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878
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BOARD
STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS
For r e l e a s e i n morning papers,
October 1 , 1$20.
X-20l6
September 2$,1$20„
The f o l l o w i n g i s a review of general b u s i n e s s
and f i n a n c i a l c o n d i t i o n s throughout the s e v e r a l
Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t s during the month of
September, a s contained i n the forthcoming i s s u e
of the Federal Reserve B u l l e t i n *
Continuance of the p r o c e s s of readjustment i n b u s i n e s s and i n d u s t r y ,
w i t h p r o g r e s s toward a more s t a b l e c o n d i t i o n , accompanied by p r i c e r e v i s i o n s and by the resumption of work i n some branches of industry where
h e s i t a t i o n a s t o f u t u r e outlook had l e d t o suspension, have been the
o u t s t a n d i n g f e a t u r e s of t h e b u s i n e s s and economic movement during the month
of September.
A f t e r an apparent s l o w i n g down i n the p r i c e r e d u c t i o n
movement during midsummer, i t has a g a i n reappeared and the past month has
seen s u b s t a n t i a l c u t s i n well-known automobile makes, t e x t i l e s of v a r i o u s
classes,
shoes and l e a t h e r goods, and i n other w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s *
have occurred i n a v a r i e t y of s t a p l e s i n c l u d i n g wheat«
Reductions
Changes i n p r i c e s
have tended t o make b u s i n e s s men and bankers c a u t i o u s about f u t u r e commitments*
A c c o r d i n g l y , a s has o f t e n been observed i n the p a s t during p e r i o d s
of b u s i n e s s readjustment, b u s i n e s s i s now b e i n g done upon a s h o r t e r term
c r e d i t b a s i s than i s normal, pending c l a r i f i c a t i o n of the current p r o c e s s
of readjustment.
E x c e l l e n t crop y i e l d s have r e s u l t e d i n s u s t a i n i n g buying
power, w h i l e improved movement on the r a i l w a y s has g i v e n assurance of
s t e a d i e r and e a r l i e r marketing than has been b e l i e v e d p o s s i b l e .
Banking
c o n d i t i o n s i n s e v e r a l d i s t r i c t s have d e c i d e d l y improved and from some i t i s
reported t h a t b u s i n e s s e n t e r p r i s e s are working i n t o a p o s i t i o n t o f i n a n c e
t h e m s e l v e s t o a g r e a t e r degree by r e d u c i n g i n v e n t o r i e s and by e x e r c i s i n g more
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X-2016
c a r e f u l scrutiny over c r e d i t s .
The crop moving p r o c e s s has gone ahead
on tha whole smoothly; and t h s peak of the demand f o r funds has p r a c t i c a l l y passed without s e r i o u s inconvenience and with no prospect of
an increase of d i f f i c u l t y .
On September 25th the r e s e r v e r a t i o f o r
the Federal Reserve System a s a whole stood a t 43-6 per cent, a s
compared with 43.2 per cent on August 27th.
Speculation, both in
level
commodities and i n s e c u r i t i e s , has been a t a r e l a t i v e l y low
and t h e r e
has been a g r a t i f y i n g d i v e r s i o n of banking funds to the s e r v i c e of
productive industry i n many l i n e s .
From various Federal Reserve
D i s t r i c t s improving conditions and growth of optimism a r e reported*
There
i s i n d i c a t i o n t h a t business conditions are now d e f i n i t e l y on the road
toward s t a b i l i t y of a s great and confirmed a nature a s the d i s t u r b e d
p o s i t i o n of the world a t l a r g e w i l l permit.
In D i s t r i c t No. 1 ('Boston) "New England i n d u s t r i e s and trade a r e
s t i l l f e e l i n g t h e i r way cautiously but with confidence toward the obj e c t i v e of s t a b l e business and f i n a n c i a l c o n d i t i o n s . "
apparently due almost wholly to the p r i e s s i t u a t i o n .
m a t e r i a l s have undergone no s u b s t a n t i a l change.
Uncertainty i s
Markets f o r raw
There i s p a r t i a l r e -
sumption of manufacturing a c t i v i t y and a hopeful outlook i n r e t a i l t r a d e ,
A more o p t i m i s t i c f e e l i n g e x i s t s than was p r e s e n t l a s t month.
In D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York) the Reserve Bank ceased t o be a lender
to other Federal Reserve Banks, became a l a r g e borrower from them, and
then very r e c e n t l y r e p a i d those borrowings i n f u l l , thus r e f l e c t i n g
changes in money c o n d i t i o n s i n the D i s t r i c t .
Improved r a i l r o a d operation
has r e s u l t e d i n much b e t t e r marketing of goods.
"A n o t a b l e change appears
to have taken p l a c e i n the e f f i c i e n c y of l a b o r , " twenty-one out of t h i r t y one of t h e l a r g e s t c o r p o r a t i o n s in t h e country r e p o r t i n g improvement ,
,
-3while none r e p o r t any decrease.
880
X-2016
Stock market c o n d i t i o n s have p a r t i a l l y
r e c o v e r e d , c o r p o r a t e f i n a n c i n g has f a l l e n o f f , European exchanges have
continued weak, and p r i c e d e c l i n e s have gone f u r t h e r than a month ago.
Some r e d u c t i o n s i n manufacturing a c t i v i t y a r e r e p o r t e d .
In D i s t r i c t No. 3 (Philadelphia) " a m a t e r i a l improvement in
t r a n s p o r t a t i o n * * * has taken p l a c e . "
Readjustment of t e x t i l e s t o
post-war conditions i s s t i l l proceeding.
The banking s i t u a t i o n i s sound*
"The l a b o r s i t u a t i o n grows more r e a s s u r i n g a s time goes on,"
while
" r e t a i l t r a d e has continued a c t i v e and i t i s expected t h a t a l a r g e
volume of f a l l and w i n t e r business w i l l be done,11
In D i s t r i c t No. 4 (Cleveland) t h e r e has been some improvement i n
banking c o n d i t i o n s accompanied by " l i q u i d a t i o n of f r o z e n c r e d i t s , " a n
i n c r e a s e j. n desand f o r acceptances, marked improvement i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and shipping conditions, but a f a l l i n g off i n new business, i n
a l l q u a r t e r s of the i r o n and s t e e l market.
,
In D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) " r e p o r t s i n d i c a t e improving conditions
with
in l a b o r f i e l d s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ,
evidence of a downward trend
i n many p r i c e s * '
Complaint of t i g h t money i s
general, but on t h e whole e f f o r t s of banks t o r e s t r i c t l o a n s t o necessary
work i s commended."
Slackness of new business and continued work i n
f a c t o r i e s on accumulated back orders r e p r e s e n t s the s i t u a t i o n i n t h e
t e x t i l e f i e l d a s well a s i n some o t h e r s .
In D i s t r i c t No. 6 (Atlanta) the crop moving season i s entered "with
no cause f o r alarm. " No anxiety i s being f e l t f o r t h e f i n a n c i n g of the
current crop.
p r i c e changes.
Caution i s being exercised i n many l i n e s on account of
D e t e r i o r a t i o n i n t h e cotton condition i n d i c a t e s t h e prob-
a b i l i t y of a r e d u c t i o n i n y i e l d .
A s e r i o u s s i t u a t i o n has developed i n
881
X-20l6
the Alabaira c o a l mines, but i r o n and s t e a l p r o d u c t i o n " i s reported a s
very s a t i s f a c t o r y , "
In D i s t r i c t No, 7 (Chicago) i t i s s t a t e d t h a t "primary w e a l t h , which
has been v a s t l y i n c r e a s e d * * * by the m a g n i f i c e n t crops of 1^20, i s cont r i b u t i n g much t o the s t a b i l i z a t i o n of economic c o n d i t i o n s i n t h e p r o c e s s
of b u s i n e s s readjustment * * *"
"There i s s t i l l s u f f i c i e n t i n the e x i s t i n g
s i t u a t i o n t o c a l l f o r the c o n t i n u a t i o n of c o n s e r v a t i s m . "
There i s a
general b e l i e f t h a t s e r i o u s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n t r o u b l e s are over and w h i l e
some s i g n s of s l o w i n g down i n a number of i n d u s t r i e s a r e n o t i c e d there i s
improvement i n the l a b o r s i t u a t i o n and growth of
optimism i n manu-
facturing.
In D i s t r i c t Wo. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) "the predominating trend i s i n the
d i r e c t i o n of f u r t h e r readjustment,
but the p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n t h i s
change have bean gradual and orderly enough t o produce only minor d i s turbance i n b u s i n e s s and f i n a n c e . "
p r i c e d e c l i n e s have t a k e n p l a c e but
they have been s p o r a d i c .
The p u b l i c i s s t i l l i n nesd of goods and has
s t r o n g purchasing power.
Merchandise, however, i s more abundant.
c u l t u r a l r e s u l t s i n the D i s t r i c t continue the b a s i s f o r optimism."
"AgriFuel
c o n d i t i o n s show improvement.
In D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) p r i c e d e c l i n e s have been q u i t e g e n e r a l .
A f a l l i n g o f f i n e a r l i e r crop e s t i m a t e s p l a c e s the expected p r o d u c t i o n
(combined) of wheat, o a t s , b a r l e y , r y e , corn and f l a x a t 8 2 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 bushels,
a d e c l i n e of about 3 ^ , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s from the p r e d i c t i o n s of a month ago*
This d e c l i n e has "not be^n l a r g e enough t o undermine b u s i n e s s c o n f i d e n c e . "
E f f o r t i s s t i l l b e i n g made t o move g r a i n more r a p i d l y and t h e f u e l s i t u a t i o n
i s s t i l l a problem.
In D i s t r i c t No. 1 0 (Kansas C i t y ) t h e r e i s "good p r o g r e s s toward a
r e t u r n t o normal
conditions."
E x c e p t i o n a l l y l a r g e crops a r e b e i n g h a r v e s t e d .
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&&&
P r o d u c t i o n h a s about caught up w i t h demand and t h e r e i s l e s s d i f f i c u l t y
i n o b t a i n i n g s u p p l i e s of manufactured goods,
The demand f o r money and
c r e d i t c o n t i n u e s s t r o n g and s a l e s of merchandise by w h o l e s a l e r s t o r e t a i l e r s and by r e t a i l e r s t o consumers have advanced somewhat.
In D i s t r i c t No, 11 ( D a l l a s ) the c r e d i t s i t u a t i o n shows but l i t t l e
change.
There i s "a s p i r i t of u n y i e l d i n g optimism" and t r a i n e d a u t h o r -
i t i e s a r e c o u n t i n g s t r o n g l y upon a heavy f a l l b u s i n e s s .
i s making good p r o g r e s s .
Cotton h a r v e s t i n g
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n has shown improvement, but r e t a i l
trade i s s t i l l q u i e t .
In D i s t r i c t No. 12 (SanFrancisco) f a v o r a b l e crop c o n d i t i o n s are
p r e v a l e n t , h a r v e s t i n g i s making good p r o g r e s s , and b u s i n e s s g e n e r a l l y
"while i n d i c a t i n g t h e h e s i t a n c y n a t u r a l under p r e s s n t r e v i s i o n s i n w h o l e s a l e p r i c e s of numerous commodities, i s reported t o be s a t i s f a c t o r y and
sound,"
F a i l u r e s a r e fewer, l a b o r f u l l y employed, and s t r i k e s or d i s -
turbances unimportant.
The Government crop r e p o r t f o r September 1 showed an i n c r e a s e i n
the e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i o n of corn and o a t s of 1 2 5 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s and
1+0,000,000 b u s h e l s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , over the August 1 e s t i m a t e , both f i g u r e s
b e i n g above t h e f i v e y e a r average, w h i l e t h e r e was a d e c r e a s e of 2 4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
b u s h e l s i n t h e e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i o n of s p r i n g wheat and the f i g u r e i s
below t h e f i v e y e a r a v e r a g e .
H a r v e s t i n g i s g e n e r a l l y making good p r o g r e s s .
In D i s t r i c t No, 9 (Minneapolis) expected g r a i n and f l a x p r o d u c t i o n ,
Agent
a s e s t i m a t e d by t h e Federal Reserve."
i s 3 4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s l e s s than
e s t i m a t e d about a month ago, an i n c r e a s e of 1 9 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s f o r corn
b e i n g more than o f f s e t by d e c r e a s e s i n a l l of t h e o t h e r c e r e a l s .
The
f i g u r e f o r wheat shows a d e c r e a s e of about 7 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s i n e a c h of the
four S t a t e s of Minnesota, North and South. Dakota and Montana, i n t h e l a s t
.of which a d e c r e a s e i n a l l of the g r a i n s i s n o t e d .
The hay crop throughout
883
—6*
the D i s t r i c t h a s been l a r g e and s a t i s f a c t o r y .
X—j. o
In D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas
C i t y ) the September government e s t i m a t e i n c r e a s e d the f i g u r e f o r corn
by 6 6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s and t h e f i g u r e f o r oats by 4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b u s h e l s ,
"Moderate t o heavy r a i n s , accompanied b y much c l o u d i n e s s and low temp e r a t u r e s " during August and the f i r s t h a l f of September r e s u l t e d i n a
continuance of t h e growth of v e g e t a t i o n from two t o f o u r weeks l a t e r than
u s u a l , but retarded the t h r e s h i n g of the 1920 wheat crop, more wheat b e i n g
stacked than u s u a l , and h a s delayed the p r e p a r a t i o n of seed beds.
In
D i s t r i c t No. 7 ( C h i c a g o ) , Iowa has "never had such a corn crop" and i n
the D i s t r i c t a c o n s i d e r a b l e p e r c e n t a g e h a s gone or w i l l go i n t o s i l a g e .
In D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) the combined c o n d i t i o n of a l l crops on
September 1 was 1 0 6 . 0 3 , as a g a i n s t 1 0 3 . 4 on August 1, and " f a l l farm
o p e r a t i o n s have been pushed on an u n u s u a l l y l a r g e s c a l e . "
Ctiast "favorable crop c o n d i t i o n s c o n t i n u e t o p r e v a i l . "
On the P a c i f i c
H a r v e s t i n g of
g r a i n and p i c k i n g of remaining f r u i t s are i n p r o g r e s s , r e p o r t s of good
y i e l d , b o t h i n q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y , are in the m a j o r i t y , but the p r i c e
outlook i s u n c e r t a i n .
.Higher p r i c e s p r e v a i l e d f o r tobacco a t the opening
of the South C a r o l i n a markets i n August 1920 than during August-1919> b u t
North Carolina opening p r i c e s were "keenly d i s a p p o i n t i n g t o t h e growers."
I t i s s t a t e d t h a t some manufacturers are s t i l l c a r r y i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e s to c ks
of l e a f t o b a c c o , w h i l e farmers p l a n t e d i n e x p e c t a t i o n of continuance of
l a s t y e a r ' s a c t i v e demand.
E x c e s s i v e r a i n f a l l during the e a r l y p a r t of
September h a s done more or l e s s damage t o the Kentucky b u r l e y tobacco
crop.
In D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) " e x c e s s i v e r a i n s and the d e c l i n e i n t h e
c o t t o n market which o c c u r r e d i n August c r e a t e d f o r a time widespread p e s s i mism among the c o t t o n growers and n o t a l i t t l e apprehension on the p a r t of
b u s i n e s s and f i n a n c i a l c i r c l e s . "
Improvement, however, i s n o t e d s i n c e t h e
884
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commencement of a p e r i o d of c l e a r weather about September 10.
Deteriora-
t i o n was noted ujf t o t h a t time i n North and East Texas, but i n South -and
West Texas
"a good y i e l d seems t o be a s s u r e d . "
E f f o r t s a r e b e i n g made
i n t h e D i s t r i c t t o p e r f e c t an o r g a n i z a t i o n of growers, the m a j o r i t y
a p p a r e n t l y b e i n g i n f a v o r of a p l a n f o r gradually marketing t h e crop
i n advance
•• •••
throughout t h e y e a r , and p r e v e n t i n g general dumping of c o t t o n
of a c t i v e
demand. Harvesting, w h i l e delayed on account of
wet weather, i s now making good p r o g r e s s , but t h e r e i s some s c a r c i t y
of l a b o r f o r p i c k i n g .
"Marked d e t e r i o r a t i o n " i n t h e c o n d i t i o n of c o t t o n
was a l s o shown i n t h e August 25 r e p o r t f o r D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) i n
a l l s t a t e s e x c e p t Tennessee, where the d e c l i n e was only one p o i n t .
Weather
c o n d i t i o n s i n many s e c t i o n s have continued unfavorable and the b o l l w e e v i l
is active.
I t i s s t a t e d t o be " f a i r l y c e r t a i n " t h a t t h e crop i n D i s t r i c t
No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) has gone backward s i n c e t h e August 25 r e p o r t , but ri'prospects
a r e s t i l l good" and " l e s s apprehension i s f e l t j u s t now r e l a t i v e t o y i e l d
than t o u l t i m a t e p r i c e s and movement of what remains of l a s t year"s crop.
"
885
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In the l i v e stock i n d u s t r y r e p o r t s from a l l s e c t i o n s of D i s t r i c t
No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) s t a t e t h a t " l i v e stock i s i n e x c e l l e n t co^di won,
t h a t animals on farms and ranges are g e n e r a l l y f r e e from d i s e a s e , and
t h a t t h e r e i s an over-abundance of f e e d f o r f a l l and w i n t e r and f o r
months t o come.*
In both t h a t D i s t r i c t and i n D i s t r i c t No. 11
( D a l l a s ) r a i n f a l l has been s u f f i c i e n t to put the ranges i n e x c e l l e n t
condition.
I t i s s t a t e d from the l a t t e r D i s t r i c t t h a t "the p r e s e n t
c o n d i t i o n of l i v e s t o c k and ranges in a l l p a r t s of the D i s t r i c t i s e x c e p t
t i o n a l l y good, and p r o s p e c t s , f or an abundance of winter f e e d were never
more e n c o u r a g i n g . "
A s t r o n g movement o f s t o c k e r s and f e e d e r s to farms
and ranges i s n o t e d i n the Kansas City D i s t r i c t , although some nervousn e s s i s e x h i b i t e d tin the part of farriers over the f u t u r e of p r i c e s , and
i n d e c i s i o n as t o the e x t e n t of f e e d i n g t o be done.
movement of s t o c k e r s and f e e d e r s from t h e South
reported.
An i n c r e a s e i n the
S t . Paul mariret i s
R e c e i p t s of c a t t l e and c a l v e s f o r f i f t e e n w e s t e r n markets
during August were 1 , ^ 5 9 , 0 $ 6 head, corresponding t o an i n d e x number of
1U5, an i n c r e a s e over the f i g u r e f o r J u l y , which was 1 , 1 8 8 , 0 1 9 head,
.corresponding t o an index number of l l g , but l ? s s than the f i g u r e of
1 , 5 4 1 , 1 3 3 head, corresponding t o an index number of 153» f o r August, 19^9•
R e c e i p t s of sheep a t t h e s e markets show s i m i l a r changes, b e i n g 1 , 6 8 8 , 7 1 9
head during August, as compared w i t h 1 , 3 0 1 , 4 5 8 head during July and
2 , 2 2 0 , 2 2 9 head during August, 19191 the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g
124, 95 and l 6 2 .
1
R e c e i p t s of h o g s , however, d e c l i n e d from 2 , 1 1 5 , 6 3 9
head i n J u l y t o 1 , 8 1 8 , 2 4 5 head i n August, corresponding t o index numbers
of 96 and S3, a s compared w i t h 1 , 5 9 5 . 7 5 9 head during August, 1919, c o r - .
responding t o an index number of 73*
Cattle receipts at s i x leading
markets i n t h e Kansas C i t y D i s t r i c t were the l a r g e s t t h i s $rear, w i t h the
e x c e p t i o n of January, a l t h o u g h much l i g h t e r than a n t i c i p a t e d ,
"the
x-2016
o
supply of c a l v e s was the h e a v i e s t ever yarded i n one month, f l the
supply of hogs was moderately heavy, w h i l e sheep r e c e i p t s were uneven,
though the b r o a d e s t demand of the year developed
t o t h e country.
for feeders to ship
The preponderance of g r a s s c a t t l e r e s u l t e d i n f r e -
quent b r e a k s i n p r i c e s , w h i l e there was weakness i n p r i c e s of medium
and common grade hogs.
Livestock markets i n t h e D a l l a s D i s t r i c t were
a g a i n d u l l , demand b e i n g small, although August c a t t l e r e c e i p t s were
35 p e r c e n t l e s s than those f o r J u l y , and "beef s t e e r s , c a l v e s and
b u t c h e r cows showed .a s t e a d y d e p r e c i a t i o n throughout the month of
August."
The r e c e n t d e c l i n e s i n h i d e and wool p r i c e s ,
i t i s stated,
"may be p l a u s i b l y c i t e d a s an important f a c t o r i n the p r e s e n t p r i c e s
of c a t t l e ,
sheep and lambs."
The movement of grain t o market h a s been l e s s than the extremely
heavy movement l a s t year.
Crop marketings i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas
C i t y ) , w h i l e "somewhat reduced from the alinorrrally heavy marketings at
t h i s time l a s t y e a r , were s u f f i c i e n t i n August f o r trade r e q u i r e m e n t s . n
While "the t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e i s s t i l l f a r from adequate, t h e r e i s
l e s s complaint of car s h o r t a g e , d e l a y e d f r e i g h t and c o n g e s t i o n a t
t e r m i n a l s , " and "a f r e e r movement of a l l f r e i g h t i s reported*"
Car
s h o r t a g e and a d e t e r m i n a t i o n on the p a r t of growers t o h o l d t h e wheat on
the farms i n s t e a d of s e l l i n g a t p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s are s a i d t o have c u r tailed receipts.
Grain r e c e i p t s a t Minneapolis during August showed an
i n c r e a s e of 32 p e r c e n t over J u l y , due t o i n c r e a s e d b a r l e y and o a t s
r e c e i p t s , a l t h o u g h corn and f l a x s e e d r e c e i p t s d e c r e a s e d .
The t o t a l
f i g u r e s were, however, o n l y t w o - t h i r d s of r e c e i p t s a year ago, and t h e
f a l l i n g o f f i s a s c r i b e d t o wet weather d e l a y i n g t h r e s h i n g i n some d i s tricts,
car s h o r t a g e in a few i n s t a n c e s , a d e s i r e t o go ahead w i t h
plowing, and a d e s i r e i n some s e c t i o n s t o h o l d g r a i n f o r p o s s i b l e h i g h e r
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prices.
The Northwest, i t i s s t a t e d , h a s not r e c e i v e d the number
of empty grain c a r s which were promised.
R e c e i p t s during the four
weeks ending August 1 were $ 2 . $ per c e n t and during the four weeks
ending Augu.st 28, 6 l . 2 p e r c e n t of the number p r o v i d e d i n the
I n t e r s t a t e Commerce Commission o r d e r s .
Flour p r o d u c t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No. 9 (Minneapolis) during August
was much l e s s than both a month ago and a year ago, the d e c r e a s e
between the two four-week p e r i o d s i n J u l y and August b e i n g 1 5 P e r
cent.
The"flour s i t u a t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas C i t y ) was
q u i e t during August, s a l e s b e i n g s c a t t e r e d and m o s t l y i n small l o t s ,
as buyers a n t i c i p a t e d lower prices-..
The t e x t i l e s i t u a t i o n during the month has been of unusual
importance i n a l l of the producing d i s t r i c t s .
An o u t s t a n d i n g e v e n t
h a s been a r e d u c t i o n o f 33 l / 3 P e r c e n t by the Amoskeag M i l l s of
Manchester, N. H., w h i l e the a c t i o n of t h e American Woolen Company i n
cutting i t s
prlC6a
from 15 to 2$ per c e n t and resuming o p e r a t i o n s
a f t e r a two months' shutdown e s t a b l i s h e s a new l e v e l of b a s i c v a l u
in an important branch of the woolen i n d u s t r y .
Corresponding r e d u c t i o n s
i n the p r i c e s charged by important w h o l e s a l e r s and r e t a i l e r s i n
d i f f e r e n t p a r t s of t h e country are t e n d i n g t o t r a n s f e r the b e n e f i t s of
p r i c e r e d u c t i o n s from manufacturers and w h o l e s a l e r s t o consumers.
In
t h i s c o n n e c t i o n the r e d u c t i o n s made by the two l a r g e s t mail order h o u s e s
i n the country are symtomatic of general c o n d i t i o n s .
Seme l i n e s
t e x t i l e p r o d u c t i o n a r e showing c o n s i d e r a b l e d e p r e s s i o n on account of
f a i l u r e of demand t o r e v i v e .
In D i s t r i c t No. 1 (Boston) p r i c e s f o r raw wool have dropped
s l i g h t l y during the past month and. there have b e e n some s a l e s , but n o t
i n l a r g e quantities, m o s t l y domestic weoL coming on a consignment b a s i s .
P r i v a t e s a l e s of B r i t i s h wool have occurred and the s t o c k i s reduced
to about 7 , 0 0 0 b a l e s , w h i l e the government s t i l l has about 5 9 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
pounds l e f t .
The woolen and worsted goods i n d u s t r i e s i n the d i s t r i c t
are s t a t e d to be "probably l o o k i n g to the f u t u r e somewhat more hopef u l l y , but i n s p i t e of g r a t i f y i n g s a l e s which i t i s r e p r e s e n t e d t h a t ,
the American Woolen Company made a s a r e s u l t of p r i c e readjustments,
b u s i n e s s i n woolens i s slower, p o s s i b l y because of changing p u b l i c
p r e f e r e n c e f o r h a r d e r - f a c e d goods, and the e f f e c t on the i n d u s t r y a t
l a r g e appears n o t t o have produced as y e t any general stimulus*"
Nevertheless,
there i s s t i l l an impression t h a t s t o c k s of d e a l e r s are
low, and that a r e v i v a l of a c t i v i t y cannot be i n d e f i n i t e l y delayed.
In D i s t r i c t No* 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a )
If
the e n t i r e woolen i n d u s t r y i s
showing s i g n s of r e c o v e r y , " and a 25 per cent r e d u c t i o n f o r spring
l i n e s i s b r i n g i n g buyers i n t o the market*
Jobbers i n an e f f o r t t o
f o r c e b u s i n e s s here and there have been s e l l i n g s t o c k s a t p r i c e s below
r e c e n t q u o t a t i o n s and some are now r a i s i n g them again*
Clothing
manufacturers have, however, come i n t o the market only s l o w l y .
worsted yarn market i s t a k i n g on a f i r m e r tone.
The
There i s g e n e r a l l y
throughout the i n d u s t r y a r a t h e r b e t t e r f e e l i n g and i n some quarters
machinery i s b e i n g s t a r t e d up in the hope t h a t i t may be k e p t running,
even though f u l l time o p e r a t i o n may n o t be p o s s i b l e f o r some weeks to
come*
On the P a c i f i c Coast t r a d i n g i n wool has r e c e n t l y shown more
a c t i v i t y than a t any time s i n c e May when the d e c l i n e i n p r i c e s began.
Many o p e r a t o r s b e l i e v e t h a t the low l e v e l has been reached and t h a t
trading w i l l be more a c t i v e from now on.
The e s t i m a t e d 1920 wool c l i p
f o r D i s t r i c t No, 12 (San F r a n c i s c o ) i s 5 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 pounds, of which
24$ has been s o l d , w h i l e the b a la n ce h a s been c o n s i g n e d t o warehouses
-12-
X-2016
in P o r t l a n d , (Oregon), Chicago, and Boston.
In c o t t o n goods i t i s r e p o r t e d from D i s t r i c t No, 1 (Boston) on
the a u t h o r i t y of l o c a l c o t t o n b r o k e r s t h a t "never i n t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e
has t h e r e been such an u n s a t i s f a c t o r y s i t u a t i o n i n t h e i r l i n e . "
The
v a r i a t i o n s i n p r i c e s f o r c o t t o n of d i f f e r e n t grades have producsd an
i r r e g u l a r market and c r e a t e d a f e e l i n g of u n c e r t a i n t y .
While New
© i s l a n d c o t t o n m i l l s have in many c a s e s been o p e r a t i n g on f u l l time,
or n e a r l y so, some are b e g i n n i n g t o c o n s i d e r a c u r t a i l m e n t p o l i c y .
This c u r t a i l m e n t i s e x p e c t e d t o grow f u r t h e r u n l e s s there i s a turn f o r
the b e t t e r i n the s i t u a t i o n .
For the month of August there was a
consumption of 1 6 6 , 0 0 0 b a l e s in New England m i l l s , While the stock h e l d
i n the m i l l s was r e p o r t e d as 610,000 b a l e s .
P r i c e s a r e quoted h i g h e r
than a year ago i n some l i n e s , but t h i s i s n o t g e n e r a l l y the c a s e .
In
D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( H i i l a d e l p h i a ) the raw c o t t o n market c o n t i n u e s weak w i t h
a l i k e c o n d i t i o n in c o t t o n yarns.
There i s p r a c t i c a l l y no demand f o r
c o t t o n yarns w i t h q u o t a t i o n s a t from $0 to 60 per c e n t below the peak
p r i c e s of the year,
commitments."
"The k n i t goods i n d u s t r y * * * i s making no
No demand f o r c o t t o n goods e x i s t s and "production i s
a t the l o w e s t p o s s i b l e p o i n t . "
industry continue.
C a n c e l l a t i o n s i n t h e c o t t o n goods
C o l l e c t i o n s are f a r from s a t i s f a c t o r y .
wares t h e r e i s a tendency to the r e d u c t i o n of p r i c e s .
v a l u e s f o r men's s h i r t s i s moving downward.
In small
The l e v e l of
The outlotik i n the
i n d u s t r y f o r the remainder of the year i s e n t i r e l y dependent upon the
demand from consumers.
R e t a i l e r s are r e f r a i n i n g from buying.
In D i s t r i c t No. 5 (Richmond) i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t p r e s e n t p r i c e s
f o r c o t t o n are b e l o w c o s t of p r o d u c t i o n , but d e s p i t e the trade l e t h a r g y
l e t t e r s received are o p t i m i s t i c .
x
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-201fc
The boot and. shoe s i t u a t i o n i s s t i l l p a s s i n g through a t r a n s i t i o n
stage.
In New England i t c o n t i n u e s t o f e e l the r e s u l t of heavy c a n -
c e l l a t i o n of o r d e r s , but n e v e r t h e l e s s t h e dominant n o t e i s one o f
optimism, though b u y e r s a r e p o s t p o n i n g t h e p l a c i n g of orders a s l a t e a s
possible.
F a c t o r i e s are o p e r a t i n g •rron.seJjv-atirelj*, e x p e c t i n g t o ran f o r
a w h i l e on s h o r t e r time or lower q u a n t i t y of p r o d u c t i o n , and under t h e s e
c o n d i t i o n s t h e r e h a s b e e n an ample supply of l a b o r f o r current o p e r a t i n g
requirements.
The c o n d i t i o n i n most p l a c e s h a s tended to b r i n g abou#
abandonment of demands f o r h i g h e r wages.
price l e v e l s i s proceeding gradually.
The movement toward, lower
In D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago)
the l e a t h e r trade i s f e e l i n g the e f f e c t ' o f c u r t a i l m e n t of automobile
den.and, w h i l e the tanning and shoe b u s i n e s s "has been e x c e e d i n g l y d u l l
during the p a s t s o u t h , w i t h tanners o p e r a t i n g about one*half of
capacity."
cautiously,
In the shoe trade w h o l e s a l e r s and r e t a i l e r s are p r o c e e d i n g
"buying o n l y f o r immediate n e e d s . "
In D i s t r i c t No. 5
(Richmond) shoes a r e moving f r e e l y but w i t h more s a n i t y shown in buying
than i n t h e p a s t two or three y e a r s .
I n D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a )
f a l l and w i n t e r shoes a r e on a r e t a i l p r i c e b a s i s about equal to 1919*
Shoe salesmen r e p o r t r a t h e r l i m i t e d s a l e s , buyers b e i n g c a u t i o u s .
Manufacturers, however, s e e n o p r o s p e c t of an e a r l y d e c r e a s e i n p r i c e .
Although l e a t h e r h a s f a l l e n o f f , o t h e r m a t e r i a l s and l a b o r have tended
t o advance.
Manufacturing c o n d i t i o n s are s a t i s f a c t o r y but t h e r e i s
l i t t l e improvement i n the tanning i n d u s t r y and p r i c e s a r e i r r e g u l a r .
There i s f a i r b u s i n e s s i n l e a t h e r b e l t i n g .
C o n d i t i o n s i n other p a r t s
of t h e country a r e n o t m a t e r i a l l y d i f f e r e n t .
In the i r o n and s t e e l trade the month h a s b e e n a p e r i o d of change.
Production of i r o n and s t e e l i n August was t h e l a r g e s t of any month i n
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X-2C3.6
tha p r e s e n t y e a r , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of March, and output h a s continued
to rise steadily.
According t o D i s t r i c t No. 4 ( C l e v e l a n d ) g e n e r a l
r e d u c t i o n of accumulated s t o c k s of i r o n and s t e a l i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e
p o s i t i o n of the Carnegie S t e e l Company which has reduced i t s yard p i l e s
t o about 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s and of f i n i s h e d m a t e r i a l t o about 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s ,
a r e d u c t i o n of approximately ] 0 per cent from the h i g h p o i n t .
"Present
s t e e l s t o c k s i n the Mahoning v a l l e y a r e e s t i m a t e d a t 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s , "
C o i n c i d e n t , however, w i t h the i n c r e a s e i n shipments "a m a t e r i a l f a l l i n g
o f f of new b u s i n e s s has been noted i n a l l q u a r t e r s of t h e i r o n and s t e e l
market."
Consumers show g r e a t e r c a u t i o n .
There i s small f u t u r e buying,
However, w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n of the automobile i n d u s t r y ,
"from which
c a n c e l l a t i o n s and s u s p e n s i o n s of i r o n and s t e e l have been r e c e i v e d q u i t e
f r e e l y , the a b s o r p t i v e power of consumption appears t o have been l i t t l e
altered,"
The d e c l i n e i n orders has been viewed by many producers
w i t h o u t e s p e c i a l concern and they are welcoming the opportunity t o
convert t h e i r u n f i l l e d o b l i g a t i o n s .
slowly.
Railroad buying i s d e v e l o p i n g
P r i c e s a r e shewing no g e n e r a l weakness.
The ore movement i s
improving, i n t e r i o r f u r n a c e s b e i n g much b e t t o r s u p p l i e d a s c a r s a r e
much mora numerous.
In D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) the improvement
i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o n d i t i o n s has been of great a s s i s t a n c e t o manufacture r s i n i r o n and s t e a l , t h e accumulated s t o c k s a r e b e i n g reduced, and
demand f o r i r o n and s t e e l and t h e i r products i s s t i l l regarded a s strong,
a l t h o u g h t h e r e i s a d i m i n u t i o n i n new b u s i n e s s .
marked f a l l i n g o f f i n f o r e i g n b u s i n e s s .
Reports i n d i c a t e a
Bad c o n d i t i o n s abroad and
d i f f i c u l t f o r e i g n exchange q u o t a t i o n s hurt t h e p r o s p e c t s of e x p o r t a t i o n .
There has been a c o n s i d e r a b l e d e c l i n e i n the output of s t r u c t u r a l s t e e l .
In D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) i r o n and s t e e l p r o d u c t i o n i s s a t i s f a c t o r y ,
892
1-8
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car supply i s b e t t e r , p r o d u c t i o n o f p i g i r o n i n Alabama f o r t h e month
of August was f u l l y equal to t h a t of J u l y , a c t i v i t y a t by-product p l a n t s
i n Birmingham has k e n t p r o d u c t i o n up, c a s t i r o n p i p e shipments are p r o c e e d i n g r a p i d l y , and t h e market f o r scrap i r o n and s t e e l i s s t r o n g , w i t h
p r i c e s h i g h and the demand s t e a d y .
The u n f i l l e d o r d e r s of the United S t a t e s S t e e l Corporation at the
c l o s e of August were 1 0 , 8 0 5 , 0 3 8 t o n s , corresponding to an index number
of 205, a s compared w i t h 1 1 , 1 1 8 , 4 6 8 tons a t the c l o s e of J u l y , c o r r e s ponding t o an i n d e x number of 211.
S t e e l i n g o t p r o d u c t i o n shows an
i n c r e a s e from 2 , 8 0 2 , 8 1 8 tons during J u l y to j , 0 0 0 , 4 3 2 t o n s during
August, the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g 116 and 124,
Pig iron pro-
d u c t i o n shows a s i m i l a r i n c r e a s e , b e i n g 3 , 1 4 7 , 4 0 2 t o n s during August
and 3 , 0 6 7 , 0 4 3 tons during J u l y , the r e s p e c t i v e index numbers b e i n g 136
and 132,
In c o a l production t h e r e i s a somewhat " s po tty " s i t u a t i o n .
D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) r e p o r t s t h a t the a n t h r a c i t e output has
been d e c r e a s e d by the s t r i k e but i s a g a i n about approaching normal.
The cumulative p r o d u c t i o n of a n t h r a c i t e coal from January 1, 1$20, t o
September 11 was 5 9 , 1 6 0 , 0 0 0 tons a s compared w i t h 5 7 , 3 7 6 , 0 0 0 t o n s l a s t
year.
In bituminous c o a l there was a r e d u c t i o n of output about the
middle of the month o f September, but a h i g h d a i l y average i s b e i n g
k e p t up.
There h a s b e e n narked improvement in c a r d i s t r i b u t i o n .
During the f i r s t 217 working days o f t h i s year the output waa 3&9,000,000
tons a s compared w i t h 3 1 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 t o n s i n the same p e r i o d l a s t y e a r .
Bituminous c o a l p r i c e s have e a s e d o f f from the e x c e e d i n g l y h i g h l e v e l s
of r e c e n t t i m e s .
I n the Lake r e g i o n i t i s r e p o r t e d from D i s t r i c t No,
4 ( C l e v e l a n d ) t h a t c o a l i s moving b e t t e r than a year ago,
'
'
893
X-2016
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,
In the Birmingham
c o a l and i r o n d i s t r i c t the s t r i k e s are having some e f f e c t i n r e d u c i n g the coal
output, b u t the l a r g e i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r i e s which own t h e i r mines,
coal c a r s , etc* have n o t been a f f e c t e d .
In D i s t r i c t No. 10 (Kansas
C i t y ) miners a r e a t work i n a l l of the f i e l d s of the d i s t r i c t and "no
s t r i k e s a r e now t h r e a t e n i n g ,
n
so t h a t operators and d e a l e r s are more
c o n f i d e n t o f t h e i r a b i l i t y t o supply t h e demand f o r c o a l i n the f a l l
and w i n t e r months.
a
Taking the country a s / w h o l e , the production of
bituminous coal f o r August was 48,389*000 tons as compared with
^ 5 , 5 2 3 , 0 0 0 t o n s during J u l y and 4 2 , 8 8 3 , 0 0 0 t o n s during August, 1313,
the r e s p e c t i v e i n d e x numbers b e i n g 131, 123 and LL6.
-IT-
X-2CEL6
8 9 4
Matal mining during the period i n q u e s t i o n s t i l l shows some s t a g n a t i o n .
The output of gold i n C a l i f o r n i a and Nevada c o n t i n u e s t o f a l l o f f on
account of the low purchasing power of the metal.
S i l v e r mines i n Utah
and Idaho a r e working on a b a s i s which w i l l probably be s l i g h t l y ahead
of 1919-
Higher p r i c e s of s i l v e r e a r l y i n the year probably stimulated
production somewhat a s compared w i t h p r e s e n t c o n d i t i o n s .
Copper from the
Arizona r e g i o n w i l l probably be produced i n l a r g e r volume than i n 1919,
Elsewhere there i s no s u b s t a n t i a l change.
The l e a d output i n Utah and
Idaho has been small but some mines which ware i d l e are now resuming
o p e r a t i o n s , so t h a t the y i e l d f o r 192O may exceed t h a t f o r 1919.
District
. No. 1 0 (Kansas City) r e p o r t s that i n the Colorado d i s t r i c t there has been
very l i t t l e change during the month of August, but the r e c e n t advance i n
f r e i g h t r a t e s has produced some discouragement, w h i l e i n c r e a s e d c o s t s of
s u p p l i e s may f u r t h e r lower production.
Zinc and l e a d , however, have shown
c o n s i d e r a b l e improvement i n August, both i n the volume shipped and the
p r i c e paid, i n the Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas f i e l d s .
Shipments of
z i n c o r e s i n c r e a s e d 20$ over the preceding month and l e a d 12$, the average
p r i c e of zinc, ore advancing $ 1 . 0 0 and l e a d $ 1 4 . 0 0 per ton.
Stocks, however,
have i n c r e a s e d about 2 , 0 0 0 t o n s during t h e month i n s p i t e of i n c r e a s e d
shipments.
A car shortage continues t o be a s e r i o u s problem i n t h e s h i p -
ments of ore, w h i l e the new f r e i g h t r a t e s w i l l r e s u l t i n an i n c r e a s e d c o s t
of $ 4 . 0 0 per t o n f o r s l a b z i n c .
The petroleum s i t u a t i o n i n D i s t r i c t No. 1 0 (Kansas C i t y ) has been
c h a r a c t e r i z e d by h i g h production during August both i n Kansas and Oklahoma.
In the f i r s t e i g h t months of 1920 t h e s e two S t a t e s produced approximately
91,361, 000 b a r r e l s of crude o i l , a s a g a i n s t 73 j 4 $ 2 , 0 0 0 b a r r e l s f o r the
corresponding months of 1^19, an i n c r e a s e of nearly 25 per c e n t .
production i s now approaching 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 b a r r e l s per month.
Coast the average
Wyoming
On t h e P a c i f i c
p r o d u c t i o n of petroleum i n August was 4 per cent ahead
"lu"
X-2016
8 9
of t h a t of J u l y , but the s t o r e d s t o c k s continued t o d e c l i n e , i n d i c a t i n g
heavy consumption.
In D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) o i l w e l l s showed an
increased production.
The t o t a l output during August was 1 2 , 3 4 3 , 8 5 6
b a r r e l s , a g a i n of 6 p e r cent over J u l y .
been completed.
S e v e r a l important w e l l s have
The p r i c e of crude o i l has not m a t e r i a l l y changed i n
the Kansas City d i s t r i c t , w h i l e g a s o l i n e c o n t i n u e s i n s t r o n g demand,
w i t h t h e supply l i m i t e d ,
The l a b o r s i t u a t i o n f o r t h e month has p r e s e n t e d c o n s i d e r a b l e v a r i a t i o n .
In the manufacturing r e g i o n s employment has been l e s s s t e a d y owing t o
s h o r t - t i m e o p e r a t i o n s or s u s p e n s i o n s i n soma q u a r t e r s ,
In New England
( D i s t r i c t No. 1 Boston) i t i s reported that r e l a t i o n s between employers and
o p e r a t i v e s i n t h e l e a d i n g manufacturing d i s t r i c t s "would appear,, on the
s u r f a c e at l e a s t ,
t o be more harmonious than f o r some time, 1 1
During the
month agreements have been reached i n v a r i o u s branches of t h e shea i n d u s t r y .
At Lynn and H a v e r i l l an arrangement which contemplates an amicable method
of s e t t l i n g d i f f i c u l t i e s u n t i l May 1 has been p a r t i a l l y a g r e e d t o , although
o f f i c i a l acceptance i s s t i l l lacking.
various quarters.
Unemployment, however, e x i s t s i n
Wage i n c r e a s e s a r e s t i l l to be noted here and t h e r e ,
the most conspicuous one i n the Boston D i s t r i c t b e i n g t h a t accorded t o
s t r e e t railway employees i n Eastern Massachusetts out s i d e of Boston.
In
D i s t r i c t No. 3 ( P h i l a d e l p h i a ) c o n d i t i o n s a r e improving and d i s p u t e s are few.
An i n c r e a s e i n e f f i c i e n c y i s noted.
There has been d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n i n the
a n t h r a c i t e coal r e g i o n because of t h e d e c i s i o n of the Wage Scale Commission,
but many of the miners a r e now r e t u r n i n g t o work.
In the middle west i t i s
reported "from a l l p a r t s of the d i s t r i c t and a l l i n d u s t r i e s " that there i s
" i n c r e a s i n g e f f i c i e n c y on the part of l a b o r . "
i n c r e a s e i n supply.
In D i s t r i c t No. 8 ( S t . L o u i s ) t h e r e are " f u r t h e r w e l l -
d e f i n e d e v i d e n c e s of e a s i e r l a b o r c o n d i t i o n s . "
This i s coupled w i t h an
Unemployment, however, i s
-15-
£-2016
s l i g h t , wage a a r e s t e a d y , a l t h o u g h t h e r e a r e s p o r a d i c r e d u c t i o n s .
p r i n c i p a l unemployment i s i n t h e f a c t o r i e s .
The
S t r i k e s have d e c r e a s e d i n
number and s e v e r a l f o r m e r l y i n p r o g r e s s have t e r m i n a t e d .
Among t h e l a t t e r
Indiana
may be mentioned t h e f u r n i t u r e w o r k e r s ' s t r i k e i n E v a n s v i l l e / w h i c h l a s t e d
about f o u r months.
I n D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) d i s o r d e r s have occurred
i n t h e Alabama c o a l m i n e s vary.
R e p o r t s a s t o t h e number of men who a r e i d l e
The supply of farm l a b o r shows improvement, a l t h o u g h wages a r e h i g h .
On t h e P a c i f i c Coast l a b o r i s w e l l employed and t h e r e i s l i t t l e
controversy.
In D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York), a l t h o u g h t h e r e were marked d e c l i n e s i n employment i n s e v e r a l b r a n c h e s of t h e metal m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s , a s w e l l
a s i n t e x t i l e s and c l o t h i n g ,
t h e t o t a l a v e r a g e d e c r e a s e was only 2 p e r c e n t ,
a s between J u l y and A u g u s t .
The most s e r i o u s l a b o r d i f f i c u l t y i n t h e
D i s t r i c t h a s been t h e s t r i k e on t h e Brooklyn Rapid T r a n s i t l i n e s , a f f e c t i n g
s e v e r a l thousand e m p l o y e e s .
p l o y e e s show an i n c r e a s e .
The a v e r a g e w e e k l y e a r n i n g s of f a c t o r y emThere h a s been a n o t a b l e advance i n t h e number of
immigrants t o t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s p a s s i n g through the P o r t of New York.
Those who e n t e r e d i n August numbered 57>S7*+, w h i l e e m i g r a n t s numbered 3^# 982.
The s i t u a t i o n i n t h e r e t a i l t r a d e i s e s s e n t i a l l y the same a s l a s t month.
The volume of s a l e s c o n t i n u e s m o d e r a t e l y l a r g e .
P r a c t i c a l l y everywhere s a l e s
i n terms of v a l u e are g r e a t e r than t h o s e d u r i n g t h e same month l a s t y e a r .
S a l e s of e s s e n t i a l commodities i n terms of p h y s i c a l amounts a r e probably
f u l l y a s g r e a t and i n some c a s e s e x c e e d t h o s e d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d l a s t
active
year.
The demand f o r l u x u r i e s and s e m i - l u x u r i e s c o n t i n u e s f a r l e s s /than a t
the same t i m e l a s t y e a r .
t o be c h a r a c t e r i s e d
The a t t i t u d e of t h e p u r c h a s i n g p u b l i c c o n t i n u e s
a s c o n s e r v a t i v e , b e i n g f a r more e x a c t i n g i n i t s demands
a s t o q u a l i t y and p r i c e s t h a n was t h e c a s e some months a g o .
This a t t i t u d e
on t h e p a r t of t h e p u b l i c and a g e n e r a l f o o l i n g of u n c e r t a i n t y a s t o p r i c e s
i s s a i d t o be c a u s i n g merchants t o c o n t i n u e t h e a t t i t u d e of c a u t i o n i n
-20-
X-2QL6
r e p l e n i s h i n g t h o i r s t o c k s , purchasea i n most c a s e s b e i n g c h i e f l y f o r
s t r i c t l y currant n e e d s .
Reports on w h o l e s a l e trade nade by A g e n t s i n seven of t h e t w e l v e
Federal Reserve D i s t r i c t s show an improvement"in t h e volume of trade i n
August a s compared w i t h July i n a l l l i n e s i n v e s t i g a t e d except g r o c e r i e s ,
automobile s u p p l i e s , and drugs.
The a c t i v i t y of t h e hardware t r a d e was
e s p e c i a l l y emphasized, a l t h o u g h i t was r e p o r t e d from A t l a n t a t h a t
retailers in this line,
cautiously.
i n c o n t r a s t w i t h the w h o l e s a l e r s , were buying
Reports from D a l l a s and Kansas City s t a t e t h a t manufacturers
a r e unable t o supply i n needed q u a n t i t i e s commodities nade of s t e e l .
SanFrancisco and A t l a n t a r e p o r t s show improvement i n the shoe t r a d e a s
compared w i t h July of t h i s year, but i n the former case a 15 per cent
decrease from t h e t r a d e of a year ago.
Although a 0 , 4 per c e n t i n c r e a s e
was r e p o r t e d f o r the month, the Federal Reserve Agent
.at A t l a n t a s t a t e s
t h a t grocery f i r m s r e p o r t t h a t g r e a t c a u t i o n i s b e i n g e x e r c i s e d by both
w h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l s t o r e s and t h a t the trend of p r i c e s i s d e f i n i t e l y
downward, a l t h o u g h some i t e m s show i n c r e a s e s .
In D a l l a s and Kansas
City t h e s l o w i n g up of buying demand i n g r o c e r i e s i s a t t r i b u t e d by
dealers to unsettled prices*
H
The h o u s i n g shortage c o n t i n u e s t o be acute in the p r i n c i p a l c i t i e s .
I n New York the bulk of the new b u i l d i n g i s on c o n t r a c t s e x e c u t e d l a s t
s p r i n g or l a t e i n the w i n t e r .
has reached or p a s s e d i t s peak.
However, b u i l d i n g a t p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s
There has been c o n t i n u e d wrecking of
h o u s e s t o be supplanted by b u s i n e s s b u i l d i n g s .
For August, 1 , 0 1 0 c o n -
t r a c t s were awarded i n New York and Northern New J e r s e y , the v a l u a t i o n
of which was $ 3 8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 , as a g a i n s t $ 3 6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 i n J u l y .
e a s i n g i s n o t e d i n the b u i l d i n g t r a d e s .
In Chicago
Building enterprises a l l
through the Chicago D i s t r i c t are s t i l l p r a c t i c a l l y a t a s t a n d s t i l l .
Net c o s t s of b u i l d i n g a r e now 15 to 20 per c e n t lower than t h e y were a
month ago.
On the P a c i f i c Coast t h e r e was a f a l l i n g o f f i n b u i l d i n g
p e r m i t s from $ 1 5 , 5 ^ 2 , 0 0 0 i n J u l y t o $ 1 3 , 5 2 6 , 0 0 0 f o r August, b u t t h e
numb-r o f p e r m i t s i s s u e d was l a r g e r .
The f a i l u r e to b u i l d more f r e e l y
i s s t i l l a s s i g n e d t o the h i g h c o s t s of b u i l d i n g which are e s t i m a t e d a t from
two to f o u r times the pre-war c o s t s .
F i n a n c i a l l y the month has been comparatively q u i e t .
There has been
a c o n t r a c t i o n o f l o a n s i n New York'City and "for a time at least * * *
a noteworthy e a s i n g of credit.™
Considerable movements back and f o r t h
between the New York D i s t r i c t and o t h e r p a r t s of t h e c o untr y were
e f f e c t e d a s u s u a l through the g o l d s e t t l e m e n t fund.
The Federal Reserve
Bank has r e c e n t l y r e p a i d i t s borrowings a t o t h e r Federal Reserve Baanks
in full.
I n D i s t r i c t No. 7 (Chicago) money i s i n s t r o n g demand, but
customers i n some p a r t s of the D i s t r i c t are r e d u c i n g t h e i r l o a n s .
The
marketing o f g r a i n i s t e n d i n g t o lower the c a l l f o r funds i n agricultural
districts.
I n the South the c r e d i t s i t u a t i o n i s w i d e l y d i s c u s s e d , but
i t i s r e p o r t e d b y D i s t r i c t No. 11 ( D a l l a s ) t h a t there was "but l i t t l e
change i n the month of August, a l t h o u g h t h e r e was another moderate
'
„2S.
*-2016
i n c r e a s e i n the volume <?f bank l o a n s and seme d e c l i n e i n d e p o s i t s .
899
n
I n D i s t r i c t No. 6 ( A t l a n t a ) e f f o r t t o c u r t a i l expansion and t o r e t r e n c h
h a s had a good e f f e c t .
On the P a c i f i c Coast t h e r e was a d e c l i n e i n
c l e a r i n g s and t h e r e has b e e n a s l i g h t e a s i n g i n the r a t e s charged f o r
secured l o a n s ,
t o g e t h e r w i t h an i n c r e a s e in some p a r t s of the D i s t r i c t
f o r l o a n s on commercial paper.
An i n c r e a s e o f $ 1 5 , 6 2 3 , 0 0 0 of t o t a l b i l l s
on hand, accompanied by a decrease of $ 2 , 0 8 0 , 0 0 0 i n t o t a l r e s e r v e s
"are t h e s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n the p o s i t i o n of" the Federal Reserve
Bank of San F r a n c i s c o "during the p a s t month. n
A somewhat improved
c o n d i t i o n of the i n v e s t m e n t market i s r e p o r t e d from v a r i o u s p a r t s of
the c o u n t r y , Chicago s t a t i n g t h a t an encouraging s i g n i s the "growth
of t h r i f t on the p a r t of the p u b l i c " a s shown by an i n c r e a s e i n s a v i n g s
d e p o s i t s and "the l a r g e number of small i n v e s t o r s i n prime s e c u r i t i e s . *
I n New York t h e demand f o r b i l l s f e l l o f f during the p a s t t h i r t y days
and the market has been q u i e t .
The d i s t r i b u t i o n of commercial paper
c o n t i n u e s f a i r l y good, although almost e n t i r e l y w i t h country banksD e a l e r s r e p o r t a more encouraging o u t l o c k i n the Middle West.
market requirements have been mich reduced.
a v a i l a b l e a t r e l a t i v e l y moderate r a t e s .
C a l l money c o n t i n u e s
Time money h a s l o a n e d a t
t o 8 i p e r c e n t , but t h e amounts i n v o l v e d are s m a l l .
t i o n s a r e somewhat v a r i a b l e .
Stock
Collection condi-
On t h e P a c i f i c Coast r e p o r t s r e c e i v e d
from 85 f i r m s show t h a t 50# have e x p e r i e n c e d no d e c l i n e s whatever.
In
o t h e r c a s e s c o l l e c t i o n s d e c l i n e d , the f a l l i n g o f f b e g i n n i n g i n the months
of May and June and were e x h i b i t e d p a r t l y i n the d e c l i n i n g number and
volume of a c c o u n t s which took advantage of cash d i s c o u n t s , w h i l e there
was an i n c r e a s e i n the number of accounts running p a s t due.
No. 8 ( S t , L o u i s ) c o n d i t i o n s have n o t m a t e r i a l l y a l t e r e d .
In D i s t r i c t
D i s t r i c t No.
900
V
*>
X-2016
--J"
5 (Richmond.) r e p o r t s a v a r i a b l e c o n d i t i o n with, n i n e out of e i g h t e e n
r e p o r t i n g f i r m s complaining d e f i n i t e l y of s l o w n e s s i n payments»
Con-
d i t i o n s , however, are i n general "not f a r below normal f o r t h i s season
of the y e a r . "
Taking the country as a whole, c o n d i t i o n s as i l l u s t r a t e d
i n the e x t e n s i v e i n q u i r y i n t o c o l l e c t i o n c o n d i t i o n s made by the Board
which
a month ago# <
e r e s u l t s were p u b l i s h e d i n the B u l l e t i n f o r September,
shows no m a t e r i a l change,
Foreign exchange has been somewhat i r r e g u l a r
and i t i s r e p o r t e d by D i s t r i c t No. 2 (New York) t h a t d e c l i n e s i n the
p r i n c i p a l Continental exchanges have been more pronounced than i n
s t e r l i n g , f r a n c s and l i r e b e i n g " e r r a t i c " w i t h a g e n e r a l downward ten*
dency.
This i s due to seasonal o f f e r i n g of b i l l s .
exchanges have been a p a t h e t i c and s p e c u l a t i v e .
continued t o r e c e d e .
Par E a s t e r n
Rates on Argentina have
@FedFRASER