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130 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD X-30JU STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS • For r e l e a s e i n morning p a p e r s , Tuesday, February 1921. The f o l l o w i n g i s a review of g e n e r a l b u s i n e s s and f i n a n c i a l conditions throughout the several Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t s d u r i n g t h e month of J a n u a r y , a s c o n t a i n e d i n t h e f o r t h c o m i n g i s s u e of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve B u l l e t i n . The b u s i n e s s developments d u r i n g t h e month of January have shown a s l i g h t but u n m i s t a k a b l e t u r n toward a b e t t e r s t a t e of a f f a i r s . At some p l a n t s where c o n s i d e r a b l e numbers of men have been unemployed, i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s have been resumed i n whole o r i n p a r t . The Bureau of Labor, however, r e p o r t s a t o t a l of 3>473*466 unemployed f o r t h e country a s a whole. P r i c e s i n many l i n e s have gone no. lower t h a n t h e l e v e l which had been e s t a b l i s h e d a t t h e c l o s e of 1920. Banking c o n d i t i o n s have m a t e r i a l l y improved, p a r t l y through t h e s t e a d i e r and more r a p i d movement of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s t o market and p a r t l y through t h e more r a p i d l i q u i d a t i o n of p a p e r a l r e a d y h e l d by membe# banks. As a r e s u l t t h e r e s e r v e r a t i o of t h e F e d e r a l Reserve System h a s r i s e n t o 4g p e r cent a t t h e l a s t r e p o r t i n g d a t e i n t h e month (January 2 8 t h ) . Member bank c o n d i t i o n s a l s o show improvement i n l i q u i d i t y and i n c r e a s i n g s t r e n g t h . r e l a t i v e l y fewer. F a i l u r e s have been There a r e s i g n s of a d i s t i n c t improvement i n c e r t a i n b r a n c h e s of t h e t e x t i l e t r a d e s w h i l e r e t a i l e r s a r e now b e g i n n i n g t o buy much more f r e e l y and a c t i v e l y t h a n h e r e t o f o r e due t o t h e d e p l e t i o n of t h e s t o c k s on t h e i r s h e l v e s . T r a n s p o r t a t i o n supply h a s been f a i r l y e q u a l i z e d w i t h dsmartand t h e r e i s now l i t t l e o r no delay of goods g o i n g from producer t o consumer, form p r o d u c t s , a l t h o u g h f l u c t u a t i n g more or l e a s w i d e l y , have maintained themselves a t p r i c e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y equivalent t o those established d u r i n g December. There h a s been l i t t l e or no g a i n i n e x p o r t t r a d e c o n d i t i o n s -2- X-3034 J_3£ but p r e p a r a t i o n s f o r t h e p l a c i n g of e x p o r t f i n a n c i n g upon more s a t i s f a c t o r y b a s i s was b e l i e v e d t o l a y t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r a d i s t i n c t improvement of t h e o u t l o o k . R e t a i l p r i c e s have shown d u r i n g t h e month of January a much g r e a t e r tendency t o r e f l e c t t h e changes t h a t had a l r e a d y occurred i n w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s , While, t h e r e f o r e , i t cannot be s a i d t h a t very m a t e r i a l a l t e r a t i o n of fundamental c o n d i t i o n s h a s o c c u r r e d enough p r o g r e s s has been made t o give a s s u r a n c e of a s t e a d y movement toward sounder c o n d i t i o n s i n b u s i n e s s . There i s a wide demand f o r American goods, t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s connected ""With m a r k e t i n g b e i n g found i n t h e q u e s t i o n of p r i c e s and of terms t o be r e q u i r e d of p u r c h a s e r s . AGRICULTURE. As i s u s u a l a t t h i s season of t h e y e a r , d e v e l o p - ments i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s i t u a t i o n have been few and of l i t t l e i m p o r t ance. P r e v a i l i n g t e m p e r a t u r e s throughout t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t i o n s have been mild and comparatively uniform and very l i t t l e damage has r e s u l t e d from a l t e r n a t e f r e e z i n g and thawing except i n D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) where some damage has been d^one t o t h e wheat crop due t o t h e l a c k of a c o v e r i n g snow. Snows have f a l l e n i n many s e c t i o n s and have been of g r e a t b e n e f i t t o t h e w i n t e r g r a i n , but a s y e t t h e r e i s s t i l l i n g e n e r a l a n i n s u f f i c i e n t amount of m o i s t u r e . In D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) i t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t "On t h e whole t h e c o n d i t i o n of w i n t e r wheat i s f a i r t o good," and "Thus f a r t h e r e have been fewer complaints t h a n u s u a l of damage from inclement w e a t h e r , " w h i l e D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) s t a t e s t h a t "wheat g e n e r a l l y i s r e p o r t e d t o -3- x-303'+ have a f i n e green color and excellent condition, f u r n i s h i n g much good pasturage - T h e mild afrd •uniform weather which has p r e v a i l e d on the whole throughout the winter has "been favorable f o r cnfb door farm work and in most sections good progress has been made i n plowing f o r spring crops. The close of the year found, a considerable amount of cotton s t i l l unpicked i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 (Dallas) but i t i s generally believed that most of the unpicked crop w i l l be saved. City) In D i s t r i c t No, 10 (Kansas "The Oklahoma report f o r the week ending January ^th s a i d 20$ or more of the cotton crop, a l l very low grade, was s t i l l i n the f i e l d s while D i s t r i c t So. 8 (:%. Lowus) reports t h a t "belated p i c k i n 2 has been stimulated by a temporary market for weather stained c o t t o n . " Some low grade cotton has been l e f t "un gathered in D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) but "due to favorable weather and a s l i g h t s t i f f e n i n g in p r i c e s , moie cotton has been picked during the l a s t two weeks." L i t t l e cotton was sold i n t h a t d i s t r i c t during December, due to the u n s a t i s f a c t o r y prxcos but around the opening of the new year p r i c e s showed & n upward tendency There i s s t i l l much evidence of the holding movement among cotton pro<ducers i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 (Dallas) but r e c e i p t s at Galveston as compared with ginnings i n Texas to January 1 s t would i n d i c a t e t h a t the r a t e of marketing i s "not so f a r below normal." "Evidence continues to accumulate " t h a t crops w i l l be more d i v e r s i f i e d in the d i s t r i c t in 1921. A heavy increase i n winter grain acreage i s reported, and many farmers i t i s believed m i l e i t h e r c u r t a i l or eliminate the land thus released to r a i s e a l a r g e r supply of t h e i r own n e c e s s i t i e s . . Mach talk of reduced s e r e n e , both fc-r cotton and tobacco continues in D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Siuhmond) . -4- X-3034 ^ 3 3 Conditions i n the s e v e r a l tobacco s e c t i o n s c o n t i n u e •unsatisfactory. Farmers i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) a r e u n w i l l - i n g to a c c e p t the p r i c e s o f f e r e d , c l a i m i n g t h a t t h e y do n o t cover the c o s t s of p r o d u c t i o n . I t i s s t a t e d however, t h a t "the b e s t grades are s e l l i n g a t r e a s o n a b l y f a i r p r i c e s , while the i n f e r i o r g r a d e s , of which the crop i s l a r g e l y composed, are b r i n g i n g u n u s u a l l y low f i g ures." L i t t l e tobacco was s o l d i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) d u r i n g December, and "many of t h e markets were c l o s e d a good p a r t of the month or u n t i l a f t e r the h o l i d a y s , " I n D i s t r i c t No. 4 ( C l e v e l a n d ) , many of t h e m a r k e t s c l o s e d s h o r t l y a f t e r the opening, due to the low p r i c e o f f e r e d . A g e n e r a l sentiment i n f a v o r of a r e d u c t i o n i n t h e tobacco acreage a p p a r e n t l y e x i s t s i n a l l the s e c t i o n s . %ich t a l k i s h e a r d of r a i s i n g no b u r l e y crop i n l $ 2 l " i n D i s t r i c t No. 4 , "numerous p l a n s t o e n f o r c e a r e d u c t i o n of acreage have been advanced" i n D i s t r i c t No. 5, and f a r m e r s i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 " a r e a g i t a t i n g t o h o l d l a s t y e a r ' s crop and p l a n t none t h i s y e a r . " The above a r e a l l t o - b a c c o s of t h e s o - c a l l e d m a n u f a c t u r i n g and export t y p e s . The q u a l i t y of P e n n s y l v a n i a c i g a r l e a f i s c o n s i d e r a b l y lower t h a n l a s t y e a r , and m a n u f a c t u r e r s a r e r e l u c t a n t to u s e t h i s grade of l e a f . Except f o r b r a n d s f o r which t h e r e i s an e s t a b l i s h e d t r a d e , demand h a s d e c r e a s e d w i t h i n t h e p a s t 60 days i n the i n d u s t r y . The u s u a l d u l l - n e s s d u r i n g the f i r s t week of January h a s c o n t i n u e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) , and b o t h d e a l e r and buying p u b l i c d i s p l a y a waiting a t t i t u d e . U n t i l December 2 0 t h t h e movement of g r a i n i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) was h e a v i e r than l a s t y e a r , but t h e r e a f t e r a "decided slump" o c c u r r e d . T o t a l December r e c e i p t s of a l l g r a i n s a t Minneapolis 134 -5- X-;sq34 and Duluth t h u s were 24, 078,84g b u s h e l s a s compared w i t h 3 2 , 2 2 7 , 5 4 4 b u s h e l s d u r i n g November and 21,714,154 b u s h e l s d u r i n g December, i g i g , t h e December r e c e i p t s a t Duluth b e i n g over 5 t i m e s a s l a r g e a s a y e a r ago, a l t h o u g h the Minneapolis r e c e i p t s showed a d e c l i n e of almost 1C$>. Combined Decem- ber corn r e c e i p t s a t both c e n t e r s were double those f o r November, w h i l e t h o s e of wheat, b a r l e y and rye were a b o u t two t h i r d s a s l a r g e . "An improv- ed demand f o r wheat and more l i b e r a l s u p p l i e s were o u t s t a n d i n g f e a t u r e s of t h e opening week of t h e new y e a r " i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) . Re- c e i p t s of wheat d u r i n g t h e f i r s t 15 days of January were 2($> l a r g e r t h a n a y e a r a g o , and corn r e c e i p t s were 30$ l a r g e r , but r e c e i p t s of o a t s d e creased 20%. During December p r i c e d e c l i n e s p r e v a i l e d i n D i s t r i c t No, 9 (Minneapolis) "with but minor e x c e p t i o n s , " and a narrower range was e x h i b i ted. Thus t h e high and low p r i c e s of No. 1 dark northern, cash wheat i n December were $ 1 . 8 7 - 7 / 8 and $1.52, a s compared w i t h $ 2 . 2 2 and $1.81% d u r i n g November. In e a r l y J a n u a r y , however, i n c r e a s e was found i n g e n e r a l i n t h e markets i n many s e c t i o n s . From mid-December t o mid"January t h e g r a i n mar- k e t s i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) were s u b j e c t t o f r e q u e n t and broad f l u c t u a t i o n s , t h e c h a r a c t e r of which r e f l e c t e d u n u s u a l l y heavy s p e c u l a t i v e activity." Cash hard w i n t e r wheat a t Kansas City s o l d on January 1 4 t h a t $1*.S1 - $1.85 a s compared w i t h $1.6g - $ 1 . 7 0 around C h r i s t m a s . FLOUR MILLING, M i l l i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n t h e f i r s t p a r t of January i n - creased m a t e r i a l l y over t h o s e d u r i n g December, but were s t i l l c o n s i d e r a b l y lower t h a n a y e a r a g o . Kansas City m i l l s d u r i n g t h e f i r s t week of January were o p e r a t e d a t 67% of c a p a c i t y ; d u r i n g December a t 56$ and d u r i n g t h e f i r s t week of 1920 a t 81$. a t below 5056 of c a p a c i t y . I n t e r i o r m i l l s , however, c o n t i n u e t o o p e r a t e I n D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) p r e s e n t o p e r a - 135 -6- X-3034 t i o n s a r e a t about 43%, a s compared w i t h 65$ a y e a r a g o . P r o d u c t i o n of m i l l s r e p r e s e n t i n g 75# of t h e t o t a l output tif t h e d i s t r i c t , was 2 , 0 2 4 , 4 7 0 b a r r e l s d u r i n g t h e 4 weeks ending December 25th, a s compared w i t h 2 , 4 6 0 , 4 9 5 b a r r e l s d u r i n g t h e 4 weeks ending November 27th, and 2 , 4 9 7 , 5 0 7 b a r r e l s d u r i n g t h e 4 weeks ending December 27, 1919* I n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , 78 m i l l e r s were o p e r a t i n g a t 2 6 . 7 $ of c a p a c i t y d u r i n g December, a s compared w i t h 3 4 . 7 $ d u r i n g November and 88.9% d u r i n g December 1919, t h e t o t a l Decemb e r , 1920 output b e i n g 399*692 b a r r e l s . Mill o p e r a t i o n s i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) a r e only a t about 50 t o 60$ of c a p a c i t y . Bakers i n Kansas City were more a c t i v e p u r c h a s e r s a t t h e opening of January t h a n were j o b b e r s . P r i c e s i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) have f l u c t u a t e d c o n s i d e r a b l y , b u t w i t h an upward t r e n d , p r i n c i p a l l y i n sympathy w i t h t h e advance i n wheat f u t u r e s . Country m i l l s a r e r e l a t i v e l y b u s i e r t h a n t h e l a r g e r c i t y p l a n t s i n t h a t d i s t r i c t , due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e former s e l l t h e i r product l o c a l l y , and t h u s do n o t f e e l t h e p r e s e n t l i g h t n e s s of f o r e i g n buying. LIVESTOCK. In l i v e s t o c k , t h e e x c e p t i o n a l l y mild w i n t e r h a s made p o s s i b l e a l a r g e amount of g r a z i n g , so t h a t l i t t l e f e e d i n g h a s been n e c e s s a r y i n many s e c t i o n s , and c o n d i t i o n s have been b e n e f i c i a l t o t h e s t o c k . Throughout D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) , p r e c i p i t a t i o n was v e r y l i g h t d u r i n g Decemb e r , and a t t h e end of t h e month most of t h e range country was i n need of moisture. In New Mexico, a l s o , s t o c k w a t e r i s becoming s c a r c e i n some s e c t i o n s , and t h e d r o u t h i s b e g i n n i n g t o cause some a p p r e h e n s i o n on t h e p a r t of c a t t l e i n t e r e s t s . D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , however, r e p o r t s t h a t "range, f e e d ' a n d m o i s t u r e c o n d i t i o n s c o n t i n u e f a v o r a b l e i n p r a c t i c a l l y a l l s e c t i o n s , and l i v e s t o c k i s g e n e r a l l y r e p o r t e d a s t h r i v i n g . " In C a l i f o r n i a , green f e e d i s abundant e x c e p t i n a few s o u t h 136 X-303U e r n c o u n t i e s , b u t i n the i n t e r mountain country a l a y e r of w i n t e r snow over most of t h e . w i n t e r f e e d i n g a r e a made n e c e s s a r y a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount of f e e d i n g of hay. Hay, however, i s p l e n t i f u l , and the p r i c e low. The movement of l i v e s t o c k to market h a s been l i g h t e r . Re- c e i p t s of c a t t l e a t 15 western markets d u r i n g December were 9^4 ,309 head, as compared with 1,781,261 head d u r i n g November and 1,641,731 head d u r i n g December, 1919> the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers being 98. 177 and 163. R e c e i p t s of sheep l i k e w i s e decreased from 1,542,477 head i n November to 942,858 head i n December, as compared w i t h 1,588,661 head i n December 1919, the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g 113» 69, and l l 6 . December r e c e i p t s of hogs, however, were 2,932,052 head, correspondi n g to an index number of 133> an i n c r e a s e over the November f i g u r e of 2,624,185 head corresponding to an index number of 119 r b u t much l e s s than the December, 1919 f i g u r e of 3,708,409 head, corresponding to an index number of 160. Similar testimony comes from the i n d i v i d u a l F e d e r a l Reserve D i s t r i c t s . T o t a l r e c e i p t s of l i v e s t o c k a t South S t . Paul d u r i n g December were only about one h a l f of those during November, three quarters and l e s s than f of those a year ago. The r e c e i p t s of c a t t l e and sheep i n p a r t i c u l a r were a f f e c t e d , amounting only to about one f o u r t h of t h e November r e c e i p t s , and c a t t l e r e c e i p t s were l e s s than one h a l f of the December, 1919 f i g u r e s . I n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) , r e c e i p t s of c a t t l e d u r i n g December were about 50$ of those d u r i n g November and during December, 1919, and r e c e i p t s of hogs, while showing a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e over the November f i g u r e s were about 35$ l e s s than d u r i n g December , 1919. C a t t l e r e c e i p t s a t F o r t Worth were t h e s m a l l e s t f o r any 137 -7 a December in 13 years. X-303I+ In D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas City) the markets from mid-December to mid-January were i r r e g u l a r , and there was a narrowing of the range of c a t t l e p r i c e s . Prices of hogs and sheep advanced a f t e r the opening of the year. Prices at Foit Worth were a t exceptionally low l e v e l during December, in s p i t e of the small r e ceipts. In D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) lower p r i c e s p r e v a i l e d through- out December, due p r i m a r i l y , i t i s s t a t e d , to the great reduction in demand f o r f o r e i g n export while there was also a s u b s t a n t i a l decrease in the demand f o r beef to be placed in f r e e z e r s . In D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San Francisco), however, p r i c e s "were generally maintained a t November l e v e l s , " and in D i s t r i c t No. 8 (St. Louis) "the average shows very l i t t l e change from the preceding month'.' i 38 -g- LUMBER. x-3034 Lumber p r i c e s a s y e t show no t e n d e n c y t o pdvance-. d e e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of the b e t t e r $5 p e r t h o u s a n d . In- there has been a g e n e r a l drop grades of white p i n e which advanced I n D i s t r i c t No, 6 ( A t l a n t a ) f r o m December s a l e s w a s p r o b a b l y the average p r i c e s r e a l i s e d l e s s t h a n i n November a n d f u l l y 50% l e s s t h a n f o r December o f l a s t y e a r . C o n s u m e r s demand f u r t h e r r e - d a c t i o n s f r o m r e t a i l e r s who h a v e a l r e a d y r e c e i v e d s u b s t a n t i a l r e d u c t i o n s from the manufacturers. lumber a t The l a t t e r c l a i m t h a t t h e p r e s e & t p r i c e s f o r the m i l l s w i l l n o t pay f o r the c o s t of p r o d u c t i o n . I n v i e w o f t h e l a c k o f demand, p r o d u c t i o n o f l u m b e r c o n t i n u e s t o decline- A l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n of D i s t r i c t No, 6 ( A t l a n t a ) the Southern Pine m i l l s l o c a t e d i n a r e r u n n i n g o n p a r t t i m e o r s h u t down a l t o - gether- and p r o d u c t i o n as r e p o r t e d by 125 m i l l s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e S o u t h e r n P i n e A s s o c i a t i o n s h o w e d f o r t h e week e n d i n g F r i d a y J a n u a r y %th a n a c t u a l p r o d u c t i o n 51*5$ below normal. duction. Orders were 57$ below normal p r o - T w e n t y - f o u r m i l l s b e l o n g i n g to the Southern P i n e A s s o c i a t i o n l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 1 ( D a l l a s ) low normal while o r d e r s are r e p o r t e d a c t u a l p r o d u c t i o n 47% b e - below normal production- W h i l e some p a r t o f t h e g e n e r a l d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n i s p a r t l y due t o c l o s i n g f o r annual r e p a i r s , overhauling, and i n v e n t o r i e s , i t i s due m a i n l y t o t h e r e d u c t i o n i n o r d e r s caused b y the general d e p r e s s i o n i n b u s i n e s s . In D i s t r i c t No. 12 ( S a n F r a n c i s c o ) p r o d u c t i o n h a s r e c e d e d g r a d u a l l y s i n c e Mgy 1 9 2 0 , r e a c h i n g t h e l o w p o i n t o f t h e y e a r i n December when a c c o r d - i n g to t h e f i g u r e s of the 4 lumber a s s o c i a t i o n s , l e s s t h a n i n November. For t h e f i r s t t i m e s i n c e J u l y 1920 t h e c u t of the p r i n c i p a l producers in the d i s t r i c t , t h e o u t p u t was 34% t h e West Coast Lumbermen's A 139 -9- x-30j4 Association, was l e s s than shipments and 6l% below normal- The San 5'rancisco report says, "both the orders received by, and the shipments of the 4 associations combined, touched the low points of the year during December. The t o t a l volume of new business booked by a l l r e p o r t - ing m i l l s was 37$ l e s s than that of the preceding 4 weeks and the shipments showed a decrease of 17$. COAL. Production of bituminous coal during December was 52,5^0,000 tons as compared with 51,012,000 tons in November and 36,612,000 tons in December 1919, the respective index numbers being 142,138, and 99The average production per work day however, has been s t e a d i l y downward since mid-December, and the present daily r a t e i s lower than in the corresponding period during any of the four previous years, except 1918, when a severe storm caused r a i l r o a d congestion and thus a f f e c t e d production. ders. Present c u r t a i l e d production i s a t t r i b u t e d to lack of or- The characterization of the present s i t u a t i o n in the s o f t coal trade from D i s t r i c t No. 3 (Philadelphia) i s typical of the reports r e ceived from other D i s t r i c t s also. I t s t a t e s t h a t business i s "com- p a r a t i v e l y d u l l , owing to smaller domestic demand incident to the curtailment of i n d u s t r i a l operations, the decline i n the export trade and f i n a l l y the elimination of speculation which was so pronounced about two months ago." In consequence, p r i c e s have shown a decline. Mining and shipping in D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) have been a f f e c t e d , but there has been a very large movement. In D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas City), however, a f t e r the usual slowing down during the holidays, operations during the f i r s t two weeks of January were l i t t l e i f any below those f o r the f i r s t three weeks of December. P r i c e s are "a shade 140 ~10" easier n Z-3034 than one month ago, b u t u p t o the p r e s e n t time no m a t e r i a l changes i n wages have been r e p o r t e d . * S u p p l i e s of c o a l and coke are "ample" i n D i s t r i c t No, 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) , and s u r p l u s e s a r e r e p o r t e d i n a number of l o c a l i t i e s . P r i c e s of c o a l to u l t i m a t e consumers have been reduced s l i g h t l y i n S t . Louis and o t h e r l a r g e c i t i e s of the District. R e f l e c t i n g the i n d u s t r i a l s i t u a t i o n , the p r o d u c t i o n of beehive coke h a s c o n t i n u e d t o d e c l i n e . P r i c e s have been a f f e c t e d c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , the lowest p o i n t b e i n g r e a c h e d as a r e s u l t of the h o l i d a y a c c u m u l a t i o n s , and an i n c r e a s e was a g a i n shown a s t h e s e were worked o f f . Anthracite coal production during December was 8,469,000 tons, as compared with 7,519>000 tons during November and 8,089,000 tons during December 1919> the respective index numbers being 114,102, and 109. During January, however, there has been continued recovery from the holiday depression, and the weekly output i s again approaching the two million ton mark. A strong consumers* demand e x i s t s , i t i s stated from D i s t r i c t No. 3 (Philadelphia), i n spite of the exceptional mildness of the winter. Steam s i z e s , however, are "draggy. 11 Two large r a i l r o a d company producers have r a i s e d stove and nut sizes 15 cents per ton. CRUDE EETEOLEUM. decrease. The p r o d u c t i o n of crude p e t r o l e u m h a s shown a In D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas City) r e f i n e r s reduced purchases of crude o i l from 30$ t o 50% d u r i n g the p a s t 30 days. In consequence, average d a i l y p r o d u c t i o n i n Kansas and Oklahoma f e l l from 386,000 b a r r e l s d u r i n g t h e week ending Tecember 24, t o 3^7,000 b a r r e l s during the week ending J a n u a r y 14. P r o d u c t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) -11- X~3034 d u r i n g December was 12, 833, 574 b a r r e l s , a s a g a i n s t 13,3^-7,352 b a r r e l s d u r i n g November, t h e h e a v i e s t d e c l i n e being r e p o r t e d i n t h e Texas c o a s t a l fields. In both D i s t r i c t s t h e d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n i s a t t r i b u t e d i n p a r t t o the inadequacy of p i p e l i n e and s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s . Some of t h e r e f i n e r s and l a r g e u s e r s of crude o i l a r e i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r c a p a c i t y f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of o i l t o market c e n t e r s i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) while new p i p e l i n e s a r e b e i n g completed i n C e n t r a l West Texas. Drilling a c t i v i t i e s i n Texas were s h a r p l y c u r t a i l e d , w h i l e fewer w e l l s were comp l e t e d i n December i n Oklahoma and Kansas t h a n i n November a l t h o Wyoming showed an i n c r e a s e . The p r i c e s of both crude petroleum and v a r i o u s r e f i n e d p r o d u c t s have d e c l i n e d . IRON AND STFEL - New b u s i n e s s i n t h e i r o n a n d s t e e l i n d u s t r y c o n t i n u e s l i g h t , a n d a s a w h o l e , i t i s s t a t e d f r o m D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) , t h a t t h e i n d u s t r y c o n t i n u e s i n t h e " l e t h a r g i c " s t a t e which h a s e x i s t e d f o r s e v e r a l months. This i s i n s p i t e of "a marked i n c r e a s e i n t h e competition f o r new b u s i n e s s " which h a s c l o s e l y accompanied t h e downward t r e n d i n prices. The d e c l i n e i n p r i c e s i n t h a t D i s t r i c t , howdver, i s " a t a slower r a t e t h a n a t any time since t h e r e c e s s i o n s t a r t e d " . D e c l i n e s a r e found both i n the raw m a t e r i a l s and f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s , and independent p r o d u c e r s a r e r e p o r t e d t o have shaded t h e general market l e v e l i n some l i n e s , such a s p l a t e s and s h e e t s . Many independent companies i n D i s t r i c t s No. 3 ( P h i l a - d e l p h i a ) and No. 4 ( C l e v e l a n d ) have reduced wages 15 t o 20%, and a g e n e r a l r e d u c t i o n of 15% w i l l be put i n e f f e c t February 1 i n t h e Lake S u p e r i o r ore d i s t r i c t by t h o s e o p e r a t o r s who have not t a k e n t h i s s t e p a l r e a d y . The United S t a t e s S t e e l C o r p o r a t i o n , however, has made no changes i n wages i n i t s ore mines or p l a n t s . The s i t u a t i o n i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e continued d i f f e r e n c e i n o p e r a t i n g p o s i t i o n between t h e independent companies and t h e United S t a t e s S t e e l C o r p o r a t i o n . The l a t t e r i s r e p o r t e d t o be o p e r a t i n g i 4 i . 142 -ia- x-3034 a t p r a c t i c a l l y f u l l c a p a c i t y i n t h e P i t t s b u r g h D i s t r i c t , and a t over of f i n i s h i n g c a p a c i t y i n t h e Chicago D i s t r i c t . On t h e o t h e r hand, in D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) " i t i s d o u b t f u l if t h e independent c a p a c i t y i s more t h a n 30 t o 40^> a c t i v e " , and " a t mid-January but 12% of t h e independent s t e e l c a p a c i t y i n t h e Mahoning Valley was i n commission," while i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) " o p e r a t i o n s r e p r e s e n t only 35$ of c a p a c i t y a s compared with 4(% a month a g o " . Sharp i n r o a d s have been made oa u n f i l l e d o r d e r s , and t h o s e of t h e United S t a t e s S t e e l Corporat i o n a t t h e c l o s e of December had f u r t h e r decreased t o 8,148,122 t o n s from 9> 021,481 t o n s a t t h e c l o s e of November, t h e r e s p e c t i v e index numbers being 155 and 1J1. Only a few concerns i n D i s t r i c t No, 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) "have more t h a n enough o r d e r s t o enable them to continue o p e r a t i o n s l o n g e r than two or t h r e e months". Several which produce f i n i s h e d and semi f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s a r e now o p e r a t i n g a t f u l l c a p a c i t y i n o r d e r t o r e s t o r e depleted stocks. C a n c e l l a t i o n s i n the D i s t r i c t , which were q u i t e p r e v a l e n t a month ago, have tended t o d e c r e a s e i n number. S t e e l ingot p r o d u c t i o n d u r i n g December was 2,340,365 t o n s , corresponding t o an index number of 100, a s compared w i t h 2,638,670 t o n s d u r i n g November, c o r r e s ponding t o a n index number of 113. P i g i r o n p r o d u c t i o n a l s o showed a f a l l i n g o f f , from 2,934,903 t o n s d u r i n g November t o 2,703,855 t o n s during December, t h e r e s p e c t i v e index numbers being 127 and 117. The blowing out of merchant b l a s t f u r n a c e s has continued i n D i s t r i c t No, 4 (Cleveland) u n t i l t h e s m a l l e s t number of t h i s c l a s s i n about two y e a r s now i s p r o ducing. P r o d u c t i o n of p i g i r o n i n Alabama i s being held t o a minimum. I t i s r e p o r t e d t h a t b l a s t f u r n a c e companies i n t h e i r i n v e n t o r i e s have marked down t h e i r i r o n ore on hand from 50 c e n t s t o $1.50 a t o n , but the ore s e l l i n g companies have not a s yet announced ore p r i c e s f o r 1921. The 143 -13- X-3034 amount of f a b r i c a t e d s t r u c t u r a l s t e e l f o r which c o n t r a c t s were made d u r i n g December was 47,000 t o n s o r 26$ of t h e c o u n t r y ' s c a p a c i t y , a s comp a r e d w i t h 49,200 t o n s o r 27S% d u r i n g November. While b o t h o r d e r s and shipments of t h e B r i d g e B u i l d e r s and S t r u c t u r a l S o c i e t y , r e p r e s e n t i n g Uof° of t h e t o t a l f a b r i c a t i n g c a p a c i t y of the c o u n t r y , i n c r e a s e d f o r Decemb e r over t h e November f i g u r e s , work ahead d e c r e a s e d f r o m 1 ) 4 , 2 0 0 t o n s , a a t t h e c l o s e of November t o 112,525 t o n s , * t h e c l o s e of December. KON-FBKEEOUS METALS• A somewhat b e t t e r tone t o t h e n o n - f e r r e o u s metal m a r k e t s was r e p o r t e d a t t h e opening of t h e month, and t h e m a r k e t s have b e e n h e l p e d by t h e r e c o v e r y i n s t e r l i n g exchange. Lead was most a c t i v e and s t r o n g e s t , t h e open market l e v e l b e i n g somewhat over t h e f i g u r e o f $ 4 . 7 5 quoted b y t h e l e a d i n g i n t e r e s t , b u t towards t h e middle of t h e month was somewhat q u i e t e r . F o r e i g n demand f o r copper was somewhat b e t t e r t h a n the domestic demand. p r i c e s became somewhat f i r m e r . As t h e cheaper l o t s were e l i m i n a t e d , Tin became d e c i d e d l y fi..me.. a t open i n g of the month, b u t s u b s e q u e n t l y d e c l i n e d i n sympathy wivh vhe London market. Consumers 1 demands have b e e n l i g h t . The z i n c market h a s b e e n v e r y r e s t r i c t e d w i t h demand l i g h t and p r i c e s low. December copper p r o - d u c t i o n r e p o r t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 ( M i n n e a p o l i s ) amounted t o 2 0 , 6 0 8 , 8 1 9 l b s . , a s compared w i t h 2 0 , 8 4 2 , 8 9 7 l b s . , i n November, and l 6 , 5 l 6 j 0 8 l b s . , i n December 1919, an i n c r e a s e of about 25$ over t h e l a s t f i g u r e , due l a x g e l y t o t h e shut-down of one of t h e l e a d i n g Montana p r o d u c e r s f o r a p a r t of the month of December 1 9 1 9 - & ^ s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , how, e v e r , copper p r o d u c t i o n was s u b s t a n t i a l l y c u r t a i l e d d u r i n g December, s e v e r a l mines h a v i n g s h u t down, w h i l e o t h e r s r e d u c e d t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s t o -145C$ of c a p a c i t y . X-30JU The average p r i c e of blend ores i n t h e Kansas City D i s - t r i c t was $31.51 p e r t o n during December, the lowest p r e v a i l i n g i n t h e z i n c ore market f o r many y e a r s . COTTON. The Census Bureau r e p o r t s consumption of c o t t o n by t h e m i l l s of t h e country i n t h e p e r i o d from August 1 s t t o December 3 1 s t t o be 1,967,000 b a l e s a s compared w i t h 2,$$4,000 b a l e s f o r t h e corresponding p e r iod a year a g o . Only 294,800 b a l e s were consumed i n December 1920 a s com- pared w i t h 511,500 b a l e s i n December 1919 and 332,000 b a l e s d u r i n g t h e p r e c e d i n g month. A s l i g h t advance i n p r i c e s occurred a f t e r t h e opening of t h e new year but was followed by d e c l i n e s . The t o t a l c o t t o n e x p o r t s d u r i n g December were 758,578 b a l e s a s compared w i t h 685*323 b a l e s i n November and 876,852 b a l e s i n December 1919There h a s been some improvement i n the c o t t o n t e x t i l e i n d u s t r y of New England d u r i n g t h e p a s t month, e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e market f o r y a r n s f o r which t h e r e has been an i n c r e a s e d demand and a r e s u l t a n t i n c r e a s e i n p r i c e s . The r e p o r t from D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) says; "As a whole a very r e a l e f f o r t has been made t o p l a c e v a l u e s on such a l e v e l t h a t buyers w i l l f e e l t h a t t h e s t a b i l i z a t i o n so necessary t o a t t r a c t a normal demand, h a s been a t t a i n ed- Quotations upon standard c l o t h s f o r t h e second week i n January i n - d i c a t e , i n f a c t , t h a t p r i c e r e d u c t i o n s i n manufactured goods have outrun t h e d e c l i n e i n the raw m a t e r i a l . Upon comparable d a t e s , spot m i d d l i n g u p - land c o t t o n had d e c l i n e d 54# from i t s q u o t a t i o n a year ago, w h i l e 2S-inch p r i n t c l o t h s 64x6 O's were quoted a t 6 c e n t s a s a g a i n s t l 4 f c e n t s , and 3&i inch 64x60's gray goods a t 8 - 5 / 8 c e n t s i n comparison w i t h 23 c e n t s i n J a n uary 1920 r e d u c t i o n s a v e r a g i n g over 6o$. In l i k e manner brown s h e e t i n g s , 4 yard, 145 -15- X-3034 56X6O s, had f a l l e n from 29 c e n t s t o 11S c e n t s , and r e d u c t i o n s of 58 pe» c e n t i n t i c k i n g s , 62 per c e n t i n denims, and approximately 50 p e r c e n t i n d r e s s ginghams and s t a n d a r d p r i n t s , i n d i c a t e t h e b r e a d t h and s e v e r i t y of p r i c e r e a d j u s t m e n t s made by m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n t e r e s t s . * On the o t h e r hand, the s i t u a t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ? h a s remained v i r t u a l l y unchanged, the r e p o r t s t a t i n g t h a t • "The market f o r heavy c o t t o n s i s e x c e p t i o n a l l y dormant, and a s a consequence e v e r y p l a n t i n t h e d i s t r i c t making the f a b r i c s i s e i t h e r c o m p l e t e l y s h u t down o r o p e r a t i n g b u t 2 or 3 days a week a t reduced c a p a c i t y i n o r d e r to r e t a i n i t s working o r g a n i z a t i o n . " Cotton y a r n m i l l s have f u r t h e r c u r t a i l - ed o p e r a t i o n s and i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t h a r d l y 20$ of c a p a c i t y i s b e i n g m a i n t a i n e d i n t h e d i s t r i c t and even then t h e o u t p u t i s n o t b e i n g d i s posed o f . During t h e t h i r d week i n J a n u a r y t h e r e was a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n quoted p r i c e s . I n North and South C a r o l i n a s i g n s of r e c o v e r y were much more i n e v i d e n c e , some of the t e x t i l e m i l l s h a v i n g resumed o p e r a t i o n s on a p p r o x i m a t e l y f u l l time. I n a m a j o r i t y of t h e s o u t h e r n m i l l s wage r e d u c t i o n s a v e r a g i n g about 25$ have become e f f e c t i v e . TOOL. There a r e some e v i d e n c e s of a s l i g h t improvement i n the* mark e t f o r raw wool. To be sure i t i s e s t i m a t e d t h a t over 70$ of t h e wool c l i p of D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) i s s t i l l i n the hands of t h e growers or h e l d f o r them on consignment i n the e a s t e r n m a r k e t s or a t P o r t l a n d b u t t h e l a t e December wool movement was r e p o r t e d to be h e a v i e r than f o r many weeks and i t was s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t a d i s p o s i t i o n t o make f u r t h e r p r i c e c o n c e s s i o n s was then l a c k i n g . A s l i g h t increase in prices of raw wool was n o t e d i n the Boston market a t the end of December, where the Government a u c t i o n of c a r p e t wools brought p r i c e s f r o m 5 t o 10$ above 146 -l6~ t h o s e immediately p r e c e d i n g ^ X-303U On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e E n g l i s h Government a u c t i o n s d u r i n g t h e middle of January r e s u l t e d i n t h e s a l e of only 25$ a t open market r a t e s . There h a s been a n i n c r e a s e d i m p o r t a t i o n of wool t o p s made i n England whidh d t c u r r e n t exchange r a t e s can be imported i n t o t h e c o u n t r y and s o l d i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h t h e d o m e s t i c p r o d u c t . There h a s b e e n no p a r t i c u l a r change i n t h e goods market and no new d e v e l o p ments t o r e p o r t a s m i l l s a r e s t i l l r u n n i n g much below c a p a c i t y . District No. 1 (Boston) c a l l s a t t e n t i o n t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e t o t a l amount of wool consumed by m a n u f a c t u r e s i n November was only 38-3% of t h e amount used i n January 1^20, t h e h i g h p o i n t of t h e p e r i o d of a c t i v i t y . In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) woolen y a r n m i l l s a r e s a i d t o be o p e r a t i n g a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5Oft of c a p a c i t y w i t h a b o u t h a l f t h e u s u a l number of employees. About t h e middle of January h o s i e r y m i l l s i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) began t o r e c e i v e o r d e r s from j o b b e r s f o r immediate d e l i v e r y w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t p r i c e s of p a r t i c u l a r numbers advanced somewhat. T h i r t y f i r m s s e l l i n g t o t h e w h o l e s a l e t r a d e r e p o r t e d p r o d u c t i o n f o r December ( s e l l i n g p r i c e ) t o be 70*3% below December I 9 1 9 but 29»4fo g r e a t e r t h a n i n t h e p r e c e d i n g month of November. F i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s on hand a t t h e end of t h e month ( s e l l i n g p r i c e ) were a l s o 15»8% l e s s t h a n i n November a l t h o u g h 5 7 . 5 $ g r e a t e r t h a n t h e y were a t t h e end of 1919« Unfilled or- d e r s a t t h e end of t h e month ( s e l l i n g p r i c e ) were 8 8 . 4 $ below t h e t o t a l s f o r l a s t December and 2 3 . 3 # l e s s t h a n a t t h e end of November. One of t h e l a r g e s t h o s i e r y m a n u f a c t u r e r s i n t h e United S t a t e s i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) s t a t e s t h a t i n t h e f i r s t two weeks of J a n u a r y he s e c u r e d more o r d e r s t h a n d u r i n g t h e e n t i r e t h r e e months p r e c e d i n g . In t h e underwear i n d u s t r y l i k e w i s e some i n c r e a s e i n o r d e r s f o r both . 147 -17- X-3034 immediate d e l i v e r y and f o r e a r l y s p r i n g shipment have been r e c e i v e d . The o r d e r s f o r s p r i n g d e l i v e r y a r e very l i m i t e d , however, n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the f a c t t h a t t h e s t o c k s held by r e t a i l e r s and j o b b e r s a r e very s m a l l . E i g h t e e n underwear f i r m s l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) r e p o r t p r o d u c t i o n i n December ( s e l l i n g p r i c e ) t o be 42.6$ l e s s than d u r i n g t h e p r e c e d i n g month and 74*7$ l e s s d u r i n g the same month a y e a r a g o . Finished p r o d u c t s on hand a t t h e end of t h e month, a l t h o u g h showing a s l i g h t d e c r e a s e of 3»7$ from t h e p r e c e d i n g month were 474.8$ i n excess of s t o c k s held i n December 1919* Orders booked d u r i n g t h e month, however, had i n c r e a s e d 38*8$ a s compared w i t h November, b u t were 1U.8$ below t h e t o t a l s f o r December 1919. U n f i l l e d o r d e r s on hand a t t h e end of t h e motith were 58.6$ g r e a t e r than i n November; but 93«4$ l e s s than t h e amounts o u t s t a n d i n g i n December 1919. Carpet and rug m i l l s i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) have so f a r experienced no r e v i v a l of demand. A very few m i l l s a r e o p e r a t i n g a t f u l l c a p a c i t y f o r s t o c k , about one t h i r d of t h o s e r e p o r t i n g have r e t a i n e d t h e i r f u l l working f o r c e on p a r t time, t h e r e s t a r e e i t h e r completely shut down or e l s e m a i n t a i n i n g a s k e l e t o n working o r g a n i z a t i o n but doing p r a c t i c a l l y nothing. Salesmen s e n t out i n November and e a r l y December a r e r e p o r t e d t o have been unable t o secure o r d e r s . SILKS - There have been p r a c t i c a l l y no changes i n t h e raw s i l k markets d u r i n g t h e month, t h e p r i c e being s t a b i l i z e d around $ 6 . 2 0 p e r pound a s com* pared w i t h $18.00 a year a g o . Stocks i n the warehouses i n D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York) decreased about 8$ during December and on January 1 amounted to about 44,536 b a l e s . <• There i s r e p o r t e d t o be an i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand f o r s i l k p i s c e goods from r e t a i l e r s and from d r e s s and w a i s t m a n u f a c t u r e r s w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t p i e c e goods m a n u f a c t u r e r s have e n t e r e d t h e raw s i l k markets > —X 8— t o f i l l immediate n e e d s . X-3 03 4 A few m a n u f a c t u r e r s have l i k e w i s e i n c r e a s e d t h e s c a l e of t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s but t h e r e h a s been no r e s u l t a n t i n c r e a s e of a c t i v i t y in t h i s field* In P a t e r s o n , New J e r s e y , s i l k looms a r e now r u n n i n g a t a b o u t 1 bio of c a p a c i t y i n t e r m s of loom hours a s compared w i t h 7$ i n December. I t i s s d i d , however, t h a t 1 0 , 0 0 0 of t h e 2 4 , 0 0 0 looms i n t h e d i t y a r e e n t i r e l y i d l e w h i l e t h e r e s t a r e r u n n i n g a t a b o u t 25% of Capacity. Elsewhere i n New J e r s e y r e p o r t s from f a c t o r i e s w i t h about 4600 looms show o p e r a t i o n s t o be a t a b o u t 34$ of c a p a c i t y ; HIDES AND LEATHER - The d r a s t i c d e c l i n e s i n t h e p r i c e s of h i d e s appear t o have been a r r e s t e d d u r i n g t h e p a s t month and calf s k i n s have even a d vanced s l i g h t l y . Shoe f a c t o r i e s i n D i s t r i c t No, 1 (Boston) have been r e - opening w i t h t h e r e s u l t t h a t t h e l e a t h e r market h a s a l s o r e g i s t e r e d some price advances. The i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n both i n December and i n January was s t a t e d t o be " p e r c e p t i b l e " a l t h o u g h not l a r g e . Manufacturers i n t h e D i s t r i c t did n o t hold l a r g e s t o c k s e i t h e r of l e a t h e r or of f i n i s h e d shoes. On t h e o t h e r hand, t a n n e r s ' s t o c k s of l e a t h e r were s t i l l l a r g e , and t a n n e r i e s i n t h e D i s t r i c t were b e i n g operated a t only a b o u t 30$ c a p a c i t y In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) shoe m a n u f a c t u r e r s have r e c e i v e d more o r d e r s f o r immediate d e l i v e r y and some f o r s p r i n g shipments, and t h e r e s u l t h a s been a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n o p e r a t i o n s of p l a n t s a l r e a d y a c t i v e , w h i l e some which had been closed down, have a g a i n resumed o p e r a t i o n s . Many t a n n e r i e s i n t h e D i s t r i c t have a l s o opened, a l t h o u g h t h e p e r c e n t a g e of c a p a c i t y b e i n g o p e r a t e d i s much r e s t r i c t e d , i n view of t h e l a r g e amounts of f i n i s h e d stock on hand. S a l e s of shoe Houses l o c a t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) i n December were f a r below t o t a l s of t h e same month i n 1919 and shipments had decreased anywhere from 28 t o 42$. Since January 1, however, two l e a d i n g m a n u f a c t u r e r s r e p o r t e d s l i g h t i n c r e a s e s . The 149 -19- X-3034 p e r c e n t a g e of p l a n t c a p a c i t y i n o p e r a t i o n i n t h i s D i s t r i c t was decidedly above t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e country a t l a r g e b e i n g e s t i m a t e d a t 50%« UNEMPLOYMENT - There has been no r e v i v a l of i n d u s t r i a l o p e r a t i o n s 3. e c a j e t o rWucg t z a i g r i a l l y a month a g o . wi<jesprQa(i unemployment which was p r e v a l e n t I t i s p r o b a b l e , however, t h a t t h e s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n a c t i v i t y i n l e a d i n g New England i n d u s t r i e s d u r i n g t h e month h a s brought a measure of r e l i e f , but t h a t would not be r e f l e c t e d i n the l a t e s t s t a t i s t i c s a t t h e end of December. In t h e s o u t h and west f u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s i t u a t i o n has become more a c u t e , w h i l e i n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San Francisco)^ p r e v i o u s l y only s l i g h t l y a f f e c t e d , unemployment i s s t a t e d t o be abnormally great for t h i s season. Wage r e d u c t i o n s have l i k e w i s e continued t o be announced and have spread t o s e c t i o n s of t h e country where wage r a t e s have h i t h e r t o been maintained a t h i g h l e v e l s . I n t h e New Ehgland D i s t r i c t probably 100, 000 o p e r a t i v e s i n t h e t e x t i l e m i l l s have been a f f e c t e d by wage r e d u c t i o n s which on t h e a v e r a g e amount t o about 2 2 ^ . Although r e d u c t i o n s have n o t been q u i t e so l a r g e i n t h e boot and shoe i n d u s t r y , they have been e x t e n s i v e , but so f a r t h e wage c u t s have n o t s t i m u l a t e d employment t o any marked d e g r e e . At t h e end of December, t h e Massachu- s e t t s Department of Labor and I n d u s t r i e s on t h e b a s i s of r e t u r n s from unions having a membership of 199/022, r e p o r t e d over 57,000 p e r s o n s or 28.9$ w i t h o u t work. The r e t u r n s from t h e t e x t i l e unions showed 48.2$ of the membership unemployed, w h i l e i n t h e boot and shoe i n d u s t r i e s 47-3$ of members of r e p o r t i n g unions were unemployed. P u b l i c employment o f f i c e s i n t h e s t a t e n o t e d a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand f o r l a b o r i n January, but t h e Boston o f f i c e s t a t e d t h a t t h e number of a p p l i c a n t s was t h e g r e a t e s t i n r e c o r d i n t h e f i r s t days of J a n u a r y . 150 -SO'- x-3034 In D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York) unemployment i n c r e a s e d i n January and numbers of workers employed were about U$ below December f i g u r e s . The New York S t a t e I n d u s t r i a l Commission e s t i m a t e s t h a t t h e f a c t o r i e s of t h e S t a t e were employing 300,000 few of wage e a r n e r s t h a n l a s t s p r i n g . Some t e x t i l e m i l l s have reopened and t h e r e has been g r e a t e r a c t i v i t y i n t h e men's c l o t h i n g i n d u s t r y of Rochester, but on t h e o t h e r hand t r a n s p o r t a t i o n companies dropped a c o n s i d e r a b l e number of employees i n January; unem- ployment was l i k e w i s e widespread among longshoremen, f r e i g h t h a n d l e r s , dock workers and seamen w h i l e t h e r e were f u r t h e r r e d u c t i o n s i n i r o n and steel plants. A survey made by the United S t a t e s Department of Labor of t h e i n d u s t r i e s of New York S t a t e most s e r i o u s l y a f f e c t e d show f o r a s e l e c t e d l i s t of f i r m s with 2 , 2 5 s , 9 6 3 persons on t h e i r p a y r o l l s January 1, 1920, a r e d u c t i o n t o 1 , 6 1 1 , 9 2 0 p e r s o n s employed January 1, 1 9 2 1 - a drop of 32$. In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) unemployment i s p r e v a l e n t a s a r e s u l t of t h e continuance of shut-downs of p l a n t s or c u r t a i l m e n t of o p e r a t i o n i n many l i n e s of i n d u s t r y . In January work was resumed i n some of the t e x t i l e m i l l s of D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) but i n t h e b u i l d i n g t r a d e s and i n t h e r a n k s of u n s k i l l e d l a b o r , t h e r e i s a s e r i o u s l a c k of employment. In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) a l a r g e number of b l a s t f u r n a c e s and some mines have closed down e n t i r e l y w h i l e o t h e r s a r e o p e r a t i n g only two to f o u r d a y s a week. M i l l s and f a c t o r i e s a r e a l s o o p e r a t i n g on g r e a t l y reduced s c a l e s and t h e number of unemployed has i n c r e a s e d d e c i d e d l y , i d l e n e s s being most widespread i n t h e ranks of t h e u n s k i l l e d . In many l i n e s wage r e d u c t i o n s have a l r e a d y been made or have been announced. An attempt of b u i l d i n g t r a d e s employers i n A t l a n t a t o p u t a reduced wage s c a l e i n t o e f f e c t h a s met w i t h union o p p o s i t i o n , however, and a projected re- -21- X-3034 d u c t i o n i n wages of t n e A t l a n t a , Birmingham and A t l a n t i c R,R. equal t o 50% of i n c r e a s e s g r a n t e d employees s i n c e 1917 has l i k e w i s e been r e s i s t e d . Conferences a r e b e i n g held between r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e employees and company o f f i c i a l s . Unemployment has become more pronounced i n D i s t r i c t No. g ( S t . L o u i s ) d u r i n g t h e p a s t month b e i n g e s p e c i a l l y f e l t i n i n d u s t r i e s such a s i r o n and s t e e l , a u t o m o b i l e s , shoes, f u r n i t u r e , c l o t h i n g and lumber. So f a r wages have remained f a i r l y steady d e s p i t e t h e d e c l i n e i n numbers employed. A r e t u r n flow of l a b o r from c i t i e s t o t h e f a r m s i s e s p e c i a l l y noticeable in t h i s D i s t r i c t . A r e c e n t survey by t h e Minneapolis C i v i c & Commerce A s s o c i a t i o n c o v e r i n g l i b m a n u f a c t u r e r s employing 26,703 workers a year a g o , showed a r e d u c t i o n of 22-g% i n numbers employed, d e c r e a s e s b e i n g g r e a t e s t i n t h e wood working and p a p e r i n d u s t r i e s which had a b o u t 6U% of t h e number of men employed a year a g o . I r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r i e s had r e t a i n e d 67% of t h e working f o r c e s of a year ago and c l o t h i n g f i r m s , Jl%. In food and food p r o d u c t s l i n e s , however, t h e r e d u c t i o n had only amounted t o 9% a s compared with January 1920. is also increasing. Elsewhere i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) unemployment No work i s i n p r o g r e s s a t t h e Duluth s h i p y a r d s and i t i s s t a t e d t h a t " r e p o r t s from a s e l e c t e d l i s t of mining o p e r a t o r s i n d i c a t e s t h a t i n Montana t h e number of men employed was only ~IQ}b of t h o s e employed i n December 1919, w h i l e i n Michigan t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g f i g u r e was 66%. Among t h e lumber m a n u f a c t u r e r s r e p o r t i n g d i r e c t l y t o t h e F e d e r a l Reserve E&nk of Minneapolis, t h e numbers were 66% of t h e t o t a l s of a year a g o . In C a l i f o r n i a a p p a r e n t l y , employment c o n d i t i o n s a r e n o t u n f a v o r a b l e , but e l s e where i n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) numbers out of work a r e abnormally large. In P o r t l a n d 1 1 , 0 0 0 were unemployed a s compared w i t h anormal f i g u r e 152 X-3034 -22- of 3,000, i n Spokane 2 , $ 0 0 (normal 1500) and i n Nevada, 3000 were unemployed i n t h e mines a s compared w i t h a y e a r a g o . Wage r e d u c t i o n s of 107° t o 20$ have o c c u r r e d i n v a r i o u s p a r t s of t h e D i s t r i c t . WHOLESALE TRADE - The d e c r e a s e i n w h o l e s a l e t r a d e a c t i v i t y c o n t i n u e d t h r o u g h o u t December. S a l e s a s measured i n t e r m s of v a l u e s w e r e extremely l i g h t and l o s s e s were r e p o r t e d b o t h a s compared w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g month a s well a s with a year ago. Reduced a c t i v i t y was p a r t i c u l a r l y marked i n t h e s o u t h e r n and s o u t h w e s t e r n s e c t i o n s of t h e c o u n t r y . R e t a i l e r s generally have p l a c e d few o r d e r s and have shown extreme c a u t i o n - a p o l i c y r e f l e c t e d i n t h e b u y i n g o p e r a t i o n s of w h o l e s a l e r s . In wholesale grocery l i n e s , demand i s v e r y r e s t r i c t e d , a l t h o u g h t h e r e has bean a h a l t i n t h e p e t s r i t y of p r i c e d e c l i n e s , and i n some c a s e s minor a d v a n c e s have been n o t e d . The 51 r e p o r t i n g f i r m s i n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) had a v e r a g e n e t s a l e s d u r i n g t h e month 1 3 - b e l o w November s a l e s and 22.3% l e s s t h a n d u r i n g December 1919- I n o t h e r D i s t r i c t s from which d a t a were s e c u r e d d e c r e a s e s a s compared w i t h December 1919 ranged from 18.8% f o r D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) t o 43% f o r D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) . I n D i s t r i c t No, 11 ( D a l l a s ) t h e drop was a l s o e s p e c i a l l y pronounced a s compared w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g . m o n t h . Changes i n w h o l e s a l e drygoods s a l e s v a r i e d from t o t a l s 19-5% below t h o s e f o r December 1919 i n D i s t r i c t No, 7 (Chicago) t o a n average, d e c r e a s e of 60$ i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) - t h e a v e r a g e s showing g r e a t d i v e r s i t y f o r t h e b reporting Districts. All D i s t r i c t s r e p o r t a f a l l i n g off i n h a r d w a r e s a l e s a s compared w i t h t h e p r e c e d i n g month, but D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) i s u n i q u e i n showing a v e r a g e s a l e s f o r 25 r e p o r t i n g c o n c e r n s s u b s t a n t i a l l y t h e same a s a y e a r a g o , w h e r e a s i n t h e o t h e r d i s t r i c t s , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 17% t o a b o u t 39$- d e c l i n e s have ranged from R e p o r t i n g shoe f i r m s i n D i s t r i c t No. 6 -°-3- X-3034 ( A t l a n t a ) , No. 7 (Chicago), and. No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , record d e c l i n e s v a r y i n g from 37-7$ t o 47, 9^« BEub D i s t r i c t No, 5 (Richmond) r e p o r t s a r e d u c t i o n of 78.8% i n s a l e s a s compared w i t h December 1919. RETAIL TRADE - The general s i t u a t i o n i n r e t a i l t r a d e h a s been c h a r a c t e r i z e d by c o n s i d e r a b l e buying, but t h i s has been of a c a r e f u l and d i s criminating nature. Thus i t i s s t a t e d from D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . Louis) t h a t " t h e p u b l i c i s a s d i s c r i m i n a t i n g a s h e r e t o f o r e , but i s p u r c h a s i n g where p r i c e s seem t o square w i t h i t s idea of cheapness". As would be expected i n view of t h e h o l i d a y season, December s a l e s i n g e n e r a l have i n c r e a s e d over t h o s e f o r November, a l t h o u g h not to t h e same e x t e n t i n a l l s e c t i o n s . • In D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) the December volume of s a l e s "seems t o have held i t s own w i t h t h a t of l a s t y e a r , " a l t h o u g h many s t o r e s a t t r i b u t e t h i s t o " a heavy mark down i n p r i c e s . " R e t a i l t r a d e i n December "took a n upward t u r n of s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n s " i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) , having i n c r e a s e d 26.3$, while in D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) an i n c r e a s e of $4.1# was shown. In both t h e s e D i s t r i c t s , however, a decrease from l a s t year i s shown, amounting t o 2 , 9 $ i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) and 4 . 3 $ i n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) , but i n D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) t h e r e was an i n c r e a s e of 10,6$. December s a l e s of Boston s t o r e s increased o u t s i d e s t o r e s decreased 6 . 4 $ . over a year a g o , but s a l e s of Many of t h e l a t t e r a r e l o c a t e d i n "one i n d u s t r y " c i t i e s , and they promptly f e e l t h e e f f e c t of b u s i n e s s d e p r e s s i o n in that industry. R e t a i l t r a d e s i n c e Christmas on t h e whole h a s been b e t t e r i n Boston t h a n i t was a year ago, although country s t o r e s g e n e r a l l y r e p o r t a s l i g h t f a l l i n g off i n s a l e s . In general throughout t h e country, however, merchants have n o t r e s t o r e d d e p l e t e d s t o c k s . In p r a c t i c a l l y a l l D i s t r i c t s stocks a t t h e c l o s e of December were considerably l e s s than a t t h e c l o s e of 154 -24November. X-3034 The d e c r e a s e i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) amounted t o 18-3$> i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) t o 2 5 - 9 i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) 2 8 . 8 and i n D i s t r i c t No. 12, (San F r a n c i s c o ) , l4„3%* No tendency e x i s t s t o p l a c e new o r d e r s f o r f u t u r e d e l i v e r y , f u r t h e r r e c e s s i o n s of o u t s t a n d i n g o r d e r s b e i n g t h o s e of 2 . 5 $ i n D i s t r i c t No, 5 (Richmond), 2-7^ i n D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) , and 5 , 8 $ i n D i s t r i c t No. 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) . BUILDING - For the f i r s t time i n some months, an i n c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e of p e r m i t s i s s u e d i s shown i n some D i s t r i c t s i n December. The num- ber of p e r m i t s i s s u e d , however, w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of s c a t t e r e d c e n t e r s h a s continued t h e dec re ase c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of p r e c e d i n g months. The b u i l d - i n g c o n t r a c t s awarded i n New York S t a t e and n o r t h e r n New J e r s e y , D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York), a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r e p o r t s of t h e F.W, Dodge Company were 616 p r o j e c t s a t a cost of $17,000,000 f o r December w h i l e i n November t h e r e were 6§4 p r o j e c t s a t a cost of $29,500,000. In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) , t h e d e c r e a s e was l a r g e s t , t h e d e c r e a s e b e i n g from $2,303,445 t o $1,443,715In D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) t h e number of p e r m i t s i s s u e d d e c r e a s e d , but t h e r e was a very l a r g e i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e , t h i s b e i n g $8,976, 700 i n Decemb e r a s a g a i n s t $5,901,026 i n November. The v a l u e of p e r m i t s i s s u e d t o . Cleveland i n c r e a s e d from $2,402,100 i n November t o $6,391,99'+ i n December. During December a d e c r e a s e was shown i p p r a c t i c a l l y every c i t y i n D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) when compared w i t h t h e same month a y e a r ago, t h e v a l u e b e i n g only a b o u t 40 per c e n t . In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) l a r g e d e c r e a s e s were noted i n t h e l e a d i n g c i t i e s , w h i l e some i n c r e a s e s were n o t e d i n some of t h e s m a l l e r c i t i e s . I t i s r e p o r t e d i n D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) , t h a t "a heavy slump i n number of b u i l d i n g p e r m i t s and d o l l a r v a l u e s involved i s shown i n r e p o r t s of l e a d i n g c i t i e s of t h e D i s t r i c t f o r December. X-30J4 -25- V i r t u a l l y n o t h i n g i n t h e way of new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s b e i n g undertaken a t t h e moment." In D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) December b u i l d i n g o p e r a t i o n s , when measured by number of permits# decreased one t h i r d from the November f i g u r e s , b u t t h e v a l u a t i o n i n c r e a s e d 21$, due e n t i r e l y t o Duluth and S u f g r j o r o p e r a t i o n s , which c i t i e s a l o n e showed an increase in valuation. number of p e r m i t s i s s u e d . Minnesota a l o n e showed an i n c r e a s e i n t h e D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) , s t a t e s t h a t "The showing made by t h e December r e p o r t s on b u i l d i n g was somewhat better than anticipated," There was a d ecreas e i n every l e a d i n g c i t y of D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of S h r e v e p o r t , La. a s compared w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s month. When compared w i t h t h e c l o s i n g month of 1919 t h e r e was a d e c r e a s e of 66.8% f o r the n i n e l e a d i n g c i t i e s , • Austin and Beaumont b e i n g t h e only c i t i e s showing i n c r e a s e s . District No. 12,(San F r a n c i s c o ) r e p o r t s t h a t , " B u i l d i n g a c t i v i t y i n t h i s D i s t r i c t d u r i n g December 1920 was 5 , 8 $ g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t of November. Each of t h e p r i n c i p a l c e n t e r s except Los Angeles, where a d e c l i n e of 39*3^ t h e v a l u e of p e r m i t s o c c u r r e d , r e p o r t e d an i n c r e a s e i n v a l u e but a d e c r e a s e i n t h e number of p e r m i t s i s s u e d . 156 X-30}4 —26— PRICES. In e a r l y January c e r t a i n s t a p l e s - n o t a b l y g r a i n s , c o t t o n , and o t h e r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t s r o s e i n p r i c e but l a t e r i n t h e month d e c l i n e d ag&in. At t h e same time o t h e r l e a d i n g commodities such a s crude and r e f i n e d o i l s and bituminous coal which had n o t been g r e a t l y a f f e c t e d i n e a r l i e r months were i n c r e a s i n g l y weak, w h i l e i r o n and s t e e l p r o d u c t s and many l e s s important commodities continued t o d e c l i n e . One of t h e s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e s of t h e e a r l y p e r i o d of t h e p r e s e n t p r i c e movement was t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e degree t o which i n d i v i d u a l commodities were a f f e c t e d . T e x t i l e s and l e a t h e r s were p r a c t i c a l l y w i t h - out a market a t t h e same time t h a t s t e e l p r o d u c t s , g a s o l i n e , k e r o s e n e , e t c . were i n heavy demand. By January, however, t h i s s i t u a t i o n had changed and p r a c t i c a l l y a l l i n d u s t r i e s - t h e unimportant a s w e l l a s t h e important - had begun t o make p r i c e r e v i s i o n s . i r o n and s t e e l , In some c a s e s , n o t a b l y copper, coke and l i v e s t o c k , t h e r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e course of t h e l a s t t h r e e or f o u r months have been very heavy, w h i l e i n o t h e r s such a s a n t h r a c i t e c o a l , comparatively s l i g h t changes t h u s f a r have been made. In t h e wool and s i l k markets something more n e a r l y a p p r o a c h - i n g s t a b i l i z a t i o n of v a l u e s e x i s t e d i n January t h a n i n e a r l i e r months. Although t h e r e was t h u s e s t a b l i s h e d a more s a t i s f a c t o r y t r a d i n g b a s i s i n t h e s e raw m a t e r i a l s m a r k e t s , t h e same was n o t t h e case a s r e g a r d s f i n i s h ed p i e c e goods. In t h e s e l i n e s t r a d i n g continued on a v e r y l i m i t e d s c a l e . A c o m p i l a t i o n of t h e Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s shows a n a v e r a g e r e d u c t i o n i n t h e c o s t of l i v i n g f o r t h e whole country of about ~J% between June and December of l a s t y e a r . This e s t i m a t e i s based upon a study of p r i c e s i n J2 l e a d i n g c i t i e s , t h e g r e a t e s t d e c l i n e i n any c i t y amounting -27t o 10%, t h e l e a s t t o 2 ^ . X-ZCTtU N e v e r t h e l e s s t h e December l e v e l of t h e cost of l i v i n g i n the country a s a whole i s s t i l l a p p r o x i m a t e l y t w i c e a s high a s b e f o r e t h e war. FINANCIAL. F i n a n c i a l l y t h e month has been encouraging. The im- provement i n t h e Federal Reserve r a t i o which brought t h e p e r c e n t a g e up t o about a t t h e c l o s e of January was due t o steady l i q u i d a t i o n of l o a n s by member banks and t o r e d u c t i o n of r e d i s c o u n t accomodations a t t h e Federal Reserve Banks. Slackening i n t ^ e demand f o r c r e d i t r e s u l t e d i n a m a t e r i a l r e d u c t i o n in t h e t o t a l o u t s t a n d i n g volume of c i r c u l a t i o n , amounting i n t h e month t o about $50,000,000, w h i l e gold h o l d i n g s i n c r e a s e t o $25,000,000 n e t . In p r i v a t e f i n a n c e the month h&s been a p e r i o d of improvement of value i n most c l a s s e s of s e c u r i t i e s . Various minor i s s u e s of f o r e i g n p u b l i c bonds have been f l o a t e d w i t h success and a number of r e l a t i v e l y important p r i v a t e i s s u e s have been s o l d t o t h e p u b l i c , a l t h o u g h a l l of t h e s e s a l e s have taken p l a c e a t r a t e s which i n d i c a t e a c o n t i n u a t i o n of high l e v e l s of i n t e r e s t . Al- though d u r i n g t h e month t h e c a l l money r a t e was f o r a s h o r t time a s low a s 6 p e r cent i n t h e New York market, i t promptly r e a c t e d t o 7 p e r c e n t , while time f u n d s have been r e l a t i v e l y s c a r c e . The s h r i n k - age i n b u s i n e s s h a s been accompanied by a comparative d e c l i n e i n t h e a c t i v i t y of t h e use of bank d e p o s i t s . Demand f o r t h e b e s t c l a s s of bankers a c c e p t a n c e s has continued good and w h i l e e x p o r t t r a d e and paper growing out of i t have been i n a n u n c e r t a i n c o n d i t i o n t h e r e has been a somewhat unexpected but n e v e r t h e l e s s g r a t i f y i n g improvement i n t h e v a l u e s of n e a r l y a l l f o r e i g n currency, s t e r l i n g e s p e c i a l l y making a n o t a b l e gain and r e a c h i n g a l e v e l h i g h e r t h a n any a t t a i n e d s i n c e J u l y , 1920. The e v e n t s of t h e month, t h e r e f o r e , a r e r e g a r d e d by f i n a n - c i a l o b s e r v e r s a s h a v i n g on t h e whole been of an e n c o u r a g i n g n a t u r e .
@FedFRASER