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FEDERJIL RESERVE 'BO.ARD STftTEMENT FOR THE PRESS X-3210 For Release in Morning Papers, Saturday, October 1, 1921. The fallowing is a review of general business and financial conditions throughout the several Federal Reserve Districts during the month of September, as contained in the forthcoming issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Further decided imp1·ovement in the credit situation has been the noteworthy feature of business during the month of September. In the cotton regions liquidation of credit has been rendered possible in consequence of the marked advance in the price of cotton which has carried practically all contracts ·above 20 cents a pound. At the same time Jlmprovement in ~vhole- sale and'retail trade has been expected as a result of the increase in the ability of the farmer to settle his accounts both with banks and with dealers. The greater abundance of funds in the cotton raising districts is reported as having been reflected in larger wholesale trade. The effects of liquidation expected from the advance in the price of cotton have not as yet had time to appear in the condition statements of Federal Reserve I Banks. On the other hand~ the advance in prices not only of cotton, but of other agricultural products has had certain indirect results. The textile industry has not vet bou~~t freely of cotton at ... ' \ X-3210 -2- the new price level which has been established but such mills as possessed a stock of volume of orders. l~v priced cotton have attracted a considerable In the grain growing districts, the output has continued to move steadily to distributing points and has also gone abroad in considerable amounts. This grain movement bas been practically the heaviest on record. Heavy movemsnt of live-stock has also been noted and prices have weakened. While attention has been largely concentrated on the agricultural side of business development during the month, manufacturing has also continued to sha# a wholesome improvement in many lines. The advance in the iron and steel trade first noted in August has been sustained during the month of September in certain l1nes 1 notably ~n pig iron and light products such as wire and sheets, in which price· advances have occurred. Although orders fell in .August an advance has occurred since that time. increase in the numbers of men ernployed has taken place. Steady In this connection should also be noted the improvement of the railway industry. The net earnings of Class I railways for August were about $70,000,000 and on many lines the rate of earnings is near the level taken as a standard in the Transportation Act. Textile zilanufacturing has been well sustained during the month, and the boot and shoe industry has been notably active in Districts No. l, 11 and· 8. There is still, however, hesitancy on the part of dis- tributors to place f oNard orders al thougn a large seasonal increase -3,- X-3210 in certain lines of wholesa+e trade coupled with replacement · orders have resulted in advances. Prices continued to adyance during J'ugust. The index compiled by the Federal Reserve Board for international comparisons registered an increase of two points over the July figure, while the trend during September also appears to have been upward. Declines in particular lines of business such as live- stock are due to local marketing condi tiona. Employment on the other hand has increased only slightly although the situation is better than at the end of August. The end of the harvesting and crop-moving season may tend tc increase the number of unemployed but such tendency is likely to be offset bY growth in demand on the part of manufacturing industries. Railroads have begun to increase the number of their employees to some extent. especially noteworthy , This is in the far vv est and is emphasized in the reports received from District No. 12 (San Francisco) •~here holds true also of general rublic utility undertakings. it The fact that building contracts have reached a record figure for this year promises larger employment in that direction during the autumn~ Financially the month has been notable for the decided fall in German exchange, the mark at one tia:e going below .9 Of one cent. Easier money conditions have grown out of the gradual liquidation in the east and south and two Federal Reserve Banks have reduced their discount rate to 5 per cent. The shrinkage of bills held has been a natural outgrowth of the credit situation. Call ~oney as well as commercial paper rates have tended low:3r. Taken all in all~ the month has been in the main a period of distinctt. encourag~li'Jentand gives promise of better conditions as the autumn and ~~inter advance. -4.AGRICULTURE. was 92.9 X-3210 The composite condition of all crops on September l per cent of their average condition on that date during the last ten years) as compared with a composite condition of 93 per cent on August 1. There was a serious deterioration in the crops of cotton and oats during August., but this was largely counterbalanced by a marked improvement in the condition of the corn and tobacco crops. The production of corn forecasted on September l amounted to 3.166Jooo,ooo bushels., which is 154.ooo.ooo bushels greater than the forecast of August 1 and 316.ooo,oco bushels greater than the average production for the last six years. (Minneapolis) is about the largest on record. 6 The corn crop in District No. 9 per cent greater than that of 1920. and is In District No. 10 (Kansas City) there was also a considerable improvement in ~he condition of corn during August., but hot weather and lack of moisture caused considerable damage in Nebraska and Oklahoma, The indicated production of wheat was 754.000.000 bushels on September 1., as compared with a forecast of 757,000"000 bushels on August 1, and an average production of 824,0C9.000 bushels during the last six years. However, District No. 9 (Minneapolis) stat3s that the spring wheat crop is superior to any crop in a generation from a milling and baking standpoint., and estimates that the gluten content will average 2 per cent higher than that of the 1920 crop. The white-potato crop improved somewhat during August, but the estimated production on September l was only 323, coo. 000 bushels) in cc.nparison >vith an average production of 3601 000 1 000 bushels during the previous six years·. District No. 6 (.Atlanta) reports that the condition oi the cane sugar crop in Louisiana om September 1 indicated a production of 222,527 t'ons of sugar, as compared with a production of 169) 127 tons in 1920. -5out the cotton bslt. Since the issuance of. X-.3210 t~e condition report of .August 25, the cotton crop in District No. 1.1 (Da:'.lad has suffered serious damage from a t:-opical storm which swept twenty colillties of Texas. District No. 6 (Atlanta) states that boll weevils have continued to be very active throughout Gecrgia1 ru1d 1 as a result, the crop in thirty-two counties is estimated to be less than 30 per cent of normal. The Alabama crop, on the other hand, showed some improvement during the past month. Reports from Di,"ltrict No, 10 U~ansas City) indicate that the Oklahoma crop has been seriously damaged by hot weather and drought, and has also suffered during Septemoer from the continued activities of the boll weevil, the boll worm 1 and the army worm. District No. 6 (St. Louj.s) reports that the depredations of the boll weevil continued unchecked during September, and that the crop has continued to deteriorate at quite as disastrous a pace as in August. The adverse news concerning the condition of the cotton crop resulted in an increase in the price of cotton at New Orle~s from 12 cents per pound on August 16,to 19 cents per pound on September 16. grol'~ers Cotton in general seem to consider that this appreciation in cotton values more than compensates them for the reduction in the volume of their crop. TO]}CCO. As a result of favor·able weather conditions during August, the average condition of the tobacco crop increased from 67 per ·cent· on August 1 to 71 per cent on September 1~ and the estimated production on the latter date was 948,324, OCO po1mds. The increase was found in both the cigar and manufactured and export types. The North Carolina and Virginia crops are far below last year, the second -6- X-3210 being estimated as the smallest since 1907, and on account of unfavorable weather much of the crop is of poor grade. in progress in general during September and has some sections. b~~m Harvesting was completed in The South Carolina markets have closed, the crop having been short and on the whole of unsatisfactory quality, Good tobacco brought satisfactory prices, but low grades ·were difficult to sell at any price. The eastern North Carolina markets opened early in September and repeated the situation found earlier in South , Carolina. The demand for cigars and cigarettes in District No. (Philadelphia) apparently shm·;s !urtte.r imprvve:nent. urers in general report increa~ed sales since JLlne. cent cigars continue to be the best oellers. 3 Ci~ar manufact- Eight and ten Oporations are still less than at this· time last year but they are steadily increasing. FRtTIT. There was lit~le change in the condit:! on of the deciduous and citrus fruit crops during .August. year are the smallest in a generation. of apples was estimated at 107,000,000 The decid\~ous fruit crops this On Septemt1r 1 the production bushels~ as compared with a forecast of 109,000,000 bushels ori August 1, and an average production of 193,000,000 during the last six years. crop since 1890. This is the smallest apple The forecasted production of peaches was 33, 000, 000 bushels, a decline of 13,100,000 bushels from the average production of the years 1915 to 1920 inclusive. It is estimated that the pear . crop will amount to 9,475,000 bushels, as compared with 17,27:;,000 bushels. in 1920. The condition of the watermelon crop is the best of any crop planted this year, and is 121.7 per cent of its average -7- X-3210 condition during the last ten yearsw District No~ 6 (Atlanta) reports that there have been large yields of watermelons in Mississippi and Tennessee. The .Florida crop of citrus fruit is estimated to amount to 13,600, 000 boxes 1 as compared with 131 200, 000 boxes in 1920.. The · yield of grap-efruit in that state will be exceptionally large, ~vhile the crops of limes and tangerines ;will be below normal. GRAIN MOVEME~TS. Receipts of grain at primary markets were greater in August than in July and exceeded the receipts in any other month on record. This was due mainly to the large receipts of winter and spring wheat. Receipts of wheat at 1hnneapolis and Duluth during August totaled 21,911,320 bushels, as compared with 11,261 1 947 bushels in July and 9,297 1 300 bushels in August, 1920.. Wheat receipts at the four leading markets of District No. 10 (Kru1sas City) amounted to 29,955,300 bushels in August, as compared with 32,7 89 1 400 bushels- in July_, and 15,942) 000 bushels in A1.1g.ust, 1920. oats also showed large increases in Au~ust. Receipts of corn ru1d At Chicago 16 1 810,000 bushels of corn and 16 1 7221 000 bushels of oats were received during J\ugust 1 as compared with 81 954,000 bushels of corn and 101 722,000 bushels of oats in July~ The August movement of corn to the four leading ~arkets of District No. 10 (Kansas City) was 96.3 per cent greater than that a year ago 1 while the volume of oats marketed was 1920. 36.8 per cent larger than in August, Stocks of grain at interior centers also increased, except in' the case of corn. . stocks ~f Terminal elevators at Minneapolis and Duluth reported that :· grain and flax amcunted to 31,056,927 bushels on August 31 1 ·, 1921, . an increase of 47 per cent over the st.ocks on July • 30, 1921~ and an increase of about 670 per cent over the stocks reported on Aubust 31, X-3210 -8- 1920. Stocks of oats in these elevators have shown a particularly large increase and amounted to 21 1 567, ?59 bushels on August 31;· as compared with 151 9191 084 bushels on July 30 and 1)228,383 bushels on .Augu.st 31, 1920. FLOUR. Production of flour has been maintained at a high rate. The output of mills producing 75 per cent of the total production of District No. 9 (Minneapolis) during the four weeks ending August 27 was 2,289,335 barrels, an increase of 22 per cent over the output of 1, 871) 265 barrels during the four weeks ending July 3 0. Rep orting mills in District No. 10 (Kansas City) show an output of 2,482,618 barrels during August, which was 31 per cent greater than the July output of 1,902,527 barrels. Average production in District No. 12 (San Francisco) was 662 1 190 barrels for 70 millers as compared with _ 598,615 barrels for 72 millers in July. In considering these figures, it should be remembered however, that for the United States as a whole, ' average August production for the seven years 1914 - 1920 inclusive was 32.8 per cent in excess of July production. present year is ,however; 29 per cent in exc~ss The output during the of production during August 1920 in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) and 72 per cent greater irt District No. 10 (Kansas City). Flour shipments from Minneapolis and Duluth during August were 24 per cent greater than during July and 14 per cent greater than during August 1 1920,.V'l.hile August shipments from Kansas City were 29 per cent greater than during July, and 61 cent greater than in Aug,ust 1 1920. The milling situation in the .. southwect has very materially improved, while "the unanimous comraent p~::r: of twelve reporting mills" in District No. 6 (St. Lcuis)" "is that X-3210 -9- business during the past two months has undergone a marked change for the better". Export inquiry holds up excellently in that District~ and the demand for domestic consu..mpHon, especially frQm the South, has been better than at any time in more than a year. A moderate export movement of clears is reported in District No. 10 (Kanaas City), and a fairly heavy demand from nearly all sections of this country. 'iiheat flour prices were lower at the ope~ing of September than they ilere a month earlier, but subseq,lently in(:reased again. LIVE STOCK. Live stock on farms and ranges in general continues in good condition, although some sections in District No. 11 (Dallas) have been adversely affected by drought and heat. Movement to market has been very heavy, and efforts to hold it in check were not wholly satisfactory. Receipts of cattle and calves at 15 vv estern markets during August were 1,418,237 head, corresponding to an index number of 141, as compared with 940,173 head during July, corre.sponding to an index number of 93· Recetpts of sheep increased from 1,035,674 head during July to 1,56$,584 head during August 1 numbers are 76 and 115. The respective index Receipts of hogs hov.-ever decreased from 2,021 1 268 head during July} corresponding to an index number of 92, to lJ 919,514 head during August, corresponding to an index number of 87. The movement of cattle and calves and of sheep was, however, smaller than a year ago, although that of hogs was larger. receipts> of cattle and calves were 1,451,985 head, of hogs lJ 754}209 ·; head and of sheep 1,687, 787 head, while the respective ir.dex numbers were 144; 81 and 124. A feature of the situation, states District No. 10 ('Kansas City), is the dearth of geed corn fed cattle, and the -10- X-3210 greater volume of receipts have been light grass-fed stock. There is however a shortage of cattle in ti:le west and the delay in the feeder movement this year has resulted in a large number of good western cattle going to slaughter instead of back to the farms. In- crease of the feeder movement in August has been noted, and feeder shipments of cattle and calves from 34 markets increased from 120,429 head in_July to 353 .. 619 head in August, vihile shipments of sheep increased correspondingly from 138,414 head to 367,042 head. As a result of the heavy movement, cattle prices in general fell, and at Chicago even affected some of the corn fed grades of cattle. Similar changes were noted in the case of hogs and sheep. Thirteen rErporting packers in District No, 7 {Chicago) show decreases of 13.5 per cent in dollar sales in August as compared with July, and 35.2 per cent as compared with August, 19?.0, due in part to the decline in prices. A gradual improvement in the demand for fresh meats was in evidence in that District from the middle of .August to the middle of September., but some surplus found its way into the freezers. Wholesale prices ho\~ever in general declined. Stocks of fresh and cured meat• declined somew-what during August. ~. Production of bituminous coal increased somewhat during AugustJ but was still far under the normal figure for that month. It was 34,538,000 tons, corresponding to an index number of 93. as compared with 30~3941 000 tons, corresponding to an index number of 82. Compared with the average for the eight years preceding, 1921 production is 62,000,000 tons in arreacs and is steadily falling still further behind. Purchasing has increased somewhat in DiGtrict No. 3 {Philadelphia}.. but domestic buying continues to be almost entirely for spot coal. X-3210 -11Exr brt demand is reported very small. Retailers'- yards in Districts No. 5 (Richmond) and No. 6 (Atlanta) are well stocked, and consumers -have been slow in placing orders. District No. 7 An increase in the dem~~d for domestic sizes in (Chicago) is reported and the scale of operations in Illinois and Indiana has accor1ingly increased somevvhat. ditions in District No. 10 and dur~ng (K~~sas Operating con- City) show no material improvement, September there has been a further slow·ing down of operations. Although spot prices of certain grades have fluctua-r.ed considerably, the average price remains practically unchanged. Future quotations, states District No. 3 (P-hiladelphia) are much higher, but consumers sho;-; little interest in the contract market. During the past few weeks the consumer has displayed more interest in purchasing anth~acite Dem~•d coal. for the most popular size, stove coal> has increased to such an extent in District No. 3 (Philadelphia) that dealers are having difficulty in filling orders promptly. for other sizes have also increased. August production increased to 7,196,000 tons, as compared with r,050... 000 tons in July. index numbers are 97 and 95. Orders The respective The larger companies made the usual ten cents per ton advance on mine prices on September 1. Independent operatorsJ many of whom underbid the companies during the slack summer periodJ have again advanced quotationsJ which are now 10 to 40 cents per ton higher for prepared sizes than the company levels. The continued sluggishness of the small sizes, however 1 combined ••ith lack of storage facilities, has._ forced them to dispose of these grades at prices considerably lower than those of the companies. Some of the independent mines w nich were closep. on· account of the slack demand during the early part of .August, have lat~iy resumed operations. The output of beehive c=oke, although -ahow- ing an appreciable increase, is still less than 15 per cent of normal, but I x X-3210 -12the output of by-product coke is from 40 - 50 per cent of normal. Producers stocks have decreased as a rasul t of renevted demands from iron and steel manufacturers, and spot prices in District l•Jo. 3 (Philadelphia) have stiffened materially. E.'E.TRQ1E!IM. The decline in pet'roleum production which commenced in July continued at a somewhat accelerated rate during August. This was largely due to a marked curtailment in drilling operations. Demand for both crude and refined oils sho·Ned some improvement during August., but prices of most refined petroleum products continued to declir.:.e on account of the large stocks on hand. Prices of fuel oil, ha11ever, showed a slight increase during the early part of September. District No. 10 (Kansas City) reports that development operations have been curtailed in recent months to a point where fewer wells are nov• being drilled than at any other time in the last three years. Only 480 wells with an initial daily production of 69,787 barrels were completed in August, as compared with 640 wells with an initial daily production of 77,997 barrels in July. The total output of crude petroleum in Kansas and Oklahoma amounted to about 13, 000,000 barrels in August, as compared with 13., 598,000 barrels in July. Production of crude oil in District No. 11 (Dallas) totaled 10,538, g93 barrels during August., a decline o{ 127,453 in comparison with the July output. In this District only 223 ne~ wells with an initial daily production of 27,302 barrels were completed in .Aug·1.1st, as compared >>'ith 251 wells with an initi~ flow of 606 810 barrels in July. Average daily California production declined from 331,252 barrels in July. to 323,676 barrels in August, but consumption decreased even more and stored stocks at the end of the month therefore increased to 33,329,725 barr~ls Eighty-three new wells were completed, with an initial daily new production of 20, g95 barrels as compared ..-dth seventy-six new wells producing 19,675 barrels in July. -13- lpoN AND ST})£~. X-3210 After a continuous decline since October, pig iron proiuction showed an increase 'luring Aug-ns·t. that month arr~unted to July· 954,193 Tl:.e outnu.t during tons, as compared with 864,555 tons during T:r..e respecthye index numbers were in blast remained ~~changed. 41 and 37. The nurrbe:r of furnaces Steel ir.got production showed a smnewhat greater increase~ from 803,-376 tons to 1 1 138,071 tc..ns. index numbers were 35 and 49. 1920, This increase in The respective output was not however accorrroanied by a similar increase in orders for adv~~ced delivery,~as the unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation declined from 4,830,324 tons at tre close of July, corresponding to an index number of 92, to 4,531.926 tons at the close of August. corresponding to an index number of 86. There is now a generally stt'onger tone in the indv.stry. The improve- ment which made its arypeerance in Au@U.st has become somewhat more marked. This is notice8ble in the case both of pig iron and of certain finished ~roducts. The demand for pig iron has broadened to some extent and more interest is disp1a.._ved in contracting 'for future deliv'3ry. Total sales in Augu.st were the best of the year by a substantial margin and shipnents in an even greater proportion. 'Prices hardened considerably during the latter part of August after having dropped to low levels earlier in the month, and some Jnc.reases are reported during the p~esent month. Whereas the g-ain in steel wo:t"ks .August -pig iron T,>roduction was due 1?rinci,;:slly to the ~erations of/ stacks several merchant furnaces have heen blonrn in since the first of , -14- September. X-3210 The situation with respect to finished steel products however is still uneven and conditions are unsettled. Manu1'acturers of certain of the lig"hter products, notably wire and sheets, have booked considerable tonnage and have advanced prices. In othe:.." lines, however, particularly shapes and bars, further price reductio•1S h.::we be em made, and buyers in th8se lines still are unwilling to ATJT9~~_9~JLES. ~lace orders for fut~re delivery. August shipments of auto:rr:obile manufacturers showed some increase over the July figures. Carload shi~ments were 20,350 car- loads, as compared with 19,470 in J"u.ly and 23,386 in August, 1920. Drive- ways, however, decreased somewhat and were about half those in .August, 1920, and the same is true of 0oat shipments. Keen competition continues among manufacturers, and further cuts have been made on certain cars. In spite of those reductions, reports from representative manufacturers, it is stated from District No. 7, (Chica~o) seem to indicate that any increases in sales by individual manufacturers have been at the expense of other manufacturers, rather than a result of the develonment of new demand. ··The condition of truCk manufacturers has been less favorable than that of manufacturers of pa~senger cars. No. 4, (Cleveland) are at low Immediate orders, it is stated from District eb~, out inquiries have recently been in- creasing. NONFERROUS MET.ALSr There was a slight irnproveoent in the demand for nonferrous metals in the early part of Septemr,er. York, net refinery) was 11-7/8 cents T'.re price of copper (l~w ~er pour~d on September 14, as compared with ll-3/4 cents per po1md on September 1, while the price of lead at New York increased from 4.4 cents ~er p~xnd on September 1 to 4.6 cents ~r X-3210 pound on September 14. The demand for zinc continued to be very light and the price at District No. 8 (St. Louis) remained practically unchanged during the last month. Copner production in .Au.13Ust amounted to 20,019,000 yaunds, in comparison with in July. a production of 16,390,000 pounds There was a further curtailment of zinc tons in July to 14,621 tons in a considerable increass in Au~st. Au~st ~reduction from 15,495 Shipments of zinc, however, showed which resulted in reducing the sto~s on hand from 92,408 tons on .Au~ru.st 1 to s6 ,549 tons on August 31. This stock of zinc is not regarded as excessive, as it represents no more than three months 1 normal conSUJilption. Only about 3,000 :miners were work- ing underground in zinc and. lead mines of District No. 10 (Kansas City) at the end of Auwst, as compared with 12,000 to 15,000 1uring the years 1915 to 1917 incl,usive. The demand for both zinc and lead ores from that District continued to be restricted, but there was an advance of $2.50 per ton in the price of lead ore durinli! Au,~s t .. COTTON TEXTILES. The unexpectedly rapid advance in the price of. raw cotton has introduced such an element of uncertainty into all branches of the cotton textile industry that it has been "mark time" and to await developments. necessa~J for many interests to There appears to be a great difference I of opinion concerning the future consequently there is a ~neral chan~es cotton and unwillinmness to enter into contracts for future delivery based on present prices of cotton. As many mills have been carrying stocks which are below normal, they are not in a into new contracts unless account is taken of recent ~aw in the rr.arket for ~osition ~rice to enter increases. Dis- ' X-3210 tributors, on the other hand, fear that attempts to pass on price advances will cause undue restriction of demand on the "Oart of the consuming pub· lie. As a result, both distributors a.YJ.d manufacturers have in many instance,; withdrawn lines until a greater measure of stability in the cotton rrarket can be counted upon to afford a basis for safe calculation. Yarn prices have advanced with the increase in the price of the raw material and have been especially heavy in lon~ staple yarns. In tr.e yarn market likewise there are practically no future contracts being entered into.· No. In District 6. (Atlanta) reports from 34 representative yarn mills showed a decided. 3.d.vance in production during the m.cnth of Aurust of _14.4 -per cent as measured in pounds while totals were only g# 7 "Oer cent· below the figures for a year ago. Orders at the end of Aurust were 56.4 per cent above those on hand at the end of the preceding month while shipments during the month advanced 36.9 per cent. Thirty-three representative cotton cloth mills in the District were producing a yardage 7.2 ~r cent greater in Aurust than .in July, but the· figures were 39. g per 1920. cen~ below those for Purust Orders on hand at the end of August were 7.8 per cent aho'le those for the end of July. ln District No. 5 (Richmond) it was ~~orted at the date of writing that mills were running "on approximately full tirr.e 11 and that many of them had sold out their -products for several months ahead. In this District too, some of the textile mills, since the rise in the price of cotton, have withdrawn goods not previously contracted for and it rerr:ains to be seen ho ·· much bu,ving will be done When these fered at an advance in ,"Orice. fSOOds are of- The a'1'lount of raw cotton consumed during X-3210 August amounted to 467,103 bales as compared with 410,120 bales in July, The total amounted to w~s slightly below consumption of .Jlurrust 1920 which 483, 560 bales. the National Associ3.tion of J:j'inishers of Cotton Fabrics showed a large increase in the total gray yarda?-e of finishing orders received during the month. The output rose f!·om 82,734,438 yards to 101,741.412 yards. The total finished yards billed during Au!'?:u.st amounted to 95,915,235 as compared with 85.233,724. T'ne total averaf<e percenta!ee of capacity O"Oerated durinq the month of Au211st rose to 71 from a!·1 average of 62 in July. increase in the average work ahead at the end of the month was The s1i~t,amount- ing to 9~6 days as comparad with 8.9 at the end of July. WOOLEN TEX~·II.E~. The woolen industry in New England continues to maintain a high degree of activity and woolen and worsted mills are at about 80 uer cent of. cauacity at the ·nr~sent time. operating The rnbnthly consump- tion of wool which was on1y slightly above 12,000,000 pounds last December (grease equivalent basis) has risen to.about 35,000,000 pounds in the New England section. District No. 1 {Boston) reports that the Boston wool market n()or.. tinued to be moderately active during Sentember and ~rices naid for finer grades were firm". In District No. 3 (Philadelphia) carps t wools. because of the strike of carpet and ru~ lon~< inactive weavers, are now in demand. There X-3210 -18- has been some shift of demand from woolen to worsted goods and conse~uently production of the latter has increased ''Vhile there has been a slight falling off in the pr<tluction cf woolens. Du'!'licate orders for the heavy weight fall season of 1921 and b'zying for the sprinP-: of 1922 is at the present time much less active than it was earlier in the present season. The special inquiry into the clothing ind11~try which is made each month by District No. 7 (Chicago) indicates trat there was not much in general conditions during the month of Au~st. chan~ The nurfiber of suits made by reporting wholesale clothiers increased somewhat during August as compared with July and was·-.about e(1Ual to the output during Au,QU.st 1920 except in the case of one concern which showed a large increase. firms re~resenting The 13 reporting tailors-to-the-trade showed an output for August substan~ tially the same as for July a1 though the number of suits made during the month was 42.8 per cent below the totals for August 1920. Replies to questionnaires sent to 23 leading clothing firms by District No. 6 (St. Louis) indicated a fairly steady improvement in demand. The reporting establishments in that District were stated to be sold up for the next two months with excellent innuiry for fall and winter goods, and marked improvement in orders from the south for the fall. SILK. The silk industry in the Paterson and North Hudson section showed lessened activity during the two weeks en1ing September 12 as compared with tbe preceding period of two weeks. In the Nortb Hudson section 2,848 looms were pro'iucing out of a total of 4,670 '"':rich was a slight increase over the number re-oorted for the previous two weeks• period of :..19- X-3210 2,812. but the percentage of loom hours to the total possible ·~as only 47.1 per cent as compared with 60:3 "9er cent during the preceding period. Only 4,002 out of a total of 15,000 looms were ~reducing in Paterson, a drop from 4,447 for the preceding two weeks. The percentage of loom 'hours also fell from 27.5 per cent to 22.9 per cent. District No. 3 (Philadelphia) reports a falling off in dewand for broad silk and silk rib~ons. Mills in the District state that ~reduction is still curtailed and they are operating at about 70 to some firms say that stocks are 11 85 per cent of capacity. gradually accumulating". Even so, It is said that "conditions prevailing in the si)Jt goods trade are reflected in the thrown silk ma.rket~ Operations have been reduced by many throwsters to only 50 per cent of capacity. Prices remain at about the same level as last month, but they are considerably lower than were those of 1920. 11 There is little de- mand for raw silk at the ~rBsent time but hoth consumption and imports showed a m~rked increase as compared with August a year ago. In Au~st of last year, imports of raw silk amounted to 16,106 bales, and consumption to 17,241 bales, while tris year imports totaled 33,823 bales, and consumption 32,790 bales. HOSlli:RY AND UNDERWEAR. Business in knit goods lines and in hosiel"'J has felt seriously the effect of the rise in the price of cotton yarns. District No. 3 (Phila.del-;hia) states that activity in cotton and mercerized hosiery has come almost to a standstill while conditions in the underwza.r trade nc..re such as to force the lT'ajority of manufacturers into the position of me.re on-lookers waiting for a stabilization in nrices. 11 The business in silk hosiery continues to be good and mills makinp, full fashioned hosiery X-3210 -20in District No. 3 (P'niladelphia) are runnins at full ca:9aci ty. August, 25 firms selling to the wholesale trade stated that there wae an increase of and of During 14 .. 2 per cent in -product manufactured as compared with July 31.7 per cent as com?ared with August 1920. Orders booked during Au?Ust were, however, 31.9 per cent below those for July although 56.1 per cent in excess of those received during at the end of .llu~st I'ITere Au~st 1920. Unfilled orders 17.1 per cent less than at the end of July but 24.4 per cent above those of August 1920. In the case of nine firms selling to the retail trade the product manufactured declined slightly during August by 0.4 per cent as compared with July, orders booked were 38.4 :per cent less during Jl.uP_Ust; unfilled orders on hand declined 23.9 per cent and were 26.1 per cent below those for the end of August 1920. The reports received from 41 members of the Knit Goods Manufacturers of .Amer- ica engaged in producin? underwear, showed subst2.ntial output durin~ August as compared with July. dozens in July had an output of per cent. im-~)rovement Mills producing in 255,829 279t600 dozens in August, a gain of 9 Unfilled orders the first of July amounted to 372,514 dozens and had risen to 395,902 dozens on August first or 6 per cent. New orders rose from 2}8 ,258 dozens in July to 444,243 dozens in August, or 9 per cent. in Augu~t Shipments also increased from or 5 per cent. 233,972 in July to 360,787 X-3210 -21- SHOJ!:S -~ND LE.~-~THER. Prices of green hides registered little change durin~ the first three weeks of September. Lamb Skins have increased some- what in i)rice, wrile calf skins have shown "'- slight decline. Production of green cattle hides increased during Au~st, but showed a moderate decline in the early part of September. 7 District No. (~icago) reverts that trad- ing in packer hides has been very active at Chicc.go, whereas the rrarliet for country hides has been very quiet. Tanneri8s in District No. 7 (Chicago) report an increase in volurne of sales of leather during the first two wee:.rs of September. between 75 and O'perations of u-'1·;er leather tanneries on September 10 were 80 ·1er cent of normal. District No. 3 (l?hil.e.del-r?hia) states that upper leathers were less active in Sentember than August. however, has been in P-:Ood Sole leather, rierr.and, and there has been a substantial increase There has been a slight iM~rovement in in orders from the re"9air trade. sales of belting leather, but no price chanq:es have been reported. The activity of the boot and shoe industry contilllled to incrG<:-se during A.uc:ust for the ninth successive month. The August ~reduction of nine l2ading shoe manufacturers in District No. 1 (Boston) 'Nas 13.4 per cent greater tioan in July, while shi:'9ffients increased what ::luring 1920. Au~st, 27.5 ~)er cent. Unfilled orders declined sorr:e-· but the volu.'11e of new orders was larger ttan in A.urust, Shipments by eleven re"!)ortin!r manufacturers in District No. 3 (St. Louis) during A.urust ramr,ed from 20 to 40 1Jer cent larr:rer t1~an in Aurust, , 1920. Four of the largest interests in that District ar3 now producing more goods than at any time in the past. .~ue>Ust No. 7 (Chicago) produced in and 15.9 per cent more shoes than in Fourteen manufacturers in District 19.5 per cent more shoes than Au~st, 1920. in July, Shipments by these manufacturers were 24, 7 ~reater than in July, and 34 .. 5·"'per cent &rr2ater than in August, 1920. ./\11 Chicago factori~s ·re-port an im:nroverrent in the demand for men's shoes, but some recession in th~ demand for wo~en 1 s shoes. -22LUMBER. X-3210 Reports from the several lwrber districts indicate • improving conditions lumber trade. ~nd a more optireistic attitude generally in the District No- 12 (S~n Francisco) reports that there has been some imrrovement in the District for upper grades of Douglas fir during September; spot prices of C~lifornia redwood, white pine and sugar pine have remained stationar.r or receded. in ~hat District report a cut of 35~,233,000 Four lumber "associations feet for the four weeks ending Pugust 27, which was 81 per cent greater than during the four weeKs ending July 30. New orders increased from' 263,416,000 feet in July to 331,31h,000 feet in August. About 75 per cent of the lumber mills capacity ' in the Pacific Northwest. eni 6o per cent in the Inland Empire is reported as heing in opention, while loeging operations are only 4o per cent of nonnal. In District No. 11 (Dalles) in derr"!nd in Pu~ust. 3h pine mills report an improverrent Orders received by these mills ;iurin& the month were 88 per cent of the normal monthly production while orders booked during July reprexented but 66 per cent of the nonnal monthly production. Orders received from r<>ilw~ys greater proportion of this for car repair materials account for the In District No. 6 (Ptlanta) 130 mills, incre~se. members of the Southern Pine Association, report orders received during .ftugust to be 5·7 per cent ./lctuel production was normal. gre~ter th~n the normal production of these mills • E7 ,7c~,786 feet, aprroximately 24.3 J)er cent less than The shipnents showed an increase each week and totaled 7'8, 454.426 feet for the month, which is but 9·7 per cent below normal production. This District reports the reopening of some mills which had been closed durin!? July. Present -rrices ere rruch lower tht'in those which prevailed a yeer efo, but the rrarket is reported to be considerably stronger th~n it was • -23during July. X-3210 District No. 8 (St. Lon is) reports an increasing derra.nd for yellow pine, but a q_uiet hardwood market. Production of hardwood remeins at a very lo•.v level due to low prices and the present high freight In District No. 9 {'Minne:>polis) the reported .flu~_ust lumber cut fflet totaled 12,549,909/w~ich was about 5 per cent less then in July which rates. wes 56 per cent less th:m in ~U!2Utlt of last yet::J r. The stacks of lumber manufactureres showed less than one per cent decreasre from the total at the close of July, and a 29 per cent increase over the stocks on nana on August 31, 1920. Lumber shipments in this District durin~ August increased 24 per cent over the July figure in contrast with declines in August shipments in both 1919 and 1920. BUitDI~G. The total value of contracts awarded, (compiled by the F. W. Dodge Co.) indicate an increese during .August as comrared with July, and as compared with .August of last year. Four of the seven Districts for which contrect fisures are available show a considerable increase over July, while Districts No. 4 ¢Cleveland) and No. 9 (Minneapolis) show decided decreases. Contracts awarded during ftugust in District No. 1 (Boston) amounted to $19,276,295 as compared with ~19,298,334 durin? ~uly, .About $6,702,583 of this total was for res- idential purposes, as compared with $6,672,758 during July. In District No~ 2 (New York) contrac.ts awarded t.ot:'lled $62,043,905 as conrrared with July contract fieures of ~54,500,566, and residential building amounted to $3f;,061,717 as compared with ~22,54f,l42 during July. Contracts for District No. 3 {Philadel~hia) amounted to $22,350,5CO as com~ared with $13J563Jl00 during July. Of this tot~l, $5,331,500 was for residential 1c.·~·rlf ,. )L~::'-• X-3210 · -24building as co~ared with $2,971,900 during July. In District No. 4 (Cleveland) total contracts fo:r Pugust were $26,665,555 in comparison 'IV'ith ~35,669,377 for Ju+y. Of tr.ese, resid.entiel"contracts amounted to $8,209,645. in CC'mparison with ~8.319,248 during July. Total con- tracts for District No. 5 (W.ch;:lonG.) tnta.led $17,337, 62l~ during August as compared with $16,026,969 duri"lg July. to $5,938,417 trict No. 7 in Au~st as comp~red with Resl.dential building amounted $5,335,545 in July. In Dis~ (Chicago} total contracts awarded amounted to $44.680,034 during llu~st in corr:pa.rison with t41,113;866 during July, and residential building amounted to ~~-0, D2 4, 029 in corr.pari son with $7,382,427 during Contracts for Distriet No. S~(l.iinnea:polis) tota.lP-d 1:9,173,552 in July. August as compared with ~12,651,00"( in July. Of this arr.ount, ~,975,503 was for residential pl.lrp:)ses as compared with $3,758:504 in July. In District No., 2 (New York) 8,188 permits were issued during August valued at ~55~534,223 as cor11pared with 5,071 perrilits '\talued at $35 ~952 ,930 du.ring August ,1920. Permits granted in 19 cities of District No. 7 (Chi&ago) numbered 6,157 v.e~lned a.t $25,578)330 a.s con:pared with 5,346 permits valu~d at il5,~39,0"T7 granted during the corresponding month of last year. The munber and val uo.tion cf building permits issued during flugust in 9 cities of District No. 9 (M'inn13apolis) increased 27 . and 34 per cent respectively, as compared with the July fi~ures • In the Districts for which no contract fi~ures are prepal;"ed, }')is trict . ; Ng 6 (Atlanta) reports the nurr~er of permits grcnted in 14 cities during August totaled 3,437 valued at ~5.304~592 as comparad with 2,007 pennits valued at $4,057,181 gr-anted during ~ugust, 1920. In four cities of Dis- trict No. 8 (St. Louis) 1971 permits valued at t),325,79l were issued - -25- X- 3210 during .August in comparison with 1,302 nerm.its valued at $2,751,677 issued during the corresponding month of 1920. of District No. 10 (Kansas City) for .Aug.ust show Reports from 16 cities rt gain of 54 .. 6 par cent in the number of permits granted and 93-6 per cent in the estimated cost as compared with .August, 1920. This is the la.r·gest percentage of gain that has been shown in any month this ye13·; over the corresponding month last · year. In nine cities of DiRtrict No. 11 (Dallas) 2,el4 permits valued at <t:6.4ol,268 were issued d1.:ring .1\ugust in comparison ·nith 1,548 permits valued at ~2,950,694 issued d'lring AuguE..'t, 1920. The value of building permits for 20 cities of District No. 12 {San Frencisco) amounted to $17,126,365 in .August as corepared with ~15,030,736 in llu;mst of last· year. and the number issued increased from 7~ 577 to 10" Ogb. EMPLOYMENT. There were no noteworthy changes in the errployment situation during the rronth of .August, the "Deriod covered by the latest report of the United States Department of tabor. Decre~ses were recorded in five of the fourteen reporting industries but it is noticeable that in two of these five industriest namely, woolen textile and cigar manufacturing, the number employed in ./lugust were 114 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively above those employed during Aufust 1920. while in the case of the silk industry ' the emrloyment figures were only 2.2 per cent below those given for a year ago. There was an increase of 4.9 per cent in numbers employed in the iron "'nd stea'; in1ustry during the month as compared with the July figures. On the other hand. there was a slight deeline for bituminous coal ITinin~ of 1.6 per cent. ' The speeial report on employment conditions which. is regularly made by District No. 7 (Chicago) covers 237 manufacturing concerns employing at the present time 138,237 men. 1CD6 -26- X-3210 The employment in these factories increased 1-4 per cent in ~ugust for the District as a whole ·and 1.2 per cent for the establishments located in Chicago. These figures co~1cide very closely with those for the gen- eral survey of the Department of Labor which showed an increase of 1.08 :per cent in numbers eTI!T1l('lyed for the indust:t"ies covered. District No. 8 (St. Louis) likewise mvd.e s;pecia.l inquir;J in regard to the employ-- ment conditions in the 21 largest cities of that District, and reports thE~t in establishments with a nornal complement of 215,784 workers, numbers employed August 1, 1921 were as COlJ1Ila.red with .August 1, 1920. 165~874, a decreese of 21.3 per cent Reports made by various state depart- ments of labor indicate a slight improvement in conditions during tbe month of .August. In rennsy.lvm1ia, the State mates that unemployment· tewn, 'Philadelphia, i~ D~partment of Labor esti- the six cities of Alto?na, Harrisburg, Scr~nton John~ and WilliaiWport has steadily declined since August 15, the figures for September 15 of numbers employed being 3.8 :per cent below those of Au12uc:;t 31 which in turn were 2.5 per cent under ~ugust returns for 15. In District No. 5 (Ricbmorid) co~ditions were re- ported to be less favorable for '-"T.lcskilled workers but 1;.h9y .bad improved in the building trades, the textile mills and in strike in the mills around Charlotte .h~s a resumption of act:i.vity in tlwt region. railro~d· work~· The been settled end there·. has .been In Dist~~ict No. 10 (Ksnsas City) operating conditions in the mining sections showed no material improvement.. ~ survey- of labor conditions disclosed the feet that in Missouri in the zinc and le~d minin~ districts 11 there were only 270 miners working underground, while there were 800 in Kansas and 2,200 in Oklahoma., a total of sli~htly ~ver 3,000 men, es compared with 12.000 to 15,000 X-3210 -27 1915 to 1917. There were but 35 mills working out during the periodnof of 208 in the District, which is another criterion of the inactivity now prevailinF. in the zinc industry es co!llT'ared with previous years." Although in District No. 12 (san Francisco) there hes been a slight increase in e~ ployment in Oregon Bnd Washington due to seasonal aetiv.ities and public work, the situation 1~ c~Hfornii'!l. workers from outside points. unemployed in that state. has become aggravated by an influx of Reports indicate that about 45,0CO are There has been no increase in the activity in the metal mining in Prizona, Nevada, and Utah, but nevertheless· some decrease in unemployment has resulted from greater building activity and increased work on public improverr.ents tmd for railroads. 1 ~1HOtESHE rrR.ADE. Sales of re:rortin~ wholessle firms in three lines, hardware, dry goods end boots and shoes, showed Pn ust as compared with July·for every District. avera.~e advance in .Aug- Increases in wholesale gro- eery sales also occurred in District No. 3 (Philadelphia), NQ 6 (Atlanta), No.7 (Chicago), and No. 11 (Dallas). In District No. 5 (Richmcd), Dis- trict No. 10 (Kansas City) end District No. 12 (San Francisco), however, decreases were recorded amounting to 0.4 per cent with eieht firms reporting, 7.2 per cent, with four firms -reportin~ and 9•8 per cent with twenty- nine firms reporting, for the respective Districts. Apparently the need of replenishing retail stocks allowed to run down during the summer largely explains the increases in grocer.y sales. District No. 3 (Philadelphia) with an increase of 10.4 per cent for forty-eight reporting grocery firms states that there is comparatively little tendency to buy for the future, and this testimony is corroborated by similer st~tenents from other Districts~ rr:'he fell de!T'end for dry goods and boots and shoes bas resulted in especially heavy advances in these two lines. In three Districts, namely, District • . :1;--, . 0 ~ c~_)o X-3210 -28- No. 5 {Richmond)w No. 9 (MinnMpolis), and No~ 11 (Dallas) there were increases in dry ~oods sales. in excess of 50 per cent, . ran~in~ from 50.6 per cent for District tlo. 5 (Ric:b..rhond), with eight finns reporting,· to ... 5442 per cent fer District No. ll (D~llas) with eight finns reportinp. In District No. 7 (~hicago), wHh six finns reporting., dry goods sales increased 43.1 per cent-and in District No. 6 (Atlanta.), 45·5 per cent, eighteen finns reporting. The mini~~ increase occurred in District No. 12 (San Franci-sco), with ten firms, recording an advance of 29.0 per cent. In the case of boots and shoes, f9Ur ~eporting Districts~ No. 5 (Richmond), No. 6 (.Atlante), No. 7 {Chicago) and No. 12 (San l!'rancisco) showed increases ranging from 29.8 per cent for thirteen reporting fir.ms in District No. 12 (Sam Francispo) to 84.3 per cent for the eight reporting firms in D"istrict No. 5 (Richmond). The increa~~s in sales of wholesale hardware have been much less pronounced, the i~ ~~imum advance being 3.1 per cent for 25 firms District No. 3 (Philadelphia.), the maximum 18.4 per cent far eleven fir.ms in District No. 11 (Dallas). Notwithstanding these heavy seasonal increases in sales, sales expressed in terms of value are sti·11 far below the figures for Jlugust 1920, althol.lgh in the majority of cases, the volume of sales compares favorablywith the returns for a,year ago, generally being as large or in some instPnces larger then in Jlugust 1920 except in the case of hardware lines. Caution in placinr- orders and un- willingness to make extensive cornmittments for the future continue to characterize the attitude of the retailer, despite the fact of general improvement in current business. ~~It ~R~DE. The value of sales for retail trade in ftugust continued to be less th"'n last yer>r. The fact tr..at price reductions have been • 10D9 X-3210 -29- relatively greater thPn·reductions in value of sales would seem to indicate that the in August 1920- p~sical 1he commodities which seem to be selling best are fum- i ture, knitting yarns, departme~t • vnlume of retail trade was actually larger than and cotton piece goo:is. .AU@ust reports for 330 stores throughout the. United States show a moderate improve- ment over those for July. cent less than ~n Average sales for these stores were 11.9 per August 1920 whereas average sales for July were 15.1 per cent less than in July 1920~ The improvement seems to be mostly confined to the e~st,. as District No. 7 (Chicag~) and No. 11 (Dallas) show a decrease from last month and other western Districts still show a lar~e decrease compared with last year. Reports of these 330 repre- sentative department stores show a decrease from .August 1920 amounting to 4.5 per cent in District No. 1 (Boston), 5~2 per cent in ~istrict No. 2 (New York)", 4~0 per cent in District No. 3 (Philadelph~a) 21.0 per cent in District No. 4 (Cleveland), 5 (Richmond), 9~8 per cent in District No. 31.3 per cent in District No. 6 (Atle.ntP), 18.8 per cent in District No.7 (Chicago), 11.7 per cent in District No. 8 (St. Louis), . . 11.0 per cent in District No. 9 (Minneapolis), 8.9 per cent in District No • 10 (Kansas City), 23 ·3 per cent in District No. 11 (Dallas) t and 6.2 per cent in District No. 12 (San Francisco). The stocks on hand at the end of August were very much lower than a year ago but were slightly greater than at the end of July. ~e rate of stock tu~over little although it shows a slight tendency to decline. has changed Orders in Auwust continued at about the same high level as in July. ~RICES. During the first three weeks of September. prices of most basic commodities advanced or showed little ch~nge from the August level. • ... reve~e, In the case of livestock the tendency was the hogs showing partie- ull3.r weakness, but certain other agricultural comnodities such as cotton. wheat, oats end wool advanced, The 50 per cent increase in the price of cotton during the course of the month led t'o large nominal advances in yarn and cloth prices and stirm:';r:tt~~d demand for allied commodities. the woolen industry, raw materia)s we~e In firm and showed a tendency to ad- vance in the middle of the month, while yam and cloth prices in general remained unchanged. prices. No important fluctuations occurred in. hide and leather The September quotations are approximately the same as those for Aup us t. Pricew of pig iron are slightly higher than a month ago while sendfinished steel products with some exceptions are lower. Large price cuts . in the steel industry, however, appear to have come to a haltnonferrous metals advanced during the month. Prices of. No important change~ occurred in the prices of building materials while there was a hardening tendency in anthracite coal end oil prices. Wholesale index numbers arG not yet available for September, but the August figures for all comrrodities show small increases over the July averages~ The index number of the Fe.dera.l Reserve Board, constructed primarily for international comparisons and corr~uted with prices in an average of 143 in .August as compared with 141 in July. ant increases occurred in consumers were registered in producers 1 t as 100, gives The most import- or highly matl.i.:factu~ed goods. or semi-finished remained pre.ctice.lly unchanged. 1913 Decreases goods, while raw materials Retail prices of foods continued to e.dvancet the index number of the Bureau of L~.bor Statistics for .August showing an·· increB.s·e of approxim~tely 5 per cent over July .. ~. . • X-3210 -31- SHIPPING. Durin9 amount of cer~o Sept~~ber sowe improvewent was .noticeable in the offered for shinrr.ent to foreign parts.. The available steam tonnage remains, however., greatly in excess of shippers 1 require- mentss with the result that ocet>n frei§'ht rates continued merely steady and substentially unch<>n;'ed from the levels ·Nhich were reached last June. An important factor contributinc; toward the steadiness of rates in recent weeks hs.s been the lar€e volume of frain shi-pped throughout the sun:mer, thus keeping many ships in consttnt service. CN,ners of vessels are able to do little mare than meet expenses 'Vith rates at current levels, and in many cases have :9referr~d such partial cargoes as have to J.ay·u:p their ships rather than accept offered~ The reluctance of shipowners to enter into contracts at a time when the outlook for profits is by no means bright ~nd tre chances for loss in making a voyage are consider- able; expla.ins also why the decline in ocean freight rates has not proceeded further. FOREIGN TRPDE. The value of our foreign trade in Aueust is reported as ~375.000.000 for exports and $194,ooo,oco for imports. leaving an export balance of ~181,000,000, which was only partil"'lly offset by net im:portAtions of gold to the amount of $66?000,000. imports 8nd exports show geins over ant month since March. J~ly, The values of both exports being higher than in Comparisons between the ~onths of this year and similar periods last year are apt to be misleading on account of the far hi~her level of prices which then prevailed, so thet wr~le the reported value of exports in the last few months has been ?nly half as much as in the same months of 1920, the volume of exports stated in terms b~s actually ~een greater than A ye8r a~o. quantitative This meens that the X-3210 -32- prices upon which the export va.ltlati':lu~ ere besed have declined more rap- idly then have exports stA.ted in te:rrrs of dollal"s. In substantiation of these facts it may be pointed cet thet the Boar& 's forei@n trade index, in which the effects of price cLen;,.:e:; bave been el:iminat;ed, stands at 112.5 for exports in July, 1921, corr,pf'\rad ·vith :!..01.3 in July, 1920, and a monthly average during 1920 of 107 •7. The ind.8x. m~m1)er for July, 1913, is 70.6, the 1913 monthly avera.ge be1ng 100.. ~~he conclasion is therefore to be drawn that in volume our export t~ade is now larger than in 1920 or in the months shortly preceding the war.