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F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B 0 A R D. t'J"lff"'"i,8·· uu'· STATEMENT FOR THE PRESS. To be relaased for morning papers, Tuesday, June 3,1919. The Federal Reserve :S.J.lletin for June was sent to the printer tod.a.y. The issue is largely devoted to the discussion of current conditions udftecti.ng :Prices of commodities and the export trade, while the Review of the Month, which is as usual the leading feature of the number, places the main emphasis upon the progress that is being made in reconstruction, and the relationship between this reconstruction process on the one hand and foreign advances and shiprr.ents on the other. With reference to the general question as to how far advances can safely and wisely be made for the purpose of improving the situation in Europe, the Bulletin says! "Not to establish a working community of prices, values and rates of yield on investn:ent would mean that interchange of goods E:.nd of investment funds among n~tions would ~eet with difficulty. The situation of the world today is such that for some time to come there will be a marked reduction of the differences between the economic systems of the leading countries. It is certainly not to the interest of any nation that other nations with which it has close relations should be seriously retarded in the legitimate use of resources and in the proportionate employment of labor. The attention of the people of the United StE.tes has naturally been focused upon the further improvelr.ent and expc.msion of domestic industry, but the position of the country when considered S1.1.CCeSs from a world standpoint shows that such expansion involves for its fullesV expansion elsewhere, both in order that purchase custo~ry markets for sale and may continue to exist for domestic products and in order that foreigners :Lay be enabled to liquidate in due time their obligations to American creditors growing out of advances made to them in the past and those - 2 - necessarily to be rr:2.de to tbern in the fv.ture. The advances according.1y impl:i.es to .<:tttain '~hat X-1560 continu~·tion of such such foraign countries shall be helped a condition in wh5.c:n they rrfl.y settle their- ind.obtedness by fully employ unless they tcre enabled to place thmnselves in a prcductive condition. Our b<:lr.king and finencial organit';.l.tion thus has a new and important function to perform- more import.:::nt ,:nd responsible than c.ny it has been called upon to perfo:::w in the past - thc:t of determining the division of capital in the int:;rn::ctional field just 'lS it h2.s heretofore been one of its principal fU.nctions to determine the division of capital within our own terri tory "''nd within different fields of industry. 11 Domestically, reconstruction is yroceeding in a satisfactory way, and conditions during the month of Mc:..y hc.v3 tended toward the developn:ent of an optomistic point of view on the p:1rt of business men ¥.nd bankers. Prices hc:.ve advc.nced slightly, and building operations are better, - a general condition of improvement which is set forth at length in the usual monthly review of business conditions. The Review of the Month, after merely refer~ing to this business iqn·ovement. notes that it is closely connected with the termination of restrictions and llmitations upon trade v along various lines. It states thc•t 11 The restoration of business to a competitive basis necessarily implies the restoration of our ba:nl;:ing and financial rr.echanism to the exercise of its normal fllilctions in connection with the developmmt of trade 'Attention is sharply called to the s:peculative situation in the stock mrket, End the relation of the banl;:ing n:echanism thereto, as follows: "One phase of the })ressnt situation which :J;Jarc.llels conditions that have existed at the close of rr;ost iorrDer wars is the devAlopment of an active speculative situation in the securities market. During the yast month operations on the New York Stock "Ecchange have been U}.;On a basis ~ractically urrprecedented since the 9pening of the war and paralleled X-1560 - 3 - only by the active rrark6t operations whi¢h marked the advent of large munitions orders when the European contest had definitely established itself. A succession of in wany classes of "million~sr~re d~ys~nith goods~ has abnormally high prices indicated the scope of the speculative movement i tself 7 while the fact that much of the buying within recent weeks is said to have corrB not from professional traders but from prospective investors throughout the country, indicates the hold which the movement is already taking upon the population of the United States. One ~anomenon which has presented itself as an incident to this speculative movement is the existence of high call money rates. These rates have at times gone as high as 7~ per cent, although only for a short period in any instance. Such fluctuations of the call money rate have promptly been followed by little more than very moderate curtailment of the volurr.e of banking accow~odation. There is here undoubtedly an elerr.ent oi danger to the financial position of the country. Ordinarily a sharp check could be administered through the advancing of the rates of rediscount at Federal Rese~e Barurs. ~ch a check for the moment encounters soma difficulty as long as tne Federal Reserve B~nks deem it necessary to promote the absorption of Liberty Loan securities by maintaining low rates. For the moment the avoidance of abnormally high loan accounts must be effected by means other than those which would ordinarily be a~plied under the methods and principles of central banking. Eventually, when circumstances will permit,and the Federal Reserve Banks assume their normal fu;1ctions making advances dhiefly against liquid comrrercial paper, reducing to snall proportions advances against United States Government collateral, a natural and effective check to . existj.ng conditions in the money rr:arket may be afforded through cllanges in rates at Federal Reserve Banks-" 341 ~· · · g1.'ven a prom"nent p1ace because of the Th is specu1ati"te sl.· t'~&tl.on 1.s ... - ' sho~tness -- of the supply of capital in various parts of the world,- a condition of affairs whic1 1 is then outlined in the review at sorce length~ ~"ne comnm..'"lity is warned that the tendency at the :present ti1TB is "Co :'att8;-;-rpt to occoqJlish too mu.ch in a short time, and to go beyond the ncct\::.rD.l limits set by available resources." It is noted ,.. that the situation abroad is one of peculiar difficulty, involving unprecedented , financial problems, and the ReYiew points out t:C.a t the. European countries must necessarily obtain large assistance from abroad. On this point the following s ta temen t is rra de : "Studies of financial and bankj.ng conditions in the principal European countries, published both in the current number of the Bulletin and in the May issue, show that the currency and banking si tua ti.on ort the Continent is unusually difficult, while it would appear that supplies of available cepital have been reduced to a minimum basis. It does not seem probable that condi~ tions in these foreign countries can be promptly restored to a normal footing without importing from abroad in very large meas11.re the funds that are needed in the process of financial rehabilitation. In tnis connection the question is pertinently raised what will be the· effects of the rcpa.rati0n which is to be made by the Central Powers as a result of the peace set.tlemf"mt .. This reparation will of course operate to create a one-sid.ed balance of trade in goods, ships , and forms of ca~ital, as well as of securities, between the Central Powersiand the countries with which they transact business. It will therefore tend to place the recipients of the reparaUon in possessiort of funds with which they may liquidate their obligations to their O\m ci "Liz ens or to foreiW1- cc"LTn7-.ries~ France, Belgium, and other continental nations are hae.vily :i.ndcbted. to l}reat Britain, as well as to the United States, whHe Great Er:. tain likewise is· a heavy debtor of this country. The reparation :paj~ents, whi+e passed through the countries which are their recipients, will thus in the last analysis furnish the basis for payments to the United States designed to liquidate the advances X-1560 - 5I made by this country to cover the cost of the war, save in so far as American investors rray prefer to leave thei;r. funds actually at work abroad." Referring to the ez:ch~nge sitm1.tion and the market fluctuations in various foreign countries, the Review calls attention to the large requirements of current financing intended for the m-.1.inten<-Lnce of the export trade, and furnishes the following analysis of the relation between the export trade and prices: 11 The priroa.ry effect of the present gre(:l.t exportation of goods from the United States is twofold - that of keeping fields, factories 7 and men employed, and disposing of their product, on the one the other, tha.t of rDd.inta..ining prices. A ~nd; and, on slackening of the export trade would nean an increased consumption of goods at home or else a lessened production of them. The constant ass'U!l:lPtion is thd.t the latter of the two alternatives would be the one to be pursued and that accordingly a. reduction of exports from the United States would mean a limitation of prices in this country. Shortened industry, less demand for labor and accordingly falling prices, would be the net result of such a cha.nge in the direction of our business. For this reason roa.n.y business r.1en and financiers today evidently regard the nuintena.nce of our great export balance .3-s prd.Ctically e ssentia.l • the chief modification which they seem to wish to make in it being that of substituting manufactures for a part of the agricultural products which we ~re now shipping a.broa.~. It is for the attainment of this end, and incidentally that of selling these exports at practically the prices now prevailing, that much of tbe current theorizing and most of the practical expedients that are now suggested in prevailing discussion of our international position ed. ~re intend·» This leaves untouched, hqwever, the possible alternative that even 3 /"!C) •x,<.~ X-1560 - 6 - if our export trade should be less active there might be developed an e~ual demand for our goods in domestic trade which would result in em- ploying our L:l.bot< and cc.iptal at practically the same rate." This condition of affairs, it is pointed out, raises the ~uestion how far the country can safely and wisely go in the application of its capital abroad as contrasted with the development of better conditions at home. The view taken on this point is stated as follows: "New industrial opportunities ha.ve not presented themselves with their accustomed speed and only in a comparatively few induatries whose work was largely contributory to the waging of the war can it be said that there has been a. sufficient stimulus to development. evidenced by the high rates of interest ~many This situa.tion is industries stand ready to pay for the obtaining of capital in the present market. Assuming that foreign countries are in position to pay equally high_ rates, the of the use of our available loan funds wo~ld ~uestion be determined by the views entertained by business men and experts concerning the probable earning power of the industries of those countries. A reduction in our export trade would necessitate some readjustment of conditions or relationships such as t~t which followed the armistice, but the d.oubtedly be effected. present exportations are basis which it would be difficult to maintain as tr~nsition could un- un~uestionably ~ upon a pen1unency, being as they are so far above the prewar level." The positive opinion is expressed that the time has come for the Government to withdraw so far as possible from the further extension of aid in post war financing, it being urged that the responsibilities in this important field be taken over by the banks of the country. As to that the Review says: - 7"In this situc,ticn it is not un.Yla.turc;:~.l t'ha.t some important private interests have beF::n ca}.J i.ng i'or Go".rerim1e!lt aid in SkJ?pOrting exchange and in the extensio:n of c:;.·PC.i ts Yor E::lC'I;c.rt buf.insss. Congress has a.lrea.d.y declined to i~c.rr-::as8 t;te :::l(lVI;:;,~s of t'l2<- ~r:~sa.su:r;y J)epa::.'trne:ot with respect to direct loans to 0e ' ;TJ..>d:> to foro)gr. cour-.tr'\es, and it rerruins to be seen how far the c:-edit o£ $l,OOO,C:OO,OCO plc!.08d. wit:':1.in the raa.ch of the War Finance Corpora.tion f'.an be availed of in practice. Whateve~~: '['[Jd,y be deter- mined on this score 1 i t is not desirable that Gove::-nrr.cnt Cl.irection of private industry shouli be continued longer tr..an is a'oqolutely essential. When a. foreign country obtains a.n advance from tr~e Gover:nment of the United States anc<. then spend.s the funds thus allotted it in the purchase of An:erica.n goods forex:porta.·i;ion to its own citizens, there has been practically a joint Government guarantee of either private consumption or private manufacture, or of both, with the results which usua.lly follow from such guarantees. These results ma.y be considered embodied in a. tendency to indis!'!rimina.te consl.l!llption d.nd more or less 1.mecono:wic use of the funds or goods development. whi~h a.re thus s3t a.}}a:rt for the promotion of national A tin.e must inevitably arrive when the emergency is no longer such as to require natior~l borrowing in behalf of private indi- vidua.ls and when to continue this policy of subsidy or public support practically results in the increase of an indebtedness which is passing beyond the power of the debtors to liquid~te. Our present banking organi- zation is capable of safeguarding the country against undue devotion of itb funds to foreign development should such tendencies manifest themselves, and at the aama time of avoiding unwise withholding of support which comes from a lack of vision or a. failure to understand the results of the refusal of present accommodation. ~his, ulti~te of course, still - s- ., X-1560 .. leaves open the question of the precise means by which our bankers and exporters can thus protect problem is now the~selves. Eut it is understood that the fulJ.~r '\Xn(J.e.,.. c0r:.si!:l~ra.tion. the needs of the future ruay c:md reasonable provision for a.ccording:.y be expected. 11 A tendency on the part of the public to decline in thrift is noted, .::md placed emphasis is ~pon the necessity of maintaining the impulse to save, which was developed during the war. The Review of the Month contains a cawment upon the present bcinking situation, the gold import and export situation. and various activities of the Federal Reserve System. An exceptionally thorough and encouraging review of business conditions following detailed reports from the several Federal Reserve Districts, is also furnished. In the general section of the Bulletin, there is further discussion of foreign banking developments, and an elaborate sum1la.I'y of tables rela.ting to comparative price conditions in the United States and foreign countries. An account is also furnished of the Eoard's plan for the development of a "collection index" designed to show in relative terms the state of things as to the collection of outstanding mercantile accounts. Legal decisions, and the Board 1s detailed statistics of business indexes showing the develop· ment of commercial conditions during the month of May, and covering interest rates, and volume of trade are also furnished. price~,
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