Full text of Business Conditions Digest : July 1965
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
lift
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
Thh rtpott MI prepamdlii the'
nomi-c Rttttardh and Analysis Division under the dir®€tion of JQ&M
Shiskln, Chfaf. T^chnkal sta/l and
ttair mfpoasffeJlitfes to the
taioa
Feliks Tarawa — Oomput»tio« of
budam cycte measyfes,
Altta H, Young—^kction o.i seasonal Mljuitattat methods,
Earry A, Btcknuut
for computer
Bstty F, Tunstali— Coilection @@d
compilation of fetsk data,
Editoriii niptrvhioa m provided by
Gcraldtae Cenafcy of the S(»tM«il
Rep-om Division, Sfciuut I
is respoMibte for publication
Hie coop©f®|kffl of various*
ment and private affuskt which pro*
vide data is gratefully teknowledged*
Tlie agendas furnishiat data am indiett&d m the Lst of serte and
sources on the back cover of tte
Subscription
additional for
$6 a yeai ($L50
maHing) ,
Airmail dettwy is awetttble it «n
additional charge , For Moima^oa
abo-ut domestic or fom-pi air mail
dsllvtry* write to" the ViqperiDlMwlttt
of Documents (addre^ below), enclosing a copy of i'om
ItbeL
peyabie to the S*n*®r*
of .Dac-uments. S^d to
U.S. Gov-einment PTinting Offi^?
WsAwitoia, D£. '2W02, or to «ay
US, Deputmeat of ^raa^res
\
.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Acting Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach, The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle, In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
July 1965
DATA THROUGH JUNE
Series ESI No. 65-7
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers
,
[D)©©©u 3 D[o)
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
.
Analytical Measures of Current Change _ _ .
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns _„.
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
;
iii
iv
iv
.
_
'.
1
_____
1
2
2
2
3
_ ~_
4
5
_____ 6
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
M}0 W\\mmm^mm>
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONT/NUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
________________________
CHART 4. Comparisons of Specific Cycles
_________________________
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates
____________________________
_ _____ j. ______ , _ _ _
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates ___________________________________ . ___
TABLE 8. Comparisons From Specific Peak and Trough Levels and Specific
Trough Dates __________________________________ „ ___
58
61
64
65
66
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961_____________________„ 67
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators _______ . _____________________ _ ___ 68
Appendix C, Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series_______________________________- ______ 69
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series ___________________________________________ 72
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961_____________.______________-_______73
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series _____________________ 74
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes __ _____ . _____ _ _ _ .
--------
75
a A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 7 on private nonfarm housing starts has
been revised for the period January 1959 through March
1960.
For a full explanation of this revision of the
seasonally adjusted data, see Census Bureau report
C20-65-6, "Housing Starts in June- 1965." In addition,
corrections have been made for the following months:
September and October, I960, September 1963, and
January 1964.
2. Series 89 on surplus or deficit in U.S. balance
of payments has been revised by the source agency for
the period beginning with the first quarter 1960.
3. Appendix F includes historical data for series 7
and 89.
The August issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release August 24.
111
^?%t-%*$
^•'*';.,*v$
A punch card file containing data for the business cycle series included in table
2, the diffusion indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5)
used to compute 14 of the diffusion indexes in table 4, is maintained at the
Bureau of the Census. Duplicate cards for 85 of the 87 series, the 30 diffusion
indexes, and 145 of the component series are available at cost. (The other series
can be obtained only from the sponsoring agencies.) The cost for these cards
ranges from $58 for 500 cards to $137 for 5,000 cards. One card is required
per series year. Thus, for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to date, the cost
would be about $70. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes
and 145 component series, the cost would be about $135 for the same period.
At present, the Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current,
However, the figures for the principal series and diffusion indexes required for
this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
To aid users of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS, technical papers dealing
with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this
report from time to time. A limited number of copies of these articles are available,
free of charge. The following papers have been included as part of this program:
No, 1, —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-JO Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in
the September 1963 issue). A new version of this program is scheduled
to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time.
No. 2. —Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius
Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue).
No. 3. — Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H, Young (published
in May 1964 issue).
No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and
Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964
issue),
No. 5.—^Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max
Shor and Allan Young (published in September 1964 issue).
No. 6. — The Current Expansion in Historical Perspective by Julius Shiskin
(published in January 1965 issue).
Please send requests for the material described above to Julius Shiskin, Chief Economic
Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Reports in the BUREAU OF THE CENSUS TECHNICAL PAPER SERIES are also
useful to BCD readers. Two reports of particular interest are—
Tests and Revisions of Bureau of the Census Methods of Seasonal Adjustments,
Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 5, by Julius Shiskin (1961), available
from the Bureau of the Census at $1 per copy;
Estimating Trading-Day Variation in Monthly Economic Time Series, Bureau of
the Census Technical Paper No. 12, by Allan Young (1965), available from
Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington D.C.,
20402, at 30 cents per copy.
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
[>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
D>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
O
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
[>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
[>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
O
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 to 8).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
appendix D, except for those series which are the sums
of seasonally adjusted components, and those series
which are based on unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will
be substituted whenever they are published.
Adjustments for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year are
made by Census Method II. In addition, series such
as new building permits are adjusted for variations in
the number of trading or working days and series such
as retail sales of apparel are adjusted for variable
holidays (for example, Easter).
Studies of the effect of unusual weather upon some
series have also been started. It is important to note,
however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this
average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal weather at any time
of the year. For this reason, many seasonally adjusted
series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in
months when the weather is unusually bad and high
in months when the weather is unusually good. While
it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at
present make any adjustments for such variations.
QfCILi TOMB
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report,
if they are available. However, for the special purposes
of business cycle studies, a number of series that are
not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are
shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report.
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed
by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using
Census Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
AtMMYTTBCM
iW
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread in increases are often associated
with rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp
reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Direction-of-Chcmge Table
The direction-of-change table (table 5) shows directions of change (" + " for rising, "o"- for unchanged,
and "—" for falling) in the components used for the
diffusion indexes. This table provides a convenient
view of changing business conditions and is helpful
in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it shows which economic activities went
up, which went down, and how long such movements
have persisted. The table also helps to show how
a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the
economy to another.
Directions of change for most diffusion index components are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either
6- or 9-month spans.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the indicator series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference trough
dates. This type of comparison shows whether, and
by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or
falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 7). For the current expansion, this type of comparison measures the extent of
the rise from the trough level (February 1961) to the
level at the current month. For each earlier expan-
sion, data for a like period (same number of months
from the trough of the expansion) are compared with
the level at the trough. The same situation exists here
as for the comparisons shown in table 6; For earlier
expansions that were shorter than the current one,
the comparisons show the status at a point after a new
contraction had set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
from reference peak dates. These comparisons will
be made during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same for
all series), comparisons are made on the basis of
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
For example, the specific peak for the index of industrial production is January 1960 (corresponding
to the May 1960 reference peak); the specific peak
for stock prices is July 1959. (See appendix B.)
Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 8. For
earlier expansions, these comparisons differ from those
shown for reference cycles in that they show only the
period up to the next specific peak date and do not
include any part of the contraction that followed. In
many cases, therefore, the earlier comparisons cover
fewer months than those for the current expansion.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related
series for cycles prior to the period covered by the
series used currently. The principal substitutions of
this type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical
time series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(charts 3 and 4)
These charts compare the performance of selected indicators during the current expansion with their performance during the expansion phase of previous business
cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is
disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the
strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions,
the reference trough (see chart 3) and specific trough
(see chart 4). Thus, these comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the current expansion relative to
cyclical movements during the expansions of previous
cycles.
Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart
3 compares the pattern of the current reference cycle
(the cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phases of previous reference cycles. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle (the cycle for a particular series)
with the movements over the corresponding phases of
previous specific cycles in that series. In both1 charts, the
trough dates are alined. In chart 3, the levels of the
preceding peaks are also alined while in chart 4, the
levels of the troughs are alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" ^December)
Solid line indicates monthly data. >.
c
(Data may be actual monthly fig- x^
ures or MCD moving averages,*)
Broken Mne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
II" = second quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc,)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 — Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising,
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVa, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
*
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and bus/ness failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policyf and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
P^
BAS|C DATA
bed
JULY 1965
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Percent change2
Basic data 1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Mar.
1965
May
1965
Apr.
1965
Average
change,
195319633
June
1965
Mar.
to
Apr,
1965
Apr.
to
May
1965
May
to
June
1965
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1.
2.
30.
3.
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Accession rate, manufacturing
Nonagricufturat placements, all industries
Layoff rate, manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
Hours
Per 100 employ. .
Thous
Per 100 employ .
Thous
do
6. New orders, durable goods industries
Bil.dol
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
do
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .Mil. sq. ft.
floor space....
Bil.dol
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
do
11. New capital appropriations manufacturing 4
7.
29.
38.
13.
14.
Private nonfarm housing starts
New building permits, private housing
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16. Corporate profits after taxes^
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing4
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries*
Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100....
do
Number
Mil.dol
No. per week . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100....
Cents
41.4
4.3
527
1.3
110
40.9
r3.9
531
41.1
P3.9
rl.5
pl.4
(NA)
549
(NA)
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
-1.2
-9.3
+0.8
-15.4
-6.4
-0.4
+6.7
-0.2
(NA)
+3.B
(NA)
+12.8
-37.3
+0,5
0.0
117
102
140
237
237
224
224
5.3
21.71
r22.04
r4.08
21.01
r4.08
P20.50
P3.94
3.8
4.5
+1.5
+1.5
-4.7
64.26
r4.98
56.13
P5.03
(NA)
(NA)
9.7
4.9
+18.9
-12.7
4.02
54.04
4.84
(NA)
rl,532
104.7
103.6
16,504
79.51
rl,501
r!09.4
104.3
16,043
139.09
pi, 504
P109.5
42
33
47
105.3
r!05!4
87.97
0.0
+2.9
+5.5
0.0
+1.0
(NA)
+4.6
-2.0
-6.5
-1.3
-3.6
+4.5
+0.7
-2.8
16.9
+45.6
-74.9
47
13.1
+21.4
-42.4
p!06.1
+o!l
(NA)
6.3
0.7
6.8
(NA)
5.1
(NA)
(NA)
135.66
(NA)
86.83
17.8
11.4
1,465
112.0
105.0
17,112
146.29
Percent . ,
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
1941-43=10 ....
21. Change in business inventories, all industries4. 5 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
31. Change in book
value, manufacturing and trade
5
inventories
do
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories
5
of materials and supplies
.. .do... .
529
P41.0
r!05.2 .
89.28
85.04
7.3
3.8
1.0
2.7
2.6
-2.4
-3.4
(NA)
(NA)
+0.2
+0.1
(NA)
(NA)
+2.5
0.0
+0.9
(NA)
+1.3
1,8
P+-5.7
(NA)
-0.2
(NA)
0.0
+1.5
-4.7
-1.1
+11.8
r+10.2
p+4.8
(NA)
3.5
-1.6
-5.4
(NA)
+2.5
r+5.3
1*0.9
(NA)
1.5
+2.8
-4.4
(NA)
57
61
60
58
6.8
+7.0
-1.6
-3.3
do
68
67
65
62
5.8
-1.5
-3.0
-4.6
do
66
72
70
66
7.7
+9.1
-2.8
-5.7
Bil dol
1957-59=100....
+0.44
113.2
r+0.84
116.7
iM-0.46
rll6.9
p-0.28
115.3
-0.74
Employees in nonagricultural establishments
Thous
do.......
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Percent
Unemployment rate, married males
.. ..do...
do
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State . . .
59,992
66,890
4.7
2.5
3.1
r 59, 913
66,874
4.9
2.5
3.1
r60,098
66,979
4.6
2.5
2.9
p60,306
67,459
4.7
2.4
2.9
1957-59=100....
tfo
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do..
148
140.5
143
140.8
145
r!41.4
P141.9
Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
.. ..do
Personal income
do
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, constr......
do
Sales of retail stores
Mil.dol
Wholesale prices except farm products and foods... 1957-59=100....
2,923.8
513.8
135.3
22,805
102.1
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries5
23. Industrial materials prices* . . . . .
Percent
+0.40
-0.38
1.3
+3.1
+0.2
-1.4
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
4.8
-0.1
-4.3
+0.3
+0.2
+6.1
+0.3
+0.7
-2.2
+4.0
3.1
1.1
-3.4
+0.2
0.49
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 4
50. GNPin 1954 dollars
49. GNPin current
dollars4
57. Final sales4
51.
52.
53.
54.
55.
p!46
P536.7
p652.3'
2,871.5
r520.0
r!35.5
r 23, 375
102.3
0.0
0.0
p3,027.7
P523.9
P136.3
p23,294
p!02.5
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.0
+6.5
0.0
+1.4
+0.4
+0.7
+0.4
+0.8
+1.4
1.3
1.5
1.3
P 658.0
2,962.0
r515.8
134.6
r 22, 865
102.2
0.0
+1.6
+1.3
+0.4
-0.5'
+0.3
+0.1
-3.1
+0.8
+0.7
+2.2
+0.1
+5.4
+0.8
+0.6
-0.3
+0.2
bed
JULY
TABLE
BASIC DATA
1965
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
Mar.
1965
Ann, rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100....
do
Bil. dol
96.9
Apr.
1965
Percent change2
May
1965
June
1965
Average
change,
195319633
Mar. '
to
Apr.
1965
Apr.
to
May
1965
May
to
June
1965
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment4
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP4
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
,
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business Ioans*6
do
Mil. dol
Percent
63.7
64'. o
a49.60
r97.3
(NA)
P 64.3
22.5
60,240
4.97
22.3
60,984
117.6
123.7
+6.1
125.2
155.0
+29.8
1,735
(NA)
3.2
0.6
0.9
0.5
p22.4
61,654
(NA)
(NA)
4.99
0.8
0.8
2.3
133.1
120.6
-12.5
(NA)
3.7
4.1
4.4
2.1
26.9
+6.5
+25.3
+23.7
1,557
128.9
121.1
-7.8
(NA)
1,567
4,593
2,926
r3.24
-112
4,630
2,025
r2.45
-178
(NA)
(NA)
pi. 94
p-182
+5.28
+6.60
r-9.72
r-1 . 20
PKL3.56
PKL2.24
r97.2
P97.4
+o'.3
+6! 5
+1.2
+0.1
(NA)
+0.5
+0.1
(NA)
+0.4
+1.1
(NA)
(NA)
+0.4
+3.3
-0.4
-4.7
-10.3
+3.0
-21.9
-37.6
(NA)
+0.6
15.1
26.2
23.0
104
-0.7
+56.1
+31.7
-36
+0.8
-30.8
-24.4
-66
(NA)
(NA)
-20.8
-4
2.78
2.52
0.00
-1.68
-15.00
-7.80
+23.28
-0.9
+1.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82. Federal cash payments to public
83
84.
95.
90.
Anrv. rate,
bil. dol.
do
Federal cash receipts from public
do
Federal cash surplus or deficit^
Balance, Federal income and product account*, 5. . . ......do
Mil. dol
Defense Department obligations, procurement
91.
92
99.
93.
85
Defense Department obligations, total
Military contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*5
Change in money supply 5
98 Change in money supply and time deposits^ . .
110. Total private borrowing4
Ill Corporate gross savings4
1 12 Change in business loans &
113
114
115
116
117
Change in consumer installment debt 5
Treasury bill rate*
Treasury bond yields*
Corporate bond yifclds*
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields*
86. Exports, excluding military aid
88 Merchandise trade balance^
89 U S balance of payments4' ^
81.
94
96.
97.
do
do
Bil. do!
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
do
Ann. rate,
mil. dol
do
Ann. rate,
bil. doi
do
Percent ........
do.......
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
do
do.
1957-59=100....
Consumer prices
.do
Construction contracts value
Bil. dol.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
6
do
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing . .
A, 624
1,874
2.46
-76
+5.28
+8.28
.
(NA)
(NA)
+12.46
+7.64
3.94
4.15
4.49
3.18
+6.32
+8.93
3.93
4.15
4.48
3.15
+11.04
+8.04
3.90
4.14
• 4.52
3.17
5.45
2,752.7
1,869.0
+883.7
5.45
2,380.3
1,834.7
+545.6
5.45
2,277.7
1,798.9
+478.8
(NA)
109.1
141
55.53
15.58
109.5
152
r56.37
109.9
145
r56.84
5.44
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P56.56
(NA)
•
+13.44
(NA)
(NA)
11.6
4.3
+11.35
(NA)
3.81
4.14
4.57
3.24
(NA)
1.22
0.85
7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
-6.14
+1.29
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
-0.9
+4.72
-0.89
-0.8
-0.2
+0.9
+0.6
+0.31
(NA)
-2.3
0,0
+1.1
+2.2
0.6
4.6
3.6
59.0
267
0.0
-13.5
-1.8
-338.1
0.0
-4.3
-2.0
-66.8
(NA)
-0.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6
+0.4
+7.8
+1.5
+0.4
-4.6
+0.8
(NA)
(NA)
-0.5
(NA)
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA ^ not available.
.
.
iSeries are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in
2jo facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and risewhen business falls are inverted so that
rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g.,
if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as +0.6. See footnote 5 for other "change"qualifications.
3This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
SSince basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed m the same umi or
measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent.
6
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
30. ^onagri, placements, all jindus. (thous.) j
j
3. Layoff rote, mfgj(per 10p employees-
|
,
irjverted scale)
L ™
•S3
*
L
4, limp, layoff, gj] iijidys, (ihov$.-inyerted
ale. MCD moving avg.-$ term)
75
°?
-j
•^
5. Avg. weekly initial claims] State unempl.
irjsyr. {thous,-inverted scale
. , - . - . _ .,-
-
,-._
. - . c
-=-._
.
-jj
bed
CHART
JULY ?965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
...
6. New orders, dun goods Indus, (bil. do).)
24. NeW orders, mach. ana* equip. indus, "(Bit
„._
_ . ._ _
_._..,, _
9. Consjtr. contracts, coiji. and Ijndus. (mil. sq. ftj of ~j
^ ^flborTarea, MCITmbyihg avgt-6 termj"
[ " ^
. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
11. New! capital appropr|iations7}rifg., Q (biL doll
— —
._-™-- . _--
New bldg. prmits, private housing uiits
illJlllJliULlLhJ I' JllW'J
BA$|C
JULY 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38.
ri
Index of net business [formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
I7-V-.
14. iiiab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-jnyerjed scqle^MiCPjTipyJjig- avg.-dfc term
15. Large bus. failures (no. [?er wk.-
j
(nverted scale. MCD moving avg.^-6 term)
i^
l» ii^i
s^ "to to I^
bed
bed
JULY 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
ces, Q (ann. ratb, bil.do .
17. Ratio, price to unit labor
ost, mtgjindex: 1957-59=100)
)f-salesj-mfg., 0 (cents
I
i
i __
22. Rojio, profits jip^ irjcome originating, corporjate
all' industries, 0 (percent)
Stpck^prices.^SOO
(index: 1941-43=10
CHART
£512;
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
!?
If
I
:
itory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
'.
I
j
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil.
*
I
I
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate, biL dol.
I 20. Change in book vralue, mfrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. do!,
iic i
"\
j\
I t !
rchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
'
If
i
'",
t
r
T
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
i
dol.)
bed
bed
JULY 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees in nonagr
IJoJtgJJrmggri. employineat__(n iilions)
weekly insured bnemployi
nt-inverted scale)
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Industrial production (indj*: 1957-59=100J
50. GiNP in 1954 dollars, Q (ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
! ..
-. i
-.!
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1965
bed
bed
JULY 1965
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
I
'UilJLtull^
' till
55, Wholesale prices) exc^fa^ prod, jand fcjods (imjex: 195J-59=10(|)
B
CHART
BASIC DATA
JULY
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
1965
TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate] bit. dol.)
62-iLabor cM per unit of <Mput, rrHg. (index:495/,59=100)
rnfrs.l_inventoriesj(bil. dol.)
L
L_L_L
tank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent
JUuUuJL',:' . -iJUUduJjudl^
.,
JlllillMjiyjlLl^jJlJlll
iiifo) M sin mill in wm nw sug i
18for FRASER
Digitized
'llal'JlJ.'lJ'Jl'jljl1
!llt]!i!!!filtlLL!!ll!ll.
liiis mt§
n M in pp
bed
bed
CHART
JULY 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
I
'
I
•
.
!
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. idol
CLmoving jvg,-6_l
11-4-
l^MijJjM
BASIC DATA
JULY 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
93, Free reserves (bil. dol.)
XL,
85. Chqnge in money supply .((inn. rate, percent.
MCD miving av^. -6
term)
98. ChaYige jn rnohey supply arjcl time [deposi
(anVi.rate, percent. MCD moving avg. —6 t
I • i'iMM)
[110. Tola) private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
IllL Corporate ^ross savings, Q (ann. j-ate, bil. dol.)
nn. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg,-5 term)
i i i i \ i i ir
consumer installment debt
(ann, rate,
bed
JULY 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENTH-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
. Corporate bond yields (percen
iiU^^
• ' lUju^j^^
CHART
CHART
BAS|C DATA
JULY 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
LlmjuMiuj^
bed
bed
JULY J965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
CHART
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries1
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 2
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
;'d"
June
JU(y .
August
September
October
November
December ........
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August .
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.8
135
301
1.9
4.2
4.0
4 2
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
557
557
569
569
[HJ586
561
557
553
551
557
565
543
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
295
287
283
301
304
303'
305
300
304
299
310
40.5
40.3
40.4
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.5
40.6
40.5
40.7
3 8
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.7
4.0
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
19
40.2
40.7
40 6
40 7
4u.6
40 6
40 6
40 8
40 5
40 5
40 9
41.2
3
4
4
3
3
4
534
532
522
51 Q
526
40.1
4.0. -4
4.0.5
40.6
40 4
40.4
40 5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
41
41
®41
40
L~\
p41
4
3
4
9
~\
0
3
0
0
Q
g
1
/ 0
/ 0
5?o
5p^
cop
1.7
1.8
2,0
2.0
2.1
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
18 47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3 25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
1Q 7/
"IQ 50
T Q P&
? 6?
3 /i
on-vA
"3 AT
"3 Q?
116
125
284
270
Qfi
P77
1 7
17
16
o n
i PP
111
i PI
n ft
pA^
26?
pAn
i y
1.4
1 5
Ql
7-1
1 P"1
*£4D
o/ 1:
i
Q cn
17. 7 J.
O/Q
T Q
oc-i
l?. 4P
Of) 7P
516
/ 0
on
L ~\
5/Q
1 7
i e
4 1
518
16
L 0
/ 1
[H]/ 3
5pn
T y
J. . 4
I Q
C07
310
301
3.15
3.30
2.97
3.31
3.10
3.02
3.07
2.94
2.98
3.05
3.16
3.07
17
18
18
3 8
5/A
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
17.70
17.70
17.15
17.02
17.22
16.65
16.91
16.59
16.55
17 . 29
16.73
17.33
Full
?
[HJ1. ^
QP
y<
AQ
"I OQ
Ful
IK] 7Q
a
-1 O /
a.^4
inn
r3 9
<m
5
117
r>3 Q
con
•n~l .4
}
pj.
-1 fSO
(NA)
5/Q
(NA^
rl
-LU/si
iy n
P^7
o/ /
<44
^4V
P^p
0 / 0
<4ji
oy s
oorf
<£J? /
9017
on /
^4
ITTI ooy
3/6
1Q Q/
on OP
pe
0
a
-|Q
O/
IV. ^4
AQ
3? .07
3 . (7n
/?
3 £>Q
iy .AO
Dtf
1Q y £
o-i
•3
n»7
3 .yo
QA
3i . oU
Ol 1 "5
rtpi
af7-i
r\f\
4.0^
. /I
„, j n^
rsriripp ny
p20 . 50
QO
J. y^
<£±. J,J
on m
21.
ul
QO
f f
3 . 77
/V
3 . T7
rjji
t pirt
LtU r4.
Qo
O Q y
P3.94
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by IE. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico vhich is included in figures published by source agency.
24
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
Year and month
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
^...
1963
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
*.
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December. ........
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
3 71
3 98
3.71
3.96
3.76
3 66
3 72
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
51 07
4 38
51
0*5
/ ~\L
1& L~\
L 11
54.38
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
20
12
04
26
13
(NA)
11. Newlyapproved 7. New private
capita! appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations *
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
3$ 70
42 75
45 90
42.72
44.64
41 16
40 56
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41.89
53
58
54
[El 64.
56
.
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
3.03
2.53
2.81
3.35
2.80
3.30
1
/QA
1
e;Q7
1
/ 75
1 /ao
I A7
/, ft/
•ri Q#
fTTi^c po
|H1P?.UJ?
( MA")
1 495
1 480
1 575
...
rl Z.17
1 /A&
1 /£>*>
(NA^
UMAJ
rl *n?
rl SOI
4 72
/
Q^
(Mil. dol.)
116 8
(wjl24 6
1 'iQ?
1 /??
4-52
(Number)
[Tjl r>1 H ^ "3
icjn, /:>j
I, rjpi/1
fUO
A7A
,571
l ^nA
05.00
(1957-59=100)
1 ^??
1 522
1CT1
4.81
(1957-59=100)
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
1 706
3Q
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
1 285
1,438
1 486
1 652
1 676
T*l
L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
103 8
109 1
104.0
111.9
103.8
106.1
108 7
107.1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112.0
1 * *i7/
4.10
38- Index of net
business formation
1 470
1 296
1 422
1,494
1,515
1,365
1 409
1,531
1 300
1,410
1,634
1,521
i ssn
3.72
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
Til
*JO/
97 2
^QQ
101 S3
97 g
98.1
97.8
97.8
97.6
97 7
98.4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98.3
15 758
15,670
15,372
15,245
14,947
15 171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
86 03
77.40
107.15
89.80
93.15
107 98
121.85
106.02
129.37
96.62
99.61
98.9
101.7
101.4
101.8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
146.46
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
JE52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
103 1
102 8
T A P*50
91 69
16 018
11Q ?Q
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
1 *>
1 ?1 7
•mo Q
1C QQp
iin A7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109,1
110.8
105.4
104.4
104.7
103.2
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
107.10
112 9
T n& n
11 9 n
in/ 7
r>1
HQ .14
riuy
-nl
DO .*i2
piuy
102.5
102.9
105.0
107.0
106.4
106.6
13107 3
i nA A
1 0*5 n
im A
i n/ 3
f T\TA^
1 7 ?7*5
[H!I 7 ?A7
17 11?
i A ^n/
1 ^. f) / q
fWAl
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
d/
c.)
i n7 ^7
i / A ?Q
7Q ^1
1 qo no
135 66
-
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk {*). Current high
values are indicated by tE; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,-4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by[H]. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated;' "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
x
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
25
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
business failures
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
16. Corporate
profits after taxes
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
after valuation adstocks*
justment, all industries
(1941-43-10)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
,' y
June
JU|y .. .,
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
: '*
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
37
[E]32
36
38
38
4.1
38
45
40
46
42
37
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
101.7
101 8
24.9
101.1
100.4
100 7
100 7
101.9
100 7
101.1
100 5
25.0
25.7
25 5
26 6
26 7
28 3
31 2
31.9
32 0
31.9
?6
0336 6
47
100 6
100 7
101 2
101 3
101 7
103 2
102.2
101 5
101 6
102 2
101 9
102 2
103
103
102
103
103
103
103
103
103
102
103
105
2
2
7
7
5
5
4
6
0
6
5
0
-] ("W
Q
104 8
i n*; "3
rios /
33
/7
8.4
9.2
8.1
9.1
8.1
9.1
8.1
9.1
8 1
0 I
8 5
0
8 6
9 3
8 8
Q 8
9 0
10 4
100.9
40
AO
42
69,07
101.3
24.5
(w/O
T»I n^ 9
mini nA i
/
70.22
70 29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56 97
58.52
58.00
56 17
60.04
62 64
65
65
65
68
70
70
69
70
72
7^
72
74
06
92
67
76
14
11
07
98
85
m
62
17
13+6.9
+6.1
+5.1
+5.4
+3 6
+3 6
+/ ?
+6 4
?A y 5
77 1Q
4-9
5
78 80
7Q Q/
8 9
10 5
...
9 0
8 7
fznQ &
.. .
10 4
10 4
r^m
LHJI i
-L • P^
* *.
80
80
83
82
SI
&/
8*;
f(NR.)
MA ^
-+-1 7
...
4,0 a
.. *
j.G 7
dq Q^.
FJ/l
-1 m
rt/-
ric
OO.12
oo. 7?
, /L ej
+ O. O
rt/l
rtQ
DO. OJJ
o ( .y /
Orr
fwt\
\"A)
72"
24
22
00
/I
A^
/y
Qr?
m]89 . 28
85.04
1
85 . 29
p+5.7
.NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by (Hj; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for July 16, 19, and 20.
Digitized for26
FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
31.l Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers1 inventories of materials
and supplies 1
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventon'6?
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
ML dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
;...
1963
January
February
March
April
May
Jung
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
60
57
61
56
55
49
52
-0,3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
59
58
54
51
47
44
45
43
46 "
50
49
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
+6.0
+ 5,7
+6.0
+2.6
+7.1
+5,6
+3.9
+2.0
+5.6
+5.5
+1.2
+5.1
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
+3.1
+2,5 +3.0
52
52
55
52
51
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+o 63
+0,62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0,60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102 9
100 6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0.09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
97.3
97.7
-1.9
-0.5
0 0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
98.5
98.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
+1 0+0 4
+2 5
r+5 3
pfO 9
(NA)
60
61
57
65
65
[368
60
58
67
65
62
-2,4
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+3.7
0.0
+3 5
+7.8
+1.6
+1.4
+0.2
+1.0
+7.3
+0.5
+8.7
+11.2
+11.8
+3 8
[3+11 8
r+10 2
JH-4.8
(NA)
56
56
(HI 6l
58 .
60
60
63
55
59
65
'E74
72
70
66
68
72
66
72
70
66
0+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
r+0 84
r+0.46
p-0 28
110.6
110.7
' 113 2
116 7
[H]rll6 9
116 3
±±?.j
114 2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
[H] = December 1961,
3
Average for July 15, 16, and 19.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
54-, 69 5
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, totall
ment, labor force
survey1
(Thous.)
55,003
55,162
55, All
55,502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874
55,881
61 948
62 162
62,234
62,167
62 565
62 693
62 623
63 015
63,147
63 070
62,921
63 336
55,900
56,0^4
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291
63 133
63 230
63 /£7
63 708
63,613
63,825
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449
57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57 , 931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58,878
59 , 206
64,685
65 051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65 632
65,641
65 650
65,658
66 084
6A y&3
(Percent)
5 8
5 5
5.5
5.6
5 5
5 5
5 5
5 7
5.6
5 4
5 85 5
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment rate
r
State programs2
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
(Percent)
(Percent)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
3 7
3 3
3.6
3.7
3 5
3 7
3 6
3 7
3 5
3 5
3 5
4 7
4 5
4.4
3.9
3 8
4 0
4 2
/ /
4 4
3 5
/ 7
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
/
4
i
l
/
L 5
4 6
114
115
115
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
el07
115 0
116 4
117 5
118 0
118 ?
118 1
119 0
119 o
119 7
~MQ 1
119 8
11 Q /
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*i 7
5 9
% 7
5 7
5 9
5.7
5 7
5.5
5 5
5.6
5.8
5.5
7
7
5
/
4
2'
2
1
0
3 1
3 3
3 3
A
6
i
?
?
e!07
el 09
pi n&
Z. 1
4
4
/
/
4
4
119 8
120 6
i OT q
n no
1 Qp 7
10^
i ?y /
104
10Q
125 6
125 6
l?ri /
1
1
n
o
1
3
107
111
112
118
/ 3
116
1 57 7
nA
T OA 9
T 5Q D
T qn e
105
i p« 7
126 1
126 1
127 0
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
/
4
4
2
3
0
1
1
2
/ Q
£ o
3
3
2
2
1
0
9
8
2
2
?
2
6
8
7
6
P A
? Q
p /
9 A
y n
3 &
3 8
3 6
120
nA
3 6
3 A
3 *;
T 31 ^
1 31 A
T ^O Q
±,3&*j
T ^q 5A
XJJ.
3 /
1 93
1 5A
T q/
3 y
Ij4.
n
U
1 57
-|
O
i ^y
U4
i V?
Uf
i "3^.n
1J5
U
-i qrj rj
137. 7
i
^i1?
Uf
138.4
3 .y4
J
0
£,
J .0
-2-)
1965
January
February
March
April
May.....;:;:;;;;
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
59,334
59,676
59,992
r59,913
r 60, 09 8
[Hjp60 , 306
66 771
66 709
66,890
66 874
66 979
(H]67 £5g
/ £
o 7
5 n
4 7
9 A
/ Q
(H]4 6
y 7
p c.
3 . /4
3.^J
Q
1
9 q
p e
q 1
^.1
2 •Q
7
dO J
UU^.
4
02.9
1 /e
145
full y ft
"-i y -a
143
145
pi 46
139.1
140.5
140.8
r!41 . 4
[H)pl41,9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by ®; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by GO. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; (<e", estimated; "a", anticipated; andMNA"( not available.
^•Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benckmark for computing this series.
Prior to April 1962, the
3
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
Digitized for28
FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
50. Gross
national product
in 1954 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
income
(series 49 minus allSMSA's except New York
series 21)
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
469.1
545.5
538.7
4-75.1
553.4
547.3
478.3
559.0
554.0
483.0
566.6
561.2
485.4
571 8
568 2
487.9
577 4
573 7
494.8
587.2
583 0
502 0
599 o
592 6
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
2 , 260 . 6
2,155.9
2,233 1
2,299 6
2,266.6
2,249 9
2 Tn 3
2,268.8
2,236 7
2,340.7
2,351.5
2,324 9
431.6
434.9
437 6
440 2
441 0
441 7
443 3
444.1
446 2
44.7 7
449.5
452 0
2,416 2
2 345 9
2,357 2
454
454
456
457
460
462
9
1
5
6
2
7
466
468
472
473
477
1
9
7
8
1
2 LT2 5
.-..
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
2 419
2,368
2 561
2,463
2 559
2,605
2 527
2 610
2
2
0
1
0
5
4
2
464 o
(Mil. dol.)
112.0
113.0
114 2
115 9
115 4
115 4
116 3
116 1
117 1
116 8
116.6
117 0
117
117
118
118
120
120
120
120
122
122
122
123
4
4
3
8
1
8
7
7
1
5
2
1
18,990
19,139
19 320
19 389
19 585
19 311
1Q 6S&
19 , 671
19 844
19,837
20,112
20 253
20
20
20
20
20
20
387
374
350
276
200
486
20 71 Q
20
20
20
?0
?1
666
426
716
S^R
01 Q
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59=100)
100
100
1*00
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8
7
7
7
9
8
9
8
9
9
8
7
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
5
5
5
4
5
8
9
9
8
9
i on Q
101 1
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, '
June
July
August
September
October
November. . . .
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2 571 5
508 0
608 8
606 4
513.5
618.6
614.9
519.6
628.4
625 7
522.7
634 6
628 8
532.2
648.8
641 9
[S]p536 7
ruin658 0
("wind's? 3
9 SQO 3
o c.Q7 1
2,693 8
2 , 688 . 4
2,607 4
2 746 7
2,681 7
2,755 9
2 771 5
2,730 0
2 803 5
2,803
2,845
2,923
2 962
3
1
8
0
o A71 f)
fwlTi3 027 7
/7Q /
y an c
122 7
IP/?
21 000
91
£-3Q
y 09 Q
"I 9 /
£
91 99"3
436 6
487 8
489 3
491 4
494 9
497 9
498 7
502 3
505 '9
125
125
126
126
127
129
127
130
132
9
8
4
9
9
2
7
4
0
21
21
21
?1
22
22
21
21
22
510 2
511 0
513 8
r515 8
r520 C
[S]p523 9
132
134
135
134
9
0
3
6
2?
23
22
r22
392
777
773
Q3<S
266
254
383
66l
781
900 •
317
805
865
-pl Qe; e;
rrnrP3 ^7^
[Hjpl36 3
t>23 29 /
i
im ?
im 9
101 2
101 1
101 0
101 2
101 2
101 3
101 5
101 6
101 7
m
101 7
101 9
102 1
102 2
102 3
JElp]_Q2 5
1
102 5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended July 13.
29
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July:
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
35 70
36.95
;
38,35
37.95
36 95
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
99.4
99 0
98 8
99.8
99.8
[S]100.4
100 1
100 2
99 6
100 1
99 5
100 1
99 7
99 6
102 9
103 4
103 5
103 2
104 2
99 1
%
38.05
40.00
41 20
42 55
1
43 50
45.65
Q
98.9
97 9
98 8
99 5
99 i
98 6
99 0
98 6
97
97
9ft
97
97
97
97
97
98
9
9
1
6
A
7
ft
5
?
104 8
104 7
104 6
104 2
*».
1 ny
ft
' ' *
105 2
. *.
98 6
47 75
97 9
0106 2
96 5
(H) 49 00
%
O<7
n
. 1
%
Q
-i
•rtQi-1
-3
/
p? f .4
—017
55.4
55 7
56 0
56,1
56 4
56 3
56 9
57 0
57 3
57 4
57 A
57 8
19 0
19 1
19 1
19.2
19 3
19.4
19 5
19 5
57 q
1Q Q
58
58
58
58
58
68
58
0
1
3
5
7
9
9
?n n
S9
^9
59
60
1
1
ft
1
An
60
An
60
An
An
An
60
AT
61
n
1
^
5
5
y
5
8
n
8
A? /
A? 9
(vs&\
\SiA.)
/; o /
OJ. 4
A^ 7
Ay n
m^Ay
[Hjpo4. J"5
(•tji(\
\nA)
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
A^ /i
Q
DJ.
i
n^.4i
iup
...
TQ7 9
a49 60
(Bil. dol.)
65- Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
19 7
19 7
19 ft
19 8
20 0
on n
20 1
42 %0
43 220
43 532
44,017
44 437
44,826
45 200
45 588
/*j 818
46 206
/A 689
20 6
20 6
91 n
/ Q 1 ^9
5ftft
OA9
}-\ n
9/1
QO;
7fty
GQ
O1 /
<1
.4
Pi A
91 A
cy qn c
54, Jl?
ey r7Q<7
91 A
01
C>
0-1
Q
^i.y
oo o
oo
/
^.4
oo y
22.4
finoo
liU^'t. ?c
OO
*3
££. 1
OO
y
p22.4
/TIT*
\
(NAJ
*5 m
e ni
...
G.
f)f)
• ..
7Q1
c c oon
P5j^<:u
ee
5 00
•..
693
f)79
cq 01 o
01 A
/ 99
...
01 o
a£
5.01
y 7 A^Q
/ ft i ^/
yft An
pi y
a . e?
4 98
EED$ 02
21 2
20 3
20 4
(Percent)
Z7 17/
/9
5fi
^0
SI
51
51
50
50
90. "3
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
!??,
enri
?7U
^A m^
O
y QQ
4.77
.. .
y VV
QQ
4.
?D,U
^A ^nft
e»7
noi
!? /,U^JL
^7/,4^i
y ^i
9
e»7 n'^O
? f J /^*i
c& OQO
poj^y^d
58,962
59,603
An
tn
ou ,o^4U
A A Qd- /
oO , 984
(HJ6l,654
>» T , \
(NA)
y Qfl
4.
/«
...
5 nn
4-97
4.99
a 50 80
a52 10
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by EG; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by {H}. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Digitized 30
for FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1962
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
. *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
109.4
113.0
107.3
108,3
108.6
111 5
114 5
109.1
114 4
112.4
117 2
113.6
102.2
101,9
101.2
105.7
109 1
105 0
110 9
108.2
108 9
107.0
110 0
108.3
-7.2
-11.1
-6 1
-2,6
+0 5
6 5
-3 6
-0 9
-5 5
-5 4
-7 2
-5.3
114.3
111.4
118.5
113.6
116.4
120.3
118.4
122.4
119.7
117.5
108.9
110 2
110.8
107.6
113.6
112.3
113.0
'116,6
112.7
114.6
114.7
118.0
-5.4
-1 2
-7.7
-6 0
-2.8
-3 1
-6.0
-3 7
-5.7
-7.8
-5.0
+0.5
125.2
118.5
119 8
122.1
118.5
117.9
122.2
121.1
117.4
118.5
113.0
126.6
115.0
119 5
116 2
122.0
109.2
114,3
113.9
111.7
113.0
114.8
114.5
114.2
-10 2
+1 0
3 6
-0.1
-9.3
-3 6
-8.3
-9.4
-4.4
-3.7
-t-1.5
-12.4
122.1
122.1
117.6
125.2
128.9
133.1
113 1
119 3
123,7
155.0
121 1
120.6
-9 0
2 8
+6 1
+29 8
7 8
-12.5
115.4
119.0
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit {-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
-4,4
4 6
-2 9
4 5
-4 8
-1.0
0 7
+0 6
-2 4
-7.8
-5.2
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
(Mil. dol.)
4,434
1 , 228
1 410
1 791
1 039
1 311
1 657
1 395
1 040
1 675
1 787
1 205
4,086
4 421
4 477
3 999
2 062
1 887
/ 08?
1 Q30
4 517
4,385
3 892
4,535
4 920
4,140
2 017
2 149
2 111
2 983
2 73/
1,984
1,586
1 206
1,366
1 215
1,358
1 363
1 132
1 700
1 207
2,010
1 094
1,273
4,632
4 137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4 481
4 349
L S80
4 160
5,112
4 093
4,371
2,198
1 075
1 8/3
4 351
5 317
? 6&Q
1
J
1
QQ7
1,389
1,910
1 079
1,494
803
889
0 0
(NA)
(Mil. dol.)
1,758
1 141
-5.0
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
1,089
1,870
966
603
1,735
1,557
1 567
(NA)
~[
33
3 073
2,135
? 226
2 A35
2,154
1 966
2,240
2 33/
2 419
? 733
? ^78
2 086
1 681
2 079
? "1 /Q
CQO
4,544
4,818
L 3/.Q
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,508
2,454
1 879
2 904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
4,278
3 839
4,624
4,593
4 630
(NA)
1,830
1 628
1,874
2 926
2 025
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and<4 NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
2.24
2.08
2 07
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+555
+434
+382
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
0.00
+10.92
+10 92
+7.68
+1.56
+6.12
+4 56
+4 08
+4 56
+8 52
+10 44
+11 40
+8 28
+8 28
+9 12
+91
+94
+33
+209
+3 24
+ 3 ?/
+4 08
+2 40
+3.24
+4 80
+6 36
+1 56
+3 12
+5 52
+9 48
-2.40
+175
+4 68
+440
+391
+440
+439
+375
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
2.53
+419
2.89
+375
2 09
2 42
1 97
+ 301
+473
+268
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+6 84
+1.68
+2.52
+3.24
-2.40
+0.84
-0 84
-0.84
-1.68
+4 08
+5.76
+4 92
+441
110. Total private
borrowing
43,480
36,664
53,388
37,780
48,972
39 040
48 536
40 296
+2 90
+1 51
+2 23
+2.09
+2 09
+2 77
+2 66
+3 85
+2 82
+2 82
+2 ?8
+0 Q*)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964 '
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
+269
+31 3
+247
+138
+161
+133
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
2.41
+106
1.79
1.87
+168
2 37
0 / i
2 46
r3 ?/
T?
} *i
r>1
Qy
pi .74
-34
4-1 m
ilJO
+J><£
7A
~|~|
O
1 H&
_
-I
p-lo^c
(JO
0.00
+3 12
+2.28
0.00
+8 52
+8 52
+3 84
+6.12
+4 56
+ 3 8Z
+2 28
, ra nn
nrt
5 .20
i c
oft
, C
+2
. o&
2o
Q >"7O
r-y
.72
pn-13.56
+1 / 3
/ / 6?&
3 A AQ?
+T y ?
+1 S5
+9 /n
55 916
38 652
+P 36
+S 76
+5
+7
+8
+7
+6
+8
+13
+4
76
56
52
92
48
76
80
08
+9
+5
+4
+4
+4
+9
+8
+7
+8
+8
+10
+7
96
40
44
44
44
72
76
//
16
64
68
20
, -i -i
+1 74
+1 Q7
S7 3/8
/O 37?
58 772
39 892
52 448
44 200
, /
i rt f\Q
/ 6 06/
.. •
57
;e /AS
r-1 . 20
pKL2.24
+/
£
An ?ny
/ / A^A
9%
+3 AQ
+/
*!/
31
+y 7A
+y 9ft
11 / q
i r\
ao
. a (S.o
+12.35
62 , 240
48 , 868
+o. 2o
_i_/r x n
+O.60
+1 7Q
+ 1 /8
+317
66 5?A
...
r7/L
n.
+4 66
+^ ??
+5 78
+1 42
+11 . 7o
+6.24
+2 04
+2 08
/. T » \
(NA)
(NA)
+13.14
+12.46
+6.32
+11.04
+11.35
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
32FRASER
Digitized for
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1962
113. Net change .in
consumer installment debt
114. Treasury bill
rate*
115. Treasury bond
yields*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
January
February
March
April
Mav
,*
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
(Mil. dol.)
+2 23
+3 12
+3.74+ 5.82
+5 04.
+4.67
+4- 49
+4 66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82
2.75
2.75
2.72
2.74
2 69
2.72
2.94
2.84
2.79
2.75
2.80
2.86
4 08
4 09
4.01
3.89
3 88
3.90
4 02
3.98
3.94
3.89
3.87
3.87
4 55
3 34
3 21
3 14
3 06
3 11
3 26
3 28
3 23
3 11
3.02
3.04
3.07
*> 6Q
i 6A# ?
4 54
4 A2
4.31
4 26
4.30
4 41
4 39
4.28
4.27
4.23
4.28
5 68
5 65
5 64
5 60
5.59
5 58
5 57
5.56
5.55
5.54
5.53
1 80Q 1
1 672 0
+5.82
+5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11
+ 5.77
+4.09
+6 37
+4.60
+5.52
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3.32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3.92
3.93
3.97
3.97
4.00
4.01
3.99
4.04
4 07
4 11
4.14
4.22
4 25
4.26
4 35
4.35
4 32
4.34
4.33
4.40
4 36
4 42
4.49
3.10
3 15
3.05
3 10
3 11
3 21
3 22
3.13
3 20
3 20
3 30
3 27
5.52
5 48
5.47
5 46
5.45
5 45
5.45
5.45
5 45
+5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4.44
+ 5.80
+ 5.22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
3 53
3 53
3 55
3.48
3.48
3.48
3.^8
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
4 15
4 49
4 38
3 22
3 1/
4 18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4 13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
i i%
Q
p£
*i /*5
c yc
o r\n >
p)
4.49
4,48
4.49
4 43
4.43
4 49
4.49
4.47
4.47
3.28
3.20
3 20
3 18
3 19
3 23
3.25
3 18
3 13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5 46
5 46
5 46
5.45
5.45
5.45
2,061
1
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
4.14
4.16
4.15
4.15
4.14
4.14
4.44
4 44
4.49
4.48
4.52
4.57
3 06
3 09
3.18
3.15
3 17
3 24
5.45
5 45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.44
1,217 3
1,592 7
2,752.7
2,380.3
2,277.7
(NA)
L \L
5 AS
5 45
5 45
5 /5
1 795 4
1 761 7
1 835 6
1 7Z8 3
1,702 5
1,907 9
1,542.8
1,724.6
1,838 7
985:7
2 123 6
1,957 8
1 913 7
1,895 2
1 803 1
1 840 8
1,922 1
1 958 2
l Q67 s
1 965 6
2 090 8
2 0/2 Q
2 046 2
2 . 061 . 8
2,034 2
2 122 9'
2,108 8
2 235 3
2,154.8
2,196.8
2,430 4
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"r estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"; not available.
33
TABLE
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
Year and month
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
89. Excess of
81. Index of consumer prices
receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S.
balance of payments
(Mil. dol.)
Revised3
(Mil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
1,326.5
May
1 404 1
1 350 7
+341.8
+489 5
+330 3
+430 . 4
+357 6
+484 9
1,3^6.6
+401 . 7
1 3A5 Q
l /,7l /
1 312 1
+356 6
1 319 8
1,341 7
1,365.0
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 /?/ Q
1 376 5
1,099.9
1,510.4
+/ 36 5
+ 9QQ
7
1,434 4
1 , 460 . 3
+608 5
+585.9
1,519.5
1,540.6
+ 554 5
+520.5
1,539 4
+ 522 4
+515 8
1 578 1
1,574 9
1 5/6 /
1,547 7
1 697 7
1 642 2
+544 8
1 , 449 . 5
1,497.3
1 , 443 . 3
1,455.4
1,465.5
-433
-711
+462 2
1 , 479 . 8
1,416.3
1,430.9
-267
+230 7
-114.2
+613.2
+473 0
+499 1
+478.9
+372.2
+391.3
+424.8
+514.9
+512.1
+500.1
+611.0
1 , 484 . 8
1 414 6
-792
-1,199
-1,108
-210
-153
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers'
94. Index of construction contracts, unfilled orders,
durable goods invalue
dustries
(1957-59=
100)
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105 5
105 9
105 8
105 8
105 9
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
106.1
106.1
106.2
106 3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
107 8
107.7
107 8
108.0
108 1
108 1
108 1
108 2
108 3
108 4
108 6
108 9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
115
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
45.80
46 . 42
45.75
8.44
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43
43
43
44
37
58
18
09
45.06
45.74
46.68
8.32
8.26
8.81
a. 88
47 53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
• 9.38
10.05
47.17
47.08
46.68
11.02
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,518.4
+ 533 9
-257
-582
-593
+688 9
+607 1
+/QQ 1
1 366
+788 2
1 11
136
• 1/3
47.07
47 . 64
47. BO
12.08
48.84
49
50
51
51
52
53
22
04
30
37
14
14
13. ?3
14 54
53 /I
1 6/
53 96
1 37
5/ ?ft
55 HQ
55 53
14 97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1 206 4
l 600 5
1 869 0
1 83A 7
T
7Q& Q
(WA 1 )
+10 9
7 ft
-668
109 o
109 o
+883 7
109 1
+6/5 6
1 OQ 5
i ; 7$ c>
(NA1)
1
\,WA,I
/MA
i no.7Q
iuy
( TiJ A ^
U\1AJ
i /n
1 /"!
1 S9
1y e
145
fWAl
^IN-HJ
•r*5A 37
Y*^A
•n^A
15 58
...
ft/
^A
/TaA\
^INA;
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capita]
3
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Digitized 34
for FRASER
bed
BASIC DATA
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
Year and month
(1957-59=
100)
1962
January
February
March
April
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
Jung
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March • • •
April
May
, "
June
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
113
108
122
126
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
129
125
128
120
121
122
123
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
1P3
125
126
128
131
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
133
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
128
128
1 ?9
130
131
132
133
134.
.
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
115
124.
J U |y
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
134
131
135
138
138
339
140
141
141
pi 42
1 3Z
1 33
126- France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
1 ?/
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
134
135
136
136
129
128
132
133
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
129
136
137
136
138
158
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
207
211
123
123
139
142
140
1 39
l v/
1 ?3
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
144
143
143
1 1 £>
1 39
1 39
140
150
143
147
145
145
150 '
147
150
141
140
141
132
132
141
141
140
138
172
169
1 7-2
168
166
164
166
156
165
165
166
166
219
??/
pp/
226
229
234
234
234
239
242
237
?40
138
140
139
141
rl65
169
165
pi 68
242
237
r244
p244
(NA)
(NA)
135
r!33
133
r!34
135
135
r!36
139
140
124
123
123
122
123
123
128
128
129
142
141
143
p!42
r!31
r!30
r!29
pi 29
(NA)
(NA)
146
146
143
p!45
(NA)
1 ?9
156
r!55
r!50
r!53
p!54
(NA)
p!40
(NA)
149
182
151
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
1 A9
151
1 S3
?l /
217
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Sfock prices—80 industries
Industrial maferials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricuftural employmenf—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR .COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY i965 bed
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
Mar.
1965
May
1965
Apr.
1965
Nov.
1948
June
1965
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more c
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
6
6
1
7
6
15
9
1
5
1
2
I
; .. ..
*
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
2
2
11
1
"4
2
1
5
4
5
2
2
3
2
"i
24
21
16
12
*20
0
2
1
5
9
24
46
24
38
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
*2
"i
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
1
5
5
l
10
11
11
45
91
1
1
9
11
82
Apr.
1953
1
1
3
4
3
1
1
2
1
3
**2
3
"3
3
"i
4
"2
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
11
0
11
73
Apr,
1957
1
2
8
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
2
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan,
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
,
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
13
2
4
4
**4
2
2
5
1
2
1
1
^O
5
2
21
5
21
1
2
13
2
"i
2
9
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
* 5
2
1
2
3
"3
24
0
24
0
X
20
15
2
21
33
is
**i
2
i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more . . *
7 months
„
6 months
5 months
.......
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
i
1
1
2
6
11
55
"*5
1
"i
"3
1
3
2
"4
4
11
36
11
IB
11
5
45
1
3
511
45
1
3
6
11
55
"4
4
2
1
"i
4
3
11
11
27
36
NOTE; All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War; and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
4
2
38
bed
JULY
7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
39
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JUIY 1965
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT- Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
. Employees in nonagr. establishment$~30 Indus.
(6-mo. sponj—
1-mo. span —)
!
V
Sv;
hiL
Industrial production-24 Indus
esale prices, mfrd. goods-23 inrfus.
-mo^ $p4_n — ^ _
D54. Sales of retail stores -24 types of stores
•rPW v :h ! : i
bed
JUL'f
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1965
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
100
50
0
orders, our. goods rntrs.-400 cos.
100
50
0
|D4B. Carloadings-19 mfrd. commodity groups
|
100
50
n+0.5
(millions—pf==cars-4-Q span)
-0.5
D61. New plant 1 and equipment expend.^17-22 indus,
100
50
0
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (Apr. 1965)
D48 (June 1965)
061 (May 1965)
Uul.MM
••••":' '1
lllJllllL
iMlHlllr
Actual
1st Q 1364 - 1st Q 1965
3rd Q 1963- 3rd Q 1964
4th Q 1964 - 1st Q 1965
Anticipated
3rd Q 1964 - 3rd Q 1965
3rd Q 1964 - 3rd Q 1965
2nd Q 1965 - 3rd Q 1965
miluli
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
DL Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
Year and month
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
3-quarter span
1-quarter span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
21.4
61.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31/0
38.1
54.8
78.6
July
August
September
October
November
December
85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
64.3
35.7
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
76.2
50.0
61.9
14.3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64-3
66.7
73.8
9.5
63,9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50,0
47.2
65
47
r29
*76
'?6
'53
*59
74
47
53
*59
*53
*53
r65
*6S
r?6
53
76
'56
r71
53
44
63.9
61.1
68.1
*32
r59
r72.2
p72.2
76
77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
69.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
....
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4.8
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14-3
76.2
64.3
92.9
85.7
50.0
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
r59.5
63.9
43.1
54.2
63,9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
U.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72,2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72. a
1965
January. . . ,
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
52.4
59.5
76.2
r!9.0
83.3
p!4.3
r73.8
pSl.O
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
(NA)
(NA)
r44.4
P47.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
he 6th
•
• indexes
• •
- 2d
- • quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adon the
6th month
month of
of spar
span; 1-quarter
are placed on the 1st month of the
justed components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for. most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manu. facturingr FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quartej span
D19. Index of stock prices, 5001common
stocks (80 industries)
9:m onth span
1-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
54
'48
JUiy
*56
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
*59
. ...
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7-
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
51.9
29.4
75.0
55
. 44.9
76.9
57
*60
57
'%
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
'56
55
(NA)
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
80.9
55.3
48.9
36.2
46.8
44.7
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65,4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
80.5
58.4
53.8
30,8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
3
38. 5
69.2
76.9
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
78.7
78.7
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
84.4
50
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
46.8
76.6
38.3
48.9
46.8
19.1
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
17.5
47.5
*47
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
18.7
67.5
93.7
95.0
53.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
25.6
75.0
'
38.5
30 ;s
30.8
3
6l.5
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963j on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for July 15, 16, and 19.
on 79
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
D47. Index of industrial production.
(24 industries)
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
83.3
79.2
70.8
91,7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
9-month span
1-month span
6-month span
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
72.9
95.8
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
60.9
63.0
58.7
54.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
30.4
26.1
26.1
1-month span
1962
January.
February
March
April
May
;. . .
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December
65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
35.0
43.3
50.0
25.0
87.5
• 87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
35.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
72.9
83.3
83.3
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
67.4
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
1964
January
February
March
April.
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
78.3
75.0
75.0
80.0
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
58.3
79.2
70.8
83.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
. 68.8
43.8
66.7
70.8
79.2
91.7
95.8
85.4
91.7
87.5 '
87.5
81.2
68.8
87.5
83.3
87.5
r91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
62.5
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
r62.5
63.0
67.4
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
60.9
52.2
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
54.3
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
66.7
81.7
86.7
r58.3
'56.7
pSO.O.
83.3
76.7
p83.3
75.0
62.5
77.1
r54.2
r60.4
p64.6
r79.2
83.3
p83.3
50.0
72.9
20.8
r62.5
83.3
P52.1
. r75.0
p8l.2
63.0
60.9
67.4
71.7
r60.9
p60.9
76.1
rS0.4
P78.3
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
a. 7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
• the 4th month, and 9-month* indexesare placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components, are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
036. New orders, durable manu-.
factures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June . . . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May,
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
*80
*88
*76
*84
57.*9
94.7
-68
"?6
"so
'74
74
63^2
89^5
-96
72
74
71
70
42.1
68.4
-67
74
82
'76
*76
63^2
63*. 2
+29
'76
'80
*77
*76
73,7
78.9
+39
74
"so
*76
57.9
68.4
+44
*82
'84
*82
"so
78.9
78.9
+21
*84
*85
*82
'84
68.'4
73.7
*S3
*87
*84
'84
84.2
68.'i
+34
'82
"86
'si
'84
(NA)
94.' 7
+68
*83
*87
'84
'84
89 .'5
+ 51
*85
89^5
r+49
*84
84.2
'"76
Actual
'
(NA)
*88
*88
(NA)
Anticipated
65.6
62.5
68!s
68*. 8
65*.6
65.*6
46 .*9
68^8
40.6
50.0
65 '.6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
r-39
71.9
50.0
62." 5
50.6
84.T
75.0
96.9
68 "J
56.2
65.6
(NA)
68^8
78.1
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Average weekly hours
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
40.6
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.5
41.3
41.4
40.9
41.1
41.0
40.2
40.2
41.2
41.6
41.5
41.7
40.6
39.9
41.1
41.4
41.5
41.4
40.4
40.3
41.0
41.5
41.5
41.6
40.4
40.4
41.2
41.3
42.2
41.7
40.0
39.4
40.5
41.1
42.8
41.3
41.0
40.1
42.0
41.7
42.4
42.5
41.4
40.7
42.0
41.7
42.5
42.7
41.0
40.5
41.2
41.2
43.6
41.6
41.7
40.9
41.6
41.3
41.9
42.2
41.4
40.4
41.4
41.4
42.1
41.9
42.3
40.4
41.9
40.8
39.5
42.4
40.3
42.6
40.9
39.5
42.4
40.6
41.7
41.0
39.8
42.540.6
42.6
41.0
40.0
42.0
40.3
42.3
40.9
39.1
43.1
41.2
43.3
41.5
39.9
43.4
41.3
43.6
41.6
40.0
42.1
•40.4
42.3
40.5
39.4
43.0
41.1
43.0
41.3
39.9
42.9
40.8
43.0
41.1
39.7
41.0
39.7
41.0
36.0
42.9
40.9
39.0
40.9
36.0
42.7
40.6
39.6
40.8
36.0
42.9
40.8
38.4
35.9
43.0
40.7
37.0
40.0
34.9
42.7
41.0
39.3
42.0
36.7
43.0
41.0
38.8
42.0
36.8
43.2
40.9
37.5
41.5
36.5
43.1
38.5
41.6
41.9
41.4
38.1
38.4
41.4
41.6
41.2
37.9
38.4
41.4
41.6
40.7
37.9
38.6
41.3
42.1
41.8
37.9
38.5 ,
42.1
42.5
41.3
37.7
38.5
41.9
41.7
42.4
38.1
38.5
41.8
42.2
42.4
38.3
40.8
'35.9
41.3
35,8
42.4
38.5
42.4
42.7
41.1
38.3
40,8
37.1
41.4
36.4
42.9
38.6
41.8
42.1
41.1
37.8
21,011
3,281
1,636
41.2
38.5
42.0
42.1
41.5
3B.4
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries . . .
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
..
/*
19,945
3,175
20,016
19,907
3,847
2,296
21,130
3,802
2,291
21,714
3,593
2,077
19,342
3,280
1,825
2,018
22,043
3,456
1,876
21,254
3,539
20,502
3,480
1,727
3,472
1,943
1,968
2,013
2,069
1,946
2,045
2,110
2,065
2,098
2,010
(NA)
2,956
185
3,030
24S
2,909
203
2,952
281
2,923
219
3,050
185
3,100
166
3,107
156
3,116
144
(NA)
(NA)
525
209
524
233
542
206
528
205
520
183
575
26?
598
213
581
222
591
204
(NA)
(MA)
200
211
224
211
211
234
245
285
258
(NA)
CNA)
Other primary metals. . .
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment . . .
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
Digitized for46
FRASER
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA Not available.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9- month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
O.
QJ
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
t •
O
>
O
*-*
^
C
TO
.*"*
QJ
^»
ro
t_
O.
>x
CO
C
Z3
<C
co
O
2:
Q
.-^
Li-
S
<t
S
14
76
64
93
52
60
76
19
83
14
-
+
.-
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
O
+
-
+
-
+
O
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
-
+
-
0
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
0
O
+
-
0
4
+
-
-
+
0
-
+
0
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
.
-
+
O
r
o
O
-
+
O
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
0
-
O
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
f
-
+
-
O
O
+
+
-
+
+
O
-
+
+
+
'
O
+
+
O-
I^I'JlI'-l
£ S
II , —
= » . —-3• <C
5 co
»
<
4
33
86
74
88
79
79
95
60
74
81
+
-
0
-
c? § I S
!'
* Li£ S
S
O
.—
-O
+
0
+
+
+
-
0
+
+
-
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
61
68
-
-
-
0 -
-
-
+
-
+
+
O
+
-
56
68
49
39
64
50
44
47
-
+
-
+
o-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills .
54
58
72
58
64
83
72
64
72
72
Nnnfprrnn^ mptfll^
Iron and steel foundries
Fabricated metal products:
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
.
...........
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
•
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment * .
,
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
....
0
-
o'-
'
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
-
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Feb.
Sept.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July 1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES*- Continued
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
2,571
562
2,448
574
2,807
590
2,694
638
2,581
557
2,597
586
2,711
604
2,929
602
2,811
614
(NA)
(NA)
630
602
708
609
618
523
529
701
652
(NA)
5,538
5,364
6.218
4,771
4,760
5,690
6,301
6,453
5,873
5,195
...
...
...
...
113.2
116.7
116.9
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture total . . . .
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23, INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Index: 1957-59 = 100
Industrial materials price index
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
110.7
115.3
114.2
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib ), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib )
;
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib)
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
.298
.056
35.728
1.510
.308
.055
39.165
1.619
.339
.056
40.157
1.660
.362
.061
35.933
1.866
.352
.073
36.060
1.564
.116
.328
.182
1.703
.141
.141
.113
.327
.181
1.693
.140
.117
.323
.180
1.706
.140
.124
.315
.183
1.732
.140
.125
.311
.186
1.727
.150
.130
.306
.194
1.612
.150
.133
.305
.200
1.598
.143
12.414
.246
.056
.146
12.164
.249
.059
.146
.146
11.970, 11.946
.248
.250
.066
.062
.147
11.874
.260
.073
.138
11.779
.264
.083
.149
11.803
.262
.080
.300
.054
; . . 32.839
1.350
..
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.382
.413
.075
.074
37.328 36.929
1.661
1.819
.152
.143
.304
.204
1.651
.426
.414T
.076
.073
38.600 36.055
1.910
1.894
.420
.075
35.677
1.837
.151
.147
.303
.206
1.642
.152
.146
.303
.207
1.643
.150
.141
.304
.212
1.692
.156
.158
11.652 11.629
.268
.272
.081
.079
.162
11.733
.265
.079
.159
11.946
.259
.081
23,294
Millions of dollars
21,777
21,773
21,935
22,266
22,805
22,865
23,375
4,540
4,704
4,769
4,743
4,755
4,841
4,809
4,910
4,894
(MA)
1,589
1,543
190
420
1,623
1,533
200
427
1,642
1,580
192
443
1,633
1,630
205
439
1,600
1,516
192
427
1,720
1,712
196
456
1,699
1,666
208
454
1,741
1,676
197
432
1,772
1,755
210
474
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
250
244
257
269
261
265
253
254
262
(NA)
22,254 £3,317
NOTE: Qata are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
'•Average for July 15, 16, and 19.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency,
3
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
48
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
B |
Directions of Change — Continued
1-month spans
1964
Diffusion index title and components
9-month spans "
1964
1965
1965
|:§I|.«£ll- | = 5
f i § 1 I -.i £ i .1 I 1,1 ^ £ S £ s ,-§ ,^
&
ir>
t
5 8
0 2 =
*
§ - S
! ' & . £ §
"a
? ' " 7 l V : ^ < f ^ T > T 1
C
=3
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
;
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc (Ib )
Burlap (yd )
Pnttnn flh ^ IS-markpt av/praop
Print cloth (yd ) average
-
-
4
4
I-
-
4
-
-
-
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
-
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
-
-
+
-
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
+
4
4
+
0 - 4
4
4
+
--
73
4
-
(
4
-
-
4
4
4
4
+
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
--
4
-
-
4
-
+
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
4
4
-
_
-
4
4
4
4
4
44
+
_
4
+
_
-
4
4
+
+
+
-
4
+
+
+
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
-
+
+
--
+
+
-
-
+
-
444
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
--
+
- . -
+
+
+
-
+
77
69
4
69
11
-
-
+
-
+
+
_
+
_
+
_
+
_
4
4
+
-
-
4
_
54
58
38
77
81
85
+
4
+
77
-
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
69
69
4
4
4
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
69 77 62
+ + +
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4
4
_
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
_
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
-
+
+
44
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
-
4
+
0
4
-
-
-
4
-
-
4
-
-
31
-
4
-
444
4
4
4
+
"<J
-
4
+
+
t%
4
4
4
+
-
+
4
4
54
4
-
-
38
4
4
4
4
4
-
_
4
-
-
-
4
-
-
-
4
4
_
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
+
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
'
4
4
0
-
62
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
~
+
4
4
-
69
4
-
-
-
-
4
-
4
4
4
0
4
4
-
-
-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
§•
<t
4
4
4
-
Wnnt tone (\h }
4
4
4
4
4
4
Hides (Ib)
4
4
4
4
4
Rosin (100 Ib )
4 4
+
+
+
+
Rubber (Ib )
+
O
+
+
+
+
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
Percent rising
38 65 62 62 50 73 21 62 83 52
4
4
4
4
4
4
All retail sales
4
4
4
4
4
4
Grocery stores
4
4
4
4
4
Other food stores
4
4
4
4
4
4
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise). . - + - + - + + - + 4
4
4
+
Variety stores
+
+
+
--+
+
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
-
+
+
.4-
+
_
4
+
O
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
4
83
83
75
69
83
81
60
62
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
4+
+
+
(4
+
_
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
_
-
4
+
-
+
-
-
+
_
4
75 81
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ +
4
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
4
4
+
+
+
-
4
+
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
44
+ = rising; o>= unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
4
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
Average for July 15, 16, and 19.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
49
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers —
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
502
522
509
519
504
531
513
499
516
(NA)
223
'699
381
754
220
218
735
373
765
227
217
709
398
732
222
224
719
375
711
227
206
679
388
729
237
219
715
366
756
235
210
720
374
746
224
205
706
380
738
230
226
730
365
794
242
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3,880
246
1,670
713
3,645
240
1,683
721
3,755
234
1,701
726
5,025
234
1,690
722
4,301
230
1,695
734
4,608
247
1,798
745
4,352
240
1,774
748
4,204
251
1,798
760
4,284
255
1,828
747
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
495
503
495
494
499
515
504
512
526
(NA)
1965
1964
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
58,301
104
531
335
498
1,012
932
1,129
1,040
1,145
234
319
1,142
72
799
1,165
493
604
530
115
337
311
634
3,103
3,999
3,224
9.007
58,458
103
530
338
500
1,026
945
1,149
1,049
1,180
234
323
1,133
71
803
1,173
494
606
530
116
340
313
58,382
102
528
339
498
1,022
901
1,146
1,053
942
232
326
1,132
78
803
1,173
494
604
526
116
334
312
58,878
102
532
340
500
1,038
933
1,145
1,065
1,156
235
330
634
3,080
4,005
3,226
q.ocn
638
3,106
3,996
3,233
9.0/5
639
3,162
3,997
3,246
Q.o6*i
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
50
1,151
80
808
1,181
496
605
530
114
337
315
59,206
100
536
344
501
1,041
951
1,165
1,078
1,181
237
333
1,154
76
812
1,186
495
610
532
113
339
315
637
3,244
4,020
3,259
Q.irn
59,676
101
540
348
503
1,046
979
1,168
1,099
1,212
240
334
1,144
73
820
1,192
498
615
537
112
350
316
59,992
100
544
352
508
1,047
957
1,179
1,113
1,237
241
337
1,147
72
824
1,199
500
616
539
114
354
318
59,91-3
99
535
353
504
1,043
982
1,180
1,125
1,247
243
338
635
3,281
3,997
3,288
633
3,304
4,042
3,303
629
3,186
4,044
3,318
Q.2//
Q.T1Q
1,124
73
824
1,207
501
617
538
113
356
316
Q.OJ.Z
60,098
101
532
353
501
1,038
981
1,18?
1,131
1,252
242
335
1,129
73
822
1,211
500
617
538
112
354
317
60,306
629
3,210
4,058
3,331
Q ^rn
632
3,215
4,072
3,346
103
530
354
502
1,061
988
1,194
1,136
1,265
245
337
1,111
73
822
1,231
499
617
542
114
356
316
Q.'WI
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
£ § | s .5 £ ! £ ! . . ! £ § ! ! . ! ? « £ » , . !
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
....
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
C3
5
>
—
+
O
O
C
+
D
J
+
5
+
<
D
o
T
O
~
Q
—
.
T
+
O
CD
CD
rrj
+
+
+
+
---
+
4+
+
+
--+ +
+
_
+
+
+
+
-
-
_
+
+
+
+
•_
,
,
•4-
-H
_
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
_
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- ' + -
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
--
+
--
^
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products • *
Mining
Contract construction . . ,
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
ay
+
-\-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
--
_
_
+
.(-
+
-
+
+
+
H-
4 , ^ . 4 ,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
'
O
-
S
'
T
O
O
J
<C
C
73
L
j
oo
47
O
O
O
C
2:
88
78
D
m
C
^
O
D
Q - ^ U _
67
0
82
+
-
-
1964
1965
O
+
-
.
4
-
-
-
6-month spans
-
C
O
3
& > Q _ . » i i > o A . i » ! _ i ! _ : > %
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products . * Printing and publishing
3
o
4-
CD
r
87
o
C
L
S
<:
58
57
C
a
S
80
1965
I ' o l s . S f f l S - i - l
TO
^
Q . ^ s ' S
< C S . —1 , —»
=
S"
< 6 0
"G
O
0
S I
OJ
O
75
75
92
87
80
90
90
83
77
83
—
—
0
*t*
—•
4~
*t~
4~
O
—
+
4
0
....
.
^
+
1964
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment •
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
3
TO
o
1-month spans
D41 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
O-
TO
Q , - ^ u _ ^ < a : s - ^ . ^ < : < x 3
...
+
+
+
+
0
4
+
-
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
-
-
4
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ "+
+
+
f
4
-
4
-
+
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
_
+
4-
+
4-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
4-
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
+
-
-
4
-
4
+
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
+
4
-
4
0 4 -
-
1 - 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 -
•+
-
-
4 - 4 - 4 -
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
1
—
+
+
+
O
4
4-
o
4-
+
—
-H
+
0
+
—
+
—
-
4
—
-
4
-
—
4
-
—
4
-
'
+
O
O
—
O
O - H
+
+
—
—
4~
+
+
+
+
O
O
—
0
—
+
—
—
+
+
+
OO
+•
O
0
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
+
4
-
4
4
-
+
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr,
May
June
2,997
8,754
2,340
7,451
2,997
8,763
2,344
7,491
3,004
8,794
2,345
7,514
3,006
S, 817
2,355
7,557
141.9
Thousands of employees
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTSMJon.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
2,951
8,573
2,328
7,143
2,960
8,592
2,320
7,189
2,964
8,633
2,331
7,265
2,970
8,634
2,354
7,306
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products *..........*.....
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
»
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
*
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products • • •
Foods beverages and tobacco
Tobacco products
Minerals:
0031
Metal stone and earth minerals
Stone and earth minerals
2,975
8,654
2,352
7,340
2,987
8,730
2,335
7,407
Index: 1957-59 = 100
133.3
134.0
131.2
135.0
137.7
139.1
140.5
140.8
141.4
132! 8
134.8
132.8
134.3
131.8
130.7
134^6
136.9
137^9
139.7
136 '.9
144.9
140.4
145.1
'141.5
147.5
141 '.4
147.2
143
147
144.1
Hl.l
135.3
137.4
145 !6
142.9
130.9
138.6
145^4
143.8
105.3
137.6
148^2
146.3
129.2
140.2
149! 9
148.5
140.3
142.0
152.7
151,7
139.7
145.3
153^8
153.4
144.4
146.9
155^2
155.3
144.6
145.5
156^8
156.2
147.6
146.9
125.6
114.1
127.6
109.7
"126i9
110.8
127.7
109.2
130.2
105.5
131 ! 8
115.6
129.2
120.5
129.' 9
114.2
131 .'i
153
157
149
143
126
131
(NA)
144.4
133.4
144'.1
132.6
147.4
135.9
149.3
137.4
151 '.5
139.1
154*.3
140.8
154^3
142.4
155*.6
143.2
156*.6
143.9
133.5
131.6
(HA)
(NA)
123^5
135.1
103.1
125.8
135.8
100.3
127.5
137.2
102.4
129.6
139.1
103.2
130 !9
140.6
103.3
131.' 4
143.7
101.2
13(X9
144.0
100.8
131^9
143.7
98.3
132.8
124.3
135^5
123.0
137*.6
123.6
133*. 8
123.9
140.2
125.6
13?! 5
127.7
139^6
128.5
140.7
128.3
160 ! 8
121.2
158.2
165.0
120.4
162.4
162 '.5
122.9
161.0
163 '.6
121.6
160.5
166 '.5
120.6
164.0
167*. 8
121.5
171-1
169 '.5
122.2
172.6
121.5
167.7
117.7
157
145
V
133
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
132
120.4
121.4
120.0
120.6
12C)! 7
123.3
122.8
107.9
111.3
105.1'
112.3
112.2
121.7
169! 6
139.* 2
129.3
160.5
169.1
120.7
(NA)
120.4
120.3
(NA)
129
162
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
121
121.0
123*. 5
125.4
123^2
123.5
123^6
127.2
122.6
120.9
109.2
111.1
108.7
110.4
107.2
110.7
103.2
110.3
103.1
111.4
107.9
112.0
114.2
112.4
111.3
119.6
115.*7
119.7
127.1
123.9
12l! 8
123.4
123^4
122.9
124*. 6,
124.1
125 '.8
118.2
121.2
124.2
(NA)
(NA)
101.1
101.2
101.4
101.4
101.5
101.8
102.0
102.4
102.6
103.1
100.1
100.3
100.6
98.5
101.5
100.9
101.7
100.9
100.2
98.2
98.3
98.0
99.3
98.0
101.7
101.1
101.8
101.4
101.7
101.5
99.6
98.0
101.8
101.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
114
112
125
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel .
*
100.6
100.3
98.6
98.6
98.6
98.6
101.8
101.1
101.9
100.7
101.8
100.6
101.8
100.8
102.0
101.3
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA Not available.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Digitized for52
FRASER
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
TABLE
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
c
> jy r =o -< Qu ; i sj i* a- .> r »o c: =
o> x -c ^j o* S
3
to
o z c p - p u - E < s ^ >
<t
C
O
O
2
T
Q
—»
U_
+
+
2E
<t
3£
O
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
t § I s i ? l £ i f
I £t = il£§II
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRlCULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
---
+
+
+
+
+
+
D47, INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
44 67 71 79 75 62 77 54 60 65
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
O - 4 - 4 +
+
+
+
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Machinery, except electrical
4+
+
4 - 4 - 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 Electrical machinery.
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Transportation equipment
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Instruments and related products
..,.....,. + Clay glass and lumber
+
+
+
+
_+
+
Clay glass and stone products
+
-+
+
+
-+
NA
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous.
+
444O 4 - 4 - 4 Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - +
- N A
Apparel products
4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - N A N A
Leather and products
_ . f
_ _ _ N A N A
+
+
+
Paper and printing
paper and products
+
+
+
- +
+
-NA
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum and rubber
+
4- 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - N A
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber 3nd plsstics products
44 - 4 - 4 - 4 NA
NA
Foods, beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages *
*
*.
4
4
4
4
N A
Tobacco products
44+
4- NA NA
Minerals:
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
_
+
+
88
81
69
88
83
88
92
79
83
83
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
4-
+
+
+
+•
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
-
-
4
-
4
+
+
-
+
+
4
-
4
-
+
+
+
4
-
4
-
+
+
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
4
+
+
+
+
4
-
-
+
4
4
-
4
+
H
-
-
4
+
4
-
-
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
-
4
+
4
4
-
4
4
-
-
4
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
4
-
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
-
4
+
-
4
-
-
N
A
44
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ N A N A
+ NA
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
- - N A
+ N A N A
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
61
59
61
70
78
83
76
+
+ NA
NA
NA NA
Pnal
+
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
percent rising
*
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
+ Arising; o = unchanged; - = fall ing.
-_
-
4
-
-
4
-
61
O
4
4
61
O
4 - -
-
52
O
-
4
-
61
.
O-
-
-
4
-
4-
4-
63
61
67
-
-
+
4
-
-
+
-
4
-
WA
-
4-
NA
72
61
-
-
O
-
61
56
+
O
+
+
+
+
0
+
0
+
0
O
+
-
-
-
-
-
O
-NA
80
-
78
+
NA Not available.
•"•The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available,, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
S3
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
beef
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Index: 1957-59 = 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Fabricated structural metal products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Annarel
Pulp paper and all ied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
x
105,8
99.4
108.3
104.1
104.8
96.7
100.7
108.1
107.1
99.5
108.3
104.0
104.8
96.6
100.7
108.8
110.0
99.5
108.1
104.6
104.9
96.2
100.6
109.8
112.3
99.7
108.3
104.6
104.9
96.3
100.6
108.7
113.6
99.9
108.0
104.9
104.1
95.8
100.8
'109.4
112.5
100.1
108.6
104.3
105.1
96.9
101.0
108.4
112.7
100.4
109.0
104.4
105.0
97.3
100.7
109.1
113.2
101.0
109.1
104.6
105.4
97.3
101.0
111.0
114.9
101.4
109.5
104.7
105.6
96.6
100.5
110.8
116.0
101.2
109.0
104.8
105.6
97.2
100.7
113.0
101.3
107.1
99.0
103.1
95.9
103.1
99.1
96.7
92.3
92.0
105.4
101.6
107.2
99.2
103.2
95.9
103.1
99.0
96.8
89.8
92.1
105.3
101.0
107.3
99.2
103.6
96.2
103.1
99.1
96.9
92.1
91.8
105.4
100.4
107.3
98.8
103.4
96.5
103.1
99.0
97.0
93.6
91.8
105.0
101.1
107.4
98.9
102.5
96.9
103.1
102.2
108.0
99.2
102.9
96.4
103.3
98.7
97.4
94.0
92.0
105.9
102.0
108.0
99.3
102.7
96.2
103.4
99.3
97.3
94.5
92.1
106.7
102.9
108.5
99.5
102.8
96.0
103.5
104.1
108.4
100.1
103.8
95.8
103.4
100.1
97.5
95.5
93.2
107.3
106.0
107.7
100.7
103.9
95.7
103.5
100.1
97.4
95.4
93.6
107.7
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
98.9
97.3
93.3
91.8
105.1
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
54
99.6
97.5
94.4
92.2
106.4
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
JULY 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1965
1964
Diffusion index title and components
Q_
DO
9
s-
00
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
! 1>:
0
O
.4
0
•
C>
2
TO
1
CJ
CD
o
4
4
-
4
4
4
0
O
4
0
4
O
4
TO
0
-
4
-
4
O
4
O
TO
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
4
O
0
Manmade fiber textile products . . .
O
Pulp paper and allied products
*
4
O
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
Hides skins leather and leather products
4
4
-
4
4
-
4
0
0
4
4
h
4
4
-
4
O
4
4
4
4
4
S,
-£
<**
4-
^
^
5
4
4
.4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
0
4
4
4
4-
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
.-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
I
t
8 I:
76
73
60
24
92
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
-
4
4
•4
-I-
-
+
4
CuO
4
4
4
Q
82
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
§
C
1
9
_Q
TO
TO
I0
71
67
4
4
4
Q
85
-°
=
•?
O-
4
TO
=
•
S
<
S
,-
82
69
66
75
77
77
80
58
f
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
4
4
4
4
4
t-
4
4
H
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
t-
4
4
4
O
4
4
4
0
4
4
O
-
1
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4'
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
h
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
H
4
4
-H
4
-\-
4
4
H
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
- (
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
- 1
-
4
4
f
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
V
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
-1-
4
_
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
-
4
-
-
4
h
-(
0
4
'f
85
4
4
4
til
.
£
4
-
4
4
4
4
-
O
4
4
4
0
4
4
*..*..........
0
4
1965
0.
1
4
4
+
c=
a.
4
-
4
4
4
4
4
;...
64
4 -
4
4
4
1964
H-
4-
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
'1
-f
4
4-
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite . . . '.
Office and business equipment
I!
§
4
9-month spans
1965
0.
~
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS^
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publ ishing
^
Chemicals
4
4
1-month spans
1964
1 I
4
4
4
i1
4
. 4
4
4
CJ
CD
O
4
0
O
<
=
TO
4
4-
c
Q.
4
4
4
O
4
4
4
4
0
u
55
o
4
4
4
si
4
4
4
0
4
0
T
»
i%
4
4
4
5-
f
4
4
=3
4
4
Tobacco products-and bottled beverages
Cotton products
=>,
0
-
4
o.
i
c:
4
-
4
*-
4
4
4
H
4
4
4
4
4
Hh
4
4
4
4
4
Hh
4
4
4
4
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
x
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table
J
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
JULY 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1964
1965
1964
1965
Diffusion index title and components
S " " o o
a
)
r a " S ^ Q - r a *
=
f S 1 1 If i f f 1
05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
53
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (Ifi)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Pater son (21 )
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (K\
providence (23)
North Central region:
Chicago (3)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (25)
Kansas City (22)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (9)
South region:
Atlanta (20)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (17)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (2)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (19)
34
---+
+
—
4
+
-
62
60
51
89
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
—
+
—
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
_
+
32
83
+
+
+
+
+
- -+
—
+
+
+
_
+
_
—
—
—
+
+
+
—
+
—
+
24
_
57
4
-
66
+
74
+ +
-+ +
72
+
+
+
+
+
+ 4 -
+
+
-
+
4,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
_
+
-
_
_
—
+
4
+
-
4
+
+
....
...»
_
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
—
+
—
—
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
—
—
—
+
+
+
+
,
+
—
+
+
+
---
=
+
+
—
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
79
+
+
+
+
79
-
+
4
+
+
+
70
—
+
_
+ +
--
62
+
+
-
89
—
+
4
62
+
+
_
61
+
+
+
+
-
+
4-
4.
+
+
4.
_
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
0
+
+
—
+
—
4 - 4 -
_
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
_
_
4-
—
4-
_
4-
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
—
+
4-
-
+
+
+
+
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and fails when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census "before the direction of change is determined. (Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. -The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared wiffi expansions in
earlier business cycles
SPECIFIC CYCLES
Current expansions in selected series compared with earlier
expansions in ffiese series
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels
57
CHART
JULY 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
I I I I 1 I 1 I I I I IHI I I I I I II I M I I I I | I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948to Apr. 1954 (Referencetrough: Oct. 1949)
-•
Reference trough dates
July 1953to Feb. 1959 (Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957to Oct. 1962 (Referencetrough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
23. Industrial
-i 110
materials prices
17. Ratio, price
130
to unit labor
120
cost, mfg.
110
100*
90
*w
24. New orders, mack
80
70
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100*
90
-12 -6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
In a given distance; scale 1-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level. *>Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
58
CHART
bed
JULY 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
i Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Feb. 1959 (Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
43. Unemployment rate, total
115
(percent unemployed, inverted)
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
J,
Percent
49. GNP in current dollars
135
130
125
120
CM
115 ^
no
105
100*
95
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-Z is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. '-Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
c
CHART
JULY 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Percent
—Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
Reference trough dates
July 1953to Feb. 1959 (Referencetrough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Oct. 1962 (Reference trough: Apr, 1958)
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
62. Labor cost
115
per unit of output, mfg.
• Reference trough dates
110
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
140
130
105 -*
120
8
110 2
100*
100*^
90
J
95
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
140
135
67. Bank rates on
140
short-term business loans
135
130
130
125
125
120
120
115 .
115 ^
110 •;
no £
a»
105
105
'—--0-———--"
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
100*
100*
95
95
90
90
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. * Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level. * Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
60
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY 1965
CHART
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of1949
1958
1954
1961
-Specific trough dates
23. Industrial
Percent
200
190
180
materials prices
-Specific trough dates
170
160
17. Ratio, price to
2
150
unit labor cost, mfg.
I
140
<0
130
120
110
110
100*
105
24. New orders,mach.
and equip, indus.
100"
210
200
190
180
170
160
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100*
19. Stock prices,
500 common stocks
0
+6
+ 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
0
+6
+12+18+24
+30
+36
+42 +48
+54 +60
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Specific trough level.
61
CHART
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY
1965
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Specific trough dates
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-
1949
1954
1958
1961
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M f i n n i H I M i I J M I rrrn n n f i m i M.M i r
**
Percent
Specific trough dates
-i 120
43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent unemployed, inverted)'
115
41. Employees In nonagri.
establishments
SJJ
110 -^
105
J 100*
Percent
150
145
140
47. Industrial production
135
0
+6
150
145
140
49,
GNP in current dollars
135
130
130
125 *««
125 2
120 1o
120 |
115
115
110
110
105
105
100*
100*
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +-48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8. Various
scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
^Specific trough level.
x
Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of specific trough levels.
62
bed
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY 1965
CHART
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLES—Continued
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Comparisons cover a 60-month period beginning
with specific trough dates corresponding to
the reference troughs of-
-
1949
.1954
1958
1961
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 rn I TIT 1 1 n 1 1 > 11 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 n i I T
-*
-(Specific trough dates
n 125
Percent
Specific trough dates
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
62. Labor cost per
unit of output, mfg.
160
120
115
150
140
110
130
120
110
105
100"
100*
64. Book value of
mfrs.' inventories
150
145
140
0
+6
+12 +11 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
67. Bank rates on short-term
140
business loans
135
135
130
130
125 <
125
120 !
120
115
115
110
110
105
105
100*
100*
0
+6
+12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from specific troughs
See appendix B for specific dates. Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 8.
scales are used. Scale L-1 is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Various
^Specific trough level. ^Latest data anticipated.
63
TABLE
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
JULY
1965
bed
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
52d
51st
51st
52d
102.5
105.4
169.0
134.5
101.0
114.5
88.9
119.4
98.0
80.1
75.4
120.4
99.7
73.4
63.2
128.1
108.8
200.0
225.9
252.5
72.3
46.3
72.7
76.2
73.5
38.9
43. &
22.6
96.8
38.8
49.2
123.6
(NA)
46.4
17.5
217.4
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
52d
120.3
129.1
118.4
118.0
167.8
59.3
17.0
133.5
242.3
51st
51st
52d
142.4
104.4
66.7
115.6
130.0
39.9
109.9
172.1
57.3
108.5
117.5
65.4
428.3
43.7
195.0
54.1
65.8
(NA)
17.6
96.5
42.5
129.3
113.0
107.7
52.4
87.1
22.0
Ifi. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
48th
52d
52d
52d
52d
52d
161.9
105.3
154.0
110.8
136.5
118.4
110.2
100.6
120.6
91.0
115.9
121.8
97.4
100.8
220.2
104.2
127.1
115.2
73.3
93.8
170.2
75.0
132.2
116.6
195.3
(NA)
57.4
109.0
(NA)
(NA)
66.2
(NA)
55.0
96.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
63.4
44.7
(NA)
(NA)
107.7
(NA)
266.0
80.6
(NA)
(NA)
102.0
(NA)
138. 8
73. S
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 3..
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) . .
47. Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
52d
52d
52d
51st
110.9
+0.5
129.1
130.5
105.0
-1.5
116.4
124.7
103.2
-3.6
106.9
124.9
109,3
-1.4
124.4
135.4
129.3
(NA)
176.8
176.0
96.3
-11.0
105.8
87.6
68.4
(NA)
64.2
69.9
97.3
(NA)
115.4
123.9
87.7
(NA)
115.1
(NA)
50 GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
51st
52d
52d
52d
121.4
155.2
130.2
127.2
116.4
136.6
125.0
117.1
110.8
140.4
127.2
124.9
121.2
148.0
134.3
126.0
(NA)
158.1
177.6
129.0
102.3
68.0
87.2
96.4
90.6
59.8
72.3
70.3
125.7
139.9
120.6
111.8
(NA)
110.6
(NA)
112.5
52d
101.3
101.2
110.2
108.5
110.5
94.5
72.0
86.4
66.8
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated 4
48th
57th
135.0
143.5
97.9
97.9
115.7
105-4
128.2
120.6
(NA)
(NA)
73.6
78.7
36.9
20.9
108.1
128.2
55.6
68.1
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
64. Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
52d
51st
51st
51st
97.1
118.4
151.6
93.3
101.0
108. 8
138.0
103.3
109.6
111.9
150.4
120.6
116.6
152.1
265.7
140.9
91.7
107.7
128.3
53.9
80.3
(NA)
(NA)
101.0
85.9
(NA)
(NA)
103.6
74.4
(NA)
(NA)
82.8
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
128.3
158.4
96.7
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1,17,19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage
base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9,13,14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DKVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
*Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries.
64
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough !
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning inFeb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
52d
+4.1
+4.4
+0.3
+0.5
51st
51st
-2.5
+11.4
+14.0
+34.4
-17.3
+13.1
+97.0
+296.6
-25.2
-46.8
-38.3
-77.4
+80.8
+58.7
+10.4
+303.9
+47/8
+24.7
+123.9
+355.6
+320.0
+7.2
+5.9
+7.4
52d
+92.9
+43.7
+26.0
+54.0
+35.3
52d
+20.2
+33.0
+1.1
-15.8
+78.7
+292.5
-83.6
+34.8
+147.5
51st
51st
+52.8
+12.4
-31.8
+47.1
+36.1
-46.9
+13.4
+45.8
-39.9
+25.7
+12.4
-44.3
(NA)
+351.9
-17.0
.(NA)
-79.8
-49.2
+165.1
+86.2
+52.6
+19.5
+92.2
+20.4
+30.3
+87.7
+45.6
+14.4
+7.4
+6.3
+2.6
-6.3
-5.0
+36.8
+16.1
+44.0
+22.1
+38.2
+74.1
+63.8
(NA)
(NA)
-8.7
+4.8
+4.2
-0.1
+61.1
+31.3
+19.7
+36.5
+50.8
-27.2
(NA)
(NA)
+13.0
+9.3
+1.7
+6.9
-0.1
+15.2
+44.2
+2.2
+2.7
(NA)
+37.0
+31.2
+35.5
+27.9
+17.6
+27.2
+35.9
+40.1
+158,8
+99.9
52d
52d
52d
+23.6
+51.6
+29.0
+29.7
+21.0
+41.0
+25.4
+19.0
+14.2
+38.2
+27.5
+25.8
+23.0
+54.1
+40.4
+25.9
52d
+1.4
+1.7
+11.1
+44.8
+53.9
+21.9
+21.9
+10.3
+21.1
52d
-4.9
51st
51st
51st
+19.7
+46.7
'-4.9
+12.9
+36.8
+19.7
+19.8
+45.4
+26.4
52d
48th
52d
52d
52d
52d
52d
-3.7
-5.7
(MA)
(NA)
+166.0
+132.9
-7.1
-53.8
(NA)
(NA)
+100.0
-51.6
-54.1
+155.4
(NA)
(NA)
+208.0
(NA)
(NA)
+87.7
+76.4
(NA)
(NA)
-3.9
(NA)
(NA)
+40.8
+14.4
+119.3
+73.9
-28.7
+12.0
-31.8
-30.3
+40.5
• +26.8
+68.6
+42.1
+89.3
+99.4
+58.2
+42.1
+78.4
+77.2
+83.1
-11.4
-45.0
-28.3
-29.7
+26.1
+44.4
+20.5
+11.8
+39.7
+42.6
+45.0
+20.0
+14.3
+17.0
+30.4
-22.6
-5.3
+5.6
+60.2
+ 50.7
(NA)
(NA)
+329.1
+359.0
-58.0
-76.2
+54.9
+83.8
+61.9
+98.3
+23.6
+67.3
+25.0
+81.8
+168.4
-30.8
-18.5
-61.4
-17.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+18.1
-23.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT- INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri cultural establishments 3. .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
52d
52d
52d
50 GNP in 1954dollars(Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N.Y
52 Personal income*
54 Sales of retai 1 stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
51st
51st
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+27.3
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b. Anticipated 4
;
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66 Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . -
48th
57th
+0.4
+7.3
+21.2
+62.9
+112.2
+40.4
+3.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+4.9
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66)f the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used asthe base. See MCD footnote to appendixC. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels .
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
used for all other entries .
65
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
MLY
,965
COMPARISONS FROM SPECIFIC PEAK AND TROUGH LEVELS AND SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES
Month
after
specific
trough !
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing . .
(NA)
57.9
88.6
(NA)
(NA)
#100.0
#110.5
(NA)
(NSC)
#76.6
(NA)
(NA)
»97.8
#106.8
(NA)
201.7
#100.8
(NA)
(NA)
123.8
#105.6
(NA)
#116.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
#96.6
(NSC)
96.3
(NA)
99.0
87.6
100.9
#89.4
95.2
(NA)
#108.2
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
129.5
(NA)
61.9
(NA) . 79.7
(NSC)
127.9
98.5
141.3
(NA)
#82.9
#118.6
#118.6
(NSC)
(NA)
#119.7
#108.1
#108.1
(NSC)
(NA)
#91.0
101.0
97.3
102.4
142.4
108.9
134.0
91.6
*99.8
(NSC)
*90.3
*186.3
*65.1
*106.2
*90.4
(NSC)
73.3
*107.2
*155.6
*135.1
*211 .6
*158.1
105.4
41.4
(NA)
52.6
104.7
24 New orders machinery and equipment industries
.
29 New building permits private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 Employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 2 .........
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50 GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction .
54 Sales of retail stores
54th
52d
52d
56th
54th
55th
54th
52d
49th
52d
51st
51st
54th
50th
110.5 *102.7 *105.4
+0.2
*-1.2
*-!.!
127.0 *109.0 *109.2
130.5 nl2.4 *121.6
121.4 •*107.6 mo.i
125.3 *108.3 *116.1
125.5 no9.4 *117.7
nn. 7
*135.1
*138.7
#125.5
#147.3
128.6
(NA)
171.4
167.6
(NA)
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated3.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
64 Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
45th
54th
42d
47th
42d
*96.2 *131.0
*96.2 *131.0
*97.2 *11Q.9
*104.2 *117.2
#110.5 *129.0
#129.5
#115.6
#151.0
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost index
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks •
«•
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing. .
13 New business incorporations
17 Ratio, price to unit labor cost index
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
... .
24 New orders machinery and equipment industries , .'
29 New building permits, private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in rronagrlcultural establishments 2
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50 GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction .
54 Sales of retail stores
135.0
. 143.5
95.1
117.8
93.1
*99.0
*138.1
nOl.O
*122.5
*92.9
*99.2
*96.5
*+1.0
136.5
(NA)
(NA)
233.9
75.8
#70.4
(NA)
#86.3
(NA)
#99.2
#71.3
(NA)
(NA)
#91.3
(NA)
#112,3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
108.8
#62.5
#62.5
#74.8
(NA)
#81.0
Percent change from specific trough corresponding to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
54th
52d
52d
56th
54th
55th
54th
+7.0
+13.9
+7.4
+5B.3
+19.1
+45.0
+22.9
*+5.2
*+51.7
*+9.4
*+48.1
*+17.4
*+36.7
*+56.3
52d
49th
52d
51st
51st
54th
50th
+13.0
+2.4
+37.0
+31.2
+23.6
+31.4
+30.8
*+7.3
*+9.1
*+2.6
*+2.4
*+27.2 *+21.3
*+l6.4 *+24.9
*+12.5 *+U.3
*+17.6 *+25.6
*+13.7 *+23.7
45th
54th
42d
47th
42d
+46.3
+55.5
-1.0
+20.4
+0.6
*+22.6 *+4.7.2 +61.8
*+22.6 *+47.2 #+61.8
*+4.9 *+17.4 #+24.2
*+10.8 *+26.6 *+70.0
*+28.5 *+37.0 +43.8
+26.3
+12.0
#+4.5
#+20.5
(NA)
(NSC)
#+7.3
(NA)
(NA)
#+7.9
#+42.9
(NA)
+136.9
#+36.7
(NA)
(NA)
#+17.8 +44.2 +40.8 H11.5
(NA)
(NA)
#+5.3
+14.1
#+50.0 +153.5 +112.3 #+24.9
(NSC)
#+43.8 +99.9
+73.9
(NSC)
(NA)
+49.8
*+28.6
(NA)
#+68.5 +219.9 #+151.4
(NSC)
(NSC)
+53.3 +85.6
#+12.0
(NA)
#+31.7
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
#+6.5
*+4.3
(NSC)
+23.9
*+6.8 #+15.2
*H09.6 #+87.4
^+24.7 #+100.3
*+89.9 #+180.1
*+54.9 #+123.8
-48.2 #+12.8
(NA)
(NA)
-3.7 +279.7
+61.9
+138.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
#+15.4
#+23.6
(NA)
#+46.2
#+75.0
(NA)
(NA)
#+32.6
(NA)
#+66.1
+62.3
(NA)
(NA)
+27,6
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
6L Business expenditures, newplantand equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated 3
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67 Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q)
(NA)
(NA)
+276.9
+385.5
+59.2 +30.8
+77.2 +74.7
(NA) #+11.4
#+41.2
#+41.2
(NSC)
(NA)
#+26.6
#+54.9
#+54.9
(NSC)
(NA)
#+7.3
#+102.9
#+102.9
#+22.2
(NA)
#+6.0
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23r 41, 43 47, 53, 54, 62, and 64), the value for the month indicated
in the 1st column (month after specific trough) is divided by the value for the specific peak or trough month. Similarly, the specific peak or trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 49. 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the
specific peak or trough month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available. NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date. 'Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the month indicated in the 1st column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak, and the period covered is shorter than that of the
current expansion. See appendix B for specific peak dates.
1
Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough to the
latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by an asterisk (*).
Percent measures for shorter time spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Specific trough dates
are shown in appendix B.
Measures are differences from the specific peak or trough levels.
Anticipated expenditures
(4-th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are used for all
other entries.
66
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Trough
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865 . .
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882 ... .
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(x)
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899 . .
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43'
13
8
11
'27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
' 32
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
*49
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
6
2
4
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
67
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES' FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1 . Average workweek, production workers , n£ g . .Dec.
.
9. Construction contracts , commercial and
May
industrial
Jan.
13 New business incorporations . .
Feb.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks . . ,
Dec.
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus... Nov.
Dec.
29. New building permits, private housing
'60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
(NSC)
(NSC)
Dec, '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Aug.
Feb.
May
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June ' 24July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
IstQ '61
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61
May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Sep.
'58 Apr.
'58 2ndQ
'58 2ndQ
'58 Mar.
'58 Aug.
'58 Jan.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
Oct. '49 June
Oct. !49 June
Oct. '49 May
2ndQ '49 2ndQ
2ndQ '49 IstQ
Oct. '49 May
Oct. '49 June
(NSC) May
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ '61
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Dec. 1'61
June 61
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ '61
3rdQ
May
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments,
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in raining, rafg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
'49
'50
'50
'50
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING 'INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks.
23 . Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'53
Mar.
Feb.
Dec.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. »51 Jan.
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
2ndQ '60
(NSC)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction.. May '60
54. Sales of retail stores
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
July
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48
Jan, <48
July '48
4thQ '48
4thQ '48
Oct. '48
Sep. '48
(NSC)
July !37
July '37
May '37
3rdQ '37
3rdQ '37
June '37
May '37
Sep. '37
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57
'58
'57
'57
3rdQ
Jan.
Sep.
4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
'46 July '37
'46 Dec. '36
(NA)
'48
'48 Feb. '37
'48 Mar. '37
(NA)
'48
'47
(NA)
Jan. '29 Sep. '25
Jan. '29 Oct. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '29
Mar. '29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Apr. '23 Dee. '19
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 July '19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
43.
47.
49.
Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Industrial production.
,...,..
GNP in current dollars (Q)
Aug. '29 Jan. !26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . Feb.
64. Book value of manufacturers ' inventories
Sep.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q), 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48
'49
'49
'49
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
68
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
i/c
CI
Monthly series
I
C
i/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER" LEADING INDICATORS
0.42
4.52
1.29
8.52
17.12
0.21
1.63
1.18
3,88
3.99
2.00
2.77
1.09
2.20
4.29
2
3
2
3
5
0.95
.91
.59
.70
.89
2.15
2.17
2.27
2.17
1.63
1.65
1.74
1.63
1.74
1.44
10.58
9.93
9.77
8.18
6.35
4.06
4.42
5.25
5,96
3.08
4.62
3.25
2.49
1.61
1.86
2.02
2
3
.86
.59
1.72
1.67
1.51
1.54
9.77
8.33
3.94
4.56
4.01
4.47
9.43
9.66
4.61
4.93
7.31
7.34
3.39
3.82
.78
1.00
2.36
2.68
16.86 16.36
13.09 12.81
1.61
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
.65
1.10
2.52
2.11
2.49
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
1.19
2.15
6.49
6.07
3
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
.84
C1)
.82
C1)
.68
.66
.77
C1)
t1)
1.76
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.50
2.10
1.48
1.53
1.51
1.54
1.59
1.53
1.53
1.60
1.70
1.32
1.37
12.50
6,63
10.75
6.13
14.38
14.60
6.30
5.77
9.77
3.62
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
4.90
3.02
2.26
5.30
.69
2.65
.56
1.86
.33
1.67
1.70
1.11
2
2
.94
.68
2.23
2.35
1.74
1.67
7.47
12.70
3.60
3.94
6.81
5.29
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
5.81
5.32
2.14
2,49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70
3.91
7.68
1.32
5.54
1.04
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95.
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4.06
4-1 Employ*^?! TTI nOTiagT*imil't'UT*al psf.abj i sl'xmerrfcs , T , , T T t t . , t .30
.36
3.94
.5.63
, ,T . .
4.82
3.11
,.15
.29
3.08
4.16
2.56
1.88
.24
.19
2.29
2.74
3.56
2.35
.63
1.53
1.34
1.52
.72
.80
1
2
2
2
1
1
.63
.79
.71
.86
.72
.80
5.15
1.96
2.75
2.88
3.74
3.47
1.96
1.54
1.79
1.89
2.12
1.60
15.44
15.89
11.00
11.00
9.07
9.62
5.15
3.64
3.84
4.80
3.74
3.47
47 Tndustri-^l produ^ti^n. .. .... ........ ............ 1.09
51 Bank debits> all SMSA's except New York
1.48
.49
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, construction... .81
.78
54. Sales of retail stores
55 Wholesale prices except farm products and foods ...... .17
.58
1.44
.27
.53
.63
.4.0
.79
.60
.41
.61
.44
'.13
.73
2.40
.66
.87
1.43
.77
1
3
1
1
2
1
.73
.54
.66
.87
.85
.77
3.53
1.69
3.43
3.43
2.53
3.53
2.05
9.77
1.53 18.14
1.84 18.14
1.90 11.55
1.80
9.54
2.65 11.55
3.53
4.31
3.43
3.43
3.62
3.53
.65
.54
.48
.19
.36
.49
1.33
.39
2
1
.72
.39
2.27
8.33
1.55
2.02
9.07
13.89
4.34
8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
1.42
2.29
15.63
5.17
18.00 11.45
3.73 3.57
4.02
4.10
90 Defense Department obligations, procurement. .......... 26.87 26.37
91. Defense Department obligations, total
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21
92 Military contract awards in U.S
.61
.74
4.09
2.70
6.12
5.85
5.43
6.45
5.47
4.28
6
6
6
6
6
(
1
C^
)
C11)
C1)
1.45
1.59
1.51
1.47
1.58
1.38
1.43
1.46
1.43
1.47
9.15
8.50
5.93
6.61
5.95
2.53
3.26
2.27
2.48
2.86
23.00 23.02
7.33 5.69
1.39
1.80
1.50
1.68
2.57 2.17
.27
.58
3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52
6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1)
.81
.95
.93
.86
.52
1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13
1.45
2.00
2.13
1.79
1.90
2.63
5.56
9.71
10.46
8.67
8.56
17.13
2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13
1. Average workweek of production workers, manuf acturing . 0.49
4.80
2 . Access ion rate , manufacturing
30, Nonagricultural placements, all industries
1.82
9.35
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
17.76
4 . Temporary layoff , all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
5.29
3.79
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries. .......
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
29* New building permits, private housing
38. Index of net business formation
13 . New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy production materials, commitments 60
days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23. Industrial materials prices
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
42 . Total nonagricultural employment
43 Unemployment rate total
.
40 Unemployment rate, married males
45 Avp-rage weekly insTirpd unemployment
46 Help-wanted advertising
State. ,, t t T
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
64 Book value of manufacturers ' inventories
..........
65 . Book value of manufacturers ' inventories of finished
66 Consumer installment debt
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82 Federal cash payments to public
99 New orders, defense products
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116 . Corporate bond yields
117 Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields
C)
9 footnotes at end of table.
69
Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage! Changes-Continued
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
i/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER U.S, SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE—Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 . General imports
81 . Consumer prices
94, Construction contracts , value
96 . Unfilled orders , durable goods industries
2.75
2.97
6.00
3.59
5.95
4.59
3.61
.15
7.03
1.51
4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57
1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34
3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.43
4
4
1
5
1
0.96
.85
.77
.84
.43
1.77
1.59
6.00
1.52
5.95
1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87
7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89
.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.52
.47
.50
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91
2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52
15.63 8.27
8.93
5.59
31.25 7.75
18.00
5.43
25.00 11.27
31.00 6.42
17.86 2.91
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123 . Canada
122 . United Kingdom
121 . OECD European countries
125 . Vest Germany.
126. France
,
127. Italy
128. Japan
,
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
T/c
QCD
T/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11,
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all
industries
11.35
6.28
6.76
7.11
4.03
4.80
7.31
4.71
4.17
0.97
.86
1.15
1
1
2
0.97
.86
.56
2.42
2.47
2.47
1.48
1.35
1.40
5.11
5.25
5.25
2.42
2.47
2.73
5.10
3.76
3.78
.99
1
.99
3.23
1.40
5.25
3.23
1.29
1.54
1.30
.49
.50
.38
1.07
1.33
1.20
.46
.38
.31
1
1
1
.46
.38
.31
3.82
4.67
6.00
1.45
1.35
1.45
4.67
6.00
8.40
3.82
4.67
6.00
3.15
.90
2.31
1.26
.49
1.57
2.64
.72
2.00
.48
.68
.79
1
1
1
.48
.68
.79
4.67
3.15
2.47
1.83
1.41
1.56
4.67
5.86
4.67
4.67
3.15
2,47
11.61
4.32
6.57
8.33
2.86
1.47
7.58
2.90
6.15
1.10
.99
.24
2
1
1
.43
.99
.24
2.59
2.30
3.21
1.33
1.48
1.61
4.00
4.60
7.50
4.30
2.30
3.21
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sales
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross s avings
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years. Figures for series 7, 86, 87, and 116
are based on shorter periods.
^Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the_
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. t]Cn is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shlskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
"CIM, is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally
70
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
"become dominated "by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MOD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MOD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.67 for the series on new
orders, durable goods industries (series 6). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the. seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.54 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 to 5 months. The increase in the
ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical-trend
movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERlES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
i/c
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.50
0.85
3.37
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies
1.45
. . do .
1.52
.37
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. Bil. dol...
.49
.16
.46
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Ann. rate,
4.31
bil. dol.. 4.39
.82
93 . Free reserves
Mil. dol... 104.23 82.19 52.77
85 . Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
2.81
percent. . . 2.78
.42
do
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
2.52 2.52
.48
112. Change in business loans
-Ann . rate ,
bil. dol.. 1.22
1.19
.26
do
113. Change in consumer installment debt
.85
.75
.34
88. Merchandise trade balance
Mil. dol... 58.96 56.60 17.50
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
i/c
MCD1
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
3.96
4
0.94
1.47
1.44
7.94
3.22
3.93
2.93
5
4
.92
.79
1.64
1.79
1.46
1.58
6.05
7.44
3.15
3.45
5.27
1.56
5
2
,91
.95
1.51
2.03
1.40
1.52
7.00
10.31
2.61
3.17
6.75
5.29
11
7
.82
.97
1.45
1.51
1.48
1.45
6.18
6.80
3.32
2.60
4.51
2.19
3.23
5
3
3
.93
.78
.93
1.47
1.71
1.82
1.47
1.55
1.61
6.22
9.00
11.30
2.48
3.24
2.64
i/c
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
1.55
1.47
1.24
4.80
5.22
3.13
2.29
2.61
2.71
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
, Ann. rate,
1.25
bil. dol.. 1.78
1.04
do
95. Balance, Fed. income and product account.
1.10
1.52
2.12
89. U.S. balance of payments
Mil. dol. .. 266.91 222.40 125.72
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years. Figures for series 88 and 112 are based
on shorter periods.
1
Where MCD is larger than "6", a 6-term moving average is
used as the MCD curve.
The measures in the above table are computed "by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-
.83
.72
1.77
1
1
2
.83
.72
.77
2.29
2.61
1.68
to-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is_ expressed in
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component,which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
71
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOV. 1964 TO DEC, 1965)
1<?65
19<54
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance ..............
13. New business incorporations1
14 . Liabilities of bus iness failures
15 . Large business failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
IS. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
Nov.
Dec.
89.0
94.6
Defense Dept. oblig., procurement....
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Military contract awards in U.S
Change in bu«ineap lewis3* A i i
Japan, industrial production index...
Mar. Apr. May
157.0 105.5 91.6
87.4
77.6
June July Aug. Sept, Oct.
Nov. Dec.
73.8 107.2 140.3 86.9
89.9
90.4
94.6
104.5 137.4 144.9 107.2 92.7 91.8 82 3 83 8 105.3 83.9 77 4 88.6 104.5 137.4
82.4 101.8 105.2 91.9 115.6 107.3 103.1 105.8 102.6 95.0 93.1 94.9 82.4 101.8
107.5 77.7 105.6 104.1 100.2 104.7 95.7 106.6 100.7 104.7 96.7 95.8 107.6 77.7
94,8 86.0 112.9 114.1 112.0 113.3 99.5 102.3 86.3 95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0
101.1 97.8
98.1 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.7 96.4 99.1 101.9 103.1 101.1
101.4
101.4
96.9
106.3
95.2
92.5 83*.6 aoii 76.9 93*.l 104 ".4 108.2 lll'.l 102 [4 113.8
Il6! 6 94.4
122! 6
93.1
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
100.0
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg... 99.0
81 . Consumer prices
100.1
82. Federal cash payments to public1
99.8
83. Federal cash receipts. .from public1... 101.8
90.
91.
92.
112.
128.
Jan. Feb.
96.0
91.5
79 4
101.2
99.2
95.1
104.9 108.6 108.2 113.4 107.1
99.0
94.8
92.9
86.0
97.8
83*. 6
92.7 90.2
93.0
95.1
100.1
102.4
99.9
105.8
107.9
100.1 100.2 100.0 99.9
102.4 102.3 100.5 99.8
99.9
99.9 99.9 99.9
103.1 89.6 94.4 97.6
107.8
67.7 113.0 126.8
99.9
99.3
99.8
100.4
81.2
100.0
98.9
99 7
98.4
117.5
99.9 99.9 99.9 99.8
98.0 103.8 100.9 98.3
99.9 100.2 100.0 100 1
104.0 97.0 114.2 96.9
152.3 49.1 114.4 124.9
100.0
97.3
100.1
101.9
45.4
100.0
99.0
100.1
101.4
101.6
93.3 86.3 97.5
92.8 88.6
91.8
92 1 100 6 88 9
102.0 100.6 99.7
102 ;1 94.0 102.1
87.9
95.8
84.7
100.3
99.5
83.9
88.6
90 2
100 0
100.1
197.9
143.1
171 9
99 6
99.8
98.4
106.3
101 1
99 9
99.6
96.0
93.3
91.8
91.5
79 4 92 1
101.3 102 0
99.2 102.1
78.6
96.3
125 1
100.3
108.1
103.4
115.2
72 8
98 9
100.0
80.1
92.4
88 4
98 5
96.4
99.7
99.7
103 9
99 3
99.5
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
^•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined
factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
72
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions :
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July
1923-July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937- June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
j . . . * -10.4
Feb. 1945 -Oct. 19454
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug. 19545
July 1957 -Apr. 1953
May 1960-Feb. 1961..
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP 51. Bank 52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail Change
of indus- in 1954 in cur- debits, sonal
stores
income
trial
dollars rent
in rate, Rate at
all
dollars SMSA's
producpeak
peak to
(Q)1
tion
trough
except
(Q)1
New York
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May
1924-Oct.
1927-Aug.
19334yiay
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454
Oct. 1945-Nov. 1948
.
Oct. 1949-July 19535
Aug. 1954-JuIy 1957
Apr. 1958-May 1960
Median: 6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
..
4 expansions since 1945...
2
+7.9
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.4
-3.0
-3,8
-1.8
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.5
-1.0
^-.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+1.0
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7
>5:5
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
-5.6
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-1.2
+3.4
3.5
7.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2.3
-2.4
-2.9
-2.2
-3.6
-0.8
-2,3
-0.2
-1.8
-1.2
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.2
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
43. Unemployment rate, total
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
0.0
11.2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
47. Index 50. GNP 49. GNP
of indus- in 1954 in curtrial
dollars rent
dollars
produc(Q)1
tion
(Q)1
4.0
2
3.2
2
1.9
3
51. Bank 52. Per- 54 Sales
debits, sonal
of retail Change
in rate, Rate at
all
stores
income
trough
trough
.SMSA's
to peak
except
:
t New York
2
-8.7
2
-3.6
2
2
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
2
1.9
23
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.3
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.6
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.5
+12.7
+21.4
+29.4
+24.4
+39.0
+21.6
+25.6
+14.7
+23.2
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year,
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
'^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
73
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1,196
1,785
1,561
1,324
1,475
1,383
1,730
1,218
1,824
1,900
1,330
1,476
1,343
1,807
1,431
1,184
1,146
1,598
1,531
1,037
1,336
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (Annual rate, thousands) x
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1,385
1,196
1,883
1,928
1,388
1,484
1,358
1,757
1,441
1,151
1,170
1,562
1,444
1,266
1,200
1,137
1,834
1,638
1,516
1,460
1,417
1,664
1,444
1,168
1,107
1,512
1,508
1,217
1,379
1,171
1,976
1,481
1,483
1,506
1,411
1,684
1,401
1,173
1,108
1,561
1,107
1,270
1,501
1,292
1,945
1,352
1,412
1,498
1,433
1,708
1,408
1,147
1,154
1,578
1,267
1,136
1,450
1,319
2,052
1,359
1,408
1,425
1,412
1,730
1,375
1,174
1,191
1,481
1,271
1,223
1,441
1,341
2,042
1,419
1,353
1,380
1,498
1,704
1,325
1,175
1,236
1,498
1,213
1,333
1,419
1,384
2,051
1,257
1,438
1,346
1,559
1,632
1,289
1,191
1,337
1,525
1,195
1,304
1,329
1,500
2,121
1,334
1,443
1,324
1,563
1,625
1,313
1,193
1,374
1,395
1,365
1,315
1,303
1,603
1,821
1,456
1,483
1,348
1,618
1,580
1,234
1,191
1,451
1,567
1,084
1,425
1,190
1,662
1,605
1,386
1,513
1,342
1,610
1,490
1,266
1,204
1,472
1,332
1,144
1,309
1,434
1,212
1,162
1,593
1,344
1,251
1,377
89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U. S. balance of payments (Mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951........
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
-396
-843
+292
-529
-312
-90
-407
+511
-609
-951
-857
-537
...
...
-741
-137
-183
-524
-249
-388
-143
-14
-927
-1,062
-703
+188
...
...
-1,623
+355
-750
-695
-554
-333
-322
+452
-902
-1,191
-1,076
-760
...
...
-842
+282
-451
-354
-401
-338
-96
-481
-1,039
-539
-1,245
-1,261
...
1
For the period since January 1959, data are not entirely comparable with those for,the period prior to 1959. Annual levels
for the earlier years have been substantially revised to make them comparable with those for the later years. Month-to-month
movements for the earlier period, however, were not similarly revised but were superimposed on the new annual levels in accordance with the monthly pattern of the old series. An explanation of the revision of the annual data is given in the Bureau of the
Census report, Housing Starts in May 1964 (Construction Reports: Housing Starts, C20-60). The figures shown in that source are
limited to annual aggregates. The monthly data have been prepared by the Business and Defense Services Administration, U. S.
Department of Commerce. (See June 1964 issue of Construction Review.)
INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Series
number1
F
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
Page
14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11
30
31
32
37
38
10
14
14
14
12
40
41
42
43
45
46
47
49
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
50
51
52
53
54
55
57
58
16
17
17
17
17
17
16
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
59
56
59
56
56
59
59
••
57
60
57
60
57
57
60
60
58
58
58
61
61
61
58
61
27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25
24
27
27
27
25
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
tototototototo
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29
56
totototototototo
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
tototototo
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
totototototototo
11
n
11
11
ii
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
tototototototototo
10
10
10
10
10
totototototototo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
••
••
••
••
••
-•
••
••
••
66
••
64
64
65
65
66
••
64
65
66
••
••
65
65
65
••
68
66
65
65
..
••
64
64
64
65
65
65
64
64
••
••
64
64
64
••
••
••
--
68
63
68
68
64
64
65
65
66
66
..
68
68
64
65
66
••
68
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
69
69
69
70
69
70
69
••
••
64
65
66
••
68
••
••
••
64
65
66
••
68
64
64
65
65
66
66
68
68
64
64
64
65'
65
65
66
68
••
••
••
••
••
••
-
66
66
••
63
68
68
64
64
65
65
64
64
64
65
65
65
66
66
66
••
68
68
68
64
64
65
65
66
••
68
*•
72
72
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
69
70
70
69
69
69
69
70
70
73
73
72
72
71
71
70
69
69
71
69
69
69
71
69
69
••
72
72
72
72
72
G
E
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
72
72
•*
Issue
68
68
68
*66
*66
65
74
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
July
May
July
'64
'64
'64
'63
' 63
'64
'65
68
*66
*66
*66
64
*68
64
66
Nov.
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
June
June
June
Apr.
'64
'63
'63
'64
' 64
'63
'64
'64
64
64
65
*66
*66
*66
65
74
June
June
June
Jan.
Dec.
Dec.
June
June
*66
65
*66
*68
74
Oct. '63
June »64
Mar. '64
June ' 63
June ' 65
72
68
72
72
*66
*66
70
68
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
69
72
69
*66
*66
69
70
66
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'64
'65
'64
'63
'63
'64
'64
'64
65
*68
66
66
70
70
66
June
June
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'64
' 63
'64
!
64
'64
'64
'64
Page
» 64
64
' 64
'64
'63
'63
'64
' 65
Issue
••
T
••
^Appendix G.
•"•See back cover for series titles and sources.
75
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Charts
Appendixes
Tables
Series
number1
F
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
A
B
C
D
G
E
Page
Issue
81
32
83
84
85...'
86
87
88
89
22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34
70
69
69
71
71
70
70
71
71
72
72
72
70
72
72
72
69
69
69
69
74
Aug.
May
May
May
Dec.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
July
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97.
98
99
19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32
69
69
69
71
70
71
70
70
71
69
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
Sept. '64
Sept. '64
Sept. '64
Oct. !64
66
66
68
69
66
Oct.
June
Nov.
Dec.
Oct.
110
111..
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
20
20
20
20
21
21
2i
21
21
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33
70
70
71
71
69
69
69
69
69
72
72
71
71
71
72
72
72
72
Mar. »65
Feb. »65
July r64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July »64
July '64
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
»64
'64
'64
'64
72
68
73
72
69
73
72
69
72
73
Mar.
Oct.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
'65
'64
'65
«65
'64
'65
'65
'64
i65
»65
69
70
70
72
70
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Oct.
Nov.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'64
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'64
'64
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
121....
23
122
23
123.
23
125
\.. 23
126
23
23
127
128
23
EL, 1 mo...
9 mo ...
D5
D6, 1 mo. . .
9 mo ...
Dll
D19, 1 mo..
9 mo. . ••
D23, 1 no..
9 mo. .
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
D34
39
D35
41
D36
/ 41
40
D41, 1 mo..
6 mo. . •• 40
40
D47, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
40
D48
41
40
D54, 1 mo. .
9 mo. .
40
D58, 1 mo.. •• 40
40
6 mo. .
D61
41
76
••
72
••
42 46-7
42 46-7'
43
56
42 46-9
42 46-9
42
43
55
43
55
43 48-9
43 48-9
••
••
43
45
45
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
Issue
»64
'65
'65
«65
'64
'64
'64
»64
'65
'64
'64
»64
'64
'64
73
73
73
73
74
74
74
74
74
•
•'•See baek cover for series titles and sources.
72
Page
•.
July
July
Ju3y
July
July
July
July
July
July
'64
'64
'64
«64
'64
'64
'64
'64
»64
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series "Q"
indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk {*)
were included in the I960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30NBERLEADINGINDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
31. Change in book value'of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-ChicagO Purchasing
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Departirtent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private n on farm dwelling units started (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
(M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)>-National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*U Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over(M).-Dun and BradStreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of tabor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor,Bureau ofLabor$tatistics;and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).--Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY C O I N C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R S
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
Ml.
Number of employees in nonogricultural establishments (M).--Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Totot nonogricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Departm ent Of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M),-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National Industrial Conference
Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross notional product in current dollars {Q).-Departmentof Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars(Q).«Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bonk debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
SMSA's) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(224
*52. Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income In mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department Of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M),Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics
7NBERUGGINGINDICATORS
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).'-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Depaftment
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments60 days or longer
(M),-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board of Governors Of the
Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1954 dollars) (pJ.-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division
'
Continued on reverse
@FedFRASER