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The Papers of Eugene Meyer(mss52019) 117 01 001- Subject File, Federal Reserve Board, F.R. Bank of NY — Correspondence, 1931 11404-R4L. RESh-leVe BOARP pzif X/e. 04.44C OF*Y - Cooe.csmv /93Y • Si3.2°111 9-29 FEDERAL RESERVE BAK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE_April 24 1931 To Governor Harrison SUBJECT: FROM Mr. Snyder _Nad_Prices 111 tbelast year_or mom, MALRelations of Tradep_CTILIdit* _ THEORY. It has been the custom to consider Reserve policy largely in terms of interest rates and, what amounts to nearly the same thing, the volume of Member Bank borrowings. No doubt the cost of money is an important consideration to the merchant borrower, but the total of merchant borrowings has within the last generation sunk to relative unimportance. Roughly, the total of bank credit is now constituted as follows: Member Banks' own investments Loans on securities Loans on real estate, etc. Merchant borrowings 30 per cent 50 10 50 " " It follows from all this that so far as the total volume of bank credit is concerned the disposition of the merchant, and the rate he pays for money, is of little consequence. Moreover, it is a very interesting fact that in the Member Banks of the System "all other," or so-called Commercial Loans, tend in normal times to increase very steadily at close to the normal rate of growth of trade itself, that is, at a little less than 4 per cent per annum. Lpirther, as was clearly shown in the recovery from the depression of 1921, meiEhant loans follow and do not precede the revival of business. Therefore, they cannot be the cause of business revival but are clearly an effect. THE EVIDENCE. What does seem of vital effect, aviii..inflonbel as is now clearly demonstrable, both as to the volume of trade and the price level, is the volume of total bank q:edit, or, if one prefers, of total bank,deggillip And here the cleai.-rAnCi-iemis to be that the increase in this total bank credit precedes somewhat the recovery of trade and very distinctly precedes a trade depression. How closely the price level follows the variations in the volume of this bank credit, without regard to any other factor, is set forth in the accompanying graph. This graph shows simply the variations of the actual increase of bank credit from a rate of 4i per cent per annum, and the variations in our index of what we term the General Price Level, as contrasted with special indexes like that of wholesale prices alone. the It will be seen from this graph how closely / variations in prices followed the variations in credit. The only marked exception was in the latter part of 1922 when, as is well known, the extraordinary rise in the rate of turnover, or so-called "velocity" of bank deposits, due to the prodigious wave of speculation, affected these normal relationships. 1,Lt will be seen how quickly these normal relationships were restored as soon as the speculative mania had passed and the average rate of deposit turnover had returned to the ordinary or usual proportions. • 4 411. MIA'a 3.24 9-29 0- FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE: CORRESPONDENCE DATE April 21, 1931 The Relations of Trade, Credit, To Governor Harrison SUBJECT: FROM Mr. Snyder and Prices in the last year or aore-2 COMODITY PRICES. This relationship between the volume of credit and the general price alone, level cannot, of course, be demonstrated for wholesale commodity prices prices Commodity be. could it that and there never was any reason to suppose in prices of structure broad at wholesale represent but a slender part of the attributed generally is general, and in no wise possess the importance which to them meff by the older economists. Wholesale commodity prices are the widest variables known--that is, the most mercurial types of prices; and in their movements often swing far above There seems no reason to suppose a or far below the general level of prices. very close relationship between these prices and the volume of credit, any more than, say, between cabbages or cottage cheese. /The high variables in the familiar indexes of commodity prices are food and farm prices, and these are un— questionably deeply affected by cops and worldwide market conditions, and by other influences little related to the conditions of business or the volume of credit. THE RECORD FROM 1875. On the other hand, we have now clear trAcl"law, questkanable evidence, covering a period of more than half a century, that there is a very close and practically invariable relationship between this general price level and the volume of credit; and that, in turn, the volume of trade and of employment, that is to say, the "condition of business," is also closely related thereto. LAn expansion of credit has accompanied, and usually preceded, every sustained recovery of business from depression of which we have clear record in the last hnlf century, and every business depression has been heralded by a rise in interest rates which, in turn, always brings about a check sooner or later, and a decrease in the volume of trade. to credit expansion e j This relationship has likewise been thoroughly established. demonstrated t‘ tt if 4. 0144400,144 Next, it may be /that this expansion ofbank cre-ali:0,in the last quarter of a century" at least, WA not been due to the increase in merchant borrowings, and distinctly has not been the result of initiative from the side of business, This was as markedly true of the business re— but from the banks themselves. covery following the crisis and depression of 1907—'08 as it has been since the establishment of the Federal Reserve. M., THE CASE OF 1908. The crisis of 1907 involved as sharp a banking and as anything experienced since the Civil War, and a sharp business panic currency The prostration of railroad traffic was, if anything, more general depression. Yet the remarkable fact is that within five or six than at the present time. months of the panic,business was vigorously on the road to recovery, and this This business recovery was recovery continued for well over a year thereafter. credit, as is revealed by bank distinctly preceded by a remarkable expansion of MOW • • M 9-29 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE_April 21, 1931 To Governor_Harriso SUBJECT: The FROM Mr. Snyder and Prices in the last year or more--5 Relationa_of Trade, Credits__ the returns for National Banks, then a more important part of the banking system than at the present time. And this expansion was not due to merchant borrowIt was due wholly to the initiative of the banks themselves and resulted ing. from a heavy return flow of currency from circulation and the hoarding which had followed the panic of 1907. Likewise the fall in commodity prices averaged only about 6 or 7 per cent. In other words, were about the same as the fall in commodity prices in the four or five months following the market crisis in October of 129. THE CASE OF 1921. The crisis of leal involved the sharpest contraction of bank credit and the most violent fall in commodity prices,..4arei-lat-Cur-getaleetNerstae.aevell since the Civil War, up to that time. It resulted from or was preceded by the highest commercial interest rates which had been known since the panic of 1875. The fall in prices continued to the and of 1921, about a year and eight months from the peak point reached in May of 1020. But from the fall of 1920 there was the beginning of a very heavy inflow of gold, and in the fall of 1921 the Reserve Banks began heavy purchases of securities. Likewise throughout 1021 there was a large return flow of currency from circulation, and these three forces led to a reduction of 'ember Bank borrowings from a peak of 2800 millions to a little over 1000 millions at the end of 1921. All this led to a drastic fall in interest rates and bank deposits began to increase by the end of the year. By the .spring of 19'42, or within eix months of this remarkable change in the loPnking and credit situation, business was, on our broad index of trade, back to normal. This latter was not true of the pig iron type of indexes which useelly show a lag of from three to six months, at least in periods of business recovery. AND IN 1924. Almost identically the same thing in 1924. The business recession continued through the first half of the year and up to July. But at the beginninc of the year the Federal rxserve Banks had again been baying heavily of securities, end by the middle of the year there was a marked increase in the total of bank credit. Llts again was not due to merchant borrowings but, exactly as in 1908 and in 1921, heavy purchases of securities by the :ember commercial Again, within six months of the time this banks. Banks and other credit expansion was well under way, business was likewise well on the road to recovery. AGAIN IN 1927. The experience of 1927 was a curious one. In the earlier part of that year business was in good volume and all of the business indexes stood at a high level, though there had been some small decline in commodity prices. But towards the end of the year, distinct signs of business recession, so much so that by December Senator Wagner, in Congress, asserted that there were three million men out of work in this country. .• qp.‘ ige e vigC. 3.0m 9-29 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE AprIl 21, 19:51 To Governor Harrison SUBJECT:The FROM Mr* Snyder and Prices in the 1aat_year_or_sore---4 Relatimumf_Trada,_Grodit.____ As is well known, for quite other reasons than to arrest such a business decline the Federal Reserve Banks, early in the summer of that year, began a renewed purchase of securities, amounting to about a quarter of a billion dollars. Again a corresponding increase in commercial bank credit, and again within six months therefrom a sharp revival in business. FOUR CONSECUTIVE INSTANCES. Here then were four consecutive instances within a period of about twenty years, which revealed this striktng parallelism between the expansion of bank credit and the recovery of trade. In not one of these instances did the expansion of bank credit proceed from the side of the merchant borrower, but from the initiative of banks themselves utilizing the funds they could not loan in an ordinary business way, for the purchase of securities. is striking that the instance of 1908, before the establishment of the Federal Reserve System, was as vivid as any of the three cases which followed, and could not, therefore, be in any Ivey related to Federal Reserve policy or the existence of the Federal Reserve System. THE NEGATIVE INSTANCE. These four consecutive instances seem to show a positive relationship. It remained for the present depression to indicate the negative evidence. It is now a year and a half since the crisis of 1929, and commodity prices have been fallinz almost continuously through the last twenty months. There are no signs as yet to indicate that they have reached bottom. The decline has been as sharp and continued in the last three weeks or three months as in the preceding twelve months or more. Business also has shown, co far, only the faintest signs of recovery. Parallel to this we have had since the fall of 1928 no net expansion of commercial bank credit, Wring all Umber Banks of the System as evidence. On the contrary, some contraction of credit within the last eighteen months. The difficulty in most econothic investigations, and especially in this particular field, is the slender number of instances available for study. But here, at least, are five consecutive instances, four positive and one negative, which seem to establish pretty clearly that the condition of business recovery from a depression is an expansion of bank credit; and further, that this expansion of credit is meow initiated by merchant borrowings from banks. AQ't COMPARISON OF FOUR MAJOR DEPRESSIONS 4. MARCH 1893 TO AUGUST 1895 MINIMUM JUNE 1894 , PERCE*r4TA3E -OEvIATIONS + 20 + 0 NORMAL 0 28.6% OfCL/NE — I0 — 20 —30 4- MONTHS /4 MON rhfs -r MAY 1507 TO JULY 1909 MINIMUM JUNE 1908 + ao + ^ 0 NORMAL 0 29.7% CL/He — I 0 — 20 — 30 MONTH /3 MONTHS 1 MARCH 1920 TO OCTOBER 1922 MINIMUM JULY 1921 + 20 2. + .1111a--•-•• 7 2. to NORMAL 0 33.9% DeCL/NE — I 0 — 20 4 . — 30 /5 MONTHS MO/V TH3 JUNE 1929 TO MINIMUM JANUARY I93I + 20 f 19 3 + 0 NORMAL 0 — I 0 PECL/NE — 20 — 30 — 40 /9 MONTH.? (Arch /ndex Estimated) (55/9 -/5-41 -y MISCe 3.2 GOM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEM/YORK June 25, 1951. OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To DATE__ lir. Burgess SUBJECT:___ F RomX_e Ft rough CHTLEIS FOREIGN DEBT PAMENTS Chile is one of the few countries of South America where a change of government by revolution during the depression of the past eighteen to twenty months, has not occurred. In comparison with other South American countries, Chile has a government which is basically more sound, a national administration which is more efficient and better managed, (under the control of a strong and able dictator, President Carlos lbaries) and a population composed predominantly of more stable and superior racial elements. Therefore, Chile has not been subject to the irreatible pressure for revolution that has obtained in practically every other South American country. In addition, it has a more diversified national economy than neighboring countries so that the well-being of the population is not so utterly dependent upon the export trade as is often imagined by foreign observers. Finally, the financial organisation and equipment of the national government is far superior to that of the other leading countries, notably Argentina and Brasil. Nevertheless, there have taken place in Chile during the past year a marked contraction in business activity and sustained declines in prices of export and domestic commodities. The strati: measures which the government has had to adopt to balance income and outgo, including cuts in the salaries of government mnployees, the levying of new taxes and raising of rates on old taxes, have been a strain on the people. Official statistics show that there has been little if any unemployment. Two incipemt plots of political 'outs" to overthrow the Government have been discovered and the organisers, exiled or imprisoned. It in understood, however, that the political situation is now more clouded than it has been thus far during the depression. Although Chile has, for the reasons given in the first paragraph, withstood the strain politically and financially far better than other South American countries, her export trade has declined heavily as a result of the depression in world markets. The usual, large favorable balance of trade so vital a factor in the maintenance of equilibrium in the Chilean balance of international payments, has disappeared and as sufficient new loans have not been forthcoming, commercial banks and the Government have gradually leaned more and more on the resources of the Central Benk of Chile as the source of foreign exchange to make payments abroad. In its latest monthly bulletin of Business Conditions, the Central Bank describes the existing business situation, in part as follows: 'The development of our foreign trade continues unsatisfactory. Exports as well as imports increased in Marchl imports predominating with a surplus of 2 miliien pesos. There was a favorable trade balance of 8,8 million pesos for the first three months of the year, which however is too low a figure to appreciably assist in bringing about the equilibrium of our balance of payments. The stringency in the monetary market has become more accentuated. The volume of bank credits has continued to drop in March., and in a larger proportion than in the previous three months. Advances in current accounts is the item most affected this time. The circulating medium augmented in the first half of March owing to an issue of notes against gold purchased by the Banco Central. During the second half of the month, however, the circulating medium again dropped, due to the continued unfavorable balance of payments, the equilibrium of which, in the present prevailing circumstances, can only be obtained by means of sales of gold by the Banco Central.' MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE To Dr. Burgess FR0I! June 25, 1951. SUBJECT: .2 F, Lamb CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAIMLITS The outlook for the continued payment of services by Chile during this coming half year can best be studied by examining her balance of international payments, the present status of her foreign trade and the credit and financial position of the Government and of the banks. BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS . Last year in August the results of study on Chile's balance of payments prepared for the National Statistics Department of Chile by Alejandro Bunge, the Argentine economist, were published. This vas the first time that such an investi— gation had been carried out in Chile. Thc report vas 'riven out with the proviso that the analysis included only principal items entering into the international balance, the period covered being the firrt six months of 1950. The items as Mom in the monthly bulletin of the Banco Central, follow: TADLr t. v-EsrmATE OF THE IMPORTANT ACCOPNTS IN TEE CIIILFAN BALANCE OF PAMIlliTS* First Semester 1950 (In millions of dollars) Acqounts Debits Yoreiaalrade 78.8 &ports Imports Goverzynemt Loans 57.4 Foreign Loans and Advances (net) Foreign Advances cancelled (i.e. paid) 10.2 Municipal and other loans XAtereet and Dividepgs Service on external, direct fiscal debt Service on external debt municipalities, railroads and other entities Service on Foreigm Debt of the Mortgage Bank Interest (and dividends) on foreign capital invested in Chile Payments to employees and institutions abroad Paymmnts of Fiecal Agent of Govt. (mostly naval equipment) 2.0 Consular fees 1.8 Tourists and immigrants Nitrate industry propaganda 4.8 New foreign capital investments Balance owed by Commercial Banks to correspondents abroad 14 Lose in gold reserves of Banco Central Totals 165.5 5iredit9 92.5 13.0 14.8 2.0 5.5 55.6 1.5 5.4 1.0 2.4 1.5 170.8 *Amounts given in Chilean pesos (par st 12.17 cents); converted at average rate of exchange for pesos. MISC. 3.2 GOM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Dr. Burgess FROM al DATE ;WO 25, 1931. SUBJECT: 3 F. Lamb CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS The compilers made one important observation, namely, that it had been found necessary to ad.inat the official figures of foreign trade due to the fact that the two principal items in the export trade, sodium nitrate and copper, (shipments of which comprise about SO% of total exports) were overvalued for the purpose of the study, while imports were somelehat undervalued. Without entering into an analysis of why the official valuea were not suitable, a comparison of the two sets of valuations is essential as it is more than likely that the 'same discrepancies exist in the current figures of foreign trade and similar allowances must be made: First Semester 3.9§0 (In millions of dollars) Official valuations Bunge's adjusted figures Difference in amount Percent Bungee figures below (-) above (*) official figures Exports Imports 85.7 70.6 88.0 92.5 - 6.9 + 4.5 Unfavorable Balance - 2.5 - 13.7 Or - 0% 5.1% Although the debits and credits in Table I do not *prove", the figures being incomplete, the outstanding feature of their balance of payments, and one which is common to all South American countries, is Clears positive equilibrium in Chile's balance of international payments is possible only if the dead weight (or fixed) '.mfavorable invisible items are covered by two favorable items, an excess of commodity exports and imports of new capital both of which are variables. YORK= TRADE In 1950, the official value of Chile's total merchandise exports was approximately 15% below the average for the three previous years while imports were 8% above the average for the same period. As a result of the extraordinary decline in exports (which was mainly due to a drop of 40 in the price of copper during the year and heavily curtailed nitrate shipments) without a corresponding contraction in imports which continued almost constant throughout the year, the usual and essential large favorable balance of trade was replaced by a sizable excess of imports. Actually, the unfavorable balance of trade was considerably larger than shown by the official figures. Whereas the official figures showed an unfavorable balance of 8.5 million dollars, it is believed that the deficiency as far as settling international balances are concerned, may be safely placed much higher. Using the sane percentages as those shown above, the unfavorable balance would be 22 millions. Exports in 1950 were valued at the lowest figure since 1922 while imports were larger than for any other year during the past decade with the exception of 1929: • MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Dr . Burgess DATE June 25, 191. SUBJECT: , -4.' F Romig, F. ZOO CELLE'S FOLUGN DEBT PAYMENTS TABLE I; FOREIGN TRADE (In zillions of dollars, =averted at average exchange rates) Balance:Fav. (+) Imwrts qgfavorable (-) !gida 1920 1921 1922 1925 1924 1925 1926 1927 1926 1929 1950 Sources 214.0 125.2 110.2 184.5 199.5 225.6 196.3 201.7 258.7 275.5 180.2 125.1 110.1 78.8 115.0 120.3 147.7 156.2 129.5 145.8 193.1 168.7 + 88.9 + 15.1 + 31.4 + 71.3 + 79.0 + 77.9 + 42.1 + 72.2 + 92.9 + 82.2 - 8.3 Yearbook Department of Commerce, 19501 Monthly Bulletin, Banco Central de Chile for March, 1951. During the first quarter of this year, the latest period for which figures are available, no commensurable improvement occurred in the foreign trade situation. Prices of the principal export commodities were very weak and exports of nitrate are believed to have diminished further (no official figures have been given out since October of last year) while foreign demand for copper continued stagnant with shipments correspondingly light. Imports during the first quarter were valued at 21% less than during the corresponding period of last year but were still at a such higher level than would appear to be desirable. Late in March, import duties on a list of about fifty important items were advanced substantially, the increases amounting to as much as 250% of the previous rates in many instances. This measure presumably will discourage imports to a considerable extent, without upsetting the Government's calculations of revenue. TABLE III FOREIGN TRADE IN THE FIRST THREE !ONUS OF 1953, (In millions of dollars) norti First Quarter 1950 First Quarter 1931 48.1 38.5 Import 47.4 37.3 Favorable Balance (t) + .7 + 1.0 POSITION OF BUDGET Since the adoption in 1926 of a modern budget system under a budget law which was drawn up by an American (Kemmerer) Commission of Financial Advisers, the national finances of Chile have been administered much more efficiently than was I MISC. 3.2 COM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK June 25, 1D31. OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE Dr. Burgess DATE_ To SUBJECT. 5— E. F. Lamb FROM MILE!S IDTIMGIN.1 DEBT PAYMEIITS previously the case. Financial results in the year 1927, the first under the new lax, showed a small surplus uheroao the period 1919 to 1926 showed a cumulative deficit of total actual expenditures over revenues of 161 million pesos ($19,300,000). In 1928 and 1029 substantial surpluses were shown, offsetting with a small margin to spare the accumulated deficits. Notwithstanding the business depression and it inevitable effects upon revenues, the year is said to have closed with the budget approximately in balance. Revised estimates of Ordinary Expenditures and Expenditures for last year, and the corresponding estimates for 1931 as passed by Congress, follows TABLE IV NA 0 B OF Urn ORDINARY WENDI,TURES JIX950 and 1951. JAM (Revised Estimates) Ordinary Revenues Ordinary apendituree Anticipated Deficit Pesos Dollare (Amounts in Millions 1,151.7 .8 140.5 140.6 .1 Ordinary Revenues 1,040.0 126.6 Ordinary Expenditare3 1.039.6 126.6 Surplus .4 * D epartment of C-ommerce cable, December 1930. During 1950, the revenues from nitrate did not fall below the budgetted fiaure which vas placed at 170 million pzaos (20,700,000). Tradition has it that the nitrate industry has always paid the major part of the costs of Government in Chile and indeed, during the SU year period 1880 to 1930, 43% of the average costs were pz.id by the industry. Bowyer, as a more modern system of taxation has been gradually developed, le6s and less dependence has been placed on revenue from this source. The direot contribution of the nitrate industry to the Government in 1930 at the rate of approximately 41Z.00 per ton of nitrate shipped, was only 18% of the total estimated ordinary revenues. In the budget for 1931, passed late last year, with estimated ordinary expenditures and revenues approximately in balance at $126,500,000, the nitrate tax does not appear at all. Under the rationalization plan for the nitrate industry of Chile, passed by Congress creating the Compania Salitre de Chile (Coach) with an authorised capital of $375,000,000, and embracing more than 94% of the productive capacity of the industry, the government receives in exchange for its loss of revenue from the nitrate tut mentioned above and as compensation for handing over valuable concessions to the combine, half of the capital stock in the form of 15,000,000 fully paid common shares of 100 pesos each, equal to about $185,000,000. r • MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE Dr. Burgess To FROM Z. P. rata DATE June 25 1931. SUBJECT: - 6- CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAIIIIENTS For the first three years under the new plan, "Cosach" guarantees minima returns to the Governnent of .22,500,000 in 1931, #20,000,000 in 1932 and $17,500,000 in 1933. The payment for this year which is in the fora of cash, dollars and pc-funds sterling, has been provided for by recent financing. The principal groups of itens in the revenue estimate for 1931 compare with the original budget of revenue for 1930 as under* TABLE A. National properties B. National services C. Direct and indirect taxes: Import duties Income taxes E/port tax on nitrate Other revenues Total direct and indirect taxes D. Various revenues Total Al B, Op and D Surplus from previous year General Total 1931 1930 Ito* (a) 52,950 80,550 225,410 $5,990 500,000 123,500 274.900 325,000 210,000 170,000 292,500 997,500 58,650, 1,169,650 (b) 698,460 44740 (b) 1,039,610 i , 45,0Q9 1,214,650 1,039,610 (a) The quota of 180,000,000 pesos ($22,500,000) which the National Treasury received from the Compania de Salitre de Chile in 1931. is included in this item. (b) A discrepancy will be noted in the summation of the items. Source: From Annual Report of Minister of Finance of Chile, as reprinted by Department of Commerce, Special Circular #3441 (January, 1931) It is observed that import duties account for less than one third of total revenues, a considerable lover ratio than in most South American countries, the remainder being distributed among various sources, including income taxes, national properties, "national services' and miscellaneous taxes. t MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To DATE Jun Dr. Burgess FROM!. F. Lamb 252 1931. SUBJECT:__ — 7 _ . GUILEIS FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS PUBLIC DEBT 'The debt is divided into direct and indirect obligations. The former is that contracted directly by the National government and the service of which is a charge against the ordinary revenues and is included in the budget. Thr: indirect debt is composed of debts of cities, railroads, mortgage bafts, etc., which are guaranteed by the National government, but the service of which is attended to by the entity directly interested and from their own income.** The following official figures showing the public debt of Chile up to the latest date for which figures are available do not include the floating debt. One short term obligation, however, has been treated by the Government as though it were a funded loan: an Josue of five year notes sold to Kuhn, Loeb, which are a part of the external direct debt. The principal is $10,000,000 and the maturity date is July, 1931. TABLE VI FUNDED NATIONAL DEBT (In millions of Chilean Pesos) 1950 1929 1928 1927 1913 ( as of December 51) Direct External Internal 2,482.6 2,289.3 2,138.5 1,758.2 322.9 256.9 104.6 457.8 Indirect (Guaranteed) External Internal Grand Total 1,183.6 1,068.5 962.3( 899.5 64.3 61.9( 49.9j 4,174.1 3,745.0 5,419.6 2,762.1 In millions of Dollars 500 450 410 1,556.5 51.7 4MP 1,406.2 536 169 From the above, it is seeu that the Chilean funded debt, internal and external, increased between the end of 1927 and the beginning of 1931, $164,000,000 (about $55,000,000 per annum), the percentage increase for the period being no less than 51%. Tho total sum set aside for service charges in the 1951 Budget was $35,500,000 against $31,600,000 in 1950. Although the national debt hem groin rapidly,total estimated service charges in 1951 were equal to only 28% of total estimated revenues or expenditures, which is not a high ratio for a South American Country. *Banco Central de Chile, 'Monthly Bulletin' (January, 1930, Page 8) MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE June 25, 1931 Dr. Burgess To SUBJECT: $ CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS FROM E. F. Lamb The external funded, direct debt as of December 51, 1.950 was divided up by currencies as followss Pounds sterling Dollars it 29,682,112 $140,894,615 Pr.84,005,000 Swiss Francs The total floating external debt, estimated as carefully as possible with the aid of information obtained frost various private sources, is believed to be about $50,000,000 at the present time, including the Kuhn Loeb notes mentioned above. The table which follows lists all short term indebtedness incurred abroad by the Chilean Government in 1950. Apparently the notes and advances maturing in the first quarter have all been reneged. TId3LE VII SHORT TERM pomp= xxcupRED II 1940 Wawa Discplait Maturities For. (thousands National City Bank National City Bank National City Bank Rothschild & Sons Rothschild! & Sons Anglo Fr. Bkg. Corp. & Others Caja Rao. de !Morro* Jan. 216 1951 $ 5,000 2 0. 6% Zan. 28, 1931 10,000 Jan. 15, 1951 2,000 6%-1,t Jan. 27, 1951 2,000 111-1/0% Nov. 27, 1931 1,000 5 5/4-1b.a. S200,000), 400 8/51 £200,000) 1st Qtr.'51 0 Commission * 11,000,000 deposited with Rothschild & Sons In dollars Pesos (thousands) 41,250 12,500 16,500 80,00041 40,000 18,000 ________ 501,250 56,000 To the above should be added, the Kuhn Loeb notes due next month ($10,000,000) and a further advance of $8,000,000 which Chile is believed to have obtained from the sane firm, giving as previously mentioned a grand total of approximately $50,000,000. Chile has done no long term financing this year. CURRENT FINANCIAL POSITION OF conamiT Lacking detailed first-hand information, it is difficult to say definitely how closely this year's actual revenues and expenditures are coincidimg with the budgetted estimates. During the first quarter, receipts from imports duties, according to the official returns amounted to 70.1 million pesos or *lightly less than one fourth of f • MISC. 3.2 OM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK DATE 1!C 25 1931. OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE Dr• Burgess To FROM -• SUBJECT: - 9- Lamb CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT MIMS the figure in the budget for the entire year. A comparison of certain other official figures, indicating the current fiscal movement during the first quarter of 1929, 1930 and 1951, is given below% TAW VIII CURRENTAECEIPTS BY GOVERNMENT First Quarter 1931 1950 142. of pesos) millions (In Receipts, total Expenses, total 292.6* 209.0 , 290.0* 272.4 204.7 198.4 Customs Revenues 62.2 99.2 7.2, 51.1 70.1 15.2 159.6 136.4 11.9 19.8 From Exports Fi.ort Imports Other Receipts Total Direct Taxes Income taxes Other taxes 66.5 45.4 Total from 1928. over *Including surplus of 77.6 millions carried **Including 54.0 millions carried over from 1929. Source: Nonthly Bulletins of Banco Central de Chile* Anticipating a drop in income, the Government has planned a reduction of 115 million pesos in this year's expenditures, representing marked economies in administrative costs, which include decreases in the pay of government employees and officials, ranging from 3% to 25%, and also reductions in personnel. Regarding revenues, it appears that certain classes are running somewhat behind the budgetted amounts although slow collections may be partly to blame. 'Mile the internal situatinn of the government has been affected by the general depression, it has been handled firmly and does not suggest instability. It seems fairly certain, on the whole that the financial position of the Government is sound even though current revenues may be running somewhat behind current expenditures at the present time. The extraordinary budget, which embraces the authorised credits and the destination of the proceeds in connection with an ambitious long-term program of public works construction, has been so adjusted that the country will not be obliged to seek new loans abroad for this purpose in the current year. .14 MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK . OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To DATE_ Dr. Burgess 16 FROM__ 11% Lamb June 25,A,931. SUBJECT. - 10 - CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS Nevertheless, the Government faces two serious problems, first, the disposition of the floating debt: $10,000,000 in notes due next month; approaching maturities of obligations already renewed at least once; second, securing foreign exchange to meet service charges on external debt. EXCHANGE SITUATION Insofar as the settlement of international accounts is concerned, exports during the first quarter of 1951 must have failed to cover imports by a considerable margin because, although the official returns show a small excess of merchandise exports over imports, it has been pointed out in an earlier paragraph that habitually exports are overvalued and imports, undervalued. However, assuming that the international payments on account of foreign trade, are in balance and that no demand exists for foreign exchange for the transfers of interest and dividends on foreign private capital, funds of tourists immigrants, diplomats etc., Chile must nevertheless secure foreign exchange in 1931 at least to the extent of $40,000,000 in payment of service charges on external borrowings of the national government and political subdivisions. However, the amount required may well reach a much greater sum, depending upon whether or not certain short term obligations must be paid cdff at maturity. It is not known definitely what arrangements the Government has made so far this year with regard to fresh credits. However, the Government did receive a payment from the Cosach, of $22,500,000 in dollars and pounds sterling in April. During last year, the °deficiency" of exchange was met largely by the Central Bank whose bills sold during the year exceeded bought bills by 117.4 million pesos and also by the commercial banks which at the end of the year owed foreign correspondents 21.5 million pesos. In freely supplying all demand for foreign exchange in 1950 as it did, the Central Bank reduced its reserves about $14,500,000 from some $55,500,000 to $59,200,000. Notes in circulation were not retired in the same proportion, the shrinkage amounting to the equivalent of but $5,500,000. The reserve ratio of gold and sight deposits abroad, to note and deposit liabilities dropped from 59.1% at the beginning of the year to 52.8% at the end of December. The minimum legal ratio is 50%, although, of course, it can be permitted to fall much lower, a payment to the Government on the deficiency as a penalty, being provided for in the law. (If time deposits abroad, $15,500,000, at the latter date were included in the reserves, the ratio 'would be 86.5%). With the balance of international accounts still unfavorable, the foreign exchange situation this year has remained as in 1950: a restricted supply of foreign funds, derived from payments to Chile's credit, in relation to a more or less normal demand for such funds. Speculation by banks and flight of capital do not seem to be important factors. The burden of supplying buyers with foreign exchange has continued to fall on the Central Bank whose position on the latest date for which figures are available,follows: (See Page 11) AP. P MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Dr. Burgess FROM L1. Lamb DATE Altle 25, 1931. SUBJECT:. CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS TABLE IX RESERVES OF BANCO CENTRAL Last Weekly itatement in Legal Reserve Time Deposits Total Reserve (In Millions) EAL 39-1. June June Jan. Apr. May 1929 1950 1951 1931 1951 (15th) Pesos 222.4 138.2 78.5 84.7 57.7 278.6 252.2 225.5 211.6 181.9 Pesos 501.0 390,4 501.8 296.3 259.6 P-oLut-rs 62.1 47.5 36.7 56.1 29.2 Meanwhile, the amount of notes in circulation has not changed appreciably during the year. Between the last of April end mid-May, the Bank lost almost $7,000,000 in foreign exchange and the resdrve ratio fell about 10% to 55.6%. The Bank has hitherto maintained the ratio by converting its secondary reserves into dollars and pounds sterling, as required. As these reserves had been reduced to $6,900,000 by the middle of last month, it is quite possible that the Central Bank has already exhauste its ordinary resources for supporting foreign exchange. While the commercial bmks of Chile have aprently not suffered from a withdrawal of their credit lines abroad, they have nevertheless not freely used their foreign balances 7hich have risen considerably during the past twelve months. TABLE X FOREIGN EXCHANGE POSITION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS laa 2/28 4/14 8/27 11/5 Own Due to foreign Foreign Balances Correspondent (millions of pesos)(millions ofpesos) Balance (In Millions) Pesos Dollars 182.1 238.8 142.5 162.9 110.0 81.2 53.2 59.0 + 72.1 +157.6 + 89.3 + 105.9 + + -1+ 8.6 18.9 10.7 12.3 258.5 237.6 157.8 127.5 120.7 90.7 70.4 64.9 55.7 67.5 (Continued on Page 12) + . 167.8 + 167.2 + 72.9 + 71.8 + 53.1 + + + + 20.1 20.1 8.6 8.6 6.4 1928 3/2 5/5 9/1 10/51 12 /31 MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRFSPONDENCE DA-rE_Inne_24_1931. D. Burgess To FROM SUBJECT: - 12 - Aria_lfrifarab CHILE'S FOREIGN Dar_piammams_ (Continued) TABLE X FOREIGN EXCHANGE POSITION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS Own Due to foreign Foreign Balances Correspondents (millions of pesos) (millions of pesos) Balance (In Millions) Po5 Dollars 1929 3/12 5/2 6/30 9/5 11/14 10/31 159.4 141.8 119.1 168.6 137.5 66.9 85.9 85.4 82.5 170.7 151.1 116.5 + + + - 75.4 56.4 56.7 2.1 13.6 494 + + + - 8.8 6.8 4.4 .5 1.6 5.9 74.5 70.3 67.4 95.2 111.2 101.3 95.7 122.1 - 56.7 51.0 28.5 28.9 - 4.4 3.7 5.4 3.5 112.5 105.2 110.8 116.1 138.8 136.5 154.6 117.7 - 20.1* - 51.5 - 23.8 - 1.6 1030 Jan. Apr. July Oct. 1951 Jan. Feb. Mare Apr. - 2.4 - 3.8 - 2.9 - .2 * Corrected CONCLUSION Due to the heavy drain on the gold reserves of the Central Bank as a result of the abnormal situation prevafling in the country's balance of international payments, the reserve ratio has declined close to the 1ga1 minimum of 50%. The note circulation had already reached by the arid of last year the lowest level in the Bank's five and one half years of existence. The volume of currency could undoubtedly be reduced still further, since business activity as measured by check clearings, is running about one third below last year for the corresponding period. Nevertheless, the Central Bank is fast approaching the end of its ordinary resources for supplying the demand for foreign funds. Unless fresh short tern credits • .7.. 3.2 60111 7-30 ( 3.1IS FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE Dr. Burge09 To 25, 1931. SUBJECT._ — 15 — FROM E. F. Lamb CHILE'S FOREIGN DEBT PAYMENTS can be secured by the government or unless relief can be obtained abroad through some other method, such as a central bank credit, it appears that the Bank will be unable to prevent the ultimate depreciation of the peso. It is believed, however, that the Bank can continue for some time to lend its support to the Government by supplying it with the means for making debt service payments. Gold reserves can still be reduced to the extent of say $10,000,000 (sufficient to cover at least half the demands of the Government for the second half of this year) by decreasing the note circulation some 25,000,000 pesos (now around 500 million) the reserve ratio falling to 45%. Chile takes pride in its debt record of 100 years without a default, and although the Central Bank has often maintained that its raison dletre is to maintain the international value of the peso, there seems little question but what the Bank will decide to concentrate its efforts on the transfer of service payments, as the only thing to do under the circumstances. Thus, for the next few months, it is likely that Chile will not find it impossible to continue paying interest and sinking fund charges on the foreign debt. However, if world business conditions do not improve materially within a few months with corresponding benefits to Chile's export trade, or if credits cannot be secured abroad, it is fairly clear that the difficulties of continuing to remit will be so great as to force the Government to suspend payments temporarily. Lr •••". IF MISC. 3.2 GOM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK # OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To riles DATE SUBJECT: nine 29 1931. The Chilean Nitrate Industry FRomIA_r_v__LaMb Chile has, in its narthern desert or "pampa" country, the world's only known deposits of nitrate of soda.* They extend for a distance of several hundred miles in an irregular belt five to forty miles wide. The nitrate-bearing layers vary in thickness from a few inches to many feet, carry in their richest form as much as 40% of nitrate, and maybe either on the surface or below it down to a depth of 25 feet or more. The deposits being worked are for the most part rich in nitrate, the "caliche," as the superior type of ore is called, being found about 3 feet below the overburden. There are no definite statistics on the quantity of ni- trate remaining in the ground. A large part of the unproved ground remains in the hands of the government which, under the rationalization plan drawn up in 1930, agrees to hand over large tracts to the industry. /titer a hundred years of exploita- tion of the nitrate fields, the evidence is that the quantity of nitrate still untouched is sufficient for generations to come. RISE OF INDUSTRY A comparatively small part of the nitrate fields was originally in Chilean territory but in the early years of exploitation, Chile received most of the benefits, as the nitrate was shipped from Chilean ports. After the "Bancos Associados" of Peru gained control of the industry, they began to consign all shipments in vessels which brought in fuel as ballast, causing a loss in trade to Valparaiso. This development was the principal cause of the war of the Pacific with Peru and Bolivia. !Nitrate and sodium combined; occurs in natural state mixed pounds, principally chloride of sodium or common salt. The time is as fertilizer since nitrogen, most important single by crops, when in form of sodium nitrate, occurs in a state for restoring this element in soil and nourishing plants. After its with various other comprincipal use in peace element taken from soil in which readily available • MISC. 3.2 GOM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Tiles DATE sUBJ ECT. Ain* 29, 1951• _The_Ohtleall_ntrattindUSin FROM_ E. F. Lamb 2 victory in 1883, Chile took as indemnity from Bolivia, its strip of seacoest and from Peru, a portion of its Southern coast. This territory added to what Chile previously owned to thE south, gave it the entire nitrate district. About 1,000 tons of nitrate is reported to have been tPken out of the region in 1809. By 1830, the production was 9,000 tons and from that date up to 1900 the rate of increase was such that output approximately doubled every ten years. Between 3.900 and 1913, production increased approximately 1005, reaching 2,772,000 tons during the latter year. During the Lax, annual output was irregular and lower, but between 1921 and 1928 the trend was upward and in 1929 production reached a new all time high of 3,238,000 tons.* SPECULATIVE ASPECTS A significant feature of the development has been the irregularity in production due to the nature of the industry. It has been highly profitable to certain companies and disastrous to others. At one time 125 "oficinas" or plants were going concerns but between 60 and 70 of them now account for practically the entire production which annually varies between 2 and 3 million tons, valued at 100 to 125 million dollars. It has been an erratic industry attended with many risks as well as possibilities of high profits. Although the manufacturing proc- ceases are simple in principle, the nitrate business in its modern aspects demands for successful operation over a period of years, great technical skill in all phases of production, management and marketing as well as unusual foresight in the development of new processes and methods in all stages from the handling of the raw material *The pure nitrogen content is about 15% of the sodium nitrate as prepared by the Chilean industry. • MISC. 3.2 COM 7-30 • FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Files FROM 11. 7- Lamb DATE June 29, 1931. SUBJECT-AnUL Chilean Nitrate Tyubletry 3 down to the final sale abroad. Naturally, there have been widely varying degrees of success among the companies depending upon the many variable factors involved, particularly management. In recent years a great of the less ably-managed comenies have abandoned operations and only thc.. stronger conpanies now remain, five of which produce 85% to 90% of the nitrate. The world-wide depression in agriculture in 1930 accentuated a condition which had been the cause of growing concern among the producers of Chilean or natural nitrate for several years: the increasing production of nitrogen by synthetic methods and as by-products in the manufLcture of coke and city ges. "By-product nitrogen" production had been expanding rapidly long before the ;iorld War while the synthetic product was developed by Germany and produced on a large scale during the War as an ebsential material in explosive mantfacture. Due to the abnormally large demand for nitrate during War-time and in the two years immediately following it, the Chilean industry was not adversely effected by manufactured nitrates until the period of readjustment began in subsequent years. synthetic nitrate manufacture continued to expand. By-product nitrate and especially Large plants devoted to the manu- facture of ammonium nitrate by the extrction of nitrogen from the atmosphere, the so-called synthetic nitrogen, were erected in other European countries. The leading companies which came into the field, in addition to the I. G. Parbenindustrie of Germany, are the Imperial Chemical Industries, Ltd. of Emgland, the Comptoir de l'Azote of France and the Montecatini of Italy. The remarkable increase in synthetic and by-product nitrogen, both of which are adapted to the same uses as the Chilean product, is shown in the following table of estimated annual world consumption of ' MISC. 3.2 GOM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Files FROM K. FA___Lamb DATE :tine 29, 1951, NiVate SUBJECT: Industry 4 pure nitrogen for the five years ended Tune 50, 1930: TAAL.] I ESTIMATED CONSUMPTION OF FORMS OF NITRATE (reduced to equivalent of pure nitrogen) (Thousand tons) By-Product Synthetic Chilean Nitrate 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 425 1,175 363 405 1,075 415 390 825 390 310 735 271 300 585 323 1,963 1,895 1,605 1,316 1,208 While Chilean nitrate appears to command a special market to some extent (since even in Germany, Chilean nitrate of soda conaumed there between 1926/27 and 1929/30 increased from 16,500 tons to approximately 120,000 tons), the Chilean industry was at a great disadvantage in the market as a whole, since it could not satisfactorily meet the prices of European producers. RATIONALIZATION AT HOME AND ABROAD It appeared inevitable that as the high cost producers by a considerable margin, the Chilean companies would eventually be forced from the field. However, the entire competitive aspect of the nitrate business changed last year when it was demonstrated that a more economical process for recovering nitrate than thc one in use had been developed, and could be employed on a commercial scale. With the new process as the basic factor in their favor, the leaders in the industry undertook a fundamental reorganization, affecting all aspects of the business. lAthin the Chilean 111SAD. 3.2 6011 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE DATE SUBJECT: FROM nine liltAka The Chilean Nitrate Industry B. F. Lamb 5 industry itself, the plans* called for a merger of all companies, into a single corporation "Compania de Salitre de Chile" (Cosach), with the Government sharing as a holder of half of the total capital stock; the centralization of operati ons at five huge plants, invrlving the scrapping of all old plants numbering from 60 to 70 and the introduction of new handling and routing methods in the fields and "oficinas." Externally, the Chilean producers entered into a cartel, the membership of which included all producing countries except the United States and Japan, output, shipments and prices being fixed by agreement, in accordance with world market conditions and the capacity of the producers. TM. GUGGENHEIM PROCESS The competitive situation described could not have been met by the "old, ' Chilean industry, since even at the established price of approximately $40.00 per ton, most companies lost money under the Shanks process which was the one in use. It was apparent years ago to the Guggenheim Brothers who have had spectac ular success in mining low grade copper ores on an immense scale in Chile, that the salvation of the Chilean industry lay in evolving a more economical process for the recovery of nitrate. Under the leadership of E. A. Cappelen Smith, an exhaust ive investigation of the problem was undertaken and after almost a decade of painstaking work in the laboratory and experimental plants, a "cool" process for treatin g "caliche" was developed. Briefly, the theory of the Guggenheim process is that sodi- um nitrate is more readily soluble in hot water than cold whereas sodium chloride with *The new company has been formed and the rationalization plan is in process of being carried out, as two of the new plants, "Maria Elena" and "Pedro Valdvie " are understood to have been brought into production. MISC. 3.2 601‘,1 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEWYORK • OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE TO Files FROM Z. F. Lamb DATE 7=0 SIOAL 1951* The Chileanaltrate Industry UBJECT S: 6 which it is found in greatest abundance is only equally soluble in hot water or cold and is much lees soluble if that water already contains sodium nitrate. Thus when a saturated solution of nitrate and salt is drawn off at atmospheric temperature and then cooled to freezing, it drops the nitrate of soda which is then treated physically by several simple processes to put it in a form suitable for packing. The Shanks process is a "hot" process and consists of treatment of the crushed rock by counter current leaching. Due to the fact that sodium nitrate's solubility increases with rising temperature at a much higher rate than does that of sodium chloride, a solution in the presence of "caliche" at the higher temperature, will precipitate sodium chloride and take up additional nitrate. nitrate solution is then drawn off, clarified and allowed to cool. The rich As the tempera- ture falls, nitrate crystallizes out, the other salts remaining in solution. The excess solution is then drawn off and the liquor sent back for re-use. The principal features of the Guggenhetm process are: (1) The ability to extract nitrate efficiently from rock of a lover grade than considered economical for use in the Shanks process. (2) The conservation of all heat wastes. (3) The employment of about 1/4 of the men necessary for similar production under the old process. Were specifically the advantages claimed for the Guggenhetm over the Shanks process (which is used today altered only in details from the form in which it was introduced by Humberstone 45 years ago) are: (1) It is possible to introduce (a) mechanical methods for handling material and manufacturing (b) on a larger scale than heretofore; • MISC. 3.2 603d 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Files FROM Z• DATE SUBJECT Tune 29,; 1931. The Chilean Nitrate Industry F. Lamb 7 (2) the available reserves of nitrate are greatly enlarged; (3) the output per unit of fuel consumed is materially increased and (4) a better quality product is produced. The Guggenheim interests began commercial operations in Chile on an important scale with the acquisition of nitrate deposits at Coya Norte in the north near Tocapillo and later, with the purchase of the Anglo-Chilean Compan7's nitrate grounds at Coya Sur. On these properties the factory "Maria Elena," the largest plant in Chile, was put into operation in 1926 at a capital outlay to the AngloChilean Consolidated Nitrate Corp., of $55,000,000 which was said to have been 20 millions more than the Guggenheims had originally planned for this plant, the first of the five central units to be built under the rationalization plan. COSTS UNDER GUGGENHEIM PROCESS The Guggenheim interests have published no figures of costs for the "Maria Elena" plant but it is said in some quarters that the unit production cost Is about 40cS less than under the Shanks process. However, an analysis which was approved by the Chilean nitrate authorities and published in the magazine "Fortune" last Lutumn, is less definite on the matter of costs, saying that "savings are still a little difficult to determine after three years but it is fair to say that they are not less than $6.00 and may be as much as $9.00 per ton. drawn up in the "Fortune" analysis mentioned as follows: Comparative costs were MISC. 3.2 COM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To DATE Tune 29, 1931. Files FROMRA_ SUBJECT: ZA Lamb 8 Shanks Process (Per short ton) At Plant Bags, freight, lighterage, etc. Ocean Freight Gurgenheim Process (Per short ton) 012 it 4 6 5 5 5 tiff 115C To the actual producers costs under the Shanks process was added a lump sum of 012.00 per ton, representing a flat charge before rebate in the form of an export tex paid by the companies to the National Government. Since the earlydays of the industry, the Government had found in the proceeds of this levy, its major source of rcvenue, paying during the fifty year period from 1880 to 1930, according to "Fortune," 43%, on the average, of the costs of Government. In 1929 when condi- tions were depressed, the industry paid over 23% of its costs. The tax of 0.2.00 per ton added to the total primary costs, gave a total cost to producers of approximately 035.00 per ton. Under the rationalization program, the Government agreed to abolish this tax.* ORGANIZATION UNDER RATIONALIZATION PLAN In May of last year, a law was passed by the Chilean Congress, sanctioning the concentration of the various nitrate companies into one huge corporation, a revolutionary move which was strenuously opposed by certain Chilean public. elements of the The nemotirtions with the Government by the nitrate interests (with which the Guggenheim interests have become prominently associated) might not have had a successful culmination but for the deplorable situation of the *It is understood, however, that a InaliMUM charge of $7.30 per ton of nitrate exports has been established to cover the service on Cosach's bonds (034,000,000). P 1 MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Tiles FROM E. F. Lamb DATE Ame 29, 1931. SUBJECT: The Chilean_Nitratei_luda-stry 9 industry under the old conditions and the personal popularity of President Ibanez. Later it was announced that plans were under way for the formation of the Chile Nitrate Company ("Compania Salitre de Chile") or "Cosach" with a capital of $375,000,000 (U.S.) to take in more than 94% of the productive capacity of the Chilean industry. Formed primarily to knit the industry into a single unit which can benefit to the fullest extent from centralized management and operation and which can meet foreign competition, the company naturally acquires ownership of the Guggenheim process, the use of which will gradually be extended to all its subsidiaries and plants. In compensation far the loss of revenue which would occur through the elimination of the export tax, the Government receives 15,000,000 Series A Shares of 100 pesos per value each or $185,000,000 (U.S.), representing half the total capitalization. According to most recent information available, the company guarantees minimum returns to the Government for those years beginning with $22,500,000 this year and then 020,000,000 in 1932 and $17,500,000 in 1933. There- after, the Government is limited to dividends on its stock and the proceeds from a 8% income tax. Another feature of the plan as mentioned previously, is the provision that all of the Government owned nitrate lands are made available to the company. Four of the twelve members on the Board of Directors are appointed by the President of the Republic, the position of the Government b_ing that of a partner in the enterprise. FINANCING THE MERGER Several months ago a Chilean Government Commission came to the United States to arrange jointly with the Guggenheim interests a plan for financing "Cosach" which it was reported would try to secure $100,000,000 in "new" capital. La a result of 1 MISC. 3.2 COM 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Piles DATE ;line 29, 1931. SUBJECT. The Chilean Nitrate Industry FROM_.F. Lamb 10 the negotietions, however, it has been announced within the past few days by Pablo Ramirez, the head of the Commission, that a proposal has been received for an issue of t45,000,000 in bonds of which .-,34,000,000 will be offered in New York and London.* of th These bonds, according to Sr. Ramirez, will not bear the guarantee Chilean Government, as previously rumored. OBSTLCLES TO CHILEAN INDUSTRY The rationalization plan (which has been characterized as the most thorough yet devised for any industry) undoubtedly offers a solution to many of the most pressing problems facing the industry. However, it is still in an ex- perimental stage with many difficulties yet to be solved. The most dangerous of these is competition from the United States. In 1927 this country's production** of synthetic nitrate was confined to laboratory quantities. Since that time the Hopewel3 plant of the Allied Chemical and Dye Corporation, one of the largest chemical companies in the world, has been constructed and is now in partial production. If full production is reached by 192, .the output of this company would be sufficient to fill approximately half the demand of this market. *"The Cosach financing was floated in Europe in the amount of ;.34,000,000 of bonds, but great success did not attend the sale of these securities, most of which were reported to have been left in the hands of London banks." "Herald Tribune," Nay 12, 1931. **"Last year (1930) American production rerdstered a further gain to 140,000 tons and the estimate for 1931 calls for 300,000,"”1. of C." February 21, 1931. • MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To File* FROM I* DATE rune 29,_1931. SUBJECT: The Chilean Nitrate Industry. F. Lamb 11 TABLE II WORTS OF NITRATE INTO II. S. FROM CHILE 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1929 (11 months) ” ) 1930 ( " (Tons) (Value) 1,112,000 014,000 749,000 1,033,000 930,000 864,889 532,382 02,531,000 42,781,000 30,132,000 36,901,000 34,913,000 32,618,431 20,119,203 If the Allied Chemical and Dye Corporation, should be successful in entirely displacing the Chilean product, Chile would lose its largest single ctstomer or about 1/3 of it3market. Aside from the fact that United States laws do not permit price agreements, the American Company is opposed to entering into combinations of this kind. It would appear that a struggle for control of the United States market between this potentially huge domestic producer and the "Cosach" accompanied by severe price cutting, might well ensue as a result of this situation. Another country that did not enter into the price-fixing conferences last summer was Japan where production of fixed nitrate is small but growing. An a result of the conference mentioned in which "Cosach" announced that it could deliver nitrate of soda at a profit to meet any synthetic competition, the production of each country in the group, was drastically reduced, the decreases ranging from 10% for France to 50c4 in the case of England while prices were fixed for each country. This severe imposition was effected as an emergency measure and doubt may well be expressed as to how long European countries will submit to their MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To Meg FROM E. F. Laub DATE Tune 29, 1931. SUBJECT: The Chilean Nitrate Industry. 12 respective quotas, as plants met be operated at far below capacity. Another unfavorable factor in the outlook is that "Cosach" will begin operations under the handicap of a huge stock of surplus natural nitrate which has accumulated since 1928, largely in Chile despite the efforts of the Nitrate Producers Association to control the situation. market remained unsatisfactory in 1930. The statistical position of the During 1928 and 1929 average monthly production was about 265,000 tons, shipments from Chile averaged 237,000 and consumption, 216,000, causing a steady rise in unsold stocks both at home and abroad. On January 31, 1930 they stood at 2,732,000 tons which is considerably larger than consumption during the year 1929 when a record quantity of nitrate was, nevertheless, consumed. Seasonal increases in sales during the early part of L30, reduced stocks slightly but between July and October with demand poor due to the depression, production was maintained, varying from 180,000 to 203,000 tone whereas 130,000 tons was the maximum average output necessary to prevent further accumulation of nitrate. It appears, therefore, that at the beginning of this year, the industry is burdened with an inventory practically as large as that of the preceding January. FUTURE OF CHILEAN NITRATE The ultimate recovery of the industry will occur when the long time trend in demand has caught up with that of production. Ninety per cent of the pure nitrogen consumed in the last 6 years has been for agricultural purposes and the trend in consumption in the future probably depends largely upon the demands of this industry. An indication of the possibilities in the ultimate expansion of ( MISC. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK A OF NEW YORK OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To r)ATE AMID 29, 1931. SuBJEc-r_The galean Nitrate Industry Files FROM 13 the market is indicated by estimated figures prepared by a New 'York investment house,* showing the impoverishment of the soil by crops: "World consumption of pure nitrogen for agricultural purposes has been Increasing yearly, but, nevertheless, the agricultural industry is consuming only a small fraction of the amount it should. It has been estimated by competent authorities that the annual removal of (pure) nitrogen from the soil of the United States alone is more than 3,800,000 metric tons, and that only about 375,000 metric tons of this nitrogen is being replaced in all forms of nitrogen-bearing fertilizers, resulting in a net loss of approximately 3,400,000 metric tons, equivalent to about 22,000,000 tons of Chilean Nitrate of Soda, or nine times the present torld consumption of this product. The European countries use much more nitrogen in fertilizer per acre than does the United States. As the soil of this country becomes more impoverished, consumption of nitrogen for agricultural purposes will continue to increase at a much greater rate than in the past." The annual rate of increase, in world consumption has been estimated by the Chilean Government, in its report accompanying the project of law mentioned above for rationalizing the industry, at T% which is considerably less than the rate calculated by the Imperial Chemical Industries, Ltd. in its annual report of last year. During the first year under the international agreement, Chile can ship out the equivalent of approximately 2,500,000 tons of nitrate of soda which is approximately 100,000 tons more than the average exports from 1926 to 1929. If world consumption increases at the percentage given, exports of nitrate *The Kissel Kinnicutt Review, Kissel Kinnicutt and Co., September 2, 1930. .40 mtsc. 3.2 60M 7-30 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK f OFFICE CORRESPONDENCE To MOOS DATE Xune 29, 1031. SUBJECT:_ The Chilean Nitrate Industry FROM E. 1. Lamb 14 from Chile could be doubled within 10 years, reaching 5,000,000 tons by the end of this period. (Memorandum for Files dated February 20, 1931 with notati ons to bring up to 'date) 0e 2y/0-04( ft% • July 9, 1931. COITFIDE:,TL1L Dear Governor rcDougal: In view of the complicated and serious European situation in which we have been invited to participate from time to time through the extension of credits to various European central banks, it has occurred to me that you may be interested in a resume' of the situation as we see it, especially in so far as it relates to those credits. The most important of these is, of course, the credit which was granted to the Reichsbank on June 26, to mature July 16. The total amount of that credit was for 1.00,000,000 and the par- ticipation of the Federal reserve banks was '7:25,000,000. of The Bank ngland, the Bank of France and the Bank for International Settlements each participated in an eque1 amount. For your infor- mation, the table below shows the dates upon which the Reichsbank drew upon its credit and the share provided by the Federal Reserve banks: Total June 27 29 30 July 1 2 6 4,000,000 8,000,000 16,000,000 20,000,000 28,000,000 16,000,000 8,OCC,CC0 100,000,000 Federal Share 1,000,000 2,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 7,000,000 4,000,000 2,CCO,000 25,000,000 Shortly after the President announced his debt proposal, withdrawals from the Reidiasbank, which up until then had been 2. Governor McDougal July 9, 1931. proceeding with increasing momentum, were temporaril:/ checked but owing to delays in negotiations in Paris and the misapprehension arisinE from those delays, withdrawals in the Reichsbank recommenced and were proceedinE at a rapid rate up to the latter part of last week and the early part of this week. Having used the last of the central bank credit on July G and facing a statement date on July 7 with a depleted reserve, the Reichsbank throueh the Golddiskontbank, which it in effect owns and controls, called upon the private bankers to provide 50,000,000 under a credit granted to the Golddiskontbank a number of years ago. The whole of this amount has now been utilized and withdrawals from the Peichsbank yesterday Lnd the day before continued in fairly substantial volume. Governor 17:5rmen indicated to me on the telephone yesterday, after his talk with Dr. Luther, President of the Reichsbank, that in the face of these conditions the Reichsbank would likely not only ask for a renewal of the present credit, but miht ask for an additional central bank creditvery large amount. Dr. Luther leaves London today and goes to Faris this afternoon on his way to the meetine of the Bank for Internation 1 Settlements at l'asle on llonday. Fo formal request for such a credit has been received, but for your information I am enclosing a copy of a confidential cable which I sent to Governor 1:orman last niElit after my talk with him on the telephone. This cable fairly well reflects my present views in thc rqatter, and I understand from another talk I have had with Governor Lorman this morning since he received this cable that he is in complete agreement with me with respect to it. In spite of all the steps which have been taken externally to aid the Reichsbank, and in s5ite of whatever efforts they therselves 3. Governor :cDougal July 9, 1931. might have made, its position remains fairly serious today, but I feel most earnestly that we should not be asked to participate in another credit at this time or, indeed, until we have definite evidence that the Reichsbank has taken more stringent steps than it has yet taken to limit or control the export of capital by German nationals. I cannot but believe that at the present time this is more a cause of their difficulties than the withdrawal of foreign funds. As to the position in Austria where we have, as you know, participated in two credits to the Austrian National Bank, I understand that the situation has improved since President Hoover's debt plan was announced. The first credit has been used in full to the extent of about .:;14,000,000, of which our share was 1.,083,000. The second credit., which was likewise for about !)14,000,000 and in which weiarticipated for 4,150,000, has not been used although a private bank credit is for 07,000,000 was procured and/now in use and is subject to liquidation out of the proceeds of the second central bank credit. Following the difficulties in Vienna which started as you will remember with the Credit ,Amstalt reorganization, the trouble spread to Uungary, and the National Dank of Hungary required accommodation from abroad. In the first instance the Bank for International Settlements went to the assistance of the National Bank of Hungary. This was followed by a central bank credit of 010,000,000 in which we participated to the extent of :2,000,000. Subsequently a second central bank credit was arranged including the Bank for International Settlements, ourselves and other banks of issue, the total amount of this credit being about c':,10,000,000, 4 . Governor 7,7cDouga1. July 9, 1931. of which the Bank for International ; - ettlements, the Bank of England and we took 3,000,000 each. Both of these credits have now been used to the null extent, our share of f3,000,000 under the second credit having been paid into the account of the Dank for International Settlements yesterday for the purchase of bills from the National Bank of Hungary. The Bank for International Settlements has recently sent a man to Budapest to keep in touch with the situation there and their representative has been accompanied by a Frenchman, Mr. R. Charron, who is a well known economist with special of knowledge/and experience in central Europe. Our understanding is that he As an excellent man for the job, and the funds drawn by the National Bank of Hungary under this second credit are being used only with his approval. The position in all three of these countries is more or less a comuton problem and, while we had hoped that a year's postponement of intergovernmental debts would do muell to help these and other countries out of their present difficulties, it is no doubt true that the delays, and doubts caused by the delays, in the final negotiations of the debt agreement, together with some uncertainty as to what may be decided by the experts at their meeting in London next week, has minimized to some extent the good effects of the original announcement. 'de are hopeful, however, that conditions may suddenly right themselves as soon as all the doubts and confusion incident to all the discussions and negotiations that have been going on shall have vanished. In my own rin, it is now most important for each of these countries to exercise the most rigorous self-control, for 5. Governor I,:cDougal. July 9, 1931. it is becominF increasingly clear that their present difficulties are more largely a flipht from their own currencies by their own nationals, than a withdrawal by foreign creditors. In any event, we are being kept fairly closely informed and I shfill be glad to krep you posted from time to time of developments as we see them. In the meantime, please do not hesitate to ask any questions which you may have in mind. Faithfully yours, George L. Harrison, Governor .71.. I. B. 7JcDougal, Governor, Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago, Ill. Enc. CONFIDENTIAL Copy of cable sent to Bank of England, July 8, 1931. Confidential for Norman ONE At various times during the past week you and I have discussed on the telephone the possibility that the Reichsbank might ask (a) for a renewal of the present central bank credit and/or (b) for an enlargement of that credit TWO But I was surprised and concerned to learn this afternoon over the telephone of the huge amount which after talking with Luther you now feel may be necessary to hold the situation THREE1hile you know, I am sympathetic with taking any reasonable steps that may really be necessary to avoid a collapse in Germany and perhaps throughout central Europe as well and while furthermore I agree with the general principle that if another credit is to be raised for this purpose it should be adequate rather than inadequate, nevertheless I should reiterate what I told you on the telephone: that it would be difficult if not impossible for us to consider taking any steps looking toward further credit accommodation here unless we have some most definite evidence that the Reichsbank has itself first done everything within its power effectively to protect its own position FOUR I am confident that the principal New York banks who are creditors of Germany have maintained their lines at about the amounts outstanding at the time of the President's announcement. In some cases indeed I know -2 D that those lines have been actually increased in that interval. On the whole the evidence available here indicates pretty clearly that much of the loss of foreign exchange by the Reichsbank dpring recent weeks must be due to a flight of Genman capital which it seems to me might well have been limited or restricted through a firmer credit policy of the FIVE eichsbank RationinE of credit is of course a drastic and disagreeable procedure but it has been applied effectively in Germany in the past without proving to be fatd. On the contrary in each other instance it has been most helpful in repatriating Gennan capital and in checkinE further outflows of funds and I cannot see wh y it might not be equally effective at this time if applied with equal force SIX So on the whole I personally do not feel free at this time to advocate any further credits here until I am convinced that the Reichsbank has done all that it has in its power to do to protect its own situation and this I think should be done immediately SEVEN In other nords: Is it not zi mistake for any of us seriously to be talkinE about extending further credits which at best would be difficult to raise until we know tIlat they have first taken firm corrective steps on their own part and until we have had an opportunity to see their effect EIGHT I realize the importance of the time element but the fact that the statement day comes on ne;:t Tuesday does not really seem controllin[ because after all in this • . • -3- great emergency is there any reason why they should not show a deficiency in their prolortion with a consequent increase in the bank rate as provided by the bank law NINE Indeed this together with strict rationinc may well turn the tide not only by checking a further flight from the reichsmark but by drawing back exported capital. least it seems reasonable that they should make the effort hard as it may be before rightfully e.vecting, the cooperation of the central banks or private banks in maintaining present credits or extending further credits which would only facilitate a continued flight of German capital TM' I shall however continue to think alon( the lines we discussed on the telephone today and call you tomorrow before you leave London. You are perfectly free to show this to Luther who I am sure will realize full well the friendly and helpful spirit in which it is sent HARRISON CENTRAL HANOVER BANK AND TRUST COMPANY COPY July 23, 1931. George L. Harrison, Esq., Governor, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, N. Y. My dear Governor: At my suggestion Mr. Whittlesey spent some time this afternoon discussing with Mr. Kenzel a plan which we think might go a long way toward restoring the confidence of Germany's creditors by amplifying and giving permanence to the assistance afforded by the so-called gentlemen's agreement to maintain credits in Germany by American banks. The essence of this plan is that it gives Germany an opportunity to help itself out of its difficulties. Without going into all the details of the plan, which frankly we have not attempted to work out at this stage, it consists in providing what we believe would be an acceptable substitute not only for such particular outstanding credits as individual American banks might not wish to renew, but a credit which by reason of its greater security and selfliquidating features might prove more attractive than many of the acceptance credits which banks are now granting and although I do not wish to seem optimistic, it might be the means of providing additional credit for Germany if this in the future should prove to be necessary or advisable. The plan should be equally adaptable to London and other financial centers as well as to New York. We would propose that through existing or if necessary by a supplementary decree of the German Reich that part of German export business which will be required to carry out the plan be mobilized through the Deutsche Golddiskontbank in order to serve as a basis for a revolving eligible acceptance credit to the Golddiskontbank. Under the proposed decree German exporters would be obligated to hand over to the Golddiskontbank, or to some other agency to be appointed as trustee which we will discuss further on, drafts arising from their export shipments, .101. George L. Harrison, Esq., Governor July 23, 1931. or should this not be in every case practical, legal assignment of the proceeds arising from their sales abroad. The German exporter would also furnish to the Golddiskontbank or to the trustee a direct obligation to be held for the pro rata benefit of the participants in the credit. We would suggest that to provide greater security and more adequate control some agency of an independent nature be provided to handle the export documents and the receipts therefrom and the obligations of the users of the credit in Germany. It occurs to us that the Bank for International Settlements might be prepared to act in this capacity, appointing subagents in Germany and other countries to handle documents and funds received in liquidation of export shipments. To achieve its purpose to the fullest extent this credit should preferably not be limited to a three months' period and we believe that owing to its self-liquidating character there might not be the same objection to confirming this credit for a fixed period of time as there would be to the ordinary acceptance credit to individual banks. However, we foresee the necessity of tying up some way the maturity of this credit with the expiration of the so-called gentlemen's agreement. We feel that banks should be under no compulsion to participate in this credit. If the banks that are parties to the gentlemen's agreement would agree to accept a participation in this credit to the extent that they wished to recall any of the credits that they have at present on their books, or to the extent that borrowers in Germany could not supply them with new eligible bills for acceptance, the credit would be effectively underwritten and its purpose achieved. Pardon me if I have been somewhat sketchy in setting out our ideas, but it seemed essential that I outline the principal points so that you could, if you thought it worth while, put the idea before the Bank for International Settlements. 6 Cordially yours, (Signed) GEORGE W. DAVISON FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK July 30, 1931. Dear Governor Meyer: You will be interested in a cable which we have received from Dr. Luther, President of the Reichsban14 today, copy of which is enclosed. We have sent copies of this cable to the New York banks and bankers and to the Governors of the Dther Federal reserve banks with the suggestion that they would probably wish to communicate its contents to those banks in their districts which transact business with Germany or are interested in the subject of German credits. Faithfully yours, J. E. CRANE Deputy Governor Honorable Eugene Meyer, Governor, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D. C. COPY JULY 30, 1931 Berlin, Germany Federal Reserve for Governor Harrison Now York The committee composed of German bankers and Reichsbank has tonight completed its suggested proporsals to foreign bankers for carrying out the recommendations of the London conference stop , Here follows the text of these proposals of German bankers committee to Germanys foreign banking creditors stop With a view to giving effect to the proposal of the London conference of July 1931 that foreign banking crodits to Germany be continued without further reduction the committee of the German banks proposes to the foreign bank creditors and is prepared to recommend to all their German debtors if accepted by the foreign bank creditors the following conditions for the continuance of such credits pending a more permanent solution of the German short-term indebtedness problem the period now contemplated being at least six months stop The committee of the German banks proposes that: each foreign bank creditor shall agree to maintain visavis his German credit and deposit takers (including foreign branches subsidiaries and affiliations of German banking institutions and commercial and industrial firms and companies) called the "German Credit Takers" all credit lines deposits and credit balanaces (whether in foreign currencies or in Reichsmark) as availed of or held on July 13th 1931 stop As far as credit commitments have been arranged for a certain period of time for which a commitment charge has been and is being paid the credit commitment will remain in force stop In consideration of the foregoing agreement the foreign bank creditors shall have the right to demand from the German credit takers compliance with the following conditions it being understood that in no event shall the position of the -2foreign bank creditor in connection with any security he may have under arrangements existing prior to the present agreement with the German credit taker be changed by his expressing such demand except by the terms of this agreement stop 1. As far as acceptance credits are running for account of German banirs and bankers: A) The German banks shall obtain from their clients legally valid acceptances or promissory notes (Eigene Wechsel) in negotiable form with corresponding amounts currencies and maturities and shall transfer such acceptances and/Or promissory notes (Eigene Wechsel) for the security of the respective foreign bank creditor by holding them on deposit endorsed without recourse for the account of and as collateral for the respective It is agreed that foreign bank creditor stop nothing in this clause impairs the primary liability of the German bank or banker stop B) The German banks shall place all encashments in Reichsmark which cannot immediately be applied to the reduction of existing claims of_the foreign barOr creditor concerned to a separate account in the name of such foreign bank creditorto be released against the remittance to the foreign bank creditors of corresponding amounts in foreign exchange as and when foreign exchange becomes available stop C) The German credit takers will without having to undergo a reduction of the total credit held at their disposal cover in due time at maturity the acceptance either by cash payment or out of the proceeds of new drafts (Replacement drafts) stop D) Each foreign bank creditor shall be entitled to demand that the Deutsche Golddiskontbank shall take over individual acceptance credits or parts thereof in an amount equalling 10 per cent of the total amount of his acceptance credits which have been granted for account of German bftnks and bankers stop 2. In respect of cash advances time deposits and credit balances due to foreign bank creditors by German banks and bankers each foreign bank creditor may demand that the Deutsche Golddiskintbank shall take over individual credits or parts thereof in an amount equaling 5 per cent of the total amount of his credits stop 3. In the case of acceptance credits and cash advances -3- given directly without the guarantee of a German bank by a foreign bank creditor to German commercial and industrial firms and companies each foreign bank creditor may demand the guarantee of the Deutsche Golddiskontbank for individual credits or parts thereof in an amount equaling 10 per cent of the total amount of his acceptance credits and cash advances together with a further 10 per cent in respect of all credits given directly to such commercial and industrial firms and companies which are not obliged to publish balance sheets and to all these commercial and indistrial firms and companies which publish balance sheets but owing to their size do not belong to the guarantee syndicate for the Deutsche Golddiskontbank stop But in no case shall the total amount for which the foreign bank creditor may demand the guarantee of the Deutsche Golddiskontbank be less than an amount equaling 15 per cent of the total amount of his credits under clause 3 stop In so far as acceptance credits for the account of German commercial and industrial firms and companies are involved the provisions of Clause 1 (E) above shall apply stop 4. In the event that the Deutsche Goldiskontbank within the limits set out above (in paragraphs 1, 2 and 3) declines to take over or guarantee a particular claim the foreign bank creditor concerned shall no longer be bound to the agreement to maintain such credit but shall be free to ask for actual cash repayment thereof when due stop 5. If and when the Deutsche Golddiskontbank takes over or guarantees credits time deposits or credit balances the Deutsche Golddiskontbank wishes it to be understood that it will probably require an arrangement under which it can only be called upon to repay such credits time deposits and credit balances in three equal yearly instalments unless a more favorable arrangement is arrived at for Germany repayments stop 6. The expenses incidental to the preparation and execution of this agreement and of the carrying into effect of these proposals will be for the account of the German debtors and will be dealt with by the committee of the German banks stop The Committee of the German banks is fully aware that it is of the greatest importance and of primary interest to the foreign bank creditors accepting this proposal that the Danatbank and the J. F. Schroeder Bank be reopened that the bills endorsed by the said institutions be again made marketable and that the stability of the German banking position must be maintained intact stop In this connection it may be mentioned that the "Akzept und Garantiebank A. G." (Acceptance and Guaranty Bank) has been founded with a capital of 200,000,000 reichamarks subscribed for by the Government and leading banks and bankers stop It is understood that this arrangement will only come into force if the principal foreign bank creditors of Germany will join in this agreement stop Berlin July 29th 1931* (See footnote) *Footnote It is proposed that upon agreement letters embodying and giving effect on their part to these proposals shall be sent by each German banking institution and credit taker to its foreign banking correspondents Berlin July 29th 1931 stop Agreed by the committee of the German banks to be presented Memorandum as an annex to their proposals to foreign bank creditors to the central bank governors of the countries respectively concerned and for the benefit of the bankers committees in those countries stop Pending the conpletion and carrying into effect of agreements in connection with the proposals offered by the committee of the German banks the latter undertakes to see that by the necessary means: decree or otherwise: There shall be no distrimination on the part of German banks bankers commercial and industrial firms and companies (i. e. German debtors) in payments of or ,n obligations as between foreign bank creditors anywhere stop b) That there shall be no discrimination on the part of German banks bankers commercial and industrial firms and companies (i. e. German debtors) in the offering or the giving of collateral or other security in respect of foreign bank creditors Berlin July 29th 1931 1. e., -5- I would request you kindly acquaint your bankers with our proposals and and request their acquiescence stop I undertake in cooperation/in agreement with the committee of the German banks and in conjunction with the commercial and industrial firms and companies of Germany that measures will be taken where necessary to bring acceptance credits as soon and as far as possible into conformity with the rules of eligibility in your country. Reichsbank President Luther I• 1.F., lir.-:•*4 York, A meeting cf the 1-tecutive Committee of the TIL RE OF Mr47 YORE: was held at its office at 3 o9clock p. m. thi3 day, • PRESENT: mr. Young, Deputy Chairman, Messrs. Mitchell, Rayburn, Stephens, Warner, Woolley and Burgese, Messrs. Gilbert, Kenzel, Logan,Rounds and . Sailer, Deputy Governors, Mr. Roelse, Manager, Reports Department. One hundred and fifty-two applications for advances. 2n1 counts, numbered 8013 to 8164 aggregating .20,113,000, which had been approved by the officers of the bank since the opening of business september 10, 1931, were presented and schedules listing the aforesaid Prplications and those enumerated below were distributed among those ;resent at the meeting. Mr.Rounds reviewed the applications. ing 'eports were submitted: The fcliow- the money market report, a summary of eL.rninr assets acwing large borrowers, etc., and statements showing the banks continuously in debt one year or more, the banks borrowing in excess of capital and surplus and the borrowings of banks on our special list. Whereupon it was duly VOTED to ratify and approve the action of the officers in mak- ing the above described advances and rediscounts. Eight applications for advances and rediscounts, numbered 1331? to 13324 aggregating $1,341,600, which had been approved by the Buffalo Branch Committee and by the officers of the bank, Were presented. 4here- upon it was duly VOTED to ratify and approve the action of the Buffalo Branch Committee in making the above described advances and rediscounts. t;11.7:toir Mr. Rounds reported upon banking situation!! which have been receiving the special attention of the officers of this bank° Mr. Burgess informed the committee that the special Treasury Certificate of Indebtedness to be issued to this bank in connecticn with the Treasury9s September 15 financing would be for approximately 0100,000,000 and would bear a rate of 1/2 of lciL He said that arrangements bad been made to participate approximately $90,000,000 of this certificate among New York City member banks. mr. Burgess reported that the officers had agreed to purollace and 00.0 hold temporarily approximately•Wre@eleftof Federal Intermediate Credit Bank debentures, being issued today% consisting chiefly of six months maturities, bearing interest at 2 3/4%. There was a discussion of the effect of these purchases on the money market and as to whether or not this bank should offset such purchases by sales of an equivalent amount of Government securities. It was understood that this matter would again be discussed Lt the meeting of the board of directors on Thursday, at which the Governor would be present. Mr. Kenzel summarized conditions in the bill market. W. Sproul reported the receipt of & cable No. 543, from the Bank for International Settlements, setting forth a change in the proposed terms of renewal of the central bapk credits to the Hungarian National Bank which mature on September 18, 1931. mr. Mitchell informed the directors of the receipt of a request on behalf of the Swedish Government for arrangement by the National City Bank of e $50,000,000 credit in th s market. Be said that despite the hi --c4A-L9C standing of Sweden, h. that thec=could be an_ !Alt • Awith/7 out central bank participation, and he asked the directors for an expression of their views concerning the matter. There was a discussion of this question A C 0P Y TRANSLATION FINAL cm Cable to Governor Harrison of Federal Reserve Bank, New York Personal Basle, Nov. 20, 1931 654 The Presdat cable is sent in several motions. This is section one*) Rave just officially received following memorandum in German which constitutes the official text of the German Government's request for convocation of the Special Advisory Comrlittee provided for by exnerts plan: "The German Government requests that the Bank for International Settlements in Basle convoke the L;necial Advisory Committee as provided for in the new plan of The Hague agreement of January 20, 1930 STOP To show cause and purpose of this request, the German Government wishes to cite the following facts: In June of the current year the German Government had already come to the conclusion that in spite of the severest reduction in Governmental expenditures and repeated increases in taxes it would be unable to continue the annuities payable under the new plan. The economic and financial situation of Germany appeared already at that time most seriously endangered. There- fore the German Government has decided to draw the neoessary conclusions from this situation. This decision was followed on June 21 by a declaration of the President of the United States of America suggesting a *) Disregarded in final copy. -2postponement of one year in the payment of all inter-governmental debts, reparations, and reconstruction debts. The purpose of this farsighted initiative, as pointed out in the proposal, was to contribute towards reestablishment of confidence thereby promoting political peace as well as economic stabilization throughout the world; the debtor states were to receive time to regain national prosperity. The hope that this proposal would bring about a de- cisive turn in the world crisis has proved vain. Further events showed that the hoover debt holiday alone wasunable to avert the danger of a collapse. Therefore, the British Government took the initiative in July in calling the London Conference, which resulted in the recormendation that the centrql bank credit to the Reichsbank be extended, and also in tlIc conclusion of the Basle standstill agreement and in the report of a committee of experts appointed by the Bank for International Settlements. No matter how important these measures were to bring relief more quickly, they were in their whole nature of a preparatory oharacter only. The London Conference stated in the final sentence of its resolution that the measures recommended were only the first step and should merely form the foundation for more comprehensive action. Accordingly, the experts who cooperated in carrying out the reoommendations of the London Conference kept ever in mind the provisional character of all these measures. For instance, it says in the standstill agreement that the contracting parties consider the adjustment pro7ided for therein effective only "until a permanent solution of Germany's Short term flebt shall have been found." -3.. The report of the Basle Committee of exneets closes urgent recommendation ith the not to lose any time in taking the necessary measures to create a situation which will make possible financial transactions designed to bring to Germany and thus to the world the relief so urgently needed". In the months since passed the economic and financial situation in Germany has grown extremely acute. The facts Whidh characterize the present situation are generally known. The pressure of the crisis has also had the most serious effect in other countries. The world is realizing more and more clearly the close connectior between the various individual financial problems created by the present situation and the necessity of handling them as soon as possible in their entirety. In considering how this task might best be handled, the idea to call the Speeial Advisory Com ittee has recently come to the foreground. Since according to the provisions of the new plan the conv(ration of a Special Advisory Committee depends upon the request of the German Government, the German Government has decided to make this request so that e-v.e ything has been done on its part to clear the way for comprehensive joint measures of the Governments. According to the new plan a statement by the German Government is required to the effect that "in good faith it has arrived at the oonclusion that Germany's currency and economic structure are seriously endangered by further tranafer in part or in full of the postponable annuities". In making this statement the German Government feels obliged to say that this statement does not do justice to present conditions. Since the new plan was drawn up, the economic and financial situation throughout the world and particularly in Germany has been fundamentally changed through an unprecedented crisis. As the new plan assigns to the Special Advisory Committee the task of investigating the situation from all angles, the committee must examine the problem in its entirety and with due consideration for all factors involved. It must particularly take into account that the question of Germany's private indebLedness must be newly regulated before the end of February 1932 by means of an agreement to be reached between foreign creditors and German debtors. As the present situation requires immediate decision on measures to be taken the Germtr Government suggests that the Special Advisory Committee convene immediately and complete its work as soon as possible so that a conference of the Governments concerned may be called in the near future which will then take a responsible decision in the matter. Berlin, November 19, 1931 UNQUOTE Fraser COPY COEFIDENTIAL FOR HARRISON 1. Ve have been instructed by the British Government to hold in Nem- York at the disposal of the American Government on Thursday, the fifteenth of December, gold to the value of $95,550,000. 2. It will take about five to six weeks to ship the required amount and we are, therefore, compelled to ask you whether you will cooperate with us in the following manner: 3. voi That you will place at our disposal as of December fifteenth gold in New York to the value of $95,550,000 against an equivalent amount of gold to be earmarked for your account by us in London. 4. That we undertake to start shipment of such earmarked gold to New York at once commencing December fourteenth and to complete delivery in New York not later than the end of January. Shipments to be at our cost and risk. 5. That we obtaI rr'' n from the British Goverment an undertaking not A to put any obstacles in the way of exporting such earmarked gold HARVEY 171-10:Prim1741V4 cr5CTIA It is ?ropQ3sd .74.g=irx Yvrtign ltmiholders, smiwAho simllar to tho Britiah Council uhlet has bees In existemee for over fifty yearSe 14 The Courel would hrve the falosth urpose holders ar nwners of foreign ttecuritioo which ire based assist ilneriesr, on the taxing power, in protecting std safeguarding their rieltu ttad intorcits In su0h securities, or in otherwise obtaining an equitable settlement of such obligntionu. It mould sooperato, with crsuncils in ether countries pemforming sizilar functions. 2* The ismiher of the members at the Co!Incil would be fifteen. They should he disinterested ow of high stAnding, not representatives af issue houses, who will, on the one hand, give the Colman prestige at bons end abroad and, tin the otheri *ill be tctive in carrying out the 7urpose of the Council. iv 3TRA4114:41 There would be a Chaim and Secretary and such other officers as the Council might crette. lhe Chairman would be ex9ected to giro part of his time end the Secretary all of his time, end the two together to cam on the main work of the ieusien. Mamma In due aclirano Um* on British experience, the Council should obtain its surnort from allotments set aside in etnnecti= with completed negotiations. At the outset, it should have a guaranteed income of at least $50,000 a year fcr a period of five years. It is toped that this Porsates X47 be Obtained, uholl4y or la 'aro part* through disinterested sources. 11 11 Sit jkle,44113aM9itt404 Vhenevcr the Cuneil felt it ueeessary4 thrall& commitation vith the houxe issuing a defaulted security er otherwise, it would either form A COMMittte CT uoopfrste in the formation of o. committee in respect to a oartioular Doeurttyt group of seammitiet or- Ionia& entilioN Such taalmittee vonld vael6rtaXa 411.atever negetiation I'mealte noseesery es desirehle with the debtors, . ,441a2 1 r2 e It iv tiP be presumod. that the Council, while wholly independent, would **Wain acre and, whoraVor practicable, coopemtive relations with teems 7f is beloved that its octet.** would oft= 2revent conflict- ing comaittees tith reepeet to * startle ism or eauntry; rand that, in time, eommittets topanted by or affiliated with the Council would be recognised as the uppreprite committees with whiat 4 foreign tadiagpmenriM4At negotiate, The ettAA011, in same or all C340d, eight devil* to pls.* a representative, without ...sk -mt.* oa nagetiatims eemaittees se aeons of...keeping In toweh with negotiations, virl xiOtt emcees fini4 eppoval at settlenents so negotiettedo. ileZtiladaiLkliagait Tat Council mad not seek any deposit of eecuritieso although negotiating committAw 3ight determine to aok for dep*sits, Deeeiber 13, 19.% wpm.fig JLc ;0 E. Iterfaags 7. H. takor : • if Dovia ifsitar S• Griffead Norman it• Davio 'Nary Bruer* 111e14oa Chubb .. ... Ikaidas Insurfattee •• •• 4./. •,• Public Uti'lit, ;hill.tie berries Scrims Insurcato. Invited Invited invited Invited lavited Dealinsd Alta T, I. Porkins t• Ostes tiav Invited - AeIx-A*4 FAteatton Invitegi Mina Atrevy Lidustagai UMW* ViUias ibees* SIXEfilit Newton D. Weer i1/311 teary tellso. komdma I. Clortwas innisigi Invit Deathed t•L'rwlio t-'471-Ac1iAl cif'1040 VINGEW GISPlang. - of TbtiAblear NeviIq&irriitRd t:1411,66 at 449.1406 Iseik the undercignatia dastring to torn * corporation sad testasso Uwe* oet for pecuniNry benefit, under and 14, vino* a the prOWieions of the Meoberchip Corporation* losi 0sin lork, United Eto.tss of America, her.* of the state; I. The same 0 the prepoeed corporation is *Council for tho Protection of Holders of rereisis Imo.° (hereinafter somotiees termed the Council), to The purpose* which the Council is to be Amid mires (6.) To ocsist holders or owners of foreign Mos (ikis tordsafter defined), irreepsettve of eny defeat thereunder, in ascertaining, protecting, safeguerding øa enforcing their right nd LatereAs under, mad in ra*pset of, mesh foreign Eecuritii slt4 In atttAing„ coal-Arose...61u and composig controversies relitting to each foreign securities, emd espeolelly foreign securities public", Issued, contrmAed„ neactistod, dealt in or sold in the United of Asterics. gond. securitia*iLL bia deimed to be bonds, notes, debentures, annuities, rents*, shArlp„ stoetst deeces or indeUtodaesi and ehLkgatiens sst4 Lkavx 44CiAi'141via of every kW, of, or Ismael, assamod or guallantwod by, or eecured by ?ledge, lima sr charge an proTelly„ revenues or tsxeo oi, uny government, nation, state, colony, pmfyince„ county, district, cur, municipality, or public, govern- mental or political subdiwielon, bo4y, corniszion„ board or •authority, outeide of the United Ltutel of Ame.rice, it torritorima, dependencies and possessions* . (b) To rvuote and assi4t in maintaining public credit end to ivevent and Lessen loss to hold*rb or owners of foreign securities, end to pronote jukt„ sound, clenr mnd staple principles, coaditi.ms nnd terms of the purchases sale, iseuenes sod negotiation of forcAgn severities and dealings titerein4 (e) Vithset Uniting the generslity of the toroviell (1) to *Mein, collects eaapile, prom,* sod distribute W0101'01414 in any way relating to seek foroign sectvitles or any govornment„ 'latticin g *tat., eolony, province, cw2nty, district, city, or public, goweranenta or politica embdivisi, body, commission, botrd or authority, or the property, tAnts or revenue thereof, either direct4 or 2 cooperating 1,41t or <orr.tortrt oo otIAr eorportioN sitscoq. ,,t1 tnt# rt.rIretitmtin or tn6tviOuell (P) To nelptiAtf4 ItsPist In sesplimting, Armen*. convertition, &7013*ngo, rorunding„ eottleIftnt er ovt7retive of rights tad tt1i4t_tivIt or in reset of, foreign mecuritioe; () To organise, OCIlip tad edpoiot vilsidAto, delegates 4o4 roprewAstivet 4:S the Couttell, cr of Othors, with 1, View to oorrying ova Any of the purposes of the Oz%Inoill (4) To cologne meetings of boldtxs or ovnere If foreign securities for the pnrpose of ooneetttd 4iotiorm or of orzenising oommattee0 to represent such ilolilerst or owner*, or to vet tor tbeir bemefit; ($) To adffiadat 040400.40 in Ow eppointmoot of committees or menbers thercof (Oho my ' but need net trit, otfteirs0 direolow0" spats or 1#4010ftra o( Un Clanton) to rolowesent, or it for the benefit of, bolder* or ovimes of foreign seourfties; (0) 20 soopermte it other oorporatins„ asto- elation., Memo sdnettlonal And ottvr.r inetitutionn, oommittes, J.nlivi tsenolos Ia, governmenta, g000trumentol domArtments in. the United Ststios of Amelia', end Davis* somattiost *took leadhswil and others with a view to carrying oat any of the pat. puses of the C3uncill (7) To vapport measures, ince* statutes, reg. intim* end cadesc of principles deemed to be :41 furtherms* of the purposes of tø Cannons (1) To rends.r assistance, rimmed"' or othervies, to om, *lesions, dsiognteo, represontatives and sioulto of the CoAsacil or of others, or to Any othor omporotizA, asecciationi ftrat conaitteet edusi. lima or other institatton, or individuel in furthorixnee of the parposeD of the Council, and to sz. vloy, oonponsato sod mounertte its officers, directors and agents and othars for services rendered ia furthoiranos of the purposes of the Cztmeil, And no ruzber of the associktion shall be disqualified as bauh from being se emploved or from receiving aunt remuneration sr oomposso4ion; (9) To rective remnnefttion tind conpensetian for ;services, ren4ared and financial and other aid given, provided that nothing 4clatained in this clause shall prevent the CuncI1 frr.-,17 rendoring services and giving financial or other aid witheat compensation or remusertstion, (X) To accept contributions to borrow or reise money without Unit for agy of the par2ozes of 4 the anacil, and to scrtgaite, chPrEe, *Age or hypothecate arr of the property g) the Ce.rancil, poramel or (subject to the lass of the EttAo a Him Iztrk) reel, as security for reperment of any moneys borrored, and to issue bald*, notes, 4*bs turô other evidences of indebtedness ter moneys borrowed, with or without intemitt (11) To tmveat nad rein-via-et fund* of the Council in Alljr Oiton*r and. in litigy respective of apy restriction othtrwisis taposed smy statute or. rule. of ltte, and to purchase, #equire,1,hold, sell 4nd dela iu personal 8n6 (subject to the lags of the VtAte of Ni,r York) reel property; (14 To aplay sod devote the property of the Councils upon esr dissolution of the. Council, first to the pram* of claims nrid dontnds asainst the Alowtellosed tholvt• parposmri 104111.0110 to objects *t netrly than* 4f the Council i.. convlreno* threer is trust or to illAtithor etorpor*.. tions aelecistion, firm or institution* as the Board of Directors of tho 0"unci1 shall at the time doom ;11.A.frtioale (4) It is not tho mirpose of tho Caunall, MAW officer, director, nynt or member of the Council shealhift 5 any pmer or tuthority to fici7 or trwlv.fer any iropprty of the Courcil tu svrbart cf the Council buy Inky of dividend or distributon or atherwiz)c, tIccwt as cosponwivn or ro— munerttiot f,r services render*d or 41.'ay of interset for frnde tAlvtteed, ;yr to oblitate, sake IV-at, or tlal: in 61y 1 4 the lectbvra of th* C:Ivre11, r the priv,,,te proper iy ttl'oeve; end cf the sitsbRrz at2 directors mi* the CoAlnea 0,111 in no orant be Walt for cny dabta, or obli— gations of the C,Ancil. 3, The BaGres of Directors of tht CmcU y, but wded not, appaut lualvi4uR1 t:r cor7,,mt* trusteer of snir or all. of th4 rt r tkg. an& conftr on filleh truatges c1104 of tke poiterQ, 44,tiArc. or 04144totaA id the Itsr4 of tirctort of the Cncil 1.3. relation to the cert., eustot- aud manablomett of such propelty At ths Zr.. of Dtrectcorl. n4y deez adviafikato ead this Dolertl ot Directors shall bays ?aux to tppoiat the uacooeser6 or such truAtow. 4. The territory ia rhizh the oportttikas or the ers ;rinc1;a1ly to be c4cducted is th nIttd ttelve Aserizz. 14 The prlacipa Wiz* of tit* C7onc11 is to be looetod in tee City, Cty And t ikw Iork, %hated States 4 isikrio*, I. Ti. nuehir of it diroctors 13 to tor, rinses, Tt The 43.:VJO ftnc idc f thc cIrectors until the armt ounuul moetiug are os, 3:;).Lio4 AVIV.1440$,Az (titeet naset) $. All of the subscribers• to this certtfiette • A;*0 4f full 44;a*, 44141.141.014birdt, of :kuct zab7'nribere, are eltirems of tht Unit such sabeeriberz ta SIMOMPIMPAimatieto At les" ft* of roAdect of the Siete of Stow York. Of tsit pertons named sak dirsotorsi et least rtt to a •eitison of the Untte0 tAxtes of America and e resident or the ttat* of Sew !cork. IN Ian= MORAVII, tho vaderhiped htTe =40, mityearthe6 end eeXualetmAssi this certificat/ in *apliette this digr of (At leuet five of the, persona mmAwd Re directors)