Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1972

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OCTOBER 1972
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER

JNITED STATES
PARTMENT OF
3MMERCE
JBLICATION
O

\.

U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS




BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST

This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication

areMorton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
Editorial assistance is provided by Maureen Padgett of
the Publications Services Division, Social and
Economic Statistics Administration.
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Peter G. Peterson, Secretary
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
and Administrator,

This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:

Social and Economic Statistics Administration

Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
George Hay Brown, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

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This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payao
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washingto
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BC»

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

OCTOBER

iii

1972

Data Through September
Series ESI No. 72-10

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8

Composite Indexes
NBER Short List




43
46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
48
Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
Wages and Productivity
58
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 60

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

37
39

Actual and Potential Gross National Product ... 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

66
67
68

PART II. TABLES

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income

A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

84
85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

D3
D4
D5

Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components

86
87

Federal Government Activities
Price Movements

89
90
92
94

Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes

74
76
77
78
79
81
83

Actual and Potential GNP

95

Analytical Ratios

96
97
99

Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

103
103
104

PART III. APPENDIXES




A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See July 1972issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See May 1972 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See September 1972 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series

105

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series

110

E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See Sept. 1972 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See September 1972issue)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

116
119
122

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

anges in this issue are as follows:

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,

1. The following series based on factory employment data have

comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment

een revised:

Series 1, 21, 41, 48, 63, 740, 741, 745, 746, 770,

methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may

58, 859, and DDL. This revision reflects the source agency's
nnual updating of the benchmark and a new seasonal adjustment,

result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,

evised data for these series are shown in this issue for the

changes In placement of

eriod 1970 to date. Comparable data for the earlier period will

other series, changes

series In relation to

e shown in a subsequent issue.
Diffusion index D41 is also affected by this revisionj
.owever, at press time sufficient data for component series were
vailable only for the computation of 1-month indexes for the
.atest 9 months and 6-month indexes for the latest 3 months.
)iffusion indexes for the earlier periods will be computed and
mblished as soon as possible.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained
'rom the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Division of Industry and Employment Statistics.
Che November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release
on November 30.



in composition of
Indexes, etc.

2. The series based wholly or in part on manufacturing and trade inventories
data (series 31, 71, and 851) have been revised for the period 1966 to date. These
revisions reflect a revision of the data on retail inventories by the source agency.
Revised data are shown in this issue for the period 1970 to date. Comparable data
for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Business
Outlook Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Social and Economic Statistics
Administration.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 250, 252, 253, 260, 262, 264,
266, 270, 271, 274, 275, 280, 282, 284, 286, 288, 290, 292, 230A, 241A, 244A, 245A,
250A, 262A, 266A, 280A, 282A, 28^A, 286A, and 288A.
4- Appendix D contains descriptions for series 50, 63, 66, 85, 102, 103, 113,
122, 123, 125-128, 745, 746, 770, 857, and 8595. Appendix G contains recovery comparison charts for series 41, 42, 59, 63, 200,

205, 210, and 825.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD




moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an

accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
&* SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND

UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Com prenensi ve
unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(12 series)




II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)

III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

IV. INVENTORIES

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)

Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)

AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

Backlog of investment
Comprehensive
production
commitments
<3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive incomt
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)

investment
expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)

VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)

Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
(3 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)

comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

OTHER KEY
; INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis
publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost

per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.

SECTION F

INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.

Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" - fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted P/a, 2,
or 2V2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" —
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or



2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Average
1969

1970

1971

2dQ
1971

3dQ
1971

Percent change
4th Q
1971

IstQ
1972

2dQ
1972

3dQ
1972

4th Q
to
IstQ
1972

IstQ
to
2dQ
1972

2dQ
to
3dQ
1972

=
o>
oo

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Grose National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

Ann.rate.bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
do

A2. National and Personal Income
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
National income, current dollars
do
Personal income current dollars
do . . . .
Disposable personal income current dol . . .
do
Disposable personal income 1958 dol
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol.. .
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
1958 dollars

220.
222
224
225
226.

2.9
1.6
1.3
2.7
1.4

2.7
2.3
0.4
2.5
2.1

2.0
1.5
0.6
1.8
1.3

200
205
210
215
217

NA
939,5
798.7
579.9

3.1
2.9
1.6
0.9

2.1
1.7
1.6
1.0

NA
1.9
2.1
1.5

220
222
224
225

3»75l

3*821

1.4

1.4

1.9

226

2»7i6

2»739

2»774

0'7

0*8

1«3

227

680.5
503.2
106.1
70.2
35.9
P83.4
290.9

696.1
511,0
111.0
74.1
36.9
288,3
296.7

713.4
520.9
113.9
75-7
38.2
297.2
302.4

728,1
528.7
118.4
77.1
41.3
301.4
308.3

2.3
1.6
4.6
5.6
2.8
1.7
2.0

2.5
1.9
2.6
2.2
3.5
3.1
1.9

2.1 230
1.5 231
4.0 232
1.8 233
8.1 234
1.4 236
2.0 237

930.3
725.6
128.2
4*588
3*579

976.4 1050.4 1043.0 1056.9 1078.1 1109.1 1139-4 1162.2
722.1 741.7 737.9 742.5 754.5 766.5 783.9 795.3
135.2 141.6 141.3 142.4 142.9 144.7 145-3 146.1
4»765 5t072 5*043 5*098 5*187 5*326 5*461 5*559
3? 524 3*582 3*568 3,582 3*630 3*681 3*757 3,804

766.0
750.9
634.4
513.6

798.6
806.3
689.5
533.2

855.7
861.4
744.4
554.7

851.4
858.1
742.9
554.6

860.8
867.9
750.4
556.5

876.2
881.5
758.5
560.9

903.1
907.0
770.5
565.7

922.1
922.1
782.6
571.4

3*130

3»366

3*595

3*592

3*620

3*649

3f700

2»534

2»6o3

2»679

2»682

2«684

2»698

616.8

660.4
493.0
101.9
67.6
34.3
277.2
281.3

670.7
497.4
106.1
69.0
37.1
278.5
286.1

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234
236
237

Ann.rate,bil.dol.
... do
do
... . do .
do
do
do

579.5.
469,1
90.8
59.1
31.7
245.9
242.7

261.8

664*9
495.4
103.5
68.1
35.4
278.1
283.3

Gross private domestic investment, total. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol .
do
Fixed investment, total nonresidential ....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures. . . . do .
do
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.. ..
do
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
2
do
Change in business inventories, total . . . .

139.0
98.5
34.2
64.3
32.6
7.8

137.1
100.9
36.0
64.9
31.2
4.9

152.0
105.8
38.4
67.4
42.6
3.6

153.0
105.0
38.3
66.7
41.4
6.6

152.2
106.3
38.7
67.6
44.5
1.3

158.8
109.8
38.8
71.0
47.3
1.7

168.1
116.1
41.3
74.8
51.6
0.4

177.0
119*2
42*0
77.2
52.8
5.0

181.0
121.1
41.6
79.4
54.2
5.7

5.9
5.7
6.4
5.4
9.1
-1.3

5.3
2.7
1.7
3.2
2.3
4.6

2.3
1.6
-1.0
2.8
2.7
0.7

240
241
242
243
244
245

Ann.rate,bil.dol .
do
do .

1.9
55.5
53.6

3.6
62.9
59.3

.7
66.1
65.4

0.1
66.7
66.6

0.4
68.5
68.2

-2.1
63.0
65.1

-4.6
70.7
75.3

-5-2
70.0
75-2

-3.4
75.0
78.4

-2.5
12.2
15.7

-0.6
-1.0
-0.1

1.8
7.1
4.3

250
252
253

Ann.rate f bil.dnl .
.
do
d o . ...

210.0
98.8
78.4
111.2

219.0
96.5
75.1
122.5

232.8
97.8
71.4
135.0

229.5
96.3
71.2
133.3

233.6
97.9
70.1
135.7

240.9
100.7
71.9
14Q.2

249.4
105.7
76.7
143.7

254.1
108.1
78.6
146.0

256.6
106.2
75.2
150.4

3.5
5.0
6.7
2.5

1.9
2.3
2.5
1.6

1.0
-1.8
-4.3
3.0

260
262
264
266

Ann. rate, bil.dol •

182.3

183.0

194.6

191.0

197.7

200.1

208.8

214.6

220.7

4.3

2.8

2.8

270

do
. . . do

5.0
267.4

1.9
284.0

1.1
297.3

3.6
294.8

-1.0
298.5

-1.9
303.0

0.4
308.4

3.0
317.5

1.5
322.4

2.3
1.8

2.6
3.0

-1.5
1.5

271
274

do

2.8

3.0

2.5

3.1

2.3

3.5

0.0

2-1

4.1

2.1

2.0

275

566.0
67.2
22.6
79.8
30.5

603.8

66.8
23.3
69.9
34.8

644.1
70.0
24.5
78.6
38.5

639.6
69.3
24.4
80.1
38.1

648.0
70.7
24.8
78.3
39.1

660*4
71.8
25.0
79.4
39.7

682.7
73.3
25.2
81,8
40.1

697.8
73-2
24.2
86*1
40*9

709.7
75.3
26.2
NA
41.7

3.4
2*1
0.8
3.0
1.0

2.2
-0.1
-4.0
5.3
2.0

1.7
2.9
8.3
NA
2.0

280
282
284
286
288

143.9
38.2

142.1
54.9

153.9
60.9

154.8
64.1

154.6
61.0

157.8
59.3

163.9
55.7

168.0
50-1

NA
51.3

3.9
-6.1

2.5
-10.1

NA
2.4

290
292

15.4
81.6
8.8

11.0
86.3
-10.1

15.8
93.8
-16.9

16.0
92.4
-18.0

15.2
95.0
-16.9

18.8
97.4
-18.7

17.0
99,7
-7.7

19.8
105.3
-6-9

NA
104.1
NA

-9.6
2.4
11.0

16.5
5.6
0.8

NA
-1.1
NA

294
296
298

Ann.rate.bil.dol •
do
do
. . . . do .
do

718.9
6.7
80.1
23.7
35.0

718.0
4.1
77.6
22.3
28.4

739.1
2.6
76.8
29.1
36.4

732.6
5.3
76.4
28.3
34.8

741.7
0.7
76.4
30.1
37.8

753.8
0.7
79.2
32.1
35.8

766.3
0.3
82.2
34.2
35.6

780.0
3.9
83.6
34.4
37.0

790.8
4.5
84.4
35.0
39.6

1.7
-0.4
3.8
6.5
-0.6

1.8
3.6
1.7
0.6
3.9

1.4
0.6
1.0
1.7
7.0

273
246
247
248
249

(JO

145.9

139.0

137.6

135.7

137.6

141.1

142.2

143.9

143.6

0*8

1.2

-0.2

261

2.3

36.2

49.2

48.8

52.6

49.0

45.5

36.7

34.0

-2.7

207

Total, current dollars
Total 1958 dollars ... .
...
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars

477.0

9Q.5
62.5
28.0

264.4

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241
242.
243
244.
245

A5. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense
State and local

. . . . do .

A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods

-3.5

A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284
286.
288.

Compensation of employees
Ann.rate.bil.dol •
do
Proprietors' income
do
Rental income of persons
do
Corp. profits and inventory va luation adj . .
do
Net interest
A9. Saving

290. Gross saving total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 .

Ann. rate, bil.dol .
do

do
do
do

A10. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
261.

Final sales, 1958 dollars.
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars 2.
Fixed invest., nonresidential, 1958 dollars.
Fixed invest., residential struc., 1958 dol .
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Govt. purchases of goods and services,
total 1958 dollars.
El. Actual and Potential GNP

207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2




Ann.rate.bil.dol .

-3.5

-8.8

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Average
1970

1971

IstQ

2dQ

3dQ

July

Aug.

Sept.

1972

1972

1972

1972

1972

1972

July
to
Aug.
1972

Aug.

IstQ

to
Sept.

to
2dQ

2dQ
to
3dQ

1972

1972

1972

Series number I

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes

810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3.

1967=100
do
do
do

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS

816 Profitability-

do
do .....
do
do .....
do

•

115.0
120.3
113.8
130.9

126.2
124.0
114.8
125.0

135.5
130.8
120.0
125.9

141.2
134.5
123.0
127.7

144.6
137.7
125.6
130.6

141.9
136.2
124.4
129.4

145.6
137.8
125.7
130.5

NA
119.7
108.0
106.4
NA

98.5

118.9
105.8
105.6
111.8

100.4
119.6
108.6
107.1
119.9

40*6

4Q.6

40.6

93.2

93.9

98.0

98.5

106.5
103.2
94.1
98.4

112.3
102.1
100.2
105.4

116.1
104.1
103.7
109.5

118.4
107.1
105.4
112.8

39.8

39.9

2.6
1.2
1.0
0.9

0*4
0.9
0.7
1.1

4.2
2.8
2.5
1.4

2.4
2.4
2.1
2.3

810
820
825
830

NA
0.8
0.9

NA

1.9
0.6
2.6
1.4
7.2

NA

0.5
2.0
2.9
1.6
3.0

NA
1.1
0.8
0.9
NA

813
814
815
816
817

40*7

0*0

0-2

1*0

0*0
0.4

O.i
NA

146*2

139*1
126.6
132*0

NA
120*6
109*6
106*5

-0*6

Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. • .
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production

lours

40*3

4Q.7

do
Per 100 employ..

3-0
4.0

2.9
3.9

3-1
4.5

3.4
4.3

3.4
NA

3-4
4.3

3.4
4.7

3-5
NA

*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 4
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. . Per 100 employ..

296
1.8

292
1.6

259
1.2

271
1.2

249
NA

264
1.2

233
1.0

250
NA

11.7

132
92

89
80

105
87

122
94

NA
103

131
103

130
106

NA
99

-0.8

0.2

0«3

-0*2

o.o

1
21

-0.2

NA

-4.6

8.1
NA

5
3

8.0

NA
9.6

50
46

1.3
1.0
0.9

0.5
0.6
0.4

48
41
42

0.0

0.3

43

0.2

45

0.0

0.2

40

0.1

0.1

0.0

44

2.0
1.5
1.2

200
205
47

-7.3

NA

0.0

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Job Vacancies:

Thousands
1967~100 . .

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . .

Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted!2. . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
do
(inverted 4 ) 2

4Q.30 42.12 142.83 142.29 142.58 143.62
138.05 137.72
70*597 70*646 71*769 72*512 72*954 72*661 72*980 73*221
75*180 75»725 77i423 78 » 084 78i41i 78 i 237 78*348 78*6^7

2.9

0.2
0.4
0.1

NA
.6.6

0.7
0.3
0.4

6.0

5.8

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.6

5*5

3.5

4.1

3.4

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.3

3*4

0.3

-0.1

2.6

3.2

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2*8

0.1

-0.2

0.8

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.4

1*3

5.0

-0.1

0*1

16.2

-0.2

LAGGING INDICATORS

Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and

do

-0.1

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
R? Wapjes salaries in minim? mfg constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales

Ann.rate.bil.dol. .

do
1967=100

976.4 1050.4 1109.1 1139.4 1162.2
783.9 795.3
766.5
722.1 741.7
113.1 114.5
110.0
106.8
106.7

113.7

114.5

115*2

0.7

0.6

2.7
2.3
2.8

939.5

932.9

940.0

221.4

218.8

221.7

945*7
223-7

0.8
1.3

0.6
0.9

1.7
2.3

1.9
1.1

52
53

NA
122.24
NA 123.60 126.19
1134.4 1156.6
36 t 736 37 t 494 37t342 37*843 37*297
30*554 30 » 868 30*861 31*198 30*546

2.1

NA

2.7
2.3
3.3
2.7

NA
2.0
2.1
1.0

56
57
54
59

NA
NA

2.6
2.9

NA
NA

12
13

1.8
3.9
5.8

5.7
1.2

3.2
7.4
1.9
NA
1.8

6
8
10
11
24

0.0
3.4
8.8

9
28
29

4.2
NA

96
97

861.4
202.5

907.0

Bil dol
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dol
do

104.42 111.92
971.5 1046.7
3 l f 2 6 0 34*026
27 » 553 28*975

119.06
1108.6
35*560
29*748

1967=100

115.1
118.1
108.1 111.2
22 f 009 24*001 25*609 26*348

Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do

806.3

197.5

213.9

922.1
218.9

1.3
1.1

-1.4
-2.1

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation

New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . . Bil.dol.
1967-100
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . . Bil. dol
do
.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
do
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense
Mil. sq. feet
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space . . .
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . . Ann. rate, thous. .
1967=100
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing.

118.1
NA
NA 26*893

117,8
NA

NA
NA

27.19
126

29.81
146

32.78

34.6^

35.74

34.66

35.96

36.60

160

8.33
6.34
6.81

8.90
5.76
7.39

9.56
6.57
8.30

162
10.57

174
10*77
NA

155
10.65

180
10.53

187
11.14

9.18

9.10

9.21

9.22

63.80
l»44l

61.19
2*051
167.9

64.35
2*513

72.66
2*263

72-69
2*341

67.74
2*218

75.65
2*453

183.1

177.2

192.8

184.8

196.1

74,69
2*352
197*4

69.90

71.56
19.66

75.06
20.58

78.23

75.67

76.69

78.23

118.

6.85
9.02

-0.3

NA

3.8
16.1
-1.1

1.2
11*7
10.6

0*1
-1.3
-4.1

6.1

0-7

1.3

2*0

10.6

4.3
8.7
12.9
-9.9
-3.2

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 Bil. dol., EOP...
do
97. Backlog of capital approp., mfg.5




71.36
20.96

19.06

NA

4.9
4.7

Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
1970

1971

Series number |

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

IstQ

2dQ

3dQ

July

1972

1972

1972

1972

Sept.

Aug.
1972

1972

July
to

to
Sept.

IstO
to '
2dQ

2dQ
to
3dQ

1972

1972

1972

Aug.

Aug.
1972

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip.. . Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 79.74 81.22 86.79 87.12 a90-38
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures. . . .
103.91 107.00 117.99 122.52
NA 121.70 124.50

0.4

3.7

61

NA

2.3

NA

3.8

NA

69

NA

7.3

NA

4.6
3.0

0.7
NA

245
31

LEADING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2 . . Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
*31. Change, mfg. and trade, inven., bk. val.2.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories
of materials,
supplies, book value 2
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer 2 ® . . . Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries2®
do . .
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus2 Bll. dol

4.9
8.2

3.6
7.9

46

50

0.8

0.4

55

54

51
-0.92

48
-0.12

0.4
5.7

51

5.0
8.7

5.7
NA

5.3

12.6

50

53

44

56

59

0.0

NA

5.0

4.0

NA

55

54

56

54

57

56

54

59

64

63

63

65

-0.9

0.55

1.17

1.06

0.60

1.02

1.55

3

-1

3

37

NA

0.9

NA

20

3

-1

-1

2

26

0

2

5

5
-0.11

32
25

12
-1.0

0.42

0.53

0.62

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventories:
*71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5. . Bil.dol., EOP...
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, bk. val.5.
do

174.94 182.84 184.26 186.44
35.01 35.10 34.22 34.67

NA 186.88 187.93
NA
34.82
35.10

NA
NA

0.6
0.8

NA
NA

1.2
1.3

NA
NA

71
65

0.2

7.8

1.6

23

2.6

1.0

19

4.0
3.4

NA
NA

16
18

0.1
0.2
0.4
5.8
4.8

NA
NA
0.5
NA
NA

22
15
17
34
35

0.7
0.9

55
55
58

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967=100

113.9

107.1

124.8

0.7

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®

1941-43=10

83.22

98.29 105.41 108.16 109.20 107.21 111.01 109.39

3.5

Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, curr. dol. .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dol. .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries2
15. Prof its(after taxes) per dol . of sales, mfg.2
«17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corp., curr. dol
35. Net cash flow, corp., 1958 dol

Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do

40.2
31.0

8.4
4.0

45.9
33.8

9.0
4.1

113.6

49.5
35.7

9.0
4.1

122.5

51.5
36.9

9.1
4.3

124.4

123.7

124.6

-1.5

NA
NA
NA
NA

96.8
70.5
54.2

97.5
80.8
58.6

97.8
88,2
62.4

98.2
93.3
65.4

98,7

110.0
0.3
110.2

114.0
0.2
113.8

116.4
0.4
116.3

117.6
0.4
117.4

118.4
0.3
118,5

98.5

98.9

98.8

0.4

-0.1

118.1
0.2
118.3

118.5
0.4
118.5

118.7
0.2
118.8

0.3
0.2
0.2

-0.2

NA
NA

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities®. 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A 2 Percent
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®. 1967=100

0.2
0.3

1.0
0.0
0.9

-0.1

LAGGING INDICATORS

Unit Labor Costs:
do
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy. . .
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1967=100

119.0

122.6

125.7

125.5

125.6

-0.2

0.1

63

0.812
113.8

0.832

0.842

118.9

NA
120.2

-0.1

116.7

0.841
119.4

119.8

120.2

NA
0.7

68
62

120.5

0.3

0.2

0.4

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS

Flows of Money and Credit:
Ann.rate, percent.
85. Change in money supply (Ml)2
102. Change in money supply plus time
2
do
deposits at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
do
banks and nonbank inst.2 (M3)2
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
33. Change in mortgage debt
2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt . . . . . . .do
do
..
112. Change in business loans2
do
110. Total private borrowing

5.33

6.08

9.23

5.29

8.57

14.20

5.51

5.99

-8.69

0.48

-3.94

3.28

85

7.84

10.60

13.11

8.52

9.23

11.26

8.00

8.43

-3.26

0.43

-4.59

0.71

102

11.43
NA
NA

13.47

10.53
NA
17.28
13.88

10.29
NA
NA
15.37

-2.94
NA

-4.55
11.49

4.96

-0.24
NA
NA

0.69

50.04

14.97

1.49

7.51

12.53

15.29

10.74

19.69

36.26

38.07

49.56

2.82
0.20

8.04
1.65

11.87

15.45

1.39

1.68

88.97 130,45 133.28 136.93

9.39

12.32
-1.09

2.7

NA

103
33
113
112
110

NA

9.2
-0.15

-22.6
-0.04

14
39

186

85

243

93

NA

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)® Mil. dol
157.31 159,74 171.20 155.50 19Q.59 204.62 253.62 113.54
39. Delinquency rate, install. loans(inv.4)2 5 Percent, EOP. . . .
1.88
NA
1.68
NA
1.92
1.92
1.73
1.87

-23.9
NA

55.2

3.58
0.29

NA
NA
7.71

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)2®
Money
114
116.
115.
117.

Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate2 ® • • .
Corporate bond yields2®
Treasury bond yields2®
Municipal bond yields 2 <®




Mil. dol

Percent

do
do
do

-616

-207

6.44
9.05
6.58

4.34
7,85
5.74

ft.^e;

5. aft

126

3.43
7.49
5.65
s.9a

41

-202

-55

-183

-369

128

4.65
7.72
5.70

-0.05
-0.13

3.75
7.67
5.66

4.24
7.68
5.63

4.06
7.72
5.59

4.01
7.59
5.59

e^TA

K.TA

Cl-IM

^.-*n

e;_ ^A

o.oo

A- 11

0.64
0.13
0.11
r\ r\£*

0.32
0.18
0.01
A .1 1

0.49
0.01

-0.03
r\ . AA

114
116
115
« 11

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Average
IstQ
1972

1970

2dQ
1972

July

3dQ

1972

1972

Aug.
1972

Sept.

July
to
Aug.
1972

1972

1971

Aug.

IstQ

to
Sept.

to
ZdQ

2dQ
to
3dQ

1972

1972

1972

Series number

1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt 5
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding

Bil.dol., EOP... 99.02 107.06 110.03 113.89
NA
NA 114.92 116.36
Mil.dol
84 t 798 84 » 295 85t072 86 t 497 87 t 092 85,894 87,051 88,332

Interest Rates. on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*6J. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2<g). . Percent
do
118 Mortgage yields residential2©

8.48
9.03

6.32
7.70

5.52
7.47

5.59
7.52

5.84
7.55

7.54

7.55

7.56

1.3
1.3

0.01

NA
1.5

0.01

3.5
1.7

0.07
0.05

NA
0.7

0.25
0,03

66
72
67
118

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
01. Foreign Trade

500. Merchandise trade balance 2

Mil.dol
233
do
3»56l
do
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles
It 437
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . 1957=59=100 ....
253
Mil.dol
512. General imports
3?328

-161

-500

3t634

3,973
It451

It 453
246
3«795

-614

3 1860
It587

301

336

4t473

4t474

-506

-542

-463

-513

4,126
NA
NA
4,632

4,019
1,706
368
4t56l

4,202
2t036

4,158
NA
NA
4,671

412
4t664

79
4.6
19.3
12.0

2.3

-50
-1.0

NA
NA
0*2

-114
-2.8

9.4
11.6

0.0

108
6.9
NA
NA
3.5

500
502
506
508
512

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

250
515
517
519
521
522

NA
NA

NA
NA
-21.0
NA

600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625

211
781
781
750

02. U.S. Balance of Payments

250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.

Balance on goods and services2 .... ... Mil. dol
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances . .
do
do
Balance on current account 2
do
Balance on curr.acct. and long-term capital
2
do
Net liquidity balance
do
Official reserve transactions balance 2 ...

182 -Itl74
-It 563
-2tl64
-765 -2t344 -3t584
-962 -5 t502 -3t094
-2,459 -7t442 -3t256
892
523
90

-201
-712

-It547
-It924
-2t442
-It9l7
-2t404
-863

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-373
-361
-278

1,667
690
2,393

03. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621
648.
625.

Ann. rate.bil.dol..
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
do
Federal receipts, NIA
do
Federal expenditures, NIA
do
National defense purchases
Mil.dol
Defense Dept. obligations, total
do
Defense Dept. obligations procurement . .
New orders, defense products
Bil. aol
Mil.dol
Military contract awards in U.S

-12.9
191.6
204.5

-21.7
199.1
220 1 8

-14.8
221.4
236.3

-21.6
224.9
246.5

NA
NA
243.1

75.1

71.4

76.7

78.6

75.2

6f626

6t795

It 649

It 769

7t610
2tl48

6 1 769
It 450

1.79

1.86

2.06

2.14

2,785

2t775

3t336

2t930

130.6
116.3
0.4
110.4

136.6
121.3
0.3
113.9

139.5
123.7
0.3
117.0

do

121,2

129.6

135.0

do

104.1

106.9

109.0

109.8

110.1

110-0

89.98

92.42

95.34

96.32

96.16

123,2
105.9
104.6
103.4

131.7
108.6
108.5
107.0

137.3
110.9
110.5
109.9

96.16
138.9
111.4
112.2
111.3

NA
NA
1.69

-6.8

7t534
2t213

NA
NA

NA
NA
2,03

1.52

1.51

NA

3tl83

2t641

NA

140.3
124.7
0.2
118.2

141.3
125.8
0.4
119.9

125.5
0.4
119.7

125.7
0.2
119.9

126*2

0.5
12Q.2

136.8

138.3

137.8

138.3

NA
NA
-0.7

NA
NA
34.4

1.6
4.3
2.5
-11.1
-32.5
3.9
-12.2

-1.4
-4.3

-17.0

NA

0.2

-0.1

0.2

0.4
0.3
0.3

1.0

0.7
0.9
0.2
1.4

138*8

0.4

0.4

1.3

1.1

740

110.1

110«2

0.1

0.1

0.7

0.3

741

96.16

96.64

0.0

0.5

0.9
1.2
0.5
1.5
1.3

0.2
1.4
0.4
0.9
1.5

859
745
746
770
858

0.5
0.4
-2.1

0*2
0-3
1.2

0.6
0.7
1.0

0.5
0.7
2.7

841
842
843

2.1

NA

-1.3

NA

-1.9

0.2
NA

850
851

NA

-1.2

NA
0*8

-1.2
-0.1

NA
1.3

852
853

-11.1

0.0

854

04. Price Movements

211.
781.
781c.
750.

Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product
Consumer prices, all items ©
Chg. in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 .
Wholesale prices, all commodities®

1958-100
1967=100
Percent
1967=100

-0.2

0.6
0.8

05. Wages and Productivity

740. Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers
859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings,
745.
746.
770.
858.

1967 dol.

Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm 1967=100
do
Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm. .
do
Output per man-hour, total private economy
do
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
D6

140.8
111.9
113.2
113.0

Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components

841 Total civilian labor force

.

Thousands . ... 82t77l 84 t 129 85t852 86t388 86,792 86 t 467 86 t 860 87 t 049
do
78 t642 79tll8 80 t 833 8lt422 81t959 81,682 81t973 82t222
do
4» 129 S t O l l 5t018 4 t 9 6 6 4,833 4,785 4,887 4t827

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios

850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. Percent
851. Ratio, inven. to sales, mfg. and trade — Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.1

do
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods 1967-100 . . .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2®. . Percent

78.3
1.64

75.0
1.60

75.3
1.55

77.4
1.52

2.98
91.8

2.70
83.6

2.53
83.7

2.50
83.6

84.7

0.080

0.082

0.072

0.064

0.064

0.687

0.478

0.633

5.4

0.518
5.3

0.565

5.3

5.5

5.8

77.6

NA

1.51

1.49

NA

2.58

2.55
84.8

83*8

0.641

0.646

85.5

0*611

1.2

0.8

-5.4

9.1
0.2

12.0

0.3

860
857

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by © , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list* of indicators. NA = not available,
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis).
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources
of Series" in the back of BCD.
-'•For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Since this series tends to'move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for month series) are the last figures for the period.




8

those

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Implicit price deflator, Q fHKlex: 1958-100)

1950 51

52

Current data for thes

53

54

55

e shown on page 69.

 OCTOBER 1972


56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

1950 51

52

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

10




OCTOBER

1972

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A3 ] PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

1950

51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

BCII OCTOBER 1972



11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

12



OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A5

FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
+10-1

+5-

0-

-5-

-NH

807060504030-

20-

90-i
807060504030-

20-

10-1

fill!
1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

OCTOBER 1972




13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
<-

Government purchases of goods and services-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.




14

OCTOBER 1972

IICII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII OCTOBER




1972

15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

1950

51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.




16

OCTOBER

1972

IICII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

298, Government surplus or deficit. Q

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

) OCTOBER 1972




17

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

246.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dolars,

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.




18

OCTOBER

1972

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

70 n

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
60-

50-

40-

30-

241A. Fixed investment nonresidential,
as percent of 6Mfe^ i

266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services
as percent of GNP, (

262A. Federal Government purchases
of goods and services as percent of GNP, 0

20-

10-

244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, Q
0J

250A. Net exports of goods and services
as percent of GNP, 0

245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares

isr

80n

280A. Compensation ef employees as percent of national income, Q
70-

60-

50-

40-

30-

282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, Q

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, Q

20-

10-

284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, a

288A. Net interest as percent of national income,
0J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/OCTOBER 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BUI

19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

mm

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Average workweek,

2t.

overtime

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

insurance (thousands-inverted scale)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (pjjfttD employees-inverted scale

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




20

OCTOBER

1972

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Bl

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

300-1
250200-

50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
150«

100-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

s

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.

BCII OCTOBER 1972




21

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Comprehensive Unemployment

34567-

1234567-

1234- 1
56-

Lagging Indicators

15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

22




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

t dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*205.GNP in 1958 dollars,

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

BCII OCTOBER

1972




23

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

P

P

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

T

P

T

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

24




OCTOBER

1972

ItCIt

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1950

51

52

53

54

P

55

56

57

(May) (Feb.)

T

58

P

59

60

(Nov.) (Nov.)

T

P

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

T

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

ltd*

 OCTOBER 1972


25

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Section B

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-temil

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.

26



OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Backlog of Investment Commitments
120100-

80-

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)

I
60-

40-

Lagging Indicators

60-

40J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.

BCII

 OCTOBER 1972


27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

28



OCTOBER 1972 IM.JP

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT— Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

Lagging Indicators
200-j
180160 - c

140- •
120- ;
100804035-

65.

m

& manuf^§|s'townteries,fWstied polls (ML dot)

30252015-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.

BCII OCTOBER 1972



29

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
160-1
140-,
120100- '
80140->

120100- '

*!9. Stock prices. 500

80 - '
60-

60-

50-<
40- "<

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (am. rate, tail, dol.)

305040-

18. Corporate profits after taxes,
1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit (W.)

30-'

2014-

corporate, at industries, Q (percent)
1210-

6J
75311010510095-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.




30

OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section B
Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

B5 ] PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Leading Indicators-Con.
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

100 -|
90807060-

current rioters, 0 (an, rate, Wt. dol.)
50-

40-

30 J

Roughly Coincident Indicators

-JL

120-i
115-.
110- '
105-'
100-

120115110105-

58. Wholes* prices, manufactttf goods [wtex: 1967=100)
10095908580-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

licit


OCTOBER 1972


31

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Q (am. rate, percent)

real corporate product, 0 (dollars)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.

32




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT

Leading Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)

103. Change r f i i e y supply

[Ml] (ana |f|8»rcent; MCD moving avg.-8-temi]

99. DUange IH

debt (ML rate, ML dol)

Change in consumer instaflment debt [ann. rate, bil. dol.)

MCO moving avg.-6-twm)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.


OCTOBER 1972


33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Flows of Money and Credit - Con

IIP. Total private borrowing. Q (am. rate, Ml. dol.)

14. Liabilities of business failures (mil dot-inverted scale;
moving avf.-6-te?ni]

39. DeBnqueflcy rate, 00 days and ow, fetal installment loans
|pereem§^t«d scale!
1.5-

v
S

2.0-

2.5-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.




34

OCTOBER 1972

IICII

Section B

r Chart

B6

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

93. Free reserves (bil. dot-inverted scale

114. Treasuiy bin rate (percent)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

115. Treasury bond yields (percent]

117. Municipal bond yields (percent

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.


r OCTOBER 1972


35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Outstanding Deb1

66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot.)

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dot.)

98Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages

7- .
rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)

65-

10-,

l^m

9-

111 m. ltertpp|it|,resktential(percent!

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.




36

OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

-.•', ,

'

U;

'
.':.
-• '

^i'
if!

"V
77;
X s; .''

7" 7
. '7' '' /

•.'-'• \
°- :•-•

7L;7

«MA *fc-'J -fe°J°-' l^^^»

• J-^ ,

7^7
~,,°-JC'

'

^
«?
A,

*

|||:
:?fll
X^llft

.1^
-A

11 : «t

!jS«1l»:-«

JT

El

£fi.
Jtt

Index; 1987=100 i
I

11;!
Ill
ll!:

•'.-::-•/
:•:•-;••

810.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

y/
'-

JT

ion

lou-

-

^i^L
lit" \

sS^***

i
cn
150140-

mn_

III

rS;?!?*

(serieil, 43, 47, 52, 56)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
'Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.

BCII OCTOBER 1972



37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
16,17,18, ft 29, 31,113)

813. Marginal emptoyment adjustments (series 1, 2,3, 5)

814. Capital 'nvestmefrt commitments (seres 8,10,12, 29)

815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 2$, 31,3?)

816. Profrtabity (series 16,17,19)

817. Sensitive financial ftows (series 33, 85,112,113)

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

38



OCTOBER 1972

licit

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)

*5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance (thousands-inverted scale)

*12. Net business formation (index:

*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)

*10. Contracts and orders, plant
and equipment (bil. dot]

*Z9. New building permits, private housing units (index: I9b/=iuuj

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.

BUI OCTOBER



1972

39

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

*31. Change in boofr Vjliye. manufacturing and trade inventories
ann. rate, bit. dol.; MOD moving avg.-5-term)

*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1907=1001

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194143=10)

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)

*113. Change In consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78, 79, 80, and 81.

40



OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

^.Manufacturing and trade
(toil. dol.)SS

*54. Sates of retail stores
(bilttoi.) C

70-

65-

Z_

*41. Employees on nonagricultural
p^rolls (millions)

60-

55-"

2-

unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scalej

345-

\z
1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

67-

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.

OCTOBER 1972



41

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators

and over (percent-inverted scale

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.

42



OCTOBER 1972

BCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

and eouiixRent, afl industries,

percent of actual (percent)

1957

BCD

58

59

 OCTOBER 1972


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

43

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

410. Manufacturers' sates, total value, Q (H. dot)

412. Manufactiirefs tewjntoncs, total
book value. Q fbfl. dol.l

414 Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
jnccefii consktefcd Mgii

f

416. Adequacy of manufacturers'capacity:
considered excessive, Q (percent

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

44




OCTOBER

1972

!!€!»

Section C

rChart

Cl

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q

Anticipated'

60-,

(a) Percent of households reporting no change It family income (percent)
50-

40-

(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30-

20-

(c) Percent of he

reporting tower family income (percent)

»

E3

10-

0-

425, Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
*>'?J ^

fa) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)

/N-*. li;lt

A/

\l§^ -—

20-

•

=4-

v»

•

^

(b) Increase less decrease (percent)

15-

10-

(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
5-1
10-1

9-

[d) Anticipations as percent or actual data [percent]

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

Digitized forKM!
FRASEROCTOBER 1972


45

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May)
P

(Nov.)
P

(Feb.)
T

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)

(Nov.)
T

061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
100-

i (a) Actual expenditures

7550- c

25-

0100-

f V
j*

75-

v* / *' V.
XV
_V

50- <

(c) First anticipations

25-

0100-

D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)'
9080-

•

70-

<

6050100-

0442. Net profits, manufacturing am) trade (4-Q span)

iS
«55

0444. Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4*0 span)

D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade |4-Q span)

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

46




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart

DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)

D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

75-

50-J
100-1
1

0480. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

75-

50 J
100-1

D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
75-

V
50-J
100-i

D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span

75-

50- 1
100 i

D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)

75-

50 J

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.


OCTOBER 1972


BCII

47

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P

T

T

ders, nonetectrical machinery
W;
•
lift

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.




OCTOBER 1972

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

1950 51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 87.


OCTOBER


1972

49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
68-1

64-

60-

56-

52-

48-

44-

40-

36-

530. Liquid fiabffrties to al foreigners, outstanding at end of
fit;
•**""
32-

28-

24-

20-

16-

12-

532. Liquid and certain nonHquid lattlties
foretell official agencies, outstanding 01 end of period
8-

ve assets-reserve position at end of period

18-

14-

10-1

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.




50

OCTOBER 1972

ltd*

Section D
Chart D2

| BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

T

76 -i
Goods and Services Movements,

Annual rate, Milton dollars

Except Transfers Under Military Grants

72-

68-

64-

60-

Excess of receipts
Excess of payments

56 J

561

52-

48-

44-

40-

250. Balance on goods and services
36-

32-

28-

2420-

16-

12-

investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services

8-

4J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

KCII

 OCTOBER 1972


51

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services

Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12-

8-

542. Income on U.S. investments abroad

i^l

1

4-

0J

543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.

8-1

4-

545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad

o-J
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.

8-1

Military sates and expenditures-

£

Iff

^

547. U.S.

expenditures abroad
4-

0-

12-

Transportation and other services8-

4-

1549. Payments
0-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

52




OCTOBER 1972

!!€!»

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

ItCII

OCTOBER 1972




53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

ACTIVITIES

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Receipts and Expenditures

+20-

600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
0-10- -20-30-

HI
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol]

260-,
24022020018016014012010080-

60-

602. Federal i

260-1
240220200180160140-

I product accounts, Q [ann. rate, bil. ooTT

1201008060-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.




54

OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. do!.; MCD moving avg,6-term)

621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
dol.; MCD moving avg,6-term)

647. new orders, oeiense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,6-term)

648. New orders, defense '>
products (bit. dot.; MCD
moving avg.-6-term)

625. Military contract awards in U.S.
(bil. sU; MIHJ rttovirt avg.-(MeMj

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.


OCTOBER 1972


55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
variable weigtrts prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100]

Consumer prices-

783. Commodities less foods

index, gross private product,
rate)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

56




OCTOBER 1972

licit

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91

ItCII

OCTOBER 1972




57

Section D
Chart

D5

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

741 Re* earnings (index: 1967-100)

production or nonsupervisory workers (196? dollars)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

58




OCTOBER 1972

Section D
Chart D5

i WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy, adj. --1

One-quarter span (ann. rate) /

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries+15.3?
ra

+,0r

748. First year avg. cnanges, u (ann. rate)
749. Average changes over ife of contract, Q (ann. rate)

+5 J

| 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy,!
+10 n

+5-

0-1

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Udjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

ltd*

 OCTOBER 1972


59

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.


60


OCTOBER 1972

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart El

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

840-t
820800780760740720700-

Gross National Product in 1058 i

680660640620-

206. Potential GNP1

\

600580-

295. Actual GNP

560540520500480460-

440-

420-

400-

380-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to3rd quarter 1972.

 OCTOBER 1972


61

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

852. Ratio, unfitted orders to shipments.
manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio

2.5-

853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
(index: 1967-100)

2.0-<
908070J
0.101

854. Ratio, personal saving to Disposable personal income, Q (ratio)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 96.

62




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span---)

D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—•}

17 industries (3-Q span*^,, 1-Q sparw.)

Oil. Newly approved caprtal

181. Profits, FNCB of Nf^ficent reporting N|l|fcpraffis--al)out 1,000 manufacturing corporations fl-Q spar)

industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)

D19. Stock prices, 500

023. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-

mf Initial claims, State uneiffloptent insurance-41 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-H

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.

P OCTOBER 1972




63

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)

D47, lBdustri|^(tacttoii-24 industries (6-rao, span—, 1-rno. span—

JJJ58, Wholesale pric^^ifactiimd good^|»i*istrtes (6-mo. span-1 UN. span

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 98.

64




OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

Section E

E5

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
RATES OF CHANGE

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

Percent change, annual rate
200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)

205. (c) GNP in constant dollars 114 span)

^=wS^r

^S\

M

+10-

+ 50-5-

-10-

820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)

48. Man-hours In non agricultural establishments
+10-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 119, 120, and 121=

KCII

 OCTOBER 1972


65

Section

F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

CONSUMER PRICES

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1950 51

52

53

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 103.

66




OCTOBER

1972

IICII

Section F
Chart

F2

IN'fcrfNAT

'• «U , 0 - -

| INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.

BCII

 OCTOBER 1972


67

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

- -S2

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 104.

68



OCTOBER

1972

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars

200. Current dollars

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

a. Total

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

907.0
923.5
941.7
948.9

+16.8
+16.5
+18.2
+7.2

+7.7
+7.5
+8.2
+3.1

722.4
725.8
729.2
725.1

+5.9
+3.4
+3.4
-4.1

+3.4
+1.9
+1.9
-2.3

125.6
127.2
129.1
130.9

+1.3
+1.6
+1.9
+1.8

+4.2
+5.5
+6.1
+5.5

958.0
971.7
986.3
989.7

+9.1
+13-7
+14.6
+3.4

+3.9
+5.9
+6.1
+1.4

720.4
723.2
726.8
718.0

-4.7
+2.8
+3.6

-2.5
+1.5
+2.0
-4.8

133.0
134-4
135.7
137.8

+2.1
+1.4
+1.3
+2.1

+6.5
+4-3
+4.0
+6.5

1,023.4
1,043.0
1,056.9
1,078.1

+33.7
+19.6
+13-9
+21.2

+14-3
+7.9
+5.4
+8.3

731.9
737.9
742.5
754.5

+13.9
+6.0
+4.6
+12.0

+8.0
+3-4
+2.5
+6.7

139.8
141.3
142.4
142.9

+2.0
+1.5
+1.1
+0.5

+5.9
+4.4
+2.9
+1.5

1,109.1
1,139.4
pi,162.2

+31.0
^30.3
p+22.8

+12.0
+11.4
p+ 8.3

766.5
783.9
P795.3

+12.0
+17.4
p+11.4

+6.5
+9.4
P+5.9

144.7
145.3
PH6.1

+1.8
+0.7

+5.1
+1.8
p+2.2

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

222. Personal
income in current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

4,491
4,562
4,639
4,661

3,577
3,586
3,592
3,562

746.6
761.9
774-6
781.0

726.5
743.3
759.6
774.3

612.5
625.7
643.2
656.1

505.5
510.0
517.3
521.2

3,033
3,091
3,169
3,223

2,503
2,520
2,549
2,560

4,694
4,749
4,807
4,809

3,530
3,535
3,542
3,489

787.5
796.7
806.3
804.1

785.7
806.1
813.4
819.8

667.9
687.2
699.1
704.0

524.2
534-2
538.9
535.4

3,273
3,359
3,407
3,421

2,569
2,611
2,626
2,602

4,960
5,043
5,098
5,187

3,548
3,568
3,582
3,630

834.5
851.4
860.8
876.2

838.0
858.1
867.9
881.5

725.7
742.9
750.4
758.5

546.6
554.6
556.5
560.9

3,517
3,592
3,620
3,649

2,650
2,682
2,684
2,698

5,326
5,461
P5,559

3,681
3,757
P3,804

903.1
922.1
(NA)

907.0
922.1
P939.5

770.5
782.6
P798.7

565.7
571.4
P579.9

3,700
3,751
P3,821

2,716
2,739
P2,774

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; up", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 65-

IICII

 OCTOBER 1972


69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter

230. Total in
current dollars

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
564.0
575.8
583.7
594.4

465.5
469.3
469.5
472.2

90.2
91.0
90.6
91.4

58.4
59.6
58.8
59.5

31.8
31.4
31.8
31.9

240.2
245.1
247.3
251.1

233.7
239.6
245.8
251.9

604.1
613.4
623.0
626.5

474.1
476.9
480.2
476.5

90..2
91.6
92.6
87.5

61.3
61.6
62.9
64.1

28.9
30.0
29.7
23.4

257.8
262.4
266.3
271.3

256.1
259.4
264.1
267.7

648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5

488.2
493.0
497.4
503.2

99.8
101.9
106.1
106.1

65.5
67.6
69.0
70.2

34.3
34-3
37.1
35.9

273.4
277.2
278,
283,

274.8
281.3
286.1
290.9

696.1
713.4
P728.1

511.0
520.9
P528.7

111.0
113.9
pl!8.4

74.1
75.7
P77.1

36.9
38.2
P41.3

288.3
297.2
P301.4

296.7
302.4
P308.3

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

240. Total

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
biLdoU)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

135.6
138.6
143.8
137.9

+6.9

95.5
96.9

32.4
33.4
35.4
35.8

63.1
63.5
64.8
65.7

33.1
33.5
33.0
30.9

+8.1
+10.6
+5.5

132.9
137.7
139.9
137.8

100.2
101.7

103^4
98.5

35.5
36.1
36.2
36.3

64.8
65.6
67.2
62.1

31.2
29.7
30.3
33.6

+1.5
+6.3
+6.2
+5.7

143.9
153.0
152.2
158.8

101.9
105.0
106.3
109.8

37.6
38.3
38.7
38.8

64.3
66.7
67.6
71.0

37.0
41.4
44-5
47.3

+4.9
+6.6
+1.3
+1.7

168.1
177.0
P181.0

116.1
119.2
P121.1

41.3
42.0
P41.6

74.8
77.2
P79.4

51.6
52.8
P54.2

+0.4
+5.0
p+5.7

100.2
101.4

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12*

70




OCTOBER 1972

IICII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

H

Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

250. Net exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

252. Exports
of goods and
services

253. Imports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

260. Total

264. National
defense

262. Federal

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969

First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970

+1.2
+1.1
+2.6
+2.7

47.9
56.8
58.1
59.2

46.6
55.8
55.5
56.5

206.2
208.1
211.6
214.0

98.8
97.6
99.3
99.4

78.0
77.3
79.4
78.9

107.4
110.4
112.3
114.6

First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971

+3.6
+3.9
+4.0
+2.8

61.5
63.0
63.7
63.2

57.9
59.2
59.8
60.4

217.3
216.7
219.5
222.6

99.7
96.2
95.2
95.0

78.9
74.7
73.8
72.9

117.6
120.5
124.3
127.6

First quarter
Second quarter. ....

+4.5
+0.1
+0.4
-2.1

66.3
66.7
68.5
63.0

61.8
66.6
68.2
65.1

227.0
229.5
233.6
240.9

96.2
96.3
97.9

72.5
71.2
70.1
71.9

130.8
133.3
135.7
140.2

-4.6
-5.2
P-3.4

70.7
70.0
P75.0

75.3
75.2
P78.4

249.4
254.1
p256.6

76.7
78.6
P75.2

143.7
146.0

Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

p!06.2

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

P150.4

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income

Nondurable goods

271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)

105.7
108.1

H

Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

100.7

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

284. Rental income
of persons

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969

181.1
180.3
183.0
184.7

+3.9
+5.9
+6.5
+3.7

260.7
266.8
268.8
273.3

+3.0
+2.2
+4.1
+1.9

545.6
559.2
574.0
585.2

67.1
67.4
67.1
67.2

22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971

184.4
185.2
187.4
174-8

+1.0
+1.6
+6.0
-0.9

277.8
282.1
285.2
290.7

+0.5
+4.7
+0.2
+6.6

594-3
600.7
609.0
611.2

67.7
67.1
66.6
65.8

23.0
23.2
23.4
23.8

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972

189.6
191.0
197.7
200.1

+3.7
+3.6
-1.0
-1.9

292.6
294-8
298.5
303.0

+1.2
+3-1
+2.3
+3.5

628.6
639.6
648.0
660.4

68.1
69.3
70.7
71.8

23.9
24.4
24.8
25.0

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

208.8
214.6
P220.7

+0.4
+3.0
P+1.5

308.4
317.5
P322.4

0.0
+2.1
P+4.1

682.7
697.8
P709.7

73.3
73.2
P75.3

25.2
24.2
p26.2

Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1970

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification onlyjnd do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates re vised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16.

It


OCTOBER 1972


71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

83.0
82.8
79.8
73.5

28.9
30.0
31.1
32.3

138.1
143.1
149.0
145.5

32.4
33.3
42.6

17.5
17.3
16.4
10.3

78.8
80.8
82.6
84.1

+9.5
+11.7
+7.5
+6.5

69.3
71.5
72.0
66.9

33.2
34.2
35.3
36.5

141.3
144.3
144.5
138.2

46.3
55.9
58.0
59.2

10.2
12.1
11.7
9.9

85.1
85.8
86.6
87.9

-0.2
-9.6
-11.8
-18.8

76.6
80.1
78.3
79.4

37.3
38.1
39.1
39.7

148.5
154-8
154.6
157.8

59.3
64.1
61.0
59.3

13.0
16.0
15.2
18.8

90.2
92.4
95.0
97.4

-14.0
-18.0
-16.9
-18.7

81.8
86,1
(NA)

40.1
40.9
P41.7

163.9
168.0
(NA)

55.7
50.1
P51.3

17.0
19.8
(NA)

99.7
105.3
p!04.1

-7.7
-6.9
(NA)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter..,
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

261. Government
purchases of goods
and services, total,
constant(1958)
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

716.5
719.0
719.8
720.4

+6.0
+6.8
+9-4
+4.6

79.2
79.3
80.9
80.9

24.5
24.6
23.7
21.9

37.2
33.3
36.3
33.2

147.4
146.3
145.1
144.6

719.5
717.5
721.9
713.2

+0.9
+5.6
+4-9
+4.8

78.8
78.9
79.3
73.6

22.2
21.1
22.0
23.9

29.2
32.8
31.6
20.0

142.4
138.6
137.5
137.3

728.1
732.6
741.7
753.8

+3.8
+5.3
+0.7
+0.7

75.3
76.4
76.4
79.2

25.9
28.3
30.1
32.1

37.1
34.8
37.8
35.8

136.1
135.7
137.6
141.1

766.3
780.0
P790.8

+0.3
+3.9
P+4-5

82.2
83.6
P84-4

34-2
34.4
P35.0

35.6
37.0
P39.6

142.2
143.9
PU3.6

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Th-rd quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.




72

OCTOBER

1972

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter

Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
(Percent)

244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)

241A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
(Percent)

262A. Federal
266A. State and local
Govt. purchases of Govt. purchases of
goods and services goods and services

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

245A. Change
in business
inventories
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

62.2
62.3
62.0
62.6

10.5
10.5
10.6
10.7

3.6
3.6
3.5
3.3

+0.8
+0.9
+1.1
+0.6

+0.1
+0.1
+0.3
+0.3

10.9
10.6
10.5
10.5

11.8
12.0
11.9
12.1

63.1
63.1
63.2
63.3

10.5
10.5
10.5
10.0

3.3
3.1
3.1
3.4

+0.2
+0.6
+0.6
+0.6

+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3

10.4

9.9
9.7
9.6

12.3
12.4
12.6
12.9

63.3
63.3
63.5
63.1

10.0
10.1
10.1
10.2

3.6
4.0
4.2
4.4

+0.5
+0.6
+0.1
+0.2

+0.4

9.4
9.2
9.3
9.3

12.8
12.8
12.8
13.0

62.8
62.6
P62.6

10.5
10.5
plO.4

4.7
4.6
P4-7

+0.0
+0.4
P+0.5

-0.4
-0-5
p-0.3

9.5
9.5

13.0
12.8

P9-1

p!2.9

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

0.0
0.0
-0.2

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME--Con.

Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)

284A. Rental income
of persons

282A. Proprietors'
income
(Percent)

(Percent)

286A. Corporate profits and 288A. Net interest
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)

(Percent)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

9.4

3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1

2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0

8.8
9.0
8.9
8.3

4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5

73.1
73.4
74.1
74.9

2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9

75.5
75.4
75.5
76.0

11.1
10.9

10.3

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

75.3
75.1
75.3
75.4

8.2
8.1
8.2
8.2

2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9

9.2
9.4
9.1
9.1

4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5

75.6
75.7
(NA)

8.1
7.9
(NA)

2.8
2.6
(NA)

9.1
9.3

4.4

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter..

(NA)

4.4

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown atthe back of the book. The V indicates revised,"r/f preliminary;
*e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

ItCII

 OCTOBER 1972


73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Job Vacancies

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

*L Average
workweek of
jroduction workers,
manufacturing

Year
and
month

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

(Hours)

(Hours)
Revised2

1970
January
February
March

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing

3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
manufacturing
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programsI
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)

3.3

4.3
4.4
4.2

232
250

40.1

3.2
3.2

April
May
June

40.0
39.8
39.9

3.0
3.0
3.0

July
August
September . . .

40.1
39.8
39.4

October
November
December

39.5
39.6
39.6

1971
January
February
March. . .

39.9
39.7
39.8

April
May
June

39.8
40.0
40.0

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

(Thous.)

(1967=100)

263

1.5
1.6
1.7

202
185
168

109
109
103

4.0
4.1
4.0

326
313
303

2.0
1.8
1.9

150
140
130

99
95
92

3.0
2.9
2.8

4.1
4.1
3.8

265
288
338

1.6
1.8
1.9

123
113
103

91
89
85

2.8
2.7
2.7

3.6
3.7
3.8

341
338
297

2.1
2.0
1.8

94
87
90

77
78
80

2.8

3.8
3.7
3.9

289
283
293

1.7
1.5
1.5

88
87
84

75
77
78

2.9

4.0
3.8
3.7

281
292
296

1.6
1.5
1.5

89
87
94

78
79
83

40.0
39.8
39.6

3.0
2.9
2.8

3.7
4.2
3.9

280
312
312

1.5
1.9
1.7

83
87
86

85
85
80

39.9
40.1
40.2

3.0
3.0
3.1

3.6
4.1
3.9

302
293
270

1.4
1.4
1.4

91
90
92

80
81
85

40.1
40.4
40.4

2.9
3.2
3.3

4-4
4.5
4«5

261
257
259

1.3
1.2
1.2

97
106
112

85
87
90

r3.5
r3.4

/./
4.7
3.9

257
263
294

1.2
1.0
1.4

118
118
131

93
93
96

40.1

..

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper

f)

40.3

July .
August
September

50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg.

D ^°-8
40.5
40.7

r2.9
r2.8

2.9
r2.9

3.4

40 6
40 6

1 L

/ 1

1 L

[US
r>/ 7r
J1/P4-.

•n/ 0 7

fu\
n^ • 52
ITT/ P-?

(m)

9A/

fuS 23?
[n/
<-jj
r>2SO

rl 2

irn
J.U.?

[uN-p-i qi

fo\ TI~] n

r>l 3D

^m?

(TWO

[ON TfiA
•nQQ
P77

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 39«
-"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

74




OCTOBER

1972

BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Comprehensive Employment

48. Man-hours
n nonagricultural
establishments

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force surveyI
(Thous.)

40. Unemployment rate,
married males 1

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs 2

*43. Unemployment rate, total I

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15 1 3
weeks and over

4

4

1970

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

Revised

Revised

1.8

January
February
March.
.

139.26
139.47
139.48

70,875
71,007
71,081

75,428
75,294
75,494

3.9
4.2
4.4

2.5
2.6
2.7

2.2

0.5
0.6
0.7

April
May
June

139.14
138.31
138.04

71,007
70,730
70,574

75,353
74,969
74,865

4.7
4.8
4.8

3.1
3.5
3.7

2.3
2.5
2.6

0.7
0.7
0.8

July
August
September

138.24
137.87
137.01

70,612
70,472
70,499

75,125
75,092
75,010

5.0
5.1
5.4

3.5
3.7
4.3

2.7
2.8
2.9

0.8
0.9
1.0

October
November
December

136.50
136.28
137.03

70,065
69,968
70,274

75,338
75,162
75,032

5.5
5.8
6.1

4-4
4-4
4.0

3.0
3.2
3.3

0.9
1.1
1.3

January
February
March

137.23
136.39
137.03

70,331
70,266
70,299

75,312
75,190
75,059

6.0
5.9
6.0

3.7
3.7
3.8

3.3
3.2
3.2

1.3
1.3
1.3

April
June. .

137.22
137.72
137.84

70,461
70,643
70,574

75,192
75,418
75,299

6.0
6.1
5.8

3.9
4.3
4.3

3.2
3.2
3.1

1.3
1.4
1.4

July
August
September

137.58
137.53
137.58

70,532
70,548
70,843

75,640
75,792
76,088

5.9
6.1
6.0

4.0
4.1
4.6

3.1
3.2
3.3

1.5
1.5
1.5

October
November
December

138.18
139.02
139.38

70,861
71,103
71,291

76,416
76,601
76,698

5.8
6.0
6.0

4.4
4.1
3.8

3.0
3.3
3.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

January
February
March

139.73
140.40
140.7?

71,552
71,744
72,011

77,243
77,266
77,759

5.9
5.7
5.9

3.4
3.4
3.5

3.0
2.8
2.8

1.4
1.5
1.4

April
May
June

141.72
142*04
142.59

72 246
72,592
72 699

77,881
78,041

5.9

3.5

*5 9

2.9
2.9

•70 o on

c

1 A
3 .0/1

1.3
l/
1.3

July
August
September

1 / 9 OQ
-|/o cc>
J-4XOO

T) AAl

2.0

1971

May

1972

[H)pl43 . o^
FLEX-TO / 7

(^>

•70
72 ,oftn
you
IH/P (} , <^-L
rrj\r.7q OOT

78,237
78,348
|H)78 , 647

5.5

X

3 .6

5.5
5.6

E> 3.3

1H>5.5

3.4

2.9
2.7
D2.6

2.8

1.3
1.4
1.3

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
EDSeries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, 41, and 42. Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency, ^o current high. 4See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

IICII

OCTOBER 1972



75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

Q| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

....

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Production

Comprehensive Income

*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of
*52. Personal
:ional product tional product
ndustrial pro- income
n current dol- in 1958 dollars duction
ars

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- :uring and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
(Mil.dol.)
bil.dol.)

57. Final sales
Sales of retail stores
(series 200
minus series *54. Current
59. Deflated
245)
dollar sales
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Ann. rate,
(Mil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

1970

January
February
March

958!6

720.4-

r!07.8
rl08.2
rlOS.l

781.2
784.7
791.2

198.1
197.6
199.6

103,841
104,395
103,962

956.4

30,334
30,669
30,695

27,230
27,383
27,357

April
May
June

971.7

723! 2

r!07.7
r!07.7
r!07.9

810.0
804.4
804.0

198.7
197.3
197.6

103,201
104,731
105,073

965.5

31,005
31,198
31,293

27,511
27,584
27,620

July
August
September

986*. 3

726.8

r!07.6
r!07.5
r!06.3

808.0
812.9
819.2

198.7
199.0
198.6

105,470
105,800
105,438

980.2

31,601
31,710
31,951

27,818
27,889
27,978

October
November
December

989 '.7

718.0

r!03.7
r!02.8
rl04.9

816.7
818.3
824.4

193.8
193.7
197.8

103,712
102,466
104,998

984.1

31,621
31,282
31,761

27,568
27,202
27,499

1971

January
February
March

1,023! 4

731.9

r!05.5
r!06.0
r!06.0

833.9
837.3
842.9

198.9
199.0
199.5

106,767
108,201
109,752

1,018.' 5

32,290
32,850
33,274

27,933
28,368
28,610

April
May
June

1,043!6

737! 9

r!06.5
r!07.4
r!07.4

847.4
853.4
873.4

200.7
202.8
202.9

110,453
111,458
112,647

l,036!i

33,578
33,502
33,827

28,798
28,585
28,740

July
August
September

1,056.9

742.5

106.8
105.6
107.1

862.4
8.69.1
872.2

202.0
202.0
203.5

111,791
113,910
113,450

1,055*.6

33,688
34,655
35,219

28,573
29,344
29,796

October
November
December

1,078.1

754.5

106.8
107.4
108.1

874.8
879.4
890.4

204.4
205.3
209.2

113,191
115, 757
115, 630

1,076.4

34,964
35,574
34,896

29,555
30,020
29,374

l,109".i

766 '.5

108.7
110,0
111,2

898.9
908.5
913.6

211.2
214.1
216.4

118,426
118,077
120, 669

1,108.6

34,886
35,345
36,450

29,341
29,503
30,400

1,139.4-

783! 9

112.8
113.2
113.4

919.4
924.0
922.9

218.1
218.8
219.9

121,676
122, 793
122,263

36,287
37,120
36,802

30,264
30,856
30,541

113.7

932.9
r940.0

218.8
221.7
DP223.7

r37,342
H>r37,843
p37,297

r30,86l
I>r31,l98
p30,546

1972

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

....
. ...

fi)pl,l62.2

[H>P795!3

rll4-5
E>PH5.2

1,134.* 4
•..

r!23,605
[H>pl26,l89 E>pl,156!6
(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by jj); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
EDSeries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graph of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 41.

76




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Hi

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

^^^

FOrma

B SineSS
En?enrD°ris
es
P

New lnvestment

*12. Index of net 13. Number of
3usiness
new business
formation
incorporations

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

(Number)

(Bil. dol.)

(1967=100)

8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

* 10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment

(1967=100)

(Bil. dol.)

Commitments

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Bil. dol.)

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)

1970
January
February . . . .
March

114.5
114.2
110.7

22,196
22,968
21,181

26.48
27.33
26.80

131
137
132

8.98
8.89
8.04

6^68

6.76
7.13
6.52

88.86
80.95
67.11

April ..
May
June

109.7
107.8
107.0

21,745
22,046
21,984

26.98
27.88
27.91

130
110
120

8.83
8.32
8,04

6.48

6.68
7.09
6.66

64.00
58.19
54.47

July
August
September

106.1
105.2
105.4

21,896
21,841
22,194

28.03
27.84
27.23

116
135
118

8.40
8.08
7.91

6.32

6.95
6.67
6.66

70.45
61.04
60.16

October
November
December

106.0
105.7
104.8

21,604
22,381
22,071

25.74
25.75
28.26

115
130
132

7.79
7.91
8.82

5.86

6.64
6.48
7,43

51.71
54.00
54.69

January
February
March

105.8
105.4
108.7

22,338
20,923
23,220

29.08
29.25
29.57

124
126
142

8.18
8.23
8.61

5^74

6.88
6.81
7.12

54.37
50.04
65.44

April .
May .
June

108.8
109.9
111.9

22,770
24,168
24,691

28.75
28.97
28.97

161
141
147

9.07
8.72
8.98

5^49

7.01
7.26
7.52

54.82
63.40
62.83

July
August
September

112.3
112.8
111.8

25,073
25,142
23,278

29.49
31.34
29.65

151
153
154

8.55
9.15
8.95

5.*89

7.21
7.49
7.47

60.67
54.82
70.72

October
November
December

114.7
116.7
115.6

25,050
25,828
25,529

30.32
31.29
31.00

137
155
160

9.36
9.52
9.48

7.86

5.93

7.93
8.13

61.75
68.70
66.69

114.7
113.9
116.7

24,685
24,743
E> 27,399

32.55
32.47
33.33

165
155
159

9.50
9.22
9,96

6*57

8.17
8,20
8.53

59*65
66.72
66.68

ril7.6
(H>rll8.8
rl!7.8

r26,372
r26,396
r26,277

34.00
34.30
35.61

167
165
154

10.68
10. &,
10.60

(H)p6.85

8.78
9.04

65.53
H>81.95
70.51

118.1
el!7.8
(NA)

26,893
(NA)

34.66
r35-96
[fi>P36.60

155
180
E>187

1971

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

D9.23

10.65

no. 53
[fi>pll.H

9.10

(NA)

r9.21

P9.22

67.74
75.65
74.69

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). ' Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).

KCII

OCTOBER 1972



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

....

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

H

Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT

LEADING INDICATORS--Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Investment Expenditures

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

28. New private *29. Index of
lousing units new private
started, total
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967=100)

96. Manufactur- 97. Backlog of
capital approers' unfilled
orders, durable priations, manufacturing1 2
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

69. Machinery 245. Change
and equipment in business
sales and busi- inventories
ness construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)

1970
January
February
March

1,109
1,322
1,364

93.1
98.0
99,2

80.27
79.11
77.89

23 '..24

April
May
June

1,230
1,280
1,396

107.3
116,4
115.9

76.93
76.26
75.71

22.60

July
August
September

1,506
1,401
1,531

116.0
122.2
125.0

75.02
73.97
72.97

2l! 81

October
November
December

1,589
1,621
1,943

137.1
131.6
154.9

71.72
70.93
71.36

20'.96

1,810
1,793
1,938

r!46.2
r!37.8
rl50.9

71.94
72.22
72.16

*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Reviseds

(Percent
reporting)

78.22

103.88
106.24
104.39

+i.*5

+2.7
+13.8
+6.6

50
50
51

80 !22

105.47
106.21
102.87

+6.3

+13.6
-1.1
+12.3

45
40
46

105.37
104.87
102.20

+6.2

D+15.2
+9.0
+6.0

46
44
47

78.63

101.33
101.41
102.68

+5.7

+2.6
+11.2
+6.8

46
47
44

79^32

102.29
102.52
104.72

+4*9

+9.6
+8.8
+11.0

46
49
51

8l!6l

103.33
105.51
107.28

E>+6!6

+7.8
+9.5
+3.9

57
55
58

80.75

105.35
106.45
109.56

+10

+5.5
+8.2
+12.4.

59
51
41

83^18

110.00
110.78
116.21

+1.7

+5.0
+1.3
+11.9

39
42
49

86! 79

118.98
116.10
118.89

+0.4

+5.5
+6.3
+5.2

49
52
51

E>87.'i2

120.95
123.18
123.42

+5.6

+6.6
+13.6
+5.8

52
52
47

p+5.7

+5.3
p+12.6
(NA)

44
56
E)59

8l!88
•• .

1971
January
February
March

20 .*38

April
May
June

1,951
2,046
2,008

r!50.8
r!72.7
rl67.7

71.40
70.38
68.98

July
August
September

2,091
2,219
2,029

r!82.2
r!79.3
r!74-l

68.67
69.17
69.02

2,038
2,227
2,457

r!77.7
r!83.3
r!92.0

69.31
69.81
69,90

2,487
1)2,682
2,369

193.2
180. 2
175.9

70.49
70.92
71.56

19*.66

174.5
171.3
185.9

71.98
72.58
75.06

• ••
p20.58

October
November
December

19.' 64

19^46

19 '.06

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December

2,109
2,350
2,330

r2,2!8
r2,453
p2,352

184.8
r!96.1
DP197.4

75.67
r76.69
P78.23

a90.38

r!21.70
[H>pl24.50
(NA)

(NA)

a91.84

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 28, 39, 40, and 42.
1
This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not "be reproduced without written permission from the Conference
2
Board.
No current high. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

78




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

H| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

Inventories

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Ann. rate,
(Percent
reporting)
bil.dol.)

20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories ofmtls.
and supplies

IH PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®

25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

(Percent
reporting)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Com- Stock Prices
modity Prices

Profits and Profit Margins

*23. Index of *19. Index of
stock prices,
industrial
materials
500 common
stocks®
prices®

Corporate profits after
taxes

(1967=100)

(1941-43=10)

16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Revised1

1970
January
February
March

-l.l
+3.4
+1.1

61
62
56

56
58
50

-2.10
-1.16
-1.23

166.92
168.07
168.63

31.43
31.72
31.95

118.9
119.5
118.7

88.65

April ..
May
June

-1.2
-1.6
-0.3

60
57
55

52
72
69

-0.96
-0.67
-0.55

169.76
169.67
170.70

32.52
32.54
32.75

118.2
117.5
114.8

July
August
September

+0.3
+1.5
+1.1

52
50
52

50
45
45

-0.70
-1.05
-1.00

171.97
172.72
173.22

33.05
33.21
33.39

October
November
December

+2.2
+2.6
+1.2

54
54
52

38
36
36

-1.25
-0.80

173.44
174.37
174.94

January
February
March

+0.3
0.0
-1.6

52
H>59
56

38
44
46

+0.58
+0.28

April
May
June

+4.2
+2.7
+2.3

57
55
58

July
August
September

+2.1
-1.7
-3.7

October
November
December

90.31
87.16

41-4

32.5

85.95
76.06
75.59

40.6

31.5

112.4
111.2
110.5

75.72
77.92
82.58

41.2

31.7

33.66
33.96
33.91

109.5
108.8
106.4

84.37
84.28
90.05

37.*4

2B.3

34.18
34.22
34-41

105.9
107.2
107.8

93.49
43*2

32.3

-0.06

175.74
176.47
177.39

52
53
50

-0.77
-1.02
-1.40

178.04
178.83
179.16

34.14
34.13
34.02

110.2
108.6
106.1

103.04
101.64
99.72

45.8

33*8

57
55
52

48
49
48

-0.31

33.76
33.80
33.98

104.7
106.1
107.5

99.00
97.24
99.40

46.*6

34-'l

-0.15

179.61
180.30
181.33

0.0
-0.3
+1.1

51
50
45

50
48
51

+0.29
+0.50
+0.09

181.75
181.85
182.84

34.26
34.15
34.01

107.4
106.9
106.8

97.29
92.78

48.0

35*1

99.17

January
February
March

-0.1
+1.1
-3.7

53
55
56

52
52
58

+0.59
+0.42
+0.64

183.30
183.83
184.26

33.92
33.98
34.22

110.7
113.0
117.2

103.30
105.24
107.69

49^5

35*7

April
May
June

-0.1
+0.3
-0.2

51
56
56

58
60
60

+0.42
+0.60
D +2.48

184.82
185.95
186.44

34.29
34.42
34.67

119.5
124.3
123.8

108.81
107.65
108.01

D+5.0
p+4.0

54
57
56

63
63

+0.60
186.88
r+1.02 0)P187.93
(NA)
p+1.55

34.82
H>p35.10
(NA)

123.7
124.6
0)124.8

107.21
i>111.01
109.39

+0.44

1971

+0.50

97.11

99.60

1972

July
August
September
October
November
December

(NA)

0)65

2

127.7

3

D 51." 5

(NA)

D 36.9

(NA)

109. 26

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E).' Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 30, 40, and 42.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This I Ensue," page ill.
2
Average for October 3, 10, and 17. 3 Average for October 4, 11, and 18.
OCTOBER 1972



79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

M PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio,
)rofits to
ncome
orig.r corp.,
all indus.

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar, of
sales, all
mfg. corp.

(Percent)

(Cents)

Cash Flow

*17. Ratio,
price to unit Net cash flow, corporate
labor cost
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant
dollars
(1958) dol.
(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Unit Labor Costs

Unit labor cost, total
58. Index of
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
63c. Change
63. Index
goods ©
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
percent)

55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
industrial
commod.®

Revised1

1970
January
February
March

£L4

4.1

r96.7
r97.3
r97.2

71.0

55^8

108.3
108.7
108.9

108.8
109.1
109.3

118 .*2

April
May
June

B.3

4.2

r96.7
r97.0
r97.3

70.6

54.8

109.3
109.7
109.8

109.6
109.7
110.0

118 ! 7

July
August
September

8.3

4.0

r96.6
r97.1
r96.0

n.6

54.9

110.0
110.2
110.4

110.6
110.6
110.8

119.4

October
November
December

7.5

'3.6

r96.3
r96.1
r96.7

68^8

51^4

111.3
111.3
111.7

111.2
111.2
111.2

123.! 5

January
February
March

B.5

4^0

r96.5
r96.7
r96.9

75.2

55.5

112.2
112.5
112.8

111.8
112.4
112.7

122! 6

April
May
June

8.5

4^3

r97.2
97.4
97.6

79.8

58.0

113.3
113.7
113.9

113.0
113.5
113.8

123.! 2

July
August
September

8*.9

l\2

97.7
97.7
98.4

82.3

59*1

114.5
115.1
115.0

114.5
114.9
114.7

123*. 9

8.7

4.0

98.2
98.2
97.8

85.7

6l!s

115.0
114.9
115.3

114.5
114-5
115.1

124.2

9.0

4.1

97.8
97.4
98.1

88*.2

62.4

115.9
116.5
116.8

115.7
116.5
116.7

!>125!7

D4.3

98.2
98.4
r98.1

D 93,3

D 65.4

117.3
117.6
117.9

116:9
117.4
117.8

125*. 5

118.1
118.5
0)118.7

118.3
118.5
EXL18.8

p!25!6

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.

*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.

(Dollars)

(1967=100)

0.800

rl!2.5
rill. 8
rl!2.2

0.804

rl!3.2
rl!3.2
rl!3.0

Revised1
8.3

1.6

rll4.2

2.4

0.812

r 114.0

r!15.5
7.4

0.831

rl!5.5
rl!5.9
rl!5.2

0.826

rll6.0
rll6.1
rll6.2

1971

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June

....

July
August
September

D %i

(NA)

(NA)

r98.5
S)r98.9
P98.8

(NA)

(NA)

1.7

rl!6.1

3.9

0.831

116.6
116.5

0.834

117.0
118.0
116.6

0.836

116.7
116.9
117.9

DO. 842

118.4
119.5
118.8

2.6

1.0

D4.6

--0.6

118.9
119.3

0.841

r!20.0
pO.5

(NA)

rl!9.8
r!20.2
B)pl20.5

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
ar)d "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32, 40, and 42.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

80




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

UJ MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Flows of Money and Credit

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
percent)

1970
January
February
March

102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)

103. Change in
money sup, plus
timedep.at
banks and nonbank inst.(MS)
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Credit Difficulties

112. Change
33. Net change *113. Net
change in con- in business
in mortgage
debt he Id byf in. sumer install- loans
instand life in- ment debt
surancex
(Ann, rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures©

(Mil. dol.)

+10.60
-4.67
+11.72

+5.27
-3.40
+9.29

+3.06
-2.24
+7.13

+18.64
+15.71
+15.37

+4.56
+5.02
+2.38

-1.92
+12.29
+2.80

80,076

137.28
139.39
120.02

April
May
June

+9.29
+4.03
+2.30

+10.76
+7.01
+5.75

+9.32
+6.64
+5.80

+15.68
+18.44
+19.03

+3.55
+4.98
+5.29

+3.70
+5.65
+2.15

91,124

131.90
147.89
170.50

July
August
September

+5.16
+7.42
+6.81

+10.85
+11.65
+10.65

+10.75
+10.85
+10.16

+21.78
+20.21
+22.14

+5.32
+2.78
+4.31

+2.15
+7.45
+0.12

84,380

251.92
169.59
232.94

October
November
December

+1.69
+2.82
+6.74

+8.21
+6.70
+11.30

+9.30
+7.69
+11.66

+22.87
+21.59
+24.78

-0.98
-3.62
+0.25

-18.97
-8.00
-4.99

100,284

144.77
119.84
121.72

January
February
March

+2.79
+13.38
+11.02

+14.06
D+20.70
+18.68

+15.52
G> +20.93
+19.28

+23.92
+23.38
+29.89

+1.04
+1.22
+5.94

-3.97
+5.69
+1.70

111,952

168.80
150.90
224.65

April ..
May
June

+8.19
+14.10
+9.12

+12.08
+13.86
+10.75

+15.54
+15.17
+11.98

+30.90
+34.64
+39.96

+7.96
+5.92
+6.30

-8.26
+6.64
-0*18

129,328

153.80
249.49
165.84

July
August
September

+10.11
+3.17
-2.11

+7.46
+2.91
+2.90

+10.47
+6.57
+6.19

+44.58
r+44.27
+40.62

+9.13
+9.92
+11.99

-7.20
+16.03
i> +20.42

H) 147,856

147.03
155.56
115.85

October
November
December

+0.53
0.00
+2.63

+7.11
+6.55
+10.16

+9.07
+8.66
+10.96

+36.94
r+40.08
r+45.90

+11.09
+15.19
+10.80

-5.54
-0.95
-4-58

132,676

144.70
129.00
111.32

+3.16
+12.59
+11.94

+13.43
+14.30
+11.61

+15.37
+16.66
f!3.83

r+34.14
+35.18
+44.89

+7.64
+11.59
+16.37

-8.51
+7.66
+5.03

,133,280

|j>101.62
191.33
220.66

+7.71
+2.55
+5.61

+7.25
+ 7.70
+10.62
+11.26
r+8.00
P+8.43

+10.94
+9.73
+11.54

+45.38
+49.81
Dr+53.48

+13.15
B>+17.29
+15.92

+12.74
+3.05
-10.74

p!36,928

148.47
190.14
127.90

r+13-47
r+10.53
p+10.29

p+50.04
(NA)

+12.32
+17.28
(NA)

-1.09
+13.88
P+15-37

(NA)

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)

liso

1.80
l'.82
l.*88

1.88
1.87

1971

I. SI
1.72

i!si
li?5

1.94
[H>1.68

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June

. . .

July
August
September

D +14-20
r+5.51
p+5.99
2

October .
November
December

+1.24

2

+6. 46

204.62
253.62
113.54

1.73
1.75
1.88
1.92

2

+15.20

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on oaaes 33, 34 and 40.
1

Data include conventional mortgages held "by the Government National Mortgage Association.
Average for weeks ended October 4 and 11.

3

OCTOBER 1972




81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

0 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con,
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Bank
Reserves

93. Free
reserves ®
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)

r
Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages

114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial
bond yields ® bond yields® bond yields ® installment
bill rate ©
and industrial
debt
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
:ommercial
banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)

-799
-819
-781

7.91
7.16
6.71

9.00
8.84
9.00

6.44
6.39

April
May
June

-704
-795
-701

6.48
7.04
6.74

9.09
9.53
9.70

6.53
6.94
6.99

6.50
6.41
6.24

9.09
9.08
9.00

6 57
6 75

5.93
5.29
4.86

4.49
3.77
3.32

-1,217
-682
-335

October
November
December

lnt( rest

Outstanding5 Debt

Money Market Interest Rates

1970
January
. . .
February .
March

July
August
. .
September . . . .

LAGGING INDICATORS

-208
-305

-49

*67. Bank
rates on shortterm business
loans, 35
cities® 1 2

118. Mortgage
yields, residential ®

(Percent)

(Percent)

6 65
6.36
6 03

96 578
96 996
97 194

83 205
84 229
8/ /62

8 86

6.49
7.00
6.96

97 490
97 905
98 346

84 770
8*5 2/1
85 420

8/9

6.63

6 53
6 20
6 25

98 789
99 021
99 380

&Z

9.14
8.97
8.13

6.59
6.24
5.97

6.39
5.93
5.46

99 298
98,996
99,017

g/

7.63
7.54
7.62

5.92
5.84
5.71

5.36
5.23
5.17

99 104
99 206
99,701

83 235
83 709
83,851

6 59

(m\
(m\
1 32

5.75

5.37
5.90
5.95

100,364
100,857
101,382

83 , 163
83 , 716
83 701

6 01

7 37
7 75
7 89

6 51

[g>7 97
7 92
7.84

6 86

fm \

9 29
9 20
9 10
911
9 16

C.QQ

86 220
86 230

911
D7

9

8 50

9 m
a Q7

A/Q

83 982
83 566

8 07

8 90
8 40

1971
January
February
March

-91

....

-127
-120

April
May
June
July
August
September

-8
-18

3.78
4.14
4.70

-322

D-658

H) 5.40

7.76

E>8.25

B)5.96

8.15

5.94

8.24

[R>6.06

102,143
102 , 970
103,969

83,101

5.82
5.37

-606
-295

5.08
4.67

7.90

5.91
5.78
5.56

October
November
December .
1972

-153
-144

4.49
4.19
4.02

7.72
7.67
7.54

5.46
5.48
5.62

5.06
5.20
5.21

104,893
106,159
107,0^9

85,677
85,598
85 , 216

6.18

January
February
March

+153

3.40
3.18
3.72

7.36
7.57
7.53

5.62
5.67
5.66

5.12
5.28

107,696
108,662
110 026

84,507
85,145
85 564

5 5?

3-72
3.65

7.77
7.6l
7.63

5.74
5.6;

5*43
5 30

111 122
-] -i o r£.q
-L-Ui,:?D;5
-j -i o don
llj),o9U

86 626
86 880
#5 9#5

5 59

7.72
7.59

5.59
5.59
5.70

114,917
[H>116,357
(WO

85,894
87,051
[H)p88,332

+58

+91
+134

+27
-15

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

3 87

+110

/ Ob
r\£
4.
4.01
m

CC

— 5j
T»_l #?

1

TV ?AQ

3

-166

4

8.14.

4»O2

7

T~)
. id

/ no
4«
(<•

Siy

XX

(-C

5 59

5.71

5.31

5

3/

5.41
5.30
5.36
4 r

orN

5.20

84.A37
86,139

3

7.75
7.62
7 59

7.49
7.46
7/5

7.50
7 cq
1 *JJ
n ci

1 04

...

5.84

7.54
7.55
7.56

89, 599

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a" r anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36 and 42.
x
No current high. 2The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus, data
4
from that point are not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3Average for weeks ended October 4 and 11.
Average for
5
weeks ended October 5, 12, and 19.
Average for weeks ended October 6, 13,.and 20.

82




OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

R| COMPOSITE INDEXES

830. Six
825. Five
coinciders, es- laggers
timated aggre- (series 44,
gate economic 61, 62, 67,
activity,
71 72) 2
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47, 52D,56D)

810. Twelve
eaders, reverse trend adjusted^series
1.5,6,10, 12,
16, 17, 19, 23,
29,31,113)

311. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
'same components as
in series 810)

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41,43,
47, 52, 56)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1970
January
February
March

116.2
116.5
115.0

103.7
103.7
101.9

121.0
121.2
121.2

115.5
115.4
115.4

131.9
131.4
131.2

98.3
96.6
94.1

108.0
108.4
105.6

April . . .
May . . .
June

114.9
113.8
114.4

101.5
100.1
100.3

121.6
121.0
121.0

115.6
114.7
114.5

131.3
131.0
131.0

93.2
92.9
93.3

July
August
September

116.2
115.2
114.5

101.5
100.2
99.3

120.9
120.8
120.4

114.2
114.1
113.7

131.7
132.3
131.9

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

113.6
113.7
116.0

98.1
97.8
99.5

118.4
117.4
118.9

111.3
110.1
111.3

118.7
120.1
122.6

101.4
102.2
103.9

120.6
121.3
121.9

April
May
June

124.3
125.5
125.5

105.0
105.6
105.2

127.0
127.9
128.5

Year
and
month

July
August.
September

. . .
. .

Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2,
3,5)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)

815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25, 31, 37)
(1967=100) (1967=100)

816. Profitability
(series 16,
17, 19)

}17.
Sensitive
:
inancial flows
series 33, 85,
112, 113)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

103.9
105.4
104.8

96.5
95.8
95.9

99.2
100.0
98.8

106.1
106.3
106.0

104.2
102.4
103.6

95.5
92.8
92.9

100.6
100.5
100.6

94.4
92.9
90.9

106.5
106.3
105.6

104.2
102.5
102.1

93.5
93.6
93.6

101.4
100.1
98.3

130.7
129.3
127.5

89.4
90.4
91.9

105.6
106.2
107.9

101.3
102.6
101.8

93.3
92.0
93.3

93.7
91.4
96.5

112.9
113.4
113.8

125.9
124.2
124.2

93.1
93.7
94.1

108.9
108.6
110.0

102.9
102.3
102.7

95.6
98.1
99.0

98.6
100.4
104-5

122.6
123.6
125.2

114.3
114.8
116.5

123.7
123.4
124.2

94.2
94.1
94.2

109.7
111.5
112.1

103.3
102.6
101.4

100.5
101.1
100.6

106,1
105.4
107.4

106.1
106.4
106.6

124.0
124.1
125.2

113.7
113.7
115.9

124.5125.9
125.9

93.7
93.2
92.6

113.0
114.2
112.8

102.0
102.6
101.3

100.7
100.5
101.7

109.1
110.0
108.6

October
November
December . . .
1972
January
February
March

r!29.7
r!31.5
r!32.6

rl07.1
rl08.2
rl08.7

z-125.5
rl26.6
rl27.6

115.3
116.4
rl!7.3

125.8
rl25.8
z-125.9

93.3
r95.2
r95*4

114-7
116.2
116.0

rlOO,7
100.8
r!02.3

101.3
100.6
101.9

104.6
105.1
104.6

r!33.4
1034.9
r!38.3

1-109.0
rl09.8
rl!2.1

rl29.4
rl30.8
132.2

118.9
1-119.9
121.1

z-125.8
r!25.7
rl26.1

r97.2
r98.1
r98.7

rll6.3
rl!5.2
1-116.9

rl03.1
r!04.0
rl05.1

103.0
103.3
104.7

103.5
108.3
116.8

April
May
June

r!39.8
rl41.9
r!41.8

r 113-0
rll4.2
rl!3 .7

133.5
r!34.7
r!35.3

z-122.2
z-123.2
r!23.7

rl2?.0
rl27-.4
rl28.6

r98.8
99.7
r96.9

118.0
1-118.2
rll9.1

1-105.8
z-107.8
1-107.8.

105.3
105.6
j-105.3

112.8
112.9
rll2.6

rl41.9
rl45.6
JH> 3 H6.2

rl!3.3
rll5.9
H>3115.9

rl36.2
rl37.8
4
D 139.1

1-124.4
1-125.7
E>4126.6

r!29.4
rl30.5
H>Pl32.0

r98.5

rl!8.9
rll9.6
DP120.6

x-105.8
1-108.6
E>P109.6

1-105.6
H>rl07.1
p!06.5

rill. 8

. . . .

July
August
September

">*&?

^K

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for-identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources
are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
Data "beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67).
3
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
2

ItCII

OCTOBER 1972



83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bii. dol.)

412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)

(Percent)

416. Adequacy
435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
ity: percent
sentiment
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966-100)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

72.52
73.9477.8^
77.84

102.7
104.4

78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63

102.3
100.5

79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
86.79

102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3

157.9
158.9
162.5
163.6

92.3
94.0
95.7
97.0

.18
19
22
22

43
38
39
41

95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7

103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6

159.2
158.2
159.4
154.4

98.5
99.6
100.7
101.7

23
23
21
20

38
36
33
33

78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4

101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0

102.6
101.1
102.6

162.0
166.6
167.8
171.1

101.8
101.6
101.4
101.7

19
20
18
16

26
21
20
19

78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2

100.9
104.1

100.4
102.3

178.7
183.9
a!88.8
a!90.8

r!02.5
103.5
a!04.4
a!05.4

12
10
(NA)

24
26

87.5
89.3
94.0

99.5

101.5

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

99.0

103.9

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

99.1

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

87.12
a90.3S
a91.84

(NA)

AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter

420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
in income
income

(Percent)

(Percent)

c. Lower
income

430. Household purchases of new cars

425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income

(Percent)

(Percent)

b. Increase
c. Decrease
less decrease in income
(Percent)

(Percent)

a. Actual
(quarterly)
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)

c. Anticipated
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3

35.4
41.3
40.0
37.3

11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6

16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6

11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6

5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0

7.3
6.9
7.6
6.4

7.3
7.3
7.0
7.0

8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8

111
111
103
111

50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8

35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9

14.1
14.5
12.5
13.6

20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7

13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4

6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3

7.4
8.3
8.1

6.9
7.8
8.2
8.4

7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6

112
103
93
90

51.4
51.0
53.6

35.2
35.7
34.3

12.7
12.5
10.9

17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7

10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0

6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7

8.3

8.5
p8.6
(NA)

8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6

99
P93
(NA)

15.9
16.1
19.9

9.7
9.4
13.5

6.2
6.7
6.4

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

P8.9

(NA)

1973
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; Mp", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43, 44, and 45.

84




OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and

quarter

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries

D440. New orders,
manufacturing1

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1

D444. Net sales, manuD446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1
facturing and trade1
Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

80
84
78
76

86
83

59
60
58
58

60
60
60
59

70
66
70
66

70
66
64
62

74
73
78
76

54
54
51
50

58
56
56
54

63
64
66
70

71
74
80
78

70
72
74
76

78
80
86
84

48
52
53
55

55
58
58
56

74
76
(NA)

76
82
84
83

82
82
(NA)

83
88
90
88

56
58

58
60
61
60

c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span) (1-Q span)

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span) (4-Q span)

41.7

94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6

58.3
63.9
66.7
58.3

81
80
76
72

82
85
83
80

70
74
68
66

78
79
77
76

77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4

69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4

38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0

66
64
60
55

76
71
74
74

61
56
55
56

50.0
61.1
44-4
75.0

33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2

41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0

68
70
70
74

76
78
85
81

44-4
50.0
(NA)

77.8
63.9
88.9

75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0

82
84

82
86

a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)

b. Second
anticipations

83.3
66.7
75.0

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter

D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1

Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
.and trade1

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

71
70
70
68

66
68
66
66

84
84
85
85

66
61
62
58

62
61
64
58

62
62
62
60

62
65
65

D462. Manufacturing1
Actual

D464. Wholesale trade1

D466. Retail trade1

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

78
80
80
81

82
80
82
82

75
79
78
80

85
85
86
85

79
80
80
80

91
90
90
89

84
84
84
86

84
82
82

78
78
80
77

80
78
75

79
76
78
75

87
85
86
84

77
80
82
80

86
86
85
86

80
80
81
80

80
80
71
72

78
78
78
78

74
76
68
70

76
76
75
75

85
86
73
74

80
82
82
82

86
84
73
74

80
80
80

68
72
72
70

80
81

70
78
80
74

73
78
(N/0

67
74
74
74

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

64
66
(NA)

61
66
66
66

74

(Hit

74
75
72

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^•This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun ^ Bradstreet,

Inc.

ICO


OCTOBER 1972


85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

ED

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

(Mil. dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil. dol.)

FOREIGN TRADE

508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts

(1957-59=100)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1970
244

3,375

1,174
1,561
1,578

252
261

3,222
3,279
1 21Q

+14.8
+324
+462

3,410
3,661
3,727

1,493
1,175
1,342

261
264
257

3 262
3 337
3 265

July
August
September

+450
+245

3,704
3,591
3,553

1,258
1,357
1,674

268
259
257

3 2*>A
3 346
3 423

October
November
December

+190

3,688
3,499
3,569

1,384
1,364
1,884

229
241
239

3,498
3,428
3,402

+247

3,733
3,691
3,814

1,518
1,472
rl,469

236
225
234

3 685
3,546
3,568

April
May
June

-220
-212
-350

3,528
3,776
3,662

1,394
1,242
1,503

244
237
246

3,748
3,988
A, 012

July
August
September

-300
-250

+268

3,492
3,678
4,505

1,298
1,450
1,578

239
256
244

3,793
3,928
4,237

October
November
December

-815
-218
-270

2,708
3,160
3,858

1,475
1,281
1,766

248
262
284

3,523
3,379
4,128

January
February
March

-319
-598
-584

4,221
3,806
3,891

1,427
1,372
1,554

290
296
317

4,540
4,403
4,475

April
May
June

-699
-552
-590

3,760
3,914
3,905

1,337
1,340
2,085

339
327
3A3

4,460
4,466
4,495

July
August
September

-542
-463

L 019
4 202
/ 1 C&
4>15o

1 70&

r368

p2 036

r\J 10

i Pol
«cAi
4,
i // /
4,004

INAj

4,671

January
February
March . . . .

+183
+267

3,406
3,546

+156

April
May
June

1971
January . . .
February . . .
March

+130

+71
+168

+48
+145

1972

C~\ "2

— JJ-J

/

\

MA
(NA)

/vr

A\

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.




86

OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter

517. Balance
515. Balance
on goods, services, on current
account
and remittances

250. Balance
on goods and
services

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital

521. Net
liquidity balance

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1©

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revised

1969
307
267
662
671

12
-71
331
332

-332
-592
-40
-76

-264
-2,034
-1,127
407

-1,381
-3,079
-2,074
406

1,330
882
-496
980

34,930
39,043
42,655
41,759

967
989
712

548
588
610
346

133
194
168
-137

-1,251
-605
-347
-856

-1,332
-854
-765
-898

-2,793
-2,065
-1,869
-3,110

42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291

1,136
36
91
-537

781
-333
-311
-941

345
-810
-855
-1,529

-1,279
-2,999
-3,296
-1,802

-2,577
-5,721
-9,380
-4,329

-5,425
-6,466
-11,931
-5,948

45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166

r-1,174
P-1,547
(NA)

r-1,563
p-1,924
(NA)

r-2,164
p-2,442
(NA)

r-3,584
p-1,917
(NA)

r-3,094
p-2,404
(NA)

r-3,256
rp-,863
(NA)

67,165
70,149
(NA)

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil. dol.)

534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2©

(Mil. dol.)

535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights

252. Exports

253- Imports

536. Exports

537. Imports

540. Exports

541. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services

Merchandise, adjusted3

Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

11,968
14,207
14,526
14,800

11,661
13,940
13,864
14,129

7,488
9,484
9,574
9,871

7,576
9,568

9,271
9,381

4,480
4,723
4,952
4,929

4,085
4,372
4,593
4,748

217
217
217
216

15,375
15,762
15,932
15,805

14,477
14,795
14,943
15,093

10,231
10,565
10,705
10,462

9,731
9,831

9,968
10,269

5,144
5,197
5,227
5,343

4,746
4,964
4,975
4,824

14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167

180
179
179
179

16,580
16,675
17,133
15,748

15,444
16,639
17,042
16,285

11,017
10,710
11,479
9,564

10,728
11,722
11,951
11,058

5,563
5,965
5,654

4,716
4,917
5,091

6,184

5,227

12,270
13,339
(NA)

178
p!78
(NA)

r!7,763
p!7,347

r!8,937
pl8,894
(NA)

11,809
rpll,463
(NA)

13,482
rp!3,392

r5,954
p5,884

r5,455
p5,502

16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162

15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964

19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396

17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487

28,960
34,584
45,915
5
51,229

(NA)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimates; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR
indicates Special Drawing Rights. Graphs of these
series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
2
3
-'•Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
^Data for first quarter 1970 through 3d quarter 1971 are not comparable with earlier data. 5See (5) on page 88.

ItCII

 OCTOBER 1972


87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)

Year
and

quarter

542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

Travel

Income on investments

545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad ©
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.doL)

548. Receipts
from
(Mil.dol.)

549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970

2,472
2,586
2,706
2,775

929
1,078
1,2^2
1,315

498
518
519
523

829
853
865
860

407
328
441
336

1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251

1,103
1,291
1,286
1,295

1,129
1,254
1,265
1,322

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850

1,344
1,322
1,284
1,217

556
574
590
599

936
998
1,027
1,012

273
441
329
436

1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203

1,379
1,403
1,445
1,458

1,286
1,385
1,454
1,392

2,937
3,297

3,015
3,651

1,139
1,106
1,304
1,356

589
590
613
665

1,030
1,082
1,053
1,129

510
516
474
423

1,175
1,214
1,198
1,230

1,527
1,562
1,552
1,445

1,372
1,515
1,536
1,512

r3,249
P3,237
(NA)

rl,387
pl,397
(NA)

r653
p6l4
(NA)

rl,l88
pl,236
(NA)

r334
p322
(NA)

rl,2!8
pl,232
(NA)

rl,7!8
Pl,741
(NA)

rl,662
pi,637
(NA)

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)

Securities investments

561. U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565- U.S. purchases
abroad
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)

575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

246
164
152
270

926
999
899
430

1,388
365
396
963

365
499
506
125

-855
-1,337
-1,308
-639

-171
-330
214
-273

491
104
245
190

1,279
1,229
882
1,010

304
374
720
792

210
-93
488
337

-1,243
-340
-900
-1,198

-344
-20
19
29

124
1
-374
181

1,290
1,277
1,410
788

559
196
606
921

361
372
249
-73

-1,270
-1,211
-1,249
-892

-961
-533
-2,067
-1,160

r-360
P346
(NA)

rl,266
p200
(NA)

rl,067
P940
(NA)

r393
P344
(NA)

r-806
p-796
(NA)

r-1,393
P705
(NA)

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and w NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
5
For saries 532, page 87: Data for 4th quarter reflect increases resulting from revaluations under the Smithsonian Agreement
of December 18, 1971, the inclusion of new reporting banks, and the reclassification of certain accounts previously classified as
"official institutions." The figure for the 4th quarter 1971, on the old basis, is $51,806.



OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expend tures
Year
and
month

601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+) or receipts, nadeficit (-), na- tional income
tional income and product
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil.dol.)

1970
January
February
March

264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)

-3*.8

192*.2

195 '.9

78*9

7,045
6,516
6,519

1,807
1,523
1,669

3.45
3.59
3.53

1.38
1,91
1.80

2,855
2,623
2 ',904

April
May
June

-13.4

194*. 2

207 '.5

74*.7

6,643
6,118
6,505

1,559
1,486
1,771

3.37
3.60
3.42

1.80
1,78
1,75

2,591
2,545
2,896

July ..
August.
September

-14*. 7

19o'. 9

205 '.6

73 '.8

7,111
6,035
6,407

1,825
1,332
1,542

4.18
3.67
3.19

2,05
1,78
1,92

2,717
2,782
2,113

October
November
December .

-19.7

189.1

208.8

72*9

6,251
7,166
7,195

1,459
1,902
1,912

3.12
3.81
3.97

1.81
1,67
1,79

3,464
2,746
3,181

-16*. 0

196*.4

212.4

72.5

7,055
6,928
6,793

2,038
2,010
1,528

3.85
3.25
3.28

2-16
2,27
1,68

2,508
2,619
3,398

April
May
June

-23.0

198*. 2

221.2

71.2

6,991
6,257
5,830

1,686
1,457
1,340

3.50
3.23
3.63

1,72
1.55
1,66

2,751
2,112
2,367

July
August
September

-23 '.1

199*. 1

222 '.2

7o'.i

7,960
6,696
5,470

2,577
1,672
1,127

4.25
3.63
3.02

2.04
2,02
1,63

3,082
3,078
2,769

October
November
December

-24*. 7

202 '.8

227 '.5

71.9

7,156
6,753
7,656

2,001
1,700
2,096

3.25
3.95
3.69

1.84
2.00
1,72

2,392
3,209
3,016

1971
January
February
March

• ••

1972
January
February
March

April
May
June
Juiv
August
September

-14*8

221*. 4

236*3

76.7

7,738
7,872
7,220

2,634
1,994
1,817

3.79
3.45
3.48

2.58
1.77
1.82

3,690
2,937
3,382

-21.*6

224*9

246.5

78*.6

7,034
6,619
6,653

1,518
1,247
1,585

3.50
(NA)

1,96
1.53
2.94

2,771
2,659
3,360

7, 534

2,213

1.52

(NA)

(NA)

p243*l

p75*2

(NA)

(NA)

rl.51
P2.03

3,183
2,641

....

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.


OCTOBER 1972


ItCII

89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product

Year
and
month

211. Index

(1958-100)

1970
January
February
March

(Ann. rate,
percent)

130*0

July
August
September

131 !i

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

132*. 9

134.'?

April
May
June

13 6! 2

July
August
September

137! 4

October. . .November
December
1972
January
February
March

juiv
August
September

pUlii

78 lc. Change
over l-month
span 1

(1967-100)

(Percent)

78 lc. Change
over 6-month
span 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

784. Services®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

0.5
0.6
0.4

6.7
6.4
5.9

113.6
114.4
114.4

110.2
110.6
110.8

117.1
118.0
119.3

4.6

115.2
115.7
116.3

0.5
0.4
0.4

5.5
4.8
5.1

114.7
115.0
114.9

111.5
112.0
112.4

120.1
120.7
121.4

3.3

116.7
116.9
117.5

0.3
0.3
0.6

5.0
4.9
5.0

115.0
115.1
115.6

112.6
112.9
113.5

122.0
122.7
123.5

5.5

118.1
118.5
119.1

0.5
0.4
0.4

5.0
4.9
4.1

115.6
115.7
115.5

114.. o
114.5
115.3

124.1
124.9
125.6

5.5

119.2
119.4
117.8

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.6
3.9
3.8

115.6
116.2
117.2

115-4
115.5
115.7

126.3
126.6
126.6

4.6

120.2
120.8
121.5

0.3
0.5
0.4

3.8
4.0
3.9

117.9
118.3
118.8

115.9
116.6
116.9

126.8
127.5
128.2

3.5

121.8
122.1
122.2

0.3
0.3
0.1

3.7
3.0
2.8

119.0
119.3
119.0

117.1
117.5
117.5

128.8
r!29.3
129.8

1.7

122.4
122.6
123.1

0.2
0.2
0.3

2.9
3-4
3.1

118.9
119.8
120.5

117.5
117.5
117.7

rl29.9
r!30.3
r!30.7

4.5

123.2
123.8
124.0

0.3
0.6
0.0

3.2
3.5
2.9

120.4
122.6
.122.6

117,9
118.2
118.4

131.5
131.8
r!32.1

2.4

124.3
124.7
125.0

0.2
0.3
0.1

3.2
2.5
3.4

122.5
122.4
122.6

118.6
119.2
119.2

132.4
132.7
133.1

P 2.7

125.5
125.7
126.2

0.4
0.2
0.5

123.3
123.9
124.7

119.5
119.9
120.4

133.5
133.8
134.1

139 '.5

140.3

781. Index ©

783. Commodities less
food

113.3
113.9
114.5

13 7! 9

April
May
June

782. Food

All items

4.7
128 ! 6

April
May
June

October
November
December

21lc. Change
over l-quarter
spans x

Consumer price indexes

.. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the latest month, l-quarter changes are placed on
1st month of the 2nd quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.




90

OCTOBER 1972

IICII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities @

58. Manufactured goods®

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. Index®

(1967-100)

(1967-100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over l-month
spans 1

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

1970
January. .
February .
March.

109.3
109.7
109.9

108.8
109.1
109.3

111.9
112.0
112.1

113.1
113.2
113-5

108.3
108.7
108.9

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.7
3.8
3.7

April
May
June

109.9
110.1
110.3

109.6
109.7
110.0

112,4
111.2
111.0

in. 6
109.8
109.5

109.3
109.7
109.8

0.4
0.4
0.2

3.6
3.6
3.6

July
August
September

110.9
110.5
111.0

110.6
110.6
110.8

in. 7
112.3
112.7

111.2
109.4
113.6

110.0
110.2
110.4

0.3
0.2
0.2

4.1
3.5
3.5

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

111.0
110.9
111.0

111.2
111.2
111.2

112.5
112.6
111.4

110.3
108.9
107.7

111.3
111.3
111.7

0.6
0.2
0.3

3.6
3.5
3.6

111.8
112.8
113.0

111.8
112.4
112.7

111.8
113.2
113.9

109.4
113.0

in. 5

112.2
112.5
112.8

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.2
3.8
4.0

April
May
June

113.3
113.8
114.3

113.0
113.5
113.8

114.0
114.5
114.3

112.8
112,4
113.8

113.3
113.7
113.9

0.4
0.5
0.3

4.6
5.4
4.7

July
August
September

114.6
114.9

114.5

114.5
114.9
114.7

114.4
114.7
114.4

111,4
114.2
112.2

114.5
115.1
115.0

0.6
0.5
-0.1

3.4
2.7
2.5

October....
November
December
1972
January
February
March

114.4
114.5
115.4

114.5
114.5
115.1

114.9
115.4
116.6

114.0
114.0
116.5

115.0
114.9
115.3

-0.2
0.1
0.2

2.0
1.7
2.4

116.3
117.3
117.4

115.7
116.5
116.7

117.2
118.7
118.8

118.4
n9.7
118.2

115.9
116.5
116.8

0.4
0.4
0.3

3.6
4.1
4.5

April
May
June

117.5
118.2
118.8

116.9
117.4
117.8

118.2
118.6
119.0

118.9
120.5
121.7

117.3
117.6
117.9

0.4
0.4
0.4

4.3
4.2
4.1

July
August
September

119.7
119.9
120.2

118.3
118.5
118.8

119.8
120.3
121.6

125.7
1294
130.6

118.1
118.5
118.7

0.2
0.4
0.2

. .

October
November
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57 •
"Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2nd month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.

 OCTOBER 1972


91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
859. Real
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
spendable
private nonfarm economy
avg. wkly.
earnings
Current dollar compensation
Real earnings
nonagri.prod.
or nonsupv.
741c. Change 741c. Change workers
745c. Change 745c. Change
745. Index
over 1 -quarter over4-quarter
over 1-month
over 6-month
2
2
spans
spans
spans
spans 3
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(1967 dol.) (1967=100)
(Percent)
percent)
percent)
percent)

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month

Current dollar earnings
740. Index

740c. Change 740c. Change 741. Index
over 1-month
over 6-month
spans2
spans^
(Ann. rate,
(Percent)
percent)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Revisea

1970

Revised3

Revised3

Revised3

Revised3

Revised3

Revised3

Revised3

119.7

0.3

90.55
90.33
90.44

0.1
0.2

1.4
2.6
2.0

89.99
89.64
89.81

121.8

0.4
0.5
0.1

2.0
2.3
2.2

90.26
90.56
89.60

124.5

0.2
0.2

2.5
2.2
2.4

89.40
89.56
89.67

126.0

January
February
March

117.4
118.0
118.9

0.3
0.5
0.8

5.9
5.6
6.2

103.5
103.4
103.7

-0.2
-0.1

April
May
June

119.3
119.9
120.6

0.3
0.5
0.6

7.0
7.5
7.3

103.5
103.6
103.8

-0.2

July
August
September

121.4
122.4
123.1

0.7
0.8
0.6

7.1
7.3
7.3

104.2
104.7
104.8

123.5
124.2
124.9

0.3
0.6
0.6

7.6
7.2
6.6

104.6
104.8
105.0

1971
January
February
March

126.0
126.7
127.1

0.9
0.6
0.3

7.6
7.8
7.2

105.5
105.9
106.0

0.5
0.4
0.1

3.8
3.7
3.3

91.27
91.53
92.05

128.' 8

April
May
June

128.1
128.9
129.4

0.8
0.6
0.4

6.6
6.6
6.9

106.6
106.7
106.7

0.6
0.1
0.0

2.7
2.5
2.9

92.30
92.34
92.44

131 '.i

July
August
September

130.1
130.8
131.4

0.5
0.5
0.5

5.9
4-5
6.7

106.9
107.2
107.5

0.2
0.3
0.3

2.1
1.5
3.7

92.21
92.36
92.72

132.* 7

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

131.8
131.8
133.6

0.3
0.0
1.4

7.2
6.2
6.3

107.7
107.5
108.6

0.2
-0.2

4.2
2.8
3.1

93.03
93.08
93.75

134^4

134.6
134-8
135.5

0.7
0.1
0.5

7.6
7.6
5.2

109.1
108.7
109.2

-0.4

4.3
4.0
2.2

95.09
95.24
95.69

137.3

April
May
June

136.7
136.7
137.1

0.9
0.0
0.3

4.8
5.2

110.0
109.6
109.8

-0.4

1.6
2.6
pi. 6

96.69
95.69
96.10

138.9

137.8
138.3
p!38.8

0.5
0.4

96.16
96.16
P96.64

p!40.8

October
November
December

. .

July
August
September

pO.4

P5.0

110.0
110.1
pllO.2

0.3

-0.2

1.0

0.5
0.5
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
pO.l

-0.8
-0.7

Revised3

Revised3

6.2
7^8

7.2
6.*9

9.2
7*.6

5.1
l'.6

9.0
6.6

7.2
6.6

5.1
6.6

5.1
$'.9

9.0
P6.'i

4.7

p5.6

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
•"•Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
8
Percent changes are, centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the latest month, 1-quarter changes are placed on
the 1st month of the 2nd quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3rd quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

92




OCTOBER 1972

!!€!»

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY--Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.

Year
and
month

Real compensation
746. Index

1970

(1967=100)

746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Revised"3

Revised2

January
February
March

105.1

April . .
May
June

105.2

July
August
September

106! 4

October . .
November .
December .

106.3

-0.1

746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

0.7

108.8

October ..
November
December

109^5

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

Revised2

Revised

Revised

Revised2

-1.3

7.5

8.5

8.7

12.7

104.7

3.*6

1Q3.'9

2,7

105.8

4.1

106.6

3.2

107 .*3

4.2

108.5

3.2

108." 5
10.6

2!?

4.1

2.2

107.6

15.0

103.0

7.5

8.2

3*.0

1.9

-1.9

107 !o

11.5

101 '.8

6.9

11.6

3.0

2.2
4.3

10.9

105.1

10.6

2.7

(1967=100)

102^8

2.2

1.0

770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans 1

105^6
10.6

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans 1

8.0

3.1

2.7

770. Index

103 '.9

16.0

5.6

July
August
September

(Ann. rate,
percent)

2^6

10?! 8

108.5

11.3

16.3

-0.3

April
May
June

(Ann. rate,
percent)

749. Average
changes over
life of
contract

1.2

4.5

1971
January
February
March

748. First
year average changes

Revised2

i!9

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ©

3.7

109.4

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September

5.4

11Q.9
1.6

....
>

P9.3

p8.1

P7.3

p7.0

Pl.9

pill. 9

P4.3

(NA)

109.9

6.2

112.2

111.4

...

3.9

110.5

p2.9

111.3

P3.7

(NA)

pl!3.2

P113.0

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
•"-Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3rd quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,'1 page iii.

BCII

OCTOBER 1972



93

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q| CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Unemployment rates

Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

841. Total

(Thous.)

842. Employed

(Thous.)

843. Unemployed

(Thous.)

844. Males
20 years and
over

845. Females
20 years and
over

(Percent)

(Percent)

846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

847. White

(Percent)

848. Negro
and other
races

(Percent)

1970
January. .
February
March
.

82,061
82,187
82,652

78,853
78,752
79,018

3,208
3,435
3,634

2.5
2.8
2.9

3.7
4.1
4.5

13.6
13.5
13.6

3.6
3.8
4.0

6.5
7.1
7.2

April
May
June

82,769
82,504
82,388

78,908
78,514
78,412

3,861
3,990
3,976

3.2
3.4
3.4

4.4
4.9
4.6

15.2
14.3
15.1

4.2
4.5
4.4

8.2
8.0
8.5

July
August
September

82,804
82,769
82,945

78,631
78,514
78,448

4,173
4,255
4,497

3.7
3.7
3.9

4.9
4.8
5.1

14.4
15.8
16.5

4.7
4.7
5.0

8.2
8.5
8.7

October
. . .
November
December . . . .

83,266
83,418
83,485

78,678
78,548
78,427

4,588
4,870
5,058

4.0
4.2
4-5

5.1
5.6
5.7

16.7
17.2
17.6

5.1
5.4
5.6

9.0
9.0
9.6

January
February
March

83,730
83,361
83,455

78,718
78,475
78,446

5,012
4,886
5,009

4.3
4.3
4.3

5.7
5.6
5.8

17.5
16.9
17.5

5.5
5.4
5.5

9.5
9.6
9.5

April
May
June

83,788
83,986
83,401

78,732
78,830
78,600

5,056
5,156
4,801

4-4
4.5
4.3

5.9
5.9
5.6

17.0
17.4
16.2

5.6
5.6
5.3

4.3
4.5
4.5

5.7
5.8
5.7

16.5
17.1
16.9

5.4
5.6
5.4

10.0

. .

1971

9.8
10.5

9.4

July
August
September

83,930
84,313
84,491

79,014
79,199
79,451

4,916
5,114
5,040

October....
November
December

84,750
85,116
85,225

79,832
80,020
80,098

4,918
5,096
5,127

4.3
4-4
4.3

5.5
5.8
5.8

16.7
16.7
17.3

5.3
5.6
5.4

10.4

January
February
March.

85,707
85,535
86,313

80,636
80,623
81,241

5,071
4,912
5,072

4.2
4.0
4.1

5.5
5.0
5.4

17.8
18.8
17.9

5.3
5.1
5.3

10.6
10.5
10.5

April
May
June

86,284
86,486
86,395

81,205
81,394
81,667

5,079
5,092
4,728

4.3
4.3
4.0

5.4
5.9
5.5

17.3
15.7

5.4
5.3
5.0

10.7

July
August
September

86,467
86,860
87,049

81,682
81,973
82,222

4,785
4,887
4,827

3.9
3.9
3.8

5.7
5.5
5.4

14.8
16.9

9.9
10.4

9.4
10.4

1972

October
November
December

14.5

16.5

5.0
5.1
5.0

9.6
9.4
9.9
9.7
10.2

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.

94




OCTOBER 1972

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

y| ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter

207. Gap (potential less actual)

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1

205. Actual value

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1969
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. . . .
1970

722.4
725.8
729.2
725.1

717.2
724.3
731.4
738.6

-5.2
-1.5
+2.2
+13.5

First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

720.4
723.2
726.8
718.0

746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4

+26.0
+31.1
+35.5
+52.4

731.9
737.9
742.5
754.5

778.5
786.7
795.1
803.5

+46.6
+48.8
+52.6
+49.0

766.5
783.9
P795.3

812.0
820.6
829.3

+45.5
+36.7
P+34-0

1971
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter
1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3
percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1972.

OCTOBER 1972




95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

HI ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing

Year
and
month

851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade

(Percent)

(Ratio)

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries

(Ratio)

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income

(Ratio)

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1

857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ®

(Ratio)

(Percent)

Revised2

2

( )

1970

853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods

January
February
March.. .

so'.s

1.61
1.61
1.62

3.12
3.08
3.10

95.2
94-5
94.8

0.069

1.011
0.945
0.844

s'.i

April
May
June

79^8

rl.64
1.62
rl.62

3.09
3.00
3.00

93.7
92.7
92.0

0.081

0.763
0.709
0.689

5^4

July
August
September

7B\3

1.63
1.63
1.64

2.93
2.92
2.86

91.4
91.4
91.1

0.083

0.649
0.623
0.563

5. *3

October
November
December

74«*2

1.67
1.70
1.67

2.89
2.92
2.88

88.9
88.9
87.0

0.084

0.500
0.477
0.471

5 \2

75.'6

rl.65
1.63
rl.62

2.90
2.88
2.80

84,2
85.3
84.1

0.082

0.445
0.469
0.463

5\3

April
May
June

75\6

1.61
1.60
rl.59

2.76
2.67
2.58

83.3
82.4
82.3

0.086

0.459
0.456
0.515

5 \3

July
August
September

74-*7

rl.6l
rl.58
rl.60

2.62
2.71
2.68

83.5
84.1
84.1

0.081

0.515
0.495
0.473

5.*6

October . .
November
December

74.6

rl.6l
rl.57
rl.58

2.65
2.60
2.57

84.2
83.0
83.1

0.078

0.484
0.473
0.494

5.*6

75.3

rl.55
rl.56
rl.53

2.55
2.54
2.51

83.0
83.5
84.7

0.072

0.499
0.527
0.528

5*3

77*4

rl.52
•rl.5.1
rl.52

2. ^6
2.47
2. 58

83.0
83.9
83.9

0.064

0.545
0.544
0.605

5.5

p77!<S

rl.51
pi. 49
(NA)

2.58
P2.55
(M)

83.8
84.8
p85.5

pO.064

0.641
0.646
p0.6ll

5*.8

1971
January
February
March

1972
January
February
March

..

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this series.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

96




OCTOBER 1972

KCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

R| DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators

Year
and
month

Dl. Average workweek
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
of production workers,
durable goods industries
manufacturing (21
industries)
(35 industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries) 1

1-quarter
span

3-quarter
span

D34. Profits,
mfg.,
D23. Index of industrial
D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
materials prices (13
FNCB
2
industrial materials)
(about 1,000 stocks (75 industries)®
corporations)
1-quarter
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

Revised3 Revised3

1970
January
February
March

31.0
19.0
28.6

9.5
11.9
21.4

42.9
62.9
51.4

40.0
20.0

April
May
June..

26.2
28.6
59.5

11.9
11.9
9.5

51.4
55.7
57.1

July
August. . .
September .

69.0
19.0
11.9

9.5
19.0
45.2

October
November
December

78.6
66.7
59.5

January
February
March

50

29

51

43.3
23.3
82.7

37.1
37.1
48.6

47

29

47

16.4

51.4
40.0
60.0

42.9
50.0
68.6

35

40.5
54.8
50.0

20.0
58.6
60.0

54.3
62.9
57.1

69.0
31.0
78.6

73.8
83.3
81.0

57.1
60.0
57.1

April
May
June

45.2
73.8
54-8

76.2
64.3
66.7

July
August
September

54.8
35.7
19.0

October.
November
December

28.6

2.7

5.5
5.6
5.6

50.0
30.8
57.7

61.5
42.3
38.5

6.9

61.5
53.8
19.2

34.6
34.6
38.5

47.9

25.0
27.8

29

52

41.7
77.8
96.5

31.9
46.5
72.2

46.2
42.3
46.2

19.2
15.4
15.4

41

24

40

72.2
48.6
98.6

95.8
97.2
98.6

30.8
42.3
19.2

15.4
30.8
46.2

67.1
65.7
8Q.O

53

29

59

95.8
87.5
71.5

98.6
95.1
91.0

46.2
61.5
80.8

46.2
46.2
46.2

57.1
60.0
58.6

81.4
68.6
71.4

35

53

60

84.0
41.7
27.8

97.2
77.8
56.9

80.8
38.5
46.2

61.5
69.2
69.2

73.8
88.1
73.8

50.0
64.3
35.7

77.1
62.9
85.7

76

41
...
...

60

44.4
23.6
71.5

31.9
43.1
44.4

57.7
61.5
53.8

53.8
53.8
46.2

81.0
78.6
64.3

83.3
85.7
95.2

54.3
64.3
51.4

82.9
91.4
91.4

47

82

48

18.1
95.8

50.7
59.7
65.3

46.2
34.6
61.5

53.8
80.8
84.6

January
February
March

31.0
83.3
45.2

83.3
88.1
88.1

57.1
57.1
74-3

85.7
91.4
84.3

65

63

89.6
70.1
76.4

62.5
59.0
68.1

65.4
73.1
76.9

76.9
76.9
84.6

April
May
June

88.1
0.0
88.1

81.0
p78.6

62.9
42.9
48.6

r85.7
p85.7

P71

65

71.5
21.5
43.1

84.7
67.6

65,4
76.9
73.1

84.6
3
3

1971

...

2.8

1972

26.2
76.2
P52.4

July
August
September
October
November
December

. . .

42.9
r68.6
P55.7

(NA)

P82

(NA)

P6l

30.6
76.4
33.8

92.3

84.6

61.5
65.4
50.0
3

65. 4

NOTE: Figures are the percent pf series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span,-1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, on 72 components through August 1972, and on
71 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table £& but are available from the source agency.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
4
Average for October 3. 10, and 17,

BCII

OCTOBER 1972



97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
Roughly Coincident Indicators

Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month

D5. Initial claims for
D41. Number of employees
unemployment insurance,
payrolls
State programs, week in- 1 on nonagricultural
(30 industries)
cluding the 12th (47 areas)
1-month
span

9-month
span

1970

January
February
March

1-month
span

6-month

(2)

(2)

span

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
1-month
span

6-month
span

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span

6-month
span

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span

9-month
span

(3)

Mr.7

4.3
2.1
11.7

40.0
41.7
36.7

33.3
31.7
28.3

12.5
r62.5
31.2

33.3
r31.2
r29.2

86.4
77.3
72.7

79.5
77.3
75.0

60.9
58.7
50.0

78.3
82.6
82.6

April
May
June

25.5
63. 8
42.6

6.4
12.8
2.1

26.7
20.0
26.7

25.0
18.3
16.7

r58.3
r33.3
r37.5

54.2
r33.3
50.0

68.2
68.2
56.8

77.3
84.1
86.4

82.6
54.3
39.1

91.3
82.6
82.6

July
August
September

59.6
42.6
31.9

12.8
25.5
55.3

33.3
25.0
55.0

16.7
20.0
20.0

r58.3
r41.7
33.3

33.3
33.3
r35.4

61.4
70.5
77.3

75.0
81.8
77.3

56.5
65.2
50.0

78.3
69.6
67.4

October. . .
November .
December
.. .
1971
January
February
March

53.2
57.4
70.2

55.3
51.1
46.8

31.7
38.3
58.3

25.0
31.7
33.3

33.3
r33.3
r50.0

37.5
r41.7
r43.8

75.0
61.4
56.8

72.7
81.8
81.8

67.4
54.3
47.8

56.5
78.3
91.3

38.3
61.7
42.6

46.8
61.7
72.3

51.7
41.7
40.0

48.3
65.0
46.7

r54.2
50.0
r41.7

r70.8
70.8
r72.9

79.5
75.0
72.7

77.3
81.8
81.8

43.5
65.2
73.9

80.4
87.0
(NA)

April
May
June

48.9
44.7
40.4

57.4
21.3
48.9

76.7
80.0
33.3

33.3
46.7
65.0

79.2
r58.3
56.2

r62.5
r64.6
r75.0

68.2
72.7
72.7

90.9
95.5
86.4

73.9
52.2
73.9

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

July
August
September . . .

57.4
25.5
46.8

42.6
57.4
63.8

41.7
55.0
91.7

58.3
55.0
56.7

52.1
45.8
75.0

62.5
66.7
62.5

86.4
90.9
38.6

86.4
72.7
77.3

(NA)
87.0
39.1

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

October....
November
December
1972
January
February
March

57.4
66.0
59.6

70.2
74.5
57.4

51.7
60.0
48.3

78.3
90.C
73,3

58.3
60.4
54.2

70. $
87.5
87.5

25.0
45.5
68.2

75.0
77.3
86.4

47.8
78.3
37.0

(NA)
(NA)
91.3

42.6
46.8
59.6

68.1
63.8
76.6

r76.7
r65.0
r83.3

85.0
85.0
90.0

70.8
70.8
66.7

95.8
87.5
87.5

86.4
90.9
79.5

90.9
95.5
95.5

45.7
71.7
87.0

100.0
91.3
100.0

April
May
June

55.3
36.2
53.2

78.7
57.4

r?8.3
78.3
r63.3

r85.0
r8l.6
P76.6

79.2
50.0
64.6

r83.3
79.2
P87.5

77.3
90.9
79.5

95.5
100.0
100.0

47.8
69.6
37.0

r91.3

July
August
September

66.0
66.0
46.8

31.9
25.5

r28.3
P73.3

52.1
r70.8
p85.4

79.5
75.0
81.8

p82.6

69.6
r65.2
P34.8

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
•Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Data beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.

98




OCTOBER 1972

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1972

Diffusion index components
February

April

March

June

May

September15

Augustr

July

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
+

All manufacturing industries

o

(83)

Percent rising of 21 components • • • • • • • • • • •

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

1-40.4

40.4

+

40.8
(88)

(45)

40.6

(88)

(26)

+

41-7
41.6

+

41.6
41.8

rU-3
42.0

o
+

41-3
42.4

+

41.0
42.5

40.3

r41.3

+
-

40.4
41.2

+
o

40.6
41.2

_
-

r40.4
r39.3

+
+

40.6
39.5

o
+

40.6
39.6

r40.5
r34.2

+

r40.4
r34.3

+

40.3
35.4

+
+

r41.3
35.9

+

r41.2
r36.0

+
+

41-3
36.1

o
o

41.3
36.1

+
+

43.0
37.9

+

r42.8

+
o

42.9
38.0

+
+

43.0
38.2

r42.0

+
+

r42.2

-

r41.6

+

41.6
41.9

+
+

41.8
42.2

r41.0
r38.6

+
o

r41.3

-

r40.9

+
+

41-4
38.9

41.2
42.1

r41.9

+
_

1-41.6

_

-

r40.6
r39.4

o
+

40.6
39.5

40.4

r34-l

-

r33.7

+
+

41.7

-

r41.2

r36.2

+
+

r42.9

-

r42.5

r42.2

+

r42.4

-

r41.0

+
+

r41.3

-

o
+

r42.0

41.0
41.4

o

r40.9
41-4

+
+

r40.6
r41.7

o

+
+

r40.6
r39.4

-

r39.2

+
-

r40.1 +
r34.1 +

o
+

41.2
36.2

+

+
+

42.6

Printing and publishing

r37.6

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

+
-

r42.2

Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products

+
+

41.0
38.5

+
+

42.0

r41.0

Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical

+
+

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products •
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

41-4

-

r41.3

+
+

r41-4
r41.9

-

r£L.8

r40.2
r41.7

+
+

r43.0

-

40.3

+
+

40.7
39.6

r34.5

+
-

41-4
35.8

+
+

+
o

42.7
37.6

o
o
o

40.6

41.1

40.4

40.7

38.0

39.1

35.6

37.7
41.6

41.7

41.8

38.2

41.8

40.8

42.0

42.0

-

Percent rising of 35 components

32,466

+

(57)

33,328

+

34,005

+

(63)

(74)

34,302

+

+
-

o
+

40.5

38.6

35,613

41.1
40.4
41.9

38.0

38.4

-

40.1
34.2

41.1
38.7

2

-

(49)

(43)

r42.4

41.8

42.0

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries

(52)

(76)

r41.4

+
+

r42.0
r41.1

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

r40.7

40.7

+

r41.0
r40.5

41.1

+

42.3
41.0
40.6

42.0

-

40.9

r40.6

42.8
41.2
40.5

r41.4

o
+

r42.0

o

+
+
+

+
+

r40.4

+
-

41.8

(0)

r40.7

r£L.2
r40.8

r42.2

1-42.2
r40.8
r40.6

•

+

o
+
+

+
+
+

+
+

Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

40.5

34,664

+

35,961 +

(56)

(69)

(43)

36,603

+
+

5,442
3,505

-

5,426 +
3,501 +

5,967
3,556

+

5,949
3,654

+
+

5,668 +
4,841 -

5,923
4,775

_

5,728 +
4,621 +

5,853
4,778

_
+

5,810
4,914

8,111
7,007 +

7,867 +
7,214 -

8,781 7,187 -

8,536 +
7,271 +

8,939
7,337

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
+

4,888 +
3,381 +

5,243
3,420

-

4,999 +
3,401 -

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery

+

5,254
4,596

+
+

5,574
4,694

+
+

5,654
4,833

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+

7,632
6,715

+

7,512
6,885

+
+

5,339
3,373

8,415
6,973

+
+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
_2Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.

IICII OCTOBER 1972




99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
February

July

June

May

April

March

September

August

October

i

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2

Industrial materials price
index (1967 =100)

+

113.0 +

117.2 +

119.5

+

124.3

- 123.8 -

123.7

+ 124.8

+

124.6

+

.440
.059
40.469 - 36.929
1.802 + 1.826
.179
o
.179
.187
.194

+ 127.7

(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components

Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib )
o
Zinc (Ib )
Burlao (vd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops(lb )
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)

(73)

(73)

(77)

(77)

(65)

+
+
+
+
o
+

-446
.056
30.000
1.736
.170
.237

+
+
+
+
+

.461
.063
35.130
1.814
.173
.218

.430
.063
36.998
1.799
.176
.227

+
+
+

.44-1 +
.065 o
34.213 +
1.790 +
.179 +

+
+
+
+
-

.354
.273
.916
.220
17.402
.184
.060

+
+
+
+
+

.363
.281
1.128
.261
17.837
.169
.057

.383
.292
1.126
.273
18.419
.163
.061

+
+
+
+
+
+
+

.395
.307
1.683
.285
18.661
.169
.063

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

.224
o
+
+
+
+
o

(62)
.439
.061

-445
.065

35.282
1.796
.180
.209

+
+

.375
.307

+
1.738 +
.321 +
18.831 +
.170
+
.063
+

38.793
1.793

1.743
-354

18.996
.171
.065

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls . . . + 71,744 + 72,011 + 72,246 + 72,592 + 72,699 Percent rising of 30 components

Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products o ...... o
Furniture and fixtures
+
Stone, clay, and glass products. . . .+
Primary metal industries
+
Fabricated metal products
+
Machinery except electrical . . o . . .+
Electrical equipment.
+
Transportation equipment
+
Instruments and related products. . . +
Miscellaneous manufacturing
+
Food and kindred products
o
Tobacco manufactures
+
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products. . +
o
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. . +
+
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities. . Wholesale trade
+
Retail trade
+
Finance, insurance, real estate
+
Service
+
Federal government
State and local government
+

(65)

(83)

(78)

(78)

o
89 +
91
+
520 +
524
402
+
399 +
519
+
519 o
+
956 +
965
+ 1,028 + 1,038
o 1,189 + 1,200
+ 1,205 + 1,214
+ 1,229 + 1,252
o
266 +
269
+
329 +
331
+ 1,186 0 1,186
63
+
63 o
+
864 +
865
1,164 + 1,173
+
529 +
531
656
+
655 +
575
575 o
117
o
117 o
+
478
+
-473
+
261 +
262

+
92
o
524
o
402
+
526
+
978
+ 1,049
+ 1,233
+ 1,223
+ 1,257
+
273
329
- 1,182
o
63
+
868
- 1,166
+
539
+
658
+
580
o
117
+
483
+
266

+
+
+
+

613
3,494
4,438
3,863
11,593
3,874
12,112
2,669
10,476

+
614
+ 3,512 +
4,487 +
3,883 +
+ 11,625 +
+
3,885 +
+ 12,139 +
2,667 + 10,514 +

605
3,493
4,481
3,894
11,667
3,892
12,206
2,664
10,554

604
+
3,535
+
4,490
+ 3,914
+ 11,718
+ 3,913
+ 12,252
o
2,665
+ 10,609

600
3,500
o 4,491
+
3,926
+ 11,756
+ 3,931
+ 12,290
2,646
- 10,578

+
o
+
+
+
+

o
+
o
+
o
+
o

95
526
405
528
973
1,053
1,233
1,237
1,241
276
332
1,202
63
870
1,161
539
656
581
117
492
266

+
+
+
+
+
o

+
+
+
o
+
o
o

+
+
+

+
1.751 +
+
.379
19.083 +
.174
.065
+

.291
.333
1.868
.396
18.850
.181
.069

72,980

73,221

.336
.324

(65)
+

-443
.058

+ 39.707
+ 1.831
o
.179
.185
.270

+ .343
+ 1.949
+ .460
- 18.549
+ .200
+
.073

4

72,661 +
(28)

(63)

89
519
397
515
940
1,022
1,139
1,198
1,218
266
327
1,180
60
857
1,165
526
654
576
117
469
260

+
+

.181
.199
.359
.317

(50)

(65)
.447
.060

+

(73)

(83)

+

+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o

97
531
410
530
987
1,056
1,243
1,241
1,242
277
332
1,167
58
874
1,160
540
655
579
117
491
262

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

603
3,537
4,487
3,934
11,809
3,936
12,424
2,618
10,700

+
606
o
3,538
+
4,490
+
3,954
+ 11,820
+ 3,951
+ 12,438
+
2,636
+ 10,769

96
527
409
528
966
1,049
1,231
1,233
1,245
276
329
1,188
62
867
1,140
539
655
578
116
489
262

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

599
3,489
4,473
3,913
11,779
3,927
12,341
2,621
10,658

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+

+
+
+
o
+

98
528
409
530
1,020
1,060
1,245
1,256
1,244
280
332
1,170
54
873
1,161
542
653
584
117
496
261

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^•Average for October 3, 10, and 17.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census*
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
4
Revised. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

100




OCTOBER 1972

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
March

February

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967-100)

+ 110.0

All industrial production

+

Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals »
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+
+

(65)

+ 113.7

+

114.5 + 115.2
(71)

(52)

(85)

+ 113.7
+ 113.2

- 112 !l
+ 113.8

+ 113.8
+ 114.5

+
98.*6 + 100.4 + rioi.a
+ 103.3 + 107.1 - 105.9 + r!08.0
98.9
+ 95.9 + 100.4
97.4
- 114.2 + 116.1 + 117.3 + 119.3

+ 102.9
- 107.5
+ 98.2
+ 119.8

+ 103!8
+ 107.9
+ 98.4
+ 119.9

+
104!9
- 107.1
+ 99.2
+ 120.0

+ 117.6
- 121.5

+ 117.9
+ 123.0

rll2.8
r!30.6

+ 115.5
+ 131.0

+ 116 !l
+ 132.8

+ rl!3*9
+ 103.0
+
r92.2

- 112.8
- 101.3
- 90.2

105!! + 110.2
110.1 + 110.8

+

Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products

+ 117.0
- 119.7

+
11?! 2
- 119.6

Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures.

+ 108.4 + 108.7 + 111.7 - 110.7
+ 127.2 + 127.4 + 129.6
+ 125.4

97\6

-

+ 120.3

117 !i

+ 117.5 - rll7!4
+ 119.9 - 119.1 + 121.8

(NA)
(NA)

-

- 10?! 0
+ 100.1
- 86.9

+

Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

+ 122.8
+ 105.8

- 122.5
+ 105.9

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products

Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

p

+ 113*5 - rill. 9
+ 111.9 + 112.3

102 '.6 +
108.6 +

+ 96.2
+ 103.2
+
94-7
+ 1H.5

Foods and tobacco. .
Poods
Tobacco products

September

.

Machinery and allied goods
Noneletrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment

Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel and leather,,
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products

+ 113.4

(50)

(79)

Augustr

July1*

2

111.2 + 112.8 + 113.2
(67)

(71)

June

May

April

0

. .0

no! 9

+
+

+ 105.9
+ 115.7

(NA)
(NA)

+ 107.2

+
113^5
+ 103.3
+ 94.4

- 112.8
- 102.8

+
124^4
- 104.2

+ 127.2
+ 105.3

- 126.7
+ rl07.3

+ 129.6 - 127.2
- 107.2
- 106.6

+ 135!l
- 118.7
+ 135.0

+ 135.7 + 137.9
- 117.9 - 117.0
+ 138.1 + 144.7

+ 138.9
+ 119.5
+ 146.5

+ r!39.5
- 117.3
- 1-145.0

+ 140.6
+ 139.6 + 142.0 +
H3.2
(NA)
+ 120.2
+ 119.5
+ 146.0
(NA)
- 144.3

+ lie! 9

118 ! 6
+
ir?!5 +
- 101.9 + 103.9

+ 102.7
85.4

89.2

-

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(NA)
84.1

+

<>•.

124.1

- 102.5

- 99.6
+ 104.1 + 112.9
+ 107.6 + 109.3 + 109.6
+ 133.7
- 93.5

-

131.0
92.7

- 122.2
92.6

118 ! 5 +
99.1

- 105.0
+ 110.7
-

119!i
96.4

+ 109.1
o 110.7

110 ! 7 91.7
+

1-102! 9
r97.4

- ll1?! 9
+ 96.7

- 116.3
- 117.7

115.1
(NA)

+ 106.8

+ 117.2
+ 118.5
(NA)

(NA)

o 109.1
- 110.5

- 109.3

- 102.4
- 91.4

+ 117.6
+ 91.8

97.2

+ 104.7
+ 109.9
+ 103.6
(NA)
(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Wiere actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

2


OCTOBER 1972


ItCII

101

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
February

March

May

April

June

July

September

August

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales

+ 35,345 +

(72)

36,450 -

(87)

(48)

Grocery stores
+ 7,133 + 7,190 +
- 2,714 + 2,814 Eating and drinking places
.
+
3,650 +
Department stores
3,664 406
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise). . . +
399 +
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores

+
+

Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores

+
+

1,027 + 1,058
568
573
1,249 + 1,270
327 +
352

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

+
+
+
+

6,121
568
2,493
1,155
753

+

617 +
409 +
673
287 +

632
417
671
290

36,287 +

+
+
+
+

7,263
2,752
3,643
396

37,120

-

(37)

(70)

+
+
+
+

7,438
2,778
3,838
423

671
445
675 +
310 +

649
438
703
317

36,802 + r37,342 + 37,843 -

+
-

(70)

(35)

(65)

7,271
2,794
3,792
393

+
+
+
+

r7,374
r2,8!8
r3,899
422

+

7,353
2,794
3,846
436

638
429
681
294

+
+
+
+

r643
r433
r695
r299

+

652
430
703
293

+

+

+
+
+

- 1,044 - 1,016 + 1,051 - rl,026 + 1,039
576
587 +
583
527 +
r607
- 1,246 + 1,250 + 1,263 + rl,338 + 1,353
0
316 +
352
342
342
r341 +
+
+
+
+

6,719
583
2,529
1,221
766

+
4-

+
+
+
+

r6,821
r578
r2,577
rl,204
r785

+
+
+
+
+

7,123
610
2,650
1,228
788

+

117.8 +

118.3

+

118.5

+

6,704
562
2,495
1,227
776

(N/0
(NA)

(m)

(NA)

+

+ 6,464 + 6,490
577
+
609
2,488
+ 2,534 + 1,178 + 1,219
+
800
769

37,297

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

'(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

(W)
(N4)
(NA)

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries

+

Percent rising of 22 components

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products

Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

116.5
(91)

+ 116.7 + 116.9 +
(80)
(77)

+
+
+
+

137.7 + 139.5 + 141.1
110.8 + 110.9 + 111.0
124.6 + 124.8 + 125.6
128.2 + 128.3 o 128.3

+
+
+
+

115.0 + 117.2
122.0 + 122.1
123.2 + 124.1
121.2 + 121.5
118.8 + 119.0
110.0 + 110.1
118.1 o 118.1
114-0 + 114.2

+
o
+
+
+
+
-

117.6
122.1
124-3
121.9
119.6
110.2
118.0
114.1

+ 118.8 - 118.6
+ 118.0 + 119.6
+
92.2
92.0
+ 105.9 + 106.1
+ 114.0 + 114.1

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

117.7
120.5
93.0
107.2
114.2
112.8
104.1
106.6
108.7
127.2

+
+
+
+

+
111.6
+ 103.5
- 105.5
- 109.2
+
119.1

+
+
+

112.3
103.4
106.3
108.9
123.0

117.4 +

+ 142.7
+
111.1
+ 125.9
o 128.3

+
144.2
+
111.2
- 125.8
128.1

+
+
+

117.8 122.0 +
124.4 o
122.2 +

+
+
+
o

120.3
110.5
118.1
114.1

+
+
+
+
+

118.6
121.5

+
+
+
+

+
146.1
+
111.4
+ 126.2
+ 128.3

+
+
+
+

148.1
111.7
126.7
128.6

118.8
(82)

(75)

+ 148.5
+ 112.0
+ 126.9
+ 128.8

116.8 o 116.8 + 117.4
o 122.2 4- 122.5 + 122.7
- 124.2 + 124.7 o 124.7
+ 122.9 + 123.0 o 123.0
120.7 + 120.8 o 120.8 + 120.9
110.6 + 110.7 - 110.6 o 110.6
118.5 118.4 + 118.5 o 118.5
114.2 +
114-9 +
115.1 + 115.2

117.6
122.2
124.4
122.7

+ 119.6
+ 122.6
+
99.2
98.3
108.0 + 108.6
114-3 + 114.4

+ 113.2
+ 104.4
+ 107.3
+ 108.8
+ 129.5

(80)

(80)

(91)

+ 121.5
+ 123.0
+ 100.0
+ 108.9
+
115.1

+ 113.5 +
- 104.3 + 108.5 +
+ 108.9 +
+ 130.9 +

113.7
104.2
109.1
109.2
131.6

+
o

121.0
122.8
101.1
108.7
115.1

+ 121.8
+ 123.6
+ 102.5
- 108.6
+ 115.3

+
114.1
+ 104.4
+ 110.7
+ 109.5
+ 134.6

+ 114.3
o 104.4
+
111.3
o 109.5
+ 135.7

NOTE: To facilitate interoretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
x

Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2
The
3




102

OCTOBER 1972

ltd*

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

ED

Year
and
month

781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®

133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®

132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

CONSUMER PRICES
135, West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices ®

(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices ®

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

1970
January
February
March

113

in
in

111
112
112

m
m

in

115
115

116
117
118

107
107
108

107
108
108

115
116

115

107
108
108

109
110
112

125
125
124

April . . .
May ... .
June

115
116
116

112
112
113

117
117
117

108
109
109

116
117
117

119
118
117

108
109
109

108
108
108

115

111
109
110

126
124
122

July
August
September

117
117
118

113
113
113

118
118
119

109
109
109

118
118
118

118
118
122

109
109
110

108
108
107

in
m

113

109
111
112

124
124
125

October
November
December
1971
January .
February .
March

118
118
119

113
113
113

120
121
121

109
110
110

119
119
120

124
123
124

111
111
112

104
103
105

m
m

113

112
110
112

124
125
126

119
119
120

113
113

m

123
124
125

111
112
113

120
121
121

125
125
125

112
113
113

105
106
106

115
115
116

113
110
109

127
129
131

April
May
June

120
121
122

115
115
115

128
128
129

in
m

127
127
127

113

115

122
123
123

106
107
107

115
116
116

111
111
112

128
127
130

July
August
September

122
122
122

116
117
117

130
130
130

115
115
116

124
124
125

127
126
131

115
115

107
106
107

117
119
120

111
111
112

132
132
136

October....
November
December
1972
January
February
March

122
123
123

117
117
118

131
132
132

116
117
117

126
126
127

131
129
129

116
117
117

107
107
108

120
120
121

111
111
110

135
136
135

123
124
124

118
119
119

133
134
134

118
119
119

127
128
128

130
130
131

117
118
118

109
110
111

122
122
122

119
99
112

138
137
139

April
May
June

124
125
125

120
120
120

136
136
137

120
120
121

129
130
130

132
133
133

119
120
120

113
133
113

125
p!24
(NA)

113
117
116

137
139
140

July
August
September

126
126
126

122
122
(NA)

138
(NA)

122
122
123

131
(NA)

133
r!34
135

121
(NA)

114
114
P115

in
in
in

m
m

115

pl!8
(NA)

(NA)

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.


OCTOBER 1972


!!€!>

103

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

QH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued

Year
and
month

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

121. OECD, 1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
reduction

127. Italy,
ndex of
industrial
reduction

(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

Q STOCK PRICES
19. United
States,
ndex of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®

142. United L46. France,
'ndex of
Kingdom,
stock
index of
Drices®
stock
prices®

(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1970
January
February . .
March

133
134
135

148
152
154

122
124
124

118
119
120

98
95
96

115
113
116

139
135
131

153
149
146

152
149
147

167
165
172

116
116
116

April
May
June

134
141
134

157
157
163

124
125
123

118
117
116

93
83
82

113
97
94

129
116
113

140
136
132

147
135
129

171
148
149

120
112
106

July
August
September

136
135
134

164
162
164

124
124
125

118
112
119

82
85
90

93
95
99

115
118
120

136
138
135

127
133
128

150
151
148

103
107
103

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

135
134
134

163
160
164

125
125
125

117
120
118

92
92
98

101
100
104

128
120
121

137
134
135

126
121
119

145
145
140

101
96
94

138
139
138

164
164
168

126
126
126

117
117
116

102
106
108

108
108
109

123
122
120

136
139
137

125
134
137

145
151
161

91
94
93

April
May
June

140
133
138

165
158
168

r!27
126
127

113
113
114

112
111
108

112
108
109

131
146
147

137
141
140

135
138
137

171
172
182

89
85
83

July
August
September

139
134
138

169
168
171

r!28
125
r!29

112
104
117

108
106
108

109
107
108

157
158
164

141
135
128

135
136
129

190
179
170

83
82
78

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March.

138
137
129

167
170
170

129
129
127

116
117
.119

106
101
108

100
98
107

160
156
165

118
124
124

124
124
133

166
168
178

78
75
77

no

137
140

173
175
179

131
r!28
r!30

119
117
116

112
114
117

117
119
121

175
180
186

128
130
140

137
146
152

195
204
215

78
76
74

April
May
June

142
142
139

178
179
182

132
r!32
132

115
rl!7
117

118
117
118

.121
123
127

191
194
184

147
155
147

157
161
159

.230
261
257

79
30
78

PH4
(NA)

r!85
(NA)

P134
(NA)

pl!4
(NA)

117
121
119

126
134
p!33

187
195
rp!83

156
pl65
pl65

159
165
160

273
290
300

80
p80
rp79

pl!9

p!31

p!80

p!66

p!55

P316

p80

. . . .

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e";, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.

-^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




104

OCTOBER 1972

IICII

APPENDIXES
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

Quarterly
Year

IQ

II Q

Quarterly

III Q

IV Q

250. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES* EXCLUDING TRANSFERS
UNDER MILITARY GRANTS (ANN. RATE. BIL. DOL.)
...
6.8
11.5
8.2
7.4

...

...

7.6
12.0
6.2
7.2

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

3.1
1.1
4.8
0.5
1.1

1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959

1945
1946
1947
1948.....
1949

Year

Annual

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

252. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. EXCLUDING TRANSFERS
UNDER MILITARY GRANTS (ANN. RATE, BIL. DOL.)

AVERAGE

...

Annual

AVERAGE

13.6
19.3
18.1
17.4

...
14.8
20.5
16.5
17.0

16.1
20.4
16.7
15.5

14.4
18.7
15.9
13.3

7.2
14.7
19.7
16.8
15.8

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

13.0
16.4
20.2
16.7
16.3

13.2
18.8
18.2
16.9
18.3

13.9
19.7
16.8
17.2
17.6

15.1
20.0
16.8
16.9
18.7

13.8
18.7
18.0
16.9
17.8

2.0
4.0
5.7
2.2
0.1

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.....

19.5
21.9
27.5
22.9
22.4

19.0
23.3
27.1
23.0
22,7

20.1
24.2
26.2
23.0
24.4

20.5
25.0
25.2
23.3
24,4

19.8
23.6
26.5
23.1
23.5

6.0
5.3
4.9
7.1
8.5

4.0
5.6
5.1
5.9
8.5

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

26.1
28.6
29.2
30.1
36.5

27.4
27.8
30.9
32.4
36.1

27.5
28.5
30.6
32.5
37.5

28.0
29.4
30.4
34.3
38.3

27.2
28.6
30.3
32.3
37.1

7.3
4.4
5.6
3.4
2.6

6.0
4.9
4.0
1.3
2.7

6.9
5.3
5.2
2.5
1*9

1965
1966.....
1967
1968
1969

35.2
42.2
45.8
47.8
47.9

40.8
42.7
46.0
50.7
56.8

4Q.3
43.7
46.3
53.1
58.1

40.5
44.8
46.8
50.8
59.2

39.2
43.4
46.2
50.6
55.5

4.0

2.8

3.6

1970
1971
1972

61.5

63.0

63.7

63.2

62.9

8.' 8
12.5
5.9
6.1

...
6.*6
10.1
5.5
3.8

-0.6
7.5
11.5
6.4
6.1

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

2.6
3.1
3.0
0.1
1.7

0.5
5.0
1.1
0.3
1.9

1.0
5.5
0.0
0.6
2.7

1*8
3.7
2.2
0.4
1.8

2.8
2.3
6.6
2.6
0.2

1.6
3.8
6.3
2.4
-0.8

2.0
4.1
5.5
2.4
0.4

1.6
5.6
4.5
1.4
0.7

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964*....

2.4
6.6
4.6
4.6
8.9

3.5
5.6
5.7
6.2
7.8

4.3
4.9
5.3
5.6
8.7

1965
1966
1967
1968.....
1969

6.2
6.2
5.5
1.9
1.2

8.1
5.6
5.8
3.4
1.1

1970
1971
1972.....

3.6

3.9

253. IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(ANNUAL RATE » BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

260. GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES* TOTAL
(ANNUAL RATE , BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

1945
1946
!947
'1948
1949.....

...
6.8
7.8
9.9
10.0

...
7*2
8.5
10.3
9.7

...
7.3
7.9
10.8
9.3

...
7.6
8.7
10.4
9.4

7.9
7.2
8.2
10.3
9.6

1945
1946
1947.....
1948
1949

...
30.9
24.2
27.3
36.1

...
25.6
25.1
30.3
38.0

...
25.0
25.2
32.8
38.5

...
26.4
25.8
35.6
38.6

82.3
27.0
25.1
31.6
37.8

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

9.9
15.4
15.4
16.2
15.3

10.6
15.7
15.1
16.8
16.6

13.5
14.8
15.7
16.9
15.8

14.1
14.4
16.8
16.3
16.1

12.0
15.1
15.8
16.6
15.9

1950
1951.....
1952
1953
1954

37.2
48.5
70.0
81.0
78.6

36.2
55.6
74.1
81.9
74.3

37.4
63.6
76.9
81.2
73.7

40.7
68.7
77.6
82.3
72.4

37.9
59.1
74.7
81.6
75.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

16.7
19.6
20.9
20.3
22.2

17.4
19.4
20.8
20.6
23*4

18.1
20.0
20.7
20.7
24.0

18.9
19.4
20.6
21.9
23.7

17.8
19.6
20.8
20.9
23.3

1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959

73.4
76.4
84.6
90.2
97.7

73.2
78.5
85.8
92.8
97.5

74.6
78.7
86.6
95.4
96.6

75,5
80.7
87,5
98,0
96.4

74.2
78.6
86.1
94.2
97,0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

23.7
22.0
24.6
25.5
27.6

23.9
22.2
25.2
26.2
28.3

23.3
23.6
25.3
26.9
28.8

21.9
24.0
25.6
27.1
29.8

23.2
23.0
25.1
26.4
28.6

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

97.0
104.3
114.4
121.9
126.4

98.8
106.7
117.0
120.9
129.2

100.4
108.4
117.4
122.9
129.4

101.9
111.3
119.3
124.3
129.8

99,6
107.6
117.1
122.5
128.7

1965
1966
1967
1968.....
1969

29.0
36.0
40.4
45.9
46.6

32.7
37.1
40.1
47.3
55.8

33.0
39.3
40.7
49.7
55.5

34.5
39.9
42.8
49.5
56.5

32.3
38.1
41.0
48.1
53.6

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

131.5
148.0
174.2
192.9
206.2

134.4
153.4
178.4
198.0
208,1

138.9
160.7
181.3
201.6
211.6

143.3
165.2
186.5
205.7
214.0

137.0
156.8
180.1
199.6
210.0

1970
1971
1972

57.9

59.2

59.8

60.4

59.3

1970
1971
1972

217.3

216.7

219.5

222.6

219.0

262. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES*
TOTAL (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

264. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES.
NATIONAL DEFENSE (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
22.2
12.4
13.5
19.4

...
16.3
12*9
15.7
20.6

...
1411
12.4
17.3
20.3

...
15^5
12.4
19.5
20.1

74.2
17.2
12.5
16.5
20.1

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
20.4
9*4
9*8
12.8

...
14!
8.
10.
13.

...
11.9
8.7
10.7
13.7

...
12.3
9.3
12.0
13.1

73.5
14.7
9.1
10.7
13.3

1950
1951.....
1952
1953
1954

18.4
27.8
47.8
56.9
52.3

17.1
34.3
51.1
57.8
47.4

17.7
41.8
54.1
56.5
45.7

20.5
46.7
54.2
56.9
44.1

18.4
37.7
51.8
57.0
47.4

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954.....

12.5
24.1
42.5
49.2
44.4

12.
30.
45.7
49.5
42.0

14.2
37.7
47.0
48.4
39.9

17.1
42.1
48.5
47.6
38.5

14.1
33.6
45.9
48.7
41.2

1955
1956
1957.....
1958
1959

44.0
44.5
49.3
51.3
54.6

43.3
45.8
49.6
52.9
54.1

44.4
45.3
49.7
54.3
53.1

44.7
46.6
49.6
55.9
52.9

44.1
45.6
49.5
53.6
53.7

1955
1956
1957
1958.....
1959

38.7
38.4
43.4
44.7
46.5

38.2
40.4
44.1
45.7
46.1

39.2
40.4
44.8
46.3
45.7

38.1
42.1
44.6
46.9
45.9

38.6
40.3
44.2
45.9
46.0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

52.7
55.4
61.9
65.0
65.0

53.0
57.3
64.0
63.4
66.0

53.9
57.8
63.3
64.2
65.2

54.6
59.2
64.4
64.4
64.5

53.5
57.4
63.4
64.2
65.2

1960
1961
1962* ....
1963
1964

45.0
46.9
51.1
51.2
50.5

44.4
47.7
53.0
50.5
50.7

44.6
47.7
51.3
51.0
49.8

45.8
48.9
50.9
50.3
48.9

44.9
47.8
51.6
50.8
50.0

1965
1966
1967
1968.....
1969

64.4
72.8
87.7
96.1
98.8

65.5
75.6
90.1
98.5
97.6

67.6
80.5
91.4
99.8
99.3

70.1
82.1
93.6
100.6
99.4

66.9
77.8
9Q.7
98.8
98.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

48.6
55.3
69.9
76.5
78.0

49.2
58.5
71.8
78.3
77.3

50.1
63.3
73.0
79.1
79.4

52.5
65.6
74.7
79.4
78.9

50.1
60.7
72.4
78.3
78.4

1970
1971
1972

99.7

96.2

95.2

95.0

96.5

1970
1971
1972.....

78.9

74.7

73.8

72.9

75.1

Note:

These seriei




; beginning with 1969 due to £

i in the

national income f

(OCTOBER 1972)

105

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of thereport
and may be used to update the tables below.

Quarterly

Quarterly
Year
IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

266. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND
SERVICES* TOTAL (ANNUAL RATEt BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

...

...

.•.

Year

II Q

III Q

IV Q

270. FINAL SALESt DURABLE GOODS
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

...

Annual

AVERAGE

.•.
42.4
47.6
49.0

...
...

...
...

44.5
48.6
50.1

45.9
49.0
49.7

50.2
31.6
44.3
48.0
49.9

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

50.4
65.2
72.9
78.5
75.7

52.6
63,8
74.4
79.0
74.4

62.7
66.9
69.5
79.0
73.1

59.6
71.2
77,0
77.4
75.0

56.3
66.8
73.5
78.5
74.6

30.1
33.0
36.6
40.6
43.3

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

77.5
84.4
93.7
87.1
91.6

81.9
86.8
92.8
84.9
94.2

85.7
87.7
93.6
85.7
95.0

85.6
91.1
92.4
88.0
92.2

82.7
87.5
93.1
86.4
93,2

47.3
52.1
55.0
59,8
65.3

46.1
50.2
53.7
58.2
63.5

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964...*,

96.3
93.6
103.4
109.4
120.5

98.7
95.0
105.5
111.8
122.7

97.9
97.2
107.9
114.7
124.9

96.7
100.6
108.1
117.3
123.3

97.4
96.6
106.2
113.3
122.8

71.3
80.1
89.9
101.8
112.3

73.2
83.0
92.9
105.1
114.6

70.1
79.0
89.4
100.8
111.2

1965.....
1966
1967
1968
1969

129.2
142.2
151.5
164.5
181.1

129.9
142.6
158.2
167.4
180.3

134.1
148.1
157.6
172.4
183.0

138.5
151.8
158.5
174.0
184.7

133.0
146.2
156.5
169.6
182.3

124.3

127.6

122.5

1970
1971
1972

184.4

185.2

187.4

174,8

183.0

8.8
11.8
13.8
16.7

10.0
12.7
15.4
18.2

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

18.8
20.6
22.3
24.1
26.3

19.2
21.3
23.0
24.1
27.0

1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959

29.4
31.8
35.3
38.9
43.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

10.9
13.4
16.1
18.5

8.1
9.8
12.6
15.0
17.7

1945
1946.,*, ,
1947..,,.
1948*..*.
1949*....

19.7
21.8
22.8
24.8
28.0

20.2
22.0
23.4
25.4
28.3

19.5
21.5
22.9
24.6
27.4

29.9
32.6
36.2
39.9
43.4

30.3
33.4
36.9
41.1
43.5

30.8
34.0
37.9
42.2
43.4

44.3
49.0
52.5
56.9
61.4

45.9
49.4
53.1
57.5
63.2

46.6
50.6
54.1
58.7
64.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

67.0
75.2
86.5
96.8
107.4

68.9
77.7
88.2
99.5
110.4

1970
1971.....
1972.....

117.6

120.5

271. CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES' DURABLE GOODS
(ANNUAL RATEi BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949.*...

IQ

...
...
44.2
46.7
50.7

...
9.3
12.2
14.6
17.4

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

Annual

...
...
1.9
0.4
0.5

...
...
1.6
0.5
-4.3

«•*
..
3.2
1.0
-0.1

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

-0.7
5.0
3.1
3.4
-3.5

3.6
10.6
-1.8
2.1
-3.9

2.5
8.8
0.5
2.4
-2.5

1955.....
1956.....
1957.....
1958
1959

1.9
5,1
1.4
-6,1
2.8

4.2
2.4
2.3
-5.5
6.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

8.3
-5.7
3.7
2.0
3.5

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

1970.....
1971.....
1972.....

274. FINAL SALES* NONDURABLE GOODS
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

...
. «•
0.1
1.1

AVERAGE

-4.6

-1.3
5.3
1.7
0,7
-2.1

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949.....

...
...
92.2
99.0
102.6

...
...
94.6
101.3
101.9

...
...
97.8
102.4
99.2

...
...
98.8
103.4
98.9

79.7
86.9
95.9
101.5
100.6

10.8
3.4
2.8
-4.3
-0.1

4.1
6.9
1.1
0.9
-2.5

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

97.8
108.5
115,6
124.9
124.9

98.2
109.6
118.1
124.9
122.6

100.1
114.7
120.8
124.8
123.9

101.1
117.8
121.7
126.2
124.8

99.3
112.6
119.1
125.2
124.1

2.4
0.8
3.4
-1.1
-1.7

3.7
3.0
-1.9
1.5
2.5

3.0
2.8
1.3
-2.8
2.3

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

125.5
132.0
138.8
142.7
149.2

126.6
132.7
139.3
144.7
149.9

127.8
133.2
141.4
147.4
151.9

131.2
134.9
141.3
148.8
153.5

127.7
133.2
140.2
145.9
151.1

1.2
-0.6
2.8
3.2
4.5

1.9
2.2
2.9
2.3
4.2

-2.6
3.6
1.7
3.8
4.5

2.1
-0.1
2.8
2.8
4.2

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

155.8
161.4
169.1
178.4
186.8

159.5
162.3
171.1
178.3
188.0

159.1
164.0
173.2
180.1
193.5

160.0
166.9
175.6
180.8
194.7

158.6
163.7
172.2
179.4
190.7

8.4
8.2
5.0
2.6
3.9

6*9
10.6
2.1
6.7
5.9

6.8
10.2
5.6
4.5
6.5

4.6
13.2
6.1
6.0
3.7

6.7
10.5
4.7
4.9
5.0

1965
1966
1967
1968*,*,,
1969

196.6
217.6
230.8
245.8
260.7

203.1
220.9
234.0
250.1
266.8

206.5
225.3
235.5
256.5
268.8

212.5
225.4
236.5
259.1
273.3

204.7
222.3
234.2
252.9
267.4

1.0

1.6

6.0

-0.9

1.9

1970
1971
1972

277.8

282.1

285.2

290.7

284.0

275. CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES* NONDURABLE GOODS
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

280. COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

1945
1946.....
1947
1948
1949

...
...
-1.4
2.9
-0.5

...
...
-2.6
4.6
-1.0

...
...
-6.0
5.1
-1.7

...
...
1.3
3.2
-0.7

0.2
1.1
-2.2
4.0
-1.0

1945,**.,
1946*....
1947
1948
1949..*..

• «•
113.5
125.6
136.9
143.1

...
115.4
127.5
138.7
140.9

«..
119.4
128.9
143.6
140.3

. *.
123.0
133.5
145.1
139.9

123.1
117.9
128.9
141,1
141.0

1950
1951
1952.....
1953
1954

3.1
5.5
2.1
-0.9
1.0

1.2
4.7
-0.5
1.0
1.2

2.4
1.6
3.8
-1.7
0.4

4.3
1.7
2.6
-0.3
1.4

2.7
3.4
2.0
-0.5
1.0

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

143.9
174.2
190.6
206.9
206.9

149.9
179.8
192.0
210.2
206.5

158.2
183.0
195.4
210.4
207.1

166.2
185.7
203.2
208.8
211.4

154.6
180.7
195.3
209.1
208.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

2.7
1.0
0.7
0.7
1.0

1.9
1.9
0.0
0.4
2.8

3.7
3.3
-0.2
1.2
2.1

3.4
1.3
-0.3
2.6
3.8

2.9
1.9
0.0
1.3
2.4

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

215.8
236.6
253.7
253.5
272.7

222.4
241.2
255.5
253.1
280.1

227.3
244.3
258.1
259.1
280.3

232.3
250.1
256.6
265.4
283.3

224.5
243.1
256.0
257.8
279.1

I960.....
1961
1962
1963
1964

1.7
2,2
3.0
2.7
1.3

2.7
2.7
3.3
1.6
1.6

1.3
1.6
2.3
3.7
0.6

0.2
1.9
4.7
4.4
3.2

1.5
2.1
3.2
3.1
1.6

I960. ....
1961.*.*.
1962.,...
1963«....
1964

291.8
294.8
317.1
333.6
355.1

295.0
299.5
322.9
338.1
362.0

295.9
304.7
325.7
343.1
369.9

294.2
311.5
328.8
349.2
375.8

294.2
302.6
323.6
341.0
365.7

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969.....

2.5
3.1
4.6
0.3
3.0

1.9
5.6
2.4
2.9
2.2

2.3
1.7
3.1
3.1
4.1

5.1
6.7
3.9
2.1
1.9

3.0
4.3
3.5
2.1
2.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

381.3
420.1
455.3
495.2
545.6

388.6
430.9
460.9
508.0
559.2

397.0
441.4
470.9
521.6
574.0

408.5
449.7
481.8
533.6
585.2

393.8
435.5
467.2
514.6
566.0

1970.....
1971.....
1972

0.5

4.7

0.2

6.6

3.0

1970
1971
1972

594.3

600.7

609.0

611.2

603.8

i beginning with

(OCTOBER 1972)

106




C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

IQ

II Q

IIIQ

IV Q

282. PROPRIETORS' INCOME
(ANNUAL RATEf BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

...

...

...

Annual

Year

1 Q

III Q

IV Q

284. RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS
(ANNUAL RATE? BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

...

II Q

Annual

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...

...

...

...

37.9
36.2
40.3
35.0

31.4
36.5
35.5
40.2
35.3

6.3
7.0
7.7
8.3

6.5
6.8
7.9
8.3

6.6
7.1
8.0
8.5

7*1
7.6
8.2
8.7

5.6
6.6
7.1
8.0
8.4

38.6
42.0
43.9
39.9
40.1

39.5
42.8
41.2
40.2
40.2

37.5
42.0
42.1
40.5
40.0

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

9.1
9.9
10.9
12.2
13.2

9.2
10.1
11.3
12.5
13.5

9.5
10.5
11.7
12.8
13.8

9.7
10.9
12.1
13.2
13.9

9.4
10.3
11.5
12.7
13.6

41.6
42.3
43.8
46.3
47.1

42.0
43.1
44.7
46.7
46.1

42.3
43.5
44.3
47.1
46.1

41.7
42.7
44.1
46.6
46.6

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

13.8
14.1
14.5
15.3
15.3

13.8
14.3
14.7
15.4
15.5

13.9
14.4
15.0
15.4
15.7

14.1
14.5
15.0
15.6
15.8

13.9
14.3
14.8
15.4
15.6

45.4
47.4
5Q.3
50.8
51.3

46.6
48.1
50*4
50.7
52.1

46.3
48.6
49.9
51.1
52.6

46.5
49.6
49.8
51.4
53.3

46.2
48.4
50.1
51.0
52.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

15.8
15.9
16.3
17.1
17.5

15.8
15.9
16.5
17.1
17.8

15.9
16.0
16.8
17.1
18.1

15.9
16.1
17.2
17.2
18.4

15.8
16.0
16.7
17.1
18.0

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

54.8
62.1
60.9
63.1
67.1

56.9
61.2
62.0
63.8
67.4

58.0
61.1
62.9
64.6
67.1

59.3
60.8
62.9
65.3
67.2

57.3
61.3
62.1
64.2
67.2

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

18.6
19.6
20.7
21.2
22.0

18.9
19.8
21.1
21.1
22.6

19.1
20.1
21.3
21.1
22.7

19.3
20.3
21.3
21.3
22.9

19.0
20.0
21.1
21.2
22.6

1970
1971
1972

67.7

67.1

66.6

65.8

66.8

1970
1971
1972

23.0

23.2

23.4

23.8

23.3

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

34.0
37.3
37.5
36.1

35.8
33.6
41.4
35.4

38.4
34.8
41.7
34.6

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

35.6
41.3
41.2
41.3
40.3

36.1
41.7
42.2
40*6
39.3

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

40.9
42.1
43.4
46.4
46.9

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

286. CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT
(ANNUAL RATE« BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

288. NET INTEREST
(ANNUAL RATEf BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

1945.....
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
15.3
22.6
31.5
32.8

*• .
18.8
25.8
33.4
30.5

...
20.2
26.1
32.9
31.7

...
22.9
27.7
34.4
28.4

19.2
19.3
25.6
33.0
30.8

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
1.5
2.0
1.9
1.9

...
1.5
2.0
1.8
2.0

...
1.6
1.9
1.8
2.0

...
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.9

2.2
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.9

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

31.7
42.5
41.1
42.9
35.6

35.5
42.4
38.7
41.9
36.6

40.0
42.8
38.1
40.5
38.2

43.4
43.5
42.1
33.2
41.3

37.7
42.7
39.9
39.6
38.0

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

2.0
2.2
2.4
2.7
3.3

2.0
2.2
2.5
2.7
3.5

2.0
2.3
2.6
2.7
3.8

2.0
2.4
2.7
3.1
4.0

2.0
2.3
2.6
2.8
3.6

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

46.0
46.0
47.7
36.4
50.4

46.9
46.1
46.6
37.8
55.2

47.2
45.5
45.9
42.0
50.6

48.1
46.3
42.1
47.6
50.3

46.9
46.1
45.6
41.1
51.7

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

4.0
4.2
5.1
6.3
7.1

4.0
4.4
5.4
6.6
7.0

4.1
4.6
5.7
7.0
7.0

4.1
5.0
6.1
7.3
7.3

4.1
4.6
5.6
6.8
7.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

53.3
45.0
54.3
56.0
64.9

51.6
49.3
54.9
58.0
66.2

48.6
51.1
56.1
60.3
67.6

46.1
55.4
57.4
61.4
66.4

49.9
50.3
55.7
58.9
66.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964.....

7.9
9.2
10.8
13.0
15.1

8.0
9.7
11.3
13.5
15.5

8.5
10.2
11.8
14.2
16.0

9.0
10.8
12.4
14.7
16.6

8.4
10.0
11.6
13.8
15.8

1965
1966.....
1967
1968
1969

73.1
81.5
78.3
81.1
83.0

74.4
82.1
78.0
85.4
82.8

76.5
82.5
78.4
85.9
79.8

80.3
83.7
80.0
84.7
73.5

76.1
82.4
78.7
84.3
79.8

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

17.3
19.9
23.3
26.1
28.9

17.9
21.0
24.0
26.6
30.0

18.5
21.8
24.8
27.1
31.1

19.0
22.8
25.6
27.8
32.3

18.2
21.4
24.4
26.9
30.5

1970
1971
1972

69.3

71.5

72.0

66.9

69.9

1970
1971
1972

33.2

34.2

35.3

36.5

34.8

290. GROSS SAVING — PRIVATE SAVING PLUS GOVERNMENT SURPLUS
OR DEFICIT (ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

292. PERSONAL SAVING
(ANNUAL RATE* BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

AVERAGE

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
26.6
42.5
49.4
42.2

...
35.6
40.0
51.8
34.7

...
38.3
40.1
49.9
35.8

. ..
39.8
45.3
48.8
31.3

...
35.1
42.0
50.0
36.0

1945*...*
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
17.9
10.4
9.1
11*4

...
16.7
4.5
12.8
9.1

...
13.4
8.1
16.4
9.3

...
12.8
6.6
15.4
8.1

29.6
15.2
7.3
13.4
9.4

1950
1951
1952
1953.....
1954

39.4
56.4
54.0
48.9
44.6

47.8
60.1
46.7
49.9
46.9

51.9
55.5
47.3
49.1
48.2

62.1
52.9
50.1
42.1
54.6

50.3
56.2
49.5
47.5
48.6

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

17.8
10.3
18.1
16.8
18.6

12.9
20.1
16.5
19.0
15.7

6.7
19.4
20.6
18.5
15.3

14.7
18.9
17.0
19.2
16.0

13.1
17.3
18.1
18.3
16.4

1955
1956.....
1957
1958
1959.....

58.7
70.7
73.0
58.0
69.6

64.3
71.9
72.7
54.1
78.5

66.9
73.2
72.9
58.3
71.5

69.9
74.6
65.9
66.0
75.3

65.0
72.6
71.1
59.1
73.7

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.....

13.7
18.7
20.4
21.2
20.6

14.9
20.4
21.8
20.7
21.2

16.8
21.2
21.5
23.2
15.9

17.3
22.0
19.9
24.1
18.4

15.8
20.6
20.7
22.3
19.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

83.6
67.9
83.2
84.4
95.8

80.0
73.7
85.9
90.0
98.8

76.7
77.2
86.1
91.2
102.2

70.2
82.5
85.2
96.6
107.3

77.6
75.3
85.1
90.6
101.0

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

18.1
18.4
22.3
19.3
22.0

16.5
20.2
23.9
19.2
27.7

18.3
22.1
20.9
18.8
25.6

16.0
23.3
18.9
22.5
29.5

17.0
21.2
21.6
19.9
26.2

1965
1966
1967
1968.....
1969

112.8
121.0
117.1
122.4
138.1

114.3
126.3
114.0
129.4
143.1

115.5
123.5
120.8
129.3
149.0

118.7
128.8
125.8
132.1
145.5

115.3
124.9
119.4
128.3
143.9

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

24.7
29.6
39.3
41.2
32.4

24.9
31.2
37.6
44.6
33.3

32.3
31.6
41.3
35.9
42.6

31.8
37.7
43.3
37.3
44.6

28.4
32.5
40.4
39.8
38.2

1970
1971
1972

141.3

144.3

144.5

138.2

142.1

1970
1971
1972

46.3

55.9

58.0

59.2

54.9




(OCTOBER 1972)

107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

Quarterly

Quarterly
Year

IQ

II Q

III Q

IV Q

230A. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

...
68)3

Annual

Year

IQ

II Q

...

...

69.4
68.8
66.9
70.1

1945
1946* ...»
1947
1948
1949

6.7
10.2
10.5
10.3

7.7
10.1
10.2
10.1

68.0
61.7
62.7
63.1
65.1

64.7
62.1
62.9
63.8
64.8

67.1
62.8
62.7
63.0
64.8

1950»..»»
1951
1952
1953
1954

9.2
9.7
9.5
9.2
9.3

64.1
63.5
63.5
65.6
63.6

63.8
63.6
63.6
64.7
65.0

63.7
63.5
64.6
63.8
64.5

63.9
63.6
63.8
64.9
64.3

1955
1956
1957
1958* ••••
1959

63.8
65.2
63.6
63.8
63.4

64,7
64.5
63.1
63.7
63.3

64.6
64.2
63.3
63.6
63.6

65.1
63.8
63.5
63.0
63.4

64.6
64.4
63.4
63.5
63.4

1965
1966
1967.....
1968
1969

63.3
62.8
62.1
62.3
62.2

63.3
62.1
62.4
61.7
62.3

63.1
62.3
61.9
62.2
62.0

63.0
61.6
61.6
62.1
62.6

1970
1971
1972

63.1

63.1

63.2

63.3

69.8
67.6
69.3

...
69.0
70.1
66.9
68.5

68.3
65.3
62.0
62.7
64.4

67.5
62.3
63.3
62.6
65.1

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

64.1
63.8
63.4
65.4
64.1

I960.....
1961
1962
1963
1964.....

68.3
69.3
68.2
67.9

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

...

244A. RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

IV Q

241A. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT
As PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

AVERAGE
...
68.8
69.5
67.4
69.0

...

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

III Q

Annual

AVERAGE

8.6
10.0
10.3
9.5

...
9)4

sii

10.1
10.7
9.3

10.1
10.4
9.8

9.7
9.8
9.6
9.2
9.3

10.2
9.7
8.6
9.5
9.3

10.1
9.5
8.9
9.5
9.1

9.8
9.7
9.2
9.4
9.2

8.9
10.2
10.5
9.9
9.1

9.4
10.4
10.5
9.4
9.3

9.8
10.6
10.6
9.0
9.5

10.2
10.5
10.5
9.0
9.4

9.6
10.4
10.5
9.3
9.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

9.5
9.1
9.0
9.0
9.4

9.7
8.9
9.2
9.2
9.6

9.6
9.1
9.4
9.2
9.8

9,6
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.8

9.6
9.0
9.2
9.2
9.6

63.2
62.2
62.0
62.1
62.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

10.1
10.8
10.7
10.6
10.5

10.3
10.8
10.6
10.1
10.5

10.5
11.0
10.4
10.1
10.6

10.7
10.9
10.3
10.2
10.7

10.4
10.9
10.5
10.2
10.6

63.2

1970
1971
1972

10.5

10.5

10.5

10.0

10.4

19

245A. CHANGE IN BUSINESS INVENTORIES
AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
2.8
4.2
5.6
5.0

...
3.4
4.2
5.9
5.0

...
3.7
4.9
5.7
5.3

...
3.9
5.7
5.2
6.0

...
3.4
4.8
5.6
5.3

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

6.5
6.1
4.9
5.0
4.9

7.0
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.2

7.2
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.6

6.6
4.8
5.0
4.9
5.8

6.8
5.2
5.0
5.0
5.4

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

6.0
5.3
4.7
4.5
5.3

6.1
5.3
4.6
4.4
5.4

5.8
5.1
4.5
4.6
5.3

5.5
4.9
4.5
5.0
5.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

4.9
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.5

4.6
4.3
4.6
4.6
4.3

4.4
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.2

1965
1966
1967.....
1968
1969.....

4.1
3.8
2.8
3.5
3.6

4.0
3.5
3.0
3.6
3.6

1970
1971
1972

3.3

3.1

...

AVERAGE

...
3.0
0.2
1.3
0.0

...
4.3
-0.4
2.0
-2.1

...
2.8
-1.2
2.3
-0.7

...
2.1
0.6
1.6
-2.1

3^0
-0.2
1.8
-1.2

1950
1951»».»»
1952
1953
1954

0.9
3.3
1.5
0.7
-0.7

1.7
4.7
-0.7
0.9
-0.7

1.7
3.1
1.2
0.2
-0.6

5.0
1.5
1.5
-1.2
0.3

2.3
3.2
0.9
0.2
-0.4

5.8
5.2
4.6
4.6
5.3

1955
1956
1957
1958... ••
1959

1.2
1.5
0.5
-1.2
0.8

1.5
1.0
0.5
-1.2
1.9

1.5
1.0
0.7
0.0
0.1

1.7
1.0
-0.5
0.9
1.3

1.5
1.1
0.3
-0.4
1.0

4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.2

4.6
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.3

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

2.0
-0.7
1.2
0.8
0.8

0.8
0.4
1.1
0.8
1.0

0.6
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.8

-0.5
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.2

0,7
0.4
1.1
1.0
1.0

3.9
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.5

3.9
2.9
3.5
3.5
3.3

4.0
3.4
3.2
3.5
3.5

1965....*
1966
1967
1968
1969

1.6
1.5
1.2
0.3
0.8

1.3
2.2
0.6
1.1
0.9

1.3
1.6
1.1
0.9
1.1

1.4
2.6
1.2
0.9
0.6

1.4
2.0
1.0
0.8
0.8

3.1

3.4

3.2

1970
1971«....
1972

0.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

250A. NET EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
AS PERCENT OF GNP (RERCENT)

AVERAGE

262A. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
3.5
5.1
3.3
2.9

...
3.7
5.3
2.4
2.8

...
4.1
5.4
2.2
2.4

. ..
3.1
4.2
2.1
1.5

...
3.6
5.0
2.5
2.4

1945
1946
1947
1948.....
1949

...
11.3
5.5
5.4
7.5

...
8.0
5.7
6.1
8.1

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

1.2
0.3
1.4
0.1
0.3

0.9
1.0
0.9
0.0
0.5

0.2
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.5

0.3
1.6
0.0
0.2
0.7

0.6
1.1
0.6
0.1
0.5

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

6.9
8.7
14.1
15.6
14.5

1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959

0.7
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.0

0.4
0.9
1.4
0.5
-0.2

0.5
1.0
1.2
0.5
0.1

0.4
1.3
1.0
0.3
0.1

0.5
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.0

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

I960.....
1961
1962
1963
1964

0.5
1.3
0.8
0.8
1.4

0.7
1.1
1.0
1*1
1.2

0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.4

1.2
1.0
0.9
1.2
1.3

0.8
1.1
0.9
1.0
1.3

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.2
0.1

1.2
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.1

1.1
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.3

0.8
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.3

1970
1971.....
1972

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

...

...

AVERAGE

7.0
5.3
6.6
7.9

...
7.1
5.1
7.4
7.9

...
3)4
5.4
6.4
7.8

6.2
10.5
15.1
15.7
13.2

6.0
12.6
15.7
15.4
12.5

6.7
13.9
15.2
15.8
11.8

6.4
11.4
15.0
15.6
13.0

11.4
10.8
11.3
11.8
11.5

11.0
11.0
11.3
12.1
11.1

11.0
10.8
11.1
12.0
11.0

10.9
10.8
11.2
12.0
10.8

11.1
10.8
11.2
12.0
11.1

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

10.5
11.0
11.3
11.3
10.5

10.5
11.1
11.5
10.9
10.5

10.7
11.0
11.2
10.8
10.2

10.8
11.0
11.3
10.6
10.0

10.6
11.0
11.3
10.9
10.3

1.0
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.2

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

9.7
10.0
11.3
11.5
10.9

9.7
10.2
11.5
11.5
10.6

9.8
10.6
11.4
11.4
10.5

9.9
10.7
11.5
11.3
10.5

9.8
10.4
11.4
11.4
10.6

0.4

1970
1971
1972

10.4

9.9

9.7

9,6

9.9

(OCTOBER 1972)




108

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued

Quarterly
Year

1 Q

II Q

Quarterly

III Q

IV Q

266A. STATE AND LOCAL GOV T PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
AS PERCENT OF GNP (PERCENT)

Annual

Year

1 Q

4.6
5.4
5.7
6.8

4.7
5.5
5.9
7.1

5.0
5.5
6.1
7.3

4.7
5.4
5.8
6.9

7.1
6.5
6.6
6*6
7.3

7.0
6.5
6.8
6.6
7.5

6.7
6.6
6.6
6.8
7.7

6.6
6.5
6.5
7.0
7.6

6.8
6.5
6.6
6.8
7.5

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

7.6
7.7
8.1
8.9
9.1

7.6
7.8
8.2
9.1
8.9

7.5
7.9
8.3
9.1
9.0

7.5
7.9
8.6
9.1
8.8

7.6
7.8
8.3
9.0
9.0

1955
1956
1957
1958

1961
1962
1963

8.8
9.7
9.6
9.9
9.9

9.1
9.6
9.5
9.8
10.1

9.2
9.7
9.6
9.9
10.1

9.4
9.7
9.6
9.9
10.1

9.1
9.7
9.6
9.9
10.0

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

10.1
10.3
11.2
11.6
11.8

10.2
10.5
11.2
11.6
12.0

10.3
10.6
11.2
11.6
11.9

10.3
10.8
11.4
11.8
12.1

1970
1971

12.3

12.4

12.6

12.9

1949
1950
1951
1952.....

1953
1954.....

1955
1956.....

1957
1958
1959
I960.....

1964.....

Annual

AVERAGE

64*4

64.8
65.1
62.1
64.9

64.1
64.8
63.0
64.6

63.9
64.6
63.1
65.4

64.8
64.8
62.9
64.8

64.7
64.5
66.6
67.6
69.1

64.4
65.1
67.0
68.3
68.9

63.7
65.2
67.0
68.7
68.4

63.7
65.1
67.5
69.9
68.0

64.1
65.0
67.0
68.6
68.6

1959.....

67.3
69.0
69.6
70.8
69.5

67.7
69.3
69.8
70.4
69,2

68.0
69.4
69.9
70.0
70.1

68.1
69.6
70.5
69.3
70.3

67.8
69.3
70.0
70.1
69.8

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

70.4
71.5
70.7
70.9
70.5

70.7
70.9
70.8
70.8
70.5

71.3
70.7
70.7
70.6
70.6

71.5
70.3
70.6
70.7
70.9

71.0
70.8
70.7
70.8
70.6

10.2
10.6
11.2
11.6
12.0

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

69.9
69.6
71.3
72.1
73.1

69.8
70.1
71.3
72.1
73.4

69.8
70.4
71.5
72.4
74.1

69.7
70.6
71.7
72.8
74.9

69.8
70.2
71.4
72.4
73.9

12.6

1970.....

75.5

75.4

75.5

76.0

75.6

66.5
64.5
63.5

1971
1972

1972.....
282A. PROPRIETERS INCOME
AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT)

284A. RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS
AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT)

AVERAGE

...
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.8

...
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.9

...
3.7
3.7
3.6
4.1

...
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.9

4.1
3.7
3.8
4.0
4.4

4.0
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.5

3.8
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.6

3.7
3.8
4.0
4.4
4.5

3.9
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.5

1959.....

4.3
4.1
4.0
4.3
3.9

4.2
4.1
4.0
4.3
3.8

4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
3.9

4.1
4.0
4.1
4. 1
3.9

4.2
4.1
4.0
4.2
3.9

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

3.8
3.9
3.6
3.6
3.5

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5

3.9
3.6
3.7
3.5
3.5

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5

10.2
9.9
9.5
9.0
8.8

1965
1966
1969.....

3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.9

3.4
3.2
3.3
3.0
3.0

3.4
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.9

3.3
3.2
3.2
2.9
2.9

3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.9

8.4

1970

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

1949.....

...
20.1
17.2
18.5
16.3

...
20.6
17.5
18.3
15.9

...
19.7
17.5
17.5
16.4

...
20.1
17.8
17.9
16.2

1950
1951
1952
1953
1954

16.0
15.3
14.4
13.5
13.5

15.5
15.1
14.7
13.2
13.1

15.5
15.0
15.0
13.0
13.2

15.1
15.0
13.7
13.5
12.9

15.5
15.1
14.4
13.3
13.2

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

12.8
12.3
11.9
13.0
12.0

12.7
12.1
12.0
12.9
11.6

12.6
12.2
12.1
12.6
11.5

12.4
12.1
12.2
12.3
11.4

12.6
12.2
12.0
12.7
11.6

1955
1956
1957
1958

1960
1961
1962
1963
1964

11.0
11.5
11.2
10.8
10.2

11.2
11.4
11.1
10.6
10.1

11.2
11.3
10.8
10.5
10.0

11.3
11.2
10.7
10.4
10.0

11.2
11.4
11.0
10.6
10.1

1965
1966

10.1
10.3
9.5
9.2
9.0

10.2
10.0
9.6
9.1
8.8

10.2
9.7
9.6
9.0
8.7

10.1
9.5
9.4
8.9
8.6

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.2

1947.....

1948

1967.....

1968
1969
1970
1971
1972

AVERAGE

...
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.7

1945
1946
1947

...
19.9
19.2
17.4
16.3

1945
1946. ....

1948«...»

1949
1950
1951.....

1952
1953
1954

1967.....

1968

1971.....

1972
286A. CORPORATE PROFITS AND INVEN. VALUATION ADJ.
AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT)

288A. NET INTEREST
AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT)

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949. ....

...
9.0
11.6
14.6
14.8

...
10.' 6
13.2
15.0
14.1

...
10.8
13.1
14.4
14.6

...
11.9
13.4
15.0
13.3

...
10.6
12.8
14.8
14.2

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

...
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9

1950

14.3
15.7
14.4
14.0
11.9

15.3
15.4
13.5
13.6
12.2

16.1
15.3
13.1
13.2
12.6

16.6
15.2
14.0
11.1
13.3

15.6
15.4
13.8
13.0
12.5

1950«»...

1951
1952
1953

14.4
13.4
13.1
10.2
12.8

14.3
13.2
12.7
10.5
13.6

14.1
12.9
12.4
11.3
12.7

14.1
12.9
11.6
12.4
12.5

14.2
13.1
12.4
11.1
12.9

12.9
10.9
12.1
11.9
12.9

12.4
11.7
12.0
12.1
12.9

11.7
11.9
12.2
12.4
12.9

11.2
12.5
12.3
12.4
12.5

1967
1968
1969

13.4
13.5
12.3
11.8
11.1

13.4
13.3
12.1
12.1
10.9

13.4
13.2
11.9
11.9
10.3

1970

8.8

9.0

8.9

1951.....

1952
1953
1954
1955.....

1956
1957
1958
1959
I960

1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966.....

1.0
0.8
0.9

...
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.9

...
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.9

1954* ....

0.9
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.1

0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.2

0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.3

0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.3

0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.2

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959

1.2
1.2
1.4
1.8
1.8

1.2
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.7

1.2
1.3
1.5
1.9
1.8

1.2
1.4
1.7
1.9
1.8

1.2
1.3
1.5
1.8
1.8

12.0
11.8
12.2
12.2
12.8

1960
1961
1962
1964

1.9
2.2
2.4
2.8
3.0

1.9
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.0

2.0
2.4
2.6
2.9
3.1

2.2
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.1

2.0
2.3
2.6
2.9
3.0

13.7
13.1
11.9
11.6
9.4

13.5
13.3
12.0
11.8
10.4

1965
1966
1967
1968
1969

3.2
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.9

3.2
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.9

3.3
3.5
3.8
3.8
4.0

3.2
3.6
3.8
3.8
4.1

3.2
3.4
3.7
3.8
4.0

8.3

8.8

1970.....

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.4




1963.....

...
o".8

1971
1972

1972
These

AVERAGE

...
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9

1971.....
Note:

IV Q

NATIONAL INCOME (PERCENT)

4.5
5.3
5.6
6.5

1948.....

III Q

280A. COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES
AS PERCENT OF

AVERAGE

1945
1946
1947
1948
1949

1945
1946
1947

II Q

.nnual revisioi

(OCTOBER 1972)

109

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
Industrial Production Indexes

Indexes of industrial production are designed to measure
changes in the value added in industrial activity expressed in
constant prices (the quantum of production). With very few
exceptions, the indexes are calculated according to the
Laspeyres formula, which is a weighted arithmetic average.
A fixed base period is generally used in connection with the
Laspeyres formula, although moving base periods are
employed in some countries.
The weights used in computing the index are generally
proportional to the value added at factor cost in different
industries determined from industrial census results, i.e.,
"census value added." These values are obtained by deducting the cost of the consumption of raw materials, fuels,
containers, and subcontracted work and other industrial
services from the value of gross output. All industrial
production indexes are shown in BCD with a 1967«100 base.
Seasonal adjustments, when not made by the source agency,
are made by the OECD.
122. United Kingdom
This index covers the following industries: Mining;
manufacturing, excluding slaughtering, fish curing and
bottling by wholesalers, tea blending and coffee roasting,
milk pasteurizing and bottling, custom tailoring and dressmaking, repair of motorcars, repair of musical instruments
and jewelry, and other repair work; electricity, gas, and
water; and construction.
The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic
average (1958*100), the weight base year being 1958. The
first step in calculating the index is to adjust the indicators
of output (approximately 880) by means of a ratio of output for
respondent establishments during the current month to their
output during the last month for which complete information
is available. The adjusted series (relatives) are combined
into indexes for detailed groups of industrial activity; and
these indexes, in turn, are combined into indexes for major
groups. Finally, the major group indexes are combined into
indexes for the broader classes and for total industrial
activity.
The basic series used in computing the index are series on
quantity of output or deliveries for about five-sixths of the
industries covered by the index, and input of raw materials
and labor for the other one-sixth. These series accounted
directly for about 90 percent of total industrial activity in
1958.
The weights used at each stage of the calculation are
proportional to the contributions to the gross domestic
product at factor cost in 1958. The weights have been estimated from value added in 3- or 4-digit industry groups
determined from the 1958 Census of Production and ad justed
to exclude the cost of services purchased from other establishments.

including, prior to 1961, construction undertaken as an
ancillary activity of establishments classified in any other
division of industry; and electricity, gas, and water. The
indexes cover, in principle, all establishments.
The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic
average (1961 = 100), the weight base year being 1961. The
indexes are linked at 1961 to indexes 1949-100. The weights
are derived from the gross domestic product at factor cost in
1961. At the 4-digit industry level the weights are generally
based on gross domestic product at factor cost in 1961
distributed on the basis of census value added in each
industry. The weights of unrepresented products within each
industry are allocated to the represented products by a
pro-rata adjustment of the value added for the industry to
each represented product. The industry indexes are then
combined into 2-digit industry group indexes, and these,
in turn, into indexes for the broader classes of industrial
activity.
The data used in calculating the indexes are quantity of
gross output of individual products, man-hours worked,
quantity of shipments of individual products, quantity of
individual raw materials consumed, and value of gross
production of individual commodities adjusted for price
changes. The data are compiled mainly from the results of
official inquiries.
Source: Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa).
125. West Germany
This index covers the following industries: Mining;
manufacturing; construction; and electricity and gas. All
establishments, except handicrafts, are included.
The comparison base is 1962-100; the weight base year
is 1962; and the index is linked at 1950 to indexes 1950-100,
and at 1962 to indexes 1958-100.
The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic
average, starting from a series of relatives of indicators of
output. The relatives are combined into industry group
indexes, then into division indexes, and finally into the index
for total industrial activity.
Adjustments are made to the monthly detailed industry
group indexes for differences in the length of the working
period in each month.
The indicator series include the following: Quantum of
output, deflated value of output, deflated value of sales, manhours worked, and raw materials consumed.
The weights used to combine industry and broader group
indexes are based on value added at market prices in 1962.
The weights for combining individual products are based on
an estimate of value added for each product chosen as an
indicator of output.

Source: Central Statistical Office (London).
123. Canada

Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden).

This index covers the following industries: Mining,
excluding, prior to 1961, prospecting and contract drilling;
manufacturing, excluding work done in the home and repairs
connected with a service trade (beginning with 1961, repair
work is included in the division of activity where the major
part of each kind of repair activity is carried out), but
including repairs carried on under essentially industrial
conditions such as ship and locomotive repairs; construction,

This index covers the following industries: Mining,
manufacturing, excluding food and beverages, clothing, wood
and wood products, and miscellaneous manufactures; and
electricity and gas.

110




126. France

The comparison base is 1959*100; the weight base year
is 1959. The index is linked at 1955 to indexes 1952^100, and
at 1949 to indexes 1938*100.

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series—Continued

The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic
average, starting from a series of relatives of indicators of
output. The elementary series of relatives are combined
into indexes for detailed categories of individual activity, and
then through successive stages of combination into indexes
for the divisions and for total industrial activity.

into the general index. The monthly indexes are not adjusted
for inequalities in the number of working days in each
month or for seasonal variation.
The indicators used in calculating the indexes are ma inly
quantities of individual commodities produced. A total of
230 commodity indicators are included in the monthly index.

Adjustments are made to the monthly indexes for differences in the number of working days in each month. Indexes
adjusted for seasonal variation are also published. Monthly
provisional data are adjusted as soon as more complete data
become available. Annual indexes are calculated separately
based on final annual data. The monthly indexes are adjusted,
where necessary, to the levels indicated by the annual
indexes.

The weights used in combining the indicators into indexes
for each subgroup are based on gross value of production,
after eliminating duplications of values which occur in the
combining of products. The weights for combining subgroup
indexes into indexes for major groups are derived from
value-added data in 1963 adjusted to 1965; for calculating the
general index, the weights are derived from value added
in 1965.

A total of 248 individual commodities produced are used in
calculating the indexes. The monthly indexes cover approximately 90 percent of all industrial production. Indexes for
the most recent month are provisional and are based on about
80 percent of the total series.

Source: Instituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome).

The weights used for combining the elementary series of
relatives into indexes for individual product groups, and these
indexes into indexes for subbranches and branches of industrial activity, are based mainly on data on wages and salaries
in 1959. The weights used in combining the indexes-for
industry branches into division indexes and into the index for
total industrial activity are proportional to the value added at
factor cost in 1959.
Source: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes
Economiques (Paris).
127. Italy
This index covers the following industries: Mining;
manufacturing, except printing and publishing, repair shops,
and some subgroups of miscellaneous manufacturing; and
electricity and gas. The index covers 100 percent of the
output in mining, 89 percent of manufacturing output, and 92
percent of the electricity and gas produced.
The comparison base is 1966 «100; the weight base year is
1965. The index islinkedat 1966 to indexes 1953«100 and at
1953 to indexes 1938 -100.
The index is calculated as a base-weighted arithmetic
average, starting from a series of relatives of indicators of
output. The series of relatives are combined into indexes
of detailed categories of industrial activity and the latter
are combined into indexes for subgroups and groups of
industrial activity. The group indexes are then combined
into indexes for broader classes of industrial activity and




128. Japan
This index covers the following industries: Mining;
manufacturing, excluding printing and publishing; and electricity and gas. In principle, all privately owned establishments, irrespective of size, are included.
The comparison base is 1965 «100; the weight base year is
1965; and the index is linked at January 1963 to indexes
1960-100.
The index is calculated as base-weighted arithmetic
averages, starting from an elementary series of relatives
based on quantities of individual commodities produced. The
elementary series of relatives are combined into indexes for
major groups, the major group indexes into division indexes,
and these into an index for mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas.
No adjustments are made for differences in the number of
working days in each month.
The series used in the computation of the indexes include
data on the production of 404 individual commodities. Data on
the production of 350 of these commodities are compiled by
the Ministry of International Trade and Industry; the other
data are gathered chiefly from trade associations and other
government agencies.
The weights used in computing the index are based on the
gross value of production or value added at factor cost in the
base year 1965.
Source: Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo).

Ill

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series

Money Stock Measures

Series 85--Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency)
Series 102--Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks other than large CD's
Series 103--Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large
CD's plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions.
These series measure the month-to-month percent
change, at annual rate in the money supply--i.e., in the total
of the public's holdings of coin, currency, and demand deposits in banks. The Federal Reserve Board publishes
three (Mlf M 2 , and M 3 ) measures of money supply, and
these are the basic data used in computing series 85, 102,
and 103 shown in the BCD.
M-l--is money stock narrowly defined to include currency in circulation outside banks plus (1) demand deposits
at all commercial banks other than those due to domestic
commercial banks and the U.S. Government, less cash items
in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; (2)
foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve banks; and
(3) currency outside Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks,
and vaults of all commercial banks. BCD series 85 is
computed from this measure of money supply.
M-2--represents a broader measure of money supply.
It includes M x plus commercial banks' savings deposits,
time deposits open account, and time certificates of deposit other than negotiable certificate of deposits issued
in demoninations of $100,000 or more by large weekly reporting commercial banks. The month-to-month percentage
change in this measure of money supply is shown as series
102 in BCD.

moving average method. The core data in the money supply
series consists of: (1) monthly averages of the daily
amounts of currency in circulation outside the Treasury
and Federal Reserve Banks; and (2) monthly averages of
daily levels of member banks' demand deposits (except
those due to banks), cash items in process of collection,
and vault cash. Reported data used in the money supply
series come from the following sources: Reserve bank
summaries of member bank reports in their respective
districts; Member Bank Call Reports; the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation's Assets and Liabilities of all Operating Banks and Trust Companies"; daily Treasury figures on currency in circulation; daily figures on tax and
loan balances from Treasury Department records; and data
from Reserve Bank records on Federal Reserve float.
Measures of M! and M 2 are averages of daily data for
member banks. Estimates of nonmember bank deposits
are based on June and December call report data and the
relationship of nonmember and country bank deposits on
those dates. Estimates of M! and M 2 are provided weekly
and monthly. Data for M3 are provided only monthly since
figures for deposits at nonbank thrift institutions are available only at the end of each month. To derive a monthly
average more comparable to M± and M 2 , the end-of-the
month data are averaged--e.g., the January figure is the
average of end-of-December and end-of-January levels, etc.
BCD series 85, 102, and 103 are derived by computing
percent changes, at annual rate, of published monthly dollar
figures. Weekly estimates for series 85 and 102 are also
provided by averaging the total money supply for weeks to
date and computing the annualized percent change from the
same time period in the previous month. When a complete
month of weekly data are available but the monthly figure
has not been published by the Federal Reserve Board, the
percent change is computed using the weekly average for
the current month and the published figure for the preceding
month.

M-3--Includes M 2 plus the average of the beginning and
end-of-month deposits at mutual savings banks and savings
and loan shares. BCD series 103 presents month-to-month
percent change in this measure of money supply.

BCD series 85, 102, and 103 are computed from data
which have been seasonally adjusted by the source agency.

Money supply measures exclude deposits of the U.S.
Government, but include those of State and local governments
because U.S. Government deposits do not represent money
in the hands of the public while State and local deposits are
not unlike those of large corporations.

Weekly and monthly data for M x and M 2 and monthly data
for M 3 are published in the Federal Reserve weekly statistical release "Money Stock Measures" and in the monthly
Federal Reserve Bulletin.

The three money stock measures are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board using the ratio-to-

SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Banking Section.

112



D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
Consumer Credit

66. Consumer Installment Debt, Outstanding
This series is a measure of all short- and intermediateterm credit used to finance the purchase of commodities
and services for personal consumption or to refinance
debts originally incurred for such purposes.
The term "credit" means an advance of purchasing
power that could be used to obtain goods and services, or
an advance of goods and services in exchange for a promise
to pay at a later date. The term "consumption1* means the
process of using up goods and services as an end to itself
rather than as a stage in production. Credit extended to
governmental agencies and nonprofit or charitable organizations, as well as credit extended to businesses or individuals
exclusively for business purposes, is excluded.
Installment credit includes all consumer credit held by
financial institutions and retail outlets that is scheduled to
be repaid in two or more installments. Revolving credit and
budget and coupon accounts are classified as installment
credit.
Specific categories of consumer installment credit include automobile paper, other consumer goods paper,
personal loans, and home repair and modernization loans.
It does not include home mortgages.
Consumer installment credit data for amounts outstanding
are published without adjustment for seasonal variation by the
Federal Reserve System.
These data are seasonally
adjusted for BCD by the National Bureau of Economic
Research for the period January 1948 through January
1955 by Univac Method II; and the seasonally adjusted
series is carried forward from February 1955 by adding
the FRB seasonally adjusted data on net change in consumer
installment credit outstanding to the seasonally adjusted
total consumer installment credit outstanding for the
previous month.
Consumer installment debt is classified as a lagging
indicator of the business cycle.
SOURCE: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System.
113. Net Change in Consumer Installment Debt

business day of each month. It includes openings for all
kinds of positions, classifications, and employment--full
time, part time, permanent, temporary and seasonal. Not
included in the series are the following job vacancies: (a)
those to be filled by transfers, promotions, demotions,
returns from paid or unpaid leave, recalls from layoffs;
(b) those resulting from labor-management disputes; (c)
those which have been filled by "new" workers scheduled
to begin work at some future date, and (d) those anticipated
to occur sometime in the future.
A job vacancy is an opening that is available immediately
for filling and for which the firm is actively seeking workers
from outside the firm by means of orders listed with public
or private employment agencies and placement offices,
notification of labor unions and professional organizations,
"help wanted" advertising, and the interview and selection
of applicants.
The number of job vacancies in manufacturing is classified in Business Conditions Digest as a roughly coincident
indicator^ and is a component of the total demand for
labor.
Data for the series are collected primarily at the State
level by means of questionnaires which are sent to the
various manufacturing establishments. The State agency
uses the information to develop job vacancy rates for
selected metropolitan areas within the State and forwards
the data to the Bureau of Labor Statistics for use in
preparing the rates at the national level.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
63. Index of Unit Labor Cost, Total Private Economy
This series measures the cost of labor input required
to produce one unit of output. It is derived by dividing compensation per man-hour by output per man-hour.
Compensation per man-hour measures the hourly costs
of wages and salaries, in addition to supplemental payments,
such as the contributions of employers to social security,
unemployment insurance tax, and payment for private health
and pension plans. Compensation data include an estimate
of wages, salaries, and supplements of the self-employed.
(See series 745 below.)
Output per man-hour reflects the ratio between dollar
gross product originating in the private or individual sectors
and the corresponding hours of all persons employed.
(See series 770 below.)

This series measures the change during the month
in the amount of consumer installment debt outstanding
(series 66). Each monthly change is determined by
subtracting the consumer installment credit repaid during
the month from the new credit extended.

The data are published quarterly by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Department of Labor,in Employment and Earnings.

The data are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve
Board by a modified ratio-to-moving-average method.

745. Index of Average Hourly Compensation, All Employees,
Private Nonfarm Economy

Net Change in Consumer Installment Debt is classified
as a leading indicator of the business cycle.

This index reflects the percent change in average hourly
compensation earned to all persons in an employee status
in the private nonfarm economy, including government
enterprise and private household workers.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System.
Employment and Earnings

50. Number of Job Vacancies in Manufacturing
This series is a measure of the number of unfilled
wage and salary jobs which exist on the close of the last




Compensation is the total of wages and salaries plus
supplements to wages and salaries. Wages and salaries
consists of the monetary remuneration of employees, inclusive of executives' compensation, commissions, tips
and bonuses, and of payment sin kind which represent income
to the receipients. Supplements to wages and salaries
consists of employer contributions to social insurance

113

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series—Continued
(social security, Federal and State unemployment insurance,
railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, government retirement, and other social insurance programs);
and contributions to private pension, health, unemployment,
and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; directors fees;
pay of the military reserve; and a few other minor items.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
develops compensation of employees data as part of its
national income accounts. The Department of Labor's Bureau
of Labor Statistics then uses these estimates and labor
input (man-hours) estimates to compute the index of average
hourly compensation.
746. Index of Real Average Hourly Compensation, All
Employees, Private Nonfarm Economy
This series reflects the percent change in average hourly
income (see series 745, above) after adjustment for changes
in the consumer price index. (The deflator is seasonally
adjusted and is not published in BCD or elsewhere.)
Data for both series are available quarterly from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.
770. Index of Output Per Man-hour, Total Private Economy
This series measures, for the total private economy, the
constant dollar valuation of final goods and services produced within a certain time period in relation to the manhours paid for including hours paid for holidays, vacations,
and sick leave. The index shows the change in the ratio of
output to labor input (man-hours). Index changes through
time show the effectiveness of man-hours in producing
current levels of output.
The output concept used in preparing this index is that
of real gross national product originating in the private
economy or individual sectors. The primary source of manhours and employment data is the Bureau of Labor Statistics
(CCS) program which provides data on employment (all
employees and production or nonsupervisory workers) and
average weekly hours of production workers in nonagricultural establishments.
For uncovered sectors (farm,
proprietors, unpaid family workers, and private household
workers) data from the national income accounts or the CPS
are used as supplements to develop employment and
man-hours estimates for the total private economy.
The data are published quarterly in the BLS press
release Productivity and Costs, Employment and Earnings,
and the Monthly Labor Review.
859. Real Spendable Average Weekly Earning of Production or Nonsupervisory Workers (With 3 Dependents)
on Private Nonagricultural Payrolls.
This series is an estimate of current earnings available
for spending. It measures the average weekly earnings of
production or nonsupervisory workers on payrolls of all
private nonagricultural establishments after deductions for
Federal income taxes (at the rate applicable to married
workers with 3 dependents) and social security taxes and
after adjustments of earnings by means-of the Consumer
Price Index. These data however cannot be used to measure
changes in the standard of living as a whole because other
factors as total family income, duration and extent of unemployment, and the extension and incidence of various
social services and benefits must be taken into account.

114




Real spendable earnings are derived from gross average
weekly earnings, which measure only regularly recurring
payments to workers and exclude irregular bonuses, retroactive pay, and employers' contributions for welfare
benefits. Union dues also are not subtracted from gross
earnings because they are not uniform. The real spendable
earnings series does not take into account all deductions
from pay but only the most important personal taxes for
which deductions are made at standard rates nationwide.
Due to wide variations in tax laws, State and city taxes
and employee contributions for other State and local programs cannot be deducted on a national basis. Group
insurance premiums, and other pay deductions for welfare
programs are generally classified as consumption expenditures or personal savings and would not be deducted even
if the necessary data were available. The cost of these
items is included in the Consumer Price Index used to
deflate the spendable earnings series to obtain real spendable earnings. The real spendable earnings series is
computed by dividing spendable earnings by the Consumer
Price Index for the month. Spendable earnings are calculated by direct application to gross weekly earnings on
an annualized basis of the appropriate deductions, exemptions, and rates shown on the instructions accompanying
Federal income tax and social security tax forms.
Sample data for the series are primarily collected by
cooperating State agencies, most often through their Employment Security Agencies, for the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The State agencies gather statistics from a
sample of over 165,000 establishments who extract the
needed information from their payroll records. These data
are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics by
use of average hourly earnings, average weekly hours, and
consumer price index, each of which is individually seasonally adjusted using the ratio-to-moving average method.
The real spendable earnings series is published monthly
in the Department of Labor's Employment and Earnings.
Additional information can be obtained from the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.
Housing

857. Vacancy Rate in Rental Housing
This series measures the percentage relationship of
vacant housing units for rent to the total rental inventory.
The vacancy rate is computed by dividing the number of
vacant units for rent by the total number of rental units,
which consists of renter-occupied units, vacant units rented
but not occupied at the time of enumeration, and vacant units
for rent. Vacant units that are seasonal (housing units
intended for occupancy only during a season of the year
and found primarily in resort areas) or held off the market
are excluded.
A housing unit is a house, an apartment, a group of rooms,
or a single room occupied or intended for occupancy as
separate living quarters. Separate living quarters are those
in which the occupants do not live and eat with any other
persons in the structure and which have either (1) direct
access from the outside of the building or through a common
hall or (2) complete kitchen facilities for the exclusive use
of the occupants. A housing unit is considered vacant if no
one is living in it at the time of enumeration.
The housing inventory excludes group quarters such as
institutions, dormitories and rooming houses, and transient

D. Descriptions and Sources of Series—Continued
accomodations such as transient hotels, motels and tourist
courts.
Vacant mobile homes and trailers are also
excluded.
Current statistics for this series are obtained in the
quarterly Housing Vacancy Survey. This survey provides
national and regional estimates on the vacancy rate in the
rental and homeowner inventories as well as in the total
housing inventory. Thus, the 1972 vacancy rates reflect the
inclusion of units rated "dilapidated" and previously excluded
from the data.
The sample design and survey techniques for the Housing
Vacancy Survey are the same as those used for the Current




Population Survey conducted by the Bureau of the Census,
Social and Economic Statistics Administration, Department
of Commerce. The sample is spread over 449 areas comprising 863 counties and independent cities with coverage in
each of the 50 States and the District of Columbia. Approximately 47,000 occupied households are designated for interviews each month. The statistics presented for the quarter
are averages for the 3 months comprising the quarter. The
statistics presented for the year are averages for the 4
quarters of the year.
Additional information can be obtained from the Housing
Division, Bureau of the Census, Social and Economic
Statistics Administration, Department of Commerce.

115

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Arabic number indicates latest
calendar month of
data plotted ("7"=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
nlotted ("ill" =
third quarter).

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this char
design.
—

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.

2. The vertical line represents reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase,
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970, and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April
1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.

Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.

8 months after
ref. trough

122.2
122.7
123.4
124.2
126.1
124.

11/69

I 5/70

11/70

+6

+ 12

5/71

11/71

^+18

+24

Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70

This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols it and O mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)

5. The influence of excessive irregular
fluctuations in series with MCD of 3 or more
is modified by using the average for the 3
months centered on the peak as the reference
peak level.

6 0 For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.

7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid line:«•») .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954,
1958, and

116




This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
*^of measure see
comparison table
on the chart.

,'This scale shows
actual series
units (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).

3. The horizontal line represents the leve
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November
1969,
the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
(November 1948,
July 1953, July 1957, and
May I960) that precede the troughs used for
this analysis.
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.

4. To facilitate comparison, deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction-and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may be either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.

Designations:
I'Coincident,"
^'Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.

This scale measures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.

This time scale
shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction, recovery,
and expansion.

(p)= Current business cycle (reference) peak
© = Current business cycle (reference) trough

1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:———) . The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries (those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:
, and knotted line:
» > • •», respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (if] and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).

8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used
throughout the recovery comparison charts
are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research and are shown below.
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicate
the peak and trough quarters used for timing
quarterly data:
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIQ '53)
July '57 (IIIQ'57)
May '60 (IIQ'60)
NOV. '69 (IVQ'69)

Trough
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.

'49
'54
'58
'61
'70

(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54)
(IIQ '58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued

I IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIM IIIIIIIII
825.

5 coincident indicators, deflated
I Coincident

200. GNP in current dollars
Percent

|

• 1,150

*'49

+20

-1+12

+8
+4

+16

• 126
• 124
• 122

+12
H,050

• 120
• 118

+8

• 116

• 1,000

• 114

-4

• 1,100

+4

• 112
• 110

• 950

-8

Current data
(Index: 1967=100)

Current data
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)

-12

7 quarters after
ref. trough

900

I Q'71
II Q'71
IIIQ'71
IV Q'71
I Q'72
II Q'72
IIIQ'72

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median

1,023.4
1,043.0
1,056.9
1,078.1
1,109.1
1,139.4
1,162.2
Percent

-1+16
Percent

2050 GNP in 1958 dollars
[ Coincident

*'49

|

210.

• 150

Implicit price deflator

+12

-1+12
• 800

>145

• 775

> 140

• 750

• 135

+8

+4

> 130
*'49

Current data
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)

_4

Current data
(Index: 195&=100)

•700

7 quarters after
ref. trough

7 quarters after
ref. trough

Ref.
trough
year

731.9
737.
742.5
754.5
766.5
783.9
795.3

11/69

5/70

11/70




5/71

11/71

5/72

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median

+24

Months from ref.
-*
• troughs

11/72-

Dates relative
• to current
•
trough Nov. '70

I II

11/70

IIIQ'71

IV Q'71
I Q'72
II Q'72

6.6
5-8
4.7
3.1
11.6
5.2

IIIQ'72

1i

IV/70

I1

139.8
141.3
142.4
142.9
144.7
145.3
146.1

+6

+12

I
+18

I
+24

11/71

IV/71

11/72

IV/72

_L_L

-12

>IV/69

I Q'71
II Q'71

Percent
deviations

117

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

O O

+16

I I I I I I I I I I I | I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I II

M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I

• 31,500

+14

59. Sales of retail stores, deflated

+4

• 31,000

Coincident

+12

73, 000

• 30,500

+10

•30,000

+8

• 29,500

+6

• 29,000

+4

• 28,500

+2

• 28,000

+2

• 72,000

• 71,000

-1

• 70,000

-2
O1

• 69,000

• 27,500
• 27,000

-2
• 68,000
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May.'72
Jun.'72
Jul.'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72

22 months after
ref. trough
Ref.
trough
year

Percent
deviations

6.0
4.1
2.7
2.9
3.4
3.5

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
42.

71,552
71,744
72,011
72,246
72,592
72,699
72,661
72,980
73,221

_A
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May '72
Jun.'72
Jul.'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72

22 months after
ref. trough

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median

Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities |
1970-72,

29,341
29,503
30,400
30,264
30,856
30,541
30,861
31,198
30,546

+12
+10
+8

total private economy

• 124

+3

+6

• 77,000

+2
+j

076,000

0

075,000
1961-63
• 74,000

'49
^Current data
(Index: 1967=100)

-2
[Nov.'70©75,162

O'54

Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May '72
Jun. •72
Jul. •72
Aug. •72
Sep. •72

22 months after
ref. trough
Ref.
trough
year

Percent
deviations

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median

4-7
4.3
3.5
2.6
4.7
3.9

I I I I I MI I II

I I I II

+6

-12

11/69

1

5/70

11/70

5/71

7 quarters after
ref. trough

77,243
77,266
77,759
77,881
78,041
78,330
78,237
78,348
78,647

II Q'71
IIIQ'71
IV Q'71
I Q'72
II Q'72
IIIQ'72

I I I I I I I I I MI M

+12

11/71

+18

5/72

+24

Months from ref.
• troughs
•

Dates relative
to current
B
11/72-4— *
:rough Nov. '70

I1

II

-12

HI/69

5/70

125.5
125.6

11/70

5/71

11/71

+18

+24

5/72

11/72

Reference peak levels are averages of the three months centered on reference peak dates for series with MOD of 3 or more.

118




• 128
• 126

63. Unit labor cost,

078,000

• 130

• 122

+4

• 120

+2

• 118

0

• 116

-2

• 114

ALPHABETICAL INDEX
Series Finding Guide
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Tables

Charts

Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)

A
Accession rate manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, selling manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices selling retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Automobiles
Cars, new, purchased by households
Expenditures, personal consumption
Product gross constant dollars

2

See Employrnent and unem Dloyment.

D61
D446
D450
D440
D462
0460
D466
D464
D442
D444

46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46

430
234
249

11/68
7/71
45
84
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consumfDtion expenc itures.
See NIA - Gr oss national pr oduct.

85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85

7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators, five
Coincident indicators, five, deflated
Coincident indicators, five, rate of change
Employment, marginal adjustments
Financial flows, sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) issue date)

740

58,59

92

2/72

6/72

741
859
748
749
53

58,59
58
59
59
23

92
92
93
93
76

2/72
2/72
2/72
2/72
8/72

6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68

814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816

38
37
37
65
3B
38
38
37
38
37
38

83
83
83

5/72
1/72
1/72
12/71
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72

83
83
83
83
83
83
83

11/68
11/68

11/68
5/72
5/72

B
alance of payments - See also NIA - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S., official
Reserve transactions, official
Special drawing rights, allocated to U.S

575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535

53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49

Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment foreign direct in the U S
Investment income, military sales and service
Merchandise adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Net, goods and services
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from

252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544

51
52
53
51
51
52
See Balance
48
48
53
48
52
52

Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad U S direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad U S payments by
ionds-See Interest rates,
•uilding - See Investment, fixed,
iusiness failures, current liabilities
iusiness starts
Formation business net
Incorporations, new
luying policy, production materials

88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
87
87
88
88
87
87
88
of payments 86
86
88
86
88
88

10/70

5/69

10/70
8/70
8/70

5/69*
5/69
5/69

10/71
8/70

5/69*
5/69

8/70
9/70
9/70
8/70
8/70
9/70
alances.
7/71
7/71
9/70
10/71
9/70
9/70

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69

253
543

51
52

87
88

8/70
9/70

5/69
5/69

541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545

51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52

87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88

8/70
9/70
8/70
9/70
9/70
10/71
9/70
9/70

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

14

34

81

7/72

77
25,39
77
25
See Inventor ies.

6/71
7/72

*12
13
26

c
lanada - See International comparisons.
Opacity adequacy, manufacturers'
Opacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Potential GNP, constant dollars
apital consumption allowances
apital investment - See Investment, fixed,
ars- See Automobiles,
ash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
ash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
ompensation of employees - See also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm

44

207
850
206
296

See NIA - G oss national pr oduct.
9/72
96
62
See NIA - G oss national pr oduct.
See NIA -Sa ving.

84

11/68

31
31

80
80

8/72
8/72

1/72
1/72

745

58,59

92

9/72

10/72

93
93

9/72

10/72

746
746

58,59

853

See Investme nt, fixed.

435

45

84

1/71

11/68

33
34
36,42
36
33,40
34
33

81
81
82
82
81
81
81

6/71
7/72
6/71
7/72
7/72
7/72
7/72

7/64
7/64

112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33

10/72
10/72

D
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Expenditures abroad, U.S. military
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services
Sales, military to foreigners
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Depreciation
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders new durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Profits, manufacturing
Sales, retail stores
Workweek, avg., production workers, mfg
Discount rate
Disposable personal income - See NIA - National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption - See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories, business, change in
Orders, export, excluding motor vehicles
Orders new
Orders, new, components
Orders, unfilled
Orders, unfilled, change in
Orders, unfilled, to shipments
Sales, final

625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546

7/72
89
55
See Balance cf payments - Ir iports.
11/71
89
55
11/71
55
89
8/72
89
55
8/72
89
55
See NIA - G o vernment pure lases.
See Balance }f payments - E xports.

296

SeeNIA-Sa /ing.

D11
D5
041
D23
D47
06
D19
058
034
D54
D1

63
63
64
63
64
63
63
64
63
64
63

114

See Interest ates.

535

See Balance Df payments - B alances.

97
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
97
98,102
97
98,102
97,99

9/71
11/71
10/71
6/72
11/71
11/71
11/71
1/71
7/72
1/71
10/71

9/68#

6/69*
4/69*

5/69*
6/69
6/72*

271
506
*6
D6
96
25
852
270

See NIA - Gr oss private domestic investnlent.
See Balance jf payments - E xports.
9/68
[7/72
77
25,39
See Diffusio i indexes.
9/68
78
9/72
27
9/68
9/72
79
29
9/68
96
9/72
62
See NIA - Fi lal sales.

2
841
*5

20
60
20,39

E

35
34

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




1/71

416

Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
Costs - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in

Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion index
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, mfg. and
and trade, diffusion index

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

D5
842
D446

74
94
74

10/71
4/72
10/71

See Diffusio i indexes.
60
1 4/72
94
See
SeeAnticipa
Antic tions and intent ions.

8/68
4/72
6/69

4/72

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.

119

Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Charts

Employment and unemployment-Continued
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed . . . .
Job vacancies in manufacturing
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural estab., rate of change . .
Marginal employment adjustments
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Equipment, business - See Investment, fixed.
Exports - See Balance of pmts. and NIA - Foreign trade.

Tables

*41
D41
46
860
50
3
48
48
813
21
42

21,4-1
See Diffusioi
21
62
21
2O
21
65
See Composi
20
21

e indexes.
74
75

843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
D1
*1

60
60
60
22,42
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
See Diffusior
20,39

94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
indexes.
74

75
ndexes.
74
96
74
74
75

Series
Historica
data
lescriptions
issue date) issue date)

10/71

8/68

12/70
12/71
10/71
11/71
11/71

10/72
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#

12/71
6/72

4/72*

4/72
4/72
4/72
6/72
10/71
4/72
6/72
4/72
6/72
4/72

4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72

10/71

8/68

F

Financial flows, sensitive
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See Balance of payments and NIA.
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves

817

93

See Composi e indexes.

35

82

6/71

G

Government - See Balance of payments, Defense,
and NIA.
Gross national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.

H

Hours - See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - See NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
Units authorized by local building permits
Units started, private, total
Vacancy rate, rental housing

*29
28
857

26,39
26
62

78
78
96

4/71
6/71
11/71

4/69
6/72
10/72

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

International comparisons-Continued
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD European countries
United Kingdom
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany

Current ssue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historica
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

123
126
127
128
121
122
125

67
67
67
67
67
67
67

103
103
104
104
104
103
104

9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71

143
146
147
148
142
19
145

68
68
68
68
68
68
68

104
104
104
104
104
104
104

6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
4/71
6/72

Inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA - Gross
private domestic investment.
65
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
851
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
815
Investment and purchasing
412
Manufacturers', book value
414
Manufacturers', condition of
*71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
*31
Manufacturing and trade, change in
D450
Manufacturing and trade, diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . . 20
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
286
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits

29
79
8/72
96
62
8/72
See Composi e indexes.
44
84
7/72
44
84
1/71
79
29,42
8/72
28,40
78
8/72
See Anticipa ions and inten ions.
28
79
7/72
78
28
6/71
28
79
6/71
See NIA -Na :ional and pers )nal income

Investment, fixed - See also NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
97
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
11
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . . D11
814
Capital investment commitments
9
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
8
Construction contracts total value
Construction expend., bus., mach. and equip, sales . . 69
853
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
560
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
24
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
*10
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . . *61
D61
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
561
U.S. direct investments abroad

78
27
9/71
26
77
9/71
See Diffusion indexes,
See Composi e indexes.
26
77
7/71
25
77
78
27
8/72*
62
96
10/71
See Balance cf payments - E xports.
26
77
7/72
25,39
77
7/72
27,42,43 78,84
7/71
See Anticipa ions and inten :ions.
See Balance c f payments - 1 mports.

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

9/68
2/69
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
9/68

9/68#
11/68
9/68
9/68
11/68

Investments, financial - See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates, International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes - Stock.
Italy - See International comparisons.
J

1

Japan - See International comparisons.

Imports - See Balance of payments and NIA Foreign trade.
Income - See also Compensation of employees
and NIA - National and personal income.
Households, compared to year ago
Households, mean probability of change
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Personal
Receipts for transportation and other
services, U.S. balance of payments
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Industrial materials prices - See Price indexes - Materials.
Industrial production - See also International
comparisons.
U S components
U.S., index
U.S., rate of change
Interest net
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term bank rate
Corporate bond yield
Mortgage yield, residential
Municipal bond yield
Treasury bill discount rate
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
West Germany

L

420
425
543
542
*52

1/71
45
84
1/71
84
45
See Balance Df payments - 1 nports.
See Balance Df payments - E xports.
8/72
76
23,41

548
544

See Balance Df payments - E xports.
See Balance Df payments - E xports.

D47
*47
47
288
*67
116
118
117
114
115

. . .

133
136
137
138
132
135

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




120

See Diffusio indexes.
23,41,67 76,103
65
See NIA - N c

10/71
11/70

11/68
11/68

7/68

68
*62
63
*17

32
80
80
32,42
32
80
See Price Ind jxes.

8/72
5/72
8/72

7/68
11/68
10/72

3

See Employr nent and unem iloyment.

85
102

33
33

81
81

12/71
12/71

10/72
10/72

103

33

81

12/71

10/72

602
601
600
298

54
89
54
89
54
89
SeeNIA-Sa ving.

8/72
8/72
8/72

7/68#
7/68#
7/68#

270
274
273

15
15
18

71
71
72

10/72
10/72
1/72

10/69
10/69

M

11/68
11/68

Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions

ional and pers inal income

35
36
35
35
35

82
82
82
82
82
82

11/71
6/71
7/71
6/71
6/71
6/71

7/64*
7/64
7/64
7/64
7/64

66
66
66
66
66
66

103
103
103
103
103
103

6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72

36,42

Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy . . . .
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans - See Credit.

N

National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures Federal
Receipts, Federal
Surplus or deficit Federal
Surplus or deficit, government
Final sales -See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.

Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

National income and product accounts— Continued
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments
Exports, goods and services
Exports, goods and services, net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP ...
Imports, goods and services
Government purchases (goods and services)
Federal Government
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
Federal, State and local govts., constant dollars
National defense
State and local governments
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product gross constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars
GNP constant dollars rate of change
GNP, current dollars
GNP current dollars rate of change
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, current dollars
Price deflator, implicit
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . .
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in, constant dollars . . .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP . .
Investment, gross private domestic, total
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential percent of GNP
National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income . . . .
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet. of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol . . .
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services

Current issue
(oage numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date (issue date)

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)

0
252
250
250A
253

13
13
19
13

71
71
73
71

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

5/69
5/69
10/69
5/69

262
262A
260
261
264
266
266A

14
19
14
18
14,55
14
19

71
73
71
72
71,89
71
73

10/72
10/72
10/72
1/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69

18
9,18,23,
41,61,
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56

72
69,76
95
69
69,76
69
95
95
69
69
69
90

1/72
8/72
8/7£
8/72
8/72

10/67
10/69
10/69
10/69

8/71°
8/71
8/72
8/72

10/69
10/69
10/69

243
246
245
245A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A

12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19

70
72
70,78
73
71
71
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73

9/72
1/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/72
9/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
1/72
9/72
10/72

280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286

16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16

71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72

10/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
8/71
9/72
10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

286A
282
282A
284
284A

19
16
19
16
19

73
71
73
71
73

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
237

11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
11

70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
9/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

296
290
292
854

17
17
17
62

72
72
72
96

8/71
10/72
10/72
8/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68

294
298

17
17

72
72

8/71
8/71

10/69
10/69

249
*205
205
*200
200
207
206
217
215
210
211

10/69
10/69
19/69

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions, Balance of payments, Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA - Gross national
product, and Productivity.

121

See Internatic nal comparso ns.

P
Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons..
All items
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators - See NIA - Gross national product.
Labor cost, price per unit of
Materials, industrial
Materials, industrial, components
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities

781
783
782
784

56,66
56
56
56

90,103
90
90
90

3/72
6/71
6/71
6/71

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

*17
*23
D23

30,40
80
30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.

4/72
7/71

11/68
4/69

*19
D19

30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.

11/71

5/69

5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

9/72
9/72

10/72
6/68

750
752
Foods and feeds, processed
751
Industrial commodities
55
58
Manufactured goods
D58
Manufactured goods components
Production - See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and NIA - Gross national product.
Productivity
770
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . . 858
Profits - See also NIA - National and personal income.
*16
Corporate after taxes
18
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
22
Income originating, ratio of profits to
D34
Manufacturing
D442
Manufacturing and trade, net
Per dollar of sales manufacturing
15
816
Prcfitability

57
57
57
31,57
31,57
See Diffusion

58,59
58

91
91
91
80,91
80,91
indexes.

93
93

30,40
79
8/72
30
79
8/72
30
80
8/72
See Diffusion indexes,
See Anticipat onsand inten tions.
30
80
n/7i
See Compos! e indexes.

7/68
1/72
7/68

3/69

R
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserves, free . . .

. . .

534
93

See Balance o f payments - E alances.
See Free rese rves.

57
851
69
410
*56
0444
*54
D54
59

24
76
8/72
See Inventori es.
See Investme it, fixed.
44
84
7/72
24,41
76
8/72
See Anticipat onsand inten :ions.
24,41
12/71
See Diffusior indexes.
^
24
76
8/72

*19

See Price ind xes - Stock.

S
Salaries- See Compensation of employees.
Sales -See also NIA- Final sales.
Final sales
. .
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
. ...
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, net, diffusion index
Retail stores
Retail stores, components
Retail stores, constant dollars
Saving -See NIA- Saving.
Securities- See Balance of payments, Interest
rates, International comparisons -Stock prices,
and Price indexes -Stock.
Stock prices
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.

7/68

11/68
2/69
6/72

U
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit govt

Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.

V
32

Vendor performance

29

79

6/71

W
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories, business, change in
Sales, final

236
275
274

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




SeeNIA-Pe rsonal consumi tion expem itures.
S e e N I A - G r oss private donlestic invest ment.
S e e N I A - F nal sales.

Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Whnlpsalfi nrinfis - SPR Prirp inripxps - Whnlpsalp

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.

121

Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect series relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."
The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same number) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index.

253.

Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

261.

Government purchases of goods and services total,
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)

234.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)
State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

A National Income and Product

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)

241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

266.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E1, E5)

242.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

243.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

270.

Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)

244.

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 1958
dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)

210.

215.

217.

220.

222.

224.

Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)

274.

Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

245.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

246.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, ail industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AID)

225.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

226.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

227.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

250.

231.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

232.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of gross
national product (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
282.

122




Com(A8)

Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

286.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

of

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
284.

Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Titles and Sources of Series

15.

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)

*16.

Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)

40.

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)

*41.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B8)

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B8)

(Continued)
288.

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

288A. Net interest as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

296.

298.

Commerce,
(A9)

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

2.

Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

3.

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

*5.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, E3)

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)

20.

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

45.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating,
corporate, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)

Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

50.

Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)

*52.

Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, B8)

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)

*54.

Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)

22.

*23.

24.

25.

*6.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)

8.

Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)

9.

*10.

Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)

11.

Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)

*12.

Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)

13.

Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)

14.

Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)




Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (CDDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

*19.

Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

*1.

18.

26.

Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)

28.

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

*29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)

55.
*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)

*56.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)

57.

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

32.

33.

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government
National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

34.

Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)

(B2)
58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1, C2)

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

123

Titles and Sources of Series

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M). -Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

(Continued)
63.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)

*205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (0). See in
section A.

245.

Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.

810.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

813.

Marginal employment adjustments— leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)

68.

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

69.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

*71.

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)

815.

Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

*72.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (EOM).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)

81 6.

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

817.

Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D and 56D)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

(B7)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations,
(EOQ).-The Conference Board

manufacturing
(B3)
830.

102.

103.

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

112.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

*113.

Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)

114.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

61.

412.

414.

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)

117.

124

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)




Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions

410.
110.

Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD

430.

Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

435.

Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD

D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)

(B7)

85.

96.

425.

416.

420.

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

250.

Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
See in section A.

253.

Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

Manufacturers'
inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

Titles and Sources of Series

546.

Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statist ics(D5)

547.

749.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

548.

Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

750.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).—McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D1)

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

549.

Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

512.

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)

560.

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (D4)

515.

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

561.

U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

770.

Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

564.

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

781.

Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

783.
570.

Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(04)

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

575.

Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (ED Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

841.

Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

601.

Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

842.

Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

843.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

844.

Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

(Continued)

506.

508.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

535.

536.

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

616.

Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

621.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)

625.

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

845.

Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

647.

New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)

846.

648.

New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)

847.

740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

848.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

858.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

859.

Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

540.

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

542.

Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

543.

Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

544.

545.

Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)

U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

537.

541.

602.

741.

Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

746.




Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
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Titles and Sources of Series

47.

Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.

52.

Personal income (M). See in section B.

54.

Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.

200.

GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

206.

Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(E1 )

207.

Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205)
(Q).-Counci! of Economic
Advisers
(ED

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.

850.

Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)

852.

853.

854.

Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)

Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)




Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)

128.

Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)

132.

United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
Ministry of Labour (London)

133.

Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)

135.

West Germany, index of consumer prices
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

136.

France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(Fl)

137.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)

138.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)

United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.

142.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)

United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.

143.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)

145.

West Germany, index of stock
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

146.

France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)

147.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)

148.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange(Tokyo)
(F3)

781.

United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.

Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)

F International Comparisons

47.

121.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)

122.

United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)

123.

Canada, index of industrial production
Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)

Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).— Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)

127.
860.

19.

851.

France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)

Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)

(Continued)
E Analytical Measures

126.

857.

125.

(M).(F2)

West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)

prices

(M).(F1)

(M).(Fl)

(M).(F3)