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F//V/1 /\fC7fX\ Z_

Week ending: June 9,1982
LIBRARY
JUN 1 4 1982

The

fun<j|s rate represents the cost of

overnight reserves to depository institutions, and is
determined by the supply and demand for reserves. The
initial impact of Federal Reserve actions is on the supply
side of the reserve market. Thus, if the initial effects of
Federal Reserve actions were the dominant factors
affecting movements in the federal funds rate, one would
expect to find rapid growth in the adjusted monetary base to
be associated with a declining federal funds rate, and slow
base growth to be associated with a rising funds rate.
Growth of the adjusted monetary base over the
past 11 months has been marked by two distinct phases.
Base growth from early July 1981 to early November 1981
was very weak, with base growing at a 1.3 percent rate from
the four weeks ending July 8 to the four weeks ending
November 4. Base growth has been much more rapid since
November, with base growing at a 9.6 percent rate from the
four weeks ending November 4, 1981, to the four weeks
ending June 9, 1982.
Nearly all of the movements in the federal funds
rate over these periods have been exactly the opposite of
what would have occurred if Federal Reserve actions were
the dominant factors affecting the federal funds rate. The
federal funds rate declined by about 500 basis points, from
early July to early November, despite the weakness in base
growth (see pages 2 and 7). From early December 1981 to
early May 1982, the federal funds rate rose, despite
continued strong growth in the adjusted monetary base.
There were only two very short periods over the
last 11 months in which the positive relationship between
base growth and movements in the federal funds rate were
not observed. These two periods encompass November and
May. In each of these periods, the federal funds rate fell
while base growth accelerated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Released: June 11, 7982

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
180

BILLIONS
175.6
176.3
176.4
176.7
177.9

_ MAY
_

1

15 29

13

27

10

24

25

8 22

OCT

9

23

6 20

3

17

4

APR
1982

NOV

28

12

26

9

23

MAY

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 9, 1982
THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONS I STS OF: ( 1 ) RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTI TUT IONS
AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS? C2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND
IN THE VAULTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS). AND ( 3 ) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR R||£REQUIREMENT RAT 10
CHANGES
THE MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT.
DATA
ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK.
A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS
AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK.

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING

6/10/81

9/9/81

11/11/81

12/9/81

1/6/82

2/10/82

3/10/82

2. 1
3. 1
4.4
5.0
5.5
5.5
6. I
6.4

2.4
4.8
5.7
6.3
6.2
6.9
7.3

10.9
10. 1
10.0
9. 1
9.5
9.7

10.7
10.3
9. 1
9.6
9.8

9. 1
8.0
8.9
9.2

7.4
8.9
9.3

8.6
9.3

4/7/82

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
11/11/81
12/ 9/81
1/ 6/82
2/10/82
3/10/82
4/ 7/82
5/12/82
6/ 9/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

11.1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

LOUIS

ADJUSTED RESERVES
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

billions of dollars

billions of

dollars

BILLIONS
APR.

■48.8
48.9
49.4
49.0

I I I I

11 1 I
OCT

NOV
1982

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

1982

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE (RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE
BANKS PLUS CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION) LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC.

ADJUSTED RESERVES
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
6/3/81

9/2/81

-2.5
-0.4
0.4
1.9
4.0
4.4
4.6
4.7

-4.9
-2.5
0.5
3.8
4.4
4.7
4.8

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

11/4/81

12/2/81

12/30/81

8.7
9.8
13.0
12.1
1 1 .0
10.3

8.9
13.4
12.2
10.9
10.0

17.0
14.3
12. 1
10.8

2/3/82

3/3/82

3/31/82

7.4
6.8

6. 1

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
END 1 NG
11/ 4/81
12/ 2/81
12/30/81
2/ 3/82
3/ 3/82
3/31/82
5/ 5/82
6/ 2/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16.0
12.3
10.6

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4
MONEY STOCK (Ml)

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
470 n---------- 1---------1—

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
------ ----------- -----------“] 470

billions.

=

APR.
MAY

449. 1
450.2
452.8
451.4
451.3

I I I I
5

19

AUG
1981

2

16

30

SEP

14

28

OCT

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

II

25

NOV

9 23

DEC

6

20

JAN

3

17

FEB

3

17

MAR

31

14

28

12

26

9

23

APR
1982

1982

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
Ml CONSISTS OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS
HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS)
AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS OF ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS PLUS TRAVELERS' CHECKS.

MONEY STOCK ( Ml )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
6/3/81

9/2/81

11/4/81

12/2/81

11.1
15.2
9.9
8.2
8.5
7.6

17.6
9.9
7.8
8.3
7.2

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

12/30/81

2/3/82

3/3/82

3/31/82

6.0
4.5

6.0

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING-.
11/ 4/81
12/ 2/81
12/30/81
2/ 3/82
3/ 3/82
3/31/82
5/ 5/82
6/ 2/82

2.4
3.5
4.6
7.0
5.6
5.2
5.7
5.3


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5.5
7.0
10.3
7.7
6.8
7.2
6.6

8.8
6.5
7.4
6.3

-2.2
2.2
2. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY MULTIPLIER is
CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK 2/
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ratio

RATIO
RATIO
APR.

21

JUN.

2.556
2! 564
2!568
2:559
2.554
2.'545

Ml MULTIPLIER

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

1982

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1 30

BILL IONS OF DOLLARS
------------------------------ 130

I------------- 1------------- 1----------------- 1------------- ----------------- --------------r-

-

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
___THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
JUNE 2, 1982 FROM
_ THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
MAR.31, 1982
-----MAR.
3, 1982
FEB.
3, 1982
_
DEC. 30, 1981

r~

r\r- r*

-

10.0

1 981

1981
1981

-----JUN.

CURRENCY

1982
APR.

28

BILLIONS

------

126.9
126:9
127.4
127:7
1 28.' 3

I II I
30

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

14 28

OCT

11

25

9 23

6 20

3

JAN

NOV

17

1111111111 12
17 31 14 28

FEB

3

26

1981
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

1982

1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK ( Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

6
YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT
22.0

PERCENT

22.0

—

21 .0

21 .0

20.0

20.0

19.0
90 DAY CD’S
18.0

18.0
PRIME BANK
LOAN RATE

17.0

16.0

15.0
14.0

14.0

CORPORATE
AAA BONDS
13.0

12.0

1 1 .0

COMMERCIAL
PAPER

10.0

I

15

29

12

26

10 24

7

Li-LULj
4 18
21

AUG

SEP

2

16 30

13 27

NOV

II

25

8 22

2

16 30

14

28

11

25

DEC
1982

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JUNE 11,

90 DAY
CD'S

1982

14.70
14.56
14.34
14.21
14.16

1 1 *
18
25

13.76
13.44
13.72
13.84

1982

PRIME
COMMERC1AL
PAPER ##*

PRIME
BANKERS'
ACCEPTANCES

CORPORATE
Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE
Baa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONDS *#

14.15
14.04
14. 10
13.81
13.69
13.65
13.32
13.23
12.94
13. 15
13.37

14.22
14. 17
14. 14
13.91
13.79
13.67
13.36
13.26
13.03
13.29
13.46

14.66
14.68
14.53
14.31
14.31
14.36
14.22
14.23
14.21
14.50
14.62

16.91
16.89
16.80
16.69
16.70
16.72
16.54
16.62
16.69
16.80
1 6.85

13.13
12.54
11.97
12.04
11.96
11.99
12.13

I*ABONDGBUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSDAY DATA.
*X* DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES.
N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

22.0

22.0

21 .0
20.0

20.0

19.0
18.0

18.0

17.0
5-YEAR
TREASURY SECURITIES
16.0

FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

14.0

DISCOUNT
RATE

10.0

3-MONTH
TREASURY BILL

1

15 29

12

26

10 24

7

21

NOV

DEC

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING: JUNE II,

1982
APR.

2
9
16
23
30
MAY
7
14
21
28
JUNE
4
1 1 *
18
25

FEDERAL
FUNDS ft*

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL

6-MONTH
TREASURY
B1LL ***

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

14.99
15.15
14.68
15.01
14.72
15.53
14.97
14.67
13.70
13.43
13.60

13.32
13. 10
12.77
12.39
12.42
12.54
12.38
11.90
11.54
12.09
12.08

13.24
12.80
12.90
12.72
12.64
12.78
12.24
12. 19
11.68
11.59
12. 12

12.76
12.69
12.59
12.38
12.30
12.29
12.11
11.83
1 1.71
12.09
12.21

1982

5-YEAR
TREASURY
SECURITIES
14.34
14.25
14.00
13.85
13.87
13.87
13.69
13.72
13.74
13.98
14.03

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES
13.56
13.50
13.18
13.07
13.12
13. 10
12.96
13.04
13.10
13.49
13.52

* AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
**
F0R WEEK END ING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN.
^5R^L£AI£t£PPEAR IN THE B0ARD 0F GOVERNORS' H.I5 RELEASE,
ww NEW I SSUt RATE
BANK OF ST. LOUIS.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

computed by the feoeral reserve

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

7

LOUIS

8
TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS^
billions of

AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

dollars

billions of dollars

PILL IONS
_ APR.
_

— JUN.

317.7
319. 1
321.5
319.5
319. 1
320.0

8

22

5

19

2

16

30

14

28

OCT

II

25

9 23

6

20

3

17

3

17

31

14

28

12

26

9 23

NOV

1981

1982

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

1982

1/ DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS

TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOS TS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
6/3/81

9/2/81

11/4/81

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

12/2/81 12/30/81

2/3/82

3/3/82

3/31/82

4.6
2.3

3.5

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
11/ 4/81
12/ 2/81
12/30/81
2/ 3/82
3/ 3/82
3/31/82
5/ 5/82
6/ 2/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1.9
3.3
4.4
7.5
5.6
5.0
5.4
4.7

6.0
7.3
1 1 .7
8. 1
7.0
7.2
6. 1

1 1.5
17.7
10.6
8.4
8.5
6.9

20.5
10.3
7.7
7.9
6.2

9.8
6.5
7.2
5.3

-5.2
0.0
-0.7

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS^
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

StASUNALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
830 c---------- 1----------1—

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
----------------------------;□ 830

billions

— JUN.

800.3
804.0
806.6
806.5
811.4
813.3

I I I I
2

16 30

M

28

11

25

9 23

6

20

JAN
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

3

3

FEB

17 31

MAR

14

28

12

26

APR

1982

1/ SAVINGS DEPOSITS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS PLUS LARGE TIME DEPOSITS

TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE,
6/3/81

9/2/81

12.4
11.3
9.5
9.3
10.2
11.1
1 1 .9
12.2

6.5
4.6
5.3
7.3
8.9
10.3
10.9

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

11/4/81

12/2/81

12/30/81

1.9
4.2
7.5
9.8
11.4
12. 1

3.6
8. 1
10.8
12.5
13.2

12.7
14.9
15.9
16. 1

2/3/32

3/3/82

3/31/82

19.5
19.2
18.6

19.2
18.5

17.9

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
11/ 4/81
12/ 2/81
12/30/81
2/ 3/82
3/ 3/82
3/31/82
5/ 5/82
6/ 2/82


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

IQ

SMALL TIME DEPOSITS 1/
COMMERCIAL BANK SAVINGS DEPOSITS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

billions of dollars

410

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
the four Weeks ending
JUNE 2, 1982 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
MAR. 31,
MAR.
3,
FEB.
3,
DEC. 30,
DEC.
2,
SEP.
2,
JUN.
3,

1982
1982
1982
1981
1981
1981
1981

400
390

25.9
26.7
25.2
20.6
16.9
18.6
20.9

380
SMALL TIME DEPOSITS

370
360
350
340
1982
APR.

BIUrlONS

330

21
320
310

JUN.

1 I I I 1 I I I I I I I 1 I I I I
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

1982
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
185

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1982
APR.

BILLIONS

180

21

175
170

SAVINGS DEPOSITS

- COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
=L_ OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF
Z

JUNE 2, 1982 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

=
Z
—
Z
—
—
Z

MAR.
MAR.
FEB.
DEC.
DEC.
SEP.
JUN.

31, 1982
3, 1982
3, 1982
30, 1981
2, 1981
2, 1981
3, 1981

-1.1
3V3
2.5
5.4
5.0
0.3
-5.9

__

—
—

LI I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 I I I I 1 I 1 I

I I 1 I

I I I I
30

14

28

11

25

9 23

6 20

4

APR

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

28

12

26

9

23

MAY

1982

1/ COMMERCIAL BANK TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN 1100,000.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
1982

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
5.0

MILLIONS
4.5

1500
1 120

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5

2.0
1.5

1.0
0.5
23

3

JAN
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 9,

6 20

FEB

17

3

17

31

14

APR
1982

28

12

26

9 23

0

MAY

1982

BUSINESS LOANS u
(COMMERCIAL AND

INDUSTRIAL)

WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 27
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
216

212
208
204
200
196

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
216

Z
—
—
Z
—

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE-S
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
JUNE 2, 1982 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING

-

Z
—
Z
—
—
_
—

MAR. 31 ,
MAR. 3,
FEB. 3,
DEC. 30,
DEC. 2,
SEP. 2,
JUN. 3,

z

1982
1982
1982
1981
1981
1981
1981

212
208

27.5
20.6
22.0
23.0
21.7
16.6
18.0

204

z
200

E
196
—

192

_

192

z

z

E

z

Z

E

188

188

184
180

184
180

z

1982
r

176

'

APR. 2 8
MAY
5
2
19
26
JUN. 2

/

=
172
r
168
0

‘lux
I

15

APR

1 1 1

29 13
MAY

111
27

10

JUN

1111
24

8

JUL

22

111

19
AUG
1981

5

i ii i -i i..i
111 1111
16 30 14 28 11 25
9 23
OCT
NOV
DEC

2

SEP

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

--LLL

.11 1

6 20

3

JAN

FEB

17

■ l.li-l
3

17

MAR

31

MILLIONS
204,322

_
~

APR
1982

MAY

JUN

1982

1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BANKERS1 ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER.
2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS OF «750 MILLION OR MORE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

11

176

206,602
172
207,023
----207,901
209,521
_Z
168
209,897
111 ii 111111 F
0
14 28 12 26 9 23

LOUIS

12
LARGE TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

ILL IONS OF DOLLARS

DOLLARS
BILLIONS.
APR.

28

5 29 13 27 10 24

8 22

5 19

2 16 30 14 28

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: JUNE 2,

25

9 23

6 20
JAN

3 17
FEB

APR

MAY

1982

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF $100,000 OR MORE.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102