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X-..$192
FEDERAL RESERVE
BOARD
STATEMEN~ FOR THE PRESS
For Release in Morning Papers1
Thursday, September1 11 1921.
The following is a vreview of general business and
financial conditions throughout the several Federal
Reserve Districts during the month of August, as
contained in the forthcoming issue of the Federal
Reserve Bulletin.
Heavy movement of agricultural products to market has been the outstanding economic activity of the country during the month of August.
There has been a tendency to unusually early marketing and the revival
of fair export demand in certain agricultural lines has operated to
hasten the movement of crops away from the farm.
Deterioration of
some elements of the agricultural output, notably cotton has tended
to modify the previously existing agricultural outlook.
Readjustment
of costs in many agricultural lines is approaching a point where it is
probable that 1 even at present prices, some crops will show good returns.
This early movement of crops to market has resulted in the liquidation
of some outstanding indebtedness even in Districts where the carry-over
from last year's crop was greatest.
As a result it has lessened .the
intensity of the credit demands which might otherwise be expected to occur
during the marketing season.
This has enabled member banks in not a
few places to strengthen their position and to lessen their obligations
to Federal Reserve Banks.
These factors have on the whole been favorable
to .Pthe general credit situation) and rates of interest have been
moderate.
(""'~ r-o:·
()
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X-3192
- 2 -
The manufacturing outlook continues to be decidedly irregular
and "spotty" due to the fact that there has bean greater progress
in some lines than in
others~
The decline in iron and steel activity
continues although some increase in orders has taken place since the
end of July.
In various textile and leather lines business continues
to show indications of much greater activity~many mills being "booked
up" further ahead than at any time for many months past.
It is true
that July production showed a falling off in some lines especially
certain branches of the textile industry, a factor attributed to
seasonal dullness, but future orders are almost uniformly reported
as very p·romising.
Flour milling, as a result of heavy wheat move-
ment has likewise been exceptionally active.
Little improvement
has been mnoted in machine industries and in the engineering
Businesses which consume
non-f~rrous
trades~
metals have been notably inactive.
Price movements have been on the whole limited., but with >.a slight
upward tendency in the case of some groups.
The Federal Reserve Board
index prepared for international comparisons shows an increase of two
points to 141.
for July was
The index number of the Bureau of Labor-Statistics
148~
the same as during June.
The current price reports
for the early part of August indicate if anything, a strengthening
of prices in some lines.
A striking factor in the developments of the past month has
been afforded by the shrinkage in retail trade.
During most
periods of business transition such shrinkage nas been somewhat belated.
C'\.t"'J0
v
r
X-3192
- 3Postponement of reduction in retail activity is due to the fact
that a curtailment of consumption usually takes place only when
accumulated purchasing power is reduced.
During the past
year the maintenance ot the activity of retail trade has been
noteworthy, and only during the past few weeks has a reduction
paralleling the falling off previously noted in manufacturing
been observed.
The fact that advance orders are being undoubtedly
placed owing to exhaustion of stocks is reflected in an improvement in the wholesale dry goods trade during July.
A
tendency
towards closer adjustment of retail to wholesale prices is also
noted although there are still many outstanding discrepancies.
Large
fi~res
for unemployment have been transmitted to
Congress) but it should be remembered that these figures are
based on comparisons with peak periods of employment in 1920.
There are indications of increasing employment in various
manufacturing industries, but taken as a whole the employment
situtation for the month of August appears to show but little
change from the preceding month ..
Slight improvement in
so~e
branches of foreign trade 1 fairly
good agricultural yields and enlargement of manufacturing demand
seem to point to a more favorable autumn season1 but the situation
is not such as to forecast any extensive or immediate reviv.al
of business in a large sense.
<:_.)\)
X-3192
- 4 AGRICULTURE:
Weather conditions during July resulted in a serious
deterior~tion
of crops throughout the United States.
The composite
condition of all crops on August l was 93 per cent of their average
condition on that date during the last ten years, as compared with a
composite condition of 96.4 per cent on July 1.
tion of wheat on August 1 amounted to
757 ,000,000
The indicated producbushels, which is
52,000,000 bushels less than the fotecast on July 1 and 67,000,000
bushels less than the average production for the past six years.
The
wheat crop is estimated to be unusually large throughout the Pacific
Northwest, and in the States of Kansas and Nebraska, but is below the
average for the years 1915 to 1920 in all other States.
There was some
deterioration of the corn crop during July, but the estimate of produc. tion on August 1 was 3,0)2,000,000 bushels, which is about 162,000,000
bushels greater than the average production in the last six years.
The
estimates of corn production in the States of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, Kentucky and Minnesota on August 1 were considerably lower than
on July 1, but this was partly counterbalanced by increases in the
estimates for Oklahoma, Kansas and Mississippi.
Reports from District
No. 8 (St. Louis) state that recent rains have been of cincalculable
benefit to the corn crop.
The oats crop suffered more serious damage
in July than any other grain crop 1 and the estimated production on
August 1 was only 1,137,000,000 bushels, as compared with an actual
production of 1,526,000,000 bushels in 1920, and an average production
of 1,433,000,000 buShels for the years 1915 to 1919.
The crop was muCh
damaged by green bugs and by rains during the period of threshing.
The production of sugar beets was estimated on Augu.st 1 to amount to
8,000,000 tons which is 550,000 tons lower than in 1920, but 1, 780,000
- 5
tans greater than the average production for the years 1915 to 19194
District No. 6 (Atlanta) states that the sugar cane crop is in good
condition and estimates that 549.900 acres were planted to cane in 1921,
as compared with 505,200 acres in 1920.
The white potato crop deteriorated
seriously during July and the production forecasted on August 1 was only
316JOOO,OOO bushels, as compared with a production of 428,000,000 bushels
in 1920 and an average production of 371,000,000 during the pre·'1ious five
years.
COTTON:
The cotton crop showed some further deterioration during
July and the early part of Augu.st, as a result of excessive moisture,
which caused
On
~st
and encouraged the activities of the boll
weevil~
July 2? the condition of the United States cotton crop was 64.7 per
cent of a full normal, ·as compared with 69.2 per cent on June 25, 1921,
. and 74.1 per cent on July 25, 1920.
The estimated total cotton producbased on estimates of July 25~
tion/is 8,203,000 bales which is 5,16),000 bales less than the production
in 1920, and is the smallest cotton outtu:rn since 1895·
District No. 5
(Richmond) states that the cotton crop in South Carolina, except in the
Piedmont counties, has been seriously damaged by rain and the ravages of
the boll weevil, whereas the crops of Virginia and North Carolina are
in reasonably good condition.
The boll weevil is active in practically
every part of District No. 6 (Atlanta).
The season is about twoW9eks
..
late in Georgia and Louisiana and the crop is undersized wherever
fertilizer has not been used.
In
Dis~rict
No. 11 (Dallas) there has
been a rather serious deterioration in the cotton plant, as a result
of hot, dry weather in certain sections and of extensive depredations
of the boll weevil in other localities.
District No. 8 (St. Louis)
reports that the cotton plant is fruiting, but in many sections is showing the lack of fertilizers on thin soils.
X-3192'
- 6TOBACCO:
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A further decrease in the condition of tobacco is reported,
and consequently a lower indicated yield.
The condition of the crop on
August 1 was 66.6 per cent as compared with 71.9 per ~ent on July l and
79.1 per cent for the August 1 ten year average conditionyield has accordingly declined from 932,000,000 pounds
pounds.
The estimated
to 889,000,000
The Pennsylvania crop of cigar tobacco suffered a material
setback in July, as did also the Ohio crop, the condition in the two
sections declining respectively from July 1 to August 1 from 84 to 76
per cent ..
and from 76 to 57f In the case of the manufactured and export types
of tobacco, the Virginia crop has been seriously damaged by dry weather,
but tobacco in District No. 8 (St. Louis) "in the immediate past has
responded to the mo.re favorable weather conditions."
The Burley crop has
been severely damaged by drought, but there is still mu.ch of the crop
that will make a fair yield if given good weather.
The South Carolina
markets opened shortly after the middle of July, but most of the early
offerings were of low grade and prices offered were unsatisfactory to
producers.
The monthly average price paid was only 8 cents per pound
as against an average of 22.4 cents in July last year.
It appears,
however, that there is a fairly active demand for good tobacco and at
satisfactory prices.
In District No. 3 (Philadelphia) the demand for cigars and cigarettes
appears to be improving.
The opinion seems to be quite general that
there has been a further improvement in the ind.ustr7 in Augu.st. Operations,
though less than at this time last year, are steadily increasing. Finished
stocks which manufacturers may have had some months ago have been largely
disposed of, but there is a determination in the industry to adjust operations so tnat any accumulation in the future will be impossible.
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- 7FRUIT:
citrus and
There was some improven:ent in the condition of both the
deciduou~
fruit crops during July.
On August 1 the production
of apples was estimated at 103,000,000 bushels, as compared with a. forecast of 104,000,000 bushels on July l and an actual yield of 244,000,000
bushels in 1920.
District No.
6
(Atlanta) states that shipments of both
peaches and watermelons from Georgia during 1921 have exceeded the records
of all pre•ious years.
The Florida citrus crops are developing well,
except on the lower east coast, \vhich is suffering from drought..
Reports
indicate that crops of peaches and pears in District No. 12 (San Francisco)
will be somewhat smaller in 1921 than in 1920, but that the apple crop
will be larger.
There has recently been an increased demand for canned
fruit, but it is estimated that the 1921 pack of California fruit canneries
will be
35 per cent less
than that of 1920.
Shipments of citrus fruits
from California. amounted to 5,308 cars in July, as compared with 1,858
cars in June, while shipments of deciduous fruits from that State totaled.
3, 439 cars in July, as compared with 2, 200 cars in June.
·-
GRAIN MOVEMENTS:
Receipts of grain at primacy marlrets during July
were much higher than in June, and were in fact larger than in any month
since Se:ptember, 1919.
This was chiefly due to the exceptionally large
wheat receipts a.t Kansas City, Chicago, St. Louis, Omaha and Wichita.
Wheat receipts at the four leading markets of District No. 10 (Kansas City)
in July were over 30 per cent greater than in the largest previous month
on record, and amounted to 32,789, 4oo bushels in comparison with 11,034,
400 bushels received in June and 12,001,650 bushels received in July, 1920.
Receipts of wheat at Chicago totaled 14,070,000 bushels in July, as compared
'with 2,511,000 bushels in Jure and 2,562,000 bushels in July, 1920.
Wheat receipts at Minneapolis and Duluth, however, only amounted t"''
X-3192
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11,261,947 bushels in July, as compared with 12,599,842 bushels in June
and 9,817,057 bushels in July, 1920.
The total receipts of corn, oats,
and barley at these two cen-ters were considerably smaller in July than
in June, but were almost t·.vice as great as the receipts in July, 1920.
In the four leading centers of District No. 10 (Kansas City) corn receipts
were materially larger in July, 1921 than in July, 1920, but there was a
slight decline ln the receipts of oats and barley.
Stocks of grain and
flax in term:tnal elevators at Minneapolis and·Duluth amo'Uilted to 21,098,-
788 bushels on
.:hJ~Y
31, a decrease of 3.6 per cent from the stocks on
June 30, but an increase of 366.3 per cent over the stocks on July 31,
1920.
Stocks of oats in these elevators continued to increase during
July and amo'Uilted to 15,919,084 bushels on July 31, 1921, as compared
with 300,129 bushels on Jv~y 31, 1920.
About 166,199,000 bushels of
oats, approximately 10.6 per cent of the 1920 crop, ~till remained on
the farms on August 1, which compare& with 56,128,000 bushels on August
1, 1920, and. average stocks of 78,328,000 bushels for that date during
the five preceding years.
FL()'!JR:
No.
There has been an increase in flo1.U" production.
In District
9 (Minneapolis) the JTlly output of mills lJl'Oducing sbuut 75 per cent
of the flour milled in the District increased 13 per cent over June, and
3 per cent over July, 1920. The production during the four weeks ending
July 30, 1921 amounted to 1,871,265 barrels.
Mills operated at 47 per
cent of capacity as compared with 39 per cent in Jlme, and 39 per cent
a year agp.
Production at milling centers in District No. 10 (Kansas
City) is "the largest on record for this time of the year, due to an
exceptional.ly
large demand for immediate shipment."
July output of
reporting mills was 1,902,527 barrels. an increase of 76 per cent over
X-3192
- 9-
the July, 1920 figuke, and operations were at 92 per cent of capacity
--
for the week endinlt·Augu.st 6.
Practically all local 1nills and many·
of the country plant~ :re;orUng in Missouri, !"..ansas, Nebraska and
Oklahoma ere sold up:· for August shiprrent and are booking or~.ers for
September delivery,:.al.though little buying appears for long deferred
shipment.
The libe-ral demand from nearly all sections of the country
is believed to indfcate that bakers' and dealers• stocks of flour are
low.
:Export trade is fairly active, but indicates no great revival of.
foreign buying up to this time.
In District No. 12 (San Francisco),
however, production o£ reporting mills was approximately the same during
July as during June, operations being at 41.2 per cent of capacity, as
compared with 41.7 per cent in June, and 38 per cent in July, 1920.
The July average price of flour was lower than for June, and a further
decrease occurred during
LIVESTO~:.
Au~t.
Live stock on farms and ranges generally continues
in good condition, and ranges and pastures in general are excellent.
While there has been continued drought and hot weather in Southwestern
Texas, range.s in New
i.1c~ico
and Ariz;-:.na 3re -r.ow wAll
moisture as a result of rains
stock to market was light.
._:,d:'~L"":"ing
J·llly.
~,:nrlied
with
The July movement of live
Receipts of cattle and calves at
15 western
markets during the month were 94o,l73 head, corresponding to an index
number of 93, as compared wi trh l, 117,111 head during June, corresponding
to an index number of 111 and 1,180, 789 head during .July, 1920, corresponding to an index num1:er of 117..
Receir.ts of hogs likewise declined
from 2, 671,462 head during June to 2, 021, 263 head during July, as compared
with 2,007.332 head during July, 1920.
The respective index numbers
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•
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- 10 ...
were 122, 92, and 91.
Sheep receipts shcmed a smaller decrease from
the June figure, being 1,035,674 head as compared with 1,130,874 head
during June and 1,300,881 head during July, 1920.
numbers were 76, 83, and 95.
The respective index
Au~st cattle receipts, hcwever, have been
especially heavy, and Kansas City receipts for the week ending August
20, were the largest since the third week of November, 1920. Considerable interest was manifested in feeder cattle during July in some leading markets.
A favorable factor in cannec~ion with the industry has
been the live stoCk pool recently organized.
Cattle prices commenced
to increase at the close of July, and the increase continued in the
first half of . .August.
Hog prices. a.f'ter advancing throughout July,
declined continuously until the third week in August.
At the middle of
the month :Lcattle prices declined sharply, this being ascribed by
District No. 7 (Chicago) chiefly to market conditions in the east.
While good com fed cattle have been finding a ready market, states
that District, the spread bebV'eeu corn :fed and grass fed stock has
increased, and there has been some difficulty in finding a ready
market for the grass fed stock.
The latter has been especially
affected by the recent price declines, and comnon grass steers were
down to the season's lowest price at Kansas City during the week ending
August 20. Hog prices in general, however, showed a slight increase.
The revival of the export trade in meat which set in a. month ago has
increased in volume..
No ..
Bu.siness in pork and pork products, states District
7 (Chicago) has been far beyond expectations. The cooler August
weather has also improved domestic sales, both wholesale and retail,
which had been retarded by the extremely hot July weather.
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X-3192
- 11--
COAL:
Prodnotion of bitundnous coal has been steadily declining.
The end of the British strike has caused a noticeable slowing up of
the export trade; as American coal is no longer able to compete in
European markets.
Another factor has been the slackening of demand
in the Duluth-Superior region.
As a result, July production amounted
to only 30,394,000 tons as compared with a. production of 33,852,000
tons in June and of 45,009,000 tons in July, 1920, the respective
index numbers are 82, 91 and 121.
The stocks of bituminous coal: are
unusually large and many small operators are reported to have been
forced to close down, due to lack of storage facilities.
District
No. 3 (Hliladelphia) reports that there is a better sentiment in the
trade, but that orders seem to have remained practically the same,
except in a few cases where they have declined.
MOst of the orders
are for spot delivery or prompt shipment. .In general, prices remain
about the same..
In District No. 5 (Richmond) consumption about equals
production, while in. District No.
expected.
6
(Atlanta) recovery has not come as
Prices in that District have been reduced as the result
of a reduction in wages.
Mines in D~strict No.
10 (Kansas City) are
operating at 50 per cent of capacity, due to the fact that there is
no market.
Anthracite production also showa a falling off.
July production
was 7, 050, 000 tons as compared with 7, 786,000 tons in June and
8,247,000 in July, 1920.
The respective index numbers are 95, 105 and 111.
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These figu.res indicate that anthracite production has not fallen
as greatly as bituminous prodnction.
quite readily.
Domestic stove sizes move
In District No. 3 (Philadelphia) the demand for
other sizes has slowed down until it is now as small as for the
steam sizes.
Independent operators have reduced prices steadily
until they now almost equal company prices on domestic coal,
and are
so~hat
lower on steam sizes.
have decreased considerably since June.
J3eehive coke prices
Production is at only
7 per cent of normal, although the outpnt of by-product coke
is 146 per cent of normal.
District No. 3 (Philadelphia)
reports a slight improvement in the o"?-tPilt of beehive coke.
"Sentiment in the trade", states that District,
0
is mch more
buoyant than i t was last month. and many operators believe
that production and prices have both passed the lowest point
and will henceforth steadily improve."
- 13 ..
X-3192
PETROLEUM
While production of crude petroleum during the month of July
continued in excess of consumption, a slight but gradual decline
was noticeable.
This decrease in production togethsr with the halt
in the tendency toward lower prices in the petroleum industry are
considered as encouraging factors by the producers.
The fall in prices
duripgJuly averaged 12 per cent for crude petroleum and 5 per cent for
leading refined petroleum products.
Since the peak was reacned last
October1 the average price of crude petroleum in the United States has
receded
64 per cent.
A
very favorable feature in the oil situation
has been the good demand for gasoline, which has been running about
10 ~ cent in excess of the requirements during the .corresponding
period last year.
However, it must be remembered that this is the
season for the greatest consumption of gasoline.
Production figures
compiled by the United States Geological Survey shmv that production
of cruJe petroleum in the United States for the month of July is
105
per cent of that for July a year ago or 401 228,000 barrels as compared
to
36,~203,~000
barrels.
The number of oil wells completed in July, how-
ever1 showed a drop of 74S wells as compared with July .. 1920.
District
No. 12 (California) reports that 76 new wella with an initial daily production of 19,675 barrels were completed during the month of July, but
five wells were abandoned.
California reports an average daily output
of 331~252 barrels of crude petroleum for July as ~ompared with 337,625
barrles in June and 279,169 barrels in July, 1920.
District No. 10
(Kansas City) states that production of crude oil in the Kansas-Oklahoma
and Wyoming region showed a daily average production of 419 6 250 barrels
m July in comparison to 3941 000 barrels daily production in July a year
··~
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X-3192
ago while production in Wyoming alone haG been reduced to less than
50#000 barrels per day.
District was only about
1920.
The nwmer of new wells completed in the
56
per cent of those completed during July,
ThEr --~dcontinent field exceeded all previous records, with
a total production
ot 25,594,982
barrels~
althougn a decrease in
monthly yield and daily average was registered by all Texas fields
with the exception of the North Texas group.
In this district only
251 new wells were completed during the month in c~mparison with 868
.
.
wells in July, 1920.. With the price of oil at the present low point,
the cost of drilling deep wells., particularly those of low productivity
.is almost prohibitive..
In nearly all the oU fiel.ds the outstan\iing
feature is the continued increase in stored stocks . of ·petroleum.
ln
California on July 31 the stored stocks amounted~? )1,634,179 barrels as
comp:red. with 24., 406,753 barrels on the same date last year.
This repre-
sents the largest amount of stocks of petroleum in storage in
since
October~
California
1919.
IRON AND STEEL.
A further decrease in iron and
ported for July from the already low June level.
clined from llo64,833 tonsl corresponding to
an
s.~eel
output was re-
Pig ],ron production deindex number of 47,to
864J 555 tons corresponding to an index· number of 38, ••hile steel ingot
production declined from l,003,4o6 tons, corresponding to an index number of ~3) to 8031
376
tons1 corresponding to an index number of
pig iron tonnage is the lowest produced in any month since
35.
December~
The
1903 ..
r~
" . . ..,
4.,...<' '::;_,:,.«,;:~
- 15 X-3192
There waa a further net loea of 7 active furnaces during July,. only
69 being in blast on
Au~st 1.
The unfilled orders of the United
States Steel Corporation also declined somewhat during the month
of July., from 5.,117,868 tons to 4,830,324 tons.
inde~
numbers were
97
The respective
and 92.
Since the .latter part of July 1 1however., there has been some
increase in inquiries and in the volume of orders, although this
has been eccompanied by continued price cutting in nearly all lines.
Sentiment haa improved considerably in the trade, in spite of the
fact that present business represents largely an acc'iJmulati on of
orders, generally for smcill lots and for immediate delivery 1 which
had awaited the arrival of satisfactory prices..
Pig iron, sheet$
and plates are stated to have perhaps been most affected by price
cutting..
Railroads in the central ·West have recently let a few
large contracts for car repair work, although little or no increase
in their purchases is reported in District No. 3 (Philadel~hia).
Operations in that district have improved little if
a~,
but con-
ditions in District No. 4 (Cleveland) are somewhat better1 and increased demand has actually ca.aed a number of mills to be reopened.
Accompanying the price reductons and low §Cale of operations have
been further reductions
inw~ges.
The leading interest has announced
a reduction in the wages of unskilled labor from 37 to 30 cents an
hour, effective August 29.
n"
~~
v'XI.!i
-16-
AUTQMOBILES.
July shipments of automobiles by manufacturers
were tJOmewhat less t.ha.n in JW'le.
Carload shipments were 19,470
carloads as compared with 201 269 in June and 23,082 in July, 1920,
while driveways likewise declined from
i~JUly" as compared with
1~834
machines in June to 15,320
52,342 in July, 1920. Price reductions
announced in July on cars selling at between $1.000 and. $2,000 averaged
13.7 per cent.
Price reductions are reported to have stimulated sales.
Passenger ears sold during the second quarter· of 1921 equalled
57 per
cant of those sold during the same period of 1920, while for the first
quarter they were only 28 per cent of the number a year ago.
NON-FERROUS METALS :There was 1 it tle change in the demand for
nonferrous metals during July.
On account of the seasonal dullness
and the desire on the paz:t of small producers to dispose of part of
their stocks prices for all the important metals receded further toward the encl of JW.y and early part of Aug,ust..
Although the price of
copper was at a very low level, being offered at ll 7/8 cents f.o.b. 1
warehouse,- consumers held off in the hope that tbe market would go
lower.
In spite o! this situation, domestic and foreign sales for
July were estimated at about 70f000,000 pounds, which represented a
gain of 20,000,000 pounds over June, but was considerably below the
figure reached in May.
contract shipments of
'(
Export demand continued weak, although regular
co~~er
equivalent to those here.
were made to European countries at prices
are
It is very 8.J?parent that buyers/ providing
merely for their immediate
nee~s,
since quantities as low ae 25 tons are
:~·
t
-17-
i..
c; . ~_.d.
X-3192
bougJ-lt by those who formerly purchased 500 to 1, 000 tons.
District
No. 12 (California) reports that copper mines are operating at 66
per cent of capacity.
tr~ct
The output of 12 mines reporting in that Dis-
show that production during June was considerabl7 less than in
-May and in June, 1920.
reductio~
The
in freight rates on ore and
bullion and the lower wages for mille labor are favorable features
in the present situation.
Lead continues to hold the strongest position
of all the metals,. although saes in general are limited to carload lots.
DjSrict No. 10 {Kar.sas City) reports that shipments of lead ore in
July averas,ed 1,.201 tons per week, with an average price for the,nmonth
of $43.44 per ton., in comparison to shipments of 1,482 tons per week
with an average price of
$94.10 per ton in July, 1920..
Producers of
zinc are taking steps to dispoae of the stocks on hand by curtailing
production.
Production of zinc during July amounted to 15,495 tons as
compared to 40,194 tons in July, 1920, while stocks at the close of the
month totaled 92,. 408 tons..
District No .. 12 {Calif omia) reports an
inrease in the output of both gold and silver with the mines operating
at maximum capacity.
COTTON
A~ID
TEXTILES. Consumption
of
raw cotton showed a reduction
from 510,339 bales in June to 4601 139 bales in July..
This decrease oc·
cured not only in New England but also in other parts of the country and
in District No. ,·6 (Atlanta) is reflected in the reports showing the production of specific mills which regularly report to the Federal Reserve
'I
~ank.
Notwithstanding the facts noted the reports for July unite in
stating that the
i~ustry ~s
in a
str~g
position and the presence of
~
r ...
,'"I
.. -
~'·=.:..~)
- 18 -
X-3192
a good buying demand is evidenced by price advances in a number of
linea such as print clothsJ drills and brown sheetings.
District No. 1
(Boston) says that ttaoc.etruct,ive features in the New England cotton
goods situation during the first three weeks of .Aue,ust included a
considerable increase in the scale of mill operation; larger sales of
,rint cloth in Fall River, and an improvement in the demand for both
combed and carded yarns_. with higher quotations for the latter.•' This
testimony is further supported by expressions of opinion coming from
District No. 3 (Philadelphia) "different classes of gcods vary in
•
activity~
it is true, but
~;:enerally
speaking
t~.e
entire market is in
better condition than it has been at any time during the current year.
Reports emanating from both the retail and wholesale trade are all
to the effect that business is satisfactory.
This is particularly
.true in the ginghams 1 some mills being sold up for six months in
advance."
The market for cotton yarns also shows signs of greater ac-
tivity in District No. 3 (Phi~elphia) as well as in listrict No. 1
(Boston), but uncertainty as to .ultimate price levals restricts sales
to the present or the i:rnmadiate future as buyers are net willing to
risk long tima commitments.
nitrict No. 5 (Richmond) says that practical-
ly all the mills are running full time and that although their product
is not sold far ahead, they are receiving sufficient orders to take care
of present output wnile new orders are steadily increasing..
of giny.ams and denims are sold ahead for several months.
Manufacturers
The special
·•;
- 19 X-3192
reports on productive output received from 26 manufacturers of
6 (Atlanta) show a decrease of 9.4
cotton cloth ia District No.
per cent in amounts produced in July as compared with June and a.
falling off in orders on
~and
amoWlting to 7. 7 per cent..
However,
'
.
although the average of unfilled orders was lower than for the preceding
some of the individual mills report a larger volume of
month~
orders while
of the mills report their .production sold to the
tw~
beginning of next year.
Moreover, orily two mills report a surplus
of manufactured cloth on hand.
In the case of 28 cotton yarn mills
there was a decrease in output in July as compared with the preceding
month of 8.2 per
cen~,
but orders on hand at the end of the month were
8.1 per cent in excess of those of the preceding month.
FINISHERS OF COTTON FABRICS.
The reports received from the
Association of Finishers of Cotton Fabrics shew a reduction in the
totel number of finished yards billed during the month of July when
the output amount3d to
yards in June..
851 323,724 yards as compared with 99,929,456
The average percentage of capacity for all· reporting
Districts drepped from 74 per cent to 62 per cent.
yardage of finishing orders received fell from
82, 734, 438 yards.
96, 828,. 994 yards to
The average number of days of work ahead at the end
of the month dropped slirjltly from 9.i to 8.. 9 days..
The total gray
....
(''",
-20-
X-3192
WOOLEN TEXTILES.
-·
The movement of the
19~1 wool~
clip to market
has been surprisingly rapid and sales }l1ve been unusually heavy.
Ths
reports from District No. 12 (San Franciftco) state that although. "final
figures on the 1921 wool::clip are not
available~.
it is estimated that
it amounted to approximately 90 per cent of the 1920 clip of
pounds."
Reports
indicat~d
81,000~000
tl:lat 75 per cent of the new product had been
sold outright to mill buyers and that wool dealers having purchased
all the desirable wool that growers were willing to offer had temporarily retired.
At the beginning of the season about 75 per cent of
the old clip remained \mmarketed and is apparently still largely
held.
Small lots have been sold from time· .to time but manufacturers
have been buying the new output.
Prices paid to producers have been
about the ·same as those ruling in 1915.
To quote the report from
District No. 12 "There have been numerous sales at prices rang!lng
between 12 and 18 cents a pound, depending upon the grade and fineness
of the wool and the financial necessities of the seller.
Because of the
necessity of adjusting woolgrowers' overdrafts on thair consignments
of last year's clip, many sales of this year's wool have resulted in
actual payment to the grower of less tan 15 cents per pound."
Shipments
of wool to the east have been made in great part via the Panama Canal.
Such price advances as have oe curred in the raw wool market have been
confined to the higher grades.
"'1
~-'.:.,:
The Botiton market showed a distinct im-
~..,.,_,
.;
X-3192
- 21 -
provement in August in volume of sales but in view of the large holdover it is not surprising that prices have not advanced except in
the case of special grades of which there is a relative scarcity.
regards the
manufactur~ng
As
end of the industry the outlook is exceedingly
favorable, many mills are operating close to capacity and the consumption
of raw wool in June amounted to 59,592,000 pounds which was in excess of
that of any month since April 1920.
The reports published by the Depart-
ment of Commerce showing the idle loom hours indicate that on August
first woolen spindles were idle 20 per cent of the time, worsted spindles
14.. 3 per cent and co~bs 12.6 ~ cent..
The percentages for looms wider
. than 50 inches and 50 inches or less were 20.8 per cent and 29.,6 per cent
respectively.
American Woolen
Following the successful opening of spring lines by the
~ompany
several manufacturers have also held openings.
It is reporteci f.rom District No. 1 (Boston) that abundant orders were
received·and that the production of certain fabrics had to be allotted.
Dist"rict No. 3 (Philadelphia) likewise reports sufficient orders taken
during the first week in August to insure extensive operations until the
beginning of the year for some mills.
There have been no new developments
in the market for woolen and worsted yarns although certain finer counts
are in good demand.
1'he business done is not on the whole of large amount
and ord_ers are being placed for delivery within a limited period.
case of the finer yarns, prices have advanced slightly.
In the
o~.q
V"~"',..•
~
22 -
X-3192
CLOTHING. Special reports from seven manufacturers of wholesale
clothing in District No. 7 (Chicago) give evidence of the lateness
of the season as orders booked during the earlier months of the year were
considerably below those of 1920 while by the end of July the difference
for the season was not more than
7.6 per cent. In July alone orders were
14 per cent greater than in July of the preceding year.
In the case of
the tailors-to-the-trade (14 firms reporting) end the cut-trim-make
(4 firms reporting), industry, orders, production and shipments were all
approximate'ly 35 per cent belON those of last year.
In District No. 8
(St. Louis) improving business was reported by all but three of the 16
r,orting clothing
fi~s.
Sales in July were from 4 per cant less to
20 per cent heavier thann June; orders. however1 were mainly for immediate shipment but there was a slight increaee in future buying
about the middle of the month.
SILK.
Optimistic expressions of opinion concerning the outlook
in the silk industry have not been sustained by subsequent developments.
As a matter of fact there has been a considerable falling off both in
wholesale and in retail buying of silk goods,and: District No.
3 {Phila-
d~lphia) statee that buying of broad silks is almost entirely restricted
·to staples.
No special improvement has been noted in the market for nar-
/raw silks where dull conditions have been prevalent for a lQng period of
time ..
- 23 -
X-3192
Reports from Paterson1
N.J.~
show that during the two weeks
ending August 13J there was a reduction in the number of loom
hours worked from 261~4l.J.4 to 208,500~
dropped therefore from
The percentage of loom activity
39.. 6 to 32.3..
In North Hudson} N.. Y... reports
covering 4)670 looms show that for the two weeks ending August 15,
there was an increase in activity, the peree:1tagas rising from 57 .. 7
on July 30, to 61 per cent on August 15.
cover 15,000 looms
however~
As the Paterson figures
it is evident that for
t~e
District as
a whole there was a fairly pronounced drop in number of hours worked.
In the raw silk markets no particular changes hav5 occurred during
the past month.
Imports of raw silk for July were 8, 500 ba1es
in excess of those for June and during the same period there was an
increase in consumption of 1,100 bales •
.....
.. . :.:...... . .
("\ ·-, ·4
~
- e4 -
....
~·-·)_..(__
X3192
HOSIERY.
Twenty-nine firms manufacturing hosiery reported to
the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadel~hia
for the month of July.
The
firms selling to the wholesale tra·ie showed reduc+ions in product manufactured during the rronth of
booked fell
4.4 -per cent ss cO"J?ared with June, criers
37.4 r.er cent and
unfi~1ed orders on hand July
per cent lower than at the end of the precedinj;!
hand, the firns sellin? to the
o~erations
during July,
re~ail
produei~g
rronth~
On
31 were 4.8
the other
tra:-'l.e increl'>sed the scr.tle of their
a.9.S per cent larger output and having
unfilled orders on hand at the end of the rronth 18.5 per cent in excess
~ut,
of those at the end of the preceding month.
other firms, orders booked during the month
with June, the drop amounting to
as in the case of the
dtoppe~
sharply as compared
33 per cent. As has been frequently
mentioned .in many quarters of late tr.onths the demand for cotton hosiery
remains very poor although lately there has been a sli@ht improvement
in market conditions for this class of goods.
Silm hosiery, however,
continues to be in demand and the shortage due to the long-drewn-out
strike in the full fashioned hosiery mills has been a feature in creating active business for those mills able to operate.
The rerorts from
Distpict No.3 (Philadelphia) state that conditions in the mills where
the strike "has been in progress are improving and that they are able to
work at
25 per cent of capacity or better in some cases. One of the largest
rrills, indeed, is now eb le to work on alrrost normal basis, but the lack
of suita'ble labor and the difficulties connected with teaching new hands
h"Ve 'been very great,
mills '"'ere
operatin~
In District No. 6 (Atlanta) the· cotton hosiery
at froT'f' 60 to SO per cent of capacity in July, but
the amount manufactured was stated by reporting
~ills
to be slightly less
(".
·~,()
<V •:_
... 25 ..
X3192
than during June and from 20 to 50 per cent below the output for July
1920.
During July the business done ty reporting underwear manufacturers showed a falling off as compared with June but the situation is perfectly understan1able in view of the fact that bUsiness is
being done from hand to mouth and while under ordinar,r conditions at the
end of the summer season contracts for the next summer would normally be
ml'ld.e, there are at present
fe.~'
forward business
Turch~-'>ses.
P.s a result,
the lessening in production in the surnrrer underwear mills is inevitable
for the three rronths following July.
It is probabl~,·however, that there
will be a. strong and steady increase in the production of winter underwea"r from now until the end of the year.
rranufacturers in District NG3
The r-sports received from 19
(?hiladel~hia)
showed
~
falling off in the
product roanufactured during July arr.ounting to 21.5 per cent.
during the month were 27.1 per cent below those of the
unfilled orders on hand July 31 "ITere 2.4 per cent less.
Orders booked
~receding
rr.onth and
The statistics
·received from reporting members of the Association of Knit Goods Manufacturers similarly
month of July.
indic~te
a rather pronounced drop in output during the
Fifty-six mills ret'orted the,t they were working on the
average at 52.2 per cent of normal capaeity whereas in June the reporting
·firms· ( fiJ
65.5 per cent of capacity.
in number) were orereting at
the case of 38 mills
re~orting
In
for both June and July production dropped
from 397,582 dozens to 323,745 dozens or a
decr~ese
of 18.6 percent.
·New orders received during the month fell fr6m 374,625 dozens to 267,362
dozens or a decrease of 28.6 per cent.
~
'f'd
('"'
X3192
Prices of hides
~nd
skins
incre~sed
consid-
erable towards the end of July and were firmly maintained during the
District No. 3 (Philadelphia) re:rorts a.
first three weeks of August.
p~rticularly
large demand for goat skins, whereas the prices of sheep
skins have eased somewhat.
Leather prices, es a whole, htwe been well
maintained during August, but they are still at
level reached this year.
that
u~cer
Re~orts
leather plants are
a~rroximately
the lowest
from District No.7 (Chicago) indicate
o~erating
at 70 per cent and cutstock plants
at 4o -per cent of a full capacity, while the oT.'era.tions of sole leather
tanneries are p:rea.tly curtailed.
and side leathers ere being
belti~
butts
~nd
leather
m~rket
In District No.3 (Philadel-phia) calf
bou~ht
in
l~rge
quantities, but sales of
of glove leather e.re still very small.
The Boston
contir.ues to be quiet, despite the recent increase in
the output of shoes.
District No.1 (Boston) states that the New England
boot and shoe industry is incre"lsing production at a rapid rate.
July output of nine leading shoe
manuf~'>cturers
The
in that section was 92
per cent of their average monthly production during 1920.
Six of these
concerns had more orders on their books on August 1, 1921, than on J..ugust 1, 1920.
The plants of the largest sho• concern in District No.2
(New York) are now operating at 100 per cent of capacity, and are being
enl~rged
in order to perrr.it of increased production.
Business of shoe
manufacturers in District No.3 (Philadelphia) is improving, and factories
which make shoes for girls of school age are
with orders.
p~rticularly
·nell
sup~lied
Jobbers have increesed the volume of their rurchases and
are buying la.rge quantities of low shoes.
..• ,...._
~-''~.\· :._~.
-26-
District No.7 (Chicago') reports
(\'",'I
~p,., __
-27-
that ehoe production in July wae 11~2 par cent less 1 than in
..
and l. 4 per cent less than in July) ·1920.
JUne .
Unfilled orders incteas~d
16 per cent over June arui were nea~ly . three•' times as large as in
July~
1920.
Shoe factories in District No. 8 (St. _Louis) continue
to be operated at from
90 to 100 per cent of capacity,
and shipments
are restricted bJ inability to obtain sufficient goods..
I&MBER.
The output _of lumber during July was restricted
dt.e to a continued decline in the demand.
However, the sentiment
in some sections of the country looks .toward an improvement in
market. conditi<:?ns in the near future •. District No. 12 -(San Francisco)
reports· a· f~vorable outlook for the industry due to several factors;
the reduced frei~t rate to markets east of the Mississippi;_. the
anticipated res~tion of buying by the railroads; the low stocks
of lUmber n~lllftld by distributors; and. the increasing demand for
Arre
rican lumber on the part of Japan, China and Australia..
The
lumber production in that District-which had been increasing steadily
since January: 1 declined slightly during July.
in the District report
a cut
Four lumber association&
for July of 329~343,000 feet 1 which was 12.7
(.i:.
.••.
X-3192
per cent less than the June
op2rating at approximately
cut, and estimate that mills are
65 per
cent .of normal•
tn comparison
with last month, both orders and shipments show a decline due to
the fact that buying has been held in cheek awaiting the freight
reductions .announced on July 11, but not yet effective.
Orders1
du- ing J'~y 1 1921 totaled 263,416 1 000 feet, a decline of 9· 5 per
cent when compared with the previout; month, while shipments. amounted
to 286,727i000 feet in July, a
No. 11 (Dallas)
de~line
of 10 per cent.
In District
35 mills reported a July production which was 31
per cent below normal.
Orders booked during the month were 66 per cent
of the normal monthly production - about the
in the preceding month.
s~
percentage as
The report of 134 mills of ,the Southern
Pine Association in District No. 6 (Atlanta) showed lumber production
for the week ending July 29 to be 22.4 per cent below normal 1 while
shipments and orders were both about 22.6 per cent below nonnal.
The
lumber cut of reporting mills in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) totaled
15,319,~16
feet - a 2 per cent decline from the June cut and a 44
per cent decline from the cut of July 1 1920.
the month show a
The orders booked during
6 per cent increase over !une, but were only 77.2 per
cent as large as the orders received during July, 1920.
-2~-
BUILDI"\TG.
X3192
The building situation generally continued
dull during July, with few new enterprises undertaken.
The reports
from all Districts show that the construction of rr.oierate priced
homes and dwellings constitutes a large part of
activity~
pres~nt
building
while construction of business and industrial struc-
tures is practically negligible.
District No.1 (Boston) and
District No. 9 {Minneapolis) were the only Districts which showed
incrGeses in total 'building contracts aW'l.rded, (statistics of which
are compiled for seven Districts by the F.W.Dodge Company).
In
District No.1 (Boston) contracts ~warded amounted to $19,298,334
~s comp~red
i~tely
with $15,308,072 during June.
Of this total, a.pprox-
$6,675,000 was for residential purposes as compared with
1!6,530,000 in June.
In District No.2 (New York) contracts awarded
during July totaled $54,500,566 in comparison ..vith $63,561,926'd"Q:ring June, and residential 'building for this District totaled
$22,546,142 as co:rrp('\red with $34,355,048 during June.
tracts awarded in District No.3
$13,563,100 in July,
~~d
(Philadel~hia) ~mounted
$14,796,800 in June.
to
Residential contracts
totaled ¢2,97l,9CO in July and $3,543,700 in June.
Total con-
In District No.4
•·····,1->
'-~-~
-30-
X3192
(Cleveland) the total arrount of building contrects awarded was
$35,6F9,377 as comp~red with $39,928,314 for June.
Of these,
$8,319,248 were for residential 'urposes as compared with
$8,198,377 during June.
Contrects for District No.5 (Richmond)
amounted to ~16,026,969 in July as corq:>ared with $20,428,761
in June, while $5,335,545 of the July total were for residential
~urnoses
as
corop~red
with
~4,090,859
for June.
In District No.7
(Chicago) building contracts totaled $41,119,866 dur~g July as
cornp~red
with $45,199,007 in June.
Permits for new construction issued in twenty-three of the
larger cities of District No.5 (Richreond) during July totaled
1,442 as compared with 1,137 issued in July, 1920, a ~ain this
year of 26.8 -per cent..
The total valuation for new work in
July, 1921 ~unted to $4,529,261 as compared with $5,799,171
for July, 1920.
Due to the decr9ases in costs of building oper-
ations
the past year, the number of
throu~hout
any District, is more indicative of the
tion than Fire the dollar errounts.
total permits issued in Atlanta
rronth in all previous years.
issued in
volume of construe-
In District No.6 (.Atlanta) the
durin~
In
~ctual
pe~its
July exceeded those for thBt
N~shville
the July total for
pennits was larger than for P.n.y -previous month.
District No. 8
(St.Louis) reported thPt building permits issued in the five
princi'Pal cities
durin~
July showed a sliPht increPse over the
June total, but a decregse of
,•
month l~st year.
~587,000
under the corresponding
Nine cities of District No.9 (Minneapolis)
issued 1,753 permits during July valued at
~3,906,381
as compared
--·
f
(
~ ~-~
r.',
._.,.,~ ' ( j
... 31-
X3192
with 1,971 pennits valued et $5,602,586 during June.
This
District reported that the permits granted durin@: July were
alrr.ost all for the smaller types of construction.
fourteen cities in District No.lO
(~nses
Reports for
City) showed a total
of 2,24o permits issued in July as compared with 2,166 in June.
ln District No.l2 (San Francisco) twenty cities reported 7,925
permits granted valued at $15,298,705 in comparison with 8,199
permits valued at $15,450,694 in June~
Building activities in
San Francisco and vicinity are still curtailed due to strike
conditions in the building trades •
.As there "Mve been no pronounced changes
in industrial activity during the past month it is not surprising that the employment situation shculd also
substantially the
same..
On
h~ve
remained
the whole there was probably a neg-
ligible decre8se in numbers employed during July as compared
with the
pr~eding
month, as the monthly industrial survey of
the United States Emnloyment Service shows that 1,428 firms
usually employing 500 or more
~ersons
located in
65
princi~al
industrial centers of the United States were employing only
1,510.210 workers on July 31, 1921 es compared with 1,527,124
on .June 30, 1921, a decrease of 1.1 per cent.
In New England,for example, the leading industries which
ere fairly active at the present time are not taking on any
more employees and the metal trades continue to be as dull as
during the preceding rr:onth..
The Boston Public l!mployment Office
reports that during the first twelv~ working.days in August.
r··.
···.c~
.;,_.!..C'.._. "..,""
-32-
X3192
nine per cent fewer persons were wanted by employers than during the corresnonding :period of the previous rr:onth, while during the n:onth of July, 26 per cent few·er workers were ce.lled
for than in June.
The derrand for skilled w·orkers hes teen lerge-
ly confined to the building trades end requests from those who
ren~ir
wanted to do
1MOrk.
There have been practically no
tions f~om persons looking for unskilled labor.
Public
E~loyrrent
appli~a-
The Worcester
Office noted no improvement in the deroznd
from the metal tra1es and 14 per cent fewer workers were wanted
for the month ending ftugust
15
rronth; while
15,
than during the preceding
:per cent fewer :positions were filled ..
In District No. 2 (New Y9rk) slight gains in numbers
employed in some districts were just about counterbalanced by
loss?s in the case of others.
In africultural sections there
was a decided drop in the demand for farm labor in the eatly
p.'lrt of August, and employment Agencies throughout the state
report that
11
there heve been rrore ar"Olicetions for positions
and fewer requests for workers during .August then tH an;r time
since the recession in business set inn.
In District No.3 (~hiladelphia) there was a slight diminution of unemployment in the six cities of ftltoone, Harrisburg: ,
Johnstown, Philadelphia,
Scr~ton
first two weeks in August.
~mounted to
1.6
1'he decree se in n'lmlbers of unemplgyed
per cent AS compared with estimates for July
later reports from individual
and Williamsport during the
'!'l'2.nuf~?cturers
•
indicate further
30.
. .-.0
r•\:;_
"
"--" '<._)
X3192
-33improverrent in the
emplo~ent situ~tion,
but in the iron
ana
steel and alliQd industries there has been no 1"8 rticular change.
In District No.5 (Richmond) there has been some demand for unskilled workers
for road
~nd
street improvement and
incre~sed
activity in building trades has likewise provided work .for a few.
!t is stated that the textile mills in the neighborhood of
Ch~rlottet
North CP-rolina whose operatives have been on strike
from June 1,
~re
now resuming o-perations and that the textile
On the other hand
mills in general a,re adding to their forces.
m~y
railrOP.d emplo+ees, ship yard and dock workers remain idle.
'Tihe demand ·for wo!I'en workers Ms
f~llen
off preatly and farm
labor is in excess of derrP.nd.
In District No-6 (Atlanta) unem'9lo~ent is especially pro-
nounced in the iron and steel district. and in coal mining sections.
New Orleans un.emt'loyrnent is considerab'le in the building
end metal tracles and sugar refineries.
Stathties COmt'iled by
the United States Employment Service for June show a deerease of
2 per cent for New Orleans while increases were recorded at
Atlanta, EirninghElm
.6 per eent
~md
Chattanooga amounting to 16.7, 1.1 and
res~ectively.
The results from the labor questionnaire
by the Federal Reserve Bank in District No.
7
re~ularly
issued
(Chicago) show
practieally no change in nunters emrloyed during July as compared
with the preceding month.
per cent in the
c~se
~s
the
decre~se
was less tban .1 of one
of 181 reporting firms employing 113,668
. '.
..,
I
-34persons.
X3192
The steel and iron industries in the District are ,how-
ever,still reducing their forces.
Forty•five concerns
~roploy~g
25,970 men reported a decre'9.se d 5.6 per cent in July as compared with June.
Structural steel and iron however improved slight-
ly and railway equipment sho{ls increased the number of men employed by 8.S per cent.
Reports from the Employers Association of
Detroit continue to show a slight increase in numbers employed
in the automobile industry.
Reports from District No.S {St.Louis) show a further
crease in unemployment estimated from 6.5 to 10 per cent.
i~
The
losses are attributable to the lack of demand for workers in
steel and iron and building trades.
A surplus of
agricul~ural
labor likewise exists.
conditi=s
ln District No.9 (Minneapolis) employmen!/showed a seasonal
improvereent .in July
~s
a result of harvesting requirements and
highwa, improvement work.
In the lumber ind.ustry
more men were employed in July than in June,_ but
~1
tr~
per cent
totals were
34 per cent below those for last year.
No particular change in the employment situation was recorded in District No.l2 (San Francisco) during July.
It was s.tated
that the increased demands for labor from agricultural areas were
largely offset by the reduced numbers employed in ndning, lumbering, fishing and shipbuilding
industries~
Although
cro~s
have been
'l.bundant, harvesting operations have been carried on with the aid
of less labor than
hE~s
usually been taken on in :rest years.
Outside
c-..····-/.,.~
\l...r';;._)-t~
-":'""'
X-3192
I
('\, --~- <'..,
......, ·._..if·d
- 35 of San Francisco where strikes are still in progress, there was a slight
improvement in employment conditions in the building trades of the large
cities, and the monthly report of the United States Employment Service
also shows that in the case of firms employing
500
men or over, increases
were recorded for Seattle, tos Angeles and Portland.
These increases
were negligible in the two former cases, but alOOunted to 14.7 per cent
in the case of Portland.
WHOLESALE
TBAPE:
Sales of wholesale hardware ."'and of boots and
shoes show fairly pronounced declines in all reporting Districts for
the month of July as compard with June, following slight increases in the
former month as compared with May.
from
8.5
The recession in hardware. sales ranges
per cent in District No. 11 (Dallas) with six firms reporting, to
17.8 per cent in District No. 3 (Philadelphia) with 25 firms reporting. In
the majority of Districts represented, decreases are in excess of 10 per
cent, but as compared with the amount of total sales recorded a year ago,
are not so great as in other lines, chiefly, no doubt, because price reductions have been less extensive.
However, decreases vary from 15.8 per
cent in District No. 10 (Kansas City), four firms reporting~ to 49 .. 8 per
cent in District No,. 6 (Atlanta), 14 firms reporting.
In the other five
reporting Districts. the decreases are between 30 and 40 per cent.
In
District No. 3 (Philadelphia) hesitancy in placing orders for fall trade
· wascommented upon.
De!I".and for mill supplies and builders' hardware was
stated to be especially poor.
Unstaple prices and belief in further re-
ductions have preYented the placing of future contracts.
District No. 10
(Kansas City)notes that hardware sales improved towards the end of the month
as
r··,
n
i.,.\_)f J
-36returns from crops began to come in.
X3192
The decline in mid-sumrrer demand
for boots and shoes hP s been quite hePvy ,awounting to 16.9' :rer cent
in the c~se of District No.l2 (S~n ~r~ncisco) 15 firms reporting; 22.2
per cent in District No.5 (Richmond); 8 firms reporting; and 23.4 per
cent in District No.6 (fttlarita), 9 firms reporting.
sales as compared with a year ago
no doubt,
~s
~re
The reductions in
in all ceses very beavy,prirrPrily,
a result of the drastic cuts in prices that have occurred
in the interval.
The ra!lfe is from 34.2 per cent in the
c~se
of Dis-
trict No. 7 (Chicago), 9 firms reporting, to 69·9 per cent in the
case of District NQ.12 (San Francisco), l2 firms reporting.
In this
l"'st mentioned case, it looks es if tbe drop were a somewhat belated
reduction that brought the returns more in line with those for other
Districts as sales
comp~red
with July 1920, show a drop of 50.1 per
cent, while in five other Districts the reduction es compared with a
year ago hes been from 52.3
~er
cent in District No.7 (Chicago), 9
firms re1:1ort1ng, to 57 ·5 p·~r cent in District No.ll (Dallss), 9 firms
re~orting.
In only one case, District No.4 (Cleveland), hes the re-
duction been under 50 per cent, namely 35·5 per cent for three reporting firms.
The
incrl3~ses
during the current month are attributable
to retail buying for the fall trade.
Stocks are low and in the agri-
cultural sections of the country after-h,.rvesting demand he.s to be met.
Grocery sales have held U'P fairly well end in three out of six reporting
Districts increases occurred tn July as corrpared with June,
arr~unting
to 1.2 per cent, 13 firms re-porting; in District No. 11 (Dalla.s); 12
per cent in District No.l2 (San Franciseo), 28 firms reporting; 17.F
per cent in District No.lO (Kansas City),
5 firms
re~orting.
Losses as
,~,
I
'•
- 37 compared with a year ago vary unevenly from District to District,
13.6
amounting to
44.9
rising to
per cent in District No. 10 (Kansas City) and
per cent in District No.
3
(Philadelphia).
Decreases
in sales. are in part accounted for by the drop in the price of sugar
and the diminished tonnage of sugar sales following
heavy distribution of a year ago.
t~e
abnormallf
District No. 3 (PhiladelPhia) reports
prices firmer and a better feeling, although July sales are slightly
below those for June, the average drop .being 2. 6 per cent for 4S reporting firms.
Negligible decreases were also found in District No. 5
(Riclur.ond), nine firms reporting a loss of ,6 of one per cent, and
in District No.
6
(Atlanta) in WhiCh 24 firms reported a reductio.n
of 5·9 per cent in July sales.
RETAIL TRADE:
The retail trade situation during the month· of
July was very quiet and inactive..
This is, however, the period of
normal mid-sumner dullness, and fall purchases do not generally begin
until August.
The sumner clearance sales were inaugurated in June
this year and the natural result was a lull in the July business.
Many stores report intensive "shopping" in order to secure maximum
values.
Reports from representative department stores show a
decrease in all Districts in net sales tor July from the sarxe month
a year ago.
This amounted to 12.3 per cent in District No. 1 (Bosto.n),
where it is reported that sales of stores in larger cities are less
than sales of stores in smaller cities.
No. 2 (New York)is 11.5 per cent.
sales decreased ll.SS per
~ent,
The decrease in District
In District No. 3 (Philadelphia)
which was
partly due
to
f">. r·.~. ··~
i.7._1d
-3~
X3192
the continued widespread depression in the iron
tries.
~nd
steel indus•
Sales in District No.4 (ClevelAnd) decreased 21.4 per cent,
11.7 per cent in District No.5 (Ric~ond), 21.7 per cent in District No• 6 (Atlanta) end 14.7 per cent in District No.7 (Chicago).
District No. 7 (ChicPgo) reports tllF!t prices he~ been reduced
further in order to
liquid~te
stocks on hand.
The decrease in sPles
in District No.8 (St.Louis) ~wounted to 16.5 per cent; in District
No. 9 ('Minneapolis) 21.8 per cent; in District No.lO (Kansas City)
10.9 per cent; in District No.ll (Dallas) 22.1 per cent and in
District No. 12 (San Francisco) 12.9 ~er cent.
able increase of the percentage of stocks to
se~sonel
dullness.
chandise actually needed in the stores
indicate that
s~les
due to the
OutstAnding orders incre~sed during July, espec-
ia.lly in the letter pert of tm month.
itedium-priced goods.
There is a notice-
These orders are for mer~nd
are principally for
"r'he increase in outstanding orders seems to
ret~ilers
anticipate a good demend for fall goods.
I
-39PRICES:
X-3192
As has been the case during the :past six months, the
August :price situation shows conflicting tendencies.
Prices of leading
agricultural commoditlt,s, such as wheat, com, oats, rye and hogs have
consistently declined 1 cotton has advanced, while cattle after advancing
during the early -portion of the month, showed :price recessions at the
end.
In the metal and mineral industria s, there were further :price
reductions, bituminous coal, petroleum, and the nan-ferrous metals all
showing declines.
Toward the end of the month pig iron :prices were
reported to be somewhat stronger than they had been for some time in
the past.
Ride and leather and cotton prices showed perhaps the
greatest strength of .atlY of the different lines, although finished
woolen goods were likewise reported to be strong.
On the whole it is
impossible to forecast the general trend of prices during the month.
Manufactured goods have probably held relatively firm, but as has been
indicated above, many important raw materials have declined.
Prices in general during the past three or four months have become
somewhat more stabilized than they were in the early spring, but
whether this period of relative stability will continue, whether prices
will rise appreciably, or fall is a matter for speculation.
A continua-
tion of relative stability in the price level as a whole might be
marked by more or less extrene variations in the prices of individual
colllTtodi ties if the variations cancelled one another.
For instance,
increases which might occur in the :prices of cornrnodi ties which have
been
11
liquidated" or reduced to approximately pre-war levels might be
accompanied by reductions in the prices of commodities whiCh are still
far above the :pre-war level.
This is closely related to the theory
which seems to be held by a number of ecanorrdsts who emphasize the fact
T
X-3192
-4o-
(''•. r"'""'-'
~;~ . _) ·i
I
'·
that the various elerr.ents of the price system are out of harmony one
with another (some being at twice the pre-war level while others are
below it) and that there is fair reason to expect commodity prices to
bear approximately the same ratio to one another as they did before
the war.
At the same time, other students of the price problem lay
greater stress on the supply situation in the individual commodity
lines than upon the interrelationship of prices in different lines.
Both factors probably plq a part in the making of prices.
What is
difficult to measure is the importance of the several factors
C'\(
the
price level as a whole.
During July, the index nambers of wholesale prices compiled by
the Federal Reserve Board, Dun, and Bradstreet indicated a rise.in ·
prices, while that o·r the Bureau of Labor Statistics !bowed no change
from the June level.
The Federal Reserve Board indexa constructed
primarily for international comparisons 1 stood at 141 in July (with
the 1913 level taken as 100) as compared with 139 in June4
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics registered
on the same basis.
The index
148 in both June and
July.
'l'he important changes during the month were further
reductions in the prices of producers' goods (in which the equipment
materials figure largely) and the comparative strength of raw materials
and consumers' goods.
Retail prices of foods increased for the first
tin:e since June, 1920..
The increase between June and July. 1921
amounted to a little under 3 per cent.
SHIPPING:
Little change is to 'be noted in the shipping s1 tua.tion
during August as compared with the last few months previous..
American
ships continued to carry but little more than one-third of our imports
and exports
me~sured
in terms of value.
This proportion is far 'below
What would be expected of a fleet as large as that belonging to this
country.
The figures of IJ.oyd' s Register of Shipping on the size of
the merchant fleets of the different countries, recently made public,
show that, on June 30, 1921, the United States had ships aggregating
17,026,002 gross tons out of a world total of 61.974,653 tons.
'!he
United Kingdom slightly surpassed the United States wltl. .a fleet of
19,571,554 tons, but France Which is third in rank had only3,652,249
tons.
Japan, Italy, Norwq and Holland follow in the order named with
merchant fleets ranging from about 3,350,000 tons down to 2,225,000
tons.
If sailing veesels are disregarded and only steamers and motor
vessels are considered, the United States on June 30 had a merchant marine
of 15,746,384 tons out of a world total of 58,846,325 tons or 26 .. 8 per
cent cf the world's steam and motor shipping.
In 1914 the world•s steam
tonnage was 45,140),817 tons and the share of the United States was only
4,330,078 tons or 9.6 per cent of the total.
roBEJGN TJWlE: The July
forei~
trade totals are sli@)l.tly lower
than for June, continuing the declines which set in at the beginning
of 1921 in the case of exports, and some months earlier in the case of
i~orts.
Exports were valued at $321,000,000 and tmports at $179,000,000,
the excess of exports being $142,000,000.
At the same time
forei~
countries continued to send us gold in large vol'UDlB, resulting in a
net inWard movement for July of $60,000,000.
The Bureau of Foreif?P
and Domestic Conrnerce has made an analysis of our foreign trade for
the fiscal year 1921, which shows that lower prices rather than
•
~
;
X-3192
f'' ''r')
:t.."
-42-
diminished quantities are responsible for the reduction in our
trade totals as compared with the preceding fiscal year.
forming
69
Cotmr.odi ties
per cent of the value of domestic exports in the fiscal
year 1921 show a. decrease in value of 19 per cent, but an increase
in weight of 23 per cent over the fiscal year 1920.
The group
of raw materials in the same compilation, shows a weight increase
of 34 per cent, and ~ group of foodstaffs a weight increase of
37 per een t.
A limited group of partly or wholly manufactured
comnodi ties shows a. decrease in weilbt of 4 per cent.
'lhese
results are notewortey as showing how the volume of our trade
has been maintained until recently, and that the falling off in tbe
quantities of exports which has been observable in the earlier
months of 1921 has not offset the large movements of goods in the
previous months of the ·fiscal year.
'lhese facts are in agreemmt
also With the showing of the Board's foreign trade index, which
disclosed relatively small declines in the volume of exports
in February, March and April, and a substantial recoveey in
flay and Jwle.
_.}l'l:~,'
@FedFRASER