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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Collection: Paul A. Volcker Papers
Call Number: MC279
Box 24
Preferred Citation: IMF Meetings, 1981; Paul A. Volcker Papers, Box 24; Public Policy Papers,
Department of Rare Books and Special Collections, Princeton University Library
Find it online: http://findingaids.princeton.edu/collections/MC279/c143 and
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/archival/5297
The digitization ofthis collection was made possible by the Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis.
From the collections of the Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton, NJ
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
as of September 25, 1981
Consolidated Schedule for Chairman Volcker
Wed. Sept. 30
Thurs. Oct. 1
Fri. Oct. 2
1981 IMF Annual Meeting
As of
Fri. Sept. 25
Sat. Sept. 26
8-Breakfast
M. Weidenbaum
8:30-Photo at
Sh.Washington
9:30 - Board
8:45 - G-10
Sun. Sept. 27
9:30-Interim
Committee
Mon. Sept. 28
10-Board
Tues. Sept. 29
7:30 Breakfast
Secy Regan &
Kuwait Del.
10-Board
10-Testimony
House Banking
11:00 Secy Regan
speech
9-US Delegation
10-Opening
Session
(Pres. Reagan)
10:30-Interim
Committee
12:00 - Mr.
Schreiber (@ hotEl)
12:00 Lunch Brasilinvest??
OR
(Mrs. V - lunch
Q Rpgsn hnmP)
11:30-1 PAV
Buffet, Cont.
Illinois
12-Press Club
speech
2:30-VanLennep
3-Interim
Committee
4-Masao Fujioka
0
0
cc
IMF Reception?
6:30-8:30 Rec.
Amb. of Canada
0
6-G-Five
Meeting
and Dinner
cc
G-Five
Decatur House
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5-8 Cocktail-B
Goldman Sachs
F St. Club
(Mr. & Mrs.)
,
7:30-Drinks
Flanigans
4 Seasons
12:30-3 Lunch
Mfg. Hanover
Wash. Hilton
12:15-Lunch
Merrill Lynch
Shoreham
Lunch - Amb.
of Germany
3-Barclay's Ba. 2:30-Peter Wells
of London
4-Mr. Hosomi
3-Gov. Murray
5- Gov. Bank of of Ireland
Finland
4-John Howard
of Australia
Cocktails-6-8
Amb. of Italy
5-Fin. Min. &
Gov. Argentina
6-8 Reception
1st Nat Bank
of Chicago
5:30-8
ReceptionMarine Midland
6-8 Brown Bros
Harriman
8:30 ON - Morgan 6-30-8 Rec.
5-7 Reception
Stanley(Sulgrave) Amb. of England
Morgan Guaranty
6:30-8 Rec.
5:30-8-Northern
Chemical Bank
Trust @ F St. C.
' CONCERT - KC
9-Dinner
8-BT dinner
IMF dinner
Schroder's
Bankof America
Tial-3 by Tamagna'q
Supper-Inst.
Chevy Chase
Investors
@
_
our 5easons
12:30 Luncheon
@ Watergate
2:15-Tao-Ho Lee
Ex-Im Bank of
Korea
Meeting @ Water
3-Secy Regan & gate
Saudi Arabian
Del. (@ Treas.
5-Gov. Mayekawa
3-Buck Jones &
members of
Cattlemen's
Assn.
(J. Corrigan)
5-8 Reception
Dewey Daane
@ F St. Club
6-10 Reception
Merrill-Lynch
@ The Foundry
6-7:30 Reception
People's Rep. oE
chin,
5:30=7:30
6:30-Fed &
Treas. Reception Reception
National Galle ryBank of Tokyo
7:30-Dinner
Salomon Bros.
City Tavern
7:15 B.T.
Bob Roosa
Woodrow Wilson
House
IMF MEETINGS - 1982
Friday, September 3
Sunday, September 5
12-2
Reception & Buffet Lunch,
Continental Illinois,
Westin Hotel
Arrive Toronto
??
G-Five Dinner
3PM
Per Jacobsson Lecture,
University of Toronto
??
IMF Reception
5-9
Reception- Buffet
Istituto Mobiliare Italiano,
Regency Ballroom, Four Seasons
8PM
Reception & Buffet Supper,
Morgan STanley, University Club
??
Dinner - Governor and Mrs.
Richardson
Saturday, September 4
8:15 AM - G-Ten Meeting,
Sheraton Centre,
MEETING ROOM #1
7:30
Black tie Reception &
Dinner - Royal BAnk of
Canada, Royal Bank Plaza
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Monday, September 6
Tuesday, September 7
Wednesday, September 8
9:30-12 - International
Banking Group (G. Bell)
Four Seasons Hotel
12:00 - Luncheon - Brasilinvest,
12-3 -- Reception & Buffet
Royal York, Concert Hall
Luncheon - Manufacturers
Hanover, Royal York Hotel,
Concert Hall
12:30
Luncheon - Lloyds Bank
(Jeremy Morse),
Harbour Castle Hotel
5-8
5-7:30
5:30-8
5-7
5:307:30
6:309:30
? Luncheon - Standard
Chartered Bank of London
@ King Edward Hotel
Reception - Commerce Union
Bank (Dewey Daane), Hilton
Harbour Castle
Reception - Credit Suisse,
First Boston, John Molson
Room, 640 Fleet Street
5:30- Reception - Bank
7:30 of Tokyo,
Royal York Hotel,
Ballroom
Reception - Marine
Midland & Hongkong &
Shanghai Banks,
University Club
7-9
Reception - Gulf Int. Bank
Four Seasons Hotel
6:30
Reception - Security
Pacific Bank,
Four Seasons Hotel
Dinner - Geoffrey Bell,
Witteveen & Botta,
44 Park Lane Circle
8:30
Dinner - Frank Logan,
Bank of Commerce
at the Bank
7:00
Cocktails & Dinner Merrill Lynch @ Albany Club
8:30
Dinner - Deutsche Bank,
Four Seasons, Regency Ballroom
Reception UNICO, Four Seasons
Reception - American
Express, Roy Thomson Hall
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
5:30- Reception - Bank
7:30 of Canada, Ontario
Club, Commerce
Court South
7:30
Dinner - Salomon Bros
The Natimal Club
6-11
Merrill Lynch
Reception & Dancing
Nautical Evening,
Ontario Place
9:30 Dinner - National
Westminster Bank
Chandler House,
126 WArren Road,
Forest Jill
ud Cy
Schedule for Chairman and Mrs. Volcker
Saturday, September 26, 1981
8:30 AM
8:45
10:30
Photo for badge at Sheraton Washington
G-Ten
Interim Committee
- Room #1, Delaware Suite, SW Hotel
3:00
Interim Committee resumes
6:30-8:30
Reception - Ambassador of Canada, 2825 Rock Creek Drive
5-8
Cocktail Buffet-Goldman Sachs @ F Street Club
Sunday, September 27
9:30 AM
11-1
2:30
Interim Committee
Champagne Brunch - American Security Bank, Shoreham, Diplom;
Room
Per Jacobbsen Lecture ?? (IMF Atrium)
12:30
Mrs. Volcker - Luncheon at Mrs. Regan's residence
11:30-1
Buffet Luncheon, Continental Illinois, Shoreham Americana
Lower Lobby and Palladian Room
OR
7:00
Grupo, Serfin (in honor of Mexican Del) Meridian House
/1630 Crescent Place
IMF Reception
7:30
Drinks with Flanigans @ Four Seasons Hotel
8:30 ON
Reception & Buffet Supper - Morgan Stanley, Sulgrave Club
9:00
Dinner - Schroder's, Le Provencal, 1234-20th Street, NW
1:00
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Stop by Tamagnas (late) 7101 Connecticut Avenue, Chevy
Chase, Maryland
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20431
Fr: ,.:i4E F.
.
1.901
auc I8 11,1 10:0,12E
ADDRESS
7 TERFUND
7
19810E-FieE
August 17'
bk,rITikliffi,4.74`.:!4;,
Sir:
The following communication has been sent today to all members
informing them of the time and place of the 1981 Annual Meeting of the
Board of Governors:
"Annual Meeting of the Fund Board of Governors convenes
Sheraton Washington Hotel, Washington, D.C., Tuesday,
September 29, 1981, 10:00 a.m. Brief Agenda follows:
1.
Annual Report
2.
Report of the Chairman of the Interim Committee
3.
Annual Report and Review of Performance of
Development Committee
4.
Financial Statements and Audit Report
5.
Administrative Budget for Fiscal Year ending
April 30, 1982
6.
Amendments of Rules and Regulations
7.
Selection of Officers and Joint Procedures Committee
for 1981/82.
Meeting of Joint Procedures Committee scheduled for Thursday,
October 1, 5:30 p.m."
Very truly yours,
Leo Van Houtven
Secretary
Honorable Paul A. Volcker
Alternate Governor of the International
Monetary Fund for the United States
Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551
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Worldwide Communications via TRT 'ET Worldwide Comm
unications via TRT lor Wor
Lei
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
"--0,4141
A4IR4.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20431
iggi nor, 18
P
cp
MLLE ADDRESS
INTERFUND
OFF16:::
August 17, 1981
rt: 0.1
The following communication has been sent today to all members
informing them of the time and place of the 1981 Annual Meeting of the
Board of Governors:
"Annual Meeting of the Fund Board of Governors convenes
Sheraton Washington Hotel, Washington, D.C., Tuesday,
September 29, 1981, 10:00 a.m. Brief Agenda follows:
1.
Annual Report
2.
Report of the Chairman of the Interim Committee
3.
Annual Report and Review of Performance of
Development Committee
4.
Financial Statements and Audit Report
5.
Administrative Budget for Fiscal Year ending
April 30, 1982
6.
Amendments of Rules and Regulations
7.
Selection of Officers and Joint Procedures Committee
for 1981/82.
Meeting of Joint Procedures Committee scheduled for Thursday,
October 1, 5:30 p.m."
Very truly yours,
Leo Van Houtven
Secretary
Honorable Paul A. Volcker
Alternate Governor of the International
Monetary Fund for the United States
Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
i
_
CO-HOSTED BY:
MR. AND MRS. EARL G. DRAKE (WORLD BANK), AND
MR. AND MRS. ROBERT K. JOYCE (IMF)
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
WI
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2825 Ad/-elieekg-;yee
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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National Ltnft
WASHINGTON, D. C. 200Z4
VINCENT C. BURKE, JR,
August 17, 1981
CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD
Dear Mr. Volcker:
On the occasion of the Annual Meeting of
the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, it
gives Mrs. Burke and me great pleasure to extend
a personal invitation to you and your wife to
join us and our President and Mrs. Daniel J.
Callahan, III, at a private reception.
We will be receiving our guests on Saturday
afternoon, September_26,4981 at the Chevy Chase
Club, 6100 Connecticut Avenue, 4:30-6:30 P.M.
We look forward to seeing you again in
Washington.
Sincerely,
airman of the Board
The Honorable Paul A. Volcker
Member of the Board
Federal Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Avenue, N. W.
Washington, D. C. 20551
The favor of an early response is requested.
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19t1 AV 18 n110: 36
OFF teE GF
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
11111 AMERICAN SECURITY BANK
W JAR VIS MOODY
(202)624-4010
CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
The Hon. Paul A. Volcker
Chairman, Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve Building
Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20551
Dear Mr. Chairman:
On the occasion of the IMF-World Bank Meetings, American
Security is hosting a champagne brunch on Sunday,
September 27 and a bre_4kfast on Monday, September 28, in
the Diplomat Room of the Shoreham Hotel.
We would be greatly honored to welcome you as our guest.
On Sunday, brunch will be served from 11:00 a.m. to
1:00 p.m., and breakfast on Monday will be served from
9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
Enclosed is a card and return envelope. We would appreciate it if you would be so kind as to indicate whether or not
you will be able to be with us.
Sincerely,
Enclosure
American
Security Bank, N.A.,1501 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW., Washington, D.C. 20013
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Mr. Roger E. Anderson
Chairman of the Board of Directors
and Mrs. Anderson
together with the officers of
Continental Illinois National Bank
and Trust Company of Chicago
request the pleasure ofyour company
at a reception and buffet luncheon
on the occasion of the
World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings
on Sunday, the twenty-seventh of September
from halfpast eleven o'clock until two o'clock
The Lower Lobby and Palladian Room
Shoreham Americana Hotel
Washington, D.C.
RSVP before the eleventh of September
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
MORGAN STANLEY
The Managing and Advisory Directors
of Morgan Stanley
request the pleasure of your company
at a reception and buffet supper
at the Sulgrave Club.
Sunday, September twenty-seventh
from eight-thirty p.m. on
We hope that you will join us.
William H. Black
R.S.V.P.
(card enclosed)
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Richard A. Debs
Alfred Hayes
Sulgrave Club
1801 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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SCHRODER INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
120 CHEAPSIDE
LONDON EC2V 6DS
TELEPHONE:
01-588 4000
CABLES & TELEGRAMS:
SCHRODER LONDON EC2
TELEX:
LONDON 885029
DIRECTORS
JOHN C. BAYLEY (CHAIRMAN AND PRESIDENT)
P. W. BULFIELD (JOINT DEPUTY CHAIRMAN)
Wt. ERIK B. GASSED (SWISS)(JOINT DEPUTY CHAIRMAN)
THE EARL OF ANIL!, D.L.
DR. A. N. ASSEILY (LEBANESE/
GEOFFREY L. BELL
(EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT)
MICHAEL BENTLEY
W. F. W. BISCHOFF (GERMAN)
bUNDIS B. COATES (U.S.A.)
A. E. FORSYTH
RICHARD M. GRIFFIN
JOHN HULL
AJIT G. HUTHEESING
MARK J. MAGLO (U.S.A.)
G. W. MALLINCKNODT(GERMAN)
(EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT)
STEPHEN R. PETSCHLK (U.S.A.)
PHILIP ROBINSON
(EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT)
B.V.STMCKLAND
(EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT)
I. VAN MARLE (DUTCH)
G. G. WILLIAMS
ONE STATE STREET
NEW YORK, NY 10004
TELEPHONE:
(212) 269 6500
CABLES & TELEGRAMS:
SCHROBANCO NEW YORK
TELEX:
NEW YORK 126325
OUR REF:
PLEASE REPLY TO:
YOUR REF
One State Street
New York, N.Y. 10004
September 11, 1981
Mr. Paul Volcker
Chairman of the Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
Washington, D.C. 20551
Dear Paul,
This is just to confirm that we are very much looking forward to seeing you and Barbara at our small dinner party
on Sunday, September 27th at 8:30 P.M. for 9:00 P.M., at the Le
Provencal Restaurant, 1234 - 20th Street, Northwest, Washington,
D.C.
Johannes and Elizabeth Witteveen, Gordon and
Peggy Richardson, Joe and Trudy Fowler, Henry and Mabel Wallich,
and Henry and Elaine Kaufman and a few others of our old friends
will be attending.
Best wishes,
Youris s'ncerely,
.
f
Geoffrey Bell
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PE wit-ce cory
Schedule for Chairman and Mrs. Volcker
Saturday, September 26, 1981
8:30 AM
8:45
10:30
Photo for badge at Sheraton Washington
G-Ten
Interim Committee
- Room #1, Delaware Suite, SW Hotel
3:00
Interim Committee resumes
6:30-8:30
Reception - Ambassador of Canada, 2825 Rock Creek Drive
5-8
Cocktail Buffet-Goldman Sachs @ F Street Club
Sunday, September 27
9:30 AM
11-1
2:30
Interim Committee
Champagne Brunch - American Security Bank, Shoreham, Diploma
Room
Per Jacobbsen Lecture ?? (IMF Atrium)
12:30
Mrs. Volcker - Luncheon at Mrs. Regan's residence
11:30-1
Buffet Luncheon, Continental Illinois, Shoreham Americana
Lower Lobby and Palladian Room
OR
7:00
Grupo, Serfin (in honor of Mexican Del) Meridian House
/1630 Crescent Place
IMF Reception
7:30
Drinks with Flanigans @ Four Seasons Hotel
8:30 ON
Reception & Buffet Supper - Morgan Stanley, Sulgrave Club
9:00
Dinner - Schroder's, Le Provencal, 1234-20th Street, NW
1:00
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Stop by Tamagnas (late)
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9/25/81
FYI -- Ahti Korjalainen is the Acting Governor of
the Bank of Finland.
The Governor of the
Bank of Finland, Mauno Koivisto, is currently
serving as Prime Minister as well as Acting
President of Finland during President Kekkonen's
illness.
Keith Savard
September 21, 1981
Finland:
Recent Economic Developments
Domestic Developments
After three consecutive years of stagnation, the Finnish economy
by late 1978 began to experience a brisk upswing in
through 1980.
activity which persisted
Strong export growth and expanded investment contributed to a
rise in real GDP averaging more than 6 percent in 1979-80.
A significant
improvement in international competitiveness spurred export growth while
investment increased in response to high capacity utilization, the desire to
carry out energy saving capital expenditures, and the growth of corporate
sector income.
For 1981, growth in GDP is expected to be between 3-4 percent
as investment and export growth appear to have remained strong.
Unemployment
is likely to hold steady at around last year's level of 4.8 percent.
Con-
sumer price inflation, after reaching a rate of nearly 12 percent in 1980, is
expected to decelerate this year, reflecting a comprehensive two-year wage
settlement and an anticipated modest rise in import prices for the secondhalf of the year.
External Developments
Despite disparities between the cyclical developments in Finland
and its Western markets and the weakening in the terms of trade (reflecting
higher oil prices charged by the Soviet Union), the current-account deficit
for 1981 likely will show
billion deficit.
some improvement following last year's 81.3
This projected improvement stems from better-than-expected
export performance and a noticeable decline in the value of imports so far
this year.
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After having shown a steady increase through nearly all of 1979 and
subsequently into early 1980, the value of the Finnish markka has remained
unchanged against a basket of currencies of its major trading partners.
How-
ever, since mid-1980 the markka has depreciated approximately 20 percent
relative to the U.S. dollar.
Finland's net external debt at end-1980 is estimated to have been
between $8-9 billion, equivalent to about 18 percent of nominal GNP.
As of
March 1981, $6.8 billion was owed to banks in the BIS-reporting area, of
which $1.3 billion was owed to U.S. banks.
Economic Policy
The major concerns of the government's near-term economic policy
center on controlling inflation and maintaining employment.
However, with
the prospect of a slowdown in economic activity beginning soon, the government
has started to tilt its policies toward some relaxation and stimulation, including an easing of monetary policy.
This has been carried out through the
gradual lowering of interest rates on commercial banks' call money borrowing
and by reducing cash reserve requirements.
In regard to fiscal policy, the
government has begun to release various special deposits collected from
companies under special legislation designed to build reserves for combatting
recession.
U.S.-Finlandn Economic Relations
The United States is of moderate economic importance to the Finnish
economy, accounting for approximately 5 percent of exports and imports.
At
present there appear to be no burning economic issues between the two countries.
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Basic Indicators for Finland
Population (mid-1980):
GDP (1980):
Population growth (1970-80):
4.8 million
GDP per capita (1980):
$50.1 billion
0.3 percent
$10,400
GDP Origin (percent)
Agriculture and Forestry
Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities
Construction
Commerce, Banking and Insurance
Other
1979
13.9
32.2
9.8
18.0
26.1
10.1
29.6
7.4
26.0
26.9
Import Composition (percent)
EXport Composition (percent)
Agricultural and Primary
Products
Wood Products
Paper Products
Metal and Engineering
Products
Other Goods
1971
1972
1980
2.9
15.0
36.2
2.4
15.0
30.2
21.1
24.8
21.1
31.3
Raw Materials and
Industrial Inputs
Petroleum
Investment Goods
Consumer Goods
Other Goods
1972
1980
54.2
10.3
18.0
17.1
0.4
48.3
25.0
13.5
13.0
0.2
Major Trading Partners (1980)
Exports (Percent of merchandise):
Sweden (16.9), USSR (16.3), U.K. (11.5), Germany (10.9)
Imports (Percent of merchandise):
USSR (21.1), Germany (12.7), Sweden (12.0), U.K. (8.7)
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Selected Economic Indicators for Finland
(Percent change from previous period)
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
0.6
34.5
20.1
17.8
0.3
-1.8
8.9
14.4
0.4
2.8
11.8
12.7
2.3
16.5
15.4
7.8
7.2
22.5
17.3
7.5
4.9
6.3
14.7
11.6
n.a.
10.9(Apr/Apr)
14.8(Apr/Apr)
12.7(Q2/Q2)
2.2
4.0
6.1
7.5
6.1
4.8
5.1(May)
14.1
• 14.6
(3.9)
-0.5
-1.3
3.6(Q1)
3.1(Q1)
Domestic Indicators
Real GDP (Yr./Yr.)
M1 (Dec./Dec.)
M1 + Quasi Money (Dec./Dec.)
Consumer Price Index (Yr./Yr.)
Unemployment (average rate)
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
External Indicators
Exports (fob)
Imports (fob)
(Oil)
Trade Balance
Current Account
Total Reserves
(end of period)
Exchange Rate (period average;
Fin. mk. per U.S. $)
Exchange Rate (period average;
weighted average, 1974=100)
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5.5
7.1
(1.1)
-1.6
-2.2
6.3
6.9
(1.3)
-0.6
-1.2
7.6
7.1
(1.5)
0.5
-0.1
8.5
7.3
(1.4)
1.2
0.6
11.1
10.6
(2.5)
0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.3
1.8
2.1
3.679
3.864
4.029
4.117
3.895
3.730
101.1
99.9
106.1
117.2
117.3
113.6
0.5(Q1)
0.2(Q1)
1.8(July)
4.510(Aug)
113.1(Aug)
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Biographical information, Ahti Karjalainen, September 21, 1981.
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Restricted: “Kuwait: Recent Economic Developments,” Thomas A. Connors, September 25,
1981.
Confidential: Biographical profile, Abd al-Latif Yusif al-Hamad, August 13, 1981.
Confidential: Biographical profile, Hamza `Abbas Husayn, August 17, 1981.
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David Howard
September 22, 1991
Ireland:
Economic Developments
After experiencing quite rapid growth in real GDP in 1977
Economic Activity.
and 1978 -- about 6 percent in each year -- Irish economic activity decelerated
markedly and real growth is expected by the OECD to be around 2 percent (a.r.)
this year and next.
Industrial production (s.a.) in May -- the most recent
data available -- was 2 percent below the level recorded a year earlier but
was 8-1/2 percent above the December 1980 figure.
The Irish unemployment rate
has been rising; in April it was 13-1/2 percent (n.s.a.), 4 percentage points above
the year earlier level.
Inflation.
Consumer prices decelerated in 1978 to a rate of inflation somewhat
below 10 percent, but since then Irish inflation has been in the 15 percent range.
In the second quarter of 1981, consumer prices were 17 percent above the year
earlier level and 16-1/2 percent (a.r.) higher than in the first quarter of this
year.
Current Account.
Ireland has had a large current-account deficit in recent years;
The trade deficit stabilized in 1980,
in 1979 it was equal to 10 percent of GDP.
after nearly doubling in 1979 to a figure equal to about 18 percent of GDP.
Policy.
Monetary conditions were tightened in 1979 and principally aimed at
protecting the level of official external reserves and adjusting to Ireland's
membership in the European Monetary System.
For most of this year, the Central
Bank of Ireland's discount rate has been around 13-15 percent.
policy is intended to be contractionary.
Irish fiscal
It is estimated that in 1980, the
government borrowing requirement was 10-1/2 percent of GDP, somewhat less
than the borrowing requirements of 13-14 percent of GDP recorded in 1978 and 1979.
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Ireland:
Selected Economic Indicators
1981
1978
1979
Real GDP (% change)
6.3
1.9
Industrial Production
(% change, s.a.)
9.2
6.1
-1.6
6.3
n.a.
Consumer Price Index
(% change)
7.6
13.2
18.2
C.?
3.9
Exports ($ billions, s.a.)
5.7
7.2
8.5
1.9
2.0
Imports ($ billions, s.a.)
7.1
9.9
11.2
2.7
2.6
Trade Balance ($ billions, s.a.)
-1.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.8
-0.6
Current Account ($ billions)
-0.3
-1.5
-1.4
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1980
1.5e
Ql
02.
n . F••
n.a.
n.a.
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Biographical information, Charles Henry Murray, September 9, 1981.
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Australia's Treasurer replies to Reserve Bank rebuke
ECONOMIC
NEWSLETTER, 2/9/81. Australia's Federal Treasurer, Mr. John Howard,
said on 20/8/81 that the Government's policy had not been as successful
in containing the growth of money supply (M3) as it had been in terms of
other economic targets.
He was replying to criticism by the Reserve Bank of Australia of the
Government's handling of monetary policy last year. The criticism was
contained in the bank's annual report tabled in Parliament.
The bank reported that it had approached the Government last year
seeking an increase in interest rates "in August, September, and again early
in November, but it was not until December that agreement was reached on a
package of policy action".
Mr Howard said the bank was saying that it would like to see an even
tighter administration of monetary policy.
"I suppose that from the point of view of a central bank, and given
its responsibilities, that is an understandable objective," he said. "But the
Government, in deciding upon the appropriate degree of firmness in this area,
is not only concerned with economic and monetary considerations, it has also
got to be concerned with other considerations including, of course, political
ones.
The bank has a certain charter and a certain place in the monetary
system which is separate from the Government. It has an annual report and it
has a right to express its views in its annual report. It has done so."
The Reserve Bank's report said that monetary policy in 1980-81 was
"more accommodating to increases in wages and prices than was desirable". It
noted that while the broad measure of money supply, M3, showed a growth of
12.7 per cent (compared with the target of 9-11 per cent), a broader measure,
M3 plus borrowings from the public non-bank financial institutions, grew by
nearly 16 per cent.
Maureen Walsh
September 24, 1981
Australia:
Domestic Developments.
Recent Economic Developments
Since mid -1979, Australia has experienced a broad-based
expansion in domestic demand initiated by a surge in the development of energy
resources.
However, recent domestic and international trends point to a slowing
of the investment boom in energy resources.
The rate of growth of initiated
investment projects has dropped from 11.5 percent in the last half of 1980 to 1.8
percent in the first half of 1981, in part due to high interest rates, sluggish
commodity prices, and Australia's continuing labor unrest.
In an effort
to introduce greater flexibility in wage negotiations, the Arbitration and
Conciliation Commission abandoned its national wage indexation system on July 31
and returned to free collective bargaining, last used in 1975.
A strong Australian dollar has had a moderating influence on the cost of
imported goods, particularly petroleum.
But several factors, particularly skilled
labor shortages and credit expansion, may push the current 9 percent inflation
rate up to double digit levels.
The government predicts a 10-3/4 percent inflation
rate in fiscal 1981-82 to end June, and expects average wages to rise by
13-1/2 percent in the same period.
External Developments.
Strong investment demand requiring capital goods imports
and a rising deficit in the invisibles account produced a current account deficit
of S3.7 billion for 1980, after a noticeable improvement in the current account
balance in 1979.
However, for the fiscal year ending in June 1981, the current
account reached a record deficit of 55.4 billion.
As import growth continues at
record high levels, the projected current account deficit will reach 4-1/2 percent
of GDP in this fiscal year.
The record 56.6 billion inflow of private capital
in 1980-81 is expected to decline slightly to S5-6 billion in 1981-82.
Given
the strong movement in capital inflows and the favorable
growth prospects for
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the economy, the Australian dollar has appreciated against a basket of
currencies of its major trading partners and has currently reached its highest
level since 1976.
However, the Australian dollar has declined 4 percent
against the U.S. dollar so far in 1981.
Economic Policy.
For the past several years Australian economic policy
has been dominated by the need to reduce the rate of inflation and to rectify
the large factor price imbalance that emerged from a period of domestic wage
explosion.
The achievement of these objectives through relatively restrictive
fiscal and monetary policies has been regarded as a precondition for achieving
a sustainable rate of growth and employment and for ensuring external stability.
The government budget for fiscal year 1981-82 to end June is designed to ease
pressure on interest rates by reducing public sector borrowing.
A projected
$1.5 billion domestic surplus will be generated in part by increased
sales tax rates.
The 1981-82 target range for growth in monetary aggregates
is 10-11 percent; however, last year's 12.7 percent growth in M3 well exceeded
the 9-11 percent target range, mainly due to massive capital inflows.
U.S.-Australian Economic Relations.
As Australia seeks to develop its vast
energy and mineral resources in the coming years, the United States, currently
Australia's second largest source
of direct investment, will continue to
remain both a major investor and trading partner.
At present there appear to be
no pressing economic issues between the two countries, although U.S. officials
have expressed some interest in reports that Australia is committed to reducing
its high industry protection levels and eliminating preferences for Australian
goods in government purchasing.
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Selected Australian Economic Indicators
(Percent change from previous period)
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Real GDP (Yr/Yr)
M1 (Yr. June/Yr. June)
3.6
14,1
M3 (Yr. June/Yr. June)
Consumer Price Index (Q4/04)
14.4
0.9
8.4
11.0
1.7
8.6
8.0
4.4
16,7
11.8
2.7
12.9
12.3
n.a.
12.2 (Yr. May/Yr. May)
12.7 (Yr. May/Yr. May)
13.5
12.3
7.8
10.0
9.3
8.8 (May 81/May 80)
4.7
5.6
6.4
6.2
6.1
5.5 (July)
Domestic Indicators
Unemployment (average rate)
(in billions of U.S. dollars)
External Indicators
13.0
10.9
0.9
2.1
-1.5
, 13.2
12.2
1.1
1.0
-2.6
14.1
14.0
1.1
0.1
-3.9
18.6
16.2
1.6
2.4
-2.2
21.7
20.1
2.4
1.6
-3.7
19.3 (January
20.9 (January
n.a.
-1.3 (January
-6.8 (January
2.9
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.7
2.4 (July)
0.3
1.2
1.6
3.7
4.7
3.2 (July)
1.086
1.141
1.150
1.106
Exchange Rate (end of period;
weighted average, May 1970=100) 92.2
89.4
82.7
83.3
Exports (fob)
Imports (fob)
Oil
Trade Balance
Current Account
Total Reserves minus Gold
(end of period)
Gold (national valuation;
December) 1/
Exchange Rate (end of period;
U.S. $ per A $)
1.181
87.1
-
August)
August)
-
August)
August)
1.145 (August)
95.0 (August)
1/ As from August 1977 Australian gold reserves have been revalued monthly on the basis of the average U.S. dollar
price of gold in the London market during the preceding month.
2/ Trade figures are at annual rates, not seasonally adjusted.
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Restricted: Memorandum from Charles J. Siegman to Chairman Volcker, "Likely Issues to be
Raised by Argentina's Minister of Treasury and Central Bank," September 25, 1981.
Restricted: "Future Reagan Administration Policy on Graduation of Borrowers from the
MDBs," Clark Anderson, September 25, 1981.
Restricted: "Recent Economic Developments in Argentina," Yves Maroni, September 17,
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