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F E D E R A L FEE D E RA L R E S R V E A GE N T ROBERTJ. SM IT H BOARD OF GO VERN O RS OF THE FED ER A L RESERVE SY ST E M R E S E R V E B A N K O F D A L L A S O R G A N IZ A T IO N C H A R T M A R C H 1 ,1956 V \ I CHAIRM AN ROBERTJ.SMITH B O A R D OF D I R E C T O R S A U D ITM K EV IEEW C O M IT TE PE R SM ON EE L C O M ITN TE THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS BM U DG CO M ITETTEE THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS SECRETARY OF THE BOARD M H RICE ASST SECRETARY OF THE BOARD G F RUDY EXECUTIVECOM M ITTEE INDUSTRIALADVISORY COM M ITTEE PRESIDENT W ATROUSHIRONS BOARD OF DIRECTORS HOUSTON BRANCH BOARD OF DIRECTORS SAN ANTONIO BRANCH BOARD OF DIRECTORS EL PASO BRANCH VICE PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT DISCOUNTCOM M ITTEE PRESIDENT, FIRST VICE PRESIDENT, OTHER VICE PRESIDENTS, CASHIER, AND ASSISTANT CASHIER IN CHARGE OF LOAN AND SECURITIES DEPARTMENT ~r FIRSTW VID CE PN RT ER SY IDENT GE GENERAL AUDITOR H CARRITHERS VICE PRESIDENT L G PONDROM VICE PRESIDENT and GEN COUNSEL H A SHUFORD VICE PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT and CASHIER WH HOLLOWAY VICE PRESIDENT VICE PRESIDENT E B AUSTIN ASST VICE PRESIDENT CHIEF EXAMINER M E HULSEY Jr NOTE ISSUES E 6 HUOEL ASST FEDERAL RESERVE AGENT HOUSTON BRANCH SAN ANTONiO BRANCH EL PASO BRANCH AUDITING DEPARTMENT H K OAVIS CASHIER B J TROY TR SULLIVAN ASST CASHIERS A E MUNDT CASHIER F C MAGEE FW REEO ASST CASHIERS A E RUSSELL CASHIER T C.ARNOLD ASST CASHIER I J REED ASST GENERAL AUDITOR AUDIT FUNCTIONS AT HEAD OFFICE AND BRANCHES ASSISTANT COUNSEL 6 F RUDY EXAMINATION ALL DEPARTMENT LEGAL WORK INCLUDING STATE BANK CONSULTATION MEMBERSHIP. WITH BOARD OF FIDUCIARY DIRECTORS POWERS ANOOFFICIAL STAFF OIRECTOROF DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH PERSONNEL J A PARKER P E COLOWELL PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT RESEARCH DEPARTMENT ASST CASHIER VAULT OPERATING RESEARCH DEPARTMENT CUSTODIES W F POPEJr MANAGER THE GENERAL AUDITOR HAS GENERAL SUPERVISION OF ALL AUDITING ACTIVITIES OF THE HEAD OFFICE IN ALL OTHER RESPECTS, THE GENERAL AUDITOR ANO THE AUDITING DEPARTMENT ARE SUBJECT TO J F YEILUSH MANAGER ASST CASHIER ASSTCASHIER ASST CASHIER ASST CASHIER ASST CASHIER HW KILMAN E H BERG WM PRITCHETT WD WALLER C H MOORE W DWALLER SERVICE DEPARTMENT CASH TRANSIT DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENT BANK AND PUBLIC RELATIONS DEPARTMENT J A HALL MANAGER H M SIMMONS MANAGER J L CAUTHEN MANAGER CC C DEPARTMENT H M ADAMS MANAGER administration ACCESS CUSTODY DIRECTLY TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF THE BANK AS TO AUDITING FUNCTIONS IONS AS THOSE WHICH GOVERN THE OTHER OFFICERS AND DEPARTMENTS OF THE BANK. FISCAL AGENCY DEPARTMENT R E BOHNE MANAGER ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT C R WALLIN MANAGER LOAN AND SECURITIES DEPARTMENT E G HUDEL MANAGER NEW BUILDING PROGRAM HOUSTON BRANCH FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS ORGANIZATION CHART M A R C H 1,1956 SAN ANTONIO BRANCH FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS A' i r i O RG ANIZATION C H A R T M A R C H 1,1956 V I 3 5 3 B EL PASO BRANCH FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS V <*, ORGANIZATION C H A R T M A R C H 1,1956 F E D E R A L BOARD F E D E RA AG LENT R E S E R V E ROBERTJ SM ITH OF GOVERNORS FEDERAL A U D ITM RIT EV W C O M TIE EE P R SM ON EE L CE O M ITN TE THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS BM UD G CO M ITETTEE THREE MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS RESERVE OF BOARD OF DIRECTORS E L PASO BRANCH VIC E PRESID EN T W E EAGLE V IC E PRESID EN T C M ROWLAND D A L L A S Ja n u a ry 1 ,1 9 5 5 N ROBC EH RA TIR JM SA M ITH DIRECTORS SECRETARY OF THE BOARD M H RICE A SST SECRETARY OF THE BOARD G F RUDY EXECUTIVECOM M ITTEE INDUSC TO RM IA LITA M TD EV EISORY SECRETARY DISCOUNTCOM M ITTEE PRESIDENT FIRST VICE PRESIDENT, OTHER VICE PRESIDENTS, CASHIER, AND ASSISTANT CASHIER IN CHARGE OF LOAN AND SECURITIES DEPARTMENT FIRSTW VD ICE RTER SY IDENT GEP N SECR3E1TARY I VICE PR E SID E N T J L COOK O F SYSTEM PRESIDENT W ATROUSHIRON S BOARD OF DIRECTORS SAN ANTONIO BRANCH B A N K O R G A N IZ A T IO N C H A R T OF THE BOARD BOARD OF DIRECTORS HOUSTON BRANCH R E S E R V E GENERAL AUDITOR G R MURFF VICE PRESIDENT L G PONDROM VIC E PRESID EN T and GEN COUNSEL H A SHUFORD V IC E PRESID EN T and CASHIER W H HOLLOWAY V IC E PR ESID EN T M H RICE VICE P R ESID EN T T W PLANT V IC E PR ESID EN T E B AUSTIN ASSTCASHIER HWKILM AN ASSTCASHIER DIRECTOROF EXECUTIVE ESEARCH ASSISTANT EHBERG PR ECOLDW ELL W MPRITCHETT ASSTVICE PRESIOENT HCARRITHERS CHIEF ASSISTANT DIRECTOROF SSTCASHIER EXAMINER COUNSEL PERSONNEL A NBHARW ELL GEOF RUDY J APARKER WDWALLER NOTE ISSUES HOUSTON BRANCH EG H EL A SESU TO H KSO A VR iS F E O R A L C A H IE RE EER V BJ TROT ASG N TE TR SULLIVAN A SSIE TRS CA SH SANANTONIO ELPASO AUDITING BRANCH BRANCH DEPARTMENT A E M U N O T A E R U S S E L L . )A JN R EG EE D CASHIER CASHIER A R F&M AGEE TCARNOLD M A U D IT CH M O O R E A S S T A S S T C A S H IE R FUNCTIONS CASHIERS AT HEADOFFICE AND BRANCHES A EXAM INATION EGA LLL W ORK DEPARTMENT LIN C L U D IN G C O N S U L T A T ION ST TBEER BS A N K, W ITHO BFOARD M EA M H IP FP ID U C IA R Y DIRECTORS OW ERS AN DST O FF FF ICIAL A BANK PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT ANDPUBLIC R E LATIONS WFPOPEJr DEPA RTMENT M ANAGER ASSTCASHIER W DWALLER VAULT CUSTODIES c u st o d y access ASSTCASHIER TAHARDIN CCC FISCAL TRANSIT CASH SERVICE OPERATING DE GENCY DEPARTMENT PARTMENT DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENT DEA RESEARCH P A R T M E N T DEPARTMENT H M ADAM S JL C A U T H E N J-AHALL HMSIMMONS M ANAGER ANAGER ROY£ BOHNE M M ANAGER M ANAGER M ANAGER LOANAND ACCOUNTING RESEARCH SECURITIES DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENT CRW ALLIN M ANAGER EGHUOEL M ANAGER THE GENERALAUDITORHAS GENERAL SUPERVISIONOF ALL AUDITINGACTIVITIES OFTHE HEADOFFICE ANDBRANCHES ANDIS RESPONSIBLE DIRECTLY TOTHE BOARDOF DIRECTORS OF THE BANKASTOAUDITING FUNCTIONS INALLOTHERRESPECTS, THE GENERALAUDITORANDTHE AUDITINGDEPARTMENTARE SUBJECT TOTHESAM ERULES ANDREGULATIONS AS THOSE W HICHGOVERNTHEOTHEROFFICERS ANDDEPARTMENTSOFTHEBANK FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS O R G A N I Z A T I O N FEDERAL B O A R D OF G O V E R N O R S RESERVE AGENT OF THE J. R. P A R T E N M A Y C H A R T L I 9 5 4 F E D E R A L RESERVE S Y S T E M BOARD AUDIT R E V IE W C O M M IT T E E PERSONNEL C O M M IT T E E THREE M E M BERS O F T H E BIR OA RD O D EC TO RFS OF C H A IR M A N J.R . P A R T E N D IR E C T O R S BUDGET THREO EFM E M BERS T H E BIR OA O D ER CD TO RFS O M M IT T E E TCH REO EFM E M BERS T H E BIR OA O FS D ER CD TO R SECRETA R.YH FIC TH M .O R EEBOARD ASST.SECRG ETFA R Y O FTHEBOARD . RUDY E X E C U T IV E C O M M IT T E E D IS C O U N T C O M M IT T E E IN D U S T R I A L A D V I S O R Y C O M M IT T E E P R E S ID E N T W A T R O U S H. I R O N S P R EE SID E N TIDENT, F IR S T V IC P R E S OTHERV IC E PIE RR E,SIDENTS, C A SA H AN D A S S IS T N T CA SA H IER I N C H A R G E O F L O N AN DSECURITIES DEPARTM ENT SECRETARY BOARD OF DIRECTORS HOUSTON BRANCH BOARD OF DIRECTORS SAN ANTONIO BRANCH F IR S T V IC E P R E S I D E N T W .D . G E N T R Y BOARD OF DIRECTORS E L PASO BRANCH I SECRETARY dV IC E PRESIDENT WH HOLLOWAY V IC E PR ESID EN T W E EAGLE V IC E PRESID EN T C M ROWLAND GENERAL AUDITOR G.R M U R F F V IC E P R E S ID E N T and GEN C O U N S E L H A SHU FO RD V IC E P R E S ID E N T L G PONDROM V IC E P R ESID EN T AND C A SH IER J L COOK V IC E P R E SID E N T E 8 AUSTIN V IC E P R E S ID E N T T W P LA N T V IC E PR ESID EN T M H R IC E A SS T VICE P R E S I D ENT H.CARR IT H ER S CH IEF E X A M IN E R N B H ARW ELL NOTE IS S U E S E.G.HUDEL ASST. F ED ER A L R ESERVE AGEN T HOUSTON BRANCH SAN ANTONIO BRANCH E L PASO BRANCH AUDITING DEPARTMENT H K DAVIS C A SH IER B J TROY ASST C A SH IER A E MUNDT C A SH IER F C MAGEE A SS T C A SH IE R A .E .R U S S E L L C A SH IER T C ARNO LD A SS T C A SH IER I.J R EED MANAGER AUOIT FU N C T IO N S AT H E A D O F F IC E A ND BRANCHES A S S IS T A N T CO U N SEL GEO F. RUDY D IR EC T O R OF P E R SO N N E L J A. P A R K E R A SS T CASHIER ALL PERSO NN EL LEG A L WORK DEPARTMENT INCLUDING CONSULTATION STATE BANK W F P O P E Jr WITH BOARD M EM B E R SH IP , MA N AG ER OF F ID U C IA R Y D IR EC T O R S PO W ERS AND O FFIC IA L STAFF. INTERPRETATION I OF LAWS AND , REGU LATIO NS BA N K AND PUBLIC R EL A T IO N S D EPARTM EN T EXAMINATION DEPARTM EN T A SS T CASHIER H W K IL M A N W.D W ALLER T H E G E N E R A L A U D IT O R H A S G E N E R A L S U P E R V IS IO N O F A L L A U D IT IN G A C T I V I T I E S OF T H E F U N C T IO N S . IN A L L O T H E R R E S P E C T S , T H E G E N E R A L A U D IT O R A N D T H E A U D IT IN G VAULT C U ST O D IES DEPARTM EN T C U ST O D Y T R A N S IT DEPARTM ENT C A SH DEPARTMENT T A HARDIN MA N AG ER H M SIM M O N S M ANAGER F IS C A L AGENCY DEPARTMENT J L CAUTHEN MANAGER ac C DEPARTM ENT H MADAMS MAN AG ER LOAN AND SEC U R IT IES DEPARTMENT E.G HUDEL M A N AG ER ASST CASHIER E.H BERG A SST CASHIER W.D W A L L E R DIRECTOR OF R ESEA R C H P E.CO LDW ELL ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT SERVICE DEPARTMENT RESEARCH DEPARTMENT C.R.WALLIN MANAGER J A HALL M AN AG ER A C CESS H E A D O F F IC E AND B R A N C H E S A N D IS R E S P O N S IB L E D IR E C T L Y TO T H E B O A R D O F D IR E C T O R S O F T H E B A N K A S TO A U D IT IN G A R E SU B JEC T TO THE S A M E R U L E S A N D R E G U L A T IO N S A S T H O S E W H ICH G O V ER N T H E O T H ER O F F IC E R S A N D D E P A R T M E N T S O F T H E BANK. DEPARTM ENT PUBLICATIONS RELATING TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS Alffi THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS OF THE ELEVENTH FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 1. Items - September 1919 to date (This is the official publication of the Federal Reserve Club) 2. Proceedings of Stockholders Meetings - 1927-1931 3. Annual Reports - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas *(•. Monthly Business Review 5. Stockholders Reports 6 . Miscellaneous speeches and reports 7. What The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Is Doing (A review by W. F. Ramsey, published November 1918) 8 . An Analysis of the Member Bank Relations Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (By W. J. Evans) 9- Phenomenal Growth of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (1932-19^0 10. Expansion in Services Rendered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (1932-19^) 11. Newspaper clippings - 1925-1929 12. History of Organization and Growth of Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (By J. L. Lumpkin - March 31; 1920) 13. A Study of Texas Banking History (By Alfred 0. Nicholson - Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Dallas, Texas - June 19^9) lU. The Discount Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (By Jean Richardson - Thesis for the degree of Master of Science August 19^7) FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS CHAIRMEN OF THE BOARD AND FEDERAL RESERVE AGENTS E. 0. Tennison 191U - 1915 W. F. Ramsey 1916 - 1922 XI. B. Newsome 1922 - 1923 Lynn P. Talley 1923 - 1925 Charles C . Valsh 1925 - 1937 J. H. Merritt 1938 - 19^1 Jay L. Taylor 1 9 lf2 - 19^5 J. R. Parten 19^6 - to date M O N T H I dY R E V I E W B lIS IN E F E D E R A \ ol. 40, No. ■ L R E S E R V E B A N K O F D A DALLAS, TEXAS L L A S April 1, 1955 PO TEN TIAL E C O N O M IC G R O W T H O F THE U N ITED STATES D U R IN G THE NEXT D E C A D E There is presented in the following pages of this issue of the M onthly Business R eview a summary of a study released by the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, Eighty-third Congress, Second Session. To most people the future holds a certain fascination and, though it means a real difference in their lives, is considered a topic for mere speculation. To the businessman faced with the task of matching plant capacity with future demand, estimates of the economic future of our country are a neces sity. Nearly all businesses must make some estimate of future demands, prices, and production. Some businesses, such as retail food stores, need only a 6-month forward look, while others, such as electric power companies, need estimates for periods ranging from 5 to 10 years into the future. Moreover, as the national economy becomes more complex, there is a tendency to require an even longer range estimate of the future economic potential. Thus, whether the estimates are to be used to guide in ventory policies, long-range buying, plant construction, raw material allocations, pension fund investments, or a multitude of other management decisions, some basis for such manage ment decisions must be established. Similarly, long-range projections of economic growth provide a basis for govern ment estimates, particularly with reference to budget policy and future resource developments. Because of the importance of these interests and because of the general interest in the economy on the part of all groups, it is the purpose of this article to review the projections of the basic economic trends as prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on the Eco nomic Report. At the outset, it should be emphasized that the Report con tains only projections, not forecasts or predictions. The dis tinctions implied by the terminology lie in the methods used to obtain results. Projections are extensions of existing trends. Forecasts or predictions may be based on projections but contain an element of judgment which is entirely missing from projections. Thus, while a projection of population accepts the recent rate of growth as its only basis for the estimate of the future, a forecast might modify or accelerate that rate of growth according to the personal judgment of the analyst. Introduction The introductory sections of the Report concern the im portance of looking farther ahead, the objective of the Report, and some general assumptions upon which the projections are based. In discussing the first of these, it is indicated that long-range projections are being requested more frequently to aid in management decisions on such problems as capital budgets, sales objectives, and plant locations. Similarly, Fed eral, state, and local government analysts sometimes must project economic trends as far as 25 years into the future to provide the foundation upon which to decide major policy questions on such problems as national security, civil works, and taxes. However, the current Report limits its projections to a 10-year period — that is, to 1965. In the case of any set of projections, the Report notes, it is important to define the major economic goals desired and to determine the changes in present trends which are necessary to reach these goals. It also reveals that, for these projections, “we have set ‘maximum’ economic growth as the goal. The word ‘maximum’ is used here in the sense of a persistent grow th at rates which recent experience indicates to be feasible on the basis of conservative judgments.” Furthermore, the Report states that “the projections for the year 1965 do not necessarily assume achievement of maxi mum economic growth each and every year between now and 46 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 1965.” However, it is assumed . . that any slowing up in expansion of productive capacity or demand in 1 year will be made up by a later speeding up and vice versa.” This assumption of an over-all average growth pattern is a funda mental requirement for the projections in the Report, and any major deviation from this assumption would have a significant effect upon the results obtained. Moreover, “. . . no allowance is made for the effects on our economic growth of prolonged recession, major depression, war, or other serious international complications.” In the presentation of the projections in this Report, all estimates of output or expenditures, except for government gross national product, are stated in average 1953 prices. “The estimates of incomes and of Government gross national product,. . . assume that (1) as productivity increases, aver age hourly earnings and the returns to the other factors en gaged in private production will rise in order to maintain recent relationships between costs, profits, and stock of busi ness capital; and (2) rates of compensation of Government employees, military and civilian, will be adjusted upward to maintain the 1953 relationship with rates in private employment.” Several important implications follow from the assump tions of a relatively stable price level and the maintenance of current relationships among the rates of return to factors of production. The Report indicates that an assumption of price stability is necessary, first, to emphasize the changes in real output and incomes and, second, because “. . . this is a gener ally recognized goal of Government action.” It is noted, how ever, that individual price fluctuations are not prohibited by the assumption of general price stability. Nevertheless, this assumption does imply . . that the money supply will con tinue to rise as the Nation’s output grows.” Again, any major deviation from the assumption would affect seriously the projections in this Report. Assumptions on Population In the preparation of the projections in the Report, the staff of the Joint Committee considered the size and age com position of the population as the basic foundation. The analy sis thus begins with the trends in population as a prime factor affecting potential national production and demand for goods and services. The Report draws upon a study of the United States Bureau of the Census for the following basic assump tions on population in 1965. “ (1) Total population for the United States is estimated at 190 million,. . . “ (2) Population 14 years of age and over is estimated at 137 million,. . . “ (3) The number of households is estimated at 56 million,. . The detailed projections of population, as shown in the accompanying table, reveal several important facts about the composition of the population of the United States in 1965. It is apparent that the larger increases are expected in two major groups. First, in that portion of the population between the ages of 10 and 24, it is expected that there will be an increase of nearly 14,115,000 persons. Second, in that part of the population which is 50 years of age or over, an increase of 7.801.000 is indicated by 1965. In fact, these two groups account for all but 3,218,000 of the total gain expected in the population between 1955 and 1965. It is of particular sig nificance that the population segment where ages range be tween 25 and 50 is expected to show an increase of only 664.000 in this period, while the number of persons over age 65 is estimated to rise 3,363,000 in the next decade. These projections have important implications to the size and struc ture of the labor force; the type and size of the market for consumer goods and services; and, ultimately, the capacity requirements of specific industries. The population projections provide the basic material from which other projections are made by the staff of the Joint Committee. The Report estimates that “. . . the total labor force in 1965 will be 79 million, which, allowing for 3 mil lion in the armed services, would give a civilian labor force of 76 million.” Unemployment is assumed to approximate 4 percent of the civilian labor force, or about the average pre vailing during the postwar years. Furthermore, the Report assumes that the downward trend of agricultural employment will continue and that only 5,500,000 persons will be em ployed in agricultural pursuits in 1965, reflecting a decline of 1,200,000 from the level in 1953. Total government employment is expected to rise to about 7,500,000, assuming that the number of Federal employees remains constant, while state and local government employ ment is expected to increase nearly 1,600,000 over the 1953 level. The remaining work force, about 60,000,000, will be employed in nonagricultural establishments, reflecting a rise of 10,700,000 from 1953 to 1965. Average annual hours per man are assumed to decline about 0.8 percent per year, a reduction of about 4 hours per week in the 12-year period. On the other hand, output per man-hour is assumed to rise 3 percent per year in agriculture and about 2.5 percent per year in nonagricultural industries. P R O J E C T IO N S O F T O T A L P O P U L A T IO N IN T H E U N IT E D S T A T E S BY A G E G R O U P S , JU L Y 1, 1955 A N D 1965 (In thousand;) Age 1955 1965 A ll a g e s .............................................................................. 1 6 4 /8 2 U n d e r 5 y e a r s .................................................................... 5 to 9 y e a r s ......................................................................... 1 0 to 1 4 y e a r ..................................................................... 1 5 to 1 9 y e a r s .................................................................. 2 0 to 2 4 y e a r s .................................................................. 2 5 to 2 9 y e a r s .................................................................. 3 0 to 3 4 y e a r ..................................................................... 3 5 to 3 9 y e a r s .................................................................. 4 0 to 4 4 y e a r s .................................................................. 4 5 to 4 9 y e a r ..................................................................... 5 0 to 5 4 y e a r s .................................................................. 5 5 to 5 9 y e a r s .................................................................. 6 0 to 6 4 y e a r ..................................................................... 6 5 to 6 9 y e a r s .................................................................. 7 0 to 7 4 y e a r s .................................................................. 1 7 ,9 1 7 1 7 ,1 4 5 1 3 ,3 4 2 1 1 ,1 9 0 1 0 ,7 7 5 1 1 /1 3 1 2 ,3 6 7 1 1 ,6 1 8 ] 1 ,2 3 6 1 8 ,8 8 4 1 8 ,7 3 2 1 8 ,7 6 2 1 7 ,1 9 7 1 3 ,4 6 3 1 1 ,3 6 1 8 ,8 3 0 7 ,8 7 3 6 ,6 8 5 5 ,3 1 5 4 ,0 9 2 1 0 /4 1 9 ,3 3 1 7 ,7 5 4 6 ,3 8 1 4 ,8 0 7 7 5 y e a r s a n d o v e r ........................................................ 4^ 566 6 ,1 4 8 lo|ll8 S O U R C E : U nited S t a te s B u re a u o f th e C e n su s. 1 8 9 ,9 1 6 10 ,90 8 1 1 ,7 6 1 1 2 ,3 0 0 11,386 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW P R O J E C T I O N S B Y A g e C la s s e s O F T O T A L A G E P O P U L A T I O N G R O U P S , J U L Y 1955 IN 1 ,1 9 5 5 47 T H E A N D U N I T E D S T A T E S 1 9 6 5 1965 7 5 y e a rs and o ve r 7 0 to 7 4 O ver 6 5 6 5 to 6 9 6 0 to 6 4 5 5 to 5 9 5 0 to 5 4 4 5 to 4 9 L a b o r fo rc e l a r g e l y fr o m t h is g ro u p 4 0 to 4 4 3 5 to 3 9 3 0 to 3 4 2 5 to 2 9 2 0 to 2 4 1 5 t o 19 1 0 to 1 4 U nder 2 0 5 to 9 U n d er 5 y e a rs 6 (M illfonsofT10otalPopulat12ion) SO U R CE U S Bureau of the Census With the above assumptions, the Report then projects potential total national production to be $535,000,000,000 in 1965. F a c to rs M a k in g f o r G r o w t h In D e m a n d Having projected the output of goods and services to 1965, the Report turns to the development ol the various factors constituting the demand for that output. The first major component of demand, government, is estimated by combin ing the projections of three parts — national security; Fed eral, state, and local construction; and payrolls and miscel laneous goods and services. The Report states that, in 1965, “. . . a continuation of in ternational conditions will result in expenditures for national security programs of about $40 billion per year compared to $52 billion in 1953 and a recent rate of slightly under $45 billion.” This projected rate of expenditure allows for pay increases for civilian and military personnel and for expendi tures in line with a level of 3,000,000 uniformed personnel and a maintenance basis of major purchases. Federal, state, and local public construction expenditures, according to the Report, “__ are assumed to increase from $10.1 billion in 1953 to at least $17 billion by 1965, of which $4 billion would be for schools, $6 billion for highways, and $7 billion for all other.” Behind this projection is the belief that the growing population and the backlog of current needs will maintain a high rate of public construction for many years. The Report indicates, however, that the backlog should be filled by 1965. Payrolls of government employees and other purchases (except for national security and construction), the third part of government demand, “. . . are assumed to increase from $23.1 billion in 1953 to $40 billion by 1965, reflecting largely the assumed changes in State and local government employment and in Government pay scales.” It could be noted that the expected increase in retired workers also would cause some increase in service expenses, such as social security. It is assumed further by the Report that Federal tax rates will continue to decline and that the Federal budget will be balanced by 1965. However, state and local government units are expected to operate at a $2,000,000,000 deficit. Needless to say, these assumptions could be rendered invalid by any significant change in economic conditions and, therefore, would have a differing effect upon the projections. P r iv a t e In v e s t m e n t The second major component of demand is private invest ment. The estimate? of this demand are based on four assump tions. First, “. . . residential nonfarm construction is assumed to increase from $11.9 billion in 1953 to $16 billion per year by 1965.” This estimate is based upon the housing facilities needed to accommodate the expected 56,000,000 households in 1965. The Report continues that the estimate provides “. . . (a) New housing to increase the housing supply to take care of the additional 800,000 to 900,000 new households expected each year by the mid-1960’s; (b) for replacement of wornout or destroyed residential structures; (c) for improve ments on existing structures; and (d) for conversions.” As suming the same ratio of nonfarm housing starts to residential nonfarm construction expenditures in 1965 as in 1953, the Report indicates that private nonfarm housing starts in 1965 would approximate 1,400,000, compared with 1,068,300 in 1953. Substantiating this projection are the data presented in MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 48 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T (C O N S T A N T D O L L A R S ) P E R M A N - H O U R IN A G R I C U L T U R A L A N D IN P R IV A T E N O N A G R IC U L T U R A L IN D U S T R IE S , I9 IO - I9 5 3; E S T IM A T E D , 1965 the population table, which shows the largest increases occur ring in age groups in which people are looking for new housing to accommodate new households. The second part of private investment is business expendi tures for plant and equipment. These, the Report assumes, will . . amount to about $60 billion per year by 1965 com pared to $38 billion in 1953.” Of this total amount projected for 1965, $25,000,000,000 will be used to replace fixed assets actually retired each year, and approximately $35,000,000,000 will be needed for expansion and accelerated replace ments. The Report further indicates that the projection implies a higher rate of modernization of facilities than presently pre vails. It is noted that possibilities of atomic energy develop ments, the feasibility of industrial dispersion, and the improved corporate profit position resulting from increased output and lower tax rates should lend support to the expected level of plant and equipment expenditures. A third segment of private investment demand concerns the level of net foreign investment. The Report states that this item . . . in 1965 is assumed to be $2 billion per year com pared to minus $1.9 billion in 1953.” However, it is noted that the estimate reflects primarily a direction of change rather than an absolute magnitude. Many uncontrollable fac tors might affect this level of investment, so the estimates must be considered very tentative. Part four of private investment demand is the change in inventories. The Report states that the “. . . annual increase in inventories is assumed to be $3 billion per year by 1965 com pared to $1.5 billion in 1953.” However, it is explained that this projection reflects an average increase over a period of years and that a slower rate of accumulation might be pos sible, depending upon the relative efficiency of operations. C o n su m e r D e m a n d The final major component of demand which is considered in the Report is consumer demand. In order to make a projec tion of consumer expenditures, the staff of the Joint Commit tee decided that, first, it was necessary to project disposable personal income and personal savings. The Report indicates that “. . . disposable personal income is estimated to rise from $250.1 billion in 1953 to $380 billion in 1965.” This estimate is predicated, in part, upon the following assumptions. First, personal tax rates will be lowered; second, wages and em ployment will increase; and, third, corporations will pay out a larger proportion of net profits in the form of dividends. Personal savings are assumed by the Report “. . . to decline from the average of 7.9 percent prevailing over the last 3% years to an average of about 6 percent of disposable personal income by 1965.” This rather sharp change is based upon the need to provide a larger market for consumer goods, which, in turn, will encourage a higher level of business investment. The Report continues that the future rate of savings is one of considerable debate and that the projection given above is lower than most estimates. Many factors affect the rate of savings, including the age distribution of the population, changes in retirement funds, the development of new prod ucts, and the changing pattern of consumer debt. It is noted that after 1965 there will be even more pressure toward a lower savings rate occasioned by the sharp increase in new family formations, which, of course, will require substantial purchases of household goods. In retrospect, assuming that disposable personal income reaches $380,000,000,000 and that the savings rate equals 6 percent — or $22,000,000,000 — in 1965, then “. . . con sumer expenditures could rise from $230.1 billion in 1953 to $357 billion in 1965 in constant prices.” Separate projections also are made at 1953 prices for durable goods, nondurable goods, and services expenditures. In brief, the Report shows durable goods consumer purchases rising from $29,700,000,000 in 1953 to $50,000,000,000 in 1965. Nondurable goods expenditures are assumed to increase from $ 118 ,900 ,000,000 in 1953 to $185,000,000,000 in 1965. Expenditures for serv ices are expected to rise from $81,400,000,000 in 1953 to $122,000,000,000 in 1965. S U M M A R Y O F P R O J E C T IO N S O F S U P P L Y O F G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN 1 9 6 5 W IT H C O M P A R A T IV E A C T U A L S F O R C A LEN D A R YEA R 1953 Items Population (in millions): Total.............................................................................................................................. \4 y e a n and over.............................................................................................. Total labor force (in millions)...................................................................... Armed Fo rce s.. ............................................................................................ Civilian labor f o r c e ................... ...................................................................... Employed, total......................................................................................... Agricultural.......................................................................................... .. Nonagricultural..................................................................................... P rivate........................................................................................................ Government..................................................................................... Unemployment........................................................................ ........................ Percentage of civilian labor force................................................. Average annual hours (private) Agricultural.............................................................................................................. Nonagricultural....................................................................................................... Output per man-hour (private) (1 9 5 3 dollars). Agricultural.................................................................................... ........................ Nonagricultural..................................................................................................... Actuals, 1953 Projected, 1965 159.6 116.5 67.0 3.5 63.5 61.9 6.7 55.2 49.3 5.9 1.6 2.5 1900 137.0 7 9 .0 3.0 76 .0 7 3 .0 5.5 67.5 60.0 7.5 3.0 4.0 2,46 5 2,0 4 0 2,240 1,655 $ 1 ,3 14 ^ J0 2 _ $1,865 $4 ,1 90 Potential gross national product (billions of 19 53 dollars): Agricultural................................................................................................................ Nonagricultural (private)............... .. Government........................................................................................................... $ 21.7 $3 1 1 .8 $ 31.4 $ 23.0 $ 4 66 0 $ 46.0 Total................................................................................................................... $3 6 4 .9 $5 35.0 SOURCES: Joint Committee on the Economic Report. United States Department of Commerce. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW It is noted by the Report that the latter projection is more than could be expected on the basis of past trends, but these are inflated to take into account the assumed effect of in creased leisure time, the larger proportion of retired workers, and the increase in educational expenses resulting from the expected increase in the number of children at school age. It could be noted also that the large increase in demand for consumer durables is based on the increase in population in age groups wherein people need such goods to furnish new houses. Total national demand for goods and services at 1953 prices — obtained by combining the projections of the major com ponents — is revealed by the Report as approximating . . $535 billion per year of which Government could account for $97 billion, business for $81 billion, and consumers for $357 billion.” In other words, from 1953 to 1965, government de mand as a percent of the total will decline from 23 percent to 18 percent. In contrast, business demand will increase from nearly 14 percent to 15 percent, and consumer expenditures will rise from 63 percent to 67 percent of total demand. 49 S U M M A R Y O F N A T IO N 'S E C O N O M IC B U D G E T F O R “ M A X IM U M " E C O N O M IC G R O W T H , A C T U A L C A L E N D A R Y E A R 1 9 53) E S T IM A T E D C A L E N D A R Y E A R 1 9 6 5 (Blllloniof1953dollars) Incomes from and expenditures for gross national product fo r S t a b iliz a t io n a t H ig h L e v e ls Estimated, calendar 1965 PERSONAL Income, total disposable..................................................................................... 250.1 38 0 Expendituresi Durable goods..................................................................................................... Nondurable goods............................................................................................. Services..................................................................................................................... 297 118.9 814 50 185 Total expenditures.. . . . . . . . ..................................... .. 122 230.1 357 Savings ( + ) ..................................................................................................... * . . . + 2 0 .0 +23 BUSINESS Incomesi Corporate undistributed p rofits........................................... .................. Capital consumption allowances........................................ Inventory valuation adjustment.................................................................. 8.9 27.2 — 1.0 48 Total Incomes................................................................................................... 35.1 ~60 Expenditures! Residential nonfarm construction.............................................................. Plant and equipment........................................................................................ Change In business Inventories................................................................... Net foreign Investment.................................................................................... 11.9 38.0 1.5 — 1.9 16 60 3 49,5 81 Total expenditures........................................................................................ F a c to rs M a k in g Actual, calendar 19531 Dissavings (— ) ........................................................................................................... — 14.4 12 0 2 —21 GOVERNMENT1 The Report indicates that “the comparison of estimates of demand and supply for 1965 suggests the possibility of a balanced economy at ‘maximum’ employment a decade hence.” On the other hand, problems relating to the changes necessary to achieve that balance and deliberate alterations in public and private policies to promote the growth in demand also are pointed out by a comparison of the demand and supply projections. Examples of the adjustments needed are suggested by the Report as: Incomes: Personal ta x and nontax paym ents....................................................... Business ta x and nontax liab ilities.......................... Contributions for social insurance................................. Less nongross national product payments........................................... 85.2 97 “ (1) A shift in the pattern of consumer spending and sav ing such as to reduce the ratio of personal savings to dispos able personal income from the recent rate of about 8 percent to about 6 percent in the face of some forces which may oper ate in the direction of a higher rate of perhaps 9 to 10 percent.. . . Savings ( + ) or dissavings (— ) ........................................................................ — 6.6 —2 Statistical discrepancy { + ) or (— ) ............................................................... + 1 .0 “ (2) The pressure of a rapidly growing population upon State and local governments for increases in traditional gov ernment services, such as schools, highways, hospitals, etc., will create a need for new means, new methods, new institu tional arrangements to enable State and local governments to meet these demands.” However, the Report also reveals two other possible adjust ments which could have a marked effect upon the projections. First, it is stated that “. . . a continuation of past trends is assumed toward shorter weekly hours and increased vacations and holidays. A greater reduction of annual hours of work per employee by the equivalent of perhaps two or three hours per week would reduce the potential output by between $20 to $30 billion.” Secondly, the Report indicates that . . the relationships between prices, wages, and profits might shift in ways not clear at present to contribute to generating demand sufficient Total Incomes................................................................................................... 3 6 .0 51.1 8.8 17.4 7 8 .5 Expendituresi Maior national security................................................................................... 52.0 Public construction, civilian............................................................................. 10.1 Schools............................................................................................................................... 1.7 Highways........................................................................................................... ..............3.2 Other public construction........................................................................................5.2 All other.................................................................................................................... 23.1 Total expenditures........................................................................................ Grand to tal....................................................................................................... 364.9 43 62 16 26 95 40 17 A 6 7 40 0 53 5 1 Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. * Includes Federal, State, and local government. SOURCESi Joint Committee on the Economic Report. United States Department of Commerce. to clear the market at ‘maximum* rates of economic growth. The rigidities introduced into the economy by the growth of large organized economic groups in business, labor, and agri culture might offer some obstacles to such adjustments.” In summary, the projections contained in this Report indi cate the great potential for economic progress in the United States during the next decade. Generally, the assumptions in the Report are those trends and conditions which will allow for maximum growth. However, it should be pointed out that a failure to fulfill any or all of these assumptions would alter considerably the end results. Thus, in evaluating the results, the user constantly should remember the conditions under which the Report was prepared. Nevertheless, the Report does present to the alert businessman a guidepost as to the direction and relative magnitude of the economic gains expected during the next 10 years. To the extent that it provides the business man with a firmer basis for arriving at management decisions, the Report is a valuable tooL MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 50 R E V IE W OF B U SIN E SS, AGRICU LTURAL, A N D F IN A N C IA L C O N D IT IO N S Consumer buying at District department stores during Feb ruary was 4 percent above the year-earlier level but 9 percent below the near peak of Janu ary. Consumer durable goods are showing a better sales record than the nondurables. Furniture stores in the District maintained a high volume of sales in February, registering a 24-percent increase over February 1954. Department store sales in the Eleventh District during February continued to exceed the year-earlier level for the sixth consecutive month, although on a seasonally adjusted basis, they were down sharply from the near peak in January. The dollar volume of sales was down 9 percent as compared with January but was 4 percent greater than in February 1954. Although department store sales during the latter part of February were at about the same level as a year ago, sales in the first 3 weeks of March showed a more than usual up turn for this time of year. As a result, sales for the first 11 weeks of 1955 were 11 percent higher than in the same period of 1954. Timely rains were received during the latter part of March, primarily in northern and central Texas and in the northeastern part of the District. Low tem peratures following the rains damaged fruit and The sales index for February, adjusted for seasonal varia vegetables in northern Texas counties. Green feed tion, was 125, compared with 121 for the same month in is available in the eastern third of the District; how 1954 and 135 in January. ever, supplemental feeding continues in west Texas and in New Mexico. Cash receipts from farm mar Sales of consumer durable goods continued at an unusually ketings in the District states in 1954 were 5 percent high level in the District in February, registering a year-tobelow those in 1953. Aggregate proved reserves of crude oil and nat ural gas liquids in the District states registered a small increase during 1954 and at the end of the year stood at an all-time high of 25,191,000,000 barrels, or 72 percent of the national total. Both crude production and refinery crude runs in the Dis trict rose moderately during the first part of March to reach record highs. Nonagricultural employment in the District states increased moderately during February, with gains occurring in nearly all industries. Retail trade employment, although showing a further seasonal de crease, experienced gains in certain segments. Manufacturing employment remained the same as in January and was slightly below the year-earlier level. year gain of 15 percent. Sales of major household appliances were 20 percent higher than in February a year ago; domestic floor coverings, 37 percent higher; and radios and television sets, 39 percent higher. These percentage increases reflect not only the high levels of sales this year but also the relatively poor sales of such items a year ago. Sales of nondurables dur ing February were less than 1 percent above a year earlier. Percentage increases of 5 percent in men’s and boys’ wear, 5 percent in small wares, and 2 percent in women’s and misses’ ready-to-wear apparel were nearly offset by a decrease of 5 percent in piece goods and household textiles and of 6 percent in women’s and misses’ ready-to-wear accessories. R E T A IL T R A D E S T A T IS T IC S (Percentage change) NET SALES STO CKS' Feb. 1955 from Feb. 1955 from The value of construction contract awards in the District during February rose 5 percent above Janu ary and 39 percent above February 1954. Residen tial awards were 71 percent above those of a year ago. During the 5 weeks ended March 23, earning as sets of the District's weekly reporting member banks decreased $55,772,000, or 1.5 percent, reflecting mainly decreases in business and agricultural bor rowings, loans to banks, and holdings of United States Government securities. Deposit trends were mixed, with demand deposits declining 1.6 percent and time deposits increasing 4.4 percent. Line of trade by area DEPARTMENT STORES Total Eleventh District............................. Corpus Christi........................................ Feb. 1954 Jan. 1955 2 mo. 1955 comp, with 2 mo. 1954 Feb. 1954 Jan. 1955 4 13 5 4 9 —2 —7 5 — 12 12 — 10 5 — 10 9 15 12 9 9 6 3 7 9 1 9 7 —3 8 —6 —3 —5 —3 9 12 11 12 11 11 5 9 2 24 65 12 38 —5 15 23 0 0 28 —3 2 13 3 —3 —8 21 37 19 33 6 15 10 8 0 — 18 13 12 4 — 12 —7 —2 4 —5 9 14 9 —1 —2 1 16 — 14 7 13 __ ___ — — — 2 2 —4 FURNITURE STORES Total Eleventh District........... , . . , San Antonio.......................... Shreveport, La................................... HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES Total Eleventh District....................... . 1 Stocks ot end of month. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW IN D E X E S O F D EP A R T M EN T ST O R E S A L E S A N D S T O C K S (1947-49 = 100) UNADJUSTED Area Feb. 1955 ADJUSTED1 Jan. 1955 Dec. 1954 Feb. 1954 Feb. 1955 Jan. 1955 Dec. 1954 Feb. 1954 107 110 122 225 226 251 98 102 110 125 126 143 135 138 154 134 135 149 121 120 140 115 121 125r 129p 128 133 128r SALES—Daily averag e STOCKS— End of month 1 Adjusted for seasonal variation, p— Preliminary, r— Revised. Department store instalment credit outstanding in the Dis trict at the end of February was 12 percent above a year ago although down seasonally 2 percent from the end of January. Charge accounts outstanding decreased 18 percent from January to February, a little more than the usual seasonal decline, but were 3 percent above a year earlier. Collections on charge accounts during the month, which were 8 percent above those in February 1954, amounted to 46 percent of the first-of-month balances. Cash, charge, and instalment sales in District department stores decreased sharply from January to February. Com pared with year-earlier figures, however, instalment sales rose 31 percent, while cash sales were down 2 percent and charge sales declined 1 percent. Department store inventories rose seasonally 9 percent during February and at the end of the month were 1 percent higher than a year earlier. The February adjusted stock index was 129 percent of the 1947-49 average, compared with an average of 131 for the preceding 6 months and 128 for Febru ary last year. Although orders outstanding declined 5 percent during the month, the total outstanding at the end of February was 13 percent above that of a year ago. 51 Recent rainfall will be beneficial to wheat in the Low Roll ing Plains, but the crop in the High Plains of Texas and New Mexico continues to suffer from lack of moisture. Warmer temperatures and strong winds during March caused further deterioration of wheat, necessitating emergency tillage in the High Plains area. Corn planting is nearing completion in much of the eastern third of the District, and early plantings are up to a stand as far north as the Red River. Planting of sorghums in the Coastal Bend of Texas has been completed, and much of the crop is already up to a good stand. Cotton seeding is almost completed in the Coastal Bend area, while planting is under way along the Upper Coast of Texas. In the Low Rolling Plains and southern High Plains, seedbed preparation for sorghums and cotton is almost complete. Vegetables in the commercial areas of Texas have made good progress in overcoming the effects of low temperatures in February. Warm weather in the past few weeks has been favorable for the rapid development of early spring-planted cantaloupes, sweet corn, tomatoes, and watermelons. Trans planting of tomatoes is well advanced in the Yoakum and Milano-Rockdale areas of the State. In most south-central and central Texas counties, planting of watermelons has been active. Irrigated onions are making good growth in south Texas, although rain is needed in the nonirrigated sections. Commercial acreage of early spring tomatoes in the Lower Valley of Texas, as of March 1, 1955, is indicated at 34,000 acres, 1,000 acres less than that harvested in 1954. The Texas early spring onion crop is indicated at 37,600 acres, or about 5 percent below the acreage harvested in 1954. The indicated acreage of early summer watermelons in District states is 12 percent greater than in 1954. Increases in 1955 are expected for Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma; Arizona growers in tend to plant fewer acres. The improvement in District furniture store sales which became apparent in the fall of last year was maintained through February. Total sales were unchanged from the January level but were 24 percent higher than in February 1954. Credit sales, with a 3-percent increase during Febru ary, continued to show a marked gain over the year-earlier level; cash sales were up 3 percent from the February 1954 volume. Furniture store inventories were up seasonally 4 percent from January but were about the same as a year ago. The harvest of Texas grapefruit and oranges is nearing completion. Early February frosts caused little damage to fruit, although many young trees were partially to totally defoliated and the 1955 bloom was delayed. Because of the severe freeze in Arizona from February 18 to 22, the forecast for 1955 grapefruit production in that State declined from 3,000,000 boxes to 2,000,000 boxes, and production estimates for Valencia oranges were lowered from 700,000 boxes to 600,000 boxes. Light to moderate rains were re ceived over the eastern third of the District during the latter part of February. In much of this same area, light and widely scattered showers fell during mid-March, but the moisture was dissipated largely by warm temperatures and strong winds. Additional precipi tation fell during the latter part of March, with the larger amounts occurring in central and north Texas and in the northeastern parts of the District. Except for a few localized showers, there was little or no precipitation in west Texas or in New Mexico. Low temperatures following the rains dam aged fruit and vegetables in northern Texas counties. Clovers, rescue grass, and small grains are making excellent growth over the eastern third of the District, and surplus L IV E S T O C K RECEIPTS (Number) FORT WORTH MARKET Class & Includes goats. SAN ANTONIO MARKET February 1955 February 1954 January 1955 February 1955 February 1954 January 1955 14,266 44 ,5 95 13,909 43,043 50 ,4 2 0 58,899 18,235 6 7 ,9 52 68,203 16,339 10,035 3,283 *7,392 21,133 10,924 2 9 ,6 8 2 20 ,6 3 6 2,59 5 *2 0 7 3 0 >10,070 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 52 C A S H R E C E IP T S F R O M F A R M M A R K E T IN G S (In thousands o f dollars) December Stale 1954 Arizona.................................. Louisiana............................... New Mexico....................... Oklahoma............................ T exas...................................... Total................................... $ 6 0 ,1 7 7 4 3 ,3 7 7 21 ,1 9 0 38 ,4 7 2 2 1 4 ,4 6 9 $ 3 77,6B 5 January— December 1953 1 9 5 *_____________ 1953 $ 78 ,8 1 9 5 8 ,3 8 7 23,181 44 ,4 5 0 2 2 7,215 $ 3 6 4,786 3 6 2,164 186,600 527,911 1,894,159 *4 3 2 ,0 5 2 *3 ,3 3 5 ,6 2 0 S 415,123 411,935 188,476 577,362 1,92 2,480 $3,5 15,37 6 SOURCE: United States Department of Agriculture. green feed is available in most of the area. In the eastern Plateau, Cross Timbers, and parts of the Low Rolling Plains of Texas, ranges and pastures are green, and the recent rains provided moisture needed to maintain development. Over the western half of Texas and in southeastern and southern New Mexico, heavy supplemental feeding continues, with little prospect for recovery of ranges until additional moisture is received. Goat shearing is nearing completion in Texas, and the spring movement of yearling lambs is under way. In south eastern New Mexico, sheep shearing is in progress, and early lambing and calving are occurring under favorable weather conditions. Total wool production in District states in 1954 is esti mated at 59,227,000 pounds, or 2 percent above production in 1953, according to the United States Department of Agricul ture. Increases were about 20 percent in Oklahoma and 4 percent in both Arizona and Texas. Wool production in New Mexico in 1954 was about 7 percent below that in 1953, while production in Louisiana remained unchanged. Cash receipts from wool in District states in 1954 were about 3 percent below those in 1953 because of lower average prices. Production of mohair in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona was larger in 1954 than in 1953, but cash receipts in 1954 were below those in the preceding year. In both the Nation and the District states, cash receipts from farm marketings in 1954 were 5 percent below those in 1953, according to the United States Department of Agricul ture. Decreases in District states were 12 percent in Arizona and Louisiana, about 9 percent in Oklahoma, approximately 2 percent in Texas, and 1 percent in New Mexico. National average price support levels have been set at 90 percent of parity for 1955 upland cotton and 75 percent for extra-long staple cotton, according to the Department of Agriculture. The minimum level of support for Middling %-inch cotton will be 31.70 cents per pound, gross weight, while the support price for extra-long staple cotton will be 55.20 cents per pound, net weight. Flaxseed and cottonseed will be supported at 65 percent of parity, compared with 70 percent during the past year. The national average support price for flaxseed will be $2.91 per bushel compared with $3.14 per bushel in 1954, and that for cottonseed, $46 per ton compared with $54 per ton for the previous year’s crop. During the 5 weeks ended March 23, total resources of the District’s i* s Ifin a n c e ; weekly reporting member banks de < clined $43,848,000 — or less than 1 ■ yt percent. The decline resulted pri marily from decreases of $23,640,000 in loans and discounts and $32,132,000 in total investments that were offset partially by a rise in cash assets. Changes in liabilities included a $63,882,000 decrease in demand deposits, a $32,774,000 in crease in time deposits, and a $17,203,000 reduction in other liabilities. /* v The largest decline in loans was the $21,486,000 decrease in borrowings of businesses and farmers. However, during most of the 5-week period, strong demands^ were evident on the part of sales finance companies, construction firms, and manufacturers of petroleum and related products while com modity dealers sharply reduced their borrowings. Other changes in loans included a $13,050,000 decrease in loans to banks and a rise of $13,856,000 in all other loans, which con sist mainly of consumer credits. The decrease in total investments was caused by the $39,289,000 decline in United States Government securities, which C O N D IT IO N S T A T IS T IC S O F A L L M E M B E R B A N K S E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e rv e D is tric t (In m illions of dollars) Feb. 24, 1954 Ja n . 26, 1955 Balances with banks in the United States................ Balances with banks in foreign countries0 ............... Cash items in process of collection............................. Other assets0 ........................................................., $3 ,1 2 0 2,4 0 0 457 898 132 1,048 2 394 160 $3 ,4 94 2,55 3 539 1,0 1 9 135 1,077 3 34 8 187 TOTAL ASSETS®................................................................. 8,611 LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL Demand deposits of banks............................................... Other demand deposits................................................ Time deposits................................................ t 967 5,9 5 5 1,01 7 1,093 6,3 6 9 1,161 Other liabilities®................... .. Total capital accounts®........................................................ 7,9 3 9 28 71 573 8 ,62 3 26 89 617 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL®....................... 8.611 9 ,3 5 5 Item Feb. 2 3 , 1955 ASSETS Loans and discounts............................................................... United States Government obligations..................... . . . . 2,50 5 F A R M C O M M O D IT Y P R IC E S T o p P ric e s P a id in L o c a l S o u th w e st M a rk e ts Commodity and market COTTON, Middling 15/16-inch, D a lla s .. . . WHEAT, No. 1 hard, Fort Worth......................... SORGHUM S, No. 2 yellow, Fort W o rth .. . . SLAUGHTER STEERS. Choice, Fort W o rth .. . SLAUGHTER CALVES, Choice, Fort W o rth ... STOCKER STEERS, Choice, Fort W o rth............ SLAUGHTER SPRING LAMBS, Choice, Unit lb. bu. bu. bu. cwt. cwt. cwt. cwt. Ctfl. cwt* lb . W eek ended Comparable Comparable Morch 23, week week 1955 last month last year $ .327 5 2.67 .97 1.7 6 % 2.63 17.00 25.00 22.00 22 .5 0 23 .5 0 .31 $ .33 7 0 2.74 1.00 1.80 271 17.75 26 .0 0 22 .0 0 2 3 .0 0 — .2 7 $ .34 1 5 27\Vi 1 .0 3 % 1.8 2 % 2 .98 2675 23 .0 0 20 .5 0 21 .0 0 25 .5 0 .2 4 Total deposits............................... ........................ e—-Estimated. 3355 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW C O N D IT IO N S T A T IS T IC S O F W E E K L Y R E P O R T IN G M EM B E R B A N K S IN L E A D IN G C IT IE S C H A N G E S IN F A C T O R S A F F E C T IN G M EM BER B A N K R ES E R V E B A L A N C E S E le v e n th F e d e ra l R e s e rv e D istric t Eleventh Federal Reserve District (In thousands o f d o llari] (In thousands o f dollars) March 23, 1955 Item March 24, 1954 Feb. 16, 1955 ASSETS Commercial, industrial, and agricultural lo a n s .... $ 1 ,4 2 1 ,2 8 0 $1,301,041 $1 ,4 42,76 6 Loans to brokers and dealers in securities................ 13,588 10,875 16,300 Other loans for purchasing or carrying securities. 103,981 77,851 104,880 17 4,338 133,580 173,229 1 0 ,1 55 14,509 23,205 455,571 3 9 9 ,2 7 7 441,715 Less reserves and unallocated charg e-offs.. 2,178,913 2 2,948 1,937,133 17,196 2 ,20 2,095 2,15 5,965 1,91 9,937 2,179,605 62,253 60,400 U. S. Treasury certificates o f indebtedness............... 47 ,15 0 U. S. Government bonds (inc. gtd. o b lig atio ns)... 273,655 867,499 255,214 Cash items in process of collection.................................. Balances with banks in the United S ta tes.................. Balances with banks in foreign countries.................... Currency and coin.................................................... ................ Reserves with Federal Reserve Bank............................. 1,505,771 3 6 3,388 4 5 2,280 1,635 4 4 ,8 28 5 8 9,013 124,975 1,446,166 2 9 4,618 4 4 6 ,5 3 4 1,044 4 6 ,3 7 8 55 7,544 9 7 ,1 28 1,537,903 362,970 446,251 1,576 43 ,1 96 TOTAL ASSETS................................................................. 5,23 7,855 4 ,8 0 9 ,3 4 9 5,281,703 flanks in the United S ta te s .......................... ................ Certified and officers' checks, e t c ............................ Time deposits Individuals, partnerships, and corporations.. . . Postal savings............................... ........................ .. States and polifrcal subdivisions................................. Banks in the U. S. and foreign countries............... 71 ,61 9 283,434 874,393 248,057 5 7 4 ,4 2 7 135,775 2 ,7 8 7 ,8 8 9 84,525 191,919 875,191 16,100 64,583 2 ,5 4 2 ,2 7 0 117,663 19 9,887 8 2 7 ,9 4 9 8,711 5 5 ,7 85 2,81 8,139 93,490 176,220 903,384 15,666 77 ,1 90 4 ,0 2 0 ,2 0 7 3,75 2,265 4,08 4,089 65 3,792 13,361 452 54 0,740 9,812 45 0 125,912 2,083 63 5,229 13,362 452 94,934 1,113 109,657 602 CHANGE1 5 weeks ended March 2 3 ,1 9 5 5 Dec. 29, 1 9 5 4 March 23, 1955 — $30,632 — 60,979 + 99,251 + 8,047 + 34 — $34,158 — 74,536 + 51,762 + 43,687 — 638 + $ 1 6 ,1 1 7 — $10,480 FACTORS . Interdistricf commercial and financial transactions.. . . . Currency transactions.................................................................... 22,490 138,851 16 9,838 161,190 77 2 ,2 0 2 2 0 4,085 LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL Demand deposits Individuals, partnerships, and corporations.. . . 53 77 7 ,8 6 4 6 7 8,997 7 4 5,090 Total deposits............................................................... Bills payable, rediscounts, e t c .. . ..................................... All other liabilities................................................... .. Total capital accounts............................................. 4 ^ 9 8 ,0 7 1 17,050 60,101 36 2,633 4 ,4 3 1 ,2 6 2 0 47 ,5 24 3 3 0,563 4,82 9,179 12,700 77 ,3 04 36 2,520 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL....................... 5 ,2 3 7 ,8 5 5 4,8 0 9 ,3 4 9 5 ,28 1,703 more than offset the increase of $7,157,000 in other invest ments. Although the banks increased their holdings of Treas ury bills $1,853,000, they liquidated certificates in the amount of $24,469,000 and effected moderate reductions in holdings of notes and bonds. The decline of $63,882,000 in demand deposits reflected primarily reductions of $30,250,000 in demand deposits of individuals and businesses and $28,193,000 in domestic inter bank funds. Public funds increased on balance, since the G R O S S D E M A N D A N D T IM E D E P O S IT S O F M E M B E R B A N K S RESERVE BALANCES March 23, 19 55...................................... February 16, 1 9 5 5 ............................... $996,031 979,914 + $ 16,117 1 Sign of change indicates effect on reserve balances. $8,965,000 withdrawal of United States Government deposits was more than offset by an increase of $15,699,000 in funds of states and political subdivisions. During the 5 weeks ended March 23, member bank reserve balances at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas increased $16,117,000 to total $996,031,000. Treasury operations added $99,251,000, currency transactions contributed $8,047,000, and changes in “other deposits” and “other Federal Reserve accounts” increased balances $430,000. Partially offsetting these factors were a $60,979,000 flow of funds out of the Dis trict and a $30,632,000 decline in local Federal Reserve credit. The $10,480,000 decrease in member bank reserve balances since the beginning of the year contrasts with a reduction of $59,765,000 during the comparable 1954 period. Gross demand deposits of District member banks averaged $7,329,237,000 in February, reflecting a 3.5-percent seasonal decline from January but a 6.4-percent increase over Febru ary 1954. Time deposits, at an all-time high of $1,170,172,000, were up 1.3 percent from January and 16.0 percent from a year earlier. The increase for the month in average time de posits, reflecting the continued high level of savings in the Southwest, was divided almost equally between reserve city and country banks. Debits to demand deposit accounts at banks in 24 cities in the District totaled $6,087,218,000 in February. Although 12 percent above February 1954, total debits for the month were 14 percent below those in January 1955, mainly because of NEW PAR BANK E le v e n th F e d e r a l R e s e rv e D is tric t (Averages of d a ily figures. In thousands of dollars) COMBINED TOTAL Date Feb. 1 9 5 3 . . . , Feb. 1 9 5 4 . . . . Oct. 1 9 54 ........... Nov. 1 9 5 4 . . . . Dec. 1 9 5 4 . . . , Jan. 1 9 55........... Feb. 1 9 5 5 . . . . Gross demand Time RESERVE CITY BANKS Gross demand Time COUNTRY BANKS Gross demand Time $ 6 ,8 5 0 ,1 5 2 $ 8 0 8 ,4 2 9 $ 3 ,2 2 3 ,3 2 5 $433,931 $ 3 ,6 2 6 ,8 2 7 $ 3 74,49 8 3 ,6 0 8 ,8 8 6 4 4 3,108 6 ,8 8 6 ,8 4 7 3,27 7,961 5 6 5,389 1,0 0 8 ,4 9 7 3 ,6 6 8 ,7 8 2 4 8 6,805 7 ,2 5 9 ,9 1 6 1 ,1 0 9 ,3 7 4 3 ,5 9 1 ,1 3 4 6 2 2,569 3 ,8 1 4 ,0 2 5 4 9 1 ,7 5 7 7 ,4 6 4 ,3 7 9 3 ,6 5 0 ,3 5 4 6 3 5,036 1 ,12 6,793 3 ,8 6 4 7 1 4 5 0 2 ,4 4 8 7 ,5 5 1 ,8 9 2 1,1 3 1 ,9 9 6 3 ,6 8 7 ,1 7 8 6 2 9,548 3 ,9 1 5 ,1 4 4 5 1 0,364 7 ,5 9 4 ,9 5 2 1 ,1 5 5 ,1 7 8 3,6 7 9 ,8 0 8 6 4 4,814 3 ,8 2 4 ,6 3 8 5 1 7 ,3 6 4 7 ,3 2 9 ,2 3 7 1 ,1 7 0 ,1 7 2 3 ,5 0 4 ,5 9 9 6 5 2 ,8 0 8 The Shreveport Bank & Trust Company, Shreveport, Louisiana, an insured, nonmember bank located in the territory served by the Head Office of the Federal Re serve Bank of Dallas, was added to the Par List on its opening date, March 23,1955. The officers are: Arthur N. Sample, Jr., Chairman of the Board; Ira E. Moss, President; W. O. Lacy, Vice President; and M. V. Dark, Cashier. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 54 B A N K DEBITS, E N D -O F -M O N T H D E P O SIT S A N D A N N U A L RATE O F T U R N O V E R O F D EP O SIT S (Amount* tn thouiandl of dollars) DEBITS’ DEPOSITS’ Percentage change from February 1955 City ARIZONA Tucson...................................... $ LOUISIANA Monro...................................... Shreveport........................... NEW MEXICO Roswell................................... TEAWIene................................... Amarillo................................. Austin...................................... Beaumont.............................. Corpus Chrlstl..................... Corsicana............................. D allas...................................... El Paso................................... fo rtW o rth .......................... Galveston............................. Houston.................................. Laredo................................... lubbock................................. Port Arthur........................... San Angelo......................... San Antonio........................ Texarkana*.......................... T yler........................................ W aco ...................................... Wichita Fall......................... Total— 24 cities..................... Feb. 1954 Annual rate of turnover Ja n . 1955 Feb. 2 8 , 1955 % Feb. Feb. 1955 1954 Jan. 1955 1 1 8,504 25 — 11 94722 15.1 13.2 17.3 4 5 ,9 9 8 2 1 1,422 12 13 — 17 — 11 4 3 ,8 7 5 199,955 12.6 13.1 11.4 13.4 14.4 15.2 3 —9 3 0 ,2 9 0 10.2 10.1 10.9 12 —8 18 —8 16 — 11 2 —7 13 — 16 3 — 19 16 — 20 12 —8 11 — 15 1 — 10 8 —9 — 1 — 11 3 4 — 25 18 —2 11 —8 12 — 12 \ —8 18 —4 5 — 13 7 — 13 40 ,7 1 0 109,503 112,904 1 0 2,247 1 1 0 ,5 5 8 2 1 ,9 02 9 4 3 ,9 4 2 132,149 3 5 2,952 49 ,2 4 9 1 ,19 5,566 19 ,0 76 103,781 4 0 ,1 9 7 45 ,7 3 2 340,191 17,231 54 ,4 9 0 7 0 ,4 2 4 1 0 5,879 11.4 14.8 13.1 13.1 167 7.1 217 19.4 17.4 12.7 1 6 .8 11.4 15.0 14.5 10.1 14.2 1 1 .4 13.3 13.3 9.6 11.9 14.3 13.0 13.0 1 5 .8 7 .0 2 0 .0 18.4 14.8 10.8 1 6 .9 12.1 13.3 13.0 9.2 13.8 10.9 11J 13.4 9.4 12.7 14.0 14.4 13.8 1 9 .0 8.5 2 6 .0 20.8 20.4 14.3 1 8 .4 13.0 19.1 15.0 10.8 16.1 12.1 13.8 15.1 10.8 147 14.0 19.1 25 ,7 4 4 58 ,9 1 4 137,954 124,284 111,172 1 5 2,932 13,073 1 ,75 4,200 2 1 5,233 5 1 3 ,8 5 0 7 2 ,8 1 2 1,650,811 18,602 13 3,533 49,541 38 ,8 1 8 397,591 16 ,5 75 43773 7 7 ,5 2 7 84,351 * 4 ,0 8 7 ,2 1 8 12 — 14 $4 ,3 9 9 ,8 0 7 ity in payment of June 15 income taxes. Subscriptions of banks were limited to an amount not exceeding 50 percent of combined capital stock, surplus, and undivided profits as of December 31, 1954, and were payable by credit to the Treasury Tax and Loan Account. Investors in the Eleventh District subscribed to $247,752,000 and were allotted $101,954,000 of the securities. Estimated proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids in the four producing District states — Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas — rose to a new high dur ing 1954, but the increase was the smallest since at least 1947. Total reserves in these states on December 31,1954, amounted to 25,191,000,000 barrels, or 160,000,000 barrels higher than a year earlier. Proved reserves in the District comprised 72 percent of the national total. C R U D E O IL ) E S T IM A T E D P R O V E D R E S E R V E S (In m illions of barrels o f 42 U. S . gallons) 1954 New supplies added l Debits to demand deposit accounts of Individuals, partnerships, and corporations and of states and political subdivisions. * Demand deposit accounts of Individuals, partnerships, and corporations and o f states and political subdivisions. * These figures include only one bank in Texarkana, Texas. Total debits for all banks In Texarkana, Texas-Arkansas, including two bonks located In the Eighth District, amounted to $ 3 2 ,5 4 6 ,0 0 0 fo r the month o f February 1955. the smaller number of business days in February. The an nual rate of deposit turnover declined from 19.1 in January to 16.7 in February but was still above the 16.0 rate estab lished a year earlier. Between February 15 and March 15, earning assets of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas declined $19,466,000, pri marily as a result of an $11,200,000 decrease in discounts for member banks and a $7,639,000 reduction in holdings of United States Government securities. Gold certificate reserves decreased $64,082,000, or 7.6 percent, reflecting the move ment of funds out of the Eleventh District. Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation declined $2,918,000 during the period to total $717,983,000 but were $9,226,000 above the year-earlier amount. On March 22 the Treasury accepted cash subscriptions for $3,000,000,000 of the 1%-percent Tax Anticipation certifi cates dated April 1 and maturing June 22, 1955. The certifi cates will be receivable at par plus accrued interest to matur- Area Total Eleventh District sta te s... United States. • . . Reserves Dec. 31, 1953 Extensions and revisions Discoveries of new fields and new pools Production Reserves Dec. 31 Change In reserves 2760 815 1,752 14,999 276 56 354 680 153 8 33 25 5 227 73 184 952 2,96 2 806 1,955 14,982 202 —9 203 -1 7 2 0 ,3 25 28 ,9 45 1,366 2,2 8 7 449 586 1,43 5 2,2 5 7 20,705 29,561 37 9 61 6 1 Includes offshore reserves. NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to totoi, due to rounding. SOURCE: American Petroleum Institute. An appreciable downward revision in estimated proved reserves of natural gas liquids in Texas was an important factor limiting the increase in total proved reserves in the District states in 1954, Estimated proved reserves of crude oil alone in the District increased 379,000,000 barrels during 1954 to 20,705,000,000 barrels. The rise in crude reserves was accounted for by Louisiana and Oklahoma, as Texas and New Mexico showed small decreases. N A T U R A L G A S L IQ U ID S : E S T IM A T E D P R O V E D RESERVES (In m illions of barrels o f 42 U. S . gallons) 1954 New supplies added C O N D IT IO N O F T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F D A L L A S Area (In thousands o f dollars) Item . U . S . Government securities.......................................... . , Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation.. . . . March 15, 1955 March 15, 1954 $779,02 6 70 0 5,01 3 9 2 7,519 933,232 9 8 1 ,4 1 3 7 1 7 ,9 8 3 $ 7 8 7 ,0 8 5 10,175 705 9 7 6,484 9 8 7,364 1 ,01 6,009 708757 Feb. 15, 1955 $ 8 4 3,108 11,900 5,6 4 0 9 3 5,158 9 5 2 ,6 9 8 1,02 2,682 720,901 Total Eleventh District sta te s... United S t a te s .. . , Reserves Dec. 3 1 , 1953 Extensions and revisions Discoveries of new fields and new pools Production R e ttn e s Dec. 31 Change in reserves 813 321 304 3,2 6 7 " 87 29 51 ~~221 19 4 7 50 ------ 35 13 28 169 ------ 884 340 334 2 ,9 2 6 71 19 30 — 33 9 4,70 5 5,43 8 — 54 21 79 87 245 301 4,4 8 6 5,24 4 — 21 9 — 193 1 includes offshore reserves. NOTE: Detail will not necessarily add to total, due to rounding. SOURCE: American G a s Association. MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW N A T U R A L G A S : E S T IM A T E D P R O V E D R E S E R V E S (In billions of cubic feet— 14 65 psia, at 60° F) 1954 New supplies added Net ExDiscoveries change of new Reserves tensions in under^ Dec. 31, and fields and ground revisions new pools storage 1953 Area Louisiana1............ New M exico.. . Net pro duction Reserves Dec. 31 Change in reserves 34 ,4 59 17,522 12,228 Texas1.................... 10 6,530 2,59 5 — 331 772 1,27 8 1,253 550 247 2,0 7 9 0 — 27 7 6 1,507 474 858 4,763 36 ,8 00 17,241 12,396 105,129 2,341 — 282 168 — 1,401 Total Eleventh District states. 1 7 0,739 United S ta te s .. 2 1 1 ,4 4 7 4 ,3 1 4 4,6 3 2 4,1 2 8 4,9 6 7 — 14 91 7,6 0 2 9,42 7 171,566 211,711 827 264 1 Includes offshore reserves. NOTEi Detail will not necessarily add to total, due to rounding. SOURCE: American Gas Association. Proved recoverable reserves of natural gas in District states, after registering marked gains each year since the end of World War II, showed only a small rise during 1954. Re serves at the end of the year totaled 171,566 billion cubic feet, or about 800 billion cubic feet more than at the end of the preceding year. As was the case for oil, an appreciable in crease in Louisiana’s reserves was offset substantially by de clines in reserves in New Mexico and Texas. Total proved reserves of natural gas in the District states constituted 81 percent of such reserves in the Nation in 1954. Crude oil production in the District, continuing the rising trend which has prevailed since November, reached an alltime high during the first part of March with a daily average of 3,303,000 barrels, or about 5,000 barrels higher than the previous record of December 1952. At this level, District production was 43,000 barrels higher than in February and 213,000 barrels higher than in March a year ago. Meanwhile, production in the Nation set a new record for the third suc cessive month, averaging 6,842,000 barrels per day, or 83,000 barrels above the February average and 335,000 barrels above March 1954. In April the District’s daily average crude production ap pears likely to show a small decline, as Texas oil allowables have been reduced about 59,700 barrels from the mid-March level. Part of this decrease, however, may be offset by pro duction from new wells completed; moreover, Louisiana’s April allowables have been raised slightly to take care of new production. 55 Refinery crude runs in the District during the first part of March rose moderately to a new all-time high, but in the Nation, runs declined somewhat from the record February level. District runs were 213,000 barrels per day higher than the March 1954 average, and runs in the Nation’s refineries were 549,000 barrels higher. Crude stocks in the Nation registered little change during February and then increased moderately during the first few weeks of March. Except for gasoline, stocks of refined prod ucts were in a fairly satisfactory position at the middle of March. Despite reductions in refiners’ gasoline yields, gaso line stocks on March 18 were at an all-time peak of 184,000,000 barrels, which is 4 percent above the very high level of a year earlier and is 14 percent higher than 2 years earlier. Nonagricultural employment in the District states during February increased 10,000 over January to reach a total of 3,788,500, which is 51,900 more than in February 1954. Gains occurred in nearly all District industries, but the larg est proportion was accounted for by mining, construction, finance, and government. Retail trade employment, although showing a further seasonal decrease, experienced gains in certain segments, such as automobile distribution and filling stations. Manufacturing employment was unchanged, with the February total showing 696,700, which is slightly below the year-earlier level. Gains occurred in fabricated metals, non electrical machinery, apparel, and printing and publishing industries. The value of construction contracts awarded in the District during February totaled $132,860,000, or nearly 5 percent above the January total. The most important factor in the February volume of construction was residential awards, which were 59 percent above January and 71 percent above February 1954. Other awards, while 8 percent above their year-earlier level, decreased 32 percent from the preceding month. N O N A G R IC U L T U R A L E M P L O Y M E N T F iv e S o u th w e ste rn S ta te s1 C R U D E O I L : D A IL Y A V E R A G E P R O D U C T IO N (In thousands o f barrels) Type of employment Change from Area February 19551 e l e v e n t h d is t r ic t ................. February 1 9 54s January 19 5 5 1 February 1954 January 1955 2 ,99 2.5 2,680.1 588.1 1 ,0 1 8 7 26 6.9 25 2 .0 4 2 .9 1397 87 3.0 577 2 0 .9 — 6.0 — 267 18.3 2.6 — 286.5 - 3 .3 .8 47 4 .8 3 .6 112.9 379.8 66.8 93.5 8 6 .0 81 9.8 2 1 7 .7 109.6 83.0 762.1 196.8 115.6 3 ,2 3 2 7 2 .91 3.8 62 8.4 1.444.9 240.2 85.2 815.1 21 2.9 106.0 iuo.u OUTSIDE ELEVENTH DISTRICT. 3,499.1 UNITED STATES................. 6,758.5 6,378.7 3,432.3 6,665.0 T exas............. Gulf Coast........................... West T e x a s ........................ Panhandle.................................. Rest of State............................ m uS * astern New M e x ic o .. Northern Louisiana..................... Louisiana...... lUy.O 3,386.2 uo.o ..m dUURCES:*1U Esnt-itim ateSd rosm A r.... icoafnM Pin eterso.le-umInstitutew eeklyreports. " ed tafte Bu reaeu Percent change Feb. 1955 from Number of persons Total nonagricultural wage and salary w o rk e rs.. Nonmanufacturing..................... Mining......................................... Construction............................. Transportation and public u tilitie s .* * .'....................... Feb. 1954 Jan . 1955 2 3 0,600 2 5 2,300 3 7 7 8 ,5 0 0 696700 3,08 1,800 23 2,400 24 8,300 — .2 1.8 1.4 1.8 .3 0 .3 .6 3.4 3 9 5,100 952700 15 1,800 4 3 2,600 6 2 3,500 3 8 4,900 9 7 5,000 15 6,700 4 3 9,600 6 4 4,900 — 2.9 17 4.2 1.6 4.4 — .3 — .6 .9 — .0 3 .9 February 1955e February 195 4r 3 7 8 8 ,5 0 0 696,700 3,09 1,800 233.800 2 5 6.800 3 7 3 6 ,6 0 0 698,000 38 3.800 96 8,900 158,100 4 3 9,500 65 1,000 ------, ^rliona, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texai. e—Estimated. SO URCES:S pelo taan gken sa.llas. Fta edte eraelm R seyrm veenB ocfieD January 1955 MONTHLY BUSINESS REVIEW 56 VA LU E O F C O N S T R U C T IO N C O N T R A C T S A W A R D E D D O M E S T IC C O N S U M P T IO N A N D S T O C K S O F C O T T O N (In thousands of dollars) (Bales) August—January January-—February Area and type February 1955p February 1954 January 1955 ELEVENTH D IS T R IC T .... $ 132,860 $ 95 ,4 6 6 Residential........................ 81 ,1 48 4 7 ,4 6 7 All other............................. 51 ,7 12 4 7 ,9 9 9 UNITED STATES1................ 1,581,143 1,22 1,260 Residential........................ 7 4 4,102 5 0 8,773 All other............................. 837,041 7 1 2 ,4 8 7 $ 1954 1955p 126,872 $ 25 9,732 132,244 51 ,0 96 127,488 7 5 ,7 7 6 1,504,450 3 ,085,593 690,355 1,434,457 814,095 1,65 1,136 ; 187,373 9 6 ,9 47 90 ,4 26 2 ,37 3,247 9 7 1,255 1,40 1,992 January 19551 Area January 1954 CONSUMPTION U. S. mills................. . . . . Daily average 7 1 1 ,2 8 6 U .S . mills.................. STO CKS, U. S.— End of period Consuming establishments. 1,80 1,753 Public storage and compresses..............._____ 13,471,230 1 37 states east of the Rocky Mountains, p— Preliminary. SOURCE: p. W . Dodge Corporation. During the first 2 months of 1955, the value of construction contract awards in the District was up 37 percent from the same period in 1954, while residential awards rose 36 per cent and all other awards gained 41 percent. In the Nation, total awards during January and February increased 30 per cent over last year; residential awards, 48 percent; and all other awards, 18 percent. The record level of home building has caused the Dallas Office of the Federal Housing Administration to suspend tem porarily the making of loan commitments on speculative housing until a study of the local situation is made. Residen tial construction, however, will not be affected immediately, as firm commitments already obtained by builders will take B U IL D IN G PERM ITS This season Last season 1954* 11,528 6 7 8,472 73 ,1 7 8 11,465 6 8,183 8 0 1 7 4 8 4,40 6,092 4,42 1,670 576 33 ,9 23 459 32 ,0 7 0 1 ,74 4,683 1,671,745 529 3 4,222 567 3 4 ,3 43 — — — 12,089,993 13,850,756 1 Four weeks ended January 29. 3 Five weeks ended January 1. SOURCE: United States Bureau of the Census. care of construction activity for several months. The suspen sion does not apply to commitments on houses which are not built for speculative purposes. The east Texas economy is receiving a considerable boost from the rapid industrialization and manufacturing construc tion taking place at Tyler. In recent weeks one company has announced the beginning of construction on a $1,000,000 plant for the building of prefabricated houses, and another company is planning to construct a $15,000,000 plant to manufacture air-conditioning and heating equipment. At least two other industries are constructing or recently have completed construction of large manufacturing plants or office buildings in Tyler. 2 months 1955 City February 19 55 ■1 ■ Number Valuation Percentage change in valuation from ———— — Feb. Ja n . 1954 1955 Number LOUISIANA S h r e v e p o r t.... 4 1 7 $ 1,67 9,713 17 TEXAS Abilene.................. 161 2 ,1 8 7 ,9 5 6 99 Amarillo................ 20 3 2 ,0 7 1 ,8 2 0 149 Austin............... 29 2 2 ,82 4,250 — 19 Beaumont............ 25 7 7 9 9 ,0 2 9 67 Corpus C h risti.. 39 7 1,94 1,452 — 2 Dallas.................... 2,16 3 1 9 ,4 59,18 5 117 El Paso.................. 537 3 ,4 0 4 ,7 0 5 183 Fort W o r t h .... 813 5 ,4 1 5 ,0 2 0 55 Galveston............ 108 2 0 0,285 89 Houston................. 1,102 10 ,7 6 0 ,8 4 6 — 1 Lubbock................ 261 1,88 5,600 — 41 Port A r t h u r .... 141 6 8 8,343 174 San A n to n io ... 1,882 5 ,5 8 7 .0 0 2 70 W aco ..................... 262 1,318,301 44 Wichita F a lls ... 145 1,08 3,325 16 Total— 16 c it ie s .. 9,141 $ 6 1 ,306 ,8 32 44 —3 796 116 13 —5 27 — 38 49 33 73 32 4 — 25 97 —2 — 19 30 19 Percentage change in valuation from 2 months Valuation 1954 $ C O TT O N SEED A N D C O T T O N SEE D PRO DU CTS 3 ,4 1 0 ,0 2 9 12 Item 29 0 476 543 52 9 977 4 ,2 6 7 941 1,451 198 2,0 7 4 476 23 8 3,381 46 5 26 5 3 ,2 0 0 ,3 7 4 3 ,89 8,700 5 ,80 0,160 1,426,936 5,094,831 32 ,5 1 2 ,6 6 8 5 ,96 7,950 8 ,53 6,730 35 1,915 21 ,1 3 0 ,0 7 2 4 ,3 9 1 ,1 5 9 1,03 7,510 11 ,2 7 2 ,7 5 3 2 ,9 5 2 ,0 4 5 1,916,594 105 112 20 — 30 16 66 96 43 29 —6 — 17 195 87 32 47 COTTONSEED (tons) Received a t mills.............................. Crushed.................................................. 17 ,3 67 $ 1 12,90 0,426 COTTONSEED PRODUCTS Production Crude oil (thousand pounds). Hulls (tons)...................................... Linters (running b ales)............. Stocks, end of period Crude oil (thousand pounds). Cake and meal (tons).............. Hulls (tons)...................................... TEXAS UNITED STATES August 1 to January 31 August 1 to January 31 This season Last season This season Last season 1,404,251 1,00 0,542 5 4 7,575 1,59 8,456 96 2,015 7 2 4 ,5 7 2 4,94 3,549 3 ,3 3 1 ,5 5 9 1,84 1,597 5 ,9 0 4 ,2 7 3 3 ,66 2,146 2 ,39 0,245 3 3 1 ,7 4 6 4 7 0 ,0 6 5 2 2 7 ,1 5 6 2 8 8 ,9 0 8 3 1 1,616 4 6 2 ,3 8 7 2 1 7,117 2 8 2 ,8 3 5 1,07 7,034 1,619,683 7 1 3 ,7 4 4 1 ,07 9,397 1,183,351 1 ,73 6,599 8 0 2 ,9 7 0 1,16 1,695 15,425 45 ,3 83 2 0 ,3 09 92 ,8 40 24 ,4 1 0 32 ,2 59 27 ,1 3 7 47 ,3 6 6 7 8 ,6 4 5 2 4 2,133 78 ,0 1 5 3 8 9,254 1 0 8 ,8 8 9 109,229 6 4 ,7 3 7 2 1 6 ,7 2 8 34 SOURCE: United States Bureau of the Census. This document contains internal or confidential information and has been removed. Author(s): Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Title: Extract from the Minutes of the Meeting of the Board of Directors of the Houston Branch of the F Date: March 21, 1933 Page Numbers: 1-5 This document contains internal or confidential information and has been removed. Author(s): Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Title: Items Date: November 1954 Page Numbers: 1-12