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R-762 BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Statement for the Press For release in morning papers, Wednesday, January 8, 191+1« The following statement of industrial production in December and the year 191+0 will appear in the January issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin, Estimates now available for December indicate a figure of about 136 for the Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial production as compared with 133 i% November and 129 in October. Actual volume of output, which usually declines in November and December, showed little change during this period and was about 7 per cent greater than in the peak period at the end of the previous year. In December the seasonally adjusted index of durable manufactures apparently showed a rise of about 5 points to 160 per cent of the 1935-1939 average and nondurable manufactures rose 2 points to 122, while minerals remained unchanged at 118. For the year 1940 as a whole the Board's index averaged 122 as compared with 108 in 1939, 113 in 1937, and 110 in I929. The rise over 1939 was most marked in output of durable manufactures but, as the table indicates, nondurable manufactures and minerals also increased materially. The increase over 1929 for the year I9I+O was almost entirely in nondurable manufactures and in minerals, but by December I9I+O production of durable manufactures was substantially above the high point reached in the summer of 1929. As has been indicated elsewhere, particularly in the Federal Reserve Bulletin for September I9I+O, the index of industrial production should not be taken as a single adequate measure of the economic well-being of the nation. Especially over long periods considerable allowance needs to be made, not only for changes in the nature and quality of industrial products, but also for many other developments, including changes in other types of production, in foreign trade, in the size and composition of the population, and in the division of income. Industrial Production (1935-39 average » 100) Year IndusDurNontrial Manudurable able Minproduc- factures manuerals manution factures factures 1929 110 110 133 93 107 1932 1933 58 69 68 57 41 70 79 66 76 103 113 88 108 122 104 113 87 108 123 108 122 78 108 135 100 106 95 108 113 99 112 97 106 117 1936 1937 1938 1939 19U0* 5b *A11 1940 figures are preliminary estimates. Preliminary annual estimates for the various group indexes are shown in the table on the following page. The largest increases for the year, as compared with 1939* were in the metals, machinery, and transportation equipment groups of industries. Production was larger than for any previous year in most groups, the principal exceptions being lumber, leather, and alcoholic beverages. A I 3 5 Industrial Production (1935-39 average = 100) Year Minerals Nondurable manufactures Durable manufactures NonStone, ManPrint- PetroTrans- fer- Li umclay, Tex- Leath- ufac- A1 co— To- Paper ing leum ; Iron Ma- porta- rous ber and tiles er and tured holic bacco and and and Chemand chin- tion metals and glass and prod- food bever- prod- prodpub- coal icals steel ery equip- and prod- prod- prod- ucts prod- ages ucts ucts 1 ish- prodment prod- ucts ucts ucts ucts ing ucts ucts 1929 135 1932 1933 33 55 1936 : 114 123 1937 68 1938 114 1939 1914.0* 130 k3 50 105 126 82 IO4 135 13k 136 li+6 110 38 1+8 52 60 51 63 51 111 104 121+ 125 80 70 | 100 111+ 145 105 113 90 106 116 103 11!+ 92 112+ 120 13k 5b •All I9I4O figures are preliminary estimates. Rubber prod- Fuels MstaLs ucts i 9k 95 101 - 71 88 76 88 79 83 - 104 ' 103 98 109 102 106 108 103 85 93 | 101 1 96 112 108 10U 98 101 113 95 1 1 5 ! 96 85 10l+ 96 89 79 80 65 76 74 75 69 68 76 99 103 102 106 109 98 107 95 lli+ 122 99 109 96 106 110 97 108 100 110 116 lh 99 112 96 I0Z4115 100 6k 103 13k 77 72 80 35 50 107 10l+ 83 113 118 99 109 99 105 lll+ 102 127 86 113 133
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