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191 Prospect S t r e e t
? / a t e r b u r y 3 3 , Conn.
July
31,1948
Hon. M a r r i n e r S . E c c l e s
F e d e r a l Reserve B o a r d
Washington
Dear M r .
Eccles:
I n o t e y o u r s t a t e m e n t "before t h e S e n a t e B a n k i n g and
Currency Committee t h a t t h e c o u n t r y M i s c e r t a i n l y
g o i n g t o have a b u s t . "
I t i s g r a t i f y i n g t h a t we have one h i g h f i n a n c i a l o f f i c i a l o f t h e N a t i o n who i s w i l l i n g t o sound t h i s
warning.
No decade s i n c e 1873 h a s b e e n w i t h o u t i t s "boom a n d
b u s t n experience u n t i l the present one, 1939-1948,
w h i c h has been ^saved" t h a t c a l a m i t y by e x p e n d i t u r e s
f o r l e n d - l e a s e , w a r i t s e l f , and now b y p o s t - w a r a r m a ment e x p e n d i t u r e s a t home and a b r o a d - i n E u r o p e and
A s i a , and a t o u r b a s e s a l l o v e r t h e w o r l d .
(See B u s i ness A n n a l s C h a r t e n c l o s e d . )
The m a g n i t u d e , i n t e n s i t y and c h a o t i c c h a r a c t e r o f t h i s
i n e v i t a b l e w b u s t H may be i m a g i n e d when we r e a l i z e t h a t ,
i n a d d i t i o n to the usual conditions of previous depressi o n s , we s h a l l have added a n a t i o n a l d e b t o f $ 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 ,
000,000 t o f a c e .
Sincerely
yoursi
Darwin J .
Meserole
From B u s i n e s s A n n a l s
N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f Economic R e s e a r c h -
1873 -
Prosperityj^panic;
recession; Repression,
1926
1901 -
Prosperity
1902 -
Prosperity
1903 -
Prosperity; recession,
1874 - D e p r e s s i o n . \
1875 - D e p r e s s i o n .
(
1876 - D e p r e s s i o n .
'
[rf&fi
1
1904 - M i l d
1877 -
1905 -
Prosperity.
1906 -
Prosperity.
1907 -
Prosperity;
Depression.
1878 - D e p r e s s i o n ;
1879 - R e v i v a l ;
revival7\
/?
/.
prosperity^^^®
1880 - P r o s p e r i t y .
1881 -
d e p r e s s on ^ r e v i v a l .
^
j
I
5
^
r ^ J
recession;
1908 -
depression.
Depression^/
Prosperity.
1909 - R e v i v a l ;
prosperity,
r e c e s s i o n 7 ^ T ^ £ ^ 1910 - Recess:
ion. f
1883 - R e c e s s i o n .
/ //7
1
1911 - M i l d depress . o n . ^ f i ^ i j
1884 - D e p r e s s i o n .
^J
<
/
1912 - R e v i v a l ; pros
perity.
1885 - D e p r e s s i o n ; r e v i v a l . ^
1913 „ p r o s p e r i t y ; \ r e c e s s i o n ,
1882 - P r o s p e r i t y ;
1886 - R e v i v a l .
{ J ^ i K l a ^
1887 - P r o s p e r i t y .
1888 - S l i g h t
.
1 9 1 4
Depression./
1915 - R e v i v a l ;
recession.
J
1 9 1 6
1889 - P r o s p e r i t y .
"
1917 -
1890 - P r o s p e r i t y ;
recessioiL^^^^j.918
1891 - D e p r e s s i o n ;
r e v i v aLl
1892 - P r o s p e r i t y *
(fy)
- /
v/
1893 - R e c e s s i o n ; p a n i c ;
prosperity.
"
>
p r o s p e r i t y ; war * a c t i v i x y .
War
activitj ;
1919 - R e v i v a l ;
prosperity*
1920 - P r o s p e r i t y ; [ r e c e s s i o n ;
depression*/
oppression.
1921 - D e p r e s s i o n ^
( ^
1894 - Deep d e p r e s s i o n .
1895 - D e p r e s s i o n ; r e v i v a l • \
1896 - R e c e s s i o n ;
1898 - R e v i v a l ;
1899 -
pJbsperity
1924 - M i l d d e p r e s s i o n s
revival•
prosperity
1900 - P r o s p e r i t y ;
'
brief
( D i s p e l l i n g the myth of
1922 - R e v i v a l ;
L
1923 - P r o s p e r i t y ; ] r e c e *
revival•
Prosperity.
prosperity."
^
depression-
1897 - D e p r e s s i o n ;
recession.
D. J .
M.)
f / P j ' )/f
IPT'IV
recession.
"Republican
1926-'29, - Hectic p r o s p e r i t y '
and. s p e c u l a t i o n . ;
1 9 3 0 - ' 3 8 ^ - D e p r e s s i o n ; <feep
/p d e p r e s s i o n ; p a n i c ( 1 9 3 3 ) ;
chaos; m i l d r e v i v a l ,
w i t h 10,000,000 s t i l l
i d l e ; depression; acute
depression.
D . J . M.
/(dihrw'i /f do -
august 11, 1948.
Mr* Darwin J* Meserole,
191 Prospect t t r e e t ,
i*aterbury 33, Connecticut.
Dear Mr. Meserole:
I wish t o thank you very much f o r the
commendation i n your l e t t e r of J u l y 31 of my
recent statement before the Senate banking and
Currency Committee and f o r the information
which you included i n your l e t t e r .
bincerely yours,
CM
@FedFRASER