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x-1691 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD 784 STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS. TO be released in Sunday morfcamg papers, October 5. 1919* During the month of gepteoiber labor unrest has become the most prominent factor in the business situation* prevailing unrest found expression i n various forms, including demands f o r improved working conditions, increased wages, and l o c a l s t r i p s , and found i t s culmination i n the s t r i k e i n the s t e e l industry* % spite of the resulting uncertainty injected into the business situation, the n customary autumnal swell in the volume of business i s noted. The high r e t a i l prices prevailing do not appear as yet to have a noticeable e f f e c t in checking consumption, aid the demand f o r higher grade products continues, while the o f f i c i a l wholesale p r i c e index number shows a f u r t h e r r i s e from 219 i # J u l y t o 222 in August, some readjustments in wholesale prices have taken place during the present month, involving price reductions in several leading foodstuffs and in various cotton t e x t i l e s , hides, and other lines in which advances had hithertc oeen most ^arke&, a s p i r i t of conservatism, however, manifests i t s e l f in various future trades and greater attention i s paid t o the probable/trend of p r i c e s , % agriculture the exceptional promise of the spring has not been f u l f i l l e d , n in particular the winter wheat crop has been considerably below expectations. & This, however, i s p a r t l y made up by the larger yield and harvest of corn. T ® o f f i c i a l forecast f o r cotton i s less favorable than last month, indicating an unusually l a t e crop. The credit demand for crop-moving purposes has been less heavy than was anticipated in many quarters and was e a s i l y met by the local banks with the assistance of the f e a e r a l Reserve Banns, the l a t t e r reporting substantial increases during the month of discounts secured by commercial paper and corresponding increases in their note circulation* conditions in the tjew fork m o n e y market have became e a s i e r , but no great increase i n the volume " 2 " X-lb91 ^85 of speculation i s noted'; For the present the labor d i f f i c u l t y overshadows in Importance a l l other factors in the business situation, but a feeling of confi*dence generally prevails that a satisfactory solution of the present troubles will be found. Reports received from the several Federal Reserve Agents as of September 20 indicated l i t t l e change in the business situation from the favorable conditions prevailing during the previous months. Although the labor situation was generally remarked as the principal factor in rendering conditions somewhat unsettled, the feeling was expressed in a number of d i s t r i c t s that there was "a growing realization on the part of the workmen that their i n t e r e s t s are bound up with the i n t e r e s t s of the community as a whole and that increased efficiency r e s u l t i n g in greater productivity" i s imperative. In d i s t r i c t No. 1 i t was stated that "business on the whole continues very active, although manufacturers are cautious in buying raw material ahead of immediate demands, while r e t a i l purchasing a c t i v i t y continues apparently unabated™. In d i s t r i c t No* 2 financial conditions are good, the readjustment of prices i s progressing, declines in "certain products at the core of the cost of living** being noted, and the outlook i s generally favorable, In d i s t r i c t No. 3 "general business continues to show a high degree of activity and a l l the outward marks of prosperity, B In d i s t r i c t No. 4 general business, both wholesale and r e t a i l , continues active. Reports from a l l sections of d i s t r i c t No. 5 contain "optimistic notes of general business conditions, the few unfavorable comments heard being confined to high l i v i n g costs, extravagant expenditures for luxuries and nonessentials, and the shortage of farm labor." In d i s t r i c t No. 6 i t i s stated that "activity in a l l l i n e s of business has continued to exceed in volume a c t i v i t y for the same period of any previous year-** In d i s t r i c t No. 7 there continues, alike among a l l classes, a rather marked disposition to "capitalize" present price conditions, in p a r t i c u l a r to attempt to make the price situation the basis of additional p r o f i t , although "business"is generally reported as very good." X-lb91 786 $TOto d i s t r i c t NO. 8 i t i s reported that "& tendency t o await developments before making larger commitments f o r the future has been in evidence and the expansive impetus of the early summer months has been checked in a measure by a growing conservatism." while the e f f e c t has been to retard i somewhat the growth of commerce and industry in the d i s t r i c t , business continues active, % d i s t r i c t $o« 9 & f a i r crop of small grains i s comn pensated by the very satisfactory situation with respect to corn and hay, and general business i s very good- conditions in d i s t r i c t jjo. 10 have become somewhat more s e t t l e d , "the volume of trade i s at i t s highest peak of the year," and the farmer "has found 1919 a f a r better year then the average", both as to size of crops and prices received. % d i s t r i c t n 11 i t is stated that "renewed a c t i v i t y i s noted in many lines as the f a l l season opens,n and crops other than cotton are in good condition, although "an atmosphere of conservatism i s rather noticeable in business on account of the uncertainties of the f u t u r e . " District no, 12 states that "business conditions have been characterized by a c t i v i t y in manufacturing and increasing a c t i v i t y in nearly every line of wholesale and r e t a i l trade," The labor problem has become the paramount issue during the present- month, the question of the cost of living receding from i t s former position of prime i&portance^ Reports indicate a desire of the workers to secure a larger share in tne returns of industry, demands f o r increased wages being accompanied by demands for shorter hours• At the same time, however, public opinion appears to be awakening to the reaction which increased wages and decreased output may have upon commodity p r i c e s , and the vicious c i r c l e which may r e s u l t , production has been hindered in various lines . in which the demand i s greatest, both by a shortening of hours, by decreased" efficiency, and by aisi&clinat^on in certain cases t o work more than part time. The labor unrest, exhibited frequently X-lb91 ' heretofore "by new demands as to wages, hours, and conditions of employment and by s t r i k e s , actual or threatened, in various industries, as well as by the agitation against high p r i c e s , has now found expression on a widespread scale in the present stride in the steel industry, ana has forced i t s e l f sharply upon the public- a t t e n t i o n . %t had been generally hoped in the industry that intervention by the president would result in a postponement of the c a l l f o r the strike pending the conference of labor and capital called by the president to meet in Washington on October b, at which the question could be thorough!/ discussed* New wage demands and strikes are frequent in certain d i s t r i c t s , prominent among those noted during the present month having also been the M strike* of the Boston police and the formulation of new wage demands by the bituminous coal miners- although the railroad shopmen have returned t o work, the transportation situation continues to occupy a prominent position in public discussion, both in consequence of the consideration of plans f o r the future operation of the railways and because of the car shortage which is hampering business activity in various lines. Commodity prices reached new high levels during the month of ^ugust, though since the middle of the month a downward movement appears to have set in a f f e c t ing the prices of some leading staples. ?he general index number of the Bureau of Labor s t a t i s t i c s for that month stands at 222, as compared with 219 for the month of July* The increase in prices, while again general, was greater for the groups of consumers! and producerst goods than for the group of raw materials, the index number f o r consumers« goods increasing from 2)0 to 241, for producers t goods from 205 to 215, and f o r raw materials from 214 to 21?, the corresponding percentages of increase being 4.8,4.7, and 1.5- Among the subgroups included in the group, of raw materials, the index number for f o r e s t products shows a considerable increase, from Ibb to 193> the numbers f o r animal products and f o r ~ x-1691 7 8 8 mineral products lesser increases* from 233 t o 236 and from 177 t o i?8, respectively, while the index number f o r the subgroup of farm products alone shows a decrease, from 261 t o 251* The prices of a considerable number of commodities on September 1 were lower them on August 1. Since the opening of the present month, p r i c e declines in c e r t a i n f o o d s t u f f s , as well as in raw cotton and various cotton t e x t i l e s and in hides, have continued. The more conservative f e e l i n g noted l a s t month s t i l l prevails and moderation in naming p r i c e s i s ucged i n c e r t a i n lines# rather than the policy of exacting a l l that •the t r a f f i c w i l l bear." Retailers % sales during the present f a l l season have been closely watched in some lines in view of the p o s s i b i l i t y of a curtailment of consumption in consequence of the high prices demanded. i n agriculture, the r e l a t i v e l y unsatisfactory s i t u a t i o n prevailing with respect to wheat as compared with e a r l i e r prospects i s compensated by the favorable situation with respect to corn, the bulk of which w i l l soon be past danger of damage, and to hay, the yield of which i s much above the average, com i s of good quality, but i n the case of spring wheat the grain i s l i g h t . % n consequence of deficiency of r a i n f a l l i n d i s t r i c t no. 9, a l l small grains are showing a poor return, with many sections in North Dakota, south Dakota, and Montana reporting »a complete failure»# Although good returns have been received by farmers i n d i s t r i c t no* 10, i t i s stated that indications point to a decrease in the wheat acreage sown t h i s f a l l , due p a r t l y to unfavorable s o i l conditions f o r f a l l plowing and seeding and p a r t l y to "a desire to return to the pre-war plan of d i v e r s i f i e d farming»" D i s t r i c t no. 11 *made the heaviest and best corn crop ever raised,» and "the grain crop was also large beyond precedent. » The harvesting of grain, except com and r i c e , i s now p r a c t i c a l l y completed i n d i s t r i c t no. 12 Deficiency of r a i n f a l l has damaged tobacco in Kentucky aad Ohio, and "the outlook i s rather discouraging,*while i n the carolinae the crop ranges "from - 6- x-l»91 789 e x t r a good in the i n t e r i o r to very poor in extreme eastern counties," The condition of cotton showed a f u r t h e r decline to 61.4- on August 25, and the lateness of the crop i s r e f l e c t e d in the small amount ginned to d a t e , additional injury has been done i n Georgia and Alabama by constant rains and by the b o l l weevil and heavy damage by insects i s reported in Texas, although improvei#nt i s noted in the c a r ° l i n a s . prices have been i r r e g u l a r , with a downward tendency* %t i s reported from %ansas City and Minneapolis that f l o u r mills are operating a t almost f u l l c a p a c i t y . There i s good demand f o r f l o u r , although trade reports indicate that eastern buying has lagged somewhat, and the demand class for f i r s t has been especially l i g h t . Flour production during august, as reported by the united s t a t e s grain corporation, was 12,042,000 b a r r e l s , as compared with 8,339*000 barrels during July, prices of grain and f l o w have shown a downward tendency# With the increase in receipts of raw sugar, meltings have again increased, although the scarcity previously remarked continues and the s i t u a t i o n in t h i s industry i s reported to r e f l e c t tne uncertainty as to the conditions under which the new crop w i l l be marketed* R e c e i p t s of c a t t l e a t 15 primary markets i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y , from 1,527,861 head during J u l y t o 1,541,133 head d u r i n g a u g u s t , a s compared w i t h 1,586,553 head d u r i n g August, 1918, the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g 152,153» a m 158. Receipts of hogs show a continued f a l l i n g o f f , from 2 ,411,539 head during July to 1*595,759 head during august, as compared with 1,970,08b head during August 1918, the respective index numbers being 110, 73» and. 90- Receipts of sheep again show a considerable increase, being 2,220,229 head during August, corresponding to an index number of 162, as compared with 1,538,767 head during July, corresponding to an index number of 114, and 1,424,677 head during August, 1918, corresponding to an indent number of 104, prices of live stock, i n p a r t i c u l a r Digitized forhogs, showed a FRASER downward tendency, gogs at Kansas c i t y on September 13 reached -1a low f i g u r e of $16.23 p e r hundredweight, as compared w i t h $19«50 h^/fr at the close of August. The o u t s t a n d i n g f e a t u r e i n the i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y h a s , of course* been t h e labor s i t u a t i o n , yp to the a c t u a l day of t h e s t r i K e a f e e l i n g p r e v a i l e d t h a t i t would be avoided, and the i n d u s t r y as a v,'hole, as w e l l as consumers,viewed the s i t u a t i o n calmly, while t h e r e was a decrease i n new buying d u r i n g t h e f i r s t h a l f of t h e month as c o n d i t i o n s becau.e u n s e t t l e d , the f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n which had been noted f o r the month of august c o n t i n u e d , p i g - i r o n output i n c r e a s e d from ?. ,423,541 tons during J u l y t o 2,743,388 t o n s d u r i n g August, the r e s p e c t i v e index ragabere being 105 and. 118, s t e e l - i n g o t p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d from 2,508,176 tons d u r i n g J u l y , c o r r e s ponding t o an index number of 104, t o 2,746,081 t e n s during August, c o r r e s ponding t o an index number of 114, while the u n f i l l e d orders of the united S t a t e s s t e e l Corporation a t t h e c l o s e of August were b,109,103 t o n s , as compared with 5,578*b6l tons a t the c l o s e of J u l y , the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g l l o and 106, although i t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t new o r d e r s booted are' running below those of a month ago* j t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t the demand f o r p i g i r o n d u r i n g the month has not been a c t i v e , with t h e chief i n t e r e s t i n foundry i r o n , but stocks a r e s t a t e d to have decreased d u r i n g August f o r t h e third, month in s u c c e s s i o n , and merchant f u r n a c e s a r e w e l l s o l d over the remainder of t h e y e a r , a lessened, demand, but with l i t t l e output a v a i l a b l e f o r d e l i v e r y b e f o r e t h e f i r s t of t h e y e a r , i s r e p o r t e d i n t h e l i n e s which have h i t h e r t o been most a c t i v e , such as s t e e l b a r s , s h e e t s , w i r e , t i n p l a t e , and lap-weld p i p e . Regular consumers i n many cases a r e s t a t e d t o be w e l l covered i n t h e i r r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e remainder of t h e y e a r , while t h e r e has been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e i n q u i r y a s y e t f o r t h e next year ts d e l i v e r y , and m a n u f a c t u r e r s were n o t d i s p o s e d t o quote thereon* c e r t a i n of the h e a v i e r l i n e s , such a s r a i l s and shapes and p l a t e s , c o n t i n u e t o l a g , t h e * 791 - s l a t t e r showing weakness i n p r i c e , - x-it>9i p r i c e d e c l i n e s have been noted i n the old- m a t e r i a l markets s i n c e the middle of August. a l t h o u g h the volutr.e of domestic b u s i n e s s booked has diminished somewhat the i n t e r e s t i n the export f i e l d , i t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e ..-expert agency of t h e independent producers s h o r t l y a f t e r the middle of t h e month r e q u e s t e d from t h e i r p r i n c i p a l s an i n c r e a s e i n the tonnage a l l o t t e d t o f o r e i g n business from the p r e s e n t f i g u r e of 10 p e r c e n t . continues of o u t p u t . The machine-tool i n d u s t r y active. varying The s t r i a e c a l l e d f o r September 22nd had e f f e c t s i n the several districts, Reports i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s t r i k e was most widespread i n t h e Colorado, Cleveland and Chicago D i s t r i c t s , a p r a c t i c a l f a i l u r e i n the Birmingham D i s t r i c t , while c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r r u p t i o n t o p r o d u c t i o n was noted in the P i t t s b u r g h District. The f a c t t h a t f o r many of t h e independent producers agreements n e g o t i a t e d a n n u a l l y were i n e f f e c t , a i a e d m a t e r i a l l y i n maintaining t h e output of l i n e s f o r which the demand had been g r e a t e s t , such as s h e e t s , and t i n p l a t e . The p r o d u c t i o n of t u b u l a r goods was c o n s i d e r a b l y c u r t a i l e d , while the manufacture of wire p r o d u c t s was s t a t e d t o have been w e l l maintained a t a l l p o i n t s except' Cleveland, The g r e a t e s t e f f e c t of the s t r i k e i s r e p o r t e d t o be on the h e a v i e r p r o d u c t s , such a s b a r s , s t r u c t u r a l shapes, p l a t e s and r a i l s , f o r which demand has h i t h e r t o been l i g h t e s t . The claim i s made t h a t the s t r i k e r s a r e l a r g e l y f o r e i g n workers, performing t h e lower c l a s s e s of work, and t h a t i n c e r t a i n cases t h e s t r i k e on t h e i r p a r t has f o r c e d out other employees who d e s i r e d t o continue wont- The employers have been o p t i m i s t i c and, where a s u f f i c i e n t number of t h e r e g u l a r working f o r c e has n o t ' - i r e p o r t e d , have suspended o p e r a t i o n s . E f f o r t s have been made by t h e workers t o e n l i s t t h e a i d of unions c o v e r i n g r e l a t e d t r a d e s , such a s ore c a r r y i n g on the Great Lakes. Reports i n d i c a t e t h a t a s t r i k e c a l l e d f o r Monday, September S $ t h , a g a i n s t the l e a d i n g independents had r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t s u c c e s s , , . * 792 X-lb91 ^ likewise e f f o r t s a t the same time t o f o r c e a shut down of the leading independent producer a t P i t t s b u r g h . t h e c l o s e of t h e month, the s i t u a t i o n i s r e p o r t e d t o have been r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e changed, a s f a r as p r o d u c t i o n was concerned# from c o n d i t i o n s p r e v a i l i n g during the e a r l y days of t h e s t r i k e * p r o d u c t i o n of bituminous c o a l d u r i n g august amounted t o 42, 883,000 t o n s , as compared w i t h 42,94b,000 t o n s d u r i n g J u l y , t h e index numbers f o r b o t h months b e i n g l i b . a s t r o n g demand f o r a n t h r a c i t e c o a l i s r e p o r t e d , r e s u l t i n g i n i n c r e a s e d shipments during August of 6,144,144 t o n s , corresponding t o an, index n w b e r of 109 as compared with b,052,33^ tons d u r i n g J u l y , corresponding t o an index number of 108. p r o d u c t i o n i s being iapeded i n c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s by c a r shortage and by labor d i f f i c u l t i e s , n o t i c e has been given by the bituminous miners of the a b r o g a t i o n of the e x i s t i n g wage s c a l e i n the c e n t r a l c o m p e t i t i v e f i e l d on November 1, and a conference of o p e r a t o r s and miners has been proposed by the l a t t e r t o meet a t B u f f a l o on September 25, t o c o n s i d e r t h e i r demands. The output of beehive coke showed a continued i n c r e a s e up t o the month of geptember, 1,808,595 tons being produced d u r i n g August, as coon pared w i t h 1,512,178 tons during J u l y . Due t o the s i t u a t i o n i n t h e s t e e l i n d u s t r y , d e c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n has been r e p o r t e d . Furnace coke has d e c l i n e d i n p r i c e * but foundry coke has been i n good demand and p r i c e i n c r e a s e s have been n o t e d . Continued q u i e t i s r e p o r t e d i n the n o n f e r r o u s m e t a l i n d u s t r i e s , w i t h l i t t l e buying by consumers, at p r e s e n t p r e v a i l s . j n view of the s t e e l s t r i k e , a w a i t i n g a t t i t u d e T r a n s a c t i o n s have c o n s i s t e d i n l a r g e p a r t of r e s a l e s by s p e c u l a t o r s a t p r i c e s below t h o s e asked by p r o d u c e r s . The g r e a t e s t s t r e n g t h has b e a n shown by l e a d , the p r i c e of which i n c r e a s e d about t h e middle of the month, continued weakness i n s i n e i s r e p o r t e d , demand from t h e s t e e l i n d u s t r y f o r b o t h t h a t m e t a l and t i n b e i n g c u r t a i l e d i n view of the p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n x-iogi - 10- 793 I t i s r e p o r t e d from the Kansas c i t y D i s t r i c t t h a t t h e reduced shipments are due l a r g e l y t o " t h e d i f f i c u l t y of o b t a i n i n g c a r s f o r s h i p p i n g out the ore p u r c h a s e d j " but t h a t p r o d u c t i o n grew n o t i c e a b l y d u r i n g t h e month of a u g u s t . The a c t i v i t y i n g e n e r a l manufacturing c o n t i n u e s , although markets i n c e r t a i n c a s e s p r e s e n t a q u i e t appearance due t o the f a c t t h a t some m a n u f a c t u r e r s a r e w e l l s o l a ahead, while i n c e r t a i n q u a r t e r s a wore c a u t i o u s p u r c h a s i n g p o l i c y i s n o t e d . The c o t t o n - y a r n market d u r i n g the month has been r e l a t i v e l y q u i e t ana p r i c e s of medium and coarse count carded yarns have shown a tendency t o d e c l i n e . The demand f o r c o t t o n goods on the whole has been q u i e t , and p r i c e d e c l i n e s i n gray goods are ^ r e p o r t e d . This c o n d i t i o n i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e p r i c e s obtained a t the second government a u c t i o n held a t yew york on September 4, a t which most of the f a b r i c s d i d not bj&ng more than 90 p e r cent of t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e s , although market p r i c e s were w e l l below those p r e v a i l i n g a t the c l o s e of J u l y , t h e time of the f i r s t a u c t i o n , when market p r i c e s then p r e v a i l i n g were exceeded i n some i n s t a n c e s . The allotment of f i n i s h e d goods f o r s p r i n g d e l i v e r y c o n t i n u e s , a t p r i c e s which are regarded as moderate by t h e t r a a e i n view of e x i s t i n g c o n d i t i o n s , and the goods are r e a d i l y t a k e n . The raw-wool market continues q u i e t , with p r i c e s f i o m , g r e a t e s t s t r e n g t h being shown by t h e f i n e r g r a d e s , worsted yarns a r e q u i e t b u t s t r o n g , s p i n n e r s being sold up t o the end of the year and d i s p l a y i n g a s yet b u t l i t t l e d i s p o s i t i o n to discuss o f f e r i n g s f o r next season- The market f o r men's wear woolens i s again q u i e t , such s p r i n g o f f e r i n g s a s m i l l s have made b e i n g l a r g e l y s o l d up- Advances i n the p r i c e s of men's c l o t h i n g f o r n e x t s p r i n g a r e announced» The women's c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y has been p r o t e s t i n g a g a i n s t t h e h i g h p r i c e s of f a b r i c s , and• a n x i e t y i s expressed l e s t t h e next s p r i n g season see a r e s t r i c t i o n of purchasing by the consumer. During the month p r i c e r e d u c t i o n s by j o b b e r s have been r e - p o r t e d i n some' l i n e s of d r e s s goods, underwear shows q u i e t n e s s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of x-ibgi - 11 - H Y94 - the between-season p e r i o d , . m i l l s having a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e amount of o r d e r s booked, though few openings f o r t h e s p r i n g season have as y e t o c c u r r e d . A s p i r i t of g r e a t e r c a u t i o n on t h e part of buyers was also n o t i c e a b l e about t h e middle of the A month. The demand f o r s i l k ana h i g h grade c o t t o n h o s i e r y c o n t i n u e s , while s i l k m a n u f a c t u r e r s s t a t e t h a t they a r e sold ahead £or some tiuje to cows, t r a d e r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e a n o t i c e a b l e s l a c k e n i n g i n demand, and s t a p l e f a l l s i l k s a r e s t a t e d t o . have been o f f e r e d by j o b b e r s a t concessions i n p r i c e . The i n d u s t r y has been handicapped by labor d i f f i c u l t i e s , i n p a r t i c u l a r by t h e p a t e r s o n d y e r s f s t r i k e and t h e r e c e n t P e n n s y l v a n i a s t r i k e * During the p a s t month the f e a t u r e of the h i d e and l e a t h e r markets has been the d e c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e s of h i d e s which comwenced i n country hia.es toward the c l o s e of a u g u s t , although about the middle ci the p r e s e n t month p r i c e s f o r b o t h c o u n t r y and p a c k e r h i d e s have again becctue f i r m e r * i n l e a t h e r the i n f l u e n c e on p r i c e s has been c h i e f l y f e l t by the l e s s d e s i r a b l e g r a d e s , though concessions on both upper and s o l e l e a t h e r are r e p o r t e d . The l e a t h e r market has been c±uiet f o r some time# but t a n n e r s a r e w e l l s o l d up# Manufacturers of shoes continue t o o p e r a t e a t c a p a c i t y , and f a v o r a b l e r e p o r t s are r e c e i v e d from salesmen now on the road. Demand f o r the b e t t e r grades of footwear c o n t i n u e s . The customary s e a s o n a l s w e l l i n the volume of b u s i n e s s i s noted i n many sections. Both w h o l e s a l e r s and r e t a i l e r s r e p o r t a l a r g e volume of b u s i n e s s , and the f e a r s which had been expressed t h a t h i g h p r i c e s might serve t o check demand c o n t i n u e t o r e p r e s e n t a f u t u r e p o s s i b i l i t y r a t h e r than a p r e s e n t a c t u a l i t y * yrom p r a c t i c a l l y a l l d i s t r i c t s i t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t e x t r a v a g a n t p u r c h a s i n g , b o t h i n r e s p e c t t o the c h a r a c t e r and q u a l i t y of goods, c o n t i n u e s u n a b a t e d . There i s a continued heavy demand f o r a u t o m o b i l e s , j e w e l r y , and uigh-grade wearing apparel. R e t a i l e r s t stocks are b e i n g d e p l e t e d , and i n many c a s e s d i f f i c u l t y c o n t i n u e s t o be e x p e r i e n c e d i n o b t a i n i n g merchandise, a l t h o u g h i n Philadelphia and S t . Louis improvement i n d e l i v e r i e s i s n o t e d . Merchants a r e , however, operating cautiously i n view of present conditions. •f , x~to9i F u r t h e r i n c r e a s e i n b u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y i s r e p o r t e d , p e r m i t s issued, d u r i n g august exceeded tne f i g u r e s f o r J u l y , t h e p r e v i o u s r e c o r d month of t h e p r e s e n t year* The i n c r e a s e has "been e s p e c i a l l y g r e a t f o r new york c i t y where i t i s s t a t e d t h a t " f o r t h e f i r s t time i n s e v e r a l years the amount of "building now under way i s f u l l y up to normal «n %n s e v e r a l other d i s t r i c t s , however, i t i s s t a t o d t o be s t i l l below normal, and a f u r t h e r i n c r e a s e i s a n t i c i p a t e d * g r e a t a c t i v i t y i n the i n d u s t r y p r e v a i l s i n s p i t e of h i g h wages and t h e s h o r t a g e of b o t h lumber and l a b o r , and h i g h e r c o s t s thus f a r a p p a r e n t l y nave had l i t t l e i n f l u e n c e i n checking c o n s t r u c t i o n . Qraers and shipments of lumber i n g e n e r a l have continued t o exceed p r o d u c t i o n , which has been hampered i n c e r t a i n s e c t i o n s by c a r and labor shortage and weather c o n d i t i o n s , and stocks have been f u r t h e r depleted* Recently, however, a decrease i n demand has been n o t e d . O f f i c i a l f i g u r e s f o r the month of august show a r e c o v e r y t o $ j j b , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 i n the export b a l a n c e from the low f i g u r e of $225,000,000 f o r the month of J u l y , though t h i s amount i s s t i l l f a r below the June f i g u r e of $624,000,000. a s comp a r e d w i t h J u l y f i g u r e s some g a i n s a r e shown i n t h e e x p o r t s of b r e a d s t u f f s , l a r g e l y wheat, and of m i n e r a l o i l s , while the August e-sports of meat and d a i r y p r o d u c t s , a l s o of raw c o t t o n , show a f u r t h e r d e c l i n e b o t h i n q u a n t i t i e s and v a l u e s , while June e x p o r t s t o Europe were approximately equal t o the e n t i r e ^ g u s t e x p o r t s , a •; growth of gouth American b u s i n e s s i s n o t e d , i r o n and s t e e l e x p o r t s , a f t e r a sharp decrease i n J u l y , recovered somewhat d u r i n g a u g u s t , l i b e r a l p u r c h a s i n g by the o r i e n t and s o u t h .America being r e c o r d e d . f i g u r e s of raw c o t t o n e x p o r t s show a c o n s i d e r a b l e d e c r e a s e from those f o r J u l y . The f o r e i g n t r a d e c o n f e r e n c e t o be h e l d at A t l a n t i c c i t y , which has been postponed from September 3t) u n t i l October 20 i n order t o p e r m i t t h e attendance of t h e f o r e i g n d e l e g a t e s , w i l l be watched w i t h i n t e r e s t . i a s h o r t p e r i o d of f a i r a c t i v i t y i n t h e s t o c k market at t h e opening of t h e . month was succeeded by a p e r i o d of r e l a t i v e q u i e t , and p u b l i c p a r t i c i p a t i o n h a s 796 V ' »-13- x*-I691 again become a small f a c t o r i n t h e g e n e r a l s i t u a t i o n . <phe market has become a d j u s t e d t o the e a s i e r c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e money market, and no sharp d e c r e a s e s i n the p r i c e ' s of s t o c k s such as c h a r a c t e r i z e d the p r e v i o u s month have been n o t e d , while s t r e n g t h has been d i s p l a y e d since the opening of the s t e e l s t r i k e , jn t h e bond market the b u l k of t r a n s a c t i o n s was i n ths u n i t e d s t a t e s s e c u r i t i e s , and p r i c e s show a r i s e , while one-year u n i t e d s t a t e s c e r t i f i c a t e s of the geptewber 15 i s s u e are s e l l i n g above p a r , r e c e n t s a l e s being on a Ui p e r cent b a s i s * R a i l road bonds have been d u l l , but r e l a t i v e l y unchanged i n p r i c e , and i n d u s t r i a l bonds have d e c l i n e d , ^he a b s o r p t i o n of new s e c u r i t i e s has continued to be much l a r g e r than u s u a l f o r t h i s season of t h e y e a r , f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the call-money r a t e have again been confined w i t h i n narrower l i m i t s than d u r i n g p r e v i o u s months, the extreme r a t e s being 4 p e r cent and 8 per c e n t . Decline i n r a t e s i n the New york money market i s n o t e d , f o l l o w i n g heavy redemption of u n i t e d s t a t e s c e r t i f i c a t e s of i n d e b t e d n e s s , and accompanying a smaller demand than a n t i c i p a t e d f o r crop-movigg f u n d s . i n t e r e s t r a t e s i n g e n e r a l , however, remain f i r m , a s t r o n g demand both f o r funds being noted i n c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t ^ f o r crop-moving purposes and. to meet the s e a s o n a l requirements of m a n u f a c t u r e r s , a l t h o u g h an e a s i e r s i t u a t i o n i s noted i n some of the a g r i c u l t u r a l d i s t r i c t s , j h e board is f i g u r e s of the volume of check t r a n s a c t i o n s c o n t i n u e at a high l e v e l , f o r e i g n exchange r a t e s have shown a downward. tendency s i n c e the opening of t h e month, s t e r l i n g , f r a n c s , and l i r e among the more important exchanges again r e a c h i n g new low l e v e l s , b e i n g quoted on September b a t 4.135, 9 - 2 1 , and 1 0 . l 4 , r e s p e c t i v e l y . Recovery has s i n c e been no t e a . The banking s i t u a t i o n c o n t i n u e s to be regarded as sound, c r e a i t and c o l l e c t i o n c o n d i t i o n s a r e good, and f a i l u r e s continue unprededentedly small ana few. ,
@FedFRASER