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225 f e d e r a l RESERVE BOARD STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS For Release in Morning Papers, Thursday, March 3, 1921. The following i s a review of general "business and financial conditions throughout the several Federal Reserve Districts during the month of February, as contained in the forthcoming issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. Business and industry for the month of February have continued in a transitional and unstable condition. means been firmly reestablished. Demand for goods has by no Although there are abundant indications that stocks of goods have been greatly reduced and that a large volume of potential buying i s in sight, i t has not yet become actual. Current purchasing has been chiefly for immediate needs because of feeling of uncertainty as to the future trend of prices. The Board's index number of wholesale prices, based upon ninety commodities, for the month of January shows a further decline from 171 to 162. prevails in a number of directions. Uncertainty s t i l l A net gain in the activity of certain important manufacturing industries has been noted. This has been most marked in shoes and textiles and has been observed most especially in District No. 1 (Boston). The movement toward better conditions has not been wholly sustained during the early weeks of February, undergoing some setback on account of changes in the prices of basic raw materials. The employment situation in these industries has bee* somewhat improved but such improvement has been partially offset by reduced employment in other lines. Conditions? as to employment are by no means uniform in the several Districts. 226 -2- x-3055 jn agriculture tne prospects for tne spring season are opening favorably. The remaining portion of the ]%20 crop, which was to some extent witubeId from market, has been moving more steadily to points of consumption. This has tended s t i l l further to improve the banking situation in the northwest and to some extent in the southern states The steady increase iri the reserve ratio of the "Federal Reserve System has continued throughout the month. Member bank portfolios show continued evidences of growth of liquidity. AGRICULTURE. The general agricultural situation has improved during the past few weeks. In District No. 11 (Dallas) n^ood progress in winter plowing and in the growth of winter grains and truck crops, was made last month due to the mild, open weather prevailing in January"- In District No. 10 (Kansas City) r,The temperatures have been exceptionally mild and have afforded opportunities through the greater part of the winter for outdoor work on the farms and ranges, as well as being highly beneficial to crops". Light snows and rains have l e f t the fie. Ids and ranges in good condition with sufficient moisture for quick germination of seeds. The winter grain crops are in a healthy state and show improvement. In District No. 11 (Dallas) the spring truck crops in the Rio Grande Valley are reported to be making excellent progress. However, the exceptionally mild winter has been conducive to a premature budding of fruit in the East Texas fruit growing section and some uneasiness i s being f e l t concerning the safety of this crop. This danger is also f e l t in District No. 10 (Kansas City). GR£I5» The movement of grain to market has been in larger vo2.ume during January, 1921 than during January, 1920. Total January grain re- ceipts at Minneapolis and Duluth were 18,378,148 bushels, an increase of 227 -3- X-3055 about 11$ over the January 1920 figures of 16,577.815 bushels, but a decrease of about 24$ from the December 1920 figure of 24,078,549 bushels. Receipts of each of the grains (except oats) decreased when compared with December, but (with the exception of rye) were greater than a year ago. It has recently been estimated that about 70$ of the 1920 wheat crop in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) was marketed at mills and terminals by February 1, and that about 40 million bushels of the crop remained on the fftEms or in country elevators on that date. The marketing of grain at centers in District No. 10 (Kansas City) since the opening of the year has been larger than during the same period last year. The January wheat movement at Kansas City was 10,289,000 bushels, an increase of 52.7$ over that for -January, 1920. increases. Other markets also reported substantial The heavy marketing, i t i s stated, "is taken as an indication of a desire on the part of many farmers to liquidate stocks on hand", in spite of the absence of material improvement in prices. The movement of corn to the markets in January was also larger than a year ago, and the percentage increase was practically the same as for wheat. Receipts of the leading grains at St. Louis have in general been greater during January 1921 than during either December or January, 1920. "The wheat growers of the Pacific Northwest and the barley growers of California," i t is reported, "are s t i l l inclined to hold their crops for better prices," but the demand is lighter than usual and buyers have no trouble in obtaining s u f f i c i e n t grain. It is estimated that in the wheat growing areas of Oregon and Washington 45$ of the surplus beyond farm consumption remains in f i r s t hands as compared with 15$ at the same time in 1920. A cooperative wheat growers1 association has been f ormed in Washington and -4- Idaho, and a similar organization i s now projected for Oregon. tendencies have been somewhat mixed. 2S8 X-3055 Price Highest, lowest and medium prices for cash sales of wheat and rye in Minneapolis increased in January over December, while similar prices decreased for com, oats, "barley end flcix. The medium price of No. 1 dark northern was $1.84 per bushel in January as compared with $1.72 in December. more stable, although slightly lower. At St. Louis, quotations have been The closing pries of No. 2 red winter wheat on January 15 was $2.02 per bushel as compared with $3.»96 $1*99 on February 15. MILLING OPERATIONS. Milling operations have continued at a low level. Output of mills in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) representing 75$ &f the total District production, was 2,299,433 barrels during the 5 weeks ending January 29, as compared with 2,646,150 barrels during the 5 weeks ending December 25, and 2,949,780 barrels during the 5 weeks ending January 31, 1920. 53$ a The mills are operating at about 39$ of capacity, as compared with year ago. Flour production of reporting mills in District No. 10 (Kansas City) was 1,150,4l6 barrels during the 4 weeks ending January 29, as compared with 1,882,588 barrels during the corresponding period of 1920. Kansas City mills operated at an average of 62% of capacity, interior Omaha mills at 29% and mills at 4Zfc. The trade has been confined chiefly to bakers' and jobbers' immediate needs. Demands at the beginning of February resulted in an increase in operations at Kansas City to 73$ of capacity and at Omaha to 6l$. Some slight improvement was noted in District No. 12 (San Francisco) during January. Reports from eighty principal millers in the District show operations during the month at 40,3$ of capacity, as compared with 26.7$ in Decenioer and 92-1$ in January, 1920. January output was 594,787 barrels, an increase of 195,095 barrels over the December figures. The increased demand is attributed to reduced 229 -5- X-3055 surplus stocks of flour and a fairly steady demand within the District> although export trade continues light, COTTON CROP* The 1920 cotton crop is practically a l l out of the field and ready for the markets. In District No. 12 (San Francisco) * at out 90$. of the D i s t r i c t s cot Ion crop is now in the bale*, and in District No, 11 (Dallas), "Cotton picking in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona progressed under the best conditions". In the latter District, i t is reported that most of the unpicked cotton is of such a low grade that it is likely to be l e f t in the field and turned under* Reports from a l l districts in the cotton growing area seem to indicate a considerable reduction of acreage planted in cotton during the 1921 season as compared with 19201 which will be replaced by various grain and forage crops# The farm organization movement has been general, with the emphasis upon better marketing conditions, but at the same time urging a more general diversification of crops, so that the farmer tray, supply his own needs# The movement of cotton has varied somewhat in the several Districts, according to the Government Market Report? Cotton movements throughout the country from August 1 to February 4 were somewhat lighter than last season* Sights receipts were less by about one million bales while port receipts decreased about 700,000 bales. However, at Galveston receipts this season were about 2($ more than last season* district No* 12 (San Francisco) reports that only a small portion of the crop has been sold* while District No* 8 (St. Louis) characterized the movement of cotton as backward. OTHER CROPS* The situation in the leaf tobacco districts has improved somewhat during the month. Tobacco prices in District No* 5 . eomewhat (Richmond) hwere/' better during January than they were before the holidays, and much of the crop has been sold". The condition has varied 230 -6- x-3055 with the several markets, in that some have been glutted while others have been closed because the farmers have been unwilling to accept the prices offered. In the tobacco sections of District No. 8 (St. Louis) country merchants report that farmers are selling the crop and liquidating their indebtedness. In District No. 5 (Richmond)"much talk of reduced acreage in tobacco for 1921 continues, and a co-operative marketing association is being formed among growers." The condition in the manu- facturing industry has shown l i t t l e change. District No. 3 (Philadelphia) reports that the "demand is somewhat inactive, vith purchases being made only to meet the current requirements of local dealers," due to uncertainty as to prices. The mild weather prevalent throughout the country this winter has caused an early budding of trees in a l l fruit growing sections. The exact status of the crop of course i s not definitely determined until the possibility of damage from late frost has passed, and until that time uneasiness is naturally f e l t . District No, 12 (San Francisco) reports "In the Pacific Northwest the buds began swelling six weeks earlier than usual and in California the almonds and some of the earlier varieties of fruits are already in blossom." The February estimate of the California citrus fruit crop has confirmed the previous forecast of a record crop, * "The quality of the fruits has been high but i t has not been sizing up as well as last year, and in many cases picking has been confined to the larger sizes which bring higher prices." January 1921 shipments of oranges have been larger by a thousand cars than those of January, 1920, while shipments of lemons during the same period have been slightly under those for ths same period last year. -7- X-3055 LIVE STOCK, Livestock generally i s in excellent condition, due to the open winter and to ample supplies of feed and forage. Fewer cattle are being fed than usual in District No, 10 (Kansas City). Big feeders in the D i s t r i c t , particularly in Missouri, are not "bringing large numbers of stdck hogs. Very l i t t l e sheep feeding i s reported. Light rains and snows over a considerable part of the range country in District No. 11 (Dallas) relieved the need of moisture previously noted in scattered localities- While there is s t i l l some evidence of drought in isolated sections, and the shortage of grass in the irrigated parts of Arizona has given rise to a serious situation in the sheep industry, range conditions in the south and in general continue better than they have been f o r many years« siderably understated. The ranges in the District are stated to be conGood weather and cheap food in District No. 12 (San Francisco) are making i t possible for many livestock men to hold their animals over the winter, unlike last year, when a considerable amount of unfinished stock was forced into the market» There was a stronger demand f o r feeders during the f i r s t two weeks of February, especially aevonth, for hogs, and on February/ feeders at Portland sold at a premium of 25^ over f a t p i g s , which i s the reverse of the usual situation. In the District as a whole, the winter season i s usually the time of greatest consumption and smallest supply, and as a result livestock prices held f a i r l y steady although the Salt Lake market was more sensitive to the weakness in the middle western markets. further price declines featured the livestock markets in District No. 10 (Kansas City), although the declines have been less drastic than those recorded last f a l l . The better class of beef steers has slumped more than the lower grades, heavy hogs have been in less demand than light hogs, and prices of sheep have declined -8- X-3055 materially in the past month in that D i s t r i c t . Hogs alone showed no decrease in price in District No. 11 (Dallas) during January, but the "best grades of beef steers which s old as high as $9.00 at the opening of the month, ranged at i t s close from &7.C0 to $7»50« Declines in dressed meat prices have affected packing operations to some extent in District No. 10 (Kansas City), while outside buying constituted the bulk of the c a t t l e transactions of the month, packers taking very few of the offerings. Receipts of the principal classes of l i v e stock at 15 western markets show increases over the December figures, but in the case of cattle and calves and hogs are below the large figures f o r a year ago. January receipts of cattle and calves ,rrere 1,191,814 head, corresponding to an index number of 118, as compared with 984,309 head in December, and 1i392,739 head in January, 1920, corresponding respectively t o index numbers of 98 and 138. Receipts of hogs increased from 2,932,052 haad during December to 3»339>4l9 head during January, but were l e s s than the January 1920 figure of 3s842»6C9 head. 133» 152, and 175- The respective index numbers were January receipts of sheep were 1,112,024 head, corresponding to an index number of 81, as compared with 942,858 head during December, corresponding to an index number of 69, and 1,055,274 head during January, 1920, corresponding to an index number of 76COAL. The demand for bituminous coal has f a l l e n off considerably as a result of the mild weather, the curtailment of operations by indust r i a l plants and the contraction in the tonnage used by the railroads. Production during January was 40,124,000 tons, as compared with 52,564,000 tons during December and 48,689,000 tons during January 1920. index numbers are 108, 142, and 131- The percentage l o s s due to absence of a market was 46.9A- for the week ending February 5* The respective Domestic coal i s in •-S- x-3055 233 good demand in District No. 6 (Atlanta), but the steam coal market i s s t i l l quiet. Weekly production in District No. 5 (Richmond) has fallen off about 20$ since the end of November. Mine prices reflect the market situation, but retail prices have not followed, i t i s stated from District No. 5 (Richmond). Retailers attribute the situation to contracts pre- viously made and to high freight rates. Operators in District No. 3 (Philadelphia) "continue to produce in order to keep their working organization together". Coal dealers in District No. 5 (Richmond) do not appear to have large stocks on hand, but are purposely limiting them because of price uncertainties. The coke market reflects the situation in the iron and steel industry, as prices have declined and operations have been curtailed. Anthracite production has continued heayy, being favored by mild weather and liberal car supply. January production was 9»^9iOCO tons as compared with 8,32L ,0C0 tens during December and 7*588,000 tons during January, 1920. The respective index numbers were 127, 112 and 103• There is a poor demand for buckwheat, and many of the larger producers are storing this size with a view to marketing under more favorable conditions. Steam sizes generally are beginning to f e e l the competitive effect of the low price of bituminous coal, and sales are not as brisk as heretofore. PETROLEUM, Decreased consumption has resulted in a considerable drop in the price of crude petroleum. At the close of January, Kansas and Oklahoma crude o i l was selling at $2,50 per barrel, a decrease of $1.00 per barrel from the price prevailing at the opening of January, and further cuts in th^ f i r s t part of February reduced the price to $2.00 and in some cases $1.75. Reductions in prices annomced in January by purchasing companies in the major f i e l d s of District No. 11 (Dallas) brought prices down fror $3.50 per barrel to $2.00 and early in February there was a 234 -10further cut of 25 cents. X-3055 In sympathy with the price declines in crude o i l , refined products and fuel oil showed substantial declines in District No. 11 (Dallas) during the last 30 days. likewise f e l l off during January. Production of crude petroleum In District No. 11 (Dallas) the output was 12,746,315 barrels, which was 87,259 barrels less than the December figure. barrels. The January production in Oklahoma and Kansas was 10,710,500 In California, however, production during January established a new high record for the f i f t h successive month, and f o r the second time since July, 1$1$, monthly output exceeded consumption, and stored stocks were consequently increased. Refiners operations in Districts No. 10 (Kansas City) and 11 (Dallas) likewise showed a decrease. In Kansas and Oklahoma i t is reported that they have been reduced about 40$, a number of the smaller refineries being shut down entirely, while others are operating on shorter time. Pipe line purchases in most f i e l d s in District No. 11 (Dallas) were restricted to 50$ of the output. Field forces are being reduced by nearly a l l the large operators in the District, and as a result drilling operations have slowed up, particularly in North Texas. A decrease was likewise noted? in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming drilling operations during January, but the number of wells completed increased in California and the i n i t i a l daily production almost doubled. IRON JND STEEL. The iron and s t e e l industry continued in an unsettled condition. Production shows a further f a l l i n g off* Pig iron production during January was 2,401,845 tons, corresponding to an index number of 104, as compared with 2,703,855 tons, corresponding to an index number of 117, during December. More furnaces in District No. 4 (Cleveland) continue to go out of blast as a result of the continued f a l l in the price of pig iron, and the number of merchant furnaces now active i s the lowest in several years. 235 -11- 2-3055 Pig iron production in District No. 6 (Atlanta) is "down to the minimum and. i s s t i l l in excess of the "business that i s being bcoked". Steel mill operations in the District, however, are good, but for the country as a whole, the production of steel ingots decreased from 2,3^0,3^5 tons during December, corresponding to an index number of 100, to 2,201,866 tons during January, corresponding to an index number of The divergence between the independent producers and the United States Steel Corporation in the percentage of capacity operating continues. The respective percentages, i t i s stated from District No. 3 (Philadelphia) are 30 - and 80 - SOfo- Trie re were further general reductions in prices by independent steel producers early in February. Quotations are now 10 - 15fo below those of the United States Steel Corporation for most of the standard specification materials, plates, sheets and bars, but for rails and a few other finished products quotations have been maintained near those of the leading interest# While some new business resulted, uncertainty in the minds of consumers has tended to be augmented, and in many cases the e f f e c t has been to postpone purchases not immediately needed. The limited new business obtained, i t i s stated from District No. 3 (Philadelphia), is "only for present day needs." Despite the difference in the price quotations of the two groups of producers, the subsidiaries of.the • Corporation report negligible cancelation or suspensions due to this cause. The latter, however, is gradually cutting into i t s order book, unfilled orders at the close of January being 7J573»1o^ tons, as compared with 8,148,122 tons at the close of December, and the respective index numbers were 155 and l44„ It has not, hovevar ; as yet niatlg any reductions \ri wages, although the majority of independent producers have put in e f f e c t reductions varying from 15 to 25^. Interest in the industry at present centers upon the policy which i t w i l l pursue under the conditions which have developed. -12- NONFERROUS *4ETALS. X-3055 2 3 6 The nonferrous metal markets have remained, dull. Among the developments of most interest has been the plan for financing stocks of copper amounting to 400,000,000 lbs., which represents about two thirds of producersyholdings. This gave the market a touch of firmness until recently, but the other principal nonferrous metals in general have been weak. Prices of zinc ore declined SU.50 per ton during January in District No. 10 (Kansas City), but the price of lead ore increased $2.50 per ton during the same period. During February, however, the leading interest further reduced i t s price for refined lead (on the New York basis) to 4.4j£ per lb. Zinc production for the entire country during January decreased almost 1C$ from the December figure, bub supplies are plentiful. There has been a slowing down of production in Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, while metal mining in Colorado has been rather quiet since the opening of the year, and production in January was generally reduced, cwing to the low price of the base metals. January copper output reported by companies producing about 75^ of the refined copper in District No. 9 (Minneapolis) was 20,64.1,948 lbs., as compared with 21,027,549 lbs. during December and 31,957,146 lbs. during January, 1920- In District No. 12 (San Francisco), six out of fourteen reporting copper producers were not operating in December, while the remaining eight showed percentages of capacity operated up to 67$ with an average of 28$. COTTON TEXTILES. After a brief period of advance the price of raw cotton f e l l to new levels in February, and spot cotton was quoted at 13»6^ per lb. in New York. It is stated in the report from District No. 2 (New Yor^ that "the increased consumption and steadily advancing foreign exchange rates, factors that ordinarily would cause an advance, were o f f s e t by increased stocks on hand, by decreasing exports, by the reluctance of large buyers to place forward orders and by the somewhat freer offering of cotton by southern growers 237 1-3055 January statistics of consumption, issued by the Census Bureau indicate some resumption of activity during that month, as 366,270 bales of l i n t cotton were consumed in the mills of the United States, which was an increase of 71,419 "bales over December 1920* Consumption however, was s t i l l 225,651 bales below that of January of last year. The consumption of the New England nulls alone increased from 86,523 bales in December to 114,710 bales in January. Stocks on hand increased slightly from 535,700 bales to 548,700 bales, but were nevertheless s t i l l below normal. District No. 1 (Boston) states that quotations on finished cotton goods have "a general tendency to sag, and gray goods 32gr' 64 x 60"s, 535, are again quoted at 8^ with occasional sales in second Lauds at a shade oeiow tnis f i g ure." Purchases have been in small volume per buyer but there has been an increase in the number of sales of staple goods, largely for delivery within a period of three or four weeks. In District No. 3 (Philadelphia) a revival of activity was followed by reaction beginning in the latter part of January. It i s said that many mills received large orders and several sold their entire output for two and three months in advance during the earlier weeks ox the year. With a break in the raw cotton market, demand f e l l off and with the present lack of stabilization of quotations buying i s largely confined to f i l l i n g in stocks for which there i s an immediate demand. Manufacturers are again suffering cancellations of goods which are in transit or ready for shipment. The situation in the market for cotton goods i s reported to have been in large ever measure duplicated in the case of cotton yarns. increased The mills have how- their operating schedules-somewhat, and the recent falling off in demand has resulted in subsequent reduction. I11 District No. 5 (Bj.caL.onu.; textile mills increased their operating capacity during January and mills X-3055 making t i r e f a b r i c have orders to keep them running f u l l time, soma ox tijiot f o r a p e r i o d of six or s i i h t weeks. WOOLEN TEXTILES. The market for raw wool has shown l i t t l e change during •the month, and p r i c e s are near the lowest l e v e l s reached during the past year, although some of the f i n e r grades have advanced s l i g h t l y . The supply of wool in t h i s country i s estimated to be already s u f f i c i e n t f o r tire normal consumption of a year exclusive of the spring c l i p . D i s t r i c t No. 3 (.Phila- delphia) r e p o r t s increased demand for wool and yarn f o r the spring season, with a s l i g h t advance in p r i c e in January and February. Unemployment has diminished and wares have been reduced in a majority of the p l a n t s . and worsted mills in D i s t r i c t No. 1 Woolen (Boston) have not increased t h e i r r a t e of production during the past month, but top manufacturers are s t a t e d to have s u b s t a n t i a l orders ahead. Manufacturers of woolen cloth in D i s t r i c t No. 3 (Philadelphia) report an increase i n orders f o r women's dress goods, l a r g e l y f o r immediate d e l i v e r y , however. One m i l l i n t h e D i s t r i c t r e c e i v - ed orders f o r s p e c i a l t i e s and fancy goods for six months ahead, but p r e f e r r e d to l i m i t i t s orders to three months in view of e x i s t i n g u n c e r t a i n ties. Two other large manufacturers of dress goods reported that their mills were running at f u l l capacity with both day and m s h t s h i f t s . It is evident, however, that t h i s unusual a c t i v i t y i s not typical of the general s i t u a t i o n but i s the r e s u l t of highly s p e c i a l i z e d demand f o r goods f o r immediate d e l i v e r y . Some increase nas been noted in the D i s t r i c t in the de- mand for men's wear and these f a b r i c s have oeen s e l l i n g r a t h e r f r e e l y at a s l i g h t advance in p r i c e . SILK TEXTILES. A d i s t i n c t revival ox the demand f o r s i l k piece goods has r e s u l t e d in a c t i v i t y in the s i l k mills of D i s t r i c t s No. 2 -15- 2 3 9 x-3055 (New York) and No. 3 (Philadelphia). In Pater son, 4 ,000 looms, exclusive of 10,000 owned by mills which have failed or are completely closed, are running at 3 o f capacity as compared with 20$ on the 1st of January. Else- where in New Jersey looms were being operated at about 4-5% of capacity as compared with 33% a month ago. In District No. 3 (Philadelphia) i t is said "a number of mills having largely disposed of their finished stock have resumed operations after a lay off of many months". A liberal estimate of operating capacity is from 5^ to 55f - Few orders have been placed, except for immediate delivery, however, in view of the uncertainty of the market for raw s i l k . The price of silk f e l l during the month in the face of in- creased demand and "Shinshui" No. 1 ruled at $5-70 per pound as compared with $6.20 during January. The Silk Association of America reported the consumption of raw s i l k stored in New York at 22,176 bales during January 1921, an increase of 12,7^8 bales over the previous month. storage is placed at 31,&59 bales. The amount in Imports during the month totalled 9>^99 bales. HOSIERY. The break in cotton late in January and the subsequent f a l l in yarn prices resulted in a drop in hosiery prices following an advance . Many mills have tried to maintain the higher prices but there is no stable market in view of the existing uncertainties. Hence District No. 3 (Philadelphia) reports that at present orders are very small and have he en placed only when necessary to f i l l in depleted stocks. Reports received. from twenty-seven reporting firms which s e l l to the wholesale trade show a reduction in the value of the product manufactured during January ( s e l l ing price) of 7 5 « 5 a s compared with the same month in 1920, and .009^as compared with December. The value of finished products at the end of the month (selling price) was 3^.lf in excess of stocks held a year ago. There was, however, a reduction of 3*5$ as compared with the 240 -16previous month, X-3055 Unfilled orders on hand at the end of the month ( s e l l - ing price) had dropped 81$ as compared with the same month last year but an advance of 81,9% was recorded as compared with the preceding month. Ten reporting firms which s e l l ^to the retail trade showed a decrease in the value of the product manufactured of 93*2$ as compared with January 1920 and 73.8$ as compared with the previous month. Unfilled orders on hand at the end of the month (selling price) were 99*3$ less than during January 1920 but 90*2$ greater than during the previous month. UNDERWEAR. Underwear mills in District No. 3 (Philadelphia) experienced a fairly active demand during the latter part of January and'the f i r s t week in February, although orders were accepted only for immediate delivery. Since then demand has declined and d i f f i c u l t i e s in fixing upon a price.which will be satisfactory to a l l interests has delayed recovery as in the c ase of the hosiery industry. As f a l l lines will be opened the f i r s t week in March, i t is probable that a waiting policy will be pursued until that time. Firms manufacturing underwear located in District No. 3 (Philadelphia) recorded a decrease in the value of the product manufactured of 69.2$ in January as compared with January 1920 and 12.8^ as compared with the preceding month. Finished products on hand at the end of the month were 3^*2$ in excess of amounts held at the end of January 1920, and showed a negligible increase of 1.1$ as compared with the previous month of December. Orders booked during the month were 71»^$ in excess of the corresponding month last year and $.45$.above those for December. Unfilled orders at the end of the month were 72.3$ below the amounts outstanding at the end of January 1920 and 267.2$ in excess of those outstanding a t the end of the previous month. -17X-3055 SHOES M P T.KATmrrB. P r i c e s of a i d e s and s k i n s a f t e r a b r i e f p e r i o d o f a d v a n c e h a v e r e a c t e d , f a l l i n g t o such, a l o w p o i n t t h a t p a c k e r s a r e reported t o be t a n n i n g h i d e s f o r t h e i r own a c c o u n t r a t h e r t h a n S 3 l l a t uho rrovailing prices. Calf s k i n s f o r example, , 'vhich d r o p p e d f r o m a maximum q u o t a t i o n o f $ 1 . 0 5 p e r p o u n d t o 1 3 # a f t e r r i s i n g t o 20# d u r i n g J a n u a r y , f e l l again t o 17#. Tanners a r e u n a b l e to a v a i l i t y t o buy a t p r e s e n t b a r g a i n r a t e s t h e m s e l v e s of b e c a u s e o f l a r g e s t o c k s a l r e a d y on hand. Upper l e a t h e r e s p e c i a l l y i n n o v e l t y and f a n c y c o l o r s quantities i n t h e B o s t o n and I h i l a d e l p h i a m a r k e t s . reports, nowevjr t c t the o p p o r t u n - is be ins; s o l d i n l a r g e D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) s t o c k s o f l e a t h e r h e l d by s h o e m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n New E n g l a n d a r e by n o means normal f o r t h e s e a s o n , and t h e m a j o r p a r t o f t h e s t o c k s of t a n n e d l e a t h e r remains i n t h e hands of t a n n e r s and d e a l e r s . The n e g l i g i b l e e x p o r t demand f o r l e a t h e r i s l i k e w i s e an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r i n t h e way o f p r e v e n t i n g r e v i v a l i n t h e t a n n i n g i n d u s t r y . delphia) s t a t e s , however, D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a - t h a t the t a n n e r s i n t h a t r e g i o n h a v e a s a w h o l e i n c r e a s e d t h e i r o u t p u t , and a f t e r w a r e c u t s r a n g i n g f r o m 25®; t o 3 0 $ a n d e v e n t o iOfo i n some c a s e s , a r e e m p l o y i n g a l a r g e r number o f men. All reports re- c e i v e d a g r e e i n s t a t i n ? t h a t i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y i n t h e b o o t and s h o e i n d u s t r y was e x p e r i e n c e d i n J a n u a r y . I n l a r g e p a r t t h e i n c r e a s e d demand was f o r t o o d s t o be made p r i o r t o E a s t e r , a n d n o v e l t y s t y l e s w e r e p r e d o m i n a n t . Ho. 1 ( B o s t o n ) h o w e v e r , p r o d u c t i o n on t h e a v e r a g e was rot o p e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y and s h i p m e n t s a b o u t e q u a l l e d o u t p u t . In D i s t r i c t much a b o v e 50% o f I n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) a l t h o u g h s u b s t a n t i a l o r d e r s i n a d v a n c e o f E a s t e r h a -b o s e n placed, soma f i n n s ' r e p o r t much more a c t i v e D i s t r i c t No. 3 (St. inquiries 'than o t h e r s . In Louis) three l e a d i n g manufacturers have had heavy orders f o r w o m e n ' s f a n c y n o v e l t y g o o d s f o r d e l i v e r y by A p r i l , but J a n u a r y s h i p m e n t s w e r e f r o m 40% t o 5 2 . 5 $ be I o n t h o s e o f J a n u a r y 1920. " l i e n ' s d r e s s s h o e s , 343 -16- X-3055 f a r m f o o t w e a r a n d t h e g e n e r a l r u n of u t i l i t a r i a n g o o d s a r e d u l l , orders f o r spring consumption being n i l . L a s t y e a r t h i s c l a s s of g o o d s had b e e n s h i p p e d i n J a n u a r y f o r A p r i l and May c o n s u m p t i o n " . LUMBER• The market f o r lumber h a s shown some improvement due l a r g e - l y to favorable weather c o n d i t i o n s . R e p o r t s f r o m D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) and D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( P a l l r . s ) s t a t e t h a t t h e v a l u e of b u s i n e s s i n S o u t h e r n Pine i s i n c r e a s i n g . R e p o r t s f r o m 135 m i l l s i n D i s t r i c t No, 6 ( A t l a n t a ) f o r t h e w e e k e n d i n g F e b r u a r y 4 show a c t u a l p r o d u c t i o n s t i l l n o r m a l and s h i p m e n t s 33*^3$ b e l o w normal p r o d u c t i o n . 35*'$ below The 2 8 m i l l s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l l a s ) r e c e i v e d o r d e r s e q u i v a l e n t t o 7 2 $ of t h e i r normal 24 p r o d u c t i o n , w h i l e f o r t h e p r e c e d i n g 4 w e e k s t h e o r d e r s b o o k e d by/ r e p o r t i n g m i l l s w e r e o n l y 4 6 $ of n o r m a l p r o d u c t i o n . The g a i n i n new b u s i n e s s r e s u l t e d i n i n c r e a s i n g t h e January output f o r the r e p o r t i n g m i l l s . The p r o d u c t i o n was o n l y 36$ b e l o w n o r m a l , w h i l e f o r t h e month of December i t was 47$ b e l o w normal. U n f i l l e d o r d e r s r e p o r t e d b y t h e s e 28 m i l l s w e r e 3 6 , 7 8 3 , 0 C 0 f e e t a s 24 compared w i t h 3 2 > 3 5 8 , 0 0 0 f e e t r e p o r t e d by m i l l s on December 31» In o t h e r s e c t i o n s , h o w e v e r , improvement i s n o t y e t p e r c e p t i b l e . D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) s t a t e s t h a t lumber d e a l e r s h a v e r e c e i v e d b u t f e w o r d e r s . No,. 2 ( S t . District L o u i s ) and No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) a l s o r e p o r t d u l l m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s and s l a c k e n i n g i n b u y i n g b y r e t a i l y a r d s . I n D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) t h e lumber c u t f o r J a n u a r y was o n l y 45$ o f t h a t of a y e a r a g o . b e r m e n ' s a s s o c i a t i o n s o f D i s t r i c t N o . 12 ( S a n F r a n c i s c o ) The f o u r lum- report January pro- d u c t i o n 4 3 . 6 $ l e s s t h a n f o r December and now a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e - h a l f production, but i t of normal i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t $ 0 $ of t h e m i l l s w i l l b e i n o p e r a t i o n by t h e m i d d l e of F e b r u a r y . Orders f o r l u m b e r r e c e i v e d d u r i n g J a n u a r y were 2 6 . 2 $ g r e a t e r t h a n i n December and p r i c e s showed a n upward t e n d e n c y . One h u n d r e d f o u r t e e n m i l l s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e West C o a s t Lumberman*s A s s o c i a t i o n r e p o r t e d _lo_ X-3055 2 4 3 f o r the 4 weeks ended January 29, a cut of 1 3 0 , 8 6 5 , 0 0 0 board f e e t , ship- m e n t s o f 1 3 3 , 6 4 5 , 0 0 0 f e e t and o r d e r s 1 4 0 , 2 2 1 , 0 0 0 f e e t . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g w i t h 116 m i l l s reporting f i g u r e s f o r the p r e c e d i n g 4 w e e k ^ w e r e as f o l l o w s : 1 8 7 , 1 4 2 , 0 0 0 f e e t ; 183,669,000 feet; 114,737,000 feet. BUILDING OPERATIONS. Building operations throughout the United States h a v e d e c l i n e d d u r i n g t h e p a s t month. The r e d u c t i o n i n t h e v o l u m e o f C o n s t r u c - t i o n i s n o t , h o w e v e r , a s ? r e a t a s t h e f i g u r e s may i n d i c a t e , siderable f a l l due t o t h e c o n - i n t h e p r i c e s o f b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s t h i s y e a r f r o m t h e abnorm- a l l y h i g h l e v e l s a y e a r ago. Some D i s t r i c t s h a v e r e p o r t e d t y i n t h e b u i l d i n g o f h o m e s , but i n D i s t r i c t ITo. warded d u r i n g January f o r r e s i d e n t i a l very l i t t l e 2 (New York) c o n t r a c t s a - b u i l d i n g i n New York S t a t e and N o r t h e r n New J e r s e y w e r e g r e a t e r i n v a l u e by a b o u t 9 0 s t h a n i n December. This r e p r e - s e n t s a b o u t 4 0 $ o f t h e a g g r e g a t e a s compared t o 25.8% i n December. from 13 l a r g e c i t i e s i n D i s t r i c t No. activi- 3 (Philadelphia) Reports show t h a t b u i l d i n g p e r - m i t s i s s u e d d u r i n g J a n u a r y w e r e v a l u e d a t $ 1 , 9 1 7 , 5 4 8 a s compared t o $ 2 , 0 1 8 , 6 9 0 i n December and $ 4 , 9 3 9 , 7 8 4 i n J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 0 . Tuis large d e c l i n e i n b u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y was p a r a l l e l e d b y i n a c t i v i t y i n t h e l i s a t e r and b r i c k manufacturing trades, No. as w e l l as the w h o l e s a l e hardware trade. 5 (Richmond) phe t o t a l v a l u a t i o n o f p e r m i t s i s s u e d d u r i n g J a n u a r y d e - c r e a s e d 45.4% a s compared w i t h t h e same p e r i o d o f 1 9 2 0 . been l i t t l e p r o v i s i o n f o r a d d i t i o n a l homes, i t to In D i s t r i c t is Although there h^s reported that be d e v e l o p i n g a s t r o n g movement t o w a r d home c o n s t r u c t i o n , and'various plans f o r b r i n g i n g t h i s h i ~ h l y d e s i r e d r e s u l t are being put forward". No. "there appears In D i s t r i c t 6 ( A t l a n t a ) w h i l e t h e r e a p p e a r s t o be c o n s i d e r a b l e i n c r e a s e i n v a l u a t i o n of p e r m i t s i s s u e d i n some of t h e s m a l l e r t o w n s , p r a c t i c a l l y a l l ' t h e l a r g e r cities show d e c r e a s e s w n i c h make t h e t o t a l v a l u a t i o n f o r t h e D i s t r i c t v ^ r y rruch l o w e r than a y e a r ago. D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t , L o u i s ) showed t h e v a l u e of —30X-3055 permits i s s u e d i n the four c h i e f c i t i e s d u r i n g J a n u a r y 1 9 2 1 t o be $ 1 , 4 8 8 , 8 0 4 w h i c h was an i n c r e a s e o v e r t h e December f i g u r e o f $ 9 1 5 , 4 7 1 b u t was c o n s i d e r a b l y under the l a r g e v a l u a t i o n of January, o p e r a t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No, 1 9 2 0 , w h i c h was : 2,391,903- Building 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) when m e a s u r e d both i n number and v a l u e o f p e r m i t s i s s u e d d e c r e a s e d s u b s t a n t i a l l y when compared t o both Decemb e r and J a n u a r y , 1920* I n D i s t r i c t Kb. 1 0 ( K a n s a s C i t y ) t h e e s t i m a t e d v a l u e of b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s i s s u e d was 4 8 . 2% l e s s d u r i n g J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 1 t h a n f o r t h a t month a y e a r ago* The d e c l i n e Wc.s e v e n more marked i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l - l a s ) where a d e c r e a s e o f No, 12, 53* 1% o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d . In D i s t r i c t ( S a n F r a n c i s c o ) , "January 1921 p e r m i t s show a ~±~x* 2% d e c r e a s e i n v ^ l u e issued"* Compared t o J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 0 , and a 1 0 * 3 ^ d e c r e a s e i n t h e number of r e m i t s / • • -21- x-3055 245 X WHQLE54LS TRADE. As c o m p a r e d w i t h J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 0 , t h e s a l e s of r e p o r t i n g w h o l e s a l e . f i r m s , a v e r a g e d by l i n e s f o r t h e e i g h t D i s t r i c t s f r o m which r e ports are secured, 1 r e g i s t e r d e c l i n e s w i t h t h e s i n g l e e x c e p t i o n o f two w h o l e s a l e r s o f a u t o s u p p l i e s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l l a s ) . other hand, g a i n s a r e r e c o r d e d a s c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e m o n t h o f December i n a number of i n s t a n c e s . ^ On t h e I n D i s t r i c t No. 5 ( R i c h m o n d ) , f o r e x a m p l e , eight w h o l e s a l e g r o c e r y f i r m s r e p o r t an a d v a n c e i n a v e r a g e s a l e s of 4 , 3 $ a s compared w i t h December. I n D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) , fo. example, dry goods s a l e s were on t h e a v e r a g e 3 5 - 1 $ above t h o s e f o r December, w i t h thirteen firms reporting, and wholesale hardware s a l e s i n c r e a s e d 8 . 4 $ for the D i s t r i c t with ten firms reporting, , t o A t l a n t a and N a s h v i l l e . a l t h o u g h i n c r e a s e s were c o n f i n e d W h o l e s a l e s h o e s a l e s were l i k e w i s e 6 . 1 $ a b o v e December a v e r a g e , w i t h n i n e f i r m s r e p o r t i n g . D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) s t a t e s t h a t a l t h o u g h J a n u a r y hardware s a l e s were from 24$ t o 60$ below J a n u a r y , 1920, i n c r e a s e s were r e g i s t e r e d a s compared w i t h December. C i t y b u s i n e s s was r e p o r t e d b e t t e r than t h a t of the r u r a l d i s t r i c t s , ing f o r the f u t u r e had a s y e t begun. and no b u y - I n D i s t r i c t No. 1 0 ( K a n s a s C i t y ) the h a r d w a r e s a l e s of f o u r r e p o r t i n g f i r m s i n c r e a s e d s l i g h t l y a s compared w i t h December, b u t b u y i n g r e m a i n e d s t i l l s o l e l y f o r immediate r e q u i r e m e n t s . An i n c r e a s e of 5 0 - 1 $ i n t h e s a l e s of t h r e e w h o l e s a l e m i l l i n e r y f i r m s a l s o o c c u r r e d d u r i n g the month. I n D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l l a s ) i n c r e a s e s were t h e r u l e f o r a l l r e p o r t i n g l i n e s a s c o m p a r e d w i t h December e x c e p t i n g w h o l e s a l e , g r o c e r i e s f o r which f i v e f i r m s r e p o r t an a v e r a g e d e c r e a s e of 4$ and d r u g s , f o r which f i v e c o n c e r n s r e p o r t e d a n a v e r a g e d e c r e a s e of .006$. The i n c r e a s e s i n d r y goods a n d hardware amounted t o 2 0 . 6 $ and 9 * 6 $ respectively, three firms r e p o r t i n g f o r each l i n e , while s a l e s of farm It i m p l e m e n t s , two f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , a d v a n c e d 1 7 - 9 $ ; f u r n i t u r e , reporting, showed a n i n c r e a s e of 7 . 9 $ a n d a u t o s u p p l i e s , two f i r m s two f i r m s 246 reporting, 17,5$- 22 ~ x-505j I n D i s t r i c t No. 1 2 (San F r a n c i s c o ) t h e o n l y i n c r e a s e o v e r December s a l e s was c o n f i n e d t o w h o l e s a l e g r c Q e r i e s , w h i c h a d v a n c e d s l i g h t l y by 1 . 7 $ . As previously s t a t e d , the declines i n s a l e s a s compared with January a n d a y e a r a g o , a r e w i t h one e x c e p t i o n u n i v e r s a l , a n d a r e i n a l l heavy. cases quite I n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) t h e d e c r e a s e i n s a l e s f o r t w e n t y - t h r e e r e p o r t i n g h a r d w a r e f irziis a m o u n t e d t o 17«4/6 a n d a d e c r e a s e of 2 6 $ a l s o o c c u r r e d a s compared w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g December. The d e c r e a s e s a r e a t t r i b u t e d i n large part to continued dullness i n the building t r a d e s . l o s s e s i n s a l e s of The f o r t y - n i n e r e p o r t i n g w h o l e s a l e g r o c e r y f i r m s amounted t o 3 1 . 9 ^ a s compared w i t h a y e a r a g o , a n d 11.5% a s compared w i t h December. L o s s e s a r e n a t u r a l l y g r e a t e s t i n s e c t i o n s t h a t f e e l most a c u t e l y t h e w i d e s p r e a d u n e m p l o y m e n t e x i s t i n g i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 staple groceries are . (Philadelphia). Standard s a i d t o b e i n t h e most s t e a d y demand w h i l e l i n e s s u c h a s h i g h c l a s s canned goods a r e n o t t a k e n even a t r e d u c e d p r i c e s . In District No. 4 ( C l e v e l a n d ) d e c r e a s e s i n s a l e s a s compared w i t h J a n u a r y , 1920 were 2 0 . 1 $ f o r seven hardware f i r m s , 5 1 . 6 $ f o r f i v e dry goods s t o r e s and 3 6 . 7 $ for f i f t e e n grocery stores. I n D i s t r i c t No. 5 ( R i c h m o n d ) d e c r e a s e s r a n g e d f r o m 2 3 . 9 $ i n t h e s a l e s of e i g h t w h o l e s a l e g r o c e r y h o u s e s t o a d r o p of 77-6% i n t h e s a l e s of e i g h t w h o l e s a l e s h o e f i r m s . H a r d w a r e s a l e s w e r e 77*31° l e s s than a year ago f o r nine concerns reporting, w h i l e f u r n i t u r e s a l e s had dropped for five reporting establishments. In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) t h e d e c r e a s e i n w h o l e s a l e hardware s a l e s a s compared w i t h J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 0 was h e a v i e r t h a n i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) a s t e n f i r m s showed a n a v e r a g e d e c r e a s e of 3 8 . 7 $ . t o 36.7$, In groceries, ten firms reporting; i n shoes, and i n dry g o o d s 4 1 . 7 $ , of 1 1 $ i n g r o c e r i e s t h e d e c r e a s e amounted 59-6%, n i n e f i r m s r e p o r t i n g ; thirteen firms reporting. There was a l s o a deorv-vse s a l e s a s c o n p a r e d w i t h December, but i n g e n e r a l t h e r e -23- X-3055 was e v i d e n c e of r e v i v e d a c t i v i t y i n J a n u a r y a s compared w i t h t h e p r e - ceding month. D i s t r i c t No* 7 ( C h i c a g o ) r e c o r d e d l o s s e s of 2 9 * 5 $ i n a v e r a g e s a l e s of w h o l e s a l e g r o c e r i e s , compared w i t h J a n u a r y , 1 9 2 0 ; twenty-one f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , as 6l%2$ i n t h e c a s e of t w e l v e d r y g o o d s h o u s e s , and 52$ f o r n i n e w h o l e s a l e s h o e f i r m s . D i s t r i c t No. 10 ( K a n s a s C i t y ) r e p o r t s l o s s e s i n s a l e s of w h o l e s a l e e s t a b l i s h m e n t s r a n g i n g f r o m 32-7% i n t h e c a s e of g r o c e r y f i r m s t o 6 9 . 9 $ i n t h e c a s e of f u r n i t u r e h o u s e s , two f i r m s r e p o r t i n g . D i s t r i c t No. 11 f D a l l a s ) g i v e s a v e r a g e l o s s e s f o r sales in reporting l i n e s as follows: Groceries Hardware D r y Goods Drugs Furniture Farm I m p l e m e n t s 5 finsos r e p o r t i n g 3 " " 11 3 " 5 " " 2 " " n 2 " I n D i s t r i c t No. 12 ( S a n F r a n c i s c o ) w i t h 36-4$ 3^*8$ 09 * 3$ 17.6$ 26.3$ 71$ t h e s i n g l e e x c e p t i o n of t h e w h o l e s a l e g r o c e r y t r a d e a l l r e p o r t i n g l i n e s showed d e c r e a s e s a s c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g month a s w e l l a s w i t h a y e a r ago* Buying c o n t i n u e d l i g h t a n d h e a v y d e c l i n e s f r o m December s a l e s w e r e l a r g e s t i n t h e c a s e of ten auto t i r e s , f i r m s r e p o r t i n g ; dry goods, eleven firms r e p o r t i n g ; f u r n i ture, t w e l v e f i r m s r e p o r t i n g ; s t a t i o n e r y , e l e v e n f i r m s r e p o r t i n g ; and hardware, twenty-three firms reporting. 66.7$; 2 8 . 7 $ ; 2 2 . 9 $ ; 2 2 . 4 $ , and 13.3$* The p e r c e n t a g e d e c r e a s e s w e r e L e s s e r d e c l i n e s o c c u r r e d , and i n t h e c a s e of s h o e s , t w e l v e f i r m s , and d r u g s f o u r f i r m s r e p o r t i n g , were 7 . 1 $ and 4 . 3 $ r e s p e c t i v e l y . were as f o l l o w s : 57*0$, s t a t i o n e r y , the l o s s e As c o m p a r e d w i t h a y e a r a g o , d e c r e a s e Hardware, 2 9 . 5 $ ; d r y goods, 46.6$, drugs, 6.8$, f u r n i t u r e , 35-0$, auto t i r e s , 32.7$• 12,7$, shoes -24RETAIL TRADE. Be t a i l x-3055 t r a d e d u r i n g J a n u a r y h a s "been c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y a g e n e r a l tendency toward a lower p r i c e l e v e l , and t h e r e h a s b e e n an i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e p u b l i c i s s h o w i n g a t e n d e n c y t o w a r d normal p u r c h a s ing, but i s s t i l l d i s c r i m i n a t i n g as t o the q u a l i t y of goods. t h e r e p o r t s from the s e v e r a l Federal B e s e r v e D i s t r i c t s i s D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) , the t>ublic i s b e i n g f e l t , T y p i c a l of t h a t from "the r e c e n t wave of economy on t h e p a r t o f b u t where p r i c e s l o o k c h e a p , or e v e n r e a s o n a b l e , t h e r e i s a good r e s p o n s e on t h e p a r t o f t h e s h o p p e r s . " The v a l u e o f n e t s a l e s i n g e n e r a l d e c r e a s e d when compared w i t h t h e same month l a s t y e a r , i n p a r t i c u l a r i n the West, but the lower p r i c e l e v e l p r e v a i l i n g o f f s e t s the d e c r e a s e t o a v e r y g r e a t e x t e n t s o t h a t t h e volume o f s a l e s i s p r a c t i c a l l y a t t h e same l e v e l . There h a s , i n s a l e s i n some e a s t e r n d i s t r i c t s , D i s t r i c t No. 1 ( B o s t o n ) i t was 4 . 5 $ , however, b e e n an i n c r e a s e even at p r e s e n t v a l u e s . t h e i n c r e a s e was 1 . 5 $ ; Thus i n i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) and i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) , ]>.!%. On t h e o t h e r h a n d t h e r e was a d e c r e a s e o f 5 - 3 $ i n D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New Y o r k ) ; 12.3% i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) ; 11.6% i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 ( K a n s a s C i t y ) , 1 4 , 3 $ i n D i s t r i c t No, 1 2 ( S a n F r a n c i s c o ) . The d e c r e a s e o f a t t h e c l o s e of 4 J a n u a r y shows t h a t m e r c h a n t s a r e s t i l l and making b u t f e w r e p l a c e m e n t s . and s t o c k s on hand liquidating stocks Orders f o r f u t u r e d e l i v e r y a l t h o u g h s h o w i n g r e n e w e d a c t i v i t y i n d i c a t e on t h e w h o l e t h a t m e r c h a n t s a r e p l a c i n g o r d e r s v e r y c a u t i o u s l y and a r e e n d e a v o r i n g t o o p e r a t e on what i s r e g a r d e d as a safe b a s i s . PRICES. W h o l e s a l e p r i c e s i n J a n u a r y d e c l i n e d somewhat l e s s r a p i d l y t h a n i n December, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i n d e x numbers c o m p i l e d b y t h e B u r e a u of Labor S t a t i s t i c s and t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Board. In February, however, -25- ''-3055 j u d g i n g b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e A g e n t s ' r e p o r t s t h e r a t e o f d e c l i n e was accelerated again. During January the i n c r e a s e which occurred i n the p r i c e of c e r t a i n a g r i c u l t u r a l commodities, some v a r i e t i e s o f l i v e such as wheat, s t o c k was i n l a r g e measure r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e l e s s r a p i d d e c l i n e i n g e n e r a l p r i c e s d u r i n g t h a t month. however, c o t t o n and In February, t h e temporary r i s e i n t h e p r i c e s of1 c e r t a i n o f t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s was f o l l o w e d by d e c l i n e s , a s was n o t a b l y t h e c a s e o f c o t t o n and w h e a t , and a t t h e same t i m e l a r g e r e d u c t i o n s were made i n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t l i n e s s u c h a s i r o n and s t e e l p r o d u c t s , crude a n d r e f i n e d o i l s , a n d many t y p e s of building materials. P r i c e d e v e l o p m e n t s d u r i n g r e c e n t months h a v e d i f f e r e d s t r i k i n g l y from i n d u s t r y to i n d u s t r y . I n t h e c a s e of t e x t i l e s and l e a t h e r s , were among t h e e a r l i e s t t o b e r e d u c e d i n p r i c e , still exists. which a p e r i o d of i n s t a b i l i t y P r i c e s are not being reduced as rapidly as during e a r l i e r months, b u t v e r y l i t t l e confidence i s f e l t in present quotations. It is t h e g e n e r a l o p i n i o n t h a t t h e r e c e n t d e c l i n e i n d o m e s t i c raw c o t t o n p r i c e s i s due t o t h e f a c t t h a t growers a r e s e l l i n g more f r e e l y t h a n i n r e c e n t higher months. F i n e g r a d e s o f w o o l a r e q u o t e d s l i g h t l y / t h a n a month o r so a g o , b u t c o a r s e r g r a d e s a r e s t i l l a t t h e i r r e c e n t l o w mark or a c t u a l l y on t h e decline. C e r t a i n grades of h i d e s , notably calf skins, are quoted s l i g h t l y h i g h e r t h a n l a s t month b u t most g r a d e s c o n t i n u e t o d e c l i n e . Silk prices h a v e shown r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y d u r i n g t h e l a s t s i x w e e k s . P r i c e s of a g r i c u l t u r a l commodities, although not showing a s rapid d e c l i n e s a s d u r i n g e a r l i e r months, a r e i n g e n e r a l month a g o , somewhat l o w e r t h a n a wheat and r y e s h o w i n g t h e g r e a t e s t s t r e n g t h . Live stock p r i c e s have l i k e w i s e v a r i e d c o n s i d e r a b l y during r e c e n t weeks, but the tendency appears to have b e e n towards lower l e v e l s . x-3055 -26- 250 Lumber a n d o t h e r b u i l d i n g m a t e r i a l s . w h i c h w e r e n o t a f f e c t e d byp r i c e r e a d j u s t m e n t a s e a r l y a s many o t h e r c o m m o d i t i e s , d e c l i n e d c o n s i d e r a b l y i n January b u t , stable i n t h e c a s e o f lumber a t l e a s t , w e r e r e l a t i v e l y / during the f i r s t weeks of February. In f a c t from s o u t h e r n d i s t r i c t s r e p o r t s a r e made t h a t t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e b u y i n g demand, a l t h o u g h n o t e n o u g h t o c a u s e an i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s . Cement a n d b r i c k c o n t i n u e t o d e c l i n e . P r o b a b l y t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t p r i c e c h a n g e s of t h e month a r e t h e r e d u c t i o n s i n s e m i - f i n i s h e d and f i n i s h e d s t e e l p r o d u c t s , as quoted by the i n d e p e n d e n t s t e e l m a n u f a c t u r e r s , and t h o s e i n crude and r e f i n e d o i l s , S t e e l p r o d u c t s have b e e n o n the d e c l i n e c o n t i n u a l l y f o r s e v e r a l months . b u t t h e r e d u c t i o n i n c r u d e o i l p r i c e s i s a n e v e n t of t h e l a s t f e w w e e k s . As i n t h e c a s e o f c o a l , p r i c e s o f c r u d e o i l a n d i t s d e r i v a t i v e s have de- c l i n e d b e c a u s e o f t h e r e d u c t i o n i n i n d u s t r i a l demand. The i n d e x number c o m p i l e d b y t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B o a r d f o r t h e p u r p o s e of i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p a r i s o n s shows a d e c l i n e o f 5 $ wholesale prices i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n J a n u a r y , a s compared w i t h a 1 0 $ d e c l i n e i n December, The i n d e x number now s t a n d s a t 6 2 $ a b o v e t h e 1 9 1 3 l e v e l . o f t h e B u r e a u o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s r e g i s t e r e d 177 All January, The i n d e x number ( b a s e d upon something over commoditie®} s h o w i n g a 6% d e c l i n e f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s month. g r o u p s o f c o m m o d i t i e s i n t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B o a r d c o m p u t a t i o n showed a d e c l i n e f o r January except imports. I n t h e c a s e of imported goods t h e i n d e x number showed a n a d v a n c e o f 2 p o i n t s o v e r t h e p r e c e d i n g month. Retail p r i c e s of f o o d d e c l i n e d 3 $ d u r i n g J a n u a r y a c c o r d i n g t o the i n d e x number o f t h e B u r e a u o f l a b o r S t a t i s t i c s b a s e d u p o n f o r t y - t h r e e a r t i c l e s of f o o d i n f i f t y - o n e c i t i e s . above 1913 p r i c e s i n January, 1921. The i n d e x number s t o o d a t 72% x-3055 -27- EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS. I n D i s t r i c t No, 1 ( B o s t o n ) r e p o r t t h e growth of unemployment on a l a r g e s c a l e , n i n g t h e p a s t m o n t h h a s shown the f i r s t to the s i t u a t i o n dur- a s l i g h t but i r r e g u l a r improvement." The r e s u m p t i o n o f o p e r a t i o n s b y a n u m b e r o f l a r g e t e x t i l e m i l l s a n d t h e i n c r e a s e d a c t i v i t y o f many s h o e f a c t o r i e s a r e the chief causes of t h e c h a n g e f o r t h e L e t t e r . twenty-two S t r i k e s On t h e o t h e r h a n d , o c c u r r e d b e t w e e n J a n u a r y 15 a n d F e b r u a r y 17 i n t h e S t a t e of M a s s a c h u s e t t s , t h e most i m p o r t a n t b e i n g t h a t of t h e garment w o r k e r s which h e l p e d t o o f f s e t the g a i n s i n numbers r e p o r t e d employed. It is said that in New York S t a t e p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e s f o r F e b r u a r y a t l e a s t , indicate n o a p p r e c i a b l e d e c » e a o e 1% auiabers e m p l o y e d i n J'aaaary a s c o m p a r e d w i t h the p r e c e d i n g month, the ti.es*eases occurring in the transport l i n e s and i n the b u i l d i n g t r a d e s , have been about c o u n t e r b a l a n c e d by the a d d i t i o n t o t h e w o r k i n g f o r c e s of t h e u p - s t a t e shoe f a c t o r i e s a n d of the t e x t i l e m i l l s . So f a r u n e m p l o y m e n t i n D i s t r i c t No. J ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) c o n t i n u e s to be w i d e s p r e a d . The P u b l i c E m p l o y m e n t B u r e a u o p e r a t e d b y t h e P e n n s y l v a n i a S t a t e D e p a r t m e n t of Labor e s t i m a t e s t h e numbers unemp l o y e d on F e b r u a r y 1 5 , a s f o l l o w s ; * Philadelphia Altoona Harrisburg Johnstown Williamsport Scranton 80,000 19,625 20,360 7,700 U.H5 13,100 251 252 -28- x-3055 The m e t a l s a n d m a c h i n e r y t r a d e s a n d common l a b o r show t h e l a r g e s t numbers u n e m p l o y e d . In the southeastern s e c t i o n s of the country, No. 5 ( R i c h m o n d ) a n d D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) District report aa e x c e s s supply of l a b o r n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h e f a c t t h a t many t e x t i l e m i l l s h a v e r e s u m e d o p e r a t i o n s and o n p r a c t i c a l l y f u l l time. In the mining c e n t e r s of D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) 1 3 , 0 9 7 men were e m p l o y e d b y r e p o r t i n g c o m p a n i e s i n January, 1921, a redaction of a s compared w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s month, a n d 3 8 . 6 f c a s compared w i t h a y e a r a g o . A l t h o u g h D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l l a s ) r e p o r t s c o n s i d e r a b l e unemployment i n c i t i e s o f o v e r 3 , 0 0 0 p o p u l a t i o n , it. i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t a shortage of a g r i c u l t u r a l l a b o r i s imminent i n s o u t h w e s t and w e s t Texas u n l e s s a s h i f t from o t h e r D i s t r i c t s s h o u l d o c c u r . D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) the l a s t t o f e e l In the e f f e c t s of unemployment, t h e s i t u a t i o n i s s l i g h t l y b e t t e r t h a n i n December a n d w i t h t h e r e s u m p t i o n of a g r i c u l t u r a l o p e r a t i o n s and the r e o p e n i n g of the lumber m i l l s improvement i s e x p e c t e d . The U n i t e d S t a t e s Employment S e r v i c e e s t i m a t e d t h a t 6 3 , 7 0 0 men w e r e u n e m p l o y e d i n t h e t h r e e S t a t e s , W a s h i n g t o n , O r e g o n a n d California, 1, 1921, some o f whom h a d d r i f t e d i n f r o m o t h e r S t a t e s - On J a n u a r y t h e n u m b e r s a c t u a l l y e m p l o y e d i n t h e s e t h r e e S t a t e s were IS.if t h o s e e n g a g e d i n work on t h e same d a t e a y e a r a g o . of x-3055 -29PWAFCIAL. F i n a n c i a l l y t h e d e v e l opments of t h e month h a v e "been of a negative character. C a l l money r a t e s h a v e "been, on t h e w h o l e , r a t h e r higher than during January, w h i l e t h e r e has been l i t t l e e i t h e r f o r c o m m e r c i a l or t i m e f u n d s . change m charges Some o f f e r i n g s of h i g h g r a d e s e c u r i - t i e s h a v e t e e n q u i c k l y d i s p o s e d of a l t h o u g h t h e r a t e s c h a r g e d f o r them were f u l l y a s h i g h a s t h o s e w h i c h were r e q u i r e d d u r i n g r e c e n t m o n t h s f o r t h e f l o t a t i o n o f o t h e r i s s u e s of t h e same c l a s s e s . Only a m o d e r a t e demand f o r i n - vestment s e c u r i t i e s has prevailecL S p e c u l a t i v e a c t i v i t y h a s t e e n a t a compare a t i v e l y l o w e 15b and mar ke t c o n d i t i o n s h a v e t e e n l a r g e l y p r o f e s s i o n a l . f o r e i g n t r a d e t h e r e h a s t e e n but l i t t l e ported as rather t e t t e r improvement. i n some d i r e c t i o n s * In C o l l e c t i o n s are r e - Conditions in the c o u n t r i e s where m o r a t o r i a e x i s t have n o t m a t e r i a l l y a l t e r e d . The p o s i t i o n of f o r e i g n t a n k s h a s shown some r e d u c t i o n t o t h i n d e p o s i t s and n o t e s t u t t h e c h a n g e s have not teen s u f f i c i e n t l y great r e s t ion* t o i n d i c a t e a d e f i n i t e t u r n i n any new d i ~ F u r t h e r e f f o r t h a s t e e n ^ade i n t h e d i r e c t i o n of p o r a t i o n s d e s i g n e d f o r t h e l o n g t e r m f i n a n c i n g of e x p o r t s * has, organising corForeign exchange o n t he w h o l e $ t e e n i n a s t r o n g e r c o n d i t i o n t h a n d u r i n g J a n u a r y the t r e n d of demand s t e r l i n g q u o t a t i o n s t e i n g a l m o s t s t e a d i l y upward d u r i n g t h e f i r s t p a r t o f t h e month w h i l e c o n t i n e n t a l c u r r e n c i e s h a v e t e e n f o r t h e most p a r t f i r m e r , n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h a t t h e market demand h a s d u r i n g a c o n s i d e r a t l p a r t of t h e t i m e t e e n d u l l * FOREIGN TRAD#, With t h e p u b l i c a t i o n t y t h e D e p a r t m e n t of the detailed f i g u r e s t y c o m m o d i t i e s f o r Decernter, i t m a r i z e t h e r e s u l t s of our f o r e i g n t r a d e i n 1 9 2 0 . Commerce of i s now p o s s i b l e t o sum- I n p o r t s of m e r c h a n d i s e dur ing the year are g i v e n as $5,279*398,211 w h i l e e x p o r t s are p l a c e d at $ 8 , 2 2 8 , 7 5 9 , 7 4 8 a n e x c e s s of e x p o r t s o f $ 2 , 9 4 9 * 3 6 1 , 5 3 7 . The e x c e s s of e x p o r t 2 54. x-3055 -30- t h e r e f o r e s h o w s a d e c i d e d r e d u c t i o n compared w i t h a n e x c e s s o f a l i t t l e over 4 b i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n 1919• T h e r e was t h u s a t e n d e n c y l a s t y e a r toward a more b a l a n c e d c o n d i t i o n o f o u r i n t e r n a t i o n a l t r a d e . ports t h a t we r e c e i v e i s O n l y t h r o u g h im- i t p o s s i b l e f o r f o r e i g n c o u n t r i e s t o p a y us t h e v e r y l a r g e b a l a n c e s now o u t s t a n d i n g . For t h i s r e a s o n , the steady d e c l i n e s i n i m p o r t s t h a t h a v e b e e n r e p o r t e d f r o m month t o month s i n c e J u n e 1 9 2 0 , when i m p o r t s w e r e a t t h e i r p e a k , a r e n o t s o e n c o u r a g i n g . Taking the q u a n t i t i e s of goods t r a n s p o r t e d i n s t e a d of v a l u e s the B o a r d ' s f o r e i g n t r a d e i n d e x s h o w s t h a t i n 1 9 2 0 t h e v o l u m e o f e x p o r t s of 2 9 p r i n c i p a l c o m m o d i t i e s d e c l i n e d a b o u t 9 $ compared w i t h 1 9 1 9 * Similarly t h e v o l u m e o f i m p o r t s o f 2 5 p r i n c i p a l c o m m o d i t i e s i s shown t o h a v e i n creased but 0 . 4 $ . To t h e e x t e n t t h a t t h e s e c o m m o d i t i e s a r e r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of our f o r e i g n t r a d e a s a w h o l e , t h e v o l u m e o f o u r t r a d e d u r i n g 1 9 2 0 was d i s t i n c t l y l e s s t h a n i n 1 9 1 9 > n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g t h a t a new h i g h r e c o r d of v a l u e s was e s t a b l i s h e d f o r b o t h e x p o r t s and i m p o r t s . SHIPPING. D e s p i t e t h e l a r g e volume of our f o r e i g n t r a d e , i n d u s t r y i s p a s s i n g through a p e r i o d of s e v e r e d e p r e s s i o n . the shipping Ocean f r e i g h t r a t e s h a v e c o n t i n u e d downward s t e a d i l y and a t t i m e s p r e c i p i t a t e l y the p a s t f e w months u n t i l s t e a m s h i p c o m p a n i e s i n many t r a d e s a r e o p e r a t i n g on a l o s ing b a s i s . The downward t r e n d of f r e i g h t s was f u r t h e r e m p h a s i s e d i n F e b r u - a r y when t h e N o r t h A t l a n t i c U n i t e d Kingdon c o n f e r e n c e l o w e r e d c o a l c h a r t e r s t o $ 3 - 8 5 p e r t o n , f r o m Hampton Roads t o R o t t e r d a m , a n d t o $ 5 - 5 0 p e r t o n t o River Plate p o r t s . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g q u o t a t i o n s i n F e b r u a r y , t o R o t t e r d a m and $ 1 3 t o B u e n o s . A i r e s . freights The p o l i c y of i m p r o v e s c o n t i n u e s on a l a r g e s c a l e . 1920, were $21 l a y i n g up s h i p s u n t i l S h i p b u i l d i n g i n American yards X-3055 -31- is for the present teing c o n f i n e d t o v e s s e l s a l r e a d y l a i d down. Hew c o n t r a c t s h a v e been a l m o s t e n t i r e l y ^ a n t i n g f o r s e v e r a l months p a s t . The amount of c o n s t r u c t i o n u n d e r way on F e b r u a r y 1 "ras r e p o r t e d by t h e American Bureau of S h i p p i n g a s 404 s t e e l Of t h e s e v e s s e l s , Board. 61 v/erc beinq b u i l t ships of 1 , 5 7 9 , 3 9 8 ~ross tons. for the United S t a t e s Shipping
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