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1880 t FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS X-3283 For Release i n Morning P a p e r s , Tuesday, January 3# 1922, The f o l l o w i n g i s a review of g e n e r a l b u s i n e s s and f i n a n c i a l c o n d i t i o n s throughout t h e s e v e r a l F e d e r a l Reserve D i s t r i c t s d u r i n g t h e month of December, a s c o n t a i n e d i n the forthcoming i s s u e of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve B u l l e t i n . Comparison of t h e y e a r - e n d r e p o r t s w i t h -those f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g month i n 1920 demonstrates t h e continued upward movement of b u s i n e s s and i n d i c a t e s gradual r e s t o r a t i o n of normal c o n d i t i o n s . . This i s t r u e i n s p i t e of t h e f a c t t h a t t h e month of December, which i s normally a p e r i o d of comparative c l o s i n g down or t r a n s i t i o n , i n d i c a t e s , a s i s u s u a l l y t h e case, some r e c e s s i o n from t h e h i g h e r l e v e l s of p r e c e d i n g activity. autumn b u s i n e s s Chief importance i s u s u a l l y a s s i g n e d a t t h e c l o s e of t h e y e a r t o t h e h o l i d a y t r a d e , emphasis b e i n g r a t h e r on t h e s i d e of d i s t r i b u t i o n t h a n on t h e s i d e of p r o d u c t i o n . This i n t e n s i f i e d demand s e r v e s t o b r i n g i n t o a c t u a l use t h e goods produced i n t h e e a r l i e r i n d u s t r i a l p e r i o d . The h o l i d a y t r a d e ' - 2 - 2-5283 1381 i s t h u s a t e s t of t h e soundness of t h e p r e c e d i n g b u s i n e s s a c t i v i t y * R e p o r t s from athe v a r i o u s Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t s c o v e r i n g over h a l f t h e month show t h a t t h i s y e a r * s demand i n t h e e a s t e r n D i s t r i c t s h a s . r e g i s t e r e d an i n c r e a s e r u n n i n g a s high a s 10 p e r cent over t h a t of 1920> w h i l e i n othef D i s t r i c t s t h e s i t u a t i o n i s pronounced s a t isfactory. M a n u f a c t u r i n g l i n e s , a l t h o u g h slowed down because of l e s s e n e d s e a s o n a l demand, g e n e r a l l y r e p o r t a f a i r l y s a t i s f a c t o r y condition* a l t h o u g h a l a c k of forward o r d e r s s t i l l t e s t i f i e s t o , t h e u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h which t h e p r o s p e c t s of t h e coming months a r e r e g a r d e d by many f i r m s . F r e i g h t r a t e s continue a s a d i s t u r b i n g f a c t o r due t o t h e b e l i e f t h a t r e d u c t i o n s a l r e a d y announced as a f f e c t i n g some commodities may be much more w i d e l y extended i n t h e near future. M a n u f a c t u r i n g c o n d i t i o n s a r e f a r from u n i f o r m t h r o u g h o u t t h e country* There h a s been a d e c r e a s e i n t h e a c t i v i t y of t h e i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y s i n c e t h e f i r s t of December, which, however, i s a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e seasonal c o n d i t i o n s a l r e a d y r e f e r r e d t o , b e i n g p a r t l y t h e outcome of f r e i g h t r a t e d i f f i c u l t i e s and of t h e u s u a l i n v e n t o r y t a k i n g by p u r c h a s e r s , who n a t u r a l l y d e s i r e t o keep t h e i r s t o c k s a s low a s p o s s i b l e a t t h i s time* In t e x t i l e s t h e r e h a s been but l i t t l e change s i n c e l a s t month, both c o t t o n and woolen m i l l s b e i n g operated a t a h i g h p e r c e n t a g e of c a p a c i t y . U n c e r t a i n t y a s t o t h e f u t u r e of t h e c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y i s due t o x-3283 - 3 - l a b o r d i s t u r b a n c e s and t h e d e s i r e of cbnsumers f o r lew p r i c e d goods. I n t h e l e a t h e r and shoe t r a d e s s i m i l a r i r r e g u l a r i t y p r e - v a i l s , t h e m a j o r i t y of D i s t r i c t s , .however, r e p o r t i n g c o n d i t i o n s good or s a t i s f a c t o r y , w h i l e i n a few, s l i g h t d e c r e a s e s of output are noted. The r e l a t i v e l y lower p r i c e s which have been r e a l i z e d both f o r c e r e a l s and f o r c o t t o n , have proved d i s c o u r a g i n g t o t r a d e i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l d i s t r i c t s , and have a l s o r e s u l t e d i n r e t a r d i n g t h e p r o c e s s of l i q u i d a t i n g f r o z e n l o a n s r e p r e s e n t i n g p a s t advances of c r e d i t . Wholesale p r i c e s a r e showing i n c r e a s e d s t a b i l i t y , t h e i n d e x of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve Board l o s i n g only one p o i n t f o r t h e month of November, w h i l e p r i v a t e r e p o r t i n g a g e n c i e s i n d i c a t e e i t h e r s t a b i l i t y or very s l i g h t i n c r e a s e s d u r i n g December. A problem i s t h u s p r e s e n t e d t o bankers w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o t h e i r p o l icy in financing preparations f o r the next crop. Meanwhile f a r m - e r s i n many, d i s t r i c t s have shown a d i s i n c l i n a t i o n t o buy a s f r e e l y a s would o t h e r w i s e have been t h e c a s e , due t o t h e s m a l l e r p u r c h a s i n g power i n t h e i r hands, and t h e f a c t t h a t i n sane q u a r t e r s a t l e a s t t h e r e i s s t i l l u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o t h e amount of new c r e d i t which t h e y can o b t a i n . This s i t u a t i o n r e f l e c t s i t s e l f in the r e t u r n s f o r t h e w h o l e s a l e t r a d e i n t h e s o u t h e r n d i s t r i c t s where t h e month of December showed a pronounced d e c l i n e i n dry goods, a l t h o u g h t h e s i t u a t i o n i s f a v o r a b l e a s compared w i t h c o n d i t i o n s of a y e a r ago. Hardware and r e l a t e d l i n e s ape a l s o i n an u n s a t i s - factory condition. In r e t a i l t r a d e , a s a l r e a d y s t a t e d , t h e 1383 - 4 - X-32S3 e x c e p t i o n a l demand of t h e holiday season h a s s e r v e d t o o f f s e t d e c l i n e s which might o t h e r w i s e have been n o t e d a s t h e r e s u l t of t e m p o r a r i l y reduced buying power i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l d i s t r i c t s . This h a s been e s p e c i a l l y encouraging i n view of t h e f a c t t h a t November t r a d e had shown some f a l l i n g off from t h e h i g h l e v e l a t t a i n e d d u r i n g October. Unemployment c o n d i t i o n s , on t h e whole, a r e but l i t t l e changed from t h o s e r e p o r t e d a month ago. A s l i g h t l y b e t t e r s i t u a t i o n has been e s t a b l i s h e d i n some of t h e l a r g e r c i t i e s where c e r t a i n p l a n t s p r e v i o u s l y closed a r e working on p a r t t i m e . As i s always t r u e d u r i n g t h e w i n t e r , t h e c e s s a t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t y h a s s e t f r e e a c e r t a i n amount of l a b o r which, however, on t h i s o c c a s i o n , h a s not found employment a t t h e seasonal w i n t e r o c c u p a t i o n s which o r d i n a r i l y a b s o r b a p a r t of i t . A decided improvement i n European exchanges h a s t e n d e d t o some e x t e n t t o h e l p t h e f o r e i g n t r a d e s i t u a t i o n d u r i n g t h e month of December, but t h e extreme c a u t i o n i n the e x t e n s i o n of bank c r e d i t which was p r e v i o u s l y so n o t a b l e a phase of our f o r e i g n t r a d e s t i l l c o n t i n ues. Export f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e a s t i l l f u r t h e r d e c l i n e of a c t i v i t y i n s t a p l e s , w h i l e i m p o r t s show an advance. Disturbed conditions i n v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s of Europe s t i l l r e n d e r a maintenance of b u s i n e s s r e l a t i o n s w i t h them u n c e r t a i n and h a z a r d o u s . R a t e s of i n t e r e s t , which had a l r e a d y made a n o t a b l e d e c l i n e d u r i n g the autumn, have tended, on t h e whole, s t i l l f u r t h e r downward, p a r t l y owing t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e was no f o r e i g n o u t l e t f o r our c a p i t a l . X-3283 - 5 AGRICULTURE: The c o n d i t i o n of w i n t e r wheat t h i s f a l l has been g e n e r a l l y good except i n c e r t a i n p a n s of D i s t r i c t No. l b (Kansas City) and No. J ( C h i c a g o ) . D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) r e p o r t s th&t weather has "been f a v o r a b l e to the growth of the wheat p l a n t except i n n o r t h e r n I n d i a n a and the n o r t h w e s t e r n p a r t of the lower p e n i n s u l a of Michigan. In D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) t h e r e has been ample m o i s t u r e and good growth i s b e i n g made on an acreage about as l a r g e as t h a t p l a n t e d i n 1)20. Reports from D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) i n d i c a t e t h a t the c o n d i t i o n of t h e w i n t e r wheat i s s e v e r a l p o i n t s lower than l a s t y e a r , due t o l a c k of m o i s t u r e d u r i n g t h e autumn months. I n Kansas the S t a t e Board of A g r i c u l t u r e e s t i m a t e d the c o n d i t i o n of wheat at the end of November a t 5 8 . 6 p e r c e n t , which was the l o w e s t November c o n d i t i o n on r e c o r d . D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) r e p o r t s t h a t the y i e l d of the white p o t a t o crop has been g e n e r a l l y low, b u t t h a t b o t h the y i e l d and q u a l i t y of gweet potatoes are excellent. Shipments of p o t a t o e s from Nebraska p r i o r t o December 1, were g r e a t e r than t o t ^ l shipments of the 1320 c r o p . Sugar b e e t f a c t o r i e s i n Colorado r e p o r t u n u s u a l l y high y i e l d s , whereas the Michigan s u g a r b e e t crop i s n o t so l a r g e as was a n t i c i p a t e d . D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) r e p o r t s t h a t c o n d i t i o n s i n the L o u i s i a n a cane sugar d i s t r i c t a r e e x c e l l e n t , t h a t weather has been p r o p i t i o u s f o r g r i n d i n g , and t h a t t h e s u g a r c o n s i d e r a b l y l a r g e r t h a n was e x p e c t e d . yield is Reports from D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e s u g a r y i e l d has been high i n M i s s i s s i p p i , b u t r a t h e r d i s a p p o i n t i n g i n t h e s o u t h e r n c o u n t i e s of Ark an s as . L a t e s t a v a i l a b l e e s t i m a t e s i n d i c a t e t h a t 7,631,000 b u s h e l s of r i c e were r a i s e d i n C a l i f o r n i a t h i s s e a s o n , as conpared w i t h 9 , 7 2 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s i n 1920. X-3283 - o COTTON: The c o t t o n crop was e s t i m a t e d t o amount t o 8, 3U0, 000 b a l e s i n a s t a t e m e n t of t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i s s u e d December 12, which compares w i t h a crop of 13* 439>603 b a l e s i n 1920 and an average crop of 11,481,084 bales in the preceding five years. Actual ginnings of cotton prior to December 13, totaled 7*799#458 bales, as compared with 10,876,263 b a l e s i n t h e corresponding p e r i o d of 1$20, The g i n n i n g s p r i o r t o December 13# 1920, amounted t o 81 p e r cent of the crop, but t h e marked d e c r e a s e i n g i n n i n g s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t t h i r t e e n days of December i n d i c a t e t h a t a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e I92O crop was probably ginned by December 13* In spite of the i n c r e a s e i n t h e e s t i m a t e d s i z e of t h e c u r r e n t c o t t o n crop, t h e p r i c e of m i d d l i n g upland c o t t o n a t New York i n c r e a s e d from 1 8 . 4 c e n t s on November 23 t o 1 8 . 9 c e n t s on December 23.t TOBACCO: Movement t o market of t h e manufactured and e x p o r t t y p e s of tobacco h a s proceeded r a p i d l y , When t h e l e a f s a l e s warehouses i n V i r g i n i a and North C a r o l i n a closed f o r - the Christmas h o l i d a y s , i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h r e e - f o u r t h ' s of t h e s e a s o n ' s crop had been s o l d . The Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative A s s o c i a t i o n has now been i n c o r p o r a t e d , and f i n a l o r g a n i z a t i o n p l a n s are being made f o r h a n d l i n g t h e crop, but a few Burley markets a r e open, w h i l e the dark tobacco markets i n w e s t e r n Kentucky and Tennessee are i n f u l l o p e r a t i o n , In a l l sections, prices r e a l i z e d a r e g e n e r a l l y considered s a t i s f a c t o r y , a l t h o u g h i t i s s a i d from D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) demand. t h a t poor g r a d e s c o n t i n u e low and i n l i t t l e The l e a f tobacco s i t u a t i o n i n P h i l a d e l p h i a shows no charge, manufacturers not yet buying to any appreciable extent, and local dealers t h e r e a r e consequently d i s c o u r a g e d . The new .^Pennsylvania crop a s a whole has not a s y e t been sold by t h e f a r m e r s . Christmas demand f o r c i g a r s has - 7 - X-3283 bean w e l l maintained i n D i s t r i c t Mo, 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) . Jobbers have p u r - chased c a u t i o u s l y , and l i t t l e r e t u r n of unsold goods a f t e r t h e h o l i d a y s i s expected. Many d e a l e r s a t t h e l a s t minute were obliged t o p l a c e rush o r d e r s f o r a d d i t i o n a l s u p p l i e s , although l a t e r i n December some r e q u e s t s f o r d e f e r r e d shipments came i n from d e a l e r s who wished t o have s t o c k s a s small a s p o s s i b l e when t a k i n g i n v e n t o r y , FRUIT: The c i t r u s f r u i t crop i s maturing r a t h e r slowly, a s a r e s u l t of adverse weather c o n d i t i o n s i n both C a l i f o r n i a and F l o r i d a , and shipments from both S t a t e s a r e lower t h a n i n t h e corresponding p e r i o d of 1$20. District No, 6 ( A t l a n t a ) r e p o r t s t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n of oranges and g r a p e f r u i t has 1 d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y during t h e p a s t month and t h a t s i t e s on a l l v a r i e t i e s a r e r e p o r t e d t o be medium t o small. Reports from D i s t r i c t No, 12 (San Frartcisco) s t a t e t h a t t h e p i c k i n g of t h i s s e a s o n ' s crop of navel oranges began about the middle of November i n Central C a l i f o r n i a and e a r l y i n December i n Southern C a l i f o r n i a , Shipments up t o December 14 were l i j g h t and were composed l a r g e l y of small sized f r u i t , due t o t h e l a c k of e a r l y i a i l r a i n s i n t h e producing s e c t i o n s . The average p r i c e p e r box r e c e i v e d by grower# of navel oranges was $ 3 , 8 4 i n November, as compared w i t h a p r i c e of $4.32 i n November, 1920. The h a r v e s t i n g of t h e apple crop of D i s t r i c t No* 1 2 (San F r a n c i s c o ) i s now completed, and r e v i s e d e s t i m a t e s show a p r o d u c t i o n of 45,095*000 bushels i n t h a t D i s t r i c t f o r 1921, a s comparsd w i t h 30,852,000 b u s h e l s i n 1920. The 1 s e a s o n ' s shipments of boxed a p p l e s from t h e P a c i f i c Northwest t o t a l e d 37,^25 c a r s up t o December 3> as compared with 22,399 c a r s i n t h e corresponding p e r i o d of 1920. P r i c e s r e c e i v e d by growers f o r Johathan a p p l e s i n November were from 25 t o 50 c e n t s p e r box l e s s t h a n i n November, J.92o. i n g s a r e r e p o r t e d t o be normal f o r t h i s time of t h e y e a r . Storage h o l d - ' • • GRAIN MOVEMENTS: 8 - .J--., X-32S3 Grain movements were g r e a t l y c u r t a i l e d d u r i n g November and were much smaller than in e i t h e r October, 1921 or November, 1920. Wheat r e c e i p t s a t l e a d i n g i n t e r i o r c e n t e r s were smaller t h a n in any month s i n c e May and were about 35 p a r cent l e s s t h a n i n November, 1920. R e c e i p t s of wheat a t Duluth and Minneapolis amounted t o 13,707,236 b u s h e l s in November, which was $0 par cent l e s s t h a n i n October, 1921 and 36 p e r cent l e s s t h a n i n November, 1920. At fouf l e a d i n g markets of D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) 7>272, 950 bushels of wheat were received i n November, which was 43 p e r cent l e s s than October r e c e i p t s and r e c e i p t s i n November, 1920. p e r cent l e s s t h a n Despite t h i s sharp d e c l i n e i n November marketing, wheat r e c e i p t s a t t h e s e f o u r c e n t e r s from July 1 t o November 30 were 6 0 . 5 p e r cent g r e a t e r i n Ig21 t h a n i n 1920. This heavy marketing i n i n J u l y , August, September and October m a t e r i a l l y reduced s t o c k s of wheat i n f a r m e r s ' hands, but a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of stocks of corn and other g r a i n s yet remain on t h e farms. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e was a decided decrease i n November r e c e i p t s of corn, o a t s , rye and b a r l e y , a s compared w i t h October. Stocks of g r a i n a t 11 i n t e r i o r c e n t e r s d e c l i n e d s l i g h t l y , a s a r e s u l t of t h i s marked c u r t a i l m e n t of r e c e i p t s , w h i l e t h e s t o c k s a t nine seaboard c e n t e r s a t t h e c l o s e of November were 10 p e r cent l e s s t h a n i n Ootober,1921, and 8 p e r cent l e s s t h a n i n November, 1920. Stocks of rye i n c r e a s e d both a t i n t e r i o r and seaboard c e n t e r s , while t h e s t o c k s of a l l other g r a i n s were diminished. FLOUR: November p r o d u c t i o n of f l o u r showed a sharp decrease from t h e October f i g u r e i n a l l D i s t r i c t s . Output r e p o r t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) was 2,256,748 b a r r e l s i n November, which was 2b p e r cent below the October f i g u r e , . w h i l e i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) r e p o r t e d November ; X-32S3 - 9 p r o d u c t i o n was 1 , 6 7 3 , 0 3 4 b a r r e l s , which was 2 7 . 1 p e r c s n t below 1he October f i g u r e of 2 , 2 9 5 , 7 8 9 b a r r e l s . November p r o d u c t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No* 7 (Chicago) was r e p o r t e d a s 351,0C6 b a r r e l s , a d e c r e a s e of 2 9 . 5 p e r c e n t from t h e October output. P r o d u c t i o n of 11 l e a d i n g m i l l s i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) was 2 b l , 4 0 0 b a r r e l s , a s compared w i t h 359,74b b a r r e l s i n O c t o b e r . In District No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) 71 m i l l s r e p o r t e d a p r o d u c t i o n of 856,079 b a r r e l s d u r i n g November, a s compared w i t h 997*325 b a r r e l s produced by 63 m i l l s i n October. The o u t p u t t h i s y e a r , however, i s g e n e r a l l y i n e x c e s s of t h e November, 1920 f i g u r e . Lack of s t a b i l i t y i n t h e wheat market i s s a i d by s e v e r a l D i s t r i c t s t o be h a v i n g a d e t r i m e n t a l e f f e c t on t h e i n d u s t r y . M i l l e r s i n November were c l e a n i n g up old b u s i n e s s and f i l l i n g small o r d e r s f o r immediate s h i p m e n t . hand-to-mouth p o l i c y . Bakers bought b u t l i t t l e , and j o b b e r s pursued a Export t r a d e i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 0 (Kansas C i t y ) was very p o o r , w h i l e i n D i s t r i c t No* 8 ( S t , L o u i s ) such demand a s e x i s t e d was c o n f i n e d almost e x c l u s i v e l y t o c l e a r s and low grade f l o u r s . P r i c e s advanced i n l a t e November i n sympathy w i t h the u p t u r n i n wheat, b u t t h e i n c r e a s e was wiped out i n t h e f i r s t weeks of December. LIVE STOCK; November r e c e i p t s of c a t t l e and c a l v e s and sheep a t f i f t e e n w e s t e r n m a r k e t s were l e s s t h a n i n Ocjtober, a l t h o u g h r e c e i p t s of hogs were g r e a t e r , b u t f o r a l l t h r e e c l a s s e s t h e f i g u r e s were below t h o s e f o r November, 1920, November r e c e i p t s of c a t t l e and c a l v e s amounted to 1 , 3 9 4 , 2 1 7 head, a s compaKd w i t h 1 , 7 1 2 , 9 1 7 head d u r i n g October and 1 , 7 8 1 , 2 6 1 head d u r i n g November, 1920. 177. The r e s p e c t i v e i n d e x numbers were 138, 170 &n& R e c e i p t s of sheep d e c r e a s e d from 1 , 8 4 2 , 1 4 8 head i n October, c o r r e s p o n d - i n g t o an i n d e x number of 135, t o 1 , 2 4 4 , 2 1 4 head i n November, c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o an index number of 91, a s compared w i t h 1 , 5 4 2 , 4 7 7 head i n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o an i n d e x number of 113* November, 1920, R e c e i p t s of h o g s , on t h e o t h e r hand, i n c r e a s e d from 2 , 0 5 7 , 2 3 1 head d u r i n g October t o 2,559*916 head d u r i n g X-32S3 — 10 — November, a s coopared w i t h 2,624,18$ head d u r i n g November, 1920. r e s p e c t i v e index numbers were $4, l l 6 and 11$. The November i s t h e opening month of t h e w i n t e r p a c k i n g season f o r hogs, but i n the case of t h e o t h e r c l a s s e s of animals i n c r e a s e d i n t e r e s t i n f e e d i n g because of t h e low p r i c e of corn and o t h e r coarse g r a i n s , h i g h f r e i g h t r a t e s and g e n e r a l l y u n s a t i s f a c t o r y p r i c e s of l i v e animals a t t h e m a r k e t s a r e a s s i g n e d by D i s t r i c t No, 10 (Kansas C i t y ) a s f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e r e d u c t i o n i n r e c e i p t s . The l o n g drought which had p r e v a i l e d i n t h e range country of D i s t r i c t No, 11 ( D a l l a s ) f o r s e v e r a l months was broken i n many l o c a l i t i e s by e a r l y December r a i n s , w h i l e l i v e stock i n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) i s r e p o r t e d i n e x c e l l e n t c o n d i t i o n , w i n t e r range p r o s p e c t s good, and much low p r i c e d hay a v a i l a b l e f o r f e e d i n g where n e c e s s a r y . There was an extreme s c a r c i t y of hogs i n t h e P a c i f i c Northwest d u r i n g November, and t h e s t r o n g l o c a l demand was supplied from the m i d d l e - w e s t e r n S t a t e s . Twenty-five r e p r e s e n t a t i v e p a c k e r s r e p o r t a d e c l i n e of 29-7 P e r cent i n November s a l e s (measured i n d o l l a r s ) from t h o s e f o r October, and a d e c l i n e of 2 7 . 9 p e r cent from t h o s e f o r November, 1920. The domestic demand f o r f r e s h meats and l a r d i s s t a t e d by D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) t o have had a tendency t o slow up a l i t t l e i n November and December, although t h e volume was f a i r l y w e l l m a i n t a i n e d . Meat p a c k e r s i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) r e p o r t e d November export t r a d e i n pork p r o d u c t s a s on t h e whole s m a l l e r i n volume t h a n i n October. An o u t s t a n d i n g f a c t o r i n the i n d u s t r y h a s n a t u r a l - l y been the s t r i k e of packing house employees which commenced i n t h e w e s t e r n c e n t e r s , b u t s h o r t l y extended t o New York a s w e l l . X-3283 - 1 1 COAL: November, - P r o d u c t i o n of bituminous coal showed a s l i g h t d e c r e a s e d u r i n g The output f o r t h e month was 35* 955# 000 t o n s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o an index number of 97# a s compared w i t h t h e October p r o d u c t i o n of 43,7^1# 000 t o n s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o an i n d e x number of 118 and a p r o d u c t i o n of 51,^57,000 t o n s i n November, 1920, c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o an i n d e x number of 139* recent study of commercial s t o c k s of coal showed t h a t bituminous s t o c k s held by consumers on November 1, t o be 47, 000,000 t o n s , an amount s u f f i c i e n t f o r 43 d a y s ' r e q u i r e m e n t s a t t h e average r a t e of consumption m a i n t a i n e d d u r i n g t h e p r o c e e d i n g t h r e e months. Stocks were 1 6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s , or 25 p e r c e n t , below t h e maximum of 63, 000, 000 t o n s r e p o r t e d on November 8, 191S, and were t h e h i g h e s t s i n c e January 1 , 1 9 2 1 , b u t D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) r e p o r t s t h a t c o m p e t i t i o n of non-union coal and B r i t i s h coal h a s f o r c e d union o p e r a t o r s e i t h e r t o s e l l t h e i r product a t a s a c r i f i c e or t o c l o s e down t h e i r mines. P r o d u c t i o n of a n t h r a c i t e coal decreased from 1, 580, 000 t o n s i n October t o 6 , 8 5 9 , 0 0 0 t o n s i n November which i s somewhat lower t h a n t h e p r o d u c t i o n of 7> 441,000 t o n s i n November, 1920. 93 and 101. The r e s p e c t i v e index numbers a r e 102, D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) r e p o r t s t h a t domestic demand has been almost a s d i s a p p o i n t i n g d u r i n g t h e p a s t two months a s t h e i n d u s t r i a l demand f o r steam c o a l s . D e a l e r s ' s t o c k s a r e very heavy i n t h e m a j o r i t y of grades and a l t h o u g h the p r i c e s tend t o be f i r m l y maintained, t h e r e have been some s l i g h t r e d u c t i o n s . The l e s s e n i n g of i r o n and s t e e l m a n u f a c t u r i n g h a s been r e f l e c t e d i n reduced p u r c h a s i n g of coke and i n a weakening of p r i c e s . The p r o d u c t i o n of beehive coke f o r November was 477,000 t o n e a s compared w i t h 4 l 6 , 000 t o n s i n October, and 1 , 6 2 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s i n November, I92O, while November p r o d u c t i o n of by-product coke was 1 , 7 6 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s a s compared w i t h 1 , 7 3 4 , 0 0 0 t o n s i n October. X-32S3 - 12 - PETROLEUM: R e p o r t s from t h e p r i n c i p a l o i l f i e l d s i n d i c a t e an i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n of crude p e t r o l e u m f o r t h e month of November. Petroleum p r o - d u c t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No, 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) showed a marked r e v i v a l a f t e r t h e two s u c c e s s i v e months of d e p r e s s i o n caused by a s t r i k e of t h e o i l workers Average d a i l y p r o d u c t i o n d u r i n g November was ^33,3^3 b a r r e l s , an i n c r e a s e of 65;3^6 b a r r e l s over t h e d a i l y average p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t i o n d u r i n g October, Consumption a l s o i n c r e a s e d , but not t o t h e same e x t e n t a s p r o d u c t i o n , so t h a t s t o r e d s t o c k s stood a t 33j486,350 b a r r e l s on November 30, 1921, a s compared w i t h 22, 582,304 b a r r e l s on November 30, 1$20. T h i r t y - e i g h t new w e l l s w i t h an i n i t i a l d a i l y p r o d u c t i o n of 9,755 b a r r e l s were completed d u r i n g November and one w e l l was abandoned. I n t h e Kansas-Oklahoma f i e l d November p r o d u c t i o n of crude o i l was s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n f o r e i t h e r October or November, 1920. Development o p e r a t i o n s i n t h i s f i e l d shew an i n c r e a s e of 1,503 b a r r e l s i n d a i l y new p r o d u c t i o n of crude o i l over t h e October r e c o r d , though fewer w e l l s were completed i n November. o i l and r e f i n e d p r o d u c t s i n c r e a s e d r a p i d l y . reported an increased production. Stocks of both crude D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) a l s o There were 19I w e l l s completed i n t h i s D i s t r i c t d u r i n g November, i n c l u d i n g 132 p r o d u c e r s , a s compared w i t h 192 i n October, of which only 92 y i e l d e d o i l . In t h e new Mexia f i e l d 14 new p r o - ducing w e l l s were completed, y i e l d i n g an i n i t i a l p r o d u c t i o n of 103,125 b a r r e l s , but o p e r a t i o n s have been c u r t a i l e d i n t h e North Texas d i s t r i c t due i n l a r g e measure t o t h e i n s u f f i c i e n t supply of w a t e r power t o i n s u r e continuec drilling. P r i c e s i n t h e Mexia and C o r s i c a n a f i e l d s advanced on December 12, b u t o t h e r crude o i l p r i c e s i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) have remained IRON /ND STEEL: steel industry. Some tendency t o r e a c t i o n i s e v i d e n t i n t h e i r o n and November p i g i r o n p r o d u c t i o n amounted t o 1,415,481 t o n s , as compared w i t h 1,246,676 t o n s i n October, t h e r e s p e c t i v e index numbers being 6 l and 54. The t o t a l number of a c t i v e f u r n a c e s i n c r e a s e d from 96 on November 1 t o 120 on December 1, This i n c r e a s e was not p a r a l l e l e d in t h e case of s t e e l i n g o t s , t h e output of which merely rose from 1 , 6 l 6 , 8 1 0 t o n s in October, corresponding t o an index number of 70, t o 1,660,001 t o n s i n November, corresponding t o an index number of 71. F a i r l y heavy shipments r e s u l t e d i n a s l i g h t decrease i n t h e u n f i l l e d o r d e r s of t h e United S t a t e s S t e e l Corporation from 4,286,829 t o n s at t h e c l o s e of October t o 4,250,542 tone a t t h e c l o s e of November. The c u r r e n t S i t u a t i o n i s much more marked i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) than i n t h e P i t t s b u r g h d i s t r i c t , and many r e p o r t s from t h e former i n d i c a t e t h a t "the p r e s e n t s t a g n a t i o n i s even more pronounced than t h a t which e x i s t e d d u r i n g August". Dullness i s ascribed l a r g e l y t o u n c e r t a i n t y as t o f u t u r e f r e i g h t r a t e s and t h e d e s i r e of merchants to carry minimum s t o c k s a t time of i n v e n t o r y . especially poor. Demand f o r p i g i r o n i s Stocks a r e , however, r e p o r t e d low, and many i n q u i r i e s a r e being r e c e i v e d f o r d e l i v e r y d u r i n g t h e f i r s t q u a r t e r of 1922. Orders f o r f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s are f o r immediate d e l i v e r y only, but i t i s s a i d from D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) t h a t "miscellaneous new b u s i n e s s has continued t o flow i n t o t h e m i l l s s u r p r i s i n g l y w e l l . " R e f l e c t i n g t h e general s i t u a t i o n i n t h e i n d u s t r y , and t h e sharp competition e x i s t i n g f o r a l i m i t e d volume of b u s i n e s s , p i g i r o n p r i c e s have shown a f u r t h e r downward t r e n d . AUTOMOBILES: Manufacturers a r e a w a i t i n g t h e r e s u l t s of t h e automobile shows before determining t h e i r m a n u f a c t u r i n g schedules f o r t h e coming y e a r . November p r o d u c t i o n i s a p p a r e n t l y l e s s t h a n f o r t h e p r e v i o u s months, X-3283 - 14 - m a n u f a c t u r e r s h a v i n g 63 p e r cent of t h e p a s s e n g e r car o u t p u t of D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) p r o d u c i n g 69,125 c a r s i n November a s compared w i t h 84,913 c a r s i n October. November c a r l o a d shipments were 14, C6l, a s compared w i t h 17,676 c a r l o a d s i n 10,509 machines. October, w h i l e driveaways decreased from 12,SOS t o Factory s a l e s i n November a r e , however, s t a t e d t o have i n c r e a s e d over October i n D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago). NON-FERROUS METILS: The copper market continued t o improve d u r i n g t h e l a t t e r p a r t of November and during t h e f i r s t two weeks of December. On to l 4 cents December 14 copper (New York, n e t r e f i n e r y ) was s e l l i n g a t from 13-75 c e n t s j p e r pound, a r i s e of almost 20 p e r cent over t h e p r i c e i n August, The r e c o r d f o r t h e market i s p a r t i c u l a r l y encouraging when compared w i t h a s i m i l a r p e r i o d l a s t y e a r when copper d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y from 1 8 . 5 0 c e n t s p e r pound i n J u l y t o 1 2 . 3 7 5 c e n t s a t t h e end of 1920. I t i s believed t h a t copper mines may be reopened much sooner t h a n was a n t i c i p a t e d a few months a g o . Much copper h a s been sold t o l a r g e e l e c t r i c a l m a n u f a c t u r e r s f o r d e l i v e r y a s f a r ahead a s n e x t June. Export b u s i n e s s i n copper c o n t i n u e s t o be s u r p r i s i n g l y good, Germany and Japan b e i n g t h e b e s t p u r c h a s e r s . Copper p r o d u c t i o n f o r November was 24,613,754 pounds a s compared w i t h 20,926,554 pounds i n October and 21, 713/ 9^4 pounds d u r i n g November, 1920. The p r i c e of l e a d quoted by t h e l e a d i n g i n t e r e s t c o n t i n u e s t o be 4m?0 c e n t s p e r pound and a f a i r amount of b u s i n e s s i s b e i n g done a t t h a t l e v e l . P r o d u c t i o n of z i n c i n November amounted t o 21,135 t o n s , a s compared w i t h 14,538 t o n s i n October and 33,318 t o n s i n November, 1920. Stocks continued t o d e c l i n e d e s p i t e the i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n and t o t a l e d only 67, 049 t o n s on December 1. D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) r e p o r t s t h a t November s h i p - ments of z i n c o r e s from t h e mines of M i s s o u r i , Kansas and Oklahoma showed X-32S3 - 15 - an average of 7/909 t o n s shipped p e r week a s compared w i t h 6,719 t o n s i n October and 5 , 0 0 0 t o n s i n September. The average v a l u e p e r t o n i n c r e a s e d from $23.92 i n October t o $2$.25 i n November. COTTON TEXTILES: Cotton consumption i n November showed a decided i n c r e a s e over t h e amount consumed i n October and the t h a n a t any time s i n c e t h e summer of 1920. f i g u r e s were h i g h e r The l a t e s t e s t i m a t e of the Department of -Agriculture i n d i c a t i n g a l a r g e r c o t t o n crop t h a n was expected, h a s r e c e n t l y been an u n s e t t l i n g f a c t o r a l t h o u g h t h e e f f e c t s of the announcement had p r e v i o u s l y been d i s c o u n t e d t o a c e r t a i n e x t e n t . D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) e s t i m a t e s t h a t p r o d u c t i o n i n t h a t s e c t i o n i s on a b a s i s somewhat i n excess of 80 p e r cent a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e . Reports from D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) i n d i c a t e d t h a t some l i n e s of c o t t o n manuf a c t u r e s such a s branded goods, and gray goods, are b e i n g purchased a t about t h e same r a t e a s h e r e t o f o r e but i t i s s a i d t h a t no f i r m s r e p o r t a s u f f i c i e n t number of o r d e r s t o i n s u r e o p e r a t i o n s f o r more than t h r e e months. Stocks a r e b e i n g kept a t a low p o i n t w i t h a view of h a v i n g a s small i n v e n t o r i e s a t t h e end of t h e year a s p o s s i b l e . The o r d e r s r e c e i v e d by t e x t i l e m i l l ^ i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) were not a s numerous d u r i n g November a s i n September and October but the m i l l s a r e g e n e r a l l y running time on a f u l l / b a s i s and a r e l o o k i n g forward t o f a i r l y good t r a d e a f t e r the opening of t h e new y e a r . Some m i l l s a r e p l a n n i n g changes i n machinery and r e p o r t s g e n e r a l l y s t a t e t h a t t h e r e i s " r e t u r n i n g c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e s t a b i l i t y of v a l u e s f o r raw c o t t o n and t e x t i l e s . " The s p e c i a l r e p o r t s based on r e t u r n s from 37 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e c o t t o n c l o t h m i l l s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) i n d i c a t e t h a t c l o t h p r o d u c t i o n i n y a r d s during November was 4 . 2 p e r cent g r e a t e r t h a n i n October and 31-3 p e r cent g r e a t e r - t h a n i n November,1920. 1 6 - H y 8 - U n f i l l e d o r d e r s , on band a t t h e end of November d e c l i n e d 6 . 7 p e r cent a s coapared w i t h the p r e c e d i n g month but were 3^«3 p e r cent above t h o s e on hand a t t h e c l o s e of November, 1920. I t i s said t h a t w h i l e t h e t o t a l of u n f i l l e d o r d e r s on an average showed a d e c l i n e , sane of t h e r e p o r t i n g m i l l s have o r d e r s which w i l l r e q u i r e f u l l time o p e r a t i o n * f o r many weeks. One m i l l s t a t e s t h a t i t w i l l r e q u i r e 40 weeks r u n n i n g f u l l time t o complete i t s o r d e r s on hand. A m a j o r i t y of r e p o r t i n g m i l l s a r e r u n n i n g on f u l l time and some of them a r e o p e r a t i n g day and n i g h t shifts. The p r o d u c t i o n of c o t t o n y a r n by 40 m i l l s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No.6 ( A t l a n t a ) was a l s o 3«2 p e r cent g r e a t e r i n November t h a n i n October. Orders on hand a t t h e end of November d e c l i n e d 1 2 . 7 p e r cent a s compared w i t h October f i g u r e s but were 6s»3 p e r c e n t g r e a t e r t h a n a t t h e end of November, 1920. The d e c l i n e i n o r d e r s i s a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e f a c t t h a t buyers wish t o go i n t o t h e new y e a r w i t h 'small s t o c k s and, f u r t h e r m o r e , t h e r e has e x i s t e d f o r some time an element of u n c e r t a i n t y due t o t h e b e l i e f t h a t t h e p r i c e of c o t t o n would be a f f e c t e d by t h e l a t e r e s t i m a t e s of t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e . Some r e p o r t i n g m i l l s a r e s a i d t o have sold t h e i r p r o d u c t f o r many weeks ahead a t p r i c e s which allow some p r o f i t b u t a few m i l l s s t a t e t h a t t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s a r e b e i n g c a r r i e d on without p r o f i t a t t h e p r e s e n t moment* COTTON FINISHING: R e p o r t s from 34 of t h e 58 members belonging t o t h e National A s s o c i a t i o n of F i n i s h e r s of C o t t o n F a b r i c s show t h a t d u r i n g t h e month of November t h e r e was a drop i n f i n i s h e d y a r d s b i l l e d t o 97,132,172 from 105,286,414 i n October. There was a l s o a drop i n f i n i s h i n g o r d e r s r e c e i v e d d u r i n g the month, t h e f i g u r e f o r November being 8 5 , 2 7 9 , 1 7 5 a s compared w i t h 100,909,9^5 f o r t h e p r e c e d i n g month. The p e r c e n t a g e of a v e r a g e c a p a c i t y i n o p e r a t i o n f e U from 77 t o 69 p e r cent f o r a l l r e p o r t i n g Districts. 10 days t o The a v e r a g e work ahead a t t h e end of t h e month dropped from 9 - 2 day#. X-32S3 - 17 WOOLEN TEXTILES: Curing the month of November t h e r e was a s l i g h t r e d u c t i o n i n t h e a c t i v i t y of t h e woolen i n d u s t r y a s evidenced by the Census r e p o r t s of p e r c e n t a g e s of i d l e wool machinery and of i d l e h o u r s t o t o t a l s r e p o r t e d on December 1 . I n a l l c a s e s except looms 50 i n c h reed space and l e s s , p e r c e n t a g e s of a c t i v i t y and of i d l e h o u r s have i n c r e a s e d a s compared w i t h t h e b e g i n n i n g of November. For example, t h e p e r c e n t a g e of i d l e h o u r s on t h e f i r s t of t h e month t o t o t a l r e p o r t e d r o s e from 2 4 . 9 p e r cent t o 2 8 . 7 p e r cent i n t h e case of looms wider t h a n 50 inch reed space, and i n the case of woolen and worsted s p i n d l e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e s were 2 1 , 9 an& 12.6 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y , as compared with 1 8 . 3 and 8 . 1 p e r cent on November 1 . Wool consumption i n November amounted t o $58,259,000 pounds a s compared w i t h 62,130,667 pounds i n October. However, d e s p i t e t h e s l i g h t r e d u c t i o n i n a c t i v i t y which i s , n o doubt, l a r g e l y a t t r i b u t a b l e t o s e a s o n a l f a c t o r s , t h e New England m i l l s continue t o run a t n e a r l y f u l l c a p a c i t y , w i t h a r e c e n t s l i g h t slowing down i n advance of o f f e r i n g s f o r the f a l l of 1922. The incoming o r d e r s a r e s t a t e d not t o be s a t i s f a c t o r y , however, p r i m a r i l y because of t h e unsettled conditions prevailing i n the clothing industry. D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) l i k e w i s e emphasises t h e l a c k of demand from t h e c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y due not alone t o a d i s p o s i t i o n on t h e p a r t of t h e consuming p u b l i c t o demand lower p r i c e d goods, but a l s o t o t h e u n c e r t a i n t y brought about by the unsettled labor conditions within the industry. t r a d e i n woolen and worsted goods i s said t o be very a r e placed merely f o r t h e purpose of f i l l i n g i n . In that District i n a c t i v e and o r d e r s Several m i l l s - .are o p e r a t i n g a t only 25 p e r cent of normal c a p a c i t y and o r d e r s a r e not s u f f i c i e n t t o keep them running more t h a n t h r e e or f o u r weeks. The average c a p a c i t y f o r X-3283 r IS twelve p l a n t s l o c a t e d i n t h e D i s t r i c t was about 45 p e r c e n t . J •-"••••• L>1' The s i t u a t i o n of t h e y a r n m a n u f a c t u r e r s appears t o have remained s u b s t a n t i a l l y unchanged* f h e demand f o r weaving yarns continues poor while k n i t t i n g y a r n s a r e s t i l l i n g r e a t demand, and a number of l a r g e r m i l l s are o p e r a t i n g a t capacity as a r e s u l t . Raw wool p r i c e s have been advancing s t e a d i l y both f o r lower and f o r h i g h e r grades of wool, but the s c a r c i t y of t h e b e t t e r grades i s causing them to advance more r a p i d l y than t h e poorer grades* CLOTHING: Notwithstanding the u n f a v o r a b l e f a c t o r s t e n d i n g t o u n s e t t l e the c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y , t o which r e f e r e n c e has a l r e a d y been made, t h e l i m i t e d r e p o r t s a v a i l a b l e show t h a t a f a i r amount of b u s i n e s s November* was t r a n s a c t e d i n Ten c l o t h i n g f i r m s i n D i s t r i c t No, 2 (New York) engaged i n the d i s t r i b u t i o n of men 1 s and women1s c l o t h i n g , r e p o r t s a l e s i n November t o have been 11*7 p e r cent below t h o s e f o r t h e p r e c e d i n g month, b u t 21.2 p e r cent i n excess of November, 1920. I n D i s t r i c t No* 8 (St. Louis) t o t a l s a l e s and o r d e r s f o r 23 r e p o r t i n g i n t e r e s t s were s t a t e d t o have been l a r g e r i n u n i t s t h a n they were i n t h e same month of 1920, but t h e demand i s p r i n c i p a l l y f o r cheap s u i t s and manufacturers are c a r r y i n g a much l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of low p r i c e d goods- Buying i s s t i l l confined t o o r d e r s f o r immediate d e l i v e r y * In D i s t r i c t No, 7 (Chicago) from which r e p o r t s on a u n i t b a s i s are received from m a n u f a c t u r e r s of men 1 s c l o t h i n g , t h e r e t u r n s f o r t h e seaspn to date i n d i c a t e l a r g e advances i n output over t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r . The November q u e s t i o n n a i r e sent out t o e i g h t wholesale c l o t h i n g f i r m s shows t h a t o r d e r s f o r s p r i n g t a k e n from t h e opening of the season t o t h e date of t h e l a s t r e p o r t were 130*6 p e r cent i n excessof t h o s e f o r t h e corresponding p e r i o d of 1920, F i f t e e n r e p o r t i n g t a i l o r s - t o - t h e - t r a d e s t a t e t h a t t h e s u i t output f o r November was 1 1 . 1 per cent g r e a t e r t h a n f o r t h e same p e r i o d a year ago, although i t had dropped l U . l p e r cent below t h e t o t a l s f o r t h e preceding month. ' .J..- , -A X-32S3 - 19 SILK TEXTILES: R e p o r t s r a t h e r g e n e r a l l y i n d i c a t e t h a t the demand f o r s i l k goods, e s p e c i a l l y broad s i l k s , h a s been s l i g h t l y more a c t i v e of l a t e weeks and c e r t a i n l y t h e r e h a s " b e e n sone i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s due i n p a r t t o l a r g e r s a l e s f ^ i n p a r t t o t h e e f f e c t of t h e r a p i d advance t h a t h a s o c c u r r e d i n r e c e n t months i n t h e p r i c e of raw s i l k . N e v e r t h e l e s s , such s t a t i s t i c s a s a r e a v a i l a b l e i n d i c a t e a f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n i n a c t i v i t y of t h o s e m i l l s l o c a t e d i n the North Hudson and i n t h e P a t e r s o n d i s t r i c t s . I n North Hudson, 2 , 0 4 7 looms out of a t o t a l r e p o r t i n g of 4,586 were o p e r a t i n g on December S, and t h e p e r c e n t a g e of a v a i l a b l e c a p a c i t y was 37- 7« In P a t e r s o n w i t h 1% GCO looms, only 3 , 1 5 5 were a c t i v e and the p e r c e n t a g e of a v a i l a b l e c a p a c i t y i n o p e r a t i o n was 1 1 . 6 , In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) c o n d i t i o n s appear t o be much b e t t e r , a s r e p o r t i n g m a n u f a c t u r e r s a r e o p e r a t i n g a t about 30 p e r cent of normal, a l t h o u g h p r a c t i c a l l y a l l o r d e r s a r e f o r immediate d e l i v e r y . In t h e case of e s t a b l i s h m e n t s m a n u f a c t u r i n g s i l k y a r n s , t h e r a t e of p r o d u c t i o n was r e p o r t e d t o be about 63 p e r cent of normal. The f a l l i n g off i n demand which h a s o c c u r r e d , l e a d i n g t o a c u r t a i l m e n t of o p e r a t i o n s , i s a t t r i b u t e d t o u n c e r t a i n t y r e g a r d i n g f u t u r e p r i c e s of raw s i l k . S i l k consumption a c c o r d i n g t o t h e e s t i m a t e s f u r n i s h e d by t h e S i l k A s s o c i a t i o n of America amounted t o 1 8 , 3 5 5 b a l e s i n November a s compared w i t h 26,816 b a l e s i n October. HOSIERY: Only D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) and D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) r e g u l a r l y r e p o r t concerning a c t i v i t y i n t h e h o s i e r y i n d u s t r y . Judging from i n f o r m a t i o n r e c e i v e d from t h e s e D i s t r i c t s , t h e market f o r c o t t o n h o s i e r y h a s been w e l l s u s t a i n e d d u r i n g t h e p a s t month. No. 3 . ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) District n o t e s t h e r a t h e r s p e c i a l i z e d c h a r a c t e r of t h e demands. x-3^83 - 20 - The m i l l s t h a t produce h e a t h e r h o s i e r y , f o r example, a r e r u n n i n g a t capacityand o r d e r s continue t o be r e c e i v e d f o r t , e f a l l t r e d e of 1322. I t is stated t h a t t h i s f a c t i s a t t r a c t i n g more m i l l s i n t o t h i s f i e l d and t h e p r o s p e c t s a r e t h a t t h e output f o r next year w i l l be l a r g e r . The demand f o r s i l k h o s i e r y a l s o c o n t i n u e s t o be e x c e p t i o n a l l y good but o t h e r l i n e s of c o t t o n and mercerized h o s i e r y show s l i g h t a c t i v i t y and very few m i l l s engaged i n p r o d u c i n g t h e s e a r e a b l e t o run on f u l l t i m e . This s i t u a t i o n c o n t r a s t s w i t h t h a t of the m i l l s in D i s t r i c t Bo. 6 (.Atlanta), however, a s t h e manuf a c t u r e r s of c o t t o n h o s i e r y i n t h a t r e g i o n continued t o do a good b u s i n e s s d u r i n g November and were r e p o r t e d t o be o p e r a t i n g a t from 60 to 100 p e r cent capacity. One p l a n t as a m a t t e r of f a c t s t a t e d t h a t i t was running f u l l day and n i g h t and had s u f f i c i e n t o r d e r s t o keep i t going f o r some months on t h i s b a s i s . The speecial r e p o r t s r e c e i v e d by t h e P h i l a d e l p h i a Bank from 24 h o s i e r y f i r m s s e l l i n g t o t h e w h o l e s a l e t r a d e showed a s l i g h t drop i n t h e p r o d u c t manufactured during November ( i n dozens of p a i r s ) of 3 - 5 p e r c e n t . Orders booked d u r i n g November were reduced 59-^ p e r cent and u n f i l l e d o r d e r s on hand a t t h e end of November were 2 . 2 p e r c e n t below t h o s e on hand a t t h e end of t h e p r e c e d i n g month. However, t h e o u t p u t , o r d e r s booked, and u n f i l l e d o r d e r s a s compared w i t h November a year ago showed e x t r a o r d i n a r y i n c r e a s e s of 2 2 2 . 1 p e r c e n t , 6 3 . 6 p e r cent and 528.2 p e r cent r e s p e c t i v e l y . The n i n e r e p o r t i n g f i r m s s e l l i n g t o t h e r e t a i l t r a d e manufactured 1 J . 3 P e r cent fewer p a i r s i n November t h a n i n t h e p r e c e d i n g month. Orders booked f e l l 40 p e r cent and u n f i l l e d o r d e r s on hand November 30, were 19-2 p e r cent below those on hand a t t h e end of October. KNIT GOODS. Very l i t t l e change was r e c o r d e d d u r i n g t h e month of Nov- ember i n t h e p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t y of t h e r e p o r t i n g m i l l s b e l o n g i n g to the - X-3253 21 - A s s o c i a t i o n of Knit Goods Manufacturers of America* On© of t h e f o u r m i l l s r e p o r t e d closed i n October resumed o p e r a t i o n s i n November, and 57 m i l l s were t h e n o p e r a t i n g a t an average of 86.5 p e r cent of normal capaci t y as compared w i t h 87-3 P e r cent average c a p a c i t y f o r 56 m i l l s r e p o r t ^ i n g i n October. In November, 1920, r e p o r t i n g m i l l s were producing a t a r a t e of only 23* 2 p e r cent of normal c a p a c i t y , For the 56 m i l l s which f u r n i s h e d comparable data, both f o r October and f o r November, u n f i l l e d o r d e r s on November 1, showed a gain of 67,990 dozens, r e a c h i n g a t o t a l of 1,077,^03 dozens. There was a r e d u c t i o n of 99;&3& dozens i n new o r - d e r s r e c e i v e d during November, the t o t a l s f a l l i n g from 40o,675 dozens i n t h e month of October t o 306,837 dozens i n November. P r o d u c t i o n in November amounted t o 362,660 dozens -* a l o s s of 19,685 dozens. R e p o r t i n g underwear m i l l s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No* 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) s t a t e t h a t t h e r e i s an increased demand f o r heavy weight underwear and t h a t although t h e general opening f o r the f a l l season of 1922 w i l l not take p l a c e u n t i l a f t e r the new y e a r , considerable b u s i n e s s has a l r e a d y been done. Comparatively few o r d e r s f o r l i g h t weight underwear a r e now being received by m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n D i s t r i c t No* 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) * SHOES AND LEATHER. P r i c e s of h i d e s and s k i n s advanced s l i g h t l y during the f i r s t two weeks of December, but t h e r e was a marked r e d u c t i o n i n v o l ume of s a l e s . D i s t r i c t No, 7 (Chicago) r e p o r t s t h a t s a l e s of green e a t less t i e h i d e s in t h e United S t a t e s were about 26 p e r c e n t / i n November than i n October, w h i l e s a l e s of green calf s k i n s i n c r e a s e d 7-9 P 0 r cent. District No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) s t a t e s t h a t diminution i n t h e s l a u g h t e r of animals i s r e s u l t i n g i n a s t r e n g t h e n i n g of hide p r i c e s . Demand f o r s o l e l e a t h e r - 22 - . X-32S3 d e c l i n e d somewhat i n the e a r l y p a r t of.December w h i l e demand f o r most grades of upper l e a t h e r has been w e l l m a i n t a i n e d . A c t i v i t y has been p a r t i c u l a r l y marked i n t h e c a s e of l e a t h e r s i d e s and t h e i r s a l e throughout t h e United S t a t e s was l 6 . 6 p e r cent g r e a t e r i n November t h a n i n October. R e p o r t s from D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e c a l l f o r low p r i c e d shoes i s r e s u l t i n g i n a c o n s i d e r a b l e r e d u c t i o n i n s t o c k s of s i d e l e a t h e r and i n c r e a s e d i n q u i r i e s f o r cheaper grades of heavy l e a t h e r . Export o r d e r s a r e i n c r e a s i n g and a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e s o - c a l l e d " D i s t r e s s " l e a t h e r , held f o r account of banks or i n s o l v e n t t a n n e r s , has been sold f o r shipment a b r o a d . District No. 7 (Qhicago) r e p o r t s t h a t t a n n i n g a c t i v i t y was more i r r e g u l a r i n November than i n October. Shoe m a n u f a c t u r i n g continued to show c o n s i d e r a b l e a c t i v i t y during November. The November p r o d u c t i o n of n i n e i m p o r t a n t shoe m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n D i s t r i c t No, 1 (Boston) was 8 p e r cent l a r g e r t h a n i n October, and 120 p e r cent g r e a t e r t h a n i n November, 1920. Six of t h e s e concerns showed shipments 10 p e r c e n t and new o r d e r s 13 p e r cent lower i n November t h a n i n October. There h a s been some d e c l i n e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n of women's shoes t o t o t a l p r o duction. R e p o r t s of 45 shoe f i r m s i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) show t h a t p r o d u c t i o n i n November was 7 P 6 r cent l e s s t h a n i n October, but 17-8 p e r cent g r e a t e r t h a n i n November, 1920. Shipments f o r t h e s e f i r m s d e c l i n e d 18 p e r cent a s compared w i t h October, w h i l e new o r d e r s i n c r e a s e d 3 0 . 3 P e r cent and o r d e r s on hand i n c r e a s e d 18 p e r c e n t . F a c t o r i e s i n t h a t D i s t r i c t which make cheap . shoes a r e b u s i e r than t h o s e making high grade shoes and a r e r e c e i v i n g o r d e r s i n i n c r e a s i n g volume. I n D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) 27 shoe m a n u f a c t u r e r s r e - p o r t t h a t p r o d u c t i o n i n November was about 1 p e r cent lower t h a n i n October, but 67 p e r cent g r e a t e r t h a n i n November, 1920. November shipments f o r t h e s e f a c t o r i e s were 5 p e r cent l e s s t h a n i n October, w h i l e u n f i l l e d o r d e r s i n creased 2 p e r c e n t . D i s t r i c t No, 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) s t a t e s t h a t November s a l e s of 11 r e p o r t i n g i n t e r e s t s were from 14 t o $2 p e r cent l a r g e r i n number of p a i r s t h a n a y e a r ago, w h i l e the d o l l a r v a l u e was from 25 p e r cent l e s s t o 7 P e r cant g r e a t e r t h a n i n November, 1920. > ^,-i * - 2] LUMBER, X-]283 A f t e r the unusually s t r o n g demand t h i s f a l l , which continued beyond t h e u s u a l time of seasonal d e c l i n e , some decrease in demand f o r lumber i s r e p o r t e d i n s e r i o u s D i s t r i c t s . In a d d i t i o n to decrease i n b u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y , o t h e r causes given are the inventory season and t h e u n c e r t a i n t y as t o f r e i g h t r a t e s which i s causing some m i l l s t o delay shipments of lumber f o r future use. In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) , average o r d e r s from 128 pine m i l l s f o r t h e week ending December 2nd were only 400,000 f e e t , as compared w i t h 572,000 f e e t f o r 13S m i l l s f o r t h e week ending November 4th* - Average p r o duction, howeveri v. : a w e l l maintained, although weather c o n d i t i o n s in some p a r t s of the D i s t r i c t have begun t o i n t e r f e r e w i t h l o g g i n g o p e r a t i o n s . Most of t h e demand i s f o r t h e h i g h e r grades, as i s a l s o t h e case with h a r d wood lumber. ember • D e a l e r s i n t h e l a t t e r s t a t e t h a t b u s i n e s s improved d u r i n g Nov- In D i s t r i c t No* 11 ( D a l l a s ) , Hovember o r d e r s received by 37 p i n e were e q u i v a l e n t t o only 75^ of normal p r o d u c t i o n , a s compared with $0% during October* Production, however, was considerably higher than i n October, being only 26% below normal as compared w i t h 32% d u r i n g the p r e v i o u s month* In both t h e s e D i s t r i c t s shipments of p i n e outran p r o d u c t i o n , and s t o c k s were consequentl y reduced during November* The o u t s t a n d i n g f e a t u r e i n D i s t r i c t No# 8 ( S t , Louis) was a r a t h e r abrupt c e s s a t i o n of demand from r e t a i l e r s f o r b u i l d i n g lumber around the middle of November, followed by d e c l i n i n g p r i c e s , but c o n s i d e r a b l e buying of c a r and b r i d g e m a t e r i a l then commenced, and continued f o r about t h r e e weeks, Factory lumber i s quiet and weak i n t h e case of t h e major softwoods, n e t a b l y Southern pine and Western f i r , but the r e v e r s e i s t r u e of hardwoods and c y p r e s s . In t h e s e , t h e p r i c e advances made i n November have been f a i r l y w e l l held i n December. Twelve r e p r e s e n t a t i v e f i r m s i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) w i t h about 600 r e t a i l y a r d s r e p o r t s a l e s i n board f e e t a s 30 p e r cent l e s s i n November t h a n i n October and 57 p e r cent l e s s t h a n a y e a r ago# Fourteen manu- f a c t u r e r s r e p o r t s i m i l a r p e r c e n t a g e s of d e c l i n e i n c u t , w h i l e combined s t o c k s of w h o l e s a l e r s and r e t a i l e r s a t t h e end of November were about 6 p e r cent l e s s t h a n a month ago and 10 p e r cent l e s s t h a n a y e a r ago when measured i n board f e e t . General c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e lumber i n d u s t r y of D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) are r e p o r t e d more s a t i s f a c t o r y t h a n a t any time i n t h e p a s t s i x t e e n months. The s u c c e s s and i n c r e a s i n g importance of w a t e r - b o r n e shipments t o the A t l a n t i c Coast, and a s u s t a i n e d export demand have been t h e o u t s t a n d i n g f e a t u r e s of t h e market# November p r o d u c t i o n of four a s s o c i a t i o n s was 3 5 ^ , 2 5 2 , 0 0 0 f e e t , or 7^ l e s s t h a n i n October. This d e c r e a s e was p a r t l y s e a s o n a l and p a r t l y due t o severe storms which swept t h e Columbia R i v e r Valley i n Oregon d u r i n g t h e l a s t week of November and caused t h e c l o s i n g of some m i l l s and c u r t a i l m e n t of p r o duction in others* Orders r e c e i v e d d u r i n g November were 351*280,000 f e e t , or 20*3# l e s s t h a n i n October, and shipments f e l l t o 340,150,000 f e e t . M i l l stocks on November 30th were l e s s t h a n a month e a r l i e r , e x c e p t a t t h e p i n e m i l l s of C a l i f o r n i a and Oregon, w h i l e wholesale and r e t a i l y a r d s a r e s a i d t o be c a r r y i n g only s u f f i c i e n t lumber t o meet the c u r r e n t needs of t h e i r t r a d e , Prices i n t h e upper grades were steady d u r i n g November, w h i l e i n c r e a s e s occurred i n a few of t h e lower grades* Logging o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e P a c i f i c Northwest, due l a r g e l y t o s e v e r e storms, were l e s s t h a n i n October. BUILDINGr The v a l u a t i o n of b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s i s s u e d i n s e l e c t e d c i t i e s d u r i n g November showed a moderate d e c l i n e from t h e h i g h l e v e l reached i n Oct o b e r i n a l l of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve D i s t r i c t s except D i s t r i c t No, 11 ( D a l l a s ) . The p e r c e n t a g e of d e c r e a s e v a r i e d from 2 , 0 p e r cent f o r D i s t r i c t No, 1 (Boston) t o 3 0 . 7 p e r cent f o r D i s t r i c t No* 8 ( S t , L o u i s ) . The v a l u e of p e r m i t s i s s u e d i n s e l e c t e d c i t i e s of D i s t r i c t No, 11 ( D a l l a s ) was 2 0 , 4 p e r cent g r e a t e r i n - 25 November t h a n i n October. X-3283 A comparison w i t h November, 19-0, shows c r e a s e s i n value of p e r m i t s issued i n large in- every Federal H e s e r v e D i s t r i c t , ranging from 2 3 . 8 p e r cent i n D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) t o 189-5 F e r cent i n D i s t r i c t No. .2 (New York). The t o t a l value of b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s issued i n l66 s e l e c t e d c i t i e s amounted t o $145,883, 415 i n November, a s compared w i t h $172,204,403 in October, 1921, and $73*17^ 276 i n November, 1920. The value of c o n t r a c t s award- ed i n seven Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t s , a s compiled by t h e F. W. Dodge Company decreased from $203,95^,^31 i n October t o $127,374,432 i n November, Decreases were r e g i s t e r e d i n D i s t r i c t s NoJ 1 (Boston), No.2 (New York), No, 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) , No. 5 (Richmond), No. 7 (Chicago), and No. 9 (Minneapolis), while D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) r e g i s t e r e d a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e . D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) r e p o r t s t h a t the i n c r e a s e i n t h e volume of r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i s p a r t i c u l a r l y encouraging, and e s t i m a t e s t h a t t h e cost of b u i l d i n g and t h e s i z e of r e n t s are now on about t h e same comparative b a s i s as i n 1913. Reports frem D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) s t a t e t h a t , although a l a r g e number of p e r m i t s have been i s s u e d , but l i t t l e a c t u a l ' c o n s t r u c t i o n i s being done, owing t o t h e approach of w i n t e r and t h e u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o f u t u r e costs. In D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) t h e r e has been a d e c l i n e i n l a r g e b u i l d - i n g e n t e r p r i s e s , but t h e r e has been a continuance of r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g . Reports from D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas City) a l s o show a marked i n c r e a s e i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of r e s i d e n c e s , but l e s s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e e r e c t i o n of b u s i n e s s b u i l d i n g s and f a c t o r y e x t e n s i o n s . Construction continues active in t h e coastal c i t i e s of D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , but has shown some s l a c k e n i n g in the interior states. EMPLOYMENT. The Department of Labor t h o r u g h i t s Employment Service announced t h a t on November 30, 1,428 f i r m s which make r e g u l a r r e p o r t s t o i t , had 7,219 more employees on t h e i r pay r o l l s t h a n a t t h e end of t h e p r e c e d i n g -20 month. X-32S3 The i n c r e a s e , however, w^s r e l a t i v e l y s l i g h t amounting t o only .46 p e r cent* Consequently the f i g u r e s do not i n d i c a t e much change i n the e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n one way or the o t h e r . In D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) the t e x t i l e c e n t e r s are those i n which the s u b s t a n t i a l gains t h a t have been achieved have been most f u l l y r e t a i n e d . Unemployment i s c o n s i d e r a b l e i n the s h o e , c e n t e r s of Massachusetts b u t the s i t u a t i o n i s s a i d t o be more n o r mal i n Brockton than elsewhere# On the o t h e r hand, unemployment in Providence i s more widespread than a t the beginning of 1)21 although a s l i g h t improvement has occurred during t h e -Autumn. In the metal working, machinery and t o o l making d i s t r i c t s which have s u f f e r e d froin s h a r p c u r t a i l m e n t of a c t i v i t y , employment c o n d i t i o n s began t o improve a t the beginning of t h e /utumn- The r e p o r t s from the -Massachusetts Department of Labor and I n d u s t r y , and s i m i l a r d a t a from the o t h e r New England s t a t e s 11 i n d i c a t e t h a t the peak of unemploy- ment has been passed" but t h a t " c o n d i t i o n s are s t i l l s e r i o u s e s p e c i a l l y since prolonged i d l e n e s s has reduced the r e s o u r c e s of many f a m i l i e s " . There have been v i r t u a l l y no changes i n the s i t u a t i o n i n t h e S t a t e of New York during the month .as the s e a s o n a l d e c l i n e s t h a t have occurred i n some l i n e s have been o f f s e t by i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y i n o t h e r s , n o t a b l y i n the i r o n and s t e e l industries. The i n c r e a s e s i n numbers employed r e p o r t e d by the New York S t a t e Department of Labor amounted to 3 P e r cent i n t h e metal i n d u s t r i e s , w i t h a somewhat s m a l l e r gain in wood working f a c t o r i e s , Increases are, however, o f f s e t by r e d u c t i o n s in the c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y due t o s t r i k e s and t o s ea s o n al f a c t o r s , and a l s o by d e c l i n e s i n the food p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r i e s * The Municipal Employment Bureau of New York C i t y r e p o r t s t h a t the number of a p p l i c a n t s f o r p o s i t i o n s was l e s s i n November and December than i n Octob e r , while the h o l i d a y season has brought about a somewhat i n c r e a s e d demand f o r workers* The Bureau has t h e r e f o r e been able t o p l a c e a l a r g e r percentage I * - 27 - of a p p l i c a n t s . X-32S3 The l a t e s t f i g u r e s a v a i l a b l e f o r D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l - p h i a ) i n d i c a t e a d e c l i n e i n r e c e n t weeks i n i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y . On Decem- b e r 15 t h e P e n n s y l v a n i a s t a t e Department of Labor r e p o r t e d t h a t t h e number unemployed i n t h e s i x c i t i e s of Altoona, H a r r i s b u r g , Johnstown, P h i l a d e l p h i a , S c r e n t o n and W i l l i a m s p o r t had i n c r e a s e d S*4 p e r cent over t h e r e t u r n s f o r December 1 . The l a r g e s t p a r t of t h i s i n c r e a s e , however, was accounted f o r by t h e c l o s i n g of t h e c o a l mines i n t h e S c r a n t o n d i s t r i c t . A compilation b a s e d on a s p e c i a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e s e n t out t o 517 f i r m s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No- 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) showed t h ^ t t h e n u m e r of employees on t h e pay r o l l s on December 1, was 1 3 2 , 2 6 8 , a f i g u r e 1 p e r c e n t l e s s t h a n t h a t r e p o r t e d on June 1, b u t 4-5 p e r c e n t l a r g e r t h a n t h e number employed on September 1 . D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) r e p o r t s no a p p r e c i a b l e change i n t h e number of unemployed i n t h a t D i s t r i c t * Two i m p o r t a n t r a i l r o a d s h"ve c l o s e d t h e i r sh6ps u n t i l a f t e r t h e new y e a r t h e r e b y r e l e a s i n g s e v e r a l thousand men, b u t t h e r e has been some i n c r e a s e i n t h e amount of p u b l i c work b e i n g done i n t h e c i t i e s employed and c o u n t i e s . There has a l s o been a s l i g h t a c c e s s i o n t o t h e number/by the i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t s l o c a t e d i n the D i s t r i c t . In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) r e a c t i o n a r y t e n d e n c i e s were in e v i d e n c e i n November. R a i l r o a d r e p a i r shops were r e p o r t e d t o have reduced t h e number employed by about 5 P e r c e n t and m a n u f a c t u r e r s of f o o d and k i n d r e d p r o d u c t s had a l s o f e w e r employees on t h e i r pay r o l l s . On t h e o t h e r hand, d u r i n g November the t e x t i l e i n d u s t r y showed a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n t h e number employed. In D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) t h e s p e c i a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e which was s e n t out t o 258 f i r m s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the s i t u a t i o n had remained p r a c t i c a l l y unchanged d u r i n g November as t h e r e was only a f r a c t i o n a l i n c r e a s e of .3 p e r c e n t i n t h e number employed on November 30 as compared w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g month. The r e d u c t i o n as compared w i t h t h e same month a y e a r ago amounted t o 1 9 . 3 p e r c e n t . Reports from the D e t r o i t - 28 - X-32S3- Employers Association showed that f i r m s employing 111,403 men on November 1, had 110,118 men on t h e i r pay r o l l s on December 13. I t i s s a i d , however, t h a t i f the r e d u c t i o n in working hours be taken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n there would be a decrease in the number of man-hours worked of 9«5 P e r c e n t . In D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis), although there was an i n c r e a s e i n the number employed in the l a r g e r f a c t o r i e s i n Minneapolis and S t . Paul during the month of November t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s a t t r i b u t a b l e e n t i r e l y t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e a c t i v i t y of r a i l r o a d r e p a i r shops. Taking the D i s t r i c t as a whole employment conditions are said to be l e s s f a v o r a b l e as "in Minnesota, weather conditions work and b u i l d i n p c o n s t r u c t i o n . have a f f e c t e d road Flotir m i l l s are beginning t o reduce operations and the i r o n mines have closed down in the rve.jority of cases« In North Dakota, unemployment i s growing more serious with the approach of cold weather and the completion of public works. In South Dakota unemployment shows a decrease from October on account of a large volume of b u i l d i n g . In Montana, the g e n e r a l em- ployment trend i s downward, although lumber and f l o u r m i l l a c t i v i t y has i n creased somewhat. increased i d l e n e s s . Minins shows no improvement and seasonal c o n d i t i o n s have Beet sugar f a c t o r i e s are completing t h e i r s e a s o n ' s work. In g e n e r a l , i n the a g r i c u l t u r a l regions of the Minneapolis D i s t r i c t , there i s a complete lack of demand f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l laborers and a general surplus of common l a b o r " . In D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San Francisco) unemployment increased in a l l s e c t i o n s during November due b o t h t o seasonal d e c l i n e s in a g r i c u l t u r e and to r e d u c t i o n i n i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y . Increases in unemployment were c h i e f l y evident i n a g r i c u l t u r e , lumbering, f i s h i n g and s h i p b u i l d i n g . in the D i s t r i c t are as a whole f a i r l y well employed. S k i l l e d laborers The considerable increase i n unemployment in C a l i f o r n i a i s a t t r i b u t e d to the coming i n of migratory workers from other p a r t s of the country with the c e s s a t i o n of seasonal a c t i v i t y . In Oregon and Washington also the end of the h a r v e s t season and the closing of < - 2% - X-3283 logging camps and saw Trills have added t o the number of unemployed. In Arizona, Nevada and Utah t h e r e has been p r a c t i c a l l y no improvement i n l a b o r c o n d i t i o n s and none i s l i k e l y u n t i l t h e r e i s a g e n e r a l resumption of work i n the mining and s m e l t i n g i n d u s t r i e s * WHOLESALE TRADH. A v a r i e t y of f a c t o r s , b o t h cf a s e a s o n a l and of a s p e c i a l n a t u r e has c o n t r i b u t e d t o a marked r e d u c t i o n i n the s a l e s of most of the r e p o r t i n g wholesale f i r m s i n the f o u r l i n e s of g r o c e r i e s , d r y goods, h a r d ware, b o o t s and s h o e s . The r e d u c t i o n s a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y marked i n t h e c a s e of d r y goods, t h e d e c r e a s e s in s a l e s d u r i n g November as compared w i t h October ranging from a minimum of 12.7 p e r c e n t i n D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York), w i t h t h r e e f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , t o a maximum of 3 8 . 1 p e r c e n t i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) with ten firms r e p o r t i n g . The d e c r e a s e s a r e e s p e c i a l l y heavy i n the t h r e e s o u t h e r n D i s t r i c t s No. 5 (Richmond), No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) , and No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) • These r e d u c t i o n s i n s a l e s no doubt r e p r e s e n t n o t only a s e a s o n a l r e c e s s i o n , which i s a p t t o be more pronounced i n Southern a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t i o n s than elsewhere, b u t t h e y a l s o r e f l e c t a. diminished p u r c h a s i n g power due t o the slower movement of such c r o p s as c o t t o n , sugar and r i c e > -As compared w i t h a y e a r ago, however, d r y goods s a l e s make a q.uite f a v o r a b l e showing and, unq u e s t i o n a b l y - given the g r e a t p r i c e r e d u c t i o n s t h a t have occurred i n the i n t e r v a l - they r e p r e s e n t a g r e a t e r volume of goods than d i d the November s a l e s of t h e p r e c e d i n g y e a r . In D i s t r i c t No. 2 (*rew York) and No. 12 (San F r a n c i s o o ) t h e r e a r e i n c r e a s e s in s a l e s values of d r y goods of 1 1 . 6 p e r c e n t , 3 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , and 5»2 p e r c e n t , 12 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , r e s p e c t i v e l y , over l a s t y e a r . Decreases ranged from 1 . 4 p e r cent in the case of D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond), 18 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , t o 8 2 . 3 per c e n t i n t h e case of D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis), 5 firrrs reporting. Another f a c t o r i n f l u e n c i n g the November d r o p i n s a l e s , n o t only i n d r y goods b u t i n a l l other l i n e s , i s d o u b t l e s s the d e s i r e on the p a r t - 30 - X-322) of r e t a i l e r s t o e n t e r upon the new year w i t h i n v e n t o r i e s reduced t o the lowest p o s s i b l e p o i n t * In the case of wholesale grocery, f i r m s , decreases d u r i n g November as compared with October ranged from 1 . 1 p e r cent in the c a s e of D i s t r i c t No.2 (Mew York), with 9 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , to 19 r e r cent i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) , with 13 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g . D i s t r i c t No- 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) i w i t h 48 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , s t a t e s t h a t t h e u s u a l b r i s k h o l i day demand i s l a c k i n g , and D i s t r i c t No* 6 (.Atlanta) emphasizes the slow movement of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s as having had a pronouncedly d e p r e s s i n g e f f e c t upon the demand from a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t i o n s . Here a g a i n , however, the showing as compared w i t h a y e a r ago i s q u i t e f a v o r a b l e from the p o i n t of view of volume of s a l e s , decreases, ranging from 4*9 p e r cent i n the case of D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) , with 5 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , t o 30*4 p e r cent i n t h e case of D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a , w i t h 29 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g # The drop i n hardware s a l e s i n November i s probably a t t r i b u t a b l e in good p a r t to the s e a s o n a l r e d u c t i o n in the demand f o r b u i l d i n g and cons t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s , and a l s o to the f a i l u r e of r e t a i l e r s t o p l a c e t h e usu a l advance o r d e r s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l s u p p l i e s f o r s p r i n g u s e . The g e n e r a l • testimony seems t o be t o the e f f e c t t h a t b u s i n e s s i n hardware i s , on the whole, u n u s u a l l y slow even f o r the season. Decreases i n November s a l e s as compared w i t h October ranged from 1*3 p e r c e n t i n the c a s e of D i s t r i c t No* 11 ( D a l l a s ) , w i t h 11 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , t o ,17-2 p e r c e n t i n the c a s e of D i s t r i c t No* 10 (Kansas C i t y ) , w i t h 4 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g . In D i s t r i c t No* 5 (Richmond) , No# 6 ( A t l a n t a ) , No, 7 (Chicago) and No* 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , s a l e s of b o o t s and shoes in November r e g i s t e r e d marked d e c l i n e s as comp a r e d w i t h October, the r e s p e c t i v e p e r c e n t a g e s b e i n g 3&*6 p e r cent w i t h IS f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , 23,S p e r c e n t with 10 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , l6«7 P e r <-ent w i t h 11 f i r m s r e p o r t i n g and 18-4 p e r c e n t w i t h 1^ f i r m s reporting* D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) r e p o r t s t h a t i t i s 1 - 31 - X-32S3 probable that warm weather was responsible for some of the falling off in shoe sales in that District* On the other hand District No, 2 (New York) reported a slight increase of 2*5 per cent for the 8 firms reporting in that District. In all cases except District No. 12 (Sara Francisco) where there was' a negligible decrease as compared with a year ago, shoe sales showed a decided increase, ranging from 5+2 per cent in the case of District No. 7 (Chicago), with 11 firms reporting to 45*3 per cent in the case of District No. 2 (New York) , with 8 firms reporting. It will be remember- ed: that a year ago the shoe industry was in an unusually depressed condition and the increases therefore find their explanation in this fact# RETAIL TRAPE. Retail sales in November showed a noticeable decrease as compared with those of October* 1921, and November, 1^20* Reports of Districts No. 1 (Boston) and No. 2 (New York) for the f i r s t part of December, however, showed increases of 10 per cent and 3 P e r cent respectively, over the corresponding period in lj20, indicating that the volume of Christmas trade h^s been larger than last year. During November activity was great- est in the tobacco, candy, gloves and jewelry lines, while the market for heavy clothing was unusually dull. November sales of JSl representative department stores throughout the United States showed a decrease of 13*7 per cent from the sales of November, 1320* Decreases were recorded in all Districts and amounted to 7.2 per cent in District No* 1 (Boston), 8*2 per cent in District No. 2 (mew York), 8*9 P e r cent in District No- 3 (Philadelphia), 21,1 per cent in District No. 4 (Cleveland) > 12«3 P e r cent in District No* 5 (Richmond), 21,4 per cent in District No. 6 (Atlanta), 1~*9 per cent in District No* 7 (Chicago), 3.4 per cent in District No. 8 (St.. Louis), 18.3 p6r cent in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) , 13*8 per cent in District No, 10 (Kansas City), 25*3 P e r cent in District No. 11 iDall-s), -A 7*9 P e r cen ^ X-3283 District No* 12 (Sas Francisco) * Department store stocks showed l i t t l e change during November and. the rate of turnover remained approximately the same as in October, while outstanding orders were somewhat lower. PRICES» No material change has occurred in the general wholesale price level in the United States in the last six weeks. Price revisions continue to he made, hut the average of e l l prices has tended to he stabilized about a level 40 to 50 per cent above the pre-war. There has been no considerable change from this level since last April, the indexes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve Board showing a range of not more than 6 points during this entire period* The Federal Reserve Board index for November stood at lUo as compared with lUl in October, and 100 an the base year, 1913* During November, the various group indexes, such as the prices of raw materials> producer^* and consumers1 goods shewed even less change than in recent months# The trend of producers 1 goods was definitely towards lower levels# but raw materials and finished consumers 1 goods showed very l i t t l e change* Domestic goods as a whole declined while foreign imported goods rose, but the rate in both cases7 was slow* Agricultural commodities were the only group in which prices declined seriously during November, while lumber prices showed the most material increases * Oils, certain of the nonferrous metals, hides> and rubber were among the other commodities to increase in price* Coal, pig iron, cotton and many leading agricultural commodities declinedDuring the f i r s t three weeks of December, prices in the semi-finished steel industry have tended to ,increase but pig iron has continued to decline and the downward movement in bituminous coal has gained in momentum* prices have also steadily declined• Agricultural prices show varied tenden- cies, hogs and cattle declining, wheat and oats advancing* Cot ton - 33 - X-32S3 Retail prices during November also showed very l i t t l e change from the September and October levels. The index of food prices compiled "by the Bureau of Labor Statistics registered 152 as compared with 153 in October and an average of 100 in 1913. SHIPPING. Changes in ocean freight rates during December were unim- portant as compared with those which have occurred in the last few months• In spite of some reductions in a number of trades, including the Far East, rates were in general firmer than for some time past* The charter market displayed l i t t l e activity, and while a few vessels were chartered at figures Representing concessions below quotations in the previous month, there was nothing approaching a general decline during December. Taking the year as a whole, the shipping industry has been passing through a most difficult period in which many of the weaker operators have been forced ,to go out of business, and in which, as a result of greatly reduced freight rates, smaller available cargoes, and continued high costs of operation, very few companies have been able to make a satisfactory showing. This condition has been world-wide, although American companies have f e l t in special degree the handicap of a higher scale of wages than their foreign competitors have been obliged to pay FOREIGN TRADE. The outstanding fact in connection with the latest o f f i c i a l reports on our foreign trade is the decline in the value of exports in November to the lowest level reached since August, 1915* At the same time the value of imports increased well above the figures recorded for recent months, with the result that the excess of merchandise exports over imports was less than in any previous month for more than a year. During November, the flow of gold to the United States which has been an important factor in our foreign trade ever since October, 1920, continued without interruption, swelling the total net imports of the metal in the f i r s t eleven months of ,34- x - 1921 to a figure of about $63£ 1000,CCO. -3283 In the same months of 1320, net imports of gold amounted, to only $67 >000,COO, while for the same period of 1913 the movement was in the opposite direction, net exports of gold totaling $258,000,000. Stated in terms of value, the export trade of the United States in November amounted to $21$,000,000, compared with $3^3»552,4lS in October, and $676,528,311 in Uoverrber, 3^20. The large decline from a year ago that is revealed in these figures is in no snail measure to be accounted for by the much reduced prices at which practically all commodities are now valued. That there has been some contraction in the actual volume of shipments is apparent from a comparison of the quantities of the principal individual commodities in our export trade now as against a year ago, and also from the reductions in the weight of water-borne exports as shown by data compiled by the Department of Comrrerce from the records of the United States Shipping Board. More exact than comparisons w i t h the value statistics of a year ago, are com-erisons between the values reported for recent months, in which changes in the price level are not very serious and where the values indicate more feirly the real tendencies in our foreign trade. Such comparisons with recent months disclose the fact that since prices reached a more stable level some months ago, our foreign trade hps witnessed nothing approaching a serious decline, Viewed in this way, the foreign trade situation is by no means so discouraging.
@FedFRASER