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Hotel Trianon Palace,
Versailles, July 29, 1926.
_ID=ITIAL
Dear '!r. Tiarrison:
I have a big batch of mail from the Bank, received yesterday, but am
unable to deal with it for a few days.
This is to confirm a cable which I am sending out as per enclosed copy,
on the subject of Dr. Miller's testimony.
It is of course most confidential.
I took opportunity to make some ;articular inquiries of Ir. Gilbert in
regard to the position of the Reichsbank, its status and the question of the disclosure of foreign balances, etc.
It seems that not only are the foreign bal-
ances most carefully safegu-rdod in the statement, as I wrote you, but the law
actually prohibits full disclosures on this subject, even to the Directors.
The object, as you will appreciate, is to give the Bank the fullest freedom in
dealing iith valuta accounts and -:iith their reserves so as to afford the utmost
That Mr. Gilbert told me merely
protection to the exchange
ue of the mark.
emphasized the serious char
er of the disclosure, so I explained the situation
to the Secretary, who expre
d the view that it was a rather serious matter.
I told him I was going to try and have it eliminated from the record.
therefore is sent in the hope that in some way it can be arranged.
`Sy cable
I will hsve
to leave the method entirely to you, and apologize for bothering you once more.
post regards.
Sincerely yours,
!Ir. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Federal Reserve
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Ism Reserve
York.Bank of St. Louis
Federal
Bank of 'few York,
Hotel Trianon Palace,
Versailles, July 30, 1926.
Dear Mr. Mellon:
You wil] recall that the Poincare Government had not made its declaration
to the Chamber until just before we left Tours, and since then we have been able to
form some opinion of the prospects as a result of the change of Government.
Further talks with Governor Moreau and Vice-Governor Rist of the Bank of
France and with M. Monnet seem to justify my sending a cable to New York of which
the enclosed is a copy.
see it.
It will give you a succinct picture of the situation as I
Gilbert went over it this morning and agrees that it tells the story.
The fact seems to be that there is much disappointment that the Ministerial
statement was not more comprehensive, for in fact it leaves the country in doubt as
to what is to be done in regard to debt ratification, stabilization, foreign credits
and the policy as to the floating debt.
110
Aside from a few very general statements, the entire Ministerial declaration was confined to matters of taxation and proposes increases in taxes estimated
to amount to 11 billion francs, without any proposal whatever as to taxes upon real
estate or agricultural profits.
The only sualification which I feel justified in suggesting as to a comprehensive program results from a conversation which I have just had with M. Francqui,
who had just left the Prime Minister.
He urged upon him a course somewhat similar
to that being pursued in Belgium, the development of a full dress program, reducing
the value of the franc and stabilizing it promptly.
Me tells me that at first
Poincar4 appeared rather opposed to so comprehensive a program, but finally admitted
the need for cooperation between France, Belgium and Italy and asked Francqui to return later today.
The latter, as you know, is both energetic and enthusiastic, and
he may have overstressed M. Poincarg's reaction to his suggestion.
41,
Of that I shall
be unable to judge until I see Messrs. Moreau and Rist again tomorrow.
It would
Mr. Mellon.
2.
ov,
°lb
July 30, 1926.
not justify my changing the terms of my cable.
Further evidence
me enclosed,
through Governor
Norman, appreciate
who was here
of reaches
the cable
I will greatly
it yesterindeed, and i
day and today, that the new
officers
the Bank
France are under
determined
to conditions,
use
proposals
it of
contains
areofinadvisable
present
I
His impressions
of
every means at their command
to force
a thoroughgoing
reform.
hesitate
to send
me a few words
by telegraph
to that effect.
M. Moreau are identical with my ownMr.
- that
he is
man,insomewhat
in after a
Gilbert
anda Iquiet
arrived
Paris inlacking
good time
experience, but with ample
determination.
ride,
but I am sorry to say that he found Mrs. Gilbert suffering
Word also reaches
that the Government
has assure
taken vigorous
to
and me
discomfort.
The doctors
him that measures
it is nothing
import
stop all annoyances to travelers,
and
so far as I can learn,
successful
progressing
satisfactorily.
He leftthey
for are
London
with Governor Nor
in public places, although
ofto
irritation
seem tothe
arise
in thewerestaubutcauses
desired
join me instill
expressing
pleasure
had in our me
rants and shops.
ing you good wishes.
Very sincerely yours,
While I may be a week in Holland, where my address will be care of the
Nederlandsehe Bank, Amsterdam,
my mail
and telegraph address on the Continent will
Hon. Andrew
W. Mellon,
c/o American Embassy,
be care of Messrs. Morgan,
Harjes
8 Company, 14 Place Vendome, Paris, who will be
ROME,
Italy.
kept advised.
If you feel
BS :M able to send me any comments in regard to the contents
(2) That owing to the existence of the pos
TO of the schedule of 7aymento, it was entirely
7110.112"1177
R. B. jARREN
Imagine these points being put into any form acc
(3) That the Government had no intention o
41
comnsTioil 02 JULY 31, 1926
ebt e-T
loreau said that he was aware of the exi
ter, but did not '`now what use had been nr.de of it during the present
rinic,,tr-y, although he felt sure that H. Poincare also knew of it.
( page 3
)
conversations with the Bank of France and would not do so without their opinions.
He would net ask what Mr. Norman had talked with them about, but he was willing
to wager that Mr. Norman had discussed at great length the
question of the inde-
pendence cf the Bank of France, as he knew that this was a subject on which he
felt very deeply.
Referring to the question of the introduction of a dual currency which had
been raised by Mr. Riot in a previous discussion, Governor Strong remarked that
while the scheme might have certain advantages, he wasconvinced that its principal
effect would be completely to discredit the existing unstable currency and accelerate its depreciation, because the very reason for which it was proposed, ramely,
that it would remove certain difficulties of transacting business under an unstable currency, would at the same time remove a certain amount cf resistance to
the continuance of such an unstable currency in circulation.
He could accept the
idea of such
was a
intended
dual currency
ultimately
system
to only
get rid
withentirely
one reservation,
of the franc,
and that
as hewas
wasthat
convinced
it
tha
the effect would be rapidly to destroy whatover value there was left of the franc
Mr. Rist questioned this position and said that he believed that it would ha
a tendency to discourage the flight of capital because it had worked to some extent in the Saar.
Governor Strong, however, remarked that while he was not completely familiar
with this phase of monetary economics, he was of the opinion that the example of
the Saar, a small community attached to one much larger, was by no means a precedent for such a country as France.
He cited at some length then the example of
Germany during the period when the old Reichsmark circulated side by side with th
Rentenmark, and explained with what difficulty the two currencies were maintained
in circulation.
It would, in fact, have been quite impossible in Germany if it
had not been that at the time the Rentenmark was introduced,
entire value
cf
all the the
Reichsmarks
in circ
country.
At the same time
( page 4
)
time when the Rentenmark was first introduced and the printing of Reichsmarks
IIPstopped, and the time when Gcvernor Schacht took charge of the situation, the
volume of Reichsmarks in circulation was entirely inadequate to meet the needs cf
commerce in completing the contracts which had been undertaken.
In other words,
everybody in Germany, whether concerned in domestic or foreign trade, whether industrial establishment or bank, was short of Reichsmarks.
Governor Schacht had ccrn-
ered the entire available supply of Reichsmarks and consequently was able to make
his discount and rationing policy entirely effective.
apply in France at the moment, since
This, however, would hardly
he currency situation was by nc means compar-
able, to what it had been in Germany at the time of the stabilization.
In fact,
given proper administration, it should be substantially easier fcr France to stabilize its currency and return to normal monetary conditions than it had been for Germany.
Referring again to the letter which it was desired that M. Moreau should write,
M. Moreau asked if it would be agreeable that this letter, which after all would be
a sort of formal affair, should be dated at about the time of the first verbal invitation to undertake these discussions, that is, about the day before Governor Strong
returned to Paris.
This was acceptable to Governor Strong, who also agreed to sup-
ply the Bank of France with a reply.
In this way, the purpose and seep!) of these
conversations would be made a matter of reca'd, so that if at any time either bank
should be called into question, a satisfactory record would be available.
Referring to the subject of the possibility of entering into some sort of tan-
gible negotiations at some time, Governer Strong remarked that, while it was entirely outside his field or his interest to discuss the debt negotiatiens, it nevertheless was a fact that the ratification of the American debt settlement was an
absolute antecedent to any practical considerations of inter-bank cooperation.
was understood that the Chamber would adjourn Saturday, August 8th.
111
It
If this were
the case, since it seemed hardly probable that the debt negotiations
could be ratified before that time, it would postpone for many weeks any possibility
of ccoper-
( page 5
)
ative action.
It was explained, however, that the Chamber was not to adjourn;
it was
merely to be given e leave of absence, the difference being that with the Chamber
on leave, it could be reconvened at the call of the Ministry, while if adjourned,
it could only be recalled upon the formal convocation of the President.
In other
words, provided the Ministry wished to consider the debts, the suspension of sittings next Saturday would not imply that all possibility cf ratification was indefinitely postponed.
There was indeed some possibility that the Ministry itself
might wish to hasten ratification, providing certain difficulties regarding the
terms of the settlement cculd be arranged.
It was understood that there had been
within the last very few days a perceptible change of attitude upon the part of
the press, and even upon the part of the Ministry.
All present agreed that the
change in tone on the part of the press had been quite distinct.
Referring again to the matter of stabilization, Mr. Strong remarked that very
like
be n
of R
be r
gold
gold
fect
the
and
opin
to t
( page 6
)
shipments amounting to 95 million dollars.
Such gold might be provided in
various ways, possibly even through some sort of cooperative arrangement with
the Bank of England concerning the gold which was carried in the statement of the
Bank of Fran Fa as held abroad, or if no feasible means were dissevered for pur-
chasing such gold, it is possible that a gold credit might be arranged in New York
which would permit the statement of the Bank of France to carry a certain figure
es being on demand deposit abroad.
This wculd assume, of course, that the present
form of statement of the gold held abroad by the Bank cf France took on a more
realistic form.
The question then arose as to how, once the franc was stabilized
and the Bank of France received a certain supply of foreign bills, such foreign
bills could be carried in the statement, or indeed purchased by the Bank, owing to
the lialtfirbitrarily established by law upon their circulaticn.
This at the
'resent time had only a very small margin, and if, as was expected, it was necessary
to expand
ties,
the as
circulation,
after everythey
fcreign
wouldbill
presently
purchased
finditthemselves
would be necessary
in serioustodifficulexpand the
liabilities by an equal sum.
For this there were two proposals:
(1) One offered by Governor Strong, that while it might be necessary at first
to expand the circulation, before long the Bank would find itself in the necessity
of contracting credit in order to prevent a disastrous inflation of prices.
Under
such circumstances, the holdings of domestic bills would decline, and their places
would be taken to some extent at least by holdings of foreign bills.
The exact
difficulties of this operation, of course, depended to some extent upon the status
of the Bank, as it did not seem to be entirely clear from the conversation whether
or not foreign bills could legally be entered under the item of the portfolio in the
statement or tether they could only be carried under the miscellaneous assets.
At
any rate, it was clear, according to M. Rist, that presently the Bank would find itself seriously troubled by the fact that circulation had reached its legal limit.
411
He wished to inquire whether or not public opinion in the United States would
be
disturbed at this time by a request on the part of the
Bank of France to remove the
( page 7
)
legal limit on circulation.
Governor Strong replied positively that if such a proposal were made as an
IP411
isolated instance, it would undoubtedly have an unfavorable effect abroad, but
that if it were part of a comprehensive program, it probably would have no such
influence.
It was also remarked at this point that, as far as the Chamber of Deputies was
concerned, a request on the part of the Bank for the removal of the legal limit on
circulation would hardly be disturbing if it was coupled with the simultaneous request on the part of the Bank to be given absolute and full responsibility for the
maintaining of the exchange at par and the currency at a stable val-le.
Referring to the effect on public opinion, Governor Strong remarked that it was
quite true that foreign opinion had very largely lost confidence in the Bank of
France, because abroad it was regarded simply as an agency of the French Treasury,
and that unless this impression could be dispelled, any action taken regarding the
411
circulation would be simply regarded as being a demand by the French Treasury for a
right to more inflation.
Until the Bank of France was more independent of the
Treasury, there is no doubt that foreign opinion would be somewhat skeptical of all
currency measures.
M. Moreau then said that they intended to ask the Ministry for a convention
which would guarantee that during the period of stabilization the Governor and ViceGovernor of the Bank should be free from arbitrary removal by the Ministry, that is,
that they should not be removed without the advice and consent of the Beard of Regents.
Mr. Warren remarked that he saw no reason to limit this provision to the period
of stabilization.
M. Moreau said that that. was complimentary, but that they did not feel inclined
to ask so much of the present Ministry, whereupon Governor Strong added that in those
411
matters affecting the prestige of the Bank, it was not necessary that the Governor
should be personally too modest.
( page 8
)
Once again at this point the question of the problem of controlling the
market came up, and Governor Strong remarked how greatly this would be simplified if a part of the State's debt to the Bank should be converted into 30-day,
60-day or 90-day Treasury bills of a sort readily negotiable in the market.
Dr. Rist remarked that there had been formerly an active market in such
bills, but that it had been destroyed.
Mr. Strong said that it would greatly facilitate the entire operation of stabilization if there were developed in Paris a satisfactory, smooth-working money
market, for which these Treasury bills offer a very natural, available medium.
M. Moreau remarked that, for the present, while he recognized the inherent
advantages of this idea, it was quite out of the question, because the Government
was using these Bons de la Defense as a means for raising money for current expenses, and it was not urrtil the Government had satisfactorily put its budget in order
that it would be possible for the Central Bank tc employ such operations primarily
1110
in the interests of controlling the money market.
Mr. Strong recognized the strength of this, and remarked that the existence of
a free market in this kind of paper would possibly facilitate the tosition of the
government during certain cf the difficult days of the stabilization period.
(Al-
though this question of converting part of the advances to the state into negotiable Treasury bills, and the employment of these Treasury bills in open market operatione of the type familiar in New York and London, has been introduced in every
conversation between Governor Strong and MM. Moreau and Rist, this is the first
time that it has clearly appeared that both of them understood both the character
and object of the operation and recognized its feasibility and applicability to the
Paris market.
It was quite clear today that both cf them had accepted the idea,
at least in theory, and were prepared to consider its practical application).
In conclusion, Mr. Strong remlrked that in go /ing over the proposals of M.
Poincar4 it seemed to him that while the object, namely, the equilibrium of the
budget, was commendable, the real problem of an equitable redistribution
of taxa-
( page 9
tion was not even touched.
)
Would it be possible, he asked, to secure modifica-
tions or amendments of those tax proposals before they have become incorporated
in law.
Both M. Moreau and Dr. Rist agreed that this was quite, out of the question
at the present time, and that the tax program as presented was necessary to be accepted because of its political expediency.
Recognizing this, Governor Strong then remarked that at least, if it was not
possible to exerci/e any influence on the part of the Ministry in regard to its
tax program, it was certainly possible for the Bank to bring some pressure to bear
on the Government in its process of adjusting the relations between the State and
the Bank, in the process for example of revaluing their gold.
I
to
Motel de 31Europo,
Amsterdam, August 1, 1926.
Dear Mr. Mellon:
I have never seen
situation change with the lightning speed that
has been the case in France.
7hon I despatched my letter to you through the
Embassy, it seemed to have been determined by M. Poincare that he would proceed
with his tax progrmn, secure certain additional authorizations from the Chamber
of Deputies, defer consideration of debt ratification and the general program of
stabilization until the Fall, and then let the Parliament adjourn on Saturday, the
7th.
During Saturday, the whole situation seems to have changed, as I learned
from conversations with the officers of the Bank of Franco, with M. Francqui and
with my friend, 'I. Joan .:Sonnet.
The Prime Minister seems nag to have become con-
vinced that the ratification of the Aierican and British debt settlements must be
brought about immediately, if possible, and that steps looking towards stabilization
must be attempted immediately thereafter.
rithout recounting the detail of the long talks that I have had with these
gentlemen, I believe that the following considerations have moved him to change his
policy.
(1) The accumulating evidence of dissatisfaction in political circles and
of the public with the incompleteness of his proposals to the Chamber, manifested
partly in the press, but mainly in the course of the rate of exchange.
(2) Vary positive statements which have been made to him by some of his
associates and by officers of the Bank of France that something further must be
done than ambraced in his original proposals, if the Treasury is to be protected.
(3) Some communication from the Bank of France and possibly from his
own officials in the Treasury indicating that the Treasury is not in position to
August 1, 1926.
Mr. Mellon.
2.
moot the State obligations beyond a period of say four to six reeks, unless
further measures are adopted.
(4) Vigorous representations which have been made to him by '4. Francqui
an to the perils of the present situation, coupled with the rather spectacular
success which he seems to have achieved in the enforced consolidation of a large
portion of the Belgian floating debt and its immediate conversion next Monday into
preferred stock of the newly incorporated Belgian State Railway lines.
Of course all of this information reaches me in the greatest confidence,
but, as I have indicated, from most reliable sources.
One of the most significant
developments is his decision, already announced, to have the Parliament recess but
not to adjourn, and the further information I have that it in quite likely that
the recess 1111 not occur for another fortnight.
A recess of the Parliament leaves
the Uinistry in position to recall it at any time, and adjournment would postpone
the reassembling of Parliament until next October.
I am writing you this because it is now my belief that the success or
failure of this Ministry and of such program ss they may adopt will be determined
by the success or failure of efforts to secure ratification of the debt agreements
by the Chamber.
I am informed that the letter which you addressed to M. Lacour-
Gayet on the 14th or 15th of Juno in in the hands of the Finance Minister, but
either because its terms may not exactly meet the existing situation or possibly
even because it was addressed to an official and not to a Minister, it may not appear to be serviceable even in allaying the fears which undoubtedly exist and are
widespread and, I believe, conscientious as to the commercialization clause, being
Paragraph 7 of the debt agreement.
The proposal now being discussed is to endeavor to secure from the American Government come atatemont which will be reassuring on the subject of the sale
Mr. Mellon.
3.
of bonds to the public.
August 1, 1926.
The actual phraseology of such a letter would, I
gather, need to be devised with great skill in order, on the one hand, to give
satisfaction in France, and on the other hand, to avoid its being understood by
the people at home as more than an interpretation of the meaning of the agreement.
I gather that, while it would be most helpful if something could be stated in the
nature of a security clause, it is realized that this would be most difficult to
bring about, and that the point might be covered to the satisfaction of the French
Government and the French people by a preamble to the act of ratification, the
substance of which would be to state that the agreement had been entered into in
coasequence of the action of the Funding Commission in applying a rule of capacity
to the negotiations, and that while no assurances are asked pn the score of capacity
if circumstances Change and the capacity to pay is materially impaired, the French
Government would then rely upon the fairness of the American Government to consider
proposals for a review or reconsideration of the debt in the light of existing capacity.
Here again the question of language is of course of the utmost importance.
Such a clause might be framed in a dignified way without any unfavorable reaction
either in France or at home.
On the other hand, it might be construed an a reser-
vation and prove unacceptable.
I have again taken the ponition and reiterated that the subject of the
debts is one with which I can have no concern, and that if this matter is approached
it must be done through the usual channels or in some way which will not in any
manner invelve me in the discussion, indicating that `.he only relations which are
possible by Lao are with the officers of the Bank of France.
Quito privately, I
have suggested tc 11r. lionaet that it might be wise for him to have a further talk
with Ur. Gilbert upon the letter's return fram London on Tuesday, and that he cannot look to me to act as an interme iary.
I have also advised Mr. Gilbert of the
4.
Mr. Mellon.
August 1, 1926.
substance of whet I have learned in Paris, so I apprehend that you may hear
from him shortly after his return.
After most careful consideration of everything that has been disclosed
during my stay in Paris, I now rather hold the opinion that if arrangements could
be made for an exchange of letters satisfactory in terms to you and the President,
which would meet the pressing needs of the Prime qinister to secure ratification
of the debt agreement in the Chamber, the thole course of affairs in France might
instantly change for the better and the most serious crisis, which i3 now likely
to arise within the next twc or three months, be thereby avoided.
I have been sounded unofficially on the subject of credits and have taken
the position that certain things are prerequisite to anything in the nature of negotiations, the principal ones being:
(1) Ratification of the debt agreements.
(2) The adoption of a comprehensive program which would be acceptable to
us, to the bankers of the French Government in America, and to the other banks of
issue and private bankers who might become engaged in other gold standard countries.
(3) That oven the adoption of such program by the Government and its approval by Parliament would not be sufficient unless provision was mado for continuity in the execution of the plan over a term of years, and covering that point it
is utated to me by the officers of the Bank of France that they propose to insist
and believe the Government will agree to give the Bank unhampered authority to
execute a plan over a period of three or four years without governmental interference.
Of course nothing in the nature of commit3ents or oven by way of encouragement thot credits can be arranged has boon offered to these gentlemen, beyond
the bare statement that, the conditions being favorable, we will listen at a later
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
5.Bank of St. Louis
Mr. Mellon.
August 1, 1926.
Mr. nollon.
6.
°It
August 1, 1926.
even though one of rather slender and indefinite character, could be furniehed
at a later date to enable those who have made definite commitments against ratification to retreat from their position, it might be posoible to secure ratification and thereupon develop a really constructive and complete program of reorganization.
I am terry to trouble you with this long letter during your holiday.
If you fool that it is worth-while tc send mo any communication, it would reach me
through the Legation at the Hague in the Italian 2mbausy code, as I am, arranging
with the Minister here to take care of telegrams for me.
With kindest regards, believe me
sincerely yours,
Hon. Andrew W. Mellon,
c/o American Connulate,
ROME, Italy.
BS :It
Hotel de l'Europe,
Amsterdam, August 1, 1926.
PERSONAL AND CalFIDTMTIAT
Dear Mr. Harrison:
It seems a shame to inflict you with these long letters all arriving
at once, but the situation over here is so extremely critical and of such grave
itportance that I an rather inclined to write the letters for the sake of a record and, cf course, in order that you also may be kept posted.
But I tag of you
to handle my letters with the utmost caution.
"bile Mr. Gilbert and I were vith
proposals to the French Chamber;
857! or
of them had to do with the taxes and
the proposed raising of 11 billion francs.
'.
lellon, 1. Poincarisulmitted his
On the whole, the program is doubt-
less a vise one, although inequitable in that the distribution of the tax burden
is still unfair.
The last budget showed only 76 million francs from agricultural
sources and something over 300 million francs from direct land taxes.
Both should
be greatly increased, but politically it seems impossible, and that is the weak
spot in the French fiscal system.
The debates gave him a vote of confidence on
his general statement, and yesterday by n large majority of over a hundred approved
the legislation.
nevertheless, the statement was a disappointment to the country,
because it was regarded as incomplete.
It failed to deal with debt ratification,
stabilization, foreign loans and the floating debt.
When we reached Paris, after visiting !!Jr. Mellon, the franc was declining
sharply, people were again becoming discouraged and it looked as though there was
a rocky road ahead.
through.
I had almost lost confidence that the Government could pull
A long talk which I had at Dr. fist's house, with him and with M. Moreau
of the Bank, added greatly to my discouragement and resulted in the despatch of
my
2.
August 1, 1926.
As bearing u2on that, I enclose a copy of a letter whieh I
cable No. 46.
wrote to
Mr. Harrison.
3ellon accoppanying a copy of the cable sent to him.
On Saturday,
however, a kaloadoecoAc thence took place, and it is of oath great Importance
that I en writing 71r. 74ellon giving a descriation of the situation ar; per enclosed copy.
This will save a repetition of the story, except for a little em-
broidery.
"'.pile these gentlemen have been very csutious in their statalents to me,
I have concludes without their saying so that they have made some very stern reped
reventationz to the Prime !quieter end have probably point/out that ha is headed
for disaster unless he produces a complete progrem.
rranequi has also in-
formed me that he has made some very definite ctatemonts to tho Primo ,g.ininter,
mhith rhoc% him a good deal.
Thee° were all the more effeetive bocauso Ftancqui
has just accomplished what is really a great achievement in Belgium.
*
7:o has sue-
coed:1d in' converting the entire floating debt maturing within the next six months,
including January I believe, into preferred stock cf the Reilway Company, thus
removing the immediate menace of something like 7 billion francs, of Treazury bills
and giving him a pretty clear field as to damectic finance for six months.
Ho
still has some 42 billion dollars of foreign obligations maturing right along to
deal with.
This is en enforced oonvarsion, and by a little skillful management
of the pros :, by securing the cooperation of interested parties in advance and by
giving the banks some special treatment co that they avoid a free= portfolio, he
hee apparently carried out hic plan with a rosily enthusiastic public support.
His description of the way ho ens working vac eecoodingly amusing, vs !!r. Yonng
ell. appresinte.
He said that just now ho was the "little God" in Belgium.
He
did the work and the King signed the decroor,aad everybody thought he wac the
biggest man in nelgium, tut ho said: "They Moly will be Shooting at me at the
411
and of 2 or 3 months, so I want to get everything done that T can before they be
gin shooting."
nareison.
3.
A:Ague. 3, 1v26.
I promised to see Francqui again, nnd in passing, let me ca :i that
the story that is now going about is that ho will remove Hautain from the Cover-northip of the Dank and that Theunis will take it.
:Ms ray or my not be true.
To get bao to Faris, the chaAge in the situation has became so signific=t ant: importmat that my cable Mo. 46 may be misleading, so I am sending you a
brief cable as per enclosed confimstion to bring you up to date boron) our Directors
of too far in discussing my
6G.
This .c about all them is to say at the moment
I
bo hero for
a seek er oven ten days, and as Schacht is at Noordwyk, I shall probably see him
whilo Lore,.
This letter, finally, I think I shell Liail to finish up the re-
ports on to French situation for Ule moment.
Sincerely yours,
S
G. L. Pftrrisca,
c/o Federal Reserve Back of New York,
New York.
ESN
#
2.
et.
Ur. Harrison.
i
August 3, 1926.
k ---
II0
If you think well of it, you might
forward the enclosed letter to
the Minister.
If not, hold it and write him
yourself that you have heard
from me Lnd that I will &for
an answer until I get home.
3inceroly yours,
;.Sr. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Fodoral Reserve Bcnk of New
York,
New York.
B!3:!:
Hotel de 1'2urope,
AfIsterdam, August 3, 1926.
PERSONAL AND CONFIDENTIAL
Dear lir. Harrison;
This will reply tc your personal and confidential letter of July 8th,
which covers pretty wide ground.
Such of it is answered by separate letters
already mailed.
Generally, about the present attitude.
One cannot expect them to
grasp so complicated a picture as this, assieilrte it and take action when they
really know nothing of the subject, have none of the atmosphere and hno7 none of
the people.
I am not disappointed in that, but I think if they wish to take a
constructive attitude they must realize that, unless they are willing to tackle
the job themselven, they have got to trust someone else to do so.
It is just
that failure in giving confid,nce that causes all the trouble.
I have not boon able to learn much of Dr. Miller's visits.
He has
seen Dr. 19-scoring, who did not seem to be enough interested to report much of
the conversation, nor have I cuestioned him particularly.
Tho only significant
statement was that Dr. Miller seamed to be strtngly in favor of the Federal Reservo System aiding with credits for stabilization purposes, which surprised Vie coring, ?s he was under the impression ths:t Miller had been rather opposed.
I
suppose this came through Merman.
ny talk with Francqui was altogether too brief to really get at his
mind or to bring the conversation around to a point where I could talk about
antagonism to America and the American bankers.
that score
All that I was able to say on
was that it had astonished me to hear the reports from Belgium in re-
r
(
2.
Mr. Harrison.
August 3, 1926.
r
Hr. Harrison.
3.
August 3, 1926.
11,
returns, won't you please give her my sympathy and best wishes for a Irompt
recovery.
Sincerely yours,
1r. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Fedeml Reserve Bank of :yew Yoe:.
New York.
2.
Mr. Harrison.'
August 3, 1926.
of the rashington correspondents who are receiving pay from the Whaley-Eaton
Service.
the list.
Among others, the Associated Press man who covers the Treasury is on
The understanding is that these men are paid for giving Whaley infor-
mation ahich they get in the confidential talks in the various Departments and
which they are not permitted themselves to publish.
This is pretty low-down
journalism, end Gilbert's suggestion was that this be taken up very privately
with Kent Cooper of the Associated Press, that he be given enough information to
justify his taking it up with other responsible newspapers, end then that they
themselves as a body should undertake an investigation of the relations between
their men and the Maley-Eaton Service.
the matter, and
Of course our neme must never appear in
how it should be brought about would need most careful considera-
Hotel de l'Eurepe,
Amsterdam, August 3, 1926.
Dear Ur. Harrison:
Replying to another of yours of the 16th, I hope you keep in touch
with Morgan's office in regard to the situation in France.
Somethin g is liable
to develop any moment.
This letter is especially to refer to your cola:ilea about our rate.
This year I don't think we can hesitate long about an increase, in case speculation shows its vicious teeth again.
It may make it a little difficult for Gov-
ernor Harman, but I warned him, and I think ho is reasonably complacent about it.
The important thing is to give them notice in advance and, if possible, sufficient
notice so that they will have time for consultation and to communicate with him in
case he is away.
:'.bile I think of it, I want to congratulate you upon the outcome of your
negotiations with the Clearing House.
It is surely an embarrassment to the other
Clearing House Associations, especially Chicago, to have New York put the Whole
country on the dismtionary list, and ray guess is that they may "wiggle and squirm"
a bit, but in the end they will find that they are losing business to New York and
will be obliged to abolish their charges as well.
I hope they all do.
Certainly
Atlanta should, and there the charges, as I recall, are highest.
And while I am on the subject of the work of the Bank, I must not overlook writing that I hear Case did a grand job in working out the June 15th operations.
I think Mr. Mellon and the Treasury officials were all mighty pleased, and
of course I
was more than anybody.
Sincerely yours,
p
Hotel de l'2uropo,
Amsterdam, August 3, 1926.
Dear Uco. Harrison:
Replying to another of yours of the 16th, principally about public-
ity, I have escaped it all since returning to Paris last time, but & on the
edge of it again here in Holland.
The newspaper people are watching Schacht,
who has been at Noordwyk and returns there today.
I have about decided not to
go to Noordwyk, but as distances are short hare, we can stop with Dr. Vissering
at Blom endaal and Schacht can come up there.
Governor Norman arrives Friday
morning, and between us we can arrange some plan to avoid publicity.
I hate
all of this dodging, but it cannot be avoided, and I am particularly anxious to
do nothing which will arouse mistrust in French minds.
But if we got afraid of
our shadows in these matters, I will just have to come home and risk missing a
chance to do eomething really constructive.
Sincerely yours,
'Ir. G. L. Harrison,
e/o Federal Reserve Dank of New York,
Vow York.
DSAI
Hotel do l'Europo,
Amsterdam, August 3, 1926.
Dear Garrard:
I have your fine letter of July 16th, written, if I may say so, with
a considerable spice of resentment, at which frankly I am not greatly surprised.
But after all, we must be charitable enough to realize that there are
a lot of frayed nerves over here, and ,Shile Mr. Churchill's statement, which was
unprovoked, is to my mind unforgivable, the attitude of the public may be regarded
with more complacency.
These feelings quiet down, and it is more important for
us to aid in constructive work than it is to permit controversy.
I really think
our boot policy is to keep our mouths shut and lot the Winston Churdhills do the
talking.
Gilbert and I had a fine visit with Mr. Mellon.
He arrived in France
in the midst of a very panicky condition of affairs, and some of us were a little
concerned lest he might meet with an unhappy reception and some unfortunate incident simply add to the bad blood.
But everything went off beautifully.
Rous-
seau was very clever in all the arrangements he made and it was never discovered
that Gilbert and I had been to Dinard to see him.
I think we gave him a pretty
good picture of the situation, and he is apparently quite sympathetic with our
views, that if it is made possible, a little friendly sympathy and cooperation just
now will be most helpful.
I shall not send you details of affairs, as I am keeping Mr. Harrison
fully posted and you will hear it all from him.
My best to you as always.
Sincerely yours,
Hon. Garrard B. Winston,
Under Secretary of the Treasury,
Washington, D. C.
BS:M
Hotel de l'1urope,
Amsterdam, Lust 3, 1926.
Dear Garrard:
Thank you for your letter of the 17th.
I think Mr. Uellon's latter to Governor Crissinger, expressed in your
best language, was fine.
They write me from the office that there was some Q4
mur about the size of the expense account by =rebore of the noard, but they finally
accepted the situation.
Considering the amount of work which we had to do, which
included weeks or preliminary preparation, and the fact that those two gentleme
who came with me both left their college work without any notice and only a fax,
days in which to get substitutes for their lecture courses, the charges strike
as being moderate indeed.
A0 an echo from this incident, I am advised from the Bank that a resolution has boon introduced in the Federal Reserve board directing an inquiry to our
Bank or to the Directors as to the object of my trip to Europe.
It is all of a
piece with previous affairs of that sort, and of course I am getting heartily sick
of it.
About the subsidiary silver coinage, this of course is a rather complex
matter just now.
I am going to have a talk with Dr. Schacht about it, but any-
thing that I might attempt to do would have to be regarded as most confidential
just now, because itinvolves a lot of political questions over hero the same as
with us at home.
The Dutch are still coining silver, the British are coining it at a reduced percentage, that is, 500 fine; the Swiss are now boining silver, and in fact
are putting a 5-franc piece into circulation, which I hear is not very popular.
The Baak of France holds some 34C million francs of silver, principally, I imagine,
Latin Union coins, and I had already had a talk with the officers of the Bank about
V
August 3, 1926.
Mr. Winston.
2.
a suggestion which struck Warren and me one day as being worth considering.
It surprised them, but they may at least give it a chance in connection with
some big program of restoration.
Our notion was to have the silver rocoined
whenever the now currency is undertaken, so that the Bank would realize a seignforage profit of possibly 1
or 2 billion francs, which is now possible through
the depreciation of the franc.
fine like the British.
We thought they might issue a coin of say 500
Of course they fear that it will be hoarded, but the *Int-
ter is under consideration and it may bo taken up.
Italy and Belgium might consider it.
If they do it, I think both
Of course the subsidiary and minor coin of
all three countries will have to be reorganized when the currency is revalued, as
it is out of line with the general price level.
I have already recommended to U.
Moreau that the Bank should discontinue issuing 5-franc notes, which today have the
value of about a 6-pence, and later if possible discontinue the 10-franc notes.
This would give a place for silver coin, and as the substitution of silver coins
for 5-franc notes would more than absorb the entire stock of silver of the Bank of
France, there might be a chance there to find a new customer for silver.
I cannot think of anything more that could be done at the moment, but
this is just to let you know that the matter has been in mind and had already been
discussed before receiving your letter.
I really do not think it would be well to
let any of our mining friends, like Mr. Robinson, at home know of these discussions.
Those fellows are very active with propaganda and politically, and the impression
must not be created abroad that I am engaged in promoting any such enterprise, for
the main thing now is stabilization, restoration, and the question of a subsidiary
coinage is distinctly one of detail.
Many thanks for writing me, and beet regards.
Hon. Garrard B. Winston,
Under Secretary of the Treasury,
Washington.
Sincerely yours,
Hotel de 1'r, rope,
Amsterdam, August 6, 1926.
Dear Garrard:
Yours of July 21st just reaches me.
I am indeed grateful to you for
handling the matter of the silver inquiry with the Federal Reserve Board.
It is
as satisfactory as it can be, considering the difficulties we always encounter with
the Board about any matter of expense.
Considering the results and the great
amount of work necessary to obtain them, I think the bill was moderate indeed.
We certainly have had a hornet's nest buzzing around in connection with
the debts.
Austin Chamberlain made a speech day before yesterday on the eve of
the adjournment of Parliament which I did not like at all.
I cannot for the life
of me make out what they are driving at, but I agree with you that it is distressing
does no end of harm and may endanger much of what we are endeavoring to do.
If
the French debt settlement fails, I feel that it is largely to be charged to Winston
Churchill.
About the Bank of England credit, I have no idea as to what their intentions may be, but I did have one discussion on the subject with Norman after this
Churchill upset, in which I told him quite frankly that if we were asked to renew
thegredit at the present moment, the feeling as it was at home and this wholly unoutburst from Churchill, I felt, would make it difficult and possibly impos
e to recommend it.
Norman, you realize, is an intimate friend of Stanley Bald-
win's and visits him in the country frequently.
I thought it just as well to say
this to Norman, who will doubtless report it to the Prime Minister.
By next Spring
when the matter will come up, much water will have flowed over the dam and we can
consider the whole subject in a calmer spirit.
There is just one fly in the ointment.
armistice loans, I am afraid, will not hold water.
The statement about the postThe bulk of them were made for
Mr. Winston.
2.
August 6, 1926.
the purpose of cleaning up existing contracts placed with American contractors,
-,nd had we been unwilling to continue our advances to the Allied governments, many
American contractors would never have gotten the money or would have been obliged to
wait a long time, and some of them would have "busted".
The exchange could not have
been had, and the disorder and difficulty occasioned to our own people would have
been very serious indeed.
I am in close touch with the office by cable and am glad to gather that they
are in close touch with you.
Anything I write now will be so out of date when you
get it that I will not duplicate what goes to the office.
to enjoy a most interesting experience with me.
My best regards as always.
Sincerely yours,
Hon. Garrard B. Winston,
Under Secretary of the Treasury,
WASHINGTON, D. C.
BS :I
I wish you were over here
1pf/ti,f2.6/,)
FEDERAL }RESERVE 9AN K
OF NEW YORK
Hotel do l'Europe,
Amsterdam, August 9, 1926.
PERONAL ANL) CONFIDENTIAL
Bear I.:I-. Parrison:
It is literally imposeible to send you a decent account of things here
when they change so rapidly, but I will send you a little cross-oection Lee of
today, renewing various meetings.
I arrived here Iasi Sunday, the 1st, from Paris, and saw Dr. Viesering
on Monthly.
The only intereeting developments were two:
(1) That Francqui had asked him to go to Brussels to consult hie! about
his program.
Apparently the discrvion was super-theoreticel, which is 1748sorrz's
hobby, Lnd I surmise that Frencqui got a bit tired of it, as he is too practieelte waste tilee on fino-spun theeriee about meeeures of value, etc.
(2) The other development was my conviction that Dr. Visccring is getting old.
He certainly is weak, has not definite opinions himself, en6 secene nel:e
incL.ned to agree with the last
an than I have ever known him before.
He is oleo
riding hobbies to death and it becomes difficult to hold him to a serious discuesion.
In view of all of
this,
I was rather cautious in our talks, but I told
him that I had promised Francqui tc let"him know my program, and Visserirg thereupon wrote Francqui simply advising him of my al-nivel here, that I would be hero
about a week, stopping at Dr. Vissering's hales in tho country most of the time,
end that he was expecting Governor Norman on Friday;
aleo that Dr. Cchacht was
stopping at Noordwyk, which is right near Bloemendaal, whore Dr. Visserirg lives.
Te spent the time before Norman's aeeival in solee trips in tho country,
reed then Nol-ile,L and I went down to the country with Dr. Viscering, where
joined V.s.
Schaen
Meantime, Francqui telegraphed that he would be over for a "discreet"
.tSERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
3.
August 9, 1926.
Mr. Harrison.
041'frO
National Bank.
In addition, there is owing to the banks of issue, in round
t
figures, $15,000,000, and there are short Treasury bills held abroad aggregating
$37,000,000, making an external floating debt of $52,000,000.
Of this external
debt, about 17 millions is held in Holland, 8 millions in London, 15 millions by
the banks of issue of Europe, and 10 millions in Germany.
Other small amounts
bring it up to 52 million.
This operation absorbed about 6 billions of the 6% preferred stock of
the Railway Company, of which 10 billions are available.
Francqui claims to have
a sale of 500 million francs practically concluded with Dutch and Swiss bankers,
leaving al billions still in the Treasury.
He also states that, during the course
of advance of the franc, he has been able to purchase $18,000,000 of foreign exchange to build up his foreign balances, and I gather that the bank consortium
loan of $10,000,000 which had been di - cussed with Morgans has been abandoned as not
needed.
In a word, therefore, the Belgian problem resolves itself to this:
(1) How to deal with some 52 million dollars of foreign floating debt;
(2) How to deal with some 6 billion 700 million francs owing by the 6 .arc.
Treasury to the National Bank;
(3) At what rate to stabilize the franc;
(4) How to get money abroad and how much.
As to the floating debt abroad, he -.ants to cover it by a long-time loan.
As to the debt to the Bank, I think he has in mind also using a portion of the longtime loan, and in addition bank credits, say with the banks of issue.
I figure
roughly that he would need to repay about 64 million dollars of the State's debt to
the National Bank in order to bring its reserve up to 60% of its note liabilities.
To borrow 64 million dollars abroad for this purpose, plus 52 million dollars to
fund the floating debt, is, in my opinion, an impossible and exceedingly expensive
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
Aleguet .9,
4
4 million dollars, the State would be paying interest on
t of a purchase of a like amount of gold, which will prod:Ace
VOC-n3 to have been cor.beldened by tho C"..C.7d= of his project:1
be counting the cost as carefully as he should, although he
never missing that aspect of any situation.
me wae,devoted to the discussion of technique that we really
a nice discussion with the :figures, but I think he vias jolted
, S6-acht and myself when we pointed out to him that, with no
e, he could either refund a pare of the debt of the Kate to
c operation, or could permit the Bank itself to convert the
lable security and liquidate it at hone, the effect of which
e note issue, which cn the other hand would be correspondingly
's continuing to buy foreign exchange, in other words gold.
ddle the State with the service of a very large foreign loan.
nvert the State's debt to the Bank into a domestic loan and
y its gold in the open market.
There is no question as to
isest.
ly Francqui does not always rake a good impression.
In the
there were
ssing the liabilities of the National Bank, / figures which
such as
ted/a deposit of a million eee.ling which the Reiche's,a-ik has
n fact a gold liability for that amount, being the Belgian
the German Dawes bonds, which were left in Belgium;
eithee he
he situation in the Bank in detail, or else ho is unailling to
ortunate improreion arose through the fact that ho did not
eeo deoll:og
o n:_etioting for the sale of the re.:.'eey
o he 1 eft :,1.,',, ho hoe preLably been dealing aith eeoe
192G.
.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
5.
August 9, 1926.
L. liUrl'i0011.
If ho
other than those who have stood by Belgium through these trying times.
should abandon the bankers who have done the financial heretofore and go to sours
firm like Dillon Road, or Mendelsohn in Berlin of se:,o
Date% bank:, than
Hope a Company: he would certainly make a very b4d impression.
(See Postscript #2).
A third situation which became perfectly clear was the fact that he was
practically not on speaking terms with Hautain and that the Birk is being 4vrored
by Francqui for the moment, as to any mtters where he has the power to give directions.
On this last point, I do net think ho is roach to be blamed.
antagonized everyone and they have all los.c, confidence in him.
Hautain has
There is a good
deal of discussion of his successor, and I would not be surprised to see a change
made any day.
Another deelopment, which is most confiacntial, and which has the germ
of sere trouble in it, is the fact that Francqui and Schacht have concluded negotiations of a rather complicated character, which I will briefly describe ac follows.
Germany is to make a declaration of regret about the invasion of Belgium or something of that sort, then to enter into a compact of friendship by which Belgium will
return Eupen and Malmedy to Germany, against which the Rhine Provinces to which
Eupen and Malmedy for;lerly belonged will pny to Belgium V0,000,000, this being reimbursement of the amount spent by Bolgium on the railway and other state properties
there, such as public utilities, postoffices, telk,raphs, telephones, etc.
It is
then proposed that the Reichsbank will loan to Belgium, or to the National Ban,
or
arrange a loan in some form of 30 r..11lions additional, which is to be repaid in ten
installments of 3 millions each out of the Belgian share of the Gorman Dawes Plan
annuity.
This 60 million dollars is in fact, houover, the settlement by Germany
lgium, which now :.,:mounts
71::
111
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Or NEW YORK
G
i<
August 9', 1926
I surmise, and Schacht has been told, that the difficulties will be
;olio is:
(1) Tne rectification of the Belgian-German frontier tray likrly require
the
-crant of all the signotori3s to the T,'eaty of Versailles;
(2) These payments may possibly be considered as a transfer and require
t?
srt
ef the Transfer Co=nittee;
(3) They will almost certainly require approval by the Reparations Ce;1-
mission;
(4) How c.7..n Germany effect such a settlement with Belgium, of a sort of
extra-legal character vis-a-vis the raves Plan and the Treaty of Versailles, without inviting France, Italy, Great Britain and others to inquire ;:hat they get out
of it:
At least as to 30 millicn dollars, it would appear to me to to an antici-
pation of Da7,es pa:i.Lonts, something which the French would to very loath to agl.ee
to unless in like proportion their annuities r.-ere anticipated.
This project has all been discussed, apperently, with the French officials, as well as in Great Britain, and the next step Booms to be to cors,2.1t Gil-
bert and see hew he stands.
I think they will find him rather ltleaaro, altheuLb
ho iaay approve in principle, subject to all interested parties approving; but I
feel certain that he vculd not recognize a pledge or antieipaticn of the annuities
and lie y question the legality of a transfer of such amount.
I think Schacht ex-
pects to use the milli= pounds sterling cwing by the National rank and the 10 milheld in Germany
lion dollars or oven more of Pelgian Treasury bills/as a part of the payment, and
i believe ho has other funds available
have already been e*ortod, so the
transfer would not bo very large as to the first 30 millions in reimbursement for
public buildings, (0,:ci
,
1,6 warn not cencern& t4-01 the mattcr at all a:u1 could not diLpeo;,8 it.
Oi course,
if such a programs should be carried out with everylody essenting, it would
make it
August 9, 1926.
3
tv,
°
Hotel de l'Eurepe.
Amoterdam, August 10, 1926.
/
My dear Mr. Mellon:
Since our talk in regard to the agitation about the difficulties of the
American farmer, I have had a further talk with Gilbert end we both felt that it
might be well to put the substance of What we discuesedintomore concrete form,
which I shall now attempt to dc.
As you know, this subject has had our attention at the Bank, principally
an a credit problem, ever since the agricultural inquiry of 1921.
thouchts ar
The following
the result of a good deal of study, in conaection with which I have
read most of the literature of the last few yearn and almost all of the bills offered to Congress; on this subject.
The agricultural emblem divides itself naturally into four rnrts, an
follown:
(1) Agricultural credit;
(2) Marketing facilities and methods;
(3) The cost of making tho crops;
(4) The market and market prices for the crops.
AO to (1) - Credit.
Beyond the gradual development of the present spites
of Intermediate Credit Banks (especially for the benefit of the cattle industry), I
do not think any good will result from enlarging agricultural credit facilities,
which may indeed have a tendency simply to extend and perpetuate an unsound situation.
If the farmers are deluded into thinking that their
industry will become
more profitable by growing more crops, which they may be encouraged to do by supplies
of
cheap money, they will add to their difficulties rather than solve them.
(2) As to market facilities.
'Ruch has already been accomplished, and
doubtless still other methods for facilitating cooperative effort in marketing and
Mr. Mellon.
2.
August 10, 1926.
cheaper and more efficient means of delivering and distributing farm produce
can and will be developed, but this is a slow growth and many of the measures
attempted have demonstrated their futility through failure or have exhibited the
incapacity of the farmers' organizations to manage them, as in the case of the
recent unouccessful efforts to purchase the Armour grain elevators and mart
grain by farmers' cooperation.
The development of better and more economical
marketing methods cannot be accomplished by legislation anyway, but will depend
more upon intelligent cooperative effort among the farmers themselves.
(3) The cost of making the crop.
It is undoubtedly true that the
causes of the farmers' high cost of production are our high standards of living,
the high prices prevalent in the United States, the high cost of his land - which,
in many cases, is heavily mortgaged - and high labor costs.
The Immigration Law
will likely retard or prevent any decline in labor caste on the farm.
The price
of the farmer's land, the interest on his mortgage and his taxes are fixed and
cannot be altered.
The only costs which can be reduced are of those things which
he has to purchase for working his farm (outside of seed), which might be reduced
by a reduction of the tariff.
The most apparent are: all chemical fertilizers
which are still on the tariff list, farming machinery and farm implements, hardware,
fence wire, lumber, tools and doubtless other things of like character.
It has
struck me that if concessions were possible on a very limited list of articles
which enter considerably into farm use, it might reduce a widespread demand for
general alteration of tariff rates, a project which would certainly prove to be
disorganizing to the business of the whole country.
It happens that most of those
things which the farmers use, like special kinds of wire and lumber and of course
fertilizer, and probably many of his tools and much of his hardware, are produced
by industries which have a large and varied production and which would not be
seriously affected either by tariff reduction or even by putting these few articles
4/4
August 10, 1926.
Mr. Mellon.
04
on the free list.
And there is much justice in the claim of the farmer that,
because his prices are fixed by world price levels and his costs are fixed by
donertic price levels, he is at a groat disadvantage in contrast with other industry, which can regulate its production more accurately and scientifically with
regard to world prices.
The farmer it subject to the vicissitudes of weather
which he cannot control, not only in his own country, but the crop weather of all
other parts of the world.
(4) But the farmer's chief difficulty Jo the low price which he getlizes
for his production, both at home and abroad.
farm production is exaorted.
Roughly, between 151. and 201. of our
In a general way, one-half of our exports are agri-
culturel in their origin, end of our agricultural exports about one-half consists
of cotton and cottonseed oil and cake.
An exportable surplus of 17%, or even less
than that, if it cannot be marketed, makes a sufficient surplus to disorganize
domestic market apices.
What the farmer neede is n larger world market for all
exportable agricultural production, and that larger market we cannot exnoct to develop except by the gradual elevation of world standards of living.
There is no
one thing which is so disturbing to the world's commerce and so dangerously lowers
living standards as such conditions of financial and monetary disorder, with wide
unemployment and consequent economy and poverty, as now exist in some parts of
ruropo.
The consequences are felt directly by the farmer, because those farm
products which we export are to a certain extent luxuries in countries of lower
living standards.
Wheat flour, that is, rhite bread, meat, lard and even cotton
are all capable of greatly reduced consumption when people aro obliged to economize.
Belgium in now imposing limitations upon the amount of white flour
in bread.
The need for raising the price of bread, as has recently been done in France, has
a tendency to reduce the consumption of wheat flour.
In Italy prizes are being
August 10, 1926.
Ur. Mellon.
offered for increased wheat production.
The consumption of veal, chickens and
other less nourishing meats in Europe can readily take the place of American beef
and bacon and the higher priced meat products which we export.
The pressure of economy in Europe is exhibited by 2,500,000 unemployed in
Great Britain, 2,000,000 in Germany, 350,000 in Poland and many in middle Europe;
possibly a total, with their families, of 30,000,000 who cannot afford the expensive
foods we partly furnish.
The same is true of the enforced economy of large classes
who are impoverished in France, Italy and Belgium, and in other countries as well,
because of the reduced domestic purchasing power of the currency.
It seems to me that there is every argument for the development of a constructive policy towards European restoration, and that this may apply not only tc
cooperation by the extension of credit, as at present, but may even extend to our policy in regard to the political debts.
te are now engaged in making calculations at the Bank as to the burden of
the payments which must be made to the United States, both on private loans and on the
funded Government loans.
So far as we have already gone, it ap ears that the service
of all of these loans will next year call for payments very close to a billion dollars,
if not quite that.
Mile there are offsetting items, the principal one is of an un-
certain character, namely, the possible return to European countries of the fugitive
capital which has taken refuge in America.
It may well be that this burden of pay-
ments, which has now become so heavy, represents such a sudden and formidable change
of balance, because of the war, from the days when we were a debtor nation, that the
world is in fact today experiencing a real difficulty in paying for what it would
otherwise buy from us, because at the same time it is unable to pay interest and
principal of the magnitude required to meet what they already owe.
This development
is difficult to detect or appraise, but it can safely be assumed that the many
August 10, 1926.
Mr. Mellon.
4116
Ail
5.
dollars required to pay loans reduce the amount available to buy our farm products.
Mile I realize the difficulties of such a course, the question may be
asked whether our policy as to the political debts cannot now or soon be modified
in the interest of our own commerce, especially of the exports of the farmers.
The possibilities of modification may be divided into:
(a) Same scheme of cancellation.
This would be so unpopular politically
as to be out of the question.
(b) Some plan for readjustment of individual settlements.
only one which might be justified is the British agreement.
Probably the
To modify one without
opening the door to changing others would seem to be impossible.
Besides that,
the feelings aroused by recent developments would appear to make any change in the
British agreement very difficult.
(0) A general
From time to time it in suggested that, -within a few
years, it may be pee:Able to effect some general aottlomerrt of German reparations.
Such a settlement could not be effected by a down payment of cash, as the financial
operation involved would be too large.
It would necessarily involve crsploying some
form of security, such as the railroad and industrial bonds created under the Dawes
Plan, which would be a continuance of a part of the annuities on a capitalized basis.
Such a settlement would of course greatly add to the difficulties of the Allied Governments in meeting their funded obligations to the United Staten Government.
Their
income from Germany would be reduced by the fact that the annuities were capitalized,
and to the extent that the railroad or industrial bonds were sold in the markets, tho
income would entirely cease.
At the present moment, an attempt to settle the indebtedness to our Govern-
ment by the use of the securities delivered by Germany would be unpopular in America,
but might be possible after a lapse of yoaro.
The only suggestion which seams at
all feasible now, is for the American Government, into this year or early next year,
on its own initiative to propose a moratorium (excluding Germany;
also Austria,
Mr. Mellon.
August 1:., 1926.
the latter being already postponed) for a short period, say for three or at the
outside not over five years, during which no interest would be required nor even
accumulated, so that at the and of the period, payments on all the Government debts
would commence upon exactly the bases which are provided under existing agreements,
unless a readjustment had been made.
This would relieve Europe of an immense
burden, greatly facilitate financial and monetary restoration and, I believe, do more
to protect the farmer's market than any other thing that we could do.
At the end of
five years, the present bitter feelings would have subsided, and much more would then
be known of the capacity of Germany to carry out the terms of the Dawes Plan than is
now possible.
At the end of two or three years, it might be possible to work out a
general readjustment of the debts which would eliminate them as a source of irritation.
It would relieve us of the unfortunate position which we now occupy of ex-
acting payment from our debtors upon a fixed basis, when Germany's payments are so
controlled under the Dawes Plan that they may be suspended if capacity to pay is
ehown to be unequal to the burden.
We now are in the unfortunate position of ex-
tending greater leniency to the defeated enemy than tie show to our victorious associates in the war.
""bile it is not possible for me to comment upon the political effect of
such a program, there are evidences that it would be popular with so many people at
home that it would moderate the demands of those who are now so vehement in insisting
upon full payment.
Such a modification, applying to all agreements, after all had
been ratified, might satisfy needs on both sides and overcome much of the present bad
feeling.
Sincerely yours,
Hon. Andrew W. Mellon,
c/o Hotel Royal,
EVIAN-LES-BAINS.
BS:M
pow.
Hotel Grand a Euler,
Basle, August 13, 1926.
Dear Mr. Harrison:
I have been intensely interested by the printing of the enclosed
article day before yesterday in one of the Dutch papers, which led me to
cable you as per draft on tho back.
in my long letter of the 11th.
The whole situation is fully described
There seems to be no occasion to make any
denial, as these matters are of intere:t for a few days and they are then for-
gotten, but still it is annoying and disturbing because of its effect on other
people.
Uy best regards as always.
Ur. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Federal Reserve Bank of l!ew York,
New York.
BS:Li
Sincerely yours,
Hotel Grand it Euler,
Basle, August 17, 1926.
11000NF/MNTIAL
Dear Mr. Harrison:
Replying to yours of the 5th about the participaUon of foreign accounts in our purchases of Government securities, I think that matter is ended
and am sorry to have given you so much bother as I did.
The fact is that Norman
and the others have got to take their chances in the market, just as we do ourselves, and I don't think 70 should strain our procedure in their behalf, no
matter how urgently they 2ress us.
Dr. Schacht never mentioned the matter, which
confirms my feeling that Nornen is trading, or endeavoring to.
Sincerely yours,
Ir. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Federal Reserve Bank of Neu York,
New York.
MEMORANDUM BY R. P. W
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 23. 1926
Place: Princess-Hotel, Paris
Present:
Governor Strong
Governor Moreau
Mr. Piet
Mr. Quesnay
Mr. Warren
Time: About 3 hours.
The conversation was opened by Governor Moreau, who referred to some
points brought up in the discussion which occurred on the train from Evian between
Governor Strong and Mr. Rist.
He mentioned the fact that on some of the points of
that discussion, he was unable to agree fully with the position taken by Governor
Strong.
For example, he did not agree that the system of indirect taxation for
France presented the disadvantages which had been remarked by Mr. Strong.
Second,
in view of the efforts toward consolidating the floating debt, he did not agree with
110
the proposals that the Bank should undertake at the present time the practice of
buying and selling State securities.
He was afraid that such a practice would
lead to increased borrowings by the Treasury from the Bank.
Mr. Strong im agreed
6
this last position, but made it clear that, for
the present, he had contemplated only the sale of Government securities held by the
Bank and did not contemplate their free purchase as well as sale until after the
relations of the Bank to the Treasury had been clearly determined and until an organ
ized money market was functioning smoothly.
Governor Strong then remarked that since his last meeting with them, he
had been in Holland, where he had met Governor Norman, Governor Schacht and Governor
Vissering, as well as Francqui and Delacroix.
In the course of these ccnversations
the general problems of stabilization and, to a certain extent, the specific problems of France, had been discussed in general terms by all present, but that no reference had been made to his conversations with Governor Moreau.
During these
( page 2
)
meetings in Holland, the question of Eupen and Malmedy had come up, in which he,
Governor Strong, had said that this was.aartaii.eiy a political question in which he
had no interest, but that he was forced to remark that he doubted if such an agreement could be concluded between Germany and Belgium without appropriate compensation being given to all the other_aignatoriee of the Treaty of Versailles.
As for
its relations to any contemplated American participation in the stabilization program of Belgium, it is clear that there would be no relation, the entire disposal
of that question being outside of Americas. interests.
From Amsterdam he had gone to Basle, where he had met Governor Bachmann
of the Swiss National Bank for a few hours conversations then he had gone to Evian
where he had met Mr. Mellon.
Mr. Mellon was considering the advisability of meet-
ing M. Poincare if he passed through Paris, and as he had asked Governor Strong to
take eampeeimasoundings, Governor Strong asked Governor Moreau whether he believed
that it would be more or less desirable for Mr. Mellon to meet M. Poincare.
The
411
reasons arguing for such a meeting were, principally, that Mr. Mellon had already
conferred with representatives of the Italian Government, there was good reason to
expect that he would meet the British Prime Minister and also the Chancellor of the
Exchequer, and that for that reason it might be that M. Poincare would
a elispirimmt slight to be omitted from such a list of calls.
consider it 04.-*.,
On the other hand,
there was-444464w the danger that such a meeting would be given a false interpreta-
tion by the press, in which case the relations between the French Government and
its Parliament, and that of the Administration at Washington towards its Congress,
might be complicated.
It was, however, the opinion of Governor Moreau, which was
ftiatashared by Professor Rist, that, recognizing the difficulties of either of
these alternatives, it was vorrmioeld4415; preferable that Mr. Mellon and M. Poincare should meet.
411
In order to find out if a meeting was desired, it was suggested
that the approach be made through Mr. Whitehouse of the Embassy with the Ministry
( page 3
)
of Foreign Affairs.
Governor Strong then asked whether there was any special topic of
conversation which Governor Moreau would like to raise at this time, as it might
be that, owing to pressure of other duties, Governor Moreau would not be able to
be present at all of the conversations.
M. Moreau said that the subject in which he was most v44,445, interested
was the possibility of securing adequate foreign credits.
Referring then to a program of stabilization a copy of which had been
and specifically to that part which dealt with foreign credits,
given him by the bank of France,/Governor Strong remarked that the sums proposed
in the program seemed to be very large.
In his own mind, he had outlined three
sources of foreign credits: (1) A State loan;
banks of issue;
(2) Credit arrangements between the
(3) Private arrangements between borrowers in 'trance and abroad.
These were the methods which also were discussed at some length in the program.
In order to clarify the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York, Governor Strong gave an extensive outline of the negotiation and terms of
the similar credit to the Bank of England:
(1) The reasons which induced the Bank to undertake this operation were
the desire to facilitate the restoration of sound monetary conditions in Europe
and specifically to hasten the return of the world to the gold standard.
The op-
eration, which had been to some extent criticized in the united otates, was, however, siatirda.lry-1-seeni-aimoi contemplated by the bederal Reserve Act itself.
It in-
volved the right of the Bank to open accounts with foreign correspondents, to purchase satisfactory paper in foreign markets, to buy and sell gold, and to make
contracts.
transaction.
In one way and another, every one of these rights was involved in the
The Bank contracted to sell to the bank of England during a period
of two years gold to the value of 200 million dollars.
The Federal Reserve Bank
of New York would receive payment in the form of a deposit in the bank of England,
4IPwhich would be invested for its account in satisfactory commercial paper in the
( page 4
London market.
)
When this transaction was questioned, it was pointed out that,
while the Act sopeeifikeekky authorized the bank to buy and sell gold, the objection
centered on the period of time involved in the contract.
It was, however, demon-
strated that the only feasible way by which the rederal Reserve Bank could sell
gold to a foreign bank of issue would be ones an extended period of time, as ander
any other form of contract which involved either no time or a shorter period, the
...eeltrervalue of the transaction would be lost.
This precedent, therefore, had be-
come firmly established as far as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was con-
cerned, and there was no doubt as to their capacity to make other agreement: of the
same kind.
Nevertheless, before engaging in this undertaking, the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York had insisted upon three safeguards:
(1) That during the period of the contract, no fundamental change in the
character of the Bank of England itself should be made;
the time,
currency
in Treasury
the direction
an alter
inflation
(2) Thatstatus
duringofthat
the notes
British
shouldofnot
the of that type
lation;
(3) That the British Government should bind itself during the du
the contract to raise no barrier to the exportation of gold in case such
tion should be necessary to meet the terms of the contract.
This last provision, of course, required an Act of Parliament,
been epeeigliosally written into what was now called the "Gold Standard Act
28, 1925."
The other proposal had been for the British Treasury tc agree t
Bank, in return for any sums drawn upon by the Bank of England, dollar Tr
bills, and while they might have been legal, it was 4- less desira
far as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was concerned,
than the
type H
ions actually
made.
credit of the Federal R
( page 5
110
)
which that was based was the promise to give in return British Treasury bills
WI. nut ail
expressed in dollars. While such security was no doubt good, it was am4hassater
a collateral loan and as such was open to some question of
The terms given to the Bank of England were "Mimosa* light, but could be
justified for three reasons:
(I) The **Peng desire of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to facilitate
the reintroduction of the gold standard in England;
(2) The fact that the debt arrangements just concluded between England and
the United States had been eeripreimetr burdensome to the British balance of payments;
(3) The fact that the character of the loan itself waste high,
since it was supported (a) by the credit cf our Government, (b) by the credit of the
Bank of England, and (c) by the individual credit of the three names appearing upon
all the paper in which the funds created under the issue of this credit would be invested in the London market.
IP
Protection against loss by exchange lay in the fact that, if the credit
was used, the account would be adjusted from day to day in accordance with the fluctuation of the cable rate on New York.
These exceptional conditions had justified granting this credit without any
commission, but this leniency had been.e.fiwaralii criticized in the U nited States,
even by persons who were friendly to the credit itself.
In Governor Strong's opin-
ion, there was much merit in this objection, and he believed that if the British
credit were renewed it wpald be necessary to charge a commission.
He was also of
the opinion that if any further similar credits were offered to any central bank,
some commission would be charged.
r,
Finally, 134-atifte-tietarbigirl---11 this generosity on
ttepric
-Wei
cl
the part of the Federal Reserve Bank itezd--remllr-spared. the British
eople 11M4h-Realay,,
its-try-me -trf-th-e-opinitnr-
=
ett,----th a amo
ti:J=3:. ---/Per-eicel-ReserVeBan'e41 of Yew York l
te:
14
privEtte- -bimkers..v461-4.-e,ceirripeti-4b. credi
( page 6
)
would encounter
certain amount
special
opposition
(II) ItFrance
was necessary
to statea candidly
that a of
credit
to the
Bank of in the United
'
While the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was authorized to act for the en
System, it was o4-eompee necessary for Governor Strong to refer a matter of
portance to the Federal Reserve Board and to the Secretary of the Tieasury.
F,C,U4 et
$
e-,tie,
/1
elAP
ib
these people mnuld-hpve nn oct.u.authority-aitaar...leLraniaLuas such
Cr A 14 gir
es,
their t4t14-adal was ecrtni.niv essential.
Further, the Federal Reserve Bank
A
York in such a transaction would be acting as the representative and agent
other 11 Banks of the System, and it would be necessary,...QL.ciammos, to have
endorsement of a program.
Finally, the Directors of the Federal Reserve B
New York themselves would have to endorse the proposal, and this fact neces
a mmmodioistatement of a previous transaction with the Bank of France.
In 1916, on the occasion of Governor Strong's visit to Europe, at
when the prospects of the Allies seemed none too bright, and having in mind
410
sity ofs,laireccoperation between central banks after the war, the Federal
Bank of New York made certain proposals to the Bank of England.
ter was at the same time transmitted to the Bark of Franca.
A copy of
Further, in or
express a certain degree of interest, the Federal Reserve Bank of New Ycrk b
13 100,000 which it placed upon deposit in the Bank of England, and 1 million
Nliich it placed upon deposit at the Bank of France.
maintained continuously.
Both of these deposits
The one at the Bank of England had 44.ogiutimpe fall
value during the period of the decline of the pound to the neighborhood of :
it had 400041,4,464.1 recavered and now 44-41empole showed no loss.
As for the d
the Bank of France, it had steadily declined in value, but on one occasion,
absence of Governor Strong from New York, it had been doubled, apparently wi
object of averaging on the loss.
At the present time, of course, this depo
2 million francs with the Bank of France represented practically the sole los
II/
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had ever sustained in any of its operat
Digitized They
for FRASER
had, in fact,
(
page 7
)
had no loss on any other type of loan cr credit, and the total
( page 3
)
liquidate it until the stabilization program was completely assured.
411
M. Quesnay further suggested that the proposal contained in the program,
by which certain foreign credits were to be raised by the consortium of commercial
banks in Yaris and the proceeds sold to or deposited with the Bank of Frame, would
give those banks some interest in the maintenance of the value of the currency.
Governor Strong said that one of his strongest impressions in regard to the
difficulties which the French Treasury had faced during the last few years had been
that they were due
(1) to the refusal of the commercial banks to carry the proportion of the
floating debt which they had formerly supported, and
t2) to the fact that the budget had been left unbalanced year after year.
The combined effects of the necessity of maintaining the floating debt and
the necessity of balancing the budget by the issue of currency, had throvmmorrtrivetr
upon the bank of Prance the burden which should have been shared between the commercial
411 banks and the taxpayers, and had forced the continuous increase in circulation.
If
the commercial banks were so strong that they could get along without the assistance of
the Bank of France, amiamdby they were strong enough to give the Government and its
Treasury 46-gmeat-cloomi more effective support than they had recently been giving.
Returning again to the subject of the magnitude of the credits suggested in
the program, uovernor Strong said that he would be unable off-hand to give any estimate
of the amounts required.
If the program of stabilization was a good one, 4.4"EiAims3.y a
Jowly small sum would be needed.
If it was a bad program, no sums that could be bor-
rowed would be adequate to meet the situation.
However, two factors which bore on
the subject could be ascertained:
(1) The
V-MeZtAof
the floating debt, and
h-AlAwv,-- 04-
(2) A comprehensive statement of the ialefte-ef- payments of rrans3, with
special reference to the sums which must be found by the trench Treasury to meet its
411
foreign obligations.
t page 9
)
New
of France
were
itReserve
would be
abeelo401.
Further,
asYork
far to
as the
any Bank
credits
extended
by concerned,
the Federal
Bank
of
neces
that those should be entered in the statement of the Bank of Prance in so c
way that, in case they were drawn on or utilized, it would be obvious to th
public that the Bank of prance was merely returning gold or credits which i
borrowed abroad.
wing to the prejudices existing in France regarding tjae
of gold from the reserves of the Bank of France, it was necessary to take airix
precautions to avoid misunderstandings which would be superfluous in the ca
country which had a different popular attitude on gold movements.
These 3:wire% objections which had been raised, such as the possi
of commission charged, the difficulties arising from the previous transacti
the Bank of France, etc., Governor Strong said that he had advanced, not fo
purpose of creating a discouraging atmosphere, but simply to give a 4eeteliod--e
statement of all of the factors involved in the transaction.
411
Governor Moreau then asked whether, in considering plans for the
of credits with other banks of issue, Governor Strong would recommnend that
proach be made at the present time to the Reichsbank.
Governor Strong replied that he was convinced that for the presen
approach would be undesirable.
Governor Strong then menticned the fact that one of the greatest
which would arise out cf the period cf stabilization would not be the diffi
securing adequate foreign credits, but rather the difficulty of handling su
sign credits as would be offered plus French capital which would be repatria
From his conversation with American bankers, he was convinced that, just as
the case with Germany, once the stabilizaticn program was adopted in France
Bank of France would find itself almost swamped with valuta.
411
At the prese
evenlw+uoid.maaaliwo& foreign capital was coming into France, and as an examp
( page 10
)
curious to note that while French capital was being exported to Germany via
410
Switzerland, .erTilmtr..Citmar.e4-German capital was coming into France and being in-
vested in equities in French industrial concerns and in banks.
In other words,
the very capital which was exported from France to Germany was coming back into
France, with the exception that in the transit, the control represented by this
capital passed into the hands of strangers.
This was sh.aireet. undesirable situa-
tion, and in passing he made the remark that it wasay4t6 different from the attitude of the American investor in France.
While American investors and bankers
were interested in making profitable ottwerterererividob investments, there was not the
same incentive nor desire to secure control of French enterprises that existed
among investors in certain other countries.
M. Moreau replied that he did not apprehend much trouble from the return
of French capital, because he imagined that it would be .0007 slow in ccming back,
even under a period of stabilization, and M. Quesnay advanced the ompoimmallows, re411
mark that he doubted if it would come back except under some sort of compulsion.
M. Moreau then said that, while they were anxious to proceed with a program
it was olylowletrImpossible for them to guarantee that a program of elaborate details
would be possible of institution.
The attitude of the Government on some of these
was quite impossible to predict.
details,
Mr. Strong replied that these details were not disconnected, but would
naturally
one after another, once a stabilization program was put into effect,
614,A)
tut that it was well to have the sequence in mind as early as possible.
For example,
the question of the reorganization of the currency would come up wanspromptly after
stabilization.
use.
The present unit, the franc, was entirely too small for convenient
Furthermore, the practice of issuing so, ll banknotes was .60.1.147 unsuited
for any bank of issue in a great country;
410
therefore he anticipated that the inev-
itable step following stabilization would be the creation of newlalLtin multiples
( page 11
of the present franc,
at business
)
naturally fall into the habit of
tAzt,
410
using such units, but that jvie could be facilitated if
were planned for from
tabilized in the neighborhood of ZIV,
iece cf 10 francs, worth about a quar-
would be a piece worth about 200 francs,
.
This natural sequence would in-
the Bank as soon as possible of bank-
50 francs, and their substitution by a
sed the question of the position of sil-
a value of something like 3 or 4 mil-
e utilization of this silver, oirwmossiser
evaluation not merely of the silver, but
osmeso would involve a aliodiris isi change
Bank.
Governor Strong was on his favorite sub-
t would be4orrirdifficult to persuade tle
, that the Bank of France was a civil and
rporation;
that it would be quilin ably 0.6
in gold and 71-MT-francs in Bons de la
ate would cancel its indebtedness to him
gold and merely leaving him 10,000
e same in the case of the silver.
lly the profits of seigi;Drage had
revalorization of gold, there
nd in the case of the silver, only
( page 12 )
part of the change in the value could be called seignAtrage, and the rest was
revaluation;
that the question of the bookkeeping profits derived from revalua-
tion was anikekrITY distinct from that of the profits of seignprage, and the two
should not be confused.
However, Governor Strong said, as a matter of policy it might be-.erm
...,perright for the Bank to accord to the State as much as it pleased of the benefits
arising out of this bookkeeping rearrangement, but the Bank should make its position
aaWreetf clear, that any benefit given to the State this way could not be claimed as
a right of the State;
that the assumptions underlying the Experts' report in this
matter and underlying much of the popular comment on it were aAiregmgelly false; that
if
the Government should be made to understand that/the Bank gave them this favor, it
was doing so eadawalf as 8.41ft
good 719)
M. Rist remarked that, at this point, the Government might say that if the
Bank of France refused this benefit, they would oblige them to restore immediate con
v
F
h
e
i
w
th
Ho
wo
me
Ru
of
411
( page 13
)
same dividend in paper as they received before the war in gold.
This could
be justified only on the assumption that at some time the paper francs which they
were receiving would be convertible into gold.
currency,AA6melaress, this hope would disappear.
With the reorganization of the
At the same time, if the share-
holders were asked to give up a very large part of the value which appeared in the
assets under the form of gold, they could not properly be expected to give up all
of that value;
yet if in the process of reorganizing the statement of the Bank
some sort of stock dividend were issued, it would 64-aomixas be necessary to take
into account the Bank's capacity to earn a dividend upon the increased capitalization.
if
a
;
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
-'"°.
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 24, 1926
Place:
Hotel Princess, Paris
Present: Governor Strong
Dr. Rist
Mr. Quesnay
Mr. Warren
Two hours.
Time:
This conversation was emaimpel, devoted to a discussion ofammieses topics
mentioned in the program prepared by Mr. Quesnay.
The first subject discussed was raised by Prof. Rist, who stated his be-
lief that it would be umpodangerous to announce at the outset the details of a program of stabilization, and especially to accompany such a program by the statement
that it was
Isierailiriblapsailuoirm
complete.
Governor Strong opposed to this suggestion the idea that the more complete
41/
and definite the program announced, the more it would be likely to inspire the confidence of foreign investors.
Mr. Quesnay, Isommovem, remarked that already, at the mere prospect of stabil
ization, there was developing a amply.issamiloserlaiodemand that the holders of the pub-
lic debt should receive some compensation which would recognize the fact that the
franc- which they had loaned to the Government were of ww4e4PrerrirlveRI higher value
than silmfmme at which it was proposed to stabilize.
34.-mig049-14Timmw.40941-44ch
public
opinion would have to be taken into account, as, if it were antagonized at an early
stage of the proceedings, it might develop sufficient opposition to retard the operation.
Referring to the demand in the program that the Bank should be given complete chargo of the monetary stabilization, and especially that it should be released
from all obligations to lend money to the State, it was suggested that perhaps the
411
most satisfactory form to present such a request to the political authority would be
to represent it as a return to the prewar status, rather than as a demand for some-
( page 2
thing eralipetrnew.
411
)
Before the war, the Bank of France did not lend money to
the State beyond a v ocesmall fixed sum, which was provided for in the charter.
However, Prof. Rist was jiii4lirrinsistent that political opposition was
likely to develop at the prospect of releasing the bank entirely from its subservlance to the State, and that the subject would have to be approached withammememik
dificiamis&caution.
The principal danger, it was agreed, came from the uncertainty
as to whether or not the budget would be balanced.
if the budget were not balanced,
idcomwervo~ette...41,apt the deficit could be met only by borrowing, either from the Bank
of France or from the money market.
Governor Strong emphasized the necessity of creating the circumstances
which would oblige the money market to take over the obligations which would be is-
T
sued to meet any deficit in the budget, provided such a deficit should arise during
theJAmcmAmcimoperiod of stabilization.
tie recognized,moimeommrs, that provided the
budget were,pimilly balanced, temporary advances to the State from the Bank of France
in anticipation of repayments which were certain to be made out of current
revenue, would ukoriPrsdo no harm.
:Ect
easy borrowing
porisOmiy
Nevertheless, in view of the fact that such
by the ireasury, it would be
better if such temporary borrowings were made 6.44,44,ftin the money market, rather
than from the Bank of prance.
under the topic "13 3" of M. Quesnay's program, which related to an under-
standing between the Bank and the Treasury relative to the discount rate and the
rate on Treasury bills, Governor Strong gave a brief account of the relations which
prevailed in the United States.
There, whenever the Treasury propcses an issue,
the Secretary of the Treasuryminver*,44y consults the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York.
Also, when the Federal Reserve Bank proposes to raise or lower its discount
rate, it lawmr4wity discusses such action with the Secretary of the Treasury.
arrangement does not suppose that either will be subservient to the other.
This
The
Federal Reserve Bank of New York does not pretend to dictate to the Treasury the
( page 3 )
terms of its borrowing, nor does the Treasury presume tc dictate to the Federal
Reserve Bank the terms upon which it will supply funds to the market, but because of the intimate relation, it is desirable and it has been found.orrirkreiase.
feasible to maintainoomftkil, exchange of views and the closest cooperation.
At this point in the discussion, Governor Strong inquired as to whether
the recent change in the rate of the Bank of France had been suggested by the
Treasury or had been initiated by the Bank,
inasmuch as the result of the in-
crease in the Bank rate from 65 to 47-Lg had been accompanied by an increase in the
Treasury bill rate merely from 5g to 65, leaving the differential between the discount rate and the Treasury bill rate rather wider than it had been before.
Prof. Rist stated that the initiative in this instance had come from the
Bank, but he also affirmed that the differential had not been changed, because the
Bank rate had been raisedireveiy from 65 to 75.
In this position, he was supported
by M. Quesnay, but a statement of the Bank was produced which showed that neither
111
of them was correct, either upon-the present discount rate of the-Bank of France
nor upon the rate which haa prevailed before the change, and as a matter of fact
the situation was as Governor Strong stated, namely:
that the differential be-
tween the discount rate and the Treasury rate had been widened as the result of the
recent change.
Under the topic "B 4" of M. Quesnay's program, which covered the operations of the Bank of France in the exchange market, Governor Strong emphasized the
need of securing an eor4remeimy able man to head such a department.
Professor Rist said that they were intending to secure as good a man as
they could, and that they had already received suggestions from a number of the
largest banks in Paris, who offered them the services of their own operator for this
position.
Passing down to the topic "C (a)", the question was raised as to the
41/
amount of the long-time Government loan.
Governor Strong leaned to the opinion
that such a loan should be as small as possible, because
the foreign debt charge
( page 4 )
of the French Government was alreadyyorronercus.
In his opinion, $100,000.40100
erC)
might be enough, and $150,000 in all probability would be the outside limit.
Professor Rist expressed the opinion that it would be necessary to have sufficient funds available at the outset to insure confidence, but Governor Strong re-
marked that if the borrowing was excessiverev, as for instance over 200 million
it would be in itself an expression of want of confidence by the French Government
and would in that way defeat theopepurpose for which it was raised.
M. Quesnay's prospectus had raised the question as to whether or not this loan
should be raised through the French Government's regular bankers, namely, J. P. Morgan
8, Company.
In this respect, Governor Strong remarked that, while of course the
French Government would he amoirtmilly free to select as its fiscal agent any firm which
it chose, they should remember that there was a wevyftesesimieraiipsdifference in both
-) the capacity and the reliability of various New York banking houses, and that if the
Ministry of Finance changed its bankers, they should take care not to trust too heavily in the promises of any fir
that firm to carry out its pr
New York firm other than thei
of Finance immediately do two
(1) That he should refer
for an opinion, and
(2) That no offer be con
the firm, and the terms thereof
Only in this way could th
rassing disappointment.
The next topic raised in
railway bonds to the scheme.
as offering either of two poss
111
time Government loan, which is
( page 5 )
"for distribution in France to afford a means of consolidating the floating
debt.
41'
It was 41;iiiwiiireeberrpointed out that these bcnds were probably unavailable,
,06.1magercertainly unsuitable, for either of these purposes.
and
First of all, for the
mobilization of these bonds it would be necessary to consider their legal status.
As a creditor, the rights of France, although proportionally large, were in no way
those of any other of Germany's creditors.
superior in law
Consequently, no
mobilization of these bonds could take place in the interests of France unless with
theconsentof every other creditor of the Reparations program.
p
4se.mirp4
doubtful
bond
.
such consent would be forthcoming.
It was orrisiaftati.
Second, the mobilization of these
would introduce a new feature into the Reparations program.
/hey could not be marketed unless the interest thereon could be given priority over
There was nothing in the bond itself cr in the Dawes Plan
or;der Reparation payments.
which assured these securities ofomal priority, and consequently the only way that they
4144,.
could be used in the manner proposed would be as.41,1011/orttrilgemeettr311,vrusaai act of grace
by the German Government.
There was no reason to believe that the German Government
would wish to accord such a favor to France, even if it could be imagined that the
French Government was prepared to ask such a favor of the German Government.
There
is a certain parallelism between the proposal to commercialize these German railway
bonds and the proposal to commercialize the French debt to the United States.
was
It
out of the question to commercialize any debt of France to the United
States, following the terms of the Mellon-Berenger agreement.
In somewhat the same
way, it would be extremely difficult to commercialize the German railway bonds under
00-0. 11/m74410, 4frilorMewirwr:t 44444444412.
the terms of the Dawes Plan
Furthermore, a loan floated, fcr example in New Ycrk,
first on the credit of the French Government and second with the proviso that at some
1
9
time it was expected to exchange it for railroad bonds, would in the opinion of Govt_
/46. 7/4/14v
error Strong beiusk...mb*s difficult to sell than the straight unsecured bond of the
40
1
French Government.
There was by no means an enthusiastic market for German securi-
i
in New York,
Digitized(ties
for FRASER
( page 6
)
in spite of the fact that a very considerable number of small
tt
age 7 )
using the railroad bonds in onnection with either the refunding of the proposed
stabilization loan or the consolidation of the floating debt was at the present time
out cf the question.
(It was quite obvious that this presentation of the status of the railroad bonds
was entirely unexpected to Professor Rist and was in fact a verr.,erimiam.disappointment.
While he did not say so, it seemed to be apparent from his general demeanor
that ho had been counting Isespreivearriiigy upon these securities to support the proposed
program of stabilization.)
The next question that arose under the program of M. Quesnay referred to the
proposed issue of Bank of France notes to meet the requirements of the Caisse de Gestion.
It was explained, however, that it was not ccntemplated that the Caisse de
Gestion should in any way transfer the internal floating debt tc an external funded
debt, and that nothing more was ccntemplated by this proposal than that, if the Caisse
do Cestion found itself in the necessity of reimbursing Bons de la Defense at a ratefaster th
ceeds cf
chase the
Takin
Strong rem
that headi
all four A
to secure
at the sam
applicatio
( page 3
)
60 million francs in Switzerland, M. Quesnay remarked that this loan had not been
discussed with the Bank of France but had been contracted without their knowledge
411
cr accord.
However, he remarked that it was not part of the stabilization program
and that this might be advanced as an explanation for the fact that the Government
had contracted this loan without reference to the wishes of the Bank.
Governor Strong then remarked upon the oarilaadar.:646,0erket prejudice which any sort
teiceAX
of secured loan would 0165 to the market for the existing French securities or fcr
any French securities to be offered in the future.
The exact terms of this railroad
loan had ftLmosommolonot yet been officially announced, but certain reports had been
circulated in the press which seemed to imply that this loan was secured by a pledge
uponoipawirefl State property.
If this were the case, 4.t.mhaiarhol4moullimmot it would
prejudice the status of all of the existing rrench loans, none of which are secured,
and would make itelv7/77 difficult in the future to issue any unsecured French
...WM.*
loan.
it would be necessary to provide security for all French loans if
4retrri-vm
security were provided for any, and the aggregate of these had reached such a figure
that it would involve pledging in one form or another to foreigners a wily great part
of the domain cf the French Government and of their specific revenues.
It was learned positively later that the loan in question of 60 million francs
from Saitzerland did not involve a specific pledge of State property, but it was op=
oghtway well that the disadvantages of introducing As pledgd:into the borrowing practice
of the Fronde Government
e emphasized to the authorities of
the Bank of France.
----______
...
Concluding, the conversation, Governor Strong remarked that the United States had
aopereal interest in stabilization - stabilization of France and general monetary
stabilization throughout the Continent cf Europe.
This interest was selfish, but it
waS not the kind of selfish interest which had been represented in the newspapers.
So long as monetary unsoundness prevailed in Europe, so long as conditions in Europe
411
represented a succession of inflationary booms and deflationary slumps, Europe
would
( page 9
)
remain a poor market for American products, most particularly for American farm
411
400161Cerr-,
products, because the purchasing power of the average European consumer wet too
61i
tr WV:
orgel to provide a market for our foodstuffs and cotton.
dp.
r.
There was, A--wms-ingisromr...-
an idea rather prevalent in the world that a nation got rich out of exports.
was ailip)usloVel- false.
This
Prosperity comes from the total exchange of goods, exports
and imports, and the United States could have a prosperous fa- eign trade only if
the markets of the world were good places to buy in and good places to sell in at
the same time.
For this reason, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was eabiamidlimmaw
interested in the question of stabilisation, because it viewed stabilization as the
only sure way of returning European markets to the normal purchasing power of prosperity, and because in the absence of such prosperous conditions in Europe
..--sper4,4tsr4imeisthe American farmer would have a.reilierbgAwreft poor market for his produc-
tion and would consequently suffer from a relatively poor price for the goods which
he produced, in comparison with the goods which he purchased.
Professor Rist then raised the question as to why the American price index had,
over a period of several months, been showing a steady tendency to decline.
He
asked whether, in the opinion of Governor Strong, this was merely a seasonal and
brief tendency or whether it was to be taken as an indication that prices in the
United States were showing a definite tendency to proceed to a lower level.
( Insert
)
Mr. Strong said that the American general price index was rather deceptive
as to the trend of prices in America and required careful analysis in order to
ascertain the causes of the trend.
Something like 53r. of the Department of
Labor index, by present weighting, was made up of agricultural and food products,
and xiik the decline in the prices of agricultural commodities and the decline
in the price of cotton combined had offset a fairly steady or even advance in
the price level for manufactured goods;
the declining tendency shown by Amer-
ican indices of prices which were comprehensive enough to include most agricultural production really was reflecting special declines that were taking place.
This decline in the value of agricultural production appeared to him tc reflect
somewhat the reduced power of consumption by Europe, especially of the more expensive foods produced in America.
The suggestion that a very active trade in
America was resulting in domestic consumption of these commodities, and consequently the export was declining from natural domestic causes, could not be sus-
tained, because domestic consumption of that character, which absorbed the surplus
of American production at a time when there was any demand at all from Europe
for these same goods, would result in advancing prices rather than declining
prices.
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 25. 1926
Place: Princess Hotel, Paris
Present:
Governor Strong
Professor Rist
M. Quesnay
M. Warren
Time: about 2 hours.
The conversation opened with the remark by Prof. Rist that it was extraordinary how many people still believed that the franc could go back to par, and how
many more who no longer expected it to go back to par were hopeful that it could
be very considerably appreciated in value.
Governor Strong remarked that the only possibility for such a maneuver would
be through an extremely drastic capital levy, and this again was possible only in
Gtelow<theory, har.a.use-it-.4ibloael4etalpy-impossible 44- practice.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Prof. Rist
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
then remarked that Prof. Jeze was one of the few eminent persons in
( page 2
fication,,4441mTrEuropean banks of issue would hesitate to give their support to
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
of St. Louis
the Bank
stabilization
scheme, because of the Ai.etay-litttyterea- doubt as to the 4.4441.44 of
( page 3
)
this of...4okome-would be a costly transaction.
'Znere remained,
however,
the suggested
proposal which
had been
in th
of dollar Treasury bills.
Governor Strong, however, explai
vantages:
Vvr.4.4(tA.,
(1) 4;4456,4morer in the character
t4.6%-s"
IFigoe
bye assimilated to
would be
ritt,or)
and with both objections, it wez-lrir
A
>64.0K transactions:.
0.,
/
kftePt
Passing on to the question of th
that the most eperketts difficul 44,6 i
eerthe first few months, and then aga
believed had been the case in a numbe
England.
Governor Strong questioned wheth
t14. 144
larly difficulty
accaoof-
As a matter of fac
A
as large as they were at the time tha
meantime been able to resume foreign
bilged to make use of their American
certain hidden assets - and yet, thei
Sat
France, because there was not that som
home.
On the whole, he was inclined
strike, the situation in England would
year.
.>
Passing then to the question of t
tion, against
iod44.41414A4ati.dur
checking wide fluctuations in the exch
411
of giving certain speculative advantag
( page 4 )
who were considering repatriating their capital, or to foreigners who might think
af buying francs.
Governor Strong, however, took the view that there was no
offereikh a speculative profit, and that on the contrary, the advantages of.s....comei.
,Aa4-thoroughgoing stabilization, once the moment had come to stabilize, Aoompf4.400per+, out
-telgktolany arguments that might be made in favor of a delayed process.
Referring again to the question of the duration of the credit, the relative advantages of a 1 -year credit with a privilege of renewal as contrastea with a 2-year
credit were discussed.
GLvernor Strong was of the opinion that a 2-year credit at
the outset might be too long, and taat the advantage favored a 1-year crea t
privilege of renewal.
with a
At the same time, he repeater: the probability that it would be
necessary to charge a commission in the case of any further Federal Reserve Bank credits.
M. Quesnay
raised the question then of the relative cheapness of employing the
( page 5
)
exchange of visits.
As for the question of the possibility of securing gold in the event that it
not rec
was desired to translate some of these credits into gold, there would of course be no
he doub
difficulties in the United States.
Any claim upon any American bank could be in-
support
stantly withdrawn in gold.
specifi
Under the topic of the proposed publication of a reserve ratio by the Bank of
France, Governor Strong sr recommended that this be done as soon as possible.
Ltatal6
take th
The public should be accustomed to look for fluctuations in the reserve.
At the out-
stabili
set, it probably would have a desirable influence upon public sentiment to see gold
coming into the Bank, whether from abroad or from the purchase of domestic gold.
France
stance
As for the question of an accord with the Bank of England, Governor Strong ei-
so/x.0e was not willing to speak for that institution, but he suggested that the Bank
of France establish contacts with the central banks of other European countries as
Co
sized t
from in
rapidly as possible, and that when the time cane for international credits, they might
He
would
England,
Sweden,
Switzerland
and
Holland.
Bank5of
consider approaching the
V
confere
( page 6
)
Genoa proposal of an international conference was wrong.
At Genoa, it had been
expected that 44epe would result as part of the stabilization process)a scramble for
gold
This had not materialized and there was no reason to believe that it would.
Prof. Rist then remarked that world prices in gold had for the past year or 18
months shown a steady tendency to decline.
He was inclined to attribute this to the
gold situation and gave the impression that he believed that world deflation was in
prospect owing to an insufficient supply of gold.
Governor Strong remarked that he saw no prospect of a gold shortage of size sufficient to cause general deflation;
that the only part of the world whose geld de-
As for the
mand seemed to be large enough to be a disturbing factor might Je India.
)(AT-LOC /If <
gold reserve of the United States, while it was true that the6total gold stock against
>7%0 (Ito
the total volume of currency and deposit liabilities was 1010, larger than before the
war, it must be remembered that it was very much more efficiently used; with 2 billion
800
million dollars
worth of gold in the vaults and nearly a billion more available in
( page 7
)
importance of permitting the Bank of France to control foreign loans, whether con411
tracted by French nationals abroad or loans of French capitalists to foreign countries;
he was inclined to believe that there was a real danger of France's over-
borrowing.
Already France was indebted forusrrlarge sums, and it was not desirable
that these should be expanded more than was absolutely necessary.
Passing then to the rate of stabilization, Governor Strong remarked that the two
principal things to determine the appropriateness of a given rate of stabilization were
prices and wages.
Prof. Rist remarked that one of the biggest factors in the question of both prices
and wages in France was rent control, as the f
nominal rent charges under the
present laws had a very considerable influence on both.
Governor Strong suggested that this matter be given the =Pet thorough study, in
order that over the next few years there should be a gradual and just revalorization
of existing leases.
circulation of the country might expand under stabilization by something like 507., as
for instance from 00 per capita to $75 per capita, if the exchange remained at about
its present level.
0
Governor Strong remarked that such an increase would be safe only if it were assumed that the Bank had control of the market, and in this connection, it was important
( page 2
)
that such a market be established in Paris, particularly for trading in short-time
0
Government securities.
17werProf. Rist,
of securities an
,
remarked that the banks were practically out of this kind
they did not seem at all anxious to invest in them.
Taking up the question of the floating debt, which was raised by this reference
to the market in Treasury paper, Governor Strong remarked that there were three possible means of meeting it:
(1) To reduce it by operation of a sinking fund
(2) To convert it into a longer
issue voluntarily
(3) A forced conversion.
The French Government had elected the first means, but this plan was defective in
that, while it provided for the retirement of the Treasury securities, it did not
make any provision for retiring the debt to the Bank.
The Bank, of course, could be
repaid in two ways: either cut of the proceeds of a foreign loan, or out of the acIIIcumulation of francs by the Government in the form of budgetary surpluses.
In any
event, to secure control of the market, it was desirable to be able to mobilize part
of the State's debt to the Bank.
Prof. Rist immediately raised the difficulties of inducing the State to mobilize
this debt, inasmuch as it would be obliged to exchange a security on which it paid
almost no interest for one on which it paid the market rate of interest.
14 ti-4-
Governor Strong showed that this was si6aa41.y.-466 parallel
Cimk ad.
aa..4..
case of the British
Treasury with regard to the currency notes in England.
Prof. Rist, however, remarked that the Government was not wholly averse to this
idea, and it was suggested that it might be possible to proceed/ to such mobilization
yoradfriterigradually-'may limiting the demand of the Bank upon the State to amounts merely
1144,464
of a size dim by the Bank for some particular operation.
The time when such an
operation was likely to be required would be one when money was easy and confidence
strong.
It was true that the Treasury could sell its securities at such a time as
( page 3
)
well as the Bank, but if the sale were entrusted to the Bank, it would facilitate
the Bank in getting the control of the market.
At the present time, the Treasury
itself conducted a kind of open market operation, in that whenever the public subscribed to Bons, the Government turned over the proceeds to the Lank and thereby
reduced its debt to the Bank.
However, under such a system, the Bank itself had
no option.das.44.utiash.ofdpeoloowpwwlirremertn".
Prof. Rist at this point remarked that there were certain people, particularly
Industrialists, who were desirous of a violent program of deflation without stabilization, their object being to provoke a crisis which would enable them to consolidate French industry into a few powerful groups, somewhat on the German model.
Governor Strong remarked that deflation without stabilization meant that higher
,/'
Treasury charges would occur at precisely the time when revenues from taxation were
41.4t
being reduced, and that it
State bankruptcy.
'
Passing then to .the question of the type of currency reform needed, Governor
Strong said that there were three choices:
(1) Abolition of the old unit and introduction of an entirely new one.
Such a
plan disturbed confidence and was ea.Laamoiry difficult to put into effect, saistimireerip
unless the value of the old unit had been 1,ractically destroyed.
(2) The second choice would be to make no change whatever, but to continue, even
after stabilization, with the same
during inflation.
of currency that had been in use
4 10.-
This, however, had the advantage in that it made no definite
break with the inflation period.
(3) The third was to retain the old unit, but gradually to introduce new units
or denominations more calculated to serve the convenience of the public.
M. Quesnay suggested that in the choice of the new denominations or units and
their value, there were three possibilities:
(1) The new unit could be stated in terms of a ccefficient of the old, as for
instance the value of the franc could be stated as being 1/7 of the
pre-war value.
(2) The
( page 4
)
second choice was to make it a fraction of a foreign currency, as
classes cf people in France seemed just,
analysis of the figures presented, Gove
( page 5
41/
)
between 160 and 170 would seem to be qu
always at its international purchasing power parity, because it is freely traded
ent conditions.
As for the relative ad
On
the
other
hand,
shoes
were
relatively
in in all markets all over the world.
namely, the
a p eliminary p
For
that
reason,
the
analysis
of
inunsensitive to movements of the exchange.
stabilized but would be limited in fluct
tion once determined upon would be carri
marked that he would support the idea of
limited to the time required to determin
occur, and during which a plan of stabil
had been determined upon and the plan fo
in putting the whole thing into effect a
likely to be drawn into a pegging operat
to failure.
At this point, Governor St
there were an unusual number of importan
and assuming for the moment that no ques
(-AO
err. bp
it would not bermarth-while for Governor
a thorough exchange of views and underst
stabilization.
Such a meeting would de
( page 6
)
Bank very full powers, and there were certain advantages in moving rapidly
under the present circumstances, since if action were delayed too long, the
present popular confidence would be allowed to become lost.
Prof. Rist, however, was of the opinion that such a meeting would be &beelutoly impossible without consulting the Government, although it was true that the
Government might be willing to permit such discussions.
Actually, Ilawevil; every-
thing hinged upon the ratification of the debts, and Prof. Rist
ilanthat
it
could not be denied that the prospects of debt ratification at the moment did not
seem very bright.
guard clause.
The public was extremely worried over the transfer and safe-
The public was also somewhat resentful over the American tariff,
and suspicious of American penetration.
They also resented what appeared to be
the lenient attitude of the United States toward Germany in securing such transfer
and safeguard clauses, while at the same time similar leniency did not seem to be
extended to France.
Governor Strong remarked that the whole atmosphere in regard to the American
debt had been clouded on both sides by misunderstandings, and to a certain extent
by misrepresentation.
M. Quesnay then remarked upon the fear expressed in certain quarters that the
world was entering upon a period of declining gold prices.
He was somewhat afraid
that France would be caught, as was Finland, with rising internal prices while gold
prices elsewhere were falling, and that this would complicate the difficulties of
stabilization, particularly if stabilization was effected at too high a level.
Governor Strong remarked that a general fall in prices would be due to only
one of two causes: the first would be over-production, the second would be general
monetary deflation.
As for over-production, the only sort of over-production
which seemed imminent was that of farm products, and it could not be denied that
the longer stabilization was poBtponed aver Europe, the greater the danger of a
general decline in farm products, owing to the low purchasing power of European
( page 7
populations.
0
)
As for the prospects of general deflation, none were in sight
As a matter of fact, if
anywhere except possibly in France, Italy and Belgium.
to convert part of the State debt to the Bank into a form
a decline in world prices was threatened from any quarter, it was threatened from
In all probab
the increase of the commercial portfolio.
these unstabilized countries and the reduced purchasing power of European populaeuver would at first increase the cost of borrowing by th
tions, whose standard of living was threatened by a continuation of unsound monetary
permit the Bank to gain effeZzcontrol of the money mar
policies.
The recent decline in world prices was due very largely to the low
levels, and thus A.44;irrimmi;4. reduce the debt
purchasing power and low consumption of the masses of Europe, resulting from inflapermitting reduced interest upon the short-time debt and
tion, and at present continued even under stabilization by-the-enormous number of
This naturally led to a question of th
the longer debt.
unemployed. .0?..#'0
604.044.-440,4ri-b
1444604)41-44.1.44171/4141P"'"44'.
short-time debt and a renewed discussion of the possibilit
Passing then to a discussion of the relation between the Bank and the Treasury,
Governor Strong was again wile
bonds for this purpose.
Governor Strong remarked that if a central bank had a very large portfolio, compargestion was 506.6. impossible of application at the presen
atively small changes in the rate at not very high levels was ext.emeely effective
reason to believe that it would meet thaLelighteet support
upon the market, while if the portfolio of the Bank was small, much wider changes
A
and muchsimilar
higher effect.
levels of This
the discount
rate
were required
in order in
to view
produce
a
was a very
important
consideration,
of the
proposal
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
COFVERSATION OF AUGUST 27, 1926
Place:
Hotel Princess, Paris
Present: Governor Strong
Professor Rist
Quesnay
Mr. Warren
Time:
About 2 hours.
At the opening, Prof. Rist referred to the hypothetical question raised by
Governor Strong the day before, as to the possibilities of an informal meeting with
American bankers for the purpose of diLcussing details of a plan.
Prof. Rist stated
that M. Moreau's opinion was that such a meeting was;ORt* out of the question at
the present time.
Turning then to the program, he remarked that one of the first
steps which the Bank desired to take was the purchase of gold in the domestic marke t.
The Government was favorable to this idea and was anxious to have them start Ls soon
as possible.
The Regents, hoaever, were still firm in their opposition.
Governor Strong then asked whether the commencement of purchase of gold would
not automatically put the Bank in the position of being so
at responsible for the
exchange.
Prof. Rist was of the opinion this would not be the case, because at any time the
Bank could suspend purchases.
The gold so bought would be kept as a separate item.
When Governor Strong opposed some objection to such a further complication of the
balance sheet, it was explained that this idea of keeping new gold purchased under a
separate item, whether purchased at home or abroad, was merely a temporary measure
until final d-termination of the new rate, as until that time, it would be impossible
to adjust the corresponding items in the liabilities if any attempt was made to combine
the new gold with the old.
Governor Strong then raised the question as to how the Bank would be able to comply with the law, which requires 1001. cover for notes issued against new gold and ex-
( page 2
)
change and demands that, if gold cr exchange is lost, an equivalent amount of notes
410
must be retired.
In the event of a rise in the franc, as for instance from 175 to
150, automatically a certain number cf notes would be left uncovered.
M. Quesnay explained, however, that as the law provides the Bank should make
neither a profit nor a loss on this transaction, the less in such a case would be
adjusted by assessing it sw-a.siamagg.a against the Treasury.
This question of profit and loss had also arisen in connection with the possible
interest to be earned by the Rork on its valuta deposit.
It was interpreted, how-
ever, as not meaning that the Bank would not be authorized to earn interest on such
accounts, although naturally the earnings on valuta turned over to it by the State
would be still regarded as the property of the State, and the Bank would operate merely as an agent in such a transaction.
Mr. Strong then raised the question of the need of securing an sAtesserilly able man
to handle the exchange department of the Bank.
411
Such men, he said, were ely dif-
ficult to get, particularly at the scale of salary prevailing in the Bank of France.
It was also e
melt' undesirable that their exchange expert should be a man with s .ere
previous local attachments.
Dr. Rist said, however, that the Bank intended to offer a salary adequate to secure a competent man.
The question of valuta deposits again arose.
With the margin of issue so
narrow, it was clear that the Bank had voselittle room for maneuver.
f
Prof. Rist and
M. Quesnay both remarked that the pressure for credit was becoming large and said that
that v
j day the Director of the Societe Generale had said that they had been obliged
to refuse requests for credit from a .psert number of their clients.
At the same time,
Prof. Rist remarked that while the demand for credit was growing, it did not appear to
have reached an acute stage, as there was not the slightest evidence of unemployment.
In the opinion of both M. Rist and M. Quesnay, this fact was partly to be explained by
the release of hoards,
y perhaps under the pressure of higher money, and more
( page 3
probably
)
der the revival of confidence a considerable amount of hoarded cur-
rency was being brought out, and thus the demand for credit was not finding its
fullest expression as yet.
Nevertheless, both were convinced that within a very
short time the demand for credit would reach large proportions and would probably
necessitate the introduction of rationing.
In this connection, they suggested
that, while there were several theories of rationing, the one which they were most
inclined to was that employed by Governor Moreau in Algeria, namely, the allotment
of certain lines of credit to each branch of the Bank and leaving it to the Manager's discretion to employ such a sum to the best advantage.
This also was the
method used in Germany.
Continuing the discussion of valuta deposits, Governor Strong raised the
tion of whether the Bank intended to lend francs against such deposits.
ques-
This, it
appeared, would put the Bank into the swap market on a large scale.
Prof. Rist said that such was not the in
411
of the Bank.
The idea hadAigt-
been written into the Experts' report at the insistence of the representative of the
Banque de Paris, but such a policy of putting the Bank with unlimited powers of issue into the swap market would run contrary to all the policy of the Bank and Government for many years.
They had, however, thought that they might offer, not int-
erest on such valuta deposits, but possibly a special lending rate against such
items.
The same might also be used in the case of gold brought to the Bank; in
case the owners did not wish to sell it for currency or exchange it at the Bank for
a security they might leave it on deposit with the Bank and secure a loan against it
as collateral.
Governor Strong remarked that the opening of a valuta deposit account introduced into the Bank of France certain of the features of a gold discount bank.
How-
ever, the real function of a gold discount bank was not so such to lend francs
(3.47
against the deposit of pounds or dollars, but to lend dollars or pounds
rfrancare-4
Kt
i=e47Passing down to
( pege 4
)
in connection with the interest charged or received upon these valuta deposits,
411
Geyer Strong raised the question of the facilities offered by the market for the
employment of very short funds.
It appeared that at the present moment practically
the only available market for the employment of short liquid capital lay in the
Treasury current account.
This of course was recognized by Prof. Rist as being an
unnatural state of affairs, as it was embarrassing to the Treasury";
a di
ct competitor
i the Bank, which offered no interest on deposits.
Governor Strong then raised the question of the Caisse de Gestion.
While it
was true that this institution was provided with a very considerable aLlount of current income, it had no working capital.
In the event of a sudden demand for reim-
bursement in excess of its income, was it contemplated that the Caisse should apply
to the Bank for accommodation?
Prof. Rist said that under the circumstances it could do nothing else.
The
Experts' plan had intended to endow it from the outset with capital derived from a
foreign loan.
This was not now incorporated in the law of the Caisse de Gestion,
and consequently they might at any time find themselves confronted with the old situation, in which, however, a direct loan to the State would be changed nominally into
an indirect loan to the State through the Caisse.
It was pointed out, however, that
under the program submitted by M. Quesnay, it was contemplated that notes issued at
the demand of the Caisse should be covered by valuta furnished by the State to the
Bank out of the proceeds of its external loan.
M. Quesnay also suggested that in the event of such a demand for reimbursement,
the State and the Bank could agree not to permit the Bank to issue notes to reimburse these maturing Bons, but insist that the money market absorb them.
A question arising as to the statutes of the Bank, Governor Strong asked that a
complete set of such statutes be secured, if such were available.
Reverting to his previously stated objections about taxation, Governor Strong
remarked that sooner or later it would be
necessary that France should
Passing down to the question
he had six possible solutions:
( page E.
)
reorganize its tax system on a more equitable basis.
410
(1
ual amortization, (4) exchange for
When this question
came
opoly, ( ) repayment by the Bank o
on the course
to be considered, would the Bank of France have any influence
Noneofofthe
these except
eign loan.
7
discussion.
ticularly attractive, and most of
inasProf. Rist said that the Bank could have no direct influence
on taxation,
was likely
to occur in in one of t
However, they might exmuch as this was regarded as a peculiarly political matter. forced
consolidation or forced con
and articles 41a*Am
ert a certain amount of influence through discussion, 4alawieampe44.111T
On the other hard, if the stabiliz
,
page 6
)
probably be possible to do something on a voluntary basis, on reasonably good
terms.
Either way, it was important to have a plan in mind, as the present plan
110
of gradual amortization was so slow that for years the situation would be threatened by the existence of this debt.
The question then arose as to whether, with the increase in tax payments which
might be expected to occur within a few weeks now, there would not be some demand for
reimbursement of these Bons to raise money to pay taxes.
Governor Strong therefore
asked whether it was Prof. '.List's opinion that an acute crisis over the floating debt
was likely to arise within, say, two months.
Prof. Rist thought that it would not come within two months, but he would not be
sure that it would not arise within, say, four months.
pressed himself as
hopeful.
However, Prof. Rist ex-
He had beenr(34stil last Spring;
he had been
ver(doubtful as to whether or not the Treasury would be able to get through the
- =
month of August without a crisis.
411
He was therefore ext
Both times he had been agreeably disappointed.
y hopeful that his gloomy forecast of the possibility of a
crisis within four months would prove equally vain.
Governor Strong cautioned him against basing too firm hopes upon the optimistic
features of the present moment, as some of these were undoubtedly temporary and it
was enj
y open to question whether they wcatIrictertosnistrt--trr-ccrertinunue-ep of
sufficient magnitude to avoid the consequences of the weve,-ETave weaknesses witieh--
were inherent in the situation as it was today.
M. Quesnay supported this view very-eobrenriy.
He said that, while at the mo-
ment the franc was stable but not stabilized, public confidence in the stability of
the exchange was not very firm;
in fact, people were openly skeptical.
The present
confidence, to a certain extent, was based upon the quietness of the exchange, but
-apposyciase-isseer-a4-4,ettris everyone in financial circles knew a that
some time in Sep-
tember or October, seasonal demands upon the exchange would make themselves felt and
aeople were *erz,apprehensive as to what would happen at that time.
Governor Strong then raised the question of
the possibility of doing something
( page 7
)
with the tobacco securities, but Prof. Rist was of the opinion - and in this he
was supported by M. Quesnay - that at the moment it would be Owl/Wary i:rpossible
111
for the Government or the tobacco monopoly to issue any kind of a long-term security in France.
Prof. Rist, however, advanced the belief that if no crisis happened between now
and perhaps March or April of next year, a funding operation of that sort might be
possible and probably would be.
Governor Strong then inquired as to the character of the management of the
floating debt in the Treasury - whether any flexibility or imagination was employed
in its handling.
Prof. Rist said that the entire operation was mechanical and automatic, with the
exception of the operation of the investments of the Caisse de Depots et de Consignations.
Up to the present time, this Caisse had been yer'reluctant to buy short
of interest
available
other
of return
Government
-and (4)....sf-seoposf-so
securities,
for two
romene4on
(1)
the types
rate of
was bonds
substantially
below the rate Gov-
ernor Strong pointed out, theabsence of a market in these short securities made them
a vvy undesirable type of investment for an institution like the Caisse, which was
subject to heavy demands for withdrawals from its depositors.
Except for the flex-
ibility offered by the purchases of the Caisse, there seemed to be no flexibility
whatever provided in the handling of this mass of debt.
Governor Strong then made the remark that losprwert- many people - and he was not
sure that he should not be included in this list - were of the opinion that stabili-
zation on a secure basis was .way out of the question until some more permanent
4,
;
disposition was made of the floating debt.
Until-the situation was relieved of the
msnaca-prssented from this quarter, confidence was very difficult to secure, as at
any-time the situation might be upset with very little warning.
Prof. Rist agreed fully with this position and said that indeed the floating debt
111
was a kind of "sword of Damocles" hanging over their head.
Turning then to the question of the flight of capital, Prof.
Rist said that the
( page 8 )
Government was e
ely embarrassed by the entire problem and would be very glad
to turn it over to the Bank to get rid of it.
11,
Governor Strong said that there were three ways of bringing capital back:
(1) The first was to apply some measure of force to oblige people to repatriate
their capital.
(2) The second was to propose some sort of inducement or attraction to lure it
back.
(3) The third, which had been found sufficient in certain countries like England
and Switzerland, where the value of the currency had not been greatly lost, - the
natural and spontaneous revival of confidence - had been sufficient.
For France, it seemed vg
doubtful whether this capital could be brought back
except by the use of some sort of pressure.
Prof. Rist, however, rerarked that it was varl/difficult to apply pressure, for
example by the restriction of credit, whether by rationing or by a high Bank rate, as
1111
holders of the floating debt could evade the consequences of it either by discounting
their Treasury bills or by simply allowing them to mature.
M. Quesnay then expressed the opinion that something might be done under such
circumstances by forcing the Banks to take over Treasury paper as fast as it was presented at maturity under such circumstances.
Governor Strong then raised the question as to what would happen if the debts
were ratified by the complete program of monetary reform was not regarded as satisfactory.
Under such circumstances, obviously a certain amount of the foreign support
on which they were counting would not or might not prove to be available.
This had
been the case with Belgium, where after the debt ratification the program of reform
(-4
41---
was not regarded as sufficient to justify foreign cooperation on the scale required
dc
to stabilize the currency.
Suppose this same situation should arise in France.
Would the French Government and the French public consider that they had been "1st
ID
down"'
This idea had been vary indr.41141y circulated in Belgium.
Without presum-
( page 9
)
ing to speak for various Governors of other banks of issue, Governor Strong said
that he could readily imagine the questions which would be raised, even after the
debts were ratified, in connection with the program of stabilization.
For in-
stance, the first thing that Governor Norman would inquire would be as to the status
of the Bank, whether its independence was fully assured.
With Governor Vissering,
the foremost question would be fixing of the measure of value.
With Governor Bach-
mann, the question of the disposition of the floating debt and the availabilities of
adequate foreign credit would be uppermost, while Dr. Schacht would also stress the
dangers of the floating debt and probably advocate forced conversion.
In his con-
versations with Dr. Schacht, he had learned that the latter was of the opinion that
only forced conversion of the floating debt would provide the necessary assurance.
Governor Strong had asked him whether he was not attempting to apply measure which
might be successful in Germany to a people of radically diffe ent temperament, but he
7)4440' 04.,
was sure that Dr. Schacht's reply to such a questio
Jeas-that what had worked in Bel-
1, gium ought to be applicable to France.
Speaking of this question of forced conversion, Governor Strong stated that he did
not believe that forced consolidation would endanger the credit of France abroad.
M. Quesnay, however, was sInangl of the opinion that forced conversion would have
4,401,t
effect upon French Government credit within France, and M. Rist quoted
from the Experts' report the phrase that "the credit of France is indivisible.'
Governor Strong remarked that of course they were better judges of the reaction of
the French people to any measure than ani outsider would be, but that as far as influence on French credit abroad was concerned, there was A° particular risk for France.
He was further inclined to believe that, while a certain amount of extraordinary demand
for credit might arise or would arise, even as a consequence of forced consolidation of
a previously liquid security, this would not reach a magnitude sufficient to be dangerous, provided the Bank of France was in a position to exercise a reasonable measure of
control over the money market.
The conversation concluded with a warning of the dan-
gers of reposing too much confidence in the optimistic
features of the moment, as these
were to a considerable extent superficial.
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 28, 1926
( page 2
)
Continuing in the discussion of the program, which provides that in the event
of an excessive influx of valuta it` can beietreaght-in in the form of gold and this
II/
74%.eit.
,1
gold put into circulation, Governor Strong remarked that the .0.4e) value of such a
process would be on the assumption that this gold would be hoarded and would thus
pass out of active circulation.
This was neither a good habit to cultivate nor a
It would be far:preferable to create
Tory dependable measure of monetary control.
a good market in which the Bank could sell Government securities when it was necessary to contract circulation.
M. Quesnay remarked that another method, provided the Bank found itself with an
excess of valuta, would be to encourage foreign loans, that is, loans of French persons to foreign countries.
A '
Governor Strong agre9dwith this point.4p4
'At I
Attil 0410'1064)
0
r.
Governor Strong then repeated the point he had made at the and of the previous
tively small
fluctuations
in thethe
rate,
while ifthe
thegreater
portfolio
conversation,
namely,
that the larger
portfolio,
the itself
effect wereevAry
of rela- small,
very wide fluctuations would be required to produce the same effect and in the event
of a desire to contract
high rates.
Prof. Rist remarked that this whole idea of money market control, whether throug
the discount rate or through market operations, was vesf-auch-d a novelty in Francs.
Before the war, French commercial banks had regularly maintained eactramsby large
portfolios of London bills.
Governor Strong said that this had wafilembeedly meant that the French monetary
f
(
1,4-4.4.4.41c
position was regulated on London, 'AAA it was an. outigrowli of the fact that the dis7->
count rate of the Bank of France was too low and too inflexibler
4heATeee
very,
facts, leading to the regulation of the French monetary position through London and
.0 lip
through Berlin, had practically destroyed the independence of the French money market
and'aet the control of thti market had been abandoned, even before the war by the
41111
Bank of France r
( page 3
)
Passing then to a discussion of the recasting of the Bank of France statement,
Governor Strong remarked that while the law provided that during the process of
reaching stabilization, all loss or profit on the transaction should belong to the
(A
State, he supposed that once stabilization
viere3oaffectiv
the Bank would retain the
344
usual profits and losses on its exchange operations, julsre anybanko-wain-owect.
Prof. Rist and M. Quesnay both agreed to this, and M. Quesnay added that after
stabilization the Bank alone would be responsible for the regulation of the market,
but that up to that time the State was responsible.and-ttnreit was consequently nec-
essary that the State should bear the loss, and in that case of course also receive
the profit.
This would be an undesirable situationer, to perpetuate.
Governor Strong then took up the question of the circumstances which would follow stabilization with reference to the sale of the valuta holdings of the commercial banks to the Bank of France.
As at this period the market would be presumably
operating under a high discount rate, there would be every inducement for the commerCZ-
cial banks to 4,Seent valuta rather than to discount.
feature of a policy of forcing the return of valuta.
This would of -coos, be a
At that time it would probably
be necessary to sell securities to offset the easing tendency, but under such circumstances, namely of high interest and of some commercial depression, it would probably be safer to expand the note issue than it would under certain other circumstances.
Taking up the proposal in the program that after the revalorization of the
gold the State's debt to the Bank would amount to a total of 25 milliards, Governor
Strong questioned whether the program a proposal that a residue of 10 milliards be
left as a permanen
debt and merely 15 milliards be made mobilizable would bean.-
adequate distribution.
41!
ate in the market.
Fifteen milliards was a very small sum with which to oper1
,(litte4)
However, M. Quesnay pointed out that this would not represent the total of se-
( page 4 )
curities available for utilization in market operations, as there would be be-
e
sides this 15 milliards, 50 milliards of the existing floating debt, plus 5 milliards of new Treasury bills to be added.
This would give a total of some 70
milliards of floating debt in the market, with which the Bank in cooperation with
the Caisse de Gestion could operate.
Governor Strong then raised the question as to whether, under this
proposal,
the right of the Bank to purchase prior to selling would be impaired, but M. Quesnay did not think that it should.
Governor Strong then raised the question as to what legal provisions authorized
the State to erect embargoes on imports or exports.
Prof. Rist explained that there was no law providing for embargoes on imports,
but that an old law was invoked to prohibit exports of certain food products, in
order artificially to reduce the price of such commodities.
This law was now in
their
taxreasons
position.
force and
wasfavorable
one of the
advanced by the agricultural interests to excuse
Governor Strong said that, while in theory he inclined toward free trade ideas,
as a matter of practice they were *W04404hummunkaZike under the present conditions.
For example, any abrupt change in the American tariff policy would undoubtedly work
injury rather than benefit to Europe, since it would icrovoke an industrial crisis in
the United States which would destroy the very market for European goods which theoretically a tariff reduction night be expected to expand.
However, he thought that
some benefit might be obtained in France by restrictions on purely luxury imports.
Passing down to the question of securing a favorable public reception of the
scheme, Governor Strong remarked that one of the barriers was the great secrecy
which the Treasury maintained about it operations.
He believed that the Treasury
021,7(
should publish regulad. y
-ay its statement of income and expenditures
and the position of the floating debt.
111
Prof. Hist remarked that .wadembthe Experts'
propoldthe
Caisse was alidged,401
( page 5
)
publish such statements, and he agreed that it would be desirable for the Treasury
411
to keep the public informed.
Governor Strong added that if it were the United States, he would recommend
that the Bank should secure a good publicity expert.
In any event, it was important
to remember that some of the most severe crises in French finance had been due to the
sudden discovery of an unfavorable situation which had been running over a considerable period.
When anything of an unfavorable nature is overhanging the market,
candid disclosure and frank explanation is 39...werks preferable to a discovery, which
sooner or later is bound to occur.
Prof. Fist remarked that this policy of secretiveness had grown up in the Government during the war and it had been since continued, so that the Government sup-
plied its financial information, not publicly to the Chamber, but confidentially to
commissions of the Chamber.
m.
.-Governor Strong remarked that this all complicated the securing
of public e/rrl'
sup portfor sound measures; that one of the +mawas of the Experts',P1AD was the fac
that }t itas not "sold" to the public.
It received very little attention from the
newspapers and no effort was made to popularize it.
Another policy should be adop
with regard to this program of stabilization, and every effort should be made to ex
plain it to the public in words of one syllable, so that they should have the fullest idea of what was going on.
This would be particularly desirable in view of
the possibility or probability that its institution would be associated with a cert
ain measure of hardship.
The public would be much more ready and willing to accep
this difficult period if it understood completely what was going on, and in fact su
alfunderstanding might wealywoola reduce the actual hardships which would be experienced.
Passing to the question of the per capita circulation, Governor Strong recomme
. ed that in their studies of the probable amount required or justified, it was more
desirable to make comparison with countries where similar monetary and banking
( page 6
)
habits prevailed, 1:gstieer than with countries which had entirely different habits.
411
He believed that far greater value would be derived from studies of the per capita
circulation of such countries as Belgium, Germany and Italy than by attempting to
make comparisons with countries like the United States and England, where most of
the circulating medium of the country was in the form of bank deposits.
Prof. Rist remarked that it was v
difficult an
Ito secure figures of
bank deposits in France, owing tc the fact that only a few of the banks published
monthly statements, and not all of the banks published annual statements.
Governor Strong added thatlit would be impossible to make too comprehensive
studies regarding the changes which had occurred since before the war in prices and
wages, in determining the amount of circulation required.
Prof. Rist remarked that the data for France was e)5pacrely incomplete; which
rn Stro
Goveor
recognized, and &01444a111 that probably the awl - data-they could
(Thera
get-th
411
-
t
0.
I
tA.
vbelf4.01 would be samples from various industries.
A
He explained
briefly the methods employed by Dr. Snyder of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
in getting his index of wages, and suggested that an account of this be sent to the
Bank of France to assist them in making similar studies.
M. Quesnay remarked that the Reichsbank had developed a very considerable sta-
4-61-atistical organization of this sor-,
reguladaig the rela44eml-e4 credit supplied to
A
A
specific induetrieeN cad.that\,4henever it was discovered that the price of any given
group of commodities in Germany was rising faster than the world price of a similar
group, credit was restricted in that particular industry.
Governer Strong then inquired as to whether France had any considerable liabilities for silver arising out of the Latin Monetary Union, except in the case of Switzerland.
Prof. Rist said that practically their only liability
existed toward Switzer-
land, because the silver currency of all the countries of the Latin Monetary Union
had drifted into that country.
( page 7
)
Governor Strong then mentioned the advantages which would accrue to the State
out of the
reintroduction of a silver coinage, and stated that he did not think that
take advantage
of in
the
opportunities
for LI_ of the am
the French Government could afford not to.trAmeli
important
arriving
at an estivate
the introduction
of a silenbrmous profit out of seigniorage which ably
wouldrequired
arise from
to carry
through a stabilization
scheme.
ver coinage.
themovements
limitations
This of course involved the
definitive
breaking
with
gained
from the
study of
gold
before the war.
prescribed by the Latin Monetary Union. the panic cf 1907, the United States received in a sin
difficult
to put figure was
M. Quesnay remarked that at the present
it would
lars time
in gold.
In be
the1patil
nineties,
a similar
a new silver coin into circulation;
a ;pry
consi,rfible
quantity
one leer as
currency
al years,
owing to
such conditions
industrial depre
to tariff
some extent
it still circulated at its
was still in the hands of the public, andand
changes.
face value.
The public would hardly be readyInto1914,
accept
new silver
coin
of approxthea United
States
exported
130 millions
imately the size cf the old silver franc few
at five
times These\would
orOTWYtivv\AAZ"'
six timesoffer
the face
some value
guide of
as to the m
months.
the old coin.
which might be required under two circumstances: (1) p
Governor Strong then took up the question
of the
payments
andwas
referred
tion, and
(2) balance
assuming of
that
the Bank
able to functi
EIN/14
tv
to M. Menehoul's estimate that the flightmeet
of capital
during
to 700
somethisA , tie
Bank1924-25
alreadyran
hadup
over
million dolla
., thing like 10 milliards each year.
This study of the balance of payments was 46101g'
added 300 million or so in credits, the total would cer
two conditions just mentioned.
page 8
(
)
Governor Strong then gave a brief description of the Belgian operation and
This was a pegging operation, pure and simple.
IIIits failure.
The commercial banks
of Belgium did not cooperate in the scheme and indeed did not believe in it.
Bel-
,,
gium secured extemporary credit°of 27 million dollare,utt whispers of the unsoundness of the proposals began to circulate and a flight of capital immediately set in
(I7
on a large scale.
The Bank did not advance its rate until the whole credit had been
exhausted, and indeed supplied to the market the very funds which it needed in order
to finance its export of capital.
There was then a brief period of restored confi-
dence, during which the Bank and the Government were able to repurchase a part of the
The plan of stabilization was announced, but the bankers
valuta which they had sold.
still refused to believe in it, because it involved the use of short credits, because
it was thought that the rate of stabilization was too high, because of an unfavorable
et%
political situation, etc.
14-6e(
when such an-announeement was
rt
t
= ,tutAttz irr;
Mr. Jannsen announred-'that he had secured a loan at a time
Jik
tc4
another
burst
neorrect
-and whenThe
theresult
marketwas
knew
that it
was of sellin
inzacrect...
funds required to finance the export of capital, i
vances to the Government.
Prof. Rist then remp.ked that the Belgian epis
/0'
of the dangerous floating debt, and Governor Stron
existence of this floating debt which was responsi
scheme.
M. Quesnay said that there was a certain relat
French situation, in that they did not have the coo
In Belgium the bankers not only had refused to coop
the scheme made haste to sell the market.
Governor Strcng remarked that under such circu
/e
while to raise the Bank rate, say to 9%.
111
Whether
ive, it was impossible to say, but it would have be
( page 9
)
had found under the period of the Rentenmark that even a 10% bank rate was scarcely
Ili sufficient to be effective.eqc?#
ruchrrof otov9
.71.4444tiz-mp/17,
M. Quesnay then added that one of the reasons which had contributed to the
failure of the Belgian scheme was the fact of the close relation which existed in
everyone's mind between the rate on the Belgian franc and the rate on the French
franc.
It was hard for people to believe that the Belgian franc was worth 107 to
the pound when they saw the French franc slipping from a similar figure to 120 or
130 and so on down.
Governor Strong remarked that this illustrated the advantage of simultaneous
action in the three remaining countries looking towards stabilization, and again expressed his opinion that something might be stirring in Italy at the present time.
It seemed to him desirable that France should act first, for the reasons given in the
previous day's discussion.
M. Quesnay remarked that the idea of a common and simultaneous plan of stabilize. tion in the three countries had been even discussed, but that it presented sjiptettfdifficulties.
6'
d t
eto
Governor Strong 300ed that it would be IrAir? difficult, and it W89 remarked by
Prof. Rist that, because the position of the Bank of France was stronger than that of
either Italy or Belgium, people would be inclined to think that under a simultaneous
plan, particularly if it got into difficulties, the Bank of France was trying to carry
those other countries.
Further, M. Quesnay remarked that in the event of a failure
of stabilization in one country or the other, it would be very easy for politicians
to throw the blame upon the action of one of their neighbors.
Governor Strong then referred to the necessity of creating a money market, and
added that the surest way to induce cooperation would be to create an unsatisfied
demand for Government securities.
To this end, he suggested that the Treasury re-
fuse to sell Bons de la Defense to the banks and oblige them to secure such paper
"'from the market.
This would automatically create the beginnings of a market in this
( page 10
)
kind of paper.
Prof. Rist said, however, that this presupposed,
tillrf:r Treasury paper
'o
on the part of the banks and that this
o- effect so long as
the Treasury was dumping its securities into the market as fast as it could.
Mr. Warren called attention to the fact that the amount of securities which
the Treasury was authorized to put into the market from now on reached very large
figures.
The ordinary Bons de la Defense were capable of expansion by some 5 or
6 milliards, in addition to which the Government was authorized to issue 5 milliards
of a new type of Treasury bill and to borrow 2 milliards from the Bank.
M. Quesnay suggested that the subscriptions now coming in to the Government
through the sale of securities ought really to form the capital of the new (Aims de
Gestion, instead of which they were being appropriated by the Government and used
for the purpose of repaying the Bank sums which it would be empowered to reborrow
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
from the Bank after
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
the Uaisse de Gestion had begun its functions.
it was suggested
( page 11
)
which the Treasury "tempted to conduct this marketing operation.
The duty was
to the Federal Reserve Bank, with far more satisfactory results.
Possibly there would be ways of inducing more businesslike methods into the French
Treasury.
M. Rist remarked that it appeared that something coule be done in this line,
since the subscriptions to Bons seemed to be very sensitive to waves of sentiment.
Qb-e,
r.
0r4i4 then requested that, before the next meeting, the Bank should prepare a list of
the elements of the program which it considered absolutely essential and inflexible,
and a second list of those elements of the program regarding which certain flexibility or latitude would be permissible, without destroying the effectiveness of the
scheme.
For example, it was essential to revalue the gold, but the question of how
the profit of revelcrization should be distributed was a matter for discussion.
As
a second example, it was alomertely essential that the program of stabilization
should have permanence and continuity,
e exact magnitude of the foreign loans
required would certaarly be a matter of question.
In conclusion, Mr. Strong stressed the importance of securing money market con.
4->
trol and of the repayment from the State oits debt to the Bank.
Prof. Rist and M. Quesnay said that they were fully in acccrd that these were
essential features of the program.
Governor Strong then added that, so long as the floating debt was overhanging
the market, it would be e
ely difficult to borrow abroad.
Many eminent finan-
ciers upon whose help they would have to rely were of the opinion that stabilization
was impossible so long as this floating debt overhung the market.
He raised the
question again of voluntary consolidation, but Prof. Rist remarked that the opportun-
ities for this were now limited, since popular enthusiasm had already been exhausted
by the campaign of voluntary contributions, and that the fuss made over the consti-
tutionalization of the Caisse de Gestion had intensified the tion
opposition
of the to
debt.
ccnsolida-
Governor Strong repeated that
( page 12
)
this floating debt and regarded it as .11157;tbaefirb-ttneteppevabable menace.
M. Quesnay raised the possibility of consolidating a part of this floating
debt in connection with the receipts of gold from the public.
It might be possi-
ble to induce some persons who brought in gold to accept payment in a form which
would consolidate a certain amount of the Bons.
would
be income
impossible
to tobacco
employ the tonues affected
the raised
Caisse the
de Gestion.
Governor
Strongtothen
question ofItthe
total
of the
a n OneIC
bacc o securities to fttnd the floating debt, since the holders of the unfunded remainmonopoly applicable to the floating
debt.
A
der could
the of
security
backofofabout
their11holdings
had but
beenagreed
impaired,
Prof.
Rist claim
gave athat
figure
last year
milliards,
that and this
security had been granted to them by the Constitution.
it would be probable that under better management this revenue could be increased.
Altogether, Governor Strong said that he regarded the institution of,o,Caisse
However, it was clear that the capital value of the tobacco monopoly could hardly
ttIS
r-0-/Ak r
!?)
de Gestion as a thiseemeillYJamia mistake,
since
in appropriating
the Strong's
revenues of the
It was
therefore,
in Governor
be put higher than perhaps 25 milliards.
fikl.
tobacco
monopoly
the floating
debt,
it would
Parever in
debar
the country
opinion,
impossible
to to
employ
the capital
value
of theapparently
tobacco monopoly
a censol"
from employing the capital It
value
of be
thesupposed
tobacco that
monopoly
funding
the floating
might
underin
certain
circumstances
idation of the floating debt.
debt.
perhaps
25 milliards of the floating debt could be funded in the form of tobacco se41)
S-cq
curities, but it must be remembered that the constitutional status of every holder
of the floating debt gave him a claim upon all the protection afforded by the reve-
4l
m
Princess Hotel,
Paris, August 30, 1926.
4110
PERSONAL
Dear Garrard:
Your letter of August 19th caused me a twinge of conscience, because
it is a good while since I have written you;
but I have been mighty busy, and
the longer I stay the more difficult it is for Mr. Warren and Mr. Moore to keep
up with the work.
I had a fine visit with Mr. Mellon at Elden.
discussed everything from top to bottom.
Gilbert was there, and we
Mr. Mellon was somewhat uncertain about
returning home vie Paris, but Gilbert and I both were in Paris in time to make
some judicious inquiries, and Gilbert returned with word that it seamed most desirable that he should.
I think he really intended to anyway, but he arrived thin
morning, and I expect that he will call on M. Poincare today or tomorrow and probably sec some others here, such as M. Briand, M. Berenger, and M. Moreau of the
Bank of France.
Mr. Mellon looks exceedingly well.
His rest has set him up and he is
brown and rugged-looking, although as lean as ever, if not leaner, for he has been
taking a lot of exercise, walking and rowing, and seemed to enjoy it immensely.
The situation here has fluctuated between optimism and Pessimism, the
possibility of ratification and stabilization and then its abandonment, until one
hardly could tell from day to day just what the situation would be.
The French
objections to ratification are of course a security clause, the commercialization
clause, and a feeling of hurt pride that if the mgreement is ratified it is done
under compulsion, because of the fact that they must have foreign credits, which
means American credits, in ordrr to stabilize and these they cannot get without
ratifying.
August 20, 1926.
Mr. Winston.
2.
The situation today would greatly facilitate stabilization beyond any
previous period, because the sharp decline in the franc to nearly 250 to the
pound resulted in a rise in the prices of consumer's goods, and while there has
been some decline in these prices since the franc has advanced again to about 170,
the decline has not been sufficient to again cause the dangerous disparity between the domestic and external value cf the franc which existed before these occurranceo.
Undoubtedly U. Poincare has vacillated a good deal between a desire to
proceed vigorously with the complete program of reform and the hesitation to incur
the risks of recommending ratification without a bridge over which ho and others
can retreat from their position against ratification, taken only a few months ago.
The important devolopmenta have really not been the establishment of the
"Caisse de Gestion", the increase in taxed and the new convention with the Bank of
France, zo much as in the streagthen4ec of the Bank itself and the consciousness
which is growing within and without the Bank that the key to the situation largely
rests with the control of the credit and monetary position.
cers of the Bank very much.
I like the new offi-
They have displayed a good deal of knowledge of the
problem and have a great deal of courage in dealing with it.
Pat Harrison is in Purls just now, and while I don't expect to see him,
a newspaper representative told Dwight Morrow that he thought the Senator would
make a statement - likely, he said, to the effect that France could pay much more
than was called for by the Mellon-Berenger agreement.
This would be amusing to
the Democrats, just after Secretary Baker puts out a statement that we ought to
forgive the debts.
Dwight Morrow has been here for a few days, and we have had
come very interesting discussions.
I think the whole situation can be summed up in a few words by saying
that, in my opinion, as matters now look the whole problem of stabilization could
Mr. Winston.
August 30, 1926.
be dealt with very promptly and successfully if France wero to ratify the debt
agreements, get the domestic floating debt into a more manageable and secure
position, and turn the job of stabilization over to the Bank of France.
I have had a chance for some nice talks with Mr. Mellon about Federal
Reserve problems, whidi you will hear about diroctly from him.
The delay caused
by my illness, which took about a solid month, and then the everlasting delays on
account of the French situation here, will make it impossible for me to make the
trip to Central Europe, so I an planning to sail for home on the "'Mauretania" on
the 18th of September with Dwight Morrow, although if I could get good passage on
a boat sailing a week earlier, I probably would do so.
Everything seems to be
booked up.
I am glad you do not disagree with what I cabled about the Indian Currency report.
Undoubtedly some disposition will need gradually to bo made of
the surplus silver in the reserves when they begin to accumulate gold instead,
but we must not forget that, if they succeed in maintaining the price of silver,
which is the intention of the plan, then this silver need not be exported or sold
but will gradually get into the silver hoards, just as it has in the past.
The
suggestion that 200 or 400 million ounces of silver was to be sold according to
the terms of the report is wholly unfounded, as no sum is mentioned for sale, but
simply, as I recall the language, that the silver in the reserve will need to ba
reduced.
My best to you and the others in the Treasury.
my return and anxious to talk everything over with you.
Sincerely yours,
Hon. Garrard B. 7inston,
Under Secretary of the Treasury,
WASHINGTON, D.C.
BS:1.1
An looking forward to
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 31. 1926
Place: Princess Hotel, Paris
Present:
Governor Strong
Governor Moreau
Prof. Rist
M. Quesnay
Mr. Warren
The conversation was opened by Governor Moreau, who remarked that it appeared
that they were in gmerccharmony and accord as toftrlhe essentials of the program.
The few differences of opinion that had developed were by nc means of such
a character as to prevent the two banks from rapidly coming to a nay working
understanding, once the fundamental conditions necessary to such an understanding
had been arranged by the political powers.
was
the magnitude
The question uppermost in his mind
of the credits which a stabilization scheme would necessitate.
( page 2
)
These figures, however, he named under a specLfic re-
markets of the world.
servation: at the moment they were probably out of the question, but they might
be considered if conditions became more favorable than they were today.
The
hesitation and uncertainty displayed by the Government in tackling resolutely the
problem of monetary reform had not inspired in the money markets of the world a
feeling favorable to the flotation of loans of pesuch magnitude.
M. Moreau remarked that there was some evidence that the United States was
changing its attitude on the debt, or rather that public opinion seemed to be
undergoing some change.
He referred to the recently published statement by Mr.
Baker and remarked that it seemed to be becoming an acute internal political question.
Mr. Strong made a few comments about Mr. Baker, remarking that he was not by
nature a controversialist, And-the-fact that
had entered into this controversy
might very well have been inspired by persons prominent in the Democratic party.
111
Mr. Baker was an extremely capable man who was, in fact, general counsel for the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and he (Mr. Strong) hoped that this association
would not lead people to attribute Mr. Baker's remarks to any conversations he may
have had with Mr. Strong.
attt. 11:
dC
tu
M. Moreau remarked that one of M. Poincare's greatest problems at the moment
arose out of his fear that the debt controversy would procure an acrimonious debate in Parliament.
This had indeed been his reason for postponing the debt
question until after the recess.
M. Moreau believed that M. Poincare was sin-
cerely desirous that, during the interval, public opinion should become more reas-
onable and so would make it possible to bring up the debts upon the reconvening
of the Chamber, under general conditions more favorable to a 41Waliff~fd...401Aiteeibtleiii
solution.
Mr. Strong remarked, speaking of Mr. Mellon's visit in Paris, that Mr. Mellon,
411
although he was President of the Debt Funding Commission and Secretary of the
personally desirous of visiting the Bank of France and making the acquaintance of its Governor, and if it were agreeable, he should like to have the pleasure
of introducing Mr. Mellon to the Bank of France.
Governor Strong cautioned them
that Mr. M llon was personally a man of vr¢ diffident and reticent manner, and for
that reaso1 might seem, upon their meeting, somewhat reserved and distant.
A
I
M. Moreau remarked that of course this would be the first time, so far as the
public was concerned, that Mr. Strong would have visited the Bank of France since
the incumbency of the present administration s= suggested that the following day
an
at 10:30 in the morning would be/agreeable time.
Governor Strong agreed to arrange this hour with Mr. Mellon, and assured them
that in their conversations they could discuss anything they wished with entire
carAgemposai
Citelek.N.
M. Moreau then passed on to the general situation,
remarking that at the mo-
ment the exchanges were quiet and the Treasury was in an easy position.
It of-
fered an ideal time for the Bank to discuss with the Government the changes neces-
sary in its relations with the Treasury, and offered an opportunity for the Government to undertake more satisfactory plans for dealing with the floating debt.
If the time were so employed between the adjournment and the reconvening of Parliament, it would be by no means lost.
411
M. Moreau, then referring to the conversations which had taken place
during
( page 4
)
the previous week, thanked Governor Strong for the thorough consideration
110
which he had given to their problems, and
e was especially grateful for the
detailed manner in which he had discussed the various subjects introduced in
He requested Governor Strong to pre-
the unofficial memorandum of M. Quesnay.
pare a note, or rather an aide-memoire, indicating what the latter considered to
be the indispensable conditions for monetary rehabilitation and also the condi!
tions or means which might be more flexible.
Governor Strong agreed to do this and remarked that, QtApeeeees under other
circumstances, eyefroertain conditions that seemed to be essential at the present
time might be subject to modification.
ne further added that the note or memo-
randum which he would prepare on this subject must be under two reservations:
(1) that it applied to conditions as they were at the moment, and that these
conditions might change, necessitating radical changes in the program;
(2) that in presenting these opinions, he would be doing so on his cwn ac41/
count, and that it was possible that his conclusions might meet with the dissent of
his associates in America.
Fe added that he had of course been away from the United States already a very
long time*
itihert)ie
had discussed his long absence with Mr. Mellon, who had agreed
that nothing that he could do in New York was so important to the welfare of the
United States and its people as the very program on which he had been engaged during
the past summer in Europe.
Governor Strong added that, for the purpose of freer
communication between the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of France,
he would send to the latter a code machine.
M. Moreau remarked that they were now engaged in the study of the problems connected with the concentration of a foreign exchange market in the Bank of France,
and he expressed his thanks to Governor Strong for hip acceptance of their proposal
that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York should handle their dollar account.
411
Governor Strong asked what rate of interest the Bank intended to pay upon
those devisen that were deposited with it.
r
M. Moreau replied that they would pay 1% under the rate of interest which
they actually earned on such devisen.
Governor Strong then explained the rates now in force in the New York money
market, differentiating on the rates on commercial paper and the rates on Treasury
securities, the latter being tax free.
He
explained, too, the rates of com-
mission charged upon various types of paper handled by the Reserve Bank on behalf
of their foreign depositors, and also the terms charged on the earmarking of gold.
M. Moreau remarked that of course, in order to secure these deposits of foreign exchange, it would be necessary for the Bank to offer some inducement, and
said that the inducement they had in mind was to offer such depositors exemption
from the law on the export of capital,
his eg-eeterve would require the consent
of the Government.
Governor Strong said that the total operations of the Federal Reserve Bank cf
411
New York on behalf of foreign central banks were very considerable, and suggested
that M. Moreau might very profitably make a visit to New York.
He described at
some length the vaults of the Bank, in which the earmarked gold was kept, and added
.4,4
that these important relations between the Bank and foreign institutions arousedpse
growt-delmt-le- interest and some +II:tee opposition in the United States.
For ex-
ample, he said that certain people in the United States complained that their
tt
.
(4-N4s,
t,4016
undertakings with England had cost them their own independence and that iaritim&44141444too much subject to influence of purely British considerations.
in England the same complaint was lodged against Mr. Norman:
On the other hand,
that by undertaking
these relations he had made the Bank of England subordinate to the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York.
Governor Strong then said that the following factors, in his mind, were abeam191..17 essential to monetary reconstruction in France:
(1) Independ
ce of the Bank.
there was no need :of eiaboratitnev
This subject had been thoroughly discussed and
( page 7
)
sential fuction of the Bank.
Governor Strong remarked that if the Government, with the enerrove
l44,6.14
,
funde which it 4ad received out of the foreign loans and later which it would
-.-
have to make in payments on its charges, should appear at cross purposes with the
Bank, it could very greatly hamper the effectiveness of the Bank in the exchange
market.
Governor Moreau added that he recognized the truth of this, but that one
thing that they would have to avoid would be creating new bonds between the Government and the Bank which might embarrass the action of the Bank.
M. Quesnay remarked, fcr instance, that they should not be put in a position in which they would be obliged to surrender foreign balances to the Bank with-,
out payment on the part of the Government.
(7) There must be reccgnition that the gold reserve cf the Bank belonged to
the Bank.
M. Moreau said that this question had already come up with the Treasury,
which took the position that the gold belonged, not to the Bank, but to the holders
of the notes.
M. Moreau had replied that this reasoning might be applied to those
persons who held notes that were issued at the volition cf the Bank, but it could
not apply to the holders of those notes which had been issued at the demand of the
State.
Governor Strong said that his reply had been somewhat different in detail,
-.?
for he had said that if the State would agree to repay its debt to the Bank inpld,
the Bank would be amply able to meet all its obligations on the note account in tha
-same metal.
(8) Governor Strong emphasized the danger of an increased burden of indirect
taxation.
The recent tax laws had provided for some 11 milliards of new taxation,
a.,401
much of it indirect, in such form to be passed on to the consumer, who was already
A
underpaid and who, under the stabilization crisis, mi
There was a possibility of social
unrest sufficient t
( page 8 140
office.
4
He recognized tii,1004 the need of wye sources of immediate revenue
as an emergency measure, but he tacommel.teed that the tax system should be thor410
oughly examined and revised.
The small man might suffer patiently for a while,
but no country could continue to live on a salary schedule such as now was prevalent in France, in which thousands of bread-winners for families received salaries of 600 or 800 francs a month.
He added that he sympathized very consider-
ably with the position taken in the Experts' report by Dr. Jeze.
It was true
that a country could by slow readjustment accustom itself to almost any kind of
taxation, but the process was painful and slow and might Immo-mall give rise to
social disorders or discontent sufficient to imperil the stability of the Govern!! 13A
went or its program'
A
.
(
-
He apprehended that the riot'}-ooneelueneeeof an inequit-
system of taxation in France might be as great as those out'of
out' of the floating
A
debt.
M. Moreau stated that he had had very considerable experience as a tax
collector and that he had always found that indirect taxes were much easier to
collect.
In his opinion, they were the only kind of taxes that could reach the
mass of the population, because of the numerous exemptions granted on all forms of
41A;v"A-
taxation by deputies interested in protecting certain classes of their electors.
In France direct taxes were already very considerable, and they fell almost entirely on the shoulders of a very small fraction of the population.
Governor Strong then
the principal sources of revenue,
but no one was able to produce any very satisfactory answer to this question.
Governor Strong then drew a comparison between the economic effects of
indirect taxation and those of inflation.
44e4ey caused an increase in the cost of
living, which bore upon the public without any regard to the capacity
of the various classes, and he added that he thought that most modern text writers
L.
Moreau remarked
that France
was a country without-any great number of
on the subject ofM.taxation
would support
his view.
( page 9
persons of extremely large income;
)
further, the recent changes in the indirect
taxes scarcely brought the schedules in gold up to the levels of prewar years.
He added that tax-dodging was a national vice in France and had to be taken into
account.
Governor Strong then drew some illustrations from recent experiences
Taxes had at one time been so high on certwith taxation in the United States.
px,h0(404t
,a 4e4.-1
/ (7#-1 i
6111
7'
ain brackets that altogether
t4q4by
had
run up to the neighborhood of 86% on some
very large incomes.
Last year, however, after a tax reduction, receipts were
ASP_ e,
some ,5;000,000 in excess of the estimates, and it had been the experience of the
United States that, as the rate of direct taxes had been reduced, the returns had
steadily grown.
One of the reasons for this unaaubtlidly was the fact that eva-
sion was not worth the danger that it incurred.
M. Moreau remarked that much of this reasoning had been applied by the
Experts in their report.
Governor Strong stated that there was still (1) no ta* worth mention-
trr
ing upon agricultural earnings, and (2) no effective tax on real estatl.
44,4
eoC,
M. Moreau explained the small size of taxes on reel estate aud.4awagkad
that, owing to the rent restrictions, income from rented property was very much
reduced.
For example, rents were only double what they had been in 1914, while
the charges of upkeep of property had multiplied
tires.
Altogether, the
return on capital invested in houses or apartment houses in Paris was now, in
paper francs, hardly more than it had been in gold francs before the war.
such circumstances, it was incapable of supporting very heavy taxes.
Under
He was,
however, in full agreement in regard to the desirability of applying a heavier
schedule of taxation to agriculture, but remarked that the difficulty there was
political, just as he had explained in an earlier conversation.
Governor
Strong then stated that one could hardly engage in conversation
( page 10
)
with anyone without hearing stories of tax evasion, the sums involved sometimes
being small but in the aggregate undoubtedly totalling up to engreous figures.
411
M. Moreau said there were several reasons for this, of which the greatest was the low state of efficiency in the tax administration.
This was due to
three principal causes:
(1) The personnel of the tax service had been subject to very heavy casualties during the war;
(2) The rate of paymigt was so low that worth-while men would not stay
in their positions, and there were many resignations.
Those who did not resign
were discontented and consequently shiftless;
(3) The nuslliig complexities of the laws, which made it extremely difficult even for a tax collector to know how much anyone really owed.
Prof. Rist remarked that in the Experts' report, they had called attention to the low state of efficiency in the finance department and had recommended
111
that measures be taken to retain and attract good men by increasing thealesalary
schedule, poeregardless of the general provisions of the Civil Service.
Governor Strong remarked that these underpaid Goverl LUent functionaries
whose inefficiency had just been ascribed to their low income would be severely
pinched by stabilization and the probable ensuing rise in the cost of living.
Under such circumstances, there was reason to apprehend that the servi4a would get
worse rather than better.
Referring to M. Rist's statement that the Experts had
asked for salary increases in the Treasury, he asked if there was a probability
that this increase would be granted.
M. Moreau replied somewhat vaguely that M. Poincare was reorganizing the
Ministry of Finance and possibly there would be something done in the matter.
Concluding the conversation, Governor Strong asked Mr. Warren and M.
Quesnay whether they wished to make any remarks.
;
111
suggestion; and Mr. narren said that
M. Quesnay 4d#64064 offerttio;t2'^Imm.
4k
e thought that four matters of detail were
( page 11 )
quite essential to any plan of stabilization:
(1) that the
rattj time
of stabilization should be left entirely at the
discretion of the Bank and not made subject to any governmental influence;
(2) that the plan should not be entered upon until the commercial banks were
committed to its success;
inasmuch as the provisions for the publicity of
(3) the matter of publicity;
the Caisse de Gestion recommended in the Experts' report had been omitted from the
law establishing the Caisse de Gestion;
A
1
(4) the necessity of securing adherence to the scheme of those foreign lit er-
eats whose aid was counted upon, in order to avoid any misunderstanding such as
had occurred in the case of the Belgian program.
4F-14
/1714
4
(Mk A (G.-N tiJ-Ct.t.l,
7ra. 1.
et
d 6.1
e tt
( 7,)kitt 1-0
t-fd-r)N
)2uf
1.6 ):
-
ICE
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
CONVERSATION OF AUGUST 31. 1926
411
Place:
Princess Hotel, Paris
Present: Governor Strong
Prof. Gaston Jeze, of the Faculte de Droit, University of Paris
Mr. Warren
Time: About 11 hour.
Prof. Jeze was introduced to Governor Strong through the intermediary of his
colleague, Prof. Rist, both being members of the Facultd'de Droit of the Sorbonne.
Governor Strong opened the conversation with the statement that he had noted
with prompiwinterest Prof. Jeze's reservation in regard to indirect taxation in
the Experts' report.
In the United States there was a very common 44Wwsw4A4darfts
belief that the French people did not pay taxes, but the American coming to France
soon found that one of the commonest complaints of the French people was that they
were overtaxed.
Governor Strong was embesseir desirous of reconciling these con-
ditradictory opinions and of coming to a just conclusion as to the tax burden borne
by the French public.
Prof. Jeze said that the reservation which he had entered in the Experts'
report represented a papotewasi, conviction on his part as to the
in-
equities of the present system of indirect taxation, which was virtually a tax on
consumption, but because he was a minority of one on the Committee, and because
he did not wish to impair the spirit which actuated the Committee or spoil the
report, he had entered this reservation under the form in which it appeared.
One of the ..t dangers under any proposed stabilization plan lay in the
budget.
On paper, the budget for 1927 was satisisaismaly balanced.
As a mat-
ter of fact, Prof. Jeze doubted very-mmele. whether it would be possible to compress
the expenditures of the State within the limits of the revenues which were provided under that budget.
1110
One of the p4.4440aa-reasons lay in the fact that the
great body of civil servants of the State were 6114romeiry underpaid.
As an ex-
( page 2
)
ample, he stated the pay of a Professor at the Sorbonne was between 30,000 and
410
40,000 francs a year, or roughly $1200.
tionally highly paid position.
This represented, a-atomise*, an excep-
In the lower grades, the salary was nct a living
wage, and this was rendering it more and more difficult to obtain cr retain a man
of any competence in the civil service.
For example, he had been a member of an
examination committee of applicants for one of the minor posts in the Ministry of
Marine.
Six positions were vacant, but the Committee had found it possible to fill
only 2.
Another time that he was a member of an examining board, they found that not
one single candidate of those that presented themselves was worthy of consideration
for the posts that were vacant.
The situation was particularly acute in the Min-
001,10,,r iiistry of Finance, as had been tomesamm..axiam. explained in the Experts' report.4
older Bureau chiefs had aAmiet4,-ewhirepi, found better paying positions in banks or
industrial enterprises.
The result was that the most responsible positions were
now almae4-aulix= in the hands of young men between 30 and 35, who, as soon as
111
they became measurably proficient in the work, would mildrattedty resign and seek
more lucrative positions elsewhere.
time.
This situation was bed enough at the present
Under stabilization, the plight of the salaried workers would be almost in-
supportable, and if to this condition cf underpayment were added general unemployment, the consequences could hardly fail to be 301.9. serious.
He believed that this
situation should be recognized by the property-owning classes, not merely as a matter cf justice, but as a matter of doimmemiliamer prudence in their own interest.
The
property-owning classes should recognize the dangers which lay in provoking the
great mass of underpaid salaried workers.
Governor Strong asked whether, in the opinion of Dr. Jeze, the discontent which
was saill6.466 likely to follow stabilization would be sufficient to upset a Governself soon after it
ment that was carrying through stabilization.and possibly overturn the program itProf. Jeze sa
(
page 3
)
there would be political reactions in which deputies cr candidates for the
SChamber would make very radical and menacing speeches, but once in office, he
did not believe that they would overturn any plan of stabilization.
There were
two reasons for this:
(1) That at heart, the French people themselves were Ambreft15. conservative,
(2) That there was a kind of inertia in the French Government that made suc-
ceeding Chambers and Covernmentsooerreluctant to throw over any sort of program
dattlembemes actually under way.
this.
The 1924 elections were an ampo44,fft example of
The elections were contested Arazzy.lacesly in a,-foasswief opposition to the
tax measures that had been introduced by M. Poincare immediately before.
The
deputies of the Left had been elected almost -eat upon their election promises
to reduce taxation.
Once in office, however, confronted with the responsability
of conducting the Government, they not only had not abolished any of the Poincare
taxes, but they had meimm,qty been ready to vote further taxation.
41/
In the opinion of Dr. Jeze, the great obstacle to financial reform in France
lay in the stupidity of the governing classes.
There were three outstanding ex-
amples of this:
(1) The handling of the Reparation problem.
At the time that the Treaty of
Versailles was being negotiated, he had been called into conference with the then
Minister of Finance, M. Klotz, who had talked to him of the fantastic sums which
Germany was to be called upon to pay.
The principal anxiety in the mind of M.
Klotz was not the fear that they would ask of Germany reparations impossible of
ment, but that they would set their demands too low.
pay-
In M. Klotz's mind, there was
no sum which was beyond Germany's capacity to pay, and as for the problems of trans-
fer, Prof. Jeze was lissom unable to make him recognize their existence.
This
want of realism in handling the Reparations program had persisted year by year,
leading up in the end to the occupation of the Ruhr.
411
(2) The belief which many people persisted in down to a few weeks ago and which
( page 4 )
many people still held, namely, that the problem of restoring the currency was
410
solely oals-o$
psychology. If
the people could be put in a proper frame of mind,
this belief ran, the currency would stabilize itself.
This had been the attitude
of M. Poincare himself upon his assumption of the Ministry.
t at France would be able to
(3) The third example was the
stabilize her currency without
outside assistance.
He was happy to say, how-
ever, that an increasing number of people, including M. Poincarel, had already begun
to realize that this was a fantastic idea.
Discussion of foreign credits, however,
-erf--evmrse-involved the question of the ratification of the debts.
Prof. Jeze stated his attitude on the debts in all candor.
His opinion was
that France should accept the terms of the Mellon-Berenger agreement and should make
every effort to live up to them.
However, it was his opinion that eventually; it
would be found that the sums proposed for transfer, not merely under the debt settle-
*
ments but also under the reparation program, would be medbamely beyond the capacity
of the world to maintain.
When this was clearly demonstrated, then it would be
necessary to reconsider this whole series of problems
Governor Strong said that in considering the debt questions, it was necessary
to take account of the American attitude on the debts.
Two-thirds of the popula-
tion of the United States was either foreign-born or the children of foreign-born
parents.
They had come to the United States, not merely for the purpose of bet-
tering their economic condition, but also to avoid certain of the disadvantages of
European life, particularly the liabilities of the military service and the horrors
of the war which, for more than a generation, everyone had been expecting.
This
was finally came, as everyone had predicted, but it included the entry of the United
States, which had not been generally expected.
It would have been ertiONEW possible
for the United States to keveelimitistrits effort simply to the protection of its
commerce upon the high seas.
This, bAmaux was not done.
The United States
( page 5
)
threw itself into the war, involving as it did no 444414.personal sacrifice and
an enormous expenditure in money.
It involved furthermore the abandonment of
one of the great American traditions, perhaps the one political condition of our
national life, namelyjseparation from European entanglements.
war--14.e..el---i-rrvcIveci-enstnelel--ef-fert.
-3
Ore-imilr.4441a---
One of the principal reasons why
thiLfinancial effort had not involved the United States in the same currency disasters as European countries lay in the fact that, as we entered the war some years
after its commencement, it was possible to profit by the financial mistakes of
other States.
For this reason, the Federal Reserve System had abloolwilmily refused
had cooperated in war
to lend any money directly to the Government, although
finance, which had involved the creation of an enormous floating debt.
al Reserve System had insisted that this floating debt should be
The Feder-
-(4
the market, although it had supplied the funds to the market which enabled the market to hold it.
As a result of this situation, when the time came for deflation,
it was not necessary to secure from the Government political support for a program
of amortization of a State debt to the Federal Reserve Bane
it had been possible
to undertake the necessary program of financial restoratiorillftt
securing any laws or political support.
The result had been, however, that those
persons who had suffered from the inflation had been eiwWmporer-bitter toward the
Federal Reserve System.
With the passage of time, however, it was more and more
being realized that the hardships of deflation had been abee.+mbriy necessary for financial restoration, and the attitude toward the Federal Reserve System had eswimimel.p..
changed.
In fact, it had changed so much that in a recent project of law, coming
up many years before the charter of the Federal Reserve Banks would expire, it had
been proposed to extend those charters for 50 years.
had personally not been in favor of this proposal.
Governor Strong said that he
He w ul d have preferred to
144.44
make the dharter of perpetual or indefinite duration,
that the
411 System should be subject to periodical examination by a committee
representing
( page 6
)
both the Government and the System, such a committee being authorized to make
changes necessitated by the progress of events.
111
Prof. Ieze quite agreed with this position, statirg that no bank charter
should be perpetual, because economic conditions were constantly changing and what
would be an excellent provision at one time might be egArien useless or harmful a
few years later.
Governor Strong then remarked that if the question of the Allied debts had been
shrewdly taken up immediately after the war, it might have been possible to effect
some other form of settlement than that which was now proposed.
As a matter of
fact, they were allowed to drift along for a number of years, and presently they were
seized upon by politicians seeking to make capital.
It was pambilmiavey unfortu-
nate that certain politicians in Europe had endeavored to convince their respective
countries that these debts were in some way a moral issue and that the borrowers had
some sort of moral right to 'eke cancellation.
Thja position had even been
takej:that the money was not actually owed, and that it ought not to be repaid.
The result of this was an inevitable reaction on the American mind, which was quicker-
to accept the idea that the debts were a moral question and that the moral obligation
cf repayment was the strongest feature of the question.
Governor Strong had observed
that whenever a responsible statesman came out with a candid recognition of liability
i0r4 he debt and expressed a willingness to effect a aettlanent and to do the utmost
.4244,-i,.4,,,A
to make the paymenv, sammaadad under the settlement, the debt shrank in size, both
in the debtor country and in the United States.
On the other hand, when the liabil-
ity on.41916.4mat was denied, it assumed at once an unusual magnitude in both countries.
The best thing under the circumstames was for the various debtor nations
to make their settlements and stop agitating the question.
This would give time
for everyone to cool cff and later approach the subject with a more open mind.
As a matter of fact, in the case of France, what were the alternatives?
By protracting the neg
if France was
be taken up a
( page 8
assets
n
)
stabilization
The amount
of French capital
its, it was pa
circumstances, he
guidance of a
of the Caisse de
Po
tremists.
from the market.
which were ess
Governor Str
fect the repatria
flexible and well
ever, that Prof.
the problem could
assets, which wou
,dmaiarrfacilitate
( page 7
)
the annual payments by a few million dollars, but by doing so, the French people
ran the risk of permitting their currency to fall into complete disorder and themselves to be involved in
a treestonationa3.
economic catastrophe.
Between these
In fact,
two alternatives, there could be no doubt as to which was preferable.
such a catastrophe might involve France in an agitation that her finances be put
under some sort of a supervisory committee, similar to that constructed by the
Dawes Plan, which nobody either in France or in the United States had the slightest
desire for.
Prof. Jeze said that the problems of debts and reparations were quite similar.
Europe in its post-war problems had been endangered by its politicians and saved by
its technicians.
It was a Committee of Experts which had rescued the Reparations
ir
problem from the
602.44,4411, -4 Al.,
4440,400.
It
-
was the Committee
of Experts in France which had indicated for France the only method of financial
salvation after the debacle into which the country had been plunged by its politic-
ofans.
Although financial restoration in France could not be effected without for-
eign aid, he did not believe fer-ermsbnrtfe that the Government of France should appeal
for this foreign aid until it was able to appear before the world with a sound, well
worked out program of reform.
formation.
Such a program, he believed, was in the process of
The PoincareGovernment had
ia,Pev44
notwithstanding the declarations
which had preceded its entry into office, accepted6ceixperts' report 01:,z1; except
two of its provisions.
Those two provisions were, first, the ratification of the
debts, and second, the appeal for foreign credits.
(Prof. Jeze had already indicated
that in his opinion the attitude of the Prime Minister had fundamentally changed in
recent weeks on the question of foreign credits).
Governor Strong then raised the problem of the floating debt, stating that he
believed that it presented a very serious menace to any stabilization program.
Prof.the
Jeze,
however,
inclined
to believe
under the Caisse
de Gestion,
floating
debtwas
might
have been
put outthat
of danger.
Friaao*.iertmettfertnetre-mftirrirmk...
S
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
August 31, 1926.
DOLLAR BILLS IN PARIS MARKET
Information sought for this memorandum was chiefly obtained from Mr.
Llewellyn of Morgan Harjes & Company, and Mr. Berntsen of the Bankers Trust Co.
Mr. Llewellyn said that there were very few dollar bills floating in the
Paris market.
The principal exports of France to the United States are manu-
factured textiles, such as dresses, lingerie, millinery etc.
The customers ef,i,,A
the United States are for the most part either department stores or buyers representing groups of merchandising establishments.
Principally, the exports of
France to the United States arise out of purchases in Paris by representatives of
department stores maintaining permanent offices in Paris or coming seasonally.
It is a regular business between the manufacturers and their steady clients.
For the most part, these are cash transactions, the buyer paying for his purchase
II/
by direct payment into the account of the French seller in a New York bank; the
latter draws against such an account for the sums which he wishes to return to
France.
Somewhat similar methods are followed by the buyers for the big New York department stores,
which maintain permanent offices in Paris and make direct
payments for their purchases.
In this way, no bills arise in the market and
there is no probability that the market will ever resort to bills for this kind
of transaction.
For other kinds of transactions, the market is of course under peculiar influences at the present time, owing to the unwillingness of French exporters to
repatriate
more of the proceeds of their exports than is absolutely necessary
for the continuance of their business.
Possibly over one-half and something less
than three-fourths of the French exports to the United States are financed in this
(
direct manner.
page 2
)
Of the remainder, possibly half is financed through bills of
exchange stated in francs, and the other half in dollar bills.
These dollar
bills, however, woe extremely rare andweilow very much prized by all of the
French banks, for which reason they were accorded extremely favorable rates.
They did not, however, float in the market, but arose always in connection with
the regular established accounts of particular clients.
Practically the only
industry which financed its exports to the United States with the use of dollar
bills was the walnut trade.
In a conversation with Mr. Berntsen of the Bankers Trust, the latter said
that, so far as he knew, there were no dollar bills in the Paris market.
In his
experience he had never seen such an instrument.
From these conversations, it appears that there is only an insignificant
quantity of dollar bills in the Paris market.
0
Furthermore, the character of the
market is such that what few bills there are, are only likely to find their way
into banks handling the general banking business of the exporter.
No bank which
was not prepared to engage in all forms of banking business in Paris could hope to
secure the slightest fraction of this sort of business, for which it would have to
depend solely upon its own clientele.
No market in bills, whether drawn in dol-
lars cr in francs, exists at the present time in Paris.
There has never been in Paris a market in commercial bills.
At the present
time, the entire export business of the country has organized its efforts to avoid
the repatriation of as much of its dollar and sterling balances as it can possibly
retain outside the country.
To a certain extent, there is no doubt that, with
the stabilization of the currency, these peculiar features will pass and there is
reason to expect that gradually there will develop in Paris an organized bill
market.
There is, however, no particular reason to believe that this market will
ever include any considerable amount of dollar bills.
011/
Before the war, even export
( page 3
)
bills, I understand, were usually drawn in francs, but the permanent character
of the export trade of France with the United States is such that it can be
financed with perfect facility in exactly the way in which it is being financed
now, and there is absolutely no reason to anticipate that, even after stabilization, it will change its methods into a form which would create any considerable
number of dollar bills, nor that the dollar bills which might be created under
certain circumstances would be sufficient in volume to justify the establishment
of a financial institution designed to trade in such bills, unless this institution was prepared to supplement its activities in the bill market by engaging in
every form of commercial banking.
MEMORANDUM BY R. B. WARREN
CONVERSATION OF SEPT. 1, 1926
( page 2
)
them with cattle, providing them with seed, and in general equipping them for
productive farm work.
These refugees had come from Turkish Thrace, Grecian
Thrace, Macedonia, and the Dobrudja.
The conversations with Mr. Norman, arising out of the necessities and demands imposed by the Finance Section of the League of Nations, had necessitated
the complete revision of the statutes governing the National Bank of Belgium.
knew
As Governor Strond, this Bank had been a State institution, all of its officials
being nominees of the Government.
Under the new charter, the directors would be
representative of commerce and industry, only the Governor and the Vice Governors
being appointed by the State.
Governor Strong remarked that evidently the Governor was intended to hold
the balance between the demands of commercial interest on the one side and the
Treasury on the other, but that he had remarked in the case of other banks with
similar constitutions that the tendency invariably was for the Government directcrs,
even
/thoughthW had been appointed by the State, more and more to incline towards supporting the position of the commercial,representatives on the Board, against the
insistence of the Treasury.
Governor Ivanoff said that one of the principal problems confronted by Bulgaria had been the prewar debt.
An understanding had already been concluded
with the holders of CO% of this debt, who were residents of England, Holland,
Switzerland and France.
These terms provided for payments at the rate of approx-
imately 45% gold, beginning with April of 1927 and thereafter increasing year by
year until finally the full interest and amortization in gold would be provided
for.
The remaining 20% was held throughout Central Europe and particularly in
Germany.
They had not been able to make the same terms with these holders,
particularly the Germans, because of the financial arrangements which had arisen
between Germany and Bulgaria during the war.
German banks, including the Reichs-
410
bank, had during the war extended credit to theEulge.rianGovernment in the form of
( page 3
)
loans which had been accepted into the assets of the National Bank cf Bulgaria
to the amount of about 900 million marks.
some al- billion leva had been issued.
Against these German securities,
The decline in the mark had of course
destroyed the entire value of the assets lying behind the Bulgarian
currency.
As a result of this transaction, the Bulgarian Government found itself
unable to come tc the same terms with the German holders of its prewar securities
as it had with the others.
Nevertheless, they hoped that inasmuch as this re-
mainder was only one-fifth of the total outstanding, some satisfactory arrangement
could be reached.
Such an arrangement might involve some sacrifice cf principle,
but the Bulgarian Government was anxious to get the thing cleared up.
The real object of Governor Ivanoff's visit, evidently, was tc acquaint Gov-
ernor Strong with the desire of Bulgaria that a certain fraction of the proposed
Refugee Loan should be floated in the New York market.
They had been besieged by
an infinite number of intermediaries offering to handle this transaction for them,
flisome of them representing banks with whose names they were familiar, but many of
them representing concerns about which they had no information.
They recognized
that it was extremely important that the first Bulgarian loan floated in the United
States should be a signal success, because they hoped in the not distant future to
bring out a number of other loans.
For instance, their Mortgage Bank wished to
float some securities in the United States, and the Government had projects under
consideration with
Ulen
Company for railroad construction and irrigation.
Governor Strong remarked that under such circumstances, it was of the first
importance that the underwriting firm with whom they opened connections should be
a house of extremely high standing, and a firm that would not so much be interested in making a profit on the deal as one that would be interested in securing
a permanent client whose interests they would seriously take to heart.
Governor Ivanofr said that their banking connections in New York at the pros411
ent time lay with the Guaranty Trust Company and the Irving-Columbia.
They were
( page 4 )
uncertain, however, as to what houses they should approach for the proposed
II/issue of bonds.
Governor Strong said that the Guaranty Trust Company was of course perfectly
capable of taking care of the issue, but if they wished another name, he would
suggest that of Lee, Higginscn & Company.
He reminded Governor Ivanoff that
houses of high reputation were much more difficult to approach than houses of
lesser standing, and that at first approach they might seem to be rather austere
in their terms.
However, such a connection would be worth -while, while one of
any other sort, though possibly offering a seeming advantage at the moment, would
in the long run be an undesirable connection.
Governor
emphasized
Strong
e American bankers and investment houses were interested in turning an
ny, Governor Ivanoff could rest assured that never did any ulterior polit-
e lie behind an American loan.
nor Ivanoff said that he appreciated this fact and that for this reason
ticularly interested iL forming strong banking connections in London and
k.
They were less desirous of forming connections in Berlin, because cf
cal considerations that they would involve.
He said that the Bulgarian
had no interest at heart at the moment except the peace and economic
the country, and that in this program he and the National Bank were pre-
ive the Government their hearty support and cooperation.
ced that this loan was extremely well secured.
Personally, he
In the first place, it
the surveillance of the League of Nations.
Second, the foundations of currm
thoroughly laid in their conversations with Mr. Norman; and last,
41'
evenues of the State were pledged to its interest and amortization.
He
felt justified, both from these facts and because of his personal assurupon nearly 30 years in banking, first with the State Agricultural Bank
with one of the largest commercial banks in Bulgaria, in endorsing this
conclusion, he said that he hoped that Governor Strong would give this
fic revenues from alcohol, salt, matches will be paid into the custody
of
ner;
specific revenues now exceed the service demanded.
( page 5
)
proposal to introduce a Bulgarian loan into the American market his friendly
11/
cooperation.
Governor Strong first asked to be reassured as to the question of whether
there were or were not any outstanding debt controversies between Bulgaria and
the Government of the United States arising out of possible Relief Loans.
Re-
ceiving an assurance on this head, he agreed to take the matter under his favor-
able consideration and told Governor Ivanoff that within a few days he expected to
be in London, when he would be able to discuss the matter at greater length with
Mr. Norman.
In the course of these conversations, definite suggestions might de-
velop as to the placing of such a loan in the United States, although of course
the actual terms would have to be arranged by the issuing house.
Governor Ivanoff
must remember that, since this was to be the first Bulgarian loan in the United
States, it would be necessary perhaps to offer rather attractive terms, but that
these would be worth-while, because it was important that the first Bulgarian loan
there should be an outstanding success.
The conversation then ended with an expression of gratitude on the part of M.
Ivanoff for the courtesy of Governor Strong in permitting this interview.
Princess Hotel,
Paris, September 6, 1926.
Dear Ur. Harrison:
You doute e3s have received the original of the enclosed letter
from Dr. Schacht.
I hope nothing is done about it until my return, except
to make the necessary investigations, to find out something of the business
and responsibility of Jerome B. Sullivan r Company, to get a copy of the advertisement and to ascertain, if possible, whether any subscriptions were actually received and what was done with them.
We can talk it over on my re-
turn.
I have written Schacht as per enclosed copy.
Sincerely yours,
Mr. G. L. Harrison,
c/o Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
New York.
BS:if
Benk of England,
London, September 9, 1926.
PERSONAL AND CONFIDENTIAL
Dear Mr. Jay:
I wrote you by hand to Paris, fearing that I might not have opportunity to dictate a letter, as I shall be rather busy in London, so this will be
simply an elaboration of what I wrote briefly yesterday.
The situation with the Bank of France is briefly as follows.
We have
been over all of the essential principles of a program of stabilization, without
actually devising a plan, as that would not be possible until the domestic situation has developed further, until the debts have been ratified, and until more
progress has been made in dealing with the domestic floating debt.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
that, it is
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Besides
hardly possible to consider specific terms of the plan without con-
Mr. Pierre Jay.
2.
September 9, 1926.
changes which might occur between now and the date of negotiation, that it
should be possible for the French Government to place a loan as large as 150
million dollars in the American market, and another 50 million dollars in Europe.
I stated that this could not be done at the present time, but I would expect that
it would be possible with the improved atmosphere which would develop following
ratification and in connection with the announcement of such comprehensive and
sound plan of stabilization as could be devised, based upon the principles which
we have discussed.
As to credits, I told him that I thought, between all of the banks of
issue in the gold standard countries, it should be possible to arrange credits of
150 million dollars, and if the commercial banks of France could be brought into
the arrangement in some way, so that credits might be arranged with commercial
banks in other countries, this amount might be increased to 200 millions.
I was
hardly in favor of an attempt by the French Government to place a large loan of
say 200 million dollars in gold standard countries and at the same time for the
Government to arrange a large bank credit as well.
It seemed to me there was a
duplication there which would have the effect of curtailing commitments for undera
writing/large Government loan, as so many of our banks were underwriters of these
foreign loans and might hesitate to make that commitment at the same time that
they wore extending the French Government credit.
In a general way, therefore, I am encouraged to believe as a matter of
opinion that, with all the circumstances favorable, a loan and credits in all the
markets aggregating from 300 to 400 million dollars would not be impossible.
In general, I advocated keeping the permanent long-time Government loan as small
as possible and arranging for as largo bank credits as possible, as that was more
economical.
Bank credits could possibly be arranged for one y) ar with a one year
Mr. Pierre Jay.
3.
September 9, 1926.
renewal provision, or for two years with a privilege of cancellation at the
end of one year.
It was made perfectly clear that no such engagement could be
made by the Bank of France, except in contemplation of ultimate gold payment if
Ho and
have
a strong
leaning
toward using the German railway
the credits had been used
and others
were not
cleaned
up at
maturity.
bonds now in the hands of the Reparation Commission.
I have discussed that
them,(explaining that it was none of my business, so that I could only expres
personal views,)but I thought it was a great mistake at this time.
I did no
tell them so, but this is the conclusion I have arrived at after a long discu
sion with Gilbert, and very confidentially, he has explained his views very f
to M. Poincare.
Neither the officers of the Bank nor the Finance Minister a
with either Gilbert or me at the present time, but I am satisfied they will b
the time for stabilization arrives.
Now as to Ital
,
the situation has taken a sudden turn.
Volpi and
Stringher discussed with me various features of a plan of stabilization, and
phasized the need for a further study than they had yot made before they were
ready to take the final step, and also cautioned them on the peril of underta
a program until the French had dealt with their situation.
This they fully
preciated, but in the meantime they had gone ahead with certain preliminary s
which havabeen publinhed in the paper and which impressed me as being in the
tion of good progress.
he needed to see me.
Just before I left Paris, Mr. FUnrai telegraphed me t
He came to Paris from Northern Italy for the purpose,
there made clear that Volpi was getting ready to go ahead with the program an
was anxious to know whether I would be in Europe and able to discuss it again
He would not admit that he had been sent by Volpi, but I am satisfied that ho
was.
Mr. Mellon and I talked it over quite fully, and he was disposed to
ri7Mr. Pierre Jay.
September 9, 1926.
recommend that I stay on, at least until after he had returned home, sized up
the situation and was able to cable me as to the wisdom of remaining on for a
further period, so as to continue talks with the Italians.
But the cable from
have
the Bank which you/read le(' me to go ahead with my plane to return home on the
lath, and I shall do so unless something important and unexpected develops between now and then.
So far as I can gather, the Italians and French are noL at odds in
their views on this subject.
In general, Governor Moreau's view is that it would
be helpful to France to have Italy and Belgium put through a plan, provided it was
a success in each instance.
all around.
An attempt at a plan which failed would be injurious
On the other hand, he saw no immediate chance for a plan of stabili-
zation in France and therefore recognized
of the other
countries resulting from a possible further break in French exchange was considerable.
My own feeling is that plans of stabilization undertaken by Belgium and
Italy first would require much larger credits and more underwriting, so to speak,
than if France put through a program first, as later, when France undertook a program of stabilization, their own character and temperament would lead them to make
just as heavy demands for credit as though Italy and Belgium had not stabilized.
Therefore, if economy in the magnitude of commitments is to be arranged, it should
result from a French arrangement first and the others later.
One disturbing thing in Italy is that there appears to be no evidence
or intention so far to make the Bank of Italy as completely independent of Treasury control as I would like to pee it.
They may set up a facade appearing like
independence, but really the domination of the Finance Minister would remain unchanged.
This needs further examination.
If you discuss these matters with Volpi and Stringher, you will find
Mr. Pierre Jay.
5.
September 9, 1926.
that they have magnificent ideas of the amount of credit required, oven going so
far as to suggest another Government loan.
That I believe to be a mistake.
They have pretty large resources now, and What they need is probably a Government
one or two year credit of impressive amount and then a central bank credit.
In
all three countries, the support and cooperation of private bankers is so important
that I would like to see them in each instance brought into some consortium and
committed to some program in a definite way, so that they would themselves lose
money in case the program failed.
Now, replying to your letter of August 27th, Which I was delighted to
have.
First, as to the In di
ment ourselves, but thought that possibly
I had no idea of a public stateor someone in the Treasury would
be able to make use of a careful analysis of the report prepared by Sprague.
I
think the Bank should keep out of it.
I never heard of Faller and presume he is an exeloiter of some kind.
Your (3):
I an glad the Board is not going to undertake the examination
of State banks, but it is of academic interest to us, as I understand our examinations by the State Departments are all satisfactory to you.
If the failure in
Georgia and Florida was the result of some carelessness by the Atlanta Reserve Bank,
it would justify the Board possibly in some action, but as none of them were member
banks, I do not eee why there is any excitement about it.
The Board seems to over-
look that for years they made no examination of the Edge Law banks, as the law contemplates.
(4) I will be on hand for the Conference in November, and my notion is to
lay the foundation for any foreign transactions that may grow out of the plans now
under way in &rope.
That should be the principal business of the meeting, and I
Mr. Pierre Jay.
940
September 9, 1926.
have made sure that we can get Mr. Mellon's support.
(5) After careful inquiry in regard to Carroll, I have made up my mind
to see him in Washington when I go there, and of course I will have a talk with
(Mason)
Julian Mason, but I am surprised to learn that he/has gone with the"Evening Post"
(6) It is interesting to note that when rates stiffen up in New York,
the Now York City participation in the Stock Exchange loan account goes down and
lending by others goes up.
There is not rich that we can do about it, except
deal collectively with credit as a whole, and forget that the Stock Exchange is a
special subject of excitement.
I hope you have a bully trip, and suspect that you cannot help but become involved in the discussions about stabilization.
It is just as moll to get
another direct line on the situation while we have the opportunity.
Please give my best to Mrs. Jay, and the same to you.
Sincerely yours,
Mr. Pierre Jc.y,
c/o Morgan, Marjo° & Company,
14, Place Vendome,
PARIS.
MEETING AT BANK OF ENGLAND - Sept. 14, 1926 at 11:15 a.m.
Purpose:
To consider Belgian matters.
Present:
Messrs. Norman, of the Bank of England
Ter Meulen, of Hope & Company
Du Bois, of the Swiss Banking Corporation
Morrow, of J. P. Morgan & Co.
Whigham, of Morgan Grenfell & Co.
Peacock and
Arthur Villiers of Baring Brothers
Brown, of the Westminster Bank
Strong, of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Osborne, of the Bank of England
Before I joined the meeting, Governor Norman outlined the present situation
of the negotiations with Belgium, which I did not hear but which he stated to me
covered the situation generally without more than a passing reference to the subject of the bank of issue.
Ter Meulen, who is most conservative anyway, then expressed some doubt about
financing a bond issue, because of the way in which Francqui had handled the mil-
e
road preferred stock.
Two hundred millions had been sold to Nederlandsche Handel maat s chappy
they being close competitors of Hope & Company.
The sale was made without consult-
ing Ter Meulen at all, notwithstanding that Hope & Company had been the Belgian
bankers in Holland for years and that his firm had stood by them through recent
difficulties.
He thought Francqui had recently disclosed some characteristics
which he did not like and which shook his confidence in him.
So far as he could
gather from a telegram received yesterday, the offering in Holland had been unsuccessful, the market understanding that only 50 million francs out of the 200 millions had been subscribed.
He felt that when some 4 billion francs of the pre-
ferred stock was delivered to the holders of Bons de la Defense Nationale in completing the consolidation transaction some time in December, there would be very
large offerings of them and that their price might decline even as low as 94 or
below and not only affect the price of the stock sold in Holland and Switzerland
4110
but make it difficult to successfully place a straight Government loan.
He
( page 2
)
thought the railroad preferred stock with a bf dividend guaranteed by the Government was a somewhat better security than a straight Government obligation
anyway.
His first attitude was rather gloomy.
Du Bois of the Swiss Banking Corporation spoke quite differently.
He said
that the 200 million francs of railroad preferred stock had been successfully
placed in Switzerland;
in fact, they had sold 230 million francs, and the money
was all on deposit there to the credit of the Belgian Government or the National
Bank for its account.
He thought the railroad shares were good and was hopeful
as to their future market value.
He distinguished between the stock issued on
the consolidation and that which was sold through the bankers in Switzerland and
Holland, as the latter was
list -A and the former was not.
Du Bois said that he would join in handling a loan for the Belgian Government and a credit, but he agreed that it would be better, as had been suggested to
him, to reduce the amount of the loan and consequently the fixed external charges
411
of the Belgian Government, and make up the difference by a banking credit to the
Belgian Government.
His only regret about the railroad transaction was that the
actual properties of the railroad company were not transferred to the public corporation, instead of transferring their use under a lease for 75 years.
thought the former would be a better plan.
He
He said very positively that he be-
lieved Belgium would be strong enough with this transaction arranged to stand up
in the face o
a
collapse of the French franc, and that if they did not put
through a stabilization plan now and France should have a collapse, the opportunity to stabilize would be lost for a long time.
He said there werelarge amounts
of Belgian expatriated funds ready to return immediately that stabilization became effective.
He wound up by stating that he had no doubt that when matters
had progressed and Ter Meulen had satisfied himself of his doubts he would be
glad to go along with Hope & Co. to handle the business, to which Ter Meulen did
41/
not dissent, although he laughed.
( page 3
)
There was then some general discussion in regard to the renewal of the
existing credit, of which $15,000,000 was still unliquidated and whiel falls
due the end of September.
It was generally understood that those present who
were interested would renew for 3 months with a commission of
%.
instead of
The last commission of t 5 was made so small because the previous one
was regarded as too heavy.
Governor Norman and M. Du Bois then discussed at some length the question
of the farm of the loan and the credit, and the amount, and they both agreed and
the others seemed to assent, that it was preferable to keep the Government loan
as small as would be justified considering the amount of actual reserves required
by the National Bank.
The indication was that the reserve should be approaching
or in the neighborhood of 50g,which would mean substantially 70 millions cash
from the loan that would be a definite completed transaction.
The balance of the
amount, whatever was finally decided, would be in the form of a banking credit to
the uovernment running for a short period, which would be used in the event of
emergency but which would not involve a long permanent external fixed charge on
the Treasury.
They seemed to think that the bonds would be improved marketwise
if the bondholders were given the right to convert the bonds into the preferred
stock of the railway company.
It would not hurt the bonds and might give them
some speculative value, and it would not appear to
the Belgian people as collat-
eral security.
Mr. Morrow stated that his firm would be much embarrassed by any discussion
of collateral or security for the new Government lcan, and he would prefer not to
consider it.
Governor Norman stated that it was his understanding from the London bankers
with whom he had been in touch that they would not be willing to place a Govern-
nd arrange Government credits unless at the same time the banks of
is-
rrange a credit for the National Bank of Belgium, as they realized the
( page 4
)
Without expanding this subject, he said that he
importance of this support.
and others with whom he had discussed the matter felt that Francqui's plan of
an intermediate period of "de facto" stabilization and the arrangement of a
Bank credit later when he was ready to undertake "de jure" stabilization, was
not satisfactory;
that once the loans and credits were arranged, the issue
made and the plan completed and announced,"de jure" stabilization on the plan
and at the rate agreed should become effective at once; and he then raised the
question as to what should be said to Francqui, where he should be seen, and
when it could be arranged.
There was considerable discussion of the possibility of disclosure of the
meeting in case anyone went to Belgium, and even greater possibility in case
Francqui came to London.
That subject was thoroughly threshed out and it was
finally arranged that Messrs. Per Meulen and Du Bois would meet Mr. Dean Jay
in Paris Thursday morning for breakfast, that Francqui should be invited to be
410
in Paris Thursday morning for a meeting and the position of the bankers made
clear to him.
The question was raised as to what he should be told, and Mr.
Peacock suggested that there were 3 things to say to him:
(1) That there would be no loans or credits arranged by the bankers for the
purpose of stabilization unless the central banks were satisfied to extend a
credit also to the National Bank;
(2) That the amount of the long-time loan should be kept as small as possible to meet the requirements of the National Bank for reserve,and that any addi-
tional amount should be in the form of credits to the Government for a period so
as to avoid heavy fareign debt service;
(3) That "de jure" stabilization should take place at once that the plan
was worked out and effective.
The total amount of the loan and credit by the bankers was not discussed
411
except by implication from the fact that Francqui had asked for 100 million.
( page 5
)
It was suggested that not less than 70 millions cash would give the Bank with
its present resources a 507 reserve against its notes.
Someone raised the ques-
tion as to why a 505 reserve was necessary, whereupon M. Du Bois stated again
that there were very large amounts of Belgian balances in foreign countries ready
to return the minute stabilization was accomplished.
Mr. Peacock, Mr. Morrow
and others raised the question as to whether this would not force an inflation
upon Belgium.
I pointed out that for every t28,000,000 of gold or valuta re-
turning to Belgium there would almost certainly be a ccrresponding increase in
the note issue of the National Bank of a billion francs, unless the Bank were
capable of otherwise contracting the note issue.
Governor Norman pointed out
to Ter Meulen that this was exactly what had happened in every country where they
had prcceeded with a plan of stabilization under the auspices of the League of
Nations, which Ter Meulen admitted.
There was quite a bit of discussion of policy and management after the plan
was made effective.
return of funds;
Du Bois stated that he was thinking a good deal about this
he was satisfied that unless they would have an actual "de
jure " stabilization, ho did not want to handle the loan, but if they did, he was
ccnfident that it would weather any storm caused by difficulties in France.
There was some discussion as tc the reasons for the intimate relation in the
movements of the French and Belgian francs.
Francqui explained it to Ter Meulen
as being caused by the fact that al]. the Belgian press was dominated by the French
press and when anything went wrong in France, Belgium was flooded with bad news.
I repeated the explanation given to me by Bachmann at the Swiss National Bank as
being partly responsible.
Down tc this point, I made no statement whatever of the attitude of the Federal Reserve Bank, but just at the conclusion of the meeting made, in substance,
the following statement:'
M. Francqui had asked us for no credit as yet, although we had learned through
( page 6 )
other channels that he had mentioned the possibility of it at a later date.
At this meeting it had developed that the bankers would require as a "sine qua
non" of any loan operation that a credit should be extended to the National Bank
by other banks of issue, in order that they might gain the moral support thereby
afforded and assurance as to the direction, management, policy, continuity and
independence of the National Bank.
My own position was briefly as follows:
The Federal Reserve Bank at the time of the earlier effort at stabilization
had taken a sympathetic attitude and in fact had at that time undertaken, if called
upon, to furnish 115,000,000 or thereabouts.
Since then changes had taken place
in the Belgian situation which made this a more favorable opportunity for stabilization than was the case six months or more ago.
If the transactions discussed
by the bankers were for the purpose of enabling the National Bank to stabilize the
currency at a new value and to redeem it at once or ultimately in gold, obviously
any such program required for its successful execution a very skillful management
of the credit and monetary position in Belgium, without interference from the Government if it was to be successful.
The entrusting of such a program to changing
Finance Ministers would, in my opinion, be perillous.
If the National Bank were
to be entrusted with the program and it was a "sine qua non" that we should extend
credits to the National Bank before loans could be made, I would, before willing to
recommend such credits, wish to know about the condition of the Bank, what M.
Francqui proposed in the way of reorganization, what effect the plan of stabiliza-
tion would have upon the statement and affairs of the Bank, and what he contemplated
in the matter of management and direction.
Therefore, I was unable without more
information and without consultation to make any statement
as to what we would do.
We had originally been sympathetic and in fact had
endeavored to assist in the
plan of stabilization to Belgium, and I felt it
was safe to assume that my associates at home had had no change of mind in that
respect, but that we would only be
willing to consider the matter this time
upon a thoroughly sound basis.
( page 7
)
They all seemed to agree that this was essential, and it was in fact
the object of the particular statement that they were proposing to make to
M. Francqui.
There were repeated statements throuelout the meeting raising doubt as to
the possible inflation involved in his proposal for a further issue of a billion
francs of currency.
They all had it in mind, but none of them seemed to have
any suggestions or solution of the problem to offer.
They were merely aware of
the fact that Francqui had repeatedly stated that Belgium did not have an adequate supply of currency now.
The impression I gained from the meeting is that
they are all ready to go ahead with the program, that they none of them feel very
intimately acquainted with the problems of central banking credit manlgement,
that they are most anxious that that matter should be dealt with by people in
whom they have confidence, and as soon as they feel that it is so to be dealt
4
with, they are pretty confident of a successful operation.
@FedFRASER