Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1964
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SIPTEMBER 1964 Business Cycle Developments DATA THROUGH AUGUST U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Business Cycle Developments U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Luther H. Hodges, Secretary BUREAU OF THE CENSUS Richard M. Scammon, Director A. Ross Eckler, Deputy Director Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development SEPTEMBER 1964 Chief Economic Statistician JULIUS SHISKIN DATA THROUGH AUGUST This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Series ESI No. 64-9 Subscription price is $4 a year ($1 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are 40 cents. Airmail delivery in the United States is available at an additional charge of $5.25 per year. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office. See list below. Feliks Tamm—Computation of business cycle measures, Allan H. Young—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Eugene L. Rossidivito—Specifications for computer processing, Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data. Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine Censky of the Statistical Reports Division. The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources on the back cover of this report. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FIELD OFFICES Albuquerque, N. Mex. 87101 U.S. Courthouse Anchorage, Alaska 99501 Room 306 Loussac-Sogn Bldg. Atlanta, Ga. 30303 4th Fl., Home Savings Bldg. 75 Forsyth Street, N.W. 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Va. 25301 Honolulu, Hawaii 96813 3002 New Federal Office Bldg. 202 International Savings Bldg. 500 Quarrier Street 1022 Bethel Street New York, N.Y. 10001 61st FL, Empire State Bldg. 350 Fifth Avenue Santurce, P.R. 00907 Room 628, 605 Condado Ave. Cheyenne, Wyo. 82001 207 Majestic Building 16th and Capitol Avenue Philadelphia, Pa. 19107 Jefferson Building 1015 Chestnut Street Savannah, Ga. 31402 235 U.S. Courthouse and Post Office Building 125-29 Bull Street Phoenix, Ariz. 85025 New Federal Building 230 North First Avenue Seattle, Wash. 98104 809 Federal Office Bldg. 909 First Avenue Houston, Tex. 77002 5102 Federal Building 515 Rusk Avenue Jacksonville, Fla. 32202 Chicago, 111. 60604 512 Greenleaf Bldg. Room 1486, New Federal Bldg. 204 Laura St. 219 South Dearborn St. Preface This report has been prepared to bring together many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification of series in this report follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis . It is intended only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions. The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. About 30 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown. The movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted. The exact number of series included for the total and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes . Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports . A complete list of the series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this report. All the data shown are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations appear to exist. The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data for indicators are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series for business cycle studies. Electronic computers are used for many of the computations, thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 22nd of the month following the month of data. 1 New Features and Changes for This Issue A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation t o o t h e r series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows: 1. Series 17, 62, 47, and D-47 have been revised from January 1961 to December 1963, to reflect a new seasonal adjustment of the industrial production data. 2. Series 11 and D-11 have been revised to reflect the change from 602 to 1,000 in the number of manufacturing corporations included in the National Industrial Conference Board 1 s survey of newly approved capital appropriations. The new coverage begins with the second quarter 1964. The data for the period I960 through the first quarter 1964 have been adjusted to the level of the new series by the source agency. In Chart 1, the level of the old series has been adjusted to the level of the new series by the Census Bureau. 3. Series 7, New private nonf arm dwelling units started, has been revised for 1963 on the basis of more complete information. 4. Series 29, New private housing units authorized by local building permits, has been revised for the period 1962 to date to reflect a new seasonal adjustment. 5. Series 31, Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, has been revised for the period January 1963 to date because of the adoption of the 1963 survey of retail trade as the benchmark for the retail segment of this series. 6. Appendix F, includes historical data for series 47, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, and 92. The October issue of Business Cycle Developments is scheduled for release on October 22. ii Contents Page Preface New Features and Changes for This Issue i ii Descriptions and Procedures Business Cycle Series Method of Presentation Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Analytical Measures of Current Change Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns Charts How to Read Charts 1 , 2 , and 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 Basic Data Table 1.—Basic Data and Current Changes for Business Cycle Series: 4 Most Recent Months Chart 1. —Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present Table 2.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1961 to Present 6 8 22 Analytical Measures Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks .... Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present Chart 3. —Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes for 11 Major Economic Activities: January 1961 to Present Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January 1961 to Present Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components and Percent of Series Rising: July 1963 to Present 34 35 37 38 41 42 Cyclical Patterns Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change From Specific Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions 50 55 58 59 60 Technical Papers and Background Materials Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures 61 Appendixes (Standard appendixes B, C, and E are omitted from this issue) Appendix A.--Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961 Appendix D.--Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1963 to December 1964) Appendix F. - -Historical Data for Selected Series 67 68 69 Index Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes 71 iii Technical Papers and Background Materials To aid users of Business Cycle Developments, technical papers dealing -with the statistical adjustments and series used in BCD will be included in this report from time to time. The following papers have been included as part of this program: No. 1. —Summary Description of the X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (published as appendix E in the September 1963 issue). A n e w version of this program is scheduled to be released later this year. Announcement will be made at that time. No. 2.—Business Cycle Indicators — The Known and the Unknown by Julius Shiskin (published as appendix H in the September 1963 issue). This paper explains what is known about business cycle indicators, the problems of using them, and the research needed to improve their usefulness. It was presented at the 34th session of the International Statistical Institute in Ottawa, Canada, on August 24, 1963. No. 3.—Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method by Allan H. Young (published in May 1964 issue) . This paper is a summary of the technique used at the Census Bureau to adjust monthly series for variations arising from the number of trading or "working days in the month. This technique will be included in a new variant of the Census Method II seasonal-adjustment program ( X - l l ) to be released later this year. No. 4. — Eight Series on Manufacturers' Orders and Inventories: Descriptions and Procedures by John Musgrave and John Kuntz (published in July 1964 issue). This paper describes eight BCD series (6, 20, 24, 25, 64, 65, 96, and 99) which are compiled and seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census, briefly explains their typical business cycle behavior, and gives a comprehensive list of sources of such information. No. 5.—Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures by Max Shor and Allan Young (published in this issue) . A limited number of copies of these articles are available, free of charge, from the Chief Economic Statistician, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 20233. Copies for classroom use can usually be provided. iv Descriptions and Procedures Business Cycle Series Intensive research over many years has provided a record of the typical sequence of changes in economic processes during a business cycle; more specifically, a list of significant series that usually lead, those that usually move with, and those that usually lag behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. The series have been grouped, in accordance with the NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. In addition, other series are included in this report for a more complete coverage of the national economy. The series are described as follows: NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). For this reason, they are designated as "leading" series. One group of these series pertains to activities in the labor market, another to orders and contracts, and so on. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15 series are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production and retail sales. For this reason they are referred to as "roughly coincident" series . NBER Lagging Indicators .—Some series, such as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate economic activity, and for this reason, they are designated as "lagging" series. Other series.—Additional U . S . series with business cycle significance are also shown. Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing. Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries whichhave important trade relations with the United States are presented. Method of Presentation Data are shown in this report in three general categories, as follows: Basic data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2 ) . — O v e r 50 business cycle indicators and about 30 additional series with business cycle significance are included. Together they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations. Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 3-6). — These measures aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also aid in pointing to developments in particular industries and places. Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7 - 9 ) . — The current cyclical change is compared with changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle. In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data, key information, and adjustment factors. Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points The historical business cycle turning points are those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, a business cycle turning point will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred. Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this report wherever they are available. However, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series are as follows: 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 30, 37, 55, 62, 81, 82, 83, 84, 90, 91, 92, 97, 112, and 128. Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the NBER or the Bureau of the Census using Method II. The adjustment factors are shown in appendix table D, except for series 11 and 97 which are the sums of seasonally adjusted components, and series 9 and 10 which are based on Descriptions and Procedures unpublished source data. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted for the series mentioned above whenever they are published. Method II adjusts for changes in average climatic conditions and institutional arrangements during the year. Adjustments for variations in the number of trading days are also made for some series; for example, new building permits. Further adjustments for variable holidays, such as Easter, are made for certain series; for example, retail sales of apparel. Studies are now underway to determine whether similar adjustments for Labor Day, Thanksgiving Day, and the day of the week upon which Christmas falls would be useful. Studies of the effects of unusual weather upon some series have also been started. It is important to note, however, that present methods adjust for average weather conditions and not for the dispersion about this average; that is, present methods are designed to adjust for normal but not abnormal weather at any time of the year. For this reason, many seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will tend to be low in months when the weather is unusually bad and high in months when the weather is unusually good. While it eventually may be possible, Census methods do not at present make any adjustments for such variations . MCD Meving Averages MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series . This span is usually longer than a single month because month-to-month changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change from the same month a year ago), and is different for different series (see appendix C for MCD values and method of computation) . MCD is, on average, the first interval of months for which the average amplitude of the cyclical factor is greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so. It is small for smooth series and large for irregular series. The differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally adjusted values separated by the same MCD span; thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month moving average are commensurate with differences in seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD moving averages all have about the same degree of smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of highly irregular series, such as business failures and Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for such smooth series as industrial production and personal income. MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an indication of the variation about these moving averages, seasonally adjusted data are also plotted for years beginning with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful moving averages such as the weighted 15-term Spencer curve, the MCD curve is more current and has a smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations . Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually larger than those computed from historical series and shown in appendix C . MCD is usually computed for a fairly long period, one covering both expansions and contractions. 1 Since the pace of change varies from phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times. Thus MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely to be too high during the early stages of recovery when expansion has usually been rapid and too low during the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance has usually been small. This limitation should also be borne in mind when making use of this m e a s u r e , 2 Analytical Measures of Current Change Three kinds of analytical measures are presented— diffusion indexes, timing distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, the imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and the extent of current changes in different parts of the economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places. Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of groups of economic series. They express, for a given group, the percent of the series which has risen over given intervals of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the aggregate and they measure how widespread a business change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling) . Widespread increases are often associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity, and widespread declines with sharp reductions. The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped according to the timing classification of the NBER. For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1-month intervals (January-February, FebruaryMarch, etc.) and generally for either 3- or 5-month intervals depending upon the irregularity of the ^-Various terms are used to describe the phases of the business cycle. In this report both "contraction" and "recession" are used to describe the declining phase. No difference in meaning is intended. 2 For a more complete description of MCD and its use in studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961). Descriptions and Procedures series. The indexes based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but they are also more irregular than the 3- or 5-month indexes (see chart 2) . Quarterly series are compared over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals. Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate diffusion indexes. ' When one of these numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series number, it means that the diffusion index has been computed from components of the indicator series; for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from components of series number 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new numbers. This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based on 15 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5). Eighteen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9 indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D58) . Indexes for these indicators show comparisons for components over 1-month and either 3- or 5-month spans. The 11 other diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely related to the above 9 indicators. They include two National Industrial Conference Board indexes ( l - and 3quarter spans) based on newly approved capital appropriations (17 industries); the First National City Bank of New York index based on quarterly profit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers 1 sales (800 companies) and new orders (400 companies), based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data from the Association of American Railroads; and new plant and equipment expenditures ( 16 industries) , based on data from the Office of Business Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations show what proportion of business enterprises (or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag in recognition of actual developments . Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of current data are often highly irregular and require careful judgment in their use and interpretation. Timing distributions .—Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence for a prospective business cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution is constructed which shows the number of series reaching high values during each month of the expansion. The timing distribution is summarized by showing the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of "lows" will be prepared during contractions. To provide historical perspective for interpreting the distribution of current highs, such distributions are also shown for leading and coincident series as they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and at their peaks. To compile timing distributions for the current cyclical phase, the data for the principal business cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a business cycle expansion, the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted series, that is series with negative conformity to the business cycle, low values are taken during expansions and high values during contractions.) If the values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic values are disregarded, although it is, of course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for the current month. The letter "H" is used in the basic data table (table 2) to identify and highlight the current high values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to identify the low values preceding the current highs. The highs designated during the current cyclical phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead. On the other hand, lows preceding current highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those for periods around earlier business cycle troughs and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective business cycle turning point. Interpretations of timing distributions must be made in light of the fact that a contraction following a high value reached several months ago may be the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be reached in some future month. In short, when the percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both the leading and roughly coincident series, this does not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so, but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in the upward movement. Direction-of-change tables. — Direction-of-change tables show directions of change ("+" for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show which economic activities went up, which went down, and how long such movements have persisted. They also help to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to another. Directions of change for each index component are shown for consecutive months and, depending upon the irregularity of the series, for either 3- 01 5-month spans. Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns In forming a judgment about the current intensity and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion indexes in the current business cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle—whether it is in an expansion or contraction. Descriptions and Procedures Expansions may be compared by measuring changes from the immediately preceding peak levels . In table 7 of this report, the current expansion is measured from the May I960 reference peak to the month of latest reported data. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are computed from their respective reference peaks to dates which are the same number of months beyond the succeeding reference troughs as the current expansion is Beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes computed from reference peak levels and from reference trough dates . Although the spans from reference trough dates are the same number of months for each expansion, the spans from the preceding peak dates are different, depending on the length of the contractions for each period. Also, for those earlier periods of expansion that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons made in table 7 reflect the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. This type of comparison answers the question whether, and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding business cycle peak, a given number of months after the recovery began, and how the current situation compares, in this respect, with earlier expansions . Expansions also may be compared by computing changes from reference trough levels and from reference trough dates (table 8) . This type of comparison measures the extent of the rise from the trough level so many months after the upswing began. The same situation exists here as for the comparisons shown in table 7: For earlier expansions that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons show the status at a point after a new contraction had set in. Contractions can be compared by computing changes over the span from the most recent business cycle peak to the current month and over equal spans from previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is designated as representing changes from reference peak levels and from reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made during a contraction period. In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the basis of reference dates (which are the same for all s e r i e s ) , comparisons are made on the basis of specific peak and trough dates identified for each series. For example, the specific peak in retail sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is July 1959 (See appendix B) . Specific cycle comparisons are shown in table 9. These comparisons differ from those shown for reference cycles in that they show the status only up to the specific peak date. For some series past specific expansions were shorter than the current one and, therefore, the earlier comparisons span fewer months than those for the current expansion. In order to make historical comparisons, it is frequently necessary to use data for a closely related series for cycles prior to the initial date covered by the series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in definition, coverage, or estimation pro- cedure since 1919. sort are as follows: The principal cases of this 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space) 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in manufacturing) 52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data as published by Barger and Klein) 54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit) . Charts Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical patterns of the business cycle indicators: Historical time series and cyclical comparisons. Historical Time Series (charts 1 , 2 , and 3) . — These charts show the cyclical fluctuations of each series against the background of expansions and recessions in general business activity from 1948 to the current month. Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle recession between business cycle peak dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle trough dates (ends of shaded areas) . The shading for a new recession will be entered only after a trough has been designated. Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series. The scale selected for each series is identified in the margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series can be compared with each other only where scales are identical. See the diagram, page 5, for additional help in using these charts . Cyclical Comparisons (charts 4 and 5) .—These charts compare the performance of each series during the current expansion with its performance during the expansion phase of previous business cycles. The usual date sequence followed in charts is disregarded, and instead the data are alined at the strategic point of the business cycle: For expansions, the reference trough (chart 4) and specific trough (chart 5 ) . Thus these charts facilitate judgements on the vigor of the current expansion relative to cyclical movements during the corresponding expansions of previous cycles. Two types of cyclical comparisons are made. Chart 4 compares the pattern of the current business or reference cycle ( i . e . , t h e cycle for aggregate economic activity) with movements over the corresponding phase of previous reference cycles. Chart 5 compares the pattern of the current specific cycle ( i . e . , the cycle for a particular series) with the movements over the corresponding phases of previous specific cycles in that series. In both charts, the trough dates are alined. In chart 4, the levels of the preceding peaks are also alined and in chart 5, the levels of the preceding troughs are also alined. See the section, "Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns", for more detailed descriptions of these comparisons. Descriptions and Procedures HIV to Charts 1, 2, 3 (May) (Feb.) P Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated by NBER Solid line indicates monthly data. (Such data may be the table-2 figures, MCD moving averages, or diffusion indexescharts 2 and 3.) Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by NBER Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted ("5"-May) Broken lines indicate table-2 data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted Para lie! lines indicate a break in continuity—e.g., data not available, change in sample reported, change in base used for computations, etc. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted ("I" = first quarter) See back cover for complete titles and sources of series Dotted line indicates anticipated 61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)--Q Solid line with quarterly plotting points indicates quarterly data Various ratio and arithmetic scales are used to highlight the cyclical timing and patterns for each series; where different scales are used, the rates of change are not comparable from series to series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale; "scale L-l" is a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle; "scale L-2", a semilogarithm scale with 2 cycles, etc. *Certain irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages. These series are noted. Such averages are plotted 2 months behind actual data for MCD 5-term moving averages and 2/4 months behind, for MCD 6-term moving averages. See text for description of MCD moving averages. Basic Data Table l.-BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS Basic data1 Series descriptions (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg... Per 100 empl. 30. Nonagri. placements, all industries. Thous ........ Per 100 empl. 4. Temporary layoff, all industries.... Thous 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State ..do unemployment insurance 6. New orders, durable goods Indus..... 24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus.. 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial. 10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip.. 11. New capital appropriations, mfg.4... June 1964 May 1964 Percent change2 Aug. 1964 July 1964 Avg. change, 195319633 July to Aug. 1964 40.6 r4.1 516 rl.6 • 117 r40.5 P3.9 523 pi. 8 129 260 259 261 240 5.3 +0.4 -0.8 +8.0 +0.4 -0.3 +6.6 -2.0 -9.1 -3.1 +4.3 +11.1 0.0 -1.5 (NA) (NA) P40.7 (NA) 499 (NA) 87 0.5 -0.2 4.9 +7.9 1.8 -3.2 9.5 +5.9 17.8 -12.5 19.94 3.93 r20.02 r3.92 r21.35 3.84 p!9.40 P3.72 3.8 4.5 46.22 4.63 P4.87 48.22 r4.63 53.55 P4.56 (NA) (NA) 9.7 4.9 11.6 7. Private nonfarm housing starts...... Ann. rate, thous ....... 29. New bldg. permits, private housing.. 1957-59=100.. 45 12. Net change, number of businesses . Thous Number. ..... 14. Liabilities of business failures.... Mil. dol r!507 rl!2.1 +17 15932 90.44 r!585 rl!5.2 rH66 r!09.9 p!380 P113.1 15797 153.07 15852 151.92 (NA) 76.20 39 38 43 40 r31.9 103.7 8.9 r!02.9 103.2 p!02.8 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*.... 1941-43=10... 21. Change in business inventories, all Ann. rate, industries4 5 bil. dol.... 31. Change in book value, manufacturing ..do... 20. Change in book value, mfrs.1 inven5 tories of materials and supplies .. . .do June to July 1964 40.7 3.8 533 1.7 104 Bil. dol • .do Mil. sq. ft. floor space. Bil. dol ..do No. per week. 16. Corporate profits after taxes4...... Ann. rate, bil. dol.... 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. 1957-59=100.. 4 18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg. .... Cents 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries4.... May to June 1964 7.3 +5.2 3.8 +2.8 2 2.7 -0.8 16.9 -69.3 -7.5 -4.6 -5.9 +2.9 +0.3 +0.8 (NA) +49.8 13.1 +2.6 -13.2 +7.0 6.3 0.7 6.8 -0.8 +0.3 -0.4 -0.6 +3.7 -1.5 5.1 rlO.5 80.72 -0.2 +0.5 -4.9 (NA) +1.4 -4.6 -12.5 (NA) -10.3 +32.6 80.24 83.22 82.00 +3.7 2.6 2.5 r+1.6 r+1.4 p-0.4 (NA) 3.5 -0 2 -1.8 (NA) -0.1 r-0.7 p-2.3 (NA) 1.5 -0.6 -1.6 (NA) 51 56 58 57 6.8 +9.8 +3.6 -1.7 ..do 58 59 58 58 5.8 +1.7 -1.7 0.0 ..do 63 55 59 65 7.7 -12.7 +7.3 +10.2 Bil. dol 1957-59=100.. +0.38 100.9 r+0.81 101.4 r+1.42 p+1.05 102.5 105.7 0.49 +0.43 +0.61 1.3 +0.5 +1.1 -0.37 +3.1 Thous . .do 58590 65889 5.1 2.6 3.6 r58782 65549 5.3 2.8 3.6 r58929 65706 4.9 2.7 3.6 P58944 65678 5.1 2.6 3.5 0.3 0.4 4.2 6.0 4.8 +0.3 -0.5 -3.9 -7.7 0.0 +0.3 +0.2 +7.5 +3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.1 +3.7 +2.8 118 131.3 121 r!31.6 124 132.7 p!23 p!33.5 3.1 1.1 +2.5 +0.2 +2.5 +0.8 -0.8 +0.6 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commit32. Vendor performance, percent report25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 23. Industrial materials prices* NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees in nonagri. establishments. 42. Total nonagri cultural employment.... 43 . Unemployment rate, total 40.. Unemployment rate, married males.... 45. Avg. weekly insured unemplojt, State. 46 . Help-wanted advert is ing 47. Industrial production.... 50. GNP in 1954 dollars4 49. GNP in current dollars4 57. Final sales4 51. Bank debits outside NYC . .do ..do 1957-59=100.. ..do Ann. rate, bil. dol.... ..do ..do 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. . .do 54. Sales of retail stores Mil. dol 55. Wholesale prices, except farm prod1957-59=100.. 1.3 1.5 1.3 513.5 618.6 614.9 2313.0 487.8 125.8 21777 2328.8 489.3 126.4 r21773 101.1 101.0 2430.9 P2372.9 r491.4 P493.9 r!26.9 p!27.7 r21964 p22115 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 +0.7 +0.3 +0.5 0.0 +4.4 +0.4 +0.4 +0.9 -2.4 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7 plOl.2 0.2 -0.1 +0.2 0.0 101.2 Basic Data Table 1.--BASIC DATA AND CURRENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 4 MOST RECENT MONTHS-Continued Basic data1 Series descriptions (See complete titles and sources on back cover) Unit of measure May 1964 June 1964 Percent change2 July 1964 Aug. 1964 Avg. May change, to 1953- June 19633 1964 June to July 1964 July to Aug. 1964 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 61. Business expenditures, new plant Ann. rate, and equipment4" bil. dol.... 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.. 1957-59=100.. 68. Labor cost per dollar of real cor64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories.... 65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of finished goods 66. Consumer installment debt 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans*^. r43.50 97.5 r98!l 98.0 ra44.55 P98.3 3.2 0.6 +0.6 -0.1 +2.4 +0.3 Bil. dol 104.9 60.5 60.4 p60.4 (NA) 0.9 0.5 -0.2 0.0 (NA) ..do Mil. dol 21.6 55220 r21.5 55590 P21.6 (NA) (NA) 0.8 0.8 -0.5 +0.7 +0.5 +0.9 (NA) (NA) +8.8 +8.8 -0.4 +5.8 -7.7 +1.7 -5.5 -4.9 +3.4 Percent.. . . 56073 2.3 4.99 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 82. Federal cash payments to public 90. Ann. rate, bil. dol.... Federal cash receipts from public... ..do......... Federal cash surplus or deficit5.... ..do.. Balance, Federal income and product account*4 5.... ..do Defense Dept. oblig., procurement... Mil. dol 91. 92. 99. 93. Defense Dept. obligations, total.... Military contract awards in U.S..... New orders, defense products Free reserves*5 83. 84. 95. ..do ..do Bil. dol Mil. dol Percent. ..... 98. Change in money supply and time deposits5 ..do 110. Total private borrowing^. ........... Ann. rate, bil. dol.... .. do 5 112. Change, business loans ..do. 113. Change, consumer installment debt5.. • •do 114. Treasury bill rate*. • ..do ..do 117. Municipal bond yields* ..do 118. Mortgage yields*. ..do 86. Exports, excluding military aid..... Mil. dol ..do... 88. Merchandise trade balance5 ..do 5 89. U.S. balance of payments^ ..do 81. 94. 96. 97. Consumer prices 1957-59=100.. Construction contracts, value ..do Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus...Bil. dol 6 Backlog of capital appro, mfg. ..do 110.3 105.1 -5.2 120.0 114.4 -5.6 126.9 116.4 -10.5 117.1 110.0 -7.1 -9.2 2192 p!015 1691 (NA) 4941 2465 2.48 +78 rO.OO P4211 1663 r2.34 +118 +0.71 5274 (NA) r3.30 r+132 +0.71 (NA) p2.07 p+77 pfO.32 r+0.37 +0.81 +0.73 p+0.62 5.7 5.4 5.6 2.5 26.9 -53.7 +66.6 (NA) 15.1 -14.8 +25.2 (NA) 26.2 -32.5 (NA) 23.3 -5.6 +41.0 -37.3 +40 104.2 +14 -55 0.00 -0.39 0.23 +0.71 0.21 +0.44 -0.08 -0.11 11.6 8.6 1.22 -1.72 (NA) (NA) +5.60 +3.88 +3.84 +4.75 +5.92 3.48 4.16 4.48 3.20 +4.44 3.48 4.13 4.49 3.20 +5.80 3.48 4.13 4.43 3.18 (NA) 3.51 4.14 4.43 3.19 0.85 -1.48 +1.36 (NA) 0.0 +0.9 0.0 7.3 0.0 +0.2 1.8 -0.7 0.0 -1.3 1.7 +0.2 0.0 -0.6 +0.3 2.6 5.45 2052.1 1548.1 +504.0 -789 5.45 2004.3 1505.5 +498.8 5.46 2111.4 1589.6 +521.8 5.46 (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.58 4.6 3.6 59.0 286 108.0 138 49.22 108.1 138 r50.04 (NA) 108.1 140 r51.46 (NA) (NA) P51.57 0.2 7.0 1.5 5.9 -0.04 +0.91 0.0 +0.2 -2.3 +5.3 -2.8 +5.6 -5.2 +23.0 +0.1 0.0 +1.7 (NA) 0.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) 0.0 (NA) +1.4 (NA) +2.8 +0.2 r • revised; p a preliminary; e = estimated; a * anticipated; NA » not available. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; e.g., if the rate of decrease is 0.6 percent, it is shown as -tO.6. See footnote 5 for other "change" qualifications. 3 This average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign. The period varies among the series, covering 1953-63 for most series. ^Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. 5 Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent. 6 End-of-quarter series. Figures are placed in the last month of quarter. Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators | 42 1. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfq. (hour;) 41 40 | 39 38 2. Accession rote, info,, (per 100 employees) 5 4 o ^ u «* 3 700 600 2 500 i 30. Nonaqri. placements, all inclus (thou^. 400 3. Layoff rate, mfq. (per 100 employees inverted scale) 1 2 1 3 75 4. Temp, l a y o f f , all indus. (tlious.-inverted scale. MCD moving avq.--5-tctm) 100 1252 150 "§ 175 200 225 250 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl insur. (thous.—inverted scale) 200 *? 300 t 1 400 500 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data CHART 1 N BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. A (Nov.) P NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Oct.) T (July) P (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T 6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. do! 24. New orders, mach. and equip Indus, (bil. dol.) 9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq ft. of floor area. MCD moving avg.—6-term) 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.) IT New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol 7. Private npnfarm housing starts (millions MCD moving avg.—6-term) 29. New private housing units •jew bldq. Diag. permits, pr index: 1957-59-100) i- 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 10 Basic Data CHART 1 ^ BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. A (Nov.) P NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (July) P (Oct.) T (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T New businesses and business failures +16 12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.) +12 +8 < -£ o +4 * 0 -4 13. New bus. incorporations (thous.) 20 18 16 14 2 12 io 10 8 -i 20 14 Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.—6-term) 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.-inverted scale. MCD moving avg.--6-term) 20 30 40 50 1948 1949 1950 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. dnlii II III lii III II In III 111 it In wit Jim III III ii lii lulu nliH»l»«lii In In 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1951 1952 1953 1954 60 11 Basic Data CHART 1 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. A (Nov.) P (Oct.) T NBER L e a d i n g I n d i c a t o r s — C o n . (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 35 30 16. Corporate profits, after taxes, Q (bil. dol.) 25 L/ 20 2 _a» § J 15 no 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100) 105 c>. 100 i 95 15.0 12.5 ^ 18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg., Q (cents 10.0 i V 7.5 15.0 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all industries, Q (percent) 12.5 7.5 100 90 80 70 60 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 194f-43-10) 50 2 40 1 30 20 urn ii iiliiaiy A-liim iilnliilii iimliilii lilmMaUiillilii iiliilii n ti itiiiliiii n lim liliiliilll iilimim iimllmi 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1964 12 Basic Data CHART 1 b BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. A (Nov.) P NBER Leading Indicators—Con. (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices | 21, Change in bus. inventories, all indus., Q (bil. dol.) 31. Change in book value, mfg. and trade inventories(Ann. rate, bil. a'ol. MCD moving avg.--4-term ) 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories, materials, and supplies (Ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg,--5-ter 37. Purchased materials, 26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. MCD moving avg.--4-ter-n) dol. 23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59~100) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Basic Data 13 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T r T |Employment and unemployment! 60 41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (millions) 55 -i 50 s X" 42. Total nonagr. employment (millions) -|65 60 55 50 43. Unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale) 3 4 i 6 * 7 8 2 40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent—inverted scale 5 6 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate 3 4 U 5 6 7 46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59 = 100) 140 120 100 w 80 60 ii nlliliilii iilnlnlii nliilnlii iiliiby ^yiiilii iiliiliilii iilnliilii iiliiy&iiBiUH iiliiliiln iilifWiHdiiliiln nliiliilii iiliiliilii niiiliilii 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 < 5 14 Basic Data CHART 1 t BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. B NBER Roughly Coincident I n d i c a t o r s — C o n . (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July) (Aug.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100) 50. GNP in 1954 dollars, Q (bil. dol.) 49. GNP in current dollars, Q (bil. dol.) 57. Final sales, Q (bil. dol.) -J 250 n ii m In In II In In In II In ttUJEsHi III III II lii iilii n mdfttf HI n MI 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. Basic Data CHART 1 ta B (Nov.) P 15 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. NBER Roughly C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s - - C o n . (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 52. Personal income (bil. dol.) 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.) 54. Sales of retail stores (bil. cfol.) 55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (index: 1957-59 = 100) Wholesale prices -1 80 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 16 Basic Data CHART 1 t BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. C (Nov.) P NBER Lagging Indicators (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T 61. Bus. expend., new plant andequip., Q (bil. dol.) Investment expenditures 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100) j Cost per unit of output) 68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100) 64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol.) 65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.) 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.) 67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans, Q (percent) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 17 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. Other U.S. S e r i e s with B u s i n e s s Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P I (Aug.) T (julyKApr.) P T 1 1S [Federal budget and military commitments (May) (Feb.) P T FT! 140 82. Fed cash payments to public (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.--6 term) 120 100 .* § 80 120 83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol. MCD moving avg,--6-term) 100 u^-X^ x; W^ C^ A 80 1 r~* X 60 84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.—6-t.erm) f\ ^ IIJ •HO W^^P^" '% -10 95. Surplus or deficit. Fed. income and product acct., Q (bil. dol/ •HO -10 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol MCD moving avg.—o-term) 91. Defense e e n s e Dept. ept. o bgl i.. , Tota Total (bil. dol MCD moving avg.--o-term) 4 92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol. MCD moving avg.—6-term)/\ K 1 1 3 3.0 ^ i 2.0 i 99, New orders, defense products (bil. dol. MCD moving avq.--6-term) 3.0 2.0 1.0 1948 1949 19501951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1964 1 18 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. CHART 1 D • Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance—Con. (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T Reserves, money supply and financing n+1.2 93. Free reserves (bil. dol.) 1 -0.6 85. Change in money supply (percent MCD moving avg.--6-term +.8 0 +1.2 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (percent MCD moving avq.—6-term) +.8 < i u +.4 * 0 60 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 50 1 40 50 < 111. Corporate gross savings (Ann. rate, bil. c'ol. 40 30 112. Changes in bank loans to businesses (Ann. rate, bil. dol. MCD moving avg.--5-term) \ 113. Change in consumer installment debt. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) +6 +3 0 -3 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 i Basic Data 19 BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. D [I Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle Significance-Con. (Nov.) P li (Oct.) T (July) P M (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Interest rates f 114. Treasury bill rate (percent) 1 V^ 115. Treasury bond yields (percent) l/V 116. Corporate bond yields (percent) h r 117. Municipal bond yields (percent) kt/T 1 118. Mortgage yields (percent) UK] 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3,"t>age 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 20 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. Other U.S. Series with Business Cycle S i g n i f i c a n c e - - C o n . (Nov.) P (July) P (Oct.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) T (May) P (Feb.) T . Merchandise trade balance (bil. dot.) 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dol.) 94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100 MCD moving avg.--5-term) 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.) 97. Backlog of cap. appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 21 Basic Data BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con. International Comparisons of Industrial Production (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T f Ii Industrial production indexes | |r 47, United States (index: 1957-59-100) 122. United Kingdom (index: 1957-59-100) 121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100) 125. West Germany (index: 1957-59-100) 128. Japan (index: 1957-59-100) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 Sec "Bow to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 22 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by HD; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3> 4, 5, 14? 15, 40, 43> and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. ]M3ER Leading Indicators Year and month 1. Avg. work- 2. Accession week, produc- rate, manution workers, facturing2 manufacturing1 (Hours) (Per 100 employees) 30. Nonagri- 3. Layoff rate, manucultural placements, facturing all industries (Thous.) (Per 100 employees) 4. Persons on temporary layoff, all industries3 (Thous.) 5 . Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance ^ 6. New orders, durable goods industries (Thous . ) (Bil. dol.) 24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries 5 (Bil. dol.) 1961 February March April May July August. September • October, ....... Per»em>)p-l% 39 3.8 43 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.8 04.4 4.3 4.1 ©/// 40.3 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.2 40.7 40.2 40.4 40.2 42 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 557 559 572 574 40.4 40.3 40.5 40.1 40.5 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.7 40.6 40.5 40.5 40.1 40.6 40.7 40.7 40.7 40.6 39 2 39.4 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 39.9 40.0 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.3 2.76 2.74 2.71 2.74 2.70 2.80 3.03 3.07 2.88 2.91 2.98 2.96 29 ©2.9 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 173 ©222 215 141 150 151 101 136 127 113 115 127 393 ©429 379 381 358 334 348 316 329 304 305 296 557 557 550 555 554 563 547 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 135 88 118 107 126 124 128 127 127 125 133 120 304 291 279 280 300 309 308 303 300 300 298 317 17.70 17.70 17.15 17.02 17.22 16.65 16.91 16.59 16.55 17.29 16.73 17.33 3.15 3.30 2.97 3.31 3.10 3.02 3.07 2.94 2.98 3.05 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.9 552 555 553 560 551 541 541 540 552 570 530 532 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 152 121 107 138 95 92 131 130 108 135 134 97 313 294 285 290 286 287 283 285 282 281 280 308 18.47 18.23 18.78 19.04 18.74 17.68 18.28 18.06 18.24 18.62 18.11 17.97 3.25 3.21 3.22 3.35 3.42 3.29 3.33 3.31 3.42 3.44 3.27 3.61 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 38 r4 I D3 9 (NA) 536 535 520 522 533 516 523 1.8 17 1.7 1.6 1.7 [H]rl 6 pi 8 (NA) 123 123 91 122 104 117 1 ?Q 087 289 264 273 260 260 259 261 024C lQ ni 3 62 447 459 4/4fl 469 494 493 512 507 524 540 551 ©13 95 14.31 14.53 15.51 15.59 15.89 15.92 16.12 15.97 16.26 16.74 17.26 1962 40 o February March April May July August September December. ...... 1963 February. April May June July August Septeniber ...... October November December 1964 January. ....... February. March April May June July August September * October 1 rl 0 ^ (771 n/ D *7 0592 499 6 i Q cn 19. 50 1 Q QA on / /: 3.16 3.07 •* /-\ 1 /A 1 Ai Q / (T71Q no •p9(~) r>o -p-5 QP o #/ -) Q 1? .V4 nriT'91 jp *3c lHjr<!l. _-] Q i r\ PIV ,4U r>? 7? ?/Q 2 © = December 1960. © = October 1960. Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series, Prior to April 1962, the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark. exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. November I960. 5© Week ended September 5. 3 23 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEKT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by [H"|; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 4-5). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. N3ER Leading Indicators — Continued Year and month 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 10. Contracts 11. Newly ap- 7. New private proved capital nonfarm dweland orders, plant and appropriations, ling units equipment 602 manufac- started2 turing corporations -1 (Mil. sq. ft. floor space) (Bil. dol.) 36.21 36.49 37.49 35.62 ©35.16 36.73 36.57 39.32 38.73 33.88 41.61 41.69 3.51 3.39 ©3.20 3.28 3.27 3.39 3.57 3.66 3.40 3.48 3.66 3.50 38.70 42.75 45.90 42.72 44.64 41.16 40.56 42.69 40.96 41.08 42.20 41.89 3.71 3.98 3.71 3.96 3.76 3.66 3.72 3.61 3.56 3.66 3.82 3.99 44.61 45.11 39.42 40.23 47.00 51.39 45.78 44.93 43.88 50.81 43.14 44.15 3.84 3.82 3.75 3.98 4.28 3.96 3.94 3.91 4.08 4.17 4.32 04.68 51.64 52.47 48.17 054.84 46.22 48.22 53.55 (NA) 4.37 4.12 4.10 4.37 4.63 r4.63 p4.56 (NA) 1961 January, ....... February. March April May June July September October November (Bil. dol.) Revised3 2.26 2.46 2.85 2.62 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits 2 (Ann. rate, thous . ) Revised3 1,216 1,199 1,305 1,133 1,215 1,340 1,305 1,252 1,453 1,381 1,319 1,324 (1957-59=100) Revised3 89.5 88.2 91.3 91.4 93.2 98.7 98.9 101.9 100.2 104.2 101.8 99.0 1,392 1,253 1,460 1,489 1,501 1,366 1,423 1,459 1,328 1,491 1,564 1,541 103.8 109.1 104.0 111.9 103.8 106.1 108.7 107.1 109.1 107.2 113.0 112.0 1,287 1,418 1,551 1,656 1,651 1,558 1,584 1,454 1,712 03 1,824 1,544 1,524 111.8 108.2 112.9 113.6 120.0 119.3 116.5 113.5 121.0 123.6 119.9 123.7 1,688 1,613 1,638 1,501 1,507 1,585 1,466 pl,.380 117.6 ©123.9 121.5 112.9 112.1 115.2 109.9 P113.1 12. Net change 13. New business incorpoin business rations. population, operating businesses (Thous . ) ©-"-6 +10 '+9 +11 (Number) ©13,607 14,570 14,658 15,327 15,298 15,431 15,492 15,277 15,402 16,035 16,149 15,881 1962 March April... May July August September ...... November December 2.86 2*.*56 3.04 3*25 +11 +12 +11 +11 15,599 15,758 15,670 15,372 15,245 14,947 15,171 15,056 15,249 14,892 H,951 14,985 1963 April jVfety June July November 2 ".68 3*. 35 4*. 07 3*93 +11 +ii +13 +12 14,924 15,390 15,563 15,305 15,682 15,536 15,431 16,093 15,689 016,275 15,759 15,867 1964 March April May July August 4.01 m]p4.87 October November 1 3 2 © = 3rd quarter I960. © = December 1960. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. +16 E+17 16,193 16,086 16,064 16,242 15,932 15,797 15,852 (NA) 24 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by ftTi; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading Indicators—Continued 14 • Current liabilities of business f allures 1 Year and month (Mil. dol.) 1961 January March April Jfey June July August. ........ September October 15. Business 16. Corporate profits failures with liabil- after taxes ities of $100,000 and over 2 17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, manufacturing (Number per week) (1957-59= 100) Revised3 77.79 83.73 116.17 76.88 82.96 86.69 80.15 94.47 126.12 72.28 119.93 71.81 38 41 39 39 42 40 43 36 39 42 39 38 101.53 86.03 77.40 107.15 89.80 93.15 ••.07.98 121.85 106.02 129.87 96.62 99.61 37 032 36 38 38 146.46 93.05 94.12 88.15 115.05 91.07 144.50 Q352.86 94.52 99.92 255.72 87.17 49 43 42 40 51 38 39 42 43 42 38 39 87.70 121.87 107.25 98.50 90.44 153.07 151.92 76.20 41 42 37 46 39 38 43 40 (Ann. rate, bil. dol. ©19^5 21.8 22^6 24.*5 99.3 ©98.8 98.9 100.4 100.3 101.0 101.4 102.0 101.6 101.5 101.7 102.3 18. Profits (before taxes) per dol. sales, all mfg. corporations 22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all indus. 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks* 2 (Cents) (Percent) (1941-43=10) ©6>!6 ©7!9 7!6 8*.6 7*.9 8*.5 B.6 9^3 8.2 9\2 8.1 9li 8.1 9.1 8*.3 9.1 7!<? 9a 8^5 9!4 S.5 9\3 B'.& 9^8 09 .'i 10.4 8.9 (HJrlO.5 59.72 62.17 64.12 65.83 66.50 65.62 65.44 67.79 67.26 68.00 71.08 71.74 21. Change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all indus. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) ©-3 .*9 +2.1 +3!7 +5 .'6 1962 February March April May June July October December a 38 45 40 46 42 37 101.3 101.7 101.8 100.9 101.1 100.4 100.7 100.7 101.9 100.7 101.1 100.5 24*.5 24^9 25.6 25.7 69.07 70.22 70.29 68.05 62.99 55.63 56.97 58.52 58.00 56-.17 60.04 62.64 0+6.9 +6>!l +5.1 +5.4 1963 March April flfey June July August Septpinher T T r -, , , October November DecprriheT*, . . Tt ,, 100.6 100.8 101.3 101.3 101.8 102.7 102.3 101.5 101.9 102.0 101.9 102.4 25^5 26i6 26.1 2B\3 65.06 65.92 65.67 68.76 70.14 70.11 69.07 70.98 72.85 73.03 72.62 74.17 +3^6 +3^6 +4.*2 +6.4 1964 February March April May June July August, T . . . . T . . 31.2 0r31.9 103.2 103.3 102.7 0103.8 103.7 102.9 103.2 p!02.8 October 1 2 © = June 1960. © = October 1960. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. 3 4 Average for September 15, 16, and 17. 76.45 77.39 78.80 79.94 80.72 80.24 083.22 "e?.oo 4 83.34 +2.*5 H-3.7 25 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (E) and current highs, by fiTl; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4? 53 14» 15? 40, 43', and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading Indicators — Continued Year and month 31. Change in 20. Change in book value, book value, manufa c turi ng mfrs. ' invenand trade in- tories of materials and ventories, supplies1 total1 1961 torch April May July August. ........ September October November. December 1962 February March April May June July October November 1963 January March April toy June July August October November pefipTriber. ...... 1964 January, February torch April toy June July. August September 1 (Ann. rate, Ml. dol.) Revised4 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) -4.3 -2.2 -7.2 +1.0 +0.8 -0.8 +2.0 +3.1 +4.0 +1.9 +7.0 +6.2 -1.6 -1.9 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories (Percent reporting) 26. Production matls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer* I (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) 25. Change in 23. Industrial unfilled or- materials ders, durable prices* ^ goods industries3 (Bil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 0+6.6 41 ©35 39 42 46 43 46 54 57 56 52 55 51 49 50 57 54 56 56 55 57 59 59 54 38 40 40 47 48 48 49 52 55 55 51 53 -0.39 -0.07 -0.42 +0.36 +0.07 +0.11 +0.37 +0.42 +0.01 +0.25 +0.41 +0.65 97.3 99.3 103.1 104.1 104.4 101.0 101.7 102.9 102.9 102.3 98.9 101.0 +6.0 +5.7 +6.0 +2.6 +7.1 +5.6 +3.9 +2.0 +5.6 +5.5 +1.2 +5.1 +1.9 +3.0 +2.7 +0.8 +1.0 +0.2 -2.4 -0.3 +1.8 -0.2 +0.5 -1.7 58 57 57 55 53 48 45 46 44 45 49 48 57 061 56 55 49 52 58 52 52 55 52 51 56 56 55 48 46 42 44 44 48 48 48 48 +0.63 +0.62 -0.67 -0.34 -0.46 -0.37 -0.25 -0.60 -0.36 +0.21 -0.40 +0.91 102.9 100.6 100.4 98.3 97.8 95.4 94.2 94.5 94.0 94.9 96.4 95.8 +3.1 +2.5 +3.0 +4.6 +2.7 +5.1 +6.0 +1.8 +5.6 +7.1 S+9.6 +7.2 +0.6 +0.4 -0.2 +0.9 -0.3 +0.7 -0.5 +1.7 +1.7 -0.2 -0.7 46 48 47 50 55 57 56 50 49 46 42 42 50 55 54 53 52 57 54 55 56 53 54 55 50 52 54 60 58 54 42 48 52 48 48 46 +0.96 +0.68 +0.94 +0.85 +0.33 -0.58 -0.54 -0.05 +0.38 +0.10 -0.09 -0.40 95.5 95.1 94.4 94.5 95.2 93.9 94.2 94.2 94.1 96.3 97.3 97.7 +3.5 0.0 +3.7 +7.8 +1.6 +1.4 P-0.4 (NA) -1.9 -0.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.1 r-0.7 p-2.3 (NA) 40 50 54 55 51 56 058 57 53 54 56 59 58 59 58 58 55 54 60 60 63 55 59 065 +0.40 +0.57 +0.16 +1.04 +0.38 r+0.81 0r+1.42 p+1.05 98.5 98.5 98.9 102.4 100.9 101.4 102.5 0105.7 5 108.2 -2.0 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 +0.8 +2.9 +2.2 +0.3 +1.3 -0.4 2 3 © = December 1960. (D = March 1960. © = January 1960. "New Features and Changes for This Issue,' page ii. Average for September 15, 16, and 17. 4 See 5 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries* 2 Basic Data 26 Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by HO; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45)• Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators Year and month 41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments 43. Unem42. Total nonagricul- ployment rate, total1 tural employment, labor force survey1 2 40. Unemployment rate, married males1 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs3 46. Helpwanted advertising in newspapers July August. ........ September ...... October December 1962 January March April May June July September October November ....... 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (1957-59= 100) Revised4 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Thous.) (Thous.) (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 53,725 ©53,541 53,615 53,713 53,911 54,165 54,294 54,444 54,480 54,593 54,825 54,927 61,034 60,897 61,229 61,154 61,134 61,622 61,259 61,274 61,299 61,463 61,896 61,747 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.0 ©7.1 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.9 ©5.0 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.9 6.2 6.3 ©6.3 5.9 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.8 88 ©88 90 89 91 93 94 98 98 107 110 110 103.6 ©103.6 104.0 106.7 108.7 110.5 111.5 112.9 111.6 113.4 114.9 115.8 54,946 55,223 55,368 55,703 55,822 55,908 56,010 56,019 56,125 56,195 56,205 56,211 61,899 62,179 62,253 62,247 62,663 62,752 62,620 63,021 63,039 63,007 62,870 63,240 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.8 5.5 3.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 114 115 115 112 114 109 110 108 107 107 107 e!07 115.0 116.4 117.5 118.0 118.2 118.1 119.0 119.0 119.7 119.1 119.8 119.4 56,333 56,458 56,706 56,873 57,060 57,194 57,340 57,344 57,453 57,646 57,580 57,748 63,090 63,227 63,478 63,770 63,690 63,843 64,092 64,069 64,167 64,128 64,319 64,315 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.4 3.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 e!07 e!09 e!08 109 105 104 109 105 107 111 112 118 119.8 120.6 121.9 122.7 124.4 125.6 125.6 125.4 125.7 126.1 126.1 127.0 64,631 65,035 65,207 65,811 065,889 65,549 65,706 65,678 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.3 04.9 5.1 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.8 2.7 02.6 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 03.5 5 3.4 116 117 118 120 118 121 0124 p!23 127.7 128.2 129.0 130.5 131.3 131.6 132.7 0P133.5 (1957-59=100 1961 March April May June 47. Industrial production ©434*2 444.4 450* .*6* 462*5 469* ."l 475*1 478 ' 3 483! 6 1963 March April Jfey June July September October 485.4 487 *9 494*8 502.6 1964 March April May July August September 57,850 58,183 58,327 58,502 58,590 r58,732 r 58, 929 0p58,944 508*6 0513*5 November December Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark. 2 CD « December 1960. 3 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 4 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. 5 Week ended August 29. Prior to April 1962, 27 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by fiTI • the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued 51. Bank ' 52. Personal 57. Final 49. Gross national sales (series debits outside income1 product in NYC, 343 49 minus 21) centers 1 current dollars Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 53. Labor in- 54. Sales of come in mining, retail stores manufacturing, and construction i 55. "Wholesale prices except farm products and foods (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1,786.2 1,755.0 1,785.1 1,781.8 1,829.3 1,824.0 1,839.9 1,832.7 1,848.2 1,904.6 1,903.8 1,916.9 405.0 406.2 410.3 411.6 413.6 416.1 420.0 420.0 421.8 425.4 429.0 431.5 104.2 104.0 104.5 105.4 106.4 107.7 108.0 108.8 108.8 110.6 111.7 112.1 17,942 17,965 17,971 ©17,811 18,003 18,098 18,234 18,373 18,371 18,494 18,775 18,879 101.0 101.1 101.1 100.9 100.9 100.7 100.7 100.8 100.8 100.7 100.8 100.9 2,009.7 1,916.6 1,985.3 2,044.4 2,015.0 2,000.2 2,054.8 2,017.0 1,988.5 2,080.9 2,090.5 2,066.9 431.6 434.9 437.6 440.2 441.0 441.7 443.3 444.1 446.2 447.7 449.5 452.0 112.0 113.0 114.2 115.9 115.4 115.4 116.3 116.1 117.1 116.8 116.6 117.0 18,990 19,139 19,320 19,389 19,585 19,311 19,658 19,671 19,844 19,837 20,112 20,253 100.8 100.7 100.7 100.7 100.9 100.8 100.9 100.8 100.9 100.9 100.8 100.7 2,148.0 2,085.5 2,095.6 2,198.1 2,150.7 2,105.4 2,276.8 2,189.7 2,275.0 2,316.3 2,246.9 2,320.5 454.9 454.1 456.5 457.6 460.2 462.7 464.0 466.1 468.9 472.7 473.8 477.1 117.4 117.4 118.3 118.8 120.1 120.8 120.7 120.7 122.1 122.5 122.2 123.1 20,387 20,374 20,350 20,276 20,200 20,486 20,719 20,666 20,426 20,716 20,558 21,019 100.5 100.5 100.5 ©100.4 100.5 100.8 100.9 100.9 100.8 100.9 100.9 101.0 2,355.1 2,239.9 2,322.5 02,451.3 2,313.0 2,328.8 2,430.9 p2,372.9 479.4 480.5 482.9 486.6 487.8 4B9.3 r491.4 0P493.9 122.7 124.2 124.6 125.9 125.8 126.4 r!26.9 (H]pl27.7 21,000 21,533 21,223 21,392 21,777 r21,773 r21,964 0p22,115 101.1 101.1 101.0 101.1 101.1 101.0 101.2 JHJplOl.2 S 101.2 (Ann . rate , bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1957-59=100) 1961 February March April May June July * ©501.4 505 '.3 513^9 511.8 522.4 518 If 536>!9 531.4 545.5 538.7 March April May 553^4 547.3 July August ......... 559.6 554.0 566 ! 6 561 !2 571.8 568 '! 2 577.4 573.7 587 !£ 533! 6 599.6 592! 6 608 ! 8 606.4 October December • 1962 October November December 1963 February March April May July.... August October • December 1964 March, April May E618.6 July August September October November December 1 2 (D = December 1960. Week ended September 15. ^] 614. 9 28 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*) . Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (jp and current highs, by E] ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. NBER Lagging Indicators 61, Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, total Year and month (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1961 33*85 March April May June July ©33.50 34.70 September • 35.40 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 68. Labor cost 64. Book value per dollar of of mfrs. ' inreal corporate ventories GNP (1957-59=100) Revised1 (1957-59=100) 101.8 102.4 102.3 100.5 100.3 99.5 99.1 98.5 99.1 98.9 99.0 ©98.4 104.9 103.4 103.' 8 ©102.3 (Bil. dol.) 65. Book value 66. Consumer of mfrs. ' in- installment debt ventories of finished goods (Bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 53.7 53.7 53.5 53.4 53.4 ©53.4 53.6 53.9 53.9 54.3 54.7 55.1 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.4 ©18.3 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.8 42,109 42,035 42,041 ©41,867 41,870 41,895 41,903 41,987 42,052 42,221 42,442 42,774 55.4 55.7 56.0 56.1 56.4 56.3 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.4 57.6 57.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.8 19.8 42,960 43,220 43,532 44,017 44,437 44,826 45,200 45,588 45,838 46,206 46,689 47,174 57.9 58.0 58.1 58.3 58.5 58.7 58.9 58.9 59.1 59.3 59.8 60.1 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.6 21.0 21.2 47,659 48,154 48,631 49,152 49,593 50,079 50,588 51,069 51,410 51,941 52,324 52,784 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities* (Percent) 4.97 4*97 4.99 ©4*96 1962 35.70 March April May 36.95 July 38^35 September October November December 37*95 99.4 99.0 98.8 99.8 99.8 0100.4 100.1 100.2 99.6 100.1 99.5 100.1 102 .*9 103*4 103*5 103.2 4*98 5.01 4.99 05.02 1963 January February 36*95 April May 38 '.05 July August SpptAiriher. . . * . . October November ....... 40.00 41.20 99.7 99.6 99.0 93.9 98.8 98.3 98.8 99.5 99.3 98.9 99.1 98.6 104.2 104.8 104.7 104.6 5.00 5*01 5*01 5.00 1964 January February March April May 42.55 ,. . 0r43.50 July ra44.55 97.9 97.8 98.3 97.5 97.5 98.1 98.0 P98.3 104.2 0104.9 September November 1 ra46.15 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. 60.0 60.1 60.3 60.5 060.5 60. L p60.4 (NA) 21.2 21.4 21.4 21.6 21.6 r21.5 0p21.6 (NA) 53,212 53,791 54,315 54,727 55,220 55,590 056,073 (NA) 4*99 4.99 29 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (L) and current highs, by UTI • the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance Year and month 82. Federal 83. Federal 84. Federal cash surplus cash payments cash reto public ceipts from (+), or deficit (-) public 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement 91. Defense Department obligations, total 92. Military 99. New prime con- orders, tract awards defense to U.S. bus- products iness firms (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 95. Surplus (+), or deficit (-), Fed. income and product account (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1961 torch April May June July September October 95.5 95.4 107.4 100.6 110.9 106.5 97.7 112.7 104.1 109.8 106.5 104.3 94.2 94.1 92.6 97.0 99.8 97.7 91.2 101.0 99.2 99.5 101.3 101.7 -1.3 -1.3 -14.8 -3.6 -11.1 -8.8 -6.5 -11.7 -4.9 -10.3 -5.2 -2.6 115.1 108.8 107.4 110.1 106.8 108.9 116.3 111.6 109.9 118.6 114.7 115.2 101.7 101.3 98.1 107.8 109.9 104.4 111.2 110.1 107.6 107.8 109.0 109.0 -13.4 -7.5 -9.3 -2.3 +3.1 -4.5 -5.1 -1.5 -2.3 -10.8 -5.7 -6.2 115.3 109.2 114.5 117.2 115.8 110.2 124.7 118.1 121.9 122.3 114.2 122.7 108.6 110.6 108.9 110.2 112.2 111.9 114.9 114.7 113.1 115.1 113.3 118.5 -6.7 +1.4 -5.6 -7.0 -3.6 +1.7 -9.8 -3.4 -8.8 -7.2 -0.9 -4.2 128.6 117.2 120.3 123.2 110.3 120.0 126.9 117.1 114.8 123.4 115.3 126.6 105.1 114.4 116.4 110.0 -13.8 +6.2 -5.0 +3.4 -5.2 -5.6 -10.5 -7.1 -6.0 -4^7 -3^4 -2!6 1,277 1,555 1,230 1,047 1,220 1,390 1,181 2,278 1,933 1,354 1,286 1,773 3,641 4,065 3,537 3,381 3,727 3,893 3,784 5,344 4,874 4,296 4,121 4,653 1,944 2,153 1,757 1,910 1,530 1,993 2,087 2,232 2,158 2,651 2,379 2,281 1.45 2.00 1.48 1.85 1.82 1.73 2.11 1.96 1.92 1.97 1.86 1.82 1,718 1,319 1,435 1,885 1,142 1,246 1,731 1,240 1,044 1,684 1,818 1,158 4,434 4,181 4,230 4,486 4,059 4,024 4,864 4,300 3,928 4,553 4,952 3,974 3,073 2,135 2,225 2,062 1,887 1,930 2,017 2,149 2,111 2,983 2,734 1,984 1.99 2.05 2.11 2.24 2.24 2.08 2.07 1.94 1.88 2.09 1.70 2.53 1,565 1,325 1,258 1,304 1,530 1,298 1,255 1,512 1,221 2,038 1,125 1,182 4,642 4,253. 3,905 4,108 4,601 4,378 4,834 4,497 4,215 5,176 4,138 4,090 2,343 2,571 2,168 1,973 2,250 2,125 2,506 2,704 2,688 2,224 1,566 2,041 2.89 2.09 2.42 1.97 2.40 1.90 2.40 2.36 2.47 1.92 1.97 1.48 1,071 2,067 1,030 1,516 2,192 pl,015 1,691 (NA) 4,370 5,484 3,731 4,592 4,941 P4,211 5,274 (NA) 2,337 2,854 1,603 2,529 2,465 1,663 (NA) 2.67 2.40 2.18 2.37 2.48 r2.34 r3.30 p2.07 1962 February March April May June July October 1963 January. February April May July August September ...... October November 1964 January February. March April Mav July August October November December. -4 .*4 -l'.6 -2.9 -4.5 -4.8 -1.0 -6.7 +6.*6 -2.4 -9.2 30 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continwed Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by El ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued 85. Change in total U.S. money supply 93. Free reserves* Year and month (Mil. dol.) (Percent) 98. Change in money supply and time deposits (Percent) 112. Change, business loans 110. Total private borrowing 111. Corporate gross savings (Annual rate, million dollars) (Annual rate, (Annual rate, million dollars) billion dollars) 1961 January March April May June July.. . . September October December +696 +517 +486 +551 +453 +549 +530 +537 +547 +442 +517 +419 +0.07 +0.28 +0.28 +0.21 +0.28 +0.21 0.00 +0.21 +0.42 +0.28 +0.55 +0.28 +0.37 +0.79 +0.46 +0.46 +0.64 +0.55 +0.45 +0.50 +0.58 +0.53 +0.71 +0.44 +555 +434 +382 +441 +440 +391 +440 +439 +375 +419 +473 +268 0.00 +0.14 +0.21 +0.27 -0.20 +0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.14 +0.34 +0.48 +0.41 +0.57 +0.91 +0.91 +0.64 +0.13 +0.51 +0.38 +0.34 +0.38 +0.71 +0.87 +0.95 +375 +301 +269 +313 +247 +138 +161 +133 +91 +94 +33 +209 +0.27 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27 +0.40 +0.53 +0.13 +0.26 +0.46 +0.79 -0.20 +0.69 +0.69 +0.76 +0.48 +0.48 +0.63 +0.71 +0.66 +0.54 +0.73 +1.15 +0.34 +171 +91 +98 +162 +78 +118 r+132 p+77 +0.39 0.00 +0.26 r+0.19 rO.OO +0.71 +0.71 p+0.32 +0.83 +0.45 +0.37 r+0.37 r+0.37 +0.81 +0.73 p+0.62 29,352 26,580 33,864 32,072 41,844 32,308 42,632 37,304 44,848 36,224 51,340 36,668 46,344 35,108 51, 416 38,628 46,188 37,376 54,824 39,700 55,208 41,920 61,556 42,328 56,352 40,920 (NA) (NA) +0.54 -0.77 +0.92 -0.37 -0.31 -1.50 +2.18 +1.00 +0.56 +0.01 -0.01 +1.72 1962 January • March April May June July August September October +2.90 +1.51 +2.23 +2.09 +2.09 +2.77 +2.66 +3.85 +2.82 +2.82 +2.28 +0.95 1963 March April ffey June July s^pt.^mher ...... October +2.26 +1.01 +1.01 +1.57 +3.18 +1.74 +1.97 +2.03 +2.94 +4.67 +6.10 +5.34 1964 January February April May July September October November December +2.26 +3.05 +0.05 +1.81 +5.60 +3.88 +3.84 +4.75 31 Basic Data Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by ftTI ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued Year and month 113. Change, consumer installment debt (Annual rate, billion dollars) 114. Treasury bill rate* (Percent) 115. Treasury bond yields* (Percent) 116. Corporate bond yields* (Percent) 117. Municipal bond yields* (Percent) 118. Mortgage yields* (Percent) 1961 March April ffey July August. ........ October November December 1962 March April May July October December 1963 January ........ March April ffey July September October -0.36 -0.89 +0.07 -2.09 +0.04 +0.30 +0.10 +1.01 +0.78 +2.03 +2.65 +3.98 2.30 2.41 2.42 2.33 2.29 2.36 2.27 2.40 2.30 2.35 2.46 2.62 3.89 3.81 3.78 3.80 3.73 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.02 3.98 3.98 4.06 4.63 4.43 4.36 4.56 4.61 4.73 4.74 4.75 4.69 4.45 4-48 4.56 3.40 3.31 3.45 3.50 3.43 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.53 3.42 3.41 3.47 6.00 5.89 5.82 5.77 5.74 5.72 5.68 5.68 5.69 5.70 5.70 5.69 +2.23 +3.12 +3.74 +5.82 +5.04 +4.67 +4.49 +4.66 +3.00 +4.42 +5.80 +5.82 2.75 2.75 2.72 2.74 2.69 2.72 2.94 2.84 2.79 2.75 2.80 2.86 4.08 4.09 4.01 3.89 3.88 3.90 4.02 3.98 3.94 3.89 3.87 3.87 4.55 4.54 4.42 4.31 4.26 4.30 4.41 4.39 4.28 4.27 4.23 4.28 3.34 3.21 3.14 3.06 3.11 3.26 3.28 3.23 3.11 3.02 3.04 3.07 5.69 5.68 5.65 5.64 5.60 5.59 5.58 5.57 5.56 5.55 5.54 5.53 +5.82 +5.94 +5.72 +6.25 +5.29 +5.83 +6.11 +5.77 +4-09 +6.37 +4.60 +5.52 2.91 2.92 2.90 2.91 2.92 3.00 3.14 3.32 3.38 3.45 3.52 3.52 3.89 3.92 3.93 3.97 3.97 4.00 4.01 3.99 4.04 4.07 4,11 4.H 4.22 4.25 4.26 4.35 4.35 4.32 4.34 4.33 4.40 4.36 4.42 4.49 3.10 3.15 3.05 3.10 3.11 3.21 3.22 3.13 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.27 5.52 5.48 5.47 5.46 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 +5.14 +6.95 +6.29 +4.94 +5.92 +4.44 +5.80 (NA) 3.53 3.53 3.55 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.51 4.15 4.14 4.18 4.20 4.16 4.13 4.13 4.H 4.49 4.38 4.45 4.49 4.48 4.49 4.43 4.43 3.22 3.14 3.28 3.28 3.20 3.20 3.18 3.19 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.46 5.46 1964 March April May July Alienist September October November December 32 Basic Data Toble 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESEHT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs, by ED; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14-, 15, 40, 43, and 4-5). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued Year and month 86. Exports 87. General imports, excluding military aid total shipments, total (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus 87) 89. Excess, 81. Consumer receipts (+) prices or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 94- Construction contracts, total value 96. Manufacturers ' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Bil. dol.) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (Bil. dol.) 103.9 104.0 104.0 103.9 103.9 104.1 104.4 104.4 104.5 104.5 104.5 104.5 108 95 104 103 102 111 110 116 103 114 116 119 43.01 42.94 42.52 42.88 42.95 43.06 43.43 43.85 43.86 44.11 44.52 45.17 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.4 105.4 105.3 105.5 105.9 105.8 105.8 105.9 115 119 131 121 117 120 117 118 113 117 123 138 45.80 46.42 45.75 45.41 44.95 44.58 44.33 43.73 43.37 43.58 43.18 44.09 106.1 106.1 106.2 106.3 106.4 106.7 106.9 107.1 106.9 107.0 107.2 107.7 121 130 118 125 144 135 126 132 128 146 144 148 45.06 45.74 46.68 47.53 47.86 47.28 46.74 46.70 47.07 47.17 47.08 46.68 107.8 107.6 107.7 107.9 108.0 103.1 108.1 (NA) 147 143 140 138 138 138 140 (NA) 47.07 47.64 47.80 48.84 49.22 r50.04 r51.46 P51.57 1961 torch. . April May July October, ....... November 1,622.7 1,711.6 1,750.7 1,661.5 1,585.1 1,581.9 1,688.5 1,688.9 1,678.4 1,779.8 1,733.1 1,724.8 1,161.4 1,149.8 1,162.9 1,152.0 1,152.9 1,173.8 1,379.3 1,253.6 1,262.0 1,300.1 1,308.5 1,314.5 +461.3 +561.8 +587.8 +509.5 +432.2 +408.1 +309.2 +435.3 +416.4 +479.7 +424.6 +410.3 1,668.3 1,809.3 1,672.0 1,795.4 1,761.7 1,835.6 1,748.3 1,702.5 1,907.9 1,542.8 1,724.6 1,838.7 1,326.5 1,319.8 1,341.7 1,365.0 1,404.1 1,350.7 1,346.6 1,345.9 1,471.4 1,312.1 1,424.9 1,376.5 +341.8 +489.5 +330.3 +430.4 +357.6 +484.9 +401.7 +356.6 +436.5 +230.7 +299.7 +462.2 984.8 2,117.5 1,960.4 1,912.7 1,892.6 1,784.7 1,823.0 1,894.6 1,979.6 1,946.4 1,944.6 2,049.4 1,091.6 1,497.4 1,486.7 1,417.2 1,420.2 1,420.5 1,457.5 1,508.3 1,450.4 1,458.8 1,471.9 1,480.0 -106.8 +620.1 +473.7 +495.5 +472.4 +364.2 +365.5 +386.3 +529.2 +487.6 +472.7 +569.4 2,037.3 2,028.7 2,077.5 2,046.0 2,052.1 2,004.3 2,111.4 (NA) 1,421.8 1,445.3 1,522.9 1,542.1 1,548.1 1,505.5 1,589.6 (NA) +615.5 +583.4 +554.6 +503.9 +504.0 +498.8 +521.8 (NA) -486 1 U7 -700 -1,231 6 '.68 6!55 6.58 6.53 1962 March April May June July August September October. ...... «• December 1963 January February April May June July October November ppttPTriheT, ,,.,,, -748 -440 -334 -681 -1,062 -1,295 -153 -134 6\S2 6\Bl 6.87 7.29 7!o6 7.53 8.02 8.75 1964 February. March April May June July August -75 -789 October November December 1 Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States. B\96 (NA) Basic Data 33 Table 2.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSIKESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs, by 5D ; the reverse is true for inverse series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 4-0, 43, and 45). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. International comparisons of industrial production Year and month 1961 March April May July Aueust September ...... November Pecemb^f*.f T - » , . 1962 January. ....... February March April May June July October 47. United States, industrial production 123. Canada, 122. United Kingdom, industrial production industrial production 121. OECD,1 European countries, industrial production 125. West Germany, industrial production 126. France, 127. Italy, industrial industrial production production 128. Japan, industrial production (1957-59= 100) Revised2 104 104 104 107 109 110 112 113 112 113 115 116 (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) (1957-59= 100) 104 105 105 107 107 109 109 111 112 112 114 114 109 110 110 111 110 113 113 111 110 109 109 109 117 119 119 120 119 120 120 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 126 124 121 122 121 124 123 124 128 115 116 116 116 117 117 118 118 119 119 119 122 130 134 134 134 136 136 138 137 140 145 149 148 155 154 158 159 162 165 169 172 172 175 176 177 115 116 118 118 118 118 119 119 120 119 120 119 113 115 116 116 117 118 118 119 119 119 120 120 108 110 111 110 113 113 114 115 110 113 110 122 124 123 124 125 124 125 126 127 127 128 127 126 129 125 128 129 130 130 131 132 132 133 132 122 123 124 123 124 123 125 125 126 128 128 126 149 151 149 151 153 147 151 149 150 153 158 160 182 178 181 181 182 180 179 180 181 179 179 178 120 121 122 123 124 126 126 125 126 126 126 127 120 121 122 122 123 123 121 123 125 126 128 131 110 111 113 114 115 115 116 118 117 120 121 121 127 126 127 130 131 132 132 130 133 135 136 136 129 128 132 133 133 139 133 135 135 139 141 137 127 125 116 129 133 134 r!29 r!29 136 137 136 138 158 155 161 165 165 166 163 166 171 171 173 170 179 184 184 191 190 191 203 202 207 211 214 217 128 128 129 130 131 132 133 p!34 133 134 133 r!35 132 p!33 (NA) 123 123 123 122 122 p!22 (NA) 138 138 r!39 r!41 r!41 p!40 (NA) ia 140 139 139 141 140 141 (NA) 172 rl69 173 169 166 (NA) 217 226 223 224 r228 235 p233 (NA) in (1957-59= 100) 1963 February March April May July August Sep-tAnjher. ..... October November pe^erobeT*. ...... 1964 January February. March April Jfey July August September October November December ^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. 2 H3 146 r!45 r!46 r!46 p!46 (NA) Analytical Measures 34 Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates — Number of months "before benchmark date that high was reached 3d month before business cycle peak Business cycle peak Nov. 1948 July 1953 ffey 1960 July 1957 Aug. 1948 Apr. 1953 Apr. 1957 Feb. 1960 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 7 1 3 1 12 1 4 1 22 1 ... 2 2 2 months 3 4 11 1 14 2 1 3 2 1 Percent of series high on benchmark date. 2 19 16 1 1 1 4 1 23 0 1 1 *i i 1 2 3 3 11 27 3 6 11 55 1 4 23 0 23 0 X 18 0 2 19 21 12 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 23 4 2 2 3 1 3 *18 0 20 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 3 4 1 2 Benchmark month Percent of series high on benchmark date. Number of months before benchmark date that high was- reached 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 3 3 5 11 9 11 27 11 45 2 2 3 2 3 11 27 4 4 11 36 May 1948 Jan. 1953 Nov. 1959 Jan. 1957 6 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 2 3 3 17 1 1 1 19 16 23 4 4 2 2 2 1 *18 6 2 1 1 1 4 4 4 2 4 1 4 4 11 36 Current expansion 6th month before business cycle peak NBER LEADING Percent of series high on benchmark date. 1 2 1 Aug. 1964 INDICATORS 8 2 1 1 i 1 2 2 23 9 July 1964 June 1964 toy 1964 10 1 1 10 1 4 1 1 1 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 2 4 23 22 23 9 23 17 1 1 "4 5 16 31 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 1 1 .•• 4 2 5 months 4 i 2 Percent of series high on benchmark date. 1 5 2 3 6 5 3 11 45 11 55 11 27 2 3 11 27 3 8 11 73 1 4 6 11 55 1 1 1 "9 11 82 2 7 11 64 All quarterly series, 1 leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted from1 the distribution. 5 series were not available. 2 2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks were disregarded in this distribution. 35 Analytical Measures DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT NBER Leading Indicators (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (July) (Apr.) P T (May) (Feb.) P T Percent Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.—21 Indus. (3-mo. interva D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.--36 indus (5-mo. interval) D 11. Newly approved capital appropriations17 indus. ,NICB *3-Q intervaI,*-*-*!-Q interva D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-700 cos. (1-Q interval) 75 50 D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—82 indus. (3-mo. interval) 25 D23. Industrial materials prices—13 indus. mtls. (5-mo. interval) 100 50 0 D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.—47 areas 'inverted. 5-mo. interval) 100 50 0 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 36 Analytical Measures DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO P R E S E N T - - C o n . NBER R o u g h l y C o i n c i d e n t I n d i c a t o r s (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) P (Aug.) T (May) (Feb.) P T (July) (Apr.) P T Percent D41. Employees in nonagr. esTablishments--30 indus. (1-mo. interval) 100 50 0 D47. Industrial production-24 indus. (]-mo. interval) -, 100 D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods--23 indus. (5-mo. interval) 100 50 0 D54, Sales of retail stores—24 types of stores (5-mo. interval) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 37 Analytical Measures CHART 3 b DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT (Nov.) P (Oct.) T (July) (July) (Apr.) P T (Aug.) (May) (Feb.) P T I ill D35. Net sales, all mfrs.--ttOQ cos. (percent--4-Q interval) TOO 50 -* o D36 New orders, dur. goods mfrs.--400 cos. (percent--4-Q interval) 100 50 0 D48. Carloadings—19 infrd. commodity groups (percent--4-Q interval) 100 ~\ 50 0 A D48. Change in total carloadings (millions of cars—4-Q interval) +.5 Si/ D61. New plant and equipment expend.—17-22 indus. (percent-- 1-Q interval) 100 50 0 mi 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 Data are centered within intervals. Latest data areas follows: Series number and date of survey D35, D36 (July 1964) D48 (June 1964) D61 (August 1964) See "How to Read Charts 1, 2, and 3," page 5. Latest interval shown Actual Anticipated 2nd Q 1963 - 2nd Q 1964 4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964 3rdQ 1962- 3rd Q 1963 3rdQ 1963 - 3rd 0 1964 IstQ 1964- 2ndQ 1964 3rdQ 1964 - 4th Q 1964 1962 1963 1964 38 Analytical Measures Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34> which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. NBER Leading indexes D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (36 industries) Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing (21 industries) Year and month 1-month interval 3-month interval 1-month interval 5-month interval 1961 jferch April May July October November 95.2 71.4 54.8 81.0 45.2 90.5 64.3 73.8 38.1 85.7 66.7 23.8 66.7 95.2 71.4 69.0 90.5 78.6 88.1 54.8 97.6 85.7 81.0 26.2 33.3 48.6 66.7 62.5 63.9 66.7 36.1 63.9 47.2 55.6 61.1 58.3 52.8 72.2 72.2 72.2 77.8 83.3 66.7 69.4 62.5 72.2 70.8 80.6 14.3 73.8 73.8 76.2 21.4 28.6 35.7 47.6 81.0 7.1 59.5 59.5 21.4 59.5 88.1 78.6 40.5 21.4 21.4 59.5 35.7 38.1 31.0 73.8 63.9 52.8 36.1 51.4 56.9 37.5 56.9 36.1 48.6 68.1 50.0 47.2 63.9 68.1 66.7 41.7 48.6 37.5 36.1 52.8 52.8 52.8 75.0 77.8 52.4 73.8 40.5 16.7 81.0 47.6 45.2 42.9 66.7 57.1 21.4 83.3 71.4 64.3 31.0 52.4 54.8 78.6 47.6 59.5 64.3 47.6 66.7 7.1 63.9 43.1 54.2 63.9 52.8 47.2 51.4 52.8 52.8 69.4 33.3 62.5 66.7 75.0 73.6 55.6 56.9 50.0 41.7 45.8 62.5 54.2 69.4 77.8 0.0 85.7 28.6 78.6 35.7 21.4 r52.4 p69.0 85.7 50.0 92.9 40.5 r33.3 r33.3 P54.8 55.6 44.4 58.3 61.1 44.4 r50.0 r59.7 P37.5 66.7 72.2 61.1 r58.3 r75.0 P59.7 Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations, NICE (17 industries) 1-quarter interval 3 -quarter interval Revised x Revised1 53 59 59 65 '?6 71 47 65 65 41 *32 82 *82 *53 59 74 47 53 59 *53 *59 *65 53 71 47 71 1962 March April ffey August PefiemhpT,.T 1963 March April May July August » S^pt^Triber. - T T . October 1964 February. ...... March April ffey. * July.... 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. 71 Analytical Measures 39 Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1*1 TO PRESENT-Continued Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34> which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA, not available. NBER Leading indexes — Continued D34. Profits, D19. Index- of stock prices, mfg., FNCB 500 common stocks (around 700 (80 industries)1 corporations) Tear and month 1-quarter interval 1-month interval 3-month interval D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month interval D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas) 5-month interval 1-month interval 5-month interval 1961 47 March April * ... "60 fey July August SeptemberT T - * - October Novepjher ,.».... *58 *56 87.0 96.3 86.0 72.6 81.1 40.2 42.1 81.1 39.6 45.7 87.8 56.1 96.3 96.3 95.1 93.9 70.7 57.3 57.9 54.9 55.5 62.2 72.6 52.4 42.3 76.9 84.6 73.1 53.8 46.2 53.8 46.2 61.5 38.5 15.4 61.5 61.5 76.9 76.9 76.9 61.5 61.5 46.2 42.3 46.2 53.8 69.2 53.8 59.6 31.9 80.9 40.4 48.9 53.5 51.1 61.7 46.8 78.7 74.5 23.4 57.4 59.6 61.7 66.0 68.1 66.0 61.7 93.6 93.6 68.1 63.8 91.5 26.2 74.4 48.2 9.1 1.2 1.2 67.7 78.0 34.8 6.7 98.8 84.8 39.6 37.8 32.9 0.0 1.2 1.2 8.5 67.1 31.1 72.6 90.2 98.8 76.9 38.5 38.5 15.4 42.3 26.9 23.1 34.6 61.5 53.8 84.6 66.7 46.2 61.5 23.1 23.1 23.1 15.4 30.8 23.1 53.8 66.7 75.0 69.2 57.4 83.0 46.8 46.8 40.4 14.9 68.1 57.4 44.7 46.8 72.3 27.7 74.5 51.1 66.0 31.9 21.3 34.0 31.9 38.3 78.7 48.9 22.3 63.8 97.6 79.3 43.8 91.2 85.0 51.9 29.4 75.0 76.9 44.9 44.9 68.4 97.6 93.8 91.2 90.0 88.0 62.5 54.4 60.2 74.4 56.4 50.6 68.4 58.3 58.3 50.0 38.5 50.0 61.5 53.8 53.8 53.8 76.9 69.2 53.8 61.5 61.5 58.3 58.3 46.2 42.3 46.2 53.8 73.1 76.9 76.9 84.6 23.4 85.1 31.9 44.7 48.9 70.2 42.6 48.9 44.7 61.7 31.9 34.0 69.1 48.9 48.9 85.1 54.3 63.8 68.1 70.2 40.4 31.9 68.1 48.9 74.7 64.7 78.2 75.6 52.6 35.3 89.7 41.0 73.7 81.0 82.1 77.9 57.7 70.5 61.5 61.5 57.7 38.5 61.5 38.5 50.0 65.4 61.5 2 61.5 69.2 61.5 53.8 53.8 61.5 61.5 2 46, 2 85.1 12.8 66.0 75.5 51.1 51.1 59.6 57.4 51.1 83.0 78.7 55.3 70.2 76.6 1962 54 February March April MEIV June July Sept-eT^her r October November ....... *47 '48 *56 1963 50 February March April *59 May Jiilv *56 August October November December 1964 55 57 March April May July 60 October. ....... lr The diffusion index is based on 82 components, January 1961 to February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. 18 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 23 components, are shown in the direction-of-change table (table 6). 2 Average for September 15, 16, and 17. Analytical Measures 40 Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES FOR 11 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT-Continued Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are placed on the 3d month and 5-month figures are placed on the 4th month of span; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 3-quarter figures are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. NBER Roughly Coincident indexes Year and month D41. Number of employees D47. Index of industrial in nonagricultural production e s tabl i shmen t s (24 industries) (30 industries) 1-month interval 3-month interval July August October November 3-month interval Revised1 D58. Index of wholesale prices (23 manufacturing industries) 5-month interval 5-month interval 1-month interval 58.3 41.7 60.4 22.9 79.2 77.1 60.4 68.8 39.6 83.3 87.5 60.4 43.8 43.8 64.6 62.5 64.6 56.3 83.3 87.5 95.8 81.3 83.3 83.3 39.1 47.8 41.3 65.2 45.7 37.0 50.0 56.5 60.9 39.1 47.8 56.5 43.5 34.8 39.1 43.5 52.2 41.3 43.5 47.8 54.3 45.7 50.0 60.9 1 -mo nth interval 45.0 33.3 61.7 56.7 86.7 88.3 70.0 70.0 56.7 71.7 81.7 63.3 15.0 40.0 43.3 78.3 85.0 90.0 90.0 66.7 80.0 80.0 78.3 76.7 56.3 50.0 62.5 70.8 72.9 91.7 77.1 72.9 54.2 87.5 83.3 75.0 Revised1 45.8 64.6 81.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 97.9 79.2 85.4 87.5 91.7 62.5 55.0 80.0 71.7 86.7 71.7 55.0 56.7 46.7 36.7 45.0 33.3 43.3 78.3 88.3 88.3 80,0 73.3 65.0 51.7 38.3 35.0 26.7 28.3 43.3 25.0 87.5 87.5 75.0 64.6 66.7 52.1 58.3 83.3 29.2 68.8 35.4 56.3 77.1 87.5 87.5 72.9 75.0 68.8 85.4 58.3 66.7 50.0 68.8 58.3 50.0 70.8 68.8 58.3 18.8 83.3 75.0 64.6 39.6 87.5 66.7 85.4 93.8 89.6 70.8 81.3 79.2 70.8 54.2 95.8 95.8 81.3 79.2 69.6 43.5 52.2 58.7 45.7 43.5 39.1 41.3 54.3 34.8 45.7 39.1 54.3 63.0 63.0 58.7 52.2 47.8 43.5 30.4 41.3 34.8 23.9 30.4 63.3 48.3 83.3 66.7 85.0 61.7 75.0 48.3 45.0 65.0 41.7 70.0 53.3 65.0 71.7 83.3 78.3 75.0 60.0 50.0 48.3 40.0 63.3 48.3 79.2 66.7 83.3 54.2 83.3 75.0 72.9 68.8 58.3 64.6 50.0 77.1 66.7 83.3 85.4 91.7 83.3 87.5 89.6 77.1 72.9 70.8 77.1 68.8 50.0 54.2 52.1 41.7 52.1 75.0 66.7 64.6 25.0 58.3 54.2 77.1 81.3 56.3 45.8 58.3 62.5 75.0 66.7 70.8 54.2 68.8 58.3 87.5 39.1 43.5 37.0 41.3 58.7 63.0 47.8 58.7 58.7 76.1 69.6 60.9 34.8 28.3 45.7 50.0 52.2 52.2 69.6 73.9 71.7 69.6 73.9 71.7 43.3 83.3 76.7 63.3 60.0 r70.0 r76.7 P43.3 73.3 75.0 85.0 80.0 r78.3 r80.0 P68.3 58.3 79.2 70.8 83.3 70.8 62.5 72.9 P75.0 83.3 83.3 91.7 87.5 79.2 83.3 P75.0 43.8 70.8 52.1 52.1 66.7 r66.7 r52.1 P56.2 81.2 79.2 81.2 r89.6 r79.2 P54.2 58.7 63.0 45.7 63.0 43.5 45.7 r67.4 p65.2 67.4 69.6 54.3 56.5 r52.2 p60.9 1961 February. ...... March April May 1-month interval D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores) 1962 February March April May June July October 1963 March April May July August October 1964 March April May. July August October November •"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii. Analytical Measures 41 Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1961 TO PRESENT Percent of series components rising. Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Year and month D35. Net sales, manufa c tur e s (800 companies) 4-quarter interval Actual D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) 4-quarter interval Anticipated Anticipated Actual D6l. New plant and equipment expenditures (16 industries) 1-quarter interval D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured commodity groups) 4-quarter interval Actual Antici- Change in pated total (000) Actual Anticipated 1961 March April May June July AugustSeptember October 1962 January March April May June July *72 *82 72 78 36.8 89*.5 -28 *74 *83 *73 78 68.4 73.7 +79 *82 *88 *82 *86 r73 .'7 89^5 +125 *81 *86 78 82 63.2 89^5 +62 'so 88 *76 84 57.9 94.7 -67 *76 80 *74 *74 63 \2 89^5 -96 72 74 71 *70 42.1 68.4 -66 *74 *82 *76 *76 63 '.2 63.2 +28 *76 80 77 *76 73.7 78.9 r+39 *74 *80 *76 '76 (NA) 68 '.4 +44 *82 *84 *82 80 78!9 +39 "8*4 85 82 84 73.7 -35 *87 *84 68.4 r+16 *86 *84 October November 28.1 37.5 46.9 53.1 56.2 62!5 59!Z 65!6 65.6 62.5 68.8 68.8 65^6 65!6 46.9 6s!8 40.6 50.0 65 '.6 75.0 75.0 71^9 71.9 75.0 71.9 50.0 62! 5 50.*0 1963 February March April May July September t T . t T T 1964 February March April May June July October Pep-einher » » - - » » T r75.0 6B.B Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries 1-month spans 1964 r-t 3 "-a 1 c-J >-3 All durable goods industries. ...... Primary metals: . • Fabricated metal products: Hardware, structural metal and wire prod Special industry machinery* Electrical machinery: rH 3 *~3 ex & t > O 2 1 +-> 8 o c a so1 1a ,0 FH h Radio and TV + + + + 4- + + + + 4- + 4- + + + + + + + + + + + - + + + 4- 44+ + + Furniture total b D f X - H + + + + + - + + - + - + + + + - + + - + + + + + + 4+ + 0 + 0 - + + + + + + + + 4- + + + + + 4+ + + + + + 4- + + + + + + + tlQ (^ -P > 0 3 <tj 1 ^H erf g <D 01 1 fn CX <«J 0 O 1 >» Jd S O S 1 i 3 "-a 0) Q 1 nH ^ ^ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 t U D P n - P > O f l r £ ) ^ l ? H t > s f l r H ^ ( D O O C D o j t D c d a , ^ ^ ^ ^ O ^ O S Q h i p i H S - ^ S 1 - ^ 1 - ^ 57 50 42 46 62 54 69 78 67 72 6l 58 75 60 - + + + - + + o + + + + + - + + + + + + + - + + + + _ + + + _ f + + - - + - o + + + + 0 - - - - + + + 0 + + + + + 4 - + _ _ + + _ + -+ - + + + + 4 - + - _ + + + + + + + + + _ _ + - + 4 - + + + + + + 0 s + + o - - - - + + + 4 - + _ + 4- - + - + + * - - + + - + -f-f _ _ + + + + + + + _ + - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + 4- + + + _ + - + 0 - - + + - h + - 4- - o + + - - + + + 0 - + + + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + 4- + - _ + + - + + - + + - - + + _ + + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census mined. *Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. S ^ 3 ^ ^ i t > s a r H f i D a < - P > 0 c d d > K j f t c d ^ ^ ^ ( D O O ( D i - D t ^ S ^ S ^ ^ ^ C O O S Q 4- + + + 4 - + + 4 - - - + + + _ _ + ^ + + + + - + + + + rH 3 i-D 1 ,0 <D ^ + + + _ _ + - - + + - + _ - + + + + + + + + + 0 _ + + o + > - + - + + + + + - + + + + 0 + + + + + 4- + Aircraft parts Shipbuilding and railroad equipment* Other transportation equipment rH 4- + + + + + + + + 0 Other electrical machinery* Transportation equipment: C £i fi i § i iI JH Z>>1 ZC1 i—31I $>b1 f l C81 X -&P1 af>1 c £> PH cd 1-3 & s ^j- S Z 2 3 & 8 £ + Electrical industrial apparatus* K>> 1964 1963 51 53 53 69 33 62 56 44 58 61 44 50 60 38 Machinery, except electrical: Internal combustion engines* Farm machinery and equipment. . . . . . . .. Construction, mining, and material handling*. bfl :3 < Sep-Oct 1963 36 industry components 5-month spans + - - - - __+ - + + !::::;:: i++ +++ - + + + + - + - 4 - + + + _ + - - + - before the direction of change is deter- n> Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks 3-month spans 1-month spans 1963 ^1 51 r-l C O, <U CO 1963 1964 23 industry components 1 -H> O O i) cL 3 $> 1• ai •H > 8 £ c i o a / D ^ ^ i > i C : < - l t l O P 4 - H > 0 | ~ 3 b - i ! E l < 3 j ) i i l ~ 3 > ~ 3 29 75 77 45 45 68 75 65 78 76 53 35 90 41 Coal bituminous Dr*U£s Steel Metal fabricating • . - • 4- 4- 4- 4- 44- 4444- 44444- 44- 4- 4444- 4- 444 44t- - _ 44- - < i J C O O 2 ; bO 2 OU -P > 0 bD Oi ft >s C r-» <3 S *-3 »~3 ^ CO JH ^ > j p r 4 b p D , - P c j O f l J t r t f l J t r i C X . Q l J J J f l ) O 2 : Q > - 3 U < S < i 5 S | - 3 | - 3 < 5 j C O 4-4-4- 4- - - - + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - i - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 4- 4- 4- 4- 4- 44- _ - _ _ _ 4 - - - - _ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4i- 4- 4- 4- - 44 4- 4- 4- i- 4- - - 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - f- 4- - - 4- - 4- 4- > 0 62 54 60 74 56 51 68 74 81 82 78 58 70 62 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- C,Q a> b O <p 1 >1 O1 C1 4 31 £1 - ( 1£ - t 1> i C1 r H1 h j 1D C 1X i ^ i i i %&&%£233$>8£& -»-> 44444- + 4 - - - - 4 4 - - ... Electronics ........ . . ....... Automobiles Radio and television broadcasters 4- ... - - .... .. 0 4- 44- 44- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4- 4 - f 4- 4- 4-4- - 4- 4 - 4- 4- 4 4- 444 + 4- 4- f4 4- t4- 4- 44- - 4- 444- 4 4444- h — 4- 4- — — 4- — + + - + - + + 4 - 4 - 4 - t- _ + _ 0 - - + 4- + 4 40 + 4- + + + + + _ _ + _ 4-" 4- 4- 44- 44- 44- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- -h 4- 4- 4- 4- 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - _ _ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + + _ _ _ 4 4 - 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - _ _ . _ + 4 . 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 4- 4- 4- 4- - c= *-t o - 4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted. ^The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 42 Based on 80 industries to August 1963; on 79 industries, September 1963 to March 1964; and on 78 components thereafter. rt ^ O ... - Lifg insurance 4- r-l 2 &£%&323$>8£& 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 C , Q ?H f-\ > s C i —i b D C X - H > 1964 Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices 1-month spans 1963 5-month spans 1964 8 1 3 i ex 5 5 3 1 C ,0 ?H ^ 1 0 1 C 1 ,0 1 £n <l) § 1 Q ed ^ cu fn (d S ? ? I 3 £ l <^ 1 1 I rH "& co S ^ 54 54 54 77 69 54 62 58 38 62 38 50 65 62 6? 4+ 4- o + + - + ,+ + 0 4- Lead scrap (ib. ) Tin (ib. ) - - + 4 + - 44 + . . +• -»--*- + - o o 1 tf Pu J CD tj CO O - - t > o CD Z CD D 1-D C O r J £ > ^ H ^ > » C H r - ) t l D r i u - P > 0 Q ) r f A r f 3 ^ ^ C D O O C D t i^ D ^ a - ^p >^ o ^« o x i jf C H f D H ^S g rQ H ^ ^ ^ J Q ) o o < D a J ( D c d C X c d P ^ < 3 j C O O ^ Q ^ C n S - = J l S 1 - 3 H 3 46 42 46 54 73 77 77 85 69 62 54 54 62 62 46 4 - - 4 4- 4 4- 4- 4 4 - - 4 4- -t- 4- 4-4- + - - - 4 4- + + + + 44 + - + -4 4 ^ - - - g O + . -P 0 O 1964 !, i ! 5- ti3 4 - Wool tops (ib ) - + 0 44 - + * "*" Burlap (yd. ) - - 1 Al-1,-1. 0 CX Un-r* Hfl Feb-Jul r-H 1963 Sep-Oct 13 industrial materials components O + 4 4 4 4- + 0 + - 0 + 4-4-4+ 4-4- - 4 - - - * + + ^ «n 4 Rosin (100 Ib. ) Rubber (ib. ) Tallow (ib. ) + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. direction of change is determined. •"•Average for September 15, 16, and 17. 4- t H*« - 4 +• +• 4- 4- __ - + 4-4--l- + 4- JL + 4 - + * + - - - - - 4 4 4 4 - 4 - 4-4-4- 4 - 4 - - - 4 4 4 + Series components are seasonally adjusted (except for all-industry totals) by the Bureau of the Census before the ^ r* £J £ Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D5) Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs 5-month spans 1-month spans -p 1963 12 26 area components *-. 0 rH bO CX -P > 0 2i si ai 8i si ai % ^ i i £.2 crt co C ^ rH >-3 bD <! CX C/D 1963 1964 -H> O > "ZZ C ,0 & 3 r ?!i *H ^ fi £ 1 ^ i ,H >i £ S 4j- £ rH bD C ^ ^ t-3 rH -p > 0 tlO & -p > 5 3 * 8 £ 43 49 45 62 32 34 85 13 66 76 51 51 60 57 _ _ _ + _ _ + - + + + _ + 47 labor market areas^ &, 3 % 8 £ & rH 3 t-3 1 JD 0) (J4 bD 2 <ij 1 ^ cd S Pn -P Q) 0 CO O I 1 ^H >» a erf <a^ S 1964 > O S 1 i 3 '-a O <D Q 1 rH P "-a 54 64 68 70 40 32 _ _ _ + - - £ r j Q h £ - i ^ £ j r - l b O Q H - P ! > 0 a j a > a J £ ^ a } 3 2 3 < D o o < D Tl!y!?1if1Th7fe?c?sfe? t»Da-P > 0 C r Q JH h >> d • H ^ ( D O O C D c d ^ c r f i ^ c d P P < t J C O O S Q H 3 P ^ S < ^ S H 3 | - 3 68 49 51 83 79 55 70 77 NORTHEAST REGION - + - + + - 7 16 Buffalo 11 Newark 1 New York 21 + _ _ + Philadelphia* 8 Pittsburgh 23 + _ - + _ _ + + + _ - + + + + + + _ + - + _ - - + + + •f i- - + _ + + _ - + + - + - + + - - + + - o + - + - - + + + + + + - + - - + • * • - -»- + + + - + + -H - + + -*- + - + + + + + -1- + + + - - - - - + + - - - + _ _ + -»--i--i- + __ + + -- + + + - + + - - h + - h _ + + + + + + + + _ -!-+ + + + + + NORTH CENTRAL REGION 3 18 10 26 5 25 22 15 13 9 Chicago . ........ * . + + Cleveland ** Detroit . . • • . . « • • « • • • « . « « « « « « • • « • « • « • « « . Kansas City . .. .. . . ....... ...... + + + + St . Louis _ + - + - + - - - + _ _ + _ _ _ + + - + - + - + _ + + _ _ + - + - + - + + _ + _ _ + - + * - - - + _ + - + + + : ! ; " :; : : +>-++..+ _ - f _ + __ + + + + - + -I- + + + •f _ _ + + _ + _ SOUTH REGION 20 Atlanta 12 17 Dallas U Houston . . .... « • « • + - - - + + - + + - + - - + + + _ + - + + - - + - WEST REGION 2 24 6 San Francisco 19 Seattle* _ - + + - - _ + i- + + - + + •* + :; :;: : + + - + + + - + - - - - H - - - + + - - h + - H + + - - = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern. The direction of change is shown for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined. *Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in August 1964. **Designated by Bureau of Employment Security as an area of substantial (6 percent or more) and persistent unemployment in August 1964. •'•The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26. rt ^ O S O> Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultura! Establishments 3 -month spans 1-month spans 1964 clay 1 C rH 0, % I o 1 8 o a I C , Q ^ ^ ? > i C r H b D P < - P > 0 |c d O ) J I l Q - a h l ^ J| ^ ^ a > O O < D -^Ct.2<!S! -3 -3<coo2:Q 1 C1 fi1 f-t1 JH1 >1 > C1 r H1 b1 D C1^ - H1 >1 0 Q r ^ ( S ! ^ § § r ^ r and glass products. .. ............ - o 0 + o o + - + - + o - - - - - - 0 4- + + + + - 4 - 4 - + - -+ 0 + -_ +-+ + + 0 4 - Machinery 4- Transportation equipment 44- Textile mill products Paper and allied products Printing and publishing •• .. Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and related products Rubber and plastics products •• .• ...... 4- - + 0 + 4- 4 + 0 0 0 0 0 + 0 + + 0 O + + o - 4 - 4 - 0 - 4 - 4 - - + 0 4 - 4 - - 0 + + + + o O + 0 + - + 000 4 - 4 . _ -0 - 4 - 4 - 0 o + + - Federal government State and local government + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. 444- ^ 8i 2 1a C ^ Q f H ^ > a C r H b o a 4 - P > O bfl - | - > > O C ^ ^ r H > > C r H b O a 0 1 1 + 4-4- o o + 0 0 4- 4- + 0 44- 44- 44- 44- 444- 4- 0 + - 1 1 1 1 1 1 4- 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 44444- 4 - f 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - + + 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - +4- 44- 44- 0 4- 4- 4- 4- - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - f -00 44- 4-4- 44- + + + 4-4- 4- 44- 0 4- 44- 444- 444- 4- 4- 40 40 4- f- _ 4- O 0 0 ;4-4-1-4-4-4-44+ 0-4-O+-4-0 1 75 60 50 48 40 63 48 73 75 85 80 78 80 68 - _ _ + + 4 - 4 - 0 0 - - ° 4-4-4- + + - 0 Mining 44444- O Sf £ -p _ _ - 4 - 4 - 0 - f 4-4-4- + O - _ O 4- 4- ^ I >» + + 4- ^ bD 1 J-i 1964 _ 0 Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade ^ rH Jun-Sep bO 1 1963 75 48 45 65 42 70 43 83 77 63 60 70 77 43 + o Percent rising All nonagricultural establishments Stone rH Sep-Oct 1963 30 industry components + 44 - 4 - + + + + + + _ 4 - 4 - + + + - - - - - _ _ 4 - + + 0 - 4- 4-4+ 4 0 0 + +- - - - 4 + - + _ 4 - + + 4 + -+ + + + + + + + + + + + 0 + 44444- 44444- 44444- 0 444- 444- 444- + + + + 44- 44- + O 4- 0 4- 4+ _ + _ _ + + + + + + + 0 + Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined. 1 1 1 l Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D47) Index of Industrial Production 3 -month spans 1-month spans 1963 24 industry components r—1 3 >-* bfl 3 <J C rH ft Q) C/} -P O O > O "Z O O Q ft -H> > C r a ^ r W > > C r H h C f t - P > 0 C d Q [J . Q <l 3 P i Ka l l J J J< Q J O O Q ) ~ 3 & - i S i 2 3 ~ 3 ^ C O O I 2 Q l 1 3 •~3 J *~i t»0 J •*$ 1963 1964 <U C/D O .O O Z O C 1 P 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 •+• 4- O 1 Q f H ^ > l C r H b f l f t - » Q i - 3 t i H S < < S | J 1 > 1 > - 3 ^ « J j C O O 2 : 73 69 58 65 50 77 58 79 71 83 71 62 73 75 All industrial production 1 rH faD ft 3 rf <U 1-3 <J c/} i i i t-i >s C 1964 4° b O I rH > O 2: i bO O (D Q i ft •S4 ^ ^ •? •§ w niiiniiiii 88 90 77 73 71 77 69 83 83 92 88 79 83 75 -f- DURABLE GOODS Primary and fabricated metals Primary metal products • Fabricated metal products ' • 4-4- " + + Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery . Transportation equipment Instruments and related products Clay, glass, and lumber. Clay glass and stone Lumber and products . . . 4- O ... 4-4- 44- 4- + + + 4- 4- ° + 4 - 4 - 4 - 144- 444" 4— f- — 41- + 4h 444- — 4- 4- f- + 4- - - - - 4- NA — 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- 4- 4> 4- 4- f f- h 4- + + ^ . . .. .. . . . f 4- NA Furniture and fixtures 4- 4- > — 4- 4- 4- 4- 4-4- \- 4- (- 4- h f- n> NONDURABLE GOODS Textile, apparel, and leather 4- 4- 4- 444 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- 4- 4- — — Apparel products Paper and printing Paper and products . Printing a,nd publishing ...... Chemicals and products • . — 44- _ _f_ _ 4- 4- 4- - 4- -f. _ + - 4- 4- NA NA 4-4- 4- NA NA NA -j.-f-.f- f -f. -f. - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 1- — 4- f - - 4- + f4- -4- 44- 4- 44- NA 4- NA NA 4- NA NA . NA + f 4- 4- r f ^ 44- f - f4- f4- 4- 4- NA 4- NA NA 4- • — 4- 4- 4- — O 4- 4- NA + NA 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4-44— 4 - 4 - 4 - 4+ _ + + + + O 4- 4- 4- 4 - 4 - NA NA 4- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4- f — 4- + Foods, beverages, and tobacco 4- - NA 4-4-4- NA NA 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4-4- Tobacco products 4- O 4- 4- - 4- - - NA NA NA MINERALS Coal Metal mining O 4- — 4- 4-4- 4- 4-4- (• I- - - 4- 4- 4- — 1- 4- f- — -NA 0 f 0 4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined. NA = not available; •"•The direction of change is shown for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industryare used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued 00 (D54) Sales of Retail Stores 5-month spans 1-month spans 1963 1964 Percent rising < +-> 4- 4- _ 444- - 4- Other food stores Family apparel stores 44- 444- 444- 444- Furniture stores Building material dealers Farm equipment dealers Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire and battery dealers Gasoline stations Drug and proprietary stores 0 4- 44- 4- - 40 4- 440 - +• •h f +• 4444- - 4f 4- 4fr- + h - Other durable goods stores 4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. mined. 44- i f-< i f~i i > ^ <aJ -3^><<C/)O2 CD ^ i i £>s C ~3ti-.!S<<S | i i i i i—) bfl Pi -H - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 0 4 - 4 - 4+ 44- f44- i444- - o 0 CD 0 2; Q I 1 cd \ CD I CD I C/) 62 75 67 71 54 69 58 88 81 79 81 90 79 4- 4- 4- 4 4 - 4- - 4- 4- 4- - 4 - - 4 - - 0 4 - 4 - 4 - _ - 4 - + + • » • - - 4- 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4- - - + 4- 4 - Q 4 - 4 - - - + - 4- +• 44- 444- 4- 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4- - -h - o - + - + - + + 0 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 444- - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - _ 4 - i - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 . - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - _ 4. _ 4- PH c 4•^ > 0 0 CD 1 1 S ^3 ^ CD J ? *? ° >, C rH Cd S Pn <d > 54 44- 44- 44- 4-4-44-1-4- 44- 44- 4- 4- + 4- _ 4- 4- 4- - 4- 4- 44- 444- 4444- 4444- bfl 4- 4- 4- 4 - - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 4- 4 - - 4 - 4 - - + 4 - 4 4- 4 - 4 - - Q 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4- + - - + - + + + 0 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4- _ 4 - - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 44- Department stores Men ' s wear stores l i £) 67 65 25 58 54 77 44 71 52 52 67 67 52 56 4- Variety stores Q i C Dec-Ma; »? i O Oct-Mai rH ^ a 1 Apr-Sej C i 8i S1 t Jan-Jun 1964 Feb-Jul 1963 24 retail store components 4- 4- - 4- 44- 444- 4- 4- 4444- 4O 44- 44- 40 44- 4- 4444- 44- 4- 4- 4- 444- •h 44- Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census o 4 4- 4- 4- 4-4-4- 4- 44- 4-4-44- 4- - - 4- 4- O 144- 444- 4- 4- 44- 4- 4- 44- 4- 444- - 4- 444- rt ^ ^-.. O 4- 0 4- -4-44- 4- - 0 4-4-44- - 44-4-44-4-404-4- 44444- o l-t o 444444- 4- before the direction of change is deter- Table 6.--DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS AND PERCENT 0, SERIES RISING: JULY 1963 TO PRESENT-Continued (D58) Index of Wholesale Prices, All Manufacturing 5-month spans 1-month spans 1964 1963 23 manufacturing industries 1-1 bD CX +> d ^ <u o -D <; co o i i i i 7* •-a 3 "-J 3 <! <U c/D > o •z, i &1 0 O & 0 C £> 1* f-, ^ s C r H t k D D ^ - P > 0 i i i i i i i |c 3 << La >D yOo 2< :i Q > - d3<( i ^> . j Si <i ci iJ iSJ !d ^d >^ -: D i i i 48 59 59 76 70 61 59 63 46 63 44 46 67 65 0 + - 0 + - - + o - - 0 + + - - i i Q( U» -o 3J tc i UH aS l <C; XS (j -r 3i t ^~ r o^ <^ i Cj cD oCo J2 O: 0 _ + _ 0 + --+ + + 0- + + - + - + + - - - 1964 1963 00 i—1 ;=! >-3 X) M ^J <ij fn Ou Q) CO fn -P 0 O >j . > O ^ d O 0) Q rH p3L, ^ dj S *~2 '"S g ^ S ^ & S ^ ^ ^ o S S ^^ii^^r^i^^^g r M j QP ) H O- P O >( 0 D £a , } £ Q> ) f o- Ji fM - - ' t> C^ nS P d3 • a j c O O ^ Q ' - a P ^ S - ^ S 1 " ^ ' " 3 52 52 70 74 72 70 74 72 67 70 54 56 52 61 + DURABLE GOODS Miscellaneous machinery • • . . Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles .* Miscellaneous products ... ... - 0 + 0 0 o - + -t- + o + + + i- + o + + + + - + o _ _ + -k- - 0 _ _ _ + -k+ + 0 Cotton products o - + + + Manmade fiber textile products + + + 0 0 -k+ - o - Pulp paper and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products refined Hides, skins, leather, and leather products.... + = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. mined. 0 + -k+ 00 + + + + + + +0 + + _ _ - + + + o o + \+ o + + _ o + _ o + + - - + + + + OO + + + + 0 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o - - f - o + o + - - + + + o - I- t- + -k- + o 0 _ + __ + h + _ + + + g o + _ _ _ _ _ + + 0 -t+ - o -k-k0 + o 0 0 0 + 0 0 0 + - + -k- + + - + o NONDURABLE GOODS Processed foods - + + o + 0 + + 0 - - - + + 0 + + 00 + + - + 0--+ 0 + 0 + + + + + + 0+ 0 +-+- - - - + - _ + _ — + 0 + + - - + 1- + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + o + + - 0 0 + + + + + - - - - - - - + 0 + + + + + Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is deter- Cyclical Patterns 50 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED Index - Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) ......... July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) ----July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr, 1958) - May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) 0 Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak, 9. Construction contracts awarded, comm. and indus 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg. 29. New pvt. housing units authorized, local bldg. permits 24. Mfrs. new orders mach. and equip, indus - no 100' -190 -12 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +42 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 + 42 Months from reference troughs ^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100" For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. 2 For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. 51 Cyclical Patterns CHART 4| COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED Nov. 1948 to Apr, 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. Index I I I I I 1 I I I II I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I II -iiio -<- Reference trough dates 150 140 13. New business incorporations . . •- ,~ >1*. V. -105 • *. « . • * r\* •' V/ * VVx / \ ••**• ' ** 130 100* 120 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks -"80- MOO 80 L0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from reference troughs +42 ^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For sseries with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarrter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. Cyclical Patterns 52 CHART 4| COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED Index I I I MI I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I MI I Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to presenti (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) - Reference trough dates Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. Index II II I M l I I I I I I I I II I II I 43. Unemployment rate total /inverted./ Reference trough dates nor 41. Employees in nonagr establishments 55. Wholesale pri farm prod, and foods J 95 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 42 Months from reference troughs ^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. Cyclical Patterns CHART 4m 53 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS»Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED I I | 1 1 I I 1 1 I I 11 11 I I ! I I | I I I I I 11 I I I I 1 1 1 1 ir[T Nov. 1948 to Apr. 1953 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949) July 1953 to Feb. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954) July 1957 to Oct. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958) May 1960 to presenf (Reference trough: Feb. 1961) 0 Index - Reference trough dates Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. Index 51. Bank debits outside NYC 100 95L -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Momns Months from rrorn reference reference uougns troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Montns Months rrom from reference irougns troughs ^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For serie with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter i sefat "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. 7>ee table 2 for latest "month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. Cyclical Patterns 54 CHART 41 COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con. Percent of reference peak levels of selected series compared for 4 business cycles. Period begins with the reference peak date preceding the trough of each cycle. PERIOD COVERED . 1949) -j. 1954) >r. 1958) . 1961) Indicates the point at which this expansion reached its reference peak. I I I I I ] I I I I I I I! I I I 120r no *ioo 67. Bank rates, short-term business loans 64, Mfrs.' inventories, all mfg. industries 90L -12 -6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 Months from reference troughs +30 +36 +42 -12 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 Months from reference troughs ^Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100" For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 7. Last 2 quarters anticipated. Cyclical Patterns 55 COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion. M I II 1 M I I !II1 I III I I I I II II II M I III I| I I I | M I || PERIOD COVERED 1949 1954 \Jndex nor index •<-Specific trough dates From specific trough dates to 45 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of— 9. Construction contracts awarded, comm. and indus. bldgs.3 1958 1961 111ITTTTTI III II IITTTTI I ] MM 1 1 III l l j i 1 1 1 I |l II -<-Specific trough dates 1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg. 105 *100 24. Mfrs.' new orders, mach. and equip. Indus 17. Price per unit of labor cost 100L + 12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 * Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1* or "2*, the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C« 2 ^ee appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific 3 troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 2. For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. 56 Cyclical Patterns COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS--Con. Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion. l i I l I I l i I I l II Il Il I l i iI PERIOD COVERED •^-Specific trough dates From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of— 1949 1954 1958 1961 MM I I III I I II I I III I II Ml II I II I I II Ml I II Ml •<-Specific trough dates 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks 100 + 12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 ^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series witf an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is sei at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. 2 See appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific 3 troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1* 57 Cyclical Patterns COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con. Percent of specific trough levels of selected series compared for 4 business expansions. Period begins with the specific trough date1 of each series for each expansion. Index PERIOD COVERED 2 From specific trough dates to 45 months later. Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins the expansion identified with the reference trough of— -r115 MINIMI I I I I I II I III I I I I I I I I I I I II I 41. Employees in nonagr establishments I—<-Specific trough dates 43. Unemployment rate, total [inverted] -110 100 M i l l M i l l M i l l II I I I M l + 12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 Months from specific troughs +36 +42 ^Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD values are shown in appendix C. 2 ^ee appendix B for specific dates. See table 2 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and comparable months after the specific troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9. Cyclical Patterns 58 Table /.-PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Ifonths after reference trough1 Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in— July 1921 July 1924 Nov. 1927 Mar. 1933 June 1938 Oct. 1949 Aug. 1954 Apr. 1958 NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 2. Accession rate, manufacturing 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.. 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 14. 16. 17. 19. 23. 24. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.). Corporate profits after taxes (Q) Price per unit of labor cost index Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... Index of industrial materials prices Value of manuf aclnirers ' new orders, machin- 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits 42 41 41 (NA) 39.7 20.6 i 95.6 29.3 27.9 88.1 37.1 56.6 72.6 52.3 40.0 102.8 104.0 119.6 103.3 117.5 183.3 94.8 63.7 38.9 101.0 103.6 86.4 101.8 105.4 133.3 42 42 190.8 164.9 116.6 166.2 42.1 43.8 74.8 67.8 199.2 139.2 170.1 124.7 96.1 82.0 117.0 116.4 127.3 110.9 41 42.1 98.4 32.3 37.8 204.7 128.1 111.4 104.0 135.8 41 42 39 42 42 42 74.5 17.3 78.0 (NA) 119.8 70.3 102.5 110.2 75.0 (NA) 202.2 82.8 99.4 65.9 5.7 (NA) 110.1 56.1 63.8 (NA) 47.1 (NA) 53.3 79.0 60.0 118.6 218.6 (NA) 53.9 107.1 120.0 98.9 95.5 97.0 161.6 80.6 130.2 59.2 103.6 95.3 169.9 97.0 131.9 67.3 97.3 101.4 140.2 98.6 103.2 118.8 141.2 102.0 148 . 5 101.5 42 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 171.3 111.1 114.7 128. 42 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 118.5 12: 42 42 42 39 39 42 42 42 84.2 (NA) 109.2 (NA) (NA) 105.1 (NA) 106.3 92.2 (NA) 103.1 112.5 114.6 123.3 114.5 108.8 79.1 (NA) 82.7 86.9 98.9 85.9 89.6 89.2 91.3 (NA) 95.2 78.8 98.1 64.3 78.6 86.8 118.9 (NA) 144.9 140.2 (NA) 137.9 141.2 129.5 111.7 137.5 135.7 137.1 124.1 143.2 134.2 127.4 102.1 40.9 96.0 119.9 108.2 125.1 121.4 116.2 102.9 64.2 111.0 116.5 109.6 129.0 119.7 110.1 10£ 102 121 122. 116. 136. 122. 120. 42 65.1 86.6 76.1 87.3 108.4 107.7 109.0 101.1 100. NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural 47. Index of industrial production. ............. 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 51. Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers... 52 . Personal income 54 . Sales of retail stores 55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities NBER LAGGING INDICATORS 1 61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q):3 a b 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q) 39 45 48.0 54.8 90.8 100.2 54.3 41.4 55.4 64.7 (NA) (NA) 125.1 129.5 128.9 107.9 91.9 94.6 119 127 42 41 41 75.6 (NA) (NA) 90.1 (NA) (NA) 84.8 (NA) (NA) 81.7 83.4 107.6 113.2 (NA) 156.5 111.3 150.3 (NA) 114.9 116.2 153.4 99.7 103.1 128.2 98 111 137 39 77.7 87.7 93.3 55.4 (NA) 134.1 130.0 103.3 93 NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the pes had been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A fo the reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates. NA Not available. •'•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actua expenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964). Cyclical Patterns 59 Table 8.-PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Months after reference trough1 Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in — July 1924 Nov. 1927 Mar. 1933 +4.6 +36.5 -9.9 -10.3 -49.3 -20.2 +7.7 +17.8 +4.1 +27.9 +16.4 +32.3 +8.3 +141.2 +173.3 42 42 +170.4 +4.1 +68.5 +67.9 -57.9 -57.9 41 July 1921 June 1938 Oct. 1949 Aug. 1954 Apr. 1958 Feb. 1961 -2.8 -12.3 -39.8 +4.4 +12.9 +45.5 +3.3 -2.5 +51.9 ' N NBER LEADING INDICATORS ?.>. Average workweek of production workers, 1,2 41 41 +5.2 (NA) (NA) 6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable 7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.. 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... 14. Current liabilities of bus. failures (inv.). 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... 5 3. Index of industrial materials prices 4. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin- (NA) (NA) (NA) +48.2 +96.3 -11.0 +7.3 -29.9 +32.6 +36.0 +20.0 +11.3 +54.4 +41.7 -62.8 +215.9 (NA) +48.5 +15.0 +32.4 +45.8 41 42 39 42 42 42 +2.9 +2.8 (NA) (NA) +62.0 +68.0 +38.4 +22.2 +39.3 (NA) +94.1 -1.2 -4.2 -19.5 -28.4 (NA) -92.3 +33.3 (NA) (NA) -16.0 +157.6 -42.4 +90.2 -30.3 +61.3 (NA) (NA) -14.2 +58.3 +14.8 -15.7 +22.2 -1.8 +55.5 +7.3 +10.3 -37.8 +21.6 -2.9 +34.3 -3.0 +38.2 +11.0 -10.5 +21.5 +28.7 +63.6 +7.2 +4.0 +60.6 +31.9 +6.4 +13.4 42 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) +95.4 +19.3 +29.9 +35.9 42 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -2.5 -34.6 +16.5 42 42 42 39 39 42 42 42 +22.3 (NA) +59.8 +25.3 +26.0 +35.6 +37.8 +1-3.3 +6.1 (NA) +25.6 +15.1 +14.9 +27.3 +14.5 +8.8 -17.6 (NA) -12.1 -13.4 -3.3 -21.0 -11.2 -10.8 +33.5 +90.5 +97.4 +56.4 +36.2 +68.5 +59.8 +65.0 +32.7 (NA) +112.1 +59.2 (NA) +65.1 +58.5 +58.9 +17.7 +187.3 +48.2 +41.8 +25.9 +49.1 +40.2 +27.4 +5.7 -5.4 +5.5 +22.2 +11.5 23.2 +21.7 +17.0 +7.3 +10.1 +13.0 +35.3 +29.2 +28.9 +19.5 +23.4 +14.0 +18.3 +33.1 +33.7 +20.1 +21.6 +11.8 +23.1 42 +3.0 -5.1 -18.3 +20.5 +14.8 +13.4 +9.9 39 45 +39.8 +59.5 +30.2 +43.6 -38.2 +223.1 -52.9 f276.9 (NA) (NA) +56.3 +61.8 +35.0 +13.0 +14.4 +17.7 +28.5 +36.3 42 41 41 -61.0 (NA) (NA) -12.3 (NA) (NA) -13.8 +11.4 (NA) +40.8 (NA) f!25.2 +9.1 (NA) +67.8 +15.7 +61.0 +91.4 -6.2 +12.5 +24.3 +6.9 +48.4 +27.2 -4.0 +12.5 +33.4 39 -27.9 0.0 (NA) +33.6 +36.2 . Index of new private housing units author - +26.1 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Number of employees in nonagri cultural '. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) ). Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 5. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities +1.6 +0.1 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q):3 b , Index of labor cost per unit of output, , Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q) -3.1 -28.9 +19.7 +0.4 NOTE: For the expansions beginning in July 1921, July 1924, November 1927, August 1954, and April 1958, the peak id been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the first column. See appendix A for le reference peak dates and earlier issues of Business Cycle Developments for the levels reached on those dates. NA Not available. 1 Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 3 Comparisons are made for this series on the basis of (a) the period 39 months after the February 1961 trough (actual icpenditures) and (b) the period 45 months after the same period (anticipated expenditures for 4th quarter 1964). Cyclical Patterns 60 Table 9.-PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 17, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 53, and 54), the figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 9, 13, 24, and 29), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C. Selected series Months after specific trough1 July 1924 Nov. 1927 Mar. 1933 June 1938 Oct. 1949 Aug. 1954 Apr. 1958 Feb. 1961 Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion beginning in year shown NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... July 1921 -97.8 -100.0 (NSC) *99.8 *99.0 100.2 44 (NA) 17. Price per unit of labor cost index 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... 38 42 42 46 44 "45.2 -86.3 (NA) *99.2 ---71.3 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries 29. Index of new private housing units author- 45 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -211.6 -106.2 -99.2 44 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 91.3 (NA) 82.8 78.8 88.3 81.0 76.9 87.2 118.4 (NA) 143.5 133.5 (NA) 141.3 171.0 132.0 111.6 (NA) 133.5 130.5 118.6 135.0 146.9 (NSC) 69.1 -"-114.6 -108.2 24.6 ---106.8 ---110.5 -70.4 (NA) (NA) (NA) 170.0 (NSC) 47.5 -100.8 -76.6 75.6 100.5 183.9 47.4 (NSC) 37.7 68.5 (NSC) (NA) -107.2 -90.3 47.8 ---155.6 ---186.3 105.0 *135.1 *65.1 (NA) 3 92.9 139.0 -138.1 96.2 *101.0 99.2 ---122.5 137.3 *92.9 99.8 *96.5 126.5 94.6 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural establishments 47. Index of industrial production 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 52 . Personal income 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe.. 54 . Sales of retail stores 42 39 42 39 39 44 44 40 44 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks.... -105.4 -67.5 -109.2 -121.6 -"-110.1 ---122.6 ---116.1 114.7 -103.0 107.'' *78.2 96. -109.0 119 -112.4 12;' -107.6 1] 119.4 31< *108.3 11 *109.4 11 Percent change from specific trough related to reference expansion beginning in year shown NBER LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average workweek of production workers, 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2... -91.3 ---96.6 -105.6 (NA) (NA) (NA) *112.3 *108.2 -116.2 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) (NSC) (NA) (NSC) (NA) *111.1 ---112.9 (NA) (NA) (NA) 102.9 (NSC) (NSC) 38 42 42 46 44 -"-+15.4 *+7.9 -+4.5 +2.2 +20.5 +6.5 --+4.1 *+5.2 +6^ -+118 . 5-"-+82.6 -+40 . 1+154.4 (NA) +52.1 (NSC) +35.9 3 +49. *+23.6 ---+42.9 *+20.5 -+12. 8 -52.8 +15.9 (NSC) "+51. 7 +12. (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) -+15. 2 ---+6.8 -+9.4 +4.' *+46.2 +99.6 (NSC) +211.9 -12.5 -+87.4 *+109.6 -''-+48.1 +52 ---+75.0 -+36.7 ---+7.3 +103.3 +62.5 ;-+100.3 -+24.7 -+17. 4 +9 24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin45 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) '-+180.1 *+89.9 -+36.7 +36 44 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 29. Index of new private housing units author(NA) (NA) -+56.3 +26 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Number of employees in nonagricultural 49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q) 50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).. 52 . Personal income 53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe.. 42 39 42 39 39 44 44 40 *+32.6 -+12. 0 *+11.5 +33.5 +32.7 +17.7 (NA) (NA) (NA) +90.1 (NA) +169.6 -"-+66.1 *+31.7 -+24.9 +77.5 +112.2 +48.2 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) +56.4 +59.2 +35.3 (NA) (NSC) (NSC) +31.1 (NA) +21.5 *+32.8 -+15. 3 -+15. 9 +64.7 +61.7 +41.6 (NA) (NA) +116.2 (NA) +133.8 +68.1 +20.7 (NSC) (NSC) +70.0 +63.4 (NSC) -+9.1 -+7.6 +1C *+6l.9 -+54.2 +39 *+21.3 -+27.2 +28 *+24.9 *+l6.4 +23 -+14. 3 "+12. 5 +18 *+24.2 +20.8 3 +22. "+25.6 "+17. 6 +23., +20.6 -+13. 7 +24. NA Not available. NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates. ^Indicates that a specific peak had been passed and a specific contraction was underway for this series by the mon-t indicated in the first column. The figure shown represents the change to the specific peak and the period covered : shorter than that of the current expansion (col. l). See appendix B for specific peak dates. •'•Based on period of the most recent specific expansion for each series; i.e., from the most recent specific trough 1 the latest month shown in table 2. The number of months is the same for each expansion except those indicated by £ asterisk (*). Specific trough dates are shown in appendix B. 2 Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series. 3 Since no specific trough or peak has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) shown in table 2 and the hig preceding that low. Technical Papers and Background Materials Series 54, Sales of Retail Stores: Descriptions and Procedures Max Shor, Business Division Allan Young, Economic Research and Analysis Division Bureau of the Census INTRODUCTION The monthly volume of retail sales is regarded by the business analyst as a significant indicator of current economic conditions. Retail sales absorb a substantial portion of the disposable income available to the American consumer. The amount of such sales (in total and by the 24 kinds of retail business for which these figures are compiled) is of vital interest to all Business firms involved in the production and distriution of these retailed products. Retail sales data are available on a monthly basis m 1935 to date. During the post-World War II iod, this monthly series exhibited a pattern which ncided with other direct measures of aggregate onomic activity whose movements are used to define 3 business cycle. However, this series was little rected by the 1945 recession and levelled off rather an declined during the recession of 1948-49. Its ming at other business cycle turning points is pre3nted in the following table showing leads (-) and igs (+) in retail sales at business cycle turning points ince 1935: Business cycle peak month y 1937 '/ember 194-8 Ly 1953 ly 1957 y I960 Business cycle trough month me 1938 ctober 1945 ctober 1949 ugust 1954 pril 1958 ebruary 1961 Lead (-) or lag (+) at peak month +4 No specific cycle No specific cycle -4 +1 _1 Lead (-) or lag (+) at trough month _1 No specific cycle No specific cycle -7 -1 +2 When using retail store sales as an indicator of urrent business conditions, we must consider not only ts past cyclical record at peaks and troughs but also ;he degree to which the current month-to-month changes may be reflecting the underlying cyclical movements as distinguished from erratic or irregular movements. In addition, it is useful to consider in some detail the adjustments made to the unadjusted data to arrive at the seasonally adjusted series. And, of course, what constitutes a retail transaction, how the unadjusted data are compiled, and to what extent the data adequately represent all retail activities must also be considered. DIFFICULTIES IN APPRAISING CURRENT MONTH-TO-MONTH CHANGES Month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted retail sales often consist largely of erratic movements that obscure underlying cyclical movements. However, over longer spans cyclical movements cumulate and dominate the erratic or irregular movements which tend to offset one another. (See "Sales of retail stores," chart 1, page 15, Business Cycle Developments.) "MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) thus provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical movements in retail sales. For the period 1953-63, MCD for the retail sales series is "2", indicating that changes over spans of 2 months or longer usually reflect cyclical movements in the series, while changes over 1-month spans tend to be dominated by the irregular movements. Other conditions also cause difficulty in evaluating current month-to-month changes in the retail sales series. Since monthly seasonal factors for the current year are preliminary, and because advance reporting estimates are used for the current month (see the description below on collection of data), the retail " sales estimates for the most recent months tend to be even more irregular than the historical series, which is based upon final seasonal factors and final estimates of unadjusted retail sales. Because of these conditions, the significance of changes over recent 2-month spans NOTE: Several people have provided the authors with valuable assistance. This paper was written at the Bureau of the Census under the direction of Julius Shiskin. Gerald Donahoe made a major contribution to the new Census Bureau seasonal adjustment of retail sales and assisted in preparing this paper. Murray Dessel reviewed the paper. Geraldine Censky and Marie Wann provided editorial review. 61 Technical Papers and Background Materials 62 may also tend to be obscured by the irregular component. For purposes of current analysis, therefore, it is often necessary to use changes over 3-month spans to sufficiently reduce the effects of the irregular component. More details concerning MCD are given in BCD, appendix C, and in reference 3. (See references at end of this paper.) SEASONAL AND TRADING-DAY ADJUSTMENTS Seasonally adjusted monthly data for total retail store sales are obtained by summing the estimated sales of 24 different kinds of retail business, each of which has been individually adjusted for trading-day and seasonal fluctuations. Motor vehicle sales are also adjusted for variation in the annual introduction date of new models. Similarly, some of the other kinds of retail business have been adjusted for variation in the dates of Easter, Labor Day, and Thanksgiving. These 24 kinds of business are shown in Business Cycle Developments, table 6, direction of change for sales of retail stores. Monthly estimates of seasonally adjusted total retail sales and sales by kind of business were recently revised for the period 1953-63 (5).1 The revised seasonally adjusted total retail sales data for the years 1960-63 was included in Business Cycle Developments, beginning with the September 1963 issue. The revised data for 1953-60 was shown in appendix F of the October 1963 issue. The unadjusted monthly data, trading-day factors, seasonal factors, and seasonally adjusted data for 1953-63 are shown in the table, page 64. Types of variations for which the retail sales series have been adjusted are described below. Month-to-month changes in unadjusted retail sales are greatly affected by seasonal influences that recur with approximately the same impact and timing every year. In many kinds of retail business the most important seasonal influence is the effect of Christmas upon sales in December. For some other kinds of business, the seasonal sales pattern arises not so much from customs or institutions, such as Christmas, but more directly from the effects of climate in various parts of the United States. Such kinds of business include gasoline service stations, tire and battery dealers, farm equipment dealers, and lumber and building materials dealers whose sales increase each spring and in early summer and then decrease in the fall. Seasonal variations were estimated with the X-9 version of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program (see BCD technical paper No. 1 for a detailed description). In addition to the effect of seasonal influences that recur in the same month every year, there are two other types of variation that are linked to the calendar. One of these, trading-day variation, arises because of different combinations of the days of the week in the same month in different years. For example, consider the month of May: In 1963 there were five Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Fridays and four Saturdays, Sundays, Mondays, and Tuesdays while in 1962 there were five 1 Numbers in parenthesis indicate references cited. See references at end of paper. Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays and four Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays. If more sales are made on Fridays than on Tuesdays, May sales would tend to be higher in 1963 than in 1962 when the reverse occurred, other things being equal. Trading-day variation has been estimated from information contained within the monthly series using techniques developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1) and by the Bureau of the Census (6). The second type of calendar variation arises from holidays, where the effect of the holiday upon monthly sales may shift between adjacent months, depending upon the date of the holiday. A prime example is the increase in sales of apparel associated with Easter Easter variation has also been estimated from information contained within the data (1). Beginning with December 1963 data, adjustments are also made for variation in sales in August and September arising from the date of Labor Day and for variation in sales in November and December arising from the date of Thanksgiving. Besides the above three types of variation related to the calendar (i.e., seasonal, trading-day, and holidays) another type of variation affects monthly retail sales patterns; namely, the effect of the date fixed to introduce new-model automobiles. Although the introduction of new models might be termed a custom or institution, the variation it causes in sales cannot be related to the calendar as simply as Christmas o. Easter, since each manufacturer can and does alte, from year to year, such variables as the date of intr duction and the extent of changes in style and mecha cal features. In addition, the manufacturer atten.! to anticipate the market for old models during changeover period. To minimize the effect on estimate of the underlying cyclical movement, anattev is made to adjust the motor vehicle monthly rei sales series for the timing of new-model introduction Variation related to new-model introductions w, estimated by adapting the X-9 program. First, t series for motor vehicle retail sales was rearrange so that low points associated with the new-model intrc ductions occurred at the same point for each yea : The X-9 program was used to estimate recurre variation in this specially arranged series. Ne: the series was recast into its original order and * X-9 program was applied again, this time to estim recurrent variation related to the calendar. The fi seasonal adjustment factor was then taken to be ; combination of the model-year and calendar-year factc isolated by the X-9 adjustments. Summary measures describing the elements maki up the month-to-month variations in total retail sal are presented here for the period 1953-63. The avera month-to-month percent changes (without regard sign) are as follows: Unadjusted series, 0 Trading-day adjusted series Trading-day and seasonally adjusted series, CI 2 7.40 6.92 0.80 2 After adjusting selected kinds of business for East* variation. Before such adjustments were made, tl average change in the unadjusted series was 7 . 5 0 p e i cent. Technical Papers and Background Materials Trading-day component3 Seasonal component, S_ . Irregular component^ Cyclical component, C 1.96 6.75 0.65 0.43 Details concerning CI, C, and I and their relation to MCD are presented, for retail sales and other indicators, in appendix C of Business Cycle Developments. Note that the average change in the unadjusted series is 7.40 percent. After removing the trading-day and seasonal variation, the average month-to-month change is reduced to 0.80 percent. If smoothing techniques (such as MCD described above) are used, it is possible to further disentangle the series by decomposing the seasonally adjusted series into its cyclical and irregular components. When the cyclical component of the series finally emerges, it has an average month-to-month percent change of only 0.43 percent. The summary measures of month-to-month changes show that seasonal and trading day variations are very large relative to the month-to-month cyclical changes in retail sales. Removal of these variations greatly facilitates cyclical analysis, since the underlying cyclical changes can then be detected over 2- or 3-month spans using MCD techniques. If these variations are not ^-emoved, cyclical changes can not be detected in spans less than 12 months (comparisons for same month r ago). Even for 12-month spans, trading-day and lay variations will at times continue to obscure yclical movements. addition to the variations described above for adjustments are made, monthly data on retail may also be affected by extreme or unusual ier conditions. The seasonal adjustment process adjust for the fact that, on average, February s volume will typically differ from that of March July. The process does not take into account, /yever, the effects of atypical weather conditions in particular month (such as an extremely heavy snowcorm in February, or unseasonably hot or cold weather Tii ly). Relationships between retail sales and extreme factors are also being investigated (4). Results "^ssarily based on the limited broad national montriiy data available, reveal statistically significant correlations between unusual weather and retail sales for only a few months of the year. Two relatively new retail series—one providing national weekly statistics and the second, monthly geographic area sales lata—-may prove useful in future work in this field, t present, to the extent they exist, the effects of rpical weather have not been eliminated from the '.sonally adjusted series and contribute, therefore, the erratic nature of the month-to-month changes •etail store sales. 'ELOPMENT OF MONTHLY RETAIL SALES DATA nion of Data 63 ments of all sizes and types throughout the country. Prior to 1951, the series was derived by applying monthly trend estimates, compiled from reports by a small fixed sample of retail stores canvassed by the Census Bureau, to benchmark quarterly estimates of retail sales developed on the basis of reported changes in sales tax collections, Internal Revenue Service income-tax data compilations, and other sources (2). In the current sample survey, business establishments are classified as retail if they are primarily engaged in selling merchandise for personal, household, or farm consumption. They are further classified by kind of retail business, on the basis of principal commodities sold. Retail stores in the sample are classified in accordance with the descriptions shown in the 1957 Standard Industrial Classification Manual, issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Budget. The classification unit is the individual establishment at a separate physical location, and not the entire company or legal entity which owns or operates the establishment. Thus, only those establishments of a given firm which are classified as retail are included in the survey. Each of these is assigned to its appropriate kind of retail business classification. Nature of the Sample The Census Bureau's current sample of retail establishments, on which the monthly sales estimates are based, is composed as follows: 1. All large retail organizations which, in the 1958 Census of Business, were reported as operating 11 or more retail stores in the United States are included each month. These organizations report the combined sales of all their retail stores in the United States. For those firms with stores in more than one kind of retail business, the reported figures are prorated on the basis of the percentage distribution of the firm's total sales by the different kinds of business reported in the 1958 Census of Business. (For purposes of developing estimates by geographic area, figures are also obtained each month for a sample of individual establishments of these firms.) 2. All other large retail stores (i.e., those with an annual sales volume in excess of $5 million in 1954) are included each month, regardless of their location in the United States. 3. The remaining retail stores are represented by stores located in 233 Census sample areas. These Census sample areas, generally consisting of combinations of two or three counties, were chosen randomly (with known probability of selection), one from each of 233 primary strata. The sample of establishments within these areas consists of the following: statistics on sales of retail stores, shown in s Cycle Developments for 1951 to date, are n estimates derived by the Bureau of the Census s monthly sample survey of retail establish- (a) All stores located anywhere in the Census sample areas which meet certain minimum annual sales criteria. These stores report in the survey each month. th- of -month variation is included in the seasonal >nt. (b) All stores located in a sample of land segments called "area segments" (with known prob- Technical Papers and Background Materials 64 SERIES 54, SALES OF RETAIL STORES, 1953 TO 1963 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. May Apr. June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Unadjusted data (million dollars) 1955 1956 . 1957 1958 12,903 12,213 13, H8 13,727 14,741 15,286 12,198 11,947 12,642 13,551 U,058 13,783 13,807 13,409 14,573 15,719 15,789 15,549 14,016 14,197 15,490 14,889 16,442 16,273 14,520 14,116 15,333 16,109 17,205 17,364 14,443 14,533 15,600 16,579 17,114 16,603 14,250 14,260 15,261 15,382 16,864 16,596 14,044 13,770 15,481 16,187 17,490 17,000 13,952 14,013 15,765 15,583 16,373 16,326 14,820 14,538 15,684 16,130 16,949 17,360 13,828 14,401 15,752 16,493 17,133 17,039 16,314 17,738 19,124 19,380 19,844 21,174 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 16,225 16,312 15,803 17,007 18,261 14,961 15,829 15,064 16,042 17,087 17,190 17,419 17,926 19,036 19,653 17,589 19,200 17,389 19,251 20,518 18,600 18,548 18,522 20,226 21,228 18,708 18,918 18,896 20,254 20,737 18,332 18,066 17,912 19,138 20,540 18,054 18,153 13,315 19,920 21,018 17,570 17,898 18,149 18,863 19,267 19,095 18,648 18,751 20,576 21,528 17,635 18,385 19,215 20,911 21,494 21,454 22,153 22 , 869 24,127 25,104 1953 1954 Trading-day adjustment factors (percent) 1953 ... 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 101.9 100.1 98.6 98.0 99.8 101.5 99.1 99.1 99.1 102.7 99.1 99.1 98.0 99.8 99.8 101.9 100.1 98.6 100.0 101.5 102.0 98.1 99.8 99.8 100.1 98.6 98.0 99.8 101.5 101.9 99.8 99.8 100.0 102.0 98.5 98.1 101.5 101.9 100.1 98.0 99.8 99.8 98.6 98.0 99.8 101.5 101.9 100.1 99.8 100.0 101.5 98.5 98.1 99.8 101.9 100.1 98.6 99.8 99.8 101.5 98.1 99.8 99.8 101.5 102.0 98.5 99.8 101.5 101.9 98.6 98.0 99.8 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 101.9 100.1 98.0 99.8 99.8 99.1 102.6 99.1 99.1 99.1 98.0 99.8 101.5 101.9 100.1 100.0 102.0 98.5 98.1 99.8 100.1 98.0 99.8 99.8 101.5 99.8 100.0 101.5 102.0 98.5 101.5 100.1 98.6 98.0 99.8 98.6 99.8 99.8 101.5 101.9 99.8 101.5 102.0 98.5 93.1 101.9 98.6 98.0 99.8 99.8 98.1 99.8 100.0 101.5 102.0 99.8 101.9 100.1 98.6 98.'' Seasonal adjustment factors (percent) 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 88.2 89.0 90.3 90.4 90.5 90.4 85.9 85.8 85.6 85.8 85.3 84.9 97.7 95.8 97.3 98.5 95.9 96.6 98.6 100.0 99.5 97.8 99.9 98.6 102.4 102.6 102.5 102.3 102.5 103.2 102.3 102.0 103.1 102.9 103.3 102.7 99.6 100.0 99.0 99.7 100.6 99.3 101.6 100.4 100.6 100.8 101.2 100.8 99.8 99.6 99.1 99.5 99.1 97.7 103.4 103.1 101.2 101.4 101.2 102.6 101.7 100.2 100.8 100.9 100.6 101.5 90.4 90.0 89.9 89.7 89.8 85.0 84.8 84.6 84.6 84.6 98.2 96.0 98.3 96.7 96.5 98.7 101.4 99.1 101.2 101.4 103.3 103.3 103.1 103.5 103.5 103.4 103.3 102.9 102.8 102.8 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.3 99.3 100.3 100.0 99.9 99.8 99.8 97.2 96.8 96.9 96.5 96.2 102.9 103.4 103.5 103.9 104.1 101.7 101.9 102.3 102.4 102.5 121.5' 120.7 121.0 120.8 121.9 11 r i. i; 12 12'v, -- Seasonally and trading-day adjusted data (million dollars) 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 H,352 13,712 H,765 15,495 16,329 16,659 14,325 14,055 14,896 15,370 16,635 16,374 14,418 14,020 15,005 15,663 16,453 16,319 14,218 13,991 15,255 15,516 16,493 16,535 14,167 13,957 15,260 15,771 16,534 16,517 14,146 14,272 15,126 15,797 16,820 16,476 14,090 13,991 15,404 15,744 16,799 16,746 14,017 13,996 15,418 15,826 16,967 16,853 14,007 14,073 15,677 15,906 16,841 16,745 14,060 14,081 15,715 15,933 16,782 16,662 13,855 14,406 15,652 16,106 16,699 17,048 13,719 14,671 15,531 16,193 16,647 17,605 1959 I960 1961 1962 1963 17,613 13,097 17,942 18,990 20,387 17,752 18,200 17,965 19,139 20,374 17,858 18,178 17,971 19,320 20,350 17,827 18,557 17,811 19,389 20,276 17,995 18,320 18,003 19,585 20,200 18,134 18,312 18,098 19,311 20,486 18,154 18,113 18,234 19,658 20,719 18,249 18,195 18,373 19,671 20,666 18,121 13,207 18,371 19,844 20,426 18,209 18,298 18,494 19,837 20,716 17,680 13,080 18,775 20,112 20,558 17,692 18,00* 18,87< 20,25 21,0- : , Technical Papers and Background Materials ability of selection) within the Census sample areas. The stores within these area segments which meet certain annual sales criteria, are called "special area segment stores" and report in the survey each month. The remaining retail stores in the area segments, consisting of the smaller stores, generally report only once a year on a rotation basis. These smaller establishments are requested, through personal annual visits by Census field representatives, to report sales figures for 2 consecutive months. The canvass by Census field representatives of a different set of about 1,900 area segments each month of the year makes it possible to account for the sales of new stores, regardless of size, which have come into existence subsequent to the initial selection of "large" stores in the sample. Definitions of Retail Sales Retail businesses included in the survey report total sales for the specified month (or 2 months, in the ;ase of smaller stores covered once annually). Both :ash and credit sales are included, whether or not payment was received during the month. Respondents ire instructed to include sales taxes, excise taxes, and 'inancing charges, but to deduct refunds and allowances r merchandise returns. Allowances for trade-ins > not deducted, however. ?tail sales estimates derived from the monthly V represent total sales and receipts of all estab>nts primarily engaged in retail trade, rather '.nal sales to consumers. As a result, sales , receipts at retail establishments for repairs c«,v. rfiher services as well as sales of merchandise to other businesses for resale or for business use. On the other hand, they exclude sales to consumers made by manufacturers, wholesalers, service establishments, or other businesses whose primary activity is not classified as retail trade. Development of Estimates Three sets of estimates are developed for each month. Each successive set of estimates is based on additional information as it becomes available, thereby providing estimates of improved statistical reliability. Initially, a small subsample of the full-sample panel described above is canvassed on an accelerated basis. 3y applying the month-to-month ratio of change in •etail sales of this subsample to the previous month's r ure for the full sample, by kind of retail business, Vance" sales estimates are derived and issued about lays after the close of each month. The data for the t recent month shown in Business Cycle Developts are these advance estimates. er second estimate is developed approximately s after the survey month covered. It is a cornestimate, based on the full sample, and consists sighted average of the following two estimates: mple estimate for the current month, obtained ciplying the current month's figure for each panel member by its appropriate statistical ased on its probability of selection) and sumse weighted figures; and (2) A ratio estimate by multiplying the previous month's composite 65 estimate by the cur rent-to-previous-month ratio of simple estimates obtained from the current monthly panel of retail stores. Retail sales data appearing in Business Cycle Developments for the second most recent month are based on this "preliminary" fullsample estimate. A third and final estimate for the survey month is then derived. As indicated previously, the smaller retail stores in each of the 12 monthly samples of area segments report their sales totals for both the current and the previous month. Hence, 1 month after the "preliminary" full-sample estimate is developed for a given month, additional data become available for that month (i.e., the previous month figures of the subsequent month's panel of smaller stores). These are used to develop a "final" composite estimate. While use of this final estimate results in only a small improvement in reliability of the monthly dollar volume estimate, it does permit a significant improvement in the accuracy of the estimated change between the 2 consecutive months. This estimation refinement was instituted with the retail sales estimates for January 1960. Limitations of Estimates The three successive estimates for each month are subject to various limitations which should be taken into account by the data user. Except where indicated, the specific effect of magnitude and direction on the data is not known. Limitations, which result from factors contributing to the differences observed among successive estimates for the same survey month, are summarized below: 1. The three estimates for each month are subject to sampling variability which can be measured, since each is based on a probability sample. The estimated sampling variability of total monthly sales for all retail stores is about 1.3 percent for the advance subsample estimates and 1.1 percent for the full sample estimates, both preliminary and final. This means the chances are 2 in 3 that the "expected value" will not vary from the sample estimate, in either direction, by more than the percentage indicated. The "expected value" is the retail sales total which would be obtained from a complete enumeration of all retail establishments, using the same techniques in collecting and processing the data as were used in the sample survey. The percentage change in total retail sales between the 2 most recent months, based on use of the advance subsample estimate for the current month, is subject to an estimated sampling variability of about 0.6 percent for all retail stores combined. The corresponding percentage change over 2 consecutive months, based on use of full-sample estimate for both months, has an estimated sampling variability of approximately 0.2 percent. Estimates by kind of business are subject to higher variability, of course, than those specified above for all retail stores combined. 2. The weighted figures of respondents reporting in time for inclusion in the monthly estimates account for about 90 percent (on the average) of the published totals, for the two full sample estimates, and about Technical Papers and Background Materials 66 75 percent for the advance subsample estimates. To the extent that the retail sales experience of nonrespondents differs from those reporting in the survey, the estimates derived may be subject to some bias. 3. Biases may also arise through the use of estimates by respondents when retail sales totals derived directly from their records are not available. This appears to be primarily a reporting problem in developing advance estimates, since these are based on data collected shortly after the end of the month, at a time when store records relating to the month's sales may not have been fully summarized. 4. The month-to-month ratio of change in retail sales used in developing the advance estimate is based on the experience of a fixed panel of respondents. It excludes the experience of retail stores opened after the advance subsample was selected (except for large retail firms reporting organizational sales totals). The subsample panel used for May 1962 through January 1964 was selected from retail stores in business during the period, FebruaryMarch 1961. A new panel, selected from stores in business during the period, July-August 1963, has been used starting with February 1964. 5. The full-sample estimates are believed to have a small upward bias since, in canvassing the sample area segments, field interviewers may fail to establish the fact that stores closed or inactive during the current month may have had some activity in the previous month. This results in a small overstatement (estimated at slightly above 0.1 percent in recent months) in the current-to-previous-month trend used in developing the ratio estimate component of the composite estimate. This overstatement is cumulative; however, as a result of the composite estimating procedure, this accumulation is limited to a constant upward bias of approximately 0.4 percent for the preliminary sales dollar volume level estimates and about 0.3 percent for the final level estimates. The month-to-month change based on the two "final" estimates is not affected by this bias; a slight bias (about 0.1 percent) exists only in the percentage change between a preliminary estimate month (the second most recent month in this publication) and a final-estimate month. Differences observed among the three success! monthly estimates are believed to be due largely these limitations in data collection and estima: procedures. For the past 12 months, the difference* for all retail stores combined has averaged about O.o percent between the advance subsample and preliminary full-sample estimates, and about 0.2 percent between the preliminary and final estimates. Revisions in the successive estimates have been greater for individual kind-of-business categories. REFERENCES 1. Marris, Stephen N., "The Measurement of Calendar Variation/' Seasonal Adjustment on Electronic Computers, OECD, Paris, 1960, pp. 343-359. 2. Moore, Geoffrey H., editor, Business Cycle Indicators, volume II, Princeton University Press, 1961 p. 49. 3. Shiskin, Julius, "Electronic Computers and Busine Indicators," Journal of Business, October l r (Republished as Occasional Paper 57 by the Nat Bureau of Economic Research, 1957). 4. Shor, Max, "Exploratory Work in Measurer the Effect of Weather Factors on Retail 1963 Proceedings of the Business and Eco? Section of the American Statistical Association 5. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Monthly Retail Report. The revised seasonally adjusted was first included in the July 1963 issue. 6. Young, Allan, "Census Trading-Day Adjustment Method" Business Cycle Developments, May 1964, pp. 59-64. Appendixes Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961 Duration in months Business cycle reference dates Trough Contraction (trough from previous peak) Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak December 1854December 1858 June 1861 December 186? December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October I860... April 1865 June 1869 October 1873... March 1882 XXX 30 22 46 IF 34 36 XXX 18 8 32 18 65 36 99 XXX 40 54 50 52 101 May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894. June 1897 December 1900 March 1887 July 1890 January 1893... December 1895.. June 1899 September 1902. 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 27 20 18 24 21 74 35 37 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910... January 1913... August 1918.... January 1920... May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 To 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926... August 1929.... May 1937 February 1945.. November 1948.. July 1953 14 13 43 13 _8 11 27 21 50 80 37 36 40 64 63 88 48 41 34 93 93 45 August 1954 April 1958 February 1961 July 1957 May I960 13 ~9 9 35 25 58 44 34 48 34 10 cycles, 1919-1961 4 cycles, 1945-1961 19 15 10 30 35 36 49 50 46 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 8 cycles, 1919-1961 3 cycles, 1945-1961 20 16 10 26 28 32 45 45 42 Average, all cycles: 26 cycles, 1854-1961 22 48 30 zi 2 54 46 3 5 48 42 6 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. X 25 cycles, 1857-1960. 9 cycles, 1920-1960. 4 cycles, 1945-1960. 5 3 6 Source: *21 cycles, 1857-1960. 7 cycles, 1920-1960. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. 2 National Bureau of Economic Research. 67 Appendixes 68 Appendix D.-CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS OR NBER (NOVEMBER 1963 TO DECEMBER 1964) lc>63 Nov. Dec. 19<>4 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 4. Temporary layoff, all industries. 86.7 95.9 144.5 107.7 5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance.... 103.1 133.7 142.1 109.5 13. New business incorporations1 82.3 97.5 116.3 96.3 14. Liabilities of business failures. 102.5 78.5 110.3 101.7 94.. 3 85.7 111.7 112.8 June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 98.3 146.0 82.4 90.7 78.7 92.5 91.0 90.3 89.0 99.0 92.0 93.5 98.9 86.6 84.0 76.7 94.4 110.0 103.5 115.0 93.8 106.9 114.6 109.1 83.0 102.9 103.3 99.7 82.9 106.7 94.4 104.7 104.7 108.2 82.7 87.6 85.5 90.5 124.9 95.9 86.6 95.2 103.0 134.2 82.3 KTf.2 102.6 77.0 94.3 85,3 17. Ratio, price to unit labor 101.1 97.7 98.0 99.4 100.0 18. Profits per dol. of sales, mfg.2. 100.8 94.7 1 30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. . 93.1 8l!l 82.6 77.4 92.0 37. Purchased materials, percent re95.1 96.7 109.6 107.4 109.3 55. Wholesale prices, except farm 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.1 100.1 100.3 100.8 102.3 96.2 99.1 101.7 103.3 101.1 97.7 106.2 100.8 97.6 103.6 107.4 110.8 105.0 111.0 124.4 112.6 93.3 82.2 109.1 106.3 96.7 100.0 100.0 99.9 92.8 91.6 93.7 92.1 95.1 96.6 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.1 100.0 100.2 62. Labor cost per unit of output, 98.9 102.3 100.2 99.9 81, Index of consumer prices 82. Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1 98.5 83. Federal cash receipts from pub,.. 101.9 106.4 90. Defense Department obligations — 92.8 102.7 91. Defense Dept. oblig., total 92. Military contract awards in U.S.. 102.3 99.9 91.9 69.3 85.8 100.6 100.0 96.2 112.1 99.9 100.0 93.7 126.6 99.4 99.9 99.0 79.0 85.7 102.5 79.7 103.9 100.2 96.6 48.9 100.8 100.0 115.0 115.1 72.3 207.0 89.6 89.2 99.0 99.8 103.7 121.6 97.6 99.9 102.9 149.8 97.9 100.2 93.8 123.5 96.9 100.2 105.7 46.1 98.9 100.2 102.9 102.0 102., 99. l 98. 106. 97.1 95.8 92.9 102;7 90.3 99.6 92.2 85.7 108.0 94.6 86.2 147.1 101.1 94.3 98.1 103.6 90.3 99.6 84.8 94.5 91.5 83.3 124.8 84.0 89.6 197.9 69.9 88. C ^9.0 93.9 84.8 94.5 100.8 101.7 100.2 99.4 100.4 100.7 100.1 99.7 99.1 98.7 99.3 99.8 100.9 101.8 128. Japan, index of industrial pro- 99.0 102.0 94.7 100.9 108.4 100.3 100.5 99.4 99.1 96.8 99.1 100.3 99.0 102 0 These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the; source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. factors are a combination of seasonal and trading-day factors. 2 Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter. 3 Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed. Appendixes 69 Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown in tables 2, 4> and 5- Data are seasonally adjusted. Jan. Feb. Mar. 194.8 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1Q54 1,109.3 1,190.4 794.9 969.9 1,249.3 1,047.4 974.3 1,101.1 1,072.2 791.8 1,022.7 1,236.3 986.6 1,043.1 1,049.2 1,094.6 772.5 1,079.7 1,280.4 1,006.8 857.0 1,023.1 1,084.8 786.1 1,255.7 1,138.2 1,017.1 1,192.9 1,062.4 1,046.5 772.2 1,133.0 1,128.8 1,009.1 1,087.4 989.2 1,077.4 830.6 1,131.2 1,063.4 995.8 1,095.7 1,069.0 976.2 820.6 1,233.1 970.0 1,018.4 1,084.4 1,125.5 976.8 812.9 1,234.0 1,012.1 1,033.5 1,072.5 950.5 907.2 888.3 1,233.0 1,028.3 1,110.6 1,022.6 1955 1956 '957 958 959 960 1,176.6 1,296.8 1,657.4 1,420.3 1,318.5 1,561.3 1,199.1 1,297.6 1,599.4 1,350.6 1,292.1 1,565.7 1,156.7 1,337.3 1,878.6 1,369.8 1,300.9 1,518.1 1,119.1 1,399.4 1,733.9 1,363.1 1,296.8 1,622.2 1,131.8 1,409.1 1,547.3 1,374.2 1,326.6 1,659.3 1,164.5 1,437.8 1,690.1 1,332.3 1,345.9 1,633.8 1,240.2 1,414.5 1,608.2 1,364.9 1,394.6 1,706.5 1,210.7 1,443.9 1,610.1 1,370.6 1,429.2 1,624.8 Year Apr. May June July Aug. Nov. Dec. 1,055.6 905.7 89?. 8 1,101.3 1,004.1 974.8 1,135.5 855.7 868.0 940.1 1,273.7 1,026.4 1,044.4 1,149.4 1,188.6 857.8 914.4 1,309.2 1,016.2 1,050.3 1,108.0 1,202.3 1,586.5 1,582.0 1,325.3 1,498.8 1,647.2 1,274.1 1,503.6 1,549.8 1,345.0 1,335.2 1,667.6 1,217.9 1,350.0 1,533.2 1,425.5 1,380.7 1,680.6 1,224.4 1,854.1 1,506.7 1,337.3 1,497.2 1,645.3 Sept. Oct. 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil. dol.) 87. General imports, total (Mil. dol.) 148 49 r O 526.4 587.0 592.5 938.4 856.1 902.0 855.7 589.0 567.3 606.3 926.6 881.1 888.6 845.7 888.3 1,047.1 1,058.1 1,054.5 1,164.6 1,246.3 890.6 1,057.1 1,050.2 1,016.4 1,194.5 1,348.0 581.6 510.0 547.6 534.1 605.8 576.9 996.8 1,005.0 903.8 869.1 901.2 957.8 752.2 919.1 905.2 1,035.8 1,118.2 1,050.7 1,213.5 1,289.8 889.8 1,013.5 1,098.5 1,045.8 1,210.3 1,348.6 589.6 548.3 636.4 985.4 838.9 942.2 852.1 619.7 523.6 684.1 966.7 882.2 906.9 928.5 609.4 515.0 787.2 939.7 845.5 913.7 855.7 625.6 486.6 821.5 885.2 897.0 910.4 852.1 596.4 565.2 955.4 837.6 915.7 970.3 815.0 620.4 572.3 911.6 799.3 898.6 831.6 812.9 555.0 602.6 876.1 844.7 904.8 898.1 836.4 676.5 593.2 890.8 812.0 978.8 849.6 889.3 939.5 1,035.1 1,052.5 1,053.8 1,312.9 1,269.0 924.0 1,067.8 1,057.9 1,041.6 1,311.7 1,276.5 956.9 1,066.6 1,122.0 1,039.6 1,251.1 1,270.7 953.5 1,066.2 1,101.6 1,050.6 1,298.3 1,255.8 981.5 1,120.5 1,063.2 1,075.9 1,407.9 1,220.6 1,051.1 1,056.8 1,089.7 1,098.2 1,200.5 1,206.0 1,059.1 977.2 1,075.3 1,164.7 1,298.6 1,161.7 989.6 1,071.0 1,090.0 1,138.0 1,333.2 1,124.8 88. Merchandise trade balance— series 86 minus series 87 (Mil. dol.) 3 49 950 951 952 953 954 +582.9 +603.4 +202.4 +31.5 +393.2 +145.4 +119.1 +512.1 +504.9 +185.5 +96.1 +355.2 +80.0 +197.4 +467.6 +547.0 +195.6 +82.9 +376.6 +1Q5.6 +104.8 +513.1 +550.7 +180.3 +250.7 +269.1 +59.3 +273.8 +472.8 +498.2 +135.8 +147.6 +289.9 +66.9 +235.3 +369.5 +553.8 +146.5 +164.5 +181.2 +88.9 +167.2 +459.6 +461.2 +33.4 +293.4 +124.5 +104.7 +228.7 +499.9 +490.2 -8.6 +348.8 +115.1 +123.1 +220.4 +354.1 +342.0 -67.1 +395.4 +112.6 +140.3 +207.6 +435.2 +333.4 -18.8 +302.0 +105.5 +143.2 +322.6 +300.7 +265.4 +64.0 +429.0 +121.6 +146.3 +313.0 +512.1 +264.6 +23.6 +497.2 +37.4 +200.7 +218.7 955 956 957 958 >59 'O +288.3 +249.7 +599.3 +365.8 +153.9 +315.0 +308.5 +240.5 +549.2 +334.2 +97.6 +217.7 +251.5 +301.5 +760.4 +319.1 +87.4 +228.3 +229.3 +385.9 +635.4 +317.3 +86.5 +273.6 +192.3 +374.0 +494.8 +320.4 +13.7 +390.3 +240.5 +370.0 +632.2 +290.7 +34.2 +357.3 +283.3 +347.9 +486.2 +325.3 +143.5 +435.8 +257.2 +377.7 +508.5 +320.0 +130.9 +369.0 +220.8 +466.0 +518.8 +249.4 +90.9 +426.6 +223.0 +446.8 +460.1 +246.8 +134.7 +461.6 +158.8 +372.8 +457.9 +260.8 +82.1 +518.9 +234.8 +783.1 +416.7 +199.3 +164.0 +520.5 89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U. S. balance of payments (Mil. dol.) -396 -843 +292 -529 -312 ... -90 -407 +511 -609 -951 -795 -741 -137 -183 -524 -249 ... ... -388 -143 -14 -927 -1,062 -850 -1,623 +355 -750 -695 -554 ... ... -333 -322 +452 -902 -1,191 -989 ... ... -842 +282 -451 -354 -401 -338 -96 -481 -1,039 -539 -1,247 ... Appendixes 70 Appendix F.--HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued Each month historical data are presented for certain series that either have not been shown here previously or have been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index. Current data are shown in tables 2, 4, and 5. Data are seasonally adjusted. Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 47. U. S. index of industrial production (1957-59-100) 1948 19^9 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 68.0 66.9 66.5 81.6 82.2 91.0 85.2 68.1 66.4 66.7 81.8 82.7 91.4 85.1 67.4 65.2 69.0 82.3 82.9 92.3 84.5 67.4 64.7 71.2 82.5 82.2 92.8 84.5 68.8 64.0 72.9 82.2 81.4 93.3 85.3 69.4 63.8 75.1 81.8 80.7 92.8 85.7 69.5 63.7 77.5 80.6 79.1 93.9 85.4 69.3 64.3 80.0 80.0 84.4 93.2 85.4 68.7 64.9 79.4 80.3 87.4 91.3 86.0 69.2 62.6 80.0 80.1 88.3 89.9 86.3 68.4 64.1 79.8 80.9 90.2 87.7 87.4 67.9 65.4 81,2 81:4 90.7 85.3 88.9 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 90.9 99.8 101.9 92.6 101.2 111.7 91.9 99.2 102.5 90.1 103.0 111.0 93.5 98.8 102.4 88.5 104.8 110.5 95.0 100.2 101.5 87.8 107.1 109.7 96.1 99.6 101.8 89.5 109.4 109.9 96.8 99.3 102.1 92.3 109.9 109.6 97.6 95.1 102.2 94.0 107.5 109.1 98.0 99.7 102.3 95.8 104.1 108.7 99.0 101.2 100.9 96.2 104.0 107.8 100.0 101.6 99.0 96.8 102.8 107.0 99.9 101.5 97.1 99.8 103.4 105.4 100.1 102.2 95.0 100.4 109.5 103.6 90. Defense department obligations, procurement (Mil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 *34 740 "ii 386 758 1,067 470 1,064 172 490 200 1,370 206 1,651 304 680 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 320 1,278 1,140 1,637 1,330 937 625 781 1,407 1,232 1,362 1,104 514 1,739 1,117 1,669 1,371 -1,020 861 1,118 1,347 1,619 1,398 983 405 1,158 802 2,042 1,381 1,488 305 1,767 744 1,580 1,425 1,397 474 1,735 707 1,404 1,202 2,204 -872 2,424 827 891 870 1,256 1,489 1,250 1,265 1,121 1,319 1,256 324 1,051 786 2,291 1,517 945 466 1,196 1,418 1,238 1,124 1,468 91. Defense department obligations, total (Mil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 2,120 2,952 1,899 2,568 2,837 2,874 2,689 2,945 2,579 2,602 2,150 3,378 2,247 3,701 2,298 2,817 1,180 3,014 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 2,442 3,376 3,325 3,720 3,538 3,234 2,812 3,009 3,594 3,334 3,601 3,439 2,613 4,248 3,254 4,091 3,739 3,368 3,180 3,515 3,543 4,078 3,620 3,362 2,449 3,240 3,020 4,251 3,569 3,677 2,366 4,179 2,745 4,279 3,863 3,771 2,379 3,447 3,017 3,818 3,729 5,305 1,145 4,588 2,915 3,355 3,263 3,824 3,522 3,358 3,184 3,541 3,906 3,999 2,376 3,145 2,855 4,596 3,802 3,357 2,591 3,430 3,499 3,481 3,608 4,109 3,254 3,349 3,406 3,816 3,160 3,58' 92. Military prime contract awards to U. S. business firms (Mil. dol.) 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954..... .. 3,976 2,528 3,682 616 3,493 5,479 2,295 564 3,001 2,959 2,381 826 2,892 2,088 2,462 1,068 3,760 3,059 2,038 1,326 2,759 4,292 2,042 1,116 4,097 1,158 2,035 886 4,241 1,002 1,089 767 2,333 2,116 1,004 2,454 2,823 2,143 959 2,271 3,462 3,295 265 481 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 I960 1,049 1,349 1,600 1,938 1,465 1,770 1,306 1,480 2,007 1,227 1,916 1,740 1,028 1,471 1,458 2,063 1,772 1,738 1,468 1,026 1,723 1,608 1,762 1,368 841 1,426 627 2,457 1,513 1,811 1,287 1,661 900 1,867 1,905 1,687 997 1,217 1,622 1,560 2,249 2,231 1,357 2,269 1,417 1,686 1,986 2,302 691 2,469 1,497 2,561 1,931 2,361 1,127 1,959 1,593 1,906 2,123 1,477 1,633 2,354 2,14C 1,936 2,289 2,127 Index Series number1 SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES (Page numbers) Charts 1 2 3 Tables 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Appendixes 6 7 8 9 A B2 C2 D F3 E2 Page 8 1:... 2, . . 8 8 3... 8 4... 8 5... 6... 9 9 7... 9 9... 1. .. 9 9 10 10 1.0 10 2 ... _.> ... 14... 15... 16... 17... 18... 19... 11 11 u 11 20... 21... 22... 23... 24... 25... 26... 29... 12 12 11 12 9 12 12 9 30... 31... 32... 37... 8 12 12 12 40... 41... 42... 43... 45... 46... V7... 9... 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 50 .. 50 .. 55 55 .. 51 .. •. .• 51 55 51 56 51 50 56 55 .. 50 .. .. .. 52 57 52 57 53 53 57 56 53 53 52 52 .. 6 .. .. •• .. 54 54 54 .. '54 .. 56 57 .. 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 25 24 24 25 22 25 25 23 6 6 6 6 22 25 25 25 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 .. 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 .. •• •• •• .. «. •• .. •. 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 60 •• •• •• 62 .• •. 60 •• 62 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 64 .. •• •• .. •• •• •• •• •• •. •• •• •• •• •• 58 58 59 59 60 .. .. 58 58 59 59 60 •• 58 59 60 •• •• •• 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 60 en •• •• •• 62 .. 62 62 .. 62 62 •• 62 63 63 63 64 63 64 63 •• •• .. •• 58 59 60 •• 62 •• •• •• •• 58 59 60 -• 62 •• 58 58 59 59 60 60 62 62 58 58 58 59 59 59 60 62 58 58 59 59 6D 60 60 62 62 62 •• •• •• .. •- .. .. •• •• •• •• .. •• 59 59 59 .• •. 58 58 58 .. 58 58 59 59 •• •. •• .. •• •• 68 68 •• •. *. •• .. 68 68 68 •• 68 68 .• 65 .• 64 63 63 65 63 63 •• •• 63 65 63 63 k cover for series titles and sources. May 1964, this appendix was "G». •• 68 •. 68 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 63 63 63 63 64 64 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 67 68 •• 68 •• G Issue Page Issue 66 1-64 66 2-64 65 5-64 66 11-63 66 7-63 65 5-64 63 6-64 •• •. •• •• •• •• •• •. 65 63 66 66 66 64 68 64 66 5-64 6-64 8-63 11-63 3-64 6-64 6-63 6-64 4-64 64 64 65 66 66 66 65 63 6-64 . • 6-64 6-64 1-64 12-63 12-63 6-64 6-64 • . 66 65 66 68 10-63 6-64 3-64 68 68 68 66 66 66 70 68 69 69 69 66 66 69 70 66 65 68 66 66 70 70 66 . . •• •• •• •• .• •. •• '. • •• •• •• •• •• •• •• .. •• 6-63 8-64 8-64 8-64 . • 2-64 3-64 2-64 9-64 8-64 8-64 8-64 8-64 10-63 10-63 8-64 8-64 4-64 •• •• .. •• .• •• 6-64 6-63 6-64 6-64 8-64 8-64 • • 4-64 •. •. •. •• •• 2 Page number shown is for August 1964 issue. 71 Index 72 SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued (Page numbers) •C! $g 81... 82... 83... 84... 85... 86... 87... 88... 89... 1 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 121.. 122.. 123.. 125.. 126.. 127.. 128.. 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 C2 3 4 5 1 2 •• .• •• •• •• 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 32 29 29 29 30 32 32 32 32 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 29 29 29 30 32 29 32 32 30 29 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 64 64 65 65 63 63 63 63 63 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 3 4 5 6 8 7 9 A B •. •. •. •• .• •• •. •• •. •. •. .. 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 •. •. 64 63 63 65 65 64 64 65 38 39 38 38 39 39 39 D F3 E 36 36 •• .. 40 40 :; •• 70 G 8-64 •• 73 7-64 69 9-64 69 9-64 69 9-64 69 9-64 63 63 63 65 64 68 68 68 •• 70 70 70 9-64 9-64 9-64 64 64 65 63 •• •• 66 6-64 37 •• .. . .» .• •• 73 7-64 68 •. .. 68 71 71 71 71 71 72 72 72 72 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 •• ..- •• . 73 73 / 73/ 73 74 74 74 74 (74 : 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 7-64 66 5-64 45 42 66 5-64 .• •• 43 44 66 5-64 •• •• 46 47 40 40 .• . • 66 6-64 41 37 36 36 68 68 68 41 41 37 37 •^See back cover for series titles and sources. Before May 1964, this appendix was "G". 3 Appendixes Page Issue Page Issue 110.. 111.. 112.. 113.. 114.. 115.. 116.. 117.. 118.. D35.. D36.. D41.. D47.. D48.. D54.. D58.. D61.. 2 20 17 17 17 18 20 20 20 20 17 90... 17 91... 17 92... 93 . . . 18 94... 20 17 95... 96... 20 97... 20 18 98... 99..'. 17 Dl... D5... D6... Dll.. D19.. D23.. D34.. Tables Charts H W h <U 0) 48 49 41 2 Page number shown is for August 1964 issue. .• TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series and "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk(*) were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators. 30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS *1. Average workweek of production workers, m a n u f a c t u r i n g (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bu- • reau of Labor Statistics *3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).— Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 5. Average weekly i n i t i a l c l a i m s for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *7. New private nonfarm d w e l l i n g u n i t s started (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).--F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. . Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census p andF. W. Dodge Corporation; -seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corpo.ations (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total *12. Net change in tbe business population, operating businesses (EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *14. Current l i a b i l i t i e s of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 15. Number of business f a i l u r e s with l i a b i l i t i e s of $100,000 and over (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. *16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).— Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing cor- porations (Q). —Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census '9. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).--Standard and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (EOM)»—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census iange in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuaon adjustment (GNP component) (Q).--Department of Com*rce, Office of Business Economics o of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all dustries (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business onomics c of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor, au of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment >f manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment ries(M)«—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census n manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods indusOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census •>licy—production materials, percent reporting commit"* days or longer (M).--National Association of Purgents; no seasonal adjustment • private housing units authorized by local building .--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 30. Nonagriculturol placements, a l l industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).— Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment 37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials(M). — National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics *41. Number of employees in nonogricultural establishments (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *43. Unemployment rate, total (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 45. 46. *47. *49. *50. *51. *52. 53. *54. *55. 57. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Personal income (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm products and foods (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS *61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and the Securities and Exchange Commission *62. Index of labor cost per u n i t of output, total manufacturing— ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census *64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census *66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure *67. Bonk rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in 1954 dollars) ((^.--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division Continued on reverse UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS WASHINGTON. D. C. OFFICIAL BUSINESS FIRST CLASS MAIL TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. 28 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).—Board of Gover- nors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 81. Index of consumer prices (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment. 83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).—Treasury Depart- ment, Bureau of Accounts. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment. 113. Net change in consumer installment debt (EOM).—Board of Gov ernors of the Federal Reserve System 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no s;, sonal adjustment 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M)..Treasury Departmei no seasonal adjustment 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Firs National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department, no seasonal adjustment 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).--Federal Hous- 84. Fed ing Administration; no seasonal adjustment 7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION the method of seasonal adjustment 85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits olus currency) (M).-- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M). —Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development 86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Depart- 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 87. General imports, total (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).--De- partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Statistical Office (London) 123. of Statistics (Ottawa) 125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt) 89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 126. 90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).—Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).-Department of De- fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census 92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).--De- partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Dominion Bureau France, index of industrial production (M).—Statistical Office (Paris) 127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--Organization for Eco- nomic Cooperation and Development 128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of Interna- tional Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of the Census ... United States, index of industrial production (M).--See serie 47. 93. Free reserves (member bonk excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment 94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). —F. W. Dodge DIFFUSION INDEXES Corporation 95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).--De- partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics 96. Manufacturers'unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).— Department of Commerce, Bureau of the C.ensus 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (Q).--National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total 98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 99. New orders, defense products (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).--Board of Governors of the Federal System Reserve 111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).— Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. I indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear > number and are obtained from the same sources. See sourc for Dl, D5, D6, D l l , D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sc other diffusion indexes are as follows: D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).--First National of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).--Dun and Br no seasonal adjustment D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Du^ Inc.; no seasonal adjustment D48. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of A, no seasonal adjustment D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--De Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal ad of the Census