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THE VOLUME OF CONSUMER
INSTALMENT CREDIT, 1929-38
DUNCAN HOLTHAUSEN
MALCOLM MERRIAM
ROLF NUGENT

NATIONAL BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC RESEARCH

CONFIDENTS

<
I

NATIONAL
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC
RESEARCH
INCORPORATED

OFFICERS: George Soute, Chairman; David Friday, President; W. I. Crum, Vice-President Shepard Morgan,
Treasurer} W. J. Carson, Executive Director; Martha Anderson, Editor
RESEARCH STAFF: Wesley C. Mitchell, Director; G. W. Blattner, A. F. Burns, Solomon Fabricant, Milton
Friedman, Simon Kuznets, F. R. Macaulay, F. C. Mills, Leo Wolman, R. A. Young, Eugen Altschul, Associate
DIRECTORS AT LARGE: Chester I. Barnard, H. S. Dennison, G. M. Harrison, O. W. Knauth, H. W. Laidler,
L C. Marshall, George O. May, Shepard Morgan, G.E. Roberts, Becrdsley Ruml, George Soule, N. I. Stone
DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT: W. L Crum, Harvard; E. E. Day, Cornell; G. S. Ford, Minnesota,
F. P. Graham, North Carolina} H. M. Groves, Wisconsin; W. H. Hamilton, Ya/e, H. A. Millis, Chicago; Wesley
C Mitchell, Columbia, A. H. Williams, Pennsylvania
DIRECTORS APPOINTED BY OTHER ORGANIZATIONS: F. M. Feiker, American Engineering Council; David
Friday, American Economic Association; Lee Galloway, American Management Association; Winfleld W.
Siefler, American Statistical Association; Malcolm Muir, National Publishers Association, Matthew Woll,
American Fedtfttfion of labor
1819 BROADWAY-NEW YORK - COIumbus 5-3615

FINANCIAL RESEARCH PROJECT
Address reply to
'Hillside', W. 254th St. and Independence Ave., Riverdale, N. Y.
Telephone: Kingf bridge 9-8536

February 6, 1940
Mr. We McC. Martin, President
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
411 Locust Street
St. Louis, Missouri
Dear Mr. Martin:
We enclose for your information a copy of our special statistical study,
The Volume of Consumer Instalment Credit, 1929-38, prepared by the National
Bureau in collaboration with the Marketing Research Division of the United States
Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce and the Department of Consumer Credit
Studies of the Russell Sage Foundation.
The importance of this study is that it presents for the first time reliable
monthly estimates, over a period of ten years, covering the principal segments of
consumer instalment credit, and annual estimates of these segments combined* The
lack of such data has long been a barrier to an understanding of the slgatticance
of consumer instalment credit in our financial system, and one of the original objectives of the consumer instalment financing project was to develop quantitative
measures to fill this gap. In this connection, we are gratified to inform you that
the tJnited States Department of Commerce has provided for the continuation of these
estimates under its auspices, and that ultimately the Department hopes to make them
available on a current basis*
Our estimates are broken down into two main instalment groups, one covering
principal retail establishments (automobile dealers, department stores, furniture
stores, household appliance stores, jewelry stores, and all others), and the second
covering cash loan agencies (personal finance companies, industrial banking companies, personal loan departments of commercial banks, and credit unions). I attach a summary of the principal findings of the study. We should greatly appreciate
receiving your comments and criticisms.
Very truly yours,

Director, Financial Research Program
RAYtLR

lacs.



National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Financial Research Program

February 1, 1940

The Volume of Consumer Instalment Credit, 1929-38

Summary of Findings
Total consumer instalment indebtedness was greatest in 1937, when it averaged
#3,700,000,000.
Debt arising from retail instalment sales accounted for 72 percent of this
$3,700,000,000 volume, and debt arising from cash loans accounted for 28 percent. Quantitatively, cash loan indebtedness was a much more significant
factor in this year than in 1929, when it totaled 17 percent of consumer instalment indebtedness. This shift indicates that cash loan instalment credit
is characterized by a more pronounced secular growth than retail instalment
credit.
From the close of 1937 to the close of 1938, outstandings of all cash lending
agencies combined increased 9 percent. During the same period, outstandings
arising from instalment sales of retail establishments dropped 20 percent.
The credit extensions of automobile dealers, averaging at least 50 percent of
all instalment credit granted by retailers during the ten-year period, accounted for the largest proportion of credit extended by any one type of retail establishment. In the cash loan group, personal finance companies accounted for the largest share of instalment loans made by cash lending institutions during this period.
During 1934-38, the volume of loans made through personal loan departments of
commercial banks increased over eight-fold. This was the greatest secular
growth revealed by any agency. Whereas in 1929 commercial banks extended 7
percent of all instalment loans granted to consumers by the four principal
cash lending institutions, by 1938 these banks accounted for 24 percent of
all loans made by these same institutions.
Month-end outstanding figures indicate that total consumer instalment indebtedness during the ten-year period covered in our study reached a peak point
in September of 1937 after an increase of 181 percent from March 1933, the
low point. Prior to 1933, instalment indebtedness has been greatest at the
close of October 1929.
Consumer instalment credit outstandings fall off rapidly during periods of
severe business recession, owing to the excess of repayments over new credits
granted; and they rise rapidly in periods of revival, when new credits granted
exceed repayments. The cyclical response of retail instalment credit, however, appears to be prompter and the amplitude of the movement greater than
in the case of cash loan instalment credit. Thus, average outstandings of
retail instalment credit declined 57 percent from 1929 to 1933 and rose 151
percent from 1933 to 1937; average cash loan instalment outstandings declined
18 percent from 1930 to 1933 and rose 122 percent to 1938.




* * *

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Confidential

Financial Research Program

(Not to be quoted)




THE VOLUME OF CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT, 1929-38

by

Duncan M. Holthausen, Research Associate,
Financial Research Staff, National Bureau
of Economic Research

Malcolm L. Merriam, Chief, Credit Analysis
Unit, Marketing Research Division, Bureau
of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, United
States Department of Commerce

Rolf Nugent, Director, Department of Consumer
Credit Studies, Russell Sage Foundation

February 1, 1940




P r e f a c e

THIS study presents monthly and annual estimates of the quantity of consumer instalment credit, including both retail instalment (sales finance) credit and cash loan instalment credit,
for the period 1929-38. It was initiated in 1938 as one phase
of the National Bureau's investigation of consumer instalment
financing, the first project under the program of research in
finance supported by special grants from the Association of
Reserve City Bankers and the Rockefeller Foundation,
The estimates have been prepared by Duncan Holthausen in
collaboration with Rolf Nugent, Director of the Division of
Consumer Credit of the Russell Sage Foundation, and Malcolm
Merriam, Chief of the Credit Analysis Unit of the Marketing
Research Division, United States Department of Commerce. Mr.
Holthausen, who was in general charge of the statistical work,
is responsible for the first draft of the manuscript. Mr. Nugent prepared the year-end estimates of outstandings of personal
finance companies, industrial banking companies, personal loan
departments of commercial banks, and credit unions, and collaborated in the preparation of the monthly series for these same
agencies. Mr. Merriam contributed much special information on
retail instalment credit, derived from the Retail Credit Surveys made annually under his direction by the Bureau of Foreign
and Domestic Commerce. At all stages of the work close cooperative relations were maintained by the collaborators, and the
resulting estimates are in a very real sense their joint product.
Mr. Holthausen*s original manuscript has been revised and elaborated in the light of criticisms and suggestions made by Mr. Merriam and Mr. Nugent*
For suggestions as to approach and method in the planning
and development of the present estimates of consumer instalment
credit, we are greatly indebted to W. W. Riefler of the Institute for Advanced Study, and Chairman of the National Bureau's
Committee on Research in Finance, and to Simon Kuznets of the
University of Pennsylvania and the research staff of the National Bureau. Mr. Riefler especially kept in close contact with
the statistical work and assisted in the solution of many technical problems.
The preparation of these estimates has been greatly facilitated by the cordial cooperation of public agencies and trade
associations interested in consumer instalment financing, as
well as by private institutions actively engaged in the field.

- i -




We are obligated for assistance and materials to the research
divisions of the following public agencies: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Farm Credit Administration;
and Federal Housing Administration• The trade associations
which have cooperated generously in our work include American
Industrial Bankers Association; Automobile llanufacturers Association; Edison Electric Institute; National Association of
Sales Finance Companies; National Automobile Dealers Association; National Retail Goods Association; and National Retail
Furniture Association, Leading sales finance companies, personal finance companies, industrial banking concerns, commercial banks operating personal loan departments, credit unions,
retailers and manufacturers have responded graciously to our
specific requests for information and we are glad to acknowledge our indebtedness to them.
The successful outcome of this statistical undertaking
is due largely to the cordial cooperation received from the
Russell Sage Foundation and the United States Department of
Commerce, and the National Bureau welcomes the opportunity to
express its appreciation to these agencies. The estimates
themselves fill a notable gap in existing quantitative data
pertaining to the consumer credit field. In recognition of
their importance, the Department of Commerce has provided for
their continued preparation under its auspices, on a current
basis, by the Credit Analysis Unit, Marketing Research Division of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
Bettina Sinclair has been in full charge of editing this
manuscript, and both the text and the tables have greatly benefited from her careful work* Mr. Holthausen was assisted in
preparing these data by the following staff members of the Consumer Instalment Financing Project of the National Bureau:
Mary Deeley, who carried the brunt of the statistical tabulations; Esther Skala, who prepared the chart forms; and Aileen
Barry and Dorothy Weitzel, who assisted generally in the statistical work.

Ralph A. Young
Director, Financial Research Frogram

February 1, 1940

- ii -




TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Number
Preface

Chapter
. I
II

III

Title
(1-1-4)

Aim and Scope
Basic Sources and Coverage of the Data

(II-1-4)

Retail Instalment Group

II-l

Cash Loan Instalment Group

II-2

Estimates of Retail Instalment Credit

(III-1-19)

Individual Retail Series

IV

111-10

Automobile Dealer Series

111-10

Department Store Series

III-ll

Furniture Store Series

111-14

Household Appliance Store Series

111-15

Jewelry Store Series

111-17

"All Other" Stores Series

111-18

Monthly Totals for the Five Principal Retail Instalment Credit Establishments

111-19

Estimates of Cash Loan Instalment Credit

(lV-1-ll)

Commercial Bank Series

IV-5

Credit Union Series

IV-6

Industrial Banking Company Series

IV-8

Personal Finance Company Series

IV-9

Unregulated Lender Series

IV-10

FBA Title I Loan Series

IV-11

- iii -




TABLE CF CONTENTS (continued)

Chapter
V

Title
Estimates of Retail and Cash Loan Instalment
Credit Combined

Page
Number

(V-l-5)

APPENDICES
Appendix
A

Tables on Retail Consumer Instalment Credit
Tables A-l to A-l?

B

1-25

Tables on Cash Loan Consumer Instalment Credit
Tables B-l to B-14

C

1-17

Tables on Retail and Cash Loan Consumer Instalment Credit Combined
Tables C-l to C-4

1-4

D

Methods of Estimate and Limitations of the Data

E

Comparison of the National Bureau's Estimates
with Those of the Russell Sage Foundation

- iv -

1-23

1-3




LIST

Chart
Number
I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

OF CHARTS

Title

Fage
Number

Monthly T o t a l s of I n s t a l m e n t O u t s t a n d i n g s
f o r Five Types of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s
and f o r t h e Five Types Combined, 1926-1938

III-4

Average D u r a t i o n of I n s t a l m e n t I n d e b t e d ness i n Five Types of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s ,
1928-1938

III-7

I n s t a l m e n t P a l e s a s a P e r c e n t of T o t a l P a l e s
of Each of Five Types of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s , 1925-1938

III-9

Monthly T o t a l s of I n s t a l m e n t C r e d i t Granted,
Repayments and Outstandings for Five Types
of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s and for t h e Five
Types Combined
111-12-13
Monthly T o t a l s of I n s t a l m e n t Loan Outstandi n g s for Four Types of Lending I n s t i t u t i o n s
and f o r the Four Types Combined, 1929-1938

IV-3

Monthly T o t a l s of I n s t a l m e n t Loans F a d e ,
Repayments and O u t s t a n d i n g s for Four Types
of Lending I n s t i t u t i o n s , 1929-1938

IV-7

Average Annual I n s t a l m e n t Outstandings f o r
A l l Types of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s and
Lending I n s t i t u t i o n s Combined, 1929-1938

V-2

Monthly T o t a l s of I n s t a l m e n t O u t s t a n d i n g s
f o r Five Types of R e t a i l E s t a b l i s h m e n t s
and Four Types of Lending I n s t i t u t i o n s
Coirbined, 1929-1938

V-4

- v _




CHAPTER I

A i m

a n d

S c o p e




I

Aim

and

Scope

WITHIN the last two decades the business of extending consumer instalment credit has grown rapidly, effecting far-reaching changes in the
purchasing habits of the public, as well as in the techniques of marketing and banking, yet there has been a scarcity of quantitative data
whereby the volume of such credit might be measured.

These statisti-

cal gaps the present bulletin seeks to fill.
The term consumer instalment credit, as employed in this study,
means credit to consumers which entails the payment of principal and
interest in prescheduled amounts at regular intervals.

There are two

chief types of institutions which extend such credit - the retail establishment selling goods and the cash lending agency advancing funds.
The aspects of instalment credit with which we are here concerned are:
the volume of instalment credit granted, the volume of repayments, the
amount of outstanding receivables, and the net change in such outstandings.

By credit granted we mean the actual volume of instalment credit

extended to consumers through the medium of instalment sales or cash
loans.

Outstandings represent the amount of consumer instalment debt

at a given moment of time, for example at the end of a month or the
end of a year. Repayments are the instalment payments made on all outstanding amounts of credit granted. Average outstandings are considered to be the average amount of consumer instalment debt during a
specified interval of time - in this instance one year. Net credit

I - 1




1-2

change is the amount by which credit granted is greater or less than
repayments during a certain time interval; in other words, it is the
change in outstandings during the time interval.

In the absence of

any statement to the contrary, each of the items just described includes finance or interest charges for use of the credit.
In conformity with our definition of instalment credit, we are
presenting in this bulletin estimates of the volume of such credit
derived from analyses of two bodies of data - one on retail instalment sales and the other on cash loans.

In the retail group the se-

ries cover dealers in new and used passenger cars, department stores,
furniture stores, household appliance stores, jewelry stores, and an
ff

all other' stores classification.

The cash loan group comprises

series for the personal loan departments of commercial banks, credit
unions, industrial banking companies, personal finance companies, unregulated lenders, and the loans of $2000 or less made by all types
of lending institutions combined, which are insured by the Federal
Housing Administration under Title I of the National Housing Act.
With the exception of the last two sources of cash loans, the
series for each of these individual classifications in both retail
credit and cash loan credit run annually from 1929 through 1938, and
include the volume of credit granted, repayments, outstandings and
net credit change.

The unregulated lender and IHA classifications

cover only outstandings and net credit change.
principal types of retail establishments V

Series on the five

have been developed

1/ Dealers in new and used automobiles, department stores, furniture stores, household appliance stores and jewelry stores.




1-3

monthly from 1929 through 1938 for all credit items; those for three
of these retail outlets - automobile dealers, department stores, and
furniture stores - extend back to 1926.

In the cash loan field, the

industrial banking company and the personal finance company series
run monthly from 1929 through 1938 for all credit items; the commercial bank and credit union series continue monthly from 1929 through
1938 on outstandings and net credit change only (for the period 193438 the commercial bank series covers all credit items), while the unregulated lender and MIA. series run annually for 1929-38 and 1934-38
respectively covering outstandings and net credit change.
The reader is cautioned to bear in mind the following significant limitations to the estimates presented in this study:
1. All outstandings estimates listed by type of retail establishment represent the amount of consumer debt originating in retail instalment sales
regardless of whether the retailer himself carries
the instalment paper as an account receivable item
or has sold part or all of the instalment paper to
outside agencies (i.e., sales finance companies,
commercial banks, industrial banking companies, and
all other purchasers of consumer instalment notes
from retailers).
2.

Prepayments of instalment accounts, renewals of
notes, delinquencies and repossessions are not accounted for in the repayments and outstandings estimates for the automobile dealer series.

3.

Credit granted estimates for all types of lending
institutions include renewals of old loan b.alances,
and repayments estimates include collections on
loans renewed. Thus the amount of credit granted
(or loans made) by cash lending agencies cannot be
considered to refer exclusively to new loans extended, and the volume of repayments to such agencies cannot be considered to refer only to repayments on new loans.

4.

Repayments include charge-offs on bad loans in all
series except that for automobile dealers.




1-4

5.

Interest charges are not included in the personal finance company series, since this type
of agency makes its charge each month on the
unpaid balance.

Appendix D of this bulletin discusses in detail these and other
limitations of the data.

It contains also an exposition of the methods

employed in the development of these series.

* * *




CHAPTER I I
B a s i c

S o u r c e s

C o v e r a g e
t h e

D a t a

of

a n d




II

Basic
S o u r c e s
of
the
Data!/

and

C o v e r a g e

Retail Instalment Group
THE types of retail establishments for which the estimates of instalment credit have been developed are in large measure classified according to the 1935 Census of Business.^/ The department store and
jewelry store categories are identical with those of the Census. The
furniture store group combines the Census classifications:

furniture

stores, floor-coverings and drapery stores, and other home furnishings stores* The household appliance store group includes two of the
Census classifications: household appliance and radio stores, and
radio dealers.
^

e

"all other" stores classification as a whole covers all

types of retail establishments, except the five principal types just
mentioned, which grant credit to consumers on an instalment basis and
are so considered in the 1935 Census. It comprises country general
stores, drygoods and general merchandise stores, gasoline filling stations, automobile tire and accessory stores, the entire apparel group,
hardware stores, book stores, sporting goods stores, florists, secondhand stores, and a number of others.

1/

For a detailed discussion of the sources of data, see Appendix D.

2/ See Census of Business: 1935, Retail Distribution, vol. 1, pp. 4-03
through 4-08.

II - 1




II - 2

The automobile dealer group, on the other hand, is not based upon
the Census classification. The estimates for this group were worked
out from numbers of cars sold as reported to the Automobile Manufacturers Association, and represent automobile instalment credit initiated
by all dealers in new and used passenger cars. The figures do not
include automobile dealers1 instalment sales of trucks and accessories,
or repairs paid for on an instalment basis*
Finally, it should be stated that none of our estimates covers
the instalment sales of lumber and building material dealers, farm
supply and implement stores, office equipment stores, and a group of
other retail enterprises. It is broadly true, however, that the instalment transactions of establishments which are not treated in the
present survey are primarily grants of producer credit, as distinguished from consumer credit.
Cash Loan Instalment Group
Estimates for the five types of institutions in the cash loan group personal loan departments of commercial banks, credit unions, industrial banking companies, personal finance companies, and what have
been termed "unregulated lenders" - are based upon compilations of
the Russell Sage Foundation,

whose classifications have been followed

with regard to both definition and coverage. The estimates for loans
insured under Title I of the National Housing Act are derived from
data contained in annual reports of the Federal Housing Administration.

j3/ See Russell Sage Foundation, Consumer Credit and Economic Stability, by Rolf Nugent (1939) Chapter XIII.




II - 3

The commercial bank figures apply to all known commercial banks
which, through their personal loan departments, extend loans to consumers on an instalment repayment basis*

The Russell Sage Foundation's

estimates of commercial bank instalment outstandings were built up
largely from data supplied by individual banks.
The credit union figures were drawn from official data, mainly
in state banking reports and Farm Credit Administration reports.
For industrial banking companies the estimates cover a group of
firms differing widely in name but using similar lending techniques.
Among them are agencies known as banks, industrial banks, Morris Plan
banks or companies, loan and investment companies, finance and thrift
companies, savings and loan companies, industrial loan companies and
discount companies

These data were developed by the Russell Sage

Foundation from official state reports as well as from individual
company reports.
The personal finance company estimates comprise all agencies
operating as licensees under statutes bearing some resemblance to the
Uniform Small Loan Law and are derived for the most part from state
reports.
The estimates of Title I loans insured by the Federal Housing
Administration cover all notes under $2000
considered consumer credit.

4/

Ibid., pp. 34-44.

J5/ Ibid., pp. 355-62.
6/

Ibid., pp. 362-74.

1/

Ibid., pp. 382-90.

which may properly be




II - 4

In order to complete the picture so far as possible, we have included also estimates for unregulated lenders; these nrefer to a miscellaneous group of lending agencies whose principal common characteristics are their very small loans andr their very high rates of charge.
Such lenders are situated for the most part in states which have no
adequate small loan laws, and the estimates for institutions in this
category are necessarily only crude approximations•

8/

Ibid. , p. 390; for further details see also pp. 390-402,




CHAPTER I I I
E s t i m a t e s
I n s t a l m e n t

of

R e t a i l
C r e d i t




Ill
E s t i m a t e s
of
ment
Credit

R e t a i l

I n s t a l -

THE dollar volume of consumer debt arising from retail instalment
transactions reached an all-time peak in 1937, as Table A-l shows,-/
when average outstandings totaled $2,641,300,000. The amount of
instalment credit granted by retailers was $3,666,800,000, and repayments on instalment obligations came to $3,392,400,000 during that
year.
During the ten-year period covered by our estimates, average
outstandings were lowest in 1933, when they stood at $1,052,500,000,
although in that same year the volume of retail instalment credit
granted increased from the 1932 figure - $1,584,100,000 as compared
with $1,363,500,000. The slow liquidation of instalment debts incurred during 1932 and prior to that year accounts substantially for
the difference in time between the low point of the credit granted
series and that of the average outstandings series. These two instalment credit items differed also with regard to the peak year.
Thus credit granted was greatest in 1929, when the volume amounted
to $4,298,400,000, whereas average outstandings, as we have already
noted, reached a peak only in 1937. This divergence reflects the
development of more liberal terms in the extension of instalment *
credit, and particularly the trend toward longer contract duration

1/

See Appendix A for tables referred to in this chapter.

Ill - 1




Ill - 2

during this ten-year period ; any increase in contract length naturally
tends to prolong the time during which a given amount of credit remains outstanding,

(See page 5.)

Retail credit granted, repayments, and average outstandings
fluctuate widely in volume. All three items show very similar percentage changes from their peak to their trough years, and vice versa*
In 1932 credit granted had decreased by 68 percent since 1929; at the
peak in 1937 it had increased 169 percent over the 1932 low. Repayments and average outstandings declined 64 percent and 57 percent respectively in 1933 as compared with 1929, whereas from 1933 to 1937
they rose 136 percent and 151 percent respectively.

The volume of

credit granted responded markedly to cyclical disturbances; in 1930
it fell off 22 percent from the 1929 level. Repayments and average
outstandings declined also, but only slightly, the former dropping
2 percent and the latter 6 percent.

Credit extensions to consumers

in 1933 rose 16 percent over the volume for 1932. Repayments, however, still showed the effects of heavy instalment debt liquidation,
for they declined 28 percent while average outstandings dropped 18
percent. In 1938 there was a very abrupt slump in the volume of
credit granted, but only a moderate decrease in total repayments and
in average instalment debt.
The broad fluctuations in the volume of these retail instalment
credit items are attributable in large measure to two key factors.
First, and most important, the consumer instalment market tends to
center about high-priced durable goods which consumers are likely to
do without during periods of depression when they are unsure of their
future income, and to acquire in eras of economic recovery when their




Ill - 3

outlook appears brighter*

Secondly, retail institutions respond to

the ups and downs of business activity by tightening credit standards
and thus curbing instalment transactions during bad times, and by relaxing those standards somewhat when conditions improve•
Chart I (Table A-2), illustrating monthly outstandings totals
for the five principal retail series, indicates that retail instalment
indebtedness during the ten-year period was highest at the end of September 1937, and lowest at the end of March 1933. Prior to 1933, retail instalment debt reached a high point at the close of October 1929.
It seems reasonable to suggest, therefore, that the cycles in retail
consumer instalment debt move closely with the general trend of business.

There are strong fluctuations in outstanding debt from peak to

low months. From October 1929 to March 1933, for example, there was
a decrease of 67 percent in the end-of-month outstandings of the chief
retail outlets. This same series, on the other hand, shows an increase
of 210 percent from March 1933 to September 1937. Again a precipitous
change in outstandings occurred from September 1937 to December*1938,
when instalment debt originating in the sales of the five principal
types of retail establishments declined 24 percent.
Of the five principal retail series, month-end outstandings arising from instalment sales of automobiles show the widest fluctuations•
From August of 1929 to Mlarch of 1933 total automobile instalment debt
fell off 80 percent. Instalment debt occasioned by department store
sales showed the least violent drop, yet declined 48 percent from December 1929 to March 1933. Decreases for the other three types of
retail establishments ranged between the decline noted for automobile
dealers and that for department stores. Increases in outstanding debt

Ill - 4

Chart I
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS8 FOR FIVE TYPES OF
RETAIL

ESTABLISHMENTS AND FOR THE FIVE TYPES COMBINED5
1926-1938

Millions of dollars
3000




1926

1927

1928

1929

1930 1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937 1938

a. End of month.
b. Data on household appliances, jewelry stores and the five
types of establishments combined available only from 1929.




Ill - 5

from the low points of 1933 to the high points of 1937 show similar
tendencies among the various outlets. Automobile instalment debt rose
as much as 475 percent, while department store fiebt in comparison increased only slightly (123 percent).

Instalment debt incurred through

household appliance stores, jewelry stores, and furniture stores, was
augmented 175 percent, 143 percent, and 44 percent respectively.

The

relatively small rise in furniture store outstandings is to be attributed to the fact that retail sales of furniture revived only slowly.
Table A-3 shows that in 1929, 55.4 percent of the retail instalment credit grants covered automobile purchases and that the percentage for 1937 was almost identical, 58.4. The volume of automobile
instalment transactions as a percent of the instalment volume estimated
for the total retail group declined considerably in 1932 and less markedly in 1938 - to 42.3 percent and 50,9 percent respectively - when corresponding percentages for department stores and "all other" stores
increased. Department stores, on the average, extended about 12 percent of all retail consumer instalment credit; furniture stores 15
percent; household appliance stores about 10 percent; "all other"
stores about 10 percent; and jewelry stores 2 percent*
From Chart II (Table A-4) it is to be observed that the average
length of time consumed in the paying out of consumer instalment debts
for retail purchases in the 5 principal types of establishments ranged
from 12 to 26 months over the ten-year period covered by our estimates.
This actual duration of indebtedness (as distinguished from contract
length, or the specified number of months of an original sales contract)
was on the average longest for the furniture store group during these
years; here the payment period ranged from 18 to 26 months. The duration




Ill - 6

of indebtedness for department store instalment paper was shortest,
generally about 12 months; this figure represents an average of periods varying from 3 months for clothing (10-week payment plan) to at
least 36 months for refrigerators.

Chart II shows further that the

duration of consumer instalment indebtedness increased markedly during this ten-year period. The most notable advance is recorded foi4
household appliance financing,for which the paying-out time increased
on the average from 12 to ?2 months. The entrance of governmental
agencies into the instalment financing field and the resultant encouragement to public utilities to sell appliances on contracts extending for 36 months and to lending institutions to advance instalment loans for property improvement on terms of similar length, may
account to a large degree for this rapid liberalization of financing
arrangements.
With regard to automobiles, our data refer not to the time consumed in liquidation of the debt but to the stipulated contract length.
In this field, too, contracts lengthened appreciably, gradually rising
from 12 to 17 months during the period covered by the data. These figures do not reflect the effects of delinquent accounts and note renewals, as do the data for the other retail groups
The differences in the payment period as between the several retail groups are brought out more sharply by a study of the percent of
total average outstandings (Table A-5) ascribed to each type of establishment as compared to the percent of credit granted by it (Table A-3)•

2/ As has already been noted, the payment period for automobile instalment transactions is synonymous with specified contract length; it does
not cover the actual time consumed in the paying out of the obligation,
as it does in the other retail series.




Ill - 7

Chart II
AVERAGE DURATION OF INSTALMENT INDEBTEDNESS* IN
FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS
1928-1938

1928

1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

a. Oata on automobile* (passenger cars only) refer to
formal length of contract and not to actual duration
of indebtedness.




Ill - 8

If two types of retail establishments extend the same amount of instalment credit, but for different periods of time, the one which
allows the longer period will have on its books a greater proportion
of the resultant instalment outstandings. The findings concerning
the furniture series serve to support this observation.

In 1929, fur-

niture stores accounted for 22 percent of total average outstandings,
but for only 16 percent of the total credit granted. This deviation
between the two series indicates that average payment periods in furniture retailing are longer than those for all the retail groups combined.

The department store and automobile dealer series show greater

proportions of credit granted to total credit granted than of outstandings to total outstandings, and reflect in turn shorter average maturities than prevail for all retail groups as a whole.
Having discussed for each retail category the proportion of instalment credit volume which each constitutes of the total, let us
now consider the percent of the total retail volume transacted on an
instalment basis by each type of retail establishment. As Chart III
(Table A-6) shews, the automobile dealer group is clearly at the head
of the list in this respect, for approximately 60 percent of all auto
sales are made on an instalment basis. Household appliance and furniture stores also do a large volume of instalment business; the proportion ranged between 40 and 50 percent of their total sales during
the ten-year period. Department stores and jewelry stores sell a much
smaller proportion of their goods on time; department store instalment
sales amounted to 12 percent of the total in 1937, and jewelry store
instalment sales to 27 percent of the total in the same year. Nevertheless instalment selling increased markedly within these two retail

Ill - 9

Chart III
INSTALMENT SALES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES OF EACH
OF FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS'
1925-1938
Percent
70 r

Dealers in new and used automobiles

60 h

\

\

\

/

/

/

Household appliance stores

50

Furniture stores
40 h

30

Jewelry stores

20

10




Department stores

JL
1925

1926

1927

JL
1928

JL

_L
1929

1930

1931

1932

1933

J_
1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

a. Data on household appliance and jewelry stores available only
from 1928. In the case of automobile dealers the percentage
figures apply to units of passenger

cars sold; for other

groups the total figures apply to volume of sales.




Ill - 10

fields during the entire period under discussion*

Both were charac-

terized by gradually rising percentages of instalment sales throughout the period covered, except for slight declines during certain
stages of the depression. An opposite trend is to be noted for the
automobile dealer group, for here the percent of csrs sold on ah instalment basis decreased.

This decline is probably to be attributed

in large part to the direct granting of cash loans (to be applied to
automobile purchases) by industrial banking companies, personal loan
departments of commercial banks, personal finance companies, and other
types of lending agencies*

Although the consumer-borrower would natu-

rally be repaying the bank in monthly instalments, the transaction
would of course be considered a cash sale by the dealer.

INDIVIDUAL RETAIL SERIES

Automobile Dealer Series
The total instalment credit granted for automobile purchases amounted
to over $2,000,000,000 in. each of three years - 1929, 1936 and 1937
(Table A-7).

Average outstandings were highest in 1937, when they to-

taled $1,523,900,000, whereas repayments by consumers against instalment debts bulked largest in 1929, amounting in that year to
$2,143,200,000*

The change in outstandings was most startling in

1938, when actual end-of-month balances decreased by #440,200,000*
The range in the volume of the various credit items between high and
low years shows intense fluctuations. Credit granted dropped 76 percent from 1929 to its lowest point in 1932. Itom 1929 to 1933 outstandings declined 70 percent and repayments 72 percent. From these low
points up to 1937, credit granted rose 271 percent, repayments 218 percent, and average outstandings 303 percent•




I l l - 11

The monthly figures for the automobile group show wide seasonal
movements (Chart IV-A, Table A-8).

The bulk of automobile instalment

credit granted centered about the months of May and June, whereas outstandings reached a later seasonal peak during the fall months. After
the introduction of new car models at the end of each year (beginning
in 1935), both credit granted and outstandings evidenced slight seasonal
rises in December and January. The repayments curve is a smooth one,
distinguished by no seasonal movement whatever. Viewed statistically,
repayments are the equivalent of a 12-month-or-over (depending upon the
length of contract or paying-out time) moving average of credit granted.

Department Store Series
As v*;e have stated previously, department stores have become increasingly
important, over the past ten years, as instalment credit institutions.
Table A-9 indicates that instalment credit grants by department stores
reached a peak in 1937 of $441,200,000, and 18 percent increase over
1929Ts total. The trough year in instalment credit granted by such
firms was 1932, when the volume was $211,300,000, constituting a 43
percent decrease from 1929. Average outstandings were highest during
1937 ($238,800,000) and lowest in 1933 ($126,800,000)*

The decline

in outstandings from 1929 to 1933 was 37 percent. Repayments were
greatest during 1937, when they totaled $429,900,000; this item, like
credit granted, had risen 18 percent since 1929. The largest net
changes in end-of-month outstandings took place in 1932 and in 1936; in
the former year outstandings decreased $49,000,000 and in the latter
they increased by the same amount. In general, the year-to-year movements of the several credit items in the department store series are
much less marked than in the automobile series.

I l l - 12

Chart IV
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS AND
OUTSTANDINGS8

FOR FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS

AND FOR THE FIVE TYPES COMBINED
Outstandings
(millions of dollars)
2000

Credit granted and repayments
(millions of dollars)
A.

DEALERS IN NEW AND USED AUTOMOBILES
1926 - 1938

300

B.

DEPARTMENT STORES
1926 - 1938

A

?^\ A

/v

• \ Outstandings

XA

~y

60
v

250

150

--^-/
100

40

-

20
Credit granted
I

0

1

l

1

1

C.

A j U / ^ ^

W
1

\s
i

1

i

i

i

1

FURNITURE STORES
1926 - 1938

^~\

80
60
40
20




0

200

Credit granted
I
1926

1927

I
1928

I
1929

I
1930

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

1936

1937

1938

a. End of month.




I l l - 13

Chart IV (continued)
Outstandings
(millions of dollars)
300

Credit granted and repayments
(millions of dollars)
D.
60

HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES
1929 - 1938

"4 \' A\

71
50 VlT 1

^/^Outstandings
S

30
20
10

fJ

/ - A •i

rff'f.l

- 150

-j'"

100

/I / .A-....

\ J i 1 T*«.# ^^"Repayments

k

Credit granted^*'
I

1

0>

- 200

i
i

\
40

250
f*

V>....i

W

I

I

i

I

i

i

i

60
E.

A

v

l\
N 1

V

*

\

K

\

- ^

1

50

IN-S/A

\

\

J

i\
' \Outstandings

\
30

JEWELRY STORES
1929 - 1938

r

V

\

s

- v!

\

Nij 40

^v r^ ^
•

K

v i

30

-i

20

20

Credit granted—J

10 \-

l\

0

i\

A

. 1

I

>^ Repayments
—Tp-W'!

i

I

I

1

3000
F.

500

"A
//v

400 V / \

•*N*

FIVE TYPES COMBINED
1 9 2 9 - 1938

/'" \ \
\

^Outstandings

300

/ .••v****
*T

1/

200
100 L

Credit

1
1929

\

\ ••.

granted-

'

\

l\- N.
' V
- . VN„ys~m
V » *•.

V

//
/

s

.•

|

2000

n

s"(\1 \ h
(\
l\l \
V

• ^ ~ " |/N * A
. 1
/ ...\l\L1I
/

2500

*s.\i

\

1500
*"•••/

^Repayments

1
1
1
1
1
.L
L
j _
1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

1000

-1 500




Ill * 14

The monthly estimates for department stores show significant
seasonal variations (Chart IV-B, Table A-10)•

The primary seasonal

peak in both credit granted and outstandings occurs in December, and
the trpugh usually in July or August. For credit granted a secondary
peak is to be noted in October, for outstandings in May or June* As
in the automobile series, outstandings of department stores show smaller
seasonal movements than credit granted.

It is noteworthy also that the

volume of department store outstandings reached a seasonal peak in the
same month as the volume of credit granted, whereas in the automobile
series the outstandings peak lagged two to three months behind the
seasonal peak of credit granted. This divergence reflects a heavy concentration of department store credit grants in December (when credit
granted exceeds the volume of repayments by a considerable amount and
results in a sharp increase in outstandings) and a tremendous drop in
January (when repayments exceed credit grants and cause a decrease in
outstanding debt).

Automobile instalment sales, on the other hand, are

concentrated in three or four consecutive months during the spring.
Since the credit sales in these few months rise and fall at a moderate
rate, the volume of credit granted continues to exceed repayments for
several months after the seasonal peak in sales is reached, and outstandings naturally continue to rise.

Furniture Store Series
Table A-ll indicates that furniture store instalment credit sales were
greatest in 1929, when $690,900,000 worth of instalment credit was extended to consumers. During this same year average outstandings, totaling $541,900,000, and repayments, amounting to #659,000,000, were




Ill - 15

likewise at their respective peaks. As in the automobile and department store series, the series for furniture stores shows that the
lowest point for credit granted was reached in 1932, for average outstandings in 1933, and for repayments in 1933. All these items had decreased from 1929 - by 66 percent, 46 percent, and 57 percent respectively. Unlike the two series already discussed, however, the volume of
furniture store retail sales never again came close to its 1929 peak,
and since there was no substantial change in average paying-out period
of furniture store instalment paper during this period, the volume of
outstandings as well as that of credit granted and repayments remained
approximately 30 percent below the 1929 levels. The largest change in
actual outstandings during any one year was the'decrease in 1932 amounting to $140,600,000.
Monthly figures for furniture stores reveal seasonal movements
very much like those which characterize the department store series
(Chart IV-C, Table A-12).

Here too December is the peak month for

credit granted and outstandings. Smaller seasonal peaks are registered for both items in October and in the spring months, The trough
month for the amount of credit granted is January and for outstandings
February or March.

Household Appliance Store Series
From Table A-13 it appears that the household appliance store instalment
credit series have moved in much the same way as the furniture store
series, except for outstandings.

Credit granted and repayments were

high in 1929, with volumes of #466,800,000 and #417,400,000 respectively, but average outstandings were highest in 1937, totaling




Ill - 16

$255,900,000*

Despite the fact that credit granted and repayments fell

approximately 40 percent from 1929 to 1937, average outstandings rose
6 percent. This wide divergence in the movements of outstandings as
compared with credit granted and repayments was a result of the pro*
nounced movement of appliance retailers to extend the length of instalment contracts during the period (see p. 5 ) . Credit granted fell 68
percent from 1929 to 1932, reaching a low point of #149,200,000. Repayments and outstandings decreased until the close of 1933, during
which year the volume of the former item was $156,400,000 and of the
latter $113,900,000. These figures represent decreases from 1929 of
63 percent in repayments, and 53 percent in average outstandings. The
greatest changes in the movement of outstandings occurred in 1932, when
the volume decreased by about $63,000,000, and again in 1936, when it
rose by the same amount.
It is to be noted that credit extensions by household appliance
stores amounted to less in 1937 than in 1929 despite the fact that the
number of appliances sold on an instalment basis had increased greatly
over the years. Most of this decrease in credit granted may be attributed to two principal factors. In the first place, the average price
of appliances fell sharply in the ten-year period; and in the second
place, appliances were being distributed through many other retail outlets besides the household appliance store. Department stores, drugstores, furniture stores, hardware stores, mail order houses and many
other miscellaneous enterprises were selling appliances on a wide scale*.
The tremendous decline in household appliance retail prices over the
last ten years is well illustrated by data from Electrical Merchandising,




Ill - 17

a trade journal.

These findings show that the average retail price

for electric refrigerators sold in 1938 was 41 percent lower than for
those sold in 1929. Washing machine prices dropped 36 percent during
the same period*

Electric ranges declined 19 percent in price over the

ten years, while radio prices decreased 60 percent from 1929 through
1937*

Vacuum cleaners, increasing in price by 19 percent during 1929-38,

provided the one exception*
Chart IV-D (Table A-14) indicates that the seasonal movements in
household appliance store instalment credit items for 1929-38 bear a
strong resemblance to the trend of the automobile series after 1934.
The primary seasonal peak in credit granted usually occurred in May or
June after a heavy concentration of sales for several months. A secondary peak was registered during December. The peak in outstandings
lagged by one to three months behind that for credit granted; usually
it developed in July or August. January seems to have been the trough
month for credit granted, and February or March for outstanding debt.

Jewelry Store Series
Of the five principal types of retail establishments covered in this
study, the jewelry store group is the least significant with respect
to volume of instalment transactions*

Instalment credit extended to

consumers by jewelry stores was greatest in 1929, totaling $88,800,000
(Table A-15) , and almost as large in 1937, when it stood at $84,600,000*
Average outstandings in each of these years came to approximately
$47,000,000.

Credit granted, repayments, and average outstandings were

3/ See Electrical Merchandising, Statistical and Marketing Issue
(January 1939)*




Ill - 18

lowest in 1933, when the respective volumes were $32,300,000, $33,000,000
and $25,400,000, These figures represented decreases from 1929 of 64
percent, 61 percent, and 52 percent respectively.

The greatest net

change in end-of-month outstandings during one year was a $15,600,000
decrease in 1932,
The monthly estimates for jewelry stores show very broad seasonal
movements (Chart IV-E, Table A-16).

Extensions of instalment credit

reach a tremendous seasonal peak in December, when at least one-third
of the jewelry store's annual instalment transactions are made. This
sudden December spurt brings about a pronounced December seasonal peak
in outstandings as well*
"All Other" StoresSeries
For the "all other" stores classification, Table A-17 indicates that
the volume of instalment credit extended was at its peak in 1929, when
it amounted to $296,600,000. Repayments, totaling $276,700,000, were
highest in 1930, and average outstandings in 1938, when they reached
$195,000,000. This group of stores included many retail apparel and
accessory outlets whose sales neither declined nor rose as precipitously as did those of most concerns selling on an instalment basis.
As with the other groups in our series, credit granted was lowest
in 1932 when the volume stood at $153,500,000; both repayments, totaling $152,800,000, and outstandings, amounting to $116,500,000, were
lowest in 1933. Decreases in these items were 48 percent, 44 percent
and 33 percent respectively, as compared with 1929.




Ill ~ 19

Monthly Totals for the Five Principal Retail Instalment Credit
Establishments
Chart TV-F (Table A-2) reveals a seasonal pattern in credit granted for
the five major retail establishments combined which is quite similar to
that exhibited by the automobile dealer series, in that the heaviest
concentration of credit granted occurred during the spring months.
There was, however, a more pronounced rise in the volume of credit extended by the combined establishments during December than by automobile dealers alone* For the five outlets combined, outstandings, reaching modified seasonal peaks during the summer months and in December,
showed intra-year movements of minor amplitude.

* * *




CHAPTER 17
E s t i m a t e s
I n s t a l m e n t

of

C a s h
C r e d i t

L o a n




IV

E s t i m a t e s
I n s t a l m e n t

of

Cash
Credit

Loan

DURING the ten-year period covered by our estimates, total cash loan
instalment outstandings 2/ reached their highest point in 1958, when
they averaged $1,084,500,000 (Table B-l) , and were lowest during the
two years 1933 and 1934, when they approximated $447,400,000. From
these figures it is already apparent that the trend in cash loan debt
was quite different from that of retail instalment debt, for the latter rose during 1934 but declined appreciably during 1938. As further
evidence of the marked divergence in trend between the two series, we
may note that average cash loan instalment debt as a whole showed a
gradual increase from 1929 through 1930, whereas the year 1930 witnessed a sharp drop in average retail instalment debt.
Table B-2 indicates that the volume of credit extended to consumers by the four principal cash lending agencies - commercial banks,
credit unions, industrial banking companies, and personal finance companies - was likewise at a peak during 1938, totaling $1,538,000,000. .§/
Repayments to these principal agencies reached a high in the same year

1/ The figures on average cash loan indebtedness cover commercial
banks, credit unions, industrial banking companies, personal finance
companies, and unregulated lenders.
2/ Estimates of credit granted by cash lending agencies include renewals of loans (old balances renewed).

17-1




17-2

with a volume of $1,479,200,000.5/ The low year for both credit granted
and repayments was 1933, when these two credit items totaled $584,300,000
and $633,200,000 respectively; they then began to rise, increasing approximately 162 percent and 132 percent respectively by 1938.
Chart V (Table B-3) shows the month-end pattern of outstanding
cash loan debt for the four principal types of lending institutions.
This chart reveals clearly the continual increase in cash loan outstandings for the two years 1929 and 1930. The amount of outstanding debt
then decreased gradually (7 percent in 1931, 15 percent in 1932 and 11
percent in 1933) until the end of February, 1934, when it again moved
upward.

From March 1934 to the close of 1938 cash loan debt outstand-

ing increased 133 percent, and it was still rising at the close of December, 1938, the last month to which our estimates apply.
The month-end outstandings estimates for each of the four principal lending agencies jy in Chart V show two distinct trends during
1929-38.

The first is the movement of the personal finance company and

industrial banking company curves, which is characterized by a reasonably normal cyclical decline in 1932-33 and by a fairly normal cyclical
revival in 1934-37. The second noteworthy trend in this chart is the
direction of the commercial bank and credit union curves, which move
very similarly to the personal finance company and industrial banking

3/ Estimates of repayments to cash lending agencies include theoretical collections on balances renewed (see Appendix D, p. 18, footnote 1).
4/ Month-end outstandings estimates for the several types of institutions may be found in the following tables: commercial banks, Table
B-6; credit unions, Table B-8; industrial banking companies, Table B-10;
and personal finance companies, Table B-12.




IV - 3

Chart V
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS8
FOR FOUR TYPES OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS
AND FOR THE FOUR TYPES COMBINED
1929-1938
Millions of dollars
1000

^--H

y

800

600

y ^ r o u r types combined

400

Personal finance companies/••'*

•
200

/
/

Industrial banking companies

/
*

...•

/
/
/

100

/

80

x

/

60

/
/

/

^Commercial banks

/
/

40

l

l
1929

1
1930

1
1931

1
1932

y

1934

/

/

/Credit unions

1
1933

x

1

/

/

, '

20

'

J
1

1
1935

1
1936

1
1937

1938

a. End of month.




IV - 4

company curves in 1932-33, but which show a tremendous secular growth
in the period 1934-38. The volume of personal finance company outstandings rose steadily from 1929 through the close of 1932, then declined
21 percent to a low point at the end of October 1933. From this date
to the close of 1937, the loan balances of these companies increased 54
percent.

Industrial banking company outstandings fluctuated more mark-

edly, dropping 48 percent from the end of the expansion period 1929-30
to February 1934, and then increasing 99 percent to a peak at the close
of 1938. Consumer loan balances of commercial banks and credit unions
showed typical decreases of 36 percent and 21 percent respectively during 1931-33. During 1934-38, however, consumer indebtedness to commercial banks multiplied more than eight times, and to credit unions more
than four times.
Table B-4 indicates that during 1929-38 personal finance companies
held a decreasing proportion of the total average consumer loan balances
of all types of lending institutions, and that in this period the average outstandings for industrial banking companies declined as well; the
share of the former dropped from 44 to 32 percent in the ten-year period, and of the latter from almost 40 percent of the total to 20 percent.

These gradual decreases reflect the rapid growth of commercial

banks and credit unions within the cash loan field. Whereas only 6
percent of the total cash loan average indebtedness was attributable to
each of these two types of institutions in 1929, by 1938 commercial
banks were responsible for 21 percent and credit unions for 10 percent
of the total. Unregulated lenders likewise increased their part in the
business, from 5.5 percent of total average outstandings in 1929 to 8.2
percent in 1938. The fact that these three agencies augmented their




IV ~ 5

respective proportions of the total average cash loan debt does not,
however, signify that the volume of loan balances of personal finance
companies and industrial banking companies fell off during the period
under discussion.

On the contrary, the total average loan balances of

the entire cash loan group increased over 100 percent during the ten
years, and within that group the outstandings of personal finance and
industrial banking companies mounted«as well.—'
Quantitatively, the importance of ISA. Title I loans, first issued
in 1934, was greatest during 1936 when average outstandings on IHA loans
amounted to 23 percent of the total average loan outstandings for all
cash lending institutions combined.

By 1938, however, average IHA Title

I outstandings had dropped to only 9 percent of the total.
Commercial Bank Series
As Table B-5 shows, the volume of credit extended

to consumers through

personal loan departments of commercial banks was greatest in 1938, when
it totaled #374,900,000. Repayments,!/ amounting to #341,900,000, and
average outstandings, totaling #228,500,000, likewise were highest in
that year. Volume of repayments had touched the low point in 1929 and
volume of loans in 1933, whereas average outstandings had dropped to the
trough (#30,000,000) in both 1929 and 1933. The year 1937 witnessed the
greatest net change in outstandings - an increase of #84,500,000.

5/ See Table B-l.
6/

Includes renewals of old balances.

7j

Includes collections on old balances renewed*




IV - 6

The rise in volume of cash loans extended to consumers by commercial banks was conditioned to a large extent by the rapid growth in the
number of personal loan departments during 1933-38. This expansion is
vividly illustrated by data based upon a sample of 1,095 banks reporting personal loan departments in 1938 to the National Bureau of Economic
Research.§/

According to these reports, 80 percent of the commercial

banks covered established their personal loan departments after 1932.
The monthly estimates for commercial banks (Chart 71-A, Table B-6)
do not reveal the distinct seasonal patterns which are characteristic
of the retail series. Here the outstandings curve is very smooth, almost a straight line.

In the volume of loans made there are to be noted,

however, a December seasonal peak, and an additional secondary peak in
June.

The repayments curve moves in very much the same direction as

the "credit granted1' curve because collections on old balances renewed
have been included in the total repayments figures.

Credit Union Series
Quantitatively, credit unions are the least important of the four principal types of lending institutions.

Total average cash loan balances

of credit unions were highest in 1938, when they amounted to $102,900,000.
Loans made (including old balances renewed) and repayments (including
collections on old balances renewed) were at a peak in 1938 as well,
totaling in that year $179,400,000 and $159,200,000 respectively.

8/ National Bureau of Economic Research (Financial Research Program) ,
Commercial Banks as Agencies of Consumer Instalment Credit, by John M.
Chapman and Associates (ms. 1939), Chapter I, Table 1, p. 6.




OT - 7

Chart VI
MONTHLY

TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE,

REPAYMENTS AND OUTSTANDINGS8 FOR FOUR
TYPES OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS
1929-1938
Loans made and repayments
(millions of dollars)

Outstandings
(millions of dollars)

300
A.

COMMERCIAL BANKS

40

20
Loans made
# .%.— •„•«
^7^....^.'^^^*•^
Repayments
T " "*
L

0

150

B.

CREDIT UNIONS
100

Outstandings
1

1929

1

1930

I

I

^~
I

I

I

C.

PERSONAL FINANCE COMPANIES

0.

INDUSTRIAL BANKING COMPANIES

1931

1932

1933

1934

1935

50

~
i

1936

i

1937
a.

End of

0

1938
month.




IV - 8

All three of these credit items were at a low point in the same
year - 1933 - when loans made came to $32f500,000, repayments to
$32,100,000, and average outstandings to $27,100,000. The greatest
change in loan balances occurred in 1937, when outstandings rose by
$26,800,000. At the close of 1938 average outstandings had risen 235
percent since 1929.
Chart VI-B (Table B-8) indicates the trend of credit union monthend outstandings only; monthly data covering loans made and repayments
are not available for these institutions. As in the case of the commercial bank outstandings estimates, the monthly figures reveal no discernible seasonal pattern.

Industrial Banking Company Series
The volume of loans made jy by industrial banking companies during the
ten-year period differed from that of other types of lending institutions in that it reached a peak in 1929 at $413,200,000 (Table B-9)#
Repayments,12/ amounting to $387,200,000, were likewise at their high
point in the same year. Average consumer loan balances touched an almost identical high point in both 1930 and 1938, totaling $220,100,000
and $222,800,000 respectively. Unlike the commercial bank and credit
union series, the industrial banking company series show no evidences
of growth trend. The volume of loans made and the volume of repayments declined gradually from 1929 through 1933 when they reached low
points of $201,600,000 and $224,000,000 respectively. Average out-

9/

Includes renewals of old balances.

10/ Includes collections on old balances renewed.




IV - 9

standings dropped, by the end of 1934, to $120,500,000, and the greatest net change in this item took place during 1932, when there was a
$41,300,000 decrease.
From an examination of Chart VI-C (Table B-10) it appears that
the monthly credit granted and repayments curves for industrial banking companies have little pronounced seasonal movement*

There is a

tendency, however, for both loans made and repayments to reach seasonal
volume peaks in December, and for less a pronounced concentration of
loans made to show up during the spring months*

The seasonal trough,

in both volume of loans made and volume of repayments, occurs in January and February*

The outstandings curve shows no distinct seasonal

pattern.
Personal Finance Company Series
The volume of instalment credit extended ii/ to consumers by personal
finance companies reached a high of $615,300,000 in 1937 (Table B-ll)
and was almost as great during 1938, when it amounted to $604,400,000.
Repayments
IE/
and average outstandings were at a peak point during
1938, when the volume estimated for these two items stood at $608,200,000
and $347,600,000 respectively*

Loans made and repayments were lowest

in 1933, and average outstandings remained at a low point during the
two years 1933 and 1934 - approximately $236,000,000* A rise of
$70,000,000 during 1929 accounted for the greatest change in outstandings over the ten-year period* In general, the series for personal
11/ Includes renewals of old balances*
12/

Includes collections on old balances renewed*




IV - 10

finance companies were more stable than those for the other institutions in the cash loan group* As compared to the other lending institutions, personal finance companies suffered only a moderate decline
in their consumer loan balances during 1932*-34i and increased them at
a much slower fate during the 1935-38 period of expansion.
The personal finance company monthly series (Chart VI-D, Table
B-12) show a much more distinct seasonal pattern than do the series
for the other principal cash lending agencies. In the case of personal finance companies, loans made and repayments are characterized by
pronounced seasonal peaks in December, and by seasonal troughs in January or February. Month-end outstandings likewise come to a slight
peak in December.
One notable decline in consumer loan balances during this period
should be pointed out:
crease of 4 percent*

for June, 1936 outstandings show a sudden de-

This drop is to be attributed to a particularly

heavy volume of repayments to personal finance companies in that gionth
following the distribution of the Veterans1 Bonus.
Unregulated Lender Series
As we have mentioned before, the series covering unregulated lenders
has been used mainly to complete the instalment credit totals for all
types of cash lending agencies. Estimates for unregulated lenders are
annual and cover only outstandings and net credit change (Table B-13).
Average outstandings for institutions in this category were highest
in 1938, when they totaled $89,200,000, and lowest in 1933, when they
came to only #24,500,000. The greatest net change in outstandings
was the increase of $25,800,000 in 1938.




IV - 11

TEk Title I Loan Series
Table B-14 indicates that average outstandings on Title I YSk loans
(under $2000) reached a high point of $197,500,000 during 1936, The
greatest change in actual outstandings took place in the calendar
year 1937, when this item decreased by #105,300,000.
* * *




CHAPTER V
Estimates
and

Cash

stalment
Comb

ined

of

Retail

Loan
Credit

In-




V

E s t i m a t e s
of
Retail
Cash
Loan
I n s t a l m e n t
Credit
C o m b i n e d

and

TOTAL average consumer instalment indebtedness y

followed a direction

generally similar to that of retail instalment indebtedness, according
to Chart VII, which shows the movements of average outstandings for
the retail, cash loan, and composite groups. Erom 1929 to 1933, the
composite group index of average outstandings declined approximately
50 percent, and the retail group about 60 percent. The average outstandings of cash lending agencies decreased 15 percent during this
same period. Total instalment indebtedness for all agencies (retail
and cash loan combined) rose after 1933 to a peak point in 1937, when
it stood almost 23 percent above the 1929 volume.
As has been noted previously, average outstandings originating
in retail instalment transactions were also at a peak point in 1937,
having risen 7 percent over the 1929 volume. This moderate rise is
to be compared with the increase in total cash loan debt, which by
1937 was 98 percent higher than the 1929 figure. During 1938 the volume of average instalment debt declined moderately, as did that of
average retail instalment debt, while the volume of average cash loan
debt showed a continued rise.

1/ This estimate embraces both the six types of retail establishments and the five types of lending institutions.

V - 1

Chart VII
AVERAGE ANNUAL INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS
FOR ALL TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS
AND LENDING INSTITUTIONS COMBINED
1929 - 1 9 3 8
Percent (1929-100)
220

s\

-

1
1

4*—Cash loan outstandings index

1

1




V - 2

^

^

x

\

/

/

/

/

\ \ ^ — O u t s t a n d i n g s index for both /
^^V
types combined
^ /
s

/

1

1

/

/

O\
S

/ ^ ^ ^ ^

1

^*~"

^—Retail outstandings index

h

i
1929

i
1930

i
1931

i
1932

i
1933

i
1934

i
1935

i
1936

i
1937

1938




V - 3

Total average instalment indebtedness amounted to $3,700,000,000
at the peak point in 1937 (Table C-l).

During 1933 average instalment

indebtedness totaled $1,500,000,000 and during 1938, |3,400,000,000.
Both in 1937 and in 1938, the volume of instalment indebtedness was
larger than in 1929, when it averaged $3,000,000,000. Table C-l
shows further that average indebtedness arising from retail instalment transactions accounted for approximately 75 percent of all consumer instalment debt during the 1929-38 period.

It is evident that

average cash loan debt makes up a larger proportion of total instalment debt during depression years than during times of prosperity.
This finding reflects the sharp decrease in retail debt during recessional periods of business. It appears also that cash loan debt accounted for a substantially larger proportion of total debt in "prosperity" years after 1933 than it did in 1929; for example, it made up
27.9 percent of the total instalment debt in 1937 as compared to 17.3
percent in 1929,
A percentage distribution of total average instalment debt according to all types of agencies, both retail and cash loan, is presented in Table C-2. The relative distribution of instalment debt as
between the two major groups and the agencies within each group have
already been discussed and need not be described here in detail. It
is noteworthy, however, that debt incurred by consumers who bought
automobiles on the instalment plan from retail dealers accounted for
25 to 42 percent of the total instalment debt during 1929-38. Furniture stores were responsible for approximately 16 percent of the total
debt during t U s period, and personal finance companies for 11 percent.




V - 4

Chart VIII
MONTHLY

TOTALS OF INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS1 FOR

FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS AND FOUR
TYPES OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS COMBINED6
1929 - 1938
Millions of dollars
3500

3000 h

2500 h

2000

1500

1000
1929

1930

1931 1932

1933

1934

a.

End of month.

b.

1935

1936

1937 1938

Excluding "all other" stores and unregulated lenders.
Outstandings on FHA (Title I) insured loans made
by all types of lending institutions are likewise
excluded.




V - 5

The gradual incursions of conmencial banks and credit unions into the
instalment credit field are again evidenced by these data.
Table C-3 presents estimates of credit granted, repayments, net
credit changes and outstandings for all major agencies in both groups£1
Here it appears that the total volume of credit granted 5/ reached its
peak in 1929 at $5,300,000,000. In 1937, an almost identical amount of
instalment credit was granted, $5,100,000,000. Repayments

were at a

high point in both 1929 and 1930, when the volume stood at $4,800,000,000*
The greatest net change in outstandings was the increase of $772,500,000
in 1936, Outstandings had undergone a marked decrease earlier, however;
thus in 1932 repayments exceeded credit granted by as much as $711,200,000«
Chart VIII (Table C-4) shows the monthly movement of outstandings
for the principal agencies

covered in our estimates. Outstandings

reached a peak at the close of September 1937, after an increase of 181
percent from March 1933, the low point during, the entire ten years under
discussion. Prior to 1933, this item had been highest in October of 1929.
From the latter date to March 1933 the drop in volume of outstandings
was 59 percent.
The month-end outstandings figures in the composite series show
no marked seasonal tendencies. In general outstandings move upward in
the spring months and again in December*

2/ Excluding unregulated lenders and MIA. Title I loans made by all
types of lending institutions.
3/

Includes loan renewals (old balances renewed) of cash loan agencies.

4/

Includes collections on cash loan balances renewed.

5/ Excludes "all other" stores, unregulated lenders and EHA loans.




APPENDIX A
T a b l e s
C o n s u m e r
C r e d i t

on

R e t a i l
I n s t a l m e n t




- 1 -

TABLE A-l
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR SIX TYPES OF
RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS COMBINED,sJ 1929-38
( m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s )
Outstandings
End
of Year

"~
Average
for Year

$356.6

$2,624.8

,$2,465.3

3,850.2

- 497.5

2,127.3

2,306.4

2,471.3

2,935.3

- 464.0

1,663.3

1,862.9

1932

1,363.5

1,991.2

- 627.7

1,035.6

1,286.1

1933

1,584.1

1,436.0

148.1

1,183.7

1,052.5

1934

1,949.4

1,769.5

179.9

1,363.6

1,267.2

1935

2,672.6

2,212.5

460.1

1,823.7

1,567.1

1936

3,467.4

2,844.5

622.9

2,446.6

2,108.3

1937

3,666.8

3,392.4

274.4

2,721.0

2,641.3

1938

2,602.7

3,136.2

- 533.5

2,187.5

2,337.9

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

1929

$4,298.4

•a, 941.8

1930

3,352.7

1931

Net
Credit
Change .£/

a/ Includes dealers in new and used (passenger) automobiles,
department stores, furniture stores, household appliance stores,
jewelry stores, and "all other* stores.
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood•

- 2»
TABLE A-2
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTEti, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FIVE TXPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS COMBINED, a/ 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandMonth Granted ments Change j>7~ ings 2/

Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

#200.8
234.9
331.2
402.0
426.2
410.9
387.5
374.4
319.5
331.3
274.3
308.8

1_ 9 2 9
$280.7 1-79.9
283.4 -48.5
286.5
44.7
292.0 110.0
298.8 127.4
304.5 106.4
310.1
77.4
316.8
57.6
321.3 - 1.8
323.6
7.7
325.9 -51.6
326.2 -17.4

#2,029,9
1,981.4
2,026.1
2,136.1
2,263.5
2,369.9
2,447.3
2,504.9
2,503.1
2,510.8
2,459.2
2,441.8

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments Change jj7~ ings c/

#90.2
95.9
108.1
124.3
122.8
124.4
83.4
95.9
93.8
93.7
80.7
96.8

1 9 30
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

190.4
214.9
282.8
339,5
296.0
313.3
268.7
255.2
240.1
233.0
196.7
247.3

326.9
325.9
324.1
320.2
315.1
304.9
296.8
287.4
278.2
271.9
264.1
258.0

-136.5
-111.0
- 41.3
19.3
- 19.1
8.4
- 28.1
- 32.2
- 38.1
- 38.9
- 67.4
- 10.7

148.3
160.2
205.1
243.1
237.8
222.0
193.7
181.0
167.0
161.9
138.9
175.0

253.5
250.2
245.7
239.6
232.1
227.4
220.2
214.2
208.0
202.2
196.5
191.7

-105.2
- 90.0
- 40.6
3.5
5.7
- 5.4
- 26.5
- 33.2
- 41.0
- 40.3
- 57.6
- 16.7

#1,402.8
1,316.8
1,248.1
1,202.7
1,165.2
1,137.7
1,076.8
1,036.6
1,000.6
970.4
932.7
915.7

3^ 9 3 5
2,305,3
2,194.3
2,153.0
2,172.3
2,153.2
2,161.6
2,133.5
2,101.3
2,063.2
2,024.3
1,956.9
1,946.2

70.0
69.6
82.3
113.1
140.8
147,1
130.9
157.1
141.5
135.4
113.3
124.9

107.8
106.0
103.7
101.4
100.4
101.2
102 il
105.3
109.5
112.7
115.6
117.5

-37.8
-36.4
-21.4
11.7
40.4
45.9
28.8
51.8
32.0
22.7
- 2.3
7.4

877.9
841.5
820.1
831.8
872.2
918.1
946.9
998.7
1,030.7
1,053.4
1,051.1
1,058.5

1_ 9 3 4

1 9 51
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1_ 9 3 2
#-96.1
#186.3
181.9
-86.0
176.8
-68.7
169.7
-45.4
160.3
-37.5
151.9
-27.5
-60.9
144.3
136.1
-40.2
-36.0
129.8
-30.2
123,9
118.4
-37.7
-17.0
113.8

1,841.0
1,751.0
1,710.4
1,713.9
1,719.6
1,714.2
1,687.7
1,654.5
1,613.5
1,573.2
1,515.6
1,498.9

82.1
105.5
140.0
173.9
190.2
178.7
160.9
162.0
135.9
150.2
130.4
152.1

119.4
119.7
121.9
125.8
130.3
134,4
136.7
139.1
140.3
140.2
141.6
143.0

-37.3
-14,2
18.1
48.1
59.9
44.3
24.2
22.9
- 4.4
10,0
-11.2
9.1

1,021.2
1,007,0
1,025.1
1,073.2
1,133.1
1,177.4
1,201.6
1,224.5
1,220.1
1,230.1
1,218.9
1,228.0

a/ Includes dealers in new and used (passenger) automobiles, department stores,
furniture stores, household appliance stores and jewelry stores»
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
cj End of month,
(continued on next page)




- 3 -

TABLE A-2 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS COMBINED, y 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Jan*
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments Change 2/
ings 2l

Credit Repay- Net Credit Outstandings £/'
Granted ments ( 3hange 2/

1_ 9 3 5

1_ 9 3 7

$123.6 $145.9 $>—22 * 3
145.7
149.2
- 3.5
201.8
152.1
49.7
239.8
157.0
82,8
236.0
162,2
73.8
227.1
165,6
61.5
224.2
169.2
55.0
219.5
173,9
45.6
189.9
178.5
11.4
190.3
182.4
7.9
209.6
24,2
185.4
253.2
191.1
62.1

$1,205.7
1,202.2
1,251.9
1,334.7
1,408.5
1,470.0
1,525.0
1,570.6
1,582.0
1,589.9
3,614.1
1,676.2

$200.5 $246.3 $-45.8
214,9
248.7
-33.8
251.8
67.6
319,4
92.4
348.8
256.4
363.3
259.5
103.8
361.2
98.1
263.1
265.9
47.4
313.3
311,0
268,0
43.0
271,5
271,4
.1
245.5
273,4 -27.9
225.1
-49.1
274.2
273.5
-35.4
238.1
1 9 3 8

,1 9 3 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep,
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

164.1
176.2
262.9
317.7
332,7
336.7
303.3
273.8
253.4
239.9
241.7
326.1

197.8
200.2
201,8
205.4
210.5
216.6
223.4
228.4
232.1
236.1
239.1
241.3

-33.7
-24.0
61.1
112,3
122.2
120.1
79.9
45.4
21.3
3.8
2.6
84.8

<|>2,226•2
2,, 192.4
2,260.0
2,352.4
2,456.2
2,554.3
2,601.7
2,644,7
2,644.8
2,616.9
2,567.8
2,532.4

1,642.5
1,618.5
1,679.6
1,791,9
1,914.1
2,034.2
2,114.1
2,159.5
2,180.8
2,184.6
2,187.2
2,272.0

150.6
160.6
206.4
214.9
211.9
201.2
179.4
204.6
180,4
185,5
212.7
265.4

269.6
267.3
265.0
259.6
253.0
245.2
236.8
230,2
225.1
220.4
217.1
216.6

-119.0
-106.7
- 58.6
- 44.7
- 41.1
- 44.0
- 57.4
- 25.6
- 44.7
- 34.9
- 4.4
48.8

2,413.4
2,306.7
2,248.1
2,203.4
2,162.3
2,118.3
2,060.9
2,035.3
1,990.6
1,955.7
1,951,3
2,000.1

a/ Includes dealers in new and used (passenger) automobiles, department stores,
furniture stores, household appliance stores and jewelry stores*
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understoodf
0/




End of month.




- 4 -

TABLE A-3
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED
BY SIX TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS, 1929-38

Year

Dealers in
Depart- Furai- Household
New and Used
ment
ture
Appliance
Automobiles a/ Stores Stores
Stores

?

'A11
Jewelry Other"
Stores
Stores

Total

1929

55.4

8.7

16,1

10.8

2.1

6.9

100.0

1930

51.2

10.6

17.0

11.0

2.0

8.2

100.0

1931

47.2

12.3

17.3

11.1

2.5

9.6

100.0

1932

42.3

15.5

17.5

10.9

2.5

11.3

100.0

1933

47.3

14.1

16.9

9.7

2.0

10.0

100.0

1934

49.1

13.7

15.6

9.6

2.4

9.6

100.0

1935

56.3

11.9

13.3

8.5

2.1

7.9

100.0

1936

58.5

11.5

13.0

8.0

2.1

6.9

100.0

1937

58.4

12.1

12.6

7.7

2.3

6.9

100.0

1938

50.9

14.4

15.1

7.9

2.9

8.8

100.0

a/ Passenger cars only.




- 5 -

TABLE A-4
AVERAGE DURATION OF INSTALMENT INDEBTEDNESS IN FIVE
TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS, 1928-38
(in months)

Dealers in
New and Used
Department
Year Automobiles .£/
Stores

Furniture
Stores

Household
Appliance
Stores

Jewelry
Stores

1928

12.4

12.0

18.0

12.0

12.0

1929

12.5

12.2

19.4

13.0

13.4

1930

12.6

12.6

21.2

14.5

15.0

1931

13.0

12.6

23.2

16.2

16.1

1932

13.1

14.0

25.5

17.0

18.4

1933

13.3

13.9

24.6

15.8

17.2

1934

13.8

12.9

21.6

16.2

13.6

1935

14.3

12.4

19.8

18.9

13.0

1936

16.2

12.1

19.5

21.2

12.7

1937

17.4

12.4

20.4

22.6

13.0

1938

16.8

13.2

20.3

22.4

14.6

a./ Data on automobiles (passenger cars only) refer to formal
length of contract and not to actual duration of indebtedness.




- 6 -

TABLE A-5
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL AT7ERAGE INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS
FOR SIX TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS, 1929-38

Year

Dealers in
Depart- Furni- Household
New and Used
ment
ture
Appliance
Automobiles Jy Stores Stores
Stores

"All
Jewelry Other"
Stores
Stores

Total

1929

51.1

8.1

22.0

9.8

2.0

7.0

100.0

1930

48.2

8.0

23.4

10.3

1.9

8.2

100.0

1931

41.5

9.9

25.9

10.8

2.3

9,6

100.0

1932

35.4

11.0

28.6

11.1

2.7

11.2

100.0

1933

36.0

12.0

27,7

10.8

2.4

11.1

100.0

1934

42.3

12,1

23.4

9.9

2.2

10.1

100.0

1935

49.4

10.9

19.7

9.5

2.0

8.5

100.0

1936

55.7

9.5

16.5

9.3

1.8

7.2

100.0

1937

57.7

9.0

14.9

9.7

1.8

6.9

100.0

1938

54.2

9.4

16,0

1Q.1

2.0

8.3

100.0

a/

Passenger cars only*




- 7 -

TABLE A-6
INSTALMENT SALES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
SALES OF EACH OF FIVE TYPES OF RETAIL
ESTABLISHMENTS, 1925-38 */

Year

Dealers
in
& Used
Automobiles

flew
DepartFurniment
ture
Stores
Stores

Jewelry
Stores

Household
Appliance
Stores

192.5

66$

7.1$

37.4$

—

—

1926

65

7.7

38,3

—

—

1927

61

7.9

38.2

—

—

1928

60

8.1

38.3

16.6%

49\1#

1929

64

8.1

38.3

16.6

49.1

1930

64

8.4

39.4

17.3

49.4

1931

61

8.0

40.1

20.1

50.0

1932

49

7.4

40.4

18,1

49.1

1933

57

8.0

41.5

18.7

49.1

1934

57

8.6

42.6

22.6

50.5

1935

61

9.7

42.1

24.3

52.1

1936

59

11.0

42.2

25.9

51.7

1937

60

11.6

41.4

27.4

49.1

1938

57

10.6

41.9

27.2

47.6

a/ Data on jewelry and household appliance stores
available only from 1928,
b/ In the case of automobile dealers the percentage
figures apply to units of passenger cars sold; for
all other groups the total figures apply to volume
of sales.




- 8 -

TABLE A-7
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEALERS IN NEW
AND USED AUTOMOBILES^/ 1926-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings
Net
Credit .
Change zJ

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

End
of Year

1926

|1,793.9

#1,739.5

% 54.4

1927

1,450.4

1,665.8

-215.4

721.1

861.6

1928

1,915.2

1,557.9

357.3

1,078.4

907.2

1929

2,382.3

2,143.2

239.1

1,317.5

1,260.0

1930

1,715.6

2,104.8

-389.2

928.3

1,110.9

1931

1,166.7

1,458.3

-291.6

636.7

773.7

1932

577.2

892.2

-315.0

321.7

454.7

1933

748.6

611.6

137.0

458.7

378.9

1934

956.9

840.2

116.7

575.4

536.5

1935

1,503.4

1,143.0

360.4

935.8

773.4

1936

2,027.4

1,613.6

413.8

1,349.6

1,174.0

1937

2,142.7

1,943.5

199.2

1,548.8

1,523.9

1938

1,325.2

1,765.4

-440.2

1,108.6

1,268.5

%

936.5

Average
for Year
%

960.2

a/ Passenger cars only.
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood.

- 9 TABLE A-8
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEALERS IN NEW AND USED AUTOMOBILES ,£/
1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Credit
Granted

Net
^ P a y - Credit
Outstandments Change £ /
ings 5 /

Credit
Granted

1_ 9 2 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

•$107.6
89.7
154.3
215.3
220.7
177.6
200.9
170.4
148.9
132.7
89.7
86.1

W138.7
139.9
139. S
141.0
142.4
144.8
145.1
146.7
148.5
151.8
151.2
149.5

i-31.1
-50.2
14.4
74.3
78.3
32.8
55.8
23.7
.4
-19.1
-61.5
-63.4

1_ 9 2 9
,£51.0
800.8
815.2
889.5
967.8
1,000.6
1,056.4
1,080.1
1,080.5
1,061.4
999.9
936.5

$110.7
132.5
205.9
251.7
270.3
264.6
265.9
240.9
185.7
190.7
142.2
121.2

1_ 9 2 7
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

97.2
98.6
143.6
182.8
175.5
147.9
137.8
136.3
104.4
103.0
74.0
49.3

149.5
148.6
149.4
148.5
145.7
142.0
139.5
134.3
131.4
127.7
125.3
123.9

-52.3
-50.0
-5.8
34.3
29.8
5.9
-1.7
2.0
-27.0
-24.7
-51.3
-74.6

84.2
102.7
151.2
180.9
211.6
206.1
195.1
194.7
163.9
168.1
138.1
118.6

120.9
119.7
119.9
12C.3
120.0
122.7
127.2
131.8
136.4
141.1
146.4
151.5

-36.7
-17.0
31.3
60.6
91.6
83.4
67.&
62.9
27.5
27.0
-8.3
-32.9

1157.1
159.3
161.8
166.4
172.4
177.3
182.2
188.2
192.1
194.0
196.0
196.4

1-46.4
-26.8
44.1
85.3
97.9
87.3
83.7
52.7
-6.4
-3.3
-53.8
-75.2

$1,032.0
1,005.2
1,049.3
1,134.6
1,232.5
1,319.8
1,403.5
1,456.2
1,449.8
1,446.5
1,392.7
1,317.5

1_ 9 3 0
884.2
834.2
828.4
862.7
892.5
898.4
896.7
898.7
871.7
847.0
795.7
721.1

103.5
120.0
175.0
207.3
164.2
193. 6
170.2
146.8
130.7
118.7
88.8
96.8

1_ 9 2 8
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Lee.

Net
OutstandRepay- Credit
ments Change V
i n g s 0/

196.8
196.2
195.3
192.8
189.3
180.8
175.2
167.6
160.0
155.5
149.8
145.5

-93.3
-76.2
-20.3
14.5
-25.1
12.8
-5.0
-20.8
-29.3
-36.8
-61.0
-48.7

1,224.2
1,148.0
1,127.7
1,142.2
1,117.1
1,129.9
1,124.9
1,104.1
1,074.8
1,038.0
977.0
928.3

1_ 9 5 1
684.4
667.4
698.7
759.3
850.9
934.3
1,002.2
1,065.1
1,092.6
1,119.6
1,111.3
1,078.4

76.4
81.9
112.9
138.2
133.5
127.6
117.3
97.6
83.6
75.0
60.2
62.5

143.5
141.3
138.1
132.9
127.1
124.3
118.8
114.2
110.0
106.0
102.3
99.8

-67.1
-59.4
-25.2
5.3
6.4
3.3
-1.5
-16,6
-26.4
-31.0
-42.1
-37.3

861.2
801.8
776.6
781.9
788.3
791.6
790.1
773.5
747.1
716.1
674.0
636.7

a/ Passenger cars only.
]y Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be
understood.
c/ End of month.
(continued on next page)



- 10 TABLE A-8 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,. NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEALERS' IN NEW AND USED AUTOMOBILES ,S/
1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Net
Credit
Repay- Credit
Granted ments Change V

Outstandings SJ

Credit
Granted

19 3 2
Jan.
Feb*
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$48.1
48.3
55.2
60.9
63.1
68.6
48.2
48.0
• 41.6
36.3
29.8
29.1

096.9
94.7
92.1
87.5
81.2
75.7
71.0
65.5
61.6
58.2
55.1
52.7

$-48.8
-46.4
-36.9
-26.6
-18.1
-7.1
-22.8
-17.5
-20.0
-21.9
-25.3
-23.6

39.4
37.0
42.5
56.9
72.8
81.8
81.3
88.6
78.3
72.2
55.6
42.2

50.0
49,1
48.2
46.9
46.3
46.8
47.5
49.9
52.9
cD. 0

58.3
60.2

-10.6
-12.1
-5.7
10.0
26.5
35.0
33.8
38.7
25.4
16.7
-2.7
-18.0

$587.9
541.5
504.6
478.0
459.9
452.8
430.0
412.5
392.5
370.6
345.3
321.7

§76.
90.0
129.0
153.5
147 ,1
144 ,6
155 .9
138.8
107.5
103.3
123.5
134.1

39.8
56.8
77.3
97.S
110.5
109.5
106.0
97.9
69.6
76.8
62.7
52.1

61.0
61.0
62.5
65.0
68.2
71.0
73.2
75.1
75.9
75.3
75.7
76.3

-21.2
-4.2
14.8
32. S
42.3
38.5
32.8
22.8
-6.3
1.5
-13.0
-24.2

$77.1
80.2
82.7
86.8
91.3
94.1
97.0
100.8
104.0
106.8
108.8
113.4

-$1.0
9.8
46.3
66.7
55.8
50.5
58.,9
38..0
3..5
-3..5
14.,7
20.,7

,4
584 .2
630 .5
697, 2
753.0
803,
862.
900,
903,
900.
915.
935.8

19 3 6
311.1
299.0
293.3
303.3
329.8
364.8
398.6
437.3
462.7
479.4
476.7
458.7

110.6
108.5
178.1
213.2
217.8
229.8
208.0
173.8
151.5
126.9
134.5
174.7

1_ 9 3 4
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Outstandings sJ

19 3 5

1_ 9 3 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Net
Repay- Credit
ments Change V

118.7
120.9
122.0
125.0
128.7
133.1
138.4
141.5
143.5
146.2
147.5
148.1
1^9

437.5
433.3
448.1
481.0
523.3
561.8
594.6
617.4
611.1
612.6
599.6
575.4

133
130
214,
226
236
240
216.8
202.6
162.8
136.2
128.7
113.3

150
152
154
157
159
161
163.8
165.3
167
169
170
170

-8.1
-12.4
56.1
88.2
89.1
96.7
69.6
32.3
8.0
-19.3
-13.0
26.6

927.7
915.3
971.4
1,059.6
1,148.7
1,245.4
1,315.0
1,347.3
1,355.3
1,336.0
1,323.0
1,349.6

JLZ '
-16.8
-22.0
60
68
77
79
53.0
37.3
-5 ,1
-33 ,2
-41.8
-57.3

1,332.8
1,310.8
1,370.9
1,439.4
1,516
1,595
1,648
1,686
1,681
1,647
1,606
1,548.8

a/ Passenger cars only.
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be
understood.
c/ End of month.
(concluded on next page)







TABLE A-8 (concluded)
MONIHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED,
REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEALERS IN NEW AND USED
AUTOMOBILES, SJ 1926-38
(millions of dollars}

Month

Credit
Granted

Repayments

Net
Credit
Change 5/

Outstandings SJ

19 3 8
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune

ty 0«/• S

July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

91.8
126.7
122.9
124.6
121.6
108.6
113.9
88.2
89.1
118.6
129.3

# 168.4
166.6
165.1
161.0
155.7
149.9
143.5
137.7
133.4
129.5
127.3
127.3

$ -78.5
-74.8
-38.4
-38.1
-31.1
-28.3
-34.9
-23.8
-45.2
-40.4
-8.7
2.0

$ 1,470.3
1,395.5
1,357.1
1,319.0
1,287.9
1,259.6
1,224.7
1,200.9
1,155.7
1,115.3
1,106.6
1,108.6

a/ Passenger cars only.
\>J Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be understood.
oj

End of month.




- 12 -

TABLE A-9
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED,
REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEPARTMENT STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

Net
Credit
.
Change SJ

End
Average
of Year for Year

1926

$338.3

$317.6

$20.7

|198.2

$175.6

1927

349.7

343.4

6.3

204.5

187.0

1928

359.4

352.4

7.0

211,5

192,1

1929

373.0

364.7

8.3

219.8

199.9

1930

355.4

365.5

-10.1

209.7

183.9

1931

304.1

335.5

-31.4

178.3

185.4

1932

211.3

260.1

-48.8

129.5

142.0

1933

223.2

199.4

23.8

153.3

126.8

1934

267.9

248.7

19.2

172.5

153.7

1935

318.1

293.7

24.4

196.9

171.1

1936

400,3

351.8

48.5

245.4

201.5

1937

441.2

429.9

11.3

256.7

238.8

1938

375.3

398.7

-23.4

233.3

219.4

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be understood•

- 13 -

TABLE A-10
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEFARTCviENT STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandMonth. Granted ments Change a/
ings ^/

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments
ings b/
Change IT

19 2 6
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oot.
Nov,
Dec,

#22.0 #25.2
23.4 25.5
26.8 25.7
27.8 25.8
28.2 26.0
22.8 26.3
19,4 26.5
27,5 26.7
31.2 27.0
35.7 27.4
33,5 27.6
40.0 27.9

^>-3.2
-2.1
1.1
2.0
2.2
-3.5
-7.1
.8
4.2
8.3
5.9
12,1

19 2 8
$174.3
172.2
173.3
175.3
177.5
174.0
166.9
167.7
171.9
180.2
186.1
198.2

#23.4 $29.2
24.8 29.2
27.9 29.1
29.8 29.2
28,7 29.2
24.2 29.3
20.8 29.3
28.3 29,5
35.4 29.4
36.6 29.6
35.2 29.7
44.3 29.7

Apr.

MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
NOT.

Dec,

23.0
25.0
27.0
30.5
27.6
23.4
19.5
29.4
31.7
36.1
34.9
41.6

28.2
28.3
28.4
28.4
28.6
28.6
28.7
28.6
28.8
28.9
28.9
29.0

-5.2
-3.3
-1.4
2.1
-1.0
-5.2
-9.2
.8
2.9
7.2
6.0
12.6

$198.7
194.3
193.1
193.7
193.2
188.1
179.6
178.4
184.4
191.4
196.9
211.5

19 2 9

19 2 7
Jan.
Feb.
Mar,

$-5.8
-4.4
-1.2
.6
- .5
-5.1
-8.5
-1.2
6.0
7.0
5.5
14.6

193.0
189.7
188.3
190.4
189.4
184.2
175.0
175.8
178.7
185.9
191.9
204.5

23,6
26,6
31.1
30.6
29,5
24.6
20.3
30.0
38.1
38.4
34.4
45.8

30.0
30.0
30.0
30.3
30.4
30.4
30.4
30.4
30.5
30.7
30,8
30.8

-6.4
-3,4
1.1
.3
- .9
-5.8
-10.1
- .4
7.6
7.7
3.6
15.0

205.1
201.7
202.8
203.1
202.2
196.4
186,3
185.9
193,5
201,2
204.8
219.8

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
b/




End of month.
(continued on next page)

- 14 -

TABLE A-10 (cont inued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEPARTMENT STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Jan,
Feb,
Liar,
Apr,

May
June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov*
Dec.

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments Change a/
ings b/

Creddt Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments Change a/
ings b/

19 5 0

19 3 2

$26.4 $30.9
28.0
31.1
27.5
31.1
32.7
30.8
28.3
31.0
21.1
30.9
17.7
30.6
26.5
30.3
35.2
30.0
35.7
29.8
34.3
29.5
42.0
29.5

5-4.5
-3.1
-3.6
1.9
-2.7
-9.8
-12.9
-3.8
5.2
5.9
4.8
12.5

^i215.3
212,2
208.6
210.5
207.8
198.0
185.1
181.3
186.5
192.4
197.2
209.7

#14.9 #25,5
24.8
17.4
19.2
24.1
23.3
19.3
18.1
22.4
15.2
21.8
10.6
21.3
20.9
15.2
19.4 20.2
21.2
19,4
18.5
18.7
22.1
17.9

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,

22.3
24.5
28.7
28.0
24.9
19.5
15.7
22.4
28.6
29.9
25.9
33.7

29.1
28.9
28.6
28.7
28.4
28.1
28.1
28.0
27.6
27.2
26.7
26.1

-6.8
-4.4
.1
- .7
-3.5
-8.6
-12.4
-5,6
1.0
2.7
- .8
7.6

1.8
.2
4.2

#167.7
160.3
155.4
151.4
147.1
140.5
129.8
124.1
123.3
125.1
125.3
129.5

19 5 5

19 3 1
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

->10.6
- 7.4
- 4.9
- 4.0
- 4.3
- 6.6
-10.7
- 5.7
- .8

202.9
198.5
198.6
197.9
194.4
185,8
173.4
167.8
168.8
171.5
170.7
178,3

11.3
11.2
12.7
17.9
19.3
16.8
13.9
22.6
24.3
23.2
22.1
27.9

16.8
16.6
16.1
15.7
15.7
15.8
16.1
16.4
17.0
17.5
17,7
18.0

-5.5
-5,4
-3.4
2.2
3.6
1.0
-2.2
6.2
7.3
5.7
4.4
9.9

124,0
118.6
115.2
117.4
121.0
122.0
119.8
126,0
133.5
139.0
143.4
153,3

a./ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood,
b/ End of month*




(concluded on next page)

- 15 TABLE A-0.0 (concluded)
MONTEILY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, HEPAQIENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE MD OUTSTANDINGS FOR DEPARTMENT STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Credit Repay- Net Credit
Granted ments Change a/""

Outstandings £/

Credit Repay Net Credit OutstandGranted ments Change ET~ ings b/

19 3 4
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov,
Dec.

$15.7
17.9
22.6
22.3
22.2
17.9
14.3
22.5
26,6
27.3
25.1
33.5

ii>18,6
19.0
19.5
20.3
20.6
21.0
21.1
21.2
21.3
21.6
22.1
22.4

$-2.9
-1.1
3.1
2,0
1.6
-3.1
-6.8
1.3
5.3
5.7
3,0
11.1

19 3 7
$150.4
149.3
152.4
154.4
156.0
152.9
146,1
147.4
152.7
158,4
161.4
172.5

£25.9 ^33,8
31.4 34.2
38.5 34.8
38.6 35.4
37.3 35.8
32.4 36.2
25.9 36.4
36.1 36.5
41.9 36.6
45.6 36.8
40.4 36.8
47.2 36.6

1935
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr,

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov. •
Dec.

18,4
20.9
24.8
27.3
24.8
21,9
17.5
25.9
32.7
32.4
31.0
40.5

23.0
23.1
23.4
23.7
24.1
24.3
24.6
24.8
25.0
25.5
25.9
26.3

-4.6
-2.2
1.4
3,6
.7
-2.4
-7.1
1.1
7.7
6.9
5.1
14.2

>-7.9
-2.8
3.7
3,2
1.5
-3.8
-10.5
- .4
5.3
8.8
3.6
10.6

$237.5
234.7
238.4
241.6
243.1
239.3
228.8
228.4
233,7
242.5
246.1
256.7

19 3 8
167.9
165.7
167.1
170.7
171.4
169.0
161.9
163.0
170.7
177.6
182.7
196.9

23.5
26.7
29.8
32.5
26.7
24.8
21.2
31.1
35.2
37.4
38.1
48.3

36.1
35.9
35.5
34.8
34.2
33.3
32,7
32.3
31.8
31.3
30.5
30.3

-12.6
- 9.2
- 5.7
- 2.3
- 7.5
- 8.5
-11.5
- 1.2
3.4
6.1
7.6
18.0

244.1
234.9
229,2
226.9
219.4
210.9
199.4
198.2
201.6
207.7
215.3
233.3

19 3 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,

20.4
24.3
29.0
32,8
31.8
28.5
24.2
33.9
38.7
44,3
41.4
51.0

26.9
27,1
27.4
27.7
28.2
28.7
29.3
29.9
30.6
31.1
32.0
32.9

-6.5
-2.8
1.6
5.1
3.6
- .2
-5.1
4.0
8.1
13.2
9.4
18,1

190.4
187.6
189.2
194,3
197.9
197.7
192.6
196.6
204.7
217,9
227.3
245.4

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
b/

End of month.







- 16

TABLE A-ll
ANNUAL TGTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR
FURNITURE STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings
Net
Credit
Change SJ

End
of Year

Average
for Year

if 619.9

$ 29.4

$535.8

#493.6

658.5

645.8

12.7

548.5

514.8

1928

657.8

654.8

3.0

551.5

520.8

1929

690.9

659.0

31.9

583.4

541.9

1930

571.9

616.4

-44.5

538.9

539.8

1931

428.0

512.9

-84.9

454.0

481.9

1932

238.4

379.0

-140,6

313.4

367.2

1933

268.3

282.8

-14.5

298.9

291.0

1934

304.9

290.2

14.7

313.6

296.6

1935

355.9

335.5

20.4

334.0

309.2

1936

449.6

393.8

55.8

389.8

347.5

1937

463.3

444.2

19.1

408.9

395.0

1938

393.7

420.0

-26.3

382.6

373.1

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

1926

#649.3

1927

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood*

- 17 ~

TABLE A-12
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FURNITURE STORES, 1926-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments
Change "j[f ings j>/

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments
Change "Ef ings Jgy

19 2 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$33.6
41.8
49.3
56.6
59.7
53.3
45.3
56.5
53.1
63.1
58.9
78.1

$51.7
51.4
50.8
51.0
50.9
51.2
51.2
51.6
52.1
52.3
52.7
53.0

$-18.1
- 9.6
- 1.5
5.6
8.8
2.1
- 5.9
4.9
1.0
10.8
6.2
25.1

19 2 8
$488.3
478.7
477.2
482.8
491.6
493.7
487.8
492.7
493.7
504.5
510.7
535.8

$34.3
42.5
50.0
57.5
60.6
54.0
45.9
57.2
53.7
63.8
59.4
78.9

$54.8
54.6
54.5
54.5
54.5
54.5
54.3
54.4
54.6
54.6
54.7
54.8

1_ 9 2 7
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

34.6
42.9
50.4
57.7
60.7
54.1
46.0
57.1
53.6
63.7
59.2
78.5

53.5
53.5
53.4
53.6
53.6
53.7
53.6
53.8
54.1
54.2
54.4
54.4

-18.9
-10.6
- 3.0
4.1
7.1
A
- 7.6
3.3
- .5
9.5
,4.8
24.1

$-20.5
-12.1
- 4.5
3.0
6.1
- .5
- 8.4
2.8
- .9
9.2
4.7
24.1

$528.0
515.9
511.4
514.4
520.5
520.0
511.6
514.4
513.5
522.7
527.4
551.5

1_ 9 2 9
516.9
506.3
503.3
507.4
514.5
514.9
507.3
510.6
510.1
519.6
524.4
548.5

38.2
46.7
54.2
61.5
64.4
57.1
48.1
59.5
55.3
65.4
60.2
80.3

55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
55.0
54.8
54.9
55.0
54.9
54.8
54.6

-16.8
- 8.3
- .8
6.5
9.4
2.1
- 6.7
4.6
.3
10.5
5.4
25.7

534.7
526.4
525.6
532.1
541.5
543.6
536.9
541.5
541.8
552.3
557.7
583.4

a/ Minus sign i n d i c a t e s a decrease in net c r e d i t ; otherwise an increase i s t o
be understood.
Jb/




End of month.
(continued on next page)

- 18 -

TABLE A - 1 2 ( c o n t i n u e d )
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FURNITURE STORES, 1 9 2 6 - 3 8
(millions of dollars)

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandMonth Granted ments
Change 1/ ings jy

Credit Repay- Net Credit, Out standGranted ments
Change Ef
ingsly

19 3 0
Jan.
F erb .
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$34.9
41.4
47.2
52.6
54.3
47.6
39.5
48.3
44.3
52.0
47.0
62.8

#54.7
54.3
53.7
53.2
52.5
51.9
50.9
50.4
49.9
49.2
48.3
47.4

$-19.8
-12.9
- 6.5
.6
1.8
- 4.3
-11.4
- 2.1
- 5.6
2.8
- 1.3
15.4

19 3 2
$563*6
550.7
544.2
543.6
545.4
541.1
529.7
527.6
522.0
524.8
523.5
538.9

$16.0
18.5
20.5
24.2
22.2
19.0
10.8
19.1
19.8
23.1
19.2
26.0

$37.2
36.4
35.3
34.4
33.3
32.2
30.9
29.8
28.8
27.9
26.9
25.9

1_ 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

28.0
32.7
36.7
40.3
41.2
35.8
29.4
35.7
32.3
37.6
33.4
44.9

46.5
46.0
45.4
44.8
44.1
43.3
42.4
41.8
41.0
40.2
39.2
38.2

-18.5
-13.3
- 8.7
- 4.5
- 2.9,
- 7.5
-13.0
- 6.1
- 8.7
- 2.6
- 5.8
6.7

<$>*•"<dX e <Z»

-17.9
-14.8
-10.2
-11.1
-13.2
-20.1
-10.7
- 9.0
- 4.8
- 7.7
.1

#432.8
414.9
400.1
389.9
378.8
365.6
345,5
334.8
325.8
321.0
313.3
313.4

1_ 9 3 3
520.4
507.1
498.4
493.9
491.0
483.5
470.5
464.4
455.7
453.1
447.3
454.0

11.8
14.0
17.9
23.1
28.9
25.3
17.2
27.3
23.7
25.7
22.1
31.3

24.8
24.4
23.9
23.5
23.3
23.4
23.1
23.2
23.4
23.4
23.3
23.1

-13.0
-10.4
- 6.0
.4
5.6
1.9
- 5.9
4.1
.3
2.3
- 1.2
8.2

300.4
290.0
284.0
283.6
289.2
291.1
285.2
289.3
289 „ 6
291.9
290.7
298.9

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
b/




End of month*
(continued on next page)

- 19 TABLE A - 1 2 ( c o n t i n u e d )
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FURNITURE STORES, 1 9 2 6 - 3 8

(millions of dollars)
Credit .Repay" Net Credit. Out standMonth Granted ments
Change jj/ ings ![t

Credit Repay- Net Credit Outstand.Granted ments
Change j / ings jy
19 3 7

19 3 4
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May

June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

#15.9
19.9
24.4
28.2
29.6
24.3
19.3
24,8
25.1
30.7
26.8
35.9

$23.4
23.3
23.4
23.6
23.9
24.2
23.9
24.2
24.5
24.8
25.3
25.7

$- 7.5
- 3.4
1.0
4.6
5.7
.1

- 4.6
.6
.6
5.9
1.5

10.2

$291.4
288.0
289.0
293.6
299.3
299.4
294.8
295.4
296.0
301,9
303.4
313.6

$24.8
32.0
37.6
46.0
48.1
43.0
36.5
41.6
39.0
40.1
33.5
41.1

$36.1
36,2
36.3
36.5
36.8
37.2
37.1
37.5
37.7
37.8
37.7
37.3

1 9 3 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May

June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

16.5
21.8
26.7
30.7
33.5
29.0
23.9
31.8
29.3
35.2
34.2
43.3

26.5
26.6
26.7
26.9
27.2
27.6
27.8
28.2
28.9
29.3
29.7
30.1

-10.0
- 4.8
.0
3.8
6.3
1.4

- 3.9
3.6
.4
5.9
4.5

13.2

$-11.3
- 4.2
1.3
9.5

11.3
5.8

-

.6
4.1
1.3
2.3

- 4.2
3.8

$378.5
374.3
375.6
385.1
396.4
402.2
401.6
405.7
407.0
409.3
405.1
408.9

1_ 9 3 8
303.6
298.8
298.8
302.6
308.9
310.3
306.4
310.0
310,4
316.3
320.8
334.0

21.4
24.5
29.6
33.3
34.6
30.2
28.0
36.4
34.6
39.4
34.3
47.4

36.9
36.7
36.4
36.0
35.5
34.9
34.2
34.0
33.9
33.8
33.8
33.9

-15.5
-12.2
- 6.8
- 2.7
- .9
- 4.7
- 6.2
2.4
.7
5.6
.5

13.5

393.4
381.2
374.4
371.7
370.8
366.1
359.9
362.3
363.0
368.6
369.1
382.6

1_ 9 3 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May

June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

22.0
29.5
32.2
38.8
43.0
39,3
34.4
39.9
37.6
43.8
38.3
50.8

30.8
31.0
31.2
31.3
31.8
32.4
32.7
33.4
34.1
34.6
35.1
35.4

- 8.8
- 1.5
1.0
7.5

11.2
6.9
1.7
6.5
3.5
9.2
3.2

15.4

325.2
323.7
324.7
332.2
343.4
350.3
352.0
358.5
362.0
371.2
374.4
389.8

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
b/




End of month.




- 20 -

TABLE A-13
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR
HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

1929

$466.8

#417.4

1930

369.2

1931

Net
Credit
Change Jy

'
End
of Year

Average
for Year

|49.4

$265.1

$241.9

412.1

-42.9

222.2

238,2

274.9

312.6

-37.7

184.5

201.3

1932

149.2

212.4

-63.2

121.3

143.2

1933

153.6

156.4

- 2.8

118.5

113.9

1934

186.4

173.7

12.7

131.2

124.7

1935

226.8

187.7

39.1

170,3

148.3

1936

278.9

211.9

67.0

237.3

196.2

1937

280.8

255.8

25.0

262.3

255.9

1938

204.2

244.0

-39.8

222.5

235.9

a/ Miuus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an
increase is to be understood*

- 21 TABLE A-14
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Net
Month

Credit
Granted

Net

Repay- Credit
Outstandments Change a/
ings

Credit
Granted

1_9 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$22.8
23.8
32.8
51.2
54.0
57.4
48.4
38.0
33.8
31.4
31.4
41.8

$>31.6
32.1
32.6
33.2
33.9
34.7
35.5
36.1
36.5
36.8
37.1
37.3

1_ 9 3 2

$—8.8
-8.3

.2
18.0
20.1
22.7
12.9

1.9
-2.7
-5.4
-5.7
4.5

$206.9
198.6
198.8
216.8
236.9
259.6
272.5
274.4
271.7
266.3
260.6
265.1

$8.7

9.4
10.4
17.2
16.4
18.7
11.9
11.1
10.4
11.1
10.8
13.1

1_ 9_.3__0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

21.4
21.6
28.1
42.1
43.5
45.8
37.9
29.3
25.2
22.7
22.0
29.6

37.6
37.4
37.2
36.8
35.9
35.1
34.0
33.1
32.4
31.6
30.9
30.1

-16.2
-15.8
-9.1

5.3
7.6
10.7

3.9
-3.8
-7.2
-8.9
-8.9
-.5

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

17.4
17.2
21.8
31.9
32.9
34.2
28.1
21.3
18.1
16.0
15.3
20.7

29.1
28.8
28.4
28.0
27.3
26.5
25.7
25.0
24.3
23.7
23.2
22.6

-11.7
-11.6
-6.6

3.9
5.6
7.7
2.4
-3.7
-6.2
-7.7
-7.9
-1.9

$21.8
21.3
20.7
20.0
19.1
18.1
17.1
16.0
15.4
14.7
14.3
13.9

§-13.1
-11.9
-10.3
-2.8
-2.7

.6
-5.2
-4.9
-5.0
-3.6
-3.5
-.8

$171.4
159.5
149.2
146.4
143.7
144.3
139.1
134.2
129.2
125.6
122.1
121.3

1_ 9 3 3
248.9
233.1
224.0
229.3
236.9
247.6
251.5
247.7
240.5
231.6
222.7
222.2

6.0
5.9
7.4
13.0
17..1
20.7
16.8
16.3
12.6
12.2
11.0
14.6

13.3
13.0
12.7
12.5
12.4
12.5
12.7
13.1
13.5
13.6
13.6
13.5

-7.3
-7.1
-5.3

.5
4.7
8.2
4.1
3.2
-.9
-1.4
-2.6
1.1

114.0
106.9
101.6
102.1
106.8
115.0
119.1
122.3
121.4
120.0
117.4
118*5

1_ 9 3 4

1_ 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

OutstandRepay- Credit
ings */
ments Change a/

210.5
198.9
192.3
196.2
201.8
209.5
211.9
208.2
202.0
194.3
186.4
184.5

8.0
8.4
12.4
22.5
24.3
23.6
19.1
13.9
11.4
12.6
12.4
17.8

13.5
13.4
13.5
13.8
14.4
14.9
15.1
15.2
15.1
15.0
14.9
14.9

-5.5
-5.0
-1.1

8.7
9.9
8.7
4.0
-1.3
-3.7
-2.4
-2.5

2.9

113.0
108.0
106.9
115.6
125.5
134.2
138.2
136.9
133.2
130.8
128.3
131.2

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be
understood.
b/ End of month.
(continued on next page)



- 22 -

TABIE A-14 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE STORES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Net
Credit Repay- Credit
OutstandMonth Granted ments Change &/ ings *>./

Net
Credit Repay- Credit
OutstandGranted ments Change SJ
ings 1/

1935
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$9.4
10.0
17.4
24.5
26.1
27.4
24.1
19.2
16.2
15.8
16.5
20.2

$15.1
15.1
15.1
15.3
15.3
15.3
15.4
15.7
16.1
16.3
16.4
16.6

$-5.7
-5.1
2.3
9.2
10.8
12.1
8.7
3.5
.1
-.5
.1
3.6

1937
$125.5
120.4
122.7
131.9
142.7
154.8
163.5
167.0
.167.1
166.6
166.7
170.3

$11.3
16.4
22.6
32.3
34.2
38.0
29.2
25.0
21.1
18.0
16.1
16.6

1 936
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
NOT.

Dec.

7.6
10.5
19.1
28.3
34.5
33.4
32.9
21.4
20.0
19.8
21.6
29.8

16.6
16.4
16.4
16.5
16.8
17.4
17.8
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.0
19.2

-9.0
-5.9
2.7
11.8
17.7
16.0
15.1
3.0
1.4
1.0
2.6
10.6

$19.7
19.8
20.2
20.6
21.0
21.4
21.9
22.0
22.4
22.5
22.3
22.0

$-8.4
-3.4
2.4
11.7
13.2
16.6
7.3
3.0
-1.3
-4.5
-6.2
-5.4

$228.9
225.5
227.9
239.6
252.8
269.4
276.7
279.7
278.4
273.9
267.7
262.3

19 3 8
161.3
155.4
158.1
169.9
187.6
203.6
218.7
221.7
223.1
224.1
226.7
237.3

11.2
13.3
15.2
21.2
20.2
19.0
17.7
18.2
16.7
14.8
15.8
20.9

21.3
21.2
21.1
21.0
20.9
20.6
20.0
19.9
19.8
19.7
19.4
19.1

-10.1
-7.9
-5.9
.2
-.7
-1.6
-2.3
-1.7
-3.1
-4.9
-3.6
1.8

252.2
244.3
238.4
238.6
237.9
236.3
234.0
232.3
229.2
224.3
220.7
222.5

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be
understood.
b/ End of month.







- 23 -

TABLE A-15
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET •.CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FCR
JEWELRY STORES, 1 9 2 9 - 3 8

(millions of dollars)

Outstandings

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

1929

#88.8

$85.5

1930

65.8

1931

Net
Credit
Change .2/

End
of Year

Average
for Year

$ 3.3

#56.0

#48.7

74.7

-8.9

47.1

44.8

60.3

62.0

-1.7

45.4

42.6

1932

33.9

49.5

-15.6

29.8

34.7

1933

32.3

33.0

- .7

29.1

25.4

1934

45.8

39.6

6.2

35.3

28.4

1935

56,5

52.6

3.9

39.2

32.0

1936

72.3

61.6

10.7

49.9

36.9

1937

84.6

78.8

5.8

55.7

46.5

1938

75.2

77.8

-2.6

53.1

46.0

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an
increase is to be understood.

24 TABLE A-16
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET
CREDIT CHANGE AND OXJTSTANDINGS FOR JEWELRY STORES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
in

Credit

Repay-• Net Credit OutstandChange ~Ef i n g s J /

Month Granted ments

i

i ut

ii

i

i ii

i

Credit Repay-• Net Credit OutstandChange &/ i n g s j y
Granted ments
19 5 2

1_ 9 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr..
MayJune

July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

#5.5

#7.0

5.3
7.2
7.0
8.0
7.2
4.8
6.0
6.6
5.4
6.1

7.0
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2
7.2

19.7

7.1

$-1.5
-1.7
.1

-

.1
.9
.1

-2.4
-1.2
- .6
-1.8
-1.1
12.6

#51.2
49.5
49.6
49.5
50.4
50.5
48.1
46.9
46.3
44.5
43.4
56.0

$2. o

#4.9

2.3
2.8
2.7
3.0
2.9
1.9
2.5
2.6
2.0
2.2
6.5

4.7
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.4

1 9 3 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May

June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

4.2
3.9
5.0
4.8
5.7
5.2
3.4
4.3
4.7
3.9
4.6

6.9
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.6

16.1

5.5

May

June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

4.2
3.9
5.0
4.7
5.3
4.9
3.2
4.0
4.4
3.4
4.1

-2.7
-3.0
-1.8
-1.8
- .7
-1.0
-2.7
-1.7
-1.2
-1.9
-1.0
10.6

13.2

5.3
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2

5.2'
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0

#43.0
40.6
38.8
37.0
35.7
34.5
32.4
31.0
29.8
28.1
26.7
29.8

#-2.4
-2.4
-1.8
-1.8
-1.3
-1.2
-2.1
-1.4
-1.2
-1.7
-1.4
3.1
19 3 5

53.3
50.3
48.5
46.7
46.0
45.0
42.3
40.6
39.4
37.5
36.5
47.1

1.5
1.5
1.8
2.2
2.7
2.5
1.7
2.3
2.6
2.1
2.5
8.9

2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7

1_ 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

i i

2S. 4
27.0
26.0
25.4
25.4
25.2
24.2
23.8
23.7
23.1
22.9
29.1

-1.4
-1.4
-1.0
- .6
.0

- .2
-1.0
- .4
- .1
- .6
- .2
6.2
19 5 4

-1.1
-1.3
- .2
- .5
.1

- .3
-2.0
-1.2
- .7
-1.7
-1.0
8.2

46.0
44.7
44.5
44.0
44.1
43.8
41.8
40.6
39.9
38.2
37.2
45.4

2.3
2.5
3.3
3.0
3.6
3.4
2.2
2.9
3.2
2.8
3.4

12.8

2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7

-

28.9
28.4
28.7
28.6
29.0
29.1
27.9
27.4
27.1
26.4
26.2
35.3

.2
.5
.3

-

.1
.4
.1

-1.2
- .5
- .3
- .7
- .2
9.1
ii

••

.i

I I

i

a/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood•
b/ End of month.
(continued on next page)



i ni*-

- 25 TABLE A-16 ( c o n t i n u e d )
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS, NET
CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR JEWELRY STORES, 1 9 2 9 - 3 8
(millions of d o l l a r s )
• i il

i

«•

ii

•• I

«m • n . . l i . i . i

ii.

«•

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandMonth Granted ments
Change "^J ings b/

m

i ii

I

i m i.

»

$3.2
3.0
3.9
3.8
4.5
4.2
2.8
3.8
4.3
3.6
4.4
15.1

$4.2
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.7

#»1.0
-1.2
- .3
- .5
.2
- .1
-1.6
- .6
- .3
- .9
- .2
10.4

•

Hi

i

ii»- i i

• ••

i

Credit Repay- Net Credit OutstandGranted ments
Change 1 7 ings j>/

1 9 3 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

mi

1 9 3 8
$.3413
33.1
32.8
32.3
32.5
32.4
30.8
30.2
29.9
29.0
28.8
39.2

?4.6
4.3
5.1
5.0
5.8
5.6
3.9
5.0
5.7
4.8
5.9
19.5

<|p6.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0

$5-2.3
-2.6
-1.8
-1.8
- .9
- .9
-2.5
-1.3
- .5
-1;3
- .2
13.5

#53.4
50.8
49.0
47.2
46.3
45.4
42.9
41.6
41.1
39.8
39.6
53.1

19 3 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

3.5
3.4
4.5
4.6
5.6
5.7
3.8
4.8
5.6
5.1
5.9
19.8

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.7

-1.3
-1.4
- .3
- .3
.6
.7
-1.4
- .4
.3
- .3
.4
14.1

37.9
36.5
36.2
35.9
36.5
37.2
35,8
35.4
35.7
35.4
35.8
49.9

19 3 7
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

4.6
4.7
6.3
5.9
7.0
6.9
4.9
5.7
6.7
5.6
6.4
19.9

6.0
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.0

-1.4
-1.4
.1
- .5
.5
.3
-1.8
-1.0
- .1
-1.3
- .5
12.9

48.5
47.1
47.2
46.7
47.2
47.5
45.7
44.7
44.6
43.3
42.8
55.7

a/ Minus sign i n d i c a t e s a decrease i n r e t c r e d i t ; otherwise an i n c r e a s e i s io
be understood,
b / End of month*







- 26 -

TABLE A-17
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS Ff R
"ALL OTHER STORES,"a/ 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings
Net
Credit
Cnange £/

End
of Year

Average
for Year

#272.0

$24.6

#183.0

#172.9

274.8

276.7

- 1.9

181.1

188.8

1931

237,3

254.0

-16.7

164.4

178.0

1932

153.5

198.0

-44.5

119.9

144.3

1933

158.1

152.8

5.3

125.2

116.5

1934

187.5

177.1

10.4

135.6

127.3

1935

211.9

200.0

11.9

147.5

133.1

1936

238.9

211.8

27.1

174.6

152.2

1937

254.2

240.2

14.0

188,6

181.2

1938

229.1

230.3

- 1.2

187.4

195.0

Year

Credit
Granted

Repayments

1929

$296.6

1930

a/ This group includes all types of retail establishments (not
covered in the preceding 5 classifications) whose instalment
sales are made largely to consumers,
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an
increase is to be understood*




APPENDIX B
T a b l e s
C o n s u m e r
C r e d i t

on

Cash

Loan

I n s t a l m e n t




- 1 -

TABLE B-l
AVERAGE ANNUAL INSTALMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS FOR FIVE TYPES OF LENDING
INSTITUTIONS COMBINED ,£/ 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Year

Average Outstandings

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938

$515.7
601.3
594.9
529.2
445.8
449.0
591.6
857.6
1,023.3
1,084.5

a/ Includes figures for credit unions, industrial
banking companies, personal finance companies,
commercial banks (personal loan departments), unregulated lenders, and Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Title I loans (under |2,000) held mainly
by these institutions. During 1954-37, insured FHA
Title I notes under $2,000 vTere held by all types
of lending institutions in the following proportions: commercial banks, 70,5 percent; finance
companies, 22.0 percent; industrial banks, 5,8 percent; and building and loan associations, savings
banks, credit unions and all others, 1.7 percent.
It is likely that the estimates of average outstandings presented in this table represent an
overestimate to some slight degree, since our figures for industrial banking companies include some
FHA loans which are also included in our separate
estimates for FHA loan outstandings. In the absence of accurate information as to the amount of
insured loans included in the industrial banking
company figures, it has been impossible to adjust
for them in the total estimates. Quantitatively,
however, it may be assumed that the duplication
is of negligible significance.




2 -

TABLE B-2
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR FOUR TYPES
OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS COMBINED,a/ 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
•

— • — —

»

''

Jv

ii

ii

n

•!•

Hi

i

i n ii 11

ill

• ii n in i mil

ii

ii l i t — — i i

•

i — — — —

Outstandings
Net
Credit
Change d/

End
of Year

Year

Loans
Made b/

1929

$983.3

#860.6

#122.7

#556.7

#487.4

1930

995.1

970.8

24.3

581.0

568.8

1931

938.5

978.4

-39.9

541.1

562.5

1932

712.3

795.8

-83.5

457.6

501.2

1933

584.3

633.2

-48.9

408.7

421.3

1934

723.6

690.7

32.9

441.6

418.1

1935

885.7

788.1

97.6

539.2

480.1

1936

1,190.0

1,040.4

149.6

688.8

608.1

193?

1,440.8

1,251.4

189.4

878.2

782.5

1938

1,538.0

1,479.2

58.8

937.0

901.8

Repayments sJ

Average
for Year

a/ Includes commercial banks (personal loan departments),
credit unions, industrial banking companies and personal finance companies. Excludes unregulated lenders and insured
FHA (Title I) loans of all types of institutions.
b/

Including renewals (old balances renewed).

c/

Including collections on renewed loans.

d/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood.

- 3
TABLE B-3
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS FOR FOUR TYPES
OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS COMBINED ,£' 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
•

Month

Outstandings j/*

Month

1_9 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

#440.8
447.7
455.6
464.2
477.2
May
491.1
June
July
499.7
Aug.
504.5
509.1
Sep.
Oct.
519.5
Nov.
534.5
Dec.
556.8
1 9 3 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

558.2
555.1
557.8
565.6
568.9
May
June
569.5
July
575.9
Aug.
574.7
Sep.
572.5
Oct.
574.9
Nov.
574.2
Dec.
581.1
1_ 9 3 1
Jan.
575.9
571.2
Feb.
Mar.
561.7
559.7
Apr.
562.8
May
June
562.8
July
566.6
Aug.
560.2
Sep.
554.4
Oct.
555.7
Nov.
546.4
Dec.
541.1

Outstandings j>/

Month

JL_ 9

1_ 9 3 2
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$535.5
523.6
520.3
515.5
513.2
502.8
495.6
486.0
479.4
468.4
464.6
457.6

1 9 3 3
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

446.4
436.5
423.8
422.2
417.7
May
June
414.5
July
411.4
Aug.
410.2
Sep.
408.8
Oct.
408.1
Nov.
407.6
Dec.
406.8
1_ 9 5 4
Jan.
405.7
Feb.
402.1
Mar.
402.2
Apr.
405.0
410.6
May
June
415.7
July
420.0
Aug.
426.5
Sep.
427.5
Oct.
432.0
Nov.
434.4
Dec.
441.7

Outstandings P/'

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

ings 2/

1_9 5 8
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$873.5
870.2
879.2
886.8
890.4
902.3
905.0
907.9
911.5
913.5
918.4
957.0

1_ 9 5 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

547.4
554.2
574.4
590.5
May
605.8
June
604.8
July
613.5
Aug.
625.2
Sep.
656.5
Oct.
648.6
661.4
Nov.
688.5
Dec.
1_ 9 5 7
Jan.
695.2
Feb.
705.2
726.0
Mar.
Apr.
752.2
774.9
May
June
798.5
July
814.0
Aug.
823.1
Sep.
844.6
Oct.
852.3
858.7
Nov.
Dec.
878.2

a/ Includes ooinraercial banks (personal loan departments), credit unions,
industrial banking companies and personal finance companies. Excludes
unregulated lenders and insured FEA (Title I) loans of all types of institutions •
b/ End of month.




^ — — »

OutstandMonth

3 5
$443.0
441.8
446.9
455.4
465.0
476.4
491.1
501.9
508.1
516.0
521.1
538.7

"

- 4 -

TABLE B-4
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBLTION %J OF AVERAGE INSTALMENT LOAN
OUTSTANDINGS BY TYPES OE LENDING INSTITUTIONS,
19E9-38

FHA
Industrial Personal
(Title I)
Banking
Finance
Unregulated
Loans
Companies
Companies
Lenders
Insured Total

Year

Commercial
Banks jy

Credit
Unions

1929

5.9

5.9

39.1

43.6

5.5

—

100.0

1930

7.3

5.2

36.6

45.5

5.4

—

100.0

1931

7.1

5.0

34.3

48.1

5.5

—

100.0

1932

6.6

5.3

31.4

51.4

5.3

—

100.0

1933

6.7

6.1

28.5

53.2

5.5

—

100.0

1934

7.5

6.6

26.8

52.2

6.1

.8

100.0

1935

9.4

6.5

23.0

42.3

6.3

12.5

100.0

1936

11.8

6.4

20.1

32.6

6.1

23.0

100.0

1937

17.5

7.8

20.2

30.9

6.7

16.9

100.0

1938

21.1

9.5

20.5

32.1

8.2

8.6

100.0

a/ Distribution includes a column showing percentage of average loan (under
1*2,000) outstandings ins wed by FEA (Title I) for all types of lending institutions combined. For explanation of FHA outstandings estimates see
footnote a, Table B-l.
Jb/ Personal loan departments.







- 5 -

TABLE B-5
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR
COMMERCIAL BANKS ,S 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Loans
Made jy

1929

$65.6

$41.4

1930

71.1

1931

Net
Credit
Change $J

End
of Year

Average
for Year

$24.2

$42.6

$30.4

68.6

2.5

45.1

43.8

62.7

69.0

-6.3

38.8

42.0

1932

51.5

59.3

-7.8

31.0

35.0

1933

46.0

48.3

-2.3

28.7

29.9

1934

63.5

53.6

9.9

38.6

33.7

1935

108.3

75.3

33.0

71.6

55.3

1936

199.5

140.6

58.9

130.5

100.8

1937

305.8

221.3

84.5

215.0

179.3

1938

374.9

341.9

33.0

248.0

228.5

Repayments Su

a/ Personal loan departments.
b/

Includes renewals (old balances renewed).

c/

Including collections on renewed loans*

&/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood*

- 6 TABLE B-6
MONTHLY TOTALS OF MSTALLiENT LOA1TS HADE, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR COMMERCIAL BAUKS &/, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Loans Repay- Net Credit OutstandMonth Made ments Change jj7~ ings 2J

Loans

Repay-'

19 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

§2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.2

19 5 2

§-.6

$20.4
22.4
24.4
26.4
28.4
30.4
32,4
34.4
36.4
38.4
40.4
42.6

-.7
-.6
-.7
-.6
-.7
-.6
-.7
-.6
-.7
-.6
-.7

19 5 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.2
.3

-.5
-.5
-.6
-.5
-.5
-.5
-.6
-.5
-.5
-.5
-.6
-.5

^38.2
37.5
36.9
36.2
35.6
54.9
54.3
33.6
33.0
32.3
31.7
31.0

19 5 5
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.1
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.2
-.2

42.8
43.0
43.2
45.4
45.6
45.8
44.0
44.2
X X . TC

44.6
44.8
45.1

30.8
30.6
30.4
30.2
30.0
29.9
29.7
29.5
29.3
29.1
28.9
28.7

19 5 4

19 5 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Net Credit Outstandings SJ

Made i / ments SJ Change y

44.6
44.1
45.5
45.0
42.5
42.0
41.4
40.9
40.4
59.9
59.3
38,8

$4. ,5
4 , ,0
4 . ,7
4. ,7
5. .7
6.,1
5,,7
5.,5
5,.6
6,.1
5,.4
5,.7

$5.4
5.6
3.8
4.1
4.5
5.1
4.7
4.8
4.8
5.1
4.8
5.1

.9
.4
.9
.6
1.4
1.0
1.0
.7
.8
1.0
.6
.6

29.6
30.0
30.9
31.5
32.9
33.9
34.9
35.6
36.4
37.4
38.0
38.6

a/ Personal loan departments. Data on loans made and repayments for 1929-33
not available,
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
c/ End of month.
d/ Including renewals (old balances renewed),
e/ Including collections on renewed loans,
,
.
x
-/ *
(continued on next page)




- 7-

TABLE B-6 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTAMENT LOANS MADE, HEPiOMEMTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR COMMERCIAL BANKS S/, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Loans
Month Made

Repay- Net Credit Outstandments 2/
Change j7 Trigs £/

Loans Repay- Net Ciedit Out standMade SL/ ments £./ Change £ / ings ©/

19 3 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune

July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

#6.1

$4.4

$1.7

6.2
8.4
8.7
8.8
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.4

3.9
5.3
5.3
5.7
6.1
6.5
6,9
7.0
8.0
7.5
8.5

2.3
3.1
3.4
3.1
3.8
3.3
2.9
2.4
2.3
2.0

10.3
9.5

10.7

2.2

19 3 7
$40.3
42.6
45.7
49.1
52.2
56.0
59.3
62.2
64.6
66.9
68.9
71.1

$17.6,
19.8
26.3
28.1
28.0
29.9
26,7
25.1
26,2
25.4
25.3
27.5

$10.0
13.1
17.2
16.4
17.4
19.8
19.4
19.3
21.0
21.4
22.6
23.5

19 5 6
Jan.
Feb.
liar.
Apr.
May

June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

10.8
10.7
15.3
15.9
17.0
19.0
17.2
17.4
17.4
18.2
18.2
22.0

7.7
6.9
9.0
9.2

10.4
14.5
12.4
12.0
13.7
13.6
13.4
17.2

3.1
3.8
6.3
6.7
6.6
4.5
4.8
5.4
3,7
4.6
4,8
4.8

$7.6
6.7
9.1

11.7
10.6
10.1
7.3
5.8
5,2
4.0
2.7

4.0

$137.8
144.5
153.6
165.3
175.9
186.0
193.3
199.1
204.3
208.3
211.0
215.0

1_ 9 3 8
74.2
78.0
84.3
91.0
97.6
102.1
106.9
112.3
116.0
120.6
125.4
130.2

24.2
23.1
30.9
32.0
31.7
34,7
31,5
33.7
34.0
31.2
31,9
36.0

24.8
23.8
28.2
28.0
29.1
29.2
28.5
29.3
28.8
30.3
30.2
31.7

- .6
- .7
2.7
4.0
2.6
5.5
3.0
4.4
5.2
,9
1.7
4.3

214.4
213.7
216.4
220.4
223.0
228,5
231.5
235,9
241.1
242.0
243.7
248.0

a/ Personal loan departments* Data on loans made and repayments for 1929-33
not available,
b/

Including renewals (old balances renewed).

o/ Including collections on renewed loans,
&/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit;,otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
ej End of month*






- 8 -

TABLE B-7
ANKUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS FADE, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CBA1CE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR
CREDIT UNIONS, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Loans
Made

Repayments J£/

Net
Credit
Change $J

End
Average
of Year for Year

1929

$41.7

|39.2

$2.5

$31.9

$30.7

1930

40.9

41.9

-1.0

30.9

31.4

1931

37.6

39.4

-1.8

29.1

30.0

1932

34.4

36.6

-2.2

26.9

28.0

1933

32.5

32.1

.4

27.3

27.1

1934

42.3

37.5

4.8

32.1

29.7

1935

66.7

54.5

12.2

44.3

38.2

1936

105.1

83.4

21.7

66.0

55.2

1937

147.5

120.7

26.8

92.8'

79.4

1938

179.4

159.2

20.2

a/

Including renewals (old balances renewed).

b/

Including collections on renewed loans•

113.0

102.9

0/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an
increase is to be understood.

- 9 TABLE B-8
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALLMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS FOR
CREDIT UNIONS, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Outstandings g 7

Month

1_ 9 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

.$29.2
29,2
29.0
29.5
29.6
30.4
29.9
29.7
30.3
30.8
31.1
32.0

1_ 9 3 2
Jan.
Feb,
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1_ 9 3 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep,
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

31.1
30.3
30.0
30.0
30.3
30.7
30.8
30.7
30.3
30.2
30.4
31.0




30.5
30.5
29.2
28.3
28.5
28.4
28.7
28.7
28.2
28.7
29.3
29,1
End of month.

$29.2
28.3
28.5
28.4
28.4
28.4
28.1
27.8
27.4
26.8
26.7
26.9

Month

L9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1_ 9 5 5
Jan,
Feb,
Mar.
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1_ 9 5 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,

Outstandings J /

26.6
25,7
24.7
24.6
25.0
25.5
25,9
26.2
26.2
26.6
26.8
27.4

Jan,
Feb*
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,

27,0
26.4
26.8
27.3
28.1
28.9
29.1
29.9
30.2
31.0
31.5
52,2

$52.7
52.9
53.9
35.2
36.9
58,5
59.6
40.7
41.0
42.1
42.7
44.5

44.9
44»9
46,8
48.9
51,1
55,6
55.7
56,9
58.8
61.5
65.5
66.0
1_ 9 5 7

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,

Month

i.

5 5

1_ 9 5 6

1_ 9 5 4
Jan.
Feb.
liar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Outstandi n g s a/

67.7
68,0
70.5
75.5
76.5
81.5
85,2
85.6
66.8
88.9
90.7
92.8

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug,
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Outstandi n g s j*7
9 5 8
$91.9
94.3
95.5
98.5
101.7
105,9
107.0
107.7
107.2
108.3
110.4
113,0




10 T

TABLE B-S
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR INDUSTRIAL
BANKING COMPANIES,!/ 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Loans
Made J?

Repayments SJ

Net
Credit
Change jj/

End
Average
of Year for Year

1929

$413.2

#387.2

#26.0

#219.0

#201.5

1930

380.2

381.3

-1.1

217.9

220.1

1931

340.3

373.8

-33.5

184.4

204.1

1932

250.2

291.5

-41.3

143.1

166.1

1933

201. b

224.0

-22.4

120.7

127.0

1934

233.7

229.0

4.7

125.4

120.5

1935

287.5

256.7

30.8

156.2

136.3

1936

322.3

287.2

35.1

191.3

172.7

1937

372.2

342.9

29.3

220.6

207.1

1938

379.3

369.9

9.4

230.0

222.8

a/ Estimates include some FHA (TIT1.2 I) loans. For explanation
see footnote a, Table B-l.
b/

Including renewals (old balances renewed).

c/

Including collections on renewed loans.

d/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise
an increase is to be understood.

- 11
TABLE B-10
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR INDUSTRIAL BANKING COMPANIES, a/
1929-38
(millions of dollars)
nT>

Net
Loans
OutstandRepay- , Credit
ings ©/
Month Made b/ ments j°/' Change $/

i.9
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

#31.2
27.8
33.6
33.8
38.9
36.2
34.5
32.9
31.7
37.3
36.1
39.2

#31.7
28.3
32.2
32.0
33.7
32.3
33.7
33.5
31.8
34.3
31.1
32.6

mil- in.

Net
OutstandLoans
Credit
Repayings e/
Made b/ ments c/ Change &/

2 9

#-.5
-.5
1.4
1.8
5.2
3.9
.8
-.6
-.1
3.0
5.0
6.6

1_ 9 5 2
$192.5
192.0
193.4
195.2
200.4
204.3
205.1
204.5
204.4
207.4
212.4
219.0

$22.3
20.6
24.2
23.3
21.8
22.6
19.7
20.0
19.6
18.4
17.8
19.9

#24.1
27.0
25.2
24.7
20.9
27.2
24.4
26.7
22.8
22.8
21.8
23.9

9 5 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

31.8
28.4
31.5
35.5
33. S
33.8
31.5
29.5
2S.2
31.6
28.7
34.8

31.8
31.0
30.5
30.7
34.7
35.5
27.7
31.2
30.1
31.1
31.1
35.9

.0
-2.6
1.0
4.8
-.8
-1.7
3.8
-1.7
-.9
.5
-2.4
-1.1

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

28.7
25.1
30.2
30.1
29.6
32.8
29.1
26.6
25.9
27.3
24.7
30.2

36.8
27.9
32.9
27.9
27.8
33.1
27.8
32.5
29.8
26.0
34.3
37.0

-8.1
-2.8
-2.7
2.2
1.8
-.3
1.3
-5.9
-3.9
1.3
-9.6
-6.8

#-1.8
-6.4
-1.0
-1.4
.9
-4.6
-4.7
-6.7
-3.2
-4.4
-4.0
-4.0

#182.6
176.2
175.2
173.8
174.7
170.1
165.4
158.7
155.5
151.1
147.1
143.1

1_ 9 3 3

219.0
216.4
217.4
222.2
221.4
219.7
223.5
221.8
220.9
221.4
219.0
217.9

15.3
13.3
13.7
16.6
18.0
19.8
17.2
17.9
18.7
17.5
15.9
17.7

21.3
18*7
18.9
17.9
18.4
19.5
18.2'
18.6
16.4
18.2
17.7
20.2

1_ 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

i.

-6.0
-5.4
-5.2
-1.3
-.4
.3
-1.0
-.7
2.3
-.7
-1.8
-2.5

137.1
131.7
126.5
125.2
124.8
125.1
124.1
123.4
125.7
125.0
123.2
120.7

1_ 9 5 4

209.8
207.0
204.3
206.5
208.3
208.0
209.3
2C5.4
199.5
200.8
191.2
184.4

16.5
14.9
18.7
18.5
20.3
22.1
20.2
21.3
18.9
22.0
18.7
21.6

19.3
17.1
18.3
18.2
18.7
20.0
19.4
18.8
17.9
21.1
19.1
21.1

-2.8
-2.2
.4
.3
1.6
2.1
.8
2.5
1.0
.9
-.4
.5

117.9
115.7
116.1
116.4
118.0
120.1
120.9
123.4
124.4
125.3
124.9
125.4

a/ Estimates include some FHA (Title I) loans. For explanation see footnote a,
Table B-l.
b/ Including renewals (old balances renewed).
c/ Including collections on renewed loans.
&/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
e/ End of month.




- 12 -

TABLE B-10 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR INDUSTRIAL BANKING COMPANIES, &/
1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Net
Loans
RepayCredit
OutstandMonth Made *>/ ments $J Change d/
ings ©/
•••

«•'

— — — •

Ml i

l

me

•

l

Loans
Made

II I mi

I'

III

ll

in

19 3 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$18.8
18.0
22.3
23.8
23.8
25.1
26.4
26.9
24.1
25.4
25.0
27.9

•19.2
19.0
20.9
21.0
21.9
21.1
20.6
23.9
21.0
22.6
23.8
21.7

#-4
-1.0
1.4
2.8
1.9
4.0
5.8
3.0
3.1
2.8
1.2
6.2

23.3
21.9
32.9
26.2
27.9
28.8
27.3
25.2
25.9
26.0
25.5
31.4

20.8
20.9
25.7
24.9
25.1
25.9
25.8
23.0
23.3
24.4
22.7
24.7

2.5
1.0
7.2
1.3
2.8
2.9
1.5
2.2
2.6
1.6
2.8
6.7

•

Outstandings §J

HI

Ill

I

19 3?
|125.0
124.0
125.4
128.2
130.1
134.1
139.9
142.9
146.0
148.8
150.0
156.2

tjp<do* y

24.8
35.3
32.3
33.7
34.9
31.9
29.8
29.6
31.0
29.5
33.5

#26.7
22.8
30.1
27.0
28.5
32.8
29.5
28.4
28.8
29.4
27.6
31.3

1_ 9 3 6
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

Net
Credit
Change

Repayments

|190.5
192.5
197.7
203.0
208.2
210.3
212.7
214.1
214.9
216.5
218.4
220.6

$-.8
2.0
5.2
5.3
5.2
2.1
2.4
1.4
.8
1.6
1.9
2.2
1, 9 3 8

158.7
159.7
166.9
168.2
171.0
173.9
175.4
177.6
180.2
181.8
184.6
191.3

26.8
25.7
32.1
32.5
32.8
34.7
31.4
31.1
29.6
30.3
33.0
39.3

29.5
27.9
28.2
32.3
31.0
30.7
31.4
31.6
29.1
31.7
31.3
35.2

-2.7
-2.2
3.9
.2
1.8
-4.0
.0
-.5
.5
-1.4
1.7
4.1

217.9
215.7
219.6
219.8
221.6
225.6
225.6
225.1
225.6
224.2
225.9
230.0
i

ii

»

ii

i

a/ Estimates include some FHA (Title I) loans. For explanation see footnote a,
Table B-l.
b/ Including renewals (old balances renewed).
o/ Including collections on-renewed loans.
d/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be
understood.
e/ End of month.




• ' <




- 13 -

TABLE B-ll
ANNUAL TOTALS CF INSTAH.1ENT LOANS MADE, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR PERSONAL FINANCE COMPANIES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings
Net
Credit
Change 0/

End
of Year

Average
for Year

Year

Loans
Made

1929

#462.8

#392.8

#70.0

$263*2

#224.8

1930

502.9

479.0

23.9

287.1

273.5

1931

497.9

496.2

1.7

288,8

286.4

1932

376.2

408.4

-32.2

256.6

272.1

1933

304.2

328.8

-24.6

232.0

237.3

1934

384.1

370.6

13,5

245.5

234.2

1935

423.2

401.6

21.6

267.1

250.3

1936

563.1

529.2

33.9

301.0

279.4

193?

615.3

566.5

48.8

349.8

316.7

1938

604.4

608.2

-3.8

346.0

347.6

Repayments ]>/

a/

Including renewals (old balances renewed)*

b/

Including collections on renewed loans*

0/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an
increase is to be understood*

- 14 TABLE B-12
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTAIltENT LOANS MADE, HEFAXHENTS, NET CREDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR PERSONAL FINANCE COMPANIES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Loans
RepayMonth Made a/ ments

Net
OutCredit
standChange 0/ ings Qj

Loans
Made

Net
RepayCredit
ments £/ Change

Outstand-

2/
1_ 9 5 2

1 9 2 9
Jan.
Feb.
MarP
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$33.2
31.6
37.1
34.9
37.6
40.7
41.8
38.7
35.0
40.1
41.3
50.8

$27.7
26.2
32.4
30.8
31.7
33.5
35.5
35.1
32.9
35.2
33.6
38,2

$5.5
5.4
4.7
4.1
5.9
7.2
6,5
3.6
2.1
4.9
7.7
12.6

$198,7
204.1
208.8
212.9
218.8
226,0
232.3
235.9
238.0
242.9
250.6
263.2

$30,8
30.7
35,5
34.9
51.6
32.6
28.3
28.5
27.4
27.9
28.0
40.0

$34.2
34.5
37.4
37.5
34.2
37.7
29.9'
30.4
29.8
33.2
27.1
42.5

1 9 3 0
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

37.4
30.8
36.9
40.8
44.3
45.7
43.3
39.4
37.7
41.5
41.4
63.7

35.3
30.7
35.1
38.0
40.7
44.0
41.0
39.0
38.8
39.7
40.1
56.6

2.1
.1
1.8
2.8
3.6
1.7
2.3
.4
-1.1
1.8
1.3
7.1

43.9
35.7
38.7
41.4
41.7
45.8
45.1
41.6
40.0
40.9
37.5
45.6

40.0
37,1
43.6
44.2
40.1
44.9
42.3
41.6
40.9
40.9
37.2
43.4

3.9
-1.4
-4.9
-2.8
1.6
.9
2.8
.0
- .9
.0
.3
2.2

$285.4
281.6
279.7
277.1
274.5
269.4
267.8
265.9
263.5
258.2
259.1
256.6

1_ 9 3 5
265.3
265.4
267.2
270.0
273.6
275.3
277.6
278.0
276.9
278.7
280.0
287.1

25.6
21.9
20.1
22.8
21.9
23.4
23.9
25.6
23.9
25.9
27.9
41.3

30.3
25.3
26.4
22.8
26.2
27.3
26.2
26.2
27.4
26.1
26.6
38.0

1 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$-3.4
-3.8
-1.9
-2.6
-2.6
-5.1
-1.6
-1.9
-2.4
-5.3
.9
-2.5

ings d/

-4.7
-3.4
-6.3
.0
-4.3
-3.9
-2.3
- .6
-3.5
- .2
1.3
3.3

251.9
248.5
242.2
242,2
237.9
234.0
231.7
231.1
227.6
227.4
228.7
232.0

1_ 9 3 4
291.0
289.6
284.7
281.9
283.5
284.4
287.2
287.2
286.3
286.3
286.6
288.8

27.0
21.4
30.2
30.3
31.5
34.9
32.4
33.9
30.0
34.1
33.2
45.2

27.8
22.6
31.8
28.9
29.7
33.7
30.1
31.4
31.1
32.3
31.3
39.9

- .8
-1.2
-1.6
1.4
1.8
1.2
2.3
2.5
-1.1
1.8
1.9
5.3

231.2
230.0
228.4
229.8
231.6
232,8
255.1
237,6
236.5
238.3
240.2
245.5

BJ Including renewals (old balances renewed).
b/ Including collections on renewed loans.
oj Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
d/ End of month.
>
.
N
—'
(continued on next page)




- 15 -

TABLE B-12 (continued)
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT LOANS IIADE, REPAYMENTS, NET CEEDIT
CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOR PERSONAL FINANCE C01.1PANIES, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Month

Loans
RepayMade a/ ments BJ

Net
OutCredit
standChange £/ ings g/

Net
Loans
RepayCredit
Made a/ ments. JiS^ Change

1 93 5
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.

Apr.
MayJune
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$27.8
25.6
31.7
35.5
34.4
37.0
37.1
36.6
31.6
36.1
36.6
53.2

#29.3
27.3
32.1
34.5
31.5
34.8
32.8
32.8
31.2
34.4
35.3
45.6

$-1.5
-1.7
- .4
1.0
2.9
2.2
4.3
3.8
.4
1.7
1.3
7.6

1 9
$244.0
242.3
241.9
242.9
245.8
248.0
252.3
256.1
256.5
258.2
259.5
267.1

$43.2
42.6
57.3
52.8
55.0
59.3
49.0
44.0
46.4
48.4
48.4
68.9

1 95 6
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

36.4
37.2
45.1
48.3
45.7
46.2
43.8
48.1
46.4
47.0
45.5
73.4

33.9
35.2
40.3
42.3
42,0
57.1
43.7
45.2
43.3
43.6
42,1
60.5

2.5
2.0
4.8
6,0
3.7
-10.9
.1
2.9
3.1
3.4
3,4
12,9

$44.0
42.6
51.3
48.6
51.1
52.9
44.9
42,5

34.1
48.4
48.4
57.7

Outstand£/ ings £/

3 7

3- .8
.0
6.0
4.2
3.9
6.4
4.1
1.5
12,3
.0
.0
11.2

$300.2
300.2
306.2
310.4
314.3
320.7
324.8
326.3
338.6
338.6
338.6
349.8

1 95 8
269.6
271.6
276.4
282.4
286.1
275.2
275.3
278.2
281.3
284.7
288.1
301.0

39.1
34.7
44.5
49.8
46.1
51.3
49.4
49.9
48.3
53.5
55,8
82.0

a/

Including renewals (old balances renewed).

b/

Including collections on renewed loans.

39.6
37.5
43.3
49.4
50.1
53.1
50.8
51.6
49.8
52.4
56.2
74.4

- .5
-2.8
1.2
.4
4.0
-1.8
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
1.1
- .4
7.6

349.3
346.5
347.7
348.1
344.1
342.3
340.9
339.2
337.7
338.8
338.4
346.0

0/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to
be understood.
d/



End of month.




~ 16 ~

TABLE B-13
ANNUAL TOTALS OF M T CREDIT CHANGE
AND OF INSTALMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS
FOR UNREGULATED LENDERS 4 / 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Net Credit
Change 1>7

End of Year

1929

$6,0

$31.3

1930

2.3

1931

Average for Year

«jp2o« o

33.6 •

32.5

-2.5

31.1

32.4

1932

-6.2

24.9

28.0

1933

- .9

24.0

24.5

1934

6.9

30.9

27.5

1935

12.8

43.7

37.3

1936

16.5

60.2

52.0

1937

16.1

76.3

68.3

1938

25.8

102.1

89.2

a/ Institutions in this category are companies which
extend instalment cash loans and are situated for tho
most part in states with no adequate small loan legislation.
b/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit;
otherwise an increase is to be understood•




- 17

-

TABLE B - 1 4
ANNUAL TOTALS OF MET CREDIT CftlKGE AND OUTSTANDIFGS ON FHA (TITIE I ) LOANS UNDER
$ 2 , 0 0 0 FOE ALL TYPES OF LENDING INSTITUTIONS COMBINED,2/ 1 9 3 4 - 3 8

(millions of dollars)
Outstandings

Year

Net
Credit
Change

1934

End
of Year

Average
for Year

22.5

22.8

3.4

1935

134.9

157.7

74.2

1936

55.4

213.1

197.5

1937

-105.7

107.8

172.5

10.0

117.8

93.5

1938

y

a/ For explanation of FHA outstandings estimates see
footnote a, Table B-l*
b/

Estimates for 1938 are preliminary.




APPENDIX C
Tables
Loan
Credit

on

Retail

Consumer
Combined

and

Cash

Instalment




_ 1 _.

TABLE C - l
VOLUME AND PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF AVERAGE RETAIL AND
INSTALMENT LOAN OUTSTANDINGS COMBINED, BY
TYPE OF CREDIT, 1 9 2 9 - 3 8

Year

Retail Instalment
Average Outstandings

Instalment Loan
Average Outstandings $/

Total of Retail
and Loan Instalment
Average Outstandings

Volume
(millions
of dollars) Percent

Volume
(millions
of dollars) Percent

Volume
(millions
of dollars) Percent

1929

$2465.3

82.7

#515.7

17.3

$2981.0

100.0

1930

2306.4

79.3

601.3

20.7

2907.7

100.0

1931

1862.9

75.8

594.9

24.2

2457.8

100.0

1932

1286.1

70.8

.529.2

29.2

1815.3

100.0

1933

1052.5

70,2

445.8

29.8

1498.3

100.0

1934

1267.2

73.8

449.0

26.2

1716.2

100.0

1935

1567.1

72.6

591.6

27.4

2158.7

100.0

1936

2108.3

71.1

857.6

28.9

2965.9

100.0

1937

2641.3

72.1

1023.3

27.9

3664.6"

100.0

1938

2337.9

68.3s

1084,5

31.7

34B2.4

100.0

a/

Including insured (MIA) loans under ^>2f000.

TABLE C-2
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION S/ OF AVERAGE INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS BY TYPES OF RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS
AND LENDING HTSTITUTIONS, 1929-38

R e t a i l

Year

E s t a b l i s h m e n t s

L e n d i n g

Dealers
in New
Depart- Furni- Household
"All
and Used
ment
ture Appliance Jewelry Otherft
Automobiles Stores Stores Stores
Stores Stores

I n s t i t u t i o n s

FHA
CommerIndustrial Personal Unregu- Title I
cial
Credit Banking
Finance
lated
Loans
Banks £/ Unions Companies Companies Lenders Insured

Total

1929

42.3

6.7

18.2

8.1

1.6

5.8

1.0

1.0

6.8

7.5

1.0

—

100.0

1930

38.2

6.3

18.6

8.2

1.5

6.5

1.5

1.1

7.6

9.4

1.1

—

100.0

1931

31.5

7.6

19.6

8.2

1.7

7.2

1.7

1.2

8.3

11.7

1.3

—

1932

25.1

7.8

20.2

7.9

1.9

8.0

1.9

1.5

9.2

15.0

1.5

—

100.0 «
to
100.0 •

1933

25.3

8.5

19.4

7.6

1.7

7.8

2.0

1.8

8.5

15.8

1.6

—

100.0

1934

31.3

9.0

17.3

7.3

1.6

7.4

2.0

1.7

7.0

13.6

1.6

0.2

100.0

1935

35.8

7.9

14.3

6.9

1.5

6.2

2.6

1.8

6.3

11.6

1.7

3.4

100.0

1936

39.6

6.8

11.7

6.6

1.2

5.1

3.4

1.9

5.8

9.4

1.8

6.7

100.0

1937

41.6

6.5

10.8

7.0

1.3

4.9

4.9

2.2

5.6

8.6

1.9

4.7

100.0

1938

37.1

6.4

10.9

6.9

1.3

5.7

6.7

3.0

6.5

10.2

2.6

2.7

100.0

a/ Distribution includes a column showing percentage of average instalment outstandings on loans under $2,000 insured
by FHA (Title I) for all types of lending institutions combined. For explanation of FHA outstandings estimates see
footnote a, Table B-l.
b/ Personal loan departments.






- 3 -

TABLE C-3
ANNUAL TOTALS OF INSTALMENT CREDIT GRANTED, REPAYMENTS,
NET CREDIT CHANGE AND OUTSTANDINGS FOM SIX TYPES CF
RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS AND FOUR TYPES CF LENDING
INSTITUTIONS & COMBINED, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)

Outstandings
Net
Credit
Change d/

End
of Year

Average
for Year

Year

Credit
Granted £/

1929

#5281.7

$4802.4

$479.3

13181.5

$2952.0

1930

4347.8

4821.0

-473.2

2708.3

2874.4

1931

3409.8

3913.7

-503.9

2204,4

2424.5

1932

2075.8

2787.0

-711.2

1493.2

1787.3

1933

2168.4

2069.2

99.2

1592.4

1472.6

1934

2673.0

2460.2

212.8

1805.2

1684.4

1935

3558.3

3000.6

557.7

2362.9

2046.9

1936

4657.4

3884.9

772.5

3135.4

2714.7

1937

5107.6

4643.8

463.8

3599.2

3423.6

1938

4140.7

4615.4

-474.7

3124.5

3239.4

Repayments 2/

a/ Excluding unregulated lenders and insured IHA (Title I) loans of
all types of institutions*
b/ Including loan renewals (old balances renewed) of cash loan
agencies•
0/

Including collections on cash loan balances renewed*

d/ Minus sign indicates a decrease in net credit; otherwise an increase is to be understood*




4 TABLE C-4
MONTHLY TOTALS OF INSTALMENT OUTSTANDINGS FOR FIVE TYPES OF
RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS £/ AND FOUR TYPES OF LENDING
INSTITUTIONS ±/ COMBINED, 1929-38
(millions of dollars)
OutstandMonth

ings sJ

Outstand-

OutstandMonth

1_ 9 2 9

ings sJ

Month

ings if

#1,938.3
1,840.4
1,768.4
1,718.2
1,678.4
May
June
1,640.5
July
1,572.4
Aug.
1,522.6
Sept.
1,480.0
1*438,8
Oct.
Nov.
1,397.3
Dec.
1,373.3

#1,648.7
1,644.0
1,698.8
1,790.1
1,873.5
May
June
1,946.4
2,016.1
July
2,072.5
Aug.
2,090.1
Sept.
2,105.9
Oct.
2,135.2
Nov.
2,214.9
Dec.

1 9 3 0

1 9 3 3

1, 9 3 6

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

2,863.5
2,749.4
2,710.8
2,737.9
2,722.1
2,731.1
2,709.4
2,676.0
2,635.7
2,599.2
2,531.1
2,527.3

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1^ 9 3 1
Jan.
Feb.
Mar*
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

2,416.9
2,322.2
2,272.1
2,273.6
2,282.4
2,277.0
2,254.3
2,214.7
2,167.9
2,128.9
2,062.0
2,040.0

1,324.3
1,278.0
1,243.9
1,254.0
1,289.9
1,332.6
1,358.3
1,408.9
1,439.5
1,461.5
1,458.7
1,467.3

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1_ 9 5 4
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1,426.9
1,409.1
1,427.3
1,478.2
1,543.7
1,593.1
1,621.6
1,651.0
1,647.6
1,662.1
1,653.3
1,669.7

Outstandings £/

1_ 9 5 8

1_ 9 3 5

1_ 9 3 2

$2,470.7
2,429.1
2,481.7
2,600.3
2,740.7
May
2,861.0
June
2,947.0
July
3,009.4
Aug.
3,012.2
Sept.
3,030.3
Oct.
2,993.7
Nov.
2,998.6
Dec.

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

Month

Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

$5,286.9
3,176.9
3,127.3
3,090.2
3,052.7
3,020.6
2,965.9
2,943.2
2,902.1
2,869.0
2,869.7
2,937.1

2,189.9
2,172.7
2,254.0
2,382.4
2,519.9
2,639.0
2,727.4
2,784.7
2,817.1
2,833.2
2,848.6
2,960.5

1, 9 5 7
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.

May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec*

2,922.4
2,897.6
2,988.0
3,104.6
3,251.1
5,552.6
5,415.7
5,467.8
5,489.4
5,469.2
5,426.5
5,410.6

a/ Excluding "all other'* stores.
b/ Excluding unregulated lenders and insured FHA (Title I) loans of all types
of institutions.
c/ End of month.




APPENDIX: D
Methods
and
the

o£

Estimate

Limitations
Data

of




APPENDIX D

M e t h o d s
of
L i m i t a t i o n s

E s t i m a t e
of
the

and
Data

IN THE development of the quantitative measures of consumer instalment credit which have been presented in this study we have employed
two general methods - one for the retail group estimates and the
other for the cash loan estimates. Because of the diversity of the
source material within each of these two major categories, moreover,
it has been necessary to introduce certain deviations from the general methods in the compilation of individual series. The following
exposition, therefore, seeks not only to set forth the principal
procedures used for the two major fields of instalment credit, but
also to explain how those methods were modified in several instances
in order that they might be adjusted to the peculiarities and limitations of the data at hand.

A.

RETAIL INSTALMENT CREDIT

General Procedure
The procedure —' outlined below was employed in the construction of
the estimates for the five principal types of establishments comprising

1/ The steps in procedure sketched in this general outline must not
be considered to apply rigidly to all fields in the retail group. Because the data on automobile sales were derived from a special source,
the method in this case differed in several respects from that described in the general outline. Estimates for *all other* stores are
annual only, and the method for developing this series likewise differed widely from that for the five principal retail categories* These
deviations are discussed in detail at a later point.

- 1 r




~ 2 ~

the retail group: dealers in new and used passenger automobiles, and
department, furniture, household appliance and jewelry stores.
1, Annual total retail sales series were obtained for
each of the five principal types of retail establishments*
2*

The percent of total sales made on an instalment
basis by each type of establishment was calculated*

3#

The annual retail sales series were multiplied by the
percent of retail sales made on instalment to produce
annual series of instalment sales. These sales were
considered to represent the amount of instalment
credit granted.

4.

The instalment sales, or amounts of credit granted,
were then distributed on a monthly basis for each year
covered*

5.

The average duration of indebtedness in months was
computed for each retail field.

6.

The size of monthly payment for each amount of credit
granted was derived through division of the amount of
credit granted in each month of one year by the average duration of indebtedness (in months) for that
year.

7.

The amount of repayments made in each month was calculated by addition of the monthly payments due in a
given month on all unliquidated credit grants of previous months.

8.

Outstandings were estimated by subtraction of total
repayments from total credit granted.

Characteristics and Limitations of the Data
As we have already indicated, differences in the characteristics of
source materials necessitated certain additional steps in procedure*
These deviations we shall describe at this point, before we treat in
separate detail each of the six fields of retail credit covered in
this study.




- 3 -

Annual retail sales series of four types of retail establish**
ments - department, furniture, household appliance and jewelry stores
- were obtained from the Census of Business «=r for the censal years
1929, 1933 and 1935, and from Department of Commerce 5/ estimates for
interoensal years. Series on instalment sales as a percentage of total
s^les for these four groups were worked up, with the 1935 Census instalment sales percentages used as bases, from the trend shown in the
annual Retail Credit Surveys -/ covering the years 1925-27 and 1929-38*
The total instalment sales of each of these four types of retail establishments were computed through multiplication of their retail sales
estimates by the percent of their total sales made on instalment in
each year.
Monthly instalment sales series were constructed as follows:
the estimated annual total instalment sales series were distributed
monthly according to the sales of similar trade samples reporting to
the Retail Credit Survey for most recent years; additional compilations

2/

Census of Business, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce,

J3/ Market Data Section, Marketing Research Division, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Department of Commerce»
4/ The Retail Credit Survey is an annual publication of the Credit
Analysis Unit, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, Department of
Commerce. Bach Retail Credit Survey reports the operation of an identical number of stores over a two-year period. Stores are separated
according to type of business, i.e., furniture$ jewelry, household appliance , etc. Using the figures relating to the percent sold on instalment, we calculated the increase or decrease in these percentage
figures over a two-year period for identical stores, then worked backward and forward to apply the calculated results to the 1935 Census of
Business instalment sales percentages as a base (Census of Business?
1935, vol. VI, p. 11). Thus the magnitude of the series is governed
by the 1935 Census of Business figure for each of the trades mentioned,
and the trend of the series is that exhibited by the Retail Credit
Survey reports.




~ 4 -

were obtained through the use of rough seasonals, calculated from
Federal Reserve Board data, retail association data, and other miscellaneous sources. These sample data employed for the calculation
of monthly estimates of instalment sales varied in sales coverage and
in geographic representativeness, and some of them are naturally subject to the errors inherent in any sampling process.
The estimated series on instalment sales which we have just described were considered to represent the actual amount of credit
granted by each of the four types of retail establishments with which
we are here concerned*

There was little accurate information on aver-

age down payments and finance charges for the instalment sales of
these four retail groups; and since amounts of instalment sales and
amounts of credit granted are approximately equal for these groups,
it was decided that the instalment sale might be regarded as the
actual amount of credit granted.-/

5/ Where average down payments are 10 percent or less, and average
lengths of contract 18 months or more with typical financing charges,
the cash selling price of an article sold on instalment (i#e«, before deduction of down payment) would very likely be equal to or less
than the amount of credit granted. This observation is particularly
applicable to instalment sales by furniture and household appliance
stores. For department and jewelry stores, however, the average contract duration is shorter; in such cases the cash price of the instalment sale is greater than the amount of credit granted. Thus the
estimates for department and jewelry stores are biased upward to some
extent, and those for furniture and household appliance stores downward. The bias is not likely to be more than 4 percent either way
for any individual series. When totals are made of the four groups,
these biases are largely offset. For further discussion of this
point, see National Bureau of Economic Research (Financial Research
Program), Government Agencies of Consumer Instalment Credit, by
J. D# Ooppock (ms. 1939) Chapter VX9 p. 9.




- 5 «

Average durations of instalment indebtedness for every year
were then estimated for each type of establishment.

These estimates

were computed from yearly collection percentages -' reported to the
Retail Credit Survey; the 1937 and 1938 collection percentages, excluding down payments taken from the 1938 Retail Credit Survey, were
used as bases. Working backward, and using link relatives calculated
from collection percentages of surveys of the years preceding, we estimated collection percentages for 1929 through 1936. Through use of
the formula n * _J2 - 1, figures on duration of indebtedness were then
computed/-*

Corresponding figures for 1925, 1926, 1927 and 1928 for

all retail outlets were extrapolations based upon available data. For
furniture and household appliance stores, a two-year forward moving
average was applied to the durations of indebtedness estimated by the
regular formula, since collection percentages indicating contracts extending over 18 months or more are attributable predominantly to contracts granted in the previous year.

In these estimates for department

6/ The yearly collection percentage is the sum of the instalment collections during each month of the year divided by the sum pt the instalment amounts outstanding as of the first of each month in that
year*
7/

n - duration of indebtedness in months; cr • collection ratio.

Figures on duration of indebtedness computed from collection ratios by this formula constitute the best available indicators of the
actual time covered by the paying out of instalment accounts in these
four retail classifications. However, the use of collection percentages in such computation has its limitations as well* If we assume
no change in collection conditions or length of indebtedness, we may
conclude that a sharp rise in sales will cause a drop in the collection ratio, while a sharp drop in sales will produce a rise in the
collection ratio. This limitation has been largely offset through the
use of annual collection ratios.




•» 6.

m

stores, furniture stores, household appliance stores, and jewelry
stores, the actual duration of indebtedness, or npaying outn time,
M S accounted for largely by computation from annual collection ratios. Such ratios showed the annual effects, in statistical terms,
of prepayments, delinquencies, renewals, and repossessions upon the
volume of repayments and outstandings. The series did not reflect,
however, fortuitous monthly occurrences affecting the repayments and
outstandings columns. Having computed the durations of indebtedness
for these four retail groups, we then applied these figures to the
monthly amounts of credit granted in corresponding years to calculate
outstandings, repayments and net credit change. The procedure employed in this calculation was developed at the National Bureau.
To simplify the explanation of the method used for calculating
outstandings, let us assume a "paying-out" period of 12 months for a
given number of credit grants. Each monthly credit grant would then
be divided by 12 to produce the monthly payment due for the 12 months
following the extension of that particular amount of credit. In order
to compute outstandings as of the end of the first year, for example,
We totaled the credit grants for the 12-month period and deducted from
that sum the amount of payments made during the last eleven months on
credit extensions of that year. After the first outstandings estimate
was made, we calculated successive month-end outstandings as follows*
we obtained the difference between credit granted and repayments made
in a given month; if this difference was positive, we added the amount
of grants in excess of repayments to the outstandings for the preceding month; but if it was negative, we subtracted the decrease from
the outstandings of the preceding month*




- 7 ~

We used a breakdown of the average durations of indebtedness in
order to take account in our estimates of the short and long maturities which go to make up the average.

Thus durations of indebtedness

were split into 12*- and 24-month series for some groups, and into 12and 30-month series for others. If an average duration of indebtedness were 18 months under the 12- and 24-month series, 50 percent of
the credit grants in that year would run for 12 months, and 50 percent
for 24 months. Under a 12- and 30-month series, 67 percent of the
credit extensions would run for 12 monthst and. 33 for 30 months. Outstandings, repayments, and net credit change were calculated in the
same manner as that described in the preceding paragraph, except that
the 12- and 24-month series or 12- and 30-jnonth series for these items
8/
were summed up for each month*-'
For automobile dealers, the estimates of retail sales were those
supplied by the Automobile Manufacturers* Association

and covering

the number of new passenger cars sold each year. Likewise from the
Associations figures the ratio ^used cars sold as a percent of new
cars soldniS/ was obtained and then employed for a calculation of the
8/ The department store and jewelry store series were worked up on
the basis of 12- and 24-month distributions; 12- and 30-month distributions were used for household appliance and furniture store
series.
9/ See Automobile Facts and Figures (1939), a publication of the Automobile Manufacturers* Association. The Association^ estimates of
new cars sold are based upon reports collected monthly on new car
sales of the dealers connected with each automobile manufacturing company.
,10/ See Composite Experience of Sales Finance Companies and Automobile Dealers (1959), a publication of the National Association of
Sales Finance Companies.




- Q -

number of used cars sold, The next step was to multiply the number
of new cars and the number of usod cars sold each year by the percent
of each type sold on an instalment basis,—-» a process which yielded
the number of nev; and used cars sold on instalment • Series on the
ntjmbor of nev/ and used cars sold on instalment each month were then
computed as follows: the number of each type financed during a year
was distributed by months to conform to the number of new and used
cars financed monthly during the same year by approximately 456 sales
finance companies importing to the Bureau of the Census, Department
12/
of Commerce •~ l

The total numbers of new and used cars financed each

month were then multiplied by the average amount of note
13/
in corresponding months for both new and used cars as reported by the same
sales finance companies. The summation of these two products for each
month produced the total amounts of actual credit granted per month
on new and usod automobiles»
11/ Instalment percentages were reported in Composite Experience of
Sales Finance Companies and Automobile Dealers, These figures were
taken from annual surreys made by the National Automobile. Dealers
Association, It is to be noted that these instalment percentages
agree closely with those reported by General Motors Acceptance Corporation^
12/ See Automobile Financing, Bureau of the Census, Department of
Commerce. Approximately 456 companies reported from 1933 through
1938, In 1932, 313 companies reported, and from 1928 through 1931,
356 companies•
13/ Amount of note is the instalment sale price minus down payment
plus financing and insurance charges. In the case of used automobiles, the average amounts of note were reduced 10 percent at the
suggestion of several persons with long experience in the sales finance field* It is the practice of most sales finance companies to
buy only the better used-car paper, so that an average figure from
their used-car records would not be altogether typical.




- 9 -

Maturities in the automobile group were calculated from the figures of three large sales finance companies. These figures referred
to the actual length of contract granted.

For outstandings and repay-

ments the average length of contract for cars bought on instalment was
applied to the monthly amounts of credit granted. From this point the
procedure was the same as that described above with reference to repayments and outstandings of the other four types of retail establishments;
Since the length of contract granted in automobile transactions refers
to the number of months specified at the time of the sale, the actual
time consumed in the paying off of instalment obligations was not accounted for in the automobile dealer series. The statistical effects
of prepayments of instalment accounts, renewals of notes, delinquencies
and repossessions are therefore not reflected in the repayments and
outstandings columns of the automobile dealer series. Presumably there
would be a tendency for the estimated outstandings to acquire a downward bias when actual delinquencies and renewals exceeded prepayments,
and an upward bias when prepayments exceeded delinquencies and renewals.
Since the source data for the series covering all types of retail establishments made no allowances for purchases of instalment
paper from retailers by sales finance companies or other agencies,
the estimated outstandings must be regarded as the total amount of
consumer instalment debt arising from instalment sales by retailers.
The total outstandings are not to be considered the instalment receivables of these retailers alone; they are also the receivables of
sales finance companies, industrial banking companies, commercial
banks, and any other agencies which purchase retail instalment paper.




- 10 -

The foregoing exposition has covered the basic data and procedures employed in the calculation of the quantitative estimates of
retail instalment credit for the five principal groups of establishments.

The remaining discussion of the retail field supplements the

material just presented. Here divergences in both sources of data
and method are described for the separate types of establishments
comprising the entire retail group.

1. Dealers in New and Used Automobiles (passenger cars only)
With few exceptions these estimates were calculated according to the
procedure set forth above. Unit new-car sales data for 1925 through
1929 were taken from the new-car registration figures prepared by R. L.
Polk and Company and adjusted according to estimates made by the Automobile Manufacturers' Association. For the period 1925-27, the numbers of new and used cars financed yearly were distributed according
to the Polk figures. The average amounts of note in this period were
assumed to be the same during each month of a year. Since no monthly
average amount-of-note calculations were available for these three
years, Milan V. Ayres1 annual estimates were employed.

2.

Department Stores

Data on total department store retail sales were taken directly from
the Census for 1929, 1933, and 1935. For non-census years the Federal
Reserve Board index of department store retail sales was used for estimates of yearly sales. The instalment sales percentage for 1928 was
an extrapolation, and the percentages for 1925 through 1927 were based

14/

See footnote 9, p. 7.




-li-

on the National Retail Credit Survey published in 1930. For the periods 1929-33, and 1936-38, yearly instalment sales were distributed
by months according to the monthly instalment experience of department
store samples reporting to the Retail Credit Survey for these same
years.

For other periods, 1934-35 and 1925-28, we took the Retail

Credit Survey monthly instalment sales indices for 1929,1930, 1931,
1932 and 1933 of 33 department stores and computed them as a percent
of the monthly retail sales indices for these 33 stores during the
same years. Averages of the percent which these instalment sales indices were-of the retail sales indices for each month over the 5-year
period were then used for multiplication of the monthly Federal Reserve
retail sales indices in 1925, 1926, 1927, 1928, 1934 and 1935 to produce instalment sales indices for these same years. In the computation
of all the indices just mentioned, the average month in each year was
treated as a base (i.e., average month - 100).

3. Furniture Stores
Except for censal years, yearly estimates of retail sales by furniture
stores were worked up from diverse sources. For 1936 through 1938 figures supplied by the Market Data Section were used. For annual sales
for 1934, and for 1929 through 1932, it was assumed that 57 percent i^/
of the furniture-household appliance group sales estimated by the Market
Data Section for these years were furniture store sales. For 1924, 1927
and 1928 retail furniture sales were estimated from Federal Reserve

15/ Fifty-seven percent represents the proportion of total furniture
and household appliance store sales attributed to furniture stores alone
in the 1929, 1933 and 1935 Censuses.




- 12 -

Board
16/
data on furniture sales of department stores. The 1925 and
1936 estimates were based upon Retail Credit Survey data.
Instalment sales for 1936 through 1938 were distributed monthly
according to indices computed from Retail Credit Survey samples for
those years. For 1934 and 1935 indices, a procedure similar to that
used in the department store series was employed. In this case average ratios of monthly instalment sales indices to retail sales indices
were worked up from a sample of 15 stores reporting retail and instalment sales to the Retail Credit Survey for 1929 through 1933.
17/
These
ratios for each month were used to multiply the retail indices taken
from National Retail Furniture Association reports
18/
for 1934 and 1935:
the result was instalment sales indices for these two years. For 1932
16/ 1933,
In the
year were
1924,computed
department
stores
7 Federal
districts
and
ratios
which
thisof
time
showed Reserve
the average
reported departmental sales to their respective Federal Reserve Banks.
The 7 districts
were:between
Boston,
Chicago,
Cleveland,
Dallas, New
monthly
relationship
retail
sales
indices (1934-38)
of York,
stores
Philadelphia, and San Francisco. For 1927 and 1928, 6 of these districts reported
wasFurniture
the exception)
along with the St.
reporting
to the (Philadelphia
National Retail
Association
Louis and Richmond districts.
19/
and retail
17/ For purposes of convenience, these ratios are termed the average
monthly variations between instalment and retail sales indices.
18/ Retail Furniture Store Operating Experiences, Comptrollers1 Division, National Retail Furniture Association. Annual reports for 1934
and 1935 were used.
19/ Ibid. Annual reports for 1936., 1937 and 1938 were used as well.
Approximately 250 to 300 retail stores were represented in these annual
reports. Indices of retail sales for 1936, 1937 and 1938 agreed closely
with furniture retail sales indices for similar years reported by the
Market Data Section.




- 13 -

sales indices of department store furniture sales (1934-38) calculated
from Federal Reserve Banks _ ' reporting such sales. The Federal Reserve Banks1 department store furniture sales indices for 1932 and
1933 were multiplied by these ratios to produce retail sales indices
for these years. The retail indices so obtained were then adjusted
in the light of the monthly variation between instalment and retail
sales indices.
For the instalment sales indices for 1924 through 1931, we first
calculated a rough seasonal index of furniture store retail sales from
monthly indices (1934 through 1938) of stores reporting to the National
Retail Furniture Association. The procedure was as follows: the percentage change- in sales of these stores for each year over the previous
year was worked out and a two-year forward moving average was applied
to these percentages; dividing the results for each year by 12, we computed what was termed the average monthly change in ssles for each year;
these monthly change percentages we proceeded to multiply by 5j?9 4§,
3il% 2§, l|, |-, •§•, li|, 2TT, 3ijr, 4f, and 5-g- for January through December
respectively. Where the monthly change for a year was a decrease, the
results were subtracted from the first half-year figures and added to
the last half-year figures. The indices thus estimated for 1934 thrcugh
1938 were averaged for each month to yield the seasonal index. To this
seasonal index were added and subtracted the average amounts of monthly

20/ Approximately 200 department stores from 6 Federal Reserve districts (Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Richmond, and San Francisco) reported departmental sales to reserve banks. These data were
obtained from the International Statistical Bureau.




- 14 -

change in retail sales for the years 1924 through 1931 multiplied by
5

i"> 4i"> etc«

These average monthly changes were again calculated by a

two-year forward moving average of the percentage change in sales over
the previous year. In this case, however, where the monthly change for
a year was an increase, the results after multiplication were subtracted
from the seasonal index for the first half-year and added to the seasonal index for the last half-year.
21/
Thus retail furniture sales indices were compiled for each year of the 1924-31 period.

These indices

were then adjusted for variation between instalment and retail sales
indices to yield instalment sales indices.
4. Household Appliance Stores
Retail sales were obtained directly from Census data for 1929, 1933 and
1935. Market Data Section estimates of household appliance store sales
were used for the years following 1935, while for intercensal years 43
percent of the Market Data Section estimates of the furniture-household
appliance group sales were employed .i^!/ The 1928 retail sales figure
was an extrapolation, as was also the instalment sales percentage for
the same year. Instalment sales in 1936, 1937 and 1938 were distributed
according to the instalment sales of stores reporting to the Retail
Credit Survey in the same years. For the years 1932 through 1935, average monthly ratios of the Retail Credit Survey instalment indices
(1936-38) to the Federal Reserve Banks1 indices of department store
21/

The procedure was reversed where the monthly change was a decrease•

22/

See footnote 15, p. 11, above.




- 15 -

household appliance sales (1936-38)55/ were computed*

The monthly in-

dices of department store household appliance sales (1932, 1933, 1934
and 1935) were then multiplied by these ratios to produce instalment
indices for these years. Instalment indices for 1928, 1929, 1930 and
1931 were based upon a seasonal index of instalment sales computed
from instalment indices of the years 1932 through 1938.51/ The seasonal index was adjusted on the basis of the monthly Ghange in sales during each of the four years (1928-31) to yield the instalment indices
for these years* The 1938 collection percentage reported for household
appliance stores was adjusted on the basis of collection ratio movements for other outlets in order to offset the artificial rise in the
collection ratio caused by a very rapid decline in household appliance
sales.

5. Jewelry Stores
Census figures were used for retail sales in 1929, 1933 and 1935,
whereas Market Data Section estimates were relied upon for 1930 through
1932, 1934, and 1936 through 1938. The 1928 figure was an extrapolation, as was the instalment sales percentage for that year.
Since no reliable sample data were available for jewelry store
instalment sales, it was necessary to use monthly retail sales indices
for a distribution of instalment sales on a monthly basis. Basic to
such a distribution was the assumption that the percentage of retail
instalment sales remained constant throughout the 12 months of each

23/ See footnote 20, p. 13.
24/ The seasonal index was calculated in the same way as was the furniture retail sales seasonal index*




- 16 -

year*

The retail sales indices employed were the calculations of the

Marketing Research Division, Department of Commerce, for the years
1936, 1937 and 1938, and those of the International Statistical Bureau
for the years 1929 through 1935. The 1928 index was arrived at after
a computation of a seasonal index of retail sales from the indices of
1929 through 1938 and adjustment of the seasonal index on the basis of
the average monthly change in sales during 1938.
6

* "All Other" Stores

In the development of our estimates for "all other" stores, we used
the retail sales estimates (1929-38) of the Market Data Section for retail groups which included our "all other*1 stores. A figure on instalment sales of our "all other" stores category (reported in the 1935
Census) as a percent of total retail sales in 1935 of the Market Data
Section estimates was calculated. With this 1935 figure as a base, we
calculated similar percentage figures for 1929-34 and 1936-38 by applying the percentage change from 1935 exhibited by the combined instalment sales percentages for the 5 principal types of retail establishments. The percentages thus calculated were used as multipliers of
the Market Data Section sales estimates to produce estimates of instalment sales for the "all other" stores group. End-of-year outstandings (1929-38) were then estimated as follows: the total of instalment
sales of "all other" stores in each year was multiplied by the average
ratios for the same year's outstandings (end-of-year) to instalment
sales for the 5 principal types of retail establishments.




- 17 -

B.

CASH LOAN INSTADflENT CREDIT

General Procedure
In our estimates of cash loan instalment credit, which were on the
whole simpler to derive than those of retail instalment credit, we
have included five types of cash lending agencies - commercial banks
(personal loan departments), credit unions, industrial banking companies, personal finance companies, and unregulated lenders; and also
total figures, for all lending institutions combined, covering Title I
loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FKA). We have
developed complete annual data on credit granted, repayments, net
credit change and outstandings i^Y from 1929 through 1938 for all instalment loan operations except those of unregulated lenders and those
insured by IHA.

The series for these latter two groups cover net

credit change and outstandings, from 1929 through 1938 in the case of
unregulated lenders, and from 1934 through 1938 in the case of FHA insured loans. Monthly estimates have been compiled for the four principal cash lending agencies.
26/
The industrial banking company and
personal finance company series run monthly from 1929 through 1938
and cover credit granted, repayments, net credit change and outstandings. The commercial bank series extends monthly during the same
25/ Estimates of outstandings for personal finance companies do not
include interest charges. This type of agency computes interest due
on outstanding amounts as a separate item.
26/ Commercial banks, credit unions, industrial banking companies,
and personal finance companies.




- 18

10-year period for net credit change and outstandings, and from 1934
through 1938 for credit granted and repayments as well.

The credit

union series contains month-end outstandings during 1929-38.
The general procedure employed for these estimates may be summarized as follows:
1.

Outstandings totals as of the end of each year were
obtained for the four agencies comprising the cash
loan group.

2. Monthly outstandings Fere calculated by interpolation of the year-end outstandings totals on the
basis of sample data.
3. Ratios of monthly loans extended to outstandings
as of the end of each month v.ere calculated from
sample data.
4.

The computed monthly outstandings totals (2) were
multiplied by the ratios computed (3) to yield total monthly loans.

5. Net credit change was calculated by subtraction of
the outstandings of one month from the outstandings
of previous months.
6.

For the computation of repayments, net credit change
was subtracted from loans extended (if an increase)
or (if a decrease) added to loans made.

Characteristics and Limitations of the Data
The starting point for our calculations was outstandings in all instances but one, namely, the estimates of loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration which will be discussed below (p. 23).
Year-end complete coverage outstandings estimates compiled by the
Russell Sage Foundation
27/
for each type of cash lending agency were
used for our December estimates and for basing points from which we
27/ See Russell Sage Foundation, Consumer Credit and Economic Stability, by R. Nugent (1939).




~ 19 -

interpolated monthly outstandings figures on the basis of sample data.
To estimate outstandings monthly for a certain agency in 1930, for example, we would divide the Russell Sage Foundation's 1929 year-end
outstandings estimate by our sample 1929 year-end outstandings estimate
and multiply the sample's outstandings totals for January through December 1930 by the quotient. The computed December 1930 figure would
then be subtracted from the Russell Sage Foundation's December 1930 estimate, and the difference adjusted so that the calculated estimates
would accord with the Russell Sage Foundation's year-end figure• Thus
if the Russell Sage Foundation's December 1930 estimate were $1,200,000
larger than our computed figure, $1,200,000 would be added to our December 1930 figure, $1,100,000 to the November figure, $1,000,000 tn
the October figure, and so forth, on a pro rata scale over the entire
year.

If, on the other hand, our estimated figure were $1,200,000

larger than that of the Russell Sage Foundation, these amounts would
be subtracted instead.
Monthly estimates of loans made we calculated by multiplying the
estimated total outstandings figures by the ratios of loans made to
outstandings for the sample. It is to be noted that these figures on
loans made include renewals, which represent not new loans but merely
the refinancing of old notes. Figures on payments due likewise include
payments on renewals.
28/
28/ If an outstanding loan for $50 is renewed, $50 is added to the payments due in that month and $50 to the loans made. The result is a
rise in both loans made and payments due; outstandings, however, remain
the same.




20 -

We calculated net credit change for each month by subtracting
one month's outstandings from the previous month's outstandings (the
net credit change applying to the former month).

If the credit change

were positive, it would be subtracted from loans made of the same month
to show repayments for that month; if it were negative, it would be
added to loans made to produce repayments.
There follows a discussion of the sample data used in each cash
loan series (1) to interpolate the Russell Sage Foundation's year-end
outstandings, and (2) to calculate our totals of loans made and repayments.

In conclusion, we describe the procedure employed in the es-

timates of Title I insured loans made by all types of lending institutions combined.
1. Personal Finance Companies
Data from 18 personal finance companies reporting their month-end outstandings from 1929 through 1938 supplied the basis for interpolation
of the Russell Sage Foundation's year-end estimates of total outstandings for all personal finance companies
29/
on a monthly basis. This
29/ It is possible to estimate the amount of interest due and to become
due on outstandings totals of personal finance companies (the only type
of cash lending agency whose estimates do not include this item) through
use of the formula oi (d + 2) in which o » outstandings, c s monthly
3
'
interest rate, and d = duration of loan. See National Bureau of Economic
Research (Financial Research Program), Personal Finance Companies and
Their Credit Practices, by Ralph A. Young and Associates (1940), Chapter
I, p. 23.
If we substitute 2.8 for i, and 13 for d, interest due and to become due amounts to approximately 14 percent of estimated outstandings.
In 1938, for example, when average outstandings of personal finance companies totaled $347,600,000, interest due and to become due amounted to
approximately $48,700,000. When these two figures are added together,
it is found that total average outstandings of personal finance companies
for 1938 (including interest due and to become due) came to about
$396,300,000,




- 21 -

sample covered about 35 percent by volume of total personal finance
company outstandings, but it was too heavily weighted by the figures
of two companies. In order to counteract this bias in the sample, we
used in the summation only 10 percent of one company's outstandings totals and 50 percent of the totals for the other company. For our estimates of loans made, we multiplied our computed outstandings totals
by the ratios of monthly loans made to month-end outstandings calculated
from the figures of two large personal finance companies (accounting for
approximately 35 percent by volume of all personal finance company outstandings) .

2.

Industrial Banking Companies

Monthly estimates of outstandings for industrial banking companies were
compiled from the figures of a sample of 20 Morris Plan banks which
were used for interpolating the Russell Sage Foundation's year-end estimates. This sample covered approximately 30 percent by volume of total industrial banking company outstandings. Loans made monthly were
reported also for the same sample so that it wes possible to compute
ratios of loans made to outstandings. Total loans made monthly we derived by multiplying total estimated monthly outstandings by these ratios.

3. Commercial Banks (Personal Loan Departments)
Samples of commercial banks varying in coverage were employed as a basis
for estimates of month-end outstandings from 1934 through 1938. Our
monthly figures for 1929-34 we estimated by assuming a straight-line
movement in outstandings between year-end totals. Since month-end outstandings of commercial banks show but slight seasonal variance, the




- 22 ~

degree of error within these monthly estimates for 1954-38 should be
slight.

Eleven banks, accounting for almost 20 percent of the total

volume of cash loans extended by commercial banks, provided the data
requisite to an interpolation of the Russell Sage Foundation's outstandings figures for 1934 and 1935, and to a calculation of the volume of
loans made. Because one bank in this sample was so heavily represented,
however, only 10 percent of its figures were included in the calculations.
For 1936, 4 additional banks were added to the initial sample of
11; these 15 banks made up 25 percent of total volume of cash loans in
that year. For 1937, 7 more banks were added, so that 22 were included
in the sample. In the summation of the totals for these 7 additional
banks, only 10 percent and 50 percent of the totals of two of them were
used. The 1937 sample also accounted for approximately 25 percent of
the volume of all cash loans made by personal loan departments of commercial banks in that year*

In 1938, the figures of 8 more banks were

included, resulting In a sample composed of 30 banks. This sample contributed 25 percent of the total volume of cash loans by commercial
banks for 1938.
For the years prior to 1934, we calculated annual estimates of
loans made by applying to the ratio of loans to receivables (for 1934)
the percentage change in loans to receivables ratios for the previous
years as estimated from year-end data supplied by various banks.

4.

Credit Unions

A group of credit unions reporting monthly to the Russell Sage Foundation served as a basis for the interpolation of the Russell Sage




- 23 -

Foundation year-end outstandings totals• Loans extended annually were
calculated according to ratios of loans made to outstandings as computed
from state banking reports*
30/
5. Unregulated Lenders
The year-end outstandings totals are those of the Russell Sage Foundation.

In this instance we calculated average outstandings by averaging

year-end figures, since there were no monthly estimates by which we
might measure average outstandings.
6.

Title I Loans Insured by the Federal Housing Administration

The procedure used for estimating outstandings of notes insured by the
Federal Housing Administration was very similar to that employed for
the estimates of outstandings of retail establishments. Figures covering the actual length of contract granted on Title I FHA loans were applied to a monthly series of loans extended (1934-38)

and outstand-

ings were estimated according to the method described on page 6, abovef
Basic data for estimates of loans made monthly and of actual length of
contract granted were taken from Federal Housing Administration Annual
Reports (1934, 1935, 1936, 1937 and 1938).

For all years, approximately

80 percent of the insured Title I loans under $2,000 were considered to
have been consumer loans; this percentage accounted for all notes for
single-family residences, all notes for farm dwellings, one-half the notes
for multiple residences, and one-half "all other property" notes.
* * *

30/ Cf. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Annual Reports of the Commissioner of Banks Relating to Credit Unions, 1929-38; Wisconsin State
Banking Commission, Annual Report of Wisconsin Credit Unions, 1934-38.
Ratios computed from Massachusetts reports were used for 1929 through
1933; means of the ratios calculated from both state reports were employed for the years 1934 through 1938.
31/ No Title I notes were insured by FHA during the period from May
1937 through January 1938.




APPENDIX E
Comparison
National

the

the

Bureau's

Estimates
of

of

With

Russell

Foundation

Those
Sage




APPENDIX E

C
B
T
S

N a t i o n a
o m p a r i s o n
of
the
With
u r e a u r s
E s t i m a t e s
hose
of
the
Rusise 1 1
age
F o u n d a t i o n

TWITE a view to eliminating confusion or misunderstanding, the differences between the year-end estimates of outstanding amounts of
consumer instalment credit presented in this study and the estimates
of outstanding amounts of all consumer credit which have been developed by Rolf Nugent of the Russell Sage Foundation —-' merit brief
explanation.

These figures are shown in Table E~l«

TABLE E-l
ESTIMATES OF CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT
3Y THE NATIONAL BUREAU, AND OF TOTAL
CONSUMER CREDIT BY THE RUSSELL SAGE
FOUNDATION, 1929-37
(millions of dollars)

Year

1929
1939
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937

Estimates of Total
Estimates of Outstanding
Outstanding Amounts
Amounts of Consumer
Instalment Credit
of All Consumer Credit
(National Bureau of
(Russell Sage
Economic Research)
Foundation)
$3,212.8
2,741.9
2,235,5
1,518.1
1,616.4
1,858.9
2,564.3
3,408.7
3,783.3

#8,183
7,570
6,442
4,957
4,807
5,222
6,080
7,435
8,326

1/ Russell Sage Foundation, Consumer Credit and Economic Stability
by Rolf Nugent (New York 1939), p. 124*

- 1 -




- 2 -

To begin with, the two summary series are not directly comparable because one - the National Bureau's estimates - is confined to
the instalment segment of the consumer credit universe, while the
other - the Foundation's figures covering both instalment and open
book credit - relates to the whole of that universe.
Certain differences in the classification of the data on outstandings likewise detract from the comparability of the two sets
of estimates. The Foundation's estimates were broken down according
to four major classes of consumer credit agencies: retail merchants,
service creditors, intermediary finance agencies and cash lending
agencies. Each of these major classes was in turn divided into types.
The Bureau's estimates, on the other hand, were divided into two major
categories:

credit arising from retail sales of goods (the retail

group) and credit arising from cash loans (the cash loan group).
The Bureau's estimates for the cash loan group and the Foundation's estimates for cash lending agencies undertake to cover the
same field.

Credit unions, industrial banking companies, personal

finance companies, and personal loan departments of commercial banks
use instalment techniques almost exclusively and their receivables
represent instalment credit outstandings. The Foundation's estimates
of year-end receivables for these agencies were used, therefore, in
the construction of the Bureau's monthly estimates for lending institutions.

In the present study, however, no attempt is made to in-

clude estimates of loans .made to consumers by commercial banks which
do not operate personal loan departments or of loans made by pawnbrokers and a group of miscellaneous agencies covered in the Foundation's overall estimates.




- 3 -

The National Bureau1 s Tfretail group* covers much the same ground
as the Foundation's combined classes:

tT

retail merchants11 and "inter-

mediary financing agencies." The latter term was used by the Foundation to refer to institutions which purchase receivables arising from
retail instalment sales*

Since the Bureau1s estimates undertake to

measure all credits originating in retail instalment sales to consumers,
the receivables of agencies which purchase instalment contracts are
comprehended in its estimates. The receivables of intermediary financing agencies represent instalment credit almost exclusively, but a
substantial portion of this credit consists of grants to producers
rather than to consumers. For this reason instalment transactions relating to such items as trucks, farm implements, store fixtures and
professional equipment, which are covered in the Foundation's figures,
are not included in the Bureau1s estimates.
As for service creditors, one of the four major classes in the
Foundation's estimates, the National Bureau excludes from its calculations all credits, both open account and instalment, attributable
to this classification*

The instalment credit content in the out-

standings of service creditors is relatively slights
Finally, in the Foundation's estimates an attempt was made to
include receivables arising from manufacturers' retail sales, despite
the possibility of some duplication. No allowance is made in the
National Bureau*s estimates for instalment receivables arising from
such sales,
* * *