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The Papers of Charles Hamlin (mss24661) 360_11_001- Hamlin, Charles S., Scrap Book — Volume 174, FRBoard Members 205.001 - Hqmlin Charles S Scrap Book - Volume 174 FRBosrd Members CONFIDENTIAL (FR.) BOARD OF GOVERNORS 111 • OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Office Correspondence To The Files From Mr. Coe Dee July 17, 1941 Subject: Ive?' After correspondence with Mrs. Hamlin (see letters of May 25 and June 4, 1941) the items attached hereto and listed below, because of their possible confidential character, were taken from Volume 174 of Mr. Hamlin's scrap book and placed in the Board's files: VOLUME 114 Page 53 Earnings & Expenses, F.R. Banks. Page 118 Earnings and Expenses of F.R. Banks. Page 112 Open Market Investment Committee Report. Page 133 Memo to Governors' Conference from J. H. Case re Finance Companies Specializing in Bank Stock Investments. Page 135 Report of the Committee on Bank and Public Relations to the Agents' Conference - November 1927. • EARYIYGS AYD EXP77SES OF FEDERAL RE3EP.77 DA7KS Se-otember 1927. Total ePrnings of the Federal reserve banks were about $200,000 more thPn in August though earnings were accrued for one day less in Sentember. Earnings from discounted bills declined $85,000 but this decrease was more than offset by an increase of $203,000 in earnings from nurchased bills and U. S. securities and of $80,000 in miscellaneous earnings. Current exoenses (exclusive of cost of currency) aggregateC, $2,096,000 as comlpared with $2,167,000 in the month nreceding and $2,111,000 in September 1926. Tine months ending September 30, 1927. During the nine months ending Se-:tember 30 earnings totaled $31,029,000, as courpared with ,34,393,000 last year and $29,293,000 for the corresponding period in 1925. Current exnenses (exclusive of cost of Federal reserve currency) amounted to $19,280,000 during the nine-month )eriod, an increase of $51,000 over the corres-ponding neriod. last year. After -providing for all current ex:Jense and dividend requirements, the Federal reserve banks on September 30 had a balance of $4,583,000 available for depreciation allowances, sur, 21us and franchise taxes, as com-pP.red with a balance of $8,468,00c at the end of September 1926. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmone., whose earnings have been less than expense and dividend requirements on each month-end since the first of the.year, retorts on Se7tember 30 a balance of $71,899 available for depreciation allowances, sur-olus, franchise tax, etc., after Tyrovirling for all current expense and dividend requirements. VOLUME 174 PAGE 53 (St.5529a) MR. &no .. 0 J. 0 J. I) EIT:L.TLIGS 'ot 1:or .r.l.olication 7:onth -,;;arninFs : II Fran T- From par,rom chased bills othur ond U.S. counted -,curces securities bills 4IVtoh 7ew Zork Cleve12.A. of EXTE.:2I S OF st. 5529 . TT:DM:Ea 1927. , S: 3 R...; 144.44t Year 1927 September 34_2.1 1 Balanc availablo for ratc Current expenses Current DividJnds aoprociation allowCurrent of c'urent net ancos, uarplus nct uarn- accrued oarn1nLs on net cost Total iranchiso tax, Jtc. to avora&) ings to earninf_p I,f paid-in capital Sept. 30 Sept. 30 On Sept. 30 On Av).L.31 c=ency Per cent • 958 .1;409429 $174,829 157,842 so9,421 536,977 236,577 193,6°5 LS4,375 464,318 3.3 51,0,530 469,656 14._ 151,304 157,000 109,024 10.0 819,329 ,2 502,75' 334,3,92 197,318 213,781 116,111 10.1 1,124,187 623,261 454,510 223,Lao 105,392 113,090 110,714 21.6 350,362 278,46-3 *7,5711 -24,7oo !2,40S 121,508 403,70"' 707,744 93,790 1,olo,":55 120,1411 11,352 26,261 101,502 190,242 43,14e 124,304 21,518 Richmond 5:3 2,537,o5o 1,727,S2(2, Thnta 93,9,9 56,147 34,3oo S1,137 93,842 90,594 21.4 679,59 22s',74o 335,843 uhicaf.-.o 9s,5Z3 273,0d,; 79,35 2190,18 316,021 135,019 0 r _; • 1,523,618 763,136 707,0)3 10,j,647 18,307 206,905 109,872 111,117 97,738 22.5 677,371 2370332 St. Louis 11V 439,969 6o,00l 47,299 109,307 244,396 209,71-1 297,359 192,10 105,176 79,129 1,146,o96 407,309 73,739 67.6,85J nenpolis 11!,0,40 01,006 15,825 111,862 03,741 84,148 27,714 11.2 195,5&9 135,5J Kansns City 32,77o 117,953 37,951 186,674 126,616 132,921 55,753 16.1 433,7°3 Dnllas 34,1',72 106,997 17,b0L; 159,277 103,198 111,S53 47A-24 13. -) 111,,JJ3 .3 152,2(2 34,814 30J,770 10q rw)6 200,657 lo ,113 14.2 1,25,J,j09 1,343,) 5 2,101:,934 1,9)9,43 .,095,6,7 2,244,392 2 2,136,765 2,320,342 2,111,405 2,196,113 1,432,22 1,157,503 1,734,871 13.3 io,360,503 5,73o,359 4,50es,2o4 J,do9,917 17.1 13,93°,938 5,462,5),S 3,463,372 (,352,298 '02n: Sept. 1927 7 ) kag. 19' 6e'Jt. 1S).06 1,675,743 Or• TIO7'S - 11, 1927. Oal.OET,-_: 3,676,620 3,477,612,5 3,930,984 *Deficit. EARNINGS AND EXPEMES OF FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS October 1927. Total earni2cs of the Federal reserve banks were $15,000 less than in September thow.;11 earnings were accrued for one day more in October. Earnings from purchased bills increased $174,000, from U. S. securities $65,000, and from discounted bills $17,000, but these increases were more than offset by a decrease of $271,000 in miscellaneous earnings. The decrease in miscellaneous earnings was due to losses on U. S. securities sold and to a decrease in earnings on transactions with foreign banks. Current expenses (exclusive of cost of Federal reserve currency) aggregated $2,156,000 as compared with $2,096,000 in the month preceding and $2,133,000 in October 1926. Ten months ending October 31, 1927. During the ten months ending October 31 earnings totaled $34,690,000, as compared with $3S,653,000 last year and $33,223,000 for the corresponding period in 1925. Current expenses (exclusive of cost of Federal reserve currency) amounted to $21,436,000 during the ten-month period, an increase of about $75,000 over the corresponding period last year. After providing for all current expense and dividend requirements, the Federal reserve banks on October 31 had a balance of $5,275,000 available for depreciation allowances, surplus and franchise taxes, as compared with a balance of $9,802,000 at the end of October 1926. VOLUME 174 PAGE 118 .0•1, (St. 5569-a) HA:AILIN OUT' DENTIAL Not for publication EARNINGS AND EXPENSES OF FETTRAL RESERVE BANKS, OCTOBER 1927. -6'ederal Yonth of Earnings from - Reserve Purchased Lills U. S. securities $9(2,710 $so,342 $76 534 Now York 330,152 279,404 Philadelphia 117,023 Cleveland counted bills Pletober Current expenses Exclusive of cost of currency st. 5569 10 Months endin 192/ Current net earninP-s Ratio to Amount paid-in capital Per cent Current net earnings 12.7 $ 79,727 $456,347 2,964,71g 1,9 6: 954 297 October 31, 19P7 Balance for Dividends reserves, accrued surplus, franchise tax, etc. Other sources Total $263,284 291,873 g 22,935 974,364 $95,769 427,66s 34,5g4 105,363 6,367 263,842 92,719 8.2 912,043 131,516 47,529 160,794 16,234 356,073 132,159 11.2 1,256,336 Richmond 07,276 93,554 53,67s 7,753 252,2.)-1 133,691 25.2 434,054 Atlanta 73,466 7,995 15,959 139,925 31,06s 7.1 710,527 3 2° 59 4,742 4° 3 456,0s4 C*Iica;.?;o 108,249 122,29e g.3 1,645,9'6 85)4,661 791,235 105,35o 39,463 4,o41 446,104 64,301 77,31g 11,025 37,505 221,074- 134,717 69,436 15.4 264,43G 432,921 Minneapolis 8,782 3o,652 70,435 11,583 121,457 37,050 14.5 747,357 232,619 150,611 82,008 illras City 47,785 27,465 077 31,050 21o,377 56,275 15.7 4s9,97s 21o,414 279,564 Dallas 21,300 37,120 90,914 5,616 154,950 43,971 12.1 341,329 213,574 127,755 131,507 25,o2o 123,859 s,645 294,031 100,127 12.6 1,246,225 453,924 792,301 2,319,064 1,342,321 2,244,392 1,432,22g 2,304,26511,950,609 12.0 13.3 18.5 11,710,884 6,436,372 5,274,512 15,881,547 6,079,059 9,802,48g Banh: Ft. Louis F5n Francisco TOTAL: Oct. 1927 1,276,067 757,0os Sept. 1927 1,250,089 5s3,221 Oct. 1326 2,254,394 912,549 FEDETZAL RES7RVE :BOARD DIVISIOJ OF BANK OPERATIONS NOVEMBER 12, 1927. 1,451,561 176,749 3,661,3S5 1,386,222 448,28g 3,676,620 942,261 145,670 4,254,874 2,156,185 2,095,SE',7 2,132,613 Total 11.9 4;223,3so 1,038,424 263,091 692,971 563,415 174,334 CONFIDENTIAL Preliminary Memorandum for the Open Market Investment Committee October 18, 1927. Ia accordance with the general policy forecast by discussions at the governors conference in May and at the meeting of the Open Market Investment Committee on July 27, all of the Federal Reserve Banks have since that meeting reduced their discount rates from 4 per cent to 3 1/2 per cent. The timing of these changes was as follows: July 29 Aug. 4 5612 13 16 Sept. 7 8" 10 13 - Kansas City St. Louis Boston, Nev; York Cleveland Dallas Atlanta Richmond Chicago Philadelphia San Francisco Minneapolis In order to make the change of discount rate effective in New York it was found necessary to purchase 50 million dollars of Government securities for account of the System, as previously authorized. The reduction of the rate in New York was followed by large transfers of funds to other districts, principally to the west. Between August 3 and September 7 Hum the Chicago bank reduced its rate) the gold reserves of the New York bank declined 109 million dollars, most of the loss going to the Reserve Banks which still maintained a 4 per cent rate. Over the whole period from July 20 to October 12 the New York Bank lost 181 millions of gold, including transfers to other districts as well as gold exports, and withdrawals of gold currency for circulation. As a consequence the • • BILLIONS c1DOLLAR5 1.2 1927 1.0 • A /1 _____._ •A s r— I 4 I P. ,. , i / ,, • 5 I I 1 I 1 I I I I , • 1 i Is I• • I\ I I I / ‘ % iI .% 0 1 / . / %, V ,A‘ i , ,,,,- . ,. dr , •I t / 8 P. 1% 4 • / • 4 . 4 l'''''; •".• • I ; ... I i • --•_._„._ I• „ra /1925 • • I / 1 II ,r— , GOLD RESERVES F. R.t3ANK 1 • J. F PLY. MA 1 MIT A N D 3 borrowing of New York City member banks increased about 75 million dollars and, with prospects of oven larger borrowings, it was necessary to purchase in August the 50 million of securities. Otherwise money rates would have experienced a sharp advance which would have defeated the purposes of the policies adopted. In this same period it has been possible to liquidate all of the special sterling account with the Bank of England i at a profit of e163,000. In order to offset the loss of funds to the New York money market resulting from these sales a corresponding amount of securities has been purchased, a reversal of the operation which took place in the Spring when purchases of gold abroad were offset by sales of securities. The transactions in the account since early in the year, exclusive of temporary or minor adjustments, are shown in the following table: 1:La'or Transactions For System Special Investment Account 001,000,000 Approximate amount in account January to May 1 Sale of securities, nay 1 to May 9, to offset 654000,000 purchase of gold (mostly gold held abroad) Balance in account May 9. . . 436,000,000 Purchases to offset gold earmarked in May and 100,000,000 June...... • Purchases during Juno and July under authorization 29,000,000 * of Committee meeting, held week of May 9 265,000,000 Balance in account July 18. . Purchases in August under authorization of Open Market Committee meeting of July 27. .. . • • . . 504000,000 Balance in account. .... . 015,000,000 • • • 0 Purchases in August, September and October to 60,000,000 offset sales of sterling .• . a Balance in account October 18. . 075,000,000 * out of an authorization of 400,000,000. It will be observed that as a net result of the year's operations to date the Special Investment account has been increased 174,000,000. Of 4 this 05,000,000 represents offsets to market losses through earmarkings, etc., and $79,000,000 represents purchases made in keeping with policy aims. A further result of the movement of funds from New York to other districts has been that member banks in districts other than New York have been able to meet the seasonal increase in credit requirements without any increase in their borrowings at their Reserve Banks, whereas banks in New York have increased their borrowings. The figures are as follows: Discounts and Advances (In Millions of Dollars) (Monthly Averages) New York District Other Districts 166 383 549 182 460 642 1927 123 331 454 Sopt., 1927 142 280 422 July, 1926 Sept., 1126 . . July, Total System The decrease in total member bank borrowings as compared with a year ago arises partly from a lessened demand for Federal Reserve credit due to smaller currency requirements and gold imports and partly from the increase in the Systeml s holdings of securities. The average figures for September for total bills and securities are as follows: Bills discounted Bills bought U. S. Securities Total bills and securities Se9t. 1926 641,797 263,992 3154 747 Sept. 1927 422,192 215,926 500,637 1,225,236 1,139,342 Under these conditions money rates have become relatively stable at ,levels about 1/4 to 1/2 of 1 per cent lower than at the middle of July and sub— stantially lower than a year ago. ing table; The changes in rates are shown in the follow6. • S , 5 Money Rates at New York Sept. 20 1926 Call money Time money - 90 day krime commercial papor Bills - 90 day unendorsed Treasury certificates and notes maturing 'December 15 March 15 Feder1 Reserve Bank of Now York rediscount rate Federal Reserve Balk of New York buying rate for 90 day bills July 15 1927 *5-5 1/2 5 1/8 4 1/2-4 3/4 3 7/8 3..54 3.56 4 3 3/4 Oct,. 17 1927 *4 4 1/2 4 1/4 3 5/8 *4 4 3/8 4 3 1/4 3603 3.24 2.89 3.08 4 3 1/2 3 3/4 3 1/4 *Prevailing rate for preceding week Consequences of Lower Rates Aside from the domestic movement of funds from New York to other districts, sailiwomos••••..iiiiamwmprimmise, the following changes, related in some measure to the lower rate level, have taken place in the money market situation. 1, Hi2-her Sterlin,r, Exchan-e: Whereas a year ago sterling exchange moved steadily downward from early July until the end of Uctober, and such a movement had begun early in July this year, the lower level of interest rates prevailing has been an influence toward stronger sterling exchange, and the demand rate has moved from a little above 4.85 the middle of July to nearly );4.86 3/4 recently, and the cable rate from k4.85 1/2 to k4.87 1/8, - this notwithstanding sales of over 12 million pounds of sterling by the Reserve Banks. This strength in the exchange rellectsthe tendency for funds to move from New York to London, and some tendency for short and long term financing to be shifted from London to New York. The rates London banks are now paying for detosits are about 4 1/4 to 4 1/2 per cent, and are higher rates . than those at which funds can be employed at short notice in the New York money market, Acceptance credits are now cheaper to obtain in New York than they were and • ;, 1927 1925\ • CALL RATES Tx/ft/rill AVE AGES • , 5TERL/N6 EXCHANGE PA tvO RATES • LI I,0— 1..4,1?.5 81L,L5 015COUNTED N.Y. C/TY. 0 -00. ' , BILLS 0/5COUNTED '•, ( ; - # 71 7 -7 TOTAL DILLS &5ECURIT/E5 ALL F.R LANKS ,- _ _ _ • LOANS &INVE.Srtinirs iic:r ,A/E,",7t3.6/t'. PA Ail< 5 • , , - S • t. 7 the dollar volume of bills outstanding in this market is as large as at any time since 1920. Sterling lonr; bills are also bought here by our banks and "carried" in London after acceptance instead of being discounted. 2. Net Geld Ex.:orts in September. In every month this year up to September there had been a net iralzort of gold (if we exclude earmark ings). But in Septernter there has at last been a net export movement of gold and -ryvnevkAX gold imports for the-immenumb- are A net outgo of about 13 arrested., million dollars was largely the result of a shipment of 23 million to the rlrgentine, more than offsetting imports of about 10 million from ustrali ia. ...flail° the argentine shipment was in the nAure of a special transac tion, the relation of exchalge rates made it cheaper to purchase this gold in Ne,.7 York than in London. So far this yoar all movements of gold (exports, imports, and earmarking operations) have reculted in a net gain to this country of about ( 49 million dollars, This is contrary to general views, which are based on rel:orts that omit earmarked gold held by us. In this connection it is interesting -to note that in -the past three years, 1925, 1926, and 1927, durin7 which there has been considerable discussion of our sterili zing gold, this country has gained as a net result of gold operations only about 18 million dollars of :;old, which is 1es:.3 th=_-n seasonal movemen ts of single years at times prior to the war. 3. Growth in Speculation. ti further and less favorable result of easier money, and one which was anticipated, has been some stimulation of stock exchange speculation. There has been a growth of 336 million dollars since the middle of July in loans to brokers and dealers in New York, accompanying an irregular advance in stock prices. Thoro is no means of knowing beyond question how far this recent rise in stock prices represents excessive speculation and how far it represents BILLIONS u/I)OLLA I?5 MONEY IN CIRCULATION .5.0 I.9 7 4.6 1927 21.6 T J. N Ni A S J A 5 ) Amount of Currency in Circulation at Frsi of' eccosi. Mouth, U.S. Treasury Departnent Reports. N12,731v, . - !Y; ) , GOLD /101/EllENT 0.6. 1111.1r, .......***# ...00° ' ... „ - -150 Net Gain or of Gold through Exporte,Imports, and Earmarking. Lobe 8 a gradual readjustment of values to increased industrial efficiency, larger profits, higher commodity prices, and a lower basic interest rate level than for sobs years past. It is clear from a study of such relationships as those of stock yields with bond yields and with money rates, that the current level of stock market prices is less abnormal than a casual inspection of prices alone would suest. The investment trust and the growing popularity of common stocks as investments are factors which may also be changing somewhat the old price and yield relationships. 4. Growth in Volume of Credit. There has been a considerable growth in the volume of bank credit, more rapid in fact than took place in either 1925 or 1926. The figures of repartee. member banks in principal cities for this year to date, in comparison with the three years previous, are as follows: Increase January i to October 1 (In Millions) 1924 Total loans and invest1,571 ments 275 Commercial loans Loans on stocks and 440 bonds 856 Investments 1925 1926 1927 611 153 404 301 911 23 5/3 115 8/ 190 333 554 * * Includes 300 increase in governments, with biggest change at March tax period. The increases in these items between the middle of July and the first of October have been as follows: Increase Middle of July to first week of 9ctober (In Millions) 1924 Total loans and investments Commercial loans Loans on stocks and bonds Investments 1,029 301 209 519 1925 1926 1927 495 360 171 36 359 298 107 46 634 271 321 42 9 5. Greater Firmness in Commodity Prices. An index of prices of basic commodities, computed by the New York Reserve Bank, has been tending generally upward since early in the spring, due almost wholly to increases in agricultural prices, which may be ascribed largely to particu- lar crop conditions but partly to success in marketing surplus production abroad. The . upward movement has been accelerated, however, in the past two months and the larger index of the Lepartment of Labor, made up from quotations for over 500 different commodities, also moved upward in July and August. This index is still, however, a number of points lower than it was a year ago. • PERCEivr. 1701 WHOLESA L. E P/21 C.E cp /Go Federal Reserve Po/1.rd' e Index of Production of gureau of Labor 6tatistics Ir.dex or ::holesale Price6. Manufacturere. ( -" - iTOCK PR/C.ES 1 BOND PRICES 3 Standard Statistics Coopany Index of Prices of I. 229 Stocks. New York Times Price Averaie of 40 C,orporation Bonde. BANK DEBIT3 Out5rcie 4 wI F jA. 11 General Condition of Business There has been no marked change in the general business outlook. The general volume of manufacturing production is somewhat lower than a year ago and lower than it was early this year, a. change which is reflected in a smaller currency demand than last year. The agricultural situation, however, has improved and there are prospects for larger crops than had been anticiated early in the spring, and an increase in the purchasing power of the farm population. The general business outlook is, however, for a continued fairly good volume of business activity during the balance of the year, without either a recession or a boom. Many authorities agree that increasing domestic competition is affecting profits adversely. Developments Abroad The outstanding new developments in European money markets aro the increases of the discount rates by the Reichsbank from 6 to 7 per cent, and its Lombard rate from 7 to 8 per cent and but recently of Holland from 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 . Aside from those changes the rates of central banks abroad have been at the same level as in July. The explanation of the change of rate by the Reichsbank is its reduced reserve assets, and in general it illustrates the narrowness of margin within which the banks of issue af Europe are operating and probably reflects some strain in meeting payments due to the U. S. The reserves of most European banks of issue are not adequate generally to undergo any considerable or continued strain without the necessity for increases in rates. The latest moves emphasize the importance of this country's maintaining, if possible, a rate relationship with Europe, such that at least the world's new gold output available for monetary purposes may not be diverted to this country but may flow to those centers where the reserves are most in need of reinforcement. 1 .• • • 12 The Sterling Position 'jhile our rate reductions, together with a recent increase in foreign loans placed in this market, a movement by American banks to accumulate balances in London, and probably some covering of short positions in sterling have led to the sharp advance in sterling rates commented upon earlier, there remains some question as to the position of sterling for the balance of this year, The movement of cotton, while smaller than last year, is at much higher prices and the delayed move. ment has probably not reduced total dollar requirements. The larger amount of bills being drawn in dollars than last year, simply dafers the demand abroad for dollars. Some of these developments simply defer but do not finally effect dollar payments. It is hoped that the ultimate demand for dollars may go over until the period of liquidation and ease of rates immediately after January 1st. In the meantime, however, the committee should be prepared to intervene, if necessary, and again accumulate a London portfolio at the London gold export point, or buy gold in London when offered for export to New York. In case of such purchases the committee should consider whether offsetting sales of securities should not be made in New York just as they were in the spring when gold was acquired abroad. The Guilder Position The holiday delayed cable exchanges which might have enabled us otherwise to agree with the Nederlandsche Bank upon a plan to avoid their rate increase or limit it to 1/2 per cent, instead of 1 per cent. This situation may recur and should be considered by the committee. 13 As to Offsetting Gold Movements or the Equivalent The experiences of this year have provided a demonstration of the effectiveness of the policy of offsetting gains and losses of gold through import, export, or earmarking by purchases or sales of securities. Purchases or sales of gold abroad or of exchange, which have just the some effect on. the market as gold movementsj have been similarly offset, as indicated by the table on page 2. That table indicates, that whereas the open market account increased from 136 million in May to 375 million in 'October, only 79 million of the purchases were of a nature to affect the I credit situation; the balance represented offsets. The effect of such offsetting purchases or sales has been to prevent disturbance to the credit situation from artificial causes. purchases or sales of this sort are If not made promptly, not only will money rates be affected, sometimes quite sharply, but the borrowings from the reserve banks will become readjusted ,automatically at times when not desirable. In the case of imports of gold, unless repayalents of loans are at once made to the reserve banks, loan expansion occurs at once in the market. Failure to "offset" a gold import or export (or equivalent earmark transaction) has the same result as a purchase or a sale of securities when no gold movement occurs. The same situation arises whenever large transac.tions for foreign banks alter the reserve position, and occasionally when ,. changes occur in Treasury balances with the Reserve Banks. It should be understood that these necessary adjustments will be made from time to time, within reasonable limits and for a round amount, the members of the committee being consulted by telephone. At times action must be. taken at once, - for example, when a foreign bank desires to sell securities and earmark gold, or when our own foreign balances are being liquidatea S • 14 as recently. Sales of Securities in January In addition to any sales of securities which may be necessary to offset any purchases of foreign exchange, or gold abroad, it will be necessary to consider whether sales should be made in January. In case borrowings at the New York Reserve Bank, and possibly other Reserve Banks, are not sufficient to absorb the January return flow of currency and Reserve Bank credit, the committee should consider sales of securi— ties, Futlite Program At to specific cans The committee should consider the following 1. The Reserve Banks being prepared to repeat the operation of buying gold or balances abroad, if necessary, to prevent gold movement from London or some other foreign center. 2. A continuance of the general understanding that the committee will undertake to offset by purchases and sales of securities any such major gold, or equivalent, operations as have been offset this year. This would include the offsetting of purchases or sales of sterling or other foreign currencies. 3. The desirability of sales of securities in January, if it appears necessary, to take up slack in the money market. As to R.eneral policy. A review of the events of the past two months makes it clear that the policies agreed upon in July have so far been successful, more so perhaps than could have been anticipated. Concerning the future, the principal questions are 1. How long will the firmness of sterling and other European exchanges be maintained, even with present rate relationships, when the full seasonal strain for making American purchases appears! 2 2. Will money rates in this country rise later in ths, year with Christmas demands for funds, so as to disturb the international rate relationships' 3. Is there likely to be increasing difficulty for Europe in meeting payments due in the United States' 4. Is there likelihood of speculation in stocks or commodities, using so large an amount of credit as to constitute a danger? 5. In view of these possibilities what flexibility in operations should be given the Open Market Committee' • CO 4FILIE1 (4 4. October 29, 1927) Supplementary Note on Gold Earmarking Since the preceding pages wore written we have received instructions from -I foreign correspondent to earmark 50 million dollars of gold for their aecount. This earmarking operation has precisely the same -effect in withdrawing funds from the money market as the export of 50 mill ion dollars of gold, or the sale of 50 million dollars of securities by the Reserve System., In order that this operation may not disturb the money market and de feat the policy we have been pursuing, the committee is undertaking to offset these earmark ings by a purchase of 50 million dollars of securities, so that the net result of the operat ion will .be to leave the money market unaffected. This transaction illustrates precisely what occurs when gold is earmarked. Under the instruct ions which have been received, 30 million dollars of the earmarked gold will be paid for by applying the proceeds of bankers acceptances now held for the account of this correspondent, which mature between now and November 11. The remaining 20 million will be paid for by funds to be de- posited with the New York Reserve Bank by a number of the New York City banks, which hold balances for the account of this correspondent. The procedure which we have agreed upon for the earmarking of gold results in our setting as -ide gold in the amounts and on the dates indicated below: GOLD TO BE EARMARKED FOR FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT Date October Proceeds Maturing Bills To be received From New York Banks 25 ,'`,10, 000,000 $ 4,000,000 26 2,0001 000 27 2,000,000 28 2,000,000 31 5, 000,000 2,0001 000 November 1 2,000,000 5,000,000 2 2,000,000 3 2,000,000 000,000 42, 7 5,000,000 5,000,000 11 $30,000,000 $20,000,000 Total 000 0.4,000, 21 000,000 2,000,000 2,0001 000 7,000,000 2, 000,000 7,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,„ 000 $50,000,000 (4 - October 291 1927) 2 Should any of the payments from the New York banks be made in Clearing House funds, it would result in delaying one day the earmarking of gold. It will be seen that, as the bills held for this correspondent mature, the market pays to the Federal Reserve Bank the amounts due, and that as these sums are applied to the purchase of gold and are not reinvested in the market they will constitute a loss to the market, reduce the reserves of the New York City banks, and (in the absence of offsetting operations) force those banks to increase their borrowings at the Federal Reserve Banks. Payments to the Reserve Bank by New York City banks have a precisely similar result. In order to maintain the present status quo it is necessary, there- fore, to put 50 million dollars into the market to replace the 50 million dollars withdrawn by this earmarking operation. Securities are being pur- chased a little more slowly than gold is being earmarked and thus a daily test is made of market conditions. At present the New York City banks owe the Federal Reserve Bank of New York about 90 million dollars, and this amount of borrowing will normally be increased somewhat as Christmas approaches. Any large extended increase in this borrowing would be followed inevitably by firmer money rates, and would imperil the policy which the Reserve System has been following. One other phase of this earmarking operation is worthy of consideration. Exports and imports of gold from and into this country since the be- ginning of this year resulted in a net import of about 125 million dollars. If, however, earmarking operations are taken into account the net gain to the market through imports will, after the completion of this transaction, (4 — October 29, 1927) 3 have been entirely offset by losses through the earmarking of gold, Thus the actual facts as to gold movements are quite contrary to the general belief based upon the published figures for gold exports and imports. The s -me thing is true if we go back a few years. Since the autumn of 1924 the figures for gold imports and exports indicate a net movement to this country of about 100 mill ion dollars, and it is the common impress ion that in the past three years we have been absorbing and sterilizing the world's gold. 'Nhen earmark ings are taken into consideration, however, the past three years (including this current transaction) show a net loss of 5O,000,000 of gold rather than a net gain. In view of the important influence of gold movements upon money conditions, and the somewhat misleading character of statements which are now made public, it is believed that we should consider some weekly statement as to gold held under earmark. It is true that figures given out once a month by the Department of Commerce for the stock of gold in the United States do make allowance for earmarking, but these figures are published only once a month and some time after the event. The publishing of weekly figures for gold earmarkings would correct possible erroneous impressions and aid in a general public understanding of Federal Reserve policies. • CONFIDENTIAL To Governor Stron October li, 1927 From W. R. Burgess Memorandum en the Stock D:arket The concern of the Federal Reserve System as to the stock market has to do with its use of credit. There are two principal ways in which the amount of credit employed by the market can be judged. First. A comparison ef changes in such use of credit with such related factors as the prices of securities, the volume of trading, and changes in other forms of credit. Second. The soundness, i.e. permanence, of current market values against which the credit is advanced. 1. Use of Credit in Security iiiarkets Security Loans and Stock i'rices The following chart shows the changes in recent years in loans on stocks and bonds of the reporting member banks in principal cities, in compariso n with prices of common stocks. In general the two lines move closely together, but in the past year security loans have increased less rapidly than stock prices. The spread between these two lines would appear to indicate some tendency toward 4reater conservatism in the use of credit in security market operations, vihich may be due to such factors as larger margins or a larger proportion of investment buying for cash. at /510 STOCK PRICEINVEX I.C.)Ati3 BILLI0N5ofDOLLARS 7 1175 672 • 4 7 -7//, / 5 1 LOANS SECURED by STOCKS &3O1'05 • STOCK PR I CE5 0• •( • I ez 1919 19RO 192.1 1922 192,3 1924- 192,5 1926 1927 3 Security Loans and Volume of Security Operations A further test of the present volume of loans on securities may be found in the concurrence of the movement of security loans, the volume of trading, and the volume of new financing. This comparison is made on the following diagram and indicates that increases in extensions of credit have been no greater than the increases in the volume of security operations. Security Loans in Relation to Total Bank Credit The second chart on the page shows the ratio of bank loans on securities to the total amount of loans and investments of the repusting member banks. It indicates that, while in 1925 the ratio of security loans to total bank credit increased from 25 to 29 per cent, since that date this ratio has fluctuated within narrow limits. The proportion of brokers loans to total loans on stocks and bonds has been rising since early this year but remains slightly lower than in January and February 1926, though higher than at any other time in recent months. These ratios are shown in the following table. l'ercentage of Brokers Loans to Loans on Stocks and Bonds of all Reporting Member Banks of System Last Reporting Date January February March April May June July August September October November Lecember 1926 1927 56.2 57.3 47.6 46.6 45.9 46.0 47.8 49.7 50.2 48.2 48.6 48.8 49.9 50.7 50.2 51.1 52.1 53.4 53.6 54.4 .74 ,*•!* • 13/LL/ON5o//YJLh4/?5• 7 I 6 LOANS ON .570C1(5 &DOND5 \ , ESTI/FATD /# ' , AGI/WER of TRANSACTIONS 3 of,iN.Y. STOCK e e' 2 4, S. •• S. 1919 '20 NfW OlePORATE FiNA A C/N6 X ee e eole e '21 '22. 24 '2.3 '26- '2C '27 Yearly Averages of 'i'oekly Figures on Loans on 6tocics and Bonds by Reporting Member Banks, Lompared aith Volume of New Corporate Financing and Estimated dumber of Transactions on New York Stock Exchange. (1927 estimated) PER CENT 32 30 RATIO OF LOANS ON 5fOUR?TMS to TOTAL LOANS & 28 IN NTS 26 21 Ratio of Loans on Stocks and Bonds to Total Loans and Investments of All Reporting Member Banks. az 1922 1923 192-1 1925 1926 1927 5 Summary as to 1. The foregoing facts may be summarized by saying that while loans on securities are very large and have been increasing they do not appear, if they may be judged by previous experie nce, to be seriously disproportionate to: A. Stock prices B. Volume of trading C. Total bank credit 6 2. Soundness of Current Market Values While the foregoing comparisons are interesting and give some security indication that the present relation of the use of credit in the markets to the general growth of credit in the country and the general trend of stock market prices and volume of trading is not unprecedented, the more important related question is whether present values in the security market have a sound basis, for the danger to be feared is a collapse of the market, which would react upon business and bring serious losses to many people. The likelihood of such a crash is increased when stock market prices get out of touch with reality. There are two general tests as to the soundness of current stock market prices. Stocks are dealt in the same as commodities at varying prices, and presumably there should be some relation between their price movement and the movement of the prices of commodities. But stocks are also a particular kind of commodity, the value of which consists in the current and prospective yield. Thus a more important test of stock prices is their yield compared with the yield of other forms of investment. 7 Stocks and Commodity Frices The following diagram compares prices of stocks with the movement of commodity prices and indicates that up until comparatively recently the prices of stocks have increased less since 1913 than the wholesale prices of commodities, but that in the past two years the prices of stocks have tended to exceed the prices of commodities. is very rough and very general. This comparison for a number of reasons The industrial plants, stores, etc.,which 7tocks represent4 are commodities the prices of which would not normlly move with a general index which includes largely basic commodities. Noreover, industrial concerns are continuously expanding their plants and equipment by ihe use of surplus earnings, and hence increasing the value of their stocks. This factor is partly compensated for by additional issues of stock. no way of knowing how precise is this compensation. There is 2p 11 G6 PER ceNy. 300 200n-- TAI1-/OLL5A L CON/VD/TY PR/CES 100 STOCK PRICL5 5o _ 1913 .11 '15 '1G '17 _ _ 18 '19 '20 '21 '22, '23 '24 "),5- 'a '27 '28 Stock Price Index, Computed by Combining Dow-Jones Averages of Industrial and Railroad Stocks in the Proportion of 3 to 1, Compared with Bureau of Labor Statistics Index of (Both indexes on 1913 Wholesale Prices. base, 1927 estimated.) 9 Yields on Stocks Compared with Other Investments Over a long term of years it has been clearly demonstrated that the dividend yields on stocks at their currently quoted prices bear a significant relation to the yields on bonds or money invested for short periods. Stock yilds have in this country tended to be one or two per cent higher than bond yields, and also higher than time money rates (as an example of short money rates) hut there have been times when stock yields have gone below both bond yields and short money rates, The general relationship of these rates over a period of years is shown in the following diagram. /2‘6. OA • YIELD PER CENT. 33 COMMON STOCKS HIGH GRADE BONDS , 2 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 192.q 1925 1926 Yields on Dividend Payini Common stooks Compared with Yields on Preferred Stocks and bonds and Rates on 60-90 day Time Money. 1927 10 The normality or abnormality of stock market prices can perhaps be measured more precisely by observing the deviations of stock yields from bond yields and current money rates. diagram. Such computations are made in the following They indicate that while stock yields are low, they are not as low relative to bond yields and money rates as they have been a number of times in the past. Moreover, there is some reason to believe that a fundamental change 71:7 be going on in the relative popularity of stocks and bonds in this country. In our historic emphasis upon bonds rather than stocks as a vehicle for invest. ment, we have not followed the usual European practice. In many of the older European countries in which industries have been very firmly established, stocks of old industries have frequently sold on a yield basis lower than highgrade bonds. This relationship has been justified by the expectancy of increases in prices and yields of industrial shares. The very heavy losses suffered by bond holders in this country in the past 20 years due to declines in bond values have led to some questioni ng of the soundness of our historic practice, and more latterly a number of statistical studies have shown that over the past 50 years purchases of common stocks Would have constituted sounder investments than bonds. These findings have undoubtedly led to some change in the popular relative esteem of stocks and bonds, which ..las found expression also in the establishment of many investment trusts a considerable proportion of the funds of which has been invested in common stocks. of this may be leading to a new relationship between the yields on common stocks, on bonds, and on short time money. Sp MO MARGIN BETWEEN l'IELD ON COMMON STOCKS AND ('TIME MONEY RATES AlliD (24'f301VD Y1EL D5 Pe-rce MARGIN srocir YIELD ovkm TINE LOAN RATE MARGIN 570C-4' YIELD oVtR TIME LOAN RATE NA/e6/N 5706r YIELD ovER BOND YIELD '914 1916 191 - /1AR4/N 5TOCA' Y/ELD oVER DONE) YIELD 918 /9:9 190 1901 1922 /923 1924 1925 /926 1,927 (/ 12 Money Rates an Important Factor The foregoing charts make large influence upon stock prices. it clear that money rates have a It seems reasonably clear that an in— crease or reduction in short money rates of 1 per cent, for example, might be almost a determining factor in the immediate trend of stock prices, and the permanence of present stock market values depends not a little on the future prospects for money. Summary as to 2. A comparison of stock prices and commodity prices indicates that stock prices are now higher relative to 1913 than are wholesale commodity prices, but this compLxison is inconclusive because of the number of differ— ences in the two things being compared. A study of stock yields compared with yields on bonds and short money rates indicates that, from this point of view, stock prices are high, but no higher than they have been a number of times in the past, and there may be going on today also fundamental changes in this relationship. The present level of stock prices appears to be closely related to current money rates. Scurity Frices Abroad Some collateral light on security price movements here is thrown o7 comparing them with movements abroad. This is done in the following two charts, which indicate that both in stocks and bonds we have been dealing recently with a world tendency toward higher prices, which in a number of countries has exceeded the movement here. 13 various The figures are shown in terms of the domestic currencies of and Italy countries converted to a January 1925 base and in tho cases of France The decline are, affected by fluctuations in the gold value of those currencies. middle shown by Italian stock prices, in terms of lire, particularly since the of 1926 is duo largely to appreciation in the value of the lire. In the case of middle France) if allowance were made for the appreciation of the franc since the of 1926) stock prices would be even higher than shown in the chart. It would take further analysis than has yet been given to account fully for this world-wide movement. One of the possible explanations is that for the world as a whole we have been going through a period of readjustment to new bases of values, Another theory is that it is an era of unbridled speculation. In any event it is clear that the movement of security prices in this country cannot be laid wholly to our domestic monetary policy. sp 115-6 Indexes of Prices of Variable Interest Securities, Unadjusted for Variations ir Exchanese Value of Currencies. ViiIfBLE INTEREST SEcuev-riEs (TAK. 19),S- foo) jja2,fi, FRAt4ce. I6 *•4; 4 •••••••• • ITALY swprzEieLfimp ERMANY CANADA E I o 4 • I' % i i •It Ni \/ 4t il 4. V • .i. ,• 4 /.., 1 , ‘, • • ... 4. 4- I • A/ .• • .* 1 1 * 11-41 si, / 4-* / t •\ I \• I. I --- • l'ir14.4•4 / / . ‘ .„ i . • % `ii * - IL I o ----S •... •' ' I ... . • • • ... . • $ / 1.------.... ............ --c. .• • /e....-,_._____,. -. ,,•••'e •-• --.-S, .• :' ... • - ••••••• \ .••••• • /' / / 0. / 4 14. Sp I45-5 Indexes of Prices of Fixed Interest Securities, Unadjusted for Variations in Exchange Value of Currencies. FIXED INTEREST 130 (TAN. Sect/Rs -ries = U. s.A. FRA rice. •—• ITALY Sv/iTz.E. $.4-4-+4 GERMANY C A NA DA 15-0-0 ENGLAND 110 110 ••••11 . 00 o /*\' / •—•-••.* / . 0 -.--0••••••7••••„0...... \ / \ -- lo 80 iq 19).6 q • a REPORT OF THE SECRETARY OF THE OPEN MARKET INVESTMENT COMMITTEE TO THE GOVERNORS' CONFERENCE_, NOVEMBER 2, 1927 The holdings of Government securities in the Special Investment Account at the time of the last Governors' Conference held in Washington, during the week commencing May 9, 1927, amounted to approximately $136,000,000k The holdings in the account since last May have been increased to 375,000,000 by the following purchases: May & June June ec July July & Aug. Aug. & Sept. To offset earmarked gold for account of foreign correspondents 1001 000 000 Additional purchases made under authority given the Committee at Governors' Conference in May (for purchases not to exceed $100,000,000) which authority terminated on August 1, 1927 29,000,000 Additional purchases pursuant to action taken at a meeting of the Open Market Investment Committee held in Washington on July 27, 1927 50,000,000 To off set the sale in this mark et of the System's sterling balances 60,000.000 Total holdings $375,000,000 There have been various other changes which have not affected the total holdings in the account (with the exception of purchases made in re.-placement of June and September 15 maturities which only temporarily changed the total holdings), the principal transactions being: June 1927 June 1927 Purchases in replacement of June 15 maturities for System and Foreign Accounts Exchange of Second 4 1/4°,10 Liberty Loan bonds for new 3 3/8. Treasury bonds due 1943/47 pursuant to terms of Treasury off ering. These Treasury bonds were subsequently sold at a profit in the market in August and a like amount of 3 1/8-4 certificates due September 15, 1927 were acquired. $115,000,000 20,000,000 2 July 1927 July & Aug. September September Exchange with other Federal reserve banks whereby we purchased from their hold— ings outside of System Account, Treasury certificates and notes maturing September and December 15, 1927, and sold them a like amount of Third 4 1/4% Liberty Loan bonds (approximately) 20,000,000 Exchange with a foreign correspondent whereby we purchased from them 3 1/4% certificates maturing September 15, 1927 and sold to them a like amount of 3 1/45 certificates maturing March 15, 1928. In August, the September 15 certificates were exchanged in the market for a like amount of Third 4 lAs. 30,000,000 Purchases made in replacement of September 15 maturities for System and Foreign Accounts. The Open Market Investment Committee approved, including in these purchases, a block of $25,000,000 Fourth 4 1/4s against which authoriz a tion a total of $22,500,000 of this issue of bonds was purchased. Exchange of Second 4 1/4% Liberty Loan bonds for like amount of new Treasury 3 1/2% notes due September 15, 1930/32 pur— suant to terms of Treasury offering 155,000,000 24,100,000 On June 3 the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asked to be relieved temporarily of $8,000,000 of their participation of Govern— ment securities held in the System Account. This amount of Governments was sold from their participation on that date an4 allotted to all the other participating banks, and on June 9 the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis repurchased these securities. On June 29 and July 1 the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis again asked to be relieved temporarily of $10,000,000 aggregate amount of their participation of Government securities held in the System Account. $5,000,000 of these securities were allotted to the other participating banks and the remaining $5,000,000 was apportioned to the Federal Reserve Br-Ark of Richmond • • 3 (having in mind their urgent need for earnings to cover current expenses, etc.) On July 13 the Reserve Bank of St. Louis advised that they Qsuld take back the $10,000,000 of Government securities which they temporarily sold and accordingly a sale was made to them on that day of the 0,000,000 which had been allytted to the other participating banks and $5,000,000 from New York's participation in the System Account to replace the $5,000,000 which had been sold to Richmond. Due to their low reserve position, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond requested on October 17 and 19 that they be temporarily relieved of $5,000,000 and $10,000,000, respectively, of their participation of Government securities held in the System Special Investment Account. This sale was accordingly made and the securities were allotted to the other participating banks on the prevail. ing allotment ratios. During the first half of the current year System purchases of bankers acceptances and new purchases of Government securities were apportioned to reserve banks on percentages based on each bank's expenses, dividends and chargeoffs. With the approval of all the banks, new ratios were put into effect on July 8 based on each bank's earning requirements for the balance of the year. These ratios were again adjusted on September 1, September 19 and October 13, and further adjustments on the same basis will be made from now until the end of the year if the figures submitted by the banks indicate that further changes are necessary. On September 21 the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond requested that we discontinue for the present allotting them their Government securities. share of any new purchases lf They further advised that they wished to continue their . participation in allotments of bankers acceptances and replacement purchases of Government securities. 4 Attached are statements showing: Exhibit A - Actual net earnings of all Federal reserve banks for the first nine months of the year 1927 and estimated net earnings for last three months of year 1927, and estimated amount of net earnings or net deficit at end of year. Exhibit B - Participation of Federal reserve banks in System Special Investment Account Government securities and classification of issues held in the account by maturities. Exhibit C Purchases of bankers acceptances since the beginning of the year and amount each bank has received in excess or short of its pro rata share. Exhibit D - Earning asset holdings of Federal reserve banks October 19, 1927 as compared with previous week, also weekly average from December 29, 1926 to October 19, 1927 as compared with corresponding period of 1926. • S EXHIBIT "A" STATEMENT SWUNG ACTUAL NET EARNINGS OF ALL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR 1927 AND ESTIMATED NET EARNINGS FOR LAST THREE MONTHS OF YEAR 1927, AND ESTIMATED AMOUNT OF NET EARNINGS OR NET DEFICIT AT END OF YEAR Actual Net Earnings in Excess of Expenses and Dividends, but Before Chargeoffs, 9 Months Ended Sept. 30/27 3oston 138,000 New York 842,000 Philadelphia 175,000 Cleveland 474,000 Estimated Net Earnings in Excess of Expenses and Dividends, but Before Charge-offs, for Balance of Year 1927 Estimated Charge-offs for Year 1927 Estimated Net Earnings After All Charge-offs Available for Surplus and Franchise Tax for Year 1927 143,000 $ 172,000 109,000 397,000 475,000 764,000 78,000 94,000 178,000 285,000 367,000 39,000 124,000 147,000 16,000 Atlanta 406,000 139,000 135,000 410,000 Chicago 647,000 346,000 697,000 296,000 St. Louis 435,000 130,000 317,000 248,000 Minneapolis 89,000 2,000 102,000 Kansas City 239,000 82,000 166,000 155,000 82,000 8,000 41,000 49,000 629,000 50,000 140,000 549,000 ;,4,195,000 ::;1.,606,000 $2,755,000 $3,046,000 Richmond Dallas San Francisco Totals *Deficit $ 3,000* 11,000* EXHIBIT "B" STATEMENT SHOWING PARTICIPATION BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS IN SYSTEM SPECIAL INVESTMENT ACCOUNT AND CLASSIFICATION OF ISSUES HELD OCTOBER 19 1927 IN THE ACCOUNT BY MATURITIES Boston 25,853,500 Dec. New York 96,994,800 March 15, 1928 - 3 1/4% Cert. of Ind. Philadelphia 22,987,500 March 15, 1928 - Cleveland 31,102,500 Sept. 15, 1928 - 4 1/4% 3rd L/L bonds idchitond 11,214,000 March 15, 1932 - 3 1/2% Treas, Notes 60,889,800 ,ktianta 9,860,000 Sept. 15, 1932 - 3 1/2°7. Treas. Notes 18,244,000 o 53)979,500 Chic St. Louis 20,280,000 Minneapolis 16,672,000 Kansas City 26,019,000 Dallas 23,821,500 San Francisco :1,6,105,500 Totals $374,889,800 Oct. 15, 1927 - 4 1/2% Treas. Notes II II II 15, 1938 - 4 1/4% 4th L/I, bonds 19,327,500 60,283,500 48,506,000 145,049,000 22,5000 000 $374,889,800 • EXHIBIT "C" PURCHASES OF BANKERS ACCEPTANCES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, AND AMOUNT EACH BANK NOW HOLDS IN EXCESS OR SHORT OF ITS PRO RATA SHARE UNDER THE APPORTIONMENT PLAN PUT INTO E:FFECT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE YEAR AND REVISED ON JULY 8 SEPTEMBER 1, SEPTEMBER 19 AND OCT_913Ep, 1 3 Bills Over Bills Short Pro Rata Share Pro Rata Share Bills Acquired Bills Entitled to Ac quire 95,808,000 93,456,000 ,,2, 352,000 309,294,000 309,832,000 0 538,000 91,519,000 94,737,000 0 3,218,000 11 4,105,000 11 4,023,000 Richmond 96,457,000 97,9 38,000 t1 anta 49,6 48,000 49,081,000 567,000 0 Chicago 168,174,000 167,421,000 753,000 0 3t. Louis 61,230,000 61,600,000 0 370,000 Minneapolis 52,016,000 5 3,728,000 0 1,712,000 Kansas City 69,755,000 70,434,000 0 679,000 Dallas 52,412,000 53,487,000 0 1,075,000 San Francisco 81,060,000 75,741,000 5,319,000 0 39,073,000 39,073,000 ---,ston -,:ew York Philadelphia , . 1 ev el and ti Totals $ 3l,241,478,000 $1,241,478,000 ' 82,000 0 0 0 1,481,000 The overages shown in the above statement are being adjusted in the usual manner by making distribution to other reserve banks. • • - Oct. 12 " 19 Net Change Bills Purchased $33,932 27,641 6,291- - Oct. 12 " 19 Net Change 28,873 30,366 1,493+ Goverment Securities - Oct. 12 et ft " 19 Net Change Total Earning Assets 27,049 27,592 54i+ - Oct. 12 " 19 Net Change 89,854 85,599 4,255- New York $119,787 96,873 22,914- 111,125 102,843 8,282- 105,216 102,026 3,190- 336,128 301,742 34,386- Phila. $35,404 35,563 3,159+ 11,940 12,601 661+ 36,222 38,172 1,950+ 83,566 89,436 5,870+ Con.parison of Weekly Average of Earnin_g_Assets Dec. 29, 197- to (1 t. 19,1927 Same period 1926 Entire year 1926 71,647 80,818 82,511 259,977 272,491 . 278,628 81,087 90,072 91,705 Net change from same period 1926 " entire year 1926 9,17110,864- 12,51418,651- 8,98510,618- _Comparison of EarninE Assets October 19, 1927 October 20, 1926 85,599 65,285 Not Change io STA2EMENT SHOWING EAR'ING ASSET hOLDINGS OF ALL FEDERAL REsERvE BArKs ocToBFR 19, 1927 COrPAR-D : 1 7TH PREVIOUS WEEK AND OCTOBER 20, 1926, ALSO WFXKLY AVERAGE OF_EARNING_AsSETs_FRam DEGEmBER 29, 1926 TO OCTOBER 19, 1927 AS CO”PARED WITH CORRESPONDING PERIOD 1926 AND ERE YEAR 1926 (000 OMITTedrBoston Bills Discounted EXHIBIT 20,314+ 301,742 205,574 96,168+ 89,436 94,846 5,410- Cleveland $54,590 43,306 11,284- 16,620 18,757 2,137+ 55,585 57,203 1,618+ 126,795 119,266 7,529- 107,012 106,914 115,174 98+ 8,162- 119,266 136,604 17,338- Richmond $29,014 33,375 4,361+ 33,251 38,053 4,802+ 27,455 12,455 15,000- 89,720 83,883 5,837- Atlanta $22,505 25,129 $33,043 51,129 St.Louis $18,805 28,260 2,624+ 18,086+ 9,455+ 2,404 2,414 25,014 30,533 3,866 3,700 10+ 12,988 15,570 j82+ 38,197, 40,913 2,716+ 48,804 61,342 59,659 49,214 75,957 76,645 12,53810,855- 26,74327,431- 83,883 67,883 40,913 92,479 16,000+ Chicc.go 51,566- 5,519+ 74,227 74,585 356+ 132,284 156,245 20,961+ 146,389 153,674 164,144 7,28517,755- 156,245 173,788 17,543- Yinn. 1,356+ $ 4,797 7,756 $ 59,363 41,851 1,466+ . 22,880 24,230 1,350+ 40,079 38,40 1,670- 32,447 37,973 37,874 5,5265,427- 3,9334,564- 68,860 67,504 $ 12,516 21,707 10,186 11,652 9,589+ 59,277 63,210 63,841 Sari Fran. 4,486- 300+ 59,271 68,86o Dallas $ 6,493 2,007 166- 36,600 .36,900 Kan. City 38,409 50,788 12,379- SUM'ARY FOR SYSTFN Bills Discounted for week $12,652Bills Purchased for week Government Securities for week 2: ;:2 46 14,446To al Earnin,c Assets for week t Com9arison of Weekly Average of Earning Assets Dec. 29, 1926 to 120,442Oct. 19, 1927 with sere period 1926 Comparison of Weekly Average of Egrning Assets Dec. 29, 1926 to Oct. 19, 1927 wit4 entire year 1926 147,84212,203+ Comparison of Earning Assets Oct. 19, 1927 with Oct. 20, 1926 9,191+ 9,822 10,656 834+ 35,082 35,832 750+ 57,420 68,195 10,775+ 2,959+ 11,672 13,504 1,832+ 31,023 32,227 1,2C4+ 47,492 53,487 5,995+ 53,141 63,902 63,528 43,018 53,501 52,777 10,76110,387- 10,4839,759- 68,195 59,070 53,487 52,045 9,125+ 1,442+ _ 17,512- 9,588 7,424 2,164- 45,802 45,803 1+ 114,753 95,078 19,675- 102,678 115,279 116,047 12,60113,369- 95,078 123,044 27,966- Totals $ 430,249 417,597 12,652- 274,361 282,503 8,142+ 510,129 500,393 9,736- 1,215,559 1,201,113 14,446- 1,054,691 1,175,133 1,202,533 120,442147,842- 1,201,113 1,188,910 12,203+ November 1, 1927. The committee has considered the confidential preliminary memoranda submitted by the Chairman, and upon the basis of the memor— anda proposes that the open market policy of the System until March 1st next, unless developments not now anticipated recuire a further review, shall be: to maintain stable rates for money at about present levels and prevent further imports of gold. In order to carry out the above policy, the committee would adopt the following program and procedure: (1) The plan of offsetting gold movements by narchases and sales of securities would be continued as heretofore. (2) Any considerable advance in rates for money towards the end of the year would be dealt with only if necessary by temporary pur— chases of securities. (3) During the return flow of currency which usually occurs in January, sales of securities would be made in amounts sufficient to Insure retirement of the seasonal issue and prevent its being added to member bank reserves. (4) /n event of the renewal of a gold movement to the United States, gold may be purchased abroad in London, and possibly in Holland and Switzerland, if necessary, at approximately their gold export points, or exchange on those countries may be purdhased, so as to arrest, if possible, a further importation of gold. The limit unon such purchases to be t1C0,000,000. Such nurchases would also be offset the same as the gold movement. Gold or exchange purchased may be invested in bills or employed at interest, as in the case of the bank of England account. I 2 (5) The considerations which will guide the committee as to when and for what amounts such transactions shall be made, are; (a) The amount of borrowings by member banks from the Reserve banks; (b) The general level of interest rates; (c) The movement of foreign exchange rates as an indication of possible gold imports. The committee would expect to be charged with the execution of the program for account of those Reserve banks Which approve and partici-oate. 1 November 2, 19, V1A4 OPEN MART COMMITTEE MEETINGS. 1927, March 21. 1. Committee requested authority: To replace 25 millions of Government securities which had run off, leaving System account at only 200 millions. Passed unanimously. 2. Buying 50 millions to replace that amount taken from market by turning 50 millions of Federal Reserve investments for foreign banks into acceptances taken from portfolio of Federal Reserve banks. C.S.H. moved to approve above, but Board, on Millers motion, voted to postpone, stating it was ready to meet Committee at short notice, or would meet Directors of Federal Reserve Bank of New York should the Committee authorize them to speak for it. C.S.H. alone voted No. 1927, May 12. Meeting. Committee recommended: 1. Replacing 90 millions sold to pay for the 60 millions gold bought from Bank of France, and about 30 millions sent by Bank oT: Fraace to United States, thus reducing System account to about 100 millions. 2. Committee recommended that System account be gradually increased to 250 millions. C.S.H. moved to ap?rove increasing system account to 250 millions. On motion of Miller postpcneuzatil another meeting be called by Governor Cris,after consultation with Secretary Mellon, Secretary Mellon, C.S.H. and James voted No. 1927, May 13. C.S.H. moves apnroval of Committee recommendation to increase snecial account to 250 millions. Platt moved approval, but that purchase should proceed slowly with a view to the possibility that it may not be advisable to purchase the full amount within the time fixed, that is, up to Au7ust 1. 1927. Secretary Mellon said he did not object to this, and C.S.H. withdrew his motion. Miller moved in substitution: 1. Ap-)roving statement in report tnat no further securities be sold at the present time. 2. Disapproving further purchases up to 250 millions. Miller's motion was lost, Secretary Mellon, tae Comptroller, C.S.H., Platt and James voting No. Governor Seay, Miller, and Cunningham voted Aye. Platt's motion of anproval was tnen carried, everyone voting aye except Dr. Miller, who voted No. 1927, June 23. Board confers with Governor Strong. question arose whether the authority given on May 13th to increase the special account to 25U millions was exhausted by the offsetting purchase of 100 millions against the withdrawal by tne Bank of France fram its New York correspondents of 100 millions. C.S.H. moved that the offsetting purdhases were not to be counted as part of the 250 millions. Passed. 2-..ye: Secretary Mellon, C.S.H., Governor Crissinger, and James No: Miller and Cunninghmn. • lbw v Cony nsc. 31 SOM 7-26 77707RAL RE7RVE BA.77 OF NET= Date October 7, 1927 OFFICE CORRES'ONDEITCE Subject: Finaace Co=anies "Dec- To Governors Conference Frum ializing J.H. Case in Bank Stock Investments. During the past few years several financial cornorations s-oecializing in the ownershio of bank stocks have had rather s-oectaaalar success and have had a widespread effect on bank owner.shin. Their onerations annear to be likely ultimately to bring 'about a widespread develo-oment of branch bankin where nermitted by State - -)orlaws, cr of chain banking where o7eration of branches is not : mitted 7z7 lnpv. The nioneer in this development has been the Bancitaly Colloration, New York City, Which is headed by A. P. Giannini of San Francisco. Its onerations have e77.tended over a number of years and have resulted in buildinp:. the Bank of Italy 7ational Trust and Savings Association into an institUtion of over $600,000,000 denosits with Pg2 branches in tho State of California. The Bancitaly Cor- Doration also has a chain of banks and branches in New York City consisting of the Bowery Ec East River 7ational Bank with 15 branches and denosits of over 490,000,000, and three gmeller rev, 'Tork institutions rihich 7111 nrobably be consolidated into t:hel;ower7 River Yational Bank. rast It also 7nas a heavy investment in a number of Euro-oean banking institutions. In addition to the "Bancitaly Cor- ')oration4 s holdina.s of bank stodk for control -7arnoses, it owns a very large amount of bank stock as investments. "he 7ancitalv Corporation on July 22, 1927 reported a ca7dtal of t7S,750,000, oar- nlus and nrofits of $13g,627,S17 or a total of t217,377,511. VOLUME 174 PAGE 133 narlret value of its outstanding stodk is at c Tesent over $595,000,000. -2In 7ew vo& City the inanciel & Industrial Securiides Cornora- tion is oneratinp in connection with the vanufacturers Trust Com-nr-Inv in a manner somewhat similar to that of the encitaly Cornorption. It is controlled bir 1:21nh Jones -liose brother, rathan S. Jonas, is rrc.siOrnt o' the "-,nufgT,turers Trust Co-,nrinv ,nr1 it lias been used by them in ncouirinr7 honks to be absorbc(1 by the •ranufacturers Trust Corn any. These interests use also several other a"iliated cornorations including the Cnrnorption & qencral Securities, Inc., To-Yer ".anufncturinfr ComnanY, Rodmore Cornoratinn, r,tional Liberty Insurance Com-lanY, /coPles Yationnl vire Tnsurnnce Comnany glad 7n1ti7ore A-crican Insurance Comnanv to carr7- stock of the "grru'rcturers Trust Comnrnv and other financial institutions in -7)-,ich they interested. '0 assist in fl-ose 0n-ra- tions the Financial Rc Inc'usrial Securities Cornoration has at times received larp-e loans from the "anufaetarers Trust Co-nany -rhich have stock later been liauidated from the nroceeds of sole to the nublic of/in the Financial & industrial Securities Cornoration. Its state- ment of February 2, 1027 showed canital stock consisting of preferred t25,0n0,()00, common t20,016,0n0, total ta5,01,000 rthich has a present market value of approximately tleS,nnO,n00. of this corporation annear to 11:-Ive been The transactions or the nurnose of acauirinP: control of banks rather than to hold stocks as investments. Other Comnanies: 1The annarent success of the to above comnanies ^nc' the snectacular rise in the market value of their stocks has recently led to the organization of a considerable ntmber of comnanies of similar character and nur--,ose—i-7:eh are briefly commented unon as follw,,s: National American Company, Inc., 26 Broadway, New York City The capital and aurplus of this company was reported June 30, 1927 as $5,372,046.01. This company is affiliated with the Central Mercan- tile Bank & Trust Comnany whose president, C. Stanley Mitchell is Chairman of the National American Co., Inc. The active officers are: David H. Knott, President; John A. Dilliard, Vice-President; Harold G. _Aron, Treaaurer; Toney A. Hardy, Secretary. This company has recently pur- chased control of several New York City banks, including the Bronx National Bank, Cosmopolitan Dank, Terminal Trust Company and Bank of Coney Island. We are informed that the purpose in purchasing these banks is for resale at a profit rather than for holding as investment or consolidation with the Central Hercantile Bank & Trust Co. and it has recently resold the Bronx National Tiank to the Bank of the Manhattan Company. The National American Co.,Inc. has a aubsidiary known as the National American Secures Company with capital of $250,000. City Financial Corporation, 5th Ave. & 32ndNew York City. The stock of this corporation was offered to shareholders of the Bank of United States on Sgptember 1, 1927. It has been announced that the aggregate capital is to be over $20,000,000 and that the stock offered to the shareholders of the Bank of United States in units of 1,13 ahares Sf Class A and 1 share of Class B at $85.50 per unit has been greatly oversubscribed. The Class B stock has sole voting power. Only the Class A stock has becn offered to the general public, the price being $63 per share. The corporation will be under the management of B. K. Marcus, President, and Saul Singer, Executive Vice-President, of the Bank of ted States, who is presently to resign his bank position to become President of the City Financial Corporation. _4_ Hub Financial Corporation, Yew York City. Announcement of the issuance ond sale of stock of this corporation was made September 21, 1927 by Harry H. Heyman and Julius Blauner who are President and Vice President, respectively, of the Seventh National Bank. The announcement stated that there would be presently issued 100,000 shares of Class A stock and 100,000 Class B stock, the latter to have the sole voting power. At the announced price the stock to be sold 'would bring in capital funds of $6,400,000. Manhattan Financial C,orT.)oration. New York City. On September 26, 1927 an offering of stock in this company was announced with list of directors which include a number of men affiliated with the Times Square Trust Co., New York City. Bernard Reich and John H. Brennen, Chairman of the Board and President, respectively, of the Times Square Trust Company, will be President and Chairman of the Dcecutive Committee of the new cor-ooration. Stock is of three classes, A, B and C, and the advertisement indicates that voting power will rest in the 4,500 shares of Class ri stock which are called II manazement shares". It also apnears that the con-roan:7 will have ca-oital funds of over $6,000,000 as a result of the sale of the stock offered. United Investors Securities Corporation, 551 Fifth Avenue, New York City. The organization of this corporation has been announced by Archibald C. Emery, President of the Hamilton National Bank, Ne--T York City, who is also President and. Chairman of the Investment Committee of this company. The company plans to issue 50,000 shares of 6% preferred stock at $50 per share, 400,000 shares of P.: common non-voting shares at 310, and 20,000 shares of A common voting shares. cate capital funds of $6,500,000 or more. This would indi- It is stated :that the company is formed for the purpose of purchasing, holding and selling high grade securities of municipalities, utilities, industrial companies, railroads and banks. Murray Hill Allied Corporation, New York City. This corporation has been organized as an affiliation of the \ Murray Hill Trust Company. Its capital is reported as $200,000 (10,000 shares at $20 per share) and its purpose is the making of investments not permissible to the trust company under State banking law. Municipal Financial Corporation, 27 Cedar St., N.Y.C., and 3.50 Stone Ave., Brooklyn, N.Y. It was announced on September 14, 1927 that the Municipal Bank of Brooklyn had organized a subsidiary securities company to be known as the Municipal Financial Corporation with an authorized capital of 300,000 shares of no par value of which 170,000 shares were to be offered for public subscription; also that it is expected the corporation will start business with a capital of $10,000,000. President Samuel Barnett of the Municipal Bank has stated that the corporation would do business somewhat along the lines of an investment trust, dealirg in the securities of banks, trust aumpanies, surety companies and other financial institutions. It has also been stated that a primary purpose of this corporation will be to protect the manage.nent of the Municipal Bank from losing control of the institution. First Trust Bank, Inc. (a Delaware Corporation) - New York City. This is a proposition organized by a group consisting of Charles G. Gates, President, formerly of Clarence Hodson, Inc.; Thomas J. Torpey who is reported to be Vice President of the National Surety Company; Harry E. Wheeler, Treasurer, formerly of Sperry & Hutchinson Company; William H. Foss of the Astor MortgaEe Co., 165 Broadway, New York City and Don S. Hutchinson, son of Shelley B. Hutchinson. Shelley B. Hutchinson, formerly of Sperry & Hutchinson Co., is apparently the prime mover in this organization and its stodk is being sold through the First Fiscal Corporation, 522 Fifth Avenue, those connected have poor records. New York City. Some of The amount of authorized capital stock is 120,000 shares and the First Fiscal Corporation recently an— nounced offering of 3,000 shares at $125 per share. The purpose of the company is stated as "chain banking", i.e., the acquisition of the controlling interest in numerous national and state banks and trust companies located in the various cities of the United States. Bankers Capital Corporation, 44 Wall Street, Nev York City. This corporation was incorporated January 19, 1923 to take over the investment banking business of Gunder, Mann & Co. It apnears to operate as a subsidiary, the Eastern Bankers Corporation, 44 Wall Street, New York City. The claimed outstanding capital on December 31, 1926 was $188,900 preferred and $1,000,000 common. It appears to be operating as an investment trust. Bankstoeks Corporation, 27 Pine Street, New York City. This corporation is understood to be affiliated with Shields & Co. and to be operated as an investment trust., A. report obtained March 9, 1925 indicated that its capital has been supplied by issuance of $1,000,000 5% secured gold notes and 150,000 shares no par value common stock. United States Shares Corporation, This is a corporation headed by Travis H. Whitney, Chairman of the Board, who is a Vice President of the Brooklyn Manhattan Transit Company and a former Public Service Commissioner.. Its President is Herbert L. Raekliff. This company buys securities, deposits them r-+ with trustees, 7ho in turn issue participating trust certificates to the purchaser. The Directors have po7er to substitute securities and upon such substitution shareholders ore iven fall information. Among the issues rhich it has announced are tyro series of bank stock trast shares covering ownership in stocks of 30 leading financial institutions of Ne7 York and other large cities. It has recaatly announced the issuance of a series of Canadian bank stock trust shares representing ownership in stock of 9 leading Canadian banks. Bell Financial Corporation, NeT York City. Announcement of the organization of this corporation was made surplus $1,000go. It is re$10,000,000.,/ as October , 1927, its ca-oital being reported ported to have acqaired the Century Bank of Ne7 York, at 23rd. Street between 8th and 9t1, Avenues, and the De7ey State Bank of Brooklyn, N.Y. at Avenue M and East 17th Street. It has also taken over control of the Bell Invostnent Company of 1170 BroadTay, the Elneco Trading Company and the Mortga.r4.e Guarantee & Title Company, Eroadwry & Park Place, New York City. Its directors arc as follo7s: 'Jathan Sado7sky, President of the Bell Investment Co. and Prob. & Trea6. of R. Sadowsky, Inc., cloak manufacturer; Louis Margolis, President of Dewey State Dank; Elias Preiss, President of the Elpeco Tradinz Company; Samuel Kaufman, Director of Times Saunre Trust Company, Philip Maslansky of the Ne7 York Merchandise Company and Samuel Katz of the fur house of that name. Ullited States Financial Cornoration, New York City. It has been reported that this corporation has been organized to deal in bank stocks and it is understood to be closely affiliated -rith the United States Bond & Mortgage Corporation of 8 East 41st Street, NerT York City which advertises itself as tne largest second mortgage institution in Aaerica. It is rumored to have bought control of the zens National Bank of Freeport, N.Y. and to be negotiating to purchase control of the First National Bank of Bell'nore, Y.Y. New Jersey Bankers Securities Coraoration, Passaic, N. J. This company was organized August 18, 1927 7ith authorized capital of 300,000 shares no par valac rhich wes sold to the public at $12.50 Per skare yielding capital fands of approximately $3,750,000. An addi- tional issue of a like number of shares of stock has since been offe,red, the price to the general public being $17.50 per share, and to denositors in banks controlled by the company price is to be $16.50 per share and to original stockholders $15.50 per share, This should give the company additional fands of close to $5,000,000, so that its total capital funds will be close to $8,750,000. The company has already acqui- red control through stock ownership in the following banks: Hobart Trust Company, Service Trust Company, Equitable Title & Mortgage Company of Passaic, N. J., and 7oshingtoa Trust Co., Guaranty Trust Company, Weequahic Trust Com-Dany and Liberty Trust Company of Newark, active movers in the company are Harry .Serer President, and William Harris, Director, both of whom have been subject to unfavorable cSill,ent in the past. They have associated with them on the directorate several men prominent in -public life including United States Senator Edward .Iwz3rs. Our information is that prices paid by the company for banks acquired by it are in some cases considerably above sound value making it very daubtfal i7hether the company can obtain earnings sufficient to yield a reasonable return on the investment. Columbia Investina Company 44 Pine Street, Ne77 York City. The organization of this company was announced September 24, 1927 al.:a it hes offcred 25,000 units of pr ferred rnd comaion stock rhich will .=ive aa ca )itcl of ,P,S25,000. Tho Board of directors will include amoag oth3rs, Michael Hollander, Chairman of e•Sard -9of the Guardian Trust Cempany of Near, T. J., James Rattrv, President of the Guardian Securities Co. of Ne7ark and Arthur M. Lamport, President of the investment banking house of .... M. 11:::ffro rt & Co., New York City. New Jersey Bond & Shareholdim7 Corporation. 17-25 Academy Str., Newark, Announcement of the organization of this company was made October 10, 1927 and following securities offered for sale to the public: 532:- debenture bonds $1,000,000, 71) cumulative preferred stock $500,000, common stock no par value 100,000 shares to be sold at $12.50. The announcement lists a board of directors of 21 members and an advisory council of about 50 members representative of all tarts of the State of Ye- Jersey. Purpose of Finance Companies Specializinp, in Purchase of Bank Stocks The purposes of companies such as those above reviewed in the acquisition of bank stocks may be summarized as follows: 1. To o-Ltain control of banks for ournose of consolidation, 2. To obtain control of banks to be operated as part of a so-called chain. 3. To obtain control for nurpose of early resale at a profit. 4. To control ownership in the interest of the existing management. 5. To obtain and hold relatively moderate amounts of stock for investment purposes. 6. To sell stock to the public at values excessive in relation to the value of the assets acquired by the corporation, the difference accruing to the benefit of the promoters. Probable Effects of the 0.nerations of Comnanies of this Kind: It is well at this time to give careful consideration to the probable effects of the continued and expanded operations of companies such as those which have been mentioned above and new comnanies of similar character whida are likely to be organized. In the ease of a successful and anparently weil managed organization such as that of the Bancitaly Corporation aria the banks which it controls, it may in general be said that the effects -10thus far appear not to have been harmful. Several of the banks in this city which the Bancitaly Corporation interests have taken over were in distinctly unsatisfactory condition and good Tork has been done in clearing un the poor loans. However, the tremendous banking powers which may be 1-ielded by thus controlling a corporation with over „,217,000,000 capital funds invested mostly in bank stocks is a matter of serious concern in a country where the desirability of independent banking units is generally recognized. Moreover, the ability of the corporation to obtain large additional amounts of capital by the sale of its stock to the public has been well demonstrated and it therefore appears Possible that its operations may be and probably will be greatly expanded even from their present wide scope. That has been said of the Bancitaly Corporation is true, though to a smaller degree as yet, of the Financial & Industrial Securities Corporation which is operating along very similar lines although confining its operations thus far, we understand, to New York City. It is to be ex- pected that as imitators engage in similar activities, there will be many instances in which the management of the banks taken over will become poorer rather than be improved. Such a condition, it is to be feared, is already to be noted in the case of the New Jersey Bankers Securities Corporation, as the President of the corporation has, according to authentic information in our files, heretofore engaged in operations, through a trust company of which he is president, of such character as to indicate very definitely that he is not a suitable person to manage banking institutions A very important effect of the operations of corporations specializing in the purchase of bank stocks h. s been to force the prices of • • -11- such stocks to new high levels in many instances not justified by the asset value of the stock nor its present or prospective earning power. While it may be that the rise which has taken place in bank stocks is a part of the general upward movement in securities, it is worthy of note that banks which have been the subject of special attention from financial corporations of this kind had by far the largest increase in market value. The following tabulation Shows the course of average New York City bank stock prices as related to book values and also the movement in the case of individual banks. Market Value of Stocks of Several Selected Now York City Banks 1 9 2 5 Apr.1 Sept.1 350 Bowery & East River N/B $ 230 480 400 Bank Chase National 608 517 National City Bank 377 National Bank of Commerce 343 2,390 2,850 First National Bank 590 450 Seaboard National Bank 290 255 Bank of America 460 506 Corn Exchange Bank 250 250 Municipal Bank 225 225 Mechanics Bank 445 502 Bankers Trust Co. 260 Central Mere. Bank & Tr. 235 300 250 Equitable Trust Co. 370 307 Gaaranty Trust Co. 315 440 Manufacturers Trust Co. 1 9 2 6 Feb.6 Oct.18 1 9 2 7 Feb.3 Aug.1 390 360 405 532 610 605 384 375 2,800 2,525 690 670 300 300 560 585 300 295 285 320 625 640 275 315 270 290 400 380 510 520 400 422 518 425 2,675 695 300 535 315 340 670 295 305 4'15 548 Ratio of Market Value to Book Value (Book Value - 100) 1 9 26 19 25 6 Cct.18 Feb. Apr. 1 Sept.1 188 178 175 117 Bowery & East River N/B 211 315 298 253 Chase National Bank 270 263 234 270 National City Bank 143 144 142 132 Nat'l Bank of Commerce 334 298 314 356 First National Bank 252 255 219 175 Seaboard National Ek. 168 169 162 139 America of Bank 226 238 213 196 Corn Exchange Bank 630 540 575 524 3,450 905 345 575 390 345 880 328 385 572 835 19 27 Feb.3 Aug. 1 280 184 271 215 299 222 191 157 380 306 306 246 191 166 230 211 • • (Confd) Ratio of Market Vnlue to Book Value 100) (Book 7alue 1 9 2 7 1 9 26 1 9 25 3 Aug. 1 Feb. 18 Oct. Feb. 6 Apr. 1. Sept. 1 Municipal Bank Mechantos Bank Bankers Trust Company Central Mere, Bk.& Tr. Equitable Trust Company Guaranty Trust Co. Manufacturers Trust Co. 185 186 191 147 169 173 148 180 179 209 156 199 204 198 209 242 251 181 173 202 226 203 216 229 149 155 202 208 210 254 239 168 174 218 217 236 245 300 183 215 274 312 It appears obvious that in general the price of these stocks has been advanced to a point where earnings cannot yield more than a very moderate return on the investment and that in some instances the banks earnings must be phenomenal to give even a fair return. When it is re- called that bank earnings for the past few years have been in considerable nart due to nrofit on security transactions due to a continuously rising security market, it appears clear that bank stock prices have been driven to a point considerably above sound values. It is not at all improbable that the spread of the investment trust idea has had an important part in causing the upward movement of stocks of other classes, such as insurance companies, etc. Comment has been frequently made that many of these investment trusts are beginning their operations at a time when the prices of the securities which they will acquire are very high and it is greatly to be feared that should it later develop that such organizations cannot meet the expectations of profit which investors to therein have been led to entertain, a denouement highly dangerous the general situation may result. It seems very certain therefore that while the operations of some as a whole of the companies of this kind may not be harmful, the movement scrutiny is accompanied by grave dangers and should be subjected to close rff ll a 7 46 46 • w -13- on, both State ilities of bank sunervisi sib pon res h wit d rge cha se by tho ly published kes of :ew Jersey recent Sto or ern Gov mer For al. ion and Nat g against king Department protestin Ban sey Jer New the to ter an open let that a law be enacted of banks and suggesting corporations owing chain ates falling cks to individuals and est restricting ownership of bank sto h the New Jersey d. Parties associated wit heir to such securities handle -Governor Stokes' have taken exce-Dtion to Ex on ati por Cor s tie uri Sec s ker Ban to the New Jerzey that he does not refer ted sta now has he and , ent statem ws advanced announcement. The vie his in on ati por Cor s tie uri Bankers Sec Tide support among r, will undoubtedly have by Ex-Governor Stokes, howeve desirable that conmen and it appears most careful bankers and business be kept within whereby this movement may ns mea to en giv be n tio era sid safe bounds. ences of the e there be held confer dat ly ear an at t Tha :1 on ati Recommend the Curwith the Comptroller of ks Ban e erv Res l era Fed officers of the erintendents of Banks k Examiners and the Sup rency, the Chief National Ban and working out plans ng this general problem for the purpose of consideri Among the measures eral Reserve District. for dealing with it in each Fed lowing: which seem desirable are the fol 1. in purchase ns of companies engaged Examinations or investigatio authorby the appropriate State of bank stocks should be made ies pliolish made to have such compan ities and efforts should be dition and of their financial con from time to time statements which d by them and the price at lists of the securities hel they are being carried. 2. in ations of banks included Frequent and searching examin panies should be made. chains controlled by these com -14- 3. That in the examinations of all banks, loans to comnanies of this kind or loans based upon their stock,should be set out in the examination report. 4. That in case where circumstances warrant, the attention of Attorney General of the State be called to the operations of any particular company which is engagingln illegal practices. Copy Report of the Committee on Bank and Public Relations to the Agents! Conference - November 1927. The amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, which provides for indeterminate charters for the Federal Reserve Banks leaves us free to devise a system public relations program which may have for its aim the gradual development of better understanding of the System over a long period of years. The discussion which cen- tered about the passage of this amendment has moreover indicated wide public appreciation of the value of the Federal Reserve System. Future Public Relations Program In this generally favorable atmosphere it becomes possible to consider broadly the System's public relations policy for coming years, and it is proposed in this report to sketch some of the principles which may well determine that policy and some of the methods which may well be cm-oloyed. At the outset a few axiomatic principles may be set forth which are basic to Federal Reserve public relations work. 1. It must in no way savor of propaganda. As a public institution the Federal Reserve System must always be in a dignified position. Propaganda arouses hostility and disrespect. VOLUME 174 PAGE 135 -2- 2. Public relati3ns work cannot be done by an organized publicity staff, because it would savor of propaganda; sudh a staff would not have the necessary technical knowledge for dealing with Federal Reserve questions; (c) public relations is a matter of personal relations in the last analysis and hence must be done by people who are an integral part of each Reserve Bank. (a) (b) 3. It must not be ccntroversial. and is dangerous. 4. There are three general fields of public relations work in the following order of importance (a) Controversy arouses enmity The member and nonmember banks. The best advertisement is a satisfied customer. Schools and colleges. These are the places where public opinion is basically formed. (c) The general public. Su.ested methods for public relations work in these three fields, now together with a summary of what the System is/doing, are contained in the following paragraphs. 4.. Member and NTonmember Banks. In every community it is the bank.er and the college teacher who are the experts on the Federal Reserve System, and the banker's opinion carries the weight of personal know1c4;c. The banker is the customer of the Federal Reserve System, who must be satisfied. ,3- Thefe are three ways in which th.1 banker gets his impression of his Federal Reserve Bank, - personal contact, correspondence, and literature. By far the most important of these is, I am sure we would all agree, the personal contact. Pvsonal Contact. The maintaining of effective personal contacts with the banks in our districts is laborious, but essential to a common understanding. The three usual methods of contact are, - when we go to see the banker, when he comes to see us, and when we meet on common ground at conventions and group meetings. Visits to Banks. Of these three the most effective is our visit to the member banker. Such a visit at once indicates our regard for him and puts him in the position of the courteous host. Hothing can take the place of these visits. In this connection the following table gives the customary report of the visits made to banks in the different districts. It indicates that during the year, from September 1, 1926 through August 31, 1927, the member banks in the Boston, Yew York, Cleveland, and St. Louis districts were visited on the average twice a year; that the member banks in the Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, and San Francisco districts were visited on the average about once a year, but that the member banks in the Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Kansas City districts were visited considerably less than once a year on the average. Some of the Reserve Banks have to contend with the isolation of many of their member banks, but some whose districts are most difficult to cover have averaged a visit a year. VISITS TO BAYKS Numbor of lember Banks Aug. 31, 1927 Sept. 1925 to Aug. 1926 Sept. 1928 to Aug. 1927 BolAon 414 902 865 Yew York 929 1,283 1,963 Philadelphia 774 923 869 Cleveland 837 1,818 1,361 Richmond 568 804 154 Atlanta 469 52 51 Chicago 1,304 1,945 1,219 St. Louis 597 1,842 1,085 Minneapolis 741 135 121 Kansas City 975 445 4'18 Dallas 818 1,134 1,003 673 9,029 827 12,110 693 10,133 San Francisco In this connection note should be taken of the fact that the total number of visits to banks this year, numbering: 10,000, was approximately 2,000 less than in the preceding year, which in turn was 1e. before. than the year Your committee is of the view that decreases in bank visits are of doubtful wisdom, and believes that there is no single method of public relations work which is so fruitful of better understanding as visits to member banko. -5- The quality of the visits is fully as important as the quantity, and in this connection data collected at the suggestion of Governor Norris ate of interest. Range of Salaries: The salaries paid in the eleven reporting banks are shown by the following figures of number of outside men or officers devoting practically their entire time to Bank Relations work: Number of Men 1 Range of Salaries $2,000 to $ 2,499 3 2,500 " 2,999 4 3,000 " 3,499 4 3,500 " 3,999 6 4,000 " 4,499 2 4,50Q " 4,999 1 6,000 1 7,000 " 1 7,499 10,000 Thus, of the 20 outside men (other than officers) 8 received $4,000 or more, and 12 less than $4,000 per annum. It appears to your committee that it would be wise to work in the direction of using in this important work higher class men than appear to be indicated by some of the salaries paid. It is clearly true that the effectiveness of visits depends on the character of the personv21 makes the visits, and a visit by an important officer of a Reserve Bank will often do more in demonstrating the Reserve Bank's interest in the member bank, and more in clearing up difficulties, than several visits by a bank clerk. ,A. number of the Reserve Banks have • • • 1 followed the practice of sending out Deputy Governors, or even the Governor or Chairman, for rapid trips to visit a number of member banks, and they have always reported most favorable results. From a study of the answers received to questionnaire from eleven banks so far reporting, the following comments are suggested: The organization of the Bank: Relations work varies greatly in the different districts. In three, namely: Atlanta, Minneapolis and San Francisco, there is no special department for the work, it being carried on by officers as their time permits. In some districts it is the chief or sole work of an officer supervising it, and in others it appears to be a secondary consideration. In some, both member and nonmember banks are visited; in others little attention is given to nonmember banks. The frequency of visits to banks varies widely, some aiming: to cover all banks regularly twice a year; some once a rear, and others even less. Bankers' Visits to Reserve Banks. Second only to a visit to the member bank itself may be ranked the entertainment of member and nonmember banks at a Reserve Bank. guest always feels more kindly toward his host. A The methods of carrying out this plan which have been followed by the Reserve Banks, are the stock.holders' meeting, the small group meeting, and the less formal entertainment of visiting bankers. a Bankers' Conventions and Group Meetings: We believe the general principle to be followed is that the Reserve Bank should be represented at every bankers' convention or group meeting in the district, whenever it is at all possible. Correspondence. Our most frequent contact with member banks L. through correspon- -7 dence, and from time to time it seems worth shile to survey this correspondence to see that it is as human as possible and is conducted by people who deal intelligently with problems which come to them. Printed :aterial. There is such a large mass of -)rinted material coming to the desk of every banker, so little of it is read, and the preparation of such material is so time-consuming that the principle of selection needs to be observed in deciding how much energy may be given to any project for the preparation of an article. Fortunately the System has many friends who write, and many sympathetic articles appear from their pens without any solicitation from the Resrve Banks. Perhaps the -srime essential in this connection is that each Reserve Bank should have someone on its staff who is qualified to deal with the writing fraternity, to provide material, to discuss problems, and when necessary to take his own pen in hand. Most writers are human beings and can be reached by precisely the same methods of personal contact as have been cited above for member banks. Schools and Colleges. Some years ago economics was taught in small doses only in colleges; today it is taught in large doses in colleges and in small doses in high schools, preparatory schools, and in the American Institute of Banking, and similar organizations. Thousands of students who graduate from our schools and colleges each year have been inoculated with some kind of idea about the Federal Reserve System. Then one considers over a term of years the influence of these -)eople on public opinion, it becomes clear that here is a point at which the System may well spend considerable • -8- energy to see that the inoculation is properly done. The following means of influencing the teaching of banking in schools and colleges are suggested. 1. Textbook.. Offic_rs of the System have already done much in the preparation of textbook material in the publication of the Richmond letters, and books by Harding, Goldenweiser, and Burgess. 2. Discussions in professional journals. Teachers of economics read and get neny of their ideas from these journals. Here the problem is to see that there are alwa7s in the System a number of officers qualified to write acceptably and to deal with economics and writers. Every Reserve Bank should have someone who talks the language of the economist, can help in the writing of articles, and perhaps write and speak himself. 3. Visits to the Reserve Eanks. A number of the Reserve Banks have had excellent results from inviting college and school classes to visit the Reserve Bank buildings, to see the Federal Reserve film, and have the operations explained by a guide. In this way many thousands of students have been given some definite conception of what the Federal Reserve System is. The Federal Reserve film has proved particularly valuable. It has also proved valuable to have some simple liter-Iture about the System to distribute. General Public There are two principal ways in which the Reserve Banks can maintain some contact with the general public. The first is through the press, and the problem here is not to create interest for that exists already, but to make available to writers facts and explanations as to the System's operations. The prime necessity at this point is that each Reserve Bank shall have some officer who is qualified to deal with journalists and writers, and who has authority to talk with them freely, though not for quotation. The second means of contact with the public is through speaking • • h at such organizations as rotary clubs, churches, etc. 'Then one considers the small proportion of the -population that can be reached through speaking, the efforts may seem futile, and vet it remains true, as it always has been and as is recognized in every political campaign, that the public address is one of the best methods of influencing Ipublic thought. The people who come to such meetings are likely to be the leaders in any community, and whcn an important Federal .eserve officer goes to such a meeting half of his otject is achieved by his very attendance, because he has shown himself ready to take -people into his confidence and has not remained aloof. For these reasons your committee believes that each Reserve Bank should have an organized plan for providing speakers for meetings and that these speakers should be, as far as -possible, responsible officers of the eserve Banks Tho are able to speak with authority. The following figtroes show the number of soeeches reported by each Reserve Bank during the year, September 1926 through August 1927. SPEECHES MADE Sept.1925 to Aug. 1923 Sept.1926 to Aug. 1927 Boston 57 37 New York 71 62 Philadelphia 17 10 Cleveland 43 31 Richmond 16 8 Atlanta 5 3 Chicago 25 15 St. Louis 32 21 ,e2e • A -10- Minneapolis 65 52 Kansas City 25 25 Dallas 25 33 36 418 31 328 San Francisco Total The Program in Summary In order to summarize the foregoing the committee suggests the adoption by this conference, and by each one of the Federal Reserve Banks, of the following minimum program of bonk and public relations: Bank and Public Relations 11.inimum Program Banks. 1. At least one visit a year to each member bank. 2. Representation at bankers' conventions, or group meetings in the district, whenever possible. Schools and.Colleges. Someone on the staff of each Reaerve Bank who talks the language of the economist and maintains contact with schools, colleges, and professional literature. 2. A plan for visits by college classes to the Reserve Bank - including the distribution of suitable literature. The General Public. 1. Someone on the staff of each Reserve Bank who is available for contaCt with journalists and writers. 2. An organized plan for providinE speakers for meetings. W. A. geath Geo. DeCamp Oscar Newton