Interest Rates and Bond Yields

Name: Interest Rates and Bond Yields
Creator: FRASER
Keywords: Economic Data, Economic indicators, Economic conditions, United States

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The following is plain-text output generated by Optical Character Recognition. 96tb Congress 1st Session Economic Indicators April 1979 Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE Created pursuant to Sec 5 a of Public Law 304 79th Cong LLOYD BENTSEN Texas Chairman RICHARD BOLLING Missouri Vice Chairman SENATE WILLIAM PROXMIRE Wisconsin ABRAHAM RIBICOFF Connecticut EDWARD M KENNEDY Massachusetts GEORGE McGOVERN South Dakota PAUL S SARBANES Maryland JACOB K JAVITS New York WILLIAM V ROTH JR Delaware JAMES A McCLURE Idaho ROGER W JEPSEN Iowa HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HENRY S REUSS Wisconsin WILLIAM S MOORHEAD Pennsylvania LEE H HAMILTON Indiana GILLIS W LONG Louisiana PARREN J MITCHELL Maryland CLARENCE J BROWN Ohio MARGARET M HECKLER Massachusetts JOHN H ROUSSELOT California CHALMERS P WYLIE Ohio JOHN M ALBERTINE Executive Director COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS CHARLES L SCHULTZE Chairman LYLE E GRAMLEY PUBLIC LAW 120 81sT CONGRESS CHAPTER 237 1st SESSION JOINT RESOLUTION S J Res 55 To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators and that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress the Secretary and the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate the Clerk Sergeant at Arms and Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives two copies to the libraries of the Senate and House and the Congressional Library seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee and the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries and that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public Approved June Charts draun by Art Production Branch Office of the Secretary Department of Commerce Economic Indicators published monthly is available at 1 30 a single copy or by subscription at 15 00 per year 3 75 additional for foreign mailing from SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON D C 20402 ll TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter gross national product rose 50 8 billion or 9 5 percent both at annual rates Real output GNP adjusted for price changes increased 0 7 percent from the fourth quarter level and ihe implicit price deflator rose at an 8 7 percent annual rate BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 2 400 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE UOO SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS IBillions of current dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Gross national product Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Federal Net exports Exports Nondefense Final sales III IV This category corresponds closely with budget outlays for national defense shown on p 33 Total State and local III IV Total National defense Imports Goi ernment purchases of goods and services Export s and imj orts of goocIs and ser vices Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS Billions of 1972 dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Ex 3orts of g oods Gross private d smestic aind servic es i nvestmemb Personal Gross conChange national sumpNonResi in busition product resiexpend dential dential ness in exports Exports Imports ventofixed itures fixed ries Period I I III IV rail IV II 1979 I Federal Final sales Total State and local Govern ment pureihases of gooc Is and ser vices lf lf IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Gross national product Period Persona 1 consumj tion expenditures Total Gross private dom estic inves tment NonDurable durable Services Nonresidential goods fixed goods Residential fixed Expoi ts and imports of goods and s srvices GovernnQent purchases af goods and s srviees Exports Imports Federal State and local IV II III IV I P Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis CHANGES IN GNP AND GNP PRICE MEASURES Percent change Irom previous period quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Gross national j roduct Con Cur Period stant 1972 rent dol dol lars lars III IV 1978 I Im plicit price deflator III IV I ed price index NOTE Annual changes from previous year and quarterly changes from previous quarter rent dol dol lars lars Chain price index Fixedweighted price index 1972 weights Implicit price deflator stant Con Cur weights Fixedweight Chain price index II Gross domestic roduct Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS OUTPUT COSTS AND PROFITS Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Gross c omestic prodi let of nonfin ancial corp jrate busi ness billic ns of doll ars Period Current do ilar cost a nd profit per unit of outpu t dollars i Total cost and profit 2 Capital conComsumption penallowances Indirect sation business of with capital taxes 3 employees consumption adjustment Current dollars 1972 dollars I II III IV II III IV I Output is measured by gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business in 1972 dollars 3 This is equal to the deflator for gross domestic product of nonfinancial corporate business with the decimal point shifted two places to the left Indirect business tax and nontax liability plus business transfer payments less subsidies Net interest Corpo rate profi ts with inventc3ry valuat ion and capii al consuniption idjustmen ts Total Profits tax liability Profits after tax 4 ComOutput penper sation hour per of all hour employ of all ees employ 1972 ees dollars dollars With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics NATIONAL INCOME Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Corpor ate profit s with inv entory va luation Propr letors and capital cc nsumptio n adjustmtents incom e with Rental inventor y valua income Profits with inv entory tion anc capital of perComvaluaibion adjustment consuroption sons pensaand iwithout aipital adjust ments with tion of Net Naconsum ption adjiistment Capital capital con interest emtional conincome ployTotal Inven sumpsumption ees l tory Profits valua adjusttion NonFarm Total adjustbefore farm ment tion tax ment adjustment Period IV II III v IV I Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Includes employer contributions for social insurance See also p 5 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Billions of dollars except as noted quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Nondura ble goods Durable goo is Total personal consumption Total expendi durable goods l tures Motor vehicles and parts III IV II III IV I Period Total nondurable goods 1 Food Clothing Gasoline Services and and oil shoes Total includes other items not shown separately Furniture and household equipment Retail sales of new passenger cars nlillions of uilits Domestics Imports Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose 19 2 billion annual rate in March following revised increases of 13 0 billion in February and 7 4 billion in January Wage and salary disbursements rose 14 2 billion in March compared with 10 4 billion in February BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE i I 600 WAGE AND SALARY DISBURSEMENTS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Period COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars monthly data at Wage 3 Total and Other Proprietc rs income personal salary labor income disburse income1 2 Farm Nonfarm l ments seasonally adjusted annual rates Rental income of persons 4 Dividends Less PerNonPersonal Transfer sonal confarm payinterest tributions personal income ments for social income 6 insurance C Oil S S S Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec S 1 641 g C S 1979 Jan Feb Mar I The total of wage and salary disbursements and other labor income differs from compensation of employees see p 4 in that it excludes employer contributions for social insurance and the excess of wage accruals over wage disbursements 2 Consists of employer contributions to private pension health and welfare funds workmen s compensation directors fees and a few other minor items J With inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments With capital consumption adjustment 5 Consists mainly of social insurance benefits direct relief and veterans payments 6 Personal income exclusive of farm proprietors income farm wages farm othei labor income and agricultural net interest Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME Real per capita disposable income rose again in the first quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 8 000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 7 000 DOLLARS RATIO SCALE CURRENT DOLLARS DOLLARS i SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE T Less Per Period sonal Pertax sonal and income nontax payments Equals Disposable personal income Less Personal outlays Per csapita dispc sable persona income Equals Personal saving Current dollars Current dollars 1972 dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of Populadispostion thou 2 able sands sonal income Dollars Billions of d ollars dollars Per cap ita personal ccmsumption exp enditures Seas onally ad lusted anriual rates 1977 III IV II I 682 4 III IV Includes per iw4 consuniptioiiexi nditur05 interest paid by consumers to business and personal transfer payments to foreigners net Includes firmed Forces abroad Annual data are for July 1 through 1973 and are averages of quarterly data beginning 1974 Quarterly data are average for the period 6 Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census FARM INCOME According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter net farm income before inventory adjustment rose 1 7 billion annual rate while income after inventory adjustment rose 0 2 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE GROSS FARM INCOME BEFORE INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT NET FARM INCOME AFTER INVENTORY ADJUSTMENT V I I t V i SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Personsil income received Income rejceived frc m farmin g by tota farm po pulation Gross i ncome be ore mven tory adNett farm justnlent oper ators Cas h receipts from Period ProducFrom From From inarketing s all farm nonfarm tion ex Before After l penses inven invensources sources sources Total Livestock tory tory Crops Total and adjust adjust 2 ment ment products Billioias of dollairs IV 91 4 Net incc me per farm sifter inventory adjustme n t 3 Current 1967 dollars dollars 4 Do liars I II III IV Cash receipts from marketings Government payments and nonmoney income furnished by farms 2 Inventory of crops and livestock valued at the average price for the year 3 Based on 1969 Census of Agriculture definition of a farm The number of arms is held constant within a year Data for 1979 estimated Income in current dollars divided by the consumer price index Source Department of Agriculture CORPORATE PROFITS According to revised estimates for the fourth quarter of 1978 corporate profits before tax rose 19 5 billion annual rate while after tax profits rose 11 3 billion BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SOURCI DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE 1979 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Profits after tax Profil before tax wit h invent Dry valusition adjustn nent l Domeptic indu stries IN onfinan 3iaJ Period Total III IV I II III IV I Total Financial Total8 Manufaeturmg Wholesale and retail trade i See p 4 for profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments 8 2 3 Profits before tax Tax liability Total Dividends Undistributed profits Includes rest of the world not shown separately Includes industries not shown separately Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Inventory valuation adjustment GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT According to preliminary estimates for the first quarter business fixed investment rose 5 5 billion annual rate as nonresidential construction outlays fell 0 1 billion and producers durable equipment purchases increased 5 6 billion Residential investment outlays declined 2 5 billion Inventory investment amounted to 18 1 billion up 4 6 billion from the fourth quarter level BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 180 NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT PRODUCERS DURABLE EQUIPMENT STRUCTURES BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT I 90 I I I I BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I J 1978 L L SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Noiiresident ial fixed investmcint Gross Period private domestic investment Strucjtures Total Prodiucers dur able equip ment Total Total Prn Total Nonfarm Nonfarm structures Farm ducers durstrucable tures equipment Change in business inv entories Total Nonfarm IV II III IV 1979 I Nonfarm Resid ential fix ed inves iment Source Department of Commerce 1Bureau of EC onomic An ilysis 9 EXPENDITURES FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT Business plans to increase capital spending 11 3 percent in 1979 according to the Commerce Department survey conducted in late January and February Spending in 1978 was 13 3 percent above 1977 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 180 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 180 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES TOTAL NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT NONMANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING I 20 I I J I I I I I SEE FOOTNOTE 4 BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Starts f plant and eqilipment proj ects E xpenditun s for planit and equipment M anufactur ing Period Total i Total N onmanuf aeturing Durable goods Nondurable goods Total Trans Public Mining porta utilition ties II III IV I II nd half Excludes agricultural business real estate operators medical legal educational and cultural service and nonprofit organizations These figures do not agree precisely with the nonresidential fixed investment data in gross national product estimates mainly because those data include investment by farmers professionals nonprofit institutions and real estate firms and certain outlays charged to current account 10 Communication Commercial Manufacturing and other 2 Public utilities Includes trade service construction finance and insurance Starts are estimated by adding changes in carryover to expenditures during given period Planned capital expenditures as reported by business in late January and February 1979 Plans are adjusted when necessary for systematic bias Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE Seasonally adjusted employment increased by 195 000 in March while unemployment fell by 10 000 MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS YEARS OF ACE AND OVER COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR Thousands of persons3 16 years of age a nd over C ivilian einaploymerit Period Civilian labor force Total Total labor force including Armed Forces Noninstitu Civilian Unemtional employ ployment populament tion Unempl Dyment N onagri cultural Part time Total AgriculTotal for economic tural reasonsl Seascmally adjilisted Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Uinad justed Persons at work Economic reasons include slack work material short C3 JLUaULUliy to 1111U ILLU UULUC work CLU inability UU find full time WUJLJK etc Total labor force as percent of noninstitutional population 16 years of age and 15 weeks and over Labor force participation rate per 2 x cent o Beginning 1978 data not strictly comparable with earlier data because of revisions in the household survey which added about 250 000 to labor force and iCVIOIUUO UJ WHO to employment Source Department of labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 11 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In March the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held steady at 5 7 percent PERCENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERCENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED w 15 WOMEN 20 YEARS AND I M f II t i l HI II 1 M i l I I II I t UNIMPIOYMEN1 AS PERCENT OF CIVILIAN lAftOR FORCE IN GROUP SPECIFIED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR HI 1 1 1 f i t i t t t i t I t COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Monthly data seasonally adjusted Total all civilian workers Period 1979 Jan Feb Mar Men Women Both 20 20 sexes years years 16 19 and and years over over White i Aggregate hours lost by the unemployed and persons on part time tor economic reasons as percent of potentially available labor force hours 12 ExpeBlack rienced H ouse Full Parttime time wage hold and and other salary heads work workers ers workers Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Uneinployment rate percent of civilia Q labor f orce in group By sex and iige By select ed group S By race Labor force time lost per l cent Source Department of Labor Bureau of labor Statistics SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In March the percentage of unemployed persons who were job losers or new entrants declined and the percentage who were job leavers or reentrants rose PERCENT DISTRIBUTION PERCENT DISTRIBUTION DURATIC N OF UNIEMPLOYMEENT REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT n LESS THA N 5 WEEKS y M A WVS 5 4 WE KS f yV v v V ili WEEKS i i WEEKS AND OVER nnl n n i i i l n i i i i n 1 1 1 1 n SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR n 1 1 n 1 1n i n 1980 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Percerit distribution of unem State pi ograms Insured Pereenit distribution of unem1 unem Special ployment b y duraticMl 1 Pioyment 3y reasoii ployunemUnemployment ployall ment 27 Insured Period ment Less 15 26 weeks unem Initial regular benefit3 Reen New than 5 5 14 Job thou Job enproploy claims grams 2 claims sands losers leavers trants trants weeks weeks weeks and unadover ment unad justed justed We kly aver age thou sands Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Detail may not add to 100 percent because of rounding s FSB and SUA These programs started January 1975 and regular reporting Inclrdes State 50 States District of Columbia and Puerto Rico ex service began March 1975 men t CX Federal UCFE and railioad RR programs Also includes Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment Federal and State extended benefit programs Does not include FSB Federal and Training Administration supplemental benefits and StJA special unemployment assistance 13 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT Total nonagricultura employment as measured by the payroll survey rose by 324 000 in March MILLIONS OF PERSONS MILLIONS OF PERSONS ENLARGED SCALE ALL NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE SERVICE PRODUCING INDUSTRIES MANUFACTURING GOODS PRODUCING INDUSTRIES 30 1 in hint CONSTRUCTION II 2HJ I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I M 1 1 1 IM M I I 1 t I 1 t I I I I 1 t I I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DIPARTMf NT OF IABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Thousands of wage and salary workers l seasonally adjusted Serviee pr oducing industrie s Croods prc ducing i ndustries Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb P Mar Total nonagricultural employ Total ment Construction Trans Whole Finance Gover nment insurportasale ance Services tion and State Non Total and and Durable durable retail Federal and Total goods real public trade local goods estate utilities Ma nufactui ing Includes all full and part time wage and salary workers in nonagrieultural e stablishments who worked duiing or received pay lor any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of 1he month Excludes proprietors self employed persons domestic servants and personnel of the Armed Forces Total derived from this table not comparable with estimates of nonagricultural employment of the civilian labor force shown on p 11 which include proprietors self employed persons and domestic servants which count persons as employed when they 14 are not at work because of industrial disputes and which are based on a sample of the working age population whereas the estimates in this table are based on reports from employing establishments 2 Includes mining not shown separately Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS AND HOURLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES For production or nonsupervisory workers monthly data seasonally adjusted Averag56 gross hourly earnings Avei age weekly hours Period Total private nonagncultural Manuf acturing Total Overtime Manufacturing Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Percent ehLange from a year earlier Index Total private nonagricultural Adjusted h ourly earnirtgs index t otal private nonagri cultural 2 Current dollars 1967 dollars s Current dollars dollars AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES For production or nonsupervisory workers monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted Average gross weekly earnings Period Total pri vate nonagricuItural l Current dollars Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Manufacturing 1967 dollars Percent ch inge from a year e arlier total pri ate nonagricu Itural 5 Current dollars Current dollars5 i Also includes other private industry groups shown on p 14 8 Adjusted for interindustry employment shifts and for overtime in manufacturing 1 Current dollar index or earnings divided by the consumer price index Eevised index for urban wage earners and clerical workers used beginning 1978 Construction Wholesale and retail trade dollars Monthly changes based on indexes to two decimal places Based on unadjusted data Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 15 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA PRIVATE BUSINESS ECONOMY Hour s oi 2all pers ons Out put 1 Output per hour of all persons Unit labor cc sts Comp ensation per hour 3 Implici t price defla tor 4 PriNonPriNonPriNonNonNonNon Private Private Private vate farm vate vate farm farm farm farm farm business business business business business business business business business business business business sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector sector Period quiirterly da1 a season ally adjus ted I II III IV I II III IV Perce at change quarterl Y data at seasonal y ad juste d annual rates II III IV 1978 1 II III IV 1 Output 2 refers to gross domestic product originating in the sector in 1972 dollars Hours of all persons in private industry engaged in the sector including hours of proprietors and unpaid family workers Estimates based primarily on establishment data 3 Wages and salaries of employees plus employers contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans Also includes an estimate of wages salaries and supplemental payments for the self employed 4 Current dollar gross domestic product divided by constant dollar gross domestic product 16 NOTE Percent changes are from preceding period and are based on original data they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0 8 percent in March following two months of almost no change in the level of output Rebounds from earlier weather effects contributed significantly to the March increase INDEX RATIO SCALE 180 INDEX RATIO SCALE 160 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UTILITIES AND MINING PRODUCTION T i MINING 100 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION I 1 III I ll 1 III I I I I I I M I 1979 PERCENT RATIO SCALE 100 MANUFACTURING CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE Ft Of RAl RESERVE SYSTEM Total in dustrial produ ction Percent Period Index 1967 change from 100 year earlier 1967 proportion Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct NoVi i Dec Jan Feb Mar COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Seasonally adjusted Indu stry prodiiction ind jxes M anufaeturi ng Total Dur able Nondur Mining S ties able Output as percent of capacity data are averages of four monthly indexes Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter Annual data are averages of quarterly data 1 Annual utm Manufa eturing catpacity ut ilization rate p ircent Federal Reserve serics WharComTotal ton merce Mate series 2 series 3 manufacturrials ing Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wharton School of Finance 17 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES seasonally adjusted Procluets Final Products Equif ment Coiisumer goods Period Total Total 1967 proportion Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Intern icdiate proc ucts NonDurable durable goods goods Total Business Total SO 14 IS Construction supplies Materials Supplementary oup lergy total f S f seasonally adjusted Durable nr anufacti ires Primar y metals Period Fabricated metal products Total 1967 proportion Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Iron and steel Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 18 Non Non durable inanufact ures Transp ortation equif ment trieal machin ery Electrical machinery Total Motor vehicles and parts Lumber and products Ap F parel products 3 31 Print Chemicals ing Foods and and pubprodlishing ucts NEW CONSTRUCTION Constructio n contracts1 Private Total new construction expenditures Period Resic iential Total Total 1 Commercial and industrial New housing units Other Federal State and local CommerTotal value cial and index industrial 1972 floor space 100 millions of square feet Bil lions of dollars Seasonally adjusted Seasonall adjusted atinual rates 1978 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Includes nonhousekeeping residential construction and additions and alterations not shown separately 2 F W Dodge series Relates to 50 States beginning 1969 for value index and beginning 1971 for floor space Seasonally adjusted annual rates NOTE New construction expenditures data prior to 1973 not comparable with later data Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census and McGraw Hill Information Systems Company F W Dodge Division NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES Thousands of units or homes except as noted New priv ate homes Tew private housing unilbs Units started by type of striicture Period Total unit units or more units Units authorized Units completed Homes sold Homes for sale at end of 1 period Vacancy rate for rental housing units percent Seasonally adjusted atinual rates 1978 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Oil Seasonally adjusted 2 Quarterly date entered in last month of quarter Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 19 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES TOTAL AND TRADE Business sales rose 0 6 percent in February while inventories rose 3 5 billion According to the advance survey retail sales rose 1 0 percent in March following little change in February and January BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 100 RETAIL INVENTORIES RETAIL SALES RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Total business l R tail Who esale 2 Iriventories Sales Period cj i bales32 Inventories3 Inven1 Sales23 tories5 Q T f 1 W DurNonable durable goods goods stores stores TVvfal Inventoiry sales ratio4 Non Total Durable durable busigoods goods ness l stores stores Retail Mill ons of d o liars seasonally adjusted Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar i The term business also includes manufacturing see page 21 Monthly average for year and total for month Book value end of period seasonally adjusted For annual periods ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly sales for monthly data ratio of inventories at end of month to sales for month 20 NOTE Data for 1978 are as revised in March Revised data not yet available for earlier periods Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census MANUFACTURERS1 SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND NEW ORDERS Manufacturers1 orders shipments and inventories rose in February In March according to advance data durable goods orders fell while shipments rose BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE INVENTORIES DURABLE GOODS NONDURABLE GOODS BIllIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE NEW 40 ORDERS I f I f f I lit t l t i l II I ti I I f It f I I I 1 I I I I t I t t 11t t f t I f I I I f I t f tI RATIO 220 r 180 INVENTOR Y SHIPMEN TS RATIO i K NONDURABLE GOODS XV TOTAL r j V it I 1 1 1 1 I I I I f II I 1 I I t I 1 I 11 I t I I t t f I 1975 II I M I M I T 1 f l i t if I f t M it n i f t 1 1 t f f I I I 11 I 1 I 1 1 1 I I t I w I I f f f SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCll OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Manutacturers shi pments 1 Manufact urers inv entories 2 Mamifacturer 3 new ore ers Durab le goods Capital NonNongoods Durable durable Total Total indus durable goods Total goods goods tries nondefense Miliions of dolli rs seasontally adjussted Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oet Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Period Total W jr NonDurable durable goods goods i Monthly average for year and total for month Shipments are the same as sales Book value end of period End of period Manufacturers1 unfilled Borders 3 Manufacturers inventory shipments ratio For annual periods ratio of weighted average inventories to average monthly shipments for monthly data ratio of inventories at end of month to shipments for month Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 21 PRODUCER PRICES PRICES In March the producer price index for all finished goods rose 1 0 percent seasonally adjusted Prices of finished consumer foods increased 1 2 percent and prices of other finished consumer goods rose 1 1 percent Prices of capital equipment increased 0 6 percent INDBC RATIO SCALE INDEX RATIO SCALE CONSUMER GOODS EXCLUDING FOODS I1i i i1iiii l i i I 1 I i i I l i 1 1 I i i Li i LLJ 1979 SOURCE DEPARTMENT OP UBOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS month y data seasona Qy adjusted Finishec1 goods In iermedi ate inaterials lotai consumer Capi finFoods ished Total and 2 Other tal feeds equip goods ment l Finished goods e xcludin g Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Total finConished sumer goods foods Total cons umer f c ods Conssumer goods Total Fhir able Nondur able i Formerly called producer finished goods 3 Intermediate materials for food manufacturing and manufactured animal feeds Data are not seasonally adjusted 22 rri AI Crud e materials Total NOTE Data revised for November 1978 Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Foodstuffs and feedstuffs Other CONSUMER PRICES In March the consumer price index for all urban consumers rose 1 0 percent also 1 0 percent seasonally adjusted Food prices increased 1 0 percent 1 1 percent seasonally adjusted Nonfood commodity prices rose 1 2 percent 1 1 percent seasonally adjusted and services prices were up 0 8 percent 0 9 percent seasonally adjusted INDEX RATIO SCALQ 240 INDDC RATIO SCALE SEE NOTE ON TABLE BELOW SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Period All items Food Comnlodities less food Food Commodities less food Services commodities Food at home All Food away from home All Services Durable Nondurable Seasonal y adjust ed Unad justed 1978 Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NOTE Beginnic g January 1978 data relate to all urban consu iners Earlie T data related to urbiin wage earners and cl erical workei s SOUrce Departnlent of Laboi Bureau o f Labor Statisties f f 23 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS Percen t change from pr seeding perio i season ally adJListed Period Percen t change from 3 inonths earlie r seasorlally adjilisted annua i rates Percen b change from 6 inonths earlie r seasontally adjiisted annua rates Consum er goods Consum er goods Consum er goods Total finished goods Capital Total finequipExclud ment ished goods Foods ing foods Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Capital Total equipfinExclud ment ished ing Foods goods foods ing foods Foods Capital equipExclud ment Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics i Annual changes are from December to December unadjusted NOTE Based on revised data tor November 1978 CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES Percerit change from pre ceding perio d seasoilally adju sted1 Period All items Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Food Commodities less food Services Percent c tiange frc m 3 months earlier Percent change frc m 6 mont hs earlier season illy adju sted annu al rates season illy adju sted annu al rates All items Services All items Food Commodities less food Services i Annual changes are from December to December unadjusted NOTE Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers Earlier data relate to urban wage earners and clerical workers 24 Food Commodities less food Source Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS Prices received by farmers increased 2 percent in March and prices paid by farmers rose 2 percent in the month ended March 1 5 INDEX RATIO SCALIJ I J RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID INTEREST TAXES AMD WAGE RATES OM BASE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Prices received by farmers Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar All farm products Crops Prices paid by far mers All items Livestock Family Producinterest and living tion taxes and items items products wage rates Index J s Percentage ratio of index of prices received by fanners to index of prices paid interest taxes and wage rates on base 2 The adjusted parity ratio reflects Government payments made directly to fanners Parity ratio l Actual Adjusted Index discontinued Consumer price index Department of Labor substituted in calculating total prices paid beginning January 1977 Source Department of Agriculture 25 MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK M1 rose slightly in March but M1 f continued to decline BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATJO SCALE 1 000 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE 1 000 AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES i i I i i n n r i t i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i I i i i i i M I i i t M t i I i i i i I n t I f M i i t i I r M r t t M i i i iI i1I i1 i ii i M t n t i rI t ft I SEASONAllY ADJUSTED SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Averages of daily figures billions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted iOverall measur es 1 Depositbs at coirimereial banks Period Ml M1 M2 M3 Currency Large CDs Savings Deposits at nonbank thrift institutions Time and savings Demand Tntnl 2 JL U tctJ Dec 270 5 Dec Dec 295 4 Dec 313 8 Dec 338 7 Dec 361 5 Mar 343 2 Apr 347 9 May 350 7 June 352 5 July 354 5 Aug 357 0 Sept 361 1 Oct 361 6 Nov 361 0 Dec Jan 359 9 Feb Mar Ml is currency plus demand deposits M1 is Ml plus savings deposits at commercial banks and checkable deposits at nonbank thrift institutions M2 is Ml plus time and savings deposits at commercial banks other than large certificates of deposit CDs and M3 is M2 plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions 26 3 Perecjnt ehaiige Dompone nts andL related items U S Government demand deposits unadjusted Ml M o o M Includes time deposits other than large CDs not shown separately 3 Annual changes are from December to December and monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a seasonally adjusted annual rate Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System PRIVATE LIQUID ASSET HOLDINGS NONFINANCIAL INVESTORS Averages of daily figures billions of dollars seasonally adjusted Currency and d eposits Other private money market instruments Negotiable certificates of deposit Total Period U S Tr easury secur ities Time d eposits Total liquid assets Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 1978 MarApr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Currency Demand deposits Commercial banks ShortNonbank term Savings marketthrift institubonds able setions curities Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT Millions of dollars monthly data seasonally adjusted Instalm ent credit e xtended Instalm mt credit liejuidated Net change in amount DUtstanding Fenodi Total i Automobile Revolving Total1 Automobile Revolving Total Automobile Revolving Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Includes mobile home and other not shown separately Source Board of Governors of the Federal Beserve System 27 BANK LOANS INVESTMENTS AND RESERVES Growth in loans and investments slowed further in December BILLIONS OF DOUARS RAT10 SCAU S1LUONS OF DOLLARS RATIO SCALE ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS 1 000 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS INVESTMENT IN OTHER SECURITIES INVESTMENT IN US GOVBINMENT SECURITIES i 11 11 i l l i I I I I I I SEASONALLY ADJUSTED END OP MONTH SOURCE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM P rinH COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Jan Feb v Mar Data are for end of period Averages of daily figures Annual data are for December s Member bank reserves series reflects actual reserve requirement percentages with no adjustment to eliminate the effect of changes in Regulations D and M 28 1978 Billions of dollars seasonally adjusted except as noted l A U c ommereial I anks All me mber banks Borrowiiags milL oans Investnaents Ileserves 2 8 lions of dollars Total unadji isted loans and Total ex Commer U S Gov Other invest cluding cial and NonReSeaernment secuTotal Total ments inter industrial securities borrowed quired sonal rities bank Mar 894 1 Apr 909 0 May 921 7 June 932 2 July 9 940 7 Aug Sept 952 4 Oct Nov Dec M I I I M I I l lll During 1974 total loans and investments were increased 0 6 billion due to a bank merger and were reduced 1 5 billion due to liquidation of a large bank 5 Loan classifications reduced these loans by 1 2 billion as of March Loan reclassifications reduced these loans by 0 2 billion in December 1977 Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonaDy adjusted annual rates Sources Uses External Period Total Internal 1 Credil market i unds Total Tntal I II III IV II III Longterm IV Shortterm 3 Other Total Discrepancy sources less uses Purchase of physical assets 4 Increase in financial assets Undistributed profits after inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments capital consumption allowances and foreign branch profits Stocks bonds and mortgages 3 Bank loans commercial paper finance company loans bankers acceptances and Government loans ms Plant and equipment residential structures inventory investment and mineral rights from U S Government Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System CURRENT ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS Billions of dollars except as noted Current liabilities Curre tit assets End of period Total SEC series FTC FRB series Cash Notes U S governand Invenment acsecuri counts tories ties receivable Other current assets Total Notes Other and current accounts liabilities payable Net working capital Current ratio II III IV II III Total current assets divided by total current liabilities 2 Based on data from Statistics of Income Department of the Treasury Based on data from Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing Mining and Trade Corporations Federal Trade Commission NOTE SEC series not available after 1974 See Federal Reserve Bulletin July 1978 for details regarding the series Sources Board of Governors of the Federal Keserve System Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission 29 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Most rates rose through mid April and then declined slightly PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM 10 10 CORPORATE Aaa BONDS MOODY S DISCOUNT RATE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK X I r TREASURY BILLS V lyiLU i t i i i I t I tI I ii i t t I i f t t i SOURCE SEE TABLE BELOW COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Percent per annum k Period Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Apr Week ended 1979 Mar 31 Apr J 8 U S Trc asury secur ity yields High grade Corporate Prime com Discount rate mercial municipal Aaa Constant imaturities 2 N Y paper bonds 1 bonds F R Standard 4 6 bills 3 year 10 year Poor s 3 Moody s months Bank H 6H r 6H X K 7J H H 9K gi H Rate on new issues within period Yields on the more actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities by the Treasury Department Weekly data are Wednesday figures Average effective rate for year opening and closing rate for month and week 30 J4 9 2 9H 9H 9J4 9 9Hr 9J 9H Prime rate charged by banks M 8H KW 11J4 ll r Newhome mortgage yields FHLBB i a 1 13 i i a 1 1 ZA i i a Effective rate in the primary market on conventional mortgages reflecting fees and charges as well as contract rate and assumed on the average repayment at end of 10 years Kates beginning January 1973 not strictly comparable with prior rates Sources Department of the Treasury Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Home Loan Bank Board Moody s Investors Service and Standard Poor s Corporation COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock prices continued to rise through mid April but then declined INDEX bEC INDEX OEC3U965 5 COMPOSITE STOCK PRICE INDEX NYSE I PER CENT 20 PERCf EARNINGS PRiCE RATIC ON COMMON STOCKS xl r x S P I I I 1971 I I I I 1974 I I l i t i I 1978 SOURCES NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD POOR S CORPORATION New York Stock Excllange indexes Dec Composite Industrial Transportation Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 Jan Feb Mar Week ended 1979 Mar 31 Apr a Average of daily closing prices 1 Includes all the stocks more than 1 Finance Utility Common stock 5 yields percent x Standard Poor s DowJones composite Dividend Earningsindex industrial ratio ratio average listed on the NYSE Includes 30 stocks Includes 500 stocks Standard Poor s series Dividend price ratios based on Wednesday closing prices Earnings price ratios based on prices at end of quarter 1 COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Com mon stock prices l Period NOTE All data relate to stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange NYSE Sources New York Stock Exchange Dow Jones Company Inc and Standard Poor s Corporation FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS AND DEBT In the first 6 months of fiscal 1979 the budget deficit was 44 2 billion A year earlier the deficit was 54 6 billion WLUONS OF DOLLARS BflJJONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS OUTLAYS SURPLUS OR DEFICIT I L I J FISCAL YEARS of ECONOMIC SOURCES DEPARTMENT OP THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND MIDGET mam Billions of dollars Period Fiscal year or period Transition quarter estimates estimates Federal debt end of period Total i Held by the public i Excludes non interest bearing public debt securities held by IMF 2 Estimates from Current Budget Estimates March 1979 Office of Management and Budget Surplus or deficit Cumulative total first 6 months Fiscal year 1978 Fiscal year Outlays Receipts Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget FEDERAL BUDGET RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the first 6 months of fiscal 1979 budget receipts were 31 7 billion higher than a year earlier and outlays were 21 3 billion higher BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS RECEIPTS CORPORATION INCOME TAXES Mi a l M il M OUTLAYS NONDBINSE l r I FISCAL YEARS SOURCES DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 1980 v COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars Outlays Rec jipts Nationa 1 defense Period Fiscal year or period Transition quarter estimates 1 1980 estimates Cumulative total first 6 months Fiscal year 1978 Fiscal year 1979 Total Indi Corpovidual ration Other income income taxes taxes Total i Estimates from Current Budget Estimates March 1979 Office of Management and Budget Total Interna Health and InDepart tional income terest Other ment of affairs security Defense military J Sources Department of the Treasury and Office of Management and Budget FEDERAL SECTOR NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the fourth quarter of 1978 according to revised data Federal receipts rose 21 4 billion annual rate and expenditures rose 19 3 billion yielding a deficit of 20 8 billion 2 0 billion less than the third quarter deficit In the first quarter of 1979 Federal expenditures rose 3 4 billion receipts data are incomplete BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 550 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS I I I I i I I L JUh SURPLUS 50 DEFICIT CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Billions of dollars quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates Period Personal Total tax and nontax receipts Corporate profits tax accruals Surplus Fcideral G 3vernmeiit expen litures Federal jiovernm ent receip ts deficit Subsidies Less Grants Wage less in aid PurIndirect Contri current accruals national chases Trans to State Net business butions surplus of less income Total of goods fer pay and interest for tax and and paid Govern disments local and nontax social inment en burse product governservices accruals surance terprises ments accounts ments Fiscal year Calendar year IV I IL III IV I Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Department of the Treasuryt and Office of Management and Budget 34 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES In dustria produ stion se asonally ad justed Period GerFrance many United CanStates ada M a y June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec p Jan Feb Mar 9 Japan Italy United United CanGerKing States ada Japan France many dom h S JOO Con sumer prices uiaadjuste i United Kingdom Italy Source National sources as reported by Department of Commerce Bureau of International Economic Policy and Research Office of International Economic Research in International Economic Indicators i Beginning January 1978 data relate to all urban consumers U S MERCHANDISE EXPORTS AND IMPORTS Millions of dollars monthly data seasonally adjusted Merc landise exports 1 Merc tiandise imports Gejneral im ports Domesti B exports Period Total domestic and foreign Total exports 2 Food Crude Food Crude bever mate Manu Total bever mate Manufac2 facrials c i f ages ages rials tured Total tured value 4 and to and and to and goods goods bacco fuels bacco fuels Mar Apr 11 630 May June July Aug Sept Oct 12 901 Nov Dee Jan Feb Mar Department of Defense shipments of grant aid military supplies and equipment under the Military Assistance Program are excluded from totals for all periods and from monthly detail beginning January 1978 1 Total includes commodities and transactions not classified according to kind Total arrivals of imported goods other than intransit shipments 4 C i f cost insurance and freight import value at first port of entry in the United States Data for 1973 are estimates trade Exports f a s less imports c i f Custoiris value F a s valu 3 Monthly average Mer chandise balance ExExports f a s ports f a s less imless imports cusports toms f a s value F a s value s F a s free alongside ship value basis at U S port of exportation for exports and at foreign port of exportation for imports NOTE Data beginning 1975 not strictly comparable with earlier data Source Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census 35 U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS In the fourth quarter of 1978 the current account deficit fell to 1 3 billion from 3 7 billion in the third quarter For the year 1978 the current account deficit was 16 0 billion compared with 15 3 billion in 1977 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of dollars quarterly data seasonally adjusted M erehandise Period Exports Imports Invcjstment inicome 3 12 KT a l eiHal Ual ance II III IV III IV a Receipts Payments Excludes military grants Adjusted from Census data for differences in timing and coverage Fees and royalties from U S direct investments abroad or from foreign direct investments in the United States are excluded from investment income and included in other services net 36 Nof LN I Net military transactions Nettravel and transportation receipts Other services net 1 Balance on goods and services l RemittanceSy pensions and nt l i T u tiicl nni U U1 lateral transfers 1 Balance on current account Source Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis U S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Continued In the fourth quarter of 1978 both capital outflows and capital inflows accelerated sharply The increased outflow was primarily concentrated in private accumulation of foreign assets The increased inflow reflected the acceleration of foreign official accumulation of U S assets which rose From 4 9 billion in the third quarter to 19 0 billion in the fourth quarter BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 30 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 20 CHANGE IN FOREIGN ASSETS IN THE U S NET A L SOURCE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS Millions of doDars quarterly data seasonally adjusted except as noted U S assets abroad net inerc ase capitsil outflow Period Total Other U S U S U S official Govern private reserve2 ment assets 2 assets assets I II III IV I II III IV Fore ign assets in the U S net incirease capiltal inflow HP Foreigri official ass ets Total Consists of gold special drawing rights SDB convertible currencies and the U S reserve position in the IMF 3 Quarterly data are not seasonally adjusted Total Assets of Other foreign foreign assets official reserve agencies Stati stical discre pancy Allocations Of Total of special sum of Seasonal the drawing adjustitems rights ment SDR with sign discrepreversed ancy U S official reserve assets net 1 unadjusted end of period Sources Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis and Department of the Treasury 37 Contents TOTAL OUTPUT INCOME AND SPENDING Page Gross National Product Gross National Product in 1972 Dollars Implicit Price Deflators for Gross National Product Changes in GNP and GNP Price Measures Nonfinancial Corporate Business Output Costs and Profits National Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Sources of Personal Income Disposition of Personal Income Farm Income Corporate Profits Gross Private Domestic Investment Expenditures for New Plant and Equipment EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Status of the Labor Force Selected Unemployment Rates Selected Measures of Unemployment and Unemployment Insurance Programs Nonagricultural Employment Average Weekly Hours and Hourly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries Average Weekly Earnings Private Nonagricultural Industries Productivity and Related Data Private Business Economy PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial Production Major Market Groups and Selected Manufactures New Construction New Private Housing and Vacancy Rates Business Sales and Inventories Total and Trade Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and New Orders PRICES Producer Prices Consumer Prices Changes in Producer Prices Changes in Consumer Prices Prices Received and Paid by Farmers j MONEY CREDIT AND SECURITY MARKETS Money Stock Private Liquid Asset Holdings Nonfinancial Investors Consumer Instalment Credit Bank Loans Investments and Reserves Sources and Uses of Funds Nonfarm Nonfinancial Corporate Business Current Assets and Liabilities of Nonfinancial Corporations Interest Rates and Bond Yields Common Stock Prices and Yields FEDERAL FINANCE Federal Budget Receipts and Outlays and Debt Federal Budget Receipts by Source and Outlays by Function Federal Sector National Income Accounts Basis INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS Industrial Production and Consumer Prices Major Industrial Countries U S Merchandise Exports and Imports U S International Transactions For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U S Government Printing Office Washington D C 20402 Price 1 30 single copy Subscription price 15 00 per year 3 75 additional for foreign mailing OQ U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1979 O

Interest Rates and Bond Yields

DATE: April 1979

PART OF:

Economic Indicators : April 1979

AUTHOR:

Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.)

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Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "Interest Rates and Bond Yields," in Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.) , United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report, 1946-1956 and United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee, 1956-. "April 1979," Economic Indicators (April 1979) : 32-32. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/1/item/348/toc/426119 , accessed on December 7, 2019.

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Economic Data