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191 Prospect S t r e e t
? / a t e r b u r y 3 3 , Conn.
July

31,1948

Hon. M a r r i n e r S . E c c l e s
F e d e r a l Reserve B o a r d
Washington
Dear M r .

Eccles:

I n o t e y o u r s t a t e m e n t "before t h e S e n a t e B a n k i n g and
Currency Committee t h a t t h e c o u n t r y M i s c e r t a i n l y
g o i n g t o have a b u s t . "
I t i s g r a t i f y i n g t h a t we have one h i g h f i n a n c i a l o f f i c i a l o f t h e N a t i o n who i s w i l l i n g t o sound t h i s
warning.
No decade s i n c e 1873 h a s b e e n w i t h o u t i t s "boom a n d
b u s t n experience u n t i l the present one, 1939-1948,
w h i c h has been ^saved" t h a t c a l a m i t y by e x p e n d i t u r e s
f o r l e n d - l e a s e , w a r i t s e l f , and now b y p o s t - w a r a r m a ment e x p e n d i t u r e s a t home and a b r o a d - i n E u r o p e and
A s i a , and a t o u r b a s e s a l l o v e r t h e w o r l d .
(See B u s i ness A n n a l s C h a r t e n c l o s e d . )
The m a g n i t u d e , i n t e n s i t y and c h a o t i c c h a r a c t e r o f t h i s
i n e v i t a b l e w b u s t H may be i m a g i n e d when we r e a l i z e t h a t ,
i n a d d i t i o n to the usual conditions of previous depressi o n s , we s h a l l have added a n a t i o n a l d e b t o f $ 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 ,
000,000 t o f a c e .
Sincerely

yoursi

Darwin J .

Meserole

From B u s i n e s s A n n a l s
N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f Economic R e s e a r c h -

1873 -

Prosperityj^panic;
recession; Repression,

1926

1901 -

Prosperity

1902 -

Prosperity

1903 -

Prosperity; recession,

1874 - D e p r e s s i o n . \
1875 - D e p r e s s i o n .

(

1876 - D e p r e s s i o n .

[rf&fi

'

1
1904 - M i l d

d e p r e s s on ^ r e v i v a l .

^
1905 -

Prosperity.

1907 -

Prosperity;

Depression.

1878 - D e p r e s s i o n ;
1879 - R e v i v a l ;

revival7\

/?

/.

prosperity^^^®

1880 - P r o s p e r i t y .
1881 -

Prosperity.

1906 -

1877 -

j

I

5

^

r ^ J

recession;
1908 -

depression.

Depression^/

Prosperity.

1909 - R e v i v a l ;
prosperity,
r e c e s s i o n 7 ^ T ^ £ ^ 1910 - Recess:
ion. f
1883 - R e c e s s i o n .
/ //7
1
1911 - M i l d depress . o n . ^ f i ^ i j
1884 - D e p r e s s i o n .
^J
<
/
1912 - R e v i v a l ; pros
perity.
1885 - D e p r e s s i o n ; r e v i v a l . ^
1913 „ p r o s p e r i t y ; \ r e c e s s i o n ,
1882 - P r o s p e r i t y ;

1886 - R e v i v a l .

{ J ^ i K l a ^

1887 - P r o s p e r i t y .
1888 - S l i g h t

.

1 9 1 4

Depression./

1915 - R e v i v a l ;

recession.

J

1 9 1 6

1889 - P r o s p e r i t y .

"

1917 -

1890 - P r o s p e r i t y ;

recessioiL^^^^j.918

1891 - D e p r e s s i o n ;

r e v i v aLl

1892 - P r o s p e r i t y *

(fy)

- /

v/

1893 - R e c e s s i o n ; p a n i c ;

prosperity.

"

>

p r o s p e r i t y ; war * a c t i v i x y .
War

activitj ;

1919 - R e v i v a l ;

prosperity*

1920 - P r o s p e r i t y ; [ r e c e s s i o n ;
depression*/

oppression.
1921 - D e p r e s s i o n ^

( ^

1894 - Deep d e p r e s s i o n .
1895 - D e p r e s s i o n ; r e v i v a l • \
1896 - R e c e s s i o n ;

1898 - R e v i v a l ;
1899 -

pJbsperity

1924 - M i l d d e p r e s s i o n s

revival•

prosperity

1900 - P r o s p e r i t y ;

'
brief

( D i s p e l l i n g the myth of




1922 - R e v i v a l ;

L

1923 - P r o s p e r i t y ; ] r e c e *

revival•

Prosperity.

prosperity."

^

depression-

1897 - D e p r e s s i o n ;

recession.

D. J .

M.)

f / P j ' )/f
IPT'IV

recession.
"Republican

1926-'29, - Hectic p r o s p e r i t y '
and. s p e c u l a t i o n . ;
1 9 3 0 - ' 3 8 ^ - D e p r e s s i o n ; <feep
/p d e p r e s s i o n ; p a n i c ( 1 9 3 3 ) ;
chaos; m i l d r e v i v a l ,
w i t h 10,000,000 s t i l l
i d l e ; depression; acute
depression.
D . J . M.

/(dihrw'i /f do -




august 11, 1948.

Mr* Darwin J* Meserole,
191 Prospect t t r e e t ,
i*aterbury 33, Connecticut.
Dear Mr. Meserole:
I wish t o thank you very much f o r the
commendation i n your l e t t e r of J u l y 31 of my
recent statement before the Senate banking and
Currency Committee and f o r the information
which you included i n your l e t t e r .
bincerely yours,

CM