of women in this occupation compared to other craft occupations. Over 70 percent of those who entered the occupa tion during 1980 transferred from other jobs. In com parison, only 53 percent of all craft jobs were filled by transfer. Many of those who transferred probably were secretaries and typists who were highly qualified to be come phototypesetting machine operators and who were attracted to the occupation by higher wages. About 30 percent of the jobs were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. Of these, 36 percent had household responsibilities. In comparison, of all persons who entered craft occupations in 1980 and who had not worked the previous year, only 7 per cent had household duties—again reflecting the rela tively high proportion of women in this craft occupation. 679,000 57,000 622,000 Compositors and typesetters Training. In the past, almost all compositors were trained through some type of apprenticeship program. However, in recent years, the introduction of new tech nology has reduced the demand for all-round skilled compositors. As a result, more and more compositors are bypassing the traditional apprentice approach and are learning the work on the job. In large companies, persons who want to become all round compositors generally are trained through an ap prenticeship program. Most of those programs empha size training in the operation of phototypesetting ma chines and in photocomposition work. Generally, ap prenticeship covers a 4-year period of training supple mented. by classroom instruction or correspondence courses. However, this period may be shortened by as much as 2 1/2 years for persons who have had previous experience or schooling or who show the ability to learn the trade more rapidly. 33 Over half of those persons who took jobs as com positors and typesetters in 1980 were 20-24 years of age—double the proportion of jobs filled by persons in this age bracket for all craft workers or all occupations combined. Seventy percent of all jobs for compositors and typesetters in 1980 were filled by persons with a high school education or less. One-fourth of those who took jobs in this occupation had some postsecondary educa tion. Relatively few openings were filled by college graduates. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90' ......................................... Decline ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 128,000 116,000 -9.6 21,200 (-1,200) 21,200 - - - turn to school. Relatively few operators became unemployed. Six of every 10 job openings for computer operators during 1980 were filled by experienced workers who transferred from other occupations; this was a signifi cantly higher proportion than for all clerical jobs. Many jobs were filled by secretaries, typists, bookkeepers, and others familiar with various kinds of office equipment. Most of those who transferred into the occupation were under the age of 35 and had a high school education or less. Four of every 10 entrants had not worked the pre vious year. Most had not been in the labor force the previous year—primarily persons who had assumed family responsibilities or had been in school. Home makers who entered the occupation tended to be older than other entrants—almost all were over 25—reflecting the tendency of many women to wait until their child ren are in school before they go back to work. Most of these entrants had a high school education or less. In contrast, computer operators who had been in school the previous year tended to be younger—almost all were under 25—and more than one-third had some training beyond high school. 125,000 -2.4 22,100 (-300) 22,100 1 Data on the decline in employment are presented in parentheses for information only, since replacement needs are the sole source o f openings. See appendix B. Computer operators Training. Most employers require computer operators to have a high school education or specialized training or experience. Many prefer to hire computer operators who have had some community or junior college train ing, especially in data processing. Many employers test applicants to determine their aptitude for computer work, particularly their ability to reason logically. Prior experience is important, and many workers transfer into this occupation. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .....Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 233.000 387.000 65.8 67,000 15,000 52,000 - - - 412,000 76.6 72,000 18,000 54,000 1 Includes computer operators and peripheral ED P equipment operators. Employment patterns. Employment of computer op erators is projected to rise much faster than the aver age for all occupations through the 1980’s because of the increasing use of computers. Between 67,000 and 72,000 job openings are expected to be available each year during the 1980’s due to the increased demand for computer operators and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occu pations. Although replacement needs are expected to account for three-fourths of all openings, they are a much less significant source of openings than for all clerical workers. During 1980, 17 percent of all employed computer operators left the occupation. In comparison, 22 per cent of all clerical workers left their occupation. This relative stability is due to a shortage of experienced op erators and reflects the relatively high earnings of these workers. Nearly three-fifths of those who left the oc cupation transferred to other occupations. One-fourth of them advanced to computer programmer, another data processing occupation experiencing a shortage of skilled workers. Some operators left the labor force, mostly to take up household responsibilities or to re Computer service technicians Training. Most employers require applicants for entry jobs as computer service technicians to have completed 1 to 2 years of post-high school training in basic elec tronics or electrical engineering at a vocational school, junior college, or university. Many employers also con sider basic electronics training provided by the Armed Forces excellent preparation. Related work experience also is valuable preparation, and many technicians trans fer from another occupation. Regardless of background, newly hired workers can expect some on-the-job train ing in order to learn their employer’s system. Employment patterns. Job prospects should be excel lent through the 1980’s. Employment of computer serv ice technicians is projected to rise much faster than the average for all occupations through the 1980’s as the number of computers in operation continues to increase. Demand for technicians is expected to rise even faster than the increase in the number of computers as com puter equipment becomes more decentralized. In addi tion to job openings created by rapid growth in demand 34 for computer service technicians, many openings are projected to arise as employers replace workers who transfer to another occupation or leave the labor force. Data on the experience of workers in 1980 indicate that technicians have a strong attachment to their oc cupation. In fact, the separation rate for technicians is one of the lowest among all workers. Therefore, al though replacement needs are expected to account for 6 of every 10 openings, they are a much less significant source of openings than in most occupations. Only about 1 computer service technician in 20 trans ferred to a different occupation in 1980, well below the proportion for most occupations. Relatively few be came unemployed—only about 1 in 100. This pattern reflects the fact that these workers are in a rapidly growing field that offers many opportunities for ad vancement, high earnings, and good working condi tions. Retirements also were uncommon—about 2 in 100—reflecting the low average age in this relatively new occupation. About 6 of every 10 openings for computer service technicians in 1980 were filled by workers in their midto late 20’s who had worked for several years in an other occupation. Occupations that require a knowl edge of electronics and provide a good background for computer service technicians are business machine re pairer, television service technician, and engineering technician. A signficiant number of openings, however, were filled by recent graduates of electronics training programs offered in 2-year postsecondary schools. Some entered the occupation from military service, where they had received electronics training and work experience. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 83,000 160,000 93.3 19,000 8,000 11,000 _ - - - Only a short period of training or experience is re quired to become an assistant or fry cook, but many years are necessary to achieve the level of skill required of an executive chef or cook in a fine restaurant. Even though a high school diploma is not required for be ginning jobs, it is recommended for those planning a career as a cook or chef. Also, many courses in com mercial food preparation are open only to high school graduates. Employment patterns. Between 399,000 and 417,000 jobs for cooks and chefs are projected to be available each year through the 1980’s. Small restaurants, school cafeterias, and other eating places with simple food preparation should provide the greatnest number of job openings for cooks. Employment of cooks and chefs is projected to grow about as fast as the average for all oc cupations as the population expands and people dine out more. However, the need to replace experienced cooks and chefs who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for more than 9 out of 10 job openings—similar to the proportion for all oc cupations combined. The separation rate for cooks and chefs is one of the highest among all workers. About 30 percent of all cooks and chefs left their jobs in 1980, compared to only 20 percent of all workers combined. However, patterns most likely differ among cooks in various em ployment settings. Institutional cooks and restaurant cooks probably remain in their occupation in higher proportions than short order and specialty fast-food cooks. Nearly half of all cooks and chefs who left their jobs transferred to other occupations, about 40 percent left the labor force, and the remainder became un employed. Of those who stopped working, over 35 per cent assumed household duties; over 20 percent left to go to school—nearly double the proportion who left their jobs for this reason among all workers. Similar to all service workers, except private house hold workers, only about 30 percent of those who en tered the occupation during 1980 transferred from other jobs—compared to well over 40 percent for all workers. Over 70 percent of those who entered the occupation had not worked the previous year, primarily young stu dents working to earn spending money or money for school and older homemakers working to supplement family income. Of these cooks and chefs who were not working the previous year, about one-third had been in school (virtually all were less than 25 years old) and nearly 30 percent had household responsibilities (nearly all were over 25 years old, primarily in the 35-54 age range). About 16 percent of those who entered the oc cupation in 1980 were 15 years old—triple the propor tion for all occupations combined. Overall, about 50 percent of the job openings for cooks and chefs in 1980 were filled by persons who were 15-19 years old, com 176,000 112.4 21,000 9,000 12,000 Cooks and chefs Training. Many cooks begin as kitchen helpers, and acquire their skills on the job. An increasing number obtain training in commercial food preparation through high school or post-high school vocational programs or community colleges. Cooks and chefs are also trained in apprenticeship programs offered by professional as sociations and trade unions, and in 3-year apprentice ship programs administered by local offices of the American Culinary Federation in cooperation with lo cal employers and junior colleges or vocational educa tion institutions. In addition, some large hotels and res taurants operate their own training programs for new employees. The Armed Forces also are a good source of training and experience. 35 pared to 36 percent for all service workers, except pri vate household workers, and 22 percent for all occu pations combined. Entrance requirements in this occupation are mini mal; individuals with a high school education or less filled 85 percent of the job openings in 1980, compared to 67 percent for all occupations combined. About 13 percent had completed some postsecondary education; relatively few jobs were filled by college graduates. Nearly two-thirds of the job openings for cooks and chefs in 1980 were part time, compared to only onethird of the openings for all occupations combined. Per sons who had not worked the previous year, including those age 15, filled about three-fourths of these parttime jobs for cooks and chefs. The availability of parttime jobs that do not interfere with other responsibili ties makes this occupation attractive to students and homemakers. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 1,122,000 1,365,000 21.6 399,000 24,000 375,000 - “ - - 1,437,000 28.0 417,000 31,000 386,000 1 Includes institutional cooks, restaurant cooks, and short order and specialty fast-food cooks. Cosmetologists Training. All States require cosmetologists to be li censed. Most require applicants to be at least 16 years old and pass a physical examination. Some States re quire a high school diploma. Successful completion of a State-approved cosmetology course is appropriate preparation for the State licensing examination. In some States, completion of an apprenticeship program can substitute for graduation from cosmetology school, but few cosmetologists learn their skills this way. Both pub lic and private vocational schools offer training in cos metology. A daytime course usually takes 6 months to 1 year; an evening course takes longer. An apprentice ship generally lasts 1 or 2 years. Employment patterns. Between 77,000 and 90,000 job openings are projected each year during the 1980-90 period. Replacements for cosmetologists who stop working or transfer to other occupations are expected to account for more than 4 out of 5 openings. The rest will result from employment growth; the rate of growth will depend upon factors such as overall population growth, the proportion of women who work, and the degree to which men patronize “unisex” hairstyling salons. Cosmetologists show a much stronger tendency than other service workers to stay in their occupation. In 1980, only 1 out of 10 cosmetologists left his or her job, a proportion comparable to that for professional and technical workers. When cosmetologists do leave their jobs, they tend to leave the labor force—relatively few transfer to other jobs or become unemployed. This at tachment to the occupation is noteworthy in light of the relatively limited investment in training, which can be acquired in a high school vocational educational program. For many young women, cosmetology serves as an entry point to the world of work. Nine out of every 10 cosmetologists are women, and most job entrants are under the age of 35. However, the field also is charac terized by a pattern of movement from family respon sibilities into the labor force and back to the home again. In 1980, most entrants to the occupation came from outside the labor force, from homemaking or school in almost equal numbers. Those who left their jobs as sumed household responsibilities, for the most part. Compared to the number who move to or from homemaking, relatively few persons transfer to or from other occupations. In 1980, the proportion of cosme tologists who transferred to or from other kinds of jobs was significantly smaller than that for all service occu pations, or for the economy as a whole. Nonetheless, some cosmetologists use their specialized knowledge to move into related occupations: They may manage large salons, demonstrate cosmetics in department stores, be come sales representatives for cosmetics firms, act as beauty or fashion consultants, teach in cosmetology schools, or work as examiners for State cosmetology boards. About half of those who entered cosmetology in 1980 took part-time jobs. Individuals entering from homemaking were more likely than those who had been students to choose part-time work. Women who com bine parental and job responsibilities probably prefer a part-time schedule when they first return to work. This relatively high proportion of part-time work is typical of service occupations in general and personal service occupations in particular. Recent graduates of cosmetology training programs who pass the licensing examination are the principal source of supply. In 1980, over 73,000 licenses were granted, according to data compiled by the Milady Pub lishing Corporation. The number of people passing the State licensing examinations has fluctuated between 55,000 and 85,000 a year over the past two decades. Augmenting the supply of newly trained cosmetologists is a large reserve pool of licensed but professionally in active cosmetologists who may reenter the occupation when employment and earnings opportunities are at tractive enough. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... 36 514.000 584.000 13.7 . 77,000 _ - 664,000 29.3 yu,000 Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 7,000 70,000 - 15,000 75,000 1 Includes cosmetologists and women’s hairstylists, manicurists, scalp treatment operators, and shampooers. Dental assistants Training. Most dental assistants learn their skills on the job. However,'some are trained in 1- to 2-year den tal assisting programs offered by community and jun ior colleges, trade schools, and technical institutes. Some schools offer 4- to 6-month courses in dental assisting, but these are not accredited programs. Individuals who complete dental assistant training in the Armed Forces usually qualify for civilian jobs as dental assistants. In 1979-80, about 7,000 individuals completed public vocational education programs in dental assisting, an other 4,500 completed private trade school programs, and about 3,300 completed community or junior col lege programs. Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for dental assistants are expected to be good through the 1980’s because of the relatively large number of job openings and the ease of entry into this occupation. About 45,000 dental assisting jobs are projected to be come available on average each year during the 1980’s because of faster than average employment growth and the need to replace experienced dental assistants who stop working or transfer to other occupations. Replace ment needs are substantial and are expected to account for about 7 out of 8 job openings, a much higher pro portion than in other allied health occupations. In 1980, nearly one-fourth of all dental assistants left their jobs. Half of them left the labor force alto gether—to go to school or assume household responsi bilities, for the most part. Over one-third transferred to another job and the rest became unemployed. Of those who entered the occupation during 1980, only about 30 percent transferred from other jobs. The others had not worked the previous year—most because they had been busy with school or household duties. Nearly 7 out of 10 jobs were filled by people with a high school edu cation or less. The remainder were filled by people who had attended college, although relatively few were col lege graduates. Dental assistants’ patterns of occupational entry and exit reflect the fact that the occupation is dominated by young women. Ninety-nine percent of all dental as sistants are female, and young people are the major source of supply. In 1980, well over one-third of all job openings were filled by teenagers (16-19 years), nearly all of whom had been in school the previous year. Many, undoubtedly, were still in school, for quite a few high school and college students work part time in dental assisting jobs. Part-time work is far more prevalent 37 among dental assistants age 16-19 than among those age 20 and above. Those entering the occupation between the ages of 25 and 34 are somewhat more likely to be returning to the job market than to be changing jobs. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 140.000 191.000 38.0 44,300 5,300 39,000 - - 198,000 42.4 45,700 5,900 39,800 Dental laboratory technicians Training. Most dental laboratory technicians learn their craft on the job, usually in 3 to 4 years. High school graduates are preferred, and courses in art, metal shop, and science are helpful. Many of those hired as trainees already have some knowledge of dental labo ratory work, usually because they have taken courses or completed formal training programs. Training in dental laboratory technology is available through community and junior colleges, voca tional-technical institutes, and trade schools; high school vocational education programs; apprenticeships; and the Armed Forces. Formal training programs vary greatly, both in length and the level of skill they impart. Ac credited programs generally take 2 years to complete and lead to an associate degree, although some lead to a certificate or diploma. In 1979-80, approximately 1,500 individuals com pleted public vocational education programs in dental laboratory technology; about 1,600 completed trade school programs; and 850 earned associate degrees in community or junior college programs. The number enrolled in dental laboratory technology programs of all kinds was higher than these figures suggest, for many students—vocational education students and appren tices in particular—drop out before completing the en tire sequence of courses. Students who have taken enough courses to learn the basics of the craft gener ally are considered by employers to be good candidates for training, regardless of whether they have completed the formal program. Employment patterns. Between 3,500 and 4,500 job openings for dental laboratory technicians are projected on average each year during the 1980’s due to faster than average employment growth and the need to re place experienced technicians who leave the occupa tion. Replacement needs will account for roughly half of future job openings in the occupation; replacements are a much less important source of jobs for dental laboratory technicians than for most other workers. Re placements are expected to account for nearly 9 out of 10 openings for all craft workers during the 1980-90 period. Dentists exhibit a strong attachment to work and to the dental profession. Once having completed their training and entered dental practice, dentists tend to work continuously until they reach retirement age. Some older dentists stop working because of ill health. Relatively few leave the labor force because of house hold responsibilities. The number of women in the pro fession is quite small, less than 3 percent of the total in 1980. Women are beginning to play a more prominent role in dentistry, however. Their share of first-year den tal school enrollments rose from 2 percent to nearly 20 percent during the decade of the 1970’s. Relatively few people leave dentistry to take up other careers. Nearly 99 percent of all dentists employed at the beginning of 1980 were active in the profession a year later. Such a high degree of occupational attach ment is found in only a few other occupations, notably among other health practitioners, who, like dentists, have a considerable investment in training. Recent dental school graduates constitute the princi pal source of supply of new dentists. Since licensure takes 8 years or more following graduation from high school, job openings for dentists are filled almost exclu sively by persons age 25-34. A few jobs are filled each year by older entrants, including licensed dentists who had left the civilian labor force temporarily because of military service or disability. The number of dental school graduates rose sharply from the mid-1960’s until the mid-1970’s, as new dental schools were established. The expansion has moderated in recent years, and enrollments are likely to level off or decline somewhat during the 1980’s. Nevertheless, the number of newly qualified dentists entering the la bor market each year will be substantial. As a result, an oversupply of dentists may develop in some locali ties and intensify in others. If so, various market adjust ments are likely—reductions in hours of work, reduc tions in earnings, and less intensive use of dental assis tants and dental hygienists, for example. Dental laboratory technicians exhibit a relatively strong attachment to the field. Fewer than 10 percent left the occupation in 1980, compared to 20 percent of all workers. Experienced workers who left dental labo ratory technology during 1980 transferred to other oc cupations, for the most part. Relatively few left the la bor force or became unemployed. Most of those who did leave the labor force were older technicians who retired. Currently, most entrants to this occupation are peo ple under the age of 35 who have had some postsecon dary education—although relatively few are college graduates. The rest transfer to dental laboratory jobs from other occupations. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 53.000 69.000 29.0 _ 3,600 1,500 2,100 - - - 79,000 48.7 4,900 2,600 2,300 Dentists Training. A license to practice dentistry is required in all States and the District of Columbia. In most States, a candidate for licensure must graduate from a dental school approved by the American Dental Association and pass written and practical examinations. In 1980, candidates in 48 States and the District of Columbia could fulfill part of the State licensing requirements by passing a written examination given by the National Board of Dental Examiners. Most State licenses permit dentists to engage in both general and specialized prac tice. In 14 States, however, a dentist cannot be licensed as a specialist without having 2 or 3 years of graduate education and, in some cases, passing a special State examination. In the other 36 States, the extra education also is necessary, but a specialist’s practice is regulated by the dental profession, not the State licensing author ity. Dentists who want to teach or do research usually spend an additional 2 to 4 years in advanced dental training in programs offered by dental schools, hospi tals, and other institutions. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990' .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 ........................................... Growth ......................................... Replacem ent............................... Employment patterns. About 4,500 job openings for dentists are projected each year during the 1980-90 pe riod. Two out of 3 openings are expected to arise be cause of employment growth. Demand for dentists’ services is expected to be heightened by population growth, increased awareness of the benefits of regular dental care, and greater availability of dental insurance. Replacements for dentists who stop working or trans fer to other occupations are expected to account for only 1 of every 3 openings, an unusually small propor tion compared to the average for all workers (9 out of 126,000 155,000 23.0 4,500 2,900 1,600 1 Current and projected employment esti mates furnished by the Bureau o f Health Pro fessions. Drafters Training. Most employers prefer applicants for entry level jobs as drafters to have completed some postsecon dary drafting training in a technical institute, junior or community college, or extension division of a univer sity. Some employers hire persons who were trained in 10). 38 school. In comparison, of all persons who entered pro fessional and technical occupations in 1980 and had not worked the previous year, only 30 percent had been in school. This difference may be explained by the occu pational orientation of educational programs in draft ing, which makes the transition from school to work relatively easy. Only about one-third of the job openings in 1980 were filled by workers who transferred from other oc cupations. In comparison, nearly one-half of openings in all professional and technical occupations were filled through transfer. Employers of drafters seek applicants with drafting skills, and few workers in other occupa tions acquire these skills. vocational and technical high schools or who acquired drafting experience in the Armed Forces. Others qualify through on-the-job training programs combined with part-time schooling or through 3- to 4-year apprentice ship programs. About 34,000 persons completed vocational educa tion programs in drafting during 1979-80, according to the National Center for Education Statistics, and nearly 7,000 persons earned associate degrees and certificates in architectural drafting and engineering graphics in academic year 1979-80. However, rates of entry into this occupation among graduates of these programs are unknown. In addition, some graduates may be drafters seeking to upgrade their skills. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... Employment patterns. Employment of drafters is pro jected to grow faster than the average for all occupa tions through the 1980’s as industries in which drafters are highly concentrated, such as engineering and archi tectural services and durable goods manufacturing, ex pand. Persons with an associate degree in drafting and those trained in the use of computer-aided drafting sys tems should have the best employment prospects. Employment growth is projected to create between about 9,000 and 13,000 job openings each year. How ever, between about 46,000 and 48,000 openings—about 4 out of every 5—are expected to arise from the need to replace drafters who retire or leave the occupation for other reasons. Still, replacement needs are a less significant source of job openings for drafters than for most other occupations. Data on the experience of workers in 1980 indicate that drafters leave their occupation in about the same proportion as most other professional and technical workers. Less than 13 percent of all drafters left the occupation. About half of the workers who left trans ferred to other occupations. The rate of transfer out of this occupation was slightly lower than the rate for many other engineering technician occupations. This may be because many engineering technicians learn technical skills that are easily transferred to repair and maintenance work, such as appliance and television re pair, while drafting skills are somewhat more special ized. About one-quarter of the drafters who left the oc cupation in 1980 left the labor force altogether—pri marily to attend school or retire. The remainder be came unemployed. In 1980, nearly three-fifths of all entrants into draft ing had some college or other postsecondary education. Less than one-third of the job openings were filled by those having a high school education or less. The re maining entrants were college graduates. Persons in the 20-24 age range filled most job openings for drafters. About two-thirds of all job openings for drafters in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. About half of these persons had been in 322.000 411.000 27.9 55,000 9,000 46,000 _ _ - 445,000 38.5 61,000 13,000 48,000 Electricians Training. Electricians learn their skills on the job. Many people learn the trade informally by working for several years as an electrician’s helper. Most training authorities, however, recommend participation in an apprenticeship program as the best way to learn the trade. Apprentices receive training in all aspects of the trade and as a result have a better chance to get a good job. Apprenticeships usually last 4 years, and consist of on-the-job training and related classroom instruction in subjects such as mathematics, electrical and electronic theory, and blueprint reading. Persons interested in becoming electricians can ob tain a good background by taking high school or vo cational school courses in electricity, electronics, alge bra, mechanical drawing, shop, and science. Applicants for apprenticeship usually must be high school or vo cational school graduates and have completed 1 year of algebra. Most local governments require electricians to be li censed. Electricians can get a license by passing an ex amination that tests their knowledge of the trade and local electrical codes. Employment patterns. Employment of electricians is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations during the 1980’s. As the economy ex pands, more electricians should be needed to maintain the electrical systems used by industry and to install electrical fixtures and wiring in new homes, factories, stores, and other structures. Between 63,000 and 69,000 jobs are expected to be available each year during the 1980’s due to the increased demand for electricians and the need to replace experienced workers who stop 39 working or transfer to other occupations. About 8 of every 10 job openings are expected to result from re placement needs. Although the annual number of job openings for electricians is expected to be large, people wishing to enter the occupation are likely to face com petition. High wages attract many people to the trade. People planning a career in this trade can improve their chances for a steady job by acquiring good, all-round training. Electricians exhibit a strong attachment to the occu pation. Electricians are not inclined to transfer to other occupations because they have a sizable investment in training and because their earnings are relatively high. Less than 3 percent of all electricians transferred out of the occupation in 1980, less than one-half the rate for other crafts. Most electricians who left their jobs in 1980 became unemployed or left the labor force. They accounted for 3 of every 4 separations from the occupation, compared to 1 of 2 for other crafts. Nearly one-half of all electri cians in 1980 worked in construction, where job open ings fluctuate with the level of building activity. About 6 of 10 electricians who stopped working in 1980 be came unemployed. Many probably were laid off when their projects were completed. The remainder of those who stopped working had left the labor force; most of these were older workers who had retired. During 1980, 54 percent of the job openings for elec tricians were filled by persons who had been un employed or out of the labor force, indicating that skilled electricians who are not currently working make up a significant part of the potential supply of labor. People who transferred from other occupations filled 46 percent of the job openings for electricians. Most workers who entered the occupation in 1980 had a high school diploma or less education. Fifty-five percent were more than 35 years old, compared to 30 percent for all craft occupations. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 560.000 669.000 19.5 63,000 11,000 52,000 _ - - - others who have degrees in science and mathematics also qualify for many technician jobs. Workers also can qualify as technicians through ap prenticeship programs or correspondence school train ing. Some qualify on the basis of experience gained in the Armed Forces. Some persons learn the needed skills by less formal training on the job. However, postsecondary training is becoming increasingly necessary for advancement. Nearly 83,O X persons earned associate degrees and C) certificates in engineering and science technologies dur ing academic year 1979-80, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. In addition, about 54,000 persons completed public and private vocational education programs in engineering and science tech nologies during 1979-80. However, rates of entry into this occupation among graduates of these programs are unknown. In addition, some graduates may be engineer ing or science technicians seeking to upgrade their skills. Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for engineering and science technicians are expected to be favorable through the 1980’s in view of the large num ber of projected job openings— 168,000 to 183,000 an nually. Opportunities should be best for graduates of postsecondary technician training programs. Industrial expansion, the increasing complexity of modern technology, and the growing importance of en ergy development and other areas of scientific research are projected to spur faster than average growth in the employment of engineering and science technicians. However, the need to replace experienced technicians who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for about 85 percent of all job open ings—about the same as for all professional and tech nical occupations combined. In 1980, 15 percent of all engineering and science technicians left their jobs—compared to 20 percent for all occupations combined and 11 percent for all profes sional and technical workers. Nearly three-fifths of the engineering and science technicians who left transferred to other occupations. Some engineering and science technicians, such as electrical and electronic technicians, possess skills that can be transferred to repair and main tenance jobs, such as television and radio repair. Over two-fifths of all engineering and science technicians who left their jobs in 1980 stopped working. Many left the labor force as retirees or to attend school; some be came unemployed. Relatively few assumed household duties—reflecting the relatively small proportion of women in this occupation compared to other profes sional and technical occupations. In 1980, persons transferring into the occupation filled about half of all job openings—similar to the pattern for all professional and technical workers. Of the per sons who had not worked the previous year, over two- 717,000 28.0 69,000 16,000 53,000 Engineering and science technicians Training. Although persons can qualify for technician jobs through many combinations of work experience and education, most employers prefer applicants who have had some specialized technical training. Special ized training is available at technical institutes, junior and community colleges, extension divisions of colleges and universities, and public and private vocational-tech nical schools. A few engineering and science students who have not completed the bachelor’s degree and 40 fifths had been in school. In comparison, of all persons who entered professional and technical occupations in 1980 and who had not worked the previous year, only 30 percent had been in school. This difference may be explained by the occupational orientation of educational programs in this field, which makes the transition from school to work relatively easy. Nearly one-half of those who took jobs as engineer ing and science technicians in 1980 had some post secondary education. One-third had a high school education or less. One-fifth were college gradu ates—most likely science graduates. In the face of a competitive job market, some graduates with a bachelor’s degree in science accepted positions as technicians. On the other hand, virtually all engineering graduates found professional positions in their field. Persons 20-34 years old filled 80 percent of all job openings for engineering and science technicians in 1980—somewhat higher than the proportion of open ings filled by persons in that age group in all profes sional and technical occupations. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 885,000 1,093,000 23.4 1,176,000 32.9 168,000 21,000 147,000 183,000 29,000 154,000 1 Includes broadcast technicians, civil engineering technicians, electrical and electronic technicians, industrial engineering technicians, mechanical engineering technicians, and all other engineering and science technicians. Engineers than half the rate for all occupations and is somewhat less than that for all professional and technical workers. Engineers are only slightly less likely to transfer to other occupations or become unemployed than are pro fessional and technical workers in general, but are much less likely to leave the labor force to attend school or for household responsibilities. Most engineers who leave the labor force are 55 or older. During 1980, about 44 percent of those who entered engineering were recent engineering graduates. Most of the other entrants transferred from other occupa tions—most likely people with previous experience or training in engineering or a related occupation. Some entrants were recent science and mathematics gradu ates, immigrant engineers, and persons over 55 who had not worked the previous year. The National Center for Education Statistics projects that an average of about 74,000 bachelor’s degrees in engineering and engineering technology will be awarded annually over the 1980-90 period. If entry rates observed during the 1970’s—averaging about 80 per cent—continue, roughly 60,000 new engineering gradu ates can be expected to seek engineering jobs annually. In the past, almost all recent engineering graduates who sought jobs received offers because they are preferred by employers for many engineering jobs. This prefer ence is not likely to change during the 1980’s, so all available recent engineering graduates, about 60,000 an nually, are expected to find engineering jobs. As a re sult, between 44 and 50 percent of the projected 120,000 to 136,000 job openings during the 1980’s would be filled by those graduates—compared to 44 percent in 1980. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... Training. A bachelor’s degree in engineering is re quired for most positions. Graduate training in engi neering is important for a number of jobs, and is essen tial for college and university faculty positions. Persons having experience in other technical jobs or degrees in the natural sciences or mathematics also may qualify for some engineering jobs. 1,218,000 1,552,000 27.4 1,672,000 37.3 120,000 33,000 87,000 136,000 46,000 90,000 ' Includes engineers and an estimate for college engineering teachers based on data from the National Science Foundation. Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for those with degrees in engineering are expected to be good through the 1980’s; new graduates should be par ticularly in demand. Between 120,000 and 136,000 job openings are projected annually. Replacement needs are expected to account for about three-fourths of these openings as employers replace engineers who transfer to other occupations or stop working. About one-fourth of the projected openings are expected to result from faster than average growth as investment in industrial plants and equipment grows and defense spending rises sharply. Even though the number of engineers expected to leave the occupation is large, the rate of movement out of engineering—about 6 percent leave annually—is less Insurance agents and brokers Training. Employers of insurance agents prefer col lege graduates but readily accept individuals with some college courses or with less than a 4-year degree. Some employers hire high school graduates with potential or proven sales ability or those who have demonstrated success in other types of work. Agents and brokers must have a license in the State where they plan to sell insurance. In most States, li censes are issued to applicants who pass written exami nations covering insurance fundamentals and the State’s insurance laws. New agents usually receive training at their local agency and also at the insurance company’s 41 home office. Some attend company-sponsored classes to prepare for examinations; other study on their own. a master’s degree within a certain period after begin ning employment. Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for insurance agents and brokers are expected to be good through the 1980’s. The volume of insurance sales should continue to expand as an increasing number of people enter the 25-54 age category—the group with the greatest insurance needs. Employment growth due to in creased sales and the need to replace people who leave the occupation are projected to create between 46,000 and 49,000 job openings annually during the 1980’s. Although replacement needs are expected to account for 85 percent of all openings, they are a somewhat less significant source of job openings than in most other sales occupations. Insurance agents and brokers are less likely to leave their occupation than other sales workers. Their sepa ration rate—13 percent—is almost as low as that for professional or managerial workers. Those who left the occupation during 1980 exhibited a greater than aver age tendency to transfer to other occupations—nearly 60 percent moved to other jobs compared to less than one-half of all workers. The rest stopped working. Most left the labor force primarily to assume household du ties or retire. Relatively few became unemployed. Data for 1980 indicate that this occupation tends to attract people with previous work experience who are older and better educated than average. Three-fourths of all jobs for insurance agents and brokers were filled by people who transferred from other occupations, com pared to less than half for all job openings. Two-thirds of those entering this occupation in 1980 were 25 years or older compared to one-half of all entrants. More than one-half of the job openings in this occupation were filled by people with at least some college education. Persons who took part-time positions as insurance agents and brokers tended to have less education than those who worked full time in 1980. Employment patterns. Roughly 220,000 job openings for kindergarten and elementary school teachers are projected to be created annually during the 1980’s due to employment growth and the need to replace expe rienced teachers who leave the profession. The demand for teachers is determined mainly by enrollments, which in turn depend on the school-age population. Based on Bureau of the Census projections of the population, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects that the downward trend for elementary school enrollments, which began in 1967, will halt around 1983. Thereafter, enrollments will rise through the 1980’s. As a result, employment of kindergarten and elementary teachers is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations over the decade. Some addi tional employment also may be created as a result of ef forts to lower the pupil-teacher ratio. Nevertheless, replacement needs are expected to be the main source of jobs—accounting for almost 9 out of every 10 openings. About 11 percent of all kindergarten and elementary school teachers left the occupation in 1980—about the same as the separation rate for all professional workers. Nearly one-half of all those who left kindergarten and elementary teaching did so to take up family responsi bilities, compared to 22 percent for all professional workers. About one-third of all teachers in this field transferred to other occupations. Some retired; rela tively few became unemployed or returned to school. New degree receipients constitute an important source of teacher supply. The number of persons quali fied to teach has declined in recent years because of the poor job market. In 1981, for example, only about 76,000 new graduates (about 8 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients) were prepared to teach in elemen tary schools, down from more than 135,000 new gradu ates (about 15 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients) in 1973. If the proportion prepared to teach remains at about 8 percent, an average of 78,000 new graduates will be prepared to teach in elementary schools each year during the 1980’s, based on the latest NCES pro jections of earned degrees. If the application rate for 1981—about 85 percent—continues, about 66,000 are likely to seek teaching positions. Most kindergarten and elementary school teachers are women. The occupation is characterized by a pat tern of movement from teaching to family responsibili ties or other work and back to teaching again. Thus, at any time, there is a large reserve pool of qualified teachers not in the labor force. In 1980, 37 percent of those who obtained teaching jobs had not worked the previous year because of household responsibilities. In addition, kindergarten and elementary school teachers have been in oversupply for years, so that many Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 327.000 399.000 21.8 _ 46,000 7,000 39,000 - - - 420,000 28.4 49,000 9,000 40,000 Kindergarten and elementary school teachers Training. All States require teachers in public elemen tary schools to be certified; some States also require certification of teachers in private and parochial ele mentary schools. To become certified, an individual must have a bachelor’s degree from an institution with a State-approved teacher education program, student teaching experience, and basic education courses. In 1980, almost half the States required teachers to obtain 42 would-be teachers took other jobs until they were able to obtain a teaching job. In 1980, 41 percent of entrants into kindergarten or elementary school teaching trans ferred from other jobs (some probably were recent graduates employed while in school). The number of persons in the reserve pool who will seek teaching jobs in the future cannot be estimated—it depends on factors such as the availability of teaching jobs and the salary level relative to other jobs. Never theless, job prospects for kindergarten and elementary school teachers are expected to improve after 1983 as enrollments increase. Shortages could develop if the proportion of bachelor’s degree recipients prepared to teach continues to decline, or if the number of persons from the reserve pool of teachers seeking entry to the field is insufficient. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment. 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 1,625,000 1,919,000 18.1 1,931,000 18.8 217,000 29,400 187,600 218,900 30,600 188,300 Includes salaried elementary school teachers and preschool and kindergarten teachers in the educational services industry. Lawyers Training. To practice law in any State, a person must be admitted to its bar. Usually, applicants for admission to the bar must pass a written examination. To qualify for the examination in most States, an applicant must complete at least 3 years of college and graduate from law school. Lawyers who have been admitted to the bar in one State sometimes may be admitted in another State without taking the bar examination, although re quirements may vary. Employment patterns. Employment of lawyers grew very rapidly during the late 1970’s. While growth is projected to be faster than the average for all occupa tions through the 1980’s as the demand for legal serv ices expands, employment growth is expected to create fewer annual job openings for lawyers than during the former period. The need to replace lawyers who retire or leave their jobs for other reasons is expected to ac count for about two-thirds of the 34,000 to 41,000 av erage annual job openings projected over the 1980-90 period. Still, replacement needs play a less significant role as a source of job openings for lawyers than for most occupations. During 1980, less than 5 percent of employed law yers left the occupation. While most lawyers who left the occupation transferred to another job, the rate of transfer out of this occupation was about one-half the rate for all professional and technical workers. Lawyers are less inclined to change their occupation, since they have invested substantial amounts of time and money in 43 training. Those lawyers who do transfer often take ad ministrative, managerial, business, or political posi tions, and some become judges. Most of the other lawyers who left the occupation during 1980 retired or returned to school. Some assumed household duties; relatively few became unemployed. The vast majority of job openings are filled by re cent law school graduates. Most of these graduates are in their mid- to late 20’s and have little or no work ex perience. About 35,600 persons earned law degrees dur ing academic year 1979-80, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. During 1980, about one-fifth of the job openings for lawyers were filled by persons who transferred into the occupation. This was less than one-half the proportion of openings that were filled by transfer in all profes sional and technical occupations. Some of those who transfer into the legal profession also are new graduates who have attended law school on a part-time basis while working full time in other occupations. Data from the American Bar Association show that law schools have graduated about 5,000 part-time students annually in recent years. Others who transferred included law school gradu ates who were reentering the profession and those who had no previous work experience as lawyers. Many of these persons used their law degrees to pursue careers in business, politics, and other fields in which a thor ough knowledge of law is invaluable. Some graduates, in the midst of keen job competition, were unable to find jobs as lawyers shortly after graduation from law school. Rather than establish a new law practice, they accepted jobs in other fields where legal training is an asset but not normally a requirement. These groups make up a reserve pool of qualified lawyers who can enter this job market at any time. Despite strong growth in the demand for lawyers during the late 1970’s, the sizable number of law school graduates entering the job market each year has cre ated keen competition for salaried jobs. Employment growth is projected to slow during the 1980’s. While the number of graduates is expected to level off during this period, the supply of new graduates seeking jobs as lawyers each year, coupled with those qualified law yers seeking to transfer into the legal profession, is ex pected to result in continued intense competition for jobs. This should be especially true in large metropoli tan areas. Graduates of prestigious law schools and those who rank in the top of their classes should have the best job opportunities. In this competitive job mar ket, the willingness to relocate also should be an ad vantage in getting a job. While establishing a new law practice is always pos sible, those who undertake this venture may find it dif ficult to compete with established law firms. Prospects probably will continue to be best in those small towns and expanding suburban areas in which an active mar ket for legal services already exists. Employment, 1980' .................. Projected employment, 1990 ..... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G ro w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 425,000 532,000 25.3 - 588,000 38.6 34,000 11,000 23,000 - 41,000 16,000 25,000 ' Includes lawyers and an estimate for law school faculty based on data from the American Bar Association. Librarians Training. Entry requirements for librarians vary by employment setting. Most States require that school li brarians be certified as teachers. A library degree may not be required because the library has become the “learning resources center” in many schools and is staffed by those with master’s degrees in media re sources, educational technology, and audio-visual com munications, or with bachelor’s or master’s degrees in library science. A master’s degree in library science (MLS) is usually required for jobs in public libraries and most college and university libraries. Some States require certification of public librarians; the specific education and experience required vary. A Ph.D. de gree in library science is advantageous for teaching in library schools or for a top administrative post in a col lege or university library or in a large library system. MLS’s were awarded in 1980, down from about 8,000 annually in the mid-1970’s. This decline probably re flects the response of students to the poor job market for librarians. Furthermore, not all become librarians right after graduation. Only about half of the 1976-77 MLS recipients were employed as librarians in Febru ary 1978, according to a survey by the National Cen ter for Education Statistics. Most entrants come from the pool of those qualified to be librarians who are not in the occupation. Nearly half of those who entered the occupation in 1980 had not been in the labor force the previous year because of household responsibilities. Most of the others transferred from other occupations, although some probably were recent library science graduates employed in other occupations while in school. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G ro w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 145.000 149.000 2.6 20,700 400 20,300 - - - 151,000 4.5 21,200 700 20,500 1 Includes librarians and audiovisual specialists. Licensed practical nurses Training. All States require practical nurses to have a license. To become licensed, applicants must complete a State-approved program in practical nursing and pass a written examination. Educational requirements for en rollment in State-approved training programs range from completion of eighth grade to high school gradua tion, but a high school diploma is usually preferred. Generally, the course lasts 1 year and is given in com munity and junior colleges, local hospitals, and voca tional schools. Employment patterns. Approximately 21,000 job open ings are projected to become available annually during the 1980’s. Virtually all openings are expected to arise from the need to replace librarians who stop working or transfer to other occupations, since employment growth is projected to be very slow through the 1980’s. Employment growth in public libraries is likely to be slower than it has been in the last two decades, while lit tle change is foreseen in school library employment and employment of academic librarians is expected to decline slightly. Opportunities are expected to be best for librarians with specialized knowledge in scientific and technical fields, including medicine, law, engineer ing, and the physical and biological sciences. During 1980, about 15 percent of all librarians left the occupation. This separation rate was somewhat higher than the average for all other professional workers, primarily because librarians left the labor force at a higher rate; they were about as likely as other pro fessional workers to transfer to other occupations or become unemployed. Of those who left the occupation, about one-third transferred to another occupation, about one-fourth left the labor force to take up household re sponsibilities, and the rest became unemployed, returned to school, or retired. One source of entrants is new graduates with mas ter’s degrees in library science (MLS). About 5,300 Employment patterns. Job prospects for licensed prac tical nurses (LPN’s) should be good throughout the 1980’s in view of the large number of job openings an ticipated. About 115,000 LPN jobs are projected each year during the 1980-90 period as a result of faster than average employment growth and the need to replace experienced nurses who leave the occupation. Replace ment needs are expected to account for the majority of LPN job openings—nearly 4 out of 5. Nonetheless, re placement needs account for proportionally fewer job openings in practical nursing than in other service oc cupations, or in the economy as a whole. LPN ’s show an unusually strong attachment to their field: In 1980 they were three times less likely than all other workers to change occupations. They were much less likely than other service workers to transfer to an other occupation or become unemployed. This may be associated with continuing high levels of demand for LPN ’s as well as limited opportunities for movement 44 into other health careers; entry requirements in the health field are such that experience cannot as a rule substitute for completion of a prescribed course of training. Of those who did leave nursing, about 7 out of 10 left the labor force altogether—generally to attend to family responsibilities. Licensed practical nurses not currently active in the field form a reserve pool of in dividuals qualified to reenter later on. Many do—the occupation is characterized by movement from homemaking into the labor force and out again. In 1980, an estimated 150,000 LPN ’s were not working in the field. Entrants to practical nursing do not fit the pattern for the rest of the labor force. For the economy as a whole, just over half of those who entered an occupa tion during 1980 had not worked the year before and the rest had transferred from another occupation. In practical nursing, however, 4 out of 5 entrants had not been employed the previous year (most had been home makers or students) and only 1 in 5 had transferred from another occupation. Some of the latter were most likely students who held other jobs while completing their training. The very high percentage of new LPN ’s who had not been employed the previous year reflects the move ment of mature women into and out of the occupation. Practical nursing attracts many middle-aged and older women, and this distinguishes it from other service oc cupations (except private household jobs). People age 35 and older filled more than 50 percent of the open ings for practical nurses in 1980, but only 20 percent of all openings for service workers. Conversely, com pared to other fields, relatively few teenagers and young adults enter practical nursing. Individuals age 16-24 filled only about 20 percent of the LPN job openings in 1980, compared to 60 percent of all service openings. About 42,000 persons graduated from practical nurse training programs in 1980, according to the National League for Nursing, and almost 90 percent of them en tered the occupation. New graduates filled approxi mately 2 out of 5 openings for practical nurses that year. If the number of new graduates declines for the remainder of the decade, as anticipated by the Bureau of Health Professions, new graduates will fill a smaller proportion of job openings than they do today. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990' .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 ........................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... Machine tool operators Training. Most machine tool operators learn their skills on the job. Beginners usually start by observing expe rienced operators at work, and gradually assume more responsibility as they gain experience. Individual ability and effort largely determine the time required to become a machine tool operator. Most semiskilled operators learn their jobs in a few months, but becoming a skilled operator often requires 1 to 2 years. Some companies have formal training programs for new employees. Although no special education is required for semi skilled jobs, persons seeking such work can improve their opportunities by completing courses in mathe matics and blueprint reading. In hiring beginners, em ployers often look for persons with mechanical aptitude and some experience in working with machinery. Physi cal stamina is important since much time is spent stand ing. Applicants should be able to work independently. Employment patterns. Job opportunities for machine tool operators should be plentiful through the 1980’s in view of the large number of projected job open ings—nearly 160,000 annually. Growth in the employ ment of machine tool operators is projected to be about the same as the average for all occupations as metalworking industries expand their output. However, the need fo replace experienced operators who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for about 9 out of 10 jobs. Twenty-five percent of all machine tool operators left their jobs in 1980, about the same as for all non transport equipment operatives. Over two-fifths of them transferred to other jobs. Some operators advanced to highly skilled machining occupations such as all-round machinist or tool-and-die maker or to jobs in machine programming and maintenance. Other operators proba bly transferred to other skilled or semiskilled occupa tions. One-third of all machine tool operators who left their jobs became unemployed—reflecting the occupa tion’s sensitivity to the business cycle. Nearly one-fourth left the labor force altogether; four-tenths of these op erators were retirees—age 55 and older. Over half of all job openings for machine tool op erators in 1980 were filled by persons who transferred into the occupation—most likely from unskilled or semi skilled occupations. This was slightly higher than the proportion of openings in other operative occupations filled by transfer. Nearly three-fourths of those who transferred into this occupation were 25-54 years old. In comparison, for all operative occupations except transport, half of those who transferred were in this age group. Persons who had not worked the previous year filled nearly half of all openings for machine tool operators 550,000 782,000 42.4 115,000 22,000 93,0001 1 Current employment estimate furnished by the Bureau o f Health Professions; projec tion developed by BLS outside the frame work o f the OES matrix. 45 in 1980. Over half of these operators had been un employed and one-fourth had left household responsi bilities or had been in school. Of all machine tool op erators who had not worked the previous year, over half were 16-24 years old. Eighty-five percent of all machine tool operators who had not worked the pre vious year had a high school education or less. Roughly equal numbers had some formal postsecondary educa tion or were college graduates. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 1,020,000 1,205,000 18.3 1,233,000 21.1 155,000 19,000 136,000 In 1980, about 15 percent of manufacturers’ sales workers left the occupation—less than the proportion for all sales workers combined, but about the same as for wholesale trade sales workers. Of those who left, a greater proportion than average—68 percent—trans ferred to other jobs. Relatively few manufacturers’ sales workers leave the labor force or become unemployed. In 1980, 54 percent of the job openings for manufac turers’ sales workers were filled by persons who trans ferred from other occupations; the rest were filled by those who were unemployed or previously outside the labor force. Those who transferred tended to be older and better educated than entrants who had not worked during the previous year. Manufacturers’ sales work is popular with older individuals who are interested in making a career change. Individuals who were age 25 or older filled almost 8 out of 10 job openings in this occupation, compared to only a little more than onehalf of all jobs openings. More than half of the open ings in this occupation were filled by persons with at least some college education. 159,000 21,000 138,000 1 Includes drill press and boring machine operators; grinding and abrading machine operators, metal; lathe machine operators, metal; machine tool operators, combination; machine tool operators, numerical control; machine tool operators, tool room; milling and planing machine operators; power brake and bending machine operators, metal; punch press operators, metal; wood machinists; shaper and router operators; lathe operators, wood; glass blowing lathe operators; lathe operators, grinding wheels; jewel bearing lathe operators; veneer lathe operators; boring machine operators, wood; power press tenders; punch press operators, plastics; incising machine operators; envelope finishing machine operators; drill punch operators; drillers, machine; and stone drillers. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... Manufacturers’ sales workers 437,000 501,000 14.5 71,000 7,000 64,000 - _ - 543,000 24.1 78,000 11,000 67,000 1 Includes sales workers in manufacturing industries. Training. Manufacturing firms increasingly are seek ing college graduates or individuals with at least some college education for sales positions. Manufacturers of nontechnical products look for business administration or liberal arts graduates; manufacturers of technical products usually seek graduates with degrees in science or engineering. Many employers also hire high school graduates with potential or proven sales ability or with demonstrated success in other types of work. Many companies, especially manufacturers of tech nical products, have formal training programs for be ginning sales workers that last at least 2 years. In some programs, trainees rotate among jobs to learn about production, installation, and distribution of the product. In others, trainees receive classroom instruction and on-the-job training under the supervision of a field sales manager. Physicians Training. All States require a license for the practice of medicine. Applicants must graduate from an accred ited medical school; serve a 1- or 2-year residency after earning the M.D.; and pass a licensing examination. The licensing examination taken by most graduates of U.S. medical schools is the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) test that is accepted by all States except Texas and Louisiana. Graduates of foreign medi cal schools as well as graduates of U.S. medical schools who have not taken the NBME test must take the Fed eration Licensure Examination (FLEX) that is accepted by all jurisdictions. Although physicians licensed in one State usually can get a license to practice in another without further examination, some States limit this reciprocity. Most physicians specialize in a particular field of medicine. Advanced training following the residency continues for 2 years or more and is offered in 38 spe cialties including internal medicine, general surgery, ob stetrics and gynecology, psychiatry, pediatrics, radiol ogy, anesthesiology, ophthalmology, pathology, and or thopedic surgery. The most rapidly growing specialties are in the primary care area—family practice, internal medicine, and pediatrics. Upon completion of the ad vanced training program and a period of clinical prac Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for manufacturers’ sales workers are expected to be good through the 1980’s. Employment is p*ojected to grow about as fast as the average for all occupations. Employment growth and the need to replace experienc ed workers who leave their jobs are projected to create between 71,000 and 78,000 job openings annually dur ing the 1980’s. Replacement needs are expected to be the main source of openings, however, accounting for 9 out of 10 job openings. 46 specialties is already evident, and supply/demand imbalances may intensify. Although primary care phy sicians who locate in areas where physicians are in de mand should encounter little difficulty in establishing a practice, some specialists are expected to face an in creasingly competitive market for the positions or lo cations of their choice. Pressure to curtail, the influx of foreign medical graduates is likely to continue as the market adjusts to the increasingly abundant supply of physicians. tice, applicants for specialty board certification take the appropriate examination. Employment patterns. Faster than average employ ment growth and the need to replace physicians who leave the medical profession are projected to create ap proximately 17,500 job openings each year during the 1980-90 period. The need to replace those who stop working or transfer to other occupations is expected to account for one-third of these openings. In comparison, replacements will account for nine-tenths of projected job openings for the work force as a whole. Physicians exhibit very strong attachment to work and to the medical profession. Once having completed their training and entered medical practice, physicians tend to remain in the labor force until they retire. Moreover, relatively few leave medicine for other ca reers. Nearly 99 percent of all physicians who were employed at the beginning of 1980 were still active in medicine a year later. Comparable estimates of occu pational attachment were 80 percent for all workers and 89 percent for professional and technical workers. Recent medical school graduates constitute the prin cipal source of supply of new physicians. Since licen sure and specialty board certification take 10 to 15 years or more following graduation from high school, job openings for physicians are filled almost exclusively by persons age 25-34. Some jobs are filled each year by older entrants, including licensed physicians who had left the civilian labor force temporarily because of mili tary service, disability, or household responsibilities. Medical school enrollments have increased greatly since the mid-1960’s; the sharpest rise occurred between 1965 and 1975. Enrollment increases have moderated since the mid-1970’s, and relatively little change in the number of new graduates is foreseen for the decade of the 1980’s. Foreign-trained physicians (including U.S. citizens who completed their training abroad) currently account for approximately one-sixth of all newly li censed physicians and one-fifth of all M.D.’s in prac tice. The number of foreign medical graduates practic ing medicine in the United States has soared during the past few decades but this trend is not expected to con tinue. The Bureau of Health Professions anticipates that the supply of foreign-trained* physicians will continue to grow during the 1980’s, but more slowly than in the past. Annual additions to the supply of physicians could range between 19,000 and 21,000, depending primarily on the rate of entry of foreign medical graduates. Fu ture enrollment levels in U.S. medical schools can be projected with reasonable confidence, and the supply of licensed but inactive physicians is small. It is diffi cult, however, to predict immigration. Job openings are projected to average about 17,500 a year. Evidence of oversupply in some regions and Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990' .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 ........................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 405,000 516,000 27.4 17,400 11,100 6,300 1 M .D .’s only. Current and projected em ployment estimates based on data furnished by the American Medical Association and the Bureau o f Health Professions. Plumbers and pipefitters Training. Plumbers and pipefitters learn their skills on the job. Many pick up the trade by working as helpers to experienced plumbers and pipefitters; some receive more structured training from their employers; and some participate in formal apprenticeship programs adminis tered by local union-management committees and local contractors’ associations. Apprenticeship consists of 4 years of on-the-job training and a minimum of 216 hours of related classroom instruction each year. Some train ing authorities recommend completion of an appren ticeship because the program includes instruction in all the skills of the trade. Employers prefer to hire high school graduates. High school or vocational school courses in shop, plumbing, general mathematics, drafting, blueprint reading, and physics provide a useful background. Most local governments have licensing requirements for plumbers. To obtain a license, workers must pass an examination on the trade and local plumbing codes. Employment patterns. Employment of plumbers and pipefitters is projected to grow about as fast as the av erage for all occupations through the 1980’s as con struction activity increases. Construction of oil refiner ies, chemical plants, powerplants, and other projects that have large, complex pipe systems is expected to increase demand for pipefitters. Similarly, construction of houses and other residential buildings is expected to increase the demand for plumbers. Between 52,000 and 57,000 job openings are projected to be available each year during the 1980’s due to the increased demand for 47 plumbers and pipefitters and the need to replace expe rienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. About 9 of 10 openings are expected to result from replacement needs. Data on work experience in 1980 indicate that only about 3 percent of plumbers and pipefitters transferred to other occupations—less than one-half the proportion for other craft workers. Plumbers and pipefitters spend about 4 years acquiring their training and enjoy rela tively high earnings. Consequently, they have a strong attachment to the occupation. Those who do transfer probably enter related jobs such as air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanic. Most of the plumbers and pipefitters who left the oc cupation in 1980 stopped working. About one-fourth were older workers who retired. Most, however, were experienced workers who were between jobs. When work is not available or construction projects are com pleted, plumbers and pipefitters may become un employed or leave the labor force temporarily. Most desire to reenter the trade when jobs become available and therefore reentrants are an important part of the labor supply for the occupation. About 49,000 persons took jobs as plumbers and pipe fitters during 1980. Six of every 10 jobs were filled by people who had not been working. Most were experi enced plumbers and pipefitters who had been un employed. Some had been in school; many were 16- to 19-year-olds who probably entered the occupation for the first time. A small proportion were older workers who had dropped out of the labor force temporarily. Four jobs in 10 were filled by persons who trans ferred from other occupations. Some who transferred probably were experienced plumbers or pipefitters who had entered other occupations during periods when construction activity in their trade was down. Others were production workers who advanced to jobs as pipe fitters in manufacturing plants. Some transferred from apprentice or helper jobs. People entering the occupation for the first time can expect competition despite the large number of pro jected openings. Many people are attracted to the plumbing and pipefitting trade because of potential high earnings. Also, because of the temporary nature of con struction work, there usually is a pool of experienced plumbers and pipefitters who are unemployed or out side the labor force. People planning to pursue this trade can improve their chances of steady work by ac quiring all-round skills. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 407.000 489.000 20.0 52,000 8,000 44,000 _ _ - Printing press operators and assistants Training. Most press operators learn their trade through apprenticeship programs, beginning as helpers to experienced press operators. Others obtain their skills through a combination of work experience and voca tional or technical school training. The length and content of training depend largely on the kind of press used in the plant. Most press opera tors are trained to operate more than one press but spe cialize in a particular area of printing such as letterpress, lithography, or gravure. The apprenticeship pe riod in commercial shops generally is 2 years for press assistants and 4 years for press operators. In addition to on-the-job instruction, the apprenticeship includes related classroom or correspondence school courses. Courses in printing provide a good background. Be cause of technical developments in the printing indus try, courses in chemistry, electronics, and physics also are helpful. Employment patterns. Printing press operators are likely to face competition for jobs during the 1980’s. The number of applicants to apprenticeship programs is expected to exceed the number of openings. As a re sult, most people probably will have to take jobs as helpers or unskilled laborers before being selected for an apprenticeship. Web-press operators should have the best job prospects as many firms switch to web-offset presses from letterpresses or sheet-fed presses. An estimated 25,000-28,000 job openings are pro jected annually through the 1980’s. The need to replace printing press operators who retire or leave their jobs for other reasons is expected to account for about 90 percent of these openings—about the same proportion as for all occupations combined. The remaining open ings are expected to result from employment growth, which, however, will be relatively slow as the increased use of faster and more efficient presses partially offsets the need for more press operators arising from growth in the amount of printed materials. During 1980, about 16 percent of all printing press operators left the occupation—the same proportion as for all craft workers combined. Nearly two-thirds of these operators transferred to other jobs—most likely to other skilled or semiskilled occupations. Another one-fourth left the labor force—about half were retir ees, age 55 and older. During 1980, over 60 percent of all job openings for printing press operators were filled by persons who transferred into the occupation, compared to slightly over 50 percent for all craft workers combined. Many persons work as helpers or unskilled laborers before being selected for an apprenticeship. Others may trans fer from declining printing occupations such as com positors and typesetters or electrotypers and stereo 522,000 28.3 57,000 12,000 45,000 48 typers. Nearly 40 percent of the openings in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. Over one-half of these persons had been un employed and over one-fourth had been in school. Persons with a high school education or less filled over 60 percent of the jobs for printing press operators in 1980. However, less than 10 percent of the jobs were filled by persons 16-19 years old—indicating that very few individuals enter this occupation immediately after completing high school. Persons with some college or postsecondary training filled over one-fourth of the openings; college graduates filled less than 10 percent of the jobs. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 178.000 194.000 9.0 25,500 1,600 23,900 _ - _ - half the separation rate for all workers and somewhat less than the rate for all professional and technical workers. Fifty-four percent of those who left the occupation transferred to a different job—probably systems ana lyst, data processing manager, or hardware or software sales worker. Forty-six percent of those who left the occupation stopped working. Most of these left the la bor force—many assumed household responsibilities and others retired. Relatively few programmers became unemployed in 1980. About 55 percent of all job openings for program mers in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. Most had been in school and were under 35 years of age. The remaining jobs were filled by workers who transferred from other occupations. Because of a shortage of trained programmers, many computer operators who completed additional training were able to advance to jobs as programmers. High wages in programming also have attracted other workers with appropriate skills, such as mathematics and physics teachers and engineers. 208,000 16.9 27,900 3,000 24,900 ' Includes letter press operators, offset lithographic press operators, platemakers, press operators and plate printers, and all other press and plate printers. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... Programmers Training. In hiring programmers, employers look for people who can think logically and are capable of ex acting analytical work. Employers using computers for scientific or engineering applications prefer college graduates who have degrees in computer or informa tion science, mathematics, engineering, or the physical sciences. Graduate degrees are required for some jobs. Although some employers who use computers for busi ness applications do not require college degrees, they prefer applicants who have had college courses in data processing. 228,000 340,000 48.9 36,000 11,000 25,000 - - 366,000 60.4 40,000 14,000 26,000 Psychologists Training. A doctoral degree in psychology is required for the most responsible research, teaching, clinical, and counseling positions. Psychologists who want to estab lish an independent practice also must meet certifica tion or licensing requirements. Licensing laws vary by State, but generally require a doctorate in psychology and 2 years of professional experience. In addition, most States require that an applicant pass a written and an oral examination. A master’s degree in psychology may qualify individuals to work as psychological assistants, school psychologists or counselors, or to teach in 2-year colleges. Some States certify those with master’s level training as psychological assistants or associates. Some States require continuing education for relicensure. Employment patterns. Employment of programmers is projected to grow faster than the average for all occu pations through the 1980’s as computer usage expands. Between 36,000 and 40,000 jobs are projected to be available each year due to the increased demand for programmers and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occu pations. Replacement needs are expected to account for about two-thirds of all job openings for programmers, a much lower proportion than the proportion for all professional and technical workers—86 percent. Job prospects for programmers should continue to be excel lent for college graduates who have had computer-re lated courses, particularly for those with a major in computer science or a related field. Graduates of 2-year programs in data processing technologies also should have good prospects, primarily in business applications. Data on work experience in 1980 indicate that pro grammers have a strong attachment to their occupa tion. Only 9 percent left the occupation in 1980, one- Employment patterns. Roughly 12,000 job openings for psychologists are projected to be created each year dur ing the 1980’s due to average employment growth and the need to replace psychologists who retire or leave their jobs for other reasons. Although replacement needs are expected to account for about 4 out of 5 openings, they are a less significant source of job open ings than in most other occupations. Persons holding doctorates in applied areas such as clinical, counseling, and industrial or organizational psy chology should have more favorable job prospects than 49 business administration or management. Companies that manufacture machinery or chemicals may prefer appli cants with a background in engineering or science, while other companies hire business administration majors as trainees. Courses in purchasing, accounting, economics, and statistics are helpful. Familiarity with computers also is desirable. Some small companies require a bachelor’s degree; many others, however, hire graduates of associate de gree programs in purchasing for entry level jobs. They also may promote purchasing clerks or technicians to purchasing agent. those trained in research specialties such as experimen tal, physiological, and comparative psychology. Psy chologists with extensive training in quantitative re search methods and computer science should have a competitive edge over applicants without this back ground. Competition for academic positions is expected to remain keen. Persons with only a master’s degree will probably continue to encounter severe competition for the limited number of jobs for which they qualify. Data on the experience of workers in 1980 indicate that psychologists have a strong attachment to their occupation. Less than 8 percent left the occupation, compared with about 11 percent of all professional and technical workers and 20 percent of all workers com bined. The rate of transfer out of this occupation was slightly over half the rate for all professional and tech nical workers, perhaps reflecting the substantial amount of time and money psychologists invest in training. Of those psychologists who left the occupation but did not transfer to another occupation, over half attended school or assumed household duties; the others retired or became unemployed. In 1980, over 60 percent of the job openings for psy chologists were filled by persons who were 35-54 years old—three times the proportion of openings for all pro fessional and technical workers filled by persons in that age group. Many qualified psychologists enter or reenter the occupation after pursuing academic, business, and other careers, while other persons in this age group en ter the field after earning an advanced degree in psy chology. According to the National Center for Educa tion Statistics, about 7,800 master’s and 2,800 doctor’s degrees were awarded in psychology in academic year 1979-80. Roughly half of those who entered the occupation in 1980 transferred from other jobs—most likely per sons who worked in another occupation while earning an advanced degree in psychology and those who reen tered the occupation after pursuing other careers. Of the other half, some had been in school or had household responsibilities while others had been unemployed. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 106,000 129,000 22.3 11,600 2,400 9,200 _ - - - Employment patterns. Employment of purchasing agents is projected to increase about as fast as the av erage for all occupations through the 1980’s as manu facturing firms, other businesses, and government agen cies seek to minimize costs associated with purchases of materials, supplies, equipment, and services. Between 20,000 and 22,000 job openings are projected to be available each year during the 1980’s due to the rising demand for purchasing agents and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or trans fer to other occupations. Although replacement needs are expected to account for about 8 of 10 job openings, they are less significant than for managers as a whole. Purchasing agents have a relatively strong attach ment to their occupation. During 1980, only about 10 percent of all purchasing agents left the occupation, of whom three-fifths transferred to other jobs. About onefifth left the labor force; the rest became unemployed. Those who became unemployed tended to have the least education. Of those who left the labor force, 35 percent were persons 55 and older who probably re tired; others took on family responsibilities and some returned to school. Six of every 10 job openings for purchasing agents in 1980 were filled by workers who transferred from other occupations—probably clerical and technical workers in the purchasing department who moved up the career ladder and others whose specialized knowl edge about particular products and services enabled tham to qualify for jobs as purchasing agents. The re maining openings were filled by unemployed purchas ing agents and persons who returned to the labor force after having taken time off to care for a family, attend school, or for other reasons. Most persons in this cate gory had some education beyond high school. 134,000 26.7 12,200 2,800 9,400 1 Includes psychologists and an estimate for college psychology teachers based on data from the National Science Foundation. Purchasing agents Employment, 1980 ................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ Replacem ent............................... Training. Although there are no universal educational requirements for an entry level job as a purchasing agent, most large organizations require a college de gree. and prefer applicants with a master’^ degree in 50 172.000 200.000 15.8 20,000 2,500 17,500 _ - - - 214,000 24.1 22,000 4,000 18,000 occupations;; and those trained in the Armed Forces. In 1980, three-quarters of those who entered the occu pation were labor force entrants or reentrants. Some had been students the year before, but many others had been homemakers. Only about one-fourth transferred from other jobs, mainly from other allied health occu pations. The proportion of radiologic technologists who transferred from other occupations was considerably smaller than that for all professional and technical workers or for the work force as a whole. The Committee on Allied Health Education and A c creditation (CAHEA) of the American Medical Asso ciation accredits many, but not all, formal training pro grams for radiologic technologists. The number of graduates of CAHEA-accredited programs has tripled since 1965. A total of 8,720 persons graduated from CAHEA-accredited programs in 1980: 7,725 in radiog raphy, 664 in nuclear medicine technology, and 331 in radiation therapy technology. Health professions ana lysts expect the number of graduates in radiography to stabilize at the current level for the rest of the 1980’s, and completions in nuclear medicine technology and radiation therapy technology to rise considerably. Radiologic technologists Training. Completion of a formal training program in radiography, nuclear medicine technology, or radiation therapy technology is required for many entry level jobs. Hospitals, which employ about three-fourths of all radiologic technologists, prefer to hire individuals who have had formal training. Technologists employed in physicians’ offices are likely to be trained on the job, however. Training in radiologic technology is offered at the postsecondary level in hospitals, medical schools, col leges and universities, trade schools, vocational-techni cal institutes, and the Armed Forces. Formal training programs vary greatly, both in length and the level of skill they impart. They last from 1 to 4 years and lead to a certificate or an associate or bachelor’s degree. A bachelor’s or master’s degree in radiologic technology is desirable for supervisory, administrative, or teaching positions. A small but growing number of States require radiologic technologists to be licensed. Employment patterns. Faster than average employ ment growth and the need to replace radiologic tech nologists who leave the occupation are projected to create between 16,500 and 17,500 job openings each year during the 1980’s. Demand for these workers is expected to rise as radiologic equipment is increasingly used to diagnose and treat disease. The use of nuclear medicine in diagnostic tests and radiation therapy for cancer treatment is expected to spur demand for tech nologists with specialized skills. Despite the rapid increase in employment projected for the 1980’s, approximately 3 out of 4 openings are expected to arise from the need to replace radiologic technologists who stop working or transfer to other occupations. About 10 percent of all radiologic tech nologists left their jobs in 1980. This was about aver age for a professional occupation. Most left the labor force—to go to school or assume household responsi bilities, for the most part. Relatively few technologists transferred to another job or became unemployed. Radiologic technologists are young and predomi nantly female. Most job entrants are in their 20’s or early 30’s and 7 of every 10 radiologic technologists are women. The field is, accordingly, characterized by a pattern of movement from family responsibilities into the labor force and back to the home again. Nearly half of those who took radiologic technologist jobs in 1980 worked part time, a significantly larger proportion than for professional and technical workers as a whole. Recent graduates of formal training programs are an important source of supply. Other sources include ra diologic technologists returning to the field from homemaking or other activities; people transferring from other occupations (many of them from other health Employment, 1980' ................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 ............................ G r o w th ................................... R eplacem ent............................ 106,000 145,000 35.8 16,400 3,800 12,600 _ 152,000 42.7 _ 17,500 4,500 13,000 - Includes radiologic and nuclear medicine technicians and Xray technicians. Real estate agents and brokers Training. All States and the District of Columbia re quire real estate agents and brokers to be licensed. Pro spective agents must be high school graduates, be at least 18 years old, and pass a written test. The exami nation—more comprehensive for brokers than for agents—includes questions on basic real estate transac tions and on laws affecting the sale of property. Most States require candidates for the general sales license to complete at least 30 hours of classroom in struction. Candidates for a broker’s license must com plete 90 hours of formal training and have 1 to 3 years of experience selling real estate. Some States waive the experience requirement for applicants who have a bachelor’s degree in real estate. Employment patterns. Employment of real estate agents and brokers is projected to rise faster than the average for all occupations through the 1980’s in order to satisfy a growing demand for housing and other properties. Shifts in the age distribution of the popula tion should result in a larger number of young adults with careers and family responsibilities. This is the most 51 ing market, family responsibilities, or other personal factors. About 2 of every 3 homemakers and retired persons who began selling real estate in 1980 worked part time. Persons who had been in school or were un employed made up the remainder of the labor force entrants and reentrants. Persons who transferred from other occupations ac counted for about 37 percent of those who became agents and brokers in 1980. They came from a variety of occupations, such as other sales jobs, clerical jobs in real estate agencies, or from completely unrelated fields. About 1 of 6 who transferred took a part-time position. Information on work experience in 1980 provides some evidence that a growing number of real estate agents or brokers are college graduates. One-third of all persons taking jobs as agents or brokers had a col lege degree. This was double the proportion of college graduates entering other sales jobs. Fewer than 2 per cent of all entrants with a college degree came directly from school. About one-third of all graduates trans ferred into the occupation; the remainder were primarily college-educated homemakers and labor force returnees. geographically mobile group in our society and the one that traditionally makes the bulk of home purchases. As their incomes rise, these people also may be expected to purchase larger homes and vacation properties. The large number of job openings for real estate agents and brokers should make it easy to get a job. Competition for sales is keen, however. Well-trained and ambitious people who enjoy selling should have the best prospects for a successful career in real estate. Between 104,000 and 116,000 job openings are pro jected to be available each year through the 1980’s due to the increased demand for real estate agents and bro kers and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. About 8 of 10 job openings are expected to result from re placement needs, a somewhat smaller proportion than for all sales workers. Data on work experience in 1980 indicate that real estate agents and brokers are more likely to remain in their occupation than are other workers. Eighty-five percent of agents and brokers remained in the occupa tion between 1980 and 1981, compared to 80 percent for all workers and 77 percent for other sales workers. Brokers generally have a greater investment in their career than agents and therefore may have a stronger attachment to the occupation. About one-half of those who left their jobs in 1980 left the labor force. Many of these had worked in the occupation part time, and left to resume household responsibilities, to retire, or to return to school. About 44 percent of agents and brokers who left the occupation transferred to different occupations. This accounted for about 7 percent of all agents and brokers in 1980, slightly less than the average for all workers but substantially less than for all sales workers. Expe rience gained selling real estate enables these workers to move to other sales occupations, such as insurance or securities sales, or to the related fields of real estate appraisal, property management, and investment coun seling. Agents who work for large firms may advance to managerial positions. Relatively few real estate agents and brokers become unemployed; the proportion who lost their jobs in 1980 was less than one-fourth the proportion for all sales workers. Because agents are paid mainly by commis sion, they contribute relatively little to the firm’s costs. In most cases, it is to the firm’s advantage to keep agents working, even in a depressed market. About 74,000 people took jobs as real estate agents and brokers in 1980. About 63 percent were labor force entrants or reentrants. Most of these were homemakers or retired persons. Because real estate agents generally determine their own work schedules, this occupation attracts many people with family responsibilities. Many of these people enter, leave, and subsequently reenter the occupation, depending on the strength of the hous Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 19901 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 582,000 779,000 33.8 852,000 46.4 104,000 20,000 84,000 116,000 27,000 89,000 Current employment estimate taken from the Current Population Survey. Projected employment calculated using growth rates implicit in the OES matrix. Registered nurses Training. To obtain the license to practice that is re quired by all States and the District of Columbia, nurses must graduate from an approved school of nursing and pass a national examination administered by each State. Nurses may be licensed in more than one State, either by examination or endorsement of a license issued by another State. Nurse training programs vary in length from 2 to 5 years after graduation from high school, depending on the nature of the program. Programs offered by com munity and junior colleges take about 2 years and lead to an associate degree; hospital-based programs last 2-3 years and lead to a diploma; college and university pro grams require 4 or 5 years and lead to a baccalaureate degree. There is considerable controversy about the relative merits of the various nurse training programs. Some employers have specific preferences, but, with few exceptions, graduates of all of these programs qualify for entry level positions after passing the licens ing examination. 52 students in associate degree programs, one fifth are 30 years of age or older. About one-fourth of all job openings for nurses in 1980 were for part-time positions, approximately the same proportion of part-time openings as that for all professional and technical workers. In the economy as a whole, part-time workers filled one-third of all open ings in 1980. Nurses from outside the labor force and especially those in the 25-34 year age bracket showed the most interest in part-time work, reflecting the move ment of women with young children into the occupation. Recent nursing school graduates are a major source of supply for the profession, but not the only one. D ur ing 1980, an estimated 130,000 people entered nursing. Approximately 70,000 of them, or somewhat more than half, were recent graduates of basic nursing education programs. Most of the others came from the large pool of RN ’s who maintain their licensure while staying at home to care for families. Also included in the reserve pool are licensed nurses employed in other occupations, and individuals who reinstate their licensure in order to go back to work. Because of licensure requirements, relatively few peo ple enter or reenter nursing from another occupation (the transfer-in rate for 1980 was about one-third that for all occupations.) Nonetheless, some movement into the occupation is to be expected from nurses who pre viously held other jobs in the health field as faculty members, community health educators, health re searchers, administrators, or sales representatives for medical supply firms, for example. Enrollments in nurse training programs rose substan tially in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s and then lev eled off. The number of graduates of initial programs has hovered at about 76,000-78,000 a year since 1976. The Bureau of Health Professions (BHP) projects that 65,000-75,000 newly qualified nurses will complete training programs each year during the 1980’s. Actual completions could be either higher or lower, for en rollments appear to be associated with nurses’ earnings relative to those in alternative occupations. Accord ingly, if demand for nurses increases sufficiently to cause earnings to rise relative to those in other fields, nursing school enrollments would probably increase and train ing completions might surpass the levels currently an ticipated. If training completions fall below current levels while demand for nurses grows, a larger propor tion of job entrants will be drawn from the reserve pool of qualified nurses not currently working in the field. Some RN ’s who receive their training in diploma or associate degree programs subsequently enter baccalau reate degree programs to prepare themselves for a broader scope of nursing practice. Experienced RN’s may continue their training by enrolling in postbac calaureate programs leading to advanced degrees or specialist certificates. Employment patterns. Employment opportunities for RN ’s should be good throughout the 1980’s in view of the many jobs that will be available. Between 180,000 and 190,000 job openings are projected to arise each year during the 1980’s due to faster than average em ployment growth and the need to replace experienced nurses who leave the profession. Demand for nurses is expected to increase due to the health care needs of a growing and aging population. Advances in medical technology also should spur demand, for highly trained workers are needed for the sophisticated procedures and equipment used in diagnosis and treatment. Re placement needs are expected to account for 3 out of 4 openings for nurses each year, a much lower propor tion than the average for all workers (9 out of 10). In contrast to the popular impression of an exodus of nurses suffering from “ burnout,” data on the work experience of the population in 1980 portray an occu pation of above-average stability. Attachment to the occupation is stronger in nursing than in many other fields requiring a comparable investment in training. Nearly 90 percent of all RN ’s who held nursing jobs at the beginning of 1980 were active in the profession a year later. This is comparable to the occupational sta bility of professional workers in general—and signifi cantly greater than the stability demonstrated by the work force as a whole. The rate of occupational at tachment of nurses resembles that of elementary and secondary school teachers, dental hygienists, and per sonnel workers, and exceeds that of librarians, social workers, and dietitians. Although nurses change jobs from time to time— quitting one nursing job for a more attractive one else where—relatively few transfer to non-nursing occupa tions. When nurses leave the profession, they tend to leave the labor force altogether. About 7 out of 10 nurses who stopped working in 1980 did so in order to assume household responsibilities. Nurses are much less likely than other professional and technical workers to transfer to another occupation or become unemployed. In 1980, three-fourths of all entrants to nursing were in their 20’s or early 30’s. Nearly half were between 25 and 34 years of age, a much higher representation in this age group than average. Many of these were women entering or returning to nursing after a brief absence from the work force for family reasons. Nursing also is popular with mature women seeking a career; among Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G ro w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 53 1,104,000 1,541,000 39.6 1,617,000 46.5 179,000 44,000 135,000 190,000 51,000 139,000 jects seek jobs as reporters and correspondents each year. Newspapers and magazines located in small towns and suburban areas should provide the best opportuni ties for beginning reporters. Journalism graduates who are willing to relocate and start at relatively low sala ries should have an edge in getting these kinds of po sitions. Persons without at least a bachelor’s degree in journalism are expected to face increasingly stiff com petition for entry level positions. Competition for re porting jobs on large metropolitan newspapers and na tional magazines probably will continue to be keen. Most of these positions require previous journalism experience. Reporters and correspondents Training. Most large employers prefer applicants who have a bachelor’s degree in journalism. A major in news journalism is rcommended for those seeking jobs with newspapers, magazines, and news wire services. An ad vanced degree in journalism is an asset for prestigious entry positions, such as those on large metropolitan newspapers. Many small-town and local newspapers hire individuals who have acquired journalism training in a junior or community college or in the Armed Forces. Employment patterns. A relatively small number of job openings for reporters and correspondents—between 12,000 and 14,000—is expected each year during the 1980’s. Some will arise as a result of growth in the number of small-town and suburban newspapers. Re placement needs, however, are expected to be the pri mary source of the jobs, accounting for 9 out of every 10 job openings—about the same proportion accounted for by replacements in all occupations combined. During 1980, about 18 percent of all reporters and correspondents left their jobs, compared to only about 11 percent of all professional and technical workers. About one-half of them transferred to another occupa tion, such as public relations worker or radio and tele vision newscaster. Another one-third left the labor force, primarily to return to school, assume household responsibilities, or retire. Others experienced unemploy ment as some newspapers and magazines went out of business. About 55 percent of those who took jobs as reporters and correspondents in 1980 transferred from other jobs. Some, most likely, were persons who worked in other occupations while attending school. Others had exper tise in specialized fields, such as finance or athletics, and had demonstrated that they were capable writers. Transfers were a more significant source of supply in this occupation than in all professional and technical occupations combined, where less than 50 percent of the job openings were filled by transfer. About 45 percent of those who took jobs as reporters and correspondents in 1980 had not worked the pre vious year, the largest proportion of whom— three-fifths—had been in school. Some graduated from 4-year programs; others completed journalism programs in junior and community colleges. Still others took jobs after having been involved with family responsibilities. Data from the National Center for Education Statis tics indicate that about 8,500 bachelor’s and 900 mas ter’s degrees were awarded in journalism in academic year 1979-80. Not all graduates seek careers in this field, however. On the other hand, many persons who are talented writers in other occupations and can handle scientific, technical, and other highly specialized sub Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 57.000 70.000 22.2 12,400 1,300 11,100 _ - - - 75,000 31.7 13,400 1,800 11,600 Retail trade sales workers Training. Most retail trade sales workers learn their skills on the job. In large stores, training for newly hired workers usually begins with several days of classroom instruction, followed by on-the-job training under the supervision of an experienced worker. In small stores, an experienced worker, or in some cases the proprie tor, trains new sales workers. Employers prefer to hire high school graduates, and courses in commercial arith metic and merchandising provide a good background. Thousands of high schools offer distributive education programs that allow students to work part time while taking courses in merchandising, accounting, and other aspects of retailing. Marketing and distribution are also taught in trade schools, vocational-technical institutes, and community and junior colleges. Employment patterns. Employment of retail trade sales workers is projected to rise about as fast as the average for all occupations through the 1980’s as the industry expands in response to a growing population and higher personal incomes. The number of openings in this large occupation is considerably greater than average: Be tween 1.2 and 1.3 million job openings are projected to arise each year during the 1980-90 period. More than 9 out of 10 of these openings are expected to result from a need to replace experienced workers who leave the occupation. Retail sales jobs are easy to enter because education and experience requirements are minimal. Many of the jobs are part time. Students, homemakers, and retirees are among those attracted to the occupation because it is a ready source of supplemental income. Retail sales 54 sult from the need to replace experienced teachers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. In 1980, 9 percent of all secondary school teachers left the occupation. This separation rate is somewhat less than the rate for all professional workers. More than 40 percent transferred to other occupations; about 30 percent left the labor force to assume household re sponsibilities; the rest retired, became unemployed, or returned to school. New degree recipients constitute an important source of teacher supply. The number qualified to teach in secondary schools has declined over the past decade, as college students responded to the poor job market. In 1981, only about 84,000 new graduates (about 9 per cent of bachelor’s degree recipients) were prepared to teach in secondary schools, down from about 195,000 (about 22 percent of bachelor’s degree recipients) in 1972. If the proportion prepared to teach remains at about 9 percent, an average of 86,000 new graduates will be prepared to teach in secondary schools each year during the 1980’s, based on the latest NCES pro jections of earned degrees. If the application rate for 1981—about 72 percent—continues, about 62,000 are likely to seek teaching positions. New graduates are not the only jobseekers, however. Many entrants come from the large reserve pool that consists of persons qualified to teach secondary school who could not get a teaching job because of the over supply which has existed for the last 10 years or so, and teachers who left the profession for family respon sibilities or other reasons. Of the 122,000 who entered secondary school teaching in 1980, over 50,000 trans ferred from other occupations (although some—up to 15,000—of the transfers were new graduates who were employed while in college), and about 30,000 had not been working the previous year because of household responsibilities. Potentially, 140,000 entrants would be competing for the projected 107,000 annual openings in the 1980’s if similar numbers attempt to transfer from other occupations or from outside the labor force in addition to the 62,000 who are projected to seek em ployment after obtaining their degrees. Since many schools may prefer to hire new graduates—who com mand lower salaries and whose training is more re cent—fewer job opportunities are expected for persons who want to transfer into or reenter the field. Even new college graduates are expected to face keen com petition for jobs through the decade. However, job prospects should be favorable in fields such as mathe matics and natural sciences. Persons qualified to teach these subjects may be in short supply because of com petition from business and industry. Teachers qualified in special education and bilingual education also may find favorable opportunities. work also can serve as a steppingstone to higher pay ing, more responsible jobs. Data on the experience of workers in 1980 show that retail sales workers exhibited much less attachment to their jobs than the average. They left the labor force at a higher rate than average, primarily to become full time homemakers or students. Retail sales workers also transferred to other occupations at a higher than aver age rate. (A smaller proportion than average became unemployed or stopped working because of retirement or disability.) About one-third of those who entered this occupa tion during 1980 transferred from other jobs. The rest had not worked the year before, because they had been in school or occupied with household responsibilities, for the most part. Some had been unemployed. Those entering the occupation tend to be young; many are high school or college students. Sixty percent of those who took retail sales jobs in 1980 were under 25 years of age. By comparison, approximately 45 percent of all openings were filled by people age 16-24. Slightly more than half of the retail sales openings were filled by parttimers. People entering from outside the labor force, especially teenagers, were more likely to take part-time jobs, whereas people transferring from other occupa tions were more likely to take full-time positions. Employment, 1980' ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 3,347,000 3,985,000 19.0 - 4,261,000 27.3 1,199,000 64,000 1,135,000 - 1,269,000 91,000 1,178,000 - 1 Includes sales clerks and all other sales workers employed in the retail trade industry. Secondary school teachers Training. All States require public secondary school teachers to be certified; some States require certifica tion for teachers in private and parochial schools as well. To become certified, an individual must have a bachelor’s degree from an institution with a State-ap proved teacher education program, student teaching experience, and basic education courses. In 1980, almost half the States required teachers to obtain a master’s degree within a certain period after beginnning employment. Employment patterns. The demand for teachers is de termined mainly by enrollments, which in turn depend on the school-age population. Based on Bureau of the Census projections of the population, the National Cen ter for Education Statistics (NCES) projects that the decline in secondary school enrollments, which began in the mid-1970’s, will continue through the 1980’s. Consequently, all of the 107,000 job openings for sec ondary teachers projected annually are expected to re Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 55 1,237,000 1,059,000 - 1,066,000 Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90' ......................................... Decline ........................................ Replacem ent............................... -14.4 107,200 (-17,800) 107,200 - -13.9 - 107,600 (-17,200) 107,600 ' Data about the expected decline in employment are presented in parentheses for information only, since replacement needs are the sole source o f openings. See appendix B. Secretaries Training. High school graduates qualify for most sec retarial positions provided they have basic office skills. Secretaries must be proficient in typing and good at spelling, punctuation, grammar, and oral communica tion. Shorthand is necessary for some positions. Word processing experience is increasingly important and some employers require it. Others, however, provide word processing instruction to newly hired workers. The skills needed for a secretarial job can be acquired in various ways. Although formal training or refresher courses are not essential for most jobs, training is an asset and may lead to higher paying jobs. Secretarial training ranges from high school vocational education programs that teach office practices, shorthand, and typing to 1- to 2-year programs in secretarial science offered by business schools, vocational-technical insti tutes, and community colleges. In 1979-80, approximately 125,000 individuals com pleted public vocational education programs in secre tarial science, nearly 45,000 completed business school programs, and 33,000 completed community or junior college programs. There is no way of estimating how many of these graduates sought secretarial positions, i but it seems likely that many who completed postsecon dary programs entered the field. The general office skills that high school programs provide are suitable for many different careers, however. Employment patterns. Prospects for secretaries are ex• pected to be good throughout the 1980’s in view of the large number of jobs that are projected to be available and the relative ease of entry to the occupation. Open ings for secretaries are projected to greatly exceed the number of openings in most other occupations. Between 575,000 and 620,000 jobs are projected to be created every year during the 1980’s by relatively rapid expan sion in employment and the need to replace experienced secretaries who leave the profession. Employment of secretaries is projected to grow at a faster than average rate as existing businesses expand and new ones are es tablished. Replacement needs nevertheless are expected to be the primary source of secretarial jobs during the 1980’s, accounting for nearly 9 out of 10 openings. About 18 percent of all secretaries left the occupa tion in 1980, compared to 22 percent of all clerical workers who left their jobs. Approximately equal num 56 bers transferred to other occupations or left the labor force altogether. Relatively few secretaries became un employed. Of those who left the labor force in 1980, nearly 60 percent did so to take up household in re sponsibilities. This was about double the proportion who left their job for this reason among all occupations. • Two out of 5 people who took jobs as secretaries during 1980 transferred from another job, many from another clerical position such as typist, receptionist, ste nographer, bank teller, bookkeeper, cashier, or statisti cal clerk. The proportion of job entrants who trans ferred from another occupation was about average. Three out of 5 openings for secretaries were filled by people who had not worked the previous year. Some had been unemployed, and others had been in high school, business schoool, or college. Most, however, had been homemakers. Secretaries are predominantly female, and the occupation is characterized by a pat tern of movement from family responsibilities into the labor force and back to the home again. Of those who took jobs as secretaries during 1980, individuals who had not worked the previous year because of household responsibilities outnumbered those who had been in school by roughly 3 to 1. People who took jobs as sec retaries in 1980 also were more likely than average to be between 25 and 54 years of age, a time of life when people are most likely to be responsible for the care and financial support of children. One-third of those entering the occupation were 25-34 years of age and another one-fourth were age 35-54—a larger represen tation than the average for all occupations. Individuals with some college education filled nearly 2 out of 5 secretarial job openings in 1980. Most of these had attended college for a year or more but had not graduated. The rest of the secretarial open ings—more than 3 out of 5—were filled by people who had a high school education or less. One-fourth of those who took secretarial jobs in 1980 worked part time. Individuals coming from outside the labor force exhibited more interest in a part-time sched ule than those who transferred from another occupa tion. Women who combine parental and job responsi bilities probably have a preference for a part-time sched ule when they first return to work. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 2,500,000 3,200,000 28.3 3,400,000 37.4 575,000 70,000 505,000 618,000 92,000 526,000 Sheet-metal workers Training. Sheet-metal workers learn their skills on the job. An apprenticeship that combines classroom and on-the-job training is the best way to acquire sheet-metal skills. On the job, apprentices get practical experience in all aspects of the trade. In the classroom, they study drafting, blueprint reading, trigonometry and geometry applicable to layout work, welding, and the principles of heating, air-conditioning, and ventilating systems. A high school diploma may be required for entry into an apprenticeship program. Courses in trigonome try, geometry, mechanical drawing, and shop are useful. Employment patterns. Employment of sheet-metal workers in construction is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through the 1980’s. More sheet-metal workers should be needed to install air-conditioning and heating ductwork and other sheet-metal products in new buildings and to place new, more energy-efficient air-conditioning and heating sys tems in existing buildings. Installation of solar heating equipment also should increase the demand for sheet-metal workers. Between 17,000 and 18,000 job openings are pro jected to be available each year through the 1980’s due to the increased demand for sheet -metal workers and the need to replace experienced workers who stop work ing or transfer to other occupations. More than 8 of 10 job openings are expected to result from replacement needs, about the same as for all craft workers. Thirteen percent of all sheet-metal workers left their jobs in 1980. About 6 of every 10 who left became un employed or left the labor force. Temporary layoffs are common for sheet-metal workers in the construction industry because of fluctuations in the level of construc tion activity and slack periods between projects. Most of the sheet-metal workers who became unemployed were in their prime working years, age 25 to 54, who would be expected to find employment as soon as work picks up. Most of those who left the labor force alto gether were retirees, 55 years and older. About 4 of every 10 sheet-metal workers who left the trade transferred to other occupations, a substan tially lower proportion than for other crafts. Because they have made a sizable investment in training and their wages are relatively high, sheet-metal workers usually have a strong attachment to the occupation. Those who change jobs probably move to related crafts, such as air-conditioning and heating repair. Some sheet-metal workers may take managerial or sales jobs with construction contractors. About one-half of all those who took jobs as sheet-metal workers in 1980 transferred from other oc cupations. The rest were persons who had not been working the previous year, two-thirds of whom had been unemployed. The remainder were labor force en trants or reentrants, including young workers, age 16 to 24, who were entering the occupation from school and older, experienced sheet-metal workers who had previously left the labor force temporarily. About two-thirds of all the entrants to sheet-metal work in 1980 had a high school degree or less educa tion, a smaller proportion than for other craft occupa tions. The remainder had some postsecondary voca tional training in sheet-metal work or a related field. Entrants from other occupations were much more likely to have had some college training than entrants who had not been working. People wishing to enter sheet-metal apprenticeships are likely to experience keen competition for the lim ited number of available training positions. First-time entrants also are expected to face competition from ex perienced sheet-metal workers who are unemployed and from workers in related occupations who wish to enter the trade. Employment, 19801 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 108,000 130,000 19.6 17,000 2,000 15,000 - - - 137,000 26.1 18,000 3,000 15,000 ' Includes only sheet-metal workers employed in the construction industry. Social workers Training. A bachelor’s degree is the minimum require ment for most professional positions in this field. Besides the BSW (bachelor’s in social work), undergraduate majors in psychology, sociology, and related fields sat isfy hiring requirements in many social service agen cies. A master’s degree in social work (MSW) is gen erally required for positions in the mental health field; the MSW is almost always necessary for supervisory, administrative, or research positions. A doctorate in so cial work usually is required for teaching, and is desir able for some research and administrative jobs. In 1981, 26 States had licensing or registration laws regarding social work practice and the use of profes sional titles. Usually, work experience, an examination, or both, are necessary for licensing or registration. Employment patterns. Between 69,000 and 71,000 job openings are projected to be created each year during the 1980’s because of employment growth and the need to replace experienced social workers who leave the profession. Employment of social workers is projected to grow at about the same rate as that for all occupa tions, reflecting public and private response to the so cial service needs of a growing and aging population. Replacement needs are expected to be the principal source of jobs, however, accounting for 9 out of 10 openings during the 1980’s. During 1980, approximately 15 percent of all social workers left the profession. This separation rate was somewhat higher than the rate for all professional 57 or in graduate school. By contrast, more than 90 per cent of those who earned MSW’s in 1976-77 were em ployed in professional or managerial jobs 6 months after graduation; fewer than 10 percent were in nonprofes sional jobs, unemployed, or outside the labor force. Two-thirds of the MSW’s reported that they were em ployed as social workers. In view of the abundant supply of new college gradu ates and others with appropriate credentials, job pros pects for social workers vary a great deal. Opportuni ties depend in part on academic credentials—whether or not an applicant has formal social work training, and preferably an MSW. Geographic location is also an im portant consideration, for competition is keen in cities where training programs for social workers abound, such as Boston and New York. This competition is cer tain to intensify if social service programs in those lo calities are cut back. At the same time, population growth in Sunbelt States is spurring expansion of social service programs there, and some isolated rural areas find it difficult to attract and retain qualified staff. The type of practice is another variable. Job prospects are expected to be most favorable during the 1980’s in the health field, including mental health, and in services to the aging. Child welfare and school social work, by contrast, are likely to offer fewer oportunities than they have in the past. workers chiefly because of the high transfer rate. Over half of the social workers who left their jobs in 1980 transferred to another occupation. In some cases, this reflected normal career progression: Transfer from di rect service (e.g., casework or community action) to administration (e.g., policy analyst, planner, or program coordinator) or promotion from a job as casework su pervisor, for example, to one as agency administrator. Nearly half of those who left social work during 1980 stopped working altogether. Some became unemployed, but most went back to school, assumed household re sponsibilities, or retired. Individuals in this group aug ment the pool of potential reentrants. Particularly likely to return to the profession were those who stopped working in order to study for an MSW, a step that is important for career advancement. In 1980, approximately 30,000 individuals with a col lege education took jobs as social workers. Not quite half of them transferred from another occupation. Many came from other human service fields, such as person nel administration, therapy, psychology, recreation, teaching, and public administration. Others had previ ously held clerical or service jobs such as social wel fare aide, interviewer, clerical supervisor, or nurse aide. Some of those, undoubtedly, were BSW or MSW stu dents who worked part time while in school. The rest of the jobs filled by college graduates in 1980 were taken by people who had not worked the previous year because they had been unemployed or in school. Rela tively few people entering social work in 1980 had pre viously been occupied with home and family responsi bilities, despite the preponderance of women in the occupation. The supply of new graduates with suitable creden tials is very large. Approximately 13,000 persons earned BSW’s in 1980 and 10,500 earned MSW’s. Many of the former and most of the latter eventually obtained social work positions. In addition, about 35,000 bachelor’s and master’s degrees were awarded in closely related disci plines including law enforcement and corrections, park and recreation management, and public administration. Also qualified for social work positions were 1980 graduates with bachelor’s degrees in psychology (42,000) and the social sciences (104,000). Job search may involve spells of unemployment or the decision to take a job in an unrelated field. Fol lowup data on new college graduates suggest that dur ing the late 1970’s, job search difficulties in the social service area were largely confined to those holding bachelor’s degrees. Only 35 percent of college gradu ates who earned bachelor’s degrees in social work and the helping professions in 1976-77 were employed as social workers 6 months after graduation, according to a survey conducted by the National Center for Educa tion Statistics. Nearly half of the BSW’s held nonpro fessional jobs and about 10 percent were unemployed Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 345.000 414.000 428,000 24.1 20.0 - 69,000 7,000 62,000 - 8,000 - 63,000 71,000 Systems analysts Training. College graduates generally are sought for jobs as systems analysts, and, for some of the more complex jobs, persons with graduate degrees are pre ferred. Employers usually want analysts with a back ground in accounting, business management, or eco nomics for work in a business environment while a background in the physical sciences, mathematics, or engineering is preferred for work in scientifically ori ented organizations. Many employers seek applicants who have a degree in computer science, information science, information systems, or data processing. Re gardless of college major, employers look for people who are familiar with programming language. Courses in computer concepts, systems analysis, and data base management systems offer good preparation for a job in thfs field. Employment patterns. Job prospects for systems ana lysts should be excellent through the 1980’s. Employ ment of systems analysts is projected to grow much faster than the average for all workers as computer ca 58 pabilities are increased and as new applications are found for computer technology. Between 28,000 and 31,000 job openings are expected to be available each year during the 1980’s due to the rising demand for systems analysts and the need to replace experienced workers who stop working or transfer to other occupations. Re placement needs are expected to account for only about one-half of all openings for systems analysts, a much smaller proportion than for professional workers as a group. Systems analysts have a relatively strong attachment to their occupation; only 5 percent left the occupation during 1980, compared to 12 percent for all professional workers. Most of those who left the occupation trans ferred to other jobs. The transfer-out rate—4 per cent—was slightly lower than the rate for all profes sional workers. Those who transferred probably ad vanced to managerial postions or moved into engineer ing, computer sales, or other technical fields. Relatively few systems analysts left the labor force or became un employed in 1980. During 1980, 7 of 10 job openings for systems analysts were filled by workers who transferred from other occupations. Most probably were computer pro grammers moving up the career ladder. In many organi zations, entry workers routinely begin as programmers and are promoted to analyst jobs as they gain experience and demonstrate talent. Persons who had not worked the previous year filled 3 o f every 10 job openings for systems analysts. Persons who transferred into the occupation, on av erage, tended to be older than entrants who had not worked the previous year. College graduates filled vir tually all the job openings for systems analysts in 1980. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... G r o w th ........................................ R eplacem ent............................... 205.000 343.000 67.8 28,000 14,000 14,000 - - 368,000 79.8 31,000 16,000 15,000 Television and radio service technicians Training. Training in electronics generally is required to get an entry level job as a television and radio serv ice technician. High schools, private vocational schools, and junior colleges offer training in television and ra dio repair. Programs in these schools include subjects such as mathematics, physics, schematic reading, elec tricity, and hands-on work with television sets, radios, and other equipment. The training typically lasts from 1 to 2 years. The military services also offer training and work experience that are very useful in civilian electronics work. New technicians usually begin by working in the shop or in the field under the supervision of an experienced 59 worker. Large repair establishments may provide inhouse training combined with home study to familiarize new workers with particular brands and models of equipment. A few television and radio service techni cians complete 3- or 4-year formal apprenticeship programs. Some States require radio and television technicians to be licensed. To obtain a license, applicants must pass an examination designed to test their knowledge of electronic circuits and components and their skill in the use of testing equipment. Employment patterns. Employment of television and radio service technicians is projected to grow faster than the average for all occupations through the 1980’s in response to the growing number of television sets, video games and disk players, tape recorders, and other home entertainment products. Greater use of electronic products for other purposes is also expected to spur demand in this occupation. For example, closed circuit television is being increasingly used to monitor produc tion processes in plants, to protect buildings, and to bring educational programs into classrooms. Neverthe less, the need to replace experienced technicians who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for over four-fifths of all openings during the 1980’s, which are projected to average between 18,000 and 19,000 a year. Still, replacement needs are a less significant source of job openings than in most other occupations. Nearly 19 percent of all television and radio service technicians left their jobs in 1980—about the same as the rate for all occupations combined, but slightly lower than the rate for other craft workers and mechanics and repairers. Three-fourths of them transferred to other occupations—much higher than the proportion who left their jobs for this reason among all craft workers and mechanics and repairers. Their background in elec tronics often qualifies television and radio service tech nicians for other occupations, including electronics technician, computer service technician, business ma chine repairer, appliance repairer, and broadcast tech nician. Nearly one-fifth of all technicians who left their jobs left the labor force altogether; nearly three-fifths were retirees—age 55 and older. Relatively few tech nicians became unemployed—perhaps reflecting the fact that technicians enjoy steady work as the demand for television and radio services continues even during eco nomic downturns. Similar to the experience of other craft workers and mechanics and repairers, over half of all job openings for television and radio service technicians in 1980 were filled by persons who transferred from other occupa tions—most likely from mechanic and repairer or other craft occupations. Eighty-four percent of those trans ferring were 25-54 years old, compared to only 60 per entry into the occupation. The expansion of employ ment resulting from increased business activity and the need to replace experienced workers who leave their jobs are projected to create between 300,000 and 315,000 job openings each year during the 1980’s. Replacement needs are expected to be the main source of jobs, accounting for 9 out of 10 openings during the decade. The proportion of typists who left the occupa tion in 1980—about one-fourth—was somewhat higher than the average for all occupations. Nearly half trans ferred to other kinds of work, about 40 percent left the labor force, and the remainder became unemployed. Typists who left the labor force did so chiefly because of household responsibilities or to attend school. The proportion of typists leaving the labor force for these reasons was significantly higher than the average for all occupations. Relatively few typists stopped working because of disability or retirement. Many typing jobs are entry level and do not require office or business experience. The occupation accord ingly attracts people outside the labor force, including many still in school. Of those who began working as typists in 1980, people who had not worked the pre vious year outnumbered those who had worked by 2 to 1. In 1980, about 97 percent of all typists were women, and the data indicate that movement from family re sponsibilities into the labor force and back to the home was typical. However, teenagers (16-19 years of age) filled 1 job opening in 4 in 1980; two-thirds of these jobs were part time. Teenagers and older workers (age 55 and above) were far more likely to take part-time typing jobs than workers between the ages of 20 and 54, most of whom worked full time. Compared to the pattern for all occupations, the pro portion of job openings for typists filled by workers who transfer from other occupations is lower than av erage. People who become typists tend to come from outside the labor force; many probably have never worked before. The proportion of all typists who trans fer to other occupations is higher than average, sug gesting that typing serves as a steppingstone to contin ued labor force activity. It is common for typists to transfer to another clerical job, such as secretary, sta tistical clerk, or stenographer. cent for all craft occupations combined. Four-fifths of those who transferred into this occupation had a high school education or less. Less than half of the job openings for television and radio service technicians in 1980 were filled by persons who had not worked the previous year. Over half had been in school (almost all were 16-24 years old). In comparison, of all persons who entered craft occupa tions in 1980 and who had not worked the previous year, only 17 percent had been in school. Less than one-tenth of those who took jobs as television and ra dio service technicians in 1980 and who had not worked the previous year had left household responsibilities (all were 35-54 years old). This pattern reflects the very low proportion of women in this occupation—similar to other mechanics and repairers. Nine-tenths of those who took jobs as television and radio service techni cians and who had not worked the previous year had a high school education or less. One-tenth had some formal postsecondary education. Thirty-six percent of the job openings for television and radio service technicians in 1980 were part-time positions; only 13 percent of the openings in all craft occupations were part-time positions. Persons who had not worked the previous year exhibited more interest in a part-time schedule than those who transferred from other occupations. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 83,000 109,000 31.3 17,600 2,600 15,000 - - - 119,000 42.8 19,300 3,600 15,700 Typists Training. Employers generally hire high school gradu ates who can meet their requirements for typing speed. Some employers expect applicants to have word proc essing training or experience. Good spelling, punctua tion, and grammar are important skills, and familiarity with standard office equipment and procedures is an asset. Typing can be learned in different ways. Typing is taught in high schools, community colleges, business schools, and home study schools. Some individuals learn on their own, using self-teaching aids like books and records. More than 90,000 persons completed vocational education or business school programs in typing in 197980, but not all of them were planning to become typ ists. Some people learn to type for personal convenience, or because it is a useful skill for other jobs. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 ........................ Growth .................................. R eplacem ent............................. 1,067,000 1,254,000 17.5 1,330,000 24.6 299,000 19,000 280,000 316,000 26,000 290,000 Waiters and waitresses Training. Most waiters and waitresses learn their skills on the job. Some gain experience by working as waiters’ assistants, carhops, or food counter workers. Large res Employment patterns. Job prospects for typists are ex pected to be good throughout the 1980’s due to the widespread availability of jobs and the relative ease of 60 taurants and hotels generally prefer experienced workers and usually have higher educational standards than the 2 or 3 years of high school that smaller busi nesses generally accept. Some public and private voca tional schools, restaurant associations, and large restau rant chains provide classroom training in a generalized food service curriculum. Other employers use self-in struction programs to train new employees. Knowledge of a foreign language may be helpful in restaurants spe cializing in foreign foods. State laws often require waiters and waitresses to ob tain health certificates showing that they are free of contagious diseases. Employment patterns. Job openings for waiters and waitresses are expected to be plentiful through the 1980’s due to very high turnover. On average, 790,000 to 825,000 jobs are projected to be available annu ally—more than for almost any other occupation. Be ginners should find the best opportunities for employ ment in fast-food and other informal restaurants. Those who seek jobs in more expensive restaurants may ex perience keen competition. Employment of waiters and waitresses is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations as the population grows and people dine out more. However, the need to replace experienced waiters and waitresses who transfer to other jobs or stop working is expected to account for 95 per cent of all job openings—similar to the proportion for all occupations combined. The separation rate for waiters and waitresses, like that for all food service occupations, is one of the high est among all workers. In 1980, 40 percent of all waiters and waitresses left their jobs—twice the rate for all workers. Nearly half transferred to other jobs, about 40 percent left the labor force, and the remainder be came unemployed. Waiters and waitresses who stopped working did so chiefly to assume household responsi bilities (38 percent) or to attend school (24 percent), higher proportions than for all occupations. Relatively few waiters and waitresses left the labor force because of retirement or disability. Similar to all service workers, except private houshold workers, nearly one-third of those who en tered the occupation during 1980 transferred from other jobs—compared to more than two-fifths for all occu pations combined. More than two-thirds of those who took jobs as waiters and waitresses in 1980 had not worked the previous year, including many young stu dents and older homemakers for whom the occupation serves as a source of income rather than a career. Of these waiters and waitresses, 34 percent had been in school (virtually all were under 25 years old) and 28 percent had household responsibilities (four-fifths were over 25 years old). Overall, nearly 70 percent of the persons who took jobs as waiters and waitresses in 1980 61 were 15-24 years old. In comparison, persons in this age group filled 60 percent of the openings in all serv ice occupations, except private household, but only 47 percent of the job openings in all occupations combined. Those with a high school education or less filled over three-fourths of the jobs for waiters and waitresses in 1980. Less than one-fifth of the entrants had some for mal postsecondary education while only 5 percent were college graduates. Seventy percent of the job openings for waiters and waitresses in 1980 were part-time positions, compared to 56 percent for all service workers, except private household, and only 34 percent for all occupations com bined. Persons 15-24 years old filled three-fourths of these part-time jobs. The availability of part-time jobs that do not interfere with other responsibilities makes this occupation attractive to students and homemakers. Employment, 1980 ...................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ............ Average annual openings, 1980-90 .......................................... Growth ........................................ Replacem ent............................... 1,711,000 2,072,000 21.1 2,188,000 27.8 788,000 36,000 752,000 823,000 48,000 775,000 Welders and flamecutters Training. Welding jobs differ in the degree of skill they require. Welding machine operators can learn the required procedures in several hours, while skilled man ual welders need years of on-the-job training to master their craft. Most workers start as welders’ helpers. Some participate in formal training programs to attain entry level skills. Programs are available in high schools, vo cational-technical institutes, trade schools, and commu nity colleges. The length of these programs varies; trade school programs generally take from 6 months to 1 year to complete. A few employers provide welding appren ticeships that generally last 3 to 4 years. Skilled man ual welders who perform critical welding work such as that on oil pipelines or nuclear reactor components may be required to pass an examination of their weld ing skills and become “certified.” In 1979-80, approximately 37,000 persons completed public vocational education programs in welding. An other 12,000 individuals completed welding programs in private trade schools and nearly 2,000 youths com pleted Job Corps training. Not all of these took up welding; many entered occupations that require only the occasional application of welding skills, while others pursued careers unrelated to welding. Employment patterns. Employment of welders and flamecutters is projected to grow at least as fast as the average for all occupations through the 1980’s. The ac tual increase in the number of welders will be deter mined largely by the rate of expansion in the industries although graduates of these programs don’t always be come welders. Welding skills are applicable in many occupations. Job opportunities in the 1980’s are not expected to be equally favorable for all kinds of welders. The ro bot welding systems that are being introduced on manu facturing lines are eliminating the jobs of welding ma chine operators, although their full effect will depend on how rapidly and extensively the new technology is adopted. For many machine welding occupations, it is likely that automation will slow employment growth in the coming years. Highly skilled welders are not ex pected to be affected by automation for the foreseeable future, however, and could experience sharply increased demand if nuclear power regains favor or if synthetic fuels become economical. Job openings are expected to vary geographically, too; the best prospects will be in the Sunbelt and Western States. producing heavy machinery, appliances, and the thou sands of other products that welders help make. Through the 1980’s, job openings due to employment growth and replacement needs are projected to aver age between 105,000 and 120,000 each year, which .places welding among those occupations with the largest number of openings. Most openings are expected to arise because of replacement needs. Welders and flamecutters are particularly vulnerable to periodic layoffs for factory retooling, and to eco nomic downturns such as that in 1980. During that year, about half of all those who left the occupation became unemployed. Many of these workers are skilled and form a pool of potential reentrants who will resume working when jobs become available. Thus, although many openings for welders are expected during the 1980’s, those seeking a first job may encounter consid erable competition from experienced welders who are unemployed. Furthermore, employers tend to fill va cancies for machine welders from the ranks of company employees such as assemblers or helpers. Over half of those entering welding in 1980 transferred from another job. Those who have recently completed vocational training programs in welding will fill some openings, Employment, 1980 ..................... Projected employment, 1990 .... Percent change, 1980-90 ........... Average annual openings, 1980-90 ......................................... G r o w th ....................................... Replacem ent.............................. 62 573.000 696.000 21.6 - 106,000 12,000 - 94,000 - 784,000 36.9 121,000 2 1 ,0 0 0 100,000 Appendix A. Assumptions and Methods Used in Preparing Employment Projections Real GNP then is calculated by subtracting assumed unemployment from the labor force projection and mul tiplying the result by a projection of output per worker. The estimates of future output per worker are based on an analysis of trends in productivity (output per workhour) and changes in average weekly hours of work. Next, the projection of GN P is divided among its major components: Consumer expenditures, investment, government expenditures—Federal, State, and lo cal—and net exports. These estimates of GN P by ma jor component are derived using an economic model and by making assumptions about fiscal policy, taxes, and other major economic variables. Each of these ma jor GNP components is in turn broken down by pro ducing industry. Consumer expenditures, for example, are divided among industries producing goods and serv ices such as housing, food, automobiles, medical care, and education. Once estimates are developed for these products and services, they are translated into detailed projections of industry output, not only for the industries producing the final product—such as automobiles—but also for the industries that provide electric power, transporta tion, component parts, and other inputs required in the production process. Input-output tables developed by the Department of Commerce and modified by BLS are used to estimate output. By using estimates of future output per workhour based on studies of productivity and technological trends for each industry, industry employment projec tions are derived from the output estimates. In addition, many detailed industries are studied using regression analysis. In these studies, equations are developed that relate employment by industry to combinations of eco nomic variables, such as population and income, that are considered determinants of long-run changes in em ployment. The industry employment projections devel oped through these studies are evaluated with data gen erated by the basic model to develop the final industry employment projections. They also are used to develop projections for industries that are not included in the basic model. The Bureau’s system for projecting economic and employment developments is comprised of a series of closely related projections encompassing the labor force, gross national product (GNP), industrial output and productivity, and employment in detailed industry groups and detailed occupations. ASSUMPTIONS The Bureau has prepared three different sets of as sumptions, or scenarios, regarding economic growth through the 1980’s. The assumptions concern fiscal policy, demographic trends, productivity, price levels, and similar factors through the decade. The low-trend scenario assumes continuing high inflation, low produc tivity growth, and moderate expansion in real produc tion. The high-trend I version assumes marked improve ment in both inflation and productivity, greater labor force growth, and higher real production. Finally, the high-trend II version assumes labor force growth con sistent with the low trend, but greater productivity gains and less inflation than in the high-trend I version. D e tailed information about these assumptions is presented in Economic Projections to 1990, BLS Bulletin 2121. METHODS Labor force, GNP, and industry output and employment Beginning with population projections by age and sex developed by the Bureau of the Census, an estimate of the labor force is derived using projected labor force participation rates for each population group. In devel oping participation rates, the Bureau takes into account a variety of factors that affect decisions to enter the la bor force, such as school attendance, retirement prac tices, and family responsibilities. 63 Occupational employment industry were applied to 1980 estimates of total wage and salary employment in that industry. The staffing patterns for the 1980 matrix were developed from the OES surveys of manufacturing industries and Federal Government conducted in 1977, of several nonmanu facturing industries conducted in 1978, and of most of the balance of nonmanufacturing conducted in 1979. For hospitals and railroads, 1976 data were used since no later data were available. The Bureau’s current em ployment statistics (CES) survey was the source of the 1980 annual average industry employment. The method used to develop the 1990 occupational projections incorporated an industry-occupation matrix as the basic analytical tool. The general approach was to develop base-year (1980) estimates of occupational staffing patterns of industries, project these patterns to the target year of the projections (1990), and multiply the projected patterns by projected industry employ ment levels. The products—projected occupational em ployment by industry—were then summed across in dustries to derive an estimate of projected total employ ment by occupation. This basic approach has been used by BLS to de velop occupational projections since the mid-1960’s. The step-by-step procedures used in developing the 1980-90 projections, however, were somewhat differ ent from those used in previous years, in large part be cause the primary data base for occupational employ ment changed from the decennial census and the Cur rent Population Survey (CPS) to the Occupational Em ployment Statistics (OES) surveys. One result of this change was an increase in the size of the matrix to 1,678 detailed occupations in 378 industries (primarily 3-digit SIC detail) from 377 occupations and 201 industries in the 1970-census-based matrix. Wage and salary workers in agriculture and private house holds. Base-year estimates of wage and salary worker employment in agriculture and private households were developed from data in the 1980 Current Population Survey. The occupational distributions were based largely on the 1978 census-based matrix. Those esti mates were based on 1970 census data modified by 197178 CPS trends in large occupations in these industries. Since the occupational configuration of the matrix was based on the OES survey classification scheme, the 1978 census matrix employment data for 377 detailed occu pations were distributed into the 1,678 detailed occu pations in the OES-based matrix. In this procedure, CPS data were generally used as control totals, which were distributed into appropriate detailed OES-matrix occu pations. This distribution was based on established re lationships between the census and OES occupational classifications. Many analytical judgments were neces sary to establish relationships for many occupations be cause a perfect match between OES and CPS occupa tions was not always possible. Base-year estimates Separate estimates of 1980 employment were devel oped for wage and salary workers in OES survey in dustries, for wage and salary workers in agriculture and private households, and for self-employed and unpaid family workers. Data on wage and salary worker oc cupational employment were developed in an indus try-occupation matrix format. Estimates of occupational employment of self-employed and unpaid family workers were developed at the total (all industry) level only. They were added to the total of wage and salary workers to derive estimates of employment by detailed occupation for the entire economy. Self-employed and unpaid family workers. Base-year es timates of self-employed and unpaid family workers by occupation were based on 1980 CPS annual averages, as in previous census-based matrices, since no alterna tive data series exist. Similar to the procedure used for wage and salary workers in agriculture and private households, the employment data in the detailed census matrix occupations were distributed to the 1,678 occu pations in the OES-survey-based matrix. In general, CPS data were used as control totals, and the distribu tions were based largely on the distribution of OES wage and salary employment unless other data were available or judgment derived from analyses indicated that this procedure would result in incorrect data. For example, certain jobs found only in government (such as health inspector) often fell into a broader CPS cate gory (inspector) which contained self-employed and unpaid family workers. In such cases, the distribution was not based on the wage and salary worker distribution. Wage and salary workers in OES survey industries. Base-year estimates were derived from the OES sur veys for all industries except agriculture and private households, which are not included in the OES survey program. The OES surveys are conducted by mail from a sample of employers in each industry. They are con ducted on a 3-year cycle—manufacturing industries the first year and nonmanufacturing industries divided in the other 2 years of the cycle. To develop occupational employment estimates for 1980, the occupational staff ing patterns from the most recent OES survey for each 64 Data for self-employed and unpaid family workers were developed only at the all-industry level because of the unreliability of these data at the detailed industry level. tions was made to OES survey occupations based on the distribution of 1980 data. These distributions were then reviewed and changes made where deemed ap propriate. The resulting distribution was applied to pro jected totals for self-employed and unpaid family workers developed through the Bureau’s economic model. Projections Wage and salary workers in OES survey industries. The basic procedure for projecting occupational employ ment was to develop data on past trends in the propor tion of employment in each industry represented by each detailed occupation and to extrapolate this trend to the target year. These initial projections were then reviewed in detail for consistency with knowledge about technological change and other factors affecting the occupational composition of industries. Changes in the ratios developed through analytical judgments were placed in an updated matrix which was iterated to force it to add to 100 percent in each industry. The final step in the procedure was to apply the projected staffing pattern to projected industry employment totals. Total wage and salary employment in an occupation was ob tained by summing across industries. Because of changes in the occupational content of the OES surveys from one year to the next, changes in the Standard Industrial Classification between the last two OES surveys for some industries, and other factors, technical problems were encountered in developing data on trends in staff ing patterns for several industries. These problems are discussed in greater detail in BLS Economic Growth Model System Used fo r Projections to 1990, BLS Bulletin 2112. Total occupational employment. To develop total em ployment estimates by occupation, employment of wage and salary workers was added to totals of self-employed and unpaid family workers. With the exception of table C -l, projected employment data are presented in this bulletin for the low alternative and the higher of the two high alternatives. Unlike previous estimates of total na tional employment, the totals represent the number of jobs by occupation, not the number of persons employed by occupation. These totals are different because a person may have more than one job. The dif ference between the projected number of jobs and the projected number of persons employed in 1990 is roughly 7 percent. Differences between the OES- and census-based matrices There are significant differences between the national occupational employment data developed through the two matrices. The differences result largely from dif ferences in the primary surveys that provide the data for each matrix—the decennial census and the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the census-based matrix and the OES surveys for the OES-based matrix. The important differences in the data are as follows: 1. In the census and the CPS, which are surveys of households, individuals with two or more jobs are counted only in their primary occupation. The OES surveys, which are surveys of employers, count jobs rather than individuals. Workers on the payrolls of two or more employers (establishments) are counted in the occupation held in each establishment. The distribution patterns differ between the two surveys because the occupational distribution of secondary jobs differs from that of primary jobs. 2. In the census and the CPS, persons on unpaid ab sences are counted as employed. In the OES sur veys (as in the CES), these individuals are not in cluded in the employment totals. 3. The reference date of the census is April 1. The CPS annual averages reflect monthly data collected in the week containing the 12th of the month. The OES surveys use the 12th of April, May, or June, depending upon which month shows the least yearto-year seasonal change for that industry. 4. The census and the CPS cover all classes of workers: private wage and salary workers (including agricul ture and private household workers), government Wage and salary workers in agriculture and private house holds. The initial projected 1990 staffing patterns, or ratios, for the agriculture and private household sectors were taken directly from the 1990 census-based matrix developed by the Bureau in 1978. These projected ra tios were analyzed based on data that became available after the earlier matrix was developed, and a few ratios were adjusted. The census-based occupational distribu tion was converted to the OES survey distribution in a manner similar to the method used to develop the wage and salary worker base-year matrix described above. The projected ratios were then applied to the 1990 industry employment projections. The resulting em ployment and ratios were reviewed in detail in the same manner as for wage and salary workers in OES survey industries. Changes in patterns that resulted from this review were incorporated into the final matrix. Self-employed and unpaid family workers. To develop the projections, the percent distributions of self-em ployed and unpaid family workers by occupation from 1972-80 CPS data were extrapolated to 1990 and forced to add to 100 percent. A distribution of these propor 65 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. workers, self-employed workers, and unpaid family specific; different industries receive different ques workers. The OES surveys do not cover agricul tionnaires. It is believed that the magnitude of the tural and and private household workers or self-em coding error is smaller in the OES surveys for these ployed and unpaid family workers. reasons. The census and the CPS do not include workers 10. The 1970 census distributed occupational employ under 16 years of age. In the OES surveys, those ment into 201 industries, generally combinations of under 16 years of age are included if they are on 2-, 3-, or 4-digit industries based on the 1967 Stand the payrolls of establishments within the scope of ard Industrial Classification (SIC). The OES sur the survey. veys collect data for 378 industries by 3-digit SIC. In the OES surveys, each occupation implies a spe Since 1976, the surveys have been based on the 1972 cific skill level, as defined in each survey question SIC (as revised in 1977) and match the industry naire. In the census and the CPS, job titles provided classification in other BLS surveys. by respondents are grouped into categories which A comparison was made of the wage and salary em often include workers with greatly different skill ployment levels for 105 detailed occupations that were levels. definitionally comparable between the 1978 In the OES surveys, respondents are instructed to census-based matrix (the last national census matrix pro report individuals who perform more than one job duced) and the 1978 OES-based matrix (the first OES in the occupation of the job that requires the high matrix produced). OES-based matrix employment was est skill level. In responding to the census or the higher than census-based matrix employment in 52 of CPS, individuals report themselves in the occupa the comparable occupations, and lower in the remain tion in which they work the most hours during the ing 53. The range was from 229 percent higher than reference period. census-based employment to 49 percent lower. The av The census and the CPS are generally completed erage of the difference for all 105 comparable occupa by one individual who reports for all members of tions was 31 percent. In numbers, the range was from the household. Significant error can result from about 327,000 more stock clerks in the OES matrix to proxy respondents reporting occupations inac almost 1.3 million fewer secretaries. curately. According to analyses, individuals in the The distribution of employment differences was census and CPS tend to upgrade their occupation. highly skewed, reflecting several occupations where The OES surveys are completed by an official of OES-based employment was much higher than the responding establishment, generally from per census-based employment. Differences for most occu sonnel or payroll records. pations, however, were much smaller than these In the census and the CPS, responses are coded into extremes. As the following tabulation shows, 7 out of detailed occupational categories by coding clerks at 10 occupations had differences lower than 30 percent, the Bureau of the Census. There is little information and more than one-half had differences under 20 on the survey form to use in coding occupations, percent. usually only a job title and some description of ma Differences between census-based and jor duties. As a result, there is the potential for sig Cumulative Percent o f OES survey-based wage and salary percent occupations nificant coding error. A similar problem exists in employment, 1978 coding industries. In contrast, in the OES surveys, 30 30 Less than 10 percent........................... 54 24 10 to 19 percent ................................... employers code the occupations. The questionnaire 71 17 20 to 29 percent ................................... has specific occupational definitions for respondents 81 10 30 to 39 percent ................................... to classify their employees, regardless of job titles 89 8 40 to 50 percent ................................... 100 11 50 or more p ercen t............................. within the firm. The occupations are also industry 66 Appendix B. Estimating Replacement Needs In developing information about changes in labor force status and occupation for 1980-81, several factors were considered which affected the selection of the specific monthly data to be included in the matched sample. One consideration was the availability of addi tional information from questions about occupational mobility added to the January 1981 CPS questionnaire. As discussed below, occupational mobility data from the January 1981 CPS were used in conjunction with matched data to estimate replacement needs. Because occupational mobility data were available only for Janu ary 1980-81, matched data with that period as the mid point were sought to reduce the impact of varying eco nomic conditions. Other considerations were the ad vantages of increasing the sample size so that more de tailed occupations could be examined, and reducing the impact of seasonal factors. As a result of these consid erations, matched data describing movements over a 1-year period were prepared for each of 18 months be ginning with January 1979 to January 1980 data and ending with June 1980 to June 1981 data. Data in each monthly matched CPS sample were used to tabulate changes in the labor force status of workers 1 year later by occupation. Although economic conditions and unemployment rates varied, the propor tion of persons remaining employed from 1 year to the next was relatively stable from month to month, vary ing from a low of 86.7 percent to a high of 88.2 per cent. Variations in the data about persons becoming employed who previously were unemployed or out of the labor force also were of about the same magnitude in each monthly sample. Since the rates of movement were similar for all periods and a larger sample was desired to improve the relability of data for small oc cupations, the samples were combined to create a matched sample of 665,502 persons age 15 and older in the initial year of the matched data. Data about the same individual but for different months appear in the combined sample. Although the CPS monthly data come from 1979, 1980, and 1981, the combined sample is identified as “matched data”. To produce weighted data, CPS weights from the full sample for each month were applied to each per son and divided by the number of months for which matched data were prepared. The weighted numbers approximate 35 percent of those that would result if it Information on replacement needs previously pub lished by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was confined primarily to estimates of the need to replace individuals who permenantly left the labor force due to death or retirement.' Although the Bureau was aware that a sig nificant shortcoming of these replacement estimates was the failure to account for workers who left the labor force temporarily or transferred to another occupation, sufficient data were not available to develop estimates of such replacement needs. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, however, procedures for calculat ing replacement needs have been revised so that the data now include occupational transfers and all labor force separations except deaths. Sources of data Because of its design, the CPS permits data to be ob tained 1 year later for 50 percent of the households in each monthly survey.1 Each monthly CPS sample con 2 sists of eight subsamples of households termed rotation groups. One new rotation group is introduced into the sample each month. Each new group is surveyed for 4 consecutive months, excluded from the sample for the next 8 months, then surveyed again for the next 4 con secutive months. After being interviewed eight times, members of each group are dropped from the survey. Individuals in households in four of the rotation groups can be identified in surveys taken 1 year apart by match ing household, age, race, and sex information from mi cro data computer files. For matched individuals, data about changes in their labor force status and occupa tion can be tabulated for both periods. However, pri marily because those who move to another household during the year are not included in the survey a year later, data can only be produced for about 35 per cent—rather than about 50 percent—of the persons in the entire CPS sample. Longitudinal data computed from this matching process are the framework for the revised estimates of replacement needs. They have been termed “matched data” in the discussion which follows. 1Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, Volume I, Bulletin 1606 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1969), p. 47. 2 For additional information about the survey, see The Current Populaton Survey: Design and Methodology, Technical Paper 40 (Bu reau o f the Census, 1978). 67 were employed the previous year, 2.4 percent were un employed, and 8.4 percent were out of the labor force. Of those employed in 1981, 60.9 percent were employed in the same occupation in 1980 and 28.3 percent trans ferred from another occupation in 1980. Because these date overstate transfers for reasons stated above, the matched data about persons employed in the same oc cupation and those transferring in were adjusted using retrospective data. Table B-2 illustrates the occupational mobility data derived from the January 1981 CPS. It identifies the number of secretaries in January 1981 who were also employed in January 1980 (3,366,782) and the propor tion of that number (92.4 percent) who were employed as secretaries. This is significantly higher than the 60.9 percent shown in the matched data. For clarity, this proportion can be expressed as: were possible to match a complete monthly sample from year to year. Besides changes in an individual’s labor force status, the matched CPS data identify workers who change their occupation.’ However, matched data on occupa tional mobility significantly overstate actual movements because individuals may respond differently to the same CPS question about their occupation, responses may be recorded differently by interviewers, or recorded in formation may be coded differently by clerks.4 To surmount the overstatement of occupational change in the matched data, results of a CPS study of occupational mobility conducted during January 1981 that provided reliable data were merged with the matched sample. In the January 1981 CPS question naire, persons employed in Jaunary 1981 were asked to report their labor force status in January 1980 and, if employed, their occupation. Since only employed per sons were asked to respond to the supplemental ques tions, it was not possible to assess separations from the work force from these data: Individuals employed in January 1980 but not working in January 1981 could not be identified. The longitudinal data on occupational mobility from the January 1981 CPS are termed “ret rospective data” in the discussion that follows. The following example illustrates how matched data about changes in labor force status were merged with retrospective data about occupational mobility to pro duce data on labor force and occupational changes for secretaries. Those data have been termed “merged data.” The result is a composite description of move ments into, out of, and between occupations over a 1-year period. In developing the merged data, it was first necessary to develop separate tabulations of matched data and retrospective data. Table B-l—which presents matched data—indicates that 89.2 percent of secretaries in 1981 Number o f secretaries in January 1981 who also were secretaries in January 1980 _ 3,109,077 Number o f secretaries in January 1981 who were employed in any occupation in January 1980 _ <^4 3,366,782 The matched data in table B-l indicate that 1,189,596 individuals currently employed as secretaries had been employed in some occupation a year earlier. To esti mate the number who had been employed in the same occupation, but based on the January CPS data rather than the restrospective data, the following calculation was made: M atched data Retrospective data Number of secretaries in 1981 who had been employed in any oc cupation a year earlier 3 Movement between any o f the detailed, 3-digit occupations from the 1970 Census o f Population Classified Index o f Industries and Oc cupations (Bureau o f the Census, 1971). 4Cande L. Collins, “Comparison o f Month-to-Month Changes in Industry and Occupation Codes with Respondents Report o f Change: CPS Jobs Mobility Study,” Response Research Staff Report No. 75-5 (unpublished, Bureau o f the Census, May 15, 1975), table C, p. 7. 1,189,596 Number of secretaries in January 1981 who were secretaries in x January 1980 Number o f secretaries in January 1981 who were employed in any occupation in January 1980 x .924 Merged data Estimated number = o f secretaries in 1981 who were secretaries in 1980 = 1,098,592 Table B-1. 1980 labor force status of secretaries employed in 1981 1980 labor force status Source of data Total employed, 1981 Employed Total Matched data: Number .................................................................... Percent..................................................................... Merged data: Number .................................................................... Percent..................................................................... Same occupation Different occupation Unemployed Not in labor force 1,333,807 100.0 1,189,596 89.2 811,747 60.9 377,849 28.3 31,963 2.4 112,249 8.4 1,333,807 100.0 1,189,596 89.2 1,098,592 82.4 91,004 6.8 31,963 2.4 112,249 8.4 68 Table B-2. Secretaries in January 1981 who were employed in January 1980 ued working in January 1981 were secretaries. This proportion can be expressed as: Employed, January 1980 Source of data Total employed, January 1981 Retrospective data: Number............................ Percent............................ 3,366,782 100.0 Same occupation 3,109,077 92.4 Number o f secretaries in January 1980 who also were secretaries in January 1981 _ Different occupation 3,109,077 Number o f secretaries in January 1980 who were employed in any occupation in January 1981 257,705 7.7 _ ^ jq 3,415,395 This proportion from the January 1981 CPS was combined with matched data to produce merged data. The merged data in table B-3 indicate that 1,098,592 secretaries employed in 1980 were secretaries in 1981. The number employed in any occupation in 1981 was calculated as follows: This calculation resulted in an estimate of 1,098,592 persons in the matched sample who worked as secre taries in 1981 and 1980. The difference between that number and the number of secretaries in 1981 who had been employed in any occupation a year earlier (1,189,596 - 1,098,592 = 91,004) identified the number of persons who transferred into secretarial positions. The merged data about movements into occupations are presented in table B-l. Preparing information about movements out of oc cupations also entails merging CPS data. Table B-3 presents 1981 information about individuals employed as secretaries in 1980. It indicates that 811,747 secre taries in 1980 continued to be secretaries in 1981. Note that the matched data in table B-l identified that same number of secretaries in 1981 as having been secretaries in 1980. (The proportion remaining in the same occu pation, however, viewed from the previous or the cur rent year, will be different because the base employ ment will differ from year to year.) The first step in adjusting the matched data about movements out of an occupation is to substitute the merged data estimate of the absolute number of persons remaining in the same occupation from table B-l (1,098,592) for that in table B-3. Once the number of secretaries employed in 1980 who continued working as secretaries has been identi fied, January 1981 retrospective data can be used to es timate occupational transfers. Table B-4 presents information about secretaries em ployed in January 1980 who remained employed in any occupation in January 1981 and about those who con tinued to work as secretaries. It indicates that 91.0 percent of all secretaries in January 1980 who contin Retrospective data Matched data Number o f secretaries in January 1980 who were secretaries in January 1981 Secretaries in 1980 who were secretaries in 1981 Number o f secretaries in January 1980 who were employed in any occupation in January 1981 1,098,592 Merged data Estimated number = o f secretaries in 1980 who were secretaries in 1981 = 1,206,978 - .910 The difference between the number of secretaries in 1980 who remained employed in any occupation in 1981 and those who continued working as secretaries (1,206,978 - 1,098,592 = 108,386) is the estimated num ber of secretaries transferring out of the occuption. Un like the matched data about movements into occupa tions, total employment of secretaries in 1980 must be calculated by summing the data about their 1981 activi ties before proportions for each are calculated. The re sultant merged data provide a composite description of labor market activities of secretaries and are presented in table B-3. Table B-3. 1981 labor force status of secretaries employed in 1980 1981 labor force status Source of data Total employed, 1980 Employed Total Matched data: Number .......................................................................... Percent........................................................................... Merged data: Number .......................................................................... Percent........................................................................... Same occupation Different occupation Unemployed Not in labor force 1,323,086 100.0 1,189,428 89.9 811,747 61.4 377,681 28.6 27,264 2.1 106,395 8.1 1,340,637 100.0 1,206,978 90.0 1,098,592 82.0 108,386 8.1 27,264 2.0 106,395 7.9 69 example, employment of engineers increased from 1980 to 1981 and 93.8 percent remained in the same occupa tion. Thus the replacement rate—those not in the same occupation—was 6.2 percent (100.0 - 93.8 = 6.2 per cent). In the case of secretaries and some other occu pations, employment declined and active replacement needs were not equal to the proportion of persons leav ing the occuption during 1980-81. As shown in tables B-l and B-3, secretarial employment declined from 1,340,637 in 1980 to 1,333,807 in 1981 a decline of 0.5 percent. Table B-3 indicates that 18.0 percent (100.0 82.0 = 18.0 percent) left the occupation from 1980 to 1981. Because employment declined, however, not all those leaving secretarial jobs were replaced during 198081. Thus, the proportion leaving the occupation was reduced by the decline in employment to determine the proportion who were replaced. For secretaries, replace ment needs were calculated as 17.5 percent (18.0 - 0.5 = 17.5 percent). Replacement rates for 1980-81 provide valuable in sights into the major source of employment opportuni ties. However, 1980-81 was atypical in that employment grew slowly and unemployment was increasing, char acteristics that are inconsistent with assumptions for the projected period. As a result, 1980-81 replacement rates might be affected by economic conditions and be inap propriate for use in another time period. In order to assess the impact of reduced economic activity on the 1980-81 replacement rates, occupational employment change and separation data were compared with those for 1977-78. Merged data prepared from matched data for 1977-78 and January 1978 retrospec tive data about transfer were available and permitted consistent comparisons of the 1980-81 data with those from a period of rapid employment growth and declin ing unemployment. Because economic conditions dif fered significantly between 1977-78 and 1980-81, differ ences in the data for movements reflect the impact of reduced economic activity and permit adjustments to the projected replacement rates. Data for the major oc cupational groups illustrate the process used to project replacement rates for each occupation. Table B-5 contains information about occupational separations for 1977-78 and 1980-81. The expectation that movement into unemployment would increase dur ing periods of economic decline was confirmed by the data for craft workers; operatives, except transport; transport operatives; nonfarm laborers; and farm laborers. Except for nonfarm and farm laborers, the in creased movement into unemployment was accom panied by employment declines, which provided another indication that the occupation is affected by economic conditions. Data for the other groups showed lesser changes in the proportion of persons becoming unemployed, indicating that economic activity has little effect on separations. Table B-4. Secretaries in January 1980 who were employed in January 1981 Employed, January 1981 Source of data Retrospective data: Number............................ Percent............................ Total employed, January 1980 3,415,395 100.0 Same occupation 3,109,077 91.0 Different occupation 306,858 9.0 Developing replacement needs Once data about movements into, out of, and between occupations have been developed, they can be used to produce informaton about replacement needs. When employment in an occupation increases from 1 year to the next, replacement needs equal the number of per sons who leave the occupation for any reason—trans fers, labor force separations, and those who become unemployed.5When employment declines, replacement needs equal the number who leave minus the decline in employment. It may not seem appropriate to include movements into unemployment in estimates of replacement needs since individuals who become unemployed are not re placed. However, even though a job is not created when a person becomes unemployed, openings due to move ment into unemployment are not captured in growth estimates by changes in employment levels, as the fol lowing example illustrates. Assume in any given time period that 500 employees in a specific occupation in one firm are laid off perma nently and become unemployed. If employment in that same occupation increases in other firms during the same period by 500 workers, the decline in employment caused by the 500 who became unemployed will be offset, and the change in employment will be measured as zero. Without counting workers who become un employed in replacement needs, the 500 openings will not be accounted for in the openings estimates. There fore, because job openings due to growth are under stated by the way change in employment is measured, it is appropriate to include movement from employment to unemployment in estimating job openings due to re placement needs. The methodology for estimating replacement needs for specific occupations varied depending on whether employment increased or decreased from 1 year to the next in the matched data. For those occupations in which employment increased, the proportion of em ployees who had to be replaced was equated to the proportion of 1980 employees identified in the merged data as not being in the same occupation in 1981. For 5 Merged data do not include those who leave the labor force be cause o f death because records are based on data for two points in time for the same individual. See “Data limitations” section for ad ditional information. 70 Table B-5. Comparison of occupational separation rates, 1977-78 and 1980-81 (Percent) Occupational separations Occupational group Professional and technical workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Managers and administrators, except farm: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Sales workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Clerical workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Craft and kindred workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Operatives, except transport: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Transport equipment operatives: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Nonfarm laborers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Farmers and farm managers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Farm laborers and supervisors: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Service workers, except private household: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Private household workers: 1977-78 .......................................................................... 1980-81 .......................................................................... Not working Employed, base year Total Occupational transfers Total Unemployed Not in the labor force 100.0 100.0 12.3 11.2 5.8 5.2 6.5 6.0 1.2 1.2 5.3 4.8 100.0 100.0 12.1 11.6 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7 1.2 1.5 4.6 4.1 100.0 100.0 23.4 23.4 11.6 11.0 11.8 12.4 2.4 2.6 9.4 9.8 100.0 100.0 21.4 21.6 10.6 10.5 10.8 11.1 2.3 2.4 8.5 8.7 100.0 100.0 13.9 16.0 7.0 7.2 6.9 8.9 2.5 4.3 4.4 4.5 100.0 100.0 22.7 24.0 11.8 9.7 10.9 14.4 3.9 7.1 7.0 7.3 100.0 100.0 18.9 19.4 11.2 9.2 7.7 10.3 2.8 5.2 5.0 5.1 100.0 100.0 31.8 33.1 16.4 13.8 15.4 19.3 5.5 8.2 9.9 11.1 100.0 100.0 13.1 12.4 3.0 2.1 10.1 10.2 .2 .4 9.9 9.9 100.0 100.0 32.9 28.4 11.4 7.5 21.5 20.9 2.8 3.5 18.7 17.4 100.0 100.0 28.0 27.5 11.7 10.7 16.3 16.8 3.6 3.9 12.7 12.8 100.0 100.0 40.1 39.6 4.5 3.0 35.6 36.7 4.7 4.1 30.9 32.6 SOURCE: Merged data. Reduced economic activity also seemed to be re flected in reduced transfers among operatives, laborers, and private household workers. This may reflect a re luctance to change jobs, or a lack of opportunity to transfer to other jobs, or both. Because the relationship between occupational transfers and economic activity is complex, the 1980-81 transfer data will be used with out adjustment for the projected period. This could re sult in replacement needs being understated for some occupations. The data about separations in table B-5 are virtually the same for professional and technical workers; man agers and administrators; sales workers; clerical workers; farmers; and service workers for both 1977-78 and 1980-81, indicating that these occupations are not significantly affected by different economic conditions. In the case of private household workers, a decline in transfers and movement into unemployment was offset by increased labor force separations, leaving the over all separation rate at about the same level. Because re placement rates for these occupational groups were sta ble, they have been used as the projected rates. In contrast, employment of craft workers; operatives, except transport; and transport operatives declined in 1980-81 compared with 1977-78, indicating sensitivity to reduced activity in the construction and manufac turing industries. In these cases, the 1980-81 replace ment rate was adjusted by reducing the separation rate by the percentage decline in employment since not all workers leaving the occupation were replaced. For the projected period, employment in each of these occupa tions is expected to increase, and no reduction in sepa rations is appropriate. However, the 1980-81 separation rate for each of these occupations—as well as that for nonfarm and farm laborers—is inflated by increased movements into unemployment. To produce projected replacement rates for these groups, 1977-78 data about movements into unemployment are substituted for 198081 data. The occupational separation rate that results from combining 1977-78 data about movement into un employment with 1980-81 data about other separations is the projected replacement rate. Because the impact of occupational transfers has not been taken into ac count, these rates may understate replacement needs. As a larger data base of matched and retrospective data is built up over the years, research will be conducted 71 to see if the transfer rates can be adjusted for changes in economic conditions. Projected annual replacement needs for 1980-90 were calculated by applying the replacement rate developed from the merged data to employment for the mid-point of the projected period. Because OES or other data are used to determine current and projected employment, each occupation has been scrutinized and replacement needs data developed only when the CPS and the OES or other data source are judged to be definitionally consistent. Table B-7. Estimated rates of entering and leaving the labor force for men in 1970 by age (Entries per 1,000 persons in the stationary population; separations per 1,000 persons in the stationary labor force) 1970 Entry rate Total 16-19 ............................... 20-24 ............................... 25-29 ............................... 30-34 ............................... 35-39 ............................... 40-44 ............................... 45-49 ............................... 50-54 ............................... 55-59 ............................... 60-64 ............................... 65-69 ............................... 70-74 ............................... 75-79 ............................... 80-84 ............................... 85+ ................................. Comparison with previous data Table B-6 presents a comparison of replacement rates based on the projected merged CPS data with rates based on the working life table, used in the 1980 edi tion of this publication. The CPS data generally yield rates 3-5 times those based on the working life table even though the CPS rates exclude data about deaths. The differences between the rates are attributable to differences in the concept of replacement needs. In previous studies, BLS used the working life table to estimate job openings resulting from deaths and re tirements. 6 In order to obtain a death and retirement rate for an occupation, the combined death and retire ment rate for a specific age-sex group in the table was applied to occupational employment in that age-sex group; the weighted average of all age-sex groups was then used as the separation rate for the occupation. Working life tables are constructed from differences in labor force participation rates for persons of differ ent ages. Because a labor force participation rate meas ures the proportion of any age group which is in the 6Tomorrow's Manpower Needs, (Percent) Merged CPS data 3 Total ................................................................. 3.8 19.4 Professional and technical workers.................. Managers and administrators, except farm ...... Sales workers .................................................... Clerical workers ................................................. Craft and kindred workers................................. Operatives, except transport............................. Transport equipment operatives........................ Nonfarm laborers................................................ Farmers and farm managers ............................ Farm laborers and supervisors.......................... Service workers, except private household...... Private household workers................................ 3.0 3.8 3.8 5.1 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.6 7.2 4.1 4.6 6.6 11.2 11.6 23.3 21.6 14.1 20.9 17.0 30.4 9.1 27.7 27.5 39.6 1 Working life table data include deaths; merged CPS data do not. 2 Annual rates for both sexes used in O c c u p a tio n a l P ro je c tio n s and Training D ata , 1 98 0 E dition. 3 Annual rates for both sexes used in - Due to withdrawal 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.5 4.4 6.7 11.0 17.2 32.9 103.3 107.7 166.4 169.3 284.6 - 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.3 3.1 4.9 7.6 11.8 18.6 28.4 43.6 61.8 89.6 130.6 - 0.2 1.3 1.8 3.4 5.4 14.3 74.9 127.1 104.6 79.7 154.0 - _ labor force, differences in rates measure the net of sepa rations from and accessions to the labor force. In the working life table, a positive difference in rates—the result of an increasing labor force participation rate— is considered as an accession. A negative difference in the rates—the result of a declining labor force partici pation rate—is considered as a separation due to retirement. Table B-7 presents part of the 1970 table of working life for males. Death is responsible for all separations through 30 years of age; there are no separations be cause of retirement below age 30. However, there are accessions to the labor force, which reflect an increas ing labor force participation rate. For men age 30 and over, the table shows no accessions but does show sepa rations because of retirement as the labor force partici pation rate declines. Like accesssions, separations be cause of retirement are a net measure—the difference between persons entering or reentering and those leav ing the labor force. Consequently, using retirement rates from working life tables to compute the absolute num ber of job openings from replacement needs understates the actual by the number of persons entering or reen tering the labor force. For example, assume one 40year-old man is employed while a second man, also age 40, is outside the labor force. If, after a year, the first man has left the labor force, perhaps because of a per manent injury, a labor force separation and a job open ing will have occurred. If the second man fills the job opening created by the first, a labor force accession oc curs. However, if there were no other changes, there would be no change in the labor force participation rate of 40- and 41-year-old males. As a result, an estimate of job openings based on change in labor force partici Table B-6. Comparison of occupational replacement rates based on working life table and rates based on merged CPS data1 Working life table 2 476.0 84.2 12.1 Due to death SOURCE: L en g th o f W orking L ife fo r M e n a n d W om en, 1970, Special Labor Force Report 187 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1979), table 3 pp. 47-55. Occupational group Separation rate Age O c c u p a tio n a l P ro jectio n s a n d Training D ata , 1 9 8 2 E dition . 72 longitudinal data, response and coding errors create false measures of movement. If employed persons clas sified as not in the labor force during the first survey are classified as employed during the second, the matched data will indicate movement where none occurred. While response errors in the CPS are known to exist and have been examined, their impact on the accuracy of CPS matched longitudinal data has not been conclu sively determined. A recent study determined that re sponse errors in the CPS matched longitudinal data off set each other in much the same manner as in cross-sec tional data.9 Table B-8 presents matched and retrospec tive longitudinal information about the same persons from January 1977 to January 1978. As expected, the matched data show more mobility than the retrospec tive, but the differences are small. There is no signifi cant difference in the ratio of movement from unemploy ment while the rates of movement from out of the la bor force differed by 15 percent. Because the retrospec tive data in table B-8 exclude information about persons who change residence and are not subject to the same response and coding errors as the matched data, the proportion of persons employed in both years is higher than that derived from the matched data. As shown in the last section, if data on persons who changed residence were included the proportion would be less. Errors in occupational classification also have been examined by the Census Bureau. A study comparing estimates of occupational mobility derived from match ed January 1972-73 data and the January 1973 retrospective data reported “ ...the level of occupational mobility (between major occupational groups) derived from the retrospective data is only about one-fifth that based on the matched comparison (4.2 percent vs. 22.8 percent.” 1 0 pation rates would be zero. Yet, an actual separation and a job opening did occur. Working life tables used by BLS in the past assumed that males, once in the labor force, remained until re tirement or death. The tables for women, however, in cluded temporary labor force separations because of marriage, or the presence of young children. These tem porary separations also were calculated using data about changes in the labor force participation rates for specific groups of females and, as a result, measure net rather than gross separations. Earlier this year the Bureau revised the methodology used in preparing working life tables.7 Matched CPS data about annual movements of individuals into and out of the labor force have replaced net separations based on changes in labor force participation rates. Be cause the new working life tables do not estimate total separations from an occupation, they have not been used to estimate replacement needs. Replacement rates based on CPS merged data differ conceptually from those computed from working life tables in that they measure total separations from the occupation. Total separations include occupational transfers—which account for about half of the total-and all labor force separations except deaths. Individuals who die while employed are not included in the total because the data are not available. This limitation to the data is discussed in the next section. Data limitations In evaluating the data, several limitations were iden tified. The most significant were biases in the matched data from response and coding errors, and the exclu sion of persons who died or who moved in the year between surveys. The first tends to overstate occupa tional separations while the others understate them. Each limitation is discussed below and, where possible, its impact on movements quantified. 9 Van Anthony, "Potential Effect o f Response Errors in the CPS on Measurements o f Labor Force Movements” (unpublished memo randum, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, February 26, 1980), p. 8 . 10 Paula J. Schneider, “Evaluation of the Occupation One-Year Ago Item in the January 1973 CPS” (unpublished, Bureau o f the Census, 1976), p. 3. Response and coding errors. The labor force status or occupation of some individuals in the CPS is reported incorrectly by respondents, or is misclassified or mis coded by interviewers or clerks. Such errors do not significantly affect cross-sectional data from the survey because the net error is small. For example, the monthly estimates include as employed some persons who should be classified as unemployed or not in the labor force and also include approximately the same number of per sons as unemployed or not in the labor force who should be classified as employed.8 As a result, the absolute number of employed persons in any month has little error. However, when CPS data are used to develop Table B-8. Comparison of January 1977-78 CPS matched data and January 1977-78 CPS retrospective data on labor force changes for persons remaining at the same residence Labor force status Shirley J. Smith, “New Worklife Estimates Reflect Changing Pro file o f Labor Force,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1982, pp. 15-20. 8 The Current Population Survey Reinterview Program January 1961 Through December 1966, Technical Paper 19 (Bureau o f the Census, 1968). 73 Total employed, 1978: Number.................................. Percent.................................. Employed, 1977 ....................... Unemployed, 1977 ................... Not in labor force, 1977 .......... Age 15, 1977 ............................ Retro Matched data spective data 31,070,978 100.0 86.9 4.0 7.8 1.3 31,070,978 100.0 87.9 4.0 6.8 1.3 Ratio, matched to retro spective data 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 variations in mortality rates by occupation.1 3 Profes sional and supervisory occupations—occupations in the highest social-economic level—had mortality rates ap proximately 60 percent those for the population. Depending on the occupation, excluding deaths probably understates replacement needs by .4 - .7 per cent. The lower figure is probably associated with oc cupations having the lowest occupational separation rates—those with the highest socioeconomic levels. Of course, the relative error of excluding deaths in the re placement rate depends on the occupational replace ment rate. For the 44 CPS occupations with rates less than 5 percent—the decile with the lowest separation rates—the error may be greater than 10 percent. How ever, for the 44 with separation rates exceeding 35 per cent—the decile with the highest separation rates—the error is less than 1.5 percent. Overall, 80 percent of the CPS occupations probably have a relative error in the replacement rate of 1.5 to 10 percent due to the exclu sion of deaths. This and other studies of matched and retrospective data conclude that retrospective data consistently underestimate, and matched data overestimate, occupa tional mobility. The Census Bureau studies convincingly established that the matched CPS data significantly overstated oc cupational transfers but were less convincing in estab lishing that the retrospective data significantly under state these movements; data from a study by the Office of Education showed approximately the same rate of separations among teachers as the retrospective data." In the absence of an alternative, therefore, the restropective data were selected as the more reliable and the lower limit for estimates of occupational transfers. Exclusion o f persons who die. Individuals who die be tween surveys do not appear in both surveys and can not be part of the CPS matched data file. Thus the CPS matched data exclude occupational separations due to deaths. Since some employed individuals die and must be replaced, however, the replacement needs data are biased downwards to the extent that they exclude deaths. One measure of the bias that exclusion of deaths has on replacement needs is the mortality rate for employed persons estimated by using mortality data for the population and census-based age and sex employment data. For all employed persons in 1980, this mortality rate was 0.6 percent and varied between occupations with differences in the age and sex distribution of employees. However, available data indicate that apply ing mortality data for the population to occupational employment data overstates estimates of replacement needs because (1) mortality among employed persons is less than that of the population as a whole and (2) mor tality varies by occupation. Comparisons of Social Security mortality data for employed persons and mor tality data for the general population show that the mor tality rate for employed perios is about 80 percent that of the population.1 1 2 The difference reflects the fact that employed persons are healthier: They are less likely to be disabled or suffer from chronic diseases. Another study using data from a large company has identified Exclusion o f persons who change residence. The matched sample was created by identifying persons who ap peared in the monthly CPS sample in two consecutive years. Unfortunately, some individuals who were in the first sample and should have been in the sample a year later could not be identified. Some of these were per sons who died. Others probably were missed because of coding errors or other data processing problems. However, individuals who changed their residence were a more significant problem.1 For any rotation group in 4 the sample, CPS interviewers obtain information about individuals at a specific address. Thus, individuals who move are not included in the sample a year later. A comparison of labor force and occupation status for persons who did and did not change residence is presented in table B-9 based on the retrospective data. Those persons employed in January 1981 who did not change residence also were less likely to have changed occupation or labor force status. B-9 also presents merged data. Although merged data exclude persons who move, the merged data on changes in occupation and labor force status are quite close to the information for all persons combined. Apparently the overstatement in movements resulting from response error is compen Teacher Turnover sated for by the exclusion of persons who moved. 11 A. Stafford Metz and Howard L.Fleischman, in Public Schools Fall 1968 to Fall 1969, DHEW Publication No. (OE) 74-11115 (Department o f Health, Education, and Welfare, Office o f Education, 1974), p.3. 12 Pierre Decoufle, “Letters to the Editor,” Journal o f Occupational Medicine, September 1977, tables 1 and 2, pp. 582-84; and A.J. McMichael, “Standardized Mortality Ratios and the ‘Healthy Worker Effect’: Scratching Beneath the Surface,” Journal o f Occupational Medicine, March 1976, pp. 165-68. 74 1 M. Gerald Ott, Benjamin B. Holder, and Ralph R. Langner, “D e 3 terminants of Mortality in our Industrial Population”, Journal o f Oc cupational Medicine, March 1976, table 7, p. 175. 14 For additional information about reasons for nonmatches see Con sistency o f Reporting o f Ethnic Origin in the Current Population Survey, Technical Paper 31 (Bureau o f the Census, 1974), appendix C. Table B-9. Changes in labor force status and occupation by residence status January 1980-81 residence status 1 Different residence Labor force status 1980-81 merged data Same residence Total Same State Same county Different county Different State Different country Total employed, 1981 ............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Employed, 1980 .................................................... Same occupation ............................................... Different occupation .......................................... Not working, 1980 ................................................ Age 15, 1980......................................................... 89.0 80.1 8.9 9.6 1.4 88.5 79.7 8.9 10.5 1.1 90.1 83.1 7.0 8.8 1.1 85.7 70.9 14.8 13.8 .6 78.8 58.8 20.1 20.5 .7 67.8 40.4 27.5 31.6 .5 39.9 20.1 19.8 60.1 .1 1 January 1981 CPS. 75 Appendix C. Detailed Occupational Projections groups: 4,000-4,999; 3,000-3,999; 2,000-2,999; 1,0001,999; and under 1,000. Because of the small size of the occupations, the employment estimates are unreliable. These lists are presented to give the reader some idea of the variety of occupations for which data are being collected through the Occupational Employment Sta tistics surveys. Definitions used to collect data on employment in these occupations appear in the OES Dictionary o f Occupations. This appendix presents estimates of 1980 employment and projections of 1990 employment by detailed occu pation. Table C-l provides 1980 estimates of employ ment, three alternative 1990 projections (see discussion of projections in appendix A), and the 1980-90 percent change for 670 detailed occupations. This table includes only occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher. Tables C-2 through C-6 list 893 occupations having fewer than 5,000 workers in 1980. These occu pations are listed alphabetically in five employment size 76 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Total, all occupations .......................................................................... 102,107.3 119,591.1 127,908.4 121,448.5 17.1 25.3 18.9 Professional, technical, and related workers............................................ 16,395.2 19,662.3 20,727.6 19,917.4 19.9 26.4 21.5 Engineers 1 ................................................................................................ Aeronautical and astronautical engineers.............................................. Chemical engineers................................................................................. Civil engineers ......................................................................................... Electrical engineers................................................................................. Industrial engineers................................................................................. Mechanical engineers.............................................................................. Metallurgical engineers............................................................................ Mining engineers ..................................................................................... Petroleum engineers................................................................................ All other engineers.................................................................................. 1,177.8 68.0 55.5 165.4 326.7 115.9 212.9 15.4 6.1 17.9 193.9 1,504.3 97.6 68.4 207.9 441.2 145.7 273.9 20.4 8.4 26.0 214.6 1,624.3 103.6 73.1 217.2 479.9 159.3 300.0 22.0 9.2 27.6 232.5 1,531.2 100.1 70.0 210.3 449.2 148.3 279.1 20.8 8.7 25.8 218.9 27.7 43.4 23.2 25.7 35.1 25.8 28.7 32.4 37.7 45.7 10.7 37.9 52.3 31.6 31.3 46.9 37.5 40.9 42.5 51.2 54.2 19.9 30.0 47.2 26.0 27.1 37.5 28.0 31.1 34.7 42.6 44.3 12.9 Life and physical scientists ...................................................................... Agricultural scientists............................................................................... Biological scientists.................................................................................. Chemists................................................................................................... Geologists ................................................................................................ Medical scientists.................................................................................... Physicists.................................................................................................. All other life and physical scientists....................................................... 253.8 19.8 44.8 93.6 39.8 8.1 20.5 27.1 300.2 21.6 51.2 112.9 51.7 9.4 23.1 30.3 317.3 22.7 54.1 119.5 54.9 9.7 24.4 32.0 305.6 22.1 52.5 115.0 52.0 9.4 23.6 31.1 18.2 9.1 14.1 20.6 30.1 15.6 12.5 11.6 25.0 14.3 20.7 27.6 38.2 19.4 19.0 18.1 20.4 11.5 17.0 22.8 30.7 15.8 14.8 14.5 Mathematical specialists........................................................................... Actuaries................................................................................................... Mathematicians........................................................................................ Statisticians.............................................................................................. All other mathematical specialists .......................................................... 52.0 7.8 12.7 26.5 5.0 61.7 10.9 14.4 30.9 5.6 65.8 11.6 15.2 33.2 5.8 63.3 11.3 14.7 31.6 5.7 18.7 39.5 13.2 16.7 10.9 26.5 48.3 20.0 25.2 16.3 21.6 44.8 15.8 19.3 13.2 Engineering and science technicians ....................................................... Broadcast technicians ............................................................................. Civil engineering technicians .................................................................. Drafters.................................................................................................... Electrical and electronic technicians ...................................................... Industrial engineering technicians........................................................... Mechanical engineering technicians....................................................... Surveyors.................................................................................................. All other engineering and science technicians ...................................... 1,267.9 16.5 24.6 321.6 359.5 32.4 48.5 61.3 403.4 1,578.0 17.8 30.7 411.1 466.3 40.2 60.9 72.9 478.0 1,700.8 18.4 31.6 445.3 513.8 43.6 67.1 78.0 503.0 1,610.1 17.8 31.1 418.8 480.3 40.8 62.2 75.4 483.8 24.5 7.5 24.8 27.9 29.7 24.0 25.5 18.8 18.5 34.1 11.4 28.4 38.5 42.9 34.4 38.2 27.2 24.7 27.0 7.7 26.2 30.2 33.6 25.7 28.1 22.9 19.9 Medical workers, except technicians....................................................... Chiropractors............................................................................................ Dentists ' .................................................................................................. Dietitians................................................................................................... Nurses, professional ................................................................................ Optometrists............................................................................................. Pharmacists.............................................................................................. Physicians, medical and osteopathic 1 ................................................... Podiatrists................................................................................................. Therapists................................................................................................. Inhalation therapists.............................................................................. Manual arts, music, and recreational therapists.................................. Occupational therapists........................................................................ Physical therapists................................................................................. Speech and hearing clinicians.............................................................. All other therapists................................................................................ Veterinarians............................................................................................ 2,198.7 23.0 170.7 44.2 2,932.6 27.0 208.3 60.9 3,099.2 29.5 222.7 64.5 2,958.0 27.8 212.4 62.4 1,104.0 1,541.5 1,617.4 1,550.9 27.1 141.2 491.1 12.1 149.6 18.3 23.6 19.0 34.2 35.2 19.3 35.5 32.7 157.5 625.6 16.1 216.5 26.1 34.6 30.9 51.6 51.6 21.8 46.6 35.5 169.9 664.6 17.5 226.8 27.4 37.2 32.5 54.5 52.8 22.3 50.8 33.1 155.2 631.2 16.5 218.9 26.3 35.3 31.3 52.3 51.8 21.9 49.6 33.4 17.2 22.0 37.6 39.6 21.0 11.5 27.4 32.6 44.7 42.3 46.7 62.7 50.9 46.6 12.6 31.1 41.0 28.1 30.4 45.8 46.5 31.3 20.3 35.3 44.3 51.6 49.5 58.0 71.4 59.4 50.2 15.2 42.9 34.5 20.7 24.4 41.0 40.5 22.4 9.9 28.5 35.8 46.4 43.1 49.9 64.9 53.0 47.4 13.4 39.4 Health technologists and technicians...................................................... Cytotechnologists.................................................................................... Dental hygienists..................................................................................... Dietetic technicians.................................................................................. EKG technicians...................................................................................... Health records technologists.................................................................. Licensed practical nurses 1 ..................................................................... Medical technicians.................................................................................. Medical laboratory technologists............................................................. Pharmacy helpers.................................................................................... Physical therapy technicians................................................................... Radiologic and nuclear medicine technicians........................................ 1,202.6 5.3 60.6 5.8 19.7 31.6 521.7 88.2 105.0 23.1 11.3 14.0 1,617.5 7.0 84.4 9.1 26.2 43.6 706.9 119.1 140.8 30.3 16.7 18.2 1,707.9 7.7 86.2 10.0 27.3 45.5 751.6 126.7 149.4 31.8 18.0 19.1 1,628.0 7.0 83.5 9.4 26.2 43.6 717.1 119.4 141.2 30.2 17.0 18.2 34.5 32.5 39.2 56.6 33.3 37.8 35.5 35.0 34.0 31.3 47.9 29.9 42.0 46.9 42.3 72.8 39.0 43.9 44.1 43.6 42.2 37.5 59.5 36.7 35.4 34.2 37.8 62.2 33.1 38.0 37.5 35.3 34.4 30.7 50.2 30.3 See footnotes at end of table. 77 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Surgical technicians ................................................................................ X-ray technicians..................................................................................... All other health technologists and technicians...................................... 31.5 92.3 192.5 43.9 126.4 245.0 45.8 132.6 256.1 43.9 126.2 245.2 39.3 36.8 27.3 45.4 43.6 33.1 39.2 36.6 27.4 Technicians, except health, science, and engineering........................... Airplane p ilo ts.......................................................................................... Air traffic controllers................................................................................ Embalmers ............................................................................................... Flight engineers....................................................................................... Radio operators....................................................................................... Technical assistants, library.................................................................... Tool programmers, numerical control..................................................... All other technicians, except health, science, and engineering............................................................................................ 289.4 81.7 29.0 11.4 5.9 5.9 35.5 11.9 330.2 94.2 33.6 11.6 6.4 6.8 35.5 13.8 349.0 100.5 34.3 14.0 6.8 7.1 35.7 15.3 333.8 95.6 33.7 12.8 6.4 6.7 35.4 14.1 14.1 15.3 16.1 2.0 8.0 15.2 .1 15.8 20.6 23.0 18.5 22.9 14.7 20.5 .6 28.4 15.3 17.0 16.4 13.1 8.8 14.8 -.2 17.9 108.2 128.4 135.4 129.0 18.6 25.1 19.2 Computer specialists................................................................................ Computer programmers........................................................................... Computer systems analysts.................................................................... 432.8 228.2 204.6 683.1 339.9 343.2 733.9 366.0 367.9 697.2 346.6 350.6 57.8 48.9 67.7 69.6 60.4 79.8 61.1 51.8 71.4 Social scientists............................... ........................................................ Economists............................................................................................... Financial analysts.................................................................................... Psychologists 1......................................................................................... Sociologists.............................................................................................. Urban and regional planners .................................................................. All other social scientists ........................................................................ 189.6 28.8 14.3 82.5 6.4 23.1 34.6 242.4 40.9 18.5 106.5 7.7 29.4 39.4 255.4 43.3 20.2 111.1 8.1 30.3 42.4 248.0 41.5 19.5 108.5 7.9 29.7 40.8 27.9 42.0 29.7 29.2 20.3 27.5 13.8 34.7 50.1 41.7 34.8 27.4 31.3 22.6 30.8 44.0 37.0 31.6 24.5 28.7 17.9 Teachers................................................................................................... Adult education teachers ........................................................................ College and university teachers.............................................................. Dance instructors .................................................................................... Elementary school teachers................................................................... Extension service specialists.................................................................. Graduate assistants................................................................................. Preschool and kindergarten teachers..................................................... Secondary school teachers .................................................................... Vocational education teachers............................................................... All other teachers.................................................................................... 3,915.5 107.4 457.4 22.5 1,285.6 6.0 132.1 474.6 1,237.2 27.0 165.6 4,048.1 123.1 405.1 25.6 1,536.6 5.8 108.7 570.3 1,061.6 33.2 178.2 4,081.6 125.9 406.6 27.2 1,542.3 5.8 109.1 575.5 1,065.6 34.2 189.3 4,042.6 123.4 404.1 24.8 1,532.9 5.8 108.4 568.5 1,059.1 33.3 182.4 3.4 14.6 -11.4 13.5 19.5 -3.1 -17.7 20.2 -14.2 22.8 7.6 4.2 17.2 -11.1 20.5 20.0 -2.8 -17.4 21.3 -13.9 26.5 14.3 3.2 14.8 -11.6 9.9 19.2 -3.4 -17.9 19.8 -14.4 23.2 10.1 Selected writers, artists, and entertainers............................................... Actors....................................................................................................... Athletes.................................................................................................... Commercial artists................................................................................... Dancers ................................................................................................... Designers................................................................................................. Musicians, instrumental ........................................................................... Painters, artistic....................................................................................... Photographers ......................................................................................... Public relations specialists...................................................................... Radio and television announcers............................................................ Announcers ........................................................................................... Broadcast news analysts...................................................................... Reporters and correspondents............................................................... Singers..................................................................................................... Sports instructors.................................................................................... Writers and editors.................................................................................. Writers, artists, and entertainers, n.e.c.................................................... 969.3 20.8 20.5 120.1 6.5 165.4 138.2 22.4 90.7 86.6 51.0 42.8 8.2 57.3 18.9 36.4 118.0 8.1 1,115.4 24.6 22.4 121.9 7.8 189.2 159.7 19.5 104.2 101.8 65.5 54.7 10.8 70.0 21.0 41.1 144.5 9.4 1,196.4 26.2 24.2 133.6 7.8 206.1 165.4 21.5 112.9 108.9 68.1 56.9 11.2 75.4 22.5 43.4 156.9 9.9 1,132.8 24.7 23.6 126.2 7.9 185.1 165.4 20.3 103.7 104.3 65.7 54.8 10.8 72.0 21.8 41.3 148.6 9.4 15.1 18.5 8.8 1.5 19.9 14.4 15.5 -12.6 14.9 17.5 28.4 27.8 31.1 22.2 11.0 13.2 22.5 16.8 23.4 25.9 17.7 11.2 20.3 24.6 19.7 -3.9 24.5 25.7 33.5 32.9 36.3 31.7 18.9 19.3 33.0 22.5 16.9 18.7 14.7 5.1 21.7 11.9 19.6 -9.3 14.4 20.4 28.7 28.1 31.3 25.7 15.4 13.5 25.9 16.6 Other professional and technical workers............................................... Accountants and auditors 1..................................................................... Architects.................................................................................................. Assessors................................................................................................. Audiovisual specialists, education........................................................... Brokers, floor representatives, and security traders.............................. Buyers, retail and wholesale trade !........................................................ Claim examiners, property/casualty insurance ...................................... Claims takers, unemployment benefits .................................................. Clergy....................................................................................................... 4,445.7 833.2 79.5 32.4 10.6 7.8 251.9 22.0 15.2 296.0 5,248.7 1,053.9 105.5 37.8 10.3 9.4 296.3 32.5 17.8 288.5 5,595.9 1,131.4 112.1 38.5 10.3 10.8 319.6 33.5 18.2 309.9 5,366.9 1,078.7 108.4 37.9 10.2 10.4 298.1 32.8 17.9 298.3 18.1 26.5 32.7 16.8 -3.4 21.3 17.6 47.3 17.4 -2.5 25.9 35.8 41.0 18.8 -3.0 38.7 26.9 52.1 19.8 4.7 20.7 29.5 36.3 17.0 -3.6 33.5 18.3 48.6 17.8 .8 Cost estimators........................................................................................ Credit analysts, chief ............................................................................... 85.7 7.7 105.8 9.7 113.2 10.4 108.5 10.1 23.5 25.8 32.1 35.0 26.6 31.0 See footnotes at end of table. 78 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Credit analysts......................................................................................... Directors, religious education and activities ........................................... Employment interviewers ........................................................................ Foresters .................................................................................................. Insurance investigators............................................................................ Judges ...................................................................................................... Law clerks................................................................................................ Lawyers 1 .................................................................................................. 24.1 35.8 58.2 29.5 9.7 19.9 32.7 416.2 29.5 36.6 85.6 32.2 13.2 22.9 42.6 523.5 32.1 39.4 95.3 33.6 14.0 23.3 48.0 579.9 31.1 37.9 88.3 33.0 13.5 22.9 44.3 543.3 22.5 2.2 47.0 9.2 36.3 15.0 30.2 25.8 33.5 9.9 63.7 13.9 43.6 17.0 46.8 39.4 29.4 5.8 51.8 12.0 38.8 15.2 35.4 30.5 Librarians.................................................................................................. Magistrates............................................................................................... Media buyers ........................................................................................... Paralegal personnel ................................................................................. Personnel and labor relations specialists .............................................. Purchasing agents and buyers................................................................ Recreation workers, group...................................................................... Safety inspectors..................................................................................... Social workers ......................................................................................... Caseworkers.......................................................................................... Community organization workers ......................................................... 134.3 10.1 15.1 31.5 178.2 172.3 130.2 5.9 344.8 289.5 55.3 138.5 11.8 17.5 65.8 205.1 199.5 152.3 7.4 413.8 342.4 71.4 141.1 12.0 19.4 75.3 217.2 213.8 159.7 7.6 427.6 353.9 73.7 139.0 11.8 18.3 68.8 208.2 202.4 156.6 7.4 422.7 349.8 72.9 3.1 16.7 16.3 108.9 15.1 15.8 16.9 24.8 20.0 18.3 29.2 5.1 18.7 28.5 138.8 21.9 24.1 22.6 29.2 24.0 22.3 33.3 3.5 16.9 21.6 118.4 16.8 17.5 20.2 25.8 22.6 20.8 31.9 Special agents, insurance....................................................................... Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents .................................... Tax preparers........................................................................................... Title examiners and abstractors.............................................................. Underwriters............................................................................................. Vocational and educational counselors ................................................. Welfare investigators ............................................................................... All other professional workers................................................................. 24.0 54.1 31.1 10.2 76.2 207.6 11.7 737.7 29.1 60.3 46.2 17.4 89.5 210.5 13.6 814.0 30.2 61.4 52.8 18.0 93.3 213.9 13.9 862.5 29.5 60.4 50.0 17.4 89.9 211.8 13.7 831.0 21.7 11.5 48.6 70.6 17.5 1.4 16.0 10.4 25.9 13.6 69.8 76.1 22.6 3.0 18.1 16.9 23.1 11.7 60.8 69.7 18.1 2.0 16.4 12.7 Managers, officials, and proprietors .......................................................... Auto parts department managers........................................................... Auto service department managers........................................................ Construction inspectors, public administration....................................... Inspectors, except construction, public administration........................... Postmasters and mail superintendents.................................................. Railroad conductors................................................................................. Restaurant, cafe, and bar managers...................................................... Sales managers, retail trade................................................................... Store managers....................................................................................... Wholesalers.............................................................................................. All other managers................................................................................... 9,355.4 46.7 58.1 48.3 111.7 28.3 33.2 556.9 273.1 961.9 248.5 6,988.6 10,562.5 54.2 68.9 60.8 125.1 28.9 31.2 642.0 323.4 1,101.3 279.4 7,847.3 11,344.1 58.9 74.9 61.9 127.5 30.0 34.3 680.0 351.2 1,182.8 306.8 8,435.8 10,760.5 59.0 75.2 60.9 125.4 29.1 31.5 650.1 322.8 1,106.6 283.6 8,016.1 12.9 16.1 18.6 26.0 12.0 2.1 -6.3 15.3 18.4 14.5 12.4 12.3 21.3 26.1 28.9 28.2 14.1 5.9 3.3 22.1 28.6 23.0 23.5 20.7 15.0 26.4 29.4 26.2 12.2 2.9 -5.2 16.7 18.2 15.0 14.1 14.7 Sales workers............................................................................................. Brokers and market operators, commodities ......................................... Contribution solicitors .............................................................................. Crating and moving estimators................................................................ Real estate appraisers............................................................................. Real estate brokers ................................................................................. Sales agents and representatives, real estate 1 .................................... Sales agents and representatives, insurance ........................................ Sales agents and representatives, securities......................................... Sales clerks.............................................................................................. Travel agents and accommodations appraisers.................................... Vendors .................................................................................................... All other sales workers............................................................................ 6,821.5 5.8 6.7 7.5 35.9 38.7 291.8 327.3 63.4 2,879.9 52.1 6.9 3,105.5 8,112.2 8.3 9.0 10.1 47.1 47.9 393.7 398.6 80.0 3,359.2 74.7 9.1 3,674.5 8,763.2 9.5 9.5 10.5 50.5 52.5 430.3 420.4 91.6 3,598.5 79.4 9.7 4,000.9 8,204.5 9.1 9.4 9.8 48.2 48.6 400.5 405.4 88.2 3,359.3 74.9 9.2 3,741.9 18.9 42.4 34.4 33.7 31.1 23.9 34.9 21.8 26.2 16.6 43.4 31.3 18.3 28.5 63.7 41.1 39.7 40.5 35.8 47.5 28.4 44.4 25.0 52.4 40.2 28.8 20.3 56.8 40.0 29.9 34.2 25.8 37.2 23.9 39.1 16.6 43.8 33.1 20.5 Clerical workers.......................................................................................... Adjustment clerks.................................................................................... Admissions evaluators............................................................................. Bank te lle rs.............................................................................................. New accounts tellers ............................................................................ Tellers .................................................................................................... Bookkeepers and accounting clerks....................................................... Accounting c le rks.................................................................................. Bookkeepers, hand ............................................................................... Brokerage clerks ..................................................................................... Car rental clerks...................................................................................... Cashiers.................................................................................................... Checking cle rks....................................................................................... Circulation clerks..................................................................................... 18,863.8 37.3 5.6 480.4 52.7 427.7 1,714.5 740.0 974.6 12.9 16.8 1,592.5 15.9 10.7 22,417.6 45.4 5.4 600.8 64.9 535.9 1,974.8 833.0 1,141.8 16.7 21.0 2,044.6 20.3 12.7 23,917.0 47.6 5.4 619.3 67.1 552.3 2,123.4 892.7 1,230.7 19.3 21.6 2,163.4 20.9 13.6 22,720.5 45.7 5.4 605.6 65.8 539.9 2,006.0 843.2 1,162.8 18.6 20.7 2,068.7 20.4 13.0 18.8 21.7 -3.1 25.1 23.1 25.3 15.2 12.6 17.2 29.6 25.0 28.4 27.4 18.4 26.8 27.5 -2.8 28.9 27.3 29.1 23.8 20.6 26.3 49.7 28.3 35.8 31.5 27.5 20.4 22.4 -3.4 26.1 24.9 26.2 17.0 14.0 19.3 44.6 23.0 29.9 28.1 21.9 See footnotes at end of table. 79 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Claims adjusters...................................................................................... Claims clerks............................................................................................ Claims examiners, insurance.................................................................. Clerical supervisors................................................................................. Collectors, bill and account .................................................................... Court clerks.............................................................................................. 69.8 67.6 40.3 429.6 88.7 26.0 94.7 92.3 57.7 518.7 107.9 30.4 97.9 95.8 58.9 552.7 119.0 30.9 95.1 92.8 57.9 526.0 112.8 30.4 35.7 36.5 43.0 20.8 21.6 16.9 40.4 41.6 46.1 28.7 34.1 19.0 36.3 37.2 43.8 22.4 27.1 17.2 Credit authorizers .................................................................................... Credit clerks, banking and insurance ..................................................... Credit reporters........................................................................................ Customer service representatives, printing and publishing .............................................................................................. Desk clerks, bowling flo o r....................................................................... Desk clerks, except bowling flo o r........................................................... Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance............................................... Dispatchers, vehicle, service, or w o rk.................................................... Eligibility workers, welfare....................................................................... File clerks................................................................................................. 20.8 50.4 17.0 25.6 61.9 21.4 27.0 68.0 23.7 26.3 66.0 22.3 23.1 22.7 25.5 29.9 34.8 39.2 26.5 31.0 30.8 7.0 15.4 82.3 51.0 91.7 32.6 270.9 7.9 15.4 94.1 59.6 108.4 38.4 325.0 8.6 16.4 106.4 60.7 115.5 39.2 346.2 8.1 16.9 95.3 59.7 107.4 38.6 329.1 13.4 .4 14.3 17.0 18.2 17.8 19.9 23.2 6.4 29.2 19.0 26.0 20.0 27.8 16.8 10.2 15.8 17.2 17.2 18.3 21.5 General clerks, office............................................................................... In-file operators........................................................................................ Insurance checkers.................................................................................. Insurance clerks, except medical............................................................ Insurance clerks, medical........................................................................ Library assistants..................................................................................... Loan closers ............................................................................................ Mail carriers, Postal Service ................................................................... Mail cle rks................................................................................................ Marking clerks, trade ............................................................................... Messengers.............................................................................................. Meter readers, utilities ............................................................................. Mortgage closing clerks .......................................................................... 2,394.7 5.4 12.9 9.7 69.0 119.0 24.1 241.5 81.2 43.5 51.6 30.0 21.8 2,772.2 6.7 15.4 11.0 92.8 123.3 31.1 260.1 94.5 53.8 59.9 32.4 24.7 2,972.4 7.9 15.8 11.5 97.4 124.7 32.7 269.7 99.4 56.8 64.1 37.7 26.7 2,811.4 7.1 15.4 11.3 92.2 123.3 31.9 262.0 96.2 54.8 61.6 32.5 26.4 15.8 23.8 18.9 13.9 34.5 3.7 29.2 7.7 16.4 23.8 16.1 7.8 13.3 24.1 46.1 22.1 19.0 41.2 4.8 35.8 11.7 22.4 30.6 24.4 25.6 22.4 17.4 32.2 19.4 17.5 33.7 3.7 32.3 8.5 18.5 26.1 19.5 8.2 21.3 Office machine operators........................................................................ Bookkeeping and billing operators....................................................... Bookkeeping, billing machine operators............................................. Proof machine operators..................................................................... Transit clerks ....................................................................................... Computer, peripheral equipment operators ......................................... Computer operators! ............................................................................ Peripheral EDP equipment operators................................................. Duplicating machine operators ............................................................. Keypunch operators.............................................................................. Tabulating machine operators .............................................................. All other office machine operators....................................................... Order clerks ............................................................................................. Payroll and timekeeping clerks............................................................... Personnel clerks...................................................................................... Policy change clerks................................................................................ Postal clerks ............................................................................................ 914.5 233.8 176.7 47.5 9.6 233.2 184.6 48.7 33.9 324.7 5.1 83.7 250.2 178.7 94.8 26.6 316.3 1,107.6 283.5 211.8 59.8 11.8 386.8 316.7 70.1 38.4 293.0 6.0 100.0 289.0 210.9 111.4 31.6 309.5 1,183.5 301.1 228.2 60.9 12.0 412.0 338.2 73.8 41.1 315.8 6.4 107.2 316.0 226.2 117.5 33.1 320.9 1,121.4 282.5 211.7 59.2 11.7 393.9 323.0 70.9 39.1 297.8 6.1 101.9 288.1 214.2 112.7 31.7 311.8 21.1 21.2 19.9 25.9 23.5 65.8 71.6 44.0 13.4 -9.8 17.3 19.4 15.5 18.0 17.5 19.0 -2.2 29.4 28.8 29.1 28.2 25.7 76.6 83.2 51.6 21.3 -2.8 25.1 28.1 26.3 26.6 23.9 24.5 1.5 22.6 20.9 19.8 24.5 22.3 68.9 75.0 45.7 15.3 -8.3 19.1 21.7 15.1 19.9 18.8 19.4 -1.4 Procurement clerks................................................................................. Production clerks..................................................................................... Proofreaders ............................................................................................ Rate clerks, freight.................................................................................. Raters ...................................................................................................... Real estate cle rks................................................................................... Receptionists ........................................................................................... Reservation agents................................................................................. Safe deposit clerks ................................................................................. Secretaries, stenographers, and typists................................................. Secretaries ............................................................................................ Stenographers....................................................................................... Typists.................................................................................................... 40.3 201.1 19.8 11.2 56.1 15.6 401.5 56.6 10.6 3,817.4 2,469.0 281.2 1,067.2 46.5 235.4 22.2 13.9 63.2 22.1 499.0 55.2 13.9 4,680.9 3,168.7 257.9 1,254.3 50.0 257.9 24.2 14.4 65.9 23.8 533.0 58.8 14.3 4,996.2 3,392.0 274.6 1,329.6 47.0 239.6 23.1 13.4 63.5 22.0 504.8 55.6 13.9 4,760.2 3,227.5 261.7 1,271.0 15.5 17.1 12.5 24.1 12.6 41.6 24.3 -2.4 31.0 22.6 28.3 -8.3 17.5 24.0 28.3 22.3 29.2 17.4 52.1 32.7 3.9 34.1 30.9 37.4 -2.3 24.6 16.6 19.2 16.9 19.9 13.2 40.5 25.7 -1.6 30.9 24.7 30.7 -6.9 19.1 Service clerks .......................................................................................... Shipping and receiving clerks................................................................. Shipping packers..................................................................................... Statement clerks ...................................................................................... Statistical clerks....................................................................................... Stock clerks, stockroom and warehouse................................................ 22.9 390.0 346.1 32.6 85.2 821.6 28.8 448.7 397.8 43.8 94.6 963.7 30.3 488.1 431.2 44.9 100.4 1,042.7 29.8 452.0 400.9 43.8 95.7 977.3 25.8 15.0 15.0 34.2 11.0 17.3 32.4 25.1 24.6 37.8 17.9 26.9 30.0 15.9 15.8 34.3 12.3 18.9 See footnotes at end of table. 80 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Survey workers........................................................................................ Switchboard operators/receptionists...................................................... Teachers’ aides, except monitors........................................................... Telephone advertisement takers, newspapers....................................... 45.6 233.4 415.4 9.6 47.7 275.7 493.3 11.3 51.7 297.9 496.5 12.3 49.2 281.7 491.7 11.7 4.7 18.1 18.8 17.8 13.5 27.6 19.5 27.7 7.9 20.7 18.4 21.8 Telegraph operators................................................................................. Telephone operators................................................................................ Switchboard operators.......................................................................... Central office operators........................................................................ Directory assistance operators............................................................. All other telephone operators............................................................... Ticket agents ........................................................................................... Title searchers......................................................................................... Town clerks.............................................................................................. Traffic agents........................................................................................... Traffic clerks ............................................................................................ Transportation agents.............................................................................. Travel counselors, auto club .................................................................. Weighers................................................................................................... Worksheet clerks..................................................................................... Yard clerks............................................................................................... All other clerical workers......................................................................... 15.3 337.3 183.9 110.0 38.0 5.4 53.1 7.0 28.4 18.2 6.7 21.3 8.4 35.3 11.6 5.6 1,150.0 13.5 350.9 192.9 112.6 39.7 5.7 50.8 12.4 33.3 21.8 8.8 22.0 9.9 41.5 12.5 4.5 1,339.1 15.0 386.3 207.2 127.7 45.0 6.4 53.9 12.8 33.9 22.9 9.1 23.3 10.8 44.7 12.6 5.0 1,437.1 13.8 356.3 196.3 114.0 40.2 5.8 51.2 12.3 33.3 21.3 8.8 22.1 10.1 41.9 12.5 4.6 1,360.2 -11.8 4.0 4.9 2.4 4.5 5.0 -4.2 78.5 17.3 19.8 31.5 3.0 16.9 17.5 7.7 -18.6 16.4 -2.4 14.5 12.6 16.1 18.4 19.0 1.6 83.4 19.3 25.8 36.9 9.4 28.0 26.5 9.2 -10.2 25.0 -10.0 5.6 6.7 3.7 5.8 6.4 -3.4 76.6 17.5 17.1 31.8 3.8 19.7 18.8 8.2 -17.6 18.3 Craft and related workers .......................................................................... 12,369.2 14,566.9 15,756.1 14,866.3 17.8 27.4 20.2 Construction craft workers ....................................................................... Air-hammer operators.............................................................................. Brickmasons............................................................................................. Carpenters................................................................................................ Carpet cutters and layers........................................................................ Ceiling tile installers and floor layers...................................................... Concrete and terrazzo finishers .............................................................. Drywall installers and lathers.................................................................. Drywall applicators ................................................................................ Lathers................................................................................................... Tapers.................................................................................................... 3,317.1 11.9 145.9 969.5 53.2 26.6 112.6 95.9 52.3 11.9 31.7 3,981.2 14.6 204.5 1,142.7 65.5 34.8 154.1 124.3 70.5 11.4 42.5 4,276.6 16.4 220.5 1,231.0 72.6 38.4 166.0 134.2 76.1 12.2 45.8 4,076.0 15.0 211.2 1,186.4 67.6 35.9 158.9 127.5 72.5 11.7 43.4 20.0 22.5 40.2 17.9 23.2 31.0 36.9 29.6 34.7 -4.4 33.9 28.9 37.8 51.2 27.0 36.6 44.2 47.4 39.9 45.6 2.9 44.4 22.9 25.7 44.8 22.4 27.1 35.1 41.1 33.0 38.6 -1.7 36.7 Electricians............................................................................................... Fitters, pipelaying .................................................................................... Glaziers.................................................................................................... Highway maintenance workers............................................................... Insulation workers ................................................................................... Painters, construction and maintenance................................................ Paperhangers........................................................................................... Plasterers ................................................................................................. Plumbers and pipefitters.......................................................................... Refractory materials repairers ................................................................ Roofers.................................................................................................... Stonemasons........................................................................................... Structural steel workers........................................................................... Tile setters ............................................................................................... 560.3 8.8 38.4 186.0 45.4 382.4 21.1 23.6 406.7 7.7 112.6 9.1 74.8 20.2 669.4 10.6 47.2 211.2 59.3 435.8 24.3 25.6 488.1 9.3 129.6 10.0 87.6 27.6 717.0 11.6 50.4 214.9 63.4 476.6 26.9 27.7 521.7 9.5 139.4 10.7 92.6 29.9 684.1 10.8 48.8 211.6 60.9 429.3 24.4 26.4 500.6 9.2 133.6 10.4 89.8 28.4 19.5 19.3 23.0 13.5 30.5 14.0 15.6 8.5 20.0 19.7 15.2 10.0 17.2 36.2 28.0 30.7 31.3 15.5 39.6 24.6 27.8 17.4 28.3 22.7 23.8 17.5 23.8 48.0 22.1 22.0 27.1 13.7 34.1 12.3 15.8 11.9 23.1 19.4 18.7 14.8 20.1 40.4 Mechanics, repairers, and installers......................................................... Air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanics .......................... Aircraft mechanics................................................................................... Auto body repairers................................................................................. Auto seat cover and top installers.......................................................... Automotive mechanics ............................................................................ Auto repair service estimators................................................................ Bicycle repairers...................................................................................... Coin machine servicers and repairers.................................................... Data processing machine mechanics..................................................... Diesel mechanics.................................................................................... Electrical instrument and tool repairers ................................................. Electric motor repairers........................................................................... Electric powerline installers and repairers............................................. Cable splicers........................................................................................ Line installers and repairers................................................................. Troubleshooters, powerline.................................................................. Engineering equipment mechanics......................................................... Farm equipment mechanics.................................................................... 3,936.7 179.5 108.5 153.4 9.4 845.7 11.4 12.4 26.7 83.0 173.5 9.1 20.2 171.6 43.7 120.2 7.7 92.0 24.8 4,752.4 214.7 125.0 188.8 8.2 1,052.1 14.2 15.7 29.2 160.4 214.4 10.7 26.9 187.0 46.1 132.7 8.2 104.0 29.9 5,142.8 231.4 132.7 200.7 8.4 1,123.8 15.4 17.3 31.0 176.3 227.6 11.7 34.5 212.0 52.1 150.3 9.6 112.3 32.4 4,850.0 217.4 126.1 192.6 7.7 1,081.9 15.7 15.1 24.6 166.7 214.5 11.1 32.1 189.8 46.6 134.8 8.3 107.6 31.4 20.7 19.7 15.2 23.1 -12.7 24.4 24.7 27.1 9.2 93.2 23.5 16.8 33.2 9.0 5.4 10.4 6.6 13.1 20.9 30.6 28.9 22.3 30.8 -10.1 32.9 35.1 39.7 16.1 112.4 31.1 27.7 70.6 23.6 19.3 25.1 24.5 22.1 31.0 23.2 21.2 16.2 25.5 -18.1 27.9 37.9 22.5 -8.0 100.8 23.6 21.6 58.6 10.6 6.7 12.2 7.9 17.0 26.7 See footnotes at end of table. 81 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Gas and electric appliance repairers...................................................... 60.2 67.7 75.5 67.7 12.4 25.3 12.4 Household appliance installers............................................................... Hydroelectric machine mechanics .......................................................... Instrument repairers................................................................................ Knitting machine fixers ............................................................................ Laundry machine mechanics.................................................................. Loom fixers .............................................................................................. Maintenance mechanics.......................................................................... Maintenance repairers, general utility..................................................... Marine mechanics and repairers............................................................. 17.0 13.0 37.6 10.6 5.4 11.4 18.0 348.1 651.4 9.9 22.0 13.9 41.5 11.1 4.5 15.6 16.2 411.0 785.0 10.6 23.9 15.8 44.9 12.2 5.4 18.8 16.4 439.5 845.4 11.4 22.8 14.0 41.9 10.8 4.9 17.7 16.1 418.9 794.3 10.8 29.0 7.6 10.5 5.4 -17.4 37.2 -9.9 18.1 20.5 7.1 40.4 22.1 19.6 14.9 -.1 65.7 -8.4 26.3 29.8 15.2 33.5 8.2 11.6 2.0 -8.8 55.6 -10.4 20.3 22.0 9.4 Millwrights................................................................................................. Mine machinery mechanics .................................................................... Mobile home repairers............................................................................. Musical instrument repairers................................................................... Office machine and cash register servicers.......................................... Pinsetter mechanics, automatic .............................................................. Radio and television repairers................................................................ Railroad car repairers .............................................................................. Railroad signal and switch maintainers.................................................. Section repairers and setters ................................................................. Sewing machine mechanics ................................................................... 91.0 18.1 5.6 14.4 55.4 6.5 83.1 30.0 5.7 13.6 12.2 107.9 26.4 6.7 17.2 88.5 6.6 109.1 24.4 4.7 14.0 14.2 114.3 29.9 7.5 18.9 96.1 6.9 118.6 26.9 5.1 14.4 15.6 109.1 28.1 7.1 18.5 91.4 7.2 114.3 24.7 4.7 13.7 14.5 18.5 46.0 20.2 19.4 59.8 .4 31.3 -18.5 -18.6 3.0 16.4 25.6 65.4 34.0 31.5 73.5 6.4 42.8 -10.1 -10.2 6.1 28.3 19.9 55.3 26.6 28.8 65.0 10.2 37.6 -17.5 -17.6 1.3 18.6 Shoe repairers ......................................................................................... Telephone installers and repairers ......................................................... Cable repairers...................................................................................... Cable installers ..................................................................................... Central office repairers ......................................................................... Frame wirers ......................................................................................... Installers, repairers, and section maintainers...................................... Station installers ................................................................................... Trouble locators, test desk .................................................................. All other telephone installers and repairers......................................... 15.5 247.6 10.1 7.1 50.8 13.3 75.0 59.4 19.4 12.5 17.2 265.9 10.8 8.2 47.8 12.5 86.5 68.4 18.3 13.6 17.8 301.5 12.2 9.5 54.2 14.1 98.0 77.5 20.7 15.3 16.8 269.6 10.9 8.4 48.4 12.6 87.7 69.2 18.5 13.8 10.8 7.4 6.2 15.6 -6.0 -6.0 15.4 15.1 -5.7 8.4 15.1 21.8 20.7 33.6 6.6 6.5 30.7 30.5 6.9 22.4 8.4 8.9 7.7 19.1 -4.8 -4.8 16.9 16.5 -4.5 10.4 Water meter installers.............................................................................. All other mechanics, repairers, and installers........................................ 6.1 224.0 7.2 257.4 7.3 279.8 7.2 264.1 17.2 14.9 19.3 24.9 17.5 17.9 Metalworking craft workers, except mechanics....................................... Blacksmiths.............................................................................................. Boilermakers ............................................................................................ Coremakers, hand, bench, and flo o r...................................................... Forging press operators.......................................................................... Header operators .................................................................................... Heat treaters, annealers, and temperers............................................... Layout markers, metal ............................................................................. Machine tool setters, metalworking........................................................ Machinists 1 ................................................................................................ Molders, m etal......................................................................................... Molders, bench and floor ..................................................................... Molders, machine ................................................................................. All other molders, metal ....................................................................... Patternmakers, m etal.............................................................................. Punch press setters, metal ..................................................................... Rolling mill operators and helpers.......................................................... Shear and slitter setters.......................................................................... Sheet-metal workers and tinsmiths!........................................................ Tool-and-die makers............................................................................... All other metalworking craft workers...................................................... 936.1 5.9 43.9 9.3 8.9 5.4 25.2 21.3 55.5 281.9 39.7 13.0 19.2 7.5 7.9 19.2 10.8 5.5 217.8 166.0 11.9 1,069.7 5.4 48.3 10.3 10.8 6.9 29.5 24.3 65.9 326.7 44.3 14.5 21.6 8.2 9.4 23.3 12.4 6.6 252.1 179.1 14.4 1,179.6 6.0 52.7 10.9 12.0 7.4 32.0 27.2 73.7 362.3 47.0 15.5 23.1 8.3 10.3 25.9 12.7 7.2 270.7 206.4 15.2 1,094.2 5.6 50.1 10.3 11.1 7.0 29.6 24.8 67.3 335.4 44.3 14.6 21.7 7.9 9.5 23.9 12.4 6.7 258.1 183.6 14.5 14.3 -8.6 10.1 10.8 21.6 27.6 17.0 13.9 18.6 15.9 11.6 11.9 12.5 8.9 19.0 21.4 15.4 20.1 15.7 7.9 21.4 26.0 .8 20.1 17.9 34.6 37.9 26.8 28.0 32.7 28.5 18.5 19.6 20.6 11.4 29.6 34.6 17.5 32.0 24.3 24.4 28.0 16.9 -6.2 14.2 11.4 24.9 30.7 17.6 16.7 21.1 19.0 11.6 12.5 13.5 5.5 20.1 24.1 14.5 22.1 18.5 10.6 22.6 Printing trades craft workers.................................................................... Bookbinders, hand and machine ............................................................ Bindery machine setters.......................................................................... Compositors and typesetters.................................................................. Etchers and engravers ............................................................................ Photoengravers and lithographers.......................................................... Camera operators, printing................................................................... Photoengravers..................................................................................... Strippers, printing.................................................................................. 408.0 23.7 6.5 127.8 14.7 55.1 22.2 10.3 22.6 429.8 26.4 7.1 115.5 16.9 68.6 29.3 9.9 29.5 463.0 28.7 7.7 124.8 18.0 74.2 31.7 10.6 31.9 444.9 27.4 7.4 119.0 17.1 71.5 30.5 10.3 30.8 5.3 11.4 10.4 -9.6 14.8 24.4 32.1 -4.7 30.1 13.5 21.2 20.1 -2.3 22.2 34.6 43.0 3.0 40.9 9.0 15.9 14.8 -6.9 16.1 29.7 37.6 -.8 35.8 See footnotes at end of table. 82 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Press and plate printers.......................................................................... Letter press operators .......................................................................... Offset lithographic press operators...................................................... Platemakers........................................................................................... Press operators and plate printers....................................................... All other press and plate printers......................................................... 178.3 38.0 80.8 13.8 36.1 9.5 194.2 37.0 92.3 15.0 39.9 10.0 208.3 40.0 99.4 16.2 41.9 10.8 201.3 38.6 96.1 15.6 40.5 10.5 9.0 -2.8 14.3 8.4 10.5 6.1 16.9 5.1 23.0 17.3 15.9 14.7 12.9 1.4 19.0 12.9 12.2 10.8 Other craft and related workers ............................................................... Auxiliary equipment operators................................................................ Bakers...................................................................................................... Blue-collar worker supervisors ............................................................... Cabinetmakers......................................................................................... Control room operators, steam .............................................................. Crane, derrick, and hoist operators........................................................ Dental laboratory technicians................................................................. Food shapers, hand................................................................................. Furniture finishers.................................................................................... 3,771.4 8.3 63.2 1,297.0 70.7 7.6 126.6 53.4 5.1 22.1 4,333.8 8.0 72.2 1,503.1 89.3 7.2 144.3 68.9 4.5 26.0 4,694.0 9.2 76.5 1,624.8 95.1 8.4 154.3 79.4 4.9 28.6 4,401.3 8.0 73.9 1,528.3 88.1 7.3 146.9 70.6 4.7 26.4 14.9 -3.7 14.2 15.9 26.2 -5.4 14.1 29.0 -11.4 17.6 24.5 11.1 20.9 25.3 34.5 9.7 21.9 48.7 -5.2 29.4 16.7 -3.2 16.9 17.8 24.6 -4.3 16.0 32.3 -8.6 19.7 Furniture upholsterers.............................................................................. Glass installers........................................................................................ Heavy equipment operators.................................................................... Inspectors................................................................................................. Jewelers and silversmiths....................................................................... Lens grinders........................................................................................... Locomotive engineers.............................................................................. Locomotive engineer helpers ................................................................. Log inspectors, graders, and scalers ..................................................... Logging tractor operators........................................................................ 34.8 5.7 452.8 472.5 27.8 10.9 46.8 11.0 5.3 25.8 35.9 7.9 531.3 544.2 32.2 12.6 46.7 4.4 5.6 15.4 40.0 8.1 582.4 595.1 35.3 14.0 51.2 4.8 5.7 16.1 37.1 7.3 545.0 553.9 31.2 13.2 47.3 4.4 5.5 15.7 3.4 38.8 17.3 15.2 15.9 14.9 -.2 -60.1 5.5 -40.1 15.0 41.8 28.6 26.0 27.2 28.4 9.3 -56.0 7.0 -37.7 6.7 28.6 20.3 17.2 12.3 20.6 .9 -59.6 3.7 -39.0 Lumber graders ....................................................................................... Machine setters, paper goods........... ..................................................... Machine setters, plastic materials........................................................... Machine setters, woodworking................................................................ Merchandise displayers and window trimmers....................................... Millers....................................................................................................... Motion picture projectionists................................................................... Opticians................................................................................................... Oil pumpers.............................................................................................. Patternmakers, w ood............................................................................... 5.8 10.0 7.4 5.1 26.1 6.5 19.3 33.4 15.1 7.4 6.2 10.1 9.6 6.4 30.9 7.2 19.7 42.1 16.1 8.7 6.2 10.3 9.8 6.5 33.2 7.7 19.5 45.7 17.0 9.6 6.0 10.2 9.4 6.1 31.7 7.2 19.2 40.8 15.8 8.8 8.5 1.3 28.8 24.4 18.5 10.4 1.9 26.1 6.7 17.9 8.4 3.6 31.3 27.8 27.0 17.9 .7 36.9 12.3 29.5 3.4 2.2 26.7 19.3 21.3 11.0 -.8 22.5 4.6 19.1 Power station operators.......................................................................... Pumpers, head......................................................................................... Pumping station operators, waterworks................................................. Sewage plant operators.......................................................................... Shipfitters.................................................................................................. Ship engineers......................................................................................... Stationary engineers ............................................................................... Tailors ...................................................................................................... Testers...................................................................................................... Upholsterers............................................................................................. Upholstery cutters................................................................................... Upholstery workers, n.e.c......................................................................... 17.9 8.4 5.2 41.2 17.1 9.8 62.3 62.8 105.7 20.9 6.8 15.5 19.4 8.8 6.4 43.3 20.8 10.4 71.0 75.5 119.8 26.2 8.4 18.7 21.6 9.2 6.7 44.5 23.1 10.8 75.0 82.6 129.5 28.7 9.1 20.3 19.6 8.6 6.4 43.4 21.4 9.8 71.6 77.1 121.8 26.5 8.5 19.0 8.4 4.2 21.4 5.0 21.7 6.1 14.0 20.3 13.3 25.6 23.2 20.9 20.5 9.7 27.7 8.0 35.2 9.6 20.3 31.5 22.5 37.7 33.9 30.9 9.3 2.1 21.7 5.3 25.5 -.6 14.9 22.8 15.2 26.9 25.2 22.7 Veneer graders........................................................................................ Watchmakers ........................................................................................... Water treatment plant operators............................................................. All other craft and related workers......................................................... 5.1 12.3 29.7 463.1 6.3 12.4 34.9 529.9 5.9 13.9 36.3 572.6 5.3 12.2 35.0 539.3 22.4 .9 17.4 14.4 14.5 12.9 22.3 23.6 3.9 -.9 17.7 16.4 Operatives................................................................................................... 14,206.1 16,304.9 17,595.8 16,487.3 14.8 23.9 16.1 Assemblers................................................................................................ Aircraft structure and surfaces assemblers........................................... Electrical and electronic assemblers...................................................... Electro-mechanical equipment assemblers ........................................... Instrument makers and assemblers........................................................ Machine assemblers................................................................................ All other assemblers................................................................................ 1,668.4 25.4 233.1 58.4 24.8 103.0 1,219.3 1,989.5 26.7 272.7 69.3 29.2 124.2 1,462.2 2,183.1 29.4 299.1 78.1 33.1 144.0 1,593.6 2,021.1 27.2 276.5 70.5 28.9 126.9 1,486.1 19.2 5.2 17.0 18.8 17.7 20.6 19.9 30.9 15.8 28.3 33.9 33.2 39.8 30.7 21.1 7.0 18.6 20.9 16.4 23.2 21.9 Bindery operatives.................................................................................... Bindery workers, assembly..................................................................... 86.6 43.7 78.9 39.2 85.6 42.6 81.9 40.8 -8.9 -10.4 -1.1 -2.6 -5.3 -6.8 See footnotes at end of table. 83 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Employment, all industries Occupation 1990 (Low) 1980 1990 (High I) Percent change 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Bindery workers, stitching ....................................................................... All other bindery operatives.................................................................... 10.4 32.4 10.1 29.6 11.0 32.1 10.5 30.7 -3.5 -8.6 5.0 -1.1 0.2 -5.2 Laundry, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators.......................... Drycleaners, hand and machine.............................................................. Folders, laundry....................................................................................... Laundry operators, small establishment ................................................ Markers, classifiers, and assemblers...................................................... Pressers, hand......................................................................................... Pressers, machine................................................................................... Pressers, machine laundry...................................................................... Rug cleaners, hand and machine........................................................... Shapers and pressers.............................................................................. Spotters, drycleaning and washable materials....................................... Washers, machine, and starchers........................................................... All other laundry, drycleaning, and pressing machine operators............................................................................................... 324.6 14.6 15.8 40.0 18.1 29.3 53.3 67.5 6.7 6.0 7.2 59.1 355.6 13.9 13.0 47.6 15.9 32.3 55.8 73.8 5.5 6.5 5.9 78.6 403.9 16.8 15.8 53.2 18.4 36.0 64.7 83.6 6.7 7.3 7.2 86.6 375.2 15.3 14.4 49.4 17.2 33.4 59.2 78.0 6.1 6.7 6.6 81.8 9.6 -5.1 -17.7 19.2 -12.0 10.1 4.6 9.3 -17.3 9.1 -17.8 32.9 24.4 15.0 .1 33.2 1.8 22.5 21.4 23.9 .6 21.9 -.1 46.4 15.6 4.8 -8.8 23.6 -5.0 13.8 11.1 15.5 -8.4 11.6 -9.0 38.4 6.9 6.7 7.5 7.1 -2.8 10.0 3.1 Meat cutters and butchers ....................................................................... Boners, meat ........................................................................................... Boners, poultry......................................................................................... Butchers, all-around................................................................................. Carcass splitters...................................................................................... Fish cleaners, hand, and butchers, fis h ................................................. 66.3 17.0 10.3 22.9 6.8 9.3 67.3 17.7 10.8 23.8 7.0 8.0 71.7 18.8 11.5 25.3 7.5 8.7 66.5 17.3 10.6 23.1 6.8 8.7 1.4 4.0 4.1 3.9 4.0 -14.2 8.2 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.6 -7.2 .3 1.5 2.0 1.2 1.1 -6.9 Metalworking operatives........................................................................... Dip platers, nonelectrolytic...................................................................... Drill press and boring machine operators.............................................. Electroplators........................................................................................... Furnace chargers .................................................................................... Furnace operators, cupola tenders......................................................... Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal.................................. Heaters, metal ......................................................................................... Lathe machine operators, metal ............................................................. 1,652.8 13.1 124.5 37.5 5.5 16.9 131.4 6.5 156.6 1,970.4 15.6 147.6 44.1 6.7 19.8 153.9 7.7 186.3 2,211.2 16.7 167.1 47.7 6.8 20.8 173.4 8.3 210.2 2,025.4 15.8 151.3 45.1 6.6 19.8 157.2 7.9 191.3 19.2 19.1 18.6 17.7 20.3 17.2 17.1 18.9 19.0 33.8 27.3 34.2 27.3 22.4 23.4 32.0 27.1 34.2 22.5 20.8 21.6 20.4 19.7 17.1 19.7 20.8 22.1 Machine-tool operators, combination ..................................................... Machine-tool operators, numerical control ............................................. Machine-tool operators, tool-room.......................................................... Milling and planing machine operators................................................... Pourers, metal.......................................................................................... Power brake and bending machine operators, metal ............................ Punch press operators, metal ................................................................ Welders and flamecutters....................................................................... All other metalworking operatives........................................................... 170.7 52.7 38.7 72.4 15.3 40.1 182.9 572.8 15.2 199.9 61.2 45.6 83.1 19.4 48.4 217.4 696.2 17.5 226.2 69.7 52.1 95.4 20.3 53.9 240.4 784.3 17.9 205.9 62.8 46.7 85.6 19.4 49.4 222.3 720.8 17.3 17.1 16.1 17.9 14.8 26.7 21.0 18.8 21.6 15.2 32.5 32.3 34.6 31.9 32.7 34.5 31.4 36.9 17.6 20.6 19.2 20.6 18.3 26.9 23.3 21.5 25.8 13.9 Mine operatives, n.e.c................................................................................ Continuous mining machine operators................................................... Derrick operators, petroleum and g a s .................................................... Gagers ..................................................................................................... Loading machine operators .................................................................... Mill and grinder operators, minerals....................................................... Roof bolters ............................................................................................. Roustabouts............................................................................................. Service unit operators, oil well ............................................................... Shuttle car operators............................................................................... Well pullers............................................................................................... All other mine operatives,n.e.c................................................................ 210.3 8.5 16.7 7.3 7.1 12.0 12.7 79.8 12.0 13.3 6.6 34.5 238.5 13.1 15.9 7.6 9.3 13.3 17.7 79.7 12.3 18.2 6.8 44.6 258.3 15.1 16.7 7.9 10.4 14.0 20.3 83.7 12.9 20.9 7.1 49.4 242.7 14.2 15.7 7.4 9.7 13.1 19.1 78.5 12.1 19.6 6.7 46.7 13.4 54.5 -4.7 3.0 31.7 10.6 39.8 .0 2.3 37.2 3.4 29.3 22.8 77.4 .0 7.7 46.9 16.4 60.3 4.9 7.3 57.3 8.5 43.3 15.4 66.8 -6.0 .4 36.8 8.9 50.9 -1.5 .9 47.8 1.8 35.3 Packing and inspecting operatives........................................................... Baggers ................................................................................................... Bundlers................................................................................................... Cloth graders ........................................................................................... Graders, food and skins.......................................................................... Production packagers.............................................................................. Selectors, glassware................................................................................ All other packing and inspecting operatives........................................... 919.2 235.1 19.0 8.4 6.6 608.9 30.1 11.1 980.7 237.7 20.6 8.5 6.6 660.6 34.8 11.8 1,040.7 249.9 22.8 8.7 7.1 704.3 35.4 12.4 993.0 242.3 21.1 8.4 6.9 669.3 33.2 11.9 6.7 1.1 8.3 1.8 1.4 8.5 15.5 5.9 13.2 6.3 19.6 4.6 7.9 15.7 17.7 11.2 8.0 3.0 10.9 .7 4.9 9.9 10.1 7.2 Painters, manufactured articles ................................................................ Painters, automotive ................................................................................ Decorators, hand...................................................................................... Rubbers .................................................................................................... 161.8 40.7 5.4 7.3 204.9 56.2 7.1 9.5 221.6 58.6 7.6 10.1 205.9 55.1 7.3 9.5 26.6 38.1 31.8 29.9 36.9 43.9 40.2 39.0 27.3 35.4 35.5 30.3 See footnotes at end of table. 84 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Painters, production ................................................................................ 108.4 132.1 145.3 134.0 21.8 34.0 23.6 Sawyers..................................................................................................... Cut-off-saw operators, lum ber................................................................ Edgers, automatic and pony................................................................... Head sawyers .......................................................................................... Ripsaw operators .................................................................................... Sawyers, metal ........................................................................................ Trim-saw operators ................................................................................. All other sawyers..................................................................................... 83.1 17.5 6.0 6.5 12.4 19.1 6.5 15.1 98.2 21.6 6.5 7.1 15.3 22.9 7.3 17.5 102.2 22.1 6.6 7.2 15.8 25.4 7.3 17.8 97.5 20.8 6.3 6.9 14.9 23.3 7.0 18.2 18.2 23.6 8.2 8.9 23.7 19.9 12.1 15.7 22.9 26.0 9.6 10.1 28.2 32.6 12.3 18.0 17.3 19.1 5.4 6.1 20.7 21.9 8.0 20.1 Sewers and stitchers................................................................................. Menders................................................................................................... Sewing machine operator: Regular equipment, garment.... Special equipment, garment....... Regular equipment, nongarment.... Special equipment, nongarment .... All other sewers and stitchers 895.3 9.8 967.5 9.5 1,065.8 11.4 987.3 10.4 8.1 -3.2 19.0 16.8 10.3 6.3 602.0 87.0 137.7 38.9 15.1 633.9 96.3 161.8 45.5 15.3 702.0 106.4 175.0 49.0 16.1 647.4 98.5 164.0 46.1 15.6 5.3 10.8 17.5 16.9 1.1 16.6 22.4 27.1 25.9 6.2 7.5 13.2 19.1 18.3 3.4 Textile operatives...................................................................................... Battery loaders ........................................................................................ Beam warper tenders and beamers....................................................... Card tenders and comber tenders.......................................................... Creelers, yarn........................................................................................... Doffers ..................................................................................................... Drawing frame and gill box tenders........................................................ Folders, hand........................................................................................... Knitting machine operators..................................................................... 380.2 8.3 10.0 9.9 17.6 24.3 7.7 26.2 22.0 399.0 6.4 9.4 10.3 19.6 24.4 8.5 29.4 23.4 419.3 6.5 9.9 10.8 20.7 25.2 8.7 32.3 25.5 395.9 6.4 9.6 10.1 19.7 24.3 8.3 29.5 22.8 4.9 -22.5 -5.9 4.2 11.3 .3 10.1 12.1 6.2 10.3 -21.4 -.6 9.0 17.8 3.7 12.8 23.1 15.7 4.1 -22.7 -4.1 2.6 11.8 -.1 8.0 12.7 3.5 Seamless hosiery knitters ....................................................................... Slubber tenders ....................................................................................... Spinners, frame ....................................................................................... Spooler operators, automatic ................................................................. Texturizers and crimp setters................................................................. Turners..................................................................................................... Twister tenders........................................................................................ Weavers.................................................................................................... Winder operators, automatic................................................................... Yarn winders............................................................................................ All other textile operatives ...................................................................... 5.2 5.5 30.6 7.6 7.5 10.3 14.4 35.2 13.4 19.9 85.9 5.5 5.5 31.6 6.9 8.7 11.0 17.4 32.5 15.6 23.7 89.0 6.0 5.6 32.4 7.1 9.1 12.2 18.1 33.4 16.1 24.5 93.5 5.3 5.4 31.0 6.9 8.8 11.3 17.2 32.4 15.2 23.4 88.3 5.0 -1.1 3.2 -9.4 15.2 6.9 21.0 -7.5 16.2 19.1 3.6 15.1 1.3 6.0 -7.3 20.9 18.0 25.9 -5.1 20.0 23.3 8.9 1.4 -2.7 1.2 -10.3 17.0 9.2 19.9 -7.8 13.8 17.5 2.8 Transportation equipment operatives....................................................... Ambulance drivers and ambulance attendants...................................... Bus drivers ............................................................................................... Chauffeurs................................................................................................ Delivery and route workers..................................................................... Industrial truck operators......................................................................... Log handling equipment operators ......................................................... Parking attendants .................................................................................. Railroad brake operators......................................................................... Rental car delivery workers .................................................................... Sailors and deckhands............................................................................ Streetcar operators .................................................................................. Taxi drivers............................................................................................... Truck drivers ............................................................................................ Transportation equipment operatives, n.e.c............................................ 3,527.6 31.3 285.3 42.0 825.7 399.9 7.5 35.8 74.1 9.4 33.8 8.2 71.2 1,696.3 7.1 4,153.5 41.4 325.0 48.2 917.1 459.3 7.7 44.5 66.7 12.1 34.6 9.6 69.1 2,111.5 6.6 4,430.1 42.4 328.3 51.9 991.4 492.8 7.7 51.3 73.4 12.4 35.7 9.8 78.4 2,247.6 7.1 4,141.4 40.1 320.1 48.3 901.6 463.8 7.5 57.9 67.6 11.9 30.9 9.6 72.0 2,103.6 6.6 17.7 32.2 13.9 14.6 11.1 14.8 3.5 24.2 -10.0 29.1 2.1 17.3 -3.0 24.5 -6.3 25.6 35.4 15.1 23.4 20.1 23.2 3.5 43.3 -.9 32.3 5.5 19.3 10.0 32.5 -.2 17.4 28.2 12.2 14.8 9.2 16.0 .3 61.6 -8.7 26.8 -8.5 17.5 1.0 24.0 -6.6 All other operatives .................................................................................. Batch plant operators.............................................................................. Blasters ..................................................................................................... Coil finishers ............................................................................................ Cutters, machine ..................................................................................... Cutters, portable machine....................................................................... Cutter-finisher operators, rubber goods ................................................. Cutting machine operators, fo o d ............................................................. Die cutters and clicking machine operators........................................... Dressmakers, except factory.................................................................. Drillers, hand and machine..................................................................... Dyers........................................................................................................ Exterminators........................................................................................... Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers.................................................... 4,229.9 8.0 9.1 7.4 28.8 16.9 7.4 12.0 20.2 46.0 18.2 13.4 25.6 125.2 4,801.0 9.7 11.6 8.9 31.9 18.3 9.3 11.5 21.2 48.9 24.1 15.0 33.7 151.4 5,102.3 10.3 12.9 9.7 33.9 20.1 9.4 12.3 22.3 53.1 26.7 15.9 37.4 168.5 4,853.5 10.2 12.0 9.1 32.5 18.6 9.4 11.7 21.4 50.5 25.0 14.9 35.2 155.3 13.5 21.1 28.3 19.6 10.6 8.1 26.0 -4.0 4.9 6.4 32.8 12.2 31.6 20.9 20.6 29.0 42.5 30.4 17.7 19.0 26.8 2.3 10.6 15.4 46.8 18.3 46.2 34.6 14.7 27.2 32.7 21.9 12.6 9.9 27.2 -2.4 6.1 9.8 37.4 10.9 37.5 24.1 See footnotes at end of table. 85 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 1980-90 (High I) (Low) 1980-90 (High II) 82.4 115.3 120.5 115.6 39.9 46.1 40.2 1,660.3 112.2 5.8 26.6 9.9 41.0 455.3 466.1 48.9 55.9 10.4 29.3 7.1 50.1 16.3 6.2 9.3 68.9 27.7 9.7 36.9 21.5 41.4 94.5 9.4 1,979.0 120.4 5.1 28.5 12.2 55.4 580.3 529.0 59.4 64.1 10.6 37.0 8.5 66.6 18.4 6.8 9.3 82.9 28.9 12.2 37.4 24.3 46.3 126.4 8.6 2,153.4 137.3 5.6 31.7 13.1 59.6 613.9 600.9 64.1 68.0 12.7 37.8 8.8 74.1 21.1 8.1 9.9 85.3 35.0 14.1 37.6 27.8 45.9 131.5 9.6 2,057.9 126.8 5.2 28.7 12.3 59.1 598.8 564.5 60.1 64.5 11.7 36.0 8.2 68.7 19.8 7.5 10.2 82.5 32.3 13.1 37.3 26.1 45.7 129.8 9.0 19.2 7.3 -11.7 7.2 23.5 35.3 27.4 13.5 21.5 14.6 1.8 26.2 20.2 33.0 12.9 9.2 .5 20.3 4.4 26.6 1.5 13.3 11.9 33.8 -8.3 29.7 22.4 -4.2 19.2 32.3 45.3 34.8 28.9 31.0 21.6 22.9 28.8 24.9 48.0 29.3 30.9 6.4 23.7 26.4 45.6 1.8 29.5 11.0 39.2 1.5 23.9 13.1 -10.9 7.9 24.2 44.2 31.5 21.1 23.0 15.4 13.0 22.8 15.8 37.1 20.9 20.9 10.2 19.7 16.5 35.8 1.2 21.3 10.4 37.4 -4.8 1,751.3 8.3 8.9 103.4 29.3 41.3 219.2 5.9 50.4 6.5 648.1 19.5 7.4 63.3 102.2 393.0 22.2 18.3 2,122.5 9.7 11.3 151.6 32.3 48.5 255.8 6.9 59.1 7.3 800.7 25.0 8.7 72.2 118.6 458.9 26.1 26.1 2,214.6 9.8 11.8 154.2 33.0 49.3 260.3 7.0 60.2 7.4 867.3 26.2 8.8 73.5 120.7 467.0 26.5 27.4 2,144.6 9.7 11.7 151.8 32.3 48.6 256.2 6.9 59.2 7.3 819.6 24.4 8.7 72.3 118.8 459.7 26.1 27.1 21.2 17.1 27.1 46.5 10.4 17.3 16.7 17.2 17.3 13.0 23.5 28.1 17.3 14.0 16.0 16.8 17.3 42.8 26.5 19.1 33.0 49.1 12.9 19.3 18.8 19.3 19.3 14.9 33.8 34.3 19.3 16.1 18.1 18.8 19.3 49.7 22.5 17.3 32.1 46.8 10.5 17.5 16.9 17.4 17.5 13.1 26.5 25.4 17.5 14.2 16.2 17.0 17.5 48.1 988.4 393.7 23.2 86.7 6.4 478.4 980.7 411.2 18.5 99.7 2.2 449.0 992.5 416.2 18.7 100.9 2.3 454.4 987.0 413.8 18.6 100.4 2.3^ 451.9 -.8 4.4 -20.1 15.1 -64.9 -6.1 .4 5.7 -19.2 16.4 -63.5 -5.0 -.1 5.1 -19.6 15.8 -64.3 -5.5 203.9 254.2 269.6 256.0 24.6 32.2 25.5 All other service workers.......................................................................... 518.3 629.8 666.2 637.2 21.5 28.6 22.9 Laborers, except farm ............................................................................... Animal caretakers.................................................................................... Construction laborers, except carpenter helpers................................... Asphalt rakers....................................................................................... Fence erectors...................................................................................... 5,859.8 94.4 101.6 6.8 6.9 46.0 34.2 7.7 75.6 22.0 116.4 53.3 13.7 6,668.2 112.5 122.2 7.9 8.8 54.5 41.7 9.3 79.5 23.9 148.3 62.5 14.7 7,144.6 121.8 133.1 9.4 9.3 60.0 43.9 10.5 84.2 23.9 157.6 68.0 15.1 6,790.5 123.9 124.9 8.1 9.0 55.5 42.8 9.6 88.8 22.7 158.4 63.5 14.8 13.8 19.3 20.2 15.1 27.3 18.4 21.8 21.7 5.2 8.5 27.4 17.2 7.8 21.9 29.1 30.9 37.4 34.2 30.5 28.2 36.7 11.4 8.5 35.4 27.7 10.1 15.9 31.3 22.9 18.2 30.5 20.6 25.0 25.0 17.5 3.2 36.1 19.1 8.2 Psychiatric aides...................................................................................... Selected personal service workers ..................................... Baggage handlers and porters............................................................... Bellhops, bag porters, and doorkeepers................................................ Child care attendants............................................................................... Child care workers, except private household....................................... .............................................. Cosmetologists and women’s hairstylists 1 Flight attendants...................................................................................... Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers........................................... Welfare service aides .............................................................................. Personal service workers, n.e.c............................................................... Protective service workers ....................................................................... Bailiffs...................................................................................................... Checkers, fitting room .............................................................................. Correction officials and ja ile rs................................................................ Crossing or bridge tenders ..................................................................... Crossing guards, school.......................................................................... Firefighters ............................................................................................... Fire inspectors......................................................................................... Fire officers.............................................................................................. Fish and game wardens.......................................................................... Guards and doorkeepers ........................................................................ Lifeguards................................................................................................. Police detectives ..................................................................................... Police officers .......................................................................................... Police patrolmen/women ........................................................................ Sheriffs..................................................................................................... Store detectives....................................................................................... Private household workers....................................................................... Child care workers, private household................................................... Housekeepers, private household........................................................... Laundresses, private household.............................................................. Maids and servants, private household ................................................. Reinforcing-iron workers....................................................................... All other construction laborers.............................................................. Cannery workers ..................................................................................... Chain offbearers, lumber......................................................................... Cleaners, vehicle..................................................................................... Conveyor operators and tenders ............................................................ Forest conservation workers .................................................................. See footnotes at end of table. 86 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Percent change Employment, all industries Occupation 1980 Floor sanding machine operators ........................................................... Fuel pump attendants and lubricators.................................................... Furnace operators and tenders, except m etal....................................... Kiln operators, minerals........................................................................ Stationary boiler firers........................................................................... All other furnace operators and tenders, except metal ...................... Furniture assemblers and installers........................................................ Miscellaneous machine operatives: Meat and d a iry ................ All other food................................................... Tobacco................................................................................. Lumber and furniture.......................................................... Paper .......................................................................................... Chemicals................................................................................. Rubber and plastics............................................................... Leather ................................................................................... Stone, clay, gla ss............................................................................. Primary m etals............................................................................. Manufacturing, n.e.c....................................................................... Nonmanufacturing, n.e.c......................................................................I Miscellaneous operatives, durable goods, n.e.c............................... Miscellaneous operatives, nondurable goods, n.e.c......................... Mixing operatives..................................................................................... Nailing machine operators ...................................................................... O ilers........................................................................................................ Photographic process workers............................................................... Power screwdriver operators.................................................................. Punch and stamping press operators, except m etal............................. Riveters..................................................................................................... Rotary drill operators..................................... ......................................... Rotary drill operator helpers................................................................... Sandblasters and shotblasters............................................................... Sanders, w ood......................................................................................... Shear and slitter operators, metal .......................................................... Shoemaking machine operators.............................................................. Surveyor helpers ..................................................................................... Termite treaters and helpers.................................................................. Tire changers and repairers.................................................................... Winding operatives, n.e.c.......................................................................... Coil winders........................................................................................... Paper reel and rewinder operators ...................................................... Winders, paper machine....................................................................... All other winding operatives, n.e.c........................................................ Wirers, electronic..................................................................................... Wood machinists..................................................................................... Operatives, n.e.c....................................................................................... Service workers.......................................................................................... 1990 (Low) 1990 (High I) 1990 (High II) 1980-90 1980-90 (Low) (High I) 1980-90 (High II) 12.3 401.3 62.0 7.4 48.4 6.2 8.8 10.9 475.1 64.6 7.6 50.5 6.5 10.8 12.2 491.9 67.2 7.9 52.5 6.7 11.5 11.4 481.4 64.6 7.5 50.7 6.5 10.8 -11.3 18.4 4.2 2.6 4.4 4.8 21.9 -1.2 22.6 8.4 7.7 8.5 8.3 30.8 -7.8 19.9 4.2 1.2 4.7 4.1 22.6 47.9 73.6 7.6 47.5 106.5 153.4 218.4 8.2 47.1 85.6 87.9 40.0 99.1 250.8 51.5 9.4 40.9 76.6 8.5 5.3 14.2 22.6 39.7 11.6 20.9 31.2 64.9 55.8 8.8 ' 60.7 49.6 31.0 5.5 5.7 7.4 30.7 25.5 1,488.2 45.6 78.5 7.1 58.9 117.8 166.6 283.5 8.2 53.2 100.2 101.9 42.9 122.9 257.2 51.3 11.0 48.2 81.2 10.6 6.5 17.2 24.2 42.3 14.3 26.5 37.0 54.1 67.3 11.6 70.9 58.0 36.8 6.1 6.3 8.8 35.1 32.9 1,678.5 48.6 83.3 7.8 60,0 120.3 175.9 291.9 8.7 55.9 105.8 107.3 45.6 128.4 275.6 54.9 10.9 52.4 89.1 11.3 6.8 18.7 25.5 44.6 15.5 28.0 40.5 58.8 69.8 12.9 76.8 62.1 40.4 6.2 6.3 9.2 38.4 34.0 1,798.9 44.7 80.9 7.3 55.6 118.9 172.2 282.2 8.3 53.7 100.5 102.7 42.2 122.5 258.7 51.9 10.9 49.0 81.0 10.6 6.4 17.6 24.0 42.0 14.4 26.1 37.8 54.6 68.0 12.1 73.0 59.0 37.6 6.1 6.3 9.0 36.2 32.4 1,701.7 -4.8 6.7 -5.8 23.8 10.5 8.6 29.8 .1 12.9 17.1 15.9 7.2 24.0 2.6 -.3 16.7 17.9 6.0 23.6 23.4 20.8 7.2 6.6 22.6 26.7 18.6 -16.5 20.7 32.6 16.8 17.0 18.8 10.3 10.6 19.4 14.4 28.7 12.8 1.3 13.2 3.8 26.2 13.0 14.6 33.7 5.8 18.8 23.6 22.1 14.2 29.5 9.9 6.5 15.7 28.2 16.2 32.3 29.2 31.5 13.0 12.4 33.1 33.6 29.9 -9.3 25.2 47.7 26.4 25.2 30.2 11.2 11.1 25.3 25.1 33.0 20.9 -6.7 9.9 -2.9 17.0 11.6 12.3 29.2 1.5 14.0 17.3 16.8 5.5 23.6 3.2 .8 15.7 20.0 5.7 23.7 21.4 23.7 6.3 5.7 24.1 24.5 21.2 -15.8 22.0 38.7 20.2 19.0 21.3 10.1 10.4 22.7 17.7 27.0 14.3 15,547.1 19,103.4 20,233.6 19,374.1 22.9 30.1 24.6 7,824.6 57.0 457.3 213.9 1,377.8 376.3 447.7 553.8 1,210.1 154.7 1,082.6 91.8 2,084.9 365.9 728.7 25.7 17.6 18.5 11.4 21.6 18.6 25.0 21.0 49.6 32.9 27.6 28.4 21.1 29.4 18.2 32.4 23.2 25.5 18.2 28.0 23.8 32.4 27.3 56.9 40.5 34.7 36.2 27.8 37.0 23.6 26.5 18.3 19.6 12.6 22.7 21.0 25.9 21.5 50.1 33.2 29.0 28.6 21.8 30.5 18.3 Food service workers................................................................................ Bakers, bread and pastry........................................................................ Bartenders................................................................................................ Butchers and meat cutters...................................................................... Cooks, except private households.......................................................... Cooks, institutional ................................................................................ Cooks, restaurant .................................................................................. Cooks, short order and specialty fast foods........................................ Food service workers, fast food restaurants.......................................... Hosts/hostesses, restaurants, lounges, and coffee shops................... Kitchen helpers........................................................................................ Pantry, sandwich, and coffee makers .................................................... Waiters and waitresses ........................................................................... Waiters, assistants................................................................................... All other food service workers ............................................................... 6,183.5 48.1 382.2 190.0 1,122.5 311.1 355.7 455.7 806.3 116.1 839.4 71.4 1,711.3 280.3 615.9 7,771.0 56.6 452.8 211.6 1,365.1 368.9 444.7 551.5 1,206.3 154.3 1,070.7 91.6 2,071.6 362.6 727.8 8,189.2 59.3 479.6 224.5 1,436.5 385.1 471.0 580.3 1,265.3 163.1 1,130.4 97.2 2,187.6 384.0 761.5 Janitors and sextons................................................................................. 2,751.2 3,252.5 3,499.9 3,312.8 18.2 27.2 20.4 Selected health service workers ................................... .......................... Dental assistants..................................................................................... Health aides, except nursing.................................................................. Medical assistants.................................................................................... Nurses aides and orderlies................................. .................................... 1,490.2 138.8 5.0 89.4 1,174.6 2,113.8 193.4 6.6 116.3 1,682.3 2,248.2 197.6 7.0 122.8 1,800.3 2,154.0 191.4 6.8 115.7 1,724.5 41.8 39.4 31.8 30.1 43.2 50.9 42.4 38.9 37.3 53.3 44.5 38.0 35.0 29.5 46.8 See footnotes at end of table. 87 Table C-1. Employment, 1980 and projected 1990 (three alternatives), and percent change, 1980-90 in occupations with 1980 employment of 5,000 or higher—Continued (Thousands) Employment, all industries Occupation 1990 (Low) 1980 1990 (High I) Percent change 1990 (High II) 1980-90 (Low) 1980-90 (High I) 1980-90 (High II) Furnace operators and heater helpers................................................... Garbage collectors.................................................................................. Gardeners and groundskeepers, except farm ........................................ Helpers, trades ........................................................................................ Line service attendants ........................................................................... Loaders, cars and trucks......................................................................... Loaders, tank cars and trucks................................................................ Off-bearers ............................................................................................... Riggers..................................................................................................... Septic tank servicers ............................................................................... Setters and drawers................................................................................ Shakeout workers, foundry ..................................................................... Stock handlers......................................................................................... Order fillers............................................................................................ Stock clerks, sales flo o r....................................................................... Timbercutting and logging workers......................................................... Choker setters, lumber ......................................................................... Fallers and buckers............................................................................... All other timbercutting and logging workers........................................ Work distributors ..................................................................................... All other laborers, except farm ............................................................... 8,3 117.3 652.5 954.8 30.3 6.2 8.8 23.6 28.3 6.1 7.2 10.6 965.0 363.7 601.3 74.6 11.4 46.0 17.2 17.7 2,471.4 9.8 136.5 737.7 1,167.1 31.8 7.6 9.6 27.9 33.1 8.1 7.5 13.8 1,127.4 405.9 721.5 59.1 8.9 36.3 14.0 20.8 2,706.6 10.3 147.5 788.3 1,261.8 33.9 7.4 10.3 28.2 35.3 10.7 7.8 14.5 1,206.5 443.3 763.2 62.7 9.5 38.5 14.8 22.9 2,892.7 9.8 136.5 764.1 1,199.3 32.0 7.2 10.3 26.5 33.8 10.0 7.4 13.8 1,133.1 404.3 728.9 60.8 9.2 37.3 14.3 21.4 2,727.4 18.0 16.4 13.1 22.2 4.7 21.5 10.2 18.2 16.9 32.0 5.1 30.4 16.8 11.6 20.0 -20.8 -22.0 -21.2 -18.6 17.7 9.5 23.5 25.8 20.8 32.2 11.6 17.8 17.9 19.3 24.6 75.2 9.4 37.1 25.0 21.9 26.9 -16.0 -17.1 -16.4 -14.0 29.6 17.0 17.8 16.4 17.1 25.6 5.5 15.1 17.8 12.0 19.5 63.6 2.8 30.4 17.4 11.2 21.2 -18.5 -19.5 -19.0 -16.6 20.7 10.4 Farmers and farm workers ........................................................................ Farmers and farm managers.................................................................... Farmers (owners and tenants) ............................................................... Farm managers ....................................................................................... Farm supervisors and laborers................................................................ Farm supervisors..................................................................................... Farm laborers .......................................................................................... 2,689.2 1,484.2 1,447.0 37.2 1,205.0 30.0 1,175.0 2,193.1 1,230.6 1,200.0 30.6 962.6 24.8 937.8 2,426.3 1,354.9 1,320.6 34.3 1,071.5 27.8 1,043.7 2,327.4 1,281.3 1,247.8 33.6 1,046.1 27.4 1,018.7 -18.4 -17.1 -17.1 -17.9 -20.1 -17.4 -20.2 -9.8 -8.7 -8.7 -7.8 -11.1 -7.4 -11.2 -13.5 -13.7 -13.8 -9.9 -13.2 -8.7 -13.3 1 As a result of differences in definition or data sources, the 1980 and projected 1990 employment data differ from those presented in chapter 4. NOTE: n.e.c.= not elsewhere classified SOURCE: National industry/occupation matrix 88 Table C-2. Occupations with 1980 employment of 4,000 - 4,999 OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Bag sewers Band scroll saw operators Boarding machine operators, hosiery Boring machine operators, wood Business brokers Camp directors Chippers Clock and watch assemblers Cloth feeders and back tenders Coin machine operators and currency sorters Copy markers Instrument makers-A Lease buyers Loading machine operators Messengers, bank Music directors Nuclear engineers Panelboard and grinding mill panelboard operators Picture framers Planer operators Printer-slotter feeders Printer-slotter operators Cutting and creasing press operators Die setters Dividing machine operators Dredge operators EEG technicians Estimators, printing services Film editors Folding machine operators Fourdrinier machine tenders Garment repairers Roll forming machine operators Rolling mill operator helpers Scrappers/strippers Shaper and router operators Shipwrights Signal maintainers Station agents Television camera operators Tower operators Traffic technicians Table C-3. Occupations with 1980 employment of 3,000 - 3,999 OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Automatic maintainers Automatic spring coiling machine operators Baggage handlers Ballast cleaning-machine operators Blockmaking machine operators Blood bank technology specialists Brattice builders Burlers Calender operators, rubber or plastics Camera repairers Loom winder tenders Lumber straighteners Machine adjusters Mattress makers Meat grinders Media analysts Media clerks, estimators, and billers Menders, cloth Metal mold makers and repairers Mixers, stone, clay, and glass Cap sewers Carton-forming machine operators Casters, ingots and pigs Casters, pottery and porcelain Cigarette-making machine operators Classified ad clerks, newspaper Clean out drillers Cloth printers Coater operators, off-machine Coil tapers, hand or machine Novelty workers Opener tenders and waste machine tenders Portfolio managers Power press tenders Pulpers Resawyers Rigging slingers Rug cleaners, hand Service observers Shade ticket markers Concrete mixer operators Concrete pipe makers Concrete vault makers Core layers and sheet turners Corrugator operators Cushion makers Die sinkers Draw-bench operators, tube drawers Drier operators, chemicals, plastics, and rubber Drillers, hand Shell mold and core machine operators Ship riggers Shoe parts sewers, hand Sign erectors Slasher tenders Smash hands Sodabar operators Sound recording and reproduction technicians Springers Still operators, batch or continuous Dye-range operators and spiral-dye-beck tenders Dye-reel operators, jiggers, and pad-machine operators Dye-tub operators and random dyers Electric tool repairers Electromedical equipment repairers Floor workers, glass Folding machine operators, paper Fusing machine operators Guides, travel Loader engineers Taping machine operators Telegraph equipment maintainers Tenter frame operators Tinters Tipple operators Trimmers, plastic Tumbler operators Upholstery trimmers Vacuum plastic forming machine operators Veneer drier feeders Warp tying machine tenders 89 Table C-4. Occupations with 1980 employment of 2,000 - 2,999 OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Actuarial clerks Appraisers Asphalt-plant operators Atmospheric scientists Automatic clippers, veneer Back tenders, cloth printing Baggage porters Beam-dyer operators and package-dyeing-machine operators Beater engineers Beaters Belt makers, apparel Harness placers Heat sealers Hot plate plywood press operators Impregnators, electronic Insulation wrapping/braiding machine operators Lathe operators, wood Making machine catchers Margin clerks Museum curators Natural gas treating unit operators Photolettering machine operators Bias machine operators Blending machine operators Boatswains Bobbin winders, machine and sewing machine Bodymaker operators, tin can Bootblacks Box makers, paperboard Braiding machine operators Brick and tile making machine operators Buffers, shoe parts Building inspectors, fire insurance Picker tenders Pickers Picklers, continuous pickling line Pipeliners Placers Pond workers, lumber Pot tenders Private branch service advisors Protective signal operators Punch press operators, plastics Purchase and sales clerks, security Cake decorators Call-out operators Cancellation clerks Candy makers Cheesemakers Cloth finishing range operators, chief Cloth finishing range tenders, middle Cloth or carpet winders Cloth trimmers, machine Coal washers Coating machine operators Quilling machine operators Railroad police Repairers, shoe finish Right-of-way agents Riveters, heavy Rug cleaners, machine Scrap sorters Skivers Sliver forming and winding operators Smokers Sorters, burned products Convolute and spiral tube winders Corrective therapists Cutting machine operators Dispatchers, airplane Drier operators, textiles and rugs Encapsulators Extrusion press operators, hot billets Feed pellet mill operators Filter/filter press operators Finishers, machine Spotters, washable materials Steel pourer helpers Stitchers, utility Stone setters Tappers, metal Technical directors Technical operators, oil and gas Telegraph plant maintainers Teletype installers Tenoner operators Finishers, pottery and porcelain Flavor room workers, freezer operators Flexo-folder-gluer operators Flexographic press operators Forging and straightening roll operators Form setters, metal road form Forming machine maintainers, glass Gas meter installers Gluing machine operators Gravure press operators Terrazzo workers Timber cruisers Trade recorders Traffic engineers T reers Turbine operators Veneer driers Warp knitting machine operators Wire weavers Wrapping machine operators 90 Table C-5. Occupations with 1980 employment of 1,000 - 1,999 OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Adhesive bandage machine operators Ampule fill, seal, wash operators Assemblers for puller-over Athletic trainers Automatic assembly machine attendants Band builders Batch, furnace, and tank operators, glass Bead flippers Bevelers Billposters Gas dispatchers Gasoline engine and mower repairers Glass blowers Glass cut-off machine operators Glass grinders and watch crystal edge grinders Glaziers, stained glass/joiners Gunsmiths Harness builders and loom changers Head loaders Headers, bottomers, and car droppers Blasters, construction Bleach-range operators and knitting goods bleachers Bleacher operators, pulp Bottoming machine operators, etc. Box estimators Braiding machine tenders Cage makers, hand or machine Calender operators, cloth Carbon black makers Carbon setters Heating pit chargers Histologic technologists Hydraulic press operators, veneer Ingredient scalers Ink workers Inkers, hand and machine Installers, repairers, telephone Instructors, leather/footwear machinery Kettle operators, adhesive Kiln operators, lumber Card grinders Carrier drivers Casket coverers and liners Casters Casters, plastics Catchers Cementers, machine joiner Cementers, oil well Chemical waste treatment plant operators Cigarette filter making machine operators Kiln stack operators Knitters, full fashioned garment Laminating machine operators Laminating machine operators, furniture Layout markers, wood Lehr tenders Letterset press operators Long-wall miner operator helpers Loopers, hosiery Luggage makers Coating mixer tenders Colorists, textiles Compounders Compressors, tablet Computers, prospecting; and computers, seismograph Control panel operators, petroleum Core feeders Corrugator-knife operators Crew schedulers Curers, rubber goods Manifest clerks Manipulators, table/bed operators Marine service station attendants Mathematical technicians Mixer operators, hot metal Mold makers, pottery Mortuary beauticians Mud plant operators Multi-slide machine operators Museum technicians, restorers Custom tailors Cut-off machine operators, tubing Cut-off sawyers, log Cylinder machine tenders Dado operators Decker operators Die mounters Die polishers, wire and tubes Digester operator helpers Digester operators Napper tenders Operators, door machine Pattern cutters Picklers, food Pipe strippers Plastic top installers Pleating machine operators Polishers, glass; and blockers Polishers, mold Power transformer repairers Dipping machine operators Dividend clerks Drapery hangers Drawers-in, hand Drawing-in machine tenders Drier operators, coal and ore Drycleaners, hand Edge gluers Electric meter installers Electrolytic cell makers and repairers Press operators, devulcanized scrap rubber Proof press operators Proofreaders, clerical Prosthetists, orthotists Pulling and lasting machine operators Pumpers, meat Raw cheese workers Recovery operators, papermaking Retort operators Rig builders Elevator installers and repairers Fasteners, machine Fermentation operators Film bookers Fine-graders Fire bosses Firers, marine Freight handlers Fumigators Gang sawyers Rock dust sprayers Rock splitters, quarry Roll builders Rotation molding machine operators Rubber covering machine operators Sawyers, plastics Sawyers, stone Scorers Screen cutters/markers, nonphotographic Screen makers, photographic processing 91 Table C-5. Occupations with 1980 employment of 1,000 ■1,999—Continued OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Second cutters, hand Second loaders Securities cashiers, exchange Security description clerks Setters, molding and coremaking machines Shapers, hand Shellfish processing machine tenders Shooters; and shooters, seismograph Shop repairers, instrument Shuttlers, embroidery Stone cutters, hand Stone polishers Stove tenders and blast furnace keepers Stretcher-leveler operators Stunners Sugar boilers Supercalender operators Tackers, togglers, and pasters Tally clerks, saw mill Termite treater helpers Side lasters Sinter press setters and operators Skin peeling machine operators Slitter-creaser-slotter operators Slitter-scorer-cut-off operators Slotter operators Sorter operators, green lumber Sorters, leather Sorters, upholstery parts Speeder tenders Tire finishers Tire repairers Transfer clerks Tube machine operators, bags Tube molders, fiberglass Umpires U.S. marshalls Veneer lathe operators Veneer repairers, hand Veneer repairers, machine Splicers Sprayers, hand and machine Spring machine operators Stapling machine operators Station engineers, main line Steel die press operators Stereotypers Stewards, ship Stitchers, special machine Stone carvers, hand Vulcanizers, rubber plate Watchcase vulcanizer tenders Watershed tenders Waxing machine operators Wood carving machine operators Wrapper layers Yarder engineers 92 Table C-6. Occupations with 1980 employment under 1,000 OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Abrasive grinders Acetone recovery workers Acidizers Ager operators Ager operators, cellulose Air-drier machine tenders, paper Airdox fitters Anode rebuilders Archivists Art appraisers Casing machine operators Casters, finished or semi-finished products Casters, plaster of paris Casting room operators, cellophane Centrifuge operators, food Chain makers, hand Channeling machine operators Chasers, jewelry and silverware Cheese blenders Cheese casting machine operators Artificial appliance makers Asbestos shingle shear machine operators Asphalt blenders Asphalt heater tenders Asphalt mixing machine tenders Asphalt-plant drier operators Audiometrists Auger machine operators Autoclave operators Automatic lump making machine operators Chocolate temperers, confection Chopped-strand operators Cigar makers, hand Claim agents Clarifiers Clay makers Clay turners Cloth shrinking machine operators Coaches of professional athletes Coater operators, insulation board Automatic rubber hose vulcanizing machine operators Bag builders Baggers, plastics Barley steepers, malt house operators Bath makers Batters-out Bead forming machine operators Beamers, hand Beamers, machine Bed lasters Coater operators, plastics Coaters, pill Coaters, roofing felt Coating inspectors, pipelines Cobblers Concrete wall grinder operators Concrete-stone finishers Condenser setters Conduit tubing machine operators Contour grinders Bed setters Belt builders Belt makers, sanding drums Biochemistry technologists Blanching machine operators Blender conveyor operators Board machine setters Boat patchers, plastic Boil-off machine operators, cloth Bolters Control operators, cryolite bath Cooling machine operators Core analysts Corner cutters Costumers Counter clerks, telegraph office Cracker and cookie machine operators Cremators Creping machine operators Crude oil treaters Bolters, flour Bottom fillers Box cover strippers Breakers Brine makers Brine tank tenders Briquetting machine operators Brown stock washers, blow pit operators Buffers, hides or skins Bulk plant operators, sugar Cryolite recovery operators Crystallizer operators Cullet crusher/washer operators Cupola chargers, insulation Cupola operators, insulation Cut-lace machine operators Cutter and grinder operators Decal appliers Decorators, bakery products Dehairing machine operators Bulk station operators Bulk-systems operators, flour Bull chain operators Bullet processing machine operators Bunch makers, machine Burner tenders, perlite Burnishers Buttermakers Calciner operators Calciners, gypsum Diamond cleaners and sawyers Diamond experts Diamond selectors Dicer operators Die holders Diesel plant operators Diffuser operators/battery operators, sugar Dippers Dispatchers, mine car Dispatchers, refinery Calender machine operators Calendering machine operators, knit goods Capital analysts Carbon arc furnace operators Carbon furnace operators Carbonation equipment tenders, beer Carbonation equipment tenders, sugar Cartridge priming machine operators Case makers Casers Dispatchers, relay Dope pourers, wrappers Dowel machine operators Drapers Drapery and upholstery measurers Drawing-kiln/glass rolling machine operators Dredge dipper tenders Dredge pipe installers Dresser tenders Drier and rewinder operators, rugbacking 93 Table C-6. Occupations with 198C employment under 1,000—Continued OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Drier operators, insulation board Drier tenders, metal scrap Drill punch operators Drillers, machine and drillers, multiple spindle Drivers, assembly line Droppers, fermenting cellar Dry curers Dry starch operators, automatic Drying machine operators Dust operators/ore crushing dust collectors Guide setters Gun perforator loaders Hammersmiths, open die Hand blockers, caps and hats Hand edgers and belt seamers Handbag framers Harness makers Hatters Heaters, coke production Heel attachers Dye tank tenders Dynamite cartridge crimpers Egg processors Electric track switch maintainers Electricians, office Electrotypers Ending machine operators Enrobing machine operators/machine icers Envelope finishing machine operators Envelope folders, hand Heel breasters, leather Heel builders, hand and machine Heel-seat fitters, machine Heel-seat tasters, machine Hi-density finishing operators, insulation board Hide handlers Hide pullers High climbers Hogshead coopers Hose loaders Escorts and chaperons Evaporator operators, chemical Evaporator operators, papermaking Extruder operators Fashion coordinators Feeders/catchers, tobacco Fiberglass bonding machine tenders Field mechanical meter testers Filter cleaners Firers, char-kiln Hose makers Hospital insurance representatives Hydrator operators, lime Hydraulic drillers Hydrogenation operators Icemakers Incising machine operators Instructors, bus and trolley Instrument fitters Instrument repairers, optical Firers, petroleum refining Fireworks makers Flaking roll operators, cereal Flamers Folders, machine Folding machine feeders Foreign reporters Form makers Form tamper operators Formation fracturing operators Jewel-bearing lathe operators Jigger operators Joint cutters, machine Kettle tenders, nonferrous metal Kettle workers, soap Kiln tenders, glass Kiln transfer operators Knife operators Knotting machine operators/tag machine operators Lace roller operators Formation testing operators Four-corners-stayer machine operators Fullers, textile Fur cleaners Fur cutters Fur finishers Fur glazing and polishing machine operators Fur nailers Furnace and burner tenders Furnace combustion analysts Lamp keepers and repairers Lasters, hand Lasting machine operators Lathe operators, grinding wheels Leachers Lead press operators Lead stripping machine operators Leaf conditioners, casers Leather cleaners Leather sprayers Furniture cleaners Furriers Gas pumping station operators Gasket coater and drier operators Gasket winders Gatherers Gem cutters Glass blowing lathe operators Glass calibrators Glass cutters, machine Leather stampers, hand Leather workers Leather workers, surgical Light technicians Limers Line walkers Link-and-link hand knitting machine operators Linter machine tenders Liquefication-and regasification-plant operators Loaders, malt house Glass finishers Glazing machine operators Glove turners and formers Glue spreading machine operators, luggage Gluemakers Grain receivers Graining press operators Granulator machine operators Greasemakers Green anode processors Long-wall miner operators Lump wrappers, hand Mat machine operators Measuring machine operators, leather Melter operators, sugar Mercerizer operators and mangle tenders Metal mold makers Meter readers, taxi Microbiology technologists Microphone boom operators 94 Table C-6. Occupations with 1980 employment under 1,000—Continued OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Mill hands, plate mill Mill roll rewinders, cellophane Millers, clay Milliners Mixers, ores and metals Model and mold makers, plaster Mode! makers, pottery Mogul operators, confection Mold cleaners, tire Mold makers Mold makers, brick, tile, and concrete Mold pressers, hand Molders, fiberglass luggage Molders, machine (drugs) Molders, pattern Molders, shoe parts Molding machine operators, pressers Mortising machine operators Motion picture narrators Nail making, assembly machine operators Needle-felt-making machine operators Nickel plant operators Nitro-cotton operators Observers, electrical and/or gravity prospecting Oil well wall samplers Ordering machine operators Orthopedic cast specialists Orthopists Outside property agents, shoppers Painters, aircraft Paintings restorers ■ Pan greasers, machine Panel/patch/sealing machine operators Paper cup machine operators Paperhanger operators Pattern gaters Patternmakers, plastics Patternmakers, stone Perforator operators Perforator operators, oil well Pilling machine operators Pipe wrapping machine operators Planers, stone Plastics repairers Platform workers, glass Plodder machine operators Polishing-wheel makers Pot liners Potters, mash hand/plug shapers, machine Powder cutting operators Precipitator operators Preparation room workers Press operators, hardboard Press operators, meat Press operators, mica Pressers, expeller operators Process machine operators Processors, solid propellant Property handlers Pullers-over Pulp refiner operators Pulverizer and drier tenders Pump operators, by-products Purification operators Rackers, poolroom Reagent operators Recovery operators, catalysts Refined syrup operators Refiner operators, rubber Refinery operators Refractory grinder operators Refractory molders, hand Rip and groove machine operators Roasters, arc Roasters, food Roller builders, rubber Roller machine operators Rollers Rolling machine operators Roof cement and paint makers Rope laying machine operators Rotary kiln operators Rough rounders, machine Rubber grinder-finisher operators Rubber mold makers Ruling machine operators Saddle makers Sales agents and representatives, financial services Salt washers Salted meats conditioners Sand blasters, stone Sawyers, tail Scouring train operators Scouts Script clerks Seam rubbing machine operators Seamless tube rollers Seasoners, machine Seasoning mixers Security checkers Separation tenders Sewer tappers Shactors Shaker tenders Shakers Shank piece tackers Sheeter operators, plastics Shell machine operators Shoe dyers Shredder operators, cellulose Singers, cloth Sirup makers Skein yarn dyers Skimmers, reverberatory furnace Slab depiler operators Slime press and filter operators Sole levelers, machine Sorters, selectors, and graders, tobacco Sorting machine operators Special effects technicians Spinners, confection Spinners, jewelry and silverware Splicers, rubber products Splitters Splitters, machine Splitting machine feeders Splitting machine tenders Spout workers Spray machine operators Stainers Stakers, machine Staple cutters and/or staple processing machine operators Staplers, mattress and bedspring Stem roller or crusher operators Stemmers, hand Stemmers, machine Stencil cutters Stickers Still operators .Still operators, asphalt 95 Table C-6. Occupations with 1980 employment under 1,000—Continued OES matrix occupation OES matrix occupation Stitchdown thread lasters Stock preparers Stone cutters, machine Stone drillers Story analysts String machine operators/tape fasting operators Striping machine operators, insulating wire Strippers Stripping machine operators Stunt men or stunt women Trench sewer shapers Tube winders, hand Tumbler operators, plastics Twisters, hand Ultrasonic machine operators Vamp creasers Varnish makers Veneer jointer operators Veneer sanders Video recording engineers Vulcanizers, footwear Wallpaper reelers and rolling machine operators Ware finishers, footcasters, handlers Warm-in workers Wash screen operators, explosives Washers, synthetic fibers Tank house operators, copper Tank tenders, silver refining Tanning drum operators/colorers, hides Tanning-liquor makers Taxidermists Thermolasting machine operators Threaders, knit goods Threshers Tire bagging machine tenders Tire layers and extractors Weather clerks Wet machine tenders Winders, roofing felt Wood grinder operators Wringer machine operators Yardage control operators, forming Yeast pushers Toe lasters Transfer controllers, saw mill Treaters Treating engineers 96 Appendix D. Detailed Training Statistics tion Statistics (NCES). In academic year 1982-83, CIPS will replace the two NCES classification systems cur rently being used—the Standard Terminology for Cur riculum and Instruction in Local and State School Sys tems, commonly referred to as Handbook VI, and A Taxonomy o f Instructional Programs in Higher Educa tion, commonly known as the HEGIS Taxonomy. Data in this appendix should be used with caution because they represent only one component of supply and, in some cases, are incomplete and do not match a specific occupation. For a discussion of other sources of supply, see chapter 1. This appendix presents information on one compo nent of supply—structured training programs. It dis cusses the status of current education and training pro grams and provides the latest available data on enroll ments and completions. Training programs discussed include: Public vocational education Private vocational education Employer training Apprenticeship programs Federal employment and training programs Armed Forces training Home study schools Community and junior colleges Colleges and universities Tables D -l through D-7 present detailed statistics on most of these training programs. The type of data pre sented and the time period covered vary by table. Ta ble D -l presents data on enrollments and completions in occupationally specific public vocational education programs during 1979-80. Table D-2 shows the number of enrollments, completions, and persons leaving with or without a marketable skill in private noncollegiate postsecondary vocational education programs during 1979-80. Table D-3 indicates the number of registra tions, cancellations, and completions in apprenticeship program s during calendar year 1979. T ab le D-4 presents data on enlistments in the Armed Forces as of Septem ber 30, 1980. Table D-5 presents the number of associ ate degrees and other formal awards below the bacca laureate granted in academic year 1979-80. Tables D-6 and D-7 present data on bachelor’s, master’s, doctor’s, and first professional degrees granted in academic year 1979-80. Users who wish to relate training statistics to data on job openings should consult the Vocational Preparation and Occupations (VPO), developed by the National Oc cupational Information Coordinating Committee (NOICC). Education programs in the VPO are coded according to the Classification o f Instructional Programs (CIPS),' developed by the National Center for Educa-1 1 VPO includes only CIPS codes related to secondary and post secondary vocational education. Baccalaureate and higher level pro grams are not included. 97 Public vocational education Vocational education programs are conducted on three levels: Secondary; postsecondary; and adult, in which persons already in the labor force retrain or up date and improve job skills. During the 1970’s, the Fed eral Government provided categorical grants (targeted for specific purposes) to elementary and secondary schools to conduct vocational, technical, and continu ing education programs. During the 1980’s, Federal Government funding is likely to be in the form of block grants (for discretionary use) to the States to adminis ter many of these programs. States in the past have strongly supported vocational education programs and are likely to continue this policy. Types o f training available. Vocational education in cludes programs in agriculture, distribution, health, home economics, and office, technical, and trade and industrial education. Other programs, such as consumer and homemaking training and industrial arts, do not generally lead directly to an occupational skill. Special vocational programs for the disadvantaged and handi capped also are provided. Curriculums generally prepare trainees for specific occupations. Table D -l provides data on enrollments and completions in occupationally specific public vo cational education programs during 1979-80. These pro grams, which are offered at or above grade 11, are de signed to impart entry level job skills. Enrollments. Enrollments in public vocational educa tion programs grew from 4.2 million in 1963 to 16.5 million in 1979-80, including over 2 million disadvan In 1980, approximately 72 percent of all private post secondary schools were accredited, State approved, or eligible for Federal student grant and loan programs. While private postsecondary vocational schools out numbered public postsecondary vocational schools by more than 3 1/2 to 1, the average enrollment in private schools—199 students—was only 43 percent of the av erage enrollment in public schools. Large schools typi cally offer a variety of programs in several vocational areas. Some business schools, for example, offer short hand, typing, stenography, and fundamentals of ac counting and computer operations, while many trade schools offer courses ranging from air-conditioning in stallation and repair to welding and cutting operations. On the other hand, small schools generally specialize in a single type of program, such as cosmetology or ra diologic technology. Some programs—flight training, for example—require considerable individual attention and generally have low pupil/teacher ratios; less tech nically complex programs—real estate, for exam ple—can accommodate large numbers of students. taged and 400,000 handicapped persons. The following tabulation, based on data from the NCES, shows the level and percent distribution of total enrollments by major program area. Program area Total .................................................. ...... O ffic e ...................................................... Consumer and hom em aking............ Trade and industrial........................... Industrial a rts....................................... A griculture........................................... H ealth .................................................... Occupational home economics ....... T ech nical............................................... Other ...................................................... Total enrollments Percent distribution 16,453,006 100 3,400,057 3,385,736 3,215,987 1,536,667 961,018 878,529 834,296 551,862 499,305 1,189,549 21 21 20 9 6 5 5 3 3 7 Occupationally specific enrollments, which totaled nearly 6 million in 1979-80, accounted for 36 percent of all public vocational education enrollments. Approxi mately 33 percent of the occupationally specific enroll ments were in office programs, and 30 percent were in trade and industrial programs (see table D-l). Enrollments. Enrollments vary not only by program but also by major field. Private vocational education courses are classified into seven areas similar to those used for public vocational education programs: Agribusiness, marketing/distribution, health, home eco nomics, business/office, technical, and trades and in dustry. In 1980, 37 percent of the 944,000 students en rolled in private noncollegiate postsecondary vocational schools were in trades/industry programs, 26 percent were in marketing/distribution programs, and 22 per cent were in business/office programs (see table D-2). Completions. Nearly 1.9 million persons completed oc cupationally specific public vocational education pro grams during 1979-80, including 234,000 disadvantaged and 45,000 handicapped persons. The distribution of completions by major program area is similar to the distribution of enrollments. About 60 percent of these completions were in office and trade and industrial pro grams, evenly divided between these two major areas (see table D-l). Private vocational education In 1980, the NCES surveyed about one-sixth of all private postsecondary vocational schools (7,432) and recorded 1,479,373 enrollments in 177 different pro grams. The following tabulation indicates the percent distribution of private postsecondary schools with oc cupational programs, by type of school: Completions. In 1980, 580,000 students completed pro grams in private noncollegiate postsecondary vocational schools. Marketing/distribution programs had the largest proportion of completions (34 percent), followed by trades/industry programs (32 percent) and busi ness/office programs (17 percent). Over 40,000 students did not complete their training but left with a market able skill. Table D-2 provides data on enrollments, com pletions, and persons leaving with or without a mar ketable skill by detailed occupational program. Percent C osm etology/barber............................................................. Business/commercial ............................................................ Flight s c h o o l........................................................................... Trade school ........................................................................... Hospital school ...................................................................... College/university ................................................................. Allied health ........................................................................... A rts/d esign .............................................................................. Junior/community c o lle g e .................................................. Technical institute ................................................................. Vocational/technical ............................................................ O th er......................................................................................... 29 19 12 10 9 5 4 3 3 2 1 3 Employer training Many companies in private industry have developed educational training programs to meet their needs. Gen erally, these programs serve three purposes: (1) To train new employees, (2) to improve the performance of em ployees in their present jobs, and (3) to prepare em ployees for new jobs and responsibilities. Training varies among occupations. Skilled and semi skilled occupations have three on-the-job training paths—apprenticeship, structured on-the-job instruc tion, and learning by doing. Structured instruction may Of all private postsecondary schools with occupa tional programs, 83 percent were proprietary and were generally single-program schools; the remainder were nonprofit and were predominantly hospital schools and colleges and universities with occupational programs. 98 1. Only 15 percent of all establishments in the four metalworking industries selected provided structured occupational training in the 14 oc cupations studied. 2. Establishments with 1,000 employees or more accounted for 44 percent of all enrollments in structured training. 3. About 71 percent of all structured training was conducted to qualify employees for work in an occupation; 29 percent was to improve current job skills. 4. More than two-thirds of all structured occu pational training was provided on the job. 5. Establishments provided training primarily be cause they felt job skills could best be taught in their own training programs and because em ployees’ education or training was inadequate. 6. Employee interest in an occupation was the primary factor used to select employees for training. range from scheduled training conducted by designated instructors to periodic training from supervisors and fellow employees. Unstructured training or learning by doing often involves simple directions on how to per form a routine task on a machine; further skills then are acquired through work experience or developed at the employee’s initiative. White-collar employees also may receive structured training. In many companies, structured training usu ally consists of “in-house” programs that offer courses during or after working hours. These courses normally are designed to meet specific company needs and often are offered by professional associations. In the banking industry, for example, the American Institute of Bank ing offers programs in 12 areas of banking, such as trusts, commercial lending, and bank marketing. In addition, companies may allow employees to en roll in college or university courses. For example, un der the tuition-aid program, employees may be partially or fully reimbursed for job-related courses taken after working hours. Occasionally, employees are permitted to take outside courses on company time or even to arrange for extended educational leaves of absence. Limited data indicate that companies use education and training programs quite extensively. In a 1975 sur vey of firms with 500 or more employees, the Confer ence Board2 found that of the 32 million employed, 4.3 million participated in “in-house” company programs, and 1.25 million were in tuition-aid programs. Although firms with fewer than 500 employees often do not have the resources to develop “in-house” programs, tui tion-aid programs are not uncommon among these companies. The lack of data on employer training hinders de tailed analysis of occupational training and supply, how ever. BLS, with the support of the Employment and Training Administration (ETA), conducted a pilot sur vey in 1970 to test the feasibility of collecting data on occupational training in selected industries, and to de termine the best method of collecting such data.3 The results encouraged the Bureau, with further support from ETA, to conduct a nationwide, full-scale mail sur vey of employer training in nearly 5,000 establishments in 1975 and early 1976 on training provided in 1974. The resulting report, published in 1977, describes the characteristics of occupational training provided by em ployers in 14 selected occupations in four metalwork ing industries.4 Apprenticeship programs Training authorities generally recommend appren ticeship as the best way to acquire all-round proficiency in a craft. Most apprenticeships range from 3 to 5 years, depending upon the particular trade involved. These programs involve planned on-the-job training in con junction with related classroom instruction—generally 144 hours each year. Mastery of a particular trade re quires: (1) Learning the skills of the trade, (2) perfect ing the use of each specific skill, and (3) bringing each skill up to the speed and accuracy required of the job. Most apprenticeship programs have committees of employers and local trade unions that interview appli cants, review the trainee’s progress, and determine when an apprenticeship has been completed satisfactorily. Most programs are registered with Federal and State apprenticeship agencies, but sponsors are not required to register their programs. Some companies unilaterally plan, control, and tailor apprenticeship programs to their particular needs and, therefore, prefer not to reg ister their programs with apprenticeship agencies. Un fortunately, no estimate is available of the number of apprentices in programs that are not registered. The Department of Labor’s Bureau of Apprentice ship and Training (BAT) registers, but does not finance, apprenticeship programs. BAT provides technical as sistance and support to State apprenticeship agencies and to employers and unions in establishing and main taining apprenticeship programs. Through 1979, BAT 2Seymour Lusterman, Education in Industry, Report 719 (New York, The Conference Board, Inc., 1977). 3“The BLS Pilot Survey o f Training in Industry,” M onthly Labor Review, February 1974, pp. 26-32. 4Occupational Training in Selected Metalworking Industries: A Report on a Survey o f Selected Occupations, 1974, BLS Bulletin 1976/ETA R&D Monograph 53 (U.S. Department o f Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration, 1977). 5 Apprenticeship Registration Actions, by Region and State (annual) through 1979 may be obtained from the Division o f Reporting Op erations, Employment and Training Administration, U.S. Department o f Labor, Washington, D.C. 20210. In addition, the 1981 Employment and Training Report o f the President contains a tabulation o f the train ing status o f registered apprentices through 1979. 99 maintained records of new registrations, completions, and cancellations of apprenticeships for each apprenticeable trade by State.5 (Availability of these data in 1980 and beyond was uncertain as this publication went to press.) The nearly 325,000 registered apprentices in training at the end of 1979 (see table D-3) represent the largest number in training since 1941 when these data were first recorded. Since 1941, nearly 1.2 million appren tices have completed training. In the last 10 years, how ever, about 475,000 apprentices have completed train ing—about two-fifths of the total since 1941. Annual fluctuations in the number of completions often reflect job market conditions. Of the 43,454 registered apprenticeship completions in 1979, about 55 percent were in construction occupa tions, nearly 15 percent each in production occupations and mechanic and repairer occupations, and the remain ing 16 percent in service, technologist and technician, transportation and material moving, and other miscel laneous occupations. Although apprenticeship cancellations represent a po tential loss of highly trained workers, many dropouts eventually become skilled craft workers through less structured means. In some instances, particularly when jobs are abundant, apprentices drop their training pro gram in favor of earning a skilled worker’s wage im mediately. When the job market is depressed, however, they are more likely to complete their apprenticeships. In other instances, trainees who cancelled may have acquired enough experience to reenter the occupation at another time. Trainees sometimes are dropped invol untarily during extended periods of construction inac tivity or high unemployment. cifically targeted for national programs—the Job Corps and programs for Indians, migrants, older workers, vet erans, displaced workers, the handicapped, and others. Federal employment and training programs The Federal Government has conducted structured employment and training programs since the enactment of the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA) of 1962. With the passage of the Comprehen sive Employment and Training Act (CETA) of 1973 and CETA amendments of 1978, programs were de centralized. Although the Federal Government has re tained a few programs, such as the Work Incentive (WIN) Program, most Federal employment and train ing funds now are distributed to State and local gov ernments, along with the responsibility for planning and managing these programs. At the time this publication went to press, CETA was expected to be replaced with a job training pro gram that would distribute block grants to States to provide job training to out-of-school 16- to 25-year-olds and to recipients of Aid to Families With Dependent Children. Training funds would focus on fields short of skilled workers, and would range from entry level po sitions to highly skilled jobs. Some funds would be spe Work Incentive (WIN) Program. The WIN Program helps employable recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children get and keep jobs. WIN, which is administered jointly by the Department of Labor and the Department of Health and Human Services through State employment services and welfare agencies, pro vides job development services and referrals and helps to provide employment, subsidizes employment, and provides limited training and supportive services, as needed. After an interview to determine a person’s job po tential and needs, an employability plan is started to identify the services and activities needed to get a job. WIN tries to place people in unsubsidized jobs. Of the 1 million persons registered during fiscal year 1981, 319,000 were placed in unsubsidized jobs. Comprehensive Em ploym ent and Training A c t (CETA). Under CETA, all States, cities, and counties with populations of 100,000 or more receive Fed eral grants to run comprehensive employment and train ing programs in their localities. Some smaller units and rural areas also qualify for Federal allocations. Eligible units, called prime sponsors, receive funds to provide some of the services or to contract with others. The amount each prime sponsor receives is based upon its current population, unemployment rate, training needs, and number of economically disadvantaged persons. To receive Federal funds, every eligible sponsor—475 in fiscal year 1981— must submit a comprehensive plan describing its area, the services to be provided, and persons to be served. Every State and area that operates a comprehensive employment development program must have a plan ning council whose members represent clients, labor, business, education, community organizations, the em ployment services, training agencies, and, where appro priate, agriculture. The councils help governments de cide on the services needed and check on program operations. In fiscal year 1981, CETA served about 2.4 million individuals, not counting nearly a million youth in sub sidized summer jobs. About 44 percent received class room training, 6 percent obtained on-the-job training, and 19 percent were provided work experience. The remainder received a variety of services designed to improve their employability. Job Corps. The Job Corps assists youth between 16 and 21 years of age, mostly school dropouts, who have poor educational records and who are “economically disadvantaged’’ to become employable and productive. 100 The program provides basic educational and vocational skills as well as social skills and counseling, medical, dental, and other support. The Job Corps differs from other Federal employment programs in that centers provide residential living 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Centers vary in enrollment from 170 to 2,600 and serve men, women, or both; they may be urban or rural. Fields in which training was offered in fiscal year 1981 included clerical-sales, services, forestry-farming, food service, auto and machine repair, construction, electrical appliance repair, industrial production, trans portation, and health occupations. Of the 114,000 stu dents enrolled, approximately 72,000 had left the pro gram by year-end, of whom about 44,600 were reported as completing the training. About 27,400 students left before completing their training, which generally lasts from 9 months to 2 years. About 26,600 of those completing their training were reported to be available for placement. About 17,000 (64 percent) of those available obtained job placements, with 6,900 being placed in their chosen field. Most of the remainder of those completing training—about 18,000—received school or military placement. Armed Forces training The Armed Forces provide training in hundreds of specialized occupational skills. Each year, thousands of military recruits complete extensive training in com puter repair, medical care, food service, metalworking, and many other fields. When these persons leave the military, they often possess skills that qualify them for specialized civilian occupations. However, some military skills are not directly com parable to those needed in civilian jobs or are specific only to the needs of the Armed Forces. Most of these persons will need additional training after they leave the service to qualify for civilian job s that are similar to their military jobs. For example, a navigation/bombing training and flight simulator specialist has many, but not all, of the skills needed to become an electronic technician. A few military skills, such as those learned by infantry specialists, are unique to the military and have limited application to civilian jobs. In an effort to assist military personnel in utilizing their training to qualify for civilian jobs, the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps, in concert with the Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training, have established reg istered apprenticeship programs for uniformed person nel. Only occupations that are comparable or identical to civilian occupations are registered. Individuals par ticipating in a program record their hours of training and work assignments in a logbook that documents their service experience and which can be presented to an employer, labor union, or joint apprenticeship commit tee when they apply for a job. The largest proportion of Armed Forces enlistees train in the mechanical and technical areas. The fol lowing tabulation shows the number of enlisted person nel in each of the nine major occupational groups as of September 30, 1980: Infantry, guncrews, and seamanship specialists................... Electronic equipment repairers........................................ Communications and intelligence specialists........................ Medical and dental specialists.................................................. Other technical and allied specialists..................................... Functional support and administration .................................. Electrical and mechanical equipment repairers................... Craft w ork ers................................................................................ Service and supply handlers...................................................... 242,389 154,559 145,012 77,604 37,723 269,849 348,461 70,636 156,228 Table D-4 provides more detail on these occupational groups. To aid in “translating” military job titles, the Depart ment of Defense has compiled a military-civilian job comparability manual. The Military-Civilian Occupa tional Source Book relates military jobs by service branch to their civilian counterparts as identified in the De partment of Labor’s Dictionary o f Occupational Titles. Although intended for use by high school guidance counselors, the manual can also serve as a useful tool for employees and vocational counselors involved in job placement for veterans. Home study schools Home study (correspondence) schools provide many individuals with an alternative means of education and training. Since many people are unable to attend school for one reason or another, taking a training program through home study is their only alternative for gain ing a skill. Courses offered through home study pro grams vary in length, skill level, and degree of special ization, and emphasize vocational, academic, or simply personal enrichment. In 1980, about 2.5 million persons were enrolled in home study courses, according to the National Home Study Council (NHSC). Enrollment in Federal Gov ernment and military programs totaled 1.5 million; 1.1 million students took courses offered by the 77 schools accredited by the NHSC; most of the remaining home study students were enrolled in programs offered by religious organizations and colleges and universities. Correspondence schools generally require students to complete a certain number of lessons within a speci fied length of time to obtain a certificate of completion. Correspondence school students have a completion rate of about 55 percent. Since 1976, the NCES has collected data on one source of home study—private noncollegiate post secondary correspondence schools. Data appear in Enrollments and Programs in Noncollegiate Post secondary Schools. 101 Based on the information available, home study schools should remain a significant source of training for many men and women because it is a convenient and relatively low-cost method of obtaining new knowl edge or skills. Colleges and universities Colleges and universities serve many purposes, in cluding providing individuals with specific occupational training. A college education provides the necessary background to enter fields such as engineering, law, business, the humanities, and the natural sciences. The length of a college education depends on the student’s interests and career goals. Most students seek employment after obtaining a bachelor’s degree, which usually requires 4 years. Those who wish to qualify for positions requiring more specialized knowledge often continue their study. Master’s, doctorate, and profes sional degree programs require several additional years of study after the bachelor’s degree. Occasionally, these programs accept exceptional students after 2 or 3 years of undergraduate work. College and university enrollments increased steadily during the 1960’s and early 1970’s—from 4,748,000 in 1965 to 7,215,000 in 1975. The rate of increase slowed during the late 1970’s—to 7,571,000 by 1980. The NCES projects that enrollments will level off in the early 1980’s—to 7,789,000 in 1982—then decline slowly dur ing the late 1980’s to 7,101,000 by 1990. The number of degrees conferred by colleges and universities is closely related to enrollments. During academic year 1979-80, 1,330,000 persons earned de grees—929,000 bachelor’s degrees, 298,000 master’s de grees, 33,000 doctoral degrees, and 70,000 first profes sional degrees. NCES projects that the total number of degrees will increase to 1,405,000 in academic year 1984-85, then drop off to 1,339,000 by academic year 1989-90.7 Tables D-6 and D-7 show the number of degrees conferred by major field of study. Of course, many graduates do not pursue careers in their field of study, but studies have shown that the proportion of gradu ates of occupational curriculums who directly enter re lated occupations tends to be very high, particularly if training takes a number of years. For example, nearly all medical school graduates enter medicine and most engineering school graduates enter engineering. How ever, for many liberal arts graduates, whose training is less occupationally oriented, entry rates into occupa tions related to a college major are substantially lower. This is especially true at the bachelor’s degree level since many graduates enter professional school, teach ing, or occupations for which a college degree in any one of a number of fields may be adequate preparation. A recent survey by NCES collected data on the la bor force status in February 1978 of people who re ceived bachelor’s degrees between July 1976 and June Community and junior colleges Community and junior colleges play an integral part in the American educational system. By offering a wide variety of courses and programs, these schools enable many students from diverse backgrounds to obtain oc cupational and educational training beyond high school. For students interested in transferring to a 4-year col lege, many programs are designed to provide a general educational background in arts and sciences. Students who wish to specialize in a particular field may enroll in vocational or occupational curriculums, such as den tal hygiene or data processing. Typically, programs in junior and community colleges last 2 years and result in an associate degree. Some programs last less than 2 years and students are granted certificates or other awards upon completion. According to the NCES, enrollments in 2-year insti tutions of higher education doubled over the 1970-80 period—from 2,223,000 to 4,526,000. NCES projects that enrollments in 2-year institutions will increase steadily through the 1980’s—to 5,000,000 by 1990. During the 1970-80 period, awards of associate de grees increased by 60 percent, according to recent sur veys.6 A shift in student attitudes, placing more value on job training, was apparently a factor in the upsurge in associate degrees awarded. Associate degrees in oc cupational curriculums grew by 134 percent over the 1970-80 period, while degrees in the arts and sciences increased by only 5 percent. In academic year 1979-80, 63 percent of all associate degrees were awarded in oc cupational curriculums, while 37 percent were awarded in arts and sciences and general programs. Table D-5 provides detailed data on associate degrees and other formal awards below the baccalaureate granted during academic year 1979-80. Because community and junior colleges can quickly adjust their programs to meet new employment situa tions and student interests, radical changes in enroll ments in particular curriculums can and do take place in a short period of time. For this reason, NCES does not project the number of enrollments in specific cur riculums. Some information on future enrollments may be obtained from State and local community and jun ior college administrators. 6 The Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS) o f NCES provides annual data on associate degrees and other awards below the baccalaureate, including those granted by 4-year colleges. In 1979-80, 2-year institutions awarded 86 percent o f these degrees. 102 7 Projections, along with a discussion o f the projection methodol ogy, are published by NCES in Projections o f Education Statistics to 1990-91. 1977 8The Bureau of Labor Statistics also has analyzed these data for all graduates and for each of 19 major fields of study. Information on the labor force, occu pational, and graduate school status of each of these 8 The results o f the survey are published by NCES in New Teachers in the Job Market and Occupations o f Recent College Graduates. 103 groups is presented in an article, “College Majors and Jobs,” in the Summer 1982 issue of the Occupational Outlook Quarterly. Additional followup studies of col lege students and graduates are available from surveys conducted by college placement offices, professional societies, and other organizations. Most of these data are limited to graduates from a single institution or field. Table D-j1. Enrollments and completions in occupationally specific1 public vocational education programs, 1979-80 DOE Instructional code Enrollments Completions 5,979,508 Title 1,857,934 01. 01.0100 01.0200 01.0300 01.0400 01.0500 01.0600 01.0700 01.9900 Agriculture, t o t a l ........................................................................................................................... Agricultural p ro d u ctio n ........................................................................................................ Agricultural supplies/services............................................................................................... Agricultural mechanics........................................................................................................... Agricultural products.............................................................................................................. Horticulture .............................................................................................................................. Renewable natural resources.................................................................................................. F o res try .................................................................................................................................... Other agriculture..................................................................................................................... 384,940 173,052 21,517 66,727 4,922 71,358 14,331 11,213 21,820 140,483 64,483 8,196 25,716 2,006 22,601 4,263 3,551 9,667 04. 04.0100 04.0200 04.0300 04.0400 04.0500 04.0600 04.0700 04.0800 04.0900 04.1000 04.1100 04.1200 04.1300 04.1500 04.1700 04.1800 04.1900 04.2000 04.9900 Distribution, total........................................................................................................................... Advertising services................................................................................................................. Apparel and accessories........................................................................................................ A u to m o tiv e .............................................................................................................................. Finance and c r e d it .................................................................................................................. F lo ris try .................................................................................................................................... Food distribution..................................................................................................................... Food services........................................................................................................................... General merchandise.............................................................................................................. Hardware, building m a te ria ls ............................................................................................... Home furnishings..................................................................................................................... Hotel and lodging..................................................................................................................... Industrial m a rk e tin g .............................................................................................................. Insurance.................................................................................................................................... Personal services........................................................................................................................ Real estate......................................... '....................................................................................... Recreation and to u ris m ........................................................................................................ T ransp ortation ........................................................................................................................ Retail trade, o t h e r ................................................................................................................. Other distributive education.................................................................................................. 601,275 12,977 22,515 5,454 36,364 4,959 22,769 31,462 186,107 2,876 2,565 14,067 18,062 5,840 4,596 106,616 16,064 14,113 13,612 80,257 228,976 3,681 9,680 2,746 6,448 2,251 12,594 16,227 72,446 1,676 950 2,764 4,812 1,768 2,230 39,578 4,482 4,713 6,209 33,721 07. 07.0101 07.0102 07.0103 07.0203 07.0299 07.0301 07.0302 07.0303 07.0399 07.0400 07.0501 07.0800 07.0903 07.0904 07.0906 07.0907 07.9900 Health, to ta l.................................................................................................................................... Dental assisting........................................................................................................................ Dental hygiene (associate)..................................................................................................... Dental laboratory technology............................................................................................... Medical laboratory assisting.................................................................................................. Othermedical laboratory technology.................................................................................. Nursing, associate degree........................................................................................................ Practical (vocational) nursing............................................................................................... Nursing assistance (aid e)........................................................................................................ Other nursing........................................................................................................................... Rehabilitation........................................................................................................................... Radiologic technology ( X - r a y ) ............................................................................................ Mental health technology..................................................................................................... In h a la tio n th e ra p y t e c h n o l o g y ............................................................................................ Medical assisting........................................................................................................................ Community health a i d e ........................................................................................................ Medical emergency technician............................................................................................... Other health education........................................................................................................... 455,129 16,371 7,433 5,105 13,271 4,831 104,753 73,968 49,572 16,760 7,956 10,705 10,324 10,096 20,218 7,866 20,916 74,984 147,881 6,986 2,085 1,505 2,479 1,187 24,523 29,660 24,850 6,512 1,695 2,653 1,835 2,948 5,816 3,605 6,706 22,836 09.02 09.0201 09.0202 09.0203 09.0204 09.0205 09.0299 Occupational preparation, to ta l.................................................................................................. Care and guidance of children............................................................................................... Clothing management, production, and services............................................................... Food management, production, and services.................................................................. Home furnishing, equipment, and services......................................................................... Institutional and home management and services............................................................ Other occupational preparation for homemaking............................................................ 242,087 93,795 27,753 76,726 9,313 5,356 29,144 90,935 30,478 9,853 30,550 2,249 2,330 15,475 14. 14.0100 14.0201 14.0203 14.0299 14.0300 14.0400 14.0500 14.0600 14.0700 14.0800 14,0900 14.9900 Office occupations, to ta l.............................................................................................................. Accounting and computing occupations............................................................................ Computer and console operators........................................................................................ Programmers.............................................................................................................................. Other business data processing............................................................................................ Filing, office machines, clerical occupations..................................................................... Information, communication occupations......................................................................... Materials support, transportation, etc.................................................................................. Personnel, training, and related occupations..................................................................... Stenography, secretarial, and related occupations............................................................ Supervisory and administrative management occupations............................................ Typing and related occupations............................................................................................ Other office occupations........................................................................................................ 1,970,518 414,543 40,771 76,616 95,134 409,517 38,673 3,547 22,702 421,029 182,217 200,622 65,147 563,312 107,409 12,209 15,402 18,917 122,758 13,016 1,016 4,341 125,731 24,771 85,169 32,573 See footnotes at end of table. 104 Table D-1. Enrollments and completions in occupationally specific1 public vocational education programs, 1979-80 DOE instructional code Enrollments Title Continued Completions 16. 16.0103 16.0104 16.0106 16.0107 16.0108 16.0110 16.0111 16.0113 16.0117 16.0601 16.0602 16.0605 16.9902 16.9900 Technical, t o t a l .............................................................................................................................. Architectural technology........................................................................................................ Automotive tech n o lo g y........................................................................................................ Civil technology........................................................................................................................ Electrical technology............................................................................................................... Electronic tech n o lo g y........................................................................................................... Environmental control technology..................................................................................... Industrial technology.............................................................................................................. Mechanical technology........................................................................................................... Scientific data technology..................................................................................................... Commercial pilot tra in in g ..................................................................................................... Fire and safety technology..................................................................................................... Police science........................................................................................................................... Water and wastewater technology........................................................................................ Other technical education..................................................................................................... 387,117 27,441 11,952 16,605 14,719 87,695 8,064 14,561 25,419 18,575 7,198 13,654 55,843 2,989 82,402 82,573 5,185 3,570 2,661 2,120 17,447 1,170 2,237 4,590 3,437 1,856 4,520 15,707 683 17,390 17. 17.0100 17.0200 17.0301 17.0302 17.0399 17.0400 17.0700 17.0900 17.1001 17.1002 17.1004 17,1007 17.1099 17.1100 17.1200 17.1300 17.1400 17.1500 17.1700 17.1900 17.2100 17.2200 17.2302 17.2303 17.2305 17.2306 17.2307 17.2399 17.2400 17.2602 17.2699 17.2700 17.2801 17.2802 17.2899 17.2900 17.3000 17.3100 17.3200 17.3300 17.3500 17.3600 17.9900 Trade and industrial, t o ta l........................................................................................................... Air-conditioning........................................................................................................................ Appliance repair........................................................................................................................ Body and fender repair........................................................................................................... Auto m e c h a n ic ........................................................................................................................ Automotive specialization..................................................................................................... Aviation occupations.............................................................................................................. Commercial art occupations.................................................................................................. Commercial photographic occupations............................................................................... Carpentry, construction........................................................................................................ Electricity, construction........................................................................................................ M as o n ry .................................................................................................................................... Plumbing and pipefitting........................................................................................................ Other construction and maintenance trades..................................................................... Custodial services.................................................................................................................... Diesel mechanic........................................................................................................................ Drafting occupations.............................................................................................................. Electrical occupations........................................................................................................... Electronic occupations........................................................................................................... Supervisor and management developm ent........................................................................ Graphic arts occupations........................................................................................................ Instrument maintenance and repair occupations............................................................ Maritime occupations.............................................................................................................. Machine shop occupations..................................................................................................... Machine tool operations........................................................................................................ Sheet m e t a l.............................................................................................................................. Welding and cutting.................................................................................................................. Tool and die m a k in g .............................................................................................................. Other metalworking occupations........................................................................................ Metallurgy occupations........................................................................................................... Cosmetology.............................................................................................................................. Other personal s e rv ic e s ........................................................................................................ Plastics occupations.................................................................................................................. Firefighter tra in in g .................................................................................................................. Law enforcement tra in in g ..................................................................................................... Other public services.............................................................................................................. Quantity food occupations.................................................................................................. R e frig e ra tio n ........................................................................................................................... Small engine re p a ir................................................................................................................. Stationary energy sources occupations............................................................................... Textile production and fabrication..................................................................................... Upholstering.............................................................................................................................. Woodworking occupations..................................................................................................... Other trade and industrial occupations............................................................................... 2 Other programs, greater than 1 percent of total ............................................................ Other programs, less than 1 percent of total3 .................................................................. 1,792,052 48,799 11,130 66,074 237,557 20,294 24,425 50,025 24,184 106,551 28,625 27,593 16,304 69,901 9,545 24,518 103,560 49,690 93,835 21,036 69,210 3,541 6,402 74,435 8,617 11,903 125,675 4,299 29,621 607 77,673 9,249 2,498 25,495 57,914 24,462 34,979 3,742 21,434 2,213 18,579 8,400 28,091 109,367 562,952 12,508 3,167 20,152 80,266 8,560 5,791 10,262 6,612 34,325 8,755 8,984 4,978 24,744 3,029 6,927 30,370 9,519 28,096 6,078 23,592 778 1,132 21,570 2,610 3,454 37,279 1,067 12,514 240 25,427 3,601 1,057 13,800 15,588 4,899 11,092 1,155 7,490 740 5,845 2,560 9,821 42,518 85,486 60,904 25,301 15,521 ’ Occupationally specific enrollments include students above grade 10 enrolled in programs which are designed to train individuals for specific occupations. Excluded are all programs in industrial arts and consumer and homemaking training, as well as prevocational, counsel ing and guidance, and cluster programs (those programs that include 4 or more subjects that cannot be separated and identified as a complete program). 105 2 Includes those programs that are more than 1 percent of a program area (e.g., Agriculture) that are not listed separately. 3 Includes those programs that are less than 1 percent of a program area that are not listed separately. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educa tion Statistics. Table D-2. Total enrollments, total completions, total who left with or without a marketable skill, and total still enrolled, by individual programs for private noncollegiate postsecondary schools with occupational programs: 1979-80' DOE instructional code and title Total enrollments Completions Left with marketable skill Left without marketable skill Still enrolled Total, all programs .................................................................. 944,145 579,748 40,699 131,842 191,793 01. Agribusiness, total ............................................................... 3,929 3,436 80 242 170 01.0100 01.0200 01.0299 01.0300 01.0400 01.0500 01.0600 01.0700 01.9900 Agricultural production................................................. Agricultural supplies/services...................................... Veterinarian assistant.................................................. Agricultural mechanics ................................................ Agricultural products.................................................... Ornamental horticulture............................................... Agricultural resources.................................................. Forestry ........................................................................ O ther............................................................................. 235 0 1,070 0 0 2,624 0 0 0 235 0 803 0 0 2,398 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 174 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 127 0 0 0 04. Marketing and distribution, total .......................................... 230,281 198,379 1,569 20,744 9,589 04.0100 04.0200 04.0300 04.0400 04.0500 04.0600 04.0700 04.0800 04.0900 04.1000 Advertising services..................................................... Apparel and accessories ............................................ Automotive sales.......................................................... Finance and credit....................................................... Floristry......................................................................... Food distribution........................................................... Food service technology............................................. General merchandise .................................................. Hardware, building materials ...................................... Home furnishings management .................................. 0 11,633 35 29,296 0 781 80 443 0 0 0 6,563 35 26,505 0 577 40 62 0 0 0 268 0 19 0 127 5 15 0 0 0 1,878 0 2,697 0 77 3 133 0 0 0 2,925 0 75 0 0 32 232 0 0 04.1100 04.1200 04.1300 04.1400 04.1500 04.1600 04.1700 04.1800 04.1900 04.2000 04.3100 04.9900 Hotel and lodging......................................................... Industrial marketing...................................................... Insurance...................................................................... International trad e ........................................................ Personal service sales ................................................ Petroleum sales............................................................ Real estate .................................................................. Recreation and tourism............................................... Transportation services............................................... Retail trade, o th e r........................................................ Wholesale trade, o ther................................................ O ther............................................................................. 420 0 13,386 0 588 0 145,788 15,256 455 1,463 0 10,658 336 0 11,714 0 573 0 129,954 12,769 121 621 0 8,509 49 0 0 0 14 0 176 292 15 153 0 435 0 0 0 0 1 0 12,867 1,396 6 110 0 1,576 35 0 1,672 0 0 0 2,789 789 312 579 0 139 07. Health occupations, to ta l..................................................... 87,099 45,130 2,856 10,132 28,987 07.0101 07.0102 07.0103 07.0199 07.0201 07.0202 07.0203 07.0204 07.0299 07.0301 Dental assistant............................................................ Dental hygiene (associate) .......................................... Dental laboratory technology ...................................... Other dental................................................................. Cytology........................................................................ Histology....................................................................... Medical laboratory assisting ........................................ Hematology.................................................................. Medical laboratory technology, o th e r......................... Nursing (associate degree)......................................... 6,128 0 2,687 117 0 4 766 329 3,143 1,863 4,420 0 1,601 65 0 2 581 172 1,890 969 165 0 140 3 0 0 16 11 26 61 660 0 310 14 0 0 124 38 585 217 883 0 637 35 0 1 45 108 644 616 07.0302 07.0303 07.0304 07.0305 07.0399 07.0401 07.0402 07.0499 07.0501 07.0502 Practical (vocational) nursing ...................................... Nursing assistant (aide)............................................... Psychiatric aide ............................................................ Surgical technician....................................................... Nursing, o th er............................................................... Occupational therapy................................................... Physical therapy........................................................... Rehabilitation services, o th e r...................................... X-ray technician............................................................ Radiation therapy......................................................... 5,848 6,458 86 381 26,534 0 0 0 5,844 249 3,674 4,733 63 163 7,242 0 0 0 1,771 208 814 148 16 28 130 0 0 0 0 10 388 1,214 8 35 2,842 0 0 0 471 10 973 364 0 153 16,320 0 0 0 3,603 21 07.0503 07.0599 07.0600 07.0700 07.0800 07.0901 07.0902 07.0903 07.0904 07.0906 07.0907 Nuclear medical technology ........................................ Radiologic, o th e r.......................................................... Optical technology....................................................... Environmental health technology................................ Mental health technology............................................ Electroencephalograph technology ............................ Electrocardiograph technology.................................... Respiratory therapy technology .................................. Medical assisting (office) ............................................. Community health aide................................................ Medical emergency technician.................................... 41 351 0 0 0 402 1,110 1,421 19,416 0 249 21 299 0 0 0 363 852 682 12,775 0 65 1 42 0 0 0 0 0 11 1,128 0 21 5 11 0 0 ‘ 0 39 259 183 2,260 0 78 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 546 3,256 0 84 See footnotes at end of table. 106 Table D-2. Total enrollments, total completions, total who left with or without a marketable skill, and total still enrolled, by individual programs for private noncollegiate postsecondary schools with occupational programs: 1979-80'—Continued DOE instructional code and title Total enrollments Completions Left with marketable skill Left without marketable skill Still enrolled Mortuary science.......................................................... Medical records technician.......................................... Physician’s assistant................................................... Health occupations, o ther............................................ 2,185 402 162 925 1,709 354 83 374 0 0 5 80 113 46 19 203 362 2 54 268 09. Home economics, to ta l........................................................ 0 0 0 0 0 Child ca re ..................................................................... Clothing management, production, and services........ Food management, production, and services............. Home furnishings ......................................................... Institutional/home management ................................. Home economics, oth er............................................... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14. Business and office, to ta l.................................................... 198,195 98,021 18,121 32,218 49,826 Accounting .................................................................... Computer operator....................................................... Keypunch operator ...................................................... Computer programmer ................................................. Systems analyst........................................................... Business data processing............................................ General o ffice ............................................................... Information, communication occupations .................... Materials support occupations .................................... Personnel occupations................................................. 20,783 1,692 19,913 27.452 0 1,063 2,970 4,300 0 0 10,858 1,203 11,965 11,569 0 398 1,621 2,333 0 0 1,798 35 570 1,292 0 44 204 455 0 0 3,583 228 3,576 6,100 0 228 395 743 0 0 4,543 225 3,803 8,489 0 392 749 768 0 0 14.0700 Stenographic, secretarial, and related occupations .... 14.0800 Supervisory and administrative management occupations.................................................................. 14.0900 Typing and related occupations.................................. 14.9900 Office occupations, other............................................. 94,244 43,991 11,226 13,419 25,607 13,673 11,220 885 6,599 6,951 533 1,396 1,101 0 1,607 2,248 91 4,069 921 261 16. Technical occupations, total ............................................... 44,378 22,180 2,208 7,006 12,980 16.0101 16.0102 16.0103 16.0104 16.0105 16.0106 16.0107 16.0108 16.0109 16.0110 Aeronautical technology.............................................. Agricultural technology................................................ Architectural technology.............................................. Automotive technology................................................ Chemical technology................................................... Civil technology ............................................................ Electrical technology ................................................... Electronic technology.................................................. Electromechanical technology .................................... Environmental control technology .............................. 2,395 0 412 1,318 0 226 2,377 18,637 124 201 767 0 167 658 0 142 667 7,533 45 73 67 0 0 248 0 20 116 993 1 0 492 0 91 412 0 16 281 3,185 21 30 1,069 0 155 0 0 47 1,312 6,926 57 96 16.0111 16.0112 16.0113 16.0114 16.0115 16.0116 16.0117 16.0203 16.0601 16.0602 Industrial technology.................................. .................. Instrumentation technology.......................................... Mechanical technology................................................ Metallurgical technology.............................................. Nuclear technology...................................................... Petroleum technology.................................................. Scientific data processing............................................ Legal assistant ............................................................. Commercial pilot training ............................................. Fire and fire safety technology ................................... 135 287 1,256 0 0 0 1,507 788 0 0 50 236 921 0 0 0 488 706 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 43 12 0 0 5 22 139 0 0 0 191 42 0 0 81 0 196 0 0 0 786 27 0 0 16.0603 16.0604 16.0605 16.0606 16.0607 16.0608 16.0695 16.0699 16.9901 16.9902 Forestry technology..................................................... Oceanographic technology.......................................... Police science technology........................................... Teacher’s assistant..................................................... Library assistant........................................................... Broadcast technician ................................................... Performing artists......................................................... Technology, o th e r........................................................ Air pollution technology............................................... Water and waste water treatment technology........... 0 0 0 0 0 9,924 4,369 163 0 259 0 0 0 0 0 6,736 2,705 163 0 121 0 0 0 0 0 583 85 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 1,716 321 0 0 42 0 0 0 0 0 890 1,259 0 0 80 17. Trade and industrial, total .................................................. 334,828 184,749 13,906 55,155 81,011 8,684 27 2,333 13,863 472 4,918 16 1,407 6,444 446 610 0 148 1,779 21 1,936 3 424 2,136 5 1,220 8 352 3,506 2 07.0909 07.0915 07.0920 07.9900 09.0201 09.0202 09.0203 09.0204 09.0205 09.0299 14.0100 14.0201 14.0202 14.0203 14.0204 14.0299 14.0300 14.0400 14.0500 14.0600 17.0100 17.0200 17.0301 17.0302 17.0303 Air conditioning installation and repair....................... Appliance repair........................................................... Body and fender repair............................................... Auto mechanic ............................................................. Auto specialization, repair............................................ See footnotes at end of table. 107 Table D-2. Total enrollments, total completions, total who left with or without a marketable skill, and total still enrolled, by individual programs for private noncollegiate postsecondary schools with occupational programs: 1979-80'—Continued DOE instructional code and title Total enrollments Completions Left with marketable skill Left without marketable skill Still enrolled 17.0399 17.0401 17.0402 17.0403 17.0500 Automotive services, other ......................................... Aircraft maintenance.................................................... Aircraft operations........................................................ Ground operations....................................................... Blueprint reading.......................................................... 424 0 0 0 0 285 0 0 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 85 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 17.0600 17.0700 17.0800 17.0900 17.1001 17.1002 17.1003 17.1004 17.1005 17.1006 Business machine maintenance ................................. Commercial art occupations........................................ Commercial fishery occupations................................. Commercial photography occupations....................... Carpentry, construction ............................................... Electricity, construction ............................................... Heavy equipment maintenance operations................ Masonry........................................................................ Painting and decorating .............................................. Plastering ..................................................................... 519 23,752 0 7,840 629 0 3,138 407 92 0 520 5,188 0 1,234 417 0 2,075 257 54 0 0 777 0 339 26 0 18 34 5 0 0 6,197 0 2,093 104 0 225 44 14 0 0 11,590 0 4,174 82 0 821 69 19 0 17.1007 17.1008 17.1009 17.1010 17.1099 17.1100 17.1200 17.1300 17.1400 17.1503 Plumbing and pipefitting.............................................. Drywall installation ....................................................... Glazing.......................................................................... Roofing ......................................................................... Construction and maintenance trades, other............. Custodial services........................................................ Diesel mechanic........................................................... Drafting occupations.................................................... Electrical occupations, o th e r....................................... Radio and TV repair.................................................... 171 0 0 0 1,767 29 4,471 9,274 2,930 2,271 101 0 0 0 1,351 24 2,459 3,524 1,308 1,305 21 0 0 0 36 2 217 796 280 125 9 0 0 0 261 0 664 1,610 234 477 35 0 0 0 118 2 1,130 3,341 1,099 366 17.1599 17.1600 17.1700 17.1900 17.2000 17.2100 17.2200 17.2302 17.2303 17.2306 Electronics occupations, o th er.................................... Fabric maintenance services....................................... Supervisor and management development................ Graphic arts occupations............................................ Industrial atomic energy occupations......................... Instrument maintenance and repair occupations....... Maritime occupations................................................... Machine shop occupations.......................................... Machine tool operations.............................................. Welding and cutting..................................................... 23,417 476 1,239 2,876 0 2,497 6,649 265 1,451 19,119 12,517 476 724 1,462 0 1,101 6,305 115 1,332 11,910 1,393 0 69 261 0 181 44 71 0 2,487 3,801 0 186 659 0 205 199 74 12 2,466 5,705 0 260 495 0 1,009 100 5 108 2,254 17.2307 17.2399 17.2400 17.2601 17.2602 17.2699 17.2700 17.2801 17.2802 17.2899 Tool and diemaking ..................................................... Metalworking, other ..................................................... Metallurgy occupations................................................ Barbering...................................................................... Cosmetology................................................................ Personal services, other ............................................. Plastics occupations.................................................... Firefighter training ........................................................ Law enforcement training ........................................... Public service occupations, o th er............................... 316 345 111 9,337 126,590 4,358 24 0 1,487 0 54 342 64 6,586 66,518 3,475 24 0 1,467 0 95 2 6 30 2,724 193 0 0 19 0 60 1 17 1,199 23,812 431 0 0 0 0 107 0 23 1,521 33,535 259 0 0 0 0 17.2900 17.3000 17.3100 17.3200 17.3300 17.3400 17.3500 17.3600 17.4000 17.5000 17.9900 Quantity food occupations........................................... Refrigeration engineering............................................ Small engine repair, internal combustion ................... Stationary energy sources........................................... Textile production and fabrication .............................. Leatherworking ............................................................. Upholstering................................................................. Woodworking occupations........................................... Truckdriving.................................................................. Dog grooming.............................................................. Trade and industrial occupations, other ..................... Not reported .............. .................................................. 16,061 383 2,067 217 1,873 0 479 5 26,326 2,848 932 45,436 13,826 216 1,523 127 1,097 0 348 5 17,271 2,345 183 27,903 680 18 117 12 40 0 6 0 162 14 0 1,959 1,162 45 176 32 241 0 110 0 3,452 263 31 6,345 393 103 249 45 496 0 15 0 5,441 226 716 9,230 1 Table does not include collegiate, flight, and other schools. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educa tion Statistics. 108 Table D-3. Apprenticeship registration actions, calendar year 1979 Beginning of period 1-1-79 Trade During period Added Cancelled1 Completed End of period 12-31-79 U.S. to ta ls ..................................................................................................... 289,168 136,786 58,634 43,454 323,866 Technologists and technicians, except health: Drafters, designers..................................................................................... 841 317 230 124 804 2,259 2,352 1,007 1,168 499 625 694 194 2,073 2,701 1,403 1,066 604 491 1,374 Mechanics and repairers: Air-conditioning and refrigeration mechanics...................................... Aircraft mechanics..................................................................................... Auto and related body repairers............................................................... Auto and related mechanics..................................................................... Car repairers.................................................................................................. Electronic technicians............................................................................... Industrial technicians.................................................................................. Maintenance m echanics............................................................................ Millwrights..................................................................................................... Office machine servicers........................................................................... Radio, T V repairers..................................................................................... Not classified above..................................................................................... 2,041 660 3,207 9,909 3,149 1,610 1,310 4,853 5,636 1,084 718 4,344 855 134 1,260 4,786 1,259 622 488 1,946 2,241 233 176 2,058 399 32 739 2,524 708 146 222 744 679 241 190 771 294 26 346 1,466 680 310 178 913 1,038 146 130 757 2,203 736 3,382 10,705 3,020 1,776 1,398 5,142 6,160 930 574 4,874 Construction occupations: Bricklayers, stone and tile setters............................................................ Carpenters ..................................................................................................... Cement masons........................................................................................... Electrical workers........................................................................................ Electricians.................................................................................................. Floor coverers............................................................................................... Glaziers........................................................................................................... Insulation w o rk e rs ..................................................................................... Lathers........................................................................................................... Line erectors, light and power.................................................................. Ornamental ironworkers............................................................................ Painters........................................................................................................... Pipefitters, sprinkler fitters, steamfitters............................................... Plasterers........................................................................................................ Plumbers........................................................................................................ Roofers........................................................................................................... Sheet-metal w o rk e rs .................................................................................. Structural steel w o rk e rs ............................................................................ Tapers, dry-wall applicators..................................................................... Not classified above..................................................................................... 8,488 43,212 3,092 920 35,118 1,697 1,143 1,683 1,357 4,651 166 6,732 15,859 1,229 17,607 5,670 11,265 8,066 1,910 1,394 3,884 23,672 1,792 424 13,833 955 688 504 804 2,173 48 3,941 5,755 827 5,965 4,335 4,773 5,145 1,136 639 1,992 13,397 824 228 4,843 523 323 194 400 754 14 1,991 1,662 347 2,482 2,410 1,771 1,370 803 477 1,068 4,637 466 170 4,961 228 189 235 155 816 15 956 3,089 121 2,322 539 1,591 1,568 412 283 9,312 48,850 3,594 946 39,147 1,901 1,319 1,758 1,606 5,254 185 7,726 16,863 1,588 18,768 7,056 12,676 10,273 1,831 1,273 Production occupations: Precision production occupations: Boilermakers................................................................................................. Bookbinders, bindery workers.................................................................. Cabinetmakers, wood machinists............................................................ Compositors.................................................................................................. Lithographers, photoengravers............................................................... Machinists..................................................................................................... Medical and dental technicians............................................................... Molders, corem akers.................................................................................. Optical w orkers........................................................................................... Patternmakers.............................................................................................. Printing and publishing workers............................................................... Toolmakers, diemakers............................................................................... 3,931 631 1,968 385 2,173 15,528 3,457 646 389 852 875 12,730 1,381 273 1,039 100 724 6,397 2,882 257 109 383 396 5,379 417 108 629 94 653 2,748 529 139 119 74 111 2,044 769 90 242 70 369 2,450 226 97 49 143 80 1,807 4,126 706 2,136 321 1,875 16,727 5,584 667 330 1,018 1,080 14,258 Plant and system operators: Stationary engineers.................................................................................. 1,899 713 212 448 1,952 Machine operators, tenders, and setup workers: Machine set-up and operators.................................................................. Press o p e ra to rs ........................................................................................... 1,437 1,134 699 258 353 189 205 187 1,578 1,016 Transportation and material moving occupations: Operating engineers (construction machinery operators)................... 5,496 2,775 875 857 6,539 Miscellaneous trades, not classified a b o v e ......................................................... 19,002 12,112 3,182 3,757 24,175 Service occupations: Food and beverage preparation and service occupations: Butchers, m e a tc u tte rs ............................................................................... Cooks, bakers.............................................................................................. Personal service occupations: Barbers, beauticians..................................................................................... 11ncludes voluntary quits, layoffs, discharges, out-of-State transfers, upgrades within certain trades, and suspensions or interruptions for m ilitary service. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training, 109 •4. Enlisted strength in Department of Defense (DOD) occupational groups, September 30,1980 Group title and description of coverage Enlisted strength 242,389 0 IN F A N T R Y , GUN CREWS, A ND SEAMANSHIP S P E C IA L IS T S .................................................................................................. 01 In fa n tr y — includes weapon specialists, ground reconnaissance specialists and crew-served artillery specialists, armor and amphibious crews, and specialists in combat engineering and seamanship...................................................... 103,703 02 A r m o r a n d A m p h i b i o u s ................................................................................................................................................................. 24,554 03 C o m b a t E n g in ee rin g — includes specialists in hasty and temporary construction of airfields, roads, and bridges 04 A r t ille r y /G u n n e ry , R o c k e ts , a n d Missiles — includes conventional field, anti-air and shipboard guns and artillery, 05 A i r C re w — includes pilots and navigators, flight engineers, and other air c re w ............................................................... 6,414 06 Seam anship — includes boatswains, navigators, and other seamanship specialists............................................................ 13,885 07 In s ta lla tio n S e c u rity — includes specialists who guard weapon systems, defend installations, and protect and in demolition, field illumination, and chemical warfare.................................................................................................. and rocket and missile specialists................................................................................................................................................. 20,937 50,858 personnel, equipment, and fa c ilitie s ........................................................................................................................................... 1 10 22,038 ELECTRO NIC EQ UIPM ENT R E P A IR E R S ........................................................................................................................................... 154,559 R ad io /R a d a r — includes fixed and mobile radio, air traffic and tracking radar, communication, navigation, and electronic countermeasure g e a r.................................................................................................................................................... 70,809 11 F ire C o n tro l E le c tro n ic S ystem (N o n -M is s ile ) ........................................................................................................................... 7,519 12 M issile G u id an ce, C o n tro l a n d C h e c k o u t — includes specialists in guidance, control, and checkout equipment for 13 S o n a r E q u ip m e n t — includes specialists in underwater detection and fire control systems, oceanographic guided and ballistic missiles........................................................................................................................................................... equipment, and related antisubmarine g e a r .............................................................................................................................. 22,533 7,813 14 N u c le a r W eapons E q u i p m e n t ................................................... .................................................................................................... 1,321 15 A D P C o m p u te rs ................................................................................................................................................................................. 7,569 16 T e le ty p e a n d C ry p to g ra p h ic E q u ip m e n t ..................................................................................................................................... 13,684 19 O th e r E le c tro n ic E q u ip m e n t — includes training devices, inertial navigation systems, and electronics instruments specialists.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 23,311 CO M M UNICA TIO NS A N D IN TELLIG EN C E S P EC IA LISTS........................................................................................................... 145,012 20 R a d io a n d R a d io C od e — includes operators of radio, radio teletype, and visual communications equipment. . . . 21 S o n a r ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4,257 22 R a d a r a n d A i r T r a ffic C o n tr o l ....................................................................................................................................................... 24,754 23 Sign al In te llig e n c e /E le c tro n ic W arfare — includes the intercept, translation, and analysis of foreign communications, and the operation of electronic countermeasures equipm ent............................................................... 21,548 24 In te llig e n c e — includes the gathering, receipt, and analysis of nonsignal intelligence data, the interrogation of prisoners, other language translators and interpreters, image interpretation, and specialists in counterintelligence and investigational activities.......................................................................................................................................................... 25 8,830 C o m b a t O p e ra tio n s C o n tr o l — includes specialists in forward area tactical operations and intelligence and in command post control a c tiv itie s ................................................................................................................................................. 26 41,695 21,444 C o m m u n ic a tio n s C e n te r O p e ra tio n s — includes the receipt and distribution of messages, the operation of communications center equipment, and the operation of major field communications systems................................... 22,484 3 M E D IC A L A N D D E N TA L SPECIALISTS.............................................................................................................................................. 77,604 30 M e d ic a l C a r e ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 53,172 31 T e ch n ica l M e d ic a l Services — includes laboratory, pharmaceutical, and X-ray services................................................... 10,461 32 R e la te d M e d ic a l Services — includes specialists in sanitation, health preservation, and veterinary services and preventive medical services.............................................................................................................................................................. 4,931 33 D e n ta l C are — Includes specialists in dental care and treatment and in related technical and laboratory services . . 9,040 4 OTHER T E C H N IC A L A N D A L L IE D S P E C IA L IS T S ........................................................................................................................ 37,723 40 P h o to g ra p h y — includes still, motion, and television camera operators, precision photographic processing, editing, and broadcasting............................................................................................................................................................................. 6,081 41 M a p p in g , S u rvey in g , D ra ftin g , a n d I l l u s t r a t i n g ........................................................................................................................ 7,197 42 W e a th e r — includes specialists in the collection of weather and sea condition data and in weather forecasting . . . 5,283 43 O rd n a n c e D isp osal a n d D iv in g — includes the excavation and rendering safe of explosive ordnance and of chemical and nuclear agents, and underwater demolition and other types of d iv in g ...................................................... 1,507 45 M u s ic ia n s ................................................................................................................................. .........................................-.................. 4,609 49 T e c h n ic a l S pecialists, N .E .C . — includes physical science laboratory analysts, specialists in memorial activities, safety, NBC warfare, and firefighting and damage control, and other technical specialists and aids such as scientific engineering assistants..................................................................................................................................................... 13,046 110 Table D-4. Enlisted strength in Department of Defense (DOD) occupational groups, September 30,1980—Continued DOD code 5 Group title and description of coverage Enlisted strength FU N C TIO N A L SUPPORT A N D A D M IN IS T R A T IO N ........................................................................................................................ 269,849 50 P ersonnel — includes specialists in personnel administration, personnel and manpower management, and 51 A d m in is tr a tio n — includes clerks, typists, and stenographers and legal and medical administrative recruiting and counseling................................................................................................................................................................. specialists.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 45,361 72,645 52 C le ric a l/P e rs o n n e l — includes combined personnel and administrative specialists and senior enlisted personnel 53 D a ta Processing — includes computer operators, analysts, and programmers and electric accounting machine operators............................................................................................................................................................................................. 14,089 54 A c c o u n tin g , F in a n c e , a n d D is b u rs in g ........................................................................................................................................... 14,123 55 O th e r F u n c tio n a l S u p p o r t — includes specialists who provide support in the functional areas of supply whose primary responsibilities are non-technical..................................................................................................................... accounting and procurement, transportation, flight operations, and related a re a s ......................................................... 56 106,371 R elig iou s, M o ra le , a n d W e lfa re — includes chaplains' assistants and specialists in theater, arts, sports, and 57 6,379 In fo r m a tio n a n d E d u c a tio n — includes specialists in public affairs, radio/TV, and other types of information related activities................................................................................................................................................................................. 5,061 and education.................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 5,820 EL E C T R IC A L /M E C H A N IC A L EQ UIPM ENT R E P A IR E R S ............................................................................................................ 348,461 60 A ir c r a f t a n d R e la te d — includes aircraft engines, electrical systems, structural components and surfaces, and launch equipment.............................................................................................................................................................................. 153,476 61 A u to m o tiv e — includes construction equipment and other wheel and track vehicles...................................................... 59,694 62 W ire C o m m u n ic a tio n s — includes specialists in the installation and maintenance of telephones, switchboards, and central office and related interior communications equipment...................................................................................... 27,410 63 M issile, M e c h a n ic a l a n d E le c tric a l — includes missiles and missile systems and related c o m po nen ts......................... 4,812 64 A r m a m e n t a n d M u n itio n s — includes small arms, artillery, mines, bombs and associated mountings, nuclear weapons, and ammunition ren ovation ........................................................................................................................................ 34,187 65 S h ip b o a rd P ro p u ls io n — includes marine main engines, boilers, and auxiliary eq u ip m e n t............................................. 37,551 66 P o w e r G e n e ra tin g E q u ip m e n t — includes nuclear power reactors and primary electric generating p la n ts ................ 26,934 67 Precision E q u ip m e n t — includes optical and other precision instruments and office m achines................................... 2,687 69 O th e r M e c h a n ic a l a n d E le c tric a l E q u ip m e n t — includes specialists in the maintenance and repair of mechanical and electrical equipment which is not readily classifiable in another g r o u p ................................................ 7 70 1,710 C R A F T W O R K E R S .................................................................................................................................................................................... 70,636 M e ta lw o rk in g — includes specialists in the machining, shaping, and forming of metal and in the fabrication of metal p a rts .................................................................................................................................................................................... 13,260 C o n s tru c tio n — includes specialists in construction trades and construction equipment operation............................. 24,826 72 U tilitie s — includes plumbers, heating and cooling specialists, and electricians............................................................... 18,230 74 L i t h o g r a p h y ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 2,004 75 In d u s tria l Gas a n d F u e l P ro d u c tio n — includes specialists in the production of liquid oxygen, hydrogen, 76 F a b ric , L e a th e r, a n d R u b b e r ..................................................................................................................................... 2,660 79 O th e r C r a ft W orkers, N .E .C . — includes specialists in trades such as molding, camouflage, and plastic work, which are not readily classifiable elsewhere in this section..................................................................................................... 9,000 71 nitrogen, and carbon d io x id e ........................................................................................................................................................ 656 8 SERVICE A N D SUPPLY H A N D LER S..................................................................................................................................................... 156,228 80 F o o d S e rv ic e ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 46,442 81 M o to r T ra n s p o rt — includes the operation of wheel and track vehicles (except construction equipment) and 82 M a te r ia l R e c e ip t, S torage, a n d Issue — includes specialists in the receipt, storage, issue, and shipment of 83 L a w E n fo rc e m e n t — includes military police, protective and corrections specialists, and criminal and noncriminal inspectors and investigators..................................................................................................................................... 39,181 84 P ersonal S ervice — includes laundry, dry cleaning, and related services............................................................................... 1,918 86 F o r w a r d A re a E q u ip m e n t — includes specialists in parachute packing and repair, in aerial delivery operations, railway e q u ip m e n t.......................................................................................................................................................................... general and specialized classes of supplies, excluding a m m u n itio n ...................................................................................... and in flight equipment fitting and m aintenance..................................................................................................................... NOTE: Definitions are provided for most occupational groups. The lack of explanatory material for a few occupational groups indicates that the title of the grouping is considered a sufficient definition. 31,858 30,877 5,952 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Manpower Data Center—Enlisted Master File, Ill Table D-5. Associate degrees and other formal awards by length of curriculum and type of credit, 1979-80' Curriculums of at least 2 but less than 4 years Curriculum HEGIS code2 Work wholly or chiefly creditable toward a bachelor’s degree Work not wholly or chiefly creditable toward a bachelor's degree Curriculums of at least 1 but less than 2 years All curriculums, to ta l........................................................................... - 291,919 143,208 77,814 Arts and science or general programs................................................ - 148,197 6,577 3,060 Occupational curriculums, to ta l............................................................. - 143,722 136,631 74,754 Business and commerce technologies ..................................................... Business and commerce technologies, general .................................... Accounting technologies ......................................................................... Banking and finance technologies.......................................................... Marketing distribution, purchasing, business and industrial management......................................................................................... Secretarial technologies (includes office machine training) .................. Personal service technologies (flight attendant, cosmetologist, etc.) .... Photography technologies....................................................................... Communications and broadcasting technologies (radio/television, newspapers) ......................................................................................... Printing and lithography technologies..................................................... 5000 5001 5002 5003 57,819 12,192 7,558 450 46,514 8,993 6,074 645 21,928 2,371 2,080 149 5004 5005 5006 5007 15,360 12,653 189 418 12,349 10,801 777 462 1,927 9,837 2,686 134 5008 5009 1,299 385 718 362 133 238 Hotel and restaurant management technologies................................... Transportation and public utilities technologies..................................... Applied arts, graphic arts, and fine arts technologies (includes advertising design)................................................................................ O ther........................................................................................................ 5010 5011 1,081 463 1,152 438 188 530 5012 5099 4,437 1,334 2,793 950 1,279 376 Data processing technologies................................................................... Data processing technologies, general.................................................. Keypunch operator and other input preparation technologies.............. Computer programmer technologies ...................................................... Computer operator and peripheral equipment operation technologies . Data processing equipment maintenance technologies ........................ O ther........................................................................................................ 5100 5101 5102 5103 5104 5105 5199 6,175 3,729 94 1,687 294 312 59 6,385 2,760 102 3,033 221 193 76 2,587 644 692 544 645 56 6 Health services and paramedical technologies ........................................ Health services assistant ........................................................................ Dental assistant technologies................................................................. Dental hygiene technologies................................................................... Dental laboratory technologies............................................................... Medical or biological laboratory assistant technologies......................... Animal laboratory assistant technologies............................................... Radiologic technologies (X-ray, etc.) ..................................................... Nursing, R.N. (less than 4-year program).............................................. Nursing, practical (L.P.N. or L.V.N.-less than 4-year program)............. 5200 5201 5202 5203 5204 5205 5206 5207 5208 5209 34,198 918 656 2,183 298 1,830 499 1,795 19,211 1,216 32,109 1,117 590 1,781 554 1,618 591 1,803 16,323 1,667 20,172 1,585 2,071 90 59 235 41 84 160 10,946 Occupational therapy technologies......................................................... Surgical technologies.............................................................................. Optical technologies (includes ocular care, ophthalmic, optometric technologies) ........................................................................................ Medical record technologies................................................................... Medical assistant and medical office assistant technologies ............... Inhalation therapy technologies ............................................................. Psychiatric technologies (includes mental health aide programs)......... Electrodiagnostic technologies (includes EKG.EEG, etc.)..................... Institutional management technologies (rest home, etc.)...................... Physical therapy technologies................................................................ O ther........................................................................................................ 5210 5211 451 101 363 156 52 871 5212 5213 5214 5215 5216 5217 5218 5219 5299 363 451 1,017 1,153 885 36 86 380 669 350 492 1,125 1,218 925 87 155 635 559 70 188 2,192 830 239 32 37 18 372 Mechanical and engineering technologies ............................................... Mechanical and engineering technologies, general .............................. Aeronautical and aviation technologies.................................................. Engineering graphics (tool and machine drafting and design).............. Architectural drafting technologies.......................................................... Chemical technologies (includes plastics)............................................. Automotive technologies......................................................................... Diesel technologies................................................................................. Welding technologies.............................................................................. Civil technologies (surveying, photogrammetry, e tc.)............................ 5300 5301 5302 5303 5304 5305 5306 5307 5308 5309 21,548 2,452 2,346 1,026 1,128 442 1,151 308 306 989 29,692 2,470 1,396 1,579 1,672 259 3,270 1,288 836 1,047 21,264 816 703 1,019 430 80 3,865 968 2,669 132 Electronics and machine technologies (television, appliance, office machine repair, e tc.)............................................................................. Electromechanical technologies.............................................................. Industrial technologies............................................................................. 5310 5311 5312 4,901 882 810 7,752 937 1,275 2,147 325 1,341 See footnotes at end of table. 112 Table D-5. Associate degrees and other formal awards by length of curriculum and type of credit, 1979-801—Continued Curriculums of at least 2 but less than 4 years Curriculum HEGIS code2 Work wholly or chiefly creditable toward a bachelor’s degree Work not wholly or chiefly creditable toward a bachelor’s degree Curriculums of at least 1 but less than 2 years Textile technologies................................................................................ Instrumentation technologies.................................................................. Mechanical technologies......................................................................... Nuclear technologies............................................................................... Construction and building technologies (carpentry, electric work, plumbing, sheet-metal, air conditioning, heating, etc.)........................ O ther........................................................................................................ 5313 5314 5315 5316 87 214 1,308 24 209 423 1,210 112 75 166 1,029 25 5317 5399 2,225 949 3,164 793 4,837 637 Natural science technologies .................................................................... Natural science technologies, general ................................................... Agriculture technologies (includes horticulture)...................................... Forestry and w ildlife technologies (includes fisheries)................... Food services technologies.................................................................... Home economics technologies............................................................... Marine and oceanographic technologies............................................... Laboratory technologies, general............................................................ Sanitation and public health inspection technologies (environmental health technologies) ............................................................................. O ther........................................................................................................ 5400 5401 5402 5403 5404 5405 5406 5407 7,388 640 2,752 447 2,180 622 101 195 7,196 160 3,176 1,080 915 780 320 47 4,782 256 2,713 125 691 705 2 5408 5499 162 289 302 416 174 116 5500 5501 5502 16,594 1,330 1,479 14,735 945 225 4,021 390 127 5503 5504 5505 5506 5507 5508 5599 3,139 156 6,757 2,204 646 242 641 2,648 280 6,319 1,658 1,410 447 803 837 101 1,389 203 373 163 438 Public-service-related technologies....................................................... Public service technologies, general ...................................................... Bible study or religion-related occupations............................................. Education technologies (teacher aide and 2-year teacher training programs).............................................................................................. Library assistant technologies ................................................................ Police, law enforcement, correction technologies................................. Recreation and social work and related technologies.......................... Fire control technology............................................................................ Public administration and management technologies........................... O ther........................................................................................................ Survey. See a A T a x o n o m y o f In s tr u c tio n a l P ro g ra m s in H ig h e r E d u c a tio n (U.S. Department of Education, 1970). SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. ’ These data do not include associate degrees and other formal awards below the baccalaureate granted in specific arts and sciences curriculums. 2 HEGIS codes are from the Higher Education General Information 113 Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80 Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years Master's degrees All field s.................................................................................................. 929,417 298,081 A G R IC U L TU R E AND N A T U R A L R E S O U R C E S ............................................ Agriculture, general............................................................................................... A gronom y.............................................................................................................. Soils science........................................................................................................... Animal s c ie n c e ..................................................................................................... Dairy s c ie n c e ........................................................................................................ Poultry scien ce..................................................................................................... Fish, game, and wildlife management............................................................... H orticulture........................................................................................................... Ornamental horticulture..................................................................................... 22,802 2,243 1,786 731 3,684 251 111 1,314 1,747 633 3,976 328 441 152 472 68 49 324 254 17 991 26 174 56 136 25 12 72 80 3 Agriculture and farm managem ent................................................................... Agricultural economics........................................................................................ Agricultural business............................................................................................ Food science and technology............................................................................ F o re s try .................................................................................................................. Natural resources m anagem ent......................................................................... Agriculture and forestry technologies............................................................ Range management............................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 235 1,780 1,463 824 2,377 1,936 207 311 1,169 2 561 38 337 437 235 16 63 182 — 164 — 94 80 30 8 17 14 0203 0204 0205 0206 0299 A R C H ITEC TU R E A N D E N V IR O N M E N T A L D E S IG N ................................... Environmental design, general............................................................................ Architecture........................................................................................................... Interior design........................................................................................................ Landscape architecture........................................................................................ Urban arch itecture............................................................................................... City, community, and regional planning......................... ; ............................ O th e r........................................................................................................................ 9,132 943 5,465 902 1,006 3 395 418 3,139 135 1,425 83 216 131 1,054 95 79 2 24 — — 0300 0301 0302 0303 0304 0305 0306 0307 0308 0309 AREA S T U D IE S ........................................................................................................ Asian studies, general........................................................................................... East Asian studies.................................................................................................. South Asian (India, etc.) s tu d ie s ...................................................................... Southeast Asian s tu d ie s ..................................................................................... African s tu d ie s ..................................................................................................... Islamic studies........................................................................................................ Russian and Slavic studies.................................................................................. Latin American studies........................................................................................ Middle Eastern studies........................................................................................ 2,489 173 157 13 5 13 — 96 277 34 772 89 70 11 17 15 — 0310 0311 0312 0313 0314 0399 European studies, g e n e ra l.................................................................................. Eastern European s tu d ie s .................................................................................. W est European s t u d ie s ........................................................................................ American studies.................................................................................................. Pacific area studies............................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 45 3 15 1,288 — 370 14 1 3 199 0400 0401 0402 0403 0404 0405 0406 0407 0408 0409 BIO LO G IC A L SCIENCES ..................................................................................... Biology, general..................................................................................................... Botany, general..................................................................................................... Bacteriology........................................................................................................... Plant pathology..................................................................................................... Plant pharmacology............................................................................................... Plant p h y s io lo g y .................................................................................................. Zoology, g e n e ra l.................................................................................................. Pathology, human and anim al............................................................................ Pharmacology, human and a n im a l.................................................................. 46,370 33,523 724 284 70 — 26 3,653 40 0410 0411 0412 0413 0414 0415 0416 0417 0418 0419 Physiology, human and a n im a l......................................................................... M icro b io lo g y ........................................................................................................ Anatom y.................................................................................................................. Histology.................................................................................................................. B io ch em istry........................................................................................................ Biophysics.............................................................................................................. Molecular biology.................................................................................................. Cell b io lo g y ........................................................................................................... Marine b io lo g y ..................................................................................................... Biometrics and biostatistics............................................................................... 386 2,347 1 15 1,686 103 254 50 450 15 0420 0421 E c o lo g y .................................................................................................................. Entom ology........................................................................................................... 867 262 code 0100 0101 0102 0103 0104 0105 0106 0107 0108 0109 0110 0111 0112 0113 0114 0115 0116 0117 0199 0200 0201 0202 Major field of study 114 33 44 130 43 32,615 7 45 1 145 7 12 2 — 6 — — 3 10 132 — — — 78 — 27 6,510 2,911 300 51 171 3,636 718 161 28 104 4 — — 18 431 72 84 9 245 103 213 238 545 90 268 50 21 32 104 95 240 348 144 — 475 90 72 21 13 29 199 253 54 154 4 Table D-6. Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80—Continued HEGIS code Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years Major field of study 124 24 171 17 43 — 194 Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) 124 7 68 41 15 — 160 0422 0423 0424 0425 0426 0427 0499 G enetics................................................................................................................. R ad io b io lo g y........................................................................................................ Nutrition, scientific............................................................................................... Neurosciences........................................................................................................ Toxicology.............................................................................................................. Em bryology........................................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 0500 0501 0502 0503 0504 0505 0506 0507 0508 0509 BUSINESS A N D M A N A G E M E N T ......................................................................... Business and commerce, general......................................................................... A c c o u n tin g ........................................................................................................... Business statistics.................................................................................................. Banking and fin a n c e ........................................................................................... Investments and securities.................................................................................. Business management and adm inistration...................................................... Operations research............................................................................................... Hotel and restaurant m anagem ent.................................................................. Marketing and purchasing.................................................................................. 186,683 34,457 42,712 256 11,019 147 61,593 494 1,714 22,153 55,148 10,650 3,456 99 3,604 104 30,186 522 76 1,951 410 39 1 35 0510 0511 0512 0513 0514 0515 0516 0517 0599 Transportation and public u tilitie s .................................................................. Real estate.............................................................................................................. Insurance.................................................................................................................. International business........................................................................................ Secretarial studies.................................................................................................. Personnel management........................................................................................ Labor and industrial relations............................................................................ Business economics............................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 1,322 866 561 493 1,620 2,109 1,352 2,533 1,282 142 86 40 1,220 7 1,035 785 307 878 4 3 4 8 — 9 14 48 10 0600 0601 0602 0603 0604 0605 0699 C O M M U N IC A TIO N S .................................................................................................. Communications, g e n e ra l.................................................................................. Journalism............................................................................................................... Radio—television.................................................................................................. Advertising............................................................................................................... Communication m ed ia........................................................................................ O th e r........................................................................................................................ 28,616 11,588 8,457 4,482 1,940 1,689 460 3,082 1,558 866 242 118 171 127 193 139 30 10 — 11 3 0700 0701 0702 0703 0704 0705 0799 COMPUTER A N D IN F O R M A T IO N S C IE N C E S ............................................... Computer and information sciences, general................................................... Information sciences and systems..................................................................... Data processing..................................................................................................... Computer program m ing..................................................................................... Systems analysis................ ..................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 11,154 9,118 1,210 580 148 38 60 3,647 3,324 265 6 — 25 27 240 220 18 — — 1 1 0800 0801 0802 0803 0804 0805 0806 0807 0808 0809 E D U C A T IO N .............................................................................................................. Education, g e n e ra l............................................................................................... Elementary education, g e n e ra l......................................................................... Secondary education, g e n e ra l............................................................................ Junior high school e d u c a tio n ............................................................................ Higher education, g e n e ra l.................................................................................. Junior and community college e d u c a tio n ...................................................... Adult and continuing education......................................................................... Special education, general.................................................................................. Administration of special e d u c a tio n ............................................................... 118,102 3,816 42,042 3,305 338 3 2 49 8,897 8 103,453 13,296 15,891 5,492 93 469 255 948 8,979 34 7,940 1,321 214 196 — 421 168 140 260 15 0810 0811 0812 0813 0814 0815 0816 0817 0818 0819 Education of the mentally retarded.................................................................. Education of the gifted........................................................................................ Education of the d e a f ........................................................................................ Education of the culturally disadvantaged...................................................... Education of the visually handicapped............................................................ Speech correction.................................................................................................. Education of the emotionally disturbed......................................................... Remedial education.............................................................................................. Special learning disabilities.................................................................................. Education of the physically handicapped...................................................... 2,066 17 378 5 76 1,399 463 — 875 117 790 46 376 95 104 503 553 131 1,479 60 8 2 1 2 1 4 3 2 22 2 0820 0821 0822 0823 0824 0825 0826 0827 Education of the multiple handicapped......................................................... Social fo u n d a tio n s .............................................................................................. Educational psychology..................................................................................... Pre-elementary e d u c a tio n .................................................................................. Educational statistics and research.................................................................. Educational testing, evaluation, and measurement......................................... Student personnel.................................................................................................. Educational adm inistration............................................................................... 72 37 131 4,865 2 41 194 11 80 449 2,132 1,660 62 143 13,197 9,679 __ 209 627 45 52 24 649 1,468 115 73 2 116 64 36 — 1,290 Master's degrees 796 113 51 10 37 Table D-6. Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80—Continued HEGIS code Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years Major field of study Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) Master's degrees 0828 0829 Educational supervision..................................................................................... Curriculum and in s tru c tio n ............................................................................... 50 268 1,107 3,957 0830 0831 0832 0833 0834 0835 0836 0837 0838 0839 Reading e d u c a tio n .............................................................................................. Art education........................................................................................................ Music education..................................................................................................... Mathematics education........................................................................................ Science education.................................................................................................. Physical e d u c a tio n .............................................................................................. Driver and safety edu catio n ............................................................................... Health ed u c a tio n .................................................................................................. Business, commerce, and distributive education............................................ Industrial arts, vocational and technical education...................................... 335 2,606 6,220 762 672 20,316 132 2,377 3,875 6,539 6,299 780 1,149 512 591 4,126 231 1,033 1,307 2,484 124 41 105 38 73 262 4 60 61* 281 0899-1 0899-2 0899-3 0899-4 0899 Agricultural education........................................................................................ Education of exceptional children, not classified a b o v e ............................. Home economics education............................................................................... Nursing education.................................................................................................. O th e r........................................................................................................................ 1,058 115 2,078 221 1,269 287 49 481 50 2,014 29 — 10 — 181 0900 0901 0902 0903 9094 0905 0906 0907 0908 0909 E N G IN E E R IN G ........................................................................................................... Engineering, g e n e ra l........................................................................................... Aerospace, aeronautical, astronautical engineering...................................... Agricultural engineering..................................................................................... Architectural engineering.................................................................................. Bioengineering and biomedical engineering.................................................. Chemical engineering........................................................................................... Petroleum engineering........................................................................................ Civil, construction, and transportation engineering ................................... Electrical, electronics, communications engineering................................... 68,893 3,977 1,424 745 319 395 6,320 893 10,326 13,821 16,243 1,597 382 152 43 209 1,270 122 2,683 3,836 2,507 282 99 61 — 49 284 25 270 525 0910 0911 0912 0913 0914 0915 0916 0917 0918 0919 Mechanical engineering........................................................................................ Geological engineering........................................................................................ Geophysical engineering..................................................................................... Industrial and management engineering......................................................... Metallurgical engineering..................................................................................... Materials engineering........................................................................................... Ceramic engineering........................................................................................... Textile engineering................< ......................................................................... Mining and mineral engineering......................................................................... Engineering physics.............................................................................................. 11,808 222 56 3,175 585 429 253 55 682 254 2,060 36 16 1,313 211 319 36 8 87 52 281 2 4 116 82 120 18 — 7 18 0920 0921 0922 0923 0924 0925 0999 Nuclear engineering.............................................................................................. Engineering mechanics........................................................................................ Environmental and sanitary engineering......................................................... Naval architecture and marine engineering...................................................... Ocean engineering.................................................................................................. Engineering technologies.................................................................................. . O th e r........................................................................................................................ 495 157 285 552 167 10,491 1,007 365 134 472 64 102 339 335 101 63 39 7 8 5 41 1000 1001 1002 1003 1004 1005 1006 1007 1008 1009 FIN E A ND APPLIED A R T S .................................................................................. Fine arts, g en eral.................................................................................................. A r t ........................................................................................................................... Art history and appreciation............................................................................... Music (performing, composition, t h e o r y ) ...................................................... Music (liberal arts pro gram )............................................................................... Music history and appreciation......................................................................... Dramatic a r t s ........................................................................................................ Dance........................................................................................................................ Applied design........................................................................................................ 40,892 4,310 13,221 1,966 5,405 3,341 204 5,191 818 4,163 8,708 651 2,177 346 2,663 619 135 1,117 244 315 655 31 2 123 289 72 41 91 3 1 1010 1011 1099 Cinematography............. * .................................................................................... Photography........................................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 579 1,037 657 132 85 224 1 1 — 1100 1101 1102 1103 1104 1105 1106 1107 1108 1109 FOR EIG N L A N G U A G E S ........................................................................................ Foreign languages, general.................................................................................. French .................................................................................................................... German.................................................................................. i ............................... I t a l i a n ..................................................................................................................... Spanish..................................................................................................................... Russian..................................................................................................................... Chinese..................................................................................................................... Japanese ................................................................................................................. L a tin ........................................................................................................................ 11,133 689 3,285 1,466 272 4,331 402 79 108 95 2,236 394 513 309 49 685 60 33 14 14 549 130 128 94 9 103 6 7 4 2 116 1 64 751 Table D-6. Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80—Continued HEGIS code Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years Major field of study Master's degrees 9 38 2 — 4 51 8 53 Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) Greek, classical..................................................................................................... Hebrew..................................................................................................................... A r a b ic ..................................................................................................................... Indian (A s ia tic )..................................................................................................... Scandinavian languages........................................................................................ Slavic languages (other than Russian)............................................................... African languages (non-Semitic)......................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 77 78 13 — 40 53 — 145 1200 1201 1202 1203 1205 1207 1208 1209-2 1211-2 1212 HEA LTH PR O FES SIO N S........................................................................................ Health professions, general.................................................................................. Hospital and health care adm inistration......................................................... Nursing.................................................................................................................... Dental specialties................................................................................................. Medical specialties.............................................................................................. Occupational therapy........................................................................................... O ptom etry.............................................................................................................. P h a rm a c y .............................................................................................................. Physical therapy..................................................................................................... 63,920 5,219 1,692 32,441 75 — 1,666 392 6,974 2,338 15,704 788 1,683 4,616 382 69 205 9 380 282 786 61 13 118 10 38 — 2 89 2 1213 1214 1215 1216-2 1217 1219 1220 1221-2 1222 1223 Dental h y g ie n e ..................................................................................................... Public health........................................................................................................... Medical record librarianship............................................................................... Podiatry or podiatric m e d ic in e ........................................................................ Biomedical com m unication............................................................................... Veterinary medicine specialties........................................................................ Speech pathology and aud io lo g y..................................................................... Chiropractic........................................................................................................... Clinical social w o rk .............................................................................................. Medical laboratory technologies......................................................................... 1,238 586 657 — 33 3,576 105 313 5,092 30 2,574 — 2 5 148 3,290 — 636 231 — 182 — — — 67 110 — 15 1 1224 1225 1299 Dental technologies.............................................................................................. Radiologic technologies..................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 2 466 1,055 — 47 327 1300 1301 1302 1303 1304 1305 1306 1307 1399 HOME ECO NO M ICS.................................................................................................. Home economics, g en eral.................................................................................. Home decoration and home e q u ip m e n t......................................................... Clothing and te x tile s ........................................................................................... Consumer economics and home management............................................... Family relations and child developm ent......................................................... Foods and n u t r it io n ........................................................................................... Institutional management and cafeteria management................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 18,411 6,183 820 % 3,254 706 3,263 3,167 555 463 2,690 871 46 127 91 692 756 57 50 192 71 — 13 17 56 31 1 3 1400 1401-2 1499 L A W .............................................................................................................................. Law, general........................................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 683 621 62 1,817 1,083 734 40 37 3 1500 1501 1502 1503 1504 1505 1506 1507 1508 1509 1510 1599 LETTERS ..................................................................................................................... English, general..................................................................................................... Literature, E n g lis h .............................................................................................. Comparative lite ra tu re ........................................................................................ Classics..................................................................................................................... Linguistics.............................................................................................................. Speech, debate, and forensic science............................................................... Creative w ritin g ..................................................................................................... Teaching of English as a foreign language...................................................... Philosophy.............................................................................................................. Religious s tu d ie s .................................................................................................. O th e r........................................................................................................................ 40,633 23,501 2,107 354 404 552 5,630 272 67 3,695 3,374 677 8,509 4,187 415 163 97 521 1,060 260 498 509 695 104 1,875 845 140 98 44 162 171 4 1 246 128 36 1600 1601 1699 L IB R A R Y S C IE N C E .................................................................................................. Library science, g e n e ra l..................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 398 387 11 5,374 5,296 78 73 65 8 1700 1701 1702 1703 1799 M A T H E M A T IC S ........................................................................................................ Mathematics, general........................................................................................... Statistics, mathematical and th e o re tic a l......................................................... Applied mathematics........................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 11,378 10,492 247 396 243 2,860 2,087 495 179 99 724 552 115 41 16 1800 1801 M IL IT A R Y S C IE N C E S ........................................................................................... Military science ( A r m y ) ..................................................................................... 251 2 46 46 — 1110 1111 1112 1113 1114 1115 1116 1199 117 — 6 5 5 2 4 25 2 17 _ 6 72 _ Table D-6. Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80—Continued Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years HEGIS code Major field of study 1802 1803 1899-1 1899 Naval science (Navy, Marines)............................................................................ Aerospace science (Air Force)............................................................................ Merchant m a r in e ................................................................................................. O th e r........................................................................................................... ... 2 10 213 24 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 PHYSICAL SCIENCES.............................................................................................. Physical sciences, general..................................................................................... Physics, general..................................................................................................... Molecular physics................................................................................................. Nuclear physics..................................................................................................... Chemistry, g e n e ra l.............................................................................................. Inorganic chemistry.............................................................................................. Organic chemistry.................................................................................................. Physical c h e m is try .............................................................................................. Analytical chem istry........................................................................................... 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 Pharmaceutical c hem istry.................................................................................. Astronomy.............................................................................................................. Astrophysics........................................................................................................... Atmospheric sciences and m e te o ro lo g y ......................................................... G e o lo g y ................................................................................................................. Geochemistry........................................................................................................ Geophysics and seism ology............................................................................... Earth sciences, general........................................................................................ Paleontology........................................................................................................... Oceanography........................................................................................................ 1920 1999-1 1999-2 Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) Master's degrees _ _ — — — — — — 23,410 1,024 3,296 3 97 11,214 10 — 3 2 5,219 125 1,177 — 15 1,615 7 25 16 8 3,089 20 818 2 10 1,413 19 30 23 15 3 96 26 367 4,439 4 154 931 5 252 52 70 9 170 1,192 8 95 183 3 142 M etallurgy.............................................................................................................. Other earth sciences........................................................................................... Other physical sciences........................................................................................ 36 391 1,057 32 85 190 12 17 67 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2099 PSYCHOLOGY ........................................................................................................... Psychology, general.............................................................................................. Experimental psychology.................................................................................. Clinical psychology.............................................................................................. Psychology for counseling.................................................................................. Social psychology.................................................................................................. Psychometrics........................................................................................................ Statistics in p sych olo gy..................................................................................... Industrial psychology........................................................................................... Developmental p sych olo gy............................................................................... Physiological psychology..................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 41,962 40,254 31 3 149 298 _ _ 50 291 31 855 7,806 4,581 62 592 1,797 272 31 5 87 209 11 159 2,768 1,899 56 428 187 69 3 1 5 52 18 50 2100 2101 2102 2103 2104 2105 2106 2199 PUBLIC A F FA IR S A N D SERVICES...................................................................... Community services, general............................................................................... Public administration........................................................................................... Parks and recreation management..................................................................... Social work and helping services..................................................................... Law enforcement and corrections...................................................................... International public s ervice............................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 37,555 1,527 1,831 5,753 12,459 15,015 143 827 20,087 406 6,586 647 10,065 1,805 75 503 392 28 131 21 162 18 11 21 2200 2201 2202 2203 2204 2205 2206 2207 2208 2209 SOCIAL S C IE N C E S .................................................................................................. Social sciences, general........................................................................................ Anthropology........................................................................................................ Archaeology ........................................................................................................... Economics.............................................................................................................. H istory.................................................................................................................... Geography.............................................................................................................. Political science and governm ent..................................................................... S o c io lo g y .............................................................................................................. Crim inology........................................................................................................... 103,870 8,503 3,592 69 17,863 19,301 3,443 25,457 18,881 2,453 12,181 1,252 832 29 1,821 2,367 579 1,938 1,341 243 3,225 81 359 8 677 712 138 535 583 8 2210 2211 2212 2213 2214 2215 2299 International relation s........................................................................................ Afro-American (black culture) studies............................................................ American Indian cultural studies..................................................................... Mexican-American cultural studies ............................................................... Urban studies........................................................................................................ Demography........................................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 1,674 261 11 79 1,092 17 1,174 816 59 53 6 — — 21 671 24 188 — 22 9 34 T H E O L O G Y ................................................................................................................. Theological professions, general......................................................................... Religious m u s ic ..................................................................................................... 6,207 3,708 262 3,922 2,282 219 1,319 1,209 16 2300 2301-2 2302 118 1 i , 45 72 20 66 260 10 43 46 2 79 Table D-6. Bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred in institutions of higher education by field of study, 1979-80—Continued HEGIS code Bachelor's degrees requiring 4 or 5 years Major field of study Master's degrees Doctor's degrees (Ph.D., Ed.D., etc.) 2303 2304 2399 Biblical languages.................................................................................................. Religious education............................................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 37 1,886 314 50 1,202 169 4 44 46 4900 4901 4902 4903 4904 4999 IN T E R D IS C IP L IN A R Y S T U D IE S ......................................................................... General liberal arts and sciences......................................................................... Biological and physical sciences......................................................................... Humanities and social sciences......................................................................... Engineering and other disciplines...................................................................... O th e r........................................................................................................................ 34,473 20,069 3,105 3,127 466 7,706 4,952 1,373 318 1,273 935 1,053 401 106 30 86 17 162 NOTE: Dash indicates data are not available. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Educa tion Statistics. Table D-7. First professional degrees1conferred by institutions of higher education, 1979-80 First professional degrees Field of study Total, all institutions...................... 70,131 Chiropractic (D.C. or D .C .M .)................................ Dentistry (D.D.S. or D .M .D .) ................................ Medicine (M .D .)......................................................... Optometry (O .D .)...................................................... Osteopathic Medicine ( D . O . ) ................................ Pharmacy (D. P h a r .) ............................................... Podiatry (Pod. D. or D.P.) or Podiatric Medicine (D .P .M .)............................ Veterinary Medicine (D .V .M .)................................ Law (LL.B. or J.D .)................................................... Theology (B.D., M. Div., or R abb i)...................... O th e r........................................................................... 2,061 5,258 14,902 1,085 1,011 637 580 1,835 35,647 7,115 - includes degrees that require at least 6 years of college work for completion (including at least 2 years of preprofessional train ing). SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 119 Appendix E. State Employment Security Agencies State employment security agencies develop occupa tional projections and related employment statistics in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The following list shows where to write or call for this informa tion: Colorado Chief, Research and Development Colorado Division of Employment and Training 1278 Lincoln Street Denver, Colorado 80203 Phone: (303)866-6316 Alabama Chief, Research and Statistics Division Alabama Department of Industrial Relations Industrial Relations Building, Room 427 Montgomery, Alabama 36130 Phone: (205)832-5263 Connecticut Director, Research and Information Employment Security Division Connecticut Labor Department 200 Folly Brook Boulevard Hartford, Connecticut 06115 Phone: (203)566-2120 Alaska Chief, Research and Analysis Section Employment Security Division Alaska Department of Labor P.O. Box 3-7000 Juneau, Alaska 99802 Phone: (907)4654505 Delaware Arizona Research Chief, LMI Research & Analysis Section 733A Arizona Department of Economic Security P.O. Box 6123 Phoenix, Arizona 85005 Phone: (602)255-3616 Chief, Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation Delaware Department of Labor University Plaza Office Complex Building D Chapman Road— Route 273 Newark, Delaware 19713 Phone: (302)368-6962 District of Columbia Chief, Division of Labor Market Information, Research, and Analysis D.C. Department of Employment Services 500 C Street, N.W. Room 411 Washington, D.C. 20001 Phone: (202)724-2413 Florida Chief, Bureau of Research and Analysis Florida Department of Labor and Employment Security Caldwell Building Tallahassee, Florida 32301 Phone: (904)488-6037 Georgia Director, Labor Information Systems Georgia Department of Labor 254 Washington Street, S.W. Atlanta, Georgia 30334 Phone: (404)656-3177 Arkansas California Chief, Research and Analysis Section Employment Security Division Arkansas Department of Labor State Capitol Mall P.O. Box 2981 Little Rock, Arkansas 72203 Phone: (501)371-1541 Chief, Employment Data and Research Division Employment Development Department P.O. Box 1679 Sacramento, California 95808 Phone: (916)4454434 120 Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Research Director Research and Statistical Services Office Minnesota Department of Economic Security 390 North Robert Street, Room 517 St. Paul, Minnesota 55101 Phone: (612)296-6545 Chief, Research and Statistics Division Mississippi Employment Security Commission P.O. Box 1699 Jackson, Mississippi 39205 Phone: (601)961-7424 Missouri Chief, Research and Analysis Iowa Department of Job Service 1000 East Grand Avenue Des Moines, Iowa 50319 Phone: (515)281-8181 Director, Research and Statistics Division Michigan Employment Security Commission 7310 Woodward Avenue Detroit, Michigan 48202 Phone: (313)876-5445 Minnesota Chief of Research Indiana Employment Security Division 10 North Senate Avenue Indianapolis, Indiana 46204 Phone: (317)232-7702 Director of Job Market Research Massachusetts Division of Employment Security Charles F. Hurley Bldg.— Government Center Boston, Massachusetts 02114 Phone: (617)727-6556 Michigan Manager, Research and Analysis Division Illinois Bureau of Employment Security 910 South Michigan Street (15th Floor) Chicago, Illinois 60605 Phone: (312)793-2316 Director, Research and Analysis Division Maryland Department of Human Resources Employment Security Administration 1100 North Eutaw Street Baltimore, Maryland 21201 Phone: (301)383-5000 Massachusetts Chief, Research and Analysis Idaho Department of Employment P.O. Box 35 Boise, Idaho 83707 Phone: (208)384-2755 Director, Division of Research and Analysis Bureau of Employment Security Maine Department of Labor 20 Union Street Augusta, Maine 04330 Phone: (207)289-2271 Maryland Chief, Research and Statistics Department of Labor and Industrial Relations P.O. Box 3680 Honolulu, Hawaii 96811 Phone: (808)548-7639 Idaho Maine Mississippi Hawaii Chief, Research and Statistics Missouri Division of Employment Security Department of Labor and Industrial Relations P.O. Box 59 Jefferson City, Missouri 65101 Phone: (314)751-3215 Chief, Research and Analysis Division of Employment Kansas Department of Human Resources 401 Topeka Avenue Topeka, Kansas 66603 Phone: (913)296-5060 Chief, Research and Statistics Department of Human Resources 2nd Floor West 275 East Main Street Frankfort, Kentucky 40621 Phone: (502) 564-7976 Chief, Research and Statistics Section Louisiana State Department of Labor P.O. Box 44094—Capitol Station 1001 North 23rd Street Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70804 Phone: (504) 342-3141 121 Montana Chief, Research and Analysis Employment Security Division Department of Labor and Industry P.O.Box 1728 Helena, Montana 59601 Phone: (406)449-2430 North Carolina Director, Labor Market Information Division Employment Security Commission of North Carolina P.O. Box 25903 Raleigh, North Carolina 27611 Phone: (919)733-2936 Nebraska Chief, Research and Statistics Division of Employment Nebraska Department of Labor P.O.Box 94600 Lincoln, Nebraska 68509 Phone: (402)475-8451 North Dakota Chief, Research and Statistics North Dakota Employment Security Bureau P.O.Box 1537 Bismarck, North Dakota 58505 Phone: (701)224-2868 Nevada Chief, Employment Security Research Nevada Employment Security Department 500 East Third Street Carson City, Nevada 89713 Phone: (702)8854550 Director, Division of Research and Statistics Ohio Bureau of Employment Services 145 South Front Street Columbus, Ohio 43216 Phone: (614)466-3240 Oklahoma Chief, Research and Planning Division Oklahoma Employment Security Commission 310 Will Rogers Memorial Office Bldg. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73105 Phone: (405)521-3735 Oregon Assistant Administrator for Research and Statistics Employment Division Department of Human Resources 875 Union Street N.E. Salem, Oregon 97311 Phone: (503)378-3220 Pennsylvania Director, Research and Statistics Division Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry 7th and Forster Streets Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17121 Phone: (717)787-3265 Puerto Rico Chief, Research and Statistics DivisionFloor 15 Department of Labor and Human Resources Bureau of Employment Security Prudencio Rivera Martinez Building 505 Munoz Rivera Avenue Hato Rey, Puerto Rico 00918 Phone: (809)754-5385 New Hampshire Director, Economic Analysis and Reports New Hampshire Department of Employment Security 32 South Main Street Concord, New Hampshire 03301 Phone: (603) 224-3311-E xt. 251 New Jersey New Mexico New York Director, Division of Planning and Research N.J. Department of Labor and Industry P.O.Box 2765 Trenton, New Jersey 08625 Phone: (609)292-2643 Chief, Research and Statistics Section Employment Services Division Department of Human Services 401 Broadway— Floor 3rd P.O. Box 1928 Albuquerque, New Mexico 87103 Phone: (505)842-3105 Director, Division of Research and Statistics New York State Department of Labor State Campus-Building 12 Albany, New York 12240 Phone: (518)457-6181 122 Rhode Island Employment Security Research Supervisor Rhode Island Department of Employment Security 24 Mason Street Providence, Rhode Island 02903 Phone: (401)277-3704 South Carolina Director, Manpower Research and Analysis South Carolina Employment Security Commission P.O. Box 995 Columbia, South Carolina 29202 Phone: (803)758-8983 Virginia Commissioner, Virginia Employment Commission P.O.Box 1358 Richmond, Virginia 23211 Phone: (804)786-3001 Washington Chief, Research and Statistics Employment Security Department Employment Security Building 212 Maple Park Olympia, Washington 98504 Phone: (206)753-5224 Chief, Division of Labor and Economic Research Department of Employment Security 112 California Avenue Charleston, West Virginia 25305 Phone: (304)885-2660 Wisconsin Director, Bureau of Research and Statistics Department of Industry, Labor, and Human Relations P.O. Box 7944 Madison, Wisconsin 53707 Phone: (608) 266-7034 Wyoming Chief, Reports and Analysis Section Employment Security Commission P.O. Box 2760 Casper, Wyoming 82601 Phone: (307)237-3703 Chief, Research and Statistics Office of Administrative Services Department of Labor P.O. Box 1730 Aberdeen, South Dakota 57401 Phone: (605)622-2314 Tennessee Director of Administrative Services Vermont Department of Employment Security P.O. Box 488 Montpelier, Vermont 05602 Phone: (802) 229-0311 West Virginia South Dakota Vermont Chief, Research and Statistics Tennessee Department of Employment Security Cordell Hull Office Building, Room 519 436— Avenue, North 6th Nashville, Tennessee 37219 Phone: (615)741-2284 Texas Chief, Economic Research and Analysis Texas Employment Commission 1117 Trinity Street Austin, Texas 78701 Phone: (512)3974540 Utah Director, Research and Analysis Utah Department of Employment Security P.O.Box 11249 Salt Lake City, Utah 84147 Phone: (801)533-2014 ☆ 123 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE :!9 8 2 0 -3 8 1 -6 0 8 ( 3883) A Report on White-Collar Salaries by Occupation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics The 23 rd in an annual series, the “National Survey of Professional, Administrative, Tech nical, and Clerical Pay, March, 1982,” provides nationwide salary information for 101 work level categories covering 24 occupations. Data for programmers and programmer/analysts are published for the first time. The occupations include: Professional and Administrative Accountant Attorney Auditor Buyer Chemist Chief Accountant Director of Personnel Engineer Job Analyst Programmer/ Programmer Analyst Public Accountant Order Form Please send______ copies of "National Survey of Professional, Administrative, Technical, and Clerical Pay, March 1982,” Bulletin 2145. Stock no. 029-001-02720-6 price $4.75.** The following BLS regional offices will expedite orders: 1603 JFK Building Boston, MA 02203 Suite 3400 1515 Broadway New York, NY 10036 Technical Support Computer Operator Drafter Engineering Technician Photographer P.O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, PA 19101 1371 Peachtree St., N.E. Atlanta, GA 30367 9th Floor Federal Office Building 230 South Dearborn St. Chicago, IL 60604 Clerical Accounting Clerk File Clerk Key Entry Operator Messenger Personnel Clerk/Assistant Purchasing Assistant Secretary Stenographer Typist 2nd Floor 555 Griffin Square Bldg. Dallas, TX 75202 911 Walnut St. Kansas City, MO 64106 450 Golden Gate Ave. Box 36017 San Francisco, CA 94102 Also included are salary data from 1970, a des cription of survey methods and scope, survey changes in 1982, occupational definitions, and a comparison of average annual salaries in private industry with Federal Classification Act salary rates. You may send your order directly to: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 □ Enclosed is a check or money order payable to Superintendent of Documents. □ Charge to my GPO Account n o . ------------------------------------------------------- □ Charge to MasterCard* Account no.______________________________ Expiration date ____ D Charge to VISA* Account no. ___________________________________ Expiration date ____ 'Available only on orders sent directly to Superindent of Documents. “ Note: GPO prices are subject to change without notice. Name Organization (if applicable) Street address City, State, ZIP Code Bureau of Labor Statistics Regional Offices Region I 1603 JFK Federal Building Government Center Boston, Mass. 02203 Phone: (617) 223-6761 Region IV 1371 Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, Ga. 30367 Phone: (404) 881-4418 Region V Region II Suite 3400 1515 Broadway New York, N Y. 10036 Phone: (212) 944-3121 Region III 3535 Market Street P.O. Box 13309 Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Phone: (215) 596-1154 9th Floor Federal Office Building 230 S. Dearborn Street Chicago, III. 60604 Phone: (312) 353-1880 Region VI Second Floor 555 Griffin Square Building Dallas, Tex. 75202 Phone: (214) 767-6971 Regions VII and VIII 911 Walnut Street Kansas City, Mo. 64106 Phone: (816) 374-2481 Regions IX and X 450 Golden Gate Avenue Box 36017 San Francisco, Calif. 94102 Phone: (415) 556-4678
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