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F//V/l/V£7/>1/.

0/1 T X\

Week ending: February 11, 1981
The yield curve on U.S. Treasury securities has changed
‘ and dramatically during last year. For example, from
hua¥y»1980 to March 1980, the yield curve shifted upward and became
much steeper. Then, as economic activity approached the trough in the
middle of the year, interest rates for all maturities fell. In this
instance, the decline in short-term interest rates was relatively greater
than the fall in long-term rates; as a result, the yield curve became
upward sloping. This shape gradually began to reverse as economic
activity rebounded in the second half of the year. By September the
curve was essentially flat.
The current yield curve has assumed a downward slope similar
to that of March 1980. The curve is presently steeper, however, for
maturities of 1-year or less, and flatter for longer maturities. While the
yield on 3-month Treasury securities is similar to that of last March, the
yield on 1-year securities is more than 200 basis points below the level of
last March. Yields on longer-term securities remain very close to those
of last March. Since January 1980, the yield curve has risen by 200 basis
points or more for all maturity levels.
Yields on U.S. Government Securities

March 14, 191

September IS, 1980

January IS,

5" 5

to

Ytars to Maturity

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Released: February 13, 1981

2
ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

JAN.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
170

163.4
162.7
162.7
162.0
162.2
162.5

FEB.

164

162

160
158

156

154

5

10

2

16 SO 13 27

FEB

12 26

9 23

7 21

MAR
1980

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY II,

1981

THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF: ( 1 ) MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE
BANKS. (2) CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AND IN THE VAULTS OF
COOrfEftCIAL BANKS), AND (3) AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES.
THE
MAJOR SOURCE OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT.
DATA ARE COMPUTED
■BY THIS BANK.
A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS AVAILABLE FROM
THIS BANK.

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ,
2/13/80

5/14/80

8. 1
8.9
9.7
9.4
9.7
9.5
8.5
7.5

10.5
1 1.6
10.6
1 1.0
10.5
8.9
7.6

7/9/80

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

8/13/80

9/10/80

10.8
1 1.4
10.4
8.0
6.2

9.8
9.1
6.5
4.7

10/8/80 11/12/80 12/10/80

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/ 9/80
8/13/80
9/10/80
10/ 8/80
11/12/80
12/10/80
1/14/81
2/11/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

13.7
11.5
1 1.7
10.9
8.8
7.2

10.1
6.4
4.2

3.3
1.2

-1.4

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

%

ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES 1/
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1981

BILLIONS

of

dollars

billions

45.4
46.8
46.2
46. 1
45.3
45.4

DEC.
JAN.

FEB.

I I I I
2

16 30 13 27

FEB

12 26

9 23

7 21

4

18

2

16 30

13 27

AUG

MAR

22

10 24

5

19

3 17 31

M 28 11

JAN

SEP

25

FEB

1980

1979

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4,

1981

1/ ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE LESS CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC (MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS < + ) CURRENCY HELD BY COMMERCIAL BANKS).

ADJUSTED BANK RESERVES
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

2/6/80

5/7/80

7/2/80

8/6/80

9/3/80

7.6
7. 1
9.4
9.4
8.4
10.2
7.3
6.0

4.6
9.3
9.2
7.8
10.4
6.5
4.9

13.7
12.2
9.4
12.6
7.0
4.9

17. 1
11.2
15. 1
7.6
5.0

5. 2
11.9
3.9
1.6

10/1/80

11/5/80

12/3/80

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/
1/
2/

2/80
6/80
3/80
1/80
5/80
3/80
7/81
4/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

13.3
2.5
0.0

2.5
-0.9

-11.7

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

4
MONEY STOCK (MIA)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400

BILLIONS
__ DEC

380.4
382.5
374.0
370.6

— FEB

366.9

I I I I
5

19

2

16 30 13 27

12 28

9 23

7 21

4

MAY

JUN

1979

18

2 16 30

13 27

JO 24

8 22

5

19

3 17 31

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4,

14 28 11

25

JAN
FEB
1981

1980
1981

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
MIA CONSISTS OF CURRENCY ANO COIN PLUS COMMERCIAL BANK DEMAND DEPOSITS HELD BY THE NON0ANK
PUBLIC EXCLUDING THOSE HELD BY FOREIGN BANKS AND OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS.

MONEY STOCK (MIA)
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. ,

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt

2/6/80

5/7/80

7/2/80

8/6/80

9/3/80

-0. 1
2.6
4. 1
5.2
5.9
5.8
3.6
-0.3

1 1.5
12. 1
12.4
12.2
11.2
7.2
1 .5

14.3
14.2
13.3
11.7
6.5
-0.5

13.9
12.8
10.9
4.7
-3.2

12.3
9.9
2.8
-6.0

10/1/80

11/5/80

12/3/80

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/
1/
2/

2/80
6/80
3/80
1/80
5/80
3/80
7/81
4/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

8.5
-0.2
-9.9

-6.0
-16.9

-25.0

PREPARED tY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONEY STOCK (MlB )
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

425

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
-------- ---------------------- 425

---------- .------------- 1-----BILUQNS
407.2
419. 1

— DEC.
JAN.

413.3
415. I

4 18

DEC
1979

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

2

16 30

JUN
JUL
1980

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENOING: FEBRUARY 4.

13 27

AUG

8 22

10 24

SEP

OCT

5 19

NOV

3

17 31

DEC

14 28

II

25

JAN
FEB
1981

1981

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.6 RELEASE.
M1B CONSISTS OF MIA PLUS OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL DEPOSITARY INSTITUTIONS.

MONEY STOCK (MIB)
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
2/6/80

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

5/7/80

7/2/80

8/6/80

9/3/80

14. 1
14.8
15.3
15. 1
14.0
10.8
10.6

18.2
18.0
16.9
15.0
10.6
10.5

17.3
16. 1
13.9
8.8
8.9

15.5
12.9
7.0
7.5

10/1/80

11/5/80

12/3/80

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/
8/
9/
10/
1 1/
12/
1/
2/

2/80
6/80
3/80
1/80
5/80
3/80
7/81
4/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1.9
5.0
6.5
7.7
8.5
8.4
6.7
6.9

10.9
4.3
5.4

-0.8
2.2

0. 1

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

6
YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES
AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

22.0
21.0

21.0
'RIME BANK
■ PAN RATE

20,0
19.0
18.0

17.0
16.0
15.0
M.O

13.0
12.0

CORPORATE

Aaa BONDS

11.0
ICIAL

10.0
90 DAY CD'S
9.0
8.0
MUNICI PAL
7,0

4 18

1

14 28 I I

13

MAR

23

0 23

6 20

4

10 24

18

APR

7 21

3 19

NOV

DEC

2

16 W 13 27

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENOINGi FEBRUARY 13, 1981

90 DAY
CD'S

1981
DEC.

5

12

JAN.

19
26
2

9

FEB.

16
23
30
6
13 tf
20
27

17.58
19.93
20.23
17.60
16.99
16.55
17.42
1 7.82
17.03
16.38
16.60

PRIME
COMMERCIAL
PAPER mm

PRIME
BANKERS'
ACCEPTANCES

Aaa BONDS

CORPORATE
Baa BONDS

MUNICIPAL
BONOSM

16.84
18,62
18.68
16.72
15.80
15,43
16.33
16.67
15,94
15.53
15.71

17.28
19.23
19.24
16.84
16.28
16.03
17.08
17.38
16.38
15.92
16.12

13. 15
13.47
13.49
12.89
12.83
12.59
12.76
12.92
12.98
13.07
13,28

14.84
15.21
15.36
15.19
15.09
14.93
14.96
15.08
15. 15
15.32
15.37

9.84
10.42
10.56
9.99
9.76
9.49
9.57
9.68
9.91
9.90
N. A.

CORPORATE

■ AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
„ _
Wf BOND BUYER’S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS, THURSOAY DATA,
mm DATA ARE 4-MONTH COMMERCIAL PAPER RATES.
N.A. - MOT AVAILABLE


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

0

SELECTED

INTEREST RATES

AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY

PERCENT

20.0
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

.0
.0
.0
,0
15.0

.0
.0
,0
DISCQUNT
RATE

.0
10.0

TREASURY S !cur I TIES
0
8.0
3-MONTH
TREASURY BILL

A

DEC
1979

IB

JAN

I

13 29

M 28 It

MAR

23

9 23

6 20

4

18

1

IS 29

12 26 10 24

APR

7.0

7 21

3

NOV

DEC

19

2

1980

16 30

13 27

1981

LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENOING, FEBRUARY 13, 1981

1981
DEC,

5
12
19
26
JAN.
2
9
16
23
30
FEB.
6
13 *
20
27

FEDERAL
FUNDSM
17.72
18.82
19.83
19.44
18.45
20.06
19.64
19.35
18.12
17. 19
16.51

3-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL
14.98
16.76
16.21
14.62
14.31
14.31
15. 19
15.65
15.01
14.90
15.51

6-MONTH
TREASURY
BILL W*W
14.55
15.07
15,42
14.03
13,41
13. 18
14.23
14.47
14. 12
13.74
14.43

1-YEAR
TREASURY
BILL

5-YEAR
TREASURY
SECUR1T1ES

LONG-TERM
TREASURY
SECURITIES

13.43
13.75
13.71
12.40
12.38
12.26
12.50
13.03
12.68
12.84
13.23

13.40
13.68
13.69
12.50
12.54
12.53
12.69
13.01
12.89
13. 13
13.50

12.39
12.74
12.63
11.79
1 1 .92
1 l .81
12.02
12.21
12.22
12.45
12.77

K AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE.
M* SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN.
CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ H.9 RELEASE.
iH NEW ISSUE RATE
RATES ON LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES ARE COMPUTED BY THE FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS.
TREASURY BILL YIELDS ON DISCOUNT BASIS.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

7

LOUIS

8
MULTIPLIERS is
CURRENCY OF MONEY STOCK MEASURES ^
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUS 1tD

RATIO

RATIO

RATIO
DEC.
JAN.

MONEY MULTIPLIERS

2.344
2!34

31

RAT l_£>
JAN.

FEB.
I I I I I I I I

I I I I

INI

ri I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4,

1
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
>20 ---------- 1------------- 1------

-------------------------------

-

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES
OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF
----- THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING
FEBRUARY 4. 1981 FROM
- THE FOUR W£EKS ENDING:

- DEC.
NOV.
- OCT.
SEP.

3,
5,
1,
3,

- AUG.
MAY

*

-

FEB.

1980
1980
1980
1980

3.5
4.6
6.7
7.0
-

1980
1980

CURRENCY

1981
DEC.
JAN!

I I 1 I
5 19

2

16 30 13 27 12 26
FEB
MAR

9 23

7 21
MAY

2

16 30

15 27 10 24

JUN

8 22

BILLIONS

31
7

I I 1 1 I I I I I I I I 1 I I I
5 19

3 17 31

M 28
JAN
FEB

1980
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4,

198!

1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (MIA) OR (MlB ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE
2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

120

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK (MIA)
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

■ ILL IONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
285

BILLIONS
280

263.5
265.8
257.5
254.0
250.7
250.2

— JAN.

-

FEB.

111!
5

19

2

16 30 13 27

12 26

9 23

7 21
MAY

AUG

JUN

SEP

1980
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4,
CURRENT DATA APPEAR

1981

IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS'

H.6 RELEASE.

DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK ( Ml A )
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
2/6/80

5/7/80

7/2/80

8/6/80

-3.3
-0. 1
1.9
3.5
4.4
4.4
1.4
-3.8

11.0
12.2
12.9
12.5
11.3
6.0
-1.7

15. 1
15.5
14. 1
12.2
5. 1
-4.2

16. 1
13.9
11.6
3. 1
-7.5

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:
9/3/80

10/1/80

11/5/80

12/3/80

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/
1/
2/

2/80
6/80
3/80
1/80
5/80
3/80
7/81
4/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

13.0
10.3
0.4
- 11.2

7.7
-3.7
-16.3

-10.8
-24.8

-35.0

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

9

IQ

SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SILLIOHS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
490

BILLION?
Z

DEC.
JAN.

485

481.5

480
479.9
FEB.

475
470
465
460
455

440
435

JAN

FEB

JAN

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4.

FEB

1981

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.
TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN •100,000.

SAVINGS PLUS SMALL TIME DEPOSITS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING:

2/6/80

5/7/80

7/2/80

8/6/80

9/3/8C

9.6
10.5
10.5
10. 1
10.4
1 1.0
10.4
9.6

11.8
1 1.5
10.7
1 1.0
1 1 .8
10.8
9.7

12.4
10.9
11.2
12.4
10.9
9.5

8.9
10.2
1 1 .9
10.2
8.7

10. 1
12.3
10.2
8.4

10/1/80

11/5/80

12/3/80

14.5
11.0
8.6

10.3
7.2

2.9

TO THE AVERAGE
OF FOUR WEEKS
ENDING:
7/
8/
9/
10/
11/
12/
1/
2/

2/80
6/80
3/80
1/80
5/80
3/80
7/81
4/81


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

LOUIS

BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES

billions of dollars
1981
JAN.

billions of dollars

MILkLflMS.
7

1117

I I I I
5

19

2

16 30 13 27 12 26
FEB
MAR

9 23

7 21
MAY

AUG

JUN

SEP

JAN

FEB

1980
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 11,

1981

BUSINESS LOANS
(COMMERCIAL AND

INDUSTRIAL)

WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

178

178
176
174
172
170
168

—
—
—
_

-

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA TES
OF CHANGE. AVERAGE 0 F ’
THE FOUR WEEKS END ING
FEBRUARY 4, 1981 FROM
THE FOUR WEEKS END ING:

DEC.
“ NOV.
— OCT.
— SEP.
— AUG.
-MAY

3,
5,
1,
3,
6,
7,

980
980
980
980
980
1 980

„

8.7
15.1
14.9
16.6
17.5
10.8

-

166
164

/
-

rm

-

/

198

MILLIONS

-

172,687
171,513
172,594
172,267
172,450

“
“
“
“
-

154
DEC. 31
7
14
21
28

152

148

-

Ill
DEC
1979

170
168
166
164

-

150

172

-

/A

156
-

174

-

/

-

-

176

156
154
152
150
148

III!

111

2 16 30 13
JAN
FEB

_LLL LLli.
27 12 26 9 23
MAR

APR

1 1 1

1 1 1

1 1 1 1

4 18
JUN

2 16 30 13
JUL
AUG

in. 1111
27 10 24
8 22
SEP

OCT

............................... ............... \
3 17 31 14 28 II 25
DEC
JAN
FEB

1981

1980

LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENOING: FEBRUARY 4,


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

111

1981
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

11

12

3
m
H
C
3
Z
3
o

LARGE TIME DEPOSITS
ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS
AVERAGES OF DAILY FIGURES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS
220 1—
216
216

---1981
Il_ DEC. 31

1---------

BILLIONS

nn

_

21 1 .4
216

214 -----

212 ----

14
21
28

214.0
213.4
216.6

210

208
206

212
210

“

_ 208

~

_ 206
_ 204

204

202

_ 202
200

198

_ 198

196

_

192
190

186
184

Q
m
G)
r~

O
c

<

o

CD

CO
O)
05

23

>
z

t:

o
co
H

I

200

194

r~
^
23
_ NO m
CO
CO
CO
m

'

214
/-------

B.5

Tl

m
O
m
Tl

V)

H

i

CO
H '

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DEC
1979

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

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111

JUL
1980
LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: FEBRUARY 4, 1981

AUG

1 1 1

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8 22

OCT

J_LL -LL.L1. J-L1
5 19

NOV

3 1T 31

DEC

j_lLs

14 28 II 25

JAN FEB
1981

CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE.
TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF $100,000 OR MORE.


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